嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. This is Josh Weinstein. Welcome to our first quarter 2023 business update conference call. I'm joined today by our Chair, Micky Arison; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Beth Roberts.

早上好。這是喬什·溫斯坦。歡迎來到我們的 2023 年第一季度業務更新電話會議。今天我們的主席 Micky Arison 加入了我的行列；我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein；以及我們的投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

在我開始之前，請注意我們對本次電話會議的一些評論是前瞻性的。因此，我必須向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。

Consistent with our last business update, we remain on an upward trajectory as we further closed the gap to 2019. We are still experiencing a record wave season, which started early, gained strength and has extended later into the year. We expect these favorable trends to continue based on the traction we're making to our ongoing effort to drive demand globally.

與我們上次的業務更新一致，隨著我們進一步縮小與 2019 年的差距，我們仍處於上升軌道。我們仍在經歷一個創紀錄的浪潮季節，這個季節開始得早，實力增強，並延續到今年晚些時候。我們預計這些有利趨勢將繼續下去，因為我們正在努力推動全球需求。

In the first quarter, we outperformed our guidance on all measures: Revenue, costs, adjusted EBITDA and earnings, while overcoming over $30 million in headwinds from fuel price and currency since our prior guidance, thanks to the dedicated efforts of our 160,000 amazing team members around the world. We had sequential improvement in our occupancy gap to 2019 from 19 points in Q4 to 13 points in Q1 on increasing capacity, which is now above 2019 levels. We anticipate being just 7 points or less away from 2019 occupancies in the second quarter, well on our way to historical occupancies this summer.

在第一季度，由於我們 160,000 名優秀團隊成員的不懈努力，我們在所有指標上的表現都優於我們的指導：收入、成本、調整後的 EBITDA 和收益，同時克服了自我們之前的指導以來燃料價格和貨幣帶來的超過 3000 萬美元的不利因素世界各地。由於容量增加，我們與 2019 年的入住率差距從第四季度的 19 點連續改善到第一季度的 13 點，現在高於 2019 年的水平。我們預計第二季度與 2019 年的入住率僅相差 7 個百分點或更少，今年夏天我們正朝著歷史入住率邁進。

Equally important, we also drove ticket prices higher and continue to throttle back on our opaque channel while also maintaining outsized onboard revenue growth but we have not lost sight on the cost side of the business. We are working hard to mitigate 4 years of inflation while still reinvesting in advertising and sales support to build future demand. We did update our cost guidance primarily to reflect decisions taken during the quarter that have increased our costs but will produce greater EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, which David will elaborate on. We remain nimble and continue to aggressively seek opportunities to accelerate our path back to strong profitability.

同樣重要的是，我們還推高了票價並繼續限制我們不透明的渠道，同時保持機上收入的大幅增長，但我們並沒有忽視業務的成本方面。我們正在努力緩解 4 年的通貨膨脹，同時仍在對廣告和銷售支持進行再投資以建立未來需求。我們確實更新了我們的成本指南，主要是為了反映本季度做出的決定，這些決定增加了我們的成本，但會產生更大的 EBITDA 和調整後的自由現金流，David 將對此進行詳細說明。我們保持靈活，並繼續積極尋找機會，以加速我們恢復強勁盈利能力的道路。

For the year, we're expecting adjusted EBITDA of $4 billion at the midpoint. The gap to 2019's record $5.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA is being driven primarily by two items. First is our 2023 occupancy gap to 2019, which we expect to be behind us as we cycle through this year. As we discussed on the last call, this results primarily from longer-duration exotic voyages early in the year that we did not feel given the disparate COVID protocols to land-based alternatives were in place during most of the booking window for these voyages, as well as close-in deployment changes and the slightly delayed but improving European recovery trajectory.

今年，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 中點為 40 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 與 2019 年創紀錄的 55 億美元的差距主要由兩個項目驅動。首先是我們 2023 年與 2019 年的入住率差距，我們預計在今年循環時將落後於我們。正如我們在上次電話會議上討論的那樣，這主要是由於今年年初進行了持續時間更長的異國航行，我們認為在這些航行的大部分預訂窗口期間，針對陸上替代方案的不同 COVID 協議都已到位，因為以及近距離部署變化以及略有延遲但正在改善的歐洲復甦軌跡。

Second is a drag due to fuel prices and currency changes compared to 2019. In actuality, the strength of our demand generation resulting in elevated per diems and our fleet optimization efforts has helped us to mitigate 4 years of significant cost inflation which, of course, will continue to work to offset even further.

其次是由於與 2019 年相比燃料價格和貨幣變化造成的拖累。實際上，我們的需求生成強度導致每日津貼增加，我們的機隊優化工作幫助我們緩解了 4 年的顯著成本通脹，當然，將繼續努力進一步抵消。

On a per ALBD basis and holding fuel price and currency constant to 2019 levels, we were roughly 60% back to 2019 EBITDA in our first quarter, better than our expectations to be halfway back. We expect to be 2/3 of the way back in our second quarter as we progress back to levels that rival 2019 as we exit the year. Each point of net yield improvement results in $170 million to the bottom line in 2024. With our continuing demand generation seeing us close the occupancy gap entirely and allowing us to pull back further opaque channel activity, we are well positioned to continue to drive ticket prices higher and more than offset the drag from fuel price and currency over time.

在每個 ALBD 的基礎上，將燃料價格和貨幣保持在 2019 年的水平不變，我們第一季度的 2019 年 EBITDA 回落了大約 60%，好於我們回落一半的預期。隨著我們在今年結束時回到與 2019 年相媲美的水平，我們預計將在第二季度回歸 2/3。 2024 年淨收益率每提高一點，就會帶來 1.7 億美元的利潤。隨著我們不斷產生的需求，我們完全縮小了入住率差距，並允許我們進一步撤回不透明的渠道活動，我們有能力繼續推動票價隨著時間的推移，更高且超過抵消了燃料價格和貨幣的拖累。

To that end, wave season has been phenomenal. It started early with record Black Friday booking volumes and has continued to build. We achieved our highest ever quarterly booking volumes in our company's history, and we actually had our best weekly booking volume for this wave the last week in February. And the good news is that strength in bookings has continued into March, supporting our revenue expectations for the remainder of the year. Of course, we're working very hard to do even better.

為此，波浪季節非常出色。它以創紀錄的黑色星期五預訂量開始，並繼續增加。我們實現了公司歷史上有史以來最高的季度預訂量，實際上我們在 2 月的最後一周實現了這一波浪潮中最好的每週預訂量。好消息是預訂的強勁勢頭一直持續到 3 月份，支持了我們對今年剩餘時間的收入預期。當然，我們正在努力做得更好。

In North America, our Carnival brand continues to propel us forward, breaking new booking records every single week in January and February. Booking volumes for our North American brands have been running in excess of record 2019 levels for the last 6 months and booking lead times are now back to peak levels.

在北美，我們的嘉年華品牌繼續推動我們前進，在 1 月和 2 月的每個星期都打破了新的預訂記錄。過去 6 個月，我們北美品牌的預訂量一直超過 2019 年的創紀錄水平，預訂提前期現已回到峰值水平。

Demand for our European brands has strengthened more recently and is catching up to the U.S. market in the recovery cycle. Demand trends are improving across all regions as we exit the winter period and home heating concerns fade. In fact, booking volumes reached a record for our European brands as well, evidencing strong close-in demand and producing a continued lengthening in the booking curve.

最近對我們歐洲品牌的需求有所增強，並在復蘇週期中趕上了美國市場。隨著冬季的結束和家庭取暖問題的消退，所有地區的需求趨勢都在改善。事實上，我們歐洲品牌的預訂量也創下了歷史新高，證明了強勁的近距離需求並導致預訂曲線持續拉長。

As we previously noted, Australia is about a year behind the U.S. in terms of the recovery cycle. And while Asia is still about 2 years behind, we successfully resumed operations there with the ships now in Japan and one in Taiwan beginning this summer.

正如我們之前指出的那樣，就復甦週期而言，澳大利亞比美國落後大約一年。雖然亞洲仍然落後大約 2 年，但我們從今年夏天開始成功地恢復了那裡的運營，目前在日本的船隻和台灣的一艘船隻。

Turning to China. The country still has not reopened to international cruise travel, which accounted for 1 million of our guests pre-pause and was a significant presence for Costa. To address this, we leaned into the mobility of our assets by leveraging our scale as we capitalize on the strength of our brand portfolio while building alternate deployments for the remaining Costa fleet. The actions we've taken to rightsize the Costa brands are working. Following the transfer of Venezia to our highly successful Carnival Cruise Line brand, the launch of Fun Italian Style has received strong support and is already reaching nearly 100% occupancy level for the third quarter. And with strengthening demand, Costa will be able to enter its remaining idle capacity at a faster pace.

轉向中國。該國仍未重新開放國際郵輪旅行，暫停前有 100 萬客人，這對 Costa 來說意義重大。為了解決這個問題，我們利用我們的規模來提高資產的流動性，因為我們利用我們品牌組合的優勢，同時為剩餘的 Costa 船隊建立替代部署。我們為調整 Costa 品牌規模而採取的行動正在奏效。繼 Venezia 轉移到我們非常成功的 Carnival Cruise Line 品牌之後，Fun Italian Style 的推出得到了大力支持，並且在第三季度已經達到近 100% 的入住率。隨著需求的增強，Costa 將能夠以更快的速度進入其剩餘的閒置產能。

Overall, with normalized onboard protocols, we are on an even playing field to land-based alternatives, enabling us to close the unprecedented and unwarranted 25% to 50% value gap to land-based offerings over time. We are well positioned to capture incremental demand given our high satisfaction and low penetration levels. We're capitalizing on pent-up demand for cruise vacations, building on our large base of loyal guests as we work to increase awareness and consideration among new to cruise guests. This has been helped by the ongoing efforts of our travel agent partners who remain a critical source for new to-cruise guests.

總的來說，通過標準化的機載協議，我們與陸上替代品處於一個公平的競爭環境中，使我們能夠隨著時間的推移縮小與陸上產品之間前所未有且毫無根據的 25% 至 50% 的價值差距。鑑於我們的高滿意度和低滲透率，我們有能力捕捉增量需求。我們正在利用郵輪假期被壓抑的需求，建立在我們龐大的忠實客人基礎上，同時我們努力提高郵輪新客人的意識和考慮。這得益於我們的旅行社合作夥伴的不懈努力，他們仍然是新登船客人的重要來源。

I am delighted to say that the trade is showing a fantastic rebound in its recovery with us this past quarter with several of our brands trade activity exceeding 2019 levels as we support our trade partners with increased training and engagement. And our investment in advertising and sales support is clearly paying dividends. For example, we've been upsizing our U.K. TV presence for P&O Cruises, the brand synonymous with cruising in the U.K. Not only has P&O Cruise has been enjoying a measurable increase in brand awareness as a result, but the brand has also experienced record bookings over the last 3 months. This is not surprising given the high correlation between TV advertising awareness and propensity to book in the U.K.

我很高興地說，由於我們通過增加培訓和參與來支持我們的貿易夥伴，上個季度貿易在我們的複蘇中出現了驚人的反彈，我們的幾個品牌貿易活動超過了 2019 年的水平。我們在廣告和銷售支持方面的投資顯然正在收到回報。例如，我們一直在擴大 P&O Cruises 在英國的電視節目，P&O Cruises 是英國巡遊的代名詞。因此，P&O Cruise 不僅品牌知名度有了顯著提高，而且該品牌的預訂量也創下了新紀錄在過去的 3 個月裡。鑑於電視廣告意識與在英國的預訂傾向之間的高度相關性，這並不奇怪。

The awareness of P&O Cruises has been amplified with the unprecedented and well publicized naming of Arvia in Barbados less than 2 weeks ago. The amazing event featured our fabulous godmother, Nicole Sherzinger, chart-topping U.K. singer, Olly Murs and the incomparable Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley. Arvia is taking the brand with new guest experiences like the industry's first 3D submarine escape room, and it's got over 30 dining and bar outlets. We have a measured 4.5% capacity growth compared to 2019 while still retaining the excitement from 14 newly delivered ships, representing nearly 25% of our capacity.

不到 2 週前，P&O Cruises 的知名度因 Arvia 在巴巴多斯史無前例且廣為人知的命名而得到放大。令人驚嘆的活動包括我們出色的教母 Nicole Sherzinger、排行榜第一的英國歌手 Olly Murs 和無與倫比的巴巴多斯總理 Mia Mottley。 Arvia 正在為該品牌提供全新的賓客體驗，例如業內首個 3D 潛艇逃生室，並且擁有 30 多家餐廳和酒吧。與 2019 年相比，我們的運力增長了 4.5%，同時仍然保持著 14 艘新交付船舶的興奮，占我們運力的近 25%。

And importantly, our growth is weighted towards three of our highest returning brands: Carnival Cruise Line, AIDA and P&O Cruises U.K. following our portfolio and fleet optimization. As mentioned on previous calls, to help support this growth and drive overall revenue generation over time, I've actively been working with each brand on their strategies and road maps to ensure they have clearly identified target markets, capacity that is appropriately sized to the market potential, demand generation capability to hone in on the target market at the lowest possible acquisition cost, and deliver an amazing guest experience on board to drive Net Promoter Scores and resulting advocacy higher.

重要的是，在我們的產品組合和船隊優化之後，我們的增長主要集中在我們回報率最高的三個品牌上：嘉年華郵輪公司、AIDA 和 P&O Cruises UK。正如在之前的電話會議中提到的，為了幫助支持這種增長並隨著時間的推移推動整體收入的產生，我一直在積極與每個品牌合作制定他們的戰略和路線圖，以確保他們已經清楚地確定了目標市場，容量大小適合市場潛力，需求生成能力，以盡可能低的獲取成本打磨目標市場，並提供令人驚嘆的船上賓客體驗，以提高淨推薦值和由此產生的宣傳。

These efforts are well underway. We have or are in the process of refreshing segmentation research across all major source markets to confirm and resize our target audiences by brand post [pause]. Our brands have identified clear differentiators, and we are leveraging these insights to fine-tune each brand's positioning and marketing efforts to attract new-to-cruise guests and increase loyalty. For example, we've developed new affinity partnerships like Porsche Club of America for Princess, which is an efficient way to drive new-to-cruise demand to a brand that will resonate with its target guests.

這些努力正在進行中。我們已經或正在更新所有主要來源市場的細分研究，以通過品牌發布 [暫停] 確認和調整我們的目標受眾。我們的品牌已經確定了明顯的差異化因素，我們正在利用這些洞察力來微調每個品牌的定位和營銷工作，以吸引新的郵輪客人並提高忠誠度。例如，我們開發了新的親和合作夥伴關係，例如公主美國保時捷俱樂部，這是一種有效的方式來推動新的郵輪需求，從而與目標客人產生共鳴。

We have launched new marketing campaigns across multiple media channels, including new national and home port-driven regional television in most major markets to increase awareness. And we've leaned into digital media with emphasis on video for enhanced storytelling. In fact, AIDA's new wave campaign, Better Together, has had 86 million views on TikTok and counting. We are redesigning websites to increase online traffic, improve conversion and achieve higher pre-cruise onboard sales. We are refining our onboard apps to increase communication and engagement as well as capturing incremental onboard revenue. We are refining our digital performance marketing efforts, continuously fine-tuning search engine optimization and testing new lead generation approaches with impressive results.

我們已經在多個媒體渠道開展了新的營銷活動，包括在大多數主要市場推出新的國家和母港驅動的區域電視，以提高知名度。我們已經轉向數字媒體，強調視頻以增強故事講述。事實上，AIDA 的新浪潮活動“Better Together”在 TikTok 上的瀏覽量已達到 8600 萬，而且還在不斷增加。我們正在重新設計網站以增加在線流量、提高轉化率並實現更高的遊輪前船上銷售。我們正在改進我們的機載應用程序，以增加溝通和參與，並獲得增量機載收入。我們正在完善我們的數字績效營銷工作，不斷微調搜索引擎優化並測試新的潛在客戶生成方法，並取得了令人矚目的成果。

As just 2 examples, Holland America was recently named to the top 100 fastest-growing digital brands and Costa has driven an over 40% increase in lead generation in just the last 6 months. Our web visits are up 35% over 2019, which is multiples of our measured capacity growth. And our guests that are new to brand already reached 90% of 2019 levels in the first quarter. These are testaments to the success of our investments in advertising and sales support. And in fact, we're bolstering our sales and service support to address the increased volume and reduce call times resulting from all of the above.

僅舉兩個例子，Holland America 最近被評為增長最快的 100 大數字品牌，而 Costa 在過去 6 個月內推動了潛在客戶產生超過 40% 的增長。我們的網絡訪問量比 2019 年增長了 35%，這是我們測得的容量增長的數倍。而我們品牌的新客人在第一季度已經達到了 2019 年水平的 90%。這些證明了我們在廣告和銷售支持方面的投資取得了成功。事實上，我們正在加強我們的銷售和服務支持，以解決上述所有問題導致的數量增加和呼叫時間減少的問題。

We are sharpening our revenue management tools to drive incremental revenues through increased bundled package offers and new upgrade programs. We're also opening deployments further in advance, and testing and learning pricing strategies to support earlier occupancy builds and to push the booking curve out further. We are actively reducing already low cancellation levels through changes to deposit policies and new fare structures. And we are using guest insights and sharing cross-brand learnings to aid in everything we do.

我們正在改進我們的收入管理工具，以通過增加捆綁包優惠和新的升級計劃來推動增量收入。我們還提前進一步開放部署，並測試和學習定價策略以支持更早的入住率建設並進一步推動預訂曲線。我們正在通過更改押金政策和新的票價結構來積極降低已經很低的取消率。我們正在利用客人的見解和分享跨品牌學習來幫助我們所做的一切。

We all have a sense of urgency to further our brand's efforts to drive net yield improvement. And while it's working, we recognize these efforts build over time. To aid in these efforts, we also have an opportunity to further leverage and monetize our industry-leading land-based assets in the Caribbean and Alaska.

我們都有一種緊迫感，要進一步推動我們的品牌努力提高淨收益。在它發揮作用的同時，我們認識到這些努力是隨著時間的推移而建立起來的。為了幫助這些努力，我們還有機會進一步利用我們在加勒比海和阿拉斯加行業領先的陸基資產並從中獲利。

In the Caribbean, we are building on our strategic advantage with a meaningful expansion of Half Moon Cay, which is consistently voted best private island. And of course, we're also developing our largest Caribbean destination yet, our Grand Bahama port. It's being designed to deliver wow fact tailored to Carnival Cruise Line guests to drive higher revenue yields and margins. Importantly, this development is strategically located to deliver a wide array of lower fuel consumption itineraries, furthering our carbon reduction efforts.

在加勒比海地區，我們正在通過對半月礁進行有意義的擴張來鞏固我們的戰略優勢，該島一直被評為最佳私人島嶼。當然，我們還在開發我們最大的加勒比目的地，我們的大巴哈馬港。它旨在為嘉年華郵輪公司的客人提供量身定制的驚喜，以推動更高的收益和利潤率。重要的是，這一開發項目的戰略位置可提供各種低油耗航線，進一步推進我們的碳減排工作。

And in Alaska, we have an unmatched strategic footprint across hotels, rail and motor coaches to deliver unique land-sea packages of a lifetime as well as the most itineraries by far, featuring the iconic Leisure Bay.

在阿拉斯加，我們在酒店、鐵路和大客車方面擁有無與倫比的戰略足跡，可提供終生難忘的獨特陸海套餐以及迄今為止最多的行程，包括標誌性的休閒灣。

Turning to our capital structure. We've completed two more export credits this quarter, bringing the total remaining available to $3.2 billion. The export credits are not only an attractive way to fund new ships, but they also serve to effectively roll debt that's maturing at attractive rates. In fact, the majority of export credits coming due in the next few years will be replaced by new export credits available to be drawn. As a result, we expect export credits to remain a similar portion of our debt structure at preferential low to mid-single-digit interest rates.

轉向我們的資本結構。本季度我們又完成了兩項出口信貸，使剩餘可用總額達到 32 億美元。出口信貸不僅是為新船提供資金的一種有吸引力的方式，而且還有助於有效地滾動以有吸引力的利率到期的債務。事實上，未來幾年到期的大部分出口信貸將被可供提取的新出口信貸所取代。因此，我們預計出口信貸將以優惠的低至中個位數利率保持在我們債務結構中的類似部分。

We also proactively addressed the renewal of our revolving credit agreement. The creative forward start revolver allows us to retain the benefit of $2.9 billion of liquidity until August of 2024 and provides an 18-month window to build on the current commitment of $2.1 billion. Hats off to David and our treasury team.

我們還積極解決了循環信貸協議的續簽問題。創造性的遠期啟動左輪手槍使我們能夠在 2024 年 8 月之前保留 29 億美元的流動性，並提供 18 個月的窗口來建立當前 21 億美元的承諾。向大衛和我們的財務團隊致敬。

We remain disciplined in making capital allocation decisions, including new builds. We have our lowest order book in decades, which is 4 ships on order through 2025, and there will be none in 2026, plus our second incredible luxury expedition ship for Seabourn to be delivered later this year. Following a strong and prolonged wave season, customer deposits are running up double digits, contributing to adjusted free cash flow turning positive this quarter and for the full year. We are set up for structurally higher growth in customer deposits going forward as we benefit from increasing demand and increases in our bundled package offerings and pre-cruise sales.

我們在製定資本分配決策（包括新建項目）時仍然遵守紀律。我們的訂單是幾十年來最低的，到 2025 年有 4 艘船的訂單，2026 年將沒有，加上我們為 Seabourn 交付的第二艘令人難以置信的豪華遠征船將於今年晚些時候交付。在經歷了一個強勁而持久的波動季節之後，客戶存款增長了兩位數，導致本季度和全年調整後的自由現金流轉為正數。由於我們受益於不斷增長的需求以及捆綁包產品和郵輪前銷售的增長，因此我們準備在結構上實現更高的客戶存款增長。

While we'll always look at opportunistic refinancing opportunities with adjusted free cash for the year expected to be positive, our revolver renewal behind us, more committed export credit financings in hand, our reduced CapEx profile going forward and over $8 billion of liquidity, we believe we are well positioned to pay down near-term debt maturities from excess liquidity and have no intention to issue equity. And with our industry-leading cost structure, we are well positioned to bring incremental revenue to the bottom line. We are focused on durable revenue growth, margin improvement and driving EBITDA per available birthday hire to propel us on the path to delevering investment-grade credit ratings and increased ROIC. Over time, we expect the enterprise value for our company to shift from debt holders back toward equity holders.

雖然我們將始終關註今年調整後的自由現金預計為正的機會主義再融資機會，我們的左輪手槍續約在我們身後，手頭有更多承諾的出口信貸融資，我們未來資本支出的減少以及超過 80 億美元的流動性，我們相信我們有能力償還因流動性過剩而導致的短期債務到期，並且無意發行股票。憑藉我們行業領先的成本結構，我們能夠很好地為利潤帶來增量收入。我們專注於持久的收入增長、利潤率提高和推動每個可用生日僱員的 EBITDA，以推動我們走上去槓桿化投資級信用評級和增加 ROIC 的道路。隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們公司的企業價值將從債務持有人轉向股權持有人。

I can't end the call without once again praising our travel agent partners for their unwavering support and our team members, ship and shore, who work so hard every day to fulfill our mission of creating unforgettable happiness by providing extraordinary cruise vacations to our guests while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sail, place we visit and life we touch. Our company is powered by our best-in-class people, something for which I am incredibly thankful.

我不能結束電話，再次感謝我們的旅行社合作夥伴的堅定支持，以及我們的團隊成員、船上和岸上，他們每天辛勤工作，通過為我們的客人提供非凡的郵輪假期來完成我們創造難忘幸福的使命同時尊重我們航行的每片海洋、我們訪問的地方和我們接觸的生活的完整性。我們公司由一流的人才提供支持，對此我深表感謝。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to David.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Josh. Before I begin, please note all of my reference to ticket prices, net per diems and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated.

謝謝你，喬希。在我開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，否則我提及的所有票價、每日淨津貼和調整後的不含燃料的郵輪費用均採用固定貨幣。

I'll start today with a summary of our 2023 first quarter results. Then I'll provide a recap of our cumulative book position. Next, I will give some additional color on our 2023 full year March guidance and finish up describing our financial position.

我將從今天開始總結我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。然後我將回顧一下我們累計的賬面頭寸。接下來，我將對我們的 2023 年全年 3 月指南進行一些補充，並完成對我們財務狀況的描述。

As Josh indicated, in the first quarter, we outperformed our guidance on all measures. For the first quarter, our adjusted EBITDA was $382 million, which was $82 million, above the midpoint of our December guidance. The improvement was driven by two things: First, $82 million of favorability in both improved ticket prices as net per diems were up 7.5% and higher occupancy of over 91%; and second, $28 million of favorability in adjusted cruise costs without fuel due to the timing of expenses between quarters, both of which were partially offset by a $31 million unfavorable net impact from higher steel prices and currency.

正如 Josh 所指出的，在第一季度，我們在所有指標上的表現都優於我們的指導。第一季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.82 億美元，即 8200 萬美元，高於我們 12 月指導的中點。改善是由兩件事推動的：首先，8200 萬美元的優惠票價提高了 8200 萬美元，因為每日淨津貼上漲了 7.5%，入住率提高了 91% 以上；其次，由於季度之間的支出時間安排，調整後的不含燃料的遊輪成本有 2800 萬美元的優惠，這兩者都被鋼鐵價格和貨幣上漲帶來的 3100 萬美元的不利淨影響部分抵消。

I have three additional comments before leaving the first quarter results. First, our onboard and other revenue for the first quarter continued at an elevated pace that is consistent with the back half of 2022, demonstrating continued strength in the consumer as well as the quality of our onboard offering. However, I want to remind you that during the December conference call, I indicated that for 2023, as we have done in the past, we changed the bundled package offering to capture incremental revenue streams, and we reevaluated the revenue accounting allocations. As a result, in 2023, more of the revenue will be less in ticket and less allocated to onboard, impacting the onboard and other revenue per diem comparisons to both 2022 and 2019. Just another reason to add to the list of reasons why the best way to judge our revenue performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics such as net per diems.

在離開第一季度結果之前，我還有三點額外的評論。首先，我們第一季度的船上和其他收入繼續以與 2022 年下半年一致的高速度增長，這表明消費者的持續增長以及我們船上產品的質量。但是，我想提醒您，在 12 月的電話會議上，我表示對於 2023 年，就像我們過去所做的那樣，我們改變了捆綁包產品以獲取增量收入流，並且我們重新評估了收入核算分配。因此，到 2023 年，更多的收入將減少，分配給機上收入的收入將減少，從而影響與 2022 年和 2019 年相比的機上收入和其他每日津貼收入。這是最好的原因列表中添加的另一個原因判斷我們的收入表現的方法是參考我們的郵輪總收入指標，例如每日淨收入。

Second, occupancy for the first quarter was over 91% but still a gap to 2019. We expect to continue to close the gap as we progress through 2023, setting us up for improved year-over-year adjusted EBITDA starting in first quarter 2024, driven by higher revenue because of the occupancy improvement.

其次，第一季度的入住率超過 91%，但與 2019 年仍有差距。我們預計到 2023 年將繼續縮小差距，為我們從 2024 年第一季度開始的調整後 EBITDA 同比改善做好準備，由於入住率的提高，收入增加。

And third, net per diems for the first quarter 2023 benefited from brand mix and cabin mix as compared to the remaining 3 quarters of 2023, which was particularly aided this quarter by the exotic voyages that held down our occupancies, which we discussed on our last conference call.

第三，與 2023 年剩餘的三個季度相比，2023 年第一季度的淨每日津貼受益於品牌組合和機艙組合，本季度尤其受到抑制我們入住率的異國航行的幫助，我們在上次討論電話會議。

Turning to our cumulative book position. For the remainder of 2023, our cumulative advanced book position is at higher ticket prices normalized for future cruise credits when compared to strong 2019 pricing with booked occupancy that is solidly in the higher end of the historical range. The strong cumulative book position along with bundled package offerings and strong pre-cruise sales has resulted in total customer deposits achieving a first quarter record of $5.7 billion, surpassing the previous first quarter record of $4.9 billion, a 16% increase.

轉向我們的累計賬面頭寸。在 2023 年的剩餘時間裡，與 2019 年強勁的定價相比，我們的累計預售預訂頭寸為未來郵輪積分標準化後的更高票價，預訂入住率穩固地處於歷史範圍的高端。強勁的累積賬面狀況以及捆綁式套餐產品和強勁的郵輪前銷售使得客戶存款總額在第一季度達到創紀錄的 57 億美元，超過之前第一季度的 49 億美元記錄，增長 16%。

Next, I will give some additional color on our 2023 full year March guidance. We now expect capacity growth for the full year 2023 to be 4.5% when compared to 2019. With strengthening demand, Costa will be able to reenter its remaining idle capacity at a faster pace than originally thought, increasing our capacity growth from December guidance. Full year 2023 occupancy is expected to be 100% or higher as we close the gap each quarter on occupancy levels as compared to 2019.

接下來，我將為我們的 2023 年全年 3 月指南提供一些額外的顏色。與 2019 年相比，我們現在預計 2023 年全年的運力增長將達到 4.5%。隨著需求的增強，Costa 將能夠以比原先想像的更快的速度重新進入其剩餘閒置運力，從而提高我們 12 月指導的運力增長。與 2019 年相比，我們每個季度都在縮小入住率水平上的差距，預計 2023 年全年入住率將達到 100% 或更高。

On the pricing front, we expect net per diems to be up 3% to 4% for full year 2023 compared to a strong 2019 with net yields improving every quarter throughout 2023 as compared to 2019 and exceeding 2019 in the fourth quarter. As I previously mentioned, net per diems for first quarter 2023 benefited from brand mix and cabin mix as compared to the remaining 3 quarters of 2023. Our net per diems for the second quarter and implied guidance for the second half of 2023 reflect the changing brand mix and cabin mix throughout the year.

在定價方面，我們預計與強勁的 2019 年相比，2023 年全年的淨每日津貼將增長 3% 至 4%，與 2019 年相比，整個 2023 年每個季度的淨收益率都將有所提高，並在第四季度超過 2019 年。正如我之前提到的，與 2023 年剩餘的三個季度相比，2023 年第一季度的淨每日津貼受益於品牌組合和機艙組合。我們第二季度的淨每日津貼和 2023 年下半年的隱含指導反映了不斷變化的品牌全年混合和客艙混合。

During 2023, our European brands expect their onboard and other revenue per diems to be up significantly versus 2019 as they were in 2022 and has been the case with our North American brands. As I previously pointed out, the absolute onboard spending on our European brands is less than that on our North American brands. Our European brand guests tend to drink a little bit more but gamble a lot less.

在 2023 年期間，我們的歐洲品牌預計他們的船上和其他每日津貼收入將比 2019 年和 2022 年有顯著增長，我們的北美品牌也是如此。正如我之前指出的，我們歐洲品牌的絕對船上消費低於我們北美品牌。我們的歐洲品牌客人傾向於多喝一點，但賭博少得多。

As the European brands catch up on occupancy with our North American brands during the second and third quarters and filled their ships, driving adjusted EBITDA higher, they will make up a larger percentage of the total, changing the per passenger average. And with their historically lower onboard revenue per diems, we will no longer benefit from brand mix. In addition, as we continue to close the gap to 2019 occupancy, many of the remaining cabins left to be filled or inside cabins. As we fill our increasingly shrinking remaining inventory driving adjusted EBITDA higher, we will fill the last of our inside cabins, lowering our average net per diems.

隨著歐洲品牌在第二和第三季度趕上我們北美品牌的入住率並裝滿他們的船隻，推動調整後的 EBITDA 更高，它們將佔總數的更大比例，從而改變每位乘客的平均水平。由於他們歷史上較低的每日船上收入，我們將不再受益於品牌組合。此外，隨著我們繼續縮小與 2019 年入住率的差距，許多剩餘的客艙將被填滿或留在客艙內。隨著我們填補日益減少的剩餘庫存，推動調整後的 EBITDA 上升，我們將填補最後一個內艙，降低我們的平均每日淨津貼。

Now turning to costs. Off the base of our industry-leading cost structure, adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD for the full year 2023 versus 2019 are now expected to be up 8.5% to 9.5%. This is approximately 1 point higher than our December guidance, but for all the right reasons driving adjusted EBITDA higher.

現在轉向成本。基於我們行業領先的成本結構，與 2019 年相比，2023 年全年每 ALBD 的調整後郵輪成本（不含燃料）預計將增長 8.5% 至 9.5%。這比我們 12 月的指導高出約 1 個百分點，但出於所有正確的原因推動調整後的 EBITDA 更高。

First, with record booking levels on both sides of the Atlantic during the first quarter, we increased the occupancy levels on which our December cost guidance was based, driving food costs and certain other operating expenses higher but also driving adjusted EBITDA higher.

首先，由於第一季度大西洋兩岸的預訂量創歷史新高，我們提高了 12 月成本指引所依據的入住率，推高了食品成本和某些其他運營費用，同時也推高了調整後的 EBITDA。

Next, we reevaluated and increased our customer service and support staffing levels and associated costs around the globe given higher booking levels are occurring sooner than we previously thought.

接下來，我們重新評估並增加了我們的客戶服務和支持人員配備水平以及全球範圍內的相關成本，因為更高的預訂水平比我們之前想像的要早。

Third, with strengthening demand, we made the strategic decision for Costa to reenter into service its remaining idle capacity, which means additional restart expenses in 2023, but again, this will drive adjusted EBITDA higher.

第三，隨著需求的增強，我們做出了讓 Costa 重新投入使用其剩餘閒置產能的戰略決策，這意味著 2023 年的額外重啟費用，但這將再次推高調整後的 EBITDA。

Fourth, the opportunistic sale and charter back of Seaborne Odyssey earlier this month will reduce depreciation expense, but the resulting charter hire expense drives adjusted cruise costs higher. We will record a U.S. GAAP gain on the sale, but the gain will be excluded from adjusted cruise costs.

第四，本月早些時候 Seaborne Odyssey 的機會主義銷售和包租將減少折舊費用，但由此產生的包租費用推高調整後的郵輪成本。我們將記錄銷售的美國公認會計原則收益，但收益將不包括在調整後的遊輪成本中。

And finally, fifth, we see opportunities to set ourselves up for an even more successful 2024 and beyond by further tweaking up advertising expense later in 2023. Again, and I must sound like a broken record, this will drive adjusted cruise costs higher, but will also drive adjusted EBITDA higher.

最後，第五，我們看到了通過在 2023 年晚些時候進一步調整廣告費用來為 2024 年及以後更加成功做好準備的機會。再一次，我必須聽起來像是一個破紀錄，這將推高調整後的郵輪成本，但是也將推高調整後的 EBITDA。

As Josh said, we remain nimble and continue to aggressively seek opportunities to accelerate our path back to strong profitability. The details of depreciation and amortization, interest expense and fuel expense can be found in the business update press release we issued earlier this morning in the section titled Guidance. So I will not take the time to walk you through the numbers. However, I would like to thank our treasury team for the great job managing our debt portfolio with 75% of our debt having fixed interest rates, which is significantly higher than year-end 2021 when it was 58%, protecting us in what has been a rising rate environment.

正如 Josh 所說，我們保持靈活，並繼續積極尋找機會，以加速我們恢復強勁盈利能力的道路。有關折舊和攤銷、利息費用和燃料費用的詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的業務更新新聞稿中標題為“指南”的部分。因此，我不會花時間向您介紹這些數字。但是，我要感謝我們的財務團隊在管理我們的債務組合方面所做的出色工作，我們 75% 的債務具有固定利率，這大大高於 2021 年底時的 58%，保護了我們一直以來的狀況利率上升的環境。

Furthermore, for those of you modeling our fuel expense, please note that we expect MGO to represent around 40% of our fuel consumption for 2023 with the percentage slightly higher during the first half of the year. Putting all these factors together, we expect $3.9 billion to $4.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2023.

此外，對於那些為我們的燃料費用建模的人，請注意，我們預計 MGO 將占我們 2023 年燃料消耗的 40% 左右，今年上半年的百分比略高。綜合所有這些因素，我們預計 2023 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 39 億至 41 億美元。

And now I will finish up describing our financial position. I am smiling when I report that adjusted free cash flow turned positive in the first quarter of 2023 and we expect adjusted free cash flow to be positive for the full year 2023. I feel great as I report that we are beyond the peak of our total debt. Total debt peaked at over $35 billion in the first quarter of 2023 when we drew on the export credit for P&O Cruises Arvia at the time of delivery. We believe with over $8 billion of liquidity, we are well positioned to pay down near-term debt maturities of $1.8 billion for the remainder of 2023 from excess liquidity. And by year-end, we expect our total debt to be down to approximately $33.5 billion.

現在我將結束對我們財務狀況的描述。當我報告調整後的自由現金流在 2023 年第一季度轉為正值時，我面帶微笑，我們預計調整後的自由現金流在 2023 年全年都將為正值。當我報告說我們已經超過了總和的峰值時，我感覺很好債務。 2023 年第一季度，當我們在交付時為 P&O Cruises Arvia 提取出口信貸時，總債務達到超過 350 億美元的峰值。我們相信，憑藉超過 80 億美元的流動性，我們有能力在 2023 年剩餘時間內償還因流動性過剩而到期的 18 億美元短期債務。到年底，我們預計我們的總債務將降至約 335 億美元。

In addition, our debt maturity towers have been well managed through 2024, which has $2.5 billion of debt maturities next year. And looking forward, I expect substantial increases in adjusted free cash flow in 2024 and beyond through durable revenue growth and gross margin improvement to drive down our debt balances on our path back to investment grade. And as a result, we have no intention to issue equity.

此外，我們的債務到期塔在 2024 年之前得到了很好的管理，明年有 25 億美元的債務到期。展望未來，我預計 2024 年及以後調整後的自由現金流將通過持續的收入增長和毛利率的改善而大幅增加，從而降低我們回到投資級別的債務餘額。因此，我們無意發行股票。

Before I turn the call over to the operator, let me remind you to visit our website for our first quarter business update release and presentation.

在我將電話轉給接線員之前，讓我提醒您訪問我們的網站以獲取我們第一季度的業務更新發布和演示。

Now operator, let's open up the call for questions.

現在接線員，讓我們打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

A couple of questions for you. First off, you talked about only having, I would say, less desirable cabins left to sell. How did that play out in sort of how your booking volumes trended during the quarter and how it's related to pricing? Did you see any -- at the beginning of the quarter, say, December and January, stronger volumes, but then you sold out and then lower volumes later on, but maybe higher pricing as people shifted to longer, say, European vacations or Alaska cruises? Any shift in there. That's my first question.

問你幾個問題。首先，你談到只有，我會說，不那麼理想的小屋可以出售。這如何影響您的預訂量在本季度的趨勢以及它與定價的關係？你有沒有看到 - 在本季度開始時，比如 12 月和 1 月，銷量增加，但隨後你售罄，然後銷量下降，但隨著人們轉向更長的時間，比如歐洲假期或阿拉斯加，價格可能會更高郵輪？那裡有任何轉變。這是我的第一個問題。

So this is Josh. No, nothing discernible. I mean the fact is the volumes in the business over the entire wave period were just wave after wave, pun intended, a strength. And so we didn't see anything noticeable. David, just to be clear, mentioned the fact that it's not only insides left. It's just -- that's the majority of what we've got left. And when you're getting down to less than 7 points in Q2 and then finally catching up to historical over the summer, we're talking about just filling things out on the ends.

所以這是喬希。不，什麼都看不出來。我的意思是事實是，整個波浪時期的業務量只是一波又一波，雙關語，一種力量。所以我們沒有看到任何值得注意的東西。大衛，為了清楚起見，提到了這樣一個事實，即它不僅僅是內線。這只是 - 這是我們剩下的大部分內容。當你在第二季度下降到不到 7 分，然後在夏天終於趕上歷史水平時，我們談論的只是在結束時填補一些東西。

So we feel real good about the fact that we're over 70% booked for the remainder of the year. We're tracking well, and wave has continued.

因此，我們對今年剩餘時間的預訂率超過 70% 感到非常高興。我們跟踪得很好，浪潮還在繼續。

And by the way, I wouldn't call them less desirable. They're just different. And people have a great time in those cabins.

順便說一句，我不會說他們不太受歡迎。他們只是不同。人們在這些小屋裡玩得很開心。

Okay. I won't argue with that. My next question, can you talk about trends in book direct. Certainly, from my conversations with the trade, we hear that, especially on the shorter less expensive cruise, you're taking noticeable share in book direct. Can you comment on that at all?

好的。我不會反對的。我的下一個問題，你能直接談談書中的趨勢嗎？當然，從我與業內人士的談話中，我們聽說，尤其是在較短的較便宜的遊輪上，您在直接預訂中佔據了顯著的份額。你能對此發表評論嗎？

Overall, what we've said, and it's going to be consistent is that our direct business held up well. And we've really been working hard to help the trade get back up to what we know that they can achieve. And the fact is, as you heard me say in the -- in my prepared remarks, many of our brands exceeded 2019 levels with the trade. And overall, we're well on our way to get into those levels.

總的來說，我們所說的，並且將保持一致的是，我們的直接業務表現良好。我們真的一直在努力幫助貿易恢復到我們知道他們可以實現的水平。事實上，正如你聽到我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們的許多品牌都超過了 2019 年的交易水平。總的來說，我們正在順利進入這些級別。

So we feel actually fantastic about the performance that they've made to date, and we expect that momentum just like our own to continue. And we do think that all the work we've been doing on the revenue generation isn't just for ourselves. It's really in partnership with the trade and helps the trade. Because the more awareness we have, the more folks we get interested and the more they can help bring ultimately to our brands.

因此，我們對他們迄今為止的表現感到非常棒，我們希望這種勢頭能夠像我們自己一樣繼續下去。我們確實認為，我們在創收方面所做的所有工作不僅僅是為了我們自己。它確實與貿易合作並幫助貿易。因為我們的知名度越高，我們感興趣的人就越多，他們最終可以為我們的品牌帶來更多幫助。

Next question from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski 的下一個問題。

So Josh or David, just want to ask about the full year EBITDA guidance you provided this morning. And if we look at what you did in EBITDA in the first quarter, it exceeded your midpoint by, let's call it, about 30%. And that's with a pretty significant fuel and FX headwinds. So if we look at what you're guiding for the second quarter, you're essentially guiding to a little less than, let's call it, $3 billion in EBITDA for the second half of the year. And I guess the question is, that just seems incredibly, incredibly conservative given what you're seeing from a demand perspective, spending perspective, whatever you want to look at it.

所以 Josh 或 David，只想問問你今天早上提供的全年 EBITDA 指南。如果我們看一下您在第一季度的 EBITDA 中所做的，它超過了您的中點，我們稱之為，大約 30%。這是一個相當大的燃料和外匯逆風。因此，如果我們看一下您對第二季度的指導，您實際上是在指導下半年的 EBITDA 略低於 30 億美元。我想問題是，考慮到你從需求的角度、支出的角度，無論你想看什麼，這看起來都非常、非常保守。

So have you taken the view that the consumer slow some in the second half of the year? And if I ask that a little differently, is it safe to assume that the consumer does stay kind of where they are right now? There should be some pretty good upside to your guidance range. And look, I understand that David called out some change there in brand mix and cabin mix, but I'm just trying to figure out what that impact could be.

那麼您是否認為下半年消費放緩了一些？如果我問的有點不同，假設消費者確實停留在他們現在的位置是否安全？您的指導範圍應該有一些很好的上升空間。看，我知道大衛在品牌組合和機艙組合方面提出了一些變化，但我只是想弄清楚這種影響可能是什麼。

Yes. Look, I mean, we set our guidance based on a lot of variables, right? Some of the things, like I mentioned already, we're already 70% booked. We get to pull forward a good amount of our onboard spend, which has been an active initiative, as you know. We give a range to some extent because there are some things that can move little bits and pieces here and there. Overall, just like the first quarter, we are working incredibly hard to beat our own expectations. And so we'll continue to do that.

是的。看，我的意思是，我們根據很多變量來設定指導，對嗎？有些事情，就像我已經提到的，我們已經預訂了 70%。如您所知，我們可以提前支付大量機上支出，這是一項積極的舉措。我們在某種程度上給出了一個範圍，因為有些東西可以在這里和那裡移動一些點點滴滴。總的來說，就像第一季度一樣，我們正在非常努力地工作以超出我們自己的預期。因此，我們將繼續這樣做。

We have not seen a decline in consumer activity, and that's with respect to both the booking pace and onboard spending level. So despite the fact that there's some volatility out there, it hasn't yet -- if it ever does, it has not shown up in our business, and we want to maintain that and hopefully can lead to even stronger EBITDA as we work our way through the year.

我們沒有看到消費者活動有所下降，這與預訂速度和船上消費水平有關。因此，儘管存在一些波動，但它還沒有——如果有的話，它還沒有出現在我們的業務中，我們希望保持這一點，並希望在我們努力工作時能夠帶來更強勁的 EBITDA通過這一年的方式。

Okay. Got you. And then, Josh, you made it very clear in the press release that you believe the company is now in a very solid liquidity position and the use of equity won't be needed moving forward. So you've sat in your seat now for not a year, but let's call it over 6 months. Have you given any thought as to a time line now as to when Carnival, the corporation, could return to that important investment-grade status?

好的。明白了然後，喬希，你在新聞稿中非常明確地表示，你認為公司現在處於非常穩固的流動性狀況，未來將不需要使用股權。所以你現在坐在座位上還不到一年，但我們稱之為 6 個月以上。您是否考慮過嘉年華公司何時可以恢復到重要的投資級地位的時間表？

Our goal is certainly to get there. I'm a former treasurer, so that's quite important for all of us. The trajectory is going to be driven by significant free cash flow over time. We are working on longer-term views of the world. This is our first quarter. We just gave a full year outlook. So give me a little more time and we'll certainly start talking about longer-term targets and initiatives going forward.

我們的目標當然是到達那裡。我是前財務主管，所以這對我們所有人都非常重要。隨著時間的推移，這一軌跡將受到大量自由現金流的驅動。我們正在研究更長遠的世界觀。這是我們的第一季度。我們剛剛給出了全年展望。所以再給我一點時間，我們肯定會開始討論未來的長期目標和舉措。

But remember that getting back to investment grade is twofold. It's both improving EBITDA and paying down debt. And so as Josh mentioned in his prepared remarks, in 2024, we do expect to see considerably improved adjusted EBITDA as a result of the occupancy. And with the lower CapEx and only four ships on order and none for 2026, we do expect to be able to accelerate the paydown in debt.

但請記住，回到投資級別是雙重的。它既提高了 EBITDA 又減少了債務。因此，正如喬什在他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，到 2024 年，我們確實希望看到由於入住率的原因，調整後的 EBITDA 會大大改善。由於較低的資本支出和只有四艘船的訂單，而 2026 年沒有一艘，我們確實希望能夠加速償還債務。

Our next question from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 James Hardiman。

So maybe I'd ask one of the previous questions in a different way. Obviously, there's a lot of mix affecting per diems over the course of the year. Is there any way to sort of tease out the mix and the inner cabin impact? I guess I'm just trying to figure out if like-for-like per diems are getting better or getting worse, right? Obviously, throughout the rest of the consumer space, investors are [bracing] for a deceleration in pricing power as we work our way through the year.

所以也許我會以不同的方式問之前的一個問題。顯然，在這一年中，有很多因素會影響每日津貼。有什麼方法可以梳理出混合和內部機艙的影響嗎？我想我只是想弄清楚類似的每日津貼是變好還是變差，對吧？顯然，在我們全年努力的過程中，在整個其他消費領域，投資者正在 [支持] 定價能力的減速。

Obviously, in terms of space, it is a very different spot given where we've been. Maybe any way to think about sort of like-for-like pricing and what that tells us about the consumer?

顯然，就空間而言，考慮到我們去過的地方，這是一個非常不同的地方。也許有什麼方法可以考慮類似的定價以及它告訴我們關於消費者的什麼？

Sure. So thanks for the question, James. Like-for-like, the pricing is up. So we're very happy. As David said, I wish I had said, it was a really good line, they're not undesirable cabins. They're very desirable up and down, our fleet and our portfolio based on what particular guests are looking for, and they are paying more for it and spending more on board.

當然。詹姆斯，謝謝你的提問。同價位，漲價了。所以我們很高興。正如大衛所說，我希望我說過，這是一條非常好的線路，它們不是不受歡迎的客艙。他們上下都非常受歡迎，我們的機隊和我們的產品組合基於特定客人的需求，他們為此付出更多，在船上花費更多。

And you got to remember, and I've been here for a long time and I remember hearing this for the last 20 years, good times and bad, our business model holds up very well. And the reason why it holds up so well in a recession, if one comes, is because we are an incredible value to land, anywhere from 25% to 50% lower than the land-based equivalent. And so when people are looking to figure out how do I make my dollar go further, we can provide better value for their money for their vacation, which is still incredibly important, even more so now than it used to be in the past, the people will not give up. So we feel very good about our position.

你必須記住，我在這裡已經很長時間了，我記得在過去的 20 年裡聽到過這樣的話，無論是好時光還是壞時光，我們的商業模式都很好。它之所以在經濟衰退中保持如此之好，是因為我們擁有令人難以置信的土地價值，比陸地同等價值低 25% 至 50%。因此，當人們想弄清楚如何讓我的錢花得更遠時，我們可以為他們的假期提供物超所值的服務，這仍然非常重要，現在比過去更重要，人們不會放棄。因此，我們對自己的立場感到非常滿意。

The only thing I can add to that is I did say in my prepared remarks that we did expect the fourth quarter yields to be up compared to 2019. And that is sort of an indication of the higher pricing that we're expecting. And by the time we get to fourth quarter, a lot of the mix issues that we were talking about have disappeared.

我唯一可以補充的是，我在準備好的發言中確實說過，我們確實預計第四季度的收益率將高於 2019 年。這在某種程度上表明我們預期的定價更高。到第四季度時，我們討論的許多混合問題都消失了。

Pretty much all of them.

幾乎所有這些。

All of them, yes.

所有這些，是的。

Got it. Makes sense. And then maybe on the cost side. So I think costs were up roughly 6% in the first quarter. Constant currency, 10.5% to 11.5%. The second quarter, it seems like there was some moving around of costs within those numbers. But then 8.5% to 9.5% for the year. So presumably the back half of the year, those numbers are coming down. I guess I'm just trying to think about sort of an exit rate. You said you're still going to be spending on advertising later in the year. But ultimately, is there an opportunity for net cruise costs to come down in '24 versus '23? Or should I think about more of a normalized growth rate as we move beyond sort of the base level of 2023?

知道了。說得通。然後可能在成本方面。所以我認為第一季度的成本上漲了大約 6%。固定匯率，10.5% 至 11.5%。第二季度，這些數字中的成本似乎有所變化。但隨後是 8.5% 到 9.5%。所以大概在今年下半年，這些數字正在下降。我想我只是想考慮某種退出率。你說今年晚些時候你仍然會花在廣告上。但最終，與 23 年相比，24 年淨郵輪成本是否有機會下降？或者，當我們超越 2023 年的基本水平時，我應該更多地考慮正常化增長率嗎？

Sure. So to start with, you mentioned the first to the second quarter, and it did go up quite a bit, but there were really two things that drove that. There was -- remember, we increased occupancy from the first quarter to the second. You're talking about a 7 percentage point increase in occupancy. And so I'm very happy. That was a couple of points of the difference.

當然。所以首先，你提到了第一季度到第二季度，它確實上升了很多，但實際上有兩件事推動了這一點。有 - 請記住，我們從第一季度到第二季度增加了入住率。你說的是入住率增加 7 個百分點。所以我很高興。這是兩個不同點。

The other was dry dock, which was also worth 2 points because of the number of dry docks between the quarters. So 4 of the 5-point differential is just those two items. And there was also timing of R&M expenses.

另一個是乾船塢，由於宿舍之間幹船塢的數量，也值 2 分。所以 5 點差異中的 4 點就是這兩項。還有 R&M 費用的時間安排。

But as we've said many times before, judge us on costs for the full year and not any particular quarter. And we gave you our guidance for the full year, but we'll work hard as we always do, to do better than that. And that's a fairly reasonable run rate to think about going forward.

但正如我們之前多次說過的那樣，請根據全年而不是任何特定季度的成本來判斷我們。我們為您提供了全年的指導，但我們會一如既往地努力工作，做得更好。考慮到未來，這是一個相當合理的運行率。

One thing I just want to clarify because we're still in a little bit of a bizarre comparison structure that we're operating under this year. So when you talk about this year and then exit rates, you got to remember, we're talking about 2023 versus 2019, which is a 4-year gap in the comparison.

我只想澄清一件事，因為我們仍然處於今年運營的一個有點奇怪的比較結構中。因此，當你談論今年和退出率時，你必須記住，我們談論的是 2023 年與 2019 年，這是比較中的 4 年差距。

When we talk about what would '24 look like, which we're not talking about yet, remember, that's '24 versus '23. So that picture will look very, very different from the environment that we're describing to give a better sense of how we're doing versus the last normalized year of the industry, and which was 2019.

當我們談論 '24 會是什麼樣子時，我們還沒有談論，請記住，那是 '24 與 '23。因此，該圖片看起來與我們描述的環境非常非常不同，以便更好地了解我們與行業上一個正常化年份（即 2019 年）相比的表現。

Next question from the line of Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Fred Wightman 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

I wanted to follow up on the European consumer specifically. I know you sort of talked broadly about the North American consumer. But if we just look at that booking curve, which is trailing North America, I think you guys also made some comments about bookings picking up there recently and then just piece that all together with the Costa fleet coming back into service a little bit sooner. Can you sort of help us bridge the gap for all that and maybe where the European consumer is specifically?

我想專門跟進歐洲消費者。我知道您廣泛地談論了北美消費者。但是，如果我們只看一下落後於北美的預訂曲線，我想你們也對最近那裡的預訂量發表了一些評論，然後將它們與 Costa 機隊更快恢復服務結合起來。您能否幫助我們彌合所有這些以及歐洲消費者俱體所在的差距？

Yes. And it is all good news from our perspective. All of our brands over in the U.K. and Europe are experiencing strong demand. They've continued to outperform expectations on the closer environment that they have been operating under. But as we said, the good news is despite the fact that they're generating even more close-in demand than normal, they've also managed to extend their booking window over this period.

是的。從我們的角度來看，這都是好消息。我們在英國和歐洲的所有品牌都面臨著強勁的需求。他們在更密切的運營環境中繼續表現超出預期。但正如我們所說，好消息是儘管他們產生了比平時更多的近距離需求，但他們也設法延長了這段時間的預訂窗口。

So what that tells you is not only are they getting demand for the short term, but they're also beginning to normalize and think about making their holiday choices well in advance. And so pretty much across the board, we're really -- we are being supported by strong consumer sentiment in Europe for our European brands.

所以這告訴你的是，他們不僅獲得了短期需求，而且他們也開始正常化並考慮提前做出假期選擇。所以幾乎全面，我們真的 - 我們得到了歐洲消費者對我們歐洲品牌的強烈信心的支持。

Perfect. And then just on the ship pipeline, zero ships for '26, that's consistent with what you guys have talked about previously. But I think there was also in the past a comment about expecting 1 or 2 ship deliveries annually for several years beyond that. Is that still sort of the cadence and plan?

完美的。然後就在船舶管道上，26 年的船舶數量為零，這與你們之前談到的一致。但我認為過去也有人評論說，在此之後的幾年裡，每年都會交付 1 或 2 艘船。這仍然是那種節奏和計劃嗎？

It will certainly be -- that's certainly the plan 1 or 2. Whether that starts in 2027 or it starts after 2027 is still a question mark. And so we're very much focused, if you think about the pipeline over the next 4-plus years, it's the lowest it's ever been and it will continue to dwindle down as we get our way through the year.

肯定會——這肯定是計劃 1 或 2。是從 2027 年開始還是在 2027 年之後開始仍然是一個問號。因此，我們非常專注，如果你考慮未來 4 年多的管道，它是有史以來最低的，並且隨著我們完成這一年，它會繼續減少。

Next question from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

瑞銀集團 Robin Farley 的下一個問題。

Just wanted to clarify to your comments on the yield outlook. You talked about Q4 yields would be above 2019 levels, sort of suggesting that Q3 would not be. But I think you said that occupancy will be back to full by Q3. And I think you said elsewhere that per diems in each quarter would be higher than 2019. So it seems like that should get to yield above 2019 levels in Q3. So if you could just clarify that, there's maybe a piece there I'm not factoring in.

只是想澄清一下您對收益率前景的評論。你談到第四季度的收益率將高於 2019 年的水平，這有點暗示第三季度不會。但我想你說過入住率將在第三季度恢復到滿員狀態。我想你在其他地方說過，每個季度的每日津貼將高於 2019 年。因此，第三季度的收益率似乎應該高於 2019 年的水平。所以如果你能澄清一下，可能有一塊我沒有考慮在內。

Yes. Well, we didn't give guidance for each and every quarter. I was trying to just indicate the fourth quarter for the specific reason that we talked about before in terms of with all of the mix issues we have, I wanted everybody to fully understand that pricing was up on a like-for-like basis. And I'd rather not sit here and give guidance for each quarter. But basically, we said what you had indicated, and we'll work hard to do better than that.

是的。好吧，我們沒有為每個季度提供指導。出於我們之前談到的所有混合問題的具體原因，我試圖指出第四季度，我希望每個人都充分理解定價是在類似的基礎上上漲的。而且我寧願不坐在這里為每個季度提供指導。但基本上，我們已經表達了您的意思，我們會努力做得更好。

Okay. Great. So you understand you're not guiding for Q3, but you're definitely not saying that it can't be above yield in '19, right? I just wanted to clarify that.

好的。偉大的。所以你知道你不是在指導第三季度，但你絕對不是說它不能超過 19 年的收益率，對吧？我只是想澄清一下。

And then also just wanted to -- you talked about your price being higher for the year, and in the release, you give the expression that like adjusted for FCC discounts. I think elsewhere, you said pricing per diems will be up 3% to 4% for '23 versus '19. When you say that pricing will be adjusted for FCC, are you suggesting that if you include the FCC discount in that, that you would not be above '19? Because I would think that FCC discount would only be a percentage point or so. So I'm just wondering why you're sort of calling out that it's higher if you adjust for the FCC? In other words, I don't know if I'm asking...

然後也只是想 - 你談到你今年的價格更高，並且在發布中，你表達了喜歡針對 FCC 折扣進行調整的表達。我認為在其他地方，你說 23 年的每日津貼定價將比 19 年上漲 3% 到 4%。當你說定價將針對 FCC 進行調整時，你是在暗示如果你在其中包括 FCC 折扣，你就不會超過 19 年嗎？因為我認為 FCC 折扣只會是一個百分點左右。所以我只是想知道為什麼你會說如果你針對 FCC 進行調整它會更高？換句話說，我不知道我是否在問...

Yes. No problem, Robin. Just to be clear, we are projecting net per diems up 3% to 4% for the year, and that's inclusive of FCC drag. So without that drag, it would be even higher.

是的。沒問題，羅賓。需要明確的是，我們預計今年的淨每日津貼將增長 3% 至 4%，其中包括 FCC 拖累。因此，如果沒有這種阻力，它會更高。

It would be up either way. We just -- we've been calling that out every quarter going after the last couple of years. So I guess we continue to call it out, but it'd be up either way.

無論哪種方式都會上升。我們只是 - 在過去幾年之後，我們每個季度都在呼籲這一點。所以我想我們會繼續大聲疾呼，但無論哪種方式都會上升。

And is the FCC drag, is that right, thinking that it would only be about 1% -- somewhere in the 1% range or...

FCC 的拖累是對的嗎，認為它只有 1% 左右——在 1% 範圍內的某個地方，或者……

Yes, 1% on total net yields for the year. A little bit higher in the first half and a little bit lower in the second half.

是的，佔當年總淨收益率的 1%。上半場高一點，下半場低一點。

Okay. Great. And then by next year, by '24, is it fair to assume that there wouldn't be any FCC use after '23?

好的。偉大的。然後到明年，到 24 年，假設在 23 年之後不會有任何 FCC 使用是否公平？

It was less than 0.1 point. It's minimal. It's just a few left over.

不到0.1分。這是最小的。只剩下幾個了。

Next question from the line of Ben Chaiken with Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸 Ben Chaiken 的下一個問題。

On the last couple of calls and this one, you've spoken about higher advertising expense. Are you able to ballpark either on net cruise cost, basis points or absolute dollars, what this incremental spend is? And then is it the right run rate? Or does it normalize in the future? And then I've got one quick follow-up.

在上幾次和這一次的電話中，您談到了更高的廣告費用。您是否能夠根據淨遊輪成本、基點或絕對美元估算出增量支出是多少？然後它是正確的運行率嗎？或者它會在未來正常化嗎？然後我有一個快速跟進。

Yes. So the net -- on a net cruise cost basis, it's about versus 2019, 1.5 points, of net cruise cost increase. And as far as the run rate is concerned, Josh?

是的。所以淨值——在淨遊輪成本的基礎上，與 2019 年相比，淨遊輪成本增加了 1.5 個百分點。就運行率而言，Josh？

Yes. So we're up 1.5 points, which means we're still spending less than others in the cruise space on a per ALBD basis. We're very pleased with the results because by very nature, we can throttle up and throttle back. We can literally take it quarter-by-quarter and work with the brands to understand what's working and what's not.

是的。所以我們上升了 1.5 個百分點，這意味著我們在每個 ALBD 的基礎上在郵輪空間上的花費仍然少於其他人。我們對結果非常滿意，因為從本質上講，我們可以加速和減速。我們可以從字面上逐個季度進行分析，並與品牌合作以了解哪些有效，哪些無效。

Some things frankly didn't work as well as we had hoped. And so the brands have stopped doing it and they're leaning into other things. So it will be pretty fluid as well, what it should be. But what I can tell you, if you take a step back and you think about the results that we've experienced really over the last 6 months and accentuated over the last quarter, we think that's a significant tailwind for what the brands have been able to achieve.

坦率地說，有些事情並沒有像我們希望的那樣奏效。所以品牌已經停止這樣做，他們正在轉向其他事情。所以它也會很流暢，它應該是什麼。但我可以告訴你的是，如果你退後一步，想想我們在過去 6 個月中真正經歷並在上個季度得到強調的結果，我們認為這對品牌能夠做到的事情來說是一個重要的推動力實現。

Understood. And then on the last call, you provided a fuel, FX impact for 1Q relative to '19. You said it was $150 million I think subsequent to that, it kind of moved to $181 million. What does it look like for 2Q at the moment? And then any color on 3Q, 4Q?

明白了。然後在最後一次電話會議上，您提供了 1Q 相對於 19 年的燃料、外匯影響。你說這是 1.5 億美元，我認為在那之後，它有點變成了 1.81 億美元。目前 2Q 的情況如何？然後 3Q、4Q 有什麼顏色？

So let me get the detailed numbers for you. You're talking about versus 2019?

因此，讓我為您提供詳細的數字。你說的是 2019 年？

Yes. On the last call, you mentioned that -- you mentioned on the 4Q call, for 1Q, you said there'd be $150 million headwind relative to 1Q '19 for FX and fuel.

是的。在上次電話會議上，你提到了——你在第 4 季度的電話會議上提到，對於第 1 季度，你說相對於 19 年第 1 季度的外彙和燃料將有 1.5 億美元的逆風。

Yes. Okay.

是的。好的。

I'm saying what does that look like for 2Q at the moment? And then what -- any color on 3Q, 4Q would be very helpful as well.

我是說目前第二季度的情況如何？然後 - 3Q、4Q 上的任何顏色也會非常有幫助。

So Q2 would be about $75 million of fuel and currency headwinds. I don't have Q3 and Q4, but I can give you the full year. Let's see. For the full year, fuel and currency is -- let's see, it's $430 million, call it.

因此，第二季度將有大約 7500 萬美元的燃料和貨幣逆風。我沒有 Q3 和 Q4，但我可以給你全年。讓我們來看看。全年，燃料和貨幣是——讓我們看看，它是 4.3 億美元，稱之為。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brandt Montour。

So just starting with yields. The fleet overhaul that you guys did during the pandemic, hypothetically would have a large positive mixed impact for net yields now versus '19. It's a little hard to see that in your guidance, but there's plenty of residual drags in '23. And obviously, much of the book was put in place before the advertising push, right, and last year. So I guess when you adjust out all of the drags that you have this year and maybe take out Australia and Asia and Eastern Europe, are you seeing -- do you feel like you're seeing a tailwind -- a material tailwind from that overhaul?

所以只是從收益率開始。你們在大流行期間進行的機隊大修，假設現在與 19 年相比，會對淨收益率產生巨大的積極混合影響。在您的指導中很難看出這一點，但 23 年仍有很多殘留阻力。很明顯，這本書的大部分內容都是在廣告投放之前就已經到位的，就在去年。所以我想當你調整今年所有的拖累，也許去掉澳大利亞、亞洲和東歐時，你是否看到——你覺得你看到了順風——大修帶來的實質性順風？

So the answer is yes, we do. And one of the difficulties of looking at a 4-year period in trying to piece together everything that builds up to where we are. I mean, there's a lot that's happened over a 4-year period. You think about -- I mean you just say, exclude Asia and exclude Australia is restarted and then exclude St. Petersburg and which was 7.5% of our business in 2020 -- 2019 Q3. There's quite a lot that we have overcome in order to be able to deliver higher per diems as we get to close the gap. So I -- we can probably banter, you and I, I see you enough. We can banter about all the bits and pieces that go in different directions. But I think we've tried to boil it down to what we think are the real drivers of the business.

所以答案是肯定的，我們有。在試圖拼湊所有構成我們現狀的 4 年期間的困難之一。我的意思是，在 4 年的時間裡發生了很多事情。你想想——我的意思是你只是說，排除亞洲並排除澳大利亞重新啟動，然後排除聖彼得堡，它在 2020 年占我們業務的 7.5%——2019 年第三季度。為了能夠在縮小差距的同時提供更高的每日津貼，我們已經克服了很多困難。所以我——我們可能可以開玩笑，你和我，我看你夠多了。我們可以就不同方向的所有點點滴滴開玩笑。但我認為我們已經嘗試將其歸結為我們認為是業務的真正驅動力。

Okay. And then maybe just a follow-up to Ben's question on looking at EBITDA per ALBD ex-fuel and FX. I noticed that, Josh, your commentary about exiting the year, rivaling 4Q '19 was that commentary was essentially unchanged from 3 months ago. But again, 3 months ago was before this record wave season. So I guess the question is, do you feel any better about that comment 3 months later?

好的。然後也許只是 Ben 關於查看每個 ALBD 前燃料和外彙的 EBITDA 的問題的後續行動。我注意到，喬什，你關於退出今年的評論，與 19 年第四季度的競爭是評論與 3 個月前基本沒有變化。但同樣，3 個月前是這個創紀錄的浪潮季節之前。所以我想問題是，三個月後你對那個評論感覺好點了嗎？

Yes. You bet I do. So we're working hard. We outperformed in the first quarter. We're expecting 50 and we got to 60. We're about 2/3 forecasted for the second quarter on that basis. And we're just working -- everybody is working incredibly hard to make that come to fruition as quickly as we can.

是的。你打賭我知道。所以我們正在努力工作。我們在第一季度表現出色。我們預計有 50 個，結果達到了 60 個。在此基礎上，我們對第二季度的預測約為 2/3。我們只是在努力——每個人都在非常努力地工作，以盡快實現這一目標。

Next question from the line of Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

來自 Infinity Research 的 Assia Georgieva 的下一個問題。

Congratulations on the very good results for Q1. Josh, I had a question, kind of longer-term question again, in terms of new builds, given the fact that it usually takes 3 to 4 years from the point when we put in the order. Are you thinking -- and again, with the treasury background being more conservative, are you thinking of continuing to sort of reducing the rate of new build growth, the capacity growth? Or can we see acceleration once we get to investment grade?

祝賀第一季度取得了很好的成績。喬希，我有一個問題，又是一個長期問題，就新建築而言，考慮到從我們下訂單開始通常需要 3 到 4 年的時間。你是否在想——再一次，隨著財政部的背景更加保守，你是否在考慮繼續降低新建築增長率、產能增長？或者一旦我們達到投資級別，我們能看到加速嗎？

We tried to, I think, give that philosophy by using our 1 to 2 ships a year once we start ordering again. And so by its very nature, that will be a lower capacity rate of increase than we have experienced for a very, very long time. I feel with 4 ships on order plus a small expedition ship, and that's it through 2025. We know we're not getting anything for 26, 27 to push. We'll see. It sets us up incredibly well to be able to generate free cash flow, pay down debt. As David mentioned, our EBITDA increases, get back to 3.5x debt-to-EBITDA and be much better positioned to be making new build decisions, frankly, for the future.

我認為，一旦我們再次開始訂購，我們試圖通過每年使用 1 到 2 艘船來傳達這種理念。因此，就其本質而言，這將是一個比我們在很長一段時間內所經歷的更低的產能增長率。我覺得訂購了 4 艘船加上一艘小型遠征船，到 2025 年就這樣了。我們知道我們沒有得到任何東西來推動 26、27。我們拭目以待。它使我們能夠產生自由現金流，償還債務。正如大衛提到的那樣，我們的 EBITDA 增加了，回到了 3.5 倍的債務與 EBITDA 之間，坦率地說，我們更有能力為未來做出新的構建決策。

Okay. That makes perfect sense. I believe that in the past, we're looking to maybe 1 or 2 ships per year per brand as opposed to -- per the corporate entity?

好的。這是完全有道理的。我相信在過去，我們希望每個品牌每年可能有 1 到 2 艘船，而不是 - 每個公司實體？

No, no, no, no. That would have been a much higher growth rate. We were probably somewhere between 3 and 5 ships a year depending on the brand. Remember, we have nine brands. So we've got plenty to diversify our new-build growth strategy over time.

不不不不。那將是一個更高的增長率。根據品牌的不同，我們每年大概有 3 到 5 艘船。請記住，我們有九個品牌。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們有很多東西可以使我們的新建增長戰略多樣化。

Next question from the line of Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

Stephen Grambling 與摩根士丹利的下一個問題。

Just thinking about the ship pipeline. You talked about the gross adds, but the other side of the equation is any attrition. Are we now in the normal retirement cycle for the fleet where we should more or less expect maybe 1 to 2 per year? Or did you pull forward some retirements that could actually be lower going forward?

只是考慮船舶管道。你談到了總增加，但等式的另一面是任何減員。我們現在是否處於機隊的正常退役週期中，我們應該或多或少地期望每年 1 到 2 次？或者你是否提前了一些實際上可能更低的退休計劃？

Yes, we definitely pulled forward some ships that could have been done at a later time. So not anticipating anything of significance over the next couple of years, and then we'll probably pick back up the cadence that you're talking about over time, but nothing imminent.

是的，我們確實提前了一些本可以稍後完成的船隻。所以在接下來的幾年裡不要期待任何重要的事情，然後我們可能會隨著時間的推移恢復你正在談論的節奏，但沒有什麼是迫在眉睫的。

That's helpful. And then you talked about a few of the non-ship related projects, Grand Bahama, Private Islands, et cetera. Can you talk a bit more about how those could potentially impact yields and how the investments may compare to what you've done in the past?

這很有幫助。然後你談到了一些與船舶無關的項目，大巴哈馬島、私人島嶼等。你能多談談這些可能如何影響收益率以及這些投資與你過去所做的相比如何嗎？

Yes. Well, I mean, as a starting point, we have a phenomenal footprint in the Caribbean. I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, Half Moon Cay being pretty much a jewel of the Caribbean in the Bahamas.

是的。好吧，我的意思是，作為起點，我們在加勒比地區擁有驚人的足跡。我想我在準備好的發言中提到過，半月礁幾乎是巴哈馬加勒比地區的一顆明珠。

With the ability for us to generate more differentiated experiences through Grand port, that will absolutely help the Carnival Cruise Line brand, not only on the yield side, but also on the cost side. We're talking about being able to put another incredibly attractive destination in a very short distance from South Florida, the East Coast of the United States, which helps us tremendously on the cost side, on the carbon footprint side.

憑藉我們通過大港口產生更多差異化體驗的能力，這絕對有助於嘉年華郵輪品牌，不僅在收益方面，而且在成本方面。我們正在談論能夠在距美國東海岸南佛羅里達州很近的地方放置另一個極具吸引力的目的地，這在成本方面和碳足跡方面對我們有很大幫助。

And with what we're doing on Half Moon Cay, by adding a pier, that will open up a lot more opportunity for us to bring bigger ships to that island, more guests, a better guest experience and more opportunity to generate not only enhanced ticket pricing because of that, but also onboard spend in the form of spending on board our destinations.

通過我們在半月礁所做的工作，通過增加一個碼頭，這將為我們帶來更多的機會，讓更大的船隻到達該島，帶來更多的客人，更好的客人體驗，以及更多的機會來產生不僅增強因此，機票價格，還有在我們目的地的船上消費形式的船上消費。

Next question from the line of Chris Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Chris Stathoulopoulos 與 Susquehanna 的對話。

Josh, you spent a lot of time going through these various revenue and marketing initiatives in your prepared remarks. Could you help frame or give some color, as we think about the guide here for EBITDA for the full year, how we should -- perhaps we could put those in buckets, how we should think about incremental revenue for these initiatives here versus any cost and efficiency related efforts net of what's, as you said, likely to be elevated marketing costs for the midterm?

喬希，你在準備好的發言中花了很多時間來研究這些不同的收入和營銷計劃。當我們在這裡考慮全年 EBITDA 的指南時，您能否幫助構建或給出一些顏色，我們應該如何 - 也許我們可以將它們放在桶中，我們應該如何考慮這些舉措的增量收入與任何成本和效率相關的努力，如您所說，可能會增加中期的營銷成本？

So I'm going to try to answer your question. Some of the things that the brands have been working on, what we've seen is a fairly immediate in-year benefit, right? The ability for us to be better at our search engine optimization, driving more people to be looking for us to begin with. We can measure those things, and we can see results.

所以我會試著回答你的問題。品牌一直在努力的一些事情，我們看到的是相當直接的年內收益，對吧？我們能夠更好地進行搜索引擎優化，從而促使更多人開始尋找我們。我們可以衡量這些東西，我們可以看到結果。

There are other things that we're doing specifically with respect to introducing fare types that brands have never had before, some brands doing nonrefundable deposit there they have never done that. We can weigh that up in year pretty quickly.

關於引入品牌以前從未有過的票價類型，我們正在做其他一些事情，一些品牌在那裡進行不可退還的押金，他們從未這樣做過。我們可以很快地在一年內權衡一下。

There are other things that are going to be having impacts not just for this year, but frankly, on a much longer-term basis as well, primarily around how we're managing our booking curve and being able to extend that out further, being able to be better differentiated in the market, driving more demand over time.

還有其他一些事情不僅會在今年產生影響，坦率地說，也會在更長期的基礎上產生影響，主要是圍繞我們如何管理我們的預訂曲線並能夠進一步擴展它，是能夠更好地在市場中脫穎而出，隨著時間的推移推動更多的需求。

So candidly, I'm not sure I'm answering your question, but I don't think it's so easy to try to fit into particular buckets of EBITDA particularly for this year, if that's what you were looking for.

坦率地說，我不確定我是否在回答你的問題，但我認為，如果你正在尋找的話，那麼嘗試將其納入特定的 EBITDA 桶並不是那麼容易，尤其是今年。

The only thing I want to add is that there are a lot of different efforts -- efficiency efforts going on all around the company. We did build all of that into our cost guidance. Remember, the cost numbers, as Josh pointed out, are over a 4-year period. This is in comparison to 2019. So there has been a lot of inflation during that 4 years. but we have built a lot of efficiencies as well.

我唯一想補充的是，有很多不同的努力——整個公司都在努力提高效率。我們確實將所有這些納入了我們的成本指南。請記住，正如 Josh 指出的那樣，成本數字超過 4 年。這是與 2019 年相比。所以這 4 年通貨膨脹很大。但我們也提高了很多效率。

Yes. And taking a step back from advertising, but just the concept of how are we looking at our business overall, we've tried to stress throughout. We're starting with an industry-leading cost structure, and we certainly want to maintain that. We're always looking from an operational standpoint, how can we do better? How can we improve? And we're doing things like benchmarking, the same class of ships across multiple brands. We're looking at ways to further leverage our spend through our global sourcing initiatives. That's ongoing, and that will continue, some of which the benefit we know we're seeing already. Some of which will factor in as we make our way through 2023 and really start benefiting in 2024.

是的。並從廣告中退後一步，但只是我們如何看待我們的整體業務的概念，我們一直試圖強調。我們從行業領先的成本結構開始，我們當然希望保持這種結構。我們總是從運營的角度來看，我們如何才能做得更好？我們如何改進？我們正在做一些事情，比如基準測試，跨多個品牌的同級別船舶。我們正在尋找通過我們的全球採購計劃進一步利用我們的支出的方法。這種情況正在發生，並將繼續發生，其中一些好處我們已經看到了。隨著我們在 2023 年取得進展並在 2024 年真正開始受益，其中一些將成為影響因素。

Okay. And to follow up, a little bit of a tougher or more direct question, if you will. So your capacity guide is up about 1.5 points from December. The cost guide is up and there's some confusion around here around your brand and cabin mix, if you will. And I think part of the reason, if we look at January into mid-February around some of the enthusiasm around the stock was at that time, that 3% or kind of sort of a typical capacity guide for Carnival and believe that, that would help sort of accelerate your unit margin recovery.

好的。如果願意，可以跟進一個更棘手或更直接的問題。因此，您的容量指南比 12 月提高了約 1.5 個百分點。成本指南已經發布，如果您願意的話，這裡圍繞您的品牌和機艙組合存在一些混亂。我認為部分原因是，如果我們看看 1 月到 2 月中旬左右，當時對該股的一些熱情是 3% 或某種典型的嘉年華產能指南，並相信那會有助於加速您的單位利潤率恢復。

So what would you say in response? And this is a question I've gone today that sort of Carnival -- liquidity, I would say, for the first half, at least risk here is off the table. But what would you say in response to that with the guidance update today that Carnival is not going to revert back to its sort of old playbook, if you will? And then what I mean by that is really just some of the numbers here where we have the 4.5 or mid-single-digit capacity growth and the higher cost guide and then concern around the pricing integrity here?

那麼你會怎麼回應呢？這是我今天提出的一個問題，就是那種狂歡節——流動性，我想說，在上半年，至少這裡的風險是不存在的。但是，如果您願意的話，您會如何回應今天的指南更新，嘉年華不會恢復到它的那種舊劇本？然後我的意思是這真的只是這裡的一些數字，我們有 4.5 或中個位數的容量增長和更高的成本指南，然後關注這裡的定價完整性？

Sure. So just to be clear, the only difference in our capacity from what we were saying last quarter until now is because of the strength in demand that we're seeing for the Costa brand because of what we've been doing. We have the opportunity to introduce a ship earlier than we expected, which is going to actually help liquidity because it's going to drive EBITDA. So we feel very, very good about that decision.

當然。所以要明確一點，我們上個季度到現在所說的產能的唯一區別是，由於我們一直在做的事情，我們對 Costa 品牌的需求強勁。我們有機會比我們預期的更早推出一艘船，這實際上將有助於流動性，因為它將推動 EBITDA。所以我們對這個決定感覺非常非常好。

We actually have a track record of doing real well on the cost side. So I think if we can maintain that type of discipline, then we'll be well served. Everything else that we talked about in the last quarter still holds. We're more enthusiastic now given the fact that we just had record breaking wave, brands are more set in their plans, and we're pushing forward.

我們實際上有在成本方面做得很好的記錄。所以我認為，如果我們能夠保持這種紀律，那麼我們就會得到很好的服務。我們在上個季度討論的所有其他內容仍然有效。我們現在更加熱情，因為我們剛剛創下了破紀錄的浪潮，品牌在他們的計劃中更加確定，我們正在推進。

And I would like to add on the cost. The majority of the increase was associated with higher occupancy. And remember, we put together our forecast back last November. We give -- we have our earnings call in December, very early in the month. And so that was a forecast that we had put together prior to Black Friday, Cyber Monday and all of the record bookings that we saw throughout December, January and February.

我想增加成本。大部分增長與更高的入住率有關。請記住，我們在去年 11 月匯總了我們的預測。我們給出了 - 我們在 12 月的財報電話會議上，很早的時候。因此，這是我們在黑色星期五、網絡星期一以及我們在整個 12 月、1 月和 2 月看到的所有創紀錄預訂之前所做的預測。

So when you've got extra occupancy on board the ship, your costs are going to go up on a unit basis a little bit because remember, the ALBDs don't change or the denominator doesn't change. So it's all very good news, driving adjusted EBITDA higher, driving liquidity -- improved liquidity. And so we are far more confident than we -- today than we were back in December, as Josh indicated before.

所以當你在船上有額外的入住率時，你的成本將在單位基礎上增加一點，因為請記住，ALBD 不會改變或分母不會改變。所以這都是非常好的消息，推動調整後的 EBITDA 更高，推動流動性 - 改善流動性。因此，正如 Josh 之前指出的那樣，我們比我們更有信心 - 今天比我們在 12 月份回來時更有信心。

I think this has to be the last question. Operator?

我認為這必須是最後一個問題。操作員？

Yes.

是的。

One more question.

還有一個問題。

We'll take one more. The last question from the line of Paul Golding with Macquarie Capital.

我們再拿一個。 Paul Golding 與 Macquarie Capital 的最後一個問題。

I wanted to ask around other ship operating from a dry dock perspective. Is there a potential quantification of this for us in terms of what's left? I think a lot of us were under the impression that through COVID and warm and cold layup, a lot of this has been worked through, and I recognize that this is for a reinstatement of the ship. But is there a way to quantify that?

我想從乾船塢的角度詢問其他船舶。在剩下的方面，我們是否有可能對此進行量化？我想我們很多人的印像是，通過 COVID 和冷熱擱置，很多事情都已經解決了，我認識到這是為了恢復這艘船。但是有沒有辦法量化呢？

And then secondly, on marketing, anything we think about on cadence, not necessarily total spend, but cadence relative to the offset in Australia and Asia restarts as we look at the next year, year and change?

其次，在營銷方面，我們考慮的是節奏，不一定是總支出，而是相對於澳大利亞和亞洲抵消的節奏，當我們展望明年、下一年和變化時，會重新開始嗎？

Yes. So as far as dry dock is concerned, yes, there were a lot of ships that went into dry dock last year. But keep in mind, depending on the ship -- depending on the age of the ship, either ships have to go into dry dock once every 5 years or twice every 5 years. So it's -- there are lots of differences, and we're always going to have dry docks every year. They do vary, and we try to give an indication.

是的。所以就乾船塢而言，是的，去年有很多船進入乾船塢。但請記住，根據船舶的不同——根據船齡，任何一艘船都必須每 5 年進入乾船塢一次或每 5 年兩次。所以它 - 有很多差異，我們每年都會有乾船塢。它們確實有所不同，我們試圖給出一個指示。

2022 was an unusually high year because of the restart, but we do expect that dry docks this year and every year thereafter on a regular basis as we go forward. And as far as the cadence on the restart is concerned?

由於重新啟動，2022 年是異常高的一年，但我們確實希望在我們前進的過程中，今年和此後每年定期進行幹船塢。就重啟的節奏而言？

On the advertising front, it's pretty consistent quarter-over-quarter for the rest of the year. Things do slide from quarter-to-quarter, but nothing, I think, is worth pointing out.

在廣告方面，今年剩餘時間的季度環比相當穩定。事情確實從一個季度到另一個季度有所下滑，但我認為沒有什麼值得指出的。

And our plans might change, as Josh indicated before. So it's very hard to give that level of detailed guidance.

正如 Josh 之前指出的那樣，我們的計劃可能會改變。所以很難給出那種程度的詳細指導。

So with that, I have to say thanks, everybody, for joining and talk to you next quarter. Thank you.

因此，我必須感謝大家下個季度加入並與你們交談。謝謝。

That concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation and ask you to please disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。