CF工業控股 (CF) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CF Industries' Full Year and Fourth Quarter of 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 CF Industries 2023 年全年和第四季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the presentation over to the host for today, Mr. Martin Jarosick with CF Investor Relations. Sir, please proceed.

現在我想將演講交給今天的主持人 CF 投資者關係部門的 Martin Jarosick 先生。先生，請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Tony Will, CEO; Chris Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Bert Frost, Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain.

早安，感謝您參加 CF Industries 的財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有執行長 Tony Will； Chris Bohn，執行副總裁兼營運長；銷售、市場開發和供應鏈執行副總裁 Bert Frost。

CF Industries reported its results for the full year and fourth quarter of 2023 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook and then host a question-and-answer session. Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.

CF Industries 昨天下午公佈了 2023 年全年和第四季度業績。在這次電話會議上，我們將審查結果，討論我們的前景，然後主持問答會議。本次電話會議和我們網站上的簡報中所作的非歷史事實的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述不是對未來業績的保證，並且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。

Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you'll find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website.

因此，實際結果可能與任何聲明中明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。此外，您還可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿和簡報中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 衡量標準之間的調整表。

Now let me introduce Tony Will, our President and CEO.

現在讓我介紹一下我們的總裁兼執行長托尼威爾。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted financial results for the full year 2023, in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.8 billion. Net cash from operations was also $2.8 billion, and free cash flow was $1.8 billion. These results reflect a healthy nitrogen supply-demand balance and global energy spreads that favor our low-cost production base in North America.

謝謝馬丁，大家早安。昨天下午，我們發布了 2023 年全年財務業績，其中調整後 EBITDA 約為 28 億美元。營運淨現金也為 28 億美元，自由現金流為 18 億美元。這些結果反映了健康的氮供需平衡和全球能源價差，有利於我們在北美的低成本生產基地。

They also represent outstanding execution by the CF Industries team. We work safely, ran our plants well and navigated dynamic industry conditions. Our investments in people, safety and reliability have built the industry's highest-performing manufacturing network, as you can see on Slide 6. Looking ahead, over the next 4 years, confirmed construction of new nitrogen production capacity is not sufficient to keep pace with the historical nitrogen demand growth rate of roughly 1.5% per year in traditional applications.

他們也代表了 CF Industries 團隊的出色執行力。我們安全工作、良好運作工廠並應對動態的產業環境。正如您在投影片6 中看到的那樣，我們在人員、安全性和可靠性方面的投資已經建立了業界性能最高的製造網絡。展望未來，在未來4 年內，已確認的新氮氣產能建設不足以跟上傳統應用中氮需求的歷史成長率約為每年 1.5%。

Adding to this tight supply-demand situation is the risk that existing ammonia production capacity in several important regions remains on the verge of permanent closure due to constrained availability and cost of natural gas. Meanwhile, emerging demand for low-carbon ammonia into clean energy applications should further tighten the already strained global supply-demand balance.

雪上加霜的是，由於天然氣供應和成本有限，幾個重要地區現有的合成氨產能仍處於永久關閉的邊緣。同時，清潔能源應用對低碳氨的新興需求應會進一步收緊本已緊張的全球供需平衡。

As a result, we are confident that our cash generation will remain strong, as underscored by the recent increase in our quarterly dividend and continued share repurchases. We look to continue to invest in high-return organic and inorganic projects to grow our cash generation. As such, we continue evaluating a new low-carbon ammonia production plant at our Blue Point Complex in Louisiana with our partner, Mitsui. Our company share a belief that North America is the best location for production of low-carbon ammonia given natural gas cost advantages and access to CCS sites and expertise.

因此，我們有信心我們的現金產生能力將保持強勁，最近我們季度股息的增加和持續的股票回購證明了這一點。我們希望繼續投資高回報的有機和無機項目，以增加我們的現金產生能力。因此，我們繼續與合作夥伴三井公司一起評估位於路易斯安那州藍點綜合體的新低碳氨生產廠。我們公司堅信，鑑於天然氣成本優勢以及 CCS 場地和專業知識，北美是生產低碳氨的最佳地點。

As you can see on Slide 8, the economic value of North American nitrogen assets continues to increase over time, supporting returns greater than the cost of capital and new projects. We and Mitsui are targeting a final investment decision in the second half of 2024, when we have additional information on low-carbon ammonia production technologies and better clarity on customer requirements for carbon intensity levels along with regulatory developments.

正如您在投影片 8 中看到的那樣，北美氮資產的經濟價值隨著時間的推移持續增加，支持的回報高於資本和新項目的成本。我們和三井物產的目標是在 2024 年下半年做出最終投資決定，屆時我們將獲得有關低碳氨生產技術的更多信息，並更清楚地了解客戶對碳強度水平的要求以及監管的發展。

While taking a disciplined approach to growth, we will continue to return capital through our dividends and share repurchases. We have approximately $2.6 billion remaining on our current share repurchase authorization and fully expect to complete it before its expiration at the end of 2025.

在採取嚴格的成長方式的同時，我們將繼續透過股利和股票回購來回報資本。我們目前的股票回購授權還剩約 26 億美元，完全預計在 2025 年底到期前完成。

With that, let me turn it over to Bert, who will discuss the global nitrogen market conditions in more detail. Bert?

接下來，讓我將其交給伯特，他將更詳細地討論全球氮肥市場狀況。伯特？

Thanks, Tony. The fourth quarter of 2023 was an active period for our team. Highlighted by the largest fall ammonia application season in North America in years. A strong fall application season indicates a commitment to nitrogen consuming crops on these acres and robust demand for additional urea and UAN applications through the first half of 2024.

謝謝，托尼。 2023年第四季是我們團隊的活躍期。北美多年來最大的秋季氨施用季節凸顯了這一點。強勁的秋季施用季節表明，這些土地上將致力於種植耗氮作物，並且到 2024 年上半年，對額外尿素和尿素氮施用的強勁需求。

This, along with strong ag fundamentals, supports our outlook for a positive spring application season. We expect 91 million acres of corn to be planted in the United States. As we continue to work with customers in advance of spring applications, we believe supply is more constrained in the North American nitrogen channel than industry expectations.

這加上強勁的農業基本面，支持了我們對春季申請季的積極前景。我們預計美國將種植 9,100 萬英畝玉米。隨著我們在春季應用之前繼續與客戶合作，我們相信北美氮氣管道的供應比行業預期更加受限。

Inventories were below average entering the year and net imports of nitrogen to the region are not making up the difference. The cold snap we experienced in North America during January has exacerbated this situation. We believe that there has been significant volume of domestic nitrogen production lost due to weather-related shutdowns across the region supply base. We estimate that CF Industries lost approximately 150,000 tons of ammonia production in January from our own network due to the weather.

進入今年的庫存低於平均水平，該地區的氮淨進口量並不能彌補這一差異。一月份北美經歷的寒流加劇了這種情況。我們認為，由於該地區供應基地因天氣而關閉，國內氮產量大量損失。我們估計，由於天氣原因，CF Industries 1 月從我們自己的網路中損失了約 15 萬噸氨產量。

Unexpected supply tightness often leads to follow-on logistics challenges and early spring would further strain the supply chain. We believe that our in-region production and extensive logistics and distribution capabilities will serve us well in this environment. Global grain stocks-to-use ratios have returned to normal levels after two robust growing seasons.

意外的供應緊張往往會導致後續的物流挑戰，而早春將進一步加劇供應鏈的壓力。我們相信，我們的區域內生產以及廣泛的物流和分銷能力將在這種環境下為我們提供良好的服務。經過兩個強勁的生長季節後，全球糧食庫存與使用比率已恢復至正常水準。

However, we do not project a significant impact on global nitrogen demand given the imperative to feed growing populations. We expect continued supply constraints in key producing regions. Most notably, ammonia production and economics in Europe remain challenging. Global ammonia spot prices continue to align with the full cost of European ammonia production, confirming Europe as the industry's marginal producer.

然而，考慮到養活不斷增長的人口的必要性，我們預計不會對全球氮需求產生重大影響。我們預計主要產區的供應將持續受到限制。最值得注意的是，歐洲的氨生產和經濟仍然充滿挑戰。全球氨現貨價格持續與歐洲氨生產的全部成本保持一致，證實歐洲是該產業的邊際生產國。

This continues to support elevated imports of nitrogen products into Europe compared to a decade ago. Beyond Europe, natural gas availability continues to affect ammonia and UAN production in Trinidad. And based on its actions in the fourth quarter of 2023, we believe the Chinese government will limit exports through the first half to ensure supply availability and urea price stability for the Chinese domestic market.

與十年前相比，這繼續支持歐洲氮產品進口量的增加。在歐洲以外，天然氣供應持續影響特立尼達的氨和尿素生產。根據2023年第四季的行動，我們認為中國政府將在上半年限制出口，以確保中國國內市場的供應和尿素價格穩定。

Looking ahead, forward energy curve suggests continued favorable energy spreads between low cost in North American production and high-cost production in Europe and Asia. We believe this will support sustained margin opportunities for our low-cost manufacturing asset base.

展望未來，遠期能源曲線顯示北美生產的低成本與歐洲和亞洲的高成本生產之間持續有利的能源價差。我們相信這將為我們的低成本製造資產基礎提供持續的利潤機會。

With that, let me turn the call over to Chris.

現在，讓我把電話轉給克里斯。

Thanks, Bert. For the full year 2023, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.5 billion or $7.80 per diluted share. EBITDA was $2.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA was approximately $2.8 billion.

謝謝，伯特。 2023 年全年，該公司報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤約為 15 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 7.80 美元。 EBITDA 為 27 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 28 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, we completed the acquisition of Incitec Pivot's Waggaman ammonia production facility. After adjustments and accounting for the value assigned to a long-term supply agreement with IPL's Dyno Nobel subsidiary, our cash purchase price was approximately $1.2 billion. The Waggaman facility has operated as expected since closing and has generated margin commensurate with our existing ammonia segment.

第四季度，我們完成了對 Incitec Pivot 的 Waggaman 氨生產設施的收購。經過調整並考慮與 IPL 的 Dyno Nobel 子公司簽訂的長期供應協議的價值後，我們的現金購買價格約為 12 億美元。瓦格曼工廠自關閉以來一直按預期運營，並產生了與我們現有氨部門相稱的利潤率。

Looking ahead to 2024, we expect capital expenditures for the year to be in the range of $550 million and for gross ammonia production to be near 10 million tons. As Bert said, we experienced unplanned weather-related outages in our network during January. During these outages, we pulled forward some planned maintenance activities. This should reduce scheduled downtime later this year, mitigating some of the production loss in January.

展望2024年，我們預計全年資本支出將在5.5億美元左右，氨總產量將接近1,000萬噸。正如伯特所說，一月份我們的網路經歷了與天氣相關的意外中斷。在這些中斷期間，我們推遲了一些計劃的維護活動。這應該會減少今年稍後的計劃停機時間，從而減輕一月份的部分生產損失。

As a result, we expect gross ammonia production for the year to be near our projection. Commissioning of our green ammonia project at Donaldsonville is underway. We are currently evaluating the purchase of renewable energy credits to pair with the start-up of the electrolyzer to enable green ammonia production and maximize the value of the 45V production tax credit. We expect that the CO2 dehydration and compression unit at Donaldsonville will be ready for start-up in 2025. This will enable low-carbon ammonia production and generate substantial 45Q tax credits. We are also making progress on other CCS opportunities with returns above our cost of capital.

因此，我們預計今年氨總產量將接近我們的預測。我們在唐納森維爾的綠色氨計畫正在進行調試。我們目前正在評估購買再生能源信貸，以配合電解槽的啟動，以實現綠色氨生產並最大限度地提高 45V 生產稅收抵免的價值。我們預計唐納森維爾的二氧化碳脫水和壓縮裝置將於 2025 年啟動。這將實現低碳氨生產並產生大量 45Q 稅收抵免。我們也在其他 CCS 機會上取得了進展，回報高於我們的資本成本。

Turning to the potential new low-carbon ammonia plant at our Blue Point Complex in Louisiana, we completed our FEED study on a conventional steam methane reformer ammonia plant with CCS technologies. The FEED study estimates the cost of the pneumonia plant at approximately $2.5 billion, we estimate another $500 million for scalable infrastructure, such as storage tanks and loading docks. Our FEED studies focused on autothermal reforming or ATR ammonia production technology and flue gas capture are progressing well. Alongside disciplined clean energy investments, we are committed to returning capital to long-term shareholders.

談到位於路易斯安那州 Blue Point Complex 的潛在新型低碳氨廠，我們完成了採用 CCS 技術的傳統蒸汽甲烷重整器氨廠的 FEED 研究。 FEED 研究估計肺炎工廠的成本約為 25 億美元，我們估計另外 5 億美元用於可擴展的基礎設施，例如儲罐和裝卸碼頭。我們的 FEED 研究重點是自熱重整或 ATR 氨生產技術和煙氣捕集，進展順利。除了嚴格的清潔能源投資外，我們還致力於向長期股東返還資本。

In 2023, we returned almost $900 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividend payments despite being locked out of the repurchases for part of the year. We expect share repurchase activity to increase over the 2 remaining years on our current authorization. As you can see on Slide 7 and 8, on both are free cash flow yield and a precedent transaction basis, our enterprise value is significantly undervalued, supporting continued share repurchases.

2023 年，我們透過股票回購和股利支付向股東返還了近 9 億美元，儘管該年部分時間無法參與回購。我們預計，在我們目前授權的剩餘兩年內，股票回購活動將會增加。正如您在投影片 7 和 8 中看到的那樣，在自由現金流收益率和先例交易基礎上，我們的企業價值被嚴重低估，支持持續的股票回購。

With that, Tony will provide some closing remarks before we open the call to Q&A.

在我們開始問答之前，托尼將發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Chris. Before we move on to your questions, I want to thank everyone at CF Industries for their contributions to an outstanding year. I especially want to highlight the progress our team made in the second half of the year regarding our safety performance.

謝謝，克里斯。在我們繼續回答您的問題之前，我要感謝 CF Industries 的每個人為這一出色的一年所做的貢獻。我特別想強調我們的團隊在下半年在安全績效上的進展。

After a challenging start to 2023, we ended the year with a 12-month recordable incident rate of 0.36 incidents per 200,000 work hours in line with our performance in recent years and significantly better than industry averages. Our operational excellence and significant structural advantages underpin our cash generation. This enables us to invest in the business to further increase cash generation and drive increased shareholder participation in our free cash flow.

在經歷了 2023 年充滿挑戰的開局之後，我們在 2023 年結束時的 12 個月可記錄事故率為每 200,000 工時 0.36 起事故，這與我們近年來的表現一致，並且明顯優於行業平均水平。我們卓越的營運和顯著的結構優勢支撐著我們的現金生成。這使我們能夠投資該業務，以進一步增加現金產生，並推動股東更多地參與我們的自由現金流。

In the last 3 years, we acquired the Waggaman ammonia production facility. Advanced high-return clean energy initiatives, increased our dividend by 67% and deployed $2.5 billion to repurchase more than 31 million shares which represented approximately 15% of the outstanding share count at that time. Additionally, we have strengthened our balance sheet to provide us tremendous flexibility as we are able to grow our business at the same time as return significant cash to shareholders. This approach has had a dramatic impact.

在過去 3 年中，我們收購了 Waggaman 氨生產設施。推動高回報清潔能源計劃，將股息增加 67%，並投入 25 億美元回購超過 3,100 萬股股票，約佔當時已發行股票數量的 15%。此外，我們還加強了資產負債表，為我們提供了巨大的靈活性，因為我們能夠在發展業務的同時向股東返還大量現金。這種方法產生了巨大的影響。

As you can see on Slide 10, shareholder participation in our business has increased 80% in the last 10 years. We're excited about the opportunity ahead of us to build on this track record. In the near term, we expect industry fundamentals to remain favorable to our low-cost production network. Longer term, disciplined investments in low-carbon ammonia production can provide a robust growth platform for the company. Taken together, we expect to continue creating substantial value for long-term shareholders. With that, operator, we will now open the call to your questions.

正如您在投影片 10 中看到的那樣，在過去 10 年中，股東對我們業務的參與度增加了 80%。我們很高興能有機會在這項業績基礎上再接再厲。短期內，我們預期產業基本面仍將有利於我們的低成本生產網路。從長遠來看，對低碳氨生產的嚴格投資可以為公司提供強勁的成長平台。總而言之，我們期望繼續為長期股東創造巨大價值。接線員，我們現在將開始電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

Good morning, everyone. So Tony, I guess the first question is we think about the decision to pursue additional FEED studies on the Blue Point Complex evaluating the different technologies. Just help us frame the increment on carbon reduction that could come from either ATR or the flue gas capture? And maybe any additional color on the policy drivers of your potential offtakers as they evaluate what threshold is needed to commit to taking the blue ammonia volumes longer term?

大家，早安。所以東尼，我想第一個問題是我們考慮決定對藍點綜合體進行額外的 FEED 研究，評估不同的技術。請幫助我們確定 ATR 或煙氣捕獲可能帶來的碳減排增量？也許你的潛在承購商的政策驅動因素有任何額外的顏色，因為他們評估承諾長期使用藍氨量需要什麼閾值？

Yes, Adam. So one of the reasons that we're evaluating all the different kind of possible paths forward is to really have a comprehensive set of solutions depending upon the carbon intensity levels that are ultimately demanded by customers. And conventional CCS, the way that we've implemented it in Donaldsonville today allows for the process CO2 to be stripped out and sequestered, and that means you can reduce the carbon intensity by about almost 70% versus kind of conventional ammonia, particularly given the plant that we're talking about having implemented that on is among one of the most efficient newest plants in the world.

是的，亞當。因此，我們評估所有不同類型的可能前進路徑的原因之一是根據客戶最終要求的碳強度水平真正擁有一套全面的解決方案。而傳統的 CCS，我們今天在唐納森維爾實施的方式可以去除並封存工藝過程中的二氧化碳，這意味著與傳統氨相比，您可以將碳強度降低約 70%，特別是考慮到我們正在談論的實施該技術的工廠是世界上最高效的最新工廠之一。

So it already is a fairly low footprint relative to older plants. If you look at doing flue gas capture in conjunction with processed gas CCS we think we can get rid of in excess of 95% of the CO2 emissions coming out of that particular plant. If you look at autothermal reforming, the estimates are you can get to the 90% to 95% reduction level. But the problem with that is because of the way that the technology works, you have to have a very, very large air separation unit to introduce the nitrogen back into the process that you don't get when you're -- because you're not doing steam methane reforming.

因此，相對於老工廠來說，它的佔地面積已經相當低了。如果您考慮將煙氣捕獲與加工氣體 CCS 結合起來，我們認為我們可以消除該特定工廠超過 95% 的二氧化碳排放量。如果考慮自熱重整，估計可以達到 90% 到 95% 的還原水準。但問題在於該技術的工作方式，你必須有一個非常非常大的空氣分離裝置將氮氣引入到你無法獲得的過程中，因為你'我們不進行蒸汽甲烷重整。

And the electricity draw on a large AirSep unit like that is a tremendous adder to cost of the project as well as op cost. And based on the grids where we're thinking about, the Scope 2 emissions become substantial. So that means you've got to do a bunch of things in order to potentially limit the emissions of Scope 2 that you'd otherwise pick up in order to get to the 90% or 95% reduction levels. And that brings with it all of its own set of costs and OpEx, CapEx. So that's really why we're looking at kind of all of these different possible paths to give us kind of the full suite of optionality and really understand OpEx, CapEx costs in order to hit certain thresholds that the customers may ultimately demand in terms of the product.

像這樣的大型 AirSep 裝置所消耗的電力大大增加了專案成本和營運成本。根據我們正在考慮的電網，範圍 2 的排放量變得很大。因此，這意味著您必須採取一系列措施來潛在地限制範圍 2 的排放量，否則您將獲得這些排放量，從而達到 90% 或 95% 的減排水準。這帶來了它自己的所有成本和營運支出、資本支出。因此，這就是為什麼我們正在尋找所有這些不同的可能路徑，為我們提供全套的可選性，並真正了解營運支出、資本支出成本，以便達到客戶最終可能要求的某些門檻產品。

But the other point is we have a very large network longer term that we are focused on getting to carbon neutrality in the next 25 years. And so flue gas capture is going to play an important role in that process as we continue to move forward. And so us kind of getting more heavily involved in that and really understanding the different potential paths is an important thing for us longer term strategically anyway. And this is a good time for us to really kind of dive in as we're contemplating making an investment decision in new production.

但另一點是，我們擁有一個非常龐大的長期網絡，我們的重點是在未來 25 年內實現碳中和。因此，隨著我們繼續前進，煙氣捕獲將在這過程中發揮重要作用。因此，我們更多地參與其中並真正了解不同的潛在路徑對於我們的長期策略來說是一件重要的事情。現在是我們真正投入的好時機，因為我們正在考慮對新產品做出投資決定。

All right. That's all very helpful. And if I could just squeeze a quick market question just on natural gas. As you think about the decline recently in TTF and LNG prices broadly, it doesn't seem like you expect quick restart of idled or high-cost European production? Just how are you thinking about that over the course of the year?

好的。這一切都非常有幫助。如果我能快速回答一下有關天然氣的市場問題。當您考慮最近 TTF 和液化天然氣價格的普遍下跌時，您似乎不認為閒置或高成本的歐洲生產會迅速重啟？一年來你是如何看待這個問題的？

Yes, Adam, this is Bert. When you look at the spreads, what's going on in the world with Henry Hub trading today at $1.60, $1.65 and NBP and TTF in Europe, trading in the, let's say, $7 to $8 range and so you have a pretty big spread. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, where we are in the ammonia supply chain, you're bidding close to that full cost range for European and some high-cost Asian producers especially when you consider carbon costs.

是的，亞當，這是伯特。當你查看點差時，你會發現世界上發生了什麼，亨利港(Henry Hub) 今天的交易價格為1.60 美元、1.65 美元，歐洲的NBP 和TTF 交易價格在7 美元到8 美元的範圍內，所以你的點差相當大。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，我們在氨供應鏈中的位置，您的出價接近歐洲和一些高成本亞洲生產商的全部成本範圍，特別是當您考慮碳成本時。

And so the competitiveness, we're still in our position of the European producer is the marginal producer, and that will set the cost floor or the price floor. And we don't see in the short term an improvement in gas supply taking place to lower that value.

因此，就競爭力而言，我們仍然處於歐洲生產商的地位，即邊際生產商，這將設定成本下限或價格下限。我們認為短期內天然氣供應不會改善以降低該數值。

Yes. And I would just add to that, that the decision goes beyond just the cash cost immediately goes into the idea of cycling these plants is not necessarily good, additional maintenance that may be needed prior to starting those back up or turnarounds that are coming forward or even holding inventory at certain periods of time that have a working capital cost to them. So I think gas is obviously the primary driver, but there's a lot of other ancillary drivers that go into factor and whether you restart.

是的。我想補充一點，這個決定不僅僅是現金成本，立即考慮循環這些工廠的想法不一定是好的，在開始那些備份或週轉之前可能需要額外的維護或什至在某些時期持有庫存，這會對他們產生營運資金成本。所以我認為天然氣顯然是主要驅動因素，但還有很多其他輔助驅動因素會影響你是否重新啟動。

Overall, I think, though, the message you're hearing from us is we're very -- we're very optimistic about what the S&D balance looks like and what the demand for our products are on a global basis. It gives Bert a lot of optionality to think about exports and satisfying in-market demand here. And we just have a lot of roads to help get us there.

不過，總的來說，我認為您從我們這裡聽到的信息是，我們對特殊與差別待遇的情況以及全球範圍內對我們產品的需求非常樂觀。它為伯特提供了許多選擇來考慮出口和滿足這裡的市場需求。我們有很多道路可以幫助我們到達那裡。

The next question is from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)。

A couple of questions. I noticed in your slide deck, your new updated sensitivity table, right, that shows EBITDA for every level of gas price and urea price, it's down in every single cell by $300 million at the same gas price and the same U.S. gas price in the same urea price versus what you had in the fall. Can you explain what's going -- and it's that higher volume now? You're I think 1 million tons higher volume. Can you explain the drop in EBITDA at every single cell?

有幾個問題。我注意到在你的幻燈片中，你新更新的敏感度表（右）顯示了每個級別的汽油價格和尿素價格的EBITDA，在相同的汽油價格和相同的美國汽油價格下，每個單元格都下降了3 億美元。尿素價格與秋季相同。你能解釋一下發生了什麼事嗎——現在成交量這麼大？我認為你的產量高出 100 萬噸。您能解釋一下每個單元 EBITDA 的下降嗎？

Yes. Let's start off with the volume issue first because I think that's an important one to kind of get on the table, and then we'll go through kind of the table in a little more detail. But although we did add the Waggaman facility into the network, there is a maintenance turnaround event on that facility, and there's also a couple of significant maintenance activities.

是的。讓我們先從數量問題開始，因為我認為這是一個重要的問題，然後我們將更詳細地討論該表。但是，儘管我們確實將瓦加曼設施添加到網路中，但該設施有一個維護週轉事件，並且還有一些重要的維護活動。

One of them is on table number 6, which is our -- the largest operating ammonia plant in the world. And so when you've got a 40-day outage on a plant like that, that takes our production down. Now that said, as Chris and Bert talked about, we still expect to generate about circa 10 million tons of ammonia this year, which is in line with what we've historically done. The big issue in terms of last year versus this year was we had -- we entered into last year with a fairly high inventory level.

其中之一位於 6 號表，這是我們世界上最大的營運氨廠。因此，當這樣的工廠停電 40 天時，我們的產量就會下降。儘管如此，正如 Chris 和 Bert 所說，我們仍然預計今年將生產約 1,000 萬噸氨，這與我們歷史上的做法相符。與去年相比，最大的問題是我們去年的庫存水準相當高。

So we had pretty substantial additional sales volumes last year based on inventory drawdown that we're not able to tap into. So our volumes kind of year-on-year are going to be order of magnitude fairly similar last year to this year.

因此，去年我們由於庫存減少而獲得了相當可觀的額外銷量，但我們無法利用這一點。因此，我們去年的銷售量與今年的年銷售數量級相當相似。

Yes. And additionally, Joel, I think the big -- one of the bigger aspects of it is the relationship between the products on a pricing basis was updated to what 2023 was. So we always use the prior year as sort of the structure benchmark from that compared to 2022.

是的。此外，喬爾，我認為最重要的方面之一是產品之間在定價基礎上的關係已更新為 2023 年的情況。因此，我們總是使用前一年作為與 2022 年相比的結構基準。

So you saw more parity between the products than maybe what was a premium for UAN prior to that. And obviously, we do quite a bit of UAN volume. So this is just based on not only the cost structure of 2023, which we saw higher non-gas costs, primarily through logistics but then also that new relationship that we experienced over the last 12 months on pricing.

因此，您會看到產品之間的平價性可能比 UAN 之前的溢價要高。顯然，我們做了相當多的 UAN 量。因此，這不僅基於 2023 年的成本結構（我們看到主要透過物流實現的非天然氣成本更高），還基於我們在過去 12 個月中在定價方面經歷的新關係。

Okay. So my follow-up will be kind of 2-parter because first, I just want to follow up on that. So I guess you're saying at the same gas price and same urea price, excuse me, UAN and ammonia prices are lower at the same urea and gas price?

好的。所以我的後續行動將由兩個部分組成，因為首先，我只想跟進這一點。所以我猜你是說在相同的天然氣價格和相同的尿素價格下，請問，在相同的尿素和天然氣價格下，尿素和氨的價格較低？

And then my true follow-up question would be, when looking at the blue, the greenfield blue project, blue ammonia Project. Obviously, we saw a very good valuation comp with coke and the weaver plant a couple of months ago that you obviously didn't buy, would it not make sense for you to just buy back stock as much as you can, just attack at authorization, don't do any greenfield plants because the market's not giving you the valuation, and the coke is obviously giving to Weaver. I know it's not exactly 1-to-1, but isn't just makes sense just buy back stock as much as you can?

然後我真正的後續問題是，當看到藍色時，綠地藍色項目、藍色氨項目。顯然，幾個月前我們看到了焦炭和織布廠的估值非常好，但您顯然沒有購買，您盡可能多地回購股票，只是在授權時發起攻擊，這難道沒有意義嗎？ ，不要建造任何綠地工廠，因為市場沒有給你估值，而焦炭顯然給了韋弗。我知道這並不完全是一對一，但盡可能回購股票不是有意義嗎？

Yes. Let me take the first one first, and then I'll come back to your second point. The first one, not really being a full-on question, more of a statement. So every year, we try to update the table based on what the relationship was in terms of margin per nutrient ton of the previous year. And so the table will naturally evolve up and down and sideways and whatnot based on previous year. It doesn't mean that this is precise because if UAN starts on a -- nutrient basis starts trading at a premium to urea then the numbers are going to go up in every cell because of the volume of UAN that we sell.

是的。讓我先說第一點，然後我再回到第二點。第一個問題並不是一個完整的問題，更多的是一個陳述。因此，每年，我們都會嘗試根據前一年每噸營養物利潤之間的關係來更新表格。因此，桌子會自然地根據上一年度的情況上下左右變化等等。這並不意味著這是精確的，因為如果 UAN 以營養物質為基礎開始以高於尿素的價格進行交易，那麼由於我們銷售的 UAN 量，每個單元中的數字都會上升。

So this is illustrative as opposed to a point estimate. But your general comment of the relative premium of UAN versus urea dropped last year compared to where it was the year before is the right kind of takeaway, and that's the basis and underlying the sensitivity table.

因此，這只是說明性的，而不是點估計。但是，您對去年尿素相對於尿素的相對溢價下降的總體評論是正確的，這就是敏感度表的基礎和基礎。

On the second question, we think that the price paid for Weaver is a fair but a full price for that asset. And our view is that at any point in time where we have made decisions to expand our network. Someone could have made exactly the same argument that you just made, which is it's cheaper to buy back shares than it is to add capacity. Therefore, you should never add back or add capacity. That would have been true.

關於第二個問題，我們認為為 Weaver 支付的價格是該資產的公平但完整的價格。我們的觀點是，在我們做出擴大網路的決定的任何時間點。有人可能會提出與您剛才提出的完全相同的論點，即回購股票比增加產能更便宜。因此，您絕對不應該添加回或添加容量。那是真的。

Back in 2010 when we bought Terra that would have been true. When we acquired the Medicine Hat slice that we didn't know and that would have been true. When we did the expansion projects at Donaldsonville and Port Neal or even probably the Waggaman asset that was just acquired.

早在 2010 年，當我們購買 Terra 時，這就是事實。當我們獲得梅迪辛哈特切片時，我們並不知道那是真的。當我們在唐納森維爾和尼爾港進行擴建項目時，甚至可能是剛收購的瓦加曼資產時。

At every stage, we have been able to invest capital and earn a rate of return well above our cost of capital. So that's a value-adding transaction, whereas buying shares back at market price by definition, is sort of NPV 0. Our view is if you look at the aggregate amount of cash that we generate and shareholder participation, sort of the ratio of the number of shares outstanding.

在每個階段，我們都能夠進行資本投資並獲得遠高於資本成本的報酬率。因此，這是一項增值交易，而根據定義，以市場價格回購股票，則NPV 為0。我們的觀點是，如果你看看我們產生的現金總量和股東參與度，則可以得出數字比例已發行股票數量。

Our shareholders have been much better off based on the combined approach that we've taken to both disciplined add capacity and also take shares out of the marketplace. And that has created a lot of value relative to an exclusive pathway of one versus the other. And so we're going to continue to evaluate the attractiveness of adding capacity on a basis of can we generate returns on a risk-adjusted basis above our cost of capital because generating more cash flow simply allows larger share repurchases in the future and it's not necessarily a point in time comparison about where we're trading in that moment because as you well know, these assets go 40, 50, 60 years in length.

基於我們採取的既嚴格增加產能又將股票撤出市場的綜合方法，我們的股東的狀況要好得多。相對於一方與另一方的獨家途徑，這創造了許多價值。因此，我們將繼續評估增加產能的吸引力，其基礎是我們能否在風險調整的基礎上產生高於資本成本的回報，因為產生更多的現金流只會允許未來進行更大規模的股票回購，但事實並非如此。必然是關於我們當時的交易情況的時間點比較，因為眾所周知，這些資產的長度長達 40 年、50 年、60 年。

And so we really need to take a view of do we fully expect it to be a positive IRR and PP positive transaction to invest in a new plant because we can always default to buying shares back. And by the way, because of how well the business is operating, it's not an either/or question for us, we can actually do both at the same time.

因此，我們確實需要考慮一下，我們是否完全期望投資新工廠是一項正 IRR 和 PP 正交易，因為我們總是可以默認回購股票。順便說一句，由於業務運作良好，這對我們來說不是一個非此即彼的問題，我們實際上可以同時做這兩件事。

The next question is from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的史蒂夫·伯恩。

Bert, I got a couple of questions about your near-term outlook. Could the strong ammonia fall application season, you wrote the spring demand for urea perhaps more than UAN. Is that why maybe your UAN production was so robust in the fourth quarter. .

伯特，我有幾個關於你的近期前景的問題。可能秋季應用旺季氨氣旺盛，你寫的春季尿素需求或許會超過UAN。這就是為什麼你們的 UAN 生產在第四季如此強勁的原因嗎？ 。

And when you look out at imports coming into the U.S., you commented about low inventory levels, some lower production in the U.S., we're hearing that there might be a much less level of imports this spring than in prior years. Is that consistent with your view? And how much have you sold forward into the second quarter?

當你觀察進入美國的進口時，你評論道庫存水準較低，美國的產量有所下降，我們聽說今年春季的進口水準可能比往年少得多。這與您的觀點一致嗎？第二季您預售了多少？

Okay, Steve. And some very good questions and top of the -- of our mind today. Because as we look outside in Sunny Chicago, it's 43 degrees and we've got good soil moisture, and I would anticipate an early spring based on historicals and what we see throughout the Midwest. What that means is you're pulling forward demand. That encompassing earlier opening to river barges means product can move. So a lot of synergistic things happening at the same time. Our outlook is positive. 91 million acres of corn and good moisture and wheat country and as well as good value surpassed.

好吧，史蒂夫。還有一些非常好的問題，也是我們今天最關心的問題。因為當我們在陽光明媚的芝加哥向外看時，氣溫為 43 度，土壤濕度良好，根據歷史和我們在中西部地區看到的情況，我預計會出現早春。這意味著你正在拉動需求。提前開放內河駁船意味著產品可以運輸。所以很多協同的事情同時發生。我們的前景是積極的。 9100萬英畝的玉米和良好的水分和小麥的國家以及良好的價值超越。

You're going to see nitrogen applications in all the segments, probably at or above normal. When you look at the fall ammonia level. As we said, that was our -- probably our second best fall ammonia in 10 years. But when you put that into context of how many tons could go out, there is a substantial amount of demand to be satisfied with ammonia, UAN and urea in the spring.

您將在所有部分看到氮氣的應用，可能達到或高於正常水平。當你觀察秋季氨水平時。正如我們所說，這可能是我們 10 年來第二好的秋季氨水。但如果考慮到可以消耗多少噸，就會發現春季對氨、尿素和尿素的需求量很大。

So our probably a couple of hundred thousand tons more than normal, we believe we were one of the last companies standing due to our logistics capabilities and distribution networks, which we leveraged very well with product in place, and then we're able to run all the way through November in Q4. And so I look for a very positive spring demand for UAN and urea as well as ammonia.

因此，我們的產量可能比正常情況多了幾十萬噸，我們相信，由於我們的物流能力和分銷網絡，我們是最後屹立不倒的公司之一，我們很好地利用了產品到位的優勢，然後我們就能夠運作第四季一直持續到 11 月。因此，我預計春季對尿素、尿素以及氨的需求非常積極。

The imports have been lower, and that's been fairly consistent. But when you go back and look at it in totality, the low level of inventory we believe that we carried in, coupled with the low level of imports to date, and we're tracking vessel nominations in what we think are coming in, in Feb, March and April, it's going to be a challenge. And then, again, weaving into that an early spring impacts that even more.

進口量較低，而且相當穩定。但是，當你回顧一下整體情況時，我們認為我們持有的庫存水平較低，加上迄今為止的進口水平較低，而且我們正在跟踪我們認為即將進入的船舶提名，二月、三月和四月，這將是一個挑戰。然後，再一次，早春的影響更大。

And so our forward call is we're probably going to see and we are seeing some price appreciation, you're going to see demand coming forward earlier, and we're prepared or being prepared for that eventuality even with some of the loss of production we experienced in January, we believe others in our industry experience it as well. But these are the challenges we face, and we will meet them.

因此，我們的前瞻性預測是，我們可能會看到價格上漲，您會看到需求提前出現，我們已經為這種可能性做好了準備，即使損失了一些我們在一月份經歷了生產，我們相信我們行業的其他人也經歷過。但這些都是我們面臨的挑戰，我們將會應對它們。

And maybe just one quick one for you, Chris. In that flue gas carbon capture analysis that you're doing there's a variety of technologies out there. Are you looking at several different technologies? And are you also looking at potentially using oxygen in the boiler instead of urea?

也許只是給你一個快速的，克里斯。在您正在進行的煙氣碳捕獲分析中，有多種技術。您正在研究幾種不同的技術嗎？您是否也考慮在鍋爐中使用氧氣代替尿素？

Well, I'll say the engineering team has reviewed several different engineering types for the flue gas capture, but we are focusing on one specific as we're moving through the FEED study rather than doing multiple FEED studies with additional technology providers through that.

嗯，我想說的是，工程團隊已經審查了幾種不同的煙氣捕集工程類型，但我們在進行FEED 研究時專注於一種特定的工程類型，而不是與其他技術提供者一起進行多項FEED 研究。

The next question is from Josh Spector with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Josh Spector。

So I wanted to follow up on the additional FEED studies for carbon capture. And just specifically asked about if there's been any changes in what you're hearing in terms of policy in Japan. I thought Japan was kind of leading the way that clean ammonia 60%, 70% lower carbon was something they were comfortable with accepting with their first move to reduce coal intensity, maybe other countries wanted to push it further. Does has anything changed on the Japan side and as that relates to your first potential investment here?

因此，我想跟進碳捕獲的額外 FEED 研究。我只是特別詢問您所聽到的日本政策是否有任何變化。我認為日本在某種程度上處於領先地位，他們在降低煤炭強度的第一步中就願意接受清潔氨60%、70%的低碳，也許其他國家希望進一步推動這項措施。日本方面有什麼變化嗎？這與您在這裡的第一個潛在投資有關嗎？

Yes. From Japan side, I don't think they've come out necessarily with the strict, what are their requirements for carbon intensity. We've had plenty of discussions not only with our partners, but with the government related to that, there's a few different scenarios that they're playing through. But as to exactly what they want, that hasn't come. They have, as you mentioned, preliminarily said that they would be willing to accept a lower carbon intensity or I should say, yes, a lower carbon intensity amount there, whereas some of the other nations specifically Korea, are looking for carbon intensity that basically has 90% reduction.

是的。從日本方面來說，我認為他們對碳強度的要求不一定很嚴格。我們不僅與我們的合作夥伴進行了大量討論，還與相關政府進行了許多討論，他們正在經歷一些不同的場景。但至於他們到底想要什麼，那還沒到來。正如您所提到的，他們初步表示他們願意接受較低的碳強度，或者我應該說，是的，那裡的碳強度較低，而其他一些國家，特別是韓國，正在尋求基本上減少了90 %。

And that's why we're looking at some of these other options as well to do that. So more to come on the clarity, as Tony mentioned in his prepared remarks and his questions about what's happening out at Japan. Now, one of the things that is occurring in Japan right now is the cabinet has moved forward with a package for this towards the diet. So we should see some sort of approval from essentially the diet in the next several months. And then from there, Medi would be able to allocate those funds and we begin to put in applications for the projects with our partners. So nothing has changed from where we stood 3 months ago or 6 months ago, but we are looking at many different alternatives, as Tony mentioned.

這就是為什麼我們也在考慮其他一些選擇來做到這一點。正如托尼在他準備好的演講和他對日本正在發生的事情的問題中提到的那樣，還有更多的內容要澄清。現在，日本正在發生的事情之一是內閣已經針對飲食製定了一項計劃。因此，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們應該會看到飲食療法得到某種程度的認可。然後，Medi 將能夠分配這些資金，我們開始與合作夥伴一起提交專案申請。因此，與 3 個月或 6 個月前相比，我們的立場沒有任何變化，但正如托尼所提到的，我們正在考慮許多不同的替代方案。

Okay. So just on Waggaman. I mean I don't believe you mentioned at all that -- anything update on what you're doing in terms of potential CCS at that site. So just curious if you have any thoughts there on what that could look like time line wise? And if there's anything to note about why CapEx or even OpEx, I guess, as you think about sending it on pipeline to get sequestered if that's meaningfully different versus what you're doing in Donaldsonville or similar?

好的。所以就在瓦格曼上。我的意思是，我不相信您提到任何關於您在該網站潛在 CCS 所做工作的更新。所以只是好奇你是否對時間線有什麼想法？我猜，當您考慮將其發送到管道中以進行隔離時，如果這與您在唐納森維爾或類似地區所做的事情有很大不同，那麼是否有什麼需要注意的原因？

Well, I think Waggaman is just another site within our whole entire network now. So we're viewing Waggaman similarly how we're reviewing all our sites when it comes to CCS, that being specifically Yazoo City, and Medicine Hat in Alberta, some of the projects that are a little bit further along but our team is evaluating CCS at Waggaman, but again, similar to how we're evaluating at all other sites.

嗯，我認為 Waggaman 現在只是我們整個網路中的另一個網站。因此，我們對 Waggaman 的看法與我們在 CCS 方面審查所有地點的方式類似，特別是亞祖市和艾伯塔省的梅迪辛哈特，其中一些項目進展稍遠，但我們的團隊正在評估 CCS在Waggaman，但同樣，與我們在所有其他網站的評估方式類似。

What I would say from a pipeline and sequestration, I think with Louisiana getting primacy on Class VI, we should be seeing a little bit more expedited approvals of those Class VI, specifically in Louisiana and that's going to help move things along much more quickly.

我想說的是，從管道和封存來看，我認為隨著路易斯安那州在VI 類項目上佔據主導地位，我們應該會看到這些VI 類項目的審批速度會更快一些，特別是在路易斯安那州，這將有助於更快地推動事情進展。

And I think based on some of where those Class VI wells, particularly are, are also going to direct us where we're going to put more of our time on each of our network sites for CCS. So more to come on that, but we continue to evaluate and be very optimistic about Waggaman just as we are at Donaldsonville today.

我認為，基於這些 VI 級井的一些情況，尤其是這些井的情況，也將指導我們在每個 CCS 網路站點上投入更多時間。未來還會有更多的事情發生，但我們將繼續評估瓦加曼並對瓦加曼非常樂觀，就像我們今天在唐納森維爾一樣。

The next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Who are the natural buyers for your green ammonia? And how do you think about the price at which you might sell it?

誰是您的綠色氨的自然買家？您如何看待出售它的價格？

So what we're working on now is just that the volume of product that we will be producing could be digestible in a vessel, which could go to Europe. We're working with some of the ethanol producers for a low-carbon corn value chain, which we believe will lead then to sustainable aviation fuel and low carbon fuel products.

因此，我們現在正在研究的只是我們將生產的產品量可以在容器中消化，然後運往歐洲。我們正在與一些乙醇生產商合作建立低碳玉米價值鏈，我們相信這將帶來可持續的航空燃料和低碳燃料產品。

We're talking to some of the food companies and some of their labeling ventures and how do we do that and incorporate that? So both blue and green or let's just call it low carbon and no carbon products, we're moving forward. And we think we have quite a few opportunities to market those products at a value over conventional products.

我們正在與一些食品公司及其一些標籤企業進行交談，我們如何做到這一點並將其納入其中？因此，無論是藍色還是綠色，或者我們稱之為低碳和無碳產品，我們都在前進。我們認為我們有很多機會以高於傳統產品的價格銷售這些產品。

Yes. And I think if you look at it, Jeff, both similar with blue and green, we're going to be the first to market with these. And as you look at the green, there's just not a lot of supply there. So as Bert mentioned, you're probably going to see a premium based on that product that is significantly above our cost, I would say, just because it's a smaller amount.

是的。我認為，傑夫，如果你看一下，藍色和綠色都很相似，我們會是第一個將這些產品推向市場的人。當你觀察綠色時，你會發現那裡的供應量不多。正如伯特所提到的，你可能會看到基於該產品的溢價明顯高於我們的成本，我想說，只是因為它的金額較小。

As we bring on blue, we'll be the first in the world with any measurable amount of volume with that. And I think there's a lot of activity, as Bert said, on the demand pull side that we're beginning to see that we feel fairly confident that we'll be able to receive some sort of premium on it what that is, that is yet to be determined 100% at this time.

當我們引入藍色時，我們將成為世界上第一個擁有可測量數量的藍色的公司。我認為，正如伯特所說，在需求拉動方面有很多活動，我們開始看到我們相當有信心，我們將能夠獲得某種溢價，那就是目前尚未確定 100%。

Okay. And then natural gas prices have fallen pretty sharply, but you also hedge. Do you expect much hedging penalty in the first quarter?

好的。然後天然氣價格大幅下跌，但你也可以對沖。您預計第一季的對沖處罰是否會很大？

So how we talk about gas is just that. We do hedge and we saw that the reason why in January with the spikes up to $50 in our Iowa facilities and actual availability or lack thereof in some other facilities. So hedging and securing supply during the cold months of Dec, Jan and Feb are important. But you're correct on the reverse side of that is those hedges were taken at higher value than we are in the cash market today. So your first quarter value for gas will be over what the cash value is and more to come on that.

所以我們談論天然氣的方式就是這樣。我們確實進行了對沖，我們發現這就是為什麼一月份我們愛荷華州設施的價格飆升至 50 美元，而其他一些設施的實際可用性或缺乏的原因。因此，在 12 月、1 月和 2 月寒冷的月份裡，對沖和確保供應非常重要。但你的反面觀點是正確的，這些對沖的價值高於我們今天在現金市場上的價值。因此，第一季的天然氣價值將超過現金價值，而且還會更多。

I would say, though, the offset to that, Jeff, is we're not -- we're clearly not 100% hedged. We do, to Bert's point, like to do basis hedging more than Henry Hub necessarily hedging. And so we are benefiting from the drop in the daily cash rate on a piece of it as well. And so in some cases, it's not fixed price. There could be some swaps or some colors that are in there. And so we do get to participate in a portion of that reduction in gas costs.

不過，傑夫，我想說的是，我們顯然沒有 100% 對沖。在伯特看來，我們確實更喜歡進行基差對沖，而不是亨利港必然的對沖。因此，我們也從其中一部分的每日現金利率下降中受益。因此在某些情況下，它不是固定價格。那裡可能有一些交換或一些顏色。因此，我們確實可以參與部分天然氣成本削減。

But really, what we're trying to do is protect the margin against unusual weather events that can blow out against us. And if you end up giving up a nickel or a dime along the way in order to protect against the potential blowout that's a reasonable insurance policy from our perspective. But Q2 forward is open.

但實際上，我們正​​在努力做的是保護利潤免受可能對我們不利的異常天氣事件的影響。如果您最終為了防止潛在的井噴而放棄了五分錢或一毛錢，那麼從我們的角度來看，這是一項合理的保險政策。但第二季的未來是開放的。

The next question is from Richard Garchitorena with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

My first question was just on the update to the Mitsui JV and the clean energy project. So it looks like the initial CapEx estimate from the FEED study is roughly $3 billion. Just curious, where did -- does that compare to the original estimate when you signed the MOU back in early 2022, how much capacity does that entail and then also, what protocols are you putting in place to maintain that cost estimate as you progress through development?

我的第一個問題是關於三井合資企業和清潔能源專案的最新情況。因此，FEED 研究的初步資本支出估計約為 30 億美元。只是好奇，這與您在 2022 年初簽署諒解備忘錄時的原始估計相比，在哪裡進行的？這需要多少容量，然後，您正在製定哪些協議來維持該成本估計發展？

Yes. So we have not made a final investment decision on that yet. We have an estimate that we think is within kind of plus/minus 10%-ish of the final cost. But we have not made a decision to proceed with that. And therefore, there's nothing that we've done to kind of "lock" in that price because no decision has been made to progress.

是的。所以我們還沒有就此做出最終的投資決定。我們估計最終成本在正負 10% 左右的範圍內。但我們還沒有決定繼續這樣做。因此，我們沒有採取任何措施來「鎖定」該價格，因為尚未做出任何進展決定。

Relative to when we initially began talking with Mitsui and created kind of the MOU around the joint venture to pursue this project. We had, I would say, some very high-level estimates of where we thought the cost might come in, but we certainly had not gone through the process of doing the FEED study to get an accurate cost estimate. And so it was just directional at best. I would say that the cost to complete, including the site level and a scalable infrastructure that Chris mentioned in his comments, is a bit higher than what we had maybe initially thought.

相對於我們最初開始與三井物產談判並圍繞合資企業創建某種諒解備忘錄以開展該項目的情況。我想說的是，我們對成本可能來自的地方進行了一些非常高水平的估計，但我們當然沒有經歷過 FEED 研究的過程來獲得準確的成本估計。所以它充其量只是定向的。我想說的是，完成成本，包括克里斯在評論中提到的站點級別和可擴展基礎設施，比我們最初想像的要高一些。

But I think that's reflective of the relatively tight labor market and inflation in general, particularly around some of the exotic metals that are required. But what that also suggests is that the value of existing assets is that much higher as we saw with the sale of the Weaver asset here just recently and suggest that the value of the rest of our network is, again, even that much higher as well.

但我認為這反映了相對緊張的勞動力市場和整體通膨，特別是圍繞著一些所需的奇異金屬。但這也表明，現有資產的價值要高得多，正如我們最近出售 Weaver 資產時所看到的那樣，並且表明我們網路的其餘部分的價值也同樣高得多。

So we're still in process of evaluating whether there's a project that we want to fund here or not. And as part of that, we are evaluating different production technologies and different amounts of carbon reduction levels. And we'll make that ultimate decision kind of sometime in the back half of this year, along with our partner, Mitsui.

因此，我們仍在評估是否有我們想要資助的項目。作為其中的一部分，我們正在評估不同的生產技術和不同的碳減排水準。我們將與我們的合作夥伴三井物產一起在今年下半年的某個時候做出最終決定。

Okay. Great. And then just talking about the nitrogen market. It looks like you cited about 40% of ammonia capacity in Europe being shut down in early January. And that's up versus around 25%, I believe, as of early November. And this is during a period when European natural gas prices have actually come down over 40%. So I guess, what is driving that? Is that -- is part of that curtailment maintenance shutdowns? Or are these -- part of these permanent shutdowns they expect to continue through 2024?

好的。偉大的。然後談論氮氣市場。看來您提到 1 月初歐洲約有 40% 的合成氨產能被關閉。我相信，截至 11 月初，這一數字比 25% 左右有所上升。而此時歐洲天然氣價格實際上已經下降了 40% 以上。所以我想，是什麼推動了這一點？這是削減維護停工的一部分嗎？或者這些是他們預計將持續到 2024 年的永久關閉的一部分嗎？

I mean I think it can be both of that. There's also an issue of if you can acquire deepwater-traded ammonia at a cost that's lower than what you can produce using domestic gas. There's no reason not to do it. If you are in a facility primarily doing nitrate as opposed to urea, you don't need the CO2.

我的意思是我認為兩者都可以。還有一個問題是，您能否以低於使用家用天然氣生產的成本獲得深水交易的氨。沒有理由不這樣做。如果您所在的工廠主要生產硝酸鹽而不是尿素，則不需要二氧化碳。

And I think a reflection of the gas -- current gas price today is in the cash market that was not available just a short time ago. And so the reflection of 40% as a look back on Q4 and entering into Q1, and you're probably going to see some of those plants restart, especially with the Russian announcement of limiting ammonium nitrate exports that just came out today, that's going to have a substantial impact on Eastern Europe and Central Europe and probably the ability to export for the Western European producers who can export, for example, Brazil had a 1 million-ton consumer of ammonium nitrate and Central America will need someone to supply that.

我認為天然氣的反映——今天的天然氣價格是在現貨市場上，而不久前還沒有。因此，回顧第四季度並進入第一季度，您可能會看到其中一些工廠重新啟動，特別是今天剛發布的俄羅斯宣布限制硝酸銨出口，這就是 40% 的反映。對東歐和中歐產生重大影響，並可能對能夠出口的西歐生產商的出口能力產生重大影響，例如，巴西有100 萬噸硝酸銨消費者，而中美洲將需要有人來供應。

So let's say, today, it's $8 gas, that's doable in relation to the absence of the product coming out of Russia. So things are changing. And I think the gas as well as the supply market is as well.

假設今天的汽油價格是 8 美元，考慮到俄羅斯沒有產品，這是可行的。所以事情正在改變。我認為天然氣和供應市場也是如此。

The next question is from Edlain Rodriguez with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的艾德蘭羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Maybe this is for Tony, or maybe for Bert. I mean if you compare where we are today with 3, 4, 5 months ago, are you more positive or less positive on the prospect of the industry in CF for 2024, and that's looking at some of the big drivers, like corn prices, corn acreage, the energy complex, supply demand? Like anything else you want to address? Like do you see things being more -- are you more or less positive?

也許這是為了托尼，也許是為了伯特。我的意思是，如果你將我們今天的情況與3、4、5 個月前進行比較，你對2024 年CF 行業的前景更加樂觀還是不那麼樂觀，這會考慮一些重大驅動因素，例如玉米價格，玉米種植面積、能源綜合體、供給需求？您還想解決其他問題嗎？就像你看到事情變得更積極還是更不積極？

Yes. I mean, I think gas has been very constructive for us. Our cost, it looks like as they're shaping up for the balance of the year should be down substantially relative to where we were back in kind of November when we put together our thoughts of where we expected the year to come out.

是的。我的意思是，我認為天然氣對我們非常有建設性。看起來，隨著​​今年剩餘時間的到來，我們的成本應該會比 11 月我們對今年的預期結果進行匯總時的水平大幅下降。

I also think that some of the other changes kind of structurally, whether it's potential imports running slower than expected in early spring what we believe is lower channel inventories than kind of many expect out there. All of those things, I think, are net positives for our business, particularly for the first half. So overall, my sense is we're feeling pretty good about the way the year is shaping up.

我還認為，其他一些結構性變化，無論是早春的潛在進口速度比預期慢，還是我們認為渠道庫存低於許多人的預期。我認為，所有這些事情對我們的業務都是淨積極的，特別是在上半年。總的來說，我的感覺是我們對今年的進展感覺非常好。

I agree. In terms of where we were coming into a falling market, falling urea price market in Q4 and now in Q1 arising urea market. Why is that? Related to energy, of course, and the inability of -- or the non-economic position of the European producer and higher imports, but you're seeing in terms of the global market of a very tight market, you've had downtime in Malaysia, export restrictions in Indonesia, export restrictions in China, as well as heavy imports and continued imports into India, but heavy imports into Brazil.

我同意。就我們進入市場下跌的情況而言，第四季尿素價格市場下跌，現在第一季尿素市場上漲。這是為什麼？當然，與能源有關，以及歐洲生產商的無能或非經濟地位以及進口量的增加，但你會看到，就全球市場而言，市場非常緊張，你已經停工了馬來西亞、印尼的出口限制、中國的出口限制，以及印度的大量進口和持續進口，但巴西的大量進口。

And we're just entering our season, as we talked about previously with a tight market and needing to be -- to bring in product and so you have a tighter global market and then that's reflected in price. For the values for the FEED grains, corn at $64.70 is very attractive, especially when you look at trend yield over 180 and yields in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana above 200, it's very profitable. This will be the fourth best year in 10 years for the American farmer. And so when you couple that all together, as well as global supply and demand, I would say we're positive for 2023 -- 2024.

我們只是進入我們的季節，正如我們之前談到的，市場緊張，需要引進產品，因此全球市場更加緊張，這會反映在價格上。對於飼料穀物的價值來說，64.70 美元的玉米價格非常有吸引力，特別是當你看到趨勢產量超過180 且愛荷華州、伊利諾伊州、印第安納州的產量超過200 時，這是非常有利可圖圖的。對美國農民來說，這將是十年來第四個表現最好的一年。因此，當你將所有這些以及全球供需結合時，我想說我們對 2023 年至 2024 年持樂觀態度。

The next question is from Ben Theurer with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Just wanted to follow up a little bit on the international trade dynamics and in particular, the export market versus the import markets and where you're seeing especially in South America, Brazil inventory levels. We've talked about the North American as being low, but we all know Brazil has been a little bit more of an issue.

只是想跟進國際貿易動態，特別是出口市場與進口市場的對比，以及您所看到的情況，尤其是南美、巴西的庫存水準。我們已經討論過北美市場的低迷，但我們都知道巴西的問題更大一些。

So within that 70 million to 80 million tons of import need. What's your sense on the ground inventories in Brazil right now? And how does that shape up for your opportunities to potentially export into the region?

因此，需要進口 7,000 萬噸至 8,000 萬噸。您對巴西目前的地面庫存有何看法？這對您向該地區出口的潛在機會有何影響？

Yes. So CF is an active exporter of our major products, ammonia, UAN, urea and some ammonium nitrate. The UAN has predominantly gone to Europe, Argentina and Australia and urea is more spot and situational. Where we are in Brazil today with about 44 million tons of consumption of NPK and the targets for 2024 are closer to 46 million tons, you're going to need -- our projections are over 8 million tons of urea imports to Brazil for the calendar year. And that's a very positive move.

是的。因此，CF 是我們主要產品氨、尿素、尿素和一些硝酸銨的活躍出口商。尿素主要銷往歐洲、阿根廷和澳大利亞，而尿素則較多是現貨和視情況而定。目前巴西的 NPK 消費量約為 4,400 萬噸，2024 年的目標接近 4,600 萬噸，您將需要——我們的預測是巴西在日曆期間進口超過 800 萬噸尿素年。這是一個非常積極的舉措。

That will push Brazil to the largest importing country surpassing India who is between 6 million and 7 million tons now. Brazil did have high levels of inventories and imports entering the year. Much of that was consumed during the safrinha season of which is January, February and March of applications, and they are low-level importers 200,000, 300,000 tons a month. Their wheat application starts in April, and then we moved to corn applications in July, August, September and then cotton later in the year and again, repeating the cycle.

這將使巴西超越印度，成為最大的進口國，印度目前的進口量為 600 萬噸至 700 萬噸。巴西今年的庫存和進口量確實很高。其中大部分是在一月、二月和三月的 safrinha 季節消耗的，低水準進口商每月進口 20 萬噸、30 萬噸。他們的小麥施用從四月開始，然後我們在七月、八月、九月開始施用玉米，然後在今年稍後施用棉花，如此循環往復。

So Brazil is the positive, I'd say, consumption train in the world of fertilizer economies, and it's going to continue to play a major part and so the S&D right now is balanced globally for urea.

因此，我想說，巴西是化肥經濟體世界中積極的消費火車，它將繼續發揮重要作用，因此目前全球尿素的特殊與差異是平衡的。

The next question is from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Andrew Wong。

So regarding your hurdle rate that's required for the investment decision at Blue Point, if you say -- like if you get take-or-pay offtake with steady volumes and steady margins, does that lower the rate for the hurdle versus some of your other projects or buybacks or anything else you'd be considering?

因此，關於藍點投資決策所需的最低門檻利率，如果你說，如果你以穩定的數量和穩定的利潤獲得照付不議的承購，那麼與其他一些公司相比，這是否會降低門檻利率項目或回購或其他您會考慮的事情？

Yes. I think as you look at any return on a project, it's a set return with a risk premium based in there. If you have take-or-pay, that's offtake on a ratable basis, you're probably willing to take a lower return profile on that. I mean that allows a lot of additional synergies that run throughout the entire network as we see with our Mosaic contract with them taking ammonia on a ratable basis, lower inventory, lower receivables, different things like that, lower risk involved and therefore, that allows you to have a lower risk premium and therefore, taking a slightly lower return on that.

是的。我認為，當你審視一個專案的任何回報時，你會發現它是一個固定回報，其中包含風險溢價。如果您採取照付不議的方式，即按比例承購，您可能願意接受較低的回報。我的意思是，這可以在整個網路中產生很多額外的協同效應，正如我們在馬賽克與他們簽訂的合約中看到的那樣，他們在可估價的基礎上獲取氨，降低庫存，降低應收賬款，諸如此類的不同事情，降低涉及的風險，因此，這允許您的風險溢價較低，因此回報率也較低。

Okay. Great. And then just regarding the Donaldsonville blue ammonia project, could you just provide the latest update for the injection well permits? And I think you mentioned this Louisiana gaining primacy on the classic wells. What does that mean? And how quickly can you get approvals there? And how quickly can drilling be completed?

好的。偉大的。關於唐納森維爾藍氨項目，您能否提供注入井許可證的最新更新？我想你提到了路易斯安那州在經典油井方面獲得了主導地位。這意味著什麼？您能多快獲得批准？鑽孔能多快完成？

Yes. So the approval time line on that is really based on our partner, Exxon, and what they're doing both with the Class VI and some of that's probably been accelerated some by their acquisition of the Denbury pipeline because it allows them other access to different states with Class VI that may have a, I would say, a shorter queue time than what Louisiana or some of the other states, so we are confident that in 2025, we will economically be receiving a benefit related to the 45Q and therefore, we'll have low carbon ammonia ready.

是的。因此，批准時間表實際上是基於我們的合作夥伴埃克森美孚，以及他們在VI 級​​專案上所做的事情，其中​​一些可能由於他們收購登伯里管道而加快了一些，因為它允許他們透過其他方式獲得不同的資源。我想說，VI 類州的排隊時間可能比路易斯安那州或其他一些州更短，因此我們有信心，到2025 年，我們將在經濟上獲得與45Q 相關的好處，因此，我們準備好低碳氨。

The next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Tony, on the blue ammonia JV with Mitsui, I guess a couple of questions. One, if we get to the second half of '24, and I assume that's probably the third quarter call or maybe you'll have an update and you're not moving forward at that point, what happened, do you think? And then just secondly, I believe there are several other potential MOUs or JV partners that you have out there. Is there any update on those? Or is that all pending sort of the outcome with Mitsui?

東尼，關於與三井物產的藍氨合資企業，我想有幾個問題。第一，如果我們到了 24 年下半年，我想這可能是第三季的電話會議，或者也許你會有更新，但那時你沒有繼續前進，你認為發生了什麼？其次，我相信還有其他幾個潛在的諒解備忘錄或合資夥伴。這些有更新嗎？或者這一切都是三井的結果嗎？

Yes. We're very happy with the agreements that we have in place and the partners that we have lined up to pursue these kind of opportunities with us. A lot of them that we have come out publicly with tend to be Asian focus. So a couple of Japanese firms as well as South Koreans.

是的。我們對我們所達成的協議以及與我們一起尋求此類機會的合作夥伴感到非常滿意。我們公開發布的許多內容往往以亞洲為重點。所以有一些日本公司和韓國公司。

I would say that the Korean government and the customers as a result are a little bit behind from a time line perspective compared to the Japanese. And so we'll likely be making a decision around a plant principally targeting the Japanese market first, and then we'll eventually look at both Korean market and potentially European partners that we've discussed with as well further out. And that could be served by one in the same plant or it might have different requirements associated with it.

我想說，從時間軸的角度來看，與日本相比，韓國政府和客戶有點落後。因此，我們可能會先圍繞主要針對日本市場的工廠做出決定，然後我們最終會考慮韓國市場以及我們已經討論過的潛在歐洲合作夥伴。這可以由同一工廠中的一個來滿足，也可能有不同的相關要求。

But if we decide not to proceed, I think it's a combination of very likely just aggregate costs associated with moving forward and lack of line of sight on making sure that we can earn an appropriate risk-adjusted rate of return against that cost or not. Relative to the global S&D. I think I kind of went through that a bit in my prepared remarks, which is we're constructive on where we sit right now.

但如果我們決定不繼續進行，我認為這很可能只是與前進相關的總成本以及缺乏確保我們能夠根據該成本獲得適當的風險調整回報率的視線的結合。相對於全球S&D。我想我在準備好的發言中已經談過這一點，那就是我們對現在的立場持建設性態度。

Our results last year were strong. We're looking at another good year this year. Longer term, traditional applications for nitrogen continue to grow in the kind of 1.5 plus or minus percent range per year, and there's not enough new projects that are currently under construction globally to meet that requirement. Adding into the either supply deficit or demand increase is you've got some plants around the world, including Trinidad and some in Europe that are facing challenges with gas availability and gas cost. And then you've got new or potentially new applications for ammonia that are also developing.

我們去年的業績非常強勁。今年我們期待著又一個美好的一年。從長遠來看，氮的傳統應用繼續以每年 1.5% 左右的速度成長，而目前全球正在建造的新項目還不足以滿足此要求。除了供應短缺或需求增加之外，世界各地的一些工廠（包括特立尼達和歐洲的一些工廠）都面臨天然氣供應和天然氣成本的挑戰。然後氨的新應用或潛在新應用也在開發中。

So all of those things lead to a tighter global S&D marketplace bidding in higher and higher cost of production around the world. And that provides, I think, a reasonable backdrop for us to be considering building new production capacity. But we have to, at the end of the day, be comfortable that we can earn an appropriate rate of return that's well above our cost of capital for us to want to proceed with a project like that.

因此，所有這些因素導致全球研發市場競標更加嚴格，全球生產成本越來越高。我認為，這為我們考慮建造新的產能提供了合理的背景。但歸根結底，我們必須確信我們能夠獲得遠高於我們資本成本的適當回報率，這樣我們才能繼續進行這樣的專案。

The next question is from Aron Ceccarelli with Berenberg.

下一個問題來自 Aron Ceccarelli 和 Berenberg。

My first one is about the comments you made on farmer incomes in your press release. You talked about improving farmer income in North America and in 2024. I was wondering what's the thought process here, considering that we saw John Deere today being a little bit more downbeat and I think USDA report last month was a little bit downbeat to.

我的第一個問題是關於您在新聞稿中對農民收入的評論。您談到了在 2024 年提高北美農民收入。我想知道這裡的思考過程是什麼，考慮到我們今天看到約翰迪爾有點悲觀，而且我認為美國農業部上個月的報告有點悲觀。

My second question is around blue ammonia and the news around the potential partnership with POSCO. Is there any color you can provide about the implied blue premium you are assuming or you have in mind?

我的第二個問題是關於藍氨以及與 POSCO 潛在合作夥伴關係的新聞。對於您假設或您想到的隱含藍色溢價，您是否可以提供任何顏色？

And my final one is on exports from China. I think Yara last week in Europe mentioned that Chinese export could potentially come back a little bit, your messaging today in the presentation seems that there could be some temporary windows about where Chinese could export. So just wondering if you see the situation changing pretty much what you would expect, again, a very tight export market from China at this stage?

我的最後一項是關於中國的出口。我認為雅拉上週在歐洲提到中國出口可能會有所回升，您今天在演示中傳達的信息似乎可能存在一些關於中國出口的臨時窗口。所以想知道您是否看到情況發生了很大的變化，與您所期望的一樣，現階段中國的出口市場非常緊張？

Regarding the farmer income comment, what my comment was it's the fourth best in about 10 years. So when you look at -- as compared to last year, the year before, you're referencing John Deere, some of the chemical or seed suppliers, if not it's lower, but it's still at $4, $64.70 corn for December, corn pricing today, and what was hedgeable not just a few months ago with $5.10, $5.20 very attractive, again, based on just trend yield of 180 bushels an acre, which is what we're targeting for 2024.

關於農民收入的評論，我的評論是大約十年來第四好。因此，當你看時，與去年、前年相比，你參考的是約翰迪爾、一些化學品或種子供應商，即使不是更低，但仍然是4 美元，12 月玉米價格為64.70 美元，玉米價格今天，不僅幾個月前可對沖的價格為 5.10 美元，5.20 美元也非常有吸引力，再次基於每英畝 180 蒲式耳的趨勢產量，這是我們 2024 年的目標。

But most high-state farmers are in the 200 to 250 bushels. So very profitable even with the drop in fertilizer prices, the drop in diesel prices. And so you have to look at the total cost structure for a farmer, whether that's owned land or rented land, variable costs against fixed costs and putting that whole structure together, it's still a good time to be a farmer. That was the point.

但大多數高州農民的產量都在 200 至 250 蒲式耳之間。即使化肥價格下跌、柴油價格下跌，利潤也非常豐厚。因此，你必須考慮農民的總成本結構，無論是自有土地還是租用土地，可變成本與固定成本的比較，並將整個結構放在一起，這仍然是成為農民的好時機。這就是重點。

Regarding the exports from China, we've seen a different China about every other year. And our prepared remarks and communication about what we expect out of China is that the government restrictions are in place for urea and some phosphate products. They will continue through or into Q2 and our expectations for China -- or if they will export, they will return to the export market. And being that in the past 5 years, it's been between 2 million and 5 million tons we would say 3 million to 4 million tons of exports or a logical volume for 2024.

從中國的出口來看，我們每隔一年就會看到一個不一樣的中國。我們準備好的評論和溝通對中國的期望是，政府對尿素和一些磷酸鹽產品實施了限制。它們將持續到第二季​​以及我們對中國的預期——或者如果它們將出口，它們將返回出口市場。過去 5 年，出口量在 200 萬噸到 500 萬噸之間，我們可以說出口量為 300 萬噸到 400 萬噸，或者說 2024 年的出口量是合理的。

And then relative to blue ammonia premium, blue ammonia for us makes great economic sense even if there were no premium in the marketplace because of the 45Q tax credit, I think we've kind of gone through that math a little bit in the past, but we expect a net benefit from the Donaldsonville blue ammonia project in order of magnitude of roughly about $100 million net benefit to us per year.

然後，相對於藍氨溢價，藍氨對我們來說具有很大的經濟意義，即使由於 45Q 稅收抵免，市場上沒有溢價，我認為我們過去已經稍微進行過計算，但我們預計唐納森維爾藍氨項目每年將為我們帶來約1 億美元的淨收益。

So just on the face of it, that's a great investment for us. Now that said, we have had I would say, ever-increasing interest levels in blue ammonia from a variety of different constituents, including a number of our existing customers, but also some other folks that have reached out. And so based on a relatively small volume of decarbonized or blue ammonia that's going to be available principally just from us beginning in 2025.

因此，從表面上看，這對我們來說是一筆巨大的投資。話雖如此，我想說的是，各種不同成分對藍氨的興趣不斷增加，包括我們的一些現有客戶，但也有一些其他已經伸出援手的人。因此，基於相對少量的脫碳氨或藍氨，從 2025 年開始，這些氨將主要由我們提供。

And the appetite in the marketplace, we absolutely believe that it's going to be a commodity and scarce supply relative to the appetite for it. And so it will carry with it a premium in the marketplace just on in S&D, there's more demand than there is supply on. We have not formalized exactly how we're thinking about selling that in because we want to begin actually producing it, and that's going to be dependent to some extent on the timing of our partner Exxon Mobil in this deal. But we feel very good about the likelihood of a reasonable premium that adds on to what's a very attractive regulatory framework for blue.

以及市場的需求，我們絕對相信它將成為一種商品，並且相對於需求而言供應稀缺。因此，它將在 S&D 市場上帶來溢價，需求多於供應。我們還沒有正式明確我們如何考慮出售它，因為我們想開始實際生產它，這在某種程度上取決於我們的合作夥伴埃克森美孚在這筆交易中的時間表。但我們對合理溢價的可能性感到非常滿意，這增加了對藍色非常有吸引力的監管框架。

Also, I have one more positive comment for the team, for the company and for what we are about as a company with the Do It Right culture, we have the highest onstream factor. We have the best safety statistics in the world. And we're going to lead the world in this move to low-carbon ammonia because it's the right thing to do and the government is incentivizing us and our shareholders want us to do this. And so there's a lot of positive energy going forward with that and what we will bring to the market.

此外，我對團隊、公司以及我們作為一家擁有「正確行事」文化的公司還有一個更積極的評價，我們擁有最高的線上因素。我們擁有世界上最好的安全統計數據。我們將在向低碳氨的轉變中引領世界，因為這是正確的事情，政府正在激勵我們，我們的股東也希望我們這樣做。因此，我們將為市場帶來許多正面的能量。

Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions today. I would like to turn the call back over to Martin Jarosick for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的提問時間就到此為止。我想將電話轉回給馬丁·賈羅西克，請他發表結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在即將舉行的會議上見到您。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。