CF工業控股 (CF) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CF Industries first 9 months and third quarter 2024. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today, Mr. Martin Jarosick with CF Investor Relations. Sir, please proceed.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到 CF Industries 2024 年前 9 個月和第三季。（操作員說明）我現在想將簡報交給今天的東道主 CF 投資者關係部的 Martin Jarosick 先生。先生，請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Tony Will, President and CEO; Chris Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Bert Frost, Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain; and Greg Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加 CF Industries 的財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Tony Will； Chris Bohn，執行副總裁兼營運長； Bert Frost，銷售、市場開發和供應鏈執行副總裁；執行副總裁兼財務長 Greg Cameron。

CF Industries reported its results for the first 9 months and third quarter of 2024 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook and then host a question-and-answer session. Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.

CF Industries 昨天下午公佈了 2024 年前 9 個月和第三季的業績。在這次電話會議上，我們將審查結果，討論我們的前景，然後主持問答會議。本次電話會議和我們網站上的簡報中所作的非歷史事實的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述不是對未來業績的保證，並且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。

Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you will find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website. Now let me introduce Tony Will.

因此，實際結果可能與任何聲明中明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。此外，您還可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿和簡報中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 衡量標準之間的調整表。現在讓我介紹一下托尼威爾。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. We are an organization that prides itself on unparalleled operational excellence. Our asset utilization and our safety statistics are truly world-class. And so it is with great sadness that I have to report in early October, we lost a member of our team at Donaldsonville, Louisiana due to a fatal vehicular accident. Our thoughts are with and our hearts go out to his family, friends and colleagues.

謝謝馬丁，大家早安。我們是一家以無與倫比的卓越營運而自豪的組織。我們的資產利用率和安全統計數據確實是世界一流的。因此，我必須非常悲傷地在 10 月初報告，由於一場致命的車禍，我們在路易斯安那州唐納森維爾失去了一名團隊成員。我們的思念與心與他的家人、朋友和同事同在。

This is a tragic reminder about why we put safety first and the importance of not being satisfied who are becoming complacent with historical performance, but our need to remain focused on the present in everything that we do. I am confident our team will learn from the strategy as we work together to ensure all our colleagues remain safe every day.

這是一個悲劇性的提醒，提醒我們為什麼要把安全放在第一位，也不要滿足於對歷史表現感到自滿，但我們需要在我們所做的一切事情中繼續專注於現在。我相信我們的團隊將從該策略中學習，共同努力確保所有同事每天都保持安全。

Turning to earnings. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the third quarter of 2024 in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $511 million. This brought adjusted EBITDA for the first 9 months of the year to $1.7 billion.

轉向收益。昨天下午，我們發布了 2024 年第三季的業績，其中調整後 EBITDA 為 5.11 億美元。這使得今年前 9 個月的調整後 EBITDA 達到 17 億美元。

Additionally, our EBITDA to cash flow conversion efficiency remains strong, and we ended the quarter with more cash on the balance sheet that we began with even after returning $580 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

此外，我們的 EBITDA 到現金流的轉換效率仍然強勁，即使在透過股票回購和股息向股東返還 5.8 億美元之後，我們在本季度結束時資產負債表上的現金也比開始時有所增加。

We are very pleased with where our business is today. Our team is operating well, Global nitrogen demand remains consistently strong, and we continue to make progress on our strategic initiatives. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris to provide more details on our operating results. Chris?

我們對今天的業務狀況感到非常滿意。我們的團隊營運良好，全球氮需求持續強勁，我們的策略性舉措持續取得進展。這樣，我會將其轉交給克里斯，以提供有關我們營運表現的更多詳細資訊。克里斯？

Thanks, Tony. Our manufacturing and distribution teams managed operations well through an event-filled third quarter as we performed our highest level of planned turnaround activities for the year. We also experienced minor production impacts in Louisiana from Hurricane Francine in September. Our Donaldsonville and Wagman teams did an outstanding job, safely shutting down and starting up those facilities, limiting the downtime from the storm.

謝謝，托尼。我們的製造和分銷團隊在充滿活動的第三季度很好地管理了運營，因為我們執行了今年最高水平的計劃週轉活動。9 月份，路易斯安那州的弗朗辛颶風也對我們的生產造成了輕微影響。我們的唐納森維爾和瓦格納曼團隊做得非常出色，安全地關閉和啟動了這些設施，限制了風暴造成的停機時間。

Despite these events, our ammonia utilization rate for the third quarter was 93%. For the full year, we continue to expect to produce approximately 9.8 million tons of gross ammonia. Our strategic initiatives continue to advance construction of the dehydration and compression unit for our Donaldsonville Carbon Capture and question project is on track start-up for sequestration by ExxonMobil and 45Q tax credit generation is expected in 2025. Additionally, commissioning of our green ammonia project at Donaldsonville continues.

儘管發生了這些事件，我們第三季的氨利用率仍為 93%。我們繼續預計全年氨產量約 980 萬噸。我們的策略性舉措繼續推進唐納森維爾碳捕集脫水和壓縮裝置的建設，該項目正在按計劃啟動，由埃克森美孚封存，預計將於 2025 年產生 45Q 稅收抵免。此外，我們在唐納森維爾的綠色氨計畫仍在繼續調試。

Finally, our evaluation of the greenfield low-carbon ammonia plant is advancing well with a final investment decision expected in early 2025. We are nearing completion of our auto thermal reforming ammonia plant FEED study, giving us greater clarity on the capital required to construct new capacity.

最後，我們對新建低碳氨工廠的評估進展順利，預計 2025 年初做出最終投資決定。我們即將完成自熱重整合成氨工廠的 FEED 研究，這使我們更清楚地了解建造新產能所需的資本。

Alongside this, we continue to have productive discussions with our potential equity partners, other interested parties that continue to emerge and prospective long-term offtake partners. We continue to assess where the global nitrogen supply demand balance will be when a new plant would come online.

除此之外，我們繼續與潛在的股權合作夥伴、其他不斷出現的感興趣的各方以及潛在的長期承購合作夥伴進行富有成效的討論。我們將持續評估新廠投產後全球氮供應需求平衡。

As we look at it today, we expect a tightening global market over the next few years as projected new capacity growth does not keep pace with demand growth for traditional applications much less for new clean energy applications. With that, let me turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market.

正如我們今天所看到的，我們預計未來幾年全球市場將趨緊，因為預計的新產能成長無法跟上傳統應用的需求成長，更不用說新的清潔能源應用了。接下來，讓我把它交給伯特來討論全球氮肥市場。

Thanks, Chris. Our team had an active quarter that has positioned us well for the rest of 2024. Our UAN and ammonia fill programs were well received by customers and achieved our targets. We then continue to take new orders as global prices rose pushing the order book well into fourth quarter. This has resulted in much lower than normal inventory in our system, and we believe inventory is low throughout the North American nitrogen channel as well.

謝謝，克里斯。我們的團隊度過了一個活躍的季度，這使我們在 2024 年剩餘時間裡處於有利地位。我們的UAN和氨填充方案受到了客戶的好評並實現了我們的目標。隨著全球價格上漲，我們繼續接受新訂單，將訂單簿推至第四季。這導致我們系統中的庫存遠低於正常庫存，我們相信整個北美氮通路的庫存也很低。

Strong uptake and our fill program suggests good demand for nitrogen in the months ahead, including for fall ammonia applications if weather cooperates. Despite US crop prices that are under pressure from projected large harvests, today's nitrogen prices continue to represent good value for farmers. As a result, we currently expect North American planted acres in 2025 across all major crops will be similar to this year.

強勁的吸收和我們的填充計劃表明未來幾個月對氮的需求良好，包括在天氣條件允許的情況下秋季氨的應用。儘管美國農作物價格因預期大豐收而面臨壓力，但目前的氮肥價格對農民來說仍然具有良好的價值。因此，我們目前預計 2025 年北美所有主要作物的種植面積將與今年相似。

Globally, the nitrogen supply-demand balance continues to be constructive. Urea exports from China are 90% lower through September than the prior year and is unclear when Chinese producers will be allowed to resume exports. Additionally, lack of natural gas for nitrogen producers in Trinidad and Egypt reduced available supply in the third quarter at a time when we typically see length in the global market.

全球範圍內，氮肥供需平衡持續保持建設性。截至 9 月份，中國的尿素出口量比去年同期減少 90%，目前尚不清楚中國生產商何時可以恢復出口。此外，特立尼達和埃及的氮氣生產商缺乏天然氣，減少了第三季的可用供應，而此時我們通常會看到全球市場的供不應求。

At the same time, demand has been robust. Brazil and India both appeared to have significant urea import requirements to be met through the first quarter of 2025. We also have seen strong demand from smaller importing countries -- these include Australia, Thailand, Mexico and Turkey, among others, that have increased consumption over their 3-year averages. Against this backdrop, our manufacturing network remains firmly positioned in the low end of the global cost curve.

同時，需求也一直強勁。巴西和印度似乎都有大量尿素進口需求需要在 2025 年第一季滿足。我們也看到較小進口國的強勁需求，其中包括澳洲、泰國、墨西哥和土耳其等，這些國家的消費量超過了三年平均值。在此背景下，我們的製造網路仍然牢牢定位在全球成本曲線的低端。

Forward energy curves continue to suggest substantial energy spreads between North America and Europe, where the industry's marginal high-cost production is located. As a result, we expect attractive margin opportunities globally for our business in the near and longer term. With that, Greg will cover our financial performance.

遠期能源曲線繼續顯示北美和歐洲之間存在巨大的能源價差，而該產業的邊際高成本生產位於這兩個地區。因此，我們預計在短期和長期內，我們的業務將在全球範圍內獲得有吸引力的利潤機會。接下來，格雷格將報道我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Bert. For the first 9 months of 2024, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $890 million or $4.86 per diluted share. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were both over $1.7 billion.

謝謝，伯特。2024 年頭 9 個月，該公司報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤約為 8.9 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 4.86 美元。EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 均超過 17 億美元。

For the third quarter of 2024, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $276 million or $1.55 per diluted share. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were approximately $510 million. As you can see on slide 5, our third quarter results benefited from higher average selling prices, which were driven by our ammonia segment and lower realized gas costs when compared to the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季度，該公司報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤約為 2.76 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.55 美元。EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 約為 5.1 億美元。正如您在幻燈片5 中看到的那樣，我們第三季度的業績受益於平均銷售價格的上漲，這是由我們的氨業務部門推動的，並且與2023 年第三季度相比，實現的天然氣成本較低。

Over the past 12 months, our net cash from operations was $2.3 billion and free cash flow was approximately $1.5 billion. Our free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate remains strong at approximately 65%. This cash flow enables us to return substantial capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

過去 12 個月，我們的營運淨現金為 23 億美元，自由現金流約為 15 億美元。我們的自由現金流與調整後 EBITDA 的轉換率仍維持在 65% 左右的強勁水準。這種現金流使我們能夠透過股票回購和股利向股東返還大量資本。

Since the start of 2024, we have repurchased nearly 15 million shares for more than $1.1 billion, reducing our share count by 7.5% over that time. We have just under $1.5 billion remaining on our current share repurchase authorization, which we intend to complete before its expiration in December of 2025.

自 2024 年初以來，我們以超過 11 億美元的價格回購了近 1500 萬股股票，在此期間我們的股票數量減少了 7.5%。我們目前的股票回購授權還剩不到 15 億美元，我們打算在 2025 年 12 月到期前完成。

Based on our current market capitalization, this gives us the capacity to repurchase about 10% of our outstanding shares through the end of next year. With that, Tony will provide some closing remarks before we open the call to Q&A.

根據我們目前的市值，這使我們有能力在明年年底前回購約 10% 的流通股。在我們開始問答之前，托尼將發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Greg. Before I move on to your questions, I want to thank the entire team here at CF for their hard work and contributions in the third quarter. In what is typically our seasonally lowest volume and price quarter, their efforts enabled us to generate enough cash to cover capital expenditures, return nearly $600 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends and end the quarter with more cash than we began.

謝謝，格雷格。在我繼續回答你的問題之前，我要感謝 CF 整個團隊在第三季的辛勤工作和貢獻。在通常是季節性銷售和價格最低的季度，他們的努力使我們能夠產生足夠的現金來支付資本支出，透過股票回購和股息向股東返還近6 億美元，並在季度結束時獲得比開始時更多的現金。

We remain positive about the near- and longer-term outlook for the company. Global nitrogen dynamics remained consistently strong. Longer-term disciplined investments in low carbon ammonia production provide a robust growth platform for the company. Taken together, we expect to continue to drive strong cash generation and create substantial value for shareholders. With that, operator, we will now open the call to questions.

我們對公司的近期和長期前景保持樂觀。全球氮動態依然強勁。對低碳氨生產的長期嚴格投資為公司提供了強勁的成長平台。總而言之，我們預計將繼續推動強勁的現金生成，並為股東創造可觀的價值。接線員，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chris Parkinson, Credit Suisse.

克里斯帕金森，瑞士信貸。

Credit Suisse, that was interesting. So tell you guys -- when I take a step back and look at the supply-demand dynamics, you've lowered supply out of China, Europe, some gas issues in Trinidad, Egypt, et cetera, et cetera. Demand is pretty solid.

瑞士信貸，這很有趣。所以告訴你們——當我退一步看看供需動態時，你們已經減少了中國、歐洲的供應，以及特立尼達、埃及等地的一些天然氣問題。需求相當強勁。

Tony, when you take a step back and look at the current dynamics in the 2025 and your prospective cash flow, versus, obviously, some uncertainty regarding US, LNG, departed LNG towards the end of the decade, how do you calibrate your own thought process in terms of allocating that capital in terms of look at cash prospectively generating over the next, let's say, in 6 to 12 months to basically build out your network for the rest of the decade. Just any thoughts there would be very helpful.

東尼，當你退後一步，看看 2025 年的當前動態和你的預期現金流，與美國、液化天然氣、本世紀末液化天然氣的一些不確定性相比，你如何調整自己的想法就分配資本而言，著眼於未來（比方說，在6 到12 個月內）預期產生的現金，以便在接下來的十年中基本上建立您的網絡。任何想法都會非常有幫助。

Yes, Chris, I would say we have a bias towards deploying capital back into the business for growth if we find projects that we think can earn a rate of return that's above our cost of capital. And so our bias is definitely toward growth as a first step and then certainly returning excess cash to shareholders.

是的，克里斯，我想說，如果我們發現我們認為可以賺取高於我們資本成本的回報率的項目，我們就會傾向於將資本重新部署到業務中以實現成長。因此，我們的偏見肯定是把成長當作第一步，然後肯定會將多餘的現金回饋給股東。

As Greg said, during his remarks, we have just under $1.5 billion left under our share repurchase authorization, and we expect to be able to complete that by the end of next year, and that should drive an incremental approximately 10% accretion in terms of our shares. And so we're excited about both the growth aspect as well as our ability to take shares out of the marketplace. And both of those things, we think, will drive value for shareholders.

正如格雷格在演講中所說，我們的股票回購授權還剩下不到 15 億美元，我們預計能夠在明年年底前完成這項任務，這應該會推動股票回購授權增加約 10%。的股票。因此，我們對成長方面以及我們將股票撤出市場的能力感到興奮。我們認為，這兩件事都將為股東帶來價值。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up. Once again, just taking a step back. The first quarter, obviously, you had some winter storms of third quarter, so obviously, hurricanes are at unavoidable times. When I look into 2025 and 2026, do you think turnaround activity will be the same level, slightly lower in terms of like how much more you have maximized profitability based on the current nitrogen price deck without all those outages and how we should think about that framework heading into next year?

知道了。只是快速跟進。再一次，只是退後一步。顯然，第一季度，第三季度有一些冬季風暴，所以顯然，颶風是不可避免的。當我展望2025 年和2026 年時，您認為週轉活動是否會處於同一水平，在沒有所有這些停電的情況下，根據當前的氮肥價格，您的盈利能力最大化了多少，以及我們應該如何考慮這一點明年的框架？

Well, I mean, certainly, our hope is that we don't repeat the winter storm freeze off that we had in the first quarter or the hurricane outages that we had in the third quarter. But the operations team tries to manage our turnaround activity to be relatively consistent year on year-on-year. So we're not throw in the system way up and way down, but we're trying to level load it. Now that's not always possible because of the timing of when things come.

好吧，我的意思是，當然，我們希望我們不會重複第一季的冬季風暴凍結或第三季的颶風中斷。但營運團隊試圖將我們的周轉活動管理得與去年同期相對一致。因此，我們不會將系統上下顛倒，而是嘗試對其進行水平加載。但現在這並不總是可能的，因為事情發生的時機不同。

And we do have a couple of larger plants that when they go through turnaround, have a noticeably bigger impact. But I would say we pretty much year in and year out going forward should be producing in the neighborhood of about 10 million tons of ammonia, and then we'll upgrade as much of that as our upgrade system can manage.

我們確實有一些較大的工廠，當它們經歷週轉時，會產生明顯更大的影響。但我想說，未來我們幾乎年復一年應該生產大約 1000 萬噸氨，然後我們將升級我們的升級系統可以管理的盡可能多的氨。

And then the other piece of it to think about as we get into next year is we'll begin generating on an annualized basis, an incremental roughly $100 million of cash through the 45Q tax credit as we start sequestering CO2. So that's on top of the base business. And again, we're pretty excited about what that looks like.

進入明年，我們要考慮的另一件事是，當我們開始封存二氧化碳時，我們將開始按年計算，透過 45 季的稅收抵免增加約 1 億美元的現金。這是基礎業務之上的。再說一遍，我們對它的樣子感到非常興奮。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

史蒂夫伯恩，美國銀行。

Your press release provides this gross margin per nutrient tons for product. It's always very interesting. And the one that just jumps out is your DEF. And I was just curious whether what your view is on the outlook for DEF? And maybe more specifically, this problem that occurs with crystallization and so forth. Is that poor-quality DEF? Is that all DF? Does that affect you? And is there a resolution of that down the road?

您的新聞稿提供了產品每噸營養物的毛利率。這總是很有趣。剛剛跳出來的就是你的 DEF。我只是好奇您對 DEF 的前景有何看法？也許更具體地說，這個問題是因結晶等而發生的。難道DEF品質很差嗎？這就是DF的全部嗎？這對你有影響嗎？未來有解決方案嗎？

Steve, this is Bert. And regarding your question on DEF and the opportunity for CF, we've continued to invest in that business since we acquired Terra in 2010 and it has been an exciting path and growth vehicle for us where we're projecting to be close to 800,000 tons of urea equivalent product that trades at a substantial margin increase over granular urea.

史蒂夫，這是伯特。關於您對 DEF 的問題和 CF 的機會，自 2010 年收購 Terra 以來，我們一直在繼續投資該業務，這對我們來說是一條令人興奮的道路和成長工具，我們預計產量將接近 80 萬噸尿素等價產品的交易利潤比顆粒尿素大幅增加。

So what we've done is when we looked at our platform, we have capacity in several of our plants, Courtright, Yazoo City, Woodward and the substantial capacity in Donaldsonville and which we're augmenting and have added to the system with railcars.

因此，我們所做的是，當我們查看我們的平台時，我們在考特賴特、亞祖城、伍德沃德等幾家工廠都有產能，在唐納森維爾也有大量產能，我們正在通過軌道車擴大並添加到系統中。

So the exciting part about DEF is the dosage rate because when we first acquired this business, it was at a fairly low percentage and what it was cutting out in terms of pollution where today, the projections on dosing rate increases to 5 and even higher than that percent. Just looks at the doubling where we're projecting that the DEF demand just in North America could be in excess of 3 million urea equivalent tons and that's from 0 in 2010. So for us, this is a good platform that works very well into our system and we're going to continue to grow with it. Regarding the crystallization, I'll have Chris answer that.

因此，DEF 令人興奮的部分是劑量率，因為當我們第一次收購這項業務時，它的百分比相當低，並且在污染方面正在削減，而今天，劑量率的預測增加到5，甚至高於那個百分比。只要看看我們預測的翻倍情況，光是北美的 DEF 需求就可能超過 300 萬尿素當量噸，而 2010 年為 0。所以對我們來說，這是一個很好的平台，可以很好地融入我們的系統，我們將繼續與它一起成長。關於結晶，我會讓克里斯來回答。

Yes, Steve, related to that, we -- there's very high specs required for DEF in the product and we haven't experienced any of that. I think the one thing that we've seen is we've always been very diligent about our testing requirements for that. So the issue you bring up, we're not all that familiar with because it hasn't affected any of our product.

是的，史蒂夫，與此相關的是，我們的產品對 DEF 的規格要求非常高，但我們還沒有經歷過這些。我認為我們看到的一件事是我們一直非常努力地滿足我們的測試要求。所以你提出的問題我們不太熟悉，因為它沒有影響我們的任何產品。

Very good. And I'd like to ask a little bit about the Donaldsonville project that you're working with Exxon and with -- do you have any visibility on when they could get a classic injection well? Is that just an unknown?

非常好。我想問一些關於您與埃克森美孚合作的唐納森維爾計畫的問題——您是否知道他們何時可以獲得經典的注入井？這只是一個未知數嗎？

And does that prevent you from essentially lining up customers for this and/or do your customers need to invest on their own site, either for storage or to use it as a fuel. I'm just curious. If something if this moves forward in sometime in 2025, are you going to be in a position where you could start loading a marine ship in other words?

這是否會阻止您為此而實質上為客戶排隊，和/或您的客戶是否需要在自己的網站上進行投資，無論是用於儲存還是將其用作燃料。我只是好奇。如果在 2025 年的某個時候出現這種情況，換句話說，您是否可以開始為海船裝載貨物？

Yes. So we are confident that in 2025 will be one sequestering CO2 and two, receiving the 45Q tax benefit. One of the reasons we chose Exxon as our partner is really just the vast flexibility and alternatives they have, if you recall, their acquisition of the former Denbury pipeline, which is almost 1,000 miles of CO2 pipeline, gives them quite a bit of access to more than a point-to-point storage well, so they could have wells that they have in the queue right now from Louisiana all the way to Texas and all along that route.

是的。因此，我們有信心，到 2025 年，將有 1 家公司封存二氧化碳，2 家公司將獲得 45 季的稅收優惠。我們選擇埃克森美孚作為合作夥伴的原因之一實際上是他們擁有巨大的靈活性和替代方案，如果您還記得的話，他們收購了前登伯里管道（該管道全長近1,000 英里的二氧化碳管道），這使他們能夠獲得相當多的資源不僅僅是點對點的存儲井，因此他們可以擁有現在從路易斯安那州一直到德克薩斯州以及沿該路線的隊列中的井。

So our confidence level still remains very high. As I said, we're doing a lot of work on our side of the fence, and Exxon is actually doing a lot of work in piping on their side of the fence to connect. So our confidence level remains high there. As far as being prepared to load vessels and ship out, whether it be to Europe or Asia, we yes, I expect that to be occurring next year based on what Bert's team decides is the best use for that particular low-carbon product.

因此，我們的信心仍然很高。正如我所說，我們在我們這邊做了很多工作，埃克森美孚實際上也在他們這邊做了大量管道連接工作。因此，我們對此的信心仍然很高。至於準備裝船並運出，無論是運往歐洲還是亞洲，我們是的，我預計這將在明年發生，具體取決於伯特團隊決定的特定低碳產品的最佳用途。

And I would add to that, Steve, that on the systems side, we've spent a lot of time and effort putting in place all of the necessary system and controls and accounting procedures to be able to not only get the credit, but be able to accurately score and certify a carbon intensity on our production. And so that will be kind of among the first tons out there with an actual carbon score associated with that.

我想補充一點，史蒂夫，在系統方面，我們花費了大量的時間和精力來建立所有必要的系統、控制和會計程序，以便不僅能夠獲得信譽，而且能夠能夠準確評分和認證我們生產的碳強度。因此，這將是第一批具有與之相關的實際碳分數的噸位。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about current nitrogen dynamics. There were some comments the other day about warmer weather being an issue for ammonia applications in the US later in the quarter. and some comments that activity today is slow. I don't know if you had any different characterization of the market today.

我想知道您是否可以談談當前的氮動態。前幾天有一些評論稱天氣變暖是本季度晚些時候美國氨應用的一個問題。以及一些評論稱今天的活動緩慢。我不知道您對今天的市場是否有不同的看法。

And when you talk about tighter inventory in North America, is that something we should expect to materialize in higher prices in the spring? Or do you have any different view about how that impacts the market?

當您談論北美庫存緊張時，我們是否應該預期春季價格會上漲？或者您對於這如何影響市場有什麼不同的看法嗎？

So regarding the current dynamics, they're, I would say, constructive. In that when you go around the world, where we are on supply, is, as I mentioned earlier, the absence of Chinese tons available to the market is a 3 million to 5 million-ton pool, which could be up to 10% of global seaborne traded product.

因此，就目前的動態而言，我想說，它們是建設性的。正如我之前提到的，當你環顧我們供應的世界時，中國市場上缺乏的噸數為 300 萬至 500 萬噸，可能高達 10%。

And then you go through different places that have experienced gas issues or high-cost gas issues like in Europe, where we've seen Yara and others take production offline, you have, I would say, an appropriate or a limited supply basis right now.

然後你會經過經歷天然氣問題或高成本天然氣問題的不同地方，例如在歐洲，我們看到 Yara 和其他公司停止生產，我想說，你現在有適當的或有限的供應基礎。

And then when you look at demand with India stepping in for another tender and asking for 1 million tons to be shipped by middle December, and then continued demand in South America and Brazil and Argentina, then you'll roll into Q1 for the Northern Hemisphere, and we believe that the US and Europe are behind.

然後，當你看到印度介入另一次招標並要求在 12 月中旬之前發貨 100 萬噸的需求，以及南美、巴西和阿根廷的持續需求時，那麼你將進入北半球的第一季度，我們認為美國和歐洲落後了。

And so where we are as a company -- I mentioned in my prepared remarks that our inventory is limited. It is. When you look at what has been imported and what has been exported for a net balance and then what we think others lost in production, we think the nitrogen supply and inventories, whether that be with retailers or with producers is limited. And so that sets up a positive environment as we head into application season for the spring.

因此，我們作為一家公司，我在準備好的發言中提到，我們的庫存是有限的。這是。當你看看進口和出口的淨平衡，然後我們認為其他人在生產中損失了什麼時，我們認為氮氣供應和庫存，無論是零售商還是生產商，都是有限的。因此，這為我們進入春季申請季節創造了一個積極的環境。

Now regarding your question about fall application, that is due to start about now, fall application of ammonia. Our ambient temperature and soil temperature around 50 degrees. We're hitting close to that in the northern tier. We've had a very good season in Canada. And that as it moves -- the weather moves south and gets cooler, we'll see those applications pick up.

現在關於您關於秋季施用的問題，那是因為從現在開始，秋季施用氨。我們的環境溫度和土壤溫度在50度左右。我們正在接近北部地區的水平。我們在加拿大度過了一個非常美好的賽季。隨著天氣向南移動並變得涼爽，我們將看到這些應用程式的數量增加。

The commentary about limited or limiting applications possibly has been soil moisture, not necessarily temperature. And so what you need for a healthy ammonia season is appropriate soil moisture for the ammonia to bind in the soil. And that is what we're looking for as these rain patterns sweep across the northern tier and Iowa, then you'll see applications take off.

關於有限或限制性應用的評論可能是土壤濕度，而不一定是溫度。因此，健康的氨季需要的是適當的土壤濕度，以使氨能夠結合在土壤中。這就是我們正在尋找的，因為這些降雨模式席捲了北部地區和愛荷華州，然後您會看到應用程式起飛。

Over the last several years, applications have gone well into December. And if that's the case, our order book, which we believe is in a very good position. And we've positioned product in our terminals. They're ready to go. That will have a good season, probably a better season than last year. And so -- and we have those orders already in the system.

在過去的幾年裡，申請一直到了 12 月才順利進行。如果是這樣的話，我們相信我們的訂單處於非常有利的位置。我們已將產品放置在我們的終端中。他們準備出發了。那將會是一個很好的賽季，可能比去年更好。所以——我們的系統中已經有這些訂單了。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Just a couple of questions. First, a little short term, maybe dovetailing with this last question. Typically, you do more sales in Q4 than in Q3, I think in 5 years in a row of a higher Q4 than Q3. Any reason not to expect that this year?

只是幾個問題。首先，有點短期，也許與最後一個問題相符。通常情況下，第四季的銷售額高於第三季度，我認為連續 5 年第四季的銷售額高於第三季。有什麼理由不期待今年呢？

In terms of how we take orders and then move that to -- those tons through the system and as sales, each year is different. And so the fill programs tend to take place either in late Q2 or early Q3. This year was early Q3.

就我們如何接受訂單然後將其通過系統轉移到銷售量而言，每年都是不同的。因此，填補計劃往往會在第二季末或第三季初進行。今年是第三季初期。

We built our order book and then continue to take additional orders on top of that fill program. So today, our order book, as I said in my prepared remarks, is healthy through Q4, and we're going to start taking Q1 orders shortly based on our price expectations. And so regarding whether it's bigger or smaller Q4, Q3, we don't look at it that way. We look at what we've got, our production rates, our allocations to tons and we move the tons out in an orderly fashion.

我們建立了訂單簿，然後在該填充計劃的基礎上繼續接受更多訂單。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，今天我們的訂單簿在第四季度保持健康，我們將根據我們的價格預期很快開始接受第一季的訂單。因此，關於第四季、第三季是更大還是更小，我們不會這樣看待。我們查看我們所擁有的、我們的生產率、我們對噸的分配，然後我們以有序的方式將噸轉移出去。

And then on the greenfield blue ammonia project that you're expecting the feed study done by the end of the year, any color you can give, maybe higher level, what you need to still to get this approved with your partners, capital running $3 billion or $4 billion, do you think that's still reasonable? Anything sort of pick up incremental in the last couple of months, to give us an idea of what we could expect early next year in some of your decision-making processes?

然後，在綠地藍氨項目上，您預計飼料研究將在今年年底完成，您可以提供任何顏色，也許更高的水平，您仍然需要什麼才能獲得合作夥伴的批准，資本運行 3 美元十億或四十億美元，你認為這仍然合理嗎？在過去的幾個月裡，是否有任何進展，讓我們了解明年初在你們的一些決策過程中我們可以期待什麼？

Yes. I mean I think the number in the neighborhood of $4 billion all in is an approximate number. We're finalizing the FEED study, and that should narrowed the range a little bit to kind of a plus/minus 10% range. But I think as the numbers are kind of rolling up with a bit more uncertainty ranging $4 billion is where we think it's going to come in.

是的。我的意思是，我認為 40 億美元左右的數字只是一個近似數字。我們正在最終確定 FEED 研究，這應該會將範圍稍微縮小到正負 10% 的範圍。但我認為，隨著數字的不斷增加，不確定性會增加一些，我們認為 40 億美元是我們認為會進入的地方。

And at that kind of number, we do think that that it is a project that makes sense, particularly given what Chris was saying about longer-term the projected growth of nitrogen demand even in traditional applications exceeds what the new capacity brought online is.

對於這樣的數字，我們確實認為這是一個有意義的項目，特別是考慮到克里斯所說的長期預測的氮需求增長，即使在傳統應用中也超過了新的在線產能。

And that's before you get into some of the capacity shutdowns. So we're expecting to continue to happen in Europe and some other places. And the partners that we're having conversations with I think are similarly comfortable being able to invest in a project in that kind of range and look at a return profile that is favorable. So for us to get there. We need to finish up the FEED study.

那是在一些產能關閉之前。因此，我們預計歐洲和其他一些地方會繼續發生這種情況。我認為，我們正在與之交談的合作夥伴同樣樂於能夠投資這種範圍的項目，並看到有利的回報情況。所以我們要到達那裡。我們需要完成 FEED 研究。

We need to try to get the partnership agreements and all of the ongoing governance and everything kind of put together and then it's going to be a decision for the board ultimately to make. But we're targeting kind of middle first quarter of next year to be in a position to make that decision.

我們需要嘗試將合作協議和所有正在進行的治理以及所有事情放在一起，然後這將是董事會最終做出的決定。但我們的目標是明年第一季中期才能做出決定。

Yes. The only thing I would add to that, Joel, this is Chris, is that as we look at our partnership selection, you had brought that up in part of the question. We actually have a lot of benefits related to that. We have our Japanese equity counterparts that we're in discussions with.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，喬爾，這是克里斯，當我們考慮我們的合作夥伴選擇時，你在問題的一部分中提出了這一點。實際上我們有很多與此相關的好處。我們正在與日本股票同業進行討論。

But as Tony mentioned, recently, even more industrial primarily due to some of the energy issues going on, primarily in Europe, are also stepping in to understand the project dynamics. And in all cases, sort of the capital number or range that Tony is putting out there, they all seem ready to move forward with the project as well on those type of capital parameters.

但正如托尼所提到的，最近，由於一些能源問題（主要是在歐洲）的工業化，也開始介入了解專案動態。在所有情況下，無論是托尼提出的資本數字或範圍，他們似乎都準備好在這些類型的資本參數上推進該項目。

Tony, if I could just fit one more in on that. I may have missed totally misunderstood that. But are you suggesting that the economics of the plant around $4 billion might be justifiable even if some of the clean ammonia math and benefits weren't there? I may have misunderstood that, if that's what you're trying to get at.

東尼，如果我能再加入一個就好了。我可能完全誤解了這一點。但您是否認為，即使不存在一些清潔氨的計算和效益，該工廠約 40 億美元的經濟效益也可能是合理的？如果這就是你想要表達的意思，我可能誤解了這一點。

Yes. I mean I think the way that we're looking at it, Chris, is -- Joel, I'm sorry, is that with the average sale price in the neighborhood of 450 a metric ton along with the 45Q benefit that we would expect to be able to generate. That should earn a reasonable rate of return on the kind of investment that we're looking at making here.

是的。我的意思是，克里斯，我認為我們看待這個問題的方式是——喬爾，對不起，平均售價約為每噸 450 美元，以及我們預期的 45 季度收益才能產生。這應該會為我們在這裡尋求的投資帶來合理的回報率。

And we believe -- I mean, if you look at the market today, it's well above that. Now is it does move around. And when you see a new plant come on like Gulf Coast ammonia or whatever, there is going to be some lumpiness and some volatility.

我們相信——我的意思是，如果你看看今天的市場，你會發現它遠高於這個水平。現在它確實在移動。當你看到像墨西哥灣沿岸合成氨或其他什麼的新工廠投產時，就會出現一些塊狀和一些波動。

But as we project forward, we expect a tightening in the S&D balance even in traditional applications. And we think the market is going to support that kind of a price. And so even before you get to new applications for clean ammonia, there's an argument to be made that, that plant is justifiable. I think if we are successful in bringing on a couple of the potential partners that we are deeply in discussions with that want to take some of that production into brand-new applications, it even justifies it further. So again, we're very optimistic about the return profile of what this plant looks like.

但隨著我們的預測，我們預計即使在傳統應用中，S&D 平衡也會收緊。我們認為市場將支持這樣的價格。因此，即使在清潔氨的新應用之前，也有人認為該工廠是合理的。我認為，如果我們成功地吸引了一些我們正在深入討論的潛在合作夥伴，希望將其中一些產品應用到全新的應用中，這甚至會進一步證明這一點是合理的。再說一次，我們對這家工廠的回報狀況非常樂觀。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

理查德·加奇托雷納，富國銀行。

First question on the nitrogen market outlook. You pointed out Chinese urea exports basically now expected less than 1 million tonnes this year. What do you think is going on there in terms of how the China government is thinking? Is this something that may be extended indefinitely and that supports your comments on the much more tighter outlook going forward? Maybe that's the first question.

第一個問題關於氮肥市場前景。您指出，目前預計今年中國尿素出口量基本上不會超過100萬噸。您認為中國政府的想法如何？這是否可以無限期延長並支持您對未來更加嚴格的前景的評論？也許這是第一個問題。

When you look at China over the last 20-, 25 years, we've seen many different Chinas in terms of being the world's largest importer of urea in the '90s to entering the export market in the early 2000s to overwhelming the world market with almost 14 million tons of exportable tons in 2015, '16 to slowly ramping that down to 9 to 7 to 5 to 3 to 2, and now eliminated, it's been a surprise and something is not easy to predict because as many things are happening in China. Some of those are opaque or governmental decisions.

當你觀察過去20、25年的中國時，我們看到了許多不同的中國：從90年代成為全球最大的尿素進口國到2000年代初期進入出口市場，再到以壓倒性優勢壓倒世界市場。 ，可出口噸數接近1400 萬噸，從16 年開始慢慢下降到9 比7 比5 比3 比2，現在已經被淘汰，這令人驚訝，而且有些事情不容易預測，因為很多事情正在發生中國。其中一些是不透明的或政府決定。

Today, the expectation is, at least from the investor community has been the next quarter, they're coming the next quarter, they're coming. Well, they haven't. And I think part of that's a reflection of what's going on in China. You're seeing growth in demand. Today, it looks like demand for industrial and ag applications are close to 60 million tons, that's 6-0. That's a gigantic consumer of urea and most of that is produced using coal or imported -- domestic coal or imported coal.

今天，至少投資者界的預期是下個季度，他們會在下個季度到來。嗯，他們沒有。我認為這在某種程度上反映了中國正在發生的事情。您會看到需求的成長。如今，工業和農業應用的需求量接近 6000 萬噸，即 6-0。這是尿素的龐大消費國，其中大部分是使用煤炭或進口煤炭或進口煤炭生產的。

So I think for the Chinese government, they want to keep that product available for their consumers, their farmers to make the food that they want to make and make that at a reasonable cost. To me, that's a rational decision-making process, when you're exporting for almost 0 value to the -- or at least to China and subsidizing the world with cheap urea.

因此，我認為對於中國政府來說，他們希望為消費者和農民提供該產品，以生產他們想要生產的食品，並以合理的成本生產。對我來說，這是一個理性的決策過程，當你以幾乎為零的價值向——或者至少向中國出口，並用廉價尿素補貼世界時。

And so another parallel path on this has been the exported tons of ammonium sulfate out of China that have grown substantially from several million tons to, I think, close to 16 million, 17 million tons, a lot of that going to Brazil and secondary markets. That's a lot of nitrogen that's still going out of China.

因此，另一個平行路徑是中國出口的硫酸銨噸數已從數百萬噸大幅增長到我認為接近 1600 萬、1700 萬噸，其中許多流向巴西和二級市場。中國仍有大量的氮被排出。

And so I think it's -- the market is seeming to project that they'll be able to export tons in 2025. That remains to be seen, and we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

所以我認為市場似乎預計他們將能夠在 2025 年出口數噸。這還有待觀察，當我們到達時我們就會跨過那座橋。

Great. And then as a follow-up, just on the clean energy projects, I was just curious, as you work through the FEED study and you look at the environment right now, what's your view in terms of the announced proposed capacity that's supposed to be coming out from various different companies and start-ups. The proposed capacity is supposed to be out there for clean ammonia. What do you think is the likelihood that maybe half that comes online in the quarter? Sorry, any high-level views on that?

偉大的。然後作為後續行動，就清潔能源項目而言，我只是很好奇，當您進行 FEED 研究並查看現在的環境時，您對已宣布的擬議產能有何看法來自各種不同的公司和新創公司。擬議的產能應該用於生產清潔氨。您認為本季上線的可能性有多大？抱歉，對此有什麼高層看法嗎？

Yes. I think as we look at those announcements, you have to look at them and assess probabilities related to them. So it was -- 2 years ago, we ran all the projects that had been announced globally that were low carbon. And there was over 107 projects, of which we thought maybe less than 10 would actually be built.

是的。我認為，當我們查看這些公告時，您必須查看它們並評估與它們相關的機率。兩年前，我們運行了全球宣布的所有低碳項目。項目數量超過 107 個，我們認為實際建成的項目可能不到 10 個。

I would say, out of that list, I would say it's probably even fewer than that going forward. So those projects -- the nice thing about our industry is you have pretty good visibility into new projects starting, given the engineering firms that have worked on them.

我想說的是，在這個清單中，我會說它可能比未來的還要少。所以這些專案——我們這個行業的好處是，考慮到參與這些專案的工程公司，你可以很好地了解新專案的啟動情況。

And then also the time line to build 1 is 4 to 4.5 years. So that also provides you an understanding of what happens with the S&D balances that develops. And really, what we're seeing between now and when we would have a new project come online is there is a limited net ammonia production that's coming online. You're seeing here in the US, you have the Gulf Coast ammonia that Bert mentioned, which is not a low carbon, but you have the Woodside OCI plant, which we're expecting early '26.

建造 1 號的時間線是 4 到 4.5 年。因此，這也可以讓您了解所形成的 S&D 餘額會發生什麼情況。實際上，從現在到新項目上線，我們所看到的是，上線的氨淨產量有限。你在美國看到伯特提到的墨西哥灣沿岸氨工廠，這不是低碳工廠，但你有伍德賽德 OCI 工廠，我們預計將於 26 年初建成。

And then outside of that, it's really not until 2028 where Qatar has a project that's announced. So a long way to say, we don't believe that the true projects that are moving forward is really building that supply side. And that's why Tony talks about, as we see longer term a tightening in the S&D market just under traditional application let alone if we add in any type of clean energy demand to that.

除此之外，卡達直到 2028 年才宣布了一個項目。總而言之，我們不相信正在推進的真正專案真正是在建立供應方。這就是為什麼托尼談論的原因，因為從長遠來看，傳統應用下的 S&D 市場將趨緊，更不用說如果我們添加任何類型的清潔能源需求。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本‧瑟雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

Congrats on another very strong quarter. Just a quick follow-up. As you think about the ammonia segment and the strength that you had in the quarter, which kind of was a little bit of a surprise on the volume side, I think at least versus ours and consensus estimate. So how do you think about just segment itself, like not the fervor process, but the ammonia piece and the demand for that as you go into the fourth quarter.

祝賀又一個非常強勁的季度。只是快速跟進。當您考慮氨細分市場和本季的實力時，我認為至少與我們的預期和共識估計相比，在銷售方面有點令人驚訝。那麼，當您進入第四季度時，您如何考慮細分本身，而不是熱情過程，而是氨部分及其需求。

And maybe a little bit related to Joel's question, just like the revenue piece that then translates into 4Q and as you move into it. How much volume, can you actually produce and sell as ammonia now that you have Vagamon?

也許與喬爾的問題有點相關，就像收入部分，然後轉化為第四季度，當你進入它時。有了 Vagamon，您實際上可以生產並銷售多少量的氨？

Well, I would compare our products, ammonia, urea, UAN, DEF, ammonium nitrate. We love all our children. And so ammonia is 1 of those segments. And I got to give a shout out to the ammonia team of Amanda and Bob and Chello that have done a great job in the rest of the sales team this year.

嗯，我會比較我們的產品，氨、尿素、UAN、DEF、硝酸銨。我們愛我們所有的孩子。因此氨就是其中之一。我必須向阿曼達、鮑勃和切羅組成的氨團隊表示敬意，他們今年在銷售團隊的其他成員中表現出色。

The interesting thing about CF, and I think this is one of the undervalued aspects of our company is the flexibility we have in our production locations, the flexibility we have with our modes, which is truck, rail, pipe, barge vessel and then our distribution system.

CF 的有趣之處在於，我認為這是我們公司被低估的方面之一，那就是我們生產地點的靈活性，我們模式的靈活性，即卡車、鐵路、管道、駁船，然後是我們的模式。分配系統。

And so it's by leveraging all those points, then you could become agnostic on the product and focused on the margin and what product creates the most margin at that time, because our team is rewarded on the company's performance, we move tons freely between the segments. And if that segment -- one segment is profiting more than the other and that's what you saw in ammonia with good demand globally. So we've been a fairly large exporter of tons out of Donaldsonville.

因此，透過利用所有這些點，您可以對產品變得不可知論，而專注於利潤以及當時什麼產品創造最大利潤，因為我們的團隊根據公司的業績獲得獎勵，我們在各個細分市場之間自由流動。如果該細分市場—一個細分市場的利潤高於另一個細分市場，這就是您在全球需求旺盛的氨中所看到的情況。因此，我們一直是唐納森維爾相當大的噸出口商。

And then that creates, again, optionality for the rest of the team. So our volume I think it's the exported ton, that's the incremental increase. And then as we go into Q4, that is the ammonia application season and weather permitting, our volume will be higher than Q3. And we have a substantial book already built and those values are in the publications. We're well within those ranges.

然後，這再次為團隊的其他成員創造了選擇權。所以我們的數量我認為是出口噸數，這是增量。然後，當我們進入第四季時，即氨施用季節，如果天氣允許，我們的用量將高於第三季。我們已經寫了一本內容豐富的書，這些價值觀都在出版物中。我們完全在這些範圍內。

And I think this year could be a fairly big year for fall ammonia because it's a very good agronomic product for a corn farmer in these dense organic soils of the Midwest. So I think the ammonia position for CF is solid and how much can be -- how much product can we put in that segment. It's -- traditionally, it's been around 4 million tons, but it could be 3.5 million to 4 million tons in any given year.

我認為今年對於秋季氨來說可能是相當重要的一年，因為對於中西部這些緻密的有機土壤中的玉米種植者來說，它是一種非常好的農藝產品。因此，我認為 CF 的氨地位是穩固的，我們可以在該領域投入多少產品。傳統上，其產量約為 400 萬噸，但任何一年都可能達到 350 萬噸至 400 萬噸。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

安德魯‧黃（Andrew Wong），加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

So today, if we look at Europe generally as the marginal cost producer, but we're also seeing some changes in that region. There's capacity that's maybe shutting down and that could reduce how much to contribute to that cost curve, but there's also C-band that gets implemented in 2026, which raises our cost position. So I'm just kind of curious how you think about Europe as that marginal cost producer as you kind of go forward and look out a couple of years from now?

因此，今天，如果我們總體上將歐洲視為邊際成本生產國，但我們也看到該地區發生了一些變化。有些產能可能會關閉，這可能會減少對成本曲線的貢獻，但還有將於 2026 年實施的 C 頻段，這會提高我們的成本狀況。所以我有點好奇，當你展望未來幾年時，你如何看待歐洲作為邊際成本生產國？

So Andrew, as we've talked about before, this past summer, we did a pretty in-depth analysis of what's happening in Europe because we're seeing it much the way you described it that given the cost of energy and the differential, which now sits at $10 and really goes there through 2026, that it's going to be very difficult for European producers who are not integrated to continue to produce ammonia.

所以安德魯，正如我們之前談到的，去年夏天，我們對歐洲發生的事情進行了相當深入的分析，因為考慮到能源成本和差異，我們看到的情況與您所描述的方式非常相似，目前價格為10 美元，並且到2026 年才會真正達到這個水平，對於沒有整合的歐洲生產商來說，繼續生產氨將非常困難。

And you saw that last week with one of our peers shutting down in ammonia plant just to do upgrade very similar to what we did with our UK ammonia plants. So we expect that to continue. And by 2030, we would see that there'd probably be another 3 million to 4 million nutrient tons of imports required into Europe. Now some of that will take the form of upgraded products. Some of it will be just gross ammonia that's going over there for upgrades through their terminaling system into those products.

您上週看到，我們的一家同行關閉了氨廠，只是為了升級，這與我們對英國氨廠所做的非常相似。所以我們預計這種情況會持續下去。到 2030 年，我們將看到歐洲可能還需要進口 300 萬至 400 萬營養噸。現在其中一些將採取升級產品的形式。其中一些只是總氨，透過他們的終端系統升級為這些產品。

So we see that specifically with our low carbon because with the CBAM, as you mentioned, if we have a low-carbon product and we're competing against conventional, the conventional cost is going to be higher, and that will provide us a margin advantage as the CBAM goes into effect at the end of next year.

所以我們特別看到我們的低碳，因為對於 CBAM，正如你所提到的，如果我們有低碳產品並且我們與傳統產品競爭，傳統成本將會更高，這將為我們提供利潤CBAM 將於明年底生效，這將帶來優勢。

And really, by 2034, where there's no free allowances offered anymore, you could see that differential between someone who has an ATR that's sequestering 95% in conventional be something that could be $150 per metric ton benefit.

實際上，到 2034 年，不再提供免費配額時，您可以看到，擁有 ATR 的人之間的差異可能是每噸 150 美元的收益，而 ATR 的 ATR 佔傳統的 95%。

So it's a really sort of look, although we don't bring -- build that into our modeling, it is something that provides, as Tony talked about us being a fast mover and having that carbon arbitrage opportunity as we see Europe begin to contract some on production.

因此，這確實是一種外觀，儘管我們沒有將其構建到我們的模型中，但它提供了一些東西，正如托尼談到我們是一個快速發展者，並且當我們看到歐洲開始收縮時，我們擁有碳套利機會一些在生產上。

Okay. That's really helpful in Europe. And then I guess -- and that kind of brings in another question on just how does that global cost look like 3- or 4 years from now with the changes in Europe, Chinese exports, impacts from clean ammonia given how the S&D looks like? Like how does that change? Because we've seen different changes in the past decade or so, like how does that look like 3 or 4 years from now?

好的。這對歐洲確實很有幫助。然後我想──這又帶來了另一個問題：考慮到特殊與差別待遇的情況，隨著歐洲的變化、中國的出口、清潔氨的影響，三、四年後的全球成本會是什麼樣子？比如這會發生什麼變化？因為我們在過去十年左右的時間裡看到了不同的變化，例如三、四年後會是什麼樣子？

Well, if price doesn't bid in that higher cost production and there's new demand coming on, you'll see probably a lowering of the cost curve to some extent. And that's really why when we look at our particular project, we wanted to be integrated because we think having the lowest OpEx related to some of these projects where you're buying hydrogen over the fence and then upgrading it later puts you in the third or fourth quartile of production.

好吧，如果價格不適合更高成本的生產，並且出現新的需求，您可能會看到成本曲線在某種程度上下降。這就是為什麼當我們考慮我們的特定項目時，我們希望進行整合，因為我們認為與其中一些項目相關的運營支出最低，在這些項目中，您越過圍欄購買氫氣，然後升級它，從而使您處於第三或產量的第四個四分位數。

So you're no different than a European producer. But we do see that demand growth. So you're going to continue to need to see new supply come on, and we do not believe that new supply meets demand. So some of these high-cost assets that you may think are going away are probably going to remain online until we have some sort of balance between us.

所以你和歐洲製片人沒有什麼不同。但我們確實看到需求成長。因此，您將繼續需要看到新的供應出現，但我們不認為新的供應能滿足需求。因此，您可能認為即將消失的一些高成本資產可能會保持在線狀態，直到我們之間達到某種平衡。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Tony, I just wanted to follow up with you on the prospective blue ammonia facility and just get your latest thoughts in terms of what you're seeking in terms of terms. I recall you want to own at least 50% of it. But is anything changing in terms of how many partners you want to bring in both in terms of the amount of equity they would want to provide or do you have more of a willingness now maybe to fund it yourself, but just have offtake for a very large percentage of the plant?

東尼，我只是想跟進您有關未來藍氨設施的情況，並了解您對所尋求的條件的最新想法。我記得你想擁有至少 50% 的股份。但是，您希望引入多少合作夥伴以及他們希望提供的股權數量方面是否有任何變化，或者您現在是否更願意自己出資，但只是承購非常多的資金？

Or is there anything evolving in sort of your own thought process or what the other -- what the counterparties are interested in doing?

或者你自己的思考過程有什麼變化，或者對方有興趣做什麼？

Yes. I would say, in general, we have more interest than probably a percentage of equity to go out. And initially, we were focused on or structured an agreement around 52% equity. I could see a scenario that would have us take less than 50% total equity based on the desires of a couple of the partners we're talking to.

是的。我想說的是，總的來說，我們的興趣可能比股權的比例還要多。最初，我們專注於或圍繞 52% 的股權制定了一項協議。根據我們正在交談的幾個合作夥伴的願望，我可以預見到一種情況，我們將獲得不到 50% 的總股權。

We would want operating control and voting control in that kind of joint venture scenario, but it's entirely possible that we would end up kind of at or below 50% of the total equity. I wouldn't want to go too much lower than that because we are putting our organizational expertise and effort to really take on the design and the build and the construction and then the ongoing operation of the plant.

在這種合資企業場景中，我們希望獲得營運控制權和投票控制權，但我們完全有可能最終獲得總股本的 50% 或以下。我不想比這個低太多，因為我們正在利用我們的組織專業知識和努力來真正承擔設計和建造以及工廠的持續運作。

So we want there to be enough kind of participation in a project like that to make it worth our while to put all that time and effort into it. But I think from a standpoint of having strong partners that want the offtake that bring good expertise and capital into the project and reduce our risk profile, we're really optimistic about this project and what it looks like going forward.

因此，我們希望有足夠的人參與這樣的項目，讓我們值得投入所有的時間和精力。但我認為，從擁有強大合作夥伴的角度來看，他們希望承購能為專案帶來良好的專業知識和資本並降低我們的風險狀況，我們對這個專案及其未來的前景非常樂觀。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, how are you thinking about Henry Hub prices, not near much the next 12 months, but if you look out 12, 24, 36 months, you got all this LNG coming in the US. We've got electricity increasing demand-wise from data centers and everything else. Any thoughts there?

好的。作為後續行動，您如何看待亨利中心的價格，未來 12 個月的價格不會太高，但如果您展望 12、24、36 個月，您會發現所有這些液化天然氣都將運往美國。我們從資料中心和其他地方獲得的電力需求不斷增加。有什麼想法嗎？

When you look at the spreads or actual the strip, you're well into 2026 and you're still at $3. And so the differential to the world, not necessarily the Henry Hub price because if the Henry Hub goes to $6, but the spread goes to10 or 5 continues in the $10 to $15 range, that just makes those other producers that are having to use imported LNG that much more expensive.

當您查看價差或實際價格時，您會發現，到了 2026 年，您的價格仍然為 3 美元。因此，與世界的差異，不一定是亨利中心的價格，因為如果亨利中心的價格達到6 美元，但價差達到10 或5 美元，並且繼續在10 至15 美元的範圍內，這只會使那些不得不使用進口產品的其他生產商液化天然氣要貴得多。

And so when you look around the world where gas is, where gas is available and how that gas is going to move, the United States plays a substantial role in that. And we've demonstrated we as a country that when it was going from 70 to 90 to 100 to 105 Bcf per day of production that there's additional capacity out there to grow as the LNG demand grows.

因此，當你環顧世界各地的天然氣所在、哪裡可以獲得天然氣以及天然氣將如何運輸時，你會發現美國在這方面發揮著重要作用。作為一個國家，我們已經證明，當每天的產量從 70 到 90、100 到 105 Bcf 時，隨著液化天然氣需求的增長，還有額外的產能可以成長。

Yes, LNG is going to go from let's say, 14, 15, 16 Bcf a day up into the 20s. But we anticipate that supply to be there as well.

是的，液化天然氣將從每天 14 Bcf、15 Bcf、16 Bcf 上升到每天 20 Bcf。但我們預計供應也會存在。

And the cost structure today to tap those wells into bring that production online is still very attractive. And so yes, I think energy demand, you're seeing that spread apart are spread across, whether it's renewable or now bringing nuclear back. So it's going to be something interesting to watch, I think, more as we get later in the decade.

如今，利用這些油井實現線上生產的成本結構仍然非常有吸引力。所以，是的，我認為能源需求，你會看到，無論是再生能源還是現在恢復核能，能源需求都是分散的。因此，我認為，隨著我們在本世紀後期的發展，這將是一件值得關注的事情。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

When you think about the Donaldsonville dehydration and compression unit, and the 45Q credits that you might get in '25, is your base case that the credits would come from enhanced oil recovery?

當您考慮唐納森維爾脫水和壓縮裝置以及您可能在 25 年獲得的 45Q 積分時，您的基本情況是這些積分將來自於提高石油採收率嗎？

So our agreement with Exxon is for CCS. So it is not for enhanced oil recovery. So it's for a Class 6 permit in which it would be sequestered and we had received the $8 per metric ton tax grant related to that. And as I said earlier, we still feel confident that next year will be sequestering in Class 6 permits given the flexibility and really the alternatives that Exxon has across both Louisiana and Texas with different sequestration permits that are in process right now, both with the State of Louisiana, but also with the EPA and the federal government.

因此，我們與埃克森美孚的協議是針對 CCS 的。所以它不是為了提高石油採收率。因此，這是一個 6 級許可證，它將被扣押，我們已經收到了與此相關的每噸 8 美元的稅收補助。正如我之前所說，我們仍然有信心明年將扣押6 級許可證，因為埃克森美孚在路易斯安那州和德克薩斯州擁有不同的扣押許可證，目前正在與該州進行不同的扣押許可，因此具有靈活性和真正的替代方案路易斯安那州，也與美國環保署和聯邦政府合作。

So I don't think Exxon Mobil has completed any permit filings in Louisiana just yet. So why are you -- and in Texas, you need EPA approval. And this is just for the permits itself. I mean there have been no Class 6 permits that have even been issued. Are you really so confident that you can achieve this in 2025, I would say, on the OR area?

因此，我認為埃克森美孚尚未在路易斯安那州完成任何許可證申請。那你為什麼要這麼做——在德州，你需要 EPA 的批准。這僅適用於許可證本身。我的意思是，甚至還沒有頒發過 6 級許可證。我想說，您真的有信心在 2025 年在 OR 領域實現這一目標嗎？

Yes. So what I would say is, Jeff, is, as you point out, there is -- in Texas, it is federal, and they do have sequestration wells that they have permits put in place for Texas as well. And that's really where the optionality of that almost 1,000-mile CO2 pipeline that Denbury they acquired from Denbury allows them to work different paths and different alternatives to get there. All our discussions with Exxon suggests that they will have Class 6 permitting. So that's what I'm basing it on.

是的。所以我想說的是，傑夫，正如你所指出的，在德克薩斯州，它是聯邦的，他們確實有封存井，他們也為德克薩斯州頒發了許可證。這確實是他們從 Denbury 購買的近 1,000 英里二氧化碳管道的可選性，使他們能夠採用不同的路徑和不同的替代方案來到達那裡。我們與埃克森美孚的所有討論都表明他們將獲得 6 級許可。這就是我的基礎。

Okay. And when you contemplate the building of a new blue ammonia facility, and you look at an ATR versus an SMR with flu gas capture. Are those very different costs? Like is there a, I don't know, a $1 billion difference between doing one or doing the other? Or is it much smaller?

好的。當您考慮建造新的藍色氨設施時，您會比較 ATR 與具有流感氣體捕獲功能的 SMR。這些費用有很大不同嗎？我不知道，做其中一項或做另一項之間是否存在 10 億美元的差異？或者它小得多？

It's much smaller by the time you add on potential flue gas capture. I think what you'd end up seeing is numbers of would kind of be in the approximate range of each other. I think 1 of the big differences that you end up with is more tonnage of production coming out of an ATR in general than the SMR. The largest one plant in the world is Donaldsonville number six.

當您添加潛在的煙氣捕獲時，它會小得多。我認為你最終會看到的是彼此的數字大致在範圍內。我認為最終的最大區別之一是 ATR 的生產噸位通常比 SMR 更高。世界上最大的工廠是唐納森維爾第六工廠。

And even though it's nameplate is the same size as a number of other plants that are out there, we're getting about 10% or a little over 10% additional production above nameplate. And so that is currently the largest plant in the world and the ATR would be quite a bit larger than that plant even.

儘管它的銘牌與許多其他工廠的尺寸相同，但我們的產量比銘牌高出約 10% 或略高於 10%。因此，這是目前世界上最大的工廠，ATR 甚至會比該工廠大得多。

And so one of the benefits is of the ATR is compared to the SMR with flue gas is on a comparable capital basis, you get more tonnage of production and all those incremental tons are really at variable cost. And so the return profile looks really attractive against those incremental tons. So that's kind of the direction that we're targeting.

因此，ATR 的好處之一是與帶有煙氣的 SMR 相比，在可比較的資本基礎上，您可以獲得更多的生產噸位，並且所有這些增量噸位實際上都是可變成本。因此，相對於這些增量，回報率看起來確實很有吸引力。這就是我們的目標方向。

The other part I would add, Jeff, is based on that incremental tons, which could be 10% higher than our ammonia 6 is. You're now also capturing probably about 50% more CO2 than you would on a comparable conventional SMR and you'd be obtaining the 45Q, whether it be through the Class 6 or in EOR, you would have a benefit that would be significant over what a traditional SMR plant would be.

Jeff，我要補充的另一部分是基於增量噸數，可能比我們的氨 6 高 10%。您現在還捕獲的二氧化碳可能比使用類似的傳統 SMR 多大約 50%，並且您將獲得 45Q，無論是通過 6 級還是 EOR，您都會獲得比傳統 SMR 顯著的優勢傳統的SMR 工廠是什麼樣的？

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

艾德蘭·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

Yes, sorry about that. Tony, a quick one for you. Can you talk about changes if any, you see informers or retailers' behavior given the more challenging applies we have now? And how has that changed go-to market behavior has changed accordingly?

是的，對此感到抱歉。東尼，給你一個快速的。您能否談談考慮到我們現在面臨的更具挑戰性的應用，您看到告密者或零售商的行為是否有變化？那麼，這種變化的市場行為是如何隨之改變的呢？

Yes. I'll give a real quick high-level answer, and I'll hand it over to Bert to give some additional color. But in general, because nitrogen is a nondiscretionary nutrient, we've seen strong demand for our product globally even though crop prices are a little more muted today than they were a year ago or 2 years ago. I think generally, where you see farmer behavior looking to be different in an evolving crop price marketplace has to do with some of the other inputs.

是的。我將給出一個真正快速的高級答案，然後將其交給伯特來提供一些額外的顏色。但總的來說，由於氮是一種非自由裁量的營養素，我們看到全球對我們產品的強勁需求，儘管今天的農作物價格比一年前或兩年前要低一些。我認為一般來說，在不斷變化的農作物價格市場中，農民的行為看起來有所不同，這與其他一些投入有關。

So whether it's P&K that you might cut back on a little bit or you end up going with a generic seed and chemicals as opposed to some of the ones that are still on patent, et cetera, you see the reduction in cost in other places, but nitrogen really doesn't provide an option for farmers to reduce otherwise, you see a direct year one impact on yield. And so that's why we continue to see very strong demand for our product.

因此，無論是 P&K，您可能會稍微減少一點，還是最終使用通用種子和化學品，而不是一些仍在專利中的化學品，等等，您會看到其他地方的成本降低，但氮確實沒有為農民提供減少的選擇，否則，你會看到第一年​​對產量的直接影響。這就是為什麼我們繼續看到對我們產品的強勁需求。

Yes, I agree with Tony. And some of the interesting things that are going on in the farm community, and we're very well connected with our customers. We don't sell to farmers, but the co-ops that we work with Growmark, CHS, Wind Field and some of the others as well as our public companies and private companies, Simplot and ADM and people like that. We have a lot of conversations. And I think one of the issues is that it needs to be managed on the farmer side is debt and cash management.

是的，我同意托尼的觀點。農場社區正在發生一些有趣的事情，我們與客戶保持著良好的聯繫。我們不賣給農民，而是賣給我們與 Growmark、CHS、Wind Field 等其他一些公司合作的合作社，以及我們的上市公司和私人公司、Simplot 和 ADM 等人。我們有很多談話。我認為問題之一是農民方面需要管理的是債務和現金管理。

And so you're seeing delayed purchases, delayed purchases and positioning for the spring. And I think one of the things like Tony talked about all the ancillary issues of products that are used for planting and growing a crop, it's land values as well. So we're going to have to watch that over time.

因此，你會看到延遲的購買、延遲的購買和春季的定位。我認為托尼談到的其中一件事涉及用於種植和種植農作物的產品的所有輔助問題，以及土地價值。所以我們必須隨著時間的推移觀察這一點。

But for us, it's -- we focus on what we can control, and that's lowering our costs, keeping our costs attractive as related to the market in terms of our production mix, running the plants very well and efficient. And utilizing the export capabilities that we have. So we're a global participant. We're active in Brazil, Argentina, Australia and Europe, and that gives us insight into global farming practices and needs.

但對我們來說，我們專注於我們可以控制的事情，這就是降低我們的成本，在我們的生產組合方面保持我們的成本對市場的吸引力，使工廠運作得非常好和高效。並利用我們擁有的出口能力。所以我們是全球參與者。我們活躍在巴西、阿根廷、澳洲和歐洲，這使我們能夠深入了解全球農業實踐和需求。

And then we manage our book. We always have a healthy book on. And the management of the pricing that's available to us, so we're capturing a good value and the gas team and keeping our gas costs low, which have been -- they've done a very good job.

然後我們管理我們的書。我們總是有一本健康的書。以及我們可用的定價管理，因此我們正在獲得良好的價值和天然氣團隊並保持較低的天然氣成本，他們做得非常好。

So in conjunction with our insight in the market, our relationships in the market, our capabilities that we are able to leverage, we're positioned very well. And I think the farmer with some of the droughts that are going on in Brazil, and some of the demand and low prices tend to help demand increase, the pricing will recover, hopefully in the forward market.

因此，結合我們對市場的洞察力、我們在市場中的關係以及我們能夠利用的能力，我們的定位非常好。我認為巴西正在發生一些乾旱，一些需求和低價往往有助於需求增加，價格將會恢復，希望在遠期市場上。

Okay. That makes sense. And a related question. As we exit 2024 and enter in 2025, again, it seems like the way you talk about the outlook for Nate, that's very encouraging. Is there anything that concerns you at all like anything that makes you think keeps you wait?

好的。這是有道理的。還有一個相關的問題。當我們退出 2024 年並進入 2025 年時，您談論 Nate 前景的方式似乎非常令人鼓舞。有沒有什麼事情讓你感到擔憂，例如讓你覺得讓你等待的事情？

I sleep very well, but there are things in this market that I do think about, and I'm always looking over the horizon on I think there are issues with currencies on what countries are devaluing their currency in order to participate. I think some of the things that are coming out of China with export policies, industrial policies have ramifications into the commodity markets.

我睡得很好，但我確實在考慮這個市場中的一些事情，而且我總是在展望未來，我認為貨幣存在問題，即哪些國家為了參與而使貨幣貶值。我認為中國的一些出口政策、產業政策會對大宗商品市場產生影響。

I think some of the concerns with Europe and gas were a participant or a producer in the UK. And so we're following that market. We have good customers and what their long-term opportunities are or challenges.

我認為對歐洲和天然氣的一些擔憂是英國的參與者或生產商。所以我們正在關注這個市場。我們擁有優質客戶，以及他們的長期機會或挑戰是什麼。

And then it's geopolitics or the geopolitical environment that we're currently in with what's going on in the Middle East, what's going on in Ukraine these have impacts on real people and real decisions on not just how people eat, but how they live and then how do we play in that world. So yes, there are concerns. I think we always have to be mindful of those things in the energy markets and how we run our business.

然後是地緣政治或我們目前所處的地緣政治環境，中東正在發生的事情，烏克蘭正在發生的事情，這些都對真實的人們和真正的決定產生影響，不僅影響人們如何飲食，也影響他們的生活方式，然後我們如何在那個世界玩耍。所以，是的，存在擔憂。我認為我們始終必須留意能源市場中的這些事情以及我們如何經營我們的業務。

Dmitry Silverstein, Water Tower Research.

德米特里·西爾弗斯坦，水塔研究。

Most of them have been answered, but I do want to follow up on the more near-term outlook for pricing. We've seen price comping down year-over-year in the first half of the year and then you reported a price increase here in the third quarter. How do you look at -- given the market dynamics and the tightness in the market that you identified and talk about what do you expect for pricing as you get into the 2025 negotiating season?

大多數問題已經得到解答，但我確實想跟進更近期的定價前景。我們看到今年上半年的價格年減，然後你們報告了第三季的價格上漲。考慮到您確定的市場動態和市場緊張程度，您如何看待並談論進入 2025 年談判季節時您對定價的期望？

Well, a lot of the things that drive pricing drive -- it's supply and demand, it's energy spreads it's again, some of the issues I just articulated. We did have some weakness going into Q1 and then coming out of Q2 where pricing for urea, for example, fell NOLA to $290 and then recover to $230, $235 -- or excuse me, $330, $335 and we're currently trading around $320.

嗯，推動定價的因素有很多——供給和需求、能源價差，這也是我剛才闡述的一些問題。我們確實在進入第一季和第二季後出現了一些疲軟，例如，尿素價格從NOLA 跌至290 美元，然後恢復至230 美元、235 美元——或者對不起，是330 美元、335 美元，我們目前的交易價格約為320 美元。

And so the trends in pricing were reflective of the lack of Chinese availability, the lack of North Africans, principally Egypt, and then some other gas constrained areas. And we see that positive environment continuing into Q2 because of those dynamics are not going away. And so we have these episodic moments of movements of pricing, but the trend, we believe, through at least the first half of 2025 is positive.

因此，定價趨勢反映了中國供應量的缺乏、北非（主要是埃及）以及其他一些天然氣受限地區的缺乏。我們看到積極的環境持續到第二季​​度，因為這些動態不會消失。因此，我們會出現這些偶發的定價變動時刻，但我們相信，至少到 2025 年上半年的趨勢是正面的。

That's helpful. And then one final question. You mentioned the modest hurricane impact from Francine. I'm hoping that nothing else was impacted us as far as your operation is concerned with the -- I'm sorry, with the East Coast strike.

這很有幫助。然後是最後一個問題。您提到弗朗辛颶風造成的影響不大。我希望就你們的行動而言，我們沒有受到任何其他影響——對不起，東海岸罷工。

Anything we should be thinking about in terms of cost deltas going forward as far as logistics cost, the barge traffic in the Mississippi is still kind of slow because of the low water levels after a couple of years of drought. Anything that we should be keeping in mind as we look towards 2025 on your gross margin line?

就物流成本而言，我們應該考慮未來的成本增量，由於幾年乾旱後水位較低，密西西比河的駁船運輸仍然有點緩慢。當我們展望 2025 年的毛利率時，我們該記住什麼？

Yes. So what I would say is a lot of those we were able to mitigate those issues that you mentioned with the port strike and then also the hurricane without really much financial costs related to that. I think just in general, with any type of logistics movement, what we're seeing is just the inflationary effects, both from barge prices or whether it be rail. So that, I would say, is the one area we continue to monitor and look at alternatives.

是的。所以我想說的是，我們能夠緩解您提到的港口罷工和颶風帶來的問題，而無需付出太多的財務成本。我認為總的來說，對於任何類型的物流運動，我們看到的只是通膨效應，無論是駁船價格還是鐵路價格。因此，我想說，這是我們繼續監控並尋找替代方案的領域。

The one thing that we have flexibility that differentiates us from other companies is our ability, specifically out of Donaldsonville to move product through 5 different modes, whether it be vessel, barge, truck, rail or pipe. And that gives us a lot of flexibility to go to alternative transport methods. So I would say it's just Bert's team and the supply chain doing a little bit more thought provoking just to keep cost down versus what we're seeing inflation-wise.

我們擁有的靈活性使我們與其他公司區分開來，那就是我們有能力，特別是從唐納森維爾透過 5 種不同的方式運輸產品，無論是船舶、駁船、卡車、鐵路還是管道。這為我們提供了很大的靈活性來選擇替代運輸方式。所以我想說，這只是伯特的團隊和供應鏈做了更多發人深省的事情，只是為了降低成本，而不是我們所看到的通貨膨脹。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions for today. I would like to turn the call back to Martin Jarosick for closing remarks.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的提問時間就到此為止。我想將電話轉回給馬丁·賈羅西克（Martin Jarosick），讓其致閉幕詞。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us. We look forward to seeing you at the upcoming conferences.

謝謝大家加入我們。我們期待在即將召開的會議上見到您。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。