嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation and plc fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加嘉年華公司和 plc 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Beth.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁貝絲·羅伯茨(Beth Roberts)。請繼續，貝絲。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天我們的執行長喬許·韋恩斯坦 (Josh Weinstein) 也加入了我的行列。我們的財務長大衛·伯恩斯坦；還有我們的主席米基·阿里森。

Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to the forward-looking statement in today's press release. All references to ticket prices, net per diems, net yields and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated.

在我們開始之前，請注意，我們在本次電話會議上的一些評論將具有前瞻性。因此，我將向您推薦今天新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明。除非另有說明，所有提及的票價、每日淨津貼、淨收益和調整後不含燃料的遊輪成本均採用固定匯率。

References to per diems and yields will be on a net basis. Our comments may also reference cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, free cash flow and ROIC, all of which will be on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise stated. All these references are non-GAAP financial measures defined in our earnings press release.

每日津貼和收益率的參考將基於淨值。我們的評論也可能參考不含燃油的遊輪成本、EBITDA、淨利潤、自由現金流和ROIC，除非另有說明，所有這些都將在調整後的基礎上進行。所有這些參考資料都是我們的收益新聞稿中定義的非公認會計準則財務指標。

A reconciliation to the most directly comparable US GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are also contained in our earnings press release and in our investor presentation. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.

我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹中還包含與最直接可比較的美國公認會計原則財務指標和其他相關揭露的調節。請造訪我們的公司網站，在那裡可以找到我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給喬希。

Thanks, Beth. We had a strong finish to an incredibly strong year. And right off the bat, I'd like to thank the efforts of our hard-working and dedicated team, the best in all of travel and leisure.

謝謝，貝絲。我們以強勁的表現結束了令人難以置信的強勁一年。首先，我要感謝我們辛勤工作、敬業的團隊所付出的努力，他們是旅行和休閒領域中最好的團隊。

They have delivered results that consistently outperformed even my own high expectations. Our global portfolio is clearly firing on all cylinders, and I am very proud of what we've been able to accomplish together. We delivered another stellar quarter to close out a phenomenal year.

他們所取得的成果始終超越了我自己的高期望。我們的全球投資組合顯然正在全速運轉，我對我們能夠共同達成的成就感到非常自豪。我們又交付了一個出色的季度，為非凡的一年畫下圓滿的句點。

In fact, this was our seventh consecutive quarter, achieving record revenues alongside favorable forward indicators, like record booking trends and record customer deposits, indicating a continuation of the strong momentum we've been experiencing for the last two years.

事實上，這是我們連續第七個季度實現創紀錄的收入以及有利的前瞻性指標，例如創紀錄的預訂趨勢和創紀錄的客戶存款，表明我們過去兩年的強勁勢頭仍在繼續。

Fourth quarter net income improved by over $250 million year over year, coming in over $125 million better than expected. The outperformance was up and down the P&L and driven by strong closing demand across the portfolio, which pushed yields, per diems, EBITDA and operating income all to new highs this year.

第四季淨利潤年增超過 2.5 億美元，優於預期超過 1.25 億美元。業績表現優於損益表，並受到整個投資組合強勁的結算需求的推動，這將收益率、每日津貼、息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 和營業收入今年全部推至新高。

Full year revenues hit an all-time high of $25 billion and produced all-time high cash from operations of almost $6 billion. Robust demand delivered a full year 2024 yield increase of 11%, with the majority of the increase attributable to higher prices.

全年收入達到 250 億美元的歷史新高，營運產生的現金接近 60 億美元，創歷史新高。強勁的需求使 2024 年全年收益率成長了 11%，其中大部分成長歸因於價格上漲。

Yields finished the year nearly 250 basis points better than our original guidance, driven by a strong demand environment that we elevated throughout the year. Encouragingly, this was broad-based. For 2024, prices were up in all of our major brands and trades between mid-single digit to mid-teen percentages.

在我們全年提升的強勁需求環境的推動下，今年的收益率比我們最初的指引高出近 250 個基點。令人鼓舞的是，這是基礎廣泛的。 2024 年，我們所有主要品牌的價格均上漲，漲幅在個位數到中位數百分比之間。

And on top of this, onboard spending levels actually accelerated sequentially each quarter throughout the year. Additionally, unit cost came in 100 basis points better than our original guidance for the year as we identified and executed upon additional cost savings initiatives and saw the benefit of an easing inflationary environment.

除此之外，船上支出水準實際上全年每季都在逐年加速。此外，單位成本比我們今年最初的指導高出 100 個基點，因為我們確定並執行了額外的成本節約舉措，並看到了寬鬆的通膨環境的好處。

All of this translated to an additional $700 million pickup to the bottom line compared to our December guidance and step change improvements in our two financial metrics that form part of our 2026 SEA Change targets, EBITDA per ALBD and ROIC.

與我們12 月的指導相比，所有這些都意味著利潤增加了7 億美元，而我們的兩個財務指標（每個ALBD 的EBITDA 和ROIC）構成了2026 年SEA 變更目標的一部分，並逐步進行了改進。

After just one year down, with two to go, we're already over 80% of the way toward achieving both of these targets, calling for a 50% increase in EBITDA per ALBD from our 2023 starting point and ROIC of 12%, both of which would be the highest the company has seen in almost 20 years. And with ROIC ending 2024 at 11%, comfortably above our cost of capital, we are already delivering long-term value for our shareholders as we lay the foundation, we'll build upon in 2025 and beyond.

僅僅一年後，還有兩年時間，我們已經完成了這兩個目標的 80% 以上，要求每 ALBD 的 EBITDA 比 2023 年的起點增加 50%，ROIC 增加 12%。年來的最高水準。截至 2024 年，ROIC 為 11%，遠高於我們的資本成本，我們已經為股東創造了長期價值，並奠定了基礎，我們將在 2025 年及以後繼續發展。

At the outset, and with about two-thirds of the year already on the books, 2025 is shaping up to be another banner year with yield growth exceeding 4%, far outpacing historical growth rates and again exceeding unit cost growth delivering more than $400 million incrementally to the bottom line. In fact, booking trends even accelerated during the quarter.

從一開始，由於今年約三分之二的時間已經入帳，2025 年將成為另一個標誌性的一年，收益率增長超過4%，遠遠超過歷史增長率，並再次超過單位成本增長，帶來超過4 億美元的收益逐步達到底線。事實上，本季的預訂趨勢甚至有所加速。

Despite less inventory for sale as compared to same time last year, 2025 booking volumes over the quarter were actually higher year on year at higher prices for each quarter, including the period leading up to the election. Booking volumes for 2026 also continue to break records, reflecting sustained demand even for further out sailings.

儘管與去年同期相比，待售庫存有所減少，但 2025 年該季度的預訂量實際上同比有所增加，每個季度的價格也更高，包括選舉前的時期。 2026 年的預訂量也持續打破紀錄，反映出對更遠航程的持續需求。

The ongoing strength in demand reinforced our record-breaking book position. Both price and occupancy are higher for each of the four quarters of 2025, and we managed to increase both our price and occupancy advantage for our 2025 book position, thanks to our outstanding efforts this past quarter.

持續強勁的需求鞏固了我們破紀錄的帳面狀況。 2025 年四個季度的價格和入住率均較高，得益於上一季的出色努力，我們成功提高了 2025 年預訂位置的價格和入住率優勢。

I can actually now report that our North American and European segments are each at their longest advanced booking windows on record. All core deployments are also better booked at higher prices than the record levels we achieved at the same time last year.

事實上，我現在可以報告說，我們的北美和歐洲部分都處於有史以來最長的提前預訂窗口。所有核心部署的預訂價格也比我們去年同期達到的創紀錄水準更高。

So with a good amount less inventory to sell for 2025, I cannot stress enough to our customers and trade partners that if you want to sail with us this year, book now while there's still space available. And keep in mind, our 2024 results and booked position for future sailings are being driven by improved operational execution across our brands and are essentially on a same-ship basis.

因此，由於 2025 年的庫存量將大幅減少，我無法向我們的客戶和貿易夥伴強調，如果您今年想與我們一起航行，請趁仍有空位時立即預訂。請記住，我們 2024 年的業績和未來航行的預訂位置是由我們各品牌營運執行力的改善所推動的，基本上是在同船基礎上進行的。

Now don't get me wrong, new ships are great. In fact, we welcomed three amazing new ships in 2024. Carnival Jubilee, the third of five Excel class vessels for Carnival Cruise Line, is proudly sailing out of the great state of Texas.

別誤會我的意思，新船很棒。事實上，我們在 2024 年迎來了三艘令人驚嘆的新船。

Sun Princess, Princess Cruises next-generation flagship was just awarded Condé Nast Traveler's 2024 megaship of the year, beating out all other megaships that entered service this year. And last but not least, came the spectacular Queen Anne, Cunard's first ship in 14 years and a beautiful addition to Queen Victoria, Queen Elizabeth and the venerable Queen Mary 2.

公主郵輪的下一代旗艦太陽公主號剛剛擊敗了今年投入運營的所有其他巨型郵輪，榮獲《Condé Nast Traveler》2024 年度最佳巨型郵輪獎。最後但並非最不重要的，是壯觀的安妮女王號，這是冠達公司 14 年來的第一艘船，也是維多利亞女王號、伊麗莎白女王號和令人尊敬的瑪麗女王 2 號的美麗補充。

While new ships do command a nice premium, the vast majority of our yield growth was driven by fundamental demand improvements for the existing ships across our portfolio of world-class brands. Even excluding our new builds, 2024s yields were still up almost 10% over 2023.

雖然新船確實有不錯的溢價，但我們的產量成長絕大多數是由我們世界級品牌組合中現有船舶的基本需求改善所推動的。即使不包括我們的新建項目，2024 年的收益率仍比 2023 年增長近 10%。

That's because we're achieving demand growth well above our modest supply pipeline through ground-up efforts to improve execution across the commercial space. We've been investing in both talent and tools honing in on each of our brands' unique target markets, crafting marketing campaigns that speak directly to them and in the most effective forums.

這是因為，透過從根本上提高整個商業領域執行力的努力，我們實現的需求成長遠高於我們適度的供應管道。我們一直在人才和工具方面進行投資，針對每個品牌獨特的目標市場進行磨練，在最有效的論壇上精心策劃與他們直接對話的行銷活動。

We're successfully enticing new cruise guests away from land-based alternatives. In fact, both new-to-cruise and repeat guests were each up double-digit percentages this past year. At the same time, our marketing efforts are continuing to deliver growth in web visits, natural and paid search that far outpaced our limited capacity growth, keeping the pipeline of new demand full.

我們成功地吸引了新的遊輪客人遠離陸地替代品。事實上，去年郵輪新客和回頭客的百分比均增加了兩位數。同時，我們的行銷工作正在繼續推動網路訪問量、自然搜尋和付費搜尋的成長，遠遠超過我們有限的容量成長，從而保持新需求的管道充足。

Simultaneously with augmenting our performance from top of funnel consideration to closing the deal and generating the bookings, we've been sharpening our yield management techniques to optimize our booking curves and drive ticket prices and onboard spending higher. While all of these efforts are already in flight and clearly working, we have even more in store to continue the momentum.

在從管道頂部考慮到完成交易和產生預訂的過程中提高我們的績效的同時，我們一直在加強收益管理技術，以優化我們的預訂曲線並推高機票價格和機上支出。雖然所有這些努力都已經在進行中並且明顯發揮了作用，但我們還有更多的準備來繼續這一勢頭。

We're launching new marketing campaigns across all our brands. Princess, Cunard and Seaborne have already debuted spectacular new creatives this month. In Princess' case, it's fresh take on its incomparable Love Boat theme featuring Hannah-Waddingham of Ted Lasso fam already helped to produce record booking volumes for the Black Friday through Cyber Monday period.

我們正在為所有品牌推出新的行銷活動。 Princess、Cunard 和 Seaborne 本月已經推出了精彩的新創意。以 Princess 為例，它以 Ted Lasso 家族的 Hannah-Waddingham 為主角，對其無與倫比的 Love Boat 主題進行了全新演繹，已經幫助創造了黑色星期五到網絡星期一期間的預訂量記錄。

And stay tuned for new campaigns from AIDA, Carnival, Costa, Holland America and P&O Cruises in the UK, all launching shortly to coincide with wave season, our peak booking period. We're aggressively working to increase awareness and consideration for cruise travel globally.

請繼續關注 AIDA、Carnival、Costa、Holland America 和 P&O Cruises 在英國的新活動，所有這些活動都將在我們預訂高峰期的旺季即將推出。我們正積極努力提高全球對郵輪旅行的認識和考慮。

We're also actively working on an enhanced destination strategy to provide guests with yet another reason to take a cruise vacation with us, and that is sure to help us continue to excel. While we retain, by far, the largest footprint in the Caribbean with six owned and operated destinations that captured 6.5 million guest visits in 2024, we believe we have a meaningful opportunity to expand and capitalize on this strategic advantage.

我們也積極制定增強的目的地策略，為客人提供與我們一起進行郵輪假期的另一個理由，這肯定會幫助我們繼續表現出色。到目前為止，我們仍然是加勒比地區最大的足跡，擁有和經營六個目的地，到2024 年接待了650 萬名遊客，但我們相信，我們有一個有意義的機會來擴大和利用這一戰略優勢。

These destinations are amongst our highest rated guest experiences today and with plans to lean into these assets even further. While historically, the marketing of our own assets have really focused on the ships, we have untapped potential to create demand for these amazing destination experiences. I have never been more excited about these prospects as we begin to unfold this multiyear strategy with the opening of Celebration Key in just about six months.

這些目的地是我們當今評價最高的賓客體驗之一，並計劃進一步利用這些資產。雖然從歷史上看，我們自己的資產行銷實際上主要集中在船舶上，但我們還有尚未開發的潛力來創造對這些令人驚嘆的目的地體驗的需求。當我們開始展開這項多年策略並在短短六個月內開設 Celebration Key 時，我對這些前景感到前所未有的興奮。

This will be, by far, our largest and most Carnival-centric destination in our portfolio with five awesome portals built for fun from family-friendly to exclusive Beach Club experiences. Not only will Celebration Key be the closest destination in our portfolio, saving fuel costs and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the only way you can get the Celebration Key is on one of our cruises.

到目前為止，這將是我們投資組合中最大、最以嘉年華為中心的目的地，擁有五個令人驚嘆的門戶網站，專為從家庭友好型到獨特的海灘俱樂部體驗等樂趣而打造。 Celebration Key 不僅將成為我們產品組合中最近的目的地，從而節省燃油成本並減少溫室氣體排放，而且您獲得 Celebration Key 的唯一途徑就是乘坐我們的其中一艘遊輪。

Moreover, we just recently announced a change that signals more about the shift in our destination asset strategy. Half Moon Cay, the highly rated and award-winning exclusive bohemian destination known for beautiful beaches and crystal clear waters, is being renamed RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay to better reflect the experience guests can expect as they are immersed in this tropical paradise.

此外，我們最近剛剛宣布了一項變化，這更表明我們目的地資產策略的轉變。半月島(Half Moon Cay) 是備受好評且屢獲殊榮的獨特波西米亞度假勝地，以美麗的海灘和清澈見底的海水而聞名，現已更名為“半月島RelaxAway”，以更好地體現賓客在沉浸在這個熱帶天堂時所期待的體驗。

Enhancements will include an expanded beachfront experience, lunch venues, a variety of bars and other features created with intentionality to reinforce this destination's natural beauty and pristine appeal. Ready in November of 2026, a newly constructed peer on the North side will allow two ships to dock including Carnival's Excel class ships that will be able to visit the private island for the first time.

增強功能將包括擴大海濱體驗、午餐場所、各種酒吧和其他有意打造的特色，以增強該目的地的自然美景和原始吸引力。北側新建的一個港口將於 2026 年 11 月準備就緒，將允許兩艘船停靠，其中包括嘉年華的 Excel 級船舶，這些船舶將能夠首次訪問這座私人島嶼。

We'll be positioning these jewels of the Caribbean with consumers in a way that will encourage guests to actively seek out these specific destinations offered exclusively by our brands. And many of Carnival Cruise Lines itineraries will feature both RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay and Celebration Key, providing guests with complementary experiences enjoying both the idelic and the ultimate beach days.

我們將向消費者展示這些加勒比海的瑰寶，鼓勵客人積極尋找我們品牌獨家提供的這些特定目的地。嘉年華遊輪公司的許多航線都將同時提供 RelaxAway、Half Moon Cay 和 Celebration Key 航線，為客人提供互補的體驗，享受理想的海灘時光和終極的海灘時光。

We believe developing and promoting these unique assets will help us cast the net wider and capture even more new-to-cruise demand. We're already in flight with preparation for branding and marketing campaigns for these amazing destinations with more to come in the future.

我們相信，開發和推廣這些獨特的資產將有助於我們擴大網路並捕捉更多新的郵輪需求。我們已經開始為這些令人驚嘆的目的地進行品牌推廣和行銷活動做準備，未來還會有更多目的地。

As it is, for 2025, we expect to hit our 2026 EBITDA per ALBD target a full year early, while raising ROIC to just shy of our 12% 2026 target. So considering all the progress we've made without this in place, it's clear we have a tremendous amount of headroom remaining to create more demand to cultivate more guest loyalty and capture more pricing for the incredible ship and shoreside experiences we provide our guests.

事實上，到 2025 年，我們預計提前一整年實現 2026 年 EBITDA/ALBD 目標，同時將 ROIC 提高到略低於我們 2026 年 12% 的目標。因此，考慮到我們在沒有做到這一點的情況下所取得的所有進展，很明顯，我們還有巨大的空間來創造更多的需求，培養更多的客人忠誠度，並為我們為客人提供的令人難以置信的船上和岸邊體驗獲得更多的價格。

At the same time, we're making meaningful progress on the sustainability front. We achieved about 17.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions intensity versus 2019, on track to achieve our target of 20% by the end of 2026, a goal that was previously pulled forward by four years.

同時，我們在永續發展方面取得了有意義的進展。與 2019 年相比，我們的溫室氣體排放強度減少了約 17.5%，預計在 2026 年底前實現 20% 的目標，這一目標之前提前了四年。

Improvement hasn't just been in emission intensity levels. Despite the fact that we're over 9% larger than we were in 2019, we have actually lowered our absolute greenhouse gas emissions by almost 10% over this time. And of course, we're also making huge strides on rebuilding our financial fortress.

改善不僅體現在排放強度水準。儘管我們的排放量比 2019 年增加了 9% 以上，但在此期間我們的絕對溫室氣體排放量實際上降低了近 10%。當然，我們在重建金融堡壘方面也取得了巨大進展。

In under two years, we have paid down over $8 billion of debt off our peak and significantly reduced interest expense, which, coupled with our improving EBITDA, has improved our leverage metrics tremendously. Our current 2025 guidance will put us at 3.8 times net debt to EBITDA, closing in on our expectation to reach investment grade leverage metrics in 2026.

在不到兩年的時間裡，我們比高峰還清了超過 80 億美元的債務，並顯著降低了利息支出，再加上我們不斷改善的 EBITDA，大大改善了我們的槓桿指標。我們目前的 2025 年指引將使我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 比率達到 3.8 倍，接近我們在 2026 年達到投資等級槓桿指標的預期。

Again, thank you so much to each of our team members who have delivered a step change improvement in 2024 and set us up for a fantastic 2025 and beyond. And as has always been the case and always will be, thank you so much to our travel agent partners who have contributed immensely to this success.

再次，非常感謝我們的每一位團隊成員，他們在 2024 年實現了重大變革，為我們在 2025 年及以後的美好未來奠定了基礎。一如既往，也將永遠如此，非常感謝我們的旅行社合作夥伴，他們為這項成功做出了巨大貢獻。

We also appreciate the support we've received from our loyal guests investors, destination partners and other stakeholders. And let's not forget, these efforts were really all about the main thing: delivering unforgettable happiness to over 13.5 million people in 2024 by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sell, place revisit and life we touch.

我們也感謝忠實賓客、投資者、目的地合作夥伴和其他利害關係人的支持。我們不要忘記，這些努力的真正目的都是為了：到2024 年，為超過1350 萬人提供非凡的郵輪假期，為他們帶來難忘的幸福，同時尊重我們銷售的每片海洋、重訪的地方和我們接觸的生活的完整性。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

這樣，我就把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our 2024 fourth quarter results. Next, I will provide an update on our refinancing and deleveraging efforts. Then I'll finish up with some color on our 2025 full year December guidance. Let's turn to the summary of our fourth quarter results.

謝謝你，喬許。今天我將先總結 2024 年第四季的業績。接下來，我將介紹我們再融資和去槓桿工作的最新情況。然後我將對 2025 年全年 12 月指導進行一些闡述。讓我們來總結一下第四季的業績。

Net income exceeded September guidance by $126 million as we outperformed once again. The outperformance was essentially driven by three things: first, favorability in revenue were $77 million as yields came in up 6.7% compared to the prior year. This was 1.7 points better than September guidance, driven by close-in strength in ticket prices as well as strong onboard spending.

淨利潤超出 9 月指導價值 1.26 億美元，我們的業績再次跑贏大盤。業績優異主要是由三件事推動的：首先，收益為 7,700 萬美元，收益率較上年增長 6.7%。這比 9 月的指導值高出 1.7 個百分點，這得益於機票價格的接近上漲以及強勁的機上支出。

Second, cruise cost without fuel per available lower berth day or ALBD, came in up 7.4% compared to the prior year. This was 0.6 of a point better than September guidance, which was worth $13 million. And third, favorability in interest expense, other income and expense and tax expense all of which were partially offset by higher fuel prices netted to a $38 million improvement.

其次，每個可用下舖日或 ALBD 不含燃油的遊輪成本比前一年增長了 7.4%。這比 9 月的指導值（價值 1,300 萬美元）高出 0.6 個百分點。第三，利息支出、其他收入和支出以及稅收支出方面的優惠，所有這些都被燃油價格上漲部分抵消，淨收益增加了 3,800 萬美元。

Per diems for the fourth quarter improved over 5% versus the prior year, which I would remind you were up over 10% last year with improvements on both sides of the Atlantic, driven by higher ticket prices and improved onboard spending. Strong demand allowed us to once again report records, delivering fourth quarter record revenues, record yields, record per diems, record adjusted EBITDA and record customer deposits.

第四季的每日津貼比去年同期提高了5% 以上，我想提醒一下，去年的每日津貼增長了10% 以上，在機票價格上漲和船上支出增加的推動下，大西洋兩岸的情況有所改善。強勁的需求使我們再次創下了第四季度創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的收益率、創紀錄的每日津貼、創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 和創紀錄的客戶存款。

Next, I will provide an update of our refinancing and deleveraging efforts. Our full year 2024 yield improvement of 11% was over three times or 3.5% cost increase. This drove improved margins and cash flow which resulted in a strong EBITDA of $6.1 billion and cash from operations of about $6 billion. All of this propelled us on our journey to pay down debt and proactively manage our debt profile.

接下來，我將介紹我們再融資和去槓桿工作的最新情況。我們 2024 年全年產量提高了 11%，是成本增幅的三倍多，即 3.5%。這推動了利潤率和現金流的改善，實現了 61 億美元的強勁 EBITDA 和約 60 億美元的營運現金。所有這些都推動我們踏上償還債務和主動管理債務狀況的旅程。

During 2024, we made debt payments of over $5 billion, which included opportunistically prepaying over $3 billion of debt, reducing secured debt, removing the secured second lien layer from our capital structure and paying off some of our more expensive debt. We ended 2024 with $27.5 billion of debt, over $8 billion off the January 2023 peak.

2024 年，我們支付了超過50 億美元的債務，其中包括機會性地提前償還超過30 億美元的債務、減少擔保債務、從我們的資本結構中刪除有擔保的第二留置權層以及償還一些更昂貴的債務。截至 2024 年，我們的債務為 275 億美元，比 2023 年 1 月的最高點減少了 80 億美元。

Our leverage metrics continue to improve in 2024 as our EBITDA continued to grow, and our debt levels continue to shrink. We achieved a 4.3 times net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, nearly a 2.5 turn improvement from 2023, positioning us (inaudible) the way down the path to investment grade leverage metrics in just one year.

隨著我們的 EBITDA 持續成長，債務水準持續下降，我們的槓桿指標將在 2024 年繼續改善。我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 比率達到了 4.3 倍，比 2023 年提高了近 2.5 倍，使我們（聽不清楚）在短短一年內就走上了投資級槓桿指標的道路。

With the benefit of well-managed near-term maturity towers and improve leverage metrics, we expect to opportunistically capitalize on improved interest rates while proactively managing our maturity towers for 2027 and beyond with various refinancings. Now I'll finish up with some color on our 2025 full year December guidance.

憑藉著管理良好的近期到期塔和改善的槓桿指標，我們預計將機會性地利用利率提高的機會，同時透過各種再融資積極管理 2027 年及以後的到期塔。現在，我將對 2025 年全年 12 月指導進行一些闡述。

On top of 2024s 11% yield growth, we are expecting to deliver strong 2025 yield improvement with our guidance forecasting an increase of approximately 4.2% worth over $0.60 per share when compared to 2024. The strong improvement in 2025 yields is a result of an increase in higher ticket prices higher onboard spending and to a lesser degree, higher occupancy with all three components improving on both sides of the Atlantic.

除了2024 年11% 的收益率成長之外，我們預計2025 年收益率將強勁改善，我們的指導預測與2024 年相比將增長約4.2%，每股收益超過0.60 美元。改善是由於增長大西洋兩岸的機票價格上漲導致船上支出增加，並且在較小程度上提高了所有三個組成部分的入住率。

We are well positioned to drive 2025 ticket pricing higher with significantly less inventory remaining to sell than the same time last year. Now turning to costs. Cruise costs without fuel per ALBD is expected to be up approximately 3.7%, costing $0.28 per share for 2025 versus 2024. We are looking forward to the introduction of our game-changing exclusive bohemian destination Celebration Key in July 2025.

我們處於有利位置，可以推動 2025 年門票價格上漲，且剩餘待售庫存比去年同期大幅減少。現在轉向成本。與2024 年相比，2025 年每ALBD 不含燃油的遊輪成本預計將上漲約3.7%，每股成本為0.28 美元。 Key。

We anticipate that Celebration Key will be a smash hit with our guests and provide an excellent return on our investment. However, operating expenses for the destination will impact our overall year-over-year cost comparisons by about 0.5 point. In 2025, we are expecting 687 dry dock days, an increase of 17% versus 2024, which will also impact our overall year-over-year cost comparisons by about 0.75 point.

我們預計 Celebration Key 將受到客人的熱烈歡迎，並為我們的投資帶來豐厚的回報。然而，目的地的營運費用將影響我們的整體年比成本比較約 0.5 個百分點。 2025 年，我們預計乾船塢天數為 687 天，比 2024 年增加 17%，也將影響我們的整體年比成本比較約 0.75 個百分點。

In 2024, there were several onetime items that we benefited from impacting our overall year-over-year cost comparisons by about 0.25 point. The remaining 2.2 point increase in cruise costs are driven by inflation and higher advertising expense, partially offset by efficiency initiatives and further leveraging our industry-leading scale.

2024 年，有幾個一次性項目使我們的整體成本比去年同期下降了約 0.25 個百分點，從而使我們受益匪淺。遊輪成本剩餘的 2.2 個百分點的增長是由通貨膨脹和廣告費用上漲推動的，但部分被效率舉措和進一步利用我們行業領先的規模所抵消。

An increase in depreciation expense and lower interest income is partially offset by an improvement in interest expense from our refinancing and deleveraging efforts for a net impact of $0.04 per share. The net impact of fuel price and currency is expected to favorably impact 2025 by approximately $0.04 per share, with fuel prices favorable by approximately $0.09 per share, while the change in foreign currency exchange rate goes the other way by $0.05 per share.

折舊費用的增加和利息收入的下降被我們的再融資和去槓桿化努力帶來的利息費用的改善所部分抵消，每股淨影響為 0.04 美元。燃料價格和貨幣的淨影響預計將對 2025 年產生約每股 0.04 美元的有利影響，其中燃料價格有利每股約 0.09 美元，而外幣匯率的變化則相反，影響每股約 0.05 美元。

Let's not forget that the European Union Allowance or EUA regulation in 2025 increases to 70% of carbon emissions from 40% in 2024. As a result, we would expect the impact of higher EUA costs on our year-over-year fuel expense to be about $0.03 per share.

我們不要忘記，到 2025 年，歐盟配額或 EUA 法規將碳排放量從 2024 年的 40% 增加到 70%。

In summary, putting all these factors together, our net income guidance for full year 2025 is over $2.3 billion, an improvement of more than $400 million versus 2024 or $0.28 per share. Robust demand for our brands and continued operational execution is driving our strong financial results along with our increased confidence in achieving investment grade leverage metrics during the next couple of years as we move further down the road, rebuilding our financial fortress while continuing the process of transferring value from debt holders back to shareholders.

總之，將所有這些因素放在一起，我們對 2025 年全年的淨利潤指導超過 23 億美元，比 2024 年增加超過 4 億美元，即每股增加 0.28 美元。對我們品牌的強勁需求和持續的營運執行正在推動我們強勁的財務業績，隨著我們在未來幾年內實現投資級槓桿指標的信心不斷增強，我們將繼續前進，重建我們的金融堡壘，同時繼續轉移過程將債務持有人的價值返還給股東。

Now operator, let's open the call for questions.

現在接線員，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）Matthew Boss，摩根大通。

And congrats on another great quarter. So Josh, could you elaborate on the foundation that you've laid over the last two years, which you think has positioned you in the company to capitalize on the current demand that you're seeing? And with '25 shaping up to be another banner year, could you speak to initiatives across the organization to take share, optimize yields and drive onboard spending in '25 and beyond?

恭喜又一個偉大的季度。喬希，您能否詳細說明您在過去兩年中所奠定的基礎，您認為這些基礎使您在公司中能夠利用您所看到的當前需求？隨著 25 年將成為另一個標誌性的一年，您能否談談整個組織在 25 年及以後爭取份額、優化收益和推動船上支出的舉措？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Matt. I guess if we look back at the last two years, probably the biggest thing was just doing a bit of restructuring, as we've talked about in the past and getting the right leaders in place, leading the brands, and those leaders are a fantastic group of people leading fantastic brands.

是的。謝謝你的提問，馬特。我想，如果我們回顧過去兩年，最重要的事情可能就是進行一些重組，正如我們過去談到的那樣，讓合適的領導者就位，領導品牌，而這些領導者是一群出色的人領導著出色的品牌。

On the commercial focus side, which we've been talking about for the last few years, right? It is scrutiny and expectations around how we're improving in the revenue management space, in the marketing space, considerations at top of funnel stuff all the way down to closing the bookings.

在商業焦點方面，我們過去幾年一直在談論，對嗎？這是圍繞我們如何改善收入管理領域、行銷領域、漏斗頂部的考慮因素一直到完成預訂的審查和期望。

The amount of advertising that we've ramped up really just to get us closer to where the rest of the market is, I think, is helping to pay dividends. Everything from making sure our brands have great relationships with the trade to investing in our own capabilities.

我認為，我們增加的廣告量實際上只是為了讓我們更接近市場其他部分，這有助於支付股息。從確保我們的品牌與行業建立良好的關係到投資自己的能力，一切都是如此。

Probably the last thing about the foundation would be the portfolio management. We've been actively managing the portfolio and allocating ships differently, moving vessels, widening up a brand in the case of P&O Australia, I think it's setting ourselves up to really put the assets where the highest returns are in the immediate term, while we help all the brands who aren't yet where I think they should be get to those levels.

關於基金會的最後一件事可能是投資組合管理。我們一直在積極管理投資組合併以不同的方式分配船舶，移動船舶，以 P&O Australia 為例擴大品牌，我認為我們正在做好準備，真正將資產放在短期內回報率最高的地方，而我們幫助所有尚未達到我認為應該達到的水平的品牌。

So with respect to 2025 and what are the things that we've got that are going to continue our progress. At a base level, it's a continuation of all those things in the commercial space and having those great brand leaders really lean in even further. We're investing in our people.

那麼，到 2025 年，我們有哪些東西可以繼續取得進展。從根本上來說，這是商業領域所有這些事情的延續，並且讓那些偉大的品牌領導者真正進一步傾斜。我們正在投資我們的員工。

We're investing in our tools, our revenue management tools to make sure that we are utilizing the technology effectively to optimize the yields the destination strategy that you already heard in the prepared remarks, I think that's going to be a tailwind that continues for a really long time, and we're really looking forward to that.

我們正在投資我們的工具，我們的收入管理工具，以確保我們有效地利用該技術來優化您在準備好的發言中已經聽到的目的地策略的收益，我認為這將成為持續的順風。真的很久了，我們真的很期待。

As far as the OBR, onboard spending, we've got runway there. I mean we've got a good amount of runway to continue the progress we've been making around pulling forward the spend, which, as everybody knows, opens up the second wallet and the more people spend before they get on the cruise, the more they spend on the cruise.

就 OBR（機上支出）而言，我們已經有跑道了。我的意思是，我們有足夠的空間來繼續我們在拉動支出方面取得的進展，眾所周知，這打開了第二個錢包，人們在登上郵輪之前花的錢越多，他們在遊輪上花費更多。

So our brands are, again, working hard to continue that. And we're nowhere near what the cap could be on those types of efforts. So I'm pretty enthusiastic as you can probably tell.

因此，我們的品牌再次努力繼續這一目標。我們還遠遠沒有達到這些類型努力的上限。所以你可能看得出來，我非常熱情。

I can tell. I can tell. And then, David, maybe just quick, if you could just break down net cruise cost ex fuel components in that 3.7% for this year? But I think more so, help us to think about maybe a reasonable spread between yields and cruise costs multiyear, if there's maybe a back of the envelope rule of thumb multiyear?

我可以告訴。我可以告訴。然後，大衛，也許很快，你是否可以將今年扣除燃料成分的淨遊輪成本細分為 3.7%？但我認為更重要的是，幫助我們思考多年收益率和遊輪成本之間的合理價差，是否可能存在多年的經驗法則？

Yes. So I did in my notes, talk about the 37 because just briefly, the expenses relating to Celebration Key were 0.5 point, increase in dry dock days was 0.75 point. I also said about 0.25 point was the onetime items that we benefit from in 2024 and then the remaining 2.2 points really was a combination of inflation and higher advertising that Josh mentioned, partially offset by efficiency initiatives and other leveraging our scale throughout the company.

是的。所以我在筆記中談到了 37，因為簡單地說，與 Celebration Key 相關的費用為 0.5 個點，乾船塢天數的增加為 0.75 個點。我還說過，大約0.25 個百分點是我們在2024 年受益的一次性項目，然後剩下的2.2 個百分點實際上是喬希提到的通膨和更高廣告的結合，部分被效率舉措和其他利用我們整個公司規模的舉措所抵銷。

So those are really the four key components that make up the 3.7. As far as the difference, I don't think there's any rule of thumb here. I really do believe we can continue. As you saw in 2024, it was 3 times, but that was a recovery story. Our guidance has a 0.5 point difference between the yield improvement and a cost improvement. Keep in mind that a point to yield is worth almost double what a point of cost is.

這些實際上是構成 3.7 的四個關鍵組件。至於差異，我認為這裡沒有任何經驗法則。我真的相信我們可以繼續下去。正如你在 2024 年看到的那樣，是 3 倍，但那是一個復甦的故事。我們的指導意見在產量改善和成本改善之間存在 0.5 個百分點的差異。請記住，收益率點的價值幾乎是成本點的兩倍。

So there is leverage there in and of itself. But we will work hard to continue to maintain our cost consciousness. And as Josh talked about, all the things we're investing in, in advertising and revenue management should help drive yields higher over time as well as the destination strategy. So we do expect to see a continued improvement in margins.

因此，這本身就具有槓桿作用。但我們會努力繼續保持我們的成本意識。正如喬希所說，我們在廣告和收入管理方面投資的所有事情都應該有助於隨著時間的推移以及目的地策略提高收益率。因此，我們確實預期利潤率將持續改善。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho Securities.

Ben Chaiken，瑞穗證券。

Celebration Key looks pretty exciting, opening up later this summer. Where do you think you are in the customer awareness of this product? Do you think it's well understood, appreciated by customers? Or is it still -- or is that marketing like an awareness still ramping? And then I have one follow-up.

Celebration Key 看起來非常令人興奮，將於今年夏天晚些時候開放。您認為您對該產品的客戶認知程度如何？您認為它是否得到了客戶的充分理解和讚賞？或者說，這種行銷意識仍在增強嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Sure. Thanks, Ben. Definitely still ramping. I mean it doesn't exist yet. So we are definitely building momentum there. We're building excitement. We're getting the response that we expected with respect to how the bookings are shaping up, which is good to see.

當然。謝謝，本。肯定還在爬坡。我的意思是它還不存在。因此，我們肯定會在那裡建立勢頭。我們正在營造興奮感。我們收到了關於預訂情況的預期回應，這是很高興看到的。

But it's still early days. I think the really exciting part is once we're in there, really operating and having guests enjoy these experiences and optimizing what we do and how we do it, it takes off from there because right now, it's a make belief. So we've got to let everything get in place, and then I think it will help tremendously.

但現在還為時過早。我認為真正令人興奮的部分是，一旦我們進入那裡，真正運作並讓客人享受這些體驗並優化我們的工作和方式，它就會從那裡起飛，因為現在，這是一個信念。所以我們必須讓一切都就位，然後我認為這將會有很大幫助。

Got it. Understood. And then in the release and call, transcript, you referenced an enhanced destination strategy. Can we open this up a little bit? Does this refer to Celebration Key?

知道了。明白了。然後在發布和通話記錄中，您引用了增強的目的地策略。我們可以稍微開放一下嗎？這是指慶典鑰匙嗎？

Or is this a little bit of a teaser to an additional opportunities to pride guests with differentiated Carnival owned operated destinations? I know you mentioned the peer Half Moon Cay, I believe. Just trying to understand the magnitude and direction of the strategy.

或者這是否是為了讓客人有更多機會以嘉年華自營的差異化目的地而自豪？我相信，我知道你有提到半月島。只是想了解該策略的規模和方向。

Yes. So let's take a step back from any one particular destination. I think what I've seen for a long time now for several years, and I think some are doing better than others and better than us, is turning their own destinations into something that not only guests but non-cruisers, look at and decide that's going to help tilt my vacation decision to take a cruise because the destination itself looks amazing, is an amazing experience, and I can only do it on a cruise.

是的。因此，讓我們從任何一個特定的目的地退後一步。我認為我多年來所看到的，而且我認為有些人做得比其他人更好，也比我們更好，正在將他們自己的目的地變成不僅是客人而且是非巡遊者可以查看和決定的東西這將有助於我決定乘坐遊輪度假，因為目的地本身看起來很棒，是一次很棒的體驗，而我只能在遊輪上做到這一點。

And we have not historically, I think, done a good enough job in raising the level of awareness on the amazing destinations that we have and that are in the pipeline. So when it comes to Celebration Key, we're getting a head start because we're doing it before the location exists.

我認為，從歷史上看，我們在提高人們對我們已經擁有和正在建立的令人驚嘆的目的地的認識方面做得不夠好。因此，當涉及到 Celebration Key 時，我們取得了領先優勢，因為我們是在該地點存在之前就開始這樣做的。

When you think about the change to relax away for Half Moon Cay, it is beautiful. It is one of the most stunning destinations in the world. And yet if you're not a cruiser, you don't know anything about it. You're not looking for it. And we're going to change that dynamic. And with RelaxAway, what we're trying to convey to people who don't cruise is really the vibe of the experience that they can get.

當您想到去半月島放鬆身心的變化時，這是美麗的。它是世界上最令人驚嘆的目的地之一。然而，如果你不是巡洋艦，你對此一無所知。你不是在尋找它。我們將改變這種動態。透過 RelaxAway，我們試著向那些不搭乘郵輪的人們傳達真正的體驗氛圍。

And the great thing about it is we're leaning into that natural beauty, which is going to be different from Celebration Key. Celebration key, as we said, that is the ultimate beach day, right? RelaxAway away is all about the idealic, It's being in a tropical paradise, and we're going to be able to marry those two things together.

它的偉大之處在於我們傾向於自然美景，這將與慶典島不同。正如我們所說，慶祝的關鍵是終極海灘日，對嗎？ RelaxAwayaway 是關於理想的，它是在熱帶天堂，我們將能夠將這兩件事結合在一起。

So people on the same cruise will be able to get both experiences that are very, very different and exclusive to us, and so we're going to raise our game there. And there's more things that we can do without heavy investment with some of the destinations that we own to make that part of that more exclusive collection. So it's early days, but we're pretty excited about it.

因此，同一艘遊輪上的人們將能夠獲得兩種非常非常不同且專屬於我們的體驗，因此我們將在那裡提高我們的遊戲水平。我們可以做更多的事情，而無需對我們擁有的一些目的地進行大量投資，使這些目的地成為更獨特的系列的一部分。現在還為時過早，但我們對此感到非常興奮。

Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

史蒂夫·維琴斯基，斯蒂菲爾。

So Josh or David, if we think about the yield guidance for 2025, just based on the fact that you're two-thirds booked already for next year, it seems like you have strong pricing momentum across pretty much all your geographies. I know you'll hate that I say this, but it seems like the 4% or approximately 4% yield guidance to us might end up being conservative when we have this same call a year from now.

因此，喬什或大衛，如果我們考慮 2025 年的收益率指導，僅基於您已經預訂了明年的三分之二的事實，那麼您似乎在幾乎所有地區都擁有強勁的定價動力。我知道你會討厭我這麼說，但一年後我們發出同樣的電話時，4% 或大約 4% 的收益率指導似乎最終可能會變得保守。

So I guess the question is, can you give us a little color around the makeup of that yield forecast? And maybe does it seems like you could be taking a conservative view around whether it's onboard trends, whether it's the close-in pricing opportunity.

所以我想問題是，你可以跟我們介紹一下產量預測的組成嗎？也許您似乎可以對是否為船上趨勢、是否為接近的定價機會採取保守的看法。

And if I ask that question another way, I mean, if we think about the -- your initial yield guidance last year, which I think was 8.5% and it ended up closer to about 11%. What did you guys underestimate for 2024?

如果我以另一種方式問這個問題，我的意思是，如果我們考慮去年的初始收益率指導，我認為是 8.5%，最終接近 11% 左右。你們低估了2024年的什麼？

Steve, well, first of all, we were a little worried you weren't first in the queue. So we're going to literally call 911 to make sure you were okay. So glad to hear your voice. Good. Good. Good. Look, our goal is to give guidance based on what we know, and it's certainly something that we want to meet and obviously work hard to exceed.

史蒂夫，首先，我們有點擔心你不是隊列中的第一個。所以我們會直接撥打 911 以確保您沒事。很高興聽到你的聲音。好的。好的。好的。看，我們的目標是根據我們所知道的提供指導，這當然是我們想要實現的目標，並且顯然會努力超越。

Last year -- I meant what I said in my prepared remarks, I think it was a fantastic year by the whole team. That outperformance was, I would argue, was pretty special. And also argue the 250 basis points of yield on top of a base of 8.5%, proportionately is not 2.5% on top of 4.2%.

去年——我的意思是我在準備好的發言中所說的，我認為對整個團隊來說這是美好的一年。我認為，這種出色的表現非常特別。並且還認為，在 8.5% 的基礎上，收益率上升 250 個基點，按比例來說，不是在 4.2% 的基礎上上升 2.5%。

So we have a very good handle, I think, on where we are today, much more so than last year even because we're already back up in full, already at the full occupancy percentage more or less that we always get. And if you remember, the first half of the year was still in catch-up, which is like 5 points of our improvement in yields last year was occupancy.

因此，我認為，我們對今天的處境有很好的把握，比去年要好得多，即使我們已經完全恢復，已經或多或少地達到了我們總是得到的全部入住率。如果你還記得的話，今年上半年仍然處於追趕狀態，這就像我們去年收益率改善的 5 個百分點來自於入住率。

So I think we're in a more stable place than we were. Well, the onboard spends have been fantastic. There's no doubt about it, and we're working hard to continue that trend. And when you look at the 4.2%, there's a little bit for occupancy, but it's all priced, right?

所以我認為我們現在的處境比以前更穩定。嗯，船上的消費真是太棒了。毫無疑問，我們正在努力延續這一趨勢。當你看到 4.2% 的時候，有一點點入住率，但都是定價的，對嗎？

Outside of a little bit of occupancy, it's priced and it is a combination of the ticket side and the onboard by continuing. And we'll work hard to optimize as much as we can. I promise you, our goal is the same as yours, which is get as much revenue as we can.

除了一點點的入住之外，它的定價也是由票面和車上繼續組合而成。我們將努力盡可能地優化。我向你保證，我們的目標和你的一樣，那就是獲得盡可能多的收入。

Okay. That's good color. And then, Josh, if we look at slide 17, about SEA Change. You noted your EBITDA per ALBD is going to be hopefully achieved in 2025. But if we look at your ROIC targets, we look at the -- even the carbon reduction target, I mean it's almost like you're going to hit those -- potentially hit those as well next year.

好的。這顏色真好啊然後，Josh，我們看一下幻燈片 17，關於 SEA 變革。您指出，您的每 ALBD 的 EBITDA 有望在 2025 年實現。可能會達到這些目標。

So I guess the question is, do you -- I know you're going to hit this, but do you start to think about laying out another set of long-range financial targets at some point? To us, it seems like those SEA Change targets really were important pillars and gave the investment community something to really rally behind. So just trying to get a little bit more color as to how you're thinking about the long-term opportunities here?

所以我想問題是，我知道你會實現這一目標，但你是否開始考慮在某個時候制定另一套長期財務目標？對我們來說，這些 SEA 變革目標確實是重要的支柱，並為投資界提供了真正團結的動力。那麼，只是想了解您如何看待這裡的長期機會？

Yes. Look, when we get there, I can tell you that we -- whether we do it on the same day or whether we wait a quarter to catch our breath, I can promise you, I like the concept, the longer-term targets that we set for ourselves and we set for our investors, so you can understand what we think our trajectory should be. And I can motivate my team internally to rally around what I think we should be expecting of ourselves.

是的。聽著，當我們到達那裡時，我可以告訴你，無論我們是在同一天做，還是等一個季度才能喘口氣，我可以向你保證，我喜歡這個概念，長期目標我們為自己和投資者設定了目標，因此您可以了解我們認為我們的發展軌跡應該是什麼。我可以在內部激勵我的團隊圍繞著我認為我們應該對自己抱持的期望團結起來。

So yes, you can expect that to happen when we get there. And look, I'd love nothing more to get to where we were, where we say we're going to be in 2026 SEA Change targets early. We need about $100 million of operating income to get to the ROIC. Carbon will be harder. We have a pretty good understanding of where we are, but getting to 19%, it's pretty good, and we'll see what happens.

所以，是的，當我們到達那裡時，你可以期待這會發生。看，我非常希望能早日實現我們所謂的 2026 年 SEA 變革目標。我們需要大約 1 億美元的營業收入才能達到 ROIC。碳會更硬。我們對自己所處的位置有很好的了解，但達到 19% 就已經相當不錯了，我們將看看會發生什麼。

Okay. Got you. And real quick housekeeping one. David, is there anything we should think about in terms of cadence of costs? Obviously, we've got the first quarter NCC guide, but anything else through the rest of the year we should think about?

好的。明白你了。還有真正快速的家事服務。大衛，在成本節奏方面我們應該考慮什麼嗎？顯然，我們已經有了第一季的 NCC 指南，但今年剩下的時間我們還應該考慮什麼？

So as you can imagine, it is tough in terms of seasonalization between quarters. But the guidance I would give you is that in the second quarter, we do expect higher dry dock days. So I wouldn't be surprised if the second and third quarter were, call it, 1.5 to 2 points above the full year average in the fourth quarter is lower.

正如你可以想像的那樣，季度之間的季節性調整是很困難的。但我給你的指導是，在第二季度，我們確實預期乾船塢天數會增加。因此，如果第二季和第三季比全年平均高出 1.5 到 2 個百分點，而第四季的平均值較低，我不會感到驚訝。

That's about the best initial guidance I can give you. But we, too, will probably see some changes because this guidance presumes we've made every decision on all advertising and everything else between the quarters. So just take it as a forecast.

這就是我能給你的最好的初步指導。但我們也可能會看到一些變化，因為該指導假設我們已經在兩個季度之間對所有廣告和其他所有事項做出了所有決定。所以就把它當作一個預測吧。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Obviously, fantastic guidance here and better than expected. I did want to ask about two things just to get a feel for whether these things are in your guidance or how much they're in your guidance and whether this would be additional upside? First is Celebration Key, you mentioned, obviously, you expected to be very successful and a driver, but you're not really able to see at this point what it would add really to ticket price or onboard spend.

顯然，這裡的指導非常棒，而且比預期的要好。我確實想問兩件事，只是為了了解這些事情是否在您的指導中，或者它們在您的指導中佔了多少，以及這是否會帶來額外的好處？首先是慶祝鑰匙，您提到，顯然，您希望成為一名非常成功的司機，但目前您還無法真正看到它會真正增加票價或船上支出。

So I'm just wondering if you could help us understand really how little you may have in your yield guidance today for Celebration Key? I know in your cruise cost guidance, it's at 50 basis points. How much is it in your yield guidance at the moment?

所以我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們真正了解您今天的慶祝密鑰收益指導可能有多少？我知道你們的郵輪成本指導是 50 個基點。目前您的收益率指引是多少？

Yes. Thanks, Robin. So it is in our guidance. I'll give you some magnitude of just what touches Celebration Key this year. And it's only 5% of our total sailings in 2025. So it's not that much. When we get to 2026, and we're on a full year run rate basis, you're talking about 15%-plus.

是的。謝謝，羅賓。我們的指導也是如此。我將向您介紹今年慶祝活動的一些重要內容。到 2025 年，這僅占我們總航行量的 5%。當我們到 2026 年時，我們以全年運行率為基礎，你說的是 15% 以上。

So it will be more meaningful for the company overall. Nonetheless, I'm not going to say what it is, but we're happy to say that when we look at our bookings in the fourth quarter for Carnival, we are seeing the premium that we expected to see, which is good to see.

因此，這對公司整體而言將更有意義。儘管如此，我不會說具體是什麼，但我們很高興地說，當我們查看嘉年華第四季度的預訂時，我們看到了我們預期的溢價，這是很好的結果。

Okay. Great. And then also in your EPS guidance, I think that you have $3 billion in debt that's callable next year. I hope I'm getting this number right, but -- and I assume that you're not factoring in the lower interest cost from some of that very expensive debt. If that were redone at maybe what some other things this year have been done at, could that be $0.20 or $0.25 of upside in annual interest expense savings. Is that the ballpark to think about potential upside?

好的。偉大的。然後，在你們的 EPS 指導中，我認為你們有 30 億美元的債務明年可以贖回。我希望我得到的這個數字是正確的，但是——我假設你沒有考慮到一些非常昂貴的債務所帶來的較低的利息成本。如果按照今年其他一些事情的做法重做，年度利息費用節省可能會增加 0.20 美元或 0.25 美元。這是考慮潛在上行空間的大致標準嗎？

So $0.20, $0.25, $0.20 would be $280 million because it's $0.14 per penny. So just keep that in mind. I'm not sure what you were thinking of. I will say that there is opportunity on the refinancings. We do expect to address those double-digit interest rate debt that you're referring to, they're both callable as you said, in the first half of the year. There will be some additional savings.

因此，0.20 美元、0.25 美元、0.20 美元將是 2.8 億美元，因為每美分 0.14 美元。所以請記住這一點。我不確定你在想什麼。我想說的是，再融資是有機會的。我們確實希望在今年上半年解決您提到的那些兩位數利率債務，正如您所說，它們都是可以贖回的。還會有一些額外的節省。

We do -- we will look at that throughout the year. We did include just a bit of saving interest savings in our forecast because we're not sure what the market will bring in terms of interest rates to us. So there is, hopefully, we'll have a number of successful transactions this year, which will provide some upside or we should say some lower interest expense.

我們確實這樣做——我們將全年關注這一點。我們的預測中確實包括了一點儲蓄利息節省，因為我們不確定市場會為我們帶來什麼利率。因此，希望今年我們能夠進行一些成功的交易，這將帶來一些好處，或者我們應該說利息費用會降低。

James Hardiman, Citi.

花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

So I wanted to ask maybe a big picture question. Obviously, not a whole lot of capacity being added here. And so so much of this growth story is organic, obviously.

所以我想問一個大問題。顯然，這裡並沒有增加很多容量。顯然，這個成長故事的大部分內容都是有機的。

And so I guess my first question is, how much of that organic turnaround do you think is a function of factors taking place in the industry versus, I don't know, self-help, right? You listed obviously, a whole bunch of things that you're doing brand by brand. I'm ultimately trying to figure out the sustainability of this organic growth that we're seeing right now?

所以我想我的第一個問題是，你認為這種有機轉變有多少是產業中發生的因素的函數，而不是自助，我不知道，對吧？你顯然列出了你正在逐個品牌做的一大堆事情。我最終試圖弄清楚我們現在看到的這種有機成長的可持續性？

James, man, I wish I could tell you what the scientific answer to your question is about the industry overall versus us. I think the industry being more mainstream along with us is certainly a fantastic thing for everybody and I don't want to discount that. But I meant what I said about same-ship sales.

詹姆斯，夥計，我希望我能告訴你關於整個行業與我們的問題的科學答案是什麼。我認為這個行業與我們一起變得更加主流對每個人來說肯定是一件很棒的事情，我不想低估這一點。但我所說的同船銷售是認真的。

We got almost 10% yields on same ship. And if you look at our history, our historic growth rates on revenue are significantly lower than our cruise competitor set. And when you look -- I don't know what they're going to do next year. But when you look at this year, we're right in the mix and are at the top.

我們在同一艘船上獲得了近 10% 的收益率。如果你看看我們的歷史，我們的歷史收入成長率明顯低於我們的遊輪競爭對手。當你看時——我不知道他們明年會做什麼。但如果你看看今年，我們就處於其中並且名列前茅。

So I feel very good that our trajectory is changing for us versus what we had been accustomed to, and it means we've got a pretty good amount of headroom as we look forward because people should be paying more for our experiences, not only vis-a-vis our cruise competitors, but I'm talking about vis-a-vis the experience gap that exists on what we do versus what land offers, what we call the price to experience ratio is just remarkably skewed and we should be getting a lot more versus what land competitors do it.

因此，我感覺非常好，我們的軌跡正在發生變化，這意味著我們在展望未來時擁有相當大的空間，因為人們應該為我們的體驗付出更多，而不僅僅是視覺-相對於我們的遊輪競爭對手，但我說的是相對於我們所做的事情與陸地提供的服務之間存在的經驗差距，我們所說的價格與經驗之比明顯偏斜，我們應該得到與土地競爭對手相比，多得多。

I think it's probably a pretty good sign that I'm right about that and the potential when you think about Disney, basically say we're going to underinvest in things that we have in the past, but we're going to double down on cruise. They see the value of that as well. So I think we're in good company and we've got a lot of self-help along the way.

我認為這可能是一個很好的跡象，表明我的觀點是正確的，當你想到迪士尼的潛力時，基本上是說我們將在過去擁有的東西上投資不足，但我們將加倍努力巡航。他們也看到了它的價值。所以我認為我們是很好的伙伴，並且一路上我們得到了很多自助。

Got it. And then I guess along those same lines, although, I guess, in a lot of ways, I'm asking some previous questions in a different way. But you finished '24 with per diems up north of 5%. The guidance for the year, I guess, yield guidance is 42. There's some occupancy in there and then first quarter is 4.6.

知道了。然後我想沿著同樣的思路，儘管我想，在很多方面，我正在以不同的方式問一些以前的問題。但 24 年結束時，你的每日津貼增加了 5% 以上。我猜今年的收益率指引是 42。

So we're going 5-plus to 4.6 to something lower. I guess from our perspective, right, Celebration Key, which comes on in the back half should should actually help with some acceleration. I guess, is there anything quantifiable that we should be thinking about that would weigh on per diems as we work our way through the year, maybe an itinerary geographical mix issue?

所以我們將 5+ 到 4.6 甚至更低。我想從我們的角度來看，在後半段出現的慶祝鍵實際上應該有助於加速。我想，有沒有什麼可以量化的事情是我們應該考慮的，這些事情會在我們全年工作時影響每日津貼，也許是行程地理組合問題？

Or is this just -- you get some version of this question every quarter, right? Is this just conservatism the further out you look?

或者這只是——每個季度你都會收到這個問題的某個版本，對吧？你看得越遠，這就是保守主義嗎？

The same answers that we've been giving, right? We're trying to be as transparent as we can be with everyone on the call and everyone who's not on the call. We haven't been through (inaudible), we will. Although it's been a remarkable ride for two years, it feels like wave hasn't stopped since summer of 2022 but we haven't been there yet. And so we'll see what that brings us. And we'll talk again in March.

我們一直在給出同樣的答案，對吧？我們盡力對所有參與通話的人和所有未參與通話的人保持透明。我們還沒有經歷過（聽不清楚），但我們會經歷的。雖然這兩年的旅程很精彩，但感覺自 2022 年夏天以來浪潮就沒有停止過，但我們還沒有到達那裡。所以我們會看看這會為我們帶來什麼。我們將在三月再次討論。

Patrick Scholes, Truist.

派崔克‧斯科爾斯，真理主義者。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great. I'd like to ask a little bit about Mexico for my first question. Some news out there lately regarding additional passenger charges on that. Is you -- Josh, do you think it's a done deal? Or is there any chance that, that may not go through at this point? And then specifically for your folks for your ships, what percentage of your itineraries do make a stop at a port in Mexico? That's my first question.

偉大的。對於我的第一個問題，我想了解一些有關墨西哥的情況。最近有一些關於額外乘客收費的消息。你是——喬什，你認為這件事已經完成了嗎？或是否有可能目前無法進行？然後，特別是對於您的船上人員來說，您的行程中經停墨西哥港口的比例是多少？這是我的第一個問題。

So right off the bat, no, I do not think it is a done deal. We've been dealing with this with the folks in Mexico for the last few weeks. We were not consulted. No one was consulted when this was passed. It's pretty clear to me. I have a lot of respect for the President and what she's doing. But she was misinformed, not informed and no one is making through the ramifications of what they were suggesting.

所以馬上，不，我不認為這已經是板上釘釘的事情了。過去幾週我們一直在與墨西哥的人們處理這個問題。沒有諮詢我們。該法案通過時並沒有徵求任何人的意見。我很清楚。我非常尊重總統和她所做的事情。但她被誤導了，沒有被告知，也沒有人了解他們建議的後果。

And there's a reason why cruise is in transit historically, as opposed to people who fly into Mexico and stay there for several days. So it's already been pushed off to July 1. We're not satisfied with that. We want to have good dialogue with the government and explain all the benefits that we bring to Mexico, which are significant, and it doesn't take much to tweak itineraries to effectively erase what the proposed tax is on the industry.

歷史上郵輪是過境的，而不是飛往墨西哥並在那裡停留幾天的人，這是有原因的。所以它已經被推遲到 7 月 1 日了。我們希望與政府進行良好的對話，並解釋我們為墨西哥帶來的所有好處，這些好處非常重要，而且不需要太多調整行程就可以有效消除擬議的對該行業的稅收。

And so I feel -- we are engaged in those conversations. We hope to have more after the new year, but it definitely not settled. And we have nothing in the forecast for these changes for the tax, just so everybody knows, nothing for the year. As far as what the impact would be for 2025, assuming it did go into place and we made no changes starting in July of 2025, it's less than 5% of our itineraries for the year (inaudible).

所以我覺得──我們正在參與這些對話。我們希望新年後能有更多，但這絕對沒有解決。我們對稅收的這些變化沒有任何預測，正如大家都知道的那樣，今年沒有任何預測。至於對 2025 年的影響，假設它確實實施並且我們從 2025 年 7 月開始沒有做出任何改變，那麼它只占我們當年行程的不到 5%（聽不清楚）。

Okay. Certainly, a -- the fluid situation. And then a follow-up question is on the year-over-year growth rate in your passenger ticket revenues versus year-over-year growth rate in your commissions, transportation and other.

好的。當然，情況不穩定。接下來的一個問題是你的客運機票收入的同比增長率與佣金、運輸和其他方面的同比增長率。

The past several quarters, those growth rates moved in line or lockstep. This most recent quarter, you did have a noticeable increase in passenger ticket revenue percentages higher than the commissions paid out. Are you starting to see more book direct or anything to read in that?

過去幾個季度，這些成長率保持一致或同步。在最近一個季度，客運機票收入百分比確實顯著增加，高於支付的佣金。您是否開始直接閱讀更多書籍或其中有任何值得閱讀的內容？

Patrick, we should talk after the call. I thought it was a pretty close -- it was 10%, 7% or something, its very close -- revenue.

派崔克，我們應該在通話結束後談談。我認為這是一個非常接近的收入，是 10%、7% 或其他，非常接近。

Okay. I was talking about a (inaudible). We'll talk about that after the call. But anything (inaudible).

好的。我正在談論一個（聽不清楚）。我們將在通話後討論此事。但任何事情（聽不清楚）。

Nothing now -- consider, I mean, the numbers, as you know, do vary a little bit from quarter to quarter because of currency and the amount of air mix that we have, but nothing significant, otherwise.

現在什麼都沒有——我的意思是，考慮一下，正如你所知，由於貨幣和我們擁有的空氣混合量，每個季度的數字確實略有不同，但除此之外沒有什麼重大意義。

David Katz, Jefferies.

大衛‧卡茨，傑弗里斯。

Covered a lot already. I wanted to get a sense for the cost side of the equation, right? And the variability within there, right? The degree to which and what would have to happen for you to turn out a little bit better. on the cost increases that you may have built into your guidance? And then I have a quick follow-up.

已經涵蓋很多了。我想了解一下等式的成本面，對吧？以及其中的可變性，對嗎？要讓你變得更好一點，需要發生什麼程度和需要發生什麼。關於您可能已納入指導的成本增加？然後我會進行快速跟進。

Yes. So the -- if we're talking about the full year, in the 3.7%. The thing that is likely to change over time is most likely to be the efficiencies we find and the magnitude of those efficiencies. We are constantly working hard. We have lots of ideas out there. It is always very difficult to figure out the exact timing and we did build quite a bit into our guidance and into our forecast, but we continue to work hard to improve on those.

是的。因此，如果我們談論的是全年，則是 3.7%。隨著時間的推移，最有可能改變的是我們發現的效率以及這些效率的大小。我們一直在努力。我們有很多想法。要弄清楚確切的時間總是非常困難，我們確實在我們的指導和預測中融入了相當多的內容，但我們將繼續努力改進這些內容。

And so last year, we were able to exceed what our expectations were, and we'll work hard to try to do better this year. But it's very hard on the timing of all these items. Plus, we built in inflation, something a little bit less than 3% and trying to to get that number perfect.

去年，我們超越了我們的預期，今年我們將努力做得更好。但所有這些項目的時間安排非常困難。另外，我們也考慮了通貨膨脹率，略低於 3%，並努力使這個數字完美。

I mean if you know absolutely in every category, what inflation will be in 2025, let me know because we did the best we could. But I'm sure some of those pieces are going to be off. As I always say, there's only one thing I know about every forecast, it's wrong. I just don't know by how much and in what direction.

我的意思是，如果您絕對知道 2025 年通貨膨脹的各個類別，請告訴我，因為我們已盡力而為。但我確信其中一些作品將會被淘汰。正如我常說的，對於每一個預測，我只知道一件事：它是錯的。我只是不知道有多少以及朝著什麼方向。

Well said. I wanted to follow up just on the leverage side of things. When I look back historically, at where the company has operated? Obviously, making good progress today, but should we be thinking about the two times or better as a long-term aspirational target? Is that still achievable?

說得好。我只想跟進槓桿方面的事情。當我回顧歷史時，公司在哪裡運作？顯然，今天取得了良好的進展，但我們是否應該將兩倍或更好的成績作為長期的理想目標？這仍然可以實現嗎？

Well, I'm proud former Treasurer of the company. it's not a target we have for ourselves right now. Our target right now is get to investment-grade metrics, which is to 3.5 times. How strong we want to rebuild that fortress? That's still up for that's up for a decision.

嗯，我為公司的前財務主管感到自豪。這不是我們現在為自己設定的目標。我們現在的目標是達到投資等級指標，即 3.5 倍。我們想要重建這座堡壘有多強大？這還有待決定。

Do we need to be an A- rated company again, bordering on A, which is some of the situations we found ourselves in? I could argue, no, we don't need to. Do we want to be a solid investment grade? Absolutely.

我們是否需要再次成為 A 級公司，接近 A 級，這就是我們所處的一些情況？我可以爭辯說，不，我們不需要。我們想成為可靠的投資等級嗎？絕對地。

So as we get closer to that metric, we're obviously going to be having conversations with our board to really set out what we think the right balance is between that balance sheet strength investing in ourselves, investing in our shareholder returns via dividends or buybacks, well it remains to be seen what the form will be and when. But that all goes into the mix. But I'd say nobody should be thinking about two times the target we're setting for ourselves.

因此，當我們接近這一指標時，我們顯然將與董事會進行對話，以真正確定我們認為資產負債表實力投資於我們自己與通過股息或回購投資於股東回報之間的正確平衡。和時間還有待觀察。但這一切都融入其中。但我想說，沒有人應該考慮我們為自己設定的目標的兩倍。

Jamie Katz, Morgan Stanley -- I'm sorry, Morningstar.

傑米·卡茨（Jamie Katz），摩根士丹利——對不起，晨星公司。

First, I'm hoping that you guys can talk a little bit about wave season. I guess I'm trying to understand how to think about balancing filling the rest of 2025 with pulling forward more demand from 2026? And whether or not one is a better strategy than the other without giving too much competitive information away, is there a way to, I guess, bundle even less than you are bundling now? And maybe promote less in order to optimize pricing?

首先，我希望你們能談談浪潮季節。我想我正在嘗試了解如何平衡 2025 年剩餘時間的需求與 2026 年起拉動更多需求之間的平衡？無論一種策略是否比另一種策略更好，而又不會洩露太多競爭信息，我想，是否有一種方法可以比現在的捆綁方式更少？也許減少促銷以優化定價？

Yes, thanks. So it's a little bit of a hard question to answer. We are actively and have been actively selling 2025 and 2026 for some time, as you might have picked up in the prepared remarks. We actually just had a record this past quarter for booking activity for the further year out to 2026 in this case.

是的，謝謝。所以這是一個有點難回答的問題。一段時間以來，我們一直在積極銷售 2025 年和 2026 年的葡萄酒，正如您可能已經在準備好的評論中了解到的那樣。實際上，在這種情況下，我們上個季度剛剛創下了 2026 年未來一年的預訂活動記錄。

So I think our brands are actually when it comes to revenue management and optimizing the shape of the curve, they're doing a pretty solid job across the board, which doesn't mean there's not a lot of room for improvement, but a pretty solid job.

所以我認為我們的品牌實際上在收入管理和優化曲線形狀方面，他們在全面方面做得相當紮實，這並不意味著沒有很大的改進空間，而是一個相當不錯的水平。

So everyone's hitting wave in slightly different positions with respect to how much they're booked for 2025 and in what quarters. So I'd say it's a case-by-case decision about how they're going to be tackling wave. I would say everybody does promotions in wave -- everyone.

因此，每個人對於 2025 年預訂金額和季度預訂的立場略有不同。所以我想說，他們將根據具體情況決定如何應對浪潮。我想說，每個人都在進行促銷活動——每個人。

It's how you get people interested in cruising during this critical period. But I would remind you, we did promotions last year in wave, and we ended up with 11% yields. So the promotional tactics and tools that we use are -- they're healthy and they're part of the process that we go through.

這就是在這個關鍵時期讓人們對巡航產生興趣的方法。但我要提醒你，我們去年進行了一波促銷活動，最終獲得了 11% 的收益率。因此，我們使用的促銷策略和工具是健康的，也是我們所經歷的流程的一部分。

And then the other question I have is a little bit of a longer-term strategic question, right? We know what the costs are affiliated with Celebration Key this summer. But I suspect this isn't a one-and-done project. So is there some non-new-build CapEx we should be thinking of like level that will be in these in these brand-building projects longer term that might be higher than it was in the past?

我的另一個問題是長期策略問題，對吧？我們知道今年夏天 Celebration Key 的費用是多少。但我懷疑這不是一勞永逸的計畫。那麼，從長遠來看，這些品牌建設項目中是否存在一些我們應該考慮的類似水平的非新建資本支出可能會高於過去？

That's a fair question. I think if you think about the things that we've been investing outside of the newbuild Celebration Key, Half Moon Cay, AIDA Evolutions, right, which is their midship refurbishment plan. And AIDA is much to Carnival (inaudible).

這是一個公平的問題。我想如果你考慮我們在新建的 Celebration Key、Half Moon Cay、AIDA Evolutions 之外投資的東西，對吧，這是他們的船中翻新計劃。 AIDA 對嘉年華來說意義重大（聽不清楚）。

AIDA is pretty much neck and neck with Carnival for highest returning brand in our portfolio. We're making the right investments in non-new build to continue the momentum that we have. As far as what the ultimate level is on a run rate basis goes, we don't -- I don't have a number for you that I'd stick to that says over the next six years or seven years, this is what you should expect.

AIDA 與 Carnival 幾乎並駕齊驅，成為我們產品組合中回報率最高的品牌。我們正在對非新建項目進行正確的投資，以延續我們現有的勢頭。至於以運行率為基礎的最終水平，我們沒有——我沒有給你一個我會堅持的數字，那就是在未來六年或七年裡，這就是你應該期待。

But clearly, we're making these investments on the basis that they're going to support the improved returns that we demand of ourselves. So it's about $600 million for Celebration Key as we've talked about. It's another few hundred million for what we're doing at RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay.

但顯然，我們進行這些投資的基礎是它們將支持我們要求自己提高回報。正如我們所說，Celebration Key 的成本約為 6 億美元。對於我們在 Half Moon Cay RelaxAway 所做的事情來說，這還需要幾億美元。

And AIDA Evolutions, for any one particular ship that they're going through this process, you're talking about tens of millions, but we think it's tens of millions that really is going to be a boost for a brand that is incredibly high returning. So I don't know, David, if you want to add any more color?

AIDA Evolutions，對於他們正在經歷這個過程的任何一艘特定的船舶，你談論的是數千萬，但我們認為這數千萬確實將成為一個回報率極高的品牌的推動力。所以我不知道，大衛，你是否想添加更多的顏色？

Yes. The only thing I'd say is, I mean, you saw in the press release what our number was for 2025. In all likelihood, it's going to be something similar to that going forward. But it's hard to say exactly what it will be every single year because there's so many bigger decisions that we'll be making over time, which will make up that number.

是的。我唯一要說的是，我的意思是，您在新聞稿中看到了我們 2025 年的數字。但很難確切地說每年會是什麼，因為隨著時間的推移，我們將做出許多更大的決定，這將構成這個數字。

One thing I would say about the destination side is Celebration Key and Half Moon Cay, are a little bit unique in the scope and size of what we're doing. The other destinations we have in our footprint, they're amazing, and we will spend some money over time to do some things and make the experience better and better opportunity for us to generate returns.

關於目的地方面，我要說的一件事是慶祝島嶼和半月島，在我們正在做的事情的範圍和規模上有點獨特。我們足跡中的其他目的地都很棒，隨著時間的推移，我們將花一些錢來做一些事情，讓體驗變得更好，為我們帶來更好的回報機會。

But I don't see -- other than maybe a continued expansion of Celebration Key as we've already been talking about through the end of this decade. I'm not sure I see on the horizon anything that I'd flag for you right now is out of the blue that we'd be talking about in six months or a year.

但我不認為——除了慶祝鑰匙的持續擴張之外，正如我們在本世紀末所討論的那樣。我不確定我現在為您標記的任何內容是否會出乎我們在六個月或一年後討論的內容。

Yes. We'll just take one more question. We're approaching the hour.

是的。我們再問一個問題。我們快到了。

Sure thing. Brandt Montour, Barclays.

當然可以。布蘭特·蒙圖爾，巴克萊銀行。

Congratulations on the results today. So the first question is on the booking curve, Josh, and I don't know if this is an easy one to answer. But when you try and take forecasting out of it and you just focus in on booking curve today versus the way -- versus how you're booking your bookings looked at the same time last year. Does the pricing look any less robust than this time last year, perhaps tougher comps or anything else that you would highlight?

祝賀今天的結果。所以第一個問題是關於預訂曲線，喬什，我不知道這是否是一個容易回答的問題。但是，當您嘗試從中進行預測時，您只需關註今天的預訂曲線與方式 - 與去年同期的預訂方式相比。定價看起來是否比去年同期更不強勁，也許是更嚴格的比較或您要強調的其他內容？

Well, I mean, it's certainly tougher comps this year than it was last year. The brands are -- as I said, though, in the prepared remarks, we're basically at a higher occupancy at a higher price point, and that's across all four quarters.

嗯，我的意思是，今年的比賽肯定比去年更艱難。不過，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，這些品牌基本上以更高的價格點實現了更高的入住率，而且在所有四個季度都是如此。

So I think the brands are doing a good job of continuing the momentum and optimizing optimizing that curve. So it probably doesn't answer the question the way you'd like it to, but we'll see where that shakes out. We gave you our our view of yields as of now, and we'll update you as there's things to update.

因此，我認為這些品牌在延續勢頭和優化曲線方面做得很好。因此，它可能不會按照您希望的方式回答問題，但我們會看看結果如何。我們向您提供了我們對目前收益率的看法，如果有需要更新的內容，我們會及時通知您。

Okay. Great. And then just a quick housekeeping. The Red Sea had a something like a $130 million impact last year. How much of that effectively do you get back in '25? And how should we think about the timing of it in the cases and where it would show up in the comps?

好的。偉大的。然後就是快速的家事服務。去年紅海造成的影響約 1.3 億美元。 25 年你能有效收回多少？我們應該如何考慮它在案例中的時機以及它會出現在比較中的位置？

I think what it all shook out, it was probably a little less than $100 million at the end as we did our analysis for 2024. I think the thing about year over year for '25 that people need to keep in mind is it's not a huge spring back. And the reason why is if you think about this time last year, we had already sold our world cruises, people are already on them before the Red Sea became a thing.

我認為這一切都震動了，當我們對 2024 年進行分析時，最終可能略低於 1 億美元。原因是，如果你想想去年的這個時候，我們已經賣掉了我們的世界郵輪，在紅海成為現實之前，人們就已經開始乘坐它們了。

We had to scramble. We did everything we had to do, it cost us $90 million. This year, we're in a different place, which is we knowingly took Red Sea out of the equation back in February, March for 2025, which meant we had to sell cruises that weren't necessarily as attractive to sell because you can't go through the Red Sea.

我們不得不爭先恐後。我們做了我們該做的一切，花了 9000 萬美元。今年，我們處於不同的境地，即我們在 2025 年 2 月、3 月故意將紅海排除在外，這意味著我們必須出售不一定具有吸引力的遊輪，因為你可以「不要穿越紅海。

And so from a year over year, it's a different pain point that we had to deal with, and we've dealt with and it's in our numbers. But it means that what you'd love to see is this bounce back, and we're a whole and we move forward. I don't think '25 versus '24 is really the year that we'll see that. The normalization is now, and so '26 versus '25 will be on an apples-to-apples basis.

因此，年復一年，這是我們必須處理的不同痛點，我們已經處理了，並且它體現在我們的數字中。但這意味著你希望看到的是這種反彈，我們是一個整體，我們繼續前進。我不認為“25 年”和“24 年”真的是我們會看到這一點的一年。現在已經標準化了，所以 26 年與 25 年的比賽將是勢均力敵的。

Okay. So lower yields offsetting no disruption this year?

好的。那麼，較低的收益率可以抵消今年沒有出現的干擾嗎？

Yes, more or less in high level, that's fair. Okay. So with that, I think we're over time. So I'd say happy holidays and wishing everybody on the call, nothing but good health and happiness in 2025. Thanks very much for joining.

是的，或多或少在高水準上，這是公平的。好的。至此，我認為我們已經超時了。所以我想說節日快樂，並祝福各位來電的人身體健康，2025 年幸福快樂。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。