嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. This is Josh Weinstein. Welcome to our second quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined today by our Chair, Micky Arison; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Beth Roberts.

早上好。這是喬什·韋恩斯坦。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天我們的主席 Micky Arison 也加入了我的行列。我們的首席財務官大衛·伯恩斯坦；以及我們的投資者關係高級副總裁貝絲·羅伯茨 (Beth Roberts)。

Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I'll refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

在開始之前，請注意，我們在本次電話會議上的一些評論將具有前瞻性。因此，我將向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。

There are many milestones we've hit over the last 2 years, and this past quarter is no exception. In fact, there was much to celebrate in the second quarter. We reached a meaningful inflection point for revenue with net yield surpassing 2019 strong level. And on top of that, operating income, cash from operations and adjusted free cash flow were all positive.

過去兩年我們實現了許多里程碑，上個季度也不例外。事實上，第二季度有很多值得慶祝的事情。我們的收入達到了一個有意義的拐點，淨收益率超過了 2019 年的強勁水平。最重要的是，營業收入、營業現金和調整後的自由現金流均為正值。

Adding to those achievements, we just hit all-time highs for bookings and customer deposits. And remarkably, we are still experiencing a phenomenal (inaudible), which started early, gained strength and is still going strong midway through the year. The strength in demand delivered outperformance in the second quarter for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and the bottom line, a credit to the dedicated efforts of our 160,000 amazing team members ship and shore.

除了這些成就之外，我們的預訂量和客戶存款也創下了歷史新高。值得注意的是，我們仍在經歷一個現象（聽不清），它開始得很早，逐漸增強，並且在今年中期仍然強勁。強勁的需求使第二季度的收入、調整後的 EBITDA 和淨利潤表現出色，這歸功於我們 160,000 名出色的船岸團隊成員的不懈努力。

Net yields in constant currency turned positive in the second quarter compared to 2019 as we drove cruise ticket prices above 2019 while maintaining record onboard revenue growth and continuing to close the gap on occupancy. In fact, net per diems in constant currency were up 7.5% over 2019 in the second quarter. This was 4.5 points better than the midpoint of guidance which we were able to achieve while meeting our forecasted occupancy.

與 2019 年相比，按固定匯率計算的第二季度淨收益率轉正，因為我們將郵輪票價推至 2019 年以上，同時保持創紀錄的船上收入增長並繼續縮小入住率差距。事實上，按固定匯率計算，第二季度的每日津貼淨額比 2019 年增長了 7.5%。這比我們在滿足預測入住率的同時能夠實現的指導中點高出 4.5 個百分點。

Based on continued strength in pricing, we have also raised our expectation for net for diems in the second half by over 2.5 points while again, maintaining our occupancy expectations, which is supporting our guidance of higher net yields in the second half of 2023 over 2019 in constant currency. This revenue growth will be significantly higher than the increase in our cost guidance, which David will elaborate on.

基於定價的持續走強，我們還將下半年的淨生活津貼預期提高了 2.5 個百分點以上，同時再次維持了入住率預期，這支持了我們對 2023 年下半年淨收益率高於 2019 年的指導以不變貨幣計算。這一收入增長將顯著高於我們成本指導的增長，大衛將對此進行詳細說明。

All told, we are bringing another $275 million to the bottom line for the year, thanks to the strength in revenue as well as the interest expense benefit we are capturing from deleveraging.

總而言之，由於收入強勁以及我們從去槓桿化中獲得的利息支出收益，我們今年的利潤將再增加 2.75 億美元。

On a per ALBD basis and holding fuel price and currency constant to 2019 levels, we progressed from 59% of 2019's EBITDA in the first quarter to 73% back in our second quarter. We expect to hit about 85% for the third quarter and be all the way back for the fourth quarter. We are now expecting adjusted EBITDA of $4.1 billion to $4.25 billion, above the high end of our prior guidance range. As I mentioned, booking volumes reached an all-time high in our second quarter, exceeding the record levels we achieved in the first quarter, which would normally be our peak period.

按照 ALBD 計算，並保持燃油價格和貨幣不變於 2019 年水平，我們的 EBITDA 從第一季度 2019 年的 59% 上升到第二季度的 73%。我們預計第三季度將達到 85% 左右，第四季度將一路回升。我們目前預計調整後 EBITDA 為 41 億至 42.5 億美元，高於我們之前指導範圍的上限。正如我所提到的，第二季度的預訂量達到了歷史最高水平，超過了第一季度的創紀錄水平，而第一季度通常是我們的高峰期。

Booking volumes were 17% higher than 2019, which is multiple of our capacity growth. We experienced double-digit growth in booking volumes on both sides of the Atlantic. Demand for our European brands has continued to strengthen and is now outpacing 2019 booking volumes at a rate that's comparable to our North America brands and the strength in demand has carried into June. In North America, the booking curve is as far out as we have ever seen it, while our European brands are quickly catching up to 2019 levels. With over 90% of this year on the books, 2023 is now essentially behind us, and we are strategically building a strong base of revenue for 2024. In fact, our book position for 2024 also stands at record levels.

預訂量比 2019 年增加了 17%，是我們運力增長的倍數。我們在大西洋兩岸的預訂量都實現了兩位數的增長。對我們歐洲品牌的需求持續增強，目前的預訂量已超過 2019 年，其速度與我們的北美品牌相當，而且需求的強勁勢頭一直持續到 6 月份。在北美，預訂曲線是我們所見過的最遠的，而我們的歐洲品牌正在迅速趕上 2019 年的水平。今年的賬面餘額已超過 90%，2023 年基本上已經過去，我們正在戰略性地為 2024 年建立強大的收入基礎。事實上，我們 2024 年的賬面狀況也達到了創紀錄的水平。

Reflecting this performance, our customer deposits are also at an all-time high of $7.2 billion, significantly higher than our prior peak of $6 billion. Customer deposits grew 26% over the prior quarter and are multiples of our measured capacity growth as we strategically push out our booking lead times and pull forward more onboard spend through bundled packages and pre-crew sales.

我們的客戶存款也創下了 72 億美元的歷史新高，顯著高於之前 60 億美元的峰值，這反映了這一業績。客戶存款比上一季度增長了 26%，是我們測得的運力增長的數倍，因為我們戰略性地延長了預訂提前期，並通過捆綁套餐和預售人員銷售拉動了更多的船上支出。

Onboard revenues were once again off the chart this quarter as the strategy delivers an added benefit of elevating spending once on board, enabling us to capture more of our guests vacation wallet.

本季度機上收入再次突破圖表，因為該策略提供了增加機上支出的額外好處，使我們能夠贏得更多客人的度假錢包。

Our brands are laser-focused on our strategy to pull forward both ticket and onboard spend, which only enhances the visibility and predictability of our recurring revenue base. We have over 50% of the next 12 months, both at any given time and over 1/3 of onboard revenues now on the books in advance or sailings.

我們的品牌專注於推動機票和機上支出的戰略，這只會增強我們經常性收入基礎的可見性和可預測性。無論在任何特定時間，我們都有超過 50% 的未來 12 個月的收入，超過 1/3 的船上收入現已提前記入賬簿或航行。

Our demand generation efforts are in full swing. Our cumulative number of new-to-cruise and new-to-brand guests who sailed with us in the second quarter have already exceeded 2019's level. Our natural search performance is up across the board with an 87% increase over 2019 which is up from a 63% increase last quarter, affirming the success of our new marketing campaigns in driving awareness and consideration.

我們的需求生成工作正在全面展開。第二季度搭乘我們郵輪的累計新遊輪和新品牌客人數量已超過2019年的水平。我們的自然搜索表現全面提升，較 2019 年增長 87%，高於上季度的 63%，這證實了我們新的營銷活動在提高認知度和考慮度方面取得的成功。

Our lead generation efforts are also working with a 60% increase in paid search clicks over 2019, which is nearly double the 35% increase just last quarter. To accommodate the success and our increased demand profile, we've grown our sales and sales support staff by over 50% in recent months. At the same time, we can see the impact it is also having with the trade. As I've said before, in order for us to be successful, we need all of our sales channels to excel, and that certainly includes our travel agent partners who are critical in helping us widen the pipeline for new-to-cruise guests. And I've got great news on that front. The trade is continuing to rebound significantly with sales volumes up 45% year-over-year as we increase training, engagement and support activities. And of course, our advertising investments benefit not only us, but our trade partners as well.

我們的潛在客戶開發工作還使付費搜索點擊量比 2019 年增加了 60%，幾乎是上個季度 35% 增幅的兩倍。為了適應這一成功和我們不斷增長的需求，近幾個月來，我們的銷售和銷售支持人員數量增加了 50% 以上。與此同時，我們也可以看到它對貿易的影響。正如我之前所說，為了讓我們取得成功，我們需要所有銷售渠道都表現出色，其中當然包括我們的旅行社合作夥伴，他們對於幫助我們拓寬新遊輪客人的渠道至關重要。我在這方面有好消息。隨著我們增加培訓、參與和支持活動，貿易持續顯著反彈，銷量同比增長 45%。當然，我們的廣告投資不僅使我們受益，也使我們的貿易夥伴受益。

By any measure, our decision to increase our investment in advertising is paying off. The sequential improvement in these important KPIs suggests the strength we are seeing in demand will continue. All of this has built confidence not just in our 2023 outlook, but in our ability to launch SEA Change, 3-year targets that will demonstrate our progress towards delivering strong profitability and rebuilding our financial fortress.

無論以何種標準衡量，我們增加廣告投資的決定都得到了回報。這些重要關鍵績效指標的連續改善表明我們所看到的需求強勁勢頭將持續下去。所有這些不僅讓我們對 2023 年的前景充滿信心，而且對我們啟動 SEA Change 的能力充滿信心，這項 3 年目標將展示我們在實現強勁盈利能力和重建金融堡壘方面取得的進展。

The acronym S-E-A stands for Sustainability through carbon intensity reduction, EBITDA per ALBD and Adjusted ROIC. Three very important key performance indicators. And for each of these items, we expect to see significant improvements from current level and well above 2019. In fact, the 2 financial measures will be the best we have seen in almost 2 decades and the carbon intensity rate will be unprecedented.

首字母縮略詞 S-E-A 代表通過降低碳強度實現可持續發展、根據 ALBD 計算的 EBITDA 和調整後的投資回報率。三個非常重要的關鍵績效指標。對於這些項目中的每一項，我們預計都將比當前水平顯著改善，並遠高於 2019 年。事實上，這兩項財務指標將是我們近 20 年來所見過的最好的，碳強度率將是前所未有的。

For the S for sustainability, we plan to reduce our carbon intensity by more than 20% compared to 2019. Essentially, we plan to deliver on our 2030 decarbonization goal 4 years early. Reducing our carbon intensity has been and continues to be a priority for our company. It is critical to improving our environmental impact and to improving our financial performance. We are widening the gap to peers on what is already the most fuel-efficient fleet out there.

對於可持續發展的 S，我們計劃與 2019 年相比將碳強度降低 20% 以上。本質上，我們計劃提前 4 年實現 2030 年脫碳目標。降低碳強度一直是並將繼續成為我們公司的首要任務。這對於改善我們的環境影響和改善我們的財務業績至關重要。我們正在擴大與同行在燃油效率最高的車隊方面的差距。

For the E, we are targeting a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA per ALBD compared to our 2023 guidance. This would also represent a 25% increase over 2019 levels both the fuel price and currency constant. EBITDA per ALBD best measures the increasing unit profitability of our business as we execute on our strategy to deliver revenue yield improvement on lower capacity growth.

對於 E，我們的目標是與 2023 年指導相比，每 ALBD 的調整後 EBITDA 增加 50%。這也意味著燃料價格和貨幣常數比 2019 年水平上漲 25%。每 ALBD 的 EBITDA 最好地衡量我們業務不斷增長的單位盈利能力，因為我們執行我們的戰略，以在產能增長較低的情況下提高收入收益率。

And finally, for the A, we expect Adjusted ROIC to reach 12% and more than doubling from 2023 level. We already have the lowest investment base in our industry, and our strategy is designed to deliver outsized returns through high-quality yield-driven revenue growth while maintaining our industry-leading cost structure.

最後，對於 A，我們預計調整後的投資回報率將達到 12%，比 2023 年的水平增加一倍以上。我們已經擁有行業中最低的投資基礎，我們的戰略旨在通過高質量的收益驅動型收入增長提供巨額回報，同時保持行業領先的成本結構。

These targets are all grounded on low-capacity growth of under 2.5% compounded annually which will allow us to use our cash flow generation to pay down debt and rebuild the balance sheet as we work towards investment-grade leverage metrics. Essentially, we pulled forward our most important sustainability goal and expect a step change in both profitability and return on invested capital in just 3 years. And importantly, these targets are not our angle. They are measurable markers of continuous improvement.

這些目標均以年復合增長率低於 2.5% 的低產能增長為基礎，這將使我們能夠在努力實現投資級槓桿指標的同時，利用現金流來償還債務並重建資產負債表。從本質上講，我們推進了最重要的可持續發展目標，並預計在短短三年內盈利能力和投資資本回報率將發生巨大變化。重要的是，這些目標不是我們的角度。它們是持續改進的可衡量標誌。

To make this happen, we have a sense of urgency to further our brand efforts to drive net yield improvement and while it's working, we recognize these efforts do build over time.

為了實現這一目標，我們有一種緊迫感，需要進一步加強我們的品牌努力，以推動淨收益的提高，在發揮作用的同時，我們認識到這些努力確實會隨著時間的推移而建立。

As mentioned on previous calls, to help support this growth and drive overall revenue generation over time, I've actively been working with each brand on their strategies and road maps to ensure they will truly own their space in the vacation market. This means having clearly identified target markets, capacity that is appropriately sized to the market potential, demand generation and marketing capability to hone in on the target market at the lowest possible acquisition costs, revenue management execution to generate optimized pricing across the booking curve and amazing onboard guest experience delivery to drive Net Promoter Scores and resulting advocacy higher. This will allow us to continue building on our large base of loyal guests as we work to increase awareness and consideration among new-to-cruise guests.

正如之前的電話會議中提到的，為了幫助支持這種增長並隨著時間的推移推動整體收入的產生，我一直在積極與每個品牌合作制定戰略和路線圖，以確保他們真正在度假市場上擁有自己的空間。這意味著要明確目標市場、根據市場潛力調整規模的產能、以盡可能低的收購成本進軍目標市場的需求生成和營銷能力、在整個預訂曲線上產生優化定價的收益管理執行力以及令人驚嘆的收益管理能力。機上賓客體驗交付可提高淨推薦值並提高擁護度。這將使我們能夠繼續建立龐大的忠實客人基礎，同時努力提高新遊輪客人的認知度和考慮度。

To make it happen, we also need to ensure we set our brands up for success organizationally. Accordingly, during the quarter, I completed the restructuring of our global executive leadership and company structure by removing a layer of management between the corporate and brand levels, I now have the leads of all 6 of our major brands representing over 90% of our capacity reporting to me. This is up from one brand and less than 1/3 of our capacity previously.

為了實現這一目標，我們還需要確保我們的品牌在組織上取得成功。因此，在本季度，我完成了全球高管領導層和公司結構的重組，取消了公司層和品牌層之間的一層管理層，現在我擁有我們所有 6 個主要品牌的領導力，占我們產能的 90% 以上向我匯報。這比一個品牌有所增加，而且還不到我們之前產能的 1/3。

This will facilitate more direct engagement between me and our brand leaders. To provide me with more bandwidth to do this, I also consolidated several corporate functions under fewer leaders, streamlining our organization. While this leaves me with the same number of direct reports overall, these changes make for a more nimble and accountable organizational structure better able to respond to market opportunities.

這將促進我和我們的品牌領導者之間更直接的接觸。為了給我提供更多的能力來完成這項工作，我還整合了幾個公司職能，由更少的領導者領導，從而精簡了我們的組織。雖然這使我的直接報告總體數量相同，但這些變化使組織結構更加靈活和負責任，能夠更好地應對市場機會。

And we are also positioned to work smarter, excluding sales and sales support. Our shore side staff count is down 18% from 2019. And the team is executing across the board at a high level. I recognize that we need to make sure we are doing our part to make Carnival Corporation an amazing place to work and grow each team member's career. And so we are driving initiatives across the board, ship and shore to meet our long-term goal of being travel and leisure's employer of choice, and it is really showing. The improvement we've seen in our internal metrics on employee satisfaction and culture improvement have been phenomenal.

我們還致力於更智能地工作，不包括銷售和銷售支持。我們的岸上員工數量比 2019 年減少了 18%。團隊的全面執行力很高。我認識到，我們需要確保儘自己的一份力量，使嘉年華公司成為一個令人驚嘆的工作場所並發展每個團隊成員的職業生涯。因此，我們正在全面推動船上和岸上的舉措，以實現我們成為旅遊和休閒首選雇主的長期目標，這一點確實得到了體現。我們在員工滿意度和文化改進方面的內部指標取得了驚人的進步。

Turning from our most important assets, our best-in-class people to our hardware. We are actively managing our diverse portfolio of world-class brands which are #1 or #2 in each of the largest markets for cruise travel. Following our portfolio and fleet optimization efforts, our capacity growth has been concentrated in our highest returning brand. Carnival Cruise Line, AIDA and P&O Cruises U.K. These efforts have also been driven by a purposeful reduction in our overall capacity growth, which combined with our strong and accelerating demand outlook supports further yield improvement, and we still retain the excitement from 14 newly delivered ships, representing nearly 25% of our capacity.

從我們最重要的資產、一流的人才轉向我們的硬件。我們正在積極管理我們多元化的世界級品牌組合，這些品牌在每個最大的郵輪旅行市場中排名第一或第二。經過我們的產品組合和機隊優化努力，我們的產能增長集中在回報率最高的品牌上。嘉年華遊輪公司、AIDA 和 P&O Cruises U.K. 這些努力也是由我們有目的地減少整體運力增長推動的，這與我們強勁且不斷加速的需求前景相結合，支持了產量的進一步提高，而且我們仍然保留了 14 艘新交付船舶的興奮感，占我們產能的近 25%。

Just this month, we completed the transfer of Costa Venezia to our highly successful Carnival Cruise Line brand, launching Fun Italian Style with a spectacular naming ceremony featuring our very first ship godfather, comedic icon, Jay Leno. I couldn't think of a better personification of Carnival Cruise Line than Jay Leno with his unpretentious and gregarious personality which aligns perfectly with the brand's target segment.

就在本月，我們完成了歌詩達威尼斯號向我們非常成功的嘉年華遊輪品牌的轉讓，推出了有趣的意大利風格，並舉行了由我們的第一艘船教父、喜劇偶像傑伊·萊諾 (Jay Leno) 主持的盛大命名儀式。我想不出比傑·雷諾 (Jay Leno) 更能代表嘉年華郵輪的人了，他樸實、合群的個性與該品牌的目標市場完美契合。

Keep it seamlessly with Carnival Cruise Lines brand ambassadors who help amplify Carnival's messaging and appeal such as its Chief Culinary Officer, Emeril Lagasse, Chief Phone Officer, Shaquille O'Neal; and the Mayor of Flavortown himself, Guy Fieri. So far, Fun Italian Style has generated 1.5 million earned media impressions.

與嘉年華遊輪品牌大使保持無縫關係，幫助放大嘉年華的信息和吸引力，例如首席烹飪官 Emeril Lagasse、首席電話官 Shaquille O'Neal；以及弗萊弗敦市長蓋伊·費里 (Guy Fieri) 本人。迄今為止，Fun Italian Style 已獲得 150 萬次媒體曝光。

The instant success of Carnival's Fun Italian Style supports the entry of Venezia, the second cost to ship transferring over to Carnival Cruise Line next year. These transfers are part of our portfolio management strategy, which is contributing to Carnival Cruise Lines capacity, growing 22% more than pre-pause expectations and cost us capacity being reduced by 36% compared to pre-pause expectations.

嘉年華樂趣意大利風格的立即成功支持了威尼斯號的進入，這是明年轉移到嘉年華郵輪公司的第二艘成本船。這些轉移是我們投資組合管理戰略的一部分，該戰略有助於嘉年華遊輪公司的運力比暫停前的預期增長 22%，並使我們的運力比暫停前的預期減少 36%。

The added capacity to Carnival Cruise Line will not only generate outsized returns for the company, but rightsizing the Costa brand is also having the desired effect of supporting its revenue profile confirmed by recent booking and pricing trends. We remain committed to our strategy of owning a portfolio of world-class brands, many of which are truly dedicated to specific markets. And it's clear the strength of this portfolio is now shifting into high gear.

嘉年華郵輪公司運力的增加不僅將為公司帶來巨額回報，而且歌詩達品牌的規模調整也將產生預期的效果，支持其收入狀況，這已由最近的預訂和定價趨勢證實。我們仍然致力於擁有世界一流品牌組合的戰略，其中許多品牌真正致力於特定市場。很明顯，該投資組合的實力現在正在進入高速發展階段。

In fact, with respect to our European brands, bookings taken in the second quarter for the European deployment for each of the third and fourth quarters, achieved double-digit percentage increases in both volume and price compared to 2019. This is also supported by our homeporting strategy that puts nearly 75% of our capacity where our brands guests live. We are also working to further leverage and monetize our industry-leading land-based assets in the Caribbean and Alaska. We are leaning into our strategic advantage in the Caribbean with the expansion of (inaudible), consistently voted among the best private islands and the development of our largest Caribbean destination yet, Grand Bahama port. It's being designed to deliver wow factors tailored to Carnival Cruise Line guests to drive higher revenue yields and margins. It's also strategically located to deliver a wide array of lower fuel consumption itineraries, furthering our carbon reduction efforts.

事實上，就我們的歐洲品牌而言，與 2019 年相比，第二季度歐洲部署的預訂量和價格均實現了兩位數百分比增長。這也得到了我們的支持。母港戰略將我們近 75% 的運力放在我們品牌客人居住的地方。我們還致力於進一步利用我們在加勒比海和阿拉斯加行業領先的陸地資產並實現貨幣化。隨著（聽不清）不斷被評選為最佳私人島嶼的擴建以及我們迄今為止最大的加勒比目的地大巴哈馬港的開發，我們正在利用我們在加勒比地區的戰略優勢。它旨在為嘉年華遊輪公司的客人提供量身定制的驚喜因素，以提高收入和利潤。它還地理位置優越，可提供各種低油耗行程，進一步推進我們的碳減排工作。

Our Caribbean destinations already serve about 5.5 million of our brand's guests each year. And upon completion, Grand port will push that to 7.5 million annually.

我們的加勒比目的地每年已為我們品牌的約 550 萬名客人提供服務。竣工後，Grand port 將使年吞吐量達到 750 萬人次。

We also own cruising in Alaska with an unmatched strategic footprint across hotels, rail and motor coaches to deliver unique land sea packages of a lifetime as well as the most itineraries by far, featuring the iconic Glacier Bay. We plan to lean even more into marketing the benefits of all of these assets.

我們還在阿拉斯加擁有遊輪業務，在酒店、鐵路和長途汽車方面擁有無與倫比的戰略足跡，提供一生難忘的獨特陸海套餐以及迄今為止最多的行程，其中包括標誌性的冰川灣。我們計劃更加註重營銷所有這些資產的好處。

Turning to our capital structure. As we indicated on our last call, we have now begun deleveraging our balance sheet and are already $1.4 billion off the peak. During the quarter, we used excess liquidity to opportunistically prepay over $1 billion of debt, while still retaining $7.3 billion of liquidity, which we expect to ratchet down as we rebuild our balance sheet over time. We remain disciplined in making capital allocation decisions and our lowest order book in decades provides a pathway for further deleveraging.

轉向我們的資本結構。正如我們在上次電話會議中表示的那樣，我們現在已經開始對資產負債表進行去槓桿化，並且已經比峰值減少了 14 億美元。本季度，我們利用過剩流動性機會性地提前償還了超過 10 億美元的債務，同時仍保留了 73 億美元的流動性，隨著時間的推移，我們預計流動性將隨著我們重建資產負債表而逐漸減少。我們在製定資本配置決策時仍然遵守紀律，數十年來最低的訂單量為進一步去槓桿化提供了途徑。

We are clearly gaining momentum on an upward trajectory, positioning us well to deliver strong profitability and rebuild our financial fortress.

我們顯然正在獲得上升勢頭，這使我們能夠實現強勁的盈利能力並重建我們的金融堡壘。

We are already executing on our strategy with a demonstrated ability to grow revenue by taking up ticket prices even while maintaining record onboard spending levels, building occupancy and growing capacity. We are implementing a range of initiatives to capture incremental demand for cruise vacations and working hard to close the outrageous and are warranted 25% to 50% value gap to land-based offerings over time. We are well positioned to do so given our high satisfaction and low penetration levels. And we are working hard to mitigate 4 years of inflation, maintain our industry-leading unit costs, all while reinvesting in advertising and sales support to build future demand.

我們已經在執行我們的戰略，並展示了通過提高票價來增加收入的能力，同時保持創紀錄的機上支出水平、增加入住率和增加運力。我們正在實施一系列舉措，以抓住郵輪度假的增量需求，並努力消除離譜的情況，並保證隨著時間的推移，與陸上產品的價值差距將達到 25% 至 50%。鑑於我們的高滿意度和低滲透率，我們完全有能力做到這一點。我們正在努力減輕四年來的通貨膨脹，保持行業領先的單位成本，同時對廣告和銷售支持進行再投資，以建立未來的需求。

We are focused on the durable revenue growth and margin improvement that will deliver on our SEA Change program, propel us on the path to delevering and investment-grade leverage metrics, and drive the continued shift of the enterprise value of our company from debt holders back to equity holders.

我們專注於持久的收入增長和利潤率改善，這將實現我們的SEA變革計劃，推動我們走上去槓桿化和投資級槓桿指標的道路，並推動我們公司的企業價值從債務持有人手中持續轉移給股東。

I can't end without once again thanking our travel agent partners for their support and our best-in-class people ship and shore who deliver unforgettable happiness every day by providing extraordinary cruise vacations to our guests while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sail, place we visits and life we touch.

最後，我必須再次感謝我們的旅行社合作夥伴的支持，以及我們一流的船岸人員，他們每天為我們的客人提供非凡的郵輪假期，同時尊重我們航行的每一個海洋的完整性，為我們的客人帶來難忘的幸福，我們去過的地方和我們接觸過的生活。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to David.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Josh. Before I begin, please note all of my references to ticket prices, net per diems, net yields and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated. I'll start today with a summary of our 2023 second quarter results. Then I'll provide a recap of our cumulative advanced book position. Next, I'll give some color on our 2023 full year June guidance and finish up describing the impact of our SEA Change program on our financial position.

謝謝你，喬什。在開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，否則我對票價、每日淨津貼、淨收益和調整後不含燃料的遊輪成本的所有引用均採用固定匯率。今天我將首先總結 2023 年第二季度的業績。然後我將回顧一下我們累積的高級圖書位置。接下來，我將對我們的 2023 年全年 6 月指導進行一些闡述，並最後描述我們的 SEA 變革計劃對我們財務狀況的影響。

As Josh indicated, in the second quarter, we outperformed our guidance. For the second quarter, our adjusted EBITDA was $681 million at the high end of our March guidance range. The improvement was driven by $108 million of favorability in revenue from higher ticket prices.

正如喬什指出的那樣，第二季度我們的表現超出了我們的指導。第二季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.81 億美元，處於 3 月份指導範圍的上限。這一改善是由票價上漲帶來的 1.08 億美元收入優惠推動的。

Net per diems were up 7.5%, and 4.5 points higher than the midpoint of our March guidance range. In fact, second quarter revenues of $4.9 billion was a record and we achieved a significant milestone with net yields turning positive as compared to 2019. However, our revenue favorability was partially offset by a $13 million unfavorable net impact from higher fuel prices and currency, and $52 million of unfavorability in adjusted cruise costs without fuel due to the timing of expenses between the quarters as well as other factors that will impact our cost guidance for the full year.

淨每日津貼增長 7.5%，比我們 3 月份指導範圍的中值高 4.5 個百分點。事實上，第二季度收入達到 49 億美元，創歷史新高，我們實現了一個重要的里程碑，與 2019 年相比，淨收益率轉為正數。然而，我們的收入優勢被燃油價格和貨幣上漲帶來的 1300 萬美元不利淨影響部分抵消。由於各季度之間的費用時間安排以及其他將影響我們全年成本指導的因素，調整後的不含燃料的遊輪成本將產生 5200 萬美元的不利影響。

Turning to our cumulative advanced book position. For the remainder of 2023, our cumulative advanced book position is at higher prices when compared to strong 2019 pricing. Despite headwinds from the loss of St. Petersburg as a marquee destination due to the suspension of cruises to Russia and normalized for future cruise credits with a booked occupancy position that is near the high end of the historical range. With the strength in booking volumes above 2019 levels, we are in a great position with less inventory remaining to sell for 2023 as compared to 2019 to achieve our guidance despite the 5.7% capacity increase in the second half of the year.

轉向我們累積的高級圖書位置。在 2023 年剩餘時間內，與 2019 年的強勁定價相比，我們累積的高級賬面頭寸價格較高。儘管由於前往俄羅斯的郵輪暫停而導致聖彼得堡失去作為主要目的地的不利因素，並且未來的郵輪積分正常化，預訂入住率接近歷史範圍的高端。由於預訂量高於 2019 年水平，儘管下半年運力增加了 5.7%，但與 2019 年相比，2023 年剩餘待售庫存較少，因此我們處於有利地位，可以實現我們的指導。

Next, I will give some color on our 2023 full year June guidance. Full year 2023 occupancy is expected to be 100% or higher as we continue to close the gap each quarter on occupancy levels as compared to 2019 which is at the higher end of the historical range. On the pricing front, we expect net per diems to be up 5.5% to 6.5% for the full year 2023 and compared to a strong 2019, which is 2.5 points higher than March guidance based on the acceleration of booking trends we saw during the second quarter.

接下來，我將對 2023 年全年 6 月指引進行一些闡述。 2023 年全年入住率預計將達到 100% 或更高，因為我們將繼續縮小每個季度入住率水平與 2019 年（歷史區間高端）的差距。在定價方面，我們預計 2023 年全年的每日淨每日津貼將比 2019 年的強勁增長 5.5% 至 6.5%，根據我們在第二季度看到的預訂趨勢的加速，這比 3 月份的指導高出 2.5 個百分點四分之一。

We increased our guidance for the second half of 2023 by over 2.5 points, substantially all of the second half improvement in net per diems is driven by passenger ticket revenue on both sides of the Atlantic. We do see a continuation of strong onboard revenue trends we have been experiencing, which were included in our previous guidance.

我們將 2023 年下半年的指引提高了 2.5 個百分點以上，下半年淨每日津貼的改善基本上全部由大西洋兩岸的客運機票收入推動。我們確實看到了我們一直在經歷的強勁船上收入趨勢的延續，這已包含在我們之前的指導中。

Now turning to costs. Off the base of our industry-leading cost structure, adjusted cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day or ALBD, for the full year 2023 versus 2019 are now expected to be up 10% to 11%. This is 1.5 points higher than our March guidance. The change was driven by 3 factors: first, increases in various incentive compensation programs reflecting the expected improvement in the company's current and long-term performance consistent with June guidance and the SEA Change program are worth 0.5 point; second, further investments in advertising were 0.2 point, which we believe will benefit 2024 by multiple times the investment; and third, a slower-than-expected ramp down in inflationary pressures than previously anticipated, particularly in the area of port costs, freight, crew travel due to air cost and crew compensation collectively worth 0.7 point.

現在轉向成本。基於我們行業領先的成本結構，調整後的遊輪成本（不包括每個可用下舖日或 ALBD 的燃油）預計 2023 年全年將比 2019 年增長 10% 至 11%。這比我們 3 月份的指導值高 1.5 個百分點。這一變化是由三個因素推動的：首先，各種激勵性薪酬計劃的增加反映了公司當前和長期業績的預期改善，與 6 月份的指導和 SEA 變革計劃一致，價值 0.5 個百分點；其次，廣告方面的進一步投資為0.2個百分點，我們認為這將使2024年受益於投資的數倍；第三，通脹壓力的下降速度比之前預期的要慢，特別是在港口成本、貨運、航空成本導致的船員旅行和船員薪酬方面，總計下降了 0.7 個百分點。

While we are disappointed by the slower ramp down in inflation than previously anticipated, our 2.5-point increase in net per diem guidance far outweighs our cost guidance increase, improving margins and the bottom line. There is no doubt inflation has been a significant factor driving costs higher in 2023 versus 2019. However, let's not forget, we are talking about 4 years of inflation and our teams have managed the situation well, mitigating much of the inflationary impact. In fact, crew costs per available lower berth day in our June guidance are up less than 2% versus 2019 despite significant increases in airfares.

雖然我們對通脹下降速度慢於之前的預期感到失望，但我們將每日淨津貼指導上調 2.5 個百分點，遠遠超過了我們的成本指導增加，從而改善了利潤率和利潤。毫無疑問，通貨膨脹是導致 2023 年成本高於 2019 年的一個重要因素。但是，我們不要忘記，我們正在談論 4 年的通貨膨脹，我們的團隊很好地控制了情況，減輕了大部分通貨膨脹的影響。事實上，儘管機票價格大幅上漲，但在我們 6 月份的指導中，每個可用下舖日的船員成本與 2019 年相比上漲了不到 2%。

This is a testament to the ingenuity and creativity of our teams as well as the benefits of our scale around the globe. The details of depreciation and amortization, interest expense and fuel expense can be found in the earnings press release we issued earlier this morning in the section titled guidance, so I will not take the time to walk you through the numbers.

這證明了我們團隊的聰明才智和創造力以及我們在全球範圍內的規模優勢。折舊和攤銷、利息費用和燃料費用的詳細信息可以在我們今天早上早些時候發布的收益新聞稿中標題為“指導”的部分中找到，因此我不會花時間向您介紹這些數字。

However, I would like to point out that the increased confidence in our future drove us to use a portion of our liquidity to prepay $1.4 billion of variable rate debt mostly with 2023 and 2024 maturities, which combined with other factors, will reduce our interest expense for the year by over $80 million and leave us with approximately 80% of our debt having fixed interest rates protecting us from rising rates.

不過，我想指出的是，對未來信心的增強促使我們使用部分流動性來預付 14 億美元的浮動利率債務，其中大部分到期日為 2023 年和 2024 年，這與其他因素相結合，將減少我們的利息支出今年我們的債務增加了超過 8000 萬美元，我們大約 80% 的債務採用固定利率，以保護我們免受利率上升的影響。

Putting all of these factors together, we expect $4.1 billion to $4.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2023, which is above the high end of the previous guidance. We expect to reach another milestone in the third quarter 2023 as we return to profitability with adjusted EPS expected to be in the range of $0.70 to $0.77 per share.

綜合所有這些因素，我們預計 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 41 億至 42.5 億美元，高於之前指引的上限。我們預計將在 2023 年第三季度實現另一個里程碑，恢復盈利，調整後每股收益預計在 0.70 美元至 0.77 美元之間。

And now I will finish up describing the impact of our SEA Change program on our financial position. As I said last quarter, I feel great as I report that we are beyond the peak of our total debt. Total debt peaked at over $35 billion in the first quarter of 2023 when we drew on the export credit for P&O Cruises Arvia at the time of delivery. We believe with over $7 billion of liquidity, our improving EBITDA and our return to profitability in the second half of 2023, we are very well positioned to pay down debt maturities for the foreseeable future.

現在我將結束對 SEA 變革計劃對我們財務狀況的影響的描述。正如我上個季度所說，當我報告我們已經超出了總債務的峰值時，我感覺很好。 2023 年第一季度，當我們在交付時利用 P&O Cruises Arvia 的出口信貸時，總債務達到了超過 350 億美元的峰值。我們相信，憑藉超過 70 億美元的流動性、不斷改善的 EBITDA 以及 2023 年下半年恢復盈利的能力，我們完全有能力在可預見的未來償還到期債務。

With the debt prepayments announced in today's earnings release, we now expect our total debt at year-end to be below $33 billion.

隨著今天財報中宣布的債務預付款，我們現在預計年底的債務總額將低於 330 億美元。

Now looking beyond 2023 using the SEA Change program targets as our guide. We expect cash flow from operations will average over $5 billion per year during the next 3 years, 2024 through 2026 and with optimized non-new build capital commitments and the lowest new build order book in decades, annual CapEx, net of the $3 billion of export credits will average less than $2 billion per year during the next 3 years. This will result in an average of over $3 billion in annual adjusted free cash flow to reduce debt, driving more than $8 billion in total debt reduction through 2026, inclusive of the $3 billion of export credit financing drawn during the period and over $10 billion of debt reduction from the $35 billion peak in first quarter 2023.

現在，以 SEA 變革計劃目標為指導，展望 2023 年以後的情況。我們預計，在未來 3 年（2024 年至 2026 年）中，運營現金流將平均每年超過 50 億美元，並且優化非新建資本承諾和幾十年來最低的新建訂單，年度資本支出（扣除 30 億美元的資本支出）未來3年出口信貸平均每年將低於20億美元。這將導致平均每年超過 30 億美元的調整後自由現金流用於減少債務，從而推動到 2026 年總債務減少超過 80 億美元，其中包括在此期間提取的 30 億美元出口信貸融資和超過 100 億美元的債務。債務從 2023 年第一季度 350 億美元的峰值減少。

At the end of 2026, with a significantly lower level of debt and a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA per ALBD, we are expecting to approach investment-grade leverage metrics. Our SEA Change program from debt reduction alone will transfer over $10 billion of enterprise value from debt holders to shareholders, which represents approximately $8 per share. On top of that, it will also deliver improved operating metrics and an adjusted ROIC of 12%, representing the highest level of ROIC in almost 2 decades.

到 2026 年底，隨著債務水平顯著降低，並且每 ALBD 的調整後 EBITDA 增加 50%，我們預計將接近投資級槓桿指標。我們的 SEA Change 計劃僅從債務減免就可以將超過 100 億美元的企業價值從債務持有人轉移到股東，相當於每股 8 美元。最重要的是，它還將提供改進的運營指標和 12% 的調整後投資回報率，這是近 20 年來投資回報率的最高水平。

Before I turn the call over to the operator, let me remind you to visit our website for our second quarter earnings press release and presentation.

在我將電話轉接給接線員之前，請允許我提醒您訪問我們的網站以獲取我們的第二季度收益新聞稿和演示文稿。

Now operator, let's open the call for questions.

現在接線員，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Robin Farley。

(inaudible).

（聽不清）。

Robin, can you hear me?

羅賓，你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's a little hard to hear your question. You're coming in and out. Sorry.

聽你的問題有點困難。你進來又出去。對不起。

Is this -- hopefully this is a little bit better?

這是——希望這會好一點嗎？

Yes. Thanks.

是的。謝謝。

Great. So I wanted to ask a question about this 3-year guidance. But first, just a quick clarification on the comments about 2024 bookings. In the release you mentioned, it's ahead of volume and you say strong prices. Is it fair to assume that strong means that '24 price on the books is up above '23 price? I just want to clarify that strong means up year-over-year, just that briefly.

偉大的。所以我想問一個關於這個三年指導的問題。但首先，我們簡單澄清一下有關 2024 年預訂的評論。在您提到的發布中，它超出了成交量，並且您說價格強勁。假設“強”意味著 '24 的賬面價格高於 '23 的價格是否公平？我只是想簡單地澄清一下，“強勁”意味著逐年上升。

And then on your 3-year targets, just thinking about what is kind of implied yield growth to get there. It seems like -- and I haven't been able to do the full math, just given the time constraints, but it looks like at least 7 points of yield growth between '23 and '26 would just come from the occupancy gap closing, maybe even kind of 7 to 10 points based on the comments today. And can you sort of walk us through what you're expecting in terms of price increase or per diem increase in that period kind of implied in your EBITDA guidance for '26.

然後，關於您的三年目標，只需考慮實現該目標所需的隱含收益率增長。考慮到時間限制，我無法進行完整的數學計算，但看起來 23 至 26 年間至少 7 個百分點的收益率增長將來自於入住率差距的縮小，根據今天的評論，甚至可能有 7 到 10 分。您能否向我們介紹一下您對 26 年 EBITDA 指導中隱含的該時期價格上漲或每日津貼上漲的預期。

Got it. So with respect to 2024, the book position at record levels at strong price. What we're going to do is we're going to give you some more color on that when we get into our next quarter, and we'll talk more in depth about 2024 overall in the first half. But suffice it to say, the brands are doing a very good job at getting ahead and doing it at pricing that we're happy with and still a long way to go for 2024 and a lot to play for. So we're very pleased with the progress that we've been making while still ratcheting down on the occupancy, as we've talked about over the course of every quarter this year. So the trajectory is very, very good.

知道了。因此，到 2024 年，賬面倉位將處於創紀錄水平，且價格堅挺。我們要做的是，當我們進入下一個季度時，我們將為您提供更多信息，並且我們將在上半年更深入地討論 2024 年的整體情況。但我只想說，這些品牌在取得領先地位方面做得非常好，並且定價我們很滿意，但 2024 年還有很長的路要走，還有很多值得努力的地方。因此，我們對在不斷降低入住率的同時取得的進展感到非常滿意，正如我們在今年每個季度所討論的那樣。所以軌跡非常非常好。

With respect to the 3-year targets, it's probably on the low end of what you're talking about for occupancy, and we expect to make up -- it's probably sub-7 points at this point, but pretty close around there. We're probably going to make -- probably -- I expect to make all of that up in 2024 as we get back to normalized operations. On top of that, we're looking at low to mid-single digits with respect to price increases as we get from '24, '25 and '26. And that type of profile we've got experience with as we look back over the period from 2015 to 2019, so we feel real good about our ability to be able to make those types of step over time.

就 3 年目標而言，它可能處於您所說的入住率的低端，我們希望能夠彌補——目前可能低於 7 點，但非常接近。我們可能會——可能——我希望在 2024 年我們恢復正常運營時彌補所有這些。最重要的是，我們預計 24 年、25 年和 26 年的價格上漲幅度為中低個位數。當我們回顧 2015 年至 2019 年期間時，我們已經獲得了這種類型的經驗，因此我們對自己能夠隨著時間的推移實現這些類型的步驟感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

Congrats on the solid quarter and the change in the full year outlook. So Josh, I want to go back to actually the last question there in the SEA Change program. So you talked about that low to mid-single-digit kind of bump in yields. But can you also maybe help us think about how you're thinking on the -- from a cost perspective, too. So are we kind of thinking about a low to mid-single digit kind of bump in yields and then maybe like a 1- to 2-point spread between net yield growth in NCC. Is that kind of the right way to think about this?

祝賀季度的穩健發展和全年前景的變化。喬什，我想回到 SEA 變革計劃中的最後一個問題。所以你談到了收益率低到中個位數的增長。但您是否也可以幫助我們從成本角度考慮一下您的想法。因此，我們是否會考慮收益率出現低至中個位數的增長，然後可能會出現 NCC 淨收益率增長 1 到 2 個百分點的差距。這是思考這個問題的正確方式嗎？

I don't know if I'm talking to you anymore, Steve. But putting that aside, nice to hear from you. We -- basically, we'd expect to be getting back to the norm, which is low single digit cost increases. So we expect a nice differential between what we'd be expecting on the yield side and what we'd be expecting on the cost side. There is -- as we think about the ins and outs, there's good news with the occupancy, but it does come with a little bit of bad news, which is that type of step-up in occupancy will have a bit of a cost drag, which we're very happy to take. We're still going to be thinking through our advertising planning as it gets to '24 and beyond. And as you've heard us talk about before, that's been very successful. And so we'll come to more concrete plans as we get into the fall for the following year. And so there are some particular things as we think about our trajectory. But overall, you can expect a -- I would expect a difference between those growth rates.

我不知道我是否還在和你說話，史蒂夫。但拋開這些不談，很高興收到你的來信。基本上，我們預計會回到正常水平，即較低的個位數成本增長。因此，我們預計收益率方面的預期與成本方面的預期之間存在很大差異。當我們考慮來龍去脈時，入住率是個好消息，但也有一些壞消息，那就是入住率的提高會帶來一些成本拖累，我們很高興接受。到 24 世紀及以後，我們仍然會仔細考慮我們的廣告計劃。正如您之前聽到我們談論的那樣，這非常成功。因此，當我們進入下一年的秋季時，我們將製定更具體的計劃。因此，當我們思考我們的軌跡時，有一些特殊的事情。但總體而言，我預計這些增長率之間會存在差異。

Okay. And then since you already don't like me, I'm going to stay on costs a little bit. But you guys have now -- you've raised your cost guidance 2 quarters in a row. And look, I understand the stock comp stuff, I understand the inflationary pressures. But first of all, I just want to make sure -- I hope that you guys now have a good handle on costs for the remainder of the year and more so around the advertising investments that you mentioned in your prepared remarks and how you expect those to pay off over time. I guess I'm just a little bit confused about what we're seeing today from a demand perspective versus the fact that you need to market more aggressively. So any color there would be helpful.

好的。既然你已經不喜歡我了，我就繼續維持一點成本。但你們現在已經連續兩個季度提高了成本指導。看，我了解股票比較，我了解通脹壓力。但首先，我只是想確定一下——我希望你們現在能夠很好地控制今年剩餘時間的成本，尤其是你們在準備好的發言中提到的廣告投資以及你們對這些投資的期望隨著時間的推移得到回報。我想我只是對我們今天從需求角度看到的情況與您需要更積極地進行營銷的事實有點困惑。所以任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. So with respect to the comments about looking at the fourth quarter advertising spend and maybe taking it up for '24, there's 2 things. There's getting the occupancy and getting it at a price that we want to get it at. And we do think that the advertising spend and the way we've been doing it has been effective, not just on getting the volume but getting it to a place where we can take the price up to where we want to get it to. And so we will continue to look at that to see where we can get to, to be honest with you.

當然。因此，關於查看第四季度廣告支出以及可能將其納入 24 年的評論，有兩件事。我們要獲得入住率並以我們想要的價格獲得它。我們確實認為廣告支出和我們一直在做的方式是有效的，不僅在獲得銷量方面，而且在達到我們可以將價格提高到我們想要的水平方面。因此，老實說，我們將繼續關注這個問題，看看我們能達到什麼目標。

So I wouldn't look at advertising as a one and done. We've somehow gotten back to something. We want to maximize, we want to optimize. And so we're going to keep doing -- sorry, there's some sirens in the background here. So we'll keep thinking that through and ratcheting up or ratcheting back depending on its effectiveness.

所以我不會把廣告視為一件已經完成的事情。我們以某種方式回到了一些事情上。我們想要最大化，我們想要優化。所以我們要繼續做——抱歉，這裡的背景中有一些警報。因此，我們將繼續思考這一點，並根據其有效性逐步增加或減少。

Our next question comes from James Hardiman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯·哈迪曼。

Hopefully, everything is going okay over there.

希望那裡一切順利。

I'm in New York. That's all you need to know, right?

我在紐約。這就是你需要知道的全部，對吧？

That's all I need to know. Exactly. Just a clarification on the 3-year target math. I get to about $6.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026. And then -- is that the right math? And then also, as we think about getting back to investment grade, 3.5x leverage seems to be the number that would presumably get you there. Are those 2 generally in line with how you're thinking about EBITDA and leverage metrics for '26?

這就是我需要知道的一切。確切地。只是對 3 年目標數學的澄清。我得到的 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 約為 67 億美元。然後——這是正確的數學嗎？此外，當我們考慮回到投資級別時，3.5 倍的槓桿率似乎是可以讓您達到目標的數字。這兩個總體上是否符合您對 26 年 EBITDA 和槓桿指標的看法？

Yes, you got it right on the head.

是的，你說得對。

Got it. Really helpful. And then you gave us a bunch of good math in terms of how you think about paying down debt, both this year and through 2026. Maybe walk us through where you see the cash balance going? I think you said you expect total debt to finish the year -- this year at $33 billion. What's the net debt number? Or what's the cash balance that you expect? And then similar question for 2026. I think you called out $8 billion total debt reduction. What's that look like on a net debt basis?

知道了。真的很有幫助。然後，您向我們提供了一系列關於您如何看待今年和 2026 年償還債務的數學計算。也許可以向我們介紹一下您認為現金餘額的去向？我想你說過你預計今年的債務總額將達到 330 億美元。淨債務數字是多少？或者您期望的現金餘額是多少？然後是 2026 年的類似問題。我認為您呼籲削減 80 億美元的債務總額。按淨債務計算，情況如何？

Yes. So James, the cash balance should start coming down over time. You're trying to get into a level of precision that goes beyond our forecasting. Remember, it's not just debt and cash. Remember, there's customer deposits, other balance sheet items. But putting it all together, our liquidity at the end of the second quarter was $7.3 billion, and we do expect to see that decline over time.

是的。所以詹姆斯，隨著時間的推移，現金餘額應該開始下降。您正試圖達到超出我們預測的精確度。請記住，這不僅僅是債務和現金。請記住，還有客戶存款和其他資產負債表項目。但總的來說，第二季度末我們的流動性為 73 億美元，而且我們預計隨著時間的推移，流動性將會下降。

Pre-pause, we were targeting $2 billion to $2.5 billion. And as we rebuild our financial fortress, we will bring our level of liquidity down to that level. Keeping in mind that most of the time, a good portion of our liquidity will wind up to be the undrawn revolver. So even if we have $4 billion of liquidity, it may only be $2 billion of cash or something like that. So we do see the cash balance coming down, but the level of precision by year by quarter is very difficult to project.

暫停前，我們的目標是 20 億至 25 億美元。當我們重建金融堡壘時，我們將把流動性水平降低到這個水平。請記住，大多數時候，我們的流動性的很大一部分最終將成為未提取的左輪手槍。因此，即使我們有 40 億美元的流動性，也可能只是 20 億美元的現金或類似的東西。因此，我們確實看到現金餘額在下降，但逐季度的精確程度很難預測。

But your math in all the numbers are -- is good and we're continued and confident that we can work through and achieve those.

但你對所有數字的數學計算都很好，我們將繼續努力並相信我們能夠解決並實現這些目標。

One more point of clarification. So in the queues, there's a mention of $1.7 billion of reserve funds from customer deposits and other assets. What's the status of that, the opportunity to sort of bring that onto the cash balance?

還要澄清一點。因此，在隊列中，提到了來自客戶存款和其他資產的 17 億美元儲備資金。其狀態如何，有機會將其計入現金餘額嗎？

Yes, we are pretty confident that, that will be ratcheting down nicely, and we should get the majority of that back in -- off of that line item and into our cash, the majority by the end of next year and the rest of it in the following year. So we're making good progress.

是的，我們非常有信心，這將很好地減少，我們應該將其中的大部分從該行項目中收回並轉入我們的現金，大部分在明年年底前以及其餘部分在接下來的一年裡。所以我們正在取得良好進展。

Our next question comes from Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的弗雷德·懷特曼。

Do the '26 targets assume that you return to China? And if so, what are you sort of baking in there?

'26 目標是否假設您返回中國？如果是這樣，你在那裡烘烤什麼？

No, there is no assumption in these numbers that we return to China. As you know, Costa was our brand that was our China platform and through our efforts at portfolio management, we were able to take the tonnage and move them to Carnival Cruise Line, which has gone fantastic. As a matter of fact, Carnival Fun Italian Style met our expectations and frankly exceeded them with respect to how it was embraced by the Carnival guests so far. And so frankly speaking, our assets are in a good place, and they're yielding more than they would had we stayed the course, I believe.

不，這些數字並沒有假設我們返回中國。如您所知，歌詩達是我們的品牌，也是我們的中國平台，通過我們在投資組合管理方面的努力，我們能夠將這些噸位轉移到嘉年華郵輪公司，這一切都非常棒。事實上，嘉年華樂趣意大利風格滿足了我們的期望，並且坦率地說，就迄今為止嘉年華客人對它的歡迎程度而言，它超出了我們的期望。坦率地說，我們的資產狀況良好，而且我相信，它們的收益比我們堅持到底的情況要高。

So we're very excited about China opening up for international travel with cruise companies, and we think that's a great thing for the industry. But the fact is we're going to be probably on the sidelines of that for a few years because our assets are right where we want them to be. And we can always relook at that. Obviously, our assets are mobile, and we'll do that, but we feel real good.

因此，我們對中國與郵輪公司一起開放國際旅行感到非常興奮，我們認為這對該行業來說是一件好事。但事實是，我們可能會在幾年內對此保持觀望，因為我們的資產就在我們想要的地方。我們總是可以重新審視這一點。顯然，我們的資產是移動的，我們會這樣做，但我們感覺非常好。

Makes sense. And then last quarter, you guys talked about exiting the quarter, some improving performance out of Europe. It sounds like based on everything that you've said today that, that trend has continued and maybe even accelerated. But can you just frame sort of where you see the European cruise recovery versus what you've seen in North America and how to think about that in the back half?

說得通。然後上個季度，你們談到了退出本季度，歐洲的業績有所改善。聽起來，根據您今天所說的一切，這種趨勢仍在繼續，甚至可能加速。但您能否簡單描述一下歐洲郵輪復甦與北美郵輪復甦的對比，以及如何看待後半段的情況？

Yes. So you heard me in my prepared remarks, and I was talking about the fact that over this record second quarter that we had in bookings, Europe was right there alongside North America. And the really encouraging thing about that in our European brands profile this last quarter.

是的。所以你們聽到了我準備好的講話，我正在談論這樣一個事實：在預訂量創紀錄的第二季度，歐洲與北美並駕齊驅。上個季度我們的歐洲品牌概況中確實令人鼓舞。

On the bookings side, double digits in both volume and price versus 2019, specifically for the European itineraries, which, by the way, for our European brands is the vast majority of their deployments. You're talking more or less in the second half of the year. It's probably about 90%, give or take.

在預訂方面，與 2019 年相比，預訂量和價格都實現了兩位數，特別是歐洲行程，順便說一句，對於我們的歐洲品牌來說，這佔了絕大多數的部署。你們或多或少都在談論下半年。大概是90%左右，無論給予還是接受。

And so our strategy of having our ships deployed with really strong brands, the strongest we've got in Europe, the #1 brand in Germany, the #1 brand in the U.K., #1 or 2 in Italy and France and Spain, doing that and catering to those markets specifically is really starting to bear fruit. And so the trajectory is fantastic. And when you think about the improvement that our European brands made to think about the first quarter versus the second quarter, how are they comparing against '19 in the first quarter? And how are they comparing against '19 in the second quarter with respect to their yields? We saw a 10-point improvement in the comparison for our European brands.

因此，我們的戰略是讓我們的船舶部署真正強大的品牌，我們在歐洲擁有的最強品牌，德國第一品牌，英國第一品牌，意大利、法國和西班牙第一或第二品牌，專門針對這些市場的服務確實開始取得成果。所以軌跡非常棒。當您考慮我們的歐洲品牌在第一季度與第二季度相比所取得的進步時，它們與 19 年第一季度相比如何？與 19 年第二季度的收益率相比，他們的收益率如何？我們發現我們的歐洲品牌相比提高了 10 個百分點。

Our North American brands improved too, but much less than 10%. And that's not a bad thing for our North American brand. They just have been improving like wildfire over the last several quarters. And as we said, the European brands, they're catching up. They're catching up, and it's great to see that they've really started to pull everything forward.

我們的北美品牌也有所改善，但遠低於 10%。這對於我們的北美品牌來說並不是一件壞事。在過去的幾個季度裡，他們的進步就像野火一樣。正如我們所說，歐洲品牌正在迎頭趕上。他們正在迎頭趕上，很高興看到他們真的開始推動一切向前發展。

Our next question comes from Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

I want to talk a little bit about the booking curve. I know you guys are articulating that it's extending and there's always this contemplation on if there is some optimal pricing being left on the table with the extension of the booking curve. So can you talk about how you're thinking of managing that over the next few quarters?

我想談談預訂曲線。我知道你們都在明確表示它正在延長，並且總是會考慮隨著預訂曲線的延長是否會留下一些最佳定價。那麼您能談談您在接下來的幾個季度中如何管理這一問題嗎？

It's really a brand-by-brand question, right? Because there are definite dynamics for each brand about, hey, where are they in the booking curve? What does their capacity increase look like over the next 18 months? What source markets are they in? What's the state of the source market? So it's really hard to give you a holistic answer other than to say, holistically, all of our brands, their goal is obviously what's going to generate the most revenue when the ship leaves, right? That's it. And as we've been not only getting back to a normalized booking pattern, we've also been putting things out for sale even more to give our guests actually what they're demanding.

這確實是一個逐品牌的問題，對吧？因為每個品牌都有明確的動態，嘿，它們在預訂曲線中處於什麼位置？未來 18 個月他們的產能增長情況如何？他們位於哪些客源市場？客源市場狀況如何？因此，除了從整體上說，我們所有的品牌，他們的目標顯然是在船離開時產生最大收入之外，真的很難給你一個整體的答案，對嗎？就是這樣。由於我們不僅恢復了正常的預訂模式，我們還加大了促銷力度，以滿足客人的實際需求。

So I'd say the best answer I can give you is that each is very, very diligent in thinking about how to optimize for the variables that they have got. It's been very encouraging to see how far we can push it out. I would say there is a point where we'll stop. It's just not worth it to your statement about leaving it on the table. It's -- that's part of the equation. So it might not be a satisfactory answer for you, but the -- it's because it's complicated and there are a lot of factors to consider.

所以我想說，我能給你的最好答案是，每個人都非常非常勤奮地思考如何優化他們所擁有的變量。看到我們能把它推進到什麼程度，真是令人鼓舞。我想說，到了某個點我們就會停下來。對於你關於把它留在桌面上的聲明來說，這是不值得的。這是等式的一部分。所以這可能不是您滿意的答案，但因為它很複雜並且有很多因素需要考慮。

Of course. And then is there anything you'd like to add or elaborate on reorg and maybe where you think there were some opportunities to improve the structure of the business and how we might see that sort of come to play going forward?

當然。那麼對於重組，您有什麼想要補充或詳細說明的嗎？也許您認為有一些機會可以改善業務結構，以及我們如何看待這種情況在未來發揮作用？

Yes, sure. I think that there are purposes of how you organize the corporation with operating units and ideally with an operating unit, you're doing it because you're going to get scale within that operating unit. And if you're not getting the appropriate level of scale, then you're taking away from the nimbleness and agility and the ability for brands to move quickly to take advantage of opportunities. And so we -- I looked around and basically by being able to deconsolidate a couple of operating units and give them more nimbleness and flexibility and have a direct line of reporting directly into me, it speeds up the whole process, and it lets us act much quicker and much more, I would say, purposefully for the brand's needs.

是的，當然。我認為，如何組織具有運營單位的公司是有目的的，理想情況下是有一個運營單位，你這樣做是因為你將在該運營單位內獲得規模。如果你沒有達到適當的規模，那麼你就會失去品牌的靈活性和敏捷性以及快速採取行動以利用機會的能力。所以我們——我環顧四周，基本上通過能夠拆分幾個運營部門並賦予它們更多的靈活性和直接向我匯報的方式，它加快了整個過程，並且讓我們能夠採取行動我想說，更快、更多，是為了滿足品牌的需求。

At the same time, we did -- it's not just about giving the brands autonomy and nimbleness. We also pulled a few things up to the corporate level to support brands more holistically. So effectively, we -- in deconsolidating, we've benefited both scale on the corporate side and nimbleness for particular brands. And as a result, as you heard in my notes, I've now got -- it's actually 93% of the capacity that effectively reports directly to me through 6 of our presidents who lead that specific brand.

與此同時，我們做到了——這不僅僅是賦予品牌自主權和靈活性。我們還將一些事情提升到企業層面，以更全面地支持品牌。因此，在拆分過程中，我們有效地使公司規模和特定品牌的靈活性受益。結果，正如你在我的筆記中聽到的那樣，我現在擁有——實際上 93% 的能力是通過領導該特定品牌的 6 位總裁有效地直接向我匯報。

And finally, by having our 7% of capacities, which are great brands, but small, they can piggyback on a bigger brand. and it works very, very well. Q&R piggybacks on P&O Cruises in the U.K., Seabourn piggybacks on Holland America and P&O Australia can now do the same with Carnival Cruise Line, which are both full year players in Australia.

最後，通過擁有我們 7% 的產能（這些都是偉大的品牌，但規模較小），他們可以搭載更大的品牌。而且效果非常非常好。英國 P&O 遊輪上的 Q&R、荷美遊輪上的 Seabourn 和澳大利亞 P&O 現在可以對嘉年華遊輪公司做同樣的事情，這兩家遊輪都是澳大利亞的全年運營商。

Our next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的馬修·博斯。

Congrats on a nice quarter. So maybe if we dig a little deeper on the SEA Change plan, could you speak to the annual EBITDA glide path embedded in the 3-year plan? Or maybe specifically, help us to break down the 50% increase target as we think about the year-over-year opportunity in '24? Maybe just given the visibility that you have today, versus the level of improvement that you're embedding in the outer years within that 3-year plan?

恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。那麼，也許如果我們更深入地研究 SEA 變革計劃，您能否談談三年計劃中嵌入的年度 EBITDA 下滑路徑？或者俱體來說，當我們思考 24 年的同比機會時，幫助我們打破 50% 的增長目標？也許只是考慮到您今天所擁有的可見性，以及您在三年計劃的外部幾年中嵌入的改進水平？

Well, it's a tough question to answer since we're not giving you '24 guidance yet. So I'd say if we think about pluses and minuses for '24 and maybe we can start there. There's a lot of wind at our backs in 2024. The occupancy is going to be a big jump, as I talked about on one of the earlier calls, which is going to be a nice pickup in yields on top of what we would expect to be that low to mid-single digit price improvement.

嗯，這是一個很難回答的問題，因為我們還沒有給您 '24 指南。所以我想說，如果我們考慮一下 24 年的優缺點，也許我們可以從那裡開始。到 2024 年，我們將面臨很大的困難。正如我在之前的一次電話會議中談到的那樣，入住率將大幅上升，除了我們預期的收益之外，這將是收益率的大幅上升。是低到中個位數的價格改善。

The booking curve is in good shape. We're in the best book position in our history, all those commercial activities that I've talked about over the last several quarters are in full swing. The capacity that we have, we're about 5.5% capacity growth in 2024 versus 2023 and 2/3 of that goes to Carnival Cruise Line, which is -- it's our highest returning brand, which we're very excited about.

預訂曲線狀況良好。我們正處於歷史上最好的圖書位置，我在過去幾個季度談到的所有商業活動都在如火如荼地進行。與 2023 年相比，我們擁有的運力在 2024 年將增長約 5.5%，其中 2/3 流向嘉年華遊輪公司，這是我們回報率最高的品牌，我們對此感到非常興奮。

So we feel good about the trajectory and what we should expect some nice pickup in 2024. Now 2024 is not going to be without challenges. The Ukraine, we don't forecast that having a reversal such that we can get back to St. Petersburg and those really high yielding types of trades. We're not planning on China, as you've already heard me say, question mark, hopefully, energy security concerns won't come back. But I don't have a crystal ball there. We do have more dry docks in 2024. So there are pluses and minuses, frankly. There always are. We do feel good that we expect '24 to be a nice step-up versus where we are now because of the trajectory in getting back to normal and full and then pulling ahead.

因此，我們對發展軌跡感到滿意，並且預計 2024 年會出現一些不錯的回升。現在 2024 年不會沒有挑戰。烏克蘭，我們預計不會出現逆轉，使我們能夠回到聖彼得堡和那些真正高收益的交易類型。我們沒有針對中國的計劃，正如你已經聽到我說的，問號，希望能源安全問題不會再次出現。但我那裡沒有水晶球。到 2024 年，我們確實會有更多的干船塢。坦率地說，這既有優點也有缺點。總是有的。我們確實感覺很好，我們預計 24 年將比我們現在的情況有一個很好的進步，因為我們的軌跡是恢復正常和全面，然後繼續前進。

David, I'm not sure if there's anything you'd like to add with recent...

大衛，我不確定你最近是否有什麼要補充的……

Yes. The only thing I'll add to what you indicated, Josh, is the fact that going into the call, if you looked at consensus, it was similar to our annual step-up towards that $6.7 billion of EBITDA that James had calculated. So just take a look at that, and you can see, but that was going into the call.

是的。喬什，我要補充的唯一一點是，在電話會議中，如果你看一下共識，就會發現這與我們每年向詹姆斯計算的 67 億美元 EBITDA 邁進類似。所以只要看一下，你就可以看到，但這正在通話中。

Great. And then maybe just as a follow-up, Josh, as we think about historical profitability, and now your new delayered more simplified operating structure that you've laid out. I guess maybe as you think about this 3-year plan, particularly in the back end of that plan, what would you say? Or is there a way to rank maybe the areas of potential conservatism that are not in the plan?

偉大的。然後，也許只是作為後續行動，喬什，當我們考慮歷史盈利能力時，以及現在您所製定的新的延遲的更簡化的運營結構。我想也許當你思考這個三年計劃時，特別是在該計劃的後端，你會說什麼？或者有沒有辦法對計劃中未包含的潛在保守主義領域進行排名？

Rank, I wouldn't even begin to try. Look, we set out our -- we set out our targets about what we hope to meet and frankly, as you'd expect the CEO to say, I will strive to exceed showing a 50% growth in unit EBITDA which does not take into account capacity benefit in the EBITDA number. Getting to the highest points in ROIC and EBITDA in what will be just about 20 years, I think that that's a good trajectory. And we'll do our best, like I said, to go well beyond.

Rank，我什至都不會開始嘗試。聽著，我們制定了我們希望達到的目標，坦率地說，正如你所期望的首席執行官所說，我將努力超越單位 EBITDA 增長 50%，這沒有考慮到EBITDA 數字中的賬戶容量收益。在大約 20 年內達到 ROIC 和 EBITDA 的最高點，我認為這是一個很好的軌跡。正如我所說，我們將盡最大努力，超越一切。

I would expect -- I expect our margins to get back in line with historical norms. So that's certainly part of it. I'll let you take another crack at asking you in a different way, but that's probably the best I'll give it to you.

我預計——我預計我們的利潤率將恢復到歷史正常水平。所以這肯定是其中的一部分。我會讓你再嘗試以不同的方式詢問你，但這可能是我能給你的最好的答案。

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的帕特里克·斯科爾斯 (Patrick Scholes)。

Shifting gears a bit here, looking at your balance sheet. Last quarter, you had about 1 -- if I'm wrong, correct me, $1.7 billion of reserve funds from credit card processors. Where does that stand right now? And how should we think about that balance going forward? Is that still accumulating? And when would realistically, you might think that you'll be able to release that cash and I assume that would probably be used for debt reduction at that time?

這裡稍微改變一下，看看你的資產負債表。上個季度，信用卡處理機構提供了大約 17 億美元的儲備資金，如果我錯了，請糾正我。現在情況如何？我們應該如何考慮未來的平衡？還在積累嗎？實際上，您可能會認為您什麼時候能夠釋放這筆現金，我認為當時可能會用於減少債務？

Yes. Thanks, Patrick. Somebody asked it earlier on the call, they were probably referring to it in a little bit of a different way. But we would expect the vast majority of that to be released back to us effectively by the end of 2024 with the rest by the end of 2025. So that's the trajectory that we expect.

是的。謝謝，帕特里克。早些時候有人在電話中問過這個問題，他們可能是以稍微不同的方式提到它的。但我們預計其中絕大多數將在 2024 年底前有效地返還給我們，其餘的將在 2025 年底前返還給我們。這就是我們預期的軌跡。

And to your point, yes, that's increased liquidity and cash, and we'd be using that to continue our process of deleveraging.

就你的觀點而言，是的，這增加了流動性和現金，我們將利用它來繼續我們的去槓桿化進程。

Okay. And what is that balance today, specifically the $1.7 billion, which was at the end of 1Q, where are you now?

好的。今天的餘額是多少，特別是第一季度末的 17 億美元，你現在在哪裡？

At the end of Q2, you'll see when the queue is filed, it's $2.2 billion. It has since customer deposits went up, the reserve funds went up correspondingly.

在第二季度末，您會看到隊列歸檔後的金額為 22 億美元。由於客戶存款增加，準備金也相應增加。

Our next question comes from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Dan Politzer。

For the 3-year plan, I wanted to hit on the 12% ROIC target. Can you talk about -- are there strategic things that maybe are not obvious as we think about your current business that bridge you to get there? Are there changes -- and what I mean by this, are there changes in mix in terms of brands or further reallocating capacity to higher ROIC brands? And along with that, in terms of your cost of capital, it's obviously now higher. How do you think about the threshold for investments now? And maybe what are the things that you're focusing on that are going to help bridge us to the improved 2024 costs that you've been referencing?

對於 3 年計劃，我希望實現 12% 的 ROIC 目標。您能否談談——當我們考慮您目前的業務時，是否有一些戰略性的事情可能並不明顯，可以幫助您實現這一目標？是否有變化——我的意思是，品牌組合是否有變化，或者進一步將產能重新分配給更高投資回報率的品牌？與此同時，就資本成本而言，現在顯然更高了。您如何看待現在投資的門檻？也許您關注的哪些事情將有助於我們了解您一直提到的 2024 年成本改善情況？

Okay. Well, so from a strategic perspective and a portfolio of brands, it assumes -- and we're marching forward with the same brands that are in our current portfolio. We have taken action to reallocate our assets within our portfolio on the makeup such that -- I don't have it in front of me, but a Carnival Cruise Line over this period will be about 1/3 of our capacity. And in the timeline that I was talking about, if you look back in our pre-pause last 4-year period, they were closer to what was it, 26%, 27%, Beth?

好的。嗯，所以從戰略角度和品牌組合來看，它假設——我們正在與我們當前組合中的相同品牌一起前進。我們已採取行動，在我們的投資組合中重新分配我們的資產，這樣——我面前沒有它，但在此期間嘉年華遊輪公司將占我們運力的約 1/3。在我所說的時間線中，如果你回顧我們暫停前的最後四年，他們更接近當時的情況，26%、27%，貝絲？

Yes, about -- yes, about 26% -- 27%. Pardon me?

是的，大約——是的，大約 26%——27%。對不起？

25%.

25%。

25%. So you're looking at our highest return brand being 1/3 of our business, up from 1/4, which is certainly part of our strategy.

25%。因此，我們回報率最高的品牌占我們業務的比例從 1/4 上升到 1/3，這當然是我們戰略的一部分。

At the same time, our focus is generating incremental and accelerated demand for all of our brands. And I think you see that in the booking numbers that we've been talking about, the pace at which we've really been coming back every single quarter, and we expect performance to continue.

與此同時，我們的重點是為我們所有品牌創造增量和加速的需求。我認為您可以從我們一直在談論的預訂數量中看到我們每個季度的實際恢復速度，並且我們預計業績將持續下去。

So from a strategic perspective, it's letting the brands focus on their commercial operations, ensure they got the capability and the capacity to do everything that we expect and build their ships with folks who are very willing to pay for the amazing experiences that they give. And I think that's starting to really shine through. We do have some wind in our backs as well with respect to our land-based portfolio because Grand port is not currently in our portfolio, even though we've got an amazing footprint in an unparalleled footprint in the Caribbean, that alone will take our annual number of guests that we carry from about 5.5 million this year to 7.5 million, and we expect that will be a very nice pickup in our business.

因此，從戰略角度來看，它讓品牌專注於他們的商業運營，確保他們有能力完成我們期望的一切，並與非常願意為他們提供的令人驚嘆的體驗付費的人們一起建造他們的船隻。我認為這已經開始真正顯現出來。就我們的陸上投資組合而言，我們確實也有一些支持，因為大港目前不在我們的投資組合中，儘管我們在加勒比地區擁有無與倫比的足跡，但僅此一項就將帶走我們的投資組合。我們每年接待的客人數量從今年的約 550 萬人增至 750 萬人，我們預計這將是我們業務的一個非常好的增長。

Got it. And then just turning to the pricing gap. You and your peers have talked about relative to land-based vacations. To the extent that there is some uncertainty, certainly on the consumer side still, and these prices have elevated considerably on the land-based side. How do you think about your cushion here? And to the extent that we were to see a slowdown in lodging in RevPAR, how do you think about that as impacting your pricing stability or resilience?

知道了。然後轉向價格差距。您和您的同事已經討論過與陸上度假相關的問題。在一定程度上存在一些不確定性，當然在消費者方面仍然存在，並且這些價格在陸上方面已經大幅上漲。您覺得這裡的坐墊怎麼樣？如果我們看到住宿的 RevPAR 放緩，您認為這會如何影響您的定價穩定性或彈性？

Sure. Well, obviously, based on what we've been telling you today, we don't see a slowdown, which is very good, especially because one of the benefits we have is we are very well booked for the next 12 months, and those bookings are sticky. So that is incredibly helpful to our outlook.

當然。嗯，顯然，根據我們今天告訴您的情況，我們沒有看到經濟放緩，這非常好，特別是因為我們的好處之一是我們未來 12 個月的預訂量非常多，而且這些預訂是粘性的。所以這對我們的前景非常有幫助。

Now what I call -- I actually call it outrageous and ridiculous value gap to land, and that is a double-edged sword in our favor because if there is a slowdown and if hotels take their rates down a bit and airlines take their rates down a bit and resource, whatever that might be, we are still outsized in our value. And as a result, if there is a recession, we stick out. We stick out for the right reasons because of how far your holiday dollar can go. And on top of that, because of our home porting strategy with about 75% of our ships positioned where our guests don't have to get on a flagship they chose not to. That sets us up very, very well for people who are trying to figure out how to stretch their vacation dollar.

現在我所說的——我實際上稱之為令人震驚和荒謬的土地價值差距，這是一把對我們有利的雙刃劍，因為如果經濟放緩，如果酒店稍微降低房價，航空公司也降低房價一點點和資源，無論是什麼，我們的價值仍然巨大。因此，如果出現經濟衰退，我們會堅持下去。我們之所以堅持這樣做，是因為有正確的理由，因為您的假期錢可以花多長時間。最重要的是，由於我們的母港港口策略，我們大約 75% 的船舶位於我們的客人不必登上他們選擇不登上的旗艦的地方。這為那些試圖弄清楚如何節省假期費用的人們提供了非常非常好的幫助。

So to be honest with you, our focus on base loading for 2024 and pulling ahead with all of those factors at our back, we feel quite good. And we probably said this in other calls. Every recession is different. This one happens to be one where there's record unemployment, people still wanting to purchase experiences, particularly travel, which bodes quite well for us.

因此，老實說，我們專注於 2024 年的基本裝載，並在所有這些因素的支持下繼續前進，我們感覺非常好。我們可能在其他電話中說過這一點。每次經濟衰退都是不同的。這恰好是失業率創紀錄的一個，人們仍然想購買體驗，尤其是旅行，這對我們來說是個好兆頭。

We've got time for one more question.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Operator, we've got time for one more question or I could just end the call. So I think we've lost our operator. So I will do that.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題，否則我可以結束通話。所以我認為我們已經失去了我們的操作員。所以我會這麼做。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. And for those that we'll see tomorrow, I look forward to seeing you for the Investor Day. Thank you very much.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。對於那些我們明天會見到的人，我期待在投資者日見到你們。非常感謝。

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Thank you.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。謝謝。