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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的支持。
Welcome to Copa Holdings third quarter earnings call.
歡迎參加 Copa Holdings 第三季財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions).
(操作員指令)。
As a reminder, this call is being webcast and recorded on November 21, 2024.
提醒一下,本次通話將於 2024 年 11 月 21 日進行網路直播和錄音。
Now I will turn the conference call over to Daniel Tapia, Director of Investor Relations.
現在,我將電話會議轉給投資者關係總監 Daniel Tapia。
Sir, you may begin.
先生,您可以開始啦。
Daniel Tapia - Director of Investor Relations
Daniel Tapia - Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, Jonathan, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter earnings call.
謝謝喬納森,歡迎大家參加我們第三季的財報電話會議。
Joining us today are Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings; and Jose Montero, our CFO.
今天與我們一起參加的是 Copa Holdings 執行長 Pedro Heilbron;以及我們的財務長 Jose Montero。
First, Pedro will start by going over our third quarter highlights, followed by Jose, who will discuss our financial results.
首先,佩德羅 (Pedro) 將介紹我們第三季的亮點,然後何塞 (Jose) 將討論我們的財務表現。
Immediately after, we will end the call for questions from analysts.
隨後,我們將結束分析師的提問環節。
Copa Holdings' financial reports have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards.
Copa Holdings 的財務報告是根據國際財務報告準則編製的。
In today's call, we will discuss non-IFRS financial measures.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將討論非國際財務報告準則的財務指標。
A reconciliation of the non-IFRS to IFRS financial measures can be found in our earnings release, which has been posted on the company's website, copaair.com.
非國際財務報告準則與國際財務報告準則財務指標的對帳表可在我們的收益報告中找到,該報告已發佈在公司網站 copaair.com 上。
Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and/or intentions regarding future events and results.
我們今天的討論還將包含前瞻性陳述,不僅限於反映公司當前對未來事件和結果的信念、期望和/或意圖的歷史事實。
These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change.
這些前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果大不相同,並且基於可能變化的假設。
Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC.
我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度報告中討論了其中的許多內容。
Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heilbron.
現在我想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Pedro Heilbron 先生。
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Daniel.
謝謝你,丹尼爾。
Good morning to all, and thanks for participating in our third quarter earnings call.
大家早安,感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。
First, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to all our coworkers for their commitment to the company.
首先,我要向全體同事對公司的奉獻表示最誠摯的感謝。
Their dedication and hard work have been instrumental in keeping Copa in the forefront of Latin American aviation.
他們的奉獻和努力對於 Copa 保持拉丁美洲航空領域的領先地位起到了重要作用。
To them, as always, my highest regards and admiration.
一如既往,向他們致以最崇高的敬意和欽佩。
We're pleased to once again report solid financial results for the quarter, delivering a strong industry-leading operating margin of 20.3%.
我們很高興再次報告本季穩健的財務業績,實現了 20.3% 的強勁行業領先營業利潤率。
These financial results are in part driven by our disciplined approach to executing our business strategy including our permanent focus on cost efficiencies, which allow us to continue delivering industry-leading operating margins even with the softer yield environment we have observed over the past 12 months.
這些財務表現在一定程度上得益於我們執行業務策略的嚴謹方法,包括始終關注成本效率,這使我們能夠在過去12 個月觀察到的較弱收益率環境中繼續提供行業領先的營業利潤率。
Going forward, our focus on our business strategy and commitment to reducing unit costs remain central to achieving strong financial results and are key to further strengthening Copa's competitive position in Latin America.
展望未來,我們對業務策略的關注和對降低單位成本的承諾仍然是實現強勁財務業績的關鍵,也是進一步加強 Copa 在拉丁美洲的競爭地位的關鍵。
Among the main highlights for Q3, capacity increased by 9.5% year-over-year.
第三季的主要亮點是運力年增 9.5%。
Passenger traffic grew 7.6% compared to the same period in 2023.
與 2023 年同期相比,客運量增加了 7.6%。
Unit cost excluding fuel CASMx came in at $0.57, a 1.6% decrease compared to Q3 2023, mainly driven by lower sales and distribution costs.
不包括燃料的 CASMx 單位成本為 0.57 美元,與 2023 年第三季相比下降 1.6%,主要原因是銷售和分銷成本下降。
Passenger yields came in at $0.122 and lower year-over-year, mostly due to the last-minute suspension of flights between Panama and Venezuela at the end of July, weaker currencies in certain countries in Latin America and additional industry capacity in the region.
客運收益率為 0.122 美元,年比有所下降,主要原因是 7 月底巴拿馬與委內瑞拉之間的航班在最後一刻停飛,拉丁美洲部分國家貨幣貶值,以及該地區的行業運力增加。
And load factor came in at 86.2%, 1.6 percentage points lower year-over-year.
載客率為86.2%,較去年同期下降1.6個百分點。
As a result, unit revenues or RASM came in at $0.11, a 10.1% decrease compared to Q3 2023.
結果,單位收入或 RASM 為 0.11 美元,與 2023 年第三季相比下降 10.1%。
As mentioned before, we delivered an operating margin of 20.3%.
如前所述,我們的營業利益率為 20.3%。
Excluding the impact of the Panama Venezuela flight suspensions we estimate that we would have reported an operating margin of 21.2% for the quarter.
除去巴拿馬委內瑞拉航班暫停的影響,我們估計本季的營業利潤率將達到 21.2%。
On the operational front, Corporate delivered an on-time performance of 87.3%, a completion factor of 99.6% for the quarter, once again, positioning ourselves among the best in the industry.
在營運方面,該公司本季的準時率為 87.3%,完成率為 99.6%,再次躋身行業前列。
Regarding our fleet plan, due to delays in Boeing's delivery schedule, the arrival of our last aircraft for the year was postponed by a few months.
關於我們的機隊計劃,由於波音公司的交付時間表延遲,我們今年最後一架飛機的交付時間推遲了幾個月。
Nonetheless, we still expect to receive two 737 MAX 8 before year-end, one at the end of this month and one in December.
儘管如此,我們仍然預計將在年底前接收兩架 737 MAX 8,一架在本月底,一架在 12 月。
These two deliveries will bring our fleet to a total of 112 aircraft by the end of the year.
這兩架飛機的交付將使我們的機隊到年底總數達到 112 架。
Regarding 2025 deliveries, Boeing has updated its delivery schedule to account for the recent delays and we now plan to receive 11 Boeing 737 MAX 8 next year to end the year with a fleet of 123 aircraft.
關於 2025 年的交付,波音公司已更新了交付計劃,以解決最近的延誤問題,我們目前計劃明年接收 11 架波音 737 MAX 8,到年底機隊規模將達到 123 架飛機。
This delivery schedule has production ramp-up assumptions that will need to materialize so actual aircraft deliveries could change.
該交付計劃包含生產加速假設,該假設需要實現,因此實際的飛機交付量可能會發生變化。
As you saw in our earnings release issued yesterday, we issued preliminary guidance for 2025, in which we expect to grow our capacity within a range of 7% to 9%.
正如您在昨天發布的收益報告中看到的,我們發布了 2025 年的初步指引,其中我們預計產能將在 7% 至 9% 的範圍內增長。
Jose will provide more details regarding our preliminary guidance for 2025.
何塞將提供有關我們 2025 年初步指導的更多詳細資訊。
To summarize, we again delivered industry-leading financial results for the third quarter.
總而言之,我們第三季再次取得了業界領先的財務表現。
We continue to deliver on our cost execution, which remains key to the company strategy going forward.
我們將繼續履行我們的成本執行職責,這仍然是公司未來策略的關鍵。
We expect to grow capacity by high single digits in 2025, and plan to continue strengthening our hop of the Americas in Panama.
我們預計到 2025 年運力將成長高個位數,並計劃繼續加強我們在巴拿馬的美洲航線。
And as always, our team continues to deliver world-class operational results, while providing the consistent and reliable travel experience our passengers expect from us.
像往常一樣,我們的團隊繼續提供世界一流的營運成果,同時為乘客提供所期望的一致且可靠的旅行體驗。
Finally, we firmly believe that our business model remains as robust and relevant as ever and that our hop of the Americas in Panama is the best connecting hub in Latin America, making us the best positioned airline in our region to consistently deliver industry-leading results.
最後,我們堅信我們的商業模式仍然像以往一樣強勁和相關,我們在巴拿馬的美洲航線是拉丁美洲最好的中轉樞紐,使我們成為本地區最有實力的航空公司,能夠持續提供行業領先的業績。
Now I'll turn it over to Jose, who will go over our financial results in more detail.
現在我將把時間交給 Jose,他將更詳細地介紹我們的財務結果。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Pedro.
謝謝你,佩德羅。
Good morning, everyone.
大家早安。
Thanks for being with us today.
感謝您今天與我們同在。
I'd like to join Pedro in acknowledging our great team for all their efforts to deliver a world-class service to our passengers.
我想和佩德羅一起感謝我們優秀的團隊為我們的乘客提供世界一流的服務所做的一切努力。
I will start by going over our third quarter results.
我將首先介紹我們第三季的業績。
We reported a net profit for the quarter of $146 million or $3.50 per share.
我們報告本季淨利潤為 1.46 億美元,即每股 3.50 美元。
We reported a quarterly operating profit of $173.7 million and an operating margin of 20.3%.
我們報告季度營業利潤為 1.737 億美元,營業利潤率為 20.3%。
Capacity came in at $7.8 billion in available seat miles or 9.5% higher than in Q3 2023.
運力以可用座位英里計算為 78 億美元,比 2023 年第三季高出 9.5%。
Load factor came in at 86.2% for the quarter, a 1.6 percentage point decrease compared to the same period in 2023, and our passenger yields decreased by 8.7% to $0.122 As a result, unit revenues came in at $0.11 or 10.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2023.
本季載客率為 86.2%,比 2023 年同期下降 1.6 個百分點,客運收益率下降 8.7% 至 0.122 美元,因此單位收入為 0.11 美元,比 2022 年同期下降 10.1%。
Mainly driven by a lower fuel price, unit costs or CASM decreased to $0.087 or 6.2% lower year-over-year.
主要受燃料價格下跌影響,單位成本或CASM年減至0.087美元,即6.2%。
CASM, excluding fuel, came in at $0.57, a 1.6% decrease versus Q3 2023, mainly driven by lower sales and distribution costs as a result of higher penetration of both the direct sales and lower-cost NDC trial agency channels as well as our continued focus on maintaining the rest of our cost low.
不包括燃料的 CASM 為 0.57 美元,較 2023 年第三季下降 1.6%,主要原因是由於直銷和低成本 NDC 試驗代理通路的滲透率提高導致銷售和分銷成本下降,以及我們持續專注於保持其餘成本較低。
I'm going to spend some time now discussing our balance sheet and liquidity.
我現在要花一些時間討論我們的資產負債表和流動性。
As of the end of the third quarter, we had assets of close to $5.5 billion.
截至第三季末,我們的資產接近 55 億美元。
As to cash short long-term investments, we ended the quarter with over $1.3 billion, which represents 36% of our last 12 months' revenues.
至於現金短期長期投資,本季末我們的投資額超過 13 億美元,占我們過去 12 個月營收的 36%。
And in terms of debt, we ended the quarter with $1.86 billion in debt and lease liabilities and came in with an adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6 times.
在債務方面,本季末我們的債務和租賃負債為 18.6 億美元,調整後的淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 0.6 倍。
I'm pleased to report but our average cost of debt, which continues to be comprised solely of aircraft-related debt is currently in the range of 3.4%, with around 65% of our debt being fixed.
我很高興地報告,但我們的平均債務成本仍然僅由與飛機相關的債務組成,目前在 3.4% 的範圍內,其中約 65% 的債務是固定的。
Turning now to our fleet during the quarter.
現在來談談我們本季的船隊。
We received one Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, ending the third quarter with a total fleet of 110 aircraft comprised of 68 737-800s, 32 737 MAX 9, 9 737-700s and one 737 MAX 8.
我們接收了一架波音737 MAX 8 飛機,截至第三季末,機隊共擁有110 架飛機,包括68 架737-800 型飛機、32 架737 MAX 9 型飛機、9 架737-700 型飛機和一架737 MAX 8 型飛機。
These figures include one 737-800 freighter and the 9 737-800s operated by Wingo.
這些數字包括一架 737-800 貨機和 Wingo 營運的 9 架 737-800 飛機。
With regards to the return of value to our shareholders, I'm pleased to announce that the company will make its third dividend payment of the year of $1.61 per share on December 13, to all shareholders of record as of December 2.
關於向股東回報價值,我很高興地宣布,公司將於 12 月 13 日向截至 12 月 2 日登記在冊的所有股東派發今年第三次股息,每股 1.61 美元。
As to our outlook, we can provide the following guidance update for the full year 2024.
至於我們的展望,我們可以為 2024 年全年提供以下指導更新。
We expect to increase our capacity in ASMs by approximately 9% year-over-year, and we expect to deliver an operating margin within the range of 21% to 22%.
我們預計 ASM 產能將比去年同期增加約 9%,且預計營業利潤率將在 21% 至 22% 之間。
We are basing our outlook on the following assumptions: load factor of approximately 86%, unit earnings within the range of $0.114, CASMx fuel to be in the range of $0.58 and we're expecting an all-in fuel price of $2.67 per gallon.
我們的預測基於以下假設:載客率約為 86%、單位收益在 0.114 美元左右、CASMx 燃料價格在 0.58 美元左右,我們預計全包燃料價格為每加侖 2.67 美元。
In anticipation of 2025, based on the current and preliminary expectations of aircraft deliveries, we're projecting a year-over-year ASM growth of between 7% and 9%.
展望 2025 年,基於目前和初步的飛機交付預期,我們預計 ASM 將年增 7% 至 9%。
Additionally, we are projecting CASMx fuel at approximately $0.58. As you may recall, this is in line with the CASMx new target we shared with you back in our 2023 Investor Day.
此外,我們預計 CASMx 燃料價格約為 0.58 美元。您可能還記得,這與我們在 2023 年投資者日與您分享的 CASMx 新目標一致。
So in summary, we delivered great results for the third quarter.
總而言之,我們在第三季取得了出色的業績。
We expect to deliver once again leading operating margins for the full year 2024, with low unit costs continue to strengthen our solid financial position while providing outstanding return of value to our shareholders.
我們預計 2024 年全年將再次實現領先的營業利潤率,較低的單位成本將繼續鞏固我們穩固的財務狀況,同時為我們的股東提供出色的價值回報。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And with that, we'll open the call for some questions.
現在,我們將開始回答一些問題。
Operator
Operator
Savi Syth, Raymond James.
薩維·斯斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
If I might, on the revisions that you had for 2024.
如果可以的話,我想談談您對 2024 年的修改。
I was kind of curious if the unit revenue coming down a little bit is related to kind of (inaudible) flight suspensions taking longer or if you're seeing any other kind of weakness or softness in the market.
我有點好奇,單位收入下降是否與(聽不清楚)航班停飛時間延長有關,或者您是否看到市場上出現了其他類型的疲軟或疲軟現象。
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
This is Pedro here.
我是佩德羅。
So yes, in Panama Venezuela, it took us a while to redeploy those aircraft.
所以是的,在巴拿馬委內瑞拉,我們花了一段時間才重新部署這些飛機。
We were waiting for a restart date, which hasn't happened yet.
我們正在等待重啟的日期,但目前還沒有。
So we kept the plane plus it takes a while to start selling a flight and pull it up so we could not like redeploy those (inaudible) the following day.
因此,我們保留了飛機,而且需要一段時間才能開始銷售航班並將其撤出,因此我們無法在第二天重新部署這些(聽不清楚)。
That's been happening mostly throughout November, some in the December high season.
這種情況主要發生在整個 11 月,有時也發生在 12 月的旺季。
So I would say that probably the bigger quarter-over-quarter change.
因此,我認為季度環比變化可能更大。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
Well, in addition to that Savi, we did highlight the Brazil currency or kind of the Brazil revenues coming in slightly below our expectations.
嗯,除了薩維之外,我們確實強調了巴西貨幣或巴西的收入略低於我們的預期。
So that's also driving the adjustment that we made.
這也推動了我們所做的調整。
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Makes sense.
有道理。
And if I might just turn to your 2025 capacity view, we're kind of recognizing that that's preliminary.
如果我可以談談您對 2025 年容量的看法,我們認識到這只是初步的。
I think before you had wanted to grow low double digits.
我認為你之前曾想過要成長到兩位數以下。
I'm wondering does demand still support low double digits?
我想知道需求是否仍支援低兩位數?
And what's the risk that competitors backfill that?
競爭對手填補這一空缺的風險有多大?
And obviously, what I'm trying to get here is supply tight enough where maybe you're changing higher -- lower capacity for higher yield here?
顯然,我在這裡想要表達的是供應足夠緊張,也許你需要透過提高產能來降低產量以獲得更高的收益?
Or is there a risk that your competitors can backfill that?
或者是否有被你的競爭對手填補的風險?
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Right.
正確的。
So our ASM guidance is directly related to Boeing deliveries.
因此,我們的 ASM 指導與波音的交付直接相關。
So that's what's driving that.
這就是推動這現象的因素。
And as a matter of fact, we're actually staying with two 737-700s, which in our fleet plan three months ago, were supposed to leave by 2025.
事實上,我們仍保留兩架 737-700 型飛機,根據我們三個月前的機隊計劃,這兩架飛機原本應該在 2025 年退役。
So we're going to stay with those aircraft to make up for delayed Boeing deliveries.
因此,我們將繼續保留這些飛機,以彌補波音公司延遲交付的問題。
So that's driving our capacity.
這就推動了我們的能力。
We have demand to grow a little bit faster than that.
我們要求成長速度比這稍快。
However, less capacity is always good for yield.
然而,較少的產能對於產量來說總是有利的。
So we're comfortable.
因此我們很舒服。
We're fine.
我們很好。
We're growing between 7% and 9% next year.
明年我們的成長率將達到 7% 至 9%。
I think it's a good balance between keeping demand at strong, healthy levels, demand and supply, of course, and also further strengthening our hub in Panama.
我認為,這在保持需求強勁、健康水平、供需之間,以及進一步加強我們在巴拿馬的樞紐之間,取得了良好的平衡。
Operator
Operator
Michael Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的麥可‧林伯格。
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
I do have a couple here.
我這裡確實有幾個。
I guess for starters, I know one of your competitors in Colombia did indicate that the market was starting to stabilize somewhat.
首先,我知道你們在哥倫比亞的一位競爭對手確實表示市場正在開始趨於穩定。
And so I'm curious if you can just talk about the competitive situation there?
所以我很好奇您是否可以談談那裡的競爭情況?
Maybe you're seeing something similar or maybe not.
您或許看到了類似的東西,或許沒有。
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Not sure what they meant by that.
不確定他們那樣說是什麼意思。
But we tend to grow with demand and our potential to capture the piece of that demand that belongs or corresponds to us.
但我們往往會隨著需求和我們的潛力而成長,以獲取屬於或與我們相符的部分需求。
So we're very measured and pragmatic about how we grow and how we strengthen the hub.
因此,我們對如何發展和如何加強中心非常謹慎和務實。
And that's why one of the reasons, not the only reason why we were able to return strong operating margins and strong operating results, financial results over time.
這就是我們能夠隨著時間的推移恢復強勁的營業利潤率和強勁的經營業績和財務業績的原因之一,但不是唯一的原因。
I cannot say that a very competitor.
我不能說我是一個很有競爭力的人。
Some have been growing maybe a little bit too fast.
有些可能長有點太快了。
I won't mention names, but that stabilizing is probably good for the market, and it should mean I don't know, a better balance between demand and supply.
我不會提及名字,但這種穩定可能對市場有利,而且這應該意味著需求和供應之間會達到更好的平衡。
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then just a follow-up here.
然後這裡只是後續內容。
I thought it was interesting.
我認為這很有趣。
Normally, once in a while, we'll see Copa pull out of a market, right?
通常情況下,我們偶爾會看到 Copa 退出某個市場,對嗎?
The market isn't working and for a whole bunch of different reasons.
由於各種各樣的原因,市場無法正常運作。
It's kind of a one-off.
這是一種一次性現象。
I thought it was interesting that I think, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like you're actually going to be pulling out of two markets.
我認為這很有趣,如果我錯了你可以糾正我,但看起來你實際上要退出兩個市場。
Maybe you've already pulled out of two Mexican markets.
您或許已經退出了兩個墨西哥市場。
One is Tulum and the other (inaudible), the alternative Mexico City airport.
一個是圖盧姆,另一個是(聽不清楚),也就是墨西哥城機場。
Is that a Mexican FX macro reason?
這是墨西哥外匯宏觀原因嗎?
Is it -- I know Tulum, everybody rushed into the market at the same time and maybe that's an oversupply situation.
是的——我知道圖盧姆,每個人都同時湧入市場,也許這是供應過剩的情況。
What's behind those?
這些背後是什麼?
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, don't say that, Mike.
不,別這麼說,麥克。
No, we -- I would tell you, we're temporarily only pulling out (inaudible) for markets, actually, the two you mentioned, but also Armania in Colombia and Santiago, (inaudible) in the Dominican Republic.
不,我們——我想告訴你,我們暫時只是撤出(聽不清楚)市場,實際上,就是你提到的兩個市場,還有哥倫比亞的阿曼尼亞和多明尼加共和國的聖地亞哥(聽不清楚)。
So four markets, we're pulling out temporarily we should be back before the end of next year of 2025.
因此,我們暫時退出這四個市場,但應該會在 2025 年底前回歸。
And the reason we're doing that is also tied to aircraft deliveries.
我們這樣做的原因也與飛機交付有關。
So this is a -- these are four markets that have an alternative airport around the corner.
所以這是——這四個市場附近都有替代機場。
Less than 40 minutes or an average 40 minutes away, we have an alternative airport where we try with many daily frequencies.
距離我們一個備選機場不到 40 分鐘,或平均 40 分鐘,我們在那裡嘗試每日多次航班。
These are all less than daily markets.
這些都比日常市場少。
So given the delay in aircraft deliveries, there are other markets that do not have the luxury of having like (inaudible) 40 minutes from Armenia, in Mexico, the two airports are like 30 or 40 minutes apart.
因此,考慮到飛機交付的延遲,其他市場沒有從亞美尼亞飛到墨西哥的(聽不清楚)40 分鐘的路程,而這兩個機場相距 30 或 40 分鐘。
So we're going to deploy that capacity to other markets where we have strong demand and no -- not enough aircraft.
因此,我們將把該運力部署到其他需求強勁但飛機不足的市場。
Well, these other markets can be served from the nearby airport.
嗯,這些其他市場可以從附近的機場提供服務。
And then we should be back by the end of next year, we get the deliveries we're expecting to get.
然後我們應該在明年年底之前回來,以獲得我們期望的交付。
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
So Pedro, with the fact that you have to pull out of markets because you don't have airplane and you're getting delayed deliveries, how should we think about potential compensation?
那麼佩德羅,由於你沒有飛機並且交貨延遲,你不得不退出市場,我們應該如何考慮潛在的賠償?
Or how does it show up in maybe your CapEx this year and cash flow?
或者它如何體現在您今年的資本支出和現金流中?
And I don't know if Jose answers that because as I see it, not only you have a special relationship with Boeing, you are Boeing's beachhead in Latin America to the extent that I think the last deal that was signed, we had the President of the United States and the President of Colombia with you to sign that deal.
我不知道何塞是否回答了這個問題,因為在我看來,你們不僅與波音公司有著特殊的關係,而且你們還是波音公司在拉丁美洲的灘頭陣地,我認為,在上次簽署的協議中,我們有總統美國和哥倫比亞總統將與您一起簽署協議。
So I would think that you would be getting some form of compensation, and it's going to just show up and reduce CapEx.
所以我認為你會得到某種形式的補償,它會出現並減少資本支出。
Any color on that?
有顏色嗎?
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Michael.
謝謝,麥可。
I'll let Jose answer the question.
我請 Jose 來回答這個問題。
But this particular moves that we're talking about, we're doing it to strengthen our bottom line and to better serve our whole network.
但我們正在談論的這一具體舉措是為了加強我們的底線並更好地服務我們的整個網路。
So there won't be a compensation for those specific actions general with how that's working.
因此,按照一般的運作方式,這些特定的行為不會得到補償。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Mike, going back to your comment, yeah, we were very happy and proud to have that signing ceremony was with the President of the US and at that moment here in Panama City.
麥克,回到你的評論,是的,我們非常高興和自豪能與美國總統一起在巴拿馬城舉行簽字儀式。
But the -- yeah, there is, of course, some contractual relief associated with this situation, but it's -- our -- the nature of our contracts with Boeing is confidential.
但是 — 是的,當然,這種情況會有一些合約救濟,但我們與波音公司的合約性質是保密的。
But yeah, it would flow through CapEx to a lesser amount of CapEx going forward.
但是的,它將透過資本支出流向未來更少的資本支出。
Operator
Operator
Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.
Duane Pfennigwerth,Evercore ISI。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
So just on the guidance, you're going to generate 21%, 22% EBIT margins this year. which includes the impact of the MAX 9 grounding earlier in the year and then obviously, the close-in cuts that you had to make to Venezuela.
因此,僅根據指引,您今年的息稅前利潤率將達到 21% 至 22%。其中包括今年早些時候 MAX 9 停飛的影響,以及顯然對委內瑞拉做出的近距離削減。
So can you just remind us what do you think those two items cost you and just remind us of the sizing of those two impacts combined?
那麼您能否提醒我們您認為這兩件物品為您帶來了多少成本,並提醒我們這兩件物品合起來的影響有多大?
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Well, the Venezuela impact was probably, I would say, 0.5 point and the
嗯,我認為委內瑞拉的影響可能是 0.5 個百分點,
--
--
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
For the full year.
全年。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
For the full year and the impact of the Boeing grounding, I think we disclosed it to be in order of about $40 million when it occurred.
對於波音停飛事件發生時,我們揭露的全年影響約為 4,000 萬美元。
So that's kind of the kind of the full year impact of this.
這就是這種現象對全年造成的影響。
I think if you can do the math.
我認為如果你能算一下的話。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Okay, that's great.
好的,太好了。
And then
進而
--.
--.
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah -- Duane.
是的——杜安。
No, what's going to add is that there are so many moving parts in our industry.
不,需要補充的是,我們的行業中有太多的活動部件。
Yeah, it's not like -- you know that's not simple math.
是的,這不是——你知道這不是簡單的數學。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Well, yes, you have to argue that our 21% to 22% results for 2024 include those two aspects, yes, certainly.
嗯,是的,你必須爭辯說,我們 2024 年 21% 到 22% 的業績包括這兩個方面,是的,當然。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Yeah.
是的。
I mean it does feel like as we think about next year, there are some periods that have some pretty easy compares, but we'll see.
我的意思是,當我們展望明年時,確實覺得有些時期比較容易比較,但我們拭目以待。
A minor question for you.
問您一個小問題。
On the interest expense, you called out $4 million related to the adjustment of a discount rate for the calculation of leased aircraft that you're going to return.
關於利息費用,您指出有 400 萬美元與調整您將要退還的租賃飛機計算的折現率有關。
Is that a onetimer here in the fourth quarter?
這是第四季的一次性事件嗎?
Or is that something that will kind of stay in the interest expense on a go-forward basis?
或者這會在未來的利息支出中保留下來?
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
It is a yearly -- periodic adjustment that gets performed related to where interest rates lie.
這是根據利率水準每年進行的定期調整。
It's just a very arcane IFRS requirement where you basically are truing up the return conditions in the balance sheet with the risk-free rate basically that we have.
這只是一個非常神秘的 IFRS 要求,基本上就是用我們擁有的無風險利率來校正資產負債表中的報酬條件。
So that liability that shows something -- the balance sheet shows the true value of it at the moment where the balance sheet was established.
因此,資產負債表顯示的是負債在建立資產負債表時的真實價值。
So therefore, on a say, on a lowering interest rate environment that essentially you have to make an adjustment and -- so in this case, it's a bad guy, let's say, when the interest come down, there is a higher charge related to that.
因此,在利率降低的環境下,你必須做出調整,在這種情況下,這是一個壞消息,比如說,當利率下降時,與此相關的費用會更高。
So I mean you could argue that it will kind of from a modeling perspective, will vary depending on where as interest rates fluctuate, it could fluctuate as well.
所以我的意思是,你可以爭辯說,從建模的角度來看,它會隨著利率波動而變化,它也會波動。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then maybe just to sneak one last one in.
然後也許只是偷偷地進去最後一個。
A couple of the US carriers have been able to kind of look a little bit further out beyond the fourth quarter into early 2025.
一些美國航空公司已經能夠將目光投向第四季之後的 2025 年初。
The implied fourth quarter here, is that indicative of trends that you see into early first quarter?
這裡隱含的第四季是否預示著您看到的第一季初的趨勢?
And listen, I understand you don't typically comment on two quarters out, but it just feels like the yield environment feels a little bit different in January, February than what we're seeing here in the fourth quarter.
聽著,我知道您通常不會對未來兩個季度發表評論,但感覺一月和二月的收益率環境與第四季度的情況略有不同。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
I think doing -- again, as you just answer kind of the question in the sense that we don't provide a multi-quarter guidance and we haven't established guidance for full year 2025.
我認為——再說一次,正如你剛才回答這個問題時所說的那樣,我們不提供多季度指導,也沒有製定 2025 年全年指導。
But I think on a, let's say, sequential basis, you could argue that comps are sort of similar for Q1 versus what's going on in Q4 in terms of -- on the year-over-year comps, let's say.
但我認為,從連續性角度來看,您可以認為第一季的業績與第四季度的業績類似,就同比來看。
Operator
Operator
Stephen Trent, Citi.
花旗銀行的史蒂芬‧特倫特 (Stephen Trent)。
Stephen Trent - Analyst
Stephen Trent - Analyst
The first one, I recall in the second quarter, that you guys had made an adjustment to a provision for unredeemed ticket revenue that had a little bit of a real impact on the margins.
第一個問題,我記得在第二季度,你們對未兌換票務收入的準備金進行了調整,這對利潤率產生了一點實際影響。
Could you refresh my memory if there was any other adjustment this quarter?
您能否提醒我本季是否還有其他調整?
Or will you still have essentially the same policy on that provision as we move forward?
或者,隨著我們繼續前進,您對該條款的政策基本上是否保持不變?
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
The last quarter, we called out a kind of a $0.5 impact.
上個季度,我們預計影響約為 0.5 美元。
And the reason why we called it out was because it was a catch-up we just adjusted the factor that we use for our redeem during the second quarter, and we decided to be conservative and do we did it in a way that it captured the entirety of our assumptions or estimates for 2024.
我們之所以提出這一點,是因為這是一個追趕,我們只是調整了第二季度用於贖回的因素,我們決定採取保守的做法,我們這樣做是為了捕捉我們對2024 年的全部假設或估計。
So it was kind of like a catch-up that occurred during Q2.
因此,這有點像第二季度發生的追趕。
And so there was no other items related to that in Q3. -- Accounting entry related to the quarter, nothing beyond that.
因此第三季沒有其他與此相關的項目。 -- 與季度相關的會計分錄,僅此而已。
What I meant to say, Stephen.
我的意思是,史蒂芬。
Stephen Trent - Analyst
Stephen Trent - Analyst
Appreciate that, Jose.
非常感謝,何塞。
And just one other quick one.
還有一個很快的。
When we think about all of the -- I mean, not just you, everybody, the supply chain challenges with the OEMs.
當我們考慮所有這些——我的意思是,不僅僅是你們,而是每個人——OEM 所面臨的供應鏈挑戰。
Could you give us a little bit of your high-level thinking long term, how you think about optimizing maybe your owned aircraft versus leased aircraft if you the supply chain stuff has made you think differently about the long-term planning?
您能否向我們介紹一下您的長期高層想法,如果供應鏈的事情讓您對長期規劃有不同的看法,您如何考慮優化自有飛機與租賃飛機?
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
That's Pedro here, Steve.
那是佩德羅,史蒂夫。
Yeah, that's a complicated matter because it's not like we have that many, many options.
是的,這是一個複雜的問題,因為我們沒有那麼多選擇。
So -- we have bought some aircraft off lease.
所以——我們已經購買了一些租賃的飛機。
We're staying with some [700s] we were expecting to return.
我們和一些期待回來的 [700] 人待在一起。
And we have even bought spare engines ahead of time.
我們甚至提前購買了備用引擎。
We're very, very proactive in securing parts in the marketplace, even though we have contracts with OEMs that are supposed to cover us -- so we've gone like beyond the call of duty to make sure that we have the stock.
儘管我們與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 簽訂了合同,這些合同應該涵蓋我們,但我們非常積極地確保市場上的零件供應,因此,我們盡了超出職責範圍的努力,以確保我們有庫存。
And we're even doing maintenance work even for engines that program work where we had to send the engines to the MROs in the past, and we're doing that with the support of GE.
我們甚至還對那些過去必須將引擎送到 MRO 進行編程工作的引擎進行維護工作,而且我們是在 GE 的支持下進行的。
We're doing that in our maintenance base in Panama also to speed up turnaround times and have more engines in stock.
我們在巴拿馬維護基地也這樣做,以加快週轉時間並儲備更多引擎。
So we're doing a, I would say, a gigantic effort versus the easier times before.
因此,我想說,與以前比較輕鬆的時候相比,我們正在付出巨大的努力。
And we've been able to manage.
我們能夠做到這一點。
So we have not affected our operations for lack of parts or lack of engines and aircraft.
所以我們的運作並沒有因為缺少零件或缺少引擎和飛機而受到影響。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
And I would say that the moves that Pedro just alluded to, like the buying of leases and the extent -- deciding to maintain the two 737, 700s, et cetera, just a testament of the flexibility that we have in our fleet plan as well.
我想說的是,佩德羅剛才提到的舉措,例如購買租賃,以及決定保留兩架 737、700 等,都證明了我們機隊計畫的靈活性。
So we continue executing on the flexibility that we have in our fleet plan.
因此,我們將繼續發揮我們機隊計劃的靈活性。
Stephen Trent - Analyst
Stephen Trent - Analyst
Really appreciate that, gentlemen.
真的很感激,先生們。
And Jose, I'm not sure if this is your last results call, but if it is really deeply appreciate it.
何塞,我不確定這是否是你最後一次打電話報告結果,但如果是的話,我真的很感激。
I'll miss all our interactions.
我會懷念我們所有的互動。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you very much, Steve.
非常感謝,史蒂夫。
You have brought it here to my eye here.
你已將它帶到我的眼前。
So thanks a lot, and thank you for the partnership.
非常感謝,也感謝你們的合作。
Operator
Operator
Jens Spiess, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的 Jens Spiess。
Jens Spiess - Analyst
Jens Spiess - Analyst
I just want to ask on the Venezuela situation.
我只想問一下委內瑞拉的狀況。
You already mentioned about the impact for the full year.
您已經提到了全年的影響。
I just wanted to clarify.
我只是想澄清一下。
Was it solely concentrated on the third quarter?
它是否僅僅集中在第三季?
Or is part of the impact also going to be seen in the fourth quarter of this year?
或者部分影響也會在今年第四季顯現?
And maybe also on like capital allocation, how are you thinking about it going forward?
或許還涉及資本配置,您對未來有什麼想法?
I mean you have extremely solid balance sheet maybe lower CapEx due to the delay.
我的意思是,你的資產負債表非常穩健,也許會因為延遲而降低資本支出。
So are you maybe contemplating some buybacks seeing where the share price is currently trading at?
那麼,根據目前的股價情況,您是否會考慮回購一些股票?
Any thoughts on that would be very useful.
對此的任何想法都會非常有用。
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'll answer the first question and let Jose take the more difficult second question.
我來回答第一個問題,讓 Jose 回答更困難的第二個問題。
As always, yeah, there will be an impact on Venezuela in the fourth quarter, which would be slightly above half of what was the impact in the third quarter.
像往常一樣,是的,這將對委內瑞拉在第四季度產生影響,其影響將略高於第三季度影響的一半。
And that's because we've had time to redeploy some of the aircraft and generate new bookings in other markets.
這是因為我們有時間重新部署部分飛機並在其他市場獲得新的預訂。
So that's the difference.
這就是差別所在。
But it will still be a little bit over half of the 0.9 impact we saw in the third quarter.
但它仍將略高於我們在第三季看到的 0.9 影響的一半。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Jens, the -- in terms of capital allocation, the first thing that we have to say is that we have a very generous dividend policy, 40% of prior year's adjusted net income, which has a very strong dividend yield right now.
是的,Jens,就資本配置而言,我們首先要說的是,我們的股息政策非常慷慨,上一年調整後淨收入的 40% 用於股息分配,目前的股息收益率非常高。
So that's something that is of importance and focus for our company.
所以這對我們公司來說是一件重要且重點關注的事情。
We do have a buyback program, a $200 million approved buyback program, which we've executed about 1/4 of it so far.
我們確實有一個回購計劃,一個價值 2 億美元的已批准回購計劃,到目前為止我們已經執行了其中的四分之一。
But in terms of capital allocation, I would say that over the next 1.5 years to 2 years is going to be the majority of the bulk, let's say, of the order that we have with Boeing in terms of aircraft.
但就資本配置而言,我想說,在未來 1.5 到 2 年內,我們與波音公司的飛機訂單的大部分將集中在這一部分。
So (inaudible) for 2025, our expectation CapEx in total is going to be approaching $900 million.
所以(聽不清楚)到 2025 年,我們預計總資本支出將接近 9 億美元。
That cash CapEx is going to be about $350 million.
該現金資本支出約為 3.5 億美元。
So there is going to be some CapEx requirements during the year 2025 that we are sort of preparing for, let's say, right now.
因此,2025 年期間將會有一些資本支出需求,我們現在正在為此做準備。
Operator
Operator
Alberto Valerio, UBS.
瑞銀的 Alberto Valerio。
Alberto Valerio - Analyst
Alberto Valerio - Analyst
My first one is about the forward guidance, preliminary guidance to 2025.
我的第一個問題是關於前瞻性指引,即 2025 年的初步指引。
If you take the current oil curve or jet curve and flat yields for next year, you will be reaching something close to 23% margins.
如果採用目前的石油曲線或噴射機曲線以及明年的持平收益率,則利潤率將接近 23%。
My question is, would that margin be recurring and feasible for the future is something that changed from the past?
我的問題是,這種利潤是否會重複並且在未來可行,這與過去相比是否有所改變?
And my second one, if I may, about Argentina.
我的第二個問題,如果可以的話,是關於阿根廷的。
You guys had a big presence in the country in the past.
你們過去在該國有著很大的影響力。
Are you looking to going back there after this change that we have seen in the economy dynamic?
在我們看到經濟動態發生這種變化之後,您是否希望回到那裡?
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I'll start with the second one on Argentina.
我先談第二個問題,關於阿根廷。
And I'm not sure if I got the full question, but Argentina remains a strong market for us.
我不確定我是否理解了全部問題,但阿根廷仍然是我們強大的市場。
And we have good coverage.
我們的報道很充分。
We right to about five cities, and we have a number of daily frequencies to Buenos Aires.
我們直接飛往大約五個城市,每天都有多班航班飛往布宜諾斯艾利斯。
And we're, again, as I mentioned at the beginning, we try to deploy the capacity that makes sense for us.
正如我在開始時提到的那樣,我們再次嘗試部署對我們有意義的容量。
And we think that's what we have in Argentina, and we're very happy with our flights with Argentina in spite of any other issues that they might be going through.
我們認為這就是我們在阿根廷所擁有的情況,儘管他們可能遇到其他問題,但我們對與阿根廷的航班感到非常滿意。
So that's working well in that market.
因此這在那個市場運作良好。
We -- in terms of the first question, I'll let Jose back me up, we are not issuing guidance for 2025, but I'll just say that we have shown in the past that we can consistently deliver industry-leading margins or at least leading margins in our part of the world and we're confident that we have the structure in place to continue delivering those results.
關於第一個問題,我讓 Jose 支持我,我們不會發布 2025 年的指引,但我只想說,我們過去已經證明,我們可以持續提供行業領先的利潤率,或者至少在我們這個地區我們的利潤率是領先的,我們有信心,我們有能力繼續實現這些成果。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
And as Pedro mentioned, we'll provide our full year guidance in February.
正如佩德羅所說,我們將在二月提供全年指導。
Yeah.
是的。
And the other aspect is that we are with our lowest or our lower unit cost base right now that we've been able to achieve over the last several years. we are simply able to deliver leading results and not be as dependent on the fluctuations and the market dynamics.
另一方面,我們目前的單位成本基礎處於最低水平,這是我們過去幾年來能夠實現的。我們能夠提供領先的結果,而不受波動和市場動態的依賴。
So we're just simply fundamentally more efficient and able to sustain very, very good margins with our low cost base.
因此,我們從根本上來說更加高效,並且能夠以低成本維持非常非常好的利潤率。
Operator
Operator
Rogerio Araujo, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Rogerio Araujo。
Rogerio Araujo - Analyst
Rogerio Araujo - Analyst
I have one follow-up on yields.
我對收益率有一個後續問題。
If I may.
如果可以的話。
First one confirmation.
第一次確認。
Is the guidance imply a full year of restrictions in flights to Venezuela?
該指導是否意味著對飛往委內瑞拉的航班實施整整一年的限制?
And any expectations of operations resuming there?
對那裡恢復營運有什麼預期嗎?
And the second part of the question is regarding the year-over-year comparison of yields.
問題的第二部分是關於收益率的年比比較。
So all else being constant, if you could help us to think a little bit about how the comparable basis is in first half of '24 in second half.
在其他所有條件不變的情況下,如果您能幫助我們稍微思考一下 2024 年上半年和下半年的可比較基礎如何。
So we had currencies devaluating in the region.
因此該地區的貨幣正在貶值。
And we also had Venezuela stop operations at the end of July.
委內瑞拉也在七月底停止了營運。
So any item that we should take into consideration and what is the expectation for this comparison basis of yields in '24?
那麼,我們應該考慮哪些因素?
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
So the guidance that we have issued for full year 2024 includes the Venezuela impact for the moment or for the period that we have been affected, which is effective the end of July of this year.
因此,我們發布的 2024 年全年指引包括了委內瑞拉目前的影響或受影響期間的影響,該指引於今年 7 月底生效。
So that's what it's embedded in there.
這就是它嵌入其中的內容。
Remember that a portion of that capacity was not deployed immediately.
請記住,部分容量並未立即部署。
So therefore, it had an impact and also the flow of the passengers on this.
因此,它對乘客流量產生了影響。
And in terms of 2025, bringing forward the 2025 guidance, we haven't issued any revenue guidance for the year is just a preliminary capacity guidance and CASMx fuel guidance.
就 2025 年而言,我們提前了 2025 年的指引,我們尚未發布當年的任何收入指引,只有初步的產能指引和 CASMx 燃料指引。
So with the capacity guidance assumes that your (inaudible) returns or the flights or the aircraft or the capacity are deployed to other destinations with network.
因此,容量指導假設您的(聽不清楚)回程或航班或飛機或容量已部署到具有網路的其他目的地。
So it's from the standpoint of capacity and deployment, there is, let's say, it's embedded in regardless of what occurs with the aircraft, it would be embedded within that capacity.
因此,從容量和部署的角度來看,可以說,無論飛機發生什麼情況,它都會嵌入該容量中。
And in terms of yields for the full year, I would say that for full year 2024, returning back to 2024, the yields in the second half of the year have also been affected by fluctuations that you described, specifically in Brazil, actually, we highlight Brazil because there was a drop in the real during the latter part of the second quarter that influenced the sales on this in the third quarter.
就全年收益率而言,我想說,2024 年全年,回到 2024 年,下半年的收益率也受到了你所描述的波動的影響,特別是在巴西,實際上,我們重點關注巴西,因為第二季後半段雷亞爾下跌,影響了第三季的銷售。
And that's also, as I discussed earlier in one of your earlier questions.
正如我之前在您之前的一個問題中討論過的那樣。
Part of the reason why the adjustment from $0.115 to $0.14 in the fourth quarter is also related to the Brazil -- the continued Brazil impact.b
第四季從0.115美元調整至0.14美元的部分原因也與巴西有關——持續的巴西影響。
Rogerio Araujo - Analyst
Rogerio Araujo - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Perfect.
完美的。
And if I may, a follow-up on Venezuela.
如果可以的話,我想跟進一下委內瑞拉的問題。
Is there any kind of upside if operations resume there in terms of (inaudible) this trend?
就(聽不清楚)這種趨勢而言,如果恢復運營,會有什麼好處嗎?
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, it's hard to know.
是的,很難知道。
It's a unpredictable situation.
這是一個難以預測的情況。
I'm confident that we will restart flights.
我相信我們將會恢復航班。
We were flying to five cities, over 40 lights per week.
我們每週飛往 5 個城市,飛行超過 40 趟。
We will restart at some point and maybe not this year, hard to predict.
我們將在某個時候重新開始,但也許不是今年,很難預測。
I would guess that at some point in 2025, but saying if it's in the first quarter or the second quarter, it's hard to tell right now.
我猜測是在 2025 年的某個時候,但具體是在第一季度還是第二季度,現在很難說。
Operator
Operator
Daniel McKenzie, Seaport Global.
麥肯齊 (Daniel McKenzie),Seaport Global。
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
A couple of questions here.
這裡有幾個問題。
Following up or circling back on the CapEx that jumps to $900 million in '25.
跟進或回顧一下 25 年躍升至 9 億美元的資本支出。
So for those investors that are investing a little longer term, how do we think about the drop-down in '26 and '27?
那麼對於那些進行較長期投資的投資者來說,我們如何看待 26 年和 27 年的下跌?
And then just related to that, I'm just wondering if there's an appetite to add more aircraft to Wingo?
然後與此相關的是,我只是想知道是否有興趣為 Wingo 添加更多飛機?
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
So in '26, I would say it's similar.
因此在 26 年,我會說情況類似。
It's similar in size.
大小也差不多。
And of course, this is all depending on what the delivery stream is from Boeing to us because essentially all the CapEx is aircraft.
當然,這一切都取決於波音公司向我們提供的交付流程,因為基本上所有的資本支出都是飛機。
So I would say, but I would say preliminarily that in '26, it will be very similar to the '25 CapEx.
所以我想說,但我想初步說,在'26 年,它將與'25 年的資本支出非常相似。
And then '27 probably a higher -- I mean it depends on ultimately what the delivery stream is.
然後 '27 可能會更高 - 我的意思是這最終取決於交付流程是什麼。
I would say, for preliminary modeling perspective for '26 and '27, you could probably model it in a similar level.
我想說,從 26 年和 27 年的初步建模角度來看,您可能可以在類似的層面上對其進行建模。
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And in terms of Wingo, in terms of Wingo, as we get more deliveries next year, will give Wingo at least one aircraft, one 800 next year, it's in our fleet plan that we published, if I'm not mistaken.
就 Wingo 而言,隨著我們明年獲得更多交付,明年將為 Wingo 提供至少一架飛機,一架 800,如果我沒記錯的話,它在我們發布的機隊計劃中。
And they could probably use a few more, but we're all tight aircraft right now.
他們可能還需要更多,但我們現在的飛機都很緊張。
But they'll get at least one next year.
但他們明年至少會得到一個。
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Yeah.
是的。
Very good.
非常好。
Second question here.
這是第二個問題。
I'm wondering if you can unpack 2025 growth?
我想知道您是否可以解析 2025 年的成長?
So premium seat growth versus mainline seat growth?
那麼,高端航線座位數成長與主航線座位數成長相比如何呢?
And just given the questions on FX earlier, I'm just wondering how that's shaping your thoughts about where you want to grow.
鑑於之前關於外匯的問題,我只是想知道這對您關於想要發展的方向有何影響。
So more US line or perhaps more smaller markets that are underserved?
那麼更多的是美國線路還是更多的是服務不足的小市場?
I'm just trying to get a sense of how the macro backdrop is shaping how you're thinking about the business and growth.
我只是想要了解宏觀背景如何影響你對業務和成長的看法。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Dan, a couple of things.
是的,丹,有幾件事。
I'll give you some color on the breakdown of the growth.
我將向您介紹一些增長的具體細節。
First of all, the majority of the growth for next year is going to be a full year effect of service that we started during 2024.
首先,明年的大部分成長將來自於我們在 2024 年開始的服務的全年效應。
About 2/3 of the growth is going to be a full year effect.
約有2/3的成長將產生全年效應。
And then the remainder is probably going to be, I don't know, 1/4 of the remainder is going to be -- or 25% of growth is going to be frequencies to markets that we already serve.
然後剩下的可能就是,我不知道,剩下的 1/4 將是——或者 25% 的增長將是我們已經服務的市場的頻率。
And then a minor portion would be gauge.
然後將一小部分進行測量。
We're getting additional -- well, actually, it's a full year effect of the nine that we're getting towards the latter part of this year or -- that we had earlier in the year, the full year, effectively the last several MAX 9s, we have 32 9s that are basically and the remainder of the aircraft, there's going to be 8.
我們得到了額外的——實際上,這是我們在今年下半年或今年早些時候獲得的九個全年效應,實際上是過去幾年MAX 9 中,我們基本上有32 架9,其餘飛機將有8 架。
So that's basically that.
基本上就是這樣。
There's also the fact that we are adding seats into our 800s and densifying that's another component of the growth for next year.
事實上,我們正在將座位數增加到 800 個,並提高密度,這是明年成長的另一個組成部分。
That will also help our CASMx in 2025.
這也將對我們 2025 年的 CASMx 有所幫助。
So that's a gauge.
這是一個衡量標準。
So -- so new destination is going to be a minor portion of the growth, just low single digit over growth is going to be destinations.
所以,新目的地只佔成長的一小部分,目的地數量僅佔成長的個位數的低值。
Now so where we put the growth.
那麼,我們將成長放在哪裡呢?
It's -- we have a lot of options and flexibility.
是的——我們有很多選擇和靈活性。
But I would say, usually, you have to start from a premise that the how meets balance.
但我想說,通常情況下,你必須從一個前提開始,那就是如何滿足平衡。
So you're always going to balance out, North of Panama versus South of Panama.
因此,你總是要保持巴拿馬北部與巴拿馬南部之間的平衡。
So you always want to balance the growth.
所以你總是希望平衡成長。
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And of course, profitability or potential profitability has a heavy weight on our decisions.
當然,獲利能力或潛在獲利能力對我們的決策有很大影響。
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
That's a given.
這是理所當然的。
Well, if I could squeeze one final one in here, and that's just given the growth of capacity constraints at Tocumen Airport, how easy is it for other airlines to get access to gates?
好吧,如果我可以在這裡再問最後一個問題,考慮到托庫門機場的容量限制的增長,其他航空公司是否能輕易獲得登機口?
And do you have the gates that you need to execute on the growth?
您是否擁有實現成長所需的大門?
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
Tocumen is an open airport.
托庫門是一個開放的機場。
It's not slot controlled, it's not gate controlled, and it does not -- there's nothing about Tocumen that stops anyone from coming in.
它不受時隙控制,也不受門控制,托庫門沒有任何東西可以阻止任何人進入。
As we continue growing, the airport is already working on plans to expand its capacity, which will be needed in between two and three years from now.
隨著我們的不斷發展,機場已經在製定擴大容量的計劃,這將在未來兩到三年內實現。
And there's a lot of low-hanging fruit that they will implement, take advantage of to increase its capacity.
他們將實施許多唾手可得的成果,利用它們來提高其容量。
So there are actually no restrictions.
因此實際上沒有限制。
There might be some moments during the day where the airport might be tight in slots and gates, but that will be improved also.
白天的某些時段,機場可能會出現時刻表和登機口緊張的情況,但這種情況也會得到改善。
Operator
Operator
Savi Syth, Raymond James.
薩維·斯斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Just two quick ones.
只需簡單兩點。
First, just on the unit cost guide for 2025, that's impressive given that you are slowing growth.
首先,僅就 2025 年的單位成本指南而言,考慮到成長正在放緩,這令人印象深刻。
It sounds like, Jose, you mentioned densification is helping, though I think you're already expecting that.
聽起來,何塞,你提到緻密化是有幫助的,但我想你已經預料到了這一點。
I was curious if you could talk about like what's helping you generate that good unit cost execution?
我很好奇,您能否談談什麼幫助您實現了良好的單位成本執行?
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
Well, first of all, yeah, we are facing like everybody else, there are inflationary pressures out there.
嗯,首先,是的,我們和其他人一樣面臨通膨壓力。
Airport fees, overflights, airspace, costs, et cetera, those are items that put pressure on our costs. (inaudible) for the densification of the 800 that will be an ongoing project throughout 2025.
機場費、飛越費、空域費等等,這些都是對我們的成本帶來壓力的項目。 (聽不清楚)800 的密度增加將是整個 2025 年的持續計畫。
And just as a reminder, we're bringing the seat count on 48 737-800s that Copa Airlines operates from average 160 to 166 seats.
需要提醒的是,我們將巴拿馬航空營運的 48 架 737-800 飛機的座位數從平均 160 個增加到 166 個。
So adding (inaudible) role.
因此增加了(聽不清楚)角色。
In addition to that, it's growth, first of all, the growth helps and the overall growth in capacity that we're guiding to.
除此之外,首先是成長,成長有助於我們引導的整體產能成長。
There is still a tapering off of a sales and distribution efforts and initiatives that we're pursuing.
我們正在進行的銷售和分銷工作和計劃仍在逐漸減少。
So there's a little bit of that.
所以有一點這樣的情況。
And maintenance also has some opportunities that we're pursuing for next year that should allow us to keep -- remind you that we achieved our $0.58 CASM target a year early.
維護也有一些機會,我們正在為明年尋求這些機會,這將使我們能夠保持 - 提醒您,我們提前一年實現了 0.58 美元的 CASM 目標。
But I think we're hopefully keeping it for next year as well.
但我認為我們也希望明年能夠維持這種狀態。
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
I appreciate that.
我很感激。
And -- and then maybe just a final question on -- as you look to transition out, any update on the CFO search?
然後——也許只是最後一個問題——當您考慮離職時,財務長搜尋有任何進展嗎?
And any other kind of thoughts on the management makeup?
對於管理組成還有其他想法嗎?
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Let me just need to say something -- this is like my last question ever.
我只想說一句——這是我的最後一個問題。
So I start for a second.
因此我開始了第二步。
I was not going to get away without that question.
如果不問這個問題,我是不會逃避的。
We're really doing high-5s here.
我們在這裡真的在擊掌。
But of course, that was not.
但當然,事實並非如此。
We're prepared.
我們準備好了。
So well -- and I'll take actually (inaudible) more questions, but I'll take this opportunity to recognize Jose his last earnings call.
好吧——我實際上會回答更多問題(聽不清楚),但我將藉此機會向 Jose 介紹他的最後一次財報電話會議。
He's been with Copa over 30 years.
他已在 Copa 工作了 30 多年。
He started in our operations control center then was planning on alliances then for over 10 years.
他從我們的營運控制中心開始工作,然後負責聯盟規劃,為期超過 10 年。
He's done a great job as CFO of the company with a ton of accomplishments most during really challenging years where we were able always to keep our open margins in double digits, with the exception of course, like the heart of the pandemic 2020.
作為公司的財務官,他做得非常出色,取得了許多成就,其中大部分是在真正充滿挑戰的年份裡取得的,我們始終能夠將營業利潤率保持在兩位數,當然,除了2020 年疫情最嚴重的時候。
But -- and a lot of work goes into those results.
但是──為了取得這些成果我們付出了很多努力。
A lot of initiatives, cost initiatives, financing initiatives, et cetera.
許多舉措、成本舉措、融資舉措等等。
So Jose has done an outstanding job, and he has now decided to retire.
所以穆里尼奧的表現非常出色,現在他決定退休。
So he's earned the right, and we are actively searching for his replacement, internally and externally.
因此,他贏得了這個權利,我們正在積極地從內到外尋找他的繼任者。
We're not ready to announce anything yet, but we're actively working on that.
我們尚未準備好宣布任何消息,但我們正在積極努力。
And we also have contingency plans if we were not ready by January 1.
如果我們到 1 月 1 日還沒準備好,我們也有應急計畫。
So there's nothing really new to announce right now in that regard.
因此,目前在這方面還沒有什麼新消息可以宣布。
Yeah, go ahead.
嗯,請說。
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer
No, thank you for that.
不,謝謝你。
But the reality is that there's a team here.
但事實是這裡有一支團隊。
It's not like -- it's not because of any particular person.
這並不是——這不是因為任何特定的人。
So there's a team ongoing that does everything.
因此有一個團隊在負責做所有事情。
And so I think that you have to have the confidence that no one is indispensable in this particular case.
因此我認為你必須有信心,在這個特殊情況下,沒有人是不可或缺的。
And I think we have a very strong team behind in the financial areas and overall and management that will go forward.
我認為我們在財務領域和整體管理方面擁有一支非常強大的團隊。
So that's actually part of the most important things that I think about.
所以這實際上是我想到最重要的事情的一部分。
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Of course.
當然。
So we're not dropping the ball at all.
所以我們並沒有失誤。
If we did, it would not look good on Jose.
如果我們這麼做了,對何塞來說就不是好事了。
So that's not going to happen.
所以這種事不會發生。
We're not going to drop the ball.
我們不會失敗的。
We have a strong team.
我們擁有一支強大的團隊。
So that won't be a weak point.
所以這不會成為一個弱點。
And then in terms of other management changes, we did bring in, and we issued a press release.
然後,我們確實引入了其他管理變革,並發布了新聞稿。
We created a new executive VP position.
我們設立了新的執行副總裁職位。
The person that's fitting that position is already here and his name is Robert Carey.
適合這個職位的人已經在這裡了,他的名字是羅伯特凱裡 (Robert Carey)。
He comes from
他來自
[Will Air].
[威爾艾爾]。
He was the presented with (inaudible) before that, you were the CCO at ECJ.
在此之前,他曾擔任(聽不清楚)歐洲法院的首席協調官。
Before that, he was with Mackenzie for many years in the aviation sector, working a lot in Latin America.
在此之前,他在麥肯齊的航空領域工作多年,在拉丁美洲做了許多工作。
So I plan to share some of my workload with Robert.
所以我計劃與羅伯特分享一些我的工作量。
It will allow me to not have to concentrate on so many things, every single minute of the day.
它使我不需要每天每分鐘都專注於那麼多的事情。
So he'll help me there and I'll be able to focus on many other things.
所以他會在那裡幫助我,這樣我就能專注於許多其他事情。
So we're basically strengthening the company, strengthening the management team to be even stronger overall going forward.
因此,我們基本上是在加強公司、加強管理團隊,以便在未來整體上變得更強大。
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
And I can appreciate those are big shoes to fill, so taking some time makes sense.
我能夠理解這是一個艱鉅的任務,因此花一些時間是合理的。
I appreciate the response.
我很感謝您的回覆。
Operator
Operator
This does conclude the question-and-answer session.
問答環節到此結束。
I'd now like to hand the program back to Pedro for any further remarks.
現在我想將節目單交還給佩德羅,以便他可以做出進一步的評論。
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay.
好的。
Thank you, sir.
謝謝您,先生。
So thank you all, again, thanks for participating in this earnings call.
所以,再次感謝大家參加本次財報電話會議。
Again, thanks to Jose for his great work at Copa.
再次感謝穆里尼奧在南美盃的出色表現。
This is his last call.
這是他的最後一通電話。
I know he's going to miss them.
我知道他將會想念他們。
We know that.
我們知道這一點。
So maybe he'll make a cameo in the next one.
所以也許他會在下一部電影中客串。
But seriously, thank you all, really.
但說實話,真的非常感謝你們所有人。
Thank you for your questions.
感謝您的提問。
Thank you for your participation, and your support, as always.
感謝您一如既往的參與和支持。
We'll keep on working really hard, like we always do, to continue delivering strong margin and industry-leading results under any circumstance.
我們將一如既往地繼續努力工作,在任何情況下繼續提供強勁的利潤和行業領先的業績。
So thank you, and have a great day.
謝謝你,祝你有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation.
女士們、先生們,感謝大家的參與。
That concludes the presentation.
本次演講到此結束。
You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.
現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。