2024年第三季財報電話會議凸顯了該公司強勁的財務業績,營收、EBITDA和淨利潤均超乎預期。由於 2025 年和 2026 年的需求和定價強勁,該公司預計今年將實現創紀錄的 EBITDA 和 ROIC。
2025 年的計畫包括增加運能和新目的地,重點是最大化收入和節省成本。該公司對實現目標和吸引新客戶充滿信心,並專注於商業執行和提供卓越的船上體驗。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation plc third-quarter 2024 earnings call.
您好,歡迎參加嘉年華公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
(操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.
現在我想將電話轉給主持人投資者關係高級副總裁貝絲·羅伯茨 (Beth Roberts)。
Thank you.
謝謝。
You may begin.
你可以開始了。
Beth Roberts - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations
Beth Roberts - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you.
謝謝。
Good morning, and welcome to our third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
早上好,歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。
I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein, our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison.
今天我們的執行長喬許溫斯坦 (Josh Weinstein)、財務長大衛伯恩斯坦 (David Bernstein) 也加入了我的行列。還有我們的主席米基·阿里森。
Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking.
在我們開始之前,請注意,我們在本次電話會議上的一些評論將具有前瞻性。
Therefore, I will refer you to the forward-looking statement in today's press release.
因此,我將向您推薦今天新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明。
All references to ticket prices, net per diems, net yields and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated.
除非另有說明,所有提及的票價、每日淨津貼、淨收益和調整後不含燃料的遊輪成本均採用固定匯率。
References to per diems and yields will be on a net basis.
每日津貼和收益率的參考將基於淨值。
Our comments may also reference cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, free cash flow, and ROIC, all of which will be on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise stated.
我們的評論也可能參考不含燃油的遊輪成本、EBITDA、淨利潤、自由現金流和ROIC,除非另有說明,所有這些都將在調整後的基礎上進行。
A
一個
ll these references are non-GAAP financial measures defined in our earnings press release, a reconciliation to the most directly comparable US GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are also contained in our earnings press release and in our investor presentation.
所有這些參考資料都是我們的收益新聞稿中定義的非公認會計原則財務指標,與最直接可比較的美國公認會計原則財務指標的調節以及其他相關披露也包含在我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹中。
Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.
請造訪我們的公司網站,在那裡可以找到我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.
有了這個,我想把電話轉給喬希。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Thanks, Beth.
謝謝,貝絲。
Before I begin, I'd like to express my support and heartfelt sympathy for all those impacted by Hurricane Helene this pathway.
在開始之前,我謹向所有受颶風海倫影響的人們表達支持和衷心同情。
Our thoughts and prayers are with you.
我們的思念和祈禱與你們同在。
With that, I'll turn to our prepared remarks.
接下來,我將談談我們準備好的演講。
As September comes to an end and we closed out the year, I am happy to report that we are delivering well in excess of 2024 expectations.
隨著 9 月即將結束,我們結束了這一年,我很高興地向大家報告,我們的業績遠遠超出了 2024 年的預期。
We've also built an even stronger base of business for 2025, and we're off to an unprecedented start to 2026.
我們也為 2025 年建立了更強大的業務基礎,並在 2026 年迎來了前所未有的開局。
Our third quarter by all accounts was phenomenal, breaking multiple records and outperforming on every measure.
從各方面來看,我們的第三季都表現出色,打破了多項記錄,並且在每項指標上都表現出色。
Revenue hit an all-time high of almost $8 billion, a $1 billion more than last year's record level.
收入創下近 80 億美元的歷史新高,比去年的創紀錄水平高出 10 億美元。
Record EBITDA exceeded $2.8 billion, up $600 million over last year and $160 million over guidance, and we delivered over 60% more net income than the year prior, achieving double-digit ROIC as of the end of our third quarter.
EBITDA 創歷史新高,超過28 億美元,比去年增加6 億美元,比指導值高出1.6 億美元,我們的淨利潤比去年增加了60% 以上,截至第三季末實現了兩位數的ROIC 。
These improvements were driven by high-margin same-ship yield growth across all major brands, not driven by capacity growth.
這些改善是由所有主要品牌的高利潤同船產量成長所推動的,而不是由運力成長所推動的。
And it resulted in EBITDA and operating income on a unit basis of 20% and 26%, respectively to levels we've not seen in the last 15 years.
其單位 EBITDA 和營業收入分別達到 20% 和 26%,達到過去 15 年來從未見過的水平。
Strong demand enabled us to increase our full-year yield guidance for the third time this year.
強勁的需求使我們今年第三次提高了全年收益率指引。
And consistent with our historical emphasis on efficiency, we also improved our cost guidance, which enabled us to drive more revenue to the bottom line with around 99% of our 2024 ticket revenue already on the books were poised to deliver record EBITDA of $6 billion, almost $600 million above our prior peak and $400 million above the original guidance we set in December.
與我們歷來對效率的重視相一致,我們還改進了成本指導,這使我們能夠將更多收入推向底線,我們2024 年門票收入的約99% 已記入賬面,有望實現創紀錄的60 億美元EBITDA,比之前的峰值高出近 6 億美元,比我們 12 月設定的原始指導值高出 4 億美元。
ROIC is expected to end the year at 10.5%, 1.5 points better than our original December guidance and almost double last year's ending point.
今年底投資報酬率為 10.5%,比我們最初 12 月的指導值高出 1.5 個百分點,幾乎是去年年底的兩倍。
Looking forward, the momentum continues as we actively manage the demand for at this point in time, 2025 is a historical highs on both occupancy and price.
展望未來,隨著我們積極管理需求,這股動能將持續下去,2025 年入住率和價格都將創歷史新高。
All core deployments are at higher prices than the prior year.
所有核心部署的價格均高於前一年。
Every brand in our portfolio is well booked at higher pricing in 2025, demonstrating the ongoing benefit of our demand generation efforts throughout our optimized portfolio.
我們產品組合中的每個品牌在 2025 年都以更高的價格被預訂一空,這證明了我們在整個優化的產品組合中創造需求的努力所帶來的持續效益。
Our baseloading strategy is continuing to work well, allowing us to take price, thanks to having pulled ahead on occupancy.
我們的基本裝載策略繼續運作良好,使我們能夠接受價格,這要歸功於入住率的提高。
In fact, in the last few months, our 2025 booked positions price advantage versus last year has actually widened for the full year and for each quarter individually.
事實上,在過去的幾個月裡,我們的 2025 年預訂部位相對於去年的價格優勢實際上在全年和每季都有所擴大。
And with nearly half of 2025 already booked, we feel confident in maintaining our trajectory.
由於 2025 年近一半的時間已被預訂,我們對保持我們的發展軌跡充滿信心。
While early days, the benefit of our enhanced commercial performance is carrying nicely into 2026 as we just achieved record booking volumes in the last three months for sailings at RF.
雖然處於早期階段,但我們增強的商業業績所帶來的好處將很好地延續到 2026 年,因為我們在過去三個月中剛剛在 RF 航線上實現了創紀錄的預訂量。
This incredibly strong book position for 2024, 2025, and 2026 drove record third quarter customer deposits towards $7 billion, and that's along with continued growth in pre-cruise purchases of onboard revenue.
2024 年、2025 年和 2026 年的帳面狀況令人難以置信,推動第三季客戶存款達到創紀錄的 70 億美元,同時郵輪前購買的船上收入也持續成長。
It's also gratifying to note the onboard spending levels were not only up strong again this quarter.
令人欣慰的是,本季船上支出水準不僅再次強勁成長。
Our year-over-year improvement in onboard redeems actually accelerated from the prior quarter.
事實上,我們的機上兌換年增率比上一季有所加快。
In essence, all demand indicators are continuing to move in the right direction.
本質上,所有需求指標都在繼續朝著正確的方向發展。
And we have so much more in the pipeline to sustain this momentum, including the North American premier of the highly successful Sun Princess in just a few weeks.
為了維持這一勢頭,我們還有很多事情要做,包括在短短幾週內就獲得高度成功的《太陽公主》的北美首映。
This will be followed by the introduction of her sister ship, Star Princess, the second next-generation Princess ship coming online in a year.
隨後將推出她的姊妹船“星際公主”,這是一年內上線的第二艘下一代公主船。
We also continue to invest in the existing fleet with major modernization programs like AIDA evolution expected to deliver additional revenue uplift over the coming years.
我們也繼續投資現有機隊,實施 AIDA進化等重大現代化計劃,預計將在未來幾年帶來額外的收入成長。
As you know, we're not just going to be buoyed by our ship.
如您所知,我們不僅僅依靠我們的船來支撐。
I can't wait for the introduction of our game-changing Bahamian destination, Celebration Key.
我迫不及待地想介紹我們改變遊戲規則的巴哈馬目的地——慶典島。
Its five portals built for fun were open in July 2025, but it really ramps up in 2026 when Celebration Key serves as a premium call for 19 Carnival Cruise Line Ships and rest assured, we're already planning for our Phase II land side development to fully leverage the use of the four berths we're building.
它為娛樂而建造的五個門戶已於2025 年7 月開放,但到2026 年,當Celebration Key 作為19 艘嘉年華遊輪的高級召喚時,它的規模才真正得到提升。二期陸側開發,以便充分利用我們正在建造的四個泊位。
In 2026, there's also the midyear introduction of a two-berth pier at Half Moon Cay, are naturally beautiful and pristine Beach consistently rated among the top private islands in the Caribbean.
2026 年,半月島還將在年中推出一個兩個泊位的碼頭,這裡自然美麗、原始的海灘一直被評為加勒比地區頂級私人島嶼。
These two destinations will be available to even our largest ships, further reducing fuel costs and our environmental footprint at the same time.
即使是我們最大的船舶也可以到達這兩個目的地,同時進一步降低燃料成本和我們的環境足跡。
Stay tuned as we'll be sharing more exciting reveals about Half Moon Cay in the next few months.
請繼續關注,我們將在接下來的幾個月內分享更多有關半月礁的精彩揭秘。
We're also stepping up our marketing efforts in the fourth quarter, which David will touch on.
我們也將在第四季加大行銷力度,大衛將談到這一點。
Our elevated marketing investment has been working as we continue to drive demand well in excess of our capacity growth with year-to-date web visits up over 40% versus 2019, paid search, up more than 60% and natural search up over 70%.
我們增加的營銷投資一直在發揮作用,因為我們繼續推動需求遠遠超過我們的容量增長,今年迄今為止的網絡訪問量比2019 年增長了40% 以上,付費搜索增長了60% 以上,自然搜索增長了70% 以上。
Our brands are iterating on under creative marketing and constantly finding ways to attract more attention to the amazing product and execution we already deliver our book, and it is continuing to pay off as we chip away at the unwarranted price disparity to land-based vacations.
我們的品牌在創意行銷下不斷迭代,並不斷尋找方法來吸引更多人關注我們已經交付的令人驚嘆的產品和執行力,並且隨著我們縮小與陸地度假毫無根據的價格差距,它正在繼續獲得回報。
All of these activities, along with strong support from our travel agent partners, have allowed us to once again take share from land-based peers as we attract even more new-to-cruise guests.
所有這些活動,加上旅行社合作夥伴的大力支持,使我們能夠再次從陸上同行手中奪取份額,吸引更多新遊輪客人。
In fact, both new-to-cruise and [guests] were up double-digit percentages over last year.
事實上,新遊輪遊客和[遊客]都比去年增長了兩位數百分比。
Now turning to our balance sheet.
現在轉向我們的資產負債表。
We expect to continue on our path towards investment grade and have a clear line of sight for further debt paydown, having recently finalized our order book through 2028.
我們最近敲定了截至 2028 年的訂單,預計將繼續邁向投資等級的道路,並對進一步償還債務有清晰的願景。
We have just three ships spread over the next four years.
在接下來的四年裡,我們只有三艘船。
That's one ship delivery in 2025, one in 2026, and one ship in each of 2027 and 2028.
預計2025年交付一艘,2026年交付一艘,2027年及2028年各交付一艘。
This limited order book should also position us well to continue to create demand in excess of capacity growth.
這種有限的訂單也應該使我們能夠繼續創造超過產能成長的需求。
Our continued focus on high-margin same-ship yield growth should deliver improving EBITDA off of this year's record levels.
我們繼續關注高利潤率的同船收益率成長,應該會帶來今年創紀錄水準的 EBITDA 改善。
Of course, strong and growing free cash flow and further debt reductions provide a consistent formula for ongoing improvement in our leverage metrics and a continuation in the trajectory we have experienced already this year, resulting in a two-turn improvement in debt to EBITDA in just nine months.
當然,強勁且不斷增長的自由現金流以及進一步的債務削減為我們槓桿指標的持續改善以及我們今年已經經歷的軌蹟的延續提供了一致的公式,導致債務與EBITDA 的比率在短短幾年內實現了兩輪改善。
We have certainly come a long way in a relatively short amount of time.
我們確實在相對較短的時間內取得了長足的進步。
In just two years, we've already boarded doubled our revenue and are going from negative EBITDA to an expected all-time high of $6 billion this year.
在短短兩年內,我們的營收就已經翻了一番,今年的 EBITDA 也從負值上升到 60 億美元的預期歷史新高。
This remarkable achievement is all thanks to our global team.
這項非凡的成就歸功於我們的全球團隊。
They continue to outperform as we progress through 2024 and they are also setting us up for a successful 2025.
隨著我們在 2024 年取得進展,他們將繼續表現出色,並為我們在 2025 年取得成功做好準備。
It is their continued execution that has put us firmly on the path to achieving our sea change targets.
正是他們的持續執行使我們堅定地走上實現巨變目標的道路。
And just as important, they once again powered our ability to deliver unforgettable happiness to nearly 4 million guests this [past port] by providing them with extraordinary free vacations while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sail, places we visit, and life we touch.
同樣重要的是,他們再次增強了我們為這個[過去的港口]近400 萬客人提供難忘幸福的能力,為他們提供非凡的免費假期,同時尊重我們航行的每一個海洋、我們參觀的地方和我們接觸的生活的完整性。
With that, I'll turn the call over to David.
這樣,我就把電話轉給大衛。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Thank you, Josh.
謝謝你,喬許。
I'll start today with a summary of our 2024 third-quarter results.
今天我將先總結我們 2024 年第三季的業績。
Next, I will provide the highlights of our fourth quarter September guidance.
接下來,我將提供我們第四季 9 月指導的重點內容。
Some color on our improved full-year guidance along with a few other things to consider for 2025.
我們改進了全年指引,以及 2025 年需要考慮的其他一些事項。
Then I'll finish up with an update on our refinancing and deleveraging efforts.
最後,我將介紹我們的再融資和去槓桿化工作的最新情況。
Let's turn to the summary of our third quarter results.
讓我們來總結一下第三季的業績。
Net income exceeded June guidance by $170 million as we outperformed once again.
淨利潤超出 6 月指導值 1.7 億美元,我們的業績再次跑贏大盤。
The outperformance was essentially driven by two things.
表現出色主要是由兩件事驅動的。
First, favorability in revenue were $40 million as yields came in up 8.7% compared to the prior year.
首先,收益為 4,000 萬美元,收益率比上年增長 8.7%。
This was 0.7 point better than June guidance driven by close-in strength in ticket prices as well as onboard and other spending.
由於機票價格以及船上和其他支出的接近走強,這比 6 月的指引高出 0.7 個百分點。
Second, cruise costs without fuel for available lower berth day or ALBD, improved slightly compared to the prior year and were nearly 5 percentage points better than June guidance, which was worth over $125 million.
其次,可用下舖日或 ALBD 的無燃油遊輪成本與前一年相比略有改善,並且比 6 月份指導值(價值超過 1.25 億美元)高出近 5 個百分點。
The third quarter benefited from cost-saving opportunities, accelerated easing of inflationary pressures, benefits from onetime items and the timing of expenses between the quarters.
第三季受益於節省成本的機會、通膨壓力的加速緩解、一次性專案的好處以及各季度之間的支出時間表。
Most of the third quarter cruise cost benefits will flow through as an improvement to our full year September guidance.
第三季郵輪成本收益的大部分將作為我們九月全年指導的改進而體現。
Per diems for the third quarter improved at least 6% versus the prior year driven by higher ticket prices and improved onboard spending on both sides of the Atlantic.
由於票價上漲和大西洋兩岸的船上支出增加,第三季的每日津貼比去年同期增加了至少 6%。
At the same time, our European brands on the path back to higher occupancy levels saw outsized growth in occupancy of 5 percentage points as compared to the third quarter of 2023.
同時,我們的歐洲品牌在回歸更高入住率水準的道路上,與 2023 年第三季相比,入住率大幅增加了 5 個百分點。
For the third quarter, we reported record-setting operating results with strong demand, delivering record revenues, record yields, record prelims and record operating income.
第三季度,我們報告了創紀錄的營運業績,需求強勁,實現了創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的收益率、創紀錄的預付款和創紀錄的營業收入。
Now two things to highlight about our fourth-quarter September guidance.
現在,關於我們第四季 9 月的指導,有兩點需要強調。
The positive trends we saw in the third quarter are expected to continue in the fourth.
我們在第三季度看到的積極趨勢預計將在第四季度繼續下去。
The yield guidance growth for the fourth quarter is set at 5% over the prior year.
第四季的收益率指導成長率設定為較上年同期成長 5%。
The difference between the yield guidance for the fourth quarter and the third quarter yield improvement of 8.7% is the result of a tougher prior year comparison as fourth quarter 2023 pre-diems were up over 10% versus just 5% for the third quarter of 2023.
第四季的收益率指引與第三季收益率提高8.7% 之間的差異是上一年比較的結果,因為2023 年第四季的預津貼上漲了10% 以上,而2023 年第三季僅為5% 。
Having said that, it is great to see that we anticipate continued strong yield growth in the fourth quarter and that it is driven primarily by price.
話雖如此,我們很高興看到第四季度的收益率將持續強勁成長,而且成長主要是由價格驅動的。
Cruise cost without fuel per available lower berth day for the fourth quarter are expected to be up 8% like first quarter of 2024, which was up 7.3%.
第四季每個可用下舖位日不含燃油的遊輪成本預計將比 2024 年第一季上漲 8%,較 2024 年第一季上漲 7.3%。
Both quarters are impacted by higher dry dock days and higher advertising expenses planned, and we did have about $25 million of anticipated third quarter costs shift to the fourth quarter.
這兩個季度都受到乾船塢天數增加和計劃廣告費用增加的影響,我們確實將大約 2500 萬美元的預期第三季度成本轉移到了第四季度。
As I have said many times, relative to cruise cost per ALBD judge us on the full year and not the quarters as we often see certain cost items like dry dock expense, advertising and other items have different seasonalization between the quarters from year to year. 2024 is a great example of this, where cruise costs without fuel per ALBD were up 7.3% in the first quarter, essentially flat in the second quarter, improved slightly in the third quarter and are expected to be up approximately 8% in the fourth quarter.
正如我多次說過的,相對於每ALBD 的郵輪成本,我們對全年而不是季度進行判斷,因為我們經常看到某些成本項目,如乾船塢費用、廣告和其他項目,每年各季度之間有不同的季節性。 2024 年就是一個很好的例子,第一季不含燃料的郵輪成本每 ALBD 上漲 7.3%,第二季基本上持平,第三季略有改善,預計第四季將上漲約 8% 。
Turning to our improved full-year September guidance.
轉向我們改進的 9 月份全年指引。
Net income for September guidance is set at $1.76 billion, a $210 million improvement over our June guidance.
9 月淨利指引定為 17.6 億美元,比 6 月指引提高了 2.1 億美元。
This improvement was driven by three things.
這項改進是由三件事推動的。
First, an improvement in yields to 10.4% by flowing through the $40 million revenue benefit from the third quarter.
首先,透過第三季 4,000 萬美元的營收收益,收益率提高至 10.4%。
Second, a 1 point improvement in cruise cost per ALBD to approximately 3.5% from flowing through $100 million of the $125 million cost benefit from the third quarter with $25 million reseasonalize to the fourth quarter, as I previously mentioned.
其次,正如我之前提到的,每個 ALBD 的郵輪成本從第三季 1.25 億美元成本效益中的 1 億美元減少了 1 個百分點,達到約 3.5%,第四季重新調整了 2,500 萬美元。
And third, a benefit from fuel price and currency were $70 million.
第三,燃油價格和貨幣帶來的收益為 7,000 萬美元。
The strong 10.4% improvement in 2024 yields is a result of the increase in all the component parts, higher ticket prices, higher onboard spending, and higher occupancy at historical levels, with all three components improving on both sides of these landing.
2024 年收益率強勁增長 10.4%,是由於所有組成部分的增長、票價上漲、機上支出增加以及歷史水平的入住率上升,所有三個組成部分在著陸兩側都有所改善。
Now a few things for you to consider for 2025.
現在您需要考慮 2025 年的一些事項。
We are forecasting a capacity increase of just 0.007% compared to 2024.
我們預計與 2024 年相比,產能僅成長 0.007%。
We are well positioned to drive 2025 pricing higher with less inventory remaining to sell than the same time last year.
我們處於有利位置,可以推動 2025 年定價上漲,且剩餘待售庫存比去年同期減少。
We are also looking forward to the introduction of our game-changing Bahamaian destination Celebration Key in July 2025.
我們也期待於 2025 年 7 月推出改變遊戲規則的巴哈馬目的地 Celebration Key。
We anticipate that Celebration Key will be a smash hit with our guests and provided excellent return on our investment.
我們預計 Celebration Key 將受到我們的客人的熱烈歡迎,並為我們的投資帶來豐厚的回報。
However, we do expect that the operating expenses for the destination will impact our overall year-over-year cost comparisons by about 0.5 point.
然而,我們確實預計該目的地的營運費用將影響我們的整體年比成本比較約 0.5 個百分點。
In 2025, we are expecting 688 dry dock days, an increase of 17% versus 2024, which will also impact our overall year-over-year cost comparison by about 0.75 point.
2025 年,我們預計乾船塢天數為 688 天,比 2024 年增加 17%,也將影響我們的整體年比成本比較約 0.75 個百分點。
I will finish up with a summary of our refinancing and deleveraging efforts.
最後我將總結我們的再融資和去槓桿化努力。
With record third-quarter EBITDA of $2.8 billion, our efforts to proactively manage our debt profile continue.
第三季 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 28 億美元,我們將繼續努力主動管理我們的債務狀況。
Since June, we prepaid another $625 million of debt bringing our total prepayments to $7.3 billion since the beginning of 2023.
自 6 月以來,我們又預付了 6.25 億美元的債務,使自 2023 年初以來的預付款總額達到 73 億美元。
Additionally, we successfully upsized the borrowing capacity on our revolving credit facility by nearly $500 million, bringing the total undrawn commitment to $3 billion back to its 2019 level.
此外,我們成功地將循環信貸額度的借款能力增加了近 5 億美元,使未提取承諾總額達到 30 億美元,回到 2019 年的水準。
Furthermore, we will continue to look for more opportunistic refinancings over time.
此外,隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續尋找更多機會主義的再融資。
Our leverage metrics will continue to improve in 2024 as our EBITDA continues to grow, and our debt levels improve.
隨著 EBITDA 的持續成長和債務水準的改善,我們的槓桿指標將在 2024 年繼續改善。
Using our September guidance EBITDA of $6 billion, we expect better than a two-turn improvement in net debt-to-EBITDA leverage compared to year-end 2023 and approaching 4.5x and positioning us 2/3 of the way down the path to investment-grade metrics.
根據我們 9 月份 60 億美元的 EBITDA 指引,我們預計與 2023 年底相比,淨債務與 EBITDA 槓桿率將改善兩輪以上,接近 4.5 倍,使我們在投資道路上處於 2/3 的位置- 等級指標。
Looking forward, we expect substantial free cash flow driven by our ongoing focus on operational execution and among the lowest newbuild order book in decades to deliver continued improvements in our leverage metrics and our balance sheet, moving us further down the road to rebuilding our financial fortress while continuing the process of transferring value from debt holders back to shareholders.
展望未來,我們預計,在我們對營運執行的持續關注以及數十年來最低的新建訂單簿的推動下,我們將獲得大量自由現金流,從而持續改善我們的槓桿指標和資產負債表,推動我們在重建金融堡壘的道路上進一步前進同時繼續將價值從債務持有人轉移回股東的過程。
Now operator, let's open up the call for questions.
現在接線員,讓我們開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.
(操作員指示)Matthew Boss,摩根大通。
Matthew Boss - Analyst
Matthew Boss - Analyst
So Josh, on the continued momentum, maybe could you elaborate on the stronger base of business for 2025 and the record start to 2026 that you cited?
Josh,關於持續的勢頭,您能否詳細說明一下您提到的 2025 年更強勁的業務基礎以及 2026 年創紀錄的開局?
Maybe if you could touch on volume and pricing trends that you're currently seeing across regions and maybe specifically in Europe?
或許可以談談您目前在各地區(尤其是歐洲)看到的銷售和價格趨勢嗎?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Sure.
當然。
So I'm probably broad-based is the best way to talk about the strength and what we're seeing on '25.
因此,我的廣泛基礎可能是談論實力以及我們在 25 年所看到的情況的最佳方式。
The book position is higher for both North America and our European brands, and that's consistent across the quarters as well.
北美和歐洲品牌的圖書排名都較高,而且各季度的情況也是一致的。
So we're positioned very well.
所以我們的定位非常好。
Our brands have been doing a great job of pulling forward the booking curve and now we get to take price, which is the goal.
我們的品牌在推動預訂曲線方面做得很好,現在我們可以接受價格,這就是我們的目標。
So it's very encouraging.
所以這是非常令人鼓舞的。
We are we're about two-thirds booked when you look at next 12 months.
展望未來 12 個月,我們大約有三分之二的訂單已被預訂。
So we're in a pretty enviable place.
所以我們處於一個非常令人羨慕的地方。
Matt, did you have a follow-up?
馬特,你有後續行動嗎?
Matthew Boss - Analyst
Matthew Boss - Analyst
So maybe just a follow-up would be on the balance sheet.
所以也許只是資產負債表上的後續行動。
If you could speak to capital priorities from here, just given the free cash flow generation and some of the changes that you've made?
考慮到自由現金流的產生和您所做的一些改變,您是否可以從這裡談談資本優先事項?
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
So basically, our priority one, two, and three is debt reduction, where you have the goal of becoming investment grade, and we do expect to see both the reduction in our debt levels as well as the improvement in our EBITDA, achieve investment-grade metrics as part of our SEA Change program towards the end of 2026.
所以基本上,我們的首要任務一、二、三是減少債務,你的目標是成為投資級,我們確實希望看到我們的債務水平下降以及 EBITDA 的改善,實現投資-等級指標作為我們2026 年底SEA Change 計劃的一部分。
And so we've got plenty of time to think about other alternatives beyond that.
因此,我們有足夠的時間來考慮除此之外的其他替代方案。
Operator
Operator
Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.
史蒂夫·維琴斯基,斯蒂菲爾。
Steve Wieczynski - Analyst
Steve Wieczynski - Analyst
Congratulations on the strong quarter and the outlook.
祝賀強勁的季度和前景。
So Josh or David, this might be some of a shortsighted question.
所以喬許或大衛,這可能是個短視的問題。
And David, you touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks.
大衛,你在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。
But if we kind of think about the fourth quarter yield guidance, it looks to us like it might be a little bit lower versus the implied guidance for the fourth quarter back in -- that you gave back in June.
但如果我們考慮一下第四季度的收益率指引,在我們看來,它可能會比您在 6 月給出的第四季度的隱含指引低一些。
So just wondering if there's anything from a -- whether it's a pricing perspective or any geography or brand, it is showing any -- I don't want to use the word softness, but I guess I have to use that word or weakening in pricing during the fourth quarter?
所以只是想知道是否有任何東西 - 無論是定價角度還是任何地理或品牌,它都顯示出任何 - 我不想使用“柔軟”這個詞,但我想我必須使用這個詞或削弱第四季度的定價?
Or are you guys just taking a more conservative view around onboard spending over the next couple of months?
或者你們只是對未來幾個月的船上支出持更保守的看法?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Steve, this is Josh.
史蒂夫,這是喬許。
Actually, I'm not sure your math, but there was really no change from where we were in June guidance when it comes to the fourth quarter on the yield side.
事實上,我不確定你的數學,但在第四季度的收益率方面,與我們六月的指導相比,確實沒有變化。
We always said -- when we came out with our guidance, frankly, in December, we were challenged a lot, particularly in the fourth quarter, and people didn't think we'd be able to actually reach breakeven year over year because the fourth quarter of '23 was so strong.
我們總是說——坦白說,當我們在 12 月發布指導意見時,我們面臨著很大的挑戰,特別是在第四季度,人們認為我們無法真正實現逐年盈虧平衡,因為23 年第四季度的表現非常強勁。
So now we're talking about 5%, we feel good about that.
所以現在我們談論的是 5%,我們對此感覺很好。
Steve Wieczynski - Analyst
Steve Wieczynski - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Got you.
明白你了。
And then, Josh, I want to ask about the '25 and '26 bookings, and you talked about how you're already 50% booked for next year and in a pretty good position, it seems like already for 2026.
然後,喬什,我想問一下 25 年和 26 年的預訂情況,您談到明年的預訂量已經達到 50%,並且處於一個非常好的位置,看起來 2026 年已經預訂了。
So just wondering if you think about your booking window.
所以想知道您是否考慮過您的預訂窗口。
Has it expanded too much?
是不是擴張太多了?
We're saying that differently, are you nearing a point where you might start leaving -- you might be leaving money on the table if demand kind of stays status quo from here?
我們的意思是,你是否已經接近一個可能開始離開的地步——如果需求從現在開始保持現狀,你可能會把錢留在桌面上?
And then following up on that question, just wondering if you've seen demand accelerate for bookings, maybe more in late '25 and '26 that are going to be touching Celebration Key?
然後跟進這個問題,只是想知道您是否看到預訂需求加速增長,也許在 25 年末和 26 年會增加,這將觸及慶典關鍵?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Sure.
當然。
So as -- the great point on the booking curve, the goal is not an ever-increasing booking curve.
因此,作為預訂曲線上的重點,我們的目標不是不斷增加預訂曲線。
It's to maximize the revenue that we're going to generate by the time we sell.
這是為了最大化我們在銷售時將產生的收入。
I would say this is a brand-by-brand, itinerary-by-itinerary buildup.
我想說這是一個逐個品牌、逐個行程的累積。
And I would say that Almost all of our brands are pretty much -- are higher year-over-year.
我想說的是,我們幾乎所有的品牌都比去年同期更高。
There's one that's not, and that's an active decision to pull back because we want to make sure we're not leaving price on the table, exactly to your point.
有一個不是,這是一個積極的撤回決定,因為我們希望確保我們不會將價格留在桌面上,完全符合您的觀點。
So despite the fact that overall, we're in a record position, we are looking at that, obviously, with a lot more clinical eye and making sure we're doing the right thing to optimize that revenue.
因此,儘管總體而言,我們處於創紀錄的位置,但顯然我們正在以更多的臨床眼光來看待這一點,並確保我們正在做正確的事情來優化收入。
When it comes to Celebration Key, clearly, there's a premium and it's going to benefit us, in particular, if the 2026 ongoing story when we get to ramp up to about 20 ships, which is going to be pretty fantastic.
顯然,說到 Celebration Key,它是有溢價的,這將使我們受益,特別是如果 2026 年我們的船舶數量能夠增加到大約 20 艘,那將是非常美妙的。
And the fact that we're doing all of this that we've been able to talk about with 2024 and even into the first half of '25, it's got nothing to do with Celebration Key.
事實上,我們正在做的所有這些事情,我們已經能夠在 2024 年甚至 25 年上半年談論,這與 Celebration Key 無關。
This is just based on the natural demand and all the commercial activities that we're doing and delivering on board, and that's supporting real strong revenue increases.
這只是基於自然需求以及我們在船上進行和交付的所有商業活動,這支持了真正強勁的收入成長。
Operator
Operator
Robin Farley, UBS.
羅賓法利,瑞銀集團。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
I know it's too early to give guidance for 2025 but
我知道現在給 2025 年指導還為時過早,但是
--
--
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
You're going to ask anyway -- but you're going to ask anyway.
無論如何你都會問——但無論如何你都會問。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Let me just ask it this way, which I think is harmless.
我就這樣問吧,我認為這是無害的。
Given everything you're saying about the booked position for 2025 and even 2026 being at record levels, is it fair to say that you're off to a better start for 2025 than a typical year?
鑑於您所說的 2025 年甚至 2026 年的預訂職位都處於創紀錄水平,可以公平地說您 2025 年的開局比往年更好嗎?
So hopefully, that's an intent we ask it.
希望這是我們提出的意圖。
And then I also did just want to clarify on the expense.
然後我也只是想澄清一下費用。
David, I heard what you mentioned the $25 million of expense that was sort of borrowed from -- that will show up in Q4 that kind of shifted that $25 million.
大衛,我聽說你提到了 2500 萬美元的支出,這筆支出是藉來的——這將在第四季度出現,從而改變了這 2500 萬美元。
But was there a separate amount, and I apologize if I missed this, it was a one-time cost saves this year that we should think about coming back in 2025?
但是是否有單獨的金額,如果我錯過了這一點,我很抱歉,這是今年一次性的成本節省,我們應該考慮在 2025 年回來嗎?
I just wanted to catch what that amount was and even when it was for, if you would give that?
我只是想知道這筆金額是多少,即使在什麼時候,您是否願意提供?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Okay.
好的。
So I will actually very directly answer your question.
所以我實際上會非常直接地回答你的問題。
So we are starting off even better for '25 than we did for 2024, which is shaping up to be a record year.
因此,我們 25 年的開局比 2024 年更好,2024 年將創紀錄的一年。
We are higher in occupancy, and we're higher in price and the brands are doing a great job of really trying to optimize that booking curve and revenue generation.
我們的入住率更高,價格也更高,而且各品牌在努力優化預訂曲線和創造收入方面做得非常出色。
So that's not guidance, but it's a point in time, and that's where we are.
所以這不是指導,但它是一個時間點,這就是我們所處的位置。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
As far as the second question is concerned, yes, there were a couple of reasons why we reduced cost by the full point of the year.
就第二個問題而言,是的,我們全年降低成本有幾個原因。
One included some onetime benefits, wasn't huge, probably about $20 million of the $100 million related to some pension credits and a few other little things for the year.
其中包括一些一次性福利,金額不大,可能是 1 億美元中的大約 2000 萬美元,與一些退休金抵免和當年的其他一些小事情有關。
Operator
Operator
Ben Chaiken, Mizuho Securities.
Ben Chaiken,瑞穗證券。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Hey.
嘿。
Good morning.
早安.
On the cost side, EBITDA flow-through has been stronger than expected.
在成本方面,EBITDA 流動性強於預期。
It was almost 60%.
幾乎是60%。
Costs have been better generally for the majority of the year.
今年的大部分時間裡,成本總體上都比較好。
Can you talk about some of the cost saves, margin opportunities you're finding?
您能談談您發現的一些成本節省和利潤機會嗎?
Is this simply better leveraging a fleet that is now leaner subsequent to some of the asset sales over the past few years?
這是否只是更好地利用過去幾年的一些資產出售後現在更加精簡的機隊?
Or is it cost that you're actively pulling out of the business or both?
或者您主動退出該業務是否需要付出成本,或者兩者兼而有之?
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
No, it's not cost that we're pulling out of the business.
不,我們退出該業務並不是為了成本。
I mean what we're seeing is hundreds of small items across the board, across many brands, things like crew travel savings, other port savings opportunities as well as a lot of sourcing savings, cost innovation better leveraging our scale across all the brands.
我的意思是,我們看到的是跨多個品牌的數百個小項目,例如船員旅行節省、其他港口節省機會以及大量採購節省、成本創新,更好地利用我們在所有品牌中的規模。
And that probably represented about half of the $100 million cost savings that we roll through for the full year.
這可能占我們全年節省的 1 億美元成本的一半左右。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
And then I guess for Josh, higher level, you folded P&O Australia into the Carnival brand this year.
然後我想對喬希來說,更高層次的是,你今年將 P&O Australia 納入了嘉年華品牌。
I know it was somewhat smaller scale, but do you think there's other opportunities to streamline the portfolio in a similar way going forward?
我知道規模較小,但您認為未來有其他機會以類似的方式簡化投資組合嗎?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
I'd never say never take things off the table.
我從來不會說永遠不要把事情從桌面上拿下來。
I think this is one of those decisions that just made a lot of sense and something that we felt pretty passionately about executing quickly.
我認為這是非常有意義的決定之一,也是我們非常熱衷於快速執行的決定之一。
We'll continue to review our portfolio brand-by-brand, ship-by-ship.
我們將繼續逐品牌、逐船檢視我們的產品組合。
But right now, we feel real good about how we're entering 2025.
但現在,我們對即將進入 2025 年感到非常滿意。
Operator
Operator
James Hardiman, Citi.
花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
Hey, good morning.
嘿,早安。
I wanted to dig into some of the cost commentary you gave us, David.
大衛,我想深入了解您給我們的一些成本評論。
So 3.5% growth for this year, that seems like it's getting better, obviously, with some cost saves and maybe better inflation.
今年的成長率為 3.5%,顯然,隨著成本的節省和更好的通膨,情況似乎正在變得更好。
I think you called out about 0.5 point next year for Celebration Key and another 75 bps from dry docks.
我認為您明年將在 Celebration Key 上調高 0.5 個基點,並在乾船塢調高 75 個基點。
I guess, are there any call-outs on the other side of that equation?
我想,等式的另一邊是否有任何標註?
I don't think our starting point should be in that 5% range if we were to just take the 3.5% this year and add those 2% callouts.
如果我們今年只採用 3.5% 並加上 2% 的標註,我認為我們的起點不應該在 5% 的範圍內。
Maybe talk us through sort of what the base level of inflation is as we think about 2025 and any other sort of positive factors that will help offset some of the negative ones for next year?
或許請告訴我們,我們對 2025 年的通膨基準水準是多少,以及任何其他有助於抵消明年一些負面因素的正面因素?
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Well, it's -- if you know exactly what inflation is going to be over the next 15 months, let me know, but we're still trying to figure that out.
好吧,如果您確切知道未來 15 個月的通膨情況,請告訴我,但我們仍在努力弄清楚這一點。
There is some level of inflation that continues in our business.
我們的業務仍然存在一定程度的通貨膨脹。
We'll include that within our guidance when we provided in December plus, we continue to work on cost-saving opportunities.
我們將把這一點納入我們 12 月提供的指導中,並且我們將繼續致力於節省成本的機會。
As I said in the June call, even though we have the best cost metrics in the business.
正如我在六月的電話會議中所說,儘管我們擁有業內最好的成本指標。
We still believe there are opportunities in our business to further leverage our scale and to work through those opportunities as we did in the second and the third quarter, and we'll continue to do so.
我們仍然相信,我們的業務有機會進一步利用我們的規模,並像我們在第二季和第三季那樣利用這些機會,我們將繼續這樣做。
And we'll include some of that in our guidance, which will offset some of inflation.
我們將在我們的指導中納入其中的一些內容,這將抵消部分通貨膨脹。
So -- but stay tuned.
所以——但請繼續關注。
The two things that I gave in my prepared remarks were relative to the dry docks and the cost of Celebration Key are pretty well fixed at this point.
我在準備好的發言中給出的兩件事是與乾船塢相關的,而慶祝鑰匙的成本目前已經很好地確定了。
And so we wanted to highlight those in the prepared remarks.
因此,我們想在準備好的發言中強調這些內容。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And then obviously, it sounds like everything is going pretty well from a demand perspective.
顯然,從需求的角度來看,一切似乎都很順利。
Maybe speak to one of the questions that we keep getting is the potential for the widening conflict in the Middle East to negatively impact your business.
也許我們不斷收到的問題之一是中東不斷擴大的衝突可能對您的業務產生負面影響。
I mean I -- to some degree, it would seem to help that much of that region was already vacated in 2024.
我的意思是,在某種程度上,該地區的大部分地區已在 2024 年騰空,這似乎有所幫助。
I guess the hope was that, that would be a '25 tailwind.
我猜希望這會是 25 年的順風車。
That now seems off the table.
現在看來這已經不可能了。
But just maybe speak to how, if at all, you expect that region to impact your business next year?
但也許可以談談您預計該地區明年將如何影響您的業務(如果有的話)?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
So we weren't banking on it getting better and hope to God it doesn't get worse -- thoughts -- everybody in the Middle East region and hoping for peace.
因此,我們並不指望情況會變得更好,也希望上帝不會變得更糟——想想——中東地區的每個人都希望和平。
But our business isn't really contingent on it.
但我們的業務並不真正取決於它。
It's not a major source market for us, and we're not going to the region.
這不是我們的主要客源市場,我們也不會去該地區。
So unless it were to escalate to something significantly wider than the Middle East, our ships are mobile, and we're in source markets that are phenomenal for us with lots of potential.
因此,除非事態升級到比中東更廣泛的地區,否則我們的船隻是機動的,而且我們所處的客源市場對我們來說是巨大的,具有巨大的潛力。
Operator
Operator
Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.
帕特里克·斯科爾斯 (Patrick Scholes),Truist 證券公司。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Hey, guys.
嘿,夥計們。
Good morning, everyone.
大家早安。
My first question, you talked about dry docks increasing next year.
我的第一個問題,你談到明年乾船塢會增加。
Can you give us a little more possible granularity on dry dock increases or decreases for perhaps some quarters by quarter for next year for modeling purposes?
您能否為我們提供更多可能的粒度,說明明年乾船塢的增加或減少可能會按季度進行,以便進行建模?
Thank you.
謝謝。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
So I don't have all that detailed handy, Patrick.
所以我手邊沒有那麼詳細的資料,派崔克。
But if you go back, I'm sure she can provide that to you.
但如果你回去,我相信她可以提供給你。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Beth, we will call you.
貝絲,我們會打電話給你。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And then second, I see there's some news out about a new cruise pier at Half Moon Cay.
其次,我看到一些關於半月島新郵輪碼頭的消息。
Do you have any longer-term plans above and beyond just a pier for Half Moon Cay, such as water parks and the like down the road?
除了半月島的碼頭之外,您還有其他長期計劃嗎,例如路邊的水上公園等?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
So well, I'll give you a yes and a no.
那麼好吧,我會給你一個是和一個否。
So do we have more plans?
那我們還有更多的計劃嗎?
Absolutely.
絕對地。
Do we want a water park?
我們想要一個水上樂園嗎?
Absolutely not.
絕對不是。
So the difference between Celebration Key and what we're building at -- and -- pardon me, the difference between Half Moon Cay and what we're building a Celebration Key is Celebration Key is really about five portals of fun and looking to be that entertainment center.
因此,慶祝島和我們正在建造的地方之間的區別——並且——請原諒,半月島和我們正在建造的慶祝島之間的區別是,慶祝島實際上是關於五個有趣的門戶,並希望成為那個娛樂中心。
What we have at Half Moon Cay is one of the most naturally beautiful white sand Beach, Crescent Shape islands in the Caribbean.
半月島是加勒比海最美麗的白色沙灘新月形島嶼之一。
And that's a true private destination and something that we want to enhance.
這是一個真正的私人目的地,也是我們想要加強的。
And we will be talking about that more over the coming months.
我們將在接下來的幾個月裡更多地討論這個問題。
I won't steal Christine's thunder, but good things coming that are going to make that in a pretty amazing destination and of itself for a completely different reason.
我不會搶克莉絲汀的風頭,但美好的事情即將到來,這將使這裡成為一個非常令人驚嘆的目的地,而且出於完全不同的原因。
Operator
Operator
Brandt Montour, Barclays.
布蘭特·蒙圖爾,巴克萊銀行。
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Good morning, everybody.
大家早安。
Thanks for taking my questions.
感謝您回答我的問題。
So just starting off, we haven't really touched on SEA Change and your three-year targets there.
因此,剛開始時,我們還沒有真正涉及 SEA 變革以及你們的三年目標。
We kind of got a little bit of an update in the release.
我們在版本中進行了一些更新。
I guess the question is, Josh, with this new full year guidance, obviously, we can calculate the progress you're making, and we can look at that number and sort of imply some KPIs yields cost to get to those targets.
我想問題是,喬什,顯然,有了這個新的全年指導,我們可以計算您所取得的進展,我們可以查看該數字,並在某種程度上暗示一些 KPI 產生實現這些目標的成本。
And it's implying a pretty narrow spread between those two.
這意味著兩者之間的差距非常小。
And would give us the sense that if we harken back to your -- what you gave us in the Investor Day, what you were thinking for per diems that were sustainable and costs that were sustainable that we would think you could do better?
這會讓我們感覺到,如果我們回想一下您在投資者日給我們的信息,您對可持續的每日津貼和可持續的成本的想法,我們會認為您可以做得更好?
So I guess if you could just -- I know that, that was a long-winded way of asking the same question that you've already gotten twice.
所以我想如果你可以——我知道,這是一種冗長的方式來問同樣的問題,你已經被問過兩次了。
But if you could just give us a sense for how you think about the business in the current operating environment. given all the positive commentary you've said today vis-a-vis those longer-term targets?
但如果您能讓我們了解您如何看待當前營運環境下的業務。鑑於您今天對這些長期目標發表的所有積極評論?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Well, I think the teams around the world are doing a phenomenal job.
嗯,我認為世界各地的團隊都做得非常好。
And if you think about -- in December, we were saying up 8.5 points on percent on yields, up 4.5% on cost, which gets us to 9% ROIC.
如果你想一想,12 月份,我們說收益率上升 8.5 個百分點,成本上升 4.5%,這使我們的投資回報率達到 9%。
And now we're seeing up almost 10.5% on yield, only up 3.5% on cost.
現在我們看到收益率成長了近 10.5%,而成本僅成長了 3.5%。
It gets us to 10.5% on ROIC.
它使我們的投入資本回報率為 10.5%。
So clearly, we're outperforming the expectations.
很明顯,我們的表現超出了預期。
It gets us about 75% of the way there for two of the metrics, the EBITDA per ALBD and the ROIC after one year with two years remaining and carbon is progressing as expected.
它為我們提供了兩個指標的大約 75%,即每 ALBD 的 EBITDA 和一年後的 ROIC,剩餘兩年,碳進展如預期。
We're about 50% there after one year.
一年後我們的比例達到了大約 50%。
So the teams aren't doing all those things to make targets.
因此,團隊並沒有做所有這些事情來設定目標。
They're doing those things to make their guests happy and provide great business results and the outcome that's going to be hitting those targets.
他們所做的這些事情是為了讓客人滿意並提供出色的業務成果以及實現這些目標的結果。
Do I want to hit them early?
我想早點打擊他們嗎?
Yes, do I want to get further than that?
是的,我想走得更遠嗎?
Absolutely.
絕對地。
But we'll take that in stride, and we'll probably talk more when we get to December guidance, and you could put that in context where we'll end in 2025 and then take it from there.
但我們會泰然處之,當我們得到 12 月的指導時,我們可能會進行更多討論,您可以將其放在我們將於 2025 年結束的背景下,然後從那裡開始。
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then just a follow-up, maybe, Josh, if you could address the broader land-based leisure demand environment, what we're seeing elsewhere is not what cruise has seen, we kind of see sort of steady, slow somewhat softer normalization.
然後,也許是後續行動,喬什,如果你能解決更廣泛的陸地休閒需求環境,我們在其他地方看到的並不是郵輪所看到的,我們看到了某種穩定、緩慢、稍微軟一些的正常化。
We don't get any of that from you in your commentary today.
我們在今天的評論中沒有從你那裡得到任何資訊。
I guess, we understand why it's happening, but if the rest of the world is narrowing a little bit toward narrowing your, let's say, your gap from the top.
我想,我們理解為什麼會發生這種情況,但如果世界其他地方正在縮小一點,比如說,縮小你與頂部的差距。
Do you see any of that affecting your consumers' behavior and willingness to spend and sort of pricing sensitivity?
您認為這些因素是否會影響消費者的行為、消費意願、定價敏感度?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
We are still a remarkable value to land-based alternatives.
對於陸基替代品來說,我們仍然具有非凡的價值。
And maybe that bit is softening because we're doing better.
也許這一點正在軟化,因為我們做得更好了。
Who knows?
誰知道?
You have to ask them that.
你必須問他們這個。
I can't tell you their business.
我不能告訴你他們的事。
But -- we have a tremendous value.
但是——我們有巨大的價值。
We are doing a better job of getting our word out better marketing, more eyes on the industry, more eyes on us.
我們正在更好地宣傳我們的訊息,更好的行銷,更多的目光關注行業,更多的目光關注我們。
Our new-to-cruise this past quarter was up about 17% year-over-year.
上個季度我們的郵輪新客數量年增了約 17%。
That's not an accident.
這並非偶然。
That's because our brands are really focused on driving that demand profile.
這是因為我們的品牌真正專注於推動這種需求。
So I don't have a crystal ball, and I can't tell you what the world is going to look like a year from now, two years from now.
所以我沒有水晶球,我無法告訴你一年後、兩年後世界會是什麼樣子。
But I can tell you if we keep focusing on commercial execution and doing the right things and doing them better, then there's a long runway because the one thing that's never been a question is can we execute on board and deliver a great experience.
但我可以告訴你,如果我們繼續專注於商業執行,做正確的事情並做得更好,那麼還有很長的路要走,因為從來沒有問題的一件事是我們能否在船上執行並提供出色的體驗。
And that's always been the case.
情況一直如此。
It's just a matter of how we convince people to come with us who have never have, and I think we're doing a good job on that.
問題只是我們如何說服那些從未接觸過我們的人加入我們,我認為我們在這方面做得很好。
And I guess I'd be remiss if I didn't shout out the travel agents because all they do is amplify our voice in a tremendous way.
我想,如果我沒有大聲疾呼旅行社,那就是我的失職,因為他們所做的只是以巨大的方式放大我們的聲音。
And so that success that we're seeing in building that demand profile is really hand-in-hand with their success, and we appreciate their efforts.
因此,我們在建立需求概況方面所看到的成功與他們的成功確實是密不可分的,我們感謝他們的努力。
Operator
Operator
Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.
康納·坎寧安,Melius 研究中心。
Conor Cunningham - Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Analyst
Everyone, Thank you.
大家,謝謝你們。
Maybe sticking with the comments on new-to-cruise.
也許堅持對新遊輪的評論。
Can you -- I mean, you look at your '25 bookings, are you seeing new-to-cruise and new-to-brand accelerate?
你能——我的意思是,你看看你 25 年的預訂,你是否發現新郵輪和新品牌的預訂量正在加速?
And if you could just touch on just the younger demographic.
如果你能只談談年輕人口。
I think I asked you that last quarter, but it just -- it seems like a pretty big megatrend for you over the long term.
我想我上個季度問過你這個問題,但從長遠來看,這對你來說似乎是一個相當大的大趨勢。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Well, sorry, I just got distracted -- as far as what the demand profile is for the future bookings, we don't really talk about that in advance, but we're happy to talk about it when we get to our results, and we can talk about what the breakdown is for the profile of the folks who sailed.
好吧,抱歉,我只是分心了——至於未來預訂的需求概況,我們並沒有提前討論這個問題,但我們很樂意在得到結果時討論它,我們可以討論航行者的個人資料的詳細情況。
But suffice it to say, everything I'm saying is not ending in 2024 with respect to our efforts to keep optimizing and keep getting better at execution, keep driving that demand profile and [capturing] that net as widely as we can.
但我只想說,我所說的一切都不會在 2024 年結束,我們將不斷優化、不斷提高執行力、繼續推動需求概況並儘可能廣泛地[捕獲]該網絡。
We have almost no capacity growth.
我們幾乎沒有產能成長。
So all of that increased demand is just going to result in who wants to pay the most to get on our ships, and that's what we're driving for.
因此,所有這些增加的需求只會導致誰願意花最多的錢登上我們的船,而這就是我們所追求的目標。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah.
是的。
And as far as the [age] is concerned, I think we touched on this last quarter.
就[年齡]而言,我認為我們在上個季度談到了這一點。
I mean if you look back at all of our brands over the last 10, 12 years or so, the average age for most of the brands really hasn't changed.
我的意思是,如果你回顧過去 10、12 年左右我們所有的品牌,大多數品牌的平均年齡確實沒有改變。
Now of course, the repeat gas who sailed a decade ago or 10 years old, but the average age of our guests.
現在當然,重複氣那些十年前或十年前航行的人,但我們客人的平均年齡。
So we are attracting a lot of new young people and some of our brands like Carnival Cruise Lines has an average age of like 41 years old.
因此,我們吸引了許多新的年輕人,我們的一些品牌(例如嘉年華郵輪公司)的平均年齡約為 41 歲。
So that's a brand, obviously, millennials these days are, I think it's 43 or 44 years old or younger.
所以這是一個品牌,顯然,現在的千禧世代,我認為他們的年齡是 43 歲或 44 歲或更年輕。
And that does represent half the -- over half the population in the United States.
這確實代表了美國一半以上的人口。
But Carnival has got over half of its guests for millennials because the average age is 41 or younger.
但嘉年華一半以上的客人是千禧世代,因為他們的平均年齡在 41 歲或以下。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
But I would say -- I think I said this on either the last call or the call before, we love boomers, right?
但我想說——我想我在上次電話或之前的電話中說過,我們喜歡嬰兒潮一代,對嗎?
And we love Gen X. I mean, it is -- if you think about our portfolio approach, we have brands like Holland America like [QNR] where that is where they're trying to push that demand profile because it's approached with a very good income, a very good retirement base and a lot of time to take cruises that can go 14 nights, 21 nights world cruises.
我們喜歡X 世代。方式來實現的。
So we love the fact that we're pushing harder into that millennial generation, and we're getting that interest and that demand profile.
因此,我們喜歡這樣一個事實:我們正在更加努力地推動千禧世代的發展,並且我們正在獲得這種興趣和需求。
But we don't want that to the exclusion of really leaning into the generations for what we have to offer.
但我們不希望這種情況排除我們真正向幾代人提供我們所提供的服務的可能性。
Conor Cunningham - Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Analyst
Helpful.
有幫助。
On Celebration Key, I know you've gotten a lot of questions on that.
關於 Celebration Key,我知道你們對此有很多疑問。
Just it is opening in mid of next year.
只是它將於明年年中開業。
Is it creating the halo effect that you would have expected?
它是否產生了您所期望的光環效應?
Like are people asking for -- or maybe they're asking a little bit different.
就像人們的要求一樣——或者他們的要求可能有點不同。
I think you mentioned 19 ships are going to touch there.
我想你提到有 19 艘船將到達那裡。
Like are those ones selling out quicker than you would have expected reverse relative to history in general?
與歷史相比,這些產品的銷售速度是否比您預期的還要快?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Unfortunately, because every carnival ship is going, there's no test case.
不幸的是,因為每艘嘉年華船都在航行,所以沒有測試案例。
But -- so yes, we are seeing a premium for it.
但是,是的,我們看到了它的溢價。
We are seeing people that are seeking it out.
我們看到人們正在尋找它。
And the good thing is it hasn't even opened yet.
好消息是它還沒有開放。
So we think the rubber is really going to hit the road once we can deliver the experience and really show people what it can do.
因此,我們認為,一旦我們能夠提供體驗並真正向人們展示它的功能,橡膠就會真正上路。
Operator
Operator
David Katz, Jefferies.
大衛‧卡茨,傑弗里斯。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
Morning, everyone.
早安,大家。
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
I appreciate all the details so far.
我很欣賞到目前為止的所有細節。
And it's interesting when we look across our coverage, there are some smaller pockets of weakness that consumers have started to demonstrate here and there.
有趣的是,當我們縱觀我們的報導時,消費者已經開始到處表現出一些較小的弱點。
And this is a broadly based positive quarter and I just wanted to double click on the issue of are there any small pockets, any areas of consumer behavior that we should just keep an eye on as we go forward that are, again, embedded in what appears to be a pretty broad-based strong quarter and outlook?
這是一個基礎廣泛的積極季度,我只是想雙擊這個問題,即我們在前進的過程中是否應該密切關註消費者行為的任何小領域,這些領域再次嵌入了哪些領域? 似乎是一個基礎相當廣泛的強勁季度和前景?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Yeah.
是的。
No, I appreciate the question.
不,我很欣賞這個問題。
I guess I'm happy that I just have to say no.
我想我很高興我不得不說不。
What we're seeing is, in fact, broad-based.
事實上,我們所看到的情況是基礎廣泛的。
We're seeing that demand for all the brands pretty much across the portfolio.
我們看到對整個產品組合中幾乎所有品牌的需求。
What we're seeing it in the booking trends that we've talked about, the onboard spending.
我們在我們討論過的預訂趨勢中看到的是機上支出。
The onboard spending levels are -- were 7% up year over year.
船上支出水準較去年同期成長 7%。
That's off the top of my head, it might be off by a point.
這超出了我的想像,可能會偏離一點。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
(multiple speakers) More than this second quarter, so
(多個發言者)比第二季還要多,所以
--
--
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
6.7%, on board per diems were 6.7% year over year, which is an acceleration versus the increase that we saw in second quarter versus the prior year.
6.7%,船上每日津貼年比為 6.7%,與我們在第二季度看到的與去年同期相比有所增長。
So all the things that you look at is our -- is that demand profile changing?
所以你看到的所有東西都是我們的——需求狀況是否改變?
Or is the state of the consumer changing I can't speak to macroeconomics because there's a lot going on in the world, but at least with what we have to offer people are happy to pay and to participate, and we think that's a great thing.
還是消費者的狀態正在改變? 我無法談論宏觀經濟學,因為世界上正在發生很多事情,但至少我們所提供的東西人們樂於付費和參與,我們認為這是一件偉大的事情。
And we think that goes back to all the things that we've been talking about for the last two years about where we want to focus and make sure that we are doing a better and better job as time goes on.
我們認為這可以追溯到過去兩年我們一直在談論的所有事情,即我們想要關注的重點,並確保隨著時間的推移我們做得越來越好。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
Perfect.
完美的。
And if I can, just as my follow-up, are you able to observe or record any trade-down dynamics where part of the demand you're seeing is a consumer who's traded out of something else into a cruise vacation?
如果我可以的話,就像我的後續行動一樣,您是否能夠觀察或記錄任何以舊換新的動態,您所看到的部分需求是消費者將其他東西換成郵輪度假?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
No, nothing that we've seen that says that.
不,我們沒有看到任何這樣的說法。
I mean I think it's the opposite.
我的意思是我認為事實恰恰相反。
It's -- we're doing a better job of convincing them.
我們在說服他們方面做得更好。
This is something they want to do, not because they're trading down from something, but that they want to experience what we have to offer.
這是他們想做的事情,不是因為他們要放棄某些東西,而是因為他們想體驗我們所提供的東西。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And I apologize for the questions, my (multiple speakers) congrats on the quarter.
我對這些問題表示歉意,我(多位發言者)祝賀本季。
Operator
Operator
Jaime Katz, Morningstar.
海梅·卡茨,晨星。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Hi, good morning, I'm curious if you have any update on, I guess, the Chinese consumer?
你好,早安,我想知道你是否有關於中國消費者的最新消息?
Is it trending as you would like or Asia Pacific in general?
它的趨勢是否如您所願,或是整個亞太地區的趨勢?
Just because the data that's been coming out of the region has been a little bit lumpy, and it was obviously something that was pretty meaningful prior to the pandemic.
只是因為來自該地區的數據有點不穩定,而這顯然在大流行之前是非常有意義的。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Yes.
是的。
Jaime, it wasn't very meaningful for us prior to the pandemic and the grand scheme of things.
海梅,在大流行和宏偉計劃之前,這對我們來說並沒有多大意義。
It was a few percentage points of our capacity that was really dedicated to China.
我們的產能中只有幾個百分點真正致力於中國市場。
We have, as I've been pretty open about, I'm ecstatic that it's reopened to international cruising.
正如我一直公開談論的那樣,我很高興它重新向國際巡航開放。
I wanted to be very successful for our competitors, but it's not something that we're pursuing at this time and have not.
我希望為我們的競爭對手取得非常成功,但這不是我們目前正在追求的目標,也沒有實現。
With respect to the region overall, when it comes to Japan, Taiwan and other regions, that's going well.
就整個地區而言,日本、台灣和其他地區進展順利。
People like cruising with us before, and they continue to enjoy it now.
人們以前喜歡和我們一起航行,現在他們仍然喜歡這樣。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
I was just curious if there was any movement with them with outbound travel more so than anything else.
我只是好奇他們是否有任何出境旅行方面的動向。
As far as occupancy in the European brands, is there a little bit of room left in that for upside?
就歐洲品牌的佔有率而言,還有上升空間嗎?
Or has the gap sort of closed on that?
或者說這方面的差距已經縮小了嗎?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
I mean overall, we're back to historical norms, which is a range.
我的意思是,總的來說,我們回到了歷史標準,這是一個範圍。
It's not a number.
這不是一個數字。
And I'd say all of our brands to varying degrees, have the ability to maybe dress a little higher here and there.
我想說的是,我們所有的品牌都在不同程度上有能力到處穿得更高一點。
It's not going to be a big driver of our improvement as we look forward.
正如我們所期望的那樣,它不會成為我們改進的主要推動力。
It's really going to be from driving price, which is where we're focused.
這實際上將來自於推動價格,這是我們關注的重點。
But there's always an opportunity to make some tweaks and find some more occupancy.
但總有機會進行一些調整並找到更多的空間。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
And I don't think you guys had mentioned anything on any hurricane impact, but any insight to the cost of that disruption if you have it, would be helpful.
我認為你們沒有提到任何有關颶風影響的內容,但是如果您了解了這種破壞的成本,那麼任何了解都會有所幫助。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Yes.
是的。
I mean ours is -- it's insignificant compared to the impact that it's having on the region, which, first and foremost, we should take a second to just think about.
我的意思是,與它對該地區產生的影響相比,我們的影響微不足道,首先,我們應該花點時間考慮一下。
But putting that aside, it's a few million dollars for us.
但撇開這些不談,這對我們來說就是幾百萬美元。
It's not anything of significance.
這不是什麼重要的事。
Operator
Operator
Assia Georgieva, Infinity Research.
阿西亞·格奧爾基耶娃,無限研究。
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
Good morning, guys.
早安,夥計們。
Congratulations on a great quarter.
恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。
And I'll just delve into the few quick questions that I have.
我將深入探討我的幾個簡單問題。
Occupancy is still not fully caught up relative to fiscal 2019.
與 2019 財年相比,入住率仍未完全趕上。
Isn't that by itself already a yield opportunity?
這本身不就是一個收益機會嗎?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Yes.
是的。
Like I said, we operate in a range for occupancy, and we are within our range, but there's certainly the opportunity to push that a little bit more.
就像我說的,我們在入住率範圍內運營,並且我們在我們的範圍內,但肯定有機會進一步推動這一點。
It's just not going to be the biggest driver of how we can improve the revenue picture going forward.
它不會成為我們改善未來收入狀況的最大驅動力。
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
And maybe a quick question for David.
也許還有一個簡短的問題想問大衛。
Fuel costs seem to be a little bit -- well, quite a bit higher relative to what we were estimating because we track
燃料成本似乎比我們估計的要高一些,因為我們跟踪
[183 and jail].
[183和監獄]。
Could that possibly be related to shore power in the Baltics, Denmark, Germany ports that are offering short power Sweden, et cetera.
這可能與波羅的海、丹麥、德國港口的岸電有關,這些港口為瑞典等提供電力短缺。
Is that part of the play there?
這是劇中的一部分嗎?
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
No, because our shore power, when we buy it, is actually not included in the fuel expense.
不會,因為我們的岸電,我們買的時候,其實是不包含在燃油費用裡的。
It's included in port expenses because we purchased it at the port.
因為我們是在港口購買的,所以它包含在港口費用中。
So that would not have been an impact.
所以這不會產生影響。
So I'm not sure what you're looking at and what you're tracking.
所以我不確定你在看什麼以及在追蹤什麼。
But Beth can give you some websites to look at, which maybe will improve your tracking overall.
但貝絲可以給你一些網站供你查看,這也許會改善你的整體追蹤。
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
That would be great and Beth, I'm sorry, I'll bother you on this one.
那太好了,貝絲,對不起,我會在這件事上打擾你。
And basically, the -- my second question, given the acceleration in EBITDA generation and how far ahead you're with the SEA Change program?
基本上,我的第二個問題是,考慮到 EBITDA 產生的加速以及您在 SEA 變革計劃方面的進展如何?
Is it possible at this point to order a sister ship for 2027, 2028 delivery, whether it's for a Princess brand or Carnival brand?
現在是否可以訂購一艘2027年、2028年交付的姊妹船,無論是公主品牌還是嘉年華品牌?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
No.
不。
I mean, our order book is set through 2028.
我的意思是,我們的訂單定到 2028 年。
We feel very good about that.
我們對此感覺非常好。
And as you know, we did order what we call [Project Days], which is next generation for Carnival, what -- that doesn't start until 2029.
如您所知,我們確實訂購了所謂的 [Project Days],這是嘉年華的下一代項目,要到 2029 年才會開始。
So the focus of all that EBITDA generation is really its cash flow, and we're going to use the headroom with a reduced capital expenditures to pay down debt.
因此,EBITDA 產生的重點實際上是現金流,我們將利用資本支出減少的淨空來償還債務。
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
So Josh, in terms of the debt tranches, we're going after the highest cost of debt, correct?
那麼喬希,就債務部分而言,我們正在追求最高的債務成本,對嗎?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Well, as long as it's got a good NPV if we want to pay it down.
好吧,如果我們想還清的話,只要它有一個好的淨現值。
So there's a lot of factors -- yes, go ahead.
所以有很多因素——是的,繼續吧。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
I was going to say it's really a combination of three things that we look at.
我想說的是,這實際上是我們所關注的三件事的結合。
One is the cost of the debt.
一是債務成本。
And we do have two double-digit issuances out there.
我們確實有兩次兩位數的發行。
Both are callable in 2025.
兩者均可於 2025 年贖回。
So that should help our overall -- when we -- we'll look at refinancing those in the early part of next year.
因此,這應該對我們的整體有所幫助——當我們——我們將考慮在明年初為這些項目進行再融資時。
We also look at the maturity towers.
我們也關注成熟度塔。
We're well set through '26 on maturity towers.
我們在 26 年成熟度塔上已經準備好了。
They're very well managed.
他們管理得很好。
But the towers in '27 and '28, we'll be looking at refinancing some of that as well as looking at secured versus unsecured debt because our goal is to get to be completely unsecured, but we'll manage that over time as we move forward.
但是 27 和 28 年的塔樓,我們將考慮對其中一些進行再融資,並考慮有擔保債務與無擔保債務,因為我們的目標是完全無擔保,但隨著時間的推移,我們將管理這一點前進。
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
And David, that was basically my question, has cost versus secured towers.
大衛,這基本上是我的問題,成本與安全塔的比較。
So it's a balancing act, I imagine?
我想這是一種平衡行為?
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Correct.
正確的。
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
Assia Georgieva - Analyst
All right.
好的。
And lastly, if I may ask somebody is encroaching on your Galveston, Texas port and building a terminal there.
最後,請容許我問一下,有人正在侵占德州加爾維斯頓的港口並在那裡建造一個碼頭。
What do you think about that?
你對此有何看法?
They already have a presence in Miami and are doing Port Canero, et cetera, an unnamed competitor, who do not have to report to us on ROIC or other metrics?
他們已經在邁阿密開展業務,並且正在做卡內羅港等項目,這是一個未透露姓名的競爭對手,他們不需要向我們報告投資回報率或其他指標?
How do you feel about sort of the -- what I call the encroachment?
你對我所說的這種侵犯有何看法?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
I don't think about it as an encroachment.
我不認為這是一種侵犯。
We are 2% of the overall vacation market.
我們佔整個度假市場的 2%。
And if it's the company, I think you're talking about, it's a small part of the overall cruise market growing, but small.
如果是公司,我想你談論的是整個郵輪市場成長的一小部分,但很小。
And so there's -- the demand profile as long as we do our jobs with our world-class portfolio of brands will be just fine.
因此,只要我們用世界一流的品牌組合來完成我們的工作,需求狀況就會很好。
I got to cut you off though, you did three questions, and the operator just asked for one.
不過我得打斷你了,你問了三個問題,接線生只問了一個。
Sorry.
對不起。
Operator
Operator
Dan Politzer, Wells Fargo.
丹‧波利策,富國銀行。
Dan Politzer - Analyst
Dan Politzer - Analyst
Hey, good morning, everyone.
嘿,大家早安。
Josh, I do want to follow up on the fourth quarter yield comment.
喬希,我確實想跟進第四季度的收益率評論。
I know you mentioned that there really wasn't much if any -- actually, any change to your prior guide.
我知道你提到過,實際上,對你之前的指南沒有太多改變(如果有的話)。
But as we think about the third quarter came in better, David, cited better close-in demand and on board driving the beat.
但當我們認為第三季表現更好時,大衛指出,近期需求有所改善,並推動了成長。
I mean is there any reason that wouldn't be in the cards for the fourth quarter?
我的意思是,有什麼原因不會出現在第四季嗎?
Or are there near-term demand helps or noise, whether it's a new cycle or election that could be maybe driving additional conservatism?
或者是否存在短期需求幫助或噪音,無論是新周期還是選舉可能會推動更多的保守主義?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Look, we try to give you our best estimate of what's going to happen.
看,我們盡力為您提供將要發生的情況的最佳估計。
And do we always try to outperform?
我們是否總是試圖超越他人?
Absolutely.
絕對地。
That's the goal.
這就是目標。
There's nothing in particular about the fourth quarter other than what you said.
除了你說的以外,第四季沒有什麼特別的。
I mean right, the next month.
我的意思是,下個月。
A lot of attention is going to be focused on something other than normal.
很多注意力將集中在正常以外的事情上。
It happens every four years.
它每四年發生一次。
So we'll see what kind of impact that has.
所以我們將看看這會產生什麼樣的影響。
But the business is still going strong, and we expect a lot of ourselves.
但業務仍然強勁,我們對自己抱有很高的期望。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Yes.
是的。
And also keep in mind, with 99% of the ticket revenue for the gear already on the books, there's not a lot left to sell.
還要記住,99% 的裝備門票收入已經記入帳簿,沒有太多東西可以出售。
Dan Politzer - Analyst
Dan Politzer - Analyst
Right.
正確的。
That makes sense.
這是有道理的。
And then just for my follow-up.
然後只是為了我的後續行動。
In a couple of weeks, you're hosting some investors at board Sun Princess.
幾週後,Sun Princess 董事會將接待一些投資者。
Any way to kind of think about maybe framework and maybe kind of the key topics we should focus on?
有什麼方法可以思考我們應該關注的框架和關鍵主題嗎?
It seems like there's a lot of progress on SEA Change, your Celebration Key, maybe some of these cost opportunities or savings from easing inflation.
SEA Change 似乎取得了許多進展,您的慶祝鑰匙,也許其中一些成本機會或緩解通貨膨脹帶來的節省。
But what are the kind of the key high-level focus points we should be thinking about?
但我們應該考慮哪些關鍵的高層焦點?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
It's been -- it's been about 15 months since we got together for the first time to talk about what our priorities were and announced SEA Change.
自從我們第一次聚在一起討論我們的優先事項並宣布 SEA 變革以來,已經過去了大約 15 個月。
And think it's a good opportunity for us to just kind of level set on where we are and everything.
我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會,讓我們確定我們所處的位置和一切。
And hopefully, as you see it, the way we see it, which is the progress that we're making across the board.
希望正如您所看到的,我們所看到的,這就是我們正在全面取得的進展。
We also get an opportunity to showcase the Princess brand and specifically the Sun Princess, which is just a true game changer for Princess.
我們還有機會展示 Princess 品牌,特別是 Sun Princess,它是 Princess 真正的遊戲規則改變者。
And I'd say for the premium market, she's a remarkable ship and the team on board does a remarkable job.
我想說,對於高端市場來說,她是一艘非凡的船,船上的團隊也做得非常出色。
And you also get an opportunity, not just to hear from me, but he and David but you'll be able to hear from the President of that brand and to actually meet the presidents of pretty much all of our brands who will be there with us.
你還有機會,不僅能聽到我的聲音,還能聽到他和大衛的聲音,你還能聽到該品牌總裁的聲音,並能真正見到我們幾乎所有品牌的總裁,他們將與我們一起出席。
So good opportunity for you to get a little bit more educated and inundated by all things Carnival Corporation.
這是一個讓您接受更多教育並了解嘉年華公司所有事物的好機會。
Operator
Operator
Chris Stathoulopoulos, SIG.
克里斯·斯塔索洛普洛斯 (Chris Stathoulopoulos),SIG。
Chris Stathoulopoulos - Analyst
Chris Stathoulopoulos - Analyst
Good morning.
早安.
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
So Josh, I'm going to ask the demand question here in a different way.
喬希,我將以不同的方式提出需求問題。
As we think about global travel and tourism and think about different segments, if you will, within the ecosystem, so lodging airlines, hearing is sort of a different dynamic here as we think about demand, certainly within lodging, lower to middle income consumer, some concerns around price sensitivity little bit of a mixed bag in airlines.
當我們考慮全球旅行和旅遊並考慮生態系統內的不同細分市場時,例如住宿航空公司,當我們考慮需求時,當然是住宿業、中低收入消費者,航空公司對價格敏感性的一些擔憂有點複雜。
In Cruise Lines, this is unique here with what feels like this sort of persistent demand and just kind of ongoing momentum, if you will.
在郵輪公司中,這是獨一無二的,如果你願意的話,感覺就像是這種持續的需求和持續的動力。
Now I was wondering if you could rank order or think about the moving pieces as to the why.
現在我想知道你是否可以排列順序或思考移動的部分以及原因。
So there's the new-to-cruise piece, I would say perhaps a later reopening of certain markets, strong US dollar, discount to land-based trips, baseloading.
因此,有一個新的郵輪部分,我想說也許是稍後重新開放某些市場,強勢美元,陸上旅行折扣,基本裝載。
Just if you could help us provide -- help provide some context as we think about the moving parts of demand here.
如果您能幫助我們提供一些背景信息,當我們思考需求的變化部分時。
There's still some debate around whether this is any pent-up demand here, which I think is just not the case?
關於這是否是被壓抑的需求仍然存在一些爭論,我認為事實並非如此?
Or what -- is this actual base load going forward?
或者什麼-這個實際的基本負荷會持續下去?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Well, I guess the most affirmative thing I'll say is I completely agree with you, it's not pent-up demand anymore.
好吧,我想我要說的最肯定的是我完全同意你的觀點,這不再是被壓抑的需求了。
We've been sailing for over three years now.
我們已經航行了三年多了。
So I don't -- I think that, that is coming down.
所以我不認為——我認為,這種情況正在下降。
I'm not going to answer your question by rank ordering, but I would say that when it comes to all of industry.
我不會按排名來回答你的問題,但當涉及到整個行業時,我會這麼說。
I think we're all doing a pretty good job at that demand generation and creation and getting awareness, getting people interested in cruising who maybe have never thought about it before.
我認為我們在需求產生和創造以及提高意識方面都做得很好,讓人們對巡航感興趣,而他們以前可能從未考慮過這一點。
With respect to us, there is a lot of activity going on at all of our brands to really just try to do better and better at blocking and tackling when it comes to the commercial operations, right, generating new creative, generating more eyeballs in performance marketing looking for and then being looked at by the right potential customer, driving people to our trade partners, driving people to our websites, doing everything we can to just get the word out and get them interested.
就我們而言,我們所有的品牌都在進行很多活動,目的是在商業運營方面做得越來越好,產生新的創意,在表演中吸引更多眼球營銷尋找合適的潛在客戶,然後被合適的潛在客戶關注,吸引人們來到我們的貿易夥伴,吸引人們訪問我們的網站,盡一切努力傳播訊息並引起他們的興趣。
And I think that's part of what's driving us in a pretty significant way.
我認為這是推動我們前進的重要原因之一。
Chris Stathoulopoulos - Analyst
Chris Stathoulopoulos - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then as my follow-up, David.
然後是我的跟進者,大衛。
So my math here, I have about a point and a quarter on the adjusted NCCs for next year, and we can come up with our own assumptions, as you said, on inflation.
所以我在這裡計算,我對明年調整後的 NCC 大約有一個百分點又四分之一,我們可以提出我們自己的假設,正如你所說的,關於通貨膨脹。
But as we think about the other moving pieces here, puts and takes, on the advertising side, I know I think that's expected to be elevated in 4Q.
但當我們考慮這裡的其他移動部分時,在廣告方面,我知道我認為預計第四季度會有所提升。
Is there a reason?
有理由嗎?
Or how should we think about next year?
或者說我們該如何思考明年?
And do we need this level of advertising per ALBD to continue?
我們是否需要按照 ALBD 進行這種程度的廣告才能繼續下去?
Is it part of the base load book plan?
它是基本負荷書籍計劃的一部分嗎?
Or can we expect that to sort of get softer, if you will, as that initiative continues to take hold?
或者,如果您願意的話,隨著該倡議的繼續實施,我們是否可以期望這種情況會變得更加溫和?
Thanks.
謝謝。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah.
是的。
So the advertising as well as many other decisions are things that we really need to talk about over the next month or two in the planning process, which we're in the midst of doing.
因此,廣告以及許多其他決定是我們真正需要在未來一兩個月的規劃過程中討論的事情,我們正在做這個過程。
And we'll give guidance in December relative to all of those items.
我們將在 12 月提供與所有這些項目相關的指導。
It would be premature for us to be making a decision today exactly what we want to do, particularly for next summer or the back half of next year in advertising.
對我們來說,今天做出我們想要做什麼的決定還為時過早,特別是對於明年夏天或明年下半年的廣告業務。
So we'll give you more insight into that in three months.
因此,我們將在三個月內讓您更深入地了解這一點。
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
I'd just add a couple of things.
我只想補充幾件事。
One is, remember, we just talked about a record-setting 2026 booking period.
一是,請記住,我們剛剛討論了創紀錄的 2026 年預訂期。
We're not just booking for the short term.
我們不只是短期預訂。
We're booking for the long term and advertising is a combination of getting people to consider things for the longer term and getting the ships filled as we need to in the shorter term.
我們的預訂是長期的,廣告是讓人們考慮長期的事情和讓船舶在短期內滿足我們的需要的結合。
So the metric of just looking at it on an ALBD basis is, it's useful for benchmarking, but it's not too scientific.
因此,僅在 ALBD 基礎上查看它的指標是,它對於基準測試很有用,但不太科學。
It's really about how much bookings we want to generate and how we think we need to spend to go get it.
這實際上是關於我們想要產生多少預訂以及我們認為需要如何花費才能獲得預訂。
And I think we're doing a good job.
我認為我們做得很好。
And when you do look at rest of the benchmark basis, even though we're higher than we were back in 2019, and I think a couple of percent higher year-over-year, we're still quite a bit lower than most if not everyone.
當你確實考慮基準基礎的其餘部分時,即使我們的水平比 2019 年的水平要高,而且我認為同比高出幾個百分點,但如果不是每個人。
So we'll continue to be thoughtful about it and do what we think we need to do to drive the business.
因此,我們將繼續深思熟慮,並做我們認為需要做的事情來推動業務發展。
I think we got time for one more -- I think we've got time for one more if there are any more, operator.
我想我們還有時間再做一件事——我想我們還有時間再做一件事,如果還有的話,接線生。
Operator
Operator
Fred Wightman, Wolfe Research.
弗雷德‧懷特曼,沃爾夫研究公司。
Fred Wightman - Analyst
Fred Wightman - Analyst
I just wanted to come back to new to cruise, Josh.
我只是想回到新的郵輪,喬許。
I think you said that was up 17% this quarter.
我想你說過本季成長了 17%。
Last quarter, that was up 10%.
上個季度,這一數字成長了 10%。
So it's a pretty big acceleration per brand that's as big as you guys are.
所以對於像你們這樣大的品牌來說,這是一個相當大的加速。
Can you touch on -- what drove that?
你能談談——是什麼推動了這一點嗎?
Was there a reallocation of some of the ad spend?
是否重新分配了部分廣告支出?
And maybe how you think strategically that could sort of increase that penetration step from 2% to something larger as a percentage of total vacation spend?
也許您如何從策略角度考慮將滲透率從佔假期總支出的 2% 提高到更大的百分比?
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Josh Weinstein - President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Climate Officer, Executive Director
Yes.
是的。
So there's no one thing that's going to be the answer for driving new-to-cruise either.
因此,對於初次接觸郵輪的人來說,沒有任何一種方法可以解決這個問題。
It is that same combination of better advertising, the trade doing a great job, better usability of our websites.
這也是更好的廣告、出色的交易以及我們網站更好的可用性的相同組合。
I'd say Alaska in particular for this past year was off the charts.
我想說,阿拉斯加在過去的一年表現尤其出色。
It was absolutely phenomenal, and that tends to skew higher to new-to-cruise because -- if you're going to go to Alaska, which everybody should go do, the only way you can go see it is by a cruise ship to really appreciate it.
這絕對是驚人的,而且對於新遊輪來說往往會偏向更高,因為——如果你要去阿拉斯加,每個人都應該去,你能看到它的唯一方法就是乘坐遊輪真的很感激。
And the only way you should do that is by one of our brands because they do it amazingly, and we have more permits for Glacier Bay than anybody else, and we have the shoreside footprint that nobody else has and can replicate.
你應該做到這一點的唯一方法是使用我們的品牌之一,因為他們做得非常出色,而且我們比其他任何人都擁有更多的冰川灣許可證,而且我們擁有其他人沒有也無法複製的岸邊足跡。
So that has served us very, very well.
所以這對我們非常非常有幫助。
And I'd say it's the same things that you've heard me talk about in the past quarters that hopefully, I'll continue to talk about in the quarters to come about just doing the basics better.
我想說,這與您在過去幾個季度中聽到我談論的事情是一樣的,希望我會在接下來的幾個季度中繼續談論,只是把基礎知識做得更好。
I appreciate it.
我很感激。
Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us and look forward to talking again in a few months for those of you that I don't see next week.
好的,謝謝大家加入我們,並期待在幾個月後再次為那些我下週見不到的人進行交談。
Take care.
小心。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
This concludes today's conference call.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
You may disconnect your lines at this time.
此時您可以斷開線路。
Thank you for your participation.
感謝您的參與。