嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. This is Beth Roberts, SVP Investor Relations. Welcome to our Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein, our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison.

早安.我是貝絲‧羅伯茲 (Beth Roberts)，投資人關係資深副總裁。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天我們的執行長喬許‧韋恩斯坦 (Josh Weinstein)、財務長大衛‧伯恩斯坦 (David Bernstein) 也加入了我的行列。還有我們的主席米基·阿里森。

Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release. All references to ticket prices, net per diem, net yields and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated.

在我們開始之前，請注意，我們在本次電話會議上的一些評論將具有前瞻性。因此，我將向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。除非另有說明，所有提及的票價、每日淨津貼、淨收益和調整後不含燃料的遊輪成本均採用固定匯率。

References to per diems and yields will be on a net basis. Our comments may also reference cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, net loss, earnings per share, free cash flow and ROIC all of which will be on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise stated.

每日津貼和收益率的參考將基於淨值。我們的評論也可能參考不含燃料的遊輪成本、EBITDA、淨收入、淨虧損、每股收益、自由現金流和ROIC，除非另有說明，所有這些都將在調整後的基礎上進行。

All these references are non-GAAP financial measures defined in our earnings press release. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are also contained in our earnings press release and in our investor presentation. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.

所有這些參考資料都是我們的收益新聞稿中定義的非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹中還包含了與最直接可比較的美國公認會計準則財務指標和其他相關揭露的調節。請造訪我們的公司網站，在那裡可以找到我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給喬希。

Thank you, Beth. It's safe to say we ended the year on a high note and closed another quarter with record revenues, record booking levels and record customer deposits. In fact, we consistently set records in all 4 quarters this past year. We also achieved per diem EBITDA and net income for the fourth quarter that all exceeded the high end of our September guidance range with cruise cost ex fuel in line with expectations.

謝謝你，貝絲。可以肯定地說，我們以高調結束了這一年，並以創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的預訂水平和創紀錄的客戶存款結束了另一個季度。事實上，我們在去年的所有四個季度都連續創下了記錄。我們還實現了第四季度的每日息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 和淨利潤，均超過了我們 9 月份指導範圍的上限，且不含燃油的遊輪成本符合預期。

Fourth quarter yields continued on a positive trajectory, significantly higher than a very strong 2019 and even higher than we had anticipated and enabled us to overcome 4 years of high cost inflation to deliver per unit EBITDA that eclipsed 2019 holding fuel and currency constant.

第四季殖利率持續保持正向成長，顯著高於2019 年的強勁表現，甚至高於我們的預期，使我們能夠克服4 年來的高成本通膨，在燃料和貨幣不變的情況下，單位EBITDA 超過2019 年。

It was encouraged to see both North American and European brand occupancy levels exceed 101% in the fourth quarter. With per diems for our North American brands up double digits over 2019, and our European brands just shy of a double-digit increase. We delivered per diem improvements of more than 7 points for the full year with even stronger acceleration in Q4 and while closing the double-digit occupancy gap at the start of the year to reach historical levels for the second half of 2023. An absolute spending on board was consistent across all 4 quarters as we drove improvement in ticket prices.

令人鼓舞的是，第四季北美和歐洲品牌佔有率均超過 101%。 2019 年，我們北美品牌的每日津貼增加了兩位數，而我們歐洲品牌的每日津貼僅接近兩位數成長。我們全年的每日每日津貼改善超過 7 個百分點，第四季度的加速更加強勁，同時縮小了年初兩位數的入住率差距，在 2023 年下半年達到歷史水平。隨著我們推動門票價格的改善，董事會在所有4 個季度保持一致。

We delivered $85 million more to the bottom line in the fourth quarter than forecasted, which pushed us through to positive adjusted income for the year. Strong EBITDA and cash from operations also propelled us on our journey to reduce the debt load necessitated during the pause in operations.

我們第四季的淨利潤比預期多了 8500 萬美元，這推動我們今年的調整後收入為正值。強勁的 EBITDA 和營運現金也推動我們減少營運暫停期間所需的債務負擔。

We made debt payments of $6 billion this year alone. And we still have well over $5 billion of liquidity, on top of strong and improving cash flow, which will contribute to further debt reduction over time.

光是今年我們就償還了 60 億美元的債務。除了強勁且不斷改善的現金流之外，我們仍然擁有超過 50 億美元的流動性，這將有助於隨著時間的推移進一步減少債務。

All of this leaves us firmly placed on our path back to achieve investment-grade leverage metrics by 2026. And most importantly, our brands delivered happiness to over 12 million guests this year. Laying the foundation upon which all of our SEA Change [targets] are built.

所有這些都讓我們堅定地走在 2026 年實現投資等級槓桿指標的道路上。最重要的是，我們的品牌今年為超過 1,200 萬客人帶來了快樂。為我們所有的 SEA 變革[目標]奠定基礎。

Turning to bookings. We reached an all-time high in booking volumes for the 2 weeks around Black Friday and Cyber Monday and ended the year in the best booked position we have ever seen on both price and occupancies setting 2024 off to an amazing start. We now have nearly 2/3 of the business on the books for 2024 and at considerably higher prices.

轉向預訂。在黑色星期五和網路星期一前後的兩週內，我們的預訂量達到了歷史最高水平，並以我們所見過的價格和入住率方面的最佳預訂位置結束了這一年，為2024 年開啟了一個驚人的開局。目前，我們有近 2/3 的 2024 年業務已在帳上，而且價格要高得多。

And during the fourth quarter, we essentially maintained the significant occupancy advantage we have built for 2024 going into the quarter, while improving year-over-year price position of our booked business even further. At this point, much of the first half is already behind us, with approximately 85% of the business on the books, we've essentially closed with double-digit occupancy gap to historical levels on higher capacity and at higher prices.

在第四季度，我們基本上保持了為 2024 年進入該季度建立的顯著入住率優勢，同時進一步改善了我們預訂業務的同比價格地位。至此，上半年的大部分時間已經過去，帳面上大約有 85% 的業務，我們基本上以兩位數的入住率差距縮小到了歷史水平，因為容量更大、價格更高。

For our peak summer period, all major products are better booked at higher prices benefiting from improving trends in both occupancy and price during the fourth quarter.

在我們的夏季高峰期，受益於第四季度入住率和價格趨勢的改善，所有主要產品都以更高的價格預訂。

Our yield management strategy, the baseload bookings has clearly set us up for another record year. And again, we have seen no sign of our business slowing. The book position for our North American brands remains as far out as we have ever seen and well ahead of last year at pricing that is considerably higher.

我們的收益管理策略、基荷預訂量顯然為我們創造了另一個創紀錄的年份。同樣，我們沒有看到我們的業務放緩的跡象。我們北美品牌的帳面排名仍然是我們所見過的最遠的，並且遠遠領先去年，定價要高得多。

Our European brands just delivered record fourth quarter booking volume at considerably higher prices and with a booking window now fully back to historical norms. As expected, our European brands are poised to become an even greater contributor to our 2024 operating improvement.

我們的歐洲品牌剛剛以相當高的價格交付了創紀錄的第四季度預訂量，預訂窗口現已完全恢復到歷史正常水平。正如預期的那樣，我們的歐洲品牌將成為我們 2024 年營運改善的更大貢獻者。

At the same time, we are continuing to pull forward onboard revenue through bundling and P&O cruise sales. This strategy, coupled with even more features onboard our newer shifts for our guests to enjoy positions us well for further onboard revenue growth next year.

同時，我們繼續透過捆綁銷售和 P&O 郵輪銷售來拉動船上收入。這項策略，再加上我們新班次為乘客提供的更多功能，為我們明年的船上收入進一步成長奠定了良好的基礎。

Also, we expect occupancy for the full year to return to historical levels on 5% higher capacity while delivering nicely higher per diem building on this year's record results. In 2023, we captured over 3.5 million new-to-cruise guests and remain well positioned to continue to take share from land-based alternatives. In other words, we are gaining momentum in our ability to close the unwarranted value gap to land-based alternatives. And to aid in that effort, we can further (inaudible) the fact that while many land-based alternatives have pulled back on service levels. We still deliver incredible service to our guests, thanks to our amazing crew. This pair is exceedingly well with the expansive amount of guest-pleasing amenities offered onboard our newer fleet.

此外，我們預計全年入住率將恢復到歷史水平，運力增加 5%，同時在今年創紀錄的業績基礎上提供更高的每日津貼。到 2023 年，我們吸引了超過 350 萬新遊輪客人，並保持有利地位，繼續從陸上替代方案中奪取市場份額。換句話說，我們正在增強縮小與陸基替代品之間不必要的價值差距的能力。為了幫助這項努力，我們可以進一步（聽不清楚）這樣一個事實：儘管許多陸上替代方案已經降低了服務水準。感謝我們出色的工作人員，我們仍然為客人提供令人難以置信的服務。這對飛機非常適合我們新機隊提供的大量令客人滿意的設施。

In fact, while almost 4 years have passed since the pause in our operations. Our fleet actually came out of the pause a year younger through our fleet optimization efforts. This past year alone, we benefited from 3 fantastic new ships including Carnival Celebration and P&O Cruises Arvia, both of which are flagships for their respective brands yet leverage our scale as the 7 and 8 vessels in our popular and exceptionally efficient series of Excel class ships, and we welcome seaborne Pursuit, our second expedition ship. Seaborne has truly raised the bar for expedition cruising in extreme luxury.

事實上，自我們暫停營運以來已經過去了近 4 年。透過我們的機隊優化工作，我們的機隊實際上年輕了一歲。光是去年，我們就受益於3 艘出色的新船，包括Carnival Celebration 和P&O Cruises Arvia，這兩艘船都是各自品牌的旗艦，但在我們廣受歡迎且效率極高的Excel 級船舶系列中，我們的規模為7 艘和8 艘船，我們歡迎海上追擊號，我們的第二艘探險船。 Seaborne 真正提高了極致奢華探險巡航的標準。

And while not technically new, Carnival Cruise Line also welcome Carnival Venezia into its fun Italian-style platform via the transfer from Costa and it has been going gangbusters. It's the biggest example yet of how we leverage our scale and we'll be doubling down when we bring over her sister ship Carnival Firenze in 2024.

雖然在技術上並不新鮮，但嘉年華遊輪公司也歡迎威尼斯嘉年華號透過科斯塔轉乘進入其有趣的意大利風格平台，並且一直表現強勁。這是迄今為止我們如何利用規模的最大例子，當我們在 2024 年接管她的姐妹船“佛羅倫薩嘉年華”時，我們將加倍努力。

Looking forward, this year is set to match the excitement level with the introduction of Carnival Jubilee a new icon for Carnival Cruise Line and which no doubt will be the pride of Texas as she has her inaugural home in Galveston. The innovative Sun Princess the first of its class and a real game changer for Princess. And Queen Anne, a new flagship for Queen Anne and its first new ship in 14 years. With all of these additions, roughly 30% of our capacity will be newly delivered ships.

展望未來，今年將推出嘉年華郵輪公司的新標誌嘉年華銀禧號，這無疑將成為德克薩斯州的驕傲，因為她的首個家位於加爾維斯頓。創新的太陽公主號是同類產品中的第一艘，也是公主號真正的遊戲規則改變者。還有安妮女王號，這是安妮女王號的新旗艦，也是 14 年來的第一艘新船。加上所有這些新增船舶，我們約 30% 的運力將是新交付的船舶。

We also made meaningful headway on other strategic asset projects. We began construction on Celebration Key which will be the largest and closest exclusive destination in our destination portfolio and a real game changer for Carnival Cruise Line. We'll bring 18 Carnival ships departing from 9 home ports to Celebration Key. And while we are still about 1.5 years from go-live, we are already ramping up the awareness and the excitement around this fantastic destination.

我們也在其他策略性資產項目上取得了有意義的進展。我們開始建造 Celebration Key，這將是我們目的地組合中最大、最近的專屬目的地，也是嘉年華遊輪公司真正的遊戲規則改變者。我們將從 9 個母港出發的 18 艘嘉年華船隻抵達慶典島。雖然距離上線還有 1.5 年左右的時間，但我們已經在提高人們對這個夢幻目的地的認知度和興奮度。

We've also started the process for a significant upside in guest traffic at Half Moon Cay our exclusive and beautiful pristine island destination in the Bahamas with the creation of a peer side berth that can accommodate even our largest vessels. We've begun work with our Grand Bahamas shipyard partners, on the construction of 2 floating dry docks, one of which will have the largest lifting capacity in the world. This will result in significant benefit in the future as we reduce travel time, preserve revenue days, and, at the same time, reduce our fuel consumption.

我們也開始在巴哈馬群島獨特而美麗的原始島嶼目的地半月島建立一個可容納我們最大的船隻的對等泊位，以顯著提高遊客流量。我們已開始與大巴哈馬造船廠合作夥伴合作建造 2 個浮動乾船塢，其中之一將擁有世界上最大的起重能力。這將為我們在未來帶來顯著的效益，因為我們可以減少旅行時間，保留收入天數，同時減少燃料消耗。

As you know, we've also been investing more in advertising over the last 18 months, and it has definitely paid off with elevated awareness and consideration for our brand and record booking levels and revenue results.

如您所知，過去 18 個月我們在廣告方面投入了更多資金，這無疑帶來了回報，提高了我們品牌的認知度和考慮度，並創下了預訂水平和收入結果。

In fiscal 2023, our web visits were up over 35%. Our paid search was up roughly 50% and our natural search was up almost 75%, all many, many multiples of our 5% capacity growth.

2023 財年，我們的網路訪問量增加了 35% 以上。我們的付費搜尋成長了大約 50%，自然搜尋成長了近 75%，是我們 5% 容量成長的許多倍。

In the fourth quarter, we carried more new-to-cruise, and more new-to-brand guests than we did in the fourth quarter of 2019. Given our success on generating demand at this point in time, we plan to maintain a similar level of advertising on a unit basis in 2024 compared to 2023, optimizing around each brand. This will help us continue to build demand and bookings well outside of the current year.

與 2019 年第四季相比，第四季度我們搭載了更多的新遊輪和新品牌客人。鑑於我們此時在創造需求方面取得的成功，我們計劃保持類似的水平與2023 年相比，2024年單位廣告水平，圍繞每個品牌進行優化。這將幫助我們在今年之外繼續增加需求和預訂。

We're working aggressively to keep our strong momentum going through wave season and beyond. Just to list a few examples, Costa recently launched spectacular new campaign in its core markets, focusing on moments, where guests are less speechless. Poland America launched a sequel to its highly successful time of your life campaign and AIDA just kicked off its new campaign experience yourself differently in conjunction with the holiday. Carnival will launch a new marketing campaign highlighting Celebration Key in time to wave P&O Cruises new campaign, holiday like never before, launches Christmas Day in the U.K. and Cunard has planned to welcome fit for our Queen to introduce Queen Anne early next year, which is short to capture huge fanfare. We've been talking about upping our game across the commercial space and we've made good progress. Of course, we're not done. And as you'd expect, we never will as there is always room to improve.

我們正在積極努力，以在波浪季節及以後保持強勁的勢頭。僅舉幾個例子，Costa 最近在其核心市場推出了引人注目的新活動，重點關注客人不那麼無語的時刻。波蘭美國推出了其非常成功的「人生時刻」活動的續集，AIDA 剛剛在假期期間以不同的方式推出了新的活動體驗。嘉年華將推出一項新的行銷活動，突出慶祝關鍵，及時推出 P&O 遊輪新活動，前所未有的假期，在英國推出聖誕節，冠達航空計劃在明年初迎接我們的女王介紹安妮女王，這是短片捕捉大張旗鼓。我們一直在討論提高我們在商業領域的競爭力，並且我們已經取得了良好的進展。當然，我們還沒完成。正如您所期望的那樣，我們永遠不會這樣做，因為總是有改進的空間。

There's much more to come as we roll out advancements to our yield management tools and lead generation techniques continue to invest in sales and sales support and build on already strong relationships with our trade partners.

隨著我們推出收益管理工具和潛在客戶開發技術的進步，繼續投資銷售和銷售支持，並與我們的貿易夥伴建立業已牢固的關係，還有更多的事情要做。

Turning to costs. As we previously indicated, unit cruise cost ex fuel for 2024 are expected to be higher than inflation due to the impact of closing the occupancy gap and the higher volume from dry dock days. David will walk you through in more detail.

轉向成本。正如我們先前指出的，由於縮小入住率差距和乾船塢日運量增加的影響，2024 年的單位郵輪成本（不含燃料）預計將高於通貨膨脹。大衛將向您詳細介紹。

With that said, we have been working aggressively to mitigate inflation through our cost optimization initiatives, including leveraging our scale. In some cases, we're investing today for future benefits. Just to cite a couple of examples of initiatives underway, we're essentially complete with the rollout of Starlink across the fleet. This will produce more than a 20% reduction in cost per megabit in 2024 and significantly increase our bandwidth pipeline, resulting in both better guest experience and higher onboard revenues, a clear win-win. And with our new vendor-neutral platform, we are positioned to quickly capture cost savings in future years.

話雖如此，我們一直在積極努力透過成本優化措施（包括利用我們的規模）來緩解通貨膨脹。在某些情況下，我們今天的投資是為了未來的利益。僅舉幾個正在進行的舉措的例子，我們基本上已經完成了在整個機隊中推出星鏈的工作。這將使 2024 年每兆位元成本降低 20% 以上，並顯著增加我們的頻寬管道，從而帶來更好的賓客體驗和更高的機上收入，這是明顯的雙贏。借助我們新的供應商中立平台，我們能夠在未來幾年快速節省成本。

We've also launched our maritime asset strategy transformation or what we refer to internally as MAS. MAS is a centralized system developed to optimize the management of equipment and machinery across all brands and all of our ships. MAS will allow us to leverage spare parts more effectively across the entire fleet and optimize our maintenance schedules and practices, all of which will strengthen our efficiency and reduce unplanned maintenance over time.

我們也啟動了海事資產策略轉型，或者我們內部稱之為 MAS。 MAS 是一個集中式系統，旨在優化所有品牌和所有船舶的設備和機械管理。 MAS 將使我們能夠在整個機隊中更有效地利用備件，並優化我們的維護計劃和實踐，所有這些都將隨著時間的推移提高我們的效率並減少計劃外維護。

While we won't see the P&L benefits from MAS this year as we ramp up implementation in 2024, we expect a multiyear benefit well in excess of $100 million that really begins to ramp up in 2026. All of the efforts we're making to drive revenue and manage costs are expected to lead to a 4-point margin improvement in 2024.

雖然隨著我們在 2024 年加強實施力度，今年我們不會看到 MAS 帶來的損益效益，但我們預計多年效益將遠遠超過 1 億美元，並在 2026 年真正開始增加。推動收入和管理成本預計將導致2024 年利潤率提高4 個百分點。

We're guiding to record EBITDA of over $5.5 billion which is 30% higher than 2023. Thanks to a strong second half of 2023, we're already tracking ahead of our plan to achieve SEA Change, our 3-year financial targets calling for the highest ROIC and EBITDA for ALBD in nearly 2 decades, and our 2024 guidance delivers another step change toward these deliverables. EBITDA per berth day is expected to be up by more than 25% over our target starting point, hence, more than halfway to the 50% increase expected in our SEA Change targets.

我們的目標是 EBITDA 超過 55 億美元，比 2023 年高出 30%。由於 2023 年下半年的強勁表現，我們已經在提前實現 SEA 變革的計劃，我們的 3 年財務目標要求ALBD 達到近2年來最高的ROIC 和EBITDA，我們的2024 年指引為這些可交付成果帶來了一步的改變。每個泊位日的 EBITDA 預計將比我們的目標起點增加 25% 以上，因此，是我們 SEA Change 目標中預期成長 50% 的一半以上。

Today's guidance will also deliver 9% ROIC, a 4-point increase from the starting point of our target. This leaves just 1.5 point annual increases in 2025 and 2026, to hit our 12% target. Not surprisingly, our brand dedicated to a single market, Carnival, AIDA and P&O Cruises in the U.K. are again leading the charge with the highest ROIC levels in the company.

今天的指引也將實現 9% 的 ROIC，比我們的目標起點提高了 4 個百分點。這使得 2025 年和 2026 年的年增長率僅為 1.5 個百分點，即可達到我們 12% 的目標。毫不奇怪，我們致力於單一市場的品牌——英國的嘉年華 (Carnival)、AIDA 和 P&O Cruises 再次以公司最高的投資回報率 (ROIC) 水平領先。

And with regard to our greenhouse gas target included in our 2026 SEA Change program, our GHD intensity in 2024 is expected to be just shy of the 20% reduction from 2019 or targeted. It is worth noting, this was a 2030 goal we had already pulled forward by 4 years. We have been and continue to work aggressively to reduce our environmental footprint and fuel costs at the same time. This deep commitment has not only resulted in industry-leading fuel efficiency, it has also resulted in lower absolute GHG emissions. Our absolute emissions are over 10% lower than the 2011 peak and that's despite capacity growth of 30% since then.

至於我們 2026 年 SEA 變革計畫中包含的溫室氣體目標，我們 2024 年的 GHD 強度預計將略低於 2019 年或目標的 20% 減少量。值得注意的是，這個2030年的目標已經提早了4年。我們一直並將繼續積極努力，同時減少我們的環境足跡和燃料成本。這項堅定的承諾不僅帶來了業界領先的燃油效率，也降低了絕對溫室氣體排放量。儘管自那時起產能成長了 30%，但我們的絕對排放量仍比 2011 年高峰低 10% 以上。

Last year, we also exceeded our industry-leading shore power capability goals. We are ahead of the curve and now have twice as many ships capable of shore power than there are ports around the world available to plug in.

去年，我們也超越了業界領先的岸電能力目標。我們處於領先地位，現在擁有岸電能力的船舶數量是世界各地可供充電的港口的兩倍。

Again, I credit all of these important achievements to our people, ship and shore. Collectively, they continue to outperform, allowing us to make good headway on our SEA Change target. We're poised for another step change in operating improvement this year with nearly 2/3 of the business on the books at considerable higher prices, ongoing momentum from improvements across the commercial space, the amazing vacation experiences we deliver day in, day out at way too good of a relative value to land-based alternatives and an even greater experience gap, all while growing onboard revenues and managing costs. All of this combined sets us up well to deliver another year of record revenues and record EBITDA.

我再次將所有這些重要成就歸功於我們的人民、船隻和海岸。總的來說，它們繼續表現出色，使我們能夠在 SEA 變革目標上取得良好進展。今年，我們準備在營運改善方面再次邁出一步，近 2/3 的帳面業務價格相當高，整個商業領域的改進帶來持續的動力，我們日復一日地提供令人驚嘆的度假體驗與陸上替代方案相比，其相對價值太大，而且經驗差距更大，同時增加了船上收入並管理成本。所有這些結合在一起，使我們能夠在新的一年中實現創紀錄的收入和創紀錄的 EBITDA。

Our cash flow strength, coupled with excess liquidity, the return of credit card reserves in a few weeks and the lowest order book in decades will allow us to continue to actively manage down debt and aggressively reduce interest expense over time. It will also propel us on our path to deleveraging, investment-grade credit rating and higher ROIC. I remain confident in our continued execution with an unparalleled portfolio of best-in-class brands and amazing fleet that just keeps getting better and better, and our greatest assets are people.

我們的現金流實力，加上流動性過剩、幾週內信用卡準備金的返還以及幾十年來最低的訂單量，將使我們能夠繼續積極管理債務，並隨著時間的推移大幅減少利息支出。它還將推動我們走上去槓桿化、投資級信用評級和更高投資回報率的道路。我對我們的持續執行充滿信心，擁有無與倫比的一流品牌組合和不斷變得更好的令人驚嘆的機隊，而我們最大的資產是人才。

This has been a truly remarkable year, and we've come a long way in an incredibly short amount of time. I would like to thank our team members, ship and shore the best in all of travel and leisure for delivering unforgettable happiness to over 12 million guests this year by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations. For honoring the integrity of every ocean we sail, place we visit and life we touch. And thank you for the strong support from our travel agent partners as well as our loyal guests, destination partners, investors and many other stakeholders.

今年確實是非凡的一年，我們在極短的時間內取得了長足的進步。我要感謝我們的團隊成員，他們是旅遊和休閒行業中最出色的船岸團隊成員，今年為超過 1200 萬客人提供了非凡的郵輪假期，為他們帶來了難忘的快樂。為了尊重我們航行的每一個海洋、我們所造訪的地方和我們接觸過的生活的完整性。感謝我們的旅行社合作夥伴以及我們的忠實客人、目的地合作夥伴、投資者和許多其他利害關係人的大力支持。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

這樣，我就把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our 2023 fourth quarter and full year results. Next, I will provide a recap of our refinancing and deleveraging efforts during 2023. And finish off with some color on our 2024 full year and first quarter December guidance.

謝謝你，喬許。今天我將先總結 2023 年第四季和全年業績。接下來，我將回顧 2023 年我們的再融資和去槓桿化工作。並以我們的 2024 年全年和第一季 12 月指引為結尾。

Our fourth quarter bottom line exceeded the better end of our guidance range as we outperformed our September guidance. The $85 million improvement was driven by favorability in revenue from higher ticket prices as net per diems were up over 10%, 3 points better than the midpoint of our September guidance range. In fact, fourth quarter revenues of $5.4 billion were a fourth quarter record and net yields were up nearly 8% as compared to 2019, a great way to close out the year and another indication that we do not see a slowdown in our consumers.

我們第四季的獲利超出了指導範圍的上限，因為我們的表現優於 9 月的指導。 8500 萬美元的增長是由於門票價格上漲帶來的收入有利，因為每日津貼淨額增長了 10% 以上，比我們 9 月份指導範圍的中位數高出 3 個百分點。事實上，第四季營收達到54 億美元，創第四季紀錄，淨殖利率較2019 年成長近8%，這是結束這一年的好方法，也顯示我們的消費者消費並未放緩。

For the full year, thanks to the tremendous efforts of our team members, ship and shore, we closed the books on 2023 with positive adjusted net income. That is an archive from our March guidance as we delivered over $550 million to the bottom line, which was partially offset by a drag of fuel price and currency exchange rates of over $100 million.

全年來看，在我們團隊成員、船岸人員的巨大努力下，我們在 2023 年結下了帳目，調整後淨利為正。這是我們 3 月指引的存檔，當時我們實現了超過 5.5 億美元的淨利潤，但部分被燃料價格和貨幣匯率超過 1 億美元的拖累所抵銷。

The improvement was driven by delivering a 7.5% increase in net revenue per diem versus 2019, which was over double the 3.5% midpoint of our March guidance while closing the double-digit occupancy gap at the start of the year to reach historical occupancy levels.

這項改善的推動因素是每日淨收入較2019 年增長了7.5%，是我們3 月份指導值3.5% 中位數的兩倍多，同時縮小了年初兩位數的入住率差距，達到了歷史入住率水平。

Absolute spending per diems onboard were consistent across all 4 quarters as we drove improvements in ticket prices on both sides of the Atlantic and ended the year with net yields of nearly 1% over 2019.

隨著我們推動大西洋兩岸機票價格的改善，船上每日每日絕對支出在所有 4 個季度保持一致，並在年底實現了比 2019 年近 1% 的淨收益率。

Next, I will provide a recap of our refinancing and deleveraging efforts during 2023. As Josh indicated, our full year 2023 strong EBITDA of $4.2 billion and strong cash from operations of $4.3 billion, propelled us on our journey to pay down debt and reduced the debt effort necessitated by the pause in guest cruise operations.

接下來，我將回顧2023 年我們的再融資和去槓桿化工作。正如Josh 所說，我們2023 年全年強勁的EBITDA 為42 億美元，營運現金為43 億美元，推動我們踏上償還債務的旅程，並減少了債務負擔。賓客遊輪營運暫停而需要償還債務。

During 2023, we made debt payments of $6 million and ended the year with just over $30 billion of debt which is $3 billion better than we forecasted just 9 months ago during our March conference call and almost $5 billion of the first quarter peak, transferring enterprise value from debt holders to shareholders.

2023 年，我們支付了600 萬美元的債務，年底債務略高於300 億美元，比我們9 個月前在3 月份電話會議上的預測高出30 億美元，比第一季的高峰高出近50 億美元，企業轉移從債權人到股東的價值。

During 2023, we proactively addressed our debt profile as we successfully started our refinancing and deleveraging program. We accelerated our debt repayment efforts and aggressively manage down our interest expense.

2023年，我們成功啟動再融資和去槓桿計劃，積極解決債務問題。我們加快償債力度，積極控制利息支出。

In 2023, we effectively stretched out a 2025 maturity on favorable terms by replacing it with a $1.3 billion term loan B facility to 2027 and a $500 million offering of senior secured notes through 2029. This refinancing, along with our optimism about our future and the return of customer deposit reserves gave us the confidence to accelerate our debt repayment by calling $1.2 billion of our highest cost debt.

2023 年，我們以優惠條件有效延長了2025 年的期限，代之以13 億美元的定期貸款B 融資至2027 年，並在2029 年之前發行了5 億美元的高級擔保票據。這次再融資，以及我們對未來和未來的樂觀態度。客戶存款準備金的回饋讓我們有信心透過收回 12 億美元成本最高的債務來加速償還債務。

In addition, we opportunistically prepaid $2.8 billion of additional debt for a total of $4 billion of debt repayments, including the $1.2 billion of debt cost.

此外，我們還趁機預付了28億美元的額外債務，總共償還了40億美元的債務，其中包括12億美元的債務成本。

Our credit card processes returned to us $800 million of credit card reserves and we now expect an additional $800 million to be returned this current quarter, representing substantially all of the remaining credit card reserves at year-end.

我們的信用卡流程返還了 8 億美元的信用卡準備金，我們現在預計本季將額外返還 8 億美元，幾乎相當於年底的所有剩餘信用卡準備金。

We took actions in both 2022 and early in 2023 to increase the fixed rate percentage of our debt portfolio to over 80%, up significantly from our 58% fixed levels at the end of 2021, which provided us protection from rising interest rates.

我們在 2022 年和 2023 年初採取了行動，將債務組合的固定利率百分比提高到 80% 以上，顯著高於 2021 年底 58% 的固定水平，這為我們提供了免受利率上升影響的保護。

Our overall average interest rate is just over 5.5%. All these actions to address our debt profile alongside our improved business performance, drove $200 million of interest savings compared to our March guidance.

我們的整體平均利率略高於5.5%。與我們 3 月的指導相比，所有這些旨在解決我們債務狀況的行動以及改善的業務績效，節省了 2 億美元的利息。

Our maturity towers have been well managed in 2026 with just $2.1 billion of debt maturities next year, $2.2 billion in 2025 and $3.2 billion in 2026. And looking forward, we will continue to evaluate refinancing opportunities and opportunistically prepay additional debt. So in 2024, we will be replacing higher cost fixed rate debt with lower-cost export credit financing as we take delivery of ships during 2024.

我們的到期塔在2026 年得到了良好的管理，明年的債務到期額僅為21 億美元，2025 年為22 億美元，2026 年為32 億美元。展望未來，我們將繼續評估再融資機會，並伺機提前償還額外債務。因此，到 2024 年，隨著我們在 2024 年接收船舶，我們將以成本較低的出口信貸融資取代成本較高的固定利率債務。

Our leverage metrics will also continue to improve throughout 2024 as our EBITDA continues to grow.

隨著我們的 EBITDA 持續成長，我們的槓桿指標也將在 2024 年持續改善。

Now turning to our 2024 full year December guidance. We are forecasting a capacity increase of about 5.5% compared to 2023. We are expecting to deliver strong 2024 net yield improvement with our guidance forecasting an increase of approximately 8.5% for the full year 2024 when compared to 2023. And that is on top of our improved 2023 results where we delivered a 7.5% increase in net revenue per diem versus 2019.

現在轉向我們的 2024 年全年 12 月指引。我們預計與 2023 年相比，產能將成長約 5.5%。我們預計 2024 年淨收益率將實現強勁增長，我們的指導預測 2024 年全年將比 2023 年增長約 8.5%。我們的2023 年業績有所改善，每日淨收入比2019 年成長了7.5%。

The strong improvement in 2024 net yields is a result of the increase in all the component parts, higher ticket prices, higher onboard spending and higher occupancy with all 3 components improving both sides of the Atlantic.

2024 年淨收益率的強勁改善是由於所有組成部分的成長、票價上漲、船上支出增加以及大西洋兩岸所有 3 個組成部分的入住率提高所致。

We are well positioned to drive 2024 ticket pricing higher with significantly less inventory remaining to sell as the same time last year despite a capacity increase of over 5%. Occupancy for the full year 2024 is on track to return to historical levels.

儘管運力增加了 5% 以上，但與去年同期相比，剩餘待售庫存顯著減少，我們有能力推動 2024 年門票價格上漲。 2024 年全年入住率可望恢復到歷史水準。

Keep in mind, 2019 was a high watermark for occupancy. For 2024, we forecast to be well within our historical occupancy range as we balance pricing value to optimize total revenues and achieve record yields.

請記住，2019 年的入住率達到了很高的水平。到 2024 年，我們預計入住率將完全在歷史入住率範圍內，因為我們將平衡定價價值以優化總收入並實現創紀錄的收益率。

Now turning to costs. Cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day per ALBD, is currently expected to be up approximately 4.5% for 2024 versus 2023.

現在轉向成本。目前預計 2024 年每可用下舖日每 ALBD 不含燃油的遊輪成本將比 2023 年增加約 4.5%。

Broadly speaking, there are 4 main drivers of the cost change. First, our forecast is for decelerating inflation but nonetheless, inflation with an average 3.5% increase across all our cost categories globally. Second, with occupancy returning to historical levels, the impact on cost should be 1.5 to 2 percentage points higher in 2024 as compared to 2023. Third, in 2024, we are expecting 586 dry dock days, an increase of 14% versus 2023, which is expected to impact our overall year-over-year cost comparisons by about 3/4 of a point. And four, countering these headwinds, we expect these cost increases will be somewhat mitigated by a couple of points, given the economies of scale from our capacity growth, which is enhanced by taking delivery of larger, more efficient ships, along with various other cost optimization initiatives.

一般來說，成本變化有四個主要驅動因素。首先，我們的預測是通膨放緩，但儘管如此，全球所有成本類別的通膨仍將平均成長 3.5%。其次，隨著入住率恢復到歷史水平，2024年對成本的影響應比2023年高1.5至2個百分點。第三，2024年，我們預計幹船塢天數為586天，比2023年增加14%，預計將影響我們的整體年比成本比較約3/4 個百分點。第四，應對這些不利因素，考慮到我們的運力成長所帶來的規模經濟（透過接收更大、更有效率的船舶以及各種其他成本來增強），我們預計這些成本增加將在一定程度上減輕幾個百分點優化舉措。

Fuel consumption per ALBD is expected to decrease another 4%, and that is on top of the 15.5% reduction achieved from 2019 to 2023. And that impact of fuel price and currency is expected to favorably impact 2024 by $90 million with lower fuel pricing favorable by $94 million while the change in currency exchange rates slightly goes the other way.

在2019 年至2023 年減少15.5% 的基礎上，每個ALBD 的燃料消耗預計將再減少4%。燃料價格和貨幣的影響預計將對2024 年產生9000 萬美元的有利影響，較低的燃料價格有利9,400 萬美元，而貨幣匯率的變動則略有相反。

And finally, a few things to note about the outsized increases in the first quarter 2024. A higher net yield guidance for first quarter 2024 of 16.5% versus the full year, 8.5% is driven by the larger improvement in first quarter occupancy.

最後，關於2024 年第一季的大幅成長，需要注意一些事項。2024 年第一季的淨收益率指導值較全年16.5% 更高，其中8.5% 是由第一季入住率的較大改善推動的。

Let's not forget that we did not reach historical occupancy levels until the second half of 2023. So there is much more occupancy-driven net yield opportunity in the first half.

我們不要忘記，我們直到 2023 年下半年才達到歷史入住率水準。因此，上半年有更多由入住率驅動的淨收益率機會。

On the cost side, the higher cruise cost without fuel per available lower berth day guidance for the first quarter of 2024 and 9.5% is driven by 4 main factors. First, the largest improvement in occupancy will occur in the first quarter. And while it drives greater yield increases in the first quarter, it also drives greater cost increases, which means a total of 3% to 4% cost drag in the quarter.

在成本方面，2024 年第一季每可用下泊位日指導的不含燃油的郵輪成本較高，達 9.5%，這是由 4 個主要因素驅動的。首先，入住率最大的改善將出現在第一季。雖然它推動了第一季產量的更大成長，但也推動了成本的更大成長，這意味著該季度總共出現了 3% 至 4% 的成本拖累。

Second, while dry dock costs impact our full year guidance, the seasonality of dry dock costs in the first quarter 2024 as compared to the prior year drives a cost increase of about 1.5 points for this quarter.

其次，雖然乾船塢成本影響我們的全年指引，但與前一年相比，2024 年第一季乾船塢成本的季節性導致本季成本增加約 1.5 個百分點。

Third, the seasonality of advertising expense and a variety of other expenses between the quarters differs in 2024 as compared to 2023, which will put a total cost increase of approximately 3 points into this quarter. Advertising alone is 1 of the 3 points.

第三，2024年各季度廣告費用和各種其他費用的季節性與2023年不同，這將使本季的總成本增加約3個百分點。廣告本身就是 3 點中的 1 點。

And fourth, like the full year inflation mitigated by economies of scale from our capacity growth, along with various other cost optimization initiatives. Given the higher first quarter cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day, the implied guidance for the cost in the second to the fourth quarter is approximately 3%.

第四，我們的產能成長帶來的規模經濟以及各種其他成本優化措施減輕了全年通膨。鑑於第一季每個可用下舖位日不含燃油的遊輪成本較高，第二至第四季的成本隱含指引約為 3%。

In summary, putting all these factors together, our net income guidance for the full year 2024 is approximately $1.2 billion with EBITDA forecasted at $5.6 billion a significant improvement from 2023. For those of you who are modeling EPS, let's not forget that when you calculate diluted EPS, you need to add back the $94 million of interest expense related to the company's convertible notes. Our improved financial results and our successful refinancing and deleveraging efforts in 2023, along with our 2024 December guidance leaves us firmly placed on our path to achieve our 2026 SEA Change goal, moving us further down the road to rebuilding our financial fortress and delivering long-term shareholder value.

總而言之，將所有這些因素放在一起，我們對2024 年全年的淨利潤指引約為12 億美元，EBITDA 預計為56 億美元，較2023 年有顯著改善。對於那些正在建模EPS 的人來說，請不要忘記，當您計算時稀釋後的每股收益，您需要加回與公司可轉換票據相關的 9400 萬美元利息支出。我們改善的財務表現、我們在2023 年成功的再融資和去槓桿化努力，以及我們2024 年12 月的指導，使我們堅定地走在實現2026 年東南亞變革目標的道路上，推動我們在重建金融堡壘和實現長期目標的道路上走得更遠。股東價值一詞。

And now, operator, let's open up the call for questions.

現在，接線員，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So Josh or David, if we think about the yield guidance for the year, just based on the fact that your occupancy should return to somewhat normal levels. And then pricing has momentum at this point? It seems to be pretty strong or healthy across the majority of your geographies. It seems like that plus 8.5% yield guidance might end up being somewhat conservative when we have this call a year from now.

因此，喬許或大衛，如果我們考慮今年的收益率指導，只是基於您的入住率應該恢復到正常水平的事實。那麼此時定價有動力嗎？在你們的大部分地區，它似乎都相當強大或健康。當我們一年後接到這個電話時，加上 8.5% 的收益率指導似乎最終可能會有些保守。

So I guess the question is, can you give us a little color about the -- more of the makeup of the -- of your yield forecast? And it seems like you might be taking a somewhat conservative view around onboard trends and then potentially underestimating the opportunity around taking close-in pricing.

所以我想問題是，你能給我們一些關於你的收益率預測的更多資訊嗎？看來您可能對船內趨勢持某種保守的看法，然後可能低估了採用接近定價的機會。

Steve, happy holidays to you, too. So I hope you're right, and I look forward to the call in a year. Look, we've given our good faith estimate on how we're seeing the world right now. We come in with a good amount of visibility because of how well booked we are. And as you said, we have seen accelerating momentum in the volume and the price. So we're very pleased with the trajectory that we've been seeing.

史蒂夫，也祝你節日快樂。所以我希望你是對的，我期待著一年後的電話。看，我們已經對我們現在如何看待世界給出了真誠的估計。由於我們的預訂量很大，我們的知名度很高。正如您所說，我們看到數量和價格的加速勢頭。因此，我們對所看到的發展軌跡非常滿意。

Obviously, this is also before wave. We do have a little bit of a disadvantage of doing this in December versus end of January into February. So all I can tell you is we've baked in what we see, and we always want to outperform. I mean, obviously, that's a given. So I think the best thing I can tell you is we'll talk in March with wave under our belt. Having said that, wave hasn't ended since last year. So we'll continue to ride as long as we can.

顯然，這也是前浪。與一月底到二月相比，我們在 12 月這樣做確實有一點缺點。所以我能告訴你的是，我們已經了解了我們所看到的，我們總是希望表現出色。我的意思是，顯然，這是既定的。所以我想我能告訴你的最好的事情就是我們將在三月進行討論。話雖如此，從去年開始，這波浪潮就沒有結束。所以我們會盡可能地繼續騎車。

Let me ask that a different way then, Josh. So if we think about what you guys are embedding in terms of onboard. Is it fair to assume you are being pretty conservative with the way onboard should shake out in '24? Basically, meaning you potentially could see a little bit of a slowdown in onboard or are you still guys kind of assuming that onboard remains as robust as it has been?

那麼就讓我換個方式問這個問題吧，喬許。因此，如果我們考慮一下你們在船上嵌入的內容。假設你對 24 年船上的變革方式相當保守，這樣公平嗎？基本上，這意味著您可能會看到船上業務略有放緩，或者您仍然認為船上業務仍然像以前一樣強勁嗎？

We're coming off a great performance when it comes to onboard, and we expect our onboard per diems to be increasing in 2024 versus 2023. Brands are doing a real good job of pulling forward more spend, providing differentiated experiences. So we absolutely expect an increase in '24 versus '23.

在機上方面，我們取得了出色的表現，我們預計 2024 年的機上每日津貼將比 2023 年有所增加。品牌在推動更多支出、提供差異化體驗方面做得非常出色。因此，我們絕對預期「24」比「23」有所增加。

Okay. Got you. And then real quick, one more question, if I could. David, in terms of the cost, you gave some pretty good color around the impact to everything that's going into the first quarter and why it's so high -- as we think about the rest of the year, the cadence of costs, I think you said, if we think about the third -- the second quarter through the fourth quarter, those should all be around 3%. I just want to make sure I heard that right. And if there is anything in 2Q through 4Q that we should be thinking about that might move one of those quarters one way or the other?

好的。明白你了。然後很快，如果可以的話，還有一個問題。大衛，就成本而言，你對第一季所有事情的影響以及為什麼成本如此之高給出了一些很好的解釋——當我們考慮今年剩餘時間時，成本的節奏，我認為你如果我們考慮第三季、第二季到第四季，這些數字都應該在3% 左右。我只是想確保我沒聽錯。如果第二季到第四季有什麼我們應該考慮的事情可能會以某種方式推動其中一個季度的發展？

Yes. No. So I was not trying to give individual guidance for each quarter. What I was trying to do is say that the 3 quarters collectively together would average 3%. We will see some year-over-year differences versus 2023. A great example of that is that the dry dock days will be down in second quarter, but they'll be up in forth.

是的。不。所以我並不想為每個季度提供單獨的指導。我想說的是，這 3 季加在一起的平均成長率為 3%。與 2023 年相比，我們將看到一些同比差異。一個很好的例子是，第二季度的乾船塢天數將減少，但第四季將會增加。

So there will be differences. There's also advertising, seasonalization differences and other things. So I was not trying to say 3% every quarter, just 3% on average for the 3.

所以會有差異。還有廣告、季節性差異和其他因素。所以我並不是說每季 3%，而是 3 季平均 3%。

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

So Josh, you gave us an update on the SEA Change long-term targets and the drastic improvement towards that target that you've made so far in '23 and then '24 expected. And I guess fuel has been a nice tailwind. If you take fuel out and maybe just focus on your yield growth target within '24 guidance, is that in line with your internal expectations for that 3-year ramp? Or how do you think about it?

喬希，您向我們介紹了 SEA Change 長期目標的最新情況，以及您在 23 年和 24 年預計迄今為止對該目標所做的巨大改進。我想燃料是一個很好的推動力。如果您放棄燃料，也許只專注於「24 年指引」內的殖利率成長目標，這是否符合您對 3 年成長的內部預期？或者說你對此有何看法？

Yes. I think it's fair to say that when we talked about it in June for the first time and we laid out what will it take? We talked about the fact that -- getting back to historical occupancy we expect pretty much all of that in '24 versus -- where we were in '23. And that's as far as we can tell, that's exactly how it's going to play out.

是的。我認為可以公平地說，當我們在六月第一次討論這個問題時，我們列出了需要做什麼？我們談到了這樣一個事實：回到歷史入住率，我們預計 24 年的入住率與 23 年的入住率幾乎相同。據我們所知，這正是事情將會如何發展。

And on top of that, we predict price -- we estimate pricing to be up low to mid-single digits every year, '24, '25, '26. And so we feel like we are -- we entered the year a little bit ahead given how we ended the second half of 2023, and we'll keep pushing forward.

最重要的是，我們預測價格 - 我們估計每年 24 年、25 年、26 年價格都會上漲到中個位數。因此，我們覺得，考慮到 2023 年下半年的結束情況，我們提前進入了這一年，並且我們將繼續前進。

Okay. Great. And then you said you were 2/3 booked for '24 that struck me is incredibly impressive. I mean if you could give us a sense of what that would have been in prior years, but also the crux of the question is, that base-loading strategy -- do you think that impacted your pricing meaningfully versus what it would have been if you had just kept the sort of historical booking curve? And as you go into January in wave season -- you've never been this booked. So has that changed your strategy with pricing as you move through wave?

好的。偉大的。然後你說你 24 年的 2/3 預訂了，這讓我印象深刻。我的意思是，如果你能讓我們了解前幾年的情況，但問題的關鍵是，基本裝載策略——你認為這對你的定價有有意義的影響嗎？你剛剛保留了某種歷史預訂曲線嗎？當您進入一月的波浪季節時，您從未被如此預訂過。那麼，當您經歷浪潮時，這是否改變了您的定價策略？

So this is playing out as we would expect it to play out by pulling forward all the volume, it gives us better control over our pricing environment and our ability to keep pricing at an elevated level. And so it's literally playing out as it should.

因此，正如我們預期的那樣，它會透過拉動所有成交量來發揮作用，它使我們能夠更好地控制定價環境以及將定價保持在較高水平的能力。所以它實際上正在按其應有的方式進行。

This is -- we are 10 points higher than we were when we entered the Q1 of '24, 10 points higher year-over-year. It's higher than 2019 as well which was a of -- which is a very long normalized booking window. And it's important that we do that, right? I mean, let's keep in mind, being 10 points above last year is good progress, but we expect to end our occupancy significantly higher than last year. So that's all feeding into the strategy. And pricing is playing along. As I tried to say in my notes, I'm not sure how clear it was. When we entered the fourth quarter of this year, we were about 10 points higher than prior year in the occupancy position and prices were higher. As we made our way through the quarter, we've managed to pretty much keep that occupancy advantage and prices on everything that's booked is now considerably higher. So it is working the way we anticipated.

這是——我們比進入 24 年第一季時高出 10 個百分點，比去年同期高出 10 個百分點。它也高於 2019 年，這是一個非常長的標準化預訂窗口。我們這樣做很重要，對吧？我的意思是，讓我們記住，比去年高出 10 個百分點是一個很好的進步，但我們預計最終入住率將顯著高於去年。這就是戰略的全部內容。定價也在發揮作用。正如我試圖在筆記中所說的那樣，我不確定它是否清晰。當我們進入今年第四季時，我們的入住率比去年同期高出約10個百分點，價格也更高。在整個季度中，我們幾乎保持了入住率優勢，而且所有預訂的價格現在都高得多。所以它正在按照我們預期的方式工作。

Our next question comes from James Hardiman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

So I'm going to ask, I think, Steve's question in a slightly different way. There was a lot of conjecture that you would only give first quarter guidance, similar to last year. Obviously, your peers are at a bit of an advantage because they get that first month of wave as they try to assess what the demand environment looks like.

所以我想我將以一種稍微不同的方式問史蒂夫的問題。有很多猜測認為您只會提供第一季的指導，與去年類似。顯然，您的同行具有一定的優勢，因為他們在嘗試評估需求環境時獲得了第一個月的浪潮。

Obviously, you gave us the full year guide anyway as we interpret that guide then take us through that thought process and whether or not that plays into sort of your level of conservatism being effectively ahead of wave?

顯然，無論如何，您給了我們全年指南，我們解釋該指南，然後引導我們完成整個思考過程，這是否會影響您有效領先於浪潮的保守主義水平？

Yes. Well, we are effectively back to normal. This is what we used to do before the last few years, and I think it was quite important that we get back into this cadence.

是的。嗯，我們實際上已經恢復正常了。這是我們過去幾年前所做的，我認為我們回到這種節奏非常重要。

Now good news, we are highest book we've ever been. So we do have more visibility than even we had before 2020. So I think that's setting us up well to be able to be in a pretty good position to give you this preliminary guidance for 2024.

現在好消息，我們是有史以來最高的書。因此，我們確實比 2020 年之前擁有更多的知名度。因此，我認為這使我們能夠處於一個非常有利的位置，為您提供 2024 年的初步指導。

Obviously, we have -- I have high expectations in my brands and what I expect them to achieve, including during wave. And you got to remember, the whole focus of wave this year, we have the benefit of being able to focus on different things. Last year in wave, a lot of what we were trying to accomplish and our brands we're trying to accomplish was just filling the ships because we were in such a different position from an occupancy perspective. This time, we actually get to go through wave and really be more strategic in how we are trying to advance the needle, not just on the short-term, but on the longer-term. So I think it sets us up well.

顯然，我們對我的品牌以及我期望它們實現的目標抱有很高的期望，包括在浪潮期間。你必須記住，今年浪潮的整個焦點，我們的好處是能夠專注於不同的事情。去年，我們試圖完成的許多事情以及我們試圖完成的品牌只是填滿了船隻，因為從入住率的角度來看，我們處於如此不同的位置。這一次，我們實際上要經歷浪潮，並且在如何努力推進方面真正更具戰略性，不僅是短期的，而且是長期的。所以我認為這對我們很有幫助。

And I keep asking David to change the fiscal year-end and like can we please start on January 1, like everybody else. But apparently, that's a lot of work. So we're not going to do that.

我一直要求 David 更改財政年度結束日期，我們可以像其他人一樣從 1 月 1 日開始嗎？但顯然，這需要大量工作。所以我們不會那樣做。

Got it. And then there was a comment in the prepared remarks about not only are you seeing better new-to-cruise numbers but better new-to-brand numbers relative to 2019. Josh, you talked about having confidence in your brands, but that latter point seems like a big one, right? So much of the conversation just seems to be about the cruise industry. But maybe talk to what you think might be a Carnival specific story as in terms of improving consideration among people that are already into cruising.

知道了。然後，在準備好的評論中有人評論說，與2019 年相比，您不僅看到了更好的新遊輪數字，而且看到了更好的新品牌數字。喬希，您談到對自己的品牌有信心，但後一點看起來好像很大，對吧？很多談話似乎都是關於郵輪業的。但也許可以談談你認為可能是嘉年華特定的故事，例如提高已經開始郵輪旅行的人的考慮。

Yes. I think our brands are doing phenomenally in really understanding who that target audience is and how to speak to them with their creative marketing. And then on the performance side, just making sure that, that consideration and awareness gets converted into bookings.

是的。我認為我們的品牌在真正了解目標受眾是誰以及如何透過創意行銷與他們交談方面做得非常出色。然後在績效方面，只需確保將考慮和意識轉化為預訂即可。

So we gave -- I said in my prepared remarks, we've got several campaigns that are either started or about to start. We've got a few examples you can click through on the prepared materials of slides that have been put up. They're doing a great job at captivating the market. And I think getting cut through not just with new-to-brand and new-to-cruise on the value that we have. And it's -- unfortunately, for us, as much as we've improved on the pricing front in 2023, it's still a big gap versus land. So all of those things are wind at our backs, and I expect more of that over time.

所以我們——我在準備好的發言中說過，我們有幾項活動已經開始或即將開始。我們提供了一些範例，您可以點擊查看已發布的準備好的幻燈片資料。他們在吸引市場方面做得很好。我認為，不僅要透過新品牌和新遊輪來突破我們所擁有的價值。不幸的是，對我們來說，儘管 2023 年我們在定價方面取得了很大的進步，但與土地相比仍然存在很大差距。因此，所有這些事情都是我們的後盾，我預計隨著時間的推移，這種情況會越來越多。

Our next question comes from Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

I'm hoping you can talk a little bit about changes to the sourcing strategy. I know it shifted back a little bit more to North American cruisers in the last couple of years. But given the strength in the European market or the fact that they might be closing the gap, should we expect that to move back to a normal mix?

我希望你能談談採購策略的變化。我知道在過去的幾年裡，它更多地轉向了北美巡洋艦。但考慮到歐洲市場的強勁或他們可能正在縮小差距的事實，我們是否應該期望這種情況會回到正常的組合？

Well, Jaime. So I think we should kind of take a step back and think about our portfolio and how we operate. We've got dedicated brands to European markets with P&O Cruises in the U.K., and AIDA in Germany, Costa, not just for Italy, but really Italy, Spain and France. And all of those are either the biggest in their market or the second biggest in the case of Costa across the Mediterranean. And we didn't deviate from our strategy when it comes to our dedicated market brands. And so they have continued to view those markets as the right thing to be in, in the long-term, and we absolutely support that. And we're starting to see the strength of that really come through as we've started talking about the last few quarters.

嗯，海梅。因此，我認為我們應該退一步思考我們的投資組合以及我們的運作方式。我們在歐洲市場擁有專門的品牌，例如英國的 P&O Cruises、德國的 AIDA、Costa，不僅針對義大利，也針對義大利、西班牙和法國。所有這些要么是各自市場中最大的，要么是地中海對面的歌詩達第二大的。當談到我們專門的市場品牌時，我們並沒有偏離我們的策略。因此，從長遠來看，他們仍然認為這些市場是正確的選擇，我們絕對支持這一點。當我們開始談論過去幾個季度時，我們開始看到這種力量真正顯現出來。

With respect to our North American brands, Carnival has been and will continue to be America's cruise line, and they're knocking the cover off the ball. And there hasn't been that much dramatic change when it comes to sourcing for Holland America and Princess other than the fact that for Princess, they had so much sourcing that was really geared towards markets that have been slow to open in Asia, et cetera.

就我們的北美品牌而言，嘉年華一直並將繼續成為美國的郵輪公司，他們正在徹底打破常規。在荷蘭美國和公主郵輪的採購方面，並沒有發生太大的變化，除了公主郵輪公司有大量的採購對像是亞洲等開放緩慢的市場。 。

So we've repositioned. We've done a bit of that. But I think we are very well positioned to take the strength of the European consumer and the U.K. consumer and continue to ride that into 2024.

所以我們重新定位了。我們已經做了一些這樣的事情。但我認為我們處於非常有利的位置，可以利用歐洲消費者和英國消費者的力量，並繼續利用這一優勢進入 2024 年。

Okay. And then there was a lot of positive commentary obviously, on this call. So I'm curious if there's anything left out there that concerns you that you would like to share with the audience?

好的。對於這次電話會議，顯然有很多正面的評論。所以我很好奇是否還有任何您關心的事情想與觀眾分享？

No. Great question. No. Thank you.

不，很好的問題。不，謝謝。

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自帕特里克·斯科爾斯和 Truist。

Good morning, everyone. Josh, I am not going to ask you if you were planning on touching fuel this time, but I...

大家，早安。喬希，我不會問你這次是否打算接觸燃料，但我…

Thank you, Patrick.

謝謝你，派崔克。

Sometimes you should listen to us sometimes not, but here we are. I want to hear from you what trends of late, especially around Black Friday, Cyber Monday, you've seen with new-to-cruise, is that becoming a larger part of the booking mix? And if so, what would be the impact on your margins? I imagine new-to-cruise typically -- call the 800 number of books direct, which probably saves you travel agency commissions. Can you just talk about those trends and the potential impact on revenues and costs?

有時你應該聽我們的，有時不聽我們的，但我們就在這裡。我想聽聽您最近的趨勢，特別是在黑色星期五和網路星期一期間，您在郵輪新手中看到的趨勢是否正在成為預訂組合的更大一部分？如果是這樣，會對您的利潤產生什麼影響？我想，對於剛接觸郵輪的人來說，通常是直接撥打 800 預訂電話，這可能會節省你旅行社的佣金。您能否談談這些趨勢以及對收入和成本的潛在影響？

Thank you. So candidly, I don't have -- literally for the period that you're referencing the Cyber Monday and Black Friday. I don't have a breakdown of new-to-cruise versus new-to-brand versus brand loyalists. I do have the fourth quarter, obviously, which includes some of that where our new-to-cruise is obviously up significantly year-over-year, 51%. And so that is part of the strategy, right? taking -- that was sale -- pardon me, I'm sorry, that was a sale. But taking a greater share of folks who have never cruised before is part of the strategy to increase overall demand, get them in our pipeline and allow us to raise pricing over time for, frankly, everybody.

謝謝。坦白說，在你提到的網路星期一和黑色星期五期間，我確實沒有。我沒有對郵輪新手、品牌新手和品牌忠誠者進行詳細分析。顯然，我確實看到了第四季度的情況，其中包括我們的新遊輪客流量明顯同比大幅增長 51% 的情況。所以這是戰略的一部分，對吧？拿——那是銷售——請原諒，我很抱歉，那是銷售。但是，吸引更多以前從未乘坐過郵輪的人是增加整體需求策略的一部分，讓他們進入我們的管道，並允許我們隨著時間的推移提高每個人的定價。

With respect to what's the most cost efficient. Obviously, coming direct on the web is always going to be the most cost effective. I wouldn't make a categorization though that new-to-cruise comes in a particular way. Because it really depends on the characteristics of the new-to-cruise guests themselves, what brand it is, what's the itinerary length et cetera.

關於什麼是最具成本效益的。顯然，直接透過網路存取始終是最具成本效益的。儘管新遊輪以特定的方式出現，但我不會進行分類。因為這其實取決於新來的郵輪客人本身的特點，是什麼品牌，行程長度是多少等等。

Now clearly, a lot of new-to-cruise will over-index on the shorter cruises because they're trying it out for the first time, and that lends itself to maybe also a younger crowd, which is more comfortable just playing around on the net and doing things direct. But I mean, frankly speaking, historically, and I expect this to continue, our trade partners are absolutely critical in driving new-to-cruise to us. And we've relied on them for decades to do that, and we will rely on them for decades more. And they have done a great job of really catching up to where we've been in the curve. And year-over-year, they're showing great strength as well.

現在顯然，許多新遊輪會對較短的遊輪指數過高，因為他們是第一次嘗試，這也可能適合年輕的人群，他們更喜歡在短途遊輪上玩耍。網絡和直接做事。但我的意思是，坦白說，從歷史上看，我預計這種情況會繼續下去，我們的貿易夥伴對於推動我們新的郵輪發展絕對至關重要。幾十年來，我們一直依賴他們來做到這一點，而且我們將繼續依賴他們幾十年。他們在真正趕上我們的發展曲線方面做得非常出色。年復一年，他們也展現了強大的實力。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

Great. I wanted to circle back to your yield guidance and just looking at the recovery in occupancy to previous levels being maybe 600 to 700 basis points kind of implies that your per diem guidance is maybe less than 2% growth. So I just -- I don't know if I'm doing the math wrong there, if there's anything to clarify.

偉大的。我想回到你的收益率指導，只要看看入住率恢復到之前的水平（可能是 600 到 700 個基點）就意味著你的每日指導可能會低於 2% 的增長。所以我只是——我不知道我的數學計算是否有錯誤，是否有什麼需要澄清的。

And then also, you've talked about the price on the books for next year being considerably higher, but your yield guidance for the year, it's just nicely higher which I think the David Bernstein glossary is like -- would be a deceleration in...

然後，你也談到明年的賬面價格會相當高，但你今年的收益率指導，它只是高得多，我認為大衛·伯恩斯坦的術語就像——這將是一個減速。 ..

I'm laughing at the glossary. Yes, I keep going, Robin.

看到詞彙表我就笑了是的，我會繼續前進，羅賓。

Be if I'm interpreting glossary correctly, I think that implies sort of a deceleration in the price there. So just -- is that just because the onboard growth rate, while up is lower, and so that brings like considerably a higher price to just nicely higher yield? Or maybe my glossary definition is wrong, but maybe you could help us with that and with the math on the per diem to (inaudible).

如果我正確地解釋了術語表，我認為這意味著那裡的價格有所下降。那麼，這是否只是因為船上成長率較低，所以這會帶來相當高的價格，但收益率卻相當高？或者也許我的術語定義是錯的，但也許你可以幫助我們解決這個問題以及每日的數學計算（聽不清楚）。

Thanks, Robin. Well, actually, David said it in the prepared remarks, I thought he said it pretty well. So David, do you want to repeat what you said?

謝謝，羅賓。嗯，實際上，大衛在準備好的演講中說的，我認為他說得很好。大衛，你想重複你說過的話嗎？

Yes. So keep in mind that 2019 was the high watermark for occupancy. And we look back to like 2005 and the historical occupancy levels were in the range of 104% to 107%. So what we're saying is we will be solidly back to historical occupancy levels, but we weren't saying we're going to be back to the high watermark of 2019. So keep that in mind.

是的。因此請記住，2019 年是入住率的高水位線。我們回顧 2005 年，歷史入住率在 104% 至 107% 之間。所以我們想說的是，我們將堅定地回到歷史入住率水平，但我們並不是說我們將回到 2019 年的高水位。所以請記住這一點。

The other thing about the considerably higher versus the nicely higher. Keep in mind that last March when we gave guidance, we had thought that our expectation for per diem increases was about 3.5%, and we wound up 7.5%. And so we saw some very strong pricing in the back half of the year. And as a result of that, on a year-over-year comparison basis, a book position may be considerably higher. But what we're looking to see is at least nicely higher pricing on a per diem basis built into our guidance. So when you put those 2 factors together, hopefully, you can understand how we built our guidance.

關於相當高與相當高的另一件事。請記住，去年 3 月，當我們給予指導時，我們原以為每日津貼增長的預期約為 3.5%，結果最終增長了 7.5%。因此，我們在今年下半年看到了一些非常強勁的定價。因此，與去年同期相比，圖書排名可能會高得多。但我們希望看到的是，我們的指導方針中的每日定價至少要高得多。因此，當您將這兩個因素放在一起時，希望您能夠理解我們如何制定指南。

Yes. And the thing I'd add -- let me just add one thing, Robin, which is, our focus is on generating the most revenue possible when that ship leaves on its cruise. And that's going to be a combination of optimizing that price and occupancy relationship. So there's no magic to getting back to 2019 high watermark of 107%. And we play in the fringes, we play in that 104% to 107% to make sure that when you combine that ending point along with the pricing, it's the happiest we can be.

是的。我要補充的一點是——讓我補充一件事，羅賓，那就是，我們的重點是當這艘船離開巡航時產生盡可能多的收入。這將是優化價格和入住關係的結合。因此，回到 2019 年 107% 的高水位線並不是什麼神奇的事。我們在邊緣進行遊戲，我們在 104% 到 107% 之間進行遊戲，以確保當你將終點與定價結合時，這是我們能得到的最快樂的結果。

I understood that occupancy, right, that you don't manage to a certain occupancy once you're in that range. But just that the price comment -- that you're -- what you're saying on the books being considerably up versus the nicely up, does seem to imply that you would be expecting a deceleration from current levels. And so I mean, maybe the answer is you're just being conservative, but I just -- if that's correct in interpreting considerably moving to nicely as being a lower rate of growth. So that's -- I guess that's what I'm trying to clarify.

我理解入住率，對吧，一旦你在這個範圍內，你就無法達到一定的入住率。但只是價格評論——你在賬面上所說的大幅上漲與良好上漲相比，似乎確實意味著你預計會從當前水平減速。所以我的意思是，也許答案是你只是保守，但我只是——如果這正確地解釋為大幅轉向較低的成長率。所以這就是——我想這就是我想要澄清的。

So one thing to stress, right? We just came out with the fourth quarter, which everybody is glossing over real quick, but it was up 10.5 points in price. That's what we're going to lap when we get through 2024. If you think about our booked business, we have the most to go in the fourth quarter, not surprisingly, so far as the stout.

所以有一點要強調，對吧？我們剛剛發布了第四季度，每個人都很快就對其進行了掩蓋，但價格上漲了 10.5 個點。這就是我們到 2024 年時將要實現的目標。如果你考慮我們的預訂業務，我們在第四季度的業務量最大，毫不奇怪，就黑啤酒而言。

So as we build towards that and we cycle through the first quarter and the second quarter, where we're the most booked, we just have to fill and get over a larger hurdle, which we expect to do. But we have to take that whole thing into the equation when we're giving full year guidance.

因此，當我們朝著這個目標邁進時，我們會循環經歷第一季度和第二季度，這是我們預訂最多的季度，我們只需要填補並克服一個更大的障礙，這是我們期望做到的。但當我們提供全年指導時，我們必須將整件事納入考慮範圍。

That makes perfect sense. And then just one last clarification. On your SEA Change on the expense side, you've talked about the 3-year being up low single digit in like '24, '25, '26 each year. This year up -- or 2024 guidance up 4.5%, probably above low single-digit kind of implies very low expense growth in '25 and '26. Is that how we should think about?

這是完全有道理的。然後是最後一項澄清。關於費用方面的 SEA 變化，您談到了每年 24、25、26 年等 3 年的低個位數成長。今年的成長——或者說 2024 年的指導成長 4.5%，可能高於低個位數，這意味著 25 年和 26 年的費用成長非常低。我們該這樣思考嗎？

In other words, there's not a change in your -- the 3-year average would be up low single digit, even though it's up a bit more in '24 than that would suggest. And again, possibly you're just being conservative, but I don't know if you had a thought on how we should think about how much better that would be -- would have to be in '25 and '26 to keep your SEA Change expense target?

換句話說，你的 3 年平均值沒有變化，儘管 24 年的漲幅比預期的要高一些，但 3 年平均值將上漲較低的個位數。再說一次，可能你只是保守，但我不知道你是否想過我們應該如何考慮這會好得多——必須在 25 和 26 年才能保持你的 SEA改變支出目標？

Sure. So when we were presenting our SEA Change program, I guess, it was in June, we were talking about the fact that low single digits, but I did say we'd have some outsized impacts in 2024 due to occupancy, both on the yield and on the cost. So the 4.5%, I also had indicated that occupancy would probably cost 1.5 to 2 points this year. So we are in that low single digits equation that was built into the model.

當然。因此，當我們介紹我們的SEA 變革計劃時，我猜是在6 月份，我們正在討論低個位數的事實，但我確實說過，由於入住率，我們將在2024 年產生一些巨大的影響，無論是對收益率還是以及成本。因此，對於 4.5%，我還表示今年的入住率可能會增加 1.5 到 2 個百分點。所以我們處於模型中內建的低個位數方程式。

So I feel like we are very well positioned. And as Josh indicated, we're ahead of where we expected to be on our way towards achieving those targets.

所以我覺得我們處於非常有利的位置。正如喬希所指出的，我們在實現這些目標的道路上已經領先於我們的預期。

I would say, Robin, I didn't seem to get the call without you trying to get ahead of '24 guidance and looking at '25.

我想說，羅賓，如果你沒有試圖超越 24 年的指導並關注 25 年，我似乎沒有接到電話。

Our next question comes from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Dan Politzer。

I just actually wanted to touch on the fourth quarter a little bit more. The uptick in revenues on pricing certainly was impressive. Can you maybe unpack that a little bit more? I mean, was that really just Carnival centric line? Or was it Europe or North America more broadly? Or was this alternatively related to your strategy of more base loading and maybe benefiting from some of the compression we've seen?

我實際上只是想多談談第四季。定價收入的成長確實令人印象深刻。你能把它再拆開一點嗎？我的意思是，這真的只是嘉年華中心線嗎？或者更廣泛地說是歐洲或北美？或者這是否與您的更多基本負載策略有關，並可能受益於我們所看到的一些壓縮？

This was portfolio wise. So we're very pleased with where we were we headed into the fourth quarter. David, I don't know if you want to give any color.

這是投資組合明智的。因此，我們對第四季度的進展感到非常滿意。大衛，我不知道你是否想給任何顏色。

Yes. No, I mean, you're right. It was all brands, and we saw strength in bookings. And our brands did a great job yield managing the revenue and taking price up. And so as a result of that, you saw the end result.

是的。不，我的意思是，你是對的。都是品牌，我們看到了預訂量的強勁。我們的品牌在收益管理和價格上漲方面做得很好。因此，你看到了最終的結果。

Got it. And then Grand Bahama, I know you started to talk a little bit more about that. Are there any parameters you can give us there in terms of capacity per day, amenities, the CapEx or return profile you're looking at? And also, I know you started to see some booking activity that's going there. Are you receiving premiums on those bookings? I think you mentioned like hundreds of sailings in the release.

知道了。然後是大巴哈馬，我知道你開始更多地談論這個問題。您可以向我們提供有關您正在查看的每日容量、便利設施、資本支出或回報概況方面的參數嗎？而且，我知道您開始看到那裡正在進行一些預訂活動。您在這些預訂中收到溢價嗎？我想你在新聞稿中提到了數百次航行。

Yes, let me start with that. We have -- it's tiny in the grand scheme of things still. I mean, because you're talking about Carnival Cruise Line, which doesn't -- has a lot of short programs, et cetera, that don't really start booking. So it's a tiny amount now. We'll give color as we get through 2024 in that respect. So we'll come back to that.

是的，讓我從這個開始。我們擁有——在宏偉的計劃中仍然很小。我的意思是，因為你談論的是嘉年華遊輪公司，它沒有——有很多短期節目等等，但並沒有真正開始預訂。所以現在這個金額很小。到 2024 年，我們將在這方面提供更多資訊。所以我們會回到這一點。

With respect to your other points, we've said this is a big investment. This is $0.5 billion type of investment. And we can do that, obviously, in 2025, we only have 1 ship, and we have none in 2026. So we think this is the right way to optimize our resources and really benefit the Carnival brand and you've heard us say, 18 ships from day 1. So we are very, very excited about that.

關於您的其他觀點，我們已經說過這​​是一項巨大的投資。這是 5 億美元的投資。顯然，我們可以做到這一點，到2025 年，我們只有1 艘船，而到2026 年，我們沒有一艘船。所以我們認為這是優化我們的資源並真正使嘉年華品牌受益的正確方法，你已經聽到我們說，從第一天開始就有 18 艘船。所以我們對此非常非常興奮。

I don't want to get ahead. I really want to do a good job of disciplining myself to not get ahead of Christine Duffy, who really wants to and should talk about what this experience is going to be like and more to come in 2024. And I can't wait for you to listen to Christine and hear all about it.

我不想領先。我真的想好好約束自己，不要領先 Christine Duffy，她真的很想並且應該談論這種體驗以及 2024 年的更多體驗。我等不及你了聆聽克里斯汀並了解一切。

Got it. And then just if I could squeeze in one quick housekeeping. Panorama, that was, I think, out of service a little bit in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter. Is there any way to just quantify the impact of that?

知道了。如果我能抽出時間做一次快速的家事就好了。全景，我認為，在第四季度和第一季度有點停止服務。有什麼方法可以量化其影響嗎？

In the grand scheme of things, it's probably a couple of pennies.

從長遠來看，這可能只是幾便士。

Between like maybe one penny in the fourth quarter and a couple in the first.

介於第四節的一分錢和第一節的幾分錢之間。

Frank, we have time for one last question.

法蘭克，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

We have a question from Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

我們有 Infinity Research 的 Assia Georgieva 提出的問題。

Congratulations guys on a great Q4. So happy that we're back to looking at deals as opposed to per diems in the 10.5% was a great metric, but the 7.8%, I liked better. So I apologize. But again, I wanted just to finally get back to where we're looking at the more usual metrics.

恭喜大家第四季取得了優異的成績。很高興我們又開始關注交易而不是每日津貼，10.5% 是一個很好的指標，但我更喜歡 7.8%。所以我道歉。但同樣，我想最終回到我們正在考慮的更常見的指標。

Given that we have a very healthy outlook, in terms of yields in Q1 and Q2. Dry docks, I think, I at least understand well, so we have a good view into EBITDA throughout the year. David, would you mind taking us through sort of the debt and interest expense burdens that you may be trying to modify including as part of the SEA Change program by fiscal year-end 2024?

鑑於我們對第一季和第二季的收益率有非常健康的前景。我想，我至少對乾船塢了解得很好，所以我們對全年的 EBITDA 有很好的了解。 David，您介意向我們介紹一下您可能試圖修改的債務和利息支出負擔嗎？這些負擔包括作為 2024 財年末 SEA 變革計劃的一部分？

Sure. So to start with -- you saw our interest expense guidance in the press release. It was close to $100 million less than 2023. And keep in mind that while we did pay down quite a bit of debt. The average balance for the year is for 2024 is probably like $2.5 billion less than 2023. So that will lower interest expense by $200 million. But also keep in mind that we have less cash on the books. And with declining interest income rates, that probably is offsetting the savings by about $100 million. So that's why it's a net decline of about $100 million in interest expense on a year-over-year basis.

當然。首先，您在新聞稿中看到了我們的利息支出指南。比 2023 年少了近 1 億美元。請記住，雖然我們確實還清了相當多的債務。 2024 年的平均餘額可能比 2023 年少 25 億美元。因此，利息支出將減少 2 億美元。但也要記住，我們帳上的現金較少。隨著利率收入下降，這可能會抵消約 1 億美元的節省。這就是利息支出較去年同期淨下降約 1 億美元的原因。

Looking at the debt level, I actually said this in my notes, in 2024, we are looking at about -- I think it's $2.1 billion of scheduled maturities but we will be replacing that debt with the $2.3 billion of export credits that we take on. So -- but in addition to that, we have built in some prepayments of debt into our guidance. And as I said, we are evaluating that. So we do expect to see debt to go down in 2024. However, we do expect to see strong deleveraging from a metrics perspective because our EBITDA grows substantially. So our debt-to-EBITDA will also improve.

就債務水平而言，我實際上在我的筆記中說過，到2024 年，我們正在考慮- 我認為這是21 億美元的預定到期債務，但我們將用我們承擔的23 億美元的出口信貸來取代該債務。因此，除此之外，我們還在我們的指導中納入了一些提前償還債務的內容。正如我所說，我們正在評估這一點。因此，我們確實預期債務將在 2024 年下降。然而，從指標角度來看，我們確實預期會看到強勁的去槓桿化，因為我們的 EBITDA 大幅成長。因此，我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率也將有所改善。

Makes perfect sense. And just as a quick follow-up, before I ask my second question, if I may. Would we be looking at the refinancing as opposed to repayment?

很有道理。作為快速跟進，在我問第二個問題之前，如果可以的話。我們會考慮再融資而不是還款嗎？

So we are looking at both. As far as -- we expect to continue to prepay debt and to continue the deleveraging. But on top of that, we also expect to look at some potential refinancing, which really would drive the interest cost down. And so we'll see how what opportunities are presented to us in 2024. And if it makes sense, we'll take advantage of them.

所以我們正在考慮兩者。就我們而言，我們預計將繼續提前償還債務並繼續去槓桿化。但最重要的是，我們也預期會考慮一些潛在的再融資，這確實會降低利息成本。因此，我們將看看 2024 年會為我們帶來哪些機會。如果有意義，我們將利用它們。

Sounds great. And so if I can ask my second question, and I don't think anyone has touched on this. Given geopolitical pressures and we are comparing -- used to be comparing 2023 to 2019 when we have St. Petersburg, which clearly, the Eastern Baltics have been kind of off the books. Now we have an issue with the Middle East and (inaudible) , I believe, is in the Persian Gulf. But will be one of the ships that will have to come back to Europe and going through a stride that is has been targeted by Yemeni military south. Any thoughts on this or...

聽起來很棒。因此，如果我可以問第二個問題，我認為沒有人觸及過這一點。考慮到地緣政治壓力，我們正在比較——過去我們在聖彼得堡時比較了 2023 年和 2019 年，顯然，東波羅的海國家已經有點不存在了。現在我們與中東（聽不清楚）有問題，我相信是在波斯灣。但這將是必須返回歐洲並經歷也門南部軍事目標的一大步的船隻之一。對此有任何想法或...

Obviously, our first priority is going to be safety. And we -- that's already on our on our radar screen, and we've got mitigation plan should we need it. But keep in mind, this is months away. And so we'll do the right thing. But there's always something I hate to say it that way, but there is always something and our brands.

顯然，我們的首要任務是安全。我們——這已經出現在我們的雷達螢幕上，如果我們需要的話，我們已經制定了緩解計劃。但請記住，這還需要幾個月的時間。所以我們會做正確的事。但總有一些事情我討厭這樣說，但總是有一些東西和我們的品牌。

I've been around long enough, 26 years. So there is always something, Josh, I agree.

我已經在這裡待了很長時間了，26年了。所以總有一些事情，喬什，我同意。

All right. I think with that, we do have to end it, but I'd say happy holidays to everybody, and thank you very much. Have a good new year.

好的。我認為我們確實必須結束它，但我想祝大家節日快樂，非常感謝你們。祝你新年快樂。

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day. Thank you.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。