嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. This is Josh Weinstein. Welcome to our third quarter 2022 business update conference call, my first as CEO. I'm joined today telephonically by our Chair, Micky Arison. And with me here in our Miami offices, our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Beth Roberts.

早上好。這是喬什·溫斯坦。歡迎參加我們的 2022 年第三季度業務更新電話會議，這是我作為 CEO 的第一次電話會議。今天，我們的主席 Micky Arison 通過電話與我會面。和我一起在邁阿密的辦公室，我們的首席財務官大衛伯恩斯坦；和我們的投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

在我開始之前，請注意我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。因此，我必須向您介紹今天新聞稿中的警示性聲明。

Our business continues on a positive trajectory. We've been closing the gap to 2019 as we put a stake in the ground internally and shifted from return to service to a relentless focus on return to strong profitability. The occupancy gap to 2019 has reduced from over 50 points in Q1 to less than 30 points in Q3. At the same time, our capacity in service has gone from approximately 60% in Q1 to over 90% in Q3. In fact, in the month of August, we achieved almost 90% occupancy at higher constant dollar revenue per diems despite the impact of future cruise credits. And the differential in adjusted cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD, has reduced from over $25 in Q1 down to $10 in Q3. As a result, we were able to generate over $300 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, overcoming a near doubling in fuel prices.

我們的業務繼續朝著積極的方向發展。我們一直在縮小到 2019 年的差距，因為我們在內部投入了股份，並從回歸服務轉向不懈地關注回歸強勁的盈利能力。到 2019 年的入住率差距已從第一季度的 50 多點減少到第三季度的不到 30 點。與此同時，我們的服務能力已從第一季度的約 60% 上升到第三季度的 90% 以上。事實上，在 8 月份，儘管受到未來郵輪積分的影響，我們以更高的固定美元每日收入實現了近 90% 的入住率。調整後的巡航成本（不包括每個 ALBD 的燃料）的差異已從第一季度的超過 25 美元降至第三季度的 10 美元。因此，我們能夠在第三季度產生超過 3 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，克服了燃料價格幾乎翻倍的影響。

We expect these favorable trends to continue as we finish up 2022 and head into 2023. And while we expect breakeven to slightly negative fourth quarter EBITDA given the seasonality of revenues and our increasing investment in advertising to drive revenue yield in 2023, we do expect second half EBITDA overall to be positive. We've also been making strategic changes to our fleet composition that will pay dividends over time. Our global fleet of 91 ships has never been better positioned, thanks to the exiting of 23 smaller, less efficient ships and taking delivery of 9 large and very efficient ships.

我們預計，隨著我們在 2022 年結束並進入 2023 年，這些有利趨勢將繼續下去。儘管鑑於收入的季節性以及我們在 2023 年增加對廣告的投資以推動收入收益率，我們預計第四季度 EBITDA 的盈虧平衡將略微為負，但我們確實預計第二季度一半的 EBITDA 總體為正。我們還一直在對我們的機隊組成進行戰略性調整，隨著時間的推移將獲得回報。由於 23 艘較小、效率較低的船舶退出並接收了 9 艘大型且非常高效的船舶，我們的全球 91 艘船舶的船隊處於前所未有的最佳位置。

While we'll all be 4 years older than we were in 2019, next year, the average age of our fleet will actually be a year younger than in 2019 at 12 years. It also means our average berth count per ship is increasing nearly 20%, the largest amongst our public peers. We expect benefits of this profile to include a fleet with 10% higher fuel efficiency, 6% more efficiency in remaining operating costs, a richer cabin mix and larger overall platforms to deliver onboard experiences and generate associated revenues.

雖然我們都將比 2019 年大 4 歲，但明年，我們機隊的平均年齡實際上將比 2019 年年輕 12 歲。這也意味著我們每艘船的平均泊位數量增加了近 20%，在我們的公共同行中是最大的。我們預計這種配置的好處包括燃油效率提高 10%、剩餘運營成本效率提高 6%、更豐富的客艙組合和更大的整體平台，以提供機上體驗並產生相關收入。

We have also begun to address the brand portfolio to improve ROIC and drive durable top and bottom line growth. In light of the continued closure of cruise operations in China and our Costa brand's significant presence there pre-COVID, we are reducing Costa's capacity by 10% from 2019 levels, while bolstering our highly successful Carnival Cruise Line brand through the previously announced transfer of 3 ships, including 2 via our innovative Costa by Carnival initiative launching in 2023. All 3 ships will be placed on new itineraries, allowing Carnival to expand its drive-to cruise offering.

我們還開始著手解決品牌組合問題，以提高投資回報率並推動持續的頂線和底線增長。鑑於中國郵輪業務的持續關閉以及我們的歌詩達品牌在 COVID 之前在中國的重要業務，我們將歌詩達的運力從 2019 年的水平減少 10%，同時通過之前宣布的 3遊輪，其中包括 2 艘通過我們於 2023 年推出的創新型 Costa by Carnival 計劃。所有 3 艘遊輪都將被安排在新的航線上，從而使 Carnival 能夠擴大其自駕游輪服務。

We will continue to evaluate opportunities to further optimize our brand portfolio over time. These fleet and portfolio decisions will provide strong tailwinds. And while during the pause in operations, being nearly twice the size of the next closest cruise company was a distinct disadvantage for our cash burn, we will once again benefit from our industry-leading scale. And there are even greater opportunities ahead to drive revenue as we return to full occupancy and march towards strong profitability.

隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續評估進一步優化我們的品牌組合的機會。這些機隊和投資組合決策將提供強大的順風。雖然在運營暫停期間，規模幾乎是下一個最接近的郵輪公司的兩倍對我們的現金消耗來說是一個明顯的劣勢，但我們將再次受益於我們行業領先的規模。隨著我們恢復滿員並邁向強勁的盈利能力，未來還有更大的機會來推動收入。

Throughout the pause, we have benefited from the dedicated support of our loyal guests. Now as we grow capacity in 2023 and beyond, we are redoubling efforts to attract new-to-cruise guests. About 1/3 of our guests have historically been new-to-cruise. And as you probably know, 2 of the most important drivers of new-to-cruise are word of mouth and advertising.

在整個停頓期間，我們受益於忠實客人的全力支持。現在，隨著我們在 2023 年及以後增加運力，我們正在加倍努力吸引新的郵輪客人。我們約有 1/3 的客人歷來是郵輪新手。您可能知道，新遊輪最重要的兩個驅動因素是口碑和廣告。

With respect to word of mouth, after the pause, we have been building back our army of advocates that leave the ships, spreading the word about the unparalleled vacation experiences we deliver day in and day out. In the third quarter alone, we carried twice the number of guests we carried in all of 2021, and over 50% more than in just the prior quarter.

關於口耳相傳，在暫停之後，我們一直在重建我們離開船隻的擁護者隊伍，宣傳我們日復一日提供的無與倫比的假期體驗。僅在第三季度，我們承載的客人數量就達到了 2021 年全年的兩倍，比上一季度增加了 50% 以上。

On the advertising front, we've also been ramping up our efforts, having reached 2019 spend levels in just the last 2 quarters. In fact, until 6 months ago, we had spent less on advertising cumulatively over a 2-year period than in all of 2019, and most of this was directed at more efficient channels like past guests. This was a conscious decision to re-prioritize our resources to withstand the pause. As our brands have now been increasing their advertising investment, we will increase awareness and consideration and actively target those new-to-cruise.

在廣告方面，我們也一直在加大努力，僅在過去兩個季度就達到了 2019 年的支出水平。事實上，直到 6 個月前，我們在 2 年的時間裡累計在廣告上的花費比 2019 年全年還要少，而且其中大部分是針對過去客人等更高效的渠道。這是一個有意識的決定，重新排列我們的資源以承受停頓。由於我們的品牌現在一直在增加他們的廣告投資，我們將提高知名度和考慮，並積極瞄準那些新來的遊輪。

While we're still carrying a higher proportion of repeat guests, we have seen an improving trend in new-to-cruise and are already 2/3 of the way back to 2019 levels. And newcomers will be absolutely thrilled once we get them on board. We are delivering a great all-inclusive vacation experience, convenient, great dining and entertainment choices, fantastic itineraries, beautiful and innovative ships and the most amazing onboard teams providing a higher level of personalized service than you can find anywhere on land or sea.

雖然我們的回頭客比例仍然較高，但我們看到新遊輪的趨勢有所改善，並且已經回到 2019 年水平的 2/3。一旦我們讓新來者加入，他們會非常激動。我們提供一流的全包式度假體驗、便捷、一流的餐飲和娛樂選擇、美妙的行程、美麗而創新的船隻以及最令人驚嘆的船上團隊，提供比陸地或海上任何地方更高水平的個性化服務。

Our Net Promoter Scores are telling us, we are delivering a phenomenal product. The issue is we are way too much of a value. We should not be priced at a significant discount to land, which is exactly the case today, anywhere from 25% to 50% based on itineraries. Bottom line, when it comes to generating demand and increasing our revenue profile, we can, should and will do better.

我們的淨推薦值告訴我們，我們正在提供非凡的產品。問題是我們太有價值了。我們不應該以明顯的折扣定價，這正是今天的情況，根據行程從 25% 到 50% 不等。歸根結底，在產生需求和增加收入方面，我們可以、應該並且將會做得更好。

I have begun traveling to meet with each brand president and his or her commercial team to understand their strengths, capabilities and areas for improvement. We are working through their strategies and roadmaps to seize opportunities, all while taking advantage of tactics to quickly capture price and bookings in the interim.

我已經開始與每位品牌總裁及其商業團隊會面，以了解他們的優勢、能力和需要改進的領域。我們正在通過他們的戰略和路線圖來抓住機會，同時利用策略在過渡期間快速獲取價格和預訂。

This cuts across multiple areas of our commercial operations, driving further brand differentiation and clarity around each brand's optimal target segment; ensuring that creative marketing speaks to each brand's target audience; launching more effective digital performance marketing and lead generation approaches; a renewed focus on our trade relationships, another key driver of new-to-cruise demand; to reduce friction points and allow our travel agent partners to more efficiently secure bookings, while continuing to support internal sales as we need all sales channels to perform at a high level to be successful; improving revenue management execution as we continue to adapt to an evolving booking environment; and using data, guests and target audience insights and cross-brand learnings to aid in all of the above.

這跨越了我們商業運營的多個領域，進一步推動了品牌差異化和圍繞每個品牌的最佳目標細分市場的明確性；確保創意營銷與每個品牌的目標受眾對話；推出更有效的數字績效營銷和潛在客戶生成方法；重新關注我們的貿易關係，這是新郵輪需求的另一個關鍵驅動力；減少摩擦點，讓我們的旅行社合作夥伴更有效地確保預訂，同時繼續支持內部銷售，因為我們需要所有銷售渠道都在高水平上取得成功；隨著我們繼續適應不斷變化的預訂環境，改進收入管理執行；並使用數據、客人和目標受眾的洞察力和跨品牌學習來幫助完成上述所有工作。

The engagement and transparency that characterize these brand sessions has been fantastic, and the sense of urgency these leaders have to drive their brands forward is real. And speaking of leaders, we actually have new leadership at the brands and throughout the organization. Since the pause began, 5 of our 9 brands have welcomed new energetic presidents, and these brand presidents have been actively bolstering the bench below them. Additionally, I have made a half dozen changes across corporate leadership in just the last few months. It's worth noting that with the changes I've made to date, 6 of my 12 direct reports are now women. We are actively focused on diversity and inclusion, and we'll continue to invest in talent and talent management.

這些品牌會議的特點是參與度和透明度非常好，這些領導者必須推動他們的品牌向前發展的緊迫感是真實的。說到領導者，我們實際上在品牌和整個組織中都有新的領導層。自暫停以來，我們 9 個品牌中有 5 個迎來了充滿活力的新總裁，而這些品牌總裁一直在積極支持他們下方的替補席。此外，在過去的幾個月裡，我對公司領導層進行了六次變動。值得注意的是，隨著我迄今為止所做的改變，我的 12 名直接下屬中有 6 名現在是女性。我們積極關注多元化和包容性，我們將繼續投資於人才和人才管理。

Now diversity fits alongside our overall sustainability agenda, and we've been making significant progress across the board. There have probably been no greater strides than reducing our carbon intensity. Despite being over 25% larger, our carbon footprint peaked more than a decade ago. And we've set 2030 targets for carbon intensity to be 20% lower than 2019 levels. We will achieve this through technology upgrades currently being rolled out, investing in port and destination projects, even more focus on itinerary optimization and realizing the benefit of our fleet optimization efforts.

現在，多元化符合我們的整體可持續發展議程，我們一直在全面取得重大進展。可能沒有比降低我們的碳強度更大的進步了。儘管增加了 25% 以上，但我們的碳足跡在十多年前達到了頂峰。我們已將 2030 年的碳強度目標設定為比 2019 年的水平低 20%。我們將通過目前正在推出的技術升級、投資港口和目的地項目、更加專注於行程優化和實現我們船隊優化工作的效益來實現這一目標。

While there is no silver bullet to decarbonization for our industry yet, we are committed to working towards a solution. To this end, I'm excited about 3 successful pilots we recently completed using biofuels in existing engines without modification.

雖然我們的行業還沒有脫碳的靈丹妙藥，但我們致力於尋找解決方案。為此，我對我們最近完成的 3 名成功飛行員感到興奮，他們在現有發動機中使用生物燃料而不進行修改。

Turning now to the current tone of business. Pricing for our 2023 book business is currently at considerably higher levels than 2019, adjusting for FCCs. And it is very encouraging that since announcing our relaxation in protocols in mid-August, we have already seen a very meaningful improvement in booking volumes. We are now running considerably higher than 2019 levels. At the same time, we have seen a notable improvement in cancellation trends. We expect these favorable trends to accelerate as the impact of our current and planned efforts will continue to materialize as we move toward our important summer season where we make the bulk of our operating profit.

現在轉向當前的業務基調。我們 2023 年圖書業務的定價目前遠高於 2019 年的水平，並針對 FCC 進行了調整。令人鼓舞的是，自從 8 月中旬宣布放寬協議以來，我們已經看到預訂量有了非常顯著的改善。我們現在的運行水平遠高於 2019 年的水平。與此同時，我們看到取消趨勢顯著改善。我們預計這些有利趨勢將加速，因為我們當前和計劃中的努力的影響將繼續實現，因為我們正邁向重要的夏季，在那裡我們賺取大部分營業利潤。

When it comes to our capital structure, maintaining a strong balance sheet has always been a priority for our company. Pre-pandemic, we have been able to achieve this while investing significantly in our newbuild program, thanks to the substantial cash flow our company generated. Going forward, we are committed to using our cash flow strength to repair the balance sheet over time, and we'll be disciplined and rigorous in making newbuild decisions accordingly.

就我們的資本結構而言，保持強勁的資產負債表一直是我們公司的首要任務。在大流行之前，由於我們公司產生的大量現金流，我們能夠在對新建項目進行大量投資的同時實現這一目標。展望未來，我們致力於利用我們的現金流實力隨著時間的推移修復資產負債表，我們將在做出相應的新建決策時保持紀律和嚴謹。

We have 2 ships on order in 2024 and 1 in 2025. We do not anticipate significant deviation in annual levels for several years. This will significantly reduce our capital commitments and set us on the path to deleveraging. We have seized the opportunity to emerge as a company that is more efficient, more sustainable and more energized for the future. We have a transformed fleet, an unmatched portfolio of well-recognized brands and unparalleled scale in an under-penetrated industry. We are strategically managing our portfolio to optimize our near- and long-term performance.

我們在 2024 年訂購了 2 艘船，在 2025 年訂購了 1 艘。我們預計未來幾年的年度水平不會出現重大偏差。這將大大減少我們的資本承諾，並使我們走上去槓桿化的道路。我們抓住了這個機會，成為一家更高效、更可持續、更有活力的未來公司。我們擁有一支轉型的機隊、無與倫比的知名品牌組合以及在滲透率較低的行業中無與倫比的規模。我們正在戰略性地管理我們的投資組合，以優化我們的近期和長期業績。

We now have a tremendous opportunity to drive revenue growth by delivering measurable pricing improvements, while returning to historically high occupancy levels over time. That opportunity will drive significant free cash flow and accelerate our path to profitability, investment-grade credit ratings and higher ROIC. In the coming months, we'll talk specifically about long-term goals and targets so that we can track progress and maintain accountability along our path.

我們現在有巨大的機會通過提供可衡量的定價改進來推動收入增長，同時隨著時間的推移恢復到歷史上的高入住率水平。這一機會將推動顯著的自由現金流，並加速我們實現盈利、投資級信用評級和更高的投資回報率的道路。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將專門討論長期目標和指標，以便我們可以跟踪進展並在我們的道路上保持問責制。

Our travel agent partners, port and destination communities, suppliers, investors, lenders and, of course, our guests are also important to our business. I plan to speak with more of our stakeholders in the coming months to gather their perspectives as we strive for continuous improvement.

我們的旅行社合作夥伴、港口和目的地社區、供應商、投資者、貸方，當然還有我們的客人，對我們的業務也很重要。我計劃在接下來的幾個月裡與更多的利益相關者交談，以收集他們的觀點，因為我們努力不斷改進。

I would like to end by personally thanking all of our talented and dedicated team members globally, ship and shore, for the heavy lifting it took to get us back to full operations. And now comes the exciting part. We get to take all of the creativity, agility and innovation that the team has built up in response to external factors throughout the pause and resumption of operations, and we now get to use that skill set to proactively drive our business forward and to fulfill our mission of creating happiness by delivering unforgettable and much-needed vacations to our guests.

最後，我要親自感謝我們在全球範圍內所有才華橫溢、敬業的團隊成員，無論是船舶還是岸上，他們為使我們恢復全面運營付出了巨大的努力。現在是激動人心的部分。在暫停和恢復運營期間，我們可以利用團隊為應對外部因素而建立的所有創造力、敏捷性和創新，現在我們可以利用這些技能來積極推動我們的業務向前發展並實現我們的目標。通過為我們的客人提供難忘和急需的假期來創造幸福的使命。

And now I'll turn the call over to David.

現在我將把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a review of guest cruise operations, and then provide booking trends and the current tone of business. Turning to guest cruise operations. Third quarter 2022 represents a significant milestone in the resumption of our guest cruise operations with adjusted EBITDA turning positive for the first time. We were pleased to see that third quarter 2022 revenue increased by nearly 80% compared to second quarter 2022, reflecting a continued sequential quarter-over-quarter improvement.

謝謝你，喬希。我將從今天開始回顧賓客郵輪運營，然後提供預訂趨勢和當前的業務基調。轉向客人郵輪業務。 2022 年第三季度是我們恢復賓客郵輪業務的一個重要里程碑，調整後的 EBITDA 首次轉為正數。我們很高興地看到，與 2022 年第二季度相比，2022 年第三季度的收入增長了近 80%，反映出環比持續改善。

For the third quarter, occupancy was 84%, a 15 percentage point increase from the second quarter. We ended the quarter on a high note with 90% occupancy in the month of August. We were encouraged by the continued very close-in demand we experienced during the third quarter for the third quarter, a trend we had anticipated.

第三季度入住率為84%，比第二季度提高15個百分點。我們以 8 月份 90% 的入住率高調結束了本季度。我們對第三季度第三季度持續非常接近的需求感到鼓舞，這是我們預料到的趨勢。

Revenue per passenger day for the third quarter 2022 decreased from a strong 2019, mainly due to the impact of future cruise credits, or more commonly called FCCs, and currency given the stronger U.S. dollar, along with our large presence in Europe with 4 brands in the U.K. and Continental Europe. Once again, our onboard and other revenue per diems were up significantly in the third quarter 2022 versus third quarter 2019, driven by price increases, greater spending by our guests and the increased effect of the second wallet as more guests are participating in pre-cruise sales of onboard activities.

2022 年第三季度的每位乘客日收入較 2019 年的強勁水平有所下降，這主要是由於未來郵輪積分（或更通常稱為 FCC）的影響，以及美元走強的貨幣，以及我們在歐洲擁有 4 個品牌的龐大影響力英國和歐洲大陸。與 2019 年第三季度相比，我們在 2022 年第三季度的機上和其他每日收入再次顯著增長，這主要是由於價格上漲、我們的客人支出增加以及隨著更多客人參與遊輪前活動而增加第二個錢包的影響船上活動的銷售。

In fact, year-to-date, we have seen over 50% growth in pre-cruise sales of onboard activities on a per passenger cruise day, or PCD, basis as compared to 2019. Our teams have done an excellent job capitalizing on the opportunity in this area.

事實上，今年迄今為止，與 2019 年相比，我們看到每個乘客郵輪日 (PCD) 的郵輪活動前銷售量增長了 50% 以上。我們的團隊在利用這方面的機會。

As I indicated in my comments during our last business update, we expanded our bundled package offerings given their popularity. The new bundled offerings required us to make changes to the accounting allocations. As a result, in the third quarter, more of the revenue was left in ticket and less allocated to onboard, impacting the onboard and other revenue per PCD comparison for the third quarter as compared to the second quarter. Just another reason to add to the list of reasons why the best way to judge our revenue performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics.

正如我在上次業務更新期間的評論中指出的那樣，鑑於捆綁包產品的受歡迎程度，我們擴展了捆綁包產品。新的捆綁產品要求我們更改會計分配。因此，在第三季度，更多的收入留在了機票上，而分配給機上的收入減少了，這影響了第三季度與第二季度相比的每 PCD 的機上收入和其他收入。判斷我們收入表現的最佳方式是參考我們的總郵輪收入指標，這只是添加到原因列表中的另一個原因。

On the cost side, our adjusted cruise costs without fuel in constant currency per available lower berth day, or ALBD as it is more commonly called, the third quarter 2022 was up 14% versus third quarter 2019. We have seen a continuation of the sequential improvement quarter-over-quarter in costs throughout the year and expect to see a continuation of the improvement in the fourth quarter of 2022, with a low double-digit increase compared to 2019, driven in part by higher advertising expense to drive revenue for 2023. We ended the third quarter 2022 with $7.4 billion of liquidity, essentially the same liquidity level as last quarter.

在成本方面，我們調整後的巡航成本（不含燃料）以每個可用的下舖日（或通常稱為 ALBD）的固定貨幣計算，與 2019 年第三季度相比，2022 年第三季度增長了 14%。我們已經看到連續全年成本環比改善，預計 2022 年第四季度將繼續改善，與 2019 年相比，增長率較低，為兩位數，部分原因是廣告費用增加以推動 2023 年收入. 我們以 74 億美元的流動性結束 2022 年第三季度，流動性水平與上一季度基本相同。

In addition, I am pleased to report that total customer deposits, both current and long term, were $4.8 billion at third quarter 2022, approaching the record third quarter of $4.9 billion in 2019. New bookings for the third quarter of 2022 offset most of the historical seasonal decline in customer deposits, which was over $1 billion in 2019.

此外，我很高興地報告，2022 年第三季度的當前和長期客戶存款總額為 48 億美元，接近 2019 年第三季度創紀錄的 49 億美元。2022 年第三季度的新預訂抵消了大部分客戶存款的歷史季節性下降，2019 年超過 10 億美元。

Furthermore, to facilitate investor engagement, I wanted to mention a couple of balance sheet-related items. First, let me clarify our debt-to-capital covenant test. Our current debt-to-capital percentage is in the mid-50s using the calculation methodology in our debt agreements. This methodology allows for the add-back to equity of noncash write-offs and other adjustments, which eliminates the volatility from the pause in guest cruise operations, leaving us well within the debt-to-capital covenant limit set at 75% at the end of the third quarter 2022. Second, we will provide and will continue to do so quarterly a detailed debt schedule and a listing of ships in our fleet by brand on our website, carnivalcorp.com. To find these supplemental schedules, refer to the Financial Information tab within the Investor Relations section of the website.

此外，為了促進投資者參與，我想提幾個與資產負債表相關的項目。首先，讓我澄清一下我們的債務資本契約測試。使用我們債務協議中的計算方法，我們目前的債務資本百分比在 50 年代中期。這種方法允許將非現金沖銷和其他調整加回股權，從而消除了客輪運營暫停造成的波動，使我們完全處於最終設定的 75% 的債務資本契約限制範圍內2022 年第三季度。其次，我們將在我們的網站 carnivalcorp.com 上提供並將繼續每季度提供詳細的債務時間表和按品牌列出的船隊船舶清單。要查找這些補充時間表，請參閱網站投資者關係部分的財務信息選項卡。

Next, let's look at booking trends and the current tone of business. Booking volumes for all future sailings during the third quarter 2022 saw a continuation of the accelerated booking volumes during the second quarter and closed the gap to strong 2019 levels. We did not see any seasonal slowing of booking activity in the third quarter 2022 versus the second quarter 2022 despite the third quarter normally being a slower booking period.

接下來，讓我們看看預訂趨勢和當前的業務基調。 2022 年第三季度所有未來航行的預訂量在第二季度繼續加速預訂量，並縮小了與 2019 年強勁水平的差距。儘管第三季度通常是較慢的預訂期，但與 2022 年第二季度相比，我們沒有看到 2022 年第三季度的預訂活動出現任何季節性放緩。

It is great to see booking volumes for all future sailings considerably higher than 2019 levels since the announcement of the relaxed protocols in mid-August, aligning us towards land-based vacation alternatives. However, we are still managing through the close-in nature of the booking curve caused by the Omicron variant disruption to our important wave season earlier this year and the more restrictive industry protocols in effect until very recently. This left us with more inventory to sell closer in. To optimize in this environment, we have been working to increase near-term occupancy in part by using limited promotions and opaque channels, available only to a select group of people to protect overall price integrity for 2023.

自 8 月中旬宣布放寬協議以來，很高興看到所有未來航行的預訂量大大高於 2019 年的水平，使我們轉向陸上度假的替代方案。但是，我們仍在管理由於 Omicron 變體對今年早些時候我們重要的波浪季節造成的預訂曲線的接近性質以及直到最近才生效的更嚴格的行業協議。這讓我們有更多的庫存可以更近距離地銷售。為了在這種環境下進行優化，我們一直在努力增加近期入住率，部分方法是使用有限的促銷和不透明的渠道，這些渠道只提供給選定的一群人，以保護整體價格的完整性2023 年。

Therefore, while this resulted in the cumulative advanced book position for the fourth quarter below the historical range, we believe we are well situated with our current fourth quarter 2022 book position given current booking volumes that are running significantly ahead of 2019 levels as we capitalize on closer-in booking patterns. Pricing, impacted in part by limited promotions in opaque channels, results in our cumulative book position for fourth quarter 2022 lower compared to 2019 sailings, but primarily due to FCCs.

因此，雖然這導致第四季度的累計提前預訂頭寸低於歷史範圍，但鑑於當前預訂量顯著高於 2019 年的水平，我們認為我們目前的 2022 年第四季度預訂頭寸處於有利位置，因為我們利用更接近的預訂模式。定價部分受到不透明渠道中有限促銷的影響，導致我們 2022 年第四季度的累計預訂頭寸低於 2019 年的航行，但主要是由於 FCC。

With respect to occupancy, fourth quarter occupancy historically has been lower than third quarter given the seasonal dynamic of our business. It was a 9 percentage point drop in 2019. However, this year, that will not be the case. Our continuing build in cabin occupancy will more than offset the seasonal decline, which will result in slightly higher fourth quarter 2022 occupancy compared to the third quarter and represents another step forward in closing the gap to 2019.

在入住率方面，鑑於我們業務的季節性動態，第四季度的入住率歷來低於第三季度。 2019 年下降了 9 個百分點。但是，今年情況並非如此。我們持續增加的客艙入住率將抵消季節性下降，這將導致 2022 年第四季度的入住率略高於第三季度，並代表著在縮小與 2019 年的差距方面又向前邁進了一步。

For the full year 2023, our cumulative advanced book position is slightly above the historical average and at considerably higher prices compared to record 2019 levels normalized for FCCs. While I do expect an impact on 2023 yields from the FCCs, the impact is likely to be less than 1 percentage point for the full year 2023. Additionally, during 2023, we expect improvement in occupancy, with occupancy returning to historical levels in the summer of 2023.

對於 2023 年全年，我們的累計提前賬面頭寸略高於歷史平均水平，並且與 FCC 標準化的 2019 年創紀錄水平相比，價格要高得多。雖然我確實預計 FCC 會對 2023 年的產量產生影響，但對 2023 年全年的影響可能不到 1 個百分點。此外，在 2023 年，我們預計入住率會有所提高，夏季入住率將恢復到歷史水平2023 年。

While our return to guest cruise operations is essentially complete, we are still evaluating a few remaining deployment options as referenced in our business update release. As a result, for 2023, we expect our capacity increase to be somewhere in the range of 3% to 5% compared to 2019. Of course, with nearly 25% of our capacity in 2023 from new ships, we also expect to benefit from the efficiency gains from our fleet optimization efforts that Josh mentioned earlier, helping to mitigate inflation.

雖然我們基本完成了對客輪運營的回歸，但我們仍在評估我們的業務更新版本中提到的一些剩餘部署選項。因此，到 2023 年，我們預計與 2019 年相比，我們的運力增長將在 3% 到 5% 之間。當然，由於 2023 年我們近 25% 的運力來自新船，我們也希望受益於Josh 之前提到的我們的車隊優化工作提高了效率，有助於緩解通貨膨脹。

In summary, looking forward to 2023, we have a strong book of business at considerably higher prices. Prices are higher in all 4 quarters of 2023. Onboard revenue per diems are up significantly in 2022, and this puts us on track for a record year in 2023 for onboard revenue. All of this clearly sets the stage positively for 2023, with Josh and I working together with all of the brand teams to drive revenue growth over time.

總而言之，展望 2023 年，我們擁有一份強勁的業務賬簿，而且價格要高得多。 2023 年所有 4 個季度的價格都在上漲。2022 年的船上每日津貼收入顯著增長，這使我們有望在 2023 年實現船上收入創紀錄的一年。所有這一切顯然為 2023 年奠定了積極的基礎，喬希和我與所有品牌團隊合作，隨著時間的推移推動收入增長。

And now operator, let's open up the call for questions.

現在接線員，讓我們打開問題的電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Steve Wieczynski 和 Stifel。

Josh, welcome to your first call as CEO. I guess my question, we seem to be hearing a much different tone from some of your peers in terms of how the EBITDA or cash flow recovery is playing out versus what you guys just reported in the third quarter and your outlook for the fourth quarter. So I guess, is it fair to assume that your Carnival Princess, your domestic brands, are doing very, very well right now, but it's your non-U.S. brands that are struggling at this point, and that's the issue right now versus your peers? And then Josh, does that make you think a little bit differently about your portfolio ships, meaning do you still need 9 brands at this point?

喬希，歡迎您作為 CEO 首次致電。我想我的問題是，就 EBITDA 或現金流恢復的表現與你們剛剛在第三季度報告的情況以及對第四季度的展望而言，我們似乎從一些同行那裡聽到了截然不同的語氣。所以我想，假設你的嘉年華公主，你的國產品牌現在做得非常非常好，這是公平的嗎，但在這一點上掙扎的是你的非美國品牌，這就是現在與你的同行相比的問題?然後 Josh，這是否讓您對您的投資組合船舶有一點不同的看法，這意味著您目前還需要 9 個品牌嗎？

Steve, thanks for the welcome. So I think you asked a couple of things. Let me see if I can hit them all. So first of all, I can't speak to our peers. I won't speak to our peers. I'll speak to us. The momentum is continuing, which is really promising, as you heard from my prepared remarks, as well as David's. Particularly over the last 6 weeks, things have ramped up incredibly strong, and the book of business is good.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的歡迎。所以我想你問了幾件事。讓我看看我能不能把他們都打中。所以首先，我不能和我們的同齡人說話。我不會和我們的同齡人說話。我會和我們談談。正如您從我準備好的發言和大衛的發言中聽到的那樣，這種勢頭仍在繼續，這確實很有希望。特別是在過去的 6 周里，事情發展得非常強勁，而且生意很好。

With respect to how we're looking at the brands, obviously, Carnival and the Caribbean has done a great job. They are America's cruise line, and it showed through loud and clear as we've been going through this past year. But I wouldn't look at this as a North American versus European question. All of our brands are in varying points with respect to their pricing and their occupancy and how those play out, and they're responding to their target audience in their source markets and trying to optimize as best as they can. As you heard in my prepared remarks, and I think what we've talked about already before, is we can do better.

關於我們如何看待品牌，顯然，嘉年華和加勒比海做得很好。它們是美國的郵輪公司，正如我們過去一年所經歷的那樣，它大聲而清晰地顯示出來。但我不會將此視為北美與歐洲的問題。我們所有的品牌在定價和入住率以及如何發揮作用方面都處於不同的階段，他們正在回應他們在源市場中的目標受眾，並儘可能地進行優化。正如你在我準備好的發言中所聽到的，我認為我們之前已經討論過的是，我們可以做得更好。

I have high expectations for all of our brands to make significant improvement on the revenue side. And some of it's blocking and tackling. Some of it is really pushing the envelope in certain areas. And I actually feel pretty confident. So far, I've managed to hit 3 brands in that type of setting. It's been Costa, Holland America and Princess. And the activities that are underway are significant. And I really -- I don't think it's appropriate in this forum to get into any specifics, but we are tracking hundreds of things, some big, some small, that are going to ultimately lead to significant improvement.

我對我們所有的品牌都寄予厚望，希望能在收入方面取得重大進展。其中一些是阻止和解決問題。其中一些確實在某些領域推動了信封。而且我真的很自信。到目前為止，我已經設法在這種類型的環境中擊中了 3 個品牌。是哥斯達黎加、荷蘭美國和公主。正在進行的活動意義重大。而且我真的- 我認為在這個論壇上討論任何細節都不合適，但我們正在跟踪數百件事情，有些大，有些小，最終將導致顯著改進。

Okay. Got you. And the second question would be around 2023. And look, I understand you guys aren't going to give guidance for '23 at this point. But in the past, we've heard previous management at Carnival kind of talk about it at a very high level, there was a good chance that 2023 EBITDA -- there was a chance to exceed 2019 EBITDA. So Josh, you're now at the helm and how do you view that probability from what you can see today? Is this something that's still possible? Or are you just saying, hey, look, it's too early to make that call?

好的。得到你。第二個問題是在 2023 年左右。聽著，我知道你們現在不會為 23 年提供指導。但在過去，我們聽到嘉年華的前任管理層在非常高的水平上談論它，2023 年 EBITDA 很有可能——很有可能超過 2019 年的 EBITDA。所以喬希，你現在掌舵了，你如何看待你今天所看到的這種可能性？這還有可能嗎？或者你只是說，嘿，看，現在打電話還為時過早？

Well, we're certainly anticipating strong EBITDA in 2023. We're not providing guidance, obviously. So I don't want to get ahead of where we are in that process. Fuel and currency are obviously a big swing, and we'll see how that plays out in 2023. I have no idea, but we're working hard to generate as much as we can.

好吧，我們當然預計 2023 年的 EBITDA 強勁。顯然，我們沒有提供指導。所以我不想超越我們在這個過程中的位置。燃料和貨幣顯然是一個很大的波動，我們將在 2023 年看到它如何發揮作用。我不知道，但我們正在努力盡可能多地產生。

Next question is from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 James Hardiman。

Josh, welcome aboard. So obviously, there's a lot of discussion about the booking -- I don't know if surge is the right word, that you've seen since the relaxation of some of the COVID restrictions. I guess, I'm curious, what, if any, impact that is having on pricing, particularly in the context of we have this per diem decline. I think it's about 4% versus 2019 for the third quarter. But then as we look to next year, the pricing seems like it's up meaningfully. And so I'm just trying to connect those 2 dots and maybe sort of the missing piece is a significant improvement coming off of these restriction relaxations. But maybe paint that picture for us.

喬希，歡迎登機。所以很明顯，關於預訂有很多討論——我不知道激增是否是正確的詞，自從放寬一些 COVID 限制以來你已經看到了。我想，我很好奇，如果有的話，這對定價有什麼影響，特別是在我們每天都有這種下降的背景下。我認為第三季度與 2019 年相比約為 4%。但是當我們展望明年時，定價似乎有意義地上漲了。所以我只是想把這兩個點聯繫起來，也許缺失的部分是這些限制放鬆帶來的重大改進。但也許為我們畫那幅畫。

So yes, the volumes have been incredibly encouraging. I can't speak specifically to price over the last few weeks. But I can tell you that the pricing of our business on the books for 2023 overall is actually higher today than it was earlier in the year. As far as what's driving that, I think there's a lot of things that are driving that. I do think that the fact that we are now able to be more aligned to land-based alternatives reduces a lot of friction and opens up more demand to us and our brands.

所以，是的，數量令人難以置信地令人鼓舞。我無法具體談論過去幾週的價格。但我可以告訴你，我們在 2023 年的整體業務定價實際上比今年早些時候要高。至於是什麼推動了這一點，我認為有很多因素在推動這一點。我確實認為，我們現在能夠更加適應陸上替代品這一事實減少了很多摩擦，並為我們和我們的品牌帶來了更多需求。

You heard us mention advertising. We had a different advertising approach versus what our norm was pre-pandemic, and we really -- we scaled way back. And in the process of doing that, we were doing it in the context of the pause and how we wanted to prioritize our resources and focus in on those loyal guests and more efficient channels. But as we've been ramping back up to really full strength with our advertising strategy, it's starting to pay dividends. And in addition to that, we have, as you heard, we have more and more people sailing again and going back and telling folks that we are a great product, and all of that is helping. So I can't give you -- I wish I could be scientific and tell you all the drivers and how they impact the pricing, but I'd be lying. I don't think anybody can do that. So we'll just have to see what's working and see what's not and leverage what we can.

你聽說我們提到了廣告。與大流行前的標準相比，我們採用了不同的廣告方式，而且我們確實 - 我們縮減了規模。在這樣做的過程中，我們是在暫停的背景下進行的，以及我們希望如何優先考慮我們的資源並專注於那些忠誠的客人和更有效的渠道。但是，隨著我們的廣告策略已經恢復到真正的全部實力，它開始產生紅利。除此之外，正如你所聽到的，我們有越來越多的人再次航行並返回並告訴人們我們是一個很棒的產品，所有這些都在幫助。所以我不能告訴你——我希望我能科學地告訴你所有的驅動因素以及它們如何影響定價，但我會撒謊。我認為沒有人能做到這一點。所以我們只需要看看什麼是有效的，看看什麼是無效的，並利用我們能做的。

And also, let me just add. When you're looking at the fourth quarter, clearly, we were in a situation where our wave season was impacted. And remember, we didn't start the increase in advertising expense until the third quarter. So that, too, impacted the revenue per diems that you mentioned in the third quarter. But as Josh talked about, we are addressing that clearly as we move forward.

另外，讓我補充一下。當你看第四節時，很明顯，我們的波浪賽季受到了影響。請記住，我們直到第三季度才開始增加廣告費用。因此，這也影響了您在第三季度提到的每日津貼收入。但正如 Josh 所說，隨著我們的前進，我們正在清楚地解決這個問題。

Got it. And then my second question, maybe a bit -- well, it's an open-ended question. But Josh, since you've been at the helm, I don't know if you've had a chance to think through -- or maybe you could help us think through some of the challenges and opportunities facing the company. I guess what I'm trying to figure out is how much of that is sort of a cruise industry set of challenges and opportunities versus Carnival-specific. And take us wherever you want to take it, whether it's the mix of your customers, mix of geography, strength or weaknesses of your specific brands, but I'm curious how you sort of slice and dice those, too.

知道了。然後是我的第二個問題，可能有點——嗯，這是一個開放式問題。但是喬希，因為你一直在掌舵，我不知道你是否有機會思考——或者也許你可以幫助我們思考公司面臨的一些挑戰和機遇。我想我想弄清楚其中有多少是郵輪行業的挑戰和機遇，而不是狂歡節特有的。把我們帶到你想去的任何地方，無論是你的客戶組合、地理組合、特定品牌的優勢或弱點，但我也很好奇你是如何對這些進行切片和切塊的。

Well, overall, I'd say, I think I can say on behalf of the industry, all of us are way too good of a value when it comes to stacking us up versus non-cruise alternatives. And so I think the more we can break through as an industry with how good of a product we are, how inclusive it can be, that will serve dividends. That's why I'm very committed to our travel agent partners because they are critical for us in that success in being able to communicate that story and convince first timers who don't know cruising, could be daunting, could be confusing, and help them get on board because once we get them, they want to come back.

好吧，總的來說，我想說，我想我可以代表整個行業說，在將我們與非巡航替代品相提並論時，我們所有人的價值都太大了。所以我認為，作為一個行業，我們越能憑藉我們的產品有多好、它的包容性有多強，這將帶來紅利。這就是為什麼我非常致力於我們的旅行社合作夥伴，因為他們對於我們成功地傳達這個故事並說服那些不知道巡航、可能會令人生畏、可能會感到困惑並幫助他們的初學者來說至關重要加入，因為一旦我們得到他們，他們就想回來。

I don't know, and so I can't speak to our peers and what they do and how they do it behind closed doors. I do think the things that we're seeing on the commercial side with all of our brands, and it varies brand-by-brand, but I think -- all I can tell you is that specific to our corporation, and I think they're going to really pay dividends for us in a big way.

我不知道，所以我無法與我們的同齡人談論他們的工作以及他們如何在閉門造車。我確實認為我們在所有品牌的商業方面看到的東西，它因品牌而異，但我認為——我能告訴你的是我們公司特有的，我認為他們'將真正為我們帶來巨大的回報。

Next question from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

So just kind of looking at the language you've used over the years to describe forward bookings, when you say considerably higher, that's more upbeat language than you typically use. It seems like considerably higher is probably more than 5%, but should we think of it as being more than 10% or would that be a different adjective for that range?

所以只要看看你多年來用來描述遠期預訂的語言，當你說得更高時，那是比你通常使用的更樂觀的語言。似乎相當高可能超過 5%，但我們應該將其視為超過 10% 還是該範圍的不同形容詞？

This is Josh. I used to have a dictionary that David provided for everybody when we were doing these preparations back when I was a treasurer. I think, it's safe to say this is mid-single digits. And so I guess I can -- there's your answer.

這是喬什。當我還是一名財務主管時，我曾經有一本大衛在我們做這些準備工作時提供給每個人的字典。我認為，可以肯定地說這是中個位數。所以我想我可以——這就是你的答案。

Great. No, that's very helpful. And then also on the nonfuel expense, it seems like -- and we're still digesting the release, but it seems like your guidance for second half nonfuel expense is quite a bit higher than previous. Is it just the advertising that you've mentioned? Are there other things? And I sort of have a follow-up about the advertising, but maybe just to even frame what's happening with the nonfuel expense.

偉大的。不，這很有幫助。然後在非燃料費用方面，似乎 - 我們仍在消化發布，但您對下半年非燃料費用的指導似乎比以前高很多。只是你提到的廣告嗎？還有其他事情嗎？我有點跟進廣告，但也許只是為了描述非燃料費用的情況。

Sure. So if you take what we said about all the quarters and you actually weight average it with the ALBDs per quarter, you get something in the mid- to high-double digits. And we had said mid-double digits before. So it is a tad higher as a result of potentially more advertising expense than we had previously anticipated. But it's not a significant change on a full year basis from what we said before. Just maybe a point or something like that from the previous guidance.

當然。因此，如果您採用我們對所有季度的說法，並且您實際上對每個季度的 ALBD 進行加權平均，您會得到中高兩位數的結果。我們之前說過中位數。因此，由於廣告費用可能比我們之前預期的要高，所以它有點高。但這與我們之前所說的相比，在全年的基礎上並沒有顯著變化。可能只是之前指導中的一點或類似的東西。

Okay. And then just say on the advertising piece, it's just -- you've talked about being ahead in price and volume in '23, and then you talked about this kind of sequentially how things are ramping up. So I guess, just thinking about -- so it seems like demand is growing naturally on its own. So I guess, why the decision to do more advertising? And I don't know if that's targeted in certain -- I don't know if it's a European demand issue, or just kind of help us think about when you're sort of naturally seeing such strong volume and price on how to think about that.

好的。然後只是在廣告片上說，它只是 - 你已經談到在 23 年的價格和數量上領先，然後你談到這種事情是如何按順序增長的。所以我想，只是想想 - 所以看起來需求自然而然地增長了。所以我猜，為什麼決定做更多的廣告？而且我不知道這是否是針對某些特定的-我不知道這是否是歐洲需求問題，或者只是幫助我們思考何時您自然會看到如此強勁的成交量和價格如何思考關於那個。

Yes. So a couple of things. One is we have volume, but we want to get volume plus price and fill the ships at good pricing. So we just -- we need to be doing more to accomplish that. It's not a European versus American phenomenon. And remember, advertising is not just for the moment and filling the ship in the next quarter. It's setting the groundwork for awareness consideration, and ultimately, making that booking decision. And we have to be thinking about this in the context of the fact that we're taking bookings for the next 2.5 years, not just the next quarter. So we need to be real thoughtful. And the point about new-to-cruise, that's where it makes a huge amount of inroads, particularly as we're building toward wave.

是的。所以有幾件事。一是我們有數量，但我們希望獲得數量加上價格，並以合理的價格填滿船隻。所以我們只是 - 我們需要做更多的事情來實現這一目標。這不是歐洲與美國的現象。請記住，廣告不僅僅是暫時的，而是在下個季度填滿船。它為意識考慮奠定了基礎，並最終做出了預訂決定。我們必須考慮到這一點，因為我們正在接受未來 2.5 年的預訂，而不僅僅是下一季度。所以我們需要真正的深思熟慮。關於新巡航的要點，這就是它取得巨大進展的地方，特別是當我們正在朝著波浪方向發展時。

And all this -- our goal is to be setting ourselves up really well for a very successful wave, and it has been years since we've had that. And so I think there's a lot of excitement in the organization actually because our game plans are out and we know what we want to achieve.

而這一切——我們的目標是為一個非常成功的浪潮做好準備，而我們已經有好幾年沒有做到這一點了。所以我認為組織中實際上有很多興奮，因為我們的遊戲計劃已經完成，我們知道我們想要實現什麼。

Okay. That's helpful. So it sounds like the advertising, it's up versus what you originally thought but not higher than what you would typically do sort of pre-pandemic. Is that the right way to think about it?

好的。這很有幫助。因此，這聽起來像是廣告，它與您最初的想法有所不同，但並不高於您在大流行前通常會做的事情。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

No, I wouldn't say that yet, actually. We're back up to those levels. We have more capacity to sell. So naturally, that should -- we'll always try to find efficiencies. But there's a lot of pluses and minuses in the equation, and we're working through our 2023 plan with all of our brands now. So have more insight about how exactly that's going to shape up in a few months.

不，實際上我還不會這麼說。我們回到了這些水平。我們有更多的銷售能力。所以很自然，這應該——我們總是會努力尋找效率。但是這個等式有很多優點和缺點，我們現在正在與我們所有的品牌一起完成我們的 2023 年計劃。因此，請更深入地了解幾個月後這將如何形成。

But it's fair to say that if you look at the 4 quarters, remember, we had talked about -- we weren't doing much advertising in the first half of the year. And we did increase it in the back half. And I think I had said once before that we did expect advertising overall to be higher than it was in 2019. So your -- what you'll see is a big ramp-up in the back half of this year versus 2019, even higher than the normal level that we would see in the fourth quarter in anticipation of wave season.

但公平地說，如果你看一下這 4 個季度，請記住，我們已經討論過——我們在上半年沒有做太多廣告。我們確實在後半部分增加了它。而且我想我之前曾說過，我們確實預計整體廣告將高於 2019 年。所以你 - 你會看到今年下半年與 2019 年相比大幅增長，甚至更高高於我們在第四季度預期的波浪季節看到的正常水平。

Our next question from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

我們來自晨星的 Jaime Katz 的下一個問題。

I'm hoping you guys can help us think through what the magnitude of FCCs left to work through might be and when you think we may be sort of through digesting those.

我希望你們能幫助我們思考剩下的 FCC 的規模可能是多少，以及何時你認為我們可能會通過消化這些。

So I think I had indicated in my prepared remarks that we did expect to see FCCs impact yields in 2023, but it would be less than 1%. In 2022, we had seen a couple of points of an impact given our forecast and the expectation. And I think you'll see that it's the FCC sweeteners that you're talking about. And I think you'll see that end with 2023.

因此，我想我在準備好的講話中已經表明，我們確實預計 FCC 會在 2023 年影響產量，但不會超過 1%。鑑於我們的預測和預期，我們在 2022 年看到了幾個影響點。我想你會看到你在談論的是 FCC 甜味劑。我認為你會在 2023 年看到這一點。

Excellent. And then from a capital spending perspective, I think there were some shifts in expenses in the table in the press release. Is there anything noteworthy, worth mentioning on different spending programs that have shifted or anything like that?

出色的。然後從資本支出的角度來看，我認為新聞稿中表格中的費用發生了一些變化。有沒有什麼值得注意的，值得一提的是不同的支出計劃已經發生變化或類似的事情？

Yes. Well, just keep in mind that a lot of the CapEx, depending on which particular item you're looking at, a lot of the CapEx is in foreign currency. And with the changes in foreign currency, particularly the newbuilds, you will see a reduction in the newbuild CapEx. The non-newbuild CapEx, we've been looking at that very carefully and making sure that we optimize those numbers. So you did see a decline in 2022 from the previous guidance. And we are relooking at 2023. As Josh had said, we're going to be going through with all the operating companies, their plans for 2023. So at this point in time, we haven't made any changes, but we will continue to look at that and talk to them about optimizing CapEx for 2023.

是的。好吧，請記住，根據您正在查看的特定項目，很多資本支出是外幣。隨著外幣的變化，特別是新造船，您會看到新造船資本支出減少。非新建資本支出，我們一直在非常仔細地研究並確保我們優化這些數字。因此，您確實看到 2022 年與之前的指導相比有所下降。我們正在重新審視 2023 年。正如喬希所說，我們將與所有運營公司一起完成他們 2023 年的計劃。所以在這個時間點上，我們沒有做出任何改變，但我們會繼續看看這個並與他們討論如何優化 2023 年的資本支出。

Next question from the line of Ben Chaiken with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ben Chaiken。

Sorry if I missed it. I think that FY '23, the language surrounding FY '23 bookings changed slightly. Maybe I'm mistaken. I guess, simplistically, can you help us with the booked position in '23 and maybe how that's changed since the last update relative to '19? It sounds -- I mean, it sounded like bookings have accelerated since the vaccine protocol change, but just a little unclear on the total booked position for '23 relative to the last update.

對不起，如果我錯過了。我認為 23 財年，圍繞 23 財年預訂的語言略有變化。也許我錯了。我想，簡單地說，你能幫我們解決 23 年的預訂位置嗎？也許自上次相對於 19 年的更新以來，情況發生了怎樣的變化？聽起來——我的意思是，自從疫苗方案改變以來，預訂量似乎有所增加，但相對於上次更新，23 年的總預訂位置有點不清楚。

Sure. So keep in mind that what we're talking about here in terms of an acceleration of the book position or the bookings, that occurred in mid-August with the relaxed protocols. And the booking patterns, as we indicated, accelerated. In fact, our North American brands were up 30% over 2019 in the last few weeks. So the booking patterns have been tremendous. But the book position, previously we had said was at the higher end of the historical range, and now we're saying it's at the average.

當然。所以請記住，我們在這裡談論的是書籍位置或預訂量的加速，這發生在 8 月中旬的寬鬆協議下。正如我們所指出的，預訂模式加速了。事實上，過去幾週，我們的北美品牌比 2019 年增長了 30%。所以預訂模式是巨大的。但之前我們所說的賬面位置處於歷史範圍的高端，現在我們說它處於平均水平。

Earlier in the quarter, we were slightly below 2019 levels but closing the gap, and now we have exceeded 2019 levels. So we feel very good about the overall book position, particularly with relaxed protocols and now exceeding 2019 levels. But from a pricing perspective, we are better priced than we were earlier in the year, and we feel very good about that as well.

本季度早些時候，我們略低於 2019 年的水平，但縮小了差距，現在我們已經超過了 2019 年的水平。因此，我們對圖書的整體狀況感覺非常好，特別是在協議寬鬆且現在超過 2019 年水平的情況下。但從定價的角度來看，我們的定價比今年早些時候更好，我們對此也感覺很好。

Okay. That's helpful. And then is that -- are you able to break up -- so it sounds like a little bit of a deceleration in bookings for '23 position. Is there -- I know, a few times -- is there a difference between European and non-European itineraries in terms of driving that movement?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就是——你能分手嗎——所以這聽起來像是'23位置的預訂有點減速。有沒有 - 我知道，幾次 - 歐洲和非歐洲行程在推動這一運動方面是否存在差異？

Yes. I wouldn't have called it a deceleration during that period. Remember that for most of the quarter, we still had the protocols in effect. And as a result of that, while we were getting bookings, the booking levels were slightly below 2019 and level for 2023. But since the relaxation of the protocols, we have seen things accelerate considerably.

是的。在那段時間裡，我不會稱之為減速。請記住，在本季度的大部分時間裡，我們的協議仍然有效。因此，在我們獲得預訂的同時，預訂水平略低於 2019 年和 2023 年的水平。但自從協議放寬以來，我們看到事情的發展速度大大加快。

The other thing to keep in mind is that we have seen a much closer-in booking curve than we had previously seen historically. And so that, too, has probably impacted 2023 as well. But with the relaxed protocols and putting us more in line, with the testing requirements gone, we're in great shape. And as I said before, I mean, we're now, in the last few weeks since the relaxation of the protocols, our North American brands were up 30% over 2019 levels, and we feel great about that. So we're looking forward to 2023.

要記住的另一件事是，我們看到的預訂曲線比我們以前在歷史上看到的要近得多。因此，這也可能影響了 2023 年。但是隨著協議的放寬和讓我們更加符合要求，隨著測試要求的消失，我們的狀態很好。正如我之前所說，我的意思是，在放寬協議後的最後幾週，我們的北美品牌比 2019 年的水平增長了 30%，我們對此感覺很好。因此，我們期待 2023 年。

And our European brands are doing well, too. They're just operating in a closer-in booking window. So they have seen a significant spike as well. It's just more for a closer-in period. But again, same thing, mid-August, and it took off.

我們的歐洲品牌也做得很好。他們只是在更近的預訂窗口中運營。因此，他們也看到了顯著的飆升。這只是一個更接近的時期。但是，同樣的事情，八月中旬，它起飛了。

Okay. And then just one more on the costs. It sounds like we're in this low double-digit range versus '19 exiting the year. Can you help us, just directionally, maybe how much of that is core underlying costs and how much of that are maybe like fleet ramp-up, COVID protocol related, et cetera? Just ballpark splits.

好的。然後再談成本。聽起來我們處於這個低兩位數的範圍內，而不是 19 年退出的一年。你能幫助我們嗎，只是方向性的，也許其中有多少是核心基礎成本，有多少可能是車隊增加、COVID 協議相關等？只是球場分裂。

So for the fourth quarter -- well, first of all, let me just say that the fourth quarter, I don't think is a great indication of looking forward [data]. I think we can do better, and we're going to be having those conversations with our brands. But embedded in the fourth quarter, there's probably a little bit of start-up costs, but most of this is ships and most of that was spent before the fourth quarter. But there are protocol costs. From a -- I had said earlier in the year, we were probably spending tens of millions of dollars a month on protocol costs. By the time you get to the fourth quarter, when you're looking at adjusted cruise costs without fuel, you're probably talking about maybe $1 to $1.50 of costs in there that are included in the forecast. So there is something, which is affecting that double digit -- low double-digit projection. But it is, like I said, maybe $1 or $1.50. And I'm not even sure we're going to spend that much, but that's what the brands have included. Given that forecast, we're prepared at about the same time as the relaxation of the protocol.

所以對於第四季度——嗯，首先，讓我說第四季度，我不認為這是一個很好的展望[數據]的跡象。我認為我們可以做得更好，我們將與我們的品牌進行這些對話。但是嵌入到第四季度，可能會有一點啟動成本，但其中大部分是船舶，其中大部分是在第四季度之前花費的。但是有協議成本。從--我在今年早些時候說過，我們可能每月在協議成本上花費數千萬美元。到第四季度時，當您查看不含燃料的調整後巡航成本時，您可能會談論預測中包含的 1 到 1.50 美元的成本。所以有些東西正在影響兩位數——低兩位數的投影。但就像我說的，可能是 1 美元或 1.50 美元。我什至不確定我們會花那麼多錢，但這就是品牌所包含的。鑑於這一預測，我們在放鬆協議的同時做好了準備。

Not to belabor the point, but why just call up? Why is 4Q not -- I think you said 4Q is not a good kind of like period to use.

不是要強調這一點，但為什麼只是打電話呢？為什麼 4Q 不是——我想你說 4Q 不是一個很好的使用期。

Yes. I think when you look at all the different things over a full year period. Keep in mind, just as an example, I'll give you one example. So I've always said that looking at cost by quarter are not a good reflection of the year because things vary by quarter. And I just indicated, I think it was Robin who was asking the question about advertising, and I said that advertising was up considerably in the fourth quarter versus 2019. So if you just take that item alone, that would have had an impact on your double-digit number. And so no one quarter is ever going to be a good indication of the full year because of the seasonality of the spending by quarter.

是的。我認為當您查看一整年的所有不同事物時。請記住，作為一個例子，我會給你一個例子。所以我一直說，按季度查看成本並不能很好地反映一年，因為情況因季度而異。我剛剛指出，我認為是 Robin 提出了關於廣告的問題，我說與 2019 年相比，第四季度的廣告大幅增長。所以，如果你只看那個項目，那會對你的兩位數。因此，由於季度支出的季節性，沒有一個季度能夠很好地反映全年。

Our next question from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Katz 與 Jefferies 的對話。

I wanted to just get your thoughts on pricing and the value proposition strategy in the context that we look at other areas of hospitality that are driving price, and I recognize your model is different from that. But what are you doing? What can you do? What thoughts do you have about the ability to sort of drive price within the context of the value proposition now?

我想在我們研究推動價格的其他酒店領域的背景下，了解您對定價和價值主張策略的看法，我認識到您的模型與此不同。但是你在做什麼？你能做什麼？對於現在在價值主張的背景下推動價格的能力，您有什麼想法？

So I mean, it's a good question. There's a lot of answers, right? I mean, it does start with being able to clearly communicate who the brand is. And then from a marketing perspective, are they targeting the right folks? Are they speaking to them the right way? Do they have the right digital performance marketing agenda that they can generate leads that are effective and turn them into conversion? I mean, it's just -- it's that whole life cycle, right?

所以我的意思是，這是一個很好的問題。有很多答案，對吧？我的意思是，它確實始於能夠清楚地傳達品牌是誰。然後從營銷的角度來看，他們是否針對正確的人？他們以正確的方式與他們交談嗎？他們是否有正確的數字績效營銷議程，可以產生有效的潛在客戶並將其轉化為轉化？我的意思是，這只是——這是整個生命週期，對吧？

And so the discussions that we have been having with our commercial teams at the various brands so far has really been focused on all of it. And it's revenue management, right? It's how we choose to do our pricing curves, how we introduce promotions at the right time, how we use the opaque channels. Yes, I mean, it's literally -- it's the whole way we do things in the commercial space. And there are opportunities for us. I can't speak to people outside our company. For us, we have a good amount of opportunity to drive significant improvement in our revenue profile by making improvements in varying aspects of that whole cycle.

因此，到目前為止，我們與各個品牌的商業團隊進行的討論實際上都集中在這一切上。這是收入管理，對吧？這就是我們如何選擇做我們的定價曲線，我們如何在正確的時間推出促銷活動，我們如何使用不透明的渠道。是的，我的意思是，從字面上看——這是我們在商業領域做事的全部方式。我們有機會。我不能和我們公司以外的人說話。對我們來說，我們有很多機會通過在整個週期的各個方面進行改進來推動收入狀況的顯著改善。

I appreciate that. And can I -- just on another matter, I just want to be clear about the possibility of any sort of further capital raising out there. Are those categorically off the table? Are those largely off the table? Or are they maybes at this point?

我很感激。我可以 - 只是在另一件事上，我只是想明確任何形式的進一步融資的可能性。那些絕對不在桌面上嗎？那些基本上不在討論範圍內嗎？或者他們現在可能是？

So from a capital perspective, we are always opportunistic. We did indicate back, I think it was in March, that we were looking to refinance the $3 billion of maturities in 2023. We've worked through $2.5 billion of that. But we always look at -- we remain opportunistic. We look at the capital market. We try to look longer term and to see what needs we have and what we should do rather than just looking at next quarter or the next 6 months. And we will evaluate opportunities, and we'll look at all options as we always do to make sure that we are in a good, solid position. So it's the best answer I can give at this point in time.

所以從資本的角度來看，我們總是投機取巧。我們確實表示，我認為是在 3 月份，我們正在尋求為 2023 年到期的 30 億美元再融資。我們已經完成了其中的 25 億美元。但我們總是看——我們仍然投機取巧。我們看資本市場。我們嘗試著眼長遠，看看我們有什麼需求和我們應該做什麼，而不是僅僅著眼於下個季度或未來 6 個月。我們將評估機會，我們會像往常一樣審視所有選擇，以確保我們處於良好、穩固的位置。所以這是我目前能給出的最佳答案。

Next question from the line of Ali Naqvi with HSBC.

Ali Naqvi 與匯豐銀行的下一個問題。

Just on maybe some of your comments on the Q4 trends. Could you give us any sort of commentary on a like-for-like basis regarding volumes? And does any of your commentaries suggest that there's any consumer weakness demand or is it mainly due to, as you said, the future cruise credits and closer-in bookings?

只是關於您對第四季度趨勢的一些評論。你能給我們關於數量的同類評論嗎？您的任何評論是否表明消費者需求疲軟，或者正如您所說，這主要是由於未來的郵輪積分和更近的預訂？

So I'm not sure I fully understood your question, but you were talking about Q4. And as far as Q4 is concerned, one of the things that I had indicated was we -- in my prepared remarks, we did expect to see a slightly increased occupancy. Now keep in mind, if I went back to 2019, we saw a 9 percentage point drop in occupancy from third quarter to fourth, which is pretty typical because of the third quarter is the seasonally strong summer season for the Northern Hemisphere, and we have all those kids on board.

所以我不確定我是否完全理解你的問題，但你說的是第四季度。就第四季度而言，我指出的一件事是我們——在我準備好的評論中，我們確實預計入住率會略有增加。現在請記住，如果我回到 2019 年，我們看到從第三季度到第四季度的入住率下降了 9 個百分點，這是非常典型的，因為第三季度是北半球季節性旺盛的夏季，我們有船上的所有孩子。

So a drop in occupancy is pretty normal. But we aren't expecting this year a drop in occupancy in the fourth quarter. We're expecting an increase in occupancy, and that's a result of the cabin occupancy build that we are expecting. So we're moving in the right direction. And I think we're in good shape for the fourth quarter. Hopefully, that answers your question. If not...

所以入住率下降是很正常的。但我們預計今年第四季度的入住率不會下降。我們預計入住率會增加，這是我們預期的客艙入住率增加的結果。所以我們正朝著正確的方向前進。我認為我們在第四季度的狀態很好。希望這能回答你的問題。如果不...

Yes, I think maybe there's a couple of other points to put out there as well. We started in a hole because we didn't have the benefit of our Q4 having gone through a successful wave in the beginning of the year. All the things that you heard us talking about with respect to the advertising spend and the change in tactics we had at the beginning of the year, the protocol changes, all those things left us where we were. The great news is our brands have been doing a good job of adapting to a closer-in booking window.

是的，我認為也許還有其他幾點需要說明。我們一開始就陷入了困境，因為我們沒有從年初的第四季度經歷成功的浪潮中受益。你聽到我們談論的所有關於廣告支出的事情，我們在年初的策略變化，協議的變化，所有這些事情都讓我們保持原狀。好消息是我們的品牌在適應更近的預訂窗口方面做得很好。

And so as you probably heard by now because we've said it a couple of times, the volume that we are getting in bookings is certainly not just for 2023. It is also closer in and benefiting Q4 as well. And the brands are doing a good job of optimizing the demand we're seeing on a shorter-term basis.

正如您現在可能已經聽說過的那樣，因為我們已經說過幾次了，我們獲得的預訂量肯定不僅僅是 2023 年的。它也更接近並受益於第四季度。這些品牌在優化我們在短期內看到的需求方面做得很好。

Got it. And maybe just with the benefit of your experience, what is the sort of impact to the wave season after you had sort of hurricane and the impact from that, please?

知道了。也許只是根據您的經驗，在您遇到颶風之後對海浪季節的影響是什麼，以及由此產生的影響，好嗎？

The impact of the hurricane?

颶風的影響？

On wave season.

在波浪季節。

Well, so first of all, as we said in the press release, on behalf of Carnival Corporation, I would like to extend our deepest concern for those affected by both Hurricane Ian and Fiona, and our thoughts and prayers are with anybody who's been impacted.

好吧，首先，正如我們在新聞稿中所說，我代表嘉年華公司向受颶風伊恩和菲奧娜影響的人們表示最深切的關注，我們的思念和祈禱與任何受到影響的人同在.

With respect to the current impact, we don't see anything significant on our business. At this point in time, we don't anticipate anything coming out of these hurricanes that would have any type of significant impact at all on our upcoming wave season.

就目前的影響而言，我們認為對我們的業務沒有任何重大影響。目前，我們預計這些颶風不會對即將到來的海浪季節產生任何重大影響。

Yes. But by the way, if I had to estimate the impact on us at this point in time, clearly, because of some of the disruption, probably have a -- we have canceled a couple of cruises. And probably less than $10 million impact from both hurricanes Fiona and Ian. But remember, in a normal year, there's always an impact from hurricanes, and the impact right now for these 2 is probably less than $10 million.

是的。但順便說一句，如果我不得不估計此時對我們的影響，很明顯，由於一些中斷，我們可能已經取消了幾次巡航。颶風菲奧娜和伊恩的影響可能不到 1000 萬美元。但請記住，在正常年份，颶風總是會產生影響，而現在對這兩個的影響可能不到 1000 萬美元。

Our next question from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Brandt Montour。

I just wanted to maybe talk about -- a little bit more about '23, and specifically put the issues that you guys are having with current sort of booking window lengths or the length of time of the average booking that you called out as impacting the current quarter into context, which is that looking at '23, right, you're ahead of historical volumes for '23, you're ahead of pricing for '23 against historical pricing. And your current run rate of booking volumes right now are well ahead of '19. And so when you add all that up, I guess, I'm just trying to figure out what else -- what -- like besides exogenous events, could sort of derail you from turning the calendar year in a normal position versus history? Like why else would that not be a normal year, except for maybe the length of time people are averaging their booking out into the future?

我只是想談談 - 關於 23 年的更多信息，特別是你們在當前預訂窗口長度或平均預訂時間長度方面遇到的問題當前季度的背景，也就是說，看看 23 年，對，你領先於 23 年的歷史銷量，你領先於 23 年的歷史定價。而且您目前的預訂量運行率遠遠領先於 19 年。所以當你把所有這些加起來時，我想，我只是想弄清楚除了外部事件之外還有什麼——什麼——可能會讓你脫離正常的日曆年而不是歷史？就像為什麼那不是正常的一年，除了人們平均預訂未來的時間長度？

Yes, that's a good question. I mean, I think it points to what we were trying to express about how positive we are about the trajectory and how 2023 is already positioned. So we're going to do everything we can to make '23 a fantastic year. And so far, we've got a good base upon which to do it. We're ramping back things, ramping up things that we hadn't been doing in the past few years, a few months, whatever that might be, depending on the actions. And our goal is to smash it in 2023.

是的，這是個好問題。我的意思是，我認為它指向了我們試圖表達的關於我們對軌蹟的積極態度以及 2023 年已經定位的內容。因此，我們將竭盡所能，讓 23 年成為美好的一年。到目前為止，我們已經有了一個很好的基礎來做這件事。我們正在減少事情，增加我們在過去幾年，幾個月內沒有做的事情，無論是什麼，取決於行動。我們的目標是在 2023 年粉碎它。

And the only thing I'll add to that is our onboard revenue per diems have been up significantly in '22. And as I said in my notes, that also puts us on track for a record year in 2023 for onboard revenues.

我唯一要補充的是，我們的機上每日津貼收入在 22 年顯著增加。正如我在筆記中所說，這也使我們有望在 2023 年實現船上收入創紀錄的一年。

Yes. And we keep leveraging more and more our presales of onboard spending, which is wind at our backs. We have a richer cabin mix, as we talked about. So there are quite a few things that set us up for success and so we thought we need to deliver.

是的。我們繼續利用越來越多的預售機上支出，這是我們背後的風聲。正如我們所說，我們有更豐富的客艙組合。因此，有很多事情為我們的成功奠定了基礎，因此我們認為我們需要交付。

And if I could just maybe ask a question about pricing and how to think about the effect of promotional activity this year, which for the whole industry was more elevated. At least, we perceived it to be more elevated. It was sort of as expected, as the industry doubled its capacity essentially overnight earlier this year. But I guess my question is, when you think about next year and headline prices versus net prices after promo, is there some kind of dynamic where it might be easier to lift pricing over the next several quarters just by peeling off promotional activity? It feels like that would be an easier exercise than raising headline prices, but I could be completely off.

如果我可以問一個關於定價的問題，以及如何考慮今年促銷活動的效果，這對整個行業來說都更高。至少，我們認為它更高。這有點像預期的那樣，因為該行業的產能在今年早些時候幾乎在一夜之間翻了一番。但我想我的問題是，當您考慮明年以及促銷後的標題價格與淨價格時，是否存在某種動態，僅通過剝離促銷活動可能更容易在未來幾個季度提高定價？感覺這比提高標題價格更容易，但我可能會完全離開。

Yes. Look, there's lots of levers that our brands use via opaque channels, via promotions and such. We have the same goal, right, in any event, which is to generate as high a price as we can and as much revenue as we can. And so to your point, there's opportunity when you look at what we've done this year versus how we're tackling next year, and we're going to do our best to perform at a high level.

是的。看，我們的品牌通過不透明的渠道、促銷等方式使用了很多槓桿。無論如何，我們的目標是一樣的，那就是創造盡可能高的價格和盡可能多的收入。因此，就您而言，當您查看我們今年所做的事情與明年我們將如何應對時，這是一個機會，我們將盡最大努力在高水平上表現。

I think, operator, I think that's all the time we have for calls today. But thank you, everybody, for joining and listening.

我想，接線員，我想這就是我們今天的所有通話時間。但是，謝謝大家的加入和聆聽。

Yes. No, thank you very much, everybody. And look forward to working with Josh. 2023, as we said, with pricing being up considerably higher on our books and all the other things we indicated, we feel very good about 2023. So thanks, and have a great afternoon.

是的。不，非常感謝大家。並期待與喬希合作。正如我們所說，2023 年，由於我們的書籍和我們指出的所有其他事情的價格大幅上漲，我們對 2023 年感覺非常好。謝謝，祝您下午愉快。

That concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation and ask you to please disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。