丘博保險集團 (CB) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的耐心等待。我叫艾瑞克，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我謹代表 Chubb Limited 向大家歡迎參加 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係高級副總裁凱倫·拜爾。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to our September 30, 2025, Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們於2025年9月30日舉行的第三季財報電話會議。

Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to Company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.

我們今天的報告將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與公司業績、定價和業務組合、成長機會以及經濟和市場狀況相關的陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件、收益報告和財務補充文件，這些文件可在我們的網站 investors.chubb.com 上查閱，以了解可能影響這些事項的因素的更多資​​訊。

We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures, and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

今天我們也將提及非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的調節表及相關詳情已在我們的獲利新聞稿和財務補充文件中提供。

Now, I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. Then, we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions today are several members of our management team. And now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

現在，我來介紹一下我們的演講嘉賓。首先是董事長兼執行長埃文·格林伯格，其次是財務長彼得·恩斯。接下來，我們將回答您的問題。今天，我們管理團隊的幾位成員也來到現場，協助您解答疑問。現在，我很高興把電話交給艾文。

Good morning. As you saw from the numbers, we had an excellent quarter, in fact a record earnings quarter. Core operating income of $3 billion was up 29%, leading to EPS of $7.49 per share, up 31% from a year ago, both supported by record underwriting and investment results, as well as solid premium revenue growth.

早安.正如您從數據中看到的，我們本季業績非常出色，事實上，這是創紀錄的獲利季度。核心營業收入達 30 億美元，成長 29%，每股收益達 7.49 美元，比上年同期成長 31%，這得益於創紀錄的承保和投資業績，以及穩健的保費收入成長。

The results put a point on the broad-based and diversified nature of our company geographically, by customer segment and by product area. Most of our businesses in regions of the world contributed. Geographically, that means North America, Asia, Latin America and UK/ Europe. When I say customer segments that contributed strong growth this quarter, that means, globally, both consumer – homeowners and auto, specialty personal lines, life, and international A&H.

結果凸顯了我們公司在地理、客戶群和產品領域方面的廣泛性和多元化特徵。我們在世界各地的大多數業務都做出了貢獻。從地理上看，這意味著北美、亞洲、拉丁美洲和英國/歐洲。我說本季為強勁成長做出貢獻的客戶群，指的是全球範圍內的消費者——房主和汽車、專業個人保險、人壽保險以及國際意外和健康保險。

When I say commercial P&C, particularly middle market and small commercial, our E&S business, crop insurance and a broad range of large account casualty and financial lines. And growth was generated by numerous distribution sources – brokerage, agency, phone-based direct marketing and digital. In short, a wide variety of diverse businesses and geographies that are contributing to growth globally.

我說的是商業財產保險，特別是中小型商業保險、我們的環境和社會保險業務、農作物保險以及各種大型客戶的意外傷害和金融保險業務。成長是由眾多分銷管道帶來的，包括經紀、代理商、電話直銷和數位管道。簡而言之，各種各樣的不同企業和地理都在為全球成長做出貢獻。

Our balance of business and presence – about half U.S. and half outside – provides a wide range of opportunities, which supports long-term profitable growth. Importantly, it also supports our ability to manage the commercial P&C cycle with discipline – something we are well known for doing. We expect to continue generating superior margin and earnings growth and, in fact, an increase to our return on shareholder equity.

我們的業務和佈局——大約一半在美國，一半在國外——提供了廣泛的機遇，從而支持長期獲利成長。重要的是，它也有助於我們以嚴謹的態度管理商業財產和意外傷害週期——而這正是我們聞名遐邇的。我們預計將繼續實現優異的利潤率和獲利成長，事實上，股東權益回報率也將有所提高。

In the quarter, record underwriting income on both a published and current accident year ex-CAT basis was supported, of course, by a quiet CAT quarter, but more importantly by current underwriting year margin improvement and strong prior period development. Published underwriting income of $2.3 billion was up 55% from a year ago, with a record combined ratio of 81.8% – about six percentage points better than a year earlier.

本季度，無論是以已公佈的事故年度或當前事故年度（不包括巨災）計算，承保收入均創歷史新高。當然，這得益於巨災季度較為平靜，但更重要的是，得益於當前承保年度利潤率的提高以及前期強勁的發展。公佈的承保收入為 23 億美元，比上年同期增長 55%，綜合比率創歷史新高，達到 81.8%——比上年同期改善約 6 個百分點。

Though CAT losses were light in the quarter, rest assured catastrophe risk is alive, well, and, obviously, by definition, volatile. Remember the California wildfires first quarter and convective storm activity through much of the year.

儘管本季巨災損失較小，但可以肯定的是，巨災風險依然存在，而且顯然，根據定義，它具有波動性。請記住加州第一季的山火以及貫穿全年大部分時間的對流風暴活動。

CAT volatility aside, our underlying underwriting results were simply excellent in the quarter. Current accident year underwriting income, excluding CATs was a record $2.2 billion, up 10%, supported by a combined ratio of 82.5%, nearly a full point improvement from prior year, with most all of it coming from loss ratio improvement.

撇開巨災波動不談，我們本季的基礎承保業績非常出色。今年事故保險承保收入（不包括巨災）創歷史新高，達到 22 億美元，成長 10%，綜合比率為 82.5%，比前一年改善了近一個百分點，其中大部分來自賠付率的改善。

On the invested asset side, for the quarter, adjusted net investment income was a record $1.8 billion, up 8.3%. Our fixed income portfolio yield is 5.1%, and our current new money rate is averaging 5.2%. Our operating cash flow in the quarter was quite strong, at $4.5 billion, which is contributing to strong growth in our invested asset, which is up nearly 10% over the last 12 months.

從投資資產來看，本季調整後的淨投資收益為創紀錄的 18 億美元，成長 8.3%。我們的固定收益投資組合報酬率為 5.1%，目前的新貨幣利率平均為 5.2%。本季我們的營運現金流非常強勁，達到 45 億美元，這有助於我們的投資資產強勁成長，在過去 12 個月中成長了近 10%。

Current fiscal, financial and economic conditions favor attractive fixed income and alternative asset portfolio returns for our growing invested asset. Federal budget deficits, inflation, and rotation from the dollar support what we believe will be a steeper yield curve as we look to the future, which in turn should support our reinvestment rates and future investment income growth.

目前的財政、金融和經濟狀況有利於為我們不斷增長的投資資產帶來具有吸引力的固定收益和另類資產組合回報。聯邦預算赤字、通貨膨脹以及美元輪動都支撐著我們認為未來殖利率曲線將更加陡峭的趨勢，而這反過來又應該會支撐我們的再投資率和未來的投資收益成長。

Tangible book value growth, our primary measure of wealth creation, was 17% per share from a year ago and 6.6% from the previous quarter. Our annualized core operating return on tangible equity in the quarter was 24.5% – simply an outstanding result.

有形帳面價值成長（我們衡量財富創造的主要指標）較上年同期成長 17%，較上一季成長 6.6%。本季我們按年計算的核心營運有形權益回報率為 24.5%——這絕對是傑出的成績。

Peter's going to have more to say about financial items in a couple of minutes.

彼得稍後還會就財務方面的問題發表更多看法。

Turning to growth, pricing and the rate environment, total company premiums grew 7.5%, with consumer up almost 16% and commercial up 3.3%. Commercial P&C growth this quarter was impacted by two items that benefited North America last year. Our underlying renewable Commercial P&C business grew about 5.5%, which is more representative of our run rate. Premiums in our Life Insurance division grew over 24.5%.

從成長、定價和費率環境來看，公司總保費成長了 7.5%，其中消費者保費成長了近 16%，商業保費成長了 3.3%。本季商業財產保險和意外險的成長受到去年有利於北美地區的兩項因素的影響。我們的基礎再生能源商業財產及意外傷害業務成長了約 5.5%，這更能代表我們的正常成長率。我們人壽保險部門的保費成長超過 24.5%。

In terms of the commercial P&C underwriting environment, I would characterize the market globally as in transition. Competition continues to grow, especially large account-related short-tail business, both admitted and E&S. A lot more capital is chasing the property business and prices are softening, while terms and conditions remain steady.

就商業財產險承保環境而言，我認為全球市場正處於轉型期。競爭持續加劇，尤其是與大客戶相關的短期業務，包括已批准的業務和 E&S 業務。更多資金湧入房地產行業，價格走軟，而條款和條件保持不變。

On the other hand, middle market and small commercial property is more disciplined and orderly, though greater competition is beginning to show, as expected, particularly in upper middle market. In mid-market property, rates continue to rise, but naturally at a slower pace. Casualty pricing overall – large account, E&S and middle market – is also slowing, though it continues to firm in the areas that require rate. It's quite rational. Financial lines remain soft, but we're seeing signs affirming in discrete classes.

另一方面，中小型商業房地產市場更加規範有序，儘管正如預期的那樣，競爭也開始加劇，尤其是在中高端市場。中端房地產市場的利率仍在上漲，但漲幅自然會放緩。整體意外險定價（包括大客戶、超額和特殊險以及中端市場）也在放緩，儘管在需要費率的領域，定價仍然保持強勁。這很合乎邏輯。金融市場依然疲軟，但我們看到一些特定領域的跡象正在改善。

I'll give you some more color by division.

我將透過除法向你展示更多顏色。

For a change let's begin this quarter with our international business. Premiums in our Overseas General division were up 9.7%, or nearly 7.5% in constant dollars. Consumer was up 15.5% and commercial lines grew nearly 6%. From a region of the world perspective, Asia grew over 14%. Europe grew almost 5%, and Latin America grew over 10.5%. Consumer lines grew more than 25% in Asia and more than 12.5% in Latin America.

換個角度，讓我們從本季的國際業務開始。我們海外一般保險部門的保費上漲了 9.7%，以不變美元計算上漲了近 7.5%。消費者業務成長了 15.5%，商業業務成長了近 6%。從世界區域角度來看，亞洲成長超過 14%。歐洲經濟成長近 5%，拉丁美洲經濟成長超過 10.5%。亞洲消費品銷售額成長超過 25%，拉丁美洲消費品銷售額成長超過 12.5%。

Premiums in our London wholesale business were up over 8.5%. Our international retail and E&S business again illustrates the power of Chubb diversification.

我們在倫敦的批發業務溢價上漲了 8.5% 以上。我們的國際零售和環境及社會業務再次證明了 Chubb 多元化經營的力量。

In our international retail commercial business, P&C rates were down 1.3% and financial lines rates were down over 8%.

在我們的國際零售商業業務中，財產險費率下降了 1.3%，金融險費率下降了 8% 以上。

Turning to North America, total P&C premiums were up 4.4%, including over 8% in personal lines and 3.5% growth in Commercial. Adjusting for the two non-recurring items we wrote last year that did not repeat this year, renewable premiums in our North America commercial business grew 6.2%, with P&C lines up 5.8% and financial lines up almost 8.5%.

再來看北美，財產和意外保險總保費上漲了 4.4%，其中個人保險成長超過 8%，商業保險成長 3.5%。扣除去年我們承保的兩項今年沒有再次發生的非經常性項目後，我們在北美商業業務的可續保費增長了 6.2%，其中財產險和意外險增長了 5.8%，金融險增長了近 8.5%。

Drilling down, our North America high net worth personal lines business generated more than $1.8 billion in net written premium for the quarter. This business is now almost as large as our North America middle market and major accounts commercial businesses, each with premiums in the quarter of $2.1 billion, again illustrating our company's diversification.

進一步分析，我們北美高淨值個人保險業務本季淨保費收入超過 18 億美元。這項業務現在幾乎與我們在北美的中端市場和主要客戶商業業務一樣大，這兩個業務的季度保費收入均為 21 億美元，再次證明了我們公司的多元化經營。

Premium growth for our true high-net-worth segments was about 11.5%.

我們真正的高淨值客戶群的溢價成長率約為 11.5%。

On the commercial P&C side in North America, premiums in our middle market business, where we are the second largest writer in the U.S., grew 4.1% to $2.1 billion. Middle market workers comp growth was impacted by one of the 2024-year items I mentioned, namely, an annual retrospective premium exposure adjustment which we make every year in the third quarter that benefited us much less this year than last. Adjusting for that, we grew middle market almost 7% with P&C lines up 8.6% and financial lines flat.

在北美商業財產險方面，我們作為美國第二大保險公司的中端市場業務的保費增長了 4.1%，達到 21 億美元。中端市場工傷賠償成長受到我提到的 2024 年專案之一的影響，即我們每年第三​​季進行的年度追溯保費風險調整，今年為我們帶來的收益遠小於去年。考慮到這一點，我們的中端市場業務成長了近 7%，其中財產險業務成長了 8.6%，金融險業務持平。

Premiums in Major Accounts & Specialty grew 2.5%, and with major up 3.2% and E&S up 6.6%. The major accounts division was up 5.6% adjusting for the impact of a large one-off LPT written last year.

主要客戶和特殊客戶的保費成長了 2.5%，其中主要客戶成長了 3.2%，特殊客戶和特殊客戶的保費成長了 6.6%。在調整去年一筆數額龐大的一次性 LPT 交易的影響後，大客戶部門成長了 5.6%。

In North America commercial, we had a very good quarter for new business – up 24% versus prior year – with double digit growth in major, specialty, middle-market and small commercial. Our renewal retention rate on a policy count basis was over 86%.

在北美商業領域，我們的新業務季度表現非常出色——比去年同期增長了 24%——主要市場、專業市場、中端市場和小規模商業市場均實現了兩位數的成長。以保單數量計算，我們的續保率超過 86%。

Commercial pricing for property and casualty excluding financial lines and comp was up 4.3%, with rates up 2.4% and exposure change of 1.9%. Property pricing was flat, with rates down 3.3%, and exposure change of 3.5%. And going a step further, Property pricing was down 13.5% in large account business and E&S, and up 6.2% in middle market and small commercial. Casualty pricing in North America was up 8%, with rates up 7.5% and exposure up 0.5%.

不包括金融險和綜合險的財產和意外傷害商業保險定價上漲了 4.3%，其中費率上漲了 2.4%，風險敞口變化了 1.9%。房地產價格維持平穩，利率下降 3.3%，風險敞口變動 3.5%。更進一步來說，大型客戶業務和 E&S 的房地產定價下降了 13.5%，而中型市場和小型商業的房地產定價則上漲了 6.2%。北美地區的意外傷害保險定價上漲了 8%，其中費率上漲了 7.5%，風險敞口上漲了 0.5%。

Financial lines pricing was down almost 2%, and the workers comp, primary comp pricing was flat, while large account risk management pricing was up almost 5%.

金融險定價下降了近 2%，工傷賠償險和主要賠償險定價持平，而大帳戶風險管理定價上漲了近 5%。

In North America commercial, there was no change to our selected loss-cost trends.

在北美商業領域，我們選定的損失成本趨勢並沒有改變。

In our international Life Insurance business, which is fundamentally Asia, premiums were up 26.5%. We had a large one-time premium in New Zealand; adjusting for that, growth was up just over 16.5%. In North America, Combined Insurance Company premiums were up 18%. Our life division produced $324 million of pre-tax income in the quarter, up over 14%.

在我們的國際人壽保險業務（主要集中在亞洲）中，保費上漲了 26.5%。我們在新西蘭獲得了一筆數額巨大的一次性溢價；扣除這筆溢價後，增長率略高於 16.5%。在北美，聯合保險公司的保費上漲了 18%。本季度，我們的壽險部門實現了 3.24 億美元的稅前收入，成長超過 14%。

Chubb's fundamentals and our positioning are excellent. We are performing at a high level almost anywhere you look in the company. We have broad global diversification and a disciplined, energized and talented team of professionals whom I couldn't be more proud of to call my colleagues. We are reaping results and planting seeds for the future. Our digital and AI efforts, years in the making, are contributing to growth and beginning to transform the company and how we do business. Our balance sheet, starting with loss reserves, has never been stronger.

Chubb的基本面和我們的市場定位都非常出色。公司各方面都表現出色。我們擁有廣泛的全球多元化業務，以及一支紀律嚴明、充滿活力和才華橫溢的專業團隊，我為能稱他們為我的同事而感到無比自豪。我們正在收穫成果，也為未來播下種子。我們經過多年努力，在數位化和人工智慧領域取得了顯著成就，正在促進公司發展，並開始改變公司及其業務運作方式。從損失準備金來看，我們的資產負債表從未如此穩健。

We estimate that 70% to 80% of our businesses present attractive growth opportunities and looking forward and from all we can see, our performance is enduring. We will maintain superior earnings growth, including double-digit growth in EPS, book and tangible book value, and core operating ROE increasing to 14%+ over the medium term.

我們估計，我們70%到80%的業務都具有有吸引力的成長機會，展望未來，從我們所能看到的來看，我們的業績是持久的。我們將維持優異的獲利成長，包括每股盈餘、帳面價值和有形帳面價值的兩位數成長，以及核心營運淨資產收益率在中期內提高到 14% 以上。

In the quarter, we stepped up share buybacks because we are an excellent investment with our stock trading well below intrinsic value. Increased buyback activity will continue, while at the same time we will continue to build additional capital and our invested asset.

本季度，我們加大了股票回購力度，因為我們是一家優秀的投資公司，股票交易價格遠低於其內在價值。我們將持續加大股票回購力度，同時持續累積更多資本和投資資產。

I'm going to turn the call over to Peter now, and then we're going to come back and take questions.

我現在要把電話交給彼得，之後我們再回來回答問題。

Good morning. As you have just heard, we had another strong quarter that produced nine-month records in our three primary sources of earnings. Our results were supported by $4.5 billion of adjusted operating cash flows and exceptional balance sheet strength, including all-time highs in both book value of nearly $72 billion and cash and invested assets that exceeded $168 billion.

早安.正如你剛才聽到的，我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度，三大主要收入來源都創下九個月以來的新高。我們的業績得益於 45 億美元的調整後經營現金流和卓越的資產負債表實力，包括帳面價值近 720 億美元的歷史新高，以及現金和投資資產超過 1,680 億美元。

There are a few capital-related matters I'd like to touch on. First, we returned $1.6 billion of capital to shareholders during the quarter, including $385 million in dividends and $1.2 billion in share repurchases. Secondly, we issued approximately $2.2 billion of debt at a weighted average cost of 4% and an average term of about 12 years.

我想談談一些與資本相關的問題。首先，本季我們向股東返還了 16 億美元的資本，其中包括 3.85 億美元的股利和 12 億美元的股票回購。其次，我們發行了約 22 億美元的債務，加權平均成本為 4%，平均期限約 12 年。

Book and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI grew 2.8% and 3.8%, respectively, for the quarter, and 10.4% and 14.8% from the prior year.

本季每股帳面價值和有形帳面價值（不包括其他綜合收益）分別成長了 2.8% 和 3.8%，與去年同期相比分別成長了 10.4% 和 14.8%。

Our core operating return on tangible equity and core operating ROE were 24.5% and 16.3%, respectively, for the quarter.

本季度，我們的核心營運有形權益回報率和核心營運淨資產收益率分別為 24.5% 和 16.3%。

Pre-tax catastrophe losses were $285 million for the quarter, principally from weather-related events split 86% U.S. and 14% international, and $2.6 billion through nine months versus $1.8 billion over the same period last year.

本季稅前災害損失為 2.85 億美元，主要來自與天氣相關的事件，其中 86% 來自美國，14% 來自國際；前九個月的損失為 26 億美元，而去年同期為 18 億美元。

Pre-tax prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was favorable $422 million, comprising $460 million of favorable development in short-tail lines, and $38 million of unfavorable development in long-tail lines. Our corporate runoff portfolio had adverse development of $61 million, mostly environmental related.

本季我們活躍公司的稅前前期發展為有利的 4.22 億美元，其中包括短尾產品線的有利發展 4.6 億美元，以及長尾產品線的不利發展 3800 萬美元。我們的企業徑流投資組合出現了 6,100 萬美元的不利發展，其中大部分與環境有關。

Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter was 83%, and 87%, year-to-date.

本季已付成本與已發生成本之比為 83%，年初至今為 87%。

Turning to investments, our A-rated portfolio, which had an average book yield of 5.1% for the quarter, increased over $7.5 billion from prior quarter. The increase reflects strong operating cash flow as well as positive marks to market and favorable FX, partially offset by shareholder distributions.

再來看投資方面，我們A級投資組合本季平均帳面殖利率為5.1%，比上一季增加了75億美元以上。這一成長反映了強勁的經營現金流、積極的市值調整以及有利的匯率，但部分被股東分紅所抵消。

Adjusted net investment income was $1.78 billion which was above our previously guided range by approximately $40 million due to higher than projected private equity income as well as higher call premium and strong cash flows into the portfolio. To give you a bit more color this quarter, approximately 87% of investment income was generated by our fixed income portfolio, which is relatively predictable and growing steadily. The balance of our investment income is from private investments and other sources, which while growing more quickly, are more variable from quarter to quarter. We now expect adjusted net investment income in the fourth quarter to be between $1.775 billion and $1.81 billion next quarter.

調整後的淨投資收益為 17.8 億美元，比我們先前給出的預期範圍高出約 4,000 萬美元，原因是私募股權收入高於預期，以及贖回溢價較高和投資組合現金流強勁。為了讓您更清楚地了解本季的情況，我們約 87% 的投資收益來自固定收益投資組合，該投資組合相對可預測且穩定成長。我們投資收入的其餘部分來自私人投資和其他來源，雖然這些來源成長速度更快，但季度間的波動性更大。我們現在預計第四季調整後的淨投資收益將在 17.75 億美元至 18.1 億美元之間。

International Life premiums written growth in the quarter of 26.5% included a favorable one-time large transaction of $126 million, without which growth would have been 16.6%. The contribution from this transaction to Life Insurance segment income was de minimis.

國際人壽保險本季保費收入成長 26.5%，其中包括一筆 1.26 億美元的一次性大額交易，若不計入這筆交易，成長率為 16.6%。此次交易對人壽保險業務收入的貢獻微乎其微。

Our core operating effective tax rate was 20.5% for the quarter, which is above our previously guided range due to shifts in mix of income by tax jurisdiction, in particular related to prior period development catastrophe losses. As a result, we expect our core operating effective tax rate for this full year to be in the range of 19.5% to 20%.

本季我們的核心經營有效稅率為 20.5%，高於我們先前給出的預期範圍，這是由於按稅收管轄區劃分的收入組合發生了變化，特別是與前期開發災害損失有關。因此，我們預計本年度核心經營有效稅率將在 19.5% 至 20% 之間。

I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.

現在我將把電話轉回給凱倫。

Thank you. At this point we'll be happy to take your questions.

謝謝。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) David Motemaden, Evercore.

（操作說明）David Motemaden，Evercore。

Nice to talk to you.

很高興和你聊天。

It happens once a year, it seems like so not too bad. But just, Evan, just had a question on the ROE outlook increase to 14%+ from 13% in December. I guess, can you just talk through the moving pieces there and where you see upside that incremental point? Is it net investment income, underwriting, either releases or underlying underwriting, all of the above? Can you just help me think through the moving pieces there?

每年發生一次，似乎不算太糟。但是，Evan，我剛才有個關於 ROE 預期從 12 月的 13% 提高到 14% 以上的問題。我想，您能否詳細解釋其中的各個環節，以及您認為這個增量點有哪些優勢？是淨投資收益、承銷、釋放或基礎承銷，還是以上皆是？你能幫我理清一下這裡面的各個環節嗎？

Yeah. I'll help you think it through conceptually, not a worksheet. Look, we -- and I think this is the place where I start the mental model here. And it's 14%+ by the way. The plus is an important sign. We have strong and growing earning power. And as we look forward, we see that enduring. It's growing earnings. And there are three engines of it, and so you keep a mental model of that: underwriting, Life income, and our invested assets, so investment income.

是的。我會從概念上幫助你理解，而不是幫你做練習題。你看，我們——我認為這就是我開始建立這個思維模型的地方。順便說一句，這個比例超過14%。加號是一個重要的符號。我們擁有強勁且不斷成長的獲利能力。展望未來，我們看到這種情況將會持續下去。它的利潤正在增長。它由三個引擎組成，所以你要記住這個概念：核保、人壽收入和我們的投資資產，也就是投資收入。

The growth in underwriting, it's commercial and consumer, P&C, it's very broad-based, in non-life, including A&H. Our life earning power, growing. Our invested asset and alternative allocation to alternatives, so investment income, growing. Each of those, as we look forward, we see good sustainability to growth of earnings.

承保業務的成長，包括商業和消費保險、財產險和意外險，覆蓋範圍非常廣泛，非壽險業務也包括意外和健康險。我們的生活收入能力正在成長。我們的投資資產和另類資產配置，因此投資收益不斷成長。展望未來，我們認為這些因素都將帶來良好的獲利成長可持續性。

And then with growth of earnings, it means our capital base, obviously, with those earnings growth and that earning power, capital continues to grow. We're trading well, as we see it, below intrinsic value. And by the way, as you continue to grow earnings, and if it's sustainable, then frankly, your intrinsic value continues to move out.

隨著獲利的成長，我們的資本基礎自然也會成長，獲利成長和獲利能力的提升，意味著資本的持續成長。我們認為，目前的交易價格低於內在價值，這很好。順便說一句，隨著你的利潤持續成長，而且這種成長是可持續的，那麼坦白說，你的內在價值也會不斷提升。

We will buy back above previous trend. As you saw this quarter, we will continue to do that. And at the same time, we're going to continue to build our invested asset that also contributes to growth of earning power. That's as simple as I believe I can break it down for you.

我們將以高於先前趨勢的價格買入。正如您在本季所看到的，我們將繼續這樣做。同時，我們將繼續增加投資資產，這也有助於提高獲利能力。我想我只能這樣簡單地解釋給你聽了。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just following up, excess capital, I think in the past you guys have talked about it as a drag on the ROE. I guess, how can we think about that today? I think last time you spoke about it, it was, I think, a 2-point drag. Any way you could size that today for us?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後，也許可以補充一點，關於過剩資本，我想你們過去曾討論過它會拖累 ROE。我想，我們今天該如何思考這個問題呢？我記得你上次談到這件事的時候，好像是落後2分。今天可以幫我們量一下尺寸嗎？

Yeah. Everybody migrates. Me, too. And I don't really view it as excess capital because we're earning -- it's accretive to ROE as we deploy it on the invested asset side to the degree that it isn't supporting insurance underwriting activity. That's what you'll think of as surplus capital. But we're generating an excellent return on the alternative side, in particular, as we grow that in our invested asset. And so, I more think of it that way. But to answer your point directly, it's 2 points or north of 2 points.

是的。所有人都會遷徙。我也是。我並不認為這是過剩資本，因為我們在獲利——它增加了淨資產收益率，因為我們將其用於投資資產方面，而沒有用於支持保險承保活動。這就是你所說的剩餘資本。但是，我們在另類投資方面獲得了極佳的回報，尤其是在我們投資資產不斷增長的情況下。所以，我比較傾向於這樣想。但直接回答你的問題，那就是 2 分或大於 2 分。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

So as I look at your results in the third quarter and through the year, year to date, at least, the Overseas General growth stands out as somewhat of a surprise. And so, I was looking for some more color on that. And I guess why I'm a little bit surprised by it is because there's all this talk about pricing pressure among the large multinational types of exposures and in E&S market. And it seems like your business, whether it's London wholesale or the commercial inside Overseas General performing -- outperforming the peer groups. So maybe you can shed some color on that.

因此，當我查看你們第三季以及全年（至少是年初至今）的業績時，海外一般業務的成長顯得有些出人意料。所以，我想了解更多相關資訊。我之所以對此感到有些驚訝，是因為大家都在談論大型跨國公司風險敞口和環境與社會市場面臨的定價壓力。而且，無論是倫敦批發業務還是海外綜合保險公司內部的商業業務，似乎都表現出色，超越了同業。或許你能對此補充一些細節。

I want to correct your mental model, I think. The majority -- the vast majority of our Overseas General business, so P&C, is not E&S, and it is not large account multinational. The majority of it is middle market, small commercial, and consumer business, personal lines, automobile, homeowners, depending on the territory you're in. We do it selectively, and we talk about it. A&H business, digitally derived, direct marketing, agency, brokerage, vast in Asia, big in Latin America. And in the UK and on the continent, our business is well diversified, middle market in particular, and large account.

我想糾正一下你的思維模式。我們的海外一般保險業務（即財產和意外傷害保險）絕大多數（絕大多數）並非緊急和特殊險種，也不是大型跨國公司客戶。大部分業務是針對中端市場、小型商業和消費企業、個人保險、汽車保險和房屋保險，具體取決於您所在的地區。我們有選擇地去做，我們會談論它。A&H業務，數位化衍生，直接行銷，代理，經紀，在亞洲規模龐大，在拉丁美洲規模龐大。在英國和歐洲大陸，我們的業務非常多元化，尤其是在中端市場和大客戶方面。

Large account business is fundamentally, when you get down to it, UK, parts of the continent, Australia. But that's a better mental model than the one you start with, which is most of the neighborhood that you talk to, which is crowded in London and writing shared and layered trades in E&S and then large multinational. And in that business, it's property that is most competitive, which is where the globe is moving in a similar direction. Large account, shared and layered, but beginning to show up in parts of the middle market. It's property.

大客戶業務從根本上來說，就是英國、歐洲大陸部分地區和澳洲。但這比你一開始的思維模式要好得多，你一開始接觸的大多數人都是倫敦擁擠的社區居民，他們習慣在經濟和社會領域撰寫共享和分層的交易，然後是大型跨國公司。而在這個產業中，房地產產業的競爭最為激烈，這也是全球房地產產業的發展方向。大帳戶，共享和分層，但開始出現在部分中端市場。這是財產。

And when I have any concern about underpricing of business at the moment, it's particularly in parts of that area of property. The balance, particularly in most casualty lines, is adequately priced or where it's not, the market is responding with pricing. And to achieve adequacy, financial lines bumps around the bottom, so buyer beware.

而我目前對商業定價過低的任何擔憂，都特別集中在該區域的某些房產上。平衡，尤其是在大多數意外險種中，定價是合理的；如果定價不合理，市場也會透過價格調整來應對。為了達到充足水平，財務數據會在底部波動，所以買家要當心。

Great. Thanks for the clarification on that. I guess the second question, unrelated but important, is just around the expense ratio. If I look at the year-to-date results, the P&C consolidated policy acquisition ratio is up a little bit. Maybe the administrative expense ratio is holding in line, but I'm just curious what the moving parts are (multiple speakers) --

偉大的。謝謝你的解釋。我想第二個問題雖然與主題無關，但很重要，那就是費用率的問題。如果從年初至今的業績來看，財產險和意外險的綜合保單取得率略有上升。或許管理費用率保持穩定，但我只是好奇其中的運作機制是什麼。（多位發言者）——

Yeah, yeah. The acquisition is just a mix of business, more middle market, small, and consumer lines. They run a more favorable loss ratio.

是啊是啊。此次收購涵蓋了多種業務，包括面向中階市場、小型企業和消費品等多個領域。他們的賠付率更有利。

Fair enough. Thanks for the answers.

很公平。謝謝大家的解答。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor Fitzgerald.

Ryan Tunis，Cantor Fitzgerald。

So I guess one thing that kind of surprised me, maybe it shouldn't, but North America E&S, I'm guessing that's Westchester, still up 7% this quarter. You talked about a transitioning market. Maybe expected growth to be a little bit less there. So just maybe some color on -- yeah, I guess, what's driving the solid growth rate there?

所以我覺得有一件事讓我有點驚訝，也許不應該驚訝，但北美東部和南部地區（我猜是指威徹斯特）本季仍然成長了 7%。你談到了正在轉型的市場。或許預期成長會略低於預期。所以，或許可以稍微解釋一下——是的，我想，是什麼推動了那裡的穩健成長？

Yeah. Without giving away competitive secrets, property shrank, and it shrank significantly as it should. I mean, gave up rate, and we gave up exposure where we can't get paid adequately price to model for CAT. We're simply going to walk away, and we are.

是的。在不洩漏競爭秘密的前提下，房地產市場萎縮了，而且萎縮的幅度也正如預期的那樣大。我的意思是，我們放棄了利率，也放棄了在無法獲得足夠報酬的情況下進行 CAT 模型建模的風險敞口。我們決定就此離開，而且我們已經這麼做了。

On the other hand, there are areas of casualty that grew, and we are large in small -- quietly in small commercial E&S. We have a very large and growing completely digital capability, and that contributes very well to growth. And then we have a few program areas, like you'll notice we're in the pet insurance business, and those areas contribute to growth as well.

另一方面，有些領域的傷亡人數增加，我們在小型商業 E&S 領域規模龐大——悄無聲息地。我們擁有非常龐大且不斷成長的全數位化能力，這對公司的發展起到了很大的促進作用。此外，我們還有一些業務領域，例如您會注意到我們涉足寵物保險業務，這些領域也促進了成長。

It's diversification, again, and balance. And it's not achieved overnight. It's what you just patiently do, and then it bears fruit over time.

關鍵在於多元化和平衡。這並非一朝一夕就能實現的。你只要耐心去做，時間久了就會有回報。

And I guess, second one, just a broad one, Evan, just from where you're sitting, on the commercial side globally, in what ways are you seeing the macro impact your business, if at all?

第二個問題，Evan，比較廣泛一點，從你在全球商業領域的角度來看，你認為宏觀經濟對你的業務有哪些影響（如果有的話）？

Yeah. There's a wild card. Right now, interesting enough, I'm not seeing a big impact to the macro. U.S. is doing well. So overall, the economy, you can't get away from it. You look at the numbers, overall, U.S. economy has remained strong, though labor is slowing down, and the growth of payroll is slowing. And that's what you saw in the sort of that workers' comp adjustment, once-a-year adjustment payroll numbers. So you see that show up.

是的。這裡有個變數。有趣的是，目前我還沒有看到對宏觀經濟產生重大影響。美國發展良好。所以總的來說，經濟問題，你無法迴避。從數據來看，整體而言，美國經濟依然強勁，儘管勞動市場成長放緩，薪資成長也放緩。這就是你在工傷賠償調整、年度薪資調整數字中所看到的。所以你會看到它出現。

Europe is slow in economic growth, but it's been slow, and it continues to be slow. Asia has stood up pretty well. It varies by country within Asia, but it's stood up reasonably well. Korea is slow right now, but it isn't really impacting the growth of our business too much because of the nature of our kind of products and our distribution. But Thailand is impacted on one hand. On another hand, Singapore does well. Australia, doing quite well economically. So it varies across the board. It's a little volatile. But I don't notice a big impact.

歐洲經濟成長緩慢，而且一直都很緩慢，並將繼續保持緩慢的勢頭。亞洲表現得相當不錯。雖然亞洲各國情況不盡相同，但整體而言表現相當不錯。韓國目前經濟成長緩慢，但由於我們產品的特性和分銷管道，這並沒有對我們業務的成長造成太大影響。但泰國一方面也受到了影響。另一方面，新加坡表現不錯。澳洲經濟發展良好。所以情況因地而異。它有點不穩定。但我沒感覺到太大影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matthew Heimermann, Citi.

花旗銀行的馬修·海默曼。

Evan, I wonder if you could talk maybe about the inorganic growth opportunities in Asia. And in particular, I guess, the impression I'm getting from what's happening in the market there is there might actually be a lot more sellers than there have been historically as people think about where they are at strategically, whether they have scale distribution, et cetera. So I'd just be curious if you have any comments or color in that regard.

艾文，我想請你談談亞洲的非有機成長機會。尤其是，我覺得，從目前市場上的情況來看，賣家的數量可能比以往任何時候都要多，因為人們都在思考自己的策略地位、是否擁有規模分銷等等。所以我很想知道你在這方面有沒有什麼評論或看法。

We must be talking to different people because, frankly, I haven't noticed that kind of chatter or many sellers in Asia. Most seem to be happy to make a go of it. So I'm not noticing that.

我們肯定是在和不同的人交談，因為坦白說，我沒注意到亞洲有這種討論，也沒見過多少賣家。大多數人似乎都樂於嘗試。所以我沒注意到這一點。

I know one thing. I got a dance card that's pretty full. Our plate is very full with organic growth opportunities across consumer, across small, mid, in particular, commercial variety of distribution, and a whole lot of countries. So we're just flat-out busy growing organically right now and building capability and reaping what we got. So I haven't really noticed much of that, Matt.

我知道一件事。我的行程安排得滿滿噹噹。我們在消費者領域，尤其是在商業分銷領域，以及許多國家，都擁有大量的有機成長機會。所以我們現在正全力以赴地進行有機成長，提升能力，並收穫我們所取得的成果。所以，我並沒有太注意到這一點，馬特。

All right. I appreciate that. Thank you. The other question I have, if you're willing to entertain it, is there's been a lot of chatter about a particular historically wholesale broker moving into the U.S. organically on the retail side and some big shifts of business away from them, in particular in the London wholesale market. I'm just curious, from a health of the market, drawing regulatory scrutiny and maybe it's just my institutional memory is too long, should we be worried about that type of behavior?

好的。我很感激。謝謝。我還有個問題，如果您願意回答的話。最近有很多傳言說，一家歷史悠久的批發經紀公司正在逐步進入美國零售市場，導致一些業務從該公司轉移出去，尤其是在倫敦批發市場。我只是好奇，從市場健康的角度來看，這種行為可能會引起監管部門的審查，或許只是我的記憶力太差，我們是否該擔心這種行為？

No. I wouldn't. It speaks to market economy. People make choices. They have their own choice to make. I'm not going to second-guess their own analysis and the strategic outcome of that. That broker is doing what they're doing with their eyes wide open, I assume. And they look at the positive, and they look at the negative, and they must see that the positives outweigh the negative. That's their choice to make.

不。我不會。它體現了市場經濟的本質。人都會做出選擇。他們有權利做出自己的選擇。我不會去質疑他們自己的分析及其策略結果。我猜想，那位經紀人做這一切的時候都是心知肚明的。他們會審視正面的一面，也會審視負面的一面，他們必須看到正面的一面大於負面的一面。那是他們自己的選擇。

And it's every other brokers’ choice to react. I'm glad there isn't regulation that somehow impacts the ability of market to make rational choices, each on their own.

其他經紀人是否有反應，則由他們自己決定。我很高興目前沒有任何監管措施會影響市場獨立做出理性選擇的能力。

I appreciate it. Thank you.

謝謝。謝謝。

Let's have a dynamic market. And by the way, a dynamic market is, by definition, messier.

讓我們打造一個充滿活力的市場。順便說一句，動態市場顧名思義，就更加混亂。

Great. I like messy. Thank you.

偉大的。我喜歡凌亂的感覺。謝謝。

You're a guy.

你是男的。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

Evan, you said that your balance sheet starting with your reserves have never been stronger. I'm wondering if you could share with us where your reserves sit relative to your central estimate and any comments about this quarter's North America commercial lines favorable reserve development, which was slightly down this quarter versus prior quarters.

埃文，你說過你的資產負債表，包括你的儲備金在內，從未如此強勁。我想請您分享您的準備金與中心估計值之間的差距，以及您對本季度北美商業險有利準備金發展情況的任何評論，該季度準備金較前幾個季度略有下降。

Tracy, nice try. No, I will share no detail about our reserve position and our reserve strength beyond what I just said. That's proprietary. So I'm not going to do that. There'll be additional color on our reserves in the 10-Q that'll come out, and you can look at those.

特蕾西，不錯。不，除了我剛才說的話之外，我不會透露任何關於我們後備力量和後備位置的細節。這是專有資訊。所以我不會那樣做。即將發布的 10-Q 表格中會有更多關於我們儲備金的信息，您可以查看一下。

Yes, okay.

好的。

Our reserves -- but I think my comment that our reserves have never been -- I've never seen them stronger stands on its own weight.

我們的儲備——但我認為我說的「我們的儲備從未如此強大」這句話本身就很有說服力。

Got it. Okay. Can you talk a few minutes about your small to middle market commercial business? I mean, I recognize you have strong field operations. Legacy Chubb has built that over 100 years. But I'm wondering if you could discuss where you win in business. Is it more by offering cyber package policies, given you're a leader there?

知道了。好的。您能否花幾分鐘時間談談您的中小企業商業業務？我的意思是，我承認你們擁有強大的現場營運能力。Chubb 品牌歷經 100 餘年才建立起如今的輝煌。但我很想知道您能否談談您在商業中取得成功的秘訣。鑑於貴公司在網路安全保險領域的領先地位，提供網路安全保險方案是否更有利？

No. I would say that's a specialty add-on. We are the second largest writer in the United States of middle market customers. So you start with that. The amount of data that we have, the product, the spread of product that we offer and the capability, and we deliver it both through our branch operation and more and more supported by technology to enable the process.

不。我認為這屬於特殊附加功能。我們是美國第二大面向中階市場客戶的圖書出版商。所以，就從這裡開始吧。我們擁有的數據量、產品、我們提供的產品範圍和能力，我們透過分支機構運作以及越來越多的技術支援來交付這些產品，從而使這一過程得以實現。

Our industry practices business, we are the pioneers, the inventors of the notion of industry practice that some others are trying to copy where we offer product and suites of product with wordings designed by industry. It's not just marketing. It's true underwriting and product differentiation in the various customer cohorts because we break down the middle market by industry and specialize across a wide swath of industries targeting customers in those industries.

我們是行業實踐業務的先驅，是行業實踐概念的發明者，其他一些公司正試圖模仿我們，我們提供的產品和產品套件都採用行業設計的措辭。這不僅僅是行銷。這是針對不同客戶群進行真正的承保和產品差異化，因為我們按行業細分中端市場，並專注於各個行業，以這些行業的客戶為目標。

We segment the middle market between large and sort of middle and then lower middle market, which is a different buyer than the balance of middle market. It's more akin to small commercial. And the ability to take the seams out and deliver to customer whether they're small or lower middle and in a totally digital way and to have the broadest suite of products so that you meet all of the customer's needs that way, growing marketing capability to be able to segment by geography where are the customers that we are most compelling for, we have the best offering, the growing ability of our software with our people to deliver in that and to do it in a way that drives not just more submission activity but at a close ratio that is superior, that is what Chubb's middle market and small commercial, in a nutshell, is about. And that is spreading around the globe.

我們將中端市場細分為大型和中等規模的市場，以及規模較小的中端市場，後者的買家與其餘中端市場的買家有所不同。它更像是小型商業廣告。能夠消除銜接障礙，以完全數位化的方式向客戶（無論規模大小）提供服務，並擁有最廣泛的產品組合，從而滿足客戶的所有需求；不斷提升營銷能力，能夠按地域細分市場，找到我們最有吸引力的客戶群體，提供最佳產品；我們的軟體和員工不斷增強的能力，能夠以一種不僅能提高業務保險量，這就是商業保險的方式。而且這種情況正在全球蔓延。

Very helpful comments. Thank you.

非常有幫助的評論。謝謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，瑞銀集團。

Evan, I was hoping you could just give us a little update on the global A&H business. Kind of what's the outlook there? I know it's been seeing some declining revenues here year to date and in the quarter. What's going on with the business?

埃文，我希望你能給我們簡單介紹一下全球A&H業務的最新情況。那裡的前景如何？我知道該公司今年迄今以及本季的營收都出現了下滑。公司現在的狀況如何？

Yeah, perfect. It was North America that declined. We had a -- and it's not a dog ate my homework. We had a very large customer that we couldn't come to terms with, the underwriting, just simply the pricing wasn't going to meet our standard. And so we mutually agreed to part ways on that, and that was the end of last year. And that's impacted A&H in North America all year, in fact. It's a one-off.

對，完美。衰落的是北美。我們遇到了一件——而且不是狗吃了我的作業。我們有一個非常大的客戶，但我們無法達成協議，承保方面，簡而言之，定價不符合我們的標準。因此，我們雙方同意就此事分道揚鑣，那是去年年底的事了。事實上，這種情況對北美地區的動物與健康產業產生了全年的影響。這是一次性的。

Internationally, the business is growing at around 7.5%. Asia, in particular, and Latin America, and it's growing, and the opportunity is in a number of areas. Our travel-related business is growing quickly because it's 100% digital. And our ability to deliver through airlines on an embedded basis or through large travel agencies and an improvement of product and even being able to settle claims on a digital basis has given us a lot of runway on that.

國際業務成長率約為 7.5%。尤其是在亞洲和拉丁美洲，而且這種趨勢還在不斷發展，機會存在於許多領域。我們的旅遊相關業務發展迅速，因為它完全是數位化的。我們能夠透過航空公司以嵌入式方式或透過大型旅行社提供服務，並不斷改進產品，甚至能夠以數位化方式解決索賠，這為我們在這方面提供了很大的發展空間。

Our direct marketing business, not just by phone, but by a digital direct-to-consumer through, as I've talked about repeatedly. We have over 200 platform partners, but some very large ones like a Nubank or in Latin America or Grab in Asia or a ByteDance, et cetera, to their customers through both an embedded and now what we call click to engage or click to call where we marry up voice and direct digital together to be able to sell a higher average ticket product.

正如我多次提到的，我們的直接行銷業務不僅透過電話，而且透過數位化直接面向消費者的管道進行。我們擁有超過 200 個平台合作夥伴，其中一些規模非常大，例如拉丁美洲的 Nubank、亞洲的 Grab 或位元組跳動等等。我們透過嵌入式應用程式以及現在我們稱為「點擊互動」或「點擊通話」的方式，將語音和直接數位服務結合起來，從而能夠銷售平均客單價更高的產品。

It's a very vibrant strategy with a lot of growth runway to it, both non-life, which is what you see disclosed there, and on the life side, well remember, 60% to 70% of our business is A&H. So when I look at it going forward, I think about growth in Asia, Latin America, both growth regions. Europe, more flattish. North America, we see growth picking up.

這是一個充滿活力的策略，具有很大的成長空間，包括非人壽保險（正如你在那裡看到的披露內容）和人壽保險（請記住，我們 60% 到 70% 的業務是意外和健康保險）。所以展望未來，我認為亞洲和拉丁美洲這兩個成長區域都將迎來成長。歐洲地勢較平坦。北美地區的成長勢頭正在加快。

And then to remind you, when I say that Combined was up 18%, that's work site marketing. And most of that is A&H and then some risk-based life insurance. But it's dread disease. It's hospital cash. So again, that's another proxy of A&H business. We love A&H business around here for decades.

最後提醒一下，我說的綜合成長 18% 指的是工作場所行銷。其中大部分是意外傷害和健康保險，還有一些是基於風險的人壽保險。但這卻是一種可怕的疾病。這是醫院的現金。所以，這又是A&H業務的另一個指標。幾十年來，我們一直很喜歡本地的動物與健康產業。

And the second question, maybe you could talk a little bit about the reinsurance business. Obviously, big decline in premium this quarter. What are you seeing in that marketplace? Are you seeing terms and conditions loosening up? And any crystal ball as to what you think 1/1 may look like?

第二個問題，能否談談再保險業務？顯然，本季保費大幅下降。你在這個市場看到了什麼？您是否注意到條款和條件有所放寬？你有沒有水晶球可以預測一下1/1會是什麼樣子？

I like it as a buyer. Look, our reinsurance business, and you know this, we've always run it a bit as a -- we get the joke. We recognize it more as a trade. And frankly, it's the other side of that same coin of property softening. And we're not going to chase property CAT unless we really like, unless we think it's priced adequately, and we're disciplined about price to model. There is no sort of gut feel or I observe one or two quarters where CAT activity was light, so something has changed. Oh my God, please.

作為買家，我很喜歡。你看，我們的再保險業務，你也知道，我們一直以來都把它經營得有點像——我們明白這個玩笑。我們更傾向於將其視為一種交易。坦白說，這是房地產市場疲軟這個問題的另一面。除非我們真的喜歡，除非我們認為它的價格足夠合理，否則我們不會追逐高風險房產，而且我們在價格與模型匹配方面非常自律。沒有那種直覺，或者我觀察到一兩個季度 CAT 活動較少，所以肯定有什麼地方發生了變化。我的天哪，求求你了。

And so, we're disciplined about it. And we will write the business when we're going to get paid adequately, and we will shrink when we're not. And there's a pretty good example.

所以，我們在這方面非常自律。我們會根據收入狀況擴大業務規模，如果收入不足，我們會縮減業務規模。這裡就有一個很好的例子。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

Peter, you mentioned that the more volatile components of investment income are growing faster. I was hoping to get a little bit more color in terms of the underlying thought process and maybe targeted allocations.

彼得，你提到投資收益中波動性較大的部分成長速度較快。我原本希望能夠更詳細地了解背後的思考過程以及可能採取的定向分配方式。

I'm sorry, say that again?

不好意思，再說一次？

So Peter mentioned that non-fixed investment income is more volatile but growing faster than the fixed income component, and I was hoping to dig a little deeper in terms of what you're thinking and maybe where that goes over time.

彼得提到，非固定投資收益波動性較大，但成長速度比固定收益部分更快。我希望更深入地了解你的想法，以及隨著時間的推移，這種趨勢會如何發展。

Yeah. I'm going to give it to Peter in a second, but let's be very careful of more volatile. It's not more volatile in its signature. It's just a question of realized gains versus interest rate income off of a fixed -- so fixed versus equity-based. That's all. But go ahead, Peter.

是的。我馬上就把它交給彼得，但我們一定要非常小心那些比較不穩定的東西。它的特徵訊號並沒有更不穩定。這只是固定收益與利息收入之間的權衡問題——也就是固定收益與權益收益之間的權衡。就這樣。彼得，你繼續。

So we'd indicated before that we're increasing our allocation to private investments, including private equity, and those have -- so we're increasing the allocation, and those also have a higher current yield. So just on that basis alone, that income will grow more quickly over time.

因此，我們之前已經表示，我們將增加對私人投資（包括私募股權）的配置，而且這些投資的當前收益率也更高。僅憑這一點，隨著時間的推移，收入成長速度就會更快。

To Evan's point, there will be quarterly fluctuations from things like distributions and realizations. But the current return of that that will flow through our adjusted NII is higher, plus the total IRR is much higher, and that will help book value compound more quickly.

正如埃文所說，由於分配和實現等因素，季度內會出現波動。但目前透過我們調整後的淨利息收入實現的收益更高，加上總內部收益率也更高，這將有助於帳面價值更快地複利增長。

So think of alternatives as producing. And we've said this before, we used our partnership with -- our long-term partnership with KKR as an example. It'll feed a coupon yield of, let's call it, somewhere around 7%, 7.5%. But on the other hand, it has an IRR to it of 15%+ or in that range. So therefore, it does have a terminal value component to it also. And you see that fluctuation as you do normally in PE.

所以，把替代方案看成是生產過程。我們之前也說過，我們以與 KKR 的長期合作關係為例。它的票息收益率大概在 7% 到 7.5% 左右。但另一方面，它的內部收益率 (IRR) 為 15% 以上或接近這個範圍。因此，它也確實具有最終價值的成分。你會發現這種波動，就像你在體育博彩中通常看到的那樣。

Okay, fantastic. That's very helpful. One quick other question. We've had two consecutive quarters in North America personal with really solid top-line growth and declining administrative expenses on a year-over-year basis. Is that something that can persist? Is that technology driven?

好的，太棒了。那很有幫助。還有一個問題。我們在北美地區的個人業務已經連續兩個季度實現了非常穩健的營收成長，同時行政費用較去年同期下降。這種情況會持續下去嗎？這是技術驅動的嗎？

I like the pattern.

我喜歡這個圖案。

Okay, then. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

I mean, we like to continue patterns that we find that we like. It is part of our strategy. As we digitize, as AI over time matures more within the company, we expect our growth of expense, the growth rate to decline as revenue grows. And over time, we expect the total employee population declines as revenue grows. And both technology and AI in various forms at different parts of the process of conducting our business. They continue to mature and continue to take hold sort of business by business. So it takes time, but we're seeing results. It's not a futuristic as we're harvesting now.

我的意思是，我們喜歡延續我們喜歡的模式。這是我們戰略的一部分。隨著數位化進程的推進，隨著人工智慧在公司內部日益成熟，我們預計支出成長速度將隨著收入成長而放緩。隨著收入的成長，我們預期員工總數會逐漸減少。科技和人工智慧以各種形式應用於我們業務開展過程的不同環節。它們不斷發展壯大，並逐步站穩腳步。所以這需要時間，但我們正在看到成效。我們現在收穫的並非未來科技。

Understood. Thank you so much.

明白了。太感謝了。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

So Evan, I thought the print that you put out in property casualty was literally the best in the world. You had under an 82% combined. Net written premium growth was around 5% but would have been higher were it not for some one-offs. And I appreciate your commentary about the broadness of the business, the geography, the product, the account size, and other items. But diverse companies often mess up. And you gave a good description on your middle market commentary and why that's so good. But how does Chubb stay ahead on tech, on data, on underwriters? What is it that keeps you ahead and doesn't mess up this incredible performance that you've been doing quarter after quarter?

艾文，我覺得你出版的財產意外險方面的印刷品簡直是世界上最好的。你們的總成績低於 82%。淨保費收入成長約 5%，但如果不是因為一些一次性因素，成長幅度會更高。我非常感謝您對業務範圍、地理、產品、客戶規模和其他方面的評論。但多元化的公司往往會犯錯。你對你針對中階市場的評論以及為何它如此出色的原因做了很好的描述。但 Chubb 如何在技術、數據和核保方面保持領先地位？是什麼讓你保持領先，並且沒有搞砸你每季都保持的出色表現？

I've been the CEO of this company for 21 years. We have built a culture, a discipline, and an ability to monitor and survey our discipline and the way we work at an extremely granular level on a real-time basis. And culture here means the higher you go, the harder you work. It's an inverted pyramid, and it is a privilege. And if you don't feel that way and you need a, quote-unquote, different work-life balance, then this may not be the place for you.

我擔任這家公司的執行長已有21年了。我們已經建立了一種文化、一種紀律，以及一種能力，可以即時、極其細緻地監控和審查我們的紀律和工作方式。這裡的文化是，職位越高，工作就越努力。這是一個倒金字塔結構，而且是一種特權。如果你不這麼認為，你需要一種所謂的“不同的工作與生活平衡”，那麼這裡可能不適合你。

The people who embrace this, the management team, we've been together, some 15 years, some 20 years, some 25 years. We've been together decades. We've all grown up with the same ethos of how do you run and discipline and manage a business. And we're fundamental builders. We love what we do.

認同這一點的人，也就是管理團隊，我們已經一起工作了，有的15年，有的20年，有的25年。我們在一起幾十年了。我們從小就秉持著相同的理念，那就是如何經營、管理和約束企業。我們是基礎建設者。我們熱愛我們的工作。

And so it's granular. You look at the results, but it's the result of those macro results of granular effort across hundreds of businesses in dozens of countries with a management structure that can discipline and drive it on a daily basis. And we are all traveling and on the ground tirelessly to examine and know our businesses. We love it. We love what we do.

所以它是細粒度的。你看到的是結果，但這其實是數十個國家數百家企業在細緻努力下取得的宏觀成果，而這種努力需要有管理結構來每天進行約束和推動。我們所有人都在奔波各地，不辭辛勞地實地考察和了解我們的業務。我們很喜歡。我們熱愛我們的工作。

And frankly, I've been asked this question of enduring, and that's why I started with it, for over 20 years. How are you guys gonna keep repeating it? And by the way, you can lose it. You can lose it quickly if you start laying back or getting a little complacent or starting to believe your own stuff that is written about you that you're so great. We're not. We act like we're chased every day. And this company has only $60 billion-some-odd of revenue in a $4 trillion industry. We've got the world in front of us, and that's what drives us. Period.

坦白說，20多年來，我一直被問到關於堅持的問題，這也是我從這個問題開始探討的原因。你們打算怎麼一遍又一遍重複？順便說一句，你可能會弄丟它。如果你開始懈怠、變得有點自滿，或是開始相信那些關於你的、讓你覺得自己很了不起的評價，你很快就會失去它。我們不是這樣。我們每天都表現得好像被人追趕一樣。這家公司在價值 4 兆美元的行業中，營收卻只有 600 多億美元。世界就在我們面前，這就是我們前進的動力。時期。

Very helpful. And then if I could follow up on the -- and I know you don't want to talk about the details of your position and strength and reserves. But could you talk about the casualty development in the quarter? Was it adverse? Was it favorable? Anything by vintage? Just how did it develop in commercial P&C in the third quarter?

很有幫助。然後，如果我可以跟進——我知道您不想談論您的職位、實力和儲備的細節。您能否談談本季的傷亡情況？是不利的嗎？結果是有利的嗎？有復古風格的嗎？第三季商業財產保險業務發展如何？

Yeah. It was overall casualty development was $38 million negative. And that was $104 million in the US and negative and $66 million positive internationally.

是的。整體而言，傷亡事故造成的損失為負3,800萬美元。美國境內虧損 1.04 億美元，國際市場獲利 6,600 萬美元。

Got it. And nothing by vintage that kind of stuck out?

知道了。有沒有特別出彩的復古單品？

No, sir.

不，先生。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

I really enjoyed that answer on the culture, by the way. But my question is on the path to the 14%+ ROE. If I look at just the simple DuPont kind of analysis, it would suggest that that ROE drag, whether you want to call it excess capital or just lower premium to equity that maybe you could run with, that seems like the biggest opportunity to increase the ROE quicker, but that wasn't where you went at first with that response. So I was interested in that.

順便說一句，我非常喜歡你對文化的那番回答。但我的問題是如何實現 14% 以上的 ROE。如果我只從簡單的杜邦分析來看，它會表明 ROE 的拖累（無論你稱之為過剩資本還是較低的股權溢價，而這可能正是你能夠利用的）似乎是更快提高 ROE 的最大機會，但這並不是你最初的回應方向。所以我對那個很有興趣。

You feel like there are things you can do on underwriting life income, growing the business. You feel like you can hit that 14% ROE plus without any contemplation of really hammering the buyback or doing inorganic or something like that.

你覺得在核保人壽保險、發展業務方面，你還可以做些事。你覺得無需考慮大力回購股票或進行非內生性收購或其他類似操作，就能達到 14% 以上的 ROE。

Correct. Yes, correct. We're going to -- from all we see, we're going to continue to grow income. I gave you the parts and pieces of growing income, which is growing earning power. We will continue to build our invested asset, and we will continue to -- with that income, not just loss reserves, and so capital will build. And at the same time, we will increase our buybacks. We'll do both as long as we're trading below intrinsic value and we are trading well below.

正確的。是的，沒錯。從我們目前所看到的來看，我們的收入將會持續成長。我已經向你介紹了增加收入的各個組成部分，也就是提高賺錢能力。我們將繼續增加投資資產，我們將繼續——利用收入，而不僅僅是損失準備金，這樣資本就會不斷累積。同時，我們將增加股票回購。只要我們的交易價格低於內在價值，我們就會同時採取這兩種策略，而我們的交易價格確實遠低於其內在價值。

Got it. Very helpful. And then I wanted to go to the Chubb personal lines business. I mean, it's been doing really well with the amount of growth. Just interested in your views on how you think that would be impacted, if at all, if we see competition heating up and maybe areas of the market where that has more of an impact like direct-to-consumer, et cetera.

知道了。很有幫助。然後我想去丘博保險的個人保險業務部門。我的意思是，它的成長速度真的很快。我只是想了解您對市場競爭加劇會如何影響市場的看法，以及這種影響在哪些市場領域（例如直接面向消費者的領域）會更加顯著。

Yeah. And I think you're referring to high-net-worth North America. Or are you thinking globally? Or what do you think?

是的。我想你指的是北美的高淨值群。或者，你考慮的是全球視野？你覺得呢？

Yeah, more in North America.

是的，北美地區更是如此。

Okay. In North America, I mean, look, competition. It takes -- what is competition really about? We have competitors out there who sell at a price significantly below Chubb. And if you are a Chubb customer, and we respect our customers, but if price becomes a real problem for you, then we have two or three other phone numbers we'll give you of others who will sell it at a price below us.

好的。在北美，我的意思是，你看，競爭非常激烈。競爭的本質是什麼？我們的競爭對手的產品價格遠低於 Chubb。如果您是 Chubb 的客戶，我們尊重我們的客戶，但如果價格對您來說確實是一個問題，那麼我們會給您兩三個其他公司的電話號碼，他們的售價會比我們低。

But it's about service. It's about the richness of product. Anybody who has a claim with Chubb that I know of, I mean, there's our reputation, it never leaves. Our ability in risk engineering and again, the richness of the coverage we offer, so it's not just claims service in terms of speed and how we deal with a customer, but it's how the richness of that coverage comes alive at that time. It's our broad reach and appetite.

但關鍵在於服務。關鍵在於產品的豐富性。據我所知，任何向 Chubb 提出索賠的人，我的意思是，我們的聲譽是無法撼動的。我們在風險工程方面的能力，以及我們提供的保險範圍的豐富性，不僅僅是理賠服務的速度和我們對待客戶的方式，而是當時保險範圍的豐富性如何發揮作用。這是因為我們擁有廣泛的影響力和市場需求。

We can underwrite a customer anywhere they are for any kind of home they're in. We offer the broadest range of coverages, from their fine arts and jewelry to large limits of casualty to yachts and boats anywhere in the world. No one steps up to this. We do define the class, yet we're hungry and we're humble about it. We keep stepping up to reinforce and rebuild ourselves.

無論客戶身處何地，無論他們居住在何種類型的房屋中，我們都可以為其提供保險承保。我們提供最廣泛的保險範圍，從藝術品和珠寶到高額意外險，再到世界各地的遊艇和船舶。沒有人挺身而出。我們定義了階級，但我們渴望成功，並且對此保持謙遜。我們不斷努力，鞏固和重建自己。

Competition is heating up as it heats up, more in CAT – extreme, CAT-concentrated areas. We can't write it all. I'm not going to try to dominate in any area where, oh, I wrote 100% to the CAT market here. Are you kidding me? So there's room for others to come on in and write your share. And by the way, you can write it at an adequate risk-adjusted price. Don't worry.

隨著氣溫升高，競爭也愈發激烈，尤其是在 CAT 高度集中的地區。我們不可能全部寫出來。我不會試圖在任何領域佔據主導地位，例如，我在這裡把 100% 的份額都投向了 CAT 市場。你在開玩笑吧？所以，其他人也可以加入進來，寫下自己的故事。順便說一句，你可以按適當的風險調整價格來撰寫。不用擔心。

And so, competition wanes and waxes in it. It's more about the price in that case, but not the richness of coverage and service that we provide.

因此，競爭在其中時而減弱，時而增強。在這種情況下，價格才是關鍵，而不是我們提供的全面保障和服務。

Thanks.

謝謝。

It's such an enduring franchise, and I couldn't be more proud of it. And I couldn't be a bigger fan.

這是一個經久不衰的系列作品，我為此感到無比自豪。我簡直是他的鐵粉。

Appreciate all the color. Thank you.

欣賞這繽紛的色彩。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, I will now turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，現在我將把電話交還給凱倫·拜爾，請她作總結發言。請繼續。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your calls. Enjoy the day. Thank you.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。如果您有任何後續問題，歡迎隨時致電諮詢。祝你今天過得愉快。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。