(CHWY) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

線上寵物零售商 Chewy 召開電話會議,討論 2023 年第三季業績。他們公佈的淨銷售額為 27.4 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3%。

Chewy 的活躍客戶數量略有下降,但每位活躍客戶的淨銷售額卻有所成長。他們宣布推出 Chewy Canada 以及即將到來的投資者日,屆時他們將提供有關策略路線圖和長期財務目標的最新資訊。

Chewy 預計第四季淨銷售額將成長約 3%,全年淨銷售額將成長約 10%。他們討論了影響第四季度收入指引的因素,包括收入組成的變化和非自動發貨業務的疲軟。

Chewy對其在寵物行業實現成長和盈利的能力仍然充滿信心。他們還討論了他們的行銷策略、定價和未來成長計劃。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending today's Chewy Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Sierra, and I will be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions).

    大家好。感謝您參加今天的 Chewy 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Sierra,今天我將擔任你們的主持人。 (操作員說明)。

  • I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Jen Hsu with Chewy. Please proceed.

    現在我想將會議交給我們的主持人 Jen Hsu 和 Chewy。請繼續。

  • Jennifer Hsu

    Jennifer Hsu

  • Thank you for joining us on the call today to discuss our third quarter 2023 results.

    感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議,討論我們 2023 年第三季的業績。

  • Joining me are Chewy's CEO, Sumit Singh; and Interim CFO, Stacy Bowman. Our earnings release and letter to shareholders, which were filed with the SEC earlier today, have been posted to the Investor Relations section of our website, investor.chewy.com.

    和我一起的還有 Chewy 的執行長 Sumit Singh;和臨時財務長史黛西鮑曼。今天稍早向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和致股東的信函已發佈到我們網站 Investor.chewy.com 的投資者關係部分。

  • On our call today, we will be making forward-looking statements, including statements concerning Chewy's future prospects, financial results, strategies and investments, industry trends and our ability to successfully respond to business risks. Such statements are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors described in the section titled Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K and other subsequent quarterly reports, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements.

    在今天的電話會議上,我們將做出前瞻性聲明,包括有關 Chewy 的未來前景、財務業績、策略和投資、行業趨勢以及我們成功應對業務風險的能力的聲明。根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》,此類聲明被視為前瞻性聲明,並受到我們10-K 表格年度報告和其他後續季度報告中標題為“風險因素”部分所述的某些風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響,這可能導致實際結果與我們前瞻性陳述中預期的結果有重大差異。

  • Reported results should not be considered an indication of future performance. Also note that the forward-looking statements on this call are based on information available to us as of today's date. We disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law.

    報告的結果不應被視為未來績效的指標。另請注意,本次電話會議的前瞻性陳述是基於截至今天為止我們所掌握的資訊。除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • Also during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided on our Investor Relations website and in our earnings release and letter to shareholders which were filed with the SEC today. These non-GAAP measures are not intended as a substitute for GAAP results.

    此外,在本次電話會議中,我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的投資者關係網站以及今天向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和致股東的信函中提供了這些非公認會計準則項目與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的對帳。這些非公認會計準則衡量標準並非旨在取代公認會計準則結果。

  • Additionally, unless otherwise noted, results discussed today refer to the third quarter of 2023, and all comparisons are accordingly against the third quarter of 2022. Finally, this call in its entirety is being webcast on our Investor Relations website. A replay of this call will also be available on our Investor Relations website shortly.

    此外,除非另有說明,今天討論的結果指的是2023 年第三季度,所有比較均相應地與2022 年第三季度進行。最後,本次電話會議的全部內容正在我們的投資者關係網站上進行網路直播。本次電話會議的重播也將很快在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Sumit.

    我現在想把電話轉給蘇米特。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Jen, and thank you all for joining us on the call today.

    謝謝 Jen,也謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

  • Before we jump in, as we have previously announced, we will be hosting our inaugural Investor Day next week on Thursday, December 14. We look forward to seeing many of you in person and encourage everyone to tune in to the live webcast, which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

    在我們開始之前,正如我們之前宣布的那樣,我們將於下週 12 月 14 日星期四舉辦首屆投資者日活動。我們期待與你們中的許多人見面,並鼓勵大家收看現場網絡廣播,這可以可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

  • I'm excited to introduce you to our broader senior leadership team next week. We plan to provide a comprehensive update on our strategic road map, including the deep dive into our Chewy Health business and will share refreshed long-term financial targets. In light of our Investor Day next week, we will streamline today's call to focus on this quarter's results and a few notable recent updates. We will leave most strategy and innovation topics for next week.

    我很高興下周向您介紹我們更廣泛的高階領導團隊。我們計劃全面更新我們的策略路線圖,包括深入研究我們的 Chewy Health 業務,並將分享更新的長期財務目標。鑑於下週的投資者日,我們將簡化今天的電話會議,重點關注本季的業績和一些值得注意的近期更新。我們將把大部分策略和創新主題留到下週。

  • Now let's review Q3.

    現在讓我們回顧一下第三季。

  • Chewy continues to outperform and gain market share through the present environment. We reported $2.74 billion in net sales this quarter, up 8% against an industry that grew in the low single digits with pet inflation continuing to return to historical levels. Additionally, the team is executing admirably against controllable factors as reflected by another strong quarter of 3% adjusted EBITDA margin.

    在當前環境下,Chewy 繼續表現出色並贏得市場份額。我們報告本季淨銷售額為 27.4 億美元,與寵物通膨繼續恢復到歷史水平的低個位數增長的行業相比,增長了 8%。此外,該團隊在可控因素方面的表現令人欽佩,這一點從另一個強勁的季度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3% 可見一斑。

  • Consistent with the expectation we shared on our last earnings call, active customers declined marginally on a sequential basis. Looking beyond the near term, we believe we remain well positioned to drive improved active customer trends as the macro environment and pet household formation trends recover.

    與我們在上次財報電話會議上分享的預期一致,活躍客戶較上季略有下降。展望未來,我們相信,隨著宏觀環境和寵物家庭形成趨勢的復甦,我們仍處於有利地位,可以推動活躍客戶趨勢的改善。

  • Notably, we yet again demonstrated our ability to grow wallet share with our customers as net sales per active customer or NSPAC, exceeded $540, up nearly 14%. Throughout the third quarter, customer engagement remained strong. Our industry-leading mix of nondiscretionary consumables and health, bolstered by our Autoship subscription service continues to reinforce the structural soundness and defensible nature of our business model. The loyalty and spending resiliency of our Autoship customers remains unabated with no changes to their ordering behavior.

    值得注意的是,我們再次證明了我們增加客戶錢包份額的能力,每個活躍客戶或 NSPAC 的淨銷售額超過 540 美元,成長了近 14%。整個第三季度,客戶參與度依然強勁。在我們的 Autoship 訂閱服務的支持下,我們領先業界的非自由裁量消費品和健康產品組合繼續加強我們業務模式的結構健全性和防禦性。我們的 Autoship 客戶的忠誠度和消費彈性仍然沒有減弱,他們的訂購行為也沒有改變。

  • Additionally, our conversion of new customers into Autoship continues at a healthy rate. As a result, Autoship customer sales continue to outpace overall topline growth and were up nearly 13% in the quarter and represented over 76% of net sales. Nondiscretionary consumables and health categories anchor our business, collectively representing approximately 85% of third quarter net sales.

    此外,我們將新客戶轉化為 Autoship 的情況持續保持健康的速度。因此,Autoship 客戶銷售額持續超過整體營收成長,本季成長近 13%,佔淨銷售額的 76% 以上。非必需消費品和健康類別是我們業務的支柱,合計約佔第三季淨銷售額的 85%。

  • Pharmacy continued to grow at a premium to the overall company and now represents north of $1 billion business for us based on trailing 12 months net sales. At this scale, Chewy is the #1 pet pharmacy in America. We look forward to sharing more with you about the financial performance and strategic direction of our health business holistically at next week's Investor Day.

    製藥業務繼續以高於整個公司的溢價成長,根據過去 12 個月的淨銷售額,目前我們的業務已超過 10 億美元。按照這個規模,Chewy 是美國排名第一的寵物藥局。我們期待在下週的投資者日與您分享更多有關我們健康業務整體的財務表現和策略方向的資訊。

  • As anticipated, we launched Chewy Canada at the end of September, bringing Chewy's compelling value proposition to millions of pet parents in Canada. Initial customer demand has been strong. Autoship sign-up rates are healthy, our delivery experience is compelling and customer satisfaction is high. While it is early, we are pleased with our progress in market thus far with key indicators of success pointing towards a bullish future.

    正如預期的那樣,我們在 9 月底推出了 Chewy Canada,為加拿大數百萬寵物父母帶來了 Chewy 引人注目的價值主張。最初的客戶需求一直很強勁。自動送貨註冊率健康,我們的交付體驗令人信服,客戶滿意度很高。雖然現在還為時過早,但我們對迄今為止市場的進展感到滿意,關鍵成功指標表明未來看漲。

  • Turning to profitability. We reported gross margin of 28.5%, which is a new record in itself. Strength in gross margins reflects mix rate benefits, tightly managing promotional spend and strong performance in logistics by our team. Finally, adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 3% for the quarter, even during a period in which we had planned pronounced growth investment.

    轉向盈利能力。我們的毛利率為 28.5%,這本身就是一個新紀錄。毛利率的強勁反映了混合率優勢、嚴格管理促銷支出以及我們團隊在物流方面的強勁表現。最後,即使在我們計劃進行顯著成長投資的時期,本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 3%。

  • Shifting gears from in-quarter results, I'd now like to provide some commentary on how we performed on Black Friday and Cyber Monday of this year. We observed strong customer purchasing intent during this important holiday shopping week. Traffic and sales exceeded our expectation across all categories, including hard goods and conversion rates were up year-over-year. New customer acquisition was 40% higher than our Q3 weekly average.

    撇開季度業績,我現在想對我們今年黑色星期五和網路星期一的表現發表一些評論。在這個重要的假期購物週,我們觀察到顧客強烈的購買意願。所有類別(包括耐用品)的流量和銷售額都超出了我們的預期,並且轉換率比去年同期上升。新客戶獲取量比第三季周平均高出 40%。

  • While we have seen trends return to pre-holiday levels, our Black Friday and Cyber Monday performance is encouraging. Specifically, while consumer spending behavior remains opportunistic in the current environment, our results illustrate that Chewy's value proposition continues to resonate loudly and will prevail when consumer demand and industry inputs improve.

    雖然我們看到趨勢恢復到節前水平,但我們的黑色星期五和網路星期一表現令人鼓舞。具體來說,雖然在當前環境下消費者支出行為仍然是機會主義的,但我們的結果表明,Chewy 的價值主張繼續引起強烈共鳴,並且當消費者需求和行業投入改善時,該價值主張將盛行。

  • Before I turn the call over to Stacy, I would like to share some context regarding a couple of important company-wide developments.

    在將電話轉給史黛西之前,我想分享一些有關全公司範圍內的一些重要發展的背景資訊。

  • In November, as part of our 2024 strategic planning process, we implemented actions to reduce our head count in certain areas of the organization. This decision was carefully considered as part of our ongoing focus on becoming an ever more agile and disciplined company and aligns our efforts into priorities, which we believe will gain us the most significant customer wins and generate the highest business return.

    11 月,作為 2024 年策略規劃流程的一部分,我們採取了減少組織某些領域員工人數的行動。這項決定經過深思熟慮,是我們持續致力於成為一家更加敏捷和紀律嚴明的公司的一部分,並將我們的努力與優先事項結合起來,我們相信這將為我們贏得最重要的客戶勝利並產生最高的業務回報。

  • While we consolidated some roles within the organization, we continue to invest in other high-priority areas. As we head into 2024, we expect these actions to create room for us to continue investing behind our growth initiatives. We are incredibly grateful to our team members for their contributions and remain committed to supporting them during this transition.

    雖然我們鞏固了組織內的一些角色,但我們繼續投資於其他高優先領域。進入 2024 年,我們預計這些行動將為我們繼續投資支持我們的成長計畫創造空間。我們非常感謝我們的團隊成員所做的貢獻,並將繼續致力於在這段過渡期間為他們提供支援。

  • Lastly, I'm excited to announce that David Reeder will be joining us as Chewy's new Chief Financial Officer, starting early in 2024. Dave joins us from GlobalFoundries, where he is currently CFO. He brings with him extensive experience across a multitude of operational and financial roles at GlobalFoundries, Lexmark, Cisco and Broadcom, amongst others. I look forward to working with Dave as we continue to execute against the many compelling growth and margin opportunities across our ecosystem.

    最後,我很高興地宣布,David Reeder 將從 2024 年初開始加入我們,擔任 Chewy 的新任財務長。Dave 在加入我們之前就職於 GlobalFoundries,目前擔任該公司的財務長。他在 GlobalFoundries、Lexmark、Cisco 和 Broadcom 等公司擔任過多個營運和財務職務,擁有豐富的經驗。我期待與戴夫合作,繼續在我們的生態系統中執行許多引人注目的成長和利潤機會。

  • I would also like to thank Stacy for all that she has done to support me and the Chewy team in her role as interim CFO. Following Dave's start date, Stacy will continue to serve as our Chief Accounting Officer.

    我還要感謝 Stacy 在擔任臨時財務長期間為支持我和 Chewy 團隊所做的一切。在戴夫上任後,史黛西將繼續擔任我們的首席會計官。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Stacy.

    這樣,我會將電話轉給史黛西。

  • Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

    Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

  • Thank you, Sumit, and thank you all for joining us today.

    謝謝你,蘇米特,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

  • In the third quarter, net sales grew 8.2% to $2.74 billion. Autoship customer sales growth outpaced total net sales growth by almost 460 basis points and came in at $2.09 billion in Q3, up 12.8%. Autoship customer sales now represent 76.4% of total net sales.

    第三季淨銷售額成長 8.2%,達到 27.4 億美元。第三季 Autoship 客戶銷售額成長超過總淨銷售額成長近 460 個基點,達到 20.9 億美元,成長 12.8%。 Autoship 客戶銷售目前佔總淨銷售額的 76.4%。

  • We ended the third quarter with 20.3 million active customers. Our primary measure of customer engagement, NSPAC, grew 13.8% year-over-year to $543, yet again, reaching a new record high.

    截至第三季末,我們的活躍客戶數量為 2,030 萬人。我們衡量客戶參與度的主要指標 NSPAC 年比成長 13.8%,達到 543 美元,再次創下新高。

  • As we move down the P&L, please note that my discussion of financials, where applicable, refers to metrics excluding share-based compensation expense and related taxes as well as certain other adjustments disclosed in our SEC filings where relevant. The same applies to my discussion of guidance and financial outlook.

    當我們向下移動損益表時,請注意,我對財務狀況的討論(如果適用)指的是不包括基於股票的補償費用和相關稅收以及我們的SEC 文件中披露的相關某些其他調整的指標。這同樣適用於我對指導和財務前景的討論。

  • Gross margin reached 28.5% in Q3. Our Q3 gross margin highlights our ability to deliver steady margin accretion in this part of the P&L, and we continue to believe there is meaningful room for continued gross margin expansion over time.

    第三季毛利率達28.5%。我們第三季的毛利率凸顯了我們在損益表的這一部分中實現穩定的利潤成長的能力,我們仍然相信,隨著時間的推移,毛利率還有持續擴張的有意義的空間。

  • Continuing on to OpEx. SG&A totaled $545.9 million or 19.9% of net sales, deleveraging 30 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2022. This increase was largely driven by investments related to our growth initiatives. Q3 advertising and marketing expense was $179.2 million or 6.5% of net sales, consistent with our expectation of 6% to 7% of net sales.

    繼續討論營運支出。 SG&A 總額為 5.459 億美元,佔淨銷售額的 19.9%,與 2022 年第三季度相比去槓桿化了 30 個基點。這一增長主要是由與我們的增長計劃相關的投資推動的。第三季廣告和行銷費用為 1.792 億美元,佔淨銷售額的 6.5%,與我們佔淨銷售額 6% 至 7% 的預期一致。

  • Third quarter adjusted net income was $63 million, an increase of $14.6 million. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $82.1 million, up $11.7 million, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3%.

    第三季調整後淨利為 6,300 萬美元,增加 1,460 萬美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 達到 8,210 萬美元,增加 1,170 萬美元,意味著調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3%。

  • Third quarter free cash flow of $48.5 million continues to be strong, reflecting $80.2 million in net cash provided by operating activities and $31.7 million in capital expenditures. Our third quarter trailing 12-month free cash flow was over $300 million and demonstrates our ability to execute sharply and generate meaningful cash flow through all economic environments.

    第三季自由現金流持續強勁,為 4,850 萬美元,反映出經營活動提供的淨現金為 8,020 萬美元,資本支出為 3,170 萬美元。我們第三季的過去 12 個月自由現金流超過 3 億美元,這表明我們有能力在所有經濟環境下快速執行並產生有意義的現金流。

  • Capital expenditures continue to be comprised primarily of automated fulfillment center investments and ongoing technology projects. As planned, our CapEx spend tapered this quarter following above-average CapEx intensity in the second quarter, and we expect 2023 CapEx to remain in the range of 1.5% to 2% of net sales, consistent with past investment levels.

    資本支出仍然主要包括自動化履行中心投資和正在進行的技術項目。按照計劃,繼第二季資本支出強度高於平均水平之後,我們本季的資本支出逐漸減少,我們預計2023 年資本支出將保持在淨銷售額的1.5% 至2% 範圍內,與過去的投資水平一致。

  • We finished Q3 with $957.2 million in cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities, nearly $351 million higher than the balance at this time last year, and we remain debt-free. At the end of Q3, between cash on hand, marketable securities and availability on our ABL, our liquidity stood at $1.7 billion.

    第三季結束時,我們擁有 9.572 億美元的現金、現金等價物和有價證券,比去年同期的餘額高出近 3.51 億美元,而且我們仍然沒有債務。第三季末,根據手頭現金、有價證券和 ABL 的可用情況,我們的流動性為 17 億美元。

  • That concludes my recap of our third quarter results.

    我對第三季業績的回顧到此結束。

  • So now let me cover our fourth quarter and full year 2023 guidance. While we remain confident in the overall resilience of the pet category as well as Chewy's ability to deliver growth above industry average, in light of the near-term macro environment, we are updating our topline guidance as we head into year-end.

    現在讓我介紹一下我們的第四季和 2023 年全年指引。雖然我們對寵物類別的整體彈性以及 Chewy 實現高於行業平均水平的增長的能力仍然充滿信心,但鑑於近期宏觀環境,我們將在年底之際更新我們的營收指引。

  • We expect fourth quarter net sales to be between $2.78 billion and $2.8 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 3%. We are narrowing and revising our full year 2023 net sales outlook to be between $11.08 billion and $11.1 billion, representing growth of approximately 10% compared to full year 2022. We are reiterating our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin outlook of 3%.

    我們預計第四季淨銷售額將在 27.8 億美元至 28 億美元之間,年增約 3%。我們將 2023 年全年淨銷售額預期縮小並修改為 110.8 億美元至 111 億美元,與 2022 年全年相比增長約 10%。我們重申 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預期為 3%。

  • As you update your models, also note that we expect our free cash flow for full year 2023 to be in excess of 2.5x the free cash flow we generated in full year 2022, implying an adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate north of 80%.

    當您更新模型時,也請注意,我們預計2023 年全年的自由現金流將超過2022 年全年產生的自由現金流的2.5 倍,這意味著調整後的EBITDA 與自由現金流的轉換率將超過80 %。

  • Our third quarter results once again demonstrate Chewy's unique ability to deliver strong results in the current environment. We expect to continue taking share and expanding profitability while the pet industry works its way back towards steady-state trends. And we remain highly encouraged by the various strategic opportunities that lie ahead. We look forward to seeing many of you next week.

    我們第三季的業績再次證明了 Chewy 在當前環境下取得強勁業績的獨特能力。我們預計,在寵物產業回歸穩定趨勢的同時,我們將繼續佔據市場份額並擴大獲利能力。我們仍然對未來的各種戰略機會感到高度鼓舞。我們期待下週見到你們中的許多人。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for questions.

    這樣,我會將電話轉給接線生詢問問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)今天我們的第一個問題來自高盛的埃里克·謝裡丹(Eric Sheridan)。

  • Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

  • I just want to come back to the Q4 guidance on the revenue side. Can you walk through some of the headwinds and tailwinds we should be thinking about in terms of the revenue build for Q4? And how much of this is down to broader promotional or competitive intensity versus elements of the macro environment and basket size or just the lapping effect of inflation from a year ago?

    我只想回到第四季營收的指引。您能談談我們在第四季的營收成長方面應該考慮的一些不利因素和有利因素嗎?其中有多少是由於更廣泛的促銷或競爭強度與宏觀環境和籃子規模等因素的比較,或者只是一年前通貨膨脹的重疊效應?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Eric, this is Sumit. So I'll speak to it.

    艾瑞克,這是蘇米特。那我就談談它。

  • Our guidance reflects sales growth that is expected to outpace the industry, first of all. So we're continuing to see changes happen post our commentary from the July-August time frame when we last spoke.

    首先,我們的指導反映了預計將超過該行業的銷售成長。因此,在我們上次發言時的 7 月至 8 月時間範圍內發表評論後,我們繼續看到發生的變化。

  • So here are a couple of main points. When you look year-over-year, the revenue composition is shifting out of pricing and more into structural unit and attach. So there's little or no benefit from pricing from a comp point of view. That, combined with continuing lower mix of hard goods and discretionary this year relative to last year explains sort of the year-over-year comps that you're seeing.

    所以這裡有幾個要點。當你逐年觀察時,收入組成正在從定價轉向結構單元和附加。因此,從競爭的角度來看,定價幾乎沒有任何好處。再加上今年耐用品和非必需品的組合相對於去年持續下降,解釋了您所看到的同比比較。

  • As it relates to guidance, the softness that we called out last quarter, that we started seeing in the July-August time frame, has persisted. We're seeing the impact of this softness most materially in the non-Autoship portion of our business, right? So the 25% of the business that doesn't go through Autoship, and primarily across highly discretionary components, some consumable components. This is related and coupled with the impact of the newer customer cohorts that we talked about last time where loyalty is still continuing to be earned, right? These customers are early tenure, and we're taking steps to engage with them and making forecasting a little bit difficult across the macro that is keeping discretionary soft and overall spending patterns a little bit opportunistic.

    就指導而言,我們在上個季度指出的、在 7 月至 8 月期間開始看到的疲軟現象仍然存在。我們看到這種疲軟的影響在我們業務的非自動發貨部分最為顯著,對吧?因此,25% 的業務不透過自動發貨,主要涉及高度自由裁量的組件,以及一些消耗性組件。這與我們上次談到的新客戶群的影響有關,並且仍然可以繼續贏得忠誠度,對嗎?這些客戶都是早期客戶,我們正在採取措施與他們接觸,並使整個宏觀的預測變得有點困難,這使得可自由支配的軟性和整體支出模式有點機會主義。

  • So that is all reflected in the new guidance that we're providing. We came out of last quarter, starting to see these trends, the trends have sort of persisted. So this time was the right time to make the call to update the guidance as we're seeing it at this time.

    因此,這一切都反映在我們提供的新指南中。我們從上個季度出來,開始看到這些趨勢,這些趨勢在某種程度上持續存在。因此,正如我們目前所看到的那樣,這次是呼籲更新指南的正確時機。

  • Having said all this, we have a moat in Autoship portion of the business that remains strong and has proven to be resilient through the current macro per se. Happy to take a follow-up.

    話雖如此,我們在自動送貨業務方面擁有一條護城河,該河仍然強勁,並且在當前的宏觀環境下已被證明具有彈性。很高興採取後續行動。

  • And I just want to reiterate that at the midpoint of our '23 net sales guidance, we will deliver approximately 10% growth year-over-year, which is share gaining. And then next week's Investor Day, we intend to share additional perspective on our long-term growth algorithm and expectations.

    我只想重申,在我們 23 年淨銷售指導的中點,我們將實現約 10% 的同比增長,即份額增長。然後在下週的投資者日,我們打算分享更多有關我們長期成長演算法和預期的觀點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

    您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • Sumit, got the color there on 4Q revenue. Can you just help us square a little bit the strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday performance you called out with the rest of the outlook for 4Q? Is that just purely promotional driven? And I guess why does that give you some degree of longer-term confidence?

    Sumit,對第四季的營收有所了解。您能否幫助我們將您所說的黑色星期五和網路星期一的強勁表現與第四季度的其他前景相結合?這只是純粹的促銷驅動嗎?我想為什麼這會給你一定程度的長期信心?

  • And then second, perhaps you can just provide a little bit of color on how you're thinking about gross margins in 4Q. Obviously, the EBITDA -- implied EBITDA guidance is down. You mentioned a few things there on revenue, but is that related to promotions, normalizing inflation, some seasonality? Any other factors we should think about?

    其次,也許您可以提供一些關於您如何看待第四季度毛利率的資訊。顯然,EBITDA(隱含的 EBITDA 指引)有所下降。您提到了一些關於收入的事情,但這與促銷、通膨正常化、某些季節性有關嗎?我們還應該考慮其他因素嗎?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure. There's a lot there. Nice to hear from you, Doug. There's a lot there. So let me decouple it one by one and Stacy can jump in at any point if I miss anything.

    當然。那裡有很多東西。很高興收到你的來信,道格。那裡有很多東西。因此,讓我將其一一解耦,如果我錯過任何內容,Stacy 可以隨時加入。

  • So first of all, promotional activity during Black Friday was slightly steeper than prior year, although it remained broadly rational. So what we are essentially calling out is the way that we went to market, the specific offers that we took to market, the way customers engage with the overall proposition, our existing customer is engaging along with the healthy mix of new customers that we picked up, essentially signals to the fact that structurally, right, the business is sound and when stimulated the right way and customers being in the right mind frame, they do respond. So it sort of speaks to the tenability of the industry rebouncing once customer pressure sort of abate. That's the reason we provided those commentary, we thought it would be helpful.

    首先,黑色星期五期間的促銷活動比去年略有增加,但整體上仍保持理性。因此,我們本質上要強調的是我們進入市場的方式,我們向市場提供的具體優惠,客戶參與總體主張的方式,我們現有的客戶與我們選擇的新客戶的健康組合一起參與向上,本質上表明這樣一個事實:從結構上來說,業務是健全的,當以正確的方式刺激並且客戶處於正確的思維框架時,他們確實會做出反應。因此,這在某種程度上說明了一旦客戶壓力減弱,該行業就會反彈。這就是我們提供這些評論的原因,我們認為這會有所幫助。

  • Overall, the way that we're thinking about gross margin, we expect to hold within the 28% range is that we've been communicating so far. So we don't expect an impact to gross margin because we expect the promotional environment moving forward to remain rational with typical seasonal guardrails similar to what we've observed over other Black Fridays, Cyber Mondays. Happy to provide more promotional color in the way that we've played through Q4.

    總體而言,我們對毛利率的看法是,我們迄今為止一直在溝通,預計毛利率將保持在 28% 的範圍內。因此,我們預計毛利率不會受到影響,因為我們預計促銷環境將保持理性,典型的季節性護欄類似於我們在其他黑色星期五和網路星期一觀察到的情況。很高興以我們在第四季的方式提供更多的促銷色彩。

  • So all of the Q3 implied EBITDA that you're seeing is essentially as a result of incremental dollars spent during this Black Friday, which was roughly approximately 30 basis points higher than last year. So that component is building in. And then two, our growth investments started flowing through in Q3 and are continuing to flow through to Q4. So if you normalize for that, it essentially gets you back to the to the healthy levels of EBITDA that we've delivered in the front half of the year.

    因此,您看到的第三季隱含 EBITDA 本質上是黑色星期五期間支出增量的結果,比去年高出約 30 個基點。所以這個組件正在建立。然後第二,我們的成長投資在第三季開始流動,並將繼續流動到第四季。因此,如果你對此進行正常化,它基本上會讓你回到我們今年上半年交付的 EBITDA 的健康水平。

  • Anything to add, Stacy?

    有什麼要補充的嗎,史黛西?

  • Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

    Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

  • Yes, I would just reiterate that our Q4 profitability reflects the usual seasonal impact of holiday promotional activity. But as Sumit just mentioned, it is largely rational and within our expectations. And we will see some investment behind our growth investments. So that flows through to the adjusted EBITDA. But I do want to reiterate that we are really proud that we're able to self-fund our growth. And so we continue to do so throughout the year.

    是的,我只想重申,我們第四季的獲利能力反映了假日促銷活動通常的季節性影響。但正如蘇米特剛才提到的,這很大程度上是理性的,也在我們的預期之內。我們將看到成長投資背後的一些投資。這樣就可以反映調整後的 EBITDA。但我確實想重申,我們為能夠自籌資金實現成長而感到非常自豪。因此,我們全年都會繼續這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的勞倫·申克。

  • Nathaniel Jay Feather - Research Associate

    Nathaniel Jay Feather - Research Associate

  • This is Nathan Feather on for Lauren. Can you dig a bit more into the direct impact of macro across each of gross adds, churn and NSPAC? And then is the embedded macro environment in the 4Q guide worsening for 3Q? Or is it just largely stable?

    我是勞倫 (Lauren) 的內森費瑟 (Nathan Feather)。您能否更深入了解宏觀對總增加、流失和 NSPAC 的直接影響?那麼,第四季指引中嵌入的宏觀環境是否會在第三季惡化?或只是基本穩定?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Nathan, this is Sumit. So on the macro it is -- the trends that we started seeing coming out of Q3 have largely persisted, right? For the most part, you're seeing discretionary -- spending in discretionary being low persisting, you're seeing a shift out of that in to drive persisting. So nothing has broadly changed. We're not seeing broad trade downs happen on our side. So customers that are engaging with premiumized assortment aren't the ones essentially trading down.

    內森,這是蘇米特。因此,從宏觀角度來看,我們從第三季開始看到的趨勢基本上持續存在,對嗎?在大多數情況下,你會看到可自由支配的支出持續較低,但你會看到這種轉變正在推動持續成長。所以沒有什麼大的改變。我們沒有看到我們這邊發生廣泛的貿易下跌。因此,那些購買優質產品的顧客並不是那些本質上會進行降價購買的顧客。

  • So loyalty within core consumables categories and customers' general reluctance to switch from a proven food that works well for their pet, that is pretty intact. The power of the Autoship model, which facilitates the stickiness and behavior is intact. And all of the softness that we're seeing is primarily in our non-Autoship-driven businesses. which are more egregiously weighted towards discretionary, including categories such as treats per se.

    因此,核心消費品類別的忠誠度以及客戶普遍不願放棄對寵物有效的經過驗證的食品,這是相當完整的。 Autoship 模型的強大功能,促進了黏性和行為,完好無損。我們看到的所有疲軟主要集中在非自動出貨驅動的業務。這些類別更偏重於自由裁量權,包括零食本身等類別。

  • You had a second part to your question, I think, additional commentary on NSPAC, gross ads.

    我想,你的問題還有第二部分,就是 NSPAC、毛廣告的附加評論。

  • Our commentary on customers hasn't necessarily changed. We guided in Q3 that we expect a wider outcome. If you can -- I mean, of course, we've been about roughly 100,000, 150,000 customers down on a year-over-year basis, on an average, 100,000 customers. We don't expect to make that up and our customer sentiment doesn't change up until kind of the macro starts resolving.

    我們對客戶的評論不一定會改變。我們在第三季表示,我們預計會取得更廣泛的結果。如果可以的話——我的意思是,當然,我們比去年同期減少了大約 100,000 至 150,000 名客戶,平均為 100,000 名客戶。我們不希望彌補這一點,並且在某種宏觀問題開始解決之前,我們的客戶情緒不會改變。

  • We're happy with the way that we played through Black Friday, Cyber Monday. We're happy with the way customers are responding to us across our consumables, Autoship, health-type categories. Our reactivation rate remains pretty strong. So all of those are positive trends. Q4 typically comes with a very high mix of seasonal discretionary categories. And if you look at it from a year-over-year perspective, it's down relative to last year. But compared to 2021, discretionary is down roughly -- on a mix basis, roughly 15%, and that definitely has an impact.

    我們對黑色星期五和網路星期一的表現感到滿意。我們對客戶在消耗品、自動出貨、健康類別中對我們的回應感到滿意。我們的重新激活率仍然相當高。所以所有這些都是正面的趨勢。第四季通常會出現非常多的季節性非必需類別。如果你從同比的角度來看,它相對於去年是下降的。但與 2021 年相比,可自由支配的支出大致下降了——在混合基礎上,下降了約 15%,這肯定會產生影響。

  • Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

    Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

  • Yes. I would just go back to the NSPAC point as well. We continue to meaningfully expand our wallet share. So it continues to show our loyal customer base and they continue to penetrate into other categories such as our high-margin health category and whatnot. So we are seeing some growth there as demonstrated over -- by our record highs this quarter.

    是的。我也想回到 NSPAC 的觀點。我們繼續有意義地擴大我們的錢包份額。因此,它繼續展示了我們忠實的客戶群,並且他們繼續滲透到其他類別,例如我們的高利潤健康類別等。因此,我們看到了一些成長,正如本季創下的歷史新高所證明的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Anna Andreeva with Needham.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Anna Andreeva 和 Needham。

  • Anna A. Andreeva - Senior Analyst

    Anna A. Andreeva - Senior Analyst

  • Great. A couple from us. I guess if we continue to see inflation exit the space into next year and the consumer remains pretty price sensitive, how do you think about the trade down for Chewy in margins versus topline? I guess in other words, would you pull back on promotions to this non-Autoship customer to preserve margins or not necessarily?

    偉大的。我們的一對。我想,如果我們繼續看到明年通貨膨脹退出該領域,並且消費者對價格仍然相當敏感,您如何看待耐嚼的利潤率與營收的下降?我想換句話說,您是否會減少對非自動發貨客戶的促銷活動以保留利潤,或者不一定?

  • And secondly, just a follow-up on Canada. Did you break out Canada in terms of net adds and sales during the quarter? And are you seeing a similar consumer behavior but trade down to value in the region as well?

    其次,只是加拿大的後續行動。您在本季的淨增量和銷售額方面是否突破了加拿大的限制?您是否看到該地區有類似的消費者行為,但價格也有所下降?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure. Anna. So first of all, our discounting/promo spend isn't materially elevated. From the beginning of this year, we had said that there's an opportunity that we might spend up to 30 basis points higher in promotions on a year-over-year basis. And so far, we had not seen the environment where that spend had come through. And we have seen it only during the holiday period where our discounting/promotional spend was roughly 30 basis points higher than last year. And beyond that, we've gone back to our normal levels of discounting, which may be very slightly elevated now just responding to seasonal patterns. But broadly speaking, promotionality remains relatively rational from our vantage point.

    當然。安娜.首先,我們的折扣/促銷支出並沒有大幅增加。從今年年初開始,我們就曾表示,我們有可能在促銷上花費比去年同期高出 30 個基點的機會。到目前為止,我們還沒有看到這筆支出的環境。我們只在假期期間看到了這一點,我們的折扣/促銷支出比去年高出約 30 個基點。除此之外,我們已經恢復到正常的折扣水平,現在可能會略微提高,只是為了應對季節性模式。但總的來說,從我們的角度來看,促銷仍然相對理性。

  • Also, I want to make sure that it is clear that our ability to navigate through kind of the promotional variability, however small it might be, is reflected through the continuous kind of strong gross margin performances.

    此外,我想確保清楚的是,我們應對促銷變化的能力,無論它有多小,都透過持續強勁的毛利率表現反映出來。

  • And last, I would say, we continue to work closely with our supplier partners to ensure a high degree of MAP compliance, which essentially protects prices and large variability in the pet space, and we expect MAP discipline to be enforced by the overall market as we continue to move through Q4 and beyond. So that was the first part of your answer.

    最後,我想說的是,我們將繼續與供應商合作夥伴密切合作,以確保高度的MAP 合規性,這從本質上保護了寵物領域的價格和巨大的可變性,並且我們預計MAP 紀律將由整個市場強制執行,因為我們將繼續第四季及以後的發展。這就是你答案的第一部分。

  • Number two, in Canada, yes, we like the business the way it's performing. We're continuing to add assortment and open up a geography, which we will come talk to you here in the next 1 to 2 quarters. Alongside -- overall in FY '23, the business has not a material impact. So we'll stay away from providing numbers or guidances accordingly. And we're seeing consumers respond well to promotions around the Boxing Day time frame. And even there, we've actually pulled back and gone back to leading our businesses or building it via a recurring theme in mind. So we are heavier on Autoship and not so much on non-Autoship type transactional offers.

    第二,在加拿大,是的,我們喜歡這個產業的表現。我們將繼續增加品種並開拓地域,我們將在接下來的 1 到 2 個季度內與您討論。此外,23 財年整體而言,該業務並未產生重大影響。因此,我們將不再提供相應的數字或指導。我們看到消費者對節禮日期間的促銷活動反應良好。即使在那裡,我們實際上已經撤回並重新領導我們的業務或透過腦海中反覆出現的主題來建立它。因此,我們更注重自動發貨,而不是非自動發貨類型的交易優惠。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Rick Patel with Raymond James.

    下一個問題來自里克·帕特爾和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Rakesh Babarbhai Patel - MD & Research Analyst

    Rakesh Babarbhai Patel - MD & Research Analyst

  • I just had a question on active customers. So to what extent are you still being impacted by churn of COVID cohorts in terms of the headwind? And as we think beyond macro and pet household formation, can you talk about the levers you have to accelerate new customers that are under your control. I'm curious if you would consider leaning more into discounting or marketing to get more consumers into your ecosystem?

    我剛剛有一個關於活躍客戶的問題。那麼,就逆風而言,您在多大程度上仍受到新冠肺炎群體流失的影響?當我們超越宏觀和寵物家庭的形成時,您能否談談您必須採取哪些手段來加速您控制下的新客戶的發展。我很好奇您是否會考慮更多地依靠折扣或行銷來吸引更多消費者進入您的生態系統?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure. So our COVID cohorts, I'm just looking at the data here, they continue to settle out well. And the highest amount of churn that we're seeing is actually in the near-term cohorts. So I have provided a little bit of color on this in my -- in the last quarter's earnings script, around customers that were picked up in the '22 or the near-term cohort that were demonstrating more discretionary-type behavior.

    當然。所以我們的新冠肺炎群體,我只是看這裡的數據,他們繼續安定下來。我們看到的流失率最高的其實是短期群體。因此,我在上個季度的收益腳本中對此提供了一些色彩,圍繞著 22 世紀或近期表現出更多自由裁量行為的客戶群。

  • Beyond that, our COVID cohorts continue to settle out well and churn rate there has continued to stabilize. Now that we're past the 2-year mark for the 2020 cohort and the '21, for the most part, '21 cohort as well. And so just to be sure, we've been consistent in saying that their retention was just low single-digit percent point lower than our classic kind of best high-quality legacy cohorts. And that theme has essentially stayed consistent as well.

    除此之外,我們的新冠肺炎群體持續安定下來,流失率也持續穩定。現在,我們已經過了 2020 年群體和「21」群體的 2 年大關,在很大程度上,「21」群體也已經過去了。因此,可以肯定的是,我們一直堅持說,他們的保留率僅比我們經典的最佳高品質遺留群體低個位數個百分點。這個主題基本上也保持一致。

  • The second part of your question is what levers do you have to accelerate in customer growth? Will you lean to discounts on marketing?

    您問題的第二部分是您有哪些槓桿可以加速客戶成長?您會傾向於行銷折扣嗎?

  • So marketing our philosophy, as you know, is not to govern ourselves with a specific dollar amount rather to essentially spend up to the point where we see profitable returns. So it's a more fluid budget, and our marketing teams are fully empowered. A large portion of our spend is lower funnel with healthy mixes into mid and upper funnel. So while upper funnel budget is less flexible and a lower funnel basis is where we act based on how we see market demand and consumer kind of predictive lifetime value.

    因此,如您所知,行銷我們的理念不是用特定的美元金額來管理我們自己,而是本質上把錢花到我們看到獲利回報的程度。因此,這是一個更靈活的預算,我們的行銷團隊也得到了充分的授權。我們的支出很大一部分是下漏斗,而健康的混合則進入中漏斗和上漏斗。因此,雖然上漏斗預算較不靈活,但下漏斗基礎是我們根據我們如何看待市場需求和消費者預測終身價值採取行動的地方。

  • So we're optimizing there appropriately in our opinion. The discretionary that actually drives a very healthy level of customer acquisition into the platform, of course, is muted. And the gaps that we're seeing primarily from a historical point of view are all deltas that are coming from those categories primarily. Our premium businesses continue to outpace historical acquisition rates, which we're happy about because they build high-quality cohorts.

    因此,我們認為我們正在適當地優化。當然,實際上推動該平台獲得非常健康的客戶成長水平的自由裁量權是靜音的。我們主要從歷史角度看到的差距都是主要來自這些類別的增量。我們的優質業務繼續超過歷史收購率,我們對此感到高興,因為它們建立了高品質的團隊。

  • In terms of discounting, we've always believed in building a high-quality, recurring business, less so a transactional business. We leaned into discounting tactics early in '23 and late in '22. And that is part of the reason why we believe these cohorts are not as sticky as our legacy cohort. So that's a good lesson learned, even though intuition was true, we went out, tested it, found it to be true again, and we've pulled back on that pretty dramatically. We don't expect to bring that back.

    在折扣方面,我們始終相信建立高品質、經常性的業務,而不是交易性業務。我們在 23 年初和 22 年底傾向於採用折扣策略。這就是為什麼我們認為這些群體不像我們的傳統群體那麼黏性的部分原因。所以這是一個很好的教訓,儘管直覺是正確的,但我們出去測試它,發現它再次正確,並且我們已經非常戲劇性地撤回了這一點。我們不希望將其帶回來。

  • Yes, happy to take a follow-up.

    是的,很高興採取後續行動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Steven Zaccone with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Steven Zaccone。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on the pricing discussion. So it sounds like the fourth quarter outlook embeds that pricing will basically be flat year-over-year. Is that the right way to think about your initial outlook for '24? We've heard more about pet food supply coming to the market. So I'm just curious how you think pricing trends into next year?

    我想跟進定價討論。因此,第四季度的前景似乎表明定價將基本上與去年同期持平。這是您對 24 世紀的初步展望的正確方式嗎?我們聽說了更多有關寵物食品進入市場的消息。所以我很好奇您如何看待明年的定價趨勢?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's a good question. So a couple of points there. First, from our vantage point, we do not expect deflationary pressure in the consumables or the health categories. We've heard certain questions or acknowledge that there has been commentary out in the market around potential food deflation in the near term. We do not believe that deflationary pressure, which may exist or impact traditional grocery and food players will translate into the pet category, right? There's -- consumables and pet category are branded. Our vendors have significantly invested. And jointly, we are motivated in protecting MAP pricing framework, which broadly speaking, does not exist in conventional grocery per se, which is non-branded. So anyway, so that's the comment there.

    是的,這是一個好問題。所以有幾點。首先,從我們的角度來看,我們預期消費品或健康品類不會出現通貨緊縮壓力。我們聽到了某些問題或承認市場上有關於近期潛在食品通貨緊縮的評論。我們不認為可能存在或影響傳統雜貨和食品企業的通貨緊縮壓力會轉化為寵物類別,對吧?消耗品和寵物類別都是有品牌的。我們的供應商進行了大量投資。我們共同致力於保護 MAP 定價框架,從廣義上講,傳統雜貨本身並不存在該框架,因為傳統雜貨是非品牌的。無論如何,這就是那裡的評論。

  • Second, pet inflation continues to come down, and this quarter running at mid-single digits. Ultimately, we believe this will very quickly come down to low single-digit levels, and there will be no impact of pricing or no benefit from pricing as we get into next year. You might see a little bit of pricing benefit getting into Q1 based on kind of how the cost price increases came in through '22, '23, but you will not see any impact or any benefit of pricing as we move out of our Q1 quarter.

    其次,寵物通膨持續下降,本季處於中個位數水準。最終,我們相信這將很快降至較低的個位數水平,並且進入明年時,定價不會產生影響,也不會從定價中獲益。根據 22 年、23 年成本價格上漲的情況,您可能會看到進入第一季會出現一些定價優勢,但當我們走出第一季時,您不會看到定價的任何影響或任何優勢。

  • So what does that mean? It means that as the pricing environment continues to normalize, structural unit growth will essentially drive the majority of the overall topline growth. And we expect Chewy to remain in share gain position in 2024 as well.

    那麼這意味著什麼呢?這意味著,隨著定價環境繼續正常化,結構性單位成長將基本上推動整體營收成長的大部分。我們預計 Chewy 到 2024 年也將保持份額成長的地位。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. I do have a brief follow-up. So the announcement around some of the cost savings, just to be clear, do you expect those savings to flow to the bottom line? Or will you need to reinvest those savings in other initiatives?

    好的。明白了。我確實有一個簡短的後續行動。因此,關於一些成本節省的公告,需要澄清的是,您預計這些節省會流入利潤嗎?或者您需要將這些節省的資金再投資於其他計劃?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Not need to, we will choose to reinvest. The answer is yes to both. Yes, some of that will flow to the bottom line. So we will drive leverage as a result of these actions, which we will quantify more when we talk to you about 2024 guidance. And we will also prudently invest back in what we consider A-list priorities for the company that are poised for new customer acquisition and growth in the future.

    不需要,我們會選擇再投資。兩者的答案都是肯定的。是的,其中一些將流入底線。因此,我們將透過這些行動來提高槓桿率,當我們與您討論 2024 年指導時,我們將對其進行更多量化。我們也將謹慎地投資於我們認為公司的首要優先事項,這些優先事項將為未來的新客戶獲取和成長做好準備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Brian Fitzgerald with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的布萊恩·菲茨傑拉德。

  • Brian Nicholas Fitzgerald - Senior Analyst

    Brian Nicholas Fitzgerald - Senior Analyst

  • Maybe 2 broader ones. What are you seeing in the broader pet household market in the U.S. and Canada. Are there differences between the two? What about shelters and rescue adoption levels, bring backs, any color on the market for pet households? And then can you give us an update on your advertising initiatives and what you're seeing and doing there?

    也許有2個更廣泛的。您在美國和加拿大更廣闊的寵物家庭市場中看到了什麼?兩者之間有差別嗎?庇護所和救援收養水準如何,帶回來的寵物家庭市場上有什麼顏色?那麼您能否向我們介紹一下您的廣告計劃以及您在那裡所看到和所做的事情的最新情況?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Brian, lots of questions. Let's unpack them one by one.

    布萊恩,有很多問題。讓我們一一拆開它們的包裝。

  • Broader pet household markets in U.S. and Canada, I talked about customer behavior through the holiday period, which is the most recent period that we were playing through. Similar participation rates, Canadian customers love the brand, the customer centricity, delivery experience, overall proposition, [a lot of] experiences, et cetera, are resonating very loudly there. So we're happy to see that.

    在美國和加拿大更廣泛的寵物家庭市場,我談到了假期期間的客戶行為,這是我們最近經歷的一段時間。類似的參與率,加拿大客戶喜歡這個品牌,以客戶為中心,交付體驗,整體主張,[很多]體驗等等,在那裡引起了非常響亮的共鳴。所以我們很高興看到這一點。

  • Differences that we're seeing slightly higher population or mix of cat relative to dog or as a result, we're going to see obviously slightly lower AOEs. Not a surprise, this is something that we knew going in studying the Canadian market. We're happy to see the mix that is playing through right now as we ramp -- continue to ramp up premium assortment that push us through from Q4 into Q1. We're going to see that premium mix jump even more. Also not a surprise.

    差異是我們看到貓相對於狗的族群或混合略高,或者因此,我們將看到明顯略低的 AOE。毫不奇怪,這是我們在研究加拿大市場時知道的事情。我們很高興看到隨著我們的發展,現在正在發揮作用 - 繼續增加優質品種,推動我們從第四季度進入第一季。我們將看到優質產品組合的跳躍式成長。也不足為奇。

  • So overall, I would say broadly, and just so you know, we haven't yet turned on marketing in Canada. We're playing through some basic cold start marketing, as you would expect a start up to do. And so we're essentially actively learning the market as we do in a humble and curious manner. But we're poised to receive the signals, and we like the signals that we're receiving right now.

    總的來說,我想說的是,我們還沒有在加拿大進行行銷活動。我們正在進行一些基本的冷啟動行銷,就像您期望新創公司所做的那樣。因此,我們本質上是在以謙虛和好奇的方式積極了解市場。但我們已經準備好接收訊號,而且我們喜歡現在收到的訊號。

  • Number two, any -- trends. Adoptions are down 16% year-over-year. Relinquishments are down 3% year-over-year. So what that tells you is that broader trends of pet adoptions being down hasn't reversed at the same time. Fewer pets were returned back to shelters to the tune of 3%. So overall, the trend hasn't broadly reversed.

    第二,任何趨勢。採用率較去年同期下降 16%。放棄數量較去年同期下降 3%。所以這告訴你的是,寵物收養量下降的更廣泛趨勢並沒有同時逆轉。返回收容所的寵物數量減少了 3%。因此,整體而言,此趨勢並未全面逆轉。

  • What else? Updates on advertising initiatives. We are pleased with the ramp. We have essentially released more supply. Our commitment was to start ramping this up in the back half of this year, and we've ramped up credibly. In fact, the gross margin, strong performance that we are seeing. We didn't actively put this in the script, it's a combination of -- the discipline from the team and execution and the 2 line items that are playing through our contribution of ads, as well as our work through supply chain into logistics, where we're seeing a better benefit come through.

    還有什麼?廣告計劃的更新。我們對坡道很滿意。我們基本上釋放了更多的供應。我們的承諾是在今年下半年開始加大力度,而且我們已經可靠地加大了力度。事實上,我們看到毛利率表現強勁。我們沒有主動將其放入腳本中,它是團隊紀律和執行力的結合,以及透過我們的廣告貢獻發揮作用的兩個項目,以及我們從供應鏈到物流的工作,其中我們看到了更好的效益。

  • So overall, we're happy suppliers. We're out in front to suppliers now as we get down into annual vendor negotiations. We're having good conversations listening to the right type of feedback, and we're poised to ramp this up in 2024.

    總的來說,我們是滿意的供應商。當我們開始年度供應商談判時,我們現在已經領先供應商了。我們正在進行良好的對話,聽取正確類型的回饋,並準備在 2024 年加強這一力度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Steve Forbes of Guggenheim.

    我們的下一個問題來自古根漢的史蒂夫福布斯。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • Sumit, I wanted to start on pharmacy sales. You mentioned achieving $1 billion on an LTM basis. So it's sort of a 2-part question. One, what was the growth rate during the quarter in sort of any context around gross margin benefit from that mix in isolation? And then two, I know, Sumit, we've talked in the past about the share of pharmacy within your pharmacy customer base. What does that $1 billion represent in terms of share?

    Sumit,我想從藥品銷售開始。您提到在 LTM 基礎上實現 10 億美元。所以這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。第一,在孤立地從這種組合中獲得毛利率收益的情況下,本季的成長率是多少?然後有兩個,我知道,蘇米特,我們過去討論過藥房在藥房客戶群中的份額。就份額而言,這 10 億美元代表什麼?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Steve, nice to hear from you. We will satisfy more of your curiosity next week when we see you at Investor Day.

    是的。史蒂夫,很高興收到你的來信。下週我們在投資者日見到您時,我們將進一步滿足您的好奇心。

  • In terms of mix and gross margin, we -- obviously, pharmacy delivers premium gross margins, as we've said in the past. And essentially, what we saw in Q3 is pharmacy overdelivering through gross margin, offsetting all of the decline that we saw from the higher-margin hard goods businesses, which are obviously slower given the discretionary pressures that we're seeing.

    就組合和毛利率而言,正如我們過去所說,顯然,藥房提供了優質的毛利率。從本質上講,我們在第三季度看到的是藥品透過毛利率實現超額交付,抵消了我們從利潤率較高的耐用品業務中看到的所有下降,考慮到我們所看到的可自由支配的壓力,這些業務的成長速度顯然較慢。

  • So for now, I'll give you -- I'll leave you with that qualitative commentary. And in terms of presenting CAGRs and growth rates and share positions, we will talk about that more next week.

    所以現在,我會給你——我會給你留下定性評論。在呈現複合年增長率、成長率和份額地位方面,我們將在下週進行更多討論。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just a quick follow-up, right? I think we noticed some shipping threshold changes during the quarter. I don't know if you can maybe just help frame to the group here. Why did you test lower threshold, what drove you to that decision? And what does those learnings informed you about that part of the value proposition in the current backdrop?

    好的。然後也許只是快速跟進,對吧?我認為我們注意到本季的運輸門檻發生了一些變化。我不知道你是否可以幫助這裡的小組。為什麼要測試較低的門檻,是什麼促使你做出這個決定?這些經驗讓您了解了當前背景下價值主張的哪些部分?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Yes. It's all -- it's -- I like your framing, right? What did you learn? Because it is all part of our continuous test and learn in how to add more value from the platform into the customer. And there are a couple of ways you can add value. You can price discount brands transactionally. And that, to us, sometimes becomes brand dilutive and you don't really drive recurring sort of behavior shifts.

    是的。這一切——這——我喜歡你的框架,對吧?你學到了什麼?因為這是我們持續測試和學習如何從平台為客戶增加更多價值的一部分。有幾種方法可以增加價值。您可以透過交易方式為折扣品牌定價。對我們來說,有時會稀釋品牌,而你並不能真正推動反覆出現的行為轉變。

  • The other one is testing or lowering barriers for customers. And so in this particular way, we're testing it shipping across certain categories or certain merge classes or certain segments of customers is a barrier in how we essentially pass value directly back to the customer without -- while at the same time, protecting our vendor partner brands that we've so proudly built on our platform.

    另一項是測試或降低客戶障礙。因此,以這種特殊的方式,我們正在測試跨某些類別或某些合併類別或某些客戶群的運輸,這是我們如何將價值直接傳遞回客戶的障礙,同時又不保護我們的產品。我們很自豪地在我們的平台上建立的供應商合作夥伴品牌。

  • So this is something that you will continue to see from us. If we signal any broad shifts, we'll be transparent around that. For the most part, we're liking some of the elasticity that we're seeing around seasonal trends. On others, we've always been proud of the fact that customers build really healthy baskets with us. So what some other brands might feel as barriers are not always barriers when you interact with Chewy. So it's a healthy set of learnings that we're going through.

    因此,您將繼續從我們身上看到這一點。如果我們發出任何廣泛的轉變訊號,我們將對此保持透明。在大多數情況下,我們喜歡季節性趨勢的一些彈性。在其他方面,我們一直為客戶與我們一起打造真正健康的籃子感到自豪。因此,當您與 Chewy 互動時,其他一些品牌可能認為的障礙並不總是障礙。因此,我們正在經歷一系列健康的學習。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Lee Horowitz with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lee Horowitz。

  • Lee Horowitz - Research Analyst

    Lee Horowitz - Research Analyst

  • A couple if I could. I guess with user pressures persisting longer than you guys would have thought entering the year, how do you get comfortable with the idea that Chewy can, in fact, grow users even if pet household formation remains under pressure for a sustained period of time?

    如果可以的話,一對。我想,進入今年,用戶壓力持續的時間比你們想像的要長,即使寵物家庭的形成在持續一段時間內持續面臨壓力,Chewy 實際上可以增加用戶,您對此有何看法?

  • And then secondly, I know this is a topic that we will dive deeper on next week. But can you comment at all on how CarePlus adoption or customer adoption rates have materialized in the back half of this year? And perhaps how do you guys think about driving greater adoption of Chewy services broadly?

    其次,我知道這是我們下週將深入討論的主題。但您能否對今年下半年 CarePlus 的採用率或客戶採用率的實現發表評論?也許你們如何看待推動 Chewy 服務的廣泛採用?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure. The second part of your question around CarePlus and driving services adoption, we will answer more holistically next week. We promise to bring you a really engaging and comprehensive update there. So thank you for your patience on that.

    當然。關於 CarePlus 和推動服務採用的問題的第二部分,我們將在下週進行更全面的回答。我們承諾為您帶來真正引人入勝且全面的更新。感謝您對此的耐心等待。

  • On the first part of your question around how do we get comfortable with the idea that Chewy can still grow active customers. So I will say 2 things. First of all, we're a young player, right? We are a 12-year-old company. So we're obviously learning through a lot of these trends. But we have the benefit of having strategic relationships with our vendor partners who've played through the pet category for decades.

    關於你的問題的第一部分,我們如何接受 Chewy 仍然可以發展活躍客戶的想法。所以我要說兩件事。首先,我們是一名年輕球員,對吧?我們是一家有12年歷史的公司。因此,我們顯然正在從許多這些趨勢中學習。但我們的優勢在於與數十年來涉足寵物產業的供應商合作夥伴建立了策略關係。

  • And so when we sit with them and understand historical data, times that the pet industry has been pressured and break down the components of pet growth, tonnage growth, ASP growth, et cetera, et cetera. Everything points to the fact that pet ultimately comes out resilient. Right now, pet household formation is muted, and it's muted because of the high kind of pressures that consumers are seeing from every direction. But it is expected that this will abate or no reason to believe why this will not abate.

    因此,當我們與他們坐在一起了解歷史數據時,寵物產業受到壓力,並分解寵物成長、噸位成長、平均售價成長等組成部分。一切都表明,寵物最終會變得有彈性。目前,寵物家庭的形成乏善可陳,這是因為消費者從各方面都面臨巨大的壓力。但預計這種情況將會減弱,或沒有理由相信這種情況不會減弱。

  • In fact, in 2006 recession, or '06 to '08, when overall CPT spending was down 2%, pet was actually up 6% during that time. And there's this element of companionship that continues to play through. If you look at the last 10 years, premiumization has had a big impact. So the humanization and premiumization trends are expected to continue. The difference in '06 versus -- 2006 to '08 versus now is that the level of inflation that have passed through the system have been unprecedented. So it's taking recovery that usually takes 4 to 6 quarters, has essentially taken a bit longer, but ultimately is expected to return back to normal levels. So that's sort of one industry context.

    事實上,在 2006 年經濟衰退期間,即 06 年至 08 年,整體 CPT 支出下降了 2%,而寵物支出實際上增加了 6%。這種陪伴的元素一直在發揮作用。如果你看看過去十年,你會發現高端化產生了巨大的影響。因此,人性化和高端化趨勢預計將持續下去。 06年與2006年至08年與現在的差異在於,系統中的通貨膨脹水準是前所未有的。因此,通常需要 4 到 6 個季度才能恢復,實際上需要更長的時間,但最終預計會恢復到正常水平。這就是一種產業背景。

  • The second reason why we feel confident is because the structural value proposition that is fueled both by new customer acquisition but also growing share of wallet is highly, highly sound at Chewy. The way that we acquire and then build baskets with you, the complementarity of features that we put on top of consumables and getting you into health care and then selling you an insurance and building your share of wallet, which by the way, we will provide more intuition into next week when we see you for Investor Day, allows us to sit back and evaluate the long-term trajectory of our consumer being highly recurring in nature and highly profit contributing to the bottom line.

    我們充滿信心的第二個原因是,新客戶獲取和錢包份額不斷增長所推動的結構性價值主張在 Chewy 非常非常健全。我們購買並與您一起建立籃子的方式,我們在消耗品之上添加的功能的互補性,讓您進入醫療保健,然後向您出售保險並建立您的錢包份額,順便說一下,我們將提供當當我們在下週的投資者日見到您時,我們會更加直觀地了解您的情況,這使我們能夠坐下來評估消費者的長期軌跡,這些消費者本質上是高度重複的,並且對利潤有貢獻的高利潤。

  • So I think with the 2 flywheels, the acquisition and the share of wallet growth, it provides us a defensible moat around models that primarily have either fixed subscription service on one side or that must acquire customers to continue delivering topline algorithm growth.

    因此,我認為,透過兩個飛輪、收購和錢包成長份額,它為我們提供了一條圍繞模型的防禦護城河,這些模型主要是一方面有固定訂閱服務,或者必須獲取客戶以繼續實現營收演算法成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question today comes from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

    今天我們的最後一個問題來自魯佩什·帕里克和奧本海默。

  • Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Just going back to Canada. Your commentary there was very upbeat. Just any surprises thus far in terms of how that launch is going?

    剛回加拿大。你的評論非常樂觀。到目前為止,發射進度如何,有什麼驚喜嗎?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • It's a very good question. Our surprises are always around how could we have moved faster. So no particular surprises. It's just learnings that we sort of internally ramp up to ourselves. How can we move faster, expanding regions? How do we double down on ramping more assortment up? How do we understand consumer behavior better.

    這是一個非常好的問題。我們的驚喜總是圍繞著我們如何能夠更快地行動。所以沒有特別的驚喜。這只是我們在內部提升自己的學習。我們如何更快地行動、擴大地區?我們如何加倍努力增加更多品種?我們如何更了解消費者行為。

  • So it's just all of those areas that we're focused on, I would say, all the right things per se, but it's a good one. I'll give the surprise a little more thought and perhaps we can talk next week when we see each other.

    因此,我想說的是,我們關注的所有這些領域本身都是正確的,但這是一件好事。我會多考慮這個驚喜,也許我們可以在下週見面時再談。

  • We really appreciate your time, and we hope to see you all next week. Thank you.

    我們非常感謝您的寶貴時間,希望下週見到大家。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。