CF工業控股 (CF) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the CF Industries Q3 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 CF Industries 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Martin Jarosick, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，本次活動正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給財務和投資者關係副總裁馬丁·雅羅西克。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Tony Will, President and CEO; Chris Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Bert Frost, Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain; and Greg Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. CF Industries reported its results for the first nine months and third quarter of 2025 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook and then host a question-and-answer session.

早上好，感謝各位參加CF Industries的財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：總裁兼首席執行官托尼·威爾；執行副總裁兼首席營運官克里斯·博恩；銷售、市場開發和供應鏈執行副總裁伯特·弗羅斯特；以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官格雷格·卡梅倫。CF Industries 昨天下午公佈了其 2025 年前九個月和第三季的業績。在本次電話會議上，我們將回顧結果，討論我們的展望，然後進行問答環節。

Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC available on our website. Also, you'll find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website.

本次電話會議及我們網站上的簡報中，除歷史事實外的所有陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並非對未來業績的保證，並且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。因此，實際結果可能與任何聲明中明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們網站上向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。此外，您還可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿和簡報中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調整表。

Before we begin today's call, I want to provide an update on the incident we experienced at our Yazoo City, Mississippi complex last evening. All employees and contractors are safe and have been accounted for, and there are no significant injuries. The incident has been contained and an investigation is underway.

在開始今天的電話會議之前，我想就昨晚我們在密西西比州亞祖城綜合設施發生的事件作個報告。所有員工和承包商均安全，人數均已清點完畢，沒有發生重大傷亡。事件已控制，目前正在進行調查。

Now let me introduce Tony Will.

現在讓我來介紹一下托尼威爾。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the first nine months of 2025, in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 billion. These results reflect outstanding execution by the CF Industries team across all aspects of our business, and most importantly, our team continued to work safely. At the end of the quarter, our trailing 12-month average recordable incident rate was 0.37 incidents per 200,000 work hours.

謝謝你，馬丁，大家早安。昨天下午，我們公佈了 2025 年前九個月的業績，其中調整後的 EBITDA 為 21 億美元。這些結果反映了 CF Industries 團隊在業務各個方面出色的執行力，最重要的是，我們的團隊繼續安全地工作。截至季末，我們過去 12 個月的平均可記錄事故率為每 20 萬工時 0.37 起事故。

Five years ago, October 2020, we announced a significant shift in the company's strategic direction, including ambitious pan to begin decarbonizing our production network, a plan to become a world's leader in clean ammonia and a model example of environmental stewardship, and how to abate an energy-intensive business in a financially responsible way. Today, that vision has been realized. I'm very excited to announce that the plans we launched five years ago have begun delivering real value to our shareholders and broader benefits to the society as a whole.

五年前，2020 年 10 月，我們宣布了公司戰略方向的重大轉變，其中包括雄心勃勃的計劃，即開始對我們的生產網絡進行脫碳，成為清潔氨領域的全球領導者和環境管理的典範，以及如何以對財務負責的方式減少能源密集型業務。今天，這願景已經實現。我非常高興地宣布，我們五年前啟動的計劃已經開始為我們的股東帶來真正的價值，並為整個社會帶來更廣泛的利益。

We have made great strides over the last five years and have reduced our GHG emissions intensity by a whopping 25% from our original baseline. And every single one of the initiatives that contributed to this remarkable achievement have been highly NPV positive, creating substantial value for shareholders. We are the best example of how being environmentally responsible can actually go hand in hand with creating significant shareholder value.

過去五年，我們取得了長足進步，溫室氣體排放強度比最初的基準降低了驚人的 25%。促成這項卓越成就的每一項舉措都具有很高的淨現值正值，為股東創造了巨大的價值。我們是最好的例子，證明了對環境負責與創造巨大的股東價值可以並行不悖。

On our journey, we have executed all of the following initiatives: We closed two of our least efficient, highest emissions plants that were also borderline uneconomic to continue operating. We commissioned two new highly efficient lower emissions plants that have returned profiles exceeding 20% IRR. We acquired the Waggaman, Louisiana ammonia plant, a very efficient plant with relatively low GHG emissions intensity and increased production at that facility significantly from 750,000 tons annually to over 900,000 tons, resulting in an IRR of over 20%. We installed N2O abatement systems into certain nitric acid plants, the resulting carbon credits from which are being sold at high values, more than recovering our costs within just a single year. And finally, we have begun sequestering approximately 2 million metric tons per year of CO2 from our Donaldsonville complex.

在我們的發展歷程中，我們執行了以下所有措施：我們關閉了兩家效率最低、排放量最高的工廠，這兩家工廠繼續運作也幾乎不經濟。我們委託建造了兩座高效低排放的新電廠，內部收益率均超過 20%。我們收購了位於路易斯安那州瓦格曼的氨廠，該廠效率很高，溫室氣體排放強度相對較低，並將該廠的年產量從 75 萬噸大幅提高到 90 萬噸以上，從而實現了超過 20% 的內部收益率。我們在一些硝酸廠安裝了 N2O 減排系統，由此產生的碳信用額度以高價出售，僅一年就收回了成本。最後，我們已經開始從唐納森維爾工廠每年封存約 200 萬噸二氧化碳。

The 45Q tax credits from this project will more than pay our installation cost within two years, generating an IRR over 20%, and we are currently selling the resulting low carbon ammonia at premium. What is the (inaudible) commodity product, chemically identical to ammonia produced anywhere else in the world, has become differentiated and now commands a premium in the marketplace. These initiatives have helped reduce our emissions intensity by roughly 25% from our baseline, while creating significant value for our shareholders.

該項目獲得的 45Q 稅收抵免將在兩年內超過我們的安裝成本，產生超過 20% 的內部收益率，我們目前正在以溢價出售由此產生的低碳氨。這種（聽不清楚）商品產品，其化學成分與世界其他地方生產的氨完全相同，如今卻實現了差異化，並在市場上獲得了溢價。這些措施幫助我們將排放強度比基準水準降低了約 25%，同時為我們的股東創造了巨大的價值。

Now we are embarking on the development of the world's largest ultra-low emissions ammonia plant at our Blue Point complex in Louisiana. We have two world-class equity partners, Jarrett and Mitsui, with us in this venture. And I fully expect the financial and vital benefits will be equally as impressive as the initiatives we have already completed.

現在，我們正在路易斯安那州藍點工業園區著手建造世界上最大的超低排放氨廠。我們在這項投資中得到了 Jarrett 和 Mitsui 這兩個世界級股權合作夥伴的支持。我完全相信，這些措施在經濟和重要方面帶來的效益將與我們已經完成的措施一樣令人矚目。

Additionally, we have a second carbon capture and sequestration project underway at our Yazoo City, Mississippi complex, and numerous other initiatives yet to be announced. The end result is that we have a robust high-return growth trajectory in front of us through the end of the decade that will continue to dramatically reduce our GHG emissions intensity, while providing exceptional financial returns.

此外，我們在密西西比州亞祖城綜合設施中正在進行第二個碳捕獲和封存項目，還有許多其他計劃尚未公佈。最終結果是，到本十年末，我們將迎來強勁的高回報成長軌跡，這將繼續大幅降低我們的溫室氣體排放強度，同時帶來卓越的財務回報。

Before I turn the call over to Chris to talk more about our operating results, I do want to take a moment and highlight what I consider to be a great misconception in the market. I want to refer you to all the slides number 10, 11 and 12 in our materials.

在我將電話轉交給克里斯，讓他進一步談談我們的營運表現之前，我想花一點時間強調我認為市場上的一個很大的誤解。請參考我們資料中的第 10、11 和 12 張投影片。

Slides 10 and 11 show our consistently strong free cash flow generation and our relentless share repurchase program. Slide 12 shows the remarkable free cash flow conversion efficiency from EBITDA and yet amazingly, how we trade at a shockingly low valuation. Other times CF Industries as compared to agricultural companies and yet we are very different for most of those.

第 10 和 11 頁展示了我們持續強勁的自由現金流產生能力和我們不懈的股票回購計畫。第 12 張幻燈片顯示了 EBITDA 帶來的驚人的自由現金流轉換效率，但令人驚訝的是，我們的估值卻低得驚人。有時人們會將 CF 工業公司與農業公司進行比較，但我們與大多數農業公司都截然不同。

The seed and chemical companies face challenges of products coming off patent and declining margins or if distribution channels being stuffed full and having to go through the pain of destocking. We're also very different from capital equipment companies or those selling more discretionarily applied products like phosphate and potash, who are really in true subject to grow profitability.

種子和化學企業面臨產品專利到期和利潤率下降的挑戰，或者分銷管道飽和，不得不經歷去庫存的痛苦。我們與資本設備公司或銷售磷酸鹽和鉀肥等可自由支配產品的公司也截然不同，這些公司真正追求的是提高獲利能力。

However, our sole product, nitrogen is fundamentally different. Even in periods of relatively weak grower profitability, nitrogen demand is unaffected, almost completely inelastic. This year, when there was great hand wringing due to subdued grower profitability, high planted corn acres and global nitrogen supply production disruptions in other parts of the world. created a situation where nitrogen demand and resulting pricing was very, very strong.

然而，我們唯一的產品──氮氣，有著本質的不同。即使在種植者獲利能力相對較弱的時期，氮肥需求也不受影響，幾乎完全缺乏彈性。今年，由於種植者獲利能力低迷、玉米種植面積過大以及世界其他地區氮肥供應中斷，人們憂心忡忡，但這反而造成了氮肥需求和價格異常強勁的局面。

As Greg will talk about in a few minutes, we see the same strong demand dynamic shaping up for next year. Nitrogen and certainly CF Industries' financial performance is not impacted by most of the factors affecting the rest of the ag sector companies.

正如格雷格稍後將要談到的那樣，我們預計明年同樣強勁的需求動態也將隨之形成。氮肥產業以及CF工業公司的財務表現並不受影響其他農業領域公司的大多數因素的影響。

While other times, we are compared to industrials or material sectors, Again, we have very little in common with most of those companies either, especially the chemical companies. We do not suffer from global overcapacity nor from sluggish or declining demand. Our free cash flow generation is consistently high and yet as shown on page 12, we have traded at an anemic average cash flow multiple of barely 7.5 times free cash flow. Realistically, that should be the low end of an EBITDA multiple, not a cash flow multiple.

而有時，我們會被拿來與工業或材料產業進行比較，但我們與這些產業的大多數公司，特別是化學企業，也幾乎沒有任何共同之處。我們既沒有面臨全球產能過剩的問題，也沒有面臨需求疲軟或下降的問題。我們的自由現金流一直很高，但如第 12 頁所示，我們的平均現金流倍數卻很低，僅為自由現金流的 7.5 倍。實際上，這應該是 EBITDA 倍數的下限，而不是現金流倍數的下限。

Oddly, businesses that are on a whole more volatile and structurally way less advantage than CF trade at a higher valuation. The industrial sector trades at 27 times cash flow. The materials sector trades at 30 times cash flow. While our consistently high cash flow generation on average has traded at a (inaudible) 7.6 times. All of this is a long way of saying the market doesn't really understand our business or our consistently high free cash generation.

奇怪的是，那些整體波動性較大、結構上遠不如CF優勢的企業，其估值反而更高。工業類股的交易價格是現金流的27倍。材料板塊的本益比為30倍。雖然我們持續較高的現金流量產生能力平均交易價格為（聽不清楚）7.6 倍。說了這麼多，其實就是想說，市場並不真正了解我們的業務，也不了解我們持續高額的自由現金流。

As Greg will talk about shortly, we have made great progress on our share repurchases and continue to do so. We, around this table, believe CF represents an amazing value, especially when we're trading at an average 7.5 times cash flow. And we will continue aggressively repurchasing shares from the non-believers and those that don't take the time to understand why we are fundamentally different from most ag, industrial and materials companies.

正如格雷格稍後將要談到的那樣，我們在股票回購方面取得了巨大進展，並將繼續推進。我們這些在座的各位都認為 CF 代表著極高的價值，尤其是在我們以平均 7.5 倍現金流倍數進行交易的情況下。我們將繼續積極回購那些不相信我們、也不願意花時間去了解我們與大多數農業、工業和材料公司之間根本區別的人的股票。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Chris to provide more details on our operating results.

接下來，我將把發言權交給克里斯，讓他詳細介紹我們的經營績效。

Thanks, Tony. CF Industries manufacturing network has operated well throughout the year with a 97% ammonia utilization rate the first nine months of 2025. As is typical for the third quarter, we had significant maintenance activity with reduced production volumes compared to the first two quarters. We continue to expect to produce approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia for the full year. We also have made significant progress on strategic initiatives that are now generating EBITDA and free cash flow growth for the company.

謝謝你，托尼。CF Industries 的生產網絡全年運作良好，2025 年前九個月的氨利用率達到 97%。與往年第三季一樣，我們進行了大量的維護工作，產量較前兩季有所下降。我們預計全年總氨產量約1000萬噸。我們在策略性舉措方面也取得了重大進展，這些舉措現在正在為公司帶來 EBITDA 和自由現金流的成長。

In August, we are able to fully utilize expanded diesel exhaust fluid rail load-out capabilities at our Donaldsonville complex for the first time. This enabled us to capture incremental high-margin DEF sales and led to a monthly record for DEF shipments from the site. Also at Donaldsonville, the carbon dioxide dehydration and compression unit, which was commissioned in July continues to run well. We are generating 45Q tax credits and moved to a full rate safely through the quarter.

8 月，我們首次能夠在唐納森維爾工廠全面利用擴容後的柴油廢氣液軌裝載能力。這使我們能夠獲得利潤豐厚的柴油引擎廢氣處理液 (DEF) 增量銷售額，並導致該網站的 DEF 出貨量創下月度記錄。此外，唐納森維爾的二氧化碳脫水壓縮裝置於 7 月投入使用，目前運作良好。我們正在產生 45Q 稅收抵免，並且在本季安全地過渡到全額稅率。

Finally, in October, we completed a nitric acid plant abatement project at our verticals, Oklahoma facility. This project is expected to reduce carbon dioxide equivalent emissions at the site by over 600,000 metric tons on an annual basis, which we are monetizing through the sale of carbon credits. By the end of the decade, we expect the returns generated by our CCS products, along with the Verdigris project will add a consistent incremental $150 million to $200 million to our free cash flow.

最後，在 10 月份，我們完成了位於俄克拉荷馬州垂直工廠的硝酸廠減排計畫。該項目預計每年可減少該地點的二氧化碳當量排放量超過 60 萬噸，我們將透過出售碳信用額將其貨幣化。到本十年末，我們預計我們的碳捕集與封存產品以及 Verdigris 計畫所產生的收益將持續為我們的自由現金流增加 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元。

Longer term, we remain excited about the compelling growth opportunity that the Blue Point project offers us, particularly given the sales team's success and selling low-carbon ammonia from Donaldsonville for a premium. Detailed engineering activities and the regulatory permitting process are progressing well, with capital expenditures for 2025 and expected to be within the range we projected earlier this year. We expect site construction to begin in 2026.

從長遠來看，我們仍然對 Blue Point 專案為我們帶來的巨大成長機會感到興奮，特別是考慮到銷售團隊的成功以及從 Donaldsonville 以溢價銷售低碳氨。詳細的工程設計活動和監管許可流程進展順利，預計 2025 年的資本支出將與我們今年稍早預測的範圍一致。我們預計場地建設將於2026年開始。

With that, let me turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market and the growing interest in low carbon ammonia.

接下來，我將把發言權交給伯特，讓他來討論全球氮市場以及人們對低碳氨日益增長的興趣。

Thanks, Chris. The global nitrogen supply demand balance remained tight in the third quarter of 2025. Demand led by North America, India and Brazil was robust. Additionally, product availability remained constrained due to low global inventories and outages during both the third quarter and earlier in 2025. China's reentry into the urea export market provided tons the world needed, but did not substantially alter these dynamics.

謝謝你，克里斯。2025年第三季度，全球氮供需平衡依然緊張。北美、印度和巴西的需求強勁。此外，由於全球庫存低，以及2025年第三季和年初的停產情況，產品供應仍受到限制。中國重返尿素出口市場，提供了世界所需的數噸尿素，但並未實質地改變這些動態。

Looking ahead, we expect the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive. We believe supply availability will continue to be constrained. Global inventories are low, including in North America. Additionally, major planned and unplanned outages are occurring now while geopolitical issues and natural gas availability, particularly in Trinidad, remain a challenge. The start-up of new capacity also continues to be delayed.

展望未來，我們預期全球氮供需平衡將維持良好態勢。我們認為供應供應將繼續受到限制。全球庫存水準較低，包括北美地區。此外，目前正發生重大計畫內和計畫外停電，而地緣政治問題和天然氣供應，尤其是在特立尼達，仍然是一個挑戰。新產能的投產也持續延期。

At the same time, we expect global demand to remain strong. India is likely to tender for urea in the near term, especially given the result of their most recent tender. Nitrogen demand in Brazil and Europe has picked up recently. And in North America, economics favor corn planting over soybeans next spring based on the December 2026 corn contract which is currently priced at approximately $4.70 per bushel.

同時，我們預計全球需求將保持強勁。鑑於印度最近一次招標的結果，印度很可能在近期內對尿素進行招標。近期，巴西和歐洲的氮需求回升。在北美，根據 2026 年 12 月的玉米合約（目前價格約為每蒲式耳 4.70 美元），經濟狀況表明明年春天種植玉米比種植大豆更有利。

Farmer economics across the globe remains a key focus as crop prices have not kept price up pace with the price of inputs, commitment, rent and other costs. That said, we believe nitrogen offers clear value for farmers relative to other nutrients for its immediate impact on yields. Given where crop prices are today, we expect farmers to focus on optimizing yield, which should support healthy nitrogen applications. We believe that the strong uptake of our UAN fill program and our robust fall ammonia program, and the order book that supports that outlook.

全球農民的經濟狀況仍是人們關注的焦點，因為農作物價格的成長速度跟不上投入價格、承諾成本、租金和其他成本的成長速度。也就是說，我們認為，與其他營養物質相比，氮肥對農民來說具有明顯的價值，因為它能立即提高產量。鑑於目前的農作物價格，我們預計農民將專注於優化產量，這將有助於健康地施用氮肥。我們相信，我們尿素硝銨溶液填充計畫的強勁需求、我們秋季氨水計畫的穩健發展，以及支撐這一前景的訂單量，都將推動我們取得良好業績。

We're also preparing for the implementation of the European Union's carbon border adjustment mechanism or CBAM, which takes effect in less than two months. While there remains some uncertainty about the final structure of these regulations, we feel very confident about our competitive position.

我們也正在為歐盟碳邊境調節機制（CBAM）的實施做準備，該機制將在不到兩個月的時間內生效。儘管這些法規的最終結構仍存在一些不確定性，但我們對自身的競爭地位非常有信心。

Thanks to our Donaldsonville CCS project, we have the largest certified low carbon ammonia volume in the world. And over the last few years, our team has put in a great deal of time to build relationships with customers including those will be affected by CBAM. This has enabled us to sell certified low-carbon ammonia at a premium to conventional ammonia today as customers begin to adapt their supply chains.

由於我們的唐納森維爾碳捕集與封存項目，我們擁有全球最大的經認證的低碳氨產量。在過去的幾年裡，我們的團隊投入了大量時間與客戶建立關係，包括那些將受到 CBAM 影響的客戶。隨著客戶開始調整其供應鏈，這使得我們能夠以高於傳統氨的價格出售經過認證的低碳氨。

Based on our conversation with customers, we also believe CBAM will drive significant demand for other low-carbon nitrogen products such as UAN. We see this as a tremendous opportunity for CF Industries on top of our already high-performing nitrogen business. We look forward to working with customers to build out a low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen derivatives supply chain.

根據我們與客戶的交流，我們也相信 CBAM 將帶動對其他低碳氮產品（如 UAN）的顯著需求。我們認為這對 CF Industries 而言是一個巨大的機遇，它將進一步鞏固我們原本就表現優異的氮氣業務。我們期待與客戶合作，建構低碳氨及氮衍生物供應鏈。

With that, I'll turn it over to Greg.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給格雷格。

Thanks, Bert. For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.1 billion, or $6.39 per diluted share. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were both approximately $2.1 billion. For the third quarter of 2025, we reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $353 million or $2.19 per diluted share. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were both approximately $670 million.

謝謝你，伯特。2025 年前九個月，該公司公佈歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤約為 11 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 6.39 美元。EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 均為約 21 億美元。2025 年第三季度，我們公佈歸屬於普通股股東的淨利為 3.53 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 2.19 美元。EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 均為約 6.7 億美元。

On a trailing 12-month basis, net cash from operations was $2.6 billion, and free cash flow was $1.7 billion. We continue to be efficient converters of EBITDA to free cash flow. Our free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate for this time period was 65%.

過去 12 個月，經營活動產生的淨現金為 26 億美元，自由現金流為 17 億美元。我們持續有效率地將 EBITDA 轉化為自由現金流。在此期間，我們的自由現金流量與調整後 EBITDA 的轉換率為 65%。

As you saw in the press release, we updated our projection for capital expenditures on our existing network to approximately $575 million for 2025. This reflects additional maintenance we were able to complete openly during planned outages as well as the timing of strategic investments that Chris mentioned this morning, and he spoke about it at our Investor Day in June.

正如您在新聞稿中看到的，我們將現有網路的資本支出預測更新為 2025 年約 5.75 億美元。這反映了我們在計劃停機期間能夠公開完成的額外維護工作，以及克里斯今天早上提到的戰略投資的時機，他在六月的投資者日上也談到了這一點。

We returned $445 million to shareholders in the third quarter of 2025 and approximately $1.3 billion for the first nine months. In October, we completed our 2022 share repurchase authorization, having repurchased 37.6 million shares, which represents 19% of the outstanding shares at the start of the program. Our share repurchase program continues to create strong value for long-term shareholders.

我們在 2025 年第三季向股東返還了 4.45 億美元，前九個月返還了約 13 億美元。10 月份，我們完成了 2022 年的股票回購授權，共回購了 3,760 萬股，佔該計劃開始時已發行股票總數的 19%。我們的股票回購計畫持續為長期股東創造巨大價值。

Net earnings increased approximately 18% compared to the first nine months of 2024, while earnings per share were approximately 31% higher reflecting our significantly lower share count. The same positive impact can be seen in our shareholders' participation in our production capacity and the free cash flow it generates.

與 2024 年前九個月相比，淨利潤增長了約 18%，而每股收益增長了約 31%，這反映出我們的股份數量大幅減少。股東參與我們的生產能力及其產生的自由現金流也產生了同樣的正面影響。

We are now executing the $2 billion share repurchase program authorized in 2025 with over $1.8 billion of cash on hand at the end of the third quarter. We are well positioned to continue returning substantial capital to our shareholders while also investing in growth through Blue Point and other strategic projects.

截至第三季末，我們手頭現金超過18億美元，目前正在執行2025年核准的20億美元股票回購計畫。我們有能力繼續為股東帶來豐厚的回報，同時透過 Blue Point 和其他策略項目投資於成長。

With that, Tony will provide some closing remarks before we open our call to Q&A.

接下來，東尼將作一些總結發言，之後我們將進入問答環節。

Thanks, Greg. For me, this is earnings conference call #48, and my very last one as is CEO of CF Industries. Over the past 12 years, traditionally at this point in the call is when I have thanked the entire CF Industries team for their hard work and contributions to our success. I'm internally grateful to the entire team, today may be more so than usual. And I am particularly aware of what an amazing team we have. So indeed, thank you all, said perhaps a bit more heartbeat than the past 47 times.

謝謝你，格雷格。對我來說，這是第 48 次財報電話會議，也是我擔任 CF Industries 執行長的最後一次財報電話會議。在過去 12 年裡，每次通話到這裡，我都會感謝 CF Industries 團隊的辛勤工作和為我們的成功所做的貢獻。我內心對整個團隊充滿感激，今天這種感激之情可能比平常更強烈。我尤其意識到我們擁有多麼優秀的團隊。所以，真的非常感謝大家，這句話的心跳可能比過去 47 次要快一些。

I'm exceptionally proud of the company and the organization I'm even. The highly ethical way in which we conduct ourselves are unwavering commitment to employee safety and our absolute focus on value creation. In addition to the entire CF team, I also want to thank our Board of Directors who have always been supportive of me, providing insight and guidance through the years and importantly, always aligned with me on the objective of value creation.

我為我所在的公司和組織感到無比自豪。我們秉持著高度道德的行事方式，堅定不移地致力於保障員工安全，並絕對專注於創造價值。除了整個 CF 團隊之外，我還要感謝我們的董事會，他們一直以來都非常支持我，多年來為我提供了真知灼見和指導，更重要的是，他們在創造價值的目標上始終與我保持一致。

I also want to particularly thank the CF senior leadership team, with whom it has been a truly great pressure to work alongside. I can honestly say this is the best group one could possibly hope for, and not only respect them as individuals, along with their business acumen, but I also thoroughly enjoy their company and our camaraderie.

我還要特別感謝CF的高階領導團隊，與他們共事確實壓力巨大。我可以毫不誇張地說，這是我所能期望的最好的團隊，我不僅尊重他們個人以及他們的商業才能，而且我也非常享受和他們在一起的時光以及我們之間的友誼。

Finally, I want to thank and congratulate Chris Bohn on being named CEO. Chris has been a consistent thought partner and double Advocate working with me as we navigated foundational decisions like the Terra acquisition, the sale of our phosphate business, the capacity expansion projects, our strategic repositioning of the company, the Waggaman acquisition and most recently, our Blue Point joint venture.

最後，我要感謝並祝賀克里斯·博恩被任命為執行長。克里斯一直是我堅定的思想夥伴和堅定的支持者，在我們共同應對諸如收購 Terra、出售磷酸鹽業務、產能擴張項目、公司戰略重新定位、收購 Waggaman 以及最近的 Blue Point 合資企業等基礎性決策時，他都給了我極大的幫助。

Chris has been hugely successful in leadership roles across the company, including heading FP&A, supply chain, manufacturing, CFO in his current role as COO. Chris has my complete faith and confidence that he will successfully lead the company to new heights. Again, thank you, and congrats.

Chris 在公司擔任過多個領導職務，都取得了巨大的成功，包括負責財務規劃與分析、供應鏈、製造、財務總監等，目前擔任首席營運長。我完全信任克里斯，相信他能夠帶領公司走向新的高峰。再次感謝，並恭喜你。

It has been some kind of a thrilling ride for me as CEO, an incredible honor and a very great privilege. We've accomplished many things over the years. As they say success as many parents and indeed, all of our successes were team efforts, and I'm delighted to say that the team remains in place. Therefore, I am steadfastly confident that the company's best years are in front of it.

對我而言，擔任執行長這段時間是一段激動人心的旅程，也是莫大的榮幸與殊榮。這些年來，我們取得了許多成就。正如許多家長所說，成功離不開團隊的努力，事實上，我們所有的成功都是團隊共同努力的結果，我很高興地說，這個團隊依然存在。因此，我堅信公司最好的時光還在後頭。

With that, operator, we will now open the call to your questions.

接線員，現在我們將開始回答您的問題。

Before Q&A, I want to take a moment to acknowledge Tony's retirement and his contribution to CF over his 18-year tenure. Tony's influence and impact on CF cannot be overstated. From his time leading manufacturing where we generated and champion, the do it right phrase is a core statement of CF's values and culture to his relentless pursuit of personal and process safety, CF has improved through his leadership. Tony's leadership, which can be best described as bias towards action.

在問答環節之前，我想花一點時間感謝托尼的退休以及他在 CF 任職 18 年間所做的貢獻。Tony 對 CF 的影響怎麼強調都不為過。從他領導製造業時期，我們制定並倡導「把事情做好」的理念，這已成為 CF 價值觀和文化的核心宣言；到他孜孜不倦地追求個人和流程安全，在他的領導下，CF 不斷進步。東尼的領導風格，最貼切的描述就是行動導向。

This has been exemplified through the growth the company has experienced under his guidance. Through the CHS transaction, Donaldsonville and Port Neal expansion projects, Waggaman acquisition to the recent announcement of the Blue Point joint venture, increasing CF ammonia production and free cash flow generating assets by 45% during his time as CEO and over 200% since he started at CF as a member of the senior leadership team.

這一點已透過公司在他的領導下所取得的成長得到充分體現。從 CHS 交易、唐納森維爾和尼爾港擴建項目、瓦格曼收購，到最近宣布成立藍點合資企業，在他擔任首席執行官期間，CF 的氨產量和自由現金流資產增長了 45%，自他作為高級領導團隊成員加入 CF 以來，增長了 200% 以上。

To safety-first mentality, team decision-making and focused on disciplined investments and execution disposition CF where we are today. Tremendous safety performance, industry-leading asset utilization and superior capital allocation. Over the years, he's not only been a great mentor, but also a great friend. I look forward to building on what Tony has established and wish him the best in his next act. Thank you, Tony.

秉持著安全第一的理念，團隊決策，專注於嚴謹的投資與執行，才成就了我們今天的成就。卓越的安全性能、業界領先的資產利用率和優異的資本配置。多年來，他不僅是我的良師益友，也是我的摯友。我期待在托尼已取得的成就基礎上繼續發展，並祝他在未來的發展中一切順利。謝謝你，托尼。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Theurer, Barclays.

（操作員說明）Ben Theurer，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First of all, Tony, all the best in retirement, I'm pretty sure you have plenty of things you want to do so enjoy that. And that's -- it was quite a run, I guess. So that's never bad. So enjoy that peace. And maybe as well for you, Chris, all the best on your new assignment as CEO.

早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。首先，東尼，祝你退休生活一切順利，我相信你有很多想做的事情，好好享受吧。我想，那真是一段相當精彩的旅程。所以這絕不是壞事。所以，好好享受這份寧靜吧。或許對你來說也是如此，克里斯，祝你擔任CEO的新職務一切順利。

So two quick questions I ask. So one, you've talked about in your presentation material about like how like the mid-cycle where you are right now in the mid-cycle where you think you're going to be in three, four years' time as you get like these additional projects come through. So I just want to understand, like the current market conditions obviously still seem to a degree stretched, right, with the European gas price somewhat elevated versus what maybe mid-cycle in the past was. So I wanted to get your view in terms of like the the bull versus the bear around that $2.5 billion mid-cycle mark, and how we should think about that evolving from a feed cost standpoint of view into the period of 2030? And then I have a very quick follow-up on pricing premiums.

所以我問兩個簡單的問題。所以，首先，你在演示材料中談到了你現在所處的周期中期，以及你認為三四年後，隨著這些額外項目的到來，你將處於怎樣的周期中期。所以我想了解的是，目前的市場狀況顯然仍然在某種程度上處於緊張狀態，對吧？歐洲天然氣價格與過去週期中期相比略高。所以我想聽聽您對25億美元中期週期點位的牛市與熊市的看法，以及從飼料成本的角度來看，我們應該如何看待這一點位在2030年之前的演變？然後，我還要快速補充一點關於保費定價的問題。

So I'll start. It's Greg. So clearly, today, right, when we built the $2.5 billion, we had a $3.50 gas strip in there for Henry Hub and a price -- realized price of urea at $3.85. As of today and through the year, we've obviously traded below that on the Henry Hub. So from a feedstock we've been benefiting in our results.

那我先來。是格雷格。所以很明顯，今天，當我們斥資25億美元建造亨利樞紐天然氣管道時，我們設定了每立方公尺3.50美元的天然氣價格，以及每立方公尺3.85美元的尿素實際價格。但截至目前以及今年以來，亨利樞紐的天然氣交易價格顯然低於這個水準。因此，我們從這種原料中受益匪淺，並且取得了不錯的成果。

And then lately, you've definitely seen a price move through the course of the year on the area. So from a results standpoint, hopefully, you're seeing that and appreciating that in the results that we've printed at $2.1 billion of EBITDA through the first three quarters.

而最近，你肯定會看到該地區的房價在這一年中有所波動。所以從業績的角度來看，希望您能從我們前三個季度公佈的 21 億美元 EBITDA 業績中看到並感受到這一點。

I think as you think about it going forward and the spread between what we see here in the US and in Europe, our view is that will there be some tightening there. We expect to have a competitive advantage and remain lower priced on a nominal basis as well a relative basis versus what we're seeing in European production, which is we continue to be a tailwind to us for our financial performance.

我認為，考慮到未來美國和歐洲的情況差異，我們認為那裡可能會出現一些收緊措施。我們預計我們將擁有競爭優勢，並且在名義價格和相對價格方面都保持較低水平，與歐洲的生產情況相比，這將繼續對我們的財務業績起到推動作用。

I mean, I guess it's a long way of saying, Ben, that we would agree with you the current conditions are well above mid-cycle and our expectation, just based on history of how fourth quarter paces against the other quarters should deliver full year results well above mid-cycle this year. And I think that's consistent with kind of what you said, industry conditions, gas price in Europe, kind of what's going on in terms of the energy space and overall demand. It does feel stronger than, I would say, mid-cycle, but we're delivering against it.

我的意思是，本，我這麼說其實是想表達我們同意你的觀點，目前的情況遠高於週期中期水平，而且根據以往第四季度與其他季度的對比情況來看，我們預計今年的全年業績將遠高於週期中期水平。我認為這和你剛才說的產業狀況、歐洲天然氣價格、能源領域和整體需求等方面的情況是一致的。感覺確實比周期中期要強，但我們正在努力克服困難。

And the only other point I would add is on the growth that Greg talked about going to the $3 billion, that is identified in motion being executed on today. So that is not things that are in the pipeline that is what we know today, and that will likely grow as time goes on as well.

我唯一要補充的是，格雷格提到的成長目標——30億美元——目前正在實施中。所以，這並非指正在籌備中的項目，而是指我們目前所知的項目，而且隨著時間的推移，這些項目可能會不斷發展壯大。

Okay. Got it. And then that price premium on the ammonia you're selling in Europe, the blue ammonia that you're getting out of Donaldsonvile. Can you give us a little sense of magnitude as to the premium that you're getting here with your customers?

好的。知道了。然後還有你在歐洲銷售的氨的溢價，也就是你從唐納森維爾獲得的藍色氨。您能否大致說明一下，您在這裡從客戶那裡獲得的溢價幅度有多大？

Sure. This is Bert. And we've been fairly consistent with our goals of as we build the supply, which has come on stream. And over time as we add additional locations and then Blue Point, we want to build correspondingly demand. And so we've been working very synergistically with our European customers, North African customers and even in the United States. So today, the premium is $20 to $25 per ton as demand grows, and we don't see the supply, we would anticipate that those will be matched on as demand grows. So very positive for CF.

當然。這是伯特。隨著供應量的增加，我們的目標也一直相當一致，目前供應量已經投入使用。隨著我們不斷增加新的地點，以及 Blue Point 的成立，我們希望能夠相應地建立需求。因此，我們一直與歐洲客戶、北非客戶甚至美國客戶進行著非常協同的合作。因此，如今溢價為每噸 20 至 25 美元，因為需求增長，而我們看不到供應，我們預計隨著需求增長，這些供應將會得到滿足。所以對囊性纖維化來說非常有利。

But again, Ben, that was never contemplated as being part of the economics when we went with a dehydration compression plant. So the cost of plant was just under $200 million. The 45Q benefit when we're sequestering at a rate of 2 million tons a year is going to be about $100 million of cash. And then we're adding another roughly almost 40-ish to 50 from product premium. So we're picking up an extra 50% EBITDA that was never initially part of the justification of that project. And so it's kind of nothing but goodness across the board in terms of our -- that project.

但是，本，我們當初選擇脫水壓縮設備時，從未考慮過經濟因素。因此，該工廠的成本略低於 2 億美元。如果我們以每年 200 萬噸的速度進行碳封存，那麼 45Q 帶來的收益將約為 1 億美元現金。然後我們還要從產品溢價中增加約 40 到 50。因此，我們額外獲得了 50% 的 EBITDA，而這原本並不在該專案最初的論證範圍內。所以就我們的這個專案而言，各方面都非常順利。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

埃德蘭·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Again, I mean, Tony, clearly you will be missed. That's clearly the case and good luck with everything.

謝謝大家，大家早安。再說一遍，托尼，我們肯定會想念你的。情況確實如此，祝你一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So quick question, again, maybe for you, Tony and maybe for Bert. In terms of -- I mean, as you noted, the nitrogen outlook looks very constructive. But if you were to dig in for possible boogie man in terms of trying to find something to worry about in the near or medium terms, like where would you look?

那麼，再問一個問題，也許是問你，東尼，也許是問伯特。就氮元素而言——我的意思是，正如你所指出的，氮元素的前景看起來非常樂觀。但如果你真的要深入挖掘，尋找近期或中期內值得擔憂的事情，你會從哪裡入手呢？

Well, actually, we do every day, assess the forward market, the spot market, the prop market and where we try to be constructive in terms of how we build our order book and thinking about the customer base. That's why we're broad-based in terms of ag business, industrial business, export business, and we're levering those along with our terminaling activity, how do we enter and exit the market and play the market.

實際上，我們每天都會評估遠期市場、現貨市場和自營市場，並努力在建立訂單簿和思考客戶群方面做出建設性的努力。這就是為什麼我們在農業、工業、出口業務方面基礎廣泛，並且我們正在利用這些業務以及我們的碼頭運輸活動，來決定我們如何進入和退出市場以及如何參與市場。

But when you look at the market today, then it's a global market, you're seeing a constrained supply and that happened through the global complex as well as plants coming offline in Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, and a few other places in gas limitations in Trinidad, high-cost gas in Europe and not a lot of new capacity coming online in low-cost areas. So constructively, supply is, I would say, consistent on a limited basis, while demand continues to grow at about 1% to 2% per year. And we're seeing very healthy demand in India, Brazil, North America, and we plan to continue with that level of demand.

但如果你看看今天的市場，你會發現這是一個全球市場，供應受到限制，這是由於全球一體化進程以及沙烏地阿拉伯、孟加拉和其他一些地方的工廠停產、特立尼達的天然氣供應受限、歐洲天然氣成本高昂，以及低成本地區沒有太多新的產能投入使用等原因造成的。因此，從建設性的角度來看，我認為供應在一定程度上保持穩定，而需求則繼續以每年約 1% 至 2% 的速度成長。我們看到印度、巴西、北美等地的需求非常旺盛，我們計劃繼續保持這種需求水準。

And so -- when I look at the negatives, I think what -- it's -- from your side, it's always yes, but, yes, but this is going to be negative. And we've been hearing about China for 10 years. We've been hearing about other issues for years, and we continue to outperform in the market. So looking at the negative, I would say I like the current market. I think the current market is going to extend into 2026 as far as we give a viewpoint.

所以——當我看到負面因素時，我想——從你的角度來看，總是「是的，但是，是的，但這將是負面的」。我們已經聽聞中國十年了。多年來我們一直聽到各種負面消息，但我們在市場上的表現仍然優於其他公司。所以從負面因素來看，我認為我比較看好目前的市場。我認為，就我們目前的觀點來看，目前的市場狀況將會持續到2026年。

But China's demand internally to consume the tons they produce is pretty well tied to that. So there's 4 million tons of exports that we see coming out in 2025 is probably needed. And then India hasn't performed on their production internally. They've been importing consistently high levels of urea and Brazil continues to grow. So I have a hard time finding a negative boogie man out there.

但中國國內對自身所生產噸數的消費需求與此密切相關。因此，我們預計到 2025 年將需要 400 萬噸的出口量。而且印度國內的生產能力也沒有達到預期。他們一直大量進口尿素，而巴西的尿素進口量也持續成長。所以我很難找到一個負面的、令人恐懼的「惡魔」。

See, I was -- Edlain going to give you a little more flip in the answer. I was going to say, all you have to do is read some of your other colleagues out there in the industry, you'll get kind of where the booking assets, even though we don't really believe a lot of that is accurate.

你看，我本來——艾德蘭打算在回答中給你一個更輕鬆的答案。我本來想說，你只需要看看業內其他同行的文章，你就會明白預訂資產的情況，儘管我們並不認為其中很多內容是準確的。

So one quick follow-up for you, and this is for Tony and Chris. I mean, Tony, you've talked about the valuation disconnect in your shares. Clearly, I guess like you failed to convince those jetted investors. Like what else do you think increase in cans that to? What else do you think you will need to do to convince investors of that valuation gap that you're clearly seeing?

最後還有一個後續問題，這個問題是問東尼和克里斯的問題。東尼，你之前也談到你公司股票的估值與實際情況不符的問題。顯然，我猜你沒能說服那些搭乘私人飛機的投資者。你覺得除了這些，罐頭食品還會增加什麼？你認為還需要做些什麼才能讓投資人相信你清楚看到的估值差距？

I mean we did a European roadshow this summer or this fall and talk to investors over there. And -- but there was a little bit of kind of not understanding why the valuation was what it was. But also, there was also, frankly, a little bit of just we trade you as part of this broader group of other companies. And when there's a lot of automated trading going on, and there's something that effect, like I said, either the ag sector, or something else, all of the companies kind of move. And I think there just isn't a recognition that we're -- our financials are very different from most of the companies in that sector.

我的意思是，我們今年夏天或秋天在歐洲進行了一次路演，並與那邊的投資者進行了洽談。但是——但當時人們有點不懂為什麼估值會是這樣。但坦白說，也有一點就是，我們只是把你當作這個更大的公司集團的一部分來進行交易。當大量自動化交易發生時，就像我剛才說的，如果某些因素對農業部門或其他領域產生影響，那麼所有公司都會受到影響。我認為大家還沒有意識到，我們的財務狀況與該行業的大多數公司非常不同。

And I think at some point, when there are a few enough shares out, we'll start getting a realistic valuation against what's remaining. And I think, unfortunately, we're generating enough cash and the shares are such a screaming value that I think continue just to buy shares out of the market is the way we can eventually get there.

我認為，當流通股數量足夠多的時候，我們就能對剩餘股份進行合理的估值。我認為，不幸的是，我們產生的現金足夠多，而且股票的價值非常高，所以我認為繼續從市場上買入股票是我們最終實現目標的方式。

And the only thing I would add to that is when you ask what should we do is it's to continue to do what we are doing. We have exceptional operational performance focused on safety and a conversion to free cash flow that I think we, as a company, reflect on more than anybody else that I see both in the chemical and the Agora really all industries. And so at some point, that has to resonate with people. Cash is king and whether it's buying back shares, as Tony said, or making high-growth investments that have great return profiles it will pay off at some point. So it's continuing to execute the way we're executing.

我唯一要補充的是，當你們問我們應該做什麼時，我的回答是繼續做我們正在做的事情。我們擁有卓越的營運績效，專注於安全和自由現金流的轉化，我認為我們公司在這方面比我在化學和Agora等所有行業中看到的任何其他公司都做得更好。所以，在某種程度上，這必然會引起人們的共鳴。現金為王，無論是像東尼說的回購股票，或是進行高成長、高報酬的投資，總有一天都會有回報的。所以它將繼續按照我們目前的方式執行。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

Good morning. Tony, congrats again. A couple of questions. If you brought forward $75 million of maintenance CapEx this year, does that mean that next year, you should be run rating $425 million CapEx on your like non-Blue Point network?

早安.托尼，再次恭喜你。幾個問題。如果你今年提前投入了 7,500 萬美元的維護資本支出，這是否意味著明年你應該在類似的非 Blue Point 網路上投入 4.25 億美元的資本支出？

Joel, I'll start with that and then if anybody needs to add something. But that increase, we were probably a little light on the $500 million. Generally, we start the year running at about $550 million is kind of the range we're performing in is really affected by three things.

喬爾，我先說這個，然後如果有人需要補充什麼的話。但那次成長，我們可能比 5 億美元的目標略低了一些。通常情況下，我們年初的業績在 5.5 億美元左右，而我們目前的業績水準主要受以下三個因素影響。

One, we completed more projects than we typically do at this time. There's a lot more, I would say, smaller dollar projects that are easier to finish during this particular time frame. And then we also -- part of it was a into nitric acid precious metal purchase, which was quite a bit that we do from time to time. And then we had -- to be honest, slightly higher labor and capital costs related to some of the inflation by a few percentage points than what we had been forecasting. So as I look at 2026, I would still use the $550 million as our range going forward for sort of, let's call it, our base CapEx and then adding CF's component of Blue Point on top of that.

第一，我們完成的專案比往常這個時候要多。我認為，在這個特定的時間段內，還有很多金額較小的項目更容易完成。此外，我們也——其中一部分是購買硝酸貴金屬，這是我們時不時會做的相當多的事情。坦白說，由於通貨膨脹，我們的勞動力和資本成本比我們預測的略高幾個百分點。因此，展望 2026 年，我仍然會以 5.5 億美元作為我們未來的預算範圍，姑且稱之為我們的基本資本支出，然後再在此基礎上加上 CF 在 Blue Point 中的部分。

Okay. And I know it's early, it's very early and it's great that no significant injuries, but do you know if what's happening at Yazoo City, is this going to be an outage that order of magnitude days, weeks or months?

好的。我知道現在還為時過早，確實還很早，而且沒有造成重大傷亡固然是好事，但是你知道亞祖城發生的停電會持續幾天、幾週還是幾個月嗎？

Yeah, it's way too early to speculate on that. I would say the ammonia plant was not directly affected it's still operating as of this morning. But at some point, you run into inventory containments depending upon how long the upgrades are down. So we're thankful that everyone is accounted for and is safe and that really, there is only just a couple of very minor injuries, nothing serious or significant. That was our biggest concern and then also that there is -- the site has been secured.

是的，現在就此推測還為時過早。我認為氨廠沒有受到直接影響，截至今天早上仍在運作。但到某個時候，你會遇到庫存積壓的問題，這取決於升級中斷的時間長短。所以，我們很慶幸所有人都平安無事，而且真的只有幾起非常輕微的傷情，沒有什麼嚴重或重大的傷情。那是我們最擔心的事，而且現在網站已經安全了。

Now we're in the process of kind of really understanding what the condition of things are and what the root cause was, and then we'll start worrying about turning things on after we do a thorough investigation. I would say, Joel, that this is a molten and a relatively small plant in our smallest segment. So we're not focused on kind of potential financial implications at this time. And as Chris said, we're still expecting to be able to produce the 10 million tons of ammonia this year like we had planned on.

現在我們正在努力了解事情的現狀和根本原因，之後我們會進行徹底的調查，然後再考慮如何啟動相關程序。喬爾，我想說，這是我們最小部門裡一個熔化的、相對較小的工廠。所以，我們目前並不關注潛在的財務影響。正如克里斯所說，我們仍然預計今年能夠像計劃的那樣生產 1000 萬噸氨。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Tony, I'm not going to always say like say, great quarter, but I'll give you a shout out, and I'll say great 12 years. And through all the debates agreements and at times disagreements, you've always challenged me. So I'd like to personally thank you for that.

東尼，我不會總是說“很棒的季度”，但我會公開表揚你，我會說“很棒的12年”。在所有辯論、達成共識、有時出現分歧的過程中，你始終在挑戰我。所以我想親自感謝你。

Thank you for that.

謝謝。

It's been a pleasure. The question to both you and Bert. There's been -- and it shows you (inaudible). There's been a lot of inconsistency of supply throughout the entirety of this year. And you have things in Russia, Germany, Poland, Romania. I mean, perhaps this becomes a broader interview to longer-term question, but how much of the demand and the price strength do you attribute to the supply side of it versus the fact that demand, I think, broadly speaking, throughout the year-to-date, has also been pretty healthy and kind of led to these price rallies at times at non-seasonal time. So I really appreciate your perspectives and kind of how to think about '26 in the context of what we've actually been seeing experience -- what we've been experiencing in 2025. Thank you.

非常榮幸。這個問題要問你和伯特。確實存在過這種情況——而且它表明了這一點（聽不清楚）今年以來，供應一直很不穩定。俄羅斯、德國、波蘭、羅馬尼亞也有一些這樣的地方。我的意思是，這或許會演變成一個更廣泛的訪談，一個更長期的問題，但您認為需求和價格強勢有多少是供應方面的因素造成的，又有多少是需求方面的因素造成的呢？我認為，總的來說，今年迄今為止，需求也相當健康，而且在某些時候，即使在非季節性時期，需求也導致了這些價格上漲。所以我非常感謝您提出的觀點，以及如何結合我們實際經歷的情況——也就是我們在 2025 年所經歷的情況——來思考 2026 年。謝謝。

I think the demand piece of the equation is much easier to forecast going forward. And as Bert said earlier, given where where the different products are priced at and the corn-to-bean ratio and just looking at what we saw in the way of the UAN fill program as well as fall application of ammonia that's going on right now. We're anticipating that to be on side of the equation to be very strong for the planting year of '26.

我認為未來需求部分的預測要容易得多。正如伯特之前所說，考慮到不同產品的定價以及玉米與大豆的比例，再看看我們在尿素硝銨溶液填充計劃以及目前正在進行的秋季氨施用方面所看到的情況。我們預計，在 2026 年的種植年份，這一因素將非常有利。

The supply side is a little harder to kind of peel back. And as you said, it's an integrated kind of question in terms of how much it is the ask, and how much of it is the [D] I would say a lot of the places that you mentioned, not so much Russia and Iran, but a lot of the places that you mentioned where there was some supply disruption are on the relatively higher end of the cost curve. So those tons don't necessarily move things dramatically up in terms of price.

供應方的情況比較難理。正如你所說，這是一個綜合性的問題，涉及到需求量有多大，以及[D] 有多少。我想說，你提到的很多地方，不只是俄羅斯和伊朗，而是你提到的許多出現供應中斷的地方，都處於成本曲線的相對較高的一端。所以這些噸位不一定會大幅推高價格。

But there's no doubt the conditions that we saw this year due to both the (inaudible) and the [D] side we're quite strong, and that's why our anticipation is delivering a result that's well above what our mid-cycle numbers. When Greg talked about it at Investor Day, what he gave, we expect to be well above that.

但毫無疑問，由於我們今年在進攻和防守兩方面都表現出色，所以我們今年的預期成績遠高於我們賽季中期的預期。格雷格在投資者日上談到的金額，我們預期實際到手的金額會遠高於這個數字。

I think for CF in particular, how we view the world and being students of the world geopolitically economically and systematically, and how it affects our business. Tony touched on this specific, but we did lose 5 million tons from the market through the complex for Iran and Egypt, Algeria and some in Russia and Turkmenistan. And then I think the lack of China or the late coming in of China in June, probably pushed the market higher than anticipated. But we're still tight.

我認為對CF來說，尤其重要的是我們如何看待世界，如何從地緣政治、經濟和系統的角度研究世界，以及這如何影響我們的業務。東尼也提到了這一點，但我們確實透過該綜合體從市場上損失了 500 萬噸產品，這些產品銷往伊朗、埃及、阿爾及利亞以及俄羅斯和土庫曼斯坦。我認為，中國市場的缺席或中國市場在6月姍姍來遲，可能推高了市場，使其高於預期。但我們關係依然很親密。

And like Tony articulated in terms of demand with India pulling 8 million to 9 million tons, Brazil 7 million to 8 million tons, North America, 6 million tons and Europe producing less and not having the access and the lack of inventory in any major destination market sets up 2026, I think, very well. And we're going to see, I think, higher-than-anticipated corn acres in North America due to just the economic opportunities and impacts, which is constructive for CF.

正如托尼所闡述的那樣，就需求而言，印度需要 800 萬至 900 萬噸，巴西需要 700 萬至 800 萬噸，北美需要 600 萬噸，而歐洲產量較低，且無法進入任何主要目的地市場，庫存不足，我認為，這為 2026 年的形勢奠定了非常好的基礎。我認為，由於經濟機會和影響，北美玉米種植面積將高於預期，這對CF來說是有利的。

Got it. And just as a quick follow-up. I mean, Tony, you've gone through your fair share of capacity expansions, both actually say very large brownfields and other brownfields and everything with your network, what have you, Bert and Chris, learned the most from all of those efforts over the last 12 or so years that Chris and his team can essentially apply to Blue Point to perhaps mitigate a lot of the things? Is there kind of a track record of lessons that you can really apply here, or is it just going to be every project is different at the end of the day?

知道了。最後再補充一點。我的意思是，托尼，你經歷了相當多的容量擴張，實際上包括非常大的棕地和其他棕地以及你的網絡的所有方面，在過去的 12 年左右的時間裡，你、伯特和克里斯從所有這些努力中學到了什麼？克里斯和他的團隊可以把這些經驗應用到 Blue Point，以緩解很多問題嗎？是否有一些可以藉鏡的經驗教訓，還是說最終每個專案都是不同的？

I would say we learned a ton that is currently in direct application of this project, one of which was we did a full-blown FEED study and detailed engineering of this plant before we announced it went to FID. And so we have a much better perspective of the actual construction hours and the unit build material list than we did when we announced the expansion projects back in 2012.

我想說，我們從這個專案中學到了很多東西，目前這些知識都直接應用到這個專案中。其中之一是，在宣布該項目進入最終投資決策階段之前，我們對該工廠進行了全面的 FEED 研究和詳細的工程設計。因此，與 2012 年宣布擴建工程時相比，我們現在對實際施工時間和單元建造材料清單有了更清晰的了解。

The other thing I would say is the size of our network and the expertise we have across the network and the scale we have brings tremendous skill sets and capabilities to bear against a project like this. And you see that when you're looking at other people that are trying to start up ammonia plants that are years late because they just don't have the capability and expertise running ammonia. And there are a few of those out there right now.

我還要補充一點，我們網路的規模、我們在整個網路中擁有的專業知識以及我們所擁有的規模，都為像這樣的專案帶來了巨大的技能和能力。當你看到其他一些試圖啟動氨廠的人，他們因為缺乏運作氨廠的能力和專業知識而導致計畫延期數年時，你就會明白這一點。現在市面上就有一些這樣的產品。

And so I think both the fact that a number of the people involved in this construction project were also involved in the big part diesel expansions in 2012 through '16. And as well as just some of the broader lessons like the engineering and FEED study, I feel very confident in this. And we also have expertise from our partners that we're going to be able to leverage as well with JERA and Mitsui that are equally, if not even more so, comfortable doing very, very large capital projects like this, and they're bringing some of their best resources to bear as well.

因此，我認為，參與這個建設項目的許多人也參與了 2012 年至 2016 年的大型柴油擴建項目，這兩者之間是有聯繫的。除了工程和 FEED 研究等一些更廣泛的經驗教訓之外，我對這一點非常有信心。此外，我們還有來自合作夥伴的專業知識，我們可以利用這些知識，例如 JERA 和三井物產，它們同樣擅長甚至更擅長開展像這樣的大型資本項目，並且它們也投入了一些最好的資源。

I would say as Chris said in his comments, Tony, being bold and -- but that boldness is based on market knowledge, understanding. We've looked at plants all around the world. We've looked at a lot of opportunities over the years. We've had some great debates and discussions and disagreements at times on where to go and how to grow. But in the end, have made some very good decisions on that. And Blue Point is a good example.

正如克里斯在他的評論中所說，托尼的大膽是建立在對市場的了解和理解之上的。我們考察了世界各地的植物。這些年來，我們考察過很多機會。我們曾就未來的發展方向和發展方式進行過許多精彩的辯論和討論，也曾有過分歧。但最終，我在那件事上做出了一些非常明智的決定。藍點就是一個很好的例子。

We're the company that does it right, build stays within I think, our fairway and brings these plants on safely, and they operate above nameplate. And so it's that bold step of taking it and when the market is growing and needs these tons.

我們是一家做事認真負責的公司，我認為，我們的建設始終在正軌上，安全地引進這些工廠，而且它們的運作效率遠超預期。因此，正是這項大膽的舉措，在市場不斷成長且需要這些噸貨物的時候，才促成了這項舉措。

And the only thing I would add is that's different from last time, Chris, as we've talked about before is we're going with modular construction last time on a stick build time and material, you started to see labor costs get out of control. So I think that was something that we did a lot of evaluation on and also looking at who we're going to select to build those modules.

我唯一要補充的是，克里斯，這和上次不一樣，正如我們之前討論過的，上次我們採用的是模組化建造，而上次採用的是傳統的現場建造，時間和材料方面，人工成本開始失控。所以我覺得我們在這方面做了很多評估，也考慮了我們要選擇誰來建造這些模組。

And then lastly, something that we'll do that we did last time that the whole team is working on, which is we begin hiring operators and engineers today even though the plant will not be up for 4.5, 5 years or whatever. And what that allowed us last time was to get to over nameplate production within a couple of months after start-up, which nobody else was able to do. So again, as Tony said, leveraging our overall network, not just for engineering expertise, but to train operators and other individuals that will be working at these sites.

最後，我們還要做一件上次我們做過的事情，也是整個團隊正在努力做的事情，那就是我們今天就開始招募操作員和工程師，即使工廠要4.5年、5年甚至更長時間才能投入使用。而這讓我們上次得以在啟動後的幾個月內實現超過銘牌產量，這是其他任何人都無法做到的。所以，正如托尼所說，我們要利用我們的整個網絡，不僅是為了工程技術專長，也是為了培訓將在這些地點工作的操作員和其他人員。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

Andrew Wong，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Good morning. Just echoing everybody else's comments, Tony, congratulations on a very successful career in guiding CF for a lot of market ups and downs. We've seen a lot. So enjoy your next chapter.

早安.東尼，我同意大家的看法，祝賀你在指導CF經歷了市場起伏的過程中取得了非常成功的職業生涯。我們已經見識很多了。盡情享受你的下一篇章。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And so just maybe on the comments you made earlier around the valuation. I think you made some very fair points. So maybe a question for you and also for Chris, just given the value in shares and buybacks seem to be the path to kind of realize that value. You have a very strong balance sheet. Would there be any consideration for using debt to fund point and then maybe using the cash flows and cash generation to buy back shares that would not make more sense right now?

所以，也許可以就您之前關於估值的評論做些回應。我認為你提出的觀點非常中肯。所以，也許我想問你，也想問克里斯一個問題，鑑於股票的價值，股票回購似乎是實現這種價值的途徑。貴公司的資產負債表非常穩健。是否有可能考慮使用債務融資來籌集資金，然後利用現金流和現金流回購目前看來不太合理的股票？

I mean, I think the problem with doing that a little bit, Andrew, is it's sort of a onetime sort of benefit that you get, and then you're living with much higher fixed costs as you go. And I think one of the things that we've seen in this business is having a balance sheet with low fixed cost and a lot of liquidity gives us opportunities to move when there's things that are available to us like the Waggaman deal, which we did in cash.

我的意思是，安德魯，我認為這樣做的問題在於，這只是一次性的好處，之後你就會面臨更高的固定成本。我認為我們在這個行業看到的一點是，擁有低固定成本和高流動性的資產負債表，可以讓我們在有機會的時候採取行動，例如我們用現金完成的 Waggaman 交易。

And so instead of this being a kind of trying to rush an equity swap for debt, which benefits kind of near-term shareholders, we're really playing the long game here, and it's about trying to make sure that we retain all of the long-term operating and strategic flexibility. And at the same time, rewarding the truly long-term shareholders who eventually, I think, will start valuing the company properly. But in my perspective, I'm not going to be here in a couple of months. So this is probably -- Chris and Greg could talk about that.

因此，我們並沒有急於用股權換取債務（這有利於短期股東），而是著眼於長遠，力求確保我們保留所有長期的營運和策略靈活性。同時，也要回報那些真正長期持有公司股份的股東，我認為他們最終會開始正確評估公司的價值。但依我看來，幾個月後我就不會在這裡了。所以這可能是——克里斯和格雷格可以談談這件事。

From my perspective, well, just for starters, I think the numbers that Greg presented and where we're seeing this year, where we're seeing next year and even the mid-cycle, we're going to have enough cash to do both at a significant level just as we've done over the last decade under Tony, where we've been able to grow and also do significant share repurchases. So the ability to do both, I would echo Tony's comments like having fixed charges in line having a, I would say, flexible balance sheet is very important when you're in a commodity business. As we're seeing more of our business here, go to ratable, more industrial with premiums and things we can make different decisions from there. But I think the cash flow that we're generating due to the conversion rate that we do allows us to do whatever we want to do really.

從我的角度來看，首先，我認為格雷格提出的數字，以及我們今年、明年甚至中期的預期，我們將擁有足夠的現金，像過去十年在托尼的領導下那樣，在相當大的規模上同時開展這兩項業務，我們既實現了增長，也進行了大量的股票回購。因此，能夠同時做到這兩點，我同意托尼的觀點，例如擁有固定費用和靈活的資產負債表，對於從事大宗商品業務的人來說非常重要。隨著我們業務的不斷拓展，我們開始轉向可計稅、更具工業性質的業務，並考慮保費等因素，我們可以據此做出不同的決策。但我認為，我們目前的轉換率所帶來的現金流，使我們能夠真正做任何我們想做的事情。

The only thing I would add to it is just emphasize the numbers that we talked about today, right? $1.3 billion of cash back to the shareholders for the first three months, $700 million in CapEx, so $2 billion, and we have $1.8 billion of cash on hand today. That creates incredible flexibility for the company.

我唯一要補充的是，要強調一下我們今天討論的那些數字，對吧？前三個月向股東返還了 13 億美元現金，資本支出 7 億美元，共 20 億美元，目前我們手上有 18 億美元現金。這為公司創造了極大的靈活性。

Okay. Understood. And then maybe just one on costs. I think SG&A looked still just a little bit elevated for the quarter, obviously, not hugely, but just curious if there's anything there. And then also on just some of the non-gas costs, I suspect that the turnaround in the quarter contributed to some of that. Just wondering if there's anything to flag or anything...

好的。明白了。然後或許可以單獨討論一下成本問題。我認為本季的銷售、管理及行政費用看起來仍然略微偏高，當然，偏高幅度不大，但我只是好奇是否有什麼問題。此外，我認為本季業績好轉也對部分非天然氣成本的增加起了一定作用。只是想問有沒有什麼需要特別注意的地方…

Yeah, and -- it's Greg. On the SG&A side, we continue to just update our bonus accrual for the company for the year, and that was a small catch-up as well as plan for the third. So that's the elevated level on the SG&A.

是的，而且──他是格雷格。在銷售、一般及行政費用方面，我們繼續更新公司本年度的獎金計提，這也是對第三季度的一個小小調整和計劃。這就是銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）的較高水準。

On the non-gas side of production cost really, the one-one that stuck out to me as I climbed through him was really around ammonia. And in that segment and the point to make there is we did have an increased mix around our purchase tons, which obviously come into the system at a higher value than what we can produce them that, but it also contributed to gross margin dollars in the ammonia segment being up 30% year over year. So other than that and the timing of some turnarounds to the was really nothing to speak of in the non-production cost...

在生產成本的非氣體方面，我在深入了解他的過程中，我最讓我印象深刻的是氨。在該領域，需要指出的是，我們的採購噸位組合有所增加，這些噸位顯然以高於我們自身生產能力的價值進入系統，但也促使氨業務的毛利同比增長了 30%。所以除了這些以及一些週轉時間上的調整之外，非生產成本方面真的沒什麼好說的…

And at the purchase front, just to remind you, the tons that are produced in Trinidad, we purchase, and we realize the value in Trinidad and then that comes through equity earnings instead of directly into the ammonia segment. And then into the UK, we're purchasing ammonia and then upgrading it to a margin. And then that's going to come through kind of our other op segment. But the price, because we're buying it at market shows up in COGS for ammonia. So that kind of helps dimensionalize what Greg was talking about.

在採購方面，提醒一下，我們在特立尼達生產的噸氨，我們採購後在特立尼達實現其價值，然後這部分價值會透過股權收益實現，而不是直接進入氨業務領域。然後我們進入英國市場，購買氨，然後對其進行升級改造以獲取利潤。然後，這將透過我們的另一個營運環節來呈現。但是，由於我們是從市場上購買的，所以價格會反映在氨的銷售成本中。這樣有助於我們更全面地理解格雷格所說的內容。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

Good morning. Thanks for the question. I do want to start with a more strategic long view here just given some of the prepared remarks of the valuation disconnect. And given your comments on whether it's CBAM, where the Blue Point ammonia tons will go. Even some of your comments on (inaudible) help us understand, if we're looking at this business model in that 2030 framework, how much exposure really is ag more versus some of these more industrial applications? And how should we think about that mix contributing to that sort of mid-cycle framework?

早安.謝謝你的提問。鑑於先前提到的估值脫節問題，我想先從更具策略性的長遠角度來談談這個問題。鑑於你對是否是 CBAM 的評論，Blue Point 的氨噸將流向何處。即使是您對（聽不清楚）的一些評論也能幫助我們理解，如果我們從 2030 年的框架來看待這種商業模式，農業領域相對於一些更偏工業的應用究竟有多大的風險敞口？我們該如何看待這種組合對中期週期框架的影響？

Yes. I mean, ag is still going to represent the lion's share for the foreseeable future of where we sell our products. And the simple reason for that, Kristen, is that the margins in ag are far superior to the margins in Industrial. We could move all of our products into the industrial marketplace, which tends to be ratable. And then -- but we would end up doing it at a significantly lower price point, and we wouldn't get the benefit of our distribution and logistics network by doing so.

是的。我的意思是，在可預見的未來，農業仍將佔據我們產品銷售市場的大部分份額。克莉絲汀，原因很簡單，農業的利潤率遠高於工業的利潤率。我們可以把所有產品轉移到工業市場，工業市場的產品往往是可以評級的。然後——但最終我們會以更低的價格做到這一點，而且這樣做我們也無法利用我們的分銷和物流網絡。

And so some of the -- even though it is kind of a little bit less predictable, it's at a lot higher volatility. And I'm going to refer back to, I think, a sort of something I've heard attributed to Warren Buffet, which is -- give me a 15% spiky return over a 10% flat. We'd way rather have a psyche to the upside return profile associated with serving the ag marketplace than we would the other way.

因此，儘管有些方面不太可預測，但波動性卻要高得多。我想再次提及我曾聽人提到的沃倫·巴菲特的一句話，那就是——給我 15% 的峰值回報，而不是 10% 的平穩回報。我們寧願對服務農業市場所帶來的潛在回報抱持正面心態，也不願對農業市場帶來的回報抱持負面心態。

Now we're starting to build some and that will continue to increase that does tend to be a little more ratable with predictable margin structures. But we're going to be -- we're 75%, 80% in the ag company today, and it's going to be like that for a very long time.

現在我們開始建造一些，而且建造數量還會繼續增加，這往往更容易獲得可預測的利潤率結構。但我們現在有 75% 到 80% 的股份在農業領域，而且這種情況還會持續很久。

I think you have to also think about how our company is structured with our unique distribution terminaling assets that are throughout the Midwest on the best farmland in the world with the lowest cost access logistically. If you compare our cost to get to the middle of Iowa for, let's say, $30 for urea against taking that to (inaudible) from, I don't know, Managua Santos, it's significantly cheaper and the yields are significantly better and the farmer economics better as well. On top of, we have low-cost gas in those regions so we are structured to serve the ag business, which, as Tony mentioned, is spiky but profitable, but we balance that with this industrial book and export book that places us in, I think, globally, a very unique position, and we're benefiting from that.

我認為你還需要考慮我們公司的結構，我們獨特的配送終端資產遍布美國中西部，位於世界上最好的農田上，物流成本最低。如果比較一下從愛荷華州中部運送尿素的成本（比如說，30 美元），和從馬那瓜桑托斯（聽不清楚）運送尿素的成本，就會發現前者明顯更便宜，產量也明顯更高，農民的經濟效益也更好。此外，這些地區的天然氣成本低廉，因此我們的業務結構旨在服務農業業務。正如托尼所提到的，農業業務波動較大但利潤豐厚，但我們透過工業業務和出口業務來平衡農業業務，這使我們在全球範圍內處於一個非常獨特的地位，我們也從中受益匪淺。

Sure. Appreciate that. Perhaps a little clarification on my side. I'm not saying that there's some major move out of the ag market. It's more just how much more meaningful can the earnings potential be on the industrial side, given the uplift of some of these markets. So perhaps a slight clarification there.

當然。謝謝。或許我需要稍作澄清。我並不是說人們正在大規模撤離農業市場。更重要的是，考慮到某些市場的回暖，工業領域的獲利潛力究竟能提升多少。所以或許需要稍作澄清。

And while I'm here, I'll just ask my follow-up question. Just given the cost curve in China, a little bit more affordable to keep those a little bit more domestic affordability. So just any thoughts on China exports in 2026? Thank you.

既然來了，我就再問一個後續問題吧。考慮到中國的成本曲線，價格要更實惠一些，才能讓國內消費者更容易負擔。那麼，大家對2026年中國出口有什麼看法呢？謝謝。

We've been fairly consistent regarding China in that 3 million- to 5 million-ton range, and that's how they seem to perform. We're expecting them in 2025 to be in the 4 million- to 4.5 million-ton range. And they've announced the additional export quota. They haven't announced their program for 2026, but I would just bet on the same, probably coming out in some time in Q2 with exports, May, June, exporting into the early part of because their domestic market is so big, their domestic demand, both aggregate, industrial and where they are capacity-wise and operationally, that into 3 million to 5 million tons of exports make sense as you build kind of what their structure should be.

我們對中國的產量一直持相當一致的看法，認為其產量在 300 萬至 500 萬噸之間，而他們的實際產量似乎也確實如此。我們預計到 2025 年，它們的產量將達到 400 萬至 450 萬噸。他們已經宣布了額外的出口配額。他們還沒有公佈 2026 年的計劃，但我敢打賭，計劃可能在第二季度某個時候公佈，出口量可能在 5 月、6 月，甚至可能在年初就開始出口，因為他們的國內市場非常龐大，國內需求，無論是總體需求、工業需求還是他們目前的產能和運營能力，都足以支撐 300 萬到 500 萬噸的出口量，這符合他們的出口結構。

Kris, I'll just add one thing back to your first question. If you think about the 45Q tax credit associated with both D'ville and Yazoo City that comes online, we'll probably be close to $150 million of cash, and that's not net of Texas and everything that is not dependent upon where market pricing is for any of our products. Between what Bert is able to realize price premium and some of the other initiatives we have like selling carbon credits, there could be another $25 million to $50 million of additional value that accrues to us that is also not tied to the market. So you're starting to get to a point where there's probably could be $200 million-ish a year that's coming in that is very ratable and predictable and just part of the base then that everything else kind of rides above.

克里斯，我只想補充一點關於你第一個問題的內容。如果考慮到迪斯維爾和亞祖城即將上線的 45Q 稅收抵免，我們可能會獲得接近 1.5 億美元的現金，而且這還不包括德州的稅款以及所有與我們產品市場價格無關的款項。伯特能夠實現的價格溢價，加上我們出售碳信用等其他舉措，可能會為我們帶來另外 2,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元的額外價值，而這些價值也與市場無關。所以，你開始會發現，每年可能有大約 2 億美元的收入，這筆收入非常可估量、可預測，並且只是基礎的一部分，其他一切都建立在這個基礎之上。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

盧卡斯·博蒙特，瑞銀集團。

Thanks. Good morning. Good luck with your retirement, Tony. Congrats on your career line.

謝謝。早安.托尼，祝你退休生活一切順利。恭喜你選擇這條職業道路。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(inaudible) you and the others. Yes, I just wanted to kind of ask about Blue Point. You guys noted that you had procured all the long lead time equipment now. So kind of where did the costs come in there compared to the budget kind of what percent of the project spend was that? And can you just remind us of any cost escalation components that are built in there for like inflation and tariffs, et cetera, between now and sort of when the delivery occurs?

（聽不清楚）你和其他人。是的，我只是想問關於藍點賭場的情況。你們提到過，現在已經採購了所有交貨週期長的設備。那麼，這些成本在預算中佔多少？佔項目總支出的百分比是多少？您能否提醒我們一下，從現在到交貨日期之間，是否存在因通貨膨脹、關稅等因素而導致的成本上漲因素？

Yeah, thanks. This is Chris. Well, for starters, I would say, the projects we're way too early in the phase to say we're under significantly or we're slightly over or whatever. I would say we're right where we thought we'd be. The products that we -- or the equipment that we ordered as long lead time is like your boilers, your compressors, different equipment like that, the modular equipment, which is going to be the significant dollar amount that we'll be selecting the modular yard here shortly, and those have been fixed fee bids in which we had -- which was part of our overall $3.7 billion. So that part, we still feel very confident about.

嗯，謝謝。這是克里斯。首先，我想說，這些項目目前還處於非常早期的階段，現在就斷言我們嚴重低估了成本，還是略微高估了成本，或者其他什麼情況，還為時過早。我想說，我們現在的情況和我們預想的完全一樣。我們訂購的產品——或者說我們訂購的交貨期較長的設備，例如鍋爐、壓縮機、類似的各種設備、模組化設備，這些設備將是我們即將選定的模組化場地所涉及的大筆資金，而且這些都是固定費用投標，這是我們總共 37 億美元的一部分。所以，對於這部分，我們仍然非常有信心。

As we look at, I think your question probably with tariffs, I mean with the Supreme Court hearing arguments right now, there's still a lot of uncertainty what happens. A lot of the equipment that would be tariffed is most likely going to be coming in, in three years from now. So there's still quite a bit of a I'm certain more will change between now and then.

我認為，就關稅問題而言，鑑於最高法院目前正在審理相關辯論，未來走向仍有許多不確定性。許多需要徵收關稅的設備很可能在三年後才會進入市場。所以還有很多變數，我確信從現在到那時還會有更多變化。

But what I'd say is we've forecasted quite a bit into tariffs, we're slightly higher than that, that's going into our $500 million contingency, but not anything that would have us concerned at this time. I think additionally, there potentially could be upside dependent on what the Supreme Court rules, but there -- I'm certain that there would be some reactions by the administration as well on additional tariffs in other areas. So again, tariffs side a little uncertain, but we feel like we're covered there, long-lead items those are in past, but those are more -- some of the more engineered complex items like compressors and such.

但我想說的是，我們對關稅已經做了相當多的預測，我們的預測略高於實際水平，這部分資金將計入我們的 5 億美元應急儲備金中，但目前來說，沒有什麼會讓我們感到擔憂。我認為，最高法院的裁決可能會帶來一些好處，但同時，我確信政府也會對其他領域的額外關稅做出一些反應。所以，關稅方面還是有點不確定，但我們覺得我們已經考慮到了這一點，長週期產品的問題已經過去了，但這些問題更多是指一些工程化程度更高的複雜產品，比如壓縮機之類的。

Okay. Thanks. And then I guess just on the pricing outlook. I mean, you guys have kind of thought at length of that. I mean ammonia has been very tight. The pricing is strong. UA and Romania imports sort of running below trends heading into the fall in spring. So I mean, the near-term setup looks quite attractive. I mean, the same time, the future has sort of been coming off the past couple of months is gone from 12 and looking flattish year on year sort of is kind of now down about $1.50. So I guess just how do you kind of see those two factors resolving each together as we go through '26, or I guess if you do the reserve, then we not?

好的。謝謝。然後，我想就價格前景而言吧。我的意思是，你們應該已經對此進行了深入思考。我的意思是，氨氣一直很緊張。價格很有競爭力。烏克蘭和羅馬尼亞的進口量在春季的表現似乎低於秋季前的趨勢。所以我的意思是，短期方案看起來相當有吸引力。我的意思是，與此同時，未來幾個月的情況有所好轉，已經從12美元跌至谷底，而且同比走勢平緩，目前下跌了約1.50美元。所以我想知道，您認為這兩個因素在2026年會如何相互影響？或者，如果您考慮儲備金，情況又會如何呢？

Maybe I'll start with the gas side with -- I mean, TTF has come off about $1. So you're still sitting near $11 on the forward strip with that with the US sitting anywhere from $3.50 to $4. So you still have that differential that is very constructive.

也許我會先從汽油方面入手——我的意思是，TTF 的價格已經下跌了大約 1 美元。所以，目前美元兌美元匯率仍然接近 11 美元，而美國匯率則在 3.50 美元到 4 美元之間。所以你們之間仍然存在著這種非常有建設性的差異。

As Greg said, longer term, when we get into '28, '29, we may see that contract some but not nearly to the level just given that the projects being built have to have return profiles with us as well and the additional demand that will be drawing on LNG. So from a constructive standpoint, we still think the gas differential is going to be very strong even if it comes in $1 or $2 from where it is today.

正如格雷格所說，從長遠來看，到了 2028 年、2029 年，我們可能會看到一些收縮，但不會達到目前的水平，因為正在建設的項目也必須與我們達成回報協議，而且對液化天然氣的額外需求也將隨之而來。因此，從建設性的角度來看，我們仍然認為，即使油價比現在高出 1 或 2 美元，油價差也會非常大。

Regarding the market and the tightness we're experiencing today with Saudi, the plant -- the ammonia plant being down and the late start of some of these new capacities as well as Trinidad and then the suboptimally operating in Europe. The ammonia market is (inaudible) going to maintain tightness until these new plants come on, and we'll see what happens. But the United States today is a net import negative on UAN and ammonia probably balanced on urea.

關於市場以及我們目前在沙烏地阿拉伯遇到的供應緊張問題，氨廠停產，一些新產能投產較晚，以及特立尼達和多巴哥的情況，還有歐洲運作不善的問題。氨市場（聽不清楚）將保持緊張狀態，直到這些新廠投產，我們拭目以待。但目前美國尿素硝銨溶液和氨的淨進口量為負，可能與尿素的進口量持平。

And so again, looking around the world where we participate, where we have communication, you have a tight inventory position in all of the destination markets. And so looking at gas and costs and kind of upside, I think we roll very well into 2026 and probably through the first half easily in a positive way.

因此，再次放眼全球，在我們參與業務、開展業務的地區，所有目的地市場的庫存都非常緊張。因此，從天然氣、成本和潛在收益來看，我認為我們能夠非常順利地進入 2026 年，並且很可能在上半年輕鬆實現積極成長。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Thank you very much. I'm actually late to something else, but I want to stick around and just congratulate you, Tony, and say, thank you and good luck in the future.

非常感謝。我其實還有別的事要遲到了，但我還是想留下來祝賀你，托尼，並說聲謝謝，祝你未來一切順利。

Thank you. I appreciate that.

謝謝。我很感激。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

馬修‧德約，美國銀行。

Good morning. Tony, congrats on the run. I know I didn't cover you directly for much of the time, but Steve always how do with the highest regard. So I know that goes for the rest of us here at Team BofA.

早安.東尼，恭喜你跑得這麼好。我知道我大部分時間都沒有直接報道你，但史蒂夫一直對你非常尊敬。所以我知道，這也適用於我們美國銀行團隊的其他人。

I wanted to ask, I guess, a little bit on the slide where we talk about like ammonia expansions and closures Certainly, we don't disagree that a number of European plans need to close chemicals across like a lot of chains. But if we look at that 3% to 4% number, I mean, what's the -- how much of that has been announced? What do you think the rates are that those plants are running?

我想問一下，關於我們討論氨氣擴張和關閉的那張幻燈片，當然，我們並不否認許多歐洲計劃需要關閉許多供應鏈中的化學品工廠。但如果我們看一下這 3% 到 4% 的數字，我的意思是，其中有多少已經公佈了？你認為這些工廠的運作速率是多少？

And then like I just know that closing plants is expensive and not really done easily. So I'd love a little bit more kind of commentary around your outlook for that capacity.

而且我知道關閉工廠成本很高，而且不容易做到。所以我很想聽聽您對這項能力的看法再多一些評論。

So this, as you may recall, is a study we did about 1.5 years ago where we analyzed every ammonia plant in Europe based on how its ownership structure was, what its maintenance structure, what its cost structure was going to be to try to identify which of those plants come off. In Europe, used to have about 48 ammonia assets that we're operating and how we have it leveled was red, yellow, green. And what we've seen is, the red plants have come off as we expected. And in fact, we're probably ahead of that particular schedule with a number of curtailments and shutdowns that are occurring in Europe from that.

所以，您可能還記得，這是我們大約 1.5 年前進行的一項研究，我們分析了歐洲每家氨廠的所有權結構、維護結構和成本結構，試圖確定哪些氨廠應該關閉。在歐洲，我們曾經經營著大約 48 個氨資產，我們用紅色、黃色、綠色來劃分它們的等級。我們看到的情況是，紅色的植物已經如我們預期的那樣脫落了。事實上，由於歐洲正在發生一系列限制措施和停工，我們可能已經提前完成了這個階段的工作。

But that 48 assets today is probably around 30 assets or maybe 31 assets. And we expect that to drop another 4 to 5 assets over the next couple of years. You have to remember, the decision we made in the UK was because we had a significant turnaround coming forward. These turnarounds are $50 million to $60 million. So when you're entering into that, you have to make certain you're going to get that return on that cash.

但如今的 48 項資產可能只剩下 30 項或 31 項左右了。我們預計未來幾年還將有 4 到 5 項資產被剝離。你要記住，我們在英國做出的決定是因為我們即將迎來重大轉折。這些改造工程需要花費 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。所以當你進行投資時，你必須確保你能獲得相應的回報。

Additionally, where TTF is today at the $10 to $12 range makes it difficult to be producing throughout 12 months of the year for really selling in what may be three months a year, maybe four months a year. So you're making a risk decision based on that. So what we're seeing today is with some of the pricing, there's just a little bit more curtailment going on. But eventually, through our study and what we've seen, you're going to see some of those plants continue to go off. So the European side we feel very confident that that $3 million to $4 million is going to come off. Now whether all that gets imported in net ammonia or is upgraded product, that will be determined.

此外，TTF 目前的價格在 10 到 12 美元之間，這使得全年 12 個月都進行生產，而實際銷售時間可能只有一年中的三到四個月，這非常困難。所以你是基於此做出風險決策的。所以，我們今天看到的是，部分商品的價格有所下調。但最終，透過我們的研究和觀察，你會看到其中一些植物繼續衰敗下去。因此，我們對歐洲方面的300萬至400萬美元的到位非常有信心。現在，究竟是全部以淨氨的形式進口，還是以升級產品的形式進口，還有待確定。

But I think the other aspect here is, as Bert mentioned, there is just not a lot of new supply coming on. We have visibility of what plants are being built. And with the exception of ours and the two in the Gulf Coast that are about to come on probably sometime in 2026 and one in Qatar, there's really not much coming on. And the other plants that are coming on are upgrade plans that are consuming ammonia and making the ammonia market even tighter. So what we see is a strong constructive gas differential where we'll make money off of that versus TTF. And then we also see a very tight S&D balance that not only continues here into 2026, but really goes all the way to 2030.

但我認為另一個方面，正如伯特提到的那樣，就是新增供應量並不多。我們能夠清楚地看到正在建造哪些工廠。除了我們自己的電視台、海灣沿岸即將於 2026 年某個時候開播的兩家電視台以及卡達的一家電視台之外，真的沒什麼新的電視台要開播了。而其他即將投產的工廠都是升級改造項目，這些項目會消耗氨，讓氨市場更加緊張。因此，我們看到的是一個強勁的建設性天然氣價差，我們將從中獲利，而 TTF 則不然。然後我們也看到，支持與反對的平衡非常緊張，這種平衡不僅會持續到 2026 年，而且實際上會持續到 2030 年。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Martin Jarosick for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給馬丁·雅羅西克，請他作閉幕致詞。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you at future conferences.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。我們期待在未來的會議上與您交流。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。