Copa Holdings SA (CPA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Copa Holdings Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being webcast and recorded on February 16, 2023.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎來到 Copa Holdings 第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，此電話將於 2023 年 2 月 16 日進行網絡廣播和錄製。

Now I will turn the conference over to Daniel Tapia, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我將把會議轉交給投資者關係總監丹尼爾塔皮亞。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Latif, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings and Jose Montero, our CFO. First, Pedro will start by going over our fourth quarter and full year highlights, followed by Jose, who will discuss our financial results. Immediately after, we will open the call for questions from analysts.

謝謝 Latif，歡迎大家參加我們的第四季度財報電話會議。今天加入我們的有 Copa Holdings 首席執行官 Pedro Heilbron 和我們的首席財務官 Jose Montero。首先，Pedro 將首先介紹我們第四季度和全年的亮點，然後 Jose 將討論我們的財務業績。緊接著，我們將打開分析師提問的電話。

Copa Holdings financial reports have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards. In today's call, we will discuss non-IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of the non-IFRS to IFRS financial measures can be found in our earnings release, which has been posted on the company's website, copaair.com. Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and/or intentions regarding future events and results. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC.

Copa Holdings 財務報告是根據國際財務報告準則編制的。在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論非 IFRS 財務指標。非 IFRS 與 IFRS 財務措施的調節可以在我們的收益發布中找到，該發布已發佈在公司網站 copaair.com 上。我們今天的討論還將包含前瞻性陳述，不限於反映公司當前對未來事件和結果的信念、期望和/或意圖的歷史事實。這些前瞻性陳述涉及可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的風險和不確定性，並且基於可能發生變化的假設。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度報告中討論了其中的許多內容。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heilbron.

現在我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Pedro Heilbron 先生。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning to all, and thanks for participating in our fourth quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to all our coworkers for their commitment to the company. Their continuous efforts and dedication have kept Copa at the forefront of Latin American aviation. To them, as always, my highest regards and admiration. We're proud to report solid fourth quarter and full year results despite the pressure higher jet fuel prices have added to our operating costs and other headwinds common to our business. Among the main highlights for the quarter, in terms of capacity, although we had a similar number of daily departures compared to 2019, we achieved 6% more ASMs than in Q4 2019 due to a higher average [PH].

謝謝你，丹尼爾。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的第四季度財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我要對所有同事對公司的承諾表示衷心的感謝。他們的不懈努力和奉獻精神使 Copa 始終走在拉丁美洲航空的前列。對他們，一如既往，我致以最崇高的敬意和欽佩。儘管噴氣燃料價格上漲增加了我們的運營成本和我們業務常見的其他不利因素，但我們很自豪地報告穩健的第四季度和全年業績。在本季度的主要亮點中，就運力而言，儘管我們的每日出發次數與 2019 年相似，但由於更高的平均 [PH]，我們實現的 ASM 比 2019 年第四季度多 6%。

Revenue passenger miles increased by 7.5%, which led to an 86.6% load factor, a 1.4 percentage point increase when compared to the same period in 2019. Passenger yields came in at $0.151 or 20% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2019. While cargo revenue, including the contribution from the operation of our Boeing 737-800 freighter was 69% higher, resulting in unit revenues, or RASM, of $0.137, a 23% increase compared to the first quarter of 2019. Adjusted ex-fuel CASM decreased by 7% compared to Q4 2019 from $0.066 to $0.061. And our operating margin came in at 24.7%.

收入乘客里程增加了 7.5%，導致載客率為 86.6%，與 2019 年同期相比增加了 1.4 個百分點。乘客收益率為 0.151 美元，比 2019 年第四季度高出 20%。雖然貨運收入，包括我們的波音 737-800 貨機運營的貢獻，增加了 69%，導致單位收入或 RASM 為 0.137 美元，與 2019 年第一季度相比增加了 23%。調整後的前燃料 CASM 減少與 2019 年第四季度相比增長 7%，從 0.066 美元增至 0.061 美元。我們的營業利潤率為 24.7%。

Now turning to our main highlights for the full year 2022. Unit revenues increased 12.6% year-over-year to $0.121 mainly driven by a 10.8% increase in yields. CASM ex-fuel came in at $0.598, almost 5% lower than 2019. And the operating margin for the year came in at 15.2%. During the year, we started the flight to Barcelona, Venezuela, Santa Marta, Colombia and to the Felipe Angeles Airport in Mexico City, ending the year operating to 77 destinations in 32 countries in North, Central, South America and the Caribbean, strengthening our position as the most complete and convenient hub in Latin America.

現在轉向我們 2022 年全年的主要亮點。單位收入同比增長 12.6% 至 0.121 美元，主要受收益率增長 10.8% 的推動。 CASM 前燃料價格為 0.598 美元，比 2019 年低近 5%。全年營業利潤率為 15.2%。年內，我們開通了飛往委內瑞拉巴塞羅那、哥倫比亞聖瑪爾塔和墨西哥城費利佩安吉利斯機場的航班，年末開通北美洲、中美洲、南美洲和加勒比地區 32 個國家的 77 個目的地，加強了我們的業務定位為拉丁美洲最完整和最方便的樞紐。

We inaugurated our new Copa Club in Tocumen's new terminal 2. This new and modern facility provides our business class and preferred members with a world-class experience while [traveling] through our Panama hub of the Americas. We also reactivated our Panama stopover program, which promotes our home country as the tourist destination, and we're seeing good results.

我們在 Tocumen 的新 2 號航站樓開設了我們的新 Copa 俱樂部。這個新的現代化設施為我們的商務艙和首選會員提供了世界一流的體驗，同時 [旅行] 通過我們在美洲的巴拿馬樞紐。我們還重新啟動了我們的巴拿馬中途停留計劃，該計劃將我們的祖國宣傳為旅遊目的地，我們看到了良好的效果。

In September, we launched our new distribution strategy, including the new Copa Connect option for travel agency to access [Copa first] and other content via the IATA new distribution capability or NDC. At the same time, Copa introduced a cost recovery surcharge for bookings made through the legacy GDS technology, known as EDIFACT.

9 月，我們推出了新的分銷策略，包括旅行社通過 IATA 新分銷能力或 NDC 訪問 [Copa first] 和其他內容的新 Copa Connect 選項。與此同時，Copa 對通過傳統 GDS 技術（稱為 EDIFACT）進行的預訂徵收成本回收附加費。

During Q4, we were pleased with both the adoption of Copa Connect among our agency partners and the increase in direct sales via copa.com. We're still at an early stage, but these changes are helping us gain more control over our distribution strategy and offset and eventually lower our distribution costs.

在第四季度，我們對我們的代理合作夥伴採用 Copa Connect 以及通過 copa.com 增加直接銷售感到滿意。我們仍處於早期階段，但這些變化正在幫助我們更好地控制我們的分銷策略並抵消並最終降低我們的分銷成本。

On the operational front, Copa delivered an on-time performance of 87.4% and was recently recognized by the official airline guide as the most on-time airline in Latin America in 2022. In fact, according to OAG, Copa's on-time performance was again the highest of any carrier in the Americas.

在運營方面，Copa 的準點率達到 87.4%，最近被官方航空公司指南評為 2022 年拉丁美洲最準時的航空公司。事實上，根據 OAG，Copa 的準點率是再次成為美洲所有航空公司中最高的。

Additionally, last year, Copa Holdings was recognized by Skytrax for the seventh consecutive year as the best airline and the best airline staff in Central America and the Caribbean. I would like to once again express my recognition to our more than 7,000 coworkers who day in and day out deliver a world-class travel experience for our customers. Their contributions are key to our success.

此外，去年，Copa Holdings 連續第七年被 Skytrax 評為中美洲和加勒比地區最佳航空公司和最佳航空公司員工。我想再次向我們 7,000 多名日復一日為我們的客戶提供世界一流旅行體驗的同事表示感謝。他們的貢獻是我們成功的關鍵。

With regards to Wingo. Wingo received 1 additional 737-800 from Copa (inaudible) and ended the year with a total of 9 aircraft. Additionally, we continue this regional expansion and ended 2022 operating 31 routes with service to 20 cities in 10 countries.

關於溫戈。 Wingo 從 Copa（聽不清）那裡獲得了 1 架額外的 737-800 飛機，並在年底以總共 9 架飛機結束。此外，我們繼續進行區域擴張，並在 2022 年底運營了 31 條航線，為 10 個國家/地區的 20 個城市提供服務。

Turning now to our expectations for 2023. During our last call in November, we shared preliminary capacity guidance for the year of plus 15% as compared to 2022. We mentioned that we were expecting to receive 13 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft during the year. (inaudible) in our earnings release, we are reducing our capacity growth guidance to a range of 12% to 14% as it now looks like Boeing won't be able to maintain [severely] scheduled delivery dates. We now expect to receive 12 aircraft during the year instead of 13.

現在談談我們對 2023 年的預期。在 11 月的最後一次電話會議上，我們分享了與 2022 年相比增長 15% 的初步產能指導。我們提到我們預計年內將接收 13 架波音 737 MAX 飛機。 （聽不清）在我們的收益發布中，我們正在將產能增長指導下調至 12% 至 14% 的範圍，因為現在看來波音將無法維持 [嚴重] 預定的交付日期。我們現在預計年內將接收 12 架飛機，而不是 13 架。

Additionally, as is the case for the industry worldwide, we're experiencing higher maintenance cost related to our engines and [maintenance shop] and turnaround time. We expect that this issue will add pressure on our unit cost for the year. Jose will provide more details around this.

此外，與全球行業的情況一樣，我們正在經歷與我們的引擎和[維修車間]和周轉時間相關的更高維護成本。我們預計這個問題將增加我們今年的單位成本壓力。 Jose 將提供有關此的更多詳細信息。

This year, we expect to continue growing our (inaudible) in terms of frequencies and new destinations. So far, we have announced new service to the cities of Manta in Ecuador and Baltimore and Austin in U.S. as part of (inaudible). With these additions, we will be serving 80 destinations in North, Central, South America and the Caribbean by July of this year.

今年，我們希望在頻率和新目的地方面繼續增加我們的（聽不清）。到目前為止，作為（聽不清）的一部分，我們已經宣布向厄瓜多爾的曼塔市和美國的巴爾的摩市和奧斯汀市提供新服務。加上這些新成員，到今年 7 月，我們將為北美洲、中美洲、南美洲和加勒比地區的 80 個目的地提供服務。

To summarize, we delivered strong results in Q4 and for the full year 2022. Our team continues to deliver world-leading operational results, including, again, the best on-time performance in the Americas. We're reducing our capacity assumptions for the year given the current delays in the aircraft delivery stream. And as always, we will continue looking for efficiencies and savings to further reduce our unit costs and strengthen our competitiveness going forward.

總而言之，我們在第四季度和 2022 年全年取得了強勁的業績。我們的團隊繼續提供世界領先的運營業績，再次包括美洲最佳準點率。鑑於目前飛機交付流的延遲，我們正在降低今年的運力假設。一如既往，我們將繼續尋求效率和節約，以進一步降低我們的單位成本並增強我們未來的競爭力。

Lastly, we're confident as ever in our business model. In 2022, we delivered competitive unit cost and solid margins while continuing to offer a great product to our passengers, making us the best positioned airline in our region to consistently deliver industry-leading results.

最後，我們對我們的商業模式一如既往地充滿信心。 2022 年，我們在繼續為乘客提供優質產品的同時，實現了具有競爭力的單位成本和可觀的利潤率，使我們成為本地區處於最佳地位的航空公司，能夠始終如一地提供行業領先的業績。

Now I'll turn it over to Jose, who will go over our financial results in more detail.

現在我將把它交給何塞，他將更詳細地檢查我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Pedro. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for being with us today. I'd like to join Pedro in acknowledging our great team for all their efforts to deliver a world-class service to our passengers. I will start by going over the main highlights for full year 2022. Our load factor came in basically flat versus 2019 at 85.1%, driven by a 10.8% increase in yields, unit revenues improved by 12.6% versus 2019 to $0.121. Our unit cost came in at $0.0598, 4.6% lower than in 2019.

謝謝你，佩德羅。大家，早安。感謝您今天與我們在一起。我想和佩德羅一起感謝我們偉大的團隊為我們的乘客提供世界一流服務所做的一切努力。我將首先回顧 2022 年全年的主要亮點。我們的載客率與 2019 年基本持平，為 85.1%，受收益率增長 10.8% 的推動，單位收入與 2019 年相比增長 12.6% 至 0.121 美元。我們的單位成本為 0.0598 美元，比 2019 年低 4.6%。

Due to an increase of 67% in jet fuel prices, our operating margin was 0.9 percentage points lower than in 2019 at 15.2%. Reported net income for full year 2022 came in at $348.1 million, which translates to earnings per share of $8.58. Excluding special items, mainly in unrealized mark-to-market net gain of $12.7 million related to the company's convertible notes as well as changes in the value of financial investments. Adjusted net income came in at $335.4 million or adjusted earnings per share of $8.26.

由於航空燃油價格上漲 67%，我們的營業利潤率比 2019 年的 15.2% 低 0.9 個百分點。報告的 2022 年全年淨收入為 3.481 億美元，相當於每股收益 8.58 美元。不包括特殊項目，主要是與公司可轉換票據相關的未實現市值淨收益 1270 萬美元以及金融投資價值的變化。調整後淨收入為 3.354 億美元或調整後每股收益 8.26 美元。

Now turning to our fourth quarter results. Net profits for the quarter came in at $88.3 million or $2.23 per share. Excluding special items, net profits came in at $177.7 million or $4.49 per share. Fourth quarter special items are comprised of an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $91.3 million related to the company's convertible notes and a $1.9 million unrealized mark-to-market gain related to changes in the value of financial investments. We reported a quarterly operating profit of $219.7 million and an operating margin of 24.7%. Capacity came in at 6.5 billion available seat miles or approximately 6% higher than in Q4 2019.

現在轉向我們的第四季度業績。本季度淨利潤為 8830 萬美元或每股 2.23 美元。不包括特殊項目，淨利潤為 1.777 億美元或每股 4.49 美元。第四季度特殊項目包括與公司可轉換票據相關的 9130 萬美元未實現市值損失和與金融投資價值變化相關的 190 萬美元未實現市值收益。我們公佈的季度營業利潤為 2.197 億美元，營業利潤率為 24.7%。運力達到 65 億可用座位英里，比 2019 年第四季度增加約 6%。

Load factor came in at 86.6% for the quarter, a 1.4 percentage point increase compared to the same period in 2019, while passenger yields increased 20.4% to $0.151.

本季度載客率為 86.6%，比 2019 年同期增長 1.4 個百分點，而客運收益率增長 20.4% 至 0.151 美元。

As a result, unit revenues came in at $0.137 or 23.4% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2019. Driven by higher jet fuel prices, unit cost or CASM increased $0.103 or 10% more than the adjusted CASM in Q4 2019. And finally, our CASM excluding fuel came in at $0.061, a 7% decrease versus the adjusted CASM excluding fuel for Q4 2019.

因此，單位收入比 2019 年第四季度增加 0.137 美元或 23.4%。在噴氣燃料價格上漲的推動下，單位成本或 CASM 比 2019 年第四季度調整後的 CASM 增加 0.103 美元或 10%。最後，我們不包括燃料的 CASM 為 0.061 美元，與 2019 年第四季度調整後的不包括燃料的 CASM 相比下降了 7%。

I'm going to spend some time now discussing our balance sheet and liquidity. As of the end of the year, we had assets of close to $4.7 billion. And in terms of cash, short- and long-term investments, we ended the year with $1.1 billion, which represents 38% of last 12 months revenues. As to our debt, we ended the year with $1.7 billion in debt and lease liabilities and achieved an adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.8x.

我現在要花一些時間討論我們的資產負債表和流動性。截至年底，我們的資產接近 47 億美元。在現金、短期和長期投資方面，我們在年底以 11 億美元結束了這一年，佔過去 12 個月收入的 38%。至於我們的債務，我們在年底的債務和租賃負債為 17 億美元，調整後的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 0.8 倍。

Turning now to our fleet. During the fourth quarter, we received 2 Boeing 737 MAX 9s to end the year with a total of 97 aircraft compared to 102 aircraft in our fleet at year-end 2019. In January of 2023, we received an additional 737 MAX 9 to bring our total fleet to 98 aircraft. With this addition, our total fleet is now comprised of 68 737-800s, 21 737 MAX 9s and 9 737-700s. These figures include 1 737-800 freighter and the 9 737-800s operated by Wingo.

現在轉向我們的艦隊。在第四季度，我們收到了 2 架波音 737 MAX 9，到年底共有 97 架飛機，而 2019 年年底我們的機隊有 102 架飛機。2023 年 1 月，我們又收到了另外一架 737 MAX 9，以帶來我們的機隊總數達到 98 架飛機。加上這一增加，我們的總機隊現在由 68 737-800、21 737 MAX 9 和 9 737-700 組成。這些數字包括 1 737-800 貨機和由 Wingo 運營的 9 737-800。

2/3 of our fleet continue to be comprised of owned aircraft and 1/3 of our aircraft are under operating leases. During the remainder of 2023, we expect to receive 11 additional aircraft, all Boeing 737 MAX 9s. We have been informed by Boeing of additional delivery delays in our 2023 delivery stream. So we now expect all 11 aircraft pending to be delivered during the year to have between 2 to 4 months of delays versus the original delivery date.

我們 2/3 的機隊仍然由自有飛機組成，1/3 的飛機處於經營租賃狀態。在 2023 年剩餘時間內，我們預計將接收 11 架額外的飛機，全部為波音 737 MAX 9。波音公司已通知我們 2023 年交付流中的額外交付延遲。因此，我們現在預計年內待交付的所有 11 架飛機將比原定交付日期延遲 2 至 4 個月。

As to our outlook, based on the current demand environment and the expected delivery dates for our incoming aircraft, we can provide the following guidance for full year 2023. We expect to increase our capacity in ASMs versus 2022 within the range of 12% to 14%, and we expect an operating margin within the range of 17% to 19%.

至於我們的展望，根據當前的需求環境和我們新飛機的預期交付日期，我們可以為 2023 年全年提供以下指導。我們預計與 2022 年相比，我們的 ASM 容量將增加 12% 至 14% %，我們預計營業利潤率在 17% 至 19% 之間。

We're basing our outlook on the following assumptions: load factor of approximately 85%; unit revenues within the range of $0.121, CASM ex-fuel to be in the range of $0.06, mainly due to the additional costs associated with our engines and the longer maintenance shop and turnaround times that we expect for this year; and finally, we are expecting an all-in fuel price of $3.15 per gallon. Thank you. And with that, we'll open the call to some questions.

我們的展望基於以下假設： 載客率約為 85%；單位收入在 0.121 美元範圍內，CASM 前燃料在 0.06 美元範圍內，這主要是由於與我們的發動機相關的額外成本以及我們預計今年維修車間和周轉時間更長；最後，我們預計燃油總價為每加侖 3.15 美元。謝謝。有了這個，我們將打開一些問題的電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg。

Congrats on the great results, team. Two questions here. I guess, first -- two questions here. Just the first, can -- Pedro, can you actually update us on some of the shareholder initiatives, the share repurchase and where things stand with respect to dividend reinstatement? .

祝賀團隊取得了出色的成績。這裡有兩個問題。我想，首先 - 這裡有兩個問題。首先，佩德羅，你能否向我們介紹一些股東倡議、股票回購以及恢復股息的情況？ .

Yes. Okay. So I'll answer the second part, and then I'll let Jose address the repurchase part. So the Board met last week and decided to discuss the dividend repayment decision at an upcoming board meeting towards the second half of March, so this coming month where we're going to present our budget, our CapEx need, our cash flow, et cetera. So they decided to make the decision then. So that will be in like a month or -- yes, like a month or so.

是的。好的。所以我會回答第二部分，然後讓 Jose 解決回購部分。因此董事會上週開會並決定在即將於 3 月下半月召開的董事會會議上討論股息償還決定，因此下個月我們將展示我們的預算、我們的資本支出需求、我們的現金流等.所以他們決定在那時做出決定。所以這將在一個月左右——是的，一個月左右。

Yes. Mike, in terms of the share repurchase program, we were active last year in the program. We have a currently approved $200 million program that is essentially halfway completed. And of course, the objective of the program is to maximize shareholder value. And the other component of the strategy behind the program is to have liability management vis-a-vis the convert as well. So that's kind of the strategy that we have with the share repurchase program.

是的。邁克，就股票回購計劃而言，我們去年在該計劃中很活躍。我們有一個目前已批准的 2 億美元計劃，該計劃基本上已經完成了一半。當然，該計劃的目標是最大化股東價值。該計劃背後的戰略的另一個組成部分是對轉換者進行責任管理。這就是我們在股票回購計劃中採用的策略。

Okay. Great. And then just my second, when we look at the 12% to 14% capacity growth, you've already announced 3 new cities, right, Baltimore, Austin and Manta. Should we anticipate more cities? And as we think about the 12% to 14%, is it mostly connecting the dots -- really not even connecting, is it mostly adding frequency or depth to the schedule? Is it 50-50 new cities? I'm just curious about the type of growth and low versus high risk type growth?

好的。偉大的。然後是我的第二個，當我們看到 12% 到 14% 的容量增長時，你已經宣布了 3 個新城市，巴爾的摩、奧斯汀和曼塔。我們應該期待更多的城市嗎？當我們考慮 12% 到 14% 時，它主要是連接點——實際上什至沒有連接，主要是增加時間表的頻率或深度嗎？是50-50個新城市嗎？我只是對增長類型以及低風險和高風險類型增長感到好奇？

Correct. So my answer in a way is all of the above. But 50% of the capacity growth in 2023 comes from the full year effect of the additions in 2022, both frequencies and new destinations added in '22. Then the other 50% is mostly additional frequencies in current markets. And then a smaller part of that 50% is going to be new destinations. We have announced 3 that you mentioned, and we are hoping to announce an additional at least 2, 2-or-so for the end of the year.

正確的。所以我的回答在某種程度上是以上所有。但 2023 年 50% 的運力增長來自 2022 年增加的全年效應，包括 22 年增加的頻率和新目的地。然後另外 50% 主要是當前市場中的附加頻率。然後這 50% 中的一小部分將成為新目的地。我們已經宣布了您提到的 3 個，我們希望在年底再宣布至少 2 個、2 個左右。

Pedro, the 2-or-so that you're looking to announce, are they some of the destinations that you served prior to COVID that you have yet to restart? Or are they completely new destinations?

佩德羅，您要宣布的 2-or-so-so，它們是否是您在 COVID 之前提供服務但尚未重新啟動的一些目的地？或者它們是全新的目的地？

No, I meant to say new destinations. We still have about 8 destinations we haven't restarted from pre-COVID, and we hope to also reinstate some of those during the year.

不，我的意思是說新的目的地。我們還有大約 8 個目的地尚未從 COVID 之前重新開始，我們希望也能在年內恢復其中一些。

Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Just on the traditional pattern of margins 4Q to 1Q, typically, we actually see some pickup sequentially from 4Q to 1Q. And if you think about the kind of roughly 25% margin, that you posted here. How do you think about that into 1Q? And I guess what we're trying to get a feel for is how much conservatism you've baked into the second half of the year because it just feels like a lot.

就傳統的 4Q 至 1Q 利潤率模式而言，通常情況下，我們實際上會看到 4Q 至 1Q 的連續回升。如果您考慮一下您在此處發布的那種大約 25% 的保證金。您如何看待 1Q？而且我想我們想要了解的是你在今年下半年培養了多少保守主義，因為它感覺很多。

Right. So Duane, and of course, it's only February. So we're going to be cautious in how we try to forecast 9, what -- 11 months we have ahead of us. But I should also say that Q4 was not necessarily a typical Q4, but I'll let Jose maybe get into more detail.

正確的。 Duane，當然，現在才二月。因此，我們在嘗試預測 9 個月、11 個月後會保持謹慎。但我還應該說，第四季度不一定是典型的第四季度，但我會讓 Jose 了解更多細節。

Yes. Duane, Q4 was particularly strong for a couple of reasons. One, there was a strong demand environment in the region. Number two, most of the sales that were performed before Q4 were made during a period where fuel was still high, and then fuel came down during the quarter as well versus where it was in Q3. So that created a very, very strong result for the quarter. Your item, I think that was kind of getting into this. We decided to go back to our yearly guidance. So we're providing a full year guidance. For Q1, I would say from a top line sort of RASM perspective, you could argue that in Q1, there is a maybe a slight reduction. The guidance assumes a slight reduction in the RASM versus the Q4 RASM that was very, very strong. But that's just a function of -- there's a little bit more capacity in the network. And the other item there is -- fuel is a little bit lower as well. So there's some of that dynamic going on there, but we expect Q1 to have a good development in terms of its profitability from what we're seeing at so far.

是的。杜安，由於幾個原因，第四季度特別強勁。第一，該地區的需求環境強勁。第二，在第四季度之前進行的大部分銷售都是在燃料仍然很高的時期進行的，然後燃料在本季度以及與第三季度的水平相比有所下降。因此，這為本季度創造了非常非常強勁的結果。你的項目，我認為這是一種進入這個。我們決定回到我們的年度指南。所以我們提供了全年的指導。對於第一季度，我想說從 RASM 的頂線角度來看，你可以說在第一季度，可能會略有減少。該指南假設 RASM 與非常非常強勁的第四季度 RASM 相比略有下降。但這只是一個功能 - 網絡中有更多的容量。還有另一個項目——燃料也有點低。所以那裡有一些動態，但我們預計第一季度在我們目前所看到的盈利能力方面會有良好的發展。

Okay. I mean fuel is lower sequentially as obviously, fuel has been all over the place, but it is lower sequentially, at least our view today 4Q to 1Q. And then maybe just for the follow-up on the pilot contract announcement, can you speak to the magnitude of that, I assume that's in your full year cost guidance? How should we think about that?

好的。我的意思是燃料顯然是連續下降的，燃料到處都是，但它是連續下降的，至少我們今天認為 4Q 到 1Q 是這樣。然後也許只是為了跟進試點合同公告，你能說說它的重要性嗎，我想這在你的全年成本指導中？我們應該如何考慮？

Right, Duane. So this is a process we go through every 4 years with all of our unions, including our pilot unions. You usually don't even find out because there isn't a lot of noise out there about it. It's usually a very professional, and I don't know -- I don't want to say friendly, but professional and respectful negotiation. It wasn't any different this year. Only that it got out in the news. So a little bit more noise was made out of this. The agreement was signed last week as [always], usually gets signed on the last, on the due date. And it was not much different to what we have signed in previous negotiations 4 years ago or 8 years ago, not very different. And it should not have an impact that we cannot cover with other efficiencies and growth and things like that.

對，杜安。因此，這是我們每 4 年與我們所有工會（包括我們的試點工會）一起經歷的過程。你通常甚至不會發現，因為那裡沒有太多關於它的噪音。這通常是非常專業的，我不知道——我不想說友好，而是專業和尊重的談判。今年沒有任何不同。只是它上了新聞。因此，由此產生了更多的噪音。該協議是上週簽署的 [always]，通常在截止日期的最後一天簽署。這與我們在 4 年前或 8 年前的先前談判中籤署的內容沒有太大區別，差別不大。它不應該產生我們無法用其他效率和增長以及類似的東西來彌補的影響。

It is -- just to be clear, it is included in our guide for 2023 in terms of ex-fuel CASM. And again, it's in line with what we have signed in the past with that group. And it was signing -- I think the conclusion to the negotiations we've done in a very good spirit.

它是 - 需要明確的是，它包含在我們 2023 年的前燃料 CASM 指南中。而且，這與我們過去與該小組簽署的協議一致。它正在簽署——我認為我們本著非常好的精神完成了談判的結論。

And it's in line with inflation in Panama also. Inflation in Panama is in the 2% to 3% range. So it's also in line with that, and I get very similar to what we have signed in the past. It's in the guidance, of course.

這也與巴拿馬的通貨膨脹一致。巴拿馬的通貨膨脹率在 2% 到 3% 之間。所以它也符合這一點，我得到的結果與我們過去簽署的非常相似。當然，它在指南中。

Our next question comes from the line of Rogerio Araujo of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rogerio Araujo。

I had one follow-up on maybe supply/demand. So there is a [RASM] implied in the guidance that is about [12%] [of 93] level and fourth Q was 20%, 21% above [93] levels. So I would like you guys to comment what is driving that. So you already mentioned that some of the fourth Q tickets has been sold when oil price was at a higher level. But can you break down maybe 3 segments here. One is the higher frequencies from Copa, how it should impact expected yields. The higher -- the expected capacity expansion from competitors, and also demand, do you expect some demand weakening? Is there -- I don't know, maybe I think that the demand environment currently that is expected to be normalized? So how are you thinking about Copa's supply, competitor supply and demand?

我對可能的供應/需求進行了一次跟進。因此，指導中隱含的 [RASM] 約為 [93] 水平的 [12%]，第四 Q 為 20%，比 [93] 水平高出 21%。所以我希望你們評論是什麼推動了這一點。所以你已經提到，當油價處於較高水平時，一些第四張票已經售出。但是你能在這里分解 3 個部分嗎？一是 Copa 的頻率更高，它應該如何影響預期產量。更高 - 競爭對手的預期產能擴張以及需求，您是否預計需求會有所減弱？有沒有——我不知道，也許我認為目前的需求環境預計會正常化？那麼你如何看待Copa的供應，競爭對手的供應和需求？

Thank you, Rogerio, for the question. I will start by saying that this is early in the year, so the visibility towards the latter part of the year is still limited. But from what we're seeing, at least in Q1, demand environment continues being relatively strong versus what we saw in Q4. I think that for both on the unit revenue side and in the load factor side, looks relatively strong, maybe a tad down versus, again, Q4, but in general terms, still very strong system-wide and all regions seem to have that sort of same behavior. From -- in terms of what we're seeing when you compare, let's say, the unit revenues for the second half of 2022 and the full year 2023 guidance that we've issued. I would say that the majority of the component in terms of the change in RASM is related to the fuel curve assumption that we have or the fuel curve that we have based our unit revenues in. I would say about 2/3 of the movement is related to that. And then the other part is related to the capacity that we brought in. And we are increasing capacity for the full year by the range of 12% to 14%. So it is an important and double-digit movement in capacity. So I would say those are the 2 movements, but it's -- again, fuel and capacity on our own capacity is what's driving the guidance for '23.

謝謝 Rogerio 提出的問題。我首先要說的是，這是今年年初，所以今年下半年的能見度仍然有限。但從我們所看到的情況來看，至少在第一季度，與我們在第四季度看到的相比，需求環境繼續相對強勁。我認為，無論是在單位收入方面還是在載客率方面，看起來都相對強勁，與第四季度相比可能略有下降，但總的來說，整個系統仍然非常強勁，而且所有地區似乎都有這種情況相同的行為。從 - 就我們在比較時看到的情況而言，比方說，2022 年下半年的單位收入和我們發布的 2023 年全年指導。我想說 RASM 變化的大部分組成部分與我們擁有的燃料曲線假設或我們基於單位收入的燃料曲線有關。我想說大約 2/3 的運動是與此有關。然後另一部分與我們引入的產能有關。我們將全年的產能增加 12% 至 14%。因此，這是一次重要的兩位數運力變動。所以我會說這是兩個動作，但它是——再次，燃料和我們自己能力的能力是推動 23 年指導的因素。

Congratulations on the very strong results.

祝賀你取得了非常好的結果。

Thank you, Rogerio.

謝謝你，羅傑里奧。

Our next question comes from the line of Savi Syth of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

If I might, on the capacity front, could you talk a little bit about -- just from a MAX delivery standpoint, how you expect that to kind of come throughout the year and kind of the capacity cadence there, which related to that is also kind of the fuel efficiency, do you expect that to improve as we go through the year? Or is it just based on kind of the routes that you're adding, do we -- maybe shorter haul routes or anything around that, that may be causes fuel efficiency to maybe not improve despite the MAX delivery?

如果可以的話，在產能方面，你能否談談 - 僅從 MAX 交付的角度來看，你預計全年會出現這種情況，以及那裡的產能節奏，這也與此相關某種燃油效率，您是否希望隨著我們度過這一年而有所改善？或者它只是基於您要添加的路線種類，我們 - 可能是較短的運輸路線或任何相關的東西，這可能會導致燃油效率可能不會提高，儘管 MAX 交付？

Yes. I would say, Savi, that the cadence throughout the year, I would say that most of the growth will probably occur during the second half. So it will be more anything backloaded into the second half of the year. We're seeing for Q1, again, a growth on a sequential basis and low single digits versus Q4. And remember that in -- but also there's the impact of -- I mean, again, here we're comparing against '22 in total. So there is also the impact of Omicron at the beginning of the year a little bit. So there's some noise in the base of '22 to '23. So it's mostly backloaded into the second half of the year. And yes, the benefits in terms of fuel consumption for the MAX is there. It's in the double-digit range versus low double-digit range versus the NG. So we're seeing that, and I think that's an assumption to make in the fuel consumption part of the model.

是的。我想說，薩維，全年的節奏，我想說大部分增長可能會發生在下半年。因此，今年下半年將有更多的東西被加載。與第四季度相比，我們再次看到第一季度的連續增長和低個位數增長。請記住，在 - 但也有影響 - 我的意思是，再次，我們在這裡與 22 年的總數進行比較。所以也有一點點年初Omicron的影響。所以在 22 年到 23 年的基數中有一些噪音。所以它主要被倒裝到今年下半年。是的，MAX 在油耗方面的優勢就在那裡。它在兩位數範圍內，而在低兩位數範圍內與 NG 相比。所以我們看到了這一點，我認為這是在模型的油耗部分做出的假設。

Which is, of course, in our guidance.

當然，這是在我們的指導下。

Yes, of course.

是的當然。

Got it. And if I might, on the Wingo, increased 1 more aircraft. I don't know if that was kind of expected or not. Could you just talk about what's -- how you're thinking about Wingo and how that's evolving based on what you're seeing in the environment today?

知道了。如果可以的話，在 Wingo 上，再增加 1 架飛機。我不知道這是否符合預期。你能談談你是如何看待 Wingo 的，以及它是如何根據你今天在環境中看到的情況而演變的嗎？

Sure. So Wingo did go from 8 aircraft at the beginning of 2022 to 9 is something we had planned for. However, the Colombia market is very competitive right now. I would say it has overcapacity. So we think that Wingo for 2023 is going to remain at 9 aircraft. So we don't see Wingo growing much this year except for better utilization of its fleet. And they'll do a few things, they'll add some markets, they'll shift capacity around, but they will remain with 9 aircraft during the year.

當然。所以 Wingo 確實從 2022 年初的 8 架飛機增加到 9 架，這是我們計劃好的。然而，哥倫比亞市場目前競爭非常激烈。我會說它產能過剩。所以我們認為 2023 年的 Wingo 將保持在 9 架飛機。因此，除了更好地利用其機隊外，我們認為今年 Wingo 不會有太大增長。他們會做一些事情，他們會增加一些市場，他們會轉移產能，但他們將在這一年保持 9 架飛機。

Our next question comes from the line of Bruno Amorim of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Bruno Amorim。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So the question is actually a follow-up on the outlook for '23. Just wanted to make sure that we got the right message. Is it fair to say that you are taking advantage of the fact that margins are running above trend to stimulate some demand and bring margins back to -- what were the historical levels? Because I understand fourth quarter was particularly strong, but even if you look at third quarter, margin was 18% already with much higher fuel prices, right? So it does seem that all else held constant, there was room for margins to be better in 2023?

所以這個問題實際上是對 23 年前景的跟進。只是想確保我們收到正確的信息。可以公平地說，您正在利用利潤率高於趨勢這一事實來刺激一些需求並將利潤率帶回曆史水平嗎？因為我知道第四季度特別強勁，但即使你看第三季度，利潤率已經達到 18%，燃油價格高得多，對吧？因此，似乎其他所有因素都保持不變，2023 年利潤率有提高的空間嗎？

Yes. So we -- I'll start and then let Jose finish the question. But in Q3, we were able to cover our fuel expense with higher yields. And of course, when fuel is up, most -- every airline is affected in the same way, and it's a lot easier to get fair actions matched by everyone, which is what happened in the second half of the year. In Q4, we had a very strong month of October, where load factor was about 90%. That's way above our high average -- it's even above our high average. And then fuel started coming down in the latter part of the quarter, while yields remain higher than before. So we don't think that's sustainable, and we're seeing that -- and it's experience from the past also when fuel comes down, airlines are a little bit more aggressive in their pricing and -- we've seen a lot of that or some of that, I should say. So the expectation is for Q1 that demand will be slightly lower but still very healthy, but we won't have in October. So the rest will be very similar. And yield will be also slightly lower due to the fuel reduction. I don't know, if you want to add something...

是的。所以我們 - 我將開始，然後讓 Jose 完成問題。但在第三季度，我們能夠以更高的收益來支付燃料費用。當然，當燃料用完時，大多數——每家航空公司都會受到同樣的影響，而且更容易讓每個人都採取公平的行動，這就是下半年發生的事情。在第 4 季度，我們在 10 月份表現非常強勁，載客率約為 90%。這遠高於我們的平均水平——甚至高於我們的平均水平。然後燃料在本季度後半段開始下降，而收益率仍高於以前。所以我們認為這是不可持續的，而且我們看到了——這是過去的經驗，當燃料下降時，航空公司在定價上會更加激進——我們已經看到了很多這樣的情況或者其中一些，我應該說。因此，預計第一季度的需求會略有下降，但仍然非常健康，但我們不會在 10 月份出現。所以其餘的將非常相似。由於燃料減少，產量也會略有下降。我不知道，如果你想添加一些東西......

The point is that we're also growing by between 12% and 14%, which is a significant level of growth. And I think that, that's also a driver of our strategy for the year is just simply to continue sort of rebuilding the hub to where it was pre-pandemic. And I think that the margin guidance that we're providing is at the high end of what we have delivered on a yearly basis, over the last several years. So it is -- I think with the added growth it's precisely as you mentioned, a portion of the strategy that we're pursuing in terms of capturing new market or recapturing our markets.

關鍵是我們的增長率也在 12% 到 14% 之間，這是一個顯著的增長水平。而且我認為，這也是我們今年戰略的驅動力，只是繼續將樞紐重建到大流行前的位置。而且我認為我們提供的保證金指導處於過去幾年我們每年提供的指導的高端。所以它是 - 我認為正如你提到的那樣，隨著增長的增加，我們在佔領新市場或重新奪回市場方面所追求的戰略的一部分。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Stephen Trent。

I just had one or 2 quick follow-ups on the competitive environment. So it seems, for example, like Spirit Airlines has exited Florida, Panama that may have had some trouble competing there. And then in Colombia, I know you also just mentioned it, but it looks like VivaColombia is maybe looking a little wobbly from a competitive perspective. When you think about sort of broader capacity in the region? Do you see kind of medium- to longer-term upside for passenger capillarities through document?

我只是對競爭環境進行了一兩次快速跟進。因此，例如，Spirit Airlines 似乎已經退出了巴拿馬的佛羅里達州，在那裡的競爭可能遇到了一些麻煩。然後在哥倫比亞，我知道你也剛剛提到了它，但從競爭的角度來看，VivaColombia 看起來可能有點不穩定。當你考慮在該地區擴大容量時？您是否通過文件看到了乘客毛細管現象的中長期上行空間？

Yes. Actually, the 2 examples you have alluded to are not really that -- don't have a significant impact in our network. We don't compete much against either one and we have very little overlap. So those exiting certain markets don't really have an impact. And what we have seen is a tilt towards more ULCC competition in our network versus what would have been 8 years ago or even 4 years ago. So that's, I think, the big change, which is kind of -- it has 2 sides. One side is, of course, we need to remain very focused on our costs and our efficiencies, et cetera; but secondly, we are like in most markets, the only full-service carrier, so that gives us certain uniqueness.

是的。實際上，您提到的 2 個示例並非如此——對我們的網絡沒有重大影響。我們與其中任何一個的競爭都不多，而且我們的重疊很少。因此，那些退出某些市場的人並沒有真正產生影響。我們所看到的是，與 8 年前甚至 4 年前相比，我們的網絡中更傾向於 ULCC 競爭。所以，我認為，這是一個巨大的變化，它有兩個方面。一方面，當然，我們需要繼續非常關注我們的成本和效率等；但其次，我們就像大多數市場一樣，是唯一提供全方位服務的承運人，因此我們具有一定的獨特性。

But in general terms, as I mentioned, competition right now in our network, it's mostly ULCC. And I would say that most airlines have brought back most of the capacity to pre-pandemic levels or very close to it.

但總的來說，正如我提到的，現在我們網絡中的競爭主要是 ULCC。我要說的是，大多數航空公司已經將大部分運力恢復到大流行前的水平或非常接近大流行前的水平。

Very helpful, Pedro. And as my follow-up, just really quickly, I know you guys did very helpful guidance on the full year. I was wondering if you might have a higher level of view as to how we might think about sort of 1Q -- jet fuel kerosene sort of relatively where you could see it settling in.

非常有幫助，佩德羅。作為我的後續行動，很快，我知道你們在全年提供了非常有幫助的指導。我想知道你是否對我們如何看待 1Q 有更高層次的看法——噴氣燃料煤油相對於你可以看到它的位置。

Yes, Stephen, on a quarter-over-quarter basis versus Q4, fuel is down by about 4%. Yes. So that's kind of how we're seeing it on again, Q4 versus Q1.

是的，斯蒂芬，與第四季度相比，環比下降了約 4%。是的。所以這就是我們再次看到它的方式，第四季度與第一季度。

Our next question comes from the line of Helane Becker of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

Just two questions here. The first question is with respect to cargo. Can you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing right now, are you seeing similar declines to what others are seeing in the market? How are you thinking about utilizing the freight aircraft that you have?

這裡只有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於貨物的。你能談談你現在看到的情況嗎，你看到的下跌是否與市場上其他人看到的類似？您如何考慮利用您擁有的貨運飛機？

Right. So the first thing I should say is that cargo, it's only about 3% of our revenues. So it's not that significant. I mean it used to be 2.5%. So it's above what it used to be, but not by a huge margin. But we are operating our 737-800 freighter. It's operating great with good load factors and yields. It's actually operating over 10 hours per day, so we're getting the most out of it. And yields have come down a little bit. But in our network, most of our cargo still moves in the belly of our passenger and narrow-body fleet and the freighter is doing well. So we're not a big cargo carrier, and we should continue seeing improvement in our numbers -- in our cargo revenue numbers.

正確的。所以我首先要說的是貨運，它只占我們收入的 3% 左右。所以意義不大。我的意思是它曾經是 2.5%。所以它高於過去的水平，但幅度不大。但我們正在運營我們的 737-800 貨機。它運行良好，具有良好的負載係數和產量。它實際上每天運行 10 多個小時，因此我們充分利用了它。收益率有所下降。但在我們的網絡中，我們的大部分貨物仍在我們的客運和窄體機隊的腹部移動，貨機表現良好。所以我們不是一家大型貨運公司，我們應該繼續看到我們的數字有所改善——我們的貨運收入數字。

And it's contributing positively. I think with those figures to the business.

它正在做出積極貢獻。我認為這些數字對企業來說。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then my follow-up question is, how are you thinking about the convert? I think you can start buying it back in April. So what are you thinking about with respect to that?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後我的後續問題是，您如何看待轉換？我想你可以在四月份開始買回來。那麼您對此有何看法？

Yes, Helane, I would not necessarily get into details of particulars of the strategy. But yes, there is a call option that is available in April of this year. The convert has a -- the due date of the convert is actually April 2025. But what we have been doing in the past several months, as we discussed, has been very active in our buyback program, which also gives us optionality for the settlement of the convert as well. So it is kind of the strategy that we've pursued. And we have different options available to us on the table to be able to minimize the effective liability for us.

是的，Helane，我不一定會詳細介紹該戰略的細節。但是，是的，今年 4 月有一個看漲期權可供使用。轉換的截止日期實際上是 2025 年 4 月。但是正如我們所討論的，我們在過去幾個月中一直在做的事情在我們的回購計劃中非常活躍，這也為我們提供了和解的選擇權的轉換以及。所以這是我們追求的一種策略。我們在桌面上有不同的選擇，可以最大限度地減少我們的實際責任。

Our last question comes from the line of Josh Milberg of Morgan Stanley.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Milberg。

Congrats on the results. I just wanted to ask if you could touch on your CASM ex outlook. And what factors could eventually enable you to beat the $0.06 level. And what I have in mind is eventually greater seat densification. And I know that in the past, you've said you wouldn't be complacent about that level. And I also wanted to understand what's incorporated in your CASM ex guidance on -- in terms of pilot crew salary adjustments. I joined the call a little bit late, so I'm sorry if you already addressed that.

祝賀結果。我只是想問問你是否可以談談你的 CASM ex 前景。哪些因素最終能讓你突破 0.06 美元的水平。我的想法是最終增加座位密度。我知道在過去，你曾說過你不會對那個水平感到自滿。而且我還想了解您的 CASM 前指導中包含的內容 - 在飛行員工資調整方面。我加入電話會議有點晚了，如果你已經解決了這個問題，我很抱歉。

Yes, Josh, thank you for the question. The -- I'll answer the last portion first. And yes, in our 2023 guidance of $0.06, there we have included all the impact associated with all our salary, wages and benefits contracts, et cetera. And so it's all in there. In terms of the guide for 2023, it does include an increase in maintenance costs associated with engine, shop visits and lease engine rentals that we have. And so that's basically the driver that is offsetting some of the improvements that we have due to the capacity impact and due to the distribution benefits that we've achieved in the last quarter with our new distribution strategy. So that's kind of why the CASM is remaining flat for 2023.

是的，喬希，謝謝你提出這個問題。 -- 我會先回答最後一部分。是的，在我們 2023 年 0.06 美元的指導中，我們已經包括了與我們所有薪水、工資和福利合同等相關的所有影響。所以一切都在裡面。就 2023 年的指南而言，它確實包括與我們擁有的發動機、商店參觀和租賃發動機租金相關的維護成本的增加。因此，這基本上是抵消了我們由於容量影響以及我們在上個季度通過新的分銷策略實現的分銷優勢而帶來的一些改進的驅動因素。這就是 CASM 在 2023 年保持平穩的原因。

But as you will mention, we have still optionality related to the fleet densification program. We expect to conclude this portion of our fleet densification program during the middle part of the year, but there's another portion that is coming in subsequent years and there's further opportunities in distribution and in others.

但正如您將提到的，我們仍然有與機隊緻密化計劃相關的選擇權。我們希望在今年年中完成我們機隊密集化計劃的這一部分，但隨後幾年還會有另一部分，並且在分銷和其他方面還有更多機會。

The other component also that we're seeing growing a little bit in terms of unit cost this year that we're offsetting with some of the improvements that we are making is overflight fees are going up in a couple of countries in Colombia and Brazil this year that is driving some cost pressures upward.

我們看到今年單位成本略有增長的另一個組成部分是我們正在做的一些改進抵消了哥倫比亞和巴西的幾個國家的飛越費用推動一些成本壓力上升的一年。

But again, we've been able to mitigate that with some of the other improvements that we've made in our -- just in the business. So again, to summarize, we're keeping a CASM expectation for this year, flat versus 2022, again, driven by some incremental maintenance expenses, [drive offs] and overflight fees and offset by some of the improvements that we made in distribution and the capacity impact that we have. And pending, of course, densification going forward.

但同樣，我們已經能夠通過我們在我們的業務中所做的其他一些改進來緩解這種情況。因此，再次總結一下，我們對今年的 CASM 預期保持不變，與 2022 年持平，這再次受到一些增量維護費用、[開車] 和飛越費用的推動，並被我們在分銷和銷售方面所做的一些改進所抵消我們的產能影響。當然，還有待進一步的緻密化。

Okay. That's great, Jose. And then if you could just touch very quickly on what you're seeing in terms of corporate versus leisure trends in the first quarter and in the first half. I know you guys always get that question.

好的。太好了，何塞。然後，如果您能快速了解第一季度和上半年的企業與休閒趨勢方面的情況。我知道你們總是會問這個問題。

Yes, it's still not fully recovered. I would say, right now, leisure VFR is about 3/4 of the total volume of passengers that we're serving and about 1/4 is related to business. So it is still not back to the sort of 2/3, 1/3 where it was pre-pandemic.

是的，它還沒有完全恢復。我想說，現在，休閒 VFR 大約占我們服務的乘客總數的 3/4，大約 1/4 與商務有關。所以它仍然沒有回到大流行前的那種 2/3、1/3。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Pedro Heilbron for closing remarks. Sir?

此時，我想將電話轉回給 Pedro Heilbron 以作結束語。先生？

Yes. Okay. Thank you, and thank you all. This concludes our earnings call. Thank you for being with us. Thanks for your continued support, and have a great day. Have a great weekend, and we'll see you next time. Thank you very much.

是的。好的。謝謝，也謝謝大家。我們的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您與我們在一起。感謝您一直以來的支持，祝您有美好的一天。祝週末愉快，我們下次再見。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. That concludes the presentation. You may disconnect and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。演示文稿到此結束。您可能會斷開連接並度過美好的一天。