Century Aluminum Co (CENX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's Century Aluminum Company fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Jalen, and I'll be your moderator for today. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the conference over to our host, Ryan Crawford. Ryan, you may proceed.

午安.感謝您參加今天的世紀鋁業公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫 Jalen，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給我們的主持人 Ryan Crawford。瑞安，你可以繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; Jerry Bialek, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer.

謝謝您，接線生。大家下午好，歡迎參加電話會議。今天與我一起出席活動的有世紀公司總裁兼首席執行官傑西·加里 (Jesse Gary)；傑瑞·比亞萊克 (Jerry Bialek)，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；以及財務高級副總裁兼財務主管 Peter Trpkovski。

After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD. Turning to slide 1, please take a moment to review the cautionary statements shown here with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures contained in today's discussion.

在準備好評論後，我們將回答您的問題。提醒一下，今天的簡報可以在我們的網站 www.centuryaluminum.com 上找到。我們使用我們的網站作為揭露公司重大資訊和遵守公平揭露規則的一種手段。前往投影片 1，請花一點時間查看這裡顯示的有關今天討論中包含的前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標的警告性聲明。

And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

說完這些，我就把電話交給傑西。

Thanks, Ryan, and thanks to everyone for joining. I'll start today by quickly reviewing our full-year 2024 performance before discussing our Q4 performance and the strong market conditions we are experiencing so far in 2025. Jerry will then take you through the details of the results and our first-quarter outlook, and then I'll finish with a discussion of the recent US Section 232 tariff announcements before turning the call over for questions.

謝謝，Ryan，也謝謝大家的加入。今天，我將首先快速回顧我們 2024 年全年的業績，然後討論我們的第四季度業績以及我們在 2025 年迄今為止經歷的強勁市場狀況。然後，傑瑞將向大家介紹業績詳情和我們第一季的展望，之後我將討論最近的美國第 232 條關稅公告，然後將電話轉交給大家提問。

Century produced strong results in 2024, generating adjusted EBITDA of $245 million for the year and $82 million for the fourth quarter. Overall, strong realized aluminum prices, both at the LME and regional premium level and low energy prices drove increased profitability in the fourth quarter. Aluminum prices averaged $2,575 for the quarter and rose further in Q1 to date, with spot LME trading above $2,700 and Midwest premium trading near $0.39 today.

Century 在 2024 年取得了強勁的業績，全年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.45 億美元，第四季度調整後 EBITDA 為 8,200 萬美元。總體而言，倫敦金屬交易所和區域溢價水平的強勁實際鋁價以及低廉的能源價格推動了第四季度盈利能力的增長。本季鋁價平均為 2,575 美元，第一季迄今進一步上漲，倫敦金屬交易所現貨鋁價超過 2,700 美元，中西部溢價鋁價今日交易價格接近 0.39 美元。

Turning to slide 4, Indy Hub power prices continued to be attractive in Q4 as a mild start to winter kept natural gas and power prices low. Cold snaps in January and February have led to higher US and European gas and energy prices so far in 2025, and we have experienced some of this normal seasonality in our power prices at Sebree in the first quarter.

轉到幻燈片 4，由於冬季開始氣候溫和，天然氣和電力價格保持在低位，Indy Hub 電價在第四季度繼續具有吸引力。2025 年迄今，1 月和 2 月的寒流導緻美國和歐洲的天然氣和能源價格上漲，第一季塞布里 (Sebree) 的電價也出現了一些正常的季節性變化。

Turning to page5, as you can see in the top-left graph, strong global demand and continued constraints on new global supply are expected to move the global market into deficit by over 600,000 tons in 2025. Global aluminum supply remains challenged with China approaching its 45-million-ton production cap and limited announced new projects outside of China. We believe demand growth will continue to outpace supply in 2025 and for years to come.

翻到第 5 頁，正如您在左上角的圖表中所看到的，強勁的全球需求和對全球新供應的持續限制預計將導致全球市場在 2025 年出現 60 萬噸以上的短缺。由於中國接近4500萬噸的生產上限且中國境外宣布的新項目有限，全球鋁供應仍面臨挑戰。我們相信，2025 年及未來幾年需求成長將持續超過供應。

With inventories again at multiyear lows of 49 days, Western demand growth in 2025 should be supportive of higher aluminum prices as we move forward in the year and inventories continue to deplete. Alumina supplies also remained tight in Q4, driving API alumina prices to all-time highs in late November and early December. Alumina prices have retreated somewhat in 2025 with spot API trading today around $505.

由於庫存再次跌至 49 天的多年低點，隨著時間推移和庫存繼續減少，2025 年西方需求成長應能支撐鋁價上漲。第四季氧化鋁供應仍然緊張，推動 API 氧化鋁價格在 11 月底和 12 月初創下歷史新高。2025 年氧化鋁價格有所回落，目前現貨 API 交易價格約為 505 美元。

Our Jamalco acquisition and LME-linked commercial contracts continue to serve us well during this period of alumina price volatility. During Q4, one of our major alumina suppliers declared a force majeure, which reduced deliveries under one of our supply contracts and required us to procure some spot API alumina in Q4. Fortunately, we were able to reach a financial settlement with the supplier that fully offset the additional costs of these spot cargoes.

在氧化鋁價格波動期間，我們的 Jamalco 收購和與 LME 相關的商業合約繼續發揮了良好的作用。第四季度，我們的一家主要氧化鋁供應商宣布發生不可抗力，這減少了我們一份供應合約下的交貨量，並要求我們在第四季度採購一些現貨 API 氧化鋁。幸運的是，我們能夠與供應商達成財務結算，完全抵銷這些現貨貨物的額外成本。

Please just note that the $12 million benefit from the financial settlement was booked in Q4, while the offsetting one-time costs associated with the replacement material will not roll through our results until Q1 due to FIFO accounting. Just to wrap this up, the FM was limited to Q4, and we do not expect any further impact from this beyond Q1. You can continue to use our 50% Jamalco and fixed and 50% LME-linked alumina sensitivity numbers for Q2 and beyond.

請注意，財務結算產生的 1,200 萬美元收益已於第四季度入賬，而由於先進先出會計原則，與替換材料相關的抵消一次性成本要到第一季才計入我們的業績。總而言之，FM 僅限於第四季度，我們預計它不會對第一季之後產生任何進一步影響。您可以繼續使用我們 50% Jamalco 和固定以及 50% LME 掛鉤氧化鋁敏感度數字來表示第二季及以後的數據。

On page 6, you can see our other raw material price inputs continue to be constructive, but we did see some uptick in coke and pitch prices as we enter 2025. Caustic prices and HFO continue to be at levels that are very constructive for Jamalco.

在第 6 頁，您可以看到我們的其他原物料價格輸入繼續保持建設性，但進入 2025 年，我們確實看到焦炭和瀝青價格上漲。苛性鹼和重質燃油價格繼續處於對 Jamalco 非常有利的水平。

Turning to operations, across the company, our assets continue to deliver strong operating results into year-end. Starting with Sebree, 2024 represented one of the smelter's finest operating years ever, delivering strong results across their operating KPIs. We are very proud of the fine asset that the team has created there.

談到運營，在整個公司，我們的資產在年底繼續提供強勁的營運表現。從 Sebree 開始，2024 年是該冶煉廠有史以來運作最好的年份之一，各項營運 KPI 都取得了強勁成績。我們為團隊在那裡創造的優秀資產感到非常自豪。

Mt. Holly did suffer some minor operational instability in Q4 as an excursion on the carbon side of the business increased operating costs and drove slightly lower production across the plant. The management team there has this issue well in hand, and we expect the plant to return to normal performance over the course of Q1.

由於碳業務的偏離增加了營運成本並導致整個工廠的產量略有下降，Mt. Holly 在第四季度確實遭遇了一些輕微的營運不穩定。那裡的管理團隊已經很好地控制了這個問題，我們預計工廠將在第一季恢復正常運作。

At Grundartangi and Jamalco, the respective teams delivered excellent operating quarters. And Jamalco notably is off to a very strong start to 2025 with January production at the highest monthly levels since we purchased the plant. The Jamalco team continues to focus on improvement, both through operational optimization and execution of our multiyear CapEx program that will aim to increase production at Jamalco towards 1.4 million tons of capacity.

在 Grundartangi 和 Jamalco，各自的團隊都表現出色。值得注意的是，Jamalco 在 2025 年取得了非常強勁的開局，1 月的產量達到了我們購買工廠以來的最高月產量。Jamalco 團隊繼續致力於改進，透過優化營運和執行我們的多年資本支出計劃，旨在將 Jamalco 的產量提高到 140 萬噸。

In Q4, the Jamalco team took action to right size its workforce by implementing a 5% reduction in the plant's headcount. This step was necessary to lower the plant's labor expense and increase productivity and continues our progress toward Jamalco's goal of producing in the second quartile of the cost curve.

第四季度，Jamalco 團隊採取行動，將工廠員工人數減少 5%，以合理調整員工規模。此舉對於降低工廠的勞動成本和提高生產力是必要的，並繼續使我們朝著 Jamalco 在成本曲線的第二四分位數生產的目標邁進。

Our evaluation process at Hawesville made good progress with strong interest and lots of due diligence ongoing. We will keep you updated on progress here as we move through the year.

在各方濃厚的興趣和持續進行的盡職調查下，我們在霍斯維爾的評估過程中取得了良好進展。我們將隨時向您通報今年以來的進展。

Wrapping up with some very good news out of Iceland, recent rainfall and stronger-than-expected snowmelt have improved reservoir levels in the hydropower schemes on the island. Given these improved reservoir levels, the National Power Company ended the power curtailments to Grundartangi in mid-February. The curtailments had originally been expected to last through May.

冰島傳來了一些非常好的消息，最近的降雨和比預期更強的融雪已經提高了島上水力發電計畫的水庫水位。鑑於水庫水位提高，國家電力公司於 2 月中旬結束了對 Grundartangi 水庫的限電。此次減產原本預計將持續到五月。

The plant is now in the process of restoring operations to full production, which will have a partial benefit in Q1 and should result in full production levels for Grundartangi in Q2. The positive financial impact of the additional production is included in our outlook on page10 in our full-year volume guidance that is included later in this presentation.

該工廠目前正在恢復全面生產，這將在第一季產生部分效益，並將使 Grundartangi 在第二季度達到滿載生產水準。額外產量帶來的正面財務影響已包含在本報告後面的第 10 頁的全年產量預期展望中。

Jerry will now walk you through the details on the quarter and our Q1 outlook.

傑瑞現在將向您介紹本季的詳細資訊和我們第一季的展望。

Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to slide 7 to review fourth-quarter results. On a consolidated basis, fourth-quarter global shipments were approximately 167,000 tons, slightly lower than last quarter due primarily to the year-end cutoff timing of shipments.

謝謝你，傑西。讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片來回顧一下第四季的業績。綜合來看，第四季全球出貨量約167,000噸，較上一季略有下降，主要原因是年底出貨截止時間。

Net sales for the quarter were $631 million, an increase of $92 million sequentially. This was driven by higher third-party alumina sales volume, along with higher aluminum prices and regional premiums. Adjusted net income was $46 million or $0.49 per share. The main adjusting items were add-backs of $5 million for share-based compensation and $2 million for lower of cost or net realizable value on inventory, partially offset by a $6 million deduction for the unrealized impact of forward derivative contracts.

本季淨銷售額為 6.31 億美元，比上一季增加 9,200 萬美元。這是由於第三方氧化鋁銷量增加以及鋁價和區域溢價上漲所致。調整後淨收入為 4,600 萬美元，即每股 0.49 美元。主要調整項目包括因股權激勵而加回的 500 萬美元以及因存貨成本與可實現淨值孰低而加回的 200 萬美元，但因遠期衍生品合約未實現影響而扣除的 600 萬美元部分抵消了這一影響。

Looking at Q4 operating results, adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century was $82 million. Liquidity was $245 million to end the fourth quarter. This consisted of $33 million in cash and $212 million available on our credit facilities. Our liquidity position remains near target range but decreased last quarter primarily due to working capital dynamics within alumina sourcing.

從第四季經營績效來看，世紀集團調整後的息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 8,200 萬美元。截至第四季末，流動資金為 2.45 億美元。其中包括 3,300 萬美元現金和 2.12 億美元的信貸額度。我們的流動性狀況仍然接近目標範圍，但上個季度有所下降，主要原因是氧化鋁採購內部的營運資金動態。

Turning to slide 8 to explain the fourth quarter sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA on a normalized basis. As a reminder, the Treasury Department published final 45X rules addressing carbon and other operating supplies in Q3. As a result, we recorded an incremental tax credit to true up the full year 2023 and year-to-date 2024 periods in the third quarter.

轉到投影片 8，解釋第四季度調整後 EBITDA 在標準化基礎上的連續改善。提醒一下，財政部在第三季發布了針對碳和其他營運供應的最終 45X 規則。因此，我們在第三季記錄了增量稅收抵免，以彌補 2023 年全年和 2024 年年初至今的稅收抵免。

Normalized adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter improved $9 million to $82 million. Realized LME of $2,462 per ton was up $11 versus prior quarter, while realized US Midwest premium of $436 per ton was up $15; and European delivery premium of $341 per ton was up $6. Together, higher metal prices and regional premiums contributed an incremental $4 million compared with the prior quarter.

第四季標準化調整後 EBITDA 增加 900 萬美元，達到 8,200 萬美元。LME 實際溢價為每噸 2,462 美元，較上一季上漲 11 美元，而美國中西部實際溢價為每噸 436 美元，上漲 15 美元；歐洲交貨溢價為每噸 341 美元，上漲 6 美元。金屬價格上漲和區域溢價共同貢獻了與上一季相比 400 萬美元的增量。

We also realized favorable energy costs adding $2 million of EBITDA. In addition, as Jesse discussed, we recorded a $12 million benefit after reaching a settlement with an external alumina supplier regarding a force majeure supply disruption in Q4. These benefits were partially offset by unfavorable other raw material costs of $3 million and higher operating spend at Mt. Holly, a headwind of $5 million.

我們也實現了有利的能源成本，增加了 200 萬美元的 EBITDA。此外，正如傑西所討論的，在與外部氧化鋁供應商就第四季度不可抗力供應中斷達成和解後，我們獲得了 1,200 萬美元的收益。這些收益被 300 萬美元的其他原材料成本以及 Mt. Holly 更高的營運支出（500 萬美元的不利因素）部分抵消。

With that, let's turn to slide 9 for a look at cash flow. We began the quarter with $33 million in cash. Adjusted EBITDA contributed $82 million. Increased borrowings of $42 million were used to support the working capital build.

那麼，讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片來看看現金流。本季開始時，我們的現金為 3,300 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻了 8,200 萬美元。增加的4200萬美元借款用於支持營運資金建設。

Capital expenditures totaled $13 million. Interest and taxes were $14 million and $9 million, respectively. The force majeure settlement was recorded in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter, but as Jesse already noted, the offsetting cost will run through inventory in Q1.

資本支出總計1,300萬美元。利息和稅金分別為1400萬美元和900萬美元。不可抗力事件的解決已記錄在第四季度的調整後 EBITDA 中，但正如 Jesse 所指出的，抵銷成本將在第一季透過庫存來抵銷。

Finally, the regular 45X tax credit booked in the quarter increased the tax credit receivable on our balance sheet until direct cash payments from the federal government are received. Through December 31, we have a 45X receivable of $152 million related to full year 2023 and 2024 operations. At the end of quarter four, we had $33 million in cash.

最後，本季記錄的常規 45X 稅收抵免增加了我們資產負債表上的應收稅收抵免，直到收到聯邦政府的直接現金支付。截至 12 月 31 日，我們有與 2023 年和 2024 年全年營運相關的 45 倍應收帳款 1.52 億美元。第四季末，我們擁有 3,300 萬美元現金。

Let's turn to slide 10 for insights into our expectations for the first quarter of 2025. For Q1, the lagged LME of $2,575 per ton is expected to be up about $113 versus Q4 realized prices. The Q1 lagged US Midwest premium is forecast to be $600 per ton, up $165. Remember, the realized Midwest premium is on an approximately one-month lag, so the recent significant premium increase will be reflected primarily in Q2 results.

讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片來了解我們對 2025 年第一季的預期。就第一季而言，預計 LME 滯後價格為每噸 2,575 美元，較第四季實現價格上漲約 113 美元。預計第一季美國中西部地區溢價將達到每噸 600 美元，上漲 165 美元。請記住，中西部地區實現的溢價落後約一個月，因此近期的溢價大幅上漲將主要反映在第二季的業績中。

The European delivery premium is expected at $345 per ton or up about $5 per ton versus the fourth quarter. Taken together, the lagged LME and delivery premium changes are expected to have a $35 million to $40 million increase to Q1 EBITDA compared with Q4 levels. Normal seasonality will impact power prices and should be an approximate $15 million EBITDA headwind in Q1 after a mild start to winter in Q4. We expect carbon and other material prices to increase by $5 million.

預計歐洲交貨溢價為每噸 345 美元，較第四季上漲約 5 美元/噸。綜合來看，滯後的 LME 和交割溢價變化預計將使第一季的 EBITDA 較第四季增加 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元。正常的季節性將影響電價，在第四季度冬季開始較為溫和之後，第一季的 EBITDA 將受到約 1500 萬美元的不利影響。我們預計碳和其他材料的價格將上漲 500 萬美元。

The force majeure notice from one of our alumina suppliers caused us to purchase some alumina cargoes at spot prices during Q4. The additional cost of these cargoes was fully offset by a $12 million financial settlement that we reached with our supplier in Q4. Note, the benefit of the financial settlement was realized in Q4, but due to FIFO accounting, the higher cost of the cargoes will flow through our results in Q1.

我們的一家氧化鋁供應商發出的不可抗力通知導致我們在第四季以現貨價格購買了一些氧化鋁貨物。我們在第四季與供應商達成的 1,200 萬美元財務結算完全抵銷了這些貨物的額外成本。請注意，財務結算的收益是在第四季度實現的，但由於先進先出會計原則，貨物的較高成本將影響我們第一季的業績。

So while we are showing a one-time $10 million to $15 million aluminum headwind in Q1, the impact of this was really offset by the financial settlement we recorded in Q4. To be clear, we do not expect this will repeat in Q2 or beyond.

因此，雖然我們在第一季出現了一次性的 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的鋁逆風，但其影響實際上被我們在第四季度記錄的財務結算所抵消。需要明確的是，我們預計這種情況不會在第二季或以後重複。

We will incur approximately $5 million of higher OpEx from pot reline costs to return the full pot complement at Grundartangi and trailing restructuring costs associated with the Jamalco workforce changes. Volume and mix will add an incremental $10 million benefit. All factors considered, our outlook for Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in a range between $75 million to $85 million. As previously discussed, this outlook does not include the full-quarter impact of the significant increase in Midwest regional premiums since the announcement of the revised Section 232 tariffs.

我們將花費約 500 萬美元的更高營運支出，用於償還 Grundartangi 的全部庫存補充成本以及與 Jamalco 勞動力變動相關的後續重組成本。數量和組合將增加 1000 萬美元的增量收益。綜合考慮所有因素，我們預計第一季調整後 EBITDA 在 7500 萬美元至 8500 萬美元之間。如前所述，該展望並未包括自第 232 條關稅修訂公佈以來中西部地區保費大幅上漲對整個季度的影響。

Using the sensitivities provided in our appendix, you can see that this will have a significant effect on the profitability of our US business with each penny of increase in Midwest premium equating to an additional $9 million of EBITDA on an annualized basis. When you apply that to the nearly $0.20 increase we have already experienced since Q4, you can see the material impact of this action on our American operations.

使用我們附錄中提供的敏感度，您可以看到，這將對我們美國業務的盈利能力產生重大影響，中西部保費每增加一分錢，就相當於年化 EBITDA 增加 900 萬美元。當您將其應用到我們自第四季以來已經經歷的近 0.20 美元的成長時，您就會看到這項舉措對我們的美國業務產生的重大影響。

Please just remember that due to our contractual pricing agreements, Midwest premium will run through our financial results on a one-month lag, which means the vast majority of the benefit from the increased Section 232 tariffs will not hit our financial results until Q2.

請記住，由於我們的合約定價協議，中西部溢價將落後一個月影響我們的財務業績，這意味著第 232 條關稅增加帶來的絕大部分利益要到第二季度才會影響我們的財務業績。

Now referring to slide 11 for the full year 2025 financial assumptions, we expect shipments to improve to 700,000 tons in 2025 as all plants operate at targeted utilization levels. We expect to spend approximately $45 million to $50 million in sustaining CapEx. This is in line with historical sustaining CapEx for the smelter assets and now includes Jamalco. We also plan to invest $25 million to $30 million in various projects across the asset base that meet or exceed our return threshold.

現在參考第 11 張投影片中的 2025 年全年財務假設，我們預計，由於所有工廠都按照目標利用率水準運營，2025 年的出貨量將提高到 70 萬噸。我們預計將花費約 4,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元用於維持資本支出。這與冶煉廠資產的歷史維持資本支出一致，現在包括 Jamalco。我們還計劃在資產基礎上向達到或超過我們的回報門檻的各種項目投資 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元。

The investment CapEx will focus on improving operating efficiencies at Jamalco and our current US and European facilities. The impact of the hedge book will vary with market conditions throughout the year, but to assist with anticipating these impacts on a go-forward basis, we have updated our previously reviewed financial hedge landscape, which can be found on page16 in the appendix.

投資資本支出將集中在提高 Jamalco 以及我們目前的美國和歐洲工廠的營運效率。對沖帳簿的影響將隨著全年的市場狀況而變化，但為了幫助預測未來的這些影響，我們更新了先前審查過的金融對沖狀況，可在附錄第 16 頁找到。

With that, I will hand the call back to Jesse.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給傑西。

Thanks, Jerry. Turning to slide 12, I'd like to end the prepared portion of our call by thanking President Trump for so quickly taking action to strengthen the Section 232 tariffs on aluminum. When President Trump originally created the Section 232 program in 2018, it allowed the US aluminum industry to steady itself and begin to invest again in US production.

謝謝，傑瑞。翻到第 12 張投影片，在結束我們電話會議的準備部分時，我想感謝川普總統如此迅速地採取行動加強對鋁的第 232 條關稅。當川普總統最初在 2018 年制定第 232 條計畫時，它使美國鋁業得以穩定下來並開始再次投資美國生產。

We were proud to do our part as we invested in US production and became the largest producer of primary aluminum in the United States. Unfortunately, after President Trump left office, the effectiveness of the program was degraded through a number of country exemptions that allowed foreign producers to bypass the program and even increase their imports to all-time high levels, including imports from exempted countries increasing by over 25% since 2018.

我們很自豪能夠為美國的生產做出貢獻，並成為美國最大的原鋁生產商。不幸的是，在川普總統離任後，該計劃的有效性因一些國家的豁免而降低，這些豁免允許外國生產商繞過該計劃，甚至將進口量增加到歷史最高水平，其中從豁免國家的進口量自 2018 年以來增長了 25% 以上。

Effective March 12, President Trump's actions will restore the original effectiveness of the Section 232 program by revoking all country and product exemptions and raising the tariff rate from 10% to 25%. The effects of President Trump's action are beginning to be reflected in the Midwest premium, which has already risen from the $0.20 we realized in Q4 to $0.39 spot today. We believe that the Midwest premium has room to increase further following the effective date of the program in March.

自3月12日起，川普總統的行動將恢復第232條款計畫的原有效力，即撤銷所有國家和產品豁免，並將關稅稅率從10%提高到25%。川普總統行動的影響開始反映在中西部溢價上，該溢價已從第四季度的 0.20 美元上漲至今天的 0.39 美元。我們相信，自該計劃於三月生效以來，中西部地區的保費還有進一步上漲的空間。

As the largest producer of primary aluminum in the United States, Century is doing its part to build and secure the aluminum production that is so essential to US national security needs. When complete, our new smelter project will represent the first new smelter built in the US in 50 years and will double the size of the existing US industry. The new Century smelter will build on our leading market position to fulfill the ever-growing strategic need for a secure American supplier of cutting-edge primary aluminum alloys and value-added products.

作為美國最大的原鋁生產商，世紀鋁業公司正在盡自己的努力建造和保障對美國國家安全至關重要的鋁生產。我們的新冶煉廠專案完工後將成為美國50年來建造的第一座新冶煉廠，並將使美國現有產業規模擴大一倍。新的 Century 冶煉廠將鞏固我們領先的市場地位，以滿足美國對於尖端原鋁合金和加值產品的安全供應商日益增長的戰略需求。

The new Century smelter will also provide our US customer base with a secure domestic source of military-grade primary aluminum as well as a full suite of value-added products produced with best-in-class technology. The new smelter will create over 1,000 full-time direct jobs and over 5,500 construction jobs here in the United States.

新建的 Century 冶煉廠也將為我們的美國客戶提供安全的國內軍用級原鋁來源以及採用一流技術生產的全套增值產品。新冶煉廠將在美國創造 1,000 多個全職直接就業機會和 5,500 多個建築職缺。

We continue to make good progress on the project, having completed the second phase of engineering work and nearing completion of site selection and energy supply negotiations. We are grateful to President Trump and the administration for recognizing the vital importance of a strong domestic primary aluminum industry to US national security. These actions will help to underpin further investment in our industry, strengthen domestic supply chains, and ensure the US industry will be able to meet US needs for this critical mineral.

專案持續取得良好進展，第二階段工程已完成，選址和能源供應談判已接近完成。我們感謝川普總統和政府意識到強大的國內原鋁產業對美國國家安全至關重要。這些措施將有助於鞏固我們行業的進一步投資，加強國內供應鏈，並確保美國產業能夠滿足美國對這種關鍵礦物的需求。

With that, we are ready for your questions, and we'll turn the call over now to the operator.

至此，我們已經準備好回答您的問題，現在我們將把電話轉給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Nick Giles, B. Riley.

（操作員指示）Nick Giles，B. Riley。

Guys, congrats on all the progress here as of late. My first question is, you noted that the more recent rise in Midwest premiums won't be reflected until 2Q. And so I was wondering if you could help bridge us to your earnings power in the current environment. I believe Midwest premium in your 1Q guide versus today could imply an annual impact of around $100 million. So I wanted to confirm that and see how we might think about other moving parts.

夥計們，恭喜你們最近的所有進展。我的第一個問題是，您指出中西部地區近期保費上漲要到第二季才會反映出來。因此，我想知道您是否可以幫助我們在當前環境下提高您的盈利能力。我認為，您第一季指南中相對於今天的中西部溢價可能意味著每年約 1 億美元的影響。所以我想確認這一點並看看我們如何考慮其他活動部件。

Yes. First, Nick, congrats on the new role. Glad to have you covering us and look forward to working with you. Second, good question. So yes, where we've seen Midwest go, maybe just to start with, so far, we've seen Midwest go from the $0.20 we realized in Q4 to the $0.39 we're seeing in spot today.

是的。首先，尼克，祝賀你獲得新的職位。很高興您能報道我們，並期待與您合作。第二，好問題。是的，我們已經看到中西部地區的走向，也許只是開始，到目前為止，我們已經看到中西部地區從第四季度實現的 0.20 美元上漲到今天我們看到的 0.39 美元。

And in our Q1 outlook, we've assumed a realized Midwest premium of $0.27. So if you take it to spot, you're right in the ballpark of where that could be. And ultimately, we think that Midwest premium will go higher. We don't think it's fully reflecting the value of the tariff today. And we could see another $0.05 to $0.10 upside to what you see today.

在我們的第一季展望中，我們假設中西部地區的實際溢價為 0.27 美元。因此，如果您將其帶到現場，那麼您就正好處於可能的位置。最終，我們認為中西部地區的保費將會更高。我們認為它並沒有完全反映出當今關稅的價值。我們可能會看到今天的價格還有 0.05 美元到 0.10 美元的上漲空間。

So if you take that altogether, you could see about $0.20 upside from where we are today, call it, $0.20 to $0.25 from what we've assumed in the Q1 guide. Excuse me, sorry, $0.20 to $0.25 from what we realized in Q4, looking somewhere in the $0.45 to $0.50 range on a measured basis.

因此，如果綜合考慮這些因素，我們可以看到比現在的水平有大約 0.20 美元的上漲空間，也就是比我們在第一季指南中假設的水平有 0.20 美元到 0.25 美元的上漲空間。抱歉，根據我們在第四季實現的數字，這個數字是 0.20 美元到 0.25 美元，按照測量結果來看，這個數字在 0.45 美元到 0.50 美元之間。

Got it. And maybe as a follow-up, I was hoping to get an update on how you're viewing a potential Mt. Holly restart given current Midwest premiums and the implication of 232 tariffs. And then I had the same question for Hawesville. Has this impacted your ongoing strategic process?

知道了。也許作為後續問題，我希望了解您如何看待在當前中西部保費和 232 關稅影響下重啟 Mt. Holly 的可能性。然後我對霍斯維爾也有同樣的疑問。這是否影響了您正在進行的策略進程？

Yes, sure. Great question, Nick. So obviously, since the announcement, which was just last week, we have been updating our analysis at Mt. Holly. Obviously, the tariff program is extremely constructive for the smelter.

是的，當然。很好的問題，尼克。因此顯然，自從上週宣布這一消息以來，我們一直在更新我們在 Mt. Holly 的分析。顯然，該關稅計劃對於冶煉廠來說極具建設性。

As we mentioned, we did experience a little instability in the operations in Q4. That will get cleaned up over Q1. We also see continued high spot-hour prices. Those should also come down. So we'll continue to update you, but we're definitely moving in the right direction for a restart at Mt. Holly.

正如我們所提到的，我們在第四季度的營運中確實遇到了一些不穩定的情況。這個問題將在第一季解決。我們也看到現貨價格持續走高。這些也應該降下來。因此我們會繼續向您通報最新情況，但我們肯定正朝著重啟 Mt. Holly 的正確方向前進。

The Hawesville price list continues, evaluation ongoing. We've seen strong continued interest in the site. But obviously, we'll continue to look at the new environment as we make a decision of what to do there. But as we've said before, I think first to come will be at Mt. Holly restart and then we'll go from there.

霍斯維爾價格表仍在繼續，評估正在進行中。我們看到人們對該網站持續表現出濃厚的興趣。但顯然，我們將繼續關注新的環境，並決定在那裡做什麼。但正如我們之前所說的，我認為首先將在 Mt. Holly 重啟，然後我們從那裡出發。

Got it. Maybe one more, if I could. Maybe a more point of clarification. The 1Q guide is almost taking a double hit from the nonrecurring settlement plus the alumina spot purchase given the lags as you outlined. And is it fair to assume that this kind of negative $10 million to $15 million hit will reverse in 2Q? Or am I thinking about that wrong?

知道了。如果可以的話，也許再多一個。或許可以更清楚地說明這一點。正如您所概述的那樣，考慮到滯後因素，第一季指南幾乎受到了非經常性結算和氧化鋁現貨購買​​的雙重打擊。是否可以合理地假設，這種 1,000 萬到 1,500 萬美元的負損失將在第二季逆轉？還是我這樣想是錯的？

No, you're absolutely right, Nick. And there's just a little bit of accounting noise running through that. There's a couple of ways of looking at it. One, if instead of booking the financial settlement in Q4, you booked that in Q1, you actually wouldn't see a headwind in the all-price in Q1. Those do fully offset, as Jerry said. And secondly, you're completely correct, you won't see that repeat in Q2. So that should all come back in Q2.

不，你完全正確，尼克。這其中只存在一點點會計雜訊。有幾種觀察這問題的方法。首先，如果您不是在第四季度預訂財務結算，而是在第一季預訂，那麼您實際上不會看到第一季全價逆風。正如傑瑞所說，這些確實完全抵消了。其次，你完全正確，你不會在第二季度看到這種情況重演。所以這一切都應該在第二季回歸。

Got it. So again, congrats on the progress and continued best of luck.

知道了。所以，再次恭喜您所取得的進步，並祝您好運。

Katja Jancic, BMO.

Katja Jancic，BMO。

Maybe going back to Mt. Holly, if you do decide to restart it, how long it would take you? And what would the investment needed be?

也許回到 Mt. Holly，如果您決定重新開始，需要花多長時間？需要投資多少錢？

Yes. So we're updating all that analysis, Katja, as I said, since the news came last week. As we've said before, you're probably looking at somewhere around a nine-month timeline from decision to restart somewhere in that range. And we'll give you an update on the cost of a restart once we make that decision and announce the restart.

是的。所以正如我所說，卡佳，自從上週新聞發布以來，我們正在更新所有的分析。正如我們之前所說，從做出決定到重新開始可能需要大約九個月的時間。一旦我們做出決定並宣布重啟，我們將向您提供重啟成本的最新資訊。

Maybe if I remember correctly, when you were restarting the potline at Hawesville a few years ago, did it cost about $45 million to $50 million per pot line? Am I remembering that correctly?

如果我沒記錯的話，幾年前當您重啟霍斯維爾的電解鋁生產線時，每條生產線的成本是不是大約為 4500 萬到 5000 萬美元？我記得沒錯的話？

Yes, that's not exactly what it was. But again, there's obviously been a lot of changes since 2018 when those restarts were done for about 7 years down the line. So we'll just go ahead and give you that full analysis once we made the decision at Mt. Holly.

是的，事實並非如此。但同樣，自 2018 年重啟以來，大約 7 年後顯然發生了許多變化。因此，一旦我們在 Mt. Holly 做出決定，我們就會繼續為您提供完整的分析。

And maybe -- you mentioned the new smelter you're making progress there. And I know that this is a multiyear type of project. But can you talk a bit more about how much it would actually cost to build a new smelter in the US?

也許—您提到了正在那裡取得進展的新冶煉廠。我知道這是一個多年的項目。但您能否再詳細談談在美國建造一座新冶煉廠的實際成本是多少？

Yes. We have made really good progress on the new smelter. In January, we finished up the process to finalize the terms of the award and went formally under award with the Department of Energy for the $500 million grant that we've talked about before. We've also finished up the second phase of engineering work for the project.

是的。我們在新冶煉廠的建設上取得了良好的進展。今年 1 月，我們完成了最終確定獎項條款的流程，並正式與能源部簽訂了我們之前談到的 5 億美元資助協議。我們也完成了該專案第二階段的工程工作。

And really, the next step for the project will be to finalize the energy contract negotiations and site selection, which is ongoing today. And we'd expect that gets done by the end of Q2 or so. So we'll give you a further update on that project after we've finished that work and made a decision to move forward into the next step.

實際上，該項目的下一步將是完成能源合約談判和選址，這項工作目前正在進行中。我們預計這將在第二季末左右完成。因此，在我們完成這項工作並決定進入下一步之後，我們將向您提供該專案的進一步更新資訊。

Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

坦納斯（Timna Tanners），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

I wanted to kind of hit back on some of the topics that have been -- hello. So I guess to circle back on Hawesville, just the one sentence in your prepared remarks that made me wonder, is there less conviction on that process? Do you have anything in terms of timing or progress that you can update us on? And just to circle back, it is possible that it restart, or are you pursuing this alternative at 100%?

我想回擊一下我們之前討論過的一些話題 — — 你好。所以我想回到霍斯維爾事件，您準備好的發言中有一句話讓我感到疑惑，是否對這一進程缺乏信心？關於時間安排或進度方面，您有什麼可以向我們通報的嗎？回到正題，它有可能重新啟動嗎，或者您是否 100% 追求這種替代方案？

Not at all. Nothing to read into that update other than the process continues to be going well. Very strong continued interest in the site and lots of people doing due diligence. As I said on the last call, it is a complicated process, and it's a little bit different than some of the other transactions that you've seen done in the space, where here, we're going from an industrial site to a potentially different use case.

一點也不。除了流程繼續順利進行之外，該更新沒有什麼可解讀的。人們對該網站的持續興趣非常濃厚，許多人都在進行盡職調查。正如我在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，這是一個複雜的過程，它與您在該領域看到的其他一些交易略有不同，在這裡，我們從一個工業現場轉向一個潛在的不同用例。

And as you might imagine, given the capital scale of what a potential purchaser would be looking at, they want to do their due diligence first. And so that's really ongoing. The process is still going well, and we'd expect to continue to keep you updated.

你可能會想像，考慮到潛在買家所考慮的資本規模，他們首先需要做好盡職調查。這確實還在進行中。進程目前仍進展順利，我們希望繼續向您通報最新進展。

To the second part of your question, Timna, what we said all along is we will always measure whatever comes out of this process versus the potential value of the site under our restart scenario. And obviously, the recent actions will help the second part of that analysis. So we'll just go ahead and pursue the process. And once we finish it, we'll give everyone an update. But nothing to read into. The process continues to go well, and we're excited about it.

對於你問題的第二部分，蒂姆娜，我們一直在說的是，我們將始終衡量這一過程的結果與重啟情景下該場地的潛在價值。顯然，最近的行動將有助於該分析的第二部分。因此我們將繼續推進這一進程。一旦我們完成，我們會向大家提供最新消息。但沒什麼好讀的。整個過程進展順利，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Also really enjoy the industry environment forecast that you have here for Midwest premium staying high alumina prices, those are helpful. In the assumption here that does include a 25% Section 232 effectiveness on March 12. But is there any assumption of an additional tariff on Canada? Is that in your thought process of what could play out going forward with that debate -- I guess, that dialogue is ongoing?

也非常欣賞您提供的有關中西部優質氧化鋁價格保持高位的行業環境預測，這些預測很有幫助。這裡的假設確實包括 3 月 12 日第 232 條的 25% 生效期。但是否存在對加拿大徵收額外關稅的假設？您是否認為這場辯論接下來會如何發展？我想，對話仍在繼續？

Yes. We continue to watch that dialogue as well. And just to be clear, that's not included either in our guidance or sort of my views on where Midwest premium can go that I gave when we were speaking to Nick earlier. So again, we think fundamentally, if the 25% tariff goes on, you'll see a Midwest premium somewhere in the $0.45 to $0.50 range, and that does not include any other additional tariffs that may come.

是的。我們也在繼續關注該對話。需要明確的是，這既不包含在我們的指導中，也不包含我之前與尼克交談時給出的關於中西部溢價走向的看法。因此，我們再次認為，從根本上來說，如果 25% 的關稅繼續徵收，中西部地區的溢價將介於 0.45 美元到 0.50 美元之間，而且這還不包括可能產生的任何其他額外關稅。

And then last one for me, Jamalco, you've been talking about expanding in this alumina environment. That sounds great. And I think that would be part of the support for Mt. Holly. So I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that properly. But can you talk about the capital cost and timing for that expansion?

最後一個問題，賈馬爾科，您一直在談論在氧化鋁環境中擴張。聽起來不錯。我認為這將是對 Mt. Holly 的支持的一部分。所以我只是想確保我對這個問題進行了正確的思考。但是您能談談此次擴張的資本成本和時機嗎？

Yes. We have -- but just to remind you, so the investment CapEx at Jamalco, we estimate will be somewhere in the $50 million to $20 million range in 2025. You'll probably see a similar range in 2026 as we continue to invest in projects that are needed to bring that production capacity back up. And that's included in the investment CapEx that's in the back of our deck.

是的。我們有——但只是提醒您，所以我們估計 Jamalco 的投資資本支出到 2025 年將在 5000 萬美元到 2000 萬美元之間。隨著我們繼續投資恢復生產能力所需的項目，您可能會在 2026 年看到類似的範圍。這包括在我們平台後面的投資資本支出。

But is that part of the process of thinking about the Mt. Holly restart is to secure that additional alumina capacity? Or are they not necessarily linked?

但是，重啟 Mt. Holly 工廠的考慮是否也是為了確保額外的氧化鋁產能呢？或者說它們沒有必然聯繫？

They're not necessarily linked. We can secure that in the marketplace, Timna. But of course, as we look to keep our book balanced, we're excited to have that additional production within our portfolio.

它們之間沒有必然聯繫。我們可以在市場上確保這一點，蒂姆納。但當然，當我們尋求保持帳面平衡時，我們很高興在我們的投資組合中擁有額外的產量。

John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.

約翰·圖馬佐斯（John Tumazos），非常獨立的研究。

Today, the International Aluminum Institute reported record daily global output, up 2.5%, and with inventories falling, it implies about a 3.5% demand growth rate in the early part of this year. And last year's apparent demand growth rate was about the same 3.5%. Do you think demand is growing that rapidly? Or do you think that there's some inventory building maybe because of alumina worries, less Russia exports, less China exports, maybe lower interest rates encourages some restocking or some tariff uncertainties?

今天，國際鋁業協會報告稱，全球日產量創下歷史新高，成長了2.5%，而且由於庫存下降，這意味著今年年初的需求成長率約為3.5%。去年的表觀需求成長率也約為3.5%。您認為需求成長如此快速嗎？或者您認為，庫存增加可能是因為對氧化鋁的擔憂、俄羅斯出口減少、中國出口減少，或許是較低的利率鼓勵了部分補貨或關稅的不確定性？

No, John, we really haven't seen any evidence of any sort of shadow stockpiling, if you will, if that's sort of what the question is. We think that the 49-day number has been very stable, and you've continued to see that tick down over the past several quarters. And we do think that -- I can't speak to IAI's exact numbers, but I think the ballpark that you gave and the analysis there is largely correct. As I said in my prepared remarks, we think aluminum demand will outpace aluminum supply growth over the next several years for sure.

不，約翰，我們確實沒有看到任何形式的影子儲備的證據，如果你願意的話，如果這就是問題所在的話。我們認為 49 天的數字一直非常穩定，並且在過去的幾個季度中，您會看到該數字持續下降。我們確實認為——我無法說出 IAI 的具體數字，但我認為您給出的大概數字和分析基本上是正確的。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們認為未來幾年鋁需求的成長肯定會超過鋁供應的成長。

If I could follow up, the IAI reported a record Chinese output for January, 120,645 tons a day. It used to be that they would cut output in the winter to reduce urban pollution, but they've migrated and changed their energy sources a little bit. How do you interpret the Chinese output at a record in the middle of the winter? And with 6 million tons of alumina capacity being idled, should we adjust that 45-million-ton cap to 48 million or 50 million?

如果我可以跟進的話，IAI 報告稱中國 1 月份的產量創下了歷史新高，達到每日 120,645 噸。過去，他們會在冬季削減產量，以減少城市污染，但他們已經遷移並稍微改變了能源來源。您如何解讀中國在冬季中旬創下歷史新高的產量？目前氧化鋁產能有600萬噸處於閒置狀態，是否應該將4500萬噸的產能上限調整為4800萬噸或5000萬噸？

No, absolutely not, John. I think both our view and I think widely the marketplace view is that the Chinese are respecting the 45-million-ton cap, and we would expect that will be where it goes going forward. And I think one thing that hasn't been talked about a lot, but the decision back in the fall to eliminate the VAT rebate on export is actually a sign of their intention to recognize that 45-million-ton cap.

不，絕對不是，約翰。我認為，我們的觀點以及市場普遍的看法都認為，中國尊重 4500 萬噸的上限，而我們預計未來的發展也將如此。我認為有一件事還沒有被談論很多，那就是去年秋天取消出口增值稅退稅的決定實際上表明他們有意承認 4500 萬噸的上限。

So in other words, as they look to meet their own downstream demand, they're going to keep all those semi-products within China that used to lead. So we view those as actually very supportive of the 45-million-ton cap and really bolsters and supports that that's the intention of the Chinese government. Of course, we'll see, but that's our view for now.

換句話說，當他們尋求滿足自己的下游需求時，他們會把所有曾經佔據領先地位的半成品留在中國境內。因此，我們認為這些實際上非常支持 4500 萬噸的上限，並且真正鞏固和支持了這是中國政府的意圖。當然，我們會看到，但這是我們目前的觀點。

This time, there are no more questions registered in the queue. (Operator Instructions) There are no more questions registered in the queue. I'd like to pass the conference back over to our hosting team for closing remarks.

這次，隊列中沒有註冊任何問題。（操作員指示）隊列中沒有其他問題。我想將會議交還給我們的主辦團隊，由他們作最後發言。

Okay. Thanks, everyone, for joining the call. We're really excited about what's to come in 2025 for Century. We think the market sets up very well for our company, and we're glad to continue our role that we play both in the United States and Europe in producing aluminum that's needed. Thank you very much. Talk to you next quarter.

好的。感謝大家參加電話會議。我們對世紀在 2025 年的前景感到非常興奮。我們認為市場對我們公司來說非常有利，我們很高興能夠繼續在美國和歐洲發揮我們所需的鋁生產作用。非常感謝。下個季度再聊。

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and enjoy the rest of your day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，祝您今天過得愉快。