Camden Property Trust (CPT) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Ric Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman; and Alex Jessett, President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加卡姆登地產信託 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係資深副總裁 Kim Callahan。今天與我一起出席的有卡姆登董事長兼執行長 Rick Campo；基斯‧奧登，執行副主席；以及總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。

Today's event is being webcast through the Investors Section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available this afternoon. We will have a slide presentation in conjunction with our prepared remarks and those slides will be available on our website later today or by e-mail upon request.

今天的活動將透過我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分進行網路直播，今天下午將進行重播。我們將結合我們準備好的評論進行幻燈片演示，這些幻燈片將在今天晚些時候在我們的網站上提供，或根據要求透過電子郵件提供。

If you are joining us by phone and need assistance during the call, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key, followed by zero. All participants will be in listen-only mode during the presentation with an opportunity to ask questions afterwards. And please note, this event is being recorded.

如果您透過電話加入我們並在通話過程中需要協助，請按星號鍵，然後按零，向會議專家發出訊號。所有參與者在演示期間都將處於僅聽模式，之後有機會提問。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC, and we encourage you to review them. Any forward-looking statements made on today's call represent management's current opinions, and the company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events.

在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想建議大家，我們將根據我們當前的期望和信念做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述並不是對未來績效的保證，並且涉及可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。有關這些風險的更多資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到，我們鼓勵您查看它們。今天電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表管理層目前的意見，本公司不承擔因後續事件而更新或補充這些陳述的義務。

As a reminder, Camden's complete first quarter 2024 earnings release is available in the Investors Section of our website at camdenliving.com, and it includes reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures, which will be discussed on this call.

提醒一下，卡姆登完整的 2024 年第一季收益發布可在我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分查看，其中包括對非 GAAP 財務指標的調節，這些將在本次電話會議上討論。

We would like to respect everyone's time and complete our call within one hour, so please limit your questions to one, then rejoin the queue if you have additional items to discuss. If we are unable to speak with everyone in the queue today, we'd be happy to respond to additional questions by phone or e-mail after the call concludes. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Ric Campo.

我們希望尊重每個人的時間，並在一小時內完成我們的通話，因此請將您的問題限制為一個，然後如果您還有其他問題要討論，請重新加入隊列。如果我們今天無法與隊列中的每個人交談，我們很樂意在通話結束後透過電話或電子郵件回答其他問題。此時，我會將電話轉給 Ric Campo。

Thanks, Kim. The theme for on-hold music today was celebrations. We recently learned that we were included once again on the Fortune Magazine's annual list of the 100 Best Companies to Work For. This marks 17 consecutive years that Camden has been included on this prestigious list. We celebrate being on the list because it shows that Camden employees value and appreciate being part of a great workplace. 2/3 of a company's score for inclusion on the Fortune list is based on anonymous third-party administered employee survey. If a company's employees don't love what they do in their workplace, there's no chance that a company would ever make the list.

謝謝，金。今天保留音樂的主題是慶祝活動。最近，我們獲悉，我們再次入選《財星》雜誌年度 100 家最佳工作公司名單。這標誌著卡姆登連續 17 年被列入這一享有盛譽的名單。我們慶祝上榜，因為它表明卡姆登員工重視並欣賞成為優秀工作場所的一部分。公司列入《財星》排行榜的分數的 2/3 是基於匿名的第三方管理的員工調查。如果一家公司的員工不喜歡他們在工作場所所做的事情，那麼該公司就不可能上榜。

The survey consists of 60 questions, and the most important is the final one, which asks employees if they agree with this statement. Taking everything into account, would you say this is a great place to work? 95% of the Camden teammates agree with this statement. This is truly remarkable and certainly a cause for celebration. We believe that smiling, motivated and committed Camden teammates serving our residents with purpose and commitment to living excellence, leads to smiling customers, which always leads to smiling shareholders. I want to thank Team Camden for their continued support of improving the lives of our teammates, our customers and our shareholders (inaudible).

調查由 60 個問題組成，最重要的是最後一個問題，詢問員工是否同意這項說法。考慮到所有因素，您認為這是一個工作的好地方嗎？卡姆登95%的隊友都同意這個說法。這確實是一件了不起的事，當然值得慶祝。我們相信，微笑、積極進取、忠誠的卡姆登團隊成員以目標和承諾為居民服務，追求卓越的生活，從而帶來微笑的客戶，而微笑的股東也總是會帶來微笑。我要感謝卡姆登團隊為改善我們的隊友、客戶和股東的生活提供的持續支持（聽不清楚）。

With the first quarter behind us, I will jump right into the issue that we spend most of our time talking about, apartment supply in our markets. Yes, we are at 30-year highs for apartment deliveries. And yes, that is limiting rent growth in most markets for now. The good news is that the market is adjusting quickly to the post-COVID low interest rate development frenzy. March apartment starts were the weakest since April of 2020 and are down 53% from peak volume and falling. Starts will likely fall to just over 200,000 apartments in 2025, primarily driven by low income properties using tax credits and other government support. New delivery should peak in 2024, falling by 31% in 2025 and 50% in 2026, which would be a 13-year supply low point.

隨著第一季的過去，我將直接進入我們大部分時間討論的問題，即我們市場的公寓供應。是的，我們的公寓交付量正處於 30 年來的最高點。是的，這目前限制了大多數市場的租金成長。好消息是，市場正迅速適應新冠疫情後的低利率發展狂潮。 3 月的公寓開工量是自 2020 年 4 月以來最弱的，較高峰成交量下降了 53%，而且還在下降。到 2025 年，公寓開工量可能會降至略高於 20 萬套，這主要是由使用稅收抵免和其他政府支持的低收入房產所推動的。新交付量預計將在 2024 年達到峰值，2025 年將下降 31%，2026 年將下降 50%，這將是 13 年來的供應低點。

Apartment demand continues to be strong. During the first quarter, apartment absorption was over 100,000 apartments, the best first quarter demand in 20 years. The main drivers of apartment demand are population and employment growth, apartment affordability and positive demographic trends. The most recent 2022-2023 census reported that the top 10 cities increased our populations by 710,000. 9 Camden markets are in the top 10. The bottom 10 cities reported a loss of 200,000 people. These were major cities on the West and East Coast where Camden has limited exposure. Employment growth has been robust in all of our markets, except Los Angeles, which continues to struggle.

公寓需求持續強勁。第一季公寓吸收量超過10萬套，是20年來最好的第一季需求。公寓需求的主要驅動力是人口和就業成長、公寓負擔能力和積極的人口趨勢。最近的 2022-2023 年人口普查報告顯示，前 10 個城市的人口增加了 71 萬人。 9 個卡姆登市場位列前 10 名。這些是西海岸和東海岸的主要城市，卡姆登在這些城市的曝光有限。我們所有市場的就業成長都十分強勁，但洛杉磯除外，該市仍在苦苦掙扎。

Apartment affordability continues to improve as residents wage growth has been above 5% for the last 17 months while rents have been relatively flat. Consumers are spending less of their take-home payout for apartments. New Camden residents pay 18.8% of their income towards rents. Mortgage rates and rising home prices have kept move-out to buy homes at historic lows. 9.4% of our move-outs in the first quarter were attributed to a resident's buying-a-home, lowest in our history. The monthly cost of owning a home today is 61% more than leasing an apartment. This is not going to change anytime soon.

過去 17 個月居民薪資成長超過 5%，而租金相對持平，公寓負擔能力持續改善。消費者在公寓上的實得支出正在減少。卡姆登新居民將其收入的 18.8% 用於支付租金。抵押貸款利率和不斷上漲的房價使得人們搬出購房的人數處於歷史低點。第一季 9.4% 的搬遷是由居民買房子造成的，這是我們歷史上的最低水準。如今擁有房屋的每月費用比租賃公寓高出 61%。這不會很快改變。

Demographic trends continue to be a tailwind supporting demand from high propensity to rent groups, including young adults, age 35 and under. Apartment should take a larger share of household formations given these demand drivers. 2024 demand should be sufficient in spite of supply concerns to set up accelerating rent growth for 2025 and 2026, assuming the overall economy continues on the current trajectory. Keith Oden is up next. Thanks.

人口趨勢持續推動高租屋傾向族群（包括 35 歲及以下的年輕人）的需求。考慮到這些需求驅動因素，公寓應該在家庭結構中佔據更大的份額。假設整體經濟繼續按照目前的軌跡發展，儘管存在供應方面的擔憂，2024 年的需求仍將充足，從而使 2025 年和 2026 年的租金成長加速。下一個是基斯·奧登。謝謝。

Thanks, Ric. Our first quarter 2024 same-property performance was better than expected, primarily due to lower levels of bad debt and favorable trends for insurance and property taxes, which Alex will discuss in detail.

謝謝，里克。我們 2024 年第一季的同物業業績優於預期，主要是由於壞帳水準較低以及保險和財產稅的有利趨勢，亞歷克斯將詳細討論這一點。

Overall, operating conditions across our portfolio are playing out as we expected. In our market outlook on last quarter's call, we projected our top 5 markets for revenue growth this year, would be San Diego, Inland Empire, Southeast Florida, Washington, D.C. Metro, LA Orange County in Houston. Not surprisingly, those were, in fact, the top 5 performers for the quarter with same property revenue growth ranging from 3.4% to 6.2% in those markets. And as anticipated, we are seeing the most challenging conditions in Nashville and Austin, with those markets showing slightly negative revenue growth for the quarter.

整體而言，我們投資組合的營運狀況符合我們的預期。在上個季度電話會議的市場展望中，我們預計今年收入成長的前 5 個市場將是聖地牙哥、內陸帝國、佛羅裡達州東南部、華盛頓特區、洛杉磯休士頓橘郡。毫不奇怪，這些市場實際上是本季表現最好的 5 家房地產公司，房地產收入成長率在 3.4% 至 6.2% 之間。正如預期的那樣，我們看到納許維爾和奧斯汀的情況最具挑戰性，這些市場本季的收入略有負成長。

As we previously disclosed, we initiated a marketing strategy during February to boost occupancy going into our peak leasing season, allowing us to then increase pricing power. Rental rates for the first quarter had signed new leases down 4.1%, and renewals up 3.4% for a blended rate of negative 0.9%, with average occupancy of 95%. Our preliminary April results show an improvement of 230 basis points for signed new leases to negative 1.8% with renewal rates at 3.4%, resulting in a positive (inaudible) blended rate. We believe our strategy was successful with April occupancy averaging 95.2% and recently trending around 95.4%. Renewal offers for June and July were sent out with an average increase of 4.2%.

正如我們先前所揭露的，我們在二月啟動了一項行銷策略，以提高租賃旺季的入住率，從而使我們能夠提高定價能力。第一季新簽租賃租金率下降 4.1%，續租租金率上漲 3.4%，綜合租金率為負 0.9%，平均入住率為 95%。我們 4 月的初步結果顯示，簽署的新租約改善了 230 個基點，達到負 1.8%，續約率為 3.4%，從而產生正（聽不清楚）的混合利率。我們相信我們的策略是成功的，4 月份入住率平均為 95.2%，最近趨勢約為 95.4%。 6月和7月的續約報價平均漲幅為4.2%。

And finally, turnover rates across our portfolio remain very low, driven by fewer residents moving out to buy homes. Net turnover for the first quarter of '24 was 34% compared to 36% in the first quarter of '23. I'll now turn the call over to Alex Jessett, Camden's President and Chief Financial Officer.

最後，由於搬出去買房的居民減少，我們的投資組合的周轉率仍然非常低。 24 年第一季的淨營業額為 34%，而 23 年第一季的淨營業額為 36%。我現在將電話轉給卡姆登總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。

Thanks, Keith. Before I move on to our financial results and guidance, a brief update on our recent real estate and capital markets activity. During the first quarter of 2024, we stabilized Camden NoDA, a 387-unit, $108 million community in Charlotte, which is now 99% occupied and generating an approximate 6.5% yield. We began leasing at Camden Long Meadow Farms, a 188-unit, $80 million single-family rental community located in Richmond, Texas, and we continued leasing at Camden Durham, a 420-unit, $145 million new development in Durham, North Carolina, and Camden Woodmill Creek, a 189-unit, $75 million single-family rental community located in The Woodlands, Texas.

謝謝，基斯。在介紹我們的財務表現和指導之前，我先簡單介紹一下我們最近的房地產和資本市場活動。 2024 年第一季度，我們穩定了 Camden NoDA，這是位於夏洛特的一個擁有 387 個單元、價值 1.08 億美元的社區，目前該社區的入住率為 99%，收益率約為 6.5%。我們開始在德克薩斯州里士滿的Camden Long Meadow Farms 進行租賃，這是一個擁有188 個單元、價值8,000 萬美元的單戶租賃社區，並且我們繼續在Camden Durham 進行租賃，這是一個位於北卡羅來納州達勒姆、擁有420 個單元、價值1.45 億美元的新開發項目。 Camden Woodmill Creek 是一個位於德克薩斯州伍德蘭茲的單戶出租社區，擁有189 個單元，價值7500 萬美元。

Additionally, on February 7, we sold Camden Vantage, a 592-unit, 14-year-old community in Atlanta for $115 million.

此外，2 月 7 日，我們以 1.15 億美元的價格出售了位於亞特蘭大的 Camden Vantage，這是一個擁有 592 個單位、已有 14 年歷史的社區。

At the beginning of the quarter, we issued $400 million of 10-year senior unsecured notes with a fixed coupon of 4.9% and a yield of 4.94% and subsequently prepaid our $300 million floating rate term loan. On January 16, we repaid maturity at $250 million, 4.4% senior unsecured note.

本季初，我們發行了 4 億美元的 10 年期優先無抵押票據，固定票息為 4.9%，收益率為 4.94%，隨後預付了 3 億美元的浮動利率定期貸款。 1 月 16 日，我們償還了 2.5 億美元、利率 4.4% 的優先無抵押票據。

In conjunction with the term loan prepayment, we recognized a non-core charge of approximately $900,000 associated with unamortized loan costs. During March and April, we repurchased approximately $50 million of our common shares at an average price of $96.88, and we have $450 million remaining under our existing share repurchase authorization. As of today, approximately 85% of our debt is fixed rate. We have no amounts outstanding on our $1.2 billion credit facility, less than $300 million of maturities over the next 24 months, and less than $100 million left to fund under our existing development pipeline. Our balance sheet remains incredibly strong with net debt-to-EBITDA at 3.9x.

結合定期貸款預付款，我們確認了與未攤銷貸款成本相關的約 90 萬美元的非核心費用。 3 月和 4 月期間，我們以平均價格 96.88 美元回購了約 5,000 萬美元的普通股，現有的股票回購授權還剩 4.5 億美元。截至今天，我們大約 85% 的債務是固定利率的。我們的 12 億美元信貸額度中沒有未償還金額，未來 24 個月內的到期金額不足 3 億美元，現有開發管道下的剩餘資金不足 1 億美元。我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 3.9 倍。

Turning to our financial results. For the first quarter, we reported core FFO of $1.70 per share, $0.03 ahead of the midpoint of our prior quarterly guidance. Our first quarter outperformance was driven in large part by $0.015 per share and lower-than-anticipated levels of bad debt. All of the municipalities in which we operate have now lifted their restrictions on our ability to enforce rental contracts and in particular, Fulton County in Georgia has enacted legislation encouraging renters to abide by their contracts. As a result, we experienced 80 basis points of bad debt in the quarter as compared to our budget of 120 basis points.

轉向我們的財務表現。我們報告第一季度的核心 FFO 為每股 1.70 美元，比我們先前季度指導的中位數高出 0.03 美元。我們第一季的優異表現在很大程度上是由每股 0.015 美元和低於預期的壞帳水準所推動的。我們開展業務的所有城市現已取消對我們執行租賃合約能力的限制，特別是喬治亞州富爾頓縣已頒布立法鼓勵租屋者遵守合約。因此，本季我們的壞帳增加了 80 個基點，而我們的預算為 120 個基點。

Some delinquent renters did repay past due amounts, but more often, we simply received the benefit of having our real estate back, the opportunity to commence a lease with a resident who abides by the rental contract and lower bad debt from having a new resident who actually pays. The accelerated move-outs of delinquent residents did put pressure on our physical occupancy, so we made a pricing strategy shift during the quarter, reducing rental rates at communities less than 95% occupied in order to maximize pricing power as we entered our peak leasing season. As a result of this shift, we experienced higher occupancy during the quarter, but that was entirely offset by lower rental rates.

一些拖欠的租客確實償還了逾期未付款項，但更常見的是，我們只是獲得了收回房地產的好處，有機會與遵守租賃合約的居民開始租賃，並透過新居民減少壞帳實際上是付費的。拖欠居民的加速搬出確實給我們的實體入住帶來了壓力，因此我們在本季度調整了定價策略，降低了入住率低於95% 的社區的租金率，以便在進入租賃旺季時最大限度地發揮定價能力。由於這一轉變，我們在本季度經歷了更高的入住率，但這完全被較低的租金率所抵消。

Our outperformance for the first quarter was also driven by $0.015 and lower operating expenses resulting from lower core insurance claims and lower property taxes. Although we are pleased with our first quarter revenue outperformance, at this point, we are maintaining the midpoint of our full year guidance at 1.5%. However, we are changing some of the underlying assumptions. Our original guidance assumed 1.2% of rent growth comprised of our 50 basis point earn-in at the end of 2023, effectively flat loss to lease and approximately 70 basis points of market rental rate growth recognized over the course of the year. We also assumed flat occupancy versus 2023 and a 30 basis point contribution from lower bad debt, bringing us to our 1.5% total budgeted revenue growth at the midpoint of our original guidance range.

我們第一季的優異表現還得益於 0.015 美元以及核心保險索賠減少和財產稅降低帶來的營運費用降低。儘管我們對第一季的營收表現感到滿意，但目前我們仍將全年指引中位數維持在 1.5%。然而，我們正在改變一些基本假設。我們最初的指導假設租金成長率為 1.2%，其中包括 2023 年底 50 個基點的獲利、有效的租賃虧損以及年內確認的約 70 個基點的市場租金成長率。我們也假設入住率與 2023 年持平，且壞帳減少帶來 30 個基點的貢獻，使我們的預算總收入成長 1.5%，處於最初指導範圍的中點。

Our current revenue guidance reflects the same assumptions of a 50 basis point earning in flat loss to lease, but now with 25 basis points of market rental rate growth and 10 basis points of occupancy gains as a result of our first quarter marketing initiative. In addition, our revised estimates for bad debt will add 65 basis points of revenue growth, bringing us back to the 1.5% midpoint for our current revenue guidance.

我們目前的營收指引反映了相同的假設，即租賃平虧損收益增加 50 個基點，但由於我們第一季的行銷舉措，現在市場租金率成長 25 個基點，入住率成長 10 個基點。此外，我們修訂後的壞帳估計將使收入成長增加 65 個基點，使我們回到當前收入指引的 1.5% 中點。

Last night, we lowered our full year expense guidance from 4.5% to 3.25% entirely driven by the assumption of lower-than-anticipated insurance and property taxes. Insurance represents 7.5% of our expenses and was originally anticipated to increase 18%. In addition to lower insurance claims in the first quarter, we just completed a very successful insurance renewal, and we are now anticipating insurance will be flat year-over-year.

昨晚，我們將全年費用指引從 4.5% 下調至 3.25%，這完全是由於保險和財產稅低於預期的假設。保險占我們開支的 7.5%，最初預計會增加 18%。除了第一季保險理賠下降之外，我們剛剛完成了非常成功的保險續保，我們現在預計保險將比去年同期持平。

Property taxes which represent approximately 36% of our total operating expenses, were originally projected to increase 3% in 2024. We have since received very favorable tax valuations, particularly in Houston, and we are now assuming a 1.5% year-over-year property tax increase. These positive expense variances are partially offset by increases in salaries, in part associated with increased performance incentives and higher marketing costs associated with higher search engine optimization expenses.

財產稅約占我們總營運費用的 36%，最初預計到 2024 年將增加 3%。 。這些正面的費用差異部分被薪資的增加所抵消，部分原因是績效激勵的增加以及與搜尋引擎優化費用增加相關的行銷成本的增加。

After taking into effect the decrease in expenses, we have increased the midpoint of our 2024 same-store NOI guidance from flat to positive 50 basis points. We are maintaining the midpoint of our full year core FFO at $6.74 as the accretion associated with lower same-store operating expenses is entirely offset by higher-than-budgeted floating rate interest expense, primarily as a result of fewer than anticipated Fed rate cuts.

在實施費用減少後，我們將 2024 年同店 NOI 指引的中點從持平提高到正 50 個基點。我們將全年核心 FFO 的中點維持在 6.74 美元，因為與同店營運費用降低相關的增加完全被高於預算的浮動利率利息費用所抵消，這主要是由於聯準會降息幅度少於預期。

At the midpoint of our guidance range, we are still assuming $250 million to the acquisitions, offset by an additional $250 million of dispositions with no net accretion or dilution from these matching transactions, and up to $300 million of development starts in the second half of the year with approximately $175 million of total 2024 development spend.

在我們的指導範圍的中點，我們仍然假設收購金額為2.5 億美元，並被額外的2.5 億美元的處置所抵消，這些匹配交易不會帶來淨增值或稀釋，並且預計下半年將啟動高達3 億美元的開發工作。

We also provided earnings guidance for the second quarter of 2024. We expect core FFO per share for the second quarter to be within the range of $1.65 to $1.69, representing a $0.03 per share sequential decline at the midpoint, primarily resulting from an approximate $0.01 decrease in interest income due to lower cash balances, a $0.01 increase in overhead costs due to the timing of various public company fees, and a $0.01 sequential decrease in same-store NOI as higher expected revenues during our peak leasing periods are offset by the seasonality of certain repair and maintenance expenses and the timing of our annual merit increases. At this time, we'll open the call up to questions.

我們也提供了 2024 年第二季的獲利指引。由於現金餘額減少，利息收入增加；由於各種上市公司費用的時間安排，管理費用增加了0.01 美元；同店NOI 連續下降0.01 美元，因為我們在租賃高峰期的預期收入較高，但被季節性因素所抵銷。此時，我們將開啟電話提問。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

(technical difficulty) get to take -- through the full cycle, we're going to get more of our apartments back. So I think that it's -- the one thing that did make a big difference and probably accelerated our progress, believe it or not, in Fulton County, miracles happened in Fulton County, which was one of our most problematic areas for how long it took to process (inaudible) and the amount of nonpaying residents we had there, they actually passed an ordinance that basically said if you don't pay, (inaudible) rent and you don't pay your rent to the landlord in order to not be evicted. To avoid eviction, you have to pay your rent to the court -- and then the court will -- it's your day of reckoning, the court will either pay the landlord or not or return the rent. That alone was a huge change.

（技術難度）透過整個週期，我們將收回更多的公寓。所以我認為，無論你相信與否，在富爾頓縣，確實產生了重大影響並可能加速我們進步的一件事，奇蹟發生在富爾頓縣，這是我們問題最嚴重的地區之一，花了很長時間為了處理（聽不清楚）和我們在那裡的不付房租的居民數量，他們實際上通過了一項法令，基本上說，如果您不支付（聽不清楚）租金，並且您不向房東支付租金，以免被驅逐。為了避免被驅逐，你必須向法院支付租金 - 然後法院會 - 這是你的清算日，法院要么支付或不支付房東，要么退還租金。僅此一點就是一個巨大的變化。

So the sentiment continues to move in a more positive direction around regulatory regimes, around nonpayment of rent. I think that it's happening a little bit quicker than we anticipated. I do remember that in previous calls, we've been asked are you ever going to get back to 50 basis points bad debt expense, which is what we had for 30 years prior to the change in -- from the COVID experience, and my answer to that was ever is a long time, forever. And so it looks like we're making pretty good progress. 80 basis points of bad debt expense is more than halfway back to our long-term 50 basis point experience for the last 30 years. So I'm more hopeful than I have been in the last 2 years of it that we could, in fact, get back close to that number.

因此，圍繞著監管制度、不支付租金的情緒繼續朝著更積極的方向發展。我認為它發生的速度比我們預期的要快一些。我記得在之前的電話會議中，我們被問到是否可以將壞帳費用恢復到 50 個基點，這是我們在改變之前 30 年的情況——根據新冠疫情的經驗，我的答案是曾經很長一段時間，永遠。所以看起來我們正在取得相當好的進展。 80 個基點的壞帳費用是我們過去 30 年長期 50 個基點經驗的一半以上。因此，我比過去兩年更有希望，事實上我們可以回到接近這個數字。

I think the fact that we can pivot with technology the way we have through adapting to the sort of bad guys who come in and use identity theft to lease apartments and then go through the process. So the fact that we're trying to -- that we're able to pivot with new technology to be able to find out -- to meet those people out before they get into our properties is a big part of the equation. And it's sort of like anything else when you have -- when the bad guys figure out that they can't get in the front door, they go to somebody else. And so I think I'm really excited about being able to deploy technology as quickly as we did and adapt to that situation.

我認為事實上，我們可以透過適應那些進來並使用身份盜竊來租賃公寓然後完成整個過程的壞人，以我們現有的方式調整技術。因此，我們正在努力——我們能夠利用新技術來找到答案——在這些人進入我們的房產之前與他們會面，這是這個方程式的重要組成部分。這有點像其他任何事情——當壞人發現他們無法進入前門時，他們就會去找其他人。因此，我認為我對能夠像我們一樣快速部署技術並適應這種情況感到非常興奮。

The next question comes from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Haendel St. Juste。

Ric or maybe Keith, can you talk a bit about what the operating strategy here for the portfolio going into peak leasing? You talked about pulling back a bit on rate to get occupancy to 95%. It seems like you've maintained that in April. So I'm curious, is the plan to continue to push rate here? Are you willing to trade some occupancy, and maybe which markets do you expect to be able to push rent a bit more near term beyond (inaudible)?

Ric 或 Keith，您能談談進入租賃高峰期的投資組合的營運策略嗎？您談到要稍微降低入住率以使入住率達到 95%。看來你在四月一直保持著這一點。所以我很好奇，是否有計畫繼續調高利率？您是否願意交換一些入住率，也許您預期哪些市場能夠在短期內進一步推高租金（聽不清楚）？

Go ahead, Keith. Go ahead.

繼續吧，基斯。前進。

We're back basically where we want to be from an occupancy standpoint. We were 95.2% at the end of the quarter, and we've actually trended up a little bit since then in the month of April, where we got to 95.4% occupied. And again, we're not looking for making the decisions on pricing. We're not looking at necessarily what in-place occupancy is. We're looking at 6 weeks, 8 weeks out on projections. And as we look at what we see right now, we've got -- regained the occupancy in real time that we wanted to. And the next step is you push rents.

從入住率的角度來看，我們基本上回到了我們想要的位置。本季末我們的入住率達到 95.2%，從那時起我們實際上在 4 月略有上升，入住率達到 95.4%。再說一次，我們並不是在尋求定價決策。我們不一定要考慮什麼是就地佔用率。我們正在考慮 6 週、8 週的預測。當我們看看現在所看到的情況時，我們已經重新獲得了我們想要的即時佔用率。下一步是推高租金。

So I think our -- the opportunity that we're going to continue to have in the better markets that are less supply impacted, we'll be able to push rents and should be able to hit our revenue targets for the year. I'm certainly pleased to see the kind of relative pricing power that we have in our D.C. Metro and in Houston. Those 2 markets are really important for us. They're 25% of our same-store pool. And those are both performing really quite well. And I think that there's a good chance that, that will continue.

因此，我認為我們將繼續在供應影響較小的更好市場中擁有機會，我們將能夠提高租金，並且應該能夠達到我們今年的收入目標。我當然很高興看到我們在華盛頓地鐵和休士頓擁有的相對定價能力。這兩個市場對我們來說非常重要。它們占我們同店庫存的 25%。這些都表現得非常好。我認為這種情況很有可能會持續下去。

I appreciate that. If I could ask about new lease rates. You mentioned that you had tweaked some of the underlying assumptions within your same-store revenue, but can you talk about what your expectation on the new lease rate side is here? Maybe give us a sense of where you expect that to be broadly for the year and maybe over the next couple of quarters?

我很感激。如果我可以詢問新的租賃費率。您提到您已經調整了同店收入中的一些基本假設，但是您能談談您對新租賃率的期望嗎？也許能讓我們了解一下您對今年乃至未來幾季的整體預期？

Yes, absolutely. So when we're looking at new leases, we're assuming that we're going to be probably right around a negative 2% for the second quarter and then negative 1% for the next 2 quarters after that.

是的，一點沒錯。因此，當我們考慮新租賃時，我們假設第二季的租金收入可能會出現負 2% 左右，然後接下來的兩個季度會出現負 1% 的情況。

The next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John Kim。

Can I just follow up on that? So your guidance now has 25 basis points of market rental growth, and that's down from the original guidance that's offset by higher occupancy and better bad debt. But I guess my question is how realistic is that 25 basis points? Is that something that you just plug into maintain your same-store revenue guidance? Or do you think that's what you're going to achieve?

我可以跟進一下嗎？因此，您的指導現在市場租金增長了 25 個基點，這低於最初的指導，但被更高的入住率和更好的壞帳所抵消。但我想我的問題是 25 個基點有多現實？這是您只需插入即可維持同店收入指導的東西嗎？還是你認為這就是你要實現的目標嗎？

No. It's absolutely what we think we're going to achieve. Obviously, what we do is we look at the conditions on the ground, we look at our third-party data providers, and we take all that information and just like we do our original budgets, we do reforecast from the community level on up, and so this is exactly what we expect to achieve.

不，這絕對是我們認為我們將要實現的目標。顯然，我們所做的是研究實地情況，研究第三方數據提供商，我們獲取所有這些信息，就像我們做原始預算一樣，我們從社區層面進行重新預測，這正是我們期望實現的目標。

And is that the occupancy versus rate trade-off? Or are there some markets that are potentially underperforming your original expectations?

這是入住率與房價的權衡嗎？或者是否有一些市場的表現可能低於您最初的預期？

Well, if you think about it on the occupancy side, all of our markets are doing better than we thought on occupancy. And then clearly, we're bringing down the rental rates. The rental rate bring-down is generally across the board. The offset, once again, is the much lower bad debt.

好吧，如果你從入住率方面考慮，我們所有的市場在入住率方面的表現都比我們想像的要好。顯然，我們正在降低租金。租金率普遍下降。壞帳的降低再次抵消了這一影響。

The next question comes from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

Alex, just wanted to clarify what the revised lease rate growth assumption is for this year versus the 1.2% you had previously provided. And can you just share, I guess, what the implied lease rate growth is that you need for the balance of the year?

Alex，只是想澄清今年修訂後的租賃率成長假設與您之前提供的 1.2% 相比是多少。我想，您能否分享一下今年剩餘時間您需要的隱含租賃率成長是多少？

Yes. I mean here's probably the best way to think about it. We're assuming a 75% blend new lease and renewals for the full year, 75 basis point positive. And so you've got a component of that, that is picking up the earn-in. And then you've got -- which is about 50 basis points. And then you've got the 25 basis points that you're getting from the market rent growth to that. So I guess it is 75 basis points. To that, you're going to add to 10 basis points of higher occupancy '24 versus '23, that gets you to 85 basis points. And then we're assuming that our bad debt is going to be 75 basis points for the full year. That compares to 140 basis points last year. So that's a 65 basis point pickup, and that's how you get to the 1.5%.

是的。我的意思是，這可能是思考這個問題的最佳方式。我們假設全年新租和續租比例為 75%，即 75 個基點。所以你已經得到了其中的一個組成部分，那就是賺取收益。然後你就得到了——大約 50 個基點。然後你就可以從市場租金成長中得到 25 個基點。所以我猜是75個基點。為此，24 年的入住率比 23 年的入住率增加 10 個基點，即 85 個基點。然後我們假設全年壞帳為 75 個基點。相比之下，去年為 140 個基點。所以這是 65 個基點的回升，這就是你達到 1.5% 的方法。

Got it. Okay. So it seems like about 1.25% to 1.5% from here out on the blend is kind of the math I was getting to?

知道了。好的。所以看起來大約 1.25% 到 1.5% 從現在開始混合是我所得到的數學？

Yes. That's right.

是的。這是正確的。

Ric, I guess. Ric, with the set-up you highlighted in your prepared remarks around the strong absorption, supply is poised to hit multiyear lows in the next couple of years. I guess how do you further take advantage of that backdrop prior to development ramping back up and just -- other types of activity with others being in a better position from a cost of capital and financing market perspective?

里克，我猜。里克（Ric），根據您在準備好的發言中強調的圍繞強勁吸收的設置，供應量有望在未來幾年內觸及多年低點。我想，在發展回升之前，您如何進一步利用這個背景，以及其他類型的活動，而其他類型的活動從資本成本和融資市場的角度來看處於更好的位置？

Well, clearly, the -- when you think about how you set up for '26, '27, it would be on the development side of the equation, we have a decent pipeline that we can start. And -- and I guess the real question is, when do you pivot? And I think as we see more cards in terms of how the absorption and the demand continues, if it continues the way we think it could and should continue given everything that we talked about earlier, then you will see us pivot and get more aggressive on the development side towards the end of the year and beginning of next year.

嗯，很明顯，當你考慮如何為 26、27 做準備時，這將是在等式的開發方面，我們有一個可以啟動的不錯的管道。而且──我想真正的問題是，你什麼時候轉向？我認為，隨著我們在吸收和需求如何持續方面看到更多牌，如果它繼續按照我們認為可以而且應該繼續的方式，考慮到我們之前討論的一切，那麼你會看到我們轉向並變得更積極到年底和明年初的發展面。

Clearly, right now, the best trade in the first quarter was selling assets and buying stock. And we're buying stock at a high 6 cap rate when the market is trading today at a low 5 cap rate. And so it's a very reasonable trade to make. And so ultimately, we'll be able to pivot to a more aggressive mode when we start seeing that the supply does get taken up between now and, say, the middle of the summer. And we really need to see that the peak leasing season and how that unfolds for us to get more aggressive at this point.

顯然，目前第一季最好的交易是出售資產和購買股票。當今天市場以較低的 5​​ 上限利率交易時，我們以高 6 上限利率購買股票。所以這是一筆非常合理的交易。因此，最終，當我們開始看到從現在到夏季中期的供應確實被佔用時，我們將能夠轉向更積極的模式。我們確實需要看到租賃旺季以及它如何展開，以便我們在此時變得更加積極。

The next questions is from Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

接下來的問題來自 Rich Anderson 和 Wedbush。

And I'm trying to keep to the one-question rule here. So yes, it's just observational stuff. It's pretty easy. So what do you think explains the difference in perspective between you guys saying accelerating rent growth in 2025 and '26 and Equity Residential and AvalonBay, which essentially think that you're not going to get any rent growth until 2026. Is there an interpretation issue? Is it just you have more information, so you have more sort of knowledge is a concern when you hear them say that because they're not dummies either. So like I'm just curious what you think the difference is?

我在這裡試圖遵守一個問題的規則。所以是的，這只是觀察性的東西。這很容易。那麼，您認為如何解釋您所說的 2025 年和 26 年租金增長加速以及 Equity Residential 和 AvalonBay 之間的觀點差異，後者本質上認為直到 2026 年才會出現任何租金增長。當你聽到他們這麼說時，你是否擁有更多的信息，所以你有更多的知識，這是一個問題，因為他們也不是傻瓜。所以我只是好奇你認為差別是什麼？

I think the difference is, is that pretty much everybody talks to their book, and that's part of it.

我認為差別在於，幾乎每個人都在談論他們的書，這就是其中的一部分。

Is that what you're doing?

你就是這麼做的嗎？

No. Well, sure, you're going to -- we're going to -- if we didn't believe what we're saying, we wouldn't say it, and I'm sure they believe what they say. But the issue is they're not operating in these markets. So I'm not going to opine about what San Francisco is doing, even though San Francisco hasn't added back their jobs that they lost during COVID, yet -- if you look at -- so we look at our markets, and I use a fair -- we use a fair number of data providers. And when you look at some of those data providers, they show pretty good demand and their numbers are sort of -- when you look at (inaudible), for example, (inaudible) around for a long time, showing accelerating rent growth in 2025 because of the excess of this demand that's coming from multifamily because of all the things we talked about at the beginning.

不，當然，你會——我們會——如果我們不相信我們所說的話，我們就不會說出來，而且我確信他們相信他們所說的話。但問題是他們不在這些市場開展業務。因此，我不會對舊金山正在做的事情發表意見，儘管舊金山還沒有恢復他們在新冠疫情期間失去的工作崗位，但是——如果你看看——所以我們看看我們的市場，我使用公平— —我們使用相當數量的資料提供者。當你查看其中一些數據提供者時，他們顯示出相當不錯的需求，並且他們的數字有點- 當你查看（聽不清楚）時，例如，（聽不清楚）很長一段時間，顯示2025 年租金成長加速因為我們一開始談到的所有事情都導致多戶家庭的需求過剩。

So -- so I think there's a certain amount of bias that everybody has about their own markets, and we operate in these markets. We're seeing what's happening every day. Pretty hard for me if I had 2 properties or 3 properties in New York City, does that give me a sense of what's going on in New York City and the answer would be no. You have to have a broad sense of these markets. We've operated in our markets for over 30 years. We understand how the dynamics work -- and some of the numbers are just incredibly compelling. Like, for example, let's take LA and San Francisco. Both have -- LA still has 43,000 jobs lost since 2019, San Francisco, 52,000 jobs lost. Dallas added 418,000 jobs from '19, Houston 233,000, Austin 205,000, Phoenix 223,000. So the bottom line is, is that what's been driving the markets in the Sunbelt continues to drive those markets. And the fact that our West Coast and East Coast brethren are doing better than us from a revenue growth perspective is because their hole was so deep that they're just crawling out of a deep hole. And yes, that's a good way to place stocks now and then. But I don't understand the 100 basis point gap between the implied cap rate for Mid-American Camden versus Equity and AvalonBay. And so because ultimately, what's going to happen is that when the markets write themselves from a supply perspective, the same thing that drove outperformance of revenue growth in the past, which is job growth and household formation and all the positive things that are going on in these markets is going to continue.

因此，我認為每個人對自己的市場都有一定程度的偏見，而我們在這些市場中開展業務。我們每天都在看到正在發生的事情。如果我在紐約市擁有 2 或 3 處房產，這對我來說相當困難，這是否能讓我了解紐約市正在發生的事情，答案是否定的。您必須對這些市場有廣泛的了解。我們已經在我們的市場經營了 30 多年。我們了解動態是如何運作的——其中一些數字非常引人注目。例如，讓我們以洛杉磯和舊金山為例。自 2019 年以來，洛杉磯仍失去了 43,000 個工作崗位，舊金山則失去了 52,000 個工作崗位。達拉斯比 19 年增加了 418,000 個工作崗位，休士頓增加了 233,000 個，奧斯汀增加了 205,000 個，菲尼克斯增加了 223,000 個。因此，底線是，推動陽光地帶市場的因素將繼續推動這些市場。事實上，從收入成長的角度來看，我們的西海岸和東海岸兄弟比我們做得更好，因為他們的洞太深了，他們只是從深洞裡爬出來。是的，這是時不時放置股票的好方法。但我不明白 Mid-American Camden 與 Equity 和 AvalonBay 的隱含上限利率之間有 100 個基點的差距。因此，因為最終將會發生的是，當市場從供應角度書寫自己時，過去推動收入成長表現出色的因素是就業成長和家庭形成以及所有正在發生的積極因素這些市場的發展將會持續下去。

So unless you bet that we're going back to the sexy 6 cities that get all the growth, I don't think that's going to happen. I think there's a fundamental change in the dynamics between growth in these markets and growth in the East Coast, West Coast markets. And we can all agree to disagree, but that's what you guys do is you buy stocks based on that, right? So we'll see who's right.

因此，除非你打賭我們會回到那些獲得所有成長的性感 6 個城市，否則我認為這種情況不會發生。我認為這些市場的成長與東海岸、西岸市場的成長之間的動態發生了根本性的變化。我們都可以同意不同意，但這就是你們所做的就是基於此購買股票，對吧？所以我們會看看誰是對的。

Next question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Steve Sakwa。

Great. Ric, I guess I wanted to piggy-back on your comment about the possibility of starting some new development. And I'm just curious which markets are kind of higher up on your list? And if you looked at the economics today, where do those deals pencil? Or how far away are they from actually penciling where you think the development needs to be?

偉大的。里克，我想我想藉用你關於開始一些新開發的可能性的評論。我只是好奇哪些市場在您的名單上排名靠前？如果你看看今天的經濟，你會發現這些交易在哪裡？或者他們離你認為的實際發展需要有多遠？

Well, development needs, it would be -- if you look at our development page in our supplement, you'll see where we have development and where they're positioned. And we have developments. I would say that the closer ones would start would be Charlotte. And Charlotte is absorbing, you think about the supply push, and Charlotte has a big supply push, but we're leasing over 40 units. We're leasing 40 units a month at our new developments there. And it's just really quickly and at a decent rates and -- and so I would say it would be -- go down that list, and you'll see where it is. But the economic issues, some properties, clearly, depending on where you are, we have 2 developments in Nashville, for example, and Nashville does have a bigger supply issue than most cities between Austin and Nashville have the biggest supply -- the new supply coming online. So we're going to take a hard look at those numbers.

嗯，發展需求，如果你看看我們的補充中的發展頁面，你會看到我們有哪些發展以及它們的定位。我們有進展。我想說，最接近的首發將是夏洛特。夏洛特很吸引人，你想想供應的推動，夏洛特有很大的供應推動，但我們租賃了 40 多個單位。我們在那裡的新開發案每月出租 40 個單位。而且它的速度非常快，而且價格也很合理——所以我想說的是——沿著這個清單，你就會看到它在哪裡。但經濟問題，一些房產，顯然，取決於你在哪裡，例如，我們在納什維爾有兩個開發項目，納什維爾確實比奧斯汀和納什維爾之間的大多數城市有更大的供應問題，供應量最大——新供應即將上線。因此，我們將仔細研究這些數字。

But when you look at current cap rates today, I know it hurts people's head to think that they're in the low 5s, we have trades that are going on today in the high 4s. And even though you have negative leverage, they're basically buying based on the pound. They're buying at 40%, 50% of replacement cost and their bet is, is that when supply is absorbed, that there is going to be rent spikes that happened in 2026, '27, '28 that are going to be similar to '12, '13, '14 -- and that -- and so if you -- if we do a pro forma like that, then most of our developments are going to be in the 6s. And so I think that makes sense. But the question is, we still need to see this the leasing season this year and have more confidence that before we commit a lot of capital to development, we need to see more cards. And so to me, it's just looking at the supplement, you'll see where our starts are.

但是，當你看看今天目前的資本化率時，我知道人們認為他們的資本化率處於 5 左右的低位，這很傷人，而我們今天正在進行的交易卻處於 4 左右的高位。即使你有負槓桿，他們基本上也是根據英鎊購買的。他們以重置成本的 40%、50% 購買，他們的賭注是，當供應被吸收時，2026 年、27 年、28 年將出現租金飆升，這將類似於'12、'13、'14 -以及- 所以如果你- 如果我們做這樣的備考，那麼我們的大部分進展將在6 年代。所以我認為這是有道理的。但問題是，我們仍然需要看到今年的租賃季，並更有信心，在我們投入大量資金進行開發之前，我們需要看到更多的牌。所以對我來說，只要看看補充，你就會知道我們的起點在哪裡。

The next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Alexander Goldfarb 和 Piper Sandler。

Ric, hopefully, you trademark (inaudible) that sounds like it could be a good moneymaker. So going to the jobs and the strength of the Sunbelt, clearly, a lot of supply, but what's been going on across earnings season is everyone is talking about the strong jobs in the Sunbelt, but at the same time, general, the talking heads and economists and everyone is talking about potential for recession, hard landing, hey, the job -- the economy is not great, and yet all the apartments are talking about really good demand. And it's hard to believe that it's only because move-outs to homes are low and your typical renter can't afford a home. So it does seem like the economy is stronger across the Sunbelt in your markets than what the talking heads would say. Would you agree with that? Or is there something else that's explaining the disconnect between the broader economic concerns versus the absorption and the demand that you're seeing in your markets?

Ric，希望你的商標（聽不清楚）聽起來像是個很好的賺錢工具。因此，談到陽光地帶的就業機會和實力，顯然，供應量很大，但整個財報季的情況是，每個人都在談論陽光地帶的強勁就業機會，但與此同時，一般來說，談話的負責人經濟學家和每個人都在談論經濟衰退、硬著陸的可能性，嘿，工作——經濟不太好，但所有的公寓都在談論真正良好的需求。很難相信這只是因為搬出房屋的比例很低，而且典型的租屋者買不起房子。因此，整個陽光地帶市場的經濟似乎確實比那些談論者所說的更強勁。你同意嗎？還是有其他因素可以解釋更廣泛的經濟擔憂與您在市場中看到的吸收和需求之間的脫節？

Well, I think the idea that you have the risk of recession and hard landing or soft landing, that's out there for sure. There's no question about that. And I think that's what (inaudible) about, right? I mean if you look at the first quarter and then the print -- the job print that just happened, 175,000 jobs that was published today, I think that job number -- the consensus was (inaudible) -- and of course, the market rallies to 10 years rallying big time (inaudible) because that's a kind of scenario, right, where it's not (inaudible) and so I think that question is I think there's still a concern about what the Fed does and do they ease or do we have a soft landing.

嗯，我認為存在經濟衰退和硬著陸或軟著陸風險的想法是肯定的。毫無疑問。我認為這就是（聽不清楚）的意思，對嗎？我的意思是，如果你看看第一季度，然後是印刷品——剛剛發生的就業印刷，今天發布的 175,000 份工作，我認為就業數量——共識是（聽不清楚）——當然還有市場反彈到10 年反彈的大時刻（聽不清楚），因為這是一種情況，對吧，但它不是（聽不清楚），所以我認為問題是，我認為人們仍然擔心聯準會會做什麼，他們會放鬆貨幣政策還是我們會放鬆貨幣政策？

If we have a hard landing, then all bets are off, right? I mean what drives multifamily demand and any demand for any product ultimately is economy, so economy today is good. The jobs have been plentiful, and they've been primarily in the Sunbelt. And I think as long as we have the same kind of economic construct or a soft landing scenario, then work demand to take up the supply and our numbers will be what our numbers are. But on the other hand, if you have a hard landing and we lose 2 or 3 million jobs, then (inaudible).

如果我們硬著陸，那麼所有的賭注都會落空，對嗎？我的意思是，推動多戶家庭需求以及對任何產品的任何需求最終都是經濟，所以今天的經濟狀況良好。工作機會很多，而且主要集中在陽光地帶。我認為，只要我們有同樣的經濟結構或軟著陸方案，那麼工作需求就會佔據供應，我們的數字就會是我們的數字。但另一方面，如果硬著陸，我們就會失去 2 或 300 萬個工作崗位，那麼（聽不清楚）。

Next question comes from Eric Wolfe with Citibank.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫。

I think you said that you expect a 10 bps contribution from occupancy now. So just trying to go through the math, I think that means that you're expecting like 95.4% through the year, which would mean they call it, like 95.5% through the remainder of the year just based on what you've done so far. Is that the right way to think about sort of what you think occupancy will average?

我想您說過您預計現在入住率將帶來 10 個基點的貢獻。所以，只要算一下數學，我認為這意味著你預計這一年的成功率為 95.4%，這意味著他們稱之為，根據你所做的事情，今年剩餘時間的成功率為 95.5%遠的。這是考慮平均入住率的正確方法嗎？

That's exactly right. So we're assuming that we're going to be at about 95.4% for the second quarter, 95.5% for the third quarter and 95.4% for the fourth quarter, so exactly in line with your math.

完全正確。因此，我們假設第二季約為 95.4%，第三季為 95.5%，第四季為 95.4%，因此與您的數學完全一致。

Got you. And then you touched on this briefly, but you said that the sort of forward indicators of occupancy were telling you that there could be some improvement. I was just wondering if you could maybe go through like the lease rate, the percentage of tenants renewing, just sort of anything that you're seeing that sort of gives you confidence that occupancy should continue to rise?

明白你了。然後您簡短地談到了這一點，但您說入住率的前瞻性指標告訴您可能會有一些改進。我只是想知道你是否可以了解租賃率、續租租戶的百分比，以及你所看到的任何能讓你相信入住率應該繼續上升的東西？

Yes. So what I was referring to, Eric, is the -- when we think about making adjustments to strategy, obviously, we use YieldStar and YieldStar is forward-looking. It's always looking at least 8 -- 6 to 8 weeks out for trends. It projects kind of what future occupancy is going to be based on where our portfolio is at the time, renewal -- lease renewals that are upcoming, et cetera. So when we have -- when we're making strategy changes, it's in conjunction with our revenue management team who are using the tool that we have, which is you'll start to inform us about not like what's on the ground today. That's obvious. We know what that is.

是的。 Eric，我指的是——當我們考慮調整策略時，顯然我們使用 YieldStar，而 YieldStar 具有前瞻性。它總是關注至少 8 - 6 至 8 週的趨勢。它根據我們當時的投資組合狀況、續約——即將到來的租約續約等來預測未來的入住率。因此，當我們做出策略性改變時，我們會與我們的收入管理團隊合作，他們正在使用我們現有的工具，您將開始告訴我們與今天不同的情況。這是顯而易見的。我們知道那是什麼。

The question is, what is it going to be if we continue on this path and either don't make a strategy change or we do make a strategy change, what does that project our occupancy to be 8 weeks out? So as we look at it today, we're encouraged that to the point where we're going to -- the tool and the algorithm that is YieldStar is going to say, you have the opportunity to increase rents across certain markets, and we'll take advantage of that. But that's -- that's all I was referring to is that the model is forward-looking. We used the model and obviously, with a lot of history and experience and judgment applied to it to help us make decisions about strategy.

問題是，如果我們繼續沿著這條路走下去，要么不做出戰略改變，要么做出戰略改變，結果會怎樣？因此，當我們今天看到這一點時，我們感到鼓舞的是，YieldStar 的工具和演算法會說，你有機會提高某些市場的租金，而且我們會利用這一點。但這就是我所指的只是該模型具有前瞻性。我們使用了該模型，顯然，我們將大量的歷史、經驗和判斷應用於它來幫助我們做出戰略決策。

The next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Great. So I'd like to go back to your thoughts on just capital allocation. I know you had mentioned buying the stock near 6 and cap rates near 5, but if you're thinking you get red spikes a couple of years out, I know you had mentioned $450 million or so left on the repurchase plan. But just how do you think about the next $100 million, $200 million as you think about what's going on in the markets. And if this is the window to actually buy or do any kind of -- I know you don't love JVs, but any kind of investment across the capital stack versus buying back shares?

偉大的。所以我想回到你對資本配置的想法。我知道您曾提到在接近 6 的價格和接近 5 的上限利率下購買該股票，但如果您認為幾年後會出現紅色峰值，我知道您曾提到回購計劃還剩 4.5 億美元左右。但當你思考市場正在發生的事情時，你會如何看待接下來的 1 億美元、2 億美元。如果這是實際購買或進行任何類型的操作的窗口 - 我知道您不喜歡合資企業，但是與回購股票相比，跨資本堆疊的任何類型的投資？

Well, the -- you're right, we don't like JV, so we won't be doing that. We have the most pristine balance sheet from an ownership perspective. We own 100% of everything we own. We don't have any partners, so we do what we want when we want to do it.

嗯，你是對的，我們不喜歡合資企業，所以我們不會這樣做。從所有權角度來看，我們擁有最原始的資產負債表。我們擁有我們所擁有的一切的 100%。我們沒有任何合作夥伴，所以我們想做什麼就做什麼。

The issue of capital allocation, it's one of those interesting discussions. We've always said that if there's a big disconnect between our stock price, our stock price is 20-plus percent below what we think the value of the underlying assets are and that it's persistent over time when we can sell assets and buy stock, that is something we do. And we obviously did that in the first quarter, and we'll be considering that again as we go forward into the rest of the year.

資本配置問題是有趣的討論之一。我們總是說，如果我們的股價之間存在很大的脫節，那麼我們的股價就會比我們認為的基礎資產價值低20% 以上，並且隨著時間的推移，當我們可以出售資產並購買股票時，這種脫節會持續存在，而這就是我們所做的事情。顯然，我們在第一季就做到了這一點，當我們進入今年剩餘時間時，我們將再次考慮這一點。

And then ultimately, when we decide to move to offense, in terms of starting new developments and potentially acquisitions as well, I think this market is an interesting market. If you look at just the -- maybe the (inaudible) going to improve people's outlets on transaction volumes because it sort of people came in at the beginning of the quarter when the tenure was doing pretty well at the beginning of the quarter and then all of a sudden had the big run-up that sort of (inaudible) the energy that people had in the transaction market because if you look back, we're at transaction levels that haven't been seen since 2014.

最終，當我們決定進攻時，就開始新的開發和潛在的收購而言，我認為這個市場是一個有趣的市場。如果你只看一下——也許（聽不清楚）會改善人們的交易量，因為有些人是在季度初進來的，當時任期在季度初表現得很好，然後所有的人突然之間，人們在交易市場上的能量（聽不見）大幅上升，因為如果你回頭看，我們正處於2014 年以來從未見過的交易水平。

So there's just not a lot of deals going on. But there should be some interesting opportunities to buy and sell where we sell some of our properties, buy other properties just to move the (inaudible) on our portfolio to improve the quality and ultimately, the growth rate going forward, maybe market concentration.

所以沒有太多交易正在進行中。但應該有一些有趣的買賣機會，我們出售一些房產，購買其他房產，只是為了改變我們投資組合的（聽不清楚）以提高品質，並最終提高未來的成長率，也許是市場集中度。

So we'll look at all of those things. But like I said before, -- the -- in order for us to go on offense, we really have to -- have the peak leasing season come through the way we think it will.

所以我們將研究所有這些事情。但正如我之前所說，為了讓我們繼續進攻，我們確實必須讓租賃旺季以我們想像的方式到來。

The next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is Ami on for Michael. I was just wondering, it sounds like you've made a lot of progress on the bad debt, so that's good. Is this pace of bad debt reduction sustainable? And is there potentially room for you to improve bad debt below the historical average with the enhanced screening processes?

這是阿米為麥可代言的。我只是想知道，聽起來你在壞帳方面取得了很大進展，所以這很好。這種壞帳減少速度是否可持續？透過加強篩選流程，您是否有可能將壞帳改善至歷史平均值以下？

Well, so the first thing I would tell you is, we think bad debt as it is today is absolutely sustainable. Keith talked about it quite a bit. If you think about Atlanta was one of our problem markets. And obviously, we have legislation there that's really helpful for us today and making sure that we can enforce contracts. And so we think we are today is certainly sustainable, and that's why we have it running through the rest of the year. Getting below 50 basis points, which is the long-term average, I think we'll have to see.

好吧，我要告訴你的第一件事是，我們認為目前的壞帳是絕對可持續的。基斯對此談了很多。如果你認為亞特蘭大是我們的問題市場之一。顯然，我們在那裡的立法對我們今天確實有幫助，並確保我們能夠執行合約。因此，我們認為我們今天的狀況肯定是可持續的，這就是為什麼我們讓它在今年剩餘的時間裡持續下去。我認為我們必須看看是否會跌破長期平均 50 個基點。

What we're trying to figure out today is whether or not consumer behavior has changed for the worse. And if it has, then I think it's going to be probably a constant battle through the use of technology to offset consumer behavior. But at this point, we're optimistic that we can at least get back to 50 basis points, but certainly not putting any bets on getting better than 50%.

我們今天想要弄清楚的是，消費者行為是否已經變得更糟。如果確實如此，那麼我認為這可能會是一場透過使用科技來抵消消費者行為的持續鬥爭。但目前，我們樂觀地認為，我們至少可以回到 50 個基點，但肯定不會押注會比 50%好。

And let me just. Go ahead, sorry.

讓我說吧。 繼續吧，抱歉。

The next question comes from Daniel (inaudible) with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的丹尼爾（聽不清楚）。

Alex, I just wanted to clarify the second half negative 1% new lease rate growth you mentioned earlier. Does that assume the leases get to flat or positive in the third quarter before normal seasonality kind of takes over in the fourth quarter? Or is there a -- is there like a different rent dynamic assumed given the supply backdrop?

Alex，我只是想澄清一下您之前提到的下半年新租賃利率負 1% 的成長。這是否假設在第四季出現正常季節性之前，第三季的租賃量將持平或呈正值？或者考慮到供應背景，是否有不同的租金動態？

Yes. No. So if you think about it, the negative 1% is fairly consistent from the third quarter and the fourth quarter. So -- but the offset to that is obviously renewals. And so we're assuming that renewals are going to be close to 4% for the third and fourth quarter. So that's the offset, and that's how you get to the blend that we're talking about. And just once again, the blend that we're assuming in the third quarter is 1.6% and 1.2% in the fourth quarter.

是的。不。 所以如果你仔細想想，第三季和第四季的負 1% 是相當一致的。所以——但對此的抵銷顯然是續約。因此，我們假設第三季和第四季的續訂率將接近 4%。這就是偏移量，這就是我們所討論的混合的方式。再次強調，我們假設第三季的成長率為 1.6%，第四季的成長率為 1.2%。

So whether or not there comes a point in time where new leases are flat, we do not have that running through our model today.

因此，無論是否存在新租約持平的時間點，我們今天的模型都沒有這種情況。

The next question comes from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Adam Kramer。

I wanted to ask about the cadence of supply, really the cadence of deliveries in the coming quarters and really into next year. I think the improvement so far year-to-date in new lease and what you'd be able to do with occupancy at the same time, I think are impressive in the face of kind of this unprecedented supply. I really just want to know as deliveries presumably accelerate over the coming months and quarter or 2, kind of how you view absorptions kind of in light again on this kind of accelerating delivery cadence?

我想詢問供應節奏，實際上是未來幾季甚至明年的交付節奏。我認為，面對這種前所未有的供應，今年迄今新租賃的改善以及同時入住率的改善令人印象深刻。我真的只是想知道，隨著未來幾個月、一個季度或兩個季度的交付可能會加速，您如何看待這種加速交付節奏的吸收情況？

Yes. So the -- we use -- again, (inaudible) numbers primarily because I think he does a little bit better work, more detailed work around the pace of deliveries. And across Camden's portfolio for 20 for this year, Witten projects about 230,000 of completions. Now if you get into the granularity of how that occurs, there's probably a slight deceleration to that because Witten's got deliveries in 2025 at about 200,000. So a decline overall of about 30,000 year-over-year between '24 and '25. But the question of that deliveries that are going to happen in 2025, I don't think there's any question that that's going to be front-end loaded because if you go back and look at the (inaudible) data was kind of falling pretty dramatically if you kind of go to reverse engineer it 18 months backwards. So my guess is that that's pretty front-end loaded in 2025. And obviously, supply is supply, and we'll have to deal with it. But I certainly don't see 2025 being a worse scenario for us than 2024 in terms of just the total number.

是的。因此，我們再次使用（聽不清楚）數字，主要是因為我認為他在交付速度方面做得更好，更詳細。在今年 Camden 的 20 個項目組合中，Witten 預計將完成約 23 萬個項目。現在，如果您詳細了解這種情況是如何發生的，那麼這一速度可能會略有放緩，因為 Witten 到 2025 年的交付量約為 200,000 輛。因此，24 年至 25 年間，整體年減了約 3 萬人。 但關於 2025 年將發生的交付問題，我認為前端加載是沒有任何問題的，因為如果你回頭看看（聽不清）數據，就會發現數據大幅下降如果你對它進行18 個月後的逆向工程。所以我的猜測是，到 2025 年，這將是相當嚴重的前端負載。但就總數而言，我當然不認為 2025 年的情況比 2024 年更糟。

And so far, because of all the factors Ric mentioned, our absorption rates have been really strong. And if you look at what's projected under the sort of the status quo scenario for employment growth and then continued in migration to the Sunbelt, 2025 looks if all things are equal and no hard landing, 2025 looks like another really good year for absorption of apartments. So front-end loaded supply, continued really good demand in 2025 sounds to me like a pretty constructive environment.

到目前為止，由於里克提到的所有因素，我們的吸收率非常高。如果你看看在就業成長現狀情境下的預測，然後繼續向陽光地帶遷移，那麼2025 年看起來，如果一切都一樣並且沒有硬著陸，2025 年看起來又是吸納公寓的又一個非常好的一年。因此，前端加載的供應以及 2025 年持續良好的需求對我來說聽起來像是一個非常有建設性的環境。

Next question comes from (inaudible) with Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德（聽不清楚）。

Looking at your initial (inaudible) from last call. Have any of the expectations changed amongst the markets and which ones are maybe better or worse versus your initial thoughts?

查看上次通話中的初始通話（聽不清楚）。市場的預期是否發生了變化？

Yes, I don't. I always look at that prior to the call, and there's nothing that jumped out at me. If I were rating the portfolio again today, I can't tell you that I would have changed any of the letter grades. I suppose maybe I would have been a little bit harsher on Austin and Nashville than I was a quarter ago because we -- those are the 2 worst-performing markets in terms of new lease rates. But we have 2 assets in Nashville and then we have our Austin exposure. Those are the only 2 that kind of jump at me and say, probably should -- probably a little worse than I thought it was going to be just a quarter out. But the rest of them would be in the same.

是的，我不知道。我總是在打電話之前看一下，沒有什麼讓我驚訝的。如果我今天再次對投資組合進行評級，我不能告訴你我會改變任何字母等級。我想也許我對奧斯汀和納許維爾的態度會比一個季度前更加嚴厲，因為就新租賃率而言，這兩個市場是表現最差的兩個市場。但我們在納許維爾擁有 2 項資產，然後我們在奧斯汀擁有資產。這是唯一兩個對我跳來跳去說，可能應該——可能比我想像的要差一點。但其餘的人都會是一樣的。

Next question comes from (inaudible) with Green Street.

下一個問題來自（聽不清楚）格林街。

Just wondering, do you expect to enter any new markets or exit any existing markets over the next few years?

只是想知道，您預計在未來幾年內進入任何新市場或退出任何現有市場嗎？

We clearly will -- we do -- we would like to expand some of the markets like Keith pointed out, we have 2 properties in Nashville. We definitely need to have more exposure there. And we've talked over a long period of time about lowering our exposure in Houston and lowering our exposure in D.C. and increasing our exposure in some of the other markets where we have 3% or 4% of our NOI in, and we will continue to monitor and manage our portfolio over the next few years in that regard.

我們顯然會——我們確實會——我們希望擴大一些市場，就像基思指出的那樣，我們在納許維爾擁有兩處房產。我們絕對需要在那裡有更多的曝光。我們已經討論了很長一段時間，關於降低我們在休士頓和華盛頓特區的風險敞口，並增加我們在其他一些市場的風險敞口，在這些市場中，我們的NOI 佔3% 或4%，我們將繼續未來幾年在這方面監控和管理我們的投資組合。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference -- it looks like we have a follow-up today from Austin Wurschmidt from KeyBanc.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想改變會議的方向——看來我們今天有來自 KeyBanc 的 Austin Wurschmidt 的後續發言。

Just on the new lease rate growth assumption now, the minus 1%. I guess what periods historically have you seen that improve sort of in the back half of the year when you typically see seasonality take hold? Is it a something to do with comps or getting the long-term delinquent units back that gives you the confidence that you can kind of drive new lease rate growth in a period usually has a little bit less traffic and less demand?

現在就新的租賃率成長假設而言，負1%。我猜想您在歷史上看到哪些時期在下半年通常會出現季節性變化，從而有所改善？這是否與補償或收回長期拖欠單位有關，讓您有信心在流量和需求通常較少的時期推動新的租賃率成長？

Yes, absolutely. So first of all, the third quarter is a high demand quarter for us in our markets. So that's one point. The second thing that I will tell you is that with all the pricing initiatives that we ran through the first quarter that was -- that gave us the ability to have stronger pricing as we hit peak leasing. And so that's why we think that's going to be very sort of helpful for us as we move throughout the rest of the year.

是的，一點沒錯。首先，第三季對我們的市場來說是一個高需求季。這是一點。我要告訴你的第二件事是，透過我們在第一季實施的所有定價舉措，這使我們能夠在達到租賃高峰時獲得更強勁的定價。這就是為什麼我們認為這對我們在今年剩餘時間的行動非常有幫助。

And then the fourth thing is, is exactly right, is the comp become much easier as we go through the rest of the year.

第四件事是，完全正確，隨著我們度過今年剩下的時間，比賽會變得更加容易。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ric Campo for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給里克·坎波 (Ric Campo) 發表閉幕詞。

Well, we appreciate your time today, and we did get it done under one hour, which is a record, even though we are the last but not the least in terms of reporting. So we'll look forward to seeing you in NAREIT, and thank you for being on the call. Thanks. Bye.

好吧，我們感謝您今天的時間，我們確實在一小時內完成了它，這是一個記錄，儘管我們是最後一個但並非最不重要的報告。因此，我們期待在 NAREIT 見到您，並感謝您接聽電話。謝謝。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。