Century Aluminum Co (CENX) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining today's Century Aluminum Company third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Regan, and I'll be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions)

    各位下午好,感謝各位參加今天世紀鋁業公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。我叫雷根,今天我將擔任主持人。(操作說明)

  • I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Ryan Crawford with Century Aluminum. Please proceed.

    現在,我想把會議交給我們的東道主,來自 Century Aluminum 的 Ryan Crawford。請繼續。

  • Ryan Crawford - Financial Planning & Analysis and Investor Relations Manager

    Ryan Crawford - Financial Planning & Analysis and Investor Relations Manager

  • Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the third quarter conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

    謝謝接線生。各位下午好,歡迎參加第三季電話會議。今天和我一起出席的有世紀公司總裁兼執行長傑西·加里,以及執行副總裁、財務長兼財務主管彼得·特普科夫斯基。

  • After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD.

    在我們發表完準備好的發言後,我們將回答你們的問題。再次提醒,今天的簡報可在我們的網站 www.centuryaluminum.com 上查看。我們使用網站來披露有關公司的重要信息,並遵守《公平披露條例》(Regulation FD)。

  • Turning to slide 1. Please take a moment to review the cautionary statements with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures in today's discussion.

    翻到第一張投影片。請花點時間回顧今天討論中有關前瞻性陳述和非GAAP財務指標的警示性聲明。

  • And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

    那麼,我就把電話交給傑西了。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ryan, and thanks to everyone for joining. I'll start today with a note on safety, before turning to our Q3 operational performance, including our timeline for resuming full production at Grundartangi. I'll then update you on some of our key strategic initiatives, including progress on the Mt. Holly expansion project, our Hawesville strategic review and our new US smelter project before concluding with a discussion of the outstanding global market conditions that we are operating in today.

    謝謝瑞恩,也謝謝大家的參與。今天我先就安全問題​​談幾點,然後再談談我們第三季度的營運業績,包括我們在格倫達坦吉恢復全面生產的時間表。接下來,我將向大家介紹我們的一些關鍵戰略舉措,包括霍利山擴建項目的進展、霍斯維爾戰略審查以及我們新的美國冶煉廠項目,最後討論我們目前所處的卓越的全球市場環境。

  • Pete will then walk you through our Q3 results and our Q4 guide and provide an update on the receipt of our fiscal year 2024 45X payment from the government, which occurred shortly after quarter end. I'll then end the call with an update on our capital allocation plans.

    接下來,Pete 將帶您了解我們的第三季度業績和第四季度業績指南,並更新我們收到政府 2024 財年 45X 付款的情況,該款項在季度末後不久到賬。最後,我將報告我們的資本配置計畫。

  • Safety is core to everything we do here at Century. Every so often, the company is faced with extraordinary events frequently outside of our control that give us an opportunity to live up to our words and demonstrate our commitment to these core safety values.

    在世紀公司,安全是我們一切工作的核心。公司不時會面臨一些我們無法控制的特殊事件,這給了我們一個機會來履行我們的承諾,並展現我們對這些核心安全價值的承諾。

  • As everyone knows, on October 28, Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as one of the strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall in the Atlantic Basin. I'm proud to say that through the dedicated planning, hard work and readiness of our Jamaican team members, Jamalco weathered this catastrophic storm, protecting the refinery from any significant damage and most importantly, without suffering a single injury. Not only did the team secure the well-being of the facility and our employees, but then immediately began to provide assistance to the surrounding communities, providing potable water to local towns, villages and hospitals following the storm.

    眾所周知,10 月 28 日,颶風梅麗莎在牙買加登陸,是登陸大西洋盆地最強的颶風之一。我很自豪地說,憑藉牙買加團隊成員的精心策劃、辛勤工作和充分準備,Jamalco 經受住了這場災難性風暴的考驗,保護了煉油廠免受任何重大損害,最重要的是,沒有造成任何人員傷亡。團隊不僅保障了設施和員工的安全,而且在風暴過後立即開始向周邊社區提供援助,為當地城鎮、村莊和醫院提供飲用水。

  • We will continue to work with the government of Jamaica and our partners at Clarendon Alumina Partners to identify areas of need and provide support where we can. So we are very proud of the team at Jamalco. I'm pleased to say that production has already restarted at the refinery, and we expect to resume full production over the next couple of weeks. We do not believe that the storm or its aftermath will have any material impact on our financial results.

    我們將繼續與牙買加政府和我們的合作夥伴 Clarendon Alumina Partners 合作,確定需要幫助的領域,並在力所能及的範圍內提供支援。所以我們為Jamalco團隊感到非常自豪。我很高興地告訴大家,煉油廠已經恢復生產,我們預計在未來幾週內恢復全面生產。我們認為這場風暴及其後續影響不會對我們的財務表現產生任何實質影響。

  • Turning to page 3 and operations. As we announced on October 21, the Grundartangi smelter was forced to temporarily stop production in potline two following the failure of two of its electrical transformers over a seven-week period in September and October. Fortunately, the team at Grundartangi was able to execute a safe and orderly shutdown of the potline despite these failures, tapping down the pots without injuries and leaving the line in as good a shape as possible for Restart. These transformer failures were very disappointing as both were well within their expected life. We are working with the designers and manufacturers of the transformers to better understand what caused these failures.

    翻到第3頁,了解操作步驟。正如我們在 10 月 21 日宣布的那樣,由於格倫達坦吉冶煉廠的兩台電力變壓器在 9 月和 10 月的七週時間內發生故障,該冶煉廠被迫暫時停止二號電解槽生產線的生產。幸運的是,儘管出現了這些故障,Grundartangi 團隊還是能夠安全有序地關閉生產線,在不造成人員傷亡的情況下敲落了所有池子,並使生產線盡可能地保持良好狀態,以便重新開始。這兩次變壓器故障非常令人失望,因為它們都遠遠沒有達到預期使用壽命。我們正在與變壓器的設計者和製造商合作,以更好地了解造成這些故障的原因。

  • The team at Grundartangi is wasting no time and has already begun preliminary preparations to Restart production in Line 2. The timeline for Restart is dependent on how quickly replacement transformers can be manufactured, shipped and installed. Based on current estimates, we expect that it will take 11 to 12 months for this work to be completed. Of course, we are working hard to optimize and reduce the timeline for Restart on several fronts, including the potential to repair and reuse the failed transformers for some time period before the replacement transformers arrive.

    Grundartangi 團隊沒有浪費時間,已經開始為重啟 2 號生產線的生產做初步準備。重啟計畫的時間表取決於替換變壓器的生產、運輸和安裝速度。根據目前的估計,我們預計這項工作需要 11 到 12 個月才能完成。當然,我們正在努力從多個方面優化和縮短重啟的時間表,包括在更換變壓器到達之前,盡可能修復和重複使用故障變壓器一段時間。

  • Although we are not yet certain this approach will be possible, we are working with the designer and manufacturer of these transformers to assess this path. If successful, the repair path could reduce the time line for Restart by several months. We will continue to provide you with updates on Restart timing on our next earnings call. Finally, we have submitted initial claims to our insurers and continue to expect that the losses arising from these events will be covered under our property and business interruption insurance policies.

    雖然我們還不能確定這種方法是否可行,但我們正在與這些變壓器的設計者和製造商合作,以評估這條路徑。如果修復成功,可以將重啟時間縮短幾個月。我們將在下次財報電話會議上繼續向您提供有關重啟時間表的最新消息。最後,我們已向保險公司提交了初步索賠申請,並繼續期望這些事件造成的損失能夠得到我們的財產和營業中斷保險的賠償。

  • Turning to Mt. Holly. We are pleased to announce last month that we signed an extension to the Mt. Holly power agreement through 2031. In addition to supporting the current operations, the new agreement provides all of the necessary power for our previously announced Restart of more than 50,000 metric tons per year of incremental production at Mt. Holly, which will return the plant to full production.

    轉向霍利山。我們很高興地宣布,上個月我們簽署了與 Mt. Holly 電力公司的續約協議,有效期至 2031 年。除了支持目前的營運外,新協議還為我們先前宣布的重啟芒特霍利工廠每年增加 50,000 公噸產量提供了所有必要的動力,這將使該工廠恢復全面生產。

  • The Mt. Holly Restart project is making great progress with hiring and capital work already underway at the site. We continue to expect that we will begin to produce incremental units at the beginning of Q2 2026 and complete the Restart by the end of June. Production of the additional units will gradually increase throughout the second quarter.

    Mt. Holly Restart 專案進展順利,招募和現場建造工作已經展開。我們仍然預計,我們將在 2026 年第二季初開始逐步恢復生產,並在 6 月底完成重啟。第二季度,新增產品的產量將逐漸增加。

  • Unrelated to the Restart, we did suffer some instability in Mt. Holly production in Q3 that resulted in production from the plant falling below expectations by approximately 4,000 tonnes in Q3. Pete will provide you with more color on the impact on our Q3 results. This instability was fully resolved by mid-October, and the plant has been operating at normal production levels ever since. We do not expect any further production impact after October.

    與重啟無關,我們在第三季的霍利山工廠生產中確實遇到了一些不穩定情況,導致該工廠第三季的產量比預期低了約 4,000 噸。Pete會為大家詳細介紹這對我們第三季業績的影響。到 10 月中旬,這種不穩定性已完全解決,此後該工廠一直以正常的生產水準運作。我們預計10月後不會對生產造成進一步影響。

  • Finally, at Sebree, we had another quarter of near record performance across a suite of operational and financial KPIs. The plant, our management team and our employees there are really performing at the top of their game, and it's great to see.

    最後,在 Sebree,我們在一系列營運和財務 KPI 方面又取得了接近歷史最高水準的業績。工廠、我們的管理團隊和員工都發揮了最佳水平,這真是令人欣慰。

  • Turning to our other strategic initiatives, starting with Hawesville. After our last call, we received a significant amount of additional interest in the site, including from new parties, which led us to extend the strategic review process. We are now proceeding with the final stages of those discussions with new and existing parties now. Suffice to say, there's been lots of excitement around the potential of the site.

    接下來談談我們的其他策略舉措,首先是霍斯維爾計畫。上次通話後,我們收到了大量關於網站的額外關注,包括來自新各方的關注,這促使我們延長了策略審查流程。我們現在正與新舊各方進行最後階段的討論。毋庸置疑,人們對該網站的潛力感到非常興奮。

  • At the same time, rising aluminum prices and continued global shortages continue to bolster Restart economics at the Hawesville site and for our new greenfield aluminum smelter project. Once built, the new smelter project will be amongst the most modern and efficient smelters in the world. It will double the size of the existing US industry, creating over 1,000 full-time direct jobs and over 5,500 construction jobs.

    同時,鋁價上漲和全球鋁短缺持續支撐著霍斯維爾工廠和我們新建的綠地鋁冶煉廠項目的重啟經濟效益。建成後,這座新的冶煉廠計畫將成為世界上最現代化、最高效的冶煉廠之一。這將使美國現有產業規模翻一番,創造超過 1000 個全職直接就業機會和超過 5500 個建築業就業機會。

  • During the quarter, we advanced negotiations with potential power providers. Good progress in this regard means we are now focused on a single site and power provider for the new smelter. We have also had lots of interest from potential joint venture partners for the smelter and have started discussions with select high-quality counterparties. While these conversations are still at the early stages, we are encouraged with the interest levels we have had to date and now see some form of partnership as the most likely path forward with the project.

    本季度,我們與潛在的電力供應商進行了深入談判。在這方面取得的良好進展意味著我們現在專注於為新冶煉廠選擇單一廠址和電力供應商。我們也收到了許多潛在合資夥伴對冶煉廠的濃厚興趣,並已開始與一些精選的高品質交易對手進行洽談。雖然這些對話仍處於早期階段,但我們對迄今為止所獲得的興趣程度感到鼓舞,現在我們認為某種形式的合作是該計畫最有可能的前進方向。

  • Altogether, President Trump's policies have enabled a future where we could see US production triple by the end of the decade. We here at Century are proud to do our part to make this future a reality and bring industrial jobs back to America. I'd like to thank President Trump for the significant actions that he and his administration have taken to restore American manufacturing and stand up for American workers. The Section 232 tariffs have truly enabled a new future for the US aluminum industry.

    總而言之,川普總統的政策使得美國製造業在未來十年末有望實現三倍成長。我們世紀公司很自豪能夠為實現這一未來、將工業就業機會帶回美國貢獻一份力量。我要感謝川普總統及其政府為恢復美國製造業和維護美國工人權益所採取的重大舉措。第 232 條款關稅確實為美國鋁業開闢了新的未來。

  • Just before I turn things over to Pete, I'd like to review the very strong market conditions that we are operating in today and that we see persisting well into 2026.

    在把發言權交給皮特之前,我想回顧一下我們目前所處的非常強勁的市場環境,我們預計這種環境將持續到 2026 年。

  • As you can see on page 4, Q3 saw aluminum prices rise across the complex as continued global demand growth paired with a persistently challenged supply side drove realized LME prices of $2,508 in the quarter and continue to drive spot aluminum prices to approximately $2,850 today.

    正如您在第 4 頁所看到的,第三季鋁價在整個市場上漲,持續的全球需求成長加上持續的供應挑戰,推動倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 的鋁價在本季達到 2,508 美元,並繼續推動現貨鋁價上漲至今天的約 2,850 美元。

  • As you can see on page 5, the world has a shortage of aluminum units today, driving further contraction of global inventories to new post-financial crisis lows and leaving the market sensitive to even the slightest supply disruptions or increase in demand.

    正如你在第 5 頁所看到的,目前世界鋁材短缺,導致全球庫存進一步萎縮至金融危機後的新低,使得市場對哪怕最輕微的供應中斷或需求增加都非常敏感。

  • This is especially true in our two-core markets in the US and Europe. Regional premiums in the US and Europe both strengthened in Q3, as the fundamentally strong US economy and improving European industrial activity drove demand and caused premiums in both markets to rise. While raw demand in both markets was especially notable driven by the well-publicized power infrastructure build-out, power and data infrastructure build-out should continue to drive additional aluminum demand as we move forward into 2026.

    這一點在我們位於美國和歐洲的兩大核心市場尤其如此。第三季度,美國和歐洲的區域保費均有所走強,因為美國經濟基本面強勁,歐洲工業活動不斷改善,推動了需求,導致這兩個市場的保費上漲。雖然兩個市場的原始需求都特別值得關注,這主要得益於廣為人知的電力基礎設施建設,但隨著我們邁入 2026 年,電力和數據基礎設施的建設應該會繼續推動鋁需求的成長。

  • Realized Midwest and European premiums averaged $1,425 and $193 per ton, respectively, in the quarter and have risen further in Q4 with Midwest premium spot prices at $1,950 and European duty paid premium spot prices at $320 today.

    本季實際中西部和歐洲的溢價平均分別為每噸 1,425 美元和 193 美元,第四季進一步上漲,目前中西部溢價現貨價格為每噸 1,950 美元,歐洲完稅溢價現貨價格為每噸 320 美元。

  • As we start to conclude the 2026 sales season, we are seeing increased demand across our customer base for all of our US billet products. As the largest producer of primary aluminum in the United States, Century stands ready to meet this demand. We now expect that we will see an approximately $0.05 year-over-year increase across our 2026 billet sales, which should generate an additional $30 million of 2026 EBITDA.

    隨著 2026 年銷售季接近尾聲,我們看到客戶對我們所有美國鋼坯產品的需求都在增加。作為美國最大的原鋁生產商,世紀鋁業已做好滿足這項需求的準備。我們現在預計,2026 年鋼坯銷售額將年增約 0.05 美元,這將為 2026 年帶來 3,000 萬美元的額外 EBITDA。

  • Pete will now take you through our financial performance in more detail.

    接下來,皮特將更詳細地向大家介紹我們的財務表現。

  • Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Peter Trpkovski - Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to slide 7 and review our Q3 performance. On a consolidated basis, third quarter shipments totaled approximately 162,000 tonnes, a decrease from the prior quarter due to brief operational instability at Mt. Holly and the Grundartangi transformer failure.

    謝謝你,傑西。讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片,回顧一下我們第三季的業績。從綜合來看,第三季出貨量總計約 162,000 噸,較上一季有所下降,原因是霍利山工廠短暫的運作不穩定以及格倫達坦吉變壓器故障。

  • Net sales for the quarter were $632 million, a $4 million increase primarily due to higher realized Midwest premium, partially offset by lower shipments. For the quarter, we reported net income of $15 million or $0.15 per share.

    本季淨銷售額為 6.32 億美元,比上季增加了 400 萬美元,主要原因是中西部地區溢價實現較高,但部分被出貨量下降所抵銷。本季度,我們公佈的淨收入為 1500 萬美元,即每股 0.15 美元。

  • Our adjusted net income was $58 million or $0.56 per share, excluding exceptional items. Adjusted EBITDA was $101 million for the quarter, mainly driven by the increased Midwest premium price, partially offset by lower volumes and product premiums at Mt. Holly in the quarter.

    不計特殊項目,我們調整後的淨收入為 5,800 萬美元,即每股 0.56 美元。本季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.01 億美元,主要得益於 Midwest 地區溢價的上漲,但部分被 Mt. Holly 地區本季銷售量和產品溢價的下降所抵銷。

  • Moving on, we continue to make progress on improving our balance sheet during the quarter. Liquidity increased to $488 million, up $125 million quarter over quarter, and our cash balance stood at $151 million. The significant increase in liquidity and cash metrics reflects receipt of the proceeds from refinancing our senior notes, which was finalized in July. We recently used the proceeds to pay off the remainder of the Icelandic castthouse facility as intended.

    接下來,我們本季在改善資產負債表方面持續取得進展。流動資金增至 4.88 億美元,季增 1.25 億美元,現金餘額為 1.51 億美元。流動性和現金指標的顯著增長反映了我們收到了7月份完成的高級票據再融資所得款項。我們最近按計劃用這筆收益付清了冰島鑄造廠剩餘的款項。

  • Net debt was $475 million, a slight increase from prior quarter due to a normal working capital build I will discuss later. As Jesse mentioned, we were pleased to receive our fiscal year 2024 45X payment of approximately $75 million from the IRS in October, which will help to significantly lower our net debt amount in Q4. Despite some lower-than-anticipated production output this quarter, our core financial performance remains strong and demonstrates the underlying strength of our business.

    淨債務為 4.75 億美元,較上一季略有增加,這是由於正常的營運資金增加,我稍後會討論這個問題。正如傑西所提到的,我們很高興在 10 月收到了美國國稅局支付的 2024 財年 45X 款項,金額約為 7500 萬美元,這將有助於大幅降低我們第四季度的淨債務金額。儘管本季產量低於預期,但我們的核心財務表現依然強勁,展現了我們業務的內在實力。

  • Now let's turn to page 8, and I'll provide a breakdown of adjusted EBITDA results from Q2 to Q3. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter increased $27 million to $101 million. Realized LME of $2,508 per ton was down $32 versus prior quarter, while realized US Midwest premium of $1,425 per ton was up $575. The benefit from higher Midwest premium was slightly offset by lower realized European duty paid premium down $26 per ton to $193.

    現在讓我們翻到第 8 頁,我將提供第二季到第三季的調整後 EBITDA 結果明細。第三季調整後 EBITDA 增加 2,700 萬美元,達到 1.01 億美元。倫敦金屬交易所(LME)實際價格為每噸 2,508 美元,比上一季下降 32 美元;而美國中西部地區實際溢價為每噸 1,425 美元,上漲 575 美元。中西部溢價上漲帶來的好處被歐洲實際繳納關稅溢價下降26美元/噸至193美元/噸略微抵銷。

  • Taken together, LME and regional premium pricing contributed an incremental $48 million compared with the prior quarter. Energy costs were higher, driven by a warmer-than-average end of summer in the US and higher LME prices impacting our Icelandic power contracts that are linked to the spot metal price. Energy prices have returned to more normalized levels in October, but the Q3 headwind reduced adjusted EBITDA by $9 million.

    綜合來看,倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 和區域溢價定價比上一季增加了 4800 萬美元。能源成本上漲,原因是美國夏季末期氣溫高於平均水平,以及倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 價格上漲影響了我們與現貨金屬價格掛鉤的冰島電力合約。10 月能源價格已恢復到較正常的水平,但第三季的不利因素導致調整後 EBITDA 減少了 900 萬美元。

  • Alumina and our other key raw materials were approximately flat in the quarter, in line with our previously provided outlook. Continued pressure on the US dollar compared to the Icelandic krona resulted in a quarter-over-quarter headwind that was offset by lower operating costs. However, our operating costs were slightly elevated compared to expectations as additional maintenance costs were required following the brief potline instability at Mt. Holly that Jesse mentioned earlier. Mt. Holly is back to full and stable production, but this event resulted in lower Q3 production, translating into approximately a $10 million headwind compared to our expectations.

    本季氧化鋁和其他主要原料的產量基本持平,與我們先前提供的預期一致。美元兌冰島克朗持續承壓,導致季度環比下滑,但營運成本下降抵消了這一不利影響。然而,由於傑西之前提到的霍利山電解槽生產線短暫不穩定,需要額外的維護成本,因此我們的營運成本比預期略高。霍利山礦已恢復全面穩定的生產,但這起事件導致第三季產量下降,與我們的預期相比,造成了約 1,000 萬美元的不利影響。

  • Now let's turn to slide 9 for a look at cash flow. We began the quarter with $41 million in cash. In July, we successfully completed the refinancing of our $250 million senior secured 7.5% notes with new $400 million senior secured notes at an improved coupon. As we explained at the last call, the proceeds from this transaction were used to pay down the outstanding debt on the new Icelandic casthouse. This debt repayment occurred early in Q4 and will be reflected in our Q4 financials next call.

    現在讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片,看看現金流。本季初,我們擁有4100萬美元現金。7 月,我們成功完成了 2.5 億美元優先擔保 7.5% 票據的再融資,發行了新的 4 億美元優先擔保票據,票面利率提高。正如我們在上次電話會議上解釋的那樣,此次交易所得款項用於償還新建冰島鑄造廠的未償債務。這筆債務償還發生在第四季初,將在下次電話會議上反映在我們的第四季財務報告中。

  • Our priority to lower debt and achieve the $300 million net debt target remains unchanged. We funded $16 million of CapEx in the quarter that went towards ongoing investments at Jamalco as well as sustaining CapEx at the smelters. We paid $12 million in interest during the quarter that will decrease going forward as the recent refinancing transaction was completed at an improved coupon of 6.875%.

    我們降低債務並實現3億美元淨債務目標的首要任務仍然不變。本季我們投入了 1,600 萬美元的資本支出,用於 Jamalco 的持續投資以及冶煉廠的維持性資本支出。本季我們支付了 1,200 萬美元的利息,隨著最近的再融資交易以 6.875% 的改善票息完成,未來利息支出將會減少。

  • We also paid down various credit facilities to end the period with minimal borrowings on our revolvers. We continue to accrue 45X tax credits in Q3. As of September 30, we had a receivable of $220 million related to full year 2023, 2024 and 2025 year-to-date US production. As I noted earlier, in October, we were pleased to receive $75 million from the IRS from our Section 45X filing for fiscal year 2024. We continue to expect to receive the fiscal year 2023 credit in the coming months.

    我們也償還了各種信貸款項,以盡量減少該期間內循環信貸的借款。第三季我們繼續獲得 45 倍稅收抵免。截至 9 月 30 日,我們有 2.2 億美元的應收帳款,與 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年美國年初至今的產量有關。正如我之前提到的,10 月份,我們很高興收到美國國稅局根據 2024 財年第 45X 條款申報的 7500 萬美元。我們仍預計在未來幾個月內收到 2023 財年的稅收抵免。

  • Finally, we had a working capital build this quarter as timing of alumina shipments increased inventory levels and the higher price environment for LME and Midwest premium increased accounts receivable balances. We expect to improve our working capital as we approach year-end. We ended Q3 with $151 million in cash and strong liquidity in place to support our Mt. Holly expansion.

    最後,由於氧化鋁發貨時間的推移增加了庫存水平,加上倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 和中西部溢價的上漲導致應收帳款餘額增加,本季度我們的營運資金有所增加。我們預計隨著年底臨近,營運資金狀況將有所改善。第三季末,我們擁有 1.51 億美元的現金,充足的流動資金足以支持我們在 Mt. Holly 的擴張。

  • The Restart project is on schedule and progressing well. We will begin to call out the cash outlays in future quarters as capital and operating expense dollars from the Mt. Holly project become more material.

    「重啟」專案按計畫進行,進展順利。隨著 Mt. Holly 專案的資本支出和營運支出變得更加重要,我們將在未來的幾季開始公佈現金支出狀況。

  • Now let's turn to page 10 and look ahead to the next 90 days. At current realized prices, we expect Q4 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $170 million to $180 million. For Q4, the lagged LME of $2,705 per ton is expected to be up about $197 versus Q3 realized prices.

    現在讓我們翻到第 10 頁,展望接下來的 90 天。以目前實際價格計算,我們預計第四季度調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.7 億美元至 1.8 億美元之間。預計第四季倫敦金屬交易所(LME)價格為每噸 2,705 美元,較第三季實際價格上漲約 197 美元。

  • The Q4 lagged US Midwest premium of $1,775 per ton is up $350 versus Q3. The realized European duty paid premium is expected to be $275 per ton in Q4 or up about $82. Taken together, the lagged LME and delivery premium changes are expected to have an approximately $65 million increase to Q4 adjusted EBITDA when compared with Q3 levels. We expect similar energy price levels in Q4 as US energy costs are forecasted flat to previous quarter and are expected to have no impact on quarter-over-quarter adjusted EBITDA.

    第四季美國中西部溢價每噸 1,775 美元,較第三季上漲 350 美元。預計第四季度歐洲已付關稅溢價將達到每噸 275 美元,比上一季上漲約 82 美元。綜合來看,滯後的 LME 和交割溢價變化預計將使第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 比第三季增加約 6,500 萬美元。我們預計第四季度能源價格水準與上一季類似,因為預計美國能源成本將與上一季持平,預計不會對季度調整後的 EBITDA 產生影響。

  • Coke, pitch, and caustic prices have modest increases, but are partially offset by carbon emission allowances, resulting in a potential headwind of $0 million to $5 million quarter over quarter impact. We expect our Q4 operating expense costs to improve by $0 million to $5 million. Volume and mix should also improve by $10 million as Mt. Holly has returned to full pot complement following the brief instability in Q3.

    焦炭、瀝青和燒鹼價格略有上漲,但部分被碳排放配額所抵消,因此可能對季度環比造成 0 至 500 萬美元的不利影響。我們預計第四季營運費用將減少0至500萬美元。由於 Mt. Holly 在經歷了第三季的短暫不穩定後已恢復全面供應,產量和產品組合也應增加 1000 萬美元。

  • At Grundartangi, the Line two outage is expected to negatively impact shipments by 37,000 tons and EBITDA by $30 million in the fourth quarter. As Jesse said, we expect the financial impact of the Line two outage to be covered by our insurance policies. Of course, the insurance proceeds could lag the actual loss by a couple of quarters.

    預計格倫達坦吉工廠二號生產線停工將導致第四季出貨量減少 37,000 噸,EBITDA 減少 3,000 萬美元。正如傑西所說,我們預計二號線停駛造成的經濟損失將由我們的保險單承保。當然,保險賠償金可能會比實際損失落後幾季。

  • We will normalize the timing of the insurance payments by adjusting EBITDA in the period where the financial impact occurred and adjusting out the receipt of the insurance proceeds in future quarters.

    我們將透過調整財務影響發生期間的 EBITDA 並調整未來季度收到的保險賠款,來規範保險賠款的支付時間。

  • We'll continue to call out the adjustments as exceptional items in the coming quarters, and we have already included this adjustment in our Q4 adjusted EBITDA outlook. We also include the estimated hedge and tax impacts to help model our business. We expect a $10 million to $15 million headwind from realized hedge settlements and $5 million tax expense, both flowing through our Q4 P&L and impacting adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share. As a reminder, our appendix details the full hedge book and continues to show the vast majority of LME and regional premium volumes are exposed to market prices.

    在接下來的幾個季度中,我們將繼續把這些調整列為特殊項目,並且我們已經將這項調整納入了我們第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 預期中。我們還納入了對沖和稅務影響的估計,以幫助我們建立業務模型。我們預計已實現的對沖結算將帶來 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的不利影響,同時還有 500 萬美元的稅收支出,這兩項支出都將計入我們第四季度的損益表,並影響調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股收益。提醒一下,我們的附錄詳細列出了完整的避險帳簿,並繼續表明倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 和區域溢價交易量的絕大部分都受到市場價格的影響。

  • Now I'll hand the call back to Jesse.

    現在我把電話轉回給傑西。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Pete. As we begin to look forward to 2026, the business is well positioned to generate significant cash flows over the balance of this year and throughout 2026. For instance, if you were to take our Q4 outlook and just update for spot metal prices, our expected adjusted EBITDA generation would increase by approximately $45 million to $220 million. The incremental Mt. Holly Restart tonnes should further increase profitability starting in Q2 2026.

    謝謝你,皮特。展望 2026 年,公司已做好充分準備,在今年剩餘時間和整個 2026 年產生可觀的現金流。例如,如果您採用我們第四季度的展望,並根據現貨金屬價格進行更新,我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將增加約 4500 萬美元,達到 2.2 億美元。從 2026 年第二季開始,霍利山重啟計畫新增噸位將進一步提高獲利能力。

  • In addition to strong EBITDA generation, we had $220 million in Section 45X receivables at the end of Q3, and we received our 2024 45X refund amount of $75 million in October. At these levels of EBITDA generation and the anticipated receipt of cash against our 45X receivables over the coming months, we are well positioned to reach our net debt target of $300 million early in 2026. We are already well above our liquidity targets.

    除了強勁的 EBITDA 成長外,截至第三季末,我們還有 2.2 億美元的第 45X 條款應收款,並且我們在 10 月收到了 2024 年第 45X 條款退款金額 7,500 萬美元。按照目前的 EBITDA 生成水平,以及預計在未來幾個月內收到 45 倍應收帳款的現金,我們完全有能力在 2026 年初實現 3 億美元的淨債務目標。我們目前的流動性已經遠遠超過目標。

  • Per our capital allocation framework included in the Appendix, once we meet our capital allocation targets, we will continue to first allocate capital to our sustaining capital projects and identified organic growth projects. A good example here is our Mt. Holly expansion project that should be complete by the end of Q2 2026. In line with our standard practice, we will provide updated guidance on sustaining and investment capital spending for 2026 on our February call. As we have cash flows beyond our capital needs, we will continue to be opportunistic, but disciplined with M&A opportunities like our acquisition of Jamalco in 2023 and otherwise look to begin to return excess cash to our shareholders.

    根據附錄中所列的資本配置框架,一旦我們達到資本配置目標,我們將繼續先將資本分配給我們的持續資本項目和已確定的內生成長項目。一個很好的例子就是我們的芒特霍利擴建項目,該項目應該在 2026 年第二季末完成。按照我們的慣例,我們將在二月的電話會議上提供關於 2026 年維持性資本支出和投資性資本支出的最新指導意見。由於我們的現金流超過了資本需求,我們將繼續抓住機會,但對併購機會保持謹慎,例如我們在 2023 年收購 Jamalco,並尋求開始將多餘的現金返還給股東。

  • As we approach our net debt target, we thought it would be useful to provide some further guidance on the types of capital returns that we would anticipate once we have met our targets. While we are not announcing any actions today, we have started to assess our options, including listening to shareholder feedback that we receive from time to time.

    隨著我們即將實現淨債務目標,我們認為有必要進一步說明一旦達到目標後,我們預期會獲得哪些類型的資本回報。雖然我們今天不會宣布任何行動,但我們已經開始評估我們的選擇,包括聽取我們不時收到的股東回饋。

  • This feedback has been overwhelmingly in favor of the share buyback program as a means of returning capital to shareholders. We expect to come back to you all with further details and announcements as we move into 2026, including the amount and timing of any potential share repurchase programs.

    絕大多數回饋都支持股票回購計劃,認為這是向股東返還資本的一種方式。隨著我們邁入 2026 年,我們預計將向大家提供更多細節和公告,包括任何潛在的股票回購計畫的金額和時間。

  • Thanks to everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to taking your questions.

    感謝各位今天蒞臨,我們期待回答大家的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

    (操作員說明)Nick Giles,B. Riley Securities。

  • Fedor Shabalin - Equity Analyst

    Fedor Shabalin - Equity Analyst

  • This is Fedor Shabalin Selin on Nick Giles. And thanks for detailed report. I wanted to start with Mt. Holly. So if we were to isolate the Mt. Holly Restart, which is roughly 50,000 tonnes-plus, is it kind of safe to assume that this could generate in excess of $60 million in EBITDA at spot prices? And on the CapEx side, how much of CapEx has been already spent to date? And when would we expect you to achieve full run rate?

    這是費多爾·沙巴林·塞林在尼克·吉爾斯的節目中。感謝您提供的詳細報告。我想先從霍利山開始。因此,如果我們單獨考慮 Mt. Holly Restart 專案(產量約為 5 萬噸以上),是否可以合理地假設,以現貨價格計算,該專案可產生超過 6000 萬美元的 EBITDA?在資本支出方面,迄今為止已經花費了多少資本支出?我們預計您何時能達到滿載運轉狀態?

  • You mentioned it starting Q2 and finish Restart by June, if I'm correct, 2026, does it assume 100% utilization at this time?

    您提到該專案將於第二季啟動,並在2026年6月完成重啟,如果我沒記錯的話,屆時是否假設利用率達到100%?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Thanks for joining the call. This is Jesse.

    當然。感謝您參加通話。這是傑西。

  • Yeah. So we're, as I said, well on track with the Mt. Holly Restart, and we started the initial hiring and started some of the initial capital spending. But CapEx spending to date has been relatively minimal. You'll see more of that come in, in Q1 and Q2.

    是的。正如我所說,我們的芒特霍利重啟計劃進展順利,我們已經開始了初步招聘和一些初步的資本支出。但迄今為止,資本支出相對較少。第一季和第二季你會看到更多這樣的產品上市。

  • In total, as we said before, the total project should be somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million project spend. In terms of the additional EBITDA that we generated from the project, so you'll start to have units coming on in Q2 and then should be at full run rate starting in Q3. Once it reaches full run rate at spot prices today, the additional volume should generate about $25 million in additional EBITDA per quarter.

    正如我們之前所說,整個項目的總支出應該在 5000 萬美元左右。就我們從該專案中獲得的額外 EBITDA 而言,您將在第二季度開始看到部分單元投入運營,然後應該從第三季度開始達到滿載運轉。一旦以目前的現貨價格達到滿載運轉,額外的銷售量應該每季產生約 2500 萬美元的額外 EBITDA。

  • Fedor Shabalin - Equity Analyst

    Fedor Shabalin - Equity Analyst

  • This is helpful. And it would be great to get some additional perspective on how you're thinking about capital allocation. You already mentioned this. So your liquidity and net debt are roughly even amounts above your stated targets. So you're kind of indirectly at your target in some sense.

    這很有幫助。如果您能了解您對資本配置的思考方式,那就太好了。你之前已經提到過這一點了。因此,您的流動資金和淨債務大致比您設定的目標高出相同金額。所以從某種意義上來說,你間接地達到了目標。

  • And at what point will we consider high capital returns? And would you prefer buybacks or dividends? And then on the M&A side, would downstream opportunities be on the table?

    我們何時才會考慮高資本報酬率?你比較傾向股票回購還是分紅?那麼在併購方面,下游領域的機會是否會被納入考量呢?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So yes, as I mentioned, we have been -- given the significant cash flow that we have today and that we see generating going forward, especially when you consider the lagged payments of those 45X payments that are on our books, and just to note again, we did receive the first tranche of those 45X payments from 2024 fiscal year of $75 million in October. So you'll see that come through in our Q4 results.

    當然。是的,正如我所提到的,鑑於我們目前擁有的大量現金流,以及我們預計未來將產生的現金流,特別是考慮到我們賬面上那些 45X 付款的滯後付款,再次指出,我們在 10 月份收到了 2024 財年 45X 付款的第一批 7500 萬美元。所以你會在我們的第四季業績中看到這一點。

  • We do think that we will be in a position to reach those net debt targets in 2026. Once we do, we've spent a lot of time thinking about this, and we spent a lot of time talking with our shareholders, and there is a clear stated preference for buybacks. And so as we think about it today, that's the most likely form of capital return once we do reach those targets.

    我們認為,我們將有能力在 2026 年實現這些淨債務目標。一旦我們做出決定,我們已經花了很多時間思考這個問題,也花了很多時間與股東們討論,並且股東們明確表示傾向於股票回購。因此,當我們今天思考這個問題時,一旦我們達到這些目標,這很可能就是資本回報的形式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

    Katja Jancic,BMO資本市場。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • Maybe starting on Iceland. Did you say the repairs will take 11 to 12 months, but there is potential for you to accelerate the Restart of the potline?

    或許可以從冰島開始。您說維修需要 11 到 12 個月,但您有可能加快電解槽生產線的重新啟動速度嗎?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's right, Katja. So we're proceeding on two paths. The first path is the full replacement of those transformers. And there, we'll have to wait for the new transformers to be manufactured and then shipped to Iceland and then installed and then Restart, and that's in that 11- to 12-month timeline that I gave.

    沒錯,卡佳。所以我們正沿著兩條路前進。第一種方法是徹底更換這些變壓器。然後,我們需要等待新的變壓器製造完成,然後運往冰島,然後安裝完畢,再重新啟動,這都在我給出的 11 到 12 個月的時間表之內。

  • At the same time, we're investigating whether the damaged transformers can be repaired. And we're hopeful that, that will be the case, but we have additional work to do to prove that out. If we are able to follow repair path, we would still order the new transformers, but the repair transformers would allow us to bring production back online several months in advance of that 11- to 12-month time line for replacement.

    同時,我們正在調查受損的變壓器是否可以修復。我們希望情況確實如此,但我們還需要做更多的工作來證明這一點。如果我們能夠走上維修之路,我們仍然會訂購新的變壓器,但維修變壓器將使我們能夠比更換所需的 11 到 12 個月的時間提前幾個月恢復生產。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • Okay. And then on the insurance side, so would insurance cover for if the potline stays down for 11, 12 months, will insurance cover fully those 11 to 12 months? Or are there any restrictions?

    好的。那麼在保險方面,如果電解槽生產線停工 11 到 12 個月,保險是否會全額賠償這 11 到 12 個月的費用?或者說,是否有任何限制?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Our expectations today is that our policy limits are high enough that they will cover both the property and business interruption costs of the outage up to and including that 11- to 12-month time line that I gave. Of course, we have deductibles, the deductibles on the policy of $15 million. But above that, we will -- we expect to fully recover the losses.

    是的。我們目前的預期是,我們的保單限額足夠高,可以涵蓋停電造成的財產損失和業務中斷損失,直至我之前提到的 11 至 12 個月期限。當然,我們有免賠額,保單的免賠額為 1500 萬美元。但除此之外,我們預計能夠完全挽回損失。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • Okay. Maybe shifting to Hawesville. When do you think given the extension of the review process, are you think -- is there any time line when you think we could get a final decision?

    好的。或許會搬到霍斯維爾。鑑於審查過程的延長,您認為何時—您認為我們何時才能得到最終決定?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No time line. As I said, we've had a really good process from the beginning. But over the course of Q3, we did have a new surge of interest. And so we decided to then extend that time line to allow that new interest to come in and do some due diligence on the site. It's very positive interest, I'll say. And so we want to give them time, and we're working with them to proceed sort of as quickly as possible, but it's difficult to give an exact time line at this point.

    沒有時間表。正如我所說,從一開始我們就有一個非常好的流程。但在第三季度,我們確實迎來了一波新的關注熱潮。因此,我們決定延長這個期限,以便讓新的潛在買家對網站進行一些盡職調查。可以說,這是一種非常積極的興趣。因此,我們想給他們一些時間,並且我們正在與他們合作,爭取盡快推進,但目前很難給出確切的時間表。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • And does the review still include a potential Restart?

    審查中是否仍包括重啟的可能性?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. As we've always said, our goal here as part of the strategic review process is to see what the interest is in the site and what the potential value of the site is. And then we'll compare that versus the economics of a Restart, and we'll make the best decision for our stakeholders.

    是的。正如我們一直所說,作為策略審查過程的一部分,我們的目標是了解人們對該網站的興趣以及該網站的潛在價值。然後我們會將其與重啟的經濟效益進行比較,並為我們的利害關係人做出最佳決策。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Tumazos, Independent Research.

    John Tumazos,獨立研究員。

  • John Tumazos - Analyst

    John Tumazos - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Of course, it's always hard to predict costs and there's uncertainties in hedging. But given how good things are right now, can you lock in the $110 larger billet premium with contracts, so it's certain next year? Are you able to hedge the Midwest premium that was $0.87 the other day. There are futures. And would you increase your LME metal hedging?

    非常感謝。當然,成本總是難以預測,避險也存在不確定性。但鑑於目前情況如此之好,你能否透過合約鎖定每年高出 110 美元的薪金溢價,從而確保明年也能如此?您能否對沖前幾天0.87美元的中西部溢價?未來是存在的。您會增加倫敦金屬交易所(LME)金屬對沖交易嗎?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, John. No change to our overall hedging policy. So as we've said all along, the main portion of our hedging program, and you can see the details on slide 17 of the presentation, is to offset market power price risk that we have at Sebree. And so as you see from that slide, we've got about 22% of the megawatts for Sebree hedged for fiscal year 2026. And then we'll generally sell a little bit of metal, both Midwest premium and LME against those power price hedges to lock in some margin for Sebree.

    謝謝你,約翰。我們的整體對沖策略不變。正如我們一直以來所說的,我們的對沖計劃的主要部分(您可以在簡報的第 17 頁上看到詳細資訊)是為了抵消我們在 Sebree 所面臨的市場力量價格風險。因此,正如您從該幻燈片中看到的,我們已經為 Sebree 在 2026 財年對沖了約 22% 的兆瓦電力。然後我們通常會賣出一些金屬,包括中西部溢價金屬和倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 金屬,以對沖電力價格,從而為 Sebree 鎖定一些利潤。

  • And the amounts that you see in the appendix are about normal for that program going forward.

    附錄中所列的金額對於該項目未來的發展而言基本上屬於正常水準。

  • Aside from this, we did enter into a little bit of Midwest premium hedging when we made the decision to do the Mt. Holly expansion project and to lock in those returns that we've laid out for you where we expect the cost of that project to be fully repaid by the end of 2026. But other than that, our expectation is to remain exposed to the metal price and to offer that exposure to our shareholders.

    除此之外,我們在決定進行霍利山擴建項目時,也進行了一些中西部溢價對沖,以鎖定我們為您制定的回報,我們預計該項目的成本將在 2026 年底前完全收回。但除此之外,我們預計會繼續持有金屬價格,並將這種投資機會提供給我們的股東。

  • Now John, you did mention billet. In the US, we operate on an annual contract for our billet sales. And so most -- the vast majority of our billet sales in 2026 will be locked in at those prices that I quoted earlier for full year 2026. We do tend to leave a little bit of billet exposed to market prices throughout the year to pick up some spot exposure, but the vast majority of that will be locked in at those premiums that I gave earlier.

    約翰,你剛才確實提到了住宿。在美國,我們的鋼坯銷售採用年度合約制。因此,我們2026年的大部分鋼坯銷售價格將鎖定在我之前提到的2026年全年價格。我們確實傾向於全年保留一部分鋼坯暴露於市場價格,以獲得一些現貨敞口,但絕大部分鋼坯將以我之前提到的溢價鎖定。

  • John Tumazos - Analyst

    John Tumazos - Analyst

  • Jesse, the different news networks were suggesting yesterday that some of the Supreme Court justices might rule against Trump's tariffs. And of course, the 50% aluminum is very helpful to Century. And then 9 of the 23 presidential elections, off-year elections, the President's party has lost 40 to the House of Representative seats since 1934 is playing with political statistics noodling. So there's a chance that things don't stay this well from a regulatory standpoint. Do you think this is a good time to sell the company?

    傑西,昨天各大新聞媒體都暗示,一些最高法院大法官可能會裁定川普的關稅政策無效。當然,50%的鋁含量對世紀公司來說非常有利。然後,在 23 次總統選舉中的 9 次(非選舉年),總統所在的政黨自 1934 年以來在眾議院失去了 40 個席位,這是在玩弄政治統計數據。所以從監管角度來看,情況有可能不會一直這麼好。你認為現在是出售公司的好時機嗎?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • John, this one is pretty clear. The Supreme Court case relates to what are called the IEEPA tariffs or sometimes known as the Reciprocal tariffs only. They do not relate to the Section 232 tariffs, which are where the steel and aluminum tariffs are under. The Section 232 tariffs have already been upheld in court and will not be impacted by the Supreme Court case pending on the IEEPA tariffs.

    約翰,這個很清楚。最高法院的案件僅與所謂的 IEEPA 關稅或有時被稱為互惠關稅有關。它們與第 232 條關稅無關,鋼鐵和鋁的關稅就屬於第 232 條關稅的範疇。第 232 條款關稅已在法庭上維持,不會受到最高法院正在審理的關於 IEEPA 關稅的案件的影響。

  • John Tumazos - Analyst

    John Tumazos - Analyst

  • So let's just say my thesis is wrong. Do you think this is a good time to sell the company anyway?

    那就假設我的論點是錯的吧。你認為現在是出售公司的好時機嗎?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, John, the company is not for sale. We are very excited about our prospects. We're excited about the cash flow generation that were available to show our shareholders. We're excited about our growth opportunities at Mt. Holly with the positive strategic review process, with the greenfield project as well as the increasing demand we're seeing across the United States.

    不,約翰,公司不出售。我們對前景感到非常興奮。我們很高興能夠向股東們展示我們所產生的現金流。我們對 Mt. Holly 的發展機會感到興奮,這得益於積極的策略評估流程、新建專案以及我們在美國各地看到的不斷增長的需求。

  • So our focus is really we're going to continue to try to produce aluminum as profitably as possible, supply units into the US and European markets and continue to execute on our strategic plan.

    因此,我們的重點仍然是盡可能盈利地生產鋁,向美國和歐洲市場供應產品,並繼續執行我們的戰略計劃。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

    Nick Giles,B. Riley Securities。

  • Fedor Shabalin - Equity Analyst

    Fedor Shabalin - Equity Analyst

  • This is Fedor again. My question is kind of a continuation of John's topic. So the (inaudible) have been indicating very, very tight domestic inventories, which has supported stronger Midwest pricing. So -- and if prices continue to strengthen, do you think that could influence the administration's decision to keep 232 in place with no exclusions? And then on the other side, if we saw a Canadian exclusion, for instance, how do you think about Midwest premium?

    我是費多爾。我的問題算是約翰話題的延續。因此,(聽不清楚)顯示國內庫存非常非常緊張,這支撐了中西部地區價格走強。那麼——如果物價繼續走強,你認為這會影響政府維持第 232 號法令不變的決定嗎?另一方面,如果我們看到加拿大被排除在外,例如,您如何看待中西部地區的保費?

  • I know that Canada is not a marginal (inaudible) into the US, but I have to imagine there would be some downside risk.

    我知道加拿大對美國來說並非邊緣(聽不清楚),但我認為其中肯定存在一些下行風險。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Fedor, I think it's important to step back and look at the purpose of the Section 232 tariffs, which was to increase US domestic aluminum production to meet national security needs. And when we look at the program and the response of industry, it's really doing just that, and Century is proud to be doing its part.

    費多爾,我認為重要的是要退後一步,看看第 232 條款關稅的目的,即增加美國國內鋁產量以滿足國家安全需求。當我們審視該計劃和行業的反應時,就會發現它確實做到了這一點,而 Century 也為能盡自己的一份力而感到自豪。

  • So just to name a few of those projects that are coming online, the Mt. Holly Restart project that we're implementing and will be up by mid next year will, by itself, increase US production by 10% from levels today. So that's a significant increase.

    僅舉幾個即將上線的項目為例,我們正在實施的 Mt. Holly Restart 項目將於明年年中投入使用,該項目本身將使美國的產量比目前的水平提高 10%。所以這是一個顯著的成長。

  • And then we've announced our own greenfield project and one of our competitors has announced their own greenfield project and together, along with the Mt. Holly Restart, that would triple US aluminum production by 2030. So I think that the tariffs are working as intended. They're driving industry to reinvest in adding production here in the United States and adding American aluminum jobs here in the United States.

    然後,我們宣布了自己的綠地項目,我們的一個競爭對手也宣布了自己的綠地項目,加上 Mt. Holly Restart 項目,到 2030 年,美國的鋁產量將增加兩倍。所以我認為關稅措施正在按預期發揮作用。他們正在推動工業界重新投資,在美國增加生產,並在美國增加鋁業就業機會。

  • So the program seems to be working. And I think the administration has been quite clear that they'll continue to do their part and keep the tariffs in place with no exemptions and no exceptions going forward.

    看來程式運作正常。我認為政府已經非常明確地表示,他們將繼續盡自己的一份力量,維持關稅不變,不設任何豁免或例外。

  • Fedor Shabalin - Equity Analyst

    Fedor Shabalin - Equity Analyst

  • And promise, if you allow me to squeeze the last one. It was great to see new power agreement with Santee Cooper for Mt. Holly, where you have cost of service-based rates. And I wanted to ask about Sebree, where you're exposed to Indy Hub. What is the appetite to book incremental hedges for '26 and '27, especially given the expectations for increased electricity demand from data centers in this region?

    如果你允許我擠掉最後一個,就答應我。很高興看到與 Santee Cooper 就 Mt. Holly 達成新的電力協議,該協議採用基於服務成本的費率。我想問關於 Sebree 的情況,在那裡你可以接觸到 Indy Hub。鑑於該地區資料中心電力需求預計將會增加,那麼對於 2026 年和 2027 年,投資者對新增對沖合約的意願如何?

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, we also were very excited about the Mt. Holly contract. That's a very long extension for us, gives us very good line of sight into next decade and was one of the keys in enabling us to Restart production there. So we're really excited about what's to come at Mt. Holly, very good smelter, very profitable in today's environment.

    是的,我們也對芒特霍利合約感到非常興奮。這對我們來說是一個非常長的延期,讓我們對下一個十年有了非常清晰的展望,也是我們能夠在那裡重啟生產的關鍵因素之一。所以我們對芒特霍利的未來感到非常興奮,這是一個非常好的冶煉廠,在當今環境下非常有利可圖。

  • At Sebree, likewise, the plant is operating excellent. We continue to invest in that plant. And we've been operating now under this market-based power contract for over a decade. And we've become very comfortable with the way it works. And we think over time, it's been the most cost-effective power contract actually that we have in our entire system.

    同樣,塞布里工廠的運作狀況也非常好。我們將繼續投資該工廠。十多年來,我們一直按照這種基於市場的電力合約進行營運。我們已經非常適應這種運作方式了。我們認為,從長遠來看,這實際上是我們整個系統中最具成本效益的電力合約。

  • Now as I mentioned earlier, we do some risk mitigation with that, and we've generally been hedging those power prices about 20% to 30% of our exposure on an annual basis. And we think that's a pretty good percentage of the overall power risk for us to lay off and puts the smelter in a good place to continue to be profitable and operate well through the cycles. So we're comfortable with that hedging program at that level. Of course, we'll always be looking and opportunistic, but we expect to continue our hedging programs as we have in the past as we move forward.

    正如我之前提到的,我們對此進行了一些風險緩解措施,我們通常每年都會對沖約 20% 至 30% 的風險敞口所對應的電力價格。我們認為裁員可以很好地降低整體電力風險,使冶煉廠能夠繼續獲利,並在周期中運作良好。所以我們對目前的對沖方案感到滿意。當然,我們會一直保持觀察和把握機會的態度,但我們預計會像過去一樣繼續實施我們的避險計畫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are currently no questions at this time. So I'll pass it back over to management for any closing or further remarks.

    目前暫無問題。所以我會把這件事交還給管理階層,讓他們做最後的總結或補充說明。

  • Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jesse Gary - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, everyone, for joining the call. At Century, we're really excited about the end to 2025 and what's to come in 2026, and we'll continue to execute to the best of our abilities. Thanks all. Look forward to talking to everyone in February.

    感謝各位參加此通話。世紀集團對 2025 年的結束以及 2026 年的到來感到非常興奮,我們將繼續竭盡全力實現目標。謝謝大家。期待二月能和大家見面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。