Copa Holdings SA (CPA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Copa Holdings First Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being webcast and recorded on May 11, 2023. Now I will turn the conference call over to Daniel Tapia, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may now begin.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎來到 Copa Holdings 第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，該電話會議將於 2023 年 5 月 11 日進行網絡直播和錄音。現在我將把電話會議轉交給投資者關係總監丹尼爾·塔皮亞。先生，您現在可以開始了。

Thank you, Felicia, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings, and Jose Montero, our CFO. First, Pedro will start by going over our first quarter highlights, followed by Jose, who will discuss our financial results. Immediately after, we will open the call for questions from analysts.

謝謝 Felicia，歡迎大家參加我們的第一季度財報電話會議。今天加入我們的有 Copa Holdings 首席執行官 Pedro Heilbron 和我們的首席財務官 Jose Montero。首先，Pedro 將首先回顧我們第一季度的亮點，然後 Jose 將討論我們的財務業績。緊接著，我們將打開分析師提問的電話。

Copa Holdings' financial reports have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards. In today's call, we will discuss non-IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of the non-IFRS to IFRS financial measures can be found in our earnings release, which has been posted on the company's website, copaair.com.

Copa Holdings 財務報告是根據國際財務報告準則編制的。在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論非 IFRS 財務指標。非 IFRS 與 IFRS 財務措施的調節可以在我們的收益發布中找到，該發布已發佈在公司網站 copaair.com 上。

Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts, that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and/or intentions regarding future events and results. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC. Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heilbron.

我們今天的討論還將包含前瞻性陳述，不限於反映公司當前對未來事件和結果的信念、期望和/或意圖的歷史事實。這些前瞻性陳述涉及可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的風險和不確定性，並且基於可能發生變化的假設。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度報告中討論了其中的許多內容。現在我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Pedro Heilbron 先生。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning to all, and thanks for participating in our first quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to all our co-workers for their commitment to the company. Their continuous efforts and dedication have kept Copa at the forefront of Latin American aviation. To them, as always, my highest regards and admiration.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的第一季度財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我想對所有同事對公司的承諾表示衷心的感謝。他們的不懈努力和奉獻精神使 Copa 始終走在拉丁美洲航空的前列。一如既往，我向他們致以最崇高的敬意和欽佩。

Today, we're pleased to report strong results for the first quarter and a solid outlook for the year. Despite the continued high fuel prices in the quarter, we were able to deliver an operating margin of 22.3%. These results were mainly driven by a robust demand environment in the region, which led to an improved load factor as well as an increase in passenger yields during the quarter.

今天，我們很高興地報告第一季度的強勁業績和今年的穩健前景。儘管本季度燃油價格持續走高，我們仍能實現 22.3% 的營業利潤率。這些結果主要是由於該地區強勁的需求環境推動的，這導致本季度載客率提高以及乘客收益增加。

Among the main highlights for the quarter, passenger traffic grew 7.1% compared to the same period in 2019, outpacing our capacity growth of 2.8%. This resulted in an 86.8% load factor, a 3.5 percentage point increase compared to Q1 2019.

在本季度的主要亮點中，客運量與 2019 年同期相比增長了 7.1%，超過了我們 2.8% 的運力增長。這導致載客率為 86.8%，與 2019 年第一季度相比增加了 3.5 個百分點。

Passenger yields came in at $0.146 or 20% higher than the first quarter of 2019, while cargo revenue was 52% higher, resulting in unit revenues, or RASM, of $0.131, a 25.5% increase compared to the first quarter of 2019.

乘客收益率為 0.146 美元，比 2019 年第一季度高出 20%。雖然貨運收入高出 52%，導致單位收入或 RASM 為 0.131 美元，比 2019 年第一季度增長 25.5%。

On the cost side, our unit cost excluding fuel came in at $0.062 or 2.1% higher compared to Q1 2019. As a result, our operating margin came in at 22.3%, 5.5 percentage points higher than in the first quarter of 2019.

在成本方面，我們的單位成本（不包括燃料）比 2019 年第一季度高出 0.062 美元或 2.1%。因此，我們的營業利潤率為 22.3%，比 2019 年第一季度高出 5.5 個百分點。

On the operational front, Copa earnings delivered an on-time performance of 92.2% and a completion factor of 99.9%, once again amongst the very best in the world.

在運營方面，Copa 收益實現了 92.2% 的準點率和 99.9% 的完成率，再次躋身世界最佳之列。

I would like to take this opportunity to express my recognition for more than 7,000 coworkers who day in and day out deliver a world-class travel experience to our customers. Their contributions are key to our success.

我想藉此機會表達我對 7,000 多名日復一日為我們的客戶提供世界一流旅行體驗的同事的認可。他們的貢獻是我們成功的關鍵。

Turning now to our fleet. We received two 737 MAX 9 aircraft during the quarter, and we expect to receive 10 more MAX 9s during the remainder of the year, to end 2023 with a total fleet of 109 aircraft.

現在轉向我們的艦隊。我們在本季度接收了兩架 737 MAX 9 飛機，我們預計在今年剩餘時間到 2023 年底將再接收 10 架 MAX 9，機隊總數為 109 架飛機。

With regards to our network, as we mentioned in our last call, we plan to start new service to the cities of Manta in Ecuador and Baltimore and Austin in the U.S. starting this summer. With these additions, we will serve 80 destinations in 32 countries in North, Central, South America and the Caribbean, as we continue to strengthen and solidifying our position as the most complete and convenient hub in Latin America.

關於我們的網絡，正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的，我們計劃從今年夏天開始向厄瓜多爾的曼塔以及美國的巴爾的摩和奧斯汀等城市提供新服務。隨著這些新機場的加入，我們將為北美洲、中美洲、南美洲和加勒比地區 32 個國家/地區的 80 個目的地提供服務，同時我們將繼續加強和鞏固我們作為拉丁美洲最完善、最便捷的樞紐的地位。

Finally, with regards to Wingo, Wingo continues its regional expansion with the announcement of 3 new domestic Colombia routes from Bogota to Barranquilla, Pereda, and Bucaramanga and 1 international seasonal service from Cali in Colombia to Aruba. With these additions, Wingo will operate 34 routes with service to 21 cities in 10 countries.

最後，關於 Wingo，Wingo 繼續其區域擴張，宣布了 3 條新的哥倫比亞國內航線，從波哥大到巴蘭基亞、佩雷達和布卡拉曼加，以及 1 條從哥倫比亞卡利到阿魯巴的國際季節性航線。有了這些新成員，Wingo 將運營 34 條航線，服務於 10 個國家/地區的 21 個城市。

Now turning to our expectations for 2023. As you saw in our earnings release, we increased our operating margin guidance to a range of 22% to 24%, mainly driven by the current solid demand environment in the region as well as a lower fuel curve for the remainder of the year. As always, Jose will provide more detail regarding the full year's outlook.

現在談談我們對 2023 年的預期。正如您在我們的收益發布中看到的那樣，我們將營業利潤率指引上調至 22% 至 24%，這主要是受該地區當前穩健的需求環境以及較低的燃料曲線推動在今年剩下的時間裡。一如既往，何塞將提供有關全年展望的更多細節。

To summarize, we're off to a very good start in 2023 and expect to keep seeing a healthy demand environment throughout the year. We continue growing and strengthening our network, the most complete and convenient hub for intra-Latin America travel. And as always, our team continues to deliver world-leading operational results while maintaining our cost low. Lastly, we're as confident as ever in our business model. We continue to deliver solid margins and competitive unit costs while offering a great product for our passengers, making us the best positioned airline in our region to consistently deliver industry-leading results. Now I'll turn it over to Jose, who will go over our financial results in more detail.

總而言之，我們在 2023 年有了一個良好的開端，預計全年都將保持健康的需求環境。我們繼續發展和加強我們的網絡，這是拉丁美洲內部旅行最完整、最方便的樞紐。一如既往，我們的團隊繼續提供世界領先的運營成果，同時保持我們的低成本。最後，我們對我們的商業模式一如既往地充滿信心。我們繼續提供可觀的利潤率和有競爭力的單位成本，同時為我們的乘客提供優質的產品，使我們成為本地區定位最佳的航空公司，始終如一地提供行業領先的業績。現在我將把它交給何塞，他將更詳細地檢查我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Pedro. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for being with us today. I'd like to join Pedro in acknowledging our great team for all their efforts to deliver a world-class service to our passengers. I will start by going over our first quarter results.

謝謝你，佩德羅。大家，早安。感謝您今天與我們在一起。我想和 Pedro 一起感謝我們偉大的團隊為我們的乘客提供世界一流服務所做的一切努力。我將從回顧我們的第一季度業績開始。

We reported a net profit for the quarter of $121.5 million or $3.07 per share. Excluding special items, net profit came in at $157.8 million or $3.99 per share. First quarter special items are comprised of an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $37.9 million related to an appreciation in the value of the company's convertible notes and a $1.7 million unrealized mark-to-market gain related to changes in the value of financial investments.

我們報告本季度的淨利潤為 1.215 億美元或每股 3.07 美元。不包括特殊項目，淨利潤為 1.578 億美元或每股 3.99 美元。第一季度的特殊項目包括與公司可轉換票據價值升值相關的 3790 萬美元未實現市值損失和與金融投資價值變化相關的 170 萬美元未實現市值收益.

We reported a quarterly operating profit of $193.2 million and an operating margin of 22.3%. Capacity came in at 6.6 billion available seat miles or approximately 3% higher than in Q1 2019. Load factor came in at 86.8% for the quarter, a 3.5 percentage point increase compared to the same period in 2019, while passenger yields increased 20% to $0.146.

我們公佈的季度營業利潤為 1.932 億美元，營業利潤率為 22.3%。運力達到 66 億美元的可用座位英里數，比 2019 年第一季度增長約 3%。本季度載客率為 86.8%，比 2019 年同期增長 3.5 個百分點，乘客收益率增長 20% 至 0.146 美元.

As a result, unit revenues came in at $0.131 or 25.5% higher than in the first quarter of 2019. Driven by higher jet fuel prices, unit costs or CASM increased 17.2% versus Q1 2019 to $0.102. And our CASM excluding fuel came in at $0.062, a 2.1% increase versus Q1 2019, mainly driven by additional engine maintenance costs, changes in supplemental rent provisions related to aircraft utilization as well as additional lease engine costs, plus an increase in our sales and distribution costs as a function of higher sales during the period.

因此，單位收入為 0.131 美元，比 2019 年第一季度高出 25.5%。在噴氣燃料價格上漲的推動下，單位成本或 CASM 比 2019 年第一季度增長 17.2% 至 0.102 美元。我們的 CASM（不包括燃料）為 0.062 美元，比 2019 年第一季度增長 2.1%，這主要是由於額外的發動機維護成本、與飛機使用相關的補充租金規定的變化以及額外的租賃發動機成本，以及我們的增加銷售和分銷成本作為該期間銷售額增加的函數。

I'm going to spend some time now discussing our balance sheet and liquidity. As of the end of Q1, we had assets of close to $4.9 billion. And in terms of cash, short- and long-term investments, we ended the quarter with $1.2 billion, which represents 36% of our last 12 months' revenues. As to our debt, we ended the quarter with $1.7 billion in debt and lease liabilities and achieved a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6x. 80% of our aircraft debt is fixed, and I'm happy to report that our blended cost of aircraft debt for the quarter came in at an annualized rate of 3%.

我現在要花一些時間討論我們的資產負債表和流動性。截至第一季度末，我們的資產接近 49 億美元。在現金、短期和長期投資方面，我們在本季度結束時獲得了 12 億美元，占我們過去 12 個月收入的 36%。所以我們的債務，我們在本季度末的債務和租賃負債為 17 億美元，淨債務與 EBITDA 之比為 0.6 倍。我們 80% 的飛機債務是固定的，我很高興地報告，我們本季度的飛機債務混合成本年化率為 3%。

Turning now to our fleet. During the first quarter, we received two Boeing 737 MAX 9s to end the quarter with a total of 99 aircraft, compared to 102 aircraft in our fleet at the end of 2019. With these additions, our total fleet is now comprised of 68 737-800s, 22 737 MAX 9s and 9 737-700s. These figures include 1 737-800 freighter and the 9 737-800s operated by Wingo.

現在轉向我們的艦隊。在第一季度，我們收到了兩架波音 737 MAX 9，截至本季度末共有 99 架飛機，而 2019 年底我們的機隊中有 102 架飛機。加上這些增加，我們的機隊總數現在由 68 737- 800、22 737 MAX 9 和 9 737-700。這些數字包括 1 737-800 貨機和由 Wingo 運營的 9 737-800。

2/3 of our fleet continues to be comprised of owned aircraft and 1/3 of our aircraft are under operating leases. During the remainder of 2023, we expect to receive 10 additional aircraft, all Boeing 737 MAX 9s, to end the year with a total fleet of 109 aircraft.

我們 2/3 的機隊仍然由自有飛機組成，1/3 的飛機處於經營租賃狀態。在 2023 年的剩餘時間裡，我們預計將再接收 10 架飛機，全部為波音 737 MAX 9，到年底機隊總數將達到 109 架。

Finally, I'm pleased to inform you that this past month of March, our Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend of $0.82 per share, subject to Board ratification each quarter, which reinstates our dividend payout of 40% of prior year's adjusted net income. We made our first quarterly payment during the month of April, and the second payment will be on June 15 to all shareholders of record as of May 31.

最後，我很高興地通知您，在剛剛過去的 3 月，我們的董事會批准了每股 0.82 美元的季度股息，每個季度都需要董事會批准，這將恢復我們去年調整後淨收入的 40% 的股息支付。我們在 4 月份支付了第一筆季度付款，第二筆付款將於 6 月 15 日支付給截至 5 月 31 日在冊的所有股東。

As to our outlook based on the strength of the current demand environment, we can provide the following guidance for full year 2023. We expect to increase our capacity in ASMs versus 2022 within a range of 12% to 13%. We now expect an operating margin within the range of 22% to 24%. We're basing our outlook on the following assumptions: load factor of approximately 85%, unit revenues within the range of $0.125, CASM ex fuel to be in the range of $0.061, and finally, we're expecting an all-in fuel price of $2.85 per gallon. Thank you. And with that, we'll open the call to some questions.

至於我們基於當前需求環境強度的展望，我們可以為 2023 年全年提供以下指導。我們預計與 2022 年相比，我們的 ASM 產能將增加 12% 至 13%。我們現在預計營業利潤率在 22% 至 24% 之間。我們的展望基於以下假設：負載率約為 85%，單位收入在 0.125 美元範圍內，CASM ex 燃料在 0.061 美元範圍內。最後，我們預計燃油總價為每加侖 2.85 美元。謝謝。有了這個，我們將打開一些問題的電話。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Stephen Trent from Citi.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自花旗銀行的斯蒂芬特倫特。

I was wondering, kind of on a high-level basis, if you could discuss the opportunities related to the renewed strategic alliance with United Airlines from August 2021 and what you might be seeing in terms of the potential for a joint business agreement, maybe revisiting that down the line.

我想在高層基礎上討論一下與美國聯合航空公司從 2021 年 8 月起重新建立戰略聯盟相關的機會，以及您可能會看到的聯合業務協議的可能性，也許會重新審視下線。

Stephen, it's Pedro. As you know, we have a very strong alliance with United that goes all the way back to the Continental days. And on top of that, we are, of course, part of Star Alliance. So we feel that with our strong United relationship plus Star Alliance, we cover what's of most benefit to Copa in terms of where we fly, the regions where we fly, where we're active, and the airlines that we should be an alliance with.

斯蒂芬，是佩德羅。如你所知，我們與曼聯有著非常強大的聯盟，這種聯盟可以一直追溯到歐洲大陸的日期。除此之外，我們當然是星空聯盟的一部分。因此，我們認為，憑藉我們強大的美聯航關係和星空聯盟，我們涵蓋了對 Copa 最有利的方面，包括我們的飛行地點、我們飛行的地區、我們活躍的地區以及我們應該與之結盟的收入.

We also have that letter of intent or whatever it's called with -- between Avianca, United and Copa for a JBA, joint business agreement. And I think that has not been implemented. The pandemic was in between. And honestly, I don't really know if that's going to be implemented or it will just be allowed to expire. I think it probably has over a year for that decision to be made. But again, what I'm trying to say is that we have the alliances we need and that add the most value to Copa.

我們還有那份意向書或任何它所稱的東西——Avianca、United 和 Copa 之間的 JBA 聯合商業協議。我認為這還沒有實施。大流行介於兩者之間。老實說，我真的不知道它會被實施還是會被允許過期。我認為做出該決定可能需要一年多的時間。但同樣，我想說的是，我們擁有我們需要的聯盟，這為 Copa 增加了最大的價值。

I really appreciate that. And just my one follow-up, I believe you talked in the past about the LEAP engines driving kind of a one time relatively smallish CASM-ex headwind into this year? And any high-level view on whether that's going to ease as we move through 2024?

我真的很感激。只是我的一個後續行動，我相信你過去曾談到過 LEAP 引擎在今年推動了一種相對較小的 CASM Ex 逆風？關於到 2024 年時這種情況是否會緩解的任何高層觀點？

Yes, I'll let Jose answer.

是的，我會讓何塞回答。

Yes, Stephen, let me just say that, yes, there are some, I would say, short-term headwinds related to the LEAP engine. Most of the costs that we've seen so far this year are associated to short shop visits that some of the engines require to -- as part of campaigns that are being performed in the worldwide fleet of the LEAP. We're seeing an improvement in the performance of the engine, and we are relatively advanced in the majority of these campaigns. And so going forward, in the rest of 2023, we expect to have a lesser number of engines going into a shop and/or with some of the fixes that are required. And so that actually flows into our $0.061 CASM guidance that we have for the full year vis-a-vis the CASM-ex guidance that we had issued back in February.

是的，斯蒂芬，我只想說是的，我想說，有一些與 LEAP 引擎相關的短期不利因素。今年到目前為止，我們看到的大部分成本都與一些發動機需要的短期車間訪問有關——作為 LEAP 全球機隊正在執行的活動的一部分。我們看到引擎的性能有所提高。我們在大多數這些活動中都相對領先。因此，展望未來，在 2023 年剩下的時間裡，我們預計進入商店的發動機數量會減少和/或進行一些所需的修復。因此，相對於我們在 2 月份發布的 CASM Ex 指南，這實際上流入了我們全年的 0.061 美元 CASM 指南。

Super helpful, gentlemen, and looking forward to seeing you on Tuesday.

超級樂於助人，先生們，期待週二見到你們。

The next question comes from the line of Savi Syth of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

I was curious, you're usually a fairly conservative team in forecasting, and the kind of revenue outlook improvement is pretty meaningful. Just curious what trends you're seeing that kind of gives you confidence this early on to kind of take those numbers up.

我很好奇，你通常是一個在預測方面相當保守的團隊，而這種收入前景的改善是非常有意義的。只是好奇你所看到的那種趨勢會給你信心，讓你有信心去接受這些數字。

Yes, Savi, I'll start and maybe, Pedro, you can jump in to complement. I would say that the first thing is that Q1 certainly had a very, very robust demand environment. So I think that's a portion of the increase that we had made to our unit revenue guidance. And then secondly, I would say that from our visibility that what we have for the coming months, specifically the second quarter, the demand environment continues to be relatively robust. So that's also embedded in there. And then we are cognizant that our visibility is limited for the remainder of the year. So I think that that's -- there's some seasonality as well that we put into the guidance. And of course, we're cognizant as well that there's a lot of capacity coming into market. There's a lot of -- fuel is also an item that we are paying close attention to and the movement in fuel. So we're -- I think we're -- I think we can say that we're confident in the 12.5%, but it's mostly related, I would say, to Q1 and to the visibility that we have into the first half of the year.

是的，薩維，我會開始，也許佩德羅，你可以加入補充。我要說的第一件事是，第一季度肯定有一個非常非常強勁的需求環境。所以我認為這是我們對單位收入指導所做的增加的一部分。其次，我要說的是，從我們對未來幾個月特別是第二季度的可見性來看，需求環境仍然相對強勁。所以它也嵌入其中。然後我們意識到，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們的能見度是有限的。所以我認為那是——我們在指南中也加入了一些季節性因素。當然，我們也意識到有大量產能進入市場。有很多 - 燃料也是我們密切關注的項目和燃料的運動。所以我們 - 我認為我們 - 我認為我們可以說我們對 12.5% 有信心，但我想說，這主要與第一季度和我們對上半年的可見性有關的一年。

And the only thing I would add, Savi, is that our guidance, even though it has been improved, as you mentioned, still puts us at a lower RASM for the second half of 2023 compared to the second half of 2022. And that's because of the decreased fuel curve and the additional capacity coming into our markets. So we're still projecting lower RASM in the second half of the year.

薩維，我唯一要補充的是，儘管我們的指導有所改進，但正如你們所說，與 2022 年下半年相比，我們在 2023 年下半年的 RASM 仍然較低。那就是因為燃料曲線下降和進入我們市場的額外容量。所以我們仍然預計下半年 RASM 會降低。

That's helpful. And along those lines, for my second question, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the business demand standpoint. It seemed like it was a slow progress over the last few quarters. Have you seen any improvement there?

這很有幫助。沿著這些思路，對於我的第二個問題，我想知道你是否可以談談你從業務需求的角度來看的情況。在過去的幾個季度裡，這似乎是一個緩慢的進展。你看到那裡有什麼改善嗎？

There's still some improvement, but things have changed, at least in our part of the world, since the pandemic. So leisure is our strongest segment now. It's not as much as half, but it's in the 40% of our split between leisure, VFR, and business. And business has come up somewhat, it's like in the mid-20s, maybe a little bit less than that percent in terms of that same split, but slight improvement in the last few quarters, nothing very significant.

仍有一些改善，但情況發生了變化，至少自大流行以來我們所在的地區是這樣。所以休閒是我們現在最強大的部分。沒有一半那麼多，但它在我們休閒、VFR 和商務之間的分配中佔了 40%。業務有所增長，就像在 20 年代中期，就同一拆分而言，可能略低於該百分比，但在過去幾個季度略有改善，沒有什麼大不了的。

The next question comes from the line of Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Guilherme Mendes。

Pedro, Jose, Daniel, congrats on the pretty strong results. First question, just a follow-up on the assumptions behind the guidance. I think it's clear on the CASM front, but just wondering in terms of the capacity addition, there's a small reduction. Just wondering if it's related to any potential bottlenecks on the supply side of the industry. And on the rev guidance, thinking that probably it implies a stronger yield for the year despite of lower fuel cost as well. So if you could please just further explain how you're seeing demand environment going forward? And then my second question...

佩德羅、何塞、丹尼爾，祝賀取得了相當不錯的成績。第一個問題，只是對指南背後假設的跟進。我認為在 CASM 方面很清楚。但只是想知道容量增加與小幅減少的關係。只是想知道這是否與行業供應方面的任何潛在瓶頸有關。在其他方面，指導認為這可能意味著儘管燃料成本也較低，但今年的產量更高。所以，如果你能進一步解釋一下你如何看待未來的需求環境？然後第二個問題...

Yes, I'll start and then I'll let Jose add. So in terms of capacity, well, Copa itself is receiving 12 aircraft in the year. So that's quite a bit some capacity. And then our peers in Latin America are getting back to pre-pandemic levels, which was not the case in 2022, but will be the case from now on, the rest of 2023. So all of that together, plus there are other airlines, especially OCCs, which are growing faster than pre-pandemic. So when we add all of that up, it's a considerable number of additional seats in our region. Demand is there of course, so we're confident on the demand, and we're confident that there's enough demand, but more capacity plus lower fuel, usually, it tends to result in lower unit revenues.

是的，我先開始，然後讓 Jose 補充。因此，就容量而言，Copa 本身每年接收 12 架飛機。所以這是相當多的一些能力。然後我們在拉丁美洲的同行正在恢復到大流行前的水平，這在 2022 年不是這種情況，但從現在開始，即 2023 年的剩餘時間將會是這種情況。所以所有這些加在一起，還有其他航空公司，特別是 OCC，其增長速度比大流行前快。因此，當我們將所有這些加起來時，我們地區就會增加相當多的席位。需求當然存在，所以我們對需求充滿信心，我們相信有足夠的需求，但更多的產能加上更低的燃料，通常會導致單位收入下降。

Yes, Guilherme, in terms of the capacity movement that we made in terms of our full year guidance, it is, yes, related to the latest forecast that we have in terms of aircraft deliveries for the year. So that's what we have in terms of our best knowledge as of now in terms of new aircraft deliveries.

是的，Guilherme，就我們在全年指導方面所做的運力變動而言，是的，這與我們對今年飛機交付量的最新預測有關。這就是我們目前在新工藝交付方面的最佳知識。

Very clear. And the second question is in terms of the capital allocation. And naturally, the dividend's already out, you have the buyback open as well. So thinking that leverage remains below 1x net debt to EBITDA, if you see room for maybe an extraordinary payment or a more aggressive buyback?

非常清楚。第二個問題是在資本配置方面。當然，股息已經出來了。你也有回購開放。因此，認為槓桿率仍然低於淨債務與 EBITDA 的 1 倍，如果你看到空間或者可能是特別付款或更積極的回購？

I have to say that we reinstituted our dividend. The Board approved that back in March, and it's 40% of our prior year's adjusted net income. And so we're, I think, happy, I think, with that level. I would say that our buyback program, as you saw, continued to be active during this year, during the first part of the year. And I think that there's a couple of important points to make.

我不得不說我們重新設置了紅利。董事會在 3 月份批准了這一點，這是我們上一年調整後淨收入的 40%。因此，我認為，我認為我們對這個水平很滿意。我想說的是，正如您所見，我們的回購計劃在今年上半年繼續活躍。我認為有幾點需要說明。

Number one is that we have a sizable number of investments coming in related to aircraft for growth of our business. So I think that part of this capital that we have is geared towards growth of Copa itself. And number two, we have the convert, and we also have to -- want to have a lot of flexibility in terms of the management of that liability.

第一，我們有大量與飛機相關的投資，以促進我們的業務增長。所以我認為我們擁有的部分資金用於 Copa 本身的增長。第二，我們必須轉換，我們也必須——希望在管理該負債方面有很大的靈活性。

The next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg。

That was great forecast. A couple here. One, the move to add additional domestic service in Colombia by Wingo, was that in response to the suspension of Viva and Ultra? Is it a tactical move? Is it a harbinger of maybe getting bigger in the domestic Colombia? And is there an opportunity for you to maybe get some of the slots that will potentially be released as a result of consolidation and rationalization in the Colombian market? That's my first question.

這是一個很好的預測。這裡有一對。第一，Wingo 在哥倫比亞增加國內服務的舉動，是為了回應 [Veeva] 和 Ultra 的暫停嗎？這是戰術行動嗎？這是否預示著在哥倫比亞國內可能會變得更大？您是否有機會獲得一些可能因哥倫比亞市場整合和合理化而釋放的插槽？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. So a few things there, Michael. One is that Wingo is not really a large player in domestic Colombia. Wingo has 9 planes, as we know, it's 9 737-800s. And this capacity shift has to do with something that's been developing over the last number of months, which is more strength in the domestic market than in some of the international routes that have seen a lot more capacity. So it's tactical. It's tactical, it's limited. Yes, the shutdown of certain airlines has a positive effect, but actually benefits much more the other airlines, the other incumbents in Colombia. Wingo, again, is not significant, and it never really competed that much head on with the airlines that are no longer flying. So not a huge impact but there is a little bit better strength in the domestic, and that's why they reduced -- what Wingo has done is reduced frequencies in some of the international markets that were not doing as well and redeploy them in the domestic market that is doing better. So again, tactical.

好的。所以有幾件事，邁克爾。一是溫戈在哥倫比亞國內算不上真正的大牌球員。 Wingo 有 9 架飛機，我們知道，它是 9 737-800。這種運力轉移與過去幾個月一直在發展的事情有關，國內市場比一些運力大得多的國際航線更強大。所以這是戰術性的。這是戰術，它是有限的。是的，某些航空公司的關閉有積極影響，但實際上其他航空公司、哥倫比亞的其他老牌航空公司受益更多。 Wingo 又一次，並不重要，而且它從來沒有真正與航空公司競爭過那麼多。他們不再飛了。所以影響不大，但國內的實力稍好一些，這就是為什麼他們減少了 - Wingo 所做的是減少了一些我們做得不好的國際市場的頻率，並將它們重新部署到國內市場表現較好。再次，戰術。

Anything on the Bogota slots that potentially become available? Are you in line to try to grab some of those for your use?

預訂的波哥大老虎機上有什麼可能可用的嗎？您是否在排隊嘗試抓住其中一些供您使用？

Right. So although there are no plans to grow the Wingo fleet in an aggressive way -- we tend to be disciplined, and Wingo will continue taking advantage of opportunities and not just taking a bunch of aircraft. So Wingo will remain disciplined and opportunistic. But the Bogota slots are very important because it was very difficult for Wingo -- it is very difficult for Wingo to publish an advance schedule and fly at the right time, at the peak times when most passengers want to fly, because up to now the slots in Bogota has been dominated by a single carrier. And so hopefully, this is going to change and make Bogota, which is like the only -- or one of the very few slot-restricted airports in our continent, it will make it more competitive, and it will allow Wingo and others to offer service at the times passengers want to fly. So we see that as a positive development.

正確的。因此，儘管沒有計劃以積極的方式發展 Wingo 機隊，但我們傾向於遵守紀律，我們將繼續利用機會，而不僅僅是購買一堆飛機。所以 Wingo 將保持紀律和機會主義，但波哥大時段非常重要，因為這對 Wingo 來說非常困難 - Wingo 很難發布提前的時間表並在大多數乘客想要飛行的高峰時間在正確的時間飛行因為到目前為止，波哥大的航班時刻一直由一家航空公司壟斷。因此，希望這會有所改變，使波哥大成為我們大陸上唯一或極少數有航班時刻限制的機場之一，這將使它更具競爭力，並允許 Wingo 和其他人提供乘客想要飛行時的服務。所以我們認為這是一個積極的發展。

Okay. Great. And then this is just another sort of network question, Pedro. One of the things that we saw coming out of COVID is we saw a lot of the big global hubs initially only benefit from the recovery of local traffic. And I think as things have started to turn on, we're seeing a lot more what we call 6th Freedom traffic, 3rd and 4th Freedom connections, which is something that you specialize in. And so when you look at the commentary out of, say, a Turkish or an Emirates or a Cathay Pacific, you're really starting to see that benefit. And I think when I look at Copa and I look at capacity coming online by some of your competitors, where I think you really outshine the competition, is all of the connections that you fly in city pairs that nobody else serves. And I suspect that maybe that wasn't seeing as much service in the earlier part of the recovery period and that's starting to turn on now, and those are markets that are uniquely served by Copa. Is that right? Is that something that -- a trend that you've been seeing in your markets, or maybe your connecting markets turned on from day 1?

好的。偉大的。然後這只是另一種網絡問題，佩德羅。我們從 COVID 中看到的一件事是，我們看到許多大型全球樞紐最初僅受益於本地交通的恢復。而且我認為隨著事情的開始，我們看到了更多我們稱之為（聽不清）流量的東西，第三和第四自由連接，這是你的專長。所以當你看評論時，比如說，土耳其航空、阿聯酋航空或國泰航空，您真的開始看到這種好處。我認為，當我查看 Copa 時，我會查看您的一些競爭對手上線的容量，我認為您真正超越競爭對手的地方是您在城市對中飛行的所有連接，沒有其他人服務。而且我懷疑在恢復期的早期可能沒有看到那麼多的服務，現在開始開啟，而這些是 Copa 獨特服務的市場。是對的嗎？那是什麼——你在你的市場中看到的一種趨勢，或者你的連接市場從第一天就開始了。

Well, we've seen strength throughout our markets and throughout our network. And we're staying true to our vision and to our business model. So coming out of the pandemic, we went back to doing what we've always done in a very focused and disciplined way. And that demand has kind of been there from the beginning, I would say, but it's obviously stronger now and it continues to grow. It's holding up. And there's more capacity from other airlines and from ourselves coming in, but the whole market has improved. And yes, I think you're right. We have something unique about our network, and we hope to continue developing it.

好吧，我們在整個市場和整個網絡中都看到了實力。我們將忠於我們的願景和我們的商業模式。因此，從大流行病中走出來，我們又回到了我們一直以來以非常專注和有紀律的方式做的事情。我想說，這種需求從一開始就存在，但現在顯然更強勁，而且還在繼續增長。它堅持下去。其他航空公司和我們自己的運力增加了，但整個市場都有所改善。是的，我認為你是對的。我們的網絡有一些獨特之處，我們希望繼續發展它。

The next question comes from the line of Bruno Amorim from GS.

下一個問題來自 GS 的 Bruno Amorim。

Yes. So I'd like to hear from you, if possible, what's your vision for the next few years in terms of the competitive dynamics and the expected profitability for the business, of course adjusting for eventual volatility in macro conditions which might happen. My point here being that, if you look in the 2010 to 2014 cycle, margins were around 20% -- I'm talking about EBIT margin -- then between 2015 and '19 margins hovering around 15%. So if you were to guess for the next few years, are we more in the type of market that we saw between 2016 and '19, or is it possible to sustain margins around 20% even though you are not growing as much as back in that cycle 2010 to 2014 when the region was growing? But eventually, after the pandemic, you might see structurally less competition. Just trying to figure out what will be the new normal going forward, and it would be great to hear your thoughts around that.

是的。因此，如果可能的話，我想听聽您對未來幾年的競爭動態和業務預期盈利能力的看法。當然，要針對可能發生的宏觀環境的最終波動進行調整。我的意思是，如果你看看 2010 年到 2014 年的周期，利潤率約為 20%。我說的是息稅前利潤率，然後在 2015 年和 19 年之間徘徊在 15% 左右。因此，如果您猜測未來幾年，我們是否更多地處於我們在 2016 年至 19 年之間看到的市場類型，或者是否有可能維持 20% 左右的利潤率，即使您的增長不如當年那麼多2014 年周期，當時該地區正在增長。但最終，在大流行之後，你可能會在結構上看到競爭減少，只是想弄清楚未來的新常態是什麼，很高興聽到你對此的想法。

Okay. So we have provided guidance for 2023 only, not from -- not for the years after that. And I would like not to speculate much about the future. But I should say that we spend a lot of time working on improving every aspect of the company, what we've always done, and make Copa more competitive as we go and as we grow. We see right now, right now, what we can see now is a robust demand environment. We see a good future for our business model, focused on one hub of the Americas in Panama, and we see many opportunities to increase the connectivity and add new cities, and we will continue working towards a cost-competitive, on-time, passenger-friendly with an efficient and productive and motivated workforce. So that's what we do. That's what we will continue to do.

好的。因此，我們僅提供了 2023 年的指導，而不是從那以後的幾年。我不想對未來進行過多的推測。但我應該說，我們花了很多時間來改善公司的各個方面，我們一直在做的事情，讓 Copa 在我們前進和成長的過程中更具競爭力。我們現在看到的是一個強勁的需求環境。我們看到我們的商業模式有一個美好的未來，專注於巴拿馬的美洲樞紐，我們看到了許多增加連通性和增加新城市的機會，我們將繼續努力打造具有成本競爭力、準時的乘客- 與高效、多產和積極進取的員工隊伍友好相處。這就是我們所做的。這就是我們將繼續做的事情。

And it seems like the environment for such an airline to thrive in our part of the world is there and it might be getting better. So that's what we're working on. There's always competition, of course. Hopefully, there's room for the ones that have also a business model that makes sense for them and that's realistic with the size of the market. So as long as it's -- there's that balance, I think we'll be fine. And in any case, we hope to always be in a position to do better than the other. So that's our focus. But beyond 2023, I think we have to wait a few more earnings calls.

這樣一家航空公司在我們這個地區蓬勃發展的環境似乎已經存在，而且可能會變得更好。這就是我們正在努力的。當然，競爭總是存在的。希望那些也有對他們有意義的商業模式的人有空間，並且對於市場規模來說是現實的。所以只要它 - 有這種平衡，我認為我們會沒事的。無論如何，我們希望始終能夠比對方做得更好。這就是我們的重點。但 2023 年以後，我認為我們必須再等幾次財報電話會議。

If I may just ask a very quick follow-up then. After the capacity you expect to come back during the year, as you mentioned, will you be in the same position in terms of overlaps and competition overall vis-a-vis the pre-pandemic scenario, more or less competition? Can you comment on the competitive landscape after this capacity that you expect to come back is in place?

如果可以的話，只是一個非常快速的跟進。正如你所提到的，在你預計今年恢復的能力之後，與大流行前的情況相比，你是否會在重疊和總體競爭方面處於相同的位置，或多或少的競爭？您能否評論一下您希望恢復的產能到位後的競爭格局？

Well, I think -- I mean the competition is pretty public. So we probably kind of have the same information, but competition has changed. It's not -- I would say it's not less than before. If anything, it's more, it's more dynamic, maybe more aggressive, but it's changed in the sense that it's gone more towards the low-cost side of the spectrum. And in that sense, we are like one of the few remaining full-service airlines in our part of the world. And there's some -- there's a space for that. But there's a lot of competition, and we compete with all and we try to be as aggressive as anyone, especially since we've talked about a larger percent of passengers now are leisure than pre-pandemic.

好吧，我認為——我的意思是競爭是非常公開的。所以我們可能擁有相同的信息，但競爭發生了變化。它不是——我會說它不比以前少。如果有的話，它更多，它更有活力，也許更具侵略性，但它正在改變人們越來越傾向於頻譜的低成本方面的感覺。從這個意義上說，我們就像我們所在地區為數不多的提供全方位服務的航空公司之一。還有一些 - 有一個空間。但是有很多競爭，我們與所有人競爭，我們試圖像任何人一樣積極進取，特別是因為我們已經談到現在比大流行前有更大比例的休閒乘客。

The next question comes from the line of Helane Becker of Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

So you guys are coming up to New York next month and holding your Investor Day. When we think about things you can say, have you thought about the focus of that and what you can update us on? I don't want to run ahead of it, but I'm kind of wondering what to look forward to?

所以你們下個月要來紐約舉辦投資者日。當我們考慮你可以說的話時，你有沒有想過它的重點以及你可以告訴我們什麼？我不想跑在前面，但我有點想知道該期待什麼？

Well, hopefully, a good meal and a good Q&A session. But as you know, Helane, our story doesn't change much from year to year. We always stick to pretty much the same business model, which, as I was mentioning before, we try to always improve and make better. And hopefully, we'll talk about that, about what are we working on, what are we focusing on, what we're making better, what's working, what might need changes. But never big surprises. We tend to have like a way of doing things, and as long as doesn't need to be changed, we just look to improve it. So I would say, expect more of the same and maybe -- well, Jose, go ahead.

好吧，希望是一頓美餐和一個很好的問答環節。但正如你所知，Helane，我們的故事每年都沒有太大變化。我們總是堅持幾乎相同的商業模式，正如我之前提到的，我們試圖不斷改進並做得更好。希望我們會討論這一點，關於我們在做什麼，我們關注什麼，我們正在做得更好，什麼在起作用，什麼可能需要改變，但不要大驚小怪。我們傾向於有一種做事的方式，只要不需要改變，我們就希望改進它。所以我想說，期待更多相同的內容，也許——好吧，何塞，繼續吧。

I would just add, well, first of all, for certain things, Helane, we try to take one day at a time. So we're preparing earnestly for the earnings call, and then maybe next week we'll start working on the details of the Investor Day. But I would say a couple of things to add to what Pedro mentioned, number one, is that at our last Investor Day was here in Panama back at the end of 2019 before the pandemic. So we are cognizant that it's important for you to get face time with us. And I think part of what we have in store is also getting face time with members of management that are beyond us two. So I think that that's also an important part of it. And just simply provide an update on some of the initiatives that we had discussed back 3 years ago. So I think that's kind of what we have in mind.

我只想補充一點，好吧，首先，對於某些事情，Helane，我們嘗試一次只花一天時間。因此，我們正在認真準備財報電話會議，然後也許下週，我們將開始研究投資者日的細節。但我想說的是佩德羅提到的幾件事，第一，我們上一次投資者日是在大流行之前的 2019 年底在巴拿馬舉行的。因此，我們認識到與我們面對面交流對您來說很重要。而且我認為我們所擁有的部分內容也包括與我們之外的管理層成員進行面對面交流。所以我認為這也是其中重要的一部分。並且只是簡單地提供我們 3 年前討論過的一些舉措的最新情況。所以我認為這就是我們的想法。

And then my follow-up question is something I think, Jose, that you talked about, in terms of capital allocation with respect to share repurchase and the convert, which I think is callable. Did I interpret your answer correctly that either one of those is up -- is fair game, that you would buy back the convert if it made sense?

然後我的後續問題是我認為，何塞，你談到了關於股票回購和轉換的資本分配，我認為這是可贖回的。我是否正確地解釋了您的回答，即其中任何一個已啟動 - 您會買回以進行轉換的公平遊戲嗎？如果它有意義。

Yes. I don't want to speculate. I don't want to get into necessarily details of potential avenues that we might pursue. But I would say that we, at this stage, want to maintain flexibility in terms of the options that we have. So I think that the balance sheet is very, very strong and we have -- we want to keep alternatives open to minimize the cost for us in terms of the settlement of the convert. So -- and yes, we're also cognizant that the convert has a call option in there, and we -- all alternatives are on the table right now related to that.

是的。我不想推測。我不想詳述我們可能追求的潛在途徑的必要細節。但我要說的是，在現階段，我們希望在我們擁有的選項方面保持靈活性。因此，我認為資產負債表非常非常強大，我們有 - 我們希望保持替代方案開放，以最大限度地降低我們在轉換結算方面的成本。所以 - 是的，我們也認識到轉換在那裡有一個看漲期權，而且我們 - 所有替代方案現在每天都在桌面上（聽不清）。

The next question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Global.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Daniel McKenzie。

Congratulations on the quarter and the outlook here. Just have a couple of questions. The first really ties to revenue from premium seating. And I'm really just trying to get a basic understanding on this part of the story. So I guess, first, what percent of the revenue is it today versus what it was in 2019? And then just related to that, how quickly is that growing?

祝賀本季度和這裡的前景。只是有幾個問題。第一個真正與高級座位的收入有關。我真的只是想對故事的這一部分有一個基本的了解。所以我想，首先，今天的收入與 2019 年的收入相比是多少？然後與此相關的是，它的增長速度有多快？

Okay. So let me start and then I'll let Jose follow up. So then -- we don't share that specific information, but what I can say is that premium demand and premium yields are above pre-pandemic levels. So load factors are better, yields are better and premium seating profitability is better than pre-pandemic.

好的。那麼讓我開始吧，然後讓 Jose 跟進。那麼——我們不會分享具體信息，但我可以說的是，溢價需求和溢價收益率高於大流行前的水平。因此，與大流行前相比，載客率更好，收益率更高，高級座位的盈利能力也更好。

Yes. Well, and also our paid load factor in business class which we don't disclose, but we can say directionally that it is higher today than where it was back in 2019 as well. So I think that's another data point that's important.

是的。好吧，還有我們沒有透露的商務艙付費載客率，但我們可以從方向上說，今天的載客率也高於 2019 年的水平。所以我認為這是另一個重要的數據點。

Okay. And then I guess a second question here is just a question on the new distribution strategy that you've talked about in the past. What percent of the revenue is booked on Copa's website today versus the GDSs? And how does that compare to 2019? And then to what extent is that helping you to capture some additional revenue, say from upsell opportunities or bundling? And then tied to that, how material are the cost savings that you're seeing from this new strategy?

好的。然後我想這裡的第二個問題只是關於您過去談到的新分銷策略的問題，與 GDS 相比，今天在 Copa 網站上預訂的收入有多少？與 2019 年相比如何？然後，這在多大程度上幫助您獲得一些額外收入，比如來自追加銷售機會或捆綁銷售？然後與此相關，您從這個新戰略中看到的成本節約有多大？

Okay. I'll start and if I leave anything out -- so big, big picture. Pre-pandemic, we could say that 1/3 of our distribution was direct and 2/3 were indirect, so agencies and the like. And today, we're very close to flipping those numbers where 2/3 will be direct, including NDC connections, and 1/3 is going to be traditional travel agency, GDS bookings. So we're about to flip the numbers, the ratios, as I just mentioned. And that, of course, comes with considerable savings, including that we're charging a surcharge for traditional GDS bookings, which make up for any cost difference. So I don't know if we are sharing yet any cost saving numbers but when we add the revenue impact, so the revenue...

好的。我會開始，如果我遺漏了任何東西——那麼大，大圖景。大流行前，我們可以說 1/3 的分配是直接的，2/3 是間接的，所以代理等。今天，我們非常接近翻轉這些數字，其中 2/3 將是直接的，包括 NDC 連接，而 1/3 將是傳統旅行社，GBS 預訂。因此，正如我剛才提到的，我們即將翻轉數字和比率。當然，這會帶來可觀的節省，包括我們對傳統 GDS 預訂收取附加費，以彌補任何成本差異。所以我不知道我們是否正在分享任何節省成本的數字，但是當我們添加收入影響時，收入（聽不清）。

It's very positive. I mean, I think that so far -- I mean this -- first of all, we have to say that this started in Q3 of last year. So it is still an ongoing process that we have. But it is, from, let's say, ROI perspective or a cash perspective, performing, I think, as expected or barely a little bit better. But as Pedro mentioned, there's a portion of the benefit here that shows up [actually] in revenue because of the fact that we have a fee that we charge for sales that are not performed either on NDC channels or on our own direct channels.

我的意思是，我認為到目前為止——我的意思是——首先，我們不得不說這是從去年第三季度開始的。因此，這仍然是一個持續的過程。但比方說，從投資回報率的角度或現金的角度來看，我認為表現符合預期，或者可能更好一點。但正如佩德羅所提到的，這裡有一部分收益顯示了保理收入，因為我們對未在 NDC 渠道或我們自己的直接渠道上進行的銷售收取費用。

Now going forward, our expectation is that the actual cost -- pure cost of distribution should come down in the manner that our direct channel sales continue growing. So we have an expectation that that will come over the next several quarters. And that benefit, actually, that channel shift benefit then is included in the guidance of $0.061 guidance, at least for the end of this year. But again, this is a kind of a change of model and so it will be with us for many years to come.

現在展望未來，我們的期望是實際成本——純分銷成本應該以我們的直接渠道銷售繼續增長的方式下降。所以我們預計，這將在接下來的幾個季度內出現。實際上，渠道轉移的好處包括在 0.061 美元的指導中，至少在今年年底是這樣。但同樣，有一種模式的改變，所以它會伴隨我們很多年。

And as important is the fact that now we have much better control of our distribution, and that's going to allow us to do more things in the future that would lower costs and improve revenues, of course.

同樣重要的是，現在我們可以更好地控制我們的分銷，這將使我們能夠在未來做更多的事情，從而降低成本並提高收入，當然。

The next question comes from the line of Alberto Valerio of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Alberto Valerio。

Well done for the results. Sorry for being repetitive here, but it was amazing, the guidance that you guys just provided to us for the year. And I'm wondering here to find where was the difference between the guidance that you just provided in February -- mid-February from, 2.5 months later or 2 months later, the guidance that you guys are providing today. So we have talked about the demand already that's stronger, you said that also maybe higher exposure to the high income class with these business travelers. Is there anything else, like some exposure to regions, North America, South America, some different [jet] or something different from the people's style of traveling? If you could give me some information on that, it would help a lot.

結果做得很好。很抱歉重複的一年太棒了，你們剛剛為我們提供了這一年的指導。我想知道你們在 2 月——2 月中旬，即 2.5 個月後或 2 個月後提供的指導與你們今天提供的指導之間有何區別。因此，我們已經討論過您所說的需求已經很強烈，這些商務旅行者可能也會更多地接觸到高收入階層。是否還有其他類似地區或北美、南美的風險敞口，一些不同的債務或與旅行的人（聽不清）不同的東西，如果你能給我一些這方面的信息會有很大幫助。

So in a very simple way -- and I'll let Jose, if he needs to add anything or be more specific -- in a very simple way, what Jose mentioned before, we have now visibility on the first half of the year and a lower fuel curve. So those 2 things are the main drivers to the improved operating margin guidance.

所以以一種非常簡單的方式——如果 Jose 需要添加任何內容或更具體的話，我會讓 Jose 發言。以一種非常簡單的方式，正如 Jose 之前提到的，我們現在可以看到今年上半年和較低的燃料曲線。因此，這兩件事是提高營業利潤率指引的主要驅動力。

Yes. I would say that in terms of regional performance, I would say that most of our regions are performing very well, ahead of what we had before. And as Pedro mentioned, first half is performing well. And when you look at the operating margin guidance, we cannot forget about fuel as well. When we provided our guidance back in February, fuel was at higher level than where it is today as well.

是的。我想說，就區域表現而言，我想說我們大多數地區的表現都比以前好。正如佩德羅所說，上半年表現良好。當您查看營業利潤率指南時，我們也不能忘記燃料。當我們在 2 月份提供指導時，燃料的水平也高於今天。

We can say also that competition is less fierce than it was in the past, because when we see fuel drop in the past, we see yields come down. And according to the guidance that you guys provided, yours could be flat for the year, even which if you're growing double-digits [now]?

我們還可以說過去這裡的競爭較少，因為過去當我們看到燃料下降時，我們會看到產量下降。根據你們提供的指導，今年你們可能持平，如果你們現在以兩位數增長？

No, not necessarily. As I mentioned before, our RASM guidance implies a lower RASM for the second half of 2023 than the actual RASM we delivered for the second half of 2022, the year before. So we are factoring in a lower than 2022 RASM, and that's the lower fuel curve and capacity from competitors. But again, having the better visibility for the first half of the year allowed us to adjust RASM upwards for the full year.

不，不一定。正如我之前提到的，我們的 RASM 指南暗示 2023 年下半年的 RASM 低於我們前一年交付的 2022 年下半年的實際 RASM。所以我們考慮的是低於 2022 RASM，這是來自競爭對手的較低的燃料曲線和容量。但同樣，今年上半年更好的能見度使我們能夠向上調整全年的 RASM。

Fantastic, fantastic. And my last one here on the working capital. It came a little bit above what we had estimated for the quarter. Just wondering whether it's something not recurring on this quarter on the working capital matters.

太棒了，太棒了。我最後一個關於營運資金的問題。它略高於我們對該季度的估計。只是想知道本季度是否沒有在營運資金問題上重複出現。

I would say, Alberto, that we had -- from an (inaudible) perspective, I think even though (inaudible) is actually down for the quarter, sales are still ahead. I think there's some items there related to some refunds of tickets and expired coupons, et cetera. But it's -- I think there's also seasonality in there as well. So that's the main drivers there.

我想說，阿爾貝托，我們有——從（聽不清）的角度來看，我認為我們的單曲（聽不清）實際上在本季度有所下降。銷量還是領先的。我認為那裡有一些項目與一些門票退款和過期優惠券等有關。但它 - 我認為那裡也有季節性。這就是那裡的主要驅動因素。

The next question comes from the line of (inaudible) of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rogerio Araujo。

Yes. Actually, this is Rogerio Araujo. I have one question. Last time we saw margins close to where Copa is delivering was prior to 2015. If I'm not mistaken, Venezuela was doing great at the time, was actually pushing that margin upward significantly. On an apples-to-apples basis, is there a reason to believe that Copa is actually much more profitable now than at that time? Let me put in other words this question: any reason to believe that Copa structural margin is higher now than before? If so, where does it mostly come from in your view?

是的。實際上，這是 Rogerio Araujo。我有一個問題。上次我們看到的利潤率接近 2015 年之前 Copa 交付的水平。如果我沒記錯的話，委內瑞拉當時做得很好，實際上正在顯著提高利潤率。在同類基礎上，是否有理由相信 Copa 現在的利潤實際上比當時高得多。讓我說——換句話說，這個問題，有什麼理由相信 Copa 的結構性利潤率現在比以前更高？如果是這樣，在您看來它主要來自哪裡。

Yes. Thank you, Rogerio. As I mentioned before, we're always working towards being a more competitive airline. And we never bank on strong revenues because we know there are cycles in our industry. What we bank on is having competitive cost and being more efficient and more productive. And we are a much more efficient and productive airline than back then in 2013, 2014. The bigger changes? Well, we have a lower CASM-ex and so we're more efficient in that sense. We've worked hard to improve our CASM-ex. So we have better unit cost, which allows us to be more profitable even with lower yields. And part of that is also having a more effective, efficient fleet.

是的。謝謝你，羅傑里奧。正如我之前提到的，我們一直在努力成為一家更具競爭力的航空公司。我們從不寄希望於強勁的收入，因為我們知道我們的行業存在周期。我們所依賴的是具有競爭力的成本以及更高效和更高產。與 2013 年和 2014 年相比，我們是一家效率更高、生產力更高的航空公司。更大的變化是我們的 CASM Ex 更低，因此我們在這個意義上更有效率。我們一直在努力改進我們的 CASM ex。所以我們有更好的單位成本，這使我們即使在收益率較低的情況下也能獲得更多利潤。其中一部分還在於擁有一支更有效、更高效的車隊。

We have a single fleet, mostly 737-800 and MAX 9, which have better -- much better operating cost than back then. And we've done a number of things, it will probably be a long list, to be more efficient. But for example, we do our own C-Checks in-house. We didn't do that back then. The distribution strategy is yielding results. And there's probably -- there is a list of other of other initiatives. We have densified the fleet somewhat and there's more to come. So yes, we're much more competitive and have better unit costs and more efficient that when we were -- what we were back then in 2011, 2012, 2013, when we had a similar margin, but maybe revenues were stronger.

我們只有一個機隊，主要是 737-800 和 MAX 9，它們的運營成本比當時要好得多。我們已經做了很多事情。提高效率可能會是一個很長的清單。但是，例如，我們在內部進行自己的 [C] 檢查。那時我們沒有這樣做。分配策略正在產生結果。可能還有其他倡議的清單。我們已經在一定程度上增加了艦隊的密度，而且還會有更多。所以，是的，我們比以前更具競爭力，單位成本更低，效率更高——我們在 2011 年、2012 年、2013 年的情況，當時我們的利潤率相似，但收入可能更高。

Okay. Pretty clear. Congratulations for the very strong results and all these cost reduction and efficiency in the past years.

好的。很清楚。祝賀過去幾年取得的非常好的結果以及所有這些成本降低和效率。

The next question comes from the line of Josh Milberg of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Milberg。

Pedro, Jose, good to talk to you guys and big congrats on the results. I had a couple of follow-ups and please forgive any repetitiveness on my side. One is you touched on the issue of your -- what your competitors are doing in terms of bringing back capacity, but I was just hoping you could comment a little further on that issue, how much it's been impacted by aircraft delivery delays, and also just on the Avianca side, if you've been seeing any impact from that airline's shift in strategy with respect to network or in any other sense. That's the first question.

佩德羅、何塞，很高興與你們交談，並對結果表示熱烈祝賀。我有幾個後續行動，請原諒我這邊的任何重複。一是你談到了你的問題——你的競爭對手在恢復能力方面正在做什麼，但我只是希望你能就這個問題進一步發表評論。飛機交付延誤對它的影響有多大。而且就在 Avianca 方面，如果你看到航空公司在網絡或任何其他方面的戰略轉變產生的任何影響，那就是第一個問題。

And then the second question is if you could comment a little bit further on your fleet plan and what it could mean for capacity growth in 2024. I know you said before that it's sort of early days to be getting into next year. But I know that you have the 737-800s that are scheduled to come off lease. I think your plan shows you holding on to those. So any color there would be great.

然後第二個問題是你是否可以進一步評論你的機隊計劃以及它對 2024 年的容量增長意味著什麼。我知道你之前說過進入明年還為時過早。但我知道您有 737-800 飛機計劃結束租賃。我認為你的計劃表明你堅持這些。所以任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes, yes. Thank you, Josh. So I'll talk on fleet plan second, but we have -- well, I'll talk fleet plan first because we have published 2024. So we're getting 12 aircraft this year, and we've published that we're getting 8 MAX 8 next year, but it would have been more before if not for Boeing delays. As we know, Boeing, Airbus, everyone has delayed. So the delays are between 3 and 4 months in some cases, could be even longer for next year. So we have published 8. We hope to get more. Hopefully, we can get more than 8 once we get the latest information from Boeing. We also have a number of leases that come due, and we will renew -- we'll try to renew as many as we need to. And it all depends on how many deliveries we get from Boeing. So it's kind of like a dance, the dance of the assets, of the aircraft assets. So we need to balance the lease expirations with the Boeing deliveries with the demand forecast. And right now, it all looks good, actually. So we're hopeful that we'll get more aircraft and demand will remain strong as it is right now. Now, if you want to add anything to fleet, Jose?

是的是的。謝謝你，喬希。所以我會先談機隊計劃，但我們有——我們先談機隊計劃，因為我們已經發布了 2024 年。所以我們今年將獲得 12 架飛機，我們已經公佈了我們將獲得 8 架，MAX 8明年，但如果不是波音公司的延誤，它本來會更多。正如我們所知，波音空客，每個人都有延遲。因此，在某些情況下，延遲時間在 3 到 4 個月之間，明年可能會更長。所以我們已經發布了 8 個。我們希望得到更多。希望一旦我們從波音公司獲得最新信息，我們可以獲得超過 8 個。我們還有一些到期的租約，我們將續約——我們將嘗試根據需要續約。這完全取決於我們從波音公司獲得的交付量。所以它有點像銀行在資產、飛機資產方面的舞蹈。因此，我們需要在租賃到期與波音交付與需求預測之間取得平衡。而現在，這一切看起來都很好，實際上。因此，我們希望我們能獲得更多的飛機，並且需求將像現在一樣保持強勁。現在，如果你想給艦隊添加什麼，何塞？

Yes. I think that's very complete. In terms of 2024, as Pedro mentioned, we have right now our plan is published in our Investor Relations website, including the 8 aircraft that Pedro mentioned for 2024.

是的。我認為這是非常完整的。就 2024 年而言，正如 Pedro 提到的，我們現在已經在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了我們的計劃，包括 Pedro 提到的 2024 年的 8 架飛機。

Right. In terms of competitors, I'm not sure there's much more to say, I don't like to give them like free advertising or anything like that. But you asked about Avianca. We, of course, compete quite a bit against Avianca. We have always competed with Avianca, even though we're also together in Star Alliance, and we have code sharing and frequent flyer reciprocity. So I would say it's a friendly and healthy competition. And they're still growing their hub. They're also flying non-stop. They've changed their model. So they have -- they went through a Chapter 11. So they are a strong competitor, no doubt. And does it show? Is it noticeable? Of course it is. But we're also growing and competing. So there's a balance, there's some sort of a balance there. As they grow and compete, so do we.

正確的。就競爭對手而言，我不確定還有什麼要說的，我不喜歡給他們免費廣告之類的東西。但你問的是 Avianca。當然，我們與 Avianca 的競爭相當激烈。我們一直與 Avianca 競爭。儘管我們也在星空聯盟中，我們有代碼共享和飛行常客互惠。所以我會說這是一場友好而健康的比賽。他們仍在發展他們的中心。他們也在不停地飛行。他們改變了他們的模式。所以他們 - 他們去了（聽不清）。因此，毫無疑問，他們是一個強大的競爭對手。它顯示了嗎？很明顯嗎？當然如此。但我們也在成長和競爭。所以有一個平衡，隨著他們的成長和競爭，那裡有某種平衡，我們也是。

And in terms of the rest, well, they're pretty much back to pre-pandemic capacity as we are. So is LATAM and others that were smaller back then are probably above those levels. So we're in a dynamic market with strong demand, and I think it's what would be expected in any case.

就其他人而言，嗯，他們幾乎像我們一樣恢復到大流行前的能力。 LATAM 和其他當時規模較小的國家也可能高於這些水平。因此，我們處於一個需求強勁的動態市場中，我認為這在任何情況下都是可以預期的。

The next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

This is Jake Gunning on for Duane. So just to put a finer point on previous questions about geographic demand strength, on a previous call you talked about point of sale for U.S. versus local, could you talk about just how that's trending now?

這是杜安的傑克·岡寧。因此，只是為了更好地說明之前關於地理需求強度的問題。在之前的電話中，您談到了美國與當地的銷售點，您能談談現在的趨勢嗎？

I don't know if it's -- I don't think it's changed much. We see strength in most of our regions and markets. Maybe South America is not as strong, relatively speaking, as it was before. So South America is not as strong, but still positive, but that could change from one quarter to the other. And U.S. point of sale remains pretty strong, even though the currency, the U.S. dollar, has lost a little bit of value, still has a lot of strength. And the economy, as we know, in the U.S. is still strong. Even though efforts were being made to slow it down, it's resilient. So there's still strength in U.S. point of sale. So I don't think anything has changed that much from our previous call.

我不知道它是否——我認為它沒有太大變化。我們在大多數地區和市場都看到了實力。也許南美洲相對來說沒有以前那麼強大了。所以南美洲沒有那麼強勁，但仍然是積極的，但這可能會從一個季度到另一個季度發生變化，美國的銷售點仍然相當強勁，儘管貨幣，美元已經失去了一點價值，仍然有一個很多力量。正如我們所知，美國的經濟仍然強勁。儘管正在努力減慢它的速度，但它是有彈性的。因此，美國銷售點仍有優勢。所以我認為與我們之前的電話會議相比沒有任何變化。

And then on capacity, just given demand strength and the capacity constraints, where or how much more would you want to grow without these constraints?

然後在容量方面，僅考慮到需求強度和容量限制，如果沒有這些限制，您希望在哪里或增加多少？

So our fleet plan, I think, is a good reflection of our growth plan. We're getting 12 MAX 9s this year. Next year, we have published 8 MAX 8s we'll be getting. But as I mentioned, if we could get more -- because we were supposed to get more, but due to delays, we're not getting them all in 2024, the ones we were expecting to get originally. So if we can get a few more, we'll be very happy, and we're waiting to hear from Boeing, maybe that would happen. So that gives you an idea of our growth, which is in the double-digit range.

所以我認為我們的機隊計劃很好地反映了我們的增長計劃。今年我們將獲得 12 MAX 9。明年，我們已經發布了 8 MAX 8，我們將獲得。但正如我提到的，如果我們能得到更多，因為我們應該得到更多。但由於延誤，我們無法在 2024 年全部獲得我們最初期望獲得的那些。因此，如果我們能再獲得一些，我們會非常高興，我們正在等待波音公司的消息，也許這會發生。所以這讓你了解我們的增長，這是在兩位數的範圍內。

No, I was just going to say, Jake, that I think a good way to look at it, and this is just theoretical, of course, but look at the preliminary full year guidance that we issued back in November, it had a 15% growth. And so that was -- you could argue that our regional expectation of what we wanted. So yes.

不，我只是想說，傑克，我認為這是一個很好的看待它的方式，當然這只是理論上的，但看看我們在 11 月發布的初步全年指導，有 15%生長。這就是 - 我們可以爭辯說我們對我們想要的地方的區域期望。所以是的。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Pedro Heilbron.

謝謝。我現在想把電話轉回 Pedro Heilbron。

Yes, thank you very much. And so thank you all. This concludes our earnings call for the first quarter of 2023. And so I'll take also this opportunity to announce that we'll have our Investor Day, as I think Helane mentioned. It's going to be on June 22 in New York City. You should be getting the invitations and any other details in the next couple of days. So hope to see you then next month, and have a great day. Thank you as always for your support.

是的謝謝你。謝謝大家。我們 2023 年第一季度的收益電話會議到此結束。因此，我也將藉此機會宣布我們將舉辦投資者日，正如我認為 Helane 提到的那樣。將於 6 月 22 日在紐約市舉行。您應該會在接下來的幾天內收到邀請函和任何其他詳細信息。所以希望下個月見到你，祝你有美好的一天。謝謝您一如既往的支持。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. That concludes the presentation. You may disconnect and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。演示文稿到此結束。您可能會斷開連接並度過美好的一天。