丘博保險集團 (CB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Greg, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to today's Chubb Limited second quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。我叫格雷格，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加今天的 Chubb Limited 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Karen, you have the floor.

現在我想將電話轉給投資人關係資深副總裁 Karen Beyer。凱倫，請你發言。

Thank you, and welcome to our June 30, 2025, second quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2025 年 6 月 30 日第二季財報電話會議。我們今天的報告將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與公司業績、定價和業務組合、成長機會以及經濟和市場狀況有關的陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能存在重大差異。

Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters. We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件、收益報告和財務補充資料，這些文件可在我們的網站 investors.chubb.com 上找到，以獲取可能影響這些事項的因素的更多資訊。我們今天也將參考非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標，其與最直接可比較的公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳以及相關詳細資訊均在我們的收益新聞稿和財務補充中提供。

Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer, and then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team. And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

現在我想介紹我們的演講者。首先，我們有董事長兼首席執行官埃文·格林伯格 (Evan Greenberg)，然後是首席財務官彼得·恩斯 (Peter Enns)，然後我們將回答您的問題。我們的管理團隊的幾位成員也將協助您解答問題。現在我很高興將電話轉給埃文。

Good morning. As you saw from the numbers, we had an excellent quarter. Core operating EPS was a record $6.14, up 14% from a year ago, supported by record underwriting, strong investment results and good premium revenue growth. All of our businesses and regions of the world contributed to the quarter's growth - particularly in North America: our middle market and small commercial, personal lines and E&S businesses; and in international, both commercial and consumer P&C in all regions; and Life Insurance in Asia and the U.S.

早安.正如您從數據中看到的，我們這個季度表現非常出色。核心營運每股收益達到創紀錄的 6.14 美元，比去年同期增長 14%，這得益於創紀錄的承保、強勁的投資業績和良好的保費收入增長。我們所有的業務和全球地區都為本季的成長做出了貢獻 - 特別是在北美：我們的中型市場和小型商業、個人險和 E&S 業務；以及國際上所有地區的商業和消費者 P&C 業務；以及亞洲和美國的人壽保險。

Core operating income of $2.5 billion was a record result, up 13%.

核心營業收入達 25 億美元，創歷史新高，成長 13%。

The results demonstrate the broad-based, diversified nature of our company geographically by customer segment and product area. Our balance of business and presence provides us a wide range of opportunities, which supports long-term sustainable and profitable growth.

結果表明，我們公司在客戶群體和產品領域方面具有地域廣泛性和多樣化的特點。我們的業務和影響力的平衡為我們提供了廣泛的機會，支持了長期可持續的獲利成長。

In the quarter, we produced record underwriting income on both the published and current accident year ex-CAT basis, supported by premium growth and underwriting margin improvement. Published underwriting income of $1.6 billion was up 15% from a year ago, leading to a combined ratio of 85.6% -- more than a percentage point better than a year earlier. Current accident year underwriting income, excluding CATs, was up almost 11.5%, supported by a combined ratio of 82.3%, again nearly a full point improvement from prior year.

本季度，在保費成長和承保利潤率提高的支持下，我們在公佈的事故年度和當前事故年度（不包括巨災損失）基礎上實現了創紀錄的承保收入。已公佈的承保收入為 16 億美元，比去年同期成長 15%，綜合成本率為 85.6%，比去年同期高出一個百分點以上。本事故年度承保收入（不包括 CAT）上漲近 11.5%，綜合成本率為 82.3%，與前一年相比再次提高了近整整一個百分點。

On the invested asset side, for the quarter, adjusted net investment income was nearly $1.7 billion, up 8%. Our fixed income portfolio yield is 5.1%, and our current new money rate is averaging 5.4%. Our operating cash flow in the quarter, which supports investments was quite strong, at $3.2 billion.

在投資資產方面，本季調整後的淨投資收入近 17 億美元，成長 8%。我們的固定收益投資組合報酬率為 5.1%，目前新資金利率平均為 5.4%。本季我們的營運現金流相當強勁，達到 32 億美元，為投資提供了支持。

Given federal deficits, a weakening dollar and our country's trade policies, I expect the trend is towards higher inflation and a steeper yield curve, which is an issue for our country but will support our company's continued growth in investment income.

鑑於聯邦赤字、美元疲軟以及我國的貿易政策，我預期趨勢是通膨上升和殖利率曲線趨陡，這對我國來說是一個問題，但將支持我們公司的投資收入持續成長。

Tangible book value growth, our primary measure of wealth creation, was up 23.7% per share from a year ago and 8% from the previous quarter. Our annualized core operating return on tangible equity in the quarter was 21%, very strong results.

有形帳面價值成長是我們衡量財富創造的主要指標，比去年同期成長了 23.7%，比上一季成長了 8%。本季我們的年化核心營運有形資產報酬率為 21%，業績非常強勁。

Peter will have more to say about financial items.

彼得將會多談財務問題。

Turning to growth, pricing and the rate environment, global P&C premiums, which exclude agriculture, grew 5.8% and 6.4% in constant dollars, with commercial up 4.2% and consumer up 11.9%. Premiums in our Life Insurance division grew almost 17.5%.

談到成長、定價和利率環境，不包括農業的全球財產和意外傷害保險費按不變美元計算分別增長 5.8% 和 6.4%，其中商業保險費增長 4.2%，消費者保險費增長 11.9%。我們人壽保險部門的保費增加了近 17.5%。

In terms of the US commercial P&C underwriting environment, large account-related short-tail business, both admitted and E&S, has grown quite competitive. A lot more capital is chasing the property business and prices are softening, while terms and conditions remain steady. We are, of course, disciplined, and we're not going to write business below an adequate price. While others are leaning in, we've begun walking away, where necessary.

就美國商業財產險和意外險承保環境而言，大帳戶相關的短尾業務（包括已承保業務和風險與責任業務）的競爭已經相當激烈。越來越多的資本湧入房地產行業，價格正在走軟，而條款和條件則保持穩定。當然，我們是嚴守紀律的，我們不會以低於合理價格的價格承接業務。當其他人都在靠近時，我們卻在必要時開始撤離。

On the other hand, middle market and small commercial property remain much more disciplined and orderly. Rates continue to rise, and we're growing property in this area. Casualty continues to firm in all areas that require rate - retail and E&S, both large account and middle market- and, again, we are growing. While financial lines remain soft, we're seeing signs of firming in discrete classes.

另一方面，中型市場和小型商業房地產仍然更規範有序。利率持續上漲，我們正在該地區增加房地產。在所有需要費率的領域（零售和 E&S，包括大客戶和中型市場），意外險業務繼續保持堅挺，而且，我們正在再次成長。儘管金融股依然疲軟，但我們看到了離散類股走強的跡象。

With that as backdrop, I'll give you some more color by division.

以此為背景，我將透過劃分為你提供更多顏色。

Beginning with North America, P&C premiums excluding agriculture, were up 5.3%, including growth of 9.1% in personal insurance and 4.1% in commercial, with P&C lines up 4.2% and financial lines actually up 3.6%.

從北美開始，不包括農業的財產和意外傷害保險費上漲了 5.3%，其中個人保險增加了 9.1%，商業保險增加了 4.1%，財產和意外傷害險種上漲了 4.2%，而金融險種實際上上漲了 3.6%。

In Commercial, we had a good quarter for new business - up 7% versus prior year - driven by middle-market across the board and in large account and E&S casualty lines. Our renewal retention on a policy count basis was 86%.

在商業領域，本季我們的新業務表現良好，比上年增長 7%，這主要得益於中端市場、大額帳戶和 E&S 意外險等業務的全面推動。以保單數量計算，我們的續保保留率為 86%。

Premiums in our leading middle market division grew 8.4%, another excellent result, with P&C up 10% and financial lines up 2%. Our Small Commercial business grew about 10%.

我們領先的中端市場部門的保費增長了 8.4%，這是另一個優異的成績，其中財產險和意外險增長了 10%，金融險增長了 2%。我們的小型商業業務成長了約 10%。

Premiums in our Major Accounts and Specialty division grew 1.5%, with our large account business essentially flat and our E&S business up 5.6%. Both were heavily impacted by premium reductions in property.

我們主要帳戶和專業部門的保費成長了 1.5%，其中大額帳戶業務基本持平，而 E&S 業務成長了 5.6%。兩者都受到房地產保費下降的嚴重影響。

Overall commercial pricing for property and casualty excluding financial lines and comp was up 4.5%, with rates up 1.6% and exposure change of 2.9%. Property pricing was down 2.5%, with rates down about 7%, offset by exposure change of 4.9%. Importantly, going a step further, property pricing was down more than 12% in large account business, both admitted and E&S, and it was up over 8% in middle market and small commercial. Casualty pricing in North America was up 11.6%, with rates up 10.6% and exposure up 0.9%.

不包括金融險和綜合險的財產和意外險整體商業價格上漲 4.5%，費率上漲 1.6%，風險敞口變化 2.9%。房地產價格下跌 2.5%，利率下降約 7%，但風險敞口變化 4.9% 抵消了這一影響。更重要的是，大客戶業務（包括承認的和 E&S 的）的房地產價格下跌了 12% 以上，而中型市場和小型商業的房地產價格上漲了 8% 以上。北美傷亡險定價上漲 11.6%，費率上漲 10.6%，風險敞口上漲 0.9%。

Financial lines pricing was down 1.2% and in workers comp, primary comp pricing was essentially flat while large account risk management pricing was up over 7.5%.

金融險定價下跌了 1.2%，工傷賠償、主要賠償定價基本上持平，而大額帳戶風險管理定價上漲了 7.5% 以上。

In North America Commercial, our selected loss-cost trends remained steady across the board. No change from what I gave you last quarter.

在北美商業領域，我們選定的損失成本趨勢全面保持穩定。與我上個季度給你的資訊相比沒有任何變化。

On the consumer side of North America, our high-net-worth personal lines business had a simply outstanding quarter with premium growth exceeding 9%. New business growth was more than 17%. Homeowners pricing was up 10.2% in the quarter and ahead of loss-costs, which remained steady at 8.9%. I expect the kinds of results we're showing in personal lines to endure and continue.

在北美的消費者方面，我們的高淨值個人險業務本季表現非常出色，保費成長率超過 9%。新業務成長超過17%。本季度，房主定價上漲了 10.2%，高於損失成本，後者保持穩定在 8.9%。我希望我們在個人領域所取得的成果能夠持續下去。

Turning to our international general insurance operations, premiums were up 8.5%, or over 10% in constant dollars. Commercial lines grew about 7% and consumer was up more than 15%.

談到我們的國際一般保險業務，保費上漲了 8.5%，以固定美元計算則上漲了 10% 以上。商業險種成長約 7%，消費者險種成長超過 15%。

From a region of the world perspective, Asia grew over 12.5% in constant dollars. Europe grew over 8% and Latin America grew over 17%.

從世界區域來看，亞洲以不變美元計算成長了12.5%以上。歐洲成長超過8%，拉丁美洲成長超過17%。

Premiums in our London wholesale business were up over 7%.

我們倫敦批發業務的保費上漲了 7% 以上。

In our international retail commercial business, P&C pricing was up just 0.5% and financial lines pricing was down over 6.5%. The loss cost trend in our international retail business remained steady. Like in North America, large account commercial property, shared and layered, has become much more competitive, particularly in London. While in the rest of the world property is growing more competitive, conditions remain reasonably orderly, though they vary by market.

在我們的國際零售商業業務中，財產險和意外價格僅上漲 0.5%，金融險價格下跌超過 6.5%。我們的國際零售業務的損失成本趨勢保持穩定。與北美一樣，大型商業房地產（共享和分層）的競爭變得更加激烈，尤其是在倫敦。儘管世界其他地區的房地產競爭日益激烈，但市場狀況仍然相當有序，儘管每個市場的情況都有所不同。

In our international life insurance business, which is fundamentally Asia, premiums were up 18% in constant dollars and in North America, Combined Insurance Company’s premiums grew over 17%. Our life division produced $305 million of pre-tax income in the quarter, up about 10.5%. As you know, the economic and geopolitical environment is dynamic and evolving. We're in a period of greater uncertainty. The U.S. recently passed tax legislation and efforts towards deregulation should support economic growth. On the other hand, budget deficits, trade and immigration policies, and a weaker dollar are potential headwinds that can impact both economic growth and inflation. The picture is complex. With that as context, Chubb's fundamentals and our positioning are simply excellent. Organizationally we're performing at a high level, coupled with our broad-based global diversification, and a disciplined, energized and talented culture of professionals.

在我們的國際人壽保險業務中（主要在亞洲），保費以不變美元計算上漲了 18%，而在北美，聯合保險公司的保費增加了 17% 以上。我們的人壽保險部門本季實現了 3.05 億美元的稅前收入，成長約 10.5%。眾所周知，經濟和地緣政治環境是動態變化的。我們正處於一個更不確定的時期。美國最近通過的稅收立法和放鬆管制的努力應該會支持經濟成長。另一方面，預算赤字、貿易和移民政策以及美元疲軟都是可能影響經濟成長和通膨的潛在阻力。情況很複雜。從這個角度來看，丘博的基本面和我們的定位非常出色。從組織上看，我們的表現很高，同時我們擁有廣泛的全球多元化，以及紀律嚴明、充滿活力和才華橫溢的專業文化。

As I observed at the beginning of the year, roughly 80% of our businesses have good growth and continued growth prospects. There is a lot of opportunity, and I have confidence in our ability to continue to grow both top and bottom line at a superior rate, CATs and FX notwithstanding. To reinforce, from all I can see overall, I expect the company's pattern of growth, revenue and earnings to continue.

正如我在年初觀察到的，我們大約80%的業務都具有良好的成長和持續成長的前景。機會很多，儘管存在 CAT 和 FX，但我對我們繼續以優異的速度實現營收和利潤增長的能力充滿信心。需要強調的是，從我所看到的整體情況來看，我預計該公司的成長、收入和獲利模式將會持續下去。

Now I'll turn the call over to Peter, and then we're going to come back and we're going to take some of your questions.

現在我將把電話轉給彼得，然後我們會回來回答你們的一些問題。

Good morning. As you've heard from Evan, we had another strong quarter that contributed to quarterly and six-month records. Our results were supported by exceptional balance sheet strength, including all-time highs in book value of $69 billion and cash and invested assets of $160 billion. Additionally, the quarter produced adjusted operating cash flow of $3.2 billion.

早安.正如埃文所說，我們又度過了一個表現強勁的季度，為季度和六個月的記錄做出了貢獻。我們的業績得益於出色的資產負債表實力，包括帳面價值創歷史新高 690 億美元以及現金和投資資產 1,600 億美元。此外，本季調整後的營運現金流為 32 億美元。

There are a few capital-related matters I'd like to touch on. In May, our Board authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program that took effect on July 1 with no expiration date. In the quarter, we returned $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders, including $388 million in dividends, and $676 million in share repurchases.

我想談一些與資本有關的問題。五月，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 50 億美元股票回購計劃，該計劃於 7 月 1 日生效，沒有截止日期。本季度，我們向股東返還了 11 億美元的資本，其中包括 3.88 億美元的股息和 6.76 億美元的股票回購。

Book and tangible book value per share grew 6.1% and 8.0%, respectively, for the quarter. Book in tangible book value per share excluding AOCI grew 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively, for the quarter, and 10.3% and 15.3%, respectively, from the prior year.

本季每股帳面價值和有形帳面價值分別成長 6.1% 和 8.0%。本季不包括 AOCI 的每股有形帳面價值分別成長 3.4% 和 4.5%，比上年分別成長 10.3% 和 15.3%。

This quarter we also closed on the acquisition of Liberty Mutual's P&C business in Thailand, which diluted tangible book value by about $230 million, or about half of a percentage point to growth.

本季度，我們也完成了對 Liberty Mutual 在泰國的 P&C 業務的收購，這導致有形帳面價值減少了約 2.3 億美元，或成長率降低了約半個百分點。

Our core operating return on tangible equity and core operating ROE were 21.0% and 13.9%, respectively, for the quarter.

本季度，我們的核心營業有形資產報酬率和核心營業淨資產報酬率分別為 21.0% 和 13.9%。

Pre-tax catastrophe losses were $630 million for the quarter, split 60% U.S. and 40% international from a variety of events.

本季稅前巨災損失為 6.3 億美元，其中 60% 發生在美國，40% 發生在國際，這些損失源自於各種事件。

Pre-tax prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was favorable $319 million, split 87% short-tail, primarily from Commercial Property related lines and Personal Auto, and 13% long-tail. Our corporate runoff portfolio had adverse development of $70 million, mostly from molestation-related claims development.

我們活躍公司本季的稅前前期發展為 3.19 億美元，其中 87% 為短尾，主要來自商業房地產相關業務和個人汽車，13% 為長尾。我們的公司清算投資組合出現了 7000 萬美元的不利發展，主要來自與性騷擾相關的索賠發展。

Turning to investments, our A-rated portfolio increased over $6 billion this quarter, reflecting strong operating cash flow as well as positive marks to market and favorable FX, partially offset by shareholder distributions. Adjusted net investment income was $1.69 billion. We now expect adjusted net investment income to be approximately $1.72 billion to $1.74 billion next quarter.

談到投資，本季度我們的 A 級投資組合增加了 60 多億美元，反映了強勁的經營現金流以及積極的市價和有利的外匯，但股東分配部分抵消了這一增長。調整後的淨投資收益為16.9億美元。我們現在預計下個季度調整後的淨投資收入約為 17.2 億美元至 17.4 億美元。

Our core effective tax rate was within our previously guided range at 19.1% for the quarter, and we continue to expect our annual core operating effective tax rate to be in the range of 19% to 19.5%.

本季度，我們的核心有效稅率在我們先前預期的 19.1% 範圍內，我們繼續預計年度核心營運有效稅率將在 19% 至 19.5% 之間。

I'll now turn the call back over to Keren.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Keren。

And at this point, we're happy to take your questions.

現在，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

So during the quarter, Evan, you and John put an article, an editorial in the Wall Street Journal about the litigation challenges that the industry faces. And so, I wanted to just have you talk a little bit more about this. Specifically, how is it affecting the coverages for casualty and general liability? Is it making it uninsurable? And I guess, how do you see the tort reform situation playing out because getting some sort of federal resolution seems to be challenging to say the least, and a state-by-state strategy for reform seems like it could take forever.

因此，在本季度，埃文、您和約翰在《華爾街日報》上發表了一篇文章，一篇關於該行業面臨的訴訟挑戰的社論。因此，我只想讓您再多談談這個問題。具體來說，它對意外傷害和一般責任保險的承保範圍有何影響？這是否使其無法投保？我想問一下，您如何看待侵權法改革的情況，因為獲得某種聯邦決議似乎至少可以說是具有挑戰性的，而逐州實施改革戰略似乎可能需要很長時間。

Yes. So you got to separate two things. So let's not conflate. The two of us wrote that article, op-ed. That was about public policy. And that was to flag an issue that people should be focused on for our country that is a problem. It impacts the cost of everything. It's inflationary. It impacts innovation and growth of business and continuity of businesses, litigation and the movement of cost inflation around it, which runs at 7% to 9% every year, which is a multiple of what the nation runs as inflation, is roughly -- the total cost is roughly 2.5% of GDP and only a fraction of the $550 billion goes to the actual aggrieved party.

是的。所以你必須把兩件事分開。所以我們不要混淆。我們兩個人寫了那篇文章，一篇專欄文章。那是關於公共政策的。這是為了提醒人們應該關注我們國家的一個問題。它影響一切事物的成本。這是通貨膨脹。它影響企業的創新和成長、企業的連續性、訴訟以及周圍的成本通膨運動，成本通膨每年以 7% 到 9% 的速度增長，大約是全國通貨膨脹率的數倍——總成本大約佔 GDP 的 2.5%，而 5500 億美元中只有一小部分流向了實際受害方。

And while litigation is an important function in a society based around laws, the trial bar and the litigation funding industry together are money-making ventures that are out of control. And we are pointing that out because I started by saying, don't conflate two things because the insurance industry and our job, we don't print money. We intermediate money. And frankly, when I look from an insurance point of view today, the pricing for most --

雖然訴訟是法治社會的重要職能，但訴訟律師業和訴訟融資業合在一起卻是失控的賺錢行業。我們指出這一點是因為我開始說過，不要混淆兩件事，因為保險業和我們的工作，我們不印鈔票。我們進行中介資金交易。坦白說，當我從今天的保險角度來看，大多數保險的定價--

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Did I lose you?

我失去你了嗎？

Operator, I can't hear the speaker.

接線生，我聽不到揚聲器的聲音。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Actually one moment please if we can just pause for a moment we will be right back with you callers. Sorry for any inconvenience.

實際上，請稍等片刻，如果我們可以暫停一下，我們馬上就會回覆各位來電。不便之處，請諒解。

And ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for your patience. We are experiencing some technical difficulties there. I would now like to hand it back to Karen and the crew to continue the Q&A session. Speakers, please --

女士們、先生們，非常感謝你們的耐心。我們在那裡遇到了一些技術困難。現在我想將時間交還給凱倫和全體人員，繼續問答環節。請發言者--

I think we can move on to Bob, next caller.

我想我們可以轉到下一位來電者鮑伯。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

Hi, good morning, folks. My first question is about Latin America. You had a pretty strong Latin America growth in 2024. And this quarter, on a constant currency basis, it was even stronger. Can you maybe help us to get a better understanding of maybe is there like a specific country that's driving this or a specific product? Or can you maybe just help us about the opportunity there going forward, things of that nature?

大家早安。我的第一個問題是關於拉丁美洲的。2024 年拉丁美洲的成長相當強勁。本季度，以固定匯率計算，其表現甚至更強勁。您能否幫助我們更了解是否有特定的國家或特定的產品在推動這項進程？或者您能否幫助我們了解未來的機會，諸如此類的事情？

Yeah. Bob, we're throughout Latin America with a significant presence in Mexico. Number three, P&C writer. Number three, auto insurer in Mexico, we've got 60 offices, thousands of agents do well over -- do over $1 billion of premiums. And automobile in Mexico, important business to us, as you've known for – as we've said for years, growing well. Small commercial, growing well. A&H, growing well.

是的。鮑勃，我們的業務遍佈拉丁美洲，尤其是在墨西哥。第三位，財產及意外險作家。第三，我們是墨西哥的汽車保險公司，有 60 個辦事處，數千名代理人，保費收入超過 10 億美元。正如您所知，汽車業對我們來說是一項重要的業務，正如我們多年來所說的那樣，汽車業發展良好。小型商業，發展良好。A&H，發展良好。

Our digital business in Latin America, which show -- and our direct marketing, which shows up in Chile and in Brazil, we have important partnerships with the likes of Nubank in Brazil and we're the exclusive partner, joint venture partner with Banco de Chile in Chile. Those businesses and our consumer business there, life and non-life, are growing quickly and doing quite well. Argentina, as the country has improved, we've had a presence forever and Argentina in the commercial P&C business is growing.

我們在拉丁美洲的數位業務以及在智利和巴西的直接行銷，我們與巴西的 Nubank 等銀行建立了重要的合作夥伴關係，並且我們是智利銀行的獨家合作夥伴和合資夥伴。這些業務以及我們的消費者業務（包括人壽和非人壽）都在快速成長，並且表現良好。隨著阿根廷的不斷進步，我們一直在該國開展業務，並且阿根廷的商業財產和意外保險業務也在不斷發展。

So our consumer business outpaced our commercial business in the quarter, it's enduring, and it's across -- it's not simply a trade, and it's across franchises that are moving from strength to strength with a lot of opportunity.

因此，本季我們的消費者業務超過了商業業務，這種成長將持續下去，而且是跨行業的——這不僅僅是一項交易，而是跨行業的特許經營，這些特許經營正在不斷發展壯大，擁有很多機會。

It has a certain volatility signature to it. It's not smooth every quarter and quarter-to-quarter, but you measure it over any period of time. And we expect, depending on how the world goes, double-digit growth in Latin America continues over time.

它具有一定的波動性特徵。雖然每個季度和每個季度之間都不會很順利，但你可以在任何一段時間內對其進行衡量。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，拉丁美洲將繼續保持兩位數的成長，這取決於世界局勢的發展。

Okay. No, that's really -- yes, double-digit growth going forward is pretty strong. Maybe if we can ask about -- this might be a little hypothetical. So, administration has talked about potentially phasing out FEMA. And if that were to happen, does that have an impact on your high-net-worth business in the coastal states? Would you consider in partner with other insurers to write flood insurance business to support your high-net-worth book. Just curious if you have any thoughts there.

好的。不，確實如此——是的，未來兩位數的成長相當強勁。也許我們可以問一下——這可能有點假設。因此，政府已經討論了逐步取消聯邦緊急事務管理署 (FEMA) 的可能性。如果發生這種情況，這會對您在沿海各州的高淨值業務產生影響嗎？您是否考慮與其他保險公司合作進行洪水保險業務來支援您的高淨值帳簿？只是好奇您是否有什麼想法。

No. Look, FEMA on flood insurance provides a relatively modest limit. It's an important limit to the average consumer, but for high-net-worth, if you think of the values of their homes that you measure in the millions and FEMA gives you $0.25 million or so of coverage. While it's not something that you sneeze at, it's not -- it doesn't move the needle. And the private flood market, and Chubb is part of it, has been growing. It's on a selective basis, with frankly, better mapping and underwriting than FEMA’s. So I don't see enough.

不。你看，FEMA 對洪水保險規定的限額相對較小。對於普通消費者來說，這是一個重要的限制，但對於高淨值人士來說，如果你想到他們的房屋價值以百萬計，而聯邦緊急事務管理署 (FEMA) 會給你 25 萬美元左右的保險。雖然這不是什麼會讓你打噴嚏的事情，但它不會——它不會移動針頭。私人洪水市場（Chubb 是其中的一部分）一直在成長。它是有選擇性的，坦白說，比聯邦緊急事務管理署的地圖繪製和承保更好。所以我看的還不夠。

If FEMA phases out, I think it's bad for the country. I would restructure FEMA and how it provides coverage. I wouldn't provide the same coverage to the same individual to rebuild and rebuild and rebuild in the same flood zone, and have multiple claims. On the other hand, as a first loss in flood for people who have no other choice. I -- from a social perspective, I would keep it.

如果聯邦緊急事務管理局 (FEMA) 逐步取消該職能，我認為這對國家不利。我將重組聯邦緊急事務管理署及其提供保障的方式。我不會向同一個人在同一個洪水區進行多次重建提供相同的保險，並且提出多次索賠。另一方面，對於別無選擇的人來說，這是洪水帶來的第一次損失。我——從社會角度來看，我會保留它。

Okay. Really, appreciate the color. Thank you for the insights.

好的。確實，很欣賞這種顏色。感謝您的見解。

You're welcome

不客氣

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Evan. It was good to see global P&C growth, excluding FX, is fairly stable again this quarter at around 6 to 7, same as it's been in the last few quarters despite you guys stepping away from some large account property business. I guess can you -- that would imply that, I guess, growth on the other 80% of the book where conditions are attractive, accelerated a bit. Maybe you could just touch on that, just the durability of the growth on that 80%, where conditions are a bit more attractive? And then maybe just talk about on the other 20%, your outlook there?

你好，謝謝。早安.埃文。很高興看到本季全球財產和意外險增長（不包括外匯）再次相當穩定，約為 6 至 7，與過去幾個季度相同，儘管你們放棄了一些大帳戶財產業務。我想你能——這意味著，在條件有吸引力的情況下，其他 80% 的書籍的增長速度有所加快。也許您可以簡單談談這 80% 的成長的持久性，條件是否更具吸引力？然後也許只談另外 20%，你對此的看法？

Yeah. The pattern of growth, ex that 20%, first of all, overall, the math is pretty simple. It's double-digit growth. And when you add it all together, commercial and consumer P&C, the pattern of growth is durable. And the pace of growth, as we can see, look forward, is durable to us. The themes are durable.

是的。成長模式，例如那 20%，首先，整體而言，數學非常簡單。這是兩位數的成長。當你把商業和消費者財產及意外險加在一起時，成長模式是持久的。正如我們所見，展望未來，成長速度對我們來說是持久的。這些主題是持久的。

It's around middle market and small commercial. In the United States, we're the second largest middle market writer in the U.S. And between that and small commercial, the opportunity, and I've talked about it before, it's not just cyclical. It's secular to me, it's enduring.

它主要針對中型市場和小型商業。在美國，我們是美國第二大中型市場作家。在它和小型商業之間，機會，我之前已經談過，它不僅僅是周期性的。對我來說，它是世俗的，它是持久的。

Our high-net-worth business, which has been growing rapidly and our margins from repricing and remodeling and all the work we did over about a six year period from '16 through '20, '21 quietly, has put us in such a solid position. And I expect that pattern to continue both growth and the kinds of margin that it has generated.

我們的高淨值業務一直在快速成長，透過重新定價和改造所獲得的利潤，以及我們在 2016 年至 2020、21 年大約六年期間默默完成的所有工作，使我們處於如此穩固的地位。我預計這種模式將繼續增長並產生利潤。

When I look in Asia, and I look at the consumer businesses and the -- like Latin America, the digital distribution related growth for consumer business on one hand, and our growing agency auto business in selected countries on the other, and on our direct marketing A&H and our travel insurance business, more people travel in the region. That pattern of growth and opportunity continues.

當我放眼亞洲，我注意到消費者業務和拉丁美洲，一方面是消費者業務的數位分銷相關增長，另一方面是我們在特定國家不斷增長的代理汽車業務，以及我們的直接營銷 A&H 和旅遊保險業務，越來越多的人前往該地區旅行。這種成長和機會的模式仍在繼續。

And when I look at our middle market and small commercial because we are so deep in those markets, which is what it takes from Australia to Malaysia, to Thailand, to Singapore, to Taiwan, I expect it to continue to expand. When I look at our powerhouse business in Korea, which is a direct marketing -- fundamentally, a direct marketing A&H business with a life coat on.

當我看著我們的中型市場和小型商業市場時，由於我們在這些市場中擁有如此深厚的根基，從澳洲到馬來西亞、泰國、新加坡、台灣，我預計它將繼續擴張。當我看到我們在韓國的強大業務時，我就知道這是一種直銷業務——從根本上來說，這是一種披著救生衣的直銷 A&H 業務。

I expect that growth to not only continue, I expect in time for that to accelerate and to do better. So, throughout Asia, the themes of opportunity, commercial and consumer are enduring in front of us, like Latin America. It's a region that has, it's vast, it's multiples the size of Latin America. And it has a certain volatility signature to it. So it isn't every quarter exactly the same or every year exactly the same. But as I look at it, it's where we're leaning in, and we see more opportunity.

我預計這種成長不僅會持續下去，而且隨著時間的推移，這種成長會加速並取得更好的成績。因此，在整個亞洲，機會、商業和消費者的主題一直擺在我們面前，就像拉丁美洲一樣。這個地區非常廣闊，面積是拉丁美洲的數倍。並且它具有一定的波動性特徵。因此，並不是每季或每年都完全相同。但在我看來，這正是我們所傾向的，我們看到了更多的機會。

Our business in Europe, the same. It's not just a large commercial business and specialty. It is a middle market business, and it's expanding and growing more quickly in a variety of markets throughout. So overall, I look at this pattern of growth and I look at earnings, and I look at the stability of margin, and it all is about that diversification of the company.

我們在歐洲的業務也是一樣。這不僅僅是一個大型商業業務和專業領域。它是一家中型市場企業，並且在各個市場中擴張和成長更快。所以總的來說，我觀察這種成長模式、收益、利潤率的穩定性，這一切都與公司的多樣化有關。

Our E&S business in the U.S., and I'm going to finish with this. We printed about a 5.6% growth. Property was negative. You look under the covers of that and the balance of lines of business from construction to casualty, both primary and excess, our pet insurance business are growing nicely.

我們的 E&S 業務在美國，我將就此結束。我們實現了約 5.6% 的成長。財產為負數。縱觀這些情況以及從建築到意外險、主要險和超額險等業務線的平衡，我們的寵物保險業務都在良好成長。

Got it. Thanks for that. I appreciate that. And then just a quick follow-up. Just in North America personal lines great to see another quarter of current accident year ex-cat loss ratio improvement. Is that purely rate earning in over trend? Or was there anything else in there in the result that drove that improvement this quarter?

知道了。謝謝。我很感激。然後只是快速的跟進。光是在北美個人險領域，我們就很高興看到本年度事故損失率又一個季度有所改善。這純粹是利率獲利過度趨勢嗎？或者還有其他因素推動了本季業績的改善？

No, it's a combination, rate over trend, it's over a period of time. I mean that's been iterative over years that has occurred. And I said drop over time into the 70s and that's what it's done. That's what it needs to do, given it's CAT exposure. But it's that and it's underwriting shaping of the portfolio. We just grow more insightful. We have more tools available. And we have a greater knowledge and ability, that’s a standout of who we are on being in the high-net-worth business. It’s very complex underwriting. And the property exposures are very complicated. And our insight into underwriting and managing that stands out and we focus on that. Rate will never be enough to get you there. Underwriting doesn't equal rate. It equals risk selection and insight into risk engineering and managing the properties.

不，它是一個組合，是速率與趨勢的結合，是一段時間內的結合。我的意思是這種情況多年來一直在反覆發生。我說隨著時間的推移，它會下降到 70 年代，而事實也是如此。考慮到其 CAT 暴露情況，這就是它需要做的。但就是這樣，它承保了投資組合的塑造。我們只是變得更有洞察力。我們有更多可用的工具。我們擁有更豐富的知識和能力，這是我們在高淨值業務領域的突出優勢。這是非常複雜的承保。而且財產風險非常複雜。我們對核保和管理的洞察力非常突出，我們專注於此。利率永遠不足以讓你到達那裡。承保不等於利率。它等同於風險選擇和對風險工程和管理財產的洞察。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

Yes. Thanks. Evan, I'm just curious, looking at the North American commercial, right now, we're seeing written pricing, call it, below loss trend, it looks like -- are we at a period now for that business that we're seeing kind of peak margins, and we should maybe expect margin to deteriorate going forward here, granted from a very attractive level?

是的。謝謝。埃文，我只是好奇，看看現在的北美商業，我們看到的書面定價，稱之為低於虧損趨勢，看起來——我們現在是否正處於該業務的利潤率達到峰值的時期，我們或許應該預計利潤率在未來會下降，儘管這是一個非常有吸引力的水平？

I think that's simplistic. Yes, the headline number, but that's why you peel it back. Casualty is ahead of loss cost trend. On the other hand, property right now is, pricing is negative, and there is a more modest loss cost trend, but that loss cost trend is there. So one is going one way, one is going the other way. And on the other hand, we grew professional -- we grew financial lines this quarter, first time in most of our portfolios, not all, but most in quite a while. And in certain areas, we're beginning to get rate. And then I look at comp and comp pricing was better than the prior quarter. So there's puts and takes on it. And then as our mix of business changes. So you look at it, our loss ratio overall across the globe dropped, North America loss ratio, commercial was flat. And that's a mix of business change occurring as well, more mid and small versus large and then within E&S, a shift. So I don't envision, as I look from what I see right now, the deterioration as your mental model, if you do it too simplistically, I would imagine.

我認為這太簡單了。是的，這是標題數字，但這就是你剝開它的原因。傷亡趨勢領先於損失成本趨勢。另一方面，目前的房地產價格為負值，損失成本趨勢較為溫和，但損失成本趨勢仍然存在。所以，一個人走這條路，一個人走另一條路。另一方面，我們的專業化程度有所提高——本季度我們的金融業務有所增長，這是我們大多數投資組合中第一次出現這種情況，雖然不是全部，但這是相當長一段時間以來的大多數情況。在某些領域，我們開始獲得速度。然後我查看了一下公司狀況，公司定價比上一季更好。因此，這其中存在著利弊。然後隨著我們的業務組合而改變。所以你看，我們全球的整體損失率下降了，北美的商業損失率持平。這也是一種業務變化的混合體，中小型企業與大型企業相比有所增加，並且在 E&S 內部也發生了轉變。因此，從我現在看到的情況來看，如果你把它想得太簡單，我想像不到你的思維模型會惡化。

That's really helpful. And then second question, I'm just curious, and I think you've chatted about this a little bit in the past, a number of large health care insurance companies have had some issues with medical cost inflation. And I'm wondering how that could potentially affect the P&C insurance business workers' comp. How are you thinking about that in the context of Chubb?

這真的很有幫助。第二個問題，我只是好奇，我想您過去已經談過這個問題了，許多大型醫療保險公司都遇到了醫療成本上漲的問題。我想知道這會對財產和意外保險業務工人補償產生什麼影響。在 Chubb 的背景下，您如何看待這個問題？

Yeah. The medical inflation, remember, there's -- comp is different that way. And we have been careful, first of all, in our loss cost trend factors we used in reserving for medical, where we use factors that, frankly, are ahead of what we observed because it has a long-tail to it. And by the idiosyncratic nature, what we see in health insurance companies, what drives the trend there in medical inflation is not the same factors that affect comp. And so we're not seeing it there.

是的。請記住，醫療通膨是不同的。首先，我們在為醫療儲備使用的損失成本趨勢因素方面非常謹慎，坦白說，我們使用的因素超出了我們觀察到的範圍，因為它具有長尾效應。而且，由於其特殊性，我們在健康保險公司中看到，推動醫療通膨趨勢的因素與影響公司績效的因素並不相同。所以我們在那裡看不到它。

Thanks.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

Good, great. Thanks so much, and good morning. Evan, I was hoping you could talk about how sensitive your large domestic accounts are to social inflation in terms of the coverage that they're looking for. Is demand for more coverage, more deeper, broader coverage. Is that changing in response to elevated social inflation?

很好，非常好。非常感謝，早安。埃文，我希望你能談談你們的大型國內帳戶在他們尋求的覆蓋範圍內對社會通膨的敏感程度。需求是覆蓋範圍更大、更深、更廣。這種狀況是否會因社會通膨上升而改變？

Well, they always like to buy deeper and broader coverage and have a positive arbitrage with insurance companies. The trend has gone the other way. Over the last couple of years, last bunch of years, terms and conditions around casualty, it varies by area, obviously, particularly anything with logistics and automobile trucking related retail, slip and fall, et cetera. And those have been really the areas experiencing social inflation, which is true in middle market as well, separate from class actions around a chemical or something in the stream of commerce that way, let's separate them out.

嗯，他們總是喜歡購買更深、更廣泛的保險，並與保險公司進行正向套利。但趨勢卻發生了逆轉。在過去的幾年裡，在過去的幾年裡，有關傷亡的條款和條件顯然因地區而異，特別是與物流和汽車運輸相關的零售、滑倒和跌倒等。這些領域確實經歷了社會通膨，中端市場也是如此，與圍繞化學品或商業流通中的某種東西的集體訴訟分開，讓我們將它們區分開來。

Terms and conditions have tight retentions. I mean that's what I talked about for you'll recall for a multiyear period where we were reshaping the book and took a hit to revenue. Who cares because we were adjusting client retentions, which leaves more with them, no dollar swapping, while prices increased for the layers above the dollar swap because frequency and severity of loss is increasing and has been increasing. I think there's an equilibrium that is being achieved now where the terms and conditions and the pricing reflect and are keeping pace with what is a hostile liability environment.

條款和條件有嚴格的保留。我的意思是，這就是我所說的，你會記得，在多年的時間裡，我們一直在重塑這本書，但這對收入造成了打擊。誰在乎呢，因為我們正在調整客戶保留率，這給他們留下了更多，沒有美元掉期，而美元掉期以上層級的價格卻上漲了，因為損失的頻率和嚴重程度正在增加並且一直在增加。我認為現在已經實現了一種平衡，其中條款和條件以及定價反映並跟上了惡劣的責任環境。

And so -- and there is that balance between client and carrier. But they make no bones about it. There's been more of a shift of risk back to client because why would you dollar swap. And then there has been inflation, extreme inflation in liability insurance premiums to reflect the risk that we are, in fact, taking. To a degree, you can't say that the middle market is immune from that at all. Case and point, I'll just point you to middle market commercial auto as a poster child for the last number of years, a bunch of years, and a very difficult line for middle market carriers, and that's all about litigation, social inflation. It's a poster child for it.

所以——客戶和營運商之間存在著平衡。但他們對此毫不掩飾。風險更多地轉移回客戶身上，因為你為什麼要進行美元互換。然後就出現了通貨膨脹，責任保險費的極端通貨膨脹反映了我們實際上承擔的風險。從某種程度上來說，你不能說中端市場完全不受這種影響。舉個例子，我只想指出中型商用汽車市場在過去幾年中是一個典型例子，中型商用汽車市場營運商的處境非常艱難，而這一切都與訴訟和社會通膨有關。它是它的典型代表。

Okay. That is tremendously helpful. Second question, on the international side, is there any way of I guess, breaking down growth between market share gains of current products and adding more sophisticated insurance products to markets where the economy is developing, but where Chubb would presumably have less competition.

好的。這非常有幫助。第二個問題，在國際方面，我猜想，有沒有辦法將成長分為現有產品的市場份額增長和向經濟發展中的市場添加更複雜的保險產品，而丘博在這些市場中的競爭可能較少。

It's a combination of both. We're driving in and gaining market share. There is, on one hand -- no, there's a third one in there. Number two, new insurance buyers, those economies are growing. So, lots of new businesses and not just new businesses but new industries as those economies develop. And so it's not -- where middle market may have been Main Street retail and restaurants and shop owners. It now expands as the economies develop. They have more technology-related and services-related businesses, et cetera, that develop with the economy on this. People have more money. So it's new buyers, new industries and then you're adding product and locals don't have it. It could be from professional liability, to cyber insurance, to environmental liability, to their change to a more carbon neutral as those economies shift and new energy related industries, whether it's wind or solar, et cetera. So, it's multi-dimensional when you look at it and it varies by market. There's not sort of one theme covering all of them. These are individual countries.

這是兩者的結合。我們正在努力擴大市場佔有率。一方面，有──不，裡面還有第三個。第二，新的保險購買者，這些經濟體正在成長。因此，隨著經濟的發展，出現了許多新企業，不僅是新業務，還有新產業。所以它不是——中端市場可能是主街零售店、餐廳和商店老闆。隨著經濟的發展，它現在不斷擴大。他們擁有更多與技術、服務等相關的業務，這些業務隨著經濟的發展而發展。人們有了更多的錢。因此，有了新買家、新產業，然後你加入了當地人沒有的產品。它可能涉及專業責任、網路保險、環境責任，以及隨著經濟轉型而向碳中和轉變，以及新能源相關產業，無論是風能還是太陽能，等等。因此，從多維角度來看，它是隨著市場變化而變化的。沒有一個主題能夠涵蓋所有這些內容。這些是個別國家。

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you so much.

好的。這非常有幫助。太感謝了。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Mike Zaremski。

Hey, great. Good morning. Going back to the social inflation conversation. On the North America commercial loss trend, which I believe you said is around 6.5 . Is there a way to kind of tease out or estimate how much of that is attributed to litigation finance or social inflation more broadly, is there a way to kind of think about that?

嘿，太棒了。早安.回到社會通膨話題。關於北美商業損失趨勢，我相信您說的是 6.5 左右。有沒有辦法可以梳理或估計其中有多少可以更廣泛地歸因於訴訟融資或社會通膨，有沒有辦法可以考慮這一點？

It's not an easy number to break out. But we do our own private work around that and information and our ability to measure where there is litigation financing or not is growing, but it's still not clear. It's not transparent enough yet.

這個數字並不容易突破。但我們圍繞著這一點開展自己的私人工作，資訊和衡量是否存在訴訟融資的能力正在增強，但仍然不清楚。它還不夠透明。

Okay. That's fair. I appreciate that it’s complicated.

好的。這很公平。我知道這很複雜。

What we can measure that I think, frankly -- I want to help you with your question. It varies. What we can see very clearly, it varies by state to a very large degree. And that is the liability laws. We can measure how much comparative negligence as an example, depending on the law around comparative negligence. So, I may be the only party in a suit that has money. And yet, I was only 15% liable. But in that state, I'm required to pay 100% of the loss, if no one else can. And then comparative negligence between the claimant and the defense and the litigant, what is comparative fault and how do you put dollar amounts around it. We can measure those things economically. And know that this kind of law change in this place will have this kind of impact. And by the way, that's what's driving a Louisiana or a Florida or a Georgia to tort reform.

坦白說，我認為我們可以衡量什麼——我想幫助您解答您的問題。它因人而異。我們可以清楚地看到，各州之間的差異非常大。這就是責任法。舉例來說，我們可以衡量比較過失的程度，這取決於有關比較過失的法律。所以，我可能是唯一一個有錢的西裝筆挺的人。然而，我只承擔 15% 的責任。但在那種情況下，如果沒有其他人可以承擔，我就必須支付 100% 的損失。然後是原告、被告和訴訟當事人之間的比較過失，什麼是比較過失以及如何用金錢來衡量。我們可以用經濟手段來衡量這些事情。並且知道這個地方的這種法律變化會產生這種影響。順便說一句，這正是推動路易斯安那州、佛羅裡達州或喬治亞州進行侵權法改革的動力。

Got it. That's helpful. Maybe pivoting as my follow-up, the larger account property marketplace, which you gave good commentary on. Is there a way to think, perspectively, given the kind of extent of the pricing declines from a modeling perspective, would it be fair to say that if we have a normal catastrophe or loss year in the remainder of the year that this is kind of the worst would be behind us? Or is it just too tough to size up and we'll see what competitive dynamics do next year or later this year?

知道了。這很有幫助。也許作為我的後續行動，轉向更大的帳戶房地產市場，您對此給出了很好的評論。是否可以從模型角度考慮價格下跌的程度，是否可以公平地說，如果我們在今年剩餘時間內遇到正常的災難或損失年，那麼最糟糕的時期已經過去了？或者說，這太難評估了，我們再看看明年或今年稍後的競爭動態如何？

I'm sorry, Mike. For a moment, I blanked out on you because a colleague was telling me to mention non-economic damages in liability which is another issue, and we can measure it. Were you talking about property insurance? And if we have…

對不起，麥克。有一會兒，我忘記了你，因為一位同事告訴我，在責任中提到非經濟損失，這是另一個問題，我們可以衡量它。您說的是財產保險嗎？如果我們有…

Yeah. I guess this large account property, investors have asked us a lot of questions about just the extent of the price decrease.

是的。我想，對於這個大帳戶資產，投資人已經問了我們很多關於價格下跌幅度的問題。

Here is the mental model I want to give you, others who are listening about this. Large account buys large limits to the property. They break it up into these layers and it becomes simply a trading business, if you're not the one issuing the paper and managing the claims, and doing the engineering, and issuing policies all over the world for them, which most have no capability to do, Chubb does. And therefore, they throw the business in a dog bowl when there's so much capital that's hungry, they eat layers out of the bowl. So, they place it that way.

這是我想給你們以及其他正在聽這個主題的人提供的心理模型。大額帳戶購買大額度的房產。他們將其分解成這些層級，使其成為一項簡單的交易業務，如果你不是為他們發行文件、管理索賠、進行工程設計和在世界各地簽發保單的人（大多數人沒有能力做到這一點），那麼 Chubb 可以。因此，當資本如此之多、飢不擇食時，他們就把企業丟進狗碗裡，從碗裡一層層吃掉。所以，他們就這麼放置它。

London and a number of other carriers, whether it is E&S related or it's admitted related, come to play and you get this frenzy when there's too much capital, please give me a share because it looks well kept. It responds over time to loss cost, both the, if you underprice it. And we're not -- we're on the edge of that right now. And they -- and so it will respond to major catastrophes, it will respond to frequency of attritional loss that will occur over time. And whether it is in one season will depend on how major the CATs are and how many of them are and where are they. So not a simple answer, but ultimately in the business, you got to get an adequate price to make any money. Economics don't change, just a timing question.

倫敦和許多其他承運商，無論是與 E&S 相關還是承認相關的，都來參與其中，當資本過多時，你就會陷入這種狂熱，請給我一份股份，因為它看起來保存得很好。如果您低估它，它會隨著時間的推移對損失成本做出反應。而我們還沒有——我們現在正處於這一邊緣。因此，它將應對重大災難，它將應對隨著時間推移而發生的損耗頻率。而是否在一個季節內舉行將取決於 CAT 的重要性、數量以及它們在哪裡舉行。所以這不是一個簡單的答案，但最終在生意中，你必須獲得適當的價格才能賺錢。經濟不會改變，只是時間問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Vikram Gandhi, HSBC.

維克拉姆甘地，匯豐銀行。

Hi, good morning. I hope you can hear me. Thank you for the opportunity. I have a question on the investment income, which has a flat lined over the past three quarters despite a reasonable growth in investment portfolio.

嗨，早安。我希望你能聽到我的聲音。感謝您提供的機會。我有一個關於投資收益的問題，儘管投資組合有合理的成長，但過去三個季度的投資收益卻持平。

I see the duration has been pretty stable. ForEx, if anything should have helped the past quarter. So does it all boil down to the pressure on yields outside the US? And then I do hear your comment about positive trajectory of investment income over the next quarter. And I wonder what really changes that.

我發現持續時間一直相當穩定。ForEx，如果有的話應該對上個季度有所幫助。那麼，這一切是否都歸功於美國以外地區的殖利率壓力呢？然後我確實聽到了您關於下一季投資收益呈積極趨勢的評論。我想知道是什麼真正改變了這種狀況。

Vikram, it's Peter. I think in the prior quarters, we disclosed that in certain quarters, we had lower-than-expected private equity related income which can be volatile. And at the same time, what we're signaling with the forward guidance is as the cash flows have come into the portfolio particularly over the last quarter that we expect investment income to continue to grow quite nicely.

維克拉姆，我是彼得。我認為在前幾個季度，我們披露過，在某些季度，我們的私募股權相關收入低於預期，而且可能會出現波動。同時，我們透過前瞻性指引發出的信號是，隨著現金流進入投資組合，特別是在上個季度，我們預計投資收益將繼續保持良好的成長。

Okay. So if I understand currently, it's really the alternative income coming in, that going to help in Q3.

好的。所以如果我現在理解的話，這實際上是替代收入的流入，這將有助於第三季。

A combination of the alternative coming out of which a component can more variable and a component is fairly stable. And then the cash flow is coming in the portfolio, which have been quite significant over the past quarter, which next quarter will have the full benefit of.

替代方案的組合，其中一個組件可以更加多變，而另一個組件則相當穩定。然後，現金流進入投資組合，這在過去一個季度相當可觀，下個季度將會充分受益。

Growing invested assets.

投資資產不斷成長。

Which is why I pointed out the $6 billion increase.

這就是我指出增加 60 億美元的原因。

Thank you. Okay. And a follow-up, just curious on your thoughts around share buybacks since the mix change in the business might probably mean the -- even though there is growth in the business, it might not be as capital intensive. So what's the best way for us to think about share buybacks going forward?

謝謝。好的。接下來，我只是好奇您對股票回購的看法，因為業務組合的變化可能意味著——即使業務有所成長，但資本密集程度可能並不高。那麼，我們思考未來股票回購的最佳方式是什麼？

Yes. We don't give guidance and nothing's really changed, right. We keep capital for risk and opportunity, and we continue to see significant opportunity. You'll see that we have continued to buy back on a regular basis. We bought back more this quarter than the prior quarter.

是的。我們沒有提供指導，而且什麼都沒有改變，對吧。我們為風險和機會保留資本，我們繼續看到重大機會。您會發現我們一直在定期回購。我們本季的回購量比上一季增加。

We're not going to do it on a consistent basis, we will flex based on what we see happening in the market and what we see in the stock market -- in our stock, what we see happening in the insurance market.

我們不會一直這樣做，我們會根據市場、股票市場、保險市場的情況做出彈性調整。

And as you see, we just reauthorized $5 billion open-ended for share repurchase.

如您所見，我們剛剛重新授權 50 億美元無限期股票回購。

Right. Okay. Thank you.

正確的。好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Hey, for the first one, I just wanted to ask about reinsurance. And see if you could provide more color around just the step down in premiums and how you're finding the market in terms of just relative attractiveness and price adequacy.

嘿，首先，我只是想問一下再保險的問題。看看您是否可以提供更多關於保費下降的信息，以及您如何從相對吸引力和價格適度的角度來看待市場。

The reinsurance business, we wrote a large structured transaction last year (inaudible). Excluding that, growth was rather muted and that was more property related. It’s not a big deal, we just simply didn't like the trades. And so we're disciplined and didn't chase it.

再保險業務，我們去年進行了一筆大型結構性交易（聽不清楚）。除此之外，增長相當緩慢，而且更多地與房地產有關。這沒什麼大不了的，我們只是不喜歡這些交易。因此我們很自律，沒有去追逐它。

Thank you. Understood, understood. Second question I had is on capital and just how you're viewing excess capital? If you could update us on that and just sort of the pecking order of things you're interested in and if there's any heightened interest around M&A at all?

謝謝。明白了，明白了。我的第二個問題是關於資本以及您如何看待過剩資本？您能否向我們介紹一下這一情況，以及您感興趣的事物的等級順序，以及對併購是否有任何濃厚的興趣？

We're deploying our capital in ways that are accretive to our ROE, whether it is deployed to support insurance business, it's deployed to support our invested asset and our investment management strategy. So we feel quite good about our management around the capital we hold.

我們正在以增加 ROE 的方式部署我們的資本，無論是用於支援保險業務，還是用於支持我們的投資資產和投資管理策略。因此，我們對所持有資本的管理感到非常滿意。

At the same time, it provides us flexibility and opportunity which is the second derivative for growth in our business, organic or inorganic that may occur from time to time. And finally, we return capital as Peter went through to shareholders in a reasonably steady way through both dividends and share repurchase, which together was over $1 billion this quarter.

同時，它為我們提供了靈活性和機會，這是我們業務成長的第二個衍生品，無論是有機成長還是無機成長，都可能不時發生。最後，我們透過股利和股票回購以相當穩定的方式將彼得所獲得的資本返還給股東，本季總計超過 10 億美元。

Thanks a lot, Alex.

非常感謝，亞歷克斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, thank you, Alex. And again, that does conclude our question-and-answer session today. Thank you all so much. And I would now like to turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for closing remarks. Karen?

是的，謝謝你，亞歷克斯。今天的問答環節到此結束。非常感謝大家。現在我想將電話轉回給卡倫拜爾 (Karen Beyer) 做最後發言。卡倫？

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. And if you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thank you.

感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，我們將隨時接聽您的電話。享受這一天。謝謝。

Thanks, Karen. And ladies and gentlemen, again, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝，凱倫。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入，現在可以斷開連線了。