CF工業控股 (CF) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the CF Industries fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 CF Industries 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Martin Jarosick. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給馬丁·雅羅西克。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Chris Bohn, President and CEO; Bert Frost, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Rich Hoker, Vice President, Interim CFO and Chief Accounting Officer. CF Industries reported its results for the full year and fourth quarter of 2025 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook and then host a question-and-answer session.

早上好，感謝各位參加CF Industries的財報電話會議。今天陪同我出席的有：總裁兼執行長克里斯·博恩；執行副總裁兼首席商務官伯特·弗羅斯特；以及副總裁、臨時首席財務官兼首席會計官里奇·霍克。CF Industries 昨天下午公佈了其 2025 年全年及第四季度的業績。在本次電話會議上，我們將回顧結果，討論我們的展望，然後進行問答環節。

Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you will find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website.

本次電話會議及我們網站上的簡報中，除歷史事實外的所有陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並非對未來業績的保證，並且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。因此，實際結果可能與任何聲明中明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，這些文件可在我們的網站上查閱。此外，您還可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿和簡報中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調整表。

Now let me introduce Chris Bohn.

現在讓我來介紹一下克里斯·博恩。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the full year 2025, in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion. These strong results reflect outstanding operational performance by the CF Industries team, the enduring advantages of our manufacturing and distribution network and constructive global nitrogen industry dynamics that have persisted into 2026.

謝謝馬丁，大家早安。昨天下午，我們公佈了 2025 年全年業績，其中調整後的 EBITDA 約為 29 億美元。這些強勁的業績反映了 CF Industries 團隊出色的營運表現、我們製造和分銷網絡的持久優勢以及持續到 2026 年的建設性全球氮肥行業動態。

Starting with safety, our full year recordable incident rate was 0.26 incidents per 200,000 hours worked, and we experienced our lowest ever number of process safety events. This enabled us to produce 10.1 million tons of gross ammonia in 2025, which represents a 97% utilization rate.

先從安全方面說起，我們全年可記錄事故率為每 20 萬工時 0.26 起事故，並且我們經歷了有史以來最低的製程安全事件數量。這使我們能夠在 2025 年生產 1,010 萬噸總氨，這相當於 97% 的利用率。

However, that performance is tempered by the incident, the Yazoo City Complex in Mississippi experienced in November. While there are no significant injuries, this event is a reminder of why we emphasize individual and process safety every day across our entire network. We do not expect the Yazoo City Complex to resume production until the fourth quarter of 2026 at the earliest, given the long lead times required to fabricate and deliver certain equipment. As a result, we expect our network to produce approximately 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia in 2026.

然而，密西西比州亞祖城綜合體在 11 月發生的事件，卻為這一表現蒙上了一層陰影。雖然沒有造成重大傷亡，但這次事件提醒我們，為什麼我們每天都要在整個網路中強調個人安全和流程安全。鑑於製造和交付某些設備需要較長的提前期，我們預計亞祖城綜合設施最早也要到 2026 年第四季才能恢復生產。因此，我們預計到 2026 年，我們的網路將生產約 950 萬噸總氨。

Turning to Blue Point, our joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, the project has progressed well from positive FID in April through hitting all our planned milestones by the end of the year. This included our partner securing offtake from new low-carbon ammonia demand sources and receiving contract for difference awards from the Japanese government. We expect to begin civil work at the Blue Point site in the second quarter of 2026.

再來看我們與 JERA 和三井合資的 Blue Point 項目，該項目自 4 月做出積極的最終投資決定以來進展順利，並在年底前實現了所有計劃的里程碑。這包括我們的合作夥伴從新的低碳氨需求來源獲得承購權，以及從日本政府獲得差價合約獎勵。我們預計將於 2026 年第二季開始在藍點工地進行土木工程。

Finally, we continue to efficiently convert adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. At a rate outpacing material and industrial sector averages, as you can see on slide 10. Net cash from operations in 2025 was $2.75 billion, and free cash flow was approximately $1.8 billion. We returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025. This included deploying over $1.3 billion to repurchase 16.6 million shares, approximately 10% of the outstanding shares at the beginning of the year.

最後，我們繼續有效率地將調整後的 EBITDA 轉化為自由現金流。如第 10 頁投影片所示，其增速超過了材料和工業部門的平均水準。2025 年經營活動產生的淨現金為 27.5 億美元，自由現金流約 18 億美元。我們在 2025 年向股東返還了 17 億美元。其中包括投入超過 13 億美元回購 1,660 萬股股票，約佔年初流通股的 10%。

Given our high-performing, high-margin business, progress on strategic initiatives and what we believe are constructive global nitrogen industry dynamics ahead, we expect to continue to generate substantial free cash flow. As a result, we remain firmly committed to our capital allocation framework, investing in the business for growth and returning capital to long-term shareholders.

鑑於我們業績優異、利潤豐厚的業務，戰略舉措取得的進展，以及我們認為未來全球氮肥行業將呈現建設性的發展態勢，我們預計將繼續產生可觀的自由現金流。因此，我們將繼續堅定地執行我們的資本配置框架，投資於業務成長，並將資本回報給長期股東。

With that, I'll turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market environment. Bert?

接下來，我將把發言權交給伯特，讓他來討論全球氮肥市場環境。伯特？

Thanks, Chris. For the last 12 to 18 months, we had expected the global nitrogen market to be more balanced in this time frame as new capacity was slated to come online with significant tightening through the end of the decade to follow. However, the global nitrogen market remains tighter than expected. New capacity has been delayed, global production has not maintained historical levels and demand continues to grow.

謝謝你，克里斯。在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，我們一直預期全球氮肥市場會更加平衡，因為新的產能將陸續投產，而到下一個十年末期，供應將大幅收緊。然而，全球氮肥市場供應仍比預期更為緊張。新產能建設延遲，全球產量未能維持在歷史水平，而需求卻持續成長。

Nowhere is this more apparent than in our indicative global urea cost curve, which we share on slide 13. Global urea prices are currently trading well above even the high end of the cost for range. Strong demand led by India, Brazil and North America as well by European buyers securing volumes before the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism was implemented, has pushed demand to the right.

這一點在我們第 13 張投影片中所展示的全球尿素成本曲線圖中體現得最為明顯。目前全球尿素價格甚至遠高於其性價比範圍的高端水準。印度、巴西和北美等國的強勁需求，以及歐洲買家在歐盟碳邊境調節機制實施前鎖定的大量訂單，都推動了需求向右移動。

At the same time, supply is constrained by natural gas availability in Trinidad and Iran, challenging production economics in Europe and the end of seasonal Chinese urea exports in 2025. Additionally, geopolitical concerns for the Middle East loom over the market.

同時，特立尼達和伊朗的天然氣供應受到限制，對歐洲的生產經濟構成挑戰，中國季節性尿素出口將於 2025 年結束。此外，中東地區的地緣政治局勢也為市場蒙上了一層陰影。

Through the first half of this year, we do not see many catalysts that would move prices toward the cost curve floor levels. India's February urea tender is atypical for this time of year, suggesting demand continues to meaningfully outstrip lower-than-expected domestic production.

今年上半年，我們沒有看到太多能夠推動價格向成本曲線下限水平靠攏的催化劑。印度2月份的尿素招標與往年同期不同，顯示需求持續顯著超過低於預期的國內產量。

CF Industries had a very strong fall 2025 ammonia application season in North America as we position supply well, enabling farmers to capture good value per nitrogen unit from ammonia. This, along with continued strong global corn demand suggests to us that 2026 will be another year of high planted corn acres domestically, helping support nitrogen demand.

CF Industries 在 2025 年秋季北美氨施用季表現非常強勁，因為我們的供應安排得當，使農民能夠從氨中獲得每單位氮肥的良好價值。這一點，再加上全球玉米需求持續強勁，顯示2026年國內玉米種植面積將再次大幅成長，有助於滿足氮肥需求。

From a supply perspective, we believe global nitrogen channel inventories are lower than historical averages. Chinese urea exports are also unlikely to return until the end of the Northern Hemisphere spring application season. However, we do expect that new North American ammonia capacity, should it come online at full rates, will affect prices for globally traded ammonia, but will not impact tightness for urea or UAN. As a result, we expect the global nitrogen market to remain constructive in the near term.

從供應角度來看，我們認為全球氮通路庫存低於歷史平均。中國的尿素出口也不太可能在北半球春季施肥季結束前恢復。不過，我們預計，如果北美新的氨產能以滿載運轉，將會影響全球氨貿易價格，但不會影響尿素或尿素硝銨溶液的供應緊張。因此，我們預期全球氮肥市場在短期內將保持良好態勢。

At the same time, interest in low-carbon ammonia and low carbon nitrogen products continues to grow, both for tonnes from our Donaldsonville Complex and for our portion of Blue Point volumes. In the near term, global customers have demonstrated a willingness to pay a premium for low carbon ammonia given the benefits for their sustainability goals. We also expect demand to continue to grow from customers in Europe and Africa, seeking to reduce additional costs from EU regulations on carbon.

同時，無論是我們唐納森維爾綜合設施的產量，還是我們在藍點工廠的產量，人們對低碳氨和低碳氮產品的興趣都在持續增長。短期來看，鑑於低碳氨有利於實現其永續發展目標，全球客戶已表現出願意為其支付溢價的意願。我們也預計，來自歐洲和非洲的客戶的需求將持續成長，他們希望減少因歐盟碳排放法規而產生的額外成本。

We're also excited about the progress we're making domestically as we work with domestic retailers and end users of ag and industrial products to lower carbon footprint of their value chain. Most significantly, we have advanced our pilot project with POET, the world's largest producer of biofuels and with retailers in the US to enable the production of low-carbon ethanol. We expect the project will be a model for building a low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer supply chain in the US and in North America.

我們也對在國內取得的進展感到興奮，我們正與國內零售商和農產品及工業產品的最終用戶合作，以降低其價值鏈的碳足跡。最重要的是，我們與全球最大的生物燃料生產商 POET 以及美國零售商合作推進了試點項目，以實現低碳乙醇的生產。我們期望該計畫能夠成為美國乃至北美低碳氨氮肥供應鏈的典範。

With that, I'll turn it over to Rich.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給里奇。

Thanks, Bert, and good morning, everyone. For the full year 2025, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.5 billion or $8.97 per diluted share. EBITDA was approximately $2.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA was approximately $2.9 billion. For the fourth quarter of 2025, we reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $404 million or $2.59 per diluted share. EBITDA for the quarter was $731 million and adjusted EBITDA was $821 million.

謝謝你，伯特，大家早安。該公司公佈，2025 年全年歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤約為 15 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 8.97 美元。EBITDA約28億美元，調整後EBITDA約29億美元。2025 年第四季度，我們公佈歸屬於普通股股東的淨利為 4.04 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 2.59 美元。本季 EBITDA 為 7.31 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.21 億美元。

For the fourth quarter, we recorded two impairment charges totaling $76 million, of which $51 million was related to the electrolyzer pilot project at the Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana. We made the decision not to continue to invest in this pilot project given its return profile. We also recorded a $25 million impairment charge related to the incident at Yazoo City that Chris mentioned earlier. We satisfied the business interruption insurance deductible in December and expect to begin receiving insurance proceeds based on lost profitability during 2026.

第四季度，我們提列了兩項減損費用，總計 7,600 萬美元，其中 5,100 萬美元與路易斯安那州唐納森維爾綜合體的電解槽試點計畫有關。鑑於此試點計畫的回報情況，我們決定不再繼續投資。我們還記錄了一筆與克里斯之前提到的亞祖城事件相關的 2500 萬美元減損費用。我們在 12 月支付了營業中斷保險的免賠額，預計將於 2026 年開始收到基於獲利損失的保險賠償金。

During the fourth quarter of 2025, we also completed a $1 billion senior notes offering. We did this both to refinance $750 million in debt that was coming due in December 2026, and to further strengthen our financial flexibility. Looking ahead, we expect capital expenditures in 2026 to total approximately $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis. CF Industries portion of this is approximately $950 million, which includes $550 million for sustaining CapEx for our existing network, plus approximately $400 million relating to both the Blue Point joint venture and the common infrastructure we are building.

2025 年第四季度，我們也完成了 10 億美元的優先票據發行。我們這樣做既是為了對 2026 年 12 月到期的 7.5 億美元債務進行再融資，也是為了進一步增強我們的財務靈活性。展望未來，我們預期 2026 年合併後的資本支出總額約為 13 億美元。CF Industries 的份額約為 9.5 億美元，其中包括 5.5 億美元用於維持我們現有網路的資本支出，以及約 4 億美元用於 Blue Point 合資企業和我們正在建造的公共基礎設施。

Finally, we repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter. These repurchases completed our $3 billion share repurchase program, which was authorized in 2022. After this was completed, we commenced our $2 billion program, which was authorized by our Board in 2025. Approximately $1.7 billion remains on the 2025 program, which expires in December 2029.

最後，我們在第四季回購了 410 萬股股票，耗資 3.4 億美元。此次回購完成了我們 30 億美元的股票回購計劃，該計劃於 2022 年獲得授權。完成這項工作後，我們啟動了20億美元的計劃，該計劃於2025年獲得董事會批准。2025 年計畫還剩下約 17 億美元，該計畫將於 2029 年 12 月到期。

With that, Chris will provide some closing remarks before we open the call to Q&A.

接下來，克里斯將作一些總結發言，之後我們將進入問答環節。

Thanks, Rich. First and foremost, I want to thank CF Industries employees for their contributions to our success in 2025. They delivered fantastic results in the midst of the tumultuous global nitrogen market and did so with a focus on safety. We're extremely proud of what our 2,900 employees can accomplish when moving in the same direction towards shared goals.

謝謝你，里奇。首先，我要感謝 CF Industries 的員工們為我們 2025 年的成功所做的貢獻。在動盪的全球氮肥市場中，他們取得了卓越的成果，並且始終將安全放在首位。我們為2900名員工朝著共同目標朝著同一方向努力所取得的成就感到無比自豪。

2025 showed how much we can do. From operational excellence and positive FID for Blue Point to completing two major decarbonization projects and securing our first low-carbon ammonia sales for our premium. This level of execution is not a one-year story but rather has been consistently delivered over time. This, along with our operational advantages and structural advantages, where we operate underpins our ability to invest in growth and return in capital. This, in turn, increases long-term shareholder participation in our underlying assets and the free cash flow they generate.

2025年向我們展示了我們能做到多少事情。從卓越的營運和對 Blue Point 的積極最終投資決定，到完成兩個主要的脫碳項目，並為我們的優質產品確保了首筆低碳氨銷售。這種執行水準並非一年就能達到的，而是長期以來持續維持的。這一點，加上我們在營運和結構上的優勢，為我們提供了投資成長和資本回報的保障。這反過來又增加了長期股東對我們基礎資產及其產生的自由現金流的參與。

As you can see on slide 9, we have increased nitrogen participation per share by over 35% in just the last five years. Given our strong core business, strategic growth initiatives in our near, medium and long-term outlook for tightening global nitrogen market, we believe we are well positioned to build on this track record and continue to create substantial value for long-term shareholders.

正如您在幻燈片 9 中看到的那樣，在過去的五年裡，我們每股氮肥參與率提高了 35% 以上。鑑於我們強大的核心業務，以及我們在近期、中期和長期內針對日益緊張的全球氮肥市場所採取的戰略增長舉措，我們相信我們有能力鞏固這一業績，並繼續為長期股東創造巨大價值。

With that, operator, we'll now open the call to questions.

好了，接線生，現在我們開始接受提問。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

Andrew Wong，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

I just wanted to ask about the pace of spending at the Blue Point project, it looked like some of the project might have been pushed now (technical difficulty) -- just talk about that (technical difficulty)

我只是想問一下藍點專案的支出進度，看起來專案的部分內容可能因為技術原因被推遲了——就談談這方面吧。（技術難題）

Andrew, I think you broke up a little bit, but I believe your question was related to the slide we had in the deck on slide 12, just the capital cost related -- excuse me, slide 15, the capital costs related to the Blue point.

Andrew，我覺得你有點語無倫次了，但我相信你的問題與我們簡報中的第 12 張投影片有關，也就是與藍點相關的資本成本——抱歉，是第 15 張投影片，與藍點相關的資本成本。

So the overall expenditure for Blue Point hasn't changed our -- it's still forecasted at $3.7 billion. But with any project of this size, as you get closer and get into it, both from ordering some of the long lead items like we've done and engaging the modular contractors, you get a better idea of not only what the costs are, which haven't changed here, but also the timing of when that cost is going to occur. So we thought it would be worthwhile just given that we've moved into that stage just to re-update what the cash flow outflow will look like over the next five years.

因此，Blue Point 的總支出並沒有改變——預計仍為 37 億美元。但是對於任何如此規模的項目，隨著項目的推進和深入，無論是像我們這樣訂購一些交貨週期較長的物品，還是與模組化承包商接洽，你都會更好地了解成本是多少（雖然這裡的成本沒有改變），以及這些成本何時發生。既然我們已經進入了那個階段，那麼我們認為有必要重新更新未來五年的現金流出情況。

I think the important part of that slide on slide 15 is the bottom line where it shows what's our annual cash outflow as a company. And given our free cash flow generation and the strength of it at $1.8 billion last year, $1.5 billion the year before, you can see the level of CapEx going out each of those years is not something that we're concerned about affecting other capital allocation decisions in which we're making. And that's really one of the reasons why with this growth platform that we structured the deal the way we did, taking a 40% interest in it so that we'd be able to manage and continue to be strategic in how we do other growth projects, but also return cash to our shareholders.

我認為第 15 張投影片最重要的部分是結論部分，它顯示了我們公司每年的現金流出情況。鑑於我們自由現金流的產生情況，以及去年18億美元、前年15億美元的強勁勢頭，可以看出，我們並不擔心每年的資本支出水準會影響我們正在做出的其他資本配置決策。而這正是我們以這種方式建立這個成長平台交易的原因之一，我們持有該平台 40% 的股份，這樣我們既可以管理並繼續策略性地開展其他成長項目，也可以為我們的股東帶來現金回報。

Okay. Great. And then maybe just a little bit more on Blue Point here. I recall there being quite a lot of room for expansion nearby on that site. CF is obviously building themselves, some of the logistics and infrastructure there potentially to handle more volumes in the future.

好的。偉大的。然後，或許可以再稍微談談藍點鎮。我記得那塊地附近還有很大的擴建空間。CF顯然正在建造一些物流和基礎設施，以便將來能夠處理更大的貨運量。

And so I know it's still early days here, but if we're thinking longer term, like 5, 10 years from now, does it make sense that we'll see a larger complex there? And is there a timing where it's more efficient to like so that you have workers that are already working at Blue Point to move to the second side? Like how should we think about that?

我知道現在還為時過早，但如果我們從長遠角度考慮，例如 5 年、10 年後，那裡出現一個更大的綜合體是否合理呢？是否存在某種時機，讓已經在藍點工作的員工轉移到另一邊會更有效率？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Yeah. So initially here, I would say our focus is on the first site. But you're right, the common infrastructure we're building, there'll be synergies where if we were to build a second plant, we wouldn't have near the level of expense that we would have for this first site. And the site itself that we purchased could hold up to five ammonia plants world scale the size of this one, 1.5 million metric tons.

是的。所以，首先，我認為我們的重點是第一個站點。但你說得對，我們正在建設的公共基礎設施將會產生協同效應，如果我們再建一個工廠，我們的支出將遠低於第一個工廠的支出水準。我們購買的這塊地本身可以容納多達五個與這座工廠規模相當的世界級氨廠，年產量為 150 萬噸。

So it is an organic growth platform that we're looking at here, what the timing is where we had moved into a second site, I'm not certain that we know that just yet. There are some questions that we want to answer as we get into these module yards. But I think as we look at the long-term dynamics of the nitrogen market, there's just not enough new supply coming on to meet demand. So as we see that going forward, we do think there will be a tightening in the S&D, that will provide other organic opportunities for us, but nothing to mention right now.

所以，我們正在研究的是一個有機成長平台，至於我們何時會搬到第二個站點，我還不確定。我們進入這些模組化堆場後，有一些問題想要解答。但我認為，從氮肥市場的長期動態來看，新增供應量不足以滿足需求。因此，我們看到，展望未來，我們認為社會民主黨內部將會收緊，這將為我們帶來其他的有機成長機會，但目前沒有什麼值得一提的。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

I want to talk to you about CBAM, obviously, a lot in the news on CBAM. So what I want to ask you about is, it's different scenarios. If CBAM for fertilizers goes as it is, if there's some suspension on fertilizer, if you get some offsets and other cost subsidies that sort of offset it. What does that mean for a, your business, just your business this year? And then what does it mean for returns on Blue Point as you have modeled it in the different CBAM scenarios effects?

我想跟你們談談CBAM，顯然，最近新聞裡有很多關於CBAM的報導。所以我想問的是，這是不同的情況。如果化肥的CBAM政策照常進行，如果化肥供應暫停，如果能獲得一些抵銷和其他成本補貼來抵銷損失。這對你的企業，尤其是你今年的企業來說意味著什麼？那麼，根據您在不同 CBAM 情境效應中建立的模型，這對 Blue Point 的回報意味著什麼？

Yeah. So maybe I'll start with CBAM, then I'll get to the implications on the business in Blue Point. So CBAM, today, while there's a lot of uncertainty around it, it's in place. And so it's happening. We are continuing to see our European customers show interest in low-carbon product and willingness to pay a premium for it. So I think that speaks to their thoughts that it's going to maintain.

是的。所以，我或許會先從 CBAM 開始，然後再談談這對 Blue Point 業務的影響。所以，儘管目前CBAM存在著許多不確定性，但它已經到位了。所以，這件事正在發生。我們持續看到歐洲客戶對低碳產品表現出濃厚的興趣，並願意為此支付溢價。所以我認為這表明他們認為這種情況將會持續下去。

I think whether CBAM stays or goes is probably more of an issue for European producers than it is for our North American centric production base. We view CBAM as one of several opportunities. Bert and his team and the clean energy team have been working on many different sales that go outside of Europe that we're receiving premiums on some here building in the US, others in Asia and Africa, that we don't necessarily have everything tagged where it has to be from a CBAM standpoint.

我認為，CBAM 的去留對歐洲生產商來說可能比對我們以北美為中心的生產基地更重要。我們認為 CBAM 是眾多機會之一。Bert 和他的團隊以及清潔能源團隊一直在進行許多不同的銷售工作，這些銷售都在歐洲以外，我們在美國的一些建設項目、在亞洲和非洲的建設項目都獲得了溢價，但我們不一定從 CBAM 的角度來看，所有項目都已按規定貼上了標籤。

Now what I'll say is if CBAM's altered or goes away. At some point, there's going to be some type of carbon program in Europe. And us having low carbon product, these benefits should accrue to us in that.

現在我要說的是，如果 CBAM 改變或消失的話。歐洲遲早會推出某種形式的碳排放計畫。我們生產的是低碳產品，這些好處理應歸我們所有。

Regarding how this is going to affect our business, I would say, as we talked about before, we did not model in any type of premium from Blue Point or even in our Donaldsonville production with related to low-carbon products. So all of that is upside to our internal rate of returns on that. So when you think about the CCS project, we started online last year at Donaldsonville. We weren't looking at anything besides the 45Q benefit that we would get from that. Now we're realizing that we're able to sell that at a premium. So that's building on that. And similar with Blue Point, our analysis was without looking at any type of product premium.

至於這將如何影響我們的業務，我想說，正如我們之前討論過的，我們沒有將 Blue Point 的任何溢價，甚至在我們唐納森維爾的生產中與低碳產品相關的溢價納入模型。所以所有這些都有利於我們的內部報酬率。所以，當你想到 CCS 計畫時，我們去年在唐納森維爾開始了線上計畫。我們當時只考慮能從中獲得的 45Q 收益，而沒有考慮其他事情。現在我們意識到，我們可以以溢價出售這些產品。這是在此基礎上發展出來的。與 Blue Point 的情況類似，我們的分析並未考慮任何類型的產品溢價。

Okay. And then second question. On Yazoo City, when the plant starts, hopefully, end of the year, will it look the same as it did before. Will the mix be the same? And maybe if you can just elaborate a little bit more on, is there specifically for equipment that you really need to get in that, that's the manufacturing schedule that you have to hit to get in Q4?

好的。然後是第二個問題。在亞祖城，當工廠開始運作時（希望是在年底），它看起來會和以前一樣嗎？配料會一樣嗎？如果您能再詳細說明一下，特別是對於您真正需要引進的設備，是否有必須在第四季度完成的生產計劃？

Yeah. Just to remind everybody on the Yazoo plant, so where the incident occurred within the ammonium nitrate plant, the site itself has an ammonia plant, a urea liquor plant and nitric acid plants. All that has been effect -- has been unaffected. However, given there's the site's not logistically equipped to move that much net ammonia if the upgrades are not operating, that's why the entire plant is down right now.

是的。提醒一下亞祖工廠的各位，事故發生在硝酸銨廠內，而該廠區本身還有氨廠、尿素液廠和硝酸廠。所有受影響的事物－都未受影響。然而，由於該廠在物流方面沒有能力在升級改造不進行的情況下轉移如此多的淨氨，這就是為什麼整個工廠現在停工的原因。

So the only plant that we're looking to rebuild here is the ammonium nitrate plant. And I would say it's too early to judge on a lot of different aspects of that, but our intent is to get the plant up as soon as possible. The timeframe that we've given with late Q4 here in 2026 is just as we've gone out to get switchgear and some of the electrical stuff, which is longer lead time items, we've been given those dates as delivery. If it comes in sooner, that would be excellent. But we're right now just basing it on that.

所以，我們在這裡唯一打算重建的工廠就是硝酸銨工廠。我認為現在對很多方面做出判斷還為時過早，但我們的目標是盡快讓工廠建成。我們給出的時間表是 2026 年第四季末，因為我們已經開始購買開關設備和一些電氣設備，這些都是交貨週期較長的物品，我們得到的交貨日期就是這些日期。如果能早點到貨，那就太好了。但我們現在只是以此為依據。

Maybe just on this particular point with Yazoo City, I'll have Rich talk through some of the economics for 2026.

或許就亞祖城這個具體問題而言，我會讓里奇談談 2026 年的經濟狀況。

Yeah. Thanks, Chris. Joel, in terms of the economics, the full year EBITDA impact of not running the Yazoo City Complex, is it going to be in the $200 million range. And again, that's an EBITDA number.

是的。謝謝你，克里斯。Joel，從經濟角度來看，如果不經營 Yazoo City Complex，全年 EBITDA 的影響將達到 2 億美元左右。再次強調，這是 EBITDA 數據。

But I also want to highlight, we mentioned in our prepared remarks that we have business interruption insurance for the site. And so we are working with our insurance carriers. We're pulling together all of those claims, and we would expect to be receiving those business interruption proceeds during 2026. Our goal is to see if we can offset most or all of that kind of loss with the insurance proceeds because that's the program that we have. I'll also mention that the timing of those insurance proceeds are going to be a little bumpy, because we will record those as they come in to the company, but that's the impact.

但我還想強調一點，我們在準備好的演講稿中提到，我們為該網站購買了營業中斷保險。因此，我們正在與保險公司合作。我們正在匯總所有這些索賠，預計將在 2026 年收到這些營業中斷賠償金。我們的目標是看看能否用保險賠償金來抵銷大部分或全部此類損失，因為這是我們現有的方案。我還要提一下，這些保險賠償金到帳的時間可能會有些波折，因為我們會在收到賠償金後立即記錄在案，但這就是影響所在。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本·圖雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

Just wanted to kind of like get a little more commentary around the current tightness in the market. And you've laid this out as '25 was expected to be not as tight and then it was actually tightest towards the end of it, and we saw this because you guys doing almost $3 billion in EBITDA versus the $2.5 billion that you talked about kind of on the current mid-cycle.

我只是想就目前市場的緊張局勢聽取一些評論。你之前預測 2025 年市場不會那麼緊張，但實際上到了年底市場反而最緊張。我們看到這一點是因為你們的 EBITDA 接近 30 億美元，而你們先前在當前週期中期預測的 EBITDA 為 25 億美元。

So as we look into 2026 and some of the drivers that you think can take you towards the mid-cycle of $3 billion, some of them might come already in 2026. So how should we think about, a, the market and b, some of these drivers over more EBITDA generation, the tax credits, et cetera, as we move through 2026, considering the [$200] million miss on Yazoo related that you just mentioned?

因此，當我們展望 2026 年，以及您認為可以帶您達到 30 億美元中期目標的某些驅動因素時，其中一些可能在 2026 年就已經出現。那麼，考慮到您剛才提到的 Yazoo 相關項目 2 億美元的虧損，我們應該如何看待以下兩點：a) 市場；b) 隨著我們邁入 2026 年，哪些因素會推動 EBITDA 的增長，例如稅收抵免等等？

This is Bert. And relative to 2025, a very interesting market as things unfolded globally. And because we're -- we participate in the global market, A lot of those issues drive what happens in different regions. And starting off with the conflict in the Middle East, which shut down production in Iran and in Egypt, and then you had high demand levels in India throughout the year, much higher than expected.

這是伯特。相對於 2025 年，隨著全球情勢的發展，這是一個非常有趣的市場。因為我們參與全球市場，所以很多問題都會影響不同地區的情況。首先是中東衝突，導致伊朗和埃及的生產停擺，然後印度全年的需求水準很高，遠遠超出預期。

I think the industry expected $6 million, we were close to $10 million and additional demand for Brazil and then European difficulty due to high gas cost took production down and it required higher levels of imports. And then the United States planting 98 million acres of corn, incremental tons were needed to satisfy that demand, even though we carried in lower inventory levels into fertilizer year '26.

我認為業內預期收入為 600 萬美元，我們接近 1000 萬美元，但由於巴西的額外需求以及歐洲天然氣價格高企導致的困境，產量下降，需要增加進口量。然後，美國種植了 9,800 萬英畝玉米，需要增加噸數來滿足這一需求，儘管我們在 2026 年化肥年度的庫存水準較低。

So a very interesting market and the combination of lack of supply and high demand drove the market to levels that were unexpected. That dynamic is carrying forward into 2026. We expect -- the USDA came out with 93 million acres of corn. I think the industry would say it's that or higher. So consistently, I would say, over the last 10 years, higher corn acres, so higher demand. And you're seeing additional needs for India, the current tender that was announced or opened on Wednesday, when those numbers will be probably disclosed tomorrow or early next week.

因此，市場呈現出非常有趣的態勢，供應短缺和需求旺盛的雙重作用將市場推向了意想不到的高點。這種趨勢將延續到2026年。我們預計—美國農業部公佈的數據顯示，玉米種植面積為9,300萬英畝。我認為業內人士會說這個數字或更高。因此，我認為在過去 10 年裡，玉米種植面積不斷增加，需求也隨之增加。而且，印度還有額外的需求，目前的招標已於週三宣布或開啟，相關數字可能會在明天或下週初公佈。

And then you're seeing, again, around the world with $11 gas in Europe and CBAM issues, you're seeing higher levels of imports eventually will come there and South America as well. So again, a positive demand and probably limited supply. So you're seeing today in NOLA, urea pricing at $450 a short ton, which is $100 higher than it was in December of 2025. So exceptionally positive dynamics driving the industry in North America where the preponderance of our production is located and we're participating in that market.

然後，你會看到，世界各地，歐洲的汽油價格高達每加侖 11 美元，加上 CBAM 問題，最終會導致進口量增加，南美洲也會如此。所以，再次證明需求旺盛，而供應可能有限。所以你今天在NOLA看到的尿素價格是每短噸450美元，比2025年12月的價格高出100美元。因此，北美地區（我們大部分生產都位於此地，我們也參與了該市場）的產業發展呈現出異常正面的態勢。

Then you have the positive gas dynamics that are taking place. Today, we're at $3 for the forward market, positive economics for that structure as well. So we see 2026 as being at least through the first half having a challenging market on supply and high demand going forward.

然後就會出現正向氣體動力學現象。今天，遠期市場價格為 3 美元，這種結構的經濟效益也很好。因此，我們認為 2026 年至少上半年市場供應將面臨挑戰，而未來需求將持續旺盛。

Yeah, Ben, and I think you framed it nicely when you talked about 2025 that we thought would be balanced, some people thought a little bit long, same thing with '26. And as Bert just mentioned, '25 came out with $2.9 billion in EBITDA and the first half of '26 certainly looks very strong here. And all of that is sort of bridging those years to where the market gets what I think is going to be even tighter given the lack of new supply coming on, setting us up for when Blue Point does come on the market.

是的，本，我覺得你對 2025 年的描述很到位，我們認為那一年將會比較平衡，有些人覺得時間有點長，2026 年也是如此。正如伯特剛才所提到的，2025 年的 EBITDA 為 29 億美元，而 2026 年上半年的業績看起來也非常強勁。所有這些都是為了過渡到未來幾年，因為缺乏新的供應，我認為市場將會更加緊張，為 Blue Point 進入市場做好準備。

And that's why in our commentary, we said we see the near, medium and long-term nitrogen dynamics, very strong because we've bridged kind of a little bit of that timeframe where we thought we'd be balanced during this, and it's actually tighter.

所以，我們在評論中說，我們看到近期、中期和長期的氮動態非常強勁，因為我們已經跨越了我們認為在此期間會保持平衡的時間段，而實際上平衡更加緊密。

Related to the tax credit piece for next year, we will have a full year of the carbon capture and sequestration unit operating at Donaldsonville. Last year, we did about 700,000 tons we had sequestered. This year, it will be just under 1.5 million tons that will sequester. And that number is really based on just the amount of process CO2 we have remaining after we do upgrades and with the plant turnaround schedules with ammonia plants being down. So we're going to max out the most we can sequester during that particular timeframe. And right now, we're thinking that's around 1.5 million tons for 2026.

關於明年的稅收抵免，唐納森維爾的碳捕獲和封存裝置將運作一整年。去年，我們封存了約70萬噸碳。今年，碳封存量將略低於150萬噸。這個數字其實只是基於我們在進行升級改造後剩餘的製程二氧化碳量，以及氨廠停產期間的工廠檢修計畫。所以，我們將在那段時間盡可能隔離更多資源。目前，我們認為到 2026 年，這個數字約為 150 萬噸。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

Yeah, I just had a quick question on CBAM, again. So if it goes away, does that make it difficult or maybe impossible to get a premium price for Blue Point? And if it stays, then there's a good chance to get a premium for Blue Point? And then just curious what you're all hearing in terms of timing when we'll find out on a decision for that by the EU.

是的，我剛才還有個關於CBAM的小問題。那麼，如果這種情況消失，是否會使藍點啤酒難以甚至不可能獲得溢價？如果價格不變，那麼藍點啤酒很有可能賣出溢價？然後，我很好奇大家聽到的消息，關於歐盟何時會就此事做出決定，時間安排是怎樣的。

Yeah. So with CBAM, I mean, I think it's more complicated than just whether CBAM stays or not because you have the whole ETS scheme over there that gives free allowances that are beginning to stop. Does that continue where they don't receive those free allowances, which then would basically push European producer cost even higher without CBAM. And I think on the premium side, I'll let Bert comment on this a little bit more, but I think it goes beyond what we're hearing from European customers about buying low-carbon product when it comes to the premium.

是的。所以對於 CBAM 來說，我的意思是，我認為這不僅僅是 CBAM 是否保留的問題，而是整個 ETS 計劃提供的免費配額即將停止的問題。如果他們得不到這些免費補貼，這種情況是否會持續下去？如果沒有CBAM，這基本上會推高歐洲生產商的成本。至於高端產品方面，我還是讓伯特再多說幾句吧，但我覺得這不僅僅關乎我們從歐洲顧客那裡聽到的關於購買低碳產品的想法，還涉及到高端產品的問題。

The premiums in place, we have contracts in place for 2026 in demand for more. So we are constructive. We continue to have further dialogue. I agree with Chris, that this is set in motion, CBAM that is in carbon pricing. This is a train that has left the station, I believe. And so how that transpires to CBAM and our premiums were constructive. And we're even seeing that now across the globe with industrial customers and agricultural customers desiring low-carbon products. So I don't see that decreasing at all.

目前保費水準已經到位，我們已經簽訂了2026年的合同，並且還有更多需求。所以我們是建設性的。我們將繼續進行對話。我同意克里斯的觀點，碳定價機制（CBAM）已經啟動。我想，這是一列已經離開車站的火車。因此，CBAM 和我們的保費是如何達到成效的呢？這很有意義。現在，我們甚至在全球範圍內都看到了這種趨勢，工業客戶和農業客戶都希望獲得低碳產品。所以我完全看不到這種情況會減少。

Got it. And then just one quick follow-up. Given the dynamics you shared for nitrogen this year. Is your bias that pricing kind of stays at this level and maybe the biases may be potentially to go up from here? Or how do you sort of see the kind of the scenarios for potential pricing there?

知道了。然後，還有一個簡短的後續問題。鑑於您分享的今年氮的動態變化。您是否認為價格會保持在這個水平，甚至有可能從這裡開始上漲？或者說，您如何看待那裡的潛在定價情境？

Yeah. I'm never biased. I'm just correct. I think that because this is a global market, and you have so many different dynamics driving the world price structure with different producers and different localities producing this product that don't consume it. And you have some very gigantic producing places like China that are sometimes in and sometimes out of the market. And then you couple that with three to four months of demand in North America of actually using this product in six to seven months of inventory build.

是的。我絕不偏袒任何人。我的說法完全正確。我認為這是因為這是一個全球市場，而且有許多不同的因素在驅動世界價格結構，不同的生產商和不同的地區生產這種產品，但他們並不消費它。還有一些像中國這樣的大型生產國，它們有時會參與市場，有時會退出市場。再加上北美市場對該產品三到四個月的實際需求，而庫存卻需要六到七個月才能建立起來。

And so you have to be a student of the market and follow these things. And we had an opinion coming out of Q4 or in Q4 that because of the supply demand dynamics I had explained earlier, we were on an uptick of pricing, a positive uptick in pricing, and that has transpired. How much further it goes? There's all kinds of expectations in the market today. I think there is still room to go, especially in North America. But I do think there will be a correction in the back half of the year like there always is, as we move from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere of planting.

所以你必須成為市場的學生，並且注意這些事情。我們在第四季末或第四季就認為，由於我之前解釋過的供需動態，價格將會上漲，價格將會上漲，而這種情況已經發生了。還能走多遠？如今市場上存在著各種各樣的期望。我認為還有很大的發展空間，尤其是在北美地區。但我認為，就像往年一樣，下半年會出現調整，因為我們從北半球的播種季節過渡到南半球的播種季節。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

Carbon opportunities and maybe double-click on the agreement with POET for the low carbon fertilizers. Just given some of the proposed changes in the 45V guidelines, practice changes, I'm wondering how you're thinking about low CI fertilizer demand opportunity domestically. And if those 45V tax credits maybe help improve the unit economics or pricing premium that you're seeing here in the US.

碳機遇，或許可以進一步推動與 POET 達成的低碳肥料協議。鑑於 45V 指南中提出的一些變更和實踐變更，我想知道您如何看待國內低 CI 肥料需求機會。如果這些 45V 稅收抵免政策能夠幫助改善您在美國看到的單位經濟效益或價格溢價。

Yeah. So for the -- we missed a little bit of the first part of your question, but it's about low carbon and low carbon in the ag sector and the consumption of that product and the demand profile going forward. And our agreement with POET is exciting. POET is a super strong company and the leader in biofuels. We're also talking to other ethanol producers.

是的。所以，關於——我們漏掉了您問題的第一部分，但它是關於低碳，以及農業領域的低碳，還有該產品的消費以及未來的需求情況。我們與POET達成的協議令人振奮。POET是一家實力雄厚的公司，也是生質燃料領域的領導者。我們也正在與其他乙醇生產商洽談。

But the vision is about the core value chain. And how do you take a low-carbon corn? Well, how do you create that with low carbon fertilizer, who supplies that, we do and who has plenty of supply for our customers, we're building it. And so as you take that low carbon product through the value chain and as the ethanol plants decarbonize themselves, there's a tremendous opportunity for domestic and export ethanol demand to be satisfied by the United States. And we're the one place that can supply that in terms of the gasoline blends globally.

但願景的核心在於核心價值鏈。那麼，如何種植低碳玉米呢？那麼，如何用低碳肥料生產這種肥料呢？誰來供應這種肥料？我們自己供應，而且我們有足夠的肥料供應給我們的客戶，我們正在努力生產。因此，隨著低碳產品沿著價值鏈發展，隨著乙醇工廠實現脫碳，美國將迎來滿足國內和出口乙醇需求的巨大機會。在全球範圍內，我們是唯一能夠供應這種汽油混合物的地方。

And then for low carbon or low CI score fertilizer as well, we're seeing -- we're having conversations. We're seeing demand through the retail sector driven by the CPGs and other food producers as they look at their sustainability goals and Scope 3 and scope emissions.

對於低碳或低CI評分肥料，我們也看到了——我們正在進行討論。我們看到，隨著消費品公司和其他食品生產商關注其永續發展目標以及範圍 3 和範圍 3 的排放，零售業的需求正在增長。

Yeah. And I think anything related to the 45V is just going to be an upside to us. As Bert mentioned, he's hearing enough activity even though at this particular point, low carbon fertilizer is not recognized in the 45V now, that is up for comment right now as the USDA is defining what are those qualifying activities and you would think low-carbon fertilizer, which would be an attractive pathway as it's very easy to verify what is the carbon score of that. So we're hopeful that gets included. But as Bert mentioned, he's already getting interest in that, even with it not being included in the 45V just yet.

是的。我認為任何與 45V 相關的事物對我們來說都是有利的。正如伯特所提到的，他聽到了很多相關活動，儘管目前低碳肥料尚未被納入 45V 計劃，目前正在徵求意見，因為美國農業部正在定義哪些活動符合條件，而低碳肥料應該是一個有吸引力的途徑，因為很容易驗證其碳排放分數。所以我們希望它能被納入其中。但正如伯特所提到的，即使45V還沒有包含這項功能，也已經有人對此產生了興趣。

Super interesting. My follow-up question is a little more boring and on the modeling. So you -- can you just remind us your operating costs in 2026 you threw out the $200 million EBITDA headwind from Yazoo City, I imagine there are some stranded costs or overhead costs that won't be recoverable through the BI insurance just some thoughts around operating costs and any sort of turnaround that we should be thinking about in 2026?

非常有趣。我的後續問題有點枯燥，是關於建模的。所以，您能否提醒我們一下您2026年的營運成本？您提到了亞祖城計畫帶來的2億美元EBITDA逆風，我想應該有一些擱淺成本或間接成本無法透過營業中斷保險收回。關於營運成本以及我們在2026年應該考慮的任何扭虧為盈方案，您有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah. In terms of the BI, our hope is that virtually all of those costs are going to be recovered through BI. We're not expecting anything major outside of it. And as we go through the rest of the year, our turnaround schedule, I think, is projected to be pretty normal in terms of what we would normally expect. So I don't really have anything I want to highlight.

是的。就商業智慧而言，我們希望幾乎所有這些成本都能透過商業智慧得到彌補。除此之外，我們預計不會發生任何重大事件。而隨著今年剩餘時間的到來，我認為我們的周轉計畫預計會與我們通常的預期基本一致。所以我沒有特別想強調的。

Christopher Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯托弗·帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Just a short-term question and a lot of questions for me. The short term, just Bert. Going back to some of the things you were discussing before, how are you thinking about order book flexibility into this year? I mean farmers are just now getting some deferred direct payments. You're waiting news RVO EO15 and then you mentioned India, Iran, Trinidad out, Texas capacity and it seems like there are more moving parts now than in previous years, at least going back to '22, let's say. How are you thinking about that with your team? Are you leaving some flexibility as you enter spring? Or are you happy with prices where they are now?

我只有一個簡短的問題，但其實我有很多問題。短期內，就只有伯特。回到您之前討論的一些問題，您如何看待今年的訂單簿彈性？我的意思是，農民現在才剛收到一些延期發放的直接補助。你在等待 RVO EO15 的消息，然後你提到了印度、伊朗、特立尼達和多巴哥，德克薩斯州的產能，現在似乎比往年（至少從 2022 年算起）有更多變數。你們團隊對此有何想法？您在春季到來之際是否留有一些彈性？或者您對目前的價格感到滿意？

Yeah. In general, we're pleased with our order book. And as I highlighted earlier, coming out of 2025 into 2026, we carried some inventory in to 2026 on purpose because of these dynamics that we're laying out that -- and this has been the discussion. We just finished the TFI, The Fertilizer Institute meetings in Orlando this week with all of our major customers. And the message is we're heading into a logistics game that as good as the weather has been that it's been warm. We're seeing applications already start Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. And I think that's going to be even more pronounced and we could see in early spring, similar to what we did in 2012.

是的。總體而言，我們對目前的訂單情況感到滿意。正如我之前強調的那樣，從 2025 年到 2026 年，我們特意將一些庫存延續到 2026 年，因為我們正在闡述這些動態——這也是我們一直在討論的內容。本週我們剛在奧蘭多與所有主要客戶一起參加了肥料協會 (TFI) 會議。而傳遞的訊息是，我們即將進入一場物流競賽，儘管天氣一直很好，很溫暖。我們已經看到來自德克薩斯州、堪薩斯州、俄克拉荷馬州和內布拉斯加州的申請開始出現了。我認為這將更加明顯，我們可能會在早春看到類似 2012 年的情況。

If that is the case or even if it's normal, we're approaching where the need to get products where you have difficulties on the river due to low water. You have, we believe, shortages or lower inventories in the upper Midwest. There's been a number of plant issues in our sector in Canada and through the winter storm that came through in January, we think there's been some downtime. All that equates to lower levels of available product and we're having 93 million, 94 million, 95 million acres of corn.

如果情況真是如此，或者即便這是正常現象，我們也即將面臨這樣的局面：由於河流水位低，運輸困難，我們需要將產品運送到這些地區。我們認為，你們中西部北部地區存在庫存短缺或庫存量偏低的情況。加拿大我們這個行業出現了一些工廠問題，而且由於一月份的冬季風暴，我們認為也造成了一些停工。所有這些都意味著可用產品數量減少，而我們現在只有 9,300 萬、9,400 萬、9,500 萬英畝的玉米。

So in terms of the flexibility, we're all about execution right now, identifying where the product needs to be, where are the orders placed against our terminals and plants and communicating with our customers where they believe they're going to be requiring tons and then communicating about those -- getting those orders placed and in the process and working with our freight providers, the railroads, the barge companies to move it. So this is all about execution from now forward.

因此，就靈活性而言，我們現在的重點是執行，確定產品需要運往何處，訂單已下達至我們的碼頭和工廠，並與客戶溝通他們認為需要多少噸貨物的地方，然後就這些訂單進行溝通——下達這些訂單，並在過程中與我們的貨運供應商、鐵路公司、駁船公司合作運輸貨物。所以，接下來的一切關鍵都在於執行。

And perhaps a slightly longer-term question. There's obviously been a few questions here already on CBAM. But switching over to the other side of the Blue Point equation and heading to the east, Japan has actually been moving as far as I can tell, further forward, you've seen as of December medi certifications, further go forward on a $20 billion hydrogen hub, a lot of those consumers and potential, have lost supply agreements with others based on three project cancellations, one long-term deferral and one final blue -- blue ammonia facility that's, let's say, currently a flux for the next six months. As much as everybody is focusing on Europe, do you think the buy side and the Street is missing something more pronounced in Japan that's still ongoing?

或許還可以提出一個更長遠的問題。顯然，CBAM 上已經出現了一些問題。但換個角度來看，從藍點方程式的另一端，向東看去，據我所知，日本其實一直在向前邁進。從 12 月的 MEDI 認證來看，一個價值 200 億美元的氫能中心計畫也在進一步推進。然而，由於三個項目被取消，一個項目被長期推遲，以及最後一個藍點——藍氨工廠項目——目前在未來六個月內都處於動盪之中，許多消費者和潛在客戶已經失去了與其他供應商的供應協議。儘管大家都在關注歐洲，但你認為買方和華爾街是否忽略了日本仍在持續發生的更顯著的變化？

Yeah. I think it's an excellent point, Chris. I mean, as we mentioned every one years ago thought that there was just going to be this big wave of low-carbon supply coming online. And we had said, it's easy to announce a project, it's difficult to execute on it. And so as you mentioned, a lot of those projects have fallen off.

是的。克里斯，我覺得你說的很有道理。我的意思是，正如我們幾年前提到的那樣，每個人都認為將會出現一波大規模的低碳能源供應浪潮。我們曾說過，宣布一個專案很容易，執行起來卻很難。正如你所提到的，很多這樣的項目都夭折了。

Now what we're continuing to see a lot of interest in, and it goes beyond Japan and Asia, but it is in low carbon. And I think the JERA and the Mitsui and others over there are the leaders in this. I think more importantly, it's not only the low carbon aspect of it, it's for a new demand source. And that's something that when you look at the Medi agreement and what they were able to do with the contract for difference, their 60% of this new plant is going to a new demand source that didn't exist a year ago.

現在我們看到大家對低碳領域持續表現出濃厚的興趣，這種興趣不僅限於日本和亞洲。我認為 JERA、三井以及其他一些公司是這方面的領導者。我認為更重要的是，它不僅具有低碳環保的優點，還能帶來新的需求來源。當你查看 Medi 的協議以及他們透過差價合約所取得的成就時，你會發現，這家新工廠 60% 的產能都流向了一年前還不存在的新需求來源。

And so we're optimistic that we continue to build out on that along with continuing to see additional demand growth in the legacy agricultural business of sort of that 1% to 2% a year. And all those factors are why we are suggesting that longer term, not enough supply coming on, new demand centers coming on and then just the regular legacy growth that we're going to have a very tight market when Blue Point does come up.

因此，我們樂觀地認為，我們將繼續在此基礎上發展壯大，同時傳統農業業務的需求也將繼續保持每年 1% 到 2% 的成長。正是由於這些因素，我們才認為從長遠來看，供應不足、新的需求中心出現，以及常規的傳統成長，當 Blue Point 建成時，市場將會非常緊張。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

盧卡斯·博蒙特，瑞銀集團。

I just wanted to go back to the sort of difference between the pricing outlook and the cost curve. So I mean, we've had like strong pricing to start the year. Cost care has moved up a bit, but not as much. And I mean the sort of premium there is going to widen. And as we look further out, the energy futures curve continues to ship lower kind of now into like the $7 to $8.50 range kind of later in the decade.

我只是想回到價格前景和成本曲線之間的差異。我的意思是，今年年初我們的定價策略非常強勁。醫療成本略有上漲，但漲幅不大。我的意思是，這種溢價將會進一步擴大。展望未來，能源期貨曲線將繼續走低，預計到本世紀末將跌至 7 至 8.50 美元的區間。

So I just wanted to sort of get your view on how is that sort of resolved with your view of sustained market shortages on the supply side? Does this kind of need to correct in some way? Or do you expect it to persist, I guess, through this year and then into the medium term?

所以我想了解您對持續的市場供應短缺問題的看法，以及您如何看待這個問題？這是否需要以某種方式進行修正？或者您預計這種情況會持續到今年年底，然後延續到中期？

Yeah. Maybe I'll start. So on that, from a longer-term standpoint, there is the gas differential that you're talking about. And today, that sits at around $7 to $8 per MMBtu delta. We do expect that, that will converge a little bit with Henry Hub, by no means do we think that goes away or flattens to a level that doesn't keep us economically competitive. But I think there's another side of that, that we've just been talking about on many of these questions through here, which is the SMB side.

是的。或許我會開始。所以從長遠來看，這就是你所說的天然氣差價。而如今，這個價格大約是每百萬英熱單位 (MMBtu) 7 至 8 美元。我們預計，亨利樞紐的發展會略有趨同，但我們絕不認為這種情況會消失或趨於平緩，以至於無法維持我們的經濟競爭力。但我認為還有另一面，也就是我們剛才在很多問題上討論過的，那就是中小企業方面。

So yes, you have the COGS side of what it would cost, but you have to bring on new capital in order to meet that demand growth without even clean energy growth coming into this, just the incremental growth of demand is going to push the cost curve demand side farther to the right, having to pull in either higher cost production than we have today or require new plants to be built. And like I said, our plants alone at $3.7 billion, capital costs are only going up. And with that, people are going to expect returns.

所以，是的，成本方面需要考慮銷貨成本，但即使不考慮清潔能源的增長，為了滿足需求增長，也需要引入新的資本，僅僅是需求的增量增長就會將成本曲線的需求側進一步推向右側，要么需要比現在更高的生產成本，要么需要建造新的工廠。正如我所說，光是我們的工廠就耗資 37 億美元，資本成本只會不斷上升。因此，人們自然會期望獲得回報。

So I think as we look at -- we expect the natural gas differential to continue, but we also expect that we're going to see demand move to the right on the cost curve and also the cost curve to be supported by new plants that are going to be needed and required or high-cost production to remain in.

所以我認為，當我們觀察時——我們預計天然氣價差將繼續存在，但我們也預計需求將沿著成本曲線向右移動，成本曲線也將得到新工廠的支持，這些工廠是必需的，或者高成本的生產將繼續存在。

And that also doesn't consider just what's going on dynamically around the world with energy and shortages of energy in certain locales like Trinidad or high-cost energy in Europe and sub-optimally operating at 80% or less as well as other specific locations of limited production. Brazil is going to be bringing back. They're supposedly, their plants that would have been -- not been operating over the last several years.

而且，這也沒有考慮到世界各地能源的動態變化，例如特立尼達等地的能源短缺，歐洲能源成本高昂，以及部分地區能源利用率不足（80% 或更低），還有其他一些地區能源生產有限。巴西將會把它帶回來。據稱，他們的工廠在過去幾年裡一直沒有運作。

And so supply is limited that we see in the forward, demand continues to grow, but also supply continues to be cut in other locations, making for a very solid structural market, as Chris explained.

因此，正如克里斯解釋的那樣，我們看到，遠期供應有限，需求持續增長，但其他地區的供應也在持續減少，從而形成了一個非常穩固的結構性市場。

All right. And then I guess just maybe a bit of a short-term question on the Middle East tensions with Iran. So I mean, they're about 10% of the global urea export markets. I guess, how would you see the market dealing with any disruption to production there and the impact on pricing? And I guess how would that sort of need to flow through from a timing perspective in terms of, I guess, disruption to the shipments before it's really starting to have an impact and how long it would be down.

好的。然後，我想問一個關於中東地區與伊朗緊張局勢的短期問題。我的意思是，它們約佔全球尿素出口市場的 10%。我想問，您認為如果當地生產中斷，市場將如何應對，以及對價格的影響？我想，從時間安排的角度來看，這種中斷需要如何發展，例如在真正開始產生影響之前，貨運會受到怎樣的影響，以及中斷會持續多久。

Yeah. If you look at the Middle East and the suppliers that are located there, the producers, are in Iran, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE for urea, that's about 20 million tons. So in a globally traded ocean going traded ton, that's about 35% of the world's supply that goes through the Strait of Hormuz or close to it.

是的。如果你看看中東以及位於那裡的供應商和生產商，尿素的生產商在伊朗、阿曼、卡達、沙烏地阿拉伯和阿聯酋，產量約 2,000 萬噸。因此，在全球遠洋貿易中，每噸貨物約有 35% 的供應量要經過霍爾木茲海峽或附近海域。

However, you also have to look at ammonia where those same countries referenced are about 5 million tons or also 30% of the globally traded ammonia ton. And so if something were to happen, the constraining factor to supply would be pronounced. As well as LNG, about 25% of the world's LNG also transit through that the Strait. So if conflict were to occur, it would be, I would think, even more difficult or more challenging than the current situation in Russia and Ukraine and moving out of the Black Sea.

但是，你還得看看氨，這些國家氨的產量約為 500 萬噸，佔全球氨貿易總量的 30%。因此，如果發生什麼情況，供應的限制因素就會很明顯。除了液化天然氣外，全球約 25% 的液化天然氣也透過該海峽運輸。因此，如果發生衝突，我認為，這將比目前俄羅斯和烏克蘭的局勢以及從黑海撤軍更加困難或更具挑戰性。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

This is Justin Pellegrino on for Vincent. Thank you for all the commentary on where prices and market commentary are headed over the last few weeks. But I kind of wanted to step back and go back to Blue Point for a second. You mentioned earlier in the call that as you kind of started going through the process, permitting or whatever, that the timeline may have shifted around a little bit.

這是賈斯汀·佩萊格里諾替補文森特上場。感謝大家在過去幾週對價格走勢和市場評論的所有見解。但我當時有點想退後一步，回到藍點鎮待一會兒。您之前在通話中提到，隨著您開始辦理相關手續，例如審核或其他事項，時間安排可能會有所調整。

And I was just curious, where have the pressure points been as you started to go through the process, whether that be tariffs, labor, whatever it may be? And then can you kind of just flag anything that we should be watching as that project starts to progress through the stages and anything else that's worth talking about there?

我只是好奇，在你們開始推動這個過程的過程中，遇到的壓力點在哪裡，無論是關稅、勞工問題，還是其他什麼問題？那麼，您能否指出該專案在各個階段推進過程中，有哪些值得我們關注的地方，以及其他值得討論的內容？

Yeah. The timing really hasn't shifted at all. So our expectation is still in 2029, the plant will come on by timing, I mean timing of payments. In which case, as you get closer into these larger projects and you're actually talking to the -- whether it be the modular yards to civil contractors, you've engaged different things like that, you have a better idea of when those payments would be going out.

是的。時間安排其實完全沒有改變。所以我們仍然預計到 2029 年，工廠會按時投產，我的意思是按時付款。在這種情況下，隨著你越來越接近這些大型項目，並且你實際上與——無論是模組化場地還是土木承包商，你已經參與了各種類似的工作，你就會更好地了解這些款項何時會支付。

So nothing's changed from our timeline on the particular project. I think as far as milestones go, as I mentioned, we've pretty much achieved the milestones that we have in place where the next big ones would be the Air permit and Army Corps permit as we look to build the heavy haul bridge that will bring the modules over. Additionally, as we start to do some of the civil work, which our expectation is here in the next couple of months, we'll start moving ground, driving piles. We've already driven test piles.

所以，就這個專案而言，我們的時間表沒有任何改變。我認為就里程碑而言，正如我所提到的，我們已經基本實現了既定的里程碑，接下來的重大里程碑將是獲得空軍許可證和陸軍工程兵團許可證，因為我們需要建造一座重型運輸橋，將這些模組運過來。此外，隨著我們開始進行一些土木工程（預計在接下來的幾個月內完成），我們將開始進行地面施工和打樁。我們已經打好了測試樁。

So I think right now, there isn't much of these milestones other than the permitting process, which, like I said, our expectation is that we will have that going here in the next couple of months.

所以我覺得目前除了審批流程之外，並沒有太多里程碑式的進展，就像我剛才說的，我們預計在接下來的幾個月裡，審批流程將會啟動。

The other part that I should mention is of our $3.7 billion in total capital spend, we still have about $500 million of that, that is built in as contingency. So not knowing really where tariffs are going to fall out based on Supreme Court and also that a lot of this lead time -- longer lead time stuff doesn't come for 3 years, but we do have a sizable contingency built into this particular project.

我還要提一下，在我們37億美元的總資本支出中，還有大約5億美元作為緊急資金預留出來。因此，我們並不清楚最高法院的裁決將如何影響關稅，而且許多需要較長準備時間的項目要三年後才能完成，但我們在這個特定項目中確實預留了相當大的應急資金。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

埃德蘭·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

Just one quick one for me. We've had some affordability issues with phosphate. And of course, you don't produce that, but you know what's going on there. And with urea prices moving higher, like any concerns about affordability in nitrogen, like is it better to be as affordable as possible just to prevent a bunch of issues or the market will just determine where nitrogen lands on the affordability spectrum, and we just have to deal with it?

就我一個問題。我們在磷酸鹽的價格方面遇到了一些問題。當然，你不會親手製造那種東西，但你知道那裡發生了什麼事。隨著尿素價格上漲，人們對氮肥價格的承受能力也產生了擔憂，例如，為了避免一系列問題，是否應該盡可能降低氮肥的價格，還是市場會決定氮肥在價格承受能力範圍內的位置，而我們只能接受？

Yeah. Edlain, I think you raised an important issue because we're a part of a value chain that the farmer plays the most important role because he or she is planting and harvesting and storing many times those crops and then there's a payout. And so we do study that. We do study where that lays out for the major crops, corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sugar, at least for North America and what those economics look like. We are in a global market, however, and product moves pretty freely around the world from the Middle East to North America, from North America to Europe from Russia to North -- to the United States and like same thing with corn and soybeans.

是的。艾德萊恩，我認為你提出了一個重要的問題，因為我們身處價值鏈之中，農民扮演著最重要的角色，因為他或她種植、收穫、多次儲存這些作物，然後才能獲得回報。所以我們會研究這個問題。我們會研究主要農作物（玉米、大豆、小麥、棉花、糖）的種植情況，至少在北美地區是如此，以及這些作物的經濟狀況如何。然而，我們身處全球市場，產品在世界各地自由流通，從中東到北美，從北美到歐洲，從俄羅斯到北美，再到美國，玉米和大豆也是如此。

And so I think we're aware of that. We're looking at what that means for -- in terms of return on variable costs, return on full cost. And I think the Trump money that flowed down from Washington is helpful for in terms of balance of payments. I do think there are some credit issues in certain parts of at least the United States, I'm aware of that retailers are holding and those are conversations with how they balance their year, and so yes, we're aware, yes, we're following it. And yes, we want to be a part of the solution for the American and Canadian farmer.

所以我覺得我們都意識到了這一點。我們正在研究這對於變動成本回報和總成本回報意味著什麼。我認為從華盛頓流下的川普資金對國際收支平衡是有幫助的。我確實認為至少在美國某些地區存在一些信貸問題，我知道零售商正在討論如何平衡全年的收支，所以是的，我們知道，是的，我們正在關注。是的，我們希望成為美國和加拿大農民解決方案的一部分。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

馬修‧德約，美國銀行。

I don't know, you had mentioned Brazil, and so I wanted to tap in a little bit on that and the plants that were being restarted. I know it's not your plants, and so companies don't often like to highlight or talk about that a little bit. But at least from a headline basis, there's like 1 million tons of urea in that production. And effectively, it was supposed to be started up or starting to start up by the back half of last year.

我不知道，你之前提到了巴西，所以我想稍微談談那方面以及那些正在重新開工的工廠。我知道這不是你們的植物，所以公司通常不太願意強調或談論這一點。但至少從表面上看，該生產線大約生產了100萬噸尿素。實際上，該計畫原本應該在去年下半年啟動或開始啟動。

Seems like you're calling for Brazilian urea to be flat on an import basis year-over-year. Is there some expectation that growth is in there? Or are you treating that plant -- those plants is 0? Or is it they'll take too long to ramp and demand will offset. I'm just kind of wondering your thoughts on that. And in general, I guess, like recommissioning in the commissioning cycle in plants and how that's creating or can create gaps in supply.

看來你是希望巴西尿素的進口量能夠逐年保持穩定。人們是否預期其中會有成長？還是你在治療那株植物──那些植物的治療效果為0？或者說，他們的產能提升速度太慢，需求會被抵銷。我只是想聽聽你對此的看法。總的來說，我想，就像工廠調試週期中的重新調試一樣，這會造成或可能導致供應缺口。

Yeah. Brazil has been an amazing story over the last 25 years with their consumption of urea and especially on imports, because they become one of the drivers of the globe of demand. But if you go back to those earlier years, it was about 2 million, 2.5 million tons of imports to today, almost 8 million tons of imports, but parallel to that ammonium sulfate coming in at also around 8 million tons. So on the end molecule or the end product, the nitrogen product coming into Brazil has grown substantially. Ammonium nitrate being fairly consistent.

是的。過去 25 年，巴西的尿素消費量，尤其是進口量，堪稱驚人，因為它已成為全球需求的主要動力之一。但如果你回顧早年，當時的進口量約為 200 萬至 250 萬噸，而如今的進口量已接近 800 萬噸，與此同時，硫酸銨的進口量也約為 800 萬噸。因此，最終分子或最終產品，進入巴西的氮產品數量大幅成長。硝酸銨的性質相當穩定。

And so what has happened, though, during that time period, these plants are -- you have the plant in Parana -- close to Paranagua and in Camacari and some of the plants in [Cejipe] that are up north. Those plants are not well placed, at least the northern plants to where demand is, and they've struggled to operate over the years, one, that they're inefficient, two, that their high logistics costs to move the product to the high-demand areas.

然而，在那段時間裡，這些植物——例如巴拉那州的植物——靠近巴拉那瓜州和卡馬卡里州，以及北部塞希佩州的一些植物。這些工廠的選址並不理想，至少北方的工廠離需求地不遠，多年來一直難以運營，原因有二：一是效率低下，二是將產品運往高需求地區的物流成本很高。

Brazil continues to grow in acres and acres planted and especially with the double cropping being economically viable. And so we do see these plants coming on, and they've also talked about reinitiating construction at Yazoo that was stopped about 10 or 15 years ago.

巴西的種植面積持續成長，尤其是雙季種植在經濟上是可行的。因此，我們看到這些工廠正在建設中，他們也談到要重新啟動亞祖核電廠的建設，該電廠的建設在大約 10 到 15 年前就停止了。

And so Brazil has the capability. What they don't have is the gas where these plants are producing or enough gas that's been an issue as well. So they get to an initiative of the Lula government and Petrobras to continue to invest and serve their domestic farmers as they can. But Brazil will still be a major importer, a major driver of urea demand or nitrogen demand worldwide.

所以巴西有能力做到這一點。他們缺乏的是這些工廠生產的天然氣，或者天然氣供應不足，這也是一個問題。因此，他們響應了盧拉政府和巴西石油公司的倡議，繼續盡可能地投資和服務國內農民。但巴西仍將是主要的進口國，是全球尿素需求或氮肥需求的主要動力。

Yeah. And just from the urea supply side in Brazil, I'm probably a little more skeptical than others on this just from my time in manufacturing and what the cost would be to bring plants that have been idle, but likely were not necessarily taken down just because of the number of years they've been down. I think the capital -- the upfront capital cost to do that and then the efficiency of those particular plants after they are up would cause a lot of issues. So I'm still in a wait and see what happens with those particular facilities.

是的。就巴西的尿素供應而言，我可能比其他人對此持懷疑態度，這源於我在製造業的經歷，以及將那些閒置多年（但可能並非因為停產而被拆除）的工廠重新投入使用所需的成本。我認為，前期所需的資本成本，以及這些工廠建成後的效率，都會造成許多問題。所以我還在觀望這些設施的具體情況。

Now loan on that, Bert, I just wanted to know what the -- your input.

好了，伯特，我只是想知道──你的看法。

David Symonds, BNP.

David Symonds，英國國家黨。

I just wanted to ask on your assumption of a 4 million to 6 million tonne export quota from China in 2026. That's pretty much flat year-on-year versus what they did in 2025. And my understanding is they've got 4 million tonnes of additional capacity coming online at some point through the year and I think inventories are still quite high. So I've been penciling in a little bit more than 6 million, like 6 million, 7 million tonnes. Just curious to hear your thoughts on that.

我只是想問一下，您假設2026年中國出口配額為400萬至600萬噸。與 2025 年的預期相比，今年的預期基本上持平。據我了解，他們今年稍後還將新增 400 萬噸產能，我認為庫存仍然很高。所以我大致估算了一下，大概是 600 多萬噸，600 萬到 700 萬噸。只是好奇想聽聽你的看法。

I think that's possible. I think we've seen a different China in most years from the heydays of their export activity in 2015, '16, '17 to really pulling that back and recognizing the economic and political benefit of exporting that urea is fairly de minimis. But keeping that product in country for the Chinese farmers and the growth of Chinese production has been important to them. So I think there is a differential between the domestic price and the international opportunity.

我認為這是有可能的。我認為，從 2015 年、2016 年、2017 年出口活動的鼎盛時期到如今大幅縮減出口規模並認識到出口尿素的經濟和政治利益微乎其微，近年來我們看到的中國與以往大不相同。但對中國農民來說，維持中國產品的供應和促進中國製造業的發展至關重要。所以我認為國內價格和國際機會之間存在差異。

Last year, you're correct, it was around 5 million tons of exports, and we're penciling in. We're being conservative to say that, that maybe something that the government is initiating. But if you take their capacity and run it at an 80% plus or minus run rate, they really don't have that much to export, and that's about the run rate they've been running over the last several years. So I would say your number might be a little high, but we'll have to have a coffee over that number next at the end of the year.

去年，你說得對，出口量約為500萬噸，我們正在進行估算。我們保守估計，這可能是政府正在發起的行動。但如果你按照他們的產能，以 80% 左右的運行率運行，他們實際上並沒有太多產品可以出口，而這差不多是他們過去幾年一直保持的運行率。所以我覺得你的數字可能有點高，不過我們年底的時候再一起喝杯咖啡討論一下這個數字吧。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Martin Jarosick for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給馬丁·雅羅西克，請他作閉幕致詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences.

謝謝各位今天蒞臨。我們期待在即將召開的會議上見到您。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有個愉快的一天。