Camden Property Trust (CPT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Rick Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman and President; and Alex Jessett, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加卡姆登地產信託 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係資深副總裁 Kim Callahan。今天與我一起出席的還有卡姆登董事長兼執行長 Rick Campo；基斯‧奧登，執行副主席兼總裁；和財務長亞歷克斯·傑西特。

Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available this afternoon. We will have a slide presentation in conjunction with our prepared remarks, and those slides will also be available on our website later today or by e-mail upon request. (Operator Instructions) And please note, this event is being recorded.

今天的活動將透過我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分進行網路直播，今天下午將進行重播。我們將結合準備好的發言進行幻燈片演示，這些幻燈片也將在今天晚些時候在我們的網站上提供，或根據要求透過電子郵件提供。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC and we encourage you to review them. Any forward-looking statements made on today's call represent management's current opinions, and the company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events.

在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想建議大家，我們將根據我們當前的期望和信念做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述並不是對未來績效的保證，並且涉及可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。有關這些風險的更多資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到，我們鼓勵您查看它們。今天電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均代表管理層目前的意見，本公司不承擔因後續事件而更新或補充這些陳述的義務。

As a reminder, Camden's complete fourth quarter 2023 earnings release is available in the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and it includes reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures, which will be discussed on this call. We would like to respect everyone's time and complete our call within 1 hour. (Operator Instructions)

提醒一下，卡姆登完整的 2023 年第四季度收益發布可在我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分查看，其中包括對非 GAAP 財務指標的調節，這些將在本次電話會議上討論。我們希望尊重每個人的時間，並在 1 小時內完成我們的通話。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Ric Campo.

此時，我會將電話轉給 Ric Campo。

The theme for our on-hold music today was friends and teammates helping each other. The verse from the theme song of the popular TV show, Friends, sums it up nicely. I'll be there for you when the rain starts to pour. I'll be there for you like I've been there before. I'll be there for you because you've been there for me, too. One of Camden's 9 core values is team players. We recognize our employees who live Camden's values through our annual ACE Awards program. Each year, Camden employees nominate their peers and coworkers for an ACE award. And from our 1,700 employees, 14 are selected to be national ACE winners. Those 14 individuals are recognized and celebrated at our national leadership meeting. Being selected as a national ACE Award winner is the highest honor that Camden associates can achieve and represents the best of the best from Team Camden.

今天我們等待音樂的主題是朋友和隊友互相幫忙。流行電視節目《老友記》主題曲中的歌詞就很好地概括了這一點。當雨開始下起傾盆大雨時，我會在你身邊。我會像以前一樣為你服務。我會在你身邊，因為你也一直在我身邊。卡姆登的 9 個核心價值之一是團隊合作精神。我們透過年度 ACE 獎計劃表彰實踐卡姆登價值觀的員工。每年，卡姆登員工都會提名同事和同事獲得 ACE 獎。從我們的 1,700 名員工中，有 14 人被選為全國 ACE 獲獎者。這 14 個人在我們的國家領導人會議上得到了認可和慶祝。被選為全國 ACE 獎得主是卡姆登員工可以獲得的最高榮譽，代表卡姆登團隊中最優秀的人才。

I want to introduce you to one of our national ACE Award winners for 2023, [Santos Castelo].

我想向您介紹 2023 年國家 ACE 獎得主之一，[Santos Castelo]。

(presentation)

（推介會）

It's folks like Santos who make it certain that no matter what's going on in the world, Camden will always honor our 9 values to ensure that we improve the lives of our teammates, our residents and our stakeholders, one experience at a time. Our finance, accounting, legal and real estate investment teams have had a busy year-end and beginning of 2024, closing over $1.2 billion in refinancing the sales transactions. We began 2024 with a strong balance sheet and are prepared for the growth opportunities as they may develop this year. Our operations and support teams finished the year strong and are positioned to outperform our local submarket competitors again in 2024.

正是像桑托斯這樣的人讓我們確信，無論世界上發生什麼，卡姆登將始終尊重我們的 9 項價值觀，以確保我們改善我們的隊友、居民和利益相關者的生活，一次一種體驗。我們的財務、會計、法律和房地產投資團隊在 2024 年底和年初度過了忙碌的時光，完成了超過 12 億美元的銷售交易再融資。 2024 年開始，我們的資產負債表強勁，並為今年可能出現的成長機會做好了準備。我們的營運和支援團隊在這一年表現強勁，並有望在 2024 年再次超越當地次市場競爭對手。

2024 should be a transition year from peak new apartment deliveries to a more constructive market after supply is absorbed. 2025 starts are projected to plummet to a low -- in the 200,000 range due to difficult market conditions. 2024 apartment absorption is projected to be a little over 400,000 units nationwide with over 200,000 units absorbed in Camden's markets. 2024 apartment demand will be driven more by demographics and migration dynamics than traditional job growth. Apartments will take market share from the single-family market.

2024 年應該是新公寓交付高峰到供應被吸收後市場更具建設性的過渡年。由於市場條件困難，預計 2025 年的開工量將降至 20 萬套的低點。預計到 2024 年，全國公寓吸收量將略高於 40 萬套，其中卡姆登市場吸收量將超過 20 萬套。到 2024 年，公寓需求將更多地受到人口統計和移民動態的推動，而不是傳統的就業成長。公寓將從單戶住宅市場奪取市場份額。

Beginning in 2011 and through 2019, apartments had an average market share of 20% of household formations. Apartments are projected to double that market share to 40% between 2024 and 2026. This is because, first, home affordability is at 20-year low with rising home prices and current interest rates, and no signs of the pressure easing anytime soon, even with rates continuing to fall. In-migration to Camden markets continues to grow. More young adults are in the workforce with solid job growth and wage growth. 30% of the households choose to live alone, which is at an all-time high. Camden's markets continue to lead the nation in job growth.

從 2011 年開始到 2019 年，公寓平均佔家庭結構的 20% 的市場。預計2024 年至2026 年間，公寓的市佔率將翻一番，達到40%。這是因為，首先，隨著房價和當前利率的上漲，房屋負擔能力處於20 年來的最低點，而且短期內沒有跡象表示壓力會緩解，即使利率持續下降。卡姆登市場的移民持續成長。更多的年輕人加入勞動力隊伍，就業成長和薪資成長強勁。 30%的家庭選擇獨居，比例創歷史新高。卡姆登的市場在就業成長方面繼續領先全國。

We look forward to what looks to be a very interesting year. I know that our Camden team is equipped and ready to excel in 2024 by being great friends and great teammates. Thank you, Team Camden for all that you do for Camden and our residents.

我們期待著這看起來非常有趣的一年。我知道我們的卡姆登團隊已做好準備，透過成為好朋友和好隊友，在 2024 年取得優異成績。感謝卡姆登團隊為卡姆登和我們的居民所做的一切。

Keith Oden is up next.

下一個是基斯·奧登。

Thanks, Ric. For 2023, Same Property revenue grew by 5.1%, consistent with our original projections. Six of our markets achieved results within 50 basis points of their original budget and another 6 outperformed their budgets. Of the remaining 3, L.A., Orange County and Atlanta, both underperformed mainly for reasons related to bad debt, skips and evictions and fraud. In Phoenix, the underperformance resulted from market conditions moderating more quickly than we anticipated over the course of 2023. For 2024, we anticipate Same Property revenue to be in the range of 0.5% to 2.5%, with the majority of our markets falling within that range. The outliers on the positive side are expected to be Southern California markets along with Southeast Florida, while Orlando, Nashville and Austin, will likely underperform given outsized competition from new supply this year.

謝謝，里克。 2023 年，Same Property 營收成長了 5.1%，與我們最初的預測一致。我們的 6 個市場的表現在原始預算的 50 個基點以內，另外 6 個市場的表現超出了預算。其餘 3 個城市中，洛杉磯、橘郡和亞特蘭大，均表現不佳，主要原因與壞帳、逃課、驅逐和詐欺有關。在鳳凰城，表現不佳是由於2023 年市場狀況的緩和速度比我們預期的要快。對於2024 年，我們預計Same Property 收入將在0.5% 至2.5% 範圍內，我們的大多數市場都在這個範圍內範圍。正面方面的異常值預計將是南加州市場以及佛羅裡達州東南部，而奧蘭多、納許維爾和奧斯汀由於今年新供應的激烈競爭，可能會表現不佳。

Our top 6 markets should achieve 2024 revenue growth between 2% and 4% and includes San Diego Inland Empire, Southeast Florida, Washington, D.C. Metro, L.A., Orange County, Houston and Charlotte. Our next 5 markets are budgeted for revenue growth between 1% and 2% and include Denver, Tampa, Atlanta, Raleigh and Phoenix. Our remaining 4 markets of Dallas, Orlando, Nashville and Austin, are expected to have revenue growth of plus or minus 1%. As many of you know, we have a tradition of assigning letter grades to forecast conditions in our markets at the beginning of each year and ranking our markets generally in order of their expected performance during 2024. We currently grade our overall portfolio as a B with a moderating outlook as compared to an A- with a moderating outlook last year.

我們的 6 大市場預計到 2024 年收入將實現 2% 至 4% 的成長，包括聖地牙哥內陸帝國、佛羅裡達州東南部、華盛頓特區、洛杉磯、橘郡、休士頓和夏洛特。我們接下來的 5 個市場的營收成長預算在 1% 到 2% 之間，包括丹佛、坦帕、亞特蘭大、羅利和鳳凰城。我們剩餘的達拉斯、奧蘭多、納許維爾和奧斯汀這四個市場的收入預計將成長正負1%。正如你們許多人所知，我們有一個傳統，即每年年初對我們市場的預測狀況進行字母評級，並總體上按照2024 年預期表現的順序對我們的市場進行排名。目前，我們將我們的整體投資組合評級為B，其中與去年展望為溫和的 A- 相比，展望為溫和。

Our full report card is included as part of our earnings call slide deck, which is incorporated into this webcast and will be available on our website after today's call. While job growth is expected to moderate over the course of 2024, the overall economy remains healthy, and we expect our Sunbelt-focused market footprint will allow us to outperform the U.S. outlook. We expect to see continued in-migration into Camden's markets and strong demand for apartments homes in 2024, given the relative unaffordability of buying a single-family home. We reviewed 2024 supply forecasts from several third-party data providers and their projections range from 230,000 to 330,000 completions across our 15 markets over the course of the year.

我們的完整成績單包含在我們的財報電話會議幻燈片中，該投影片已納入本次網路廣播中，並將在今天的電話會議後在我們的網站上提供。儘管 2024 年就業成長預計將放緩，但整體經濟仍保持健康，我們預計以陽光地帶為重點的市場足跡將使我們的表現優於美國的前景。考慮到購買單戶住宅的相對負擔能力，我們預計 2024 年卡姆登市場的人口將持續湧入，公寓需求將會強勁。我們審查了多家第三方資料供應商對 2024 年供應量的預測，他們的預測是我們 15 個市場全年的竣工量為 230,000 至 330,000 套。

After analyzing the submarket locations and price points for these new deliveries, we expect that roughly 20% of those deliveries are between 50,000 and 70,000 new units may be competitive to our existing portfolio. Our top 3 markets for 2024 were the same as our top 3 markets for revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, and they remain strong entering 2024. Their growth rates are expected to slow from the 5% to 8% range they achieved in 2023 and thus have moderating outlooks. Therefore, we've ranked San Diego Inland Empire as an A, Southeast Florida as an A- and Washington, D.C. Metro as a B+. L.A., Orange County, Houston and Charlotte round out the top 6 with L.A., Orange County receiving a B with an improving outlook and the other 2 ranking as a B with moderating outlooks. We anticipate the improvement in L.A. Orange County will come primarily from a reduction in bad debt as we repopulate many of our vacant units with residents who actually pay their rent.

在分析了這些新交付的子市場位置和價格點後，我們預計這些交付中約 20% 的新單元數量在 50,000 至 70,000 之間，可能對我們現有的產品組合具有競爭力。我們 2024 年的前 3 個市場與 2023 年第四季營收成長的前 3 個市場相同，並且進入 2024 年它們仍然強勁。預計它們的成長率將從 2023 年實現的 5% 放緩至 8%因而具有溫和的前景。因此，我們將聖地牙哥內陸帝國評為 A，東南佛羅裡達評為 A-，華盛頓特區都會區評為 B+。洛杉磯、橘郡、休士頓和夏洛特躋身前六名，其中洛杉磯、橘郡獲得 B 級，前景有所改善，另外 2 個城市獲得 B 級，前景溫和。我們預計洛杉磯橘郡的改善將主要來自壞帳的減少，因為我們將實際支付租金的居民重新安置在許多空置單位中。

L.A. Orange County will also see a manageable level of supply this year, which should also serve as a benefit. Our Houston portfolio had steady growth during 2023 and should continue to perform well in 2024. Supply remains in check and the number of competitive deliveries in our submarkets should decline over the course of the year. Charlotte ranks as our #6 projected market this year versus #5 in 2023, so it is still an above average performer, but with revenue growth likely closer to 2% than the almost 7% we reported in 2023. The aggregate level of supply coming into the Charlotte MSA will be elevated this year, and we expect our main competition will fall in the Uptown South End submarket, which is slated to receive 3,000 units this year.

洛杉磯奧蘭治縣今年的供應水平也將處於可控水平，這也應該是一個好處。我們的休士頓投資組合在 2023 年穩定成長，並應在 2024 年繼續表現良好。供應仍然受到控制，我們子市場的競爭性交付數量在這一年中應該會下降。夏洛特今年排名第六，而 2023 年預計排名第五，因此它的表現仍然高於平均水平，但收入增長可能比我們在 2023 年報告的近 7% 更接近 2%。總供應水平即將到來今年進入夏洛特MSA 的數量將會增加，我們預計我們的主要競爭將集中在上城南端子市場，該子市場預計今年將接收3,000 個單位。

Similar to Houston and Charlotte, Denver and Tampa also earned B ratings with moderating outlooks. Denver's revenue growth has been above average in our portfolio for the past 3 years and to continue that trend in 2024. Deliveries will tick up slightly this year, primarily in 1 or 2 of our submarkets, but should be met with solid demand. Tampa has been our #1 market over the last 3 years, averaging over 11% annual revenue growth. The growth will slow to the low single-digit range this year. New supply looks to be manageable in most of our submarkets there, but we are actively monitoring our 2 recently built high-rise assets in the St. Petersburg submarket for competition with the new product being delivered there. In Atlanta, our current assessment of market conditions rates of B- with an improving outlook.

與休士頓和夏洛特類似，丹佛和坦帕也獲得了 B 級評級，前景溫和。過去3 年，丹佛的收入成長一直高於我們投資組合的平均水平，並將在2024 年繼續這一趨勢。今年的交付量將略有增加，主要是在我們的1 或2 個子市場，但應該會滿足強勁的需求。過去 3 年，坦帕一直是我們的第一大市場，平均年收入成長超過 11%。今年的成長將放緩至低個位數範圍。我們在那裡的大多數子市場的新供應似乎都是可控的，但我們正在積極監控我們在聖彼得堡子市場最近建造的兩座高層資產，以與那裡交付的新產品競爭。在亞特蘭大，我們目前對市場狀況的評估為 B-，前景改善。

Similar to L.A., Orange County, we expect to see a reduction in bad debt during 2024, which should boost our revenue growth from the less than 1% achieved in 2023. On the new supply front, Atlanta MSA will continue to add new units in 2024, and we anticipate the most competition from deliveries in our Midtown submarket.

與洛杉磯橘郡類似，我們預計2024 年壞帳將減少，這將推動我們的收入成長較2023 年不到1% 的水平有所提高。在新供應方面，亞特蘭大MSA 將繼續在2024 年增加新單位。到 2024 年，我們預計中城子市場的交付競爭將最為激烈。

Next up are Raleigh and Phoenix, both receiving grades of B-, but with stable outlooks. In the aggregate, these markets performed just under our portfolio average in 2023 for revenue growth and they should remain in that area for 2024 with 1% to 2% growth. And once again, while both of these markets face elevated levels of supply versus historical averages, we expect that only a handful of assets in each market will face head-to-head competition from 2024 deliveries. Dallas would also rate as a B- with a stable outlook, but its revenue growth may fall just under the 1% mark this year. While Dallas still ranks as one of the nation's top metros for job growth and in-migration, the outsized level of supply set to deliver this year will keep pricing power and rent growth muted there.

接下來是羅利 (Raleigh) 和菲尼克斯 (Phoenix)，兩者的評級均為 B-，但前景穩定。總體而言，這些市場 2023 年收入成長的表現略低於我們投資組合的平均水平，並且在 2024 年應保持在該區域，成長率為 1% 至 2%。再次強調，雖然這兩個市場的供應水平高於歷史平均水平，但我們預計，從 2024 年交付開始，每個市場中只有少數資產將面臨正面競爭。達拉斯也被評為 B-，前景穩定，但今年其收入成長可能略低於 1%。儘管達拉斯仍然是全美就業成長和移民最多的大都市之一，但今年將提供的巨大供應水準將使那裡的定價能力和租金成長放緩。

Orlando delivered outsized levels of revenue growth for the past few years, but it has dropped from above average to below average in recent quarters, thus earning a C+ grade with a moderating outlook. The economy in Orlando remains strong, but above average completion slated for 2024, will likely result in minimal revenue growth for the market this year. Our last 2 markets, Nashville and Austin, consistently ranked as top markets for multi-family construction and scheduled delivery of new apartments in recent quarters, while they also rank as 2 of the top U.S. markets for job growth, in-migration, quality of life, et cetera. The sheer amount of new supply coming in 2024 will likely result in flat to slightly negative revenue growth for both of those markets. And we believe 30% to 40% of the new supply in those markets may compete directly with Camden's assets. We have signed both markets a stable outlook for the remainder of 2024 with ratings of C and C-, respectively, given current market conditions.

奧蘭多在過去幾年中實現了超額收入增長，但最近幾個季度從高於平均水平降至低於平均水平，因此獲得了 C+ 評級，前景溫和。奧蘭多的經濟仍然強勁，但預計 2024 年竣工率高於平均水平，因此今年市場的收入成長可能微乎其微。我們的最後兩個市場，納許維爾和奧斯汀，在最近幾個季度一直被評為多戶住宅建設和新公寓預定交付的頂級市場，同時它們也被列為美國就業成長、移民流入、住房品質的前兩個市場。生活等等。 2024 年新增供應量之大可能會導致這兩個市場的營收成長持平甚至略有負成長。我們相信這些市場中 30% 到 40% 的新增供應可能會與卡姆登的資產直接競爭。鑑於目前的市場狀況，我們已為這兩個市場簽署了 2024 年剩餘時間的穩定展望，評級分別為 C 和 C-。

Now a few more details on our 2023 operating results in January 2024 trends. Rental rates for the fourth quarter had signed new leases down 4.3% and renewals up 3.9% for a blended rate of negative 0.6%. Our preliminary January results indicate a slight improvement in signed new leases and moderation in renewals for a slightly better blended rate on our January signed leases to date. February and March renewal offers were sent out with an average increase of 4.1%. Occupancy averaged 94.9% during the fourth quarter '23. In January 2024, occupancy is trending in the same range. And as expected, move-outs to purchase homes remained very low at 10.4% for the fourth quarter of '23, 10.7% for the full year of '23. January move-outs will likely remain in the same range.

現在詳細介紹我們 2023 年營運表現和 2024 年 1 月趨勢。第四季新租約租金下降 4.3%，續約租金上漲 3.9%，綜合租金率為負 0.6%。我們一月份的初步結果表明，簽署的新租約略有改善，續租也有所放緩，迄今為止我們一月份簽署的租約的混合費率略有提高。 2月和3月續約報價平均上漲4.1%。 2023 年第四季的平均入住率為 94.9%。 2024 年 1 月，入住率趨勢處於相同範圍。正如預期的那樣，2023 年第四季的搬出購屋比例仍然非常低，為 10.4%，23 年全年為 10.7%。一月份的遷出量可能會保持在相同的範圍內。

I'll now turn the call over to Alex Jessett, Camden's Chief Financial Officer.

我現在將電話轉給卡姆登財務長 Alex Jessett。

Thanks, Keith. Before I move on to our financial results and guidance, a brief update on our recent real estate and capital markets activity. During the fourth quarter of 2023, we completed construction on Camden NoDa, a 387-unit, $108 million community in Charlotte, which is now approximately 90% leased. We began leasing at Camden Woodmill Creek, a 189 unit, $75 million single-family rental community located in the Woodlands, Texas, and we continued leasing at Camden Durham, a 420-unit, $145 million new development in Durham, North Carolina.

謝謝，基斯。在介紹我們的財務表現和指導之前，我先簡單介紹一下我們最近的房地產和資本市場活動。 2023 年第四季度，我們完成了 Camden NoDa 的建設，這是位於夏洛特的一個擁有 387 個單元、耗資 1.08 億美元的社區，目前約 90% 已出租。我們開始在德克薩斯州伍德蘭茲的Camden Woodmill Creek 進行租賃，這是一個擁有189 個單元、價值7500 萬美元的單戶租賃社區，並且我們繼續在Camden Durham 進行租賃，這是一個位於北卡羅來納州達勒姆的420 個單元、價值1.45 億美元的新開發案。

Additionally, at the end of the quarter, we sold Camden Martinique, a 714-unit, 38-year-old community in Costa Mesa, California, for $232 million. The community was sold at an approximate 5.5% yield after management fees and actual CapEx and generated a 10.6% unleveraged return over our almost 26-year hold period. Additionally, during the quarter, we issued $500 million of 3-year senior unsecured notes with a fixed coupon of 5.85%. We subsequently swapped the entire amount of the offering to floating rate at SOFR plus 112 basis points. After quarter end, we issued $400 million of 10-year senior unsecured notes with a fixed coupon of 4.9% and a yield of 4.94%. Also, after quarter end, we prepaid our $300 million floating rate term loan. And on January 16, we repaid at maturity, a $250 million, 4.4% senior unsecured note. In conjunction with the term loan prepayment, we will recognize a noncore charge of approximately $900,000 associated with unamortized loan costs.

此外，在本季末，我們以 2.32 億美元的價格出售了位於加州科斯塔梅薩的卡姆登馬提尼克島，這是一個擁有 714 個單元、擁有 38 年歷史的社區。在扣除管理費和實際資本支出後，社區以約 5.5% 的收益率出售，並在我們近 26 年的持有期內產生了 10.6% 的非槓桿回報。此外，本季我們也發行了 5 億美元的 3 年期優先無抵押票據，固定票面利率為 5.85%。隨後，我們將此次發行的全部金額轉換為 SOFR 加 112 個基點的浮動利率。季度末後，我們發行了 4 億美元的 10 年期優先無抵押票據，固定票息為 4.9%，收益率為 4.94%。此外，在季度末後，我們預付了 3 億美元的浮動利率定期貸款。 1 月 16 日，我們到期償還了 2.5 億美元、利率 4.4% 的優先無擔保票據。結合定期貸款預付款，我們將確認與未攤銷貸款成本相關的約 90 萬美元的非核心費用。

As of today, approximately 85% of our debt is fixed rate. We have almost full availability under our $1.2 billion credit facility and we have less than $300 million of maturities over the next 24 months with only $138 million left to fund under our existing development pipeline. Our balance sheet remains strong with net debt-to-EBITDA at 4x. Turning to financial results. Last night, we reported core funds from operations for the fourth quarter of 2023 of $190.5 million or $1.73 per share, $0.01 ahead of the midpoint of our prior quarterly guidance. This outperformance resulted almost entirely from lower-than-anticipated levels of bad debt. As previously reported, in September, we experienced an unusual spike in bad debt, which we forecasted to extend through the fourth quarter.

截至今天，我們大約 85% 的債務是固定利率的。我們的 12 億美元信貸額度幾乎已全部可用，未來 24 個月的到期期限將不到 3 億美元，現有開發管道中只剩下 1.38 億美元可供資助。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 4 倍。轉向財務業績。昨晚，我們公佈了 2023 年第四季度營運核心資金為 1.905 億美元，即每股 1.73 美元，比我們先前季度指導的中位數高出 0.01 美元。這種優異的表現幾乎完全是由於壞帳水準低於預期。正如之前報導的，九月份，我們經歷了壞帳異常激增，我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季度。

Fortunately, September appears to have been an anomaly, and bad debt for the fourth quarter averaged 1.1% as compared to our forecast of 1.5%. Additionally, we delivered same-store occupancy for the fourth quarter of 94.9%, 10 basis points ahead of our forecast. For 2023, we delivered same-store revenue growth of 5.1%, expense growth of 6.7% and NOI growth of 4.3%. You can refer to Page 24 of our fourth quarter supplemental package for details on the key assumptions driving our 2024 financial outlook. We expect our 2024 core FFO per share to be in the range of $6.59 to $6.89 with the midpoint of $6.74 representing an $0.08 per share decrease from our 2023 results.

幸運的是，9 月似乎有些反常，第四季壞帳平均為 1.1%，而我們預測為 1.5%。此外，我們第四季的同店入住率為 94.9%，比我們的預測高出 10 個基點。 2023 年，我們的同店營收成長 5.1%，費用成長 6.7%，NOI 成長 4.3%。您可以參閱我們第四季度補充資料的第 24 頁，以了解推動我們 2024 年財務前景的關鍵假設的詳細資訊。我們預計 2024 年核心 FFO 每股收益將在 6.59 美元至 6.89 美元之間，中位數為 6.74 美元，較 2023 年業績每股減少 0.08 美元。

This decrease is anticipated to result primarily from an approximate $0.07 per share increase in core FFO related to the growth in operating income from our development, nonsame-store and retail communities resulting primarily from the incremental contribution from our 7 development communities in lease-up during either 2023 and/or 2024. A $0.07 per share decrease in interest expense attributable to approximately $185 million of lower average anticipated debt balances outstanding in 2024 as compared to 2023, partially offset by lower levels of capitalized interest as we complete certain development communities.

預計這一下降主要是由於核心FFO 每股增加約0.07 美元，這與我們的開發、非同店和零售社區的營業收入增長有關，這主要是由於我們的7 個開發社區在租賃期間的增量貢獻所致。2023 年和/或2024 年。每股利息支出減少 0.07 美元，原因是2024 年未償還平均預期債務餘額比2023 年減少約1.85 億美元，部分被我們完成某些開發社區後資本化利息水平的降低所抵消。

The lower debt balances result from the previously mentioned Camden Martinique disposition and an additional $115 million disposition of an Atlanta community scheduled for next week. For 2024, we are anticipating $41 million on average outstanding under our line of credit with an average rate of approximately 5.5% and an average rate of approximately 5.8% on our $500 million floating rate unsecured bond. We are not anticipating any additional unsecured bond offerings in 2024. A $0.035 per share increase in fee and asset management and interest and other income, resulting from increased third-party general contracting fees and interest earned on cash balances.

債務餘額較低是由於先前提到的卡姆登馬提尼克島處置以及計劃於下週對亞特蘭大社區進行的額外 1.15 億美元處置。 2024 年，我們預計信用額度下的平均未償餘額為 4,100 萬美元，平均利率約為 5.5%，我們的 5 億美元浮動利率無擔保債券的平均利率約為 5.8%。我們預計 2024 年不會再發行任何額外的無擔保債券。由於第三方總承包費用和現金餘額賺取的利息增加，費用和資產管理以及利息和其他收入每股增加 0.035 美元。

We are assuming average cash balances of $60 million in 2024, earning approximately 4.6%. This $0.175 cumulative increase in anticipated core FFO per share is entirely offset by an approximate $0.155 per share decrease in core FFO from the $293 million of 2023 completed dispositions, an approximate $0.06 per share decrease from the disposition anticipated next week and an approximate $0.04 per share decrease, resulting primarily from the combination of higher general and administrative and property management expenses.

我們假設 2024 年平均現金餘額為 6,000 萬美元，收益率約為 4.6%。預計每股核心 FFO 累計增加 0.175 美元，完全被核心 FFO 較 2023 年已完成處置的 2.93 億美元每股減少約 0.155 美元、較下週預期處置減少約 0.06 美元以及每股約 0.04 美元所抵消。減少減少。 ，主要是由於一般、行政和物業管理費用增加所致。

At the midpoint, we are expecting flat same-store net operating income with revenue growth of 1.5% and expense growth of 4.5%. Each 1% increase in same-store NOI is approximately $0.085 per share in core FFO. Our 2024 same-store revenue growth midpoint of 1.5% is based upon an approximate 0.5% earning at the end of 2023 and an effectively flat loss to lease. We also expect a 1.4% increase in market rental rates from December 31, 2023 to December 31, 2024, recognizing half of this annual market rental rate increase, combined with our embedded growth results in a budgeted 1.2% increase in 2024 net market rents.

中點時，我們預期同店淨營業收入持平，營收成長 1.5%，費用成長 4.5%。同店 NOI 每增加 1%，核心 FFO 約為每股 0.085 美元。我們 2024 年同店營收成長中點 1.5% 是基於 2023 年底約 0.5% 的收益以及實際上持平的租賃損失。我們也預計，從2023 年12 月31 日到2024 年12 月31 日，市場租金將上漲1.4%，佔年度市場租金漲幅的一半，加上我們的嵌入成長，預計2024 年淨市場租金將成長1.2 %。

We are assuming that bad debt continues to moderate through the year, reaching 1% by the fourth quarter and averaging 1.1% for the full year, a 30 basis point improvement over 2023. When combining our 1.2% increase in net market rents, with our 30 basis point decline in bad debt, we are budgeting 2024 rental income growth of 1.5%. Rental income encompasses 89% of our total rental revenues. The remaining 11% of our property revenues is primarily comprised of utility rebilling and other fees and is anticipated to grow at a similar level to our rental income due to decreased pricing power and increased regulatory constraints. Our 2024 same-store expense growth midpoint of 4.5% results primarily from anticipated above-average insurance increases.

我們假設壞帳全年持續放緩，到第四季達到 1%，全年平均為 1.1%，比 2023 年改善 30 個基點。將淨市場租金 1.2% 的增幅與壞帳下降30 個基點，我們預計2024年租金收入成長1.5%。租金收入占我們總租金收入的89%。我們的房地產收入的其餘 11% 主要由公用事業再計費和其他費用組成，由於定價能力下降和監管限制增加，預計其增長水平與我們的租金收入類似。我們預期 2024 年同店費用成長中點為 4.5%，主要是因為預期保險成長高於平均值。

Insurance represents 7.5% of our total operating expenses and is anticipated to increase by 18% as insurance providers continue to face large global losses and resulting financial pressures. Our remaining operating expenses are anticipated to grow at approximately 3.4% in the aggregate, including property taxes, which represent approximately 36% of our total operating expenses and are projected to increase approximately 3% in 2024. Excluding our planned disposition next week, the midpoint of our guidance range assumes $250 million of acquisitions, offset by an additional $250 million of dispositions with no net accretion or dilution from these matching transactions.

保險費用占我們總營運費用的 7.5%，由於保險提供者繼續面臨巨額全球損失和由此產生的財務壓力，預計該費用將增加 18%。我們的剩餘營運費用預計將整體成長約 3.4%，其中包括財產稅，約占我們總營運費用的 36%，預計 2024 年將成長約 3%。不包括我們下週計畫的處置，中點我們的指導範圍假設2.5 億美元的收購，被額外的2.5 億美元的處置所抵消，這些匹配交易沒有淨增值或稀釋。

Page 24 of our supplemental package also details other assumptions for 2024, including the plan for up to $300 million of development starts in the second half of the year and approximately $175 million of total 2024 development spend. We expect core FFO per share for the first quarter of 2024 to be within the range of $1.65 to $1.69. The midpoint of $1.67 represents a $0.06 per share decrease from the fourth quarter of 2023, which is primarily the result of an approximate $0.035 per share sequential decline in same-store NOI, driven by an approximate $0.04 per share increase in sequential same-store expenses resulting from the timing of quarterly tax refunds, the reset of our annual property tax accrual on January 1 of each year and other expense increases, primarily attributable to typical seasonal trends, including the timing of on-site salary increases.

我們的補充方案第 24 頁也詳細介紹了 2024 年的其他假設，包括下半年啟動高達 3 億美元的開發計畫以及 2024 年開發支出總額約 1.75 億美元。我們預計 2024 年第一季每股核心 FFO 將在 1.65 美元至 1.69 美元之間。中點 1.67 美元代表每股較 2023 年第四季減少 0.06 美元，這主要是由於同店 NOI 環比每股下降約 0.035 美元，而同店費用環比每股增加約 0.04 美元由於季度退稅時間、每年1 月1日重置我們的年度財產稅應計額以及其他費用增加（主要歸因於典型的季節性趨勢，包括現場工資增加的時間）。

This is partially offset by a $0.005 per share increase in sequential same-store revenue, primarily from higher levels of fee and other income. We are anticipating occupancy will remain effectively flat quarter-to-quarter. An approximate $0.035 per share decrease attributable to our December 28, 2023, $232 million disposition of Camden Martinique, an approximate $0.01 per share decrease attributable to our planned $115 million disposition next week and an approximate $0.005 per share decrease resulting primarily from the timing of various other corporate accruals.

這被同店收入每股連續增長 0.005 美元部分抵消，主要來自費用和其他收入水平的提高。我們預計入住率將按季度保持基本持平。每股減少約0.035 美元，歸因於我們於2023 年12 月28 日以2.32 億美元處置卡姆登馬提尼克島，每股減少約0.01 美元，歸因於我們計劃下週處置1.15 億美元，每股減少約0.005 美元，主要由於各種事件的時間安排其他公司應計費用。

This $0.085 per share cumulative decrease in quarterly sequential core FFO is partially offset by an approximate $0.015 per share decrease in interest expense, resulting from the lower debt balances as a result of the disposition proceeds and an approximate $0.01 per share increase in core FFO related to additional interest income earned on cash balances. Anticipated noncore adjustments for the first quarter include a combined $0.03 from freeze damage related to Winter Storm Gerri, the previously mentioned charge associated with unamortized loan costs from our term loan and costs associated with litigation matters.

核心 FFO 季度環比每股累計減少 0.085 美元，被利息支出每股約 0.015 美元的減少部分抵消，這是由於處置收益導致債務餘額減少，以及與相關業務相關的核心 FFO 每股增加約 0.01 美元。現金餘額賺取的額外利息收入。第一季的預期非核心調整包括與冬季風暴 Gerri 相關的凍結損失總計 0.03 美元，前面提到的與我們定期貸款的未攤銷貸款成本以及與訴訟事務相關的成本相關的費用。

At this time, we will open the call up to questions.

此時，我們將開放電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯提出。

Can you just talk a little bit about the macro assumptions that you have built into your guidance today, we're seeing 353,000 jobs added. So how much elasticity is there in your guidance that could be influenced by the job market. And then along those lines also, are there continue -- can you provide an update a little bit on the migration trips to the Sunbelt as part of your response?

您能否簡單談談您今天納入指引的宏觀假設，我們看到新增了 353,000 個就業機會。那麼您的指導中有多少彈性可能會受到就業市場的影響。沿著這些思路，您能否繼續提供有關陽光地帶移民旅行的一些最新信息，作為您回應的一部分？

Sure. So the job number today and the revision for December was definitely, I think, the market is putting it -- calling it a blowout, right? And it certainly is. And our overall economic backdrop for what we think demand is going to be in our markets is definitely not based on blowout numbers. Clearly, job -- we thought and I think most of the market believe that job growth has slowed dramatically in 2024. So obviously, more job growth helps us. When you look at where the job growth is, it's in our markets. If you look at Texas and Florida have led the nation in job growth post-COVID, and we'll continue to do that. So it obviously is very good for us, and it's not -- that kind of drop growth is definitely not baked into our numbers.

當然。因此，我認為今天的就業數據和 12 月的修正絕對是市場所說的——稱之為井噴，對嗎？確實如此。我們認為市場需求的整體經濟背景絕對不是基於井噴的數字。顯然，我們認為，而且我認為大多數市場都認為，2024 年就業成長將大幅放緩。顯然，更多的就業成長對我們有幫助。當你看看就業成長在哪裡時，它就在我們的市場。如果你看看德州和佛羅裡達州在新冠疫情後的就業成長方面領先全國，我們將繼續這樣做。因此，這顯然對我們非常有利，但事實並非如此——這種下降的成長絕對沒有體現在我們的數據中。

When you think about what's really driving demand in 2024 and 2025, we don't think it was -- increased job growth driving that demand. What's been happening is multifamily has been taking market share from single family as I said in my -- in the beginning of the call, we've gone from a historic average of 20% multifamily demand in total household formations to 40%, and that's driven by everything we know, right, that single-family market is really hard for somebody to buy a house today. I mean we had, I think, a total of 10.7% of people moved out to buy houses at Camden in 2023.

當你思考 2024 年和 2025 年真正推動需求的因素時，我們認為並不是就業成長的成長推動了需求。正如我在電話會議開始時所說，多戶型住宅一直在從單戶型住宅中奪取市場份額，我們已經從歷史平均水平的多戶型住宅需求佔總家庭結構的 20% 上升到 40%，這就是在在我們所知道的一切的推動下，今天的單戶住宅市場確實很難有人買房。我的意思是，我認為 2023 年共有 10.7% 的人搬出去在卡姆登買房子。

And so when you think about those dynamics, and there's other broader dynamics, too, which is 30% of Americans today are living alone, and that benefits apartments. And that number is way up from the past time frame. So the blowout job numbers obviously help our numbers. And if we continue at this level, it will be pretty interesting. As far as in-migration, Alex, you can talk about in migration. When you look at the demand side, for example, we expect over 200,000 units of demand in 2024 and that's on a 220-unit supply, right, plus or minus, or completions. And so it's pretty balanced when you get down to it. But ultimately, when you look out, for example, their projection showing 380,000 total demand for the U.S., from 400,000 in '24 to 380,000 in '25. So demand is being driven by different drivers today, not just the old adage of 1 apartment for every 5 jobs. It just doesn't work anymore because of the in-migration.

因此，當你考慮這些動態時，還有其他更廣泛的動態，即當今 30% 的美國人獨居，這對公寓有利。這個數字比過去的時間範圍要高得多。因此，井噴式的就業數字顯然對我們的數字有幫助。如果我們繼續保持這個水平，那將會非常有趣。至於移民，亞歷克斯，你可以談論移民。例如，當您查看需求方面時，我們預計 2024 年的需求量將超過 200,000 單位，而這是基於 220 單位的供應（正確、加減或完工）。所以當你認真對待它時，它是相當平衡的。但最終，例如，當你觀察時，他們的預測顯示美國的總需求為 380,000，從 24 年的 400,000 增加到 25 年的 380,000。因此，今天的需求是由不同的驅動因素驅動的，而不僅僅是每 5 個工作崗位就有 1 套公寓的古老格言。由於移民的到來，它不再起作用了。

The other thing also is not just in-migration from other cities, it's actually total immigration because immigration was way down during COVID, and now it's back to more normal and those immigrants tend to -- and this is legal immigration, I'm not opining on [border] or anything like that, but it's -- so that's helped us, too. Alex, you might hit the in-migration a bit.

另一件事也不僅僅是來自其他城市的移民，它實際上是全部移民，因為在新冠疫情期間移民數量大幅下降，現在又恢復到正常狀態，這些移民往往會這樣做——這是合法移民，我不是對[邊界]或類似的事情發表意見，但這對我們也有幫助。亞歷克斯，你可能會遇到一些移民問題。

Yes, absolutely. So we continue to have really strong in-migration to our apartment. So if you look at those who have moved from non-Sunbelt to Sunbelt for us, in the fourth quarter, it was about 17.5% of our total move-ins. By the way, that's fairly consistent with what we've seen over the past couple of years. So that remains really strong. And one of the other things that we track is that we track Google searches from people in New York or people in California looking for apartments to rent in our markets. And just to give you a really -- this is interesting to me, New York searches for Texas apartments were up 72% in the fourth quarter of '23 as compared to the fourth quarter of '22. California searches for Texas apartments were up 52% in the fourth quarter of '23 to the -- as compared to the fourth quarter of '22. So still very strong demand for folks coming out of New York, out of California to our markets.

是的，一點沒錯。因此，我們公寓的移民數量仍然非常強勁。因此，如果你看看那些為我們從非陽光地帶搬到陽光地帶的人，在第四季度，這大約占我們搬入總數的 17.5%。順便說一句，這與我們過去幾年所看到的情況相當一致。所以這仍然非常強大。我們追蹤的另一件事是，我們追蹤紐約人或加州人在我們的市場上尋找出租公寓的谷歌搜尋。老實說，這對我來說很有趣，與 22 年第四季相比，23 年第四季紐約德州公寓的搜尋量增加了 72%。與 2020 年第四季相比，2023 年第四季加州對德州公寓的搜尋量增加了 52%。因此，對來自紐約、加州來到我們市場的人們的需求仍然非常強勁。

Next question will come from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題將由 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa 提出。

But I guess I had a question on what your implicit blended new and renewal kind of leasing spreads were and maybe how that tied into your occupancy assumptions? I guess what I'm really asking is are you guys really solving more for occupancy here and will give up on the new rate side? Or are you willing to let occupancy drift lower and sort of keep pricing firmer?

但我想我有一個問題，即您隱含的混合新租賃和續租租賃價差是多少，也許這與您的入住率假設有何關聯？我想我真正要問的是，你們真的在解決更多的入住問題，並且會放棄新的房價嗎？或者您願意讓入住率下降並保持定價更堅挺嗎？

Yes. So we're assuming that occupancy is going to be flat in 2024 as compared to 2023, and that number is 95.3%. And we are driving towards that number. When we look at new lease and renewals and the trade out for the full year. What we're anticipating is new leases to be down 0.6%, renewals up 3.6% for a blended increase of 1.2%. And that is going to sort of follow what you would think be typical seasonal patterns.

是的。因此，我們假設 2024 年的入住率將與 2023 年持平，數字為 95.3%。我們正在朝著這個數字前進。當我們考慮全年的新租約、續約和換屋時。我們預計新租約將下降 0.6%，續約租約將成長 3.6%，綜合成長 1.2%。這將遵循您所認為的典型季節性模式。

The next question will come from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題將由加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Brad Heffern 提出。

Can you just talk about how your assumptions for rent growth in '24 compared to how you would guide in a normal year without all these supply headwinds? I think you said 1.4% market rent growth so where would you normally start the year? And I guess -- why is that the right differential to that given the supply backdrop?

您能否談談您對 24 年租金增長的假設與沒有所有這些供應逆風的正常年份的指導相比如何？我想您說過市場租金成長 1.4%，那麼您通常會從哪裡開始今年呢？我想——為什麼在供應背景下這是正確的差異？

Yes. We would typically -- I mean, obviously, every year is different, and every year has its own unique parameters around supply and demand. In our business, the typical year is 3%. And you can see that we're at 1.4%, and that's obviously driven by the supply factors were there. As we've talked about on the prepared remarks, we think demand is still incredibly strong, but we are cognitive of the supply issues, and that's why you're coming up with a 1.4% for the full year.

是的。我們通常會——我的意思是，顯然，每年都是不同的，每年都有自己獨特的供需參數。在我們的業務中，典型的年份是 3%。你可以看到我們的成長率為 1.4%，這顯然是由供應因素推動的。正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，我們認為需求仍然非常強勁，但我們認識到供應問題，這就是為什麼你提出全年 1.4% 的成長。

So Brad, to put it in context on the issue of demand and the job number that came out today, we used 2 primary data providers. They had very different views about employment growth for 2024, and we basically ended up taking the midpoint of the 2 of them because they both had their own story that they could tell around it. But the midpoint of our 2 data providers forecast for total employment growth across Camden's markets for 2024 was about 300,000. And we just got that in the month of January. So it's -- I think we've tried to build in some realism around the numbers and the forecast. But clearly, our forecast did not anticipate anything like having the entire job growth projected for the year in the first month, so...

因此，布拉德，為了將其放在需求問題和今天公佈的就業人數的背景下，我們使用了 2 個主要數據提供者。他們對 2024 年就業成長的看法截然不同，我們基本上最終取了他們兩個的中間點，因為他們都有自己的故事可以講述。但我們的兩家數據供應商預測 2024 年卡姆登市場總就業成長的中位數約為 30 萬人。我們在一月才得到這個結果。所以我認為我們已經嘗試圍繞數字和預測建立一些現實主義的內容。但顯然，我們的預測並沒有預見到諸如第一個月就預測今年整個就業成長之類的事情，所以...

The next question will come from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題將由 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt 提出。

I was just wondering, I know you guys don't offer concessions across the stabilized portfolio, but just wondering what kind of has changed just on concessions as far as what you're seeing across those markets that are most exposed to some of the new supply?

我只是想知道，我知道你們不會在穩定的投資組合中提供讓步，但只是想知道，就你們在那些最容易受到某些新產品影響的市場中看到的情況而言，僅在讓步方面發生了什麼樣的變化供應？

It's very typical of what we've seen. The toughest markets like -- would be Austin, Texas and Nashville. And there the concessions are significant, anywhere from 2 to 3 months free. Generally, merchant builders don't go beyond 3 months free, but you're seeing that in the most supply constraint -- supply markets. When you get to more markets that aren't as pressured, then compared to those 2, you're anywhere from 1 month to 6 weeks to 2 months max. And that's kind of what we're seeing in some of the other markets.

這是我們所看到的非常典型的情況。最困難的市場是德州的奧斯汀和納許維爾。而且那裡的優惠力道很大，有 2 到 3 個月的免費時間。一般來說，商業建築商的免費期限不會超過 3 個月，但您會在供應最受限的地方（供應市場）看到這一點。當您進入更多壓力較小的市場時，與這兩個市場相比，您最多需要 1 個月到 6 週到 2 個月。這就是我們在其他一些市場看到的情況。

The next question will come from Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

下一個問題將由里奇·安德森和韋德·布希提出。

So I wonder if we could talk a little bit about the longer-term view. Either Avalon and EQR said, well, peak supply in '24 means peak revenue declines in 2025 or in theory, no one knows for sure. Do you feel like that is at least in the wheelhouse of a possibility in that what we're seeing today in terms of your outlook, which I think most people think looks better than expectations going in, could actually sort of see a downdraft next year as the full lot of the supply is absorbed into your portfolio?

所以我想知道我們是否可以談談長期觀點。 Avalon 和 EQR 都表示，好吧，24 年的供應高峰意味著 2025 年的高峰收入下降，或者從理論上講，沒有人確切知道。你是否覺得這至少是一種可能性，因為我們今天所看到的你的前景，我認為大多數人認為看起來比預期要好，實際上明年可能會出現下滑當全部供應都被吸收到您的投資組合中式？

Based on some of the providers we use, they show an uptick in '25 in our markets, not a downtick. And if you think about the supply discussion that I had a minute ago, the supply project or the supply we know about, the demand is the real issue, right? So when you look at the demand projections for this year, it's -- they're nationwide, over 400,000 units. And then the projection for the following year, even with a slow -- very low job growth mark, is something like 380,000 units of demand. So the demand drivers, interestingly enough, are just not usual demand drivers in multifamily. It's always been about job growth, right? And today, it's about taking market share from single families -- single-family market because it's so upside down on a cost to rent perspective and lack of inventory in the resale market.

根據我們使用的一些提供者的數據，我們的市場在 25 年呈上升趨勢，而不是下降。如果你想想我一分鐘前進行的供應討論，供應項目或我們了解的供應，需求才是真正的問題，對吧？因此，當您查看今年的需求預測時，您會發現，全國範圍內的需求量超過 400,000 輛。然後，即使就業成長緩慢、非常低，對下一年的預測也約為 38 萬單位的需求。因此，有趣的是，需求驅動因素並不是多戶住宅中常見的需求驅動因素。這一直與就業成長有關，對吧？如今，問題在於從單戶家庭中奪取市場份額——單戶市場，因為從租金成本的角度來看，以及轉售市場上庫存的缺乏，它是如此的顛倒。

And what's happened -- what's really interesting is that if you want to buy a new house in America today, you pretty much have to buy or if you want to buy a house, you pretty much have to buy a new house. And when you look at the -- usually, when interest rates go up this high, the single-family homebuilders all crash and lay people off of. They had about a 5- or 6-month hiatus and then went back to hardcore building houses because there was no inventory to be -- for single-family buyers to buy, and that's continuing. So I think that these demand drivers that are actually -- that are driving this really positive outlook for demand in 2024 are going to be in place in 2025 as well. And especially if you have a backdrop of job growth that looks like it's -- I'm not sure you can say January is going to be a print every month in this year.

所發生的事情 - 真正有趣的是，如果你今天想在美國購買新房子，你幾乎必須購買，或者如果你想買房子，你幾乎必須購買新房子。當你看看——通常，當利率上升到如此高的水平時，單戶住宅建築商都會倒閉並裁員。他們有大約 5 或 6 個月的中斷時間，然後又回到了硬核建築房屋，因為沒有庫存可供單戶買家購買，而且這種情況仍在繼續。因此，我認為這些需求驅動因素實際上正在推動 2024 年需求前景的積極發展，也將在 2025 年出現。尤其是如果你有一個看起來像這樣的就業成長的背景，我不確定你是否可以說今年一月將是每個月的印刷品。

But clearly, the job market is a lot stronger than people thought it might be, and that could help with the absorption and in 2025 as well. So I haven't seen very many projections that show 2025 where rents are going down. They're bottom -- most of the numbers that we see from folks, they're bottoming in 2024 and then they start an uptick in 2025 because you've absorbed a lot so many units in 2024.

但顯然，就業市場比人們想像的要強大得多，這可能有助於吸收，也有助於 2025 年。因此，我還沒有看到太多顯示 2025 年租金會下降的預測。它們處於底部——我們從人們那裡看到的大多數數字，它們在 2024 年觸底，然後在 2025 年開始上升，因為你在 2024 年吸收了很多單位。

The next question will come from Eric Wolfe with Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫（Eric Wolfe）提出。

So correct me if this is wrong, but I assume that you had a gain to lease today. So I was just wondering based on your history, if there's a certain gain to lease level where you're no longer able to pass through like 3.5% to 4% type renewal increases. And then for that 4.1% renewals you sent out for February and March, I was wondering what the right sort of achieve rate to think about would be on that?

如果這是錯誤的，請糾正我，但我認為您今天有收益可出租。所以我只是想知道根據您的歷史記錄，租賃水平是否有一定的增長，您不再能夠透過像 3.5% 到 4% 類型的續約增加。然後，對於您在 2 月和 3 月發出的 4.1% 續訂，我想知道要考慮的正確實現率是多少？

So first of all, we're actually not at a gain to lease. We have -- we're basically a flat -- no loss lease or gain to lease. When you think about renewals, we're anticipating the fourth -- excuse me, the first quarter that we're going to get it right around 3.9%, so fairly close to what we're sending out. And then the other question, which I think is sort of really around the differential between new leases and renewals. When we look at our math, the differential for the full year actual percentage-wise between somebody with a sign a new lease for a renewal is really only about 1.5% differential. So it's not that significant and not something that we think is problematic.

首先，我們實際上並沒有從租賃中獲得收益。我們基本上是一套公寓，沒有租賃損失或租賃收益。當你考慮續訂時，我們預計第四季——對不起，第一季我們將達到 3.9% 左右，非常接近我們發出的數據。然後是另一個問題，我認為這實際上是關於新租約和續約之間的差異。當我們計算時，簽訂新租約並續約的人之間全年實際百分比差異實際上只有 1.5% 左右。所以這並不是那麼重要，我們認為也不是有問題的。

The next question will come from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

下一個問題將由 Haendel St. Juste 和 Mizuho 提出。

Just hoping you could talk about development for a moment here. I see you have up to $300 million of new starts, including the guide. So curious when we could see those starts, how they're penciling today from a yield or IRR perspective and which markets we can see those in?

只是希望您能在這裡談論一下開發。我看到你們有高達 3 億美元的新起點，包括指南。很好奇我們什麼時候能看到這些開始，從殖利率或內部報酬率的角度來看它們今天的表現如何，以及我們可以在哪些市場看到這些？

The developments that we have in that model or in the model are in Charlotte and they're suburban 3-story walk-up type product. And we would start those depending on how the year unfolds in the back half of the year, so that we could deliver into '26 and '27. And the yields are anywhere from in the mid-5s to low 6s in terms of stabilized yields. And when you look at IRRs, it's really kind of complicated to figure an IRR today given what are you going to expect cap rates to be. But ultimately, we think there's going to be a pretty constructive market in '26 and '27 when these properties deliver. We have another -- a number of them in the pipeline as well in other markets. But these 2 because they're pretty simple and they come in at a price point that's very affordable relative to urban high-rise in the same market is pretty attractive.

我們在該模型或該模型中的開發項目位於夏洛特，它們是郊區的三層無電梯型產品。我們將根據今年下半年的情況來開始這些工作，以便我們可以在 26 和 27 年交付。就穩定收益率而言，收益率在 5 左右到 6 左右不等。當你查看 IRR 時，考慮到你預期的上限利率是多少，今天計算 IRR 確實有點複雜。但最終，我們認為當這些房產交付時，26 年和 27 年將會出現一個相當有建設性的市場。我們還有另一個——其中一些正在醞釀之中，其他市場也同樣如此。但這兩個項目非常有吸引力，因為它們非常簡單，而且相對於同一市場的城市高層建築來說，它們的價格非常實惠。

Okay. And then maybe on the real estate tax guide. You also, I think you mentioned, Alex, 3.5%, I think it was embedded in your same-store expense guide there. A little bit lower than I think a lot of us were thinking and certainly given what we've seen recently, I'm curious if we're kind of past the peak headwinds there for real estate taxes and selling into a new norm here or maybe you're perhaps benefiting from something else that's less obvious to us.

好的。然後也許是房地產稅指南。我想你也提到過，亞歷克斯，3.5%，我認為它已經嵌入你的同店費用指南了。比我認為我們許多人的想法要低一點，當然考慮到我們最近所看到的情況，我很好奇我們是否已經度過了房地產稅的頂峰逆風並在這裡銷售進入新常態，或者也許您可能從其他對我們來說不太明顯的事情中受益。

Yes, absolutely. So the property tax number that we have in our guidance is 3%. And if you think about it, it's really the same number that we experienced in 2023. And so it seems that we are reverting back to the long-term mean, which is in that sort of 3% to 3.5% range. Really, the big driver that you have is Texas. And as we discussed in prior earnings calls, Texas is very favorable when it comes to property taxes, especially with a new bill that was passed last year. And so we're receiving the benefit of that for a second year in a row. And we actually think that our total property taxes in Texas are going to be up about 2.2%, which is really a pretty low number, and that makes up about 40% of all of our property taxes. So that's the primary driver there.

是的，一點沒錯。因此，我們指導中的財產稅稅率是 3%。如果你仔細想想，這確實與我們在 2023 年經歷的數字相同。因此，我們似乎正在恢復到長期平均值，即 3% 到 3.5% 的範圍內。確實，最大的推動力是德克薩斯州。正如我們在先前的財報電話會議中所討論的那樣，德州在財產稅方面非常優惠，尤其是去年通過的一項新法案。因此，我們連續第二年受益於此。事實上，我們認為德州的財產稅總額將上漲約 2.2%，這確實是一個相當低的數字，但約占我們所有財產稅的 40%。這就是主要驅動力。

The next question will come from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題將由亞歷山大·戈德法布和派珀·桑德勒提出。

Just want to go back, I think -- Ric or Keith, I think at the beginning of the call, you mentioned the expectation for nationally 400,000 unit absorption this year, 200,000 of which would be in the Camden markets. But I think they're like close to 700,000, 650,000 units expected to be delivered this year. So just wanted to better understand the comments around absorption. And then also as part of that, are you -- we all understand what's going on with the supply, but are you suggesting that the share of housing going to apartments versus single-family will obviously continue to sustain? And therefore, versus historically where jobs would be more of the factor, it's really more the household formation that's really the factor now into next year.

我想回顧一下——Ric 或 Keith，我想在電話會議開始時，您提到了今年全國吸收 40 萬套公寓的預期，其中 20 萬套將在卡姆登市場。但我認為今年預計將交付接近 70 萬至 65 萬輛。所以只是想更好地理解吸收的評論。另外，作為其中的一部分，我們都了解供應情況，但您是否認為公寓與單戶住宅的住房比例顯然會繼續維持下去？因此，與歷史上工作更重要的因素相比，從現在到明年，家庭結構才是真正的因素。

It sounds like you answered the question. Yes, that's what's going on. I mean we're -- without amazing job growth, we're still able to produce a lot of demand, and it's all a function of different demand drivers and jobs, right? And today, if you look at a share that we're -- that apartments are taking from the household formations and you look at it historically, it's double what it has been for a long time. And so that's -- it's almost the same as what's happening in the single-family for sale market is their market share has doubled at least and maybe even tripled from the norm because of the lack of inventory of single-family homes to buy because of the lock-in effect.

聽起來你回答了這個問題。是的，就是這樣。我的意思是，即使沒有驚人的就業成長，我們仍然能夠產生大量需求，而這都是不同需求驅動因素和就業的函數，對吧？今天，如果你看一下我們的份額——公寓正在從家庭結構中奪走，並且你從歷史上看，它是長期以來的兩倍。因此，這與單戶待售市場上發生的情況幾乎相同，由於缺乏可供購買的單戶住宅庫存，他們的市場份額至少翻了一番，甚至可能是正常水平的三倍。鎖定效應。

So you have an interesting situation here where we are continuing to benefit from the high cost of homeownership and continuing to benefit from in-migration, both international immigration and in-migration from other cities. So yes, there's a lot of units under construction, we know that. But the demand, it seems to be if these demand numbers running close to being right, is going to create, if you will, a soft landing for the supply. And that's kind of the -- that's the model that we put forth there.

因此，這裡有一個有趣的情況，我們繼續受益於高昂的住房擁有成本，並繼續受益於移民，包括國際移民和來自其他城市的移民。所以，是的，我們知道有很多單位正在建設中。但如果這些需求數字接近正確的話，需求似乎將創造（如果你願意的話）供應的軟著陸。這就是我們在那裡提出的模型。

And Alex (inaudible) talking that.

亞歷克斯（聽不清楚）正在談論這件事。

Yes, the 400,000 versus the 670,000.

是的，400,000 與 670,000。

No. 670,000 is not what the absorption is going to be, Keith, you have those absorption numbers...

67 萬不是吸收的結果，基思，你有那些吸收數字...

Yes, in Camden's markets, I just want to clarify -- yes, the completions that we have that we're modeling are 230,000 apartments across Camden's platform in 2024. And that number drops to about 200,000 in 2025. So just to make sure we're talking apples and apples versus national numbers. It's 230,000 in Camden's markets.

是的，在卡姆登的市場，我只是想澄清一下——是的，我們正在建模的2024年卡姆登平台上的竣工量為230,000套公寓。到2025年，這個數字將下降到約200,000套。所以只是為了確保我們我們談論的是蘋果和蘋果與全國的數字。卡姆登市場的銷售量為 230,000。

Yes. And that 600,000 coming in the pipeline doesn't all get delivered in 2024. A part of that is into 2025 as well.

是的。正在籌備中的 60 萬輛並沒有全部在 2024 年交付。其中一部分也將在 2025 年交付。

Next question will come from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將由富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼提出。

I just wanted to get your thoughts on timing of fundamentals. So just thinking about your guidance for new leases, slightly negative, but they were much worse in January on both effective and signed. And then if you look at your current occupancy versus your projected occupancy, it seems like an uptick. So do you think that -- when you think about the first half versus the back half, do you think it gets better into the back half, and that's where the pickup is? Or do you think that January was -- or January is kind of an anomaly and the numbers are just going to look better off the bat?

我只是想了解您對基本面時機的看法。因此，只要考慮一下您對新租約的指導，略有負面，但一月份的有效租約和已簽署租約都更糟。然後，如果你看看目前的入住率與預期的入住率，你會發現它似乎有所上升。那麼，您是否認為，當您考慮上半場與後半場時，您是否認為後半場會更好，而這就是皮卡所在的地方？還是你認為一月份是——或者一月份是一種反常現象，而且數字看起來會更好？

So the first thing I would tell you is if you look at our signed new leases in January -- excuse me, our signed blended leases in January are better than are effective, which is a leading indicator of improvements. What we are anticipating that we're going to have blended trade outs in the first quarter of about 0.2%. So a slight uptick from where we are today, but we are anticipating that occupancy is going to remain flat in the first quarter at 95%. And then the improvement comes throughout the year as, number one, we have better comps, which are very helpful for us. And then we also sort of hit our seasonal strong periods as we move from the second quarter into the third quarter.

因此，我要告訴您的第一件事是，如果您看看我們在一月份簽署的新租約，請原諒，我們在一月份簽署的混合租約比有效租約要好，這是改進的領先指標。我們預計第一季的混合交易將成長約 0.2%。因此，比今天的情況略有上升，但我們預計第一季的入住率將保持在 95% 的水平。然後全年都會有所改善，因為第一，我們有更好的比賽，這對我們非常有幫助。然後，當我們從第二季進入第三季時，我們也迎來了季節性的強勁時期。

And then you think it stays strong in 4Q or you (inaudible)?

然後你認為它在第四季度保持強勁還是你（聽不清楚）？

Yes, we've got a 4Q blended trade out of 1.6% and occupancy of about 95.2%. So I think that sort of follows the normal seasonal patterns that you would see.

是的，我們第四季的混合貿易率為 1.6%，入住率約為 95.2%。所以我認為這遵循了你會看到的正常季節性模式。

The next question will come from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默提出。

I just wanted to ask about external growth and acquisitions specifically, given where the balance sheet is, net debt to EBITDA at 4x at quarter end, I mean what would kind of be needed to happen further to be upside to the acquisition number? And you kind of step into that underlevered balance sheet?

我只是想具體詢問外部成長和收購，考慮到資產負債表的情況，季度末 EBITDA 的淨債務為 4 倍，我的意思是需要進一步發生什麼才能使收購數字上升？您是否進入了槓桿率不足的資產負債表？

So the primary thing that would have to happen on acquisitions is we have to see better going in yields, even though there's been a lot of -- transaction volumes are way down, there's still a huge bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers. There's just -- we just don't see -- we don't see value right now in the acquisition market versus other uses of capital. Now that's not to say that at some point, that doesn't change. I mean, obviously, there is with all of this new supply that's been built and primarily by the merchant build community, at some point, they need to move past the current crop of their development pipeline and kind of recharge their organizations. They are in the business of building apartments.

因此，收購中必須發生的首要事情是，我們必須看到收益率有所改善，儘管交易量大幅下降，但買家和賣家之間仍然存在巨大的買賣價差。只是——我們只是沒有看到——我們現在看不到收購市場相對於資本的其他用途的價值。但這並不是說在某個時候，這種情況不會改變。我的意思是，顯然，所有這些主要由商業構建社區建造的新供應，在某些時候，他們需要超越當前的開發管道，並為他們的組織充電。他們從事建造公寓的業務。

And so they all -- I think they all have way too much -- way more than they would normally care to have in terms of their development pipeline and holdings. So at some point, there's going to be a rationalization not just in the rental supply market between supply demand. But in the transaction market between a product that needs to find a permanent home, not in the merchant build community and people that are willing to provide that and have the capital to do it. So we are in the latter group, we just don't think we're there yet. And we just think being patient right now is the right strategy for the acquisition market.

因此，他們所有人——我認為他們都擁有太多——就其開發管道和持有量而言，遠遠超出了他們通常所希望擁有的。因此，在某個時候，不僅租賃供應市場的供需之間將會合理化。但在需要找到永久住所的產品之間的交易市場中，而不是在商人建立社區和願意提供該產品並有資本這樣做的人之間。所以我們屬於後一組，我們只是認為我們還沒有到達那裡。我們認為現在保持耐心是收購市場的正確策略。

NMHC just completed this week, and we had, of course, our huge team out there, and this is kind of the start of the sort of acquisition disposition dance. And people were -- compared to last year -- last year, I would categorize as during the headlights. And this year is a little less during the headlights and more cautious optimism because rates have come down some. And that's keeping some of the pressure off of people having to sell. But there's still just a massive bid-ask spread between people who want to buy versus people who want to sell.

NMHC 本週才剛完成，當然，我們有龐大的團隊，這只是某種收購處置之舞的開始。與去年相比，去年，我將人們歸類為在車頭燈下。今年，由於利率下降，人們的樂觀情緒有所減少，並且更加謹慎樂觀。這減輕了人們不得不出售的壓力。但想要購買的人和想要出售的人之間仍然存在著巨大的買賣價差。

And so the question will be how do the operating fundamentals look going forward? And what -- how do people feel about the world and what happens to rates? And I think people are more optimistic now that they can enter the acquisition market because last year was, I don't want to make a mistake what if the Fed does all these things now we're on a trajectory, it looks like to lower rates someday. And therefore, it's easier to sort of create a model that works financially today with a falling rate scenario in the next 2 or 3 years. But we're not there yet for sure in terms of that inflection point.

因此，問題是未來的營運基本面如何？人們對世界有何看法以及利率會發生什麼變化？我認為人們現在對進入收購市場更加樂觀，因為去年，我不想犯錯誤，如果聯準會採取所有這些措施，現在我們正處於軌道上，看起來會降低有一天利率。因此，在未來兩三年內利率下降的情況下，創建一個在當前財務上可行的模型會更容易。但就拐點而言，我們還不確定。

The next question will come from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題將由 BMO 資本市場的 John Kim 提出。

I wanted to ask about dispositions. I guess, this month, you're going to be selling Camden Vantage in Atlanta. Why this particular asset? It's not old. It's in one of your core Sunbelt markets. We calculated the cap rate north of 7%, so I didn't see my pricing was that great. But going forward, where else do you see disposition activity, will it be in California or focused on more of your older products?

我想問一下性格。我想，這個月，您將在亞特蘭大出售 Camden Vantage。為什麼有這個特殊資產？它並不老。它位於您的核心陽光地帶市場之一。我們計算出的資本化率在 7% 以上，所以我認為我的定價並沒有那麼好。但展望未來，您還會在哪裡看到處置活動，是在加州還是更專注於您的舊產品？

So I'll take the cap rate question first, and then I think maybe Keith can opine on the disposition choice. But for Camden Vantage, we are showing this at using actual CapEx and a management fee at a 5.75% cap rate, tax adjusted 5.65% cap rate and an AFFO yield before management fees of 6.09%. So definitely a lower yield than you're calculating.

因此，我將首先回答資本化率問題，然後我認為基斯也許可以對處置選擇發表意見。但對於 Camden Vantage，我們使用實際資本支出和管理費（上限率為 5.75%）、稅收調整上限率為 5.65%、管理費前 AFFO 收益率為 6.09% 來展示這一點。因此，收益率肯定比您計算的要低。

Yes. And on the dispose side, I mean we keep a list of and have ongoing conversations with our operating groups about if there were to be a sale out of one of your markets or submarkets, which assets would be in that conversation. And Vantage almost always came up as one that would be on the list of management's list of assets that they would rather someone else take care of. So I'll just leave it at that.

是的。在處置方面，我的意思是，我們保留一份清單，並與我們的營運團隊進行持續對話，討論是否要從您的某個市場或子市場出售哪些資產，哪些資產將包含在該對話中。 Vantage 幾乎總是出現在管理層的資產清單上，他們寧願由其他人來照顧。所以我就這樣吧。

Can I just follow up, what was the CapEx consumption on Vantage?

我可以跟進 Vantage 的資本支出消耗是多少嗎？

Yes. The CapEx on that one, I think it's probably around $1,800 a door, but I'll have to get back to you with the exact.

是的。我認為每扇門的資本支出可能約為 1,800 美元，但我必須向您回复確切的數字。

Next question will come from Rob Stevenson with Janney.

下一個問題將由羅布史蒂文森和珍妮提出。

Just on the dispositions, given how low your leverage is, the sizeable free cash flow and the minimal development spending remaining, how aggressive are you willing to be and sell more assets without corresponding acquisitions? Because it seems like given Keith's acquisition market commentary that acquisitions at best would be back half end loaded and may not come at all if the draft doesn't come.

就處置而言，考慮到您的槓桿率有多低、可觀的自由現金流和剩餘的最低開發支出，您願意在沒有相應收購的情況下積極出售更多資產嗎？因為考慮到基斯的收購市場評論，收購充其量只能是後半段加載，如果選秀不來，收購可能根本不會發生。

Yes. So our guidance assumes that we basically match dispositions and acquisitions. So we would look to be kind of net zero on the year. And the answer on the acquisitions really dispositions kind of gets back to when we find value and we believe that there's a real opportunity on acquisitions, then we would -- those clearly would be assets that we wanted to -- newer assets that we want to add to the portfolio, and we're always willing to improve the portfolio by selling a corresponding number of dollar amount of assets to fund that. So our working assumption and what's reflected in the guidance is, is that we're willing to be pretty aggressive when we see value in acquisitions, but not before then.

是的。因此，我們的指導假設我們基本上匹配處置和收購。因此，我們預計今年將實現淨零排放。關於收購的答案實際上可以追溯到當我們發現價值並且我們相信收購存在真正的機會時，那麼我們會——這些顯然是我們想要的資產——我們想要的新資產添加到投資組合中，我們總是願意透過出售相應數量的資產來為其提供資金來改善投資組合。因此，我們的工作假設以及指南中所反映的內容是，當我們看到收購的價值時，我們願意採取相當積極的行動，但在此之前不會。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a point of clarity. The mid-5 to low 6s that you guys talked about on development yields on a stabilized basis, was that for the 2 Charlotte ones that you might start this year? Or was that to stabilize yields on the 4 properties in the current development pipeline?

好的。這很有幫助。然後澄清一點。你們談論的穩定開發收益率中的 5 到低 6 是針對今年可能開始的 2 個夏洛特項目嗎？還是為了穩定目前開發案中 4 處房產的收益率？

Actually, the numbers are the same. The current development pipeline, we have some in the sort of the low to mid-6s and some in the sort of low 5s. The new developments in Charlotte, we're still working on what the model looks like, but we wouldn't start them if they were in that zone.

事實上，數字是相同的。目前的開發管道，我們有一些是低到中 6 的，有些是低 5 的。夏洛特的新開發項目，我們仍在研究模型的外觀，但如果它們位於該區域，我們就不會啟動它們。

Okay. And are you seeing any real relief on materials or labor on the development side, given the sort of pull back in other areas of development? Or is it still competitively priced versus the last couple of years?

好的。考慮到其他發展領域的倒退，您是否看到發展方面的材料或勞動力有真正的緩解？或者與過去幾年相比，它的價格仍然具有競爭力嗎？

Not yet. We haven't seen a big -- any big drops in cost. What's happened is the costs haven't been going up as much. I mean if you go back a couple of years, we were having like 1% to 1.5% inflation every single month. And so today, that's a little -- you don't have that part of the equation, but there hasn't been a material shift in pricing. And that's one of the challenges you have -- every merchant builder and Camden has is that if costs aren't coming down, but rents are flat and it's a very competitive market, you just -- it's really hard to justify new construction. That's why the starts are projected to fall to low 200,000s in 2025. It's just that a math doesn't really work well when rents are flat and construction costs haven't fallen.

還沒有。我們還沒有看到成本大幅下降。實際情況是成本並沒有增加那麼多。我的意思是，如果你回到幾年前，我們每個月的通膨率約為 1% 至 1.5%。所以今天，這有點——你沒有等式的這一部分，但定價並沒有發生重大變化。這是每個商業建築商和卡姆登面臨的挑戰之一，如果成本沒有下降，但租金持平，而且這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場，那麼你就很難證明新建築的合理性。這就是為什麼預計 2025 年開工率將降至 20 萬套。只是，當租金持平且建築成本沒有下降時，數學並不能真正發揮作用。

The next question will come from Wes Golladay with Baird.

下一個問題將由韋斯·戈拉迪和貝爾德提出。

The question on the development delivery forecast. Do you think this year is going to be more at risk to delays versus prior years? And are you seeing any of the developers going bust yet?

關於開發交付預測的問題。您認為與往年相比，今年的延誤風險會更大嗎？您是否看到任何開發商破產了？

We haven't seen anybody going bust yet. And I think that banks are definitely -- we hear a lot of anecdotal information about banks working very well with their borrowers today. The banks are much more -- they're well capitalized and the -- it's pretty common knowledge that in the next couple of years, the economic drop -- backdrop of operating fundamentals and lower interest rates are all going to help -- is going to help get some of these deals through that system. So in terms of that perspective, I don't think that you're going to have any -- there's not going to be any major bankruptcies for major defaults with merchant builders.

我們還沒有看到任何人破產。我認為銀行肯定是——我們聽到很多關於銀行與借款人合作得很好的軼事信息。銀行要多得多——它們資本充足，眾所周知，在未來幾年，經濟下滑——運營基本面和較低利率的背景都會有所幫助——正在發生變化。幫助透過該系統獲得其中一些交易。因此，從這個角度來看，我認為不會有任何商業建築商因重大違約而破產的情況。

They might be stressed to sell, but that doesn't mean there -- I think there's still equity in their deals, most of them anyway. In terms of delays, it's still hard to get a project to be delivered when you expect it to because so many people left the labor for us. We don't have excess labor supply. And so there's still a fair amount of risk in deliveries and when the delivery is going to come. And so that could actually be beneficial to the backdrop of our supply and demand equation. If starts do plummet or I think they will, but when you actually start seeing more and more of that, if we delay some of the '24 supply into '25 and some of the '25 into '26, that could be a lot smoother, softer landing for those markets given the demand side.

他們可能會面臨出售的壓力，但這並不意味著——我認為他們的交易中仍然有股本，無論如何，大多數都是這樣。就延遲而言，專案仍然很難按預期交付，因為太多人把勞動力留給了我們。我們沒有過剩的勞動力供應。因此，交付以及交付時間仍然存在相當大的風險。因此，這實際上可能有利於我們的供需方程式的背景。如果開工率確實直線下降，或者我認為它們會下降，但當你真正開始看到越來越多的情況時，如果我們將一些24 年的供應推遲到25 年，並​​將一些25 年的供應推遲到26 年，那可能會順利得多考慮到需求方面，這些市場將會軟著陸。

The next question will come from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的安東尼·保隆提出。

So it sounds like the stress is in the system, just isn't there to create a lot of opportunities right now. So wondering what it might take for you to use some capacity to buy back stock?

所以聽起來壓力是在系統中，但現在無法創造很多機會。那麼想知道您需要什麼才能使用一些產能來回購股票？

Yes. We've -- it's something that we look at constantly in terms of the opportunity set for allocation of capital. And in the past, we haven't been bashful about buying back stock when it made sense to do so. It's always a little bit of a challenge because of the rules and the trappings around buying stock in size and doing it in the windows that are available. But yes, it's something we've talked about. We've discussed and that we would pursue when the -- when we think the opportunity makes sense.

是的。我們一直在關注資本配置的機會。過去，當有必要時，我們不會羞於回購股票。由於大量購買股票並在可用的視窗中進行操作的規則和陷阱，這總是有點挑戰。但是，是的，這是我們討論過的事情。我們已經討論過，當我們認為機會有意義時，我們就會追求。

The next question will come from Omotayo Okusanya with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Omotayo Okusanya 提出。

Yes. Just thoughts on bad debt expense. The forecast was $24 million, 1.1% of total revenues doesn't really change that much from where you were at 4Q. So just wondering why we're not seeing incremental improvement kind of post all the moratoriums and improvements on the fraud management side.

是的。只是考慮壞帳費用。預測為 2,400 萬美元，佔總營收的 1.1%，與第四季相比並沒有太大變化。因此，我想知道為什麼我們沒有看到詐欺管理方面的所有暫停和改進的漸進式改進。

So I think we're sort of in unprecedented times right now where we're trying to figure out what is the new normal. And so at this point, what we're assuming is that the first and second quarter look a lot like the fourth quarter. And then we have some slight improvements as we go into the latter part of the year. Clearly, if we return to 50 basis points, which is what our historic norm had been before all of this, then we got some potential upside sort of running through the math. But at this point, we're just being patient and seeing how it plays out.

所以我認為我們現在正處於前所未有的時代，我們正在試圖弄清楚什麼是新常態。因此，在這一點上，我們假設第一季和第二季看起來很像第四季。進入今年下半年，我們有了一些細微的改進。顯然，如果我們回到 50 個基點，這是我們在這一切之前的歷史標準，那麼我們就會透過數學計算得到一些潛在的上行空間。但目前，我們只是保持耐心，看看結果如何。

The next question will come from Robyn Luu with Green Street.

下一個問題將由 Green Street 的 Robyn Luu 提出。

Alex, just a question for you. There was a decent step up in CapEx budget for the year, particularly in nonrecurring CapEx. Can you provide more detail as to what's driving the high spend?

亞歷克斯，只是問你一個問題。今年的資本支出預算有了相當大的成長，特別是在非經常性資本支出方面。您能否提供更多細節來說明是什麼推動了高支出？

Yes, absolutely. So we've got a couple of things that are running through the nonrecurring side. And they're mainly focused around a couple of communities we have that have some large exterior projects and foundational projects that we need to do. So that's what you've got going through the math.

是的，一點沒錯。因此，我們有一些涉及非經常性方面的事情。他們主要集中在我們擁有的幾個社區，這些社區有一些我們需要做的大型外部專案和基礎專案。這就是你需要進行的數學計算。

Do you expect that to extend to other properties in like '25 or '26 as well?

您是否預計這種情況也會擴展到 25 或 26 年等其他房產？

No, I don't think so. We go through and we look at all of our communities, really do a deep dive every year, as you would expect. And so these were a couple of communities that have been identified. As I said, they did have the foundational and exterior challenges that we knew we needed to fix. And so our intention is to get it done in 2024, and I wouldn't expect to see a number like this in '25.

不，我不這麼認為。正如您所期望的那樣，我們會仔細研究所有社區，每年都會進行深入研究。這些是已確定的幾個社區。正如我所說，他們確實面臨著我們知道需要解決的基本和外部挑戰。所以我們的目的是在 2024 年完成它，我不希望在 25 年看到這樣的數字。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Ric Campo for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給里克·坎波先生發表閉幕詞。請繼續，先生。

Great. Well, thank you for being on the call today. We appreciate the opportunity to go through what 2024 looks like to be an interesting year. So we'll see you in the conference circle and circuit here in the next month or 2. So take care, and thank you.

偉大的。好的，謝謝您今天接聽電話。我們很高興有機會回顧 2024 年看似有趣的一年。因此，我們將在下個月或兩個月內在會議圈和巡迴賽中見到您。所以請保重，謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。