CMS能源 (CMS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone and welcome to the CMS Energy 2023 First Quarter Results. The earnings news release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on the CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家早上好，歡迎來到 CMS Energy 2023 第一季度業績。今天早些時候發布的收益新聞稿和本次網絡廣播中使用的演示文稿可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分獲取。此通話正在錄音中。 （操作員說明）

Just a reminder, there will be a rebroadcast of this conference call today beginning at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time running through May 4. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section.

提醒一下，今天中午 12:00 將重播此電話會議。東部時間持續到 5 月 4 日。該演示文稿也進行網絡廣播，可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分獲取。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Sri Maddipati, Treasurer and Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations.

此時，我想將電話轉給司庫兼財務和投資者關係副總裁 Sri Maddipati 先生。

Thank you, Bailey. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，貝利。大家早上好，感謝你們今天加入我們。

With me are Garrick Rochow, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rejji Hayes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

和我一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Garrick Rochow；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rejji Hayes。

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding the risks and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix and posted on our website.

本演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，了解有關可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的風險和其他因素的更多信息。本演示文稿還包括非 GAAP 措施。這些措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節包含在附錄中並發佈在我們的網站上。

Now I'll turn the call over to Garrick.

現在我會把電話轉給加里克。

Thank you, Sri and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Our commitment to industry-leading financial performance spans 2 decades and it's this investment thesis that is foundational to our performance. Over that time, we've experienced changes in commissions, legislatures and governors, unplanned weather and storms, recessions and a pandemic. In each and every year, we have delivered for our customers and for you, our investors. It's the -- it's the performance you have come to expect from a premium name like CMS Energy and this year is no different.

謝謝你，Sri，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們對行業領先的財務業績的承諾跨越了 2 年，而這一投資主題是我們業績的基礎。在那段時間裡，我們經歷了委員會、立法機構和州長的變化、意外的天氣和風暴、經濟衰退和大流行病。每一年，我們都為我們的客戶和您，我們的投資者做出了貢獻。這是 - 這是您對 CMS Energy 這樣的優質品牌所期望的表現，今年也不例外。

We remain squarely focused on our mission at CMS Energy, making the needed investments in safety, reliability and decarbonization of our system, balanced by customer affordability and our $15.5 billion 5-year customer investment plan. These investments in our expansive and aging electric and gas systems are critical to enhance reliability and resiliency and are supported by Michigan's constructive legislation and regulatory framework.

我們始終專注於我們在 CMS Energy 的使命，在我們系統的安全性、可靠性和脫碳方面進行必要的投資，同時平衡客戶的承受能力和我們 155 億美元的 5 年期客戶投資計劃。這些對我們膨脹和老化的電力和天然氣系統的投資對於提高可靠性和彈性至關重要，並得到密歇根建設性立法和監管框架的支持。

Our investments are coupled with our lean operating system, the CE Way, which helps us manage and lower cost. This ongoing drive to see and eliminate waste is evident from the field to the office and helps improve our efficiency, ensuring we deliver customer value while keeping bills affordable. We are committed to this. And I believe we do it better than most -- any company in the industry.

我們的投資與我們的精益操作系統 CE Way 相結合，這有助於我們管理和降低成本。從現場到辦公室，這種持續發現和消除浪費的動力是顯而易見的，它有助於提高我們的效率，確保我們在提供客戶價值的同時保持賬單負擔得起。我們致力於此。我相信我們比大多數公司做得更好——業內任何一家公司。

As we round out the first quarter of 2023, I want to share a few highlights. First, Ford's announcement of the BlueOval Battery Park. This is another important win, which brings $3.5 billion, 2,500 jobs and adds to the growing list of economic development projects in our service territory. We saw additional enrollments in our Voluntary Green Pricing program, supporting the build-out of our first large tranche of owned solar representing 309 megawatt of the total 1,000 megawatt approved. Preparations continue for the acquisition and transition of the Covert generating facility scheduled for June as approved by IRP.

在 2023 年第一季度即將結束之際，我想分享一些亮點。首先，福特宣布推出 BlueOval Battery Park。這是另一個重要的勝利，它帶來了 35 億美元、2,500 個工作崗位，並增加了我們服務領域不斷增長的經濟發展項目清單。我們看到更多人加入了我們的自願綠色定價計劃，支持我們第一批大型自有太陽能的擴建，佔批准的 1,000 兆瓦總量中的 309 兆瓦。經 IRP 批准，計劃於 6 月進行的 Covert 發電設施的收購和過渡準備工作仍在繼續。

And in our gas business, began construction of our Mid-Michigan pipeline, a $550 million, 56-mile pipeline to enhance deliverability and safety of our natural gas system.

在我們的天然氣業務中，開始建設我們的中密歇根管道，這是一條耗資 5.5 億美元、長 56 英里的管道，旨在提高我們天然氣系統的輸送能力和安全性。

I want to be clear, at CMS Energy, year after year, regardless of conditions, we are positioned to deliver.

我想明確一點，在 CMS Energy，年復一年，無論條件如何，我們都準備好交付。

Now let me address the extreme weather we faced in the first quarter. In late February and early March, we experienced the second largest storm event in our service territory. Our line crews are some of the most skilled and experienced in the business. And they showed up with able hands and hearts of service and our customers were well served by their dedication. In addition to our crews in the field, there are hundreds of people behind the scenes to support our crews and our communities, including many of our coworkers, who volunteered to serve customers throughout the restoration.

現在讓我談談我們在第一季度面臨的極端天氣。 2 月底和 3 月初，我們經歷了服務區域內第二大風暴事件。我們的線路工作人員是業內最熟練和最有經驗的人。他們以乾練的手和服務的心出現了，我們的客戶因他們的奉獻精神而得到了很好的服務。除了我們在現場的工作人員外，還有數百人在幕後支持我們的工作人員和我們的社區，包括我們的許多同事，他們在整個修復過程中自願為客戶提供服務。

I know many of my coworkers join our earnings call. And from my heart, I want to say thank you to each and every one of you for showing up for our customers and for each other. Because of our team, working together to serve, 97% of our customers were with power within 3 days.

我知道我的很多同事都參加了我們的財報電話會議。我發自內心地感謝你們每一位為我們的客戶和彼此出現的人。因為我們的團隊，齊心協力服務，3天內97%的客戶都上電了。

In our 135-year history, 8 of the most destructive storms have occurred in the last 20 years. That's a significant data point. The severity and frequency of storms we're seeing highlights the need to enhance critical investment and amplify our efforts on the reliability and resiliency of our electric distribution system. We need more undergrounding. This is an area where we are significantly behind some of our Midwest peers. We also need to do more sectionalizing, automated transfer reclosers and looping and overall system hardening. These important investments are critical to improve reliability and resiliency for our customers and will be outlined in our pending electric rate case and in our updated 5-year Electric Distribution Infrastructure Investment Plan.

在我們 135 年的歷史中，過去 20 年發生了 8 次最具破壞性的風暴。這是一個重要的數據點。我們所看到的風暴的嚴重性和頻率凸顯了加強關鍵投資和加大我們在配電系統可靠性和彈性方面的努力的必要性。我們需要更多的地下設施。這是我們明顯落後於一些中西部同行的領域。我們還需要做更多的分段、自動轉換重合閘和循環以及整體系統強化。這些重要投資對於提高客戶的可靠性和彈性至關重要，並將在我們未決的電費案例和我們更新的 5 年配電基礎設施投資計劃中進行概述。

We also plan to include an investment recovery mechanism in our upcoming rate case to add certainty to our investments. I'm pleased that our commission has been supportive of reliability improvements, doubling our efforts around tree trimming since 2020. This as well as other customer investments has contributed to the 20% improvement in our reliability in 2022. But there is more work to be done and more needed investment. We will continue to work productively with the commission on the reliability and resiliency of our electric distribution system, so we prepare for increasingly severe weather. We expect further alignment and collaboration and the needed investments in the upcoming storm audit as we work on a common goal of improving our distribution system for all customers.

我們還計劃在我們即將推出的利率案例中加入投資回收機制，以增加我們投資的確定性。我很高興我們的佣金一直支持可靠性的提高，自 2020 年以來我們在修剪樹木方面的努力增加了一倍。這項投資以及其他客戶投資使我們的可靠性在 2022 年提高了 20%。但還有更多工作要做完成，需要更多的投資。我們將繼續與委員會就我們配電系統的可靠性和彈性進行富有成效的合作，以便我們為日益惡劣的天氣做好準備。我們期待在即將到來的風暴審計中進一步協調和合作以及所需的投資，因為我們致力於為所有客戶改進我們的分銷系統的共同目標。

I'm confident in our ability to work with all stakeholders because Michigan has the legislative and regulatory framework in place to enable these investments and to attract the capital needed to drive the changes we all want to see. We have a productive energy law that provides forward-looking test years, constructive ROEs and supportive incentives. It is this environment, which has earned Michigan the rank as a top-tier regulatory jurisdiction for the past decade.

我對我們與所有利益相關者合作的能力充滿信心，因為密歇根州擁有適當的立法和監管框架來支持這些投資並吸引所需的資金來推動我們都希望看到的變化。我們有一個生產性能源法，提供前瞻性的測試年、建設性的 ROE 和支持性激勵措施。正是這種環境，使密歇根在過去十年中成為頂級監管轄區。

Now I know many of you will want to dive into the details of the back and forth in both the regulatory and legislative arena, which we are happy to do in Q&A., but remember, it's all part of the process. Let me remind you, we have a track record of working with all stakeholders to drive successful outcomes. It's why we settled 3 cases in 2022.

現在我知道你們中的許多人都想深入了解監管和立法領域的來回細節，我們很樂意在問答環節這樣做，但請記住，這都是過程的一部分。讓我提醒您，我們擁有與所有利益相關者合作以取得成功成果的良好記錄。這就是為什麼我們在 2022 年解決了 3 個案件。

Now I want to be clear where we stand today. We saw both unseasonably warm weather in January and February as well as significant cost with the ice storm. As you would expect, we've taken actions early to counteract that impact. Therefore, we are reaffirming all our financial objectives.

現在我想澄清一下我們今天的立場。我們在 1 月和 2 月看到了反常的溫暖天氣，以及冰暴造成的巨大損失。如您所料，我們已及早採取行動來抵消這種影響。因此，我們重申我們所有的財務目標。

Most importantly, our full year guidance of $3.06 to $3.12 per share with continued confidence towards the high end.

最重要的是，我們的全年指導價為每股 3.06 美元至 3.12 美元，並繼續對高端市場充滿信心。

In the first quarter, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.70. We're also reaffirming our long-term adjusted earnings growth of 6% to 8% per year with continued confidence for the high end and remain committed to annual dividend per share growth of 6% to 8%.

第一季度，我們公佈的調整後每股收益為 0.70 美元。我們還重申我們的長期調整後收益每年增長 6% 至 8%，並繼續對高端市場充滿信心，並繼續致力於實現每股年度股息增長 6% 至 8%。

This isn't our first rodeo, whether it was the pandemic or weather-related, we managed the work to deliver for both customers and investors through the CE Way and other countermeasures already underway. We will offset the unplanned headwinds experienced early in the year. I have confidence in our team and in our plan for 2023 and beyond, given our long-standing commitment and performance.

這不是我們的第一個牛仔競技表演，無論是與流行病還是與天氣有關，我們都通過 CE Way 和其他已經在進行的對策來管理為客戶和投資者提供的工作。我們將抵消年初經歷的意外逆風。鑑於我們長期的承諾和表現，我對我們的團隊以及 2023 年及以後的計劃充滿信心。

At CMS Energy, we deliver for customers while consistently delivering industry-leading growth.

在 CMS Energy，我們在為客戶提供服務的同時始終如一地實現行業領先的增長。

Now I'll hand it over to Rejji to provide some additional details and insights.

現在我將把它交給 Rejji 來提供一些額外的細節和見解。

Thank you, Garrick and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，加里克，大家早上好。

For the first quarter of 2023, we delivered adjusted net income of $204 million or $0.70 per share, largely driven by unfavorable weather and costs related to service restoration as a result of the significant storm activity that Garrick noted earlier. To elaborate on the impact of weather on sales, given the well-publicized warm winter experienced in the Midwest, the number of heating degree days in our service territory during the quarter were approximately 18% below normal weather pattern. The atypically warm weather, coupled with a strong comp in the first quarter 2022 resulted in $0.27 per share of negative variance versus the comparable period in 2022, as noted on Slide 7.

2023 年第一季度，我們實現了 2.04 億美元或每股 0.70 美元的調整後淨收入，這主要是由於不利的天氣和加里克早些時候指出的重大風暴活動導致的服務恢復相關成本。為了詳細說明天氣對銷售的影響，鑑於中西部經歷了廣為人知的暖冬，本季度我們服務區域的供暖天數比正常天氣模式低約 18%。如幻燈片 7 所示，異常溫暖的天氣加上 2022 年第一季度的強勁表現導致與 2022 年同期相比每股負方差為 0.27 美元。

Rate relief, net of investment-related expenses, resulted in $0.03 per share of negative variance as last year's constructive electric and gas rate case settlements were offset primarily by the roll off of tax benefits realized in the first quarter of 2022 associated with the prior gas rate case settlement as expected.

扣除與投資相關的費用後，利率減免導致每股 0.03 美元的負差異，因為去年的建設性電費和天然氣費率案件和解主要被 2022 年第一季度實現的與先前天然氣相關的稅收優惠的減少所抵消按預期率案件解決。

From a cost perspective, as mentioned, our financial performance in the first quarter was significantly impacted by higher operating and maintenance or O&M expenses attributable to storm restoration costs, which resulted in $0.20 per share of negative variance versus the first quarter of 2022. It is worth noting, however, that given the elevated storm costs we've seen over the last few years, we have incorporated fairly conservative assumptions for this cost category in our full year forecast.

從成本的角度來看，如前所述，我們第一季度的財務業績受到風暴恢復成本導致的更高運營和維護或 O&M 費用的顯著影響，這導致與 2022 年第一季度相比每股負差異為 0.20 美元。這是然而，值得注意的是，考慮到我們在過去幾年中看到的風暴成本增加，我們在全年預測中對這一成本類別進行了相當保守的假設。

Looking ahead, as always, we plan for normal weather, which equates to $0.14 per share of negative variance versus the comparable period in 2022 due to the absence of strong sales at the electric utility driven by last year's warm summer. We anticipate that the estimated negative variance attributable to weather will be more than offset by rate relief net of investment-related costs, which we have quantified at $0.17 per share versus the comparable period in 2022. Our underlying assumptions for rate relief are largely driven by last year's successful gas and electric rate case settlements and we have assumed a constructive outcome in our pending gas rate case.

展望未來，一如既往，我們計劃正常天氣，這相當於每股 0.14 美元的負方差與 2022 年同期相比，由於去年溫暖的夏季推動電力公司銷售不強勁。我們預計因天氣造成的估計負方差將被減去投資相關成本的利率減免所抵消，我們將其量化為每股 0.17 美元，與 2022 年同期相比。我們對利率減免的基本假設主要由去年成功的天然氣和電費案件和解，我們在未決的天然氣費案件中取得了建設性的結果。

Closing out the glide path for the remainder of the year, as noted during our Q4 call, we anticipate lower overall O&M expense in the utility driven by the usual cost performance fueled by the CE Way. And in light of the weather-related headwinds in the first quarter, we have supplemented our planned productivity for the year by limiting hiring, reducing our use of consultants and contractors, accelerating longer-term IT cost reduction initiatives and eliminating other discretionary spending among other activities. These cost performance measures will support the $0.28 per share of positive variance versus the comparable period in 2022.

正如我們在第四季度電話會議中指出的那樣，在今年剩餘時間裡結束下滑路徑，我們預計在 CE Way 推動的通常成本績效的推動下，公用事業的整體 O&M 費用會降低。鑑於第一季度與天氣相關的不利因素，我們通過限制招聘、減少對顧問和承包商的使用、加速長期 IT 成本削減計劃以及消除其他可自由支配的支出等方式補充了今年的計劃生產力活動。與 2022 年同期相比，這些成本績效指標將支持每股 0.28 美元的正方差。

And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that none of these actions will impact the safety and reliability of our electric and gas business.

如果我不提這些行動都不會影響我們電力和天然氣業務的安全性和可靠性，那我就失職了。

Lastly, as we discussed during our fourth quarter call, we're assuming modest growth at NorthStar and the benefits associated with the roughly $0.12 per share of pull aheads achieved in the fourth quarter 2022 as per our original guide. And to offer further risk mitigation of the financial headwinds encountered in the first quarter and provide additional contingency should we need it, we have supplemented these opportunities with anticipated cost savings as a parent, largely in the form of opportunistic financings and tax planning, which in aggregate, we estimate will drive $0.36 to $0.42 per share positive variance versus the comparable period in 2022.

最後，正如我們在第四季度電話會議上討論的那樣，我們假設 NorthStar 適度增長，並根據我們最初的指南，在 2022 年第四季度實現每股約 0.12 美元的超前收益。為了進一步減輕第一季度遇到的財務逆風的風險，並在我們需要時提供額外的應急措施，我們作為母公司以預期的成本節約來補充這些機會，主要以機會主義融資和稅收籌劃的形式，這在總體而言，我們估計與 2022 年同期相比，每股收益將增加 0.36 美元至 0.42 美元。

Before moving on, I'll just note that though our track record of delivering on our financial objectives over the last 2 weeks -- 2 decades speaks for itself, we remain perpetually paranoid in our financial planning process. More bluntly, we always do the worryings, so you don't have to. And to that end, I'm pleased to report that we've already begun to see the benefits of the numerous countermeasures implemented in the first quarter. As such, I'm highly confident that we will realize the balance of expected savings over the course of the year.

在繼續之前，我只想指出，儘管我們在過去 2 週 - 20 年內實現財務目標的記錄不言而喻，但我們在財務規劃過程中仍然永遠偏執。更直截了當地說，我們總是做那些令人擔憂的事情，所以你不必這樣做。為此，我很高興地報告，我們已經開始看到第一季度實施的眾多反制措施帶來的好處。因此，我非常有信心我們將在這一年中實現預期節省的平衡。

Moving on to the financing plan. Slide 8 offers more specificity on the balance of our planned funding needs in 2023, which are largely limited to debt issuances at the utility, a good portion of which has already been priced and/or funded over the past several months. As we have noted in the past, the parent's contribution of the funding needs of the Covert acquisition is in place with the roughly $440 million of forward equity contracts. This equity will be issued in connection with the acquisition of the facility and we have assumed the associated EPS dilution in our full year guidance.

繼續融資計劃。幻燈片 8 更具體地說明了我們 2023 年計劃的資金需求平衡，這些需求主要限於公用事業公司的債務發行，其中很大一部分已經在過去幾個月中定價和/或融資。正如我們過去所指出的那樣，母公司對 Covert 收購的資金需求的貢獻與大約 4.4 億美元的遠期股權合同有關。該股權將在收購該設施時發行，我們在全年指導中假設了相關的 EPS 稀釋。

While we don't have any further required financing needs at the parent this year, we will continue to evaluate opportunistic financings to derisk our future funding needs if market conditions are accommodative. Our approach to our financing plan is similar to how we run the rest of the business. We plan conservatively and capitalize on opportunities as they arise. This approach has been tried and true year in and year out and has enabled us to deliver on our operational and financial objectives, irrespective of the circumstances, to the benefit of our customers and investors and this year is no different.

雖然我們今年母公司沒有任何進一步的融資需求，但如果市場條件寬鬆，我們將繼續評估機會性融資，以降低我們未來融資需求的風險。我們的融資計劃方法與我們經營其餘業務的方法類似。我們保守地計劃並在機會出現時加以利用。這種方法年復一年地得到驗證，使我們能夠在任何情況下實現我們的運營和財務目標，為我們的客戶和投資者帶來利益，今年也不例外。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Garrick for his final remarks before the Q&A session.

有了這個，我會把它交還給加里克，讓他在問答環節之前發表最後的評論。

Thank you, Rejji. As you look at Slide 9, I'll remind you again, our track record spans 2 decades of consistent industry-leading results despite changing commissioners, legislatures and governors, recessions, severe weather and storm activity, or a pandemic. We're here for the long haul. We have powered Michigan's progress for nearly 1.5 centuries. And as we look ahead, we see great opportunities to support the state's growth through critical infrastructure as we help power Michigan through the next century.

謝謝你，雷吉。當你看幻燈片 9 時，我會再次提醒你，儘管委員、立法機構和州長不斷變化、經濟衰退、惡劣天氣和風暴活動或大流行，但我們的業績記錄跨越了 20 年的行業領先結果。我們長期在這裡。我們為密歇根州的進步提供了近 1.5 個世紀的動力。展望未來，我們看到了通過關鍵基礎設施支持該州發展的巨大機會，因為我們將幫助密歇根州度過下個世紀。

With that, Bailey, please open the lines for Q&A.

那麼，Bailey，請打開問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Please go ahead, Jeremy. Your line is now open.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。請繼續，傑里米。您的線路現已開通。

And just wanted to come back to the key focus, I think, in the market at this point, just with the adverse weather and storm, headwinds in the first quarter. Great to see that you're still targeting high end of the guide there. And just wondering, as you think about contingency FLEX this year, I guess, if there is anything else that moves against you, do you have more contingency that could offset that if weather shapes up less than expected or anything else moves against plan?

只是想回到關鍵焦點，我認為，在這一點上，在市場上，只有惡劣的天氣和風暴，第一季度的逆風。很高興看到您仍然以指南的高端為目標。只是想知道，當你考慮今年的應急 FLEX 時，我想，如果有任何其他事情對你不利，你是否有更多的意外事件可以抵消天氣情況低於預期或任何其他事情不利於計劃？

I have confidence in our ability to deliver. That's the first point, Jeremy. And we know there's a lot of year remaining. And so really in all our efforts, we look to build contingency out -- throughout the year. And so maybe if I just take a step back because I know this is a popular question today and just talk about our playbook. Rejji alluded to it but let me offer a little more specifics. And I'd break it into really 5 areas.

我對我們的交付能力充滿信心。這是第一點，傑里米。我們知道還有很多年。因此，實際上在我們所有的努力中，我們希望在全年建立應急計劃。因此，也許我只是退後一步，因為我知道這是今天的一個熱門問題，而只是談談我們的劇本。 Rejji 提到了它，但讓我提供更多細節。我會把它分成真正的 5 個區域。

The first 1 is, we plan conservatively. And you know this, Jeremy. We've done this year after year after year. That's what leads to our consistency, 1 of the reasons we had consistent financial performance. And also, we talked about this in Q4. What we did in 2022 to derisk the year. And then just adding Rejji's points, we budget for storms, and we budget conservatively for storms because we know they occur throughout the year. And so in many cases, this is just a weather story. So the first piece is just we plan conservatively.

第一個是，我們保守地計劃。你知道這一點，傑里米。我們年復一年地完成了這一工作。這就是導致我們保持一致的原因，這是我們擁有一致財務業績的原因之一。而且，我們在第四季度談到了這一點。我們在 2022 年做了什麼來降低這一年的風險。然後只需添加 Rejji 的點數，我們就可以為風暴做預算，而且我們對風暴進行了保守的預算，因為我們知道它們全年都會發生。所以在很多情況下，這只是一個天氣故事。所以第一部分只是我們保守地計劃。

The second piece of the plan is the CE Way. And you -- this is another strong suit for us. And I'll remind everybody, it's industrial engineering and it's a lean operating system. It's science, it's proven throughout the years, for many different companies. And I see a great opportunity that we continue to deliver on year after year. Scheduling optimization is one example underway right now. We're making capital IT investments to get other efficiency improvements. It improves customer satisfaction while reducing costs. Our run rate has typically been around $50 million a year, as you know, there's a lot more muscle we have there.

計劃的第二部分是CE Way。而你——這是我們的另一個強項。我會提醒大家，這是工業工程，是精益操作系統。這是科學，多年來已為許多不同的公司證明了這一點。我看到了一個我們年復一年繼續提供的好機會。調度優化是目前正在進行的一個例子。我們正在進行資本 IT 投資，以獲得其他效率改進。它提高了客戶滿意度，同時降低了成本。我們的運行率通常每年約為 5000 萬美元，如您所知，我們擁有更多的實力。

The third piece is really around the labor piece. And that is what you expect. We released some consultants. Our contractors are flexible, so we dialed that down a bit. We pinch back on overtime and then we hold on hiring. And so those things help as well.

第三塊真的是圍繞勞動塊。這就是你所期望的。我們釋放了一些顧問。我們的承包商很靈活，所以我們稍微調低了一點。我們縮減加班時間，然後繼續招聘。所以這些東西也有幫助。

The fourth area is really discretionary spending. It's limiting conferences and travel and some of the training. And you think that's small but it's actually big when you apply it across the entire company.

第四個領域是真正的可自由支配的支出。它限制了會議和旅行以及一些培訓。你認為這很小，但當你將它應用到整個公司時，它實際上很大。

And then the fifth piece and Rejji hit on it, was good tax planning and just opportunistic financing. And so that's the recipe. And as I said, this isn't our first rodeo. If you go back to the pandemic, we had to find $100 million. 50% of it came through the CE Way, 50% through other actions, very similar to what we're doing right now. And so we're going to change this bar and we're going to add some contingency throughout the year.

然後 Rejji 想到了第五點，那就是良好的稅收籌劃和機會主義融資。這就是秘訣。正如我所說，這不是我們的第一個牛仔競技表演。如果你回到大流行病，我們必須找到 1 億美元。其中 50% 來自 CE Way，50% 來自其他行動，這與我們現在正在做的非常相似。因此，我們將改變這個標準，我們將在全年增加一些應急措施。

So I feel very confident in our ability to deliver and to weather whatever Mother Nature throws at us throughout the year.

因此，我對我們在一年中交付和經受大自然母親拋給我們的任何事情的能力充滿信心。

Got it. That's very helpful. And maybe pivoting -- maybe pivoting to the gas case. Just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about that. I know the gas case maybe -- it doesn't come as much focus as electric, generally speaking. But what are the key focus points across stakeholders in the gas case at this point? And just trying to get a sense for your thoughts on chances for a settlement without getting too far ahead of yourself.

知道了。這很有幫助。也許轉向——也許轉向煤氣箱。只是想知道你是否可以多談談這個。我可能知道煤氣案——一般來說，它不像電案那樣受到關注。但是，此時天然氣案例中利益相關者的主要關注點是什麼？並且只是想了解您對解決機會的想法，而又不會太過分。

First things first, this is a good and constructive starting point. If I were just to dissect it a little bit for you, what we saw from staff in the [AG] as far as ROEs was better than previous staff in AG positions. And so that bodes well for an ROE and some of the financial metrics. The other important piece is, we build that -- remember, we built that case over Q3 and Q4 last year. And so gas prices were rising. We also saw some expense from pension and OPEB perspective but when you fast forward to today, those have changed. And so gas prices are lower. We snapped the line at the end of the year on pension and OPEB expense.

首先，這是一個良好且具有建設性的起點。如果我只是為你稍微剖析一下，就 ROE 而言，我們從 [AG] 的員工那裡看到的比以前擔任 AG 職位的員工要好。因此，這對於 ROE 和一些財務指標來說是個好兆頭。另一個重要的部分是，我們建立了那個——記住，我們在去年第三季度和第四季度建立了這個案例。因此，天然氣價格上漲。我們還從養老金和 OPEB 的角度看到了一些支出，但當你快進到今天時，這些已經發生了變化。因此汽油價格較低。我們在年底打破了養老金和 OPEB 支出的界限。

And so we got a $212 million (inaudible) that effectively pulls that down because the (inaudible) is different than what we saw when we built the case. And then the big piece is that people are talking about here is the sales forecast. And there's about $10 million, $12 million difference there. And so let me walk through that. We have used this method since 2010 to project sales. It's a 15-year regression type model. We haven't changed a bit. It's tried and true and is accurate. And here's the important point. Back in 2010, the commission ordered us, let me repeat, the commission ordered us to use this method.

因此，我們得到了 2.12 億美元（聽不清），這有效地降低了它，因為（聽不清）與我們在構建案例時看到的不同。然後最重要的是人們在這裡談論的是銷售預測。那里大約有 1000 萬美元、1200 萬美元的差異。因此，讓我介紹一下。自 2010 年以來，我們一直使用這種方法來預測銷售。這是一個 15 年的回歸類型模型。我們一點都沒變。它久經考驗且準確無誤。這是重要的一點。早在 2010 年，委員會就命令我們，讓我重複一遍，委員會命令我們使用這種方法。

That was in case U-15986. And so we're doing exactly what the commission told us to do. So we feel like really good about where we're positioned there. And so there's a lot of cats and dogs but bottom line, take this away, it's a good constructive starting point. The other thing you asked about settlement, we'll always look for the opportunity for settlement but again, we sit in a very constructive jurisdiction. So I'm very comfortable taking it to the end and getting approval order from the commission.

那是為了防止 U-15986。所以我們正在做委員會告訴我們要做的事情。所以我們對我們在那裡的位置感覺非常好。所以有很多貓和狗，但最重要的是，把這個拿走，這是一個很好的建設性起點。關於和解，你問的另一件事是，我們將一直尋找和解的機會，但同樣，我們位於一個非常有建設性的司法管轄區。所以我很樂意把它進行到最後並獲得委員會的批准令。

The next question today comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. (Operator Instructions)

今天的下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shar Pourreza。 （操作員說明）

We will move on to our next question. Our next question today comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.

我們將繼續下一個問題。我們今天的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Hopefully, strike 2 works here. You -- can you hear me?

希望 strike 2 在這裡有效。你——你能聽到我說話嗎？

We can, Julien.

我們可以，朱利安。

Excellent. Let me follow up on the first question here just around the uptick in usage, nonutility tax and other. You guys elaborated on it. So not only have you pressed some of those levers to see the quarter-over-quarter change in '23 and the range, right, you're talking about $0.36 to $0.42 of positive offsets there now. But in addition to that, you've got further levers to go to the extent in which that they might materialize. I just want to make sure I understand the comment from earlier.

出色的。讓我圍繞使用率、非公用事業稅和其他方面的上升來跟進這裡的第一個問題。你們詳細說明了。因此，您不僅按下了其中一些槓桿來查看 23 年的季度環比變化和範圍，對，您現在談論的是 0.36 美元到 0.42 美元的正抵消。但除此之外，你還有更多的槓桿來達到它們可能實現的程度。我只是想確保我理解之前的評論。

Julien, this is Rejji. Yes, you've got it exactly right. And Garrick, I think, offered a wonderful dissertation on how we approach cost reduction opportunities. The only thing I would add to his comments is that when it comes to cost reduction, we don't discriminate and we look across the entire cost structure. When you exclude depreciation, it's about $7 billion annually and about $1 billion of that is a combination of interest expense and tax related spend, combination of federal, state income tax, as well as property tax. And so we look across all of those cost categories to identify opportunities. And what you're seeing in that penultimate bar in that waterfall are opportunities that we anticipate around potential prefundings.

朱利安，這是雷吉。是的，你完全正確。我認為，加里克 (Garrick) 提供了一篇關於我們如何處理降低成本機會的精彩論文。在他的評論中，我唯一要補充的是，在降低成本方面，我們不會一視同仁，我們會審視整個成本結構。當你排除折舊時，它每年約為 70 億美元，其中約 10 億美元是利息支出和稅收相關支出的組合，聯邦、州所得稅和財產稅的組合。因此，我們會查看所有這些成本類別以識別機會。你在那個瀑布的倒數第二個欄中看到的是我們預計圍繞潛在預籌資金的機會。

As you know, we aggressively look at the maturity profile of our bonds and see if there are opportunities to take out bonds prematurely. So we'll look at those. And then again, on the tax planning side, we're always looking for opportunities to reduce costs, whether that's for state tax, property tax or otherwise. And so that's what's incorporated into that last item. And again, that's all I would add to Garrick's good comments on how we approach cost reduction.

如您所知，我們積極查看債券的到期情況，看看是否有機會過早購買債券。所以我們會看看那些。再一次，在稅收籌劃方面，我們一直在尋找降低成本的機會，無論是州稅、財產稅還是其他。這就是最後一項中包含的內容。再一次，這就是我要添加到 Garrick 關於我們如何降低成本的好評中的全部內容。

Excellent and fair enough. And then just following up on some of the conversation on regulatory mechanisms. You talked about including an investment regulatory mechanism in your upcoming case. Can you talk about what that looks like? And perhaps talk about that in parallel with some of this conversation on ring fencing here? I mean how do you think about ring fencing to isolate spending on specific subject areas, where it sounds like this, the IRM might be related? And then Also, maybe you could talk about ring fencing in the context of veg management efforts.

優秀而公平。然後只是跟進一些關於監管機制的對話。您談到在即將進行的案例中包括投資監管機制。你能談談那看起來像什麼嗎？也許在談論這里關於環形圍欄的一些談話的同時談論這個？我的意思是，您如何看待環柵欄來隔離特定主題領域的支出，這聽起來像 IRM 可能相關？然後，也許你可以在蔬菜管理工作的背景下談論圍欄。

Absolutely, Julien. And you've obviously listened to the Chair Scripps, he's used the word ring fencing around some of the capital investments. So the way we think about it is really, I'd put it in 3 buckets. And so the first bucket is really, we know that in order to deliver reliability and resiliency for our customers, that's going to take more capital investment. It's just the nature of an aging systems with more severe weather. And so we're all focused on that. The commission -- we're certainly focused on the company. And so is every one of our coworkers here within CMS Energy and the broader Consumers Energy. So we're squarely focused on that first bucket.

當然，朱利安。你顯然聽過斯克里普斯主席的話，他在一些資本投資周圍使用了“圍欄”這個詞。所以我們考慮它的方式真的是，我把它放在 3 個桶裡。所以第一個桶真的是，我們知道，為了為我們的客戶提供可靠性和彈性，這將需要更多的資本投資。這只是具有更惡劣天氣的老化系統的本質。所以我們都專注於此。佣金——我們當然專注於公司。我們在 CMS Energy 和更廣泛的 Consumers Energy 中的每一位同事也是如此。所以我們完全專注於第一個桶。

The second bucket really is, is what you brought up and that's the commission wants to be able to ring fence it. And they're looking at the prudency, accountability. And typically, when we've asked for large increases, they want to know that we can do the work, that we have the resources to ramp up. And so that's an important piece. And this IRM, well, this tracking mechanism allows us to do that and provide the accountability that the commission is looking to see.

第二個桶真的是，是你提出來的，這是委員會希望能夠圍起來的。他們正在審慎、問責。通常，當我們要求大幅增加時，他們想知道我們可以完成這項工作，我們有資源來增加。所以這是一個重要的部分。而這個 IRM，嗯，這個跟踪機制使我們能夠做到這一點，並提供委員會希望看到的問責制。

And so ultimately, that should lead to the third bucket, which is the recovery piece, which is helpful for investors. And so I see all those 3 working together. And in fact, I want to give you an example. Back in 2011 and I was engaged with it in 2011, we did a similar on our gas business. We were looking to increase the amount we spent on replacing mains and services. We started a new gas construction group. And the commission and staff at the time were -- had questions about -- important questions about how you're going to do that and how are you going to ramp up the resources. And so we did a similar type mechanism then, delivering improved safety for our customers, replacing mains and services and creating that ring fence, that accountability associated with the tracking mechanism.

所以最終，這應該會導致第三個桶，這是對投資者有幫助的複蘇部分。所以我看到所有這 3 個一起工作。事實上，我想給你舉個例子。回到 2011 年，我在 2011 年參與其中，我們在天然氣業務上做了類似的事情。我們希望增加更換主電源和服務的費用。我們成立了一個新的燃氣建設集團。當時的委員會和工作人員 - 有疑問 - 關於你將如何做到這一點以及你將如何增加資源的重要問題。因此，我們當時採用了類似的機制，為我們的客戶提供更高的安全性，更換主電源和服務並創建環形圍欄，即與跟踪機制相關的問責制。

And we were very successful. It started out at $85 million back in 2011 and now it's a $250 million program on an annual basis. And so we're taking that same approach as we go through this case. Is that helpful, Julien?

我們非常成功。它在 2011 年以 8500 萬美元開始，現在是一個每年 2.5 億美元的計劃。因此，我們在處理此案例時採用相同的方法。這有用嗎，朱利安？

Yes, absolutely. So perhaps let me just make sure I'm hearing you right. This IRM, would that help address some lag related considerations, perhaps shift timing of future cases? Or is this principally about accounting and accountability back to the commission to just make sure the dollars and cents are getting spent in the right bucket?

是的，一點沒錯。所以也許讓我確保我沒聽錯。這個 IRM 是否有助於解決一些與滯後相關的問題，或許會改變未來案件的時間安排？或者這主要是關於會計和問責制回到佣金以確保美元和美分被花在正確的桶上？

The latter is the main focus. And then -- I mean over time, it could lead to extend out some rate cases. But our focus right now is just making sure there's the accountability piece and the ring fencing that our -- that the Chair has referenced in some of his public comments.

後者是主要焦點。然後 - 我的意思是隨著時間的推移，它可能會導致延長一些利率案件。但我們現在的重點只是確保有問責制部分和圍欄，我們的 - 主席在他的一些公開評論中提到了這一點。

Got it. Excellent. And then on veg management, just quickly, just with respect to that side of the equation, obviously, been a lot of focus on that front. Your commentary saying that you've increased it from 2020, helpful. Any further efforts in that regard? Again obviously, there seems to be an acute desire or need for that. How do you think about allocating even more in that direction at this time?

知道了。出色的。然後在蔬菜管理方面，很快，就等式的那一面而言，顯然，人們非常關注那方面。你的評論說你從 2020 年開始增加了它，很有幫助。在這方面有沒有進一步的努力？再次顯然，似乎有強烈的願望或需要。您如何看待此時向該方向分配更多資金？

Yes. So just to give you some real numbers on this, so about -- in 2020, it was around $50 million on an annual basis. And with support of the commission through different cases, we requested more to address this important aspect of reliability. We were up around $100 million on an annual basis. And there's a couple of components of it. And we're continuing to look at other opportunities to invest more in that. But we're also looking at the efficiency of that and so this is an area where we're using technology and artificial intelligence and analytics to be able to better predict where to utilize those dollars.

是的。所以只是給你一些關於這方面的真實數字，所以大約 - 在 2020 年，每年約為 5000 萬美元。在委員會通過不同案例的支持下，我們要求更多地解決可靠性這一重要方面。我們每年增加約 1 億美元。它有幾個組成部分。我們將繼續尋找其他機會在這方面進行更多投資。但我們也在研究它的效率，所以這是一個我們正在使用技術、人工智能和分析的領域，以便能夠更好地預測在哪裡使用這些美元。

And so we've -- our trees trimmed per mile has actually improved over the time period as well. And so that's helpful in the conversations we have with the commission. And then we'll continue to look for opportunities to look at other areas to invest and improve reliability, much like I said during my comments around the capital investments. I know Rejji wants to add to it as well.

所以我們 - 我們每英里修剪的樹木在這段時間內實際上也有所改善。這對我們與委員會的對話很有幫助。然後我們將繼續尋找機會，看看其他領域的投資和提高可靠性，就像我在評論資本投資時所說的那樣。我知道 Rejji 也想加入其中。

Yes, Julien, the only thing I would add is that when we think about the planning year and particularly years in which we have a little bit of upside or contingency, usually vegetation management is one of the first items that comes up on the FLEX list. And last year, in fact, when we were -- had a little bit of upside that was weather driven, we did about $5 million or so of FLEX related to vegetation management. So our actuals, even though we've budgeted around $100 million, as Garrick noted, for last year, I think our actuals were closer to $105 million, certainly over $100 million. And so FLEX is an opportunity for us to do additional vegetation management. And then remember, we have that voluntary refund mechanism, which is also a vehicle through which we can do incremental operating expenses.

是的，朱利安，我唯一要補充的是，當我們考慮規劃年，特別是我們有一點上行或意外事件的年份時，通常植被管理是 FLEX 列表中最先出現的項目之一.事實上，去年，當我們有一點受天氣驅動的好處時，我們做了大約 500 萬美元左右的與植被管理相關的 FLEX。因此，我們的實際情況，儘管正如加里克指出的那樣，去年我們的預算約為 1 億美元，但我認為我們的實際情況接近 1.05 億美元，當然超過 1 億美元。因此 FLEX 是我們進行額外植被管理的機會。然後記住，我們有自願退款機制，這也是我們可以增加運營費用的工具。

And so the current voluntary refund mechanism that we have outstanding, we targeted about $8 million towards additional vegetation management this year out of the $17 million that we allocated to the electric business. And as you know, we obviously pulled that lever in Q4 of last year for $22 million all in. And again, a portion of that will be allocated towards vegetation management, assuming we get commission approval. So that's the other mechanism we have as well.

因此，我們現有的自願退款機制，在我們分配給電力業務的 1700 萬美元中，我們今年的目標是大約 800 萬美元用於額外的植被管理。如您所知，我們顯然在去年第四季度以 2200 萬美元的價格全部投入了這一槓桿。同樣，假設我們獲得佣金批准，其中一部分將分配給植被管理。這也是我們擁有的另一種機制。

Next question today is a follow-up question from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.

今天的下一個問題是來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shar Pourreza 的後續問題。

Sorry, if I missed this but I just wanted to maybe just round out the storm discussion. I guess, do the storms -- do they -- will they lead to more resiliency spend? Is it going to increase CapEx? Or do you see offsets to CapEx? Are you going to sort of seek any kind of new mechanisms? I mean, some things are already in (inaudible) items. Would resiliency kind of get that similar treatment? I guess overall, just how do these storms kind of change your thoughts around the 5-year plan?

抱歉，如果我錯過了這個，但我只是想結束風暴討論。我想，風暴 - 它們 - 會導致更多的彈性支出嗎？它會增加資本支出嗎？或者您是否看到資本支出的抵消？您是否打算尋求任何一種新機制？我的意思是，有些東西已經在（聽不清）項目中。彈性會得到類似的待遇嗎？我想總的來說，這些風暴如何改變您對 5 年計劃的看法？

We, Shar -- so just to be really crystal clear on this, there's going to be more capital investment that's needed to improve reliability and resiliency and it's a reflection of an aging system with more severe weather. And I offered some of that in my prepared remarks but in this next electric rate case, we're proposing IRM or investment recovery mechanism has a tracker to show in greater certainty around our capital investments. And so that's the intent. We know we have to invest more. There's a number of ways to do that. One is our storm audit and focusing on that and getting alignment with the commission. And the other is the rate case and then the other one is the 5-year electric distribution investment plan.

我們，Shar——所以要非常清楚這一點，需要更多的資本投資來提高可靠性和彈性，這反映了一個老化的系統和更惡劣的天氣。我在準備好的發言中提供了其中一些內容，但在下一個電價案例中，我們提議 IRM 或投資回收機制有一個跟踪器，以顯示我們資本投資的更大確定性。這就是我們的意圖。我們知道我們必須投入更多。有很多方法可以做到這一點。一個是我們的風暴審計，並專注於此並與委員會保持一致。另一個是費率案例，另一個是 5 年配電投資計劃。

And so all of those different filings, all those different conversations lead to better alignment and a better support for our electric distribution investments. And so the long term is yes, in that. And this IRM mechanism, we believe, will create greater accountability with the commission. Chair Scripps has talked about ring fencing and then ultimately should lead to more recovery of those capital investments. Is that helpful, Shar?

因此，所有這些不同的文件，所有這些不同的對話都會導致更好的協調和對我們配電投資的更好支持。因此，從長遠來看是肯定的。我們相信，這種 IRM 機制將為委員會帶來更大的問責制。斯克里普斯主席談到了環形圍欄，最終應該會導致更多的資本投資回收。這有用嗎，莎爾？

Yes. And I guess the question is, should we be looking at these incremental investments as extending the runway of your growth or accretive to your growth?

是的。我想問題是，我們應該將這些增量投資視為擴展您的增長跑道還是增加您的增長？

We have a long runway and we invest -- we update our plan every year. But that 5-year plan includes about $6 billion of investments in the electric distribution system. That is up. That was up in this most recent plan. And we'll continue to look at as we model across the system, as there's additional investments, we'll continue to look at opportunities to invest more there. There's a long runway of opportunity just given the nature of our system.

我們有很長的跑道，我們進行投資——我們每年都會更新我們的計劃。但這個 5 年計劃包括約 60 億美元的配電系統投資。到此為止。這是最近的計劃。當我們在整個系統中建模時，我們將繼續關注，因為有額外的投資，我們將繼續尋找在那裡投資更多的機會。鑑於我們系統的性質，有很長的機會。

Got it. And then maybe just shifting to financing. Financing is -- it's been a bit of a tough headwind but interest rates seem to have moderated year-to-date. I guess how are you trending versus the embedded interest cost and plan in terms of '23 and maybe even opportunities for some cushion versus '24 since rates have come down versus your original expectations?

知道了。然後也許只是轉向融資。融資是 - 這有點艱難，但今年迄今為止利率似乎有所緩和。我猜你在 23 年和 24 年相比嵌入式利息成本和計劃的趨勢如何，甚至可能有一些緩衝的機會，因為利率已經下降到你最初的預期？

Yes, sure. This is Rejji. Great question. So as always and I think we had a word count of about 6 or 7 times in our prepared remarks, where we talked about planning conservatively. And that has been the case here. And so in our plan, we had pretty conservative assumptions at the operating company and that's where the vast majority of the issuances are this year. And we've been fortunate for the issuances we've done to date, to issue those at levels -- interest rate levels below what we haven't planned. So we're seeing upside and that's already flowing through our '23 numbers. And obviously, we'll benefit from that in '24 and beyond because we're issuing a long-dated paper.

是的，當然。這是雷吉。很好的問題。因此，一如既往，我認為我們在準備好的發言中有大約 6 或 7 次字數，我們在那裡談到了保守的計劃。這就是這裡的情況。因此，在我們的計劃中，我們對運營公司有相當保守的假設，這就是今年絕大多數發行的地方。我們很幸運，迄今為止我們已經完成了發行，發行水平低於我們沒有計劃的利率水平。所以我們看到了上行空間，這已經在我們的 23 年數字中體現出來了。顯然，我們將在 24 世紀及以後從中受益，因為我們正在發布一份過時的文件。

And so certainly, with interest rates moderating over the last several months, that creates additional opportunities. And that's what we'll be mindful of as we look at the final sort of 6, 7 months of the year and seeing if we can capitalize on, obviously, the accommodative capital markets that we're seeing right now.

當然，隨著過去幾個月利率的緩和，這創造了更多的機會。這就是我們在審視一年中最後 6、7 個月時要注意的事情，看看我們是否可以利用我們現在看到的寬鬆資本市場。

Next question today comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore.

今天的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Durgesh Chopra 系列。

Just maybe on the -- just continuing the discussion along storms, can you update us on the investigation that was started by the commission? My understanding is that they were looking for third-party consultant. So maybe just what's the latest there?

也許只是繼續討論風暴，你能告訴我們委員會開始的調查的最新情況嗎？我的理解是他們在尋找第三方顧問。那麼也許最新的是什麼？

Yes, broadly, from the storm audit perspective, so they started that last fall. And so they're in the process of selecting the vendor right now or the firm right now. We anticipate that to start in the September time frame. But I'll remind you the big picture perspective on the storm audit, is that, we're both aligned. That being the commission and CMS Energy aligned that we need to improve reliability. And so I really view this as an opportunity to be able to get further alignment on the needed investments in our system.

是的，從風暴審計的角度來看，從廣義上講，他們是在去年秋天開始的。因此，他們現在正在選擇供應商或公司。我們預計這將在 9 月的時間框架內開始。但我會提醒您風暴審計的大局觀，我們都是一致的。這是委員會和 CMS Energy 一致認為我們需要提高可靠性。因此，我真的認為這是一個機會，可以進一步調整我們系統所需的投資。

Again, a great example is undergrounding. We want to do more undergrounding. And if we look at our Midwest peers, they're around 35%, 40% underground. We're at 10%. It goes back to Shar's question. Is there opportunities for investment? There's a lot of them. And so we see that as important -- you can look at the EPRI, Electric Power Research Institute and they'll say undergrounding improves reliability, depending on if it's 3 phase or single phase by 50% to 90%. And so this is a great example where we need -- with the storm model, we can utilize this to get better alignment on immediate investments in the system.

同樣，一個很好的例子是地下化。我們想做更多的地下工作。如果我們看看我們的中西部同行，他們大約有 35%、40% 在地下。我們是 10%。這又回到了 Shar 的問題。有投資機會嗎？他們有很多。所以我們認為這很重要——你可以看看 EPRI，電力研究所，他們會說地下化提高了可靠性，這取決於它是三相還是單相，提高了 50% 到 90%。因此，這是我們需要的一個很好的例子——借助風暴模型，我們可以利用它來更好地調整對系統的即時投資。

And once we have that alignment, then again, we can move forward and get greater certainty around those investments. Does that help, Durgesh?

一旦我們達成一致，我們就可以繼續前進，並在這些投資方面獲得更大的確定性。這有幫助嗎，Durgesh？

It absolutely does. But you don't -- I guess the point is, I know you've said this before, you don't see anything punitive coming out of those audits as a result as they kind of go through your processes and other things and best practices?

確實如此。但你不知道——我想重點是，我知道你之前說過，你看不到這些審計會帶來任何懲罰性結果，因為它們會經歷你的流程和其他事情，而且最好做法？

I don't see anything punitive. No.

我看不出有什麼懲罰性的。不。

Got it. Okay. And then just 1 quick follow-up. I know this is small but you've got a decision on the voluntary refund mechanism earlier in the month. And I believe there were some disallowances. Can you talk to that and discuss that briefly?

知道了。好的。然後只需 1 次快速跟進。我知道這很小，但是您在本月早些時候已經就自願退款機製做出了決定。我相信有一些不允許。你能談談並簡要討論一下嗎？

Yes. I'll tag team it with Rejji. Just a context around this. These are pretty small dollars. And the bottom line, we have this option to file a voluntary refund mechanism. And we did that in 2022, the dollars are booked in 2022. But it's not a cake walk, like it's not assured that you're going to get approval, staff and the commissioners have a say in that, right? And they really telegraph the importance of incremental forestry and some other things with our customers in terms of helping out those low-income customers.

是的。我會和 Rejji 一起組隊。只是圍繞這個的上下文。這些都是相當小的美元。最重要的是，我們可以選擇提交自願退款機制。我們在 2022 年做到了這一點，美元在 2022 年入賬。但這不是小菜一碟，就像不能保證你會獲得批准一樣，工作人員和委員對此有發言權，對吧？他們確實向我們的客戶傳達了增量林業和其他一些事情在幫助那些低收入客戶方面的重要性。

And so they've really given us another opportunity at the bat. And we filed that here on April 21 to reflect the commissioners and staffs comments. And so I feel good about getting to a positive outcome on that and it's just navigating kind of the back and forth of the process, Durgesh.

所以他們真的給了我們另一個擊球機會。我們於 4 月 21 日在這裡提交了該文件，以反映委員和工作人員的意見。因此，我對在這方面取得積極成果感到很高興，這只是在過程中來回導航，Durgesh。

Yes. That's the essence of it, Durgesh. Just to give you some specifics on the numbers. So when we filed the VRM in late 2022, was for $22 million, $5 million of which was to support our vulnerable customers on the gas side of the business. That was fully approved by the commission and where there was some, I'd say, counseling guidance by the commission was on the balance of the $17 million that we allocated to the electric business. And to Garrick's comments, they wanted to see direct customer benefits. And so that's why we have recently, as of last Friday, requested service -- sorry, additional forestry or vegetation management as well as additional support for vulnerable customers.

是的。這就是它的本質，Durgesh。只是為了給你一些關於數字的細節。因此，當我們在 2022 年底提交 VRM 時，是 2200 萬美元，其中 500 萬美元用於支持我們在天然氣方面的弱勢客戶。這得到了委員會的完全批准，我想說，委員會的諮詢指導是在我們分配給電力業務的 1700 萬美元的餘額上。根據 Garrick 的評論，他們希望看到直接的客戶利益。這就是為什麼我們最近，截至上週五，請求服務——抱歉，額外的林業或植被管理以及對弱勢客戶的額外支持。

So that's how it's [cut]. Just that $17 million is subject to further approval and we're confident that we'll get this recent request over the finish line.

這就是它的方式 [cut]。只有這 1700 萬美元有待進一步批准，我們相信我們會在最後期限內完成這項最近的請求。

Next question today comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 David Arcaro。

Let's see, there's been some legislative bills drafted in the state with some more aggressive net zero targets. I was wondering if that might impact any of your thinking around the next time you address the IRP?

讓我們看看，該州已經起草了一些立法法案，其中包含一些更激進的淨零目標。我想知道這是否會影響您下次處理 IRP 時的想法？

Great question. Let me -- I think perspective is really important here because often in Lansing, just part of a bill, there's a lot of back and forth and there's media releases and then you just got to kind of clear the air and talk about it from a big picture perspective. And so I'll remind our listeners here that in the governor's first term, she introduced the Healthy Climate Plan. And in fact, one of the members on my direct staff was one of the stakeholders in that process and was involved in the review and kind of the language around it. And then I participated with a group of about 8 to 10 CEOs and the Governor in the review process.

很好的問題。讓我 - 我認為觀點在這裡非常重要，因為在蘭辛，經常只是法案的一部分，有很多來回和媒體發布，然後你只需要清除空氣並從一個角度談論它大局觀。因此，我要在這裡提醒我們的聽眾，在州長的第一個任期內，她推出了健康氣候計劃。事實上，我的一名直屬員工是該流程的利益相關者之一，並參與了審查和圍繞它的語言。然後我與大約 8 到 10 名首席執行官和州長一起參與了審查過程。

And so that -- her -- the Governor called the climate plan lines up really well with where we're headed from a state perspective but also lines up well with our current IRP and the like. Now the legislature has -- the Senate specifically, has introduced some new bills that are little bit more aggressive. But I want to remind everybody, this is the back and forth of Lansing.

因此——她——州長稱氣候計劃與我們從州的角度出發的方向非常吻合，但也與我們當前的 IRP 等相吻合。現在，立法機構——特別是參議院，已經提出了一些更具侵略性的新法案。但我要提醒大家，這是蘭辛的來回。

And that's the first starting point. That's the first valley you might say. And so we're going to continue to navigate that and move forward with that and manage that process. Ultimately, at the end of the day, if it requires something -- for us to do something sooner, we'll do that sooner. And that will mean more capital investment opportunities. But I want to let everyone know it's really manageable and, again, well aligned with where we're already headed.

這是第一個起點。那是你可能會說的第一個山谷。因此，我們將繼續導航並推進並管理該流程。最終，在一天結束時，如果它需要一些東西——讓我們更快地做某事，我們會更快地做。這將意味著更多的資本投資機會。但我想讓每個人都知道它確實是可管理的，並且再次與我們已經前進的方向保持一致。

Got you. That's helpful. And could you also touch on just what you're seeing in terms of weather normal volumes -- the sales volumes and how that's lining up with your expectations so far?

明白了這很有幫助。您能否也談談您在天氣正常銷量方面所看到的情況——銷量以及到目前為止與您的預期相符的情況？

David, this is Rejji. Appreciate the question. Yes, weather normalized trends, I will admit, we were scratching our heads a little bit at the trends that we saw. And just for everyone's benefit, we saw residential about 2.5 -- a little over 2.5% off versus Q1 of 2022. Commercial, a little over 3.5% off versus Q1 of 2022. Industrial was flat excluding 1 large, low-margin customer. And then total was down about a little over 2.5% versus Q1 of last year. And I would say it's really early days.

大衛，這是雷吉。感謝這個問題。是的，天氣使趨勢正常化，我承認，我們對所看到的趨勢有些摸不著頭腦。為了每個人的利益，我們看到住宅約為 2.5 - 與 2022 年第一季度相比略高於 2.5%。商業，與 2022 年第一季度相比略高於 3.5%。工業持平，不包括 1 個大型低利潤客戶。然後與去年第一季度相比，總量下降了 2.5% 以上。我會說現在還為時尚早。

We are still digging into the data. I would just start by saying, as hard as our sales forecasting team works, weather normalized math is a combination of art and science. And when you see, I'd say, dramatic weather like we saw in Q1 of last year, where it was extremely cold and then a pretty warm winter as we noted earlier, Q1 of this year, you can see a good degree of imprecision in those calculations.

我們仍在挖掘數據。我只想說，儘管我們的銷售預測團隊努力工作，但天氣歸一化數學是藝術與科學的結合。當你看到，我會說，像我們在去年第一季度看到的戲劇性天氣，那裡非常寒冷，然後是我們之前提到的非常溫暖的冬天，今年第一季度，你可以看到很大程度的不精確在那些計算中。

And so I say -- I'd like to say, we're looking at it with a little bit of a skeptical eye because the reality is we're still seeing very strong economic indicators in the service territory. Our customer accounts specifically for commercial, were up almost 0.5% -- over 0.5% to almost 1 point across the electric and gas businesses, residential customer accounts are still up. And while we have built into our guidance, that continued return to work, we're still seeing a good level of really not every company in Michigan at this point has 4, 5 days in the office. And so we still think as we get into the summer months, we may see some of that favorable mix we've seen in the past.

所以我說——我想說，我們正在以懷疑的眼光看待它，因為現實是我們在服務領域仍然看到非常強勁的經濟指標。我們的商業客戶賬戶增長了近 0.5%——電力和天然氣業務增長超過 0.5% 至近 1 個百分點，住宅客戶賬戶仍在增長。雖然我們已經將繼續恢復工作納入我們的指導方針，但我們仍然看到一個很好的水平，實際上並不是密歇根州的每家公司此時都有 4、5 天在辦公室工作。因此，我們仍然認為，當我們進入夏季時，我們可能會看到過去看到的一些有利組合。

And so I would say early days, there's probably a little bit of noise in the data. And I'll just say on the industrial side, we were flat again versus where we were last year but we couldn't have a more robust economic development pipeline borne out of a lot of the constructive federal legislation that's been passed over the 18 months. And we continue to look at our trends versus pre-pandemic and across every customer class we're doing as well, if not better, than what we were doing pre-pandemic, particularly when you take into account our energy efficiency programs, which effectively reduced our load year-over-year by 2%.

所以我想說早期，數據中可能有一點噪音。我只想說，在工業方面，我們再次與去年持平，但我們無法通過 18 個月來通過的許多建設性聯邦立法來支持更強勁的經濟發展渠道.我們將繼續關注我們的趨勢與大流行前的趨勢，以及我們在每個客戶類別中所做的與大流行前相比，如果不是更好的話，尤其是當你考慮到我們的能效計劃時，這有效地我們的負載同比減少了 2%。

And so, again, I don't think what you're seeing in Q1 and in the data is indicative of the economic conditions in Michigan. I think it's just more a weather-normalized math versus anything else.

因此，我再次認為，您在第一季度和數據中看到的並不代表密歇根州的經濟狀況。我認為這更像是一種天氣歸一化數學而不是其他任何東西。

Next question today comes from the line of Michael Sullivan from Wolfe Research.

今天的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Michael Sullivan。

You guys answered a lot here. I just had a couple of small follow-ups on what's already been discussed. So just on the undergrounding, can you maybe just give us a sense on what the long-term target is there? How much of the system you are looking underground and over what period of time you'd like to get there?

你們在這裡回答了很多。我只是對已經討論過的內容進行了一些小的跟進。那麼就地下化而言，您能否讓我們了解一下那裡的長期目標是什麼？您在地下尋找多少系統以及您希望在多長時間內到達那裡？

Great question. And it's important to recognize we're not trying to underground the entire system and it's really about selective or sometimes I've used the word strategic undergrounding. And again, we know from EPRI research across a number of utilities, you're in a 50% to 90% improvement, whether it's 3 phase or single phase. And so ideally, we're trying to get to a point where we can do 400 miles a year. And then really over a 10-year period, kind of increment that up.

很好的問題。重要的是要認識到我們並不是要將整個系統置於地下，這實際上是有選擇性的，或者有時我使用了戰略地下化這個詞。再一次，我們從 EPRI 對許多公用事業公司的研究中了解到，無論是三相還是單相，您都可以提高 50% 到 90%。所以理想情況下，我們正在努力達到每年可以行駛 400 英里的地步。然後真的在 10 年的時間裡，有點增加。

So I would say the range of around 10,000 miles is really what we're trying to get to overall. It's not going to occur overnight but that does provide a nice opportunity to enhance the reliability and resilience of our system and provide a nice opportunity from a capital investment standpoint.

所以我想說大約 10,000 英里的範圍確實是我們想要達到的總體目標。它不會在一夜之間發生，但這確實提供了一個很好的機會來增強我們系統的可靠性和彈性，並從資本投資的角度提供了一個很好的機會。

Okay. Very helpful. And then kind of a similar question just following up on the IRM. I think the context you gave on the gas side was helpful in terms of where it started and where it's gotten to. Can you maybe frame that on the electric side? And I know you haven't officially filed the next case yet but just kind of where that could start and ultimately go?

好的。很有幫助。然後是關於 IRM 的類似問題。我認為你在天然氣方面給出的背景在它開始的地方和它到達的地方方面很有幫助。你可以在電氣方面構建它嗎？而且我知道你還沒有正式提交下一個案例，但只是可以從哪裡開始並最終去向？

So we're being very thoughtful about our starting point and we see it as an opportunity to grow from there. But our first value will be in the $100 million range for an IRM and then we'll grow it from there.

所以我們對我們的起點非常深思熟慮，我們認為這是一個從那裡發展的機會。但我們的第一個價值將在 1 億美元的 IRM 範圍內，然後我們將從那裡增長它。

The next question today comes from the line of Andrew Weisel from Scotiabank.

今天的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Andrew Weisel。

Let me first say congratulations again for selling EnerBank. I'm very glad we're not spending 3/4 of the call talking about that.

首先讓我再次祝賀您出售 EnerBank。我很高興我們沒有花費 3/4 的電話討論這個問題。

I'm glad too. Thank you.

我也很高興。謝謝。

Yes. First question, just a follow-up on undergrounding. So you talked about the 50% to 90% operational improvement estimate from EPRI. Do you have a rough sense of rule of thumb, the cost difference versus traditional above ground (inaudible) what a breakeven might look like?

是的。第一個問題，只是地下的後續問題。所以你談到了 EPRI 的 50% 到 90% 的運營改進估計。您是否有粗略的經驗法則，成本差異與傳統地上（聽不清）盈虧平衡可能是什麼樣子？

So what are the things -- we're doing some -- we've done a lot of -- we shouldn't say a lot but we're doing a lot of work with our undergrounding crews right now. And that price for undergrounding, particularly on a single phase, is approaching the price of overhead. It's not quite there yet but close. And so we're in the range on single phase maybe like $250,000 a mile for undergrounding. Again, it's directional bore. And give or take, it depends on the conditions of the soil and homes and other things but that's roughly the number.

那麼事情是什麼——我們正在做一些——我們已經做了很多——我們不應該說太多，但我們現在正在與我們的地下工作人員一起做很多工作。地下的價格，特別是單相的，已經接近架空價格。還沒有到那一步，但已經很近了。所以我們在單相的範圍內可能像每英里 250,000 美元用於地下工程。同樣，它是定向鑽孔。給予或索取，這取決於土壤和房屋的條件以及其他因素，但這是大致的數字。

And so they're really quite comparable or growing comparable in terms of that price point. And so again, we've got pretty fertile soils. We have pretty soft soils. And so we're not in rock and some of those things, which helps from a cost perspective.

因此，就該價格點而言，它們確實具有可比性或可比性。同樣，我們擁有非常肥沃的土壤。我們有非常柔軟的土壤。所以我們不在搖滾和其中一些事情中，這從成本的角度來看是有幫助的。

Yes, Andrew, the only thing I would add to Garrick's comments, when you think -- the only thing I would add to Garrick's comments, when you think about the cost benefit and the potential opportunity, if you look at the last few years of our vegetation management plus our service restoration, we're spending on average based on actuals about $200-plus million per year across those 2 cost categories. And so the opportunity would be over time with those investments in underground and to potentially reduce that overall cost bucket.

是的，安德魯，我唯一要添加到 Garrick 的評論中，當你認為 - 當你考慮成本收益和潛在機會時，我唯一要添加到 Garrick 的評論中，如果你看看過去幾年的我們的植被管理加上我們的服務恢復，根據實際情況，我們每年在這兩個成本類別中平均花費約 200 多萬美元。因此，隨著時間的推移，在地下進行這些投資並有可能降低總體成本的機會將隨之而來。

And so that's how we would think about the cost benefit in addition to some of the points Garrick raised earlier.

因此，除了 Garrick 之前提出的一些觀點之外，這就是我們考慮成本效益的方式。

Okay. Great. Next one, are you able to tell what's the deferred fuel cost balances now versus at year-end?

好的。偉大的。下一個，你能說出現在和年底的遞延燃料成本餘額是多少嗎？

Yes, I'll take a stab at that, Andrew and we can follow up with more precision on -- offline, if needed. Where we ended the year, we had -- well, goodness, end of 2022, just over $800 million across our supply costs in the electric side and then gas inventories on the gas side of the business. So call it about a $450 million, $400-ish million split, so it's $850 million. We started to chip away at that. Obviously, we have very strong cost recovery mechanisms in Michigan, which have been kind of tried and true since the mid-'80s. And so we do expect on the gas side to recover the vast majority of that over the course of this fiscal year.

是的，我會嘗試一下，安德魯，如果需要，我們可以在離線狀態下更精確地跟進。在我們年底的地方，我們有 - 好吧，天哪，到 2022 年底，我們在電力方面的供應成本略高於 8 億美元，然後在業務的天然氣方面的天然氣庫存。所以稱之為大約 4.5 億美元，4 億美元左右的拆分，所以它是 8.5 億美元。我們開始努力解決這個問題。顯然，我們在密歇根州擁有非常強大的成本回收機制，自 80 年代中期以來，這種機制一直在嘗試和驗證。因此，我們確實預計在本財年期間，天然氣方面將恢復其中的絕大部分。

And then for electric, we did apply a bit of elegance to a recovery process for power supply cost. And so of the $450 million we had coming due in January, we filed with the commission a plan to recover that over a 3-year span. So effectively $150 million per year through 2025. And just given the current environment, we thought that, that was the right thing to do to alleviate the cost burden for customers. And we also thought our balance sheet could accommodate it as well.

然後對於電力，我們確實在電力供應成本的回收過程中應用了一些優雅。因此，在 1 月份到期的 4.5 億美元中，我們向委員會提交了一份計劃，以在 3 年的時間內收回這筆款項。到 2025 年，實際上每年 1.5 億美元。考慮到當前的環境，我們認為這是減輕客戶成本負擔的正確做法。而且我們還認為我們的資產負債表也可以容納它。

And it's also the way we structured it, just that the fact that we're no longer going to be recovering those costs through working capital now it's a regulatory asset, it's actually credit accretive based on how Moody's calculates these -- their FFO. And so for a variety of reasons, it was a nice opportunity and we've exercised it in the first quarter.

這也是我們構建它的方式，只是事實上我們不再通過營運資金來收回這些成本，現在它是一種監管資產，它實際上是基於穆迪計算這些的信用增值 - 他們的 FFO。因此，出於各種原因，這是一個很好的機會，我們已經在第一季度進行了練習。

Okay. Good. One quick follow-up, if I may. Holtec, I know there's not a whole lot new for you to announce but can you just give an updated thought on the timing of potential updates there with the state versus the timing of your next IRP, which I believe is likely to come next year.

好的。好的。一個快速跟進，如果可以的話。 Holtec，我知道你沒有太多新消息要宣布，但你能否就潛在更新的時間與你的下一個 IRP 的時間相比給出一個更新的想法，我相信下一個 IRP 可能會在明年發布。

So we do know -- I mean, it's public information that Holtec, who is responsible for decommissioning the facility and has the operating rights there on the facility, has requested federal funding. They've also requested state funding within this budget, which is being worked right now, state budget. So that will be figured out this May, June, July time frame. They've asked $300 million in the state budget. Again, this is public information.

所以我們確實知道 - 我的意思是，負責該設施退役並擁有該設施運營權的 Holtec 已申請聯邦資金，這是公開信息。他們還要求在該預算內提供國家資金，該預算目前正在實施，即國家預算。所以這將在今年 5 月、6 月、7 月的時間框架內解決。他們要求在國家預算中投入 3 億美元。同樣，這是公開信息。

What I would expect to see from this is a lower cost for power. We've had Palisades, it's been expensive PPA, one would expect it to be lower given all the tax dollars that are applied there. And that power should flow into Michigan. So those are important components of it. So we expect low-cost power, as I've said historically and we're open to consider a PPA with the financial compensation mechanism. But at this point, we got a good IRP in place. And if that comes to fruition, it will shape our next IRP. But it's really too soon to tell on how it would shape upcoming IRPs.

我希望從中看到的是更低的電力成本。我們有 Palisades，它是昂貴的 PPA，考慮到那裡應用的所有稅金，人們預計它會更低。這種力量應該流入密歇根。所以這些是它的重要組成部分。所以我們期待低成本的電力，正如我過去所說的那樣，我們願意考慮具有經濟補償機制的購電協議。但在這一點上，我們得到了一個很好的 IRP。如果這實現了，它將影響我們的下一個 IRP。但現在就斷言它將如何影響即將到來的 IRP 還為時過早。

Okay. I guess the more specific question was, would the timing of your IRP potentially be influenced by the timing of Palisades resolution?

好的。我想更具體的問題是，您的 IRP 的時間是否可能會受到 Palisades 決議時間的影響？

That's too hard to tell. And frankly, this -- bringing a nuclear plant back has -- to my knowledge, has not been done. And so there's a lot of hurdles and a lot of unknowns there. I'm not saying it can't happen but there's just a lot of unknowns. And so it's difficult to say whether it will have an impact or not on our next IRP.

這太難說了。坦率地說，據我所知，恢復核電站還沒有完成。所以那裡有很多障礙和很多未知數。我並不是說這不可能發生，但還有很多未知數。因此很難說它是否會對我們的下一個 IRP 產生影響。

Next question today comes from the line of Alex Mortimer from Mizuho.

今天的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Alex Mortimer。

And so given that everyone in the industry is kind of always walking the tightrope between reliability and then customer bill impact, can you provide sort of any thoughts on what the tone of the commission has been with regards to the undergrounding? Is this something that, that they've suggested or something you're sort of bringing to them unprompted?

因此，鑑於行業中的每個人都總是在可靠性和客戶賬單影響之間走鋼絲，您能否就委員會對地下埋藏的基調提出任何想法？這是他們建議的，還是你主動給他們的？

There's been a lot of conversations and there will continue to be more conversations on this important work of undergrounding. We'll be doing some additional piloting within the context of this proposed electric rate case. And then we'll continue to look at other opportunities to build out on that. But going back to the storm audit, this is really our opportunity to get further alignment with the commission on the important investments that need to be made to improve reliability and resiliency. And I would suggest that both the commission, staff and the company and all our coworkers here, too, are really well aligned on ensuring that we're improving reliability and resiliency.

關於這項重要的地下工作，已經進行了很多對話，而且還會繼續進行更多的對話。我們將在這個擬議的電費案例的背景下進行一些額外的試點。然後我們將繼續尋找其他機會，以此為基礎。但回到風暴審計，這確實是我們與委員會就提高可靠性和彈性所需的重要投資進一步保持一致的機會。我建議委員會、員工和公司以及我們這裡的所有同事也非常一致地確保我們正在提高可靠性和彈性。

You talked about the affordability piece as well. And that's clearly at the top of mind. Part of that is, we leverage the CE Way, not only to improve our operations and maintenance expense but we utilize it to improve capital efficiency. So that dollar goes further. Just like I shared earlier, we continue to look at opportunities to bring the cost down of undergrounding and frankly, all our capital work.

你也談到了負擔能力方面的問題。這顯然是最重要的。其中一部分是，我們利用 CE Way，不僅可以改善我們的運營和維護費用，還可以利用它來提高資本效率。所以美元走得更遠。就像我之前分享的那樣，我們繼續尋找機會降低地下開採成本，坦率地說，我們所有的資本工作。

Understood. And just a little bit more color on sort of the time line of what this would look at or what this would look like and then potentially the dollar amount of upside to the CapEx plan? And should we think of this as getting you kind of into the high 7s, towards 8% of your long-term guidance? Or is this more of extending the 7% out beyond sort of where it is currently?

明白了。在時間線上會看到什麼或看起來會是什麼樣子，然後是資本支出計劃的潛在上行美元數額，只是多了一點顏色？我們是否應該將此視為讓您進入高 7，達到您長期指導的 8%？或者這更多的是將 7% 擴展到目前的水平之外？

So when we introduced in Q4 call, we introduced our $15.5 billion capital investment plan. And that had more electric distribution, electric related spend in that plan was like $6.1 billion of that, which was an increase. We're not changing our capital plan at this point because we increased it just here in the last call. That may change over time because we look at that capital plan every year. And as I've shared, there's a long runway of opportunity there. And so as we get certainty around these investments, as we build out that 5-year electric distribution plan, that will be an opportunity to look at the longer-term capital piece.

因此，當我們在第四季度電話會議上介紹時，我們介紹了 155 億美元的資本投資計劃。那有更多的配電，該計劃中與電力相關的支出大約是其中的 61 億美元，這是一個增長。我們目前沒有改變我們的資本計劃，因為我們在上次電話會議中只是在這裡增加了它。這可能會隨著時間的推移而改變，因為我們每年都會查看該資本計劃。正如我所分享的，那裡有很長的機會。因此，當我們確定這些投資時，在我們制定 5 年配電計劃時，這將是一個審視長期資本的機會。

Now going back to the growth piece. 6% to 8%, we said confidence towards the high end and that puts it in that range of 7% to 8%. Historically, I've said this, I'll say it again, there are no sugar highs and we go for consistency year after year. And so that's -- we compound of -- actually that's the quality of earnings that we aim for and we will continue to repeat year after year, because we know that's what our investors value.

現在回到增長部分。 6% 到 8%，我們說的是對高端的信心，這使它處於 7% 到 8% 的範圍內。從歷史上看，我已經說過，我會再說一遍，沒有高糖，我們年復一年地追求一致性。所以這就是——我們的複合——實際上這就是我們追求的盈利質量，我們將年復一年地繼續重複，因為我們知道這就是我們的投資者所看重的。

And congrats again on a great quarter.

再次祝賀一個偉大的季度。

The next question today comes from the line of Ross Fowler from UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Ross Fowler。

So just a couple for me here. One, the first part is, just any commentary on Commissioner Phillips resignation and time line for replacement, thoughts on replacement. And then Garrick, not to beat the dead horse here but you came into the year -- on my quick math, it's about $75 million of cost contingency to offset the sort of weather normalization you knew you were going to have to deal with. Now Garrick, as you went through those 5 things, you've priced that up to about $200 million and around numbers. So there's another $125 million or so coming in. And clearly, you thought about (inaudible) bucket is onetime and what's sort of more permanent.

所以這裡對我來說只是一對。首先，第一部分是關於菲利普斯專員辭職的任何評論和更換時間表，關於更換的想法。然後加里克，不是為了打敗這裡的死馬，而是你進入了這一年——根據我的快速計算，大約有 7500 萬美元的成本應急費用來抵消你知道你將不得不應對的那種天氣正常化。現在加里克，當你經歷這 5 件事時，你已經將其定價高達 2 億美元左右。所以還有 1.25 億美元左右的收入。很明顯，你認為（聽不清）桶是一次性的，什麼是更永久的。

Maybe can you contextualize for us how conversations with the commission has gone around what's onetime cost improvement, what's permanent improvement in the past, so you kind of look to the future as to how those negotiations go because clearly, there can be some conversation around that as you look at the cost reduction?

也許你能為我們介紹一下與委員會的對話是如何圍繞什麼是一次性成本改進，什麼是過去的永久改進，所以你可以展望未來，看看這些談判的進展情況，因為很明顯，可以圍繞這個進行一些對話當你看到成本降低時？

Let me start with Tremaine Phillips. And it was -- I have great respect for Tremaine. He was a great commissioner and we saw constructive outcomes. And he left a legacy at the commission and I'd put it into 3 areas. One, he really moved electric vehicles in the state. And he was forward-thinking and progressive about that work. And then in addition to that, there was a lot of work on grid monetization and optimization of the grid that he helped position within the commission. And the third piece, and this is -- have really played out nicely over the course of the pandemic is, he was laser-focused on low income and vulnerable customers.

讓我從 Tremaine Phillips 開始。這是——我非常尊重 Tremaine。他是一位偉大的專員，我們看到了建設性的成果。他在委員會留下了一筆遺產，我將其分為 3 個領域。第一，他真的在該州移動了電動汽車。他對這項工作具有前瞻性和進步性。除此之外，還有很多關於網格貨幣化和網格優化的工作，他幫助在委員會中定位。第三點，也就是——在大流行病的整個過程中確實發揮了很好的作用，他非常專注於低收入和弱勢客戶。

And I give him credit, as well as the commission for the work -- we have the lowest bad debt levels across the industry. And so we've taken care of our low-income customers during some of the toughest times during this pandemic. And so much of that credit goes to Tremaine Phillips. But I'll also refer you to -- he's got a public statement out there. He's successful but so is his wife, is successful. And his wife has went after new opportunities and so many thanks and congratulations to both Tremaine, his wife and his family as they pursue different career opportunities.

我相信他，也相信他的工作佣金——我們的壞賬水平在整個行業中是最低的。因此，我們在這場大流行期間的一些最艱難時期照顧了我們的低收入客戶。其中很大一部分歸功於 Tremaine Phillips。但我也會向你推薦——他有一份公開聲明。他很成功，但他的妻子也很成功。他的妻子也在尋找新的機會，非常感謝和祝賀 Tremaine、他的妻子和他的家人，因為他們正在尋求不同的職業機會。

This commission has functioned well in the past with 2 commissioners. And we've got 2 constructive, experienced commissioners in place. And so I'm not worried about the interim at all. And if you look historically as well as with this governor, Governor Whitmer here, they've been very thoughtful about the placement of commissioners and found experienced and well-suited commissioners to continue the constructive environment, regulatory environment in Michigan. We do know that the Governor is out -- the Governor's staff is out looking for a new commissioner. That process is underway but we don't have a deadline or a date out there on when that will take place. But again, I have confidence in our Governor to continue the long-standing tradition of this jurisdiction and a constructive jurisdiction.

該委員會過去運作良好，有 2 名委員。我們有 2 位建設性的、經驗豐富的專員。所以我根本不擔心過渡期。如果你從歷史上看，以及這位州長，惠特默州長，他們對委員的安置非常周到，並找到了經驗豐富且非常適合的委員來繼續密歇根州的建設性環境和監管環境。我們確實知道州長不在了——州長的工作人員正在尋找新的專員。該過程正在進行中，但我們沒有最後期限或具體日期。但是，我再次相信我們的州長能夠延續該司法管轄區的悠久傳統和建設性司法管轄區。

I'm going to pass the call over to Rejji here to talk a little bit about the financial information to your second part of your question.

我將把電話轉給 Rejji 來談談你問題第二部分的財務信息。

Ross, I appreciate the question. So just one last thing on Tremaine and it's a bit of an advertisement for the Michigan legislative and regulatory construct. I mean, part of the reason why it's really wonderful to have staggered terms for your commissioners is because when you do have turnover on an unexpected basis, you still have that continuity of leadership. And so we obviously have Chair Scripps and Commissioner Peretick still in the seat. And they obviously have a policy -- or their philosophies are aligned with the governor's policies, I should say, around healthy climate. And so there's that nice continuity there and they have a quorum with 2. And so we'll still carry on and I'm sure they'll find a suitable replacement for Commissioner Phillips when the time is right.

羅斯，我很欣賞這個問題。因此，關於 Tremaine 的最後一件事是密歇根立法和監管結構的一點廣告。我的意思是，讓你的專員交錯任期真的很棒，部分原因是因為當你確實有意想不到的人事變動時，你仍然有領導的連續性。因此，我們顯然仍然有 Scripps 主席和 Peretick 專員。他們顯然有一項政策——或者他們的理念與州長的政策一致，我應該說，圍繞健康氣候。所以那裡有很好的連續性，他們的法定人數是 2。所以我們仍然會繼續，我相信他們會在適當的時候找到合適的人選來替代菲利普斯專員。

With respect to your question around the cost opportunities, let me just be very clear, I'll try to get at the numbers you specified as best I can. And if I miss anything, please feel free to follow up with a question. But if you think about our guidance at the beginning of the year on our Q4 call, we effectively said, as always, we plan for normal weather. And we assume the level of cost productivity in our plan. And so we were showing about $0.04 per share of positive variance related to cost savings. And then we had some estimated opportunities as a result of the warm weather we put to work in 2022 in Q4 specifically with the voluntary refund mechanism and some of the pull aheads and opportunities we exercise in the context of the electric rate case settlement.

關於你關於成本機會的問題，讓我非常清楚，我會盡力達到你指定的數字。如果我遺漏了什麼，請隨時跟進一個問題。但是，如果您在今年年初的第四季度電話會議上考慮我們的指導意見，我們實際上一如既往地表示，我們計劃應對正常天氣。我們假設我們計劃中的成本生產率水平。因此，我們顯示與成本節約相關的每股正方差約為 0.04 美元。然後，由於我們在 2022 年第四季度投入使用的溫暖天氣，我們有一些估計的機會，特別是自願退款機制以及我們在電費案件解決的背景下行使的一些提前和機會。

And so that equated to about $0.19 to $0.25 of opportunity or positive variance in the original guidance. And so as you fast forward to Q1 and you look at the waterfall we're showing today, what's really changed is that we've now seen $0.21 or just over $80 million pretax in the form of weather (inaudible) and that's what we're offsetting and solving for in the form of cost productivity as well as in that sort of catch-all bucket around parent-related opportunities. And so what we're effectively saying is that there is $80 million of offsets that we need to go identify and when we look at our track record and we're not trying to be modest around that, we feel very good about our ability to achieve that. And so when you think about 2020, during the pandemic, we took out $100 million.

因此，這相當於原始指導中約 0.19 美元至 0.25 美元的機會或正方差。因此，當您快進到第一季度並查看我們今天展示的瀑佈時，真正改變的是我們現在已經看到 0.21 美元或剛剛超過 8000 萬美元的天氣形式的稅前（聽不清），這就是我們'以成本生產率的形式以及圍繞與父母相關的機會的那種包羅萬象的方式重新抵消和解決。因此，我們實際上要說的是，我們需要確定 8000 萬美元的補償，當我們查看我們的業績記錄時，我們並不想對此保持謙虛，我們對自己的能力感到非常滿意做到這一點。所以當你想到 2020 年，在大流行期間，我們拿出了 1 億美元。

And when you think about sustainable savings versus one-timers, about 50% of that in 2020 was in the form of the CE Way, and that's what will flow through rates. And that's what customers will benefit from. There are one-timers that sometimes we do have to resurrect some of those old plays. And so those are sort of opportunities that probably don't get incorporated into rates because you need to execute on those in subsequent years. But my working assumption is we'll see probably about a good portion of the opportunities we're trying to execute on and offset this $0.20 or $0.20-plus of weather in the form of CE Way as well as those opportunities Garrick noted earlier in the call.

當你考慮可持續儲蓄與一次性儲蓄時，2020 年大約 50% 的儲蓄是以 CE Way 的形式出現的，而這將通過利率來實現。這就是客戶將從中受益的。有一些一次性的，有時我們確實不得不復活一些那些老戲。因此，這些機會可能不會納入費率，因為您需要在隨後的幾年中執行這些機會。但我的工作假設是，我們可能會看到我們試圖執行的大部分機會，並以 CE Way 的形式抵消這 0.20 美元或 0.20 美元以上的天氣，以及 Garrick 早些時候在稱呼。

So whether it's hiring freezes, whether it's external hiring type decisions around contractors and consultants, we will take all of those opportunities as part of this portfolio savings to offset that, call it, $80-plus million of weather. So that's how we think about it. That's how we'll go get it. And again, a good portion should be passed on to customers but some will be one-timers and those are the ones that you don't necessarily repeat. Is that helpful?

因此，無論是招聘凍結，還是圍繞承包商和顧問的外部招聘類型決策，我們都將把所有這些機會作為該投資組合節省的一部分，以抵消 80 多萬美元的天氣影響。這就是我們的想法。這就是我們將要得到它的方式。同樣，應該將很大一部分傳遞給客戶，但有些將是一次性的，而這些是您不一定要重複的。這有幫助嗎？

Yes, that's helpful, Rejji. I guess in the past, you've been able to have that discussion with the commission. It's really onetime and was permanent, in the context of any debate around that, right? As you look at some of that CE Way money and then some of the sort of hiring freeze stuff, I guess the risk from my perspective is the commission would say, well, you have a bunch of onetime stuff in there and some of that permanent, can we get some customer bill relief out of that more permanent basis. But maybe contextualize that risk around discussions you've had about that in the past and their understanding of what's onetime and what's not.

是的，這很有幫助，Rejji。我想在過去，你已經能夠與委員會進行討論。在圍繞它的任何辯論中，它真的是一次性的，而且是永久性的，對吧？當你看到一些 CE Way 的錢，然後是一些招聘凍結的東西時，我想從我的角度來看，風險是委員會會說，好吧，你那裡有一堆一次性的東西，還有一些是永久性的，我們能否從更永久的基礎上獲得一些客戶賬單減免。但是，也許可以將您過去就此進行的討論以及他們對一次性和非一次性的理解的風險結合起來。

Yes. To be clear, this is the benefit of filing annual cases because as we realize those savings, which again, when they're generated the CE Way, they are sustainable, we will pass them on in subsequent cases or as part of the adjudicated process. Because when we file rebuttal, we start to bake in some of those savings midstream. And so there is a pretty transparent dialogue with the commission staff and other interveners about the opportunities we think are sustainable, and that's what we incorporate into our cases. And again, that's the benefit of being an annual filer.

是的。需要明確的是，這是提交年度案件的好處，因為當我們意識到這些節省時，當它們以 CE 方式產生時，它們是可持續的，我們將在後續案件中或作為裁決過程的一部分傳遞它們.因為當我們提出反駁意見時，我們就開始在中途節省一些費用。因此，與委員會工作人員和其他干預者就我們認為可持續的機會進行了非常透明的對話，這就是我們納入案例的內容。再一次，這就是成為年度申報人的好處。

Fantastic. So I'm with you on the $80 million in cost cuts and then there's like an incremental $50 million between the sort of year-end call back in this deck and that other usage category kind of went through in the answer to Julien's question.

極好的。所以我同意你削減 8000 萬美元的成本，然後在這個平台上的年終回訪和回答 Julien 問題的其他使用類別之間增加了 5000 萬美元。

Yes. The only other thing I'll mention, just to be clear, there is a bit of geography, you have to be mindful of as well. So when we say parent-related savings, whether they're tax planning or financing efficiency, some of that is at the holding company, in which case, it wouldn't be incorporated into an adjudicated process because they're not at the opco level. So some of those will directly go to shareholders. And so I think that's also very clear to the commission and other stakeholders in the context of a rate case.

是的。我要提到的唯一一件事是，為了清楚起見，還有一點地理因素，你也必須注意這一點。因此，當我們說與母公司相關的儲蓄時，無論是稅務規劃還是融資效率，其中一些是在控股公司，在這種情況下，它不會被納入裁定流程，因為它們不在 opco等級。所以其中一些將直接給股東。因此，我認為在利率案件的背景下，委員會和其他利益相關者也非常清楚這一點。

No additional questions waiting at this time. So I'd like to pass the call back over to Mr. Garrick Rochow for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題等待。因此，我想將電話轉回給 Garrick Rochow 先生，聽取任何結束語。

Thanks, Bailey. I'd like to thank you for joining us today. We'll see you on the road soon. Take care and stay safe.

謝謝，貝利。我要感謝你今天加入我們。我們很快就會在路上見到你。保重並保持安全。

This concludes today's conference. We thank everyone for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與。