Century Aluminum Co (CENX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and thank you for attending the Century Aluminum Company Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings conference call. My name is Matt and I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，感謝您參加世紀鋁業公司2023年第四季財報電話會議。我叫馬特，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。（操作員說明）

I will now pass the conference over to our host, Ryan Crawford with Century Aluminum. Brian, please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給我們的東道主，世紀鋁業公司的瑞安·克勞福德 (Ryan Crawford)。布萊恩，請繼續。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; Jerry Bialek, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer.

大家下午好，歡迎參加電話會議。今天，世紀公司總裁兼執行長傑西·加里 (Jesse Gary) 也加入了我的行列。 Jerry Bialek，執行副總裁兼財務長；財務資深副總裁兼財務長 Peter Trpkovski。

After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company, and for complying with Regulation FD.

在我們準備好意見後，我們將回答您的問題。請注意，今天的簡報可在我們的網站 www. centuryaluminum.com 上取得。我們使用我們的網站作為揭露有關公司的重要資訊並遵守 FD 法規的一種方式。

Turning to slide 1, please take a moment to review the cautionary statements shown here, with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures contained in today's discussion. And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

轉向投影片 1，請花點時間回顧此處顯示的關於今天討論中包含的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標的警告性陳述。這樣，我就把電話轉給傑西。

Thanks, Ryan. Thanks to everyone for joining. I'll start today by quickly reviewing our 2023 performance before turning to the current macroenvironment and the dynamic operating conditions we are working through in Q1.

謝謝，瑞安。感謝大家的加入。今天，我將首先快速回顧我們 2023 年的業績，然後再轉向當前的宏觀環境和我們在第一季正在經歷的動態營運條件。

Jerry will then take you through the details of the fourth quarter results and Q1 outlook, and then I'll finish with an update on the Inflation Reduction Act, potential further benefits that we expect to receive.

然後，傑裡將向您介紹第四季度業績和第一季度前景的詳細信息，然後我將介紹《通貨膨脹削減法案》的最新情況以及我們期望獲得的潛在進一步好處。

Turning to slide 3. Market conditions remained volatile last year, reflecting a seemingly new normal we have experienced post-COVID where a broadly balanced global supply and demand picture for aluminum is paired with historically low levels of inventories. Tight global inventories, along with rising and dynamic geopolitical tensions, has created a market where small changes in market conditions are driving outsized effects on aluminum prices.

轉到投影片 3。去年市場狀況依然波動，反映出新冠疫情後我們經歷的看似新常態，即全球鋁供需情勢基本平衡，庫存水準處於歷史低點。全球庫存緊張，加上不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢，造成市場狀況的微小變化對鋁價產生巨大影響。

Despite this continued volatility, Century produced adjusted EBITDA of $120 million in 2023, including $57 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4, reflecting the impact of our 2023 Inflation Reduction Act advanced manufacturing credit. Jerry will give you the full details here in a bit.

儘管持續波動，Century 2023 年調整後 EBITDA 仍達到 1.2 億美元，其中第四季度調整後 EBITDA 為 5,700 萬美元，反映了我們 2023 年通膨削減法案先進製造業信貸的影響。傑瑞稍後會向您提供完整的詳細資訊。

Our team completed several strategic projects last year, including the acquisition of our 55% share in Jamalco, completing our long-held ambitions to secure captive supply of high-quality alumina and bauxite for our smelters to create a more balanced, consistent, and robust operational footprint, and better position us to deliver strong performance through commodity cycles. Returning this asset to its full potential will continue to be one of our main priorities in 2024.

我們的團隊去年完成了多個策略項目，包括收購Jamalco 55% 的股份，實現了我們長期以來的目標，即為我們的冶煉廠確保高品質氧化鋁和鋁土礦的自備供應，以創造更加平衡、一致和穩健的局面營運足跡，並使我們能夠更好地在整個商品週期中提供強勁的業績。讓這項資產充分發揮潛力仍將是我們 2024 年的主要優先事項之一。

Finally, we continue to focus on our most important priority -- to return our employees home safely at the end of each and every day. While we will never be satisfied until we achieve zero workplace injuries, our teams should be proud to have reduced injuries by 20% over 2022 levels. We hope to significantly improve on this trend in the coming year.

最後，我們繼續專注於最重要的優先事項——每天結束時讓員工安全回家。雖然我們永遠不會滿足於實現零工傷，但我們的團隊應該感到自豪，因為工傷比 2022 年減少了 20%。我們希望來年能顯著改善這一趨勢。

Market conditions for Century's businesses continue to reflect uncertain macroeconomic conditions in much of the world. As you can see on slide 4, global supply and demand remain roughly balanced and global inventories remain near all-time lows. The driving forces behind these balanced markets, however, are much more dynamic than years past, and reflect the complexity of the current market.

Century 業務的市場狀況持續反映出世界大部分地區不確定的宏觀經濟狀況。正如您在投影片 4 中看到的那樣，全球供需保持大致平衡，全球庫存仍接近歷史低點。然而，這些平衡市場背後的驅動力比過去幾年更具活力，反映了當前市場的複雜性。

Supply was largely constrained over the past year. In China growth was limited by their 45 million ton capacity cap, and continued curtailments in Yunnan and surrounding provinces. Western supply also remained challenged over the past year by a difficult demand picture that ultimately led to the curtailment of two more western smelters in Neuss, Germany, and New Madrid, Missouri.

去年供應在很大程度上受到限制。在中國，成長受到 4,500 萬噸產能上限以及雲南及週邊省份持續限產的限制。去年，西方供應仍受到需求情況嚴峻的挑戰，最終導致德國諾伊斯和密蘇裡州新馬德里的另外兩家西方冶煉廠被削減。

A bit further east, Russian metal continues to be disfavored in western markets, where Russian metal today constitutes 90% of all LME inventories. There have been increasing calls for Russian aluminum sanctions in the EU and US following the initial implementation of a 200% tariff on Russian products into the US, and an EU ban on certain downstream Russian aluminum products into the EU.

再往東一點，俄羅斯金屬在西方市場仍然不受青睞，目前俄羅斯金屬佔 LME 所有庫存的 90%。隨著俄羅斯產品進入美國初步實施200%關稅，以及歐盟禁止某些下游俄羅斯鋁產品進入歐盟，歐盟和美國要求制裁俄羅斯鋁產品的呼聲越來越高。

On the demand side, western world demand appears to have reached a low in Q3, driven by continued destocking across downstream users and challenging EU industrial growth. The market saw increased demand in Q4, and we now expect an improved and growing western demand equation in 2024.

在需求方面，由於下游用戶持續去庫存以及歐盟工業成長面臨挑戰，西方世界的需求似乎在第三季達到了低點。第四季市場需求增加，我們現在預計 2024 年西方需求方程式將得到改善和成長。

Overall, we expect that western demand will return to its long-term growth rates, as falling interest rates and improve GDP growth returns to the US and EU markets and the Inflation Reduction Act, and similar spending programs in the EU and elsewhere, continue to drive increased aluminum demand in automotive and renewable energy applications.

總體而言，我們預計西方需求將恢復到長期成長率，因為美國和歐盟市場的利率下降和 GDP 成長有所改善，而《通貨膨脹削減法案》以及歐盟和其他地區的類似支出計畫將繼續實施。推動汽車和再生能源應用中鋁需求的成長。

The largest demand-side story in 2023, however, was the strength of the Chinese market where we saw Chinese demand growth of 5% in 2023, and expect to see similarly high growth rates this year. We estimate that the Chinese market imported about 1.3 million tons of non-Chinese production last year, and we expect that to expand further as this year.

然而，2023 年最大的需求面故事是中國市場的強勁，我們預計 2023 年中國需求將成長 5%，並預計今年將出現類似的高成長率。我們估計去年中國市場進口了約130萬噸非中國產品，預計今年將進一步擴大。

Chinese demand growth has been driven by the broad macro trends we have long expected, namely in aluminum intensive electric vehicles, and renewable energy applications. We expect demand growth in these areas to continue to accelerate this year, both in China and the west.

中國的需求成長是由我們長期以來預期的宏觀趨勢所推動的，即鋁密集型電動車和再生能源應用。我們預計今年這些領域的需求成長將持續加速，無論是中國還是西方。

As we've discussed over the course of the past year, billet demand in the US and Europe has been a relatively weak point in the market as post-pandemic destocking continued and increased imports of extrusions into both markets, decreased domestic billet demand.

正如我們在過去一年中討論的那樣，美國和歐洲的方坯需求一直是市場上相對疲軟的點，因為疫情後去庫存的持續進行以及兩個市場擠壓材進口的增加，國內方坯需求的減少。

Due to the annual contract structure for billets in the US, we were somewhat insulated from this downturn in 2023 by higher annual contract prices set in late 2022. Unfortunately, demand conditions for billets in both the US and Europe remained weak in Q4 and into Q1 of this year, which created a headwind in our 2024 billet contract negotiations and lead to lower pricing that we expect will impact our Q1 results by around $10 million from Q4 levels.

由於美國方坯的年度合約結構，我們在 2022 年底設定的年度合約價格較高，因此在 2023 年免受了這次經濟低迷的影響。不幸的是，美國和歐洲的方坯需求狀況在今年第四季和第一季仍然疲軟，這給我們的2024 年方坯合約談判帶來了阻力，並導致定價下降，我們預計這將對我們第一季的業績產生約1000 萬美元的影響從第四季度的水平來看。

Despite these near-term headwinds, we continue to anticipate very constructive long-term billet demand trends in both the US and Europe, as automotive lightweighting and renewable energy applications drive increasing aluminum consumption. We expect this trend to support significant long-term demand expansion for primary aluminum billet and slab in the EU and US.

儘管有這些近期不利因素，但我們仍預期美國和歐洲的方坯長期需求趨勢非常有建設性，因為汽車輕量化和再生能源應用將推動鋁消費量的增加。我們預計這一趨勢將支持歐盟和美國對原始鋁方坯和板坯的長期需求大幅擴張。

In addition, as you can see on slide 7, we expect that the pending US antidumping countervailing duty trade case against extrusion imports from 14 countries will have a significantly positive impact on domestic US. billet demand beginning in the second half of 2024. In August, the US aluminum extrusion industry filed suit alleging dumping and illegal subsidies by countries constituting over 68% of extrusion imports, and over 27% of total US extrusion demand.

此外，正如您在投影片 7 中看到的，我們預計美國針對 14 個國家的擠壓材進口的反傾銷反補貼稅貿易案懸而未決，將對美國國內產生顯著的正面影響。方坯需求將於 2024 年下半年開始。8月，美國鋁擠型產業提起訴訟，指控佔鋁擠進口總量68%以上、占美國鋁擠型總需求27%以上的國家有傾銷和非法補貼。

The US International Trade Commission has already determined there's an indication of material injury to the US industry, and in March and May of this year, the US Department of Commerce is expected to rule on the preliminary implementation of anti-dumping and countervailing duties against the subject of imports. If implemented, the duties wouldn't immediately go into effect, and are expected to have a material impact on the US extrusion and billet markets.

美國國際貿易委員會已認定美國產業存在實質損害跡象，預計美國商務部將在今年3月和5月就對進口產品徵收反傾銷和反補貼稅作出初步裁決。進口的對象。如果實施，這些關稅不會立即生效，預計將對美國擠壓和方坯市場產生重大影響。

This is an example -- when antidumping duties were first placed on aluminum extrusions from China in 2011, imports to subject extrusions from China immediately dropped to almost zero due to the significant relief provided by the antidumping and countervailing duties and the domestic industry accordingly took back significant market share. We would expect a similar impact from this case if duties are leveled in March and May, meaning that 27% of domestic extrusion demand currently met by the subject imports would have to be served by increased US extrusion production and a corresponding increase in US billet demand.

舉個例子，2011年首次對來自中國的鋁型材徵收反傾銷稅時，由於反傾銷和反補貼稅的大幅減免，來自中國的受控鋁型材的進口立即幾乎為零，國內產業相應地收回了關稅。顯著的市佔率。我們預計，如果在3 月和5 月調整關稅，本案也會產生類似的影響，這意味著目前由相關進口產品滿足的27% 的國內擠壓需求將不得不通過美國擠壓產量的增加以及美國方坯需求的相應增加來滿足。 。

While we are not direct participants in the case, we have reviewed the case in detail, and believe it is strong on the merits. If successful, the AD/CVD duties would benefit spot billet premiums in the second half of 2024, and we have accordingly let more of our second half billet volumes open to potentially benefit from the higher pricing environment. The AD/CVD duties would remain in place for at least five years, driving increased US billet demand across the period and beyond.

雖然我們不是該案的直接參與者，但我們已經詳細審查了該案，並相信該案的案情是充分的。如果成功，AD/CVD 關稅將有利於 2024 年下半年現貨方坯溢價，因此我們已釋放更多下半年方坯銷量，以潛在受益於較高的定價環境。AD/CVD 關稅將持續至少五年，推動美國方坯需求在此期間及以後的成長。

Turning to operations, we saw a strong and stable performance across our smelters in Q4, while the Jamalco refinery continued to recover from the energy related disruptions suffered in late September. We now expect that some of the production and cost efficiencies that we had expected to Jamalco in Q1 will instead begin in Q2.

談到運營，我們看到第四季度我們的冶煉廠表現強勁且穩定，而 Jamalco 煉油廠繼續從 9 月底遭受的能源相關中斷中恢復。現在，我們預計 Jamalco 在第一季的部分生產和成本效率將在第二季開始。

In Iceland, a relatively dry and cold winter has led to water levels in the nation's hydro scheme falling below normal levels, and the energy companies have accordingly issued partial curtailment orders across certain industrial customers, including our Grundartangi smelter. These curtailments first began in early December, and are expected to reduce Grundartangi's energy consumption by approximately 20 megawatts -- about 3% of our total load.

在冰島，相對乾燥和寒冷的冬季導致該國水力發電計劃的水位低於正常水平，能源公司相應地向包括我們的Grundartangi冶煉廠在內的某些工業客戶發出了部分限電令。這些限電措施於 12 月初首次開始，預計將使 Grundartangi 的能源消耗減少約 20 兆瓦，約佔總負載的 3%。

We expect that the curtailment will finish by the end of April, but this remains subject to weather patterns and reservoir levels in Iceland. Based on the scheduled curtailment end date, we expect the curtailments will reduce Grundartangi's 2024 production by approximately 3,500 metric tons. This impact is included in our Q1 and full year volume guidance. It also impacted our Q4 production levels, and you can see the impact in the volume column on our bridge on Page 9.

我們預計限電將於四月底完成，但這仍取決於冰島的天氣模式和水庫水位。根據預定的減產結束日期，我們預計減產將使 Grundartangi 2024 年的產量減少約 3,500 噸。這種影響已包含在我們的第一季和全年銷售指引中。它也影響了我們第四季度的生產水平，您可以在第 9 頁橋上的產量欄中看到影響。

Finishing out the energy picture, energy prices in the US have generally been constructive, driven by mostly moderate winter and natural gas prices near $2. A nationwide mid-January cold snap did drive about a week of very high US power prices, which we expect to have a negative impact of about $5 million in Q1. Other than this week of very cold weather, power prices have been very constructive. And the power price forwards have fallen significantly since the cold snap reflecting the low natural gas price.

最後，在冬季基本溫和且天然氣價格接近 2 美元的推動下，美國能源價格總體上具有建設性。1 月中旬全國範圍內的寒流確實導緻美國電價持續上漲約一周，我們預計這將對第一季度產生約 500 萬美元的負面影響。除了本週天氣非常寒冷之外，電價一直非常有建設性。自寒流以來，遠期電價大幅下跌，反映出天然氣價格較低。

On the raw materials side, we've begun to see many of our raw material imports begin to return towards historical pre-pandemic price levels, with coke, [pitch], and caustic soda prices have been most significantly downward over the past couple of months.

在原材料方面，我們已經開始看到我們的許多原材料進口開始恢復到大流行前的歷史價格水平，其中焦炭、瀝青和燒鹼的價格在過去幾年中下降最為顯著。幾個月。

Due to our contractual and physical inventory lags, the benefits of these price decreases will take some time to roll through our results, which Jerry will give you a bit more detail on. We do expect coke prices, especially, to continue to moderate further over the course of this year.

由於我們的合約和實體庫存滯後，這些價格下降的好處將需要一些時間才能體現出來，傑瑞將為您提供更多詳細資訊。我們確實預計今年焦炭價格將繼續進一步放緩。

Finally, in light of the currently suppressed demand environment, we've implemented a new cost control program designed to lower our spending while aluminum prices remain depressed. We, of course, have executed similar programs in the past, and we are confident that we will be able to reduce costs and also our cash spending during this period.

最後，鑑於當前需求受到抑制的環境，我們實施了一項新的成本控制計劃，旨在在鋁價持續低迷的情況下降低支出。當然，我們過去也執行過類似的計劃，我們有信心在此期間能夠降低成本和現金支出。

Jerry is leading this initiative for us and we'll provide you with the details. In light of this environment and long supply chains, we continue to work on our Mount Holly restart plans, but do not expect that we will have any significant capital or cash requirements for the restart over the course of 2024.

傑瑞（Jerry）正在為我們領導這項計劃，我們將為您提供詳細資訊。鑑於這種環境和漫長的供應鏈，我們將繼續制定 Mount Holly 重啟計劃，但預計 2024 年重啟不會有任何重大資本或現金需求。

Jerry will now walk you through the quarter and our Q1 outlook.

傑瑞現在將向您介紹本季和我們對第一季的展望。

Thank you Jesse. Let's turn to Slide 8 to review fourth quarter results. On a consolidated basis, fourth quarter global shipments were nearly 174,000 tons, up 1% sequentially realized prices, however, decreased substantially versus prior quarter, due primarily to significantly lower lagged LME prices and delivery premiums, resulting in net sales of $512 million -- a 6% decrease sequentially.

謝謝傑西。讓我們轉向幻燈片 8 來回顧第四季度的業績。綜合來看，第四季全球出貨量近174,000 噸，實現價格環比上漲1%，但與上一季相比大幅下降，主要是由於LME 滯後價格和交割溢價大幅下降，淨銷售額為5.12 億美元——季減 6%。

Looking at Q4 operating results, adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century was $57 million -- an improvement of $40 million compared with the third quarter. During the period we recorded a full year benefit of $59 million related to the Inflation Reduction Act Advanced Manufacturing Credit, Section 45X. Adjusted net income was $40 million or $0.39 per share.

從第四季的經營業績來看，世紀公司調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,700 萬美元，比第三季增加了 4,000 萬美元。在此期間，我們記錄了與《通貨膨脹減少法案》先進製造信貸第 45X 條相關的全年收益 5,900 萬美元。調整後淨利為 4000 萬美元，即每股 0.39 美元。

The major adjusting items were add-backs of $7 million in costs related to the Jamalco equipment failure, $3 million for the unrealized impacts of forward contracts, and $1 million for share-based compensation. We had strong liquidity of $312 million at the end of the quarter, consisting of $89 million in cash and $223 million available on our credit facilities.

主要調整項目是加回 700 萬美元與 Jamalco 設備故障相關的成本，300 萬美元用於遠期合約的未實現影響，以及 100 萬美元用於股權補償。截至本季末，我們擁有 3.12 億美元的強勁流動性，其中包括 8,900 萬美元現金和 2.23 億美元可用信貸額度。

Turning to slide 9 to explain the $48 million fourth quarter sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA, in total, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $57 million. Realized lagged LME prices and delivery premiums were significantly lower in the quarter. Realized LME of $2,182 per ton was down $55 versus prior quarter, while realized US Midwest premium of $425 per ton was down $68, and European delivery premium of $280 per ton was down $44.

轉向幻燈片 9，解釋第四季度調整後 EBITDA 連續改善 4800 萬美元，第四季度調整後 EBITDA 總計為 5700 萬美元。本季倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 的實際滯後價格和交割溢價顯著降低。LME 實現的每噸 2,182 美元的溢價較上一季度下降了 55 美元，而美國中西部實現的溢價為每噸 425 美元，下降了 68 美元，歐洲交割溢價為每噸 280 美元，下降了 44 美元。

Together, these factors amounted to a $19 million headwind in the quarter. Power cost increased by $1 million. Realized alumina cost was $382 per tonne, $13 lower on a sequential basis. Realized coke prices decreased 9% and realized pitch prices decreased 5%. Remember there is a three to four month lag for alumina, coke, and pitch costs to work through our income statement.

這些因素合計在本季造成了 1,900 萬美元的不利影響。電力成本增加了 100 萬美元。氧化鋁實際成本為每噸 382 美元，季減 13 美元。焦炭實際價格下降 9%，瀝青實際價格下降 5%。請記住，我們的損益表中氧化鋁、焦炭和瀝青成本的計算存在三到四個月的滯後期。

Together, alumina and other raw material costs resulted in a $14 million improvement in EBITDA. Volume OpEx and premiums mix were headwinds of $2 million and $3 million, respectively. And as I said earlier, during the period, we recorded a full year benefit of $59 million related to the IRA advanced manufacturing credit.

氧化鋁和其他原料成本合計使 EBITDA 提高了 1,400 萬美元。批量營運支出和保費組合分別是 200 萬美元和 300 萬美元的阻力。正如我之前所說，在此期間，我們與 IRA 先進製造信貸相關的全年收益為 5,900 萬美元。

For additional clarity, the IRA credit was calculated as 10% of production costs incurred, excluding direct and indirect material costs. Note the Department of Treasury is still considering including direct and indirect material as eligible costs. Jesse will elaborate further in his closing remarks.

為了進一步明確起見，IRA 抵免額按所產生的生產成本的 10% 計算，不包括直接和間接材料成本。請注意，財政部仍在考慮將直接和間接材料納入合格成本。傑西將在結語中進一步闡述。

With that, let's turn to slide 10 for a look at cash flow. We began the quarter with $93 million in cash and in December with $89 million. Capital expenditures totaled $30 million -- $22 million of which relates to the Grundartangi casthouse project.

接下來，讓我們轉向投影片 10 看一下現金流。本季初我們的現金為 9,300 萬美元，12 月份現金為 8,900 萬美元。資本支出總計 3000 萬美元，其中 2200 萬美元涉及 Grundartangi 鑄造廠項目。

Semi-annual interest payments were $13 million, and net debt repayments were $30 million. Working capital and other items contributed $68 million. We continue to maintain our focus on optimizing working capital. But as I mentioned last quarter, some of these savings are related to the timing of material flows, which may reverse in subsequent quarters.

半年度利息支付為 1,300 萬美元，淨債務償還額為 3,000 萬美元。營運資金和其他項目貢獻了 6800 萬美元。我們繼續專注於優化營運資本。但正如我上個季度提到的，其中一些節省與物質流動的時間有關，這可能會在隨後的幾個季度中逆轉。

Let's turn to slide 11, and I'll give you some insight into our expectations for the first quarter of 2024. For Q1, the lagged LME of $2,190 per ton is expected to be up about $8 versus Q4 realized prices. The Q1 lagged US Midwest premium is forecast to be $416 per ton, down $9. The European delivery premium is expected at $222 per ton, or down about $58 per ton versus the fourth quarter, but we have seen improvement in EDPP in recent weeks, with pricing earlier this week at nearly $250 per ton.

讓我們轉向投影片 11，我將向您介紹我們對 2024 年第一季的預期。第一季度，滯後的 LME 價格為每噸 2,190 美元，預計將比第四季的實際價格上漲約 8 美元。第一季美國中西部滯後溢價預計為每噸 416 美元，下跌 9 美元。歐洲交貨溢價預計為每噸 222 美元，比第四季度每噸下降約 58 美元，但近幾週我們看到 EDPP 有所改善，本週早些時候的定價接近每噸 250 美元。

Taken together, the LME and delivery premium changes are expected to decrease Q1 EBITDA by approximately $2 million versus Q4 levels. We expect power prices to be flat quarter over quarter, despite a $5 million negative impact from the January cold snap.

總的來說，LME 和交割溢價的變化預計將導致第一季 EBITDA 較第四季水準減少約 200 萬美元。儘管一月份的寒流造成了 500 萬美元的負面影響，但我們預計電價將環比持平。

Looking at our key raw materials, lagged realized alumina cost is expected to be about flat. We expect a favorable impact from lower coke and pitch prices. Caustic soda prices are trending down, as I'd like to remind you that it takes five to six months for caustic spot prices to flow through our P&L.

從我們的主要原料來看，滯後的氧化鋁實際成本預計將持平。我們預計焦炭和瀝青價格下降將產生有利影響。燒鹼價格呈下降趨勢，我想提醒您，燒鹼現貨價格需要五到六個月的時間才能反映在我們的損益表中。

All in, we expect lower raw material costs to contribute $5 million to $10 million to EBITDA. The weak billet demand has driven value added premiums down. We therefore expect about a $10 million VAT impact to EBITDA in Q1. We expect volume to be a slight headwind given the power curtailment imposed on our Grundartangi facility.

總而言之，我們預計原料成本的降低將為 EBITDA 貢獻 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元。方坯需求疲軟導致增值溢價下降。因此，我們預計第一季增值稅對 EBITDA 的影響約為 1000 萬美元。鑑於我們的 Grundartangi 工廠限電，我們預計銷量將略有下降。

Finally, we expect OpEx to contribute $5 million EBITDA in Q1. As Jesse highlighted in his opening comments, we have developed a robust playbook aimed at navigating the current demand landscape by effectively managing costs and preserving cash flow.

最後，我們預計第一季營運支出將貢獻 500 萬美元的 EBITDA。正如傑西在開場白中所強調的那樣，我們制定了一個強大的劇本，旨在透過有效管理成本和保留現金流來應對當前的需求格局。

We actively identify areas for efficiency enhancement; exercise prudence in discretionary expenditures; and diligently pursue cost reduction initiatives, all in pursuit of establishing a sustainable and financially sound operational framework. All factors considered, our outlook for Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in a range of between $5 million to $15 million.

我們積極尋找提高效率的領域；謹慎開支可自由支配的開支；並努力推行降低成本舉措，所有這些都是為了建立一個可持續且財務健全的營運框架。考慮到所有因素，我們對第一季調整後 EBITDA 的展望預計在 500 萬美元至 1500 萬美元之間。

From a hedge impact standpoint, we expect no impact in the first quarter. As we have very limited hedges in place. We expect tax expense of approximately $0 to $5 million. As a reminder, both of these items fall below EBITDA and impact adjusted net income.

從對沖影響的角度來看，我們預計第一季不會受到影響。因為我們的對沖措施非常有限。我們預計稅收費用約為 0 至 500 萬美元。提醒一下，這兩項都低於 EBITDA 和影響調整後淨利。

Now referring to slide 17, for full year 2024 financial assumptions. We expect shipments to be flat compared to 2023. In line with our objective to conserve cash, we are managing spending very deliberately. We do expect to invest approximately $10 million to 15 million in sustaining CapEx, and about $10 million to $15 million in Jamalco.

現在參考投影片 17，了解 2024 年全年財務假設。我們預計出貨量將與 2023 年持平。根據我們節省現金的目標，我們非常謹慎地管理支出。我們預計將投資約 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元用於維持資本支出，並向 Jamalco 投資約 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。

In addition, investment of approximately $15 million to $20 million remains on our [rising cast house] project, which will be funded in Q1 from our dedicated Grundartangi cast house credit facility. The impact of the hedge book will vary with market conditions throughout the year, but to assist with anticipating these impacts on a go-forward basis, we have updated our previously reviewed financial hedge landscape, which can be found on page 19 and the index.

此外，我們的[崛起鑄造廠]項目仍有約 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的投資，該項目將在第一季由我們專門的 Grundartangi 鑄造廠信貸機構提供資金。對沖帳簿的影響將隨著全年市場狀況的變化而變化，但為了幫助預測未來的這些影響，我們更新了先前審查的金融對沖環境，可以在第 19 頁和指數中找到。

Note, we have no remaining Nord Pool exposure in 2024. And now I'll turn the call back back over to Jesse.

請注意，我們沒有 2024 年剩餘的 Nord Pool 風險敞口。現在我將把電話轉回給傑西。

Thanks, Jerry. If you turn to page 12, I'd like to finish with some additional discussion regarding Section 45X and our expected benefits thereunder. As we discussed in December, the proposed regulations clarified many aspects of the law., but Treasury asked for comments on several others while specifically highlighting the important role the critical minerals like aluminum play in the renewable energy and energy storage industry.

謝謝，傑瑞。如果您翻到第 12 頁，我想以一些有關第 45X 節以及我們根據該節獲得的預期好處的額外討論作為結束。正如我們在12 月討論的那樣，擬議的法規澄清了法律的許多方面，但財政部要求對其他幾個方面發表評論，同時特別強調鋁等關鍵礦物在可再生能源和儲能行業中發揮的重要作用。

First and foremost, the proposed regulations confirmed the application of Section 45X to substantially all of Century's primary aluminum production in the United States. The proposed regulations also clarified that eligible costs that qualify for the 10% credit are to be construed broadly to include all costs incurred by the producer in the production of the critical minerals, other than certain direct and indirect material costs.

首先也是最重要的是，擬議法規確認第 45X 條適用於 Century 在美國的幾乎所有原鋁生產。擬議法規還澄清，符合 10% 抵免額的合格成本應廣義地解釋為包括生產商在關鍵礦物生產中產生的所有成本，某些直接和間接材料成本除外。

Importantly, the Treasury Department also specifically notes that it is still considering adding direct and indirect material costs, as eligible costs under Section 45X, and requested comments regarding how such costs should be treated for purposes of the critical minerals tax credit. We are discussing with Treasury the essential nature of these materials, and the significant associated costs as indeed it would not be possible to produce US aluminum without materials like alumina and carbon anodes.

重要的是，財政部還特別指出，它仍在考慮增加直接和間接材料成本，作為第 45X 條規定的合格成本，並要求就如何處理此類成本以實現關鍵礦產稅收抵免提供意見。我們正在與財政部討論這些材料的本質，以及龐大的相關成本，因為如果沒有氧化鋁和碳陽極等材料，美國就不可能生產鋁。

Our position is in line with the broad set of industry participants, ranging from the critical mineral producers to our downstream customers, including automotive companies seeking to ensure stable domestic supply chains. Overall, there seems to be broad consensus amongst industry and consumers such costs should be eligible for the tax credit, and we are very hopeful that they will ultimately be included as eligible costs.

我們的立場與廣泛的行業參與者一致，從關鍵礦產生產商到我們的下游客戶，包括尋求確保穩定的國內供應鏈的汽車公司。總體而言，產業和消費者似乎達成了廣泛共識，此類成本應該有資格獲得稅收抵免，我們非常希望它們最終能夠被納入合格成本。

Importantly, Senator Manchin along with several of his colleagues recently submitted comments to Treasury, knowing that their intent as drafters, was for the direct and indirect material costs to be eligible, and they called on treasury to expeditiously revise the regulations accordingly.

重要的是，參議員曼欽和他的幾位同事最近向財政部提交了評論，他們知道他們作為起草者的意圖是讓直接和間接材料成本符合資格，他們呼籲財政部迅速相應地修改法規。

If direct and indirect material costs are ultimately added as eligible costs under 45X, we would expect to recognize an additional annual benefit of $50 million to $55 million for 2023, and similar annual amounts for 2024 and going forward. Any potential increases in future production would also be eligible for the production tax credit, and would be expected to increase our annual benefit on a roughly pro rata basis to the amount of increased production.

如果直接和間接材料成本最終作為 45X 下的合格成本添加，我們預計將在 2023 年實現 5,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元的額外年度收益，並在 2024 年及以後實現類似的年度收益。未來產量的任何潛在增加也將有資格獲得生產稅收抵免，並且預計將根據產量增加量大致按比例增加我們的年度效益。

We will continue to update you as we receive more guidance from the Treasury Department. We look forward to your questions today, and we'll turn the call over now to the operator.

當我們收到財政部的更多指導時，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。我們期待您今天​​提出問題，我們現在會將電話轉給接線生。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Lucas Pipes, B. Riley.

派普斯 (Lucas Pipes)，B. 萊利 (B. Riley)。

Thank you very much, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. My first question is following up on the on the 45X commentary.

非常感謝您，接線生。大家下午好。我的第一個問題是跟進 45X 的評論。

And specifically, I understand there is a there's a process for the review of the direct and indirect costs, and including that in the benefit, but wondering if you could maybe elaborate on kind of what the process looks like from here? What's the potential timeline? What is the IRS looking for to make a determination on those. Thank you very much.

具體來說，我知道有一個審查直接和間接成本的流程，並將其包括在收益中，但想知道您是否可以詳細說明該流程是怎樣的？潛在的時間表是什麼？美國國稅局正在尋找什麼來做出決定。非常感謝。

Sure, Lucas. First of all, I'd just like to say we're very thankful for the program. And the proposed regulations clearly have a material benefit for Century, and also for US. aluminum production. To your point on process, we are working with Treasury on the proposed regulations, which, as I mentioned in my comments, included several questions for industry and other participants about which costs should be included as eligible.

當然，盧卡斯。首先，我想說我們非常感謝這個計畫。擬議的法規顯然對世紀和美國都有實質的好處。鋁生產。就您對流程的觀點而言，我們正在與財政部合作制定擬議的法規，正如我在評論中提到的，其中包括向行業和其他參與者提出的幾個問題，即哪些成本應納入合格範圍。

There's obviously been a lot of support coming in from industry, and also from some of the drafters of the bill, which is obviously important to the ultimate intent of the law. So we do think there's good potential for more benefit to come, but it will obviously depend on on the process. So these regulations, as we call them, are proposed regulations, and the process will be there.

顯然，業界以及該法案的一些起草者都給予了大力支持，這對該法律的最終意圖顯然很重要。因此，我們確實認為有可能帶來更多好處，但這顯然取決於流程。因此，我們所說的這些法規是擬議的法規，並且流程將會在那裡。

So a comment period -- which a number of comments have already been submitted -- and there also will be hearings. And then after that, Treasury and the IRS will take that feedback back, and also [an issue] is the notice of proposed regulations, or set of final regulations. There's no prescribed time line there. And so we'll just have to wait and see when we see the next set of proposed or final regulations.

因此，將有一個徵求意見期——已經提交了一些意見——並且還將舉行聽證會。之後，財政部和國稅局將收回回饋，[一個問題]是擬議法規或最終法規的通知。那裡沒有規定的時間線。因此，我們只能拭目以待，看看何時會看到下一組擬議或最終的法規。

Thank you. And do I remember it right that some of the hearings are tomorrow, and do you have a view on what you know when the comment period might close? Thank you.

謝謝。我記得嗎，有些聽證會將於明天舉行，您對評論期何時結束有何看法？謝謝。

Yes, the initial comment period is already closed, Lucas, and the hearing is, in fact tomorrow.

是的，盧卡斯，最初的評論期已經結束，聽證會實際上是在明天。

Very helpful. Thank you. And then I wanted to ask about Hawesville. I'm curious, kind of if you could share your views on where that asset could sit on the US cost curve with lower energy prices? More broadly with the 45X credit, there was a recent announcement about a curtailment of a smelter in the Midwest.

很有幫助。謝謝。然後我想問一下霍斯維爾的狀況。我很好奇，您是否可以分享您對能源價格較低時該資產在美國成本曲線上的位置的看法？更廣泛地說，45X 信用額度最近發布了一項關於中西部冶煉廠的削減計劃。

So kind of curious on what might be similar or different in Hawesville compare to that asset that idled, or maybe again, more broadly on the cost curve?

很好奇霍斯維爾與閒置的資產相比，或者可能再次，更廣泛地在成本曲線上有什麼相似或不同？

Thank you. Thank you very much.

謝謝。非常感謝。

Sure, Lucas. Good question. Yes. So we were very saddened to see the announcement that the New Madrid smelter in New Madrid, Missouri closed earlier this year. But obviously, each and every smelter in the US has its own mix of costs and circumstances, and it's difficult to really make broad generalizations or comparisons across them.

當然，盧卡斯。好問題。是的。因此，我們非常難過地看到密蘇裡州新馬德里的新馬德里冶煉廠今年稍早關閉的消息。但顯然，美國的每家冶煉廠都有自己的成本和情況，很難真正對它們進行廣泛的概括或比較。

With respect to Hawesville, specifically, we have obviously seen power prices in the midwest return towards attractive levels, mainly driven by the low price of natural gas, but also as additional renewable energy is built in the grid. It's actually quite rewarding to see just how green the overall midwest power environment has become.

具體而言，就霍斯維爾而言，我們明顯看到中西部的電價恢復到有吸引力的水平，這主要是由於天然氣價格低廉，而且隨著電網中建立了更多的可再生能源。看到整個中西部電力環境變得如此綠色，實際上是非常值得的。

So with respect to Hawesville, specifically, I think as we've said before, it will be a holistic decision based on many factors. Obviously, the power price situation is helpful. And when we have final guidance on the IRA credits, that will also be very helpful towards making that decision. But we'll evaluate all factors at the time, including in our corporate allocation and capital, power supply, LME outlook, and restart costs.

因此，具體而言，就霍斯維爾而言，我認為正如我們之前所說，這將是基於許多因素的整體決定。顯然，電價情勢是有幫助的。當我們對 IRA 積分有最終指導時，這也將非常有助於做出決定。但我們會評估當時的所有因素，包括我們的公司配置和資本、電力供應、LME 前景和重啟成本。

Of course, our first priority, as I said before, will be restarting Mount Holly. As I mentioned, we continue to work on that and make some progress.

當然，正如我之前所說，我們的首要任務是重啟 Mount Holly。正如我所提到的，我們將繼續努力並取得一些進展。

Thank you very much for that. I'll trying to squeeze one quick one in on on Jamalco. First, could you provide some color as to the contributions of Jamalco to Q1 EBITDA on an attributable basis? And then the $10 million to $15 million CapEx for 2024, is that kind of a good steady-state number for your for your interest in the assets? Thank you.

非常感謝你。我會盡力在 Jamalco 上快速擠一擠。首先，您能否提供一些關於 Jamalco 在可歸屬性基礎上對第一季 EBITDA 的貢獻的說明？那麼 2024 年 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的資本支出對於您對資產的興趣來說是一個不錯的穩態數字嗎？謝謝。

Yes. So obviously, as we continue to work on Jamalco and bringing it back to its full potential, which, as I've said before, we're quite confident over time we will return the asset to producing in the second quartile of the global cost curve, but we did have a few headwinds in Q4 and into Q1 when there were some delays in the restoration of some of the high-efficiency boilers, and we continue to have a little instability coming out of the energy related disruptions we had towards the end of Q3.

是的。顯然，隨著我們繼續致力於Jamalco 並使其充分發揮潛力，正如我之前所說，我們非常有信心隨著時間的推移，我們將使該資產恢復到全球成本第二個四分位數的生產狀態曲線，但我們在第四季度和第一季度確實遇到了一些阻力，因為一些高效鍋爐的恢復出現了一些延遲，而且我們仍然因與能源相關的中斷而出現一些不穩定。第三季度末。

So we now expect some of those production and cost efficiencies that we have previously talked about to be achieved in Q2 rather than Q1. But we do expect Jamalco to be roughly breakeven on an EBITDA basis in Q1. Obviously, there's some of the quarter to go still. And then as we see the production efficiency improvements take hold, we think that EBITDA generation will improve in Q2 and beyond.

因此，我們現在預計我們之前討論過的一些生產和成本效率將在第二季而不是第一季實現。但我們確實預期 Jamalco 在第一季的 EBITDA 基礎上將大致達到損益兩平。顯然，本季還有一些時間需要繼續。然後，隨著我們看到生產效率的提高，我們認為 EBITDA 的產生將在第二季及以後有所改善。

Sorry, and then to your CapEx question, Lucas, and I guess $10 million to $15 million reflects some of those restoration projects that we have in place, and the powerhouse that we've talked about before, so there's a little bit of mix of investment and sustaining CapEx in there, Lucas. So we'll just have to watch that, and we'll continue to guide you as we go forward on that CapEx breakdown in future periods.

抱歉，盧卡斯，關於你的資本支出問題，我想 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元反映了我們已經實施的一些修復項目，以及我們之前討論過的強大項目，所以有一些混合盧卡斯，投資和維持資本支出。因此，我們只需要關注這一點，我們將繼續為您提供未來時期資本支出細分的指導。

I really appreciate all the color, and I'll turn it over. Best of luck. Thank you.

我真的很欣賞所有的顏色，我會把它翻過來。祝你好運。謝謝。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

Thank you for your question.

謝謝你的問題。

John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.

約翰·圖馬佐斯，非常獨立的研究。

Thank you. With spot natural gas well under $2 in the Henry Hub recently -- $0.025 -- how are long term electricity prices behaving? Have long term prices fallen? Is this an opportune time to contract wind or solar renewable energy from Mount Holly or Sebree. And if there ever was a time to think about Hawesville, I would think it's when natural gas is almost free.

謝謝。最近亨利中心的現貨天然氣遠低於 2 美元——0.025 美元——長期電價表現如何？長期價格下跌了嗎？現在是從 Mount Holly 或 Sebree 承包風能或太陽能再生能源的合適時機嗎？如果有一個時間來思考霍斯維爾，我想那就是天然氣幾乎免費的時候。

Thanks, John. Good question. Unfortunately, natural gas isn't quite through yet. Though [I would] agree that would be a good environment.

謝謝，約翰。好問題。不幸的是，天然氣還沒有完全普及。儘管[我會]同意那將是一個良好的環境。

There's a few things going on in your question. So, midwest and US power prices generally, setting aside the cold snap we had in January, they have been very constructive. And both back half of last year and now certainly in the first quarter of this year, putting aside that brief week of very cold weather.

你的問題中有一些事情。因此，中西部和美國的電價總體來說，撇開一月份的寒流不談，它們一直非常有建設性。拋開那短暫的非常寒冷的天氣，去年下半年和今年第一季都是如此。

So you've got the range, right? You've seen them trading with low gas prices in the high 20s and low 30s over the balance of 2024, and you have seen the near part of the curve come in and reduce back towards sort of pre-pandemic levels in the midwest.

所以你已經掌握了範圍，對嗎？你已經看到他們在 2024 年餘下的時間裡以 20 多美元和 30 多美元的低油價進行交易，你也看到了中西部曲線的近半部分開始回落到大流行前的水平。

On the renewable side, however, you continue to see renewable supply chains be very stretched, and renewable prices remained well above pre-pandemic pricing levels for renewables. So it's pretty dynamic out there, that's a lot of things going on. It's kind of hard to make broad generalizations of the overall energy environment. But certainly it is a bit more constructive for Sebree as we continue to operate there.

然而，在再生能源方面，您仍然看到再生能源供應鏈非常緊張，再生能源價格仍遠高於疫情前的再生能源定價水準。所以那裡非常活躍，發生了很多事情。對整體能源環境進行廣泛的概括有點困難。但隨著我們繼續在那裡開展業務，這對 Sebree 來說無疑更具建設性。

If I can ask another, with your 5% demand growth estimate for last year from China, does that mean Chinese exports fell last year?

如果我再問一個問題，您預期中國去年的需求成長5%，這是否意味著中國去年的出口下降？

Yes. When you look at -- and you can sort of take a broader look and look at imports level -- we saw about 1.3 million tons of aluminum going into China. So the window was certainly open for most of the year, and largely that was based on very strong demand for EVs and renewable energy applications within China.

是的。當你觀察時——你可以更廣泛地觀察進口水平——我們看到大約有 130 萬噸鋁進入中國。因此，這一窗口在今年的大部分時間裡肯定是開放的，這很大程度上是基於中國對電動車和再生能源應用的非常強勁的需求。

So then your corresponding question on exports is a bit more complex, because you did see a lot of that demand go into not semis exports, which are easier to track, but more complete and downstream demand applications, and it's a bit harder to say exactly. But what we can see is that the drivers are those long-term demand drivers for aluminum we've long talked about, which is increasing aluminum intensity in electric vehicles, and increasing aluminum intensity in renewable energy and renewable energy transmission applications.

那麼關於出口的相應問題就有點複雜了，因為您確實看到很多需求不是進入半成品出口，半成品出口更容易跟踪，而是更完整的下游需求應用程序，而且很難準確地說。但我們可以看到，驅動因素是我們長期以來談論的鋁的長期需求驅動因素，即增加電動車中的鋁強度，以及增加再生能源和再生能源傳輸應用中的鋁強度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Thank you for your question. There are currently no further questions registered. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的問題。目前沒有登記任何其他問題。（操作員說明）

There are no additional questions waiting at this time, so I'll pass the call back to the management team for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題，因此我會將電話轉回管理團隊以取得結束語。

Okay. Thanks everyone for joining, and we look forward to talking to you after Q1. Thanks a lot.

好的。感謝大家的加入，我們期待在第一季之後與您交談。多謝。

That concludes the conference call and thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

電話會議到此結束，感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。