丘博保險集團 (CB) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited first-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。我叫 Eric，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Chubb Limited 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給投資人關係資深副總裁 Karen Beyer。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to our March 31, 2025 first-quarter earnings conference call.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2025 年 3 月 31 日第一季財報電話會議。

Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC files, earnings release, and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.

我們今天的報告將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與公司業績、定價和業務組合、成長機會以及經濟和市場狀況有關的陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們最近的 SEC 文件、收益報告和財務補充資料（可在我們的網站 investors.chubb.com 上找到），以獲取有關可能影響這些事項的因素的更多資​​訊。

We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

我們今天也將參考非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標，其與最直接可比較的公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳及相關詳細資訊均在我們的收益新聞稿和財務補充中提供。

Now, I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer, and then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions this morning are several members of our management team.

現在，我想介紹我們的演講者。首先，我們有董事長兼執行長 Evan Greenberg；接下來是我們的財務長彼得恩斯 (Peter Enns)，然後我們將回答您的問題。今天上午，我們的管理團隊的幾位成員也將與我們一起解答您的問題。

And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

現在我很高興將電話轉給埃文。

Good morning. Let me begin with a few words around the external environment. There is currently a great deal of uncertainty and confusion surrounding our government's approach to trade, and it's impacting business and consumer confidence as well as our image broadening. The odds of recession have risen substantially, and higher inflation is all but certain. To what degree is an open question. We have competing priorities between our stated trade, economic and fiscal objectives, and coherence of policy has yet to emerge. I hope we can reach agreements on trade, reduce or eliminate tariffs, and reconcile our priorities quickly. Certainty and predictability are jacks to open for confidence, growth and the image of our country as a leader, a reliable partner and a place to do business.

早安.首先，我先談外部環境。目前，我國政府的貿易方式存在著很大的不確定性和混亂，影響了企業和消費者信心以及我們的形象拓展。經濟衰退的可能性已大幅上升，通貨膨脹率上升幾乎是肯定的。程度如何仍是一個懸而未決的問題。我們既定的貿易、經濟和財政目標之間存在著相互競爭的優先事項，政策的連貫性尚未形成。我希望我們能夠就貿易達成協議，降低或取消關稅，並迅速協調我們的優先事項。確定性和可預測性是打開信心、成長和我國作為領導者、可靠合作夥伴和經商之地的形象的鑰匙。

As you saw from the numbers, we had a good first quarter considering the significant catastrophe losses we incurred from the California wildfires. In terms of revenue growth, the headline number was impacted by foreign exchange due to a strong dollar, which has since weakened substantially, and one-time premium-related items in our North American business.

從數據中可以看出，儘管加州野火給我們帶來了重大災難損失，但第一季我們表現良好。就營收成長而言，整體數字受到外匯的影響，因為美元走強（美元大幅貶值），以及北美業務中一次性保費相關項目的影響。

We produced $1.5 billion in core operating income, and it was down 31%, but it was supported by excellent underlying underwriting results, double-digit growth in investment income, and strong life insurance income. Total company premiums grew 5.7% in constant dollars.

我們的核心營業收入為 15 億美元，下降了 31%，但這得益於出色的承保業績、投資收入的兩位數增長以及強勁的人壽保險收入。以不變美元計算，公司總保費增加了 5.7%。

Our published combined ratio was 95.7% with underwriting income of $441 million, a notable result given $1.6 billion of cat losses. Calendar year underwriting income was supported by a current accident year combined ratio of 82.3%, a nearly 1.5-point improvement from prior year. Excluding CATs, current accident year underwriting income was up 12%. Additionally, we had favorable prior year reserve development of $255 million.

我們公佈的綜合成本率為 95.7%，承保收入為 4.41 億美元，考慮到 16 億美元的巨災損失，這是一個顯著的成績。日曆年承保收入受到本事故年度綜合成本率 82.3% 的支持，比前一年提高了近 1.5 個百分點。不包括 CAT，本事故年度承保收入增加了 12%。此外，我們去年的儲備金成長情況良好，達到 2.55 億美元。

On the asset side, for the quarter, adjusted net investment income was $1.7 billion, and it was up 12.7%. Our fixed income portfolio yield is 5%, and our current new money rate is averaging 5.5%. Tariffs and the federal budget deficit impact interest rates, the yield curve, spreads, asset values and the dollar in ways that are not good for our country. As a company, we are predominantly buy-and-hold fixed income investors and benefit from higher yields and, as a multinational, our revenue and income benefit from a weaker dollar. In the quarter, our alternative investments produced modestly lower-than-usual private equity distribution related income. It's a combination of simply normal volatility and financial market positions. Our annualized core operating return on tangible equity in the quarter is 13%. Peter's going to have more to say about the financial items.

資產方面，本季調整後的淨投資收入為 17 億美元，成長 12.7%。我們的固定收益投資組合報酬率為 5%，目前新資金利率平均為 5.5%。關稅和聯邦預算赤字對利率、殖利率曲線、利差、資產價值和美元產生不利於我國的影響。作為一家公司，我們主要是買入並持有固定收益的投資者，並從更高的收益率中受益；作為一家跨國公司，我們的收入和收益受益於美元走弱。本季度，我們的另類投資產生的私募股權分配相關收入略低於往常。它是簡單的正常波動和金融市場地位的結合。本季我們的年化核心營運有形權益報酬率為 13%。彼得將會對財務問題發表更多看法。

As you saw, in the first quarter we announced an agreement to acquire Liberty Mutual's business in Thailand and Vietnam. The two companies offer a range of consumer and commercial P&C products with distribution through 56 branches and 2,600 brokers and agents. Both fit well with our own business. The combined operations produced about $275 million in premiums in 2024, over 90% of which is in Thailand. For perspective, Thailand is now over $1 billion in premium revenue for Chubb, non-life and life, and we're among the leading P&C companies in the country once the entities are merged – in fact, we'll be number four. We closed Thailand April 1 and expect to close Vietnam by early '26.

正如您所看到的，我們在第一季宣布了一項協議，收購 Liberty Mutual 在泰國和越南的業務。兩家公司透過 56 個分店和 2,600 名經紀人和代理商提供一系列消費者和商業財產及意外傷害保險產品。兩者都非常適合我們自己的業務。2024 年，合併後的業務產生了約 2.75 億美元的保費收入，其中 90% 以上來自泰國。從長遠來看，目前 Chubb 在泰國的保費收入已超過 10 億美元，包括非壽險和壽險，一旦合併，我們就會成為全國領先的財產和意外傷害保險公司之一，事實上，我們將位居第四。我們於 4 月 1 日關閉了泰國市場，並預計將於 26 年初關閉越南市場。

Now turning to the growth, pricing and the rate environment, P&C revenue grew 3.2% a quarter, 5% in constant dollars, with commercial up 4.6% and consumer up 6%. Adjusting for the one-time items in North America, P&C premium revenue grew over 6.5% in constant dollars. All regions of the world contributed favorably. Premiums in our Life Insurance division grew over 10%.

現在轉向成長、定價和利率環境，財產和意外保險收入每季成長 3.2%，以固定美元計算成長 5%，其中商業收入成長 4.6%，消費者收入成長 6%。在調整北美地區的一次性項目後，財產和意外傷害保險的保費收入以不變美元計算增長了 6.5% 以上。世界各地區都做出了積極貢獻。我們人壽保險部門的保費增加了 10% 以上。

In terms of the commercial P&C underwriting environment, large account-related short-tail business, both admitted and E&S, is growing quite competitive. A lot more capital is chasing the business and prices are softening. We are, of course, disciplined, and we're not going to rate business below a technically adequate price. On the other hand, middle market and small commercial property, both admitted retail and non-admitted wholesale or E&S, remain much more disciplined and orderly. Rates, in fact, continue to rise and we are growing in this area. Casualty continues to firm in all areas that require rate – retail and E&S, both large account, middle-market -- and, again, we're growing. Financial lines remains soft.

就商業財產險和意外險承保環境而言，大帳戶相關的短尾業務（包括已承保業務和風險與責任業務）的競爭日益激烈。越來越多的資本追逐該業務，導致價格走軟。當然，我們是嚴守紀律的，我們不會將業務評級定在低於技術上合適的價格。另一方面，中型市場和小型商業地產，包括獲準經營的零售業和未獲準經營的批發業或電子與零售業，仍然更規範有序。事實上，利率持續上升，我們在這個領域也在發展。在所有需要費率的領域，意外險業務繼續保持堅挺——零售和 E&S，包括大客戶和中端市場——而且，我們正在再次成長。金融線仍然疲軟。

With that as backdrop, I want to give you some more color by division. And we'll start with North America, where premiums were up 3.4%. Growth was impacted, again, by the two one-time items I mentioned: reinstatement premiums related to the California wildfires in personal insurance, and larger-than-usual, one-off structured transactions -- think loss portfolio transfers -- written last year in our Major Accounts commercial division. Adjusting for both, North America was up 6.4%, including growth of 10.1% in personal insurance and 5.3% in commercial. Commercial P&C lines were up 6.4%. And financial lines were down 1.3%. Looking through those one-time items is a more representative view of our run-rate growth for North America commercial P&C.

以此為背景，我想透過劃分為大家提供更多色彩。我們先從北美開始，那裡的保費上漲了 3.4%。成長再次受到我提到的兩個一次性項目的影響：個人保險中與加州野火相關的恢復保費，以及去年我們主要帳戶商業部門簽訂的比平常更大的一次性結構化交易 - 想想損失投資組合轉移。經過兩者調整後，北美成長了 6.4%，其中個人保險成長 10.1%，商業保險成長 5.3%。商業財產及意外險上漲 6.4%。金融線路下跌了1.3%。透過查看這些一次性項目，我們可以更全面地了解北美商業財產和意外保險的運作率成長。

Premiums in our very large middle market division increased almost 8%, an excellent result, with P&C up over 10%, and financial lines down about 2%. Premiums in our Major Account & Specialty division declined 1.7%. Adjusting for the one-time transactions, they were up 3.1%, 3.6% in P&C and financial lines down 1%. Major & Specialty is comprised of our E&S business, which was up 10.7%, and our Major Accounts retail business, which was down 1.3%. Overall commercial pricing for property and casualty excluding financial lines and comp was up 8.3%, with rates up 6.4%, an exposure change of 1.8%. Going a step further, property pricing was up 3.1%, with rates down 0.7%, offset by exposure change of 3.8%. For property, pricing was down 9.6% in large account business, both admitted and E&S, and up 10.2% in middle and small, again, both admitted and E&S. Casualty pricing in North America was up 13.4%, with rates up 12.6% and exposure up 0.7%. Financial lines pricing was down 3.2%, and that's all rate. In comp, primary comp pricing was flat, while large account risk management was up 7.5%.

我們規模非常大的中型市場部門的保費增長了近 8%，這是一個非常好的結果，其中財產險和意外險的保費增長了 10% 以上，而金融險的保費下降了約 2%。我們大客戶和專業部門的保費下降了 1.7%。經一次性交易調整後，保險業務上漲 3.1%，其中財產險和意外險上漲 3.6%，金融險下跌 1%。主要及專業業務包括 E&S 業務（成長 10.7%）及主要客戶零售業務（下降 1.3%）。不包括金融險和補償險的財產和意外險整體商業價格上漲 8.3%，費率上漲 6.4%，風險敞口變化為 1.8%。進一步來看，房地產價格上漲 3.1%，利率下降 0.7%，但風險敞口變動 3.8%。對於房地產而言，大客戶業務（包括承認客戶和 E&S 客戶）的價格下跌了 9.6%，而中型和小型業務（包括承認客戶和 E&S 客戶）的價格上漲了 10.2%。北美傷亡險定價上漲 13.4%，費率上漲 12.6%，風險敞口上漲 0.7%。金融線路定價下降了 3.2%，這就是全部利率。在同類產品中，主要同類產品定價持平，而大額帳戶風險管理上漲了 7.5%。

In North America commercial, our selected loss-cost trend has declined modestly, from 6.8% in 2024 to 6.5%, with casualty running 8.9% and property 4.5%. We are mindful of a potential impact tariffs could have on short-tail lines of business and are watching closely.

在北美商業領域，我們選定的損失成本趨勢小幅下降，從 2024 年的 6.8% 下降至 6.5%，其中意外險為 8.9%，財產險為 4.5%。我們注意到關稅可能對短尾業務的影響，並正在密切關注。

On the consumer side of North America, our high-net-worth personal lines business had another very strong quarter with premium growth of 10.1% adjusted for the reinstatement premiums. New business growth was almost 20%. Premiums in our upper high-net-worth segments grew over 16%. Homeowners pricing was up 12.5% in the quarter and ahead of loss costs, which are running 8.7%.

在北美的消費者方面，我們的高淨值個人險業務又度過了一個非常強勁的季度，根據復保費調整後的保費增長率為 10.1%。新業務成長近20%。我們高淨值高端客戶的保費成長了 16% 以上。本季度，房主價格上漲了 12.5%，高於損失成本的 8.7%。

Turning to our international general insurance operations, premiums were up 1.8%, or 6.5% in constant dollars. The dollar was considerably stronger in the first quarter versus a year ago but has substantially declined in value versus major currencies in recent weeks. In the quarter, international commercial lines grew about 7.5% and consumer was up 5%.

談到我們的國際一般保險業務，保費上漲了 1.8%，以固定美元計算上漲了 6.5%。美元在第一季較去年同期明顯走強，但近幾週兌主要貨幣大幅貶值。本季度，國際商業航線成長約 7.5%，消費者航線成長 5%。

From a region of the world perspective, Asia and Latin America both grew 6.1% while Europe grew 5.5%, including growth of 6% on the Content. Premiums in our London wholesale business were up nearly 8%. In our international retail commercial business, P&C pricing was up 2.6%, and financial lines pricing was down 5.5%. The loss-cost trend in international retail is in fact down 80 basis points from 2024, from 5.8% to 5.0%.

從全球區域來看，亞洲和拉丁美洲均成長6.1%，歐洲成長5.5%，其中內容成長6%。我們倫敦批發業務的保費上漲了近8%。在我們的國際零售商業業務中，財產險和意外險定價上漲了 2.6%，金融險定價下降了 5.5%。事實上，國際零售業的損失成本趨勢從 2024 年起下降了 80 個基點，從 5.8% 降至 5.0%。

Our global reinsurance business had a strong quarter with premium growth of 14%. In our international life insurance business, which is fundamentally Asia, premiums and deposits were up 15.5% in constant dollars and in Combined Insurance Company, our U.S. worksite business grew 18.6%. Our life division produced over $290 million of pre-tax income in the quarter, up 15.7% in constant dollars.

本季我們的全球再保險業務表現強勁，保費成長了 14%。在我們的國際人壽保險業務（主要在亞洲）中，保費和存款以不變美元計算增長了 15.5％，而在聯合保​​險公司中，我們的美國工作現場業務增長了 18.6％。我們的人壽保險部門本季創造了超過 2.9 億美元的稅前收入，以不變美元計算成長了 15.7%。

In summary, we are in the risk business and volatility is a feature. While we were impacted by the wildfires, our underlying fundamentals are excellent, and we had a good quarter. As I observed at the beginning of the year, about 80% of our global P&C business, commercial and consumer, and our life business have very good growth prospects. In fact, when you listen as I read to you and described going across divisions, the growth rate of the various businesses, FX aside, I think that speaks to the broad nature and the 80% I'm talking about. There is a lot of opportunity, and I'm mindful that the external environment has become more uncertain. I have confidence in what we can control, and in that regard, in our ability to continue growing operating and earnings and EPS at a double-digit rate, CATs and FX notwithstanding.

總而言之，我們從事的是風險業務，波動性是我們的一個特點。雖然我們受到了野火的影響，但我們的基本面非常好，而且我們這個季度的業績也不錯。正如我在年初觀察到的，我們全球約 80% 的財產和意外保險業務、商業和消費者保險以及壽險業務都具有非常好的成長前景。事實上，當我讀給您聽並描述跨部門、各項業務的增長率（除了外匯）時，我認為這說明了廣泛的性質以及我所說的 80%。機會很多，但我也注意到外部環境變得更加不確定。我對我們的控制能力充滿信心，在這方面，儘管存在 CAT 和外匯影響，我們仍有能力繼續以兩位數的速度增長營業收入和每股收益。

I'm going to turn the call over to Peter, and then we're going to come back and take your questions.

我將把電話轉給彼得，然後我們再回來回答你們的問題。

Good morning. Our strong first quarter results were supported by exceptional balance sheet strength and liquidity. Book value now stands at $65.7 billion and reached an all-time high of $164 on a per share basis and total invested assets were $152.3 billion. The quarter produced adjusted operating cash flow of $2 billion, including approximately $600 million of net loss payments for California wildfires. In the quarter, we returned $751 million of capital to shareholders, including $385 million in share repurchases and $366 million in dividends. The average share price on our repurchases for the quarter was $286.18.

早安.我們強勁的第一季業績得益於出色的資產負債表實力和流動性。目前帳面價值為 657 億美元，每股達到 164 美元的歷史最高水平，總投資資產為 1,523 億美元。本季調整後的營運現金流為 20 億美元，其中包括約 6 億美元的加州野火淨損失賠償。本季度，我們向股東返還了 7.51 億美元的資本，其中包括 3.85 億美元的股票回購和 3.66 億美元的股息。本季我們回購的平均股價為 286.18 美元。

Book value for the quarter was favorably impacted by unrealized market to market gains on our high-quality fixed income portfolio due to declining interest rates. Book and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI grew 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively, for the quarter. As you know, rates have since backed up.

由於利率下降，本季的帳面價值受到我們高品質固定收益投資組合的未實現市場對市場收益的正面影響。本季度，不包括 AOCI 的每股帳面價值和有形帳面價值分別成長了 0.9% 和 1.6%。正如你們所知，利率已經回升。

Our core operating return on tangible equity for the quarter is 13%, while our core operating ROE for the quarter was 8.6%. The quarter included pre-tax catastrophe losses of $1.64 billion. Excluding the California wildfires, the approximately $170 million balance was principally weather related, split 74% U.S. and 26% internationally.

本季我們的核心營運有形資產回報率為 13%，而本季我們的核心營運 ROE 為 8.6%。本季的稅前災難損失為 16.4 億美元。除加州山火外，約 1.7 億美元的損失主要與天氣有關，其中美國損失 74%，國際損失 26%。

Prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was a favorable $268 million pre-tax, with favorable development of $313 million in short-tail lines, a mix of commercial and consumer, and unfavorable development of $45 million in long-tail commercial lines.

我們活躍公司的前期發展在本季度取得了 2.68 億美元的稅前利潤，其中短尾產品線（商業和消費者混合）取得了 3.13 億美元的利潤，而長尾商業產品線取得了 4,500 萬美元的不利發展。

Turning to investments, our A-rated portfolio produced adjusted net investment income of $1.67 billion, which was at the lower end of our 6-month guidance and was negatively impacted by approximately $25 million of lower-than-usual private equity distributions and realizations and $10 million of unfavorable FX movements. The income generated from our public fixed income, private credit, and Strategic Holdings portfolios performed in line with our expectations. While the direction of financial markets remains uncertain and volatile, we expect second quarter adjusted net investment income to be at the midpoint of our previously provided 6-month guidance.

談到投資，我們的 A 級投資組合產生了 16.7 億美元的調整後淨投資收益，處於我們 6 個月指導的低端，並受到約 2500 萬美元低於平常的私募股權分配和實現以及 1000 萬美元不利的外匯變動的負面影響。我們的公共固定收益、私人信貸和策略控股投資組合產生的收入符合我們的預期。儘管金融市場的走向仍然不確定且不穩定，但我們預計第二季調整後的淨投資收益將達到我們先前提供的 6 個月指引的中點。

Our paid to incurred ratio for the quarter was 87%, or 86%, excluding CATs, PPD, and agriculture. Our core effective tax rate was within our previously guided range at 19.1%. We continue to expect our annual core operating effective tax rate to be in the range of 19% to 19.5%.

本季我們的已付款與已發生比率為 87%，不包括 CAT、PPD 和農業則為 86%。我們的核心有效稅率在我們先前指導的範圍內，為 19.1%。我們繼續預計年度核心營運有效稅率將在 19% 至 19.5% 之間。

I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.

我現在將電話轉回給凱倫。

Thank you. And at this point, we're happy to take the questions.

謝謝。現在，我們很樂意回答這些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

（操作員指示）格雷戈里·彼得斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Okay. Good morning, everyone. So Evan, in your comments, you recognize your 80% growth --

好的。大家早安。所以 Evan，在你的評論中，你承認了你的 80% 的成長--

Sorry, Can you start again? You garbled in the beginning. We didn't get it.

抱歉，您可以重新開始嗎？你一開始就搞錯了。我們沒有得到它。

Got it. Good morning, everyone. Did you hear that? Okay. All right. So in your comments, Evan, you talked about the 80% of the business and the growth outlook. The tariffs are an issue, a potential for increasing inflationary pressures. You called out the risk of recession. And frankly, it feels like there's increasing price competition in many lines of property casualty insurance, both in North America and globally.

知道了。大家早安。你聽到了嗎？好的。好的。因此，埃文，在您的評論中，您談到了 80% 的業務和成長前景。關稅是一個問題，有可能增加通膨壓力。您指出了經濟衰退的風險。坦白說，無論是在北美還是在全球範圍內，許多財產意外險領域的價格競爭似乎都在日益激烈。

So with all of that, how are you thinking about the growth strategy for the company both inside and outside the U.S.?

那麼，考慮到所有這些，您如何考慮公司在美國國內和國外的成長策略？

Yeah, there's no change to our strategy. Our strategy is enduring. We see growth opportunities that sometimes you get more joy for the pleasure depending on market conditions, sometimes you get less. That doesn't change the opportunities. And I think as I just went through for you, it's steady with, and I'll put a point on it, from what we talked about at year end. We talked about it at investor dinners, what my shareholder letter speaks to, middle market and small business globally for us, growth opportunities. It varies. That's a big space. And we have our own unique strategies to pursue that opportunity. And it is a global opportunity again. E&S in the US, which again, frankly, is the theme of small commercial and middle market commercial. Our personal lines business in the US, our consumer business overseas. And then, of course, there are areas of large account business that continue to show good growth opportunity right now to us. And some of that is more tactical, and some of it is more strategic. Yes, property is growing. And everything I've had to say is contemplating the underwriting environment as we see it, which is not – directionally not a surprise to us. And we've been talking about it, property growing more competitive in large account, whether it's E&S or admitted. Middle market, property and small remains more disciplined that way. And casualty business is responding to loss cost environment.

是的，我們的策略沒有改變。我們的策略是持久的。我們看到了成長機會，有時你會根據市場狀況獲得更多的快樂，有時你會得到更少的快樂。這不會改變機會。我認為，正如我剛才為您介紹的那樣，它是穩定的，並且根據我們在年底討論的內容，我會對此提出一點看法。我們在投資者晚宴上討論了這個問題，我的股東信中談到了全球中端市場和小型企業對我們來說的成長機會。它因人而異。那是一個很大的空間。我們有自己獨特的策略來追求這一機會。這又是一個全球性的機會。美國的 E&S，坦白說，是小型商業和中型市場商業的主題。我們在美國有個人險業務，在海外有消費者險業務。當然，大客戶業務的某些領域目前仍向我們展現出良好的成長機會。其中一些更具戰術性，而另一些則更具戰略性。是的，房地產正在成長。我所說的一切都是基於我們對承保環境的考慮，這對我們來說並不令人意外。我們一直在談論這個問題，無論是 E&S 還是承認的，房地產在大額帳戶中都變得越來越有競爭力。這樣一來，中型市場、房地產市場和小型市場就更規範了。意外險業​​務正應對損失成本環境。

And then you add all to all of it, the things we've been doing to improve Chubb in terms of our presence geographically, in terms of how we approach segments of business, in terms of industries that we have an expertise or focus on, think of climate+ right now, think of lines of business like cyber.

然後，你把所有這些加在一起，我們一直在做的事情就是改善 Chubb 的地理分佈，在我們處理業務領域的方式，在我們擁有專業知識或重點關注的行業方面，想想現在的氣候+，想想網絡等業務線。

And then you think of our technology and what we've done that way and our use of data that allows us to access more customers, depending on geography, and to partner with different forms of distribution to reach customer segments, whether it's middle market in Asia, or it's automobile in Mexico, or frankly, it's pet insurance in the United States. And I could go on. Thank you for the question.

然後你會想到我們的技術以及我們所做的工作以及我們對數據的使用，這使我們能夠根據地理位置接觸到更多的客戶，並與不同形式的分銷商合作以接觸客戶群，無論是亞洲的中端市場，還是墨西哥的汽車市場，或者坦率地說，美國的寵物保險。我還可以繼續。謝謝你的提問。

Thank you for the details. I have a follow up. I was going to go in one direction, but then you brought up technology. And for us on the outside, when we ask you about technology, we'll get a couple sentence answer, but it's really hard for us to figure out what's really going on. And what's sort of maintenance technology spend versus what's game changing. In your annual report, you put a technology sort of theme on the cover. So maybe you can spend a minute and give us some additional commentary on the technology piece as part of your first answer.

感謝您提供詳細資訊。我有一個後續行動。我本來想朝一個方向發展，但你卻提到了科技。對於我們局外人來說，當我們問你關於科技的問題時，我們會得到幾句話的答案，但我們很難弄清楚到底發生了什麼事。維護技術支出與遊戲規則改變相比如何？在您的年度報告中，您在封面上放置了一個技術主題。因此，也許您可以花一點時間，在第一個回答中就技術部分給我們一些額外的評論。

Yeah, I understand, you're in a place where you make the comment, it's hard for you guys to figure out what's going on. I got it. And we have no intention of being more transparent than we are. I've said before, we spend over $1 billion, it's about $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion on technology. Roughly half is maintenance and managing what we got 50%, 55% of it.

是的，我明白，你們發表評論的地方，你們很難弄清楚發生了什麼事。我得到了它。我們無意變得更加透明。我之前說過，我們在技術上花了超過 10 億美元，其中約 11 億美元、12 億美元。大約一半是維護和管理，其中50%到55%。

And the balance is development of all kinds, whether it's legacy, more what you think of as legacy modernized to provide straight through processing; whether it is technology around the use of data to improve analytics, to improve our AI capabilities to supplement what humans do or replace what humans do or improve our insight; whether it's technology that allows us to connect to both customer and distribution partners in an efficient way; whether it's technology and how it's used that speeds up our cycle times of change, we're just far up the road in this.

平衡在於各種發展，無論是遺留問題，還是您認為的現代化遺留問題，以提供直通式處理；無論是圍繞使用數據來改進分析的技術，還是改進我們的人工智能能力來補充人類的工作或取代人類的工作或提高我們的洞察力；是否是技術讓我們能夠以有效的方式與客戶和分銷合作夥伴建立技術聯繫；無論是技術還是進步的技術方面，這已經加速了技術還是我們的技術進步。

And technology helps to maintain what is the best expense ratio in the industry. And over time, even lower that expense ratio. So thanks a lot, Greg.

科技有助於維持業界最佳的費用率。隨著時間的推移，費用率甚至會降低。非常感謝，格雷格。

Yeah, there was some actually some useful information in that answer. So thanks for your time.

是的，答案中確實有一些有用的信息。感謝您抽出時間。

There you go. I just kept it at a certain level. I can't give a roadmap to everyone else who would like one from us.

就這樣。我只是將其保持在一定水平。我無法向所有想從我們這裡得到路線圖的人提供路線圖。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Mike Zaremski。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. In regards to the outlook commentary you made, Evan, about continue to expect operating income, EPS to grow at a double-digit rate. And I think you were saying ex-catastrophes and FX.

嘿，謝謝。早安.關於您所做的前景評論，埃文，繼續預計營業收入、每股收益將以兩位數的速度增長。我認為您說的是前災難和 FX。

I'm curious if you can come kind of give us a flavor of what you think catastrophe inflation is. I guess we can, we can obviously see in our models, CAT losses for you all and others. And I feel like Chubb's CAT loss has actually been better than expected but still elevated for the industry.

我很好奇您是否可以向我們簡單介紹一下您認為的災難性通貨膨脹。我想我們可以，我們可以在我們的模型中清楚地看到你們所有人和其他人的 CAT 損失。我覺得 Chubb 的 CAT 損失實際上比預期要好，但對於行業而言仍然較高。

So any sense of kind of how Chubb is thinking about weather loss inflation and whether you're able to keeping up or not? Thanks.

那麼，您是否了解 Chubb 如何看待天氣損失膨脹以及您是否能夠跟上？謝謝。

Yeah, Mike, on inflation, I gave you and put out there loss cost trends that we are using, not as proxy. I don't have a crystal ball, and I cannot prognosticate where inflation actually goes from here in terms of rate and to which goods and products it's -- any increase in inflation is fundamentally tariff related.

是的，麥克，關於通貨膨脹，我給你提供了我們正在使用的損失成本趨勢，而不是作為代理。我沒有水晶球，無法預測通貨膨脹率實際上會如何變化以及會涉及哪些商品和產品——任何通貨膨脹的增長從根本上來說都與關稅有關。

And that's a moving target and a chaotic picture at the moment. And it's the kind of thing that we can stay on top of if we're watching early data around goods and around labor costs that have to do with physical property construction, reconstruction, infrastructure, et cetera. So that part we're keeping our eye on, but I gave you -- I gave you some sense of inflation.

目前，這是一個不斷變化的目標，而且形勢混亂。如果我們關注與實體資產建設、重建、基礎設施等相關的商品和勞動成本的早期數據，我們就能掌握最新情況。所以我們一直在關注這一部分，但我給了你——我給了你一些通貨膨脹的感覺。

On FX, we have no idea. It bounces around, it's ephemeral, the direction of travel and if policies continue is a weaker dollar. When it comes to catastrophes, well, you're asking me a crystal ball view. There is a natural volatility. Talk about it all the time that around CATs, you're never going to hit what you price for exactly, which is what the AALs are. And what you're expected is in a quarter, it's either above it, it's below it. It moves around and whether one year is going to be heavier than the year before, which for us was lighter last year and the year before that. Who knows? I don't do any hand wringing about it and we're not.

對於 FX，我們一無所知。它反覆波動，轉瞬即逝，如果政策繼續下去，旅行的方向就是美元走弱。當談到災難時，好吧，你問我水晶球的觀點。存在自然的波動。人們總是談論 CAT，你永遠不可能準確達到你的定價，而 AAL 就是這個價格。而你預期在一個季度內，它要麼高於這個數字，要麼低於這個數字。它時常發生變化，一年比一年重，而對我們來說，去年和前年都比較輕。誰知道呢？我不會為此而憂心忡忡，我們也不會。

And we update, which is more important to us. We update our view around CATs by peril on an ongoing basis as data, additional data comes in and we have more insight and that allows us to ensure that the way we're pricing for risk and our accumulation appetite around CAT perils by geography are within what we'd imagine and contemplate. That's how we run the business. And volatility quarter to quarter, that's not our obsession.

我們也會進行更新，這對我們來說更為重要。隨著數據、附加數據的湧入以及我們獲得更多洞察力，我們會不斷更新對按風險劃分的 CAT 的看法，這使我們能夠確保我們按地區定價風險定價的方式以及對按地區劃分的 CAT 風險的積累偏好符合我們的想像和考慮範圍。這就是我們的經營方式。我們並不關心季度間的波動。

Understood. That's helpful. I'm just switching gears quickly --

明白了。這很有幫助。我只是快速切換一下--

By the way, I gave you all that as an answer, but we don't give guidance.

順便說一句，我給了你所有這些答案，但我們不提供指導。

I mean, understood as you know that we tend to look at recent CAT loads and update future CAT loads taking into the new average. So switching gears --

我的意思是，如您所知，我們傾向於查看最近的 CAT 負載並根據新的平均值更新未來的 CAT 負載。所以換個角度--

I've never found the kind of consensus, which is an aggregation of different analysts' work. I've never found it, something other than reasonably rational to make. I don't look at point estimates. I look at the trend of it in the relative neighborhood of quantum and I've never found it anything but rational.

我從未發現過這種共識，它是不同分析師工作的集合。我從來沒有發現過除了合理合理之外的其他東西。我不看點估計。我觀察了它在量子相對鄰域中的趨勢，我發現它是合理的。

Okay. I understood. I feel like maybe back in the day, there was a view of your CAT load in the proxy, but I can't remember if that was removed or still there. But I'm just switching gears real quick to I think much of our incoming from investors is focused on North America commercial, social inflation, reserve releases very strong this quarter.

好的。我明白了。我覺得也許在過去，代理中可以看到您的 CAT 負載，但我不記得它是否已刪除或是否仍然存在。但我很快就轉換話題，我認為投資者的大部分關注點都集中在本季北美商業、社會通膨和儲備釋放非常強勁的方面。

Any comments on kind of the environment? I know you gave us the update on what you felt your loss cost inflation was. But any commentary on puts and takes on reserve releases or even the underlying loss ratio was excellent and improved this quarter? Thanks.

對於環境類型有什麼評論嗎？我知道您向我們通報了您認為的損失成本通膨的最新情況。但是，對於本季度準備金釋放的看跌期權和看漲期權，甚至基礎損失率的任何評論是否都很出色並且有所改善？謝謝。

No, the only thing I will say for those who are obsessed simply about North America, it's a large part of our business, but it really -- it just -- it misses the story of Chubb and who we are. The global nature of the business outside of the United States is not some gray mass that just is a thing out there. It's 54 countries in vital regions of the world.

不，對於那些只沉迷於北美的人來說，我只想說，北美是我們業務的重要組成部分，但實際上——它只是——它忽略了 Chubb 的故事和我們是誰。美國以外的業務的全球性並不是一些僅僅存在於外面的灰色物質。它涵蓋世界重要地區的54個國家。

And you look at the growth and you look at the quantum and you look at the contribution to simply obsess about North America and North America loss costs, I think actually does investors a disservice, but I leave it to the -- to those to do their job as they think they ought to.

如果你看一下成長情況，看一下數量，看一下對北美和北美損失成本的痴迷，我認為實際上對投資者不利，但我會把它留給那些人去做他們認為應該做的事情。

On the reserve releases, we review again a cohort of portfolios, a different cohort each quarter and update our view of development. This quarter is generally a smaller quarter on what we review on both the property and the casualty side of the business. And so there was -- this was just an amalgamation of those various long-tail lines, smaller portfolios, admitted and E&S and property is the same, physical lines are the same.

在儲備釋放方面，我們再次檢視一批投資組合，每季檢視不同的一批，並更新我們的發展觀點。從我們對財產險和意外險業務的審查來看，本季整體而言規模較小。所以，這只是各種長尾線、較小投資組合的融合，承認的 E&S 和財產是相同的，物理線是相同的。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的布萊恩·梅雷迪斯。

Hey, good morning, Evan. First question. I believe your global property CAT reinsurance program renewed on April 1. Any kind of changes that we should be thinking about there, cost retentions, et cetera?

嘿，早上好，艾文。第一個問題。我相信您的全球財產 CAT 再保險計劃已於 4 月 1 日續保。我們應該考慮哪些變化，成本保留等等？

No, sir.

不，先生。

Okay. So fairly similar to what it is kind of laid out in the 10-K right now?

好的。那麼，這與目前 10-K 中的佈局非常相似嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

Perfect. Thank you. And then the second question is something I've been getting from some investors. I'm just curious, how do you think about allocating capital into areas that maybe the kind of political kind of environment right now is a little more contentious or maybe more than a little more contentious, areas like China? How do you think about that right now, as far as your capital allocation decisions?

完美的。謝謝。第二個問題是我從一些投資者那裡得到的。我只是好奇，您如何看待將資本配置到目前政治環境爭議較大甚至更激烈的地區，例如中國？就您的資本配置決策而言，您現在如何看待這個問題？

Well, the world is contentious I have noticed. And our capital allocation, you see that we made an acquisition of a modest nature in Southeast Asia. We'll continue leaning in that way. I think it's a metaphor for the notion that it's steady as she goes, China, U.S. aside, the balance of the world, there's always going to be a certain amount of volatility, there is. And as a multinational, you know that. We're mindful of the increased volatility that is occurring as a result of our -- in particular, our administration's approach to foreign policy and trade as it's emerging. And that keeps us mindful.

嗯，我注意到這個世界充滿爭議。就我們的資本配置而言，您會看到我們在東南亞進行了適度的收購。我們將繼續朝這個方向努力。我認為這是一個比喻，表示世界平衡是穩定的，除了中國和美國之外，總是會有一定程度的波動。作為一家跨國公司，您知道這一點。我們注意到，由於我們的政策——特別是我們政府的外交政策和貿易方針——正在發生的波動正在加劇。這讓我們保持警惕。

But -- and we'll be thoughtful, we'll be prudent, but our strategy is our strategy. We're not short-term investors. We're long-term investors. What we invest in a country is permanent. And we participate in the economic and social development in those countries. And that is -- whether it is the United States, or it is Thailand. We are participants in that. And where we -- and some have more volatility than others do. In a word, it's steady as it goes for us.

但是──我們會深思熟慮，我們會謹慎，但我們的策略就是我們的策略。我們不是短期投資者。我們是長期投資者。我們在一個國家所進行的投資是永久性的。我們也參與這些國家的經濟和社會發展。那就是——無論是美國，還是泰國。我們就是其中的參與者。而我們 — — 有些人的波動性比其他人更大。一句話，我們進展很順利。

When it comes to China, which I think is on people's minds in particular, we're not actually investing any additional capital and haven't been for a bit of time. And I don't foresee additional capital investment in China. Our exposure is our exposure.

說到中國，我認為人們特別關注這個市場，我們實際上並沒有投資任何額外的資本，而且已經有一段時間沒有了。我預計中國不會增加資本投資。我們的曝光就是我們的曝光。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And by the way, the money doesn't burn a hole in our pocket. How are we allocating capital? We're allocating it for growth in our business, where it occurs. We're allocating capital for investments. And right now, we're earning 5.5% north of that in our investment portfolio. That seems like a pretty darn good bet to me, and I'll put as much as I can into that.

順便說一句，這些錢不會花光我們的錢包。我們如何分配資本？我們將把它分配給我們的業務成長。我們正在分配資金用於投資。目前，我們的投資組合收益已超過此水準 5.5%。對我來說，這似乎是一個非常好的賭注，我會盡我所能地投入其中。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Good morning. Just a question. It definitely sounds like a tale of two cities on the property side with still the small and middle market remaining healthy, but definitely some areas of competition picking up in large account and E&S.

早安.只是一個問題。這聽起來確實像是房地產方面的兩個城市的故事，中小型市場仍然保持健康，但大客戶和 E&S 領域的一些競爭肯定正在加劇。

I'm wondering if you can help me think through just your view, Evan, if you think sort of that competition that we're seeing in the large account and E&S market is sort of a sign of what's to come in the small and middle market? Or is there something structural that's different between those two different markets that we should think about where the pricing in the middle market and small market is more durable on the property side?

埃文，我想知道您是否可以幫助我思考您的觀點，您是否認為我們在大客戶和 E&S 市場中看到的競爭是中小型市場未來發展的標誌？或者這兩個不同的市場之間是否存在一些結構性差異，我們應該考慮中型市場和小型市場的定價在房地產方面是否更持久？

So David, it's always been structurally different. That's the point. Large account business is brokerage driven. You don't need a lot of physical presence. You need not a lot of capability as a company. You need capacity. You need some underwriters And you can participate in the capacity play of large account business. Welcome to a lot of E&S. Welcome to London open market. Welcome to large companies, companies that engage in large account business and have just a few urban locations to do it at.

所以，大衛，它的結構一直是不同的。這就是重點。大額帳戶業務由經紀業務驅動。你不需要花太多的力氣。作為一家公司，你不需要擁有太多的能力。你需要能力。你需要一些承銷商，並且可以參與大帳戶業務的能力發揮。歡迎來到 E&S。歡迎來到倫敦公開市場。歡迎來到大公司，從事大客戶業務並且只在少數城市地點開展業務的公司。

Now, being the lead on those accounts, issuing the paper, managing the claims, doing the engineering, well, that starts to separate it and how you participate. But think about shared and layered large account business. It's a capacity play for most of it, up and down the chain. So you come and you put a blind down.

現在，作為這些帳戶的負責人，發布文件，管理索賠，進行工程，嗯，這開始將其與您的參與方式區分開來。但想想共享和分層的大帳戶業務。對於整個鏈條而言，這都是一種產能發揮。所以你來了並放下了盲點。

Middle market, small commercial insurance is widely distributed. Thousands of producers and agents, small average premiums. They typically don't buy one line from you. They buy multiple lines from you. You've got to have presence. You've got to have a lot of capability to support the development of that kind of business.

中型市場、小型商業保險分佈廣泛。數千家生產商和代理商，平均保費較少。他們通常不會購買你的任何產品。他們從您那裡購買多條線路。你必須有存在感。你必須擁有強大的能力來支持這類業務的發展。

Yeah, on the fringes, there are ends of it that get boxed up by a few brokers and they bring it in a facilitized way. But the vast majority of the market is now you're talking about broad geographic reach, local reach, local capability, multi-line, claims capability, engineering capability in a broadly distributed way.

是的，在邊緣地帶，有些經紀人會把貨物打包起來，然後以一種便利的方式運送出去。但現在絕大多數市場都在談論廣泛的地理覆蓋範圍、本地覆蓋範圍、本地能力、多線、索賠能力、廣泛分佈的工程能力。

David, welcome to axiomatic.

大衛，歡迎來到公理。

Thank you. I appreciate that. I guess my mental model, I've always thought large account, more cyclical sort of leads the middle market by a year or so --

謝謝。我很感激。我想我的思維模型，我一直認為大帳戶，更具週期性的，領先中端市場一年左右--

But that's right. That's why.

但這是真的。這就是原因。

Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

是的。是的。好的。

Well, you asked the question structural. It was a good word. So I focused on the word structural.

嗯，你問的是結構性問題。這是一個很好的字。所以我把重點放在結構這個詞了。

Great. Thank you. And then just as a follow up, within the Overseas General business, I noticed, the Europe growth ticked up a little bit, probably too early to see any signs of any sort of fiscal spend over there resulting in an uptick in growth. But I'm wondering if how you're thinking about that, and having that exposure, how that positions you relative to the US market, given all the headwinds that you sort of called out.

偉大的。謝謝。然後作為後續行動，在海外一般業務中，我注意到，歐洲的成長略有上升，可能還為時過早，無法看到任何財政支出導致成長上升的跡象。但我想知道，考慮到您所指出的所有不利因素，您如何看待這個問題，如何獲得這種曝光度，以及您相對於美國市場的定位如何。

Yeah. Are you thinking economic outlook for those regions?

是的。您是否考慮過這些地區的經濟前景？

Yeah. And economic with like the fiscal spending and what that might do to sort of boost growth over there relative to some of the potential weakness that might be coming in the U.S.

是的。以及財政支出等經濟因素，相對於美國可能出現的一些潛在疲軟趨勢，這可能會對經濟成長產生怎樣的影響？

Yeah. We have the pleasure in the United States, and we ought to really cherish it of being the reserve currency of the world, which gives us a borrowing capability. It certainly doesn't give any other region or country of the world. And let's be careful how we abuse that, or we won't have that privilege. Others are more constrained in their ability to use fiscal stimulus.

是的。我們很高興擁有美國，我們應該真正珍惜它作為世界儲備貨幣的地位，這給了我們借貸能力。它當然不會給予世界上任何其他地區或國家。我們要小心不要濫用這項權利，否則我們將失去這項特權。其他國家實施財政刺激的能力則受到更多限制。

Europe, there'll be more fiscal stimulus. it'll be both in the security and maybe in certain industries, as the Europeans are determined to stand on their own two feet, be more independent a bit. And the key is Germany and they're unlocking the door to much more fiscal, which will support economic growth.

歐洲將會推出更多財政刺激措施。這不僅體現在安全領域，也體現在某些特定的產業，因為歐洲人決心自力更生，變得更加獨立。關鍵在於德國，他們正在放開更多財政政策，以支持經濟成長。

Now, all over the world, the theme in our mind is that whatever we thought economic growth was going to be six months ago, to state the obvious, that number has come down. what it'll actually be, we don't know, and it'll vary by region. Asia will be impacted. Consumers in Asia will be impacted. Export and domestic industries will be impacted. How much is a question mark, because the fact set is not clear to us yet.

現在，在世界各地，我們心中的想法是，無論六個月前我們認為經濟成長會是多少，顯而易見的是，這個數字已經下降了。我們不知道它實際上會是什麼，而且它會因地區而異。亞洲將受到影響。亞洲消費者將受到影響。出口和國內產業將受到影響。到底有多少是一個問號，因為事實我們還不清楚。

But for Chubb, it'll be steady as it goes. It means that growth could be, better, growth could be a little worse, don't know. And all of that we had in mind when I said I am confident and remain confident in our ability to grow earnings and EPS at a double-digit rate, and are thinking about what could be volatility around growth, notwithstanding that, that won't have a significant impact on it at this time.

但對於 Chubb 來說，它會穩步前進。這意味著成長可能會更好，也可能會更差一些，不知道。當我說我對我們的盈利和每股收益以兩位數的速度增長的能力充滿信心並且仍然充滿信心時，我們都考慮到了這些，並且正在考慮增長方面可能出現的波動，儘管如此，這在目前不會對增長產生重大影響。

Am I making sense to you?

你說我這麼說有道理嗎？

Yeah. Yeah. Makes sense. Thank you.

是的。是的。有道理。謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

Great. Thanks so much. And good morning. Evan, I was hoping you could take us maybe a level deeper in the judgment behind lowering loss trends in the quarter.

偉大的。非常感謝。早安.埃文，我希望您能讓我們更深入地了解本季虧損趨勢下降背後的判斷。

I'm not going any deeper. I'm not going to put out more numbers than I just gave you. It's -- I think it's stands on its own and is informative, Meyer. What -- but what can I help you with? What would you like to know?

我不會再深入了。我不會給出比剛才更多的數字。我認為它是獨立的並且具有資訊量，邁耶。什麼——但是我能幫您什麼忙？您想知道什麼？

So I guess the question that I'm seeing a lot is that the outside that social inflation is running rampant and there's a risk of tariffs, which all those equal, I guess, would argue for a higher assumed loss trend rather than coming down a little.

所以我想我經常看到的問題是，外部社會通膨猖獗，並且有關稅風險，我想，所有這些因素都會促使假設損失趨勢上升，而不是略微下降。

When you measure it up against where we were, casualty, -- we're talking by the way, it's all the right side of the decimal. So let's start with that.

當你將它與我們當時的傷亡情況進行比較時——順便說一下，這都是小數點右邊的數字。那我們就從這裡開始吧。

And on the casualty side, given the blend of business, the loss cost trend in aggregate in long-tail is up modestly, tens of basis points. And on the physical side, given the mix of business and what we see it's down tenths of points. I want to say from memory, 0.3% approximately. So, we're not talking much.

在傷亡風險方面，考慮到業務的混合，長尾險的總體損失成本趨勢小幅上升，上升了幾十個基點。從實體方面來看，考慮到業務組合和我們所看到的情況，它下降了十分之一個百分點。我想根據記憶說，大約是 0.3%。所以，我們不會說太多。

And on the physical side, look, I know what our pegs contemplate for loss cost. We’re mindful of tariffs and we will see, as we go forward. At the moment, we set our pegs conservatively and therefore, we don't see a need to adjust trend.

從物質方面來看，我知道我們的掛鉤考慮到了哪些損失成本。我們關注關稅問題，並將在未來的行動中觀察。目前，我們保守地設定了掛鉤，因此，我們認為沒有必要調整趨勢。

Okay. That is perfect. That's exactly what I was looking for. Second unrelated question. I guess one potential impact of tariffs is that there's less demand for crops, I’m thinking of soybeans going to China. What can you do with the North American agriculture to ameliorate that impact on this year's underwriting results?

好的。那太完美了。這正是我所尋找的。第二個不相關的問題。我猜關稅的一個潛在影響是農作物需求減少，我考慮的是銷往中國的大豆。您能對北美農業採取哪些措施來減輕其對今年承保結果的影響？

Yeah, right now, if I understand your question, when I look at the -- we look at the major crops, so let's take corn and soybeans. That's the majority of it. We priced the contracts, the government formula sets it, in February and you have a certain going in crop price, price insurance contracts. As you know, it's yield and price that are the exposure.

是的，現在，如果我理解你的問題，當我看——我們看主要作物，那麼讓我們來看看玉米和大豆。這就是大部分內容。我們在二月根據政府公式對合約進行定價，並且確定農作物價格和保險合約價格。如您所知，收益率和價格就是風險敞口。

And right now, actually, corn and soybeans are within a few percentage points of the February pricing. There hadn't been much change. Beyond that, which I won't go into any detail on because it's proprietary, like reinsurance, we use hedging to protect a certain degree of volatility. And let's just say we're mindful of that tool and we know how to employ it and do it.

實際上，目前玉米和大豆的價格與二月的價格相差只有幾個百分點。並沒有太大的變化。除此之外，我不會詳細討論，因為它是專有的，就像再保險一樣，我們使用對沖來保護一定程度的波動性。我們可以這麼說，我們記住了這個工具，並且知道如何使用它並做到這一點。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Hey, good morning. First one I had for you is on casualty. Just seeing the rate continue to accelerate, loss trend also up a little bit, is the price adequacy get into the point where that's becoming the more interesting opportunity? I'm just interested in your high-level thoughts on sort of the direction of that and how much more is needed before you'd be more interested in that as a big opportunity.

嘿，早安。我首先要問的是有關傷亡的問題。只是看到利率繼續加速，損失趨勢也略有上升，價格充足性是否達到了成為更有趣的機會的程度？我只是對您關於該方向的高層想法感興趣，以及在您對此作為一個巨大的機會更感興趣之前還需要做多少事情。

I'll repeat what I said, the casualty is getting rate where it needs to get rate and whether it is large account or it's in the middle market, we are growing our casualty exposure and I'm going to leave it at that.

我再重複一遍我說過的話，傷亡險在需要獲得利率的地方獲得利率，無論是大額帳戶還是中型市場，我們都在增加傷亡險敞口，我就不多說了。

Okay. Second one I have for you is on the reinsurance market. I know it's not a huge business for you and you don't necessarily lean in or lean out the way that some do. But I just wanted to understand how you're viewing that business, particularly headed into sort of this renewal period and increased capacity that we're seeing in property more broadly.

好的。我要問的第二個問題是關於再保險市場。我知道這對你來說並不是一個大生意，你也不必像某些人那樣主動出擊或被動躲避。但我只是想了解您如何看待這項業務，特別是進入這種更新期以及我們在房地產領域看到的更廣泛的產能增加。

What would you expect out of that market? And is that still price adequate enough to be something you want to be involved in?

您對這個市場有何期望？這個價格是否仍然足夠讓您願意參與其中？

As a buyer of reinsurance, steady as she goes. And as a seller of reinsurance, you see that we have grown this quarter. It's more property than casualty related, though we see opportunities in both.

身為再保險的購買者，她做事穩重。作為再保險銷售商，您會發現我們本季有所成長。它更多地與財產相關，而不是與傷亡有關，儘管我們在兩者中都看到了機會。

Robert Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅伯特·考克斯。

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to circle back to the tariffs. Evan, you mentioned being mindful of the impact tariffs could have on short-tail lines and it's clearly a moving target. Do you have any early sense of the magnitude of the lost trend impact? And I was also curious on how you're able to incorporate a moving target like that into your pricing strategy today, or is that still wait and see?

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。我只是想回到關稅問題上。埃文，你提到要注意關稅對短尾航線可能產生的影響，這顯然是一個不斷變化的目標。您是否對失去趨​​勢的影響程度有初步認知？我還很好奇您如何將這樣的行動目標納入您今天的定價策略中，還是仍然持觀望態度？

So you want to underwrite with facts, and you don't want to anticipate with conjecture unless you have clarity around your conjecture. Meaning, if you have 70% or 80% certainty, as an example, then we would take a certain view.

因此，您要用事實來支持，而不要用猜測來預測，除非您對自己的猜測十分清楚。意思是，例如，如果你有 70% 或 80% 的確定性，那麼我們就會採取某種觀點。

There is no clarity at the moment. It is a moving target. The administration has an objective to reach trade agreements for 90 days with a large number of countries. And what will that mean in terms of tariffs go forward? It's unclear.

目前還不清楚。它是一個移動的目標。該政府的目標是與大量國家達成 90 天的貿易協定。這對於未來的關稅意味著什麼？目前還不清楚。

I have a stated objective, just voiced, to have negotiations with China. Knowing China, knowing the complexity of our trade relationship, that will be a protracted discussion that would not be marked.

我剛才已經明確表示過，我的目標是與中國進行談判。了解中國，了解我們貿易關係的複雜性，這將是一場曠日持久且不會留下深刻印象的討論。

Demand, if tariffs remain high, will be impacted. How will that impact inflation? There's uncertainty around all of that. Now, let's get to some math. When I think about property insurance today, and I think about the current accident here, this year, keep in mind, loss ratio develops on an earned basis. So, a lot of it has already been written, it's already being earned, it's already in the can, there you go.

如果關稅持續居高不下，需求就會受到影響。這將如何影響通貨膨脹？所有這些都充滿不確定性。現在，讓我們來做數學題。當我今天思考財產保險，思考今年發生的事故時，請記住，損失率是在盈利基礎上發展的。所以，很多內容已經寫好了，已經賺到了，已經裝在罐子裡了，就這樣。

As you go forward, on a written basis, and as months go along, if we see a change in inflation, the markers that will in fact change inflation, we will adjust our pricing in that cohort. Go one step further, imagine on the physical side, how much comes from Mexico and Canada, as an example, as inputs, what will happen in terms of tariffs in North America, and in terms of USMCA negotiations.

隨著時間的流逝，從書面上看，隨著時間的推移，如果我們看到通貨膨脹發生變化，那麼實際上會改變通貨膨脹的標誌，我們就會調整該群體的定價。更進一步，想像一下，從實物方面來看，有多少來自墨西哥和加拿大，作為投入，北美的關稅方面以及 USMCA 談判方面會發生什麼變化。

So on the claim side, all of this is on our minds as we measure the change of price of goods and of labor. And all of it is on our minds as we watch negotiations that will ultimately lead to a more steady and clear environment around what will tariff levels actually be and apply to what goods. And then there's a lag time.

因此，從索賠方面來看，當我們衡量商品和勞動力價格的變化時，所有這些都在我們的考慮範圍內。當我們關注談判時，所有這些都縈繞在我們的心頭，談判最終將帶來一個更穩定和清晰的環境，決定關稅的實際水平和適用於哪些商品。然後就會出現延遲時間。

Got it. Thank you for all those details. If I could ask a follow-up, I wanted to get a sense of your view of E&S market growth for Chubb. We've talked about more competition in E&S and property, but there's also it seems like some secular tailwinds for the E&S market. Would you expect Chubb to kind of continue to grow or grow more in the E&S market versus admitted going forward?

知道了。感謝您提供所有這些詳細資訊。如果我可以問一個後續問題，我想了解您對 Chubb 的 E&S 市場成長的看法。我們討論了 E&S 和房地產領域的競爭加劇，但 E&S 市場似乎也存在一些長期的順風因素。您是否預計 Chubb 未來在 E&S 市場將繼續成長或更多成長？

I just gave commentary that said we grew E&S at 10%. I explained the property market, the casualty market, mixed in all of that. Our discipline in underwriting and what we see as opportunity, we grew E&S [10.7%] (corrected by company after the call). I also gave a sense of 80% of our business with growth opportunity go forward. So I'm going to leave it at that.

我剛剛評論說我們的 E&S 成長率為 10%。我解釋了房地產市場、意外險市場以及所有這些市場。根據我們在核保方面的紀律以及我們所看到的機會，我們的 E&S 成長了 [10.7%]（電話會議後公司進行了更正）。我還表示，我們 80% 的業務都有成長機會。所以我就不多說了。

I will now turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Karen Beyer 做結束語。請繼續。

Thank you everyone for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day.

感謝大家今天的參與。如果您有任何後續問題，我們將隨時接聽您的電話。享受這一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。