CF工業控股 (CF) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the CF Industries Q1 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 CF Industries 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Martin Jarosick, Vice President, Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給財務和投資者關係副總裁 Martin Jarosick 先生。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Tony Will, President and CEO; Chris Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Bert Frost, Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain; and Greg Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. . CF Industries reported its results for the first quarter of 2025 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook and then host a question-and-answer session.

早安，感謝您參加 CF Industries 收益電話會議。今天和我一起的還有總裁兼執行長 Tony Will；執行副總裁兼營運長 Chris Bohn；銷售、市場開發和供應鏈執行副總裁 Bert Frost；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Greg Cameron。。 CF Industries 昨天下午公佈了 2025 年第一季的業績。在這次電話會議上，我們將回顧結果，討論我們的展望，然後主持問答環節。

Statements made on this call and in the presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you'll find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website.

本次電話會議和演示中所作的非歷史事實的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並非對未來表現的保證，並且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。因此，實際結果可能與任何陳述中表達或暗示的內容有重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件，這些文件可在我們的網站上查閱。此外，您還可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿和簡報中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對帳。

Now let me introduce Tony Will.

現在讓我來介紹一下托尼威爾。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the first quarter of 2025, in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $644 million. These results reflect outstanding performance by the CF Industries team against the backdrop of very constructive global nitrogen industry conditions. We are operating safely and at a high level across all aspects of our business. Over the longer term, we have positioned the company for attractive growth through our Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui.

謝謝，馬丁，大家早安。昨天下午，我們公佈了 2025 年第一季的業績，其中調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.44 億美元。這些結果反映了 CF Industries 團隊在全球氮氣產業中情勢十分樂觀的背景下的出色表現。我們業務的各個方面都安全且高水準地運作。從長遠來看，我們透過與 JERA 和三井的 Blue Point 合資企業，為公司實現了有吸引力的成長。

This industry-defining project will not only supply ammonia that the world desperately will need, but it will also add -- develop -- it will also develop additional demand for low-carbon ammonia into brand-new applications.

這個行業定義項目不僅將提供世界迫切需要的氨，而且還將增加——開發——它還將在全新應用領域開發對低碳氨的額外需求。

We also remain committed to returning capital to long-term shareholders. Since the beginning of 2022, we have returned $5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Given the confidence we have in our free cash generation going forward and the disciplined nature of our investment in Blue Point, the Board has authorized an additional $2 billion share repurchase program. This new program will begin immediately after we complete our existing authorization and will run through the end of 2029. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris to provide more details on our operating results and the steps of key strategic initiatives. Chris?

我們也將繼續致力於向長期股東返還資本。自2022年初以來，我們已透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了50億美元。鑑於我們對未來自由現金流產生的信心以及我們對青鋒投資的嚴謹性，董事會已批准額外 20 億美元的股票回購計畫。這項新計劃將在我們完成現有授權後立即啟動，並將持續到 2029 年底。接下來，我將把時間交給克里斯，讓他提供有關我們的營運績效和關鍵策略舉措步驟的更多細節。克里斯？

Thanks, Tony. Our production network continued to operate very well in the first quarter. For the second quarter in a row, we produced over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia, which reflects 100% utilization rate. We continue to project approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia production in 2025.

謝謝，托尼。我們的生產網絡在第一季繼續運作良好。我們連續第二季生產了超過 260 萬噸的合成氨，利用率達到 100%。我們繼續預測 2025 年氨的總產量將達到約 1,000 萬噸。

Turning to our strategic initiatives. We are nearing completion of our Land Adlsonville complex carbon capture and sequestration project. Commissioning activities for the carbon dioxide dehydration and compression unit are in advanced stages, and we expect start-up of sequestration in the second half of 2025. This will also initiate the 45Q tax credit generation on up to 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide on an annual basis.

談到我們的策略舉措。我們的 Land Adlsonville 綜合碳捕獲和封存項目即將完工。二氧化碳脫水和壓縮機組的調試活動已進入後期階段，我們預計將於 2025 年下半年啟動封存工作。這也將啟動每年高達 200 萬公噸二氧化碳的 45Q 稅收抵免。

Longer term, we believe our Blue Point joint venture presents a compelling growth opportunity for the company given the tighter global nitrogen supply demand bounce we project for the end of the decade. Additionally, our positive FID announcement has advanced existing conversations and spurred interest in our portion of Blue Point ammonia production. We are pleased that the joint venture includes world-class partners in JERA and Mitsui with whom we will share cost and offtake. The joint venture's priorities for the rest of 2025 are to build out our project team, order long-lead equipment items and further prepare the site for construction.

從長遠來看，我們相信，鑑於我們預測到本世紀末全球氮氣供應需求將反彈，我們的 Blue Point 合資企業將為公司帶來極具吸引力的成長機會。此外，我們積極的 FID 公告推進了現有的對話，並激發了人們對我們在 Blue Point 氨生產中所佔份額的興趣。我們很高興合資企業包括 JERA 和三井等世界級合作夥伴，我們將與他們分擔成本和承購。合資公司在 2025 年剩餘時間內的首要任務是組建專案團隊、訂購長週期設備並進一步準備施工現場。

With that, let me turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market.

說到這裡，讓我把話題交給伯特來討論全球氮氣市場。

Thanks, Chris. The CF Industries team navigated a dynamic environment through the first part of 2025 driven by a tight nitrogen supply-demand balance. In particular, we have seen strong global demand as the very low corn stocks-to-use ratio points to a need to replenish global corn stocks. In North America, farmer economics favor quorum, the USDA reported corn planting expectations of 95 million acres in the United States this year. However, based on the nitrogen demand we are seeing, we believe that final planted corn acres for 2025 will likely be higher.

謝謝，克里斯。CF Industries 團隊在 2025 年上半年應對了氮氣供需緊張的動態環境。特別是，我們看到全球需求強勁，因為玉米庫存與使用比率非常低，這表明需要補充全球玉米庫存。在北美，農民經濟狀況有利於法定人數，美國農業部報告稱，今年美國玉米種植面積預計為 9,500 萬英畝。然而，根據我們看到的氮需求，我們認為 2025 年最終種植的玉米麵積可能會更高。

At the same time, channel inventories of nitrogen fertilizer are low due to high demand and industry production outages as well as lower than typical net imports of UAN and urea. This has supported prices well into the second quarter. Given the strong demand and tight availability across our network, we expect to end the spring season low with low inventory across all our products, positioning us well to fill -- for our fill programs and the rest of 2025. We expect the global nitrogen industry conditions to remain constructive into the second half of the year. Globally, we believe nitrogen inventory is average to lower throughout the key consuming regions supporting strong demand.

同時，由於需求高和產業生產中斷，氮肥渠道庫存較低，且尿素氮和尿素淨進口量低於典型。這對第二季的價格起到了支撐作用。鑑於我們整個網路的強勁需求和緊張供應，我們預計春季結束時所有產品的庫存都將處於低位，這為我們填補計劃和 2025 年剩餘時間的空缺做好了準備。我們預計今年下半年全球氮氣產業狀況將保持良好。從全球來看，我們認為主要消費地區的氮庫存處於平均水平或較低水平，以支持強勁的需求。

This includes Brazil, the world's largest importer of urea as well as India, which is not secured target volumes for its last few urea tenders. However, the expected start-up of new ammonia capacity in North America this year may bring more volatility in global ammonia prices as trade flows adjust. Longer term, we expect the global nitrogen supply band balance to tighten through the end of the decade. Capital availability, long-term feedstock costs and geopolitical events continue to limit the number of new projects. As a result, projected new capacity growth is not keeping pace with demand growth for traditional fertilizer and industrial applications.

其中包括全球最大的尿素進口國巴西，以及在最近幾次尿素招標中未能確保目標數量的印度。然而，隨著貿易流向的調整，預計今年北美新氨產能的投產可能會為全球氨價格帶來更大波動。從長遠來看，我們預計到本世紀末全球氮供應平衡將會收緊。資本可用性、長期原料成本和地緣政治事件繼續限制新項目的數量。因此，預計的新產能成長跟不上傳統肥料和工業應用的需求成長。

We believe demand for low carbon ammonia for new applications such as power generation, will only further tighten the global supply-demand balance. With that, Greg will cover our financial performance.

我們認為，發電等新應用對低碳氨的需求只會進一步收緊全球供需平衡。接下來，格雷格將介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Bert. For the first quarter of the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $312 million or $1.85 per diluted share. Net earnings increased approximately 60% compared to the first quarter of 2024, while earnings per share were approximately 80% higher, reflecting our significantly lower share count. EBITDA was $617 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $644 million. On a trailing 12-month basis, net cash from operations was $2.4 billion, and free cash flow was approximately $1.6 billion.

謝謝，伯特。該公司第一季報告的普通股股東淨利潤約為 3.12 億美元，即每股 1.85 美元。與 2024 年第一季相比，淨收益成長了約 60%，而每股盈餘成長了約 80%，反映出我們的股票數量顯著減少。EBITDA 為 6.17 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 6.44 億美元。過去 12 個月，經營活動產生的淨現金為 24 億美元，自由現金流約 16 億美元。

We continue to be efficient converters of EBITDA to free cash flow. Our free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate for this time period was 63%. We returned $530 million to shareholders in the first quarter of 2025. This included $434 million to repurchase 5.4 million shares. Over the last 12 months, we've returned approximately $2 billion, repurchasing nearly 20 million shares for approximately $1.6 billion and returning another $353 million in dividend payments.

我們繼續有效率地將 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流。此期間我們的自由現金流量與調整後 EBITDA 的轉換率為 63%。我們在 2025 年第一季向股東返還了 5.3 億美元。其中包括斥資 4.34 億美元回購 540 萬股股票。在過去的 12 個月中，我們返還了大約 20 億美元，以大約 16 億美元的價格回購了近 2,000 萬股股票，並返還了 3.53 億美元的股息。

Entering the second quarter, we had approximately $630 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization. We anticipate completing the remainder of this program before its expiration in December. Upon completion, we will begin an additional $2 billion fair repurchase program, which expires at the end of 2029. For the full year, we expect CF Industries capital-funded expenditures will be approximately $650 million. This includes approximately $500 million related to activities within our existing network and approximately $150 million related to our portion of the Blue Point activities. As we will be consolidating the Blue Point joint venture into our financial statements, our reported capital expenditures will also include a portion of the Blue Point activities funded by the joint venture partners going forward.

進入第二季度，我們目前的股票回購授權還剩餘約 6.3 億美元。我們預計將在 12 月該計劃到期之前完成剩餘部分。完成後，我們將啟動另外 20 億美元的公平回購計劃，將於 2029 年底到期。我們預計 CF Industries 全年資本支出約 6.5 億美元。其中包括與我們現有網路內的活動相關的約 5 億美元和與我們在 Blue Point 活動部分相關的約 1.5 億美元。由於我們將把青鋒合資合併到我們的財務報表中，我們報告的資本支出也將包括合資夥伴未來資助的一部分青鋒活動。

With that, Tony will provide some closing remarks before we open up the call to Q&A.

在我們開始問答環節之前，托尼將發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Greg. Before we move on to your questions, I want to thank everyone at CF Industries for their contributions to an outstanding first quarter of 2025. I also want to note that we are holding an Investor Day June 24 in New York. Martin and Darrell be contacting you with specific details and invitations. We look forward to talking in more detail about our strategy, initiatives and long-term outlook at that time.

謝謝，格雷格。在回答您的問題之前，我想感謝 CF Industries 的所有人為 2025 年第一季的出色表現所做的貢獻。我還想指出，我們將於 6 月 24 日在紐約舉辦投資者日。Martin 和 Darrell 將與您聯繫並提供具體細節和邀請。我們期待屆時將更詳細地討論我們的策略、舉措和長期前景。

CF Industries is exceptionally well positioned for the years ahead. In the near term, industry dynamics remain favorable for our low-cost North American production network. Longer term, we expect the global nitrogen supply demand balance tightened while our investments in low carbon ammonia production provide a robust growth platform with attractive returns. Taken together, we expect to continue to drive strong cash generation and create substantial value for long-term shareholders.

CF Industries 已為未來幾年做好了充分準備。短期內，產業動態仍有利於我們的低成本北美生產網絡。從長遠來看，我們預計全球氮供需平衡將收緊，而我們在低碳氨生產方面的投資將提供強勁的成長平台和誘人的回報。總的來說，我們預計將繼續推動強勁的現金產生並為長期股東創造巨大價值。

With that, operator, we will now open the call to your questions.

接線員，現在我們將開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Stephan Byrne, Bank of America Securities.

（操作員指示）美國銀行證券的斯蒂芬·伯恩 (Stephan Byrne)。

You're only a couple of months away from having some blue ammonia to sell out of Beeville, do you have any offtake lined up for this as of yet?

再過幾個月你們就會有一些藍色氨水從比維爾出口出去，目前你們有沒有什麼承保安排？

So we've been working on that, Steve, for quite a while, having a lot of conversations. And yes, we do have agreements in place for when that product is available. They're structured for growth. And so as we bring on the tons and some of the -- these are tied to exports to Europe and some other locations as well as some industrial contracts. We're not fully booked yet and don't anticipate that.

因此，史蒂夫，我們為此已經努力了很長一段時間，進行了許多對話。是的，我們確實已經就該產品的上市時間達成了協議。它們的結構是為了成長而建構的。因此，當我們帶來這些噸位時，其中一些與對歐洲和其他一些地區的出口以及一些工業合約有關。我們的預訂尚未滿，並且預計不會發生這種情況。

We're anticipating demand to grow as the understanding and it becomes available. We are the first and only producer with these tons to the market. And I think when you look around the world with what people are trying to do with their own carbon structures as well as C-band, a lot of opportunity in front of us.

我們預計，隨著理解的加深和可用性的提高，需求將會成長。我們是第一家也是唯一一家向市場推出如此多產量的生產商。我認為，當你環顧世界各地，看看人們如何利用自己的碳結構以及 C 波段，你會發現我們面前有很多機會。

And I'm sure you're aware, also in Ascension Parish with Devil and your Blue Point project is the project that Airproxis trying to get on stream and they would like to either bring on a partner or just sell off the ammonia loop. And I'm just curious, is this a potential project that you might be interested in, you would be the only one that might be able to put that product into the NuStar pipeline if that opportunity for low carbon corn really develops down the road. Is that a truth and you also highlighted your view of tightening supply and demand in nitrogen through the end of the decade. So is this a potential project you might also get involved in?

我相信您也知道，在 Ascension Parish，Devil 和您的 Blue Point 項目是 Airproxis 試圖投入生產的項目，他們希望要么引入合作夥伴，要么乾脆出售氨循環。我只是好奇，這是您可能感興趣的潛在項目嗎？如果低碳玉米的機會真的在未來發展，您將是唯一能夠將該產品放入 NuStar 管道的人。這是事實嗎？您也強調了對本世紀末氮氣供應和需求將會收緊的看法。那麼，這是您可能參與的潛在項目嗎？

Yes, Steve, this is Tony. I think this project, at least from an ammonia producers perspective, suffers from some of the challenges that we saw with the OCI project and why we opted not to participate in that discussion, which is the hydrogen producer in this case, Air Products is looking to earn a nice return risk-free off of the production of hydrogen and enter into take-or-pay agreements with the ammonia loop operator at something that is a very high operating cost, basically, it puts your gas cost in the third or fourth quartile. So while you might get a little bit of a break on if you're on the hook to buy gas at $10 an MMBtu, come hacker high water, you're going to be paying on a gas cost basis $300 of energy content for a ton of ammonia, whereas our project doesn't suffer from that. So that is not a project that we would be interested in, in any way because we don't want to deploy that level of capital against noncompetitive assets.

是的，史蒂夫，這是東尼。我認為這個項目，至少從氨生產商的角度來看，面臨著我們在 OCI 項目中看到的一些挑戰，這也是我們選擇不參與該討論的原因，在這種情況下，氫氣生產商 Air Products 希望從氫氣生產中獲得良好的無風險回報，並與氨迴路運營商達成照付不議協議，這是一個非常高的運營成本，基本上，它將您第四位的營運成本，基本上置於第三位或第三位運營成本，基本上置於第三位或天然氣的成本，基本上置於第三位或第三位的營運成本，成本，它基本上置於第三因此，儘管如果您以每百萬英熱單位 10 美元的價格購買天然氣，您可能會獲得一點喘息的機會，但當價格達到最高時，您將以天然氣成本為每噸氨支付 300 美元的能源費用，而我們的項目不會受到這種影響。所以，無論如何，這不是我們感興趣的項目，因為我們不想將那麼多的資本投入到沒有競爭力的資產上。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

Nice quarter. Just a question on Blue Point. Congrats on the close of JV. But just on the partnership stakes, JERA has an option to reduce your stakes before the end of the year. If you can just give us some clarity on some of the conditions there. And in terms of like what the potential in terms of changes in offtake for the other partners would be, if you took I guess, the remaining stake, taking you up to 60%, how would that impact sort of marketing the tons going forward, easy?

不錯的季度。這只是關於 Blue Point 的一個問題。祝賀合資公司成立。但僅在合作股份方面，JERA 可以選擇在年底前減少股份。如果您能向我們解釋那裡的一些情況的話。至於其他合作夥伴的承購變化潛力，如果您持有剩餘股份，佔比達到 60%，這會對未來的行銷產生什麼影響？

Yes. So we fully expect that JERA is going to want to maintain their ownership level at 35%. On the other hand, if they opt to return kind of 15% of the economics back to us, we're very comfortable with that. It still only puts us at 55% ownership of the overall project. And we believe that the economics around this project are very attractive.

是的。因此，我們完全預期 JERA 將希望將其所有權水準維持在 35%。另一方面，如果他們選擇將 15% 的經濟收益回饋給我們，我們對此感到非常滿意。這仍然使我們只擁有整個專案的 55% 所有權。我們相信這個項目的經濟效益非常有吸引力。

And so having incrementally a little more of the equity and the offtake, offtake is proportionate to equity ownership, is something that we are 100% comfortable with. But we don't believe that's going to be the ultimate outcome of all of this. And the incremental tonnage that you're talking about on that 15% is, call it, roughly 200,000 tons and it has plenty of options in terms of where to take those ones, both at home and abroad. So again, we have no issues at all with that.

因此，逐步增加股權和承購量，承購量與股權所有權成比例，這是我們 100% 滿意的。但我們不相信這會是這一切的最終結果。您所說的 15% 增量噸位大約是 20 萬噸，至於將這些增量噸位輸送到哪裡，無論是在國內還是在國外，它都有很多選擇。所以，我們對此沒有任何問題。

Yes. Just building on that, Richard, as we've mentioned in our prepared remarks, we're seeing more interest since the announcement of this particular project with individuals looking for low carbon production assets or production offtake. So I don't think it would be that big of a stretch for us to find a home to that. But I agree with Tony that I would find that to be somewhat of an unlikely case given JERA's position.

是的。理查德，正如我們在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，自從宣布這個特定項目以來，我們看到越來越多的個人對低碳生產資產或生產承購感興趣。因此我認為，要找到一個安身之所對我們來說並不是太難的事。但我同意托尼的觀點，考慮到 JERA 的地位，我認為這種情況不太可能發生。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Tony, Bert team, maybe talk about the market. It has obviously been quite a hot spring market in the US for a really (inaudible) Maybe talk what you've seen, it seems like now we're starting to cool off, what your views are going into the spring and summer? Do you have a view on where fall-summer market be and you be able to capture in Q2 here, a lot of the surge or what does your book like?

東尼，伯特團隊，也許可以談談市場。顯然，美國的春季市場非常火爆（聽不清楚）也許談談您所看到的，似乎現在開始降溫，您對春季和夏季有何看法？您對秋夏市場有何看法？您是否能夠在第二季抓住大量成長機會？或是您的書是什麼樣的？

Yes, we're pleased with our order book. Normally, through this type of environment in our commodity business, you're always building your order book for the approximate one, two, and three months. And so as you see the results in Q1, we exceeded expectations.

是的，我們對我們的訂單很滿意。通常情況下，透過我們商品業務中的這種環境，您總是會建立大約一、二和三個月的訂單。正如您所看到的第一季的結果，我們超出了預期。

And for Q2, we had a book coming in, but also open positions, which we're executing against today and you're seeing those in the publications. It has been a very positive market. A lot of that is related to some of the issues we've talked about, which -- the inventory is coming in to North America were lower. And I think because of the tariffs, you've seen some diversions of vessels, which limited probably prompt availability for the May -- or April, May, June time frame.

對於第二季度，我們有一本書即將出版，但也有空缺職位，我們今天正在執行這些職位，您可以在出版物中看到這些職位。這是一個非常積極的市場。其中許多與我們討論過的一些問題有關，即進入北美的庫存較低。我認為，由於關稅的原因，一些船隻被迫改道，這可能會限制 5 月或 4 月、5 月和 6 月期間的船舶供應。

And our plans have operated very well. And our network was prepared. Our -- I got to give a shout out our logistics team, Mike Muller and the folks in the supply group of putting the product in the terminals at the right time understanding where -- because of weather where demand would be. And so we capitalized on that.

我們的計劃實施得非常順利。我們的網路已經做好準備。我們的——我要向我們的物流團隊、邁克·穆勒和供應團隊的人們大聲呼喊，他們在正確的時間將產品放入終端，了解——由於天氣原因，需求會在哪裡。因此我們利用了這一點。

And so some of the prices you're seeing in the market, we're executing against that, feel very good about Q2. And that will probably then extend into Q3. And I would say the fill programs are going to be later than anticipation just because of low inventories in North America outside of CF as well as CF. And we'll execute accordingly, but believe that we have a positive market in front of us.

因此，根據您在市場上看到的一些價格，我們正在執行這些價格，對第二季感覺非常好。這種情況可能會延續到第三季。我想說的是，由於 CF 和 CF 以外的北美庫存較低，填充計劃將比預期晚。我們將採取相應措施，但相信我們面前有一個積極的市場。

And then on a different tact here, Tony, when you did do the FID about a month ago on Blue Point, it was obviously remains a very interesting macro and tariff environment. Just thinking about historical context, you see other golf producers, the capital inflation we saw on products a decade ago, early last decade, the problems with labor rates and getting good labor and what gets paid for it. How do you mitigate what could be very strong capital inflation or not? Like what can you do with your partners to make this so it's not going to really affect the level of buyback you can do in the next four years?

然後從不同的角度來說，東尼，當你大約一個月前對藍點進行最終投資決定時，顯然它仍然是一個非常有趣的宏觀和關稅環境。僅考慮歷史背景，您就會看到其他高爾夫生產商，我們在十年前、上個十年初期看到的產品資本膨脹，以及勞動力率和獲得優質勞動力以及為此獲得報酬的問題。您如何緩解可能出現的非常強勁的資本通膨？例如，您可以與合作夥伴做些什麼來做到這一點，以便它不會真正影響您在未來四年內可以進行的回購水平？

Yes, Joel. So we're taking a fundamentally different approach to production of this plant than what we employed historically. And by that, I mean, the last projects we did, and in fact, the ones we did prior to that were all what you'd call stick build. So individual beams going up and creating attachment points for the vessels and continuing to build it kind of piece by piece by piece.

是的，喬爾。因此，我們對該工廠的生產採取了與以往根本不同的方法。我的意思是，我們最後做的項目，事實上，我們之前做的項目都是所謂的木造建築。因此，各個橫樑向上延伸，為船隻創建連接點，然後繼續一點一點地建造。

And when you're doing that, the vast majority of consumed content is happening here on site. And you are subject because of the way that those are contracted on a reimbursable basis. to the possibility of inflationary pressures and potential time delays. The approach that we're taking on this project is really one of modular construction. So these very large integrated modules are being constructed overseas and will be shipped here and basically just positioned in place secured to the mounting locations and then connected together.

當你這樣做的時候，絕大多數的消費內容都是在網站上發生。由於這些合約是按照可償還的方式簽訂的，因此您也必須遵守規定。通膨壓力和潛在時間延遲的可能性。我們在這個專案上採取的方法實際上是模組化構造。因此，這些非常大的整合模組正在海外建造，然後運送到這裡，基本上只是定位到位，固定在安裝位置，然後連接在一起。

So the amount of on-site construction content here in the US has dramatically reduced. And we are choosing with our partners and our EPC or our, I guess, EPC provider to find locations where we can construct it, which are much less likely to be affected by any kind of tariff regime, so it be in place in the long term. And those modules are all being constructed on a fixed price basis. It's so much more of the content is what you'd call LSTK. And therefore, lump sum turnkey, therefore, you are not subject to the kind of inflationary pressures or the potential overrun of labor content that we were the last time we were doing this.

因此，美國現場施工量已大幅減少。我們正在與我們的合作夥伴和 EPC 或我們的 EPC 提供者一起選擇可以建造它的地點，這些地點受任何關稅制度的影響都較小，因此它可以長期實施。這些模組都是按照固定價格建造的。它包含的內容遠遠多於你所說的 LSTK。因此，透過一次性交鑰匙工程，您不會像我們上次這樣做時那樣面臨通貨膨脹壓力或潛在的勞動力超支。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Great. So Tony, there has been a lot of debate around the intermediate to long-term cost curve, just given gas supply issues elsewhere in the world, geopolitics, so on and so forth. Can you just give us an update on how you're thinking about that as it relates to the nitrogen cost curve. You're -- and within that basically how you're thinking about free cash flow conversion and your ability not only to buy back shares, but also obviously fully facilitate the CapEx updates which you gave us today, which were roughly in line with our expectations.

偉大的。東尼，考慮到世界其他地方的天然氣供應問題、地緣政治等等，圍繞中期到長期成本曲線存在著許多爭論。您能否向我們介紹一下您對此問題與氮氣成本曲線關係的看法？您 - 基本上，您如何考慮自由現金流轉換以及您不僅回購股票的能力，而且顯然還能充分促進您今天向我們提供的資本支出更新，這大致符合我們的預期。

Yes, you bet. So I think it's regardless of which service or whose analysis you're looking at it's pretty undeniable that the US is the one of the lowest cost regional world from a gas production perspective. And really with rule of law and the access to cavern space for CCS and supportive regulation, really, I think, the best place in the world to build these kind of assets.

是的，沒錯。因此，我認為，無論你看哪種服務或誰的分析，從天然氣生產角度來看，美國是世界上成本最低的地區之一，這一點是不可否認的。而且，我認為，有了法治、可以使用 CCS 洞穴空間以及支持性監管，這裡確實是世界上建造此類資產的最佳地點。

We expect that to be true, not only today, but going forward into the future. And despite the fact that there are some LNG capacity coming online in the US, the level of demand for natural gas continues to go up at a rate that I think is equal to or above the level of liquefaction capacity that is coming online. That's particularly true when you consider the number of data centers going into support AI and other applications and the power consumption that those things draw. So as we look at it, we do not see substantial long-term compression between gas cost in Europe and parts of Asia and the US. We think that's going to be much more sticky than what -- some people are forecasting doom and gloom in that regard.

我們期望這不僅在今天是事實，而且在未來也是事實。儘管美國已經有一些液化天然氣產能上線，但我認為天然氣需求水準仍在持續成長，其成長速度等於或高於正在上線的液化天然氣產能水準。當你考慮到支援人工智慧和其他應用程式的資料中心數量以及這些應用程式所消耗的電力時，這一點尤其正確。因此，從我們的角度來看，歐洲和亞洲部分地區以及美國的天然氣成本之間不會出現長期顯著的壓縮。我們認為這會比一些人預測的更加棘手——在這方面，有些人預測的情況會很糟糕。

But as you look through what energy consumption continues to be in demand for natural gas is we couldn't be happier locating this production asset in the US.

但是，當您了解能源消耗對天然氣的持續需求時，我們非常高興能在美國找到這項生產資產。

Got it. And when we take a step back and we think about the ultimate return for Blue Point, presumably, we're looking at a site fee tax credits as well as the return on your proportion of what's produced. Can you kind of walk us through how we should be thinking about not only those baselines and what's locked in versus the variability of the tons? And then also presumably, you'll be selling some of those tons to yourself in the UK and getting a benefit there.

知道了。當我們退一步思考藍點的最終回報時，我們大概會考慮場地費稅收抵免以及您所佔產量比例的回報。您能否向我們介紹一下，我們應該如何思考，不僅要考慮那些基線，還要考慮鎖定的噸位變化？然後大概你也會把其中一些賣給英國自己，並從中獲益。

So can you help us just conceptualize like the structure of how we should be forecasting that?

那麼，您能幫助我們概念化我們應該如何預測這一情況的結構嗎？

Yes. So at a 40% ownership, we're going to have about -- just call it roughly 650,000 tons. It will likely be a bit more than that. Given that historically, we our operating assets at above their nameplate capacity and certainly did with Devill #6 and Port Neal #2. And so about half of that is tentatively earmarked to go into the UK to be able to produce extremely low carbon allonium nitrate for the UK and European marketplace, which should have a significant advantage given the CBAM, regime that's getting put in place. The rest of it, we have a lot of options for it, as Bert talked about, we've been working on this for a while, just on the devil CCS project, but are beginning to now talk about extremely low carbon intensity product coming out of Blue. And so we're talking about a relatively small amount of tons given the scope of our ongoing operation.

是的。因此，如果擁有 40% 的所有權，我們將擁有約 65 萬噸。可能還會更多。從歷史上看，我們的營運資產的產能都超過了其額定容量，Devill #6 和 Port Neal #2 的情況就是如此。因此，其中約有一半暫時指定運往英國，以便為英國和歐洲市場生產極低碳的硝酸銨，考慮到正在實施的 CBAM 制度，這應該具有顯著的優勢。對於其餘部分，我們有很多選擇，正如伯特所說的那樣，我們已經研究這個問題有一段時間了，只是在魔鬼 CCS 項目上，但現在開始談論 Blue 推出的極低碳強度產品。因此，考慮到我們正在進行的營運範圍，我們談論的噸數相對較少。

And again, Bert's got more I would say, demand, and we do have tons available, given half of that is going to go to the UK. The rest of the tons are being offtake is for our partners who are going to be using that product learn in Asia. And so that's going to disappear. And they're basically because they're into the project at -- on the equity side are going to be paying kind of full cost on those the same as we are, and we'll receive production economics just like we will as well.

再說一次，我想說，伯特的需求更多，而且我們確實有大量可用資源，因為其中一半將運往英國。其餘噸位將出售給將在亞洲使用該產品的合作夥伴。所以它將會消失。他們基本上是因為他們參與了這個計畫——在股權方面，他們將像我們一樣支付全部成本，我們也將獲得生產經濟效益。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

瑞銀的盧卡斯·博蒙特。

I just wanted to ask about tariffs. I just wanted to get your view on how you see that kind of impacting the various sort of nitrogen derivative markets in the US, I guess, over the near term to start with. And then if we look a bit further out 12 to 18 months to give trade flows, the chance to adjust. I mean would you expect to sort of see pricing uplift in the range of sort of where the marginal importer is, so at least kind of 10%? And do you think that could be reduced over time? Or how do you kind of see those factors playing out?

我只是想問一下關稅問題。我只是想了解您如何看待這種現像在短期內對美國各種氮衍生品市場的影響。然後，如果我們將目光放遠一點，12 到 18 個月，貿易流量就有機會進行調整。我的意思是，您是否預計會看到邊際進口商的價格上漲幅度至少達到 10% 左右？您認為隨著時間的推移，這種情況會減少嗎？或您如何看待這些因素的影響？

Yes. In a weird way, and then I'm going to let Bert kind of get into some more specifics. But in a weird way, even though there tends to be tariffs and/or sanctions on a lot of Russian product, Russian fertilizer comes unabated into the US with no tariff regime at all. So in a lot of ways, we are creating trade policy that is advantaged in the Russians to access this marketplace at potentially the expense of much more closely allied country. And so there is a perversion in terms of what's going on with trade policy in that particular event. But I'll let Bert go into some of the more details here.

是的。以一種奇怪的方式，然後我會讓伯特更詳細地講解。但奇怪的是，儘管許多俄羅斯產品都面臨關稅和/或製裁，但俄羅斯化肥卻毫無阻礙地進入美國，而且完全沒有關稅制度。因此，在許多方面，我們正在製定有利於俄羅斯進入這個市場的貿易政策，而這可能會損害更緊密的盟友國家的利益。因此，就該特定事件而言，貿易政策的走向存在偏差。但我會讓伯特在這裡詳細介紹一些細節。

When you look at the tariff structures that are in place for today for certain countries, and Tony is 100% correct, the frustration. Russia is the largest importer of UAN and urea to the United States and almost 1.5 million tons of urea at 0 tariff it's not tariff. So of the total, we have almost 2 million tons of common tariff free. So if you structure where we import 4 million to 5 million tons a year, the rest of it comes from basically the Middle East and North Africa, Qatar at 10%, Algeria at 30%, Nigeria at 14%, Oman, UAE, Egypt, all at 10%. So you are going to have an impact, and you're exactly right.

當你看到某些國家目前實行的關稅結構時，你會感到沮喪，托尼的說法是 100% 正確的。俄羅斯是美國最大的尿素銨和尿素進口國，以零關稅進口了近150萬噸尿素，不是關稅。因此，在總量中，我們有近 200 萬噸的普通免關稅產品。因此，如果我們每年進口 400 萬至 500 萬噸，其餘部分基本上來自中東和北非，卡達佔 10%，阿爾及利亞佔 30%，尼日利亞佔 14%，阿曼、阿聯酋、埃及各佔 10%。所以你會產生影響，你說得完全正確。

There's going to be a trade flow movement of probably tons going different directions in the meantime. But the US has been one of the lowest-priced markets consistently in the world. And I think this will have an impact and we'll probably move closer to a Brazil parity or even maybe slightly above that. And it will be -- as this unfolds, I think it will impact behavior in terms of when and how people are purchasing their imported tons.

同時，可能會有大量的貿易流動朝著不同的方向進行。但美國一直是世界上價格最低的市場之一。我認為這會產生影響，我們可能會更接近巴西的水平，甚至可能略高於巴西的水平。隨著這一情況的展開，我認為這將影響人們購買進口貨物的時間和方式。

We feel very confident the North American market is the best market in the world, and we've got great customers, and we're working with them to make sure that they're adequately supplied today as well as in the forward market, and we may be positioning more of our tons domestically, which is a perfect solution.

我們非常有信心北美市場是世界上最好的市場，我們擁有優秀的客戶，我們正在與他們合作，以確保他們今天以及在遠期市場上獲得充足的供應，我們可能會在國內定位更多的噸位，這是一個完美的解決方案。

And then -- sorry. And then I just had a follow-up on Buy points. So I just wanted to kind of -- you called out a couple of other components there to the agreement I just sort of wanted to check. So you said it was like some bad service revenue components on the management of the facility. And then just with regard to sort of the credit side, I was assuming that would be split evenly based on the ownership percentage in the offtake as well. Is that right?

然後——抱歉。然後我只是對購買積分進行了跟進。所以我只是想——你提到了協議中的其他幾個組成部分，我只是想檢查一下。所以你說這就像是設施管理上一些不良服務收入的組成部分。然後就信貸方面而言，我假設它也將根據承購中的所有權百分比進行平均分配。是嗎？

Yes. So from the common facility standpoint, CF will be funding that. And that said, $550 million, that will be over the five-year period in which we'll receive a fee and payment that will more than cover the cost of capital and then some on that from our partners as we go forward. Related to the 45Q tax credit incentive associated with the carbon sequester there that will be spread throughout the JV and essentially go back on equity percentage terms.

是的。因此，從通用設施的角度來看，CF 將為此提供資金。也就是說，5.5 億美元將在五年內支付，在此期間，我們將收到一筆費用和付款，這筆費用和付款不僅足以支付資本成本，而且還會從我們的合作夥伴那裡獲得一些。與碳封存相關的 45Q 稅收抵免激勵措施將在整個合資企業中推廣，並基本上以股權百分比回饋。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Andrew Wong。

Some (inaudible) on tariffs here. If the EU implemented tariffs on Russian product, what's your thought on how like UAN trade flows range? So could you see more Russia and UAN go into the US? And then maybe does it make more sense for the US. I understand that there's a benefit from the tariffs right now and other sources, but Russian doesn't a lot to the US on the UAN? Like does it make more sense to send it into Europe tariffs are at high and Russian product into Europe.

這裡有一些（聽不清楚）關於關稅的內容。如果歐盟對俄羅斯產品徵收關稅，您認為 UAN 貿易流量會如何變化？那你會看到更多的俄羅斯和UAN進入美國嗎？那麼這對美國來說可能更有意義。我知道現在關稅和其他來源都有好處，但俄羅斯在 UAN 方面對美國沒有太大幫助嗎？例如，將俄羅斯產品運往歐洲是否更有意義，因為歐洲的關稅很高。

So there are -- those are being discussed and implemented for a Russian product into the EU, and there are various discussions on different structures. But that could be an eventual outcome. We are an exporter to the EU and the UK for UAN and have been for years and have some very good partners there that we are in conversations with and supplying. So I think with a few years ago, there was a urea plant that was dropped in that took away some of the UAN capacity that Russia had (inaudible) and I do think they are more balancing in terms of what we see from behavior of -- in terms of the -- what's the value of the end molecule in terms of (inaudible) urea, ammonia or ammonia nitrate.

因此，我們正在討論並實施俄羅斯產品進入歐盟的措施，並且針對不同的結構進行了各種討論。但這可能是最終的結果。我們是 UAN 向歐盟和英國的出口商，多年來一直如此，並且在那裡擁有一些非常好的合作夥伴，我們正在與他們進行洽談並提供產品。因此，我認為幾年前，有一家尿素工廠被放棄，這佔用了俄羅斯的部分 UAN 產能（聽不清），我確實認為，就我們所看到的行為而言，它們更加平衡 - 就最終分子（聽不清）的價值而言（尿素、氨或硝酸銨）。

And so the volume that comes to the US today, I would assume that continues, at least in the present structure of tariffs and 0 tariffs on Russian product probably continue at the same level. And then we'll see how the rest of the world settles out.

因此，我認為，今天進入美國的俄羅斯產品數量至少在目前的關稅結構下會持續下去，對俄羅斯產品徵收零關稅可能會保持在同一水平。然後我們再看看世界其他地區的情況如何。

Okay. And then maybe just to clean ammonia pricing when you are discussing your potential customers. I'm just curious like what factors you talked about, are you talking about like energy content equivalent and then look at that from price -- equivalent pricing you -- for industrial users, you take like a merchant ammonia and then put a clean ammonia premium on it. You're building a new plant, the returns factor into those pricing conversations? Any of that detail would be great.

好的。然後，當您討論潛在客戶時，也許只是為了清理氨定價。我只是好奇您談到了哪些因素，您是在談論能量含量當量，然後從價格來看 - 等價定價 - 對於工業用戶，您採用像商用氨那樣的商品，然後對其加收清潔氨溢價。您正在建造一個新工廠，回報因素是否會影響定價討論？任何細節都很棒。

In terms of how this is being laid out in the market, it's a fairly understood value proposition of low carbon. And so as companies look at their scope emissions and their structures and what they're doing, what they need, whether that be in ag with the corn value chain or with an industrial production such as a synthetic fiber producer or ammonia is a chemical intermediate.

就其在市場上的佈局而言，這是一個相當容易理解的低碳價值主張。因此，當公司審視其排放範圍、結構和所做的事情時，他們需要什麼，無論是在玉米價值鏈中還是在工業生產中，例如合成纖維生產商或氨，都是化學中間體。

Everyone is trying to improve their position and obviously, cost structure. So the conversations with the customers are if we have this product. It is a unique product that's coming online, and this is part of the preparation of get ready. Are you interested? Okay, you're interested at what level. How does this work with contracts because we want to contract generally on an industrial basis, we have annual or multiyear contracts. And then you're exactly right.

每個人都在努力改善自己的地位，顯然還有成本結構。因此與客戶的對話是關於我們是否有這個產品。這是一款即將上線的獨特產品，這是準備工作的一部分。你有興趣嗎？好的，你感興趣的是哪個等級。這與合約如何運作？因為我們通常希望在行業基礎上簽訂合同，所以我們簽訂的是年度或多年期合約。那你完全正確。

The one fact we talk about is we're going to have a separate line item for the value of low-carbon ammonia. And the intention is that initially, that will start off at a fairly lower level. And then as demand builds, then there'll be a competition for the molecule. But the first series of low-carbon ammonia that's coming off of Donaldsonville with the CCS program in Q3 as in preparation for the new plant that will come on in 2029.

我們談論的一個事實是，我們將為低碳氨的價值設立一個單獨的項目。我們的目的是，最初從一個相當低的水平開始。隨著需求的增加，分子的競爭就會出現。但是，第一批低碳氨將於第三季透過 CCS 計劃從唐納森維爾生產出來，為 2029 年投入使用的新工廠做準備。

And that will be, I would say, if not low, close to 0 carbon product, and that's even more attractive to the market. So what you see from CF is -- like anything, we're well prepared. We're in the market. We're communicating clearly with our customers with the expectation of a carbon premium for this product.

我想說，這將是接近零碳排放的產品，這對市場來說更有吸引力。因此，您從 CF 看到的是——就像任何事情一樣，我們已經做好了充分的準備。我們已經進入市場。我們正在與客戶進行清晰的溝通，期望產品能帶來碳溢價。

Benjamin Theurer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本傑明‧圖爾 (Benjamin Theurer)。

One quick one is you saw news that the Chinese government setting an export window from May through September for urea as it relates to the potential quota to be similar to the 2023 level. So when we look through your materials, is that something that's basically as expected from you guys? Or is that meaningful from a negative perspective just as it goes out?

一個簡單的例子是，您看到有消息稱，中國政府設定了從 5 月到 9 月的尿素出口窗口，因為其潛在配額與 2023 年的水平相似。那麼，當我們查看你們的資料時，這基本上和你們預期的一樣嗎？或者從消極的角度來看這是否有意義？

And also if you could comment anything around the fact that the Chinese are restricting this to India, which seems to be a big purchase. And then I have a quick follow-up on gas markets.

另外，如果您能對中國將此限制在印度這一事實發表評論，這似乎是一筆大買賣。然後我將快速跟進天然氣市場。

Yes. So the world is very tight and arguably short urea capacity. So the world really needs these tons to become available and part of the global trade flow. We're fully expecting and have considered somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million, maybe 4 million tons to come out of China during this period of time. And so I think that's wholly consistent with our expectations.

是的。因此，世界尿素產能非常緊張，甚至可以說短缺。因此，世界確實需要這些噸位的資源，並將它們納入全球貿易流。我們完全預計，並且已經考慮到在此期間中國將出口約 300 萬噸，甚至 400 萬噸。所以我認為這完全符合我們的期望。

One of the things to keep an eye on is what happens to the domestic price of urea within China because the last time the or got opened and price started rising, they rescinded providing export licenses to people. And so what came out was actually a lot less than what was expected. But we think that the world really needs these tons. And so it's helpful to the overall functioning market.

需要關注的事情之一是中國國內尿素價格的變化，因為上次市場開放、價格開始上漲時，他們就撤銷了向人們發放出口許可證。因此，實際結果比預期的要少得多。但我們認為世界確實需要這些噸。因此，這對整個市場的運作是有幫助的。

Okay. And then there has been noise that goes into different direction. Some say there might be US and Russia trying to work together to figure out the gas flow back to the European Union, what basically was cut with the invasion back a few years ago. But I always say that the European Union is considering a potential embargo actually on Russian gas.

好的。然後就有噪音傳向不同的方向。有人說，美國和俄羅斯可能正在試圖合作解決天然氣回流歐盟的問題，幾年前入侵歐盟後，天然氣供應基本上被切斷了。但我總是說，歐盟正在考慮對俄羅斯天然氣實施禁運。

Have you seen or heard any news -- any comment that you have as to the expectations for that Russian gas into Europe? (technical difficulty) how would we want to think about this for the gas price in Europe.

您是否看到或聽到任何新聞——您對俄羅斯天然氣進入歐洲的預期有何評論？（技術難題）我們該如何看待歐洲的天然氣價格？

Yeah. The initiative that we've been kind of following is the plan to basically completely wean Europe off of Russian gas by '27 and really provide a restriction on access to that marketplace. So I don't know what the US has to say about that or the role that we play, because if the Europeans decide they don't want it, there's very little other people can do to make them take it.

是的。我們一直在遵循的計劃是到 27 年徹底讓歐洲擺脫對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴，並真正限制歐洲進入俄羅斯市場。所以我不知道美國對此有何看法或我們所扮演的角色，因為如果歐洲人決定他們不想要它，其他人幾乎無法強迫他們接受它。

So that -- that is very much a European policy issue, which I'm afraid is these days almost as opaque as Washington is.

所以，這在很大程度上是一個歐洲政策問題，我擔心如今歐洲的政策幾乎和華盛頓一樣不透明。

Jordan Lee, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬丹李 (Jordan Lee)。

We are seeing a pretty strong divergence between urea and ammonia prices currently. In terms of the delta and margin between the two, can you talk about how it compares to history and how you expect that to play out going forward?

目前我們看到尿素和合成氨價格之間存在相當大的差異。就兩者之間的差異和幅度而言，您能否談談它與歷史相比如何，以及您預計未來會如何發展？

We're seeing a divergence internationally. And the -- in ammonia today, the market is -- and I talked about this in my prepared remarks, with the two plants that are coming online in the Gulf Coast, today, the market in the East is long or longer and you've seen a price differential between east and west markets. And then with the expectation of these two plants, which would be probably in excess of 200,000 tons a month coming online needing to find a home. That's the projected weakness. And you're correct, there is a divergence and urea is staying fairly stronger worldwide, almost closed ammonia parity at $400 a ton coming into North America or Brazil.

我們看到了國際上的分歧。如今，氨市場是——我在準備好的演講中談到了這一點，隨著墨西哥灣沿岸兩家工廠的投產，如今東部市場已經很長或更長，你已經看到了東西方市場之間的價格差異。預計這兩家工廠每月將有超過 20 萬噸的廢鋼投入生產，需要找到合適的地方。這就是預計的弱點。您說得對，確實存在分歧，而且全球範圍內的尿素價格保持相當強勢，北美或巴西的氨價格幾乎接近每噸 400 美元。

And so that's a reflection of supply and demand and additional supply coming on. And in terms of how that looks historically, that's been imbalance. And I would expect that to be corrected through the addition of additional urea plants being built to soak up some of that extra ton as well as what we've talked about is the growth in consumption of ammonia as a feedstock and in low-carbon markets.

這反映了供需關係以及即將出現的額外供應。從歷史角度來看，這種情況一直存在著不平衡。我希望透過增加尿素工廠的建設來吸收部分額外的產量，以及我們所討論的作為原料的氨的消費量的增長以及低碳市場的氨的消費量的增長來糾正這個問題。

I'd also, though, add to that, it's important to separate the price of traded ammonia, Tampa, North Sea, other pricing points versus the price of ammonia and the interior used for agricultural applications. Those two are historically fairly different. And the tone or the new plants that Bert is referencing, those don't have access to in-market terminals in the corn belt for use in agricultural applications. So those are going to be focused exclusively on the merchant market globally. And so that's why you see a little bit of, as Bert said, kind of that overhang in divergence.

不過，我還要補充一點，將交易氨的價格、坦帕、北海和其他定價點的價格與用於農業應用的氨的價格和內陸地區的價格區分開來是很重要的。從歷史上看，這兩者是相當不同的。伯特提到的新植物無法進入玉米帶的市場終端用於農業應用。因此，這些將專注於全球商家市場。所以這就是為什麼你會看到一點點，正如伯特所說的那樣，分歧的懸而未決。

But from an in-market agricultural application, the price of ammonia is still very strong, although you're also getting near the end of the application window, whereas urea requirements are still very, very strong, and that's also part of the reason why you see a difference there as well.

但從市場農業應用來看，儘管應用視窗期已經接近尾聲，但氨的價格仍然非常堅挺，而尿素需求仍然非常強勁，這也是為什麼會出現差異的原因之一。

Got it. Okay. And the general sense was that farmers under ply last fall, do you think you farmers will get down all of the nitrogen that they would like to this spring? Or are there any constraints such as the urea or UAN supply that you would call out?

知道了。好的。普遍的感覺是，去年秋天農民開始施氮，您認為今年春天農民能獲得他們想要的所有氮嗎？或者是否存在任何限制因素，例如您會指出的尿素或 UAN 供應問題？

I think there's a question on availability of the end or type of end that farmers in different regions are wanting. So Tony talked about ammonia in the Midwest. And it has been very attractive out of our terminals, that's probably around $650 a ton where you talked about the international market at $400. But there is a very tight market today in North America for urea and UAN. And we expect that maybe additional side dress of ammonia will take place that maybe wouldn't have in other years.

我認為不同地區的農民對末端或末端類型的需求有差異。因此托尼談到了中西部的氨。我們的終端價格非常有吸引力，大約在每噸 650 美元左右，而您說的國際市場價格為每噸 400 美元。但目前北美的尿素和 UAN 市場非常緊張。我們預計，今年可能會額外添加氨，而這在其他年份可能不會發生。

But today, when you look at the corn bean ratio and the crop insurance for the revenue guarantees that are available to a farmer, selecting corn this year makes economic sense. And then if that's the case, maximizing yield through the use of nitrogen makes ultimate sense.

但今天，當你看到玉米豆比例和農作物保險為農民提供的收入保障時，你會發現今年選擇玉米是具有經濟意義的。如果事實確實如此，那麼透過使用氮來最大限度地提高產量就變得十分合理。

And so we're actually seeing -- and we talked about this in the prepared remarks, the 95 million acres is probably going to be higher just based on what we're seeing with demand. And for exactly your question on application rates, I would say today, they're probably going to be higher and you're going to see yields in irrigated areas and high-yielding areas of the i states, probably pretty good. But the dry land places, I think, will be interesting as well. So we do have a stocks-to-use ratio that's very low for corn globally. And so there's a need for this product to be produced in North America, and it's been a very exciting market.

因此，我們實際上看到——我們在準備好的演講中也談到了這一點，根據我們看到的需求情況，9500 萬英畝的種植面積可能還會更高。關於您提到的施用率問題，我今天想說，施用率可能會更高，而且您會看到 i 州灌溉區和高產區的產量可能會相當不錯。但我認為，陸地上的地方也很有趣。因此，全球玉米的庫存使用比確實非常低。因此，需要在北美生產該產品，這是一個非常令人興奮的市場。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Guys, when you're looking at given the level of grain inventories crop prices, as you said, start to use ratio levels. Like how would you describe the current ad fundamentals like good, great, mix? And it could be either like globally or in the US? Like how would you describe the ag fundamentals right now?

夥計們，當你們考慮到糧食庫存水準和農作物價格時，正如你們所說的，開始使用比率水準。例如，您如何描述目前的廣告基本面，例如好、優秀、混合？它可能發生在全球範圍內，也可能發生在美國？您如何描述目前的農業基本面？

Yes, it would be differentiated based on obviously location crop and activity and timing. So the inventories for a specific to corn, as we've been talking about our favorite consumer of nitrogen are very low globally. You're at decade lows, globally, excluding China, and that's kind of a question mark and always has been with what inventories are there. But the fundamentals at the farm gate are not as positive as they have been in the previous several years based on cost of inputs, cost of land rent and the output values of corn and soybeans and wheat. And so with crush margins suffering and soybeans a little bit lower, that's why we believe will be the preferred choice we're available in North America.

是的，它會根據位置作物、活動和時間進行區分。因此，正如我們一直在談論的，我們最喜歡的氮消耗作物玉米的庫存在全球範圍內都非常低。全球（不包括中國）庫存處於十年來的最低水平，這是一個問號，而且對於那裡的庫存情況一直是一個問號。但從投入成本、土地租金成本以及玉米、大豆和小麥的產值來看，農場基本面並不像前幾年那麼樂觀。因此，由於壓榨利潤率下降且大豆價格略有下降，我們相信這將是我們在北美的首選。

What has happened in other years is sometimes like in places like Brazil or Argentina devaluations that assist farmers in terms of their profitability. You've seen some taxes come off in Argentina. And so we see those countries continue to grow but also growth along the side of protein production and ethanol production specific to Brazil. So it's different in different places. Europe is subsidized, India is subsidized.

往年發生的情況有時與巴西或阿根廷等地的情況類似，貨幣貶值有助於農民提​​高獲利能力。你已經看到阿根廷取消了一些稅收。因此，我們看到這些國家不僅持續成長，而且巴西的蛋白質產量和乙醇產量也在增加。所以不同地方的情況有所不同。歐洲有補貼，印度也有補助。

And an interesting side note is also the growth of urea consumption in China, both for ag and industry that China's consumption has grown substantially of urea. But again, it's subsidized with low-cost coal and a very inexpensive product is related to the world market.

有趣的是，中國的尿素消費量也在成長，無論是農業或工業，中國的尿素消費量都大幅成長。但同樣，它得到了低成本煤炭的補貼，並且非常便宜的產品與世界市場相關。

So all to say, differentiated market, I think, for the US farmer or North American farmer a challenge, but acceptable historical regard to returns, but they need to watch their dollars and cents.

所以總而言之，我認為差異化市場對於美國農民或北美農民來說是一個挑戰，但從歷史回報來看是可以接受的，但他們需要注意自己的錢。

Jeffrey Zekauskas, JP Morgan.

摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 的 Jeffrey Zekauskas。

Was the quarter in some ways, unusual offerable in that sequentially, your gas costs were up maybe $1.25 per MMBtu? And maybe sequentially, that's something like, I don't know, $130 million in cost inflation. And your cost of goods sold was up sequentially, maybe by about $90 million. Can you talk about the -- I get it, you sold a few more tons in the first quarter than you did in the fourth, and your price per ton was a little bit higher. But when you net it out, it seemed that the sequential change was a little bit larger than expected.

從某種程度上來說，本季的天然氣成本是否比上一季上漲了 1.25 美元/百萬英熱單位，這是否顯得有些異常？或許按順序來說，成本膨脹大概是 1.3 億美元，我不知道。您的銷售成本也隨之增加，大概增加了 9,000 萬美元。您能談談嗎——我明白了，您第一季的銷量比第四季度多了幾噸，而且每噸的價格也高了一點。但當你把它扣除後，似乎連續的變化比預期的要大一點。

Yes, I think it comes down to, as you said, just a couple of big moving pieces here, which is, Bert was able to get great price realization against a little bit of a headwind of higher gas costs, which subtracted from that a little bit. And that remains very robust. But the way we think about this business, we continue to come back to this over and over again, which is because we try to run our plant to 24/7 365, there is a maximum amount of capacity that we have and we run it as close to full as we possibly can, and we can only produce or sell what we produce. And fortunately, the plants and old network ran really, really well in the first quarter and are continuing to run really well in the second quarter. And you get a little bit of inventory fluctuations here or there.

是的，我認為，正如你所說，這歸結於幾個重要的因素，也就是說，伯特能夠在天然氣成本上漲的一點點阻力下實現巨大的價格，而天然氣成本上漲稍微減損了這一點。而且這股勢頭依然強勁。但是，我們對這項業務的看法是，我們會一次又一次地回到這個問題上，這是因為我們試圖讓我們的工廠 24/7 全年無休地運轉，我們擁有的最大產能是有限的，我們會盡可能地滿負荷運轉，我們只能生產或銷售我們生產的產品。幸運的是，工廠和舊網路在第一季運作得非常好，並且在第二季繼續保持良好的運作狀態。您可能會發現這裡或那裡的庫存有些波動。

But we think about the business on a half year on a full year basis, not on an individual quarter basis. And like you said, though, which is good price realization, a little bit of headwind on the gas front. But going into the second quarter, we've got much more moderated gas environment and even stronger pricing environment than where we entered into Q1. And so we're excited about what the first half of this year looks like.

但我們是以半年為單位，以全年為單位來考慮業務的，而不是以單一季度為單位。但就像你說的，這是很好的價格實現，在天然氣方面有點逆風。但進入第二季度，我們的天然氣環境比第一季更加溫和，定價環境甚至更加強勁。因此，我們對今年上半年的前景感到興奮。

And Jeff, I would actually add to that our controllable cost per ton were actually significantly lower than what they have been in the past. So that's our cost of goods sold less our gas and depreciation in our distribution. So we're actually, to Tony's point, how we are producing at 100% utilization.

傑夫，我實際上想補充一點，我們每噸的可控成本實際上比過去低得多。這就是我們的銷售成本減去汽油和分銷中的折舊。因此，正如 Tony 所說，我們的生產利用率實際上是 100%。

We saw those benefits come through in controllable. What you're seeing in the COGS is related, as you mentioned, to a higher gas costs on a sequential basis. but also the purchases that come into the UK and also our LSB agreement where we purchased some of their ammonia tons and then additionally, our point leases. So as those prices were elevated a little bit, you see that in COGS.

我們看到這些好處是可以控制的。正如您所提到的，您在 COGS 中看到的與連續更高的天然氣成本有關。還有進入英國的採購，以及我們的 LSB 協議，我們根據該協議購買了他們的部分氨噸，此外還有我們的點租賃。因此，隨著這些價格略有上漲，你會在 COGS 中看到這一點。

When you back those out from that perspective, you're actually going to see a much more efficient quarter than what we had in Q4 and definitely what we had in prior year quarter.

當你從這個角度回顧這些時，你實際上會看到一個比第四季度更有效率的季度，而且肯定比去年同期更有效率。

Okay. And in terms of your capital expenditures that are actually your own what might they be in 2026 or '27 ballpark exclusive of the monies that would come from --

好的。就你們自己的資本支出而言，2026 年或 2027 年大概是多少，不包括來自--

Yes. I mean, I think our business historically has run about $500 billion a year for the legacy business. That includes a little bit of improvement capital like we've done with the CCS projects and expanding our DEF capacity and some of those things and also allowing us to invest in infrastructure on the IT side and so forth.

是的。我的意思是，我認為從歷史上看，我們的傳統業務每年的營收約為 5000 億美元。其中包括一些改進資本，就像我們在 CCS 專案中所做的那樣，以及擴大我們的 DEF 容量等等，也允許我們在 IT 方面的基礎設施方面進行投資等等。

So $500 billion is a pretty reasonable estimate year in and year out for how we've been able to manage the business. And then as we look at our portion of the CapEx for Blue Point next year, it's not really until you get out to '27 and '28, that the bulk of that money starts getting spent. Chris said, we are going to be doing some site prep and whatnot this year. There's going to be a little bit of civil work that gets done next year. I'd expect next year to run somewhere in the neighborhood of about $300 million in terms of '26.

因此，對於我們管理業務的能力而言，每年 5000 億美元是一個相當合理的估計。然後，當我們查看明年 Blue Point 的資本支出份額時，實際上直到 27 年和 28 年，大部分資金才開始被花掉。克里斯說，我們今年要做一些場地準備等等。明年將會完成一些土木工程。我預計明年的營業額將在 26 億美元左右。

And so we're still talking I don't know, $750 million to $800-ish million is of our CapEx.

所以我們仍在談論，我不知道，7.5 億美元到 8 億美元左右是我們的資本支出。

Okay. And then where is the carbon dioxide going to be stored for Donald Sondville exactly? And who's going to store it?

好的。那麼唐納德·桑德維爾的二氧化碳究竟要儲存在哪裡呢？誰來儲存它？

Yes. So we have an ongoing active dialogue with our partner, ExxonMobil. And they have a number of different alternatives and different permits that are in kind of advanced stages. And so we're working through the details on that to partner with them, and it may mean that we go to EOR for a couple of months until that Class 6 permit comes through or we may opt to just wait until the Classic is ready to go. Those are ongoing conversations between the two of us to make sure that we maximize the economics around the project.

是的。因此，我們與合作夥伴埃克森美孚保持著持續積極的對話。他們有許多不同的替代方案和不同的許可證，目前這些方案和許可證都處於後期階段。因此，我們正在研究與他們合作的細節，這可能意味著我們要去 EOR 幾個月，直到獲得 6 級許可證，或者我們可能選擇等到 Classic 準備好了。我們兩人之間一直在進行對話，以確保最大限度地提高該項目的經濟效益。

But as we've mentioned in our earlier remarks, we expect to begin likely flowing gas here in the second, third quarters, and we're excited about the outcome, not only from the standpoint of reducing greenhouse gas emissions with getting the 45Q credit and having a low-carbon product and that Bert can take into the marketplace with a premium.

但正如我們在先前的評論中提到的那樣，我們預計第二、第三季可能會開始在這裡輸送天然氣，我們對這一結果感到興奮，不僅從減少溫室氣體排放的角度來看，獲得 45Q 信用和擁有低碳產品，而且 Bert 可以以溢價進入市場。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

It's a while away, but I'd be curious what your plan is in terms of how you're going to report Blue Point within your financials. Are you intending to just put it in the existing ammonia segment? Or is this an opportunity for some differentiation and maybe or maybe not including your other ammonia facilities have contracted volume that have sort of less volatility in their profitability through the cycle. How are you thinking of disclosing everything to us?

雖然還需要一段時間，但我很好奇你們計劃如何在財務報表中報告 Blue Point。您是否打算將其放入現有的氨段中？或者這是進行一些差異化的機會，也許包括或不包括您的其他氨設施的合約量，這些氨設施在整個週期內的盈利能力波動較小。你怎麼會想向我們透露一切？

Yes. Vincent, it's Greg. So first big step we've gone through is made the determination that we're going to consolidate the entire entity into our financials, and that's our plan to do that. So the first part will be all the revenue and costs associated with Blue Point for our share as well as our partners will come through our statement and then we'll take that out at the end through the 60% that goes to them through the non-tolling inter side. Given that the product is ammonia, our expectation is that we will likely report this in the ammonia segment and keep our business segment intact is the way they are. There's a way in which we run the business that's consistent with how we report it and the team that runs the ammonia segment from a commercial standpoint will be as responsible for these tonnes as they are for the other times coming out of out of our other facilities, so I don't foresee a change at all in that.

是的。文森特，我是格雷格。因此，我們邁出的第一大步就是決定將整個實體合併到我們的財務中，而這就是我們的計劃。因此，第一部分將是與 Blue Point 相關的我們以及我們的合作夥伴份額的所有收入和成本，這些收入和成本將透過我們的報表體現出來，然後我們將在最後透過非收費方面從他們獲得的 60% 中扣除。鑑於產品是氨，我們預計我們可能會在氨部門報告這一點，並保持我們的業務部門保持原樣。我們經營業務的方式與我們的報告方式一致，從商業角度來看，負責運營氨部門的團隊將對這些噸位負責，就像對我們其他設施生產的其他噸位負責一樣，所以我預計這方面不會發生任何變化。

And then as we do get into reporting and you're going to see this in the second quarter, you saw it in our press release this time where we talked about the CapEx of the entire entity. When you get to the second quarter financials since we're receiving as from the joint venture, our cash balances will include what the joint venture is consolidated in. But we will break that out through the footnotes and other disclosures. So people have perfect clarity on where the legacy business is in addition plus where the JV is to get to the total. So we'll make it as easy as we can to make sure that you can do your comparisons year over year, quarter over quarter as we move forward.

然後，當我們開始報告時，您將在第二季度看到這一點，您會在我們這次的新聞稿中看到，我們討論了整個實體的資本支出。當您看到第二季的財務數據時，由於我們從合資企業獲得了現金，我們的現金餘額將包括合資企業的合併金額。但我們將透過腳註和其他披露來闡明這一點。因此，人們非常清楚傳統業務的去向以及合資企業的整體目標。因此，我們會盡可能簡化流程，確保您能夠進行逐年、逐季的比較。

Okay. And as a follow-up, you're obviously in conversations both for the Blue Point product out of T Will and then ultimately, for Blue Point. What type of offtake agreements are you looking for? Do you feel the need to have them? Or is there some percent of the volume you'd like to have on them?

好的。作為後續，您顯然正在討論 T Will 的 Blue Point 產品，以及最終的 Blue Point 產品。您正在尋找什麼類型的承購協議？您覺得有必要擁有它們嗎？或者您希望它們具有一定百分比的音量？

What are the resort you just sort of open to anything at this point, given it's so far away.

考慮到距離這麼遠，目前願意選擇去哪個度假村？

Yes. I mean, I would say, in general, when you are locking in prearranged offtake agreement, you tend to do it off of some type of either gas plus basis or there may be a mix of gas plus end market kind of impact on it. And as just a broad brush generality that tends to be lower margin over long periods of time than us having an ability to move it into the marketplaces and take advantage of some of the upside opportunities that the market provides. So for instance, our historical contracts on ammonia supply to Mosaic, while played a very important role as we brought on the Donaldsonville project and actually what was helpful to us as a natural hedge in the first year due because the contract was above where market price was -- it has been a fantastic deal for Mosaic Eversense because it's trading at -- but the contract formula is well below what we've otherwise been able to achieve.

是的。我的意思是，我想說，一般來說，當你鎖定預先安排的承購協議時，你傾向於根據某種類型的天然氣加基礎來進行，或者可能會有天然氣加終端市場的混合對其產生影響。廣義上講，長期來看，利潤率往往較低，而我們有能力將其轉移到市場並利用市場提供的一些上行機會。舉例來說，我們與 Mosaic 簽訂的歷史氨供應合約在我們啟動 Donaldsonville 項目時發揮了非常重要的作用，實際上，由於合約價格高於市場價格，這在第一年對我們起到了自然對沖的作用 - 這對 Mosaic Eversense 來說是一筆很棒的交易，因為它的交易價格為 - 但合約水平遠低於我們能夠實現的公式。

And just on the scope and size of our operation. We may consider small pieces of it that makes sense, but we're certainly not looking to pre-contract the whole of our production volume because again, historically, we've been able to get much better returns by allowing Bert to do what he does best.

僅涉及我們營運的範圍和規模。我們可能會考慮其中有意義的小部分，但我們肯定不會考慮預先簽訂整個生產量的合同，因為從歷史上看，我們能夠通過讓伯特做他最擅長的事情來獲得更好的回報。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets)。

Sorry for the follow-up. I think, Tony, I think you said that run rate sort of CapEx next year might be $750 million to $800 million. But when you look at your slide 11, I think, you add up the numbers, assuming $500 million maintenance, you get to something like $9 million to $950 million. Can you just clarify?

抱歉，請繼續關注。東尼，我想你說過明年的資本支出運行率可能是 7.5 億到 8 億美元。但是當您查看第 11 張投影片時，我認為，將這些數字加起來，假設維護費用為 5 億美元，那麼您將獲得 900 萬到 9.5 億美元左右的數字。你能解釋一下嗎？

Yes. Joel, I think what Tony was talking about, one was the CF portion. And what you should look at probably '25 and '26, we're going to have 10% to 15% each of those years of our total amount. So as I mentioned, we have $500 million that is our EHS and sustaining CapEx. And then incremental to that, you can kind of plan about circa $150 million over the next two years.

是的。喬爾，我認為托尼談論的是 CF 部分。您應該看看 25 年和 26 年，我們每年的總額將佔 10% 到 15%。正如我所提到的，我們有 5 億美元的 EHS 和維持資本支出。然後在此基礎上逐步增加，你就可以在未來兩年內規劃約 1.5 億美元。

It's really '27 and '28, as you're referencing the slide in our deck where you start to see a little bit larger, which would be a couple of hundred million dollars for CF coming out in '27 and '28 and then a light tail in '29 when the project comes online. So I -- I was going to say, so if you had to kind of bundle where we think we're going to be this year, it's about $650 million this year, probably slightly north of that next year, not by much, and then increasing in the '27, '28 period --

這實際上是 27 年和 28 年，正如您所參考的我們幻燈片中顯示的，您可以看到更大的數字，即 27 年和 28 年推出的 CF 的幾億美元，然後在 29 年項目上線時進行輕度尾註。所以我想說，如果你必須把我們今年的預算綁在一起，那麼今年的預算大約是 6.5 億美元，可能比明年略高一些，但幅度不會太大，然後在 27、28 年期間會增加。--

And I'm still confused because that slide, if you add up the numbers suggest it's a little over $900 million next year. So where am I wrong? Or what's next?

我仍然感到困惑，因為那張幻燈片顯示，如果把數字加起來，明年的金額將略高於 9 億美元。那我錯在哪裡了？或者接下來會發生什麼事？

So are you taking it just as portion of that, which is a 40% --

那麼，你只是把它當作其中的一部分，也就是 40%——

40% Yes. $500 million maintenance, plus 40% of 15% and then 100% of 35%.

40%是的。 5 億美元的維護費，加上 15% 的 40%，然後是 35% 的 100%。

Yes.

是的。

Isn't that over $900 million.

那不是超過 9 億美元嗎？

100% of the --

100%的--

Yes. If you take the chart as we have and we've tilted them. So there's a range that we work with internally, and it close ties close to the tilt, but there's some tilt here. So if you take into account our sustaining at the $400 million to $500 million in that it's been before. And then Blue Point this year, we've got in $150 million that is about the same, as Chris said, next year, up slightly.

是的。如果您按照我們的圖表來看，我們已經傾斜了它們。因此，我們在內部處理一個範圍，它與傾斜度密切相關，但這裡有一些傾斜。因此，如果你考慮到我們之前維持的 4 億至 5 億美元的水平。然後，今年我們在 Blue Point 獲得了 1.5 億美元的資金，這大致相同，正如克里斯所說，明年將略有增加。

And then as well, when you take in the scalable infrastructure for a little bit more, it does move you up closer to that number that you gave there.

然後同樣，當您將可擴展的基礎設施再多考慮一點時，它確實會使您更接近您給出的那個數字。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Martin Zurowski. Any closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給馬丁·祖羅夫斯基先生。有任何結束語嗎？

Thanks for joining us today, and we look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences.

感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待在即將舉行的會議上見到您。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。