Camden Property Trust (CPT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

早安，歡迎參加卡姆登地產信託 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係資深副總裁 Kim Callahan。

Joining me today are Rick Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman; and Alex Jessett, President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available shortly after the call ends. And please note, this event is being recorded.

今天與我一起出席的還有卡姆登董事長兼執行長 Rick Campo；基斯‧奧登，執行副主席；以及總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。今天的活動將透過我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分進行網路直播，通話結束後不久將進行重播。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想建議大家，我們將根據我們當前的期望和信念做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述並不是對未來績效的保證，並且涉及可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC and we encourage you to review them. Any forward-looking statements made on today's call represent management's current opinions, and the company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events.

有關這些風險的更多資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到，我們鼓勵您查看它們。今天電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表管理層目前的意見，本公司不承擔因後續事件而更新或補充這些陳述的義務。

As a reminder, Camden's complete third quarter 2024 earnings release is available in the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and it includes reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures, which will be discussed on this call. We would like to respect everyone's time and complete our call within one hour. (Event Instructions)

提醒一下，卡姆登完整的 2024 年第三季度收益發布可在我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分查看，其中包括對非 GAAP 財務指標的調節，這些將在本次電話會議上討論。我們希望尊重每個人的時間並在一小時內完成我們的通話。（活動須知）

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Rick Campo.

此時，我會將電話轉給 Rick Campo。

Thanks, Kim. The theme for on-hold music today is coming together and getting along. With our national election just four days away and what looks like an even split among voters, a message of unity seems appropriate.

謝謝，金。今天等待音樂的主題是聚在一起、相處。距離我們的全國大選只有四天了，而且選民之間的分歧似乎是均勻的，團結的訊息似乎是合適的。

To all of our Camden associates, if you have not already done so, please use the time off Camden allows for you to get out and vote. And whether your preferred candidate wins or loses on Tuesday, please remember Tim McGraw's advice: when the dreams you've been dreaming come to you. When the work you put in is realized. Let yourself feel the pride, but always stay humble in kind.

對於我們卡姆登的所有同事，如果您還沒有這樣做，請利用卡姆登允許您出去投票的時間。無論您喜歡的候選人在周二獲勝還是失敗，請記住蒂姆·麥格勞的建議：當您一直夢想的夢想實現時。當你付出的努力得到實現時。讓自己感到自豪，但始終保持謙虛。

We had a good third quarter with earnings ahead of expectations and the rest of the year is playing out as we anticipated. Apartment absorption in our markets has been the best in 20 years, excluding 2021. Strong multi-family demand continues to be driven by strong job growth.

我們的第三季表現良好，獲利超出預期，今年剩餘時間的表現也符合我們的預期。我們市場的公寓吸收量是 20 年來最好的（2021 年除外）。強勁的就業成長持續推動多戶家庭的強勁需求。

Camden markets are growing faster than the US in migration to Camden markets and fewer consumers choosing homeownership and are renting well-managed apartments from Camden. Apartment rents continue to be more affordable than buying a home. High prices for homes, mortgage rates, property taxes and insurance continue to support rental demand, and this is not changing anytime soon.

卡姆登市場向卡姆登市場的移民成長速度快於美國，選​​擇購屋並從卡姆登租用管理良好的公寓的消費者越來越少。公寓租金仍然比買房更實惠。高房價、抵押貸款利率、財產稅和保險繼續支撐著租賃需求，而且這種情況不會很快改變。

A recent Wall Street Journal article on October 27 titled, This Year's Housing Turnaround Ended Before It Started, reports that 2024 sales of existing homes is on track to be the worst year for housing since 1995. New apartment supply is at an all-time high, 50-year peak, as we all know.

《華爾街日報》最近於10 月27 日發表的一篇題為《今年的房屋市場好轉在開始之前就結束了》的文章報道稱，2024 年現有房屋的銷售量有望成為自1995 年以來房屋市場最糟糕的一年。眾所周知，新公寓供應量正處於 50 年來的最高水準。

And while absorption has been great, filling these apartments has limited meaningful rent growth in most of our markets. Trailing 12-month starts are off 35% with monthly starts off 49% from the highs. This backdrop should put new multi-family starts in the mid-200,000 range next year.

儘管吸收量很大，但在我們的大多數市場中，這些公寓的填充限制了租金的有意義的增長。過去 12 個月的開工率較最高點下降了 35%，月開工率下降了 49%。在這種背景下，明年新開工的多戶住宅數量應在 20 萬棟左右。

Witten Advisers projects rents bottoming out in 2024 and through the first half of '25 and then starting to accelerate to '26 and '27. We look forward to sharing additional details on our strategic plan and future market concentration goals along with our 2025 guidance when we report fourth quarter and full results next year.

Witten Advisers 預計租金將在 2024 年和 25 年上半年觸底，然後開始加速到 26 年和 27 年。我們期待在明年報告第四季度和完整業績時分享有關我們的策略計劃和未來市場集中度目標的更多詳細資訊以及我們的 2025 年指導。

I want to give a big shout out to our Camden teams. Thank you for a great quarter and knowing that they are ready for a strong finish to the year. And thank you for improving the lives of our teammates, our residents and our shareholders, one experience at a time.

我想向我們的卡姆登團隊大聲喊叫。感謝您度過了一個出色的季度，並知道他們已準備好迎接今年的強勁收官。感謝您改善我們的隊友、居民和股東的生活，一次一種體驗。

Keith Oden is up next.

下一個是基斯·奧登。

Thanks, Rick. Our third quarter same-property results had revenues in line with expectations, with slightly lower-than-anticipated operating expenses. Our top markets for same-property revenue growth this quarter were the same as last quarter and included Southern California, Washington, DC Metro, Southeast Florida, Denver and Houston, all with revenue growth above the portfolio average of 0.6% and ranging from up 1% to up 5% for the quarter.

謝謝，瑞克。我們第三季的同業績收入符合預期，營運費用略低於預期。我們本季同物業收入成長的主要市場與上季相同，包括南加州、華盛頓特區都會區、佛羅裡達州東南部、丹佛和休士頓，這些市場的營收成長均高於投資組合平均0.6%，增幅為1 %。

Rental rates for the third quarter showed signed new leases down 2.8% and renewals up 3.6% for a blended rate of up 0.1%, with an average occupancy of 95.5%. Preliminary results for October reflect moderation in both new lease and renewal pricing and in overall occupancy levels.

第三季的租金率顯示，新簽訂的租約下降了 2.8%，續約租約增加了 3.6%，綜合租金率上升了 0.1%，平均入住率為 95.5%。10 月的初步結果反映了新租賃和續租定價以及整體入住率的放緩。

Renewal offers for November and December were sent out with an average increase of 3.5%. Resident retention remains high and turnover remains low with less than 10% of our third quarter move-outs attributed to home purchases.

11月和12月的續約報價平均上漲3.5%。居民保留率仍然很高，流動率仍然很低，第三季因購屋而搬出的人不到 10%。

Net turnover for the third quarter of 2024 was 46% compared to 51% in the third quarter of '23. Year-to-date net turnover was 41% compared to 44% in 2023.

2024 年第三季的淨營業額為 46%，而 2023 年第三季的淨營業額為 51%。今年迄今的淨營業額為 41%，而 2023 年為 44%。

I would also like to encourage all of Team Camden to do three things: number one, get out there and vote. Number two, finish the year strong and number three, always stay humble and kind.

我還想鼓勵卡姆登團隊的全體成員做三件事：第一，走出去投票。第二，堅強地結束這一年；第三，始終保持謙虛和善良。

I'll now turn the call over to Alex Jessett, Camden's President and Chief Financial Officer.

我現在將電話轉給卡姆登總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。

Thanks, Keith. Recently, the Southeast United States experienced two hurricanes, Helene and Milton. And although our thoughts and prayers are with those affected, we are very thankful that our team members and residents were safe, and that we have only minor property damages reported.

謝謝，基斯。近期，美國東南部經歷了兩場颶風「海倫」和「米爾頓」。儘管我們的思念和祈禱與受影響的人們同在，但我們非常感謝我們的團隊成員和居民都安全，而且我們只報告了輕微的財產損失。

We issued a press release shortly after Hurricane Milton with a preliminary assessment leading one of our analysts to ask if Camden communities are built like Fort Knox, to which we replied that we attribute our minimal damage to quality construction, great preparation and a healthy serving of luck.

米爾頓颶風過後不久，我們發布了一份新聞稿，進行了初步評估，我們的一位分析師詢問卡姆登社區是否像諾克斯堡那樣建造，對此我們回答說，我們將損失最小化歸功於高品質的建設、充分的準備和健康的服務。

Quality construction really does matter. And we built over 60% of our Southeast portfolio and great preparation matters, including making sure trees are appropriately trimmed, drains are clear, pools are drained and roots are strong. Solid vendor and supplier relationships to ensure mitigation is prepositioned and great communication with our residents and staff to ensure that communities are storm-ready.

品質建設確實很重要。我們建造了超過 60% 的東南部投資組合，並做好了充分的準備工作，包括確保樹木得到適當修剪、排水溝暢通、水池排水良好以及根繫牢固。穩固的供應商和供應商關係，以確保預先做好緩解措施，並與我們的居民和工作人員進行良好的溝通，以確保社區做好風暴準備。

So thank you, Camden team members for doing such an amazing job to enable us to fare so well through the storms, allowing us to continue to provide quality housing in the incredibly high demand, high-growth Southeast markets.

因此，感謝卡姆登團隊成員所做的如此出色的工作，使我們能夠順利度過風暴，使我們能夠繼續在需求高、增長快的東南市場提供優質住房。

Moving on to our development activities. In the second half of 2024, we commenced construction on approximately $320 million worth of new developments. We anticipate starting an additional $375 million of new developments in the early part of 2025.

繼續我們的開發活動。2024 年下半年，我們開始建造價值約 3.2 億美元的新開發案。我們預計在 2025 年初啟動額外 3.75 億美元的新開發案。

And we plan on starting our remaining owned land parcel, which is a $300 million development in either late 2025 or early 2026. And finally, we have additional land parcels under contract, which may lead to future starts in either 2025 or 2026.

我們計劃在 2025 年底或 2026 年初啟動我們剩餘的自有土地，這是一個耗資 3 億美元的開發案。最後，我們還有額外的合約地塊，這可能會導致未來在 2025 年或 2026 年啟動。

Turning to our financial results. For the third quarter, we reported core FFO of $1.71 per share, $0.03 ahead of the midpoint of our prior quarterly guidance. This outperformance was driven in large part by $0.015 per share and lower-than-anticipated operating expenses, resulting primarily from continued lower core insurance claims.

轉向我們的財務表現。第三季度，我們公佈的核心 FFO 為每股 1.71 美元，比我們先前季度指引的中位數高出 0.03 美元。這一優異表現在很大程度上是由於每股 0.015 美元和低於預期的營運費用推動的，這主要是由於核心保險索賠持續下降。

Additionally, during the third quarter, we had $0.015 per share of favorability, resulting primarily from higher fee income, lower interest expense and lower income tax expense. These favorable line items were driven by the combination of cost savings and additional fee income from our third-party construction business, higher interest income from our cash balances, lower line of credit interest expense, and lower franchise taxes in Tennessee resulting from recently enacted legislative changes to the applicable calculation.

此外，在第三季度，我們的每股優惠為 0.015 美元，這主要是由於費用收入增加、利息費用減少和所得稅費用減少。這些有利的項目是由於我們的第三方建築業務的成本節約和額外費用收入、現金餘額的利息收入增加、信貸利息支出降低以及田納西州最近頒布的立法導致的特許經營稅降低等綜合因素推動的適用計算的變更。

Property revenues for the quarter were in line with our expectations. Last night, we maintained the midpoint of our full year same-store NOI guidance at 0.75%, but narrowed the ranges and slightly adjusted the components. We now anticipate full year same-store revenue growth will be within the range of 1.1% to 1.5% with a midpoint of 1.3%.

本季的房地產收入符合我們的預期。昨晚，我們將全年同店 NOI 指引的中位數維持在 0.75%，但縮小了區間，並對組成部分進行了小幅調整。我們目前預計全年同店營收成長將在 1.1% 至 1.5% 範圍內，中間值為 1.3%。

And full year same-store expense growth will be within the range of 2.1% to 2.5% with a midpoint of 2.3%. Our 20 basis point reduction in full year revenue guidance by slightly lower blended lease trade-out in line with typical seasonality.

全年同店費用成長將在 2.1% 至 2.5% 範圍內，中位數為 2.3%。我們根據典型的季節性因素略微降低了混合租賃交易，從而將全年收入指引下調了 20 個基點。

We are assuming fourth quarter occupancy will be in the range of 95.2% to 95.4%. Blended lease outs will be slightly negative and bad debt will be within the range of 75 to 85 basis points, in line with the full year. Our 55 basis point reduction in full year expense guidance is driven primarily by the assumption of continued lower-than-anticipated insurance and property taxes.

我們假設第四季的入住率將在 95.2% 至 95.4% 之間。混合租賃將略有負值，壞帳將在 75 至 85 個基點範圍內，與全年情況一致。我們將全年費用指引下調 55 個基點，主要是由於保險和財產稅持續低於預期的假設。

We are increasing the midpoint of our full year core FFO from $6.79 to $6.81, which results entirely from the non-property component of our third quarter outperformance. We also provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024.

我們將全年核心 FFO 的中點從 6.79 美元提高到 6.81 美元，這完全歸功於我們第三季度優異表現的非房地產部分。我們也提供了 2024 年第四季的獲利指引。

We expect core FFO per share for the fourth quarter to be within the range of $1.68 to $1.72, representing a $0.01 per share sequential decline at the midpoint, primarily resulting from an approximate $0.01 in higher property NOI, resulting from $0.025 in decreased revenue, driven primarily by the typical seasonality of occupancy, offset entirely by $0.035 in lower property expenses resulting from typical seasonal declines.

我們預計第四季度核心 FFO 每股將在 1.68 美元至 1.72 美元之間，相當於中點每股連續下降 0.01 美元，這主要是由於房地產 NOI 增加約 0.01 美元，而收入減少 0.025 美元，導致主要是由於典型的入住季節性因素造成的，但完全被典型的季節性下降導致的0.035 美元的物業費用降低所抵消。

This $0.01 per share increase in sequential property NOI is entirely offset by a combined $0.015 per share decrease in interest and other income, as we are no longer in a net cash position and fee and asset management income due to the timing of our third-party construction activity.

連續財產 NOI 每股增加 0.01 美元，完全被利息和其他收入每股 0.015 美元的減少所抵消，因為由於第三方的時間安排，我們不再處於淨現金頭寸以及費用和資產管理收入。

And an approximate $0.005 per share increase in net interest expense driven by an approximate $0.01 per share impact of no longer capitalizing interest on development sites that we have decided to not move forward with at the present time, offset by 0.5% in lower interest rates on our floating rate debt.

淨利息支出每股增加約 0.005 美元，這是由於我們目前決定不再推進的開發地點不再資本化利息，導致每股約 0.01 美元的影響，但被 0.5% 的較低利率所抵消。浮動利率債務。

As of today, approximately 80% of our debt is fixed rate. We have less than $200 million outstanding on our $1.2 billion credit facility. Only $65 million of maturities over the next 24 months and less than $270 million left to fund under our existing development pipeline. Our balance sheet remains incredibly strong with net debt-to-EBITDA at 3.9 times.

截至今天，我們大約 80% 的債務是固定利率的。我們 12 億美元的信貸額度中尚未償還的金額不到 2 億美元。未來 24 個月內到期的資金只剩下 6,500 萬美元，而我們現有的開發管道中剩餘資金不到 2.7 億美元。我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁，淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率為 3.9 倍。

At this time, we will open the call up to questions.

此時，我們將開放電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citi.

（操作員指示）Eric Wolfe，花旗銀行。

If you think about the four pre-development projects that you paused, and how much would rents have needed to be up from current levels before those projects made sense? And then more generally, how much do you think rents need to rise relative to construction costs for development to be more economic?

如果您考慮您暫停的四個預開發項目，那麼在這些項目有意義之前，租金需要從當前水平上漲多少？更一般地說，您認為租金相對於建築成本需要上漲多少才能使開發更加經濟？

Well, let me just start off broadly first, and then I'll answer the question about what rents need to do because clearly, what's happened in the development market today is that construction costs have not come down and rents have come down. And clearly, the supply that is coming into the market has had a muting effect on rents in all markets, right?

好吧，讓我先從大體開始，然後我會回答關於租金需要做什麼的問題，因為顯然，今天開發市場發生的情況是建築成本沒有下降，租金卻下降了。顯然，進入市場的供應對所有市場的租金都產生了抑製作用，對吧？

And so we as part of our planning process for 2025 and 2026 capital deployment, we review all of our properties and decide what we're going to start, what we're not going to start. And we've operated over the years with the -- and maybe this is the old CPA and me and Keith, and that is that we employ conservative financial policies.

因此，作為 2025 年和 2026 年資本部署規劃流程的一部分，我們審查了所有資產並決定我們要啟動什麼、不啟動什麼。多年來，我們一直與——也許這就是老註冊會計師、我和基斯一起運作，那就是我們採用保守的財務政策。

And when we reviewed those projects, the four projects that we wrote down and moved on, it was about making sure that we focused on proper capital allocation These properties today do not meet our investment criteria.

當我們審查這些項目時，我們寫下並繼續進行的四個項目，是為了確保我們專注於適當的資本配置。

And then more than that, the -- when you think about four properties specifically, there are three categories. One is California, and we have been reducing our exposure in California, and there's lots of California issues that we all talked about.

更重要的是，當您具體考慮四個屬性時，會發現分為三類。一是加州，我們一直在減少在加州的曝光度，我們都談了很多加州問題。

The second issue would be Houston. And Houston, we talked for a long time about wanting to lower our exposure in Houston and also wanting to have less urban and more suburban exposure in Houston. And the two projects in Houston are both urban projects, and we would much rather deploy capital in the suburbs rather than the urban core.

第二個問題是休士頓。至於休士頓，我們討論了很長時間，希望減少在休士頓的曝光度，並希望減少在休士頓的城市曝光度，增加在休士頓郊區的曝光度。而休士頓的兩個項目都是城市項目，我們更願意把資金配置在郊區，而不是城市核心。

And then the Atlanta project, we have two projects that we did. We bought this land in the financial crisis. And the interesting thing is the land that we're holding on our books today, when you look at the total purchase price for the land in the Atlanta is substantially less than what we have this on our balance sheet for, which is pretty amazing.

然後是亞特蘭大項目，我們做了兩個項目。我們在金融危機期間買了這塊土地。有趣的是，我們今天帳上持有的土地，當你看到亞特蘭大土地的總購買價格遠低於我們資產負債表上的土地時，這是非常驚人的。

In Atlanta, we just have a concentration issue in Buckhead, and we have 700-plus units that are really high-end units with two high rises or three high rises in a mid-rise and a stick construction build. So we just don't want more exposure in Buckhead like that.

在亞特蘭大，我們只是在巴克海特遇到了一個集中問題，我們有 700 多個單元，這些單元都是真正的高端單元，其中有兩棟高層建築或三棟高層建築中的中層建築和棒狀建築。所以我們只是不想在巴克海特有更多這樣的曝光。

And the highest and best use could be a condo or hotel or something which would actually benefit the neighborhood, including our properties as well. So it's really about capital allocation and we're disciplined in our capital allocation.

最高和最好的用途可能是公寓或酒店或真正有利於社區的東西，包括我們的房產。所以這其實與資本配置有關，我們在資本配置方面受到嚴格約束。

We think 2025 and '26 is going to be a really interesting year, a couple of years. You have $650 billion worth of multi-family debt coming due. You have merchant builders who have prefs that are eating into their profits.

我們認為 2025 年和 26 年將會是非常有趣的一年，幾年。您有價值 6500 億美元的多家庭債務即將到期。商業建設者的偏好正在蠶食他們的利潤。

Banks who want their loans paid down. And so there will be, I think, a very robust transaction market between -- over the next couple of years. And we're going to take advantage of that to increase our market balance, try to move the portfolio from a more be less urban and more suburban.

希望償還貸款的銀行。因此，我認為，未來幾年，雙方之間將會出現一個非常強勁的交易市場。我們將利用這一點來增加我們的市場平衡，嘗試將投資組合從更多的城市轉移到更多的郊區。

And we just think that capital allocation makes sense rather than starting developments today. You could raise rents maybe when you look at long-term growth, when we do underwriting, it's about -- we look at a seven-year untrended IRR.

我們只是認為資本配置有意義，而不是今天就開始開發。當你考慮長期成長時，你可能可以提高租金，當我們進行承保時，我們會考慮七年無趨勢的內部報酬率。

And most of the time we use anywhere from 3%, 3.5% compounded growth rates in our rents to make those numbers. We don't want to have to take that number up much more than the long-term average rent growth. To get these four development to work in today's market, you probably have to have 100 basis points growth of growth, wide of that.

大多數時候，我們使用 3% 到 3.5% 的租金複合成長率來計算這些數字。我們不想讓這個數字遠遠超過長期平均租金成長。為了讓這四​​種發展在今天的市場上發揮作用，你可能必須有 100 個基點的成長，幅度更大。

And I guess if you look at the wide of average, so call it 4.5%, maybe plus or minus. When you look out at the projections out there, I mean, Wit associates has markets like most of our markets growing at 4% to 6% in '26 and '27.

我想如果你看一下平均值，那麼稱為 4.5%，可能是正值，也可能是負值。當你看看外面的預測時，我的意思是，Wit Associates 的市場與我們大多數市場一樣，在 26 年和 27 年以 4% 到 6% 的速度成長。

So theoretically, if you had to build, you could do a pro forma that showed outsized rent growth in the second, third, fourth, fifth years that could get those IRRs to work. The challenge that we have is we just don't want to push the edge of the envelope that hard today.

因此，從理論上講，如果你必須建造，你可以做一個預估，顯示第二年、第三年、第四年、第五年的租金大幅增長，這可以讓這些內部收益率發揮作用。我們面臨的挑戰是我們今天不想那麼努力地挑戰極限。

We don't have to build and we would rather deploy the capital in markets we want to grow in, and buy existing properties at below replacement cost that don't have the lease-up risk. That doesn't mean we're not going to be in the development business. Alex mentioned, we're going to start two properties in 2025, and we still have additional development pipeline coming.

我們不必建造，我們寧願將資本部署在我們想要成長的市場上，並以低於重置成本的價格購買現有的房產，而且不存在租賃風險。這並不意味著我們不會從事開發業務。Alex 提到，我們將在 2025 年啟動兩處房產，我們還有更多的開發案即將推出。

And I'll just put this big caveat on this. If you look at the last write-down that we did, we did a write-down of multiple properties right after the financial crisis because nothing underwrote right after the financial crisis, right? And so interestingly enough, we never sold one of those land parcels, and we developed all of them.

我對此提出一個重要的警告。如果你看一下我們上次所做的減記，我們會在金融危機之後立即對多個財產進行減記，因為金融危機之後沒有任何承保，對嗎？有趣的是，我們從未出售過其中任何一塊地塊，而是我們開發了所有這些地塊。

And today, if you take the written down value for land at the time plus the land -- the booked value we had on the books, those properties are all probably worth 50% to 70% more today than the cost plus the write-offs that we did before. So at the end of the day, it's really just about capital allocation, and we want to allocate capital to some of our smaller markets and build up that net operating income from there.

今天，如果你把當時土地的減記價值加上土地——我們帳上的帳面價值，這些房產今天的價值可能比成本加上沖銷高出 50% 到 70%我們之前做過的。因此，歸根結底，這實際上只是關於資本配置，我們希望將資本配置到一些較小的市場，並從那裡建立淨營業收入。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布，派珀·桑德勒。

Rick, maybe just keeping with that merchant developer theme, you guys for the past number of years and the industry overall has been waiting to capitalize on developers that have to sell, the financial clock is ticking, they need to pay back, et cetera. And yet all these developers seem to get lifelines, the banks don't pressure them, the rents come back or something happens.

里克，也許只是為了保持商業開發商的主題，你們在過去的幾年里以及整個行業一直在等待利用必須出售的開發商，金融時鐘在滴答作響，他們需要償還，等等。然而，所有這些開發商似乎都獲得了生命線，銀行不會向他們施加壓力，租金會回來或發生一些事情。

So do you have confidence -- or like what gives you confidence that in the next few years, you'll see more opportunity from these forced sales or your comments more just in general that, hey, it's one area that we think that's going to provide opportunity rather than we think there's a huge opportunity from these merchant guys?

那麼，您有信心嗎？是一個領域提供機會而不是我們認為這些商人提供了巨大的機會？

Yes. I don't know. I think it's the huge opportunity is just there's going to be more transaction volume. I don't think you're going to find distressed transactions. I mean you could find distressed transactions at they're properties that we don't want.

是的。我不知道。我認為這是一個巨大的機會，因為交易量將會增加。我認為你不會發現不良交易。我的意思是，您可能會在我們不想要的房產中發現不良交易。

I mean, a lot of the syndicators that bought really, really substandard properties or C&D properties are definitely having serious trouble. You can go buy those at a discount, but I wouldn't want to take you on a tour of those properties and you don't want to tour as well.

我的意思是，許多購買了非常非常不合格的房產或建建房產的銀團肯定遇到了嚴重的麻煩。你可以打折購買，但我不想帶你參觀這些房產，你也不想參觀。

And so the merchant builder model, when you think about it, it's merchant builder, right? You build, you lease up, you sell. You build, you lease up, you sell and it's a cycle. And that's their profit motivation is to build and lease up and sell.

因此，當你考慮一下商人建造者模型時，它就是商人建造者，對吧？你建造，你租賃，你出售。你建造、租賃、出售，這是一個循環。他們的獲利動機是建造、租賃和出售。

And so in order to reload their pipeline in the future, and we know that with development starts going below 200,000 that -- and I think the reason multifamily is so desirable day on the private side of the ledger is because people can look at -- maybe end of '25 and into '26 and '27 and see above-average rent growth.

因此，為了在未來重新加載他們的管道，我們知道隨著開發量開始低於 200,000，我認為多戶家庭在賬本的私人方面如此令人嚮往的原因是因為人們可以看到 -也許到25 年底、 26 和27 年，租金成長將高於平均值。

And so they're willing to buy today. So the merchant builders don't have a gun at their head to sell. But when you have an 8% pref eating into your profit, and every month you stay and you haven't sold and paid those investors back plus their pref, the developer profit goes down.

所以他們今天願意購買。因此，商業建築商的頭上沒有槍可賣。但是，當你的利潤被 8% 的偏好侵蝕時，而你每個月都留下來，而你沒有出售並償還那些投資者加上他們的偏好，開發商的利潤就會下降。

So the developers are incented to maximize their profits and they can't do that if they don't sell. Banks on the other hand, if you look at 2023 and 2024, there was a lot of multi-family debt that came due and banks kicked can down the road.

因此，開發商有動力實現利潤最大化，如果不出售，他們就無法做到這一點。另一方面，如果你看看 2023 年和 2024 年，你會發現有大量多戶家庭債務到期，銀行將其擱置。

Banks let people -- if you had a maturing loan, they renewed the loan and moved it into the future under the theory that the Feds are going to cut rates and rates will come down, and therefore, you won't have to put as much equity in the project. So the $650 billion worth of debt that's coming due. A lot of that is from '23 and '24 where lenders move the maturities into '25 and '26.

銀行讓人們——如果你有一筆到期的貸款，他們會續簽貸款，並將其轉移到未來，其理論是美聯儲將降息，利率將會下降，因此，你不必把該項目的大量股權。價值 6500 億美元的債務即將到期。其中許多來自 23 和 24 年，貸方將到期日移至 25 和 26 年。

And so the market is just a natural market that needs to move. Now on the acquisition side, people have been -- got tons of dry powder. People have been holding their powder waiting for the signs, right? That 50-year supply is going to start going down and there will be an inflection point where rents will have a positive second derivative and start rising again.

因此，市場只是一個需要變動的自然市場。現在在收購方面，人們已經獲得了大量的乾粉。人們一直拿著粉末等待訊號，對嗎？50 年的供應量將開始下降，並且會出現一個拐點，租金將具有正的二階導數並再次開始上升。

And that -- I guess, in the first -- if you look at sales in multi-family assets in our markets, they're pretty much the same, at the same level they were in 2022. They're still below 2021, but the market is starting to thaw and people are starting to come to the market.

我想，首先，如果你看看我們市場上多戶型資產的銷售情況，你會發現它們幾乎沒有變化，與 2022 年的水準相同。仍低於 2021 年，但市場開始解凍，人們開始湧入市場。

So I think there's a reason you're going to have -- you won't have a real distressed scenario is there's just a massive wall of capital that needs to get deployed, and it's going to deploy into multifamily.

所以我認為這是有原因的——你不會遇到真正的困境，因為只有一堵巨大的資本牆需要部署，而且它將部署到多戶住宅中。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

I haven't really come up for a while about Houston. So just revisiting the comment about reducing exposure to this market. I think it's around 13% of NOI today. I guess how much of a decrease makes sense to you today when you revisit strategically taking a look at the portfolio?

我已經有一段時間沒有真正談論休斯頓了。因此，只需重新審視有關減少對該市場的敞口的評論即可。我認為這大約是今天 NOI 的 13%。我想當您今天重新策略性地審視投資組合時，減少多少對您來說是有意義的？

And could dispositions from this market be a source of funds to redeploy into some of the investment opportunities you just spoke about to the earlier questions?

這個市場的配置是否可以成為資金來源，重新部署到您剛才提到的一些投資機會？

Absolutely. We talked about wanting to lower our exposure in D.C. and Houston. And Houston right now and D.C. are actually two of the best markets and -- which is good for us.

絕對地。我們討論過想要降低在華盛頓和休士頓的曝光度。現在的休士頓和華盛頓特區實際上是兩個最好的市場——這對我們有好處。

On the other hand, we've been painted with Houston. When oil prices fall, people think they can -- or investors either buy or sell Camden based on Texas and oil prices, and that's been a challenge over the years.

另一方面，我們已經被描繪成休斯頓了。當油價下跌時，人們認為他們可以——或者投資者根據德克薩斯州和油價購買或出售卡姆登，多年來這一直是一個挑戰。

And so clearly, we can grow in other markets, and we have a very low levered balance sheet. So we don't necessarily have to sell or lot to grow or to lower the exposure. But we've continued to look to trim our portfolio in Houston over a period of time, and we'll continue to do that.

很明顯，我們可以在其他市場實現成長，而且我們的資產負債表槓桿率非常低。因此，我們不一定要出售或出售土地才能成長或降低風險敞口。但在一段時間內，我們一直在尋求削減休士頓的投資組合，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

We'll sell assets that are growing slower than the rest of the portfolio. And I think when you think about market balance, anywhere from 6% to 8%, 9% of assets in a certain market is probably the right place to be.

我們將出售成長速度慢於投資組合其他部分的資產。我認為，當你考慮市場平衡時，某個市場中 6% 到 8%、9% 的資產可能是合適的位置。

One of the things we also do is wait the -- we're weighting of where we want our markets, our balance to be based on population and inventory in that market because you don't want to be too overexposed to that market. Houston be given that it's an 800,000 unit market and the fourth largest city in the country. You can have a little bit overexposure relative to, say, maybe a Tampa, which is much smaller.

我們還要做的一件事就是等待 - 我們正在權衡我們想要的市場，我們的平衡基於該市場的人口和庫存，因為你不想過度暴露於該市場。休士頓擁有 80 萬個單位的市場，並且是美國第四大城市。相對於小得多的坦帕，你可能會有點過度曝光。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

You maintained leasing spreads higher through September than your Sunbelt peers, but then it seems like there was a significant falloff for the October, both effective leases and the signed leases. Was there a strategy change there moving towards occupancy? Was that more of an impact from supply? Or what would you attribute that to?

整個 9 月份，你們的租賃利差一直高於 Sunbelt 同行，但 10 月份的有效租賃和已簽署租賃似乎都出現了大幅下滑。是否有針對入住率的策略變化？這更多是來自供應的影響嗎？還是你認為這歸因於什麼？

Yes. What you saw in the third quarter was absolutely a drive more towards occupancy, and you're seeing that impact roll over into the fourth quarter. So that's exactly what it is.

是的。您在第三季度看到的絕對是入住率的成長，並且您會看到這種影響延續到第四季度。事實就是如此。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

I guess I wanted to go back on the development. A couple of things. I noticed that the projects that are currently in lease-up didn't seem to have a huge movement in percent lease from the mid-July to mid-October. So I was just wondering if you could comment on that.

我想我想回去開發。有幾件事。我注意到，目前處於租賃狀態的專案從七月中旬到十月中旬的租賃百分比似乎沒有巨大變化。所以我只是想知道你是否可以對此發表評論。

And then for the projects that it looks like you're going to start in the near future, the cost went up quite a bit. I realize the Nashville project got more units, but I think the cost went up considerably versus the number of units. So can you maybe just talk about the cost creep and whether those yields really still hit your return thresholds?

然後對於看起來你將在不久的將來開始的項目，成本上升了很多。我意識到納許維爾項目有更多的單位，但我認為成本相對於單位數量大幅上升。那麼，您能否只談談成本上升以及這些收益率是否真的仍達到您的回報門檻？

Yes, absolutely. So we'll talk about leasing first. So we've got the three developments that we have in lease-up. If you look at the two that are single-family rental communities, we've said all along those generally lease up slower than a typical multifamily and somewhere in the range of call it, 10 to 15 units a month.

是的，絕對是。所以我們先談談租賃。因此，我們已經獲得了租賃的三個開發項目。如果你看看這兩個單戶出租社區，我們就說過，這些社區的出租速度通常比典型的多戶住宅慢，大約是每月 10 到 15 個單位。

Whereas with a typical multi, we'd see somewhere between 20 to 30 units a month. If you look at our Durham development, that one is actually leasing up 25 units a month. So that one is doing in line with what we would expect, if not even a little bit better. So we feel good with all of the leasing trends.

而對於典型的多用途車，我們每個月會看到 20 到 30 輛之間。如果你看看我們達勒姆的開發項目，你會發現該項目實際上每月出租 25 個單位。因此，它的表現符合我們的預期，甚至更好一點點。因此，我們對所有租賃趨勢都感到滿意。

And as I said, they're really pretty much in line with what we had expected. When you think about the overall construction cost of our pipeline, as Rick said in the very beginning, we did a full analysis of all of our developments as we do on a periodic basis. We got the most up-to-date pricing that we've seen, and that is what's represented on the development pipeline page.

正如我所說，它們確實與我們的預期非常一致。當你考慮我們管道的總體建設成本時，正如里克一開始所說的那樣，我們定期對所有開發項目進行了全面分析。我們獲得了所見過的最新定價，這就是開發管道頁面上所顯示的價格。

I will tell you that at this point in time, we think that all of these yields work, and that's why we said that we anticipate starting one of the Nashville deals and the Denver deal in the first part of '25 and why we anticipate starting, the remaining Nashville deal in either late '25 or early '26. So we think all of those returns still work for us.

我會告訴你，在這個時間點，我們認為所有這些收益都有效，這就是為什麼我們說我們預計在 25 年上半年開始納什維爾交易和丹佛交易之一，以及為什麼我們預計開始，剩餘的納什維爾交易要麼在25 年末，要麼在26 年初。因此，我們認為所有這些回報仍然對我們有用。

Rich Anderson, Wedbush.

里奇安德森，韋德布希。

So a question on cap rates. And Rick, you mentioned the opportunity set with debt coming due and merchant developers being stretched in a few years. If there's a lack of transaction activity, but when we do see something it's a 5% or lower perhaps, is that just a function of the moment something does hit, there's a wave of capital.

關於上限利率的問題。瑞克，你提到了債務到期和商業開發商在幾年內捉襟見肘的機會。如果缺乏交易活動，但當我們確實看到某件事時，它可能是 5% 或更低，這只是某件事發生時的函數，就會出現資本浪潮。

And I use the example of senior housing, which the opportunity set in front of it right now is very positive, yet cap rates are 7.5%, 8%. The opportunity set in front of multifamily and at least in your markets may get positive soon, but for the time being, is a little bit of a question and yet cap rates are still in the 5s.

我以老年住房為例，目前擺在它面前的機會非常積極，但資本化率為 7.5%、8%。多戶家庭（至少在您的市場）面前的機會可能很快就會變得積極，但目前還存在一些問題，但資本化率仍處於 5 左右。

Is it just there's just so many people that want so few deals, if that's question number one. And then corollary to that is, do cap rates need to adjust for you to be active on that opportunity that I described earlier? Or are you willing to take a little bit of a hit upfront to get a deal that will make sense for you two or three years later?

如果這是第一個問題，是否只是有那麼多人想要這麼少的交易？隨之而來的推論是，您是否需要調整資本化率才能積極抓住我先前描述的機會？或者您願意預先承受一點打擊，以獲得兩三年後對您有意義的交易嗎？

Sure. So I think you -- I think that multifamily has come to the forefront again of investment choice for institutional investors. At the beginning of the year, there are a lot of, surveys of what properties you want to invest in and multifamily was down on the list at the beginning of the year.

當然。所以我認為，我認為多戶住宅已經再次成為機構投資者投資選擇的前沿。今年年初，有很多關於您想投資哪些房產的調查，而多戶住宅在年初的名單上排名下降。

And people wanted retail and they wanted industrial more multifamily now if you take third quarter numbers, whether it be from Axiometrics or a lot of different groups that look at investor preference. Multifamily is now number one in terms of commercial real estate that people want to buy.

如果你看第三季的數據，人們想要零售業，他們現在想要更多工業多戶住宅，無論是來自 Axiometrics 還是許多關注投資者偏好的不同團體。就人們想要購買的商業房地產而言，多戶住宅現在排名第一。

It's multifamily, industrial, retail and then office is a way distant fourth. And what's happened is that we've gotten closer to what people think is going to be an inflection point in the supply and demand equation. And when you think about -- we're at a 50-year high in terms of deliveries.

它是多戶住宅、工業、零售和辦公室，遠遠落後於第四。所發生的情況是，我們已經越來越接近人們認為的供需方程式的拐點。當你想一想時，我們的交付量正處於 50 年來的最高水準。

And yet when you look at our markets, only two of our markets on a year-to-date basis have negative rent growth, and that's Austin and Nashville. And the reason Austin and Nashville are definitely the two most overbuilt cities in America and double the supply of all the rest of the markets.

然而，當你觀察我們的市場時，我們的市場中只有兩個市場今年以來租金出現負成長，那就是奧斯汀和納許維爾。這就是奧斯汀和納許維爾絕對是美國建造最過度的兩個城市的原因，而且供應量是所有其他市場的兩倍。

And all the rest of our markets are either flat or up, even in spite of massive supply relative to historical norms, right? And so I think what's happened is investors are now -- private investors are pivoting towards multifamily. And you're exactly right, the developers out there who still have -- they don't have a gun at their head to sell.

儘管相對於歷史標準而言供應量很大，但我們所有其他市場要么持平要么上漲，對嗎？所以我認為現在發生的事情是投資者——私人投資者正在轉向多戶住宅。你是完全正確的，開發商仍然擁有——他們的頭上沒有槍可以出售。

And so they believe also that as the supply picture continues to improve and continue -- when you get that first positive second derivative on revenues, that there's going to be a flood of buyers in the market. And the thing that's really interesting, too, is over the last 60 days, cap rates were in the 5s, then it went into the 4s.

因此，他們也相信，隨著供應情況不斷改善並持續下去——當你獲得收入的第一個正二階導數時，市場上將會出現大量買家。真正有趣的事情是，在過去 60 天裡，資本化率一直在 5 左右，然後又變成了 4 左右。

The last few deals that we've looked at, you've had multiple buyers and the cap rates are mid-4s today, not 5% or 5.5%. And the reason for that is there's more buyers than sellers.

我們看過的最後幾筆交易中，有多個買家，今天的上限利率為 4 美元左右，而不是 5% 或 5.5%。原因是買家多於賣家。

And ultimately, the only way that you make a 7% unlevered IRR, which is what people are trying to get, I think, generally, is you have to have outsized growth two, three years, four years out, which most people are pretty comfortable in underwriting. Now the last 30 days has been a different element, right? You've had the tenure go up 50 basis points or more in the last 30 days.

最終，你獲得7% 的無槓桿IRR 的唯一方法，這就是人們想要獲得的，我認為，一般來說，你必須在兩年、三年、四年後實現大幅增長，而大多數人對此都相當滿意。現在過去 30 天是一個不同的元素，對吧？在過去 30 天內，您的任期已上升 50 個基點或更多。

And that's change -- that changes the calculus a little bit. And so the question will be in order to get your -- because you're back to negative leverage when you start with 10-year the way it is today. So the question will be, will the 10-year or will the treasury stabilize and then how will people underwrite and will that drive cap rates back to 5%.

這就是變化——稍微改變了計算方式。所以問題是為了得到你的——因為當你像今天一樣開始使用 10 年期債券時，你會回到負槓桿。因此，問題是，10 年期國債或國債是否會穩定下來，然後人們將如何承保，這是否會將資本化率推回 5%。

But from our perspective is, as long as we can buy below replacement cost in that 4.5% to 5% zone, and we believe that we can improve operations, we believe that we can catch that above average long-term rental rate growth in '26, '27, '28, we'll transact in that environment. And we'll also sell properties to fund it and continue to try to rebalance our portfolio where we want it.

但從我們的角度來看，只要我們能夠在 4.5% 至 5% 的區域內以低於重置成本的價格購買，並且我們相信我們能夠改善運營，我們相信我們能夠在 ' 26、27、28，我們將在該環境中進行交易。我們還將出售房產為其提供資金，並繼續嘗試在我們想要的地方重新平衡我們的投資組合。

And we'll spend a lot of time on that in the first quarter call because we're going to lay out where we want our markets to be, but we haven't done that yet exactly. So we'll get that to you all in the first quarter.

我們將在第一季的電話會議上花費大量時間，因為我們將製定我們想要的市場發展方向，但我們還沒有完全做到這一點。因此，我們將在第一季向大家傳達這一點。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

亨德爾‧聖朱斯特，瑞穗。

Maybe come back to him.

也許會回到他身邊。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

So maybe one for Alex. As you think about -- I think you and several of your peers, the course of this year has been reducing your top line outlook, but getting nice cost savings to keep your NOI outlook. So I guess two questions. Number one, Can you talk about where you probably were most conservative to start the year and where you got the benefit throughout the year?

所以也許是給亞歷克斯的。正如您所想，我想您和您的幾位同行，今年的進程一直在降低您的頂線前景，但通過節省大量成本來保持您的 NOI 前景。所以我猜有兩個問題。第一，你能談談今年開始時你可能最保守的地方以及全年你在哪裡獲得的好處嗎？

And then secondly, as we think about 2025, I mean, do you think there's still enough juice in expense savings to have a similar outcome given there is a lot so much uncertainty around top line revenue where you could start the year on a conservative basis and get some upside?

其次，當我們考慮2025 年時，我的意思是，考慮到頂線收入存在很大的不確定性，你認為在支出節省方面仍有足夠的動力來實現類似的結果嗎？的一年並獲得一些好處？

Yes. So clearly, where we were the most conservative, although I didn't think we were at the time, was insurance and taxes. Those have been the two really bright spots for us. We think that taxes for us for the full year for '24 are going to be basically flat. And keep in mind that taxes make up about 36% of our total expenses.

是的。很明顯，我們最保守的地方是保險和稅收，儘管我當時並不認為我們是這樣。這對我們來說是兩個真正的亮點。我們認為 24 年全年的稅收將基本持平。請記住，稅收約占我們總支出的 36%。

And when we started the year, I thought they were going to be up 3%. So obviously, that was an incredibly pleasant surprise. And then on the insurance side, Keep in mind, insurance last year was up something like 40%. And this year, it's going to be down something like 10%. So you really have a couple of factors that drive that.

當我們年初時，我認為它們會上漲 3%。顯然，這是一個令人難以置信的驚喜。然後在保險方面，請記住，去年保險上漲了 40% 左右。今年，這一數字將下降 10% 左右。所以確實有幾個因素推動了這一點。

Number one, we had a flat renewal, which was fantastic. But then number two is we were very, very proactive in addressing. So the root causes of some of our insurance claims and making sure that we were putting the appropriate R&M and CapEx in to make sure that we can minimize those risks on a go-forward basis. And we're absolutely getting the the positive results from those actions in our insurance numbers today.

第一，我們續租了公寓，這太棒了。但第二點是我們非常非常積極地解決這個問題。因此，我們的一些保險索賠的根本原因是，確保我們投入適當的 R&M 和資本支出，以確保我們能夠在未來的基礎上最大限度地減少這些風險。我們今天的保險數據中絕對得到了這些行動的正面成果。

If you're looking at 2025, it's a little early. We're still in our budgeting process. What I would tell you is getting another year of property taxes flat is probably unlikely. Over a long period time, property taxes are generally up about 3%.

如果你著眼於 2025 年，那就有點早了。我們仍在製定預算過程中。我要告訴你的是，再一年的財產稅保持不變可能不太可能。長期以來，房產稅普遍上漲3%左右。

Now the good news is, is that if you go back and you look at real values today and you compare them to two to three years ago, there's no doubt that real values are down. And so hopefully, we still have a little more juice that we can squeeze out of that, and we'll fight as best we can against the taxing authorities.

現在的好消息是，如果你回顧一下今天的實際價值，並將其與兩三年前進行比較，毫無疑問，實際價值會下降。因此，希望我們還能從中榨取更多的汁液，我們將盡最大努力與稅務當局作鬥爭。

And then when it comes to insurance, our policy renews beginning of May. And so we'll have to see what the rest of this year and the early part of next year does in terms of global insurance claims because this is a global market.

然後說到保險，我們的保單在五月初更新。因此，我們必須看看今年剩餘時間和明年初全球保險索賠的情況，因為這是一個全球市場。

And if we have light claims, then we may have another productive year on the insurance side. When I think about the rest of our expenses, the rest of our expenses, it's a 3% business. And I think that's what you'd expect to see.

如果我們的索賠金額較少，那麼我們可能會在保險方面又迎來一個富有成效的一年。當我想到我們其餘的開支時，我們的其餘開支，這是 3% 的業務。我想這就是你所期望看到的。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho. John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

亨德爾‧聖朱斯特，瑞穗。約翰金 (John Kim)，BMO 資本市場。

I'm afraid to talk.

我害怕說話。

Maybe it's the Halloween hang over.

也許這是萬聖節的宿醉。

Very scary. I wanted to follow up on Austin's question on Houston. If you look on your presentation, page 6, the migration trend for Houston seems like it's going to accelerate quite a bit over the next couple of years. I'm wondering what's driving that?

非常可怕。我想跟進奧斯汀關於休斯頓的問題。如果您查看第 6 頁的演示文稿，休士頓的移民趨勢似乎將在未來幾年內大幅加速。我想知道是什麼推動了這一點？

And also, I mean, we do have a chance that we'll have another Trump presidency, who's been very supportive of the oil and gas industry.

而且，我的意思是，我們確實有機會再次擔任川普總統，他一直非常支持石油和天然氣產業。

Can you remind us if that's a positive for the Houston economy? And if either of those items come into fruition, acceleration in migration or if Trump wins the presidency, will that impact your decision to reduce your exposure to the market?

您能否提醒我們這對休士頓經濟是否有利？如果這些項目中的任何一個實現，移民加速或川普贏得總統職位，這會影響您減少市場曝險的決定嗎？

Yes. So Houston is continues to be very much impacted by what goes on in the oil and gas industry. And higher oil prices historically have been great for Houston, lower oil prices have not been great. So anything that is good for the oil and gas business ends up being good for Houston and ends up being good for Houston real estate.

是的。因此，休士頓繼續受到石油和天然氣行業的影響。從歷史上看，油價上漲對休士頓來說是件好事，但油價下跌則不是好事。因此，任何對石油和天然氣業務有利的事情最終都會有利於休士頓，最終也會有利於休士頓的房地產。

So without prognosticating on outcomes of elections, our strategy to lower our exposure in Houston predated Trump's first election. So it's been out there for a long time. It's -- we've made some progress.

因此，在不預測選舉結果的情況下，我們降低在休士頓風險敞口的策略早在川普第一次選舉之前就已製定。所以它已經存在很久了。我們已經取得了一些進展。

Obviously, we had a fairly sizable acquisition that increased our exposure to Houston, but we're still committed to getting it more in line with our other markets. And for a long time, when we had -- we were in 9 to 10 markets. We talked about having a market balance that would be no double digits in any single market.

顯然，我們進行了相當規模的收購，增加了我們在休士頓的業務，但我們仍然致力於使其與我們的其他市場更加一致。很長一段時間，當我們擁有 9 到 10 個市場時。我們談到了在任何單一市場中都不會出現兩位數的市場平衡。

And I think you'll see that that's the direction that we're headed in markets that we have that are double-digit concentration. It's Houston and Washington, D.C. Metro, and we'll be -- those obviously will be part of the rebalancing effort that we do.

我想你會發現，這就是我們在兩位數集中度市場中前進的方向。這是休士頓和華盛頓特區的地鐵，我們將——這些顯然將是我們所做的再平衡努力的一部分。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

麥可‧戈德史密斯，瑞銀集團。

This is Ami on for Michael. I was just curious, was there anything that changed on the demand side that led to blended spread in the third quarter and fourth quarter coming in really well below your prior expectations in the mid-1% range? And how should we be thinking about the supply-demand balance as we head into '25?

這是阿米為麥可代言的。我只是很好奇，需求方面是否發生了任何變化，導致第三季和第四季的混合利差遠低於您之前 1% 左右的預期？當我們進入 25 世紀時，我們應該如何考慮供需平衡？

Yes. I don't know if there's anything significantly different. Certainly, we made a decision, and we talked about it last quarter in the third quarter, we made a decision to push occupancy at the expense of rates. As we said several times, we don't really tell our teams, this is the rates you must get or this is the occupancy you must get. We're really trying to maximize revenue.

是的。我不知道是否有什麼明顯的差異。當然，我們做出了一個決定，我們在第三季的上個季度談到了這一點，我們決定以犧牲房價為代價來提高入住率。正如我們多次說過的，我們並沒有真正告訴我們的團隊，這是您必須獲得的費率或這是您必須獲得的入住率。我們確實在努力實現收入最大化。

And so we feel really good about what we did in terms of maximizing revenue in the third quarter, which is why our third quarter revenue results were in line with expectations. When you look at what we're going to see in the fourth quarter, clearly, when you do push occupancy, rates are going to come down a little bit.

因此，我們對第三季營收最大化所做的工作感到非常滿意，這就是為什麼我們第三季的營收結果符合預期。當你看到我們在第四季度會看到的情況時，很明顯，當你確實提高入住率時，房價會略有下降。

And that's what you're seeing rolling through the fourth quarter numbers. But keep in mind, we started the year thinking that at the midpoint that revenue was going to be up 1.5%, and we're within 20 basis points of our initial guidance, despite record levels of supply. So we feel very good about the way that we've worked through this year.

這就是您在第四季度的數據中看到的情況。但請記住，我們年初時認為營收將成長 1.5%，儘管供應水準創歷史新高，但我們與最初指導的差距在 20 個基點以內。因此，我們對今年的工作方式感到非常滿意。

And Ami, to your question on 2025, if you look at Witten's numbers for employment growth across Camden's markets in 2024, he's got us at about 460,000. I'm not sure what he modeled for the most recent report, but it probably wasn't 10,000.

Ami，對於你關於 2025 年的問題，如果你看看 Witten 的 2024 年卡姆登市場就業成長數據，他得出的數據約為 46 萬人。我不確定他為最新報告建立的模型是什麼，但可能不是 10,000。

But in any case, he's got that number at about 440,000 in job growth across Camden's markets in 2025. On the supply side, '25 is going to look a lot like '24 across most of markets in terms of new deliveries. So supply-demand dynamics in 2025 are going to look fairly similar to what they've been in 2024.

但無論如何，他預測到 2025 年卡姆登市場的就業機會將增加約 44 萬個。在供應方面，就新交付量而言，大多數市場的「25 年」將與「24 年」非常相似。因此，2025 年的供需動態將與 2024 年非常相似。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

亨德爾‧聖朱斯特，瑞穗。

So I wanted to ask, I know you're not giving guide at this point, but I was hoping you could perhaps give some color on some of the building blocks like the estimated earn-in for next year like some of your peers have provided. And maybe some thoughts on where you think you can get bad debt to overall by the end of next year and maybe some thoughts on Atlanta and LA specifically.

所以我想問，我知道你現在沒有提供指導，但我希望你能給一些構建模組一些顏色，比如明年的估計收入，就像你的一些同行提供的那樣。也許還有一些關於你認為到明年年底你可以在哪裡獲得壞帳的想法，也許還有一些關於亞特蘭大和洛杉磯的具體想法。

Yes, absolutely. So if our plan works out for the next two months of the year, our earn-in for 2025 should be, call it, flat to slightly positive. If you think about bad debt, I think it's very reasonable to anticipate that bad debt is going to be back down to about 50 basis points by the end of 2025.

是的，絕對是。因此，如果我們的計劃在今年接下來的兩個月中得以實現，那麼我們 2025 年的獲利應該是持平到略為正值。如果你考慮壞賬，我認為預計到 2025 年底壞帳將回落至 50 個基點左右是非常合理的。

If you think about our portfolio in the whole, once you strip out Atlanta and you strip out California, that's pretty much where we are. We're pretty much back to the 50 basis points.

如果你從整體上考慮我們的投資組合，一旦剔除亞特蘭大和加州，我們就差不多處於這個位置了。我們幾乎回到了 50 個基點。

And the good news is that we can work through and we are working through Atlanta and LA County, in particular, because that's where most of the issues in California are. We've completely shut down the front door.

好消息是我們可以解決這個問題，特別是我們正在亞特蘭大和洛杉磯縣開展工作，因為加州的大多數問題都集中在這些地方。我們已經完全關閉了前門。

So we know that we're not getting any bad actors in currently. And so we've got some folks that came in from fraud in the past. We're working them through the system, and we feel pretty good that we're going to get this problem solved by the end of 2025.

所以我們知道目前我們沒有遇到任何不良演員。所以我們有一些人過去是因為欺詐而進來的。我們正在透過系統解決這些問題，我們感覺很好，我們將在 2025 年底之前解決這個問題。

Keith, do you want to take Atlanta and LA?

基思，你想佔領亞特蘭大和洛杉磯嗎？

Yes. So LA is -- you got to put it into the three communities that we have there in LA County, and they all have their challenges that started -- some of them started back in COVID and some of them continue today. But the biggest challenge that we continue to have in LA is just the time component between when somebody first becomes delinquent and when you can get it processed for them to move on. And it's still way too long.

是的。所以，洛杉磯——你必須把它納入我們在洛杉磯縣的三個社區，他們都面臨著開始的挑戰——其中一些是在新冠疫情期間開始的，其中一些至今仍在繼續。但我們在洛杉磯繼續面臨的最大挑戰只是某人第一次違法和你可以處理該問題以讓他們繼續前進之間的時間組成部分。而且還是太長了。

And so we do -- and we have seen improvement, and we hope to continue to see improvement both in LA and Atlanta. In Atlanta, it's the same story. It's really a processing issue with regard to the -- just how long it takes to get someone from delinquency through to a new home address.

我們確實做到了——我們已經看到了進步，我們希望洛杉磯和亞特蘭大繼續看到進步。在亞特蘭大，情況也是一樣。這實際上是一個處理問題，即需要多長時間才能將某人從違法行為中轉移到新的家庭住址。

Again, both of them have made progress. There's room to go. I think Alex is right that in 2025, we'll work through that, those -- both LA and Atlanta will be able to get back to more of a normal cadence for processing evictions.

再次，兩人都取得了進步。還有空間可以去。我認為亞歷克斯是對的，到 2025 年，我們將解決這個問題，洛杉磯和亞特蘭大都將能夠恢復到更正常的驅逐處理節奏。

And so I'm certainly hopeful that we can make good progress. And as Alex mentioned, most of our other markets are back to regular order with regard to processing delinquencies.

因此，我當然希望我們能夠取得良好進展。正如亞歷克斯所提到的，我們的大多數其他市場在處理拖欠款項方面已恢復正常秩序。

I think the issue in LA from a revenue perspective is LA has a demand problem, not a supply problem. And when you look at -- just to put a couple of points in this, Houston -- since February 2020, Houston added 268,000 jobs and LA is down 16,000 jobs from that point in time.

我認為從收入角度來看，洛杉磯的問題是洛杉磯存在需求問題，而不是供應問題。當你看一下——僅舉幾點，休士頓——自 2020 年 2 月以來，休士頓增加了 268,000 個工作崗位，而洛杉磯從那時起減少了 16,000 個工作崗位。

Dallas added 467,000 jobs. San Francisco has lost nearly 50,000 jobs. And so even though you have low supply in those markets and their revenues are growing a bit better than the supply markets, they're basically just growing because they went down so much to start with, right?

達拉斯增加了 467,000 個就業機會。舊金山已經失去了近 5 萬個工作機會。因此，即使這些市場的供應量較低，而且他們的收入成長比供應市場要好一些，但它們基本上只是在成長，因為它們一開始就下降了很多，對吧？

So they had a bigger hole to climb out of. And the demand is the real issue there. And long term, I don't see that changing dramatically.

所以他們有一個更大的洞可以爬出來。需求才是真正的問題。從長遠來看，我認為這種情況不會發生巨大變化。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

朱利安布盧因，高盛。

Just wanted to ask, what do you expect for trajectory of new lease rates into November and December relative to the negative 4.8% you saw in October? It does seem like comps year-over-year seem to get a bit easier in November and December.

只是想問一下，相對於 10 月的負 4.8%，您對 11 月和 12 月的新租賃利率走勢有何預期？11 月和 12 月的比較似乎確實變得更容易一些。

And then on the renewal side, I guess, you said you sent out offers in the mid-3s for November and December. Where do you think that actually shakes out? Like could it be like 100 basis points lower? Or any guidepost you can give us on that side?

然後在續約方面，我想，您說過您在 3 月中旬發出了 11 月和 12 月的報價。您認為這實際上在哪裡發生了變化？會不會低100個基點？或者您可以給我們那一側的任何路標嗎？

Yes. So I think the fourth quarter is going to look probably pretty similar to what you see effectively for October, right? So if you look at October, the effective new lease rates is down 4.4% that feels about right. Effective renewal rates up 3.4%.

是的。因此，我認為第四季度的情況可能與您在 10 月看到的情況非常相似，對吧？因此，如果你看看 10 月份，有效的新租賃利率下降了 4.4%，感覺不錯。有效續約率上升 3.4%。

Once again, I think that's going to be right. The difference, and there's going to be a slight difference is that when you get to November and December, you start to have more renewals than new leases. And so the blend changes a little bit.

我再次認為這是正確的。不同之處在於，到了 11 月和 12 月，續約數量開始多於新租約。因此混合會發生一些變化。

And so if you look at what we had for October of effective blended lease rate of down 0.8%, I think it's going to get a little bit better than that for November and December just because, as I said, just the weighting changes with more renewals versus leases.

因此，如果你看看我們 10 月份的有效混合租賃利率下降了 0.8%，我認為它會比 11 月份和 12 月份好一點，因為正如我所說，權重隨著更多的變化而變化。與租約。

Michael Lewis, Truist Securities.

邁克爾劉易斯，Truist 證券公司。

Rick, you mentioned keeping some land parcels that you have written down in past downturns and those eventually recovered in value or the development viability came back. The parcels that you're writing down now, do you intend to sell those?

里克（Rick），您提到保留一些在過去的經濟低迷時期減記的地塊，這些地塊最終價值恢復或開發可行性恢復。您現在記下的這些地塊，您打算出售嗎？

And then also related to land, I think Alex mentioned that you have some additional parcels under contract. So maybe where are you looking to buy land at?

然後也與土地有關，我想亞歷克斯提到你在合約下還有一些額外的地塊。那麼也許您想在哪裡購買土地？

If we -- if the development numbers don't work, don't pencil before we sell land, we'll sell land. The -- it's not a great time to sell land today. And so when you think about the transaction environment, we don't have to sell land. So we don't need to sell land. And so we'll just hold on our books until we think that it's the right time to sell it.

如果我們——如果開發數字不起作用，在我們出售土地之前不要用鉛筆畫出來，我們就會出售土地。現在不是出售土地的好時機。因此，當你考慮交易環境時，我們不必出售土地。所以我們不需要賣地。因此，我們將保留我們的書籍，直到我們認為是出售它的合適時機。

And then we'll look at an analysis again and decide whether we should build it or sell it. And that's there is no pressure on us to sell. And when you think about the merchant builder market today, the starts are going to be down significantly.

然後我們將再次進行分析並決定是否應該建造它或出售它。這就是說我們沒有出售的壓力。當你想到今天的商業建築商市場時，開工率將會大幅下降。

And part of that is deals, a, don't pencil; and two, they're stuck in deals that they already have and they haven't sold them yet, so they don't have new capital to be able to put in new deals. So if you're selling land today, it's probably not a great land sale market.

其中一部分是交易，a，不要用鉛筆；第二，他們陷入了已有的交易中，但尚未出售，因此他們沒有新的資本來進行新的交易。因此，如果您今天要出售土地，那麼這可能不是一個很好的土地出售市場。

And that could create opportunities for us to buy shovel-ready deals. We've definitely bought a lot of shovel-ready deals over the years. The transactions we have under contract right now are in Tampa, and we have a large land parcel that's a suburban three-story, four-story stick construction project.

這可能為我們創造購買現成交易的機會。多年來，我們確實購買了許多現成的交易。我們現在簽訂的合約交易是在坦帕，我們有一塊大地塊，是一個郊區的三層、四層棒式建築項目。

And we will continue -- you're going to see us move more from urban mid-rise to more suburban simple construction. That's just a direction that we have been moving. And that's why you have the four projects that we have identified, those were all urban projects.

我們將繼續——你將看到我們更多地從城市中層建築轉向更郊區的簡單建築。這只是我們一直在努力的方向。這就是為什麼我們有四個項目，這些都是城市項目。

And if they were suburban walk-ups, we probably wouldn't have written them down. We probably started them by now.

如果它們是郊區的步行街，我們可能不會把它們寫下來。我們可能現在就開始了。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克萊默，摩根士丹利。

Just wondering, obviously, with the development shift. I was wondering where you would rank acquisitions versus development versus maybe other uses of capital, if you were to rank the different capital allocation possibilities here?

顯然，只是想知道隨著開發的轉變。我想知道如果您要在這裡對不同的資本配置可能性進行排名，您會將收購、開發以及其他資本用途排名在哪裡？

I noticed you guys haven't bought anything in some time. So maybe if you could also just categorize the state of the acquisitions market and maybe early expectations for deal flow in the coming quarter or two?

我發現你們已經有一段時間沒買東西了。那麼，也許您也可以對收購市場的狀況以及未來一兩個季度交易流的早期預期進行分類？

Well, we think there's going to be a big deal flow in 2025 from an acquisition perspective for all the reasons that I've already gone through. And it gets down to, when you think about capital allocation, it's all about driving cash flow growth.

好吧，我們認為從收購的角度來看，2025 年將會出現大量交易，原因我已經講過了。歸根結底，當你考慮資本配置時，一切都是為了推動現金流成長。

And when we look at our weighted average cost of capital, and we're going to invest in new transactions that will give us a reasonable spread over weighted average cost of capital. Development makes sense, and that's why we've started $300 million-plus this year. We'll start $375 million next year.

當我們考慮加權平均資本成本時，我們將投資於新交易，這將使我們在加權平均資本成本上獲得合理的利差。開發是有意義的，這就是我們今年啟動 3 億多美元的原因。明年我們將啟動 3.75 億美元。

But the balance between how much development, how much acquisitions you'll do, will really be just a function of what the market allows. And so far this year, we just didn't see a great amount of opportunity in the acquisition side, and that's what we didn't really do anything.

但開發多少、收購多少之間的平衡其實只是市場允許的函數。今年到目前為止，我們在收購方面還沒有看到大量的機會，這就是我們沒有真正做任何事情的地方。

But you can expect us to be more active in '25 and '26 for sure. And I guess one of the -- when you think about capital allocation, we -- if stock prices get to the point where they were when we bought $50 million of shares at $97, at today's stock price, it's pushing up on a 6% cap rate.

但你可以預期我們在 25 和 26 年肯定會更加活躍。我猜想，當你考慮資本配置時，如果股價達到我們以 97 美元購買 5000 萬美元股票時的水平，按照今天的股價計算，它會上漲 6%上限率。

And it's hard for me to find is going in 6% that's existing today or a development going in 6%. So if the public markets don't believe the private markets that cap rates are 4.5%, we can buy our stock at 6%, you can expect more of that.

我很難找到現有的 6% 的項目或 6% 的開發項目。因此，如果公開市場不相信私人市場的上限為 4.5%，我們可以以 6% 的價格購買我們的股票，你可以期待更多。

Wess Golladay, Baird.

韋斯·戈拉迪，貝爾德。

I just want to go back to that comment about the construction costs increasing. Was that a market-specific labor thing? Or is that pretty broad-based? And then can you comment on how land pricing is versus the peak?

我只想回到關於建築成本增加的評論。這是特定於市場的勞動力問題嗎？或者說這基礎相當廣泛？那麼您能評論一下土地定價與高峰期的情況如何嗎？

I'm sorry, the first question was --

抱歉，第一個問題是--

Go ahead, Alex.

繼續吧，亞歷克斯。

No, I was just trying to make sure I heard the first question.

不，我只是想確保我聽到了第一個問題。

Construction costs going up and, but they're really not going up, they're flat.

建築成本上升，但實際上並沒有上升，而是持平。

No, they're not going up.

不，他們不會上升。

Looking at the Camden Baker and the Camden Gulch, the cost -- not for the active construction but the shadow pipeline, the Baker and the Gulch went up. I didn't know if that was the market-specific labor that went up or just construction costs overall? And then the follow-up question was, how is land pricing versus the peak?

看看卡姆登貝克和卡姆登峽谷，成本——不是活躍建設的成本，而是影子管道、貝克和峽谷的成本上升了。我不知道這是市場特定勞動力的上漲還是整體建築成本的上漲？接下來的問題是，土地定價與高峰相比如何？

Okay. absolutely. So if you look at what's in our pipeline, we have gone through and substantially redesigned those sites, and we've come up with -- most of what you're seeing on cost changes is really, you call it, enhancements.

好的。絕對地。因此，如果你看看我們的管道中的內容，我們已經仔細檢查並大幅重新設計了這些網站，並且我們提出了 - 你所看到的大部分成本變化實際上是，你稱之為增強。

We're building a much better product than what we originally had laid out. And so that's what you're really seeing there. Land prices today, Rick, I don't know if you want to hit that one.

我們正在開發比我們最初設計的產品更好的產品。這就是你真正看到的。今天的土地價格，瑞克，我不知道你是否想達到這個目標。

Yes. Land prices today are lower than they were at the peak, probably 15%, 20%, maybe more. But landholders are just like merchant builder holders. If you don't have to sell, why would you sell into a weak market? And most people don't have to sell.

是的。今天的土地價格比高峰時期低，可能低 15%、20%，甚至更多。但土地所有者就像商業建築商的所有者一樣。如果你不必出售，為什麼要在市場疲軟時出售？而且大多數人不必出售。

So there hasn't been a lot of major land transactions get done. And it's just a sit and wait scenario. So it's hard to put a pin in, is it down 15%, 20% or what because there really hasn't been a lot of land transactions out there.

因此，尚未完成大量重大土地交易。這只是一個坐著等待的場景。所以很難確定是下降了 15%、20% 還是什麼，因為確實沒有大量土地交易。

Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

琳達·蔡，杰弗里斯。

Given your comments about the quality of your construction, building a better product, and luck helping you avoid the worst of some of the recent hurricane impacts. The average age of your portfolio is also lower. Is there any way to quantify the resiliency of your portfolio versus the surrounding multi-family buildings in the regions in which your portfolio to operates?

鑑於您對建築品質的評論，打造更好的產品，並幸運地幫助您避免了最近一些颶風影響中最嚴重的情況。您的投資組合的平均年齡也較低。有沒有什麼方法可以量化您的投資組合相對於您的投資組合運營所在地區的周圍多戶建築的彈性？

I think it's very hard to quantify other than to say that clearly, when we were -- once Milton went through and our teams were out on our sites assessing, what they would report back is that our neighbors certainly looked a lot different than we do.

我認為除了清楚地說之外，很難量化，當我們——一旦米爾頓經歷過並且我們的團隊在我們的工地進行評估時，他們會報告說我們的鄰居看起來肯定與我們有很大不同。

And a lot of that is -- we talked about the quality of the real estate, but it's also the upkeep, right? It's very important that you put the money in and you make sure that the trees are appropriately trimmed, that you do the things to make sure that your drains are clear. We go through and we'll drain all of our pools to make sure that we don't have overflow from that.

其中很多是——我們討論了房地產的質量，但它也涉及維護，對吧？投入資金並確保樹木得到適當修剪，並採取措施確保排水溝暢通，這一點非常重要。我們會檢查並排空所有水池，以確保不會溢出。

There's just a lot of factors that we do because, quite frankly, we look after our real estate. And I will tell you that when you drive around, you look at the other -- look at the neighborhood, it's not always the same.

我們做了很多因素，因為坦白說，我們照顧我們的房地產。我會告訴你，當你開車四處走動時，你會看看對方——看看鄰居，它並不總是一樣的。

I'll just keep going. Can you talk about Harvey and the portfolio here and now how we fair --

我會繼續前進。你能談談哈維和這裡的投資組合以及現在我們如何公平嗎--

No, I mean we -- just to follow up on Alex's comment, we're -- our hometown is Houston, Texas. We've had a lot of experience with Dodge and hurricanes and making sure that we're prepared. And then in the aftermath of the hurricanes, making sure that our residents are taken care of.

不，我的意思是我們 - 只是為了跟進亞歷克斯的評論，我們 - 我們的家鄉是德克薩斯州休斯頓。我們在躲避和颶風方面擁有豐富的經驗，並確保我們做好了準備。然後在颶風過後，確保我們的居民得到照顧。

But in Harvey, which is the flood of record in Harris County, probably by most people's estimation, a 500-year flood, we had one building or one community that actually had flood water damage, and it was only two buildings within that community and all of our -- and we're spread all over Harris County.

但在哈維，這是哈里斯縣有記錄的洪水，可能按照大多數人的估計，是一場500 年一遇的洪水，我們有一棟建築或一個社區實際上遭受了洪水破壞，而且該社區內只有兩棟建築，我們所有的人——我們遍布哈里斯縣各地。

So first of all, it starts with having your -- making sure that you buy communities that are out of the flood plane and out of the flood plane by some measure. And so that when the storm does happen, the things that we have to deal with most of the time are things that deal with the quality of the asset that you've built, and that's windstorm damage.

因此，首先，首先要確保您購買的社區不在洪水平面內，並且在某種程度上處於洪水平面之外。因此，當風暴確實發生時，我們大多數時候必須處理的事情是與您所建造的資產的品質有關的事情，那就是風暴損壞。

But it doesn't make any difference what quality you built if you have rising water damage to your community. There's just no way to mitigate that either before or during a storm event. So it starts with knowing where to own real estate in the markets that we're in and then it runs all the way through the things that Alex talked about is great preparation in the event that you are going to have a windstorm event.

但如果您所在社區的水災損失不斷增加，那麼無論您建造的品質如何，都沒有任何影響。無論是在風暴發生之前還是風暴期間，都沒有辦法減輕這種影響。因此，首先要了解在我們所處的市場中哪裡可以擁有房地產，然後一直貫穿亞歷克斯談到的事情，這是在發生暴風雨時做好充分準備的事情。

David Segall, Green Street.

大衛西格爾，格林街。

I was curious what difference in performance do you see between your urban and suburban assets in submarkets? Is it just driven by rent growth? Is there an element of CapEx differences? And I was also curious if you're thinking on the urban, suburban divide is consistent across markets? Or are there any exceptions?

我很好奇您認為您的城市和郊區資產在次市場的表現有何差異？只是租金成長推動的嗎？資本支出是否有差異？我也很好奇您是否認為城市和郊區的劃分在各個市場上是一致的？或有什麼例外嗎？

Yes. I mean what I'll tell you is suburban continues to outperform. And when we look at revenue growth, our suburban assets in the aggregate are doing about 80 basis points better than our urban assets. And by the way, that's across our entire portfolio.

是的。我的意思是，我要告訴你的是郊區繼續表現出色。當我們觀察收入成長時，我們的郊區資產整體表現比城市資產高出約 80 個基點。順便說一句，這涵蓋了我們的整個產品組合。

When you look at demographics, two-thirds of our demographic target lives or more than like 75% of the demographic target that mid-30s, 21- to 32-year-old residents live in suburbs. So that's where the customers are. That's why suburbs tend to be better than urban.

從人口統計來看，我們三分之二的人口目標居住在郊區，或超過 75% 的 30 多歲、21 至 32 歲居民居住在郊區。這就是客戶所在的地方。這就是為什麼郊區往往比城市更好的原因。

And if you think about the development mindset over the last 10 years, everybody want to do urban and urban -- and it was driven by institutional investor appetite. And so urban markets have more supply put in them, which created more downward pressure on rents from the urban core versus suburban and that's changed some.

如果你想想過去十年的發展思維，你會發現每個人都想做城市和城市——這是由機構投資者的胃口驅動的。因此，城市市場有更多的供應，這對城市核心區的租金造成了比郊區更大的下行壓力，這改變了一些情況。

But because the last slug of supply, there is definitely more in the suburbs than -- but there's still plenty of urban. So I think suburban is going to continue to outperform urban over a long period of time.

但由於最後的供應量，郊區的供應量肯定比城市的供應量多，但仍有大量的供應量。因此，我認為在很長一段時間內，郊區的表現將繼續優於城市。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

亞歷克斯·金（Alex Kim），Zelman & Associates。

I wanted to ask about turnover quickly, which was down 4% year-over-year in the third quarter. Could you talk about some of the drivers there and your expectations moving forward?

我想快速詢問一下營業額，第三季營業額年減了 4%。您能談談那裡的一些驅動因素以及您對未來的期望嗎？

Yes. So one of the biggest changes in the turnover rate goes straight back to move-outs to purchase homes. We were in the 9% range and have been for the entire year, which is historic for us. We had normally averaged somewhere between 15% to 20%, move-outs to home purchases depending on where you are in the cycle.

是的。因此，流動率最大的變化之一直接回到了搬出購房的情況。我們全年都處於 9% 的範圍內，這對我們來說是歷史性的。我們通常平均在 15% 到 20% 之間，根據您所處的周期，搬離購屋。

So a 9% rate over an extended period of time makes a huge difference. That 5% to 8% differential in residents that are historically would have purchased a home who are not doing so because of the conditions in the housing market is a difference maker.

因此，在很長一段時間內，9% 的利率會產生巨大的差異。歷史上本來會購買房屋的居民因住房市場狀況而沒有購買房屋的居民之間存在 5% 至 8% 的差異，這是一個差異因素。

So we've seen results on retention, and that's been really for the last couple of years, and we certainly expect that, that will continue into 2025 because, as Rick said, there's really no short-term solution or change that's coming in the single-family and home market that's going to change that dynamic.

因此，我們已經看到了保留率方面的成果，過去幾年確實如此，我們當然預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年，因為正如 Rick 所說，短期內確實沒有解決方案或變化。市場將改變這種動態。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Rick Campo for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給 Rick Campo，讓其發表結束語。

Well, thank you. I appreciate your being on the call today, and we will see you in NAREIT in Las Vegas here in a couple of weeks. Thanks and take care.

嗯，謝謝。感謝您今天接聽電話，幾週後我們將在拉斯維加斯的 NAREIT 與您見面。謝謝並保重。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。