嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation plc third-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加嘉年華公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。 現在我想將電話轉給主持人投資者關係高級副總裁貝絲·羅伯茨 (Beth Roberts)。 你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh White; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein, and our Chairman here.

謝謝。 早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 今天我們的執行長 Josh White 也加入了我的行列。我們的財務長大衛伯恩斯坦 (David Bernstein) 和我們的董事長。

Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be four buckets. Therefore, I will refer you to the forward-looking statement and today's press release all references to ticket prices net per day, and that yields an adjusted cruise costs without fuel or be in constant currency. Unless otherwise stated, references to per diems and yields will be on that basis.

在我們開始之前，請注意，我們在這次電話會議上的一些評論將分為四個部分。 因此，我將向您推薦前瞻性聲明和今天的新聞稿，所有內容均涉及每日淨票價，並得出調整後的遊輪成本，不含燃料或以不變貨幣計算。 除非另有說明，否則每日津貼和收益率的參考均以此為基礎。

Our comments may also reference cruise costs without your EBITDA, net income, free cash flow and ROIC, all of which will be on an adjusted basis unless otherwise stated. All these references, non-GAAP financial measures as defined in our earnings press release. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable US GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are also contained in our earnings press release and in our investor presentation. Please visit our corporate website where earnings Press Release investor presentation can be found.

我們的評論也可能參考不含 EBITDA、淨利潤、自由現金流和 ROIC 的遊輪成本，除非另有說明，所有這些都將在調整後的基礎上進行。 所有這些參考資料都是我們的收益新聞稿中定義的非公認會計準則財務指標。 我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹中還包含與最直接可比較的美國公認會計準則財務指標和其他相關揭露的調節。 請造訪我們的公司網站，其中可以找到收益新聞稿投資者簡報。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh Weinstein.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給喬許韋恩斯坦。

Before I begin, I'd like to express my support and heartfelt sympathy for all those impacted by Hurricane. Believe this past week are your thoughts and prayers are with you. With that, I'll turn to our prepared remarks.

在開始之前，我謹向所有受颶風影響的人們表達支持和衷心同情。 相信過去的一週是你的思念和祈禱與你同在。 接下來，我將談談我們準備好的演講。

September comes to us, and we close out the year, happy to report that we are delivering well in excess of 2024 expectation. We've also built an even stronger base of business for 2025, and we're off to an unprecedented start to 2026.

9 月即將到來，我們結束了這一年，很高興地報告，我們的交付遠遠超出了 2024 年的預期。 我們也為 2025 年建立了更強大的業務基礎，並在 2026 年迎來了前所未有的開局。

Our third quarter by all Cup was phenomenal. Flicking multiple records and outperformance on every measure. Revenue hit an all-time high of almost $8 billion plus more than last year's record low record EBITDA.

我們的第三節整個盃賽表現非常出色。 刷新多項記錄並在每項指標上都表現出色。 營收創下近 80 億美元的歷史新高，超過去年創下的 EBITDA 歷史新低。

The QB $2.8 billion, up $600 million over last year and $160 million over guidance. And we delivered over 60% more net income for the year prior achieving double-digit ROIC as of the year of our third quarter. These improvements were driven by high margin sales should yield growth across all major brands, not driven by capacity growth, and it resulted in EBITDA and operating income on a unit basis, up 20% and 26%, respectively. To levels we've not seen in the last 15 years.

QB 為 28 億美元，比去年增加 6 億美元，比指導值高出 1.6 億美元。 截至第三季度，我們的淨利潤比前一年增加了 60% 以上，實現了兩位數的 ROIC。 這些改善是由所有主要品牌的高利潤銷售帶來的成長所推動的，而不是由產能成長推動的，並且導致單位 EBITDA 和營業收入分別成長 20% 和 26%。 達到了過去 15 年來我們從未見過的水平。

Strong demand enabled us to increase our full year over year guide for the third time this year and consistent with our historical emphasis on efficiency.

強勁的需求使我們今年第三次提高了全年指南，這與我們歷來對效率的重視是一致的。

We also improved our cost guidance, which enabled us to drive more revenue sort of bottom line with around 99% of our 2024 ticket revenue already on the books were poised to deliver record EBITDA of $6 billion, almost $600 million above our prior peak and $400 million above your original guidance.

我們還改進了成本指導，這使我們能夠推動更多的收入，我們的2024 年門票收入中已有約99% 已入賬，有望實現創紀錄的EBITDA 60 億美元，比之前的峰值高出近6億美元，比之前的峰值高出400 美元。

You said in December, our licensee did expire at the end the year at 10.5%, a point-and-a-half better than our vision of December guidance and almost double last year's ending point. Looking forward, the momentum continues as we actively manage the demand curve at this point in time 2020 by store of on both occupancy and price, all core deployments are at higher prices than the prior year.

您在 12 月說過，我們的被授權人確實在年底到期，利率為 10.5%，比我們 12 月指導的願景好一個半，幾乎是去年終點的兩倍。 展望未來，隨著我們在 2020 年這個時間點透過入住率和價格積極管理需求曲線，這一勢頭仍在繼續，所有核心部署的價格都高於前一年。

Beverage brands in our portfolio as well as higher pricing in 2025 demonstrate ongoing benefit of our demand generation efforts throughout our optimized portfolio. Our base loading strategy is continuing to work well, allowing us to take price thanks for having pulled ahead on occupancy. In fact, in the last three months of 2025 book positions, price advantage versus last year has actually widened for the full year.

我們產品組合中的飲料品牌以及 2025 年更高的定價證明了我們在整個優化產品組合中創造需求的努力所帶來的持續效益。 我們的基本裝載策略繼續運作良好，使我們能夠因入住率的提高而獲得價格。 事實上，在 2025 年圖書持倉量的最後三個月中，全年的價格優勢實際上已經擴大。

And for each quarter individually and with nearly half of 2025 already booked, we feel confident in maintaining our trajectory. While early days, the benefit of our commercial performance is carrying nicely into 2026 as we just achieved record booking volumes in the last three months per sailing day.

對於每個季度來說，2025 年近一半的時間已經預訂，我們對保持我們的發展軌跡充滿信心。 雖然處於早期階段，但我們的商業表現所帶來的好處將很好地延續到 2026 年，因為我們在過去三個月的每個航行日剛剛實現了創紀錄的預訂量。

Farha, this incredibly strong booked position for 2024, 2025 and 2026 drove record third quarter customer deposits towards $7 billion, and that's along with continued growth in Precor repurchases. Onboard revenue, which also gratifying to know note that onboard spending levels were not only perhaps draw again this quarter.

Farha 表示，2024 年、2025 年和 2026 年的預訂狀況極為強勁，推動第三季客戶存款達到創紀錄的 70 億美元，同時 Precor 回購的持續成長。 令人欣慰的是，機上收入不僅可能在本季再次下降，機上支出水準也可能再次下降。

Our year over year improvement in our Board reviewed actually accelerate from the prior quarter. In essence, all demand indicators are continuing to move in the right direction. And we have so much more of the pipeline to sustain this momentum, including the North American premiere of the highly successful, some Princess and just a few weeks. This will be followed by the introduction of our sister ship store resets, the second next-generation Princess ships coming online in the year.

我們的董事會審查的同比改進實際上比上一季有所加快。 本質上，所有需求指標都在繼續朝著正確的方向發展。 我們還有更多的管道來維持這一勢頭，包括非常成功的《公主》的北美首映以及短短幾週的時間。 接下來將介紹我們的姊妹船商店重置，第二艘下一代公主船將在今年上線。

We also continue to invest in the existing fleet with major modernization programs like you to Evolution expected to deliver additional revenue up over the coming years. As you know, we're not just going to be buoyed by our ship. I can't wait for the introduction of our game changing Bahamian destination celebration. Keith Pitts by portals built for funds were opened in July 2020.

我們也繼續投資現有機隊，實施像您一樣的重大現代化計劃，預計將在未來幾年帶來額外收入。 如您所知，我們不僅僅依靠我們的船來支撐。 我迫不及待地想了解我們改變遊戲規則的巴哈馬目的地慶祝活動。 Keith Pitts 為基金建立的入口網站於 2020 年 7 月開放。

Probably said, celebration key serves as a premium call for your time, key Carnival Cruise Line should rest assured, we're already planning for our Phase 2 land site development to fully leverage. The use of for votes were built in 2026. There's also the mid-year introduction of a Teuber peer. It happening.

或許可以說，慶典鑰匙是對您時間的溢價召喚，嘉年華郵輪公司應該放心，我們已經在規劃我們的二期陸地開發，以充分利用。 for votes 的使用於 2026 年建立。 它正在發生。

Key are naturally local and pristine beach consistently rated among the top private island in the Caribbean. These two destination will be available to even our largest shifts, further reducing fuel costs and our environmental footprint at the same time state to as we'll be sharing more exciting reveals about half of the key in the next few months.

關鍵是自然的當地原始海灘一直被評為加勒比地區頂級私人島嶼。 這兩個目的地將適用於我們最大的班次，進一步降低燃料成本和我們的環境足跡，同時我們將在接下來的幾個月內分享更多令人興奮的信息，大約一半的關鍵。

We're also stepping up our marketing efforts in the fourth quarter, which David I will touch on. Our elevated marketing investment has been working as we continue to drive demand well in excess of our capacity growth. With year to date, web visits up over 40% versus 2019, they search for more than 60% and national search up over 70% of our brands are generating under creative marketing and constantly finding ways to attract more attention to the phasing, product and execution.

我們還將在第四季度加大行銷力度，大衛我將談到這一點。 我們增加的行銷投資一直在發揮作用，因為我們繼續推動需求遠遠超過我們的產能成長。 今年迄今為止，我們品牌的網路訪問量比2019 年增長了40% 以上，搜尋量超過60%，全國搜尋量超過70%，這些都是在創意行銷的幫助下產生的，並不斷尋找方法來吸引更多人對階段、產品和服務的關注。

We already know the crop book and it is continuing to pay off as we chip away at it on warranty price disparity, Savant base vacations. All of these activities, along with strong support from our travel agent partners have allowed us to once again take share from land base period as we attract even more new to cruise guests.

我們已經了解了作物手冊，並且隨著我們在保固價格差異、Savant 基礎假期方面不斷縮小，它正在繼續獲得回報。 所有這些活動，加上我們旅行社合作夥伴的大力支持，使我們能夠再次從陸地基地時期獲得份額，吸引更多新郵輪客人。

In fact, both new-to-cruise and EPS were up double digit percentages overlap last year. Now turning to our balance. We expect to continue on our path toward investment grade and have a clear line of sight for further debt paydown.

事實上，去年新遊輪和每股盈餘都實現了兩位數百分比的重疊。 現在轉向我們的平衡。 我們預計將繼續邁向投資等級的道路，並對進一步償還債務有清晰的願景。

Having recently finalized our order book through 2020, we have just really ship spread over the next four to one shift delivery 2025, 26 and one ship in each of 2027 in 2020. At this limited order book should also position us well to continue to create demand in excess of capacity growth.

最近我們敲定了2020 年的訂單，我們在接下來的2025 年交付4 到1 班次，2027 年每年交付26 艘船，2020 年交付一艘船。創造良好的條件。

For our continued focus on high-margin same ship. Your growth should deliver improving EBITDA off of this year's record levels . Of course, strong and growing free cash flow and further debt reduction provided consistent formula for ongoing improvement in our leverage metrics and a continuation in the trajectory we have experienced already this year, resulting in a true churn movement in debt to EBITDA in just nine months. We have certainly come a long way in a relatively short amount of time.

因為我們持續關注高利潤同船。 您的成長將使 EBITDA 較今年的創紀錄水準有所提高。 當然，強勁且不斷增長的自由現金流以及進一步的債務削減為我們槓桿指標的持續改善以及我們今年已經經歷的軌蹟的延續提供了一致的公式，導致債務在短短九個月內就發生了EBITDA的真正流失。 我們確實在相對較短的時間內取得了長足的進步。

Just two years, we've already more than doubled our revenue and are going from negative EBITDA to and an expected all time high of $6 billion this year. This remarkable achievement is all states to our global team. They continue to outperform as we progress through 2024, and they are also setting us up for a successful 2025 is there continued execution that has put us firmly on the path to achieving our supply chain targets.

僅僅兩年時間，我們的收入就已經增加了一倍多，今年的 EBITDA 也從負值上升到 60 億美元的歷史新高。 這項非凡的成就是我們全球團隊的所有國家的成果。 隨著我們在 2024 年取得進展，他們將繼續表現出色，如果持續的執行力使我們堅定地走上實現供應鏈目標的道路，他們也將為我們在 2025 年取得成功做好準備。

And just as important say, once again powered our ability to deliver unforgettable package to nearly 4 million guests passport by providing them with extraordinary, please vacations while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sail placement visits life we touch. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

同樣重要的是，我們再次增強了向近 400 萬護照旅客提供難忘套餐的能力，為他們提供非凡、愉快的假期，同時尊重我們航行的每一個海洋的完整性，以及我們接觸到的生活。 這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫。

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our 2024 third quarter results. Next, I will provide the highlights of our fourth quarter September guidance, some color on or improved full year guidance, along with a few other things to consider 2025. Then I'll finish up with an update on our refinancing and deleveraging efforts such.

謝謝你，喬許。 今天我將先總結 2024 年第三季的業績。 接下來，我將提供我們第四季度9 月份指導的重點、對全年指導的一些說明或改進，以及2025 年需要考慮的其他一些事項。 然後我將介紹我們的再融資和去槓桿化工作的其他一些事項。最新情況。

Turning to the summary of our the third quarter results. Net income exceeded your guidance by $170 million as we outperformed once again, the outperformance was essentially driven by two things. First favorability in revenue were $40 million as yields came in at 8.7% compared to the prior year. This was seven tenths of a point better than June guidance, driven by close can strengthen ticket prices as well as onboard and other spending.

轉向我們第三季業績的摘要。 淨利潤超出您的指導 1.7 億美元，因為我們再次跑贏大市，這種跑贏大市主要是由兩件事驅動的。 首期收入為 4,000 萬美元，收益率為 8.7%（與前一年相比）。 這比 6 月的指導值高出十分之七，原因是收盤價格以及船上和其他支出都會上漲。

Second, cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day or ALDV. improved slightly compared to the prior year. We're nearly five percentage points better than June guidance, which was worth over $125 million. The third quarter benefited from cost saving opportunities, accelerated easing and inflationary pressures, benefits from one-time items and the timing of expenses between the quarters.

其次，每個可用下舖日或 ALDV 不含燃油的遊輪費用。與上年相比略有改善。 我們比 6 月的指導值高出近 5 個百分點，該指導值的價值超過 1.25 億美元。 第三季受益於成本節約機會、加速寬鬆和通膨壓力、一次性專案的好處以及各季度之間的支出時間表。

Most of the third quarter. Cruise cost benefits will flow through as an improvement to our full year September guidance presumes for the third quarter improved nearly 6% versus the prior year, driven by higher ticket prices and improved onboard spending on both sides of the Atlantic.

第三季的大部分時間。 由於票價上漲和大西洋兩岸船上支出增加，我們預計第三季第三季將比去年同期提高近 6%，因此遊輪成本效益將得到改善。

At the same time, our European brands on the path back to higher I can conceive of these saw outsized growth in occupancy of five percentage points as compared to the third quarter of 2023. For the third quarter, we reported record shedding operating results with strong demand and delivering record revenues, record yields, record premiums and record operating income.

同時，我們的歐洲品牌正在回歸更高的軌道，我可以想像，與2023 年第三季度相比，這些品牌的入住率大幅增長了5 個百分點。營運業績，強勁的業績需求並提供創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的收益率、創紀錄的保費和創紀錄的營業收入。

Now two things to highlight about on the fourth quarter. September gauge. The positive trends we saw in the third quarter are expected to continue in the fourth. Your guidance growth from the fourth quarter is set at 5% over the prior year. The difference between the yield guidance for the fourth quarter and the third quarter yield improvement of 8.7% is the result of a tougher prior-year comparison as fourth quarter 2023, premiums were up over 10% versus just 5% for the third quarter of 2023.

現在第四季有兩件事需要強調。 九月計。 我們在第三季度看到的積極趨勢預計將在第四季度繼續下去。 您對第四季的指導成長設定為比上一年增長 5%。 第四季的收益率指引與第三季殖利率提高8.7% 之間的差異是由於與上年相比更為嚴格，2023 年第四季的保費上漲了10% 以上，而2023 年第三季度的保費僅為5% 。

Having said that, it is great to see that we anticipate continued strong yield growth in the fourth quarter, and that is driven primarily by price cruise costs without fuel per available. Lower berth day for the fourth quarter are expected to be up 8% like first quarter of 2020 for which was up 7.3%. Both quarters are impacted by higher drydock days and higher advertising expenses planned. And we did have about $25 million of anticipated third quarter cost shift to the fourth quarter.

話雖如此，我們很高興看到第四季度的收益率持續強勁增長，這主要是由不含可用燃料的遊輪成本價格推動的。 第四季的下舖日預計將比 2020 年第一季成長 7.3%，成長 8%。 這兩個季度都受到乾船塢天數增加和計劃廣告費用增加的影響。 我們確實有大約 2500 萬美元的預期第三季成本轉移到了第四季。

As I have said many times relative to cruise cost per KOBD. judge us on the full year, not the quarters. As we often see certain cost items like drydock expense, advertising and other items have differentiation authorizations between the quarters from year to year 2024 is a great example of this where cruise costs without fuel per ALBD were up 7.3% in the first quarter, essentially flat in the second quarter, improved slightly in the third quarter entered Q4.

正如我多次說過的，相對於每 KOBD 的遊輪成本。以全年而非季度來評判我們。 正如我們經常看到的，某些成本項目（如乾船塢費用、廣告和其他項目）在各季度之間有差異化授權，2024 年就是一個很好的例子，其中每ALBD 不含燃油的遊輪成本在第一季上漲了7.3%，基本持平第二季略有改善，第三季進入Q4。

Turning to our improved full year, our September guidance net income for September guidance set at $1.76 billion, a $210 million improvement over our June guidance. This improvement was driven by three things. First, an improvement in yields to 10.4% by flowing through there, $40 million revenue benefit from the third quarter. Second, a one point improvement in cruise cost per ALBD to approximately 3.5% from flowing through $100 million of the $125 million.

談到我們改善的全年業績，我們 9 月份的指導淨利潤為 17.6 億美元，比 6 月份的指導提高了 2.1 億美元。 這項改進是由三件事推動的。 首先，透過流經該市場，收益率提高至 10.4%，第三季營收達 4,000 萬美元。 其次，每 ALBD 的郵輪成本從 1.25 億美元中的 1 億美元減少到約 3.5%。

Cost benefit from the third quarter were $225 million rescission rise to the fourth quarter, as I previously mentioned. And third, a benefit from fuel price and currency were $70 million for a strong 10.4% improvement in 2020 for yields as a result of the increase in ore, the component parts, higher ticket prices, higher onboard spending and higher occupancy at historical levels with all three components improving on both sides of the Atlantic.

正如我之前提到的，第三季的成本收益比第四季增加了 2.25 億美元。 第三，由於礦石、零件增加、票價上漲、船上支出增加以及歷史水準的入住率增加，2020 年產量大幅提高 10.4%，燃油價格和貨幣帶來的收益為 7,000 萬美元。三個組成部分都在改善。

Now a few things to you to consider. For 2025, we are forecasting a capacity increase of chest seven tenths of a percent compared to 2024. We are well positioned to drive 2025 pricing higher with less inventory remaining to sell than the same time last year. We are also looking forward to the introduction of our game-changing Bahamian destination celebration key in July 2025.

現在有幾件事需要您考慮。 與 2024 年相比，我們預計 2025 年的產能將增加十分之七。 我們也期待 2025 年 7 月推出改變遊戲規則的巴哈馬目的地慶祝鑰匙。

We anticipate that celebration key will be a smash hit with our guests and provided excellent return on our investments. However, we do expect that the operating expenses for the destination will impact our overall year-over-year cost comparisons by about half a point in 2025, we are expecting 688 drydockings, an increase of 17% versus 2024, which will also impact our overall year over year cost comparison by about three quarters of a point.

我們預計慶祝鑰匙將受到我們的客人的熱烈歡迎，並為我們的投資帶來豐厚的回報。 然而，我們確實預計，到2025 年，該目的地的營運費用將影響我們的整體年比成本比較約半個百分點，我們預計將有688 個乾船塢，比2024 年增加17%，這也將影響我們的整體成本較去年同期下降約四分之三點。

I will finish up with a summary of our reach, refinancing and deleveraging efforts with record third quarter EBITDA of $2.8 billion, our efforts to proactively manage our debt profile contracting. Since June, we prepaid another $625 million of debt, bringing our total prepayments $7.3 billion since the beginning of 2023. Additionally, we successfully upsized the borrowing capacity on our revolving credit facility by nearly $500 million, bringing the total undrawn commitment to $3 billion back to it 2019 levels.

最後，我將總結我們的影響力、再融資和去槓桿化努力，第三季 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 28 億美元，以及我們為主動管理債務狀況收縮所做的努力。 自6 月以來，我們又預付了6.25 億美元的債務，使我們自2023 年初以來的預付款總額達到73 億美元。未提取承諾總額回到了30 億美元到2019年的水準。

Furthermore, we will continue to look for more opportunistic refinancings over time. Our leverage metrics will continue to improve in 2024 as our EBITDA continues to grow and our debt levels improve. Using our September guidance EBITDA of $6 billion. We expect better than I to churn improvement in net debt to EBITDA leverage compared to year end 2023, approaching 4.5 times and positioning us to surge of the way down the path to investment grade metrics.

此外，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續尋找更多機會主義的再融資。 隨著我們的 EBITDA 持續成長和債務水準改善，我們的槓桿指標將在 2024 年繼續改善。 使用我們 9 月份 60 億美元的 EBITDA 指引。 與 2023 年底相比，我們比我更期望淨債務與 EBITDA 槓桿率的改善，接近 4.5 倍，並使我們能夠在投資級指標的道路上一路飆升。

Looking forward, we expect substantial free cash flow driven by our ongoing focus on operational execution and among the lowest newbuild order book in decades to deliver continued improvements in our leverage metrics and our balance sheet moving us further down the road to rebuilding our financial fortress while continuing the process of transferring value from debt holders back to shareholders.

展望未來，我們預計，在我們對營運執行的持續關注和幾十年來最低的新訂單簿的推動下，我們將獲得大量自由現金流，從而持續改善我們的槓桿指標和資產負債表，從而推動我們在重建金融堡壘的道路上進一步前進，同時繼續將價值從債務持有人轉移回股東的過程。

Now, operator, let's open up the call for questions.

現在，接線員，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

馬修‧博斯，摩根大通。

Great, thanks and congrats on another really nice quarter. Measurement. So Josh, on the continued momentum, maybe could you elaborate on the stronger base of business for 2025 and a record start to 2026 that you cited? Maybe if you could touch on volume and pricing trends that you're currently seeing across regions and maybe specifically in Europe?

太好了，謝謝並祝賀又一個非常美好的季度。 測量。 Josh，關於持續的勢頭，您能否詳細說明一下您提到的 2025 年業務基礎更加強勁以及 2026 年創紀錄的開局？ 或許可以談談您目前在各地區（尤其是歐洲）看到的銷售和價格趨勢嗎？

Sure. So I'm probably broad base is the best way to talk about the strength in what we're seeing on 2025. The, um, the book position is higher for both North America and European brands, and that's consistent across the quarters as well. So we're positioned very well.

當然。 因此，我認為廣泛的基礎可能是談論我們在 2025 年看到的實力的最佳方式。 所以我們的定位非常好。

Our brands have been doing a great job job of pulling forward the booking curve, and we're going to take price, which is which is the goal. So it is a is very encouraging. We are we're about we're about two thirds both when you look at next 12 months. So we're in a pretty enviable place, Matt, as you have a follow-up.

我們的品牌在推動預訂曲線方面做得很好，我們將採取價格，這就是我們的目標。 所以這是非常令人鼓舞的。 當你看看未來 12 個月時，我們大約是三分之二。 所以我們處於一個非常令人羨慕的地方，馬特，因為你有後續行動。

Yes, thanks. So maybe just a follow up would be on the balance sheet. If you could speak to capital priorities from here, just given the free cash flow generations and some of the changes that you've made. So you're basically on a priority one, two and three is debt reduction.

是的，謝謝。 因此，也許只是在資產負債表上進行後續行動。 如果您可以從這裡談論資本優先事項，請考慮自由現金流的產生和您所做的一些改變。 所以你的首要任務第一、第二和第三就是減少債務。

You know, we have the goal of becoming investment grade, and we do expect to see both the reduction in our debt levels as well as the improvement in our EBITDA achieved investment grade metrics as part of our SeaChange program towards the end of 2026. And so we've got plenty of time to think about it. Our alternatives are beyond that.

您知道，我們的目標是成為投資等級，我們確實希望看到我們的債務水平下降以及 EBITDA 的改善，作為我們 SeaChange 計劃的一部分，到 2026 年底實現投資級指標。 我們的選擇遠不止於此。

Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

史蒂夫·維琴斯基，斯蒂菲爾。

Hey, guys, good morning and congratulations on a strong quarter and the outlook. So so to answer, David, this is maybe some of the short sighted question. David, you touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks, but we tend to think about the fourth quarter your guidance. It looks to us you might be a little bit lower versus the implied guidance for the fourth quarter back in that you do back in June. So just still just wondering if there's anything from a whether it's a pricing perspective or any geography, your brand.

嘿，夥計們，早上好，祝賀強勁的季度和前景。 大衛，這麼回答，這可能是一些短視的問題。 大衛，您在準備好的演講中談到了這一點，但我們傾向於考慮您對第四季度的指導。 在我們看來，與 6 月的第四季隱含指導相比，您的指導可能會稍低一些。 所以我仍然想知道是否有任何東西從定價角度或任何地理位置，你的品牌。

It is showing any anomalies, rumored softness, but I guess I have to use that word or weakening in pricing during the fourth quarter or are you guys just taking a more conservative view around onboard spending over the next over the next couple of months?

它顯示出任何異常情況，傳聞中的疲軟，但我想我必須使用這個詞或第四季度定價的疲軟，或者你們只是對未來幾個月的船上支出持更保守的看法？

This is Josh. Actually, I'm I'm not sure your math there is really no change from where we were in June guidance when it comes to reorder. When we came out with our guidance, frankly, in in December, we were challenged allow, particularly on the fourth quarter. And people didn't think we'd be able to actually reach a breakeven year year-over-year because the fourth quarter of 23 was so strong.

這是喬許。 事實上，我不確定你的數學在重新排序方面與我們六月的指導相比是否真的沒有變化。 坦白說，當我們在 12 月發布指導意見時，我們面臨挑戰，特別是在第四季。 人們並不認為我們能夠真正實現同比收支平衡，因為 23 年第四季的表現非常強勁。

So now we're talking about 5%, and we feel we feel good about that. Okay, got you. And then just want to ask about the 25 and 26 bookings. And you talked about how you're already 50% booked for next year. And it's a pretty good position. It seems like already for 2026.

所以現在我們談論的是 5%，我們對此感覺很好。 好的，明白了。 然後想問25號和26號的預訂狀況。 您談到明年的預訂量已經達到 50%。 這是一個非常好的位置。 看起來已經是 2026 年了。

So just wondering if you think about your your booking window, has it expanded too much we're seeing that differently? Are you nearing a point where you might start leaving, you might be leaving money on the table is if demand kind of Steve's status quo from here? And then following up on that question, just No, just wondering, have you seen demand accelerated for for bookings maybe more in late 25 and 26 that are going to be touching celebration key?

所以想知道您是否考慮過您的預訂窗口，它是否擴大太多，我們看到的情況有所不同？ 你是否已經快要開始離開了，如果需求符合史蒂夫現在的現狀，你可能會把錢留在桌上？ 然後跟進這個問題，只是不，只是想知道，您是否看到 25 月底和 26 日的預訂需求可能會加速，這將觸及慶祝關鍵？

Sure. So as the gray point on the booking curve from the goal is not an ever increasing booking curve is to maximize the revenue that we're going to generate BioTime resale. I would say this is a brand-by-brand itinerary by itinerary, build up. And I would say that almost all of our brands are pretty much our higher year over year.

當然。 因此，由於目標預訂曲線上的灰點不是不斷增加的預訂曲線，因此我們將產生 BioTime 轉售收入最大化。 我想說，這是逐品牌的行程，逐一品牌的行程，逐步建立。 我想說的是，我們幾乎所有的品牌都比去年同期更高。

There's one that's not and that's an active decision to pull back a bit. We want to make sure we're not moving price on the table exactly to your point. So despite the fact that overall, we're in a record position, we are looking at a obviously a lot more clinical. I am making sure we're doing the right thing to optimize net revenue. When it comes to some celebration, we are key.

有一個不是，這是一個積極的決定，要稍微撤退。 我們希望確保我們不會將桌面上的價格完全按照您的觀點調整。 因此，儘管總體而言，我們處於創紀錄的位置，但我們正在關注顯然更加臨床的情況。 我確保我們正在做正確的事情來優化淨收入。 當談到一些慶祝活動時，我們是關鍵。

Clearly, there's a premium and it's going to benefit us in particular, is the 2026 ongoing story when we get to ramp up to about 20 ships, which is going to be, which is going to be pretty even fantastic. And the fact that we're doing all of this that we've been able to talk about what 2024 and even into the first half of 25, Scott, nothing to do its own version, Kate, this is just based on the natural demand and other commercial activities that we're doing and delivering an onboard.

顯然，這是有溢價的，這將使我們特別受益，這是 2026 年正在進行的故事，屆時我們將增加到大約 20 艘船，這將是，這將是非常美妙的。 事實上，我們正​​在做的所有這一切，我們已經能夠談論 2024 年甚至 25 上半年，斯科特，沒有做自己的版本，凱特，這只是基於自然需求以及我們正在船上進行和提供的其他商業活動。

And that's that's supporting real strong revenue increases done two things that just really appreciated Congress going to exit.

這就是支持真正強勁的收入成長，做了兩件事，這讓國會非常讚賞國會的退出。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Great. Thank you. And I know it's too early to give guidance for 2025, major point anyway, preliminary sense as to I guess, maybe just ask it this way, which I think inherently everything you're saying about the position for 2025 and even 2020 16 at record levels, is it fair to say that you're off to a better start for 2025 than a typical year?

偉大的。 謝謝。 我知道現在給出2025 年指導還為時過早，無論如何，主要觀點是，我猜的初步感覺，也許只是這樣問，我認為本質上你所說的關於2025 年甚至2020 年16 月記錄的立場的一切水平，可以公平地說 2025 年的開局比往年更好嗎？

So hopefully, that's an SME Ascot. And then and then we also did just to clarify on the expense on a given who we mentioned the $25 million of expense that was sort of your own. I know that, that will start in Q4, that kind of shifted that $25 million. But was there a separate amount? And I apologize if I missed this, but was there was a one-time cost saves this year that we should think about coming back in 2025? I just wanted to catch what that amount was and either way it was for a future that things.

希望這是中小企業阿斯科特賽馬會。 然後我們也只是澄清了我們提到的 2500 萬美元的費用，這有點像你自己的費用。 我知道，這將從第四季度開始，這相當於 2500 萬美元的轉移。 但有單獨的金額嗎？ 如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但今年是否有一次性成本節省，我們應該考慮在 2025 年回歸？ 我只是想知道這個金額是多少，無論怎樣，它都是為了未來的事情。

Okay. So I'll actually very directly answer your question. So we are starting off even better for $25 million than we did for 2024, which is shaping up to be a record year. We are higher and occupancy and were higher in price. And the brands are doing a great job of really trying to optimize that booking curve and revenue generation.

好的。 所以我實際上會非常直接地回答你的問題。 因此，我們的起點甚至比 2024 年的 2,500 萬美元更好，2024 年將創紀錄的一年。 我們的入住率更高，價格也更高。 這些品牌在努力優化預訂曲線和創造收入方面做得非常出色。

So that's not guidance, but it's a point in time. And that's where we are and different things. First, the second question is concerned, yes, there were a couple of reasons why we've reduced costs by four points in year. one included some one-time benefits on was a huge probably about 20,000,100 million dollars related to some pension credits in a few other little things, half of the year.

所以這不是指導，而是一個時間點。 這就是我們的處境和不同的事情。 首先，第二個問題是，是的，我們一年中成本降低了四個百分點，有幾個原因。 其中一項包括一些一次性福利，大約是 200001 億美元，與一些其他小事情中的一些退休金抵免額有關，半年時間。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho Securities.

Ben Chaiken，瑞穗證券。

Hagemann on the cost side, EBITDA flow-through has been from stronger than expected was almost 60%. Costs have been better generally for the majority of the year. Can you talk about some of the cost saves margin opportunities are finding is just simply better leveraging a fleet that is now a leaner subsequent to some of the asset sales over the past few years? Or is it costs that you're actively pulling out of the business or for both? Thanks.

哈格曼在成本方面，EBITDA 流量已經強於預期近 60%。 今年的大部分時間裡，成本總體上都比較好。 您能否談談我們發現的一些節省成本和利潤的機會只是為了更好地利用在過去幾年進行一些資產出售後變得更加精簡的機隊？ 還是您主動退出該業務或兩者兼而有之的成本？ 謝謝。

It's not costs, and we'll put pulling it in the business. I mean, what we're seeing is hundreds of small items across the board across many brands, things like gum, crew, travel savings, other port port savings opportunities as well as a lot of sources, savings, cost, elimination of better leveraging our scale across all the brands. And that probably represented about half of the $100 million over our cost savings that we can roll through for the full year.

這不是成本，我們會把它投入到業務中。 我的意思是，我們看到的是許多品牌的數百種小項目，例如口香糖、船員、旅行節省、其他港口節省機會以及大量資源、節省、成本、消除更好的槓桿作用我們在所有品牌中的規模。 這可能相當於我們全年可以節省的 1 億美元成本的一半左右。

That's helpful. And then I guess for Josh higher-level, you folded P&O Australia into the Carnival brand this year. I know it was somewhat smaller scale, but do you think there's other opportunities to streamline the portfolio in a similar way going forward? Thanks.

這很有幫助。 然後我猜想，對於 Josh 高層來說，今年你將 P&O Australia 併入了嘉年華品牌。 我知道規模較小，但您認為未來有其他機會以類似的方式簡化投資組合嗎？ 謝謝。

I never say never take things off the table. I think this is one of those are decisions that just made a lot of sense and something that we felt pretty passionately about executing quickly. We'll continue to review our portfolio brand-by-brand ship by ship. But right now, we feel real good about how we're entering 2025.

我從來沒有說過永遠不要把事情從桌面上拿下來。 我認為這是非常有意義的決定之一，也是我們非常熱衷於快速執行的決定之一。 我們將繼續逐個品牌地審查我們的產品組合。 但現在，我們對即將進入 2025 年感到非常滿意。

James Hardiman, Citi.

花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

Hey, good morning. I wanted to dig into some of the cost commentary. You gave us some, David, so 3.5% growth for this year. That seems like it's getting better. He is leaving some cost saves and maybe better inflation. I know you called out about a half a point next year for celebration key, another 75 bids come from drydock. I guess, are there any call-outs them on the other side of that equation?

嘿，早安。 我想深入研究一些成本評論。 大衛，你給了我們一些，所以今年成長了 3.5%。 看來情況正在好轉。 他將節省一些成本，或許還有更好的通膨。 我知道您對明年的慶祝鑰匙提出了大約半分的要求，另外 75 個投標來自乾船塢。 我想，等式的另一邊有沒有對他們進行標註？

I don't think our starting point should be in that 5% range. If we were just take the 3.5 this year. And add add those two callouts. Maybe talk us through sort of what the base level of inflation news as we think about 2025 and any other sort of positive factors that will help us offset some of the negative ones for next year.

我認為我們的起點不應該在 5% 的範圍內。 如果我們今年只選擇 3.5 的話。 並加入這兩個標註。 也許可以告訴我們有關 2025 年通膨新聞的基本水平以及任何其他有助於我們抵消明年負面因素的積極因素。

No well, as some of you know, exactly when inflation is going to be over the next 15 months. Let me now, but we're still trying to figure that out. There is some level of inflation that continues in our business will include that within our guidance when we provided in December plus, we continue to work on cost saving opportunities.

正如你們中的一些人所知，未來 15 個月通貨膨脹的具體時間還不清楚。 現在讓我說，但我們仍在努力解決這個問題。 我們的業務中持續存在一定程度的通貨膨脹，包括在我們 12 月提供的指導範圍內，我們將繼續致力於節省成本的機會。

As I said in the June call, even though we have to invest in our cost metrics in the business, we still believe there are opportunities in our business to further leverage our scale and to work through those opportunities as we did in the second, selling will include some of that in our guidance, which will offset some of inflation. And so but stay tuned. The two things that I gave in my prepared remarks were relative to the drydocks in the cost to celebrate. Kentucky are pretty well fixed at this point. So we wanted to highlight those in the prepared remarks.

正如我在6 月的電話會議中所說，儘管我們必須對業務成本指標進行投資，但我們仍然相信我們的業務有機會進一步利用我們的規模，並像我們在第二次會議中所做的那樣利用這些機會，銷售將在我們的指導中納入其中的一些內容，這將抵消部分通貨膨脹。 所以，請繼續關注。 我在準備好的發言中給出的兩件事與乾船塢的慶祝成本有關。 肯塔基州在這一點上已經很好地解決了。 因此，我們想在準備好的發言中強調這些內容。

Got it. And then obviously sounds like everything is going pretty well from a demand perspective. Maybe speak to one of the questions that we keep getting is the potential for the widening conflict in the Middle East to negatively impact your business. I mean that to some degree, it would seem to help that much of that region was already vacated in 2020 for I guess the hope was about 25 tailwind that now seems off the table. But just maybe speak to how if at all you expect that region to impact your business next year.

知道了。 從需求的角度來看，顯然一切都很順利。 也許我們不斷收到的問題之一是中東不斷擴大的衝突可能對您的業務產生負面影響。 我的意思是，在某種程度上，該地區的大部分地區在 2020 年已經騰空，這似乎有所幫助，因為我猜希望是大約 25 順風，但現在看來已經不可能了。 但也許可以談談您是否希望該地區明年對您的業務產生影響。

So we weren't banking on it getting better. And I hope to God it doesn't get worse on your thoughts are right, everybody in the Middle East region and hoping for piece. But our business isn't really contingent on it. It's not a major source market for us, and we're not going to the region. So unless it were to escalate to something significantly wider than the Middle East or shifts or mobile, and we're in source markets that are phenomenal for us with lots of lots of potential.

所以我們並不指望它會變得更好。 我向上帝祈禱，希望事情不會變得更糟，因為你們的想法是正確的，中東地區的每個人都希望得到一塊。 但我們的業務並不真正取決於它。 這不是我們的主要客源市場，我們不會去該地區。 因此，除非升級到比中東更廣泛的地區，或轉移或移動，否則我們所處的客源市場對我們來說是巨大的，具有很大的潛力。

Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯 (Patrick Scholes)，Truist 證券公司。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Good morning. My first question, you talked about the drydocks increasing next year. Can you give us a little more possible granularity in drydock increases or decreases for perhaps some quarters by quarter for next year from our own purposes? Thank you.

嘿，大家早安。 早安. 我的第一個問題，你談到明年乾船塢的增加。 您能否根據我們自己的目的，為我們提供更多可能的詳細信息，說明明年乾船塢的增加或減少可能會按季度進行？ 謝謝。

So I don't have all that detail handy and Patrick, but some could be called best insurance. She can provide. Okay. But we will call you.

所以帕特里克，我手邊沒有所有詳細信息，但有些可以稱為最好的保險。 她可以提供。 好的。 但我們會打電話給你。

Thank you. And then second, I see there's some news out about a new crews peer and have maintained on. Do you have any longer term plans above and beyond just appear offer happen today such as water parks and the like on the road? So um, was I'll give you a yes or no. So do we have more plans? Absolutely. Do we want to waterpark?

謝謝。 其次，我看到有一些關於新船員同行的消息，並一直堅持下去。 除了今天出現的優惠之外，您還有其他長期計劃嗎，例如路上的水上樂園等？ 所以，嗯，我會給你一個是或否。 那我們還有更多的計劃嗎？ 絕對地。 我們想去水樂園嗎？

Absolutely not. So the difference between celebration key and what we're building it up and separately, the division have Min, Kim, what we're building a celebration de-gear celebration key is really to have five portals have fun and looking to be that entertainment center of what we have at 0.5 MT. is one of the moves naturally beautiful lights and beach, Crescent shape islands in the Caribbean. And that's a true private destination and something that we want to enhance.

絕對不是。 因此，慶祝鍵和我們正在構建的東西之間的區別，分別是，該部門有 Min，Kim，我們正在構建的慶祝脫齒輪慶祝鍵實際上是讓五個門戶玩得開心，並希望成為娛樂我們0.5 MT 的中心。是加勒比海中自然美麗的燈光和海灘、新月形島嶼之一。 這是一個真正的私人目的地，也是我們想要加強的。

And we will be talking about that more over the Company months. I won't steal Christine Sundar, but good things coming. They're going to make that a pretty pretty amazing destination and of itself for a completely different reasons.

我們將在公司幾個月內更多地討論這一點。 我不會搶克里斯汀桑達爾，但好事即將來臨。 他們將出於完全不同的原因將其打造成一個非常令人驚嘆的目的地。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

布蘭特·蒙圖爾，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my questions. And so just starting off, we haven't really touched on a sea change in your three year targets there. We kind of got a little bit of an update in the release.

大家早安，感謝您提出我的問題。 因此，剛開始時，我們還沒有真正觸及你們三年目標的巨大變化。 我們在版本中進行了一些更新。

I guess the question is just with this new 24 full year guidance, obviously we can calculate the progress you're making and we can look at that number sort of imply some KPI is yields costs to get to those targets in its implying a pretty narrow and a pretty narrow spread between those two in would give us a sense that, you know that that would harken back to your what you gave us in the Investor Day, what you were thinking for per diems are sustainable and costs that were sustainable that you would think you could do better.

我想問題在於這個新的24 年全年指導，顯然我們可以計算您所取得的進展，我們可以看看這個數字，這意味著一些KPI 是實現這些目標的收益成本，因為它意味著一個相當狹窄的範圍這兩者之間的差距相當窄，這會給我們一種感覺，你知道，這會讓人回想起你在投資者日給我們的東西，你所考慮的每日津貼是可持續的，而且成本是可持續的，你會認為你可以做得更好。

So so I guess if you could just I know that there was a long-winded way of asking to say same question that you've already gotten twice, but if you could just give us a sense for how you think about the business in the current operating environment, given all the positive commentary you've said today vis-a-vis those longer-term targets?

所以我想你是否可以，我知道，有一種冗長的方式要求你說同樣的問題，你已經被問過兩次了，但如果你能讓我們了解你如何看待這個行業的業務，鑑於您今天對這些長期目標發表的所有正面評論，當前的營運環境如何？

I think the teams around the world are doing a phenomenal job. And you think about in December, we were saying up 8.5 points on a percent on yields of 4.5% on cost, which gets us to 9% ROIC and outsourcing of almost 10.5% on yields, only up 3.5% on cost. That gets us to 10.5% on ROIC. So clearly we're outperforming the expectations.

我認為世界各地的團隊都做得非常好。 想想 12 月份，我們說成本收益率提高了 8.5 個百分點，成本收益率為 4.5%，這使我們的 ROIC 達到 9%，外包收益率幾乎達到 10.5%，成本僅提高了 3.5%。 這使我們的投入資本回報率為 10.5%。 顯然我們的表現超越了預期。

That gets us about 75% of the way there for two of the metrics, the EBITDA per ALBD and the ROIC after one year were two years remaining. And then carbon is progressing as expected, were about 50% there after one year. So the teams with the teams are doing all those things to make targets, are doing those things to make their guests happy and provide great business results.

這使我們在兩個指標（即每 ALBD 的 EBITDA 和一年後的 ROIC）上達到了 75% 的目標。 然後碳排放正如預期進展，一年後約 50%。 因此，團隊正在做所有這些事情來製定目標，正在做這些事情來讓他們的客人滿意並提供良好的業務成果。

And the outcome is going to be hitting those targets. I want to hit them early. Yes. So I want to get farther than that, absolutely. But you know, we will take that and stride, and we'll probably talk more when we get to December guidance. You can put that in context where we'll end in 2025 and then take it from there.

結果將是實現這些目標。 我想早點打擊他們。 是的。 所以我絕對想走得更遠。 但你知道，我們會接受這一點並大步邁進，當我們得到 12 月的指導時，我們可能會談論更多。 您可以將其放在我們將於 2025 年結束的背景下，然後從那裡開始。

Okay. Thanks for that. And then just a follow-up, maybe, Josh, if you could address the broader land-based and leisure demand environment we're seeing elsewhere is not what cruises seen. We kind of see sort of steady, slow, somewhat softer normalization. We don't get any of that from you.

好的。 謝謝你。 然後，也許只是後續行動，喬希，如果你能解決我們在其他地方看到的更廣泛的陸地和休閒需求環境，而不是遊輪所看到的。 我們看到某種穩定、緩慢、稍微溫和的正常化。 我們沒有從你那裡得到任何資訊。

And your commentary today, I guess you know week understand why it's happening, but it is the rest of the world is narrowing a little bit toward a narrowing your, let's say, your gap from the top. Do you see any of that affecting your consumers' behavior and willingness to spend in sort of pricing sensitivity if we come, we are still a remarkable value to land-based alternatives.

你今天的評論，我猜你知道為什麼會發生這種情況，但世界其他地方正在縮小一點，以縮小你與最高層的差距。 您是否認為這些因素會影響您的消費者的行為和消費意願，如果我們來的話，我們仍然對陸基替代品具有非凡的價值。

And maybe Doug, maybe maybe elaborate a softening because we're doing better than us. You have asked them that I can't I can't tell you their business, but we have a tremendous value.

也許道格，也許會精心設計軟化措施，因為我們做得比我們更好。 你問他們我不能告訴你他們的業務，但我們有巨大的價值。

We are doing a better job of getting our word out on better marketing, more eyes on on the industry. More eyes on us, you know, are new to cruise. This past quarter was up about 17% year over year and does not by accident. And that's because our brands are really focused on driving driving that demand profiles. So I don't have a crystal ball, and I can't deal with the world's going to look like in a year from now two years from now.

我們正在更好地宣傳我們的訊息，進行更好的行銷，並更多地關注行業。 你知道，更多的目光注視著我們，是郵輪產業的新手。 上個季度年增約 17%，絕非偶然。 這是因為我們的品牌真正專注於推動需求概況。 所以我沒有水晶球，我無法應付世界在一年後、兩年後的樣貌。

But I can tell you if we keep focusing on commercial execution and doing the right things and doing them better than there's a long runway because the one thing that's never been a question on is can we execute on board and deliver a great experience. And that's always been the case is just a matter of how we convince people to come with us who have never have. And I think we're doing a good job on that.

但我可以告訴你，如果我們繼續專注於商業執行，做正確的事情，並且做得比漫長的跑道更好，因為從來沒有被問過的一件事是我們能否在船上執行並提供出色的體驗。 情況一直如此，只是我們如何說服從未有過的人與我們同行的問題。 我認為我們在這方面做得很好。

Great. Congrats on the quarter. Banking. I guess I'd be remiss if I didn't shut off the travel agents because all they do is amplify our voice in a tremendous way. And so that success and we're seeing and building that demand profile, and we appreciate their efforts thinking.

偉大的。 恭喜本季。 銀行業。 我想，如果我不關閉旅行社，那就是我的失職，因為他們所做的只是以巨大的方式放大我們的聲音。 因此，我們正在看到並建立這種需求概況，並且取得了成功，我們感謝他們的努力思考。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安，Melius 研究中心。

Thank you to maybe sticking with data that my comments on new-to-cruise, can you just look at your 25 bookings? Are you seeing new-to-cruise in new-to-brand accelerate? And if you could just touch on just the younger demographic, I think you're asking about last quarter, but it just it seems like a pretty big mega trend for you over the long term.

感謝您堅持使用我對郵輪新手的評論數據，您能看一下您的 25 個預訂嗎？ 您是否看到郵輪新品牌加速崛起？ 如果你能只談年輕一代，我想你問的是上個季度，但從長遠來看，這對你來說似乎是一個相當大的大趨勢。

Thanks. I'm sorry, I got distracted right. As far as far as what the demand profile is for the future bookings, we don't really talk about that in advance, but we're happy to talk about it when we get to our results and we can talk about what the breakdown is for the profile of the folks who sale.

謝謝。 對不起，我分心了。 至於未來預訂的需求概況，我們不會提前談論它，但我們很樂意在得到結果時談論它，我們可以談論細分是什麼查看銷售人員的個人資料。

But suffice it to say everything I'm saying on it is not ending in 2024 with respect to our efforts to keep optimizing and keep getting better at execution and keep driving that demand profile and cutting net-net as widely as we can, we have almost no capacity growth. So all of that increased demand is just going to result in who wants to pay the most again on our ships. And that's what we're driving for.

但我想說的是，我所說的一切都不會在 2024 年結束，我們將不斷優化、不斷提高執行力、繼續推動需求概況並儘可能廣泛地削減淨額，我們已經幾乎沒有產能增長。 因此，所有這些增加的需求只會導致誰願意再次為我們的船隻支付最多的費用。 這就是我們努力的目標。

And as far as the age for kraftliner is concerned, I think we've touched on this last quarter. I mean, if you look back at all of our brands over the last 10, 12 years or so on the average age for most of the brands really hasn't changed.

就牛皮紙的歷史而言，我認為我們在上個季度已經談到了這一點。 我的意思是，如果你回顧過去 10、12 年左右我們所有的品牌，大多數品牌的平均年齡確實沒有改變。

Now, of course, the repeat guests who sales a decade ago or 10 years old have at the averages each of our guests. We are attracting a lot of new young people on. And some of our brands like Carnival Cruise Lines has an average age of like 41 years old.

當然，現在，十年前或十年前銷售的回頭客的平均水平與我們每位客人的平均水平相同。 我們吸引了許多新的年輕人。 我們的一些品牌，如嘉年華郵輪公司，平均年齡約為 41 歲。

So yes, that's a brand, obviously, millennials these days or I think it's 43 or 44 years old or younger. And that does represent half over half the population in the United States. But Carnival's got over half of its gas who are millennials because the average age is $41 million. If I would say, I think I said this on either the last call on the call before on we love boomers, right?

所以，是的，這顯然是一個品牌，現在的千禧世代，或者我認為它的年齡是 43 歲、44 歲或更年輕。 這確實代表了美國一半以上的人口。 但嘉年華的一半以上是千禧世代，因為平均年齡為 4,100 萬美元。 如果我要說，我想我在之前的最後一次電話會議上說過我們愛嬰兒潮一代，對嗎？

And we love Janet SME book . I mean, it is if you think about our portfolio approach, you know, we have brands like Holland America, like Qunar where that is, where they're they're trying to push that demand profile because it's folks with very good income, a very good retirement and base and a lot of time to take cruises that can know 14 nice 21 night world crews.

我們喜歡 Janet SME 的書。 我的意思是，如果你考慮一下我們的投資組合方法，你知道，我們有像荷蘭美國這樣的品牌，比如去哪兒，他們在努力推動這種需求狀況，因為這是那些收入很高的人，一個非常好的退休和基地，有很多時間乘坐遊輪，可以認識14 名優秀的21 夜世界船員。

So we love the fact that we're pushing harder into that millennial generation, and we're getting that interest and demand profile. But we don't want that to the exclusion of really leaning into the other generations for what we have to offer.

因此，我們喜歡這樣一個事實：我們正在更加努力地推動千禧世代的發展，並且我們正在獲得這種興趣和需求概況。 但我們不希望這種情況排除我們真正向其他世代提供我們所提供的東西的可能性。

Helpful. I'm celebration key, and you've gotten a lot of questions on that. Just what is happening now in mid of next year, I think is it creating the halo effect that you would have ever expected like our people asking for it? Or maybe asking all the different? I think you mentioned 19 ships are going to touch there. Like are those ones selling out quicker than you would have expected point perverse relative total history in general? Thank you.

有幫助。 我是慶祝關鍵，你們對此有很多問題。 明年年中現在發生的事情，我認為它是否會產生您所期望的光環效應，就像我們人民所要求的那樣？ 或者也許問所有不同的問題？ 我想你提到有 19 艘船將到達那裡。 這些產品的銷售速度是否比您預期的相對總歷史記錄快？ 謝謝。

But unfortunately, because every corner of ownership is going, there's no, you know, there's no test case but season. So yes, we are seeing a premium for we are seeing people that are seeking it out. And the good thing is that hasn't even open yet. So we think the rubber is really going to hit the road once we can deliver the experience and really show people what the what it can do.

但不幸的是，因為所有權的每個角落都在消失，所以沒有，你知道，除了賽季之外沒有測試案例。 所以，是的，我們看到了溢價，因為我們看到人們正在尋求它。 好消息是它還沒有開放。 因此，我們認為，一旦我們能夠提供體驗並真正向人們展示它的功能，橡膠就會真正上路。

David Katz, Jefferies.

大衛‧卡茨，傑弗里斯。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I buy a high. I am I appreciate all the details so far. And what's interesting when we look across our coverage, there are some smaller pockets of weakness that consumers who have started to demonstrate here and there and this is a broadly based positive quarter.

大家早安。 感謝您提出我的問題。 我買高的。 我很欣賞到目前為止的所有細節。 有趣的是，當我們縱觀我們的報道時，消費者已經開始到處表現出一些較小的弱點，而這是一個基礎廣泛的積極季度。

And I just wanted to double click on the issue of are there any small pockets, any any areas of consumer behavior that we should just keep an eye on as we go forward that are again embedded in what appears to be a pretty broad based on a strong quarter and outlook?

我只是想雙擊這個問題，即是否有任何小口袋，任何我們在前進時應該關注的消費者行為領域，這些行為再次嵌入到似乎相當廣泛的基礎上強勁的季度和前景？

No, I appreciate the question of I guess I'm happy that I just have to say no, what we're seeing is, in fact, broad-based resume that demand for all the brands are pretty much across the portfolio. Overseeing is in the booking trends that we've talked about.

不，我很欣賞這個問題，我想我很高興我不得不說不，事實上，我們看到的是基礎廣泛的簡歷，對所有品牌的需求幾乎遍及整個產品組合。 監督是我們討論過的預訂趨勢。

The onboard spending on the onboard spending levels are our 7% up year over year on the set-top, I have my all my point. So unlike a more than the second quarter, so we are only 2.7% on where premiums were up 6.7% year over year, which is an acceleration versus the increase that we saw the second quarter versus the prior year.

船上支出水準是我們機上盒上年增 7%，我有我的全部觀點。 因此，與第二季的情況不同，保費年增 6.7%，我們的預測僅為 2.7%，這與我們看到的第二季與去年同期相比的增幅相比是加速的。

So all the things that you look at it is or is that demand profile unchanged or the state of the consumer changing? I can't speak to macroeconomics because there's a lot going on in the world. But at least what we have to offer, people are happy to have to pay and to participate. And we think that's a great thing.

那麼，您所看到的所有內容是需求狀況不變還是消費者的狀態改變了？ 我無法談論宏觀經濟學，因為世界上正在發生很多事情。 但至少我們所提供的東西，人們很樂意付費並參與。 我們認為這是一件很棒的事。

And we think that goes back to all the things that we've been talking about for the last two years about where we want to focus and make sure that we are doing a better and better job as time goes on.

我們認為這可以追溯到過去兩年我們一直在談論的所有事情，即我們想要關注的領域，並確保隨著時間的推移我們做得越來越好。

Perfect. And if I can, just as my follow-up, are you able to observe a record any trade down dynamics? Where are part of the demand you're seeing is a consumer who's unitary traded out of something else in two, the cruise vacation?

完美的。 如果可以的話，正如我的後續行動一樣，您是否能夠觀察到創紀錄的任何交易下跌動態？ 您所看到的需求的一部分是哪些消費者將郵輪假期一分為二？

No, nothing that we've seen that says that I mean, I think I think it's the opposite as we're doing a better job of convincing them of this is something they wanted to do that because there are trading down from something that they want to experience what we have to offer.

不，我們所看到的一切都表明我的意思是，我認為情況恰恰相反，因為我們正在更好地說服他們這是他們想做的事情，因為他們的交易有所下降想要體驗我們所提供的服務。

Okay. I apologize for the the the questions. My ratings. I think there are good questions. I would like to have a very fair. Congrats on the quarter.

好的。 我對這些問題表示歉意。 我的評分。 我認為有一些很好的問題。 我希望有一個非常公平的機會。 恭喜本季。

Jamie Katz, Morningstar.

傑米·卡茨，晨星。

Hi, good morning. I'm curious if you have any update on, I guess, the Chinese consumer. Is it trending as you would like Asia Pacific in general? I'm just because the data that's been coming out of the region has been a little bit lumpy, and it was obviously something that was pretty meaningful prior to the pandemic. Thanks.

嗨，早安。 我想知道您是否有關於中國消費者的最新情況。 整個亞太地區的趨勢是否符合您的預期？ 我只是因為來自該地區的數據有點不穩定，而這顯然在大流行之前是非常有意義的。 謝謝。

Yes, is it, Jamie? It wasn't done. It wasn't very meaningful for us prior to the pandemic and the grand scheme of things that was on a few percentage points of our capacity that was really dedicated to China. We have as I've been pretty pretty open about I'm ecstatic that its reopening to international cruising. I wanted to be very successful for our competitors, but it's not something that we're pursuing at this time and have not with respect to the region overall, when it comes to Japan, Taiwan and other reasons that's going that's going well. People like cruising with us before and they continue to enjoy in China.

是的，是嗎，傑米？ 事情還沒完成。 在疫情爆發之前，這對我們來說意義不大，而且我們的宏偉計劃只占我們真正致力於中國的產能的幾個百分點。 正如我一直相當公開的那樣，我對它重新開放國際巡航感到欣喜若狂。 我希望為我們的競爭對手取得非常成功，但這不是我們目前所追求的目標，也不是整個地區的目標，因為日本、台灣和其他進展順利的原因。 人們以前喜歡和我們一起航行，他們在中國繼續享受。

Yes. I'm just curious, there was any any movement with them, Vinod, without outbound travel more so than anything else? And as far as occupancy in the European brands, is there a little bit of room left And Matt, for upside or have has the gap sort of all back to historical norms, which is a range is not a number.

是的。 我只是很好奇，維諾德，他們有什麼動靜嗎？ 除了出境旅行之外什麼都沒有嗎？ 就歐洲品牌的佔有率而言，是否還有一點上升空間，或者是否有差距，全部回到歷史標準，這是一個範圍，而不是一個數字。

And I'd say all of our brands to varying degrees of the ability data and maybe just a little higher here and there, it's not going to be a big driver of our, you know, improvement. As we look forward. It's really going to be from driving price, which is where we're focused.

我想說的是，我們所有的品牌都有不同程度的能力數據，也許只是在這裡或那裡更高一點，這不會成為我們改進的主要推動力。 正如我們所期待的。 這實際上將來自於推動價格，這是我們關注的重點。

But there's but there's always an opportunity to make some tweaks and find some more occupancy. And I don't I don't think you guys had mentioned anything on any hurricane impacts, but any insight to that, the cost of that disruption, if you have, it would be helpful. Thanks.

但總有機會進行一些調整並找到更多的空間。 我不認為你們提到任何有關颶風影響的事情，但是對此有任何見解，這種破壞的成本，如果有的話，那將會有所幫助。 謝謝。

Yes, ours is a it's a significant compared to the impact it's having on the region. I wish first and foremost, we should we take a second to just think about. But putting putting a putting that aside a few million dollars in the second tier.

是的，與對該地區的影響相比，我們的影響非常重大。 首先，我希望我們應該花點時間思考。 但在第二梯隊中要留幾百萬美元。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Good morning, guys. Congratulations on a great quarter. Now just delving too. The few quick questions that I have occupancy still not fully caught up relative to fiscal 2019. Is that by itself already a yield opportunity?

早安，夥計們。 恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。 現在也只是鑽研。 相對於 2019 財年，我提出的幾個簡單問題仍然沒有完全趕上。

Yes. Like I said, we operate in a range for us for occupancy, and we are within our range, but there's certainly the opportunity to push that a little bit more. It's just not going to be the biggest driver of how we can improve the revenue picture going forward.

是的。 就像我說的，我們的入住率是在一個範圍內的，而且我們也在我們的範圍內，但肯定有機會進一步推動這一點。 它不會成為我們改善未來收入狀況的最大推動力。

Maybe a quick question for David and fuel costs seem to be a little bit on will quite a bit higher relative to what we were estimating because we track for one 83, 80 MGL. and could that possibly be related to shore power in the Baltics now with Denmark come in Germany, ports that are offering Shore Power, you know, Sweden, et cetera . And it is, is that part of the play there?

也許要問 David 一個簡單的問題，燃料成本似乎比我們估計的要高一些，因為我們追蹤一輛 83、80 MGL。這可能與波羅的海的岸電有關，現在丹麥來到了德國，提供岸電的港口，你知道，瑞典等等。 是的，這是戲劇的一部分嗎？

No, because some of our shore power when we buy it is actually not included in the fuel expenses included in none point expenses. And because we purchased it at Keno have support. So that would not have been at and what which means that would be great investor .

不會的，因為我們有些岸電我們購買的時候其實是沒有計入燃油費用的，屬於無點費用。 而且因為我們是在基諾購買的，所以有支持。 所以這不會是在這裡意味著這將是偉大的投資者。

I'm sorry to bother you on this. This went on in digital. And then my second question, given the acceleration in EBITDA generation and how far ahead deal with the sea change program, is it possible at this point to order a sister ship for 2027, 2020 delivery, whether it's for Princess brand or Carnival brand?

很抱歉在這件事上打擾你。 這在數位領域繼續發生。 然後我的第二個問題，考慮到 EBITDA 生成的加速以及應對巨變計劃的進度，目前是否有可能訂購一艘 2027 年、2020 年交付的姊妹船，無論是公主品牌還是嘉年華品牌？

No. We feel very good about about that. And as you know, we did order what we call Project base, which is the next generation for Carnival with that doesn't start until 2029. So the focus of all that EBITDA generation is really it's cash flow and we're going to use the headroom with a reduced capital expenditures to pay down debt. So in just in terms of the changes we're going after it has cost of debt, correct.

不，我們對此感覺非常好。 如您所知，我們確實訂購了所謂的項目基地，這是嘉年華的下一代項目，要到 2029 年才會開始。償還債務的淨空。 因此，就我們正在追求的債務成本變化而言，是正確的。

Well as long as he's got a good NPV if we want to pay down. So there's a lot of factors that we are glad that he's going to say. It's really a combination of three things that we looked at. One is the cost of the debt. And we do have to double digit hum issuances out there, both of the callable in 2025. So that should help our overall in on when we will look at refinancing those in the early part of next year.

好吧，只要他有良好的淨現值（NPV），如果我們想還款的話。 因此，我們很高興他會說出很多因素。 這其實是我們所研究的三件事的結合。 一是債務成本。 我們確實必須進行兩位數的嗡嗡聲發行，兩者都可以在 2025 年贖回。

We also look at the maturity towers will well set through 26 on maturity towers and very well-managed. But to towers 27, 28, Tom will be looking at refinancing some of that as well as looking at secured versus unsecured debt because our goal is to get to be completely unsecured, but we'll manage that over time as we move forward.

我們也關注成熟度塔將在 26 座成熟度塔上設置得很好，並且管理得很好。 但對於27、28 號塔樓，湯姆將考慮對其中一些進行再融資，並考慮有擔保債務與無擔保債務，因為我們的目標是完全無擔保，但隨著時間的推移，我們將在前進的過程中管理這一點。

And David, that was basically my question, you know, has cost versus the secured towers. So it's a balancing act. I imagined, correct. All right. In the lastly, if I may ask somebody's encroaching on your Galveston, Texas port and terminal there on what do you think about that?

大衛，這基本上是我的問題，你知道，成本與安全塔的比較。 所以這是一個平衡的行為。 我想像的，沒錯。 好的。 最後，如果我可以問一下有人侵犯了你們位於德克薩斯州加爾維斯頓的港口和碼頭，你們對此有何看法？

They already have a presence, Miami and are doing Port Canaveral, et cetera. And the competitor who do not have to report to us from our IC. or other metrics. How do you feel about sort of the what I call the encroachment? I don't think about it as an encroachment. We are 2% of the overall vacation market.

他們已經在邁阿密和卡納維爾港等地開展業務。 而競爭對手則不必透過我們的 IC 向我們報告。或其他指標。 你對我所說的侵犯有何看法？ 我不認為這是一種侵犯。 我們佔整個度假市場的 2%。

And if it's the company, I think you're talking about it's a small part of the overall cruise market growing, but small and so does the demand profile as long as we do our jobs with our world-class portfolio of brands will because you also are you in the upper end of that 1%.

如果是公司，我想你說的是整個郵輪市場成長的一小部分，但規模很小，只要我們用我們的世界級品牌組合做好我們的工作，需求就會增加，因為你也屬於那1% 的上端嗎？

Dan Politzer, Wells Fargo.

丹‧波利策，富國銀行。

Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. Josh, I do want to follow up on the fourth quarter yield comment. I know you mentioned that there really wasn't much if any actually any change to your prior guide. But as we think about the third quarter came in better data, better close-in demand and onboard driving the B and is there any reason that wouldn't be in the cards for the fourth quarter? Are there near term demand, hiccups or noise, whether the new cycle or lucky in that community driving additional conservatism?

嘿，大家早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。 喬希，我確實想跟進第四季度的收益率評論。 我知道您提到您之前的指南實際上並沒有太大的變化（如果有的話）。 但當我們想到第三季出現了更好的數據、更好的近期需求以及對 B 的推動時，有什麼理由不會出現在第四季呢？ 近期是否存在需求、問題或噪音，無論是新周期還是幸運的社區推動了更多的保守主義？

Look, which we tried to give you our best estimate of what's going to happen. We've always tried to outperform absolutely know that that's the goal. There is nothing in particular about the fourth quarter, other than what you said. I mean, the next month, a lot of attention is going to be focused on, but in others. So and we expect a lot of ourselves and also keep in mind with 99% of the ticket revenue for the gear already on the books.

看，我們試圖為您提供將要發生的情況的最佳估計。 我們一直在努力超越，絕對知道這就是我們的目標。 除了你說的以外，第四季沒有什麼特別的。 我的意思是，下個月，很多注意力將集中在其他方面。 因此，我們對自己抱有很高的期望，同時也牢記 99% 的門票收入已經記錄在案。

There's not a lot left to sell now. Right. No, that makes sense.

現在可賣的已經不多了。 正確的。 不，這是有道理的。

And then for my follow-up on in a couple of weeks, you're hosting some investors and board some friends as any way to kind of think about maybe frame marketing and maybe kind of the key topics we should focus on. It seems like there's a lot of progress on our SeaChange celebration. Key. Maybe some of these cost opportunities or savings from eating inflation.

然後，在我幾週後的後續行動中，您將接待一些投資者並邀請一些朋友，以任何方式思考框架行銷以及我們應該關注的關鍵主題。 我們的 SeaChange 慶祝活動似乎取得了巨大進展。 鑰匙。 也許其中一些會損失機會或因通貨膨脹而節省開支。

But what are the kind of the key high high level focus points we should be thinking about things. It's been spent about 15 months since since we got together for the first time to come to to talk about what our priorities were and announced a change.

但我們應該考慮哪些關鍵的高層焦點？ 自從我們第一次聚在一起討論我們的優先事項並宣布改變以來，已經過去了大約 15 個月。

And I think it's a good opportunity for us to just kind of level set on where we are in everything and the whole home, as you see it the way we thought, which is the progress that we're making across the board, we also get an opportunity to showcase the Princess brand and specifically the San Francisco, which is just a true game changer for Princess.

我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，可以為我們在所有事情和整個家庭中所處的位置設定一個水平，正如你所看到的我們所想的那樣，這是我們全面取得的進展，我們也有機會展示公主品牌，特別是舊金山，這對公主來說是一個真正的遊戲規則改變者。

And I'd say for the premium market choose a remarkable ship and the team on board does a remarkable job. And you also get an opportunity not just to hear from me, but you'll hear And David, but you'll be able to hear from the President of that brand and to actually meet the president's have pretty much all of our brands will be there with us.

我想說，對於高端市場，選擇一艘出色的船舶，船上的團隊做得非常出色。 您不僅有機會聽到我的聲音，而且您還會聽到大衛的聲音，而且您將能夠聽到該品牌總裁的聲音，並真正與總統會面，幾乎我們所有的品牌都會和我們在一起。

So good opportunity for you to get a little bit more on educating inundated by all things, Carnival Corporation.

嘉年華公司，這對你來說是一個很好的機會，讓你在被一切淹沒的教育中得到更多的教育。

Chris Stathoulopoulos, SIG.

克里斯·斯塔索洛普洛斯 (Chris Stathoulopoulos)，SIG。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So Josh, I'm going to ask the demand question here in a different way is we think about global travel and tourism and thinking about different segments, if you will, within the ecosystem.

早安. 感謝您提出我的問題。 所以喬希，我將以不同的方式問需求問題，我們考慮全球旅行和旅遊業，並考慮生態系統內的不同部分（如果你願意的話）。

So lodging airlines hearing, you know, it is sort of a different dynamic here. Is we think about demand, certainly within lodging, lower to middle income, consumer, some concerns around price sensitivity, little bit of a mixed bag. What feels like this sort of persistent demand and just kind of ongoing momentum, if you will know, I was wondering if you could rank order and then think about the moving pieces as to the one place.

因此，住宿航空公司聽到，你知道，這是一種不同的動態。 我們是否考慮需求，當然是在住宿、中低收入、消費者方面，以及對價格敏感性的一些擔憂，有點魚龍混雜。 這種持續的需求和持續的動力是什麼感覺，如果你知道的話，我想知道你是否可以排列順序，然後考慮到一個地方的移動部分。

So there's the new to cruise piece, I would say, perhaps later reopening of certain markets, strong US dollar discount to land-based trips baseload. And just get if you could help us provide help provide some context as we think about the moving parts of demand here and there's still some debate around whether this is any pent-up demand here, which I think is just not the case or what action we know it is this actual baseload going forward? Thanks.

因此，我想說的是，郵輪領域出現了新的變化，也許稍後某些市場重新開放，美元對陸上旅行基荷的大幅折扣。 當我們考慮這裡需求的變化部分時，如果你能幫助我們提供幫助，提供一些背景信息，關於這是否是任何被壓抑的需求，仍然存在一些爭論，我認為情況並非如此，或者採取什麼行動我們知道這是未來的實際基本負載嗎？ 謝謝。

But I guess the most affirmative thing I'll say is I completely agree with you. It's not pent-up demand anymore. And we've been selling for over three years now. So I think that that is that has come and gone a I'm not going to I'm not I'm not going to answer your question by rank ordering, but I would say that when it comes to all of the industry, I think we're all doing a pretty good job of that demand generation and creation and getting awareness, getting people interested in cruise and growing.

但我想我要說的最肯定的話就是我完全同意你的觀點。 這不再是被壓抑的需求。 我們的銷售已經三年多了。 所以我認為這種情況已經過去了，我不會，我不會，我不會按排名順序回答你的問題，但我想說，當涉及到整個行業時，我認為我們在需求產生和創造以及提高意識、讓人們對郵輪感興趣並成長方面都做得很好。

Maybe I've never thought about it before. With respect to us, there's a lot of activity going on at all of our brands are really just trying to do better and better at blocking and tackling when it comes to the commercial operations are generating new creative, generating more eyeballs are in performance marketing, looking looking looking for and then being looked at by the rate by the write-down, potential customer, driving people to our trade partners, driving people to our websites are doing everything we can to just get the word out and get them interest.

也許我以前從來沒有想過這個問題。 就我們而言，我們所有的品牌都在進行很多活動，實際上只是試圖在商業運營方面做得越來越好，正在產生新的創意，在績效營銷中產生更多的眼球，尋找潛在客戶，然後透過減記率來查看，吸引人們到我們的貿易夥伴，吸引人們到我們的網站，我們正在盡一切努力來宣傳並引起他們的興趣。

And I think that's part of what's driving us in a pretty significant way.

我認為這是推動我們前進的重要原因之一。

Okay. And then as my follow-up, David, so my math here, I have about a point in the quarter, the adjusted NCC's for next year, and we can come up with our own assumptions, as you said, on inflation, because we think about the other moving pieces here puts and takes on the advertising side. I know I think it's a that it's expected to be elevated in 4Q. Is there a reason or how should we think about next year? And do we need this mobile advertising per ALBD to continue is a part of the base load book plan? Or can we expect that to sort of gets softer, if you will, that initiative continues to take hold?

好的。 然後，作為我的跟進者，大衛，我在這裡進行數學計算，我大約有本季度的一個點，即明年調整後的NCC，我們可以提出我們自己的假設，正如您所說，關於通貨膨脹，因為我們想想這裡在廣告方面的其他動人的部分。 我知道我認為預計第四季會有所提高。 有什麼原因嗎？ 我們是否需要將每個 ALBD 的行動廣告作為基本負載預訂計劃的一部分繼續進行？ 或者我們可以期望這種情況會變得更加溫和，如果你願意的話，這項舉措會繼續發揮作用？

Thanks. Yes. So the advertising, as well as many other decisions are things that we really need to talk about over the next month or two in the planning process, which were in the in the midst of doing. And we'll give guidance in December relative to the all of those items. It would be premature for us to be making a decision today exactly what we want to do, particularly for next summer or the back half of next year and advertising.

謝謝。 是的。 因此，廣告以及許多其他決定是我們真正需要在接下來的一兩個月的規劃過程中討論的事情，這些決定正在進行中。 我們將在 12 月針對所有這些項目提供指導。 對我們來說，今天做出我們想要做什麼的決定還為時過早，尤其是明年夏天或明年下半年的廣告。

So we'll give you more insight into that in the three months. I just had a couple of things. one is remember we just talked about a record-setting 2026 booking period. So we're not just you know, we're not just booking for the short term. We're looking for the long term. And advertising is a combination of D&O, you know, getting people to consider things for the longer term and getting the ships filled as we need to in the shorter term.

因此，我們將在三個月內讓您更深入地了解這一點。 我只是有幾件事。 一是記得我們剛剛談到了創紀錄的 2026 年預訂期。 所以我們不只是你知道的，我們不只是短期預訂。 我們正在尋找長期的。 你知道，廣告是 D&O 的結合，讓人們從長遠考慮事情，並在短期內根據我們的需要裝滿船隻。

So um, so the metric of just looking at it on an AOBD. basis is to sign or and smart 19 couple of percent higher year over year are still quite a bit lower than most, if not everyone. So we'll continue to be thoughtful about it and do what we think we need to do to drive the business. I think we've got time for one more. Yes. Thank you. I think we've got time for one more if there are anymore outgrew thinking.

所以嗯，所以只是在 AOBD 上查看它的指標。基礎是簽署或和智能 19 幾個百分點比去年同期高，但仍然比大多數人（如果不是所有人）低很多。 因此，我們將繼續深思熟慮，並做我們認為需要做的事情來推動業務發展。 我想我們還有時間再談一談。 是的。 謝謝。 我想，如果還有多餘的想法，我們還有時間再討論一次。

Fred Wightman, Wolfe Research.

弗雷德‧懷特曼，沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks for your steepness in. I just wanted to come back to new-to-cruise, Josh, I think you said that was up 17% this quarter. Last quarter that was up 10%. So it's a pretty big acceleration. Core brands such as big as you guys are key touch on what drove it? Was it was there a reallocation of some of the ad spend and maybe how you think strategically that could sort of increase that penetration staff from 2% or something larger as a percentage of total vacation sense?

感謝您的積極參與。 上季成長了 10%。 所以這是一個相當大的加速度。 像你們這樣的大品牌是推動它發展的關鍵因素嗎？ 是否對部分廣告支出進行了重新分配，或者您如何從策略角度思考，可以將滲透員工的比例從 2% 或更大的比例增加到總假期意識的百分比？

Thanks. Yes. So there's no there's no one thing that's going to be the answer for driving new-to-cruise either is that same combination of better advertising, the trade, doing a great job, better usability of our of our websites. I'd say Alaska, in particular for this, this past year's was off the charts, absolutely phenomenal. And that tends to skew hired a new to cruise because if you're going to go see Alaska, which everybody should go do the only way you can go see it is by a cruise ship to really appreciate it.

謝謝。 是的。 因此，沒有任何一件事能夠成為推動郵輪新手的答案，就是更好的廣告、貿易、出色的工作以及我們網站的更好可用性的相同組合。 我想說阿拉斯加，特別是在這一點上，去年的表現超乎尋常，絕對是現象級的。 這往往會影響新租的遊輪，因為如果你要去阿拉斯加，每個人都應該去，唯一的方法就是乘坐遊輪來真正欣賞它。

And the only way you should do that is by one of our brands because they do it amazingly and we have more permits for Glacier Bay than anybody else. And we have the shoreside footprint there. Nobody else has in Congress, okay? So that has served us very, very well. And I'd say it's the same things that you've heard me talk about in the past quarters. And hopefully we'll continue to talk about in the quarters to come about just doing the basics better.

您應該做到這一點的唯一方法是使用我們的品牌之一，因為他們做得非常出色，而且我們比其他任何人都擁有更多的冰川灣許可證。 我們在那裡有岸邊的足跡。 國會裡沒有其他人了，好嗎？ 所以這對我們非常非常有幫助。 我想說這與你在過去幾個季度聽到我談論的事情是一樣的。 希望我們能在接下來的幾季繼續討論如何更好地做好基礎工作。

Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us and look forward to talking again in a few months. For those of you that I don't see next week, ticker.

好的，謝謝大家加入我們，並期待幾個月後再次交談。 對於那些我下週看不到的人，請打勾。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。 今天的電話會議到此結束。 此時您可以斷開線路。 感謝您的參與。