CMS能源 (CMS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the CMS Energy 2022 Year-end Results Call. The earnings news release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. This call is being recorded.

各位早上好，歡迎來到 CMS Energy 2022 年終業績電話會議。今天早些時候發布的收益新聞稿和本次網絡廣播中使用的演示文稿可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分獲取。此通話正在錄音中。

(Operator Instructions) Just a reminder, there will be a rebroadcast of this conference call today beginning at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time running through February 9. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Sri Maddipati, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations and Finance.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，今天中午 12:00 將重播此電話會議。東部時間一直持續到 2 月 9 日。該演示文稿也進行網絡廣播，可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分獲取。此時，我想將電話轉給財務主管兼投資者關係和財務副總裁 Sri Maddipati 先生。

Thank you, Adam. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me are Garrick Rochow, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rejji Hayes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding the risks and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix and posted on our website.

謝謝你，亞當。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。和我一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Garrick Rochow；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rejji Hayes。本演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，了解有關可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的風險和其他因素的更多信息。本演示文稿還包括非 GAAP 措施。這些措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節包含在附錄中並發佈在我們的網站上。

Now I'll turn the call over to Garrick.

現在我會把電話轉給加里克。

Thank you, Sri, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. 2022, an outstanding year at CMS Energy, both operationally and financially. And even more than that, 2022 marks the 20th year CMS Energy has consistently delivered industry-leading financial performance. Many of you have been on this journey with us, and I appreciate you, and I thank you. You see us put our words into action.

謝謝你，Sri，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。 2022 年是 CMS Energy 在運營和財務方面表現出色的一年。更重要的是，2022 年是 CMS Energy 持續提供行業領先財務業績的第 20 個年頭。你們中的許多人都和我們一起踏上了這段旅程，我感謝你們，我感謝你們。你看我們把我們的話付諸行動。

Our performance is supported by our simple investment thesis, which delivers for our customers and investors. We continue to lead the clean energy transformation. Our net-zero commitments backed up by the solid plans in our approved integrated resource plan, IRP, provides certainty for our investments in clean energy and highlight the supportive regulatory construct in Michigan.

我們的業績得到了我們簡單的投資理念的支持，該理念為我們的客戶和投資者帶來了回報。我們繼續引領清潔能源轉型。我們的淨零承諾得到我們批准的綜合資源計劃 IRP 中可靠計劃的支持，為我們對清潔能源的投資提供了確定性，並突出了密歇根州的支持性監管結構。

Across the company, we are disciplined about taking cost out and working every day to get better. We use the CE Way from corporate functions, to the front line to achieve our operational and financial objectives. This focus keeps customer bills affordable.

在整個公司，我們都嚴格遵守削減成本和每天努力變得更好的紀律。從企業職能到一線，我們都使用 CE Way 來實現我們的運營和財務目標。這種關注使客戶的賬單負擔得起。

On the regulatory front, it's been an incredible year. We sold not 1, not 2, but 3 major cases, highlighting the top-tier regulatory backdrop in Michigan. All of this leads to a premium toll of shareholder return you've come to expect from CMS Energy. I want to take a few minutes to share some of the big wins we had over the year.

在監管方面，這是令人難以置信的一年。我們賣掉的不是 1 個，不是 2 個，而是 3 個主要案例，突出了密歇根州的頂級監管背景。所有這些都會導致您對 CMS Energy 期望的股東回報付出高額代價。我想花幾分鐘時間分享一下我們在這一年中取得的一些重大勝利。

First, our commitment to people, our coworkers, who show up every day with a heart of service and our customers who count on us to be there in any weather with safe, reliable, affordable and clean energy. In 2022, we were recognized nationwide as the best employer for women in the utility sector, a top employer for diversity and one of the best large employers by Forbes. It's this team of coworkers who continue to deliver results utilizing the CE Way. In 2022, our coworkers commitment to being best-in-class in the operation of our generating assets, saved our customers roughly $560 million. This is more than double what we delivered in 2021, meaning our team continues to drive more value by running our own generation more efficiently than the market.

首先，我們對員工的承諾，我們的同事，他們每天都以服務之心出現，我們的客戶指望我們在任何天氣下都能提供安全、可靠、負擔得起的清潔能源。 2022 年，我們被《福布斯》評為全國公用事業領域女性最佳雇主、多元化最佳雇主和最佳大型雇主之一。正是這個同事團隊繼續利用 CE Way 交付成果。到 2022 年，我們的同事承諾在我們的發電資產運營方面做到一流，為我們的客戶節省了大約 5.6 億美元。這是我們在 2021 年交付的兩倍多，這意味著我們的團隊將繼續通過比市場更有效地運行我們這一代人來創造更多價值。

Just to make this real. In December, during storm Elliot, when others were short power, this team and these generation assets were exporting energy out of Michigan into MISO. I'm also pleased with the growth in economic development we've seen and helped lead in the state. As I shared in the Q3 call, semiconductors, polysilicon, and battery manufacturing are all calling Michigan home.

只是為了讓這成為現實。 12 月，在埃利奧特風暴期間，當其他人電力短缺時，這個團隊和這些發電資產正在將能源從密歇根州輸出到 MISO。我也對我們在該州看到並幫助引領的經濟發展增長感到高興。正如我在第三季度的電話會議中分享的那樣，半導體、多晶矽和電池製造都將密歇根稱為家。

230 megawatts of new and expanding load with over $8 billion of investment in Michigan. A recent Department of Energy study ranks Michigan as a top 3 state for planned battery plant capacity, further differentiating our state and service territory.

230 兆瓦的新負荷和不斷擴大的負荷，在密歇根州的投資超過 80 億美元。能源部最近的一項研究將密歇根州列為計劃電池廠容量的前 3 名州，進一步區分了我們的州和服務區域。

Our commitments across the state have delivered more load growth, more jobs and more investment, all of which create an environment and our state looks strong well into the future. And we remain focused on getting ready for that future with our IRP, which delivers even more savings to our customers with roughly $600 million in savings over our prior plan and reduces our carbon footprint by over 60% as we exit coal in 2025 and then 8 gigawatts of solar and 550 megawatts of battery through 2040.

我們在全州的承諾帶來了更多的負荷增長、更多的就業機會和更多的投資，所有這些都創造了一個環境，我們的州在未來看起來很強大。我們仍然專注於通過我們的 IRP 為未來做好準備，這比我們之前的計劃節省了大約 6 億美元，為我們的客戶帶來了更多的節省，並且隨著我們在 2025 年和 8 年停止使用煤炭，我們的碳足跡減少了 60% 以上到 2040 年，千兆瓦的太陽能和 550 兆瓦的電池。

We continued our long track record of managing costs and keeping prices affordable through the CE Way and delivering $58 million of savings in 2022. This level of discipline to continuously improve has been a contributor to the successful regulatory outcomes in our settled electric and gas rate cases, which is highlighted by the $47 million of regulatory mechanisms to infrastructure investments and assist customers.

我們繼續通過 CE Way 管理成本和保持價格可承受的長期記錄，並在 2022 年節省了 5800 萬美元。這種持續改進的紀律水平有助於我們在解決的電費和燃氣費案件中取得成功的監管成果，基礎設施投資和協助客戶的 4700 萬美元監管機制凸顯了這一點。

This year, both our customers and investors will benefit from our $22 million voluntary refund mechanism, a $15 million bill credit and $10 million of customer assistance. These regulatory mechanisms de-risk 2023, while providing needed customer benefit. It's this strong execution in these results that you and we expect. And it meets our commitment to the triple bottom line, positioning our business for sustainable long-term growth.

今年，我們的客戶和投資者都將受益於我們 2200 萬美元的自願退款機制、1500 萬美元的賬單信貸和 1000 萬美元的客戶援助。這些監管機制將在 2023 年降低風險，同時提供所需的客戶利益。您和我們期望的正是這些結果中的這種強大執行力。它符合我們對三重底線的承諾，使我們的業務能夠實現可持續的長期增長。

2022 marks another year of premium growth. The team continued to deliver regardless of conditions. In 2022, we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.89 at the high end of our guidance range. I'm also pleased to share that we are raising our 2023 adjusted full year EPS guidance to $3.06 to $3.12 from $3.05 to $3.11 per share. Compounding off of 2022 actuals, like you would expect from a premium name like CMS Energy. We continue to expect to be toward the high end of this range which points to the midpoint or higher signaling our confident as we start the year in a strong position.

2022 年是保費增長的又一年。無論條件如何，團隊都繼續交付。 2022 年，我們的調整後每股收益為 2.89 美元，處於我們指導範圍的高端。我也很高興與大家分享，我們將 2023 年調整後的全年每股收益指引從每股 3.05 美元上調至 3.11 美元，上調至 3.06 美元至 3.12 美元。結合 2022 年的實際情況，就像您對 CMS Energy 這樣的優質名稱所期望的那樣。我們繼續期望達到該範圍的高端，指向中點或更高，這表明我們有信心在今年年初處於強勢地位。

Furthermore, the CMS Energy Board of Directors recently approved a dividend increase to $1.95 per share for 2023. Longer-term, we continue to have confidence toward the high end of our adjusted EPS growth range of 6% to 8%, and we continue to see long-term dividend growth of 6% to 8% with a targeted payout ratio of about 60% over time.

此外，CMS Energy 董事會最近批准將 2023 年的股息上調至每股 1.95 美元。從長遠來看，我們繼續對調整後 EPS 增長范圍的高端 6% 至 8% 充滿信心，我們將繼續看到長期股息增長 6% 到 8%，隨著時間的推移，目標派息率約為 60%。

And finally, I'm pleased to share that we have refreshed our 5-year utility customer investment plan, increasing our prior plan by $1.2 billion to $15.5 billion through 2027. I have confidence in our plan for 2023 and beyond, given our long-standing ability to manage the work and consistently deliver industry-leading growth. It's no coincidence that I started my prepared remarks with our investment thesis. We live by it, and it works.

最後，我很高興地與大家分享，我們已經更新了我們的 5 年公用事業客戶投資計劃，將我們之前的計劃增加 12 億美元，到 2027 年達到 155 億美元。我對我們 2023 年及以後的計劃充滿信心，因為我們長期-管理工作並始終如一地實現行業領先增長的常備能力。我以我們的投資主題開始我準備好的發言並非巧合。我們靠它生活，它有效。

On Slide 6, we've highlighted our new 5-year $15.5 billion utility customer investment plan. This translates to greater than 7% annual rate base growth and support safety and reliability investments in our electric and gas systems and paves the way to a clean energy future with net-zero carbon, methane and greenhouse gas emissions. You will note that about 40% of our customer investments support renewable generation, grid modernization and maintenance service replacements on our gas system, which are critical as we lead the clean energy transformation. Bottom line, we have a long and robust capital runway.

在幻燈片 6 中，我們強調了我們新的 5 年 155 億美元公用事業客戶投資計劃。這轉化為超過 7% 的年增長率，並支持對我們的電力和天然氣系統的安全性和可靠性投資，並為實現淨零碳、甲烷和溫室氣體排放的清潔能源未來鋪平道路。您會注意到，我們大約 40% 的客戶投資支持可再生能源發電、電網現代化和我們燃氣系統的維護服務更換，這對於我們引領清潔能源轉型至關重要。最重要的是，我們擁有一條漫長而強勁的資本跑道。

Beyond our core investments, we have growth drivers outside of traditional rate base. This includes adders built into legislation. We're incentives on our energy efficiency and demand response programs and the financial compensation mechanism, FCM, we earn on PPAs. We also expect incremental earnings provided by our non-utility business, NorthStar Clean Energy, as they see continued growth in their contracted renewables as well as better pricing from capacity and energy sold at our DIG facility.

除了我們的核心投資之外，我們還有傳統利率基礎之外的增長動力。這包括立法中規定的加法器。我們對我們的能源效率和需求響應計劃以及財務補償機制 FCM 進行激勵，我們通過 PPA 獲得收益。我們還預計我們的非公用事業業務 NorthStar Clean Energy 將提供增量收益，因為他們看到合同可再生能源的持續增長以及我們 DIG 設施銷售的容量和能源的更好定價。

We continue to earn a 10.7% ROE in renewables to meet our renewable portfolio standard and are in the process of completing the Heartland Wind project in 2023. These regulatory incentives are a core part of Michigan's energy law, which with our strong regulatory construct, continues to support needed customer investments. In addition, the energy law provides certainty of recovery, the forward-looking 10-month rate cases and regular fuel tracking mechanisms that allow us to help smooth the impact of commodity prices for our customers.

我們繼續在可再生能源領域獲得 10.7% 的股本回報率，以滿足我們的可再生能源投資組合標準，並且正在 2023 年完成 Heartland Wind 項目。這些監管激勵措施是密歇根州能源法的核心部分，憑藉我們強大的監管結構，繼續支持所需的客戶投資。此外，能源法提供了復甦的確定性、前瞻性的 10 個月費率案例和定期燃料跟踪機制，使我們能夠幫助我們的客戶消除商品價格的影響。

I used the word incredible to describe this earlier. We delivered across the board with settlements, our IRP and our gas and electric rate cases, providing more certainty for 2023 customer investment. This wasn't by accident. We have a supportive law, strong regulatory construct in our improved regulatory approach enables us to work with multiple parties on complex cases and provide the best outcome for our customers and investors. And we plan to continue the strong performance in the next rate case cycle. We filed a gas case in December, and we'll file our next electric rate later this year. With those outcomes providing further certainty for 2024 customer investments.

我之前用難以置信這個詞來形容這個。我們全面交付了結算、IRP 以及天然氣和電費案例，為 2023 年的客戶投資提供了更多確定性。這並非偶然。我們在改進的監管方法中擁有支持性法律和強有力的監管結構，使我們能夠與多方合作處理複雜案件，並為我們的客戶和投資者提供最佳結果。我們計劃在下一個利率案例週期中繼續保持強勁表現。我們在 12 月提交了一個天然氣案例，我們將在今年晚些時候提交下一個電價。這些結果為 2024 年的客戶投資提供了進一步的確定性。

We know a robust customer investment plan in strong regulatory construct alone do not support sustainable growth. Our customers count on us to keep their bills affordable. Inflation has been top of mind for many throughout 2022 and remain so as we enter 2023.

我們知道，僅靠強大的監管結構來製定穩健的客戶投資計劃並不能支持可持續增長。我們的客戶指望我們讓他們的賬單負擔得起。在整個 2022 年，通貨膨脹一直是許多人最關心的問題，並且在我們進入 2023 年時仍然如此。

First, I'll remind everyone that CMS Energy is well positioned as it relates to the key sources of inflation, including labor, materials and commodities. In addition, we delivered roughly $150 million in CE Way savings over the last 3 years and estimate over $200 million in large episodic savings as PPAs expire and as we exit coal generation.

首先，我要提醒大家，CMS Energy 處於有利地位，因為它與通貨膨脹的主要來源有關，包括勞動力、材料和商品。此外，我們在過去 3 年中通過 CE Way 節省了大約 1.5 億美元，並估計隨著 PPA 到期和我們退出煤炭發電，可節省超過 2 億美元的大量資金。

We're also seeing significant new and expanding commercial and industrial load in our service territory. There is a broad spectrum of growth. Some customers have opened new facilities this year and some are in early construction. These new sales opportunities, both in the short- and long-term, allow us to spread our cost across a growing customer base. Ultimately reducing rates for all of our customers. It should be no surprise why I'm pleased with 2022 and confident in the 2023 outlook. This proven approach continues to deliver.

我們還在我們的服務領域看到了重要的新的和不斷擴大的商業和工業負載。增長范圍很廣。一些客戶今年開設了新設施，一些正在早期建設中。這些新的短期和長期銷售機會使我們能夠將成本分攤到不斷增長的客戶群中。最終降低我們所有客戶的費率。我對 2022 年感到滿意並對 2023 年的前景充滿信心也就不足為奇了。這種行之有效的方法繼續發揮作用。

Now I'll pass the call over to Rejji, who will offer additional detail.

現在我會將電話轉給 Rejji，他會提供更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Garrick, and good morning, everyone. As Garrick highlighted, we delivered strong financial performance in 2022 with adjusted net income of $838 million, which translates to $2.89 per share at the high end of our guidance range. The key drivers of our full year 2022 financial performance were higher sales driven by favorable weather and solid commercial and industrial load, the latter of which is indicative of the attractive economic conditions in our service territory and rate relief net of investment. These positive drivers were partially offset by higher expenses attributable to discrete customer initiatives, which reduce bills, support our most vulnerable customers and improve the safety and reliability of our gas and electric systems.

謝謝你，加里克，大家早上好。正如 Garrick 強調的那樣，我們在 2022 年實現了強勁的財務業績，調整後的淨收入為 8.38 億美元，相當於我們指導範圍的高端每股 2.89 美元。我們 2022 年全年財務業績的主要驅動力是有利的天氣和穩固的商業和工業負荷推動的更高銷售額，後者表明我們服務區域的經濟狀況具有吸引力以及扣除投資後的利率減免。這些積極的驅動因素被分散的客戶舉措導致的更高費用部分抵消，這些舉措減少了賬單，支持我們最脆弱的客戶並提高了我們的燃氣和電力系統的安全性和可靠性。

Our strong performance in 2022 provided significant financial flexibility at year-end which, as Garrick highlighted, enabled us to de-risk our 2023 financial plan to the benefit of customers and investors, which I'll cover in more detail later.

我們在 2022 年的強勁表現在年底提供了顯著的財務靈活性，正如 Garrick 強調的那樣，這使我們能夠降低 2023 年財務計劃的風險，使客戶和投資者受益，我將在後面詳細介紹。

To elaborate on the strength of our financial performance in 2022 on Slide 10, you'll note that we met or exceeded the vast majority of our key financial objectives for the year. From an EPS perspective, our consistent performance above plan over the course of 2022, enable us to raise and narrow our 2022 adjusted EPS guidance on our third quarter call.

為了在幻燈片 10 上詳細說明我們 2022 年的財務業績，您會注意到我們達到或超過了這一年的絕大多數關鍵財務目標。從每股收益的角度來看，我們在 2022 年期間的持續表現高於計劃，這使我們能夠在第三季度電話會議上提高和縮小 2022 年調整後的每股收益指引。

From a financing perspective, we successfully settled $55 million of equity forward contracts as planned and more notably, opportunistically priced approximately $440 million of equity forward contracts at a weighted average price of over $6 to $8 per share to address the parent company's financing needs for the pending acquisition of the Covert natural gas generation facility in support of our IRP.

從融資的角度來看，我們按計劃成功結算了 5500 萬美元的股權遠期合同，更值得注意的是，我們以每股 6 至 8 美元的加權平均價格對約 4.4 億美元的股權遠期合同進行了機會性定價，以滿足母公司的融資需求待收購 Covert 天然氣發電設施以支持我們的 IRP。

The only financial target missed in 2022 was related to our customer investment plan at the utility which was budgeted for $2.6 billion. We ended the year just shy of that at $2.5 billion, primarily due to the timing of a wind project in support of Michigan's renewable portfolio standard, which was largely pushed into 2023 and is now under construction.

2022 年唯一未能實現的財務目標與我們在該公用事業公司的客戶投資計劃有關，該計劃的預算為 26 億美元。我們以略低於 25 億美元的價格結束了這一年，這主要是由於支持密歇根州可再生能源投資組合標準的風能項目的時間安排，該標準大部分被推遲到 2023 年，目前正在建設中。

Moving to our 2023 EPS guidance on Slide 11. As Garrick noted, we are raising our 2023 adjusted earnings guidance to $3.06 to $3.12 per share from $3.05 to $3.11 per share with continued confidence toward the high end of the range. As you can see in the segment details, our EPS growth will primarily be driven by the utility as it has for the past several years, and we also assume modest growth for our non-utility business, NorthStar Clean Energy.

轉到我們在幻燈片 11 上的 2023 年每股收益指引。正如 Garrick 指出的那樣，我們將 2023 年調整後的每股收益指引從每股 3.05 美元上調至每股 3.12 美元至 3.12 美元，並繼續對區間的高端充滿信心。正如您在細分細節中看到的那樣，我們的 EPS 增長將主要由公用事業推動，就像過去幾年一樣，我們還假設我們的非公用事業業務 NorthStar Clean Energy 將適度增長。

Finally, we plan for limited activity at the parent given the lack of financing needs in 2023 beyond the settlement of the aforementioned equity forward contract for the Covert acquisition, while maintaining the usual conservative assumptions throughout the business.

最後，鑑於 2023 年除了上述 Covert 收購股權遠期合同的結算外缺乏融資需求，我們計劃在母公司進行有限的活動，同時在整個業務中保持通常的保守假設。

To elaborate on the glide path to achieve our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance range, as you'll note on the waterfall chart on Slide 12, we'll plan for normal weather, which in this case amounts to $0.20 per share of negative year-over-year variance, given the absence of the favorable weather we saw in 2022.

為了詳細說明實現我們 2023 年調整後 EPS 指導範圍的下滑路徑，正如您在幻燈片 12 的瀑布圖上註意到的那樣，我們將計劃正常天氣，在這種情況下相當於每股 0.20 美元的負年度-年差異，因為我們在 2022 年沒有看到有利的天氣。

Additionally, we anticipate $0.14 of EPS pickup attributable to rate relief, largely driven by our recent electric and gas rate orders and the expectation of a constructive outcome in our pending gas rate case later this year. As always, our rate relief figures are stated net of investment-related costs such as depreciation, property taxes and utility interest expense.

此外，我們預計 0.14 美元的 EPS 回升可歸因於利率減免，這主要是由於我們最近的電力和天然氣費率訂單以及對今年晚些時候我們未決天然氣費率案取得建設性結果的預期所推動。與往常一樣，我們的利率減免數字是扣除與投資相關的成本，如折舊、財產稅和公用事業利息費用。

As we turn to our cost structure in 2023, you'll note $0.04 per share of positive variance attributable to continued productivity driven by the CE Way and other cost reduction initiatives underway. Lastly, in the penultimate bar on the right-hand side were assuming the usual conservative estimates around weather-normalized sales and non-utility performance, coupled with the benefits of the significant reinvestment activity deployed in the fourth quarter of 2022 through our regulatory filings and traditional operational pull ahead.

當我們轉向 2023 年的成本結構時，您會注意到每股 0.04 美元的正方差歸因於 CE Way 和其他正在進行的成本削減計劃推動的持續生產力。最後，在右側的倒數第二個欄中，我們假設了對天氣正常化銷售和非公用事業業績的通常保守估計，再加上通過我們的監管文件和 2022 年第四季度部署的重大再投資活動的好處傳統的運營領先。

These assumptions equate to $0.19 to $0.25 of positive variance versus 2022. As always, we'll adapt to changing conditions throughout the year to mitigate risks and deliver our operational and financial objectives to the benefit of customers and investors.

與 2022 年相比，這些假設相當於 0.19 美元至 0.25 美元的正方差。一如既往，我們將適應全年不斷變化的情況，以降低風險並實現我們的運營和財務目標，以造福於客戶和投資者。

On Slide 13, we have a summary of our near- and long-term financial objectives. To avoid being repetitive, I'll limit my remarks, the metrics we have not yet covered. From a balance sheet perspective, we continue to target solid investment-grade credit ratings, and we'll continue to manage our key credit metrics accordingly. To that end, we'll look to settle the equity forward contracts for the Covert financing in the second quarter of 2023 and have no additional planned equity financing needs until 2025.

在幻燈片 13 上，我們總結了我們的近期和長期財務目標。為避免重複，我將限制我的評論，即我們尚未涵蓋的指標。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們繼續以可靠的投資級信用評級為目標，我們將繼續相應地管理我們的關鍵信用指標。為此，我們將尋求在 2023 年第二季度結算隱蔽融資的股權遠期合同，並且在 2025 年之前沒有額外的計劃股權融資需求。

In the outer years of our plan, we intend to resume our at-the-market, or ATM, equity issuance program in the amount of up to $350 million per year in 2025 through 2027 and given the substantial increase in our 5-year utility customer investment plan. And as such, you can expect us to file a prospectus supplement to reflect this revision to our ATM program later this year.

在我們計劃的最後幾年，我們打算在 2025 年到 2027 年期間恢復我們的上市或 ATM 股票發行計劃，每年的金額高達 3.5 億美元，並且考慮到我們 5 年效用的大幅增加客戶投資計劃。因此，您可以期待我們在今年晚些時候提交招股說明書補充文件，以反映對我們 ATM 計劃的這一修訂。

Slide 14 offers more specificity on the balance of our funding needs in 2023, which are limited to debt issuances at the utility a good portion of which has been priced and/or funded over the past several weeks as noted on the page. In fact, the $825 million of utility bond financings addressed to date include the $400 million tranche of debt financing required to fund the acquisition of Covert in the second quarter. So we have fully de-risked our financing needs for that critical component of our IRP well in advance with attractive terms to the benefit of customers and investors. And as a reminder, the acquisition of the Covert natural gas facility will enable us to exit coal generation in 2025 and which makes us 1 of the first vertically integrated utilities in the country to do so.

幻燈片 14 更具體地說明了我們 2023 年的資金需求平衡，這些需求僅限於公用事業公司的債務發行，其中很大一部分已經在過去幾週內定價和/或融資，如頁面上所述。事實上，迄今為止處理的 8.25 億美元公用事業債券融資包括為第二季度收購 Covert 提供資金所需的 4 億美元債務融資。因此，為了客戶和投資者的利益，我們以有吸引力的條款提前充分降低了我們對 IRP 關鍵組成部分的融資需求的風險。提醒一下，收購 Covert 天然氣設施將使我們能夠在 2025 年退出煤炭發電，這使我們成為該國首批這樣做的垂直整合公用事業公司之一。

To conclude my remarks on Slide 15, we've refreshed our sensitivity analysis on key variables for your modeling assumptions. As you'll note, with reasonable planning assumptions and our track record of risk mitigation, the probability of large variances from our plan is minimized. Our model has served and will continue to serve all stakeholders well. Our customers receive safe, reliable and clean energy at affordable prices. Our diverse workforce remains engaged, well-trained and empowered in our purpose-driven organization, and our investors benefit from consistent industry-leading financial performance.

為了總結我對幻燈片 15 的評論，我們更新了對您的建模假設的關鍵變量的敏感性分析。您會注意到，通過合理的規劃假設和我們在降低風險方面的記錄，我們的計劃出現較大差異的可能性已降至最低。我們的模型已經並將繼續為所有利益相關者提供良好的服務。我們的客戶以實惠的價格獲得安全、可靠和清潔的能源。我們多元化的員工隊伍在我們以目標為導向的組織中保持敬業、訓練有素並獲得授權，我們的投資者受益於始終如一的行業領先財務業績。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Garrick for his final remarks before the Q&A session.

有了這個，我會把它交還給加里克，讓他在問答環節之前發表最後的評論。

Thank you, Rejji. Our simple investment thesis is how we run our business and has withstood the test of time. It delivers in a very balanced way for all our stakeholders and enables us to consistently deliver our financial objectives. 2022 was an outstanding year, marking our 20th year of industry-leading financial performance. I'm confident in our refresh $15.5 billion utility customer investment plan, the ability to execute on it and in our regulatory construct to support it as well as our solid track record of managing costs we keep customer bills affordable.

謝謝你，雷吉。我們簡單的投資主題是我們如何經營我們的業務並經受住了時間的考驗。它以一種非常平衡的方式為我們所有的利益相關者提供服務，並使我們能夠始終如一地實現我們的財務目標。 2022 年是傑出的一年，標誌著我們實現行業領先財務業績的第 20 個年頭。我對我們更新的 155 億美元公用事業客戶投資計劃、執行該計劃的能力、支持它的監管結構以及我們在管理成本方面的良好記錄充滿信心，我們讓客戶的賬單負擔得起。

Finally, we deliver regardless of conditions, not by luck, or accident, but by a great team who runs a proven model, who sees discipline in the work. This is what led to an outstanding 2022 and provides for a strong outlook in 2023 and beyond.

最後，我們在任何條件下都能交付成果，這不是靠運氣或意外，而是靠一個運行經過驗證的模型的優秀團隊，他們在工作中看到了紀律。這就是導致 2022 年表現出色的原因，並為 2023 年及以後的前景提供了強勁的前景。

With that, Adam, please open the lines for Q&A.

Adam，請開啟問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shar Pourreza。

So just Garrick, couple of quick questions here. The CapEx update now includes Covert. Can you maybe comment on the impacts of IRA in the plan you presented today? The Clean Energy segment went from 2.8 to 3.1. So it was kind of a fairly modest increase. Were there sort of any assumption changes around tax equity utilization? Or do you anticipate another IRP update would be needed for more fundamental changes to the Clean Energy outlook?

所以只是加里克，這裡有幾個簡單的問題。 CapEx 更新現在包括 Covert。您能否評論一下您今天提出的計劃中 IRA 的影響？清潔能源部分從 2.8 升至 3.1。所以這是一個相當適度的增長。關於稅收股權利用是否有任何假設變化？或者您是否預計需要另一次 IRP 更新才能對清潔能源前景進行更根本的改變？

This -- The $15.5 billion plan, as you indicated, includes Covert and a nice tranche of renewables. And I'll also point out from a VGP perspective, that's that large customer renewable program. It includes the first tranche of that as well. And so happy to dive in a little bit deeper here. But remember this, that Covert and our renewables bill is spelled out in our integrated resource plan. So that's the nature of this 5-year plan, both from a renewable and the development of renewables, the Covert acquisition as well as storage and storage deployment. So that's set. And that IRP really serves as the prudency review and then we go through the regulatory cases to recover on those. And so that plan reflects that.

正如您所指出的，這個 155 億美元的計劃包括 Covert 和相當一部分可再生能源。我還要從 VGP 的角度指出，那是大客戶可再生計劃。它也包括其中的第一部分。很高興能在這裡深入一點。但請記住這一點，Covert 和我們的可再生能源法案在我們的綜合資源計劃中有詳細說明。這就是這個 5 年計劃的本質，包括可再生能源和可再生能源的開發、Covert 收購以及存儲和存儲部署。就這樣定了。 IRP 確實起到了審慎審查的作用，然後我們通過監管案例來恢復這些案例。因此，該計劃反映了這一點。

Now your specific question on the IRA, that's additional benefit for our customers. As we've shared, that production tax credit offers savings directly on the execution of that plan. By 2026, that's about $60 million a year of savings for our customers. And so that IRP when we originally filed it was around $600 million -- or settlement, I should say, was around $600 million of savings for our customers. That only grows as a result of the production tax credit and the IRA. And so that's the nature of how we're applying that. I would remind you as well, based on AMT, we don't anticipate being subject to AMT for really the remainder of the decade, the way that's framing up. And so I don't know, Rejji, do you want to add any additional comment to Shar's question?

現在你關於 IRA 的具體問題，這對我們的客戶來說是額外的好處。正如我們所分享的那樣，生產稅收抵免可以直接在執行該計劃時節省開支。到 2026 年，這將為我們的客戶每年節省約 6000 萬美元。因此，當我們最初提交 IRP 時，IRP 約為 6 億美元——或者說和解，我應該說，為我們的客戶節省了大約 6 億美元。這只會因生產稅收抵免和愛爾蘭共和軍而增長。這就是我們應用它的本質。我還要提醒你，基於 AMT，我們預計在這十年的剩餘時間裡不會真正受到 AMT 的影響，這是框架的方式。所以我不知道，Rejji，你想對 Shar 的問題添加任何額外的評論嗎？

No, I think you laid it out pretty well, Garrick. The only thing I would add Shar, you did ask about tax equity, at the utility we're not assuming a tax equity for financing for any of these projects.

不，我認為你把它佈置得很好，加里克。我唯一要補充的是 Shar，你確實問過稅收公平，在公用事業公司，我們沒有為任何這些項目的融資假設稅收公平。

Got it. Okay. Perfect. And then just lastly, just a question on your updated guidance and sort of the embedded assumptions. You're showing $0.04 of cost savings as a driver for '23, but also highlighted roughly $30 million or about $0.10 of cost savings related to Karn 1 and 2 coal retirements. What level, I guess, of cost inflation is embedded in the $0.04? Is there a headwind on labor materials? And then more importantly, how are you sort of thinking about that O&M flex beyond that $0.04? Is it closer to the $58 million you achieved in '22.

知道了。好的。完美的。最後，只是關於您更新的指南和某種嵌入式假設的問題。您顯示 0.04 美元的成本節省作為 23 年的驅動因素，但也強調了與 Karn 1 和 2 煤炭退役相關的大約 3000 萬美元或約 0.10 美元的成本節省。我猜，0.04 美元的成本通脹水平是多少？勞動力材料有逆風嗎？然後更重要的是，您如何看待超過 0.04 美元的運維彈性？它是否更接近你在 22 年實現的 5800 萬美元？

Yes. So Shar, I'll cover most of this, and if Garrick wants to add he certainly can. To answer your last question first. We're assuming around $45 million to $50 million of cost reductions attributable to the CE Way. So that's what we have embedded in the plan. And we've been pleased to observe over the last several years now that we're at a run rate now of about $45 million, $50 million, which we hit really in the pandemic, sometimes necessity is the mother of invention. And so prior to the pandemic, the run rate was about $10 million of O&M reduction. And then we had a really nice inflection point during the pandemic of about $40 million to $45 million of CE Way-driven savings, and that's -- we've held on to that some time. And so that's the working assumption embedded in the plan.

是的。所以 Shar，我將介紹其中的大部分內容，如果 Garrick 想補充，他當然可以。先回答你的最後一個問題。我們假設 CE Way 可使成本降低約 4500 萬至 5000 萬美元。這就是我們在計劃中嵌入的內容。在過去的幾年裡，我們很高興地看到，我們現在的運行率約為 4500 萬美元，5000 萬美元，我們在大流行中真正達到了這一目標，有時需要是發明之母。因此，在大流行之前，運行率約為 1000 萬美元的 O&M 減少。然後我們在大流行期間有一個非常好的拐點，大約 4000 萬到 4500 萬美元的 CE Way 驅動的儲蓄，那是——我們已經堅持了一段時間。這就是計劃中嵌入的工作假設。

I would say Karn 1 and 2, we do anticipate those savings coming through. We'll see some of that in our power supply costs with just less coal procurement, but also, obviously, on the O&M side, there's clearly less staffing attributable to gas plants versus coal. So you'll see some of the savings there. And so that's largely the inputs that we have flowing through that cost productivity line item or the $0.04 that you're seeing in the waterfall from 2022 to 2023. Is that helpful?

我會說 Karn 1 和 2，我們確實預計會節省這些費用。我們將在我們的電力供應成本中看到一些，只是減少煤炭採購，但顯然，在 O&M 方面，與煤炭相比，天然氣廠的人員配備明顯較少。所以你會在那裡看到一些節省。因此，這主要是我們流經該成本生產率項目的輸入，或者您在 2022 年至 2023 年的瀑布中看到的 0.04 美元。這有幫助嗎？

It is. That's helpful, Rejji. Congrats on the quarter.

這是。這很有幫助，Rejji。祝賀這個季度。

The next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

Just wanted to start off by digging into DIG a little bit if possible. And if I look at Slide 20 here, just wondering if you could walk us through, is this in-plan or is this upside plan? And just if you could elaborate a little bit, I guess, the future plan for DIG flip to the market or do Michigan customers want the asset? Just trying to see what's happening there. What could happen there?

如果可能的話，我只是想先深入了解一下 DIG。如果我在這裡查看幻燈片 20，只是想知道您是否可以引導我們完成，這是計劃內的還是上行計劃？如果你能詳細說明一下，我想，DIG 的未來計劃將轉向市場，還是密歇根客戶想要這項資產？只是想看看那裡發生了什麼。那裡會發生什麼？

I like the way you teed that up. We're going to dig into DIG. It's kind of like my Ferrari comment when I talk about DIG. I mean you may not know this, but the DIG plant itself is right across from the River Rouge plant where they make the Ford Lightnings. And I just happened to get me a Ford Lightning about 3 weeks ago. So it performs well better than Ferrari. I'll tell you that. So we're going to call the Ford F-150 Lightning in the garage from now going forward.

我喜歡你的方式。我們將深入挖掘 DIG。這有點像我在談論 DIG 時對法拉利的評論。我的意思是你可能不知道這一點，但 DIG 工廠本身就在他們生產福特閃電的 River Rouge 工廠對面。大約 3 週前，我剛好給我買了一輛福特 Lightning。所以它的性能比法拉利好。我會告訴你的。因此，從現在開始，我們將在車庫中調用福特 F-150 Lightning。

But bottom line, here's what we do at DIG. And it's been a historical practice, which really serves us well as we layer in capacity contracts, multiyear capacity contracts and energy contracts over time. And as everyone knows, energy prices and capacity prices have been continuing to rise. There's that upward pressure in there. And so as we layer in these contracts, it's provided additional benefit, additional return from that facility. And so that's what we're reflecting those contracts that have already been inked, you might say, for the improvement in performance.

但最重要的是，這就是我們在 DIG 所做的。這是一種歷史慣例，隨著時間的推移，我們在容量合同、多年容量合同和能源合同中分層，這確實對我們很有幫助。眾所周知，能源價格和產能價格一直在持續上漲。那裡有向上的壓力。因此，當我們在這些合同中分層時，它提供了額外的好處，從該設施獲得額外的回報。這就是我們反映那些已經簽署的合同，你可能會說，為了提高性能。

Now we anticipate that to continue to improve as we layer in additional contracts, particularly in -- we're about 50% contracted both for energy and capacity if you get out to the year '26, '27 in that time frame. So there's potential for upside there. And I'll have Rejji walk through what that upside looks like here in just a moment. But why don't you do that, Rejji, then I'll conclude.

現在我們預計，隨著我們簽訂額外合同，這種情況會繼續改善，特別是在——如果你在那個時間範圍內到 26 年、27 年，我們的能源和產能合同大約有 50%。所以那裡有上漲的潛力。稍後我將讓 Rejji 介紹一下這裡的優勢。但是你為什麼不那樣做呢，Rejji，然後我就結束了。

Yes. So just to go back to the page you referenced, Jeremy, Page 20 in the deck, you see these dark blue bars here at around $30 million. That's a pretty good run rate for the economics we have locked in through capacity and energy contracts as we're noting here in 2023. And then as you get to the added years of the plan, you see these light blue sensitivities in the stacked bar chart, and that represents the opportunity if we start to see continued tightening and therefore, improved economics in the bilateral market. And so in the event we see capacity prices go to about $4.50 per kilowatt month. You can see the incremental upside here from a pretax income basis. And then if it gets closer to CONE, and I'll remind everyone that Zone 7 is priced pretty much at CONE for 2 of the last 3 planning resource auctions. You could see us at a higher level than that with about $25 million of upside. And so as Garrick noted, we wouldn't see those economics until the out of years of the plan, but there's some opportunity as margin opens up in sort of the '25, '26, '27 time frame.

是的。所以回到你引用的頁面，Jeremy，甲板上的第 20 頁，你會看到這些深藍色的條形圖大約 3000 萬美元。正如我們在 2023 年註意到的那樣，對於我們通過產能和能源合同鎖定的經濟而言，這是一個相當不錯的運行率。然後當你進入計劃的額外年份時，你會在堆積條中看到這些淡藍色的敏感性圖表，如果我們開始看到持續緊縮並因此改善雙邊市場的經濟狀況，那代表了機會。因此，如果我們看到容量價格升至每千瓦月 4.50 美元左右。您可以從稅前收入的基礎上看到這裡的增量上漲。然後，如果它更接近 CONE，我會提醒大家，在最近 3 次規劃資源拍賣中，有 2 次 7 區的定價幾乎與 CONE 相同。你可以看到我們的水平高於 2500 萬美元的上漲空間。因此，正如 Garrick 指出的那樣，我們要等到計劃實施多年後才能看到這些經濟效益，但隨著利潤率在 25 年、26 年、27 年的時間框架內開放，存在一些機會。

And let me just conclude there. So there's -- that upside is not in the plan, just to be really clear about that. And to the degree there is upside I want to make sure everyone's clear, there's no sugar highs, right? We deliver 6% to 8%, and we have confidence toward the high end. So I just want to be clear on expectations going forward.

讓我就此結束。所以有 - 計劃中沒有好處，只是為了真正清楚這一點。在一定程度上有好處，我想確保每個人都清楚，沒有高糖，對吧？我們交付6%到8%，我們對高端有信心。所以我只想明確未來的期望。

That's very helpful there. And I just want to continue, I guess, with kind of [later dated] development for the plan here. And looking at the back half of the planned growth drivers outside of rate base. Can you walk us through time line for clarity on the pieces there? Just wondering if there's conservatism on those items as we look at kind of outside of rate base growth later date?

這在那裡非常有幫助。我想，我只是想繼續為這裡的計劃進行某種 [後來的] 開發。並查看利率基礎之外的計劃增長驅動力的後半部分。你能帶我們通過時間線來清楚地了解那裡的各個部分嗎？只是想知道在我們稍後觀察利率基礎增長之外的情況時，這些項目是否存在保守主義？

Yes. And just -- thank you for the question, Jeremy. And just for everyone's reference, this is the content we have on Slide 6 of the deck. And so we've always talked about the additional growth drivers beyond the rate base as a result of the very constructive legislation. We have in Michigan. And so there's the energy waste reduction opportunities that we have, and we earn economic incentives on that. There's a financial compensation mechanism that we get on PPAs that has been solidified now in 2 integrated resource plans. And then there is the 10.7% ROE that we get on renewable projects associated with the renewable portfolio standard of Michigan, which we're still executing on. And then there's additional contribution from NorthStar.

是的。只是 - 謝謝你的問題，傑里米。僅供大家參考，這是我們在幻燈片 6 上的內容。因此，由於非常有建設性的立法，我們一直在談論超出利率基礎的額外增長動力。我們在密歇根州。因此，我們擁有減少能源浪費的機會，我們因此獲得了經濟激勵。我們在 PPA 上獲得了一種經濟補償機制，現在已經在 2 個綜合資源計劃中得到鞏固。然後是我們在與密歇根州可再生能源投資組合標準相關的可再生能源項目上獲得的 10.7% 的股本回報率，我們仍在執行該標準。然後還有 NorthStar 的額外貢獻。

And so all of those offer growth to our earnings profile above and beyond what we get in the rate base. And so that 7% or so you're seeing for rate base growth. These would be additive to that. And I would say you get steady contribution for the majority of these. Jeremy, to get to your question. And so with respect to energy waste reduction, we do expect that to increase gradually over the course of the plan. The PPAs. Those will actually ramp up as we do more solar on the contracted side attributable to the IRP. And then we'll see probably more front-end loaded the wind opportunity and then just steady growth at NorthStar. And so that's really how you should think about the economic opportunity for those non-rate-base opportunities over the course of the plan.

因此，所有這些都為我們的盈利狀況提供了超出我們在利率基礎上獲得的增長。所以你看到 7% 左右的利率基礎增長。這些將是附加的。我會說你會為其中的大部分做出穩定的貢獻。傑里米，回答你的問題。因此，在減少能源浪費方面，我們確實希望在計劃過程中逐漸增加。 PPA。隨著我們在 IRP 的承包方做更多的太陽能，這些實際上會增加。然後我們可能會看到更多的前端加載風的機會，然後在 NorthStar 穩步增長。因此，這確實是您在計劃過程中應該如何考慮那些非利率基礎機會的經濟機會。

The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

This is Heidi Hauch on for Julien. My first question is to just to elaborate on the DIG economics and the opportunity there, how do you see the move from a seasonal auction in MISO or 2 seasonal auction in MISO from an annual auction kind of impacting that opportunity, if at all? And how should we think about that there? .

這是 Julien 的 Heidi Hauch。我的第一個問題是詳細說明 DIG 經濟學和那裡的機會，你如何看待 MISO 的季節性拍賣或 MISO 的 2 個季節性拍賣從年度拍賣中的轉變，如果有的話，會影響那個機會嗎？我們應該如何考慮呢？ .

Yes. So we are assessing MISO's new rules around sort of the seasonal auction. I still think when you cut through it, whether it's a historical process or the new process, you're still going to see a continued tightening of Zone 7. It's still in Peninsula. You still have limited transmission importation access to the southern border, and you still have coal retirements. And so when you have those sort of construct, you're going to see just an imbalance between supply and demand and DIG will start to open up in those outer years.

是的。因此，我們正在評估 MISO 圍繞某種季節性拍賣的新規則。我仍然認為，當你突破它時，無論是歷史過程還是新過程，你仍然會看到 7 區繼續收緊。它仍在半島。您對南部邊境的傳輸輸入訪問仍然有限，並且您仍然有煤炭退役。因此，當您擁有這些結構時，您將看到供需之間的不平衡，而 DIG 將在那些外部年份開始開放。

And so we anticipate, as I said before, that we'll potentially see more attractive economics as energy and capacity starts to free up in the outages of the plan. The degree to which it's more attractive, we'll see. I think, obviously, there's -- it's early days. But we certainly think what we're showing on the page and that Slide 20 offers at least a representative or is at least indicative as to where prices may go if we see continued tightening. Again, those light blue bars, that upside opportunity is not incorporated in our plan to be very clear.

因此，正如我之前所說，我們預計，隨著能源和產能在計劃中斷時開始釋放，我們可能會看到更具吸引力的經濟效益。它更具吸引力的程度，我們拭目以待。我認為，很明顯，現在還為時尚早。但我們當然認為我們在頁面上顯示的內容以及幻燈片 20 至少提供了一個代表，或者至少指示瞭如果我們看到持續緊縮的價格可能走向何方。再一次，那些淺藍色的柱子，那個上行機會並沒有包含在我們的計劃中，這是非常明確的。

And just to add to that, that old seasonal construct is out there to address resource adequacy. And when you -- the capacity that has been applied over units has the potential to actually reduce some capacity of units. And so that the need grows, certainly in the short to midterm across all of MISO, including Zone 7. So the value of a place like in a facility like DIG should only improve for Rejji's comments.

除此之外，舊的季節性結構可以解決資源充足問題。當你 - 已應用於單元的容量有可能實際減少單元的某些容量。因此，需求增長，當然是在整個 MISO 的短期到中期，包括第 7 區。因此，像 DIG 這樣的設施中的地方的價值應該只會因 Rejji 的評論而提高。

Great. That's helpful. And switching gears a bit here. Can you quantify the aggregate voluntary regulatory mechanisms in 2022? And as we think about the updated 2023 guidance range, do you have any voluntary mechanism embedded in the range at this time?

偉大的。這很有幫助。在這裡稍微換檔。您能否量化 2022 年的總體自願監管機制？當我們考慮更新後的 2023 年指導範圍時，您目前是否在該範圍內嵌入了任何自願機制？

Yes. So to answer your last question first, Heidi, we do not presuppose any VRM for the 2023 waterfall -- or sorry, for our 2023 guidance, and none of that's incorporated in the waterfall, I should say.

是的。所以首先回答你的最後一個問題，Heidi，我們沒有為 2023 年瀑布預設任何 VRM——或者抱歉，對於我們的 2023 年指導，我應該說，這些都沒有包含在瀑布中。

With respect to the components of the voluntary refill mechanism, we just filed that earlier this year, to be clear, it's $22 million and we're going to allocate a portion of that towards excess capital investments over the course of '22 attributable to emerging capital work like asset relocations, demand failures, new business. And so that's a portion of it on the electric side. And then we allocated a good -- the balance of it towards our gas customers, particularly those who are most vulnerable, and we think that's a very prudent use of those resources during these challenging times for customers. And so that's really the spirit of it. Were you also getting at the electric rate case settlement commitments as well?

關於自願補充機制的組成部分，我們剛剛在今年早些時候提交了申請，明確地說，這是 2200 萬美元，我們將在 22 世紀期間將其中的一部分分配給新興市場的超額資本投資資產搬遷、需求失敗、新業務等資本工作。這就是電氣方面的一部分。然後我們為我們的天然氣客戶，特別是那些最脆弱的客戶分配了一筆好錢，我們認為在這些對客戶來說充滿挑戰的時期，這是對這些資源的非常謹慎的使用。所以這真的是它的精神。您是否也獲得了電價案件和解承諾？

Yes, yes, correct. And the donations as well as how we should think about kind of what informs the guidance?

是的，是的，沒錯。捐贈以及我們應該如何思考指導的內容？

Yes. And so there's none of that incorporated into the 2023 guide either and just to round out the numbers here. So in the electric rate case settlement, we committed to a $15 million bill credit that will benefit customers in 2023. And again, we recognize the expense of that in 2022, and then there was a $10 million again of low-income customer support, again, recognized in 2022 and customers will benefit from that over the course of this year. And so that's really how it works. And none of that is presupposed in our 2023 guide.

是的。因此，2023 年指南中也沒有包含任何內容，只是為了對此處的數字進行四捨五入。因此，在電費案件和解中，我們承諾提供 1500 萬美元的賬單信貸，這將使客戶在 2023 年受益。而且，我們再次認識到 2022 年的費用，然後又提供了 1000 萬美元的低收入客戶支持，再次，在 2022 年得到認可，客戶將在今年從中受益。這就是它的工作原理。在我們的 2023 年指南中，這些都不是預設的。

And so if I pull up and look at the big picture here, this is why the Michigan regulatory construct is so strong. You have these mechanisms, whether it's the settlement or whether it's a voluntary refund means that allow us to de-risk the future year and offer additional customer benefit. And that's exactly what this $47 million is. And so this gives us -- this is why I'm so confident, we're so confident in our ability and the outlook for 2023.

因此，如果我停下來看看這裡的大局，這就是密歇根監管結構如此強大的原因。您擁有這些機制，無論是結算還是自願退款，都意味著我們可以降低未來一年的風險並提供額外的客戶利益。這正是這 4700 萬美元的價值。所以這給了我們——這就是為什麼我如此自信，我們對我們的能力和 2023 年的前景如此自信。

The next question is from Michael Sullivan of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Michael Sullivan。

One thing I picked up on in your comments upfront Garrick was I think you said improved approach on the regulatory side as kind of being key to some of the settlements last year. Can you just give a little more color on what you meant by that and what that means going forward in terms of like being able to consistently settle?

我在加里克前面的評論中提到的一件事是，我認為你說監管方面的改進方法是去年一些和解的關鍵。您能否就您的意思以及在能夠始終如一地解決問題方面向前邁進的意義提供更多顏色？

Well, you remember Q4 call last year. And I was in this spot, and we were saying, hey, we need to improve. We didn't get the best order out of the commission. And we said a couple of things on that call. One, we needed to improve our testimony in our business cases. And we did that. We took 2 months. We delayed the case by 2 months, and that's exactly what we worked on. We also adjusted our approach for the electric rate case and how we deliver that and interface with the staff on it. That was a learning that we took from our integrated resource plan filing, we extended that to our electric rate case.

好吧，你還記得去年第四季度的電話會議。我在這個地方，我們說，嘿，我們需要改進。我們沒有從佣金中得到最好的訂單。我們在那次電話會議上說了幾件事。第一，我們需要改進我們在業務案例中的證詞。我們做到了。我們花了2個月。我們將案件推遲了 2 個月，而這正是我們所做的。我們還調整了針對電費案例的方法，以及我們如何提供電費以及如何與相關員工互動。這是我們從綜合資源計劃備案中學到的知識，我們將其擴展到我們的電費案例中。

And then as we got to August, we saw staff position, it was a very constructive staff position because of all the work that had been done in the testimony and business cases, the improvement that had been done. And that was the foundation. So once you have that constructive foundation, that constructive point where staff is, then it's really an opportunity to work through settlement. And that's exactly what we did working with a number of interveners, Attorney General, the staff, business community, residential community as well as number of environmental interveners to really have a very constructive outcome with this electric rate case.

然後到了 8 月，我們看到了員工職位，這是一個非常有建設性的員工職位，因為在證詞和業務案例中所做的所有工作，以及已經完成的改進。這就是基礎。因此，一旦你有了建設性的基礎，即員工所在的建設性點，那麼這真的是一個解決問題的機會。這正是我們與許多干預者、總檢察長、工作人員、商業社區、住宅社區以及許多環境干預者合作所做的工作，以便在這個電費案例中真正取得非常有建設性的結果。

And so as I look forward, we're going to continue to deploy those methods. We're going to continue to improve the process going forward so that we can set ourselves up for settlement or if we have to go to the final order that we can get a constructive order.

因此，正如我所期待的，我們將繼續部署這些方法。我們將繼續改進未來的流程，以便我們可以為和解做好準備，或者如果我們必須進入最終訂單，我們可以獲得建設性訂單。

Great. That's really helpful. And then just shifting to the CapEx plan and the clean energy spend. Can you guys just quantify like how much on a megawatt basis of renewables you're looking at over the plan and what that looks in terms of split between solar storage, wind?

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後轉向資本支出計劃和清潔能源支出。你們能不能量化一下計劃中可再生能源的兆瓦數量，以及太陽能存儲和風能之間的分配情況？

Let me -- I'll take a crack at it here and Rejji will jump in a little bit too. So in our IRP, there's -- obviously, we're replacing coal. And so I'll just kind of walk through the whole piece of it, so you can see every component of it. So we're going to add about 1.2 gigawatts, that's the Covert facility. We got this RFP out there for 700 megawatts, 500 is dispatchable, 200 is renewables, which will have a PPA for that will get enough financial compensation mechanism on that portion of it. And then in addition to that, we got about 1.2 gigawatts of renewable build-out in that plan that's spelled out in our IRP. And again, 8 gigawatts over the longer piece of 1.2 roughly in that 5-year window. That's a mix of wind and solar.

讓我——我會在這裡嘗試一下，Rejji 也會加入一點。所以在我們的 IRP 中，很明顯，我們正在取代煤炭。因此，我將大致介紹一下它的整個部分，這樣您就可以看到它的每個組成部分。所以我們要增加大約 1.2 吉瓦，這是 Covert 設施。我們獲得了 700 兆瓦的 RFP，其中 500 個是可調度的，200 個是可再生能源，其中將有一個 PPA，這將在這一部分上獲得足夠的經濟補償機制。除此之外，在我們的 IRP 中詳細說明的計劃中，我們還獲得了大約 1.2 吉瓦的可再生能源建設。再一次，在那個 5 年的窗口中，較長的 1.2 大約有 8 吉瓦。這是風能和太陽能的混合體。

And then bottom line, we have also in here, what I call energy efficiency and demand response. Those are also play out in that window as well. And then if you're doing the math on this, we're also keeping Karn 3 and 4 around. That's part of it as well, but that's just more of a capacity look.

然後底線，我們也在這裡，我稱之為能源效率和需求響應。這些也在那個窗口中播放。然後，如果您對此進行數學計算，我們還會保留卡恩 3 和 4。這也是它的一部分，但這只是一種容量外觀。

And so we're in the process of constructing a wind farm right now. That's part of our renewable portfolio standard. That's the 1 Rejji mentioned in his comments. It's under construction. That's about a couple of hundred megawatts of that plan.

所以我們現在正在建設一個風電場。這是我們可再生能源組合標準的一部分。這就是他評論中提到的 1 Rejji。它正在建設中。這大約是該計劃的幾百兆瓦。

And the remainder out there is roughly solar and solar build. I will add this, and Shar asked this question earlier and I didn't finish it, but we also have in this plan 300 -- roughly 300 megawatts of voluntary green pricing. This is our large customer renewable program. We've talked about this over previous calls. It's about 1,000 megawatts. We have ability to build and we have subscriptions for that. And we've got our first, you might say, tranche of subscriptions. And then we're building the first -- over the course of this plan, we're building the first 300 megawatts. Is that helpful?

其餘的大致是太陽能和太陽能建築。我要補充一點，Shar 之前問過這個問題，但我沒有完成，但我們在這個計劃中也有 300——大約 300 兆瓦的自願綠色定價。這是我們的大客戶可再生計劃。我們在之前的電話中討論過這個問題。大約是 1,000 兆瓦。我們有能力構建並且我們有訂閱。你可能會說，我們已經有了第一批訂閱。然後我們正在建造第一個——在這個計劃的過程中，我們正在建造第一個 300 兆瓦。這有幫助嗎？

And Michael, the only bit I'd add is that you asked about storage as well. I think Garrick enumerated every last bit, and I'll just add storage. We're assuming around 75 megawatts storage in the plan. I mean, obviously, longer term for the IRP, we'll do more than that. But over the course of this 5-year plan, about 75 megawatts.

邁克爾，我要補充的唯一一點是你也詢問了存儲。我認為 Garrick 列舉了最後一點，我將添加存儲空間。我們假設計劃中的存儲容量約為 75 兆瓦。我的意思是，很明顯，從 IRP 的長期來看，我們會做更多的事情。但在這個 5 年計劃的過程中，大約有 75 兆瓦。

The next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Andrew Weisel。

I just want to elaborate on an earlier question about the non-rate base drivers. I guess my question is what are the offsets if rate base is growing faster than 7% plus these adders, you're clear that we shouldn't expect more than 8% growth, no sugar highs. So what's keeping the growth below 8%? Is it the equity in the outer years or something else?

我只想詳細說明一個關於非費率基礎驅動程序的早期問題。我想我的問題是，如果利率基礎增長速度超過 7% 加上這些加法器，那麼抵消是什麼，你很清楚我們不應該期望增長超過 8%，沒有糖高。那麼是什麼使增長率保持在 8% 以下呢？是外年的股權還是別的？

Andrew, it's Rejji. The only thing I would add is that to Garrick's comment is if you ever need help getting your baby asleep feel free to play back this call. We try to make these calls to the extent of it. But to get to your question, I would say, yes, you will see some equity dilution in the outer years of the plan. So as I mentioned, we'll be getting to up to $350 million of equity from '25 through 2027. So that's some of the offset to the non-rate base opportunities. And then we will have some parent funding costs in the outer years of pain beyond equity. So we'll start issuing a little bit of debt. And so that's the other bit as well. So I'd say it's largely on the funding side.

安德魯，我是 Rejji。我唯一要補充的是，對於 Garrick 的評論，如果您需要幫助讓您的寶寶入睡，請隨時播放此電話。我們嘗試在其範圍內進行這些調用。但要回答你的問題，我會說，是的，你會在計劃的最後幾年看到一些股權稀釋。因此，正如我提到的，從 25 年到 2027 年，我們將獲得高達 3.5 億美元的股權。因此，這是對非利率基礎機會的一些抵消。然後，在股權之外的痛苦歲月中，我們將有一些母公司的資金成本。所以我們將開始發行一些債務。這也是另一部分。所以我想說這主要是在資金方面。

Yes. If I could just add to it. It's also the mindset that we have. We're going to -- we've got great mechanisms in the state in this construct with the VRM that allow us to offer benefit in the next year both for our customers and for our investors. And that really helps to de-risk. And so that's another reason why we think about it towards really the long term versus 1 year in a sugar high.

是的。如果我可以添加它。這也是我們的心態。我們將 - 我們在這個帶有 VRM 的結構中擁有很好的機制，使我們能夠在明年為我們的客戶和投資者提供利益。這確實有助於降低風險。因此，這就是我們考慮真正長期而不是 1 年高糖的另一個原因。

Sounds good. And then on the equity, the number went up. It was up to $250 million, now it's up to $350 million in '25 and beyond. Just wondering what's the driver of that increase? And I know it's up to, but why the change?

聽起來不錯。然後在股權上，這個數字上升了。它高達 2.5 億美元，現在在 25 世紀及以後高達 3.5 億美元。只是想知道這種增長的驅動因素是什麼？我知道這取決於，但為什麼要改變？

Yes. So it's a good question, Andrew. And just to be clear here. So obviously, the capital investment plan has increased materially from the prior vintage. So we were $14.3 billion in the prior 5-year plan, we're now $15.5 billion. And we're effectively addressing the Covert needs and that drives about $800 million of that increase. But the balance, we still have incremental investment opportunities above and beyond Covert. And so it's really to balance out the funding for that additional CapEx and obviously maintain our credit metrics kind of in that mid-teens area, which we've always targeted for my prepared remarks.

是的。所以這是個好問題，安德魯。在這裡要說清楚。很明顯，資本投資計劃比前一個年份有了實質性的增加。所以我們在之前的 5 年計劃中是 143 億美元，現在是 155 億美元。我們正在有效地解決 Covert 的需求，這推動了大約 8 億美元的增長。但總的來說，我們仍然有超越 Covert 的增量投資機會。因此，這真的是為了平衡額外資本支出的資金，並顯然將我們的信用指標保持在十幾歲的中間區域，我們一直以我準備好的言論為目標。

But I will also our general rule of thumb, obviously, is we always want to avoid block equity and we still think even at that level of up to $350 million per year, even where the market cap is right now at sub-2%. And in a perfect world, the market cap will continue to grow, and it will be a much smaller relative to the market CapEx point. So we think we can triple that out comfortably without any overhang or material pricing risk.

但我也將我們的一般經驗法則，顯然，我們總是希望避免大宗股權，我們仍然認為即使在每年高達 3.5 億美元的水平上，即使目前市值低於 2%。在一個完美的世界中，市值將繼續增長，並且相對於市場資本支出點而言將小得多。因此，我們認為我們可以輕鬆地將其增加三倍，而不會產生任何懸垂或材料定價風險。

Agreed. It's definitely not a risk. Just trying to understand does that mean it's going to be more than $250 million and less than $350 million, the way you see it now?

同意。這絕對不是風險。只是想了解這是否意味著它會超過 2.5 億美元且低於 3.5 億美元，就像你現在看到的那樣？

I would say up to $350 million per year.

我會說每年高達 3.5 億美元。

The next question comes from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 David Arcaro。

I was wondering if you could just specify what you're assuming for load growth in the latest outlook. You had some good commentary too about industrial activity in the state. What are the recent trends you've been experiencing with resi and C&I activity as well?

我想知道你是否可以在最新的展望中指定你對負載增長的假設。您對該州的工業活動也有一些很好的評論。您最近在 resi 和 C&I 活動中遇到的趨勢是什麼？

David, this is Rejji. I'll take that. So let me start with what we saw last year, and it was very consistent with our commentary over the course of each quarter, but we just continue to see good load growth on a weather-normalized basis in Michigan. And so we were down about 1% for residential as we have been highlighting that was actually a little better than planned. But then on the commercial side, we were up over 1.5%. And then industrial, excluding 1 large low-margin customer, up over 2.5%. So all in, about a point or 1% on a blended basis. And our expectations are, I'd say, a little tempered going into 2023. And so we anticipate being a little south of that. And so we would say probably flat to slightly up all in. Resi continuing to come in as people continue to go back to work.

大衛，這是雷吉。我會接受的。因此，讓我從我們去年看到的情況開始，這與我們對每個季度的評論非常一致，但我們只是繼續看到密歇根州天氣正常化的負載增長良好。因此，我們一直強調住宅的價格下降了約 1%，這實際上比計劃的要好一些。但隨後在商業方面，我們上漲了 1.5% 以上。然後是工業，不包括 1 個大型低利潤客戶，漲幅超過 2.5%。所以總而言之，在混合基礎上大約是一個點或 1%。我想說，我們的期望在進入 2023 年時會有所緩和。因此我們預計會稍微偏南一點。因此，我們會說可能持平到略有上漲。隨著人們繼續回去工作，Resi 繼續進來。

But still commercial, I'd say, roughly 0.5 point in industrial between 1.5% to 2%. So we still anticipate decent load growth, and that does not include any of the robust economic development opportunities that we see in our pipeline at the moment as a result of the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, we continue to see lot of activity, whether it's semiconductor fabs, as Garrick known in his prepared remarks, battery, EV battery supply chain or other energy-intensive businesses. We do hope that we'll see some more lumpy load opportunity outer years of the plans. So more to come on that.

但仍然是商業的，我想說，在 1.5% 到 2% 之間的工業中大約有 0.5 個百分點。因此，我們仍然預計負載會出現不錯的增長，這不包括我們目前在管道中看到的任何強勁的經濟發展機會，這是由於 CHIPS 和科學法案、通貨膨脹減少法案的結果，我們繼續看到很多活動，無論是半導體晶圓廠，正如加里克在他準備好的講話中所知道的那樣，還是電池、電動汽車電池供應鍊或其他能源密集型企業。我們確實希望我們能在計劃之外的幾年看到更多的負載機會。所以還有更多的事情要做。

Yes. I just would add to that under Rejji's good comments there. The CHIPS Act and the IRA and even the IIJA, that's a superb acronym there. But bottom line, they've helped our business, and they've helped a number of other businesses here in the state from a growth perspective. In addition to that, we've been working closely with the legislature with the Governor's office or site incentives that really make our state as competitive as other states that are offering site incentives that comes in terms of not only investment in the site from a state perspective, but also incentives to locate here, which has been very helpful.

是的。我只是想根據 Rejji 那裡的好評補充一下。 CHIPS 法案和 IRA，甚至是 IIJA，這是一個極好的首字母縮略詞。但最重要的是，他們幫助了我們的業務，並且從增長的角度來看，他們幫助了該州的許多其他企業。除此之外，我們一直與立法機關密切合作，通過州長辦公室或選址激勵措施，真正使我們的州與其他提供選址激勵措施的州一樣具有競爭力，這些激勵措施不僅來自州對選址的投資遠景，還有激勵定位這裡，這已經很有幫助了。

We introduced an economic development rate, which further encourages growth here in the state, and we're seeing some nice low growth over the last year and commitments to Michigan, and I expect more here in short order. And so I'm excited about that and what that means for our state, both from an investment perspective, growth perspective and particular jobs perspective.

我們引入了經濟發展率，這進一步鼓勵了該州的增長，我們看到去年的一些不錯的低增長和對密歇根州的承諾，我預計短期內會有更多。因此，我對此感到興奮，這對我們州意味著什麼，無論是從投資角度、增長角度還是特定就業角度。

Great. Very helpful. And I was just wondering, just looking out the equity needs later in the plan and the balance sheet and cash flow at that point. I was wondering, are there any cash flow impacts that come over time potentially from IRA or as you start ramping up renewables and with tax credit dynamics, anything that could help operating cash flow, free up cash flow to further invest at that point that we should think about just as your investment profile shifts in that direction?

偉大的。很有幫助。我只是想知道，只是看看計劃後面的股權需求以及當時的資產負債表和現金流量。我想知道，隨著時間的推移，IRA 是否可能對現金流產生任何影響，或者當你開始增加可再生能源和稅收抵免動態時，任何可以幫助運營現金流、釋放現金流以進一步投資的東西，我們在那個時候當您的投資組合向那個方向轉變時，您應該考慮什麼？

Yes, it's a good question, David. So we currently are assuming about $12.5 billion of operating cash flow generation over the duration of this plan. So a healthy level, and that's kind of run rate of $2.5 billion or so per year.

是的，這是個好問題，大衛。因此，我們目前假設在該計劃期間產生約 125 億美元的運營現金流。所以這是一個健康的水平，這是每年 25 億美元左右的運行率。

So clearly, we'll benefit, as Garrick noted earlier, from just lower costs as a result of the production tax will now apply to solar investments. Whether there's incremental upside opportunity for OCF, we'll see, but we try to plan conservatively, and we feel pretty good about the estimates for OCF and the fund financing plan going forward.

很明顯，正如加里克之前指出的那樣，我們將從較低的成本中受益，因為生產稅現在將適用於太陽能投資。 OCF 是否有增量上行機會，我們拭目以待，但我們盡量保守地計劃，我們對 OCF 的估計和未來的基金融資計劃感到非常滿意。

And I think it's also worth noting that we don't anticipate being a material payer federal taxes through the duration of this plan will be a partial taxpayer you start to get to '24 and '25, but federal tax cash payments are not a material source of outflow over the course of this plan. And that's kind of been of our norm for some time now. So the team continues to do a very effective tax planning to minimize that outflow.

而且我認為還值得注意的是，我們預計在該計劃的持續時間內聯邦稅款不會成為部分納稅人，您開始達到 24 歲和 25 歲，但聯邦稅收現金支付不是實質性的本計劃過程中的流出來源。一段時間以來，這已經成為我們的常態。因此，該團隊繼續進行非常有效的稅務規劃，以盡量減少資金外流。

The next question comes from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Just Rejji I want to go back to the equity financing plan. So the CapEx in both '25 and '26 was raised by $100 million, and that seems to all sort of go the equity from $250 to $350 million. Did the assumptions change in cash flow or did anything else change? Or you're just building some flexibility in this line. So if you could just talk to that, please?

只是 Rejji 我想回到股權融資計劃。所以 25 年和 26 年的資本支出都增加了 1 億美元，這似乎使股權從 250 美元增加到 3.5 億美元。現金流量的假設是否發生變化或其他任何變化？或者你只是在這條線中建立一些靈活性。所以，如果你能談談，好嗎？

I would say it's more flexibility than anything else. I mean, I would say it's not as formulaic. It's a $100 million increase in the given year equates to 400% equity financing. I think it's more you see about $400-plus million of incremental capital investment above the prior plan and exclusive of Covert. And so we're just trying to fund that as thoughtfully as possible. But it's not as formulaic as incremental $100 million in '25 and, therefore, incremental $100 million, it's much more is a little more art than that.

我會說它比其他任何東西都更靈活。我的意思是，我會說它不那麼公式化。給定年份增加 1 億美元相當於 400% 的股權融資。我認為更多的是你看到超過先前計劃和 Covert 除外的約 400 多萬美元的增量資本投資。因此，我們只是盡可能深思熟慮地為其提供資金。但它不像 25 年增加 1 億美元那樣公式化，因此，增加 1 億美元，它比這更像是一門藝術。

So I would just say just it gives us some flexibility. And hopefully, we don't have to do as much of that. But for now, the guidance is up to $350 million per year, and we think that prudently funds the business and keeps those credit metrics in the mid-teens level to keep the credit ratings we have that we've worked very hard to achieve.

所以我只想說它給了我們一些靈活性。希望我們不必做那麼多。但就目前而言，每年的指導高達 3.5 億美元，我們認為謹慎地為企業提供資金並將這些信用指標保持在十幾歲左右的水平，以保持我們努力實現的信用評級。

That makes sense. And then maybe just on the Slide 12 here. The $0.19 to $0.25 usage, non-utility tax and other. Can you give a little bit of a more detailed breakdown of what's usage and some of the other items, if you can?

這就說得通了。然後可能只是在幻燈片 12 上。 0.19 美元至 0.25 美元的使用費、非公用事業稅和其他費用。如果可以的話，您能否更詳細地說明用途和其他一些項目？

Yes. So usage non-weather sales, I just provided that in the other question. But like I said, it's flat to slightly up, I would say, about 25 basis points up all in. We expect residential down over 0.5% folks come back to pre-pandemic levels. And then you've got commercial up about 0.5 point and then 1.5% to 2% for industrial, again, excluding 1 large low-margin customer.

是的。所以使用非天氣銷售，我只是在另一個問題中提供了這一點。但就像我說的，它持平到略有上升，我想說，總共上升了大約 25 個基點。我們預計住宅下降超過 0.5% 的人會回到大流行前的水平。然後你有商業上漲約 0.5 個百分點，然後工業上漲 1.5% 至 2%，同樣不包括 1 個大型低利潤客戶。

The other big bucket within that $0.19 to $0.25 is remember, we had a little of discretionary activities in the fourth quarter. So namely, you've got the VRM which was $22 million, and then you've got another $25 million of electric rate case commitments. And so all in that $47 million of Q4 [flex] is about $0.12. That does not need to take place in the fourth quarter of this year. And so when you think about that comp of Q4 '22 versus Q4 2023, you see a lot of that in there. So I'd say it's a combination of those sort of discretionary items that don't need to recur.

記住，在 0.19 美元到 0.25 美元之間的另一個大桶是，我們在第四季度進行了一些可自由支配的活動。也就是說，你有 2200 萬美元的 VRM，然後你還有 2500 萬美元的電費案例承諾。因此，第四季度 [flex] 的 4700 萬美元總計約為 0.12 美元。這不需要在今年第四季度發生。因此，當您考慮 22 年第四季度與 2023 年第四季度的比較時，您會在其中看到很多。所以我想說它是那些不需要重複出現的可自由支配項目的組合。

And then you've got I'd say, relatively modest load assumptions. We've got a little bit of uptick in NorthStar as well. That's the other component of that. And as you can see, we delivered actuals of $0.12 per share at NorthStar in 2022 and the guide for this year 2023 is $0.13 to $0.16. So that's a piece of it as well. It's really those pieces.

然後我會說，你有相對適度的負載假設。 NorthStar 也有一些增長。那是另一個組成部分。正如你所看到的，我們在 2022 年交付了 NorthStar 每股 0.12 美元的實際值，而今年 2023 年的指導價為 0.13 美元至 0.16 美元。所以這也是其中的一部分。真的是那些碎片。

The usage and half of it looks like the Q4 flex from '22 to '23 and a couple of pennies at NorthStar.

用法和它的一半看起來像從 22 年到 23 年的 Q4 flex 和 NorthStar 的幾便士。

The next question comes from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Anthony Crowdell。

Just hopefully 2 quick ones. One was on DIG. Is there a desired amount of capacity you want to leave open in the plan? Do you look longer term and say we want to keep 50% open or 40% open? Are you guys are more opportunistic on that?

只是希望 2 個快速的。一個在 DIG 上。您是否希望在計劃中保留所需的容量？你是從長遠來看，說我們想保持 50% 的開放還是 40% 的開放？你們在這方面更投機嗎？

Well, right now, if you look at '23, '24, '25, it's 100% or pretty close to it. So we want to -- in the upcoming 2 to 3 years, we want it fully subscribing from a capacity and energy perspective. And as you layer in contracts time you get 2025, '26 it approaches 50%. So there's room there. And absolutely, we're going to take advantage of opportunities in the energy and capacity markets to layer that in. So some longer-term contracts to see really to take advantage of the opportunity out there is with energy and capacity prices. Does that help, Anthony?

好吧，現在，如果你看看 23 年、24 年、25 年，它是 100% 或非常接近它。所以我們希望——在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，我們希望它從容量和能源的角度完全訂閱。當你在合同時間中分層時，你會得到 2025，'26 它接近 50%。所以那裡有空間。當然，我們將利用能源和容量市場中的機會將其分層。因此，一些長期合同可以真正利用能源和容量價格方面的機會。這有幫助嗎，安東尼？

Yes, absolutely. And then lastly, if I want to maybe look a little longer here, your next IRP filing, I mean the IRP, the guys finished, I guess, I don't know, the '22 or '21, very successful, transformational. What's the timing of the next IRP? And what's that going to look like?

是的，一點沒錯。最後，如果我想在這裡多看一會兒，你的下一個 IRP 文件，我的意思是 IRP，這些人完成了，我想，我不知道，'22 或 '21，非常成功，轉型。下一個 IRP 的時間安排是什麼時候？那會是什麼樣子？

It just feels like I got through that this year with the settlement, like I'm [celebrating]. I'm still in my victory lap of that IRP. It was a landmark. And now you're going to ask about the next one. Yes.

感覺就像我今年通過和解度過了難關，就像我在 [慶祝]。我仍處於那個 IRP 的勝利圈。這是一個里程碑。現在你要問下一個。是的。

Park the Lightning in the garage before you do the victory lap.

在進行勝利圈之前，將 Lightning 停在車庫中。

So we have to be in there within 5 years. It's usually a 3 to 5 years window. We don't have a plan yet on when that would be. It usually helps to be in around 3 years just because of the timing of the cycles of recovery, but no set time yet at this point Anthony, sorry, I can't give you a date yet, but we'll work towards here the next few years.

所以我們必須在 5 年內到達那裡。這通常是一個 3 到 5 年的窗口。我們還沒有關於什麼時候的計劃。僅僅因為恢復週期的時間安排，通常在 3 年左右會有幫助，但目前還沒有確定時間 Anthony，抱歉，我還不能給你一個日期，但我們會朝著這個方向努力未來幾年。

The next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar.

下一個問題來自 Morningstar 的 Travis Miller。

Actually a couple of questions ago, you answered my question about unpacking that other $0.19 to $0.25 on next year's earnings. Just 1 quick follow-up to that. The usage, so that $0.07 on the 1% change in the electric side, especially. Is that on the numbers that you talked about in terms of what's in the guidance? Or is that incremental to what's on that guidance? You understand my question.

實際上，在幾個問題之前，您回答了我關於在明年的收益中拆包其他 0.19 美元到 0.25 美元的問題。只需 1 個快速跟進。使用情況，尤其是在電氣方面，1% 的變化為 0.07 美元。這是你在指南中談到的數字嗎？還是該指南中的內容有所增加？你明白我的問題。

I do follow you. Yes. So the sensitivities that you see Travis on Page 15. This just highlights what the EPS impact would be if we saw another point good or bad relative to plan. And so the sensitivity around on the electric side is about $0.07 for every percent. Now it obviously depends on mix. And so we're assuming, like I said, for the usage, about, call it, about 0.25% up on a blended basis with resi coming down a little over 0.5% commercial, about 0.5% up. And then industrial 1.5% to 2%. And so modeling purposes, that's sort of the base case. And then if we saw any deviation, that's what the sensitivity provides visibility on. Does that address your question?

我跟著你。是的。因此，您在第 15 頁上看到 Travis 的敏感性。這只是強調瞭如果我們看到與計劃相關的另一點好或壞，EPS 的影響將會是什麼。因此，電氣側的靈敏度約為每百分比 0.07 美元。現在它顯然取決於混合。因此，就像我說的那樣，我們假設使用量在混合基礎上大約上漲了 0.25%，而 resi 商業下跌略高於 0.5%，上漲了約 0.5%。然後是工業 1.5% 到 2%。所以建模的目的，這是一種基本情況。然後，如果我們看到任何偏差，這就是靈敏度提供可見性的原因。這是否解決了您的問題？

Yes, yes. Absolutely. And that could be weather sensitivity, right? That's not necessarily -- just why they're normal (inaudible) the weather benefit or detriment.

是的是的。絕對地。那可能是天氣敏感性，對吧？這不一定 - 只是為什麼它們是正常的（聽不清）天氣的好處或損害。

That's exactly, right.

就是這樣，沒錯。

We have no further questions at this time. So I'll hand the call back to Mr. Garrick Rochow for concluding remarks.

目前我們沒有其他問題。因此，我會將電話轉回給 Garrick Rochow 先生作總結髮言。

Thanks, Adam. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today for our year-end earnings call. We certainly hope to see you on the road over the next coming months. So take care and stay safe.

謝謝，亞當。我要感謝大家今天加入我們的年終財報電話會議。我們當然希望在接下來的幾個月裡在路上見到你。所以要小心並保持安全。

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開線路。