Century Aluminum Co (CENX) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's Century Aluminum Company second-quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Makia, and I'll be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

午安.感謝您參加今天的世紀鋁業公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Makia，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。（操作員指示）

At this time, I'd like to pass the call over to our host, Ryan Crawford. Ryan, you may now begin today's call.

現在，我想將電話轉給我們的主持人瑞安·克勞福德 (Ryan Crawford)。瑞安，你現在可以開始今天的通話了。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

謝謝您，接線生。大家下午好，歡迎參加電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有世紀公司總裁兼執行長傑西·加里 (Jesse Gary) 和執行副總裁兼財務長兼財務主管彼得·特普科夫斯基 (Peter Trpkovski)。

After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD.

在準備好評論後，我們將回答您的問題。提醒一下，今天的簡報可在我們的網站 www.centuryaluminum.com 上查看。我們將網站用作揭露公司重大資訊以及遵守公平揭露規則 (Regulation FD) 的管道。

Turning to slide 1. Please take a moment to review the cautionary statements with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures in today's discussion.

翻到幻燈片 1。請花一點時間查看今天討論中有關前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標的警示聲明。

And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

說完這些，我就把電話交給傑西。

Thanks, Ryan, and thanks to everyone for joining. We find ourselves today in an excellent market environment for Century. So I'll start by reviewing our second-quarter performance and the strong macro conditions we've had so far in 2025.

謝謝，Ryan，也謝謝大家的加入。我們發現，今天世紀的市場環境非常好。因此，我將首先回顧我們第二季的業績以及 2025 年迄今的強勁宏觀條件。

I'll then walk through our operational performance for the quarter and an update on some of our strategic initiatives, including our very exciting announcement regarding the restart of 50,000 metric tonnes of additional production at Mt. Holly. Pete will then take you through the details of the Q2 results and our third-quarter outlook before we turn it over for questions.

然後，我將介紹本季的營運表現以及一些策略性舉措的最新情況，包括我們關於在 Mt. Holly 重啟 50,000 公噸額外生產的非常令人興奮的公告。在我們回答問題之前，Pete 將向您介紹第二季業績的詳細資訊和第三季的展望。

Let me begin with safety, which is core to everything we do here at Century. Our safety performance has shown improvement across our assets in the first half of the year. This is rewarding to see as we continue to invest substantial time and effort towards improving the safety culture at each of our locations.

首先我要說一下安全，這是世紀公司所做的一切工作的核心。上半年，我們各項資產的安全表現均有所改善。看到這一點我們感到非常欣慰，因為我們將繼續投入大量時間和精力來改善每個地點的安全文化。

We've been specifically focused over the first half on the launch of our new safety program. Mt. Holly will be the pilot site for this new initiative that we have been working on with DuPont Safety Systems, and we are really excited to get it off the ground as we head into the second half of the year.

上半年我們特別注重推出新的安全計畫。霍利山將成為我們與杜邦安全系統公司合作的這項新計畫的試點，我們非常高興能夠在下半年啟動這項計畫。

Turning to financial results. Century generated $74 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. Rising Midwest premiums offset lower realized LME and European premiums, as well as higher-than-expected market energy prices in the second quarter. Realized LME prices averaged $2,540 in Q2, while realized Midwest and European premiums averaged $850 and $220 in the quarter.

談到財務結果。世紀集團第二季的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 7,400 萬美元。中西部地區保費上漲抵消了倫敦金屬交易所和歐洲保費實際下降以及第二季度市場能源價格高於預期的影響。第二季 LME 實際價格平均為 2,540 美元，而本季中西部和歐洲實際溢價平均為 850 美元和 220 美元。

Midwest premiums saw significant positive improvement during the quarter as we began to see the benefits from President Trump's Section 232 tariffs impact our results. As we have discussed, in February, President Trump restored the effectiveness of the Section 232 program by revoking all country and product exemptions and raising the tariff rate for aluminum from 10% to 25%. These became effective on March 12 and due to our contractual lags first rolled through our results in Q2.

由於我們開始看到川普總統第 232 條關稅帶來的好處對我們的業績產生影響，中西部保費在本季度出現了顯著的正面改善。正如我們所討論的，今年 2 月，川普總統透過撤銷所有國家和產品豁免並將鋁的關稅稅率從 10% 提高到 25%，恢復了第 232 條計畫的有效性。這些措施於 3 月 12 日生效，並且由於我們的合約滯後，我們在第二季的業績中首次採用了這些措施。

In June, President Trump took additional action to raise the Section 232 tariff to 50% in order to support the domestic industry and incentivize domestic production to ensure our national security. Following this announcement, spot Midwest premium today is sitting at close to $1,600 per tonne or $0.72 per pound. Just please remember, while these tariffs became effective in Q2, they will only partially affect our results in Q3 and then be fully reflected in our results in Q4. Pete will give you more details here.

6月，川普總統採取進一步行動，將第232條款關稅提高至50%，以支持國內產業並激勵國內生產，確保國家安全。消息公佈後，今日中西部現貨溢價接近每噸 1,600 美元或每磅 0.72 美元。請記住，雖然這些關稅在第二季生效，但它們只會部分影響我們第三季的業績，然後將完全反映在第四季的業績中。皮特將在這裡向您提供更多詳細資訊。

The best part of this news is that the Section 232 program is working as we have seen strong domestic demand for all of our products and our customers are increasing orders. And as the largest producer of primary aluminum in the United States, Century is doing its part to build and secure the aluminum production that is so essential to US national security needs. More on that at the end of my remarks.

這個消息最好的部分是第 232 條計劃正在發揮作用，因為我們看到國內對我們所有產品的需求強勁，而且我們的客戶正在增加訂單。作為美國最大的原鋁生產商，世紀鋁業正在盡自己的一份力量來建造和保障對美國國家安全至關重要的鋁生產。更多內容請見我的發言結尾。

In July, we were also very pleased to complete the refinancing of our outstanding 7.5% senior secured notes in Icelandic casthouse loan facility with the issuance of our new $400 million tranche of [6.875%] notes. Pete will walk you through the details here, but we are really pleased to simplify our debt structure, lower our interest costs and push out the maturities with this transaction.

7 月份，我們也非常高興地完成了冰島鑄造廠貸款中未償還的 7.5% 優先擔保票據的再融資，發行了新的 4 億美元 [6.875%] 票據。皮特將在這裡向您介紹細節，但我們非常高興透過這筆交易簡化我們的債務結構，降低我們的利息成本並延長債務期限。

Turning to slide 4. Power prices fell quarter over quarter, but unusually warm summer temperatures led to slightly higher-than-expected energy costs for Century in Q2. These temperatures persisted into July, but we have now returned to more normalized levels. With natural gas prices also falling to $3 per MMBtu, we expect power prices to continue to move lower as we enter into the fall shoulder season.

翻到幻燈片 4。電價環比下降，但夏季異常溫暖的氣溫導致世紀能源第二季的能源成本略高於預期。這些溫度一直持續到七月，但現在已恢復到更正常的水平。隨著天然氣價格也降至每百萬英熱單位 3 美元，我們預計進入秋季平季後電價將繼續走低。

Turning to page 5. As you can see in the top left graph, we continue to expect constraints on new global supply to drive a global market deficit in 2025. Global aluminum supply remains challenged with China very near its 45 million tonne production cap and limited announced new global projects. We believe demand growth will continue to outpace supply in 2025 and for years to come. Global inventories remain near post-financial crisis lows in Q2 at 47 days.

翻到第 5 頁。正如您在左上角的圖表中所看到的，我們仍然預計，全球新供應的限制將在 2025 年導致全球市場短缺。全球鋁供應仍面臨挑戰，中國已接近其 4,500 萬噸的產量上限，且全球新宣布的項目有限。我們相信，2025 年及未來幾年需求成長將持續超過供應。全球庫存在第二季仍維持在 47 天的金融危機後低點附近。

We have seen US demand for domestically produced billets continue to grow this year following the effectiveness of the revised Section 232 tariffs on aluminum in March. Century's domestic billet shipments are up 8% year over year in the first half, as downstream customers look to shift supply chains back to the US following the expansion of the Section 232 program to cover extrusions.

自 3 月修訂後的 232 條款鋁關稅生效以來，我們看到美國對國產鋼坯的需求今年持續成長。由於第 232 條計畫擴大至涵蓋擠壓材後下游客戶希望將供應鏈轉移回美國，世紀鋼坯上半年國內出貨量年增 8%。

As we begin to enter into the 2026 billet season, the strong domestic demand growth should be supportive of higher value-added aluminum premiums in 2026. Just as a reminder, our value-added products in the US are sold on an annual basis. So we would expect to see those increased billet prices flow through the results beginning in the first quarter of next year.

隨著我們開始進入 2026 年鋼坯季節，強勁的國內需求成長應該會支撐 2026 年更高的附加價值鋁溢價。提醒一下，我們在美國的加值產品是按年銷售的。因此，我們預計鋼坯價格上漲將從明年第一季開始體現在業績中。

Turning to alumina. Global supplies remained stable with market pricing remaining at normalized levels in Q2. Spot API prices are approximately $375 today. The Atlantic region, where our Jamalco operations are located, has become increasingly short alumina, resulting in an expanding Atlantic premium for alumina of about $30 today. This is a good example of how Jamalco, like Century Smelters, benefits from its strategic geographic locations close to its customers in short markets.

轉向氧化鋁。第二季全球供應維持穩定，市場價格維持在正常水準。目前現貨 API 價格約為 375 美元。我們的 Jamalco 業務所在地大西洋地區的氧化鋁供應日益短缺，導致大西洋地區的氧化鋁溢價目前已擴大至約 30 美元。這是一個很好的例子，說明 Jamalco 如何像 Century Smelters 一樣，受益於其靠近短期市場客戶的策略地理位置。

The bauxite market also continued to experience turbulence, especially in Guinea, where operating licenses for several key producers have been suspended and, in some cases, revoked. These disruptions have lent continued support to seaborne bauxite prices and in turn, the alumina price. Please remember that Jamalco does not have exposure to seaborne bauxite prices as the plant is totally self-sufficient through its long-term mining licenses, another key strategic differentiator for the plant.

鋁土礦市場也持續動盪，尤其是在幾內亞，幾家主要生產商的營運許可證已被暫停，有些甚至被撤銷。這些中斷持續支撐了海運鋁土礦價格，進而支撐了氧化鋁價格。請記住，Jamalco 不受海運鋁土礦價格的影響，因為該工廠透過其長期採礦許可證完全自給自足，這是該工廠的另一個關鍵戰略優勢。

Turning to page 6. You can see that spot coke, HFO, and caustic soda prices remain near their year-to-date average prices.

翻到第 6 頁。您可以看到焦炭、重油和燒鹼的現貨價格仍接近年初至今的平均價格。

Okay. On to operations. Our assets continued to deliver strong operating results in Q2. Starting with Sebree, the plant had another excellent quarter, producing strong operating results despite the very hot summer weather. The plant also completed its planned major maintenance program in the carbon plant on schedule and without any impact on production levels.

好的。開始操作。我們的資產在第二季持續取得強勁的經營業績。從 Sebree 開始，該工廠又度過了一個出色的季度，儘管夏季天氣非常炎熱，但仍取得了強勁的經營業績。該工廠還按時完成了碳廠計劃的重大維護計劃，並且沒有對生產水平產生任何影響。

The team at Sebree continues to deliver quarter-after-quarter. In Iceland, Grundartangi continued to ramp its billet casthouse production as it optimizes performance during its first full year of operations. Grundartangi did see a slight production volume headwind of about 3,000 metric tonnes in the quarter as it experienced a failure in one of its electrical transformers. While the plant was able to continue full operations with redundant equipment, it will run on slightly lower amperage until a replacement is on site.

Sebree 團隊繼續每季都交付成果。在冰島，Grundartangi 在營運的第一年就持續優化性能，並持續提高鋼坯鑄造廠的產量。由於一台電力變壓器發生故障，Grundartangi 本季的產量確實出現了約 3,000 公噸的輕微下滑。雖然該工廠能夠利用冗餘設備繼續全面運營，但在更換設備到位之前，其運行電流將略低。

Jamalco produced the targeted production levels in Q2 and remains focused on executing its major capital improvement program to return the plant to its nameplate capacity of close to 1.4 million tonnes. The new steam power generation turbine that we discussed on our last call is now on site, and the installation and integration process is underway at the plant.

Jamalco 在第二季度達到了目標產量，並繼續專注於執行其主要資本改進計劃，以使工廠恢復到接近 140 萬噸的額定產能。我們在上次通話中討論的新型蒸汽發電渦輪機現已到達現場，工廠的安裝和整合過程正在進行中。

We continue to believe the turbine will be operational in the first quarter of 2026, which will enable Jamalco to be fully self-sufficient in its power generation and lower its cost structure by reducing costly third-party power purchases.

我們仍然相信該渦輪機將於 2026 年第一季投入運營，這將使 Jamalco 能夠完全自給自足地發電，並透過減少昂貴的第三方電力採購來降低其成本結構。

At Hawesville, the strategic review process has gone well, and we are now negotiating final terms. We expect to conclude the strategic review process by the end of Q3.

在霍斯維爾，策略審查過程進展順利，我們現在正在談判最終條款。我們預計在第三季末完成戰略審查流程。

Just before I turn the call over to Pete, I'd like to thank President Trump again for the significant actions that he and his administration have taken to restore American manufacturing and stand up for American workers. The Section 232 tariffs have truly enabled a new future for the US aluminum industry.

在我將電話轉給皮特之前，我想再次感謝川普總統和他的政府為恢復美國製造業和維護美國工人權益所採取的重大行動。第232條款關稅確實為美國鋁業帶來了新的未來。

And we believe a key part of that future will be our new smelter project. Once built, the new smelter will be amongst the most modern and efficient smelters in the world. It will represent the first new smelter built in the US in 50 years and will double the size of the existing US industry, creating over 1,000 full-time direct jobs and over 5,500 construction jobs.

我們相信，未來的關鍵部分將是我們新的冶煉廠計畫。新冶煉廠建成後將成為世界上最現代化、最高效的冶煉廠之一。這將是美國 50 年來建造的第一座新冶煉廠，並將使美國現有工業規模擴大一倍，創造 1,000 多個全職直接就業機會和 5,500 多個建築就業機會。

Combined with the second new smelter project announced since President Trump took office, President Trump's policies have enabled a future where we could see US production triple by the end of the decade. This is a monumental change from the last 25 years, where failed trade policies led to the destruction of American manufacturing and American jobs.

加上川普總統上任以來宣布的第二個新冶煉廠項目，川普總統的政策有望讓我們看到，到本世紀末，美國的產量將增加兩倍。這與過去25年來的情況截然不同，當時失敗的貿易政策導緻美國製造業和美國就業機會的毀滅。

And to further Century's commitment to US aluminum production, we are very pleased to announce today that we've made the decision to restart the last 50,000 metric tonnes of capacity at Mt. Holly and return the plant to full production. This project will increase Mt. Holly's production to over 220,000 metric tonnes per year at nearly 100 full-time US manufacturing jobs at the plant and represent an investment of approximately $50 million.

為了進一步履行世紀鋁業對美國鋁生產的承諾，我們今天非常高興地宣布，我們已決定重啟 Mt. Holly 的最後 50,000 公噸產能，並使工廠恢復全面生產。該項目將使 Mt. Holly 的年產量增加到 22 萬公噸以上，為美國帶來近 100 個全職製造業職位，投資額約為 5,000 萬美元。

We expect first hot metal from the incremental pots in the first quarter of 2026 and should be at our full 220,000 tonne run rate by the end of Q2. We are confident that the combined efforts of the Mt. Holly team and our valued partners at Santee Cooper will successfully complete this critical project and ensure the long-term viability of this excellent plant. Pete will walk you through more details on the project spend in a bit.

我們預計增量熔爐將於 2026 年第一季產出第一批熱金屬，到第二季末將達到 22 萬噸的全產能。我們相信，Mt. Holly 團隊和 Santee Cooper 的尊貴合作夥伴的共同努力將成功完成這項關鍵項目並確保這家優秀工廠的長期生存能力。皮特稍後會向您詳細介紹項目支出。

Century's Mt. Holly expansion will increase total US primary aluminum production by nearly 10%, replacing imported metal. This project, along with our new smelter project, would not have been possible without President Trump's Section 232 program. We look forward to working with the Trump administration to continue to grow US aluminum production to meet our national security needs.

Century 的 Mt. Holly 擴建將使美國原鋁總產量增加近 10%，取代進口金屬。如果沒有川普總統的第 232 條計劃，這個計畫以及我們的新冶煉廠計畫就不可能實現。我們期待與川普政府合作，繼續增加美國鋁產量，以滿足我們的國家安全需求。

Pete will now take you through our financial performance in more detail.

皮特現在將向您更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to slide 7 and review our Q2 performance. On a consolidated basis, second-quarter shipments increased to approximately 176,000 tonnes, an increase of 4% sequentially, reflecting strong operational performance across all of our smelters. Net sales for the quarter were $628 million, a $6 million decrease primarily due to lower third-party alumina sales, partially offset by higher shipments and all-in metal pricing.

謝謝你，傑西。讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片，回顧一下我們第二季的表現。從綜合來看，第二季出貨量增至約 176,000 噸，較上季成長 4%，反映出我們所有冶煉廠的強勁營運表現。本季淨銷售額為 6.28 億美元，減少 600 萬美元，主要原因是第三方氧化鋁銷售額下降，但出貨量增加和全金屬價格上漲部分抵消了這一影響。

For the quarter, we reported a net loss of $5 million or $0.05 per share. Our adjusted net income was $30 million or $0.30 per share, excluding exceptional items. Adjusted EBITDA was $74 million for the quarter. As we've discussed, the Section 232 aluminum tariffs were increased to 25% with no country exemptions on March 12. While the Midwest premium began to increase from 25% tariffs in Q2 as a result, lower realized LME, and European duty paid premium partially offset this benefit.

本季度，我們報告淨虧損 500 萬美元，即每股 0.05 美元。不包括特殊項目，我們的調整後淨收入為 3000 萬美元或每股 0.30 美元。本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 7,400 萬美元。正如我們所討論的，第 232 條鋁關稅於 3 月 12 日提高至 25%，且沒有國家豁免。雖然中西部地區的溢價在第二季度從 25% 的關稅開始上漲，但 LME 實現的溢價較低以及歐洲的完稅溢價部分抵消了這一好處。

Moving on, we continue to make progress on improving our balance sheet during the quarter. Liquidity increased to $363 million, up $24 million quarter over quarter, and our cash balance stood at $41 million. Net debt was relatively flat from the prior quarter at $446 million. As you saw us announce in July, we successfully completed the refinancing of our $250 million senior secured 7.5% notes with new $400 million senior secured notes at [6.875%] extending the maturity to 2032 and simplifying our debt structure.

接下來，我們在本季繼續在改善資產負債表方面取得進展。流動性增加至 3.63 億美元，季增 2,400 萬美元，現金餘額為 4,100 萬美元。淨債務與上一季基本持平，為 4.46 億美元。正如您在 7 月看到的我們宣布的那樣，我們成功完成了 2.5 億美元優先擔保 7.5% 票據的再融資，新的 4 億美元優先擔保票據的利率為 [6.875%]，將期限延長至 2032 年，並簡化了我們的債務結構。

We are pleased to substantially lower our borrowing costs, which speaks to the improvements in our business over the past several years. The use of proceeds will be to pay down our existing credit facilities across the US and Iceland, including our Icelandic casthouse facility, which will lower overall interest expense for the company.

我們很高興大幅降低借貸成本，這反映了我們過去幾年業務的改善。所得將用於償還我們在美國和冰島的現有信貸額度，包括冰島鑄造廠信貸額度，這將降低公司的整體利息支出。

We will maintain our net debt level from before the transaction after we pay down the outstanding credit facility amounts. Our priority to lower our debt and achieve the $300 million net debt target remains unchanged. Overall, our Q2 results continue to reflect operational and capital discipline.

在償還未償還的信貸額度後，我們的淨債務水準將維持在交易前的水準。我們的首要任務是降低債務並實現 3 億美元的淨債務目標，這一目標保持不變。總體而言，我們的第二季業績繼續體現出營運和資本紀律。

Now let's turn to page 8, and I'll provide a breakdown of adjusted EBITDA results from Q1 to Q2. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter decreased $4 million to $74 million. Realized LME of $2,542 per tonne was down $11 versus prior quarter, while realized US Midwest premium of $850 per tonne was up $247, reflecting the increase in Section 232 aluminum tariffs from 10% to 25% in March. And our realized European duty paid premium decreased $115 per tonne to $220.

現在讓我們翻到第 8 頁，我將提供從第一季到第二季的調整後 EBITDA 結果的細目分類。第二季調整後 EBITDA 減少 400 萬美元至 7,400 萬美元。倫敦金屬交易所實際鋁價為每噸 2,542 美元，較上一季下跌 11 美元，而美國中西部地區實際鋁價為每噸 850 美元，上漲 247 美元，反映出 3 月第 232 條鋁關稅從 10% 上調至 25%。我們的歐洲已付關稅保費已實現每噸下降 115 美元至 220 美元。

Higher Midwest premium is slightly offset by lower LME and European premium, which when combined together contributed an incremental $11 million compared to the prior quarter. Energy costs were lower, driven by improved market energy prices versus the prior quarter. However, in June, we saw unusually warmer temperatures to start the summer and market energy prices ended the quarter higher than anticipated, muting the previously anticipated benefit from prior quarter.

中西部地區保費上漲略微被倫敦金屬交易所和歐洲保費下跌所抵消，兩者合計較上一季增加了 1,100 萬美元。由於市場能源價格較上一季上漲，能源成本下降。然而，6 月份，夏季伊始，氣溫異常升高，季度末市場能源價格高於預期，抵消了先前預期的上一季收益。

Despite this jump in June, energy prices drove a $2 million improvement quarter over quarter. Alumina and our other key raw materials were an $8 million headwind in the quarter, in line with our previously provided outlook. Currency headwinds impacted the quarter by $4 million from our foreign operations, primarily from wages denominated in local currencies. The weaker dollar drove the Icelandic krona to appreciate by more than 8% to the US currency quarter over quarter.

儘管 6 月出現了這一增長，但能源價格仍推動該季度環比增長 200 萬美元。氧化鋁和我們的其他主要原料在本季度造成了 800 萬美元的逆風，與我們先前提供的預測一致。本季度，貨幣不利因素對我們海外業務造成了 400 萬美元的影響，主要來自以當地貨幣計價的薪資。美元走弱導致冰島克朗兌美元匯率季增逾8%。

We expect this to continue into the third quarter, and I will discuss the impact of that on our Q3 projection in just a moment.

我們預計這種情況將持續到第三季度，稍後我將討論這對我們第三季預測的影響。

As Jesse discussed, we completed the maintenance project in Sebree's carbon plant and realized the OpEx headwind of $10 million in the quarter as anticipated. We ended the quarter strong from an operational perspective and saw a $5 million benefit from volume and mix.

正如傑西所討論的，我們完成了塞布里碳工廠的維護項目，並按預期在本季度實現了 1000 萬美元的營運支出逆風。從營運角度來看，我們在本季表現強勁，並從銷售和產品組合中獲得了 500 萬美元的收益。

Now let's turn to slide 9 and look at cash flow. We began the quarter with $45 million in cash. We funded $18 million of CapEx in the quarter that went primarily towards our ongoing investments at our Jamalco business. We also paid $14 million in normal interest in the quarter. We will see a reduction in future interest payments as the recent refinancing decreased our coupon to 6.875%.

現在讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片，看看現金流。本季開始時，我們的現金為 4,500 萬美元。我們本季注資 1,800 萬美元，主要用於對 Jamalco 業務的持續投資。本季我們也支付了 1400 萬美元的正常利息。由於最近的再融資將我們的票面利率降低至 6.875%，我們將看到未來利息支付的減少。

We continue to accrue 45X tax credits. As of June 30, we have a receivable of $195 million related to the full year 2023, 2024, and first half 2025 US production. We continue to expect to receive the FY23 credit in cash imminently and the remaining FY24 amount over the next six to nine months. Working capital was a build this quarter, but mostly a neutral impact for the first six months of the year.

我們繼續累積 45 倍稅收抵免。截至 6 月 30 日，我們有與 2023 年全年、2024 年和 2025 年上半年美國產量相關的應收帳款 1.95 億美元。我們仍然預計很快就會收到 FY23 現金信貸，並在未來六到九個月內收到剩餘的 FY24 金額。本季營運資本增加，但對今年前六個月的影響基本上為中性。

We ended Q2 with $41 million in cash and strong liquidity in place to support our strategy going forward, including organic growth projects such as Mt. Holly restart.

我們在第二季結束時擁有 4100 萬美元的現金和強大的流動性，以支持我們未來的策略，包括重啟 Mt. Holly 等有機成長項目。

As Jesse discussed, we are really excited to announce the restart of our currently idle capacity at Mt. Holly, bringing back 50,000 tonnes of production to reach production volume of over 220,000 tonnes per year. The project spend will be approximately $50 million to restart those last 90 pots, which will almost be a straight-line spend through the completion of the project by the end of Q2 2026. To be clear, that's about $4 million per month over the next year.

正如傑西所討論的，我們非常高興地宣布重新啟動 Mt. Holly 目前閒置的產能，恢復 50,000 噸的產量，達到每年超過 220,000 噸的產量。該項目將花費約 5,000 萬美元來重啟最後 90 個罐子，這幾乎是一筆直線支出，直到 2026 年第二季末工程完成。具體來說，這意味著未來一年每月約有 400 萬美元。

We will also have some working capital to procure additional raw materials to support the energizing of these pots. The additional working capital is approximately $15 million and will mostly come in 2026. We expect to fund the project through our current balance sheet. The financial benefits of the project are incremental volume at favorable margin and fixed cost absorption. At spot pricing levels, we expect the project to nearly pay back our investment by the end of 2026.

我們還將有一些營運資金來採購額外的原料，以支持這些鍋子的通電。額外營運資金約 1500 萬美元，大部分將於 2026 年到位。我們希望透過當前的資產負債表為該項目提供資金。此專案的財務收益是有利利潤的增量產量和固定成本的吸收。以現貨價格水平，我們預計該項目將在 2026 年底前基本收回我們的投資。

Now let's look ahead for the next 90 days. At current realized prices, we expect Q3 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $115 million to $125 million. For Q3, the lagged LME of $2,495 per tonne is expected to be down about $45 versus Q2 realized prices. The Q3 lagged US Midwest premium of $1,450 per tonne is up $600 versus Q2 and partially reflects the Section 232 aluminum tariff increase from 25% to 50%. The European delivery premium is expected to be $200 per tonne in Q3 or down about $20 per tonne.

現在讓我們展望未來 90 天。以目前實現價格計算，我們預計第三季調整後的 EBITDA 在 1.15 億美元至 1.25 億美元之間。對於第三季度，預計 LME 滯後價格為每噸 2,495 美元，較第二季度實現價格下跌約 45 美元。第三季落後的美國中西部地區溢價為每噸 1,450 美元，較第二季上漲 600 美元，部分反映了第 232 條鋁關稅從 25% 上調至 50% 的影響。預計第三季歐洲交貨溢價為每噸 200 美元，或下降約每噸 20 美元。

Taken together, the lagged LME and delivery premium changes are expected to have a $50 million increase to Q3 adjusted EBITDA when compared with Q2 levels. US energy prices remained slightly elevated in Q3 thus far, but we have started to see historical levels return in August. Lower oil prices will also benefit the price of heavy fuel oil, a key input at our Jamalco refinery. At these prices, total energy headwinds should reduce adjusted EBITDA by $5 million.

綜合來看，與第二季水準相比，滯後的 LME 和交割溢價變化預計將使第三季調整後的 EBITDA 增加 5,000 萬美元。到目前為止，美國能源價格在第三季仍然略有上漲，但我們開始看到 8 月價格回升至歷史水準。油價下跌也將有利於重質燃料油的價格，重質燃料油是我們 Jamalco 煉油廠的關鍵原料。以這些價格，整體能源逆風將導致調整後的 EBITDA 減少 500 萬美元。

Coke, pitch, and caustic prices have all remained steady in recent months and are expected to be flat in Q3. We continue to expect further headwinds from currency into the third quarter at our foreign operations on the US dollar impact on wages and other local currency-denominated expenses. We are estimating a $5 million impact in Q3.

近幾個月來，焦炭、瀝青和苛性鹼價格都保持穩定，預計第三季將持平。我們預計，第三季我們的海外業務將面臨進一步的貨幣阻力，美元將對工資和其他以當地貨幣計價的支出產生影響。我們估計第三季的影響為 500 萬美元。

As previously discussed, we completed the carbon plant maintenance project at our Sebree, Kentucky facility in Q2 as anticipated and expect our Q3 OpEx to improve by $5 million to $10 million. Volume and mix are expected to decrease by $0 million to $5 million from Q2 levels.

如前所述，我們在第二季按預期完成了位於肯塔基州塞布里工廠的碳工廠維護項目，並預計第三季的營運支出將改善 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元。預計交易量和產品組合將較第二季減少 0 百萬美元至 5 百萬美元。

We also include the estimated hedge and tax impacts to help model our business. We expect a $5 million to $10 million headwind from realized hedge settlements and a $0 million to $5 million tax expense, both flowing through the Q3 P&L and impacting adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share. As a reminder, our appendix details the full hedge book and continues to show the vast majority of LME and regional premium volumes are exposed to market prices.

我們還包括估計的對沖和稅收影響，以幫助模擬我們的業務。我們預計已實現的對沖結算將帶來 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的不利因素，稅收支出將為 0 萬至 500 萬美元，這兩項因素都將流入第三季的損益表，並影響調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股盈餘。提醒一下，我們的附錄詳細介紹了完整的對沖帳簿，並繼續顯示絕大多數 LME 和區域溢價量都受到市場價格的影響。

Finally, we are very excited to deliver results in such a favorable market environment. Because of our contractual lags on our revenues, the strong price environment we see today will continue to drive our earnings growth beyond Q3 and into Q4.

最後，我們非常高興能夠在如此有利的市場環境下取得成果。由於我們的營收存在合約滯後現象，我們今天看到的強勁價格環境將繼續推動我們的獲利成長，超越第三季度，進入第四季度。

With spot LME prices exceeding $2,600 per tonne and Midwest premium at $0.72 per pound or approximately $1,600 per tonne, we are extremely well positioned to capitalize on this momentum and achieve additional earnings growth in Q4.

由於倫敦金屬交易所現貨價格超過每噸 2,600 美元，中西部地區溢價為每磅 0.72 美元或每噸約 1,600 美元，我們完全有能力利用這一勢頭，在第四季度實現額外的盈利增長。

We thank you for your time and look forward to taking your questions.

感謝您抽出時間並期待回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Kat Jancic, BMO.

（操作員指示）Kat Jancic，BMO。

Starting on Mt. Holly, can you talk a bit about your sourcing plans for raw materials, especially alumina?

從 Mt. Holly 開始，您能談談原料採購計劃，尤其是氧化鋁嗎？

Sure. Hi, Katja. Thanks for the question. Yeah, we'll be able to service the additional alumina needs for Mt. Holly within our already set alumina book for 2026. So, we don't see any changes necessary to our current alumina sourcing planning in order to serve the additional alumina needs for the smelter. You can continue to use the alumina information that we include in our slide deck on page 18 to model our alumina exposure for 2026.

當然。你好，卡佳。謝謝你的提問。是的，我們將能夠在已設定的 2026 年氧化鋁訂單範圍內滿足 Mt. Holly 額外的氧化鋁需求。因此，我們認為沒有必要對目前的氧化鋁採購計畫進行任何改變，以滿足冶煉廠額外的氧化鋁需求。您可以繼續使用我們在第 18 頁的幻燈片中包含的氧化鋁資訊來模擬 2026 年的氧化鋁暴露。

And then maybe just on the 45X credit, I'm assuming that, that incremental 50,000 tonnes is going to get that benefit as well. Is that fair? And how much could it be if that's true?

然後也許僅在 45X 信貸上，我假設增量的 50,000 噸也將獲得該好處。這樣公平嗎？如果這是真的，那會是多少錢？

Yeah, that's correct. So you can just take those incremental tonnes and compare that to our existing tonnes and our existing credit, which we've said should average in the $70 million to $80 million range, and you should get sort of a pro forma amount of additional 45X credit for those additional 50,000 tonnes.

是的，沒錯。因此，您只需將這些增量噸位與我們現有的噸位和現有信貸進行比較，我們所說的平均信貸額度應在 7,000 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元之間，那麼對於這額外的 50,000 噸，您應該獲得額外 45 倍信貸額度的形式上金額。

Yeah. Katja, I would just add, it's Pete. Obviously, 45X is just the US production. So just look at the US production volume for that.

是的。卡佳，我只想補充一下，他是皮特。顯然，45X 只是美國生產的。因此，只需看看美國的產量即可。

And I know you mentioned that the manufacturing credit receivable is still at $195 million. I thought some of that around $60 million was expected this quarter. Can you talk about maybe is there any -- are there any delays? Or when could we see some of that credit actually in cash?

我知道您提到製造業信貸應收款仍為 1.95 億美元。我認為本季預計的收入約為 6,000 萬美元。您能談談是否有任何延誤嗎？或者我們什麼時候才能真正以現金形式看到這些信貸？

Yeah. Thanks, Katja. It's Pete again. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we currently continue to expect the FY23 amount imminently and expect our FY24 amount over the next six to nine months. So just to elaborate, we do have some visibility into the tax return, and we have a certain level of engagement with the IRS. And we can see that our return is in the final stages of processing, and that's for the FY23 amount. We did just file our FY24 return, and that's why I said we expect that one over the next six to nine months.

是的。謝謝，卡佳。又是皮特。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們目前繼續預期 FY23 金額即將到來，並預計 FY24 金額將在未來六到九個月內到來。詳細來說，我們確實對報稅表有一定的了解，並且我們與美國國稅局有一定程度的合作。我們可以看到，我們的退貨正處於處理的最後階段，這是 FY23 金額。我們確實剛剛提交了 FY24 申報表，這就是我說我們預計在未來六到九個月內完成申報表的原因。

And that should be a good time frame going forward as we process 45X credits in the future.

這應該是一個很好的時間框架，因為我們將來會處理 45X 信用。

Nick Giles, B. Riley.

尼克·賈爾斯、B.萊利。

Guys, nice to see the Mt. Holly announcement here. I read in the release that some final details are subject to the definitive agreement with Santee Cooper and then also some economic incentives provided by Berkeley County in South Carolina. Are you able to give us a sense for those incentives or how much they ultimately played into the decision?

夥計們，很高興在這裡看到 Mt. Holly 的公告。我在新聞稿中看到，一些最終細節取決於與桑蒂庫珀的最終協議，以及南卡羅來納州伯克利縣提供的一些經濟激勵措施。您能否讓我們了解這些激勵措施或它們最終對決策產生了多大的影響？

Those are not public, Nick, so we can't talk about those at this time and it is obviously helpful and important for the restart and the State of South Carolina has been a very good partner in making sure that those important manufacturing jobs stay in the state. So we're very thankful to the work they've done.

尼克，這些都不是公開的，所以我們現在不能談論這些，這顯然對重啟經濟有幫助，也很重要，南卡羅來納州一直是確保這些重要的製造業工作留在該州的非常好的合作夥伴。因此我們非常感謝他們所做的工作。

But both the power contract and those incentives, while we have agreements in principle, we'll just need to get nailed down over the coming weeks. Don't anticipate any problems there. And again, I would just like to thank our partners at Santee, who we've been partners with for nearly 50 years now at Mt. Holly.

但是，儘管我們在原則上已經達成協議，但無論是電力合約還是那些激勵措施，我們只需要在未來幾週內將其確定下來。不要預期那裡會出現任何問題。我還要再次感謝我們在桑蒂的合作夥伴，我們在霍利山已經與他們合作了近 50 年。

Got it. Maybe next one. Just was hoping to get an update on Hawesville. How should we think about your appetite to continue to pursue a deal with a developer versus a potential restart?

知道了。也許是下一個。只是希望獲得有關霍斯維爾的最新消息。我們應該如何看待您是想繼續與開發商達成交易還是可能重新開始？

Yeah. That process, as I said, continues, but we are now in final negotiation. So we do make -- or we are making good progress. And we would expect that we'll finish sort of the entire strategic review process, which includes both those negotiations and also our analysis on restart over the next quarter and be able to really make a decision on go forward for Hawesville at that time. But the process continues to be good and constructive, Nick. We continue to have positive engagement and those negotiations are moving forward well.

是的。正如我所說，這一進程仍在繼續，但我們現在處於最後的談判階段。所以我們確實取得了——或者說我們正在取得良好的進展。我們預計將完成整個策略審查過程，其中包括談判以及下一季重啟的分析，並能夠真正做出關於霍斯維爾未來發展的決定。但這個過程仍然很好而且有建設性，尼克。我們持續保持積極接觸，談判進展順利。

Good to hear. Just one more, if I could. Can you remind us just how should we think about milestones with regard to the new smelter. I mean, would site selection be kind of the first announcement? Is that kind of -- could we see something there before year-end? Or should we look to kind of 2026 for that to progress further?

很高興聽到這個消息。如果可以的話，再說一個。您能否提醒我們，我們應該如何考慮新冶煉廠的里程碑？我的意思是，選址會是第一個公告嗎？是這樣嗎——我們能在年底前看到一些東西嗎？或者我們應該期待 2026 年會取得進一步進展？

Yeah. Nick, the first milestone or the next milestone that you'll see will likely be that site selection, which is tied to coming to an agreement on the energy. So you'll see those two announcements likely at the same time. And while I won't sort of handicap the time frame there, we do continue to work actively on that.

是的。尼克，你看到的第一個里程碑或下一個里程碑很可能是選址，這與達成能源協議有關。因此，您很可能會同時看到這兩個公告。雖然我不會對時間框架進行限制，但我們確實會繼續積極地致力於此。

As you might imagine, that is one of the more complex parts of developing the project, given the large amount of energy that's needed and given the significant state incentive packages that will also play a role in citing that project. But -- so I'll just say we continue to work hard on it, making positive progress, and we'll come back to you as soon as we can. But that's the next announcement.

正如您可能想像的那樣，這是開發該專案最複雜的部分之一，因為需要大量的能源，而且政府提供的大量激勵措施也將在該專案的實施中發揮作用。但是——所以我只想說，我們會繼續努力，取得積極進展，我們會盡快回覆您。但那是下一個公告。

The next stage would be to do the next phase of engineering work, which will be site specific, which will give you another six to nine months of engineering time. So again, like we said on the last call, you're probably looking in the second half of 2026 before you see any major spending on the project on the capital side.

下一階段將進行下一階段的工程工作，該工作將針對特定地點，這將為您提供另外六到九個月的工程時間。所以，就像我們在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，您可能要等到 2026 年下半年才會看到該項目在資本方面有任何重大支出。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Katja Jancic, BMO.

Katja Jancic，BMO。

Thank you for taking my follow-up. Maybe just quickly, you mentioned that in 2Q, we're not going to fully see the benefit from the Midwest premium as it stands currently, and the LME aluminum price is also at higher levels than what's baked into your 2Q guide. So if we assume your sensitivities and the current spot prices, is it fair to assume that your EBITDA generation could be in the range of $140 million to $150 million?

感謝您接受我的跟進。也許只是很快，您提到在第二季度，我們不會完全看到中西部溢價的好處，而且倫敦金屬交易所的鋁價也高於您在第二季度指南中給出的水平。因此，如果我們假設您的敏感度和當前的現貨價格，那麼假設您的 EBITDA 產生值可能在 1.4 億美元至 1.5 億美元之間是否公平？

Thanks, Katja. Great question. Let me walk you through it. I think you hit it right on the head. But as I mentioned in my remarks, because of the contractual lags, we expect that earnings growth beyond Q3 and into Q4 at these spot levels.

謝謝，卡佳。好問題。讓我帶你了解一下。我認為你說得非常正確。但正如我在評論中提到的那樣，由於合約滯後，我們預計獲利成長將在第三季之後和第四季達到現貨水準。

So today, spot LME is sitting just above $2,600 a tonne. And if you compare that to our Q3 realized expectation of about $2,500, that's about $100 per tonne increase. So if we do realize that LME for a full quarter, as you probably already did in the sensitivities, that's about -- it's $46 million for a year for $100 per tonne change or about $11 million, $12 million per quarter. That's just for LME.

因此，今天 LME 現貨價格略高於每噸 2,600 美元。如果將其與我們第三季度實現的約 2,500 美元的預期價格進行比較，則每噸價格上漲了約 100 美元。因此，如果我們確實意識到 LME 整個季度的損失，正如您可能已經在敏感性分析中意識到的那樣，那麼大約是 - 每年每噸 100 美元的變化帶來 4600 萬美元的損失，或者每個季度大約 1100 萬美元、1200 萬美元。這僅適用於 LME。

We also see spot Midwest premium of $0.72 today. That's nearly $1,600 per tonne. And again, if you compare that against our Q3 realized expectation today of $1,450 per tonne, that's approximately $150 per tonne better.

我們還看到今天中西部現貨溢價為 0.72 美元。這相當於每噸近1,600美元。再說一次，如果將其與我們今天第三季度實現的每噸 1,450 美元的預期價格進行比較，那就大約高出了每噸 150 美元。

So again, looking at the sensitivities, if you took that and compare it against the realized price for a full quarter spot against realized, you should expect to see another $15 million uplift on Midwest premium into Q4 from the Q3 levels. So together, about $12 million of LME and another $15 million of Midwest premium. So I think that takes you right about into the range that you were quoting.

因此，再次看一下敏感度，如果您將其與整個季度的實現價格進行比較，您應該預計中西部地區的溢價將在第四季度從第三季度的水平再增加 1500 萬美元。因此，總計約有 1,200 萬美元的 LME 溢價和另外 1,500 萬美元的中西部溢價。所以我認為這就正好進入了您所引用的範圍。

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

尼克吉爾斯 (Nick Giles)，B. Riley 證券。

With all that's going on in the US, I didn't want to leave your Iceland footprint out here. Can you just speak to progress at Grundartangi on the casthouse? I mean, how have operations been going there? And then can you also speak to just kind of value-added premiums in Europe? What are your expectations today? Anything would be helpful there.

鑑於美國發生的一切，我不想在這裡留下你的冰島足跡。您能談談 Grundartangi 鑄造廠的進展嗎？我的意思是，那裡的運作進展如何？那麼，您能談談歐洲的增值溢價嗎？您今天有什麼期望？任何事情都會有幫助。

Sure, Nick. Yeah, casthouse project continues to go well. It's a great brand-new casthouse. A lot of people at the US assets are gelled with that brand-new shining casthouse that we have in Iceland.

當然，尼克。是的，鑄造廠專案進展順利。這是一間很棒的全新演員攝影棚。美國資產中的許多人都與我們在冰島的嶄新閃亮的演員陣容融為一體。

And as you might imagine, as you start-up a new casthouse, there is a ramp-up period where you're both ramping up production and also sort of dialing in your processes and getting a lot of new people up to speed on what really is a skilled workforce to cast billets.

正如您可能想像的那樣，當您啟動一個新的鑄造廠時，會有一個加速期，在此期間您既要提高產量，也要調整流程，並讓許多新人快速掌握鑄造鋼坯的真正熟練勞動力。

So that process continues to go well. They continue to make progress, and we're really excited to kind of go into the 2026 billet season really running on all cylinders. So lots of progress there, good things to come. And the market has continued to accept that new billet with open arms. People are liking what they're seeing. And I think the quality has been really good. So all good on that front.

所以這個過程繼續順利進行。他們不斷取得進步，我們非常高興能夠全力以赴地迎接 2026 年鋼坯賽季。因此，那裡取得了很大進展，好事即將到來。市場繼續張開雙臂接受這種新鋼坯。人們喜歡他們所看到的東西。我認為品質確實很好。從這方面來看一切都很好。

More generally, on the market side, Europe has been weaker than what we've seen in the US, of course, and that's been persisting for a number of quarters now. We have more recently seen billet premiums firming a bit as the European duty paid premium has gone down on commodity-grade aluminum, the billet premiums have actually expanded a bit to fill in the gap. So that's been a positive development there. Obviously, good for us with the additional volumes we'll be bringing in next year.

更普遍的是，從市場方面來看，歐洲的表現當然比美國弱，而且這種情況已經持續了好幾季了。最近，我們看到方坯溢價略有走強，因為歐洲商品級鋁的關稅溢價已經下降，方坯溢價實際上有所擴大以填補缺口。所以這是一個積極的發展。顯然，對我們來說，明年的銷售增加是件好事。

So all is looking pretty good there. It is summer in Europe today. So we'll wait for summer to end and come out ready to go into the fall season and into 2026.

一切看起來都很好。如今歐洲正值夏季。因此，我們將等待夏天結束，準備進入秋季和 2026 年。

Great to hear. Maybe just one more on Jamalco. Can you remind us of what should we be penciling in for CapEx there in 2026 as it relates to incremental production?

很高興聽到這個消息。也許還有一篇關於 Jamalco 的文章。您能否提醒我們，在增量生產方面，我們應該在 2026 年為資本支出規劃多少？

Yeah, Nick, it's Pete again. We do break out sustaining and investment capital in our appendix for the whole business. But I can just kind of give you a sense of what sustaining and investment CapEx we expect for Jamalco in '26. It's basically for our 55% interest, about $10 million to $15 million in next year for sustaining, as well as the investment.

是的，尼克，又是皮特。我們確實在附錄中列出了整個業務的維持資本和投資資本。但我只能讓您大致了解我們對 Jamalco 在 26 年的維持和投資資本支出的預期。這基本上是為了我們的 55% 的權益，明年大約需要 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元來維持，以及投資。

So as Jesse said earlier, we are continuing our investment program at Jamalco, mainly right now, it's the steam turbine generator, but we have identified some other projects to get the business back to its nameplate capacity and get it back to the second quartile of the cost curve.

正如傑西之前所說，我們正在繼續對 Jamalco 的投資計劃，目前主要是蒸汽渦輪發電機，但我們已經確定了一些其他項目，以使業務恢復到其額定容量並使其回到成本曲線的第二個四分位數。

But for right now, and we'll update this again on the Q4 call like we always do, but I would expect to have that repeat in '26. So again, $10 million to $15 million in sustaining as well as $10 million to $15 million in investment at Jamalco next year.

但就目前而言，我們將像往常一樣在第四季度電話會議上再次更新這一點，但我預計這種情況會在 26 年重複出現。因此，明年 Jamalco 的維持費用將達到 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元，投資額也將達到 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。

There are currently no questions registered. So at this time, I'll pass the call back over to our management team for any further remarks.

目前沒有登記任何問題。因此，此時，我會將電話轉回給我們的管理團隊，以徵求進一步的意見。

Okay. Thank you, and thanks to everyone for joining, and we'll talk to you guys again on the Q3 call. Thanks a lot.

好的。謝謝大家，感謝大家的加入，我們將在第三季電話會議上再次與你們交談。多謝。