CMS能源 (CMS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the CMS Energy 2022 Third Quarter Results. The earnings news release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. This call is being recorded.

大家早上好，歡迎來到 CMS Energy 2022 年第三季度業績。今天早些時候發布的收益新聞稿和本次網絡廣播中使用的演示文稿可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分獲得。正在錄製此通話。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Just a reminder that there will be a rebroadcast of this conference call today, beginning at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, running through November 3. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section.

提醒一下，今天下午 12:00 將重播本次電話會議。東部時間，一直持續到 11 月 3 日。該演示文稿也將進行網絡直播，可在 CMS Energy 網站的“投資者關係”部分查看。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Sri Maddipati, Treasurer and Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給財務和投資者關係副總裁 Sri Maddipati 先生。

Thank you, Maxine. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me are Garrick Rochow, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rejji Hayes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding the risks and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix and posted on our website.

謝謝你，馬克辛。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。與我同行的還有總裁兼首席執行官 Garrick Rochow；和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Rejji Hayes。本演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述，存在風險和不確定性。有關可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的風險和其他因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的 SEC 文件。本演示文稿還包括非公認會計原則財務措施。這些措施與最直接可比的公認會計原則措施的對賬包含在附錄中，並發佈在我們的網站上。

Now I'll turn the call over to Garrick.

現在我將把電話轉給加里克。

Thanks, Sri, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I'm pleased with the results for the quarter and the path to year-end. But before I get into specifics, I want to start with our simple investment thesis, which continues to stay on the test of time. You've seen this in our calls and meetings and you've seen the results, it works. This is where we put our words into action. We remain firmly committed to leading the clean energy transformation. As I mentioned on the Q2 call, the approval of our IRP was a proof point, evident that we have a clear pathway supported by the regulatory construct to deliver on our leading clean energy commitment. Our investment thesis is fueled by our commitment to eliminate waste, driven by the CE Way. I put us up against anyone in our ability to take cost out.

謝謝，Sri，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我對本季度的結果和年底的道路感到滿意。但在我進入細節之前，我想先從我們簡單的投資論點開始，它會繼續經受時間的考驗。您已經在我們的電話會議和會議中看到了這一點，並且您已經看到了結果，它奏效了。這就是我們將言辭付諸行動的地方。我們將堅定不移地引領清潔能源轉型。正如我在第二季度電話會議上提到的那樣，我們的 IRP 的批准是一個證明點，這表明我們有一條明確的途徑，得到監管結構的支持，可以兌現我們領先的清潔能源承諾。我們的投資理念源於我們在 CE 方式的推動下消除浪費的承諾。我讓我們與任何有能力承擔成本的人抗衡。

This year, we are on track to take $50 million of O&M waste out of the business. The CE Way is critical to delivering our operational and financial performance and keeping our service affordable for our customers. Another critical element is our top-tier regulatory backdrop in Michigan. In Q2, we not only delivered our IRP, but we settled our gas rate case. And in this quarter, we received constructive feedback on our pending electric rate case, further evidence of the health of the Michigan regulatory environment. A key part of our investment thesis, which we don't talk about enough, is our diverse and attractive service territory.

今年，我們有望從業務中減少 5000 萬美元的運維浪費。 CE 方式對於實現我們的運營和財務績效以及讓我們的客戶能夠負擔得起我們的服務至關重要。另一個關鍵因素是我們在密歇根州的頂級監管背景。在第二季度，我們不僅交付了 IRP，還解決了我們的 gas rate 案例。在本季度，我們收到了關於未決電費案的建設性反饋，進一步證明了密歇根監管環境的健康。我們的投資論點的一個關鍵部分，我們談論得不夠多，是我們多樣化和有吸引力的服務領域。

I'm excited about both the pace and impact of new growth in Michigan. Just this month, our governor announced that Gotion, a global electric vehicle battery manufacturer selected Michigan for its U.S. expansion over many other states, highlighting another example of onshoring manufacturing within the state. This project is expected to add over 2,000 jobs and provide $2.4 billion of investment.

我對密歇根州新增長的速度和影響感到興奮。就在本月，我們的州長宣布，全球電動汽車電池製造商 Gotion 選擇密歇根州為其在美國的擴張超越了許多其他州，這突出了該州內外包製造的另一個例子。該項目預計將增加 2,000 多個工作崗位並提供 24 億美元的投資。

In August, President Biden joined Governor Whitmer at Hemlock Semiconductor headquartered here in the heart of our service territory. Together, they announced an executive directive to guide the implementation of the CHIPS Act, which will boost domestic chip production and bolster Michigan's leadership in the semiconductor industry. Let me put that into perspective. Hemlock is 1 of the largest polysilicon manufacturers in the world. Nearly 1/3 of the world's chips are made from polysilicon produced at that facility right here in Michigan.

8 月，拜登總統與總部位於我們服務領域中心的 Hemlock Semiconductor 的州長 Whitmer 會面。他們共同宣布了一項行政指令，以指導 CHIPS 法案的實施，這將促進國內芯片生產並鞏固密歇根州在半導體行業的領導地位。讓我考慮一下。 Hemlock 是世界上最大的多晶矽製造商之一。世界上近 1/3 的芯片是由密歇根州的該工廠生產的多晶矽製成的。

In September, Hemlock announced plans to grow its operation. The project is expected to add 170 jobs and $375 million of investment in the state. Ground has already been broken on the expansion. Also the expansion of SK Siltron, now in operation, a semiconductor wafer manufacturer, bringing 150 jobs and over $300 million of investment to the State. These are highlights over the quarter.

9 月，Hemlock 宣布了擴大業務的計劃。該項目預計將在該州增加 170 個工作崗位和 3.75 億美元的投資。擴建部分已經破土動工。此外，半導體晶圓製造商 SK Siltron 現已投入運營，為國家帶來了 150 個工作崗位和超過 3 億美元的投資。這些是本季度的亮點。

From the map on the slide, you can see we've secured over 80 agreements year-to-date, which translates to roughly 200 megawatts of new or expanding load in our service territory. This growth is bolstered by collaborative and innovative economic development efforts, supported by competitive rates for energy-intensive customers and robust policy, which are working and continue to drive growth.

從幻燈片上的地圖中，您可以看到我們今年迄今已獲得 80 多項協議，這意味著我們服務領域的新負載或擴展負載大約為 200 兆瓦。這一增長得益於協作和創新的經濟發展努力，得到能源密集型客戶具有競爭力的價格和強有力的政策的支持，這些政策正在發揮作用並將繼續推動增長。

Our work with the Governor's office, the legislature, the Michigan Economic Development Corporation and the commission has made it possible for Michigan to not only compete, but win investment and new jobs. These economic tailwinds are just a few of many we've seen and continue to see across Michigan that will help attract more business, grow industrial, commercial and residential load, and ultimately provide long-term bill relief for all our customers.

我們與州長辦公室、立法機關、密歇根經濟發展公司和委員會的合作使密歇根不僅能夠競爭，而且能夠贏得投資和新工作。這些經濟順風只是我們在密歇根州看到並繼續看到的眾多順風中的一小部分，它們將有助於吸引更多業務，增加工業、商業和住宅負荷，並最終為我們所有的客戶提供長期的賬單減免。

Our strong commitment to decarbonize both our gas and electric systems is a key differentiator with CMS Energy. The recently passed inflation Reduction Act is another catalyst for our clean energy transformation, supporting deployment of renewables and lowering costs for our customers. We see a lot of benefit in this new legislation. The extension of tax credits for both wind and solar provide economic certainty and lowers cost for our robust renewal backlog within our IRP, which includes 8 gigawatts of solar as well as the remaining 200 megawatts of wind, we are constructing to meet Michigan's renewable portfolio standard.

我們對天然氣和電力系統脫碳的堅定承諾是與 CMS Energy 的關鍵區別。最近通過的《減少通貨膨脹法案》是我們清潔能源轉型的另一個催化劑，支持可再生能源的部署並為我們的客戶降低成本。我們在這項新立法中看到了很多好處。風能和太陽能稅收抵免的延長為我們的 IRP 內強勁的更新積壓提供了經濟確定性並降低了成本，其中包括 8 吉瓦的太陽能以及剩餘的 200 兆瓦的風能，我們正在建設以滿足密歇根州的可再生能源投資組合標準.

Production tax credits for solar projects will drive cost competitiveness for utility-owned projects versus PPAs. As we build scale, this cost competitiveness has enabled us to own in rate base a greater portion of future IRP solar investments. The investment tax credit for storage will lower cost and provide greater flexibility as we're able to site storage strategically across the grid. Our IRP includes 75 megawatts of battery storage beginning in 2024 and could accelerate or increase the 550 megawatts of battery storage through 2040.

太陽能項目的生產稅收抵免將提高公用事業項目與 PPA 相比的成本競爭力。隨著我們規模的擴大，這種成本競爭力使我們能夠在未來 IRP 太陽能投資中擁有更大的比例。存儲的投資稅收抵免將降低成本並提供更大的靈活性，因為我們能夠戰略性地跨電網進行存儲。我們的 IRP 包括從 2024 年開始的 75 兆瓦電池存儲容量，並且可以加速或增加到 2040 年的 550 兆瓦電池存儲容量。

These tax advantages reduce the cost of new solar roughly 15%, providing annual cost savings of $60 million versus our plan. Also, with the use of tax deductions and credit, we do not expect a material impact in the alternative minimum tax through the remainder of the decade. All of this helps our customers with more savings. It supports our commitment to grow Michigan. It drives the transformation to clean energy and our growing voluntary green pricing program. Bottom line, this legislation is a great tailwind across the board.

這些稅收優惠使新太陽能的成本降低了大約 15%，與我們的計劃相比，每年可節省 6000 萬美元的成本。此外，通過使用稅收減免和抵免，我們預計替代性最低稅在本十年的剩餘時間內不會產生重大影響。所有這些都可以幫助我們的客戶節省更多。它支持我們發展密歇根的承諾。它推動了向清潔能源的轉型以及我們不斷增長的自願綠色定價計劃。最重要的是，這項立法是全面的順風。

Now let's get into the numbers. Year-to-date, we've delivered $2.29 of adjusted earnings per share and remain ahead of plan. With confidence in this year, we're raising the bottom end of our guidance to $2.87 to $2.89 per share from $2.85 to $2.89 per share. For 2023, we are initiating our full year preliminary guidance of $3.05 to $3.11 per share, which reflects 6% to 8% growth off the midpoint of our revised 2022 guidance, and we expect to be toward the high end of that range. And remember, we always rebase our guidance of actual compounding our growth. This brings you a higher quality of earnings and differentiates us from others in the sector. Our long-term dividend growth remains at 6% to 8%, with a targeted payout ratio of about 60% over time.

現在讓我們進入數字。年初至今，我們已經實現了 2.29 美元的調整後每股收益，並保持領先於計劃。憑藉對今年的信心，我們將指引的底端從每股 2.85 美元提高至 2.89 美元至每股 2.87 美元至 2.89 美元。對於 2023 年，我們將啟動每股 3.05 美元至 3.11 美元的全年初步指導，這反映了我們修訂後的 2022 年指導中點的 6% 至 8% 的增長，我們預計將接近該範圍的高端。請記住，我們總是重新確定我們實際複合增長的指導。這將為您帶來更高質量的收益，並使我們與業內其他公司區分開來。我們的長期股息增長率保持在 6% 至 8%，隨著時間的推移，目標派息率約為 60%。

We'll provide you with an update on our guidance as well as a refresh of our 5-year capital plan on the Q4 call early next year. Lastly, we are confident in both our outlook and our ability to deliver our financial and operational target for the remainder of the year, which brings me to my last slide.

我們將在明年初的第四季度電話會議上向您提供我們指導的最新信息以及我們 5 年資本計劃的更新。最後，我們對我們的前景和我們在今年餘下時間實現財務和運營目標的能力充滿信心，這讓我來到了我的最後一張幻燈片。

In a few weeks, Michigan will have elections across the state. New people will join the legislature. We'll also see the results of the race for governor. Whatever the outcome, we will work effectively as we have for decades with whoever holds office. You've heard us say it before, we deliver regardless of conditions, nearly 2 decades of industry-leading financial performance. You can count on CMS Energy for that.

幾週後，密歇根州將舉行全州選舉。新人將加入立法機關。我們還將看到州長競選的結果。無論結果如何，我們都將像幾十年來與任誰任職一樣有效地工作。您之前聽過我們說過，我們不分條件提供近 2 年行業領先的財務業績。您可以依靠 CMS Energy。

Now I'll turn the call over to Rejji to offer additional detail.

現在我將把電話轉給 Rejji 以提供更多細節。

Thank you, Garrick, and good morning, everyone. As Garrick noted, our third quarter results are a continuation of the strong performance we have delivered throughout the year, keeping us ahead of plan and positioning us well to achieve our financial objectives in 2022.

謝謝你，加里克，大家早上好。正如 Garrick 所指出的，我們第三季度的業績是我們全年業績強勁的延續，使我們保持領先，並為實現 2022 年的財務目標做好了準備。

To elaborate, year-to-date, we have delivered adjusted net income of $662 million or $2.29 per share, up $0.11 per share versus the comparable period in 2021, largely driven by favorable weather, including more normalized storm activity in our service territory and healthy economic conditions in the state. The waterfall chart on Slide 8 provides more details on the key year-to-date drivers of our financial performance versus 2021. As Garrick mentioned, our solid year-to-date performance has driven our revised 2022 adjusted EPS guidance, which reflects an increase in the lower end of the range to $2.87 from $2.85. So our 2022 adjusted EPS guidance has now been raised and narrowed of $2.87 to $2.89.

詳細地說，年初至今，我們實現了 6.62 億美元或每股 2.29 美元的調整後淨收入，與 2021 年同期相比增加了每股 0.11 美元，這主要受有利天氣的推動，包括我們服務區域的風暴活動更加正常化，以及該州經濟狀況良好。幻燈片 8 上的瀑布圖提供了與 2021 年相比，我們財務業績的關鍵年初至今驅動因素的更多詳細信息。正如 Garrick 所提到的，我們穩健的年初至今業績推動了我們修訂後的 2022 年調整後每股收益指引，這反映了增長從 2.85 美元跌至 2.87 美元。因此，我們的 2022 年調整後每股收益指引現已上調並從 2.87 美元收窄至 2.89 美元。

As noted, favorable sales continue to be the primary driver of our positive year-over-year variance, largely driven by weather equating to $0.13 per share of positive variance. Our strong sales were partially offset by planned increases in operating and maintenance or O&M expense, largely driven by customer initiatives, which are embedded in rates to improve safety, reliability and our rate of decarbonization to the tune of $0.03 per share of negative variance versus the first 9 months of 2021. It is worth noting that the aforementioned year-over-year increase in O&M expense was partially offset by lower service restoration expense versus the comparable period in 2021 as anticipated.

如前所述，有利的銷售仍然是我們積極的同比差異的主要驅動因素，主要是由天氣驅動，相當於每股正差異 0.13 美元。我們的強勁銷售被運營和維護或 O&M 費用的計劃增加部分抵消，這主要是由客戶計劃推動的，這些計劃包含在提高安全性、可靠性和我們的脫碳率的費率中，與2021 年前 9 個月。值得注意的是，上述 O&M 費用的同比增長被預期的 2021 年可比期間的服務恢復費用降低部分抵消。

Lastly, the $0.01 per share of positive variance in the final year-to-date bucket reflects higher nonweather sales of utility attributable to continued strong commercial and industrial load in our electric business, slightly offset by a drag at the parent from our preferred stock dividends and select regulatory items. As we look to the fourth quarter, we feel quite good about the glide path to achieve our revised full year EPS guidance range. As always, we plan for normal weather, which we estimate will have a positive impact of about $0.08 per share versus the comparable period in 2021.

最後，今年迄今最後一個桶中每股 0.01 美元的正方差反映了由於我們電力業務持續強勁的商業和工業負荷導致公用事業的非天氣銷售增加，略微被我們的優先股股息對母公司的拖累所抵消並選擇監管項目。當我們展望第四季度時，我們對實現修訂後的全年每股收益指導範圍的下滑路徑感到非常滿意。與往常一樣，我們計劃正常天氣，我們估計與 2021 年同期相比，這將對每股產生約 0.08 美元的積極影響。

We're also assuming -- we are also assuming $0.11 per share of positive variance versus the fourth quarter of 2021 attributable to rate relief associated with the October 1 implementation of new rates from our constructive gas rate case settlement earlier this year. And these estimates are stated net of investment-related costs such as depreciation, property taxes and interest expense.

我們還假設 - 我們還假設與 2021 年第四季度相比，每股正方差為 0.11 美元，這歸因於與今年早些時候我們建設性的天然氣費率案件解決方案於 10 月 1 日實施新費率相關的費率減免。這些估計值已扣除與投資相關的成本，如折舊、財產稅和利息費用。

In addition to said cost, our plan assumes increased O&M expense in the fourth quarter versus 2021 for key customer programs such as vegetation management, one of the most effective measures to reduce system outages. And I'll note that we're on course for a record level of vegetation management spend in 2022, given our focus on improving the reliability of our grid. We also expect to continue to benefit from normalized storm activity, which nets to $0.11 per share positive variance versus the comparable period in 2021.

除了上述成本外，我們的計劃還假設與 2021 年相比，第四季度的 O&M 費用增加，用於主要客戶計劃，例如植被管理，這是減少系統中斷的最有效措施之一。我會注意到，鑑於我們專注於提高電網的可靠性，我們將在 2022 年實現創紀錄的植被管理支出水平。我們還預計將繼續受益於標準化風暴活動，與 2021 年可比期間相比，其淨值為每股 0.11 美元的正方差。

To close out our assumptions for the remainder of 2022 and we assume the usual conservative assumptions for our nonutility business and weather normalized load at the utility. We have also maintained a healthy level of contingency given our strong year-to-date performance, which when coupled with our nonutility and load assumptions equates to $0.17 to $0.19 per share, a negative variance highlighted in the penultimate bar of the chart. As such, we have substantial financial flexibility heading into the final 3 months of the year, which increased our confidence in delivering for customers and investors in 2022 and beyond.

為了結束我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的假設，我們假設我們的非公用事業業務和公用事業的天氣正常化負荷通常是保守的假設。鑑於我們年初至今的強勁表現，我們還保持了健康的應急水平，再加上我們的非公用事業和負載假設相當於每股 0.17 美元至 0.19 美元，圖表倒數第二個欄中突出顯示了負方差。因此，我們在今年最後 3 個月擁有很大的財務靈活性，這增強了我們在 2022 年及以後為客戶和投資者提供服務的信心。

Turning to our 2022 financing plan on Slide 9. I'm pleased to report that we have successfully completed our planned financings for the year with $800 million of debt issuances at the utility, priced at a weighted average coupon of 3.9%, which is well below indicative levels in the current environment. And while our plan did not call for any financing at the parent this year, we opportunistically priced approximately $440 million of equity forward contracts during the quarter at a weighted average price of $68 per share. Our timely execution of the equity forwards locks in attractive terms for the parent financing needs of the pending acquisition of the new covert natural gas generation facility. The settlement of the equity forwards will largely occur in the first half of 2023 concurrent with the acquisition timing and in accordance with our recently approved integrated resource plan. Staying on the balance sheet. As we move into the winter heating season, we have preserved a strong liquidity position, which supplements our use of commercial paper. And needless to say, we'll continue to monitor market conditions to try to lock in attractive terms for future financing opportunities at the utility.

關於幻燈片 9 上的 2022 年融資計劃。我很高興地報告，我們已經成功完成了今年計劃的融資，公用事業公司發行了 8 億美元的債務，定價為 3.9% 的加權平均票面利率，這很好在當前環境下低於指示性水平。雖然我們的計劃今年沒有要求母公司進行任何融資，但我們在本季度以每股 68 美元的加權平均價格對約 4.4 億美元的股權遠期合約進行了機會性定價。我們及時執行股權遠期交易，為即將收購的新隱蔽天然氣發電設施的母公司融資需求鎖定了有吸引力的條款。股權遠期的結算將主要發生在 2023 年上半年，與收購時間同步，並符合我們最近批准的綜合資源計劃。留在資產負債表上。隨著我們進入冬季取暖季節，我們保持了強大的流動性頭寸，這補充了我們對商業票據的使用。不用說，我們將繼續監測市場狀況，試圖為公用事業公司未來的融資機會鎖定有吸引力的條款。

Lastly, it's important to highlight that we have no debt maturities or planned financings at the parent in 2023 and virtually no floating rate exposure outside of the utility, which largely insulates our income statement from future interest rate volatility. Our opportunistic prudent financing strategy reduces cost while limiting uncertainty in our cost structure, enabling us to fund our capital plan in a cost-efficient manner for the benefit of customers and investors.

最後，重要的是要強調，我們在 2023 年在母公司沒有債務到期或計劃融資，並且在公用事業之外幾乎沒有浮動利率風險敞口，這在很大程度上使我們的損益表免受未來利率波動的影響。我們的機會主義審慎融資策略降低了成本，同時限制了我們成本結構的不確定性，使我們能夠以具有成本效益的方式為我們的資本計劃提供資金，以造福客戶和投資者。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Maxine to open the lines for Q&A.

有了這個，我會將電話轉回給 Maxine 以打開問答線路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Insoo Kim from Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Insoo Kim。

Thanks for the update. Just first question. I think there's just been a lot of conversation about the recent opening of a docket for the Michigan (inaudible). Could you just give me -- give us an indication of the conversations you've had with the commission kind of where their head's at and what the potential range of outcomes could be here? .

感謝更新。只是第一個問題。我認為最近有很多關於密歇根州立案的討論（聽不清）。你能不能給我 - 告訴我們你與委員會的談話，他們的頭在哪里以及可能的結果範圍是什麼？ .

Yes. Thanks, Insoo, for your question, a couple of things on this. I think it's important to understand, particularly in August here had some storm. We performed well during the storm. But again, it's catching a little media attention. And I think one of the things that's really important to recognize here in Michigan is the impacts the Great Lakes and what Lake Michigan does to the weather and storms. And then also just a longer-term trend we see is increasing wind speeds across Michigan in part due to climate change.

是的。謝謝，Insoo，你的問題，關於這個的幾件事。我認為理解這一點很重要，尤其是八月份這裡有一些風暴。我們在暴風雨中表現良好。但是，它再次引起了媒體的關注。而且我認為在密歇根州需要認識到的真正重要的一件事是五大湖的影響以及密歇根湖對天氣和風暴的影響。然後我們看到的一個長期趨勢是密歇根州的風速增加，部分原因是氣候變化。

And the bottom line is we see a real investment opportunity in resiliency. The commission has been supportive of many of the reliability and resiliency efforts in our electric rate case, but there's more to do, there's more to do in this space. And so I really view this as a collaboration where we can work to. Again, I think we're both the commission and the company are well aligned here in what we need to do in terms of reliability and resiliency. So I really view it as an opportunity where those opportunities are and create the path to improve that for our customers.

最重要的是，我們看到了彈性方面的真正投資機會。該委員會一直支持我們的電價案例中的許多可靠性和彈性工作，但還有更多工作要做，在這個領域還有更多工作要做。所以我真的認為這是我們可以合作的合作。同樣，我認為我們既是委員會，又是公司，在可靠性和彈性方面我們需要做的事情是一致的。因此，我真的將其視為機會所在，並為我們的客戶創造改善這一點的途徑。

Is there any set time line on when we should have more clarity on the outcome from all of this? .

是否有任何設定的時間表來說明我們何時應該更清楚地了解所有這一切的結果？ .

There is a first effort that's due here in November 4. I would imagine the audit takes place over much of the fiscal year of 2023. And again, I see that as a collaborative effort. We want the same thing. We have the same goal and it's really aligned to make sure we have all the right measures and investments in place to achieve that goal and they're at the right speed and pacing. .

第一次努力將於 11 月 4 日在這裡進行。我想審計將在 2023 財年的大部分時間進行。我再次將其視為協作努力。我們想要同樣的東西。我們有相同的目標，並且確實一致，以確保我們擁有所有正確的措施和投資來實現該目標，並且它們以正確的速度和節奏進行。 .

Got it. My last question, just thank you for the preliminary guidance on '23 and pointing to that upper end. Should we think of the Covert acquisition and the financing all embedded in that upper end. And I guess what potential items could deviate from that range even if it could be a potential upside from there?

知道了。我的最後一個問題，只是感謝您對 23 年的初步指導並指出這一點。我們是否應該考慮一下隱蔽收購和融資都嵌入到高端。而且我猜有哪些潛在項目可能會偏離該範圍，即使它可能是一個潛在的上行空間？

Yes. The short answer is yes, on Covert and the financing is in that piece. But I'm going to just step back and think of the bigger picture here. And so how I think about this and how we think about this as a company. So this guidance here is 6% to 8%, and we expect toward the high end. We really think that offers a premium across this sector, and we've been doing this for 20 years of industry-leading financial performance. And then I think what's unique about us, and again, differentiates us as a strength, and frankly, a premium is that we rebase off of actual. So we do this time and time again.

是的。簡短的回答是肯定的，在隱蔽和融資是在那一塊。但我要退後一步，想想這裡的大局。所以我是如何看待這件事的，以及我們作為一家公司是如何看待這件事的。所以這裡的指導是 6% 到 8%，我們預計會達到高端。我們真的認為這為整個行業提供了溢價，並且我們已經這樣做了 20 年，取得了行業領先的財務業績。然後我認為我們的獨特之處再次將我們區分為優勢，坦率地說，溢價是我們從實際出發。所以我們一次又一次地這樣做。

And so we're not in the sugar highs. It's a long-term play where we're going to continue to deliver 6% to 8% toward the high end. And so I feel good. We feel good about the guidance we've offered here today at $3.05 to $3.11. One more thing on this. I want to make sure everyone understands, too, that this is an important balance, a balance of our customers, other stakeholders like regulators and legislators as well as you, our investors.

所以我們沒有處於高糖狀態。這是一個長期的遊戲，我們將繼續向高端提供 6% 到 8% 的收益。所以我感覺很好。我們對今天在這裡提供的 3.05 美元至 3.11 美元的指導感到滿意。還有一件事。我想確保每個人也都明白，這是一個重要的平衡，是我們的客戶、監管機構和立法者等其他利益相關者以及我們的投資者的平衡。

Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shar Pourreza。

So just a question on IRA, I guess, how impacted your thoughts around the IRP. I mean clearly, you guys highlighted the customer benefits and lower cost of solar. But does it or can it trigger I guess, any sort of revision to the plan as it currently stands? Garrick, I think you may have alluded to a little bit of that in the prepared. And in particular, do you have any sort of tax equity embedded in renewable spending? And do you have any opportunity to avoid tax equity where we could see a potential increase in rate base?

所以只是關於 IRA 的一個問題，我猜，你對 IRP 的想法有什麼影響。我的意思很清楚，你們強調了太陽能的客戶利益和較低的成本。但是，我猜它是否或可以觸發對當前計劃的任何形式的修改？加里克，我想你可能已經在準備中提到了一點。特別是，您是否在可再生能源支出中嵌入了某種稅收權益？您是否有機會避免稅收公平，我們可以看到稅率基數可能增加？

I'll tag team this with Rejji here. This IRA is really beneficial for our industry and beneficial for our customers. And so as you know, we've laid out our IRP to 8 gigawatts, the storage build, it's a nice plan. And we go in every 3 to 5 years to revise that. And so in the short term, I really see the benefit of the IRA in this production tax credit flowing right to our customers. That's the $60 million per year versus plan. And so that, again, keeps our customers' cost low, frankly.

我將在這裡與 Rejji 標記團隊。這個 IRA 對我們的行業和我們的客戶都非常有益。如您所知，我們已將 IRP 設置為 8 吉瓦，存儲構建，這是一個不錯的計劃。我們每 3 到 5 年進行一次修改。所以在短期內，我真的看到愛爾蘭共和軍在這種生產稅收抵免中的好處流向我們的客戶。這是每年 6000 萬美元與計劃的對比。坦率地說，這再次使我們的客戶成本保持在較低水平。

And remember, this IRP had $600 million of savings already baked in over that, and this is incremental to that. So again, we feel good about that. In respect to my other comments, we'll file, refile our IRP in 3 to 5 years. And with this -- with the IRA, there's upside opportunities in terms of -- our tailwind opportunities in terms of pulling renewables forward, potentially pulling storage forward. We'll have to take a look at that. Again, I see this as a real advantage to utility-owned solar and storage versus PPAs.

請記住，這個 IRP 已經節省了 6 億美元，而且這是增量的。再說一次，我們對此感覺很好。關於我的其他評論，我們將在 3 到 5 年內提交、重新提交我們的 IRP。有了這個 - 與愛爾蘭共和軍一起，我們在推動可再生能源方面有上行機會，可能會推動存儲。我們得看看那個。同樣，我認為這是公用事業擁有的太陽能和存儲與 PPA 相比的真正優勢。

I know, Rejji, you may have additional comments. .

我知道，Rejji，您可能還有其他意見。 .

Yes, sure. I would only add a couple of comments here. The other benefit, too, is just with the continuation of the tax credit for electric vehicles, well, that certainly could be a catalyst in accelerating the tipping point. of electric vehicle proliferation in Michigan and obviously, that would bring rate benefits as well because you're growing the denominator in that rate calculation, bring kilowatt hours into Michigan, which we would welcome.

是的，當然。我只想在這裡添加一些評論。另一個好處也是電動汽車稅收抵免的延續，這當然可以成為加速臨界點的催化劑。密歇根州電動汽車的普及，顯然，這也會帶來費率收益，因為您正在增加該費率計算中的分母，將千瓦時帶入密歇根州，我們將對此表示歡迎。

So there's a benefit there that should be, at some point, incorporated into our financials longer term. With respect to your question around financing, we are not presupposing any tax equity in our funding strategy. So the IRA, there's been a lot of talk about the transferability of credits. I still think there's more guidance required from the IRS and we'll see what type of market develops as a result of transferability of credits. We certainly do have credits that we can monetize at some point. But at the moment, we're not presupposing any tax equity in our financing assumptions.

所以有一個好處，應該在某個時候納入我們的長期財務狀況。關於您關於融資的問題，我們沒有在我們的融資策略中預設任何稅收公平。所以愛爾蘭共和軍，有很多關於學分可轉讓性的討論。我仍然認為美國國稅局需要更多指導，我們將看到由於信用可轉移性而發展的市場類型。我們當然有可以在某個時候獲利的積分。但目前，我們並未在融資假設中預設任何稅收公平。

Okay. Got it. Sorry, Garrick, just a quick follow-up. Just I guess you guys have never had a shortage of capital growth opportunities, right? It's always been a function of bills and rates being kind of the governor, customer rates. I guess the $60 million incremental in customer savings, does that allow a pull forward of some of that spend because you have that incremental headroom? Or do we have to wait for the additional IRP filing? I guess I'm just trying to figure out how that plays in.

好的。知道了。抱歉，加里克，只是快速跟進。只是我猜你們從來不缺少資本增長機會，對吧？賬單和費率一直是州長和客戶費率的一種功能。我想這 6000 萬美元的客戶儲蓄增量，是否可以因為您擁有增量空間而減少部分支出？還是我們必須等待額外的 IRP 申請？我想我只是想弄清楚它是如何發揮作用的。

Yes, I don't think you have to wait until the IRP filing for that. It's really a function of how we build out our capital plan. And as we've shared historically, we look at what the customer can afford. We look at how can we execute work. We look at the business cases, we look at the mix, where we put in dollars strategically. So there's a bottom-up buildup for that capital plan.

是的，我認為您不必等到 IRP 提交申請。這實際上是我們如何制定資本計劃的一個功能。正如我們在歷史上所分享的那樣，我們著眼於客戶能夠負擔得起的東西。我們看看如何執行工作。我們著眼於商業案例，我們著眼於組合，我們戰略性地投入資金。因此，該資本計劃有一個自下而上的積累。

And so as we're able to create more headroom or as we have, in the case of a (inaudible) bills, we'll look at how do we put those important capital investments into the system and ultimately provide value for our customers. And so that's the balance will strike. And you'll see it as it plays out here in Q4 call in the 5-year capital plan.

因此，當我們能夠創造更多淨空時，或者在（聽不清）賬單的情況下，我們將研究如何將這些重要的資本投資投入系統並最終為我們的客戶提供價值。所以這就是平衡。你會在 5 年資本計劃的第四季度電話會議中看到它。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe just a quick 1 for Reggie. Just I guess beyond the Covert purchase as you guys are looking at your 5-year plan enrolling in more IRP spending into plan, including renewables, do you anticipate any associated financing need or the issuance last quarter took care of those needs as we're thinking about the current plan and slightly beyond the current plan, I guess? .

好的。完美的。然後對於雷吉來說可能只是一個快速的 1。只是我猜想除了秘密購買之外，你們正在考慮將更多 IRP 支出納入計劃（包括可再生能源）的 5 年計劃，您是否預計任何相關的融資需求或上個季度的發行滿足了這些需求，因為我們是考慮當前的計劃並稍微超出當前的計劃，我猜？ .

Yes. So I appreciate the question, Shar. And just for semantics, we haven't issued the equity yet. We just put in place forward contracts. And so we've locked in a price, we'll issue, obviously, over the course of 2023 and the first half of the year. But the forwards we've put in place really provide for the funding for the parent financing needs at Covert, we have yet to roll out obviously a new 5-year plan, but the current plan of $14.3 billion that we're executing on. As you may recall, we've been very consistent in our comments about the equity funding needs being limited to 2025 and 2026, so about $250 million per year in those outer years.

是的。所以我很欣賞這個問題，Shar。而且只是為了語義，我們還沒有發行股權。我們剛剛簽訂了遠期合約。所以我們已經鎖定了一個價格，很明顯，我們將在 2023 年和上半年發布。但是我們實施的遠期計劃確實為 Covert 的母公司融資需求提供了資金，我們顯然還沒有推出一個新的 5 年計劃，但我們正在執行的當前計劃是 143 億美元。您可能還記得，我們在評論中一直非常一致地將股權融資需求限制在 2025 年和 2026 年，因此在這些年之外的年份每年約為 2.5 億美元。

And because of the sale of the bank last year, there's no equity needs prior to that. And so we'll see what happens when we state the capital plan. And in addition to the comments Garrick offered on how we think about the capital plan, affordability is a constraint we mindful of. The other one is financing, and we don't want to over-lever or over-equitize the balance sheet. So we'll be mindful of that. And then obviously, just execution and feasibility of the capital plan -- of executing on the capital plan is the other thing we'll think through.

而且由於去年出售了該銀行，在此之前沒有股權需求。因此，我們將看看當我們陳述資本計劃時會發生什麼。除了加里克就我們如何看待資本計劃提出的意見外，負擔能力是我們注意的一個限制因素。另一個是融資，我們不想過度槓桿化或過度平衡資產負債表。所以我們會注意這一點。顯然，資本計劃的執行和可行性——執行資本計劃是我們要考慮的另一件事。

Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

Just want to talk a bit more on 2023 EPS guide here, if you could, the drivers. I'm just wondering if you could flesh out for us the contribution you see from Covert in '23. And when you're thinking about sales trends. What do you anticipate for sales trends for '23? How does that compare to kind of current trends? Just trying to get a feel for upside versus downside drivers within the guidance range.

如果可以的話，只想在這裡多談談 2023 EPS 指南。我只是想知道您是否可以為我們充實您在 23 年從 Covert 看到的貢獻。當您考慮銷售趨勢時。您對 23 年的銷售趨勢有何預期？這與當前的趨勢相比如何？只是試圖在指導範圍內了解上行與下行驅動因素。

Sure. I'll start, and I know Reg will offer some context around it as well. So again, I want to remind everybody, as I stated earlier here that it's 6% to 8% towards the high end, and we're pleased with that. And that includes Covert. As we've said, the Covert strengthens and lengthens our plan here. And so when I think about this, this is again, we're playing a long-term game here, where we have this consistency and repeatability of delivering industry-leading financial performance.

當然。我將開始，我知道 Reg 也會提供一些有關它的背景信息。因此，我想再次提醒大家，正如我之前在這裡所說的那樣，高端市場有 6% 到 8%，我們對此感到滿意。這包括隱蔽。正如我們所說，隱秘強化並延長了我們在這裡的計劃。因此，當我想到這一點時，這又是一次，我們在這裡玩的是一場長期的遊戲，我們有這種一致性和可重複性來提供行業領先的財務業績。

And so that's how we're thinking about it as we move in 2023 and then even in the outer years. But Rejji, you walk through some of the specifics, please.

因此，這就是我們在 2023 年甚至是更遠的年份開始思考它的方式。但是 Rejji，請您詳細介紹一些細節。

Yes, sure. So Jeremy, again, I appreciate the question. The Covert acquisition, as we discussed, I think, in Q2 of this year, we anticipate that being about $0.03 to $0.04 of EPS upside versus plan. And then the financing for the equity should offer $0.01 or $0.02 on top of that. And so that's all incorporated into the guide, as Garrick mentioned. And so we could spend more time on the details of that. But that's what's embedded in that $3.05 to $3.11 guide. With respect to sales, as you know, we plan conservatively and so we're assuming as it pertains to weather, that clearly this year so far has been quite good. And so we would anticipate a little bit of a headwind just planning for normal weather versus what is a strong 2022 comp. On the non-weather side, we've been surprised to the upside really starting [pandemic]. And so we've just seen a nice bit of upside in terms of favorable mix with residential load, outperforming expectations the last couple of years. We'll plan conservatively and still assume that you see that pre-pandemic level of residential load.

是的，當然。所以傑里米，我再次感謝這個問題。正如我們所討論的，我認為，在今年第二季度，隱蔽收購，我們預計每股收益比計劃上漲約 0.03 美元至 0.04 美元。然後股權融資應該提供 0.01 美元或 0.02 美元。正如 Garrick 所提到的，所有這些都包含在指南中。所以我們可以花更多的時間在細節上。但這就是嵌入在 3.05 美元到 3.11 美元指南中的內容。如您所知，關於銷售，我們保守地計劃，因此我們假設與天氣有關，顯然今年到目前為止已經相當不錯了。因此，我們預計僅計劃正常天氣與 2022 年的強勁天氣相比會有一點逆風。在非天氣方面，我們對真正開始 [大流行] 的上行空間感到驚訝。因此，我們剛剛看到住宅負荷的有利組合有很大的上升空間，超過了過去幾年的預期。我們將保守地進行計劃，並且仍然假設您看到大流行前的住宅負荷水平。

And again, I think we're seeing very good momentum on the commercial and industrial side, and we would expect that to carry on into 2023. And so those are the puts and takes with respect to Covert and sales.

再說一次，我認為我們在商業和工業方面看到了非常好的勢頭，我們預計這種勢頭將持續到 2023 年。所以這些是關於隱蔽和銷售的看跌期權。

The only thing I would add, just to just finish out on the drivers for 2023 is that clearly, we had a constructive gas rate case settlement earlier this year. And so we should expect to see the benefit of that increase in rates, which went effective October 1 of this year, start to flow into the heating season in Q1 of next year. So for the first 3 or 4 months, of 2023. And then we've got a pending electric rate case and anticipate a constructive outcome there as well. So those are kind of the primary drivers. You got Covert, you've got conservatism on sales, you've got then the rate relief that we anticipate from constructive outcomes. Is that helpful?

我唯一要補充的是，為了完成 2023 年的驅動程序，很明顯，我們在今年早些時候達成了建設性的汽油費率案件解決方案。因此，我們應該期待看到今年 10 月 1 日生效的費率上漲帶來的好處將開始流入明年第一季度的供暖季節。因此，在 2023 年的前 3 或 4 個月。然後我們有一個懸而未決的電價案例，並預計那裡也會有建設性的結果。所以這些是主要的驅動因素。你有隱蔽，你有銷售的保守主義，你得到了我們從建設性結果中預期的利率減免。這有幫助嗎？

Yes. No, that's very helpful. And I just wanted to pivot a little bit to battery storage, if I could. Just wondering if you could provide some more thoughts on how you think the system needs could potentially change over this decade, especially if renewable penetration ticks higher than planned from IRA benefits? And is there anything else you're watching out for on this front? .

是的。不，這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我只是想稍微轉向電池存儲。只是想知道您是否可以就您認為系統需求在這十年中可能發生的變化提供更多想法，特別是如果可再生能源滲透率高於 IRA 福利的計劃？在這方面你還有什麼要注意的嗎？ .

Thanks, Jeremy. That's a great question. So in our IRP, we have 75 megawatts and that has to take place in '24 to 2027. And we've already issued the RFP for that work. And so that's well underway. And so you'll see inclusion of that in our 5-year capital plan. But clearly, what is nice about this ITC and the flexibility that's offered within the IRA is you can have stand-alone solar. So typically, it's been coupled with solar. And so the ability to move storage around and have it be not just a supply asset, but have it be a grid asset, provides a greater amount of flexibility in how we use. And as you can see, like the value stacking of a storage of lithium Ion and other storage technologies.

謝謝，傑里米。這是一個很好的問題。所以在我們的 IRP 中，我們有 75 兆瓦，這必須在 24 到 2027 年進行。我們已經為這項工作發布了 RFP。所以這一切都在順利進行。因此，您會看到將其包含在我們的 5 年資本計劃中。但很明顯，這個 ITC 和 IRA 提供的靈活性的好處是你可以擁有獨立的太陽能。所以通常情況下，它與太陽能相結合。因此，移動存儲並使其不僅僅是供應資產，而是成為電網資產的能力，為我們的使用方式提供了更大的靈活性。正如你所看到的，就像鋰離子存儲和其他存儲技術的價值疊加一樣。

And so we look forward to that. We're going to continue to look at our 5-year plan, but also in the longer-term strategy. and how we might accelerate or how we might think about differently the deployment of lithium Ion and other storage technologies. And I know Rejji has some comments on this as well.

所以我們很期待。我們將繼續關注我們的 5 年計劃，以及長期戰略。以及我們如何加速或如何以不同的方式考慮鋰離子和其他存儲技術的部署。我知道 Rejji 對此也有一些評論。

Jeremy, the only thing I would add is it's important to remember that the IRP is iterative in nature. And so we'll be filing 1 per the statute at a minimum every 5 years, but our bias will likely be to file sooner than that. And so the importance of that and the benefit of it is that as we see a potential descent in the cost curve, whether to Garrick's point, it's lithium-ion or any other storage technology, we can incorporate new assumptions in upcoming IRPs.

Jeremy，我唯一要補充的是，重要的是要記住 IRP 本質上是迭代的。因此，我們將至少每 5 年根據法規提交 1 份文件，但我們的偏見可能會比這更早提交。因此，這一點的重要性和好處在於，當我們看到成本曲線的潛在下降時，無論是對 Garrick 的觀點，它是鋰離子還是任何其他存儲技術，我們都可以在即將到來的 IRP 中納入新的假設。

And so we're assuming in the full plan over the next 15 to 20 years, about 550 megawatts that Garrick noted the 75 megawatts in the short term, but it's a larger portfolio longer term. And again, if the cost curve permits it, we'll look to pull some of that forward and potentially expand it, particularly with the optionality provided with the ITC using it for stand-alone storage as well as opting out of normalization, which is helpful, too.

因此，我們在未來 15 到 20 年的完整計劃中假設大約 550 兆瓦，Garrick 在短期內註意到 75 兆瓦，但從長遠來看，這是一個更大的投資組合。再一次，如果成本曲線允許，我們將尋求推動其中的一些並可能擴大它，特別是 ITC 提供的可選性，將其用於獨立存儲以及選擇退出標準化，即也很有幫助。

Got it. That's helpful. And just a real quick last one, if I could. Just wondering what the potential impacts for rate payers could be, should Palisades successful reopen? And does this change how you think about future customer savings should this transpire? .

知道了。這很有幫助。如果可以的話，只是一個真正快速的最後一個。只是想知道對納稅人的潛在影響是什麼，如果 Palisades 成功重新開放？如果發生這種情況，這是否會改變您對未來客戶節省的看法？ .

Well, I offer a couple of comments on Palisades. So if we get into technical questions, like we don't own the plant, we don't operate the plant anymore, and we no longer have a purchase power agreement, which was a significant savings for our customers and power supply costs over the course of the year. So technical questions and related questions that should be really directed to Holtec or maybe the Department of Energy and the like.

好吧，我對 Palisades 提出幾點意見。因此，如果我們遇到技術問題，例如我們不擁有該工廠，我們不再運營該工廠，並且我們不再有購買電力協議，這為我們的客戶和電力供應成本節省了大量資金。一年的課程。因此，應該真正針對 Holtec 或能源部等部門提出技術問題和相關問題。

But bottom line, here's what we've shared with the Governor's office and with the Michigan Public Service Commission. We'll be open to purchase power agreement. It has to be much more competitive and much more market-based than it has been historically. And we would expect a financial compensation mechanism on that PPA as a new purchase power agreement. So that's really what I'd offer on Palisades at this point.

但最重要的是，這是我們與州長辦公室和密歇根公共服務委員會分享的內容。我們將對購買電力協議持開放態度。它必須比歷史上更具競爭力和市場化程度。我們希望該 PPA 的經濟補償機製作為新的購買力協議。所以這就是我現在在 Palisades 上提供的內容。

Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Listen, just maybe just starting -- just starting with preliminary, right? I want to focus on that word. Can you emphasize or can you can you piece apart why you used the word preliminary at the outset? What are the moving pieces in your mind, if we can go back to that quickly in terms of when you pivot to a more finalized guidance and what you're watching here in the next few months? I just want to clarify that.

聽著，也許才剛剛開始——剛剛開始，對吧？我想專注於這個詞。你能強調一下，或者你能不能解釋一下你一開始使用初步這個詞的原因？如果我們可以快速回到您何時轉向更最終的指導以及您在接下來的幾個月中在這裡觀看的內容方面，那麼您腦海中的移動部分是什麼？我只是想澄清一下。

Yes, preliminary because we rebase off actuals, and that's the short of it. And so as we wrap up Q4, which, again, at year-end, I feel good about will deliver within that guidance range we've provided, and then we'll rebase off actuals. And so when I think about this year and this guidance, of course, we've tightened the guidance, raised the bottom end, which should be an indicator of confidence. I'm really thinking about the midpoint of that guidance.

是的，初步的，因為我們根據實際情況重新調整，這就是它的不足之處。因此，當我們結束第四季度時，再次，在年底，我覺得很高興將在我們提供的指導範圍內交付，然後我們將根據實際情況重新調整。所以當我想到今年和這個指導時，當然，我們已經收緊了指導，提高了底線，這應該是信心的一個指標。我真的在考慮那個指導的中點。

And again, managing the work. So imagine storms and other things that come our way that we typically deal with. And then we'll look for reinvestment opportunities also as we go through the remainder of the year. And those reinvestment opportunities derisk 2023 and ensure a path to success for 2023. And so that's how it will play out through the remainder of the year. I don't know if Rejji, do you want to add to that?

再次，管理工作。所以想像一下我們通常處理的風暴和其他事情。然後我們將在今年剩餘時間裡尋找再投資機會。而這些再投資機會會在 2023 年消亡，並確保在 2023 年取得成功。這就是它在今年剩餘時間裡的表現。我不知道Rejji，你想補充一下嗎？

Julien, the only thing I would add in addition to just it's Q3 and we'll rebase off of actuals in Q4 and take into account any contingency deployment over the next couple of months. But the other variables is obviously we have a pending electric rate case, and so we'll have a little bit -- a couple of months more of visibility into how that's trending. We're certainly in the process of evaluating potential settlement. And so we'll see how things go there.

Julien，除了第三季度之外，我唯一要補充的是，我們將根據第四季度的實際情況進行調整，並考慮未來幾個月的任何應急部署。但其他變量顯然是我們有一個懸而未決的電價案例，所以我們會有一點——幾個月的時間來了解它的趨勢。我們當然正在評估潛在的解決方案。因此，我們將看看那裡的情況如何。

And then at that point, we will have filed the gas rate case. And so we're still thinking through the size and implications of that, and we'll assume a constructive outcome there, but still some variable in place. So that's the other bit of information we'd look for as we establish our 2023 final guidance on our Q4 call early next year.

然後到那時，我們將提交燃氣費率案件。所以我們仍在考慮它的規模和影響，我們將在那裡假設一個建設性的結果，但仍然存在一些變量。因此，這是我們在明年初在第四季度電話會議上建立 2023 年最終指導時要尋找的另一點信息。

Got it. Okay. All right. Fair enough. And then if I can, just going back to the last question a little bit. Can you talk about how any revisit of a contract with Holtec and their Palisades, could actually feasibly play itself out vis-a-vis your IRP and/or RFP processes? Obviously, it's a little bit less than traditional. I get that DOE's involvement is also less than traditional, but I just want to rehash a little bit like how that would fit into your ongoing processes that are continually in flighted admittedly of late have somewhat been crystallized at least in the near term? .

知道了。好的。好的。很公平。如果可以的話，稍微回到最後一個問題。您能否談談與 Holtec 及其 Palisades 簽訂的合同的任何重新審視，實際上如何在您的 IRP 和/或 RFP 流程中發揮作用？顯然，它比傳統的要少一些。我知道 DOE 的參與也比傳統的少，但我只是想重新討論一下，這將如何適應你正在進行的流程，這些流程在最近一段時間內一直在進行，至少在短期內有所具體化？ .

So just for context, I know you know this, Julien, but for context for others on the call, there's 700 megawatts within this IRP, that's 500 megawatts is dispatchable, 200 megawatts of clean energy. That RFP has been issued. It was issued at the end of September. That's going to play out. It's done through a third party because of the potential for an affiliate transaction with the DIG. So that plays out. We anticipate those proposals to be submitted in the December time frame. Those will be evaluated again by the third party. That will take just February.

就上下文而言，我知道你知道這一點，Julien，但對於電話會議中的其他人來說，這個 IRP 中有 700 兆瓦，即 500 兆瓦是可調度的，200 兆瓦的清潔能源。該 RFP 已發布。它於 9 月底發布。這將發揮作用。這是通過第三方完成的，因為有可能與 DIG 進行關聯交易。這樣就可以了。我們預計這些提案將在 12 月的時間範圍內提交。這些將由第三方再次評估。那隻需要二月。

And then we anticipate, we'll have some direction in that in the May time frame. I'll likely share it at the May earnings call time line. So that's how it's going to play out. I do not know who will participate in that. Again, it's by a third party. Should Holtec choose to participate with the Palisades plant, and if it comes in at a competitive price, it may be an option out there. And again, because it's not an affiliate, we would earn a financial compensation mechanism or a return on that. So that's the approach that would be we play out here over the course part of the next 8 months.

然後我們預計，我們將在 5 月的時間框架內有一些方向。我可能會在 5 月的收益電話會議時間線上分享它。所以這就是它的發展方式。我不知道誰會參與其中。再次，它是由第三方。如果 Holtec 選擇參與 Palisades 工廠，並且價格具有競爭力，那麼它可能是一個選擇。再一次，因為它不是附屬公司，我們將獲得經濟補償機製或回報。這就是我們將在接下來的 8 個月的課程部分中採用的方法。

Our next question comes from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 David Arcaro。

You alluded to it, but just any latest thinking on the electric rate case and potential for settlement? And then I was just curious what timing you would be contemplating for the next electric rate case filing at this point in terms of the gap between the rate cases here? .

你提到了它，但是關於電費案例和解決潛力的最新想法？然後我只是好奇，就這裡的費率案例之間的差距而言，此時您打算在什麼時間提交下一個電費案例？ .

Well, just a little background, too. And so I was really pleased with the team. And we did a lot of work on this electric rate case to improve the quality of the case. And I believe and see it's evident in the fast position on that. It's a constructive starting point that they provided in August. And so as Rejji shared, we're looking at the potential for electric rate case settlement. And so that will continue until the case is final. We anticipate PFD in December and then a final order in February. So that's the current status.

好吧，也只是一點背景。所以我對團隊非常滿意。我們在這個電費案例上做了很多工作，以提高案例的質量。我相信並看到這一點在快速位置上很明顯。這是他們在 8 月提供的建設性起點。正如 Rejji 所分享的，我們正在研究電價案件解決的潛力。所以這將一直持續到案件結束。我們預計 12 月的 PFD 和 2 月的最終訂單。所以這就是現在的狀態。

And then just the longer we have the opportunity, we're on 10-month cycle. And so it will be in really in 2023, would we consider another filing, another electric rate case. And that's a little far out of us in terms of we got to want to see how this one plays out and make sure we're making the right investments for our customers.

然後我們有機會的時間越長，我們就處於 10 個月的周期。所以它真的會在 2023 年出現，我們是否會考慮另一個文件，另一個電費案例。這離我們有點遠，因為我們想看看這個結果如何，並確保我們為客戶做出正確的投資。

Yes, that makes sense. And I was just wondering if you could give the latest in terms of -- what you're seeing in terms of cost pressures from inflation, whether it be labor materials components and just how that's impacting the O&M outlook here? .

是的，這是有道理的。我只是想知道你是否可以提供最新的 - 你所看到的通脹成本壓力，是否是勞動力材料組件以及這如何影響這裡的 O&M 前景？ .

That's a great question. And I appreciate you started with our customers. So that's a key piece. And so just let me give you a little fact here to this. And so in 2021, we had $75 million of state, federal and some company funds that went to our customers. In 2022, that number was $79 million. And again, just for context, October to October is the fiscal year for state. And so I'm really pleased that we've been able to get money in the hands of our customers. And you'll see from a quarter, our customers have a lower debt balance or bad debt balance on their bills.

這是一個很好的問題。我感謝您從我們的客戶開始。所以這是一個關鍵部分。所以讓我在這裡給你一個小事實。因此，在 2021 年，我們有 7500 萬美元的州、聯邦和一些公司資金流向了我們的客戶。 2022 年，這一數字為 7900 萬美元。同樣，僅就上下文而言，10 月至 10 月是州財政年度。所以我真的很高興我們能夠從客戶手中拿到錢。你會從一個季度看到，我們的客戶的賬單上的債務餘額或壞賬餘額較低。

We're not carrying a big balance. And in fact, from an uncollectibles perspective, we're in quartile 1 position. So I feel good because our customers are starting out in a better position. Now I'm certainly empathetic and sympathetic to their needs. And so what we know about our customers, when we look at their bill, about 80% of the gas bill is consumption. It's about 90% on electric bill. We can influence that -- we can influence that through our energy waste reduction, energy efficiency programs, and we are doing that. And that's great for our customers. In addition, we're about 30,000 thermostat. The thermostats for those that are most in need, vulnerable customers to help them, again, control the use.

我們沒有進行很大的平衡。事實上，從不可收藏品的角度來看，我們處於第 1 位。所以我感覺很好，因為我們的客戶一開始就處於更好的位置。現在，我當然對他們的需求表示同情和同情。因此，我們對客戶的了解，當我們查看他們的賬單時，大約 80% 的燃氣賬單是消費。大約是電費的90%。我們可以影響這一點——我們可以通過減少能源浪費、能源效率計劃來影響這一點，我們正在這樣做。這對我們的客戶來說非常棒。另外，我們大約有30,000個恆溫器。恆溫器為最需要幫助的弱勢客戶提供幫助，再次控制使用。

We're pushing again with nonprofits and other state and federal funds. And so our focus is clearly on our most vulnerable customers in this time. And then broadly, as a company, and you asked the question really, have we seen material prices increase, absolutely, 7% year-over-year. But there's a lot of things we're doing to mitigate that. particularly in the CE Way, $50 million of O&M waste reduction, $90 million -- approaching $90 million on a capital perspective. Our plants ran just again -- they ran phenomenally over the summer months. They got a low heat rate, gas and coal. MISO was bouncing all around the volatility of the market.

我們再次與非營利組織以及其他州和聯邦基金一起推動。因此，我們的重點顯然是此時我們最脆弱的客戶。然後從廣義上講，作為一家公司，你真的問了這個問題，我們是否看到材料價格同比上漲了 7%。但是我們正在做很多事情來緩解這種情況。特別是在 CE Way 中，減少了 5000 萬美元的 O&M 浪費，9000 萬美元——從資本角度來看接近 9000 萬美元。我們的工廠再次運行——它們在夏季的幾個月裡運行得非常好。他們得到了低熱量，天然氣和煤炭。 MISO 在市場的波動中反彈。

Cars were steady state. We saved our customers $500 million year-to-date. It looks like $700 million by year-end. Again, we used our gas assets, all these storage fields to help manage gas cost impact. So those are the here and now. And then we have a whole host of episodic cost savings $200 million Palisades for PPA, Palisades [PPA fell, Karn -- retires] Karn 1 and 2 retires, $30 million of O&M there. So IRA in that PTC, Again, I can go on and on.

汽車處於穩定狀態。年初至今，我們為客戶節省了 5 億美元。到年底，它看起來像 7 億美元。同樣，我們使用我們的天然氣資產，所有這些存儲領域來幫助管理天然氣成本影響。所以這些就是此時此地。然後，我們為 PPA 節省了 2 億美元的 Palisades，Palisades [PPA 下降，Karn -- 退休] Karn 1 和 2 退休，那裡有 3000 萬美元的 O&M。所以 PTC 中的 IRA，我可以繼續說下去。

You can see we're squarely focused cost reduction for our customers, creating the necessary headroom so we make the right investments to improve the system, again, for our customers to manage that. And I know Rejji has even more to offer.

您可以看到我們完全專注於為我們的客戶降低成本，創造必要的淨空，因此我們做出正確的投資來改進系統，再次讓我們的客戶管理它。我知道 Rejji 可以提供更多。

Yes. Garrick, I think you covered all the key points on the cost side. The only thing I'll remind you, David, is that we're still looking at load opportunities as well. The announcement of Gotion, from an economic development perspective, the global electric vehicle battery manufacturer out of China. That as we see it is the beginning of what is going to be likely a fruitful period of good economic development opportunities as a result of the good legislation passed over the past several months, the CHIPS Act and the IRA have really created a once-in-a-generation opportunity to bring really good load opportunities to Michigan and that helps the equation as well.

是的。 Garrick，我認為你涵蓋了成本方面的所有關鍵點。大衛，我唯一要提醒你的是，我們仍在尋找加載機會。國泰科技宣布，從經濟發展的角度來看，全球電動汽車電池製造商退出中國。正如我們所看到的，由於過去幾個月通過了良好的立法，這可能是一個富有成效的良好經濟發展機會時期的開始，芯片法案和愛爾蘭共和軍確實創造了一個一次性的-一代機會為密歇根州帶來非常好的負載機會，這也有助於平衡。

And I mentioned earlier some of the benefits of the IRA if it accelerates the tipping point for EV proliferation in Michigan that helps the load equation as well. And so we're looking at all the cost opportunities as Garrick enumerated, but we're also looking at top line as well to reduce rates.

我之前提到過 IRA 的一些好處，如果它加速了密歇根州電動汽車擴散的臨界點，這也有助於負載方程。因此，我們正在研究 Garrick 列舉的所有成本機會，但我們也在考慮降低費率。

Our next question comes from Travis Miller from Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星的 Travis Miller。

I was just wondering you highlighted, obviously, the business load, the GC coming in, the industrial load. What does that mean in terms of mix of capital investment need or any kind of other need when you were thinking about distribution versus generation? Is that type of load something where you'll get more distribution investment to serve it or more generation type investment to serve it?

我只是想知道你強調了，顯然，業務負載，GC 進來，工業負載。當您考慮分配與發電時，就資本投資需求或任何其他需求的組合而言，這意味著什麼？這種類型的負載是你將獲得更多的配電投資來服務它還是更多的發電類型投資來服務它？

It's a little bit of both, but the immediate piece is really in the space of distribution. So these companies are located here, like if you take HSC as an example, or Hemlock semiconductor, they're building out that load right now. And so we're looking at the existing substation, how do we offer additional redundancy and build out. In the case of Gotion, again, they're constructing their facility, so a little further behind from a start point. But again, you're going to be running electric line and build a substation dedicated to that facility. And so the first steps really show up in the distribution space for investments, and you'll see those as part of our 5-year capital plan to be able to, again, build and construct those.

兩者都有一點點，但直接的部分實際上是在分發空間中。因此，這些公司都位於這裡，例如，如果您以 HSC 或 Hemlock 半導體為例，它們現在正在增加負載。所以我們正在研究現有的變電站，我們如何提供額外的冗餘和擴建。再一次，在 Gotion 的情況下，他們正在建造他們的設施，所以離起點有點遠。但同樣，您將運行電力線並建立一個專用於該設施的變電站。因此，第一步真正出現在投資的分配空間中，你會看到這些是我們 5 年資本計劃的一部分，以便能夠再次建造和建造這些。

And then really there's a beautiful part of the integrated resource plan. We continue to look out 20 years and balance the demand needs and the supply needs. And right now, we look long on capacity, really through 2031. So we have room to grow and add these investments. But as that -- as Michigan continues to grow, we continue to [add load,] we will make adjustments as we move forward in our subsequent IRPs from a supply side. Is that helpful, Travis?

然後真的有綜合資源計劃的一個美麗的部分。我們繼續展望 20 年，平衡需求和供應需求。現在，我們看好產能，一直到 2031 年。所以我們有增長空間和增加這些投資。但是，隨著密歇根州的持續增長，我們將繼續[增加負載]，隨著我們從供應方的後續 IRP 中向前推進，我們將進行調整。有幫助嗎，特拉維斯？

Our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Anthony Crowdell。

Congratulations on the great quarter. And I apologize, this is real semantics. I understand if you just want to ignore the question. But if I think about -- you talked about the IRP maybe strengthen and lengthen the CMS plan. And then when I fold over to earnings guidance of 6% to 8% towards the high end. If I look at '23 where it's kind of preliminary, it's right now at 7% more the midpoint. I guess, I'm trying to reconcile 6% to 8% towards the high end. Is that just take 6% out of the -- out of our planning assumptions or is 6% to 8% towards the high end?

祝賀偉大的季度。我很抱歉，這是真正的語義。我理解您是否只想忽略這個問題。但是，如果我想——您談到 IRP 可能會加強和延長 CMS 計劃。然後當我向高端折疊 6% 到 8% 的收益指導時。如果我看一下 23 年的初步數據，現在它比中點高出 7%。我想，我正試圖將 6% 到 8% 調到高端。這只是從我們的計劃假設中扣除 6% 還是 6% 到 8% 接近高端？

I love your question. And I'm not going to ignore it. So let's answer it. I just go back in history a little bit, even pre [Interbank], we guided at 6% to 8%, and we always said we had a bias toward the midpoint. That's how we approached it. And now our language is definitely different. It's 6% to 8%, and we expect to be toward the high end. And so that's the approach going forward.

我喜歡你的問題。我不會忽視它。所以我們來回答一下。我只是稍微回顧一下歷史，即使在 [Interbank] 之前，我們指導的利率是 6% 到 8%，我們總是說我們偏向中點。這就是我們接近它的方式。現在我們的語言絕對不同了。這是 6% 到 8%，我們預計會接近高端。這就是前進的方法。

And again, we look for repeatability into that. And so as you saw in our 2023 preliminary guidance, it's off that midpoint of 2022, but we're again, we're saying 6% to 8% expected to be towards the high end. We'll rebase off actuals, as we always do. But you can expect year after year that we're going to be consistency of industry-leading financial performance that we're going to continue to guide in that 6% to 8% range, again, from the high end. That's what it offers. Is that helpful?

再一次，我們尋找可重複性。正如您在我們的 2023 年初步指導中看到的那樣，它偏離了 2022 年的中點，但我們再次說，預計 6% 到 8% 將接近高端。我們將像往常一樣根據實際情況進行調整。但是你可以期待年復一年，我們將保持行業領先的財務業績的一致性，我們將繼續在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內繼續引導，從高端開始。這就是它提供的。這有幫助嗎？

Okay. Last shot at it and then I'm finished. If I look back in the last 18 years, you guys delivered very consistent 7%. Do you view the performance when I look back '18 that you hit the high end of that 6% to 8% range?

好的。最後一槍，然後我就完成了。如果我回顧過去的 18 年，你們提供了非常穩定的 7%。當我回顧 18 年時，您是否認為您達到了 6% 到 8% 範圍的高端？

I don't know what data you have in front of you, but I can only talk about what we have, we're in the context of the call here in our 2023 guidance. So we've said $3.05 to $3.11. And I would expect that we would be to the high end of that range. Does that clear it up? I wouldn't anticipate the (inaudible) I would expect the upper half of that range.

我不知道你面前有什麼數據，但我只能談談我們有什麼，我們在 2023 年指南中的電話會議背景下。所以我們說 3.05 美元到 3.11 美元。我希望我們會達到這個範圍的高端。這樣就清楚了嗎？我不會預料到（聽不清）我會預料到該範圍的上半部分。

Our final question today comes from Michael Sullivan from Wolfe Search.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Search 的 Michael Sullivan。

Just wanted to ask on -- just with your own renewables becoming more competitive post IRA. I think the current plan has 50% ownership in there. What is the CapEx associated with that? And if you were to be cost competitive across the board and go to 100%, what would that look like theoretically? .

只是想問一下——只是隨著你自己的可再生能源在愛爾蘭共和軍後變得更具競爭力。我認為目前的計劃有 50% 的所有權。與此相關的資本支出是多少？如果你要全面具有成本競爭力並達到 100%，理論上會是什麼樣子？ .

Yes, Michael, I assume you're asking about the full portfolio of 8 gigawatts. Is that fair? .

是的，邁克爾，我假設您問的是 8 吉瓦的完整產品組合。這公平嗎？ .

In the current yes, yes, either way, whatever is easiest for you. The current 5-year plan, the IRP that just got approved?

在當前，是的，是的，無論哪種方式，對你來說最容易的。當前的5年計劃，剛剛獲批的IRP？

Yes. So for the 8 gigawatts, we've roughly quantified in the past that 50% ownership of that could be around $4 billion. But again, with cost curves reducing the way they are. And that was a pre IRA assumption. So presumably, it could be a lower amount of CapEx. But we would expect to own, as Garrick highlighted, greater than 50% over time, if we continue to see the cost of owning continue to be more and more competitive with the cost of contracting. And so we'll revise those estimates over time.

是的。因此，對於 8 吉瓦，我們過去大致量化了 50% 的所有權可能約為 40 億美元。但同樣，成本曲線降低了它們的方式。這是愛爾蘭共和軍之前的假設。因此，據推測，這可能是較低的資本支出。但是，正如 Garrick 所強調的那樣，如果我們繼續看到擁有成本與合同成本相比，擁有越來越多的競爭力，我們預計隨著時間的推移擁有超過 50% 的股權。所以我們會隨著時間的推移修改這些估計。

In the 5-year plan, currently, we've got about $1 billion of solar in the plan. And obviously, we'll refresh the capital plan in the first quarter as we have our fourth quarter earnings call next year. So we'll give an update then. But the current plan had about roughly $1 billion in it.

目前，在 5 年計劃中，我們有大約 10 億美元的太陽能計劃。顯然，我們將在第一季度更新資本計劃，因為我們明年將召開第四季度財報電話會議。因此，我們將提供更新。但目前的計劃大約有 10 億美元。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then just kind of following along that, again, this is kind of theoretical. But if you start finding that you are more cost competitive more regularly here. Do you limit that at all if that introduces more equity needs into the plan? .

好的。這非常有幫助。然後只是遵循這一點，再一次，這是一種理論上的。但是，如果你開始發現你在這裡更經常地更具成本競爭力。如果這會在計劃中引入更多的公平需求，你會完全限制它嗎？ .

Yes. So the current construct per the settlement agreement has a natural cap of 60%. And so it's effectively a collar from 50% to 60% for ownership. And so we wouldn't be able contractually to go above that now. But in subsequent IRPs, we could potentially earn more than that. And so we'll revisit it and particularly if we're cost competitive with contracted solutions, we'd like to think that ceiling potentially come off.

是的。因此，根據和解協議，當前的建設自然上限為 60%。因此，它實際上是從 50% 到 60% 的所有權項圈。因此，我們現在無法通過合同超出此範圍。但在隨後的 IRP 中，我們可能會獲得更多收益。因此，我們將重新審視它，特別是如果我們與合同解決方案具有成本競爭力，我們會認為上限可能會下降。

But I would say Garrick highlighted this earlier, I emphasize it as well. When we think through the capital plan, the constraining factors are 3 things. It's affordability, so making sure that the rate increases are relatively modest as we execute on the capital plan. We also think about the feasibility of executing. We do not want to significantly grow our workforce to execute on the capital plan because that has structural cost implications. And so there's an operational feasibility aspect we take into it and then there's balance sheet. And we would rather not over-equitize or over-lever the balance sheet in order to fund the capital plan.

但我想說加里克早些時候強調了這一點，我也強調了這一點。當我們考慮資本計劃時，制約因素是三件事。這是負擔能力，因此在我們執行資本計劃時，請確保加息幅度相對溫和。我們也考慮執行的可行性。我們不希望顯著增加我們的勞動力來執行資本計劃，因為這會產生結構性成本影響。因此，我們考慮了運營可行性方面，然後是資產負債表。我們寧願不過度股權化或過度槓桿化資產負債表來為資本計劃提供資金。

And so that's generally how we think about building out the capital plan, and we'll take that into account as we construct this latest capital plan that we'll provide in the first quarter next year and obviously, subsequent capital plans after that.

因此，這通常是我們考慮制定資本計劃的方式，我們將在構建我們將在明年第一季度提供的最新資本計劃時考慮到這一點，顯然，之後的後續資本計劃。

That concludes our Q&A session for today. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Garrick Rochow for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉給 Garrick Rochow 先生作閉幕詞。

Thanks, Maxine, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Look forward to seeing you at EEI in a few weeks. Take care and stay safe. .

謝謝，Maxine，謝謝大家今天加入我們。期待幾週後在 EEI 見到您。小心並保持安全。 .

This concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。