嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. This is Josh Weinstein. Welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined today by our Chair, Micky Arison; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Beth Roberts.

早安.這是喬許·韋恩斯坦。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天我們的主席 Micky Arison 也加入了我的行列。我們的財務長大衛·伯恩斯坦；以及我們的投資者關係資深副總裁貝絲‧羅伯茲 (Beth Roberts)。

Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

在開始之前，請注意，我們在本次電話會議上的一些評論將具有前瞻性。因此，我將向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。

Another quarter and another set of milestones and records. This quarter, we reached net income well in excess of $1 billion and EBITDA well over $2 billion. We also achieved revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income that all exceeded the high end of our June guidance range with constant currency, adjusted cruise costs in line with expectations.

又一個季度和另一組里程碑和記錄。本季度，我們的淨利潤遠超過 10 億美元，EBITDA 遠超過 20 億美元。我們還實現了收入、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後淨利潤，均超過了我們 6 月份按固定匯率計算的指導範圍的上限，調整後的郵輪成本符合預期。

Furthermore, customer deposits and booking volumes, both important forward indicators, hit record levels for the third quarter. Thanks to the efforts of our amazing team, ship and shore, we exceeded the midpoint of our adjusted net income guidance by $175 million this quarter. The outperformance was driven by strength in demand for our brands, with both our North American and European segments equally outperforming expectations. The result was yields that were higher than anticipated that exceeded 2019's strong levels and that reached an all-time high.

此外，客戶存款和預訂量這兩個重要的前瞻性指標在第三季創下了歷史新高。感謝我們出色的團隊、船舶和岸上的努力，本季我們超出了調整後淨利潤指引的中點 1.75 億美元。這一出色表現是由我們品牌的需求強勁推動的，我們的北美和歐洲市場同樣超出了預期。結果是收益率高於預期，超過 2019 年的強勁水平，並達到歷史新高。

On the European front, occupancy came in better than anticipated for Costa and AIDA, with both brands hitting 119% occupancy in August. Not to be outdone, P&O Cruises achieved its highest occupancy in over a decade, despite a 40% capacity increase from 2019. And as for pricing, our third quarter per diems were 5 points higher than 2019, also hitting record levels and more than overcoming the absence of St. Petersburg, which was among our highest-yielding itineraries and weighted to the third quarter.

在歐洲方面，Costa 和 AIDA 的入住率優於預期，兩個品牌在 8 月的入住率均達到 119%。 P&O Cruises 也不甘示弱，儘管運力較2019 年增加了40%，但仍實現了十多年來的最高入住率。至於定價，我們第三季度的每日津貼比2019 年高出5 個百分點，也創下了歷史新高，超越了聖彼得堡缺席，這是我們收益最高的行程之一，並加權到第三季。

Normalizing for this impact, we estimate per diem growth would have been up about 7 points, which is consistent with each of the first 2 quarters and our upwardly revised fourth quarter guidance, which David will elaborate on. Essentially, we've consistently been delivering pricing well in excess of 2019 levels, while closing the occupancy gap by 11 points over the course of the year.

將此影響正常化後，我們估計日均成長率將上升約 7 個百分點，這與前兩個季度和我們上調的第四季度指導一致，大衛將對此進行詳細說明。從本質上講，我們的定價一直遠高於 2019 年的水平，同時在這一年中將入住率差距縮小了 11 個百分點。

Continued strength in demand has allowed us to take up our expectations for full year per diems by a full point. This is a meaningful accomplishment given how much of fiscal 2023 was already behind us. At the same time, we're working to stay within our narrowed cost guidance range while managing down interest expense as we accelerate our deleveraging plans.

需求的持續強勁使我們能夠將全年每日津貼的預期提高一個百分點。考慮到 2023 財年的大部分時間已經過去，這是一項有意義的成就。同時，我們正在努力保持在縮小的成本指導範圍內，同時在加快去槓桿計劃的同時控制利息支出。

The higher revenue alone more than offset the recent spike in fuel prices, which is currently forecasted to step up by 20% heading into our fourth quarter. I would note but while we've experienced volatility in fuel prices before, there's only been one other period in the last 15 years that our fuel price has reached this level. In this case, changes in fuel prices and FX rates combined are a $130 million drag compared to June guidance and masked much of our significant underlying business improvement that is delivering an additional $200 million plus to the bottom line for the second half of the year.

光是收入的增加就足以抵銷近期燃油價格的飆升，目前預計第四季燃油價格將上漲 20%。我想指出的是，雖然我們之前也經歷過燃油價格的波動，但在過去 15 年中，我們的燃油價格只有一個時期達到這一水平。在這種情況下，與6 月的指引相比，燃油價格和匯率的變化合計造成了1.3 億美元的拖累，並掩蓋了我們顯著的基本業務改善，而這些改善為下半年的利潤帶來了額外的2 億美元以上。

As a result, we still expect our 2023 adjusted EBITDA to be $4.1 billion or more, which is well within our prior guidance range, and we're raising our net income expectations for the year. As I've done in the past, to give you a sense of how we're faring operationally without noise from fuel price or currency rates and without the benefit of increased capacity, I'll share our EBITDA per ALBD progress holding fuel price and currency constant to 2019 levels.

因此，我們仍然預計 2023 年調整後 EBITDA 為 41 億美元或更多，這完全在我們之前的指導範圍內，並且我們正在提高今年的淨利潤預期。正如我過去所做的那樣，為了讓您了解我們在沒有燃油價格或匯率噪音以及沒有增加運力的好處的情況下的運營情況，我將分享我們在保持燃油價格和 ALBD 進度的情況下的 EBITDA。匯率維持在2019 年水準不變。

We reached 59% of 2019 levels in the first quarter, 73% in the second quarter, 90% in the third quarter, which was better than the 85% we expected, and we're striving to hit 2019 levels in the fourth quarter. Of course, in reality, we're not ignoring the impact fuel is having on our business. In fact, it's been a focus for years. We continue to work aggressively to manage fuel costs the best way possible by consuming less.

我們第一季達到了2019年水準的59%，第二季達到了73%，第三季達到了90%，比我們預期的85%要好，我們力爭第四季達到2019年的水準。當然，實際上，我們並沒有忽視燃料對我們業務的影響。事實上，多年來它一直是人們關注的焦點。我們繼續積極努力，透過減少消耗以最佳方式管理燃料成本。

Heading into 2023, we already had the most fuel-efficient fleet of our public peers by a wide margin, and we're looking to widen that gap. We're on track to achieve a step change reduction in fuel usage and resulting carbon intensity in 2023 with fuel consumption per ALBD nearly 16% lower than 2019 even better than the 15% we had anticipated. I know this is stating the obvious, but not only is this effort benefiting our bottom line by hundreds of millions of dollars, it's also better for the environment and something we'll keep pushing on for 2024 and beyond.

進入 2023 年，我們已經擁有公共同行中燃油效率最高的車隊，遙遙領先，我們正在尋求擴大這一差距。我們預計在 2023 年實現燃料使用量和碳強度的逐步減少，每個 ALBD 的燃料消耗比 2019 年低近 16%，甚至好於我們預期的 15%。我知道這說明了顯而易見的事實，但這項努力不僅使我們的利潤增加了數億美元，而且對環境也更有利，也是我們將在 2024 年及以後繼續推動的事情。

Speaking of '24, I'm still pleased with our revenue trajectory heading into next year. Our brands have been working aggressively to build a strong base of business as we position for further revenue yield improvement next year. We're now significantly ahead of same time last year by about 10 points and well ahead of where we were in 2019.

說到 24 年，我仍然對我們明年的營收軌跡感到滿意。我們的品牌一直在積極努力建立強大的業務基礎，為明年的收入進一步提高做好準備。我們現在比去年同期大幅領先約 10 個百分點，也遠遠領先 2019 年的水準。

In fact, we already have less inventory remaining for sale at the same time last year despite 5% more capacity and sailing with occupancy at historical levels. Our booked position is as far out as we've ever seen it. With our European brands booking curve now essentially back to 2019 levels and our North American brands exceeding historical highs. And importantly, we've been able to achieve this 10-point occupancy advantage at higher ticket prices for the same time last year.

事實上，儘管運力增加了 5%，並且航行時的入住率達到歷史水平，但去年同期我們的剩餘待售庫存已經減少。我們預訂的位置是我們見過的最遠的。我們的歐洲品牌預訂曲線現已基本回到 2019 年的水平，而我們的北美品牌則超過歷史高點。重要的是，與去年同期相比，我們以更高的票價實現了 10 點的入住率優勢。

By all accounts, it's a great start to 2024. While we see no signs of demand slowing for our brands, at some point, booking volumes for 2024 will recede as we simply run out of inventory to sell. Now we appreciate there are heightened concerns around the state of the consumer as of late. But the fact is we just haven't seen it in our bookings or our results, and we believe consumers are continuing to prioritize spending on experiences over material goods. And the vacation value we offer will continue to resonate with those seeking more for their vacation dollar.

從各方面來看，這對2024 年來說都是一個好的開始。雖然我們沒有看到我們品牌的需求放緩的跡象，但在某些時候，2024 年的預訂量將會減少，因為我們根本沒有庫存可供銷售。現在，我們意識到最近人們對消費者狀況的擔憂日益加劇。但事實是，我們只是沒有在我們的預訂或結果中看到這一點，我們相信消費者將繼續優先考慮在體驗上的支出，而不是物質產品。我們提供的假期價值將繼續引起那些尋求更多假期費用的人的共鳴。

As you know, we have been leaning into that message given the unprecedented and unwarranted value for land-based vacation alternatives. Further, our revenue base is recurring, with over half our guests being repeat cruisers, is visible with well over 50% of the next 12 months booked at any given time and is predictable with 40% of our onboard revenues now pulled forward by pre-crude sales, which is an 11-point increase over 2019.

如您所知，鑑於陸上度假替代方案具有前所未有的、毫無根據的價值，我們一直在傾向於這一訊息。此外，我們的收入基礎是經常性的，超過一半的客人是重複的遊輪，未來12 個月中超過50% 的人在任何給定時間預訂，這是可見的，並且可以預測，我們的船上收入的40% 現在是由預售拉動的。原油銷量比 2019 年增長 11 個百分點。

How is all this trending by region? Well, North America consistently remains strong with Carnival Cruise Line, our highest returning brand, continuing to outperform. Accordingly, and due to our portfolio optimization efforts, 2/3 of our capacity growth next year is weighted to Carnival Cruise Line. And while our European brands were on a delayed trajectory for reasons we've discussed at length, they are world-class brands in fantastic markets that we are dedicated to for the long term.

按地區劃分，所有這些趨勢如何？北美地區始終保持強勁勢頭，我們回報率最高的品牌嘉年華郵輪繼續表現出色。因此，由於我們的投資組合優化工作，明年我們 2/3 的運力成長將由嘉年華郵輪公司承擔。儘管我們的歐洲品牌由於我們詳細討論過的原因而處於延遲軌道，但它們是我們長期致力於的出色市場中的世界級品牌。

So it is incredibly gratifying to see them impressing so nicely and now keeping pace with the improving trends we've seen for our North America brand. In fact, in Q3, each of our Continental European brands, AIDA and Costa delivered higher yields than 2019, again overcoming the outsized impact they felt from the absence of (inaudible) St. Petersburg.

因此，看到他們如此出色地給人留下深刻印象，現在與我們所看到的北美品牌的改進趨勢保持同步，真是令人難以置信。事實上，在第三季度，我們的每個歐洲大陸品牌 AIDA 和 Costa 的收益率都高於 2019 年，再次克服了聖彼得堡缺席（聽不清楚）帶來的巨大影響。

And finally, there's Australia. I am pleased to say that with the recent lifting of protocols in Australia, like the U.S., they too saw a spike in bookings in response to the great news. Our demand generation efforts are clearly working across all regions. As you can see in our results, our forward guidance, our book position and our booking trends. We are also seeing other positive forward indicators that suggest we're continuing to generate healthy demand.

最後是澳洲。我很高興地說，隨著澳洲最近取消了規定，就像美國一樣，他們也看到了這個好消息帶來的預訂激增。我們的需求挖掘工作顯然在所有地區都發揮了作用。正如您在我們的結果、前瞻性指引、預訂量和預訂趨勢中看到的那樣。我們也看到其他積極的前瞻性指標，顯示我們正在繼續產生健康的需求。

First-time cruisers reached 170% of prior year levels in the third quarter. In fact, we've taken well over 2.5 million guests on their very first cruise so far this year. Web visits are running at 135% of 2019 levels. Paid search is at 150%, and natural search is at 185%. Suffice it to say, all are consistently running at multiples of our capacity growth. The effects of our myriad of commercial enhancement activities will compound over time and our ongoing investments in advertising and lead generation should keep that funnel of demand building.

第三季首次郵輪數量達到去年同期的 170%。事實上，今年迄今為止，我們已經接待了超過 250 萬名客人進行他們的首次巡遊。網路訪問量為 2019 年水準的 135%。付費搜尋為 150%，自然搜尋為 185%。可以說，所有這些都始終以我們產能成長的倍數運作。我們無數的商業增強活動的影響將隨著時間的推移而複合，我們對廣告和潛在客戶開發的持續投資應該保持需求建立的管道。

We're also creating excitement around our new ships and new destinations. This quarter, we welcomed our second ultra-luxury expedition ship Seabourn Pursuit. Pursuit marries the same yacht-like small ship experience Seabourn guests have come to expect with an unparalleled range of expedition activities and expert 24 person expedition team and unique features like custom-built submarines. We are looking forward to showing her off later today at her inaugural stop in Miami.

我們還圍繞著我們的新船和新目的地創造令人興奮的氛圍。本季度，我們迎來了第二艘超豪華探險船 Seabourn Pursuit。 Pursuit 與 Seabourn 賓客所期待的遊艇式小型船體驗相結合，提供無與倫比的探險活動、24 人專家探險團隊以及定制潛艇等獨特功能。我們期待著今天晚些時候在她邁阿密的首站上向她展示。

And we are about to embark on a drumbeat of news around our new destination in Grand Bahama Celebration Key expected in the second half of 2025. Just yesterday, Carnival Cruise Line announced the opening of hundreds of sailings to Celebration Key ultimately across 18 different ships departing from 8 different home ports. You'll have to stay tuned for more details on this amazing destination and the fantastic experiences our guests can expect.

我們即將在2025 年下半年開始圍繞大巴哈馬慶祝島的新目的地發布一系列新聞。就在昨天，嘉年華遊輪公司宣布將開通數百趟前往慶祝島的航班，最終將有18 艘不同的船舶出發。來自 8 個不同的母港。您必須繼續關注有關這個令人驚嘆的目的地的更多詳細資訊以及我們的客人可以期待的奇妙體驗。

But what I can say today is that not only will Celebration Key deliver Carnival's patented brands of Fun, its strategic location close to so many of our home ports is also designed to advance our fuel and carbon reduction efforts. It's truly a win-win-win for the environment, for our guests and for our great hosts, the people of the Bahamas.

但我今天可以說的是，Celebration Key 不僅將提供嘉年華的專利品牌 Fun，其靠近我們許多母港的戰略位置也旨在推進我們的燃油和碳減排工作。對於環境、我們的客人以及我們偉大的東道主巴哈馬人民來說，這確實是三贏。

Turning to the balance sheet. We have been actively managing down our debt and reducing interest expense, with improving performance, positive cash flow and $5.7 billion of liquidity, we anticipate ending the year with debt just under $31 billion, already over $4 billion off the peak and counting. I'll take the opportunity to remind those naysayers that as we stated 6 months ago, this debt reduction happened without issuing incremental equity. That said, we recognize we still have a ways to go to reach investment-grade, leverage metric in 2026. The strong demand we're seeing certainly builds confidence in our return to meaningful free cash flow generation and our reduced newbuild pipeline should amplify that opportunity.

轉向資產負債表。我們一直在積極管理債務並減少利息支出，隨著業績的改善、正現金流和57 億美元的流動性，我們預計到年底債務將略低於310 億美元，比峰值已經超過40 億美元並且還在增加。我將藉此機會提醒那些反對者，正如我們在 6 個月前所說的那樣，這次債務削減是在沒有發行增量股本的情況下進行的。也就是說，我們意識到，要在2026 年達到投資等級槓桿指標，我們還有很長的路要走。我們看到的強勁需求無疑增強了我們對恢復有意義的自由現金流產生的信心，而我們減少的新建管道應該會放大這種信心。機會。

Once again, I attribute the outperformance this quarter to our greatest asset, our people. Our shipboard team members who are consistently exceeding our guests' expectations, our shoreside team that supports the ships, generate strong demand and attract new-to-cruise guests along with our travel agent partners, and of course, support from all of you, our investors, our loyal guests and our many other stakeholders.

我再次將本季的優異表現歸功於我們最大的資產——我們的員工。我們的船上團隊成員不斷超越客人的期望，我們的岸邊團隊為船舶提供支持，產生強勁的需求並吸引新的郵輪客人以及我們的旅行社合作夥伴，當然還有你們所有人的支持，我們的投資者、我們的忠實客人以及我們許多其他的利害關係人。

I think I can speak on behalf of all 160,000 team members when I say that it is a privilege to work at a company whose purpose and mission is to deliver unforgettable happiness to our guests by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sail, place we visit and life we touch. It motivates us to do our jobs well and responsibly and will help us keep our strong momentum as we head into 2024.

我想我可以代表所有160,000 名團隊成員發言，我很榮幸能在一家公司工作，該公司的宗旨和使命是透過為我們的客人提供非凡的郵輪假期，同時尊重每一位員工的誠信，為他們帶來難忘的幸福。我們航行的海洋、我們參觀的地方和我們接觸的生活。它激勵我們以負責任的態度做好工作，並將幫助我們在邁入 2024 年時保持強勁勢頭。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

這樣，我就把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Josh. Before I begin, please note all of my references to ticket prices, net per diems, net yields and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated. I'll start today with a summary of our 2023 third quarter results, then I'll give some color on our 2023 full year September guidance. Next, I will provide a recap of our 2024 cumulative advanced book position, along with a few other things to consider for 2024. And then I will finish up describing our financial position.

謝謝你，喬許。在開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，否則我對票價、每日淨津貼、淨收益和調整後不含燃料的遊輪成本的所有引用均採用固定匯率。今天我將首先總結我們 2023 年第三季的業績，然後我將對 2023 年全年 9 月的指導進行一些說明。接下來，我將回顧我們 2024 年累積的高級帳面狀況，以及 2024 年需要考慮的其他一些事項。然後我將最後描述我們的財務狀況。

As Josh indicated, our third quarter adjusted net income exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by $175 million as we outperformed our June guidance. The improvement was driven by 3 things: first, $90 million of favorability in revenue from higher ticket prices as net per diems were up almost 5%, nearly a point better than the midpoint of our June guidance range, while our brands outperformed on occupancy, achieving 109% for the quarter. In fact, third quarter revenues of $6.9 billion were a record and net yields were once again positive as compared to 2019.

正如 Josh 指出的那樣，我們在第三季調整後的淨利潤超出了我們指導的中點 1.75 億美元，因為我們的表現超出了 6 月的指導。這項改善是由三件事推動的：首先，門票價格上漲帶來了9000 萬美元的有利收入，因為每日津貼淨值增長了近5%，比我們6 月份指導範圍的中點高出近一個百分點，而我們的品牌在入住率方面表現出色，本季實現 109%。事實上，第三季營收達到 69 億美元，創歷史新高，與 2019 年相比，淨收益率再次為正值。

Second, we had $40 million of favorability in net interest expense. A successful refinancing gave us the runway to core $1.2 billion of our highest cost debt, and we prepaid an additional $1.1 billion of debt, which reduced interest expense during the quarter. Additionally, we had $900 million of customer deposit reserves returned to the company during the quarter, generating additional interest income and higher overall interest income rate than forecasted also contributed to this favorability. And third, $45 million of favorability in fuel consumption, depreciation and income taxes drove this final piece.

其次，我們在淨利息支出方面有 4000 萬美元的優惠。成功的再融資為我們提供了 12 億美元最高成本債務的核心，並且我們預付了額外的 11 億美元債務，這減少了本季的利息支出。此外，我們在本季向公司返還了 9 億美元的客戶存款準備金，產生了額外的利息收入，而整體利息收入高於預期也促成了這種優惠。第三，4500萬美元的燃料消耗、折舊和所得稅優惠推動了這最後的一步。

Next, I will give some color on our 2023 full year September guidance. For the full year 2023, we now expect the midpoint of our adjusted net loss guidance to be $100 million, an improvement of $75 million versus the midpoint of June guidance, despite the unfavorable net impact of higher fuel prices and currency costing $130 million in the fourth quarter.

接下來，我將對 2023 年全年 9 月指引進行一些闡述。對於2023 年全年，我們目前預計調整後淨虧損指引的中點為1 億美元，比6 月指引的中點增加7,500 萬美元，儘管燃油價格上漲和貨幣成本上升帶來了不利的淨影響，損失為1.3 億美元。第四季。

So our full year September guidance includes over $200 million of actual and forecasted improvements driven by 2 things. First, over $150 million of higher revenue for the full year. On the pricing front, we now expect net per diems to be up approximately 7% for the full year 2023 compared to a strong 2019, which is one point higher than the midpoint of our previous guidance range. The fourth quarter is expected to build on our third quarter improvement. For the fourth quarter, we now expect net per diems to be up 7% to 8%, resulting in a net yield forecast up over 5%. The improvement in net per diems versus our previous guidance is driven by passenger ticket revenue on both sides of the Atlantic.

因此，我們 9 月的全年指引包括由兩件事驅動的超過 2 億美元的實際和預測改進。首先，全年收入增加超過 1.5 億美元。在定價方面，我們現在預計 2023 年全年的每日淨津貼將比 2019 年的強勁增長約 7%，這比我們之前指導範圍的中點高一個百分點。預計第四季將在第三季的基礎上取得進步。對於第四季度，我們目前預計淨每日津貼將成長 7% 至 8%，從而淨收益率預測將成長超過 5%。與我們先前的指導相比，每日淨津貼的改善是由大西洋兩岸的旅客機票收入所推動的。

We do see a continuation of the strong onboard and other revenue trends we have been experiencing given the strength we are seeing in the consumer onboard our ships included in our previous guidance. The third quarter trends were very similar to the first half of 2023, and we are forecasting fourth quarter to be similar as well. And second, $80 million of favorability in net interest expense as the benefits of our deleveraging efforts will continue into the fourth quarter.

鑑於我們在先前的指導中看到的船上消費者的實力，我們確實看到了我們所經歷的強勁船上收入和其他收入趨勢的延續。第三季的趨勢與 2023 年上半年非常相似，我們預測第四季也將相似。其次，8000萬美元的淨利息支出優惠將持續到第四季度，因為我們去槓桿化努力的好處將持續下去。

Furthermore, we do expect adjusted cruise costs without fuel to be at the high end of our previous guidance range, but somewhat mitigated by the favorability in fuel consumption, depreciation and income tax expense.

此外，我們確實預計調整後的不含燃料的遊輪成本將處於我們先前指導範圍的高端，但由於燃料消耗、折舊和所得稅費用的優惠而有所緩解。

Turning to our 2024 cumulative advanced book position. The cumulative advanced book position for the full year 2024 is well above the high end of the historical range at higher prices than 2023 levels.

轉向我們 2024 年累計先進預訂位置。 2024 年全年的累積高級帳面部位遠高於歷史區間的高端，價格也高於 2023 年的水準。

This aligns with the company's yield management strategy to baseload bookings, length in the booking curve and optimize net yields. And now a few things to consider for 2024. We are forecasting a capacity increase of 5% compared to 2023. We are expecting to deliver strong 2024 net yield improvement as compared to 2023 with occupancies forecasted to return to historical levels for the full year 2024. We are well positioned to drive 2024 pricing higher with less inventory remaining to sell than the same time last year, despite a capacity increase of 5%.

這與該公司的收益管理策略一致，包括基本負載預訂、預訂曲線長度和最佳化淨收益。現在需要考慮 2024 年的一些事項。我們預計運力將比 2023 年增加 5%。我們預計 2024 年淨收益率將比 2023 年實現強勁改善，預計 2024 年全年入住率將恢復到歷史水平儘管產能增加了5%，但與去年同期相比，我們有能力推動2024 年定價上漲，且剩餘待售庫存減少。

While the occupancy opportunity will drive favorable revenue trends, let's also remember to model its impact on cost. For example, a 5 to 6 percentage point increase in occupancy could drive adjusted cruise costs without fuel up 1 to 2 percentage points in 2024 as compared to 2023.

雖然入住機會將推動有利的收入趨勢，但我們也請記住對其對成本的影響進行建模。例如，與 2023 年相比，2024 年入住率增加 5 至 6 個百分點可能會導致調整後的無燃油遊輪成本增加 1 至 2 個百分點。

In addition, in 2024, we are expecting 580 dry dock days, an increase of 18% versus 2023, which will also impact our year-over-year cost comparisons. We expect these cost increases and decelerating inflation but nevertheless, inflation will be somewhat mitigated by economies of scale from our capacity growth and various cost optimization initiatives.

此外，我們預計 2024 年的乾船塢天數將達到 580 個，比 2023 年增加 18%，這也將影響我們的年比成本比較。我們預計這些成本會增加並減緩通貨膨脹，但儘管如此，我們的產能成長和各種成本優化措施帶來的規模經濟將在一定程度上緩解通貨膨脹。

I will finish up describing our financial position. We are accelerating our debt repayment efforts and aggressively managing down our interest expense. In just 6 months, we reduced our debt balance by over 10% or nearly $4 billion of peak from the first quarter 2023.

我將結束對我們財務狀況的描述。我們正在加快償還債務的步伐，並積極控制利息支出。在短短 6 個月內，我們的債務餘額比 2023 年第一季的高峰減少了 10% 以上，即近 40 億美元。

We are in a path to end the year with less than $31 billion of debt, which is over $2.5 billion less than I forecasted 6 months ago during our March conference call. Our third quarter successful refinancing was priced at the lowest interest rate given to any cruise company in almost 2 years. This refinancing, which stretched out maturities along with our optimism about our future and the return of customer deposit reserves gave us the confidence to accelerate our debt repayment. Our maturity towers have been well managed through 2025 with just $2 billion of debt maturities next year and only $2.2 billion in 2025.

到年底，我們的債務將低於 310 億美元，比我 6 個月前在 3 月電話會議上的預測少了 25 億美元。我們第三季成功的再融資利率是近兩年來所有郵輪公司的最低利率。這次再融資期限延長，加上我們對未來的樂觀態度以及客戶存款準備金的回籠，讓我們有信心加快償還債務。我們的到期塔在 2025 年之前得到了良好的管理，明年的債務到期額僅為 20 億美元，到 2025 年也僅為 22 億美元。

In addition, because of our actions, our debt portfolio is 80% fixed and our average interest rate is approximately 5.5%. And looking forward, I expect substantial increases in adjusted free cash flow in 2024 and beyond through durable revenue growth to drive down our debt balance on our path back to investment grade.

此外，由於我們的行動，我們的債務組合 80% 是固定的，我們的平均利率約為 5.5%。展望未來，我預計透過持久的收入成長，調整後的自由現金流將在 2024 年及以後大幅增加，從而在回歸投資等級的道路上降低我們的債務餘額。

Before I turn the call over to the operator, let me remind you to visit our website for our third quarter earnings press release and presentation. Now operator, let's open up the call for questions.

在我將電話轉接給接線員之前，請允許我提醒您訪問我們的網站以獲取我們的第三季收益新聞稿和簡報。現在接線員，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

Congrats on the solid quarter and outlook as well. So look, Josh, I know you don't want to give 2024 guidance yet. And I'm not even sure you're going to give guidance in December, hold off until March like you did this year. But based on what you're seeing today, and David did give some color in his prepared remarks around the booking and pricing environment, which both seem very strong into next year.

恭喜本季的穩健表現和前景。所以，喬什，我知道你還不想給 2024 年的指導。我甚至不確定您是否會在 12 月提供指導，請像今年一樣推遲到 3 月。但根據你今天看到的情況，大衛在他準備好的有關預訂和定價環境的評論中確實給出了一些色彩，這兩者在明年似乎都非常強勁。

I mean, as we start to think about '24 from a high-level perspective, is there anything you can kind of help us with in terms of maybe how you're thinking about those per diems? And look, it sounds like you have a pretty good handle on the pricing side of things at this point. But is the onboard side still present probably the biggest headwind or unknown at this point as you kind of think about the way next year might shape up?

我的意思是，當我們開始從高層次的角度思考 24 世紀時，您是否可以在您如何考慮這些每日津貼方面為我們提供幫助？聽著，聽起來你現在對定價方面的處理相當好。但是，當您思考明年的情況時，船上方面是否仍然存在可能是最大的阻力或未知因素？

Steve, thanks for the very first call being about 2024 and guidance that we haven't given. Let me start with what you said about onboard. I think the encouraging thing about onboard is, if you look at what the consumer has been spending with us over the last 3 quarters and what we projected in the fourth quarter, it hasn't gone down. So comps might go up and down percentage-wise a bit here and there because of what the world looked like back in 2019 as a percentage quarter-over-quarter. But literally, they're spending the same amount today that they were 3 quarters ago. And we haven't seen that slowdown. So that's very encouraging, and that's part of what gives us confidence when we say we're feeling pretty good about our business in light of whatever is going on in the macro economy.

史蒂夫，感謝您在 2024 年打來的第一通電話以及我們尚未提供的指導。讓我從你在船上所說的開始。我認為船上令人鼓舞的事情是，如果你看看過去三個季度消費者在我們這裡的支出以及我們在第四季度的預測，你會發現它並沒有下降。因此，由於 2019 年全球季度環比的情況，比較可能會出現一些百分比的上下波動。但從字面上看，他們今天的支出與三個季度前的支出相同。我們還沒有看到這種放緩。因此，這是非常令人鼓舞的，當我們說，鑑於宏觀經濟發生的情況，我們對我們的業務感覺非常好時，這就是給我們信心的一部分。

With respect to our booked business, being 10 points ahead at higher pricing, does give us a good amount of maneuver ability to really deliver on the yields next year, which is what we expect to do. We're not giving guidance yet, so we're not going to get into the nuts and bolts, but I'm comfortable that we're on the right path.

就我們的預訂業務而言，在較高的定價下領先 10 個百分點，確實給了我們很大的機動能力，可以真正實現明年的收益率，這正是我們所期望的。我們還沒有提供指導，所以我們不會深入討論具體細節，但我很高興我們走在正確的道路上。

Okay. And I know you probably weren't going to give a very detailed answer there, but I thought I'd try anyway. So if you like that question for '24, I'm going to try to ask another one and see if I can get something on the other side of the equation, and that's the cost side, which David, you mentioned -- I think you said kind of a 1% to 2% increase in cost for a 5% to 6% increase in load factors.

好的。我知道你可能不會在那裡給出非常詳細的答案，但我想我還是會嘗試。所以，如果你喜歡 24 年的這個問題，我會嘗試問另一個問題，看看我是否能得到等式另一邊的東西，那就是成本方面，大衛，你提到過——我想你說負載率增加5% 到6%，成本增加1% 到2%。

So we just kind of assume you get back into that 106%, 107% range next year, coupled with the pretty material increase in dry dock days, which you guys have communicated before. As we think about next year, I know you're probably not going to give a detailed answer here either. But should we be thinking about costs kind of up in that low, call it, a 2% to 3% kind of increase next year? Is that too high? Or is that too low? I guess that's what I'm trying to figure out.

所以我們只是假設明年你們會回到 106%、107% 的範圍，再加上乾船塢天數大幅增加，你們之前已經溝通過了。當我們考慮明年時，我知道您可能也不會在這裡給出詳細的答案。但我們是否應該考慮明年成本會在如此低的水平上上漲，稱之為 2% 到 3% 的成長？是不是太高了？或者說這太低了？我想這就是我想要弄清楚的。

Yes, that's another good try. How about this. If we think about 2024, what are the tailwinds and what are the headwinds, right? So overall, as we look at 2024, we've got a good amount of momentum going, right? First of all, we're starting from that normalized or elongated booking curve, best book position in our history. The things that we have been doing to try to generate incremental demand and incremental pricing evidentiary says it's working with 7 points higher per diems pretty much consistently throughout this year as we close the occupancy gap.

是的，這是另一個很好的嘗試。這個怎麼樣。如果我們考慮 2024 年，什麼是順風，什麼是逆風，對嗎？總的來說，展望 2024 年，我們有很大的發展勢頭，對嗎？首先，我們從標準化或拉長的預訂曲線開始，這是我們歷史上最好的預訂位置。我們一直在努力創造增量需求和增量定價，證據表明，隨著我們縮小入住率差距，今年全年的每日津貼幾乎一致提高了 7 個百分點。

We expect to be back to full year occupancy as you were pointing out. The power of our portfolio approach, I don't want to discount. We've been talking about this for many quarters. And what used to be a concern around Europe should now be some applause and congratulations for our European brands who are really coming on. To be able to say that our Continental European brands hit positive yields versus '19 this summer is fantastic given where they were a year ago.

正如您所指出的，我們預計將恢復全年入住率。我不想低估我們投資組合方法的力量。我們已經討論這個問題很多個季度了。過去歐洲各地關心的問題現在應該是對真正崛起的歐洲品牌的一些掌聲和祝賀。能夠說我們的歐洲大陸品牌今年夏天與 19 年相比實現了正收益，考慮到一年前的情況，這真是太棒了。

And despite all the concerns that have been raised about our European brands and our approach to being dedicated to particular markets that we feel very strongly about.

儘管人們對我們的歐洲品牌以及我們致力於特定市場的方法提出了種種擔憂，但我們對此感到非常強烈。

We expect that will continue because, as you know, in the first half of next year, our European brands did have a lot of work to do to claw back and get to where they were. At the same time, we're doubling down on Carnival Fun, Italian Style with the second Costa ship coming over to Carnival. The trade has been rebounding tremendously.

我們預計這種情況將持續下去，因為如您所知，在明年上半年，我們的歐洲品牌確實需要做很多工作才能扭轉局面並達到原來的水平。同時，我們正在加倍努力打造義大利風格的嘉年華樂趣，第二艘歌詩達郵輪將駛入嘉年華。貿易已經大幅反彈。

Our first timers are really driving our growth, which is another testament to all the commercial work that our team is doing. So there's a lot of positivity on the table here.

我們的第一次嘗試確實推動了我們的成長，這是我們團隊正在做的所有商業工作的另一個證明。因此，這裡有很多積極的一面。

Now what's the minuses? Of course, we still don't have itineraries that were impacted by the Ukraine War. We don't expect that to come back in 2024, But I think we've proven we know how to move our assets around and put them with their best position to serve as well. China is still a question mark for the industry. We certainly hope that, that unfolds the way people are planning outside of Carnival Corporation.

現在有什麼缺點？當然，我們還沒有受到烏克蘭戰爭影響的行程。我們預計這種情況不會在 2024 年再次出現，但我認為我們已經證明我們知道如何轉移我們的資產並將其置於最佳位置以提供服務。中國對該行業來說仍然是一個問號。我們當然希望，這能展現人們在嘉年華公司之外進行規劃的方式。

David mentioned inflation. It is; decelerating, absolutely, but it's still inflation that's decelerating. So we'll have to see how that plays out. We're obviously heads down with our brands planning through 2024 and figuring out exactly how we can mitigate cost increases, which we do all the time. And we're actually in the planning phases right now for 2024 where we're going through in detail all of the activities that are going to be beneficial for us. The occupancy will be at cost, the dry dock days will be a cost and David tried to quantify those for you. And we'll have to see what happens with the macro environment and how we play. So there's a lot in both directions. I feel very good about the positive, so...

大衛提到了通貨膨脹。這是;絕對是在減速，但減速的仍然是通膨。所以我們必須看看結果如何。顯然，我們正在埋頭苦幹，為我們的品牌制定到 2024 年的計劃，並弄清楚如何減輕成本增加，這是我們一直在做的事情。實際上，我們現在正處於 2024 年的規劃階段，我們將詳細討論所有對我們有利的活動。入住率將以成本計算，乾船塢天數將以成本計算，大衛試圖為您量化這些成本。我們必須看看宏觀環境會發生什麼以及我們如何發揮。所以兩個方向都有很多東西。我對正面的一面感覺很好，所以...

Yes, and the only thing I'll add to what Josh said, and he went through some of the puts and takes on costs. On the dry dock days, that's probably going to add three quarters of a point to maybe 1 point to our overall cost structure. And on the capacity increase, remember, pre-pause, we used to say that the new ships were 15% to 25% more efficient on the operating costs, excluding fuel than the existing fleet.

是的，我唯一要補充的是喬許所說的內容，他經歷了一些成本的看跌和承擔。在幹船塢期間，這可能會使我們的整體成本結構增加四分之三到 1 個百分點。關於運力增加，請記住，在暫停之前，我們曾經說過，新船的營運成本（不包括燃料）比現有船隊高出 15% 至 25%。

But remember, we did have it. And so if you do the math, that probably would get you about a 1% reduction from economies of scale on the old basis. But remember, our existing fleet has been optimized. And as a result of that, it's probably less than 1% on the operating cost or the ship operating cost for the capacity increase. So put all those puts and takes together, we're not prepared -- We're not giving guidance at this point.

但請記住，我們確實擁有它。因此，如果你算一下，在舊的基礎上，規模經濟可能會減少約 1%。但請記住，我們現有的機隊已經過優化。因此，運力增加所帶來的營運成本或船舶營運成本可能不到 1%。因此，將所有這些考慮放在一起，我們還沒有準備好——我們目前不會提供指導。

And in fact, I will say that we're going to be spending the next month with all of our brands going through their plans, better understanding everything. And hopefully, by -- at some point during the fourth quarter, we'll have a better idea as to the overall direction of the cost structure for 2024.

事實上，我想說的是，我們將在下個月與我們所有的品牌一起完成他們的計劃，以更好地了解一切。希望到第四季的某個時候，我們將對 2024 年成本結構的整體方向有更好的了解。

Okay, guys. I won't ask another question on '24, and I'll stop there.

好吧，夥計們。 24 號我不會再問問題，就到此為止。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自帕特里克·斯科爾斯和 Truist。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, Patrick.

是的，派崔克。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. Great. Let's talk a little bit about fuel. I know in the -- I believe in the past, when fuel costs have you spiked you -- I believe you may have instituted a fuel surcharge to your customers. I believe one of your competitors is actively considering doing a fuel surcharge this time around. Is that something you might consider as well?

好的。偉大的。偉大的。我們來談談燃料。我知道，我相信在過去，當燃油成本飆升時，我相信你可能已經向你的客戶徵收燃油附加費。我相信你們的一位競爭對手這次正在積極考慮徵收燃油附加費。您也可能會考慮這一點嗎？

Yes. It's certainly not off the table. We wouldn't take anything off of the table. It's not something we're planning to implement in the near term, although that could certainly change. There are certainly considerations that have to be made about what's the norm in society with the expectations of our customer. Obviously, you don't go retroactively too. So you're talking about forward bookings.

是的。這當然不是不可能的。我們不會從桌面上拿走任何東西。這不是我們計劃在短期內實施的事情，儘管這肯定會改變。當然，必須考慮社會規範和客戶的期望。顯然，你也不會追溯。所以你說的是提前預訂。

So -- but I wouldn't take anything off the table. I would reiterate, though, even a fuel surcharge is temporary. And really, the one thing that we can do, no matter what [compellor] , hot water is used less and that's where our focus is. And we estimate it saved us about $375 million on the bottom line this year versus what our profile looks like in 2019 because of all those efforts.

所以——但我不會放棄任何事。不過，我要重申，即使是燃油附加費也是暫時的。事實上，我們能做的一件事是，無論[強制因素]是什麼，熱水的使用量都會減少，這就是我們的重點所在。我們估計，由於所有這些努力，與 2019 年相比，今年我們的利潤節省了約 3.75 億美元。

Okay. And then one more question, Josh. Certainly a similar regarding fuel. And this is sort of a high-level question here. Why is it you folks don't hedge? One of the pushbacks I get from long-only investors is they don't like the day-to-day volatility in the stock when oil gets volatile and also the volatility in earnings. There's certainly a possibility that I understand that hedging does have a real dollar cost to it. But if it brings in a long-only investor base, it may actually be worth it long term for the stock. Just talk to me about why you folks sort of hold out on not hedging when competitors do it?

好的。還有一個問題，喬許。關於燃料當然也是類似的。這是一個高級問題。你們為什麼不做對沖？我從只做多的投資者那裡得到的阻力之一是，他們不喜歡石油波動時股票的日常波動以及收益的波動。我理解對沖確實有可能會產生真正的美元成本。但如果它能帶來只做多的投資者基礎，那麼從長遠來看，該股實際上可能是值得的。請跟我談談為什麼當競爭對手這樣做時你們卻堅持不進行對沖？

Sure. Well, I'd start by saying the same thing as a surcharge, which is we don't take anything off the table, including hedging. We only get the question when fuel prices spike though. We never get the question when it's not -- when it's going the other way. So I do think that there's a little bit of a -- it's not a question of hedging. Do you -- are you putting wagers on that are either going to benefit you or not depending on the environment?

當然。好吧，我首先要說的是與附加費相同的事情，那就是我們不會取消任何東西，包括對沖。不過，只有當燃油價格飆升時我們才會提出這個問題。當事情不是這樣的時候，我們永遠不會得到這個問題——當事情朝著相反的方向發展時。所以我確實認為這不是一個對沖問題。你是否－你是否會根據環境來押注這對你有利或不利？

I buy the volatility part. I mean we've done empirical studies like everybody else. The last time we did one, it only added about 1% to the share price because even though it might take away day-to-day volatility when you look at the long-term value of the firm, ultimately, it doesn't make a dent in the grand scheme of the cash flow generation discounted back, et cetera.

我買的是波動率部分。我的意思是我們和其他人一樣進行了實證研究。上次我們這樣做時，它只增加了股價約 1%，因為即使當你考慮公司的長期價值時，它可能會消除日常波動，但最終，它不會使股價上漲。現金流產生的宏偉計劃受到折現，等等。

So it is a consideration, the volatility, as is the cost of any kind of hedging program. So we'll continue to look at it. But thus far, when we've laid out all the pros and the cons, we haven't been there. But I wouldn't say that, that has become our answer forever. That's just where we are now.

因此，波動性是一個考慮因素，任何對沖計劃的成本也是如此。所以我們將繼續關注它。但到目前為止，當我們列出所有的優點和缺點時，我們還沒有做到這一點。但我不會這麼說，這已經成為我們永遠的答案。這就是我們現在的處境。

Understood. And I can clearly get when fuel prices go down, nobody ask questions like these.

明白了。我可以清楚地知道，當燃油價格下降時，沒有人會問這樣的問題。

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

So first, I wanted to talk a little bit about the bookings commentary, Josh. You sounded very bullish on what you guys have gotten done so far for '24. And I'm just -- you used the term base loading, you gave us some great data points on where you sit now versus '19 and the volume trajectory, et cetera. And I guess the question is just sort of qualitatively, do you think that you had to give up some price to do that? Do you feel good about what you had to give up on price to do that? Or just maybe open the hood a little bit and talk qualitatively about the revenue management strategy and success there?

首先，我想談談預訂評論，喬什。聽起來你們對 24 年來你們所取得的成就非常樂觀。我只是——你使用了「基礎負荷」這個術語，你給了我們一些很好的數據點，告訴我們你現在的位置與 19 年相比以及交易量軌跡等等。我想這個問題只是定性的，你認為你必須放棄一些價格才能做到這一點嗎？您對為此而必須放棄的價格感到滿意嗎？或者只是稍微打開一下蓋子，定性地談論收入管理策略和那裡的成功？

Sure. So this is absolutely part of the plan by pulling -- we were able to pull forward 10 points and at higher prices. Now if you think about what does that mean for -- are we sacrificing price? When you look at the pricing that was in place by the time we got to this booked position last year, our pricing is very nicely higher. And so the point is you manage the bookings by pulling the volume forward, you avoid the discounting at the end. And that's how it's been playing out. And so we're very encouraged.

當然。因此，這絕對是拉動計劃的一部分——我們能夠以更高的價格拉動 10 個點。現在，如果您考慮一下這意味著什麼——我們是否要犧牲價格？當您查看去年我們到達此預訂位置時的定價時，我們的定價非常高。因此，重點是透過拉動銷量來管理預訂，從而避免最終的折扣。事情就是這樣發生的。所以我們深受鼓舞。

Okay. That's great. And then one more pricing question, but just more of a regional breakout. You mentioned that European per diems were now positive this summer. And I guess the question is, the way I would ask it is, does that mean that sort of 40% or whatever your capacity in the continental brands, which is something like that, 40% of your capacity should see -- or should be on its way to closing the gap versus what you think? What North America is currently doing index to '19? That to me would be a material tailwind. Is that the way you see it?

好的。那太棒了。然後還有一個定價問題，但更多的是區域突破。您提到今年夏天歐洲的每日津貼目前為正值。我想問題是，我想問的是，這是否意味著 40% 或無論你在大陸品牌的產能，就像這樣，你的產能的 40% 應該看到——或者應該是正在縮小與您的想法的差距嗎？北美目前正在做什麼索引到'19？對我來說，這將是一個物質上的順風。你是這樣看的嗎？

Well, I'll look for David to give the exact percentage of our European brands. But ultimately, yes, we're quite encouraged that they're going to be making up big chunks of revenue yield performance because they didn't have that ability to do so in the first half of this year. But the fact that we're here in the summer and the yields are positive, I think, is a good testament to their trajectory. David is looking for the capacity number for you. So...

好吧，我會找大衛提供我們歐洲品牌的確切百分比。但最終，是的，我們對他們將在收入表現中佔據很大一部分感到非常鼓舞，因為他們在今年上半年沒有這種能力這樣做。但我認為，我們現在正值夏季，而且收益率為正，這一事實很好地證明了他們的發展軌跡。大衛正在為您尋找容量號碼。所以...

(inaudible) specifically for the Continental European brand, which is...

（聽不清楚）專門針對歐洲大陸品牌，這是......

Continental European brands.

歐洲大陸品牌。

All of our European brands, including the U.K., is 38% of our capacity this year. But the Continental European brands is less than that. I'll calculate that in a second. Go ahead.

我們所有的歐洲品牌，包括英國，佔今年產能的 38%。但歐洲大陸品牌的數量卻少於此。我馬上就計算一下。前進。

Probably closer to 25%.

可能接近25%。

Okay. But the per diem recovery comment was about Continental or all of Europe?

好的。但每日復甦評論是關於大陸航空還是整個歐洲？

Well, the per diems were -- well, the yield comments were specifically about this summer and Costa and AIDA. I would say I can fill in the blank. The other big player in our European segment is obviously P&O Cruises. They had a 40% capacity increase this year. And so I can't say that their yields were higher. But I can tell you that their occupancy is back, and they are well on their way, and that's absolutely as expected.

嗯，每日津貼是——嗯，收益率評論是專門針對今年夏天以及 Costa 和 AIDA 的。我想說我可以填補這個空白。我們歐洲市場的另一個重要參與者顯然是 P&O Cruises。今年他們的產能增加了 40%。所以我不能說他們的收益率更高。但我可以告訴你，他們的入住率已經恢復，而且進展順利，這絕對符合預期。

Yes. And Continental European brands are 26% in '23.

是的。 23 年歐洲大陸品牌的比例為 26%。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

Two questions. One is just going back to the comments about '24 yield. And I think the comment was strong yield improvement. And I know there's a glossary of David Bernstein adjectives for slightly and strong and things in previous years. So I don't know if you could just remind us what strong is applied? And I mean, just the math of your occupancy recovering if you get back to your full occupancy being 6 to 7 points and then price on top of that, I mean, it seems like it has to be at least a high single-digit yield increase year-over-year. I don't want to put numbers in your mouth, but maybe you could help us think about David glossary there.

兩個問題。一是回到關於 24 年產量的評論。我認為評論是產量的強勁提高。我知道大衛伯恩斯坦（David Bernstein）有一個形容詞「輕微」、「強烈」以及前幾年的詞彙表。所以我不知道你能否提醒我們什麼是強的？我的意思是，如果你的入住率恢復到6 到7 個點，那麼你的入住率就會恢復，然後再考慮價格，我的意思是，看起來它必須至少有一個高個位數的收益率年增。我不想把數字放在你嘴裡，但也許你可以幫我們考慮大衛術語表。

I don't have David glossary. I just told you strong. So I'm going to stick to that. But I would say a combination of getting back for full year to historical occupancy levels as well as price increases will go in -- both things will go into what we will be looking for as far as yield improvement versus 2023.

我沒有大衛詞彙表。我只是告訴你堅強。所以我會堅持下去。但我想說，全年入住率恢復到歷史入住率水平以及價格上漲將結合起來——這兩件事都將成為我們所尋求的與 2023 年相比收益率改善的內容。

Okay. All right. And then also, I wonder if you could -- I know you just sort of launched part of the sort of Celebration Key. Can you talk about -- since it sounds like you're not giving out what the cost and amenities will be at sort of the time frame for when we might hear about the cost and amenities. I think investors sort of well understand how some other private islands have been real drivers of onboard spend and ticket price. And so it would be great to sort of get more of those details for your new island?

好的。好的。然後，我想知道你是否可以——我知道你剛剛推出了某種慶典鑰匙的一部分。你能談談嗎——因為聽起來你並沒有在我們可能聽到成本和便利設施的時間範圍內給出成本和便利設施。我認為投資者很清楚其他一些私人島嶼是如何真正推動船上支出和票價的。那麼如果能夠為您的新島嶼獲得更多這些細節，那就太好了？

Sure. So if this will be ongoing, I would expect, give or take in another month, we'll start coming out with even more. I'm happy to tell you, though, when it comes to how we'll be able to monetize the private island in addition to the premium that we'll be getting on the ticket side for such an amazing experience. The standards for any type of private destination, F&B, Cabana Rentals, other experiences. And so more will come, but that's all in the plan.

當然。因此，如果這種情況持續下去，我預計，再過一個月，我們將開始推出更多產品。不過，我很高興告訴您，除了我們將在門票方面獲得如此令人驚嘆的體驗的溢價之外，我們還將如何將私人島嶼貨幣化。任何類型的私人目的地、餐飲、小屋出租和其他體驗的標準。還會有更多的事情發生，但這都在計劃中。

Our next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的大衛·卡茨。

David, you there?

大衛，你在嗎？

Apologies, left unmute. Josh, what I wanted to just talk about for a minute is not so much this quarter, next quarter, but I'd love an update and some updated perspectives around things that you are focused on to just improve the operating execution in a broader sense. Are there potentially low-hanging fruit or things that you can change, some of which you talked about at the analyst meeting a while back?

抱歉，保持沉默。喬什，我想談一分鐘的內容並不是本季度、下季度，但我希望了解您所關注的事情的最新情況和一些最新觀點，以便在更廣泛的意義上提高營運執行力。是否有一些潛在的唾手可得的成果或您可以改變的事情，其中​​一些您在不久前的分析師會議上談到過？

Yes. I'll give you an overall, which is I don't think that there's anything revolutionary here. It is simply continuing to do our jobs better brand by brand. And we've highlighted, for example, Carnival Cruise Line and just the amazing results that they've had quarter-over-quarter. Other brands are catching up. And they're doing that because they are focused on their revenue management techniques, they're focused on delivering the experience onboard. They're focused on their performance, marketing and generating more leads to generate more bookings, positioning themselves appropriately in the market. So all of those things are incrementally helping piece by piece.

是的。我給你一個整體的印象，就是我不認為這裡有什麼革命性的東西。它只是繼續一個品牌一個品牌地更好地完成我們的工作。例如，我們重點介紹了嘉年華遊輪公司以及他們季度環比取得的驚人業績。其他品牌正在迎頭趕上。他們這樣做是因為他們專注於收入管理技術，並專注於提供船上體驗。他們專注於自己的績效、行銷和產生更多潛在客戶以產生更多預訂，從而在市場中適當定位自己。因此，所有這些事情都在一點一點地逐步提供幫助。

And that's the kind of effort that we need from our brands and their teams to be focused on all aspects of that commercial business. And so we'll continue to focus on that so that they continue to focus on it as well. And so on the revenue side, I feel like we're making good momentum.

這就是我們需要我們的品牌及其團隊所付出的努力，以專注於商業業務的各個方面。因此，我們將繼續關注這一點，以便他們也繼續關注這一點。因此，在收入方面，我覺得我們的勢頭良好。

On the cost side, there will always be opportunity for us to do better. David mentioned that we'll only -- maybe get a little bit of scale benefit from the newbuilds, and that's certainly true that are coming in. But there's always opportunity to look for efficiency and leverage scale on the existing fleet, right, in how we do our purchasing, how we benchmark against each other to find ways to do things more efficiently on the ships, source more efficiently.

在成本方面，我們總是有機會做得更好。大衛提到，我們只會——也許會從新造船中獲得一點規模效益，這確實是事實。但總有機會在現有船隊上尋求效率和利用規模，對吧，在如何我們進行採購，如何相互比較，以找到更有效地在船上做事、更有效地採購的方法。

Scale will increase because frankly speaking, we're going to be carrying a lot more guests next year than we did this year and then we did in 2019, and that gives us more opportunity to leverage scale. So I'm pretty encouraged that up and down the P&L, there will be opportunities.

規模將會擴大，因為坦白說，明年我們將接待比今年和 2019 年更多的客人，這給了我們更多利用規模的機會。因此，我很高興看到損益表的上下都會有機會。

Got it. And if I can just follow up on one specific area. You talked about performance marketing, I believe, at the analyst meeting a bit also. And where is that and what opportunities still lie ahead to drive revenue and profit there?

知道了。如果我可以跟進一個特定領域。我相信，您在分析師會議上也談到了績效行銷。那在哪裡？還有哪些機會可以推動那裡的營收和利潤？

I think we're -- I think it's fair to say that as technology advances and our teams are better able to utilize that, there's more and more opportunity to be very surgical about the guests that we're looking for and how to get them and their eyes looking at us and looking at our websites, pointing them to travel agents, whatever that might be. So I'd say that, that's pretty early days.

我認為我們——我認為可以公平地說，隨著技術的進步，我們的團隊能夠更好地利用技術，我們有越來越多的機會對我們正在尋找的客人以及如何獲得他們進行手術他們的眼睛看著我們，看著我們的網站，將他們指向旅行社，無論是什麼。所以我想說，那還太早。

And even though we've made some pretty marked improvement when it comes to some of the stats that we've shown you as some indicators, and we really don't talk about things like conversion rate or things like that. We're very encouraged by the progress, and there's certainly a lot more room to run.

儘管我們在一些統計數據方面取得了一些相當顯著的改進，我們已經向您展示了一些指標，但我們實際上並沒有談論諸如轉換率之類的事情。我們對所取得的進展感到非常鼓舞，而且肯定還有更多的空間可以發揮。

Our next question comes from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Dan Politzer。

Thanks for all the detail thus far. First question, onboard spend. It looks like it declined a little bit in terms of the pacing relative to 2019. Is that a function of mix in terms of more European? Or is that more inside cabins? If you can just talk about the real-time trends there? And along with that, are there elements on your booking and in terms of pre-bookings that you can maybe accelerate that going forward?

感謝迄今為止的所有細節。第一個問題，船上花費。與 2019 年相比，它的節奏似乎有所下降。這是歐洲風格混合的結果嗎？還是小屋內更多？您能簡單談談那裡的即時趨勢嗎？除此之外，您的預訂和提前預訂方面是否有一些元素可以加快推進速度？

Yes. So on the onboard spend, I was -- I think I tried to say this, maybe I didn't say it the right way. But generally speaking, the onboard spend levels haven't slowed down. When you think about the state of the consumer and you think about where were they in the fourth quarter of last year, first quarter of this year, second, third quarter, they're spending the same. So we haven't seen a slowdown in the profile of the consumer.

是的。因此，關於機上支出，我想我試圖這麼說，也許我沒有以正確的方式說。但整體而言，船上支出水準並未放緩。當你思考消費者的狀況時，想想他們在去年第四季、今年第一季、第二、第三季的情況，他們的支出是相同的。因此，我們並沒有看到消費者的成長放緩。

As far as -- so even though we had a lot more thirds and fourths, for example, over the summer, the spending per person per day didn't slow down. As far as how that compares to 2019, there's -- I will tell you, there's a lot in 2019 that's different from today, right, from the way we do our bundling, from the sentiments of the consumer from where we take them. We didn't have St. Petersburg, for example, in the third quarter of this year.

就 - 因此，即使我們有更多的三分之二，例如，在夏天，每人每天的支出並沒有放緩。至於與 2019 年相比，我會告訴你，2019 年有很多與今天不同的地方，對吧，我們捆綁銷售的方式，以及我們所採取的消費者情緒。例如，今年第三季我們沒有聖彼得堡的比賽。

That is, by far, got to be one of the top, if not the top onboard spending itineraries because of all the shore excursions that get generated or got generated. We didn't have that, and yet we still performed at that high level. So it's a little hard with a 4-year gap to be that specific about trends. I'd be more focused on the trend that our consumer is not slowing down.

也就是說，到目前為止，即使不是頂級的船上消費行程，也一定是頂級之一，因為所有的岸上遊覽都已產生或正在產生。我們沒有那樣的能力，但我們仍然保持著高水準的表現。因此，要在 4 年的時間間隔內準確地了解趨勢有點困難。我會更關注我們的消費者沒有放緩的趨勢。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just for my follow-up. In terms of the EU emissions, there's a new tax coming on in terms of metric tons that are admitted. Can you make -- is there any way to quantify that as we think about it for '24 or '25, '26, just given that, I think, it's a progressive tax?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是為了我的後續行動。就歐盟排放量而言，將按承認的公噸數徵收新稅。你能否提出——當我們考慮「24」或「25」、「26」時，有什麼方法可以量化這一點，我認為這是累進稅？

Yes. So for 2024, at today's current prices and given our itineraries and everything in our fuel consumption expectations, we're talking approximately $75 million for the full year 2024, which does represent 40% of what the total will be at some point in the future as the percentages go up in 2025 and '26. But keep in mind that the tax is based off of fuel consumption and so depending on what our itineraries are in 2026, all of the fuel conservation and consumption improvements we have over time, we're looking to hopefully mitigate those numbers as we move forward.

是的。因此，對於2024 年，按照今天的當前價格，並考慮到我們的行程和燃料消耗預期中的所有內容，我們談論的2024 年全年費用約為7500 萬美元，這確實佔未來某個時刻總額的40%隨著 2025 年和 26 年百分比的上升。但請記住，稅收是根據燃料消耗徵收的，因此，根據我們 2026 年的行程、隨著時間的推移我們所實現的所有燃料節約和消耗改善，我們希望隨著我們的前進，能夠減少這些數字。

Got it. And which -- is that going to flow through in terms of the P&L, the fuel line? Or is it going to be grossed up just -- and that's it for me.

知道了。就損益表（即燃油管路）而言，這將流經哪一個？或者它會變得噁心——對我來說就是這樣。

Yes, that will be as part of our fuel expense line in the P&L.

是的，這將成為損益表中燃油費用項目的一部分。

Our next question comes from Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

I'm hoping we can stay on Europe. Under separate cover this morning, I think there was a press release on Costa and the new campaign that you guys are doing there, and there were some commentary around consumer behavior and the economic environment. And I'm wondering if you would just share any of the key takeaways maybe that you have extracted around the European consumer for us?

我希望我們能留在歐洲。今天早上在單獨的報導中，我認為有一份關於 Costa 和你們在那裡開展的新活動的新聞稿，並且有一些關於消費者行為和經濟環境的評論。我想知道您是否願意分享您為我們從歐洲消費者中提取的任何關鍵要點？

Yes. So Costa is one of those brands that's really on the rebound, and we're really proud of Mario Zanetti, the President, and his whole team have been accomplishing and will continue to. Their research based on their market and the segment that they're trying to hit in their market was all about experiences and leaning into particular messaging, in particular ways to convey it because the product for Costa is already fantastic.

是的。因此，Costa 是真正正在反彈的品牌之一，我們為總裁 Mario Zanetti 和他的整個團隊已經取得的成就並將繼續取得的成就感到非常自豪。他們的研究基於他們的市場和他們試圖進入市場的細分市場，都是關於體驗和傾向於特定的訊息，特別是傳達訊息的方式，因為 Costa 的產品已經很棒了。

So it's always a matter of how do we then convey that messaging the right way to the right people so they're going to understand, want to pay to get onboard and then spend that money onboard. So there's actually a lot of work that the Costa team and some external help put in to make sure that we're marrying those things up together. And this will be the output. So I'm very excited about that trajectory.

因此，問題始終是我們如何以正確的方式將訊息傳達給正確的人，以便他們能夠理解、願意付費加入，然後在船上花錢。因此，Costa 團隊和一些外部幫助實際上做了很多工作，以確保我們將這些東西結合在一起。這將是輸出。所以我對這條軌跡感到非常興奮。

Okay. And I think earlier, you had mentioned that there were a number of new consumers coming into the brand. And I'd be curious if you guys can break out maybe the demographics? Are there significantly more younger consumers? Does that provide a better lifetime value for the business? How should we think about that?

好的。我想早些時候，您曾提到有許多新消費者進入該品牌。我很好奇你們能否透露一下人口統計？年輕消費者明顯增加嗎？這是否為企業提供了更好的終身價值？我們該如何思考這個問題？

So I don't have that data, certainly if they're ready, if we can kind of give you some more color, we'll -- I'll try to do that for you and she can circle back up with you. But this -- from my perspective, the efforts about, in part, the advertising, in part just being up and sailing again. So you get your repeaters getting off the ship and telling their friends and family how amazing it is, simply attracts newcomers.

所以我沒有這些數據，當然如果他們準備好了，如果我們能給你更多的顏色，我們會——我會盡力為你做這件事，她可以和你一起回來。但這——從我的角度來看，部分是關於廣告的努力，部分是為了再次起航。所以你讓你的回頭客下船並告訴他們的朋友和家人這有多神奇，這只會吸引新來者。

And so what's quite encouraging is the fact that our loyalists have been consistent over the last 4 quarters, and all of that growth that we've been seeing has been coming from first to cruise or first to brand means that those activities are really starting to pay off. And we think that there's -- if you think about the cruise industry in the context of the vacation industry, we're casting in that in a really big ocean. So that bodes very well for us.

因此，令人鼓舞的是，我們的忠實擁護者在過去 4 個季度中一直保持穩定，我們所看到的所有增長都來自首次到郵輪或首次到品牌，這意味著這些活動真正開始付清。我們認為，如果你在度假行業的背景下考慮遊輪產業，我們正在將其投入到一個非常大的海洋中。這對我們來說是個好兆頭。

Our next question comes from Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Infinity Research 的 Assia Georgieva。

Congratulations on a great quarter and a really nice outlook both for Q4 and the upcoming year. I had a couple of questions, Josh. Ticket has become a more reliable gauge now that we have gone into full recovery mode, the entire fleet is sailing. Onboard, while strong, should be less of a consideration? Or should we also think of the elongated booking curve offering these 40% of pre-cruise bookings and wallets being replenished, again, is something that would provide even greater stability?

恭喜第四季和來年的出色季度和非常美好的前景。我有幾個問題，喬許。現在我們已經進入完全恢復模式，整個船隊都在航行，機票已經成為一個更可靠的衡量標準。 Onboard雖然強大，但應該少考慮一點嗎？或者我們是否還應該考慮拉長的預訂曲線，這使得 40% 的遊輪前預訂和錢包得到補充，這是否會提供更大的穩定性？

Sure. I think -- so first of all, thank you for the comments. The -- certainly, the onboard component of our increases over the past several quarters has been outpaced by the improvement that we're seeing in the ticket. And so I think to your point, whereas the onboard component was a larger piece of our outperformance overall on net per diems, really, what we've been able to see is the ticket price is really coming on, which is encouraging.

當然。我認為——首先，感謝您的評論。當然，過去幾季我們增加的機上部分已經超過了我們在機票中看到的改善。因此，我認為就您的觀點而言，雖然機上組件是我們在每日淨津貼方面整體表現出色的重要組成部分，但實際上，我們所看到的是票價確實在上漲，這是令人鼓舞的。

The fact though that, again, in ultimate terms, the onboard spending has remained constant in absolute levels gives us a lot of confidence that we're doing the right things, and we're providing the right options for our guests to spend on experiences. And so I think it's actually a very good mix. And the ability for us to pull forward more onboard spending, as you mentioned, the 40% of our onboard spend pulled forward. While that's a huge increase of 11 points, it was below 30 points back in 2019. That means there's still an awful lot of room to continue to do that. And so I think those components have felt very nicely.

但事實上，從最終角度來看，船上支出的絕對水平保持不變，這讓我們充滿信心，相信我們正在做正確的事情，並且我們正在為客人提供正確的體驗消費選擇。所以我認為這實際上是一個非常好的組合。正如您所提到的，我們有能力提前推進更多的機上支出，我們的機上支出已提前了 40%。雖然大幅成長了 11 個百分點，但在 2019 年仍低於 30 個百分點。這意味著仍有很大的空間繼續這樣做。所以我認為這些組件感覺非常好。

Great. And maybe the two very quick questions, probably more for David. Should we expect about $4 billion to $5 billion a year of debt repayments to get to investment grade by year-end '26?

偉大的。也許是兩個非常簡短的問題，對大衛來說可能更多。我們是否應該預期每年約 40 億至 50 億美元的債務償還在 26 年底達到投資等級？

So we haven't given detail by year. But what we have talked about is by 2026, combination of the improving EBITDA and the debt reduction program, you're going to see investment-grade type metrics in 2026.

所以我們沒有按年份提供詳細資訊。但我們討論的是到 2026 年，結合不斷改善的 EBITDA 和債務削減計劃，你將在 2026 年看到投資等級類型的指標。

Remember that in 2024, we do have 3 ships for delivery. And so that probably will be less debt reduction in '24 than in '25 and '26, where in '25, we only have 1 ship. And in '26, we don't have any ships on order. So just keep that in mind as you build through the math throughout the years.

請記住，到 2024 年，我們確實有 3 艘船可供交付。因此，24 年的債務削減可能會少於 25 年和 26 年，而 25 年我們只有 1 艘船。 26 年，我們沒有訂購任何船舶。因此，當你多年來透過數學進行建構時，請記住這一點。

It seems that debt reduction would accelerate over the years.

多年來，債務削減似乎將會加速。

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And David, just one other quick question, if I may. NCC -- Net Cruise Cost, ex fuel are somewhat elevated levels relative to history. And I think having the -- restart is having somewhat lower occupancies that you're building on, especially at some of the European brands during the winter months. So that makes sense. But excluding the dry docks, which are coming up in 2024, do you expect that cadence of percentage increase in net cruise cost ex fuel to decelerate?

好的。大衛，如果可以的話，我還有一個簡單的問題。 NCC－淨遊輪成本（不含燃油）相對於歷史水準有所升高。我認為重新啟動會導致您正在建立的入住率下降，尤其是在冬季的一些歐洲品牌。所以這是有道理的。但如果不包括 2024 年即將建成的乾船塢，您是否預期淨郵輪成本（不含燃料）的百分比成長速度會放緩？

So let's keep in mind the 2023 numbers are being compared to 2019. So that is 4 years, not 1. And so when we get to 2024, we're going to go back to the year-over-year comparisons, it's just 1 year. And so the expectation would be it's only 1 year of inflation as opposed to 4 years of inflation. So keep that in mind as you go through and think about 2024.

因此，讓我們記住 2023 年的數字是與 2019 年進行比較的。所以這是 4 年，而不是 1 年。所以當我們到 2024 年時，我們將回到同比比較，它只是 1 年。因此，預期通貨膨脹期僅為 1 年，而非 4 年。因此，當您回顧和思考 2024 年時，請牢記這一點。

I think it's fair to say yes -- the answer is yes. We don't expect anything year-over-year like we've had this year in the 11%, absolutely.

我認為可以公平地說是——答案是肯定的。我們絕對不希望出現像今年 11% 的同比情況。

Our next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的馬修·博斯。

So Josh, maybe could you elaborate on recent underlying demand trends in North America versus Europe? More so the continued momentum that you're seeing through September that you cited, I guess, what are you seeing if you break it down between loyalists relative to new to cruise and just initiatives in place to retain these new customers that you're seeing?

喬什，您能否詳細說明一下北美與歐洲最近的潛在需求趨勢？更重要的是，你在整個九月看到的持續勢頭，我想，如果你將其分解為相對於遊輪新手的忠誠者和為留住你所看到的這些新客戶而採取的舉措，你會看到什麼？

So I can't -- I don't have any data about what the breakdown is for the bookings of September based on first timers or loyalists. But what I can tell you is that -- I just -- I think it's probably important to put into context. We've talked about wave, right? And we talked about how wave was the longest wave in history. And I'm not sure when we're ever going to call it, right, because we broke the record in Q1. We then broke that record in Q2, which never happens. We just hit a record in Q3.

所以我不能——我沒有任何關於 9 月首次預訂者或忠誠者預訂細目的數據。但我可以告訴你的是——我只是——我認為結合上下文可能很重要。我們已經討論過波浪，對吧？我們討論了波浪如何成為史上最長的波浪。我不確定我們什麼時候會調用它，對吧，因為我們在第一季打破了記錄。然後我們在第二季度打破了該記錄，但這從未發生過。我們剛剛在第三季創下了紀錄。

And when you look at the first 4 weeks of September, actually, we're up very nicely as well. And it's also being driven by the European brands. North American is positive. But the European brands are really coming on as we expected our portfolio to do. And so it hasn't slowed down in September. We attribute that to all the good work that our brands have been doing, that we've been talking about and the inherent pent-up demand that we can still tap.

事實上，當您查看 9 月的前 4 週時，我們的情況也非常好。這也是由歐洲品牌所推動的。北美是積極的。但歐洲品牌確實如我們預期的出現了。因此，九月份的成長動能並沒有放緩。我們將其歸因於我們的品牌一直在做的所有出色工作、我們一直在談論的以及我們仍然可以利用的內在被壓抑的需求。

And the encouraging thing is because of that trajectory with new to brand and indeed new to cruise, it means we're effectively back to normal from that perspective, and we can really focus on optimizing the revenue and the yields. So it hasn't stopped.

令人鼓舞的是，由於新品牌和新郵輪的軌跡，這意味著從這個角度來看，我們實際上已經恢復正常，我們可以真正專注於優化收入和收益率。所以一直沒有停止。

Great. And then, David, just to circle back on the puts and takes around cost that seems to be heightened sensitivity. So 1% to 2% core cost growth, if I heard it right, plus dry docks, I think you said 0.75 to 1 point. But then the offset or partial offset is economies of scale and the reorganization efficiencies, I think you said maybe around 1 point of opportunity. So if you net these items, my math, it's about 2% total cost increase. Any items that I'm missing here, just to maybe clarify some of the puts and takes there?

偉大的。然後，大衛，只是回到看跌期權並採取似乎高度敏感的成本。所以1%到2%的核心成本成長，如果我沒聽錯的話，再加上乾船塢，我想你說的是0.75到1點。但抵消或部分抵消是規模經濟和重組效率，我想你說的可能是 1 個機會點左右。因此，如果將這些項目淨額計算在內，總成本將增加約 2%。我在這裡缺少任何項目，只是為了澄清那裡的一些看跌期權和拿貨？

Inflation year-over-year. Just whatever inflation turns out to be for '24 versus '23.

通貨膨脹同比。無論 24 年與 23 年的通膨情況如何。

Our next question comes from Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just a quick one on the consumer. And the -- I'm just curious if there's really been any change in bookings. I realize that you've talked about demand being quite strong and so on. But there's obviously a high concern around the consumer in general. Are you seeing any trade down effect or change in length or maybe even like prebooking for onboard spend? I'm just trying to understand if there's been any changes at all realizing the customers are positive at records, but just curious there.

簡單介紹一下消費者。我只是很好奇預訂是否真的有任何變化。我知道您已經談到需求非常強勁等等。但顯然廣大消費者對此高度重視。您是否看到任何折價效應或長度變化，甚至可能像提前預訂船上消費？我只是想了解是否有任何變化，意識到客戶的記錄是積極的，但只是好奇。

Sure. No. We're trying to say it as plainly as we can. We just have not seen any sign of slowdown. The only slowdown we see is as we're running out of inventory, it has to slow down, that's it. So we feel quite good.

當然。不。我們試圖盡可能簡單地表達出來。我們只是沒有看到任何放緩的跡象。我們看到的唯一放緩是因為我們的庫存即將耗盡，所以它必須放緩，僅此而已。所以我們感覺很好。

For 2024 that is, but we have lots of cruises open for '25 and '26, and so there's lots of people are booking way ahead.

2024 年是這樣，但我們有很多 25 和 26 年開放的遊輪，所以很多人都提前預訂了。

I think we've got time for one more, operator.

我想我們還有時間再請一位接線生。

Our next question comes from Chris Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos。

Josh, on the Costa Cruise and the new advertising strategy or campaign announced today, how do you see that evolving over time? And should we expect this enhanced messaging or advertising to extend to other brands as we work through SEA Change?

喬什，關於歌詩達郵輪以及今天宣布的新廣告策略或活動，您如何看待隨著時間的推移而演變？當我們透過 SEA Change 開展工作時，我們是否應該期望這種增強的訊息或廣告擴展到其他品牌？

No. So first, the answer is no. This is very much bespoke for Costa, and they're Southern European guest base and who they're trying to reach. So certainly not. And as far as how this falls out, I mean, this is going to work its way into Costa's general themes. It already does, as I said, marry what they already do onboard. So this is just trying to make sure that it's communicated the right way and more to come.

不。所以首先，答案是否定的。這在很大程度上是為 Costa 量身定制的，他們是南歐的客戶群，也是他們想要接觸的客戶。所以當然不是。至於結果如何，我的意思是，這將融入科斯塔的整體主題。正如我所說，它已經與他們在船上已經做的事情結合起來了。所以這只是為了確保以正確的方式傳達訊息以及未來的更多訊息。

So -- sure. With that, I'd say thanks, everybody, and looking forward to talking to you next quarter.

所以——當然。說到這裡，我要向大家表示感謝，並期待下個季度與你們交談。

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。祝大家有個美好的一天。