Copa Holdings SA (CPA) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Copa Holdings Second Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being webcast and recorded on August 10, 2023. I will now turn the conference over to Daniel Tapia, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may go ahead.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Copa Holdings 第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議將於 2023 年 8 月 10 日進行網絡直播並錄製。我現在將會議轉交給投資者關係總監 Daniel Tapia。先生，您可以繼續了。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone, to our second quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings; and Jose Montero, our CFO.

謝謝詹姆斯，歡迎大家參加我們的第二季度財報電話會議。今天加入我們的是 Copa Holdings 首席執行官 Pedro Heilbron；和我們的首席財務官何塞蒙特羅。

First, Pedro will start by going over our second quarter highlights, followed by Jose, who will discuss our financial results. Immediately after, we will open the call for questions from analysts. Copa Holdings' financial reports have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards.

首先，佩德羅將首先回顧我們第二季度的亮點，然後何塞將討論我們的財務業績。緊接著，我們將開始徵集分析師提問。 Copa Holdings 的財務報告是根據國際財務報告準則編制的。

In today's call, we will discuss non-IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of the non-IFRS to IFRS financial measures can be found in our earnings release, which has been posted on the company's website, copaair.com.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論非國際財務報告準則的財務指標。非國際財務報告準則與國際財務報告準則財務指標的調節可以在我們的收益報告中找到，該報告已發佈在公司網站 copaair.com 上。

Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts, that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and/or intentions regarding future events and results. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC.

我們今天的討論還將包含前瞻性陳述，不限於歷史事實，反映公司當前對未來事件和結果的信念、期望和/或意圖。這些前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且基於可能發生變化的假設。其中許多內容在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度報告中進行了討論。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heilbron.

現在我想將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Pedro Heilbron 先生。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning to all, and thanks for participating in our second quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to all of our workers for their commitment to the company. Their continuous efforts and dedication have kept Copa at the forefront of Latin American aviation. To them, as always, my highest regards and admiration.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的第二季度財報電話會議。在開始之前，我謹向所有員工對公司的奉獻表示誠摯的謝意。他們的不斷努力和奉獻使 Copa 始終處於拉丁美洲航空業的前沿。一如既往，我向他們致以最崇高的敬意和欽佩。

Today, we're pleased to report solid results for the second quarter. Our unit revenues continue to benefit from a healthy demand environment in the region. While our unit costs came in lower year-over-year mainly driven by a lower jet fuel price and our consistent focus on delivering low ex fuel unit costs. Among the main highlights for the quarter, passenger traffic grew 15.4% compared to the same period in 2022, outpacing our capacity growth of 13.6%. This resulted in a load factor of 86.1%, a 1.3 percentage point increase versus Q2 '22.

今天，我們很高興地報告第二季度的穩健業績。我們的單位收入繼續受益於該地區健康的需求環境。雖然我們的單位成本同比下降，主要是由於航空燃油價格較低以及我們一貫致力於提供低燃油單位成本。本季度的主要亮點之一是客運量與 2022 年同期相比增長了 15.4%，超過了我們 13.6% 的運力增長。這使得負載率達到 86.1%，比 22 年第二季度增加了 1.3 個百分點。

Passenger yields came in at $0.133 or 2% higher than the second quarter of 2022, resulting in unit revenues or RASM of $0.12, a 2.7% increase compared to the second quarter of 2022. Our unit cost decreased 17%, mostly as a result of a 35.9% year-over-year drop in our effective jet fuel prices.

客運收益率為 0.133 美元，比 2022 年第二季度高出 2%，單位收入或 RASM 為 0.12 美元，比 2022 年第二季度增長 2.7%。我們的單位成本下降了 17%，主要是由於我們的有效航空燃油價格同比下降35.9%。

On an ex-fuel unit cost basis, we came in at $0.059, almost 1% lower compared to Q2 2022. As a result, our operating margin came in at 24.1%, 18 percentage points higher than in the second quarter of 2022.

以不含燃料的單位成本計算，我們的收入為0.059 美元，比2022 年第二季度低了近1%。因此，我們的營業利潤率為24.1%，比2022 年第二季度高出18 個百分點。

On the operational front, Copa Holdings delivered an on-time performance of 91.6% and a completion factor of 99.8%. Once again, the highest in the Americas and one of the best in the world.

在運營方面，Copa Holdings 的準時率達 91.6%，完工率達 99.8%。再次成為美洲最高、世界最好的之一。

Additionally, in July, Copa Holdings was recognized by Skytrax for the eighth consecutive year as the best airline in Central America and the Caribbean. This award and our leading operational numbers are a testament to our employees' continuous focus on our customer satisfaction.

此外，7 月，Copa Holdings 連續第八年被 Skytrax 評為中美洲和加勒比地區最佳航空公司。該獎項和我們領先的運營數據證明了我們的員工持續關注客戶滿意度。

With regards to our network, we recently announced the start of a new service to Barquisimeto, Venezuela in October of this year. With this addition, we will serve 81 destinations in 32 countries in North, Central, South America and the Caribbean. As we continue strengthening and solidifying our position as the most complete and convenient hub in Latin America.

關於我們的網絡，我們最近宣佈於今年 10 月開始開通飛往委內瑞拉巴基西梅託的新服務。新增航班後，我們將為北美洲、中美洲、南美洲和加勒比地區 32 個國家的 81 個目的地提供服務。隨著我們不斷加強和鞏固我們作為拉丁美洲最完整、最便捷的樞紐的地位。

Turning now to Wingo. In June, Wingo continued to optimize its network with the start of operations to 3 new domestic Colombia routes from Bogota to Barranquilla, Pereira and Bucaramanga. Additionally, in July, a storage service from Bogota to Caracas, Venezuela, and one seasonal route from Cali to Aruba. With these additions, Wingo is currently operating 35 routes with service to 23 cities in 11 countries.

現在轉向Wingo。 6月，Wingo繼續優化網絡，開通了從波哥大到巴蘭基亞、佩雷拉和布卡拉曼加的3條新的哥倫比亞國內航線。此外，7 月份還開通了從波哥大到委內瑞拉加拉加斯的倉儲服務，以及從卡利到阿魯巴的季節性航線。加上這些新增航線，Wingo 目前運營著 35 條航線，服務於 11 個國家的 23 個城市。

Now turning to our current expectations for the remainder of the year. We continue to see a healthy demand environment in the region going forward. And although we're seeing a recent increase in jet fuel prices, we continue to expect strong financial results in 2023. As always, Jose will provide more detail regarding the full year's outlook.

現在轉向我們目前對今年剩餘時間的預期。我們繼續看到該地區未來健康的需求環境。儘管我們看到最近航空燃油價格上漲，但我們仍然預計 2023 年將實現強勁的財務業績。與往常一樣，何塞將提供有關全年前景的更多詳細信息。

To summarize, we delivered solid second quarter results, and we continue to see a healthy demand environment in the region. We continue growing and strengthening our network, the most complete and convenient hub for intra-Latin America travel. Copa Holdings was recognized once again by Skytrax as the best airline in Central America and the Caribbean. And as always, our team continues to deliver world-leading operational results while maintaining our costs low.

總而言之，我們第二季度業績強勁，我們繼續看到該地區健康的需求環境。我們不斷發展和加強我們的網絡，這是拉丁美洲內部旅行最完整、最便捷的樞紐。 Copa Holdings 再次被 Skytrax 評為中美洲和加勒比地區最佳航空公司。與往常一樣，我們的團隊繼續提供世界領先的運營成果，同時保持較低的成本。

Lastly, we're as confident as ever in our business model. We continue to deliver solid margins and low unit costs while offering a great product to our passengers, making us the best positioned airline in our region to consistently deliver industry-leading results.

最後，我們對我們的商業模式一如既往地充滿信心。我們繼續提供可觀的利潤和較低的單位成本，同時為乘客提供優質的產品，使我們成為本地區定位最佳的航空公司，始終如一地提供行業領先的業績。

Now I'll turn it over to Jose, who will go over our financial results in more detail.

現在我將把它交給何塞，他將更詳細地審查我們的財務業績。

Thank you, Pedro. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for being with us today. I'd like to join Pedro in acknowledging our great team for all their efforts to deliver a world-class service to our passengers. I will start by going over our second quarter results.

謝謝你，佩德羅。大家，早安。感謝您今天和我們在一起。我想與佩德羅一起感謝我們偉大的團隊為向乘客提供世界一流的服務所做的一切努力。我首先回顧一下我們第二季度的業績。

We reported a net profit for the quarter of $17.5 million or $0.44 per share. However, excluding special items, net profit came in at $154.5 million or $3.92 per share. Second quarter special items are comprised of an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $137.5 million related to the company's convertible notes and a $500,000 unrealized mark-to-market gain related to changes in the value of financial investments. We reported a quarterly operating profit of $194.7 million and an operating margin of 24.1%.

我們報告本季度淨利潤為 1750 萬美元，即每股 0.44 美元。然而，不包括特殊項目，淨利潤為 1.545 億美元，即每股 3.92 美元。第二季度特殊項目包括與公司可轉換票據相關的未實現按市價計價虧損 1.375 億美元，以及與金融投資價值變化相關的未實現按市價計價 50 萬美元收益。我們公佈的季度營業利潤為 1.947 億美元，營業利潤率為 24.1%。

Capacity came in at $6.8 billion available seat miles, 13.6% higher than in Q2 2022. Our load factor came in at 86.1% for the quarter, a 1.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period in 2022. While passenger yields increased 2% to $0.133. As a result, unit revenues came in at $0.12 or 2.7% higher than in the second quarter of 2022.

運力達到 68 億美元的可用座位里程，比 2022 年第二季度增長 13.6%。本季度的載客率為 86.1%，比 2022 年同期增長 1.3 個百分點。乘客收益增長 2%， 0.133 美元。因此，單位收入比 2022 年第二季度高出 0.12 美元，即 2.7%。

Mainly driven by lower jet fuel prices, unit cost or CASM decreased to $0.091 or 17% lower than our CASM in Q2 2022. And finally, our CASM, excluding fuel, came in at $0.059, a 0.8% decrease versus Q2 2022, mainly driven by lower sales and distribution costs due to a higher penetration of both direct sales and the lower cost travel agency channels, which were launched by Copa Airlines in September 2022. I'm going to spend some time now discussing our balance sheet and liquidity.

主要是由於航空燃油價格下降，單位成本或CASM 下降至0.091 美元，比2022 年第二季度的CASM 低17%。最後，我們的CASM（不包括燃油）為0.059 美元，比2022 年第二季度下降0.8%，主要是由於由於直銷和低成本旅行社渠道的滲透率較高，銷售和分銷成本較低，巴拿馬航空公司於2022 年9 月推出了這些渠道。我現在將花一些時間討論我們的資產負債表和流動性。

As of the end of Q2, we had assets of close to $5.1 billion. And in terms of cash, short- and long-term investments, we ended the quarter with over $1.3 billion, which represents 39.6% of our last 12 months' revenues. As to our debt, we ended the quarter with $1.8 billion in debt and lease liabilities, it came in with an adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.5x. I'd also like to take some time to discuss the settlement of our convertible notes.

截至第二季度末，我們的資產接近 51 億美元。就現金、短期和長期投資而言，本季度末我們的收入超過 13 億美元，占我們過去 12 個月收入的 39.6%。至於我們的債務，本季度末我們的債務和租賃負債為 18 億美元，調整後的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 0.5 倍。我還想花一些時間討論我們可轉換票據的結算。

As we announced last month, the company has decided to redeem the 4.5% convertible senior notes due in 2025 on September 18, 2023 in accordance with the terms established in the indentor governing denotes. The conversion rate has been established to be 20.1603 shares for each $1,000.

正如我們上個月宣布的那樣，公司決定根據票據管理票據中規定的條款，於 2023 年 9 月 18 日贖回 2025 年到期的 4.5% 可轉換優先票據。轉換率為每 1,000 美元兌換 20.1603 股。

This rate includes an additional 0.4751 shares related to the event being a make-whole fundamental change. We decided to perform the settlement via the net share method whereby we will settle in cash an amount equal to the principal amount of the notes and the remainder is to be settled via the issuance of the corresponding number of shares. Turning now to our fleet.

該比率包括與整體根本性變化事件相關的額外 0.4751 股。我們決定通過淨份額法進行結算，即我們將以現金結算相當於票據本金額的金額，其餘部分將通過發行相應數量的股份來結算。現在轉向我們的艦隊。

During the second quarter, we received 2 Boeing 737 MAX 9s to end the quarter with a total of 101 aircraft. In July, we received an additional 737 MAX 9 to bring our total fleet to 102 aircraft. With these additions, our total fleet is now comprised of 68 737-800s, 25 737 MAX 9s and 9 737-700s. These figures include 1 737-800 freighter and the 9 737-800s operated by Wingo. 2/3 of our fleet continues to be comprised of owned aircraft and 1/3 of our aircraft are under operating leases.

第二季度，我們收到了 2 架波音 737 MAX 9 飛機，截至本季度末，飛機總數達到 101 架。 7 月，我們又接收了一架 737 MAX 9，使我們的機隊總數達到 102 架。增加這些飛機後，我們的機隊總數現在包括 68 737-800、25 737 MAX 9 和 9 737-700。這些數字包括 Wingo 運營的 1 737-800 架貨機和 9 737-800 架。我們機隊的 2/3 仍然由自有飛機組成，1/3 的飛機是經營租賃飛機。

During the remainder of 2023, we expect to receive 5 additional aircraft, all Boeing 737 MAX 9s to end the year with a total fleet of 107 aircraft. As for our 2024 fleet plan, preliminarily, next year, we expect to receive 14 737 MAX aircraft, including 2 737 MAX 9s and 12 737 MAX 8s. We've published an updated fleet plan on our Investor Relations website.

在 2023 年剩餘時間內，我們預計將再接收 5 架飛機，全部為波音 737 MAX 9 飛機，到年底機隊總數將達到 107 架。至於我們的2024年機隊計劃，初步預計明年將接收14 737 MAX飛機，其中包括2 737 MAX 9和12 737 MAX 8。我們在投資者關係網站上發布了更新的機隊計劃。

I'm also pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has ratified the third dividend payment of the year of $0.82 per share to be paid on October 13 to all shareholders of record as of September 29. As to our outlook, we can provide the following guidance update for the full year 2023. We expect to increase our capacity in ASMs versus 2022 within a range of 12% to 13%, and we expect an operating margin within the range of 22% to 24%.

我還很高興地宣布，我們的董事會已批准今年第三次股息支付，每股 0.82 美元，將於 10 月 13 日支付給截至 9 月 29 日在冊的所有股東。至於我們的前景，我們可以提供繼2023 年全年指導更新後。我們預計與2022 年相比，我們的ASM 產能將增加12% 至13% 範圍內，我們預計營業利潤率將在22% 至24% 範圍內。

We're basing our outlook on the following assumptions: Load factor of approximately 86%; unit revenues within the range of $0.123; CASM ex-fuel to be in the range of $0.06; and we're expecting an all-in fuel price of $2.95 per gallon. Given this recent increase in jet fuel prices, we expect to be on the lower side of the 22% to 24% operating margin range.

我們的展望基於以下假設： 載客率約為 86%；單位收入在 0.123 美元範圍內； CASM 不含燃油價格在 0.06 美元範圍內；我們預計總燃油價格為每加侖 2.95 美元。鑑於最近航空燃油價格的上漲，我們預計運營利潤率將處於 22% 至 24% 範圍內的較低水平。

I'd also like to take this opportunity to assure you that we continue to be focused on our plan to further reduce our unit costs. Our objective is to attain a CASM ex-fuel within a range of $0.58 by the year 2025.

我還想藉此機會向您保證，我們將繼續專注於進一步降低單位成本的計劃。我們的目標是到 2025 年將 CASM 不含燃料費用控制在 0.58 美元的範圍內。

Thank you. And with that, we'll open the call to some questions.

謝謝。接下來，我們將開始詢問一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Can I ask on the unit revenue. Just -- which was lower, are you seeing any kind of softness to drive that reduction? Or is this kind of something else going on given that the second quarter came in pretty strong?

我可以問一下單位收入嗎？只是——哪一個更低，你是否看到任何推動這種下降的疲軟因素？或者考慮到第二季度的表現相當強勁，還會發生其他事情嗎？

Yes. The operating environment is still very robust. We had been seeing a drop in fuel prices throughout the second quarter. And so there was some movement in our sort of forward-looking unit revenues in the coming months. (inaudible), I think that of note that we're monitoring closely. So there was an increase in competitive capacity year-over-year in the double-digit range.

是的。運營環境仍然非常穩健。我們在整個第二季度都看到燃油價格下降。因此，未來幾個月我們的前瞻性單位收入出現了一些變化。 （聽不清），我認為值得注意的是我們正在密切監視。因此，競爭能力同比呈兩位數增長。

So all those factors, I think, were taken into account in terms of what the RASM was or is going to be in the second half of the year. Fuel spiked over the last couple of weeks, so that's not necessarily fully captured into our revenue guidance, given the sort of movement of fuel. And it's still somewhat early for Q4. So we'll monitor it closely, but that's how kind of we're seeing it in the close end.

因此，我認為所有這些因素都已在今年下半年的 RASM 計劃或計劃中考慮在內。過去幾週燃料價格飆升，因此考慮到燃料的變動情況，這不一定完全反映在我們的收入指導中。第四季度還為時過早。所以我們會密切關注它，但這就是我們在最後階段看到的情況。

And I should add, Savi, that bookings are still strong for the second half of the year, or as far as we can see, rather.

薩維，我應該補充一點，下半年的預訂量仍然強勁，或者據我們所知，預訂量仍然強勁。

Still a very robust environment.

仍然是一個非常強大的環境。

That's super helpful. And if I might, on the 2024 fleet plan, it looks like even though you had some MAX flipping, you've taken the MAX count up? And just any early thoughts on how you're thinking about capacity growth into 2024, especially given that your utilization in 2023 is quite strong.

這非常有幫助。順便問一下，在 2024 年機隊計劃中，即使您對 MAX 進行了一些翻轉，您還是已經將 MAX 計數增加了？關於您如何考慮 2024 年產能增長的任何早期想法，特別是考慮到您在 2023 年的利用率相當強勁。

Right. So we're going to receive 14 aircraft next year. A few of those moved from this year, but doesn't make a big difference because moving from December to January doesn't really have an impact in capacity. So you can do the math in terms, we're still not guiding for a capacity growth in 2024, but I think it's not hard to figure it out given the 14 aircraft we're receiving next year. Most are going to be MAX 8, two are going to be MAX 9, and we see demand and we have opportunities for all of those airplanes to fly at our current utilization -- daily utilization numbers.

正確的。所以我們明年將接收 14 架飛機。其中一些是從今年轉移的，但不會產生太大影響，因為從 12 月轉移到 1 月並沒有真正對容量產生影響。所以你可以計算一下，我們仍然沒有指導 2024 年的運力增長，但我認為考慮到我們明年將接收 14 架飛機，這一數字並不難計算出來。大多數將是 MAX 8，兩架將是 MAX 9，我們看到了需求，並且我們有機會讓所有這些飛機按照我們當前的利用率（每日利用率）飛行。

Yes, plus a full year effect of the aircraft that are coming in or still have 5 aircraft left to be delivered this year. So those are planes. Most of it's -- their growth is going to show up actually in 2024 as well. So there's -- I think there's -- I think we're seeing still the environment -- operating environment in a very positive way.

是的，加上今年即將交付的飛機或仍有 5 架飛機待交付的全年影響。所以那些是飛機。其中大部分——他們的增長也將在 2024 年實際顯現出來。因此，我認為我們仍然以非常積極的方式看到運營環境。

Yes. So in terms of capacity, there should be very healthy growth next year.

是的。所以就產能而言，明年應該會有非常健康的增長。

Our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

On the convert buyback, can you just walk us through how your share count and interest expense are going to change following that buyback? And maybe talk about some of the reasoning behind why September makes sense to do that?

關於轉換回購，您能否向我們介紹一下回購後您的股份數量和利息支出將如何變化？也許可以談談為什麼 9 月這樣做有意義的一些原因？

Yes, Duane, I'll start and -- I'll actually start with the second part, which is the reasoning. First of all, since April, we've had the ability to call the convert. And I think that our calculus is that at this time, the economics of the deal worked out for us versus letting it mature.

是的，杜安，我將從第二部分開始，即推理。首先，自四月份以來，我們已經能夠調用轉換者了。我認為我們的計算是，目前該交易的經濟效益對我們有利，而不是讓它成熟。

And then thirdly, I would say the Board when it made its decision, they simply -- I think they wanted to get the pandemic behind us. And I think that also influenced the decision even though, as I mentioned before, from an economic perspective -- financial perspective, it makes sense for us to execute the call at this time, even with the make whole effect, et cetera.

第三，我想說的是，董事會在做出決定時，他們只是——我認為他們希望將這一流行病拋在身後。我認為這也影響了這個決定，儘管正如我之前提到的，從經濟角度——財務角度來看，我們此時執行呼叫是有意義的，即使具有整體效果等。

I would say that the -- in terms of the accounting wise, first of all, we're electing to settle it via the net share method, whereby we'll pay the principal in cash, $350 million in cash and the remainder in shares, that -- ultimately, the valuation of that will depend on a 40-day -- 40-trading observation period that ends in the second week in September. So that will ultimately determine what -- ultimately what the number issued of shares that we would have coming out at that time, the daily settlement. So that's still pending to be determined.

我想說的是——在會計方面，首先，我們選擇通過淨份額法來解決這個問題，我們將以現金支付本金，3.5億美元現金，其餘部分以股票形式支付，最終，其估值將取決於40 天、40 次交易的觀察期，該觀察期於9 月第二週結束。因此，這將最終決定我們當時發行的股票數量，即每日結算。所以這仍有待確定。

And then finally, in terms of how it affects the interest expense. The interest expense will go down by 2 factors. Number one, of course, the coupon goes away 4.5% coupon on the $350 million. But in addition to that, there is a portion, I won't say, maybe it's about a $7 million per quarter figure that was a portion of our interest expense that was noncash. That will basically go away during -- after the settlement. So that's basically the way that it will work out.

最後，就它如何影響利息支出而言。利息支出將下降 2 倍。第一，當然，優惠券取消了 3.5 億美元的 4.5% 優惠券。但除此之外，還有一部分，我不會說，也許每季度大約 700 萬美元，這是我們非現金利息支出的一部分。在和解之後，這種情況基本上會消失。這基本上就是解決問題的方式。

That's really helpful. Is there any relationship between this step and what your dividend policy might look like into next year? Does this make it, I guess, more likely or less likely that you just continue your dividend policy into 2024 based on a look back to 2023 earnings?

這真的很有幫助。這一步與明年的股息政策有什麼關係嗎？我認為，根據對 2023 年盈利的回顧，這是否會讓您更有可能或不太可能將股息政策延續到 2024 年？

No. I think our policy -- dividend policy, as I, just to restate it, is to distribute 40% of the prior year's adjusted net income. And I think that's -- will continue.

不。我認為我們的政策——股息政策，正如我重申的那樣，是分配上一年調整後淨收入的 40%。我認為這種情況將會持續下去。

Yes. So the conversion would make no difference.

是的。所以轉換不會有什麼區別。

Our next question comes from Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的吉爾赫姆·門德斯。

I have two: One, it's on capacity and demand. So if you could split a little bit between leisure VFR and corporate, how you're seeing demand? And I recalled on the last conference call, you mentioned about corporate is still not fully picking up. So how have you seen that during the second quarter? And what are the expectations for the second part of the year. And the second question is -- sorry, Pedro, go ahead, and then I'll ask the second question.

我有兩個：一是根據容量和需求。那麼，如果您可以在休閒 VFR 和企業之間稍微分開一下，您如何看待需求？我記得在上次電話會議上，您提到企業尚未完全復甦。那麼您對第二季度的情況有何看法？對今年下半年的期望是什麼？第二個問題是——抱歉，佩德羅，請繼續，然後我會問第二個問題。

Go ahead. Second question. What is second question?

前進。第二個問題。第二個問題是什麼？

That question is regarding unit management. So you discussed about the unit revenue. I just wanted to better understand how do you think about your ability to increase prices according to fuel prices. So how fast could you do that -- I mean, according to competition and market trends?

這個問題是關於單位管理的。所以你討論了單位收入。我只是想更好地了解您如何看待根據燃油價格提高價格的能力。那麼你能多快做到這一點——我的意思是，根據競爭和市場趨勢？

Yes. Okay. So first question, business traffic, corporate traffic has improved somewhat in the last number of months. So the trend is positive. But the numbers are still not much different to what we have shared in the recent past. We're about 40% is leisure and 30% is VFR, the rest is a combination -- it's business, but it's business and corporate. So some of the business we move in the region is not necessarily tied to corporate accounts.

是的。好的。第一個問題，商業流量、企業流量在過去幾個月有所改善。所以趨勢是積極的。但這些數字與我們最近分享的數字仍然沒有太大不同。我們大約 40% 是休閒，30% 是 VFR，其餘的是組合——這是商務，但它是商務和企業。因此，我們在該地區開展的一些業務不一定與公司賬戶相關。

So that has -- I mean, it has improved somewhat, but not in a significant way. The breakdown is similar to what I just mentioned, which hasn't changed much. However, leisure is behaving in a way that -- well, you can see our results. So demand is strong and yields are healthy. So we're fine with the way we -- traffic has developed.

所以，我的意思是，它有所改善，但不是顯著的改善。細分和我剛才提到的類似，沒有太大變化。然而，休閒的表現方式是——嗯，你可以看到我們的結果。因此，需求強勁，產量也健康。因此，我們對交通發展的方式感到滿意。

In terms of revenue management and pricing, so what we showed -- and I'll let Jose back me up, but what we showed in 2022 was that we were able to cover the increase in jet fuel prices, but it didn't happen right away, it did not happen in the second quarter when jet fuel spiked up. It did happen in the second half of the year. And this year, we'll see.

在收入管理和定價方面，我們所展示的——我會讓 Jose 支持我，但我們在 2022 年所展示的是，我們能夠彌補航空燃油價格的上漲，但這並沒有發生但在第二季度航空燃油飆升時，這種情況並沒有發生。事情確實發生在下半年。今年，我們拭目以待。

Yes. It's about a 2- to 3-month delay. Now of course, our revenue management folks always are pricing to maximum the market could bear. But usually, it takes -- there's a little bit of a lag between fuel spikes and when RM catches up.

是的。大約有2到3個月的延遲。當然，現在我們的收入管理人員總是將定價定為市場可以承受的最高水平。但通常情況下，燃料峰值和 RM 趕上之間存在一點滯後。

Our next question comes from Stephen Trent from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的斯蒂芬·特倫特。

Just 2 quick ones for me. The first, definitely appreciate the ex-fuel CASM guidance out to 2025 and what you're saying for this year. Any high-level view to what extent Wingo could be -- maybe a higher weighting of the operations relative to 2022?

對我來說只有 2 個快速的。首先，非常感謝 CASM 到 2025 年的無燃料指南以及您今年所說的內容。高層對 Wingo 的發展程度有什麼看法——也許相對於 2022 年，業務的權重會更高？

It's -- we don't see that in the short term, maybe medium term, not sure. Wingo is still a small part of our capacity and revenues. As you know, Colombia has been a challenging market for all airlines operating in that country. So I think -- I don't think we're going to see a lot of growth from the Wingo segment.

我們在短期內看不到這一點，也許在中期看，不確定。 Wingo 仍然只占我們產能和收入的一小部分。如您所知，對於在該國運營的所有航空公司來說，哥倫比亞一直是一個充滿挑戰的市場。所以我認為——我認為我們不會看到 Wingo 領域有很大的增長。

Well, we have flexibility, too. I think part of our plan internally is to have a lot of flexibility in terms of how we put out capacity in the 2 brands. But yes, I think in general terms, more of the growth is going to come from the airlines side.

嗯，我們也有靈活性。我認為我們內部計劃的一部分是在如何投放這兩個品牌的產能方面擁有很大的靈活性。但是，是的，我認為總的來說，更多的增長將來自航空公司方面。

I appreciate that, guys. And just 1 very quick second question, just a follow-up to Savi's question. When we think about the RASM and consider the amount of upgauge you're doing. Was there any stage length adjusted noise and the pivot for 2023 RASM just out of curiosity?

我很感激，伙計們。還有一個非常簡短的第二個問題，只是薩維問題的後續問題。當我們考慮 RASM 並考慮您正在進行的升級量時。出於好奇，是否有調整舞台長度的噪音和 2023 RASM 的樞軸？

I would say that there is not that much. I mean there was -- I mean, there's -- I would say a little bit, actually, I would say it's a tab, but it's not significant, I would say, Stephen.

我想說的是，沒有那麼多。我的意思是，有——我的意思是，有——我會說一點，實際上，我會說這是一個選項卡，但我想說，它並不重要，斯蒂芬。

Okay. Sorry.

好的。對不起。

And what I would add just to the RASM questions that we received that 2022 is a tough comp because it spiked up. I mean, RASM, it was -- the trend was not 100% typical what we saw last year. And after the pandemic, not all demand patterns have been exactly the same as they were before. It's getting back to something more similar to what we're used to. But last year in a way, was a transitional year in capacity and demanding the whole thing. So the comps are a little bit more difficult in that sense. But I think what's important is that our bookings are still quite strong.

我想在我們收到的 RASM 問題中補充一點，2022 年是一場艱難的比賽，因為它的數量激增。我的意思是，RASM，這種趨勢並不是我們去年看到的 100% 典型。疫情過後，並非所有需求模式都與之前完全相同。它又回到了與我們習慣的更相似的狀態。但從某種程度上來說，去年是能力和要求全面轉變的一年。所以從這個意義上說，比賽有點困難。但我認為重要的是我們的預訂量仍然相當強勁。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Rogério Araújo from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rogério Araújo。

A couple here: One is just a clarification. So did you say that the whole fuel that is spiked in the past couple of weeks. It's not fully included in the guidance. So how far would you be from the current oil price curve? And also on that matter, what does your guidance implies if you consider the current oil price curve, would you still be in the range of '22 to '24, that's the first one.

這裡有一對夫婦：其中一個只是一個澄清。你是不是說過去幾週燃料價格飆升？它沒有完全包含在指南中。那麼您距離當前的油價曲線還有多遠？同樣在這個問題上，如果您考慮當前的油價曲線，您的指導意味著什麼，您是否仍處於“22”至“24”的範圍內，這是第一個。

Thank you for allowing me to clarify it. The fuel guidance that we have is essentially the curve today. What I tried to say is that the RASM given that the fuel has increased so quickly, the RASM itself has not been able -- we have not been able to adjust the RASM from an RM perspective, over the last couple of weeks. But the fuel as it is in that $2.95 is as we're seeing the full year all-in price for us for the entire 2023 with the latest curve than where we had from earlier in the week.

感謝您允許我澄清這一點。我們的燃油指導基本上就是今天的曲線。我想說的是，考慮到燃油增長如此之快，RASM 本身無法做到——過去幾週我們無法從 RM 角度調整 RASM。但 2.95 美元的燃料是因為我們看到了整個 2023 年的全年總價格，最新的曲線比本週早些時候的曲線要好。

Sounds great. Very clear. And my second question, if you could give us some information on which regions are the -- you see the strongest bookings, which are the weakest at this moment, maybe always strong, as you say, but can you kind of differ a little bit, which ones you are more excited about and which are not?

聽起來很棒。非常清楚。我的第二個問題，如果你能給我們一些關於哪些地區的信息- 你看到最強的預訂，哪些是目前最弱的，也許總是很強，正如你所說，但你能有點不同嗎，哪些是您更興奮的，哪些不是？

No. Like you showed, there's always a region that might be weaker, and they take turns. It's not always the same. But across the board, it's very similar right now.

不。就像你所展示的那樣，總有一個區域可能較弱，而且它們會輪流進行。它並不總是一樣的。但總的來說，現在的情況非常相似。

Our next question comes from Michael Lindberg from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的邁克爾·林德伯格。

It's Mike from Deutsche Bank.

我是德意志銀行的邁克。

Michael Linenberg from Deutsche Bank, of course.

當然是德意志銀行的邁克爾·林伯格（Michael Linenberg）。

Not a problem. That was news to me, too. I'm like, wow, I mean, everyone around here looks like DB, but I guess 2 here, I think.

不是問題。這對我來說也是新聞。我想，哇，我的意思是，這裡的每個人看起來都像 DB，但我想這裡有 2 個。

You should have known, right?

你應該知道，對吧？

I'm always the last to find out about these things. So. Anyway, on your commentary Page just about around unit revenue, you talked about an increase in competitive capacity something along the lines of double-digit range. Are you -- maybe more specifically, is that capacity in and out of Panama City or is that what you're seeing in some of the markets where you participate in the connecting flows?

我總是最後一個發現這些事情的。所以。不管怎樣，在你的評論頁面上，關於單位收入，你談到了競爭能力的提高，大約是兩位數的範圍。也許更具體地說，是進出巴拿馬城的運力，還是您在參與轉接流程的一些市場中看到的運力？

Right. So yes, so first, what I'll say is that what has happened is that, I would say, the rest -- our peers in Latin America have caught up to their pre-pandemic capacity. It took them a little bit longer for different reasons, but everybody is caught up now. And no, this is not Panama capacity. There's really no significant change or no change at all, maybe to only Panama capacity. But as we know -- as you know, we play in the connecting field. And so this has to be just with other hubs and also direct non-hub capacity in the region.

正確的。所以，是的，首先，我要說的是，我想說的是，我們拉丁美洲的其他國家已經趕上了大流行前的能力。由於不同的原因，他們花了更長的時間，但現在每個人都趕上了。不，這不是巴拿馬的容量。實際上沒有重大變化或根本沒有變化，也許只有巴拿馬的容量。但正如我們所知，正如你們所知，我們在連接領域發揮作用。因此，這必須僅涉及該地區的其他樞紐以及直接非樞紐的運力。

Okay. And then just to kind of update us, when you look at your split today, local versus connect, are you sort of 40-60, 45-55, I always knew that it was pretty not evenly split, but where are you from a local versus connect basis today?

好的。然後只是為了更新我們的情況，當你今天看看你的分配情況時，本地與連接，你是 40-60、45-55，我一直都知道分配得相當不均勻，但你來自哪裡？今天本地與連接基礎？

Yes. We're more in the 70-30 range.

是的。我們更多的是在 70-30 範圍內。

70 connecting, 30 local. Yes.

70 個連接，30 個本地。是的。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then just my last question, after the convert gets taken out, your liquidity will come down. And the question is, what -- like when you think about target liquidity, how should we think about it maybe as a percent of LTM revenue, maybe how that factors into your leverage ratio of 0.5. What metrics should we sort of think about in the longer term, both from a liquidity perspective, what's the appropriate amount post pandemic and where we should target from a leverage perspective?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後我的最後一個問題是，在轉換者被取出後，你的流動性將會下降。問題是，就像當你考慮目標流動性時，我們應該如何考慮它佔 LTM 收入的百分比，也許它如何影響你的 0.5 槓桿率。從長遠來看，我們應該考慮哪些指標，無論是從流動性角度來看，大流行後的適當金額是多少，還是從槓桿角度來看我們應該瞄準哪裡？

Yes, Mike, I think first of all, I think the leverage will essentially be the same after the settlement. The -- and so I think we're comfortable in the sort of very strong position that we have. Mind you we have a set of investments coming along, a lot of aircraft coming and there's demand capital. And so we are -- we have some commitments coming forward and that will be used for growth, basically, right? And then we have the -- our dividend policy, which is still very active. But in terms of total liquidity we could end up in the year in around $1 billion. So that's, I think, something we're comfortable with that level for the size of the business and given all the commitments that we have going forward in terms of aircraft coming our way.

是的，邁克，我認為首先，我認為和解后杠桿率基本上是一樣的。所以我認為我們對我們所擁有的非常有利的地位感到滿意。請注意，我們正在進行一系列投資，大量飛機即將到來，並且存在資金需求。所以我們——我們有一些未來的承諾，基本上將用於增長，對吧？然後我們的股息政策仍然非常活躍。但就流動性總額而言，我們今年最終可能會達到 10 億美元左右。因此，我認為，考慮到我們在飛機方面所做出的所有承諾，就業務規模而言，我們對這一水平感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Pablo Monsivais from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的巴勃羅·蒙西瓦斯。

Okay. Just a question on the comment that you just said about leisure passengers being very strong. To what extent do you attribute this strength to local currencies appreciating over the first half. And can we just extrapolate that strong local currencies to strong leisure. Are there another fundamental changes in the patterns of demand?

好的。就你剛才提到的休閒旅客非常強大的評論提出一個問題。您在多大程度上將這種強勢歸因於上半年當地貨幣的升值？我們是否可以將強勢的當地貨幣推斷為強勁的休閒活動。需求模式是否還有其他根本性變化？

Yes, Pablo. I would say -- I will start by saying that there's -- it's been an interesting mix in terms of our leisure travel dynamic. First of all, there was a lot of U.S. origin -- historically, of course, we've been more anything bringing people from South America to the Caribbean and to North America. That sort of reversed a little bit after the pandemic with the strength of the U.S. dollar and now you're seeing more Americans coming south. That, but with the recent sort of strength of the real and the Colombian peso, then you're seeing some of that flow reversing a little bit again. So there's -- now we're kind of in a flux sort of moment where there's a little bit of everything into the mix of our leisure travelers, which is, I think, very, very good in terms of the sources that we have for demand.

是的，巴勃羅。我想說——我首先要說的是——就我們的休閒旅游動態而言，這是一個有趣的組合。首先，有很多人來自美國——當然，從歷史上看，我們更多的是把人們從南美洲帶到加勒比海和北美。疫情過後，隨著美元走強，這種情況發生了一些逆轉，現在你看到更多的美國人南下。但隨著最近雷亞爾和哥倫比亞比索的走強，你會看到部分資金流再次出現逆轉。所以，現在我們正處於一個不斷變化的時刻，我們的休閒旅行者混合了各種各樣的東西，我認為，就我們所擁有的資源而言，這非常非常好要求。

Our next question comes from Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

So 1 question I have is in terms of connecting traffic and kind of a combination of traffic and freight. With the Mexican government forcing airlines to move from one airport to another airport with cargo. I'm wondering if that creates an opportunity for some of the other airlines that connect freight to shift their capacity from Mexico City to Panama City, where you would potentially be a beneficiary of that?

我有一個問題是關於連接交通以及交通和貨運的組合。墨西哥政府強迫航空公司將貨物從一個機場轉移到另一個機場。我想知道這是否為其他一些連接貨運的航空公司創造了機會，將其運力從墨西哥城轉移到巴拿馬城，您可能會成為其中的受益者？

Yes. We have not seen any signs of movement in that direction, and it's not something that we've given a lot of thought to. Our freight capacity is also limited. Limited to the belly of our cargo -- of our passenger aircraft, which is limited and our single 737 freighter. So we don't think we would see any benefit from that if it was to happen.

是的。我們還沒有看到任何朝這個方向發展的跡象，我們也沒有對此進行太多思考。我們的貨運能力也有限。僅限於我們的客機腹艙（數量有限）和我們的單架 737 貨機。因此，我們認為如果這種情況發生的話，我們不會從中得到任何好處。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then I just have one clarification, Jose, on the fleet plan. I think you said you were going to end this year with 107 aircraft?

好的。這非常有幫助。何塞，我對艦隊計劃只有一個澄清。我想您說過今年年底您將擁有 107 架飛機？

Yes.

是的。

Right. Okay. And then next year, based on the delivery schedule of 14, that means, what, 121 aircraft for next year?

正確的。好的。那麼明年，按照14架的交付計劃，也就是說，明年有121架飛機？

Yes. Helane, we still have a set of aircraft that are under lease that are -- some of them could be extended. So our plan right now is that there will be a lease airplane that will be returning. So our expectation as of today is that we could end the year 2024 with 120 airplanes in total. So it will be 14 deliveries, minus 1 lease return.

是的。 Helane，我們仍然有一組正在租賃的飛機，其中一些可以延長。所以我們現在的計劃是會有一架租賃飛機返回。因此，我們截至目前的預期是，到 2024 年年底，我們的飛機總數將達到 120 架。因此，這將是 14 次交付，減去 1 次租賃回報。

Got it. And -- but could there be any other lease returns?

知道了。而且——但是還有其他租賃回報嗎？

No. At this time, I think it's -- it could be just this one.

不。目前，我認為——可能就是這個。

And we could renew it also.

我們也可以更新它。

Yes. Yes. As I'm saying, our view as of today is that, but it could we're still relatively flexible in that.

是的。是的。正如我所說，我們今天的觀點是這樣的，但我們在這方面可能仍然相對靈活。

Our next question comes from Daniel McKenzie from Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Daniel McKenzie。

A couple of questions on 2024. Following up on Wingo, I know you're not planning to grow it much, but how many aircraft are you planning for the entity next year? It looks like it's about 16% of the seats today. And my thought is that Wingo as a percent of the overall system could trend down as you grow the mainline?

關於 2024 年的幾個問題。關於 Wingo，我知道您不打算讓它增長太多，但明年您計劃為該實體購買多少架飛機？今天看起來大約有16%的席位。我的想法是，隨著主線的發展，Wingo 在整個系統中所佔的百分比可能會下降？

Well, they're operating 9 aircraft right now, at the end of the year, it will be 9 out of 107. And it's not that, that number could not grow next year. It could. We have flexibility as Jose mentioned. But they could also stay at 9. It really depends on how the Colombian market develops and what are the opportunities there. But most of the growth will continue being from Copa Airlines. So yes, their share of the total will come down under that premise, which is what will most likely happen.

嗯，他們現在運營著 9 架飛機，到今年年底，這將是 107 架中的 9 架。但事實並非如此，明年這個數字不會增長。它可以。正如何塞提到的，我們有靈活性。但他們也可能會保持在第9位。這實際上取決於哥倫比亞市場的發展情況以及那裡有哪些機會。但大部分增長將繼續來自巴拿馬航空公司。所以，是的，在這個前提下，他們佔總數的份額將會下降，這也是最有可能發生的情況。

Second question here for those of us that don't know all of the smaller markets in Latin America, I'm wondering if you just elaborate a little bit on the growth next year. So just some high-level thoughts on mix, growth in existing markets versus new markets, long haul versus short haul. Whatever you can share would be great.

對於我們這些不了解拉丁美洲所有較小市場的人來說，第二個問題是，我想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下明年的增長情況。因此，我們只是對組合、現有市場與新市場的增長、長途與短程的一些高層思考。無論你能分享什麼，那就太好了。

Yes. So it's going to be a combination. Well, it's going to be mostly new frequencies, additional frequencies to currently serve markets and we should also keep in mind that in the last 2 years, we've started like 8 or 9 new routes in the region, and some of those will get more capacity. Again, plus the markets we've been operating from before. So a lot is going to be -- most of it is going to be new frequencies plus the full year effect of what we started this year will also impact capacity growth next year. And we still believe we'll probably open a few 2 -- between 2 and 4 new destinations and there are still a lot of opportunities in the whole continent in the Americas, and we're always evaluating new markets.

是的。所以這將是一個組合。好吧，這將主要是新的頻率，目前服務市場的額外頻率，我們還應該記住，在過去的兩年裡，我們已經在該地區啟動了 8 或 9 條新航線，其中一些將獲得更多容量。再說一遍，加上我們之前一直運營的市場。因此，將會發生很多事情——其中大部分將是新的頻率，加上我們今年開始的全年影響也將影響明年的運力增長。我們仍然相信，我們可能會開設一些 2 - 2 到 4 個新目的地，整個美洲大陸仍然有很多機會，我們一直在評估新市場。

We also have 9 cities from pre-pandemic where we have not restarted service. So we also have that. So we will be restarting service to some of the cities that we still haven't gone back to from pre-pandemic. So we have that. We have new destinations and mostly additional frequencies to currently serve markets. So lots of opportunities as we see it.

我們還有9個疫情前的城市尚未恢復服務。所以我們也有這個。因此，我們將重新啟動對一些尚未從疫情爆發前返回的城市的服務。所以我們就有了。我們有新的目的地，並且主要是增加目前服務市場的頻率。我們看到了很多機會。

And our final question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

I just wanted to ask you about kind of this relationship between fuel prices and fares and what you see competitively. I mean the timing may have been a little bit off here. But as I remember back in the day, you had a tremendous ability to offset higher fuel and there was a fair bit of fuel surcharge in the mechanism for your competitive fares. Could you just touch on -- remind us the fuel surcharge mechanism and if the same is true today relative to the past?

我只是想問您燃油價格和票價之間的關係以及您所看到的競爭情況。我的意思是，時機可能有點不對勁。但正如我記得的那樣，當時，您有巨大的能力來抵消更高的燃油費用，並且在您的競爭性票價機制中存在相當多的燃油附加費。您能談談燃油附加費機制嗎？與過去相比，今天是否也是如此？

Yes. So we no longer do fuel surcharges as such. And we are not in a fuel environment or a fuel price environment like we were back in 2007, if I can recall when fuel surcharges were necessary. But we have priced the fuel increases in the past successfully. That goes in the fair, not in a fuel surcharge. That's what happened in 2022 during -- especially during the second half of '22. And we'll see where fuel goes right now and then we'll try to price it in as much as we can. It depends on competitors also and what they do, of course, we're always very competitive.

是的。所以我們不再收取燃油附加費。如果我還記得什麼時候需要徵收燃油附加費的話，我們現在的燃油環境或燃油價格環境已經不像 2007 年那樣了。但我們過去已經成功地對燃油上漲進行了定價。這是在展會上進行的，而不是燃油附加費。這就是 2022 年發生的事情——尤其是 22 年下半年。我們將了解燃料現在的去向，然後我們將盡力對其進行定價。這也取決於競爭對手以及他們所做的事情，當然，我們總是非常有競爭力。

There's more capacity than there was in 2022. As I mentioned before, capacity is pretty much back to pre-pandemic levels for all airlines. So that might play into all of this. So that's why in the guidance in the detail of the guidance Jose shared, we're not getting ahead of ourselves. And it's kind of how we see it right now, but we always try to do better, of course.

運力比 2022 年要多。正如我之前提到的，所有航空公司的運力幾乎回到了大流行前的水平。所以這可能會影響所有這一切。因此，這就是為什麼在何塞分享的指導細節中，我們沒有超越自己。這就是我們現在的看法，但當然，我們總是努力做得更好。

I'd like to turn the conference back to Pedro Heilbron for closing remarks.

我想請佩德羅·海爾布隆 (Pedro Heilbron) 致閉幕詞。

Okay. Thank you. So thank you all. This concludes our second quarter earnings call. Thanks for participating. And as always, thanks for your continued support. Have a great day, and we'll see you in the next one. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。謝謝大家。我們的第二季度財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。一如既往，感謝您的持續支持。祝您度過美好的一天，我們下一天再見。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。演示到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。