(CHWY) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Chewy fourth-quarter FY23 earnings call.

您好，歡迎參加 Chewy 2023 財年第四季財報電話會議。

My name is Elliot, and I'll be coordinating your call today.

我叫艾利歐特，今天我將協調您的電話。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Now, I'd like to hand over to Jen Hsu, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將工作交給副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Jen Hsu。

The floor is yours.

地板是你的。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you for joining us on the call today to discuss our fourth-quarter and full-year results for fiscal year 2023.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，討論我們 2023 財年第四季和全年業績。

Joining me today are Chewy's CEO, Sumit Singh, and CFO, David Reeder.

今天加入我的是 Chewy 的執行長 Sumit Singh 和財務長 David Reeder。

Our earnings release and letter to shareholders, which were filed with the SEC earlier today, has been posted to the Investor Relations section of our website, investor.chewy.com.

今天稍早向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和致股東的信函已發佈到我們網站 Investor.chewy.com 的投資者關係部分。

On our call today, we will be making forward-looking statements, including statements concerning Chewy's financial results and performance, industry trends, strategic initiatives, and the environment that we operate in.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，包括有關 Chewy 的財務業績和業績、行業趨勢、策略舉措以及我們營運環境的聲明。

Such statements are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors described in the section titled Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K and 8-K filed earlier today and in our other filings with the SEC, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements.

根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，此類陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並受到某些風險、不確定性以及我們提交的10-K 和8-K 表格年度報告中標題為「風險因素」部分所述的其他因素的影響。今天早些時候以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中，這可能會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性聲明中預期的結果存在重大差異。

Reported results should not be considered an indication of future performance.

報告的結果不應被視為未來績效的指標。

Also note that the forward-looking statements on this call are based on information available to us as of today's date.

另請注意，本次電話會議的前瞻性陳述是基於截至今天為止我們所掌握的資訊。

We disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Also during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，在本次電話會議中，我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided on our Investor Relations website and in our earnings release and letter to shareholders, which were filed with the SEC earlier today.

我們的投資者關係網站以及今天稍早向 SEC 提交的收益報告和致股東的信中提供了這些非 GAAP 項目與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

These non-GAAP measures are not intended as a substitute for GAAP results.

這些非公認會計準則衡量標準並非旨在取代公認會計準則結果。

Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons discussed today will be against the comparable period of fiscal year 2022.

此外，除非另有說明，今天討論的所有比較都將針對 2022 財年的可比較期間。

Finally, this call, in its entirety, is being webcast on our Investor Relations website.

最後，本次電話會議的全部內容將在我們的投資者關係網站上進行網路直播。

A replay of the webcast will also be made available on our Investor Relations website shortly.

網路廣播的重播也將很快在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Sumit.

我現在想把電話轉給蘇米特。

Thanks, Jen, and thank you all for joining us on the call today.

謝謝 Jen，也謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

Before we cover our fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results, I'm thrilled to welcome David Reeder, who joined us in February as our Chief Financial Officer.

在我們報道 2023 年第四季和全年業績之前，我很高興歡迎 David Reeder，他於 2 月加入我們，擔任我們的財務長。

David is a key addition to our leadership team, and I look forward to having many of whom engage with him in his new role.

大衛是我們領導團隊的重要補充，我期待許多人在他的新角色中與他合作。

I would also like to direct Stacy Bowman for her support as Interim CFO.

我還想指示史黛西·鮑曼 (Stacy Bowman) 作為臨時財務長的支持。

Now, let's review our results.

現在，讓我們回顧一下我們的結果。

The team delivered a strong finish to the year with our fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 performance demonstrating our ability to deliver market share-gaining growth, while simultaneously expanding margins and accelerating free cash flow generation.

該團隊在 2023 年第四季和全年業績中取得了強勁的業績，證明了我們有能力實現市場份額成長，同時擴大利潤率並加速自由現金流的產生。

I will provide an overview of our performance, followed by some perspectives on the pet industry and Chewy's strategic priorities as we embark on 2024.

我將概述我們的業績，然後是對寵物產業的一些看法以及 Chewy 進入 2024 年的策略重點。

Dave will then discuss our financial results in greater detail and share our guidance for the year.

然後戴夫將更詳細地討論我們的財務表現並分享我們今年的指導。

Q4 net sales increased by 4% to $2.83 billion, resulting in full-year 2023 net sales of $11.15 billion, representing 10% year-over-year growth.

第四季淨銷售額成長 4%，達到 28.3 億美元，2023 年全年淨銷售額達 111.5 億美元，較去年同期成長 10%。

Our favorable mix of non-discretionary consumables and health categories continues to be a pillar of strength for Chewy, representing approximately 85% of full-year 2023 net sales.

我們對非必需消費品和健康品類的有利組合仍然是 Chewy 的優勢支柱，約佔 2023 年全年淨銷售額的 85%。

Additionally, our Autoship subscription program, which delivered $8.5 billion of Autoship customer sales in full year 2023, continues to provide unparalleled convenience for pet parents while enhancing customer stickiness for Chewy.

此外，我們的 Autoship 訂閱計劃在 2023 年全年為 Autoship 客戶帶來了 85 億美元的銷售額，繼續為寵物父母提供無與倫比的便利，同時增強 Chewy 的客戶黏著度。

Growth in Autoship customer sales meaningfully outpaced overall top line growth, increasing by 8% in the quarter and nearly 15% for the full year 2023.

Autoship 客戶銷售額的成長顯著超過了整體營收成長，本季成長 8%，2023 年全年成長近 15%。

We continue to deepen our engagement with existing customers and delivered compelling wallet share growth.

我們繼續深化與現有客戶的合作，並實現了令人矚目的錢包份額成長。

Net sales per active customer, or NSPAC, grew to $555, a year-over-year increase of approximately 12%.

每位活躍客戶的淨銷售額 (NSPAC) 成長至 555 美元，年增約 12%。

We believe there is significant runway for further NSPAC expansion, particularly as we continued to expand our product and services offerings across our pet platform.

我們相信 NSPAC 的進一步擴張還有很大的空間，特別是當我們繼續在寵物平台上擴展我們的產品和服務時。

Progressing through the P&L, we are incredibly proud of our ability to deliver consistent profitability expansion over time.

隨著損益表的不斷進步，我們對自己能夠隨著時間的推移實現持續獲利成長的能力感到無比自豪。

Our gross margin exceeded 28% for both the fourth quarter and the full year 2023, representing an improvement over the prior-year period.

我們第四季和 2023 年全年的毛利率均超過 28%，較上年同期有所改善。

Our performance throughout the holiday season was in line with expectations, including as it relates to promotional activity.

我們整個假期的表現符合預期，包括與促銷活動相關的表現。

As planned, our sponsored ads program also continued to ramp throughout the latter half of the year and increasingly supported our gross margin performance.

按照計劃，我們的搜尋廣告計劃在下半年也持續成長，並日益支持我們的毛利率表現。

We achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.1% for the quarter and 3.3% for the full year, a continued improvement relative to full year 2022.

我們本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.1%，全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.3%，相對 2022 年全年持續改善。

Our results reflect our ability to deliver improved profitability on a steady and consistent basis, even while concurrently investing in planned growth initiatives that we expect will deliver long-term value to shareholders.

我們的業績反映了我們穩定、一致地提高獲利能力的能力，即使同時投資於我們預計將為股東帶來長期價值的計畫成長計畫。

Finally, expanding margins, coupled with disciplined capital spending, has allowed us to generate meaningful level those of free cash flow.

最後，不斷擴大的利潤率，加上嚴格的資本支出，使我們能夠產生有意義的自由現金流。

We exceeded our 2023 free cash flow expectations and generated more than $340 million of free cash flow, nearly three times our 2022 free cash flow.

我們超越了 2023 年自由現金流預期，產生了超過 3.4 億美元的自由現金流，幾乎是 2022 年自由現金流的三倍。

We have reached an exciting inflection point in this area and expect to generate substantial free cash flow on a go-forward basis.

我們在這一領域已經達到了一個令人興奮的轉折點，並期望在未來的基礎上產生大量的自由現金流。

As we close the quarter and 2023, let me now spend a few moments framing our view on the pet industry and Chewy's outlook.

在本季和 2023 年即將結束之際，讓我花一些時間來闡述我們對寵物產業和 Chewy 前景的看法。

We operate in the approximately $144 billion US pet market, comprised of pet food and supplies sized at roughly $87 billion; pet health, contributing roughly $47 billion; and pet services, representing roughly $10 billion.

我們在價值約 1,440 億美元的美國寵物市場開展業務，其中寵物食品和用品規模約為 870 億美元；寵物健康，貢獻約 470 億美元；寵物服務，價值約 100 億美元。

On top of that, following our expansion into Canada in Q3 of 2023, we now also participate in the roughly $10 billion Canadian pet market.

最重要的是，繼 2023 年第三季擴展到加拿大之後，我們現在也參與了價值約 100 億美元的加拿大寵物市場。

A pet category is a recession-resilient, above-GDP-growth industry that is increasingly moving online.

寵物品類是一個能夠抵禦經濟衰退、成長高於 GDP 成長的行業，並且越來越多地轉向線上。

Chewy has been and remains a key driver and beneficiary of this strength.

Chewy 一直是並且仍然是這種優勢的主要推動者和受益者。

As we enter the new fiscal year, it is helpful to characterize 2024 industry expectations in the context of historical performance.

當我們進入新的財年時，在歷史表現的背景下描述 2024 年的行業預期是有幫助的。

Over a multi-decade period, the overall pet industry grew at an annual rate in the mid-single digits.

在過去的幾十年裡，整個寵物產業的年增長率為中個位數。

This growth was predicated on low single-digit unit growth in addition to low single-digit pricing growth, with further growth supported by secular premiumization trend.

這一成長的基礎是低個位數的單位成長以及低個位數的定價成長，而進一步的成長受到長期高端化趨勢的支持。

Looking ahead, the pet category is projected to grow at a similar rate over a multi-year forward period.

展望未來，寵物類別預計在未來多年內將以類似的速度成長。

However, in 2024, year-over-year growth for the industry is expected to be lower than historical average.

然而，到2024年，該行業的同比增長預計將低於歷史平均水平。

Unit growth is expected to be muted due to pet household formation trends that remain below historical levels.

由於寵物家庭形成趨勢仍低於歷史水平，因此預計單位成長將放緩。

As it relates to pricing, while we are not anticipating a deflationary environment, we expect no material pricing benefit on industry growth in 2024.

由於它與定價有關，雖然我們預計不會出現通貨緊縮環境，但我們預計 2024 年產業成長不會出現實質的定價優勢。

These inputs will most likely result in a year of modest growth for the industry, setting up the industry for a return to normality in 2025.

這些投入很可能會導致該行業在這一年實現溫和成長，為該行業在 2025 年恢復正常奠定基礎。

Irrespective of the industry environment, we expect to continue to gain market share in 2024.

無論產業環境如何，我們預計 2024 年將繼續獲得市場份額。

Speaking to our profitability expectations, we expect to deliver continued adjusted EBITDA margin expansion this year, irrespective of the macro and industry growth backdrop.

談到我們的獲利預期，無論宏觀和產業成長背景如何，我們預計今年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將持續擴張。

As a foundation, our well-established Chewy retail business is benefiting from economies of scale.

作為基礎，我們完善的 Chewy 零售業務受益於規模經濟。

On top of this, our fast-growing Chewy health business and important Chewy retail initiatives, such as sponsored ads, are expected to continue to drive gross margin expansion.

除此之外，我們快速成長的 Chewy 健康業務和重要的 Chewy 零售計劃（例如搜尋廣告）預計將繼續推動毛利率擴張。

Additionally, this year, we expect our ongoing automation efforts and OpEx discipline to positively offset our investments, delivering SG&A leverage in full year 2024 relative to full year 2023.

此外，今年，我們預計我們正在進行的自動化工作和營運支出紀律將積極抵消我們的投資，相對於 2023 年全年，在 2024 年全年提供 SG&A 槓桿。

These collective efforts are expected to drive increasing adjusted EBITDA flow through in 2024.

這些集體努力預計將推動 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 流量的增加。

When coupled with our high levels of capital efficiency, enabled by the critical mass we have reached with respect to our distribution infrastructure, we expect to generate meaningful and increasing levels of free cash flow in 2024 and the years ahead.

再加上我們在分銷基礎設施方面所達到的臨界質量所實現的高水準資本效率，我們預計將在 2024 年及未來幾年產生有意義且不斷增加的自由現金流。

Now let me provide commentary on some of our newer strategic initiatives that we believe will drive sustainable growth and profit in the future years.

現在讓我對我們的一些新策略舉措發表評論，我們相信這些策略舉措將在未來幾年推動永續成長和利潤。

We are excited about strategic priorities, such as our recently announced Chewy Vet Care clinic, which allows us to expand our TAM by another approximately $25 billion to address the entirety of the $47 billion US pet health market.

我們對策略重點感到興奮，例如我們最近宣布的 Chewy Vet Care 診所，它使我們能夠將 TAM 規模再擴大約 250 億美元，以滿足整個 470 億美元的美國寵物健康市場的需求。

Chewy Vet Care has the potential to drive both NSPAC and active customer growth over time, while also offering a steady state margin profile materially above our current businesses.

隨著時間的推移，Chewy Vet Care 有潛力推動 NSPAC 和活躍客戶的成長，同時也提供遠高於我們目前業務的穩定利潤率。

We believe Chewy Vet Care is a natural extension of our ecosystem and that our thoughtfully designed clinics will be unlike anything in the market, thanks to our proprietary first-party health tech platform and the seamless, vertically integrated connectivity to all aspects of the Chewy ecosystem.

我們相信Chewy Vet Care 是我們生態系統的自然延伸，並且我們精心設計的診所將不同於市場上的任何診所，這要歸功於我們專有的第一方健康技術平台以及與Chewy 生態系統各個方面的無縫、垂直整合的連接。

This includes our B2C e-commerce platform for products, such as core and veterinary died food, pharmacy, and supplements; our emerging B2C services, such as telehealth and insurance; as well as our B2B solutions for veterinary practitioners to streamline their operations.

這包括我們的B2C產品電子商務平台，例如核心和獸醫死亡食品、藥品和補充劑；我們新興的 B2C 服務，例如遠距醫療和保險；以及我們為獸醫從業人員提供的 B2B 解決方案，以簡化他們的操作。

We anticipate opening four to eight clinics this fiscal year, with our first location slated to launch in Florida, close to our company headquarters, and several additional locations scheduled to open in the first half of 2024.

我們預計本財年將開設四到八家診所，我們的第一家診所計劃在靠近公司總部的佛羅裡達州開設，另外幾個診所計劃於 2024 年上半年開設。

We are very excited to share that our first clinic is already accepting appointments from family and friends, and we expect it to be open to the public imminently.

我們非常高興地告訴大家，我們的第一家診所已經開始接受家人和朋友的預約，我們預計它很快就會向公眾開放。

Two key leading indicators of success that we plan to track closely include vet hiring and customer demand generation.

我們計劃密切追蹤的兩個關鍵成功指標包括獸醫招募和客戶需求產生。

As it relates to vet hiring, we are encouraged by the early signals around our vet recruitment processes and already have our first sites fully staffed.

由於涉及獸醫招聘，我們對獸醫招聘流程的早期信號感到鼓舞，並且我們的第一個站點已經配備了充足的人員。

We look forward to keeping them informed on our progress around this initiative as we progress through the year.

我們期待著讓他們隨時了解我們在這一年中所取得的進展。

Elsewhere, Canada continues to ramp per our expectations and, overall, will remain immaterial to 2024 financials, given that new markets take some time to achieve scale.

在其他地方，加拿大繼續按照我們的預期成長，總體而言，考慮到新市場需要一段時間才能達到規模，這對 2024 年的財務狀況仍然不重要。

We are encouraged by the initial customer and supplier response that we have received.

我們收到的最初客戶和供應商的回應令我們感到鼓舞。

We continue to expand our offerings for customers, with assortments significantly increasing since our launch only a few months ago.

我們持續擴大為客戶提供的產品範圍，自幾個月前推出以來，產品種類顯著增加。

We are further excited by the launch of many customer-facing shopping features, such as our mobile app and additional customer-friendly payment and basket-building mechanisms, which are forthcoming in the first quarter of 2024.

我們對許多面向客戶的購物功能的推出感到更加興奮，例如我們的行動應用程式以及其他客戶友好型支付和購物籃機制，這些功能將於 2024 年第一季推出。

Success metrics that we are tracking closely, such as basket sizes and Autoship sign-up rates; as well as other customer experience metrics, such as delivery speed and reliability, remain healthy, providing positive indications for the business we are building in Canada.

我們正在密切追蹤的成功指標，例如購物籃大小和自動出貨註冊率；以及其他客戶體驗指標（例如交付速度和可靠性）保持健康，為我們在加拿大開展的業務提供了積極的跡象。

In summary, we remain highly focused on advancing our enduring mission of being the most trusted and convenient destination for pet parents and partners everywhere, and we are incredibly excited about the opportunities ahead for our business.

總而言之，我們仍然高度專注於推進我們的持久使命，即成為世界各地寵物父母和合作夥伴最值得信賴和最方便的目的地，我們對我們的業務未來的機會感到非常興奮。

We believe we are well positioned to continue driving innovation across the pet category, while simultaneously creating significant value for our shareholders.

我們相信，我們有能力繼續推動整個寵物類別的創新，同時為我們的股東創造巨大的價值。

With that, I will turn it over to Dave.

有了這個，我會把它交給戴夫。

Thank you, Sumit.

謝謝你，蘇米特。

Before covering our quarterly and annual results, I'd like to take a moment to explain why I'm so excited to be part of Chewy.

在介紹我們的季度和年度業績之前，我想花點時間解釋為什麼我對成為 Chewy 的一員感到如此興奮。

First, I'm a passionate pet parent and one or Chewy's 20 million loyal customers.

首先，我是一位熱情的寵物家長，也是 Chewy 的 2,000 萬忠實客戶之一。

We believe that the level of service that Chewy provides to customers is unmatched in the industry, and I wanted to be a part of the company that is the most trusted and convenient destination for pet parents and partners everywhere.

我們相信 Chewy 為客戶提供的服務水準在業界是無與倫比的，我希望成為該公司的一員，該公司是世界各地寵物父母和合作夥伴最值得信賴和最方便的目的地。

But besides being passionate about the Chevy brand, I'm incredibly excited about the company's opportunities.

但除了對雪佛蘭品牌充滿熱情之外，我對公司的機會也感到非常興奮。

We have a highly predictable, attractive business model, where more than 75% of our approximately $11 billion 2023 sales was driven by Autoship customer sales, resulting in a subscription-like revenue stream.

我們擁有高度可預測且有吸引力的商業模式，2023 年約 110 億美元的銷售額中，超過 75% 是由 Autoship 客戶銷售推動的，從而產生了類似訂閱的收入流。

With our world-class infrastructure now having reached critical mass, we expect to deliver increasingly higher adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow.

隨著我們世界一流的基礎設施現已達到臨界質量，我們預計將提供越來越高的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率和自由現金流。

In summary, Chewy appealed to both my heart and my head.

總而言之，Chewy 既吸引了我的心，也吸引了我的頭腦。

I couldn't be more excited about the road ahead, and I look forward to getting to know many of you over the many quarters to come.

我對未來的道路感到非常興奮，我期待在未來的許多季度中認識你們中的許多人。

Now let's review our financial results.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們的財務表現。

Fourth-quarter net sales grew 4.2% to $2.83 billion, bringing our full-year 2023 net sales to $11.15 billion, representing 10.2% growth year over year and exceeding the high end of the guidance ranges that we provided last quarter.

第四季淨銷售額成長 4.2%，達到 28.3 億美元，使我們 2023 年全年淨銷售額達到 111.5 億美元，年增 10.2%，超過我們上季度提供的指導範圍的上限。

Autoship customer sales came in at $2.16 billion in Q4 and $8.49 billion for the year.

第四季 Autoship 客戶銷售額為 21.6 億美元，全年為 84.9 億美元。

Growth in Autoship customer sales outpaced overall top line growth by 390 basis points in Q4 and by 450 basis points in full year 2023.

Autoship 客戶銷售額的成長在第四季比整體營收成長高出 390 個基點，在 2023 年全年高出 450 個基點。

Autoship customer sales represented 76.4% and 76.2% of our total net sales in Q4 and full year 2023, respectively.

Autoship 客戶銷售額分別占我們 2023 年第四季和全年淨銷售額總額的 76.4% 和 76.2%。

Chewy continued to consolidate share of wallet, with NSPAC reaching a new record of $555, representing a $59 increase and 11.9% year-over-year growth rate.

Chewy 繼續鞏固錢包份額，NSPAC 達到 555 美元的新紀錄，增加了 59 美元，年成長率為 11.9%。

Active customers declined slightly on a sequential basis in Q4, in line with expectations, ending the year at $20.1 million.

第四季活躍客戶數量較上季略有下降，符合預期，年終客戶數為 2,010 萬美元。

Moving down the P&L, we reported Q4 gross margins of 28.2% and full-year 2023 gross margin of 28.4%.

從損益表來看，我們報告第四季毛利率為 28.2%，2023 年全年毛利率為 28.4%。

On a sequential basis, Q4 gross margin decreased by 30 basis points, reflecting the promotional calendar and peak surcharges typical for the holiday period.

環比而言，第四季毛利率下降了 30 個基點，反映了促銷日曆和假期期間典型的附加費高峰。

Gross margin for the year expanded by 40 basis points, aided by our newly launched sponsored ads initiative, which had its strongest contribution in the fourth quarter of 2023.

在我們新推出的搜尋廣告計畫的幫助下，今年的毛利率擴大了 40 個基點，該計畫在 2023 年第四季的貢獻最為強勁。

We expect continued growth from sponsored ads throughout 2024.

我們預計 2024 年搜尋廣告將持續成長。

Moving to OpEx, please note that my discussion of SG&A excludes share-based compensation expense and related taxes.

轉向營運支出，請注意，我對銷售及管理費用的討論不包括基於股份的補償費用和相關稅費。

SG&A totaled $565.4 million or 20.2% of net sales in the fourth quarter.

SG&A 總計 5.654 億美元，佔第四季淨銷售額的 20.2%。

SG&A in the quarter included approximately $14 million of severance-related expenses associated with the corporate restructuring actions taken in the fourth quarter.

本季的 SG&A 包括與第四季採取的公司重組行動相關的約 1,400 萬美元的遣散費相關費用。

For the full year 2023, SG&A represented 19.7% of net sales.

2023 年全年，SG&A 佔淨銷售額的 19.7%。

Fourth-quarter advertising and marketing expense was $194 million or 6.9% of net sales.

第四季廣告和行銷費用為 1.94 億美元，佔淨銷售額的 6.9%。

For fiscal year 2023, advertising and marketing expense was $742.5 million and represented 6.7% of net sales.

2023 財年，廣告和行銷費用為 7.425 億美元，佔淨銷售額的 6.7%。

Fourth-quarter adjusted net income was $80.3 million, and full-year 2023 adjusted net income came in at $296.2 million.

第四季調整後淨利為 8,030 萬美元，2023 年全年調整後淨利為 2.962 億美元。

We reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.1% for the quarter and 3.3% for the full year, or 30 basis points of margin expansion relative to fiscal 2022.

我們公佈的季度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.1%，全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.3%，相對於 2022 財年，利潤率擴大了 30 個基點。

We continue to be proud of our ability to invest in strategic growth initiatives while concurrently delivering higher adjusted EBITDA margins.

我們繼續為我們投資策略成長計畫的能力感到自豪，同時提供更高的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

As Sumit noted earlier, Chewy has reached an exciting inflection point as it relates to free cash flow generation.

正如 Sumit 早些時候指出的那樣，Chewy 已經達到了一個令人興奮的拐點，因為它與自由現金流的產生有關。

In the fourth quarter, we reported free cash flow of $67.2 million.

第四季度，我們報告的自由現金流為 6,720 萬美元。

And in fiscal year 2023, we exceeded our free cash flow expectations and generated $342.9 million of free cash flow, representing nearly three times our free cash flow generation in 2022.

在 2023 財年，我們超越了自由現金流預期，產生了 3.429 億美元的自由現金流，幾乎是 2022 年自由現金流產生的三倍。

Our full-year 2023 free cash flow reflects $486.2 million of net cash provided by operating activities and $143 million of capital expenditures.

我們的 2023 年全年自由現金流反映了經營活動提供的 4.862 億美元淨現金和 1.43 億美元的資本支出。

Capital expenditures for the year were primarily driven by automation-related investments made across our fulfillment center network and ongoing technology projects.

本年度的資本支出主要由我們的履行中心網絡和正在進行的技術項目中與自動化相關的投資所驅動。

We remain highly disciplined with respect to our capital spending.

我們在資本支出方面仍然保持嚴格的紀律。

And with 2023 CapEx representing approximately 1.3% of net sales, slightly below our target range of 1.5% to 2% of net sales.

2023 年資本支出約佔淨銷售額的 1.3%，略低於我們 1.5% 至 2% 淨銷售額的目標範圍。

We ended the year with $1.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities, over [$415 million] higher than our ending balance in 2022.

截至年底，我們的現金和現金等價物以及有價證券為 11 億美元，比 2022 年的期末餘額高出超過 [4.15 億美元]。

We continued to remain debt-free and maintain a strong liquidity position of $1.9 billion.

我們繼續保持無債務狀態，並保持 19 億美元的強勁流動性部位。

Now that I've concluded our fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 recap, I'd like to discuss our first-quarter and full-year 2024 outlook.

現在我已經結束了 2023 年第四季和全年回顧，我想討論一下我們對 2024 年第一季和全年的展望。

Let me start by saying that we have a high degree of confidence in our ability to deliver on the strategic roadmap and long-term financial model that the team outlined at Chewy's Investor Day in December.

首先我要說的是，我們對實現團隊在 12 月 Chewy 投資者日上概述的策略路線圖和長期財務模型的能力充滿信心。

We continue to manage Chewy for the long term and are focused on executing through the near-term macroeconomic environment.

我們將繼續對 Chewy 進行長期管理，並專注於在近期宏觀經濟環境中執行任務。

In December, we detailed our pathway to continue delivering market share, gain in growth, margin expansion, and meaningful free cash flow generation.

12 月，我們詳細介紹了繼續提供市場份額、成長收益、利潤擴張和有意義的自由現金流產生的途徑。

We expect to make progress across all three of these areas in the coming year, as we did in 2023.

我們預計來年將在所有這三個領域取得進展，就像我們在 2023 年所做的那樣。

With that, we anticipate first-quarter net sales of between $2.84 billion and $2.86 billion, or approximately 2% year-over-year growth, and full-year 2024 net sales of between $11.6 billion and $11.8 billion, or approximately 4% to 6% year-over-year growth.

據此，我們預計第一季淨銷售額將在28.4 億美元至28.6 億美元之間，年增約2%，2024 年全年淨銷售額將在116 億美元至118 億美元之間，即約4% 至6 億美元。 % 年成長。

This range includes the impact of a 53-week 2024 fiscal year, and the 53rd week will be fully reflected in the fourth quarter of 2024.

該範圍包括2024財年53週的影響，第53週將在2024年第四季全面體現。

As it relates to the components of our net sales growth, we believe our 2024 growth will be primarily driven by NSPAC expansion.

由於它與我們淨銷售額成長的組成部分相關，我們相信我們 2024 年的成長將主要由 NSPAC 擴張推動。

In light of the continued macro headwinds and subdued pet household formation trends, we expect active customers to be approximately flat in 2024.

鑑於持續的宏觀不利因素和寵物家庭形成趨勢的低迷，我們預計 2024 年活躍客戶數量將基本持平。

Moving to profitability guidance, we anticipate full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 3.8%.

轉向獲利指引，我們預計 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 3.8%。

This will be driven by both continued gross margin expansion as well as SG&A leverage.

這將由持續的毛利率擴張以及銷售、管理和行政費用槓桿推動。

We continue to expect capital expenditures in the range of 1.5% to 2% of net sales.

我們仍預期資本支出將佔淨銷售額的 1.5% 至 2%。

Taken together with our increasing adjusted EBITDA flow through, our collective efforts are expected to result in meaningful cash flow generation in 2024, with free cash flow conversion remaining above 80%.

加上我們不斷增加的調整後 EBITDA 流量，我們的集體努力預計將在 2024 年產生有意義的現金流，自由現金流轉換率保持在 80% 以上。

As you update your models for 2024, also keep in mind, we expect full-year 2024 share-based compensation expense, including related taxes, to be approximately $330 million and basic shares outstanding for the full year to be approximately $440 million.

當您更新 2024 年的模型時，請記住，我們預計 2024 年全年基於股份的補償費用（包括相關稅費）約為 3.3 億美元，全年已發行基本股約為 4.4 億美元。

Before we open the call to questions, I'd like to conclude by saying that the team continues to execute and innovate across our key strategic vectors, and we remain incredibly optimistic about Chewy's role in shaping the pet industry.

在我們開始提問之前，我想最後說，團隊將繼續在我們的關鍵策略領域執行和創新，我們對 Chewy 在塑造寵物行業中的作用仍然非常樂觀。

Strategic initiatives, such as Chewy Vet Care, are expected to, over time, unlock both top and bottom-line benefits as well as broader cross-selling opportunities throughout the Chewy ecosystem.

隨著時間的推移，Chewy Vet Care 等策略性舉措預計將釋放頂線和底線效益，以及整個 Chewy 生態系統更廣泛的交叉銷售機會。

Our operating discipline and many efforts across margin-accretive verticals are producing attractive and increasing levels of profit flow through, expanding margins, free cash flow, and ultimately positioning us to deliver increasingly attractive returns for our shareholders.

我們的經營紀律和在利潤成長垂直領域的許多努力正在產生有吸引力且不斷增加的利潤流水平，擴大利潤和自由現金流，並最終使我們能夠為股東提供越來越有吸引力的回報。

With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for questions.

這樣，我會將電話轉給接線生詢問問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Anmuth, JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）Doug Anmuth，摩根大通。

Thanks so much for taking the questions.

非常感謝您提出問題。

I have two.

我有兩個。

First, Sumit and David, can you just talk about the '24 revenue growth, obviously starting with 2% outlook in 1Q?

首先，Sumit 和 David，您能否談談 24 年的營收成長，顯然從第一季 2% 的前景開始？

But perhaps you can talk about what drives the confidence and acceleration as you go through the course of the year and if there's anything else you can add just around the cadence in terms of the quarters going forward.

但也許您可以談談在這一年中推動信心和加速的因素，以及您是否可以在未來幾季的節奏中添加任何其他內容。

And then on active customers, I know you're talking about flat for '24.

然後，關於活躍客戶，我知道您正在談論 24 年的公寓。

Can you give us any insights into the dynamics between gross adds and what happened with churn or attrition on existing customers?

您能否向我們介紹總增加額與現有客戶流失或流失之間的動態關係？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So hi, Doug.

嗨，道格。

It's a pleasure to meet you virtually.

很高興透過虛擬方式認識您。

Look forward to meeting you in person as we work through the coming quarters.

期待在我們未來幾季的工作中與您見面。

With respect to the growth for the year, I think, as Sumit outlined in his portion of the script, we're expecting an environment where pricing is relatively flat.

關於今年的成長，我認為，正如蘇米特在劇本中概述的那樣，我們預計價格相對平穩的環境。

And so most of the growth will be of volume as we progress through 2024.

因此，隨著 2024 年的進展，大部分成長將是數量成長。

That's certainly the trend that we kind of saw in the fourth quarter and we're extrapolating and extending that trend into 2024, given that we're not expecting a lot of inflation.

這肯定是我們在第四季度看到的趨勢，考慮到我們預計通膨不會很高，我們正在推斷這一趨勢並將其延續到 2024 年。

With respect to first quarter versus the remaining three quarters as we progress throughout the year, first quarter, we've guided to 2% year-over-year growth.

就第一季與其餘三個季度而言，隨著我們全年的進展，第一季我們的目標是年增 2%。

And so we feel pretty good about that number as we roll into this first quarter.

因此，當我們進入第一季時，我們對這個數字感到非常滿意。

For the remainder of the year, we've got the benefit in the fourth quarter of the extra week.

在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們在額外一週的第四季獲得了收益。

If you do the math on that, we're -- given the high percentage of recurring business that we have through Autoship as well as consumables, you would do the math on that and get it about 2% growth for the year from that particular extra week, about $220 million.

如果你計算一下，我們——考慮到我們透過自動發貨和消耗品獲得的經常性業務的比例很高，你可以計算一下，並從該特定的數據中得到今年大約 2% 的增長額外一周，約2.2 億美元。

So the second half of the year, we do believe we'll have not only seasonality, as we typically do, but also the benefit of the extra week.

因此，今年下半年，我們確實相信，我們不僅會像通常那樣受到季節性影響，而且還會受益於額外一周的好處。

Sumit, anything that you would add to that?

蘇米特，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

On customers, the situation is quite similar, actually.

實際上，對於客戶來說，情況非常相似。

So when you look at the discretionary environment, it's essentially holding back on our side.

因此，當你觀察自由裁量權環境時，你會發現它本質上阻礙了我們。

It's impacting roughly 300,000 to 400,000 active ads.

它影響了大約 30 萬到 40 萬個活躍廣告。

I've not sized that for you directly.

我沒有直接為你確定尺寸。

I figured we'd come out and size that for you, so you get a sense for how much of this being held back.

我想我們會為您確定尺寸，以便您了解其中有多少被封鎖。

Our cohorts coming out of the pandemic have fully stabilized.

我們走出大流行的群體已經完全穩定下來。

So we're not seeing any kind of further deterioration in cohort behavior. 2022 cohorts continue to settle out.

因此，我們沒有看到群體行為有任何進一步惡化。 2022 年的學生繼續定居。

And we're continuing to see low single-digit, higher, churn from them, just like we did from the pandemic cohorts.

我們繼續看到他們的流失率較低，個位數較高，就像我們在大流行群體中所做的那樣。

Our reactivation rate remains impressively high, actually.

事實上，我們的重新激活率仍然非常高。

So we've improved reactivations from a year-ago point of view.

因此，與一年前相比，我們改進了重新激活。

And we will add roughly 15% more reactivated customers this year than we did last year.

今年我們將比去年增加約 15% 的重新激活客戶。

So on the balance, I think we're getting into the year with a little bit of wait-and-watch approach.

因此，總的來說，我認為我們在進入這一年時會採取一些等待和觀望的態度。

We are not expecting our goods category or the discretionary to improve materially.

我們預期我們的商品類別或可自由支配的商品不會有實質改善。

So we're holding that into our forecast.

所以我們將其納入我們的預測中。

And then as of right now, we're not expecting the Canadian business to contribute meaningfully in 2024, as the script outlined.

然後，截至目前，我們預計加拿大企業不會像腳本中概述的那樣在 2024 年做出有意義的貢獻。

In addition to that, I think two more points I would add is that all of our premium businesses, whether it's premium consumables, premium health, supplements, et cetera, acquisition remains strong and custom participation remains strong as well as participation into Autoship sign-up rates are actually also pretty healthy.

除此之外，我想我還要補充兩點，那就是我們所有的高端業務，無論是高端消耗品、高端健康、補充劑等等，收購仍然強勁，定制參與仍然強勁，以及參與Autoship 簽約— —上漲率其實也相當健康。

So hopefully, that gives you some color on customer cohort analysis.

希望這能讓您對客戶群分析有所了解。

Good.

好的。

Thank you, both.

謝謝你們倆。

Appreciate that.

感謝。

Sure.

當然。

Mark Mahaney, Evercore ISI.

馬克·馬哈尼，Evercore ISI。

Hey.

嘿。

I just wanted to ask about the advertising revenue opportunities, and I know you talked about what you've seen so far, and outlook seems relatively constructive for the year.

我只是想問廣告收入機會，我知道你談到了到目前為止所看到的情況，今年的前景似乎相對有建設性。

Can you peel that back a little bit more?

你能把它再剝一點嗎？

And where do you think you are on ad load versus where you could be?

您認為您的廣告負載狀況與您可能達到的情況相比如何？

Where do you think you are in terms of endemic and non-endemic advertising in terms of where you could be and any clear lessons that you've drawn so far that make you reasonably confident about the outlook for the year?

您認為在流行性和非流行性廣告方面您處於什麼位置，以及您迄今為止所吸取的任何明確的教訓使您對今年的前景充滿信心？

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Hey, Mark.

嘿，馬克。

This is Sumit.

這是蘇米特。

I'll take that one.

我會接受那個。

So overall, coming out of last year, we fully ramped into search product.

總的來說，從去年開始，我們全面進軍搜尋產品。

We have recently launched branded product and we are currently ramping up the on-site portion of the ad revenue.

我們最近推出了品牌產品，目前正在增加廣告收入的現場部分。

We have the off-site portion of the ad revenue that starts ramping up towards the back half of this year.

我們的廣告收入中的站外部分將在今年下半年開始增加。

And so what you'll see is essentially the ad load is split between 70% on the on-site, 30% on the off-site.

因此，您將看到基本上廣告負載分佈在 70% 的站內廣告和 30% 的場外廣告負載之間。

And the blended margin flow-through is obviously pretty high.

混合利潤流量顯然相當高。

That's particular to the bottom line here, but more so on the on-site and less on the off-site.

這對於這裡的底線來說是特別重要的，但在現場更多，在場外更少。

And then supply participation rates are pretty healthy.

而且供應參與率相當健康。

ROS is pretty healthy as well.

ROS 也非常健康。

We're continuing to comp on an LTV basis, not on a per-transaction basis, which is appreciated given power of the Autoship and the business itself or the recurring and repeat revenue.

我們將繼續以 LTV 為基礎進行比較，而不是以每筆交易為基礎，考慮到 Autoship 和業務本身的力量或經常性和重複收入，這一點是值得讚賞的。

So as you would expect, we're leading with consumables followed by hard goods and health.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們在消費品方面處於領先地位，其次是耐用品和健康產品。

We have to be a little more careful, making sure that we are completely respecting regulatory constraints there per se.

我們必須更加小心，確保我們完全遵守監管限製本身。

What else can I tell you about the ad business?

關於廣告業務我還能告訴你什麼嗎？

Overall, we're pleased with the with the progress, response are all good.

總的來說，我們對進展感到滿意，反應都很好。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Sumit.

謝謝你，蘇米特。

Sure.

當然。

Dylan Carden, William Blair.

迪倫卡登，威廉布萊爾。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Sumit, that kind of cohort analysis on the churn side, I wonder if you could kind of speak to it on the NSPAC side.

Sumit，關於流失的同類群組分析，我想知道您是否可以在 NSPAC 方面談論它。

And I guess the broad question would be how relevant some of your historic cohort spending metrics are and just whether or not there's any impact from higher levels of Autoship if those customers kind of said it and forget it and don't yield up in the same fashion because they don't visit the site with the same frequency.

我想，最廣泛的問題是，您的一些歷史隊列支出指標的相關性如何，以及如果這些客戶說了又忘記，並且沒有以同樣的方式屈服，那麼更高水平的自動發貨是否會產生任何影響時尚，因為他們造訪網站的頻率不同。

Any detail there would be helpful.

任何細節都會有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So the NSPAC side of the house will be continued to be driven by both the health as well as participation and Autoship.

因此，NSPAC 方面將繼續受到健康狀況、參與度和 Autoship 的推動。

Those were the two primary drivers of NSPAC expansion that we see in '24.

這是我們在 24 年看到的 NSPAC 擴張的兩個主要驅動力。

And the -- so those are the pluses.

這些都是優點。

The minuses are obviously you don't get the pricing benefit in NSPAC that you saw last year.

缺點顯然是你無法獲得去年在 NSPAC 中看到的定價優勢。

So if you average out NSPAC benefit over the last four years, we essentially have 80% of the NSPAC growth that came since the time of the IPO in 2019 on the back of organic work that the team has done like improvement in Autoship, improvement in health, launch of pharmacy, growth in the supplements business, et cetera, et cetera.

因此，如果你平均計算過去四年 NSPAC 的收益，我們基本上可以看到自 2019 年 IPO 以來 NSPAC 增長的 80% 是在團隊所做的有機工作的支持下實現的，例如 Autoship 的改進、健康、藥品上市、補充劑業務的成長等等。

And 20% or less has come from inflation.

20%或更少來自通貨膨脹。

But if you look at last year, the weight on inflation was higher as NSPAC kind of grew.

但如果你看看去年，隨著 NSPAC 的成長，通膨的壓力更大。

So this year, we're not expecting this year as in '24.

所以今年，我們預計今年不會像 24 年那樣。

We're not expecting the impact of pricing or inflation in this.

我們預計不會受到定價或通膨的影響。

And so, NSPAC is going to grow on the back of pure Autoship and health.

因此，NSPAC 將在純粹的 Autoship 和健康的支持下發展。

On the health side if you look at cohort analyses, we're likely going to add north of 1 million customers to pharmacy, and that has a direct expansion of NSPAC in addition to the usual subscription rate growth that we will drive towards in the Autoship business.

在健康方面，如果您查看隊列分析，我們可能會增加 100 萬以上的藥房客戶，除了我們將在 Autoship 中推動的通常訂閱率增長之外，NSPAC 還會直接擴展商業。

So those two will be a combination.

所以這兩者將是一個組合。

We just don't get any pricing benefit this year.

今年我們沒有獲得任何定價優勢。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Anna Andreeva, Needham and Company.

安娜·安德烈娃，李約瑟公司。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much for taking our questions.

非常感謝您回答我們的問題。

We have two.

我們有兩個。

On the adjusted EBITDA, I think the guide implies a slightly less than the 16% incremental margins you guys outlined during the Analyst Day, and you mentioned the guide that implies some OpEx leverage.

關於調整後的 EBITDA，我認為該指南暗示的增量利潤率略低於你們在分析師日期間概述的 16%，並且您提到了該指南暗示了一些營運支出槓桿。

So should we expect more muted gross margin gains for the year?

那麼，我們是否應該預期今年的毛利率成長會更加緩慢？

Just any color there would be super helpful.

任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

And then secondly, CapEx, as you mentioned, came in a little lower than the guide for '23.

其次，正如您所提到的，資本支出略低於 23 年的指引值。

Should we expect it to stay at similar 1.3% of sales or below for '24?

我們是否應該期望它在 24 年保持在銷售額的 1.3% 或更低？

Any thoughts on initiating a buyback just given this ramping free cash flow generation.

鑑於自由現金流的產生不斷增加，有任何關於啟動回購的想法嗎？

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Sure.

當然。

Hi, Anna.

嗨，安娜。

Let me take that one and let me speak a little bit more broadly, perhaps, and philosophically, about profitability first.

讓我先從更廣的角度（或許從哲學角度）談談獲利能力。

We outlined at Capital Markets Day our philosophy and our path to 10% EBITDA margin and the corresponding free cash flow that would, of course, come from that.

我們在資本市場日概述了我們的理念以及實現 10% EBITDA 利潤率以及由此產生的相應自由現金流的路徑。

And so when we think about profitability within 2024, we are expecting to get leverage not only on the gross margin line but also on the operating expense line as well.

因此，當我們考慮 2024 年的獲利能力時，我們預計不僅會在毛利率線上獲得槓桿作用，還會在營運費用線上獲得槓桿作用。

And specifically, within gross margin, let me call a few areas.

具體來說，在毛利率方面，讓我來談談幾個方面。

Given our infrastructure and the fact that it's reached critical mass, we're actually able to flow through incremental volume at a much higher accretive rate for the company.

考慮到我們的基礎設施以及它已達到臨界質量的事實，我們實際上能夠以更高的成長率為公司提供增量流量。

So as we get more volume, given the infrastructure we've built out, we have moderated CapEx on a go-forward basis, the fall through is higher for that incremental volume.

因此，隨著我們獲得更多的數量，考慮到我們已經建立的基礎設施，我們在未來的基礎上調整了資本支出，增量數量的下降會更高。

Fixed cost absorption, if you will.

如果你願意的話，固定成本吸收。

In addition to that, we also have product mix.

除此之外，我們還有產品組合。

So we're mixing up from a product perspective as we continue to grow into health care, into pharmacy.

因此，隨著我們繼續向醫療保健和製藥領域發展，我們從產品的角度來看正在混合。

That also averages up or accretes up our gross margin.

這也平均或增加了我們的毛利率。

And then finally, within the gross margin line, we also have sponsored ads we've already spoken about a little bit.

最後，在毛利率範圍內，我們還有我們已經討論過的搜尋廣告。

We expect sponsored ads -- we ramp those in the fourth quarter.

我們預計搜尋廣告 - 我們會在第四季度增加這些廣告。

We expect to continue to grow those quarter to quarter to quarter sequentially throughout 2024.

我們預計到 2024 年這些數字將繼續逐季成長。

So that's the accretion we expect to occur on the gross margin line.

這就是我們預期毛利率會出現的成長。

With respect to OpEx, we are making some investments on the OpEx side.

關於OpEx，我們正在OpEx方面進行一些投資。

We expect our core OpEx to continue to scale up.

我們預計我們的核心營運支出將繼續擴大。

And then of course, we're thoughtfully entering Canada as we expand into Toronto.

當然，當我們擴展到多倫多時，我們正在深思熟慮地進入加拿大。

And of course, we're also investing in our long-term initiatives around vet care.

當然，我們也在投資獸醫護理的長期計劃。

And so the rate and pace of those investments will be thoughtfully managed as we proceed throughout the year.

因此，隨著我們全年的進展，這些投資的速度和節奏將得到深思熟慮的管理。

But we're expecting to get benefits and profitability from both gross margin as well as OpEx.

但我們期望從毛利率和營運支出中獲得收益和獲利能力。

On the CapEx side of the house, we've guided long term a 1.5 to 2 points of net sales.

在資本支出方面，我們長期指導淨銷售額成長 1.5 到 2 個百分點。

You're correct last year in '23, we were slightly below that.

去年你是對的，23 年我們的表現略低於這個水準。

I think a good midpoint would be take the midpoint of that guidance between 1.5% and 2% and think about the midpoint of the guidance we've given you on the top line.

我認為一個好的中點應該是該指導的中點在 1.5% 到 2% 之間，並考慮我們在頂線上給您的指導的中點。

That will put you on a good spot from a capital expenditures perspective.

從資本支出的角度來看，這將使您處於有利地位。

We do expect to generate meaningful free cash flow as we mentioned in our script.

正如我們在腳本中提到的那樣，我們確實希望產生有意義的自由現金流。

All right.

好的。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Best of luck.

祝你好運。

Thank you, Anna.

謝謝你，安娜。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steven Zaccone, Citigroup.

史蒂文‧扎科內，花旗集團。

Great.

偉大的。

Good afternoon and thanks for taking my question.

下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。

And Dave, congrats on the new role.

戴夫，祝賀你擔任新角色。

Sumit, I wanted to ask about the broader pet industry.

Sumit，我想問更廣泛的寵物行業。

We've heard about some higher promotional activity and then some trade down activity turns in the pet food space.

我們聽說寵物食品領域出現了一些較高的促銷活動，然後又出現了一些降價活動。

What are you seeing in your business?

您在自己的企業中看到了什麼？

And I guess as you think through the year, do you think we're in the worst of it now or could the space get a little bit more competitive as we get into the back half?

我想，當你回顧這一年時，你認為我們現在正處於最糟糕的時期，還是當我們進入後半區時，空間的競爭會變得更加激烈？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

There's a lot of that question.

有很多這樣的問題。

Hey, Steve, let me unpack it.

嘿，史蒂夫，讓我打開它。

So let's start with promotional environment.

那我們就從促銷環境開始吧。

The Q4 promo environment was rational and in line with our expectations.

第四季促銷環境理性，符合我們的預期。

It was modestly higher than 2023, but we've been signaling that all the way through 2023.

它略高於 2023 年，但我們一直在 2023 年發出這樣的訊號。

And so, '21 and -- Q1 and Q2 didn't -- hadn't picked up, and Q4, we did see the 30 to 50 basis point incrementality and promotion pickup that we were forecasting throughout the year.

因此，21 年第一季和第二季沒有出現回升，而第四季度，我們確實看到了我們全年預測的 30 到 50 個基點的增量和促銷回升。

Obviously, we were able to absorb it, given that we were planning for it.

顯然，考慮到我們正在計劃它，我們能夠吸收它。

So the good part -- the silver lining here is that we've return to normality from a promotion standpoint, in our opinion, from pre-pandemic, post-pandemic world, right.

因此，好的部分 - 這裡的一線希望是，從促銷的角度來看，我們已經恢復了正常狀態，我們認為，從大流行前和大流行後的世界來看，對吧。

Post-pandemic, we -- through the pandemic, we got this benefit of float as a result of can -- either supply pullbacks or just general normal demand generation.

大流行後，我們——透過大流行，我們得到了浮動的好處，因為可以——供應回調或只是一般正常的需求產生。

So all of that has normalized.

所以這一切都已經正常化。

We don't expect promotional environment to remain more volatile or to become more volatile as we move through 2024.

我們預計，隨著 2024 年的到來，促銷環境不會繼續更加不穩定或變得更加不穩定。

That's the assumption that we're baking in that.

這就是我們正在烘焙的假設。

Generally, when you look at the industry, so let me shift to industry trends.

一般來說，當你看這個行業時，讓我轉向行業趨勢。

So generally, when you look at the industry, if you take the $90 billion pet food and supplies category, over the past decade, unit growth has been driven by mostly supplies and treats.

因此，總的來說，當你觀察這個行業時，如果你考慮價值 900 億美元的寵物食品和用品類別，在過去的十年中，單位增長主要是由用品和零食推動的。

So that's all discretionary.

所以這都是酌情決定的。

And pricing growth has been driven by premiumization trends, right.

定價成長是由高端化趨勢推動的，對吧。

So when you put that in context in today's macro, it helps you understand why the industry is expecting modest unit growth in '24 and limited pricing benefit, given that we're coming out of the inflationary environment getting into '24.

因此，當您將這一點放在當今的宏觀背景下時，它可以幫助您理解為什麼該行業預計 24 年銷量將溫和增長，且定價優勢有限，因為我們即將擺脫進入 24 年的通膨環境。

And there's no premiumization trends that continuous and more of a mainstream focus as we move towards the '24 year.

隨著我們邁向“24 年”，高端化趨勢不再持續且成為主流焦點。

And then meanwhile, when you take the $20 billion remaining -- that health merchandising category, right, we will continue to remain clear winners there.

同時，當你考慮剩下的 200 億美元——健康商品類別，對吧，我們將繼續保持明顯的贏家地位。

And it can continue to expect to grow both volume and translating into netback expansion, coupled with the Autoship trends that we've talked about.

加上我們已經討論過的自動出貨趨勢，它可以繼續預期銷售成長並轉化為淨利擴張。

So that's general industry.

這就是一般工業。

When you look at -- when you further prepared that down into inputs and you look at adoption data, so pet adoptions were down 30% year over year coming out of Q4.

當你進一步準備好這些資訊並查看收養數據時，你會發現第四季度寵物收養量比去年同期下降了 30%。

Search for new pet and new pet interest was down 16% coming out of the year.

今年以來，新寵物的搜尋量和新寵物的興趣下降了 16%。

And that has further degraded by somewhere around 6% to 8% year over year rate.

而且這一數字比去年同期進一步下降了 6% 至 8% 左右。

So coming into the year, trends haven't picked up yet.

因此，進入今年，趨勢尚未回升。

And of course, there's a lot more year to play.

當然，還有很多年可以玩。

We continue to be a little bit protected or insured, given that 85% of the business is coming from consumables and health, both categories where we continue to gain share, meaningfully so in healthcare and reasonably so in consumables, with hard goods as the lagging category.

鑑於85% 的業務來自消費品和健康產品，我們繼續獲得一點保護或保險，在這兩個類別中，我們繼續獲得份額，尤其是在醫療保健領域，在消費品領域也是如此，而耐用品則處於落後地位類別。

So that's how I would characterize that.

這就是我的描述。

Happy to take a follow-up if I left anything out.

如果我遺漏了什麼，我很樂意跟進。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Nathan Feather, Morgan Stanley.

內森費瑟，摩根士丹利。

Thanks for taking my question, everyone.

謝謝大家提出我的問題。

So thinking about the 50 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion guided to for the year, can you help us walk through the key drivers to get there and what could really drive upside for that?

因此，考慮今年指導的 EBITDA 利潤率擴張 50 個基點，您能否幫助我們了解實現這一目標的關鍵驅動因素以及真正能夠推動這一目標的因素是什麼？

And then anything you can share on how much international expansion is weighing on margins?

那麼可以分享一下國際擴張對利潤率造成的影響有多大嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Let me start with the EBITDA expansion of 50 bps that we guided.

讓我從我們指導的 EBITDA 擴張 50 個基點開始。

Look, it's really when you think about the growth there, let's talk about the gross margin line first.

你看，確實是當你考慮那裡的成長時，我們先談談毛利率線。

It's really the three items that I mentioned before.

確實就是我之前提到的三項。

We've got the opportunity given our fixed infrastructure to get some fixed cost absorption out of the model.

鑑於我們的固定基礎設施，我們有機會從模型中吸收一些固定成本。

So if volume grows faster than we expect throughout the course of the year, then that's going to be a benefit to us.

因此，如果全年銷售成長速度快於我們的預期，那麼這將對我們有利。

It's going to flow through at a higher rate given that we don't have to correspondingly make the same level of investments to ship that incremental volume.

鑑於我們不必相應地進行相同水準的投資來運送增量，它將以更高的速度流通。

And so, we're going to get some nice, fixed cost absorption to the extent that volume picks up throughout the year.

因此，我們將獲得一些不錯的、固定的成本吸收，以達到全年銷售增加的程度。

In addition to that, we have been product mixing up the business.

除此之外，我們也混淆了業務的產品。

As we expand into health care, into pharmacy, into services, all of those are accretive to us from a corporate margin perspective.

隨著我們擴展到醫療保健、製藥、服務領域，從企業利潤的角度來看，這一切都對我們有利。

And so as those become a larger part of our business over time, which they have, then that margin will fall all the way through the P&L to the bottom line.

因此，隨著時間的推移，這些業務將成為我們業務的重要組成部分，而利潤率將透過損益表一路下降到淨利潤。

And then, of course, the final piece that we've spoken about a little bit here and that's sponsored ads.

當然，我們在這裡談到的最後一點是搜尋廣告。

We really ramped that up in a bit more meaningful way in the fourth quarter of '23.

我們確實在 23 年第四季以更有意義的方式提高了這一水平。

And as I mentioned, we expect sponsored ads to grow throughout 2024, Q1 to Q2 to Q3 into Q4.

正如我所提到的，我們預計搜尋廣告將在 2024 年全年（第一季、第二季、第三季和第四季）成長。

So that's an area of growth for us that is accretive as well.

因此，這對我們來說也是一個增值的成長領域。

On the OpEx side, I'll just reiterate that, the rate and pace of those investments will be the rate and pace at which the business needs those investments to be made.

在營運支出方面，我只是重申，這些投資的速度和節奏將是企業需要進行這些投資的速度和節奏。

So we have committed to profitable growth at Capital Markets Day.

因此，我們在資本市場日致力於獲利成長。

We do believe that we are going to deliver that profitable growth, but we also want to continue to invest for the future.

我們確實相信我們將實現獲利成長，但我們也希望繼續為未來投資。

And so, we feel like this business plan that we've outlined for you today for the full-year irrespective of the macro environment, it is a plan to continue to take share.

因此，我們認為，無論宏觀環境如何，我們今天為您概述的全年業務計劃都是一個繼續搶佔份額的計劃。

And then, of course, it's also a plan to deliver profitable growth and meaningful free cash flow, I would add.

當然，我想補充一下，這也是一個實現獲利成長和有意義的自由現金流的計劃。

Alex Steiger, Goldman Sachs.

亞歷克斯·施泰格，高盛。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First one, on competition.

第一個，關於競爭。

So how would you characterize the competitive landscape as we enter 2024 and what gives you the confidence in continuing to gain market share this year?

那麼，進入 2024 年，您如何描述競爭格局？是什麼讓您有信心在今年繼續獲得市場份額？

And then, one follow-up on the Q4 EBITDA outperformance.

然後是第四季 EBITDA 優異表現的後續行動。

So can you maybe just help us understand the contribution from the various initiatives you have laid out versus some of the efficiencies you're seeing on automation and/or OpEx discipline?

那麼，您能否幫助我們了解您所製定的各種計劃的貢獻以及您在自動化和/或營運支出方面看到的一些效率？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

I'll take the first one, this is Sumit.

我選第一個，這是蘇米特。

So in terms of competitive intensity, it's not elevated from our point of view.

因此，就競爭強度而言，從我們的角度來看，它並沒有提高。

Promotional intensity was obviously higher coming out of Q4.

從第四季開始，促銷力道明顯加大。

Ad intensity and ad competition remains high.

廣告強度和廣告競爭仍然很高。

If you look at CPCs, CPCs were up roughly 14% to 16% in Q4, but they were met with demand given that supplies had recovered in Q4 of this year.

如果你看看 CPC，第四季的 CPC 大約上漲了 14% 到 16%，但考慮到今年第四季供應已經恢復，它們滿足了需求。

So we were anticipating higher CPCs given bidding intensity was higher coming into the holiday season.

因此，鑑於假日季節的出價強度較高，我們預計每次點擊費用會更高。

That has pared back some as we've come into Q1.

當我們進入第一季時，這已經減少了一些。

Some part of that is naturally expecting, some part of that is when you look at across the industry, we believe three, there's -- at least from what we can tell, there's three companies that are taking share.

其中一部分是自然而然的預期，一部分是當你縱觀整個產業時，我們相信有三家公司——至少從我們所知，有三家公司正在搶佔份額。

Chewy is clearly gaining share in the market.

Chewy 顯然正在擴大市場份額。

Walmart and Amazon are the next two competitors.

沃爾瑪和亞馬遜是接下來的兩個競爭對手。

From a -- but each of the portfolio has different strengths, in my opinion, with someone like Chewy being able to span the entire gamut here.

但在我看來，每個產品組合都有不同的優勢，像 Chewy 這樣的人能夠跨越整個領域。

So what I mean by that is our performance I mean our performance continues to be supported by non-discretionary categories which make up 85% of our sales.

所以我的意思是我們的業績，我的意思是我們的業績繼續受到非全權委託品類的支持，這些品類占我們銷售額的 85%。

And so we excel in many pockets in that 85%.

因此，我們在這 85% 的領域中表現出色。

In the current environment, some of the other companies that I'm mentioning have been likely primarily winners in the discretionary categories where we are not winning.

在當前環境下，我提到的其他一些公司可能主要是我們沒有獲勝的可自由支配類別的贏家。

So that lower mix of hard goods is both a strengthen an opportunity to Chewy given that it shields us from the discretionary impact that you've seen, announced in some other places.

因此，較低的硬商品組合對 Chewy 來說既是一個增強機會，也是一個機會，因為它可以保護我們免受您在其他一些地方宣布的隨意影響。

And then, Walmart has unsurprisingly shined in the value segment amidst the current macro backdrop, including outside successes that have been seen in areas like private label, where as we were candid in the Investor Day presentation, we do not have like-for-like assortment, but it's part of our strategic plan to come out and provide strategic like-for-like assortment there.

然後，在當前的宏觀背景下，沃爾瑪在價值領域表現出色，包括在自有品牌等領域取得的外部成功，正如我們在投資者日演講中坦言的那樣，我們沒有類似的成功品類，但這是我們戰略計劃的一部分，即在那裡提供戰略性的同類品類。

So if you summarize it, what is important to I think note is we believe Chewy remains differentiated from both these players or the industry generally through our comprehensive offering that we provide to the pet parent, the type of relationships and the loyalties that we build, the quasi-subscription business and the strength of that ecosystem, the pet health ecosystem which is first-party proprietary that extends both through product and services across our retail offerings. all of it positions us well to compete in 2024.

因此，如果你總結一下，我認為值得注意的是，我們相信 Chewy 透過我們向寵物父母提供的全面產品、我們建立的關係類型和忠誠度，仍然與這些參與者或整個行業有所不同，準訂閱業務和該生態系統的實力，寵物健康生態系統是第一方專有的，透過我們零售產品的產品和服務延伸。所有這些都使我們能夠在 2024 年的競爭中處於有利地位。

Alongside that, we've made several investments in future categories which are both top line growth and margin expanding categories.

除此之外，我們也對未來的類別進行了多項投資，這些類別既是收入成長的類別，也是利潤擴張的類別。

So we feel bullish about our ability to compete through '24 as well as accelerating pace as we come out of ‘24 into ‘25 and ‘26.

因此，我們對自己在 24 年的競爭能力以及從 24 月進入 25 月和 26 月加快步伐的能力感到樂觀。

Thank you, Sumit.

謝謝你，蘇米特。

Let me address the EBITDA question that was posed.

讓我回答一下提出的 EBITDA 問題。

Let me speak a little bit more broadly about the year first.

首先讓我更廣泛地談談這一年。

When you compare 2023 versus 2022, we did expand gross margin by roughly 40 bps on a year-over-year basis.

當你比較 2023 年和 2022 年時，我們的毛利率確實比去年同期成長了約 40 個基點。

And so, when you look at how that flowed through from an EBITDA perspective, I think what you saw us do, what you saw us execute in 2023 was you saw us execute with long-term investments in the business, but still return a good portion of the gross margin expansion to the bottom line and the EBITDA margin line.

因此，當您從EBITDA 的角度來看這一過程時，我認為您看到我們所做的事情，您看到我們在2023 年執行的事情是您看到我們對業務進行了長期投資，但仍然獲得了良好的回報毛利率擴張至淨利潤和 EBITDA 利潤線的部分。

And so we were quite pleased by our ability to take gross margin as it expanded and then push it all the way through the P&L to the EBITDA margin line on a year-over-year basis.

因此，我們對能夠在毛利率擴張時將其逐年推至損益表至 EBITDA 利潤線的能力感到非常滿意。

With respect to fourth quarter, we did grow gross margin slightly on a year-over-year basis in fourth quarter by 10 bps.

就第四季而言，我們第四季的毛利率確實比去年同期小幅增加了 10 個基點。

We did have some timing issues with respect to expenses.

我們確實在費用方面遇到了一些時間安排問題。

And so on a year-over-year basis, adjusted EBITDA did decrease from 3.4% to 3.1%.

因此，與去年同期相比，調整後 EBITDA 確實從 3.4% 下降至 3.1%。

I would characterize again many of those as the investments that we were making throughout the year to be able to support both our international expansion as well as Chewy Vet Care as the primary reason for that.

我想再次將其中許多投資描述為我們全年進行的投資，以便能夠支持我們的國際擴張以及耐嚼獸醫護理，這是主要原因。

But again, for the full year quite pleased with our ability to deliver profitable growth.

但同樣，我們對全年實現獲利成長的能力感到非常滿意。

I would just add that when we started the year, we carved out a bunch of growth initiatives that we were impact, that we'd sized for you.

我想補充一點，當我們年初時，我們制定了一系列我們影響的成長計劃，我們為您確定了這些計劃的規模。

And as we move through the year, we increasingly found the ability to self-fund a lot of these initiatives ending the year strong.

隨著這一年的過去，我們越來越發現，在年底的許多此類舉措中，自籌資金的能力都很強。

And as you've seen us provide guidance for 2024, we continue to invest in growth initiatives for the future and are self-funding a bunch of that alongside the EBITDA expansion that we're providing you.

正如您所看到的，我們為 2024 年提供了指導，我們將繼續投資於未來的成長計劃，並在我們為您提供的 EBITDA 擴張的同時，自籌大量資金。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Rupesh Parikh, Oppenheimer.

魯佩什·帕里克，奧本海默。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

So a question for Dave.

這是戴夫的一個問題。

So you've obviously been there a few weeks now, so it's still early, but just curious if you see any new opportunities in the business?

所以你顯然已經在那裡待了幾週了，所以現在還為時過早，但只是好奇你是否看到了這個行業的任何新機會？

Thanks for the question, Rupesh, and look forward to meeting you all in person.

感謝魯佩什提出的問題，並期待與大家見面。

This is my fifth week at Chewy and I think one of the things that I am most pleased to report is that the business performance trajectory, the opportunity set, all of the things that went into my diligence thesis when I was joining Chewy, all of it seems very much in-line with what my expectations were.

這是我在 Chewy 的第五週，我認為我最高興報告的一件事是業務績效軌跡、機會集、我加入 Chewy 時進入我的盡職論文的所有內容，所有這些這似乎非常符合我的期望。

And specifically, the consistency, predictability, the repeatability of the revenue stream was high on my list of items to test as build with Autoship and consumables.

具體來說，收入流的一致性、可預測性和可重複性在我使用 Autoship 和耗材進行建置測試的專案清單中名列前茅。

The infrastructure is world class.

基礎設施是世界一流的。

The build out of our infrastructure and the critical mass that we have there, and our ability to ship some significant incremental volume through the same footprint as that volume becomes available for us to tap in the industry, I do believe we're going to get not only moderating CapEx but increasing free cash flow.

我們的基礎設施建設和我們在那裡擁有的臨界質量，以及我們透過與我們在行業中可用的體積相同的足跡運送一些顯著增量體積的能力，我確實相信我們將會獲得不僅可以調節資本支出，還可以增加自由現金流。

The margin opportunities as we mix up the business from healthcare are meaningful.

當我們混合醫療保健業務時，利潤機會是有意義的。

And then finally, when you think a little bit longer term, some of the opportunities that we have to penetrate direct vet care, expand international, add incremental services, I think all those thesis that I had about the business, about Chewy, as well as of course the loved brand all of those things are as built and I'm incredibly excited to be here.

最後，當你從更長遠的角度思考時，我們必須滲透直接獸醫護理、拓展國際業務、增加增量服務的一些機會，我認為我關於業務、關於 Chewy 的所有這些論文也是如此。當然，作為深受喜愛的品牌，所有這些東西都是如此，我非常高興來到這裡。

Did you have a follow-up, Rupesh?

魯佩什，你有後續嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

And I guess just my follow-up question.

我想這只是我的後續問題。

So it sounds like this year, a household formation is likely going to be weak.

所以聽起來今年的家庭組成可能會很弱。

So if you guys think about a return to positive net active customer growth, is that essentially you just need a better macro and a return to stronger pet household formation?

因此，如果你們考慮恢復正的淨活躍客戶成長，那麼本質上你們是否只需要一個更好的宏觀政策並恢復更強大的寵物家庭形成？

Is that the key ingredient at this point?

這是目前的關鍵要素嗎？

That is definitely one of them, but that's not the only one.

這絕對是其中之一，但不是唯一的。

I mean, we continue to pick up customers at a pretty healthy clip.

我的意思是，我們繼續以相當健康的速度吸引客戶。

All of the other categories that we're performing within continue to resonate loudly.

我們正在執行的所有其他類別繼續引起強烈共鳴。

In pharmacy, I mentioned north of a million customers migrating over, which is obviously not showing up in the active customer file, but you show that in the NSPAC number and the amplifying revenue growth number.

在藥房，我提到了超過一百萬的客戶遷移，這顯然沒有出現在活躍客戶檔案中，但你在 NSPAC 數字和放大的收入成長數字中顯示了這一點。

And then, all of the newer innovations that we're looking at, whether it's introduction of new marketing channels that we might be experimenting with at any given point or launching of new verticals such as services, these are all customer acquisition, bolt acquisition and retention type verticals.

然後，我們正在關注的所有新創新，無論是引入我們可能在任何給定點嘗試的新行銷管道，還是推出新的垂直行業（例如服務），這些都是客戶獲取、螺栓獲取和保留類型垂直。

So yes, there is the macro, but we're also focused on what is controllable on our side and making sure that no stone goes unturned per se.

所以，是的，有宏觀因素，但我們也專注於我們可控的事情，並確保不遺餘力。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q&A and today's Chewy fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings call.

女士們先生們，我們的問答和今天的 Chewy 第四季度和 2023 年全年收益電話會議到此結束。

We'd like to thank you for your participation.

我們衷心感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。