CF工業控股 (CF) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CF Industries first half and second quarter of 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 CF Industries 2025 年上半年和第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the presentation over to the host for today. Mr. Martin Jarosick with CF Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.

現在我想把演講交給今天的主持人。CF 投資者關係部的 Martin Jarosick 先生。先生，請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Tony Will, President and CEO; Chris Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Bert Frost, Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain; and Greg Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. CF Industries reported its results for the first half and second quarter of 2025 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook and then host a question-and-answer session.

早安，感謝您參加 CF Industries 收益電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有總裁兼首席執行官托尼·威爾 (Tony Will)、執行副總裁兼首席營運官克里斯·博恩 (Chris Bohn)、銷售、市場開發和供應鏈執行副總裁伯特·弗羅斯特 (Bert Frost) 以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官格雷格·卡梅倫 (Greg Cameron)。CF Industries 昨天下午公佈了 2025 年上半年和第二季的業績。在這次電話會議上，我們將回顧結果，討論我們的展望，然後主持問答環節。

Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you'll find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website.

本次電話會議和我們網站上的演示中所作的非歷史事實的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並非對未來表現的保證，並且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。因此，實際結果可能與任何陳述中表達或暗示的內容有重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件，這些文件可在我們的網站上查閱。此外，您還可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿和簡報中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對帳。

Now let me introduce Tony Will.

現在讓我來介紹一下托尼威爾。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the first half of 2025 in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion. These results reflect outstanding operational performance by the CF Industries team against the backdrop of a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance. We are also executing well on our strategic initiatives. The Donaldsonville Carbon Capture and Sequestration Project began operating in early July and is running at designed rates and progress on the new Blue Point joint venture is well underway.

謝謝，馬丁，大家早安。昨天下午，我們公佈了 2025 年上半年的業績，其中調整後的 EBITDA 為 14 億美元。這些結果反映了 CF Industries 團隊在全球氮氣供需緊張的背景下出色的營運表現。我們的策略措施也執行得很好。唐納森維爾碳捕獲與封存項目於 7 月初開始運營，目前運行速度符合設計要求，新的 Blue Point 合資企業也正在順利推進。

And we continue to return substantial capital to shareholders.

我們將繼續向股東返還大量資本。

Over the last 12 months, we have returned approximately $2 billion. This includes repurchasing more than 10% of our outstanding shares since last July. Given our world-class operating performance, the favorable global nitrogen industry dynamics, the financial benefits we generate from our strategic initiatives and our ongoing capital return programs, we are well positioned to create value for shareholders over both the near and longer terms.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們已經歸還了大約 20 億美元。其中包括自去年 7 月以來回購超過 10% 的流通股。鑑於我們世界一流的營運績效、有利的全球氮氣產業動態、我們從策略性舉措和正在進行的資本回報計畫中獲得的財務利益，我們完全有能力在短期和長期為股東創造價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Chris to provide more details on our operating results. Chris?

接下來，我將把時間交給克里斯，讓他提供更多有關我們經營績效的細節。克里斯？

Thanks, Tony. For the first half of 2025, we continue to differentiate CF Industries from peers through safety and operational excellence. We had three recordable incidents in the first six months of 2025 and zero loss time days. This is particularly impressive given our scale and level of activity in the first half. Through the end of June, we produced 5.2 million tons of gross ammonia, representing a 99% utilization rate.

謝謝，托尼。2025 年上半年，我們將繼續透過安全和卓越的營運使 CF Industries 在同業中脫穎而出。2025 年上半年，我們發生了三起可記錄事故，且損失工時為零天數。考慮到我們上半年的活動規模和水平，這一點尤其令人印象深刻。截至6月底，我們生產了總計520萬噸氨，利用率為99％。

For the full year, we expect to produce approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia. The third quarter, as is typical for CF will have lower production volumes in the first two quarters due to planned maintenance activity.

預計全年總氨產量約1000萬噸。由於計劃中的維護活動，第三季度的產量與前兩個季度相比有所下降，這對於 CF 來說很正常。

Turning to our strategic initiatives. We started up our Donaldsonville Complex Carbon Capture and Sequestration Project in July. The carbon dioxide dehydration and compression unit has ramped up very well and we achieved full nameplate capacity within the first week. In addition to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by up to 2 million metric tons per year or earn a significant return from this project. We are generating 45Q tax credits and selling low-carbon ammonia for a premium.

談到我們的策略舉措。我們於七月啟動了唐納森維爾綜合碳捕獲和封存計畫。二氧化碳脫水和壓縮裝置已順利投入使用，我們在第一週就達到了滿載生產能力。除了每年減少高達200萬公噸的二氧化碳排放量外，還能從該專案中獲得可觀的回報。我們正在產生 45Q 稅收抵免並以溢價出售低碳氨。

For the Blue Point project, we, along with JERA and Mitsui, have been building out the project team and have begun ordering long lead time items. We also continue to evaluate opportunities to further derisk the project by leveraging best-in-class capabilities. For example, the joint venture signed an agreement with industry leader, Linde, to build and operate the air separation unit which will supply nitrogen and oxygen for the ammonia production process. We remain excited about the compelling growth opportunity at Blue Point, given the tightening of the global nitrogen supply-demand balance, and the interest that has been generated in the ultra low carbon ammonia that will be produced there.

對於 Blue Point 項目，我們與 JERA 和三井一起組建了項目團隊，並已開始訂購長交貨期產品。我們也將持續評估利用一流能力進一步降低專案風險的機會。例如，合資企業與業界領導者林德簽署協議，建造和營運空氣分離裝置，為氨生產過程提供氮氣和氧氣。鑑於全球氮供需平衡的收緊，以及人們對在那裡生產的超低碳氨的興趣，我們仍然對藍點引人注目的成長機會感到興奮。

With that, let me turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market. Bert?

說到這裡，讓我把話題交給伯特來討論全球氮氣市場。伯特？

Thanks, Chris. throughout the first half of 2025, the global nitrogen supply-demand balance continued to tighten. Strong global nitrogen demand led by North America and India had to contend with low global nitrogen inventories and production disruptions in key supply regions. This included geopolitical events late in the second quarter that temporarily halted production in Egypt and Iran, as well as two facilities in Russia. CF Industries team navigated these dynamics exceptionally well, especially as the North American spring application season lasted longer than normal.

謝謝，克里斯。 2025 年上半年，全球氮供需平衡持續收緊。以北美和印度為主導的全球強勁氮需求不得不應對全球氮庫存低和主要供應地區生產中斷的問題。其中包括第二季末的地緣政治事件，導致埃及和伊朗以及俄羅斯的兩家工廠的生產暫時停止。CF Industries 團隊出色地應對了這些動態，尤其是在北美春季申請季節比正常時間更長的情況下。

Backed by a strong production we leveraged our leading logistics and distribution capabilities to capture incremental opportunities well into July.

在強大生產能力的支持下，我們利用領先的物流和分銷能力在 7 月抓住了增量機會。

For example, last month, we continue to make spot UAN sales at in-season prices, as supply from other sources was largely unavailable after the strong spring application season. As a result, our UAN inventory at the end of June was the lowest we have seen entering the third quarter in the last decade. This led us to delay our UAN fill program until next week, which is the latest we have ever launched. The delay has given us time to better understand customer requirements and communicate that fill prices will be significantly higher than 2024, given the tight global supply-demand balance.

例如，上個月，我們繼續以當季價格進行現貨 UAN 銷售，因為在春季應用旺季過後，其他來源的供應基本上已經無法取得。因此，我們六月底的 UAN 庫存是過去十年進入第三季以來的最低水準。這導致我們將 UAN 填充計劃推遲到下週，這是我們推出的最晚時間。延遲使我們有時間更了解客戶需求，並告知我們，鑑於全球供需平衡緊張，填充價格將遠高於 2024 年。

Farmer economics in North America have been an industry concern as the price of corn has not kept up with the price of inputs. However, we expect nitrogen demand in the region to remain robust. The corn to soybean ratio favors corn and farmers will be incentivized to optimize yield, supporting resilient demand for this nondiscretionary nutrient. In fact, our ammonia fill and fall prepay programs which were closed at the beginning of July, saw a strong uptake from customers. In the near and medium term, we believe the global nitrogen supply and demand balance will remain tight.

由於玉米價格跟不上投入價格的上漲，北美農民的經濟狀況一直是業界關注的問題。然而，我們預計該地區的氮需求仍將保持強勁。玉米與大豆的比例對玉米有利，農民將有動力優化產量，從而支持對這種非自由支配營養素的彈性需求。事實上，我們在七月初結束的氨水填充和秋季預付費計畫得到了客戶的強烈歡迎。我們認為，近期和中期內，全球氮肥供需平衡仍將保持緊張。

Global nitrogen inventory is low and the global demand is expected to be strong. Brazil and India alone are likely to require more than 8 million metric tons of urea imports through the end of the year, while the Northern Hemisphere, which will begin purchasing for 2026 applications.

全球氮肥庫存量低，預計全球需求強勁。到今年年底，光是巴西和印度就可能需要進口超過 800 萬噸尿素，而北半球將開始購買 2026 年所需的尿素。

The global industry, even with the needed urea exports from China does not have excess capacity to easily meet this demand. In fact, India closed its most recent tender at a price much higher than expected. Additionally, natural gas availability in Egypt, Iran and Trinidad has become chronic problems for their nitrogen industries. And the high natural gas prices in Europe and Asia continue to challenge nitrogen producer margins in those regions. These structural challenges are further exacerbated by the uncertainty created by geopolitical events.

即使中國出口所需的尿素，全球產業也沒有多餘的產能來輕鬆滿足這項需求。事實上，印度最近一次招標的成交價格遠高於預期。此外，埃及、伊朗和特立尼達的天然氣供應已成為其氮肥工業的長期問題。歐洲和亞洲的高天然氣價格繼續對這些地區的氮氣生產商的利潤構成挑戰。地緣政治事件造成的不確定性進一步加劇了這些結構性挑戰。

Longer term, we expect the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to tighten further through the end of the decade as projected, new capacity growth is not keeping pace with demand growth for traditional fertilizer and industrial applications.

從長遠來看，我們預計到本世紀末全球氮肥供需平衡將進一步收緊，因為新產能成長預計將跟不上傳統肥料和工業應用需求的成長。

We also believe demand for low carbon ammonia for new applications, such as power generation, will only further tighten the global supply-demand balance. We are seeing this transition now. With the Donaldsonville CCS project operational, we will ship our first cargo of low-carbon ammonia in the coming weeks and at a premium. We have steady demand today and growing interest in Donaldsonville low-carbon pneumonia volumes for new applications in addition to the longer-term demand for ultra-low carbon volumes from Blue Point.

我們也認為，發電等新應用對低碳氨的需求只會進一步收緊全球供需平衡。我們現在正在見證這種轉變。隨著唐納森維爾 CCS 項目的投入運營，我們將在未來幾週內以溢價方式運送第一批低碳氨。目前，我們對唐納森維爾低碳肺炎捲的新應用有著穩定的需求，並且興趣日益濃厚，此外，對藍點超低碳捲的長期需求也日益增長。

With that, Greg will cover our financial performance.

接下來，格雷格將介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Bert. For the first half of 2025, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $698 million or $4.20 per diluted share. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were both approximately $1.4 billion. For the second quarter of 2025, we reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $386 million or $2.37 per diluted share. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were both approximately $760 million.

謝謝，伯特。2025 年上半年，該公司報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤為 6.98 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 4.20 美元。EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 均約為 14 億美元。2025 年第二季度，我們報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨利為 3.86 億美元，即每股稀釋收益 2.37 美元。EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 均約為 7.6 億美元。

As you will recall, we have begun consolidating the Blue Point joint venture into our financial statements. This is reflected in both our first half and in second quarter 2025 financial reporting. On a trailing 12-month basis, net cash from operations was $2.5 billion and free cash flow was $1.7 billion. This includes a net benefit in the second quarter from the Blue Point project as capital contributions from our joint venture partners exceeded the project's capital expenditures. This will be the case for some time as we build cash in the joint venture ahead of expenditures.

您可能還記得，我們​​已經開始將 Blue Point 合資企業合併到我們的財務報表中。這反映在我們的 2025 年上半年和第二季的財務報告中。過去 12 個月，經營活動產生的淨現金為 25 億美元，自由現金流為 17 億美元。這包括第二季來自 Blue Point 專案的淨收益，因為我們合資夥伴的資本貢獻超過了該專案的資本支出。由於我們在支出之前在合資企業中累積了現金，這種情況將持續一段時間。

We returned approximately $280 million to shareholders in the second quarter of 2025, including $202 million to repurchase 2.8 million shares. We remain committed to a balanced capital allocation strategy, investing in growth through the Blue Point joint venture while returning substantial capital to our shareholders.

我們在 2025 年第二季向股東返還了約 2.8 億美元，其中包括 2.02 億美元用於回購 280 萬股。我們將持續致力於均衡的資本配置策略，透過青鋒合資投資成長，同時向股東返還大量資本。

With the nitrogen and oxygen agreements with Linde that Chris mentioned, the cost of the Blue Point project is expected to be $3.7 billion. CF Industries portion of the project along with the wholly owned common facilities, is expected to total approximately $2 billion over the next four years. Over that same time frame, we have $2.4 billion authorized for share repurchases. We expect to complete the $425 million remaining on the current authorization before the end of the year. At that point, we will begin the $2 billion authorization.

加上克里斯提到的與林德公司簽訂的氮氣和氧氣協議，藍點計畫的成本預計為 37 億美元。 CF該項目的工業部分以及全資擁有的公共設施預計在未來四年內總額將達到約 20 億美元。在同一時間段內，我們已授權 24 億美元用於股票回購。我們預計將在今年年底前完成目前授權中剩餘的 4.25 億美元。屆時，我們將開始授權20億美元。

Finally, with the start-up of the Donaldsonville CCS project, we will deliver incremental EBITDA and free cash flow beginning of the third quarter. We expect EBITDA and free cash flow to be north of $100 million annually from the tax incentives and product premiums. This is a significant step towards the 2030 mid-cycle projections we shared at Investor Day of $3 billion in EBITDA and $2 billion in free cash flow.

最後，隨著唐納森維爾 CCS 計畫的啟動，我們將在第三季初實現增量 EBITDA 和自由現金流。我們預計，受稅收優惠和產品溢價的影響，EBITDA 和自由現金流每年將超過 1 億美元。這是朝著我們在投資者日分享的 2030 年中期預測邁出的重要一步，即 EBITDA 達到 30 億美元，自由現金流達到 20 億美元。

With that, Tony will provide some closing remarks before we open the call to Q&A.

在我們開始問答環節之前，Tony 將發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Greg. Before we move on to your questions, I want to thank the entire CF team for their contributions to an outstanding first half of 2025. We are delivering world-class operational performance across all aspects of our business. and most importantly, doing so safely.

謝謝，格雷格。在回答您的問題之前，我想感謝整個 CF 團隊為 2025 年上半年的出色表現所做的貢獻。我們在業務的各個方面都實現了世界一流的營運績效，最重要的是，我們安全地完成了這些工作。

I want to acknowledge Ashraf Malik, our Senior Vice President of Manufacturing and Distribution, who recently announced his intention to retire in the spring of 2026. I recruited Ashraf into CF from our GrowHow joint venture in 2011. He was my right-hand person when I ran manufacturing as he also was for Chris when he ran it. Appropriately, Ashraf took over as Head of Manufacturing when Chris moved into the CFO role in 2019. Ashraf is an experienced leader who has helped drive our culture of safety and operational excellence.

我要感謝我們的製造和分銷高級副總裁阿什拉夫·馬利克 (Ashraf Malik)，他最近宣布打算在 2026 年春季退休。2011 年，我從 GrowHow 合資企業招募了 Ashraf 加入 CF。當我管理製造業時，他是我的得力助手，正如當克里斯管理製造業時，他也是他的得力助手。恰如其分的是，當克里斯於 2019 年出任財務長時，阿什拉夫接任了製造主管一職。阿什拉夫是一位經驗豐富的領導者，他幫助推動了我們的安全和卓越營運文化。

We're fortunate to have him with us for the next nine months, but I do want to take this opportunity to personally thank him for his many contributions and to congratulate him on a tremendous career.

我們很榮幸在接下來的九個月裡有他陪伴我們，但我確實想藉此機會親自感謝他的諸多貢獻，並祝賀他取得的輝煌成就。

Although CF Industries has been around for almost 80 years. In a couple of days, we'll be marking the 20th anniversary of our company's IPO. Over the last 20 years, CF Industries has built an extraordinary high-margin, focused business where we consistently execute at the highest levels, a global leader in every sense of the word. Our balanced approach to capital allocation, driving disciplined growth while executing consistent share repurchases has increased shareholder participation in our assets and the cash flow they generate.

儘管 CF Industries 已經存在了近 80 年。再過幾天，我們就將迎來公司首次公開發行 (IPO) 20 週年紀念日。在過去的 20 年裡，CF Industries 建立了利潤率極高、專注度極高的業務，我們始終以最高水準執行，在各方面都是全球領先者。我們採取均衡的資本配置方法，在持續回購股票的同時推動有紀律的成長，增加了股東對我們資產的參與度及其產生的現金流。

As you can see on slide 13, we have driven a nearly threefold increase in nitrogen capacity per share since 2010 and this approach has led to superior shareholder return compared to all industry participants and even broader comparison groups. CF Industries is well positioned to build on this track record in the years ahead. In the near and medium term, industry dynamics remain very favorable for our low-cost North American production network. Longer term, we are investing in much-needed low-carbon ammonia capacity and have $2.4 billion authorized for continued share repurchases. Taken together, we expect to continue to drive strong cash generation and create substantial shareholder value.

正如您在第 13 張投影片上看到的，自 2010 年以來，我們已將每股氮氣產能提高了近三倍，與所有行業參與者甚至更廣泛的比較組相比，這種方法帶來了更高的股東回報。CF Industries 已做好準備，在未來幾年繼續鞏固這一業績記錄。從短期和中期來看，產業動態對我們的低成本北美生產網路仍然非常有利。從長遠來看，我們正在投資急需的低碳氨產能，並已授權 24 億美元用於繼續回購股票。總的來說，我們預計將繼續推動強勁的現金產生並創造巨大的股東價值。

With that, operator, we will now open the call to your questions.

接線員，現在我們將開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）富國銀行的理查德·加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

You're progressing on the Blue Points, obviously, we've consolidated results. My question is on the outlook for returns. Obviously, we had the Big Beautiful Bill come out. I think there's some treatment of depreciation, which may be changing. Can you talk about how that impacts potentially the return calculations and how that may impact taxes from Blue Point and CCS?

您在藍點方面取得了進展，顯然，我們已經鞏固了成果。我的問題是關於回報前景。顯然，我們讓「大美人比爾」出場了。我認為對折舊的一些處理方式可能會改變。您能否談談這可能會對回報計算產生什麼影響，以及這可能會對 Blue Point 和 CCS 的稅收產生什麼影響？

Yes. So it's Greg. I'll take that one first. So when we look at the joint venture, there's a number of items that are going to run through that P&L from the tax side that we're going to need to be coordinated with our JV partners on it. Not only will our depreciation of the assets be important, the timing of the earnings to make sure we're maintaining our basis in the assets as well as the monetization of the 45Q credit.

是的。原來是格雷格啊。我先拿那個。因此，當我們審視合資企業時，從稅務角度來看，有許多項目將貫穿損益表，我們需要與合資夥伴進行協調。不僅資產的折舊很重要，獲利的時機也很重要，以確保我們維持資產的基礎以及 45Q 信貸的貨幣化。

So we're in the process with our partners and with our advisers of modeling out those different variables. But what I can tell you, in particular, too, as we look at the depreciation, what we had in our original expectation within the model was already on an accelerated basis. So if you get to day 1 complete amortization, depreciation of the assets, we don't expect it to materially change the overall returns of the project that we've shared with you before. But we'll continue to model that out over the next few years and make sure that we understand how all these variables interplay against each other.

因此，我們正在與合作夥伴和顧問一起對這些不同的變數進行建模。但我還可以告訴你們，特別是，當我們看貶值時，我們在模型中最初的預期已經是加速的了。因此，如果您在第一天完成攤銷和資產折舊，我們預計它不會實質地改變我們先前與您分享的項目的整體回報。但我們將在未來幾年繼續對此進行建模，並確保我們了解所有這些變數是如何相互作用的。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

I mean, Tony, just kind of when you look forward into 2026 and beyond, I mean, again, given where crop prices are and where fertilizer prices are like what are you thinking there? I mean, again, kind of there's a disconnect between prices and put cost for farmers. So how do you see that develop over the course of next year?

我的意思是，東尼，當你展望 2026 年及以後時，我的意思是，再次考慮到農作物價格和化肥價格，你在想什麼？我的意思是，價格和農民的成本之間存在著脫節。那麼您認為明年的情況會如何發展呢？

Good morning Edlain, this is Bert. And that is the question in the industry today, is how does the farmer solve the calculus of planting and at the end, profitability. Fertilizer represents about 25% of the input costs for a crop. And so nitrogen, even less so of that 25%, then you've got diesel equipment, crop insurance, feed, crop protection. And the big question is land rent and land value.

早安，艾德萊恩，我是伯特。這就是當今產業面臨的問題：農民如何解決種植和最終獲利的計算。肥料約佔農作物投入成本的25%。因此，氮的比例甚至低於 25%，然後是柴油設備、作物保險、飼料、作物保護。其中最大的問題是土地租金和土地價值。

The majority of farmers today are renting a portion of some places all of their land and at $200, $300, $400 an acre, that's where the push has to come, we believe in that calculus. We're a global product, globally traded, globally moved, globally valued product in the context of urea, UAN and ammonia. And so we compete for imports and exports with the world.

如今，大多數農民都將自己的全部土地出租給某些地方的一部分，租金為每英畝 200 美元、300 美元或 400 美元，這就是推動力所在，我們相信這種計算。在尿素、UAN 和氨領域，我們是全球產品，全球交易，全球運輸，全球估價的產品。因此，我們與世界各國競爭進出口。

And so the US farmer in the same vein for corn, soybean, cotton, wheat, whatever product has to compete, and I think it will be some economizing with different subparts of that calculus that I gave. But nitrogen is the nondiscretionary nutrient and will have to be applied. And I think then farmers plant and apply for yield, and they earn their way out of this difficult market.

因此，美國農民在玉米、大豆、棉花、小麥等任何產品上都要參與競爭，我認為這將是我給出的計算的不同部分的一些節約。但氮是不可自由支配的營養物質，必須施用。我認為，農民種植作物，獲得產量，他們就能擺脫這個困難的市場。

Bert, I totally agree on that, which is, I think once you've gone through the -- all of the other expenses that you talked about, you are going to go ahead and try to optimize yield because it's the last couple of bushels that will actually make the difference in terms of profitability or not. And so at least with respect to nitrogen, we continue to see and expect full application rates because that's really how you're going to get profitable. It's not trying to save a couple of bucks by reducing your nitrogen application. Now P&K is a different story, but at least nitrogen, we expect to go down.

伯特，我完全同意這一點，也就是說，我認為一旦你經歷了 - 你談到的所有其他費用，你將繼續嘗試優化產量，因為最後幾蒲式耳實際上會對盈利能力產生影響。因此，至少就氮而言，我們繼續看到並期待全面應用率，因為這才是真正獲得獲利的方式。這並不是想透過減少氮施用來節省幾塊錢。現在 P&K 的情況有所不同，但至少我們預期氮氣含量會下降。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Can you talk about a report that came out yesterday around the time you reported, it seems like maybe if it's true, you've got a few days or a week of no loading happening at D'ville. Is that about demand, but your -- you had a huge quarter, of course in Q2, volume is so good, demand so good, you're out of inventory. Does that speak about the strong dynamic for yourselves market? Is there any production problems and you can elaborate?

您能否談談昨天發布的一份報告，該報告與您報告的時間大致相同，如果這是真的，那麼 D'ville 可能會有幾天或一周的時間無法裝載貨物。這是關於需求的問題嗎，但是你的——你有一個季度的業績非常出色，當然是在第二季度，銷量非常好，需求也非常好，以至於你的庫存已經用完了。這是否說明你們的市場活力十足？是否有任何生產問題？能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes. So Joel, this is Chris. I'll start. So the report was incorrect in the sense that it said that it was an operational issue with our loading at the Donaldsonville facility. We continue to have full access to loading production and utilization there, as you can see in the second quarter, continues to be outstanding.

是的。喬爾，這是克里斯。我先開始。因此，該報告是不正確的，因為它說這是我們在唐納森維爾工廠裝貨時的操作問題。我們繼續全面訪問那裡的裝載生產和利用情況，正如您在第二季度看到的那樣，情況仍然非常出色。

I'm going to let Bert talk to some of the inventory levels and some of the customer direction that we've done that was probably more the source of that than it was operational.

我將讓伯特談談一些庫存水準和我們所做的一些客戶指導，這些可能更多的是原因而不是營運方面的原因。

Several figures for issues at play, Joel, with the dynamic nature of this spring application. And in the summer, we just did not have the inventory due to high demand in some of the previous remarks of being one of the last companies standing with available supply. So every day, we had full. And in Donaldsonville, this is a reflection of team dynamics and discussion on how we work collaboratively, but the urea product manager, along with production and allocation and logistics folks work together. We had 2,000 tons of inventory yesterday.

喬爾，有幾個數字顯示了這個春季應用的動態特性。而在夏季，由於需求量很大，我們沒有足夠的庫存，正如之前所說，我們是最後幾家有現貨供應的公司之一。所以每天，我們都吃得很飽。在唐納森維爾，這反映了團隊活力和我們如何協同工作的討論，但尿素產品經理與生產和分配以及物流人員一起工作。我們昨天有2000噸庫存。

We produced 7,500 tons per day at Donaldsonville and when you throw in Port Neal and Medicine now, we produced about 14,000 tonnes a day.

我們在唐納森維爾每天生產 7,500 噸，如果加上尼爾港和梅迪辛哈特，我們每天的產量約為 14,000 噸。

So to have that low of an inventory, and you're loading four to six barges a day at 1,500 tonnes per barge you want to have inventory for consistent and reliable loading. So this was just a reflection of team coming together, making a decision and saying, let's build the inventory over the weekend, and then we'll be able to load barges more seamlessly as being sporadic. That's just good management and safe management for the team.

因此，為了保持如此低的庫存，並且每天要裝載四到六艘駁船，每艘駁船的裝載量為 1,500 噸，您需要擁有能夠持續可靠裝載的庫存。所以這只是團隊齊心協力、做出決定並說讓我們在周末建立庫存的體現，然後我們就能更無縫地裝載駁船。對團隊來說，這只是良好的管理和安全的管理。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

瑞銀的盧卡斯·博蒙特。

Is there saw some cost pressure in the first half this year, both like on SG&A and your controllable non-gas production costs, which were both sort of higher year-on-year. So could you please just kind of talk us through what the drivers were there, if there's anything that was kind of more onetime and kind of think about the trajectory there going forward into the second half of next year?

今年上半年是否存在一些成本壓力，例如銷售、一般及行政費用以及可控非天然氣生產成本，這些成本較去年同期都有所上升。那麼，您能否向我們簡單介紹當時的驅動因素，以及是否存在一些更具一次性因素，並思考一下明年下半年的發展軌跡？

Yes, I'll start, and then I'll pass it to Chris. So let's start with SG&A. Listen, I've been here now 13 months and continue to be impressed by the organizational structure we have and the operating efficiencies that the business has. And when I compare our SG&A to any benchmark in the industry, we are a very lean organization. So any small movements in the number will -- small number will move that number on a percentage basis. This is specific to the quarter and specific to the second quarter, there was two discrete items to talk about.

是的，我先開始，然後我會把它傳給克里斯。那麼就讓我們從銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 開始吧。聽著，我來這裡已經 13 個月了，我們現有的組織結構和業務的營運效率一直給我留下了深刻的印象。當我將我們的銷售、一般和行政費用與行業內的任何基準進行比較時，我們會發現我們是一個非常精簡的組織。因此，數字上的任何小幅變動都會 — — 小數字都會以百分比為基礎改變該數字。這是針對本季和第二季的具體情況，有兩個獨立的事項需要討論。

One was around our legal fees associated with us closing our Blue Point joint venture, not only with the partner, but all the other agreements we had to put in place. That was about half of the difference versus last year. And the second part of the difference was almost all of the employees here at CF are on some type of variable compensation. And given what we're seeing from the operating performance of the company, as well as the market pricing that is there we made an adjustment within the quarter for our expectation and how that variable incentive will pay out in the year. So those are the two main items that explain the SG&A difference year over year.

其中之一是與我們關閉 Blue Point 合資企業相關的法律費用，不僅包括與合作夥伴的費用，還包括我們必須達成的所有其他協議的費用。與去年相比，這一差異大約是一半。差異的第二部分是 CF 的幾乎所有員工都享有某種類型的浮動薪酬。根據我們所看到的公司經營業績以及市場定價，我們在本季對我們的預期以及年度可變激勵的支付方式進行了調整。因此，這是解釋銷售、一般及行政費用逐年差異的兩個主要因素。

And as you think about it going forward, third quarter, fourth quarter probably look more similar to what we saw within the first quarter.

展望未來，第三季和第四季的情況可能與我們在第一季看到的情況更為相似。

Now on the cost side, I'll let Chris talk to it in particular, but just to make a couple of points as we try to analyze it. One, and you're right to do it ex gas, when you look at any 90-day period within the company, it's going to be impacted by timing of maintenance, either planned or unplanned. So we tend to look at things over a longer period of time. If I look at it over the first half, in fact, our controllable costs were down minimally low single digits versus last year. If you look at it, in particular, on the second quarter, you remember in the first quarter of last year, we had maintenance events associated with weather that drove an acceleration of our maintenance from the second quarter into the first quarter.

現在，在成本方面，我將讓克里斯特別談談這個問題，但在我們嘗試分析它時，我只想提出幾點。首先，就天然氣而言，您這樣做是對的，當您查看公司內的任何 90 天期間時，它都會受到計劃內或計劃外維護時間的影響。因此我們傾向於從更長遠的角度看待事物。事實上，如果我看一下上半年的情況，我們的可控成本與去年相比下降了至少個位數。如果你看一下，特別是第二季度，你會記得在去年第一季度，我們發生了與天氣相關的維護事件，這導致我們的維護從第二季度加速到第一季。

So if I look at the variance in the second quarter of 2025, it has more to do with what happened in 2024 than '25. In fact, first quarter to second quarter, when you adjust for maintenance events is fairly similar.

因此，如果我看一下 2025 年第二季的差異，它與 2024 年發生的事情的關係比與 2025 年發生的事情的關係更大。事實上，當您調整維護事件時，第一季和第二季的情況相當相似。

Yes. And just to add on to that. So as Greg mentioned, we do look at a longer time frame because it could just be timing when something hits. But during the quarter, we had really two events that drove up some of that controllable cost, and one was unplanned outages at a couple of facilities, even though we had very high utilization throughout the rest of the network, there were two facilities that had some extended unplanned downtime.

是的。再補充一點。正如格雷格所提到的，我們確實會考慮更長的時間範圍，因為這可能只是某件事發生的時間。但在本季度，我們確實發生了兩起事件，導致部分可控成本上升，一是一些設施發生意外停機，儘管我們整個網路的其餘部分的利用率很高，但仍有兩處設施出現了延長的意外停機時間。

And what that resulted in bringing it back to what Bert talked about with tight inventory, we had tight inventory at all our locations. And as a result, to meet some of the customer commitments we had, we had increased logistics costs, making those moves in order to service and provide the customers with their products. So a little bit some unplanned outages and then also the logistical moves, just given how tight inventory is in the industry.

這導致我們又回到了伯特所說的庫存緊張的問題，我們所有地點的庫存都很緊張。因此，為了履行對客戶的一些承諾，我們增加了物流成本，採取這些措施是為了為客戶提供服務和產品。因此，考慮到行業庫存緊張，可能會出現一些計劃外的停機和物流變動。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

On the DCS project, you talked about $100 million benefit. And I think I get that, there's an $85 a ton tax credit and maybe it's costing you $35 a ton for various isolations of the CO2. And so that gets you to an annualized rate of $100 million. In general, these are tax credits. When does the cash come in?

關於DCS項目，您談到了1億美元的收益。我想我明白了，每噸有 85 美元的稅收抵免，但對於各種二氧化碳的隔離，每噸可能要花費 35 美元。這樣，年化報酬率就達到了 1 億美元。一般來說，這些都是稅收抵免。現金什麼時候到帳？

And how do you account for it? That is you take the tax credits on an ongoing basis. When do you get paid from the government? How does that work?

您如何解釋這一點？也就是說，您可以持續享受稅收抵免。什麼時候從政府領取薪水？這是如何運作的？

Yes. So Jeff, it's Greg. I'll answer it two ways. One is from our financial statements and then from our tax cash payments. So on our financial statements, we will begin accruing this into our EBITDA as the gas flows and we've talked about that being an $85, 45Q credit that we'll net about $50 on up to 2 million tons, and we begin to see that in our third quarter reported financials as part of our EBITDA calculation.

是的。傑夫，我是格雷格。我會用兩種方式來回答。一是來自我們的財務報表，二是來自我們的稅金現金支付。因此，在我們的財務報表上，隨著天然氣的流入，我們將開始將其計入我們的 EBITDA，我們已經討論過這是一個 85 美元的 45Q 信用額度，我們將在最多 200 萬噸的產量中獲得約 50 美元的淨收入，我們開始在第三季度報告的財務中看到這一點，作為我們 EBITDA 計算的一部分。

Now on the cash side, obviously, we won't settle up on our cash tax position until the later part of 2026 but we will begin to withhold our expectations around what we're going to receive back for the 45Q credit as early as our September payments that we make in, our estimated September payments that we make into the IRS. So you'll begin to see the cash benefits of that almost immediately. And then obviously, at the end, when we file our final return next year, it will all be part of that return.

現在就現金方面而言，顯然，我們要到 2026 年下半年才能解決我們的現金稅務狀況，但我們將開始保留對 45Q 抵免額的預期，最早在我們 9 月份的付款中，也就是我們向美國國稅局支付的預計 9 月份付款中。因此，您幾乎會立即看到它帶來的現金收益。然後顯然，最後，當我們明年提交最終申報表時，這一切都將成為該申報表的一部分。

Great. And just one follow-up. Can you talk about the theoretical relationship between the amount of ammonia made and the amount of CO2 captured? Sometimes, when you read the literature, it seems that CO2 capture should be much more in tonnage than the ammonia made? And what you have is something that's pretty close to 1:1.

偉大的。並且只有一個後續行動。您能談談產生的氨的量和捕獲的二氧化碳的量之間的理論關係嗎？有時，當您閱讀文獻時，似乎二氧化碳捕獲的噸位應該比產生的氨的噸位多得多？而你所得到的是相當接近 1:1 的比例。

Can you describe what's going on?

你能描述一下發生了什麼事嗎？

Yes, Jeff, let me start off with that, and then I'll turn it over to Chris. But all of our existing ammonia plants today are conventional steam methane reforming. And in general, you end up with about 1/3 of the natural gas used to drive the process from an energy and heat perspective. And about 2/3 of the natural gas goes into the actual process and the synthesis of ammonia. And so the total amount of gas, about 32 on average MMBTUS' per ton of ammonia will generate about kind of, call it, 1.8-ish, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, depending upon the plant in question, tons of CO2 per ton of ammonia.

是的，傑夫，讓我先從這個開始，然後我會把它交給克里斯。但我們目前現有的所有氨工廠都是傳統的蒸汽甲烷重整。一般來說，從能源和熱量的角度來看，最終只需要約 1/3 的天然氣即可驅動流程。其中約2/3的天然氣進入實際製程和氨的合成。因此，每噸氨氣的氣體總量平均約為 32 MMBTUS，將產生約 1.8、1.7、1.8、1.9 噸二氧化碳，具體取決於相關工廠。

With the existing process, though, because we're not doing flue gas capture on SMRs, you can only capture about 2/3 of that, which is related to the process side of the equation. And then Donaldsonville is one of our large upgrade facilities, and when you're making urea either as granular or as part of DEF or going into UAN. You have to use a lot of that process CO2 to make urea. So you actually have to use it downstream in the process and therefore, it's not available for CCS.

然而，由於我們沒有在 SMR 上進行煙氣捕獲，因此在現有製程下只能捕獲其中的約 2/3，這與等式的製程方面有關。唐納森維爾是我們大型升級設施之一，您可以生產顆粒狀尿素、DEF 的一部分尿素或將其製成 UAN。你必須使用大量的二氧化碳來製造尿素。因此，您實際上必須在流程下游使用它，因此它不適用於 CCS。

When we move to Blue Point, because it's a different process, auto-thermal reforming we can capture a much, much higher percentage of the CO2, in that case, probably close to like 95% to 98%.

當我們轉移到藍點時，由於這是一個不同的過程，自熱重整，我們可以捕捉更高比例的二氧化碳，在這種情況下，可能接近 95% 到 98%。

I'm not sure there's much I can add to that.

我不確定我還能補充什麼。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Great. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the current supply side dynamics into the second half and into '26. I mean there's been essentially everything there have been attacks on Russian facilities, geopolitics, gas shortages in Eastern Europe and Trinidad. I mean, there's literally been everything. But -- and ultimately, demand has been stable to solid on the other side of that.

偉大的。我很想聽聽您對下半年和26年當前供應的動態的看法。我的意思是，基本上發生了各種事情，例如對俄羅斯設施的襲擊、地緣政治、東歐和特立尼達的天然氣短缺。我的意思是，實際上一切都已經發生了。但最終，需求一直保持穩定和穩健。

But how should investors be thinking about the sustainability of these dynamics into 2026. And have you seen actually anything improved? Or are we still essentially at the status quo?

但投資人應該如何看待這些動態在 2026 年的可持續性。您確實看到任何改進了嗎？或者我們本質上仍處於現狀？

Chris, this is Bert. And this has been an incredibly interesting market for the aspects that you articulated tax, geopolitical tax being tariffs, gas shortages and just issues in high demand than on the opposite side.

克里斯，這是伯特。這是一個非常有趣的市場，就您提到的稅收、地緣政治稅（即關稅）、天然氣短缺以及需求量大而非相反的問題而言。

So starting with the tariffs. We've been in this discussion since March, it was going to be April. And so that delayed imports or even cut imports into North and into United States for Q2. And we are exiting Q2 and into Q3 inventory that needs to be rebuilt in the United States and Canada. And so we are doing our best at CF in terms of running as we do at very high rates and being efficient and moving our product.

所以就從關稅開始吧。我們從三月就開始討論這個問題了，本來就計畫要到四月。這導致第二季北美和美國的進口量延遲甚至減少。我們即將結束第二季度，進入第三季度，需要在美國和加拿大重建庫存。因此，我們在 CF 方面盡最大努力以非常高的速度運行，有效地移動我們的產品。

But as I mentioned in an earlier comment, nitrogen and fertilizer is a global commodity that moves based on price and based on needs. And we're now entering the peak season for the Southern Hemisphere and you're seeing India step in yesterday closing 2 million tons. That's the first time they've been able to close that ton, but at prices in the $500, $2,500, $30 range, very attractive compared to historical values.

但正如我在先前的評論中提到的，氮和肥料是一種全球性商品，其流動性取決於價格和需求。現在我們正進入南半球的出口旺季，你會看到印度昨天出口了 200 萬噸。這是他們第一次能夠成交那麼多噸，但價格在 500 美元、2,500 美元、30 美元之間，與歷史價值相比非常有吸引力。

And so you've got high demand in the Southern Hemisphere. And when I talked about in my prepared remarks, Brazil needing probably 1 million tons a month for the next several months. to satisfy their first planting and then getting ready for their second crop that gets planted in January. And then you've got to quickly pivot to the Northern Hemisphere entering 2026 for Europe and North America. And I think that's going to be a very hard or a very difficult calculation to close because of our inventories and the need, the imports and the disruptions of tariffs.

因此南半球的需求量很大。我在準備好的發言中提到，巴西未來幾個月每月可能需要 100 萬噸，以滿足他們的第一批作物種植需求，然後為 1 月種植的第二批作物做好準備。然後，你必須在 2026 年迅速轉向北半球的歐洲和北美。我認為，由於我們的庫存和需求、進口和關稅的干擾，這將是一個非常困難或難以完成的計算。

And then you go to the gas shortages that were created during the conflict in Iran and the cutoff of gas to Egypt, a low gas supply in Trinidad, just between, I'd say, those three areas just regarding what we lost just between Egypt and Iran over 1 million tons. And so then you have China entering the market with an additional 5 million tonnes, it doesn't close the balance. This is why we're constructively positive in the market for Q3 and Q4, but into '26 with the current pricing dynamic that we're experiencing. Couple that with the low gas prices that North America that we're seeing at $3 makes for a very attractive position for CF.

然後你會看到伊朗衝突期間造成的天然氣短缺，以及埃及天然氣供應中斷，特立尼達的天然氣供應不足，我想說，光是這三個地區之間，埃及和伊朗之間的天然氣損失就超過 100 萬噸。因此，中國又向市場投放了 500 萬噸，但這仍無法彌補缺口。這就是為什麼我們對第三季和第四季的市場持建設性樂觀態度，但進入26年，我們正經歷當前的價格動態。再加上我們看到的北美 3 美元的低油價，這對 CF 來說是一個非常有吸引力的地位。

And just if I may parlay that question into another, the second half is setting up pretty well in terms of ASPs and obviously, we'll have to have our own views on operations and ultimately, volumes sold.

如果我可以把這個問題引向另一個問題的話，下半年在平均銷售價格方面表現相當不錯，顯然，我們必須對營運以及最終的銷售量有自己的看法。

But if you we tend -- if you set up favorably on the free cash flow side, just even given the historical 60%, 70% at times, how should investors be thinking about the uses of cash? Because on the one hand, obviously, a lot of people are going to be looking for buybacks. At the other, you are entering a CapEx cycle with Blue Point and there have been some debate on basically derisking at least the beginning of that cycle. So how should we be balancing those two views under the presumption that free cash flow should be a little bit better as we progress throughout the year?

但是，如果我們傾向於—如果您在自由現金流方面取得有利的成績，即使考慮到歷史上的 60%、70%，投資者應該如何考慮現金的用途？因為一方面，顯然很多人都會尋求回購。另一方面，您正在與 Blue Point 一起進入資本支出週期，並且已經出現了一些關於至少在該週期開始時基本降低風險的爭論。那麼，在假設自由現金流會隨著全年的進展而變得更好的情況下，我們該如何平衡這兩種觀點呢？

Yes. I would say, in general, Chris, we do have $2.4 billion open to buy on share repo. And we have, I think, a pretty good view of what expenditures look like for Blue Point going out initially.

是的。我想說，克里斯，總的來說，我們確實有 24 億美元的股票回購資金可供購買。我認為，我們對 Blue Point 最初的支出情況有相當好的了解。

And these kind of projects, they start off a little on the slower side and then start accelerating then the big spend is really kind of year 3 and 4 as you're paying for all of the deliveries of the large modules and doing the construction work to put them together and get the plant kind of commissioned.

這類專案開始時進度稍慢，然後開始加速，大筆支出實際上是在第 3 年和第 4 年，因為您要支付所有大型模組的交付費用，並進行組裝和工廠調試的施工工作。

But in general, as we're generating kind of more cash than what maybe an LRP would look like or even what the expectation of certain market segments look like, then we will probably go ahead and deploy that capital against the share repurchase more expeditiously than otherwise we might pace it out.

但總的來說，由於我們產生的現金比 LRP 可能產生的現金或某些細分市場的預期要多，因此我們可能會比其他方式更快地部署這些資金用於股票回購。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

This is Mason Manware on for Kristen. I just wanted to follow up on the carbon capture at Donaldsonville question, in particular, the contribution of the credits in Q3, understanding that the 45Q for enhanced oil recovery is different from the permanent sequestration credit.

這是 Mason Manware 為 Kristen 表演的。我只是想跟進唐納森維爾的碳捕獲問題，特別是第三季的信用額度貢獻，我了解到用於提高石油採收率的 45Q 與永久性封存信用額度不同。

Can you just help us understand the economics of the EOR credit? And is there any additional costs related to that process? Or should we just think about the similar flow-through just off that lower credit value?

您能幫助我們了解一下 EOR 信用的經濟性嗎？該過程是否會產生任何額外費用？或者我們應該只考慮較低信用價值的類似流通？

Yes. Thanks. This is Chris. Mason, I would start with that our base case assumptions for not only the Donaldsonville, but also the Blue Point in Yazoo City is that it goes to Class 6 permanent sequestration. And as far as the tax law, that particular allocation of 45Q at $85 per metric ton did not change.

是的。謝謝。這是克里斯。梅森，首先我想說的是，我們對於唐納森維爾和亞祖城藍點的基本假設都是，它們都將達到 6 級永久封存。就稅法而言，45Q 的具體分配為每公噸 85 美元，並沒有改變。

The EOR data up from $60 to $85 per metric ton. And as you may know, we've begun sequestering at Donaldsonville while Exxon is in the process of getting their Class 6, utilizing the EOR and putting in permanent geological frustration through EOR.

EOR 數據從每公噸 60 美元上漲至 85 美元。您可能知道，我們已經開始在唐納森維爾進行封存，而埃克森美孚正在獲取其 6 級油氣資源，利用 EOR 技術，並透過 EOR 技術造成永久性的地質挫折。

That does allow us potentially to go from the $60 to $85, however, we don't believe that, that's going to really make any type of difference from our economics as we have equivalent economics, whether it's EOR or the Class 6 permit.

這確實使我們有可能從 60 美元漲到 85 美元，但是，我們認為這不會對我們的經濟產生任何影響，因為我們有同等的經濟效益，無論是 EOR 還是 6 級許可證。

The one thing I would mention is Exxon was granted a draft Class 6 permit for its Rose-CCS project in July and the comment period for that with the EPA ended earlier this week. And so it's our expectation that we'll be moving to that Class 6 relatively soon here before the end of the year.

我想提到的一件事是，埃克森美孚於 7 月獲得了其 Rose-CCS 項目的 6 級許可證草案，而美國環保署對此項目的評論期已於本週早些時候結束。因此，我們預計我們將在今年年底之前相對快速地進入第 6 級。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

I'm wondering, I think the press release talked about an expectation that China will not export further this year, at least after 3Q. So just curious what's driving that view, if it's anything in particular you're picking up on the ground with your sources in China?

我想知道，我認為新聞稿談到了中國今年不會進一步出口的預期，至少在第三季之後不會。所以我很好奇是什麼導致了這種觀點，您是否從中國的消息來源那裡了解到了什麼特別的資訊？

So we've been fairly consistent with our Chinese expectations that there is exportable tons available. The issue with China today is a lot of those tons are prilled urea and prilled urea is not desired by many places outside of India, Mexico, a few other Asian countries. And so what they offered to initiate our initial volume target was 2 million tons through Q3, and then they start building for their spring season through Q4 and Q1 of next year. Subsequent to that, they announced an additional 1 million tons. And again, our commentary is that those are tons that are needed with the losses that have taken place in different parts of the world and the high demand position that the world is in, bringing those Chinese tons an additional 1 million, so to hit 3 million tons.

因此，我們對可供出口的噸數的預期基本上一致。目前中國面臨的問題是，其中許多都是粒狀尿素，而印度、墨西哥和其他一些亞洲國家以外的許多地方並不需要粒狀尿素。因此，他們提出的初始產量目標是到第三季達到 200 萬噸，然後他們將在第四季和明年第一季開始為春季產量做準備。隨後，他們又宣布增加100萬噸。再次強調，我們的評論是，考慮到世界各地發生的損失以及世界的高需求狀況，這些噸位是必要的，因此中國需要額外增加 100 萬噸，以達到 300 萬噸的產量。

But so far, they've been underperforming in terms of those exports out in June and July. So we'll see if they're able to hit those numbers. There was a rumor that India might be able to buy some Chinese tons. Those were -- I would say forbidden, but they were not to be exported to India that might still happen. And so constructively positive for world supply, not impacting, I think, pricing.

但到目前為止，6 月和 7 月的出口表現不佳。所以我們將看看他們是否能夠達到這些數字。有傳言稱，印度可能會購買一些中國產品。我想說這些是被禁止的，但它們不會被出口到印度，這種情況可能仍然會發生。因此，我認為這對世界供應具有建設性積極作用，不會影響定價。

They have since raised the minimum price in China for both the prills and the granular product. So we'll see what happens over the ensuing months.

他們此後提高了中國市場上球狀和顆粒狀產品的最低價格。因此，我們將拭​​目以待接下來的幾個月會發生什麼。

What about for the fourth quarter? It sounds like you don't expect it for the fourth quarter?

第四季的情況怎麼樣？聽起來你對第四季沒有太大期待？

Further announcements, that's all I'm going on is no.

進一步公告，這就是我要說的全部內容，沒有。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

美國銀行的馬修‧德約 (Matthew DeYoe)。

Look, I know you made some comments about insufficient nitrogen supply additions. But what do you make of some of the larger capacity functions for urea that CRU has kind of noted or flagging coming to the market in the next five years in China. It's kind of the prevailing assumption that China won't build that or it just won't get exported given some of the current policies?

聽著，我知道您對氮供應添加不足發表了一些評論。但是，您如何看待 CRU 已經注意到或預測未來五年內中國市場上將會出現的一些較大的尿素產能呢？是否有普遍的假設，認為中國不會生產這種產品，或考慮到目前的一些政策，這種產品不會出口？

You have several factors going on in world supply and demand and focusing on the supply side, there are plants in Russia, Iran and Turkey totaling about 2.7 million tons. And then the four plants in China, I think you're referencing, targeting 2.6 million tons that are scheduled to start up in the ensuing, I'd say, this year and next year and then some ongoing construction. But you've had plants taken offline and then the gas issues that we've talked about in different parts of the world.

世界供需有許多因素，從供應方面來看，俄羅斯、伊朗和土耳其的工廠總產量約為 270 萬噸。然後，我想您提到的中國四家工廠的目標是 260 萬噸，計劃在今年和明年投產，然後還有一些正在進行的建設。但是，我們已經討論過世界各地的工廠停產和天然氣問題。

So as you look at overall growth in the 1% to 1.5% growth each year that we see in the need for urea against, that's a 200 million ton supply, you need two world-scale plants to three per year to be built just to stay steady with the growth.

因此，當您看到尿素需求整體每年以 1% 到 1.5% 的速度成長時，那意味著 2 億噸的供應量，每年需要建造兩到三座世界級的工廠才能保持穩定的成長。

And so again, coupled with the restrictions, whether that be Europe or Trinidad or different parts of the world that have gone offline, we don't see that keeping pace. And you're seeing that reflected today in continued strong demand, Brazil is a great example. Brazil is going to be 9 million tons. It has steadily grown year after year, with, again, yield accompanying that, whether that be corn, wheat or cotton, yields improving, they're going to need additional and they don't have any urea plants coming on. They've talked about with Petrobras bringing several of those plants back online, that's going to take some time.

因此，再加上各種限制，無論是歐洲、特立尼達或世界其他地區都已經下線，我們認為這種情況不會跟上。今天你會看到持續強勁的需求，巴西就是一個很好的例子。巴西將達到900萬噸。它逐年穩定成長，產量也隨之提高，無論是玉米、小麥或棉花，產量都在提高，他們需要額外的產量，但他們沒有任何尿素工廠投入使用。他們已經與巴西石油公司討論了恢復其中幾家工廠的運營，但這需要一些時間。

And we're seeing India, even though they built these new plants, they're not operating to expectations. And so they're underperforming in terms of their total production based on expectations. So you go world around the world, Ukraine is not operating, Pakistan is not operating. You got different parts that are driving the supply shortage and demand increasing.

我們看到，印度儘管建造了這些新工廠，但其運作情況並未達到預期。因此，他們的總產量表現低於預期。所以你環顧世界，烏克蘭沒有運作，巴基斯坦也沒有運作。造成供應短缺和需求增加的原因有很多。

I would just add to that on Bert's comments that generally in China, when new production is going on, a lot of times that is replacement of old, less efficient or higher particulate matter plants that are going offline. So it's a bit of a replacement. Additionally, our view on the tightening S&D balance from a nitrogen perspective, specifically ammonia is based on, there's a lot of upgrade urea plants that are going in to consume that ammonia.

關於伯特的評論，我只想補充一點，在中國，一般來說，當進行新的生產時，很多時候是為了更換那些已經下線的舊的、效率較低或顆粒物含量較高的工廠。所以這有點像是一種替代。此外，從氮氣角度來看，我們對 S&D 平衡收緊的看法，特別是氨氣，是基於大量升級尿素工廠將消耗這些氨氣。

So as we see this tightening of the ammonia market, part of it is just new upgrade plants going in both here in the US and globally that are consuming that ammonia and tightening that market even more. And then coupled with what Bert said, with European production continuing to be challenged, we expect that to continue as well. So I think it's still going to be a very tight market as we move through the end of this decade.

因此，我們看到氨市場收緊，部分原因是美國和全球新建的升級工廠正在消耗氨，使氨市場更加收緊。然後，再加上伯特所說的，隨著歐洲生產繼續面臨挑戰，我們預計這種情況也會持續下去。因此我認為，隨著本世紀末的到來，市場仍將非常緊張。

I appreciate that. And one more, I guess, if we think about the blue and green ammonia market, how much do you think ultimately could get moved into, say, Asian energy markets for shipping, right? Like what's the -- how much tonnage can that ultimately be?

我很感激。我想，還有一個問題，如果我們考慮藍色和綠色氨市場，您認為最終有多少可以進入亞洲能源航運市場，對嗎？比如——最終噸位能達到多少？

Yes. I would say the base case right now between now and 2030, we're looking at is probably 3 million tons of low-carbon ammonia would be moving in there, primarily for power generation. However, with that, I think what we're seeing with our announcement actually moving forward is more interest from other parties who are contacting not only Bert but also bidding through different areas for low carbon production, both in power gen, and then you're also seeing a little bit more starting to grow in the marine side. I still think the marine side is a bit further out than 2030, but you are beginning to see ammonia engine vessels being constructed.

是的。我想說，從現在到 2030 年的基本情況是，我們預計大概會有 300 萬噸低碳氨流入那裡，主要用於發電。然而，我認為，隨著我們的公告的推進，我們看到其他各方的興趣越來越濃厚，他們不僅聯繫了 Bert，還透過不同的領域競標低碳生產，包括發電領域，然後你還會看到海洋方面的業務開始有所增長。我仍然認為海運方面比 2030 年還要晚一些，但你開始看到氨發動機船舶正在建造。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Just wanted to understand a little bit better the sequential dynamics in ammonia. If we take a look at 2Q versus 1Q, it feels like the gas price came down, but at the same time, gross margin was actually significantly worse on a sequential basis. So I just want to understand what's been happening here and how we should think about the back half of the year as it relates to -- assuming gas prices where they are right now, what that should do to your Nutrien adjusted gross margin per ton?

只是想更了解氨的連續動力學。如果我們將第二季與第一季進行比較，感覺天然氣價格下降了，但與此同時，毛利率實際上比上一季明顯下降。所以我只是想了解這裡發生了什麼，以及我們應該如何看待下半年的情況——假設天然氣價格保持在目前的水平，這對您的 Nutrien 每噸調整後毛利率有何影響？

Yes. No, no, I'll start and pass it over to Chris. This is Greg. So as we talked about before, and Chris talked about in particular, with some of the unplanned outages we saw as well as the distribution cost of moving product around to meet customers' needs that ran through, particularly in the ammonia segment into the second quarter.

是的。不，不，我先開始，然後把它交給克里斯。這是格雷格。正如我們之前談到的，克里斯特別談到了我們看到的一些計劃外停產以及為滿足客戶需求而移動產品的分銷成本，特別是在第二季度的氨氣領域。

Yes. And we also, as Greg mentioned earlier, we look at it more than just on a quarter-by-quarter, given some of the timing. And now as we look at the back half of the year, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, Q3 is generally a little bit heavier of a turnaround period. So we may see a couple of hundred thousand tons less of gross production of ammonia during that period as well.

是的。而且，正如格雷格之前提到的，考慮到時間因素，我們不僅僅按季度來看待這個問題。現在我們回顧下半年，正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，第三季通常是一個更艱難的轉折期。因此，我們可能也會看到那段時期氨的總產量減少幾十萬噸。

And on the movement of the product, Q3 is generally an industrial export quarter with Q4 being more ag based. We've built a very solid order book for Q4 for weather dependent, but the weather always cooperates with CF Industries. So we're going to see that be a positive time of -- and the pricing has been very positive and the demand uptake very positive.

從產品走勢來看，第三季一般以工業出口為主，而第四季則以農業出口為主。我們已經為第四季度建立了非常可靠的訂單簿，以應對天氣變化，但天氣總是與 CF Industries 合作。因此，我們將看到這是一個積極的時期——定價非常積極，需求成長也非常積極。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Andrew Wong。

Maybe a topical question for today to start. What's your view on how a Russia and Ukraine truce or some sort of p-settlement could impact on natural gas prices and also on the nitrogen market?

這可能是今天的熱門問題。您如何看待俄羅斯和烏克蘭的停火或某種形式的和解將如何影響天然氣價格以及氮氣市場？

Yes. I have several Russian friends and Ukrainian friends. And I am I would take it to peace. I would love to see peace break out, and this situation ends. And it bothers me that we take it economically, and that I understand that's a reflection of our business.

是的。我有幾個俄羅斯朋友和烏克蘭朋友。而我會讓它平靜下來。我希望看到和平的到來，並結束這種局面。我很困擾我們將其視為經濟行為，我知道這反映了我們的業務。

The Russian tons that are coming to the United States, it amazes me that we are sending bombs and missiles there but bringing fertilizers here. So I would hope that, that is addressed in some form or fashion.

俄羅斯向美國運送了大量物資，令我驚訝的是，我們向那裡運送的是炸彈和飛彈，而向我們運送的卻是化肥。所以我希望能夠以某種形式或方式解決這個問題。

But the impact on natural gas, that's not going to come back anytime soon as the Nord Stream system is not going to be rebuilt anytime soon. The frustration, I believe, with the European NATO allies and the purchasing of Russian product, whether that be gas or in the form of nitrogen probably is not going to come back anytime soon.

但對天然氣的影響不會很快消失，因為北溪系統不會很快重建。我認為，歐洲北約盟友對購買俄羅斯產品（無論是天然氣還是氮氣）的不滿可能不會很快消失。

There's tariffs and sanctions coming that will only increase on Russian product. And so I think for the world, you're going to see much more North American natural gas moving to Europe and other places, and we're going to see on Bcf type basis probably going from 15 in the United States up to the mid-20s in the next several years.

針對俄羅斯產品的關稅和製裁將會增加。因此我認為，對於世界而言，你會看到更多的北美天然氣流向歐洲和其他地方，我們將看到以十億立方英尺為基礎的天然氣量可能從美國的150億立方英尺增長到未來幾年的20多億立方英尺。

On a nitrogen basis, again, it's a world, it's a globally traded commodity. I think the pricing and the product moves as relation to product needs as well as the values communicated. Russian product is traded at a discount to Brazil and India. I expect that to continue for a while. And then we see what happens with these peace talks.

就氮而言，它是一個世界，是一種全球交易的商品。我認為定價和產品的變動與產品需求以及所傳達的價值有關。俄羅斯產品以低於巴西和印度的價格進行交易。我預計這種情況將持續一段時間。然後我們來看看這些和平談判的結果如何。

But hopefully, that progresses before we have to talk about other issues.

但希望在我們討論其他問題之前能夠取得進展。

Yes. I would just add just on the energy front, anything -- it have to be solved relatively quickly to stop some of the pressure that's already in motion, specifically for European producers given the maintenance activity that these plants require the working capital and the demand timing as you're building production for 2 points of the year of demand. So I think from our perspective, what we see from a European curtailment and shutdown is expected to continue no matter what happens just given the time frame it would take in order to build back Nord Stream or bring in more Russian LNG through that time frame.

是的。我只想補充一點，就能源方面而言，任何事情——都必須相對較快地解決，以停止已經存在的一些壓力，特別是對於歐洲生產商而言，考慮到這些工廠的維護活動需要營運資金和需求時間，因為你正在為一年中 2 個點的需求進行生產。因此，我認為從我們的角度來看，無論發生什麼，歐洲的削減和關閉預計仍將繼續，因為需要一定的時間才能重建北溪管道或在此時間範圍內引入更多的俄羅斯液化天然氣。

Okay. I appreciate all that. And then maybe just switching over to Europe. With the implementation of CBAM, can you just talk about how you see that impacting the markets, both in Europe and globally. And how does that change to all of Europe at the marginal cost better?

好的。我對此表示感謝。然後也許就轉向歐洲了。隨著 CBAM 的實施，您能否談談它對歐洲和全球市場的影響？那麼這對整個歐洲的邊際成本有何影響？

Yes. So I'll start, and I'll see if anybody else wants to add in. But right now, just to put in context, CBAM in a transitional phase where right now, importers have to report their carbon intensity. So it goes into place in January of next year.

是的。那麼我先開始了，然後看看是否有人想加入。但就目前情況而言，CBAM 正處於過渡階段，進口商必須報告其碳強度。因此它將於明年一月生效。

And there's quite a few details that are still being worked out that our hope is by the end of the year here. The specifics to that particular program are put in place.

還有相當多的細節尚在製定中，我們希望在今年年底前完成。該特定計劃的具體內容已落實。

But what it will allow us, based on today where it's roughly an $80 per metric ton carbon tax on producers that we should begin to see with our low carbon ammonia coming out of Donaldsonville something that's probably in the $25 per metric ton benefit. That continues to increase through the years that by 2030 would be equivalent of $100 per metric ton advantage that low carbon production out of Donaldsonville would have.

但是，基於目前對生產商徵收的大約每公噸 80 美元的碳稅，我們應該開始看到，從唐納森維爾生產的低碳氨中，我們獲得的收益大概是每公噸 25 美元。這項優勢將逐年增加，到 2030 年，唐納森維爾的低碳生產將帶來每公噸 100 美元的優勢。

So from our perspective, it's going to be something that -- we haven't really worked into all of our models of upside, and that's why we feel confident that we've been probably overly conservative, but will be something that will be an advantage and almost our carbon arbitrage opportunity for CF as we're able to move our product in there.

因此從我們的角度來看，這將是——我們還沒有真正將其融入我們所有上行模型中，這就是為什麼我們有信心我們可能過於保守，但它將是一個優勢，幾乎是我們的碳套利機會，因為我們能夠將我們的產品轉移到那裡。

Yes, I agree with Chris. In terms of how we're looking at CBAM, but also working with our existing operating units in the UK and planning to send low-carbon ammonia to produce low carbon ammonium nitrate for that market as well as other customers, industrials as well as fertilizer producers. We see a tremendous opportunity in the near term with the products we're already making due to our CCS and longer term with the Blue Point operation.

是的，我同意克里斯的觀點。就我們如何看待 CBAM 而言，我們也與英國現有的營運部門合作，計劃將低碳氨輸送到該市場以及其他客戶、工業企業和化肥生產商，生產低碳硝酸銨。我們看到，透過 CCS 我們正在生產的產品，短期內將蘊藏著巨大的商機，而透過 Blue Point 的經營，長期來看也將蘊藏著巨大的商機。

And I would just add, we are seeing a -- as Bert commented in his remarks, we're seeing demand in a premium for the low-cost -- the low-carbon intensity product already today, that's even before you get into the CBAM situation.

我想補充一點，正如伯特在評論中所說，我們看到了對低成本、低碳強度產品的溢價需求，甚至在你進入 CBAM 情況之前就已經如此。

So this has been a great kind of initiative for us, not only because the 45Q makes it a really highly accretive investment the CO2 capture and dehydration compression injection, but also because on top of the 45Q we're getting paid incrementally differentiated product margin for the attribute. So this is just another step up as Chris said, which will add to that with the CBAM that wasn't worked in or expected in any of the initial calculations around Blue Point.

所以這對我們來說是一項偉大的舉措，不僅因為 45Q 使二氧化碳捕獲和脫水壓縮注入成為一項真正具有高度增值性的投資，而且因為在 45Q 的基礎上，我們還能獲得該屬性的增量差異化產品利潤。所以，正如克里斯所說，這只是另一個進步，這將增加 CBAM 的作用，而這在 Blue Point 的任何初始計算中都沒有被考慮或預期。

And maybe just the other part of the question just on the nitrogen market itself, like what is the impact there and on EU in its marginal cost role?

也許問題的另一部分只是關於氮氣市場本身，例如它對那裡以及歐盟的邊際成本作用有何影響？

The impact, I assume what you're asking for is what's the impact on low carbon product to the market?

至於影響，我猜您問的是低碳產品對市場有何影響？

No, just in general, like EU right now is the marginal cost setter kind of, right, with the high cost as -- does that raise your cost profile? Does it change like how the market works and maybe they're a different part of the market now or kind of that?

不，一般來說，就像歐盟現在是邊際成本製定者一樣，對吧，高成本——這會提高你的成本狀況嗎？它是否會像市場運作方式那樣發生變化，也許它們現在是市場的不同部分，或類似這樣的情況？

Yes. I think what it's going to do is it is going to raise the cost of the product going into Europe, obviously, as you're having to pay for that carbon tax that's there. But I don't think it changes anything with European production. So as demand grows their and you're seeing that constraint, that's why we're very strongly believe that you're going to have to incent new production globally to be bid in and what we've seen recently with the exception of our project, a lot of these other projects that were in FID state have either deferred those FIDs or canceled the projects all together.

是的。我認為，這顯然會提高進入歐洲的產品的成本，因為你必須支付那裡的碳稅。但我不認為這會改變歐洲的生產。因此，隨著需求的增長和你看到的限制，這就是為什麼我們非常堅信你必須在全球範圍內激勵新的生產以進行投標，而我們最近看到的是，除了我們的項目之外，許多處於 FID 狀態的其他項目要么推遲了這些 FID，要么乾脆取消了所有項目。

So we see the back half of this decade just getting tighter and that's at the same time that we'll be bringing on our production. So we think the cost curve from that perspective, given demand growth will probably move up along with some of these other carbon initiative globally.

因此，我們預計本世紀後半葉將會變得更加緊張，同時我們也將開始生產。因此，我們認為，從這個角度來看，考慮到需求成長，成本曲線可能會隨著全球其他一些碳措施而上升。

Aron Ceccarelli, Berenberg.

阿隆·切卡雷利（Aron Ceccarelli），貝倫貝格（Berenberg）。

What is CF's perspective on nitrogen fixation products? Do you see these products as a growing risk to traditional nitrogen producers? Or do you expect farmers to adopt them as a complementary solution? And perhaps additionally, would CF be interested in entering the nitrogen fixation market?

CF 對固氮產品的看法是什麼？您是否認為這些產品對傳統氮氣生產商構成了越來越大的風險？或者您希望農民採用它們作為補充解決方案？另外，CF 是否有興趣進入固氮市場？

This has been a topic, nitrogen fixation, microbials, biologicals, different applicated -- applied products for years. And I've been following this phase for a couple of decades and there have been many new entrants and we have a lot of access to farmers. We have paid attention to the studies from the various universities and I would say today, it's a questionable segment. They haven't performed as advertised, they've been tried in their variables. I've talked to two farmers most recently with all the variables controlled being water, the only variable being weather, but water seed, crop protection, fertilizer being constant and the variable being the active products.

多年來，這一直是個主題，包括固氮、微生物、生物製劑、不同的應用產品。我已經關注這個階段幾十年了，有很多新進者，我們也接觸了許多農民。我們關注了各大學的研究，今天我想說，這是一個值得懷疑的部分。它們的表現並不像宣傳的那樣，它們已經在變數方面進行了嘗試。最近，我與兩位農民進行了交談，他們控制的所有變數都是水，唯一的變數是天氣，但水種子、作物保護、肥料是恆定的，變數是活性產品。

And at times, they work and at times, they don't. Are we interested? Well, we follow these things because it has an impact on our business. We want to align with the retailers and farmers that are doing best practices and so far, we haven't seen the performance as advertised.

有時它們有效，有時則無效。我們有興趣嗎？嗯，我們關注這些事情，因為它對我們的業務有影響。我們希望與採用最佳實踐的零售商和農民保持一致，但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到廣告宣傳的效果。

The other thing I would just add to that is, our expectation is that the value associated with any kind of, as Bert said, biological or other approach, is really to drive increased yield as opposed to a cost reduction based on nitrogen. If you think about a couple of hundred pounds of nitrogen going down per acre, even at relatively strong values for nitrogen, it's worth a lot more to the grower to increase yield by 3% or 4% than it is to try to take 5% of the nitrogen off the field. There's just more dollars associated with the end grain. And so we don't really see this as a necessarily as a competing technology, more of a value enhancement to the grower.

我想補充的另一件事是，我們的期望是，正如伯特所說，任何生物或其他方法的價值實際上都是提高產量，而不是基於氮降低成本。如果你考慮每英畝減少幾百磅的氮，即使氮含量相對較高，對於種植者來說，提高 3% 或 4% 的產量也比試圖從田地中減少 5% 的氮更有價值。最終穀物帶來的收益只是更多。因此，我們並不認為這必然是一種競爭技術，而更多的是一種對種植者的價值提升。

Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the call back over to Martin Jarosick for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天我們的提問時間就到這裡了。現在我想將電話轉回給馬丁·賈羅西克，請他做最後發言。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and we look forward to seeing you at the upcoming conferences.

感謝大家的參與，我們期待在即將舉行的會議上見到你們。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，現在您可以斷開您的線路了。