Camden Property Trust (CPT) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call, and Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. And joining me today are Ric Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman; and Alex Jessett, President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加卡姆登地產信託 2024 年第二季財報電話會議，歡迎投資人關係資深副總裁 Kim Callahan。今天加入我的還有卡姆登董事長兼執行長 Rick Campo；基斯‧奧登，執行副主席；以及總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。

Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com and a replay will be available this afternoon. We will have a slide presentation in conjunction with our prepared remarks, and those slides will also be available on our website later today or by e-mail upon request.

今天的活動將透過我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分進行網路直播，今天下午將進行重播。我們將結合準備好的發言進行幻燈片演示，這些幻燈片也將在今天晚些時候在我們的網站上提供，或根據要求透過電子郵件提供。

(Event Instructions) And please note this event is being recorded.

（活動說明）請注意此活動正在記錄中。

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想建議大家，我們將根據我們當前的期望和信念做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述並不是對未來績效的保證，並且涉及可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC, and we encourage you to review them. Any forward-looking statements made on today's call represent management's current opinions, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events.

有關這些風險的更多資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到，我們鼓勵您查看它們。今天電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表管理層目前的意見，本公司不承擔因後續事件而更新或補充這些陳述的義務。

As a reminder, Camden's complete second quarter 2024 earnings release is available in the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and it includes reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures which will be discussed on this call. We would like to respect everyone's time and complete our call within one hour, so please limit your initial question to one, then rejoin the queue if you have additional items to discuss.

提醒一下，卡姆登完整的 2024 年第二季度收益發布可在我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分查看，其中包括對非 GAAP 財務指標的調節，這些將在本次電話會議上討論。我們希望尊重每個人的時間並在一小時內完成我們的通話，因此請將您的第一個問題限制為一個，然後如果您還有其他問題要討論，請重新加入隊列。

If we are unable to speak with everyone in the queue today, we'd be happy to respond to additional questions by phone or e-mail after the call concludes.

如果我們今天無法與隊列中的每個人交談，我們很樂意在通話結束後透過電話或電子郵件回答其他問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Ric Campo.

此時，我會將電話轉給 Ric Campo。

Thanks Kim. The theme of on-hold music today is waiting. During our meetings with multifamily stakeholders in recent months, the consensus view seems to be that everyone in multi-family is waiting for something. Operations teams are waiting for the pace of multifamily completions to reach a peak and begin to come down and for bad debts to return to pre-pandemic levels.

謝謝金。今天的主題音樂是等待。在近幾個月與多戶家庭利害關係人舉行的會議中，共識似乎是多戶家庭中的每個人都在等待某些事情。營運團隊正在等待多戶住宅竣工速度達到高峰並開始下降，以及壞帳恢復到疫情前的水平。

CFOs are waiting for the long anticipated first interest rate cut by the Fed as well as rate relief and property insurance and property tax expenses. Transaction teams are waiting for the standoff between buyers and sellers to end. Sellers are waiting for buyers to throw in the towel and start buying. While buyers are waiting for the towers to go on sale. While we are certain that the waiting will and eventually the timing is the debate. In the meantime, as the late great Tom Petty reminds us, the waiting is the hardest part.

財務長們正在等待期待已久的聯準會首次降息以及利率減免以及財產保險和財產稅支出。交易團隊正在等待買家和賣家之間的僵局結束。賣家正在等待買家認輸並開始購買。而買家則在等待塔樓上市。雖然我們確信等待的時間和最終的時間是爭論的焦點。同時，正如已故偉大的湯姆佩蒂提醒我們的那樣，等待是最艱難的部分。

With the second quarter behind us, I'm going to reprise most of my comments from last quarter since the markets are playing out as we have expected. We spent most of our time talking about supply in our markets. Yes, we are at a 30-year high for apartment deliveries. And yes, this is limiting rent growth in most of our markets now.

隨著第二季的過去，我將重申上季的大部分評論，因為市場正在按照我們的預期發展。我們大部分時間都在討論市場的供應。是的，我們的公寓交付量正處於 30 年來的最高水準。是的，這限制了我們現在大多數市場的租金成長。

The good news is that our markets are adjusting quickly to the post pandemic low-interest rate development frenzy. Starts are still projected to fall to just over 200,000 apartments in 2025. New deliveries should peak in 2024, 0.21% in 2025 and another 54% in 2026, which would be a 13-year supply low point. Apartment demand continues to be strong.

好消息是，我們的市場正迅速適應疫情後的低利率發展狂潮。預計 2025 年公寓開工量仍將降至略高於 20 萬套。新交付量預計將在 2024 年達到峰值，2025 年將成長 0.21%，2026 年將再成長 54%，這將是 13 年來的供應低點。公寓需求持續強勁。

During the first half of the year, net apartment demand was over 200,000 apartments, matching 2018 and 2019. Win Advisors projects 2024 apartment demand to be in the 400,000 range. The main driver of apartment demand is household formation, driven by population and employment growth, apartment affordability and positive demographic trends.

今年上半年，公寓淨需求超過 20 萬套，與 2018 年和 2019 年持平。Win Advisors 預計 2024 年公寓需求量將在 40 萬套左右。公寓需求的主要驅動力是家庭形成，受人口和就業成長、公寓負擔能力和積極的人口趨勢的推動。

The most recent 2022, 2023 census data reported that the top 10 cities increase their population by 710,000, nine Camden markets are in the top 10. The bottom 10 cities reported a loss of 200,000 people. These were major cities on the West and East Coast, where Cameron has limited exposure.

最新的2022年、2023年人口普查數據顯示，前10名城市的人口增加了71萬，其中卡姆登市場有9個進入前10名。排名墊底的 10 個城市報告減少了 20 萬人。這些是東西海岸的主要城市，卡梅倫在這些城市的曝光度有限。

Employment growth has been robust in all of our markets, except Los Angeles, which continues to struggle. 10 of our markets have had job growth greater than 10% compared to the pre-pandemic levels. Apartment affordability continues to improve as resident wage growth has been over 5%. While rents have been relatively flat.

我們所有市場的就業成長都十分強勁，但洛杉磯除外，該市仍在苦苦掙扎。與大流行前的水平相比，我們有 10 個市場的就業成長超過 10%。隨著居民薪資成長超過 5%，公寓負擔能力持續改善。雖然租金一直相對持平。

Consumers are spending less of their take-home pay for apartments. New Camden residents paying 19% of their income towards rents. Mortgage rates and rising home prices have kept move-outs to buy homes near historic lows. 10.3% of Camden residents moved out to buy a home in the second quarter. The monthly cost of owning their home today is about 60% more than leasing apartment. This is not going to change anytime soon.

消費者購買公寓的實得工資正在減少。卡姆登的新居民將收入的 19% 用於支付租金。抵押貸款利率和不斷上漲的房價使得人們搬出購房的人數接近歷史低點。第二季度，10.3%的卡姆登居民搬出去買房。如今，擁有自己的房屋的每月費用比租賃公寓高出約 60%。這不會很快改變。

Demographic trends continue to be a tailwind, supporting demand for high propensity to rent groups, including young adults aged 35 and under. Apartments should take a larger share of household formations given these demand drivers. 2024 demand should be sufficient despite supply concerns to serve accelerating rent growth in 2025 and 2026, assuming that the overall economy continues the current trajectory.

人口趨勢持續發揮推動作用，支持高租屋傾向族群的需求，包括 35 歲及以下的年輕人。考慮到這些需求驅動因素，公寓應該在家庭結構中佔據更大的份額。假設整體經濟繼續當前的發展軌跡，儘管存在供應擔憂，但 2024 年的需求應該充足，可以滿足 2025 年和 2026 年租金加速成長的需求。

To take advantage of what we believe will be a robust multifamily leasing environment beginning in 2025 and beyond. We are starting construction on Camden South Charlotte and Camden Blakely 769 suburban apartment homes located in the Valentine's submarket of Charlotte, North Carolina. I want to give a big shout out to our Camden team members for their hard work and their commitment to reviving living excellence to our residents, which they never wait to do.

充分利用我們認為從 2025 年及以後開始強勁的多戶型租賃環境。我們正在開始建造位於北卡羅來納州夏洛特市情人節子市場的 Camden South Charlotte 和 Camden Blakely 769 郊區公寓住宅。我要大力讚揚我們的卡姆登團隊成員的辛勤工作以及他們對恢復居民卓越生活的承諾，他們從不等待這樣做。

Keith Odin is up next. Thanks.

基思·奧丁是下一個。謝謝。

Thanks, Ric. Operating conditions across our portfolio are generally playing out as we expected. Our second quarter 2024 same-property performance exceeded our forecast, primarily due to continued lower insurance costs and property taxes, which we discussed a bit on last quarter's call.

謝謝，里克。我們投資組合的營運狀況大致符合我們的預期。我們 2024 年第二季的相同財產表現超出了我們的預測，這主要是由於保險成本和財產稅的持續下降，我們在上個季度的電話會議上對此進行了一些討論。

Our top markets for same-property revenue growth were San Diego, Inland Empire, Washington, DC Metro, LA Orange County, Southeast Florida, Houston and Denver, all posting revenue growth above our portfolio average of 1.4% and ranging from 1.7% to 6.1% for the quarter.

我們的同物業收入成長最大的市場是聖地牙哥、內陸帝國、華盛頓特區都會區、洛杉磯橘郡、佛羅裡達州東南部、休士頓和丹佛，這些市場的收入成長均高於我們投資組合1.4% 的平均水平，增幅從1.7% 到6.1% 不等。

Austin and Nashville remain our most challenged markets with revenue declines of approximately 2% and 4%, respectively for the quarter. Rental rates for the second quarter showed sign leases down 1.8% and renewals up 3.7% for a blended rate of positive eight tenths of a percent with an average occupancy of 95.3%.

奧斯汀和納許維爾仍然是我們面臨最大挑戰的市場，本季營收分別下降約 2% 和 4%。第二季的租金率顯示，招牌租賃量下降了 1.8%，續租量增加了 3.7%，綜合租金率為正十分之八，平均入住率為 95.3%。

Preliminary results for July indicate slightly better levels of rate growth, with occupancy averaging 95.6%. Renewal offers for August and September were sent out with an average increase of 4.6%. And finally, turnover rates across our portfolio remained very low, driven by fewer residents moving out to buy homes. Net turnover for the second quarter of '24 was 42% compared to 45% in the second quarter of 2023.

7 月的初步結果顯示，成長率略有提高，平均入住率為 95.6%。8月和9月的續約報價平均漲幅為4.6%。最後，由於搬出去買房的居民減少，我們投資組合的周轉率仍然非常低。2024 年第二季的淨營業額為 42%，而 2023 年第二季為 45%。

I'll now turn the call over to Alex Jessett, Camden's President and Chief Financial Officer.

我現在將電話轉給卡姆登總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。

Thanks, Keith. Before I move on to our financial results and guidance, a brief update on our recent real estate activity. During the second quarter of 2024, we completed construction on Camden Woodmill Creek, in a 189-unit, $71 million single-family rental community located in The Woodlands, Texas, and we began construction on Camden South Charlotte, a 420-unit, $163 million four-story garden-style new development. In Camden Blakeney, a 349-unit, $154 million three-story garden style new development, both located in the Valentine submarket of Charlotte.

謝謝，基斯。在介紹我們的財務表現和指導之前，先簡單介紹一下我們最近的房地產活動。2024 年第二季度，我們完成了位於德克薩斯州伍德蘭茲的Camden Woodmill Creek 的建設，這是一個擁有189 個單元、價值7100 萬美元的單戶租賃社區，並且我們開始了Camden South Charlotte的建設，這是一個擁有420 個單元、價值163 美元的單戶租賃社區。卡姆登布萊克尼 (Camden Blakeney) 是一座擁有 349 個單元、耗資 1.54 億美元的三層花園風格新開發項目，均位於夏洛特的瓦倫丁子市場。

Turning to our financial results. For the second quarter, we reported core FFO of $1.71 per share, $0.04 ahead of the midpoint of our prior quarterly guidance. This outperformance was driven in large part by $0.02 per share and lower than anticipated operating expenses resulting from lower core insurance expense and lower property taxes.

轉向我們的財務表現。對於第二季度，我們報告的核心 FFO 為每股 1.71 美元，比我們先前季度指引的中點高出 0.04 美元。這一優異表現在很大程度上是由於每股 0.02 美元以及核心保險費用下降和財產稅下降導致的營運費用低於預期。

Approximately half of this expense outperformance was timing related as property tax refunds we expected in the third quarter were actually received in the second quarter. Additionally, during the second quarter, we had $0.02 per share in higher fee and asset management and interest and other income driven by the combination of cost savings and additional fee income from our third-party construction business and higher interest income from our cash balances.

大約一半的費用表現與時間有關，因為我們預計第三季的財產稅退稅實際上將在第二季收到。此外，在第二季度，我們的費用和資產管理以及利息和其他收入增加了每股0.02 美元，這是由於我們的第三方建築業務的成本節約和額外費用收入以及我們的現金餘額增加的利息收入共同推動的。

Property revenues for the quarter, including bad debt expense were in line with our expectations. Last night, we maintained the midpoint of our full year revenue guidance at 1.5%. We also lowered our full year expense guidance from 3.25% to 2.85%, driven primarily by the assumption of continued lower than anticipated insurance and property taxes.

本季的房地產收入（包括壞帳費用）符合我們的預期。昨晚，我們將全年收入指引的中點維持在 1.5%。我們還將全年費用指導從 3.25% 下調至 2.85%，主要是由於保險稅和財產稅持續低於預期的假設。

Insurance represents 7.5% of our operating expenses and was previously anticipated to be flat year over year. We now anticipate it to be down approximately 3% or $0.01 per share favorable to our prior guidance, with the entire amount of the savings occurring in the second quarter. Although we hope the second quarter trend of lower core insurance claims continues, we are not assuming it will in our forecast.

保險費用占我們營運費用的 7.5%，此前預計與去年同期持平。我們現在預計將下降約 3% 或每股 0.01 美元，這有利於我們先前的指導，全部節省金額將在第二季度實現。儘管我們希望第二季核心保險理賠下降的趨勢能持續下去，但我們的預測並不認為這種情況會發生。

Property taxes, which represent approximately 36% of our total operating expenses were previously projected to increase 1.5% year over year. Based on lower taxes property assessments and higher refunds, we are now anticipating that property taxes will be up approximately 1%, a favorability of approximately $0.01 per share.

占我們總營運費用約 36% 的財產稅此前預計將年增 1.5%。基於較低的財產評估稅和較高的退款，我們現在預計財產稅將上漲約 1%，每股優惠約為 0.01 美元。

After taking into effect the decreases in expenses, we have increased the midpoint of our 2024 same-store NOI growth guidance from 50 basis points to 75 basis points. We are also increasing the midpoint of our full year core FFO from $6.74 to $6.79, a $0.05 per share increase. $0.02 is from the increase to our same-store NOI, of which $0.01 was non timing related in the second quarter from lower core insurance costs and $0.01 is spread throughout the latter part of the year from anticipated lower taxes.

考慮到費用減少後，我們將 2024 年同店 NOI 成長指引的中點從 50 個基點提高到 75 個基點。我們還將全年核心 FFO 的中點從 6.74 美元提高到 6.79 美元，每股增加 0.05 美元。 0.02 美元來自同店 NOI 的增加，其中 0.01 美元與第二季度的核心保險成本降低無關，0.01 美元來自預期的較低稅收，導致今年下半年。

$0.02 is from the higher fee and asset management and interest and other income in second quarter, which is not anticipated to be repeated. And $0.01 is from lower anticipated property taxes on our development and non same-store communities. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we are still assuming $250 million of acquisitions, offset by an additional $250 million of dispositions with no net accretion or dilution from these matching transactions.

0.02 美元來自第二季度較高的費用和資產管理以及利息和其他收入，預計不會重複。0.01 美元來自我們的開發項目和非同店社區預期較低的財產稅。在我們指導範圍的中點，我們仍假設進行 2.5 億美元的收購，並被額外的 2.5 億美元的處置所抵消，這些匹配交易不會帶來淨增值或稀釋。

Our development starts for the year totaled $317 million, in line with the top end of our initial full year guidance. And we are not anticipating any further 2024 starts. We have approximately $55 million of remaining 2024 development spend. We also provided earnings guidance for the third quarter of 2024.

我們今年的開發啟動總額為 3.17 億美元，與我們最初的全年指引上限一致。我們預計 2024 年不會再有任何啟動。2024 年剩餘開發支出約 5,500 萬美元。我們也提供了 2024 年第三季的獲利指引。

We expect core FFO per share for the third quarter to be within the range of $1.66 to $1.70, representing a $0.03 per share sequential decline at the midpoint, primarily resulting from an approximate $0.03 sequential increase in same-store operating expenses resulting from the second quarter lower insurance expenses and the seasonality of utility and repair and maintenance expenses, partially offset by sequential reduction in property taxes due to additional property tax refunds in the third quarter.

我們預計第三季核心 FFO 每股將在 1.66 美元至 1.70 美元之間，中點每股環比下降 0.03 美元，主要是由於第二季度同店營運費用環比增加約 0.03 美元保險費用以及公用事業和維修保養費用的季節性下降，部分被第三季額外財產稅退稅導致財產稅連續減少所抵銷。

And a $0.02 decrease in fee and asset management and interest and other income due to the nonrecurring components of the second quarter outperformance. This $0.05 per share cumulative decrease in sequential core FFO per share was partially offset by a $0.01 per share increase in same store revenue as we continued through our peak leasing season and a $0.01 decline in net overhead expenses, primarily associated with the timing of certain public company and compensation cost.

由於第二季表現出色的非經常性部分，費用和資產管理以及利息和其他收入減少了 0.02 美元。核心 FFO 每股連續下降 0.05 美元，部分被租賃旺季期間同店收入每股 0.01 美元的增長以及淨管理費用下降 0.01 美元部分抵消，這主要與某些公共服務的時間安排有關。

As of today, approximately 85% of our debt is fixed rate. We have no amounts outstanding on our $1.2 billion credit facility, only $300 million of maturities over the next 24 months and less than $300 million left to fund under our existing development pipeline. Our balance sheet remains incredibly strong with net debt to EBITDA at 3.9 times.

截至今天，我們大約 85% 的債務是固定利率的。我們的 12 億美元信貸額度沒有未償還金額，未來 24 個月內只有 3 億美元到期，現有開發管道下的資金剩餘不到 3 億美元。我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁，淨債務佔 EBITDA 的比例為 3.9 倍。

At this time, we'll open the call up to questions.

此時，我們將開啟電話提問。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，現在我們開始問答環節。（操作員說明）

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Yeah, thanks. Hi everybody. It seems like July was a really strong month for you in a way that it was wasn't for your peers. Can you talk about what you would attribute that to? Did you get more aggressive just based on the demand that you were seeing? Was there some sort of comps impact or anything else that you'd like to call out?

是的，謝謝。大家好。看起來七月對你來說確實是一個非常強勁的月份，但對你的同齡人來說卻不是這樣。您能談談您將其歸因於什麼嗎？您是否僅僅根據看到的需求就變得更加積極主動？是否有某種比較影響或您想要指出的其他影響？

Yeah, July was a good month. And the only thing that we have done just from sort of at the 10,000-foot level is that we have increased our marketing support to make sure that our traffic counts remained kind of where we need them to be. So we had a little bit of additional spend in marketing but overall, if you think about where our strength in our portfolio has been really impactful for us has been Washington, DC Metro and Houston.

是的，七月是一個美好的月份。我們在 10,000 英尺的高度所做的唯一一件事就是增加了行銷支持，以確保我們的流量保持在我們需要的水平。因此，我們在行銷方面有一些額外的支出，但總的來說，如果你考慮一下我們的投資組合優勢對我們真正有影響力的地方是華盛頓特區地鐵和休士頓。

And that they are two largest markets and although in the last year or so, they've lagged the portfolio. Right now and they're leading the portfolio. So the strength in those two markets, some of which we anticipated a good year, we did certainly didn't anticipate as good a year as what we're having in DC Metro this year, and it's a nice enough to move the needle on our portfolio.

他們是兩個最大的市場，儘管在過去一年左右的時間裡，他們的投資組合已經落後了。現在他們在投資組合中處於領先地位。因此，這兩個市場的實力，其中一些市場是我們預期的好年頭，但我們確實沒有預期到像今年 DC Metro 那樣好的一年，而且這足以推動前進我們的投資組合。

The other part of the equation is that July, if you think about last year July and August, we saw seasonality earlier in the year last year, and the seasonality I think was caused by sort of consumers running out of their pandemic of money and they moved quicker, and so we had more apartments to fill in July and August.

等式的另一部分是七月，如果你想想去年的七月和八月，我們在去年早些時候看到了季節性，我認為季節性是由於消費者耗盡了他們的錢而造成的，他們搬家速度更快，因此我們在七月和八月有更多的公寓可以入住。

And if you think about sort of the setup for the third and fourth quarter of the prior year, it was probably one of the weakest that we had in a long time, and it was primarily driven by that. This year, the COVID money has been gone for a while probably and people are not just moving out because they don't have the COVID money anymore.

如果你考慮去年第三季和第四季的情況，它可能是我們很長一段時間以來最弱的情況之一，而這主要是受此驅動的。今年，新冠疫情的資金可能已經消失了一段時間，人們搬出去不僅僅是因為他們不再有新冠疫情的資金了。

So withdrawn strong job growth, even though the weak print today was expected, but continues to be really robust in our markets. And we continue to take market share from the single-family home market because the costs associated with the interest rates and home prices going up. So it just sets up for a pretty good high demand market. And I think our teams did a great job of building occupancy through the peak leasing season, it just gave us a little bit more pricing power.

因此，儘管今天的印刷數據疲軟，但強勁的就業成長已被撤回，但我們的市場仍然非常強勁。我們繼續從單戶住宅市場奪取市場份額，因為與利率和房價上漲相關的成本。因此，它只是為一個相當好的高需求市場奠定了基礎。我認為我們的團隊在租賃高峰季的入住率方面做得很好，這給了我們更多的定價能力。

Okay. I'll stick to the one question request. Thanks.

好的。我會堅持提出一個問題的要求。謝謝。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Alright. Thanks. Sure Ric, you touched on employment growth as a driver of household formation in your prepared remarks, and we've seen some slowdown in the employment reports of late -- just curious what your thoughts are on that slowdown versus the strong gains we saw last year, early this year and how that's coincided with near record absorption.

好吧。謝謝。當然，里克，您在準備好的演講中談到了就業成長作為家庭形成的驅動因素，我們看到最近就業報告出現了一些放緩——只是好奇您對這種放緩與我們上次看到的強勁成長有何看法今年，今年年初，以及這與接近創紀錄的吸收量是如何吻合的。

And just curious if we do see a continued slowdown in the employment market, how that kind of impacts, you know, the acceleration in pricing power and getting back to maybe a more historic market rent growth environment? Thanks.

只是好奇，如果我們確實看到就業市場持續放緩，這會如何影響定價能力的加速並回到可能更具歷史意義的市場租金成長環境？謝謝。

Sure. I think the slowdown is clearly a good thing and a good thing because giving about the dynamics that affect our business, high interest rates is our one part of the equation. So I think that Feds sort of sticking the landing so to speak with a maybe a Olympic comment, there seemed to be going for the gold and I'm good with a slower economy or slower job growth market.

當然。我認為經濟放緩顯然是一件好事，而且是一件好事，因為考慮到影響我們業務的動態，高利率是我們的一部分。因此，我認為聯準會有點堅持著陸，可以說是奧運評論，似乎有爭奪金牌的可能，我對經濟放緩或就業成長市場放緩感到滿意。

You saw the unemployment rate went up to 4.3, this morning. And the good news about -- from our perspective is that our markets are where the jobs are. And even when they're slowing, there's still enough job growth and slowen up in migration to continue to take market share from the household formation from single-family.

今天早上你看到失業率升至 4.3。從我們的角度來看，好消息是我們的市場就是就業機會所在。即使成長放緩，仍有足夠的就業成長和移民放緩，以繼續從單戶家庭的家庭形成中奪取市場份額。

And so with that said, the key is having reasonable job growth and not crashing the economy. Obviously, if you have -- if the Fed doesn't stick to landing and we end up with a recession in 2025. Then all bets are off on what happens then, we think what's going to happen is Feds going to stick to landing. You're going to have a moderate employment growth, and that employment growth is going to be in the markets where employment growth happens the best, which is in our markets.

話雖如此，關鍵是實現合理的就業成長而不是經濟崩潰。顯然，如果聯準會不堅持著陸，我們最終會在 2025 年陷入衰退。然後所有的賭注都取決於接下來會發生什麼，我們認為將發生的事情是聯準會將堅持著陸。就業成長將會適度，而就業成長將出現在就業成長最好的市場，也就是我們的市場。

So I feel pretty good about where we are. And I like the idea that the slower employment growth gives the Feds some headroom to be able to start cutting rates, which would be really good for our long-term business.

所以我對我們現在的處境感覺很好。我喜歡這樣的想法，就業成長放緩為聯準會提供了一些空間來開始降息，這對我們的長期業務確實有好處。

Understood. Let's hope they take on gold. Thanks for your time.

明白了。希望他們能奪得金牌。感謝您抽出時間。

For sure.

一定。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

Great. Thanks for taking the question. So your comment about not starting any more new developments for the rest of the year? Can you just talk more about that? I mean, it seems like there's going to be a really good window in '26, '27 to be delivering. So how are you thinking about -- talk more about that comment? And then maybe as we think head to '25, you think could be a little bigger development here? Thank you.

偉大的。感謝您提出問題。那麼您對今年剩餘時間不再啟動任何新開發項目的評論是？能多談談嗎？我的意思是，看起來 26、27 年將有一個非常好的窗口期來交付。那麼你如何看待——更多地談論這個評論？然後也許當我們想到 25 世紀時，你認為這裡可能會有更大的發展嗎？謝謝。

Sure. It's our development starts -- We were prepared. These are really shovel readies and we have delayed them. And so we went ahead and started the two in Charlotte that we announced. And we have a decent pipeline that we can start -- it's just hard to get positioned and to start those other properties that we have between now and the end of the year and they'll likely be 2025 starts.

當然。這是我們發展的開始——我們已經準備好了。這些確實已經準備就緒，但我們已經推遲了。因此，我們繼續在夏洛特啟動了我們宣布的兩個項目。我們有一個不錯的管道可以啟動——只是很難定位並啟動我們擁有的其他項目，從現在到今年年底，它們可能會在 2025 年啟動。

And I also think we'll be able to expand the pipeline by helping other developers out who can't get financing who have shovel-ready land deals that they're willing to part with. If you look at our history in cycles like this, we've always been able to ramp up our development pipeline, even though the 2026, 2027 looks pretty amazing from an apartment perspective, you still -- private developers still can't get capital.

我還認為，我們將能夠透過幫助其他無法獲得融資、願意放棄土地交易的開發商來擴大管道。如果你以這樣的周期回顧我們的歷史，我們總是能夠增加我們的開發管道，儘管從公寓的角度來看，2026 年、2027 年看起來相當驚人，但私人開發商仍然無法獲得資金。

I mean, we were chatting with the largest provider of debt and equity capital to the multifamily industry and their business for new development, equity and Debt is down 85% this year, and it's not moving up. At the same time, the same group said that their interest in acquisitions or in sellers out there who are merchant builders who really need to recapitalize their DOBs and listings are up 60% year over year and it looks like it will be a pretty robust transaction market coming up in the fall and early next year. So when the sort of clouds clear a little bit more, we will be more active in development for sure.

我的意思是，我們正在與多戶住宅行業最大的債務和股權資本提供者交談，他們的新開發、股權和債務業務今年下降了 85%，而且沒有上升。與此同時，該集團表示，他們對收購或真正需要對其 DOB 和上市進行資本重組的商業建築商的賣家的興趣同比增長了 60%，看起來這將是一筆相當強勁的交易市場將於秋季和明年初上市。因此，當這種陰雲散去一點時，我們肯定會更積極地進行開發。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰金 (John Kim)，BMO 資本市場。

Thanks, and good morning. I wanted to ask about your views on blended lease growth in the second half of the year. Keith, I know you mentioned that you're sending out renewals at 4.6%. If you could just remind us where you think you typically would find those at? And also for the new leases, where you think the lease rates go?

謝謝，早安。我想問您對下半年混合租賃成長的看法。Keith，我知道您提到您會以 4.6% 的價格發送續約。您能否提醒我們您通常會在哪裡找到這些內容？對於新的租賃，您認為租賃費率會怎樣？

Yes, our renewals are generally within 50 basis points of the average of what we send out. So the [4.6%] probably turns into something little just above [4%]

是的，我們的續約通常與我們發出的平均值相差 50 個基點以內。所以 [4.6%] 可能會變成略高於[4%]

Alex, on the new lease numbers.

亞歷克斯，關於新的租約號碼。

Absolutely. Yeah John, for the third quarter, we're assuming a blended about 1.6% in the fourth quarter, blended about 1.3%. And by the way, that's exactly what we thought last quarter as well.

絕對地。是的，約翰，對於第三季度，我們假設第四季度的混合率約為 1.6%，混合率約為 1.3%。順便說一句，這也正是我們上個季度的想法。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Connor Mitchell, Piper Sandler.

康納米切爾，派珀桑德勒。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You guys saw a pretty nice improvement of bad debt in the second quarter year over year. Just wondering if you could provide some insight to how this might be trending in July and what you guys are thinking about for the rest of the year and then maybe what markets are causing the improvements? And if you're seeing anything on the other side with any slipping in bad debt in certain markets?

嘿，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。你們看到第二季壞帳年比有了相當大的改善。只是想知道您是否可以提供一些關於 7 月份趨勢的見解以及您在今年剩餘時間裡的想法，然後也許是哪些市場導致了這種改善？如果您發現某些市場的壞帳下滑？

Yeah, absolutely. So bad debt is really getting under control now. What we had in the second quarter was about 80 basis points. We just closed out July, so it's a little bit early for us to have our July numbers, but we think that they're going to be in line with our expectations for the rest of the year, which is right at 75 basis points.

是的，絕對是。所以壞帳現在確實得到了控制。我們第二季的利率約為 80 個基點。我們剛結束了 7 月份，所以現在公佈 7 月份的數據還為時過早，但我們認為它們將符合我們對今年剩餘時間的預期，即 75 個基點。

And where we're seeing the biggest improvements is where we needed to see them. So for instance, California in the second quarter was 2.1% bad debt in the first quarter of 2.6% bad debt. So that market was obviously, one that we're focused on quite a bit as was Atlanta, which in the first quarter was 1.8%, it is now 1.4%.

我們看到最大改進的地方正是我們需要看到它們的地方。例如，加州第二季的壞帳率為 2.1%，第一季的壞帳率為 2.6%。因此，這個市場顯然是我們非常關注的市場，就像亞特蘭大一樣，第一季為 1.8%，現在為 1.4%。

So the markets that were being a little bit problematic for us are starting to get under control. And we do think that we're getting pretty close to getting back to a normal level, which for us is about 50 basis points.

因此，對我們來說有點問題的市場開始受到控制。我們確實認為我們已經非常接近回到正常水平，對我們來說大約是 50 個基點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joshua Dennerlein, BoA.

約書亞·登納林，BoA。

This is Steven on for Josh. So my question is on the turnover. So if I look at the number correctly, it looks like there's a little bit pickup from 2Q to July. So I wonder if you have any color on that, on the turnover?

這是史蒂文為喬許代言的。所以我的問題是營業額。因此，如果我正確地看待這個數字，從第二季到七月似乎有點回升。所以我想知道你對營業額有什麼看法嗎？

So we'll always see an increase in turnover in the third quarter. So that's very typical. I think the thing that I'd be focusing on more is that our July 2023 turnover number was 53%. And our July 2024 turnover number is 47%. That's a 600 basis points improvement year-over-year. So although we typically do see higher turnover in the third quarter, it's trending a lot better than typical right now.

因此，我們總是會看到第三季營業額的增加。所以這是非常典型的。我認為我更關注的是 2023 年 7 月的營業額為 53%。我們 2024 年 7 月的營業額為 47%。這比去年同期提高了 600 個基點。因此，儘管我們通常會看到第三季的營業額較高，但其趨勢比目前的典型情況要好得多。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Rob Stevenson, Janney.

羅布史蒂文森，珍妮。

Good morning, guys. What's the current expected stabilized yield on the development pipeline? And what have you been seeing in terms of material labor costs as you start those 2 Charlotte projects?

早安，夥計們。目前開發管線的預期穩定收益率是多少？當您啟動這兩個夏洛特計畫時，您在材料勞動成本方面看到了什麼？

Sure. So the Charlotte projects are in the 6 going in yields with IRRs in the eights and the development pipeline, our general development pipeline, if you work at the last couple of years have been suburban deals in the 6%, maybe and actually the things are like in the 7% range. And then the more urban deals in the mid-5s to high 5s.

當然。因此，夏洛特項目的收益率為6%，IRR 為8%，而開發管道，我們的整體開發管道，如果您在過去幾年中工作，郊區交易的收益率為6%，也許而且實際上情況是例如7%的範圍內。然後更多的城市交易在 5 左右至 5 左右左右。

And in terms of costs, costs are coming down in some areas but very, very slowly. Lumber costs have come down, for example. But the good news is we're not having 1% a month inflation like we were 1.5 years ago. But I don't think that we've seen much cost compression it will be really interesting to see as starts fall, and we will peak in construction this year.

就成本而言，某些領域的成本正在下降，但速度非常非常緩慢。例如，木材成本已經下降。但好消息是，我們的通膨率不再像 1.5 年前那樣每月 1%。但我認為我們並沒有看到太多的成本壓縮，隨著開工率的下降，看到這一點真的很有趣，而且我們今年的建設將達到頂峰。

And next year falls substantially in the year after that. And generally, when you see construction starts fall like that, what happens is that the subcontractor margins compress. And if you go back to the financial crisis, people were (inaudible) drop dramatically because people were just working for food at time. There was no margin.

明年則大幅下降。一般來說，當你看到開工率下降時，就會發生分包商利潤壓縮的情況。如果你回到金融危機時期，人們（聽不清楚）急劇下降，因為人們當時只是為了食物而工作。沒有餘地。

I don't know that that's going to happen this time because there is a lot of other development going on. And when you think about commodity prices, those are driven by the global market, not just multifamily, and so with the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the the government spend that's going on in infrastructure, concrete and steel some of those other products likely aren't going to come down.

我不知道這次會發生這種情況，因為還有很多其他的開發工作正在進行中。當你想到大宗商品價格時，這些價格是由全球市場驅動的，而不僅僅是多戶住宅，因此，隨著兩黨基礎設施法案和政府在基礎設施、混凝土和鋼鐵方面的支出，其他一些產品可能不會受到影響。

So as the labor market tightens, I think it will see labor prices come down and margins come down and how much that is, it's hard to say today. It's not going to crater the way it did during the financial crisis because that was a whole different animal compared to what we have today. And if the Fed does hit the landing, it will be a decent economy still for builders and labor.

因此，隨著勞動市場收緊，我認為勞動價格會下降，利潤率會下降，具體下降多少，今天很難說。它不會像金融危機期間那樣陷入困境，因為與我們今天的情況相比，那是一種完全不同的動物。如果聯準會確實著陸，對於建築商和勞動力來說，這仍然是一個不錯的經濟。

What about land costs? Are you starting to see any relief there in terms of being able to buy at a cheaper rate or any of these office sites that are going to get bulldozed and converted?

土地成本呢？您是否開始看到任何緩解，因為能夠以更便宜的價格購買或任何這些將被推土機和改造的辦公室？

Land is an interesting thing because it doesn't move as fast as you would think because sellers -- just like the sellers of existing multifamily are unwilling to drop their prices land people tend to be the same. What I think where the opportunity can be, and we've generally seen this in past cycles is that you have developers who own land who have been positioning to to start the development and they can't start the development because the debt and equity markets won't allow it today.

土地是一件有趣的事情，因為它的流動速度沒有你想像的那麼快，因為賣家——就像現有多戶住宅的賣家不願意降低土地價格一樣——人們往往是一樣的。我認為機會就在哪裡，我們在過去的周期中通常看到的是，擁有土地的開發商一直準備開始開發，但他們無法開始開發，因為債務和股票市場今天不會允許。

And so they end up taking they write off their sort of soft costs and then they sell the land for what it was worth beginning perhaps and that's generally where the opportunity is. But I think sellers are definitely understanding that the market is different today because of the cost of capital rise and construction costs not coming down. So land prices tend to be stickier than you would think. But I do think there will be opportunities and make these deals both on the land side and the buying from developers that can't get their deals financed.

因此，他們最終會沖銷軟成本，然後以可能值得開始的價格出售土地，而這通常就是機會所在。但我認為賣家肯定明白，由於資本成本上升而建築成本沒有下降，今天的市場已經不同了。因此，土地價格往往比您想像的更具黏性。但我確實認為會有機會，可以在土地方面進行這些交易，也可以從無法獲得交易融資的開發商購買。

Okay. Thanks. Guys have a great weekend.

好的。謝謝。夥計們週末愉快。

Sure.

當然。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

Thanks. Good morning. Ric, I guess I just wanted to get a little bit more color around the 2 development starts. What kind of yields are you penciling? I assume, on un-trended rents, and then to the extent that you do trend or you look out on a stabilized basis, where do you see those heading?

謝謝。早安.Ric，我想我只是想在兩次開發開始時獲得更多的色彩。你的收益是多少？我假設，在租金沒有趨勢的情況下，如果你確實有趨勢，或者你在穩定的基礎上展望，你認為這些趨勢會走向何方？

We do both. We look at un-trended yields, and then we also look at trend yields, and we are generally pretty conservative in our trended. And when we look at the un-trended yields, they're in the sort of mid- to high 5s and then when you look at trended during the 6s. I think that those are going in yields or stabilized yields, and we look mainly at IRRs.

我們兩者都做。我們關注非趨勢收益率，然後我們也關注趨勢收益率，我們通常對趨勢收益率相當保守。當我們觀察非趨勢收益率時，它們處於 5 左右的中高水平，而當你觀察趨勢收益率時，它們處於 6 左右。我認為這些都是收益率或穩定收益率，我們主要關注內部收益率。

I guess the long term, we're in this business for the long term, you want accretion as you go, but you also want long-term capital placement that has a positive spread your weighted average long-term cost of capital. Some with that said, we're in high or mid low 8s and one of them is low 8, and the other one is higher 8 from an IRR perspective. So that's the way we look at it.

我想從長遠來看，我們從事這項業務是為了長期發展，你希望不斷增加，但你也希望長期資本配置能讓你的加權平均長期資本成本產生正面的利差。有人說，從 IRR 的角度來看，我們處於高或中低 8 水平，其中一個是低 8，另一個是高 8。這就是我們看待它的方式。

But I think there is substantial upside in those yields just because of what the market looks like in 2026 and 2027. If you have a reasonable economy and no new supply coming to the market, you should get better than normal rent growth. If you look at long-term rent growth for our business, it's roughly a little over 3%.

但我認為，僅僅因為 2026 年和 2027 年的市場狀況，這些收益率就有很大的上升空間。如果你的經濟狀況合理，並且沒有新的供應進入市場，你的租金成長應該會比正常水平好。如果你看看我們業務的長期租金成長，你會發現它大約略高於 3%。

And if you -- but the site during the cycles, today, we're -- what is our revenue growth today is like 0.7 and to get to a long-term average from today, you have to have a whole lot better than 3 in those uptick market years, which would be in '26 and '27. So I think there's a fair amount of upside in this development that you start today.

如果你——但在周期期間的網站，今天，我們——今天我們的收入增長大約是 0.7，並且從今天開始達到長期平均水平，你必須有比 3 更好的水平在那些市場上漲的年份，即「26」和「27」。所以我認為你們今天開始的這項開發有相當多的好處。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Eric Wolfe, Citi

埃里克沃爾夫，花旗銀行

You mentioned where you're sending renewals out today. So I was curious based on what you're seeing with YieldStar and the other 4 indicators, do you think occupancy will stay at this high level? Because it looks like it came up in in both June and July, or would you expect it to start coming down seasonally?

您提到了今天要向何處發送續訂。所以我很好奇，根據您對 YieldStar 和其他 4 個指標的觀察，您認為入住率會保持在這麼高的水平嗎？因為看起來它在六月和七月都出現了，還是您預計它會開始季節性下降？

Yes. So we're at 95.5% now. And I think in the back half of the year, I think we're we have that basically flat. Maybe it comes down a little bit in the fourth quarter, but probably the trade-off between rate and occupancy, and it's something that our professionals that in our revenue management department deal with literally daily making adjustments to make sure that we're maximizing revenues.

是的。所以我們現在是 95.5%。我認為在今年下半年，我們的情況基本上持平。也許第四季會有所下降，但可能是費率和入住率之間的權衡，我們收入管理部門的專業人員每天都會處理這一問題，進行調整，以確保我們實現收入最大化。

But the key to being able to push rents and to have any pricing power at all is to maintain occupancy at or above 95%. So we started the year at 95.3%. We've actually ticked up a little bit during peak leasing season. Seasonality will probably cause it to drift a little bit below 95.5%. I'm pretty comfortable with our forecast between now and the end of the year with regard to our guidance.

但能夠推高租金並擁有定價權的關鍵是將入住率維持在 95% 或以上。所以我們年初的利用率為 95.3%。實際上，我們在租賃旺季期間有所增加。季節性可能會導致其略低於 95.5%。我對我們從現在到年底的指導預測非常滿意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克萊默，摩根士丹利。

Great. Just wanted to know across the portfolio today, where does kind of the loss lease or gain to lease stand? And if you can even give maybe a few of the markets, in particular, be interested to hear.

偉大的。只是想知道今天在整個投資組合中，租賃損失或租賃收益的情況如何？如果您甚至可以提供一些市場，請特別感興趣。

Yes. So right now, we are in a loss lease position. And so it's right around 1%. And obviously, that is spread across the markets, as you would imagine, they would be based upon the revenue growth that we've had year-to-date. And so think about DC or San Diego has got a much larger loss to lease, and obviously, we've got gains to leases in markets like Nashville and Austin.

是的。所以現在我們處於租賃虧損狀態。所以這個比例大約是 1%。顯然，正如您想像的那樣，這分佈在整個市場上，它們將基於我們今年迄今為止的收入成長。因此，考慮華盛頓特區或聖地牙哥的租賃損失要大得多，顯然，我們在納許維爾和奧斯汀等市場的租賃方面獲得了收益。

Great. Thank you, it.

偉大的。謝謝你，它。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

麥可‧戈德史密斯，瑞銀集團。

Hi. This is Ami Probandt. Some of the higher supply market seemed like they might be reaching a bottom and maybe Phoenix is in this category. So are you seeing any signs of this happening? Or are we potentially reaching the bottom in some of these markets?

你好。我是阿米·普羅班特。一些供應較高的市場似乎可能已經觸底，也許鳳凰城就屬於這一類。那麼您是否看到這種情況發生的任何跡象？或者我們可能會在其中一些市場觸底嗎？

Yes. So the markets that jump off the page to me still are Nashville and Austin, in terms of oversupply. And I still think we're in the middle of the I don't know whether it's the 4th inning or 5th inning of the baseball game, but I don't think we're anywhere near the end in either of those markets. It's probably going to drift over into mid-2025 just based on if you look at the forward the completions that we still kind of grind through.

是的。因此，就供應過剩而言，我跳出頁面的市場仍然是納許維爾和奧斯汀。我仍然認為我們正處於棒球比賽的中間，我不知道這是棒球比賽的第四局還是第五局，但我認為我們在這兩個市場中都還沒有接近結束。如果你看看我們仍在努力完成的未來，它可能會推遲到 2025 年中期。

The good news is, is that despite these historic levels of new supply, there's also been a pretty historic level of new absorption. City like Austin where if you kind of do the math around jobs created and net absorption the numbers don't seem to make a whole lot of sense. But when you look at it in the broader context of not just employment growth, but in domestic migration into markets like Nashville and Austin, that's been the game changer.

好消息是，儘管新供應達到歷史水平，但新吸收量也達到了相當歷史水平。像奧斯汀這樣的城市，如果你對創造的就業機會和淨吸收量進行數學計算，這些數字似乎沒有太大意義。但當你從更廣泛的背景來看，不僅是就業成長，而且是納許維爾和奧斯汀等市場的國內移民，這就是遊戲規則的改變者。

And because -- I mean, by historical standards, the amount of supply versus kind of printed job growth would bode much worse for rental rate performance in both of those markets, and it just hasn't happened. But in terms of Being at the bottom, I don't know, we're probably kicking around the bottom because we're kicking around the peak monthly deliveries in those markets.

因為——我的意思是，按照歷史標準，供應量與印刷就業成長的關係將預示著這兩個市場的租金表現會更糟，但這種情況並沒有發生。但就處於底部而言，我不知道，我們可能正在觸底，因為我們正在這些市場的每月交付高峰附近徘徊。

But clearly, we're going to continue to to fight the supply challenge into 2025. The good news is our markets have remained robust, and we're still growing jobs and people are still moving here, and we're still leasing lots of apartments.

但顯然，我們將繼續應對 2025 年的供應挑戰。好消息是我們的市場仍然強勁，我們的就業機會仍在成長，人們仍在搬到這裡，我們仍在租賃大量公寓。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Rich Anderson, Wedbush.

里奇安德森，韋德布希。

Thanks. Good morning out there. So --

謝謝。早安.所以--

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, sorry. So you bought back stock during the quarter in $96 range. Your stock is now $119 or something like that. And consensus NAV is I don't know if you believe it, $120-ish. I wonder under what scenario could you start thinking about reversing course from an equity standpoint, not that your balance sheet needs it.

好吧，抱歉。因此，您在本季以 96 美元的價格回購了股票。你的股票現在是 119 美元或類似的價格。我不知道你是否相信，共識資產淨值是 120 美元左右。我想知道在什麼情況下你會開始考慮從股權的角度扭轉方向，而不是你的資產負債表需要它。

But would you -- are you at all having sort of a thought about raising equity at some point, particularly if something of significance comes along and you get to below the capital and protect your balance set at the same time? Just curious what your thoughts are there.

但是，您是否會考慮在某個時候籌集股本，特別是當出現重大事件並且您的資金低於資本並同時保護您的資產負債表時？只是好奇你的想法是什麼。

Well, we clearly are focused on where we can make the best returns and how do we fund that. And so I will tell you just the -- of course, the stocks $119 today, but in the last, it was $110 just a little while ago and below that. And so we don't think of it that way. But I would say that the way I think about capital allocation, if we could acquire a portfolio that improves the quality of our portfolio is part of our strategic plan and it can be done on an accretive basis than using equity and our debt to fund that and keeping our balance sheet strong. Sure that would be a interesting thing to do.

嗯，我們顯然專注於在哪裡可以獲得最佳回報以及如何為其提供資金。所以我會告訴你——當然，今天的股票是 119 美元，但在最後，不久前它是 110 美元，而且還低於這個水平。所以我們不這麼想。但我想說的是，我對資本配置的看法是，如果我們能夠獲得一個能夠提高投資組合品質的投資組合，那麼這就是我們策略計畫的一部分，而且它可以在增值的基礎上完成，而不是使用股權和債務來為其提供資金。當然，這會是一件有趣的事。

We haven't found portfolios like that. I think that today, I think that the transaction market is going to be very robust over the next 18 months. And that should give us an opportunity to to play in the acquisition game significantly. And if it works out where the math works, then I'm sure you use all sources of capital leading equity.

我們還沒有找到這樣的投資組合。我認為今天交易市場在未來 18 個月內將非常強勁。這應該讓我們有機會在收購遊戲中發揮重要作用。如果它能計算出結果，那麼我確信你會使用所有資本來源的股權。

What do you think about the $120 as an NAV estimate. Any thoughts on that or the consensus number?

您如何看待 120 美元的淨值估算？對此或共識數字有什麼想法嗎？

Well, at $120, I think that's an implied cap rate at Camden of about [$65.7], and let's be the [Kutera] transaction, the CFO for KKR came out and said it was a low 4. So winter cap rates today and most of the transactions that are going off today are in the low 5s. So I think that that the public markets are slow to bring cap rates down to where the real market is today.

好吧，以120 美元計算，我認為卡姆登的隱含資本化率約為[65.7 美元]，讓我們以[Kutera] 交易為例，KKR 的首席財務官出來說，這是一個低4 的利率。因此，今天的冬季上限利率和今天進行的大部分交易都在 5 左右。因此，我認為公開市場將資本化率降低到當今實際市場水準的速度很慢。

And ultimately, maybe the public markets are right and there's going to be a flood of properties that have to come to the market between now and the end of 2025. And so there you could argue that cap rates could stay higher or go higher because of that.

最終，也許公開市場是正確的，從現在到 2025 年底，將會有大量房產進入市場。因此，你可能會認為上限利率可能會因此保持較高或更高。

But on the other hand, there's a massive wall of capital out there evidenced by Blackstone taking out Aimco and KKR acquiring a couple of billion dollars of the Kutera portfolio. So we'll see, right? The Street tends to at least Wall Street tends -- the pendulum moves one way versus the other. And if you're going to get back to the middle, if you come back to the middle of where cap rates are trading today, $120 would be low.

但另一方面，黑石集團收購了 Aimco，KKR 收購了數十億美元的庫特拉投資組合，證明了那裡存在著巨大的資本牆。那我們拭目以待吧？華爾街的趨勢至少是華爾街的趨勢——鐘擺朝一邊移動，另一邊移動。如果你要回到中間，如果你回到今天交易的上限利率的中間，120 美元將會很低。

Okay. Sounds good. Thank you.

好的。聽起來不錯。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Mason Guell, Baird.

梅森·奎爾，貝爾德。

Hey, good morning. Can you provide some insight on how you expect DC and Houston to perform in the second half of the year?

嘿，早安。您能否談談您對華盛頓特區和休士頓下半年表現的預期？

Yeah. I think DC and Houston are going to continue to be in the top. I think clearly, DC is going to end up the year either 1 or 2 in our portfolio just from where we are today, Houston continues to be really robust in terms of growth. This morning, I think I saw an announcement that Chevron was finally going to move their real live corporate headquarters from California to Houston. They've been saying they weren't going to do it for 15 years and yet their Chairman and Vice Chairman are expected to actually moved to Houston by the end of this year.

是的。我認為華盛頓特區和休士頓將繼續名列前茅。我清楚地認為，從我們今天的情況來看，華盛頓特區今年將在我們的投資組合中排名第一或第二，休士頓在成長方面仍然非常強勁。今天早上，我想我看到了一則公告，雪佛龍終於要把他們真正的公司總部從加州搬到休士頓。15 年來他們一直表示不會這樣做，但他們的董事長和副主席預計將在今年年底真正搬到休士頓。

So I think that's 2,000 jobs that probably is not a huge thing in the scheme of Houston's overall employment view, but it sends a really important message about Houston is the energy capital of the world. And it's not going away anytime soon. I think it's only going to continue to get stronger in the near term.

因此，我認為這 2,000 個工作在休士頓的整體就業計畫中可能並不是什麼大事，但它傳達了一個非常重要的訊息，即休士頓是世界能源之都。而且它不會很快消失。我認為它只會在短期內繼續變得更強。

So I'm really very constructive on Houston with what's going on here. And clearly, DC Metro having a year that is better than what we would have thought it would be. And they've got great occupancy right now and really good momentum, and our teams are doing a great job of taking advantage of the opportunity. So I think both those markets, I'm very positive on between now and the end of the year.

所以我對休士頓這裡發生的事情非常有建設性。顯然，華盛頓地鐵今年的表現比我們想像的還要好。他們現在的入住率很高，勢頭非常好，我們的團隊在利用這個機會方面做得很好。因此，我認為從現在到今年年底，我對這兩個市場都非常樂觀。

I would add to Houston that Keith mentioned the energy capital of the world, but it's also the energy transition capital of the world. If you look at the government spend on energy, I mean, there was a roughly a $2 billion hydrogen hub that was granted to Houston. And these energy companies are all investing major dollars in clean technology and into the transition.

我想補充一點，基斯提到休士頓是世界能源之都，但它也是世界能源轉型之都。如果你看看政府在能源方面的支出，我的意思是，休士頓獲得了大約 20 億美元的氫能中心。這些能源公司都在清潔技術和轉型方面投入了大量資金。

And ultimately, the thing that's really interesting about the whole debate about energy transition and global warming and going green. You have to have a transition plan that works for people. And a transition plan that includes -- it has to include oil and gas, traditional oil and gas but the oil and gas companies are the ones who understand how to change, how to get transition into hydrogen and other fuels but so I think long term, Houston is going to continue to do well as a result of both traditional energy and transition.

最後，關於能源轉型、全球暖化和綠色環保的整個辯論中真正有趣的事情。您必須制定適合人們的過渡計劃。過渡計畫必須包括石油和天然氣、傳統石油和天然氣，但石油和天然氣公司了解如何改變、如何過渡到氫和其他燃料，但我認為從長遠來看由於傳統能源和轉型，休士頓將繼續表現出色。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

David Segall, Green Street.

大衛西格爾，格林街。

Hi. Thank you. I was curious if you could talk about how comfortable you feel about the development spread on the recent Charlotte starts, considering that citing assets trading in the low 5 range and the un-treaded yields for those starts, if I heard correctly, we're below 6 un-trended basis. Thank you.

你好。謝謝。我很好奇你是否能談談你對最近夏洛特開工的開發價差有多滿意，考慮到引用的資產交易在低5 範圍內以及這些開工的未經處理的收益率，如果我沒聽錯的話，我們是低於 6 無趨勢基礎。謝謝。

Sure. So we look at it from a long-term cost of capital perspective, and we won 150 basis points spread from our long-term cost of capital for development on acquisitions. We want 50 to 75 and we can get that with development. We going in yields, if you use going in yields as your benchmark, then that always is dangerous in my opinion, because where you start is important, but where you finish is the key.

當然。因此，我們從長期資本成本的角度來看，我們透過收購獲得了150個基點的發展長期資本成本利差。我們想要 50 到 75 個，我們可以透過開發來實現。我們以收益率為基準，如果你以收益率作為基準，那麼在我看來這總是很危險的，因為你從哪裡開始很重要，但你在哪裡結束才是關鍵。

And so long term, value creation to development, and we created billions of dollars of value at Camden through our development program over the years. And this part of the cycle is that when they're when there's going to be limited competition coming in at '26 and '27, billing today, those developments will create value long term for Camden. When you look at -- if we only had $1 to invest, that would be one thing, right? But we have one of the best balance sheets in the sector.

從長遠來看，從價值創造到發展，我們多年來透過我們的發展計畫在卡姆登創造了數十億美元的價值。週期的這一部分是，當 26 和 27 年的競爭有限時（今天開始計費），這些開發將為卡姆登創造長期價值。當你看時——如果我們只有 1 美元可投資，那是一回事，對嗎？但我們擁有該行業最好的資產負債表之一。

We have unfunded line of credit if we could invest without doing any equity offerings and keeping our debt in the right level to keep our A rating, we can invest $1.3 billion. And so the $300 million development. If great acquisitions come along, we'll play in that game as well. But it's a long-term bet for a long-term business, and we think it makes sense to allocate that amount of capital to those transactions are great suburban really simple and no offense to my construction folks, but they're sick construction in the suburbs, and that's where we've made the most created the most value in our development business over a long time, a long period of time. So that's the way we think about it.

我們的信用額度沒有資金支持，如果我們能夠在不進行任何股票發行的情況下進行投資，並將債務保持在適當的水平以保持我們的 A 評級，那麼我們可以投資 13 億美元。耗資 3 億美元的開發案也是如此。如果出現重大收購，我們也會參與其中。但這是一項長期業務的長期賭注，我們認為將大量資金分配給這些交易是有意義的，這些交易是偉大的郊區，非常簡單，並且不會冒犯我的建築人員，但他們是病態的建築郊區，這是我們在很長一段時間內在開發業務中創造最多價值的地方。這就是我們的想法。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

Yes. Great. Just thinking about the expense growth this year, it's obviously come in a lot better than you guys expected. Taxes are only up 0.2%. I know the Houston or the Texas refunds and property tax changes have helped. I'm just trying to think through maybe some of the onetime benefits that you're getting this year as we think about expense growth into '25.

是的。偉大的。想想今年的費用成長，顯然比你們預期的要好得多。稅收僅上漲0.2%。我知道休士頓或德州的退款和財產稅改革有所幫助。當我們考慮到 25 年的費用成長時，我只是想思考今年您可能獲得的一些一次性好處。

Yeah. So I'll hit the items that seem to have the most variability first. So if you think about property taxes, obviously, we're having a fantastic year in 2024. My gut is, as we move on, we returned to a more normal level, which is about 3%. If you think about insurance, insurance was really a case of a pendulum that long. If you remember last year, our insurance was up 40%.

是的。因此，我將首先選擇那些看起來變化最大的項目。因此，如果你考慮一下財產稅，顯然，2024 年我們將度過美好的一年。我的直覺是，隨著我們繼續前進，我們回到了更正常的水平，大約是 3%。如果你考慮一下保險，保險實際上就是一個那麼長的鐘擺。如果您還記得去年，我們的保險上漲了 40%。

And when we started this year, we thought insurance was going to be up 18%, and now we think it's going to be down 3%. Right now, this is still a great business for the insurance providers. And every insurance provider that we spoke to when we did our last renewal was trying to find out how they can have more of this business. And the simple way that they can get more of this business is to keep the rates low.

今年年初時，我們認為保險費將上漲 18%，現在我們認為保險費將下降 3%。目前，這對保險公司來說仍然是一項很棒的業務。當我們上次續保時，我們採訪過的每家保險公司都在試圖找出他們如何獲得更多的這項業務。他們獲得更多業務的簡單方法就是保持較低的利率。

And so what I would anticipate is that Insurance follows the normal cycle, rates are low for a couple of years. And then all of a sudden, you have some accumulation of global losses that causes rates to rise and then it's a rent and repeat cycle. When I think about the rest of our line items, salaries is obviously something that is very closely tied to inflation, and we think that's going to be typical. The same thing for utilities or repair and maintenance.

因此，我預計保險業會遵循正常週期，利率會在幾年內處於較低水平。然後突然間，全球損失累積起來，導致利率上升，然後就形成了租金和重複週期。當我考慮我們的其他項目時，工資顯然與通貨膨脹密切相關，我們認為這將是典型的。對於公用事業或維修和保養也是如此。

Probably the one-line item that I think there's some variability. The good news is that it's our smallest line item is marketing. And marketing really is a function of how much we want to spend to create the traffic that we want. And as we have more supply we'll spend more on the marketing dollars. But all that being said, I think if you look at where we are today at 2.85%, when you think about the long-term average for our business, it's 3%. So I think we're in pretty good shape.

可能是單行項目，我認為存在一些可變性。好消息是我們最小的訂單項目是行銷。行銷實際上取決於我們想要花多少錢來創造我們想要的流量。隨著我們有更多的供應，我們將在行銷上花費更多的錢。但話雖這麼說，我認為如果你看看我們今天的 2.85%，當你考慮我們業務的長期平均水平時，它是 3%。所以我認為我們的狀態非常好。

Great. Thanks. That's it for me.

偉大的。謝謝。對我來說就是這樣。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

麥可‧戈德史密斯，瑞銀集團。

Hi. Another quick one from me, Ami on the line. How is the hurricane impact factored into the guide? And how should we think about that as we are modeling out the third quarter?

你好。我又發了一封快信，阿米在線。指南中如何考慮颶風影響？當我們對第三季進行建模時，我們應該如何考慮這一點？

Yes. So it's a noncore expense for us. And you'll notice that we increased our core FFO by $0.05 per share, but a noncore FFO by $0.03 per share. The delta is the $0.02 that we are anticipating for the impact of barrel. And obviously, that's a net expense line after taking into effect insurance proceeds and additional dollars that may be capitalized.

是的。所以這對我們來說是一項非核心支出。您會注意到，我們將核心 FFO 每股增加了 0.05 美元，但非核心 FFO 每股增加了 0.03 美元。Delta 是我們預計每桶價格影響的 0.02 美元。顯然，這是考慮保險收益和可能資本化的額外資金後的淨費用線。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰金 (John Kim)，BMO 資本市場。

Thanks. I wanted to follow up on the planned lease assumptions for the back half of the year. So in July, you signed blended at 90 basis points, yet you're expecting that to, I guess, accelerate or improve in the second half of the year. Is that based on easier year-over-year comps? Or are there other factors?

謝謝。我想跟進今年下半年計劃的租賃假設。因此，在 7 月份，您簽署了 90 個基點的混合協議，但我認為，您預計這種情況將在下半年加速或改善。這是基於更容易的同比比較嗎？還是有其他因素？

No, absolutely, so a component of that is easier comps, but you have to think about our effective. So our effective for July is up 1.2%. And so what I'm saying is that our effective for the third quarter is up 1.6% -- 1.2%, 1.6% is not that much of a jump.

不，絕對的，所以其中一個組成部分更容易比較，但你必須考慮我們的效率。因此，我們 7 月份的有效成長率為 1.2%。所以我想說的是，我們第三季的有效成長了 1.6%——1.2%，1.6% 並沒有那麼大的跳躍。

And then when you look at what was signed, ignore the blend because in July, we sort of had a little bit of a unusual were a larger percentage of -- with the new leases versus renewals. If you look at that renewal number, which is up 4%, that's a really good renewal number for us. And if you think about turnover that's dropping, with renewal numbers staying that high, that should be a really good driver for us to get to the 1.6%.

然後，當你查看簽署的內容時，請忽略混合情況，因為在 7 月份，我們有點不尋常，其中新租約與續約的比例較大。如果你看一下續訂數字，成長了 4%，這對我們來說是一個非常好的續訂數字。如果你考慮到營業額正在下降，而續訂數量卻保持在如此高的水平，那麼這應該是我們達到 1.6% 的一個非常好的推動力。

Can you confirm what you signed in June, I think May was at 1%.

你能確認一下你6月簽署的情況嗎，我認為5月份是1%。

I do not have the June number right in front of me, but yeah, we'll get back to you on that.

我面前沒有 6 月的數字，但是，是的，我們會就此回覆您。

Okay, no problem. Thank you.

好的，沒問題。謝謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no additional questions. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Ric Campo for any closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我沒有提出其他問題。我想請里克·坎波（Ric Campo）發表結束語。

Very well. Thank you for being on the call today. And this is probably one of the -- given to you the last -- to report and call and what people probably have their questions answered. I want to make sure everybody recognize that we had the red, white and blue shirts going to support the US, and I want to give a great shout out to Simone Biles, a Houston native who made history yesterday by being the most decorated gymnast in history.

很好。感謝您今天接聽電話。這可能是最後給你的報告和電話以及人們的問題可能得到解答的內容之一。我想確保每個人都認識到我們有紅色、白色和藍色的襯衫來支持美國，我想向休斯頓人西蒙·拜爾斯（Simone Biles）大聲喊叫，她昨天創造了歷史，成為全美獲得最多榮譽的體操運動員。

So with that, we'll let you enjoy the rest of your day and the rest of the Olympics. So take care and thanks. Bye-bye.

這樣，我們就可以讓您享受這一天剩下的時間和奧運會的剩餘時間。所以要小心並感謝。再見。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們非常感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。