Century Aluminum Co (CENX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and thank you for attending today's Century Aluminum Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Jason, and I'll be the moderator for the call today. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，感謝您參加今天的世紀鋁業第三季財報電話會議。我叫傑森，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Ryan.

我現在想把會議交給主持人瑞安。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; Gerry Bialek, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. After our prepared comments, we'll take your questions.

謝謝你，接線生。大家下午好，歡迎參加電話會議。今天，世紀公司總裁兼執行長傑西·加里 (Jesse Gary) 也加入了我的行列。 Gerry Bialek，執行副總裁兼財務長；財務資深副總裁兼財務長 Peter Trpkovski。在我們準備好意見後，我們將回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD. Turning to Slide 1, please take a moment to review the cautionary statements shown here with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures contained in today's discussion.

請注意，今天的簡報可在我們的網站 www. centuryaluminum.com 上取得。我們使用我們的網站作為揭露有關公司的重要資訊並遵守 FD 法規的一種方式。轉向投影片 1，請花點時間回顧此處顯示的有關今天討論中包含的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則財務指標的警告性陳述。

And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑西。

Thanks, Ryan, and thanks to everyone for joining. It was a busy quarter with lots to discuss, so I'll get right into it. Turning to Slide 3. Lower LME and regional premiums were the primary drivers of reduced Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $9 million. While we were able to offset a significant portion of the fall in metal prices with lower input prices, higher-than-expected Mt. Holly power costs resulted in our Q3 results falling a bit below expectations.

謝謝瑞安，也謝謝大家的加入。這是一個繁忙的季度，有很多事情要討論，所以我會立即開始討論。轉向投影片 3。LME 和地區保費下降是第三季調整後 EBITDA 減少 900 萬美元的主要驅動因素。雖然我們能夠透過較低的投入價格抵消金屬價格下跌的很大一部分，但高於預期的 Mt. Holly 電力成本導致我們第三季的業績略低於預期。

We expect Mt. Holly energy prices to return to normal in Q4. And as we recently announced, we entered into a new power contract for Mt. Holly that will become effective on January 1. I'll provide some additional detail on the new contract in a bit.

我們預計 Mt. Holly 能源價格將在第四季恢復正常。正如我們最近宣布的，我們為 Mt. Holly 簽訂了一份新的電力合同，該合同將於 1 月 1 日生效。我稍後將提供有關新合同的一些額外細節。

In general, the macro environment for aluminum remains complex. As you can see on Page 4, the global market remains roughly balanced, with Chinese deficits largely offsetting a small surplus in the rest of the world.

整體而言，鋁的宏觀環境依然複雜。正如您在第 4 頁上看到的，全球市場保持大致平衡，中國的赤字很大程度上抵消了世界其他地區的小額順差。

Turning to China specifically, Chinese demand has benefited from strong solar and electric vehicle demand, with Chinese solar demand alone up around 1.5 million tonnes from last year. Recent stimulus announcements in China should drive further recovery in building and construction demand as the Chinese economy continues to recover from COVID lockdowns.

具體來說，中國的需求受益於強勁的太陽能和電動車需求，光是中國太陽能需求就比去年增加了約150萬噸。隨著中國經濟繼續從新冠疫情封鎖中復甦，中國最近宣布的刺激措施應該會推動建築需求的進一步復甦。

Reports have also recently emerged that Chinese smelters in Yunan will again have to curtail around 1 million tonnes of capacity due to low reservoir levels in their hydroelectric schemes. Once confirmed, this third straight season of Chinese production cuts would add to the Chinese deficit shown on Slide 4.

最近也有通報稱，由於水力發電計畫水庫水位較低，中國雲南冶煉廠將再次削減約 100 萬噸產能。一旦確認，中國連續第三個季度的減產將增加幻燈片 4 所示的中國赤字。

Overall, while realized LME prices fell to average $2,155 in Q3, global updates of inventory remained below 50 days. With inventories at these historically low levels, LME should be poised to recover quickly on any positive demand recovery or any further supply side disruptions as we saw following the announcement of the Yunan seasonal curtailments.

總體而言，雖然 LME 實際價格在第三季跌至平均 2,155 美元，但全球庫存更新週期仍低於 50 天。由於庫存處於歷史低位，LME 應該準備好在任何積極的需求復甦或任何進一步的供應方面中斷的情況下迅速恢復，正如我們在雲南季節性限產宣布後所看到的那樣。

While we wait for the macro cycle to improve, we have implemented programs across the company to lower costs, increase efficiency and free up cash, where possible. One example of this is the renewed focus on working capital management that Gerry will discuss with you in a minute. These efforts will help us remain robust during this portion of the cycle without interrupting our long-term investments and strategies.

在我們等待宏觀週期改善的同時，我們在整個公司範圍內實施了降低成本、提高效率並盡可能釋放現金的計劃。其中一個例子是重新關注營運資本管理，格里將在一分鐘內與您討論這一點。這些努力將幫助我們在周期的這一部分保持強勁，而不會中斷我們的長期投資和策略。

Turning to Slide 6. We can see that falling input prices have also helped to offset the decline in metal prices. Indiana Hub and Nord Pool have both remained constructive, while coke and caustic prices have continued to fall towards normalized levels. Natural gas inventories in both the U.S. and Europe remained well above 5-year averages, making a repeat of the high energy prices from last winter less likely.

轉向投影片 6。我們可以看到，投入價格的下跌也有助於抵消金屬價格的下跌。 Indiana Hub 和 Nord Pool 均保持建設性成長，而焦炭和苛性鹼價格繼續下跌至正常水平。美國和歐洲的天然氣庫存仍遠高於五年平均水平，使得去年冬季能源價格高漲的情況不太可能重演。

Turning to operations. We made significant progress on a number of our longer-term initiatives during the quarter. At Mt. Holly, we were very excited to announce late last month that we reached a new 3-year power contract with Santee Cooper through 2026. The agreement represents extensive work between the Century and Santee teams to structure a mutually beneficial arrangement.

轉向營運。本季我們在許多長期計劃上取得了重大進展。在Mt. Holly，我們非常高興地於上個月末宣布，我們與Santee Cooper 達成了一份新的3 年期電力合同，直至2026 年。該協議代表了Century 和Santee 團隊為構建互惠互利的安排所做的大量工作。

This agreement allows us to continue to invest in this excellent plant, preserve the approximately 470 jobs for our employees and continue to contribute to the economic success of the surrounding community. Under the new arrangement, Mt. Holly will be less exposed to changing fuel costs, including a fixed all-in 2024 energy rate that is below our 2023 realized rates. Mt. Holly also has the right under the agreement to increase the amount of energy provided under the contract, should we decide to return the smelter to full production when market conditions warrant.

該協議使我們能夠繼續投資這家優秀的工廠，為我們的員工保留約 470 個工作崗位，並繼續為週邊社區的經濟成功做出貢獻。根據新的安排，Mt. Holly 將較少受到燃料成本變化的影響，包括固定的 2024 年總能源費率低於我們 2023 年實現的費率。如果我們決定在市場條件允許時使冶煉廠恢復全面生產，根據協議，Mt. Holly 也有權增加合約規定的能源量。

In Iceland, operational performance is strong, continuing to reflect the excellent team we have built there. The Grundartangi casthouse project is nearing completion and remains on track to deliver our first sales of low-carbon natural billet to European customers early next year. We will provide you with additional details of the expected benefits of this value-added production on our Q4 call.

在冰島，營運績效強勁，持續體現了我們在那裡建立的優秀團隊。 Grundartangi 鑄造廠專案已接近完工，並預計在明年初向歐洲客戶交付第一批低碳天然鋼坯。我們將在第四季度的電話會議上向您提供有關這種增值產品的預期收益的更多詳細資訊。

In Jamaica, the first major project in our Project Restore CapEx program has been nearing completion, with the recommissioning of one of the plants' high-efficiency boilers set to be completed by the end of Q4. This boiler will increase the efficiency of the refinery's steam generation systems while also driving improved stability in the plant's powerhouse.

在牙買加，我們的專案恢復資本支出計劃中的第一個重大專案已接近完成，其中一個工廠高效鍋爐的重新調試將於第四季度末完成。此鍋爐將提高煉油廠蒸汽發生系統的效率，同時提高工廠動力室的穩定性。

A second high-efficiency boiler is expected to be recommissioned in late March. These projects should begin lowering Jamalco's cost of production beginning in Q1. Today, the cost of these programs are coming in on the low end of our expected CapEx spending in Jamalco for 2023.

第二台高效能鍋爐預計三月下旬重新投入運作。這些項目應從第一季開始降低 Jamalco 的生產成本。如今，這些項目的成本處於我們預期 2023 年 Jamalco 資本支出的低端。

In September, Jamalco suffered a power disruption resulting from an equipment failure in the same power generation unit responsible for the disruption in Q2. This caused the refinery to operate at partial production levels for a portion of September and all of October.

9 月，Jamalco 遭遇電力中斷，原因是造成第二季電力中斷的同一發電廠的設備故障。這導致煉油廠在 9 月的部分時間和整個 10 月以部分生產水準運作。

We believe the refinery has now returned to full and stable operations. Without these disruptions, Jamalco would have operated at roughly breakeven in the third quarter at spot aluminum prices.

我們相信煉油廠現已恢復全面穩定運作。如果沒有這些幹擾，賈馬爾科第三季以現貨鋁價計算將大致達到損益兩平。

Given the magnitude of these disruptions, we have submitted these claims to our insurers and expect to recover those losses under our insurance policies. In line with our past practice, we will adjust out both the impact of the outage and the future recovery of insurance proceeds from our results. Gerry will cover this more in his remarks. Gerry?

鑑於這些中斷的嚴重程度，我們已向保險公司提交了這些索賠，並希望根據我們的保單彌補這些損失。根據我們過去的做法，我們將調整停電的影響以及未來從我們的業績中收回的保險收益。格里將在他的演講中更多地討論這一點。格里？

Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to Slide 7, and I'll walk you through the results for the third quarter. Consolidated Q3 global shipments were 172,000 tonnes, down about 1% sequentially. Realized metal prices were down nearly 6% for the quarter, with net sales at $545 million, down 5% sequentially.

謝謝你，傑西。讓我們轉向投影片 7，我將向您介紹第三季的結果。第三季全球綜合出貨量為 172,000 噸，較上季下降約 1%。本季實現金屬價格下跌近 6%，淨銷售額為 5.45 億美元，較上一季下降 5%。

Looking at Q3, operating results, adjusted net loss was $14 million or $0.13 per share. This was a decrease of $29 million compared with prior quarter. The major adjusting items for the third quarter were add-backs of $22 million in unrealized losses on forward contracts in costs associated with the Jamalco equipment failure and $1 million for share-based compensation. These partially offset by a $4 million deduction for lower of cost or net realizable value on inventory.

從第三季的經營業績來看，調整後的淨虧損為 1,400 萬美元，即每股 0.13 美元。與上一季相比減少了 2900 萬美元。第三季的主要調整項目是與 Jamalco 設備故障相關的遠期合約未實現損失 2,200 萬美元的補回，以及 100 萬美元的股權補償。這些部分被庫存成本或可變現淨值降低 400 萬美元的扣除額所部分抵銷。

Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century, which includes our 55% share of the Jamalco JV in Jamaica was $9 million, a decrease of $20 million from the prior quarter. Liquidity improved by $75 million compared with prior quarter to $306 million, consisting of $70 million in cash, $23 million in restricted cash and $212 million available on our credit facilities.

歸屬於 Century 的調整後 EBITDA（包括我們在牙買加 Jamalco 合資企業 55% 的股份）為 900 萬美元，比上一季減少了 2000 萬美元。流動性比上一季增加了 7,500 萬美元，達到 3.06 億美元，其中包括 7,000 萬美元現金、2,300 萬美元限制性現金和 2.12 億美元可用信貸額度。

Net debt on September 30 was $424 million, down $83 million from prior quarter. During my first year at Century, we've focused on optimizing working capital and improving liquidity and are beginning to see significant progress. I'll talk more about this in a moment when I have cash flow.

9 月 30 日的淨債務為 4.24 億美元，比上一季減少 8,300 萬美元。在我加入世紀的第一年裡，我們專注於優化營運資本和提高流動性，並開始看到重大進展。等我有現金流的時候我會詳細討論這個問題。

Turning to Slide 8 to explain the third quarter sequential adjusted EBITDA bridge. Realized LME was $2,237 per ton, down $134 versus the prior quarter. while realized U.S. Midwest premium of $493 per ton was down $69 and realized European delivery premium of $323 per ton was up $24. These reflecting our 1- to 3-month lags in realized metal prices. Together, these factors resulted in a $28 million decrease in EBITDA in the quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8 來解釋第三季連續調整後的 EBITDA 橋。 LME 實現價格為每噸 2,237 美元，比上一季下降 134 美元。美國中西部已實現的交割溢價為每噸 493 美元，下跌了 69 美元，而歐洲交割的已實現溢價為每噸 323 美元，上漲了 24 美元。這些反映了我們實現的金屬價格存在 1 至 3 個月的延遲。這些因素共同導致本季 EBITDA 減少 2,800 萬美元。

Power costs were down slightly from prior quarter, with that 51% reduction in Nord Pool market prices being partially offset by a 4% increase in MISO Indy Hub exposure and higher cost of service rates at Mt. Holly, netting to a $3 million benefit to EBITDA. Q3 realized alumina cost was $396 per ton, $4 lower on a sequential basis.

電力成本較上一季略有下降，Nord Pool 市場價格下降 51%，但被 MISO Indy Hub 風險增加 4% 和 Mt. Holly 服務成本上升部分抵消，為該公司帶來 300 萬美元的收益息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤。第三季實現的氧化鋁成本為每噸 396 美元，季減 4 美元。

Remember, there's a 3- to 4-month lag for alumina cost to work through our income statement. Realized coke prices decreased 17% and realized pitch prices decreased 8%. together, alumina and other raw material costs resulted in a $4 million improvement in EBITDA. Volume OpEx improved EBITDA by $3 million. Unfavorable sales mix was a $3 million headwind. Overall, adjusted EBITDA was $9 million for the third quarter.

請記住，我們的損益表中的氧化鋁成本存在 3 到 4 個月的滯後期。焦炭實際價格下降 17%，瀝青實際價格下降 8%。氧化鋁和其他原料成本合計使 EBITDA 提高了 400 萬美元。批量營運支出使 EBITDA 提高了 300 萬美元。不利的銷售組合帶來了 300 萬美元的損失。總體而言，第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 900 萬美元。

Note the impact of downtime and lost production output at Jamalco that Jesse mentioned in his opening remarks, has been adjusted from the results presented here as Century has filed an insurance claim and expect that losses, less estimated deductibles, will be covered under its insurance policies. You can see the full reconciliation to GAAP in the appendix on Slide 13.

請注意Jesse 在開場白中提到的Jamalco 停機和產量損失的影響，已根據此處提供的結果進行調整，因為Century 已提出保險索賠，並預計損失（減去估計的免賠額）將由其保險單承保。您可以在投影片 13 的附錄中看到與 GAAP 的完整對帳。

Now let's turn to Slide 9 for a look at cash flow. We started the quarter with $51 million in cash. During the quarter, we completed the transaction to sell certain excess land at our Mt. Holly site, generating cash of $26 million. CapEx, primarily for the construction of our new casthouse in Iceland, used $26 million.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 9 看一下現金流。本季開始，我們擁有 5,100 萬美元現金。本季度，我們完成了出售 Mt. Holly 場地某些多餘土地的交易，產生了 2600 萬美元的現金。資本支出主要用於建造我們在冰島的新鑄造廠，使用了 2600 萬美元。

As part of our working capital optimization efforts, we monetize excess European emissions allowances to generate an additional $34 million. In case you are not familiar with the European Union Emissions Trading System, the ETS is a cap and trade system aimed at decreasing emissions over time in line with the EU's climate target.

作為我們營運資本優化工作的一部分，我們將多餘的歐洲排放配額貨幣化，以額外產生 3,400 萬美元的收入。如果您不熟悉歐盟排放交易體系，ETS 是一種限額與交易體系，旨在根據歐盟的氣候目標隨著時間的推移減少排放量。

Each year, Century receives free emission allowances or EUAs for our Grundartangi smelter in Iceland. These allowances must be surrendered in the following year to offset emissions from the smelter. Historically, we have held these units until they become due. As an ongoing source of liquidity, this year, we implemented an EUA monetization program to sell the excess units and to repurchase EUAs at a future fixed price to settle the EUA obligation when due.

每年，Century 都會為我們位於冰島的 Grundartangi 冶煉廠獲得免費排放配額或 EUA。這些配額必須在下一年交出，以抵消冶煉廠的排放。從歷史上看，我們一直持有這些單位直至到期。作為持續的流動性來源，今年我們實施了 EUA 貨幣化計劃，出售多餘的單位並以未來固定價格回購 EUA，以在到期時償還 EUA 義務。

Similar to other working capital optimization efforts, this program allows Century to utilize the interim value of the credits more effectively, improving liquidity and lowering leverage. I'm also excited about the progress we're making, driving optimization in the cash conversion cycle across all our sites.

與其他營運資本優化工作類似，該計劃使世紀能夠更有效地利用信貸的中期價值，提高流動性並降低槓桿率。我也對我們所取得的進展感到興奮，推動我們所有網站現金轉換週期的優化。

During the quarter, we realized working capital savings totaling $76 million, with $7 million coming from moving to more favorable vendor payment terms at our Jamalco refinery and the balance from various actions at our smelters. We expect to retain $20 million to $30 million of these working capital benefits going forward through aggressive inventory targets and other working capital optimizations.

本季度，我們實現了總計 7,600 萬美元的營運資金節省，其中 700 萬美元來自 Jamalco 煉油廠轉向更優惠的供應商付款條件，以及我們冶煉廠採取的各種行動的餘額。我們預計透過積極的庫存目標和其他營運資金優化，未來將保留 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元的營運資金收益。

The remainder of these savings were related to the timing of material flows, which we expect to reverse in Q4. Finally, we used $68 million to pay down our revolvers. These actions resulted in Q3 ending cash and restricted cash of $93 million, a $42 million improvement compared to the second quarter.

這些節省的其餘部分與材料流動的時間有關，我們預計這種情況將在第四季度逆轉。最後，我們用了 6800 萬美元來償還我們的左輪手槍。這些行動導致第三季期末現金和限制性現金達到 9,300 萬美元，比第二季增加 4,200 萬美元。

Now let's move to Slide 10 for insight into our expectations for the fourth quarter. For Q4, the lagged LME of $2,161 per ton is expected to be down $76 versus Q3 realized prices. The Q3 lagged U.S. Midwest premium is forecast to be $425 per ton, down $68. And the European delivery premium is expected to be $279 per ton or down about $44 compared with the third quarter.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 10，深入了解我們對第四季的預期。第四季度，滯後的 LME 價格為每噸 2,161 美元，預計比第三季的實際價格下跌 76 美元。第三季美國中西部滯後溢價預計為每噸 425 美元，下跌 68 美元。歐洲交貨升水預計為每噸279美元，較第三季下降約44美元。

Taken together, the LME and delivery premiums are expected to decrease Q4 EBITDA by approximately $20 million to $25 million compared with Q3 levels. Note, LME prices closed yesterday about $100 higher than our expected realized prices for Q4.

總的來說，與第三季的水平相比，LME 和交割溢價預計將使第四季度的 EBITDA 減少約 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。請注意，昨天 LME 價格收盤比我們預期的第四季度實際價格高出約 100 美元。

As you can see from our sensitivities on Slide 16, should these spot levels hold, we would expect this change alone to increase EBITDA by around $10 million to $15 million per quarter. Looking at our other key raw materials, lagged realized alumina cost is expected to be $385 per ton, down slightly.

正如您從投影片 16 上的敏感度中看到的那樣，如果這些現貨水準保持不變，我們預計僅此變更就能使 EBITDA 每季增加約 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。看看我們的其他主要原料，滯後的氧化鋁實際成本預計為每噸 385 美元，略有下降。

We expect a favorable impact from lower coke and pitch. Caustic soda prices were also down slightly. But as it takes 5 to 6 months for caustic spot prices to flow through our P&L, most of this benefit will be realized in Q1 2024. All in, we expect lower raw material costs to contribute between $10 million to $15 million to EBITDA compared with third quarter.

我們預計較低的焦炭和瀝青將產生有利影響。燒鹼價格也小幅下跌。但由於苛性鈉現貨價格需要5 至6 個月的時間才能反映到我們的損益表中，因此大部分收益將在2024 年第一季實現。總而言之，我們預計，與2024 年相比，較低的原料成本將為EBITDA 貢獻1,000 萬至1,500 萬美元。第三季。

We expect volume gains and operating cost improvements to add about $5 million to EBITDA in the fourth quarter. All factors considered, our Q4 outlook for adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in a range of between $0 million and $10 million.

我們預計第四季度銷售成長和營運成本改善將為 EBITDA 增加約 500 萬美元。考慮到所有因素，我們對第四季度調整後 EBITDA 的展望預計將在 000 萬美元至 1000 萬美元之間。

And finally, we expect a realized gain of about $10 million in the fourth quarter from hedging activity and tax expense of between $0 to $5 million. As a reminder, both of these items fall below EBITDA and impact adjusted net income.

最後，我們預計第四季度的對沖活動將實現約 1,000 萬美元的收益，稅收支出將在 000 至 500 萬美元之間。提醒一下，這兩項都低於 EBITDA 和影響調整後淨利。

An update on the purchase accounting for our Jamalco acquisition. As discussed in Note 2 of our current quarter 10-Q, we continue to work through the purchase accounting, which requires the acquired assets and liabilities to be recorded at fair value as of the acquisition date. We have up to 12 months from the acquisition date to perform the necessary work to finalize the fair value. And based on our preliminary fair value estimates, we've recorded a deferred gain as a current liability on the balance sheet as of September 30.

我們收購 Jamalco 的採購會計的最新資訊。正如我們目前季度 10-Q 的註 2 所討論的，我們繼續進行購買會計處理，這要求所收購的資產和負債按收購日期的公允價值記錄。自收購之日起，我們有最多 12 個月的時間進行必要的工作以最終確定公允價值。根據我們的初步公允價值估計，我們已將遞延收益記錄為截至 9 月 30 日資產負債表上的流動負債。

And now back over to you, Jesse.

現在回到你身上，傑西。

Thanks, Gerry. While we find ourselves in a challenging portion of the commodity cycle with LME and delivery premiums reaching 2.5-year lows in the third quarter, we remain focused on operating the business as efficiently as possible. We are proud of the progress we made on our long-term initiatives during the quarter, including the extension of the Mt. Holly power contract, nearing completion of our first major capital investment at Jamalco and completion of the Grundartangi casthouse early next year.

謝謝，格里。儘管我們發現自己正處於大宗商品週期的充滿挑戰的階段，倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 和交割保費在第三季度達到 2.5 年低點，但我們仍然專注於盡可能高效地經營業務。我們對本季長期計劃的進展感到自豪，包括延長 Mt. Holly 電力合約、即將完成 Jamalco 的首筆重大資本投資以及明年初完成 Grundartangi 鑄造廠。

We are also pleased with the continued optimization of our balance sheet, including completion of the Mt. Holly land sale and progressing working capital optimization program, leaving us well positioned with significant liquidity to continue our long-term investments during this portion of the cycle. All in all, despite a challenging macro environment, we are managing the business to continue to provide positive EBITDA and unlock additional liquidity and cash.

我們也對資產負債表的持續優化感到高興，包括完成 Mt. Holly 土地出售和正在進行的營運資本優化計劃，使我們處於有利地位，擁有大量流動性，可以在周期的這一部分繼續進行長期投資。總而言之，儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰，我們仍在管理業務，以繼續提供正的 EBITDA 並釋放額外的流動性和現金。

Long-term macro trends towards decarbonization and electrification are beginning to play out and grow stronger as government stimulus funds in China and Inflation Reduction Act funds in the U.S. are beginning to be distributed. Our plants are running well and at plant production levels, leaving us well positioned to benefit as the commodity cycle improves. We look forward to your questions today. Operator?

隨著中國政府刺激資金和美國通膨削減法案資金開始分配，脫碳和電氣化的長期宏觀趨勢開始顯現並變得更加強勁。我們的工廠運作良好，達到工廠生產水平，使我們能夠隨著商品週期的改善而受益。我們今天期待您的提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

In your final comments there in your prepared remarks, you mentioned -- I think you mentioned the IRA and the benefits for demand. But then if I understand it correctly, there are also provisions in the IR specifically for primary aluminum production. I think it's Section 45X, and it relates to a credit of 10% of the production cost. And obviously, on the surface, this appears pretty material. So I wondered if you could maybe speak to that and where that currently stands.

在您準備好的演講中的最後評論中，您提到了——我認為您提到了 IRA 和需求帶來的好處。但如果我理解正確的話，IR 中也有專門針對原鋁生產的規定。我認為這是第 45X 條，它涉及生產成本 10% 的抵免。顯然，從表面上看，這看起來很重要。所以我想知道你是否可以談談這個問題以及目前的情況。

Lucas, thanks. Very good question. So you're correct that aluminum is listed as a critical mineral under Section 45X of the Inflation Reduction Act. Maybe just to back up, Section 45X is a provision that, amongst other things, is intended to incentivize U.S. production of critical minerals here domestically.

盧卡斯，謝謝。非常好的問題。因此，根據《通貨膨脹減少法》第 45X 條，鋁被列為關鍵礦物，這一點您是正確的。也許只是為了支持，第 45X 條是一項條款，除其他外，旨在激勵美國在國內生產關鍵礦物。

We're obviously very excited about the potential benefits that we might receive under Section 45X, but the U.S. Treasury Department has not yet issued guidance for the provision, given that it's a bit difficult at this point to quantify what the potential benefits might be for Century. But the Treasury Department has come out publicly and said that they expect to issue that guidance before the end of the year.

顯然，我們對根據第 45X 條可能獲得的潛在好處感到非常興奮，但美國財政部尚未發布該條款的指導，因為目前很難量化潛在的好處。世紀。但財政部已公開表示，他們預計將在今年底前發布該指引。

So what we intend to do is once that guidance has been released, we plan to hold a follow-up call to further discuss and quantify what those benefits might be to Century. And until we have a guidance so it's hard to provide too much more information for now.

因此，我們打算做的是，一旦指南發布，我們計劃舉行後續電話會議，進一步討論和量化這些可能為世紀帶來的好處。在我們得到指導之前，目前很難提供太多更多資訊。

And -- but at this point, there haven't been any, I guess, it would be an accrual, essentially, potentially, given that I think this credit would -- started at Jan 1, '23. You said there would be a benefit for this year, right?

而且 - 但在這一點上，我猜，這將是一個應計的，本質上，潛在的，因為我認為這個信用會 - 從 23 年 1 月 1 日開始。你說今年會有福利吧？

Yes. The -- while we await the guidance, the provision did become effective. Obviously, the law has passed. But -- and the version did become effective January 1, 2023. But until we have that guidance, it's tough to really say more than that. But you're correct that the law itself does mention that it would apply beginning on January 1, 2023.

是的。當我們等待指導意見時，該規定確實生效了。顯然，法律已經通過了。但是，該版本確實於 2023 年 1 月 1 日生效。但在我們得到該指導之前，很難說更多。但你是對的，法律本身確實提到它將從 2023 年 1 月 1 日開始適用。

Yes. Really, really appreciate that. And in terms of the guidance or clarification needed, can you elaborate on what exactly you're waiting for? And I know this can be technical, but could you maybe comment on what guidance, specifically, you're waiting for?

是的。真的，真的很感激。就所需的指導或澄清而言，您能否詳細說明您到底在等待什麼？我知道這可能是技術性的，但您能否評論一下您正在等待的具體指導是什麼？

Sure. I'll try to keep it relatively high level since -- until we have the guidance. It's really hard to comment on what will be in the guidance. But that said, your summary was well done. Section 45X does provide for a production tax credit for critical minerals. And that production tax credit applies to what the law calls cost of production. What the law does not do is provide any guidance as to how that cost of production should be calculated.

當然。我將盡力將其保持在相對較高的水平，直到我們得到指導。很難對指南中的內容發表評論。但話雖如此，你的總結做得很好。第 45X 條確實規定了關鍵礦物的生產稅收抵免。生產稅收抵免適用於法律所說的生產成本。法律沒有就如何計算生產成本提供任何指導。

So you can imagine a bunch of different provisions that may be included or not included in cost of production. For instance, 1 example might be whether depreciation is included in cost of production. So without further guidance from the Treasury Department, after talking with our advisers, outside advisers, discussing it internally with our team, we thought it was too early to record anything on our financial statements and difficult to do, again, without any guidance on what the quantum of those benefits might be.

因此，您可以想像一堆可能包含或不包含在生產成本中的不同條款。例如，一個例子可能是折舊是否包含在生產成本中。因此，在沒有財政部的進一步指導的情況下，在與我們的顧問、外部顧問交談，與我們的團隊進行內部討論之後，我們認為現在在我們的財務報表上記錄任何內容還為時過早，而且在沒有任何指導的情況下很難做到這一點。這些好處的數量可能是。

So for now, that's where we stand. And what we intend to do is, once that guidance comes out, which, again, the Treasury Department says they expect to do before the end of the year, we'll hold a follow-up call where we can discuss that in more detail.

所以現在，這就是我們的立場。我們打算做的是，一旦該指導意見出台（財政部再次表示他們希望在今年年底前完成），我們將舉行後續電話會議，以便更詳細地討論該指導意見。

I really appreciate this discussion. I do have further questions, but now I'll move on to a different theme. I really appreciate that color. And when I look to kind of value-add products and the billet premium for 2024, have those negotiations started? Have they been completed? And could you maybe comment on what you would expect in terms of that billet premium in the current environment for 2024?

我真的很感謝這次討論。我確實還有其他問題，但現在我將轉向另一個主題。我真的很欣賞這種顏色。當我關注2024年的增值產品和方坯溢價時，這些談判已經開始了嗎？它們完成了嗎？您能否評論一下在當前環境下 2024 年方坯溢價的預期？

Sure, Lucas. Thanks. Another good question. So both for the U.S. and, of course, as we discussed, our new Grundartangi casthouse will also come online and begin producing billet early next year. We've really just started to discuss 2024 sales. The season has started a bit later this year than maybe it has in past years, which, I think, reflects probably a bit of the general market dynamic that we see.

當然，盧卡斯。謝謝。另一個好問題。因此，對於美國來說，當然，正如我們所討論的，我們的新 Grundartangi 鑄造廠也將在明年初上線並開始生產方坯。我們實際上才剛開始討論 2024 年的銷售情況。今年的產季開始得比往年晚一些，我認為這可能反映了我們所看到的整體市場動態。

As I mentioned, there have obviously been a bunch of macro drivers that have resulted in both LME and regional delivery premiums reaching sort of 2.5-year lows. But of course, until we really get very far in those discussions, it's hard to predict what 2024 premiums might be. But we'll definitely include those on our Q4 call when we give you the rest of our 2024 guidance.

正如我所提到的，顯然有一系列宏觀驅動因素導致 LME 和區域交割溢價觸及 2.5 年低點。但當然，在我們真正深入討論之前，很難預測 2024 年的保費可能是多少。但當我們向您提供 2024 年指導的其餘部分時，我們肯定會將這些內容納入我們的第四季度電話會議中。

And I would definitely expect, definitely, for the U.S., we would have those premiums set. Going forward for Europe, that market is more the quarterly market. So you'll see us start to reflect Philippines and Europe more on a quarterly basis because it can change from quarter-to-quarter, whereas the U.S. is more of an annual market.

我絕對希望，對於美國，我們會設定這些保費。展望歐洲，該市場更多的是季度市場。因此，您會看到我們開始更多地按季度反映菲律賓和歐洲的情況，因為它可能會隨著季度的變化而變化，而美國更多的是年度市場。

Got it. That's helpful. Really quickly on Mt. Holly. Good to see that contract come through. If I recall correctly, Mt. Holly is running at 75% utilization. Have there been discussions about increasing this cost of service power allocation to Mt. Holly so that the plant can run at 100%?

知道了。這很有幫助。很快就到了霍利山。很高興看到合約得以履行。如果我沒記錯的話，Mt. Holly 的使用率為 75%。是否討論過增加 Mt. Holly 的服務電力分配成本，以便工廠能夠 100% 運作？

Yes. And actually, that's something that we negotiated as part of this contract is we do have the right to call the additional power that would be necessary in order to restart the remaining 25% at the Mt. Holly pots. So as we monitor the market conditions, we have that option on -- within a notice period that would work with a restart to call that power. So securing the power won't be a roadblock to restarting those pots in Mt. Holly.

是的。實際上，作為本合約的一部分，我們協商的內容是，我們確實有權調用必要的額外權力，以便重新啟動 Mt. Holly 盆地的剩餘 25%。因此，當我們監控市場狀況時，我們可以選擇在通知期內重新啟動以調用該權力。因此，確保電力供應不會成為重啟 Mt. Holly 計畫的障礙。

And the power, would it be at the same cost of service rate? Or would there be a different tariff of sorts?

以及電力，是否會以相同的服務費率成本？或是會有不同的關稅嗎？

Yes. The option was in the contract, is linked to -- there was actually a few different tariff schedules that we will take power on from Santee Cooper under that contract. But the option is linked to one of those rates that's in the rest of the Mt. Holly power contract package.

是的。該選項在合約中，與實際上有一些不同的關稅表有關，我們將根據該合約從桑蒂·庫珀那裡獲得權力。但該選項與 Mt. Holly 電力合約包其餘部分中的其中一個費率掛鉤。

All right. I really appreciate all the color and to you and the team best of luck.

好的。我真的很欣賞所有的顏色，祝你和團隊好運。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

Our next question is from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Timna Tanners。

I hope everyone can hear me okay.

我希望每個人都能聽到我的聲音。

You sound great, Timna. Thanks.

你聽起來很棒，提姆納。謝謝。

Okay. Super. Just had to check. All right. So I had a couple of questions I thought I would hone in on the situation in Jamalco. As far as interesting, it was material enough to file for insurance recovery, but I didn't -- I might have missed the press release there or an announcement about it. And I wanted to know a little bit more about the incident. You said it was the second time this has happened. Do you feel like you've sufficiently addressed the situation so that, that won't recur?

好的。極好的。只是要檢查一下。好的。所以我有幾個問題，我想我應該深入了解賈馬爾科的情況。有趣的是，它的材料足以申請保險賠償，但我沒有——我可能錯過了那裡的新聞稿或有關它的公告。我想更多地了解這一事件。你說這是第二次發生了。您是否覺得自己已經充分解決了這種情況，從而不再發生這種情況？

Yes. So great question. Maybe I can provide a little more detail and just why we feel confident that we've now got it under control. So within our refinery, in general, you'll have some steam generation -- steam-powered electrical generation units that supply energy to the plant and also regulate the steam pressure going into the refinery.

是的。很好的問題。也許我可以提供更多細節，以及為什麼我們有信心現在已經控制了局勢。因此，在我們的煉油廠內，通常會有一些蒸汽發電——蒸汽動力發電機組，為工廠提供能源，並調節進入煉油廠的蒸汽壓力。

And in this case, one of our steam generation units suffered a failure originally back in the May-June time period. And then we thought we had it addressed, but it recurred in the late September time period.

在這種情況下，我們的一台蒸汽發生器最初在五月至六月期間發生了故障。然後我們以為我們已經解決了這個問題，但它在九月底再次出現。

And we dug a little further. We've brought in engineers from the manufacturer who went through that machine with us and have now helped us bring it back to its normal operating status. So given those steps, again, with the engineers from the manufacturer as well, we feel confident that, that issue is now behind us.

我們進一步挖掘了一些。我們從製造商那裡邀請了工程師，他們和我們一起檢查了那台機器，現在已經幫助我們將其恢復到正常運作狀態。因此，考慮到製造商工程師的這些步驟，我們相信這個問題現在已經過去了。

Okay. And then when do you think you might be able to record a recovery from your insurance company? And like so what timing and also what might the deductible look like?

好的。那麼您認為什麼時候可以向保險公司獲得賠償？那麼什麼時間以及免賠額會是什麼樣子呢？

Sure. We won't give specific guidance on the deductible, although it's just a small -- relatively small portion of the overall claim. So one should not be material from a cash matching standpoint to the losses that we incurred. But that claim, we've just made it. So we really need to engage with the insurer to talk about timing for payment.

當然。我們不會就免賠額提供具體指導，儘管它只是整個索賠中相對較小的一小部分。因此，從現金匹配的角度來看，我們所遭受的損失不應該是重大的。但我們只是做到了這一點。因此，我們確實需要與保險公司討論付款時間。

You might look back to our 2018 claim for Sebree when we had an outage that stopped some power deliveries to the plant, resulted in some production being lost. That recovery, I think, took about a year to actually get the cash in the door. So that might give you some guidance as what it may be here, although it's hard to say at this point.

您可能會回顧我們 2018 年對 Sebree 的索賠，當時我們發生了一次停電，導致工廠的部分電力停止輸送，導致部分生產損失。我認為，這次復甦花了大約一年的時間才真正收到現金。因此，這可能會給您一些指導，儘管目前還很難說。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I know there was a mention, I mean, you're going through the guidance that if the price paid at the recent levels, there would be additional EBITDA. I just want to make sure I understood those comments correctly. Is that just to say that I think I have to go back to my notes, it was an extra $15 million to $20 million of EBITDA or -- and I assume that was to say that if today's LME price were sustained through the rest of the quarter. But I just wanted to clarify what was intended by those comments.

好的。這很有幫助。然後我知道有人提到，我的意思是，您正在閱讀指導，如果價格按最近的水平支付，將會有額外的 EBITDA。我只是想確保我正確理解這些評論。 Is that just to say that I think I have to go back to my notes, it was an extra $15 million to $20 million of EBITDA or -- and I assume that was to say that if today's LME price were sustained through the rest of the四分之一.但我只是想澄清這些評論的意圖。

Yes. You got it almost exactly correct, Timna. Basically, we're just saying that cash prices today are about $100 higher than what our realized Q3 LME prices were. And so if that were to sort of sustain going forward, if you go back to our sensitivities in our deck, you'll see it should have about a $10 million to $15 million quarterly impact on EBITDA going forward.

是的。你幾乎完全正確，蒂姆納。基本上，我們只是說今天的現金價格比我們實現的 LME 第三季價格高出約 100 美元。因此，如果這種情況能夠持續下去，如果你回到我們的敏感性，你會發現它應該對未來的 EBITDA 產生約 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的季度影響。

So in other words, what we're hopeful of is we have started to see some green shoots on both the demand and the supply side globally. Some of the things I talked about, we've seen really strong renewable demand in China, strong EV demand in China, both of which are things that should extrapolate to the rest of the world. As the macro picks, situation rebounds.

換句話說，我們所希望的是，我們已經開始看到全球需求和供應方面都出現了一些萌芽。我談到的一些事情，我們看到中國非常強勁的再生能源需求，中國強勁的電動車需求，這兩件事都應該推斷到世界其他地區。隨著宏觀經濟的回暖，情勢有所回升。

And then we've also seen, on the supply side, additional outage in China. So a lot of those are what drove that LME prices start to improve. And so obviously, we're hopeful that those trends continue. And if they do, there's a lot of earnings power in this business as we've shown in previous quarters.

然後，在供應方面，我們也看到中國出現了額外的停電。因此，其中許多因素推動了 LME 價格開始上漲。顯然，我們希望這些趨勢能夠持續下去。如果他們這樣做了，正如我們在前幾季所展示的那樣，這項業務就有很大的盈利能力。

Okay. And then just wrapping up, if I could. On the raw material side, just looking at the guidance, I know caustic has yet to fully flow through in your numbers. But do you see a lot further downside with coke and pitch? And then remind us, if you could, on Jamalco, what alumina price is breakeven for you?

好的。然後就結束了，如果可以的話。在原料方面，只要看看指導，我就知道苛性鹼尚未完全滲透到你們的數字中。但您是否認為焦炭和瀝青還有更多的缺點？然後提醒我們，如果可以的話，在 Jamalco，什麼氧化鋁價格對您來說是盈虧平衡的？

Sure. So yes, on the coke and pitch side, it's -- given the course of the past couple of years, it's hard to really set what your expectations are because we've been stuck for almost 2 years now, with coke and pitch prices that are just materially higher than what we ever saw in any previous period. So as they've come down, I mean, coke prices are down almost 50% from where their height was, but they're still well above where historical levels are.

當然。所以，是的，在焦炭和瀝青方面，考慮到過去幾年的情況，很難真正設定你的期望，因為我們已經陷入困境近兩年了，焦炭和瀝青價格一直在上漲。只是實質上高在我們之前任何時期所看到的。我的意思是，隨著焦炭價格的下跌，焦炭價格較其最高點下降了近 50%，但仍遠高於歷史水準。

So obviously, a lot of this will have to do with the oil markets and energy markets globally and steel markets, frankly. But we continue to see them coming back down towards a normalized level. There's really no reason why they shouldn't. So we'd expect that to continue over coming quarters, although we just wish it would happen faster than the past.

坦白說，顯然，這在很大程度上與全球石油市場和能源市場以及鋼鐵市場有關。但我們繼續看到它們回落至正常水平。他們確實沒有理由不這麼做。因此，我們預計這種情況將在未來幾季繼續下去，儘管我們只是希望這種情況發生得比過去更快。

Caustic, as we said, last about 6 months, it takes longer to come through. The caustic prices have really come off substantially, and we really haven't started to see the benefit of that really flow through our results because that stand-on trends happened more recently. So we'll start to see that more significantly starting in Q1.

正如我們所說，腐蝕性能持續約 6 個月，需要更長的時間才能通過。苛性鹼價格確實大幅下跌，而且我們還沒有真正開始看到這種好處真正體現在我們的結果中，因為這種獨立趨勢是最近才發生的。因此，我們將從第一季開始看到更明顯的變化。

And then on the -- on the refinery side, we're not giving cash breakevens for any of the assets. But what I did say in my prepared remarks was, absent the power disruption that we had at Jamalco in the quarter, it would have been about breakeven for the quarter. So that could give you some sense.

然後在煉油廠方面，我們不會為任何資產提供現金收支平衡。但我在準備好的發言中確實說過，如果沒有本季 Jamalco 發生的電力中斷，本季將基本實現盈虧平衡。所以這可以給你一些感覺。

Thanks, Timna. And then maybe just to add on for Jamalco. Obviously, we've got a lot of CapEx programs ongoing there. So we would expect that to continue to improve over the course of 2024, but that's where we stand today.

謝謝，蒂姆納。然後也許只是為 Jamalco 添加一些內容。顯然，我們正在進行許多資本支出計畫。因此，我們預計這一情況將在 2024 年繼續改善，但這就是我們今天的處境。

Our next question is from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Tumazos 和 John Tumazos Very Independent Research。

Could you shed some light on the big dip in European power prices or the Nord Pool price? Is it more due to weaker demand slowing European economy as opposed to any increase in electricity supply?

您能否透露一下歐洲電價或 Nord Pool 電價大幅下跌的情況？是否更多的是由於需求疲軟導致歐洲經濟放緩，而不是電力供應的增加？

Yes. So very good question, John. Thanks. If -- when you're looking at European power prices, probably the easiest common factor to look at is natural gas prices. And in Europe, obviously, that's referencing TTF. So if you take a look at TTF over time, they obviously had very, very historically high levels, multiples of where it had been over history in the energy crisis that really hit late last fall, early winter. And the situation has definitely improved from that.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，約翰。謝謝。如果—當您查看歐洲電力價格時，最容易查看的共同因素可能是天然氣價格。顯然，在歐洲，這是指 TTF。因此，如果你看一下一段時間內的 TTF，它們顯然處於非常非常高的歷史水平，是去年秋末冬初真正發生的能源危機中歷史水平的數倍。從那以後情況肯定有所改善。

So European natural gas storage is near capacity today. And LNG availability is relatively strong. And so you've seen TTF come back down significantly from the record levels that we saw last year. That said, it's still multiples above where it stood historically. And obviously, multiples above, say, where Henry Hub is here in the United States, more than 10x. So when you look at it from that standpoint, maybe 10x isn't the right multiple, but it's multiples above where Henry Hub is today.

因此，目前歐洲天然氣儲存已接近容量。而且液化天然氣的供應能力也比較強。因此，您已經看到 TTF 從我們去年看到的創紀錄水平大幅下降。也就是說，它仍然是歷史水準的數倍。顯然，上面的倍數，例如，美國亨利中心 (Henry Hub) 的倍數，超過 10 倍。因此，當你從這個角度來看時，也許 10 倍不是正確的倍數，但它是亨利中心今天的倍數。

So when you look at it from that standpoint, European energy prices are going to stay high, while that dynamic remains. And well, it thankfully gotten better. I think there are still challenges. And you can then see that in industrial demand, where we've seen relatively subdued European economy.

因此，從這個角度來看，歐洲能源價格將保持在高位，而這種動態仍然存在。幸運的是，情況變得更好了。我認為仍然存在挑戰。然後你可以在工業需求中看到這一點，我們看到歐洲經濟相對疲軟。

In your demand-supply balance, you had almost 1 million tonnes of excess demand in China and 1.5 million tonnes of demand less than output in ex China, is that demand decline mostly in Europe? Or is it more broadly spread out U.S., Europe developing world?

在供需平衡中，中國的需求過剩近 100 萬噸，中國以外的需求比產量少 150 萬噸，需求下降主要是在歐洲嗎？或更廣泛地分佈在美國、歐洲發展中國家？

Yes. I think you got it about right, John, it's definitely most significantly in Europe, which, I would say, really, of all regions globally, has been the most challenged over this period. Much better in the U.S., to be honest, although obviously not at levels that we would like to see it and that we think it could return to.

是的。我認為你說得對，約翰，這絕對是在歐洲最重要的，我想說，實際上，在全球所有地區中，歐洲在這段時期是面臨最大挑戰的。老實說，美國的情況要好得多，儘管顯然沒有達到我們希望看到的水平，也沒有達到我們認為可以恢復的水平。

So we -- for both markets, frankly, are eager to see the cycle go ahead and turn over because both markets remain very short on the aluminum side, and frankly gotten much shorter given the economic situation over the last several years. So as I said, we certainly see some green shoots. Obviously, the end of the UAW strikes here in the U.S. should help automotive demand going forward. It's sort of an interesting one to predict.

因此，坦白說，對於這兩個市場，我們都渴望看到週期繼續進行並扭轉局面，因為這兩個市場在鋁方面仍然非常短缺，而且坦率地說，考慮到過去幾年的經濟形勢，鋁的短缺程度大大降低。正如我所說，我們當然看到了一些萌芽。顯然，美國汽車工人聯合會罷工的結束應該有助於推動汽車需求的成長。這是一個有趣的預測。

But obviously, people saw those UAW strikes coming. So we started to see a little bit of demand impact going in even before the strike started. But now they're certainty there. We think that should help to pick up. Aerospace demand has also been very strong here in the U.S., which is a real nice tailwind for us. And then as interest rates come down, we should see some recovery in building construction as well.

但顯然，人們預見了 UAW 罷工的到來。因此，甚至在罷工開始之前，我們就開始看到需求受到了一些影響。但現在他們已經確定了。我們認為這應該有助於回升。美國的航空航天需求也非常強勁，這對我們來說確實是一個很好的推動力。然後，隨著利率下降，我們應該會看到建築施工有所復甦。

If I could ask 1 more, and I apologize. Sometimes I try to ignore Washington as the government is so disgusting. Could you explain these strategic tax credits a little more or maybe again because I hadn't been studying them. With the benefit to Century on a full year basis when they're codified, would it be closer to $1 million or $10 million or $100 million or more? Just give us an accrued range or order of magnitude.

如果我可以再問1個問題，我深感抱歉。有時我試著忽視華盛頓，因為政府太噁心了。您能否多解釋一下這些策略性稅收抵免，或者再解釋一下，因為我沒有研究過它們。當它們被編入法典時，世紀公司全年的收益會接近 100 萬美元、1000 萬美元、1 億美元或更多嗎？只需給我們一個累計範圍或數量級。

Yes. Thanks, John. As I said before, until we have those regulations come out, it's very difficult to quantify exactly what will be included in cost of production. But you can go back to the law itself and see what it lays out is that a tax credit -- production tax credit equal to 10% of cost of production of these critical minerals. So you can take a look at that. But until we have the regulations, we're not going to estimate what that credit could be.

是的。謝謝，約翰。正如我之前所說，在這些法規出台之前，很難準確量化生產成本中所包含的內容。但你可以回到法律本身，看看它規定的是稅收抵免——相當於這些關鍵礦物生產成本 10% 的生產稅收抵免。所以你可以看一下。但在製定法規之前，我們不會估計這種信用可能是什麼。

So that could be 10%, could be $0.15 a pound for your U.S. output? I don't mean to put words in your mouth, Jesse, I'm sorry.

那麼，您的美國產量可能是 10%，即每磅 0.15 美元？我不想把話塞到你嘴裡，傑西，對不起。

No problem. Thanks, John.

沒問題。謝謝，約翰。

Our next question is from Katja Jancic with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Katja Jancic。

Maybe starting with Jamalco. Can you provide any preliminary views on how we should think about CapEx for next year?

也許從 Jamalco 開始。您能否就我們應該如何考慮明年的資本支出提供一些初步意見？

Well, in line with our normal cadence, Katja, I think we'll wait to give any 2024 guidance until our Q4 call. So yes, we'll come back to you with that in February.

好吧，按照我們正常的節奏，Katja，我認為我們會等到第四季度電話會議後再給出 2024 年的指導。所以，是的，我們會在二月回覆您。

Okay. And what would be -- can you just say what the maintenance CapEx typically would be?

好的。您能說說維護資本支出通常是多少嗎？

Sorry, could you repeat that?

抱歉，您能再說一次嗎？

Sorry. If you could maybe provide what the maintenance CapEx for Jamalco would be, the typical maintenance?

對不起。如果您可以提供 Jamalco 的維護資本支出是多少，典型的維護是什麼？

Yes. Again, we'll go ahead and give those numbers on our Q4 call. What we did talk about last time was that we expected, basically, second half 2023 CapEx for the refinery to be in the $10 million to $20 million range. What I said in my prepared remarks, we expect to be coming down on the low end of that range for the rest of the year. That includes both the maintenance CapEx and some investment CapEx, including the restoration of the high-efficiency boiler that I mentioned. So if you're just looking for some general provisions that gives you a sense, although again way to guide for 2024 until that Q4 call.

是的。同樣，我們將在第四季的電話會議上給出這些數字。我們上次談到的是，我們基本上預計煉油廠 2023 年下半年的資本支出將在 1,000 萬至 2,000 萬美元範圍內。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們預計今年剩餘時間的價格將降至該範圍的低端。這包括維護資本支出和一些投資資本支出，包括我提到的高效能鍋爐的恢復。因此，如果您只是在尋找一些能讓您有所了解的一般性規定，儘管這又是 2024 年第四季電話會議之前的指南。

Okay. And maybe I missed this on the European credits. Is there further credits you can monetize? Or how should we think about that?

好的。也許我在歐洲片尾曲中錯過了這一點。還有更多積分可以貨幣化嗎？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

Hi, Katja. What we did is we monetized the excess credits that we had that have been allocated to us for free, with the agreement to repurchase them before they're due in 2024. So we've monetized what are available to us or that hurts.

嗨，卡佳。我們所做的是將免費分配給我們的超額信用貨幣化，並同意在 2024 年到期之前回購它們。因此，我們將可用的或有害的信用貨幣化。

But I think the best way to sort of think about that going forward is to relate it to our overall working capital optimization programs. So we do -- we will continue to have those ETS credits granted on an annual basis as part of the regulatory scheme. And so what our intention would be to continue to optimize that working capital, namely the EUA credits, continuously over time as an additional source of liquidity.

但我認為思考未來的最佳方法是將其與我們的整體營運資本優化計畫連結起來。因此，我們將繼續每年授予這些 ETS 積分，作為監管計劃的一部分。因此，我們的目的是繼續優化營運資金，即 EUA 信貸，隨著時間的推移不斷優化，作為額外的流動性來源。

Okay. And maybe just 1 more, if I may. On Mt. Holly, if you were -- if you did decide to increase operations to full capacity, what would the CapEx required be? And how long would it take you to do that?

好的。如果可以的話，也許還有 1 個。在 Mt. Holly，如果您確實決定將營運提高到滿載，那麼所需的資本支出是多少？你需要多長時間才能做到這一點？

Thanks, Katja, that's a very good question. In terms of the timing, obviously, just a couple of years ago now, we went through a restart of the continuously operating line and an additional 25% of those spots. And that took somewhere from 12 to 18 months to do that. So that will give you a sense -- but the time frame, if we were to restart the remaining pots at Mt. Holly as well. From the cost side, we're undertaking that work now. Obviously, it's a bit hard to predict based on past experience, given the cost environment that we found ourselves in over the past couple of years. So we're actually undertaking that work, working through what the cost would be. And I think we should be in a better position to give you some better figures in Q4 or Q1.

謝謝，卡佳，這是一個非常好的問題。就時間安排而言，顯然，就在幾年前，我們重新啟動了持續營運的生產線，並增加了 25% 的站點。這花了 12 到 18 個月的時間才完成。所以這會給你一個感覺 - 但時間框架，如果我們要重新啟動霍利山的剩餘盆地的話。從成本方面來看，我們現在正在進行這項工作。顯然，考慮到我們過去幾年所處的成本環境，根據過去的經驗來預測有點困難。因此，我們實際上正在進行這項工作，併計算成本。我認為我們應該能夠在第四季度或第一季為您提供更好的數據。

Our next question is from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

One of my goals for this evening is to get continuing education credits on U.S. tax law. And I really appreciate you taking all these questions. I have 1 more. It is a credit, right? So it's not a deduction of U.S. federal income tax, it's a credit. So whatever the amount is, this is a cash reduction of your operating costs, correct?

我今晚的目標之一是獲得美國稅法的繼續教育學分。我非常感謝您提出所有這些問題。我還有1個。這是信用，對嗎？所以這不是美國聯邦所得稅的扣除，而是抵免。因此，無論金額是多少，這都是您營運成本的現金減少，對嗎？

Well, Lucas, I think you know I used to be a lawyer. I wasn't a tax lawyer. So plenty of disclaimers around that, and I can't give any continuing credits directly. That said, you might imagine I have read the law. And again, until we have that guidance, this is all very preliminary, and we can't say for sure.

好吧，盧卡斯，我想你知道我曾經是一名律師。我不是稅務律師。圍繞這一點有很多免責聲明，我無法直接給出任何持續的信用。也就是說，你可能會認為我已經閱讀了法律。再說一次，在我們得到指導之前，這一切都非常初步，我們不能確定。

But what the law does provide is that for the first 5 years that a credit would be realized, that credit would be a direct pay, so a cash credit, or you're going to elect to have it via cash credit, if you're not otherwise a U.S. taxpayer, or you don't otherwise have U.S. tax -- enough U.S. taxable income during the period. After the first 5 years, that direct pay provision, that's phased out, and the tax credits become tradable.

但法律確實規定，在實現信用的前 5 年，該信用將是直接支付，因此是現金信用，或者您將選擇透過現金信用獲得，如果您「您不是美國納稅人，或者您在此期間沒有美國稅－足夠的美國應稅收入。前 5 年後，直接工資規定將逐步取消，稅收抵免將變得可交易。

Very helpful. Very helpful. I'll take those credits for continuing education. I really appreciate that.

很有幫助。很有幫助。我將把這些學分用於繼續教育。我真的很感激。

All right. Thanks, Lucas.

好的。謝謝，盧卡斯。

Our next question is from Timna Tanners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Timna Tanners。

Two quick follow-ups. One was that my team and I were kind of confused. Actually, we weren't 100% clear on how to think about the impact from Jamalco being closed, it sounds like, most of October. So if part of September was $16.9 million equipment failure, is it going to be an increased amount into the fourth quarter? And then assuming that's not going to be in your adjusted EBITDA, but just for our own calculations.

兩次快速跟進。一是我和我的團隊有點困惑。事實上，我們並沒有 100% 清楚如何考慮 Jamalco 關閉的影響，聽起來像是 10 月的大部分時間。那麼，如果 9 月的部分設備故障金額為 1,690 萬美元，那麼到第四季該金額是否會增加？然後假設這不會出現在調整後的 EBITDA 中，而只是用於我們自己的計算。

Thanks, Timna. Good question. It is in the guide what we expect for Q4 impact to be. So it's included in that guide.

謝謝，蒂姆納。好問題。我們在指南中預期了第四季的影響。所以它包含在該指南中。

Wait, but you excluded the Jamalco equipment failure from third quarter EBITDA guidance. So we didn't think that you would include it for the fourth quarter.

等等，但您將 Jamalco 設備故障排除在第三季 EBITDA 指導之外。所以我們認為您不會將其納入第四季。

Yes, it is excluded. But the impact -- sort of calculated as we run through those results, but it is adjusted out. That's correct. As you might imagine, kind of we haven't closed the books for October yet even so it's a bit difficult to say exactly what that will be. But we do expect that, at that point, we will have fully in through any deductibles, frankly, well before that. So all of that should be recoverable dollars, which is why we decided to test it out. Does that makes sense?

是的，它被排除在外。但影響——在我們瀏覽這些結果時已經計算出來了，但它已經被調整掉了。這是正確的。正如您可能想像的那樣，我們還沒有關閉 10 月的帳目，但很難確切地說出具體情況。但我們確實希望，到那時，我們將完全支付所有免賠額，坦白說，早在那之前。因此，所有這些都應該是可收回的美元，這就是我們決定對其進行測試的原因。這樣有道理嗎？

Okay. But you aren't going to -- but for the fourth quarter, you'll include it and not exclude it? Is that what you're saying?

好的。但你不會——但在第四季度，你會包括它而不是排除它？你是這麼說的嗎？

Sorry, no, no, we'll adjust it out. What -- I guess what I'm saying is, dollar for dollar, it should be included under the insurance policies, deductibles already have been well before that.

抱歉，不，不，我們會調整的。我想我想說的是，一美元一美元，它應該包含在保險單中，免賠額早在這之前就已經包含了。

Okay. But the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter, would you expect at larger similar, smaller? Just not clear on that dynamics given it's out for a longer period of time in October. Or do you not know? I'm sorry if that -- you know what I'm saying?

好的。但第四季相對於第三季度，您預計會更大、更小嗎？只是不清楚這種動態，因為十月的發佈時間較長。還是你不知道？我很抱歉——你知道我在說什麼嗎？

I understand. Sorry, I understand your question. I'm sorry, I understand your question now. It's a bit hard to relate it back to the previous period because the Q3 number had some impact from the June outage running through it. And -- so it's a bit hard to sort of compare there's a few different things going on there. So I think it's probably easier just to wait until the Q4 call. We'll give you the exact total what it turned out to be. But again, it should be fully covered under the insurance policy. So...

我明白。抱歉，我明白你的問題。抱歉，我現在明白你的問題了。很難將其與上一時期聯繫起來，因為第三季的數據受到了 6 月停電的影響。而且——所以很難比較那裡發生的一些不同的事情。所以我認為等到第四季電話會議可能會更容易。我們將為您提供準確的結果。但同樣，它應該完全包含在保險單中。所以...

Got it. Okay. One last thing, if I could. So the discussion is moving Mt. Holly total capacity makes me wonder if Ravenswood is becoming less likely to return? So I just wanted to ask about any updated thoughts there? And the longer that Ravenswood out doesn't that make it also more difficult to restart?

知道了。好的。最後一件事，如果可以的話。因此，關於移動霍利山總容量的討論讓我想知道拉文斯伍德回歸的可能性是否會變得越來越小？所以我只是想問一下那裡有什麼最新的想法嗎？拉文斯伍德缺席的時間越長，是否會導致重新開始變得更加困難？

Timna, you're showing how long you covered Century because you're referencing Ravenswood, which was in West Virginia, and it was permanently curtailed back in -- yes, 2008.

Timna，你展示了你報道《Century》的時間有多長，因為你引用的是位於西弗吉尼亞州的 Ravenswood，它在 2008 年就被永久縮減了。

Sorry. You know I meant Hawesville, I'm sorry, not Ravenswood. Yes, I'm sorry, it's Hawesville.

對不起。你知道我指的是霍斯維爾，對不起，不是雷文斯伍德。是的，抱歉，這裡是霍斯維爾。

But I know what you mean. Yes, I know. I know what you mean. So no, no real comment on Hawesville at all. Obviously, it's much easier to take action at an operating smelter like Mt. Holly than it is to restart a curtailed smelter like Hawesville. And so when we look at options going forward, I think it will be pretty consistent that you'll see us talk about Mt. Holly is the first option to add production, but it's really not a comment on the future prospects of Hawesville at all.

但我知道你的意思。是的，我知道。我明白你的意思。所以不，對霍斯維爾根本沒有真正的評論。顯然，對像 Mt. Holly 這樣的正在運營的冶煉廠採取行動比重啟像 Hawesville 這樣的被削減的冶煉廠要容易得多。因此，當我們考慮未來的選擇時，我認為您會看到我們談論Mt. Holly 是增加產量的第一個選擇，這將是相當一致的，但這實際上根本不是對霍斯維爾未來前景的評論。

There are no more questions, so I'll pass the call back over to the management team for closing remarks.

沒有更多問題了，所以我會將電話轉回管理團隊進行總結發言。

Thanks, everyone. We really appreciate the questions, and we look forward to talking to you in February for our Q4 call. Thanks.

感謝大家。我們非常感謝您提出的問題，並期待在 2 月的第四季度電話會議中與您交談。謝謝。

That concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。