嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and happy holidays, everyone. Welcome to our business update conference call. I am Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc and today, I'm joined telephonically by our Chairman, Micky Arison; as well as by David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer; and by Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Now before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

大家早上好，節日快樂。歡迎參加我們的業務更新電話會議。我是 Carnival Corporation & plc 總裁兼首席執行官 Arnold Donald，今天，我們的董事長 Micky Arison 通過電話與我會面；以及我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein；以及投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。感謝大家今天早上加入我們。現在在我開始之前，請注意，我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。因此，我必須向您介紹今天新聞稿中的警示性聲明。

What a difference a year make. We are clearly on our way back to full cruise operations, with 50 ships now serving guests as we end the fiscal year. And that's up from just 1 ship, 1 short year ago. We've already returned over 65,000 crew members to our ships and since resuming operations, over 1.2 million guests and counting have sailed with us. Now we've achieved that while delivering an exceptional guest experience, with historically high Net Promoter Scores.

一年有什麼不同。我們顯然正在恢復全面的郵輪運營，在本財政年度結束時，現在有 50 艘郵輪為客人提供服務。這比一年前只有一艘船還要高。我們已經將超過 65,000 名船員送回了我們的船隻，自恢復運營以來，已有超過 120 萬客人和我們一起航行。現在，我們實現了這一目標，同時提供了卓越的賓客體驗，淨推薦值創歷史新高。

These are strong accomplishments, especially in light of the uncertainty we faced just 1 year ago, when vaccines were not yet available and effective protocols to mitigate the spread of the virus were still evolving. Today, our team members and the vast majority of guests have received vaccines and many have received boosters. We have assessed the effective protocols for COVID-19 and its variant, enabling occupancy to progress toward historical lows. In fact, occupancies at our Carnival Cruise Line brand, which currently operates itineraries that are most similar to its normally published itineraries, are now approaching 90%, and that's after the impact of the variants on near-term booking. Again, Carnival Cruise Line continues to outperform with both occupancy and pricing strength.

這些都是了不起的成就，尤其是考慮到我們一年前還面臨著不確定性，當時還沒有疫苗可用，減輕病毒傳播的有效方案仍在不斷發展。今天，我們的團隊成員和絕大多數客人都接種了疫苗，許多人都接種了加強劑。我們已經評估了 COVID-19 及其變體的有效協議，使入住率朝著歷史低點發展。事實上，我們的 Carnival Cruise Line 品牌目前運營與其通常發布的行程最相似的行程，其入住率現在接近 90%，這是在變體對近期預訂的影響之後。嘉年華郵輪公司再次在入住率和定價方面繼續跑贏大盤。

Even at this early stage, as a company, we are now generating meaningful cash flow at the ship level to date and growing, helping to fund start-up costs for the remaining fleet. Total customer deposits have grown by over $1.2 billion from the prior year level as our book position continues to build and to strengthen. Importantly, we ended the year with $9.4 billion of liquidity and that's essentially the same liquidity level as last year, but was significantly improved cash flow generation ahead of the aforementioned ship operating cash flows and customer deposits continue to build. With 68% of our capacity now in operation and the remainder planned by spring, we are well-positioned by our important summer season, where we historically have the lion's share of our operating profit.

即使在這個早期階段，作為一家公司，我們現在也在船舶層面產生有意義的現金流並不斷增長，幫助為剩餘船隊的啟動成本提供資金。隨著我們的賬面頭寸繼續建立和加強，客戶存款總額比上一年增加了超過 12 億美元。重要的是，我們以 94 億美元的流動性結束了這一年，這與去年的流動性水平基本相同，但在上述船舶運營現金流和客戶存款繼續增加之前，現金流產生顯著改善。我們目前有 68% 的產能投入運營，其餘產能計劃在春季之前完成，我們在重要的夏季旺季處於有利位置，歷史上我們佔據了運營利潤的最大份額。

Throughout 2021, we said that we expected the environment to remain dynamic and it certainly has. Of course, agility has been a key strength of ours, and we continue to aggressively manage to optimize, given this ever-changing landscape. As we have demonstrated through the Delta variant and now with Omicron, we have navigated near-term operational challenges. While the variants and their corresponding effect on consumer confidence have created some near-term booking volatility, our book position has remained resilient, and in the case of Delta variant, already recovered. Importantly, these variants have not had a significant impact on our ultimate plan to return our full fleet to guest operations in the spring of 2022.

在整個 2021 年，我們表示我們預計環境將保持活力，而且確實如此。當然，敏捷性一直是我們的關鍵優勢，鑑於這種不斷變化的環境，我們將繼續積極地進行優化。正如我們通過 Delta 變體和現在的 Omicron 所展示的那樣，我們已經應對了近期的運營挑戰。雖然這些變體及其對消費者信心的相應影響造成了一些近期的預訂波動，但我們的預訂頭寸仍然保持彈性，就達美變體而言，已經恢復。重要的是，這些變體並未對我們在 2022 年春季將我們的全部機隊恢復為客戶運營的最終計劃產生重大影響。

It is clear, we have maximized our return to service in 2021, and we have positioned the company well to withstand the potential volatility on our path to profitability. At the same time, we have not lost sight of our highest responsibility and therefore, our top priority, which is always compliance, environmental protection and the health, safety and well-being of everyone. That's our guests, people in the communities we touch and serve and, of course, our Carnival family, our team members shipboard and shoreside. And to that end, we've achieved many important milestones along the way in our return to service.

很明顯，我們已經最大限度地提高了 2021 年的服務回報率，並且我們已經為公司做好了充分的準備，以抵禦我們盈利道路上的潛在波動。同時，我們並沒有忘記我們的最高責任，因此，我們的首要任務，始終是合規、環境保護以及每個人的健康、安全和福祉。那是我們的客人，我們接觸和服務的社區中的人們，當然還有我們的嘉年華大家庭，我們的團隊成員在船上和岸邊。為此，我們在恢復服務的過程中取得了許多重要的里程碑。

For example, broadening our commitment to ESG with the introduction of our 2030 sustainability goals and our 2050 aspirations, and that's building on the successful achievement of our 2020 goals. Increased our ESG disclosure by incorporating SASB and TCFD framework in our sustainability report, bolstering our compliance efforts, with the addition of a new board member with valuable compliance experience, a strong addition to our Board of Directors and our Board Compliance Committee. Improving our culture through emphasizing essential behaviors and incorporating them into our ethos, through training and development and through everyday real-time feedback.

例如，通過引入我們的 2030 年可持續發展目標和 2050 年願景來擴大我們對 ESG 的承諾，這是建立在我們成功實現 2020 年目標的基礎上的。通過將 SASB 和 TCFD 框架納入我們的可持續發展報告，加強我們的合規工作，增加了我們的 ESG 披露，增加了一位具有寶貴合規經驗的新董事會成員，是我們董事會和董事會合規委員會的重要成員。通過強調基本行為並將其融入我們的精神，通過培訓和發展以及通過日常實時反饋來改善我們的文化。

As we are already among the most diverse companies in the world, with a global employee base representing over 130 countries, we are focusing our efforts on diversity and inclusion at every level and in all areas of our operations. And of course, there are many more operational milestones such as reopening our 8 owned and operated private destinations and port facilities. Princess Cay, Half Moon Cay, Grand Turk, Mahogany Bay, Amber Cove, Cozumel, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Barcelona, all delivering an exceptional experience to over 630,000 of the 1.2 million guests since resuming operations.

由於我們已經是世界上最多元化的公司之一，在全球擁有代表 130 多個國家/地區的員工群，因此我們正在努力在各個層面和所有運營領域實現多元化和包容性。當然，還有更多的運營里程碑，例如重新開放我們擁有和運營的 8 個私人目的地和港口設施。 Princess Cay、Half Moon Cay、Grand Turk、Mahogany Bay、Amber Cove、Cozumel、Santa Cruz de Tenerife 和 Barcelona，自恢復運營以來為 120 萬客人中的超過 630,000 人提供了非凡的體驗。

Welcoming 9 new [more] efficient ships across our world-leading brands, including Mardi Gras powered by LNG. Mardi Gras is nothing short of a game changer for our namesake brand, Carnival Cruise Line. Premium brand, Holland America; introduced the New Rotterdam, sister ship to very successful Koningsdam; and Nieuw Statendam. Princess welcomed guests aboard a new Medallion-class ship, Enchanted Princess, and we'll welcome another new Medallion-class ship, the Discovery Princess early next year. And ultra-luxury brands, Seabourn. We'll welcome Seabourn Venture with its world-class expedition team and a spectacular 360-degree view submarines.

歡迎我們世界領先品牌的 9 艘新 [更多] 高效船舶，包括由液化天然氣驅動的 Mardi Gras。對於我們的同名品牌 Carnival Cruise Line 來說，Mardi Gras 簡直就是一個改變遊戲規則的人。優質品牌，荷美；向非常成功的 Koningsdam 介紹了新鹿特丹號姊妹船；和新斯塔滕丹。公主號歡迎客人乘坐新的獎章級船“魔法公主”號，我們將在明年初歡迎另一艘新的獎章級船發現公主號。還有超豪華品牌Seabourn。我們將歡迎 Seabourn Venture 及其世界級的探險隊和壯觀的 360 度全景潛艇。

For the U.K., we successfully introduced Iona, also powered by LNG. For Germany, we shortly take delivery of our 6 LNG-powered ship, AIDA Club, sister to the also highly successful, AIDAnova. And for Southern Europe, Costa Firenze and LNG-powered Costa Toscana will replace the exit of several less-efficient ships. Now these new ships, Mardi Gras, Iona, Costa Toscana have joined AIDAnova and Costa Smeralda to be the only 5, and with the addition of AIDAcosma (inaudible), the only 6 large cruise ships in the world currently powered by LNG, demonstrating our leading edge decarbonization efforts.

對於英國，我們成功引入了同樣由 LNG 提供動力的 Iona。對於德國，我們很快接收了我們的 6 艘液化天然氣動力船 AIDA Club，它是同樣非常成功的 AIDAnova 的姊妹船。對於南歐，Costa Firenze 和以液化天然氣為動力的 Costa Toscana 將取代幾艘效率較低的船舶的出口。現在這些新船，Mardi Gras、Iona、Costa Toscana 已加入 AIDAnova 和 Costa Smeralda 成為僅有的 5 艘，加上 AIDAcosma（聽不清），成為目前世界上僅有的 6 艘由 LNG 驅動的大型遊輪，展示了我們的領先的脫碳努力。

Now while the utilization of LNG is a positive step for the environment, Costa's LNG is inherently 20% more carbon-efficient, it is not our ultimate solution. We have announced our net zero aspirations by 2050. Now while there is no known end to zero carbon emissions in our industry at this time, we are working to be part of the solution. We have and expect to continue to demonstrate leadership in executing carbon reduction strategies. We are focused on decreasing our unit fuel consumption today, reducing even the need for carbon offsets.

現在，雖然 LNG 的利用是對環境的積極一步，但 Costa 的 LNG 本身的碳效率提高了 20%，但這不是我們的最終解決方案。我們已經宣布了到 2050 年實現淨零排放的目標。雖然目前我們行業還沒有已知的零碳排放目標，但我們正在努力成為解決方案的一部分。我們已經並期望繼續在執行碳減排戰略方面表現出領先地位。今天，我們專注於降低單位燃料消耗，甚至減少對碳補償的需求。

Our decarbonization efforts have enabled us to peak our absolute carbon emissions way back in 2011, and that's despite an approximately 25% capacity growth since that time. And while today, based on publicly available information, we believe we are the only major cruise operator that peaked our absolute emissions. Our entire industry is moving in the right direction. And as a company, with a 25% reduction in carbon intensity already under our belt, we are well-positioned to achieve our 40% reduction goal by 2030 and are working hard to reach that deliverable ahead of schedule.

我們的脫碳努力使我們能夠在 2011 年達到絕對碳排放量的峰值，儘管自那時以來產能增長了約 25%。而今天，根據公開信息，我們相信我們是唯一一家達到絕對排放量峰值的主要郵輪運營商。我們整個行業都在朝著正確的方向發展。作為一家公司，我們已經將碳強度降低了 25%，我們完全有能力在 2030 年之前實現 40% 的減排目標，並且正在努力提前實現這一目標。

Now in addition to our cutting-edge LNG efforts, we have many other ongoing efforts to accelerate decarbonization. To name just a few, they include itinerary optimization and technology upgrades to our existing fleet at an investment of over $350 million, in areas such as air conditioning, waste management, lighting and, of course, the list goes on. We are actively increasing our shore power capabilities. Greater than 45% of our fleet is already equipped to connect to shore power and we plan to reach at least 60% by 2030.

現在，除了我們尖端的 LNG 工作之外，我們還有許多其他正在進行的努力來加速脫碳。僅舉幾例，它們包括對我們現有車隊的行程優化和技術升級，投資超過 3.5 億美元，在空調、廢物管理、照明等領域，當然，不勝枚舉。我們正在積極提高我們的岸電能力。我們超過 45% 的船隊已經具備連接岸電的能力，我們計劃到 2030 年至少達到 60%。

Now we helped develop the first port with shore power capability for cruise ships, leading to the development of 21 ports to date and counting. We are focused on expanding shore power to our high-volume ports around the world. That includes Miami, South Hampton, England and Hamburg, Germany. So to ultimately achieve net zero emissions over time, we are investing in research and development, partnering on projects to evaluate and pilot, maritime, scale battery and fuel cell technology. And working with classification societies and engine manufacturers to assess hydrogen, methanol as well as bio and synthetic fuels as future low-carbon fuel options for cruise ships.

現在，我們幫助開發了第一個具有遊輪岸電能力的港口，迄今已開發了 21 個港口，而且還在不斷增加。我們專注於將岸電擴展到我們在世界各地的高容量港口。其中包括邁阿密、英格蘭南漢普頓和德國漢堡。因此，為了最終實現淨零排放，我們正在投資研發，合作開展項目以評估和試點、海事、規模化電池和燃料電池技術。並與船級社和發動機製造商合作，評估氫、甲醇以及生物和合成燃料作為遊輪未來的低碳燃料選擇。

Also, these efforts, combined with the exit of 19 less efficient ships, are forecasted to deliver upon returning to full operations, a 10% reduction in unit fuel consumption on an annualized basis. Now that's a significant achievement on our path to decarbonization. Our strategic assist to accelerate the exit of 19 ships left us with a more efficient and a more effective fleet overall, and it's lowered our capacity growth to roughly 2.5% compounded annually from 2019 through 2025. Now that's down from [4.5%] annually, pre-COVID. While capacity growth is constrained, we will benefit from this exciting roster of new ships spread across our brands, enabling us to capitalize on pent-up demand and drive even more enthusiasm around our restart plan.

此外，這些努力，再加上 19 艘效率較低的船舶的退出，預計將在恢復全面運營後實現，單位燃料消耗量每年減少 10%。現在，這是我們脫碳道路上的一項重大成就。我們加快 19 艘船退出的戰略協助使我們的船隊整體效率更高、效率更高，並且從 2019 年到 2025 年，這將我們的運力增長率降低到每年約 2.5%。現在，這比每年 [4.5%] 有所下降，疫情前。雖然運力增長受到限制，但我們將受益於遍布我們品牌的令人興奮的新船名冊，使我們能夠利用被壓抑的需求並激發對重啟計劃的更多熱情。

We enjoy a further structural benefit to revenue from these enhanced guest experiences, new ships. Due to the richer mix of premium priced (inaudible) cabins, which will increase 6 percentage points to 55% of our fleet in 2023. Now of course, as we mentioned before, we will also achieve a structural benefit to unit cost, as we deliver these new, larger, more efficient ships, coupled with the exit of 19 less efficient ships that will help generate a 4% reduction in ship level unit cost going forward, enabling us to deliver more revenue to the bottom line.

我們從這些增強的客戶體驗和新船中獲得了進一步的結構性收益。由於高價（聽不清）客艙的組合更加豐富，到 2023 年，這將增加 6 個百分點，達到我們機隊的 55%。當然，正如我們之前提到的，我們還將實現單位成本的結構性收益，因為我們交付這些新的、更大、更高效的船舶，再加上 19 艘效率較低的船舶的退出，這將有助於未來船舶單位成本降低 4%，使我們能夠為利潤帶來更多收入。

Upon returning to full operations, nearly [50%] of our capacity will consist of these newly-delivered, larger, more efficient ships, expediting our return to profitability and improving our return on investment capital. Now we are clearly resuming operations as a more efficient operating company and we'll use our cash flow strength to reduce our leverage on our path back to investment-grade credit.

恢復全面運營後，我們近 [50%] 的運力將由這些新交付的、更大、更高效的船舶組成，從而加快我們的盈利回報並提高我們的投資資本回報率。現在，作為一家更高效的運營公司，我們顯然正在恢復運營，我們將利用我們的現金流優勢來降低我們在回歸投資級信貸的道路上的槓桿作用。

Last quarter, we discussed the initial impact of the Delta variant. We indicated we saw an impact on near-term booking volumes in the month of August. Booking volumes accelerated sequentially and returned to pre-Delta levels in November. And as we say we would, we maintain price despite the disruption, achieving 4% higher revenue per passenger cruise day in our fourth quarter than the fourth quarter of 2019. In fact, the Carnival Cruise Line brand where we, as I mentioned, are able to offer more comparable itineraries to those in 2019, experienced its second consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth for PCD, while improving occupancy with nearly 60% of its capacity return to service.

上個季度，我們討論了 Delta 變體的初始影響。我們表示，我們看到了 8 月份對近期預訂量的影響。預訂量在 11 月連續加速並恢復到 Delta 之前的水平。正如我們所說的那樣，儘管受到干擾，我們仍保持價格，第四季度的每個乘客遊輪日的收入比 2019 年第四季度高出 4%。事實上，正如我所提到的，我們所在的嘉年華郵輪品牌是能夠提供與 2019 年更多類似的行程，PCD 的收入連續第二個季度實現兩位數增長，同時提高了入住率，近 60% 的運力恢復服務。

Now that's a testament to the fundamental strength in demand for our cruise product, especially when you consider this was accomplished without the benefit of a major advertiser. We expect to build on this momentum with the brand's announcement just last week on its Funderstruck campaign, engineered to highlight the joy and fun of a Carnival Cruise. That advertising campaign is launching over the holidays, including the activations on Christmas Day and Time Square on New Year's Eve, in time for our wave season.

現在，這證明了對我們郵輪產品需求的基本實力，尤其是當您認為這是在沒有主要廣告商利益的情況下完成的。我們希望通過該品牌上週在其 Funderstruck 活動中的公告來鞏固這一勢頭，旨在突出嘉年華巡遊的樂趣和樂趣。該廣告活動將在假期期間啟動，包括聖誕節和新年前夜時代廣場的活動，正好趕上我們的浪潮季節。

Turning to something that's very present in the news today, Omicron variant. We have also experienced some initial impact on near-term bookings, although difficult to measure. That said, we have a solid book position and intentionally constrained capacity for the first half of 2022. With the existing demand and limited capacity, we remain focused on maintaining price. Bookings continue to build for the remainder of 2022 and well into 2023. And we are achieving those early bookings with strong demand. In fact, pricing on our book position for the back half of 2022 improved since last quarter, and that's despite the Delta variant.

談到今天新聞中非常普遍的東西，Omicron 變體。儘管難以衡量，但我們也對近期預訂產生了一些初步影響。也就是說，我們在 2022 年上半年擁有穩固的賬面地位和有意限制產能。在現有需求和有限產能的情況下，我們仍然專注於維持價格。 2022 年剩餘時間和 2023 年的預訂量繼續增加。我們正在實現那些需求強勁的早期預訂。事實上，自上個季度以來，我們對 2022 年下半年賬面頭寸的定價有所改善，儘管有 Delta 變體。

The current environment, while choppy, has improved dramatically since last summer. And as the current trend of vaccine rollouts and advancements in therapies continues, it should improve even further by next summer. So looking forward, we remain on a path to consistently deliver cash flow from operations during the second quarter of 2022 and generate profit in the second half of 2022. Importantly, we believe we have the potential to generate higher EBITDA in 2023 compared to 2019, given despite our modest growth rate, additional capacity and our improved cost structure.

當前的環境雖然波濤洶湧，但自去年夏天以來已顯著改善。隨著當前疫苗推出和療法進步的趨勢繼續下去，到明年夏天它應該會進一步改善。因此，展望未來，我們將繼續在 2022 年第二季度持續提供運營現金流，並在 2022 年下半年產生利潤。重要的是，我們相信與 2019 年相比，我們有可能在 2023 年產生更高的 EBITDA，儘管我們的增長率適中、產能增加且成本結構有所改善。

Throughout the pause, we have been proactively managing to resume operations as an even stronger and more efficient operating company to maximize cash generation and to deliver double-digit return on invested capital. Once we return to full operations, our cash flow will be the primary driver to return to investment-grade credit over time, creating greater shareholder value. And we continue to move forward in a very positive way. And for that, I, again express my deepest appreciation to our Carnival team members, both shipboard and shoreside, who consistently go above and beyond. I am very proud of all we've accomplished collectively to sustain our organization through these challenging times and I am very humbled by the dedication I've seen from our teams throughout.

在整個停頓期間，我們一直在積極設法恢復運營，成為一家更強大、更高效的運營公司，以最大限度地產生現金並實現兩位數的投資資本回報。一旦我們恢復全面運營，隨著時間的推移，我們的現金流將成為恢復投資級信用的主要驅動力，從而創造更大的股東價值。我們繼續以非常積極的方式前進。為此，我再次向我們的嘉年華團隊成員表示最深切的感謝，無論是船上還是岸上，他們一直在超越自我。我為我們共同為在這些充滿挑戰的時期維持我們的組織所取得的一切而感到自豪，我對我在整個團隊中看到的奉獻精神感到非常謙卑。

Of course, we couldn't have done it without the overwhelming support from all of you. So once again, thank you to our valued guests. Thank you to our travel agent partners. Thank you to our home port and destination communities. Thank you to our suppliers and other many stakeholders. And of course, thank you to our investors for your continued confidence in us and for your ongoing support. Once again, we can't wait to welcome everyone back on board.

當然，如果沒有大家的大力支持，我們是不可能做到的。因此，再次感謝我們尊貴的客人。感謝我們的旅行社合作夥伴。感謝我們的母港和目的地社區。感謝我們的供應商和其他許多利益相關者。當然，感謝我們的投資者對我們的持續信任和持續的支持。再一次，我們迫不及待地歡迎大家回到船上。

With that, I will turn the call over to David.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Arnold. I'll start today with some color on our positive cash from operations, followed by a review of guest cruise operations, along with a summary of our fourth quarter cash flows. Then I'll provide an update on booking trends and finish up with some insights into our financial position. Turning to cash from operations.

謝謝你，阿諾德。我將從今天開始對我們的運營正現金流進行一些說明，然後回顧客輪運營，以及我們第四季度現金流的摘要。然後，我將提供有關預訂趨勢的最新信息，並對我們的財務狀況提出一些見解。從運營中轉向現金。

I am so happy to report that our cash from operations turned positive in the month of November ahead of our previous indication, driven by increases in customer deposits and other working capital changes. We all know that booking trends are a leading indicator of the health of our business. With solid fourth quarter booking trends leading the way, driving customer deposits higher, positive EBITDA is clearly within our sight.

我很高興地報告，由於客戶存款的增加和其他營運資金的變化，我們在 11 月份的運營現金在我們之前的跡象之前轉為正數。我們都知道，預訂趨勢是我們業務健康度的領先指標。憑藉穩固的第四季度預訂趨勢，推動客戶存款增加，積極的 EBITDA 顯然在我們的視線之內。

Over the next few months, we expect ship level cash contributions to grow as more ships return to service and as we build on our occupancy percentages. However, cash from operations and EBITDA, over the next few months, will be impacted by restart-related spending and dry dock expenses as 28 ships, almost 1/3 of our fleet, will be in dry dock during the first half of fiscal 2022. Given all these factors combined, we expect both monthly cash from operations and monthly EBITDA to consistently turn positive during the second quarter of fiscal 2022. So 2022 will be a tale of two halves. While we expect the net loss for the first half of 2022, it makes me feel so good to say we expect the profit for the second half of 2022.

在接下來的幾個月裡，我們預計隨著更多船舶恢復服務以及我們的入住率增加，船舶層面的現金貢獻將會增加。然而，未來幾個月的運營現金和 EBITDA 將受到與重啟相關的支出和乾船塢費用的影響，因為 28 艘船舶（幾乎占我們船隊的 1/3）將在 2022 財年上半年進入乾船塢. 考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計月度運營現金和月度 EBITDA 在 2022 財年第二季度將持續轉正。因此，2022 年將是兩半的故事。雖然我們預計 2022 年上半年將出現淨虧損，但我很高興地說我們預計 2022 年下半年將實現盈利。

Now let's look at guest cruise operations. During the fourth quarter, we successfully restarted 22 ships. During the month of December, we will restart an additional 7 ships, so we will be celebrating on New Year's Eve with over 2/3 of our fleet capacity in service. Our plans call for the remainder of the fleet to restart guest cruise operations by spring, putting us in a great position for our seasonally strong summer period. For the fourth quarter, occupancy was 58% across the ships in service and that was a 4-point improvement over the 54% we achieved last quarter during the peak summer season, despite the slowdown in bookings just prior to the fourth quarter from the Delta variant.

現在讓我們來看看客人郵輪運營。第四季度，我們成功重啟了 22 艘船舶。在 12 月份，我們將重新啟動另外 7 艘船，因此我們將在新年前夜慶祝新年前夜，超過 2/3 的船隊運力投入使用。我們的計劃要求船隊的其餘成員在春季之前重新開始客輪運營，從而使我們在季節性旺盛的夏季處於有利位置。第四季度，儘管三角洲的預訂量在第四季度之前有所放緩，但在役船舶的佔用率為 58%，比我們在上一季度夏季旺季實現的 54% 提高了 4 個百分點變體。

During the fourth quarter, we carried over 850,000 guests, which was 2.5x the number of guests we carried in the third quarter. Our brands executed extremely well with Net Promoter Scores continuing at elevated levels compared to pre-COVID scores. Revenue per passenger cruise day for the fourth quarter 2021 increased 4% compared to a strong 2019, despite the current constraints on itinerary offering. Once again, our onboard and other revenue per diems were up significantly in the fourth quarter 2021 versus the fourth quarter 2019, in part due to the bundled packages as well as onboard credits utilized by guests from cruises canceled during the pause. We had great growth in onboard and other per diems on both sides of the Atlantic. Increases in bar, casino, shops, spa and Internet led the way on board. Over the past 2 years, we have offered and our guests have chosen more and more bundled package options. In the end, we will see the benefit of these bundled packages and onboard and other revenue as we did during the second half of 2021.

第四季度，我們載客量超過 850,000 人次，是第三季度載客量的 2.5 倍。與 COVID 之前的得分相比，我們的品牌表現非常出色，淨推薦值繼續保持在較高水平。儘管目前行程供應受限，但與 2019 年的強勁表現相比，2021 年第四季度的每位乘客郵輪日收入增長了 4%。與 2019 年第四季度相比，我們在 2021 年第四季度的機上和其他每日每日收入顯著增長，部分原因是捆綁套餐以及客人在暫停期間取消的遊輪使用的機上積分。我們在大西洋兩岸的船上和其他每日津貼都有很大的增長。酒吧、賭場、商店、水療中心和互聯網的增加引領了這一趨勢。在過去的 2 年中，我們提供並且我們的客人選擇了越來越多的捆綁套餐選項。最後，我們將看到這些捆綁包以及機上和其他收入的好處，就像我們在 2021 年下半年所做的那樣。

As a result of these bundled packages, the line between passenger ticket revenue and onboard revenue is blurred. For accounting purposes, we allocate the total price paid by the guests between the 2 categories. Therefore, the best way to judge our performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics. For those of you who are modeling our future results, based on our planned restart schedule for fiscal 2022, available lower berth days, or ALBDs, as they are more commonly called, will be approximately $78 million. By quarter, the ALBDs will be for the first quarter, $14.1 million; for the second quarter, $17.8 million; for the third quarter, $23 million even; and for the fourth quarter, $23.1 million.

由於這些捆綁套餐，客票收入和機上收入之間的界限變得模糊。出於會計目的，我們在 2 個類別之間分配客人支付的總價格。因此，判斷我們業績的最佳方式是參考我們的總郵輪收入指標。對於那些正在為我們的未來結果建模的人，根據我們計劃的 2022 財年重啟時間表，可用的下舖天數或 ALBD（通常被稱為）將約為 7800 萬美元。按季度計算，第一季度的 ALBD 為 1410 萬美元；第二季度，1780 萬美元；第三季度，甚至 2300 萬美元；第四季度為 2310 萬美元。

Fuel consumption will be approximately 2.9 million metric tons. The current blended spot price for fuel is $563 per metric ton. I did want to point out that due to the cost of a portion of our fleet being in pause status during the first half of 2022, restart-related expenses, the cost of maintaining enhanced health and safety protocols and inflation, we are projecting net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD in 2022 to be significantly higher than 2019 despite the benefit we get from the 19 smaller, less-efficient ships leaving the fleet. Remember, that because a portion of the fleet will be in pause status during the first half, we are spreading costs over less ALBDs. We do anticipate that most of these costs and expenses will end with 2022 and will not reoccur in fiscal 2023. In addition, we expect depreciation and amortization to be $2.4 billion for fiscal 2022, while net interest expense, without any further refinancing, is likely to be around $1.5 billion.

燃料消耗量約為 290 萬噸。目前燃料的混合現貨價格為每公噸 563 美元。我確實想指出，由於我們部分船隊在 2022 年上半年處於暫停狀態的成本、與重啟相關的費用、維持增強的健康和安全協議的成本以及通貨膨脹，我們預計淨巡航儘管我們從離開船隊的 19 艘較小、效率較低的船舶中受益，但 2022 年每 ALBD 的無燃料成本將顯著高於 2019 年。請記住，由於部分機隊將在上半年處於暫停狀態，因此我們將成本分攤到較少的 ALBD 上。我們確實預計這些成本和費用中的大部分將在 2022 年結束，並且不會在 2023 財年再次發生。此外，我們預計 2022 財年的折舊和攤銷為 24 億美元，而淨利息費用很可能在沒有任何進一步再融資的情況下發生約為15億美元。

Next, I'll provide a summary of our fourth quarter cash flows. During the fourth quarter 2021, our liquidity increased by $1.6 billion to $9.4 billion at the end of the fourth quarter from $7.8 billion at the end of the third quarter. The increase in liquidity was driven by the $2 billion senior unsecured notes we issued in October to refinance 2022 maturities. The $360 million customer deposit increase added to the total. This was a third consecutive quarter we saw an increase in customer deposits. Completion of a loan we previously mentioned, supported by the Italian government with some debt holiday principal refund payments, added another $400 million. Working capital and other items net contributed $300 million. All these increases totaled $3.1 billion, which was somewhat offset by our cash burn of $1.5 billion, simply a monthly average cash burn rate of $510 million per month times 3. It should be noted that our monthly average cash burn rate for the fourth quarter 2021 was better than planned, driven by lower capital expenditures.

接下來，我將提供我們第四季度現金流的摘要。在 2021 年第四季度，我們的流動性從第三季度末的 78 億美元增加到第四季度末的 94 億美元，增加了 16 億美元。流動性的增加是由我們在 10 月發行的 20 億美元高級無擔保票據推動的，用於為 2022 年到期的再融資。總額增加了 3.6 億美元的客戶存款。這是我們連續第三個季度看到客戶存款增加。我們之前提到的一筆貸款的完成，在意大利政府的支持下提供了一些債務假期本金退款，又增加了 4 億美元。營運資金和其他項目淨貢獻了 3 億美元。所有這些增長總計 31 億美元，這在一定程度上被我們 15 億美元的現金消耗所抵消，這只是每月平均 5.1 億美元的現金消耗率乘以 3。應該注意的是，我們 2021 年第四季度的月平均現金消耗率由於資本支出減少，好於計劃。

Turning to booking trends. Our cumulative advanced book position for the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 are at the higher end of historical ranges, and at higher prices compared to 2019 with or without FCCs but normalized for bundled packages. This is a great achievement, given pricing on bookings for 2019 sailings is a tough comparison as that was the high watermark for historical yields. Booking volumes for the same period during the fourth quarter of 2021 were higher than the third quarter. During the fourth quarter 2021, we significantly increased our advertising expense compared to the third quarter, in anticipation of the full fleet being in operation in the spring of 2022, generating demand and allowing us to improve pricing on our book position. However, the fourth quarter advertising expense is still significantly below our spending in the fourth quarter 2019.

轉向預訂趨勢。我們在 2022 年下半年和 2023 年上半年的累計提前預訂頭寸處於歷史範圍的高端，並且與 2019 年有或沒有 FCC 的情況相比價格更高，但捆綁包的價格已正常化。這是一項了不起的成就，因為 2019 年航行的預訂定價是一個艱難的比較，因為這是歷史收益率的高水位線。 2021 年第四季度同期的預訂量高於第三季度。在 2021 年第四季度，與第三季度相比，我們顯著增加了廣告費用，預計 2022 年春季將有全部機隊投入運營，從而產生需求並讓我們能夠提高我們的賬面價格。然而，第四季度的廣告費用仍大大低於我們在 2019 年第四季度的支出。

Finally, I will finish up with some insights into our financial position. What a difference a year makes, except for our liquidity. As Arnold indicated, we entered 2022 with $9.4 billion of liquidity, essentially the same liquidity level as last year but with significantly improved cash flow generation ahead as ship operating cash flows and customer deposits continue to build. Through our debt management efforts, we have refinanced $9 billion to date, reducing our future annual interest expense by approximately $400 million per year and extending maturities, optimizing our debt maturity profile.

最後，我將對我們的財務狀況提出一些見解。除了我們的流動性，一年有什麼不同。正如阿諾德所說，我們進入 2022 年時的流動性為 94 億美元，流動性水平與去年基本相同，但隨著船舶運營現金流和客戶存款的持續增加，未來現金流的產生將顯著改善。通過我們的債務管理工作，迄今為止，我們已再融資 90 億美元，將我們未來的年度利息支出每年減少約 4 億美元，並延長到期日，優化我們的債務到期狀況。

With our 2022 maturities already refinanced, we do not have any financing needs for 2022. However, we will pursue refinancings to extend maturities and reduce interest expense at the right time. Given our long history of positive, strong, resilient and growing cash flows unlike many other industries, in 2023, our focus will shift to deleveraging, driven by cash from operations. We expect to return to investment-grade credit over time creating greater shareholder value.

由於我們的 2022 年到期已經再融資，我們在 2022 年沒有任何融資需求。但是，我們將在適當的時候進行再融資以延長到期日並降低利息費用。鑑於我們與許多其他行業不同的長期積極、強勁、有彈性和不斷增長的現金流，到 2023 年，我們的重點將轉向去槓桿化，由運營現金驅動。隨著時間的推移，我們預計將恢復投資級信用，從而創造更大的股東價值。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Arnold.

現在我將把電話轉回給阿諾德。

Thank you, David. Operator, please open the call for questions.

謝謝你，大衛。接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So I just want to be clear about the near-term booking pressure due to Omicron. Is it fair to say that the booking pressure is really just around bookings for the first half of 2022? And what I'm trying to get at is we want to be sure that, that booking weakness hasn't started to impact further out bookings. And I know it's hard to understand which way Omicron might go. But would you expect a similar path that you witnessed around Delta, meaning bookings slowed and then rebounded very quickly as that fizzled out and got out of the media?

因此，我只想明確 Omicron 帶來的近期預訂壓力。公平地說，預訂壓力真的只是在 2022 年上半年的預訂附近嗎？我想要說明的是，我們想要確定的是，預訂疲軟並沒有開始影響進一步的預訂。而且我知道很難理解 Omicron 的發展方向。但是您是否會期待您在達美看到的類似路徑，這意味著預訂量會放緩，然後隨著這種情況消失並從媒體中消失，然後迅速反彈？

Steven, I think we have the experience I shared in the opening remarks about the Delta variant. We recovered in November completely from that. We'll have to see how this plays out. I think the great news is it appears to date from scientists around the world and medical experts, that while this particular variant is highly infectious, it seems to have less damaging effects on people that contracted it, especially those who are vaccinated. And we encourage everyone to be vaccinated, everybody to get their boosters. We have very effective protocols, and so again, I think our actual performance, and we had these protocols in place, as you will recall, even before there were vaccines, we had effective protocols with sailings in Europe. So we're amongst the safest form of socializing and travel that there are.

史蒂文，我想我們有我在開場白中分享的關於 Delta 變體的經驗。我們在 11 月完全康復。我們將不得不看看這是如何進行的。我認為好消息是來自世界各地的科學家和醫學專家的最新消息，雖然這種特殊的變種具有很強的傳染性，但它對感染它的人的破壞性影響似乎較小，尤其是那些接種過疫苗的人。我們鼓勵每個人都接種疫苗，每個人都得到他們的助推器。我們有非常有效的協議，因此，我認為我們的實際表現，而且我們已經制定了這些協議，你會記得，甚至在有疫苗之前，我們就有在歐洲航行的有效協議。因此，我們是最安全的社交和旅行方式之一。

And so to your question on the bookings, at this point, we have not seen any major impact on the second half '22, '23 bookings. It's hard for us to even quantify any impact, although we're kind of a reflection of overall consumer behavior globally. So sure, we've had some impact. We do see some -- a little spike in near-term cruise cancellations, but the booking patterns are strong. And we have not, at this point, seen anything and based on limited experience of the Delta variant and how this one seems to be playing out here at this time, not anticipating any. I hope that answered your question.

因此，對於您關於預訂的問題，在這一點上，我們還沒有看到對 22 年下半年和 23 年的預訂有任何重大影響。儘管我們在某種程度上反映了全球消費者的整體行為，但我們甚至很難量化任何影響。當然，我們已經產生了一些影響。我們確實看到了一些——近期遊輪取消量略有上升，但預訂模式很強勁。而且，在這一點上，我們還沒有看到任何東西，並且基於對 Delta 變體的有限經驗，以及這個時候這個變體似乎如何在這裡上演，沒有預料到任何事情。我希望這回答了你的問題。

Yes. That's great color. Appreciate that. And then second question is probably for David. But David, you guys have refinanced over, I think you said the number is $9 billion so far, and I'm wondering how much more you think is available to refinance over the next 6 to 12 months? And maybe help us understand that you talked about interest costs for '22 being around about $1.5 billion, and what that number might actually look like by the time we get to next year? And I'm not trying to get more -- I'm not here trying to get more detailed guidance at you guys, I'm just trying to understand the magnitude of how much more you really could go from here?

是的。這顏色真好。感謝。然後第二個問題可能是給大衛的。但是大衛，你們已經再融資了，我想你們說這個數字到目前為止是 90 億美元，我想知道你們認為在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內還有多少可用於再融資？也許可以幫助我們了解您談到 22 年的利息成本約為 15 億美元，到明年時這個數字可能會是什麼樣子？而且我不是想得到更多——我不是在這裡想為你們獲得更詳細的指導，我只是想了解你們真正可以從這裡走多遠？

Sure. So Steve, the -- if you look at our capital structure, the biggest piece that high interest rate debt are the [2 L notes] that we did in 2020 and those have high 9s or low 10s in terms of interest expense. So there is an opportunity there to do refinancing of those notes. And we'll look for the right time to consider doing that during 2022. And that could, on that few billion dollars that's outstanding that could, lower interest expense even further.

當然。所以史蒂夫，如果你看看我們的資本結構，高利率債務的最大部分是我們在 2020 年所做的 [2 L 票據]，而那些在利息支出方面有高 9 或低 10 的債務。因此，有機會對這些票據進行再融資。我們將尋找合適的時間來考慮在 2022 年這樣做。這可能會在這幾十億美元的未償餘額上進一步降低利息支出。

But we did give the forecast is -- with the guidance at $1.5 billion, and depending on the timing of any refinancing and the exact interest rate on what we refinance, there should be a considerable amount of savings going forward. And of course, keep in mind that as Arnold have indicated, we do expect that we believe we have the opportunity for higher EBITDA in 2023 as compared to 2019. And that should begin to drive debt down in 2023, our overall debt levels and correspondingly drive interest expense down. So it's a little premature to give guidance, but we do expect lower interest expense in 2023.

但我們確實給出了預測——在 15 億美元的指導下，根據任何再融資的時間和我們再融資的確切利率，未來應該會節省大量資金。當然，請記住，正如阿諾德所說，我們確實希望我們相信與 2019 年相比，我們有機會在 2023 年實現更高的 EBITDA。這應該會在 2023 年開始降低我們的整體債務水平以及相應的降低利息支出。因此，現在給出指導還為時過早，但我們確實預計 2023 年的利息費用會降低。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Great. I saw on your commentary that pricing for second half of '22 has gone up over the last quarter and realizing, of course, that Q1 '22 is still challenged, can you give us some color? Is there a firming point sometime during Q2, where you see that sort of the -- near-term impact sort of stopping and things being firm? Is it from sort of May forward? Or is there such a firming point? Or is it even earlier than may have potentially, where you're seeing that the bookings and pricing moving up that you are seeing in the second half, but where you can kind of see that point in Q2 where it's firming?

偉大的。我在您的評論中看到 22 年下半年的定價比上一季度有所上漲，當然，我意識到 22 年第一季度仍然面臨挑戰，您能給我們一些建議嗎？在第二季度的某個時候，是否有一個穩固的點，你會看到那種 - 近期影響停止並且事情變得穩固的地方？是從五月開始嗎？還是有這樣的堅定點？或者它是否比可能的更早，您看到預訂和定價在下半年上漲，但您可以在第二季度看到它正在堅挺的那個點？

Okay. Dave, you want to take the first shot and...

好的。戴夫，你想拍第一槍然後...

Yes, sure. No problem. So listen, a lot of the reason we're focused on the back half of the year, and we've talked about the comparisons in the back half and also the first half of 2023, is because you're talking about apples and apples comparisons relatively speaking, because the whole fleet is in operation, the itineraries that we're running are looking -- are similar to the itineraries that we ran in 2019. So it's an apples-to-apples comparison, and you can see what the booking trends -- the pricing trends look like.

是的，當然。沒問題。所以聽著，我們關注下半年的很多原因，我們討論了下半年和 2023 年上半年的比較，是因為你在談論蘋果和蘋果比較相對而言，因為整個車隊都在運營，所以我們正在運行的行程正在尋找 - 與我們在 2019 年運行的行程相似。所以這是一個蘋果對蘋果的比較，你可以看到什麼預訂趨勢——定價趨勢的樣子。

If you look at the first half of 2022, remember, this is apples and oranges. In 2019, we had World Cruises, we had long exotic voyages. Our whole fleet was in operation. That's not true for the first half of 2022. So on an apples-to-apples basis, the comparison doesn't look nearly as good as when you get down to the detailed itinerary level. And at the detailed level, we're very pleased with pricing. I mean, just to give you some comparisons, I mean, look at the fourth quarter, our total cruise revenue yield per PCD was up 4%. And so overall, we're very, very pleased with the pricing that we're seeing for the whole year. It's just it's an apples and oranges for the first half.

如果您看一下 2022 年上半年，請記住，這是蘋果和橙子。 2019 年，我們進行了環球航行，進行了漫長的異國航行。我們的整個艦隊都在運作。 2022 年上半年情況並非如此。因此，從蘋果到蘋果的基礎上，比較看起來並不像當你深入到詳細的行程水平時那樣好。在細節層面，我們對定價非常滿意。我的意思是，只是為了給你一些比較，我的意思是，看看第四季度，我們每 PCD 的總郵輪收入收益率上升了 4%。總的來說，我們對我們全年看到的定價感到非常非常滿意。這只是上半年的蘋果和橘子。

Okay. Understood. And then just for my other question, your commentary about expenses is very helpful, thinking about there are some nonrecurring hire things in 2022, and you said most of those won't recur in '23. And I realize it's way too early for you to sort of give an expense guidance number in 2023. But is it reasonable to think that the improvement in efficiencies from having sold those 19 ships, that the expense per unit savings from that would more than offset the inflation piece, which the inflation piece may be recurring, but whereas all the other sort of restart and the pause status, all of those expenses. ?Once those are gone, is it reasonable to think that your -- that the savings from the less efficient ships being gone would more than offset any inflation?

好的。明白了。然後就我的另一個問題而言，您對費用的評論非常有幫助，考慮到 2022 年有一些非經常性僱傭的事情，您說其中大部分不會在 23 年再次發生。而且我意識到現在給出 2023 年的費用指導數字還為時過早。但是認為出售這 19 艘船所帶來的效率提高是否合理，並且由此節省的單位費用將超過抵消通貨膨脹部分，通貨膨脹部分可能會重複發生，但是所有其他類型的重新啟動和暫停狀態，所有這些費用。 ？一旦這些都消失了，是否有理由認為您的 - 效率較低的船舶消失所節省的成本將超過任何通貨膨脹？

Robin, thanks for the question and happy holidays to you. Obviously, we can't forecast what inflation is going to be and all that, and I know you understand that. But what we can tell you is that exiting the ships and the other efficiencies that we are managing, too, as I said in my opening comments, put us in a fundamentally lower cost basis. And we'll have to see what happens with inflation and so on.

羅賓，謝謝你的提問，祝你節日快樂。顯然，我們無法預測通貨膨脹將會是什麼，我知道你明白這一點。但我們可以告訴你的是，正如我在開場評論中所說，退出船舶和我們正在管理的其他效率，使我們的成本從根本上降低。我們必須看看通貨膨脹等等會發生什麼。

But clearly, whatever revenue we're able to generate and prices look strong now, more of it will fall to the bottom line because of that. But I wouldn't want to try to predict inflation or anything, but we know we're coming out leaner and more efficient, and we'll be better positioned. And we're expecting to be in a position to deliver more EBITDA in '23 than we did in '19.

但很明顯，無論我們能夠產生什麼收入並且價格現在看起來很強勁，更多的收入將因此而跌入底線。但我不想嘗試預測通貨膨脹或其他任何事情，但我們知道我們正在變得更精簡、更有效率，而且我們將處於更好的位置。我們預計 23 年的 EBITDA 將比 19 年更多。

Our next question comes from Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星的 Jaime Katz。

First, I would like hear a little bit about the timing of marketing spend over the course of the next year. My guess is that it might be more front-end loaded, given the uncertainty around the first half. And then if you have any comments on the supply chain and what you guys are seeing from a procurement perspective, it would be very interesting to hear that, given all of the publicity around such issues in the news.

首先，我想了解一下明年營銷支出的時間安排。我的猜測是，考慮到上半年的不確定性，它可能會更多地加載前端。然後，如果您對供應鏈以及你們從採購的角度所看到的有任何評論，鑑於新聞中圍繞此類問題的所有宣傳，聽到這些將是非常有趣的。

Okay. Sure. On the marketing spend, first of all, again, we're very pleased with the results we've been able to enjoy, especially with the Carnival brand, where the itineraries are more comparable to what they normally would be, pre-COVID, without any advertising are very limited. So as we get ready for wave, we are launching campaigns across the brands in anticipation of wave, still less spend than we had, say, in previous years pre-COVID but a significant ramp-up from where we are.

好的。當然。在營銷支出方面，首先，我們對能夠享受到的結果感到非常滿意，尤其是嘉年華品牌，其行程與通常情況下的行程更具可比性，在 COVID 之前，沒有任何廣告是非常有限的。因此，當我們為浪潮做好準備時，我們正在跨品牌發起活動以期待浪潮，儘管支出仍然比我們在前幾年 COVID 之前的支出要少，但與我們所處的位置相比有了顯著的增長。

And we're being very diligent as part of the efficiencies we talked about and looking at how to effect that spend for the greatest impact. So we've gotten more efficient in the spend, we believe, as well. So we are starting to ramp up. But again, the full fleet won't be sailing until sometime in the spring or whatever, obviously, we're looking for bookings now in the second half of '22 and beyond. So a lot of spendings with that. But we'll ramp up and judge as we go what seems to make the most sense and what's really going to drive guest behavior.

作為我們討論的效率的一部分，我們非常勤奮，並研究如何影響支出以產生最大的影響。因此，我們也相信，我們的支出效率更高。所以我們開始加速。但同樣，整個船隊要到春天的某個時候或其他什麼時候才會啟航，顯然，我們現在正在尋找 22 年下半年及以後的預訂。所以花了很多錢。但我們會在進行過程中加大力度並判斷哪些似乎最有意義，哪些真正會推動客人的行為。

In terms of the supply chain and sourcing question, we're global. We source from all over the world. There's lots of dynamics everywhere. We've had single challenges, issue challenges at times with provisions or procuring, particularly services in a particular area. But overall, we are able to sail in a great way for the guests, where the guests are having a great time, in a way that is compliant and very much in the best interest of public health. And so we've been able to manage through. Any other color you want to add, David, on either point?

在供應鍊和採購問題方面，我們是全球性的。我們從世界各地採購。到處都有很多動態。我們遇到過單一的挑戰，有時會在供應或採購方面遇到挑戰，尤其是在特定領域的服務。但總的來說，我們能夠以一種合規且非常符合公眾健康最佳利益的方式為客人航行，讓客人度過愉快的時光。所以我們已經能夠度過難關。大衛，你想在任何一點上添加其他顏色嗎？

No, I think you hit the points well. I just did want to add one point. I was on mute, I apologize when Robin asked the question about the cost. I just wanted to point out to everybody that by the time we get to 2023, remember, there's 4 years of inflation there between '23 and 2019. So just keep that in mind, in addition to the other comments that Arnold made about costs for 2023.

不，我認為你打的很好。我只是想補充一點。我是靜音的，當羅賓問及費用問題時，我道歉。我只是想向大家指出，到 2023 年，請記住，從 23 年到 2019 年之間會有 4 年的通貨膨脹。所以請記住這一點，除了阿諾德關於成本的其他評論之外2023 年。

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

Great. I wonder if you can just help me clarify sort of apples-to-apples on your commentary on bookings. And you said advanced bookings for the second half of '22 and the first half of '23 are now at the higher end of historical ranges. Previously, of course, you had just talked about the second half of next year. When you're talking about the advanced bookings for second half of '22 and the first half of '23, is that a combined '22 and '23 together? Or is that for both periods separately? I'm just trying to apples-to-apples to what you said, just the single period last time. Does that make sense?

偉大的。我想知道您是否可以幫我澄清一下您對預訂的評論。你說 22 年下半年和 23 年上半年的提前預訂現在處於歷史範圍的高端。當然，之前你剛剛談到了明年下半年。當您談論 22 年下半年和 23 年上半年的提前預訂時，是 22 年和 23 年的組合嗎？還是兩個時期分開？我只是想與你所說的完全一致，只是上次的一個時期。那有意義嗎？

Go ahead, David. Go ahead.

去吧，大衛。前進。

Yes. So when we -- well, the reason we labeled the period separately is because we looked at each individually and each one was at the higher end of the historical range individually.

是的。因此，當我們 - 好吧，我們單獨標記該時期的原因是因為我們單獨查看了每個時期，並且每個時期都單獨處於歷史範圍的高端。

Okay. And then -- okay. So we're going to look individually, I want to be clear here. Apples-to-apples, you had said previously, back half of next year was at a new historical high, meaning historical high, but now it's at the higher end. Would that -- is it fair to assume that it's not -- those bookings for the second half of next year are not quite as high as you had said last quarter? Am I interpreting that correctly?

好的。然後——好的。所以我們要單獨看，我想在這裡說清楚。蘋果對蘋果，你之前說過，明年下半年是一個新的歷史高點，也就是歷史高點，但現在是高端。那是否 - 假設它不是 - 明年下半年的預訂量沒有你上個季度所說的那麼高？我的解釋正確嗎？

Yes. You were interpreting that correctly. But by the way, nobody really wants to be breaking new records on the advanced booking curve, because if you want to properly -- the goal is to maximize the pricing and maximize the revenue when the ship sails. So historically, if you're in that great a book position, it's time to raise price, slow down the booking curve. You don't need to be that far ahead.

是的。您正確地解釋了這一點。但順便說一句，沒有人真的想在提前預訂曲線上打破新記錄，因為如果你想正確——目標是在船舶航行時最大化定價和最大化收入。因此，從歷史上看，如果您處於圖書位置那麼好，是時候提高價格，放慢預訂曲線了。你不需要走那麼遠。

If I told you that we were sold out for the back half of 2022, at this moment in time, you'd tell me we didn't manage it properly. We left money on the table. So it's not shocking that we pulled back a little bit, and we raised price, and you saw a slowdown in the booking trends.

如果我告訴你，我們在 2022 年下半年售罄，此時此刻，你會告訴我我們沒有妥善管理它。我們把錢留在了桌子上。因此，我們有所回落並提高價格並不令人震驚，您看到預訂趨勢放緩。

Fair enough. I appreciate the color on that.

很公平。我很欣賞它的顏色。

Our next question comes from Ben Chaiken with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ben Chaiken。

Another apples-to-apples question. Does this -- forgive me, does this -- when you guys give the forward commentary on pricing, does this adjust for the 19 ships removed? Or is it just a gross bookings versus gross bookings previously? If that didn't make sense, I can try to do it offline. Meaning does that capture the mix shift, I guess. Or not?

另一個蘋果對蘋果的問題。這是否——請原諒我，是否——當你們對定價做出前瞻性評論時，這是否會針對移除的 19 艘船進行調整？還是只是總預訂量與之前的總預訂量？如果這沒有意義，我可以嘗試離線進行。我猜這意味著這是否能捕捉到混合變化。或不？

Yes. So essentially, we're just looking at the fleet in 2019 that existed in all of the bookings. And so we don't subtract out ships that left the fleet. We're not doing consistently. We're doing today's fleet versus the fleet we had for 2019 sailings. So yes, there is some benefit to -- as Arnold said, the newer ships will get a better price point, better mix of cabins and other things. And so that is benefiting the price over time, and they're also more cost efficient, and they generate significantly more EBITDA as well. So you're seeing all of that flow through in the booking trends and ultimately, flow through to the cash flow and P&L.

是的。所以本質上，我們只是在查看所有預訂中存在的 2019 年機隊。所以我們不會減去離開艦隊的船隻。我們並沒有始終如一地做。我們正在做今天的船隊與我們 2019 年航行的船隊。所以是的，有一些好處 - 正如阿諾德所說，新船將獲得更好的價格點，更好的客艙組合和其他東西。因此，隨著時間的推移，這對價格有利，而且它們也更具成本效益，而且它們也產生了更多的 EBITDA。因此，您會在預訂趨勢中看到所有這些流向，並最終流向現金流和損益表。

The other thing, another variable there, another variable are itineraries and so we don't adjust itineraries either. And certain itineraries are more higher yielding than others and so on and so forth. But those are normal variances that happen year-to-year.

另一件事，另一個變量，另一個變量是行程，所以我們也不調整行程。某些行程的收益比其他行程更高，依此類推。但這些都是每年都會發生的正常差異。

Got you. That totally makes sense. And then I guess just one other. You guys mentioned several times, bundled packages. I guess, are you seeing -- I know we're kind of early in the return to cruise, but are you seeing passengers have an additional wallet on onboard as well? Like are there incremental opportunities to spend?

得到你。這完全有道理。然後我猜只是另一個。你們多次提到，捆綁包。我想，你看到了嗎——我知道我們回到郵輪的時間還早，但你看到乘客在船上還有一個額外的錢包嗎？比如有增加消費的機會嗎？

Absolutely. We're seeing higher spending levels on board. There's no question about that. In some cases, bundling is contributing to that. We've always done -- each brand is different. And over time, there's always been some bundling. There seems to be even more of it currently than there has been in the past. And it appears that when you have these bundled packages that overall, you end up getting a greater yield because there's additional spend. But right now, there's also, I'm sure, just this pent-up demand where people are anxious to go out and experience things and have a good time and that's also showing up on board revenues right now, which are very strong.

絕對地。我們看到船上的支出水平更高。毫無疑問。在某些情況下，捆綁有助於實現這一點。我們一直這樣做——每個品牌都是不同的。隨著時間的推移，總是有一些捆綁。目前似乎比過去更多。看來，當您擁有這些捆綁包時，您最終會獲得更大的收益，因為有額外的支出。但現在，我敢肯定，還有一種被壓抑的需求，人們急於出去體驗事物並享受美好時光，這也體現在目前非常強勁的董事會收入中。

Next question comes from Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

下一個問題來自 Infinity Research 的 Assia Georgieva。

I have a couple of questions. Arnold, you mentioned in the prepared remarks that the Carnival brand is already at 90% occupancy, which is fantastic news. Given that we have the restart date for all the ships at this point, they're pretty much fixed. So we can be hopeful that there might be upside from higher occupancy levels? Should we think that the Princess might be the next brand that is getting to levels somewhat closer to the Carnival brand and possibly, Costa? Is that a fair way to look at it? Can I get my hopes up for occupancy?

我有一些問題。阿諾德，你在準備好的評論中提到嘉年華品牌已經有 90% 的入住率，這是個好消息。鑑於此時我們有所有船隻的重啟日期，它們幾乎是固定的。所以我們可以希望更高的入住率可能會帶來好處？我們是否應該認為 Princess 可能是下一個接近 Carnival 品牌甚至可能是 Costa 的品牌？這是一個公平的看待它的方式嗎？我可以寄希望於入住嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I think, first of all, we've had a number of ships on the Carnival brand on a 100% occupancy and the trend there is very good. But again, those itineraries are most comparable to the itineraries that existed, pre-COVID. And so you have very some itinerary, some going on in just great execution by the Carnival team.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我認為，首先，我們已經有許多嘉年華品牌的船隻達到 100% 的佔用率，而且趨勢非常好。但同樣，這些行程與 COVID 之前存在的行程最具可比性。因此，您有一些行程，其中一些行程由嘉年華團隊進行了出色的執行。

In terms of which brand is next, that's pretty complicated. As we bring ships back, we don't bring them back right away anywhere near 100% occupancy. And so you have to look at the proportion of ships returning to service and when they return to service. And then you have to look at the itineraries. We also have different protocols around the world. We have a number of European sailings that still have social distancing or physical distancing requirements and that caps the occupancy in the 60% to 80% range, depending on itinerary in the ship and so on. So there are a lot of variables here, and we just have to see what the situation is around the speed of ramp-up and what the required protocols are and which itineraries we're going to be able to bring the ships back into.

至於下一個是哪個品牌，那是相當複雜的。當我們將船隻帶回來時，我們不會立即將它們帶回接近 100% 的佔用率。因此，您必須查看恢復服務的船舶比例以及恢復服務的時間。然後你必須看看行程。我們在世界各地也有不同的協議。我們有許多歐洲航行仍然有社交距離或身體距離要求，並且根據船上的行程等，將佔用率限制在 60% 到 80% 的範圍內。所以這裡有很多變數，我們只需要看看加速速度的情況如何，所需的協議是什麼，以及我們將能夠將船隻帶回哪些航線。

With the plans we have, we can kind of predict, but this is a very dynamic situation and has been. Our team has been really able to adapt to it and execute well. Overall, the trend is positive and the brands will get to where they need to be, given their particular circumstances, but the trajectory, overall trajectory despite the fits and the stops and the speed bumps and pot holes and so on and so forth and detours, the overall trajectory is positive.

有了我們的計劃，我們可以進行預測，但這是一個非常動態的情況，而且一直如此。我們的團隊真的能夠適應它並很好地執行。總體而言，趨勢是積極的，品牌將到達他們需要的地方，考慮到他們的特殊情況，但軌跡，整體軌跡，儘管有斷斷續續，減速帶和坑洞等等等等，還有彎路，總體軌跡為正。

You gave me such a great segue into my second question because you mentioned itineraries probably 3 or 4 times. And I understand that Australia and New Zealand has basically been closed for the winter season. Coral Princess couldn't do her long voyage this summer, I think, partly because of Australia and New Zealand being such an uncertain embarkation point at this point. And then referencing again, itineraries and the new LNG ships coming in, Costa Diadema had to replace Costa Smeralda in South America, because we don't have enough access to -- or reliable access to LNG facilities. Would you -- given that you're the only cruise company, a large cruise company that is operating LNG ships, would you have to participate in building out the infrastructure at places such as Brazil, for example?

你對我的第二個問題給出了很好的解釋，因為你可能提到了 3 或 4 次行程。而且據我了解，澳大利亞和新西蘭基本上已經過冬了。我認為，珊瑚公主號今年夏天無法完成她的長途航行，部分原因是澳大利亞和新西蘭目前是一個不確定的登船點。然後再次參考行程和新的液化天然氣船，Costa Diadema 不得不取代南美的 Costa Smeralda，因為我們沒有足夠的通道或可靠的液化天然氣設施。鑑於您是唯一一家郵輪公司，一家經營液化天然氣船的大型郵輪公司，您是否必須參與巴西等地的基礎設施建設？

Yes. I think we have a strong partnership with Royal Dutch Shell in terms of LNG infrastructure access, et cetera. And then obviously, we go beyond that relationship to secure what we need. But if -- when we built the first ship, when we started building it, there was no infrastructure. And so we made a commitment early because of our commitment on the environmental front. And now we're very excited to have the 6 ships with another 5 coming. So again, you may have to adjust in the moment here or there or whatever. But overall, what we see, a clear line of sight on the infrastructure to support good yielding itineraries that are exciting for our guests with our LNG-powered ships. And then if absolutely necessary, the ships can use alternative fuel source, obviously, but our intention and purposes because we built them as LNG-powered ships to use LNG.

是的。我認為我們在液化天然氣基礎設施接入等方面與荷蘭皇家殼牌公司建立了牢固的合作夥伴關係。然後很明顯，我們超越了這種關係來確保我們需要的東西。但是如果——當我們建造第一艘船時，當我們開始建造它時，沒有基礎設施。因此，由於我們在環境方面的承諾，我們很早就做出了承諾。現在我們很高興有 6 艘船，另外 5 艘即將到來。再說一次，您可能需要在這里或那里或其他任何地方進行調整。但總體而言，我們所看到的基礎設施清晰可見，以支持良好的收益行程，這對我們的液化天然氣動力船舶的客人來說是令人興奮的。然後，如果絕對必要，這些船顯然可以使用替代燃料來源，但我們的意圖和目的是因為我們將它們建造為 LNG 動力船以使用 LNG。

So would you need to participate further -- I'm sorry.

那麼您是否需要進一步參與——我很抱歉。

Go ahead, your follow-up. Do we have to participate and help fund or something the establishment of the infrastructure? We don't anticipate having to put capital in ourselves to help establish the infrastructure. We don't. We think there are plenty of players in that part of the business to do that. Timing may be a little off here or there, but we don't see a need at this point for us to commit our capital to building LNG infrastructure in ports.

來吧，你的後續行動。我們是否必須參與並幫助資助或建立基礎設施？我們預計不必自己投入資金來幫助建立基礎設施。我們沒有。我們認為在這部分業務中有很多參與者可以做到這一點。時間可能在這里或那裡有點偏差，但我們認為目前沒有必要投入資金在港口建設液化天然氣基礎設施。

Okay. Great. And I'm really glad you've made such a commitment to a cleaner environment. So I appreciate that. A great holiday season from me as well.

好的。偉大的。我真的很高興你對更清潔的環境做出了這樣的承諾。所以我很感激。我也度過了一個美好的假期。

Our next question comes from Paul Golding with Macquarie Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自麥格理資本的 Paul Golding。

So I had a quick question on just structural evolution of the marketplace. David, I think you had mentioned earlier about the mix shift increasing a bit sequentially towards higher-end state room mix. And I'm wondering if that's something beyond the current order book you're looking to do more long term because you see higher propensity? The spend, should we expect as far as thinking once we're in a clear yield environment, should we expect just continued increase in higher-end state room mix? And then I have a follow-up on inflation.

所以我有一個關於市場結構演變的快速問題。大衛，我想你之前提到過混合轉變向更高端的狀態房間混合逐漸增加。而且我想知道這是否超出了您希望做更長期的當前訂單，因為您看到更高的傾向？一旦我們處於明確的收益環境中，我們是否應該預期支出，我們是否應該預期高端客房組合會繼續增加？然後我對通貨膨脹進行了跟進。

Sure. So I think what Arnold in his prepared remarks talked about, I think it was 5 percentage points higher, 5 or 6 percentage points higher balcony cabins and so the mix of balconies that's in our fleet in the future is higher than the mix historically. A lot of that has to do with the way in which we built ships and the designer ships. We've been able to get effectively more balcony cabins on each and every ship, which will hopefully, we believe, will drive yields and satisfaction levels of our guests.

當然。所以我認為阿諾德在他準備好的講話中談到的，我認為它高出 5 個百分點，陽台小屋高出 5 或 6 個百分點，因此未來我們機隊中的陽台組合高於歷史上的組合。這在很大程度上與我們建造船隻和設計船隻的方式有關。我們已經能夠在每艘船上有效地獲得更多的陽台客艙，我們相信，這將有望提高我們的客人的產量和滿意度。

I don't think you're going to see -- for the ships we have on order through 2025, it's all well set. We're beginning to start thinking about future new builds and we'll analyze that based off of customer trends and desires. And we'll work those into the plans and you can be sure we'll be thinking about that and making sure that we optimize our return on invested capital over time as a result of what we do.

我不認為你會看到——對於我們在 2025 年之前訂購的船，一切都準備好了。我們開始考慮未來的新版本，我們將根據客戶趨勢和需求進行分析。我們會將這些納入計劃，您可以確定我們會考慮這一點，並確保我們隨著時間的推移優化我們的投資資本回報率。

Great. And then on the cost side, as we think about your commentary on inflation, your thoughts on 2022 fuel cost. Should we start thinking more about whether hedging is going to play a role here again for your team versus what was previously not a robust hedging program on your side in the fuel space?

偉大的。然後在成本方面，當我們考慮您對通貨膨脹的評論時，您對 2022 年燃料成本的看法。我們是否應該開始更多地考慮對沖是否會再次為您的團隊發揮作用，而不是以前在燃料領域對您而言不是一個強大的對沖計劃？

We historically haven't hedged. And at this point in time, if that changes, we'll let you know. But historically, we haven't had -- we have felt that over time, that all takes care of itself, and we have some natural hedges with the portfolio we have and revenues and costs in different currencies around. Well, I know you're talking about fuel price hedging. But I'm just -- other than that, we really typically don't hedge.

我們歷史上沒有對沖。目前，如果情況發生變化，我們會通知您。但從歷史上看，我們沒有——我們覺得隨著時間的推移，一切都會自行解決，我們對我們擁有的投資組合以及不同貨幣的收入和成本進行了一些自然的對沖。好吧，我知道你說的是燃油價格對沖。但我只是——除此之外，我們通常不會對沖。

And other than the LNG, nothing meaningful on mix shift between bunker and MGO and going into the operating here?

除了液化天然氣，燃料和 MGO 之間的混合轉換並進入這裡的運營沒有任何意義嗎？

There's no question that over time, we'll see a lower ratio of MGO, given the fact we're bringing in LNG, and we have advanced air quality systems on the ships, et cetera. So the combination of LNG and extended use of [advanced] air quality systems, we should see a lowering of the requirements on MGO as we go forward. David, do you want to add any additional color?

毫無疑問，隨著時間的推移，我們會看到 MGO 的比例會降低，因為我們正在引進液化天然氣，而且我們在船上擁有先進的空氣質量系統等等。因此，液化天然氣和 [先進] 空氣質量系統的擴展使用相結合，我們應該會看到隨著我們的前進而降低對 MGO 的要求。大衛，你想添加任何額外的顏色嗎？

No, I think that does it well. My blended fuel average for '22 reflected probably a 10-point drop in the NGL mix from '21 to '22.

不，我認為這樣做很好。我在 22 年的混合燃料平均值反映了從 21 年到 22 年 NGL 混合物可能下降了 10 個百分點。

Our next question comes from [Ben Siefel] with [Dublin Research].

我們的下一個問題來自 [Ben Siefel] 和 [Dublin Research]。

I wanted to follow up on occupancy. I think you mentioned that August was about 59%. So it looks like it's pretty stable throughout your fiscal 4Q. I definitely appreciate that it's a dynamic situation that you alluded to. But how are you thinking about that occupancy build throughout 2022? Do you anticipate it's more linear or more inflecting in the second half? Kind of what's built into the budget as it relates to your profitability assumptions?

我想跟進入住情況。我想你提到八月份大約是 59%。所以看起來它在整個第四財季都很穩定。我非常感謝您提到的動態情況。但是您如何看待整個 2022 年的入住率增長？你預計下半場會更加線性還是更加曲折？與您的盈利能力假設相關的預算中包含哪些內容？

So I'll start just with an overall comment that clearly, the occupancy trend is really positive. Now when you look at the -- that comparison you just made, there are a lot of dynamics in that. For example, we brought on, as David mentioned, I think, in some of his comments, 22 ships or something. And obviously, when you bring the ships on, they're not initially at full occupancy. That's on purpose as we bring them in. And so that averages down your occupancy. So what we're looking at overall for occupancy trends or where you have comparable itineraries and ships that have been sailing for a while, what's happening with the occupancy on those ships. And that's a very positive message. So you have a number of things weighting those occupancy numbers. David?

因此，我將從總體評論開始，很明顯，入住率趨勢非常積極。現在，當您查看剛剛進行的比較時，其中有很多動態。例如，正如大衛提到的，我認為，在他的一些評論中，我們引入了 22 艘船或其他東西。很明顯，當你把船開上來時，它們最初並沒有滿員。這是我們把他們帶進來的目的。這樣平均下來你的入住率。因此，我們總體上關注的是入住率趨勢，或者您有類似的行程和已經航行了一段時間的船隻，這些船隻的入住率正在發生什麼。這是一個非常積極的信息。所以你有很多東西來衡量這些入住人數。大衛？

Yes. So the other thing, keep in mind that affected the fourth quarter, was the Delta variant in the month of August impacted bookings, many of which might have been for the fourth quarter. And as a result of that, we had hoped to have higher occupancy in the fourth quarter. But between the Delta variants and everything else and a few itinerary changes that we had, we were very pleased with the overall 59%.

是的。因此，請記住，影響第四季度的另一件事是 8 月份的 Delta 變體影響了預訂，其中許多可能是第四季度的。因此，我們曾希望在第四季度有更高的入住率。但是在 Delta 變體和其他一切以及我們所做的一些行程更改之間，我們對 59% 的整體感到非常滿意。

Looking forward, I will say it's very difficult to predict exactly by month or by quarter what the occupancy is going to be. We're in a good book position. And we're expecting overall the trend to be positive and to see increasing occupancies throughout 2022, but I think it'd be premature for us to give some sort of guidance.

展望未來，我會說很難按月或按季度準確預測入住率。我們處於良好的書籍位置。我們預計總體趨勢是積極的，並且整個 2022 年的入住率都會增加，但我認為現在給出某種指導還為時過早。

Okay. Operator, we have time for one more question.

好的。接線員，我們有時間再問一個問題。

We have a question from Ryan Sundby with William Blair.

我們有一個來自 Ryan Sundby 和 William Blair 的問題。

I have a question around operating procedures. It feels like proof of activation and net year touch results have been a really effective tool for the industry to lean on here. I guess given more breakthrough cases really around -- all live experiences in the past month or so, is that still an effective tool going forward? And when do you need to start considering acquiring a booster, which I think a market like France is now requiring?

我有一個關於操作程序的問題。感覺激活證明和淨年度接觸結果一直是該行業賴以生存的真正有效工具。我想考慮到更多的突破性案例——過去一個月左右的所有現場體驗，這仍然是一個有效的工具嗎？你什麼時候需要開始考慮購買助推器，我認為像法國這樣的市場現在需要這個？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I think overall, we continue to be informed by, again, the scientists around the world, medical experts. And of course, we continue to act in compliance with whatever the rules are in the destinations and home ports that we're operating. But the bottom line is that this is a dynamic situation in the markets where we are requiring vaccine, requiring testing everywhere. We require vaccines in most places. And we're encouraging boosters. Of course, our crew is vaccinated and over 10,000 of them have already received boosters and we'll be continuing with that. They are tested very frequently, the crew is.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我認為總的來說，我們繼續從世界各地的科學家、醫學專家那裡獲得信息。當然，我們將繼續遵守我們運營的目的地和母港的任何規則。但最重要的是，在我們需要疫苗的市場中，這是一個動態的情況，需要在任何地方進行測試。我們在大多數地方都需要疫苗。我們正在鼓勵助推器。當然，我們的工作人員已經接種了疫苗，其中超過 10,000 人已經接種了助推器，我們將繼續這樣做。他們經常接受測試，工作人員是。

And then those protocols have worked and have helped us be amongst the safest forms, as I mentioned before, of socializing and travel of any in the travel and leisure sector. So they have worked and they are continuing to work. So we'll see how it plays out. We'll follow the science, and obviously, we'll be in compliance. But right now, we are sailing with confidence. As you noted, there are going to be some cases. There's a far lower incidence of cases right now on cruise and at society at large, and we want to work to continue to ensure that that's the case. And when there are cases, the risk of propagation or spread of the virus has been very effectively controlled to date. And as long as that continues to be the case, we'll continue to sail with confidence. But we'll adjust and adapt to what we need to.

然後，這些協議已經奏效，並幫助我們成為最安全的形式之一，正如我之前提到的，在旅行和休閒領域的任何人的社交和旅行。所以他們一直在工作，而且還在繼續工作。所以我們將看看它是如何發揮作用的。我們將遵循科學，顯然，我們將遵守。但現在，我們充滿信心地航行。正如你所指出的，會有一些情況。目前，郵輪上和整個社會的病例發生率要低得多，我們希望繼續努力確保情況如此。當出現病例時，迄今為止，病毒傳播或傳播的風險得到了非常有效的控制。只要情況繼續如此，我們將繼續充滿信心地航行。但我們會調整併適應我們需要的。

I think the most important thing is where we have had cases. In most instances, they're either asymptomatic are minor symptoms. We have not had lots of cases where people have to be hospitalized or worse. And I think that's important, and that's also increasing trend in society at large. And hopefully, that trend will continue. Other question? Sorry, that was the last question?

我認為最重要的是我們有病例的地方。在大多數情況下，它們要么是無症狀的，要么是輕微的症狀。我們沒有很多病例需要住院或更糟。我認為這很重要，這也是整個社會日益增長的趨勢。希望這種趨勢將繼續下去。其他問題？抱歉，這是最後一個問題？

That was the last question.

那是最後一個問題。

Okay. Look, everyone, thank you. I really appreciate your engagement. Please have a safe and joyful holiday and we look forward to talking to you guys at the next business update. So thank you very much.

好的。大家看看，謝謝。我非常感謝你的參與。請度過一個安全快樂的假期，我們期待在下一次業務更新中與你們交談。所以非常感謝。

Happy Holidays, everyone.

祝大家節日快樂。

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。祝大家有個美好的一天。