(CHWY) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

在線寵物零售商 Chewy 公佈第二季度業績,淨銷售額達 27.8 億美元,增長 14%。該公司的 Autoship 計劃強勁增長,佔總淨銷售額的 76%。

Chewy 計劃在第三季度進軍加拿大市場,並宣布計劃在今年晚些時候舉辦首個投資者日。

該公司預計第三季度淨銷售額將在 27.4 億美元至 27.6 億美元之間,並重申全年淨銷售額預期。 Chewy 對下半年的淨客戶增加持謹慎態度,但維持今年的指導。他們專注於改善客戶體驗並減少網站上的摩擦。

Chewy 很高興將其品牌擴展到加拿大,併計劃了解並滿足加拿大客戶的需求和願望。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's Chewy Second Quarter FY '23 Earnings Call. My name is Hannah, and I will be your moderator for today's call.

    下午好。感謝您參加今天耐嚼的 23 財年第二季度收益電話會議。我叫漢娜,我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Jen Hsu, Head of Investor Relations. You may go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給我們的東道主投資者關係主管 Jen Hsu。你可以繼續。

  • Jennifer Hsu

    Jennifer Hsu

  • Thank you for joining us on the today to discuss our second quarter 2023 results. Joining me are Chewy's CEO, Sumit Singh; and Interim CFO, Stacy Bowman.

    感謝您今天加入我們討論我們 2023 年第二季度的業績。和我一起的還有 Chewy 的首席執行官 Sumit Singh;和臨時首席財務官史黛西鮑曼。

  • Our earnings release and letter to shareholders, which were filed with the SEC earlier today, has been posted to the Investor Relations section of our website, investor.chewy.com.

    今天早些時候向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和致股東的信函已發佈到我們網站 Investor.chewy.com 的投資者關係部分。

  • On our call today, we will be making forward-looking statements, including statements concerning Chewy's future prospects, financial results, strategies and investments, industry trends and our ability to successfully respond to business risks. Such statements are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors described in the section titled Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K and other subsequent quarterly reports, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Reported results should not be considered an indication of future performance. Also note that the forward-looking statements on this call are based on information available to us as of today's date. We disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

    在今天的電話會議上,我們將做出前瞻性聲明,包括有關 Chewy 的未來前景、財務業績、戰略和投資、行業趨勢以及我們成功應對業務風險的能力的聲明。根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》,此類聲明被視為前瞻性聲明,並受到我們10-K 表格年度報告和其他後續季度報告中標題為“風險因素”部分所述的某些風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響,這可能導致實際結果與我們前瞻性陳述中預期的結果存在重大差異。報告的結果不應被視為未來業績的指標。另請注意,本次電話會議的前瞻性陳述基於截至今天為止我們掌握的信息。除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • Also during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided on our Investor Relations website and in our earnings release and letter to shareholders, which were filed with the SEC today. These non-GAAP measures are not intended as a substitute for GAAP results.

    此外,在本次電話會議中,我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的投資者關係網站以及今天向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和致股東的信中提供了這些非公認會計準則項目與最直接可比的公認會計準則財務指標的對賬。這些非公認會計準則衡量標準並不旨在替代公認會計準則結果。

  • Additionally, unless otherwise noted, results discussed today refer to the second quarter of 2023 and all comparisons are accordingly against the second quarter of 2022. Finally, this call in its entirety is being webcast on our investor relations website. A replay of this call will also be available on our Investor Relations website shortly.

    此外,除非另有說明,今天討論的結果指的是2023 年第二季度,所有比較均相應地與2022 年第二季度進行。最後,本次電話會議的全部內容正在我們的投資者關係網站上進行網絡直播。本次電話會議的重播也將很快在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Sumit.

    我現在想把電話轉給蘇米特。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Jen, and thank you all for joining us on the call today. Before we begin, I want to introduce Stacy Bowman, our Chief Accounting Officer. As previously announced, CFO, Mario Marte, retired on July 28, and Stacy is serving as our interim CFO while we continue to search for a permanent CFO. She is a respected leader who has been with Chewy for more than 8 years and is deeply familiar with our finance organization, systems and processes. Welcome, Stacy.

    謝謝 Jen,也感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。在開始之前,我想介紹一下我們的首席會計官 Stacy Bowman。正如之前宣布的,首席財務官 Mario Marte 已於 7 月 28 日退休,Stacy 擔任我們的臨時首席財務官,同時我們將繼續尋找永久首席財務官。她是一位受人尊敬的領導者,在 Chewy 工作了 8 年多,非常熟悉我們的財務組織、系統和流程。歡迎,史黛西。

  • Now let's begin. Our second quarter carried on the positive trends we saw in our Q1 results, delivering mid-teens growth exceeding guidance as well as robust profitability. In Q2, we reported $2.78 billion in net sales, up 14% and a 3% adjusted EBITDA margin. Consistent with our expectations, active customers were broadly flat on a sequential basis while net sales per active customer, or NSPAC, reached $530 reflecting a 15% increase.

    現在讓我們開始吧。我們的第二季度延續了我們在第一季度業績中看到的積極趨勢,實現了超過預期的中雙位數增長以及強勁的盈利能力。第二季度,我們的淨銷售額為 27.8 億美元,增長 14%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3%。與我們的預期一致,活躍客戶環比基本持平,而每個活躍客戶的淨銷售額 (NSPAC) 達到 530 美元,增長 15%。

  • Net sales growth was underpinned by strong participation from our customers underscoring the ever-increasing strength of the Chewy ecosystem. This momentum was evident across many of our focus areas, including Autoship, where sales continue to grow at a faster pace than our top line increasing their share of total net sales to 76% in the second quarter. Autoship remains a key differentiator of Chewy's business model, enabling high visibility and predictability driven by recurring revenue streams while engendering customer loyalty.

    淨銷售額的增長得益於客戶的大力參與,凸顯了 Chewy 生態系統不斷增強的實力。這種勢頭在我們的許多重點領域都很明顯,包括 Autoship,其銷售額的增長速度繼續快於我們的營收增長速度,第二季度佔總淨銷售額的份額達到 76%。 Autoship 仍然是 Chewy 業務模式的一個關鍵差異化因素,通過經常性收入流實現高可見性和可預測性,同時提高客戶忠誠度。

  • Additionally, we are also successfully driving discovery of our Chewy Health platform. For example, cross-category penetration into pharmacy now represents nearly 20% of our overall active customer base. Elsewhere across Chewy, our teams are continuously enhancing our CRM capability, improving targeting and supporting strong customer engagement.

    此外,我們還成功推動了 Chewy Health 平台的發現。例如,藥房的跨類別滲透現在占我們整體活躍客戶群的近 20%。在 Chewy 的其他地方,我們的團隊正在不斷增強我們的 CRM 能力,改進目標定位並支持強大的客戶參與。

  • Moving down the P&L. We delivered another quarter of robust profitability. Gross margin 28.3% was broadly in line with expectations. As anticipated, promotional activity in the second quarter was higher than in the first quarter. However, the promotional environment on the whole remains largely rational.

    損益表向下移動。我們又一個季度實現了強勁的盈利能力。毛利率28.3%基本符合預期。正如預期,第二季度的促銷活動高於第一季度。然而,促銷環境總體上仍然基本理性。

  • Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 3% for the quarter, benefiting from our strong gross margin trends and fulfillment cost agencies, offset by the impact of our exciting growth investments including our Canada expansion, which remains on track for a Q3 launch. As we indicated during our Q1 earnings call, we continue to utilize our growing free cash flow to self-fund a meaningful portion of these growth initiatives.

    本季度調整後的EBITDA 利潤率為3%,這得益於我們強勁的毛利率趨勢和履行成本機構,但被我們令人興奮的增長投資(包括加拿大擴張的影響)所抵消,該投資仍有望在第三季度推出。正如我們在第一季度財報電話會議上指出的那樣,我們繼續利用不斷增長的自由現金流為這些增長計劃的重要部分提供自籌資金。

  • Additionally, our automation efforts continue to be both a driver of margin improvement to date as well as a source of continued upside. Two of our 4 automated facilities are still ramping and our fifth automated site is opening in early 2024. Combined, we expect them to provide additional operating efficiency in the future years.

    此外,迄今為止,我們的自動化工作仍然是利潤率改善的驅動力,也是持續上漲的源泉。我們的 4 個自動化設施中的兩個仍在擴建,我們的第五個自動化設施將於 2024 年初開業。結合起來,我們預計它們將在未來幾年提供額外的運營效率。

  • Before spending time on business initiatives, let me share our perspective on consumer behavior in the pet industry, and in particular, how these trends may impact active customers and NSPAC at Chewy. Coming out of the summer months, we are sensing a shift in consumer mindset towards being more discernible and at the same time, with a higher willingness to consolidate their share of wallet to their trusted retailer of choice. This behavior is driven by a more fluid macro environment, including high levels of inflation, which have been passed to the industry over the past 18 months.

    在花時間討論業務計劃之前,讓我先分享一下我們對寵物行業消費者行為的看法,特別是這些趨勢可能如何影響 Chewy 的活躍客戶和 NSPAC。夏季過後,我們感覺到消費者的心態正在發生轉變,變得更加清晰,同時也更願意將自己的錢包份額整合到他們選擇的值得信賴的零售商那裡。這種行為是由更加不穩定的宏觀環境驅動的,包括過去 18 個月傳遞給該行業的高通脹水平。

  • Our dialogue with our suppliers confirms that these trends are permeating throughout the pet industry. At Chewy, we are, in many ways, insulated from these pressures given our high-quality customer base, the mix of our consumables and health care businesses, which drove nearly 85% of our net sales in Q2. Our powerful Autoship subscription service, best-in-class health care experience, and our overall promise of competitive devices, convenience and unparalleled customer service.

    我們與供應商的對話證實,這些趨勢正在滲透到整個寵物行業。在 Chewy,我們在很多方面都免受這些壓力,因為我們擁有高質量的客戶群,我們的消費品和醫療保健業務組合推動了我們第二季度淨銷售額的近 85%。我們強大的 Autoship 訂閱服務、一流的醫療保健體驗,以及我們對有競爭力的設備、便利性和無與倫比的客戶服務的總體承諾。

  • Our loyal customers recognize these attributes as key differentiators and continue to demonstrate robust ordering behavior which, in turn, continues to support our strong performance. Further to this point, we see significant potential to continue growing share of wallet with our existing customers, evidenced by our strong track record of sustainable NSPAC expansion.

    我們的忠實客戶將這些屬性視為關鍵的差異化因素,並繼續表現出穩健的訂購行為,這反過來又繼續支持我們的強勁業績。除此之外,我們認為現有客戶的錢包份額有繼續增長的巨大潛力,我們可持續 NSPAC 擴張的良好記錄就證明了這一點。

  • As you may recall, we have grown NSPAC from around $330 in the year preceding our IPO to $530 this quarter, up approximately 60% over that time. While we saw a modest benefit from price increases, efforts such as growing Chewy Health ecosystem, increasing uptake of our Autoship program and our large customer base that spends more with us over time, have driven the majority of our NSPAC expansion. This underscores the sustainability of our track record as well as the ongoing potential to outperform the pet industry and deliver strong and profitable growth.

    您可能還記得,我們將 NSPAC 從 IPO 前一年的約 330 美元增至本季度的 530 美元,同期增長了約 60%。雖然我們從價格上漲中看到了適度的好處,但諸如不斷發展的Chewy Health 生態系統、我們的Autoship 計劃的增加以及我們龐大的客戶群隨著時間的推移在我們身上花費更多等努力推動了我們NSPAC 的大部分擴張。這強調了我們業績記錄的可持續性,以及超越寵物行業並實現強勁盈利增長的持續潛力。

  • Now, while we're more insulated than some others, we are not fully exempt from the pressures currently facing the pet industry. Pet household formation remains relatively muted. And as I mentioned above, the consumer mindset continues to be pressured. These fact taken together make the current environment a challenging period to forecast consumer behavior. Taking this into consideration, we continue to see potential for returning net adds growth during the second half of this year. But in light of recent trends, we are now expecting a wider range of potential outcomes. While the industry-wide trends I just described make it challenging to forecast net adds, these dynamics are not specific to Chewy. And we believe we are well positioned to drive improved active customer trends as macro factors and consumer behavior patterns normalize.

    現在,雖然我們比其他一些人更加隔離,但我們並不能完全擺脫寵物行業目前面臨的壓力。寵物家庭的形成仍然相對較少。正如我上面提到的,消費者心態繼續受到壓力。這些事實加在一起使得當前環境成為預測消費者行為的一個充滿挑戰的時期。考慮到這一點,我們繼續看到今年下半年淨增加增長的潛力。但鑑於最近的趨勢,我們現在期待更廣泛的潛在結果。雖然我剛剛描述的全行業趨勢使得預測淨增長變得具有挑戰性,但這些動態並不是 Chewy 特有的。我們相信,隨著宏觀因素和消費者行為模式的正常化,我們有能力推動活躍客戶趨勢的改善。

  • Now I would like to provide an update on some of our strategic initiatives. Our upcoming expansion into the Canadian market remains on track for Q3 of this year. Canada represents a large and fast-growing pet category, and our teams are hard at work finalizing selection, ensuring the same convenient delivery experience and high bar service that our U.S. customers enjoy.

    現在我想介紹一下我們的一些戰略舉措的最新情況。我們即將在今年第三季度向加拿大市場擴張。加拿大代表著一個龐大且快速增長的寵物類別,我們的團隊正在努力完成選擇,以確保我們的美國客戶享受同樣便捷的送貨體驗和高標準服務。

  • We look forward to sharing our progress over the quarters to come. In sponsored ads, one of our prospective margin-accretive growth vectors, we are executing against a compelling road map and remain on track to ramp the program throughout the second half of the year and into 2024. We remain encouraged by the opportunity ahead and we'll continue to update you on progress as we scale the business.

    我們期待在未來幾個季度分享我們的進展。在搜索廣告方面,我們預期利潤增長的增長方向之一,我們正在按照令人信服的路線圖執行,並繼續按計劃在今年下半年和2024 年期間推進該計劃。我們仍然對未來的機會感到鼓舞,我們隨著我們擴大業務規模,我們將繼續向您通報最新進展情況。

  • Lastly, I'm excited to announce that we to host our first Investor Day later this year. Chewy has come a long way since our 2019 IPO, having nearly tripled our net sales to north of $10 billion, expanded gross margin by 800 basis points and adjusted EBITDA margin by nearly 1,000 basis points. Yet we are just getting started and believe that we still have considerable runway with clear potential to outperform the broader pet industry and drive both strong growth as well as significant margin expansion. We look forward to sharing a deep dive on our highly integrated pet ecosystem unveiling our exciting road map ahead and recalibrating our long-term financial expectations to reflect the upside we see in the Chewy platform.

    最後,我很高興地宣布,我們將在今年晚些時候舉辦首屆投資者日。自2019 年IPO 以來,Chewy 取得了長足的進步,我們的淨銷售額幾乎增加了兩倍,達到100 億美元以上,毛利率擴大了800 個基點,調整後的EBITDA 利潤率增加了近1,000 個基點。然而,我們才剛剛開始,相信我們仍然有相當大的跑道,有明顯的潛力超越更廣泛的寵物行業,並推動強勁增長和顯著的利潤擴張。我們期待著深入探討我們高度集成的寵物生態系統,揭開我們激動人心的未來路線圖,並重新調整我們的長期財務預期,以反映我們在 Chewy 平台上看到的優勢。

  • In closing, I'm particularly proud of our strong results and the high levels of customer engagement that we achieved in Q2. We operate in a secular growth category with demonstrated consumer resiliency and Q2 once again showcased the strength and durability of our platform.

    最後,我對我們在第二季度取得的強勁業績和高水平的客戶參與度感到特別自豪。我們在一個長期增長的類別中運營,展示了消費者的彈性,第二季度再次展示了我們平台的實力和耐用性。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Stacy.

    這樣,我會將電話轉給史黛西。

  • Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

    Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

  • Thank, Sumit. I look forward to engaging with many of you in this new role.

    謝謝,蘇米特。我期待著與你們中的許多人一起擔任這個新角色。

  • In the second quarter, net sales grew 14.3% or $347 million to $2.78 billion. Nondiscretionary consumables and health care categories continued to meaningfully contribute to growth in the quarter, collectively representing approximately 85% of second quarter net sales.

    第二季度淨銷售額增長 14.3%,即 3.47 億美元,達到 27.8 億美元。非必需消費品和醫療保健類別繼續對本季度的增長做出重大貢獻,合計約佔第二季度淨銷售額的 85%。

  • Autoship customers were $2.1 billion, up 18.1% and continue to outpace aggregate top line growth by almost 400 basis points. Autoship customer sales now represent 75.5% of total net sales. Active customers remain broadly flat on a sequential basis and finished Q2 at 20.4 million. However, our primary measure of customer engagement, NSPAC, grew 14.7% to $530. Notably, both NSPAC and Autoship customer sales yet again reached new record highs.

    Autoship 客戶價值 21 億美元,增長 18.1%,繼續高於總收入增長近 400 個基點。 Autoship 客戶銷售額目前佔總淨銷售額的 75.5%。活躍客戶數量環比基本持平,第二季度末活躍客戶數量為 2,040 萬。然而,我們衡量客戶參與度的主要指標 NSPAC 增長了 14.7%,達到 530 美元。值得注意的是,NSPAC 和 Autoship 客戶銷售額再次創下歷史新高。

  • As we move down the P&L, please note that my discussion of financials, where applicable, refers to metrics, excluding share-based compensation expense and related taxes as well as certain other adjustments disclosed in our SEC filings where relevant. The same applies to my discussion of guidance and financial outlook.

    當我們向下移動損益表時,請注意,我對財務狀況的討論(如果適用)指的是指標,不包括基於股票的補償費用和相關稅收以及我們的SEC 文件中披露的相關某些其他調整。這同樣適用於我對指導和財務前景的討論。

  • Gross margin reached to 28.3% in Q2, which reflects a 20-basis point expansion broadly consistent with our expectations for the quarter. Continuing on to OpEx, SG&A excluding share-based compensation and related taxes, totaled $550.9 million or 19.8% of net sales, deleveraging 20 basis points compared to the second quarter of 2022. This temporary increase was largely driven by corporate payroll increases related to our growth initiatives, such as sponsored ads and our expansion into Canada, ahead of realizing the associated expected net sales growth. The SG&A deleveraging was partially mitigated by continued fulfillment cost efficiencies supported by our automation initiatives.

    第二季度毛利率達到 28.3%,增長 20 個基點,與我們對本季度的預期基本一致。繼續運營支出,SG&A(不包括股權激勵和相關稅費)總計5.509 億美元,占淨銷售額的19.8%,與2022 年第二季度相比,去槓桿化了20 個基點。這一暫時的增長主要是由於與我們相關的企業薪資增長所致。在實現相關的預期淨銷售額增長之前,我們採取了一些增長舉措,例如搜索廣告和我們向加拿大的擴張。我們的自動化計劃支持的持續履行成本效率在一定程度上緩解了SG&A去槓桿化的影響。

  • Q2 advertising and marketing expense was $185.5 million or 6.7% of net sales, consistent with our expectation of 6% to 7% of net sales. Second quarter adjusted net income was $63.3 million, an increase of $1.2 million. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $86.9 million, up $3.8 million, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.1%.

    第二季度廣告和營銷費用為 1.855 億美元,占淨銷售額的 6.7%,與我們占淨銷售額 6% 至 7% 的預期一致。第二季度調整後淨利潤為 6330 萬美元,增加 120 萬美元。第二季度調整後 EBITDA 達到 8690 萬美元,增加 380 萬美元,意味著調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.1%。

  • Second quarter free cash flow was $101.1 million, reflecting $158.8 million in net cash provided by operating activities and $57.6 million in capital expenditures. Capital expenditures were primarily comprised of automated fulfillment center investments, and ongoing technology projects. As a reminder, we regularly see fluctuations in CapEx intensity from quarter-to-quarter.

    第二季度自由現金流為 1.011 億美元,反映出經營活動提供的淨現金 1.588 億美元和資本支出 5760 萬美元。資本支出主要包括自動化履行中心投資和正在進行的技術項目。提醒一下,我們經常看到資本支出強度按季度波動。

  • Following below average CapEx intensity in the first quarter, CapEx spending increased in the second quarter. Overall, we expect 2023 capital expenditures to remain in the range of 1.5% to 2% of net sales. We finished Q2 with $905.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities, nearly $300 million higher than the balance at this time last year, and we remain debt-free. At the end of Q2, between cash on hand, marketable securities and availability on our ABL, our liquidity stood at $1.7 billion. That concludes my second quarter recap.

    繼第一季度資本支出強度低於平均水平之後,第二季度資本支出有所增加。總體而言,我們預計 2023 年資本支出將保持在淨銷售額的 1.5% 至 2% 範圍內。第二季度結束時,我們擁有 9.054 億美元的現金、現金等價物和有價證券,比去年同期的餘額高出近 3 億美元,而且我們仍然沒有債務。第二季度末,根據手頭現金、有價證券和 ABL 的可用情況,我們的流動性為 17 億美元。我的第二季度回顧到此結束。

  • So now let me cover our third quarter and full year 2023 guidance. As always, our guidance reflects a balanced view that incorporates the strength of our business model and customer engagement along with the latest views on the evolving economic outlook. We expect third quarter net sales to be between $2.74 billion and $2.76 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 8% to 9%. We are reiterating our full year 2023 net sales outlook of $11.15 billion to $11.35 billion, representing growth of approximately 10% to 12% compared to full year 2022. We are also reiterating our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin outlook of approximately 3%. As you update your models, although note, that we expect our free cash flow for full year 2023 to be approximately 2.5x the free cash flow we generated in full year 2022.

    現在讓我介紹一下我們的第三季度和 2023 年全年指引。與往常一樣,我們的指導反映了平衡的觀點,融合了我們的業務模式和客戶參與的優勢以及對不斷變化的經濟前景的最新觀點。我們預計第三季度淨銷售額將在 27.4 億美元至 27.6 億美元之間,同比增長約 8% 至 9%。我們重申2023 年全年淨銷售額預期為111.5 億至113.5 億美元,與2022 年全年相比增長約10% 至12%。我們還重申2023 年全年調整後EBITDA 利潤率預期約為3% 。但請注意,當您更新模型時,我們預計 2023 年全年的自由現金流量約為 2022 年全年產生的自由現金流量的 2.5 倍。

  • Before we open the call to questions, I'd like to reiterate that our strong second quarter earnings reflect the resilience of our operating model in an evolving macro environment. We believe that Chewy is exceptionally well equipped to navigate the road ahead and deliver strong performance as our execution is grounded in our operating philosophy of driving sustainable, profitable growth.

    在我們開始提問之前,我想重申,我們強勁的第二季度收益反映了我們的運營模式在不斷變化的宏觀環境中的彈性。我們相信,Chewy 完全有能力引領未來的道路並提供強勁的業績,因為我們的執行是基於我們推動可持續、盈利增長的運營理念。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.

    然後,我會將電話轉給接線員詢問問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • Sumit, if you could talk more about the wider range of outcomes for active customers in the back half. Curious how much is hardgoods-driven acquisition of factors here, even though it's not a big piece of your business. And if my math is right, the 4Q guidance range is around 5% to 12%, which feels pretty wide. Just hoping you can help us understand what's happening at both of those extremes.

    Sumit,您能否更多地談談後半段活躍客戶的更廣泛的結果。很好奇這裡有多少是由耐用品驅動的要素採購,即使它不是您業務的重要組成部分。如果我的計算正確的話,第四季度指導範圍約為 5% 至 12%,感覺相當寬。只是希望您能幫助我們了解這兩個極端情況下發生的情況。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Okay. Just to clarify the guidance range you're talking about, revenue guidance range or somehow customer guidance range?

    好的。只是為了澄清您所說的指導範圍,收入指導範圍還是客戶指導範圍?

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • Revenue, yes, the implied revenue guidance range for 4Q.

    收入,是的,第四季度的隱含收入指導範圍。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Okay. That's not -- so just to address that head on, that's not how wide we're thinking. We're estimating the range of outcomes on net adds to be a bit wider. We clearly communicated that we expect growth in the back half of the year. And while that's certainly possible, we're sort of modeling a couple of different types of scenarios, but on the back of that, I want to reiterate the guidance that we provided, which we actually feel pretty good about given the strength that we're seeing from ordering customers and the engagement from those customers on our platform.

    好的。那不是——所以只是為了解決這個問題,這不是我們思考的範圍。我們估計淨增加結果的範圍會更廣一些。我們明確表示,我們預計下半年會出現增長。雖然這當然是可能的,但我們正在對幾種不同類型的場景進行建模,但在此基礎上,我想重申我們提供的指導,鑑於我們的實力,我們實際上對此感到非常滿意。我們從訂購客戶以及這些客戶在我們平台上的參與度中看到了這一點。

  • Now let me go back and kind of give you the color on why we're projecting a wider outcome or wide range on the net adds or active ads kind of conversation that we've been having in the last couple of quarters. So essentially, what's happening is, I will provide a short version, happy to dive in the details here. So consistent with what we've previously communicated, large COVID cohorts that were headwind to net adds during the first half of the year, where we continue to expect this impact to diminish in the second half now that we've reached the 2-year mark for a majority of these cohorts.

    現在讓我回顧一下,向您解釋一下為什麼我們在過去幾個季度中一直在進行網絡添加或主動廣告類型的對話,以預測更廣泛的結果或範圍。所以本質上,發生的事情是,我將提供一個簡短的版本,很樂意在這裡深入了解細節。因此,與我們之前傳達的信息一致,今年上半年,大量新冠肺炎疫情對淨新增人數構成了逆風,我們繼續預計這種影響將在下半年減弱,因為我們已經達到了兩年期的淨增長目標。對這些群體中的大多數人進行標記。

  • At the same time, coming out of Q2, what we've seen is a slightly more discernible customer. And it really started in July for us much more than it did in May and June. And so we just haven't had enough time for this to play through. So I -- we're projecting what we're seeing right now forward. And what it is, is that for the more recently acquired or newer cohorts of customers whose behavior is proving difficult to forecast, given kind of the pressures that they're under, given the high inflation, we just have to -- we believe we have to work harder and we will have to work harder to earn their trust, simply because they are more distracted by the current macro pressure, and they haven't yet had the cycles to experience the Chewy magic.

    與此同時,從第二季度開始,我們看到的是一個稍微更清晰的客戶。對我們來說,它確實是從七月開始的,比五月和六月要多得多。所以我們只是沒有足夠的時間來完成這個任務。所以我——我們正在預測我們現在所看到的未來。事實上,對於最近獲得的或較新的客戶群來說,考慮到他們所面臨的壓力和高通脹,他們的行為被證明很難預測,我們必須——我們相信我們我們必須更加努力,我們也必須更加努力,才能贏得他們的信任,只是因為他們更容易被當前的宏觀壓力分散注意力,而且他們還沒有周期來體驗耐嚼的魔力。

  • So we know that we have to execute even more sharply to deliver value to the cohorts of customers that are seeking value in the near term such that we are winning with them as much as we win with the customers that are already loyal to Chewy. So it's really kind of a tale of 2 cities. The loyal cohorts stay loyal and they're consolidating their share of wallet with us, that is driving the NSPAC expansion.

    因此,我們知道,我們必須更加銳利地執行,為短期內尋求價值的客戶群體提供價值,這樣我們才能贏得他們,就像我們贏得已經忠誠於 Chewy 的客戶一樣。所以這實際上是兩個城市的故事。忠誠的群體保持忠誠,他們正在與我們鞏固自己的錢包份額,這正在推動 NSPAC 的擴張。

  • And in this recent July trend that we're slightly seeing projected into August so far, is what's causing us to say, "Hey, maybe we should widen the aperture here and play through a range of sensitivities." Yes. But on the back half, we're pretty confident about delivering the -- or holding our guidance, which, by the way, is going to be a share winning position in the back half of the year.

    到目前為止,我們稍微看到了最近的 7 月趨勢,這使得我們說:“嘿,也許我們應該擴大這裡的範圍並發揮一系列敏感性。”是的。但在下半年,我們對實現或維持我們的指導非常有信心,順便說一句,這將成為今年下半年的一個贏利點。

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • And if I could just follow up on NSPAC. Can you just help us parse out what's happening kind of 2Q and 3Q between inflation and like-for-like pricing?

    如果我能跟進 NSPAC 就好了。您能幫我們分析一下第二季度和第三季度通脹和同類定價之間發生的情況嗎?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Yes, sure. So pricing is going to impact in 2 different ways, and Stacy can also provide some color if she wants to [hear]. But essentially, on pricing, what you're going to see is the back half, the cost increases that came through in 2H of '22, right, we benefited from them in the first half of '23. So going into the back half, our growth is driven as a combination, the revenue composition is weighted volume and price and not overweighted towards price. On NSPAC, as we've decomposed our net pack -- or deconstruct our NSPAC, what we can confidently state is that inflation over the past years has provided a modest benefit.

    是的,當然。因此,定價將以兩種不同的方式產生影響,如果史黛西想[聽到],她也可以提供一些顏色。但本質上,在定價方面,你將看到的是後半部分,即 22 年 2 月份出現的成本增加,對吧,我們在 23 年上半年從中受益。因此,進入下半年,我們的增長是綜合驅動的,收入構成是加權數量和價格,而不是過度偏向價格。在 NSPAC 上,當我們分解我們的淨包時,或者解構我們的 NSPAC 時,我們可以自信地說,過去幾年的通貨膨脹提供了適度的好處。

  • So greater than kind of 2/3 to north of 70% of the benefit that we're seeing in the NSPAC growth is organically cohort development plus Autoship development plus health development, et cetera, et cetera. So it's all accretive. And obviously, Q4, we expect a little more transactional given kind of the holiday season and the ASP compressions that generally take place on time like that. So it's a bit more transaction in Q3.

    因此,我們在 NSPAC 增長中看到的收益的 2/3 到 70% 以上是有機隊列開發加上 Autoship 開發加上健康開發等等。所以這一切都是累積性的。顯然,考慮到假期季節和通常按時發生的平均售價壓縮,我們預計第四季度的交易量會更多一些。因此,第三季度的交易量有所增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的埃里克·謝里丹。

  • Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

  • Maybe I want to come back to the ad business potential, both to the end of this year and into the next fiscal year. Maybe you could refresh us on some of the key learnings you've had from debating and working with partners on the ads business rollout. And how should we be thinking about the elements of ad coverage or advertiser response within [just you're] trying to line up ahead of that more wider launch later this year?

    也許我想在今年年底和下一個財年回到廣告業務的潛力。也許您可以向我們介紹一下您在廣告業務推廣方面與合作夥伴的辯論和合作中獲得的一些重要經驗。在今年晚些時候更廣泛的發布之前,我們應該如何考慮廣告覆蓋範圍或廣告商反應的要素?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure. So this is essentially a tale of 2 cities also. The demand on the platform is far exceeding the supply that we have right now opened up to our suppliers, which is obviously a point that proves kind of the conviction behind the product as well as the quality of the product that the team is launching. The guardrail on opening of supply is limited to make sure -- that we're making sure that the organic experience that customers have come to enjoy, right, doesn't get overrun by sort of the -- we just want to make sure we're very thoughtful in opening up that supply. So the plan has always been to ramp this up in 2H, and we're on track for that.

    當然。所以這本質上也是兩個城市的故事。平台上的需求遠遠超過了我們現在向供應商開放的供應量,這顯然證明了產品背後的信念以及團隊正在推出的產品的質量。開放供應的護欄是有限的,以確保——我們正在確保客戶所享受的有機體驗,對吧,不會被某種——我們只是想確保我們在開放供應方面我們考慮得非常周到。因此,我們的計劃一直是在 2 小時內加大力度,我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。

  • In fact, the original forecast that we had kind of coming into perspective as the program scales. We were sort of thinking of this as 1%, 1.5% of opportunity that we are now kind of squarely thinking in the 1% to 3% range and we'll widen our aperture as the program kind of takes hold per se. So the response rate is there. The teams are appropriately focused, customer experience forums the right type of bar to make sure that our quality and go-to-market execution is high.

    事實上,隨著項目規模的擴大,我們最初的預測也逐漸得到了重視。我們之前認為這是 1%、1.5% 的機會,現在我們正視這個機會在 1% 到 3% 的範圍內,隨著該計劃本身的實施,我們將擴大我們的範圍。所以響應率就在那裡。團隊的專注度適當,客戶體驗論壇是正確的酒吧類型,以確保我們的質量和進入市場的執行力很高。

  • ROIs that our vendors are seeing or at least the participating suppliers are seeing are high, particularly as you deal with the subscription nature of our business, and therefore, ROIs appropriate to convert it into an LTV basis rather than a onetime transaction that most ad platforms kind of run in the market per se, which we have always been aware of and that we believe is the strength of the Chewy platform and will allow our suppliers to kind of build their brand in an even more compelling manner.

    我們的供應商或至少參與的供應商看到的投資回報率很高,特別是當您處理我們業務的訂閱性質時,因此,投資回報率適合將其轉換為LTV 基礎,而不是大多數廣告平台的一次性交易市場本身的運行方式,我們一直都意識到這一點,並且我們相信這是 Chewy 平台的優勢,並將允許我們的供應商以更具吸引力的方式建立自己的品牌。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Steven Zaccone with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Steven Zaccone。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • Stacy, congrats on the new role. Sumit, I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit more on the commentary about the consumer changing out in the summer months. Are you seeing more trade down? Are you seeing smaller baskets from these customers? I guess like what makes you concerned it's a new trend versus just a 2-month period at the end of the summer. And when you say you need to work harder with these new customers, does that mean more promotional at the start, should we assume that has some gross margin implications?

    史黛西,祝賀你擔任新角色。 Sumit,我希望您能詳細闡述有關夏季消費者變化的評論。您是否看到更多交易下跌?您是否看到這些顧客的購物籃較小?我想就像是什麼讓你擔心這是一個新趨勢,而不是夏末的兩個月。當您說您需要更加努力地與這些新客戶合作時,這是否意味著一開始就需要進行更多促銷,我們是否應該假設這會對毛利率產生一些影響?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure, sure, sure. Yes. So it's a great question. So are we seeing concerning trends? Not really, not yet. So what do I mean by saying, we're observing the consumer to become a bit more discernible. For the first time in July, we really noticed a shift out of kind of wet food more towards dry food. And that generally is an indication of more value-seeking behavior. We're also seeing kind of treats pull back a little bit. They gained traction in Q1 coming out of 2022 and they've pulled back slightly in Q2, particularly coming out of July, right? It's not material yet to come out and actually raise any alarm bells and we're not because we believe we're fairly insulated.

    當然,當然,當然。是的。所以這是一個很好的問題。那麼我們看到了一些趨勢嗎?還沒有,還沒有。那麼我所說的“我們正在觀察消費者變得更加具有辨別力”是什麼意思呢?在七月份,我們第一次真正注意到從濕糧轉向乾糧。這通常表明更多的是追求價值的行為。我們還看到一些零食有所減少。他們在 2022 年第一季度獲得了關注,但在第二季度略有回落,尤其是在 7 月份,對吧?目前還沒有實質性的結果出來並真正敲響任何警鐘,我們也沒有這樣做,因為我們相信我們已經完全隔離了。

  • So let me give you kind of color on what's happening. I think to really gain the color, we've sort of like broadened the aperture and gains in context here. So from '20 to 2022, the storyline was all about dealing with the pandemic. So coming out of last year, right, 2022 became the year of recovery. Supply chain stabilized, but costs rose dramatically through this period and have been passed on to the consumer by way of unprecedented high prices. And these inflationary pressures are now showing up industry-wide and also impact. Now recall that pet household formation was already muted, right? That hasn't changed through 2022 and continue through the first half '23.

    那麼讓我來告訴你正在發生的事情。我認為為了真正獲得色彩,我們有點像擴大光圈並增加這裡的背景。所以從20年到2022年,故事情節都是關於應對流行病的。所以從去年開始,2022 年就成為了復甦之年。供應鏈穩定了,但在此期間成本急劇上升,並以前所未有的高價格轉嫁給了消費者。而這些通脹壓力現在正在全行業顯現並產生影響。現在回想一下,寵物家庭的形成已經悄然無聲了,對吧?這種情況到 2022 年都沒有改變,並持續到 23 年上半年。

  • In addition to that, this behavior that I am kind of calling out here, it indicates that the consumers being more value conscious at this point. And that makes sense. I mean to think that in times like these, the consumer preferences towards value or convenience makes sense. But the winning combination is offering them both value and convenience. And we believe that for majority consumers, we do that. We offer both value and convenience. And therefore, we believe we're somewhat insulated from the full impact of these current times given the strength in the business model.

    除此之外,我在這裡呼籲的這種行為表明消費者此時更加註重價值。這是有道理的。我的意思是認為,在這樣的時代,消費者對價值或便利的偏好是有道理的。但成功的組合為他們提供了價值和便利。我們相信,對於大多數消費者來說,我們會這樣做。我們提供價值和便利。因此,我們認為,鑑於業務模式的優勢,我們在某種程度上免受當前時代的全面影響。

  • Now for recently acquired customers, right, we we're -- their behavior is hard to predict, right? Their order purchase frequency might be slightly off. Usually, when we see customers come back in 4 weeks, that might be 5 weeks, et cetera. So we believe that we have to be extra sharp. And the CRM capabilities that we've deployed that we developed kind of towards the latter half of last year into this year, right, those are going to be much more sharply deployed towards the back half of the year.

    現在,對於最近獲得的客戶來說,他們的行為很難預測,對吧?他們的訂單購買頻率可能略有偏差。通常,當我們看到客戶在 4 週內回來時,可能會是 5 週,等等。所以我們認為我們必須格外敏銳。我們從去年下半年到今年部署的 CRM 功能,對,這些功能將在今年下半年得到更大幅度的部署。

  • So in terms of promos, we are not going to lead the market as we never do, right? We're price followers. We're not price leaders in that way. But we stand ready to respond. Internally, we're going to find ways to self-fund right, creative ways to pass on the value to the customer. And that doesn't have to be kind of promo led per se, it could be other tactics as well. We also have a series of kind of road map where that we are taking into account in H2 as well as next year, that will formulate our strategy to both acquire net new customers as well as improved retention of the recently acquired cohort. I can continue, but hopefully, that provides a bit of the color.

    因此,就促銷而言,我們不會像以前那樣引領市場,對吧?我們是價格追隨者。我們不是那樣的價格領導者。但我們隨時準備做出回應。在內部,我們將找到自籌資金的方法,以正確、創造性的方式將價值傳遞給客戶。這本身不一定是促銷,也可以是其他策略。我們還有一系列路線圖,我們將在下半年和明年考慮這些路線圖,這將製定我們的戰略,以獲取淨新客戶並提高最近收購的客戶群的保留率。我可以繼續,但希望這能提供一些色彩。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • No, that was very helpful. I need to appreciate all that color. I guess I just have a brief follow-up then. Do you think the overall industry gets more promotional as we get into the back half of the year? So I'm curious, as the 2 months of activity what you've seen as your peer said [about] more promotional?

    不,這非常有幫助。我需要欣賞所有這些顏色。我想我只有一個簡短的後續行動。您認為進入下半年整個行業會得到更多的促銷嗎?所以我很好奇,正如您的同行所說,這兩個月的活動是否意味著更多的促銷活動?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • We do expect that. So if you recall, we've been transparent about our expectation of greater promotionality in 2023 from our Q1 call itself. And both Q1 and Q2, we saw higher promotional activity relative to the pandemic years, but the promotional activity so far has been lower than our expectation. As we move out from first half into second half, we've continued to bake in an incremental promo spend because our expectation is that promotions are going to be higher in back half of the year.

    我們確實希望如此。因此,如果您還記得的話,我們在第一季度電話會議中就對 2023 年加大促銷力度的預期保持了透明。在第一季度和第二季度,我們都看到相對於大流行年份而言,促銷活動有所增加,但迄今為止的促銷活動低於我們的預期。隨著我們從上半年進入下半年,我們繼續增加促銷支出,因為我們的預期是下半年的促銷活動將會更高。

  • So like I said, we're not looking to lead the market, but we stand ready to respond to make sure that customer experience and demand are both protected.

    正如我所說,我們並不打算引領市場,但我們隨時準備做出回應,以確保客戶體驗和需求都得到保護。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Anna Andreeva with Needham.

    我們的下一個問題來自安娜·安德烈耶娃和李約瑟的對話。

  • Anna A. Andreeva - Senior Analyst

    Anna A. Andreeva - Senior Analyst

  • Great. Just a follow-up on the previous question. Just any color on how we should think about the gross margin for the third quarter, just given your comments on potentially higher promos for the industry as we approach the back half. And then secondly, just as a follow-up, you had talked about 50 to 75 basis points from Canada investments this year. What was the amount in the second quarter? And should we think about the balance of more or less evenly split in the back half?

    偉大的。只是上一個問題的後續。只是考慮到您對隨著我們接近下半年該行業可能更高的促銷活動的評論,我們應該如何看待第三季度的毛利率。其次,作為後續行動,您談到了今年加拿大投資的 50 至 75 個基點。第二季度的金額是多少?我們是否應該考慮後半部分或多或少均勻分佈的平衡?

  • Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

    Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

  • Sure. Anna, this is Stacy. I'll take the first question on gross margin. So as you know, we don't typically give formal guidance around gross margin. But we do note it is typical to see some fluctuations from quarter-to-quarter, but we feel good about this quarter and expect gross margin to remain around the 28% level for the balance of the year.

    當然。安娜,這是史黛西。我將回答關於毛利率的第一個問題。如您所知,我們通常不會就毛利率提供正式指導。但我們確實注意到,季度與季度之間出現一些波動是很常見的,但我們對本季度感覺良好,並預計今年剩餘時間的毛利率將保持在 28% 左右的水平。

  • Longer term, we're excited because we believe there is still meaningful room left for gross margin expansion. So for example, as Sumit mentioned earlier, we continue to grow and obtain market share in existing high-margin verticals like Chewy Health. And we also are investing in and stealing new initiatives such as sponsored ad that are margin accretive.

    從長遠來看,我們感到興奮,因為我們相信毛利率仍有很大的擴張空間。例如,正如 Sumit 之前提到的,我們在現有的高利潤垂直行業(如 Chewy Health)中繼續增長並獲得市場份額。我們還投資和竊取新的舉措,例如可以增加利潤的搜索廣告。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • And Anna, on the second question, the EBITDA guidance essentially implies and consumes the level of investment that we are going to make. So they started -- we started ramping investments into Canada and other verticals such as sponsored ads, et cetera, in Q2, and we will see those continue to ramp up through the back half of the year, which is baked into the guidance. Also, if you recall, we mentioned in our -- on our Q1 call, we're going to ramp up new fulfillment centers that launched in the middle of the year, which has continued kind of on its pace, and we should expect some short-term dilution as a result of that.

    安娜,關於第二個問題,EBITDA 指導本質上暗示並消耗了我們將要進行的投資水平。因此,我們開始在第二季度加大對加拿大和搜索廣告等其他垂直行業的投資,我們將看到這些投資在今年下半年繼續增加,這已納入指導。另外,如果您還記得的話,我們在第一季度電話會議中提到,我們將在今年年中推出新的履行中心,該中心的步伐仍在繼續,我們應該期待一些由此造成的短期稀釋。

  • And then finally, the intent promo or promotional environment that we are talking about is also baked in. So that kind of formulates the way that guidance is built for -- on a profit basis for the back half.

    最後,我們正在談論的意圖促銷或促銷環境也被納入其中。因此,這制定了指導的構建方式 - 在後半部分的利潤基礎上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Dylan Carden with William Blair.

    我們的下一個問題來自迪倫·卡登和威廉·布萊爾。

  • Dylan Douglas Carden - Analyst

    Dylan Douglas Carden - Analyst

  • So, I'm just trying to reconcile the idea of a wider range of outcomes now anticipated for net customer adds, albeit still positive and keeping the guidance for the year. I'm just kind of curious what levers or optionality you might be envisioning in doing that?

    因此,我只是試圖調和現在預計淨客戶增加的更廣泛結果的想法,儘管仍然是積極的並保持今年的指導。我只是有點好奇你在這樣做時可能會想到什麼手段或選擇?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • How we plan on exceeding our own expectations, Dylan? Is that basically the question?

    迪倫,我們計劃如何超越我們自己的期望?這基本上是問題嗎?

  • Dylan Douglas Carden - Analyst

    Dylan Douglas Carden - Analyst

  • Well, it seems like there's sort of incremental caution on the net customer adds in back half and then sort of keeping the guidance as it is and sort of where you said the third quarter, just try to understand just reconcile those 2 ideas that seem to [adopted].

    嗯,看起來後半部分的淨客戶增加了一些增量謹慎,然後保持了原樣的指導,就像你在第三季度所說的那樣,只是嘗試理解調和這兩個似乎的想法[通過]。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Got it. Okay. The strength that we're seeing -- the balance is essentially drawn Dylan, from the strength that we're seeing in open customers. So market sizes are holding up pretty good. Autoship penetration rates are holding up steady. Asset in Autoship are holding up steady. And so our ordering frequency was higher for existing customers. And so it's this notion of during times like these, customers consolidate their share of wallet instead of continuing to perhaps cross-shop even a little bit that they do as part of their normal day-to-day. And so we believe that trend will continue through the back half of the year.

    知道了。好的。我們看到的力量——平衡本質上是迪倫的力量,來自我們在開放客戶中看到的力量。因此,市場規模保持得相當不錯。汽車運輸滲透率保持穩定。 Autoship 資產保持穩定。因此,我們現有客戶的訂購頻率更高。因此,在這樣的時期,顧客會鞏固他們的錢包份額,而不是繼續像他們日常生活的一部分那樣交叉購物,哪怕只是一點點。因此,我們相信這種趨勢將持續到今年下半年。

  • Secondly, we provided a bit of a data point here today stating the penetration that we are driving into our verticals such as Chewy health, particularly prescription, food and medication. That continues through the back half of the year as well. And three, our mobile app continues to gain traction. The percentage of orders that went through the app and the AOE benefit that we see, our customers that are more engaged is also going to build in a little bit in the back half per se. So all of that essentially hold us right now. It gives us the confidence that we can deliver the backup in the way that we are.

    其次,我們今天在這裡提供了一些數據點,說明我們正在推動耐嚼健康等垂直領域的滲透,特別是處方藥、食品和藥物。這種情況也將持續到今年下半年。第三,我們的移動應用程序繼續受到關注。通過應用程序處理的訂單百分比以及我們看到的 AOE 收益、我們的客戶參與度更高,也會在後半部分本身有所增加。因此,所有這些現在基本上都限制著我們。它讓我們有信心能夠以現有的方式提供備份。

  • On the customer side the -- it's more recent, right? If these recent cohorts that have been a little more deal seeking and value conscious. And so we're -- we're just -- we're watching this one really carefully to understand what kind of cohort behaviors are being demonstrated or the repeat order rate like we expect and want them to be? Is there ASP compression and basket sizes as this cohort kind of ramps up, et cetera, et cetera. So primarily, we're going to deploy a series of tactics to make sure that we are kind of protecting ourselves as well as serving both value and convenience. So overall, we feel good playing out from here.

    在客戶方面——它是最近的,對吧?如果這些最近的群體更加尋求交易和價值意識。所以我們——我們只是——我們正在非常仔細地觀察這一點,以了解正在展示什麼樣的群體行為或重複訂單率是否像我們預期和希望的那樣?隨著該群體的增長,是否會出現 ASP 壓縮和籃子大小等問題。因此,首先,我們將部署一系列策略,以確保我們能夠保護自己並提供價值和便利。所以總的來說,我們從這裡開始感覺很好。

  • Dylan Douglas Carden - Analyst

    Dylan Douglas Carden - Analyst

  • Got it. And kind of maybe sneak one just about automation. Any way to kind of quantify or scale the impact that you're seeing already from automation and kind of where you are in the utilization of those facilities. I think you've given that historically.

    知道了。或許還可以偷偷介紹一下自動化。任何方式來量化或擴展您已經從自動化中看到的影響以及您在使用這些設施方面的情況。我認為你已經在歷史上給出了這一點。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So if you recall, we've launched 4, we're on track to open our fifth one next year of the 4 that have launched, 2 are ramped and 2 are ramping. And for every fulfillment center that we ramp, you should expect roughly 20 to 30 basis points of leverage that we will provide. Of the remaining 10 profession centers, we have left room and are actively starting to retrofit with other ideas that will start to provide leverage in the future for us. We're actually excited to share our road map of the future at the Investor Day that we announced today in the back half of this year. So we're always on track on the supply transformation side.

    是的。因此,如果您還記得的話,我們已經推出了 4 家,明年我們將在已推出的 4 家中開設第五家,其中 2 家已經推出,還有 2 家正在增加。對於我們新建的每個履行中心,您應該期望我們將提供大約 20 到 30 個基點的槓桿。在剩下的 10 個專業中心中,我們留出了空間,並正在積極開始用其他想法進行改造,這些想法將在未來為我們提供槓桿作用。實際上,我們很高興在今年下半年的投資者日上分享我們的未來路線圖。因此,我們在供應轉型方面始終走在正軌上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Mark Mahaney with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Mark Mahaney。

  • Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

    Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

  • I wanted to ask first on the Canada launch and on sponsored ads. On the Canada launch, could you give us a sense of the timing of that during the quarter? Like -- and if it's successful, should we start seeing that in net adds already in the September quarter? Or is it a late quarter launch and so if it's successful, it would only show up in Q4. And I know you -- I know we're talking -- starting from nothing. So I guess that it would be a small contribution but just trying to understand the timing.

    我想首先詢問加拿大的發布和搜索廣告。關於在加拿大的推出,您能給我們介紹一下本季度推出的時間嗎?就像 - 如果它成功了,我們是否應該開始在九月季度的淨增加中看到這一點?或者它是在季度末推出的,所以如果它成功了,它只會在第四季度出現。我了解你——我知道我們正在談論——從無到有。所以我想這將是一個小小的貢獻,但只是試圖了解時間安排。

  • And then on sponsored ads, are you doing this all internally organically? Or are you working with third-party retail media networks to start growing that?

    然後在搜索廣告方面,您是否在內部有機地進行這一切?或者您是否正在與第三方零售媒體網絡合作來開始發展?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure. From sponsored we're doing most of this internally, Mark. So that's the short version of that answer. On Canada, we are expecting launch imminently and it starts ramping really in Q4. So the impact would likely start -- we will start feeling the impact in Q4, but we haven't built in any materiality in our forecast for this year.

    當然。馬克,我們大部分的讚助工作都是在內部完成的。這就是該答案的簡短版本。在加拿大,我們預計即將推出,並在第四季度開始真正增長。因此,影響可能會開始——我們將在第四季度開始感受到影響,但我們尚未在今年的預測中納入任何實質性內容。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Brian Fitzgerald with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的布萊恩·菲茨杰拉德。

  • Brian Nicholas Fitzgerald - Senior Analyst

    Brian Nicholas Fitzgerald - Senior Analyst

  • A couple of follow-ups. The crop category pharma penetration 20%, where do you think that can get to at maturity? And is that accelerating? And then a follow-up on the NSPAC hitting $530. Can you opine a little bit on what's going on with household spend? And how much of that do you think you can eventually capture as you continue to add different products and different SKUs and services?

    一些後續行動。農作物類藥品滲透率為 20%,您認為成熟時會達到什麼程度?而且這種情況正在加速嗎?然後 NSPAC 的後續價格達到 530 美元。您能否對家庭支出的情況發表一些看法?當您繼續添加不同的產品、不同的 SKU 和服務時,您認為您最終可以捕獲多少?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure. Brian, on the cross category for Rx, in one of our top priorities inside the company, is one where we believe every active Chewy customer should also be a Chewy pharmacy customer. So there's a lot of headroom here for us, and we are excited about that. And yes, on a year-over-year basis, it is accelerating or has accelerated and all positive year. NSPAC household spend can be captured. We believe we are -- for our loyal customers, we're likely capturing a majority of their spend in the food and health segment today. Supplements was an opportunity for us 2 years ago, but we closed that gap pretty credibly last year, which has actually also contributed to the NSPAC expansion for us.

    當然。 Brian 屬於 Rx 的交叉類別,這是我們公司內部的首要任務之一,我們相信每個活躍的 Chewy 客戶也應該是 Chewy 藥房客戶。因此,我們有很大的空間,我們對此感到興奮。是的,與去年同期相比,它正在加速或已經加速,而且都是積極的一年。可以捕獲 NSPAC 家庭支出。我們相信,對於我們忠實的客戶來說,我們今天可能會在食品和健康領域佔據大部分支出。兩年前,補充劑對我們來說是一個機會,但去年我們相當可靠地縮小了這一差距,這實際上也為我們的 NSPAC 擴張做出了貢獻。

  • So on these merge classes that constitute food, toppers, health, whether it's diet or prescription medication or OTC or supplements, we believe we are actively consolidating and gaining share. And that truly is kind of where the consumer's mindset is today because if you recall what's happened consumer allocated $100 towards pet. In the past, it used to be $80 in consumables and health, $20 on hard goods. That $20 hard goods has essentially shifted out of there, and most of that is now being spent for consumables and health and it will remain so up until the macro recovers in our opinion.

    因此,在這些構成食品、配料、健康的合併類別中,無論是飲食、處方藥、非處方藥還是補充劑,我們相信我們正在積極整合併獲得份額。這確實是當今消費者的心態,因為如果你回想一下發生的事情,消費者會為寵物分配 100 美元。過去,消耗品和健康品為 80 美元,耐用品為 20 美元。 20 美元的硬商品基本上已經轉移出去,其中大部分現在都用於消耗品和健康,我們認為這種情況將持續到宏觀經濟復甦為止。

  • Long term, we're actually -- the fact that the spend continues to move from offline to online. I believe we will emerge as a stronger company in the future given both our base, the level of investments that we've made through the pandemic and the execution quality that the team continues to demonstrate. So overall, we're much -- we're bullish about the future. We all connect that we have to endure just a short-term macro as it plays through.

    從長遠來看,我們實際上——支出繼續從線下轉移到線上。我相信,鑑於我們的基礎、我們在疫情期間所做的投資水平以及團隊繼續表現出的執行質量,我們未來將成為一家更強大的公司。總的來說,我們對未來非常樂觀。我們都認為,我們必須忍受短期宏觀經濟的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Lauren Schenk。

  • Nathaniel Jay Feather - Research Associate

    Nathaniel Jay Feather - Research Associate

  • It's Nathan Feather on for Lauren. I just want to dig a little bit more on Chewy Health care about. What gets you from the kind of encouraging 20% cost penetration today to the goal of 100%? And from a pharmacy side, how much of that SKU expansion versus getting more customers to discover it and adopt the [vertical]?

    內森·費瑟 (Nathan Feather) 代表勞倫 (Lauren) 發言。我只是想更多地了解耐嚼健康護理。是什麼讓您從如今令人鼓舞的 20% 成本滲透率轉向 100% 的目標?從藥房方面來看,SKU 的擴展與讓更多客戶發現它並採用[垂直]相比有多少?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So it's primarily -- it's a great question. Primary -- our primary challenge is discoverability of this platform and essentially winning customer trust. If you notice -- or if you recall, I may have mentioned this data point, 1/3 of the customers today in the United States don't visit their pets at a recurring frequency or don't consume medication as the recurring frequency. And so we have an opportunity to not only expand the current TAM that we see in this particular space. We also have the opportunity by driving -- essentially by driving incremental compliance. And that has truly been the power of how we go to market with customers on that of our Autoship platform.

    是的。所以這主要是——這是一個很好的問題。主要——我們的主要挑戰是該平台的可發現性並從根本上贏得客戶的信任。如果您注意到——或者如果您還記得,我可能已經提到過這個數據點,當今美國有 1/3 的顧客不會經常去看望他們的寵物,或者不會經常服用藥物。因此,我們不僅有機會擴展當前在這個特定領域看到的 TAM。我們還有機會通過推動——本質上是通過推動增量合規性。這確實是我們通過 Autoship 平台與客戶一起進入市場的力量。

  • So our Autoship eligibility for pharmacy is at par or even higher than our consumables businesses, and we are rapidly innovating to make sure that customer -- any kind of friction around customer experience, whether it's sign up or whether it's discovery or whether it's sort of checkout, is being addressed actively by the team. Overall, our NPS on this platform continues to remain high, and we're pretty proud to serve a large base of customers. So this is less about being SKUs. It's much more about just making sure that there is awareness as well as discoverability.

    因此,我們的藥房 Autoship 資格與我們的消費品業務相當甚至更高,並且我們正在快速創新,以確保客戶 - 圍繞客戶體驗的任何形式的摩擦,無論是註冊還是發現或是否是某種團隊正在積極解決結賬問題。總體而言,我們在此平台上的 NPS 繼續保持較高水平,我們非常自豪能夠為大量客戶提供服務。所以這與 SKU 無關。更重要的是確保人們的認知度和可發現性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Trevor Young from Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的特雷弗·楊。

  • Trevor Vincent Young - VP

    Trevor Vincent Young - VP

  • First, on a category basis, it looks like hard goods returned to growth in the quarter. Was that kind of consistent with your expectations? And do you expect that cadence to improve from here? Or does that more discerning customer and tougher compares make it likely that growth stays a bit more challenged? And then any update on the insurance initiative with Trupanion and Lemonade. I think that's now available nationwide. Just any initial comments on uptake there relative to your own expectations. Can you shed any light on how that maps to the P&L?

    首先,從品類來看,耐用品似乎在本季度恢復了增長。這與您的期望一致嗎?您預計節奏會從現在開始有所改善嗎?或者,更挑剔的客戶和更嚴格的比較是否會使增長面臨更大的挑戰?然後是有關 Trupanion 和 Lemonade 的保險計劃的任何更新。我認為現在全國范圍內都可以使用。只是與您自己的期望相關的任何初步評論。您能解釋一下它是如何映射到損益表的嗎?

  • Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

    Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

  • Trevor, this is Stacy. So I'll take the hard goods question first. So historically, we always do have some seasonality in our hard goods sales with a small pullback between the first and second quarter. So that also combined with the value-seeking behavior that Sumit spoke about shown by the consumer recently contributed to some softness in hard good growth for this quarter. Our expectations for the rest of the year have not really changed. Yes.

    特雷弗,這是史黛西。所以我首先回答硬貨問題。因此,從歷史上看,我們的耐用品銷售確實存在一些季節性,第一季度和第二季度之間會出現小幅回調。因此,再加上 Sumit 談到的消費者最近表現出的價值追求行為,導致了本季度硬商品增長的疲軟。我們對今年剩餘時間的期望並沒有真正改變。是的。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • On hard goods, it's also easier comps. If you noticed, last Q2 was a negative, almost a high single-digit, low double-digit decline. And so you're comping much softer here from last year. On insurance, we are super excited about having 2 best-in-class providers on our platform. Trupanion and Lemonade. As expected, what it has done is, it's opened up the range of plans and choices across various different price points and coverages to a wider range of our customers. And as you would expect, what that has translated to is the rate of policy sign-up has gone up proportionately because you open up assortment, it drives to incremental revenue pretty -- on a pretty direct correlation basis.

    在硬商品上,比較也更容易。如果你注意到的話,上個季度的第二季度出現了負數,幾乎是高個位數的下降,低兩位數的下降。因此,與去年相比,你在這裡的表現要軟得多。在保險方面,我們對在我們的平台上擁有兩家一流的提供商感到非常興奮。特魯帕尼翁和檸檬水。正如預期的那樣,它所做的是,它為更廣泛的客戶提供了各種不同價格點和覆蓋範圍的計劃和選擇。正如您所期望的那樣,這意味著保單註冊率成比例上升,因為您打開了品種,它在相當直接的相關性基礎上推動了收入的增量增長。

  • So while that's a really positive data point. This vertical itself requires a ton of education and awareness. And we're seeing our metrics head in the positive direction. Our quote to conversion rate or call to quote rate and quote to conversion rates are all improving. Our -- as you would expect, our customer care team is actually becoming a pretty powerful source of educating customers about insurance and therefore, also driving on a high trust basis, providing the information and driving the conversion. This was always our hypothesis to start with because you don't really buy insurance online, you buy it via kind of these assisted channels, and we have one of the best assisted channels out there.

    所以,雖然這是一個非常積極的數據點。這個垂直領域本身就需要大量的教育和意識。我們看到我們的指標正朝著積極的方向發展。我們的報價轉化率或致電報價率以及報價轉化率都在提高。正如您所期望的那樣,我們的客戶服務團隊實際上正在成為對客戶進行保險教育的非常強大的來源,因此,也在高度信任的基礎上推動,提供信息並推動轉化。這始終是我們的假設,因為您並不是真正在網上購買保險,而是通過此類輔助渠道購買,而我們擁有最好的輔助渠道之一。

  • So overall, we're super excited about what's to come. I must kind of note on you that this is a bit of longer arc vertical given that the consideration cycle for customers is longer. So we're not -- we're going to be appropriately patient and play this game over the long term.

    總的來說,我們對即將發生的事情感到非常興奮。我必須向您指出,考慮到客戶的考慮週期更長,這是一個更長的垂直弧線。所以我們不會——我們會保持適當的耐心,長期玩這個遊戲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Seth Basham with Wedbush.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Seth Basham 和 Wedbush。

  • Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

    Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

  • Sumit, I was wondering if you could provide some color on gross adds relative to 2019 like you did in recent quarters? And then also provide some color on CAC trends either year-over-year or sequentially.

    Sumit,我想知道您是否可以像最近幾個季度那樣提供有關 2019 年總增加額的一些信息?然後還提供一些有關 CAC 逐年或連續趨勢的信息。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • So gross ads continued to run higher than 2019. We're not entirely dissatisfied by the pace of our gross adds. We believe the team is executing incredibly. Yes, the categories that are muted are, of course, causing a pullback on gross adds. And I think Doug mentioned whether like the contribution of hard goods is weighing in on customer acquisition. It absolutely is. But on the balance, we're not totally dissatisfied by the pace of gross adds. Net new to Chewy is slightly softer than pre-pandemic, but reactivations are much stronger than pre-pandemic. So if you combine those two, the overall output is that gross adds are stronger than 2019.

    因此,廣告總收入繼續高於 2019 年。我們對總增加速度並不完全不滿意。我們相信團隊的執行力令人難以置信。是的,被抑制的類別當然會導致總增加量的回落。我認為道格提到了耐用品的貢獻是否會影響客戶獲取。絕對是。但總的來說,我們對總增加速度並不完全不滿意。 Chewy 的淨新值比大流行前稍弱,但重新激活比大流行前強得多。因此,如果將這兩者結合起來,總的產出就是總增加量強於 2019 年。

  • And then color on CAC, not much has changed from what I believe I shared last time, which is the CAC has increased over the last couple of years, at least through the -- as we've come out of the pandemic because then you were picking up -- everybody was declaring intent and you were picking up customers quite economically. But candidly, the -- when viewed from the lens of LTV to CAC, LTV has also continued to go up. So our ratios have actually very nicely maintained.

    然後,CAC 上的顏色,與我上次分享的情況相比,沒有太大變化,即 CAC 在過去幾年中有所增加,至少在我們走出大流行的過程中,因為那時你正在接客— —每個人都在宣布意向,而你正在相當經濟地接客。但坦率地說,從 LTV 到 CAC 的角度來看,LTV 也在持續上升。所以我們的比率實際上保持得很好。

  • And on an ROI standpoint, we're spending where we believe we should be spending from a marginal point of view. The reason CAC continues to go up right now and will remain high up until the macro recovers, in my opinion is, a, there's a shallower pool of customers declaring intent. So clearly, the competition for the same customer is higher and that drives up the bid rate. And then b, recall that social used to be a pretty active channel a few years ago, and the loss of targeting has actually led to a loss of yield that drives up CAC in the social channels. So it's a combination of those two. But LTV is going up appropriately.

    從投資回報率的角度來看,我們的支出是從邊際角度來看我們認為應該支出的地方。在我看來,CAC 目前繼續上漲並將保持在高位直到宏觀經濟復甦的原因是,a,表明意向的客戶群較少。很明顯,對同一客戶的競爭更加激烈,從而提高了出價率。然後b,回想一下幾年前社交渠道曾經是一個非常活躍的渠道,而目標的喪失實際上導致了收益的損失,從而推高了社交渠道的CAC。所以它是兩者的結合。但 LTV 正在適當上升。

  • Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

    Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

  • That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, is LTV going up appropriately for the most recent cohort of customers too? And if not, if that LTV/CAC ratio is weakening for the most recent cohorts. Are you going to adjust where you're spending to find new customers?

    這很有幫助。作為後續行動,LTV 是否也適合最近一批客戶的適當上升?如果不是,最近一批的 LTV/CAC 比率是否正在減弱。您會調整支出來尋找新客戶嗎?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • We always do actually. So cumulative contribution profit is what we go after. And we're always trying to sort of find that tangential point where this sits over to the fact -- to the point where the campaign actually becomes negative returning. So far, the team has been very diligent. And we've actually experimented with trying to spend money to pick up discretionary customers, and it's just not a high ROI effort right now. So we're not really going after that because we would rather maintain the quality that drives the repeat purchase. Otherwise, you never really get out of the spiral of churn and spending money to keep that customer per se.

    事實上我們總是這樣做。所以累積貢獻利潤才是我們追求的。我們總是試圖找到與事實相符的切線點——直到競選活動實際上變成負回報的程度。到目前為止,團隊一直非常努力。事實上,我們已經嘗試過花錢去吸引可自由支配的客戶,但目前這並不是一個高投資回報率的努力。所以我們並不是真的追求這一點,因為我們寧願保持推動重複購買的質量。否則,您永遠無法真正擺脫客戶流失和花錢留住客戶的惡性循環。

  • And so we are -- our engines, our performance marketing teams appropriately adjust to find the best customers, the best return across the best channel. And that is done on a daily, weekly, monthly basis, not on a quarterly basis. We were fairly responsive.

    所以我們——我們的引擎、我們的績效營銷團隊進行適當調整,以找到最好的客戶,通過最佳渠道獲得最佳回報。這是每天、每週、每月進行的,而不是每季度進行的。我們的反應相當積極。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Lee Horowitz with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lee Horowitz。

  • Lee Horowitz - Research Analyst

    Lee Horowitz - Research Analyst

  • Great. When you think about the consistent and challenged pet household growth environment, do you think that you need pet household to turn more meaningfully positive in order to return Chewy back to more meaningful -- meaningfully positive user growth in the medium term? And then maybe digging in, again, to these recently acquired a cohort in the platform and some of the costs that you were seeing amongst these users. Can you talk a bit more specifically on what maybe you're seeing from these cohorts in terms of repeat purchase rate, Autoship penetration, basket size relative to the cohort? Anything that these users are flagging to you as it's raising this degree of modest caution that leads you to believe maybe these users have structurally higher churn than your existing base.

    偉大的。當您考慮持續且充滿挑戰的寵物家庭增長環境時,您是否認為您需要寵物家庭變得更加積極積極,以便使 Chewy 在中期恢復更有意義的用戶增長?然後可能會再次深入了解最近在平台上獲得的一批用戶以及您在這些用戶中看到的一些成本。您能否更具體地談談您從這些群組中看到的重複購買率、自動發貨滲透率、相對於群組的購物籃大小等方面的情況?這些用戶向您標記的任何內容,因為它提高了這種程度的適度謹慎,使您相信這些用戶在結構上可能比您現有的用戶群具有更高的流失率。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure, sure. On the first question of, do we need them to turn more meaningfully positive? Well, there's certainly a factor. Household penetration is a factor and that it is an important input into the model. But it's not the -- it's not what we're really dependent on. In fact, for -- we -- our teams are progressing multiple features across chewy.com, which we expect. And this is all kind of in the back half, which will continue -- some of this will continue into next year per se. Our team is progressing multiple features across chewy.com, which we expect -- where we will expect to credibly reduce friction and lower conversion barriers in areas of, for example, account creation and improve both sign-up rates as well as customer retention, right? So some of these specific examples might be in areas of account creation, payments, our content platform, our CRM mechanisms, or we've talked about, which I will discuss more in detail at our next earnings call.

    一定一定。關於第一個問題,我們是否需要它們變得更有意義的積極?嗯,肯定有一個因素。家庭滲透率是一個因素,也是模型的重要輸入。但這不是我們真正依賴的。事實上,對於我們來說,我們的團隊正在chehy.com 上開發多項功能,這是我們所期望的。這一切都發生在後半段,並將持續下去——其中一些將持續到明年本身。我們的團隊正在chehy.com上開發多項功能,這是我們所期望的——我們希望在帳戶創建等領域可靠地減少摩擦並降低轉換障礙,並提高註冊率和客戶保留率,正確的?因此,其中一些具體示例可能涉及帳戶創建、支付、我們的內容平台、我們的 CRM 機制,或者我們已經討論過的領域,我將在下一次財報電話會議上更詳細地討論這些領域。

  • But we're super excited to talk to you about Chewy loyalty, which we're progressing for an early 2024 launch. So we're not sitting idle waiting for the macro to recover, right? It's just this notion of what cannot be cured has to be endured. So we're going to endure that. And at the same time, everything that is controllable in our -- on our side, which is improving experience and opening up net avenues to acquire and retain customers, we are absolutely focused on that.

    但我們非常高興能與您討論 Chewy 忠誠度,我們正在努力於 2024 年初推出該服務。所以我們不會閒著等待宏恢復,對吧?只是這種無法治癒的事情必須忍受的想法。所以我們要忍受這一點。與此同時,我們方面可控的一切,即改善體驗並開闢獲取和留住客戶的網絡渠道,我們絕對專注於這一點。

  • And then your second question was, with the more recent cohorts, what are you seeing on repeat order frequency? We're seeing their repeat order frequency that is essentially what I was mentioning earlier. Autoship penetration actually is fairly intact. Their basket sizes are slightly lowered because they are more value seeking. So obviously, there's an ASP compression that is taking place there. Their attach rates are slightly lower.

    然後你的第二個問題是,對於最近的同類,你在重複訂單頻率上看到了什麼?我們看到他們的重複訂單頻率基本上就是我之前提到的。自動駕駛滲透率實際上相當完好。他們的購物籃尺寸略有降低,因為他們更追求價值。很明顯,那裡正在進行 ASP 壓縮。他們的附加率略低。

  • So the units per order metric is where you will see that impact, which ultimately goes back and kind of talk to the basket size also. Repeat order frequency, they need a little more nudge relative to our kind of loyal customer bases. So we're just -- we're watching right now. And that's -- we've essentially baked that in into the guidance, and we're baking that in, into the guidance and we're baking that in, into the active customer adds forecast as well.

    因此,每個訂單的單位指標是您將看到這種影響的地方,這種影響最終會追溯到購物籃的大小。重複訂單頻率,相對於我們的忠實客戶群,他們需要更多的推動。所以我們現在就在觀察。那就是——我們基本上已經將其納入指南中,我們正在將其納入指南中,我們還將其納入活躍客戶的預測中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Steven Forbes with Guggenheim.

    我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆的史蒂文·福布斯。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • Sumit, Stacy, just 2 quick follow-ups, one on ownership and one on pharmacy. So first on ownership, Sumit, can you comment on how the average number of net ownership orders by customers within some of your more mature cohorts are trending relative to plan? And then on pharmacy, can you also talk about like how the customer journey for pharmacy customers has evolved over the years at this time to trial usage statistics, Autoship adoption and maybe most importantly, churn rates, right, among those customers that try and convert into pharmacy earlier in the life cycle.

    Sumit、Stacy,只有 2 個快速跟進,一個是關於所有權,一個是關於藥房。首先,關於所有權,Sumit,您能否評論一下您的一些更成熟群體中客戶的平均淨所有權訂單數量相對於計劃的趨勢?然後在藥房方面,您能否也談談這些年來藥房客戶的客戶旅程如何演變為試用使用統計數據、自動發貨採用率,也許最重要的是,在那些嘗試轉換的客戶中,流失率在生命週期的早期進入藥房。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Sure. I may not be able to satisfy your full curiosity relative to some of the metrics that you're asking. But I'll build your intuition generally in stating that Autoship continues to be more powerful in the way that it is accreting value for customers and passing that value on to customers. We've done that by, a, making sure that the assortment under Autoship is maximized. We've also done that by making sure that barriers to either Autoship conversion or Autoship retention, whether they may be payments related or whether they may be attach related have continued to be lowered. Our improvement in segmentation and targeting ability does allow us to speak with customers a little more meaningfully, and that will only get better in the future.

    當然。我可能無法滿足您對您所詢問的某些指標的全部好奇心。但我將總體上建立您的直覺,即自動發貨在為客戶增加價值並將該價值傳遞給客戶的方式上繼續變得更加強大。我們通過以下方式做到了這一點:a,確保自動發貨下的品種最大化。我們還通過確保自動發貨轉換或自動發貨保留的障礙(無論它們是否可能與付款相關或是否可能與附加相關)繼續降低來做到這一點。我們在細分和定位能力方面的改進確實使我們能夠更有意義地與客戶交談,並且在未來只會變得更好。

  • And then from a cohort development point of view, we've invested across our kind of discoverability and attach engines to make sure that customers not only discover complementary attach products, but are essentially attaching through them in a meaningful manner. So all of this is essentially leading to the incremental Autoship sales that you're looking at.

    然後,從隊列開發的角度來看,我們對可發現性和附加引擎進行了投資,以確保客戶不僅發現互補的附加產品,而且本質上以有意義的方式通過它們進行附加。因此,所有這些本質上都會導致您所看到的自動發貨銷售的增量。

  • Autoship -- the beauty of Autoship is, it is a very flexible program, and customers trust that they won't -- they both trust the flexibility, and they have come to trust the reliability that we put behind Autoship. And so it's a high-value program from that point of view, not only from a pricing point of view but also from an overall experience point of view.

    自動發貨——自動發貨的美妙之處在於,它是一個非常靈活的計劃,客戶相信他們不會——他們既信任靈活性,也開始信任我們在自動發貨背後提供的可靠性。因此,從這個角度來看,不僅從定價角度,而且從整體體驗角度來看,這是一個高價值的計劃。

  • On the Rx side, this is -- we believe we have the best health care experience that e-commerce can offer or that customers can find in the best of kind of retailers out there per se. So our metrics on pharmacy, our adoption -- Autoship adoption is even higher in pharmacy than it is in some of our other merged classes, our churn rate is lower, given how high a bar we have. And at the same time, we always have opportunity that we're working on to make sure that we get even better with products like these. So overall, we're excited about this vertical.

    在處方方面,我們相信我們擁有電子商務可以提供的最好的醫療保健體驗,或者客戶可以在最好的零售商那裡找到最好的醫療保健體驗。因此,我們對藥房的指標,我們的採用率——自動發貨在藥房的採用率甚至高於我們其他一些合併類別,考慮到我們的標準有多高,我們的流失率較低。與此同時,我們始終有機會努力確保我們在此類產品上做得更好。總的來說,我們對這個垂直領域感到興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question is from the line of Rick Patel with Raymond James.

    我們的最後一個問題來自里克·帕特爾和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Rakesh Babarbhai Patel - MD & Research Analyst

    Rakesh Babarbhai Patel - MD & Research Analyst

  • Can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of spending by cohort for those customers that are not new to Chewy. So I appreciate that [end back] is growing. But just as we think about how much customers are spending further along in their life cycle. I'm curious if you're seeing changes in that trend line.

    您能否談談您所看到的那些對 Chewy 不陌生的客戶按群組的支出情況。所以我很欣賞[結束返回]正在增長。但正如我們思考客戶在其生命週期中進一步花費了多少資金一樣。我很好奇您是否看到該趨勢線發生變化。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Yes, we are. We absolutely are. In fact, our -- like our more recent cohorts are slightly as we've kind of mentioned on this call, they require a little more nudging but the NSPAC development curves through our older cohort. If you look at the 3 main factors of NSPAC development, right, cohort maturity leads the way, right, followed by kind of the other two, which is a combination of Autoship plus health and other merged classes kind of mixing it per se. So without kind of talking to specific numbers, hopefully, that's enough intuition building if not happy to take a double click.

    是的我們是。我們絕對是。事實上,我們的——就像我們最近的隊列有點像我們在這次電話會議中提到的那樣,他們需要更多的推動,但 NSPAC 發展曲線通過我們較老的隊列。如果你看看 NSPAC 發展的 3 個主要因素,對吧,隊列成熟度領先,對吧,其次是其他兩個因素,這是 Autoship 加上健康和其他合併類別本身的組合。因此,如果不樂意雙擊的話,希望無需談論具體數字,就可以建立足夠的直覺。

  • Rakesh Babarbhai Patel - MD & Research Analyst

    Rakesh Babarbhai Patel - MD & Research Analyst

  • Great. And can you also talk about your go-to-market strategy for Canada? How are new customers going to learn about Chewy and how are they going to experience the brand. And anything to think about in terms of marketing spend over the next couple of quarters as you ramp in Toronto?

    偉大的。您能否談談您在加拿大的市場推廣策略?新客戶將如何了解 Chewy 以及他們將如何體驗該品牌。當您在多倫多擴張時,在接下來的幾個季度的營銷支出方面有什麼需要考慮的嗎?

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Yes, sure. So this is -- this is -- we're very excited about this. We are going to -- I think the -- the punch line here is that we will -- our aspiration is to show up in Canada as a Canadian brand, not as an American brand that -- and so essentially, what you should hear in that statement is, we will -- we are going to try and turn the customers, their needs, their wants, their desires, their behaviors and then model the offering in a manner that appeals to them in the best possible manner. That, by the way, is also the most efficient way to market to customers and the most efficient -- and a way of keeping our cost minimalized per se.

    是的,當然。所以這是——這是——我們對此感到非常興奮。我們將——我認為——這裡的妙語是我們將——我們的願望是作為一個加拿大品牌而不是一個美國品牌出現在加拿大——所以本質上,你應該聽到什麼在該聲明中,我們將嘗試轉變客戶、他們的需求、他們的慾望、他們的願望、他們的行為,然後以盡可能吸引他們的方式對產品進行建模。順便說一句,這也是向客戶進行營銷的最有效方式,也是最有效的方式,也是將我們的成本本身降至最低的方式。

  • We're going to be much more focused on delivering the experience through a trusted proven mechanisms that we have here in the United States. Those we do believe carry over pretty nicely. I was in the Canadian market with the rest of the senior leadership team a few weeks ago, sort of walking in the stores and the experience all the way from our fulfillment side to the delivery side to the end market. And we're excited. There's going to be a ton to learn here. We're going to try and self-fund a bunch of this, and at the same time, where there are investments required, we'll be upfront and candid about them. So overall, we're looking for high-quality growth, not dilutive growth here.

    我們將更加專注於通過我們在美國擁有的值得信賴且經過驗證的機制來提供體驗。我們確實相信那些可以很好地延續下去。幾週前,我與高級領導團隊的其他成員一起在加拿大市場,走在商店裡,體驗從我們的履行端到交付端再到終端市場的整個過程。我們很興奮。這裡有很多東西需要學習。我們將嘗試自籌資金,同時,如果需要投資,我們將坦誠地進行說明。因此,總的來說,我們在這裡尋求的是高質量增長,而不是稀釋性增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, Mr. Patel. That is all the time we have for questions. I will now turn the call over to Sumit for any closing remarks.

    謝謝你,帕特爾先生。這就是我們提問的全部時間。我現在將把電話轉給蘇米特,請他發表結束語。

  • Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

    Sumit Singh - CEO & Director

  • Thank you very much. Just want to welcome Stacy again, and wish everybody a nice evening. Thank you.

    非常感謝。只是想再次歡迎史黛西,並祝大家度過一個美好的夜晚。謝謝。

  • Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

    Stacy Bowman - Interim CFO, CAO, VP & Corporate Controller

  • Thanks, everyone.

    感謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's Chewy Second Quarter Fiscal Year '23 Earnings Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    今天耐嚼的 '23 財年第二季度收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。