Century Aluminum Co (CENX) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's Century Aluminum Company first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Makai, and I'll be the moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

    午安.感謝您參加今天的世紀鋁業公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Makai,我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。(操作員指示)

  • At this time, I would like to pass the call over to our host, Ryan Crawford, Investor Relations.

    現在,我想將電話轉給我們的主持人、投資者關係部門的 Ryan Crawford。

  • Ryan, you may proceed.

    瑞安,你可以繼續了。

  • Ryan Crawford - Financial Planning & Analysis and Investor Relations Manager

    Ryan Crawford - Financial Planning & Analysis and Investor Relations Manager

  • Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer. After our prepared comments, we will take your questions.

    謝謝您,接線生。大家下午好,歡迎參加電話會議。今天和我一起出席的還有世紀總裁兼執行長傑西·加里 (Jesse Gary);以及執行副總裁、財務長兼財務主管 Peter Trpkovski。在準備好評論後,我們將回答您的問題。

  • As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD.

    提醒一下,今天的簡報可以在我們的網站 www.centuryaluminum.com 上找到。我們使用我們的網站作為揭露公司重大資訊和遵守公平揭露規則的一種手段。

  • Turning to Slide 1. Please take a moment to review the cautionary statements shown here with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures contained in today's discussion.

    翻到幻燈片 1。請花一點時間閱讀此處針對今天討論中的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標的警告聲明。

  • And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

    說完這些,我就把電話交給傑西。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ryan and thanks to everyone for joining. Just before we dive into the results today, I'd like to congratulate Peter Trpkovski on his recent promotion to CFO. Many of you have gotten to know Peter over his last 12 years at Century. He has extensive knowledge of the company's operations and a proven track record of success in every area that he's led. I have every confidence that his expertise and leadership will continue to drive Century's long-term success as we move forward. Congrats Peter.

    謝謝,Ryan,也謝謝大家的加入。在我們深入討論今天的結果之前,我想先祝賀 Peter Trpkovski 最近晉升為財務長。你們中的許多人已經在彼得任職世紀公司的 12 年時間裡認識了他。他對公司的運作有著廣泛的了解,並且在他領導的每個領域都有成功的記錄。我完全相信,他的專業知識和領導能力將繼續推動世紀的長期成功。恭喜彼得。

  • Okay, I'll start today by reviewing our first quarter results and the strong market conditions we've had so far in 2025. I'll then walk through our operational performance for the quarter and some initiatives we have planned for Q2. Peter will then take you through the details of the Q1 results and our second quarter outlook before we turn the call over for questions.

    好的,今天我將首先回顧我們的第一季業績以及 2025 年迄今為止強勁的市場狀況。然後,我將介紹本季的營運業績以及我們為第二季所規劃的一些舉措。在我們開始提問之前,Peter 將向您介紹第一季業績的詳細資訊以及我們第二季的展望。

  • Century's safety performance got off to a good start in Q1 with improved outcomes at each location versus the last year. This is rewarding to see as we continue to invest substantial time and effort towards improving the safety culture at each of our locations. Safety is our number one priority and is fundamental to our high-performance culture.

    世紀石油的安全表現在第一季取得了良好的開端,與去年相比,每個地點的安全表現都有所改善。看到這一點我們感到非常欣慰,因為我們將繼續投入大量時間和精力來改善每個地點的安全文化。安全是我們的首要任務,也是我們高績效文化的基礎。

  • Turning to financial results. Century generated $78 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, driving a reduction in net debt of $55 million and increasing liquidity by $94 million. Peter will walk you through the details here, but we are really pleased with the way the business performed and the excellent job the team did to bring working capital levels down in the quarter.

    談到財務結果。世紀集團第一季的調整後 EBITDA 為 7,800 萬美元,推動淨債務減少 5,500 萬美元,流動性增加 9,400 萬美元。彼得將在這裡向您介紹詳細信息,但我們對業務表現以及團隊在本季度降低營運資本水平所做的出色工作感到非常滿意。

  • Overall, continued strong LME and rising Midwest premium offset higher energy prices in the first quarter. Realized LME prices averaged $2,553 in Q1, while realized Midwest and European premiums averaged $602 and $336 in the quarter, respectively.

    總體而言,倫敦金屬交易所持續強勁的走勢和中西部地區溢價的上漲抵消了第一季能源價格的上漲。第一季 LME 實現價格平均為 2,553 美元,而中西部和歐洲實現溢價平均分別為 602 美元和 336 美元。

  • Regional premiums have seen the most movement so far in Q2 with spot Midwest premium today sitting at close to $850 a ton following the implementation of the Section 232 tariffs and spot EDPP falling to roughly $200 a ton. I'll provide some more color on the Section 232 and other tariffs to conclude the call.

    到目前為止,區域溢價在第二季度出現了最大的波動,在第 232 條關稅實施後,現貨中西部溢價目前接近每噸 850 美元,現貨 EDPP 則跌至每噸約 200 美元。在通話結束時,我將提供更多有關第 232 條和其他關稅的詳細資訊。

  • Turning to Slide 4, cold winter temperatures led to higher realized market energy prices at Sebree in the first quarter. Prices have now returned to normalized levels in Q2.

    翻到投影片 4,寒冷的冬季氣溫導致第一季塞布里實際市場能源價格上漲。目前,價格已於第二季恢復至正常水準。

  • The polar vortex also led to unusually cold temperatures in South Carolina in Q1, which combined with generation outages led Santee Cooper to declare an emergency economic curtailment across its system, which affected Mt. Holly.

    極地渦旋也導致南卡羅來納州第一季氣溫異常寒冷,再加上發電中斷,桑蒂庫柏電力公司宣布全系統實施緊急經濟削減,這也對芒特霍利造成了影響。

  • While this did not result in an interruption in power supply, it did contractually allow Santee to pass along higher emergency power rates to Mt. Holly over several days. This was an extreme event, which we do not expect will occur in the future.

    雖然這並沒有導致電力供應中斷,但根據合同,桑蒂可以在幾天內將更高的緊急電價轉嫁給霍利山。這是一個極端事件,我們預計未來不會再發生。

  • Turning to Page 5, as you can see in the top left graph, we expect constraints on new global supply to drive a global market deficit in 2025 of approximately 400,000 tons as China reaches its 45-million-ton production cap. Global inventories have reached new lows of only 46 days so far in Q2. These low inventory levels, combined with continued demand growth should be supportive of higher aluminum prices as we move forward in the year.

    翻到第 5 頁,正如您在左上角的圖表中所看到的,我們預計,隨著中國達到 4500 萬噸的生產上限,全球新供應的限制將導致 2025 年全球市場出現約 40 萬噸的缺口。第二季迄今為止,全球庫存已達到僅 46 天的新低點。隨著今年的到來,這些較低的庫存水準加上持續的需求成長應該會支撐鋁價上漲。

  • We have seen increasing demand in the US following the effectiveness of the revised Section 232 tariffs on aluminum in March, especially for domestically produced billets. Extrusion shipments were up 6.7% year-over-year in March as downstream customers look to shift supply chains back to the US billet orders have remained strong so far into Q2. Turning to alumina, global supplies recovered from the extreme tightness we saw at year-end with market prices returning to normalized levels over the quarter. Spot API prices are approximately $350 today.

    自 3 月修訂後的 232 條款鋁關稅生效以來,我們看到美國的需求不斷增加,尤其是對國產鋁坯的需求。由於下游客戶希望將供應鏈轉移回美國,3 月擠壓材出貨量年增 6.7%,而進入第二季以來,鋼坯訂單一直保持強勁。談到氧化鋁,全球供應已從年底的極度緊張狀態中恢復,市場價格在本季度恢復到正常水平。目前現貨 API 價格約為 350 美元。

  • Turning to Page 6. You can see that coke, pitch, and caustic soda prices rose in the first quarter, but remain constructive at current price levels. HFO prices into Jamalco have fallen substantially recently in line with global oil prices, which should begin to roll through our results on a one-month lag basis and help to offset some of the increased caustic soda prices at the refinery.

    翻到第 6 頁。可以看到,焦炭、瀝青、燒鹼價格在第一季都有所上漲,但在目前的價格水平上仍然保持上漲勢頭。近期,賈馬爾科的重質燃油價格隨全球油價大幅下跌,這將對我們的業績產生一個月的滯後影響,並有助於抵消煉油廠部分燒鹼價格的上漲。

  • Turning to operations. Our assets continue to deliver strong operating results in Q1. In Iceland, Grundartangi returned to full production levels in March following the end of the previously announced power curtailments in Iceland. The team did an excellent job bringing the additional pots back online safely. We are also very happy to announce that we reached an extension agreement with one of the largest power providers to the Grundartangi smelter called ON Power to continue to supply the plant into 2032.

    轉向營運。我們的資產在第一季持續帶來強勁的經營業績。在冰島,隨著先前宣布的限電措施結束,Grundartangi 電廠於 3 月恢復了滿載生產水準。團隊出色地完成了工作,將額外的鍋子安全地重新投入使用。我們也非常高興地宣布,我們與 Grundartangi 冶煉廠最大的電力供應商之一 ON Power 達成了延期協議,將繼續為該工廠供電至 2032 年。

  • It was a pleasure to work with Andy Haraldton and his team to reach this good outcome, and we look forward to continuing working with on for years to come. Billet orders out of Grundartangi were a bit lower than anticipated in Q1 as demand weakness in the European market continued.

    我們很高興與 Andy Haraldton 和他的團隊合作並取得這一良好成果,我們期待在未來幾年繼續合作。由於歐洲市場需求持續疲軟,Grundartangi 第一季的方坯訂單略低於預期。

  • We are seeing a small uptick in European billet orders as we enter Q2, but we will need to see this continue before we consider the trend. Please just remember that the European billet market works a bit differently than the US, with the European market generally operating on a lagged spot price basis versus the annual contracts we are used to in the US. So, Grundartangi will be well-positioned to benefit from higher spot prices when European demand recovers.

    進入第二季度,我們看到歐洲鋼坯訂單略有上升,但我們需要看到這種趨勢持續下去,然後我們才能考慮這一趨勢。請記住,歐洲方坯市場與美國略有不同,歐洲市場通常以滯後的現貨價格運作,而不是我們在美國習慣的年度合約。因此,當歐洲需求復甦時,Grundartangi 將處於有利地位,從更高的現貨價格中獲益。

  • As discussed on the Q4 call, Mt. Holly did suffer some minor operational instability in Q4 as an excursion on the carbon side of the business increased operating costs and drove slightly lower production across the plant. Plant management has done a good job bringing production back to normalized levels, but it's taken a bit longer to bring the operational efficiencies back to where they should be. So, this will remain a focus item as we progress through Q2.

    正如在第四季度電話會議上所討論的那樣,由於碳業務方面的偏差增加了運營成本,並導致整個工廠的產量略有下降,Mt. Holly 在第四季度確實遭遇了一些輕微的運營不穩定。工廠管理層在使生產恢復到正常水平方面做得很好,但要使運營效率恢復到應有的水平還需要更長的時間。因此,隨著我們進入第二季度,這仍將是我們關注的焦點。

  • At Jamalco, we are focused on executing the major capital improvement program we have previously discussed to return the refinery to its nameplate capacity levels of close to 1.4 million tons.

    在 Jamalco,我們專注於執行先前討論過的重大資本改善計劃,以使煉油廠恢復到接近 140 萬噸的額定產能水準。

  • The major focus item for this year is the installation of a new steam power generation turbine at the plant, which will enable Jamalco to be fully self-sufficient in its power generation and lower its cost structure by reducing expensive third-party power purchases. We remain on track to complete this project by year-end and to begin realizing the cost savings from the project in Q1 2026.

    今年的重點項目是在該工廠安裝一台新的蒸汽發電渦輪機,這將使 Jamalco 能夠完全自給自足地發電,並透過減少昂貴的第三方電力購買來降低成本結構。我們預計在年底前完成該項目,並在 2026 年第一季開始實現項目帶來的成本節約。

  • Our evaluation process at Hawesville remains ongoing with due diligence continuing among a group of interested parties. We will keep you updated on progress here as we move through the year and expect to have a more fulsome update on our Q2 call.

    我們在霍斯維爾的評估過程仍在進行中,相關利害關係人群體將繼續進行盡職調查。我們將在今年內向您通報進度,並期望在第二季電話會議上獲得更全面的更新。

  • Sebree had another excellent quarter in Q1 with quarter-over-quarter improvements across most operating KPIs, higher volume and lower operating costs. The continued strong performance at Sebree has given us the opportunity to bring forward some major maintenance in the carbon plant that we had originally planned for next year.

    Sebree 在第一季又取得了出色的成績,大多數營運 KPI 均比上一季度有所改善,銷量有所增加,營運成本也有所降低。Sebree 持續強勁的表現使我們有機會提前進行原計劃於明年進行的碳工廠的一些重大維護。

  • During the quarter, we will take the green section of the carbon plant out of service and refurbish the anode press and ancillary equipment. By taking the outage now, it will reduce risk and improve reliability and operational performance of the carbon plant before we head into the hot summer months.

    在本季度,我們將停止碳素廠的綠色部分並翻新陽極壓機和輔助設備。現在停電將降低風險,並在炎熱的夏季到來之前提高碳工廠的可靠性和運作性能。

  • The outage will drive a one-time increase in maintenance spend in the second quarter of about $10 million. This will obviously not repeat in Q3 or beyond, and we will reap the benefits of increased reliability and operational security of this key area of the plant over the back half of 2025 and beyond.

    此次停電將導致第二季的維護支出一次性增加約 1,000 萬美元。顯然,這種情況不會在第三季或以後重演,我們將在 2025 年下半年及以後獲得工廠這一關鍵區域可靠性和運行安全性提高的好處。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Peter to walk through the financials.

    說完這些,我會把問題交給彼得來介紹財務狀況。

  • Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Jesse. It's great to be with all of you again and I'm really excited to be taking on this expanded role. I'll start by walking you through our financial performance for the first quarter and end with providing our outlook for the second quarter.

    謝謝你,傑西。很高興能再次與大家相聚,我非常高興能夠擔任這重要的角色。我將首先向您介紹我們第一季的財務業績,最後提供我們對第二季的展望。

  • Century delivered solid results in Q1 with $78 million in adjusted EBITDA. This is down modestly from Q4, primarily due to polar vortex-linked weather conditions, impact on energy prices and one-time alumina costs and partially offset by higher all-in metal prices. The core fundamentals of our business remain strong as we move into the second quarter.

    世紀集團第一季業績穩健,調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 達 7,800 萬美元。與第四季度相比略有下降,主要原因是極地渦旋相關的天氣狀況、對能源價格的影響以及一次性氧化鋁成本,並被全金屬價格上漲部分抵消。進入第二季度,我們業務的核心基本面依然強勁。

  • Let's turn to Slide 7, and review our Q1 performance. On a consolidated basis, first quarter shipments rose slightly, nearing 169,000 tons, an increase of 1% sequentially as all smelters were operating at their targeted utilization levels by quarter end.

    讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片,回顧一下我們第一季的表現。從綜合來看,第一季出貨量略有增加,接近 169,000 噸,季增 1%,因為所有冶煉廠在季末都達到了目標利用率水準。

  • As Jesse mentioned, Iceland power curtailments were fully lifted in March, allowing us to ramp up our Grundartangi smelter back to full production. At Jamalco, we had a strong start to the year, producing our highest quarterly volume in Q1 since we acquired the refinery in 2023.

    正如傑西所提到的,冰島的限電措施已於 3 月全面取消,這使我們能夠將 Grundartangi 冶煉廠恢復滿載生產。在 Jamalco,我們今年開局強勁,第一季的產量創下了自 2023 年收購煉油廠以來的最高水準。

  • Going forward, we remain focused on achieving lower cost of production as we continue to invest in our capital improvement program there, which I'll talk about in a few minutes.

    展望未來,我們將繼續專注於降低生產成本,同時繼續投資我們的資本改善計劃,我將在幾分鐘後討論這個問題。

  • Net sales for the quarter were $634 million, a $3 million increase due to higher metal volume and all-in metal pricing, partially offset by lower third-party alumina sales. For the quarter, we reported net income of $30 million or $0.29 per share.

    本季淨銷售額為 6.34 億美元,由於金屬銷量增加和全金屬定價增加,增加了 300 萬美元,但第三方氧化鋁銷售額下降部分抵消了這一增長。本季度,我們報告淨收入為 3,000 萬美元,即每股 0.29 美元。

  • Our adjusted net income was $37 million or $0.36 per share, including an adjustment of approximately $4 million or $0.04 per share related to the emergency energy charges at Mt. Holly that Jesse previously discussed. Adjusted EBITDA was $78 million for the quarter.

    我們的調整後淨收入為 3700 萬美元或每股 0.36 美元,其中包括與 Jesse 之前討論過的 Mt. Holly 緊急能源費用相關的約 400 萬美元或每股 0.04 美元的調整。本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 7,800 萬美元。

  • As we've discussed, the Section 232 aluminum tariffs were increased to 25% with no country or product exemptions on March 12. The Midwest premium doubled soon after from approximately $0.20 pre-announcement to nearly $0.40 post-announcement.

    正如我們所討論的,第 232 條鋁關稅於 3 月 12 日提高至 25%,且不受任何國家或產品豁免。中西部溢價很快就翻了一番,從公告前的約 0.20 美元上漲至公告後的近 0.40 美元。

  • Due to timing of the announcement, this partially benefited our first quarter result by $16 million. The full extent of the Midwest premium uplift and any additional upside will be realized in Q2 as pricing reflects a one-month contractual lag.

    由於公告發布的時間,這部分使我們第一季的業績受益 1,600 萬美元。由於定價反映了一個月的合約滯後,中西部地區保費上漲的全部幅度和任何額外的上漲將在第二季度實現。

  • Moving on. We made meaningful progress to improve our balance sheet during the quarter. Liquidity increased to $339 million, up nearly $100 million quarter-over-quarter, and our cash balance stood at $45 million.

    繼續。本季我們在改善資產負債表方面取得了重大進展。流動性增加至 3.39 億美元,比上一季增加近 1 億美元,現金餘額為 4,500 萬美元。

  • Net debt declined to $442 million, a reduction of $55 million from the fourth quarter, positioning us well for continued capital discipline. The reduction in net debt and increased cash balances were funded by strong operating performance along with working capital improvements. Overall, our Q1 results continue to reflect operational discipline and steady commercial performance.

    淨債務下降至 4.42 億美元,較第四季減少 5,500 萬美元,這為我們繼續嚴格資本紀律做好了準備。淨債務的減少和現金餘額的增加得益於強勁的經營業績和營運資本的改善。總體而言,我們的第一季業績繼續體現出良好的營運紀律和穩定的商業表現。

  • Now, let's turn to Page 8, and I'll provide a breakdown of adjusted EBITDA results from Q4 to Q1. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter decreased $3 million to $78 million. Realized LME of $2,553 per ton was up $91 per ton versus the prior quarter, while realized US. Midwest premium of $602 per ton was up $165 per ton and then realized European delivery premium remained flat at $336 per ton.

    現在,讓我們翻到第 8 頁,我將提供從第四季度到第一季的調整後 EBITDA 結果的細目分類。第一季調整後 EBITDA 減少 300 萬美元至 7,800 萬美元。LME 實現價格為每噸 2,553 美元,較上一季上漲每噸 91 美元,而美國實現價格為每噸 2,553 美元。中西部地區溢價為每噸 602 美元,上漲了每噸 165 美元,而歐洲交貨溢價則保持穩定在每噸 336 美元。

  • Together, higher metal prices and regional premiums contributed an incremental $36 million compared with the prior quarter. Energy costs were higher, driven by polar vortex linked cold temperatures that increased market prices for energy at our US operations and impacted adjusted EBITDA by $18 million.

    金屬價格上漲和地區溢價合計貢獻了與上一季相比 3,600 萬美元的增量收入。受極地渦旋引發的低溫影響,能源成本上升,導致我們美國業務的能源市場價格上漲,調整後的 EBITDA 減少了 1,800 萬美元。

  • Alumina and our other raw materials were a $27 million headwind quarter-over-quarter, in line with our previously provided outlook. As discussed on our last call, a force majeure event at our alumina supplier led to a one-time financial benefit in Q4 that did not repeat in Q1.

    氧化鋁和我們的其他原料的環比虧損為 2700 萬美元,與我們先前提供的預測一致。正如我們上次電話會議所討論的那樣,我們的氧化鋁供應商發生的不可抗力事件導致第四季度獲得了一次性財務收益,而第一季並未再次出現這種情況。

  • As a result of the FM event, we procured additional alumina spot purchases at higher prices to mitigate shortfalls from the supplier. The impact of the higher price purchases flow through our results in Q1 due to our lagged FIFO accounting method. We also recognized $4 million in lower operating costs and a $2 million benefit from volume and mix.

    由於 FM 事件的影響,我們以更高的價格購買了額外的氧化鋁現貨,以彌補供應商的短缺。由於我們的滯後先進先出會計方法,較高價格的採購對我們第一季的業績產生了影響。我們還實現了 400 萬美元的營運成本降低和 200 萬美元的產量和產品組合效益。

  • Now, let's turn to Slide 9, for a look at cash flow. We began the quarter with $33 million in cash and $78 million of adjusted EBITDA provided a strong base. We also made substantial progress optimizing working capital, which contributed an additional $23 million in cash. We strategically deployed these cash inflows across several priorities. We repaid $45 million in short-term debt as we remain focused on deleveraging the balance sheet. We also funded $16 million of CapEx.

    現在,讓我們翻到幻燈片 9,看看現金流。本季開始時,我們擁有 3,300 萬美元的現金,而 7,800 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 為我們提供了強勁的基礎。我們也在優化營運資金方面取得了實質進展,額外貢獻了 2,300 萬美元的現金。我們對幾個優先事項策略性地部署了這些現金流入。我們償還了 4500 萬美元的短期債務,因為我們仍然專注於降低資產負債表的槓桿率。我們也資助了 1600 萬美元的資本支出。

  • This was anticipated and primarily focused on the Jamalco facility where we aim to bring a new steam turbine generator online by year-end to increase power generation and lower production costs. We also paid $7 million in normal interest and taxes in the quarter. We continue to accrue 45x production tax credits.

    這是預料之中的,主要集中在 Jamalco 工廠,我們的目標是在年底前將一台新的蒸汽渦輪發電機投入使用,以增加發電量並降低生產成本。本季我們也支付了 700 萬美元的正常利息和稅金。我們繼續累積45倍的生產稅抵免。

  • As of March 31, we have a receivable of $173 million related to full year 2023, 2024, and the first quarter of 2025. We now expect to receive the first cash payment of fiscal year 2023 credit during Q2. We ended Q1 with $45 million in cash and strong liquidity in place to support our strategy going forward.

    截至 3 月 31 日,我們與 2023 年全年、2024 年和 2025 年第一季相關的應收帳款為 1.73 億美元。我們現在預計將在第二季收到 2023 財年信貸的第一筆現金支付。我們在第一季結束時擁有 4500 萬美元的現金和強大的流動性,以支持我們未來的策略。

  • Turning to Slide 10. Let's look ahead to the next 90 days. At current realized prices, we expect Q2 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $80 million to $90 million. For Q2, the lagged LME of $2,513 per ton is expected to be down about $40 versus Q1 realized prices.

    翻到幻燈片 10。讓我們展望未來90天。以目前實現價格計算,我們預計第二季調整後的 EBITDA 在 8,000 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元之間。對於第二季度,預計 LME 滯後價格為每噸 2,513 美元,較第一季實現價格下跌約 40 美元。

  • The Q2 lagged US. Midwest premium reflects a full quarter of the new tariff level and is expected to be $866 per ton, up $265. The European delivery premium is expected to be $220 per ton or down about $115.

    第二部落後於美國。中西部地區保費反映了新關稅水準的整整四分之一,預計為每噸 866 美元,上漲 265 美元。預計歐洲交割溢價為每噸 220 美元,或下降約 115 美元。

  • Taken together, the lagged LME and delivery premium changes are expected to have a $10 million increase to Q2 adjusted EBITDA compared with Q1 levels. US energy prices have eased since the polar vortex late conditions in Q1 with US. Midwest Indiana hub prices already down approximately 15% compared with last quarter, and we expect this to continue.

    綜合起來,滯後的 LME 和交割溢價變化預計將導致第二季調整後的 EBITDA 較第一季水準增加 1000 萬美元。自從第一季末期美國極地渦旋狀況出現以來,美國能源價格已回落。印第安納州中西部樞紐的價格與上一季相比已經下降了約 15%,我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

  • Lower oil prices will also benefit the price of heavy fuel oil, a key input at our Jamalco refinery. At these prices, total energy tailwinds should contribute $10 million. Coke, pitch and caustic prices have all increased in recent months and are expected to result in a $5 million to $10 million headwind.

    油價下跌也將有利於重質燃料油的價格,重質燃料油是我們 Jamalco 煉油廠的關鍵原料。以這樣的價格,能源順風總收入應能貢獻 1,000 萬美元。近幾個月來,焦炭、瀝青和苛性鹼的價格均有所上漲,預計將造成 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元的逆差。

  • We expect a one-time increase to operating expenses of $10 million to $15 million split between normal planned summer labor increases and bringing forward the green mill outage at our Sebree, Kentucky facility that Jesse mentioned.

    我們預計營運費用將一次性增加 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元,分攤到正常計劃的夏季勞動力增加和提前停產(Jesse 提到的位於肯塔基州塞布里的工廠)兩部分。

  • Taking this maintenance outage now allows us to increase reliability at one of our best-performing assets over the past few years. Volume and mix should contribute a $5 million benefit.

    現在進行這次維護停機使我們能夠提高過去幾年來表現最好的資產之一的可靠性。產量和產品組合應能帶來 500 萬美元的收益。

  • Finally, we also include the estimated hedge and tax impacts that are recorded below the line to help model our business. We expect a $5 million headwind from realized hedge settlements and a similar amount from tax expense, both flowing through the Q2 P&L and impacting adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share.

    最後,我們還包括記錄在線下的估計對沖和稅收影響,以幫助模擬我們的業務。我們預計已實現的對沖結算將帶來 500 萬美元的不利影響,稅收支出也將帶來類似金額的不利影響,這兩項影響都將流入第二季度的損益表並影響調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股收益。

  • As a reminder, our appendix details the full hedge book and continues to show the vast majority of LME and regional premium volumes are exposed to market prices as our investors have requested.

    提醒一下,我們的附錄詳細介紹了完整的對沖帳簿,並繼續顯示絕大多數 LME 和區域溢價量都按照我們的投資者的要求暴露於市場價格。

  • We remain well-positioned to navigate near-term market dynamics and deliver long-term value for our shareholders, while executing on critical business priorities within our control.

    我們仍處於有利地位,可以應對短期市場動態並為股東創造長期價值,同時執行我們控制範圍內的關鍵業務重點。

  • With that, I'll hand the call back to Jesse to talk in more detail about tariffs.

    說完這些,我會把電話交還給傑西,讓他更詳細地討論關稅問題。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks Peter. Just before we move to questions, I'd like to thank President Trump again for the significant actions that he and his administration have taken to restore American manufacturing and stand up for American workers.

    謝謝彼得。在我們進入提問環節之前,我想再次感謝川普總統和他的政府為恢復美國製造業和維護美國工人權益所採取的重大行動。

  • The Section 232 tariffs have truly enabled a new future for the US aluminum industry. Following the implementation of the Section 232 tariffs, we have seen the Midwest premium rise and stabilize around $0.39.

    第232條款關稅確實為美國鋁業帶來了新的未來。在第 232 條關稅實施後,我們看到中西部地區溢價上漲並穩定在 0.39 美元左右。

  • There is some significant front-running of foreign imports ahead of the March 12, effective date that temporarily raised US inventory levels and has pressured the Midwest premium below $0.40, while those inventories are consumed. We continue to believe that the Midwest premium will rise to the $0.45 to $0.50 range as those inventories are reduced over the next couple of months.

    在 3 月 12 日生效之前,外國進口出現了大量搶先交易,這暫時提高了美國的庫存水平,並迫使中西部地區的溢價低於 0.40 美元,而這些庫存已被消耗。我們仍然相信,隨著未來幾個月庫存減少,中西部溢價將升至 0.45 美元至 0.50 美元的區間。

  • On April 2, President Trump took further actions to restore the US manufacturing base through implementation of the reciprocal tariffs. We have long prided ourselves on sourcing locally for each of our operations and at Sebree and Mt. Holly, we continue to source most of our key cost inputs from American suppliers.

    4月2日,川普總統採取進一步行動,透過實施互惠關稅來恢復美國製造業基礎。長期以來,我們一直為自己在塞布里和霍利山的每項業務中都進行本地採購而感到自豪,我們大部分關鍵成本投入都繼續從美國供應商處採購。

  • In response to the President's groundbreaking actions, we have now taken further steps to shorten and secure the remainder of our major supply chains consistent with the intent of the reciprocal tariff program. I'm proud to say that the team has done a fantastic job, and we do not expect any material cost increases as a result of the program.

    為了響應總統的開創性行動,我們現在已採取進一步措施,縮短和確保我們剩餘的主要供應鏈,符合互惠關稅計劃的意圖。我很自豪地說,團隊做得非常出色,我們預計該計劃不會導致任何材料成本增加。

  • As the largest producer of primary aluminum in the United States, Century is doing its part to build and secure the aluminum production that is so essential to US national security needs.

    作為美國最大的原鋁生產商,世紀鋁業公司正在盡自己的一份力量來建造和保障對美國國家安全至關重要的鋁生產。

  • When complete, our new smelter project will represent the first new smelter built in the US in 50 years and will double the size of the existing US industry, creating over 1,000 full-time direct jobs and over 5,500 construction jobs. We look forward to working with the Trump administration to make this industry-changing project a reality.

    我們的新冶煉廠項目竣工後將成為美國 50 年來建造的第一座新冶煉廠,並將使美國現有產業規模擴大一倍,創造 1,000 多個全職直接就業崗位和 5,500 多個建築就業機會。我們期待與川普政府合作,使這個改變產業的計畫成為現實。

  • We are ready for your questions and we'll now turn the call over to the operator.

    我們已經準備好回答您的問題,現在我們將把電話轉給接線員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We will now begin today's Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝。我們現在開始今天的問答環節。(操作員指示)

  • Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

    Katja Jancic,BMO 資本市場。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe starting on the second quarter guide. Just to confirm, the incremental OpEx costs of $10 million to $15 million, that is one time. So, in other words, in 3Q, that should reverse? Correct?

    你好,謝謝你回答我的問題。也許從第二季指南開始。只是為了確認一下,增量營運支出成本為 1000 萬美元至 1500 萬美元,這是一次性的。那麼,換句話說,在第三季度,情況應該會逆轉嗎?正確的?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's correct. That should be one-time in Q2.

    沒錯。這應該是第二季的一次性事件。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • And maybe just to clarify, I thought last quarter, some of the higher alumina costs were also one-time, which were expected to reverse. Is that not right? Because there's no benefits for alumina, I don't see it.

    也許只是為了澄清一下,我認為上個季度,一些較高的氧化鋁成本也是一次性的,預計會逆轉。這不對嗎?因為這對氧化鋁來說沒有任何好處,所以我看不出來。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, that's correct. It's correct that it's one-time. And the explanation is that given the significant volatility in the alumina pricing, it mostly relates to timing of vessels sold to third parties. So, we did sell a very high-priced vessel in Q1. And by the time we reached our vessel that we were going to sell into Q2, the price had fallen.

    是的,沒錯。一次性的,沒錯。解釋是,鑑於氧化鋁價格的大幅波動,這主要與向第三方出售船隻的時間有關。所以,我們確實在第一季賣出了一艘非常高價的船。當我們準備在第二季出售船隻時,價格已經下跌了。

  • So, most of that difference that you're seeing there relates to timing of vessels. We saw a little bit of cost pressure at Jamalco coming through in Q2 as well, and those really account for most of that $10 million there.

    因此,您看到的大部分差異與船隻的時間有關。我們發現 Jamalco 在第二季也出現了一些成本壓力,這確實佔了 1000 萬美元的大部分。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • And then maybe on the manufacturing credit receivable, I think you mentioned that some of it is going to be received in 2Q. Can you provide how much you're expecting to receive? And then how we should think of the remaining receivables when that cash should come through?

    然後也許關於製造業信貸應收款,我想您提到其中一些將在第二季收到。您能提供一下您預計收到多少錢嗎?那麼當現金到帳時,我們該如何考慮剩餘的應收帳款?

  • Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Hey Katja, its Peter. If you remember back on the past few calls, we provided an overall annual estimate of $70 million to $80 million as it relates to the 45x production tax credits, which are owed to us by the US government. So, now, as I said on the call, we expect to receive about $60 million of our FY 2023 amount in Q2.

    嘿,卡佳,我是彼得。如果您還記得過去的幾通通話,我們提供了每年總計 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元的估算,這涉及美國政府欠我們的 45 倍生產稅收抵免。因此,正如我在電話中所說,我們預計在第二季將收到 2023 財年約 6,000 萬美元的資金。

  • As you also may recall, at the end of last year, carbon costs weren't made eligible for the production tax credit until late last year. So, the remaining incremental $20 million for a total of $80 million is expected later this year or early next year.

    您可能還記得,直到去年年底,碳成本才有資格享受生產稅收抵免。因此,預計剩餘的增量 2000 萬美元(總計 8000 萬美元)將在今年稍後或明年年初到位。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • And then similar for the rest, what you're going to be receiving through this year, it's always going to come in the second quarter?

    那麼對於其他情況來說也類似,您今年將收到的款項總是會在第二季到達嗎?

  • Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • No, we typically file around the end of the first quarter into the beginning of the second quarter. And you could expect in normal reoccurring timeline that we'll get our proceeds from those three to six months thereafter.

    不,我們通常在第一季末至第二季初提交報告。您可以預期,按照正常重複的時間線,我們將在隨後的三到六個月內獲得收益。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So, what Peter is saying, Katja, you could potentially see that the 2024 amounts coming through in late 2025 or early 2026.

    因此,彼得 (Peter) 所說的,卡佳 (Katja),您可能會看到 2024 年的金額在 2025 年末或 2026 年初實現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

    尼克吉爾斯 (Nick Giles),B. Riley 證券。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Thank you, operator. Good afternoon everyone. First, Peter, I wanted to say congratulations on stepping in on the new role that's well-deserved.

    謝謝您,接線生。大家下午好。首先,彼得,我要祝賀你擔任這個當之無愧的新職務。

  • My first question, great to see your net debt move down and your liquidity has moved above your target range. So, I wanted to confirm whether reducing debt remains the top use of excess cash? And you've touched on some of this already, but are there any other cash flow considerations we should keep in mind as we try to model out the balance of the year?

    我的第一個問題,很高興看到您的淨債務下降並且流動性已經超出了您的目標範圍。因此,我想確認減少債務是否仍是過剩現金的主要用途?您已經談到了其中的一些內容,但是在我們嘗試模擬年度餘額時,是否還應該考慮其他現金流因素?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey Nick, no, you pretty much got it. In the near term, we'll continue to prioritize paying down those debt levels, while also continuing on the existing CapEx programs that we've already talked to you about. So, priority as those additional cash amounts come in, will remain bringing down debt levels.

    嘿,尼克,不,你基本上明白了。短期內,我們將繼續優先償還這些債務,同時繼續我們已經與您討論過的現有資本支出計劃。因此,隨著這些額外現金的到位,首要任務仍然是降低債務水準。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Thanks for that. And my next one was you mentioned some cost pressures at Jamalco in 1Q. And I wanted to use that as an opportunity to get an update on the operations there. I mean, do you feel that there are further cost improvements to be made that might not be reflected in your guidance today? And then can you just remind us of any additional capacity and ultimately capital requirements?

    謝謝。我的下一個問題是,您提到了 Jamalco 在第一季面臨的一些成本壓力。我想利用這個機會來了解那裡的行動最新情況。我的意思是,您是否認為需要進一步改進成本,而這些改進可能不會反映在您今天的指導中?然後您能否提醒我們任何額外的產能和最終的資本要求?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, absolutely, Nick. Great question. Yes, it was relatively minor in Q1 on the cost pressure side. Asset continues to operate well. And as we mentioned, it actually hit its highest quarterly volume levels in Q1 since we've owned the asset. So, the team is doing a good job driving improvements, just a little noise on the cost side in Q1 that should hopefully continue to reduce throughout the year.

    是的,絕對是,尼克。好問題。是的,第一季的成本壓力相對較小。資產持續運作良好。正如我們所提到的,自從我們擁有該資產以來,它在第一季實際上達到了最高的季度交易量水準。因此,團隊在推動改進方面做得很好,只是第一季成本方面出現了一些小問題,希望全年能夠繼續減少。

  • Over the long-term, we continue to believe we'll be able to take that asset into the second quartile of the cost curve. And to do that, we need to execute on our CapEx program there, which both Peter and I talked about, the next step being the introduction of the steam generation turbine, which hopefully will be done by the end of the year. And you'll start to see the benefits of that immediately because we'll reduce our third-party power purchases, hopefully starting in Q1 of 2026.

    從長遠來看,我們仍然相信我們能夠將該資產帶入成本曲線的第二個四分位數。為了做到這一點,我們需要在那裡執行我們的資本支出計劃,彼得和我都談到了這一點,下一步是引入蒸汽渦輪機,希望在今年年底前完成。您將立即看到這樣做的好處,因為我們將減少第三方電力購買,希望從 2026 年第一季開始。

  • So, lots of good news to come in the future at Jamalco. We continue to think that's going to be a really good asset for us, and it's just a matter of time and executing on our CapEx programs to get where we want to be.

    因此,Jamalco 未來將會有很多好消息。我們仍然認為這對我們來說將是一筆非常好的資產,而實現我們的目標只是時間問題,以及執行我們的資本支出計畫的問題。

  • Then to your last question, which is on the volume side, it's operating near that 1.2 million ton level that we've been targeting today. And with this CapEx program over the next couple of years, we continue to believe we'll creep it up towards its nameplate capacity of 1.4 million tons.

    然後回答您的最後一個問題,就交易量而言,目前交易量接近我們今天設定的 120 萬噸目標水準。透過未來幾年的資本支出計劃,我們仍然相信我們將逐步實現其額定產能 140 萬噸。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Jesse, I really appreciate you addressing all those questions. I know there were a few in there. Just to clarify, have you quantified the benefit on the cost side of the turbines later this year?

    傑西,我非常感謝你回答所有這些問題。我知道那裡有幾個。只是為了澄清一下,您是否量化了今年稍後渦輪機成本的收益?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We haven't. And as we get that done and as we move into 2026 and begin to talk about the 2026 outlook, we'll begin to give you a little bit more color around that.

    我們沒有。當我們完成這項工作並進入 2026 年並開始談論 2026 年的展望時,我們將開始為您提供更多有關這方面的資訊。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Okay, all right. Guys, keep up the good work and I'll jump back in the queue for now. Thanks.

    好的,好的。夥計們,繼續努力,我現在就重新回到隊列中。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.

    約翰·圖馬佐斯(John Tumazos),非常獨立的研究。

  • John Tumazos - Analyst

    John Tumazos - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. 46 of the last 49 weeks total exchange inventories have fallen. Clearly, the LME price dipping to $1.07 per pound anticipates a demand fall with the tariffs and trade war. When do you expect an inflection point where lower demand would cause exchange inventories to rise, suggesting the metal surplus that the LME price is anticipating?

    非常感謝。過去 49 週內,交易所庫存總量有 46 週出現下降。顯然,倫敦金屬交易所價格跌至每磅 1.07 美元預示著關稅和貿易戰將導致需求下降。您預計何時會出現一個拐點,即需求下降將導致交易所庫存上升,從而暗示倫敦金屬交易所價格預期會出現金屬過剩?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks John. Great question. Obviously, there's a lot of speculation out there. As I said in my prepared remarks, we actually haven't seen any of that yet to date. We've actually seen relatively strong demand, especially in the US as a lot of our customers have been nearshoring their supply chains. And so that's been especially strong on the billet demand side.

    謝謝約翰。好問題。顯然,外界存在著許多猜測。正如我在準備好的演講中所說,實際上我們迄今為止還沒有看到任何這樣的情況。我們實際上看到了相對強勁的需求,尤其是在美國,因為我們的許多客戶都將其供應鏈轉移到近岸。因此,鋼坯需求方面表現特別強勁。

  • Europe has been weak, but that was weak for a while over the past couple of years, we're actually starting to see a small uptick there, not enough to call it a trend, but enough to be a bit hopeful. So, we continue to think, at least on the premium side, things look pretty good, but we're cognizant of the volatility that's out there and are watching it closely.

    歐洲一直很弱,但在過去幾年裡有過一段時間的弱,我們實際上開始看到那裡出現小幅上漲,雖然還不足以稱之為趨勢,但足以讓人有點希望。因此,我們繼續認為,至少在溢價方面,情況看起來相當不錯,但我們意識到存在的波動性並且正在密切關注。

  • But net-net, as I said in my prepared remarks, we still see a small deficit this year. And we expect that deficit to grow going forward rather than increase as you positive.

    但正如我在準備好的發言中所說,總體而言,今年我們仍然面臨小幅赤字。我們預計赤字未來還會繼續成長,而不是像您所說的那樣增加。

  • John Tumazos - Analyst

    John Tumazos - Analyst

  • Over the last three years of the Ukraine war, there were three -- I don't know if the right word is incidents or episodes when very large deliveries of Rusal metal were made in the LME warehouses in Asia that replenished supply.

    在過去三年的烏克蘭戰爭中,發生了三次——我不知道用「事件」還是「插曲」來形容才是正確的,當時大量的俄鋁金屬被運往倫敦金屬交易所位於亞洲的倉庫,從而補充了供應。

  • Since April last year, the Rusal metal is not eligible if it's produced since April last year. How would you think mechanically the exchange inventories get replenished? Chinese deliveries, Rusal restarting production? Mechanically, where do you think, the new supply is going to arise?

    自去年 4 月起,Rusal 生產的金屬不再符合資格。您認為交易所庫存是如何機械地補充的?中國交貨,俄鋁重啟生產?從機械角度來說,您認為新的供應將會出現在哪裡?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's a complicated question, John, and one that depends on a lot of geopolitics, obviously. Just remember that the Russians are sanctioned by the US today and Europe has increased sanctions on the Russians recently that will continue to further bite as we move into 2026, the way they're structured. So, that's a difficult question on the Russian side, and we'll wait to see and watch how the sanction policy manifests itself.

    這是一個複雜的問題,約翰,而且顯然取決於許多地緣政治因素。請記住,俄羅斯今天受到美國的製裁,歐洲最近也加強了對俄羅斯的製裁力度,按照目前的製裁方式,到 2026 年,這種制裁將進一步加劇。所以,這對俄羅斯方面來說是一個難題,我們將拭​​目以待,觀察制裁政策將如何體現。

  • In terms of -- if I take your question at a broader level, where the marginal units are coming from, as I mentioned, we're actually projecting that we stay in deficit. So, we don't actually necessarily see those inventories replenishing. Quite the opposite, we potentially see global inventories decreasing over time. So, the way we see it, we continue to believe alumina prices will continue to rise in the near to medium future and certainly over the long run.

    就——如果我從更廣泛的層面來回答你的問題,邊際單位來自哪裡,正如我所提到的,我們實際上預計我們仍將處於赤字狀態。因此,我們實際上不一定會看到這些庫存得到補充。恰恰相反,我們可能會看到全球庫存隨著時間的推移而減少。因此,我們認為,氧化鋁價格在近期至中期將繼續上漲,並且從長遠來看肯定還會繼續上漲。

  • John Tumazos - Analyst

    John Tumazos - Analyst

  • If you could bear with me one more, Jesse. The alumina shortage reversed in November to surplus. And if the IAI statistics are accurate, in the first quarter, the surplus margin was 2.2% more metallurgical alumina than 1.92 times world smelter output, which is a considerable margin.

    如果你能再忍受我一次,傑西。11月份氧化鋁由短缺轉為過剩。而如果IAI的統計數據準確的話,今年第一季度,冶金氧化鋁的盈餘比全球冶煉廠產量的1.92倍還高出2.2%,這是一個相當可觀的盈餘。

  • Do you expect alumina refineries to close to balance the market? Or do you expect alumina will find its way from China, Vietnam, India to feed resource capacity and the Chinese will choose to produce more metal rather than close refineries.

    您是否預計氧化鋁精煉廠會關閉以平衡市場?或者您是否預期氧化鋁將從中國、越南、印度進口以滿足資源產能,而中國會選擇生產更多金屬而不是關閉煉油廠。

  • And further, there's more refineries on the drawing board in India and Indonesia and even in China, that could increase the alumina surplus. How do you think this plays out?

    此外,印度、印尼甚至中國都在規劃建造更多的煉油廠,這可能會增加氧化鋁的過剩供應。您認為結果會怎樣?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Over time, when you look back, the alumina market has actually been fairly disciplined in curtailing capacity when the price is indicated. And so, our expectation would be that you would start to see closures at price levels if price levels go low enough to demand that.

    是的。隨著時間的推移,當你回顧時,你會發現氧化鋁市場在價格確定時實際上已經相當自律地削減了產能。因此,我們的預期是,如果價格水準低到足以產生這種需求,你就會開始看到價格水準的關閉。

  • You did see a little bit of that as the alumina price went lower and then bounced higher more recently. So, we're back around that $350 level per ton on the API. But our expectation would be you will see closures if alumina price continues to fall or to match increasing supply over time.

    你確實看到了一點這樣的情況,因為氧化鋁價格最近先是走低,然後又反彈走高。因此,API 價格又回到了每噸 350 美元左右的水平。但我們預計,如果氧化鋁價格持續下跌或隨著供應增加,就會出現關閉的情況。

  • John Tumazos - Analyst

    John Tumazos - Analyst

  • Thank you. I'll let somebody else ask question. Congratulations on the profits.

    謝謝。我會讓其他人提問。恭喜獲利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

    尼克吉爾斯 (Nick Giles),B. Riley 證券。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Thank you so much for taking my follow-up here. In your 2Q guide, you outlined a $5 million to $10 million hit on raw materials. But when I try to do the back of the neck and compare it to your 1Q guide using your sensitivities, I get closer to an annual hit of this magnitude, not a quarterly impact. So, I just wanted to see if I'm missing something or if there was anything in the 1Q print that would have been different from your initial guide?

    非常感謝您在這裡關注我的後續問題。在您的第二季指南中,您概述了原材料損失 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。但是,當我嘗試進行分析並使用您的敏感度將其與您的 1Q 指南進行比較時,我得到的結論更接近於這種規模的年度衝擊,而不是季度影響。所以,我只是想看看我是否遺漏了什麼,或者第一季的印刷品中是否有任何內容與您最初的指南不同?

  • Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Hey Nick, its Peter. I can kind of give you a quick update on that. So, what we've shown on the page is the coke pitch and caustic price realizations that we expect across our smelters and our refinery.

    嘿,尼克,我是彼得。我可以向您簡要介紹一下有關情況。因此,我們在頁面上顯示的是我們預期的冶煉廠和精煉廠的焦炭瀝青和苛性鹼價格實現情況。

  • Coke is starting to see price increases as well as pitch and caustic. So, if you take the sensitivities that we have in our appendix, and we can help with the modeling of this. For the quarter, it's at least $5 million to $7 million. For the guide, we said $5 million to $10 million for raw materials. So, there's some other pluses and minuses within this bucket, but we try to just show you here what we have in our sensitivities.

    可口可樂、瀝青和苛性鹼的價格也開始上漲。因此,如果您考慮到附錄中的敏感性,我們可以幫助您對其進行建模。本季度,這一數字至少為 500 萬至 700 萬美元。作為指導,我們說原材料價格為 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。因此,這個桶子裡還有一些其他的優點和缺點,但我們試圖在這裡向您展示我們的敏感性。

  • So, for the three in total, coke, pitch, and caustic, all seeing some temporary price headwinds. And the sensitivities for the quarter, we can help you with the math and the modeling, but it equates to about $5 million to $7 million.

    因此,焦炭、瀝青和苛性鹼這三種產品的價格都出現了暫時的阻力。對於本季的敏感度,我們可以幫助您進行數學計算和建模,但它相當於約 500 萬至 700 萬美元。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • No, that makes sense, Peter. I appreciate that. And I'll certainly take you up on that. My last one, if I could. When we think about the new aluminum smelter, can you just remind us of what some of the key milestones are? What would be the earliest that you could deploy meaningful capital towards the project?

    不,這很有道理,彼得。我很感激。我一定會接受你的建議。如果可以的話,這是我的最後一個。當我們考慮新的鋁冶煉廠時,您能否提醒我們一些關鍵的里程碑是什麼?您最早什麼時候可以為該專案投入有意義的資金?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks Nick. Great question. And we remain really excited about the project. We're working really hard. The next two key milestones, which are linked are to finalize negotiations of the power arrangements. And then following from that and driven from that, we'll be making a site selection.

    是的。謝謝尼克。好問題。我們仍然對這個項目感到非常興奮。我們真的很努力。接下來的兩個關鍵里程碑是相互關聯的,也就是完成電力安排的協商。然後,在此基礎上,我們將進行選址。

  • And then the next phase after that is actually further engineering work, which will take you into 2026 before you start to see any significant CapEx spend for the project.

    隨後的下一階段實際上是進一步的工程工作,這將持續到 2026 年,之後您才會開始看到該專案的任何重大資本支出。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Got it. And just as far as the project's competitiveness, I mean, I can't imagine a more favorable environment for a domestic producer like Century. So, is there anything that could change or unwind such as a Canadian exemption for Section 232 that would, in your mind, change the competitiveness of the project? Or do you feel like the project will stand on its own two feet even if we were to see such an exemption?

    知道了。就專案的競爭力而言,我無法想像對於像世紀這樣的國內生產商來說還有比這更有利的環境。那麼,在您看來,是否有任何因素可以改變或取消,例如加拿大對第 232 條的豁免,從而改變該項目的競爭力?或者您覺得即使我們看到這樣的豁免,該專案也能獨立運作?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. As you might imagine, we're taking very long-term but disciplined view on the returns for a project of this size. And so, we're not modeling for a year or two out. We're modeling for a very long lifespan for what will be a 50-year asset once built.

    是的。正如您可能想像的那樣,我們對這種規模的項目的回報採取了非常長遠但嚴謹的看法。所以,我們不會為一兩年後的情況進行建模。我們正在為一項一旦建成就能使用 50 年的資產進行非常長的使用壽命建模。

  • And so, when we look at that, we're looking at very long-term trends. But obviously, the current market environment is a great -- as you said, is a very constructive environment to find ourselves in when considering a project.

    因此,當我們觀察這一點時,我們看到的是長期趨勢。但顯然,當前的市場環境非常好——正如您所說,當我們考慮一個項目時,我們會發現當前的市場環境非常具有建設性。

  • And in that, I include the political environment and the dedication of this administration towards reshoring manufacturing. So, we think this is the exact type of project that this administration wants to see. And we continue to think that the policy coming out of this administration will continue to be supportive of the project.

    這其中包括政治環境和本屆政府對製造業回流的決心。因此,我們認為這正是本屆政府希望看到的項目類型。我們仍然認為本屆政府所推出的政策將繼續支持該計畫。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Good to hear. Guys, again, keep up the good work.

    很高興聽到這個消息。夥計們,再一次繼續努力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are currently no questions registered. (Operator Instructions)

    目前沒有登記任何問題。(操作員指示)

  • There are no registered questions at this time. I'd like to pass the call back over to Ryan for any further remarks.

    目前沒有已註冊的問題。我想將電話轉回給瑞安,以便他可以發表進一步的評論。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • This is Jesse. I'll just say thanks, everyone, for joining the call and we look forward to talking to you next in August. Have a good summer everybody.

    這是傑西。我只想對大家參加電話會議表示感謝,我們期待在八月再次與你們交談。祝大家夏天愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you all. That will now conclude today's call. We appreciate your participation. Hope you have a wonderful day and you may now disconnect your lines.

    謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。希望您度過美好的一天,現在您可以斷開線路了。