CF工業控股 (CF) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CF Industries full year and fourth quarter 2024 conference call. Please note, this event is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 CF Industries 2024 年全年和第四季度電話會議。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the presentation over to the host for today, Mr. Martin Jarosick with CF Investor Relations. Sir, please proceed.

現在，我想將演講交給今天的主持人，CF 投資者關係部門的 Martin Jarosick 先生。先生，請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Tony Will, President and CEO; Chris Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Bert Frost, Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain; and Greg Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加 CF Industries 收益電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長托尼威爾；克里斯‧博恩 (Chris Bohn)，執行副總裁兼營運長； Bert Frost，銷售、市場開發和供應鏈執行副總裁；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Greg Cameron。

CF Industries reported its results for the full year and fourth quarter of 2024 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook and then host a question-and-answer session. Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements.

CF Industries 昨天下午公佈了其 2024 年全年和第四季度業績。在這次電話會議上，我們將回顧結果，討論我們的展望，然後主持問答環節。本次電話會議中以及我們網站上的演示中所作的非歷史事實的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in these statements.

這些聲明並不能保證未來的表現，並且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。因此，實際結果可能與這些陳述中表達或暗示的內容有重大差異。

More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you'll find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website.

有關可能影響我們業績的因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，該文件可在我們的網站上查閱。此外，您還可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿和簡報中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對帳。

Now let me introduce Tony Will.

現在讓我來介紹一下托尼威爾。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the fourth quarter of 2024, in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $562 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $2.3 billion. This strong performance enabled us to return $1.9 billion to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2024, which is our highest level of capital return in more than a decade.

謝謝，馬丁，大家早安。昨天下午，我們公佈了 2024 年第四季的業績，其中調整後的 EBITDA 為 5.62 億美元。全年調整後 EBITDA 為 23 億美元。這一強勁表現使我們能夠在 2024 年透過股息和股票回購向股東返還 19 億美元，這是我們十多年來最高的資本回報水平。

The CF team is operating at a high level, advancing our strategic initiatives and most importantly, working safely. Given our fully engaged employees our low-cost manufacturing system with the highest onstream factors in the industry.

CF 團隊正在高水準運作，推動我們的策略計劃，最重要的是，安全地工作。憑藉全心投入的員工，我們的低成本製造系統擁有業界最高的線上率。

Our expansive distribution and logistics network and very constructive nitrogen industry fundamentals. We are well positioned to continue our track record of generating superior free cash flow that enables the company to both grow and return substantial capital to shareholders.

我們擁有廣泛的分銷和物流網絡以及極具建設性的氮氣產業基本面。我們已做好準備，繼續保持創造優異自由現金流的良好記錄，使公司既能發展壯大，又能向股東返還大量資本。

With that, I'll turn it over to Chris to provide more details on our operating results and the status of key initiatives. Chris?

接下來，我將把話題交給克里斯，讓他提供有關我們的經營業績和關鍵舉措狀況的更多詳細資訊。克里斯？

Thanks, Tony. Our production network operated extremely well through year-end. We produced over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia in the fourth quarter, which reflects 100% ammonia utilization rate. We finished the year with 9.8 million tons of gross ammonia production.

謝謝，托尼。到年底時，我們的生產網路運作得非常好。我們在第四季生產了超過260萬噸的氨，氨利用率達到100%。全年合成氨總產量達 980 萬噸。

Our manufacturing network has continued to operate well to start 2025, and did not experience any significant disruptions from recent winter weather events. We expect to produce approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia in 2025. We are making good progress on our key strategic initiatives.

到 2025 年，我們的製造網路一直運作良好，並且沒有受到最近冬季天氣事件的任何重大干擾。我們預計 2025 年總氨產量約 1,000 萬噸。我們的關鍵策略措施正在取得良好進展。

The completion of our carbon capture and sequestration project at our Donaldsonville complex is in sight. Commissioning activities for the carbon dioxide dehydration and compression unit have begun alongside final construction activities.

我們位於唐納森維爾綜合設施的碳捕獲和封存項目即將完工。二氧化碳脫水和壓縮機組的調試活動已與最終建設活動同時開始。

We expect start-up of carbon sequestration and 45Q tax credit generation this year. Our evaluation of a greenfield low-carbon ammonia plant at our Blue Point complex in Louisiana is also nearing completion. As Greg will detail shortly, we completed the FEED study for an autothermal reforming ammonia plant, marking a major milestone towards this strategic initiative.

我們預計今年將啟動碳封存和 45Q 稅收抵免。我們對位於路易斯安那州藍點綜合設施內的綠地低碳氨工廠的評估也即將完成。正如 Greg 稍後詳細介紹的那樣，我們完成了自熱重整氨工廠的 FEED 研究，這是這項策略性舉措的一個重要里程碑。

We continue to assess the project in light of our outlook for the global nitrogen supply demand balance, customer requirements for carbon intensity and the regulatory environment. We are working to complete the partnership structure.

我們根據對全球氮供需平衡的展望、客戶對碳強度的要求和監管環境繼續評估該專案。我們正在努力完善合作夥伴關係架構。

We expect that our ownership of the project will range from 40% to 75% depending on the number of equity partners at the outset. If we were to make a positive final investment decision at a 75% ownership level, we believe we would have the option to sell down that level if we chose to give an ongoing discussions with other potential partners. We continue to target the first quarter of 2025 for final investment decision.

我們預計，我們對該專案的所有權將在 40% 到 75% 之間，具體取決於最初的股權合夥人的數量。如果我們在 75% 的所有權水準上做出積極的最終投資決策，我們相信如果我們選擇與其他潛在合作夥伴進行持續討論，我們將可以選擇降低該水準。我們仍以 2025 年第一季做出最終投資決定為目標。

With that, let me turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉給伯特來討論一下全球氮氣市場。

Thanks, Chris. CF Industries had a positive fourth quarter of 2024 that is carried over into 2025. We had a very strong fall ammonia application season and have built a strong order book for all products as retailers and wholesalers layer in product tons for what they believe will be a good spring application season.

謝謝，克里斯。CF Industries 在 2024 年第四季取得了積極的業績，並將延續到 2025 年。我們度過了一個非常強勁的秋季氨應用季節，並為所有產品建立了強大的訂單簿，因為零售商和批發商認為這將是一個良好的春季應用季節，他們大量地儲備產品。

We ended the year at lower than average inventory levels in our network and believe the North American channel is at low levels as well due to lower-than-normal imports into North America.

我們網路中的庫存水準低於今年的平均水平，並且由於北美的進口量低於正常水平，我們認為北美通路的庫存水準也處於較低水平。

As we move to the fourth quarter, global nitrogen market participants began to appreciate how much the global supply-demand balance has tightened. Nowhere was this more evident than India's inability to secure the volumes they targeted for the last two urea tenders.

隨著進入第四季度，全球氮氣市場參與者開始意識到全球供需平衡的收緊程度。最明顯的例證就是印度在最近兩次尿素招標中都未能達到其目標數量。

Given the high urea consumption in the country and lower-than-targeted production, we expect India to issue another tender later in the first quarter just as the Northern Hemisphere demand ramps up for spring, demand that we expect to be very strong.

鑑於印度尿素消費量高且產量低於目標，我們預計印度將在第一季稍後再次發布招標，屆時北半球春季需求將會增加，我們預計需求將非常強勁。

World corn stocks and world's corn stocks-to-use ratios, excluding China, are at a 13- and 30-year low, respectively. Given the need to replenish global corn stocks and a corn to soybean ratio favorable to corn, we expect robust planted corn acres and strong nitrogen demand in the United States in 2025.

全球玉米庫存和全球玉米庫存使用比（不包括中國）分別處於13年來和30年來的最低水準。鑑於需要補充全球玉米庫存，且玉米與大豆的比例對玉米有利，我們預計 2025 年美國玉米種植面積將十分可觀，氮肥需求也將強勁。

Longer term, we expect the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to tighten through the end of the decade. Capital availability, long-term feedstocks and costs and global events have limited the number of new projects.

從長遠來看，我們預計到本世紀末全球氮供需平衡將會趨緊。資本的可用性、長期原料和成本以及全球事件限制了新項目的數量。

As a result, projected new capacity growth is not keeping pace with demand growth for traditional fertilizer and industrial applications. We believe demand for low-carbon ammonia for low -- for new applications, such as power generation, would only further tighten the global supply-demand balance.

因此，預計的新產能成長跟不上傳統肥料和工業應用的需求成長。我們認為，發電等新應用對低碳氨的需求只會進一步收緊全球供需平衡。

With that, Greg will cover our financial performance.

接下來，格雷格將介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Bert. For the full year 2024, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.2 billion or $6.74 per diluted share. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were both approximately $2.3 billion.

謝謝，伯特。該公司報告 2024 年全年歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤約為 12 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 6.74 美元。EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 均約為 23 億美元。

For the fourth quarter of 2024, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $328 million or $1.89 per diluted share. EBITDA was $582 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $562 million. Net cash from operations was $2.3 billion, and free cash flow was approximately $1.45 billion. We continue to be efficient converters of EBITDA to free cash flow.

2024 年第四季度，該公司報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤約為 3.28 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.89 美元。EBITDA 為 5.82 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 5.62 億美元。經營活動產生的淨現金為 23 億美元，自由現金流約 14.5 億美元。我們繼續有效率地將 EBITDA 轉化為自由現金流。

Our cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate for the year was 63%, which far exceeds our peers, as you can see on Slide 5. We returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders in 2024. This included $364 million in dividend payments and over $1.5 billion in share repurchases.

我們今年的現金流量與調整後 EBITDA 的轉換率為 63%，遠遠超過我們的同行，正如您在幻燈片 5 中所看到的。2024 年我們向股東返還了約 19 億美元。其中包括 3.64 億美元的股息支付和超過 15 億美元的股票回購。

For the year, we repurchased 18.8 million shares, representing 10% of the outstanding shares at the beginning of 2024. Entering 2025, we had a little over $1 billion remaining on our current share repurchase authorization, which we intend to complete before its expiration in December. Based on market capitalization at the start of the year, we have the capacity to repurchase approximately 7% of our outstanding shares through the end of 2025.

本年度，我們回購了 1,880 萬股，佔 2024 年初流通股的 10%。進入 2025 年，我們目前的股票回購授權剩餘略超過 10 億美元，我們打算在 12 月到期前完成。根據年初的市值，到 2025 年底，我們有能力回購約 7% 的流通股。

As Chris mentioned, we completed the FEED study for a 1.4 million metric tons per year ATR ammonia plant with carbon capture and sequestration technologies. The study estimates that the cost of a project with these attributes would be approximately $4 billion, which will be divided among the equity partners.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們完成了年產 140 萬噸 ATR 氨工廠的 FEED 研究，該工廠採用了碳捕獲和封存技術。該研究估計，具有這些屬性的項目成本約為 40 億美元，將由股權合夥人分配。

At this level of capital investment with the incentives of carbon capture, and an ammonia price of $450 per metric ton, we'd expect to earn a return above our cost of capital. There is an additional $500 million required for scalable common infrastructure, which would be CF Industries sole responsibility and can be leveraged for future growth at the Blue plant complex.

在這種資本投資水準下，加上碳捕獲的激勵措施以及每公噸 450 美元的氨價格，我們預計將獲得高於資本成本的回報。可擴展的公共基礎設施還需要額外的 5 億美元，這將由 CF Industries 全權負責，並可用於藍色工廠綜合體未來的成長。

Should we move forward, we'd expect the common infrastructure would also earn a rate of return above our cost of capital due to the payments from the ammonia plant owners for the use of the facilities.

如果我們繼續前進，我們預計，由於氨工廠所有者支付了使用這些設施的費用，公共基礎設施也將獲得高於我們資本成本的回報率。

With that, Tony will provide some closing remarks before we open up the call to Q&A.

在我們開始問答環節之前，托尼將發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Greg. Before we move on to your questions, I want to thank everyone at CF Industries for their contributions in the fourth quarter and for the full year. As a company, we have a lot to look forward to in 2025.

謝謝，格雷格。在我們回答您的問題之前，我想感謝 CF Industries 的每個人在第四季度和全年所做的貢獻。作為一家公司，我們對 2025 年有很多期待。

From constructive global nitrogen industry dynamics to the start-up of our first CCS project and a final investment decision on our Blue Point complex. We're excited for what's ahead. Investing in our business to increase cash generation while dramatically reducing our share count has served our shareholders well.

從建設性的全球氮氣產業動態到我們的第一個 CCS 計畫的啟動，以及我們對藍點綜合設施的最終投資決策。我們對未來充滿期待。透過投資我們的業務來增加現金產生，同時大幅減少我們的股份數量，為我們的股東帶來了良好的利益。

As you can see on Slide 8, in the last decade, since most of this team has been together running CS, we have increased production capacity by almost 20%, while reducing our shares outstanding by almost 30%. What this drives is clearly shown on Slide 5 of our deck, and we have boxed the most relevant data.

正如您在投影片 8 上看到的，在過去十年中，由於這個團隊的大部分成員一直在一起運作 CS，我們的生產能力提高了近 20%，同時流通股減少了近 30%。我們的投影片第 5 張清楚地顯示了這將帶來的推動力，並且我們將最相關的數據框了出來。

This is how we run our business to generate more free cash flow while reducing our share count. It is exactly this ratio that demonstrates the superiority of our business model. In the very near term, in this year of 2025, we have a couple of initiatives that we'll continue to build on this track record. The 45Q tax credit is expected to begin this year as we sequester CO2 from Donaldsonville.

這就是我們經營業務的方式，以在減少股份數量的同時產生更多的自由現金流。正是這個比例體現了我們商業模式的優越性。在近期，也就是 2025 年，我們有幾個計畫將在此基礎上繼續前進。隨著我們從唐納森維爾封存二氧化碳，45Q 稅收抵免預計今年開始。

We will also complete our share repurchase authorization, which, as Greg mentioned, should take out another roughly 7% of our outstanding shares pro forma. Over the longer term, we expect investments in our network and low-carbon ammonia production capacity will provide a robust growth platform for the company, add to our cash generation and continue to drive that all-important golden ratio shown on Slide 5, creating substantial value for our long-term shareholders.

我們還將完成股票回購授權，正如格雷格所提到的，這將占我們流通股的另外約 7%。從長遠來看，我們預計對我們的網路和低碳氨生產能力的投資將為公司提供強勁的成長平台，增加我們的現金創造，並繼續推動幻燈片 5 上顯示的最重要的黃金比例，為我們的長期股東創造巨大價值。

With that, operator, we will now open the call to your questions.

接線員，現在我們將開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

(操作員指示) Joel Jackson，BMO 資本市場。

I wanted to ask you about your hedging. You talked about in the past couple of quarters that maybe you weren't layering on as many strips or hedging as you had the (inaudible) looks like you quite well in Q4 to get ahead of the higher gas prices.

我想詢問一下你的對沖情況。您談到，在過去的幾個季度中，也許您沒有像在第四季度那樣分層放置那麼多條帶或進行對沖（聽不清楚），以便在油價上漲之前做好應對準備。

We've now seen, of course, US gas prices surge. Talk about how open you are what your GAAP or like for Q1, Q2 for the rest of the year? And what we're seeing, the more volatility, Tony and team, is this making you rethink your DAS hedging strategy going forward?

當然，我們現在看到美國汽油價格飆升。請談談您對今年剩餘時間第一季和第二季的 GAAP 或情況的了解程度如何？我們看到，波動性越來越大，托尼和團隊，這是否讓您重新考慮未來的 DAS 對沖策略？

Joel, this is Bert. And how we look at gas is how we look at the dynamic nature of our business, and it's just one reflection of that. In terms of how we manage margin, how we manage costs, how we manage CapEx, Gas is a substantial cost for us, and we look at it holistically.

喬爾，這是伯特。我們如何看待天然氣就是我們如何看待我們業務的動態性質，這只是其中的一個反映。就我們如何管理利潤、如何管理成本、如何管理資本支出而言，天然氣對我們來說是一項巨大的成本，我們會從整體上看待它。

And so we have been much more in the cash market in 2024. We do hedge front month for our gas contracts, but we've been much more opportunistic in 2024, believing in the resource base that exists in North America for our system.

因此，到 2024 年，我們將更多地涉足現貨市場。我們確實對我們的天然氣合約進行了前月對沖，但我們在 2024 年更加投機取巧，相信北美為我們的系統提供了豐富的資源基礎。

How we're looking at 2025 is we've approached it very similarly where we were and have been hedging front month for our commitments and then just for the weather volatility of January and February as well. And we anticipate that the gas team will continue to perform very well and position CF in a great place.

我們對 2025 年的看法是，我們採取了與過去非常相似的方法，並對我們的承諾進行了前月避險，然後也對 1 月和 2 月的天氣波動進行了套期保值。我們預計天然氣團隊將繼續表現出色，並為 CF 帶來良好的地位。

And Joel, relative to the second half of your question, I would just say we operate the vast, vast majority of our production capacity in the best place on earth to operate it, which is North America with some of the largest resource, most dependable production and quickest to respond.

喬爾，關於你問題的後半部分，我想說的是，我們的絕大部分生產能力都在地球上最適合運營的地方，那就是北美，這裡有最豐富的資源、最可靠的生產和最快的反應。

And so while we'll continue to evolve our thinking around hedging and Burton and team continue to do that actively. I think that the most important thing is where we built our plans.

因此，我們將繼續改進我們對對沖的想法，而伯頓和團隊也將繼續積極地這樣做。我認為最重要的是我們在哪裡制定計劃。

And then if I can ask a second question. An observation I had last night, and I'd like you to maybe comment on it is you gave -- and I appreciated a new sensitivity table you do every year around now based on 2024 numbers, where you show what your EBITDA level is in a grid for different gas price realizations and different urea price realization.

然後我可以問第二個問題。我昨晚有一個觀察，我想讓你對此發表評論，那就是你給出了——我很欣賞你現在每年都會根據 2024 年的數據製作的新的敏感度表，其中你在網格中顯示了不同天然氣價格實現和不同尿素價格實現的 EBITDA 水平。

It looks like when you look at the '24 table versus '23 table on a similar volume around [90 million tons] at any given cell in that grid to any combination of urea and gas prices, you're pointing to EBITDA being maybe $200 million or $300 million lower. Can you talk about what that means, if it means anything?

看起來，當您將 24 年表格與 23 年表格進行比較，在該網格中任何給定單元格中類似的數量（約 9000 萬噸）對於尿素和天然氣價格的任何組合，您都會指出 EBITDA 可能要低 2 億美元或 3 億美元。你能談談這意味著什麼嗎？

Yeah. So let me just describe how that grid is put together. And it is not meant to be strictly speaking, instructive about what the future holds. It's based on last year's actual product price differentials between ammonia and urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate and the rest of the products and how they fit in there.

是的。讓我描述一下這個網格是如何組合起來的。嚴格來說，它並不意味著可以預示未來會發生什麼。它是基於去年氨與尿素、UAN、硝酸銨和其他產品之間的實際產品價格差異以及它們的匹配。

And so to the extent that in any given year, you see the differential between urea and say, UAN move one direction or the other, that's going to change kind of how that grid is created because there's more or less value than across the system based on selling 1 ton of urea. So it's purely a heuristic it's just a way to kind of sanity check the numbers. It's not a pinpoint estimate of where we're at.

因此，在任何一年中，你都會看到尿素和 UAN 之間的差異朝一個方向移動，這將會改變該網格的創建方式，因為基於銷售 1 噸尿素，整個系統的價值會或多或少。所以它純粹是一種啟發式方法，只是一種對數字進行健全性檢查的方法。這並不是我們所處位置的精確估計。

To do that, you'd really have to get into the details of where gas is really moving kind of across the network, not just in the aggregate because, of course, we're consuming the vast majority of our gas and the combination of Henry Hub and AECO.

要做到這一點，你必須真正了解天然氣在網路中的實際流動情況，而不僅僅是總體情況，因為我們消耗的是絕大多數天然氣以及亨利港和 AECO 的組合。

And so what the other ones with the other pricing points, trade out matters, but it's very specific to the year movements and the product movements. And so you have to get a little more granular, but at the very high level, that gives you kind of directional information of where it is. And that's why it tends to move one year to the next. It's strictly based on the previous year's differentials.

其他定價點也一樣，交易也很重要，但它與年度變動和產品變動非常具體。因此，你必須更加細緻地了解，但在非常高的層次上，這會為你提供它在哪裡的方向性資訊。這就是為什麼它往往會從一年轉到下一年。它嚴格基於前幾年的差異。

Yeah, Joel, this is Chris. The other thing I would add, Tony talked about the price and basically the relationship between each of the products. But additionally, since we are using a look back to 2024, our cost structure is also the 2024 cost structure.

是的，喬爾，這是克里斯。我想補充的另一件事是，托尼談到了價格以及每種產品之間的基本關係。但此外，由於我們回顧 2024 年，我們的成本結構也是 2024 年的成本結構。

And if you recall, in Q1, we had pretty heavy maintenance events where at 1 point, 15 of the 17 ammonia plants needed maintenance, and that was about $100 million to $150 million. So as Tony said, it's really indicative of what you're could see for the year, but it is based off of empirical data rather than what we expect for the go forward.

如果你還記得的話，在第一季度，我們經歷了相當嚴重的維護事件，17 家氨工廠中有 15 家需要維護，花費約 1 億至 1.5 億美元。正如托尼所說，它確實表明了今年你所能看到的情況，但它是基於經驗數據，而不是我們對未來的預期。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯·帕金森（Chris Parkinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

It's actually Andrew sitting in for Chris. How should -- the Street think about 2025 cash conversion and the balance of uses between buybacks and then future CapEx. And then on top of that, would you be able to talk about sort of the potential for long-term offtakes in conjunction with any BluePoint FID. And how does that fit into the picture here as well?

實際上是安德魯代替克里斯。華爾街應該如何看待 2025 年的現金轉換以及回購與未來資本支出之間的用途平衡。除此之外，您能否談談與 BluePoint FID 相關的長期承購潛力？這與這裡的景像有什麼關係呢？

Yeah. Andrew, thanks for the question. It's Greg. I'll start and pass it over to Chris. On the capital allocation for the year, we've outlined where our CapEx is expected to be over $500 million of our normal run. That would obviously change if we went to a positive FID and we'd update you on those numbers when we made that decision.

是的。安德魯，謝謝你的提問。是格雷格。我先開始，然後把它交給克里斯。關於今年的資本配置，我們已經概述了我們的資本支出預計將超過正常運行時間的 5 億美元。如果我們做出積極的 FID，情況顯然會改變，當我們做出決定時，我們會向您通報這些數字。

On the capital allocation, we came into the year with [60 billion] of share repurchase that we expect to get done by the end of the year. And those would be our primary uses of cash. Don't expect any change in difference on our EBITDA conversion rate.

在資本配置方面，我們今年回購了[600億]股，預計在年底前完成。這些就是我們使用現金的主要用途。不要期望我們的 EBITDA 轉換率差異會有任何變化。

We still expect to be very above our peer group on our ability to convert that EBITDA to free cash flow. So no change in that at all. But we'll update you on the CapEx number when and if we make a positive FID and we've already laid out the share repurchase we expect to do for the year.

我們仍然期望將 EBITDA 轉化為自由現金流的能力遠高於我們的同業。因此這一點根本沒有改變。但是，如果我們做出了積極的 FID，並且已經制定了預計在今年進行的股票回購計劃，我們將向您更新資本支出數字。

Yeah, Andrew. And in relation to long-term supply offtake related to the Blue Point project, I think a lot of that's going to be dependent on where we end up from a partnership equity share piece. If we're at the 75% that CF has as we go through, as I mentioned, we are having discussions with other global partners who are interested in this particular facility with an offtake agreement that would happen there.

是的，安德魯。關於與 Blue Point 專案相關的長期供應承購，我認為很大程度上將取決於我們最終從合作夥伴股權份額中獲得什麼。如果我們達到 CF 所擁有的 75%，那麼正如我所提到的，我們正在與對該特定設施感興趣的其他全球合作夥伴進行討論，並在那裡達成一項承購協議。

But if we go with the 40% where we have the Mitsui JERA and CF themselves. A large portion of our product, given that we purchased ammonia already for the UK could find its way going to the UK and that incremental amount that we would have for a long-term offtake contract would probably be smaller. #

但如果我們以 40% 的比例計算，那麼我們就有三井 JERA 和 CF 了。由於我們已經為英國購買了氨，因此我們的大部分產品可能會流向英國，而我們長期承購合約的增量可能會更少。#

So a lot of it's going to be dependent on what is the final ownership structure that we'll know here in the next couple of weeks.

因此，很大程度上將取決於我們將在接下來的幾週內了解的最終所有權結構。

But I would say, back to Chris' point, there's a lot of interest out there. And I think what you've seen is a bunch of these kind of people waiting in or making initial announcements and then getting cold sheet backing of has led a bit of pent-up demand out there.

但我想說，回到克里斯的觀點，人們對此有很多興趣。我認為，你所看到的是，一群這樣的人正在等待或做出初步宣布，然後得到冷淡的支持，這導致了一些被壓抑的需求。

And so if we ultimately do go forward with a positive FID decision here, I would expect there to be more than adequate demand for the production that's that we have left.

因此，如果我們最終確實做出積極的 FID 決定，我預計我們剩下的產量將有足夠的需求。

Richard Garchitorena. Wells Fargo.

理查德·加奇托雷納。富國銀行。

Great. Just to follow-up on the Blue Point. Obviously, FEED study sudy completed negotiating with the partners, still nothing determined yet. But I mean it sounds that basically the outlook from a demand and market perspective, you've found to be I guess, positive for the project.

偉大的。只是為了跟進藍點。顯然，FEED研究已經與合作夥伴完成了談判，但尚未確定任何事情。但我的意思是，從需求和市場角度來看，你發現這個專案的前景基本上是正面的。

So I guess in terms of final decision, how much does the potential for 45Q to be changed. I don't have any impact at all? Is it really just a function of marking down where you want to stay in terms of your equity stake whether it's 40% to 75%. And then in terms of just all the final decisions with the partners getting ratified?

所以我猜想就最終決定而言，45Q 改變的可能性有多大。我一點影響都沒有啊？這是否真的只是一個標記你想保留的股權比例的功能，無論是 40% 還是 75%？那麼所有最終決定是否都得到了合作夥伴的批准？

Yeah. I mean I think the big issue there -- obviously, the 45Q is a benefit to the project and the required ammonia price to earn above cost of capital return would go up if we didn't have the 45Q. But there's nothing really that we're seeing on our end when our government folks talk to people in Washington that indicates to us that the 45Q is in jeopardy.

是的。我的意思是，我認為那裡的大問題是——顯然，45Q 對項目有益，如果我們沒有 45Q，那麼獲得高於資本成本的回報所需的氨價格就會上漲。但是，當我們的政府人員與華盛頓的人士交談時，我們並沒有看到任何跡象表明 45Q 處於危險之中。

I think if you were banking on an EV subsidy or credit, then you'd have to think twice about it. I think the 45Z and 45V potentially have a little more risk, but there's really been no news from our perspective that jeopardizes the 45Q.

我認為，如果您依賴電動車補貼或信貸，那麼您必須三思而後行。我認為 45Z 和 45V 可能有更多風險，但從我們的角度來看，還沒有任何消息會危及 45Q。

So we're pretty confident that, that's going to stay in place and we're making plans accordingly. But there's a lot of moving pieces out there, and there's a lot of policy things that are uncertain at the moment, of all the policy issues, I think that one we feel probably the most certain of.

因此我們非常有信心，這種情況將會持續下去，並且我們正在製定相應的計劃。但目前還存在著許多變數，許多政策目前還不確定，在所有的政策議題中，我認為這可能是我們最確定的問題。

And I do think what is kind of not delaying, but the process that we're going through is really dotting eyes and crossing teas on all of the subsidiary contracts that go along with being able to actually build and move the thing forward. It's not so much with the partnership structure themselves because we feel really good about that. It's just kind of getting all of the other EPC kind of stuff done.

我確實認為這並不是拖延，我們正在經歷的過程實際上是對所有附屬合約進行審核和協調，以便能夠實際構建和推動事情向前發展。這與合作夥伴結構本身關係不大，因為我們對此感覺非常良好。這只是完成所有其他 EPC 類別的工作而已。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

瑞銀的盧卡斯·博蒙特（Lucas Beaumont）。

So I just want to continue on the Blue Point project. So depending on what you guys kind of come in there on that equity range, if you guy ahead it could be quite -- it's a pretty wide range from sort of $2 billion up to maybe $3.5 billion or so.

所以我只是想繼續藍點專案。因此，這取決於你們在股權範圍內所佔的比例，如果你們領先，那麼股權範圍可能會相當大——從 20 億美元到 35 億美元左右，這是一個相當大的範圍。

I think what we previously sort of discussed the outlook there, it was assumed it would probably get built over the four years in the capital commitments more sort of back half weighted. So just given the kind of the range you're putting out there now, I was just wondering how you'd look to kind of fund that?

我認為，我們之前討論過那裡的前景，假設它可能會在四年內建成，資本承諾將更多地採用後半部分加權。所以考慮到您現在所推出的範圍，我只是想知道您將如何為其提供資金？

Would you sort of add some more debt in there to do that? I mean, it looks like potentially depending where sort of market prices are, you could do it out of cash flow if you sort of didn't have any repurchases anymore, but just wanted to kind of get your latest thoughts on sort of how (inaudible)

您是否會增加一些債務來實現這一點？我的意思是，這看起來可能取決於市場價格，如果你不再有任何回購，你可以用現金流來做這件事，但我只是想聽聽你對如何（聽不清楚）

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Luke. It's Greg. So when we look forward and look at the commitment, you're right, it's going to be determined by the size of the equity we have commitment and where that ultimately ends up. If you looked at it at the 40% and you thought about it over four years, and even including the common facilities, it's roughly about $500 million that we would need to create in addition.

是的。謝謝你的提問，盧克。是格雷格。因此，當我們展望未來並審視承諾時，您是對的，它將取決於我們承諾的股權規模以及最終的結果。如果你以 40% 的比例來算，並且考慮四年的時間，甚至包括公共設施，那麼我們需要額外創造大約 5 億美元。

Given where we are on a free cash flow basis and the investments that we tend to make within our network on a year-to-year basis, including the growth CapEx that we put in it's not dramatically larger. It's obviously larger, but not dramatically larger.

考慮到我們的自由現金流基礎以及我們每年在網路中進行的投資，包括我們投入的成長資本支出，並沒有大幅增加。它顯然更大，但並沒有大很多。

So as we think about where we are from a capital standpoint, we've got $3 billion of debt. We've obviously got some of that coming due next year that we'll have to look into. But there's a bunch of options as we think about how we would fund it, first, starting with the cash that we have on the balance sheet and we go to cash from operations.

因此，當我們從資本角度考慮我們所處的情況時，我們有 30 億美元的債務。顯然，明年我們將不得不考慮其中一些問題。但當我們考慮如何為其提供資金時，有很多選擇，首先，從我們資產負債表上的現金開始，然後從經營活動中獲得現金。

And to the extent we would want to think about building some more security, there's a number of instruments we could look at to pull in, and we're in the process of evaluating that all right now.

就我們想要考慮建立更多的安全性而言，我們可以考慮採用多種工具，現在我們正在對其進行評估。

I mean I think if you just look at last year, we generated $1.4 billion of free cash. And we're going to spend $1 billion as Greg said on or a little over on share repo. That still leaves a big chunk to be able to deploy against the other uses of cash, and we ended the year with over $1.6 billion of cash on the balance sheet.

我的意思是，如果你看看去年，我們創造了 14 億美元的免費現金。正如格雷格所說，我們將在股票回購上花費 10 億美元或略多。但仍有很大一部分資金可以用於其他現金用途，到年底，我們的資產負債表上有超過 16 億美元的現金。

So our uses of cash this year, even though we're going to buy $1 billion of shares back out of the market is not going to dip very hard into our cash on the balance sheet and during this period of time. We have indications that the pricing environment today is stronger than it was a year ago.

因此，儘管我們今年要從市場上回購價值 10 億美元的股票，但在此期間，我們的現金使用不會嚴重消耗資產負債表上的現金。我們有跡象表明，今天的定價環境比一年前更加強勁。

And so that portends very well for cash gen in 2025 versus 2024. So I think all of that is a way of saying we think the business model is kind of hitting really well, and it gives us a lot of flexibility in terms of how we think about financing a potential project should we go forward.

因此，這預示著 2025 年與 2024 年相比，現金產生情況將非常好。所以我認為，所有這些都表明我們認為這種商業模式確實很成功，並且它為我們在考慮如何為潛在專案融資方面提供了巨大的靈活性。

Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Andrew Wong。

So long-term focus for CF has been on increasing nitrogen production or participation per share over time, which has gone up pretty significantly. When you look at Blue Point given the increase in CapEx, while the shares are roughly flat year-over-year right now, like how would you compare the project versus potentially using that cash for more of buybacks in terms of raising that nitrogen per share metric? And how does that factor into your decision on BluePoint.

因此，CF 的長期重點是隨著時間的推移增加氮產量或每股參與量，而這一數字已經大幅上升。當您看到 Blue Point 的資本支出增加時，儘管其股價目前與去年同期相比基本持平，那麼在提高每股氮氣指標方面，您如何比較該項目與可能使用該現金進行更多回購？這對您對 BluePoint 的決定有何影響？

Yeah. I mean, Andrew, I think throughout our this management team's time together, you could have made that comment about anything that's gone on, whether it was the acquisition of Terra back in 2009, '10, whether it was the construction of our capacity expansion projects back in the '12 to '16 time frame, the acquisition of the 1/3 of Medicine Hat that we didn't own or the 15% of the Verdigris plant that was traded as an MLP.

是的。我的意思是，安德魯，我認為在我們這個管理團隊共事期間，你可以對發生的任何事情發表評論，無論是 2009 年、2010 年收購 Terra，還是 2012 年至 2016 年期間產能擴張項目的建設，還是收購我們不擁有的 Medicine Hat 的 1/3 股份，或者作為 Messris 交易的工廠交易。

I mean, any of those things you could have made that same argument for and yet look at the share growth in terms of value we've created over that period of time. And so I think the general strategy and philosophy of if we can deploy capital in our core business and earn above the cost of capital rate of return.

我的意思是，你可以對任何這些事情提出同樣的論點，然後從我們在那段時間內創造的價值的角度來看待份額增長。因此，我認為，整體策略和理念是，如果我們能夠在核心業務中部署資本，並獲得高於資本成本的回報率。

And then for capital that is in excess of that, we take down share count. That is a winning formula. And if you look at our 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 year TSR against all of our competitive set, we blow them out of the water. So it's just -- it's a winning formula.

然後，對於超出該金額的資本，我們會減少股數。這是一個成功的秘訣。如果您將我們的 1、3、5、7、10 年 TSR 與所有競爭對手進行比較，您會發現我們的表現遠勝於它們。所以這只是——這是一個成功的秘訣。

If we can stick on it and be very focused to deploy capital in things that we do better than anyone else, which is running ammonia plants. We're going to perform better over the long run, and that's how we're focused on running this company.

如果我們能夠堅持下去，並高度集中地將資本投入到我們比其他任何人都更擅長的領域，那就是營運氨工廠。從長遠來看，我們會表現得更好，這就是我們專注於經營這家公司的方式。

Okay. Great. And maybe just one more on Blue Point. The commentary in the past would highlight how the project can make a good. Even now (inaudible) can make a good risk-adjusted return even without an offtake or some sort of blue ammonia premium.

好的。偉大的。也許還有一篇關於 Blue Point 的文章。過去的評論會強調該項目如何產生效益。即使現在（聽不清楚）即使沒有承購或某種藍氨溢價也可以獲得良好的風險調整回報。

And I understand you're looking at that and you're still thinking that, that's going to be the case. But CapEx has gone up quite significantly from the beginning of when we started seeing some of the numbers like last year, like -- what's changed on that return profile, so that's still the case.

我知道你正在看著這件事，並且仍然認為情況就是這樣。但從我們開始看到一些數字（例如去年的數據）以來，資本支出已經大幅上升，例如回報率情況發生了什麼變化，所以情況仍然如此。

Well, I mean, it's really based on where ammonia pricing is in the market. And as Greg mentioned earlier, the -- what we need is an ammonia price of [4.50 ] per [met], so call it [4.10] per short. And the average selling price we had in last year was above that. And so where the market is right now would support a project with and above the cost of capital rate of return.

嗯，我的意思是，這實際上是基於市場上氨的定價。正如 Greg 先前所提到的，我們需要的是每公噸 [4.50] 的氨價格，所以稱之為每短 [4.10]。我們去年的平均售價高於這個水準。因此，目前的市場狀況將支持資本成本回報率高於資本成本回報率的項目。

And we expect, as Chris mentioned, the market to tighten rather than get slack. And so there's a lot about just the industry fundamentals that we feel we're in the best place to really be able to exploit, again, given our operating history with these kind of assets.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們預計市場將會收緊而不是鬆弛。因此，考慮到我們在這些資產上的營運歷史，我們認為我們處於可以真正利用行業基本面的最佳位置。

The other thing I would say is Bert has done a great job of being out there working with customers on the low carbon intensity or blue product coming out of Donaldsonville that we're going to be generating here later this year. And he is seeing an ability for the market to pay a premium on that. So that's before we even get into the premium we're just saying we can -- this project is an interesting investment for us before the premium.

我想說的另一件事是，伯特在與客戶合作開發唐納森維爾的低碳強度或藍色產品方面做得非常出色，我們將於今年稍後在這裡生產這些產品。他認為市場有能力為此支付溢價。所以，在我們獲得溢價之前，我們只是說我們可以——這個項目對我們來說是一項有趣的投資。

The other thing I would add, this is Chris, is that when we were looking at some of those CapEx numbers about a year ago, those CapEx were based on SMR technology, so existing what we have in our plants. The ATR technology will give us two different things: one, about 10% more in production, even just that nameplate than what we're producing on our other units.

我想補充的另一件事是，克里斯說，大約一年前，當我們查看一些資本支出數字時，這些資本支出是基於 SMR 技術，也就是我們工廠現有的技術。ATR 技術將為我們帶來兩件不同的事情：第一，產量比我們其他單位生產的產量高出約 10%，即使只是銘牌產量。

And then also 50% greater carbon capture with the 45Q that allows a significant benefit there. So with those two additional pieces put in, I would also say, if you've been falling CF long enough, you would understand that we're a pretty conservative company and we model things straight. So we haven't taken into account increased utilization rates, which we've been able to perform on not only assets we built but assets we've acquired.

45Q 的碳捕獲量也增加了 50%，帶來了顯著的效益。因此，加上這兩個額外的部分，我還想說，如果你已經使用 CF 很久了，你就會明白，我們是一家相當保守的公司，我們會直接建模。因此，我們沒有考慮到提高利用率，我們不僅能夠對我們建造的資產而且能夠對我們收購的資產實現這一目標。

Additionally, if there is any low carbon premium that Tony announced or it suggested there -- and then lastly would be anything related to the CBAM, that would give us a bit of a fast mover advantage where we'd see additional margin.

此外，如果 Tony 宣布或建議任何低碳溢價——最後是與 CBAM 相關的任何事情，這將為我們提供一點快速行動優勢，我們將看到額外的利潤。

And then lastly, I'd just add this new technology and what we'd be doing is why we have the partners we have. It's fostering new demand that just makes that balance that we believe is tight enough just with conventional ammonia all the tighter by the time this particular plant comes online.

最後，我想補充這項新技術以及我們要做的事情，這就是我們擁有合作夥伴的原因。它正在培育新的需求，使得我們認為僅使用傳統氨就已經足夠緊密的平衡，到該特定工廠投入運作時，這種平衡將變得更加緊密。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

I wanted to ask a little bit more on some of the fundamentals for 2025. Specifically, your expectation of things really remaining quite tight. The cost curve has changed or at least been fairly volatile over the last several weeks.

我想進一步詢問一些有關 2025 年的基本問題。具體來說，你對事情的期望確實保持得相當嚴格。過去幾週，成本曲線已經發生變化，或至少相當不穩定。

I'm just wondering, can you speak to what your expectations are in terms of the cost curve now with a potential resolution between US and Ukraine on the table? And then I have a follow-up question.

我只是想知道，鑑於美國和烏克蘭之間可能達成解決方案，您能否談談您對目前成本曲線的預期？然後我有一個後續問題。

Yeah, this is Bert. And we do see the fundamentals. They have improved and they are improving. When you look at what has transpired globally, you do have a tight nitrogen balance. And that's driven by very healthy demand in India and Brazil and a lot of secondary countries like secondary in terms of demand of urea.

是的，這是伯特。我們確實看到了基本面。他們已經進步了，而且還在不斷進步。如果你看看全球發生的情況，你會發現氮平衡確實很緊張。這是由印度、巴西和許多二級國家對尿素的需求旺盛所推動的。

Australia, Argentina, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey had pulled more in 2024 than they have historically. And then you look at the tight corn balance that we've talked about for stock-to-use ratios whether that's domestic or globally and where we are, it's very comparison to 2012 or 2013, where we saw a very nice rally in the price of corn, that's driving acres and additional acres to corn.

2024 年，澳洲、阿根廷、南非、泰國和土耳其的出口額超過了歷史最高水準。然後你會看到，我們談到的玉米庫存與使用比率的緊張平衡，無論是國內還是全球，以及我們所處的情況，與2012年或2013年非常相似，當時我們看到玉米價格大幅上漲，推動了玉米種植面積的不斷增加。

And I would have said a couple of months ago, we would have expected 90 million, 91 million acres of corn. And today, we've talked about 93 million, but I would say that's to the positive.

幾個月前我就說過，我們預計玉米種植面積將達到 9,000 萬至 9,100 萬英畝。今天，我們談論的是 9300 萬，我想說這是積極的一面。

And every 1 million acres that comes in is just additional nitrogen demand that has to be satisfied. And to date, we're behind in North America, we're behind on imports of urea or UAN, and we're very close to the beginning spring application season that could begin as early as March.

每增加 100 萬英畝土地，就需要滿足額外的氮需求。到目前為止，我們在北美落後，我們在尿素或 UAN 的進口方面落後，而且我們非常接近可能早在三月就開始的春季應用季節。

And so that product has to be put into position for supply. So tight North America, tight globally and the fundamentals of where we are with gas in Europe. Europe production is down or some of it, 20% to 30% of it is. And so you have a tight demand market for the products that use nitrogen being corn, you have a tight supply market with product needed in a number of places, and if there's an India tender in the next couple of weeks, it gets even tighter.

因此該產品必須投入供應。北美天然氣供應緊張，全球天然氣供應緊張，歐洲天然氣供應基本面也緊張。歐洲的產量下降，大概是20%到30%。因此，對於使用氮的產品（如玉米），市場需求緊張；而對於許多地方都需要該產品，市場供應也緊張。

And so relative to the cost curve then, we're at $3 to $4 gas in North America and the world for LNG or JKM or TTF being Japan and Europe are at $14 to $15. So your cost curve, you need to bid in very expensive tons to satisfy this global demand that's coming.

因此相對於成本曲線，北美的天然氣價格為 3 至 4 美元，而全球 LNG 或 JKM 或 TTF（日本和歐洲）的價格為 14 至 15 美元。因此，在成本曲線上，你需要以非常昂貴的噸位競標才能滿足即將到來的全球需求。

And your last question about Russia and Ukraine I would say it really doesn't matter right now. those Russian tons have been making them out throughout the last couple of years even with sanctions.

關於你最後一個問題，關於俄羅斯和烏克蘭，我想說這現在真的不重要。儘管受到製裁，但過去幾年俄羅斯的石油產量仍然保持強勁。

And I would just say, we certainly all hope for a resolution to the conflict and ending the suffering and damage going on over there. To Bert's point, all of the Russian production is making its way out into the global marketplace. So that doesn't change.

我想說，我們當然都希望解決衝突，結束那裡的苦難和破壞。正如伯特所說，所有俄羅斯產品都正在進入全球市場。所以這並沒有改變。

And our expectation is it would take quite some time to get additional production, whether that be Eastern Europe or Western Europe or even Ukraine kind of back up and running, and it's going to miss the first half of the application season in the Northern Hemisphere anyway.

我們預計，無論是東歐、西歐或烏克蘭，都需要相當長一段時間才能恢復生產，而且無論如何，它都會錯過北半球應用季節的前半段。

And so from our perspective, the first half, while I wouldn't call it baked yet is looking very positive based on the factors that Bert just highlighted there. but we're certainly all hoping for peaceful resolution to that and other conflicts going on.

因此，從我們的角度來看，雖然我還不能稱之為上半年已經完成，但基於伯特剛才強調的因素，上半年看起來非常積極。但我們當然都希望這個問題以及其他正在發生的衝突能夠得到和平解決。

One follow-up question related to your own production. You did call out some of the maintenance costs last year, some of the shutdown time that you experienced in Q1. Just anything we should be thinking about here in the first quarter in some of the earlier ice storms across the Southeast and how that will compare or influence your [ton-ton] to outlook?

一個後續問題與您自己的作品有關。您確實提到了去年的一些維護成本，以及第一季經歷的一些停工時間。我們應該在第一季考慮東南部早些時候發生的一些冰暴，以及這些冰暴將如何影響您的 [ton-ton] 前景？

Yeah. So as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, through Q1, so far, the manufacturing operations have been operating just as well as they were in Q4, even with some of the significant weather events, some of that's from the learnings that we had last year. and just the team is doing an outstanding job at the particular sites. So the 10 million-ton gross ammonia number, which is higher than the 9.8 million we did this year is still our expectation for full year 2025.

是的。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，到目前為止，透過第一季度，製造業務的運作情況與第四季度一樣好，即使經歷了一些重大天氣事件，其中一些是我們去年學到的教訓。該團隊在特定站點上表現出色。因此，1000 萬噸的總合成氨產量（高於今年的 980 萬噸）仍然是我們對 2025 年全年的預期。

Stephen Byrne, Bank of America Securities.

美國銀行證券公司的史蒂芬‧伯恩 (Stephen Byrne)。

Yes. Bert, I'd like to hear your view on your order book through the rest of the first quarter and what that order book looks like for the second quarter? How would you compare it to historical levels as of mid-February. And does this reflect your views for being -- the US being behind on imports?

是的。伯特，我想聽聽您對第一季剩餘時間的訂單情況的看法，以及第二季的訂單情況如何？您如何將其與二月中旬的歷史水平進行比較？這是否反映了您對於美國進口落後的看法？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Steve. And we're pleased with our order book. I think the team has done a great job of watching participating and layering in. Normally, in this time of year, we try to be -- I'd say most periods were one to two months sold or with orders on the books.

是的，謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。我們對我們的訂單非常滿意。我認為球隊在觀察、參與和分層方面做得很好。通常，在每年的這個時候，我們都會嘗試——我想說大多數時期都是一到兩個月的銷售或有訂單。

I think this year has been a little bit different because of the positive anticipation that we saw with -- relative to the last question on a tight market and some dynamics globally that are taking place. And we positioned ourselves well and have been capturing as the market has escalated. What you've seen over the last 8 weeks has been pretty amazing.

我認為今年的情況略有不同，因為我們看到了積極的預期——相對於上一個問題，市場緊張，全球正在發生的一些動態。我們定位準確，並且隨著市場的升級而不斷佔領市場。過去 8 週你所見到的事情相當令人驚奇。

We've seen $100 rally in urea at NOLA from about [320 to 420], which is since doled out. But we believe that you're going to see additional demand. We're behind on imports, as I said earlier, and we believe you need to bring in 700,000 to 800,000 tons per month, March, April, May to satisfy demand as well as domestic production to remain fully operating.

我們看到新奧爾良的尿素價格上漲了 100 美元，從約 [320 漲至 420] 美元，此後一直呈下降趨勢。但我們相信你會看到額外的需求。正如我之前所說，我們的進口落後，我們認為需要在3月、4月和5月每月進口70萬至80萬噸才能滿足需求，同時確保國內生產的全面運作。

And so as we look to Q2, we've got a lot of open orders to satisfy, and we'll be executing that into the market. And as Chris said earlier, our plans are operating at 100% and we're positioning product now for that eventual demand. So that gives you the Q1, Q2 outlook.

展望第二季度，我們有很多未完成的訂單需要滿足，我們將在市場上執行這些訂單。正如克里斯之前所說，我們的計劃正在 100% 實施，我們現在正在根據最終需求定位產品。這為您提供了 Q1、Q2 的展望。

Very good. And I just wanted to follow up a little bit on the brownfield project, a diesel for the blue ammonia. Do you have any idea when that actually could start up. I'm not sure whether you're still in installation or whether you are in commissioning mode, but do you have a better idea when that might start?

非常好。我只是想稍微跟進一下棕地項目，即藍色氨的柴油。你知道它什麼時候才能真正啟動嗎？我不確定您是否仍處於安裝狀態或是否處於調試模式，但您是否有更好的想法何時開始？

And perhaps more importantly, do you have an order book for that blue ammonia that you could be selling some time this year? And does it not make some sense to wait for that to be on stream and to see what demand really looks like when you have that product available before you commit to FID on the greenfield project.

也許更重要的是，您是否有今年某個時候可以出售的藍色氨的訂單簿？在對綠地專案做出 FID 承諾之前，等待產品投入生產並觀察產品上市後的實際需求情況，這不是很有意義嗎？

I think there's a bunch of questions in there. We'll start off with how the dehydration compression plant coming, when you go on and then what's the what's the premium or the demand profile look like. And then I'll finish up with the answer to the last one. But (inaudible)

我認為其中有很多問題。我們首先會了解脫水壓縮工廠的運作情況，然後再了解溢價或需求概況。然後我將完成最後一個問題的答案。但（聽不清楚）

Steve, this is Chris. So we're continuing. We are not in commissioning yet, so we're still in installation, but our expectation is that we will finish that here in the second quarter. And what we're looking at is that we're being commissioning and ready to begin sequestering it really second quarter, first half -- second half of the year here as we look at that we continue to work with Exxon as they're evaluating different areas for their Class six permit that they have in there, given the flexibility they have with the Denbury pipeline.

史蒂夫，這是克里斯。所以我們繼續。我們尚未調試，因此我們仍在安裝，但我們預計將在第二季完成安裝。而我們現在所看到的是，我們正在進行調試，並準備在第二季度、上半年以及下半年開始封存，我們將繼續與埃克森美孚合作，因為他們正在評估他們擁有的六級許可證的不同區域，考慮到他們在丹伯里管道方面的靈活性。

So all that continues to move well. And so I would say our estimation is by second half of this year, we'll have low carbon product that we can feed to Bert his team.

一切進展順利。因此我估計到今年下半年，我們將推出低碳產品，可以提供給 Bert 和他的團隊。

And regarding the premium, we've been actively discussing marketing and preparing for that, whether that be ammonia or an upgraded product. And I think the first mover, it looks to be industrial where we have a number of participants or customers desiring to have low carbon products in their system.

關於溢價，我們一直在積極討論行銷並為此做準備，無論是氨還是升級產品。我認為，先行者是工業領域，我們有許多參與者或客戶希望在他們的系統中使用低碳產品。

And then we're working, obviously, agriculturally with our co-op and retail customers to market a whole package to the farming community of how that can benefit their system and their carbon scores. And so yes, I do believe there will be a premium. And yes, that product is coming for the back half of the year.

然後，顯然，我們正在與我們的合作社和零售客戶進行農業合作，向農業社區推銷一整套產品，說明這將如何使他們的系統和碳積分受益。所以是的，我確實相信會有溢價。是的，該產品將於今年下半年上市。

And finally, Steve, because of the success Bird has had and the level of interest that he's had, we don't need to wait until we're producing it. We've already got registration of interest from more parties than we have tons to be able to sell at this point.

最後，史蒂夫，由於《伯德》已經取得的成功以及人們對它的濃厚興趣，我們不需要等到製作它的時候才這麼做。目前，我們已經獲得了許多各方的興趣登記，能夠出售的貨物已經很多了。

And again, let me just remind you of the kind of the math on the new project. So if it's 1.4 million tons, and we get a 50% share, just say, as a number. We're looking at 700,000 as Chris mentioned, we're going to consume 350,000 tons of that in our upgrade at plants in the UK.

再次，讓我提醒您新專案的數學類型。如果是 140 萬噸，我們獲得 50% 的份額，那麼就只是一個數字而已。正如克里斯所提到的，我們預計產量為 70 萬噸，我們將在英國工廠的升級過程中消耗其中的 35 萬噸。

So we'll have a low-carbon AN product in the UK with access to the European market. that only leaves us 300,000, 350,000 tons left to go in terms of places to sell it, and we have more than enough interest to be able to move that because we've already got expressions of interest that can consume the full 2 million tons coming out of Deville.

因此，我們將在英國推出低碳 AN 產品並進入歐洲市場。這樣一來，可供我們銷售的煤炭就只剩下 30 萬到 35 萬噸了，而我們對銷售這些煤炭的興趣已經足夠了，因為我們已經獲得了可以消費德維爾產出的全部 200 萬噸煤炭的興趣表示。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Just on Blue Point, if I could ask you, Tony, the $4 billion and the $500 million, I assume that's the standard midpoint of -- there's plus or minus 15% on that? Or is there something different about this? And is there any part of that, that you think you can really lock in, whether it's labor, equipment, what have you to really sort of ring-fence the risk around that estimate moving too far in the wrong direction?

就 Blue Point 而言，如果我可以問你，托尼，40 億美元和 5 億美元，我假設那是標準中點 - 其上下浮動 15％ 嗎？或者說這有什麼不同嗎？您認為其中是否有任何部分可以真正鎖定，無論是勞動力還是設備，您有什麼可以真正防範估算偏離錯誤方向的風險？

Yeah, Vincent, thanks for the question. This is a little bit different than the midpoint of the estimate. We sort of learned our lesson last time when we began this -- the projects back in 2012, which was more or less the midpoint.

是的，文森特，謝謝你的提問。這與估計的中點略有不同。上次我們開始做這個計畫時，我們已經學到教訓了──2012 年的項目，差不多是中間點。

And then we saw escalation happen and it was a painful process to have to get out there on conference calls and talk about both delays and overruns. So I would call this a number that we're putting forward to the marketplace that we feel highly confident in our ability to achieve and there's quite a bit of contingency baked into that.

然後我們看到事態升級，不得不透過電話會議討論延誤和超支的問題，這是一個痛苦的過程。因此，我認為這是我們向市場提出的數字，我們對自己實現這個數字的能力非常有信心，而且這個數字中包含了相當多的應急因素。

So if you just think about the $4 billion for the plant itself, we are taking a different approach. The previous projects were what I would call stick construction where everything was individually built. And in this approach, we're doing more modular construction where large sections of the plant will be constructed overseas shipped here, and then they're basically positioned and put together.

因此，如果你只考慮工廠本身的 40 億美元，我們採取的是不同的方法。以前的專案是我所說的木造建築，所有東西都是單獨建造的。透過這種方法，我們進行更模組化的建設，工廠的大部分將在海外建造並運送到這裡，然後進行基本定位和組裝。

Because of that, we can take almost $2 billion of the production and have it be lump-sum fixed in terms of these module construction. So the amount of kind of potential open to overrun is dramatically reduced in this instance relative to the way we approach these in the past.

因此，我們可以從生產中拿出近 20 億美元，並在這些模組建設方面一次性固定下來。因此，與我們過去的處理方式相比，這次超支的可能性大大降低了。

And then there's other sections whether it's the ammonia storage tanks or the docs or a variety of other things that we can convert into fixed fee kind of arrangements as well. So there's much less, I would call at risk in that quote, which is why we're highly confident we can deliver the project.

然後還有其他部分，無論是氨儲罐還是文件或各種其他東西，我們也可以將其轉換為固定費用的安排。因此，我認為風險要小得多，這也是我們非常有信心完成該專案的原因。

And the only thing I would add to that is, on those last projects, what really caused the cost overrun was the labor expense. And as Tony mentioned, with process modules, a lot of that labor percentage is going to be significantly lower than what we've seen in the past.

我唯一想補充的是，在最後的那些項目中，真正導致成本超支的是勞動費用。正如東尼所提到的，採用流程模組後，許多勞動力所佔比例將比我們過去看到的要低得多。

So for instance, on those particular projects, we may have had 5,000 contractors on site at 1 point. In this particular one, maybe at peak, we had 1,500 because so much of it would already be modularized. And that, we feel comfortable within that contingency.

例如，在那些特定專案中，我們可能在某一時刻有 5,000 名承包商在現場。在這個特定的案例中，可能在高峰期，我們有 1,500 個，因為其中許多已經模組化了。而且，我們對這種意外情況感到安心。

The other part I would say that is probably one of the primary differences just beyond the experience the team has with doing the last projects is, we did a complete FEED study this time. We've been analyzing this for over two years, what would be the best technology, understanding exactly how we would go about doing this.

我想說的另一點可能是除了團隊上一個專案的經驗之外的主要區別之一是，我們這次進行了完整的 FEED 研究。我們已經分析這個問題兩年多了，想知道什麼是最好的技術，確切地了解我們將如何做到這一點。

If you think about the last project, our speed to move as fast as we could, we didn't even have full FEED studies on those particulars. So I think the planning process the reduction in actual construction labor time is going to be helpful in this as well.

如果你想想上一個項目，我們盡可能快地推進，我們甚至沒有對這些細節進行完整的 FEED 研究。因此我認為規劃過程中實際施工勞動時間的減少也將對此有所幫助。

Okay. And just as a follow-up on the 40% versus 75%. I mean it sounds like you're very confident in terms of the demand outlook and so forth. So I'm just curious why -- what's going to drive the delta for you between the 40% and 75%? I mean, in one case, you have complete control over the project. In the other case, you don't. So what makes it in your best interest to bring it down to 40% versus just going out.

好的。作為對 40% 與 75% 的比較的後續。我的意思是，聽起來你對需求前景等非常有信心。所以我很好奇為什麼——是什麼導致了 40% 和 75% 之間的差異？我的意思是，在一種情況下，您可以完全控制專案。在另一種情況下，則不需要。那麼，與其直接出去，不如將其降至 40% 對您最有利。

Yeah. I think to be sort of perfectly honest, whether it's with one partner or two and we have received very strong degree of confidence that it's going to be both partners. And because we have been on this journey for such a long time, we've made a commitment to them that they're in if they want to be in.

是的。我認為，坦白說，無論是與一個合作夥伴還是兩個合作夥伴，我們都有很大的信心雙方都會合作。而且由於我們已在這條道路上前進了很長時間，我們向他們承諾，只要他們願意，我們就會加入。

And so -- but you're not over the finish line until everyone signs on the dotted line and you make an announcement, but that's the difference. And at the end of the day, Vincent, part of what we're trying to do with this first plant is to help spur development of new applications for clean ammonia because we think that's just good for our business in general, good for the world from an environment standpoint.

所以 —— 但直到每個人都在虛線上簽字並且你做出宣布之前，你都不算越過終點線，但這就是區別所在。總而言之，文森特，我們建造第一家工廠的目的之一就是幫助促進清潔氨的新應用的開發，因為我們認為這對我們的業務總體有利，從環境的角度來看也對世界有利。

And having more people involved that are going to be direct to consumers and take this all the way to its final use, is, I think, good in helping develop this marketplace. And so we're doing a little, I would call primary demand stimulation by having these people participate with us.

我認為，讓更多人參與進來，直接面向消費者，並將其推廣到最終用途，有利於發展這個市場。因此，我們做了一些我稱之為主要需求刺激的事情，就是讓這些人與我們一起參與。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Quick one for me. I think earlier, Bert, you talked about the positive drivers for the nitrogen market. Like do you see any risk at all that could have an impact on supply demand and prices? Like any concerns whatsoever that we should be thinking of?

對我來說很快。伯特，我想你之前談到了氮氣市場的積極驅動因素。您是否認為有任何風險會對供需和價格產生影響？就像我們應該考慮的任何問題一樣？

Thanks for the question, Edlain. And I always look at the risks. And I always probably pay -- I'm probably a nitrogen nerve when it comes to following the global markets and the users, suppliers, consumers and where that's going to go and how it's going to go.

謝謝你的提問，艾德萊恩。我總是關注風險。我可能總是關注——當談到關注全球市場和用戶、供應商、消費者，以及它們將走向何方和如何發展時，我可能就是一條氮神經。

And we modeled that out on a continual basis with what's going on in the world and feathering in the geopolitical impacts. And so where we are on the drivers, it is a strict supply and demand market today as we're quickly approaching the Northern Hemisphere demand, we believe Europe is undersupplied or the Northern Hemisphere over there.

我們根據世界上正在發生的事件以及地緣政治的影響，不斷地對此進行建模。因此，就我們目前的驅動因素而言，今天的市場是嚴格的供需市場，因為我們正在迅速接近北半球的需求，我們認為歐洲或北半球的供應不足。

And we believe North America in the United States is undersupplied with the positive dynamic of the nitrogen-consuming crops, not only prices increasing, which is profitability to the farmer, which is then willingness to further utilize nitrogen capabilities for crop yields, you have that dynamic that maybe a couple of years with the stock use ratios that we talked about earlier on corn.

我們認為，北美的氮消耗作物供應不足，這不僅會提高價格，還會給農民帶來盈利，使他們願意進一步利用氮來提高作物產量，這種動態可能會持續幾年，就像我們之前在玉米上討論的庫存利用率一樣。

And so there are always risks on the up and down side where I'd say on the supply side with potential outages due to gas or geopolitical issues that we've seen in Ukraine or just limits or -- and then it's economic. Do customers purchase at the right time, have it at the right place when it's needed and are there spot differentials that take place.

因此，總是存在上行和下行風險，我認為在供應方面，由於烏克蘭出現的天然氣或地緣政治問題，可能會中斷，或只是限制，然後是經濟方面。客戶是否在正確的時間進行購買，並在需要時將其送到正確的地點，並且是否存在現貨差異。

And we believe that will happen in the United States with the different -- the normal differentials to NOLA to the Midwest to Canada have already expanded and may expand even more. So we do see a positive first half. And as Tony said, earlier in the second half, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

我們相信這也會在美國發生，不同之處在於——新奧爾良、美國中西部和加拿大之間的正常差距已經擴大，並且可能會進一步擴大。因此我們確實看到上半年呈現正面勢頭。正如托尼在下半場早些時候所說的那樣，我們到時候再來解決它。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Still a little puzzled about the sequestration of carbon dioxide from Donaldsonville I don't think any bundy has been granted a classic permit to sequester carbon dioxide. And even if you are granted a Class VI permit, then you have to build the well. So how is it that you can sequester carbon dioxide sometime in 2025. or by sequester, do you mean enhanced oil recovery.

對於唐納森維爾二氧化碳封存的問題我仍然有些困惑，我認為沒有任何邦迪公司獲得了封存二氧化碳的傳統許可證。即使你獲得了 VI 級許可證，你也必須建造水井。那麼你如何在 2025 年的某個時候封存二氧化碳呢？

Jeff, this is Chris. I think in both instances, it's not as if they're things that are not moving in parallel. You are correct, there would take some time for the well piece to be implemented. However, most of the pipeline work towards the areas where we're looking to sequester given some of the acquisition work that Exxon has done.

傑夫，這是克里斯。我認為在這兩種情況下，它們並不是不平行移動的事物。您說得對，實現這個井段確實需要一些時間。然而，考慮到埃克森美孚已經完成的一些收購工作，大多數管道工程都朝著我們希望封存的地區進行。

We believe that we will be able to I think EOR is always an opportunity. However, our agreement is for Class VI permitted wells. So one of the reasons we went with Exxon is our confidence in the work that they've done not only at this frustration points that they have listed themselves but some of the partnerships that they're looking at as well. So we still feel confident that second half of the year, we will be sequestering CO2 from the Donaldsonville project.

我們相信我們能夠做到，我認為 EOR 始終是一個機會。然而，我們的協議針對的是 VI 級許可井。因此，我們選擇埃克森美孚的原因之一是我們對他們所做的工作充滿信心，不僅是在他們自己列出的這些令人沮喪的時刻，而且在他們正在考慮的一些合作夥伴關係中。因此，我們仍然有信心，今年下半年我們將從唐納森維爾計畫中封存二氧化碳。

Okay. And then as a second question, the value of CF Industries goes up and down. And I guess, more recently, it's come in. And it seems to be because people believe that the probability of there being a resolution in Ukraine is higher.

好的。第二個問題，CF Industries 的價值時漲時跌。我想，它是最近才出現的。似乎是因為人們相信烏克蘭問題解決的可能性更高。

When you think over a longer period of time, and you think about what the gas price in Europe might be or what nitrogen production in Russia might be. Is it the case that for North American companies sort of a more peaceful globe is negative for profits and profitability over a longer period of time? Or do you think that it really doesn't matter and the market has it grown?

當你考慮更長的時間時，你會想歐洲的天然氣價格可能是多少，或者俄羅斯的氮氣產量可能是多少。對北美公司來說，更和平的地球是否會對長期利潤和獲利能力產生不利影響？或者您認為這其實並不重要且市場已經成長了？

Yeah. Well, I would start with the fact that, as Bert mentioned, product is getting out. If you even look at what your Russian urea exports for this past year in they were up over 1 million tons from the prior year. So over 9 million tons were being exported.

是的。好吧，我首先要說的是，正如伯特所提到的，產品正在問世。如果你看去年俄羅斯的尿素出口量，你會發現出口量比前一年增加了 100 多萬噸。因此出口量超過900萬噸。

So similar to the Iran sanctions, product is moving globally. It's just moving to different locations and maybe at lower margins for those particular producers in that area. As far as the European gas movement, if you look at Russia's gas prewar and where they exist today, gas is still flowing into Europe via pipeline, about 4 Bcf per day.

與對伊朗的製裁非常相似，產品正在全球範圍內流動。它只是轉移到了不同​​的地點，並且可能會降低該地區特定生產商的利潤率。就歐洲天然氣輸送而言，如果觀察俄羅斯戰前的天然氣輸送以及目前的天然氣輸送情況，就會發現天然氣仍然透過管道輸送到歐洲，每天的輸送量約為 40 億立方英尺。

And it's mainly going to those particular countries that are willing to take Russian gas post the resolution or even pre the resolution that would happen. I think the availability of gas, the actual volume quantity has been sell by Europe, and it's been pretty remarkable how quickly they were able to do that through LNG imports from the US and from the Middle East as well.

這筆錢主要流向那些願意在決議通過後甚至在決議通過前使用俄羅斯天然氣的特定國家。我認為天然氣的供應量和實際數量已經由歐洲出售，而且他們能夠透過從美國和中東進口液化天然氣來如此迅速地實現這一目標，這相當了不起。

So while we do see maybe some contraction that may happen with TTF as if a cease-fire were to be announced, there's still that spread there. And then I think you're talking about the timing in which that would occur.

因此，儘管我們確實看到，就像宣布停火一樣，TTF 可能會出現一些收縮，但那裡仍然存在蔓延。然後我想你正在談論這件事發生的時間。

These plants, as Bert mentioned, you have 25% of the ammonia production down already. I think what we've seen is continually as these turnarounds come up where you have $50 million maintenance decisions to make.

正如伯特所提到的，這些工廠的氨產量已經下降了 25%。我認為，我們不斷看到的是，隨著這些轉變的出現，你需要做出價值 5,000 萬美元的維護決策。

Our expectation is that the plants that are down will not start back up and other plants will continue to come down. So even post the resolution, you're still going to have that short that we show in our earnings slides in Europe for ammonia that's going to have to be sourced from other places around the globe.

我們的預期是，停產的電廠將不會重新啟動，其他電廠將繼續停產。因此，即使決議出台，我們在歐洲獲利幻燈片中顯示的歐洲氨氣供應仍然短缺，因此必須從全球其他地方採購。

Jeff, this is Bert. And further comments to that is what Tony said earlier is the principal position of we want peace everywhere. We -- there is no need to have a war, and there's no need to be fighting over some of the things that are being fought over. That's the tragedy.

傑夫，這是伯特。對此的進一步評論是托尼先前所說的，我們希望世界和平的主要立場。我們──沒有必要發動戰爭，也沒有必要為一些正在爭奪的東西而爭鬥。這就是悲劇。

But moving forward, and the Russian tons are making their way out to the market. They're fully supplied, whether that's urea, UAN. The limit has been ammonia, which Chris referenced, even if there's pieces declared, ammonia is not going to be loaded out of use anytime soon. And maybe that's Tayman, maybe that's the Baltic ports of (inaudible) okay. So that can happen. Maybe the Ukrainian tons come back up, but they weren't that big of a supplier to the world.

但隨著時間的推移，俄羅斯的煤炭正逐漸進入市場。他們的供應充足，無論是尿素還是 UAN。限制一直是氨，克里斯提到，即使宣布有數量，氨也不會很快被淘汰。也許是泰曼，也許是波羅的海港口（聽不清楚），好的。所以這是有可能發生的。也許烏克蘭的產量會回升，但他們不是世界最大的供應國。

But you have to take a step back and remember, this is a global market of 200 million tons of products that's produced and demanded every year. And we've had gas limitations in Europe, gas limitations in Trinidad, Egypt, Iran, and we've had product export limitations of China.

但你必須退一步思考並記住，這是一個每年生產和需求 2 億噸產品的全球市場。歐洲有天然氣限制，特立尼達、埃及、伊朗有天然氣限制，中國也有產品出口限制。

So there are different places in the world where this is, again, back to the puts and takes to how we get to the markets that we get to. And it's not necessarily determinant by one company or a country being sanctioned or inability to move. And again, that's where I think the benefit of CF and our global look, global reach and team and how we're able to execute against these continued changes.

因此，世界上不同的地方都存在這種情況，這又回到了我們如何進入我們所在的市場的問題。這不一定是由一家公司或一個國家受到製裁或無法行動決定的。再次強調，我認為這就是 CF 的優勢所在，以及我們的全球視野、全球影響力和團隊，以及我們如何能夠應對這些持續的變化。

I would echo kind of both those things, and in particular, what Chris said about once the European plants have been offline and curtailed for a period of time, they're not coming back. I mean we had two manufacturing facilities, two ammonia plants in the UK.

我同意這兩種觀點，特別是克里斯所說的，一旦歐洲工廠停產並減產一段時間，它們就不會再恢復生產。我的意思是我們在英國有兩家製造工廠、兩家氨工廠。

And we talked long and hard about whether it was worth kind of the option value of being able to bring them back online if gas costs in the UK came down. And our conclusion was the cost of doing that was fairly high to maintain their ability to be brought back.

我們進行了長時間的深入討論，討論如果英國的天然氣成本下降，是否值得將這些設施重新投入使用。我們的結論是，為了維持他們的回歸能力，這樣做的成本相當高。

And even so the plan would still be operating on the third or fourth quartile as opposed to deploying capital in the US where we've got first quartile kind of cost structure, and that was one of the reasons we went kind of down the road of wage in and closing the UK ammonia plants.

即使如此，該計劃仍將在第三或第四四分位數上運行，而不是在美國部署資本，而在美國，我們擁有第一四分位數的成本結構，這也是我們走工資路線並關閉英國氨工廠的原因之一。

And so I think again, it's where your plants are located, and I'm really happy with where ours are. And on the volatility of our share price, I mean, yeah, it is unreasonably volatile for all kinds of reasons that I don't pretend to understand.

因此我再次思考，這取決於您的工廠所在的位置，而我對我們工廠所在的位置感到非常滿意。關於我們股價的波動，是的，我的意思是，由於各種我不假裝了解的原因，股價波動不合理。

But what that does is it gives us the opportunity to be very opportunistic on our share repurchases. And as Greg mentioned earlier, coming into this year, we had a little over $1 billion to spend. And at that time, it was 7%. The way the volatility is when we disproportionately buy on the dips, we can probably do well better than that.

但這確實為我們提供了機會，讓我們能夠靈活地進行股票回購。正如格雷格之前提到的，今年我們的支出略高於 10 億美元。當時，這一比例是 7%。當我們在低迷時大舉買進時，波動性可能會更大，但我們可能能夠取得比這更好的成績。

So it really does benefit our long-term shareholders that there is that volatility because it allows us to opportunistically take shares from people that don't see the fundamentals and the value the way that we do.

因此，這種波動確實對我們的長期股東有利，因為它使我們能夠趁機從那些不像我們一樣看待基本面和價值的人手中奪取股份。

Aron Ceccarelli, Berenberg.

貝倫貝格的阿隆·塞卡雷利 (Aron Ceccarelli)。

I have one on Blue Point and you clearly mentioned strong interest in the asset. And I remember the 1.4 million tons was the plant with JERA. And incremental to that was a valuation for another plant of at least 1 million tons with Mitsui.

我有一個關於 Blue Point 的訊息，你明確提到了對該資產的濃厚興趣。我記得 140 萬噸是與 JERA 合作的工廠。除此之外，還有另一座與三井物產共同建造的至少 100 萬噸的工廠的估值。

So maybe can you help me understand the announcement you made yesterday. Does it include potentially Mitsui as well and therefore, you are not going to go ahead with the second plant? How do I relate this considering the comments you made on really strong demand. Is it just a risk management approach where you want to start maybe a little bit smaller? How can I think about that?

所以也許你能幫助我理解你昨天所宣布的內容嗎？這是否也包括可能三井，因此您不打算繼續建造第二家工廠？考慮到您對強勁需求的評論，我該如何闡述這一點？這是否只是一種風險管理方法，您可能想從小處著手？我怎麼能想到這一點呢？

Yeah. So the -- we're thinking about or you're thinking about two different plants. The first plant that we began to do the analysis around that we had announced in conjunction that we were evaluating it with Mitsui was a conventional steam methane reformer SMR plant, very similar to our Donaldsonville number 6 plant. And that's a bit of a smaller plant compared to the ATR, the autothermal reformer that Chris talked about today, and Greg talked about today.

是的。所以——我們正在考慮或您正在考慮兩種不同的植物。我們開始進行分析的第一個工廠是我們與三井共同宣布的正在評估的工廠，它是一個傳統的蒸汽甲烷重整器 SMR 工廠，與我們的唐納森維爾 6 號工廠非常相似。與克里斯和格雷格今天談到的 ATR（自熱重整器）相比，這個工廠規模要小一些。

And so we were evaluating two different technologies. And in between those two technologies, we also brought -- Mitsui is still part of the evaluation process and part of the partnership, but JERA has also joined as well.

因此，我們正在評估兩種不同的技術。在這兩種技術之間，我們也帶來了——三井仍然參與評估過程和合作，但 JERA 也加入了。

And so what we've done is we've gone from at the time what was one partner looking at an SMR of a little over 1 million tons or 1.2 million to two partners looking at an autothermal reformer of 1.4 million. So the SMR, the kind of the smaller, more conventional plant is not being actively considered at this time. It is really the autothermal that we're focused on, and that's with both Jira and Mitsui's potential partners.

因此，我們所做的是，從當時一個合作夥伴考慮 100 多萬噸或 120 萬噸的 SMR，到現在兩個合作夥伴都考慮 140 萬噸的自熱重整器。因此，SMR 這種規模較小、更傳統的核電廠目前還沒有被積極考慮。我們真正關注的是自熱能，這也是 Jira 和三井的潛在合作夥伴共同關注的。

Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions for today. I would like to turn the call back to Martin Jarosick for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天我們的提問時間就到此為止。我想請馬丁·雅羅西克作最後發言。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us, and we look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences.

感謝大家的加入我們，我們期待在即將召開的會議上見到你們。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。