Camden Property Trust (CPT) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property trust third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today for our prepared remarks are Rick Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman; and Alex Jessett, President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have Laurie Baker, Chief Operating Officer; and Stanley Jones, Senior Vice President of Real Estate Investments available for the Q&A portion of our call.

早上好，歡迎參加 Camden Property Trust 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係高級副總裁金·卡拉漢。今天與我一起發表準備好的演講的有：Camden 董事長兼執行長 Rick Campo；執行副董事長 Keith Oden；以及總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。我們也邀請了營運長 Laurie Baker 和房地產投資資深副總裁 Stanley Jones 參加電話會議的問答環節。

Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available shortly after the call ends. And please note, this event is being recorded. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs.

今天的活動將透過我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者關係版塊進行網路直播，電話會議結束後不久即可觀看回放。請注意，本次活動正在錄影。在我們開始發表準備好的演講之前，我想告知大家，我們將根據我們目前的預期和信念做出一些前瞻性陳述。

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC, and we encourage you to review them.

這些聲明並非對未來績效的保證，並且涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。有關這些風險的更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，我們鼓勵您仔細閱讀。

Any forward-looking statements made on today's call represent management's current opinions, and the company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events.

今天電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表管理層目前的意見，本公司不承擔因後續事件而更新或補充這些陳述的義務。

As a reminder, Camden's complete third quarter 2025 earnings release is available in the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and it includes reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures, which will be discussed on this call. We would like to respect everyone's time and complete our call within one hour.

提醒各位，Camden 2025 年第三季的完整收益報告可在我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者關係部分查閱，其中包括與非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表，我們將在本次電話會議上討論這些調節表。我們尊重大家的時間，爭取在一小時內完成通話。

So please limit your initial question to one then rejoin the queue if you have a follow-up question or additional items to discuss. If we are unable to speak with everyone in the queue today, we'd be happy to respond to additional questions by phone or e-mail after the call concludes.

所以請將您的初始問題限制為一個，如果您有後續問題或需要討論的其他事項，請重新加入隊列。如果今天我們無法與排隊中的每個人通話，我們很樂意在通話結束後透過電話或電子郵件回覆其他問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Ric Campo.

現在，我將把電話交給里克·坎波。

Thanks, Kim. Our on-hold music theme today was moving. This week, we completed the move of Camden's Houston corporate headquarters from Greenway Plaza to the Williams Tower in the Galleria. This is a big deal. Camden has been at Greenway Plaza for over 40 years.

謝謝你，金。今天我們電話等待音樂的主題曲很感人。本週，我們完成了 Camden 休士頓公司總部從 Greenway Plaza 搬遷至 Galleria 購物中心 Williams Tower 的工作。這是件大事。Camden在Greenway Plaza已經經營了40多年。

We are excited about moving on and the new beginnings that it will bring for 2026 and beyond. As I was leaving my office for the last time, the thought that popped in my head was don't look back. And that reminded me of a song by the classic rock band Boston. The first versus of the song captured my sentiment as I was leaving the building. Don't look back, a new day is breaking.

我們對即將開啟的新篇章感到興奮，也對2026年及以後的新開始充滿期待。當我最後一次離開辦公室時，腦海中突然冒出一個念頭：不要回頭。這讓我想起了經典搖滾樂團波士頓的一首歌。這首歌的第一段歌詞正表達了我離開大樓時的心情。不要回頭，新的一天即將到來。

It's been too long since I felt this way, I don't mind where I get taken. The road is calling today is the day. Team Camden is not looking back. We look forward to welcoming you to our new offices, and we look forward to the continued success for the next 40 years.

我已經很久沒有這種感覺了，我不在乎被帶到哪裡。道路在召喚，今天就是出發的日子。卡姆登隊不會回頭看。我們期待著您蒞臨我們的新辦公室，並期待在接下來的40年裡繼續取得成功。

Strong apartment demand continued through the third quarter, making 2025 one of the best in the last 25 years for apartment absorption, helping to fill up the record number of recent deliveries. The summer peak leasing season was met with continuing new supply, slower job growth and economic uncertainties that led apartment operators to focus on occupancy instead of rental increases earlier in the season than usual.

第三季公寓需求依然強勁，使得 2025 年成為近 25 年來公寓吸收量最好的一年，有助於填補近期創紀錄的交付量。夏季租賃旺季到來之際，新增供應持續增加，就業成長放緩，經濟情勢不明朗，導致公寓營運商比往年更早將重點放在提高入住率上，而不是提高租金。

Apartment affordability improved during the quarter with 33 months of wage growth exceeding rent growth and increased affordability improves apartment residents' ability to absorb higher rents when new apartment deliveries are leased up in 2026 and beyond.

本季公寓的可負擔性有所改善，薪資成長連續 33 個月超過租金成長，可負擔性的提高將增強公寓居民在 2026 年及以後新公寓交付出租時承受更高租金的能力。

Apartments and our shares are on sale, but not for much longer. Resident retention continues to be strong, in large part because of living excellence provided by our on-site teams. Great job, Team Camden. The case for investing in apartments is compelling. Demand is high, supply is falling to below 10-year pre-COVID averages, bringing balance back to the market.

公寓和我們的股份正在出售，但不會持續太久。住戶續住率持續保持強勁，這很大程度上歸功於我們現場團隊提供的優質生活服務。卡姆登隊，幹得漂亮！投資公寓的理由非常充分。需求旺盛，供應量下降到新冠疫情前 10 年平均以下，市場供需恢復平衡。

Rents are affordable, apartments provide flexibility and mobility to residents. Rent versus buy economics favor renting more than ever. And demographic and migration trends both support new demand going forward. We look forward to moving to a stronger growth profile after the excesses of post-COVID supply environments end.

租金實惠，公寓為居民提供了靈活性和便利性。從租房與買房的經濟角度來看，租房比以往任何時候都更有利。人口結構和移民趨勢都為未來的新需求提供了支持。我們期待在新冠疫情後供應過剩的局面結束後，能夠實現更強勁的成長。

Camden is positioned well with one of the strongest balance sheets and no major dilutive refinances over the next couple of years. Private market sales of apartments have been robust with cap rates for high-quality properties landing in the 4.75% to 5% range. And there is a clear disconnect between private and public market values for apartments.

Camden 擁有最強勁的資產負債表之一，並且在未來幾年內不會進行重大稀釋性再融資，因此處於有利地位。私人公寓市場銷售強勁，優質房產的資本化率在 4.75% 至 5% 之間。公寓的私人市場價值和公共市場價值之間存在明顯的脫節。

In the quarter, we bought back $50 million of our shares at a significant discount to consensus net asset value. If market conditions remain at current levels, we will continue to buy the stock, and we have $400 million remaining in our authorization. This can be funded through dispositions of our slowest growing higher CapEx properties.

本季度，我們以遠低於市場普遍預期淨資產值的價格回購了價值 5,000 萬美元的股票。如果市場狀況維持在當前水平，我們將繼續購買股票，我們將有 4 億美元的授權額度。這可以透過處置我們成長最慢、資本支出最高的資產來籌集資金。

I want to give a big shout out to Team Camden for their steadfast commitment to improving the lives of our teammates, our customers and our stakeholders, one experience at a time.

我要特別感謝卡姆登團隊，感謝他們始終如一地致力於改善我們團隊成員、客戶和利害關係人的生活，一次又一次地提升他們的體驗。

Thank you. And next up is Keith Oden.

謝謝。接下來是基斯·奧登。

Thanks, Rick. Camden's third quarter 2025 operating results were in line with our expectations with same-store revenue growth of 0.8% for the quarter up 0.9% year-to-date and up 1% sequentially. Occupancy for the quarter averaged 95.5%, consistent with third quarter of 2024, and down slightly from 95.6% last quarter.

謝謝你，里克。Camden 2025 年第三季的經營業績符合我們的預期，同店營收成長 0.8%，較去年同期成長 0.9%，較上季成長 1%。本季平均入住率為 95.5%，與 2024 年第三季持平，略低於上季的 95.6%。

Year-to-date through September, occupancy has averaged 95.5% versus 95.3% last year. Rental rates for the third quarter had effective new leases down 2.5% and renewals up 3.5%. Our blended rate growth was 0.6% declining 10 basis points from last quarter and 40 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2024.

今年截至9月份，平均入住率為95.5%，而去年同期為95.3%。第三季租金數據顯示，新租約實際下降 2.5%，續約實際上升 3.5%。我們的綜合利率成長率為 0.6%，比上一季下降了 10 個基點，比 2024 年第三季下降了 40 個基點。

Our preliminary October results reflect typical seasonality and a moderation in both pricing and occupancy as we move into our slower leasing season during the fourth and first quarters. Renewal offers for December and January were sent out with an average increase of 3.3%.

我們10月份的初步業績反映了典型的季節性因素，隨著我們進入第四季度和第一季的租賃淡季，價格和入住率均有所下降。12月和1月的續約報價平均上漲了3.3%。

Turnover rates across our portfolio remain 20 basis points to 30 basis points below last year's levels and move-outs attributed to home purchase were a record low of 9.1% this quarter. Moving into new office space is never easy, especially when it involves five floors and several hundred corporate team members. But the end result was definitely worth a significant amount of time and effort invested by our design and special projects team.

我們投資組合的周轉率仍比去年同期水準低 20 至 30 個基點，而因購屋而搬離的房屋數量在本季創下 9.1% 的歷史新低。搬入新的辦公室從來都不是一件容易的事，尤其是當它涉及五層樓和數百名公司團隊成員時。但最終的結果絕對值得我們的設計和特殊專案團隊投入的大量時間和精力。

Our new headquarters look amazing. A big shout out to Venmills, Chrissy Hopper, Luther Alanis, Kevin Neely, Amy Funk, Zev Malone, Teresa Watson, Blake Robinson, Pango, Derek, Aaron and the entire IT support team. And finally, we want to give a special thanks to Camden's team of executive assistance on a job incredibly well done. We can't wait for everyone to get a chance to visit.

我們新的總部看起來棒極了。特別感謝 Venmills、Chrissy Hopper、Luther Alanis、Kevin Neely、Amy Funk、Zev Malone、Teresa Watson、Blake Robinson、Pango、Derek、Aaron 以及整個 IT 支援團隊。最後，我們要特別感謝卡姆登的行政助理團隊，他們也出色地完成了這項工作。我們迫不及待地想讓每個人都有機會來參觀。

I'll now turn the call over to Alex Jessett, Camden's President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在我將把電話交給卡姆登總裁兼財務長亞歷克斯·傑塞特。

Thanks, Keith, and good morning. I'll begin today with an update on our recent real estate activities. -- then move on to our third quarter results and our guidance for the remainder of the year. This quarter, we disposed of three older communities for a total of $114 million. Two of the three disposition communities were located in Houston and the third in Dallas.

謝謝你，基思，早安。今天我將首先報告我們近期的房地產業務進展情況，然後介紹我們第三季度的業績以及對今年剩餘時間的業績展望。本季度，我們處置了三個老舊社區，總收益為 1.14 億美元。三個處置社區中有兩個位於休士頓，第三個位於達拉斯。

These disposition communities were on average 24 years old. These older, higher CapEx communities were sold at an average AFFO yield of approximately 5%. We used the proceeds in part to repurchase approximately $50 million of our shares at an average price of $107.33 and which represents a 6.4% FFO yield and a 6.2% cap rate.

這些安置社區平均已有 24 年歷史。這些較老、資本支出較高的社區出售時，平均調整後營運資金收益率約為 5%。我們將部分收益用於以平均每股 107.33 美元的價格回購約 5,000 萬美元的股份，這相當於 6.4% 的 FFO 收益率和 6.2% 的資本化率。

During the quarter, we stabilized Camden Durham and completed construction on Camden Village District both located in the Raleigh-Durham market of North Carolina. Additionally, we continue to make leasing progress on Camden long [meta] farms, one of our two single-family rental communities located in suburban Houston.

本季度，我們穩定了 Camden Durham 項目，並完成了 Camden Village District 的建設，這兩個項目都位於北卡羅來納州的羅利-達勒姆市場。此外，我們在 Camden long [meta] farms 的租賃方面也繼續取得進展，這是我們在休士頓郊區的兩個單戶住宅租賃社區之一。

At the midpoint of our guidance range, we are now anticipating $425 million of acquisitions and $450 million of dispositions for the full year, reduced from our prior guidance of $750 million in both acquisitions and dispositions. This implies an additional $87 million in acquisitions and an additional $276 million in dispositions in the fourth quarter.

在我們預期範圍的中點，我們現在預計全年收購額為 4.25 億美元，處置額為 4.5 億美元，低於我們先前對收購和處置總額均為 7.5 億美元的預期。這意味著第四季將新增 8,700 萬美元的收購額和 2.76 億美元的資產處置額。

Turning to financial results. Last night, we reported core funds from operations for the third quarter of $186.8 million or $1.70 per share, $0.01 ahead of the midpoint of our prior quarterly guidance, driven primarily by the combination of higher fee and asset management income and lower interest expense resulting from the timing of capital spend and lower floating rates.

接下來來看財務業績。昨晚，我們公佈了第三季核心營運資金為 1.868 億美元，即每股 1.70 美元，比我們之前季度預期的中點高出 0.01 美元，這主要得益於手續費和資產管理收入的增加，以及資本支出時間和浮動利率下降帶來的利息支出減少。

Property revenues were in line with expectations for the third quarter. We are pleased with how well our property revenues are performing considering the peak lease-up competition we are facing across many of our markets, illustrating the significant depth of demand in the Sun Belt, and we did adjust our full year 2025 outlook for same-store revenue growth from 1% to 75 basis points, and property expenses continue to outperform, particularly property taxes coming in well below our forecast once again.

第三季房地產收入符合預期。考慮到我們在許多市場面臨的租賃競爭白熱化，我們對物業收入的良好表現感到滿意，這表明陽光地帶的需求非常旺盛。我們將 2025 年全年同店營收成長預期從 1% 調整為 75 個基點，物業支出持續表現優異，尤其是物業稅再次遠低於我們的預期。

As a result, we are decreasing our full year same-store expense midpoint from 2.5% to 1.5%. And maintaining the midpoint of our full year same-store net operating income growth at 25 basis points. Property taxes represent approximately one third of our operating expenses and are now expected to decline slightly versus our prior assumption of increasing approximately 2%.

因此，我們將全年同店支出中點從 2.5% 下調至 1.5%。並將全年同店淨營業收入成長的中點維持在 25 個基點。房產稅約占我們營運支出的三分之一，目前預計將略有下降，而我們先前預計房產稅將成長約 2%。

This is primarily driven by favorable settlements from prior year tax assessments and lower rates and values primarily from our Texas and Florida markets. For the fourth quarter, we are assuming occupancy will be in the range of 95.2% to 95.4%. Blended lease trade-out will be down approximately 1% and bad debt will be approximately 60 basis points with then 10 basis points of our pre-COVID levels.

這主要是由於前一年的稅務評估結果有利，以及德州和佛羅裡達州市場的稅率和價值下降所致。我們預計第四季入住率將在 95.2% 到 95.4% 之間。混合租賃置換將下降約 1%，壞帳將下降約 60 個基點，比新冠疫情前的水準低 10 個基點。

Almost entirely as a result of the decreased transactional activity anticipated in the fourth quarter combined with lower floating rate interest expenses, we are increasing the midpoint of our full year core FFO guidance by $0.04 per share from $6.81 to $6.85. This is our third consecutive increase to our 2025 core FFO guidance and represents an aggregate $0.10 per share increase from our original 2025 guidance.

由於預計第四季度交易活動將減少，加上浮動利率利息支出降低，我們將全年核心FFO預期中位數從每股6.81美元上調至6.85美元，上修幅度為每股0.04美元。這是我們連續第三次上調2025年核心FFO預期，較最初的2025年預期累計上調0.10美元。

We also provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter. We expect core FFO per share for the fourth quarter to be within the range of $1.71 to $1.75, representing a $0.03 per share sequential increase at the midpoint, primarily resulting from the typical seasonal decreases in property operating expenses, favorable final property tax valuations and rates and lower interest expense, partially offset by the impact of our anticipated fourth quarter net dispositions.

我們也提供了第四季度的獲利預期。我們預計第四季度核心FFO每股收益將在1.71美元至1.75美元之間，中點值較上一季度環比增長0.03美元，主要原因是物業運營費用的季節性下降、有利的最終物業稅估值和稅率以及較低的利息支出，但部分被我們預期的第四季度淨處置的影響所抵消。

Noncore FFO adjustments for 2025 are anticipated to be approximately $0.11 per share and are primarily legal expenses and expense transaction pursuit costs. Our balance sheet remains incredibly strong with net debt-to-EBITDA at 4.2 times.

預計 2025 年非核心 FFO 調整約為每股 0.11 美元，主要包括法律費用和交易追索費用。我們的資產負債表依然非常穩健，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 4.2 倍。

We have no significant debt maturities until the fourth quarter of 2026 and no dilutive debt maturities until 2027. Additionally, our refinancing interest rate risk remains the lowest of the peer group, positioning us well for outsized growth.

在 2026 年第四季之前，我們沒有重大債務到期；在 2027 年之前，我們沒有稀釋性債務到期。此外，我們的再融資利率風險仍然是同業中最低的，這使我們能夠實現超額成長。

At this time, we will open the call up to questions.

此時，我們將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citi.

（操作說明）埃里克·沃爾夫，花旗銀行。

Thanks for taking, my question. I was just wondering if you could provide any early thoughts on 2026 in terms of the building blocks earning -- any thoughts on other income or whatever else you can share about how you how you're thinking about 2026 at this stage?

謝謝您回答我的問題。我只是想問您能否就 2026 年的收入基礎方面提供一些初步想法——關於其他收入來源或其他任何您能分享的關於您目前對 2026 年的看法？

Yeah, so certainly, we're not giving guidance for 2026 quite yet. What I will tell you is the earn-in for us is probably going to be pretty much flat, which is going to be consistent with the earn-in that we had for 2025. Everything else we will give you when we have our next earnings release. But I will tell you, if you look at just the broad environment and what's going to be happening in 2026, it certainly does shape up much better than we saw in '25 in terms of uncertainty that's out there.

是的，所以目前我們當然不會給 2026 年的指導。我可以告訴你們的是，我們的收益可能會基本持平，這與我們 2025 年的收益預期一致。其他所有資訊我們將在下次發布財報時提供給您。但我可以告訴你，如果你只看大環境以及2026年將要發生的事情，就目前存在的不確定性而言，它肯定比2025年的情況要好得多。

If you think about when we were going through 2025, obviously, there was a tremendous amount of uncertainty around tariffs, around taxes, et cetera, most of that should be worked out as we go through 2026. The other thing that we think about is a significant amount of multifamily supply that was absorbed in 2025 that we will not have to absorb in 2026.

如果你回顧我們展望 2025 年的時候，顯然，關稅、稅收等方面存在著巨大的不確定性，其中大部分問題應該會在 2026 年解決。我們考慮的另一件事是，2025 年吸收的大量多戶住宅供應量，在 2026 年將不再需要吸收。

So I said, we don't give any guidance, but if you're an optimistic person, there's certainly things to be optimistic about when we look at next year.

所以我說，我們不提供任何指導，但如果你是一個樂觀的人，那麼展望明年，肯定有一些值得樂觀的事情。

James Feldman, Wells Fargo.

詹姆斯‧費爾德曼，富國銀行。

Great, thank you. You talked about the public-private disconnect around apartment valuations. I was hoping to get your thoughts on the current broader appetite for investment in apartments from private investors, -- especially for groups that can write the really big checks, given the growing concerns on jobs, immigration, the government's focused on fixing the housing market -- and are there any specific markets that stand out in terms of more interest, less interest or even from your end, more concerned or less concerned given the macro overlay.

太好了，謝謝。你談到了公寓估值方面公私部門脫節的問題。我希望了解您對當前私人投資者對公寓投資的整體興趣的看法——特別是那些能夠開出巨額支票的團體，考慮到人們對就業、移民以及政府致力於解決住房市場的日益關注——以及是否存在一些特定的市場，在宏觀經濟因素的影響下，表現出更高的興趣、更低的興趣，或者甚至從您的角度來看，更關注或更不關注。

So the first thing I'll tell you is there remains robust demand for multifamily. In fact, if you look at the amount of dry supply -- or excuse me, dry powder that is there by asset class, multifamily absolutely leads all asset classes. And so everybody is looking for assets. The challenge is, there's just not a lot out there. Stanley, I don't know if you want to point on this.

首先我要告訴大家的是，多戶住宅的需求依然強勁。事實上，如果你看一下各類資產的可用資金量——或者更確切地說，是待售資金量，那麼多戶住宅絕對領先於所有資產類別。所以大家都在尋找資產。問題在於，市面上這類資源實在太少了。史丹利，我不知道你是否想就此發表意見。

Sure, Alex. Just a little bit of additional color on the current transaction environment. Like Alex said, the market is healthy. There's a ton of debt and equity capital available there's really good bid depth and on a really strong liquidity in the market. So with respect to volumes, 2025, was trending about the same as 2024, but still well below pre-COVID levels, which is, to some extent, being driven on lenders continuing to modify and extend loans.

當然可以，亞歷克斯。為當前的交易環境增添一些色彩。正如亞歷克斯所說，市場狀況良好。目前有大量的債務和股權資本可供使用，競購深度非常強，市場流動性也非常足夠。因此，就貸款量而言，2025 年的趨勢與 2024 年大致相同，但仍遠低於新冠疫情前的水平，這在一定程度上是由於貸款機構繼續修改和延長貸款所致。

So no meaningful distress in the market. And from a pricing standpoint, cap rates have really stabilized over the last few quarters with cap rates for Class A assets in our markets in the 4.5% to 5% range. and in the Class B space in the 5% to 5.5% range.

因此，市場並未出現實質的動盪。從定價角度來看，過去幾季資本化率確實趨於穩定，我們市場上 A 類資產的資本化率在 4.5% 到 5% 之間，B 類資產的資本化率在 5% 到 5.5% 之間。

Let me add to that, that there's probably -- there's definitely been more sales on the coast than there have been in the Sun Belt. And the reason being that clearly us revenues, you can predict in terms of positive growth easier than can Sunbelt, given the supply issues that we've been facing there.

我還要補充一點，沿海地區的銷售量肯定比陽光地帶的銷售量高。原因很明顯，鑑於我們在 Sunbelt 面臨的供應問題，我們可以比 Sunbelt 更容易預測美國的收入將實現正增長。

And when you think about sellers, the seller in the Sunbelt is looking at the market saying we do know that supply and demand will be in balance. The question is when. And so there is a -- to Stanley's point, the lenders are not pressing people to sell.

而當你想到賣家時，陽光地帶的賣家會看著市場說，我們知道供需將會達到平衡。問題是何時。所以，正如史丹利所說，貸款方並沒有強迫人們出售房產。

So why would you sell into a market when underwriting future growth is more difficult today just because of what's going on in the marketplace. So there's less transaction volume in the Sun Belt. I think what's going to happen, however, there will be a pivot and that pivot will probably happen sometime in, I would guess, mid-'26 and you'll have a combination of lenders finally saying, all right, we've extended.

既然由於市場現狀，如今預測未來成長變得更加困難，為什麼還要在這樣的市場環境下進行銷售呢？因此，陽光地帶的交易量較小。但我認為接下來會發生的是，市場將會出現轉變，我估計這種轉變可能會在 2026 年年中發生，屆時貸款機構最終會說，好吧，我們已經延長了貸款期限。

Now you need to do something. So that's going to put pressure on sellers to sell. But at the same time, once you get to the middle of '26, based on Alex's discussion a minute ago, you should have a more constructive environment, and it should be easier than for people to look out into '27 and '28 and see a very robust rental growth scenario given the supply dynamics that we have today.

現在你必須做點什麼了。這樣一來，賣家就會面臨出售的壓力。但同時，根據 Alex 剛才的討論，到了 2026 年年中，環境應該會更加有利，人們也更容易展望 2027 年和 2028 年，並考慮到我們目前的供應動態，看到一個非常強勁的租金增長前景。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克雷默，摩根士丹利。

Great, thanks for the time here. I just wanted to ask about sort of how you see the fourth quarter shaping up relative to normal seasonality. I think one of your peers talked about a sort of a relatively normal 4Q, maybe even a little bit better than normal seasonality in the fourth quarter. I think that was a little bit of a stride, just given some of the headlines and some of that is a little bit sensational out there.

太好了，謝謝你抽出時間。我只是想問一下，您認為第四季相對於正常的季節性情況會如何發展。我認為你們的一位同行談到了相對正常的第四季度，甚至可能比往年第四季的季節性表現還要好一些。我覺得這算是一個小小的進步，考慮到一些新聞標題，其中一些內容確實有點聳人聽聞。

But just wondering, within your portfolio with absorption data that actually, I think, still looks pretty good for the Sunbelt and even internationally, how do you see the fourth quarter shaping up in terms of lease spreads relative to typical seasonality.

但我想問的是，就您的投資組合而言，其吸收數據實際上（我認為）對於陽光地帶甚至國際市場來說仍然相當不錯，您認為第四季度的租賃價差相對於典型的季節性情況會如何變化？

Yeah, so the first thing I'll tell you is, if you think about our portfolio, and it's important before we talk about the fourth quarter to go back and look at the third quarter, if you look at the deceleration that we saw from 2Q '25 to 3Q '25 on a blended rate, it was only 10 basis points. I think that's the lowest deceleration in the space. And what that tells you is that we're starting to get some footing here in the Sunbelt markets.

是的，首先我要告訴你們的是，如果你考慮一下我們的投資組合，在討論第四季度之前，回顧一下第三季度很重要，如果你看一下我們從 2025 年第二季度到第三季度綜合利率的減速幅度，只有 10 個基點。我認為這是該空間中最低的減速度。這說明我們在陽光地帶市場開始站穩腳步了。

When we go into the fourth quarter, what we're anticipating and what I said in the prepared remarks is that we think our blend will be down about 1%. If you sort of think about that on a typical seasonality basis, this sort of is what you see in the fourth quarter.

進入第四季度，我們預計（正如我在準備好的發言稿中所說），我們的混合比例將下降約 1%。如果從典型的季節性角度來考慮，這大致就是第四季的情況。

And this year, now we did sort of hit the slower leasing period one month earlier than we typically would, but the fourth quarter is shaping up like a traditional fourth quarter.

今年，租賃淡季比往年提前了一個月到來，但第四季的情況與傳統的第四季類似。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Great, thanks. Kind of going back and piggybacking on the last question, I mean, so with this sort of reacceleration now in lease rate growth, would you expect that to just carry into the early part of next year and into the spring leasing season based on what's going on in the fourth quarter versus what you expect -- what you saw in the third quarter?

太好了，謝謝。算是回到上一個問題，我的意思是，鑑於目前租賃價格增長的這種重新加速，根據第四季度的情況以及你對第三季度情況的預期，你是否認為這種增長勢頭會延續到明年年初和春季租賃旺季？

And then just also -- so is it occupancy that's the driver of that 25 basis points decrease to 2025 same-store revenue growth guidance?

還有一點——入住率是導致 2025 年同店營收成長預期下調 25 個基點的原因嗎？

So Austin, thanks again for the '26 guidance question. We're not going to answer '26 guidance questions quite yet. But what I will tell you is -- the main driver that we saw in the reduction, which is a very minor reduction in top line revenue growth, was an occupancy driven.

奧斯汀，再次感謝你提出的關於 2026 年指導的問題。我們暫時還不會回答 26 年的指導性問題。但我可以告訴你們的是——我們看到的收入成長略有下降，而收入下降的主要原因是入住率下降。

It was rate driven, and that is because we were making sure that we could get the occupancy to the level that we felt comfortable for going into the fourth quarter. And in order to do that, we didn't have to drop rental rates slightly.

這是由入住率驅動的，因為我們要確保入住率能夠達到我們認為在第四季度開始時可以接受的水平。為了做到這一點，我們並不需要稍微降低租金。

I think, yeah, the key takeaway that we're going to give you for 2026 is based on Alex's answer the question maybe two questions ago. And then there should be less uncertainty in 2026. And the uncertainty that we have today, we know that tax reform is off the table, we know inflation is coming down.

我認為，是的，我們將要向大家傳達的關於 2026 年的關鍵訊息是基於 Alex 在大約兩個問題之前的回答。那麼到了2026年，不確定性應該會減少。而我們今天面臨的不確定性是，我們知道稅制改革已被擱置，我們也知道通貨膨脹正在下降。

We know that Federal Reserve's lowering rates and we know that there's a midterm election coming, which means that the administration is going to do whatever they can to make sure the economy is good in November of 2026.

我們知道聯準會正在降低利率，我們也知道即將舉行中期選舉，這意味著政府將竭盡所能確保2026年11月經濟狀況良好。

The big tariff debates will likely be less of a debate during that period for all the obvious political reasons. And we have a 25% reduction in new deliveries in Camden's markets. And so -- with all that said, generally speaking, when you have a midterm election in this environment, you're going to have a -- unless something really comes off the rails, it should be a reasonable environment to improve demand and to create more optimistic scenario in 2026. Now obviously, there could be lots of slips that change that, but we'll see.

出於顯而易見的政治原因，在此期間，關於關稅的重大爭論可能會減少。卡姆登市場的新交付量減少了 25%。因此——綜上所述，總的來說，在這種環境下舉行中期選舉，除非出現什麼真正的變故，否則應該會是一個合理的環境，可以改善需求，並為 2026 年創造一個更樂觀的局面。當然，可能會出現很多意外情況改變這個結果，但我們拭目以待。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore Inc.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore 公司

Thanks. Good morning, Rick, I guess going back to your question about the disconnect between public and private, I guess, how big are you willing to lean into that on the share buyback and do dispositions. There hasn't been many very large buybacks in the REIT space. And typically, they haven't been overly success, but I'm just curious, how much would you lean into this size-wise?

謝謝。早安，瑞克，我想回到你關於公私部門脫節的問題，我想，你願意在股票回購和處置方面投入多大的力度？REIT領域並沒有很多大規模的股票回購。通常來說，它們並沒有取得太大的成功，但我只是好奇，從尺寸上看，你會在多大程度上傾向於這種風格？

Well, the -- if you go back in history, in the -- leading up to the bubble and the tech rec in 2000, we bought 16% of the company back at that point. We could sell properties on Main Street for $0.75 or for $1, and we could buy our stock back for $0.75 on the dollar.

嗯，如果你回顧歷史，在泡沫經濟和 2000 年科技股暴漲之前，我們當時回購了公司 16% 的股份。我們可以以每美元 0.75 美元或 1 美元的價格出售主街上的房產，也可以以每美元 0.75 美元的價格回購我們的股票。

Right now, with the current stock price today, it's a 30% discount to consensus NAV. It's a mid-6% cap rate. And the market today is a 4.5% to 5% cap rate. So with simple math, that's a 150 basis points to 200 basis points positive spread to sell an asset and buy stock.

以目前的股價計算，該股較市場普遍預期的淨資產值折讓 30%。資本化率約為 6%。而目前市場的資本化率則在 4.5% 到 5% 之間。簡單計算一下，賣出資產買進股票的價差為 150 到 200 個基點。

And we've always said that we would allocate capital in this way if we had a significant discount, I think 30 is pretty significant. And it was persistent, meaning that we had enough time to be able to sell assets to fund the buybacks. We will not increase leverage to do that.

我們一直都說，如果我們有相當大的折扣，我們就會以這種方式分配資金，我認為 30 的折扣相當大了。而且這種情況持續存在，這意味著我們有足夠的時間出售資產來籌集資金進行股票回購。我們不會透過增加槓桿來實現這一點。

And it's very typical capital allocation model. And over the last maybe seven or eight years, we've had opportunities to buy stock back, but it's never lasted long enough and with the constraints that we have on how much we can buy in a day and that kind of thing.

這是非常典型的資本配置模型。在過去的七、八年裡，我們曾有機會回購股票，但機會總是持續時間不夠長，而且我們每天可以買的股票數量也有限制等等。

The opportunity is not lasted long enough to actually make a material difference. Today, we'll see how long it lasts, and we're going to lean in pretty well.

機會持續時間太短，不足以產生實質的影響。今天，我們將看看這種情況能持續多久，我們會全力以赴。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

Good morning, thanks for taking my questions. (technical difficulty) Can you talk a little bit about the impact of direct supply? And if there's any way to quantify how that will prove like, for example, are you able to provide how much of your portfolio is directly competing with supply -- now how does that compare to last year? And if there's an anticipated figure for next year? thanks.

早上好，謝謝您回答我的問題。（技術難題）您能談談直接供應的影響嗎？如果有什麼方法可以量化結果，例如，您能否提供您的投資組合中有多少是直接與供應競爭的——現在與去年相比情況如何？如果對明年的數據有所預期呢？謝謝。

So you -- I didn't hear the first part of your question. You said direct supply?

所以你——我沒聽到你問題的第一部分。你說的是直接供貨？

How much of your portfolio is directly competing with some new supply.

你的投資組合中有多少部分與新增供應直接競爭？

Yeah, so every part of our portfolio is directly competing with delivered supply. So we're in the -- between last year and this year going into 2026, we're going to see the highest number -- the largest number of supply across Camden's portfolio in the last 45 years. So it's pervasive. Obviously, some places are better than others, but all -- everyone is dealing with some level of supply.

是的，所以我們產品組合中的每個部分都在與現有供應直接競爭。因此，從去年到今年，再到 2026 年，我們將看到 Camden 旗下房產組合在過去 45 年中供應量最高。所以它非常普遍。顯然，有些地方的情況比其他地方好，但所有地方——每個人都面臨著一定程度的供應問題。

The highest two markets -- in our world, for supply and the impact thereof or Austin and Nashville. And to various degrees, all of our markets are dealing with some level of oversupply. California would probably be at the very far end of the range, but still there's supply issues and supply that we're having to deal with there. So to one degree or another, every market has been impacted.

在我們這個世界裡，奧斯汀和納許維爾是供應和影響最大的兩個市場。而且，我們所有的市場都不同程度地面臨供應過剩的問題。加州可能處於範圍的最遠端，但那裡仍然存在供應問題，我們必須應對這些問題。因此，每個市場都受到了不同程度的影響。

The good news is as Rick mentioned, we're likely getting going to see a 25% decline in deliveries next year. If we continue to see good demand that has continued across our platforms. incrementally, it should be better in terms of the absorption making a difference for our ability to push rents and maintain occupancies.

好消息是，正如里克所提到的，我們明年很可能會看到交付量下降 25%。如果我們繼續看到各個平台的需求持續旺盛，並且這種勢頭能夠逐步增強，那麼在吸納量方面應該會有所改善，從而有助於我們提高租金和維持入住率。

When we look at specific assets that are younger, that are directly in submarkets where there is a tremendous amount of new supply we are seeing significant improvements on that. Last year when we first started talking about this number, we said that about 20% of all of our assets were directly competing with new supply, thanks to the record level of absorption that we've seen in '25.

當我們觀察一些較新的資產，特別是那些位於新供應量龐大的細分市場中的資產時，我們發現這些資產的情況有了顯著改善。去年我們首次談到這個數字時，我們曾表示，由於 2025 年創紀錄的吸收量，我們所有資產中約有 20% 直接與新供應競爭。

The good news is that number is down to 9% of our portfolio today. And that's just going to continue to improve as we go through '26 and into '27.

好消息是，目前這一比例已降至我們投資組合的 9%。而且這種情況會隨著我們進入 2026 年和 2027 年而繼續改善。

I think the other thing you have to think about in -- and I'll just use an example like Austin, which is like the poster child or poster city for excess supply. So in Austin, even the suburban properties that are older and kind of B properties in good locations, are all feeling the supply pressure.

我認為你還需要考慮另一件事——我舉個例子，例如奧斯汀，它就像是供應過剩的典型代表或典型城市。因此，在奧斯汀，即使是那些位於地段較好、較老舊的郊區房產，也都感受到了供應壓力。

And the reason it's not that they're so competitive with the new supply. It's just that consumers in Austin read the paper every day, saying apartment rents are coming down, and they expect to deal -- and so you have a consumer sentiment issue in some markets like Austin, Nashville, and a couple of others.

原因並非是它們與新供應商之間存在著強烈的競爭力。只是奧斯汀的消費者每天都會看報紙，報紙上說公寓租金正在下降，他們希望能夠達成交易——因此，像奧斯汀、納許維爾和其他一些市場有消費者信心問題。

And where the consumers, even though there's not as much competition in the suburban B properties, the consumer has this mindset that they have to get a discount and then that just kind of feeds into the market and you end up with a market that -- where you can't actually raise rents because of that sentiment. Once that you have that pivot point, it changes dramatically.

即使郊區 B 類房產的競爭沒有那麼激烈，消費者仍然抱持著必須獲得折扣的心態，這種心態會反過來影響市場，最終導致市場——由於這種情緒，你實際上無法提高租金。一旦找到了那個轉折點，情況就會發生巨大變化。

And I would just add, Rick, this is Laurie. That if you look at Austin, which does have quite a bit of supply, a great example of a story where the types eventually will turn is Rainy Street, and it can turn quickly. And so we're going from the lowest occupied community in our mid-summer to now the highest occupied community. So it's starting to turn. And when it does, I think it will turn quickly.

我還要補充一點，瑞克，這位是勞瑞。如果你看看奧斯汀，那裡確實有很多房源，雷尼街就是一個很好的例子，說明房源類型最終會發生變化，而且這種變化可能很快。因此，我們從盛夏時節入住率最低的社區，變成了現在入住率最高的社區。所以情況開始好轉了。而一旦這種情況發生，我認為轉變會很快。

Jana Galan, Bank of America.

Jana Galan，美國銀行。

Thank you. Good morning and congrats on your move. I was hoping, can you provide some commentary on what your team is seeing in greater DC, which is a strong performer this year and into the third quarter, some of the years noted less activity. If you could just comment on that.

謝謝。早安，恭喜您搬家。我希望您能就您的團隊在大華盛頓特區觀察到的情況發表一些評論。該地區今年的表現非常強勁，進入第三季後依然保持強勁勢頭，而往年同期則相對冷清。如果您能就此發表一下意見就太好了。

Yeah, so, DC Metro remains our top market -- and if you sort of look at how it progressed throughout the year, in the first half of this year, it was just an extreme outlier in terms of new leases and renewals. And we think most of that was driven by the return to office movement, in particular on the government side.

是的，所以，華盛頓特區都會區仍然是我們最重要的市場——如果你看一下它在今年上半年的發展情況，就會發現它在新租約和續約方面是一個非常極端的例外情況。我們認為這主要是由重返工作崗位運動推動的，尤其是在政府方面。

As we're progressing throughout the year, obviously, we think most of those folks have returned to office and have now leased their apartments and so now it's gone from being an extreme positive outlier to just being the best market we have, which we'll still definitely take you look at it, it is our -- in the third quarter, it's our top sequential revenue market.

隨著我們在這一年中的推進，顯然，我們認為這些人中的大多數已經返回辦公室，並且現在已經出租了他們的公寓，因此現在它已經從一個非常積極的異常值變成了我們擁有的最好的市場，我們仍然肯定會帶您看看它，它是我們的——在第三季度，它是我們收入最高的連續收入市場。

It's our top quarter-over-quarter revenue growth market. And -- and it just remains incredibly strong. When it comes to dose, because obviously, that's what we talk about so much. I will tell you, we are still not seeing any evidence of our consumer being directly impacted by DOGE. What we're seeing more is a shift in the market of the way our competitors are reacting in concerns about potential impact from DOGE.

這是我們季度環比營收成長最快的市場。而且——而且它依然非常強大。說到劑量，因為很顯然，這是我們經常談論的話題。我可以告訴你，我們目前還沒有看到任何證據顯示我們的消費者直接受到狗狗幣的影響。我們現在看到的更多是市場變化，競爭對手對狗狗幣可能帶來的影響感到擔憂，並開始採取不同的應對措施。

But we're just not seeing it whatsoever. It remains an incredibly strong market. And as you know, when we're talking about DC Metro, we're really talking about the DMD and the trend continues where Virginia is -- or Northern Virginia, which is where we have most of our real estate is incredibly strong. followed by the district and then followed by Maryland.

但我們完全沒看到。它仍然是一個極其強勁的市場。如你所知，當我們談論華盛頓特區都會區時，我們實際上指的是DMD地區，而這一趨勢仍在繼續，弗吉尼亞州——或者說北弗吉尼亞州，也就是我們大部分房地產所在地——的經濟表現非常強勁，其次是華盛頓特區，然後是馬裡蘭州。

Rich Anderson, Cantor Fitzgerald.

Rich Anderson，Cantor Fitzgerald。

Thanks, good morning. So I understand the uncertainty or lack or maybe lower uncertainty next year. I'm in the camp that I don't know, I think there will always be a lot of uncertainty in the next few years, but we'll see.

謝謝，早安。所以我理解明年可能存在的不確定性，或者說不確定性會降低。我屬於不知道的那一類，我認為未來幾年總會有很多不確定因素，但我們拭目以待。

But in terms of supply and its impact on 2026, not a guidance question, I just want to know your history is with -- when guidance -- excuse me, when supply delivers what's the typical tail of disruption from that asset or those collections of assets that come to market essentially vacant. Is it an 18-plus month sort of issue and maybe the real growth story for Camden doesn't materialize until 2027? Or is it quicker than that?

但就供應及其對 2026 年的影響而言，這不是一個指導性問題，我只是想知道你們過去在——當指導性問題——抱歉，當供應實現時，該資產或那些基本上空置的資產組合進入市場後，通常會帶來怎樣的中斷。這個問題可能需要 18 個月以上的時間才能解決，而卡姆登的真正成長可能要到 2027 年才會出現？或者速度更快？

And maybe you can say something specific about your portfolio that makes it quicker or longer based on your own circumstances. So I just want to get some color on how supply might impact things next year, even though the deliveries are coming down. Thanks.

或許你可以根據自身情況，具體談談你的投資組合有哪些方面會影響其運作速度或週期。所以我想了解一下，即使交付量正在下降，明年的供應情況可能會受到怎樣的影響。謝謝。

Yeah. They are coming down. I think in our portfolio, if you kind of look at the mix between Whitten and RealPage's numbers, they've got supply in Camden's markets coming down from 190,000 in 2025, down to about 150,000 in 2026.

是的。它們正在降落。我認為，如果我們看一下 Whitten 和 RealPage 的數據，就會發現，到 2025 年，Camden 市場的供應量將達到 19 萬套，到 2026 年將下降到 15 萬套左右。

If you roll that forward to 2027 on their numbers, you're going to be somewhere around 110,000 completions across Camden's platform. So the trick and the tail that you're talking about, it's always a little tricky because when something delivers, usually the data providers are talking about building completed buildings, if they have the granularity to say that they've received their certificate of occupancy that becomes supply.

如果按照他們的數據推算到 2027 年，Camden 平台上的成交量將達到 11 萬左右。所以你提到的訣竅和陷阱總是有點棘手，因為當某個東西交付時，通常數據提供者指的是已建成的建築物，如果他們有足夠的細粒度信息來說明他們已經收到了入住許可證，那就變成了供應。

The reality is, is that people don't go to that level of detail on when an apartment community delivers actual leasable units. So that -- but if you think about the time it takes from the beginning of first apartments delivered, and I'm talking suburban, walk-up type product, from that point forward on a typical 300 apartment community, average lease-up is going to be somewhere around 25 units per month.

事實上，人們並不會如此詳細地去了解公寓社區何時才能交付實際可出租的單位。所以——但如果你想想從第一批公寓交付到完成所需的時間，我指的是郊區那種沒有電梯的公寓，從那時起，在一個典型的 300 套公寓的社區，平均每月出租的單元數量大約是 25 套。

So call it, 10 to 12 months if things are kind of at a normal pace, you would expect to see all of those units absorbed over that 10-to12-month period from the time that you first start turning your apartments. So there's just a lot of gray areas around when does that happen? When does construction end, does that really matter?

所以，如果一切按正常速度進行，那麼大約需要 10 到 12 個月的時間，從你開始翻新公寓到完成翻新，你就會期望看到所有這些單元房在 10 到 12 個月的時間內被消化掉。所以，關於這種情況何時發生，存在著許多灰色地帶？施工何時結束真的很重要嗎？

It doesn't really -- what really matters is leasable apartments that come online for the developer to be able to put to signals on. So that's kind of what we're looking at. So if you think about the average coming down from 100 190,000 apartments to 110 over a two-year period, it's pretty significant.

其實不然——真正重要的是可供出租的公寓上線，讓開發商可以發出訊號。這就是我們目前關注的重點。所以，想想看，兩年內平均公寓數量從 1 億到 19 萬套下降到 110 套，這可是相當大的變化。

And if the demand side of the equation stays kind of like it is today, they have to get a whole lot better, just kind of in this zone, then you're going to see a significant impact -- positive impact in 2026. And there's no chance that, that doesn't get better in 2027 because that cake is already baked on deliveries for 2027.

如果需求方面的情況與今天類似，他們必須大幅改善，才能達到目前的水平，那麼到 2026 年，你將會看到顯著的正面影響。而且毫無疑問，2027 年情況會好轉，因為 2027 年的交付計畫已經制定好了。

I think we need to talk more about demand than supply because we know what supply is, right? And so when you think about demand, 2025 was the best year in 20-plus years of apartment of absorption in spite of the incredibly high supply that came into the market. What's driving that is the same thing that's been driving apartment demand for a long time, migration, demographics.

我認為我們應該更多地討論需求而不是供給，因為我們知道什麼是供給，對吧？因此，從需求角度來看，儘管市場上的供應量非常高，但 2025 年卻是 20 多年來公寓吸收量最高的一年。造成這種情況的原因與長期以來推動公寓需求的原因相同，即人口遷移和人口結構變化。

And today, we have even a more interesting one, which is the retention. So retaining more people than we ever have, which means that we don't need as many people coming in the -- to these new apartments when the people are moving out. And so you have this really interesting situation where people are staying longer everywhere. You have less mobility in America today for lots of different reasons, and it's really helping the apartment markets.

今天，我們還有一個更有趣的話題，那就是客戶留存率。因此，我們留住了比以往任何時候都多的人，這意味著當人們搬走時，我們不需要那麼多人搬進這些新公寓。因此，就出現了一個非常有趣的現象：人們在各地停留的時間越來越長。如今，由於各種原因，人們在美國的流動性降低了，這確實對公寓市場有利。

And then if you pivot to to home purchases and think about that, we have 9% of our people moving out to buy homes. That is not going to change anytime soon. If you look at the math on homes, if you look at medium income for a home or medium home price plus interest at current cost, it's $3,200 a month compared to in 2019 when it was $1,750 a month.

然後，如果你把目光轉向購房，想想看，我們有 9% 的人搬出去買房。這種情況短期內不會改變。如果你看一下房屋的計算，如果你看一下中等收入買房或中等房價加上當前成本的利息，那就是每月 3200 美元，而 2019 年則是每月 1750 美元。

And what's driving that clearly are three major things. One is home price appreciation is up over 50% since in most markets, some doubled in -- since 2019. You had increases in interest rates, obviously, and increases in taxes and insurance.

而造成這種情況的明顯原因有三點。一是自 2019 年以來，大多數市場的房價上漲了 50% 以上，有些市場甚至翻了一番。很顯然，利率上漲了，稅金和保險費也漲了。

If you had a zero to 30-year mortgage rate, the monthly cost for a medium-priced home today would be about $1,900 a month compared to $1,750 in 2019. And the driver of that is not interest rates, the driver is home price cost and insurance and taxes. So it's going to be a long time before you have people moving out to buy houses.

如果抵押貸款期限為 0 到 30 年，那麼如今購買一套中等價位房屋的月供約為 1900 美元，而 2019 年的月供約為 1750 美元。而造成這種情況的根本原因不是利率，而是房價、保險和稅金。所以，還需要很長時間才會出現人們搬出去買房的情況。

The other part of the equation, I think the medium age first-time homebuyer today is 40 years old before COVID, it was like 34% or 35%. So there's been a massive shift and the ability of Americans to demographics continue to be in our direction plus migration. And so I think the demand side is going to be much higher than people believe because of that -- those equations. And so I think we need to focus on demand as much as supply for sure.

等式的另一部分，我認為如今首次購屋者的平均年齡是 40 歲，在新冠疫情之前，這個比例大約是 34% 或 35%。因此，人口結構發生了巨大的變化，美國人的能力繼續朝著我們這個方向發展，加上移民的影響。因此，我認為由於這些方程式，需求方面將會比人們想像的要高得多。所以我認為，我們肯定需要像關注供應一樣關注需求。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb，Piper Sandler。

Good morning down there. Rick, we'll stick with the 40 years of experience that you guys have. I was just looking at a stock chart of Camden and not to -- I'm not picking on Camden. But REITs have had a tough go in the public world. And maybe the private world isn't any better, but it just seems that in the private world, the assets are rewarded more than they are in the public world.

樓下早安。瑞克，我們會堅持採用你們40年的經驗。我只是在看Camden的股票圖表，並沒有——我不是在針對Camden。但房地產投資信託基金在公開市場上的發展一直很艱難。或許私人領域也好不到哪裡去，但似乎在私人領域，資產比在公共領域更容易獲得回報。

I'm just curious, in the 40 years, you and Camden public, what do you think is missing there? And do you think that the current setup where, as you just described, less home affordability, more propensity to rent, do you think it's finally the time where we will see the REITs actually deliver what they're supposed to.

我只是好奇，在過去的40年裡，你和卡姆登公眾認為那裡缺少了什麼？您是否認為，正如您剛才所描述的，目前住房負擔能力下降，租房傾向增強，我們是否終於能看到房地產投資信託基金真正發揮其應有的作用了？

If you do take a look at the private values and public values, over a long period of time, they're pretty close. We have for 40 years or 33 years as a public company, there's times when the markets get dislocated like they are now. And generally speaking, it hasn't lasted very long because once the market decides that that the assets are undervalued then smart investors come in and buy the stock, so they drive the prices back closer to NAV.

如果你從長遠來看私人價值觀和公共價值觀，你會發現它們非常接近。作為一家上市公司，我們在過去 40 年或 33 年裡，總是會遇到像現在這樣市場動盪的時候。總的來說，這種情況不會持續太久，因為一旦市場認定資產被低估，精明的投資者就會入場買入股票，從而將價格推回更接近淨資產值。

And so for me, being in the public market, I think it's great. We have access to capital that none of our private competitors have. We don't have the same sort of business model, which is I got to sell my properties in order to create value for my shareholders or from my owners. So you're constantly buying and selling and buying and selling or building the selling.

所以對我來說，在公開市場交易我覺得很棒。我們擁有其他任何私人競爭對手都不具備的資金。我們的商業模式不一樣，我不需要透過出售房產來為股東或所有者創造價值。所以你不斷買賣，或是不斷建立銷售管道。

And that's a great business model for some, but -- but for us, we buy and hold and create long-term cash flow and benefits for our shareholders. And I think it's a great space.

對某些人來說，這或許是一個很棒的商業模式，但是——但是對我們來說，我們買入並持有，為股東創造長期現金流和收益。我覺得這裡是個很棒的地方。

Yeah, so Alex, I kind of think of it like a playing field. In the playing field over our 30-plus years as a public company, sometimes it's been tilted in our favor. Sometimes it's been tilted in the favor of the private guys -- and it can happen pretty quickly. If you think about kind of coming out of the COVID world or in the bottom of that time frame, the playing field got tilted pretty quickly towards the private guys because debt was free and plentiful.

是的，Alex，我感覺它就像運動場。在我們作為上市公司的 30 多年歷史中，有時情況會朝著我們有利的方向傾斜。有時候，局勢會向私人企業傾斜——而且這種情況可能很快就會發生。如果你回想一下新冠疫情爆發後的時期，或者說疫情最嚴重的時候，你會發現競爭環境很快就向私營企業傾斜了，因為當時債務融資既便捷又充足。

And that's never a good -- that's more interesting to private guys than it is to public companies. So for the last couple of years, in my mind, has sort of been tilted our way a little bit on the -- certainly on the debt side, certainly on the balance sheet side of things, the ability to finance projects that private guys probably couldn't have gotten done in the last 18 months.

而且這從來都不是好事——這對私人投資者來說比對上市公司更有吸引力。所以在我看來，過去幾年裡，情況在某種程度上已經稍微向我們傾斜了——尤其是在債務方面，尤其是在資產負債表方面，我們有能力為一些私人公司在過去 18 個月裡可能無法完成的項目提供融資。

I think there's still some of that out there, and I think that we're going to continue to use that to our advantage.

我認為這種機會仍然存在，我認為我們將繼續利用這種機會為我們帶來優勢。

Let me just add one last thing because oftentimes, people would ask me, especially when we get to a discounting NAV like we are right now to why are you public? And why wouldn't you just go private? Just sell the company. They're like, okay, I got that. So there is a disconnect, and it's significant, right?

最後我再補充一點，因為常常有人會問我，尤其是在像現在這樣淨值打折的時候，為什麼要上市？為什麼不選擇私立學校呢？把公司賣掉就好了。他們會說，好的，我明白了。所以這裡存在脫節，而且這種脫節很嚴重，對吧？

It's like $3 billion, okay? So if somebody buys the company, then they're going to make an expected rate of return on that asset that they buy. And ultimately, they believe that the prices are going to continue to rise and therefore, we're going to make a reasonable rate of return.

差不多有30億美元，好嗎？所以如果有人收購了這家公司，那麼他們就會從所收購的資產中獲得預期的報酬率。最終，他們認為價格會繼續上漲，因此，我們將獲得合理的收益率。

And so at the end of the day, if the reason that we are at a significant discount to NAV is because people don't trust management. We are a value trap. We really are a poor operator, and we just are awful. -- and you can't really bridge that gap.

因此，歸根結底，如果我們股價大幅低於淨資產值的原因是人們不信任管理層。我們身陷價值陷阱。我們營運得確實很差勁，簡直糟糕透了。 ——而且這種差距是無法彌合的。

And yes, so the company move on because the market is voting you deserve to be a public company and valued at least what your assets could trade for in the private market.

是的，所以公司繼續前進，因為市場投票表明你值得成為一家上市公司，並且至少應該獲得你的資產在私募市場上能夠交易的價值。

On the other hand, if you have a dislocation in the market like we have today, right? So we have we have slow growth or flat growth and you have uncertainty environment, you have an oversupply condition, and there's a lot of concern about when that supply condition is going to change. That will change.

另一方面，如果像我們今天這樣，市場出現混亂，對吧？所以我們現在面臨的是成長緩慢或停滯不前，以及不確定的環境和供應過剩的情況，人們非常擔心這種供應狀況何時會改變。這種情況將會改變。

And what will happen at the same thing that's happened over the last 30-plus years is the market will recognize that the stocks are cheap the stock will go up to or above its NAV, and that you'll be back. And so to me, the issue is what is causing the disconnect and then what -- how do you get out of that disconnect -- and ultimately, the market will figure that out, and it may take longer or shorter.

過去 30 多年來發生的事情一樣，市場將會意識到股票價格便宜，股價將會上漲到甚至超過其淨資產值，然後你就會回來了。所以對我來說，問題在於造成這種脫節的原因是什麼，以及如何擺脫這種脫節——最終，市場會解決這個問題，這可能需要更長時間，也可能需要更短。

It just depends on what's out there and what's the [disclosure] of investors today, but we feel pretty comfortable where we are.

這取決於市場上的情況以及投資者目前的[資訊揭露]情況，但我們對目前的狀況感到相當滿意。

Wes Golladay, Baird.

韋斯·戈拉迪，貝爾德。

Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to ask you about selling the assets that you're doing. Are you able to shed the taxable gains there -- and then one separate tax question. I believe you mentioned there was a big accrual the big rebate you got from a prior year. How much of a headwind will that be for next year?

各位早安。我只是想問你關於出售你正在出售的資產的事情。您能否在那裡消除應稅收益—另外還有一個稅務問題。我相信你提到過，你從前一年獲得了一大筆退款，這筆退款還有很大的累積。這對明年會造成多大的不利影響？

Yeah, so the first thing I'll tell you is if you look at the sales that we're doing, we are doing 1031 exchanges on those with the acquisitions. We're doing reverses. So we bought the real estate first. And then we're selling the real estate.

是的，首先我要告訴你的是，如果你看我們正在進行的銷售，我們會發現我們正在對收購的資產進行 1031 交換。我們正在做反向操作。所以我們先買了房產。然後我們就把房產賣掉。

So that's what we're going to do. Now to ping you back to one of Rick's earlier comments about buying back shares, we do have the ability to sell or to absorb about $400 million of gains where we don't have to do 1031 exchanges if we want to use those proceeds to repurchase shares.

所以，這就是我們要做的事。現在回到里克之前關於回購股票的評論，我們有能力出售或吸收約 4 億美元的收益，如果我們想用這些收益回購股票，就不必進行 1031 交換。

When you think about property tax refunds, here's the best way to think about it. If you look at 2024, we had about $6.5 million of property tax refunds. If you look at 2025, that number dropped down to about $5.5 million. But we are consistently good in getting refunds. This is something we do.

當你考慮房產稅退稅時，最好的思考方式是這樣的。如果展望 2024 年，我們將獲得約 650 萬美元的房產稅退款。如果展望 2025 年，這個數字將下降到約 550 萬美元。但我們一直都能順利拿到退款。這是我們所做的事情。

As we've talked about in the past, contest almost every one of our valuations. If we go through a normal contesting process and we don't win and we don't feel comfortable with where we're settling, we will file lawsuits.

正如我們過去所討論過的，幾乎我們所有的估值都受到了質疑。如果我們透過正常的申訴程序沒有勝訴，並且對最終的解決結果不滿意，我們將提起訴訟。

And a lot of what you're seeing are -- is the settlement of those lawsuits. We have no reason to anticipate that in '26 and '27 and '28 and going on forward that we won't continue to have the same level of success that we're seeing. And so I'm not anticipating any significant sort of headwinds associated with the refunds that we got in '25.

你現在看到的很多情況，其實都是這些訴訟的和解。我們沒有理由預期在 2026 年、2027 年、2028 年以及未來，我們不會繼續取得目前所取得的成功。因此，我預計我們在 2025 年獲得的退款不會帶來任何重大的阻力。

In particular, as I said, because the refunds we got '25 were actually less than the refunds we got in '24, and we're still showing a negative growth on the property tax side.

特別是，正如我所說，因為我們在 2025 年獲得的退款實際上比 2024 年獲得的退款要少，而且我們在房產稅方面仍然呈現負成長。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

Rich Hightower，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, guys. Covered a lot of ground this morning, but I believe at Camden sort of has an operational philosophy not to use concessions. But obviously, the market around you, we'll use tens and flex up or down based on the individual operators. So as you think about -- or as we think about sort of market rents next year comping against sort of the net effective market rents in '25, what's the impact of concessions as far as you can tell.

各位早安。今天早上走了很多地方，但我認為卡姆登的營運理念是不利用特許經營權。但很顯然，在你周圍的市場中，我們會使用十位數的價格，並根據各個運營商的具體情況靈活調整。所以，當您思考——或者當我們思考明年的市場租金與 2025 年的淨有效市場租金進行比較時，您認為優惠政策會產生什麼影響？

So it's a bit of a sneaky question on '26, but just help us understand.

所以，關於「26」這個問題有點刁鑽，但請幫我們理解一下。

Well, a little bit of a sneaky question. But I think what would be helpful for you is for Laurie to sort of give a rundown of what we're seeing in the market, not for Camden, but in the market on the concession side.

嗯，這個問題有點刁鑽。但我認為，如果勞裡能大致介紹一下我們在市場上看到的情況，而不是卡姆登的情況，而是特許經營方面的市場情況，這對你們會很有幫助。

So in our highest supply markets, we continue to see elevated concessions as operators work through the success inventory. But on average, these markets are offering right around five weeks of concessions, approximately 10%. So those key markets include Austin, Nashville, Denver and Phoenix.

因此，在我們供應量最大的市場，隨著業者消化庫存，我們繼續看到優惠增加。但平均而言，這些市場提供的優惠約為五週，約佔總優惠額的 10%。因此，這些重點市場包括奧斯汀、納許維爾、丹佛和鳳凰城。

And so where supply pressures remain most pronounced, that's what we're seeing. But despite these headwinds, we've been able to kind of navigate these markets pretty well, and we're outperforming the market average, each with kind of limited pricing power. But again, those are embedded into our net prices.

因此，在供應壓力最為明顯的地區，我們看到了這種情況。儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們仍然能夠很好地駕馭這些市場，並且在定價能力有限的情況下，我們的業績優於市場平均水平。但這些都已包含在我們的淨價中。

So beginning in July, we actually initiated incremental price reductions, so that we could prioritize our occupancy, and that strategy has really paid off. So while conditions remain challenging, we are taking a disciplined approach to really position ourselves to remain strong on the occupancy side as we head into next year.

因此，從 7 月開始，我們逐步降低價格，以便優先保證入住率，而這項策略確實取得了成功。因此，儘管情況依然充滿挑戰，但我們正採取嚴謹的態度，並努力在明年保持強勁的入住率。

So if you look at the concessionary impact in the market then. So if you look at the highest supply markets, we've talked about Austin, Nashville, et cetera. So they're having concessions or sort of think about effectively six weeks, that's what needs to burn off in 2026.

所以，如果你看一下優惠政策對市場的影響的話。所以，如果你看看供應量最高的市場，我們已經談到了奧斯汀、納許維爾等等。所以他們做了一些讓步，或者說，他們實際上考慮的是六週的時間，這就是需要在 2026 年消耗的時間。

Now the good news is that those concessions are not being prorated mostly so they're upfront, which means that the consumer is used to paying the appropriate rent rates. And so when they go to renewals, it shouldn't be a big shock to them. But that is what needs to roll off in those markets.

好消息是，這些優惠大多不是按比例分攤的，而是預先提供的，這意味著消費者已經習慣了支付相應的租金。所以當他們續約時，應該不會感到太大的意外。但這些市場需要摒棄的就是這種現象。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim，BMO資本市場。

Despite the favorable supply of both with deliveries on a and recover levels, you haven't started the development projects in the first quarter. And I'm wondering why projects had not put out for you at this time. Or do you plan to accelerate development starts as indicated on the last call?

儘管供應充足，交付量和恢復水平都達到了有利水平，但你們在第一季還沒有啟動開發項目。我想知道為什麼這段時間還沒有專案發布。或者，您是否計劃按照上次招標中所述，加快開發啟動速度？

Yeah, I mean, what I'll tell you is today, you can buy real estate at a discount to replacement cost. And if you can buy real estate at a discount to replacement cost, then that is a better use of capital. In addition, obviously, as we just talked about, we are using some of our capital to repurchase shares.

是的，我的意思是，我可以告訴你，如今你可以以低於重置成本的價格購買房產。如果能以低於重置成本的價格購買房產，那才是更明智的資金利用方式。此外，正如我們剛才所討論的，我們正在利用部分資金回購股票。

Now I will tell you, this is going to change. We are already seeing construction costs starting to come down. Depending upon where you're building those costs can be down 5% to 10%, which will certainly help the math. The other thing I would tell you is we are very good developers. And when we find land sites and we are actively looking at additional land sites, we've got land sites under contract as well.

現在我要告訴你們，這種情況將會改變。我們已經看到建築成本開始下降。根據建造地點的不同，這些成本可能會降低 5% 到 10%，這肯定會對計算結果有所幫助。我還要告訴你們的是，我們是非常優秀的開發人員。而且，當我們找到合適的土地，並且正在積極尋找其他土地時，我們也已經有土地簽訂了合約。

When we pulled in a trigger, it's because we believe that we can create value for our shareholders. And we do believe with construction costs coming down, looking at, what, [20] -- call it, '26, '27, '28 could look like in terms of revenue growth. That can make a lot of math work -- and so expect to see us get a little bit more active on the development side. But in 2025, as I said, when you combine a discount to replacement cost, that just seemed like a better use of capital.

我們之所以扣下板機，是因為我們相信我們能夠為股東創造價值。我們相信，隨著建築成本的下降，展望[20]——姑且稱之為2026年、2027年、2028年——收入成長可能會是什麼樣子。這可以解決很多數學問題——因此，預計我們在開發方面將更加積極主動。但正如我所說，到了 2025 年，當你把折扣和重置成本結合起來考慮時，這似乎才是更好的資金利用方式。

Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

Linda Tsai，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Nice work with your 3Q blends being down only 10 bps quarter-over-quarter. -- your 4Q blends expected to be down 1%. Is that all of the new leasing is it seems like are the medium 3Q. So just wondering if there are certain markets where you're seeing more softness or that somewhat reflects conservatism.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。第三季混合利率季減10個基點，表現不錯。 ——預計第四季混合利率將下降1%。看來所有新的租賃業務都集中在第三季中期。所以我想知道，您是否看到某些市場出現更多疲軟跡象，或者這在某種程度上反映了市場的保守情緒。

Yeah, so the first thing I'll tell you is, I made the comment that as we were going through the end of the third quarter, we did make a push on the occupancy side. And when we made that push on the occupancy side, that was at the expense of some new lease growth.

是的，首先我要告訴你們的是，我曾說過，在第三季末，我們在入住率方面確實取得了一些進展。當我們大力提高入住率時，就犧牲了一些新租賃業務的成長。

And so when you sign something in the third quarter, you're effectively seen in the fourth quarter. So yes, we are expecting new leases in the fourth quarter to be the primary driver of what we're seeing in terms of having a blended fourth quarter of just negative 1% approximately.

因此，如果你在第三季度簽了合同，實際上你在第四季度就會被看到。所以，是的，我們預期第四季的新租賃將是推動第四季整體成長率約為負1%的主要因素。

So that's where we're seeing it. Markets that we're seeing additional softness, there's no one market that jumps out. I will tell you, that we are starting to see some markets that are doing the inverses, that are actually doing better than we had expected.

這就是我們看到它的地方。我們看到一些市場出現疲軟，但沒有一個市場特別突出。我可以告訴你，我們開始看到一些市場出現相反的情況，它們的表現實際上比我們預期的要好。

And call out a couple of those markets because I think we focus too much on the ones that are a little softer, let's focus on some of the good ones. And so we absolutely saw second and third quarter improvements in Nashville, in Dallas and Charlotte and in Atlanta. And then Laurie can give some quick entail of what we're seeing on the ground there.

我想特別指出其中幾個市場，因為我認為我們太專注於那些表現稍弱的市場，讓我們把注意力放在一些表現良好的市場上。因此，我們確實看到了納許維爾、達拉斯、夏洛特和亞特蘭大在第二季和第三季的進步。然後勞裡可以簡單介紹一下我們在那裡看到的情況。

Yeah, absolutely. So while we experienced the elevated supply in these markets, we're starting to see really some encouraging signs, signs as demand rises. So on -- or actually, I would say, as the demand really remains strong. But on total gain from renewals and new leases, blended rents have actually turned positive in Dallas, Charlotte and Nashville. And we're also seeing improvements in Atlanta.

是的，絕對的。因此，儘管這些市場供應過剩，但我們開始看到一些令人鼓舞的跡象，即需求上升的跡象。所以——或者更確切地說，我認為，因為需求依然強勁。但就續租和新租約的總收益而言，達拉斯、夏洛特和納許維爾的綜合租金實際上已經轉正。我們也看到亞特蘭大的情況有所改善。

So some specifics just to give you a little color. So in Dallas, for instance, blended rent gains improved quarter-over-quarter, moving from a negative point -- or negative 1.2% to a positive 0.6%. We also saw our average days vacant improved by seven days. So moving from 38 days in Q2 to 31 days in Q3.

為了讓大家更清楚地了解狀況，我舉幾個具體例子。例如，在達拉斯，綜合租金收益環比有所改善，從負值（即 -1.2%）轉為正值（即 0.6%）。我們也發現平均空置天數減少了7天。因此，從第二季的 38 天縮短到第三季的 31 天。

If you look at Charlotte, again, limited games moved from negative 0.2% and to a positive 0.5%. So an improvement there. We also saw 61 more move-ins in than we saw in Q2 just in Charlotte, Nashville, let's talk about that in another high supply market, but we saw blended gains improve from a negative 1 point -- yeah, negative 1.3% and a positive 0.4% in the quarter.

再看看夏洛特，有限的比賽場次從 -0.2% 轉為正 0.5%。所以這方面有改進。我們還看到，光是在夏洛特和納許維爾，入住人數就比第二季增加了 61 人。讓我們來談談另一個高供應市場，但我們看到綜合收益從 -1 個百分點改善——是的，本季為 -1.3% 和 +0.4%。

And we also saw our renewals and transfers peak in August. So again, that was the highest they've seen in Nashville for the whole year and then end with Atlanta. Blended gains increased from -- it was already positive, but it was positive 0.3% and and we improved 2.7% quarter-over-quarter and recorded 96 more movements during the third quarter than the second quarter.

我們也發現，8 月續約和轉帳業務達到了高峰。所以，這是他們在納許維爾今年看到的最高紀錄，然後以亞特蘭大的紀錄收尾。綜合收益從——它原本就是正的，但增長了0.3%，環比增長了2.7%，第三季的成交量比第二季多了96筆。

So just some positive improvement particularly with the blended shift in rents being strong occupancy to each friend or signaling just progress we're making in managing these challenges in these concessionary supply-driven market and positioning ourselves for really a sustained recovery if all things remain the same.

因此，租金的綜合變化帶來了一些積極的改善，入住率也很高，這表明我們在應對這些優惠供應驅動的市場挑戰方面取得了進展，如果一切保持不變，這將使我們為真正的持續復甦做好準備。

Yeah, I just want to piggyback really quick because Nashville is an interesting market. Granted, we only have two assets in Nashville. But obviously, it's a market that we talk about supply quite a bit. And (multiple speaker) really great about how fast Rainy Street in Austin turned.

是的，我只是想順便提一下，因為納許維爾是一個很有趣的市場。誠然，我們在納許維爾只有兩處資產。但很顯然，這是一個我們經常討論供應的市場。（多位發言者）對奧斯汀的雷尼街轉彎的速度之快感到非常驚訝。

In Nashville, when you look at the actual lease rates on new leases, that went up $61 from the second quarter to the third quarter. $61 is pretty dramatic, and that tells you how fast things concern.

在納許維爾，如果你查看新租約的實際租金，會發現從第二季到第三季上漲了61美元。 61美元的漲幅相當驚人，足以說明市場變化之快。

Michael Lewis, Truist.

Michael Lewis，Truist。

Great, thank you. So I want to go back to the conversation about demand that came up in a few questions. And I want to push back on anything you said, I agree with all of it, but I think you left out at some point. And so -- let's pretend I'm not an optimistic person.

太好了，謝謝。所以我想回到之前幾個問題中提到的需求問題。我想反駁你所說的每一句話，我都同意，但我認為你在某些方面有所遺漏。所以——讓我們假裝我不是一個樂觀的人。

And I look at October, the most layoffs in any month since 2003, 22 years ago, manufacturing activity down eight straight months, inflation is now 3% and Fed is going to be cutting -- the ADP drives number came out. It's really just health care and education, not really adding jobs anywhere else.

我看了看 10 月份，這是自 2003 年以來（22 年前）單月裁員人數最多的一次，製造業活動連續 8 個月下降，通貨膨脹率目前為 3%，美聯儲即將減產——ADP 就業數據也公佈了。實際上只有醫療保健和教育領域增加了就業機會，其他領域並沒有真正增加就業機會。

So why shouldn't I be concerned about demand as we kind of move forward the next few months? And I know you're not giving '26 guidance, but would it be completely shocking if same-store revenue was not materially better than it was this year? Like would that be stunning?

那麼，在接下來的幾個月裡，我為什麼不應該擔心需求呢？我知道您沒有給出 2026 年的業績指引，但如果同店收入沒有比今年有顯著改善，您會感到非常驚訝嗎？那豈不是很驚艷？

I think the -- look, I put, I think, a cautionary side of the equation and said the glass is half full, but it's still half, right? And it could be half empty if you don't believe that the economy will hold in there for the midterms. So there are things to be optimistic about. There are also things to be worried about. And you just mentioned a number of them, right?

我認為——你看，我提出了一個謹慎的觀點，我說杯子是半滿的，但它仍然只有一半，對吧？如果你不相信經濟能在中期選舉前保持穩定，那麼這個數字可能只有原來的一半。所以，還是有一些值得樂觀的事情。當然，也有一些令人擔憂的事情。你剛才提到了其中一些，對吧？

I think at least for us, the good news is we don't need as much demand because we have less supply coming in, and we have a retention rates that are at historic highs, right? So we have fewer people moving out. So we don't need as many people to move in to offset those folks.

我認為至少對我們來說，好消息是我們不需要那麼多的需求，因為供應減少了，而且我們的客戶留存率也達到了歷史新高，對吧？所以搬出去的人就少了。所以，我們不需要那麼多人搬進來來填補那些人的空缺。

And so I think these are definitely your points are well taken and are -- and we understand them. But I don't think any of us know what the economy will look like. I think we need fewer jobs than normal to have a reasonable apartment market in 2026 because of the other things we talked about. But it's still an issue out there, obviously.

所以我覺得你這些觀點都很有道理，我們也懂。但我認為我們誰也不知道未來的經濟狀況會如何。我認為，由於我們之前討論過的其他因素，為了在 2026 年擁有合理的公寓市場，我們需要比正常情況下更少的工作。但很顯然，這仍然是一個存在的問題。

And just one follow-up, Michael, on the idea of the stats that you gave about layoffs, et cetera. We have a very good barometer in our portfolio given our platform that we know immediately when people start losing their jobs because they move out.

邁克爾，關於你提到的裁員等統計數據，我還有一個後續問題。鑑於我們的平台，我們的投資組合中有一個非常好的晴雨表，我們可以立即知道人們何時因為搬走而開始失業。

I mean it's like almost automatic you lose your job, there's stress, maybe you stay a month, but it's a really quick read-through for us. And we're just not seeing people -- we're not seeing that as an increase as a reason for move out. I lost my job.

我的意思是，這幾乎是必然的，你會失去工作，會有壓力，也許你會待一個月，但對我們來說，這只是一個快速瀏覽的過程。我們並沒有看到人們——我們沒有看到人口增加成為人們搬離的原因。我失業了。

Obviously, there's always people in the economy who are losing their jobs, but we've not seen what you're talking about, the read-through that would suggest that our residents in Camden's markets are losing their jobs. And that's been -- that's certainly been a hallmark of the past.

顯然，經濟中總是會有人失業，但我們還沒有看到你所說的情況，也沒有看到任何跡象顯示卡姆登市場的居民正在失去工作。那一直是──那無疑是過去的一個標誌。

Our demographic is different. Our markets given the growth profiles of our markets from in migration and the concentration of the jobs that are being created being the preponderance in Camden's markets, I think we've been pretty resilient in the past, and my guess is we will be in the future.

我們的人口結構不同。鑑於我們市場的成長（人口流入和創造的就業機會主要集中在卡姆登市場），我認為我們過去一直具有很強的韌性，我猜未來也會如此。

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya，德意志銀行。

Hi, yes, good morning. Just curious, portfolio-wise if you see any really big differences in performance in regard to your craft versus your Class B or your urban versus suburban assets?

你好，早安。我很好奇，從投資組合的角度來看，您是否發現您的精品房產與B級房產、城市房產與郊區房產在業績方面有任何顯著差異？

Yeah, I'll tell you, and I think it's entirely supply driven. We are seeing our Class A assets to a little bit better than our Class B, and then I will tell you that in the third quarter, our urban assets actually did a lot better than our suburban assets. But once again, that makes sense to me because it's just following where the supply is. If you think about -- the first wave of supply was very urban focused.

是的，我告訴你，我認為這完全是由供應驅動的。我們發現 A 級資產的表現略好於 B 級資產，而且我還要告訴大家，在第三季度，我們的城市資產的表現實際上比郊區資產好得多。但對我來說，這又合情合理了，因為它只是跟著供應的走向。仔細想想——第一波供應主要集中在城市地區。

And then the second wave was suburban-focused. And so now you're seeing the supply disproportionately in the suburban markets.

第二波浪潮則主要集中在郊區。因此，現在你會發現郊區市場的供應量不成比例地偏高。

But I believe you said that your Class B is doing -- your Class A is doing better than you, but a lot of the supply is, A, isn't it?

但我相信你說過你的 B 級學生表現——你的 A 級學生表現比你好，但很多供應都是 A 級學生，對嗎？

Well, a lot of the supply is A. But if you think about where most of our assets are, most of our B assets are in the suburbs where the supply is.

嗯，很多供應都是A類資產。但如果你想想我們的大部分資產在哪裡，我們的大部分B類資產都在供應集中的郊區。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

Julien Blouin，高盛集團。

Thank you for taking my question. Alex, on the second quarter earnings call, you mentioned fourth quarter blends would look a lot like the second quarter, but it sounds like guidance now for the fourth quarter is about 150 bps below the second quarter. I guess when you sort of think of all the things you mentioned earlier, slower job growth, supply economic uncertainties.

感謝您回答我的問題。Alex，在第二季財報電話會議上，你提到第四季的混合銷售情況會與第二季非常相似，但現在看來，第四季的業績預期比第二季低了約 150 個基點。我想，當你考慮到你之前提到的所有因素，例如就業成長放緩、經濟供應的不確定性等等。

What has changed the most in the last 90 days to drive that? Or is it just the posture of landlords' sort of moving more aggressively than anticipated to prioritizing occupancy over rate.

在過去 90 天裡，哪些變化最大導致了這種情況？或者，這只是房東比預期更積極地將入住率置於租金之上的態度嗎？

I think you nailed it. That's exactly what it is. And it's really interesting to see because DC is a great example of that. As I talked about earlier, DC is incredibly strong. The reason why we saw a drop off in the third quarter and an anticipated continued drop off in the fourth quarter is just all of the talk about dose resulted in some reactionary actions from the competitors out there.

我覺得你說得太對了。正是如此。這一點真的很有意思，因為華盛頓特區就是一個很好的例子。正如我之前提到的，華盛頓特區實力非常強大。第三季出現下滑，預計第四季將繼續下滑，原因是所有關於劑量的討論都導致了競爭對手的一些反應性措施。

And I think when you sort of look at the uncertainty that we've talked about quite a bit on this call already, the uncertainty that confines 2025, I think a lot of competitors when they were looking at where they were and realizing that they're about to hit their slow season, which is quarter and the first quarter, really tried to go after occupancy.

我認為，考慮到我們在這次電話會議上已經多次討論過的不確定性，以及2025年的不確定性，我認為很多競爭對手在審視自身處境並意識到即將進入淡季（即第一季度和第二季度）時，都努力提高入住率。

And the way they did that is they drop rates. And I will tell you that even though demand is very strong when you have this amount of supply and you've got competitors that are dropping rates all around you -- you do have to sort of move in the same direction, and that's exactly what we saw.

他們採取的方法是降低利率。我要告訴你們，即使需求非常強勁，當供應量如此之大，而競爭對手又都在降低價格時——你們確實必須朝著同一個方向前進，而這正是我們所看到的。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

Alex Kim，Zelman & Associates。

Hey guys, morning down there. Congrats on the movement that you of this year, you're down the street from one of my pocket picks, Kenyan cities now. I want to dive a little into marketing costs here a little bit. this expense bucket has been elevated the past couple of years with double-digit year-over-year growth.

嘿，各位，早安。恭喜你今年的成就，你現在離我最心儀的城市之一——肯亞城市——只有幾步之遙了。我想稍微深入探討一下行銷成本。過去幾年，這部分支出一直居高不下，年增率達到兩位數。

And I was wondering if this is somewhat reflective of weaker front-end demand that's required more advertising to maintain leasing traffic and occupancy or something else entirely?

我想知道這是否在某種程度上反映了前端需求疲軟，需要投入更多廣告來維持租賃流量和入住率，還是完全出於其他原因？

Yeah, I'll tell you what it is. It's really two things. It's number one, we're really big into SEO, search engine optimization. And so we are buying we're buying the placements when people search for apartments. And with the level of supply that is out there, and folks are trying to obviously chase the same traffic that we're trying to chase. What we found is that, that the cost of SEO has gone up pretty dramatically.

嗯，我會告訴你那是什麼。實際上包含兩件事。排名第一，我們非常重視搜尋引擎優化（SEO）。因此，我們正在購買人們搜尋公寓時的廣告位。鑑於目前的供應水平，大家都在努力爭取和我們一樣的流量。我們發現，SEO的成本已經大幅上漲。

And obviously, if you've got a lot of folks that are buying and trying to make sure that they are the first name that appears, you're going to expect to see some additional costs on that front. So we're absolutely seeing that.

顯然，如果很多人購買並試圖確保自己的名字排在第一位，那麼這方面就會產生一些額外的費用。所以我們確實看到了這一點。

And then the second thing, which is in line with your question is if you sort of look at, although demand is record high, supply is also pretty high. And so we're all fighting for the same prospects. And so because of that, we absolutely are trying to make sure that we can generate as much traffic as we possibly can. So that's what you're seeing now. I would expect that once we get this supply absorbed that the SEO costs will come down pretty dramatically.

其次，這與你的問題有關，那就是，雖然需求創歷史新高，但供應也相當高。所以我們都在為同樣的願景而奮鬥。正因如此，我們才盡力確保能夠盡可能吸引更多流量。這就是你現在看到的景象。我預計一旦這些供應被消化，SEO成本將會大幅下降。

Julian Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

Julian Blouin，高盛集團。

Thank you for taking my follow-up. I just wanted to go back to something you mentioned last quarter's earnings call, which was that written advisers was telling you that 2026, you could see over 4% market rent growth across your markets. I'm just curious, are they still telling you there's a path to that kind of market rent growth in 2016 despite the fact that the second half is maybe playing out a little bit weaker than we had hoped.

感謝您回覆我的後續問題。我只是想回到您上個季度財報電話會議上提到的一件事，那就是書面顧問告訴您，到 2026 年，您的市場租金可能會增長超過 4%。我只是好奇，儘管下半年市場表現可能比我們預期的要弱一些，他們是否仍然認為 2016 年市場租金成長會達到那種水準？

The numbers have come down a bit, but they still have 3% or 3.5% in '26 and over [4%] in '27, so they have moderated their numbers slightly, but it's not dramatic. And it's likely to be more second half is what they've showed in their model.

雖然數字有所下降，但 2026 年仍有 3% 或 3.5%，2027 年超過 4%，所以他們的數字略有緩和，但並不劇烈。他們的模型顯示，下半年的情況可能會更好。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be ending today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Rick Campo for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給里克·坎波，讓他做最後的總結發言。

We appreciate you being on the call today, and we will see some of you in Dallas in December for NAREIT. So thanks a lot. We'll see you then.

感謝您今天參加電話會議，我們將在 12 月於達拉斯舉行的 NAREIT 會議上見到您中的一些人。非常感謝。到時候見。

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。