Copa Holdings SA (CPA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

    女士們先生們,謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Copa Holdings 第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)。謹此提醒,本次電話會議將於 2024 年 11 月 21 日進行網路直播和錄音。先生,您可以開始了。

  • Welcome to Copa Holdings third quarter earnings call.

  • (Operator Instructions).

  • As a reminder, this call is being webcast and recorded on November 21, 2024.

  • Now I will turn the conference call over to Daniel Tapia, Director of Investor Relations.

  • Sir, you may begin.

  • Daniel Tapia - Director of Investor Relations

    Daniel Tapia - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Jonathan, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter earnings call.

    謝謝喬納森,歡迎大家參加我們第三季的財報電話會議。今天加入我們的是 Copa Holdings 執行長 Pedro Heilbron;和我們的財務長何塞蒙特羅。

  • Joining us today are Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings; and Jose Montero, our CFO.

  • First, Pedro will start by going over our third quarter highlights, followed by Jose, who will discuss our financial results.

    首先,佩德羅將首先回顧我們第三季的亮點,然後何塞將討論我們的財務表現。緊接著,我們將結束分析師提問。 Copa Holdings 的財務報告是根據國際財務報告準則編製的。

  • Immediately after, we will end the call for questions from analysts.

  • Copa Holdings' financial reports have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards.

  • In today's call, we will discuss non-IFRS financial measures.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將討論非國際財務報告準則的財務指標。非國際財務報告準則與國際財務報告準則財務指標的調節可以在我們的收益報告中找到,該報告已發佈在公司網站 copaair.com 上。

  • A reconciliation of the non-IFRS to IFRS financial measures can be found in our earnings release, which has been posted on the company's website, copaair.com.

  • Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and/or intentions regarding future events and results.

    我們今天的討論還將包含前瞻性陳述,不僅限於反映公司當前對未來事件和結果的信念、期望和/或意圖的歷史事實。這些前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異,並且基於可能變化的假設。其中許多內容在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度報告中進行了討論。

  • These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change.

  • Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC.

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heilbron.

    現在我想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Pedro Heilbron 先生。

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Daniel.

    謝謝你,丹尼爾。大家早安,感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。

  • Good morning to all, and thanks for participating in our third quarter earnings call.

  • First, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to all our coworkers for their commitment to the company.

    首先,我謹向所有同事對公司的付出表示誠摯的謝意。他們的奉獻精神和辛勤工作使 Copa 保持在拉丁美洲航空業的前沿。一如既往,我向他們致以最崇高的敬意和欽佩。

  • Their dedication and hard work have been instrumental in keeping Copa in the forefront of Latin American aviation.

  • To them, as always, my highest regards and admiration.

  • We're pleased to once again report solid financial results for the quarter, delivering a strong industry-leading operating margin of 20.3%.

    我們很高興再次報告本季穩健的財務業績,營業利潤率達到 20.3%,行業領先。這些財務表現在一定程度上是由我們嚴格執行業務策略的方法所推動的,包括我們對成本效率的永久關注,這使我們能夠繼續提供行業領先的營業利潤率,即使在過去12 個月我們觀察到的殖利率環境疲軟的情況下。

  • These financial results are in part driven by our disciplined approach to executing our business strategy including our permanent focus on cost efficiencies, which allow us to continue delivering industry-leading operating margins even with the softer yield environment we have observed over the past 12 months.

  • Going forward, our focus on our business strategy and commitment to reducing unit costs remain central to achieving strong financial results and are key to further strengthening Copa's competitive position in Latin America.

    展望未來,我們對業務策略的關注和對降低單位成本的承諾仍然是實現強勁財務業績的核心,也是進一步加強 Copa 在拉丁美洲競爭地位的關鍵。

  • Among the main highlights for Q3, capacity increased by 9.5% year-over-year.

    第三季的主要亮點之一是運力年增 9.5%。與 2023 年同期相比,客運量成長了 7.6%。

  • Passenger traffic grew 7.6% compared to the same period in 2023.

  • Unit cost excluding fuel CASMx came in at $0.57, a 1.6% decrease compared to Q3 2023, mainly driven by lower sales and distribution costs.

  • Passenger yields came in at $0.122 and lower year-over-year, mostly due to the last-minute suspension of flights between Panama and Venezuela at the end of July, weaker currencies in certain countries in Latin America and additional industry capacity in the region.

    客運收益率為 0.122 美元,年減,主要原因是 7 月底巴拿馬和委內瑞拉之間的航班​​在最後一刻暫停、拉丁美洲某些國家的貨幣疲軟以及該地區的工業產能增加。載客率為86.2%,較去年同期下降1.6個百分點。因此,單位收入或 RASM 為 0.11 美元,與 2023 年第三季相比下降 10.1%。

  • And load factor came in at 86.2%, 1.6 percentage points lower year-over-year.

  • As a result, unit revenues or RASM came in at $0.11, a 10.1% decrease compared to Q3 2023.

  • As mentioned before, we delivered an operating margin of 20.3%.

    如前所述,我們的營業利益率為 20.3%。排除巴拿馬和委內瑞拉航班停飛的影響,我們估計本季的營業利潤率為 21.2%。在營運方面,Corporate 本季的準時率達到 87.3%,完成率為 99.6%,再次躋身業界最佳之列。

  • Excluding the impact of the Panama Venezuela flight suspensions we estimate that we would have reported an operating margin of 21.2% for the quarter.

  • On the operational front, Corporate delivered an on-time performance of 87.3%, a completion factor of 99.6% for the quarter, once again, positioning ourselves among the best in the industry.

  • Regarding our fleet plan, due to delays in Boeing's delivery schedule, the arrival of our last aircraft for the year was postponed by a few months.

    關於我們的機隊計劃,由於波音交貨時間表的延誤,我們今年最後一架飛機的抵達推遲了幾個月。儘管如此,我們仍然預計在年底前收到兩架 737 MAX 8,一架在本月底,一架在 12 月。到今年年底,這兩架飛機的交付將使我們的機隊總數達到 112 架。

  • Nonetheless, we still expect to receive two 737 MAX 8 before year-end, one at the end of this month and one in December.

  • These two deliveries will bring our fleet to a total of 112 aircraft by the end of the year.

  • Regarding 2025 deliveries, Boeing has updated its delivery schedule to account for the recent delays and we now plan to receive 11 Boeing 737 MAX 8 next year to end the year with a fleet of 123 aircraft.

    關於 2025 年的交付,波音更新了交付時間表,以應對最近的延誤,我們現在計劃明年接收 11 架波音 737 MAX 8,到年底擁有 123 架飛機的機隊。此交付計畫包含產量增加的假設,需要實現這些假設,因此實際的飛機交付量可能會改變。

  • This delivery schedule has production ramp-up assumptions that will need to materialize so actual aircraft deliveries could change.

  • As you saw in our earnings release issued yesterday, we issued preliminary guidance for 2025, in which we expect to grow our capacity within a range of 7% to 9%.

    正如您在昨天發布的財報中看到的那樣,我們發布了 2025 年的初步指導,預計產能成長在 7% 至 9% 的範圍內。 Jose 將提供更多有關我們 2025 年初步指導的詳細資訊。

  • Jose will provide more details regarding our preliminary guidance for 2025.

  • To summarize, we again delivered industry-leading financial results for the third quarter.

    總而言之,我們再次交付了業界領先的第三季財務表現。我們繼續履行成本執行,這仍然是公司未來策略的關鍵。我們預計到 2025 年產能將實現高個位數成長,並計劃繼續加強我們在巴拿馬的美洲航線。像往常一樣,我們的團隊繼續提供世界一流的營運成果,同時提供乘客期望從我們這裡獲得的一致且可靠的旅行體驗。

  • We continue to deliver on our cost execution, which remains key to the company strategy going forward.

  • We expect to grow capacity by high single digits in 2025, and plan to continue strengthening our hop of the Americas in Panama.

  • And as always, our team continues to deliver world-class operational results, while providing the consistent and reliable travel experience our passengers expect from us.

  • Finally, we firmly believe that our business model remains as robust and relevant as ever and that our hop of the Americas in Panama is the best connecting hub in Latin America, making us the best positioned airline in our region to consistently deliver industry-leading results.

    最後,我們堅信,我們的業務模式仍然一如既往地穩健和相關,並且我們在巴拿馬的美洲航線是拉丁美洲最好的中轉樞紐,使我們成為本地區處於最佳位置的航空公司,能夠始終如一地提供業界領先的業績。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Jose, who will go over our financial results in more detail.

    現在我將把它交給何塞,他將更詳細地審查我們的財務表現。

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Pedro.

    謝謝你,佩德羅。大家早安。感謝您今天和我們在一起。我想與佩德羅一起感謝我們偉大的團隊為向乘客提供世界一流的服務所做的一切努力。我先回顧一下我們第三季的業績。

  • Good morning, everyone.

  • Thanks for being with us today.

  • I'd like to join Pedro in acknowledging our great team for all their efforts to deliver a world-class service to our passengers.

  • I will start by going over our third quarter results.

  • We reported a net profit for the quarter of $146 million or $3.50 per share.

    我們報告本季淨利潤為 1.46 億美元,即每股 3.50 美元。我們公佈的季度營業利潤為 1.737 億美元,營業利益率為 20.3%。可用座位里程的運力達到 78 億美元,比 2023 年第三季成長 9.5%。

  • We reported a quarterly operating profit of $173.7 million and an operating margin of 20.3%.

  • Capacity came in at $7.8 billion in available seat miles or 9.5% higher than in Q3 2023.

  • Load factor came in at 86.2% for the quarter, a 1.6 percentage point decrease compared to the same period in 2023, and our passenger yields decreased by 8.7% to $0.122 As a result, unit revenues came in at $0.11 or 10.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2023.

    本季載客率為 86.2%,與 2023 年同期相比下降 1.6 個百分點,乘客收益下降 8.7%,至 0.122 美元。季度。

  • Mainly driven by a lower fuel price, unit costs or CASM decreased to $0.087 or 6.2% lower year-over-year.

    主要由於燃料價格下降,單位成本或 CASM 下降至 0.087 美元,年減 6.2%。 CASM(不包括燃料)的收入為 0.57 美元,較 2023 年第三季下降 1.6%,這主要是由於直銷和低成本 NDC 試驗代理通路的滲透率提高以及我們持續的專注於保持我們其餘的成本較低。

  • CASM, excluding fuel, came in at $0.57, a 1.6% decrease versus Q3 2023, mainly driven by lower sales and distribution costs as a result of higher penetration of both the direct sales and lower-cost NDC trial agency channels as well as our continued focus on maintaining the rest of our cost low.

  • I'm going to spend some time now discussing our balance sheet and liquidity.

    我現在將花一些時間討論我們的資產負債表和流動性。截至第三季末,我們的資產接近55億美元。至於現金短期長期投資,本季末我們的營收超過 13 億美元,占我們過去 12 個月營收的 36%。就債務而言,本季末我們的債務和租賃負債為 18.6 億美元,調整後的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 0.6 倍。

  • As of the end of the third quarter, we had assets of close to $5.5 billion.

  • As to cash short long-term investments, we ended the quarter with over $1.3 billion, which represents 36% of our last 12 months' revenues.

  • And in terms of debt, we ended the quarter with $1.86 billion in debt and lease liabilities and came in with an adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6 times.

  • I'm pleased to report but our average cost of debt, which continues to be comprised solely of aircraft-related debt is currently in the range of 3.4%, with around 65% of our debt being fixed.

    我很高興地向您報告,我們的平均債務成本目前仍僅由飛機相關債務組成,約為 3.4%,其中約 65% 的債務已修復。

  • Turning now to our fleet during the quarter.

    現在轉向我們本季的機隊。我們接收了一架波音737 MAX 8 飛機,截至第三季度,機隊共有110 架飛機,其中包括68 737-800、32 737 MAX 9、9 737-700 和一架737 MAX 8。架737-800 貨機以及由 Wingo 營運的 9 737-800 架。

  • We received one Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, ending the third quarter with a total fleet of 110 aircraft comprised of 68 737-800s, 32 737 MAX 9, 9 737-700s and one 737 MAX 8.

  • These figures include one 737-800 freighter and the 9 737-800s operated by Wingo.

  • With regards to the return of value to our shareholders, I'm pleased to announce that the company will make its third dividend payment of the year of $1.61 per share on December 13, to all shareholders of record as of December 2.

    關於股東價值回報,我很高興地宣布,公司將於 12 月 13 日向截至 12 月 2 日在冊的所有股東支付本年度第三次股息,每股 1.61 美元。

  • As to our outlook, we can provide the following guidance update for the full year 2024.

    至於我們的展望,我們可以為 2024 年全年提供以下指導更新。

  • We expect to increase our capacity in ASMs by approximately 9% year-over-year, and we expect to deliver an operating margin within the range of 21% to 22%.

  • We are basing our outlook on the following assumptions: load factor of approximately 86%, unit earnings within the range of $0.114, CASMx fuel to be in the range of $0.58 and we're expecting an all-in fuel price of $2.67 per gallon.

    我們的展望基於以下假設:載客率約為 86%,單位收益在 0.114 美元範圍內,CASMx 燃油在 0.58 美元範圍內,我們預計總燃油價格為每加侖 2.67 美元。

  • In anticipation of 2025, based on the current and preliminary expectations of aircraft deliveries, we're projecting a year-over-year ASM growth of between 7% and 9%.

    展望 2025 年,根據當前和初步的飛機交付預期,我們預計 ASM 年成長率在 7% 至 9% 之間。此外,我們預計 CASMx 燃油價格約為 0.58 美元。您可能還記得,這與我們在 2023 年投資者日與您分享的 CASMx 新目標一致。

  • Additionally, we are projecting CASMx fuel at approximately $0.58. As you may recall, this is in line with the CASMx new target we shared with you back in our 2023 Investor Day.

  • So in summary, we delivered great results for the third quarter.

    總而言之,我們在第三季取得了出色的業績。我們預計 2024 年全年將再次實現領先的營業利潤率,較低的單位成本將繼續增強我們穩固的財務狀況,同時為股東提供出色的價值回報。

  • We expect to deliver once again leading operating margins for the full year 2024, with low unit costs continue to strengthen our solid financial position while providing outstanding return of value to our shareholders.

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。接下來,我們將開始詢問一些問題。

  • And with that, we'll open the call for some questions.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Savi Syth, Raymond James.

    薩維·賽斯,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • If I might, on the revisions that you had for 2024.

    如果可以的話,關於您對 2024 年的修訂。

  • I was kind of curious if the unit revenue coming down a little bit is related to kind of (inaudible) flight suspensions taking longer or if you're seeing any other kind of weakness or softness in the market.

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah.

    是的。這是佩德羅。所以,是的,在巴拿馬委內瑞拉,我們花了一段時間才重新部署這些飛機。我們正在等待重新啟動的日期,但這還沒有發生。因此,我們保留了這架飛機,而且需要一段時間才能開始出售航班並將其拉起,因此我們不能在第二天重新部署這些飛機(聽不清楚)。

  • This is Pedro here.

  • So yes, in Panama Venezuela, it took us a while to redeploy those aircraft.

  • We were waiting for a restart date, which hasn't happened yet.

  • So we kept the plane plus it takes a while to start selling a flight and pull it up so we could not like redeploy those (inaudible) the following day.

  • That's been happening mostly throughout November, some in the December high season.

    這種情況大部分發生在整個 11 月,也有一些發生在 12 月的旺季。所以我想說,季度環比變化可能更大。

  • So I would say that probably the bigger quarter-over-quarter change.

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。好吧,除了薩維之外,我們還強調了巴西貨幣或巴西收入略低於我們的預期。這也推動了我們所做的調整。

  • Well, in addition to that Savi, we did highlight the Brazil currency or kind of the Brazil revenues coming in slightly below our expectations.

  • So that's also driving the adjustment that we made.

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • Makes sense.

    有道理。如果我可以談談您對 2025 年產能的看法,我們承認這只是初步的。我想之前你曾經想成長低兩位數。我想知道需求是否仍然支援低兩位數?

  • And if I might just turn to your 2025 capacity view, we're kind of recognizing that that's preliminary.

  • I think before you had wanted to grow low double digits.

  • I'm wondering does demand still support low double digits?

  • And what's the risk that competitors backfill that?

    競爭對手回填的風險是什麼?顯然,我想要達到的目標是供應足夠緊張,也許你正在改變更高的——更低的產能以獲得更高的產量?或者您的競爭對手是否有回填該內容的風險?

  • And obviously, what I'm trying to get here is supply tight enough where maybe you're changing higher -- lower capacity for higher yield here?

  • Or is there a risk that your competitors can backfill that?

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Right.

    正確的。因此,我們的 ASM 指南與波音交付直接相關。這就是推動這一趨勢的原因。事實上,我們實際上保留了兩架 737-700 飛機,在三個月前我們的機隊計劃中,它們本應在 2025 年起飛。交貨。這正在推動我們的產能。

  • So our ASM guidance is directly related to Boeing deliveries.

  • So that's what's driving that.

  • And as a matter of fact, we're actually staying with two 737-700s, which in our fleet plan three months ago, were supposed to leave by 2025.

  • So we're going to stay with those aircraft to make up for delayed Boeing deliveries.

  • So that's driving our capacity.

  • We have demand to grow a little bit faster than that.

    我們需要比這更快的成長速度。然而,較小的容量總是有利於產量。所以我們很舒服。我們很好。明年我們的成長率將在 7% 到 9% 之間。我認為,當然,在將需求保持在強勁、健康的水平、需求和供應之間,以及進一步加強我們在巴拿馬的樞紐方面,這是一個很好的平衡。

  • However, less capacity is always good for yield.

  • So we're comfortable.

  • We're fine.

  • We're growing between 7% and 9% next year.

  • I think it's a good balance between keeping demand at strong, healthy levels, demand and supply, of course, and also further strengthening our hub in Panama.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

    麥可‧林伯格,德意志銀行。

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • I do have a couple here.

    我這裡確實有一對。我想首先,我知道你們在哥倫比亞的一位競爭對手確實表明市場開始有所穩定。所以我很好奇你能否談談那裡的競爭情況?也許您看到了類似的東西,也可能沒有看到類似的東西。

  • I guess for starters, I know one of your competitors in Colombia did indicate that the market was starting to stabilize somewhat.

  • And so I'm curious if you can just talk about the competitive situation there?

  • Maybe you're seeing something similar or maybe not.

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Not sure what they meant by that.

    不知道他們的意思是什麼。但我們往往會隨著需求和我們捕捉屬於或對應於我們的需求的潛力而成長。因此,我們對於如何發展和加強中心非常謹慎和務實。

  • But we tend to grow with demand and our potential to capture the piece of that demand that belongs or corresponds to us.

  • So we're very measured and pragmatic about how we grow and how we strengthen the hub.

  • And that's why one of the reasons, not the only reason why we were able to return strong operating margins and strong operating results, financial results over time.

    這就是為什麼我們能夠隨著時間的推移獲得強勁的營業利潤率和強勁的經營業績、財務業績的原因之一,而不是唯一的原因。我不能說這是一個很有競爭力的人。有些成長可能有點太快了。我不會提及名字,但穩定可能對市場有利,這應該意味著我不知道,需求和供應之間更好的平衡。

  • I cannot say that a very competitor.

  • Some have been growing maybe a little bit too fast.

  • I won't mention names, but that stabilizing is probably good for the market, and it should mean I don't know, a better balance between demand and supply.

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。然後這裡只是後續行動。我覺得這很有趣。通常情況下,我們偶爾會看到 Copa 退出市場,對嗎?由於各種不同的原因,市場不起作用。這有點一次性。我覺得這很有趣,如果我錯了,你可以糾正我,但看起來你實際上要退出兩個市場。

  • And then just a follow-up here.

  • I thought it was interesting.

  • Normally, once in a while, we'll see Copa pull out of a market, right?

  • The market isn't working and for a whole bunch of different reasons.

  • It's kind of a one-off.

  • I thought it was interesting that I think, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like you're actually going to be pulling out of two markets.

  • Maybe you've already pulled out of two Mexican markets.

    也許您已經退出了兩個墨西哥市場。一個是圖盧姆機場,另一個(聽不清楚)是墨西哥城機場。這是墨西哥外匯宏觀原因嗎?是嗎——我知道圖盧姆,每個人都同時湧入市場,也許這就是供應過剩的情況。這些背後是什麼?

  • One is Tulum and the other (inaudible), the alternative Mexico City airport.

  • Is that a Mexican FX macro reason?

  • Is it -- I know Tulum, everybody rushed into the market at the same time and maybe that's an oversupply situation.

  • What's behind those?

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, don't say that, Mike.

    不,別這麼說,麥克。不,我們 - 我想告訴你,我們暫時只是撤出(聽不清楚)市場,實際上,你提到的兩個市場,還有哥倫比亞的阿瑪尼亞和多明尼加共和國的聖地亞哥(聽不清楚)。因此,我們暫時退出四個市場,我們應該會在 2025 年明年年底前回歸。

  • No, we -- I would tell you, we're temporarily only pulling out (inaudible) for markets, actually, the two you mentioned, but also Armania in Colombia and Santiago, (inaudible) in the Dominican Republic.

  • So four markets, we're pulling out temporarily we should be back before the end of next year of 2025.

  • And the reason we're doing that is also tied to aircraft deliveries.

    我們這樣做的原因也與飛機交付有關。所以這是一個——這四個市場即將有一個替代機場。距離我們不到 40 分鐘或平均 40 分鐘路程,我們有一個替代機場,我們每天都會嘗試很多班次。這些都比日常市場少。

  • So this is a -- these are four markets that have an alternative airport around the corner.

  • Less than 40 minutes or an average 40 minutes away, we have an alternative airport where we try with many daily frequencies.

  • These are all less than daily markets.

  • So given the delay in aircraft deliveries, there are other markets that do not have the luxury of having like (inaudible) 40 minutes from Armenia, in Mexico, the two airports are like 30 or 40 minutes apart.

    因此,考慮到飛機交付的延遲,其他市場沒有足夠的時間(聽不清楚)距離亞美尼亞 40 分鐘車程,在墨西哥,兩個機場相距約 30 或 40 分鐘。因此,我們將把這種能力部署到我們有強勁需求但沒有足夠飛機的其他市場。

  • So we're going to deploy that capacity to other markets where we have strong demand and no -- not enough aircraft.

  • Well, these other markets can be served from the nearby airport.

    那麼,附近的機場可以為這些其他市場提供服務。然後我們應該會在明年年底前回來,我們會收到預期的貨物。

  • And then we should be back by the end of next year, we get the deliveries we're expecting to get.

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • So Pedro, with the fact that you have to pull out of markets because you don't have airplane and you're getting delayed deliveries, how should we think about potential compensation?

    那麼,佩德羅,由於你沒有飛機並且交貨延遲,你必須退出市場,我們應該如何考慮潛在的補償?或者它如何體現在您今年的資本支出和現金流中?

  • Or how does it show up in maybe your CapEx this year and cash flow?

  • And I don't know if Jose answers that because as I see it, not only you have a special relationship with Boeing, you are Boeing's beachhead in Latin America to the extent that I think the last deal that was signed, we had the President of the United States and the President of Colombia with you to sign that deal.

    我不知道何塞是否回答了這個問題,因為在我看來,你們不僅與波音公司有著特殊的關係,而且你們是波音公司在拉丁美洲的灘頭陣地,我認為在簽署的最後一份協議中,我們有總統美國總統和哥倫比亞總統與您一起簽署協議。

  • So I would think that you would be getting some form of compensation, and it's going to just show up and reduce CapEx.

    所以我認為你會得到某種形式的補償,而且它只會出現並減少資本支出。那上面有什麼顏色嗎?

  • Any color on that?

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Michael.

    謝謝,麥可。我會讓何塞回答這個問題。但我們正在談論的這一特殊舉措,我們這樣做是為了加強我們的底線並更好地服務我們的整個網路。因此,對於那些一般性的具體行動及其運作方式,不會有任何補償。

  • I'll let Jose answer the question.

  • But this particular moves that we're talking about, we're doing it to strengthen our bottom line and to better serve our whole network.

  • So there won't be a compensation for those specific actions general with how that's working.

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Mike, going back to your comment, yeah, we were very happy and proud to have that signing ceremony was with the President of the US and at that moment here in Panama City.

    麥克,回到你的評論,是的,我們非常高興和自豪能夠在巴拿馬城與美國總統舉行簽字儀式。但是,是的,當然,有一些與這種情況相關的合約救濟,但我們與波音公司的合約性質是保密的。但是,是的,未來它將透過資本支出減少資本支出。

  • But the -- yeah, there is, of course, some contractual relief associated with this situation, but it's -- our -- the nature of our contracts with Boeing is confidential.

  • But yeah, it would flow through CapEx to a lesser amount of CapEx going forward.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

    杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth),Evercore ISI。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • So just on the guidance, you're going to generate 21%, 22% EBIT margins this year. which includes the impact of the MAX 9 grounding earlier in the year and then obviously, the close-in cuts that you had to make to Venezuela.

    因此,僅根據指導,今年您將獲得 21%、22% 的息稅前利潤率。其中包括今年早些時候 MAX 9 停飛的影響,當然還有對委內瑞拉的近距離削減。那麼您能否提醒我們您認為這兩項費用是多少,並提醒我們這兩項影響的總和大小?

  • So can you just remind us what do you think those two items cost you and just remind us of the sizing of those two impacts combined?

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, the Venezuela impact was probably, I would say, 0.5 point and the

    好吧,我想說,委內瑞拉的影響可能是 0.5 個百分點,而且——

  • --

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • For the full year.

    全年。

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • For the full year and the impact of the Boeing grounding, I think we disclosed it to be in order of about $40 million when it occurred.

    對於全年以及波音停飛的影響,我認為我們在其發生時披露的金額約為 4000 萬美元。這就是全年的影響。我想如果你能算一下的話。

  • So that's kind of the kind of the full year impact of this.

  • I think if you can do the math.

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • Okay, that's great.

    好的,太好了。進而 - 。

  • And then

  • --.

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah -- Duane.

    是的——杜安。不,要補充的是,我們的行業中有很多移動部件。是的,這不是——你知道這不是簡單的數學。

  • No, what's going to add is that there are so many moving parts in our industry.

  • Yeah, it's not like -- you know that's not simple math.

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, yes, you have to argue that our 21% to 22% results for 2024 include those two aspects, yes, certainly.

    嗯,是的,你必須說我們 2024 年 21% 到 22% 的結果包括這兩個方面,是的,當然。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。我的意思是,當我們考慮明年時,確實感覺有些時期有一些非常簡單的比較,但我們會看到。問你一個小問題。在利息支出方面,您撥出了 400 萬美元,用於調整您要歸還的租賃飛機的折扣率。這是第四節的一次性球員嗎?或者說,這是否會在未來的基礎上保留在利息支出中?

  • I mean it does feel like as we think about next year, there are some periods that have some pretty easy compares, but we'll see.

  • A minor question for you.

  • On the interest expense, you called out $4 million related to the adjustment of a discount rate for the calculation of leased aircraft that you're going to return.

  • Is that a onetimer here in the fourth quarter?

  • Or is that something that will kind of stay in the interest expense on a go-forward basis?

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • It is a yearly -- periodic adjustment that gets performed related to where interest rates lie.

    這是每年定期進行的調整,與利率水準相關。這只是一個非常神秘的國際財務報告準則要求,您基本上是用我們基本上擁有的無風險利率來調整資產負債表中的回報條件。

  • It's just a very arcane IFRS requirement where you basically are truing up the return conditions in the balance sheet with the risk-free rate basically that we have.

  • So that liability that shows something -- the balance sheet shows the true value of it at the moment where the balance sheet was established.

    因此,負債表顯示了一些東西——資產負債表顯示了它在資產負債表建立時的真實價值。因此,在利率下降的環境下,本質上你必須做出調整——所以在這種情況下,這是一個壞人,比方說,當利率下降時,與以下相關的費用更高那。

  • So therefore, on a say, on a lowering interest rate environment that essentially you have to make an adjustment and -- so in this case, it's a bad guy, let's say, when the interest come down, there is a higher charge related to that.

  • So I mean you could argue that it will kind of from a modeling perspective, will vary depending on where as interest rates fluctuate, it could fluctuate as well.

    所以我的意思是,你可能會說,從建模的角度來看,它會根據利率波動的情況而變化,它也可能會波動。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。然後也許只是為了偷偷溜進去。第一季初嗎?

  • And then maybe just to sneak one last one in.

  • A couple of the US carriers have been able to kind of look a little bit further out beyond the fourth quarter into early 2025.

  • The implied fourth quarter here, is that indicative of trends that you see into early first quarter?

  • And listen, I understand you don't typically comment on two quarters out, but it just feels like the yield environment feels a little bit different in January, February than what we're seeing here in the fourth quarter.

    聽著,我知道你通常不會對兩個季度發表評論,但感覺一月、二月的收益率環境與我們在第四季度看到的情況有點不同。

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think doing -- again, as you just answer kind of the question in the sense that we don't provide a multi-quarter guidance and we haven't established guidance for full year 2025.

    我認為,正如您剛剛回答的問題一樣,我們沒有提供多季度指導,也沒有為 2025 年全年制定指導。言,第一季的比較與第四季發生的情況有點相似。

  • But I think on a, let's say, sequential basis, you could argue that comps are sort of similar for Q1 versus what's going on in Q4 in terms of -- on the year-over-year comps, let's say.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Trent, Citi.

    史蒂芬‧特倫特,花旗銀行。

  • Stephen Trent - Analyst

    Stephen Trent - Analyst

  • The first one, I recall in the second quarter, that you guys had made an adjustment to a provision for unredeemed ticket revenue that had a little bit of a real impact on the margins.

    第一個,我記得在第二季度,你們對未兌換門票收入的準備金進行了調整,這對利潤率產生了一些實際影響。如果本季還有其他調整的話,您能幫我回憶一下嗎?或者,隨著我們的推進,您對該條款的政策仍然基本上相同嗎?

  • Could you refresh my memory if there was any other adjustment this quarter?

  • Or will you still have essentially the same policy on that provision as we move forward?

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。上個季度,我們指出了 0.5 美元的影響。我們之所以提出這一點,是因為這是一個追趕,我們剛剛調整了我們在第二季度用於贖回的因素,我們決定採取保守態度,我們是否以一種能夠捕捉到這一點的方式來做到這一點? 我們對 2024 年的全部假設或估計。

  • The last quarter, we called out a kind of a $0.5 impact.

  • And the reason why we called it out was because it was a catch-up we just adjusted the factor that we use for our redeem during the second quarter, and we decided to be conservative and do we did it in a way that it captured the entirety of our assumptions or estimates for 2024.

  • So it was kind of like a catch-up that occurred during Q2.

    所以這有點像是第二季發生的追趕。因此,第三季沒有與此相關的其他項目。 -- 與季度相關的會計分錄,僅此而已。我想說的是,史蒂芬。

  • And so there was no other items related to that in Q3. -- Accounting entry related to the quarter, nothing beyond that.

  • What I meant to say, Stephen.

  • Stephen Trent - Analyst

    Stephen Trent - Analyst

  • Appreciate that, Jose.

    很欣賞這一點,何塞。還有另外一個快速的。當我們考慮所有 - 我的意思是,不僅僅是你,每個人,原始設備製造商的供應鏈挑戰。您能否向我們介紹一下您的長期高層思考,如果您的供應鏈問題使您對長期規劃有不同的看法,那麼您如何考慮優化自有飛機與租賃飛機?

  • And just one other quick one.

  • When we think about all of the -- I mean, not just you, everybody, the supply chain challenges with the OEMs.

  • Could you give us a little bit of your high-level thinking long term, how you think about optimizing maybe your owned aircraft versus leased aircraft if you the supply chain stuff has made you think differently about the long-term planning?

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah.

    是的。這是佩德羅,史蒂夫。是的,這是一個複雜的問題,因為我們沒有那麼多的選擇。所以——我們已經買了一些租期結束的飛機。我們和一些[700s]住在一起,我們預計會回來。我們甚至提前購買了備用引擎。

  • That's Pedro here, Steve.

  • Yeah, that's a complicated matter because it's not like we have that many, many options.

  • So -- we have bought some aircraft off lease.

  • We're staying with some [700s] we were expecting to return.

  • And we have even bought spare engines ahead of time.

  • We're very, very proactive in securing parts in the marketplace, even though we have contracts with OEMs that are supposed to cover us -- so we've gone like beyond the call of duty to make sure that we have the stock.

    我們非常非常積極地確保市場上的零件安全,儘管我們與原始設備製造商簽訂了合同,這些合同應該涵蓋我們的範圍,所以我們已經超出了職責要求,以確保我們有庫存。我們甚至還在對引擎進行維護工作,過去我們必須將引擎發送給 MRO,而我們正在 GE 的支援下這樣做。

  • And we're even doing maintenance work even for engines that program work where we had to send the engines to the MROs in the past, and we're doing that with the support of GE.

  • We're doing that in our maintenance base in Panama also to speed up turnaround times and have more engines in stock.

    我們在巴拿馬的維修基地這樣做也是為了加快週轉時間並擁有更多的引擎庫存。因此,我想說,與之前的輕鬆時期相比,我們正在付出巨大的努力。我們已經能夠做到這一點。所以我們沒有因為缺少零件或缺少引擎和飛機而影響我們的運作。

  • So we're doing a, I would say, a gigantic effort versus the easier times before.

  • And we've been able to manage.

  • So we have not affected our operations for lack of parts or lack of engines and aircraft.

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • And I would say that the moves that Pedro just alluded to, like the buying of leases and the extent -- deciding to maintain the two 737, 700s, et cetera, just a testament of the flexibility that we have in our fleet plan as well.

    我想說的是,佩德羅剛才提到的舉措,例如購買租賃和決定維持兩架 737、700 等的程度,也證明了我們機隊計劃的靈活性。因此,我們將繼續執行機隊計畫中的靈活性。

  • So we continue executing on the flexibility that we have in our fleet plan.

  • Stephen Trent - Analyst

    Stephen Trent - Analyst

  • Really appreciate that, gentlemen.

    真的很感激,先生們。何塞,我不確定這是否是您最後一次結果電話會議,但如果真的非常感激。我會想念我們所有的互動。

  • And Jose, I'm not sure if this is your last results call, but if it is really deeply appreciate it.

  • I'll miss all our interactions.

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you very much, Steve.

    非常感謝你,史蒂夫。你把它帶到了我的眼前。非常感謝,也感謝你們的合作。

  • You have brought it here to my eye here.

  • So thanks a lot, and thank you for the partnership.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jens Spiess, Morgan Stanley.

    詹斯‧斯皮斯,摩根士丹利。

  • Jens Spiess - Analyst

    Jens Spiess - Analyst

  • I just want to ask on the Venezuela situation.

    我只想問一下委內瑞拉局勢。您已經提到了全年的影響。我只是想澄清一下。只集中在第三季嗎?或者部分影響也會在今年第四季顯現?

  • You already mentioned about the impact for the full year.

  • I just wanted to clarify.

  • Was it solely concentrated on the third quarter?

  • Or is part of the impact also going to be seen in the fourth quarter of this year?

  • And maybe also on like capital allocation, how are you thinking about it going forward?

    也許還有資本配置之類的問題,您如何看待未來的發展?我的意思是,您的資產負債表非常穩健,可能由於延遲而降低了資本支出。那麼,您是否可能考慮進行一些回購,看看股價目前的交易價格?對此的任何想法都會非常有用。

  • I mean you have extremely solid balance sheet maybe lower CapEx due to the delay.

  • So are you maybe contemplating some buybacks seeing where the share price is currently trading at?

  • Any thoughts on that would be very useful.

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll answer the first question and let Jose take the more difficult second question.

    我將回答第一個問題,讓何塞回答更困難的第二個問題。與往常一樣,第四季將對委內瑞拉產生影響,這一影響將略高於第三季影響的一半。

  • As always, yeah, there will be an impact on Venezuela in the fourth quarter, which would be slightly above half of what was the impact in the third quarter.

  • And that's because we've had time to redeploy some of the aircraft and generate new bookings in other markets.

    這是因為我們有時間重新部署一些飛機並在其他市場產生新的預訂。這就是差別。但仍略高於我們在第三季看到的 0.9 影響的一半。

  • So that's the difference.

  • But it will still be a little bit over half of the 0.9 impact we saw in the third quarter.

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Jens, the -- in terms of capital allocation, the first thing that we have to say is that we have a very generous dividend policy, 40% of prior year's adjusted net income, which has a very strong dividend yield right now.

    是的,Jens,在資本配置方面,我們首先要說的是,我們有非常慷慨的股息政策,佔上一年調整後淨收入的 40%,目前股息收益率非常高。所以這對我們公司來說是重要且重點的事情。

  • So that's something that is of importance and focus for our company.

  • We do have a buyback program, a $200 million approved buyback program, which we've executed about 1/4 of it so far.

    我們確實有一個回購計劃,一個批准的 2 億美元回購計劃,到目前為止我們已經執行了大約 1/4。但就資本配置而言,我想說,在接下來的 1.5 年到 2 年裡,我們與波音簽訂的飛機訂單將佔大部分。

  • But in terms of capital allocation, I would say that over the next 1.5 years to 2 years is going to be the majority of the bulk, let's say, of the order that we have with Boeing in terms of aircraft.

  • So (inaudible) for 2025, our expectation CapEx in total is going to be approaching $900 million.

    因此(聽不清楚)到 2025 年,我們預計資本支出總額將接近 9 億美元。現金資本支出約 3.5 億美元。因此,我們現在正在為 2025 年期間的一些資本支出要求做好準備。

  • That cash CapEx is going to be about $350 million.

  • So there is going to be some CapEx requirements during the year 2025 that we are sort of preparing for, let's say, right now.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alberto Valerio, UBS.

    阿爾貝托·瓦萊裡奧,瑞銀集團。

  • Alberto Valerio - Analyst

    Alberto Valerio - Analyst

  • My first one is about the forward guidance, preliminary guidance to 2025.

    我的第一個是關於前瞻性指導,到 2025 年的初步指導。我的問題是,這種利潤是否會重複出現並且在未來是否可行,是否會與過去改變?

  • If you take the current oil curve or jet curve and flat yields for next year, you will be reaching something close to 23% margins.

  • My question is, would that margin be recurring and feasible for the future is something that changed from the past?

  • And my second one, if I may, about Argentina.

    如果可以的話,我的第二個問題是關於阿根廷的。你們過去在這個國家有很大的影響力。在我們看到經濟動態發生變化之後,您是否打算回到那裡?

  • You guys had a big presence in the country in the past.

  • Are you looking to going back there after this change that we have seen in the economy dynamic?

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So I'll start with the second one on Argentina.

    我將從第二個關於阿根廷的問題開始。我不確定我是否得到完整的問題,但阿根廷對我們來說仍然是一個強大的市場。而且我們有很好的覆蓋範圍。我們飛往大約五個城市,並且每天有多個航班飛往布宜諾斯艾利斯。

  • And I'm not sure if I got the full question, but Argentina remains a strong market for us.

  • And we have good coverage.

  • We right to about five cities, and we have a number of daily frequencies to Buenos Aires.

  • And we're, again, as I mentioned at the beginning, we try to deploy the capacity that makes sense for us.

    正如我在開頭提到的,我們再次嘗試部署對我們有意義的能力。我們認為這就是我們在阿根廷所擁有的,我們對飛往阿根廷的航班感到非常滿意,儘管他們可能會遇到任何其他問題。所以這在那個市場運作良好。

  • And we think that's what we have in Argentina, and we're very happy with our flights with Argentina in spite of any other issues that they might be going through.

  • So that's working well in that market.

  • We -- in terms of the first question, I'll let Jose back me up, we are not issuing guidance for 2025, but I'll just say that we have shown in the past that we can consistently deliver industry-leading margins or at least leading margins in our part of the world and we're confident that we have the structure in place to continue delivering those results.

    我們——就第一個問題而言,我會讓 Jose 支持我,我們不會發布 2025 年的指導,但我只想說,我們過去已經證明,我們可以持續提供行業領先的利潤率,或者至少在我們所在的地區擁有領先的利潤率,我們相信我們擁有適當的結構來繼續實現這些成果。

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • And as Pedro mentioned, we'll provide our full year guidance in February.

    正如佩德羅所提到的,我們將在二月提供全年指導。是的。另一方面是,我們目前的單位成本基礎是最低的或較低的,這是我們在過去幾年中能夠實現的。我們只是能夠提供領先的結果,而不是那麼依賴波動和市場動態。因此,我們只是從根本上提高了效率,並且能夠以低成本為基礎維持非常非常好的利潤。

  • Yeah.

  • And the other aspect is that we are with our lowest or our lower unit cost base right now that we've been able to achieve over the last several years. we are simply able to deliver leading results and not be as dependent on the fluctuations and the market dynamics.

  • So we're just simply fundamentally more efficient and able to sustain very, very good margins with our low cost base.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rogerio Araujo, Bank of America.

    羅傑裡奧·阿勞霍,美國銀行。

  • Rogerio Araujo - Analyst

    Rogerio Araujo - Analyst

  • I have one follow-up on yields.

    我對收益率有一個後續行動。如果可以的話。第一個確認。該指導是否意味著飛往委內瑞拉的航班將受到全年限制?對那裡恢復營運有什麼期望嗎?

  • If I may.

  • First one confirmation.

  • Is the guidance imply a full year of restrictions in flights to Venezuela?

  • And any expectations of operations resuming there?

  • And the second part of the question is regarding the year-over-year comparison of yields.

    問題的第二部分是關於收益率的年比比較。因此,如果您能幫助我們思考 24 年上半年和下半年的可比較基礎如何,那麼其他一切都保持不變。

  • So all else being constant, if you could help us to think a little bit about how the comparable basis is in first half of '24 in second half.

  • So we had currencies devaluating in the region.

    因此,該地區的貨幣貶值。我們也讓委內瑞拉在七月底停止了營運。那麼我們應該考慮哪些項目以及對 24 年收益率比較基礎的期望是什麼?

  • And we also had Venezuela stop operations at the end of July.

  • So any item that we should take into consideration and what is the expectation for this comparison basis of yields in '24?

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。因此,我們發布的 2024 年全年指引包括委內瑞拉目前或受影響期間的影響,該指引將於今年 7 月底生效。這就是它嵌入其中的內容。請記住,該容量的一部分並未立即部署。因此,它對這一點以及客流量都產生了影響。

  • So the guidance that we have issued for full year 2024 includes the Venezuela impact for the moment or for the period that we have been affected, which is effective the end of July of this year.

  • So that's what it's embedded in there.

  • Remember that a portion of that capacity was not deployed immediately.

  • So therefore, it had an impact and also the flow of the passengers on this.

  • And in terms of 2025, bringing forward the 2025 guidance, we haven't issued any revenue guidance for the year is just a preliminary capacity guidance and CASMx fuel guidance.

    就2025年而言,提前提出2025年指導,我們尚未發布任何當年的收入指導,只是初步的產能指導和CASMx燃料指導。因此,運力指導假設您的(聽不清楚)回程或航班或飛機或運力已部署到有網路的其他目的地。

  • So with the capacity guidance assumes that your (inaudible) returns or the flights or the aircraft or the capacity are deployed to other destinations with network.

  • So it's from the standpoint of capacity and deployment, there is, let's say, it's embedded in regardless of what occurs with the aircraft, it would be embedded within that capacity.

    因此,從容量和部署的角度來看,可以說,無論飛機發生什麼情況,它都會嵌入到該容量中。至於全年的收益率,我想說,對於2024年全年,回到2024年,下半年的收益率也受到了你所描述的波動的影響,特別是在巴西,實際上,我們重點關注巴西,因為第二季下半年雷亞爾下跌影響了第三季的銷售。

  • And in terms of yields for the full year, I would say that for full year 2024, returning back to 2024, the yields in the second half of the year have also been affected by fluctuations that you described, specifically in Brazil, actually, we highlight Brazil because there was a drop in the real during the latter part of the second quarter that influenced the sales on this in the third quarter.

  • And that's also, as I discussed earlier in one of your earlier questions.

    正如我之前在您之前的一個問題中所討論的那樣。第四季從 0.115 美元調整為 0.14 美元的部分原因也與巴西有關——巴西的持續影響。

  • Part of the reason why the adjustment from $0.115 to $0.14 in the fourth quarter is also related to the Brazil -- the continued Brazil impact.b

  • Rogerio Araujo - Analyst

    Rogerio Araujo - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。完美的。如果可以的話,我想談談委內瑞拉的後續行動。如果按照(聽不清楚)這一趨勢恢復運營,是否會有任何好處?

  • Perfect.

  • And if I may, a follow-up on Venezuela.

  • Is there any kind of upside if operations resume there in terms of (inaudible) this trend?

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, it's hard to know.

    是的,這很難知道。這是一個不可預測的情況。我相信我們將重新啟動航班。我們飛往五個城市,每週超過 40 班航班。我們會在某個時候重新啟動,也許不是今年,很難預測。我猜測是在 2025 年的某個時候,但現在很難說是在第一季還是第二季。

  • It's a unpredictable situation.

  • I'm confident that we will restart flights.

  • We were flying to five cities, over 40 lights per week.

  • We will restart at some point and maybe not this year, hard to predict.

  • I would guess that at some point in 2025, but saying if it's in the first quarter or the second quarter, it's hard to tell right now.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Daniel McKenzie, Seaport Global.

    丹尼爾·麥肯齊,海港全球公司。

  • Daniel McKenzie - Analyst

    Daniel McKenzie - Analyst

  • A couple of questions here.

    這裡有幾個問題。追蹤或回溯 25 年資本支出躍升至 9 億美元。那麼,對於那些進行長期投資的投資者來說,我們如何看待 26 年和 27 年的下跌?與此相關的是,我只是想知道是否有興趣在 Wingo 上增加更多飛機?

  • Following up or circling back on the CapEx that jumps to $900 million in '25.

  • So for those investors that are investing a little longer term, how do we think about the drop-down in '26 and '27?

  • And then just related to that, I'm just wondering if there's an appetite to add more aircraft to Wingo?

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • So in '26, I would say it's similar.

    所以在 26 年,我會說這是相似的。它的大小相似。當然,這完全取決於波音向我們提供的交付流,因為基本上所有資本支出都是飛機。所以我想說,但我初步想說,26 年的資本支出將與 25 年的資本支出非常相似。

  • It's similar in size.

  • And of course, this is all depending on what the delivery stream is from Boeing to us because essentially all the CapEx is aircraft.

  • So I would say, but I would say preliminarily that in '26, it will be very similar to the '25 CapEx.

  • And then '27 probably a higher -- I mean it depends on ultimately what the delivery stream is.

    然後 27 年可能會更高——我的意思是這最終取決於交付流是什麼。我想說,對於 '26 和 '27 的初步建模視角,您可能可以在類似的層級對其進行建模。

  • I would say, for preliminary modeling perspective for '26 and '27, you could probably model it in a similar level.

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And in terms of Wingo, in terms of Wingo, as we get more deliveries next year, will give Wingo at least one aircraft, one 800 next year, it's in our fleet plan that we published, if I'm not mistaken.

    就Wingo而言,就Wingo而言,隨著明年我們的交付量增加,明年將給Wingo至少一架飛機,一架800架,如果我沒記錯的話,這是我們發布的機隊計劃中的。他們可能還可以使用更多,但我們現在都是緊張的飛機。但明年他們至少會得到一個。

  • And they could probably use a few more, but we're all tight aircraft right now.

  • But they'll get at least one next year.

  • Daniel McKenzie - Analyst

    Daniel McKenzie - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。非常好。第二個問題在這裡。我想知道您能否解析 2025 年的成長情況?那麼高級座位成長與主線座位成長比較呢?剛才提到了有關外匯的問題,我只是想知道這如何影響您對自己想要發展的方向的想法。那麼更多的美國線路或可能是更多服務不足的較小市場?我只是想了解宏觀背景如何影響您對業務和成長的看法。

  • Very good.

  • Second question here.

  • I'm wondering if you can unpack 2025 growth?

  • So premium seat growth versus mainline seat growth?

  • And just given the questions on FX earlier, I'm just wondering how that's shaping your thoughts about where you want to grow.

  • So more US line or perhaps more smaller markets that are underserved?

  • I'm just trying to get a sense of how the macro backdrop is shaping how you're thinking about the business and growth.

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Dan, a couple of things.

    是的,丹,有幾件事。我會給你一些關於成長細分的顏色。首先,明年的大部分成長將是我們在 2024 年開始的服務的全年影響。

  • I'll give you some color on the breakdown of the growth.

  • First of all, the majority of the growth for next year is going to be a full year effect of service that we started during 2024.

  • About 2/3 of the growth is going to be a full year effect.

  • And then the remainder is probably going to be, I don't know, 1/4 of the remainder is going to be -- or 25% of growth is going to be frequencies to markets that we already serve.

    然後剩下的可能是,我不知道,剩下的 1/4 或 25% 的成長將是我們已經服務的市場的頻率。然後一小部分將被測量。我們正在獲得額外的 - 嗯,實際上,這是我們在今年下半年獲得的九年的全年影響,或者 - 我們在今年早些時候,全年,實際上是過去幾年的影響MAX 9,我們基本上有32 個9,飛機的其餘部分將有8 個。

  • And then a minor portion would be gauge.

  • We're getting additional -- well, actually, it's a full year effect of the nine that we're getting towards the latter part of this year or -- that we had earlier in the year, the full year, effectively the last several MAX 9s, we have 32 9s that are basically and the remainder of the aircraft, there's going to be 8.

  • So that's basically that.

    基本上就是這樣。還有一個事實是,我們正在增加 800 個席位,並提高其密度,這是明年成長的另一個組成部分。這也將有助於我們 2025 年的 CASMx。所以,新的目的地將只佔成長的一小部分,只有低個位數的成長將成為目的地。

  • There's also the fact that we are adding seats into our 800s and densifying that's another component of the growth for next year.

  • That will also help our CASMx in 2025.

  • So that's a gauge.

  • So -- so new destination is going to be a minor portion of the growth, just low single digit over growth is going to be destinations.

  • Now so where we put the growth.

    現在我們把成長放在哪裡。我們有很多選擇和靈活性。但我想說,通常,你必須從一個前提開始,即如何滿足平衡。所以你總是要平衡巴拿馬北部和巴拿馬南部。所以你總是想要平衡成長。

  • It's -- we have a lot of options and flexibility.

  • But I would say, usually, you have to start from a premise that the how meets balance.

  • So you're always going to balance out, North of Panama versus South of Panama.

  • So you always want to balance the growth.

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And of course, profitability or potential profitability has a heavy weight on our decisions.

    當然,獲利能力或潛在獲利能力對我們的決策至關重要。

  • Daniel McKenzie - Analyst

    Daniel McKenzie - Analyst

  • That's a given.

    這是既定的。好吧,如果我能在這裡擠進最後一架飛機,考慮到托庫門機場容量限制的增加,其他航空公司進入登機口有多容易?您是否擁有實現成長所需的大門?

  • Well, if I could squeeze one final one in here, and that's just given the growth of capacity constraints at Tocumen Airport, how easy is it for other airlines to get access to gates?

  • And do you have the gates that you need to execute on the growth?

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah.

    是的。托庫門是一個開放機場。它不是航班時刻控制的,不是登機口控制的,而且也不是——托庫門沒有任何東西可以阻止任何人進入。這段期間所需要的兩年和三年後。

  • Tocumen is an open airport.

  • It's not slot controlled, it's not gate controlled, and it does not -- there's nothing about Tocumen that stops anyone from coming in.

  • As we continue growing, the airport is already working on plans to expand its capacity, which will be needed in between two and three years from now.

  • And there's a lot of low-hanging fruit that they will implement, take advantage of to increase its capacity.

    他們將實施許多容易實現的目標,並利用這些成果來提高其能力。所以實際上沒有任何限制。白天,機場的某些時刻可能會出現航班時刻和登機口緊張的情況,但這種情況也會得到改善。

  • So there are actually no restrictions.

  • There might be some moments during the day where the airport might be tight in slots and gates, but that will be improved also.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Savi Syth, Raymond James.

    薩維·賽斯,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • Just two quick ones.

    就兩個快的。首先,考慮到成長正在放緩,就 2025 年的單位成本指南而言,這令人印象深刻。聽起來,何塞,你提到緻密化是有幫助的,儘管我認為你已經預料到了這一點。我很好奇您能否談談什麼可以幫助您實現良好的單位成本執行?

  • First, just on the unit cost guide for 2025, that's impressive given that you are slowing growth.

  • It sounds like, Jose, you mentioned densification is helping, though I think you're already expecting that.

  • I was curious if you could talk about like what's helping you generate that good unit cost execution?

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。嗯,首先,是的,我們和其他人一樣面臨通膨壓力。機場費用、飛越、空域、成本等等,這些都是對我們的成本造成壓力的項目。 (聽不清楚)增加800 架飛機的密度,這將是整個2025 年持續進行的項目。 。因此添加(聽不清楚)角色。

  • Well, first of all, yeah, we are facing like everybody else, there are inflationary pressures out there.

  • Airport fees, overflights, airspace, costs, et cetera, those are items that put pressure on our costs. (inaudible) for the densification of the 800 that will be an ongoing project throughout 2025.

  • And just as a reminder, we're bringing the seat count on 48 737-800s that Copa Airlines operates from average 160 to 166 seats.

  • So adding (inaudible) role.

  • In addition to that, it's growth, first of all, the growth helps and the overall growth in capacity that we're guiding to.

    除此之外,它是成長,首先,成長是有幫助的,是我們引導的整體產能成長。我們正在逐步減少銷售和分銷工作以及措施。所以有一點這樣的。維護也有一些我們明年尋求的機會,這些機會應該讓我們能夠保留——提醒您,我們提前一年實現了 0.58 美元的 CASM 目標。但我認為我們也希望明年能保留它。

  • There is still a tapering off of a sales and distribution efforts and initiatives that we're pursuing.

  • So there's a little bit of that.

  • And maintenance also has some opportunities that we're pursuing for next year that should allow us to keep -- remind you that we achieved our $0.58 CASM target a year early.

  • But I think we're hopefully keeping it for next year as well.

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • I appreciate that.

    我很欣賞這一點。然後,也許只是最後一個問題,當您希望過渡時,關於財務長搜尋的任何更新嗎?對管理層構成還有其他想法嗎?

  • And -- and then maybe just a final question on -- as you look to transition out, any update on the CFO search?

  • And any other kind of thoughts on the management makeup?

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me just need to say something -- this is like my last question ever.

    讓我想說些什麼——這就像我最後一個問題。我先講一下。沒有這個問題我就不會離開。我們在這裡真的很開心。但當然,事實並非如此。

  • So I start for a second.

  • I was not going to get away without that question.

  • We're really doing high-5s here.

  • But of course, that was not.

  • We're prepared.

    我們準備好了。好吧——我實際上會回答更多(聽不清楚)問題,但我會藉此機會向何塞表示他上次的財報電話會議。他在 Copa 效力了 30 多年。他從我們的營運控制中心開始,然後就開始籌劃聯盟,時間長達 10 多年。

  • So well -- and I'll take actually (inaudible) more questions, but I'll take this opportunity to recognize Jose his last earnings call.

  • He's been with Copa over 30 years.

  • He started in our operations control center then was planning on alliances then for over 10 years.

  • He's done a great job as CFO of the company with a ton of accomplishments most during really challenging years where we were able always to keep our open margins in double digits, with the exception of course, like the heart of the pandemic 2020.

    他作為公司財務長的工作非常出色,在真正充滿挑戰的年份裡取得了許多成就,在這些年裡,我們始終能夠將開放利潤保持在兩位數,當然,除了2020 年大流行的核心時期之外。

  • But -- and a lot of work goes into those results.

    但是——這些結果需要做很多工作。很多舉措、成本舉措、融資舉措等等。所以何塞做得非常出色,他現在決定退休。所以他贏得了這個權利,我們正在內部和外部積極尋找他的替代者。

  • A lot of initiatives, cost initiatives, financing initiatives, et cetera.

  • So Jose has done an outstanding job, and he has now decided to retire.

  • So he's earned the right, and we are actively searching for his replacement, internally and externally.

  • We're not ready to announce anything yet, but we're actively working on that.

    我們還沒有準備好宣布任何事情,但我們正在積極努力。如果我們在 1 月 1 日之前還沒有準備好,我們也有應急計劃。是的,繼續吧。

  • And we also have contingency plans if we were not ready by January 1.

  • So there's nothing really new to announce right now in that regard.

  • Yeah, go ahead.

  • Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Montero Moreno - Chief Financial Officer

  • No, thank you for that.

    不,謝謝你。但現實是這裡有一個團隊。這不是因為任何特定的人。所以有一個團隊正在做一切事情。所以我認為你必須相信在這個特殊情況下沒有人是不可或缺的。

  • But the reality is that there's a team here.

  • It's not like -- it's not because of any particular person.

  • So there's a team ongoing that does everything.

  • And so I think that you have to have the confidence that no one is indispensable in this particular case.

  • And I think we have a very strong team behind in the financial areas and overall and management that will go forward.

    我認為我們在財務領域和整體管理方面擁有一支非常強大的團隊,並將繼續前進。所以這實際上是我考慮的最重要事情的一部分。

  • So that's actually part of the most important things that I think about.

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Of course.

    當然。所以我們根本不會丟球。如果我們這樣做,對何塞來說就不好看了。所以這不會發生。我們不會丟球。我們有一支強大的團隊。所以這不會是個弱點。

  • So we're not dropping the ball at all.

  • If we did, it would not look good on Jose.

  • So that's not going to happen.

  • We're not going to drop the ball.

  • We have a strong team.

  • So that won't be a weak point.

  • And then in terms of other management changes, we did bring in, and we issued a press release.

    然後就其他管理層變動而言,我們確實進行了調整,並發布了新聞稿。我們設立了一個新的執行副總裁職位。適合這個職位的人已經在這裡了,他的名字是羅伯特‧凱裡。他來自【威爾·Air】。在此之前,您是 ECJ 的 CCO(聽不清楚)。在此之前,他在 Mackenzie 航空領域工作了很多年,並在拉丁美洲工作了很多年。

  • We created a new executive VP position.

  • The person that's fitting that position is already here and his name is Robert Carey.

  • He comes from

  • [Will Air].

  • He was the presented with (inaudible) before that, you were the CCO at ECJ.

  • Before that, he was with Mackenzie for many years in the aviation sector, working a lot in Latin America.

  • So I plan to share some of my workload with Robert.

    所以我打算和羅伯特分擔一些工作量。它將使我不必在一天中的每一分鐘都專注於這麼多事情。所以他會在那裡幫助我,我將能夠專注於許多其他事情。因此,我們基本上是在加強公司,加強管理團隊,使整體更強大。

  • It will allow me to not have to concentrate on so many things, every single minute of the day.

  • So he'll help me there and I'll be able to focus on many other things.

  • So we're basically strengthening the company, strengthening the management team to be even stronger overall going forward.

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • And I can appreciate those are big shoes to fill, so taking some time makes sense.

    我可以理解這些都是需要填補的重擔,所以花一些時間是有意義的。我很欣賞你的回應。

  • I appreciate the response.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This does conclude the question-and-answer session.

    問答環節到此結束。我現在想將程式交還給佩德羅以供進一步評論。

  • I'd now like to hand the program back to Pedro for any further remarks.

  • Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pedro Heilbron - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay.

    好的。謝謝您,先生。再次感謝大家參加本次財報電話會議。再次感謝何塞在美洲杯的出色工作。這是他最後一次通話。我知道他會想念他們的。我們知道這一點。所以也許他會在下一部客串。

  • Thank you, sir.

  • So thank you all, again, thanks for participating in this earnings call.

  • Again, thanks to Jose for his great work at Copa.

  • This is his last call.

  • I know he's going to miss them.

  • We know that.

  • So maybe he'll make a cameo in the next one.

  • But seriously, thank you all, really.

    但說實話,真的謝謝大家。謝謝您的提問。感謝您一如既往的參與和支持。我們將像往常一樣繼續努力工作,在任何情況下繼續提供強勁的利潤和行業領先的業績。謝謝你,祝你有美好的一天。

  • Thank you for your questions.

  • Thank you for your participation, and your support, as always.

  • We'll keep on working really hard, like we always do, to continue delivering strong margin and industry-leading results under any circumstance.

  • So thank you, and have a great day.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation.

    女士們、先生們,感謝您的參與。演示到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接,並度過美好的一天。

  • That concludes the presentation.

  • You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.