Century Aluminum Co (CENX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending today's Century Aluminum Company third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Sarah and I'll be your moderator for today. (Operator Instructions)

大家好。感謝您參加今天的世紀鋁業公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫莎拉，我將擔任今天的主持人。（操作員說明）

I would like to pass the conference over to Ryan Crawford.

我想把會議交給瑞安·克勞福德（Ryan Crawford）。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call.

謝謝你，接線生。大家下午好，歡迎參加電話會議。

I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; Jerry Bialek, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer.

今天，世紀公司總裁兼執行長傑西·加里 (Jesse Gary) 也加入了我的行列。 Jerry Bialek，執行副總裁兼財務長；財務資深副總裁兼財務長 Peter Trpkovski。

After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD.

在我們準備好意見後，我們將回答您的問題。請注意，今天的簡報可在我們的網站 www. centuryaluminum.com 上取得。我們使用我們的網站作為揭露有關公司的重要資訊並遵守 FD 法規的一種方式。

Turning to slide 1, please take a moment to review the cautionary statements shown here with respect to forward-looking statements and Non-GAAP financial measures contained in today's discussion.

轉向投影片 1，請花點時間回顧此處顯示的有關今天討論中包含的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則財務指標的警示性陳述。

And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑西。

Thanks, Ryan, and thanks to everyone for joining.

謝謝瑞安，也謝謝大家的加入。

Before we get started today, we are very sad to report a safety incident that resulted in a fatality at our Mt. Holly smelter. The loss of a team member is devastating to all of us at Century and it is especially painful given our collective commitment and focus on safety. Our late colleague's family will remain firmly in our thoughts and prayers. This event reinforces the need for us to critically examine how we operate and conduct ourselves and commit to making needed improvements without condition. It will require dedication and leadership from every part of our organization and a personal commitment from each and every one of us.

在今天開始之前，我們非常遺憾地報告一起導致我們 Mt. Holly 冶煉廠死亡的安全事故。失去一名團隊成員對 Century 的所有人來說都是毀滅性的打擊，考慮到我們對安全的集體承諾和關注，這尤其令人痛苦。我們已故同事的家人將永遠留在我們的思念和祈禱之中。這一事件強化了我們批判性地審視我們的運作和行為方式的必要性，並致力於無條件地做出必要的改進。這需要我們組織每個部門的奉獻和領導，以及我們每個人的個人承諾。

Okay. I'll start the call today by reviewing the strong current aluminum and alumina market conditions before turning to our excellent third quarter performance. I'll also discuss the additional benefits we will receive under the new section, 45X guidance, before Jerry takes you through the detailed financial results. I'll then wrap up and open the call for questions.

好的。在今天的電話會議中，我將首先回顧當前強勁的鋁和氧化鋁市場狀況，然後再討論我們出色的第三季業績。在傑瑞向您介紹詳細的財務表現之前，我還將討論我們將在新的 45X 指導下獲得的額外好處。然後我將結束並開始提問。

Century produced excellent results in the third quarter, generating adjusted EBITDA of $104 million, which includes the impact of the updated 45X guidance. Overall, improving realized aluminum prices, both at the LME and regional premium level, and falling carbon prices drove increased profitability in the quarter and will continue to benefit our fourth quarter performance. As a reminder, LME prices roll through our results on a three-month lagged basis. So the benefit from recent spot prices above $2,600 per tonne will not positively impact our financial results until Q1 of next year.

Century 在第三季取得了出色的業績，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.04 億美元，其中包括更新的 45 倍指引的影響。總體而言，倫敦金屬交易所和區域溢價水平的實際鋁價的提高以及碳價的下降推動了本季度盈利能力的提高，並將繼續有利於我們第四季度的業績。提醒一下，倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 價格以三個月的滯後期為基礎滾動反映我們的結果。因此，在明年第一季之前，近期現貨價格高於每噸 2,600 美元的收益不會對我們的財務表現產生正面影響。

Turning to slide 4. Global aluminum prices were largely range bound during the third quarter before Western central bank actions and Chinese stimulus drove both the LME and regional premiums higher. In late September, China announced a number of monetary and fiscal stimulus programs that drove an immediate improvement in global aluminum prices, which rose to average $2,600 per tonne in October.

轉到投影片 4。在西方央行的行動和中國的刺激措施推動倫敦金屬交易所和地區溢價走高之前，第三季全球鋁價基本上維持區間波動。9月下旬，中國宣布了多項貨幣和財政刺激計劃，推動全球鋁價立即改善，10月鋁價平均上漲至每噸2,600美元。

Turning to page 5. Global aluminum demand has already been at record levels in 2024 driven by strong global trends towards electrification and lightweighting. Overall, we estimate that 2024 global demand growth of 3% will accelerate further in 2025 as Western markets begin to improve on the backs of central bank action and Chinese demand growth continues to accelerate as stimulus programs and funds are dispersed.

翻到第5頁。在全球電氣化和輕量化強勁趨勢的推動下，2024 年全球鋁需求已達到創紀錄水準。總體而言，我們預計 2024 年全球需求將成長 3%，2025 年將進一步加速，因為西方市場在央行行動的支持下開始改善，而中國需求成長隨著刺激計畫和資金的分散而繼續加速。

Meanwhile, aluminum supply remains challenged, with China approaching its 45 million-tonne production cap and limited announced new projects outside of China. We believe demand growth will continue to outpace supply in 2025 and for years to come, moving the market back into deficit. With inventories already near multiyear lows, these supply deficits should continue to create a favorable aluminum price environment in the coming years.

同時，鋁供應仍面臨挑戰，中國已接近 4,500 萬噸產量上限，且在中國境外宣布的新項目有限。我們認為，2025 年及未來幾年需求成長將持續超過供應，導致市場重新陷入赤字。由於庫存已接近多年低點，這些供應短缺應在未來幾年繼續創造有利的鋁價環境。

Turning to the bauxite and alumina markets. The spot Atlantic alumina price today stands at $715 per tonne, an all-time record. Alumina prices continued their upward march in Q3 and into Q4 as a number of market disruptions paired with low alumina inventory levels globally have created a very tight market.

轉向鋁土礦和氧化鋁市場。今天大西洋氧化鋁現貨價格為每噸 715 美元，創歷史紀錄。氧化鋁價格在第三季和第四季繼續上漲，因為一系列市場混亂加上全球氧化鋁庫存水準較低，造成了市場非常緊張。

There have been a number of supply disruptions this year in Australia from the Kwinana Refinery curtailment to force majeure events and regulatory issues in bauxite permitting at a number of other Australian refineries.

由於奎納納煉油廠的停產、不可抗力事件以及澳洲其他一些煉油廠鋁土礦許可的監管問題，今年澳洲出現了多次供應中斷。

We've also seen refinery disruptions in India driven by both regulatory and operational challenges.

我們也看到印度煉油廠因監管和營運挑戰而中斷。

On the bauxite side, China has become increasingly reliant on the seaborne bauxite market given a 16% decrease in year-to-date Chinese bauxite production following continued declines in domestic ore quality and increased safety and environmental inspections from regulators.

在鋁土礦方面，由於國內礦石品質持續下降以及監管機構加強安全和環保檢查，今年迄今中國鋁土礦產量下降了16%，中國對海運鋁土礦市場的依賴越來越大。

Both the bauxite and alumina markets have recently been impacted further by supply disruptions out of Guinea where one of the largest exporters announced a halt to bauxite shipments earlier this month following export permitting issues. To our knowledge, this issue remains unresolved and highlights how sensitive the bauxite and alumina markets remain to geopolitics, with Guinea alone accounting for roughly 30% of global bauxite production and around 70% of Chinese imports.

鋁土礦和氧化鋁市場最近都受到幾內亞供應中斷的進一步影響，幾內亞最大的出口商之一本月稍早宣布，因出口許可問題而停止鋁土礦運輸。據我們所知，這個問題仍未解決，凸顯了鋁土礦和氧化鋁市場對地緣政治的敏感度，僅幾內亞就佔全球鋁土礦產量的約 30%，約佔中國進口量的 70%。

Remember, Century no longer has exposure to spot alumina prices following the acquisition of our controlling interest in Jamalco. With all of our smelters, alumina requirements sourced directly from Jamalco or under our long-term LME-linked supply contracts. Needless to say, we are very happy to have Jamalco in our asset portfolio in markets like this.

請記住，在收購 Jamalco 的控股權後，Century 不再受現貨氧化鋁價格影響。我們所有的冶煉廠的氧化鋁需求均直接從 Jamalco 採購或根據我們與 LME 相關的長期供應合約採購。不用說，我們很高興 Jamalco 加入我們在這樣的市場的資產組合。

Turning to page 6, you can see that in the US and Jamaica, our major raw material price inputs continue to be constructive. Natural gas storage levels remain well situated heading into the winter season with inventories significantly above last year and near five-year highs, leaving the forward curve well below $3 throughout the coming winter months. Gas prices at these levels should be supported for continued low Indi Hub energy prices well into next year.

翻到第 6 頁，您可以看到在美國和牙買加，我們的主要原料價格輸入仍然是建設性的。進入冬季，天然氣儲存水準仍保持良好狀態，庫存顯著高於去年，接近五年高點，使得未來冬季的遠期曲線遠低於 3 美元。由於 Indi Hub 能源價格在明年持續走低，這些水準的天然氣價格應該會受到支撐。

Turning to operations, we saw strong performance across our smelters in the third quarter. Operations at Sebree and Mt. Holly remained stable in Q3, which is a testament to our operating teams during these very hot end-of-summer months.

談到運營，我們看到第三季我們的冶煉廠表現強勁。Sebree 和 Mt. Holly 的營運在第三季度保持穩定，這證明了我們的營運團隊在炎熱的夏末幾個月中的表現。

With respect to our Hawesville facility, we have received a number of significant third-party inquiries regarding potential redevelopment of the site. The site has several unique attributes including its energy infrastructure that make it attractive for potential acquirers including, among others, its potential for AI data center development.

關於我們的霍斯維爾工廠，我們收到了許多有關該場地潛在重建的重要第三方詢問。該地點具有幾個獨特的屬性，包括其能源基礎設施，使其對潛在收購者俱有吸引力，其中包括其人工智慧資料中心開發的潛力。

While we still believe the site has significant value as an option for restart and higher aluminum price environments, we have engaged financial advisers and launched a formal process to evaluate strategic alternatives and potential value to help us in our overall evaluation of the site. We will keep you updated on our progress here.

雖然我們仍然相信該場地作為重啟和鋁價上漲環境的選擇具有重要價值，但我們已聘請財務顧問並啟動了正式流程來評估戰略替代方案和潛在價值，以幫助我們對該場地進行整體評估。我們將在這裡向您通報我們的最新進展。

In Iceland, low rainfall and snow melt over the summer months have left reservoirs below normal levels and led power suppliers to announce curtailments, including Grundartangi through May of 2025. We currently expect these curtailments will reduce our power consumption by about 30 megawatts in Q4. Volume of Grundartangi should be flat in Q4 versus Q3 as these curtailments were implemented in the third quarter. The financial impact of the curtailment is included in our outlook on page 11 and our updated full-year volume guidance is in the Appendix of this presentation.

在冰島，夏季降雨量少和融雪導致水庫水位低於正常水位，導致電力供應商宣布停電，其中包括到 2025 年 5 月的 Grundartangi 電力。我們目前預計這些限電將使我們第四季的電力消耗減少約 30 兆瓦。由於這些削減是在第三季度實施的，第四季度 Grundartangi 的銷量應該與第三季度持平。限電的財務影響包含在我們第 11 頁的展望中，我們更新的全年銷售指引包含在本簡報的附錄中。

At Jamalco, the refinery is fully recovered from the impact of Hurricane Beryl in early July. The team did an excellent job quickly restoring the plant to normal production levels and completing required repairs on the port facilities, which returned to normal service in mid-September. I'd like to congratulate the Jamalco team for their exceptional management through the hurricane and its aftermath. Completing the port repairs quickly, safely, and without injury is really quite an achievement.

Jamalco 的煉油廠已從 7 月初颶風 Beryl 的影響中完全恢復。該團隊表現出色，迅速將工廠恢復到正常生產水平，並完成了港口設施所需的維修，並於 9 月中旬恢復正常服務。我要祝賀 Jamalco 團隊在颶風及其後果中的出色管理。快速、安全、無傷地完成港口修復，確實是一項了不起的成就。

Turning to page 7. Late last month, the Department of Treasury published final regulations implementing Section 45X of the Inflation Reduction Act which provided additional clarity on the eligibility of certain of our costs for the 10% production tax credit. We are pleased that the final rules added direct and indirect materials as eligible costs for the production tax credit as we and others had requested in our comments.

翻到第7頁。上個月末，財政部發布了實施《通貨膨脹減少法案》第 45X 條的最終法規，進一步明確了我們的某些成本是否有資格獲得 10% 的生產稅抵免。我們很高興最終規則將直接和間接材料添加為生產稅收抵免的合格成本，正如我們和其他人在評論中所要求的那樣。

For aluminum production, the most significant costs that are now eligible are coke, pitch, and other operating supplies. From these newly eligible categories, we realized an additional benefit of $22 million in 2023 and $13 million year-to-date in 2024. Jerry will walk you through the details in a moment.

對於鋁生產來說，目前最重要的成本是焦炭、瀝青和其他營運用品。從這些新符合資格的類別中，我們在 2023 年實現了 2,200 萬美元的額外收益，在 2024 年迄今實現了 1,300 萬美元的額外收益。傑瑞稍後將引導您了解詳細資訊。

The final regulations let to open the question as to whether alumina will be an eligible production cost, reserving this question for further consideration with updated guidance to be published at a later time. We will continue to work with the Treasury Department regarding inclusion of alumina as an eligible cost for 45X as there is strong justification that alumina should ultimately be eligible for the tax credit. If alumina is included, that would increase our 45X credit by about $30 million annually.

最終法規提出了氧化鋁是否屬於合格生產成本的問題，保留該問題以供進一步考慮，並在稍後發布更新指南。我們將繼續與財政部合作，將氧化鋁納入 45X 的合格成本，因為有充分理由證明氧化鋁最終有資格獲得稅收抵免。如果包括氧化鋁，我們的信用額每年將增加約 3000 萬美元 45 倍。

Jerry will now walk you through the details on 45X, the quarter, and our Q4 outlook.

Jerry 現在將帶您詳細了解 45X、本季以及我們對第四季的展望。

Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to slide 8 to review third quarter results. On a consolidated basis, third quarter global shipments were approximately 169,000 tonnes, slightly higher than last quarter. Net sales for the quarter were $539 million, a decrease of $22 million sequentially. This was driven by lower third-party alumina sales due to the port repairs at Jamalco, partially offset by higher realized metal prices and regional delivery premiums.

謝謝你，傑西。讓我們翻到幻燈片 8 回顧第三季的業績。綜合來看，第三季全球出貨量約169,000噸，略高於上季。該季度淨銷售額為 5.39 億美元，比上一季減少 2,200 萬美元。這是由於賈馬爾科港口維修導致第三方氧化鋁銷售下降，但部分被實現金屬價格和區域交付溢價上漲所抵消。

Looking at Q3 operating results, adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century was $104 million. The $70 million sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA was driven by additional 45X tax credits, higher realized prices, and lower raw material costs. Adjusted net income was $60 million or $0.63 per share. The main adjusting items were add-backs of $7 million for Hurricane Beryl-related costs at Jamalco that we told you about last call, $3 million for share-based compensation, and $2 million for the unrealized impact of forward derivative contracts.

從第三季的經營業績來看，世紀公司調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.04 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 環比增長 7,000 萬美元，主要是由於額外的 45 倍稅收抵免、實現價格上漲以及原材料成本下降。調整後淨利為 6,000 萬美元，即每股 0.63 美元。主要調整項目是Jamalco 颶風Beryl 相關成本的700 萬美元回補（我們在上次電話會議中已向您介紹過）、300 萬美元的股權補償以及200 萬美元的遠期衍生品合約的未實現影響。

Liquidity was $279 million to end of third quarter. This consisted of $33 million in cash and $246 million available on our credit facilities. Our liquidity position remains within our target range, but decreased last quarter primarily due to inventory builds at Jamalco and the timing of alumina shipments while port repairs were being completed. We expect those to reverse in Q4 as a full quarter of normal shipments out of the Jamalco port will return inventories to target levels, increasing liquidity.

截至第三季末，流動資金為 2.79 億美元。其中包括 3,300 萬美元現金和 2.46 億美元可用信貸額度。我們的流動性部位仍處於目標範圍內，但上季有所下降，主要是由於 Jamalco 的庫存增加以及港口維修完成期間的氧化鋁裝運時間。我們預計這些情況將在第四季度出現逆轉，因為賈馬爾科港口整個季度的正常發貨將使庫存恢復到目標水平，從而增加流動性。

Turning to slide 9 to explain the third quarter sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA. In total, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $104 million. Realized LME of $2,451 per tonne was up $163 versus prior quarter, while realized US Midwest Premium of $421 per tonne was up $5 and European Delivery Premium of $335 per tonne was up $52. Together, higher metal prices and regional premiums contributed an incremental $31 million compared with the prior quarter. We also realized favorable raw material costs, adding $7 million of EBITDA. The favorable market prices and raw material costs were partially offset with slightly higher power prices, a headwind of $3 million.

轉向幻燈片 9，解釋第三季調整後 EBITDA 的環比改善。第三季調整後 EBITDA 總計為 1.04 億美元。LME 實現的每噸 2,451 美元的溢價較上一季度上漲了 163 美元，而美國中西部實現的溢價為每噸 421 美元，上漲了 5 美元，歐洲交割溢價為每噸 335 美元，上漲了 52 美元。與上一季相比，較高的金屬價格和地區保費合計貢獻了 3,100 萬美元的增量。我們也實現了有利的原料成本，增加了 700 萬美元的 EBITDA。有利的市場價格和原料成本被電價小幅上漲（300 萬美元的逆風）部分抵銷。

The new 45X rules from the Treasury department addressing carbon and other operating supplies result in an additional $22 million credit for the full-year 2023 and an additional $13 million credit for the 2024 year-to-date. These tax credit amounts are added into the 45X tax credit that has already been recorded each quarter since the original guidance was released in December 2023. In total, this brought our Q3 adjusted EBITDA to $104 million.

財政部針對碳和其他營運供應制定的新 45X 規則將為 2023 年全年額外提供 2,200 萬美元的信貸，並為 2024 年年初至今額外提供 1,300 萬美元的信貸。這些稅收抵免金額將添加到自 2023 年 12 月發布原始指南以來每個季度已記錄的 45 倍稅收抵免中。總的來說，這使我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 達到 1.04 億美元。

With that, let's turn to slide 10 for a look at cash flow. We began the quarter with $41 million in cash. Adjusted EBITDA contributed $104 million. Capital expenditures totaled $23 million which was largely driven by cash outlays for the completed Jamalco port repairs following Hurricane Beryl. Hurricane Beryl also impacted working capital during the quarter causing a delay in alumina shipments from our Jamalco refinery that will correct in the fourth quarter.

接下來，讓我們轉向投影片 10 看看現金流。本季初我們擁有 4,100 萬美元現金。調整後 EBITDA 貢獻 1.04 億美元。資本支出總計 2,300 萬美元，主要是由颶風 Beryl 後完成的 Jamalco 港口維修所需的現金支出推動的。颶風 Beryl 也影響了本季的營運資金，導致 Jamalco 煉油廠的氧化鋁出貨延遲，這一情況將在第四季度得到糾正。

Finally, the total 45X tax credit booked in the quarter increased the tax credit receivable on our balance sheet until the direct cash payments are received. Through September 30, we have a 45X receivable of $133 million awaiting payment from the US government. At the end of quarter three, we have $33 million in cash.

最後，本季登記的 45 倍稅收抵免總額增加了我們資產負債表上的應收稅收抵免，直到收到直接現金付款。截至 9 月 30 日，我們有 45 倍的應收帳款 1.33 億美元等待美國政府付款。截至第三季末，我們擁有 3,300 萬美元現金。

Let's turn to slide 11 for insights into our expectations for the fourth quarter. For Q4, the lagged LME of $2,430 per tonne is expected to be down about $20 versus Q3 realized prices. The Q4 lag US Midwest Premium is forecast to be $425 per tonne, up $5.

讓我們轉向投影片 11，深入了解我們對第四季的預期。第四季度，滯後的 LME 價格為每噸 2,430 美元，預計比第三季的實際價格下降約 20 美元。第四季落後的美國中西部升水預計為每噸 425 美元，上漲 5 美元。

The European Delivery Premium is expected at $340 per tonne or up about $5 per tonne versus the third quarter.

歐洲交割溢價預計為每噸 340 美元，較第三季每噸上漲約 5 美元。

Taken together, the lagged LME and delivery premium changes are expected to have a zero to $5 million decrease to Q4 EBITDA compared with Q3 levels. We expect power prices to remain constructive and to have a zero to $5 million EBITDA increase in Q4. Collectively, we expect our other key raw materials to be about flat. Volume operating expenses and other administrative costs will be similar to last quarter. All factors considered, our outlook for Q4 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in a range between $70 million to $80 million. As Jesse mentioned before, current spot aluminum prices above $2,600 per tonne will not begin to positively impact our financial results until Q1 2025.

總而言之，與第三季水準相比，滯後的 LME 和交割溢價變化預計第四季度 EBITDA 將減少 0 至 500 萬美元。我們預計電價將保持建設性，第四季 EBITDA 成長 0 至 500 萬美元。總的來說，我們預計其他主要原材料將基本持平。批量營運費用和其他管理成本將與上季類似。考慮到所有因素，我們對第四季度調整後 EBITDA 的展望預計在 7000 萬美元至 8000 萬美元之間。正如傑西之前提到的，目前鋁現貨價格高於每噸 2,600 美元，直到 2025 年第一季才會開始對我們的財務表現產生正面影響。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Jesse.

現在我將把電話轉回給傑西。

Thanks, Jerry. Before we turn the call over to questions, I want to spend a little bit more time on Section 45X and our Jamalco acquisition, which, together with the operational improvements our team has driven over the past several years, served to increase the stability in Century's businesses and earnings power. With the inclusion of carbon and other operating supplies as eligible for the production tax credit, we now expect our total full-year 2023 45X benefit to be $79 million and estimate our total full-year 2024 45X benefit to be around $73 million.

謝謝，傑瑞。在我們將電話轉入問題之前，我想花更多時間討論第 45X 條和我們對 Jamalco 的收購，這與我們團隊在過去幾年中推動的營運改進一起，有助於提高 Century 的穩定性。企業和盈利能力。將碳和其他營運供應納入生產稅收抵免資格後，我們現在預計 2023 年全年 45X 收益總額將達到 7,900 萬美元，並估計 2024 年全年 45X 收益總額約為 7,300 萬美元。

If alumina is ultimately included as eligible, we expect each of those amounts to increase by another $30 million or so, to total over $100 million in benefit on an annualized basis.

如果氧化鋁最終被納入合格範圍，我們預計每筆金額將再增加 3,000 萬美元左右，年化效益總額將超過 1 億美元。

Please note, these production tax credits for critical minerals do not phase out over time. It would be increased pro rata by any additional production that we may bring online in the US. The effect of these credits is to significantly increase the quality and competitiveness of Century's businesses. When paired with our world-class workforce, our privileged position in very undersupplied US and EU markets, as well as a globally competitive captive supply of alumina from Jamalco, you can see the quality of the earnings power of the business that we have been working towards for quite some time now. We are really proud of what the team has created here at Century and believe this is a business that can now perform very well through the cycles.

請注意，這些關鍵礦物的生產稅收抵免不會隨著時間的推移而逐步取消。我們可能在美國上線的任何額外生產都會按比例增加。這些信貸的效果是顯著提高 Century 業務的品質和競爭力。與我們世界一流的員工隊伍、我們在供應嚴重不足的美國和歐盟市場中的優越地位以及 Jamalco 具有全球競爭力的自有氧化鋁供應相結合，您可以看到我們一直從事的業務的盈利能力質量已經有一段時間了。我們對世紀團隊所創造的一切感到非常自豪，並相信這是一家現在可以在各個週期中表現出色的企業。

We look forward to your questions today and we'll turn the call over now to the operator.

我們期待您今天​​提出問題，我們現在會將電話轉給接線生。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Lucas Pipes，B. Riley Securities。

Thank you very much, operator; and good afternoon, everyone. I have a fairly long list of questions. I'll try to keep them short. But first, Jesse, could you speak a little bit to the process that you have started for Hawesville? When did you kick off that process and when would you expect to complete it? Thank you very much.

非常感謝您，接線生；大家下午好。我有一個相當長的問題清單。我會盡量簡短。但首先，傑西，您能談談您為霍斯維爾啟動的流程嗎？您什麼時候開始這個過程以及您預計什麼時候完成它？非常感謝。

Sure, Lucas. Yeah, as I mentioned on the call, we've been looking at this for a little while now. We did receive a number of inbound inquiries with interest in the site. And given the interest level that we saw, we decided it made sense to start a process. Now, of course, repurposing an industrial asset is a bit different than some of the other transactions you've seen in the market. There's a number of items that will need to be diligenced by the buyers and valued. And so we'll just have to watch and see how long that takes. But what we can say for now is there is significant interest and the process will ultimately help us determine value and make the right decision.

當然，盧卡斯。是的，正如我在電話中提到的，我們已經研究這個問題已經有一段時間了。我們確實收到了一些對該網站感興趣的入站詢問。考慮到我們看到的興趣水平，我們認為啟動一個流程是有意義的。當然，現在工業資產的重新利用與您在市場上看到的其他一些交易有點不同。有許多物品需要買家仔細檢查和估價。所以我們只需要觀察，看看這需要多長時間。但我們現在可以說的是，人們對此很感興趣，這個過程最終將幫助我們確定價值並做出正確的決定。

All right. Well, we'll stay tuned for that. I want to touch on the LME-linked supply agreements for alumina really quickly. And Jesse, could you remind us kind of what supply agreements you have in the market today when they expire? And then from there, I might have a few follow-ups. Thank you very much.

好的。好吧，我們將繼續關注。我想盡快談談與 LME 相關的氧化鋁供應協議。傑西，您能否提醒我們一下，當供應協議到期時，您在市場上有哪些供應協議？然後從那裡，我可能會有一些後續行動。非常感謝。

Sure. Yeah, we generally source all of our supply, as I said, either from Jamalco or from these long-term supply agreements. The supply agreements, we don't disclose details of. But they are with very credit-worthy counterparties. And I think, there's over two years left on those contracts before we'll need to renegotiate them.

當然。是的，正如我所說，我們通常從 Jamalco 或這些長期供應協議採購所有供應。至於供貨協議，我們不透露細節。但他們的交易對手都是信譽良好的。我認為，在我們需要重新談判這些合約之前，這些合約還剩兩年多的時間。

So this would include both Concord and Glencore or might there be a difference between the two?

那麼這將包括康科德和嘉能可，或者兩者之間可能存在差異？

We won't break down the individual contracts, but as you can see from our results, the collective nature -- when you put them together, I guess, is the way to say it, along with our own internal captive supply, we don't have any API exposure.

我們不會分解單獨的合同，但正如你從我們的結果中看到的，集體性質——我想，當你把它們放在一起時，加上我們自己的內部自保供應，我們不這樣做沒有任何API 暴露。

And that should also hold true for 2025.

2025 年也是如此。

Yes. In 2026 as well.

是的。2026 年也是如此。

All right, very helpful. Thank you very much for that. In that context, strong aluminum pricing, supply stability on the alumina side price stability, why not move forward with capacity restarts here and now?

好的，非常有幫助。非常感謝你。在此背景下，鋁價強勁，氧化鋁方面供應穩定，價格穩定，為何不立即推進產能重啟？

Well, that's a good question, Lucas. So as we've said for a while now, we want to look and make sure that when we do make the decision to bring capacity back online, the market is ready for it. For one, we do see strong LME, so that's a positive; and we've seen rising Midwest premium prices as well over this quarter. But with respect to incremental volume, we would have to go out into the market and source alumina. So there, we would be exposed to spot alumina for that new bulk volume that we're bringing on.

嗯，這是個好問題，盧卡斯。因此，正如我們已經說過一段時間的那樣，我們希望審視並確保當我們做出恢復產能的決定時，市場已做好準備。首先，我們確實看到倫敦金屬交易所表現強勁，所以這是一個積極因素；我們也看到本季中西部的溢價也在上漲。但就增量而言，我們必須進入市場並購買氧化鋁。因此，我們將接觸到現貨氧化鋁，以供應我們正在引進的新散裝貨量。

So just to be clear, no spot exposure for our existing operations at current levels, but that if we were to bring on additional, we'd have to go out and find that alumina in the marketplace. And obviously, at spot prices, that's a bit of a hurdle.

因此，需要明確的是，我們現有的業務在目前的水平上沒有現貨敞口，但如果我們要增加額外的業務，我們必須出去在市場上找到氧化鋁。顯然，以現貨價格計算，這是一個障礙。

I appreciate that color. I'll turn it over for now. Thank you very much.

我很欣賞那種顏色。我暫時把它翻過來。非常感謝。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just going back to the alumina supply agreements. I think when I look at your filings, you have an agreement that is supposedly valid through the end of this year for 600,000 tonnes of alumina. Does that just roll over? Or what's the situation with that? Can you talk a little bit about that?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是回到氧化鋁供應協議。我認為，當我查看你們的文件時，你們達成了一份據稱有效期到今年年底的 60 萬噸氧化鋁協議。就這樣就翻車了嗎？或者說這是什麼情況？你能談談這個嗎？

Yeah, that contract has been extended now, Katja. So that extends out for a couple of years from here.

是的，合約現在已經延長了，Katja。所以這從這裡延伸了幾年。

And is that the same terms as it was in the past or any changes there?

這與過去的條款相同還是有任何變化？

Yeah, similar terms as what's been there in the past.

是的，與過去類似的術語。

And maybe moving to the value-added premiums. I think now is the time when you're negotiating for next year. Any update on that side how it's looking for next year?

也許會轉向增值保費。我認為現在是你們談判明年的時候了。明年的情況有什麼更新嗎？

No, as we've seen for the past couple of years the, what we call the mating season, extends a bit longer into the fall than it used to maybe five years ago. So we're still out there in the market right now negotiating those contracts and expect to have an update on the Q4 call.

不，正如我們在過去幾年中所看到的，我們所說的交配季節，比五年前延長到秋天的時間要長一些。因此，我們目前仍在市場上談判這些合同，並期望獲得第四季度電話會議的最新消息。

And one last one, if I may. You mentioned that repurposing an industrial asset comes with -- it's a little different than some of the other assets. Can you talk a bit more about that? For example, what are some of the potential challenges in repurposing these types of assets?

如果可以的話，還有最後一件事。您提到工業資產的重新利用與其他一些資​​產略有不同。能多談談嗎？例如，重新利用這些類型的資產有哪些潛在挑戰？

Well, I think it's just as simple as I think some of the other transactions in the market you have seen has been one data center used for one type of data center application to maybe an AI hyperscale or something like that. Or you can just imagine you're turning over a data center building with server racks, etcetera.

嗯，我認為這就像我認為您所看到的市場上的其他一些交易一樣簡單，即一個數據中心用於一種類型的數據中心應用程序，可能是人工智能超大規模或類似的東西。或者您可以想像您正在翻轉帶有伺服器機架等的資料中心建築。

Whereas if you have an industrial asset, obviously, you use it for its industrial purpose, so we made aluminum. And so while there are assets that have significant value like the electrical equipment and power infrastructure, there are other areas of the site that would need to be modified in order to work for such purpose. And so I think as we move forward with the process, that's one area that the buyers are due diligencing and will need to be evaluated in terms of sort of timing to a transaction.

而如果你擁有工業資產，顯然，你將其用於工業目的，所以我們生產鋁。因此，雖然電氣設備和電力基礎設施等資產具有重大價值，但現場的其他區域需要進行修改才能實現此目的。因此，我認為，隨著我們推進這一流程，這是買家需要盡職調查的一個領域，並且需要根據交易的時機進行評估。

So if I'm understanding correctly, this would be, in a way, a sale of the whole asset potentially?

因此，如果我理解正確的話，這在某種程度上可能是整個資產的出售？

We haven't settled on any structure nor have we settled on any transaction yet, Katja. But that would certainly be one potential outcome of the process.

我們還沒有敲定任何結構，也還沒有敲定任何交易，Katja。但這肯定是這一過程的潛在結果。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.

約翰·圖馬佐斯，非常獨立的研究。

Thank you very much for taking my question. When does the LME-linked contract expire? Who, if you can say, is the supplier? And could you tell us if your alumina costs in Jamaica resemble world averages like what Alcoa or other companies publish?

非常感謝您回答我的問題。LME掛鉤合約何時到期？如果可以的話，誰是供應商？您能否告訴我們，您在牙買加的氧化鋁成本是否與美國鋁業或其他公司發布的世界平均值相似？

Sure, John. Let me try to take those in order. If I miss one, just redirect me. So the LME-linked contracts are long term. They're in place. There's a variety of them. But all of them are through at least 2026. With respect to the Jamalco cost structure, as we've said in the past, we are very excited about this asset. We think its cost structure will ultimately be globally competitive in what we said as we implement some of our CapEx programs, we do think it can be a second quartile asset which would put us right in the range of some of our competitors that you mentioned. And we're already underway. You know, we've been at it a year now and getting that cost structure down and certainly looking good in today's market price environment.

當然，約翰。讓我試著按順序排列這些內容。如果我錯過了，請重定向我。因此，與 LME 掛鉤的合約是長期的。他們就位。有各種各樣的。但這一切至少要持續到 2026 年。關於 Jamalco 的成本結構，正如我們過去所說，我們對這項資產感到非常興奮。我們認為，當我們實施一些資本支出計劃時，它的成本結構最終將具有全球競爭力，我們確實認為它可以成為第二個四分位資產，這將使我們處於您提到的一些競爭對手的範圍之內。我們已經開始了。您知道，我們已經為此努力了一年，並降低了成本結構，並且在當今的市場價格環境中看起來確實不錯。

Congratulations. What you've done with alumina is absolutely superb.

恭喜。你用氧化鋁所做的事情絕對是一流的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Lucas Pipes，B. Riley Securities。

Thank you very much for taking my follow-up question. Just one more on the alumina side. As a percentage of LME, what was it roughly this year? Would it be stable next year? Or could there be any adjustment given the recent surge in alumina prices? I want to echo John's comments. Congratulations on the acquisition of Jamalco and the structure of all the contracts you've done. But I wanted to follow up on this. Thank you.

非常感謝您接受我的後續問題。氧化鋁一側還有一個。今年佔LME的比例大約是多少？明年會穩定嗎？或者考慮到近期氧化鋁價格的飆升，是否會進行調整？我想回應約翰的評論。恭喜您收購 Jamalco 以及您所完成的所有合約的架構。但我想跟進此事。謝謝。

Sure, Lucas. Yeah, I think your question relates to the commercial contracts, whether those could change. And no, those are fixed percentages that were entered into before the current runup. And so they are quite attractive compared to current levels.

當然，盧卡斯。是的，我認為你的問題與商業合約有關，這些合約是否可以改變。不，這些是在當前啟動之前輸入的固定百分比。因此，與目前的水平相比，它們相當有吸引力。

Very helpful. Thank you. Sorry.

非常有幫助。謝謝。對不起。

Well, I was just going to say no readjustment in those contracts. They're fixed.

好吧，我只是想說不要對這些合約進行調整。它們是固定的。

Thank you for that. Maybe trying to put it all together. Obviously, you provided an outlook for Q4 that is still reflecting a somewhat weaker price environment. Looking out to Q1 or 2025 EBITDA in the current price environment, could you help kind of frame up the sensitivity and what the earnings power might look like? I would appreciate your color. Thank you.

謝謝你。也許試圖將它們放在一起。顯然，您提供的第四季度展望仍然反映出價格環境疲軟。展望當前價格環境下的第一季或 2025 年 EBITDA，您能否協助確定敏感度以及獲利能力可能是什麼樣的？我會欣賞你的顏色。謝謝。

Sure, Lucas. You all can just go to our Sensitivities in the Appendix and go ahead and mark whichever of the revenue side or cost side items you want. But just to walk you through it, Lucas, as you see on page 11, the outlook was based on an LME around 2,400. So with spots above 2,600, that's about $200 per tonne of incremental EBITDA, which is about $90 million of incremental EBITDA on a run rate annualized basis.

當然，盧卡斯。你們都可以轉到附錄中的敏感度，然後標記您想要的收入方面或成本方面的項目。但盧卡斯，正如您在第 11 頁上看到的，為了引導您了解這一點，前景是基於倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 2,400 點左右。因此，如果現貨數量高於 2,600，則每噸 EBITDA 增量約為 200 美元，以年化運行率計算，EBITDA 增量約為 9,000 萬美元。

And then Midwest Premium as well has risen from these levels. In the outlook, it's about $425 per tonne. It's up a couple of pennies from there. So that's maybe another $20 million or so. So at spots, you've got an additional $100 million or so and annualized EBITDA from what's in the guide. So you can take that $25 million a quarter, it puts you above $100 million quarterly run rate EBITDA.

然後中西部保費也從這些水準上升。預計價格約為每噸 425 美元。比那裡上漲了幾美分。所以這可能還需要 2000 萬美元左右。因此，在某些地方，您可以從指南中獲得約 1 億美元的額外收入和年化 EBITDA。因此，您可以每季拿走 2500 萬美元，這將使您的季度 EBITDA 超過 1 億美元。

I appreciate all the additional color, Jesse. To you and the team, continued best of luck.

我很欣賞所有額外的顏色，傑西。祝您和團隊繼續好運。

Thanks a lot, Lucas.

非常感謝，盧卡斯。

Thank you for your questions. There are no longer questions in the queue, so I'll pass the conference back to the management team for any further or closing remarks.

謝謝您的提問。隊列中不再有問題，因此我會將會議轉回給管理團隊，以便進一步的演講或結束語。

Thank you, operator. And thanks to everyone for joining the call. We really appreciate all the questions as always and look forward to talking to you in the New Year.

謝謝你，接線生。感謝大家加入通話。我們一如既往地感謝所有的問題，並期待在新的一年與您交談。

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you, all, for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。