CMS能源 (CMS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the CMS Energy 2023 Year-end Results. The earnings news release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. This call is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎閱讀 CMS Energy 2023 年年終業績。今天稍早發布的收益新聞稿以及本次網路廣播中使用的簡報可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分取得。此通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Just a reminder, there will be a brief broadcast of this conference call today, beginning at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time running through February 8. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section.

請注意，今天中午 12:00 開始將進行簡短的電話會議直播。東部時間持續至 2 月 8 日。該簡報也進行網路直播，並可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分查看。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Srikanth Maddipati, Treasurer and Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話轉給財務主管兼財務和投資者關係副總裁 Srikanth Maddipati 先生。

Thank you, Emily. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me are Garrick Rochow, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rejji Hayes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，艾米麗。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Garrick Rochow；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rejji Hayes。

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding the risks and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure are included in the appendix and posted on our website.

本簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解有關可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的風險和其他因素的更多資​​訊。本簡報也包括非公認會計原則措施。這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳包含在附錄中並發佈在我們的網站上。

As some of you may know, this will be my last earnings call as I have transitioned to a new role in the company responsible for our electric supply and the implementation of the new energy law. While I'm excited for my new role and responsibility, I will miss working with all of you in the investment community so closely. I want to thank you for the support you've all given me and this company.

你們中的一些人可能知道，這將是我的最後一次財報電話會議，因為我已經調任公司的新角色，負責我們的電力供應和新能源法的實施。雖然我對自己的新角色和責任感到興奮，但我會懷念與投資界所有人如此密切的合作。我要感謝你們給予我和這家公司的支持。

Jason Shore, a 25-year veteran at CMS has been named Treasurer and VP of Investor Relations. As I hand over the baton, I'm confident in Jason (inaudible).

在 CMS 工作了 25 年的資深人士傑森·肖爾 (Jason Shore) 被任命為財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁。當我交出接力棒時，我對傑森充滿信心（聽不清楚）。

And now I'll turn the call over to Garrick.

現在我將把電話轉給加里克。

Thank you, Sri, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Before I get started, I want to thank Sri for his leadership in the finance area, and I look forward to his continued growth and impact as he takes on this important role in electric supply, where he'll lead critical filings like our Renewable Energy plan and Integrated Resource plan, which I will discuss later in this call.

謝謝斯里，謝謝大家今天加入我們。在開始之前，我要感謝 Sri 在財務領域的領導，我期待他在電力供應領域擔任這一重要角色時的持續成長和影響，他將領導我們的可再生能源等關鍵文件的提交計劃和綜合資源計劃，我將在本次電話會議稍後討論。

We have a deep bench of talent at CMS Energy and it is critically important that we develop our leaders in key areas of the business, continuing to strengthen the bench, build dexterity and provide challenging growth opportunities. I know both Sri and Jason will make a big impact in their new roles. I've shared before on these calls, this isn't our first rodeo. The CMS team delivers now 21 years of exceptional performance. I am proud to share with you the highlights of the year, and I am proud of this team.

CMS Energy 擁有深厚的人才儲備，至關重要的是，我們在關鍵業務領域培養領導者，繼續加強人才儲備，培養靈活性並提供具有挑戰性的成長機會。我知道斯里和傑森都會在他們的新角色中產生巨大的影響。我之前曾在這些電話中分享過，這不是我們的第一次牛仔競技表演。 CMS 團隊至今已取得 21 年的卓越業績。我很自豪能與大家分享這一年的亮點，我為這個團隊感到自豪。

You will see the numbers and our operational highlights, 2023, what incredible year. We met and face challenges that tested our team, and we rose to the occasion. First, let's talk about the weather. The 2022, 2023 winter was in the top 10 warmest on record. And then there was summer, when much of the world saw warmer temperatures, hot summer influenced by El Nino conditions was cooler than normal. And then December 2023, the second warmest December on record, add to that record storm activity within our service territory. To say the least, it was a challenging year. Despite severe storms and unfavorable weather, we delivered and offset nearly $300 million of weather-related financial headwinds, serving our customers with heat and light and keeping our financial commitments for our investors.

您將看到這些數字和我們的營運亮點，2023 年，多麼令人難以置信的一年。我們遇到並面臨考驗我們團隊的挑戰，但我們挺身而出。首先，我們來談談天氣。 2022 年和 2023 年的冬季位列有史以來最熱的 10 個冬季之列。然後是夏季，世界大部分地區氣溫升高，受厄爾尼諾現象影響的炎熱夏季比正常情況涼爽。然後，2023 年 12 月（有記錄以來第二熱的 12 月）將在我們的服務區域內增加創紀錄的風暴活動。至少可以說，這是充滿挑戰的一年。儘管遭遇了嚴重的風暴和不利的天氣，我們還是交付並抵消了近 3 億美元的與天氣相關的財務逆風，為我們的客戶提供了熱能和照明，並履行了對投資者的財務承諾。

This world-class team comes together, and we do what we say we will do year in and year out, no excuses, just results. As I said earlier, I'm proud of the team at CMS Energy. There are a number of great things we delivered in the year, even more than are represented on Slide 4.

這個世界級的團隊聚集在一起，我們年復一年地言出必行，沒有藉口，只有結果。正如我之前所說，我為 CMS Energy 的團隊感到自豪。我們在這一年中完成了許多偉大的事情，甚至比幻燈片 4 中所展示的還要多。

In the interest of time, I want to hit on just a few. I want to highlight the Freedom Award from the Secretary of Defense and why this is so special. This is the highest recognition a company can receive for supporting their employees who serve in the Guard and Reserve. The nomination was submitted by one of our employees and demonstrates the commitment of our entire company. This is an important part of our culture to support and care for our people and to honor our coworkers who serve our customers and our country.

由於時間關係，我只想簡單介紹幾個。我想強調國防部長頒發的自由獎以及為什麼它如此特別。這是公司因支持在警衛隊和預備役服役的員工而獲得的最高認可。該提名由我們的一名員工提交，體現了我們整個公司的承諾。這是我們文化的重要組成部分，支持和關心我們的員工，並向為我們的客戶和國家服務的同事表示敬意。

We continue our focus on leading the clean energy transformation. In 2023, we retired over 500 megawatts of coal, further reducing our carbon footprint. Alongside these retirements, we ensured resource adequacy with the acquisition of the 1.2-gigawatt Covert natural gas generating station and brought online our 201 megawatts Heartland wind farm. This thought will transition ensures customer reliability as we move our portfolio from coal to clean.

我們持續致力於引領清潔能源轉型。 2023 年，我們淘汰了超過 500 兆瓦的煤炭，進一步減少了我們的碳足跡。除了這些退役之外，我們還收購了 1.2 吉瓦的 Covert 天然氣發電站，並將我們的 201 兆瓦的 Heartland 風電場投入使用，確保了資源充足。當我們將產品組合從煤炭轉向清潔能源時，這種想法將確保客戶的可靠性。

I also want to give a shoutout to our small but important North Star Clean Energy team. We performed well in 2023, exceeding our expectations for the year, completing the [new] solar project and demonstrating strong operational performance at Dearborn Industrial Generation, DIG. Another solid year of execution at CMS Energy across the triple bottom line, delivering industry-leading, sustainable premium growth.

我還想向我們規模雖小但很重要的北極星清潔能源團隊表示感謝。我們在 2023 年表現良好，超越了我們對這一年的預期，完成了[新]太陽能項目，並在迪爾伯恩工業發電公司 (DIG) 展示了強勁的營運績效。 CMS Energy 又在三重底線的執行上取得了堅實的一年，實現了業界領先的可持續保費成長。

In 2023, Michigan also passed new energy legislation, starting the course for cleaner energy in Michigan, while maintaining resource adequacy, customer affordability and strengthening our financial plan. This legislation speaks to the constructive nature of Michigan, provides more incentives to grow our clean energy portfolio, furthering investment opportunities with increased certainty of recovery.

2023 年，密西根州也通過了新能源立法，啟動了密西根州的清潔能源課程，同時保持資源充足性、客戶負擔能力並加強我們的財務計畫。這項立法體現了密西根州的建設性性質，為發展我們的清潔能源投資組合提供了更多激勵，透過增加復甦的確定性來進一步增加投資機會。

Now it's still early days. We're evaluating all aspects of the new law, including the strategic advantage of owning versus contracting supply, the increased incentive on PPAs. So what makes sense -- what makes the most sense for us and for our customers, the law provides a lot of flexibility and options, which is important. You'll see this play out in a couple of upcoming filings. I want to draw your attention to the renewable energy plan.

現在還為時過早。我們正在評估新法律的各個方面，包括擁有與承包供應相比的戰略優勢，以及對購電協議的更多激勵。那麼什麼是有意義的——什麼對我們和我們的客戶來說最有意義，法律提供了許多靈活性和選擇，這很重要。您將在即將提交的幾份文件中看到這一點。我想提請您注意再生能源計劃。

This is not a new filing but becomes a more important input in the integrated resource plan. The renewable energy plan will detail our path to meet the 60% renewable portfolio standard by 2035. As you might imagine, this work is underway. We plan to file in the second half of the year. Following our renewable energy plan filing, our next 20-year Integrated Resource Plan is due in 2027. Together, the renewable energy plan and integrated resource plan will align our supply resources to deliver cost competitive, cleaner and reliable energy as we target net-zero.

這不是新的備案，而是成為綜合資源計畫中更重要的輸入。再生能源計畫將詳細說明我們在 2035 年達到 60% 再生能源組合標準的路徑。正如您可能想像的那樣，這項工作正在進行中。我們計劃下半年提交。在我們提交再生能源計畫後，我們的下一個20 年綜合資源計畫將於2027 年到期。再生能源計畫和綜合資源計畫將共同調整我們的供應資源，以提供具有成本競爭力、更清潔和可靠的能源，以實現淨零排放的目標。

They also provide important transparency and certainty as we advance the business forward with investments in renewables and clean energy. Michigan Energy Law continues to support its strong regulatory environment in needed customer investment. While the recent legislation provides opportunities while our updated renewable energy plan, regulatory calendar is fairly routine in 2024. Our electric case -- our electric rate case, excuse me, continues toward a constructive outcome.

當我們透過再生能源和清潔能源投資推動業務發展時，它們還提供了重要的透明度和確定性。密西根能源法繼續支持其強大的監管環境，滿足所需的客戶投資。雖然最近的立法提供了機會，同時我們更新了可再生能源計劃，但 2024 年的監管日曆相當常規。我們的電力案例——對不起，我們的電費案例繼續取得建設性成果。

We've seen positive indicators with key stakeholder support for recovery of customer investments, and important investment mechanisms such as the IRM and our undergrounding pilot.

我們看到了主要利害關係人對客戶投資回收的支持以及 IRM 和地下試點等重要投資機制的積極指標。

We expect an order from the commission on or before March 1. We follow our gas rate case in mid-December with an ask of $136 million with a 10.25% ROE and a 51.5% equity ratio, request lines with needed investment outlined in our 10-year natural gas delivery plan. We expect an order for the end of the year.

我們預計委員會會在3 月1 日或之前發出命令。我們按照12 月中旬的Gas Rate 案例，提出了1.36 億美元的要求，ROE 為10.25%，股本比率為51.5%，我們的10 中概述了所需投資的要求。年天然氣輸送計畫。我們預計今年底會有訂單。

On Slide 7, we've highlighted our new 5-year $17 billion utility customer investment plan, which supports approximately 7.5% rate base growth through 2028. You will note that about 40% of our customer investment opportunities to support renewable generation, grid modernization and main and service replacement on our gas business, which are critical as we lead the clean energy transformation. The plan also includes an increased investment in the electric distribution system to improve reliability and resiliency for our customers.

在投影片7 中，我們重點介紹了新的5 年170 億美元公用事業客戶投資計劃，該計劃支持到2028 年約7.5% 的利率基礎增長。您會注意到，我們約40% 的客戶投資機會用於支援再生能源發電、電網現代化我們的天然氣業務的主要和服務更換，這對於我們引領清潔能源轉型至關重要。該計劃還包括增加對配電系統的投資，以提高客戶的可靠性和彈性。

We also have growth drivers outside of traditional rate mix. These include adders built into legislation for incentives, our energy efficiency programs and the financial compensation mechanism we earn on PPA that I mentioned earlier. We also expect incremental earnings provided by our nonutility business, NorthStar Clean Energy as they see attractive pricing from capacity and energy sold at DIG. It's important to note we have a long and robust runway of additional investment opportunities, both within and beyond the 5-year window.

我們還有傳統費率組合以外的成長動力。其中包括納入激勵立法的加法器、我們的能源效率計劃以及我之前提到的透過購電協議獲得的經濟補償機制。我們也預期我們的非公用事業業務 NorthStar Clean Energy 會帶來增量收益，因為他們看到 DIG 出售的容量和能源的價格具有吸引力。值得注意的是，無論是在 5 年窗口之內還是之後，我們都擁有漫長而強勁的額外投資機會。

As an example, we've incorporated a little less than half of the incremental $3 billion of customer investment associated with our electric reliability roadmap. We've also not yet included the customer investments associated with the new energy law. These will be included in our renewable energy plan filing and will provide more opportunities for investment.

例如，我們已經納入了與我們的電力可靠性路線圖相關的 30 億美元增量客戶投資中的不到一半。我們還沒有包括與新能源法相關的客戶投資。這些將包含在我們的再生能源計畫備案中，並將提供更多投資機會。

I feel good about our 5-year utility investment plan. It is focused on our customers. It positions business for continued success in delivers for all stakeholders. With that, I'll conclude with the 2023 results and long-term outlook before passing it over to Rejji who will cover the financials in more detail. 2023, no excuses, no weather, no storms, just results. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $3.11 for the high end of our guidance range. I'm also pleased to share that we are raising our 2024 adjusted full year EPS guidance of $0.02 to $3.29 to $3.35 from $3.27 to $3.33 per share, compounding off of 2023 actual results.

我對我們的五年公用事業投資計劃感覺很好。它專注於我們的客戶。它使業務能夠持續成功地為所有利害關係人提供服務。最後，我將總結 2023 年的業績和長期前景，然後將其交給 Rejji，他將更詳細地介紹財務數據。 2023，沒有藉口，沒有天氣，沒有風暴，只有結果。我們的調整後每股收益為 3.11 美元，處於指導範圍的高端。我還很高興地告訴大家，我們將2024 年調整後全年每股收益指引從每股3.27 美元提高到3.33 美元，從0.02 美元提高到3.29 美元到3.35 美元，以2023 年實際結果為基礎進行複利計算。

Let me repeat, compounding off of actual, that is a differentiator in this sector. We continue to expect toward the high end of our 2024 guidance range, which points to our confidence as we start the year. Furthermore, the CMS Energy Board of Directors recently approved a dividend increase, $2.06 per share for 2024. Longer term, we continue to guide toward the high end of our adjusted EPS growth range of 6% to 8%, which implies it includes 7%, up to 8%.

讓我重複一遍，根據實際情況進行複利，這是該領域的差異化因素。我們繼續預計 2024 年指導範圍將達到上限，這表明我們對新年伊始充滿信心。此外，CMS Energy 董事會最近批准將 2024 年股息增加至每股 2.06 美元。從長遠來看，我們繼續指導調整後每股收益增長範圍的上限為 6% 至 8%，這意味著其中包括 7% ，高達8%。

Our dividend policy remains unchanged. We continue to grow the dividend. You'll see that we are targeting a dividend payout ratio of about 60% over time. Finally, we remain confident in our plan for 2024 and beyond, given our long-standing ability to manage the work and consistently deliver industry-leading growth.

我們的股利政策維持不變。我們繼續增加股利。您會發現，隨著時間的推移，我們的目標是股息支付率約為 60%。最後，鑑於我們長期以來管理工作和持續實現行業領先增長的能力，我們對 2024 年及以後的計劃仍然充滿信心。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Rejji.

這樣，我就把電話轉給 Rejji。

Thank you, Garrick, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，加里克，大家早安。

As Garrick highlighted, we delivered strong financial performance in 2023 with adjusted net income of $907 million, which translates to $3.11 per share towards the high end of our guidance range. The key drivers of our 2023 financial performance included strong cost performance throughout the organization, fueled by the CE Way, a solid beat at NorthStar and a variety of nonoperational countermeasures such as liability management and tax planning, which more than offset the significant weather-related headwinds experienced throughout the year. And to further underscore the magnitude of cost reforms delivered by our workforce, our fourth quarter operational operating and maintenance or O&M expense, exclusive of service restoration and vegetation management was approximately 25% below the comparable period in 2022 and over 20% below our 5-year average for this cost category, a truly impressive achievement.

正如加里克所強調的那樣，我們在 2023 年實現了強勁的財務業績，調整後淨利潤為 9.07 億美元，相當於每股 3.11 美元，接近我們指導範圍的高端。我們2023 年財務業績的關鍵驅動因素包括整個組織的強勁成本績效，這得益於CE 方式、NorthStar 的強勁表​​現以及負債管理和稅務規劃等各種非營運對策，這遠遠抵消了與天氣相關的重大影響全年都經歷逆風。為了進一步強調我們的員工隊伍所實施的成本改革的規模，我們第四季度的營運和維護或O&M 費用（不包括服務恢復和植被管理）比2022 年同期低約25%，比我們的5-5年同期低20% 以上。這一成本類別的年平均水平，是一個真正令人印象深刻的成就。

All in, we managed to offset nearly $300 million of weather-related financial headwinds without compromising our operational commitments to our customers and the communities we serve. At CMS, we've had plenty of years of adversity followed by impressive operational and financial feed. But I can't recall one quite like 2023, a year in which our workforce personified grid and displayed that perennial will to deliver for all stakeholders.

總而言之，我們成功抵消了近 3 億美元的與天氣相關的財務不利因素，同時又不影響我們對客戶和所服務社區的營運承諾。在 CMS，我們經歷了多年的逆境，隨後取得了令人印象深刻的營運和財務狀況。但我不記得像 2023 年這樣的一年，在這一年，我們的員工體現了網格的人格化，並展現了為所有利益相關者提供服務的長期意願。

To elaborate on the strength of our financial performance in 2023. On Slide 10, you'll note that we met or exceeded the vast majority of our key financial objectives for the year. From a financing perspective, we successfully settled $178 million in equity forward contracts in November and settled the remaining roughly $265 million in forwards in January. As a reminder, these forwards are priced at levels favorable to our planning assumptions. The only financial target missed in 2023 was related to our customer investment plan for utility, which was budgeted for $3.7 billion. We ended the year below that at $3.3 billion, primarily due to siting and permitting delays at select solar projects.

詳細說明我們 2023 年財務表現的實力。在投影片 10 上，您會注意到我們達到或超過了今年絕大多數的主要財務目標。從融資角度來看，我們在 11 月成功結算了 1.78 億美元的股票遠期合約，並在 1 月結算了剩餘的約 2.65 億美元的遠期合約。提醒一下，這些遠期合約的定價水準有利於我們的計畫假設。 2023 年唯一未能實現的財務目標與我們的客戶公用事業投資計劃有關，該計劃的預算為 37 億美元。去年年底，我們的收入為 33 億美元，主要是由於選定的太陽能專案的選址和允許延誤所致。

As mentioned in the past, we fully intend to build out all of the solar projects approved in our IRP and voluntary green pricing program. And with the Michigan renewable energy siting reform bill passed last fall, we should see better progress here going forward.

正如過去所提到的，我們完全打算建造我們的 IRP 和自願綠色定價計畫中批准的所有太陽能項目。隨著去年秋天密西根州再生能源選址改革法案的通過，我們應該會看到這裡有更好的進展。

Moving to our 2024 EPS guidance. On Slide 11, we are raising our 2024 adjusted earnings guidance range to $3.29 to $3.35 per share from $3.27 to $3.33 per share, as Garrick noted, with continued confidence toward the high end of the range. As you can see in the segment details, our EPS growth will primarily be driven by the utility providing $3.74 to $3.80 of adjusted earnings, the details of which I'll cover on the next slide.

轉向我們的 2024 年 EPS 指導。正如加里克指出的那樣，在幻燈片 11 中，我們將 2024 年調整後每股收益指引範圍從每股 3.27 美元至 3.33 美元上調至 3.29 美元至 3.35 美元，並對該範圍的高端繼續充滿信心。正如您在細分細節中看到的那樣，我們的每股收益成長將主要由提供 3.74 美元至 3.80 美元調整後收益的公用事業公司推動，我將在下一張幻燈片中介紹其詳細資訊。

At NorthStar, we're semi-EPS contribution of $0.16 to $0.18, which reflects strong underlying performance, primarily a big and ongoing contribution from our renewables business. Lastly, our financing assumptions remain conservative at the parent segment, and our 2024 guidance range assumes the absence of liability management transactions. As always, we'll remain opportunistic in this regard, and we'll look to capitalize on attractive market conditions that they arise. To elaborate on the glide path, which leaves our 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range, you'll see the usual waterfall chart on Slide 12.

在 NorthStar，我們的半每股盈餘貢獻為 0.16 美元至 0.18 美元，這反映了強勁的基本業績，主要是我們再生能源業務的巨大且持續的貢獻。最後，我們對母公司部門的融資假設仍然保守，我們 2024 年的指導範圍假設不存在負債管理交易。像往常一樣，我們將在這方面保持機會主義，並且我們將尋求利用它們出現的有吸引力的市場條件。為了詳細說明離開我們 2024 年調整後 EPS 指導範圍的下滑路徑，您將在投影片 12 上看到常見的瀑布圖。

For clarification purposes, all of the variance analyses herein are measured on a full year basis and are relative to 2023. From left to right, we'll plan for normal weather, which in this case amounts to $0.43 per share of positive year-over-year variance, given the absence of the typically mild temperatures experienced throughout 2023. Additionally, we anticipate $0.23 of EPS pickup attributable to great relief, driven by the residual benefits of last year's constructive gas rate case settlement and assumed support of outcomes in our pending electric and gas rate cases.

為了澄清起見，本文中的所有變異數分析均以全年為基礎進行測量，並且相對於2023 年。從左到右，我們將針對正常天氣進行規劃，在這種情況下，每股正值同比為0.43 美元考慮到2023 年全年沒有出現典型的溫和氣溫，我們預計每股收益將上漲0.23 美元，這歸因於去年建設性天然氣費率案件和解的剩餘收益以及假設對我們懸而未決的結果的支持所帶來的巨大緩解。電費和瓦斯費情況。

As always, our rate relief figures are stated net of investment-related costs which is depreciation, property taxes and utility interest expense. As we turn to our cost structure in 2024, you'll note $0.16 per share of positive variance due to continued productivity driven by the CE Way, the ongoing benefit of cost reduction measures implemented in 2023, which is our voluntary separation plan, which reduced our salaried workforce by roughly 10% and initiatives already underway. It is also worth noting that our cost assumptions exclude the impact of the catastrophic ice storm we experienced in the first quarter of 2023.

與往常一樣，我們的利率減免資料是扣除與投資相關的成本（即折舊、財產稅和公用事業利息費用）後的淨值。當我們轉向2024 年的成本結構時，您會注意到，由於CE Way 持續提高生產力，每股正差異為0.16 美元，這是2023 年實施的成本削減措施的持續好處，這是我們的自願離職計劃，減少了我們的受薪員工人數減少了大約 10%，並且相關措施已經在實施中。另外值得注意的是，我們的成本假設不包括 2023 年第一季經歷的災難性冰暴的影響。

Lastly, in the penultimate bar on the right-hand side, you'll note a significant negative variance, which largely consists of the reversal of select one-time cost reduction measures. These are partially offset by the ongoing benefit of our well-executed financing plan in 2023, and we're assuming the usual conservative assumptions around weather-normalized sales, taxes and nonutility performance among other items. In aggregate, these assumptions equate to $0.58 to $0.64 per share of negative variance. As always, we'll adapt to changing conditions throughout the year to mitigate risk and deliver our operational and financial objectives to the benefit of customers and investors.

最後，在右側倒數第二條中，您會注意到一個顯著的負方差，其中主要包括選定的一次性成本削減措施的逆轉。這些被我們執行良好的 2023 年融資計劃的持續效益所部分抵消，並且我們對天氣正常化銷售、稅收和非公用事業業績等項目做出了通常的保守假設。總的來說，這些假設相當於每股負方差 0.58 至 0.64 美元。像往常一樣，我們將適應全年不斷變化的情況，以降低風險並實現我們的營運和財務目標，使客戶和投資者受益。

On Slide 13, we have a summary of our near- and long-term financial objectives. To avoid being repetitive, I'll focus my remarks on those metrics we have not yet covered. From a balance sheet perspective, we continue to target solid investment-grade credit ratings, and we'll continue to manage our key credit metrics accordingly as we balance the needs of the business. As previously mentioned, we have already settled the remaining equity forwards and have no additional equity needs in 2024. Longer term, we intend to resume our at-the-market or ATM equity issuance program in the amount of up to $350 million per year beginning in 2025 and extending through 2028, which is essentially the same assumption in our previous 5-year plan, but for the extension of an additional year.

在投影片 13 上，我們總結了我們的近期和長期財務目標。為了避免重複，我將重點放在那些我們尚未涉及的指標。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們繼續以可靠的投資等級信用評級為目標，並且在平衡業務需求的同時，我們將繼續相應地管理我們的關鍵信用指標。如前所述，我們已經結算了剩餘的股權遠期，並且在 2024 年沒有額外的股權需求。從長遠來看，我們打算恢復每年高達 3.5 億美元的市場或 ATM 股權發行計劃。2025 年並延續到2028 年，這與我們之前的5 年計畫中的假設基本相同，只是再延長一年。

We're able to maintain our pre-existing equity needs despite an increased utility capital plan, given the expectation of strong operating cash flow generation and the ability to monetize tax credits courtesy of the Inflation Reduction Act. It is also worth noting that this morning's decision by Moody's to increase the equity credit ascribed to junior subordinated notes, which represents about 40% of our debt at the parent company is not embedded in our plan, thus providing further cushion in these metrics.

儘管增加了公用事業資本計劃，但考慮到強勁的營運現金流產生的預期以及透過《通貨膨脹減少法案》將稅收抵免貨幣化的能力，我們仍能夠維持現有的股本需求。另外值得注意的是，穆迪今天早上決定增加初級次級票據的股權信貸（約占我們母公司債務的40%），但這一決定並未納入我們的計劃中，從而為這些指標提供了進一步的緩衝。

Slide 14 offers more specificity on the balance of our funding needs in 2024, which are limited to debt issuances at the utility, over half of which has been opportunistically issued as noted on the page. And the coupon rate on this newly issued debt is favorable to plan, thus providing a helpful tailwind as we start the year. Over the coming year, we have no planned long-term financings at the parent and already redeemed its low maturity in January at par.

第 14 張投影片更詳細地介紹了 2024 年我們的資金需求平衡，這些需求僅限於公用事業公司的債務發行，其中一半以上是機會性發行的，如頁面上所述。這些新發行債務的票面利率有利於計劃，從而為我們新年伊始提供了有利的推動力。在接下來的一年裡，我們沒有計劃在母公司進行長期融資，並且已經在一月份按面值贖回了其低期限債券。

Longer term, we have relatively modest near-term maturities at the parent with $250 million due in 2025 and $300 million due in 2026.

從長遠來看，我們母公司的短期到期日相對溫和，2025 年到期 2.5 億美元，2026 年到期 3 億美元。

On Slide 15, we've refreshed our sensitivity analysis on key variables for your modeling assumptions. As you'll note, with reasonable planning assumptions and our track record of risk mitigation, the probability of large variances from our plan is minimized. Our model has served and we'll continue to serve all stakeholders well. Our customers receive safe, reliable and clean energy at affordable prices. Our diverse and battle-tested workforce remains committed to our purpose-driven organization, and our investors benefit from consistent industry-leading financial performance.

在投影片 15 上，我們更新了對建模假設的關鍵變數的敏感度分析。正如您將注意到的，透過合理的計劃假設和我們的風險緩解記錄，與我們的計劃出現較大差異的可能性被最小化。我們的模式已經發揮作用，我們將繼續為所有利害關係人提供良好的服務。我們的客戶以實惠的價格獲得安全、可靠和清潔的能源。我們多元化且久經考驗的員工隊伍仍然致力於我們以目標為導向的組織，我們的投資者也受益於始終如一的行業領先的財務表現。

Before I hand it back to Garrick, I would be remiss if I didn't take a moment to echo Garrick craze of Sri. I've worked closely with over the past 7 years. Sri's contributions to the finance team and the company have been immeasurable since he joined CMS. So thank you, Sri, for leaving it better than you found it, and I look forward to working with you and Jason in your new roles. And with that, I'll pass it on to Garrick for his final remarks before the Q&A session.

在我把它還給加里克之前，如果我沒有花點時間回應加里克對斯里的狂熱，那就是我的失職。過去 7 年我一直密切合作。自從加入 CMS 以來，Sri 對財務團隊和公司的貢獻是不可估量的。所以，謝謝你，斯里，讓它變得比你發現的更好，我期待著在新的角色中與你和傑森一起工作。接下來，我將把它轉交給加里克，讓他在問答環節之前做最後的演講。

Thank you, Rejji. You all know this last slide very well by now. Over 2 decades, regardless of conditions, no excuses, just results. Given the challenges of 2023, I'm extremely proud of the team's efforts. Our simple investment thesis is how we run our business. It has withstood the test of time and provides us confidence for a strong outlook in 2024 and beyond. With that, Emily, please open the lines for Q&A.

謝謝你，雷吉。現在大家都已經非常了解最後一張投影片了。 20多年來，無論條件如何，沒有藉口，只有結果。考慮到 2023 年的挑戰，我對團隊的努力感到非常自豪。我們簡單的投資主題就是我們如何經營我們的業務。它經受住了時間的考驗，讓我們對 2024 年及以後的強勁前景充滿信心。艾米麗，請打開問答線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays.

我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的尼克·坎帕內拉（Nick Campanella）。

Thanks for all the info today, and Sri, great work with you all these years, best of luck in the new role. So, yes, just to get started, could you maybe just help us understand the DIG uplift in kind of context of the current 6 to 8 CAGR? You have some open capacity there. The current run rates are clearly higher. Just -- what's the timeline to lock that in? And how should we kind of think about the uplift to the 6% to 8% or perhaps just adding higher visibility and extending the 6 to 8 or even longer?

感謝您今天提供的所有信息，斯里，這些年來與您合作愉快，祝您在新職位上好運。那麼，是的，首先，您能否幫助我們在目前 6 至 8 年複合成長率的背景下了解 DIG 的提升？你那裡有一些開放的能力。目前的運行率顯然更高。只是——鎖定它的時間表是什麼？我們應該如何考慮提升至 6% 至 8%，或只是增加更高的可見度並將 6% 延長至 8%，甚至更長？

Thank you, Nick. Good to hear from you. I appreciate the shout-out for Sri and your comment there and your question. Those traditional, what I'd call, outside of rate base growth. So those growth drivers outside of traditional rate base, energy efficiency, financial compensation, mix, and DIG. Those are powerful in the plan. And you asked specifically about Dearborn industrial generation. We are seeing both energy and capacity prices elevated, particularly in the out years of the plan. We have available capacity beyond 2026 out through the plan. We're layering in contracts really as we speak, which with attractive numbers and which give us confidence in our plan, particularly in the out years through DIG. Is that helpful?

謝謝你，尼克。很高興聽到你的消息。我感謝您對 Sri 的讚揚以及您的評論和問題。那些傳統的，我所說的，在利率基礎增長之外。因此，傳統費率基礎、能源效率、財務補償、組合和 DIG 以外的成長驅動因素。這些在計劃中都很強大。您特別詢問了迪爾伯恩工業發電的情況。我們看到能源和產能價格都在上漲，特別是在該計劃的最後幾年。透過計劃，我們擁有 2026 年後的可用產能。正如我們所說，我們確實正在分層簽訂合同，這些合約的數量很有吸引力，這讓我們對我們的計劃充滿信心，特別是在未來幾年透過 DIG 進行的計劃。有幫助嗎？

Yes. I appreciate that. And then on the [REP] plan, I guess if you file second half of '24, can you just help us understand regulatory process? When would that -- when would there be a decision there? Or what does that kind of look like? And then how does that kind of flow through to your CapEx plan? Would it be like this time next year, we kind of get an update on how that flows through? I'll leave it there.

是的。我很感激。然後關於 [REP] 計劃，我想如果你在 24 年下半年提交文件，你能幫助我們了解監管流程嗎？什麼時候會有決定？或者說那是什麼樣子的？那麼這種情況如何影響你的資本支出計畫呢？會像明年的這個時候一樣，我們會得到有關其流程的最新資訊嗎？我會把它留在那裡。

Well, thank you, Nick. First of all, this is not a new filing. It is a more important filing. It is a bigger filing, as you might imagine, if you're going to achieve 60% renewables by 2035 or 50% by 2030, it has to grow from a size perspective. So it takes an increased importance. It's also important to remember, it's based on energy versus the integrated resource plan, which is based on capacity. So that work is underway. It's really a spectrum.

嗯，謝謝你，尼克。首先，這不是新的申請。這是一份更重要的備案。正如您可能想像的那樣，如果您要到 2035 年實現 60% 的可再生能源使用率或到 2030 年達到 50%，那麼從規模角度來看，它必須有所增長。因此，它需要變得越來越重要。同樣重要的是要記住，它是基於能源，而不是基於容量的綜合資源計劃。這項工作正在進行中。這確實是一個頻譜。

To meet that standard, you do all PPAs. That's one bookend or do you do all ownership? I view it somewhere in the middle. But what's the strength of this energy law is there's a lot of flexibility to be able to start that path to those clean energy ambitions. We got to think about what the customer impact is. We've got to think we're still required as load-serving entity to meet resource capacity constraints in the IRP. So that's a consideration.

為了滿足該標準，您需要執行所有 PPA。那是一個書立還是您擁有所有所有權？我認為它處於中間的某個位置。但這部能源法的優點在於，它具有很大的彈性，能夠開啟實現清潔能源野心的道路。我們必須考慮對客戶的影響是什麼。我們必須認為我們仍然需要作為負載服務實體來滿足 IRP 中的資源容量限制。所以這是一個考慮因素。

We've got to look at the balance sheet. And here's a really capital-light option where we can get an [FCM] at 90%. That's a really attractive part of this energy law. So there's a lot of dynamics that have to play out in there. That work is underway right now. We will file that renewable energy plan in the second half of the year. We have until '25 to get it done, but we want to pull that forward into 2024, given the work that has to be done in these milestones that are out there. So we'll file that the commission has on staff have 10 months to get to a final order. And then that information there will certainly aid our capital plan and the upside from the FCM mechanism, but also flows into our integrated resource plan. And that integrated resource plan should become less complex because of this renewable energy plan work. Ultimately, that then flows into rate cases that as we move forward overtime on the annual frequency. So I know Rejji has some more comments on this as well. So I'll past to Rejji.

我們必須看看資產負債表。這是一個真正的輕資本選項，我們可以獲得 90% 的 [FCM]。這是能源法中非常吸引人的部分。因此，其中必須發揮很多動力。這項工作目前正在進行中。我們將在今年下半年提交再生能源計畫。我們必須在 25 年之前完成這項工作，但考慮到這些里程碑中必須完成的工作，我們希望將其推遲到 2024 年。因此，我們將歸檔該委員會的工作人員有 10 個月的時間來達成最終訂單。然後，這些資訊肯定會幫助我們的資本計畫和 FCM 機制的優勢，也會流入我們的綜合資源計畫。由於這項再生能源計劃的工作，綜合資源計劃應該變得不那麼複雜。最終，隨著我們按年度頻率向前推進，這就會進入費率案例。我知道 Rejji 對此也有更多評論。所以我會過去Rejji。

Yes, Nick. So all I would add to Garrick's good comments is as you think about that trajectory and sequencing that Garrick laid out, it's important to note that the plan that we laid out today that takes you from 2024 to 2028, does not incorporate any capital investment opportunities associated with the new legislation. And so as we file the [REP] in the second half of this year and then get feedback presumably in the second half of 2025. We won't start incorporating capital opportunities, most likely for a couple of vintages of 5-year plans. Now we have started to layer in the energy waste reduction or energy efficiency opportunities as well as modest portion of the FCM opportunities. But I think in subsequent 5-year plans, you'll start to see more FCM-related opportunities and certainly more capital opportunities. But it's going to take a couple of vintages before we have real clarity on that. Is that helpful?

是的，尼克。因此，我要對加里克的好評論補充的是，當您思考加里克制定的軌跡和順序時，重要的是要注意，我們今天制定的從2024 年到2028 年的計劃並不包含任何資本投資機會與新立法相關。因此，當我們在今年下半年提交 [REP]，然後大概在 2025 年下半年得到回饋時。我們不會開始納入資本機會，很可能是針對 5 年計畫的幾個年份。現在我們已經開始分層減少能源浪費或提高能源效率的機會以及一小部分 FCM 機會。但我認為在接下來的五年計畫中，你將開始看到更多與 FCM 相關的機會，當然還有更多的資本機會。但我們還需要幾個年份才能真正弄清楚這一點。有幫助嗎？

That is helpful. And that was a lot of information. I appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing you next week. Have a good day.

這很有幫助。這是很多資訊。我很感激。期待下週見到您。祝你有美好的一天。

The next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

Just wanted to touch base, I guess, a little bit more on the Moody's change this morning. If you could just walk us through that a bit and quantify how much equity credit that is? Just trying to get a sense for what that means.

我想只是想進一步了解一下今天早上穆迪的變化。能否簡單介紹一下並量化一下股權信貸的金額？只是想了解這代表什麼。

Jeremy, this is Rejji. So Moody's this morning, increased the equity credit that they ascribed to junior subordinated notes, which are more informally referred to as [hybrids.] It was previously a 25% equity credit. And they're essentially now at parity with S&P at 50%. So the reason why that's impactful for us is that we've issued those securities quite a bit over the last 5 to 6 years, and so it currently represents about 40% of our debt portfolio at the holdco. And so by then, increase in the equity credit ascribed to this. It really increases, I'd say, the FFO debt metrics -- FFO to debt metrics at Moody's by about 50 to 60 basis points. So fairly accretive from a credit perspective to plan.

傑里米，這是雷吉。因此，穆迪今天早上增加了他們賦予初級次級票據的股權信貸，這些票據更非正式地稱為「混合債券」。之前的股權信貸為 25%。現在它們基本上與標準普爾指數持平，均為 50%。因此，這對我們有影響的原因是，我們在過去 5 到 6 年大量發行了這些證券，因此目前它約占我們控股公司債務組合的 40%。到那時，由此帶來的股權信用就會增加。我想說，它確實使 FFO 債務指標——穆迪的 FFO 債務指標增加了約 50 至 60 個基點。從信貸角度來看，計劃相當具有增值性。

Got it. That's really helpful there. And as we approach finalizing the electric rate case, just wondering if you could provide any more incremental thoughts, I guess, on how you feel about how things are progressing there? Just any color would be appreciated.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。當我們接近敲定電價案例時，我想知道您是否可以提供更多增量想法，我猜，您對那裡的事情進展有何感受？任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

Jeremy, things are progressing nicely. I feel good about a constructive outcome. Staff had a great starting spot on what I think can be a constructive outcome and feel confident that we can get there. There's a lot of positive indicators, support for the important work on reliability. I would say there's a great alignment between staff and frankly, the commissioners and where we want to go, improve reliability in the state. That's a big part of this electric rate case. And also positive indicators on the mechanisms that we have talked about in the past, this infrastructure recovery mechanism.

傑里米，事情進展順利。我對建設性成果感到滿意。工作人員有一個很好的起點，我認為這可能是個建設性的成果，並且對我們能夠實現這一目標充滿信心。有很多積極的指標，支持可靠性方面的重要工作。我想說，工作人員之間有很好的一致性，坦白說，委員和我們想要去的地方，提高州的可靠性。這是這個電價案例的一個重要部分。還有我們過去討論過的機制的積極指標，即基礎設施恢復機制。

We think that's really important from a go-forward reliability perspective, it's also lines up with what your scripts has shared about ring-fencing and providing opportunity to capital to see the insight of where those investments are and how they make a difference. And then finally, our undergrounding pilot. That has seen support as well. That's an important first step in this resiliency play and our larger ambitions that are evident in our reliability roadmap. And so again, I feel really good about where the case is headed and we expect a final order on or before March 1.

我們認為，從未來可靠性的角度來看，這非常重要，它也與您的腳本所分享的有關圍欄的內容相一致，並為資本提供機會來了解這些投資的位置以及它們如何產生影響。最後是我們的地下飛行員。這也得到了支持。這是彈性工作中重要的第一步，也是我們更大的雄心壯志，這在我們的可靠性路線圖中顯而易見。再說一次，我對案件的進展感到非常滿意，我們預計最終訂單會在 3 月 1 日或之前發出。

Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根漢合夥人公司的 Shar Pourreza。

Just a real quick cleanup question on the CapEx and rate base. Is part of the rate base CAGR increase to that firm 7.5% and the higher CapEx run rate. Is that driven by some of the spending and solar delays in '23, so slightly off maybe a lower base and timing differences? Or is it driven by new CapEx, the tailing of the plan or maybe a combination of both especially since you guys don't really include a lot of CapEx until we get through the approval process, right?

只是一個關於資本支出和費率基礎的真正快速清理問題。是該公司複合年增長率提高至 7.5% 和更高資本支出運行率的一部分。這是由於 23 年的一些支出和太陽能延遲造成的，所以可能是基數較低和時間差異略有偏差？或者它是由新的資本支出、計劃的拖尾或兩者的結合驅動的，特別是因為在我們通過批准流程之前你們並沒有真正包括大量的資本支出，對吧？

Yes. Sure. This is Rejji. I appreciate the question. I would say it's largely due to the latter, and that's incremental CapEx. So remember, we have the electric reliability road map that we provided -- that we filed with the commission in late September of last year. And so that had $3 billion of incremental CapEx opportunity versus the prior vintage. We haven't incorporated all of that. But about half as per Garrick's prepared remarks, so call it roughly a good portion of that $1.5 billion step-up in our new plan versus our old plan. We also do have increased renewable investments. But I wouldn't say that that's sort of the deferrals that are coming into 2024 from 2023, yes, there's a little bit of that, but it's largely additional IRP execution on the renewables side as well as our voluntary green pricing program.

是的。當然。這是雷吉。我很欣賞這個問題。我想說這主要是由於後者，即增量資本支出。所以請記住，我們有我們提供的電力可靠性路線圖——我們在去年九月底向委員會提交了該路線圖。因此，與上一個年份相比，這有 30 億美元的增量資本支出機會。我們還沒有整合所有這些。但根據加里克準備好的講話，大約有一半，所以可以稱之為我們新計劃相對於舊計劃增加的 15 億美元的很大一部分。我們也確實增加了再生能源投資。但我不會說這就是從 2023 年到 2024 年的推遲，是的，有一點，但這主要是可再生能源方面額外的 IRP 執行以及我們的自願綠色定價計劃。

So I'd say the vast majority of that uplift from our 5-year CapEx plan. The current one versus the prior is driven by electric reliability-related investments. And then you got a portion attributable to clean energy investments, largely renewables.

所以我想說，絕大多數的成長來自我們的五年資本支出計畫。目前的投資與先前的投資相比是由電力可靠性相關投資所驅動的。然後你得到一部分歸因於清潔能源投資，主要是再生能源。

Let me just reinforce that and the one I'd like to think about add on to good -- Rejji's good comments there is that clean energy piece and the supply, it's what's approved in our '22 IRP. And the upside will be to the tail end because we haven't built in any of those new energy laws, as Rejji stated in some earlier comments. So has that renewable energy plan is filed and eventually approved, then you'll see that'll likely hit the tail, but even beyond the 5 years. You can see a nice path of 10 years of investment opportunity as a result of this energy law.

讓我強調這一點，我想考慮的是，Rejji 的良好評論是清潔能源部分和供應，這是我們 '22 IRP 中批准的內容。正如 Rejji 在之前的一些評論中所說，好處將是在尾部，因為我們還沒有製定任何新能源法。因此，如果再生能源計劃已提交並最終獲得批准，那麼您會發現它很可能會達到尾部，但甚至超過 5 年。由於這部能源法，你可以看到 10 年的投資機會。

Got it. Okay. Yes, it just sounds like it's more incremental versus shifting from '23 to '24, okay. And then just on the balance sheet, the $350 million in equity after '25, I guess, does that contemplate sort of an increases beyond the current CapEx plan as you look to ramp up reliability in renewable spending?

知道了。好的。是的，聽起來與從 23 歲到 24 歲的轉變相比，它更具漸進性，好吧。然後就在資產負債表上，我猜想，25 年後的 3.5 億美元股本是否會超出當前資本支出計劃，因為您希望提高可再生能源支出的可靠性？

Shar, this just incorporates the current 5-year plan of $17 billion of utility CapEx and it's enough work to prepare these 5-year plans. So we're not thinking about years 6 through 10 just yet. So I would say that it's, again, just the $17 billion utility CapEx plan of the funding associated therewith. But as per my prepared remarks, we're quite pleased that even with that upper pressure on equity needs as a result of that growing capital plan, we didn't have to change the annual amount.

Shar，這只是包含了目前 170 億美元公用事業資本支出的 5 年計劃，準備這些 5 年計劃的工作量已經足夠了。所以我們現在還沒有考慮第六年到第十年。所以我想說，這只是與之相關的 170 億美元公用事業資本支出計劃的融資。但根據我準備好的發言，我們非常高興的是，即使資本計畫不斷增長導致股本需求面臨較高壓力，我們也不必改變年度金額。

So we're still up to 350 as we were in our prior plan and it has a lot to do with just good cash flow generation and the plan to monetize tax credits as a result of the IRA.

因此，我們仍然像之前的計劃一樣達到 350，這與良好的現金流生成和 IRA 帶來的稅收抵免貨幣化計劃有很大關係。

Got it. And then just last one is just on the Palisades revival seems to be moving forward with the DOE loans, does that change sort of the calculus maybe from a resource planning perspective, would you be open to purchasing the power under an FCM construct? Or does it still seem too expensive for you?

知道了。最後一個是關於 Palisades 復興似乎正在與能源部貸款一起推進，這是否會改變某種計算，也許從資源規劃的角度來看，您是否願意在 FCM 結構下購買電力？或者它對你來說仍然太貴了？

We're watching the activity on Palisades, but I just want to remind everybody on the call here we're not involved in Palisades and from a PPA perspective, it's spoken for, both with 2 co-ops. And so we're not engaged at all within that process. Now we hope from an implication perspective, we think it's great for Michigan, and we wish them well and success in getting the plant up and operational.

我們正在關注 Palisades 的活動，但我只是想提醒大家，我們不參與 Palisades，從 PPA 的角度來看，它是有 2 個合作公寓的。所以我們根本沒有參與這個過程。現在，我們希望從暗示的角度來看，我們認為這對密西根州來說很好，我們祝他們一切順利，並成功讓工廠建成並投入運作。

Got it. So no change in your resource planning I guess the point was?

知道了。所以我想重點是你的資源規劃沒有改變？

No change in the resource planning. And I would just remind everybody, even with that potential out there, we see great opportunities in energy and capacity that are evident at Dearborn Industrial generation.

資源規劃沒有改變。我只想提醒大家，即使存在這種潛力，我們也看到了迪爾伯恩工業世代在能源和產能方面的巨大機會。

The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的大衛‧阿卡羅。

Congratulations to both Sri and Jason. Really great working with both of you. I was curious if you could give your latest thoughts on load growth expectations here. And whether you're seeing any activity -- increased activity in manufacturing or data center growth to kind of hit the radar?

祝賀斯里和傑森。與你們倆一起工作真的很棒。我很好奇您是否可以在這裡給出關於負載成長預期的最新想法。您是否看到任何活動—製造業活動的增加或資料中心的成長引起了人們的注意？

Let me start, and then I'll pass it over to Rejji too. There's a lot of great things going on in Michigan from an economic development perspective. Onshore and friend-shoring, benefits of the Chips Act, IRA, we're seeing growth in polysilicon. We're seeing growth in semiconductors. We're seeing growth in agricultural processing, battery manufacturing and parts that go into vehicles and the like. So just a lot of manufacturing growth, which I love frankly, it creates jobs. It has a supply chain that goes with it. And frankly, there's a lot of margin in those areas. To your point, we're also seeing some data center growth. That's part of the plan. But we get really excited with the manufacturing side just because of the other additional benefits that are associated with that.

讓我開始吧，然後我也會把它交給 Rejji。從經濟發展的角度來看，密西根州正在發生很多偉大的事情。在岸和友邦、《晶片法案》、愛爾蘭共和軍的好處下，我們看到多晶矽的成長。我們看到半導體的成長。我們看到農產品加工、電池製造以及汽車零件等領域的成長。因此，坦白說，我很喜歡製造業的大量成長，它創造了就業機會。它有一個與之相配套的供應鏈。坦白說，這些領域有很大的利潤空間。就您而言，我們也看到了一些資料中心的成長。這是計劃的一部分。但我們對製造方面感到非常興奮，因為與之相關的其他額外好處。

So that's kind of a big-level picture and that pipeline continues. We've got a nice pipeline of growth into the year. And I want to remind everybody to plan conservatively. We're not counting any of that upward supply and sales type opportunities until we see the meter spend. And so that's just our conservative approach. But let me hand it over to Rejji for some additional comments.

這是一個宏觀的圖景，並且該管道仍在繼續。今年我們的成長勢頭良好。我想提醒大家保守計畫。在我們看到電錶支出之前，我們不會計算任何向上供應和銷售類型的機會。所以這只是我們保守的做法。但讓我把它交給 Rejji 徵求一些補充意見。

David, I think Garrick summarized it pretty well. And the big takeaway here is we plan conservatively. But what I'm pleased to represent, just to add some numbers to Garrick's good comments is that when you think about the last several planning cycles we've had, we've suggested that we've had sort of flat to stable or slightly declining load growth. And it's always important to remember that our load growth math includes our energy efficiency actions where we're basically reducing load year-over-year by 2%. And so we -- if you take that into account, we've been up about 2% or thereabouts on a gross basis for many years. But this current plan on a 5-year basis offers about a 1% swing from where we were just in our last 5-year plan.

大衛，我認為加里克總結得很好。這裡最大的收穫是我們計劃保守。但我很高興地表示，只是為了在加里克的良好評論中添加一些數字，當你考慮我們過去的幾個規劃週期時，我們建議我們已經持平到穩定或略有下降負荷增長下降。重要的是要記住，我們的負載成長數學包括我們的能源效率行動，我們基本上將負載逐年減少 2%。因此，如果你考慮到這一點，多年來我們的毛利率一直在增長約 2% 左右。但目前的 5 年計劃與我們上一個 5 年計劃相比有 1% 左右的波動。

And so we're assuming a little over 0.5% of growth over this 5-year plan, again, inclusive of our energy efficiency efforts. And so even though Garrick highlighted that we have a pretty robust and diverse pipeline of opportunities, all we have embedded in our current 5-year plan of the 2 large projects that were announced over the last year or so with (inaudible). And so that's really all we have incorporated in our plan. And I'll tell you, candidly, we'll be disappointed if that's all we're talking about in the next 2 to 3 years, given again, the breadth and depth of our pipeline today. So good opportunities going forward on the load front. We're already seeing that in the numbers, but I think there's more opportunity going forward.

因此，我們再次假設這個 5 年計畫的成長率略高於 0.5%，其中包括我們在能源效率方面的努力。因此，儘管加里克強調我們擁有相當強大且多樣化的機會管道，但我們已經將所有內容都納入了我們當前的2 個大型項目的五年計劃中，這兩個項目是在過去一年左右宣布的（聽不清楚）。這就是我們在計劃中納入的全部內容。我坦白告訴你，如果這就是我們在未來 2 到 3 年內談論的全部內容，再次考慮到我們今天管道的廣度和深度，我們會感到失望。在負載方面，這是一個很好的機會。我們已經在數字中看到了這一點，但我認為未來還有更多機會。

Got it. Excellent. That's helpful. And then back on the topic of rate cases. I was just wondering your latest thoughts on the ability to settle rate cases, not for the electric one, obviously, but maybe your gas rate case and then more broadly going forward in the state for future rate case activity.

知道了。出色的。這很有幫助。然後回到利率案件的話題。我只是想知道您對解決費率案件能力的最新想法，顯然不是針對電力案件，但也許是您的天然氣費率案件，然後更廣泛地在該州進行未來費率案件活動。

Sure. We have a historic practice. We're coming off of 4 or 5 of lost track now settlements. And so that's still part of our makeup. We're still going to look at how to -- when the case is underway, how do we best reach the right conclusion for our customers and for our investors. And so we look at those opportunities. I've been on these calls before and said, hey, look for any opportunity for a settlement when the conditions are right. But we're also comfortable going with the flow because we're that confident in our ability to get a constructive outcome here in Michigan. And so this gas case that we filed in December really straightforward. I'm hopeful that we can get and reach a settlement. But again, if it doesn't, that's okay, too. We can get to a constructive outcome here in Michigan.

當然。我們有一個歷史性的做法。我們現在正從四、五個失落的定居點中走出來。所以這仍然是我們化妝的一部分。我們仍將研究如何——當案件進行時，我們如何最好地為我們的客戶和投資者得出正確的結論。所以我們關注這些機會。我以前曾在這些電話中說過，嘿，在條件合適時尋找任何和解的機會。但我們也很樂意隨波逐流，因為我們對在密西根州取得建設性成果的能力充滿信心。因此，我們在 12 月提交的這個天然氣案件非常簡單。我希望我們能夠達成和解。但話又說回來，如果沒有，也沒關係。我們可以在密西根州取得建設性成果。

Our next question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁克爾·沙利文。

Congrats, Sri. Go blue. Yes, I know this got asked like a couple of different ways, Rejji, just on the equity needs, just maybe if you could just frame how to think about where they could go as CapEx goes higher as we start to roll forward with the REP refresh, like taking into context the ability to use transferability, discussion you got from Moody's like CapEx goes up by x, how much could that potentially increase equity?

恭喜，斯里。變藍。是的，我知道有人以幾種不同的方式問這個問題，Rejji，只是關於股權需求，也許您可以框架一下如何思考隨著我們開始推進 REP 而資本支出上升，他們可以走向何方刷新一下，例如考慮到使用可轉讓性的能力，你從穆迪那裡得到的討論，例如資本支出增加了x，這可能會增加多少股本？

Yes, Michael, I appreciate the question. I would say, clearly, we've made the working assumptions in this current 5-year plan quite clear up to $350 million starting in 2025 through the duration that's playing out to 2028. As it pertains to future 5-year plans, mathematically, I would say yes, if your capital plan increases, and I think based on what we've talked about with respect to the prospects of the new energy law, we will see upward pressure on our capital plan going forward.

是的，邁克爾，我很欣賞這個問題。我想說，顯然，我們已經在目前的5 年計畫中做出了相當明確的工作假設，從2025 年開始到2028 年，投資額將達到3.5 億美元。由於它與未來的5 年計畫有關，從數學上講，我想說的是，如果你的資本計劃增加，我認為根據我們所討論的新能源法的前景，我們將看到我們的資本計劃未來面臨上行壓力。

Remember, there are sources of offsetting pressure given the strength of the regulatory construct in Michigan. There's very strong operating cash flow generation, which obviously sources -- obviously provides a source of internal equity. And then we've got now sources of downward pressure with the ability to monetize tax credits. The amount we have embedded in our plan is just over $0.5 billion. And I expect that to accrete over time as we take on new renewable projects. And then obviously, the good news from Moody's this morning offers a little bit more headroom on the Moody's side.

請記住，鑑於密西根州監管結構的強度，存在抵消壓力的來源。營運現金流的產生非常強勁，這顯然是內部股權的來源。然後，我們現在有了將稅收抵免貨幣化的下行壓力的來源。我們在計劃中嵌入的金額剛剛超過 5 億美元。我預計，隨著我們開展新的再生能源項目，這種情況會隨著時間的推移而增加。顯然，穆迪今天早上的好消息為穆迪方面提供了更多的空間。

Now I would not suggest at the moment that we're prepared to give sort of new equity needs on a hypothetical basis, but we'll recalibrate every year. But I think, again, the strong sources of downward pressure on equity needs will be operating cash flow generation, the ability to monetize credits and obviously Moody's decision today is helpful. And obviously, we plan conservatively. So that's the other aspect of it as well. And obviously, with the great rate contract in addition to the cash flow generation, we have a solid level of retained earnings, particularly with a very disciplined dividend policy that Garrick highlighted in his prepared remarks. So that's the other aspect I'd add as well.

現在我不建議我們準備在假設的基礎上提供某種新的股權需求，但我們每年都會重新調整。但我再次認為，股票需求下行壓力的強大來源將是營運現金流的產生、信貸貨幣化的能力，顯然穆迪今天的決定是有幫助的。顯然，我們的計劃是保守的。這也是它的另一方面。顯然，除了現金流的產生之外，憑藉出色的利率合同，我們擁有穩定的留存收益水平，特別是加里克在他準備好的講話中強調的非常嚴格的股息政策。這也是我要補充的另一個面向。

Okay. Super helpful. And then just wanted to check in the latest on the PSC looking at performance-based rates in Michigan and where that stands and where you potentially see that going.

好的。超有幫助。然後只是想查看 PSC 的最新情況，以了解密西根州基於績效的費率以及情況以及您可能看到的情況。

The process is well underway, Michael, and it's improving. We've seen it move from a handful of metrics down to 4 metrics that are very benchmarkable across the industry. Our next set of comments are due by February 2. And what we're leaning into in those comments is a better connection between these outcomes and reliability and more certainty on capital recovery. If you look at best practices for performance-based rate-making across the country, frankly, across the globe, there's a greater tie between here's the outcome and here's the certainty on recovery. So we're wanting to make sure in our comments that, that is true here in Michigan. And so that's the work that's underway. So we'll continue to follow the process. And I'm sure here, just given the constructive nature of Michigan, we can get to place a good landing spot for [PBR.]

邁克爾，這個過程正在順利進行，並且正在改進。我們已經看到它從少數幾個指標減少到 4 個在整個行業中非常具有基準的指標。我們的下一組評論將於 2 月 2 日截止。我們在這些評論中傾向於將這些結果與資本回收的可靠性和確定性更好地聯繫起來。如果你看看全國範圍內基於績效的利率制定的最佳實踐，坦白說，在全球範圍內，結果與復甦的確定性之間存在著更大的聯繫。因此，我們希望在評論中確保密西根州確實如此。這就是正在進行的工作。因此我們將繼續追蹤該流程。我確信，鑑於密西根州的建設性，我們可以為 [PBR] 找到一個良好的著陸點。

And any sense of just timing on when it could all kind of come to a conclusion?

以及什麼時候才能下結論？

So we're still in process right now. Like I said, comments are due here February 2. Ideally here, there's some milestones around May time frame as well, but we haven't got a clear picture from an ending perspective -- appropriately plays out -- I'm sorry, just likely plays out in the next electric rate case well beyond this one.

所以我們現在仍在進行中。就像我說的，評論截止日期是2 月2 日。理想情況下，5 月的時間範圍內也有一些里程碑，但我們還沒有從結局的角度得到清晰的畫面——適當地發揮——我很抱歉，只是下一次電價案件的發生可能會遠遠超出這一次。

The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Thanks again for the time. I appreciate it very much. Just following up maybe zeroing back to where we've been talking about the balance sheet here for a little bit. I just want to clarify what's in the updated CFO, the cash flow number that you projected. I presume that doesn't include any kind of expectations for uplift on DIG, among other factors.

再次感謝您抽出時間。我非常感激。只是跟進也許會回到我們在這裡討論資產負債表的地方。我只是想澄清一下更新後的財務長的內容，即您預測的現金流量數字。我認為這不包括對 DIG 提升的任何預期以及其他因素。

Also maybe we could talk at the same time about how much additional latitude you're getting from Moody's, given the tweak with the juniors there? And then ultimately, on the dividend, it seems like dividend growth may be slowing a little bit. Should that be the new norm here just given maybe trying to target a lower payout given the accelerated growth? Sorry, I'm starting all at the same time here if you want to address.

另外，也許我們可以同時討論一下，考慮到那裡的初級人員的調整，您從穆迪獲得了多少額外的自由度？最後，在股息方面，股息成長似乎可能會略有放緩。鑑於加速成長，這是否應該成為這裡的新常態？考慮到可能試圖以較低的支出為目標？抱歉，如果您想發表講話，我將同時開始。

Julien, I appreciate the question. That's quite a bit to unpack there. So let me start with DIG and the OCF implications. And so everything that we've highlighted in our 5-year plan, to think about the rate base growth up to 7.5%. We also talked about additional opportunities attributable to energy efficiency. These are the non-rate base growth drivers of the utility, FCM. And then we talked about nonutility opportunities with DIG recontracting. All of that is based on our -- all of that is incorporated into our earnings as well as our cash flow generation. And so we have a page in the appendix that shows about a little over $13 billion in aggregate cash flow generation over the course of this 5-year plan, and that incorporates some recontracting that we've seen at DIG on both the energy and capacity side, but it does not take into account that open margin that we have on Slide 21 in the appendix and the potential opportunities if you see a higher capacity price over time.

朱利安，我很欣賞這個問題。那裡需要解壓的東西相當多。讓我從 DIG 和 OCF 的影響開始。因此，我們在 5 年計畫中強調的一切，都要考慮高達 7.5% 的利率基礎成長率。我們也討論了能源效率帶來的額外機會。這些是公用事業公司 FCM 的非利率基礎成長驅動力。然後我們討論了 DIG 重新承包的非公用事業機會。所有這一切都基於我們的——所有這些都納入我們的收入以及我們的現金流生成。因此，我們在附錄中有一頁顯示了在這個 5 年計劃期間產生的總現金流量大約超過 130 億美元，其中包括我們在 DIG 看到的關於能源和產能的一些重新承包方面，但它沒有考慮我們在附錄投影片21 上的未平倉保證金，以及如果您看到隨著時間的推移容量價格更高時的潛在機會。

And so there is some upside, both from an earnings and cash flow perspective. So not all of that is baked into the cash flow. So there's additional opportunity there.

因此，從獲利和現金流的角度來看，都有一些好處。因此，並非所有這些都納入現金流。所以那裡還有額外的機會。

Just transitioning over to Moody's. I'll note that the decision to increase the equity credit from 25% to 50% for junior subordinated notes, that's worth about 50 to 60 basis points of FFO to debt accretion. And then with respect to dividend policy, we've really been very consistent in dividend policy since we sold EnerBank and started to accelerate the earnings growth of the business. And really the idea has been to trend down to a low 60s percent payout ratio, as Garrick highlighted in his prepared remarks, and so what that equates to is really decoupled growth between our DPS growth or dividend per share growth and our earnings per share growth.

剛剛過渡到穆迪。我要指出的是，將初級次級票據的股權信貸從 25% 增加到 50% 的決定，相當於 FFO 債務增加約 50 到 60 個基點。然後就股息政策而言，自從我們出售 EnerBank 並開始加速業務獲利成長以來，我們的股息保單確實非常一致。事實上，正如加里克在他準備好的演講中所強調的那樣，我們的想法一直是下降到60% 的低派息率，因此這相當於我們的DPS 增長或每股股息增長與每股收益增長之間真正脫鉤的成長。

We've said 6% to 8% toward the high end for earnings per share. We'll probably be closer to the low end as the $0.11 increase today implies. And that will be the plan going forward because we do believe that that's a very efficient use of capital to have the dividend policy in that level so that we can efficiently fund the growth of the business. And so really that is how we're thinking about it going forward. Was that helpful?

我們說過每股盈餘的上限為 6% 至 8%。正如今天 0.11 美元的上漲所暗示的那樣，我們可能會更接近低端。這將是未來的計劃，因為我們確實相信，將股息政策保持在這一水平是一種非常有效的資本利用，以便我們能夠有效地為業務成長提供資金。事實上，這就是我們對未來的思考。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yes, absolutely. And maybe just to tie that together here. I mean, if you look at your FFO metrics altogether, you raised the rate base growth up to 7.5% now through the 5-year period. I get it's not exactly apples-to-apples across the years, but it doesn't seem like there's incremental equity versus the original plan per se. So how do you think about your metrics through this outlook? Are you actually intact net-net-net, given the various factors we just elaborated on? Or are you seeing a slight uptick prior reflecting some of these other pieces, if you will. Just how do you think about where you land?

是的，一點沒錯。也許只是為了將它們連結在一起。我的意思是，如果您全面查看 FFO 指標，您會發現在 5 年期間，您將利率基礎成長率提高至 7.5%。我知道多年來的情況並不完全一樣，但與最初的計劃本身相比，似乎並沒有增加股權。那麼，您如何透過這種展望來看待您的指標呢？考慮到我們剛才闡述的各種因素，你真的完好無損嗎？或者，如果您願意的話，您是否會在反映其他一些作品之前看到輕微的上升。您如何看待著陸地點？

Yes. So we feel very good about the credit metrics staying in that mid-teens area, which we have targeted for some time now to preserve the solid investment grade credit metrics -- I mean, credit ratings, excuse me, we've had for many years now, and that's with a long-standing dialogue with the rating agencies. The OCF generation, coupled with the equity needs up to 350 as well as the monetization of tax credits. And again, just a very disciplined dividend policy. All of that allows us to maintain our credit metrics in that mid-teens area. And again, yes, we've increased the utility CapEx plan. We've held on to the equity needs and those supporting factors allow us to stay on that level. So that -- and certainly, there may be opportunity longer term, but we feel very good about the metrics where they are today and don't intend to deviate from our current credit ratings. I don't think that's the implication of your question, but I just wanted to say that for the avoidance of doubt.

是的。因此，我們對信用指標保持在十幾歲左右的區域感到非常滿意，我們已經將這一目標定為一段時間，以保持可靠的投資級信用指標——我的意思是，信用評級，對不起，我們已經有很多年了多年來，這是與評級機構進行的長期對話。 OCF 生成，加上高達 350 的股權需求以及稅收抵免的貨幣化。再說一遍，這是非常嚴格的股利政策。所有這些使我們能夠將信用指標維持在十幾歲左右。是的，我們再次增加了公用事業資本支出計劃。我們一直保持著股權需求，這些支持因素使我們能夠保持在這個水平。因此，當然，從長遠來看可能存在機會，但我們對目前的指標感覺非常好，並且不打算偏離我們當前的信用評級。我不認為這就是你問題的含義，但我只是想這麼說，以避免產生疑問。

Awesome. Excellent. And then just through the same outlook here, I mean just given all the purpose on legislation, can you just clarify what is the sort of expected bill impact or commitment here rather, given all to come on what that means for customers as best you guys are going to try to target this?

驚人的。出色的。然後，透過同樣的觀點，我的意思是，考慮到立法的所有目的，您能否澄清一下預期的法案影響或承諾是什麼，考慮到這對客戶意味著什麼，你們是最好的人會嘗試以此為目標嗎？

Yes, Julien, to be clear, this is with respect to the new energy legislation.

是的，朱利安，要明確的是，這是關於新能源立法的。

Yes. As you think about what is on the come? I mean, is there any kind of commitment you guys are making on trying to level that out for customers in any specific pace?

是的。當你想到接下來會發生什麼事？我的意思是，你們是否做出了任何承諾，試圖以任何特定的速度為客戶提供平衡？

Yes. Needless to say, as we've always talked about, when we prepare not just this 5-year plan or prior plans, but future plan, the key governors will be affordability, balance sheet and can we get the work done. And as it pertains to new energy legislation, yes, it does create additional opportunities, whether that's on the capital investment side or on contracts with the financial compensation mechanism, but trust, we will not turn a blind eye to affordability. And what makes us really excited about the opportunity going forward is when we think about our current energy mix and how we're sourcing energy, we have about $1.5 billion that we spend each year on a combination of PPAs as well as open market repurchases that we're paying a pretty high levelized cost of energy on a weighted average basis.

是的。不用說，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，當我們不僅準備這個五年計劃或之前的計劃，而且準備未來的計劃時，關鍵的因素將是負擔能力、資產負債表以及我們能否完成工作。由於它涉及新能源立法，是的，它確實創造了額外的機會，無論是在資本投資方面還是在具有經濟補償機制的合約方面，但相信，我們不會對負擔能力視而不見。讓我們對未來的機會真正感到興奮的是，當我們考慮當前的能源結構以及我們如何採購能源時，我們每年大約花費 15 億美元用於購電協議以及公開市場回購的組合，按加權平均計算，我們支付的能源成本相當高。

And so with the new energy law, going into effect and the opportunities associated therewith. We think there's a lot of headroom to get economics on energy going forward without increasing customer bills. Now there's a lot more process left, as Garrick noted, but we do think there's a lot of headroom already in bills for us to potentially deliver on that triple bottom line, where there's nice economic opportunity for investors, but again, not doing that to the detriment of customers.

新能源法的生效以及與之相關的機會也是如此。我們認為，在不增加客戶帳單的情況下，能源經濟還有很大的發展空間。正如加里克指出的那樣，現在還有很多流程要做，但我們確實認為帳單上已經有很大的空間，可以讓我們實現三重底線，這對投資者來說有很好的經濟機會，但同樣，這樣做不是為了損害了顧客的利益。

The next question comes from Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的安德魯·韋塞爾。

Two questions just to elaborate on your earlier comments. First, '23 CapEx fell short of your target, $3.3 billion versus $3.7 billion planned. Can you just talk about what happened there? I think some of that might have been the solar delays. And then what happened to that $400 million? It sounds like that was not part of the $1.5 billion increase. So can you just help explain what happened there?

有兩個問題只是為了詳細說明您先前的評論。首先，'23 資本支出未達到您的目標（33 億美元），而計劃為 37 億美元。你能簡單談談那裡發生的事情嗎？我認為其中一些可能是太陽延遲造成的。那麼這 4 億美元去了哪裡？聽起來這並不屬於 15 億美元成長的一部分。那麼你能幫忙解釋一下那裡發生了什麼事嗎？

It's expected in the context of a year that you're going to have projects. Andrew, of 25 years in this business and I've -- no project goes exactly as you plan and sometimes they shift and move. And particularly with the solar piece, as Rejji mentioned in his prepared remarks, it's really not the supply chain at this point. We've got a lock-in on panels and the like. It is really about local entities and siting and permitting. Now we work through that. It just means we might move to a different community or there might be different setbacks that we have to work through. All of that is doable, but it does create some shifts in the context of the year. But the key piece is it's not moving. We still have to deliver on 2030, 50% renewables. We have to be at 60% by 2035. That doesn't change. And so if it's not in this year, it just moves to a different year, and we'll continue that project. So there's a bit of shifting that ends up moving on the capital plan. So hopefully, that helps. Hold on, Rejji's got to comment as well.

預計一年內你將有專案。安德魯（Andrew）在這個行業工作了 25 年，我沒有一個專案完全按照你的計劃進行，有時它們會改變。尤其是太陽能零件，正如 Rejji 在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，目前它實際上不是供應鏈。我們對面板等進行了鎖定。這實際上與當地實體、選址和許可有關。現在我們正在解決這個問題。這只是意味著我們可能會搬到不同的社區，或者我們可能會遇到不同的挫折。所有這些都是可行的，但它確實在今年的背景下造成了一些轉變。但關鍵是它不動。我們仍必須在 2030 年實現 50% 再生能源的目標。到 2035 年我們必須達到 60%。這一點不會改變。因此，如果不是在今年，它將轉移到另一年，我們將繼續該專案。因此，最終資本計劃發生了一些變化。希望這會有所幫助。等一下，Rejji 也必須發表評論。

Yes. And Andrew, what I would add, I think you're sort of reflecting on Shar's question and my response to that. To be clear, we do have some of that spend that we did not achieve in 2023. Some of that is certainly pushed into this new 5-year plan. It's just the vast majority of the increase in this 5-year plan versus the priors driven by reliability-related investments. So there's certainly is a portion of those deferrals being pushed into '24 and beyond. But again, the biggest driver of this new 5-year plan is reliability.

是的。安德魯，我要補充的是，我認為你在某種程度上反思了莎爾的問題和我對此的回應。需要明確的是，我們確實有一些支出在 2023 年沒有實現。其中一些支出肯定會被納入這個新的 5 年計畫中。與先前的五年計畫相比，這只是由可靠性相關投資驅動的絕大多數成長。因此，肯定有一部分延期被推遲到 24 年及以後。但同樣，這個新的五年計畫的最大驅動力是可靠性。

Okay. That makes a lot of sense. And a quick follow-up on that. In the Page 24, you give spending by year. The number for 2028 at $3.1 billion is actually the lowest of the next 5 years. Directionally, I would have expected the opposite. I personally assume you'll be increasing that as you go through these regulatory processes. But maybe you can just talk about why the trend is dipping down rather than going up every year.

好的。這很有意義。並對此進行快速跟進。在第 24 頁中，您按年份給出支出。 2028 年的數字為 31 億美元，實際上是未來 5 年的最低數字。從方向上看，我的預期恰恰相反。我個人認為，當您完成這些監管流程時，您會增加這一點。但也許你可以只談談為什麼趨勢每年都在下降而不是上升。

Andrew, this is Rejji. I'll take that. Yes. So what you're seeing here in that '24, '25 time frame is just we do anticipate a pretty big increase in reliability-related investments. And so that's what's driving a lot of that. Obviously, that's going to be subject to regulatory outcomes. And so we'll toggle the plan as needed. And I think Garrick's earlier point is well taken that. These plans, you see capital projects come in and out, some get pushed in, some get pushed out. And so we do anticipate that smoothing out over time. And so the composition over this 5-year time frame may change, but we feel very good about the quantum overall of $17 billion. And so you may see some of that lumpiness go in and out -- or sorry, smooth out over time.

安德魯，這是雷吉。我會接受的。是的。因此，您在 24、25 年時間範圍內看到的只是我們確實預期與可靠性相關的投資將大幅增加。這就是推動這一切的原因。顯然，這將受到監管結果的影響。因此我們將根據需要切換計劃。我認為加里克之前的觀點得到了很好的理解。在這些計畫中，你會看到資本項目進進出出，有些被推進，有些被推出。因此，我們確實預期這種情況會隨著時間的推移而趨於平滑。因此，這 5 年時間範圍內的組成可能會發生變化，但我們對 170 億美元的整體規模感到非常滿意。所以你可能會看到一些塊狀的東西進進出出——或者抱歉，隨著時間的推移，這些東西會變得平滑。

Okay. And congrats again to and Sri and Jason. Sri you're going to have your hands full. And Jason, you've got very big shoes to fill, so best of luck to both of you.

好的。再次恭喜 Sri 和 Jason。斯里，你會忙得不可開交。傑森，你有很多事情要做，所以祝你們倆好運。

The next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Just Rejji, can you quantify for us of that $13 billion in operating cash flow, how much of that is tax credits monetization?

Rejji，您能否為我們量化這 130 億美元的營運現金流，其中有多少是稅收抵免貨幣化？

Durgesh, yes, happy to offer that color. It's about $0.5 billion of tax credit monetization that's incorporated, a little over $0.5 billion. And that really drives a good portion of the vintage-over-vintage difference. In the prior vintage, I think we were saying, call it, almost $12.5 billion of aggregate cash flow, operating cash flow generation, and this one kind of 13 and change. So a good portion of it is driven by the tax credit monetization, which again is over $0.5 billion.

Durgesh，是的，很高興提供這種顏色。納入的稅收抵免貨幣化金額約為 5 億美元，略高於 5 億美元。這確實在很大程度上推動了年份與年份之間的差異。在上一個年份，我認為我們說的是，近 125 億美元的總現金流、營運現金流生成，以及這種 13 和變化。因此，其中很大一部分是由稅收抵免貨幣化推動的，同樣超過 5 億美元。

So that's like over the 5-year period, so $100 million a year, roughly speaking.

粗略地說，這就像在 5 年期間，每年 1 億美元。

I wouldn't say it's as linear as that or as flat as that. I would say it actually it's going to be a little lower in the front end, and then it's going to over time.

我不會說它是那麼線性或那麼平坦。我想說的是，實際上它的前端會稍微低一些，然後隨著時間的推移它會降低。

Understood. I appreciate that. And then a quick follow-up, any update on the storm review process? What's going on there? I know we're expecting a report out, I think, in September this year. Just anything you could share there?

明白了。我很感激。然後快速跟進，風暴審查流程有什麼更新嗎？那裡發生了什麼事？我知道我們預計今年 9 月會發布一份報告。你可以在那裡分享什麼嗎？

As I've shared in previous calls, Durgesh, we're working on improving reliability. You can see that in the capital investment plan. You can see that in the reliability road map. We're focused on it, the commission's focus on it. The audit is underway, good process on it. And I look forward to the results and would anticipate we're going to incorporate in the future rate cases. From a process perspective, it still looks like we're on track for September time frame.

正如我在之前的電話會議中所分享的，Durgesh，我們正在努力提高可靠性。您可以在資本投資計劃中看到這一點。您可以在可靠性路線圖中看到這一點。我們關注它，委員會也關注它。審核正在進行中，進展順利。我期待結果，並預計我們將納入未來的費率案例。從流程的角度來看，我們仍有望在 9 月的時間範圍內實現目標。

Your next question comes from Travis Miller with Morningstar.

您的下一個問題來自晨星公司的崔維斯米勒。

Again, echo congrats to Sri and Jason, really appreciate all the help over the years, been great. A quick question on Slide 12. The $0.16 of the cost savings, how much of that is just the reversal of higher costs? And how much is incremental cost savings you're expecting this year?

再次恭喜 Sri 和 Jason，非常感謝這些年來的所有幫助，非常棒。關於投影片 12 的一個簡單問題。節省的 0.16 美元成本，其中有多少只是較高成本的逆轉？您預計今年將節省多少增加成本？

Travis, it's Rejji. Appreciate the question. Yes, so on the waterfall (inaudible) for others referenced for 2024. Yes, the $0.16 of pickup that we're seeing or that we're anticipating year-over-year, you do see a portion of reversal related to storm activity. Obviously, I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we had a significant ice storm in the first quarter of 2023. And so we do not anticipate storms of that magnitude year in and year out. But we also have a good portion of CE Way related savings. And I'd say it's about $60 million or call it, $0.15. And you have to think about the puts and takes here. So you've got the reversal of storms. You definitely have cost savings embedded in this current plan, but we also have inflation in other cost categories like salaries as well as other costs, nonlabor-related costs. And so there's a mix of inflation as well as cost savings to offset or fund that inflation. And then that, coupled with the reversal of the storm is what drives that $0.16 per share.

崔維斯，我是雷吉。感謝這個問題。是的，對於其他提到的 2024 年的瀑布（聽不清楚）。是的，我們看到或我們預計逐年增加 0.16 美元，你確實看到了與風暴活動相關的部分逆轉。顯然，我在準備好的發言中提到，2023 年第一季發生了一場嚴重的冰暴。因此，我們預計不會年復一年地出現如此規模的風暴。但我們也有很大一部分與 CE Way 相關的節省。我想說大約是 6000 萬美元，或者稱之為 0.15 美元。你必須考慮這裡的看跌期權和索取期權。所以你已經看到了風暴的逆轉。目前的計劃中肯定包含成本節約，但我們也存在其他成本類別的通貨膨脹，例如工資以及其他成本、非勞動力相關成本。因此，存在通貨膨脹以及抵消或資助通貨膨脹的成本節省。再加上風暴的逆轉，推動了每股 0.16 美元的上漲。

Okay. Great. That makes sense. And then a broader question, you have touched on a little bit in the call here. But when you think about those clean energy standard buckets in terms of the nuclear, natural gas with carbon capture and renewables. What's your thought long term in general? I know you don't have the specifics yet, but how those 3 buckets work for you? I mean it seems like in your previous earlier comments, nuclear is not really on the table right now. How much does nuclear natural gas CC mix go into that mix when you're thinking about 2035 or 2040?

好的。偉大的。這就說得通了。然後是一個更廣泛的問題，您在電話會議中談到了一些問題。但當你考慮核能、碳捕獲天然氣和再生能源等清潔能源標準時。您的長期整體想法是什麼？我知道您還不知道具體細節，但這 3 個桶子對您有何作用？我的意思是，在您之前的評論中，核現在還沒有真正擺在桌面上。當您考慮 2035 年或 2040 年時，核天然氣 CC 混合會佔多少？

Great question, Travis. What I love, and I do love about this energy law is there a lot of flexibility, just a ton of flexibility in there, and that's the strength and that served us well in previous energy laws, even you go back to 2016, the Integrated Resource Plan. You build a plan that works for your customers, works for your investors and allows you to deliver the energy supply that you need across your service area. Our focus right now is really on this first step, which is the renewable energy plan. And that is wind, it's solar, it's hydro, we have to hit the milestone by 2030 at 50% and then by 2035 at 60%. Those are important milestones first. So that's our focus right now.

好問題，崔維斯。我喜歡的，而且我確實喜歡這部能源法的一點是，它有很大的靈活性，其中有大量的靈活性，這就是力量，並且在以前的能源法中為我們提供了很好的幫助，即使你回到2016 年，綜合能源法資源計畫。您可以製定一個適合您的客戶、投資者的計劃，並允許您在整個服務區域提供所需的能源供應。我們現在的重點其實是第一步，即可再生能源計畫。那就是風能、太陽能、水力，我們必須在 2030 年之前達到 50% 的里程碑，然後到 2035 年達到 60%。首先，這些是重要的里程碑。這就是我們現在的重點。

Now we're not taking our eye off the ball. By 2040, we have to have 100% clean energy. There's a milestone along that journey as well that will get into the carbon capture. That will get into other considerations and how we meet that.

現在我們不會把注意力從球上移開。到2040年，我們必須擁有100%的清潔能源。這段旅程中還有一個里程碑，那就是碳捕獲。這將涉及其他考慮因素以及我們如何滿足這一點。

So that's a broader definition where nuclear is part of it, natural gas with carbon capture and so I anticipate that once we get this renewable energy plan finalized, we're going to start looking out there at those other future sources. Right now, we would see it given our natural gas fleet as consideration for carbon capture as one of the options, but we're not taking anything off the table. We got to have a wide-open landscape, going to do the right math, kind of make sure we have the right plan for our customers and for investors. So we're not saying no to anything. So hopefully that helps.

所以這是一個更廣泛的定義，其中核能是其中的一部分，天然氣是碳捕獲的一部分，所以我預計，一旦我們最終確定了這個可再生能源計劃，我們將開始尋找其他未來的能源。目前，考慮到我們的天然氣船隊將碳捕獲作為選擇之一，我們將看到這一點，但我們不會排除任何可能性。我們必須有一個廣闊的視野，進行正確的計算，確保我們為客戶和投資者制定正確的計劃。所以我們不會拒絕任何事。希望這會有所幫助。

The next question comes from Sophie Karp with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Sophie Karp。

So I wanted to ask you about your prospective growth in the renewable energy investments, obviously, as outlined by the new law and the filing you intend to make. I guess what we have seen in other states and other jurisdictions right now, is somewhat of a pushback maybe on those types of investments. The genesis of that might be different in different jurisdictions, but it seems that the cost is often a barrier.

因此，我想問一下您在再生能源投資方面的預期成長情況，顯然，正如新法律和您打算提交的文件所概述的那樣。我想我們現在在其他州和其他司法管轄區看到的情況可能會對此類投資有所阻礙。不同司法管轄區的起源可能有所不同，但成本似乎往往是一個障礙。

So my question is, how do you plan to sort of avoid that? And what are the steps you've taken to socialize this plan as do not shock the regulators or intervenors or consumers once that becomes a reality?

所以我的問題是，你打算如何避免這種情況？您採取了哪些步驟來將此計劃社會化，以免一旦成為現實，監管機構、幹預者或消費者感到震驚？

It's a great question. There's a lot of dynamics that play out in any type of construction, whether you're putting in a gas pipeline or whether you're building renewables. And we've really at a ground level from a community perspective is where we see the opportunity to be able to best influence this. And so -- for example, we completed the 201-megawatt Heartland wind farm up in the Gratiot County area, Gratiot County and surrounding counties have been very welcoming to renewables. And so we know that because we're on the ground, making that happen. And that's the way we intend to approach these at a very local level. Now there is -- there has been citing reform in the state that was signed in November time frame by our governor. That has to be implemented by the commission. And so there's some work there, but that could also help from a siting perspective as we move forward.

這是一個很好的問題。任何類型的建築都會產生許多動態，無論是鋪設天然氣管道還是建造再生能源。從社區的角度來看，我們確實處於底層，我們看到了能夠最好地影響這一點的機會。例如，我們在格拉休特縣地區建成了 201 兆瓦的 Heartland 風電場，格拉休特縣和周邊縣非常歡迎再生能源。所以我們知道這一點，因為我們在實地，讓這一切發生。這就是我們打算在當地層級解決這些問題的方式。現在，我們的州長在 11 月簽署了該州的改革措施。這必須由委員會執行。因此，這方面還有一些工作要做，但從選址的角度來看，隨著我們的前進，這也可能有所幫助。

I would remind you, too, within this new energy law, we have the opportunity to be outside of Michigan as well in MISO. And so we're going to look for a lot of -- there's windier states or sunnier states. We're going to look for those areas where projects are underway or there's good siting opportunities to be able to connect and be able to achieve the clean energy standard as well.

我還要提醒您，根據新能源法，我們有機會在密西根州以外的地區以及 MISO 地區開展工作。因此，我們將尋找很多 - 有風的州或陽光明媚的州。我們將尋找那些正在進行專案或有良好選址機會的區域，以便能夠連接並實現清潔能源標準。

As I shared also, when I think forward about this new energy standard, it's a mix, right? It's not all ownership, it's not all PPAs, it's probably a blend that makes the most sense, and that's what we're figuring out right now. And so that gives us a lot of options. Again, that's the strength of this to be able to find all those important resources, get them all sited and get them constructed.

正如我也分享的那樣，當我展望這個新能源標準時，它是一個混合體，對吧？這並不全是所有權，也不全然是購電協議，它可能是最有意義的混合，這就是我們現在正在弄清楚的。這給了我們很多選擇。同樣，這就是它的優勢，能夠找到所有這些重要資源，將它們全部定位並建構它們。

I would also remind you, last comment, I'm a little long-winded here, but there is flexibility in this law as you're not there exactly in 2030 or 2035, you can get an exception through the Public Service Commission. So that also offers flexibility to be able to achieve these ambitious clean energy goals.

我還要提醒您，最後的評論，我在這裡有點囉嗦，但是這項法律有靈活性，因為您不完全是在 2030 年或 2035 年，您可以透過公共服務委員會獲得例外。因此，這也為實現這些雄心勃勃的清潔能源目標提供了靈活性。

Our final question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的安東尼克勞德爾。

Just quickly, I wanted to take the other side of Julien's question. I think you finished the year slightly under 15% FFO to debt, potentially get 60 basis points adder for the change at Moody's. I mean, any thought, I think the upgrade trigger for you guys at Moody's is 17%. I mean, any thought of maybe achieving that to get an upgrade in your credit rating?

很快，我想回答朱利安問題的另一面。我認為今年結束時 FFO 債務率略低於 15%，穆迪的變化可能會帶來 60 個基點的增加。我的意思是，無論怎樣，我認為穆迪的升級觸發點是 17%。我的意思是，有沒有想過可以實現這一目標來升級您的信用評級？

Anthony, it's Rejji. I appreciate the question, and we're also enjoying our time in the 2024 Sri fest. Thank you for acknowledging that. I would just say it's a pretty big lift, I would think, to get mathematically to that '17 or high teens area that Moody's and S&P have guided us toward if we wanted to get an upgrade. And so that would require in the absence of additional equity, pretty substantial cash flow generation and/or monetization of tax credits. And so I don't foresee that in the near term or in this vintage of our 5-year plan. And I've also just observing markets now for, it seems like with the last 15 to 20 years, it really hasn't been worth the cost of getting to those higher credit rating levels.

安東尼，我是雷吉。我很欣賞這個問題，我們也很享受 2024 年斯里蘭卡節的時光。感謝您承認這一點。我只想說，我認為，如果我們想獲得升級，從數學上來說，達到穆迪和標準普爾引導我們走向的 17 歲或高青少年區域是一個相當大的提升。因此，在缺乏額外股權的情況下，這將需要相當大量的現金流產生和/或稅收抵免的貨幣化。因此，我預計短期內或我們的五年計劃中不會出現這種情況。我現在也在觀察市場，似乎在過去 15 到 20 年裡，為達到更高的信用評級水平而付出的成本確實不值得。

If you think about the juice being worth the squeeze, just the amount of coupon that you can save by having a higher credit rating has not been worth the cost of all the equity issuances and so on. And so we like where we are right now. We think that's the most efficient area from a credit rating perspective to issue debt. And really, there's no appetite to equitize the balance sheet in a manner that will allow us to get an upgrade. So we feel good where we are as long with the way of saying that.

如果你認為果汁值得榨取，那麼光是擁有更高的信用評級可以節省的優惠券金額就抵不上所有股票發行等的成本。所以我們喜歡我們現在的處境。我們認為，從信用評等的角度來看，這是發行債務最有效的領域。事實上，我們沒有興趣以一種能讓我們升級的方式來平衡資產負債表。因此，只要堅持這樣的說法，我們就會感覺很好。

We have no further questions. I'll turn the call back to Garrick for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我會將電話轉回給加里克，讓其結束語。

Thank you, Emily. And I'd like to thank all of you for joining us today for our year-end earnings call. I look forward to seeing you on the road here in the near future. Take care, and stay safe.

謝謝你，艾米麗。我要感謝大家今天參加我們的年終財報電話會議。我期待在不久的將來在這裡的路上見到你。保重，並保持安全。

This concludes today's conference. We thank everyone for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。