Camden Property Trust (CPT) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

早安，歡迎參加 Camden Property Trust 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係高級副總裁金·卡拉漢。

Joining me today for our prepared remarks are Rick Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman; and Alex Jessett, President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have Laurie Baker, Chief Operating Officer; and Stanley Jones, Senior Vice President of Real Estate Investments available for the Q&A portion of our call. Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available shortly after the call ends. And please note, this event is being recorded.

今天與我一起發表準備好的演講的有：Camden 董事長兼執行長 Rick Campo；執行副董事長 Keith Oden；以及總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。我們也邀請了營運長 Laurie Baker 和房地產投資資深副總裁 Stanley Jones 參加電話會議的問答環節。今天的活動將透過我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者關係版塊進行網路直播，電話會議結束後不久即可觀看回放。請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC, and we encourage you to review them.

在我們開始發表準備好的演講之前，我想告知大家，我們將根據我們目前的預期和信念做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並非對未來績效的保證，並且涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。有關這些風險的更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，我們鼓勵您仔細閱讀。

Any forward-looking statements made on today's call represent management's current opinions, and the company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events. As a reminder, Camden's complete second-quarter 2025 earnings release is available in the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and it includes reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures, which will be discussed on this call.

今天電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表管理層目前的意見，本公司不承擔因後續事件而更新或補充這些陳述的義務。提醒各位，Camden 2025 年第二季的完整收益報告可在我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者關係部分查閱，其中包括與非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表，我們將在本次電話會議上討論這些調節表。

We would like to respect everyone's time and complete our call within 1 hour, so please limit your initial question to 1 then rejoin the queue if you have a follow-up question or additional items to discuss. If we are unable to speak with everyone in the queue today, we'd be happy to respond to additional questions by phone or e-mail after the call concludes.

為了尊重每個人的時間，我們希望在 1 小時內完成通話，所以請將您的第一個問題限制為 1 個，如果您有後續問題或需要討論的其他事項，請重新加入隊列。如果今天我們無法與排隊中的每個人通話，我們很樂意在通話結束後透過電話或電子郵件回覆其他問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Ric Campo.

現在，我將把電話交給里克·坎波。

Thanks, Kim. Today's on-hold music featured the Beach Boys, as a tribute to a tribute to Brian Wilson, who passed away in June. The Beach Boys upbeat musical themes included good valuations serving USA and Fund, fun, all fit with Team Camden and our culture to a -- cheaper that is. Good vibrations continue for our Sunbelt markets, and we should be back to fund, fund fund next year. Second-quarter apartment demand was one of the best in 25 years following a strong first quarter.

謝謝你，金。今天電話等待音樂播放的是海灘男孩樂團的歌曲，以此向今年六月去世的布萊恩威爾森致敬。海灘男孩樂隊的歡快音樂主題包括良好的估值，服務於美國和基金，充滿樂趣，所有這些都與卡姆登團隊和我們的文化相契合——也就是說，更便宜。陽光地帶市場持續保持良好勢頭，明年我們應該會再次迎來融資熱潮。繼第一季強勁成長之後，第二季公寓需求量達到25年來最佳水準之一。

Apartment affordability continued to improve during the quarter with 31 months of wage growth exceeding rent growth. This expands affordability and increases apartment demand, creating new apartment customers. Camden's sector-leading resident rent-to-income ratio also continues to improve and are better than precoded levels. The historic high cost of homeownership continues to support apartment demand and lower move-outs to purchase homes. Resident retention has been strong across our markets as a direct result of the living excellence provided by our on-site teams who have achieved our highest customer sentiment score ever.

本季公寓可負擔性持續改善，薪資成長已連續 31 個月超過租金成長。這擴大了住房可負擔範圍，增加了公寓需求，從而創造了新的公寓客戶。卡姆登的居民租金收入比在業界領先，並且持續改善，優於預設水準。房屋擁有成本居高不下，持續支撐著公寓需求，並減少了人們搬出公寓去購買獨立住宅的情況。由於我們的現場團隊提供了卓越的生活品質，我們的客戶滿意度評分達到了歷史最高水平，因此我們在各個市場的住戶留存率都非常高。

Great job, Team Camden. All other apartment macro demand drivers, including the outsized population growth and job growth remain intact for our markets. New additions to supply have peaked in our markets, new developments are leasing at a decent pace, given the record demand. As projects continue to lease up through the balance of 2025, rental rates should firm by the beginning of 2026, leading to better-than-average rent growth. advisers projects better than 4% growth in Camden's markets in 2026, accelerating to 5% and in 2027 and beyond.

卡姆登隊，幹得漂亮！其他所有公寓宏觀需求驅動因素，包括人口和就業的超高速成長，對我們的市場仍然有效。市場上的新增供應量已達峰值，鑑於創紀錄的需求，新開發案的租賃速度相當不錯。隨著專案在2025年剩餘時間內持續出租，租金水準預計將在2026年初趨於穩定，從而帶來高於平均水準的租金成長。顧問預測，卡姆登市場2026年的租金成長率將超過4%，並在2027年及以後加速至5%。

We look forward to getting back to a more normal market and growth profile after the excesses of the post-COVID supply environment and Camden is positioned well with one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry with no major dilutive refinancings over the next couple of years. I want to give a big shout out to team came and for their steadfast commitment to improving the lives of our teammates our customers and our stakeholders when experienced at a time. Next up is Keith Oden.

我們期待在新冠疫情後供應環境過剩之後，市場和成長狀況能夠恢復正常。 Camden 擁有業內最強勁的資產負債表之一，未來幾年內不會進行重大稀釋性再融資，因此處於有利地位。我要特別感謝團隊，感謝他們始終如一地致力於改善我們團隊成員、客戶和利害關係人的生活。接下來是基斯·奧登。

Thanks, Ric. Operating conditions across our portfolio are still playing out as we expected. Rental rates for the second quarter had effective new leases down 2.1% and renewals up 3.7% and for a blended rate of 0.7%. This was in line with our expectations for the quarter and reflected an 80 basis point improvement from the negative 10% blended rate we reported in the first quarter of and a 60 basis point improvement from the 10% reported in the second quarter of 2024. Our preliminary July results are also on track and showing improvement versus the second quarter of 2025.

謝謝你，里克。我們旗下所有產品的營運狀況仍符合預期。第二季租金方面，新租約實際下降 2.1%，續約實際上升 3.7%，綜合稅率為 0.7%。這符合我們對本季的預期，比我們在第一季報告的-10%綜合利率改善了80個基點，比2024年第二季報告的10%改善了60個基點。我們7月份的初步業績也符合預期，並顯示出比2025年第二季有所改善。

We occupancy for the second quarter averaged 95.6% versus 95.4% in the first quarter of 25%, and we expect occupancy to remain relatively stable in the mid-95% range for the remainder of the year. Renewal offers for August and September were sent out with an average increase of 3.6%.

第二季平均入住率為 95.6%，而第一季為 95.4%，我們預計今年剩餘時間入住率將維持在 95% 左右的相對穩定水平。8 月和 9 月的續約報價平均上漲了 3.6%。

Turnover rates across our portfolio remained very low with the second quarter of 25 annualized net turnover of only 39% and a testament to strong resident retention and satisfaction, along with continued low levels of move-outs for home purchases, which were 9.8% this quarter. I'll now turn the call over to Alex Jessett, Camden's President and Chief Financial Officer.

我們投資組合的周轉率一直非常低，第二季年化淨週轉率僅為 39%，證明了住戶的良好留存率和滿意度，以及購屋者的搬離率持續走低，本季為 9.8%。現在我將把電話交給卡姆登總裁兼財務長亞歷克斯·傑塞特。

Thanks, Keith, and good morning. I'll begin today with an update on our recent real estate activities and then move on to our second-quarter results and our guidance for third quarter and full year 2025. This quarter, we continued to be active on the asset recycling front, purchasing for $139 million Camden Clearwater a 360-unit waterfront community built in 2020 in the Tampa market. And during and subsequent to quarter end, disposing of 4 older communities for a total of $174 million. Three of the 4 disposition communities were located in Houston and the fourth in Dallas.

謝謝你，基思，早安。今天我將首先介紹我們最近的房地產活動，然後介紹我們第二季的業績以及我們對第三季和 2025 年全年的展望。本季度，我們繼續在資產回收方面保持活躍，以 1.39 億美元的價格收購了位於坦帕市場的 Camden Clearwater，這是一個擁有 360 個單元的濱水社區，建於 2020 年。在季度末及之後，處置了 4 個老舊社區，總計獲得 1.74 億美元。4 個處置社區中有 3 個位於休士頓，第 4 個位於達拉斯。

These disposition communities were on average 25 years old and generated a combined unlevered IRR of over 10% on over our average hold period of 24 years. These older, higher CapEx communities were sold at an average AFFO yield of approximately 5.1%. During the quarter, we stabilized Camden Wood Mill Creek, one of our two single-family rental communities located in suburban Houston.

這些待處置社區平均已有 25 年歷史，在我們平均 24 年的持有期內，其綜合無槓桿內部收益率超過 10%。這些較老、資本支出較高的社區出售時，平均調整後營運資金收益率約為 5.1%。本季度，我們穩定了位於休士頓郊區的兩個獨棟住宅租賃社區之一—卡姆登伍德米爾溪 (Camden Wood Mill Creek)。

Additionally, we continue to make leasing progress on our other two development communities, which completed construction during 2024. We Camden Long Meadow Farms, our second single-family rail community, which we now anticipate will stabilize in early 2026, and Camden Dura, a traditional multifamily community located in the Raleigh-Durham market of North Carolina, which will stabilize in the third quarter.

此外，我們另外兩個已於 2024 年竣工的開發社區的租賃工作也在持續推進。我們第二個單戶鐵路社區 Camden Long Meadow Farms 預計將於 2026 年初穩定下來，而位於北卡羅來納州羅利-達勒姆市場的傳統多戶住宅社區 Camden Dura 預計將於第三季度穩定下來。

In addition, lease-up continues at Camden Village District, a 369 unit new development in Raleigh, which is currently 37% leased and 29% occupied. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we are still anticipating $750 million in both acquisitions and dispositions. This implies an additional $412 million in acquisitions and an additional $576 million in dispositions this year.

此外，位於羅利市的 369 個單元的新開發項目 Camden Village District 的租賃工作仍在繼續，目前已出租 37%，入住率為 29%。在我們預期範圍的中點，我們仍然預期收購和處置總額將達到 7.5 億美元。這意味著今年將有額外 4.12 億美元的收購和 5.76 億美元的資產處置。

We are actively marketing additional communities, but clearly, in the aggregate, our 2025 dispositions will be more back-end loaded. Our original guidance for development starts in 2025 was $175 million to $675 million. And to date, we have started $184 million. We will continue to monitor market conditions and may start additional projects later this year.

我們正在積極推銷其他社區，但顯然，總體而言，我們 2025 年的資產處置將更多地集中在後期。我們最初對 2025 年開工開發案的預期投資額為 1.75 億美元至 6.75 億美元。截至目前，我們已啟動了 1.84 億美元的計畫。我們將繼續關注市場狀況，並可能在今年稍後啟動其他項目。

Turning to financial results. Last night, we reported core funds from operations for the second quarter of $187.6 million or $1.70 per share, $0.01 ahead of the midpoint of our prior quarterly guidance. driven primarily by the combination of higher property tax refunds and lower interest expense resulting from the timing of capital spend. Property revenues were in line with expectations for the second quarter. We continue to be pleased with how well our property revenues are performing, considering the peak lease-up competition we are facing across many of our markets, illustrating the depth of the Sunbelt demand.

接下來來看財務業績。昨晚，我們公佈了第二季核心營運資金為1.876億美元，合每股1.70美元，比先前季度預期中位數高出0.01美元。這主要得益於更高的房產稅退稅額以及資本支出時間安排帶來的更低利息支出。第二季房地產收入符合預期。考慮到我們在許多市場面臨的租賃競爭白熱化階段，我們對物業收入的良好表現仍然感到滿意，這表明陽光地帶的需求非常旺盛。

And we are pleased with our continued property expense outperformance, particularly in property taxes and insurance. As a result, we are decreasing our full year same-store expense midpoint from 3% to 2.5%. And and correspondingly increasing the midpoint of our full year same-store net operating income from flat to positive 25 basis points.

我們對物業支出持續優於市場平均感到滿意，尤其是在物業稅和保險方面。因此，我們將全年同店支出中點從 3% 下調至 2.5%。相應地，我們全年同店淨營業收入的中點從持平提高到正25個基點。

Property taxes represent approximately 1/3 of our operating expenses and are now expected to increase by less than 2% versus our prior assumption of 3%. This is primarily driven by favorable settlements from prior year tax assessments and lower values from our Texas markets. Also, we are anticipating that full year property insurance expense will actually be slightly negative versus our original budget of up high single digits.

房產稅約占我們營運支出的 1/3，預計漲幅將低於 2%，而我們先前預期的漲幅為 3%。這主要是由於前幾年的稅務評估結果有利，以及德州市場的房價較低。此外，我們預計全年財產保險費用實際上會略低於我們最初預算的個位數高點。

Almost entirely as a result of the 25 basis point increase in same-store net operating income, we are increasing the midpoint of our full year core FFO guidance by $0.03 per share from $6.78 to $6.81. This is our second consecutive $0.03 per share increase to our 2025 core FFO guidance. We also provided earnings guidance for the third quarter.

由於同店淨營業收入成長了25個基點，我們將全年核心FFO預期中位數從每股6.78美元上調至6.81美元，上調幅度為每股0.03美元。這是我們連續第二次將2025年核心FFO預期調高每股0.03美元。我們也提供了第三季的獲利預期。

We expect core FFO per share for the third quarter to be within the range of $1.67 to $1.71, representing a $0.01 per share sequential decline at the midpoint primarily resulting from the typical seasonal increases in utility and repair and maintenance expenses. Non-core FFO adjustments for 2025 are anticipated to be approximately $0.11 per share and on primarily legal expenses and expense transaction pursuit costs.

我們預計第三季核心FFO每股收益將在1.67美元至1.71美元之間，其中點值較上一季下降0.01美元，主要原因是公用事業和維修保養費用的典型季節性增長。預計 2025 年非核心 FFO 調整約為每股 0.11 美元，主要涉及法律費用和交易追索成本。

Our balance sheet remains incredibly strong with net debt-to-EBITDA at 4.2x. We have no significant debt maturities until the fourth quarter of 2026 and no dilutive debt maturities until 2027. Additionally, our refinancing interest rate risk is the lowest of the peer group positioning us well for outsized growth.

我們的資產負債表依然非常穩健，淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率為 4.2 倍。在 2026 年第四季之前，我們沒有重大債務到期；在 2027 年之前，也沒有會稀釋股權的債務到期。此外，我們的再融資利率風險在同業中最低，這使我們能夠實現超額成長。

At this time, we will open the call up to questions.

此時，我們將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citi.

（操作說明）埃里克·沃爾夫，花旗銀行。

I know you want to stay away from giving specific July data, but I think the market is trying to understand how the back half of this year could accelerate so much when it seems like your peers saw a shorter peak leasing season and are reducing their expectations. So could you maybe just tell us to the degree of acceleration you saw in July? And if you have an expectation around blends for the third quarter?

我知道您不想透露具體的七月數據，但我認為市場正在試圖了解，為什麼今年下半年的成長速度會如此之快，而您的同行似乎經歷了租賃旺季的縮短，並且正在降低預期。那麼，您能否告訴我們一下您在7月觀察到的加速程度？您對第三季的混合葡萄酒有什麼預期嗎？

Yes, absolutely. So the first thing I'll tell you is that our blend actually increased monthly April through July. So the trend is exactly in line with what we'd like to see. Now that being said, last night, we maintained our full year revenue growth at 1%, but we did change some of the components of how we get there.

是的，絕對的。首先我要告訴大家的是，從四月到七月，我們的混合比例其實每個月都在增加。所以，這趨勢完全符合我們所希望看到的。話雖如此，昨晚我們維持了全年營收成長1%的目標，但我們確實改變了實現這一目標的一些組成部分。

So we'll talk about these components in a second, but the first thing you need to know because you guys are going to ask is, we are now anticipating that our second half blended rates will be just under 1%. And that will get you to a full year blend of about 50 to 75 basis points. So the way that we are still getting there is through lower bad debt, higher occupancy and higher other income than we originally had intended.

所以我們稍後會討論這些組成部分，但首先你們需要知道的是，因為你們肯定會問，我們現在預計下半年的綜合利率將略低於 1%。這樣一來，全年的利率就會比之前高出大約 50 到 75 個基點。因此，我們實現目標的方式仍然是降低壞帳、提高入住率和其他收入，而不是像我們最初預期的那樣。

Now as I've talked with many of you guys at various conferences, I'd like to point out that this is a forecast and it's certainly not a directive to our teams. We give our teams leeway to get to our revenue budgets any way they can. And so this is how we're going to do it. But I would like to take this moment to point out that we're very proud of our teams from managing the delinquency and also managing the rollout of our new Vero screening, which is helping delinquency and has effectively got our bad debt back to pre-COVID levels. Keep in mind that we were assuming that we were going to have bad debt of about 70 basis points in 2025.

正如我在各種會議上與你們許多人交流過的那樣，我想指出，這只是一個預測，當然不是對我們團隊的指示。我們允許團隊以任何方式完成我們的收入預算。所以，我們將這樣做。但我想藉此機會指出，我們為我們的團隊感到非常自豪，他們不僅管理了拖欠款項，還管理了我們新的 Vero 篩選系統的推廣，這有助於減少拖欠款項，並有效地使我們的壞賬恢復到新冠疫情前的水平。請記住，我們當時假設 2025 年的壞帳率約為 70 個基點。

And today, it looks like 55 basis points is probably a pretty good number. Also, really proud of our teams for what they've been able to do on occupancy. They're converting guest cards on new leases. And there are also -- they're also making sure that through the excellent customer experience that our resident retention is the highest level that we've ever seen. So really proud of what our teams are doing and that is how we can get to our full year numbers. Laurie, do you have anything you like to add?

而今天看來，55個基點可能是個相當不錯的數字。另外，我為我們的團隊在入住率方面所取得的成就感到非常自豪。他們正在將新租約上的賓客卡進行轉換。此外，他們還透過提供卓越的客戶體驗，確保我們的住戶留存率達到前所未有的最高水準。我為我們團隊的工作感到非常自豪，而正是他們的努力讓我們能夠實現全年的目標。勞瑞，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Sure. Yes. This is Laurie Baker, and hello to all of you. It's great to be on the call with you today. Camden's ability to continue to maintain strong performance in this environment.

當然。是的。我是勞裡貝克，大家好。今天能和你通話真是太好了。在這種環境下，卡姆登能否持續保持強勁的業績表現？

It's just a testament to the strength of our operating platform and the agility of our team. our culture of care and responsiveness helps reduce this resident turnover, and we continue to turn residents into satisfy customers and remain within the Camden family. So this commitment is translating directly into our performance with strong renewals, as Alex just covered and a customer sentiment score of $91.6 million.

這充分證明了我們營運平台的強大實力和團隊的敏捷性。我們關懷備至、反應迅速的企業文化有助於降低住戶流動率，我們也將繼續努力，讓住戶成為滿意的客戶，並留在卡姆登大家庭中。因此，這項承諾直接轉化為我們的業績，續約率強勁，正如 Alex 剛才提到的那樣，客戶滿意度評分高達 9,160 萬美元。

So I want to point out that this is the highest quarter we've received since we started measuring customer sentiment in 2014. And in last quarter, we shared with you that our customer sentiment score was 91.1% and celebrated the fact that this was the first time that we had surpassed the score of 91.

因此，我想指出，這是我們自 2014 年開始衡量客戶情緒以來獲得的最高季度評分。上個季度，我們向大家分享了我們的客戶滿意度得分達到了 91.1%，並慶祝這是我們首次突破 91 分大關。

So the fact that today, just a quarter past that we are once again raised the bar another 50 basis points with the score of 91.6%. Just demonstrates that our employees are deeply committed to providing an outstanding customer experience, leveraging our platform and improving lives one experience at a time.

因此，今天，僅僅過了四分之一的時間，我們就再次將標準提高了 50 個基點，得分達到 91.6%。這充分說明我們的員工致力於提供卓越的客戶體驗，充分利用我們的平台，並透過每一次體驗來改善人們的生活。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

Great. Thank you for the color. Our team was debating whether it would be the Beach Boys or (inaudible), I guess you went to Beach Boys.

偉大的。謝謝你提供的色彩。我們團隊當時正在討論是選海灘男孩樂團還是（聽不清楚），我猜你們是去聽海灘男孩樂團的歌。

We debated that as well.

我們也討論過這個問題。

So I guess just following up on your last answer. Can you talk about the markets, like what drove the change where things have moved the most I think some of your peers have talked about slower lease-up on development, developers getting more aggressive on concessions. Just maybe more color on what's going on in the markets.

所以，我只是想接著你上次的回答問一下。您能談談市場嗎？比如是什麼因素推動了改變？哪些方面變化最大？我認為您的一些同行已經談到了開發項目的租賃速度放緩，開發商在優惠方面變得更加積極。或許可以更詳細地介紹市場正在發生的事情。

Yes. I mean we certainly are seeing seen some of our peer group get a little bit more competitive on the concession side. And what we're doing is that we're making sure that we are positioned appropriately in each of the markets -- what I will tell you is when you sort of go through each of our markets, what you'll find is that some markets have done it much better than we had originally anticipated. And the market that I'd point out for that is D.C. And then some of our markets have just continued to be a little bit softer.

是的。我的意思是，我們確實看到一些同行在特許經營方面變得更具競爭力了。我們正在做的，就是確保我們在每個市場都處於適當的位置——我可以告訴你的是，當你仔細查看我們的每個市場時，你會發現有些市場的表現比我們最初預期的要好得多。我想指出的市場是華盛頓特區。此外，我們的部分市場也持續表現疲軟。

I would tell you that Austin long term, we think, is going to be an absolutely fantastic market for us. But it is going through just a huge amount of supply. And once that supply gets absorbed, the demand is so strong that will be great. But today, it is continuing to be softer than we had anticipated.

我想說的是，從長遠來看，我們認為奧斯汀將是我們一個非常棒的市場。但它的供應量卻非常巨大。一旦這些供應被消化，需求就會非常強勁，這將帶來巨大的收益。但今天，它的水位仍然比我們預期的要低。

I think that one of the issues that we've listened to the other calls, obviously, and this has been the discussion for the last two days. And that is that I think that people and just businesses in general, and let's talk about multifamily operators specifically, people have been -- instead of pushing rate. They've been pushing occupancy under the kind of -- and if you think about all the -- like the said came out and didn't raise. But I'm on the Board of the Dallas Fed, the Houston branch of the Dallas Fed. And the discussion we had prior to those meetings was all this uncertainty around tariffs and uncertainty around the economy.

我認為，我們聽取了其他電話的意見，顯然，這也是過去兩天來一直在討論的問題之一。我認為，人們，以及一般的企業，特別是多戶住宅營運商，一直以來都在——而不是推動價格上漲。他們一直在推動入住率低於某種水平——如果你想想所有這些——就像他們所說的那樣，出來後卻沒有提高。但我擔任達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行休士頓分行的董事。在這些會議之前，我們討論的都是圍繞著關稅和經濟的不確定性。

And are you going to have a recession and all that. And so I think that what operators are doing is they're looking at their occupancy and saying, okay, I don't know what's going to happen in the future. So they're not pushing. And that is a really interesting issue because it's not that you can't push. It's that they aren't pushing because they're worried about the future.

你們那邊會不會出現經濟衰退之類的？所以我認為營運商們正在做的，是審視他們的入住率，然後說，好吧，我不知道未來會發生什麼。所以他們並沒有強推。這是一個非常有趣的問題，因為這並不是說你不能推動。那是因為他們擔心未來，所以才沒有積極進取。

And so I think this uncertainty around everything that's going on in our economy and politically and all that. has caused people to be more cautious and gone to a more occupancy led push. And when you do that, -- that means you don't push your new lease rates as much, and you try to keep the existing residents as long as you can, right?

所以我認為，當前經濟、政治等各方面的不確定性，導致人們更加謹慎，並轉向以入住率為主的消費模式。這樣做就意味著你不會大力提高新租約的價格，而是盡可能地留住現有住戶，對嗎？

And so I think that's kind of the industry mindset right now. and the consumer itself is healthy. I mean we've had 31 months of wage growth and apartment rents have been flat. the customer is healthy. The customers out there, and it's not a customer issue as much as it's a mindset of the operators trying to protect themselves for the back half of the year probably.

所以我認為這大概就是目前業界的普遍心態。而消費者本身的心態是健康的。我的意思是，薪水已經連續成長了31個月，而公寓租金卻保持穩定。消費者狀況良好。問題在於消費者，與其說是消費者的問題，不如說是業者為了保護自己下半年利益而採取的心態。

Handel St. Juste, Mizuho.

漢德爾聖朱斯特，瑞穗出版社。

Just to follow up on the last question. I was hoping you could dig a bit more into the DC and L.A. portfolio performance. There is some concerns about the near-term outlook given some recent weakening trends there. So maybe some color on how they performed year-to-date on blend what you expect in the back half of the year? And then also maybe how maybe explain how your D.C. portfolio has held up so well, it seemed to be a bit of an outlier.

我來補充一下上一個問題。我希望你能更深入地分析一下華盛頓特區和洛杉磯的投資組合表現。鑑於近期該地區出現了一些疲軟趨勢，人們對短期前景感到擔憂。那麼，能否介紹一下他們今年迄今為止在混合飲料方面的表現，以及您對下半年的期望？此外，或許還可以解釋一下，為什麼您的華盛頓特區投資組合表現如此出色，這似乎有點反常。

Yes, absolutely. So I'll just walk through some highlights around D.C. So D.C. had the second highest quarter-over-quarter revenue growth in our portfolio at 3.7%. Interestingly, after listening to some of our peers, our actual highest quarter-over-quarter revenue growth market was L.A.

是的，絕對的。那麼我將帶大家了解華盛頓特區的一些亮點。華盛頓特區在我們投資組合中實現了第二高的季度環比收入成長，達到 3.7%。有趣的是，在聽取了一些同業的意見後，我們發現季度較上季收入成長最高的市場其實是洛杉磯。

In addition, D.C. had our highest second-quarter occupancy at 97.3%. And our highest second-quarter rental rate growth of 4.1%, our highest sequential rental rate growth of 1.2%, our highest second quarter blended rate growth of 5.8% and we're seeing absolutely no slowdowns in guest cards.

此外，華盛頓特區第二季的入住率最高，達 97.3%。我們第二季租金成長率最高達到 4.1%，季租成長率最高達到 1.2%，第二季綜合租金成長率最高達到 5.8%，而且我們完全沒有看到客戶卡數量放緩的跡象。

So I would tell you -- I would take every 1 of our markets to be behaving like D.C. today. And when you sort of break it down into its components, -- remember that we have -- most of our exposure is in Northern Virginia, and then it goes from Northern Virginia to Maryland and into the district and Northern Virginia is the one that's performing the best followed though this quarter by a little bit of a flip, the district is actually doing slightly better than Maryland. So I think a lot of it is, is where we're positioned in the market. And I also think a lot of it is that sort of the dose concerns are probably pretty overstated currently for what we're seeing inside the district.

所以我會告訴你——我認為我們所有的市場今天都像華盛頓特區一樣運作。當你把它分解成各個組成部分時——記住，我們的大部分投資都集中在弗吉尼亞州北部，然後從弗吉尼亞州北部擴展到馬裡蘭州，再到華盛頓特區。維吉尼亞州北部是表現最好的地區，但本季情況略有逆轉，華盛頓特區實際上比馬裡蘭州略好一些。所以我覺得很大程度取決於我們在市場中的定位。而且我認為，就我們目前在該地區看到的情況而言，劑量方面的擔憂可能被過度誇大了。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

I guess, Rick, just given your comments about affordability, the strong wage growth and supply moderating in the coming years. I mean how good do you think rent growth could be in the coming years? And is there a period of time that historically that this reminds you of?

我想，里克，就你之前提到的可負擔性、強勁的工資增長以及未來幾年供應放緩的問題而言，情況就是這樣。我的意思是，你認為未來幾年租金成長前景如何？歷史上，這是否讓你想起某個時期？

It does. It reminds me of after the -- great Recession in 2008 and '09 and '10, I think we came out in 2010 when people were still very bearish about the apartment markets. And we made a pretty bold statement at the time and said that the next three years is going to be the best three years of apartment revenue growth that we've had in the last two decades, and it turned out to be correct.

確實如此。這讓我想起了 2008 年、2009 年和 2010 年的大衰退之後，我想我們在 2010 年走出困境時，人們仍然非常看空公寓市場。當時我們做出了一個相當大膽的聲明，稱未來三年將是近二十年來公寓收入成長最好的三年，事實證明我們的預測是正確的。

And you had the same kind of -- and obviously, the COVID scenario is very different than the financial crisis scenario, but the -- what drove things where you had oversupply and then demand got crushed during the financial crisis. In this case, we have oversupply because of the COVID exuberance because of the rent snapback we had post COVID.

而且，新冠疫情的情況與金融危機的情況截然不同，但導致金融危機期間供應過剩和需求驟降的根本原因是一樣的。在這種情況下，由於新冠疫情後租金迅速回升，導致市場過剩，這是因為疫情期間的過度消費造成的。

And then you had free money for a long time. So you had this massive increase in supply of 50-year high. And so what's happening now. The interesting part of that is we haven't had a demand fall off. Our demand in the last 2 years has been the highest it's been in 20 years.

然後你就有很長一段時間不用花錢了。所以供應量出現了50年來的最高水準的大幅成長。那麼現在發生了什麼事？有趣的是，我們並沒有遇到需求下降的情況。過去兩年，我們的需求量達到了20年來的最高水準。

And so you have this interesting issue where we have big time supply and then we have big-time demand. And I would say in the face of big time demand, or big Tim supply, when our top line growth is flat or up a little, I would -- we're sharing that because usually, when you have massive oversupply, you have massive declines in rents and occupancy. And it's a big picture for the multifamily group.

所以，這就出現了一個有趣的問題，一方面供給量很大，另一方面需求量也很大。面對巨大的需求或巨大的供應，當我們的營收成長持平或略有上升時，我會說——我們之所以分享這些信息，是因為通常情況下，當供應嚴重過剩時，租金和入住率就會大幅下降。這對這家多戶住宅集團來說意義重大。

In this case, our flat NOI growth and call it, flat at 1%, is really a blessing in the face of the supply. So what's happening now, and if you look at the starts, I mean, starts are down 76% in Charlotte, Denver, Austin, Atlanta and D.C. They own 60% to 76% in Tampa, Orlando, Phoenix and Nashville.

在這種情況下，我們的 NOI 成長停滯不前，甚至停滯在 1%，這在供應緊張的情況下確實是一件好事。所以現在的情況是，如果你看看首發陣容，我的意思是，夏洛特、丹佛、奧斯汀、亞特蘭大和華盛頓特區的首發陣容下降了 76%。坦帕、奧蘭多、菲尼克斯和納許維爾的首發陣容下降了 60% 到 76%。

They're down 45% to 65% in Dallas, Houston, West Palm Beach and Fort Worth. So when you look at the supply numbers, Clearly, the supply is not -- is down significantly. It's going to be down significantly. As I said in my original opening comments, the wind advisers has kind of on average growth in 2026 for Camden markets and 5 plus in 2027 and then more beyond.

在達拉斯、休士頓、西棕櫚灘和沃斯堡，它們的跌幅為 45% 至 65%。所以當你查看供應數據時，很明顯，供應量並沒有大幅下降。將會大幅下降。正如我在最初的開場白中所說，風能顧問預計卡姆登市場在 2026 年將實現平均增長，2027 年將增長 5% 以上，之後將繼續增長。

And some of the markets are going 6%, 7% up -- and it's kind of like when you think about Austin and Nashville, those markets are down significantly. And so what you're going to have is a snap back when -- and the snapback is going to be pretty strong.

有些市場上漲了 6%、7%——但想想奧斯汀和納許維爾，這些市場的跌幅就很大。所以你會看到它迅速反彈——而且反彈會非常強烈。

And we've seen this historically over the years when you have excess supply in markets that continue to grow, there's Austin continues to grow. It's one of the best job growth markets in America, so is Nashville. The problem is, is that you got all the supply to take up. And so I think the 267 and 8 could be as good as '11, '12 and '13.

從歷史經驗來看，多年來，當市場供應過剩且持續成長時，這種情況屢見不鮮，奧斯汀就是一個例子，它一直在持續成長。它是美國就業成長最快的市場之一，納許維爾也是如此。問題是，你已經擁有了所有可供使用的資源。所以我認為 267 和 8 可以和 2011、2012 和 2013 年款一樣好。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

Rick, could you maybe talk about the development outlook? You said that you've got a bunch of starts penciled in for the back half of the year. I'm just curious, given kind of the weak job report we got this morning and still uncertainty over tariffs. And I realize development is a long-term game. But like how are you thinking about that? How are you adjusting some of the inputs? And I guess, what yields are you targeting on new potential starts?

里克，您能否談談發展前景？你說過你已經安排了下半年的一些比賽。我只是好奇，因為今天早上公佈的就業報告比較疲軟，關稅方面仍然存在不確定性。我意識到發展是一個長期的過程。但你是怎麼看待這個問題的呢？您是如何調整某些輸入參數的？那麼，你們對新開工計畫的預期產量是多少呢？

So we are definitely more cautious just because of the uncertainty in the marketplace today for sure. And the developments and some of the elements we have. Like one of the big ones is in Nashville and the Nashville downtown market, which this one would compete with is definitely still weak and still highly concessionary. The suburbs are a lot better in Nashville. We acquired a property in the suburbs, and it's actually doing really well compared to our budget. So we are going to be a developer.

所以，鑑於當前市場的不確定性，我們肯定會更加謹慎。以及我們所取得的進展和一些成果。例如，納許維爾就有一家大型連鎖店，而納許維爾市中心的市場（這家連鎖店將與之競爭）目前仍然很疲軟，而且特許經營現象仍然很嚴重。納什維爾的郊區要好得多。我們在郊區購置了一處房產，而且與我們的預算相比，它的表現實際上非常好。所以我們要成為開發者。

There's no question about it. We'll start our developments at some point. But we want to make sure that the yields are reasonable. And from a yield perspective, we're looking at the low 5s to the low 6s to call it a 5.75% to 6% depending upon whether it's urban or suburban or and what the nature of the property is. But that allocation of capital to development today is important. And that's why we're kind of waiting on to see how the economy unfolds on the other two developments that we have, one in Denver and one in Nashville that could start by the end of the year.

這點毋庸置疑。我們會在某個時候開始開發工作。但我們希望確保收益率合理。從收益率的角度來看，我們預計收益率會在 5% 到 6% 之間，具體數值取決於房產位於城市還是郊區，以及房產的性質。但如今將資金分配給發展領域至關重要。所以，我們正在觀望經濟狀況如何發展，以及另外兩個開發案的情況，一個在丹佛，一個在納許維爾，這兩個計畫可能會在年底前啟動。

What's happening on cost is interesting. So we're buying out -- we're doing a more suburban Nashville deal right now, the Nashville nations and we're doing our buyout now and our buyout looks really good. We're looking maybe to save anywhere from 2% to 3% or 4% on the original budget on the cost and I think that the good news on -- if you're a developer is that your -- the cost structure is not going up, but it is kind of flattening or coming down a little.

成本方面的變化很有趣。所以我們正在進行收購——我們現在正在進行一項更偏向納許維爾郊區的交易，收購納許維爾國家隊，我們現在正在進行收購，而且我們的收購看起來非常好。我們預計成本可能會在原始預算的基礎上節省 2% 到 3% 或 4%，我認為對於開發商來說，好消息是成本結構不會上升，反而趨於平穩或略有下降。

But at the same time, the input pressures are still very difficult for developers to get deals done. And so I think that when you look at the potential start numbers in '26, '27, they're going to be down 50% to 60% from what they were at the peak in '23 and '24. So you should have a decent supply construct in '27, '28, '29 when you're delivering these deals, but that's kind of how we're thinking about it.

但同時，開發商在達成交易方面仍面臨巨大的投入壓力。因此，我認為，當你觀察 2026 年、2027 年的潛在參賽人數時，你會發現它們將比 2023 年和 2024 年的巔峰時期下降 50% 到 60%。所以，在 2027 年、2028 年、2029 年完成這些交易時，你應該會有一個不錯的供應結構，這就是我們考慮的方式。

Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

傑夫·斯佩克特，美國銀行。

Great. Appreciate the comments. In particular, in '26, we don't receive the white data. So I'm just curious if you could share with us maybe what some of the underlying assumptions that they're making in terms of the job market in '26 over '25, given the weaker report this morning. And then do you I guess, your thoughts on that specifically because you've mentioned some rental projections for Camden's markets in '26. I know you don't do your own forecast, but -- is that achievable? Do you think it's just simply lower supply? Or again, I guess if you could share with us what Witten's assuming for jobs next year.

偉大的。感謝大家的評論。特別是，在 '26 年，我們沒有收到白人資料。所以我很好奇，鑑於今天早上發布的報告較為疲軟，您能否和我們分享一下，他們對 2026 年就業市場與 2025 年相比做出了哪些潛在的假設。那麼，我想請您談談您對此的看法，因為您提到了一些關於卡姆登市場在 2026 年的租賃預測。我知道你不做預測，但是──這有可能實現嗎？你認為只是供應量減少嗎？或者，您能否和我們分享一下維騰對明年就業情勢的預期？

Yes. So I'll just give you the progression on Witten's numbers for completions -- so in 2024, it -- these are just for Camden markets, Camden 15 operating markets. Whitten had completions in 2024 at about 250. He's got -- he has completions in 2025 down to 190. And then they fall further to about 150 in 2026.

是的。所以我將向你們介紹 Witten 的完工數據進度——到 2024 年，這些數據僅針對 Camden 市場，Camden 15 個營運市場。Whitten 預計 2024 年將完成約 250 項工程。他的預測是——他預計到 2025 年完成的比賽將達到 190 場。然後到 2026 年，它們將進一步下降到大約 150 個。

And it's -- when Rick's talking development, you're really out to '27, and we have written numbers out '27 and the total completions in 2027 across Camden's platform would be about $120,000. So if you think about that progression from 2024, which was the peak in Camden's markets, we expect that to be down from $245 to 120 between 2024 and 2027.

而且——當里克談到開發時，他實際上正在展望 2027 年，我們已經寫出了 2027 年的數字，到 2027 年，卡姆登平台上的總完工金額約為 12 萬美元。因此，如果您考慮從 2024 年（卡姆登市場的高峰）開始的發展趨勢，我們預計 2024 年至 2027 年間，房價將從 245 美元降至 120 美元。

So clearly, at that level, and when you strip out the subsidized piece of that puzzle, you're down to market rate apartment somewhere around starts of somewhere around 70,000 to 80,000 across Camden's entire footprint, which is astonishingly low relative to historical norms.

所以很明顯，在這個層面上，當你剔除補貼部分後，整個卡姆登地區的市價公寓起價大約在 7 萬到 8 萬美元左右，這與歷史標準相比低得驚人。

So we're clearly headed in the right way. And the one thing about supply, even though it may be hard to pinpoint is it back half of the year or beginning of the year, does it fall into '25 or '26. The reality is over a three- or four-year period. It's absolutely knowable what the supply, what the deliveries are going to be in Camden's markets.

所以很明顯，我們正朝著正確的方向前進。關於供給問題，雖然很難確定具體情況，但要判斷是上半年還是年初的情況，是屬於 2025 年還是 2026 年。實際情況是，這需要三到四年的時間。完全可以知道卡姆登市場的供應和配送。

So we're very encouraged by that. And we think that we will have opportunities to either to continue our acquisition program or to make some of the -- look at some of these developments that we have in our legacy land. But anyway, it looks very constructive based on Witten's data looking out for the next couple of years.

我們對此感到非常鼓舞。我們認為我們將有機會繼續推進我們的收購計劃，或對我們在傳統土地上的一些開發項目進行一些改進。但無論如何，根據維騰的數據來看，展望未來幾年，前景看起來非常樂觀。

Yes. And on the job side of the equation, Witten has job growth coming down. And most of the -- so job growth in this model -- in their model, shows slowing job growth. Because if you look at job growth in 2024 was higher than job growth in 2025 so far, and they have taken those numbers down, and they have those numbers coming down again in '26. And I think as -- I think they have that 1 million jobs being formed in 2026.

是的。而就就業方面而言，維滕的就業成長正在下降。而且，該模型中的大部分就業成長數據表明，就業成長正在放緩。因為如果你看一下 2024 年的就業成長率，你會發現它高於 2025 年目前的就業成長率，而他們已經下調了這些數字，而且他們預計 2026 年的就業成長率還會繼續下降。我認為——我認為他們計劃在 2026 年創造 100 萬個就業機會。

And I think the -- when you think about the multifamily demand component, jobs are important. And as long as we're continuing to have some job growth, you're going to continue to have decent multifamily demand because you're not going to have -- unless you have massive interest rates going down or something that sparks the homebuilding market, you still have the apartment rents are still the most affordable. They've ever been relative to homeownership and relative to wage growth and all that. So we don't need as much job growth because we have so much less supply coming into the market to drive those numbers that Witten has put out the 4% in 2026 and the 5% plus in '27 to '28.

我認為－當你考慮多戶住宅需求因素時，就業是一個重要因素。只要就業市場持續成長，多戶住宅的需求就會繼續保持良好勢頭，因為除非利率大幅下降或出現刺激房屋建設市場的因素，否則公寓租金仍然是最實惠的。它們一直都與房屋擁有率、薪資成長等等因素有關。因此，我們不需要那麼多的就業成長，因為進入市場的供應量少得多，不足以推動這些數字的成長。威滕預測，2026 年的就業成長率將達到 4%，2027 年至 2028 年的就業成長率將超過 5%。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb，Piper Sandler。

Rick, just a question on private credit. Certainly been a growing theme and in speaking to people. It sounds like for banks -- it's much more lucrative from a credit reserve perspective to make loans to private credit versus construction loans. But given there's no free lunch in real estate, and we've had blows in the past, do you think the growth in private credit as it pertains to funding real estate development is something to be worried about? Or your view is right now because of how much they -- the coupons in those loans and the fact that merchant guys are having trouble anyway putting deals together that you're not too concerned about the private credit sort of flooding real estate development and causing issues down the way.

里克，我有個關於私人信貸的問題。這無疑是一個日益普遍的話題，我在與人們交談時也深有體會。聽起來對銀行來說，從信貸儲備的角度來看，向私人信貸機構發放貸款比向建築業發放貸款更有利可圖。但鑑於房地產行業沒有免費的午餐，而且我們過去也遭受過打擊，您認為私人信貸在房地產開發融資方面的增長是否值得擔憂？或者你現在的觀點是正確的，是因為這些貸款中的優惠券數量，以及商家們本來就很難達成交易，所以你不太擔心私人信貸湧入房地產開發領域，並在未來造成問題。

No, I don't think so at all. I think because when you think about the private credit, I mean, somebody getting a mezz loan, if you can get a construction loan at a reasonable number, the mezz loans are double-digit returns. And that just puts pressure on the numbers for a developer to get their deal done. So I don't look at that as -- I mean, if it was like 6%, 7% money or 8% money maybe, but not if it's 10 to 13.

不，我完全不這麼認為。我認為，當你考慮私人信貸時，我的意思是，如果有人獲得夾層貸款，如果你能以合理的數字獲得建築貸款，那麼夾層貸款的回報率是兩位數的。這就給開發商帶來了壓力，迫使他們盡快完成交易。所以我不認為——我的意思是，如果是 6%、7% 或 8% 的收益，那或許可以考慮，但如果是 10% 到 13%，那就不行了。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim，BMO資本市場。

On the revised blended guidance of a little bit under 1% in the second half of the year, suggest that suggests an acceleration in new lease rates in the second -- from the second quarter renewals are being sent out at 3.6%. So I was wondering how much visibility you have on new lease rates for this quarter and how you compare the third quarter versus the fourth quarter in terms of blending?

根據修訂後的下半年綜合指導，略低於 1%，這表明第二季新租賃價格將加速上漲——第二季續租價格為 3.6%。所以我想知道您對本季的新租賃價格有多少了解，以及您如何比較第三季和第四季的混合？

Yes, absolutely. So if you look on a blended basis for the second quarter, we were a positive 70 basis points -- and we are assuming a slight deceleration from that in the third quarter to, call it, just under 1%. What I will tell you is keep in mind that we're now through July, and remember that new leases are generally about 25 days ahead of schedule and renewals are about 60 days ahead of schedule.

是的，絕對的。因此，如果從第二季的綜合數據來看，我們實現了 70 個基點的正成長——我們預計第三季增速將略有放緩，達到略低於 1%。我要告訴你們的是，現在已經是七月底了，記住，新租約通常會提前 25 天左右生效，續約通常會提前 60 天左右生效。

So we've got pretty good visibility all the way through the third quarter. The other thing that we know is we know where we are in occupancy, and we've got very good visibility of where occupancy looks for 60 days out. So that positions us pretty well to understand what the fourth quarter should look like. So feel very good about our assumptions and very good about the visibility that we have to ensure that we can make these numbers.

因此，我們對第三季的情況都有相當清晰的了解。我們也知道，我們了解目前的入住率情況，並且對未來 60 天的入住率走勢有非常清楚的了解。因此，這讓我們能夠比較準確地了解第四季的情況。所以，我們對我們的假設感到非常有信心，也對我們能夠確保實現這些目標的可見性感到非常有信心。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Rick, do you think the high levels of supply and attractive pricing and concessions are pulling forward any demand from the future Obviously, that's the whole point of lower prices. So I'm just wondering if some component of the record demand we're seeing is due to prices being so attractive and if maybe that might tail off if there was a pricing recovery.

瑞克，你認為高供應量、優惠價格和各種折扣是否會提前刺激未來的需求？顯然，這就是低價的全部意義。所以我想知道，我們目前看到的創紀錄需求是否部分是由於價格極具吸引力造成的，如果價格回升，這種需求是否會減弱。

No, I don't think so because when you think about it, if you look at our new lease rent to income ratio is 18.9%. And so there's a big room between -- for PPO getting really cheaper in today on a relative basis, right? And so I don't think we're pulling demand forward because the apartment demand doesn't really operate that way. Household formation is created when people move out of their parents' homes, or they get a new job or something different like that. And so because of the affordability of apartments today, I think we have room to run.

不，我不這麼認為，因為仔細想想，我們新的租賃租金收入比是 18.9%。因此，PPO 保險在今天相對而言會變得更便宜，這其中還有很大的空間，對吧？所以我認為我們並沒有提前拉動需求，因為公寓需求實際上並非如此運作。當人們搬出父母的家，或找到新工作或經歷其他類似情況時，家庭就會形成。正因為如今公寓價格實惠，我認為我們還有發展空間。

So if you think about a $2,000 a month lease and you put a 4% increase on that, it's not a massive number. And on a relative basis, since the consumers are getting a really good deal today on apartments because of supply and demand dynamics they have a capacity to pay more in rent.

所以，如果你考慮每月 2000 美元的租金，然後在此基礎上增加 4%，這並不是一個巨大的數字。從相對角度來看，由於供需關係，消費者如今能以非常優惠的價格買到公寓，因此他們有能力支付更高的租金。

And as long as our teams are delivering the kind of customer service that they have been, then the folks are, I'm living here, I like it. You're taking care of me well. And yes, okay, I get it. You have to -- I need a 4% or 5% rent increase. You're talking about a small amount of money on a relative basis to a very, very well-healed consumer. As long as we provide the service to them, I think we can get those kind of rent increases in the future. So I don't think we're pulling demand forward, and I think our customers are definitely well positioned to pay more.

只要我們的團隊能夠繼續提供像以往一樣優質的客戶服務，那麼大家就會覺得，我住在這裡，我喜歡這裡。你把我照顧得很好。是的，好吧，我明白了。你必須－我需要漲租4%或5%。對於一位經濟非常富裕的消費者來說，這只是一筆相對較小的金額。只要我們繼續為他們提供服務，我認為將來我們就能獲得那種程度的租金上漲。所以我認為我們並沒有提前刺激需求，而且我認為我們的客戶絕對有能力支付更高的價格。

Rob Stevenson, Janney.

羅布史蒂文森，詹尼。

How aggressive are you pursuing kitchen and bath renovations as well as the larger scale redevelopments at this point in the cycle. Can you talk about what you're going to be spending in '25 on that bucket what the expected yields are?

在這個階段，您對廚房和浴室翻新以及更大規模的重建項目的推進力度有多大？可以談談2025年你打算在這個投資項目上投入多少資金，以及預期收益是多少嗎？

Yes, absolutely. What I'll tell you is we continue to go after repositions, it just makes a ton of sense to us. If you look at what we're doing this year. This year, we're going to do around almost 3,000 units. And we're generating an 8% to 10% return, which works out to be about $150 per door in additional rent -- and so this just makes so much sense to us.

是的，絕對的。我可以告訴你的是，我們會繼續尋求重新定位，這對我們來說非常有意義。看看我們今年都在做什麼。今年，我們計劃生產近3000台。我們獲得了 8% 到 10% 的回報，相當於每扇門額外獲得約 150 美元的租金——所以這對我們來說非常有意義。

And in addition, it makes sense no matter where you are in the cycle. But when you're in the point of cycle where you've got a lot of excess supply realize that if you can go in and you can do a kitchens and bathrooms program, you can effectively make an asset that's 15 years old look like it's brand new. And that is a huge competitive advantage when we've got brand-new assets directly next door to us because that brand new asset has got a much higher basis than we have. And therefore, they've got to charge much higher rent.

此外，無論你處於週期的哪個階段，這都很有道理。但是，當你處於供應過剩的周期階段時，要知道，如果你能進去進行廚房和浴室翻新，你就可以有效地讓一個 15 年的房產看起來像全新的一樣。當我們的隔壁有全新的資產時，這將是一個巨大的競爭優勢，因為這些全新的資產的成本基礎比我們現有的資產高得多。因此，他們不得不收取更高的租金。

Our asset has a lower basis, but it looks just like a brand-new asset because we've gone in, we've refreshed that kitchen, we refreshed the bathroom. And then generally, when we build assets, we make sure that they have timeless exteriors. And so when we do all of that, we're able to compete really, really well against that brand-new asset.

我們的資產成本較低，但看起來就像全新的資產一樣，因為我們已經進行了翻新，包括廚房和浴室。而且通常情況下，我們在打造資產時，會確保它們擁有永恆的外觀。因此，當我們做到這一切時，我們就能夠與這個全新的資產展開非常非常激烈的競爭。

So yes, this is something that you will continue to see us do. It is one of the best returns we can have out there. And by the way, we're really good at doing it. We've done so many of these over the past 10, 15 years that it just makes sense for us to continue.

是的，你們還會繼續看到我們這樣做。這是我們能獲得的最佳回報之一。順便說一句，我們真的很擅長做這件事。在過去 10 到 15 年裡，我們已經做了很多這樣的事情，所以繼續做下去是理所當然的。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

Rich Hightower，巴克萊銀行。

So I think if you decompose rent growth at least over the past couple of years, obviously, a lot of it's come on the back of renewals and high retention rates. And so if you were to sort of unwind that and think of what could cause that to go in the other direction, what do you think it would be? I mean -- and some of it's been referred to, whether it's jobs or mortgage rates declining and the housing market opening up again, but what would you say?

所以我覺得，如果你分析過去幾年的租金成長情況，很明顯，其中很大一部分成長都得益於續租和較高的租戶留存率。所以，如果你要回過頭來思考一下，是什麼原因導致事情朝著相反的方向發展，你覺得會是什麼呢？我的意思是——其中一些因素已經被提及，例如就業或抵押貸款利率下降以及房地產市場重新開放，但您怎麼看？

I would say it's a recession where the consumer definitely gets stressed and you have job losses and things like that. That clearly would be something that would be a negative for the apartment markets. Generally, in a recession, if it's an easy one or a very shallow one, you have hunkered down mentality. So a lot of people don't leave if they don't have to. But if you lost your job and you have to then downsize and readjust your budget, to whether you move in with a room made or a friend or family or whatever, that's probably the biggest issue.

我認為這是一場經濟衰退，消費者一定會感到壓力，還會出現失業等問題。這顯然會對公寓市場產生不利影響。一般來說，在經濟衰退時期，如果衰退程度較輕或非常輕微，人們往往會抱著一種畏縮不前的心態。所以很多人如果不是迫不得已，就不會離開。但是，如果你失業了，不得不縮小居住規模並調整預算，無論是搬去和朋友、家人或其他人合住，這可能是最大的問題。

I don't think the home ownership issue is so far away now. I mean the math I've been spending a lot of time looking at this, you need 150 basis points of of reduction in the long-term rate in order for the housing market to get serious legs. And so I don't think that's going to be a big issue, but I think it's really just the overall economy.

我認為住房所有權問題現在已經不遠了。我的意思是，我花了很多時間研究數學，長期利率需要下降 150 個基點，房地產市場才能真正走上正軌。所以我認為這不會是個大問題，但我認為這真的只是整體經濟問題。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克雷默，摩根士丹利。

Just wanted to ask, I know we've talked about the Witten Advisors' forecast for the next few years and it's really helpful to sort of their assumptions on underlying. If you think about their rent growth, right 4%, 5%, I think you said as early as 2026 even wondering sort of what your view is in terms of achievability of that. Do you think that sort of supply deliveries lease-up will be in a good enough spot that rent growth could average million average 4% in 2026? Or do you sort of take the under on that and maybe that's more of a '27, '28 story?

我只是想問一下，我知道我們討論過 Witten Advisors 對未來幾年的預測，了解他們對基本面的假設真的很有幫助。如果你考慮他們的租金增長，對吧，4%、5%，我想你甚至說過最早到2026年就會達到這個水平，我想知道你認為這在可實現性方面是什麼看法。你認為這種供應交付和租賃情況會足夠好，以至於到 2026 年租金成長率平均能達到 4% 嗎？還是你覺得那會是小幅波動，也許那是 2027 年、2028 年的故事？

Well, if the economy holds up the way it is and Witten has been a pretty good forecaster over the years. Obviously, we have a few months to go to 2026. But that's why we use Witten, they're pretty good. So I can't -- I'm not going to pound the table right now and say, I know what '26 and '27 is going to be. But I do know the facts are the facts the supply is down, and deliveries are going down 50% in our markets by 2026 compared to '23 and '24.

嗯，如果經濟情勢維持現狀的話，而且多年來維滕的預測一直相當準確。顯然，距離 2026 年還有幾個月的時間。但我們選擇使用Witten的產品，因為它們確實不錯。所以我不能——我現在不會拍桌子說，我知道 2026 年和 2027 年會是什麼樣子。但我知道事實就是事實，供應量下降了，到 2026 年，我們市場的交付量將比 2023 年和 2024 年下降 50%。

Demand continues to be strong and unless the economy unwinds or something really crazy happens. '26 should be a really good year. It should be an inflection point for the Sunbelt market to start having reasonable growth compared to the past.

需求仍然強勁，除非經濟出現下滑或發生什麼特別糟糕的事情，否則2026年應該會是非常好的一年。與過去相比，這應該會成為陽光地帶市場開始出現合理成長的轉捩點。

And if you think about it this way, San Francisco is one of the better markets today in growth, right? The reason is it went down so far, they're still digging out of the hole that they dug during COVID and are still not back to 2019 rents yet. And so we are kind of treading water in the Sunbelt markets because of this excess supply situation. But once that supply goes away, all the setup is just really good. And so unless the economy unwinds or something dramatically weird happens and I think those are pretty good projections.

如果你這麼想的話，舊金山是當今成長最快的市場之一，對吧？原因是租金下跌得太厲害了，他們還在努力擺脫新冠疫情期間造成的困境，租金水準還沒有恢復到 2019 年的水準。因此，由於供應過剩，我們在陽光地帶市場基本上處於停滯不前的狀態。但一旦這種供應消失，所有的準備工作就都完美了。所以，除非經濟出現衰退或發生一些非常奇怪的事情，我認為這些預測相當準確。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is Jamie. I was wondering, was there anything that surprised you about the construction and lease-up process for the SFR communities -- and are you looking at more projects within the SFR space? Or are there any takeaways that may apply to apartments?

這是傑米。我想知道，在單戶住宅社區的建設和租賃過程中，有沒有什麼令您感到驚訝的事情？您是否正在考慮在單戶住宅領域開展更多專案？或者，有沒有什麼經驗教訓可以適用於公寓？

Yes. So what I'd tell you about the SFRs, obviously, we have two of them. And just as a quick reminder, one is in far northern suburbs of Houston. One is in the far southwest suburbs of Houston. The one that is in the northern suburbs of Houston, we actually just stabilized that asset this year -- excuse me, this quarter, it was, as I've talked about on several calls, an incredibly slow lease-up, we were warned that this particular product type is a slow lease-up, but I think it did surprise us a little bit.

是的。所以關於SFR，很顯然，我們有兩艘。順便提醒一下，其中一個位於休士頓北部遠郊。其中一個位於休士頓西南遠郊。位於休士頓北部郊區的那處房產，我們實際上今年才穩定下來——抱歉，是本季。正如我在幾次電話會議上提到的，它的租賃速度非常緩慢。我們之前就被告知這種類型的房產租賃速度很慢，但我認為它確實讓我們有點驚訝。

This particular demographic shows up on a Saturday. It takes a tour comes back a next Saturday with their friends, takes a tour, comes back to the next Saturday, we would take measures and start measuring bedrooms, et cetera, to make sure that their furniture can fit. The good news, though, is if it takes you that long to make a decision, I think you're probably going to be pretty sticky. And so you'll stay with us for quite some time.

這個特定人群會在周六出現。他們會先參觀一下，然後在下週六帶著朋友再來參觀一次，再到下週六，我們會測量尺寸，開始測量臥室等等，以確保他們的家具能夠擺放得下。不過，好消息是，如果你花了那麼長時間才做出決定，我想你可能會非常堅持己見。所以你會在我們這裡待相當長一段時間。

And so that is certainly our hope. If you look at our asset, which is in far Southwest Houston, and that's our -- that's our long (inaudible) community, that one is a little bit further behind just because they got started later. And it is having very similar lease-up trends that we saw with the other assets. So we think that's just unique to this particular product type. So I don't think there's really any look through at all in terms of leasing.

所以，這當然是我們所希望的。如果你看看我們的資產，它位於休士頓西南郊，那是我們——那是我們綿延的（聽不清楚）社區，它稍微落後一些，只是因為他們起步晚。而且它的租賃成長趨勢與我們在其他資產中看到的非常相似。所以我們認為這只是該特定產品類型所獨有的現象。所以我覺得在租賃方面根本不存在任何透明度問題。

And the proof to that is if you think about our Camden Village District community, which we're in the middle of leasing up today, is -- that particular community has averaged 27 leases a month in the second quarter. when we underwrite a lease-up, we assume 20 leases a month. So to have 27 leases a month is far outpacing what we expected, and it just goes to show that there is still incredible demand for traditional multifamily.

證據就是我們目前正在招租的卡姆登村社區——該社區第二季平均每月有 27 份租約。而我們在評估招租情況時，通常假設每月有 20 份租約。因此，每月 27 份租賃合約遠遠超出了我們的預期，這也表明傳統多戶住宅仍然有巨大的需求。

Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

Linda Tsai，傑富瑞集團。

If you were to hit the high end of NOI growth this year, do you think it's more likely you see it from higher revenues or lower expenses or some combo?

如果今年你的淨營業收入成長達到預期上限，你認為更有可能是透過更高的收入、更低的支出還是兩者的結合來實現的？

I think it's likely going to be from some combo. That being said, -- we still are waiting to finalize some appeals on the tax side, which could end up being a positive to us. we continue to be pleasantly surprised by how low our insurance claims are. And so if that trend continues, that could absolutely be a positive to us. But by the same token, I'm incredibly happy with how well we're managing occupancy and very happy with how well we're managing delinquency. So I think it could be a combination.

我認為很可能是某種組合造成的。話雖如此，我們仍在等待稅務方面的一些上訴最終結果，這最終可能對我們有利。此外，我們的保險理賠金額之低也讓我們感到驚喜。因此，如果這種趨勢繼續下去，這對我們來說絕對是一個好消息。但同樣地，我對我們目前的入住率管理非常滿意，對目前的欠款管理也非常滿意。所以我認為可能是多種因素共同作用的結果。

(inaudible), Baird.

（聽不清楚）貝爾德。

When you're looking at acquisitions currently in lease-up, are you assuming maybe a longer lease-up period now versus the start of the year?

在檢視目前處於租賃期的收購項目時，您是否考慮到目前的租賃期可能比年初時更長？

No, not really. I mean, if you think about the acquisitions that we have, so we have one in Austin which is our Camden Leander community. This was bought in lease-up. We knew that it was going to be a slow process just because of the amount of the amount of competition that is in Austin. And by the way, we talk about the competition in Austin, so much.

不，其實不是。我的意思是，想想我們已經收購的項目，例如我們在奧斯汀的 Camden Leander 社區。這是在租賃期滿時購買的。我們知道這將是一個緩慢的過程，因為奧斯汀的競爭非常激烈。順便說一句，我們經常談論奧斯汀的比賽。

We cannot forget that the demand in Austin is just extraordinary, but we knew that was going to be slower. We feel very good about how that's progressing. And then our other community that has a little bit of a lease-up need is our Nashville community, and that's going just fine. I don't know, Laurie, if you want to add anything about Lander.

我們不能忘記奧斯汀的需求非常旺盛，但我們知道那裡的出貨速度會比較慢。我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意。而我們另一個需要增加租賃房源的社區是納許維爾社區，目前進展順利。勞裡，我不知道你是否想補充一些關於蘭德的事情。

I mean I think for our Austin deal, overall story is still being shaped by supply. There's just a lot of competition in that market -- so it's just a near-term supply challenge that will work through and long-term great asset and a growing job market of Austin, and just a compelling play our teams are fully engaged, and we'll work through this quickly.

我的意思是，我認為就我們在奧斯汀的交易而言，整體情況仍然取決於供應情況。那個市場競爭非常激烈——所以這只是短期供應的挑戰，但會得到解決。從長遠來看，奧斯汀是一個巨大的資產，就業市場也在不斷成長，這是一個極具吸引力的投資機會。我們的團隊已經全力以赴，我們會盡快解決這個問題。

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya，德意志銀行。

I just wanted to go back to assumptions around blended lease rates for the second half of '25. Again, obviously, you're one of the few apartment routes that's expecting acceleration in that number. And while a lot of your peers are not already downgrading that number.

我只是想回顧一下 2025 年下半年的混合租賃利率的假設。顯然，你是少數幾條預計車流量將達到如此之高的公寓路線之一。雖然你的許多同行還沒有降低這個數字。

So just trying to understand a little bit better why you're expecting acceleration? Are we just not looking at the data on a of a micro market basis, but that your geographic exposure is a little bit different. Is there anything happening from an operational perspective? Just trying to understand that because it's just an outlier versus everybody else?

所以，我只是想更能理解一下，你為什麼會期待加速？我們是不是沒有從微觀市場的角度來看數據，而是你們的地域覆蓋範圍略有不同？從營運角度來看，有什麼進展嗎？我只是想弄清楚，這是因為它與其他所有人相比都是一個異常值嗎？

Yes. I mean, so what you have to look at, once again, as I talked about earlier, is we've got pretty good visibility into the third quarter. And so we're assuming that our blend for the third quarter is just under 1%. Keep in mind that our blend from the second quarter was 70 basis points. So we're not talking about that significant of an acceleration.

是的。我的意思是，所以你再次要關注的是，正如我之前提到的，我們對第三季的情況有相當清晰的了解。因此，我們假設第三季的混合比例略低於 1%。請記住，我們第二季的混合利率為 70 個基點。所以我們說的並不是那麼顯著的加速度。

And then when we take this out into the fourth quarter, we're assuming -- we're assuming that the fourth-quarter blend looks a little bit like the second-quarter blend. Remember that the reason why we haven't had more pricing power in our markets is not a demand issue, it's a supply issue. And we know that we are rapidly working through the excess supplies in our market. That is why whiten and others believe that 2026 is going to be so strong.

然後，當我們把這個數據放到第四季時，我們假設——我們假設第四季的組合看起來有點像第二季的組合。請記住，我們在市場上缺乏更多定價權的原因不是需求問題，而是供應問題。我們知道，我們正在迅速消化市場上的過剩供應。這就是為什麼懷特和其他人認為2026年將會非常強勁的原因。

So you obviously have to start heading towards that direction of having pricing power as -- in order to make those type of 26 numbers, and you're going to start seeing that as we continue through the third quarter and the fourth quarter. because supply is coming down at such a rapid level. I mean keep in mind, we keep talking about record levels of supply. We're also setting records for absorption. And as we continue to absorb all that excess supply becomes easier and easier on a comparable periods for us.

所以很明顯，你必須開始朝著擁有定價權的方向努力——為了實現26這樣的數字，你會在第三季和第四季開始看到這種情況，因為供應量正在以如此快的速度下降。我的意思是，請記住，我們一直在談論供應量創紀錄的水平。我們在吸收方面也創下了紀錄。隨著我們不斷吸收過剩的供應，在類似的時期內，對我們來說也變得越來越容易。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

Alex Kim，Zelman & Associates。

I just wanted to ask about the trajectory of rent growth recovery so far. What's been different about the leasing environment this year just compared to historical norms or even your own expectations. Looking across the sector, uncertainty has certainly been a common theme. And so is it just about the lingering effects from the record high supply or something else?

我只是想了解目前租金成長復甦的軌跡。與歷史常態甚至您自己的預期相比，今年的租賃環境有哪些不同？縱觀整個產業，不確定性無疑是一個普遍存在的問題。所以，這只是創紀錄的高供應量帶來的持續影響，還是有其他原因？

Well, the term uncertainty is probably the most overused term in the last two earnings calls season. So I'm going to try to stay away from that. What I will tell you is that we are seeing the typical peak leasing, which is in the second quarter and third quarter, that is playing out as normal. So that's not much of a distinction between what we typically see in other years. And then when we get to the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter looks a little bit stronger in our estimate today than it would in a typical year.

嗯，在過去兩季財報電話會議上，「不確定性」這個詞可能是被濫用最嚴重的詞彙了。所以我打算盡量避免那樣做。我可以告訴大家的是，我們看到典型的租賃高峰期（通常在第二季和第三季）正在如常發生。所以這和往年我們看到的情況並沒有太大差別。然後到了第四季度，根據我們目前的預測，第四季的業績看起來比往年同期好一些。

But Keep in mind, once again, as I just mentioned, you've got supply that is getting absorbed at record paces. And so that does make sense that you would see a little bit higher or a little bit increased pricing power in the fourth quarter than typical. So there's nothing that -- it's a little more muted in terms of the swing from the first quarter through the peak leasing season than we typically see, but it does follow the same curve.

但請記住，正如我剛才提到的，目前的供應正在以創紀錄的速度吸收。因此，第四季度定價能力略高於往常，這是有道理的。所以沒有什麼特別之處——從第一季到租賃旺季的波動幅度比我們通常看到的要小一些，但曲線仍然相同。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb，Piper Sandler。

Just going back to the back half Alex, you mentioned that you expect third quarter to be a little bit better. But if we look at your implied fourth quarter versus the Street, fourth quarter implied for you guys is below the Street. So is this a function of the dispositions weighing down? Or is it also just how the rents are trending as well?

回到下半場，Alex，你提到你預計第三節會好一點。但如果我們看一下你們對第四季業績的預期與華爾街的預期，就會發現你們對第四季業績的預期低於華爾街的預期。所以這是負面情緒造成的嗎？或者，這只是租金走勢的體現嗎？

No. It is absolutely a function of dispositions. So keep in mind that we are still forecasting that we're going to hit the midpoint of both our acquisitions and dispositions guidance, which is $750 million for each. Keep in mind that there is a sort of short-term dilution that comes from those transactions as we're trading out some of our oldest, most capital-intensive assets for newer assets although they are -- although there is some dilution, we anticipate that the newer assets will grow faster. And so they will overtake that dilution in relatively short order. But you certainly are going to see a slight drag in the second half of the year, entirely driven by the recycling program.

不。這完全取決於個人性格。所以請記住，我們仍然預測我們將達到收購和處置指導方針的中點，即每項7.5億美元。請記住，這些交易會帶來某種短期稀釋，因為我們用一些最老舊、資本密集型的​​資產換取了更新的資產，儘管——儘管存在一些稀釋，但我們預計更新的資產增長速度會更快。因此，它們將在相對較短的時間內彌補這種稀釋效應。但可以肯定的是，下半年經濟成長將略有放緩，這完全是由回收計畫造成的。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

Rich Hightower，巴克萊銀行。

Actually, a question for Rick. I was just curious, given your, I guess, inroads at the Dallas Fed, do you find that your counterparts there are any smarter than the rest of us as far as the economy goes and making predictions.

其實，我有個問題想問里克。我只是好奇，鑑於您在達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行取得的成就，您是否覺得那裡的同行在經濟方面和預測方面比我們其他人更聰明？

That's a loaded question. I am definitely impressed with the data. I'm impressed with their independence too because if you think about how the Fed and the FMOC work is that they do -- so the district offices, including the Dallas Fed, they do a bottom-up analysis of the economy.

這是一個棘手的問題。這些數據確實讓我印象深刻。我也很欣賞他們的獨立性，因為如果你想想聯準會和聯邦行銷辦公室（FMOC）的工作方式，你會發現他們所做的事——包括達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行在內的地區辦事處，都是自下而上地分析經濟。

And so I serve on the board with a lot of diverse groups, whether it's airlines or universities or chemicals, oil and gas and what we primarily do in our meetings as we talk about what's going on in our actual businesses, right? And so I bring to the table, obviously, multifamily. And I think most of you know that I'm sit on the board of the largest privately held homebuilder in America, and I'm also the Chairman of the Port of Houston. So I have a broad view of the economy.

因此，我擔任許多不同團體的董事會成員，無論是航空公司、大學還是化學、石油和天然氣公司，我們在會議上主要討論的是我們實際業務中正在發生的事情，對吧？因此，很顯然，我能帶來的是多戶住宅計畫。我想你們大多數人都知道，我是美國最大的私人住宅建築商的董事會成員，同時我也是休士頓港務局主席。所以我對經濟有比較全面的了解。

Now what they do is they take that broad view and then they just fill it into an economic forecast and use a lot of anecdotal discussions that we have. So I would say, generally, I'm definitely impressed with their analytical capabilities, but when we're debating what's happening in the economy, I mean, it's a mixed bag, right?

現在他們的做法是，他們採取這種宏觀視角，然後將其融入經濟預測中，並大量運用我們之間的軼事討論。所以總的來說，他們的分析能力確實給我留下了深刻的印象，但是當我們討論經濟狀況時，情況就比較複雜了，對吧？

I mean -- so I think -- I don't know that they're any smarter than anybody else, but I think they are definitely meticulous in how they go through their data and how they go through their analysis. And their each district is independent, and they have their own kind of group and their own autonomous. And then they take that to DC when they're at the FMOC meeting, and they all debate everything that's going on in the districts with the committee and then they reached their decisions.

我的意思是——所以我覺得——我不知道他們是否比其他人更聰明，但我認為他們在處理數據和分析方面絕對一絲不苟。每個地區都是獨立的，它們有自己的團體和自治組織。然後，當他們在華盛頓特區參加聯邦行銷委員會 (FMOC) 會議時，他們會把這些情況帶到會場，與委員會討論各區正在發生的一切，然後做出決定。

I think they're pretty smart people and they're very methodical and they definitely are a political. So the discussion of of raising or lowering interest rates because a political figure wants them lowered, that's probably never going to happen as they are independent, right? And you've seen that through some of the discussion with them. So it's definitely been an interesting thing for me because I get a lot of really good economic data from other sectors that really help me and help Camden navigate these interesting times in waters.

我認為他們都很聰明，做事很有條理，而且他們絕對是有政治頭腦的。所以，因為某個政治人物想降低利率而討論提高或降低利率，這可能永遠不會發生，因為他們是獨立的，對吧？從你和他們的一些討論中，你已經看到了這一點。所以這對我來說絕對是一件很有趣的事情，因為我可以從其他行業獲得很多非常好的經濟數據，這真的幫助了我，也幫助卡姆登應對這些有趣的時期。

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Rick Campo for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給里克·坎波先生，請他作閉幕致詞。

Great. Well, I appreciate the time today that everybody is spending with us. And if you have any other questions, -- you can call Kim or Alex or me or Keith, Laurie. So we're available for follow-ups, and we will see you in the fall. Have a great rest of your summer.

偉大的。非常感謝大家今天抽空陪伴我們。如果您還有其他問題，可以打電話給 Kim、Alex、我、Keith 或 Laurie。所以我們會安排後續跟進，秋天再見。祝你有個愉快的暑假。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位蒞臨今天的報告會。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。