丘博保險集團 (CB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Chubb Limited Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Chubb Limited 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁凱倫·拜爾 (Karen Beyer)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to our September 30, 2024, Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters. We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures, and related details, are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

謝謝並歡迎大家參加我們 2024 年 9 月 30 日舉行的第三季財報電話會議。我們今天的報告將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與公司業績、定價和業務組合、成長機會以及經濟和市場狀況有關的陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件、收益發布和財務補充資料，這些內容可在我們的網站 Investors.chubb.com 上獲取，以了解有關可能影響這些事項的因素的更多資​​訊。今天我們也將提及非公認會計原則財務指標，其與最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節以及相關詳細資訊將在我們的收益新聞稿和財務補充中提供。

Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. And then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions today are several members of our management team.

現在我想介紹一下我們的演講者。首先，我們有董事長兼執行長埃文·格林伯格（Evan Greenberg）；其次是我們的財務長 Peter Enns。然後我們將回答您的問題。今天與我們一起協助解答您的問題的還有我們管理團隊的幾位成員。

And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

現在我很高興將電話轉給埃文。

Good morning. As you've seen, we had another really great quarter with strong, double-digit growth in both P&C underwriting and investment income leading to core operating EPS growth of over 15.5%. Global P&C premium revenue, which excludes agriculture, grew 7.6%, or 8.5% in constant dollars, which is the clearer way to view intrinsic growth, and once again reflected the broad and diversified nature of our company and the opportunities we're capitalizing on around the world with strong contributions from our North America P&C, International P&C, and Life Insurance businesses.

早安.正如您所看到的，我們又度過了一個非常出色的季度，財產險承保和投資收入均實現了兩位數的強勁增長，導致核心運營每股收益增長超過 15.5%。全球財產險保費收入（不包括農業）增長了7.6%，按不變美元計算增長了8.5%，這是看待內在增長的更清晰的方式，並再次反映了我們公司廣泛和多元化的性質以及我們正在利用的機會我們的北美財產保險、國際財產保險和人壽保險業務做出了巨大貢獻。

Core operating income for the quarter was $2.3 billion, up 14.3%. Earnings for the year are currently at record levels with net and operating income up 16.9% and 13.8%, respectively. The three sources of earnings growth - P&C underwriting, investment income and life income - each delivered a strong result.

該季度核心營業收入為 23 億美元，成長 14.3%。今年的獲利目前處於創紀錄水平，淨收入和營業收入分別成長 16.9% 和 13.8%。獲利成長的三大來源——財產險承保、投資收入和壽險收入——均取得了強勁的業績。

Our published combined ratio for the quarter was 87.7%, with P&C underwriting income of $1.5 billion, up over 11.5% despite an active quarter for the industry globally in terms of natural catastrophes - hurricanes, floods, fires, tornadoes and other severe convective storm activity.

我們公佈的本季綜合成本率為87.7%，財產險承保收入為15 億美元，儘管全球該行業在颶風、洪水、火災、龍捲風和其他強對流風暴活動等自然災害方面表現活躍，但該季度仍增長了11.5% 以上。

On an ex-cat current accident year basis, a secondary measure of underwriting, we produced record underwriting income of $2 billion, up 11.5%, with a combined ratio of 83.4%. For the year, we have produced record underwriting income on both a published and current accident year basis..

以不包括當前事故年為基礎（承保的次要衡量標準），我們創造了創紀錄的承保收入 20 億美元，增長 11.5%，綜合成本率為 83.4%。今年，我們在公佈的事故年和當前事故年的基礎上創造了創紀錄的承保收入。

As a company in the business of risk, we pride ourselves on being world-class underwriters - it's who we are. We're also asset managers with an excellent long-term record of invested asset allocation and risk-adjusted returns. Our invested asset now stands at $151 billion, and it will continue to grow as a consequence of our basic business of insurance. For the quarter, adjusted net investment income topped $1.6 billion, up 15.9%. Our fixed income portfolio yield is 4.9% versus 4.7% a year ago, and our current new money rate is averaging 5.5%.

作為一家從事風險業務的公司，我們為成為世界一流的承保人而感到自豪——這就是我們。我們也是資產管理公司，在投資資產配置和風險調整回報方面擁有出色的長期記錄。我們的投資資產目前為 1,510 億美元，並且由於我們的基本保險業務，這項資產將繼續成長。本季調整後投資淨收益超過 16 億美元，成長 15.9%。我們的固定收益投資組合收益率為 4.9%，而一年前為 4.7%，目前的新貨幣利率平均為 5.5%。

In our judgment, given the broad-based health of the U.S. economy and the pattern of inflation when one reads past the headlines, the Fed will likely take a reasonably cautious approach to lowering rates. Given the size and continued growth of our federal deficit, which is simply unsustainable, we believe the yield curve will steepen, and that too will support our future reinvestment rate. We remain confident in our ability to reinvest our cash flows at rates that will continue to accrete to the overall portfolio yield.

根據我們的判斷，考慮到美國經濟的廣泛健康狀況以及當人們閱讀頭條新聞時的通膨模式，聯準會可能會採取相當謹慎的降息方法。考慮到我們聯邦赤字的規模和持續成長（這根本不可持續），我們認為殖利率曲線將變得陡峭，這也將支持我們未來的再投資率。我們仍然對我們以將繼續增加整體投資組合收益率的利率進行現金流再投資的能力充滿信心。

Life insurance segment income of $284 million was ahead of plan, and while you know it's our policy to generally refrain from guidance, we are well on pace to exceed our life division income target of $1 billion for the year. Our annualized core operating ROE for the quarter was 13.9%, with a return on tangible equity of 21.7%. Peter will have more to say about financial items.

人壽保險部門的收入達到 2.84 億美元，超出了計劃，雖然您知道我們的政策是總體上不提供指導，但我們正在穩步超越今年人壽保險部門 10 億美元的收入目標。本季我們的年化核心營運 ROE 為 13.9%，有形股本回報率為 21.7%。彼得將有更多關於金融項目的內容。

Turning to growth, pricing, and the rate environment, Global P&C net premiums, which excludes agriculture, increased 7.6% in the quarter, or again 8.5% in constant dollars, with commercial premiums up 8.1% and consumer up 9.4%.

談到成長、定價和費率環境，本季全球財產險淨保費（不包括農業）成長了 7.6%，以固定匯率計算再次成長 8.5%，其中商業保費成長 8.1%，消費者保費成長 9.4%。

Again, growth was global and broad-based geographically by product and customer segment. North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America all contributed favorably. Life premiums grew 10.6% in constant dollars, with growth of 10% in International Life and 15% in Combined North America.

同樣，成長是全球性的，並且按產品和客戶群劃分，具有廣泛的地理基礎。北美、歐洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲都做出了積極的貢獻。以不變美元計算，壽險保費增加 10.6%，其中國際壽險保費增加 10%，北美綜合壽險保費增加 15%。

In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, market trends were consistent with those of the previous quarter. Overall, conditions are favorable in both property, which is incrementally more competitive in certain areas, and casualty, which is incrementally firmer. Loss cost inflation remained steady and within what we have contemplated in our pricing and reserving. Pricing for both remains ahead of loss costs.

就商業財產險費率環境而言，市場趨勢與上季一致。整體而言，財產險和傷亡險的情況都十分有利，財產險在某些領域的競爭力逐漸增強，傷亡險也日益穩固。損失成本通膨保持穩定，並在我們定價和準備金的預期範圍內。兩者的定價仍高於損失成本。

Property has become more competitive in the large account and E&S segments while middle market property pricing was, in fact, up over prior quarter. We are large in all three segments of the market. Our property book is well-priced and terms and conditions remain steady. As with prior quarter, casualty is firming in the areas that need rate, and we see this trend in casualty enduring. Overall, our casualty rate and price were up over prior quarter. Let me give you a little more color by division

房地產在大客戶和 E&S 領域的競爭變得更加激烈，而中型市場房地產定價實際上比上一季上升。我們在所有三個市場領域都佔有很大的份額。我們的房產價格合理，條款和條件保持穩定。與上一季一樣，需要比率的領域的傷亡人數正在增加，而且我們看到傷亡人數的這種趨勢持續存在。總體而言，我們的傷亡率和價格比上一季上升。讓我按劃分給你多一點顏色

Beginning with North America, premiums excluding agriculture were up 7.8% and consisted of 10% growth in personal insurance and 7.2% in commercial, with P&C lines up nearly 10% and financial lines down about 5%. We wrote more than $1.2 billion of new business - up over 18% versus prior year - and our renewal retention rate on a policy count basis is 89.6%. Again, both speak to the reasonably disciplined tone of the market, the power of Chubb, and our excellent operating performance.

從北美開始，不包括農業的保費上漲了 7.8%，其中個人保險增長了 10%，商業保險增長了 7.2%，財產險險增長了近 10%，金融險險下降了約 5%。我們承保了超過 12 億美元的新業務，比上一年增長了 18% 以上，以保單數量計算，我們的續保保留率為 89.6%。同樣，兩者都說明了市場的合理紀律基調、安達的力量以及我們出色的經營業績。

Premiums in our Major Accounts & Specialty division increased 7.2%, with P&C up 9.5% and financial lines down over 6%. Within Major & Specialty, our E&S business grew 11%, with strong contributions from both property and casualty related lines. Premiums in our middle market division increased just under 7%, with P&C up 10.7% and financial lines down 5.7%.

我們的主要客戶和專業險部門的保費增加了 7.2%，財產險和意外險險增加了 9.5%，而金融險則下降了 6% 以上。在專業和專業領域，我們的 E&S 業務成長了 11%，財產和傷亡相關業務做出了強勁貢獻。我們中間市場部門的保費增加了近 7%，財產保險和意外傷害保險增加了 10.7%，金融保險則下降了 5.7%。

Again, the underwriting environment in North America is generally favorable and rational, financial lines aside. Pricing for property and casualty excluding financial lines and workers comp, was up 9.9%, with rates up 8% and exposure change of 1.8% -- again, with both rates and pricing up from second quarter. Financial lines pricing was down 3.2%, with rates down about 3.4%. In workers comp, which includes both primary and large account risk management, pricing was up 4.2%, with rates up 1.4% and exposure up 2.8%.

同樣，除了財務狀況外，北美的承保環境總體上是有利且理性的。不包括金融險種和工人補償在內的財產和傷亡險定價上漲 9.9%，利率上漲 8%，風險敞口變化 1.8%——同樣，利率和定價均較第二季度有所上漲。金融線路定價下降 3.2%，利率下降約 3.4%。在工人補償中，包括主要和大帳戶風險管理，定價上漲 4.2%，利率上漲 1.4%，風險敞口上漲 2.8%。

Breaking down P&C pricing further, property pricing was up 6.7%, with rate of 3.7% and exposure change of 2.9%. Casualty pricing in North America was up 12.7%, well in excess of loss costs, with rates up 11.9% and exposure 0.7%. Our loss costs in North America, again, remained stable - no change - and in line with what we contemplate in our loss picks.

進一步細分財產險和意外險定價，房地產定價上漲 6.7%，漲幅為 3.7%，風險敞口變動為 2.9%。北美的傷亡定價上漲了 12.7%，遠高於損失成本，費率上漲 11.9%，風險敞口上漲 0.7%。我們在北美的損失成本再次保持穩定——沒有變化——並且與我們在損失選擇中的預期一致。

In Agriculture, where we are the market leader, we gained increased market share and wrote more policies insuring more farmers and fields, though premiums were down from prior year primarily due to lower commodity prices than last year. Commodity prices are used to price the premiums we charge farmers. Far more importantly, our crop underwriting results this quarter were excellent, and from everything we know now, '24 is shaping up to be a very good underwriting year.

在農業領域，我們是市場領導者，我們獲得了更大的市場份額，並製定了更多保單，為更多農民和農地提供保險，儘管保費較上年有所下降，主要是由於大宗商品價格低於去年。商品價格用於定價我們向農民收取的保費。更重要的是，本季我們的農作物承保業績非常出色，從我們現在所知的一切來看，24 年將是非常好的承保一年。

On the consumer side of North America, our high-net-worth personal lines business had another outstanding quarter with premium growth of 10% including new business growth exceeding 25%. Premium growth for our true high-net-worth segments, the group that seeks our brand for the differentiated coverage and service we're known for, was 16.8%. Our homeowners pricing was up 13.7% in the quarter and ahead of loss cost trend, which remained steady.

在北美消費者方面，我們的高淨值個人險種業務又一個出色的季度，保費增長10%，其中新業務增長超過25%。我們真正的高淨值群體（該群體尋求我們的品牌以提供我們聞名的差異化覆蓋範圍和服務）的保費增長為 16.8%。本季我們的房主定價上漲了 13.7%，領先於維持穩定的損失成本趨勢。

Turning to our international general insurance operations, it was a decent quarter. Net premiums were up 4.9%, or 7.5% in constant dollars. Our international commercial business grew 6.7%, while consumer was up 8.5%. Asia Pacific led the way with premiums up 9.2%. Latin America grew over 7.5%, while Europe grew over 7% with the content of Europe up 8.7%.

談到我們的國際普通保險業務，這是一個不錯的季度。淨保費成長 4.9%，以固定匯率計算成長 7.5%。我們的國際商業業務成長 6.7%，消費業務成長 8.5%。亞太地區以保費上漲 9.2% 領先。拉丁美洲成長超過7.5%，歐洲成長超過7%，其中歐洲成長8.7%。

Premiums at our international retail commercial P&C business grew 6.5% in constant dollars. P&C lines were up almost 11%, and financial lines were down 10%. It is worth noting, adjusting for a one-time premium benefit we received in the third quarter of last year, underlying growth was over 14% in P&C lines internationally with financial lines down 3.8%. We continued to achieve positive rate-to-exposure across our international retail commercial portfolio, with P&C lines pricing up 6.3% and financial lines pricing down 3.5%.

我們的國際零售商業財產保險業務的保費以不變美元計算成長了 6.5%。財產與意外險增加了近 11%，金融險則下降了 10%。值得注意的是，根據去年第三季我們收到的一次性保費福利進行調整後，國際財產險險種的基本成長超過 14%，而金融險種則下降了 3.8%。我們的國際零售商業投資組合持續實現正的風險敞口率，其中財產和意外險價格上漲 6.3%，金融險價格下降 3.5%。

Premiums in our international wholesale business grew about 8% in constant dollars. As is typical, the London wholesale market is growing more competitive and, frankly, for me, is exhibiting classic London underwriter and broker behavior. Generally speaking, underwriting prosperity likely won't endure over time and London will underperform in due course except for those few real underwriters who know how to manage what is simply a trade. I have seen this movie many times.

我們國際批發業務的保費以不變美元計算成長了約 8%。與典型情況一樣，倫敦批發市場的競爭越來越激烈，坦白說，對我來說，正在表現出經典的倫敦承銷商和經紀人行為。一般來說，承保繁榮可能不會隨著時間的推移而持續，倫敦的表現將在適當的時候表現不佳，除了少數真正知道如何管理交易的承銷商。這部電影我看過很多次了。

Our international personal lines business had an excellent quarter, with growth of 12.7%, led by Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Our global reinsurance business had a strong quarter. Premiums were up about 35%. We had a combined ratio of 94.4%, which included a more active cat loss quarter. Again, in our international Life insurance business, which is fundamentally Asia, premiums and deposits were up about 21% in constant dollars. International Life earnings grew over 9% in the quarter in constant dollars.

我們的國際個人險業務季度表現出色，成長 12.7%，其中亞太地區和拉丁美洲領先。我們的全球再保險業務季度表現強勁。保費上漲約35%。我們的綜合比率為 94.4%，其中包括一個更活躍的貓損失季度。同樣，在我們的國際人壽保險業務（主要是亞洲）中，保費和存款以不變美元計算增長了約 21%。以不變美元計算，國際人壽本季獲利成長超過 9%。

So that's a lot of news. And in summary, we had another excellent quarter and are having a record earnings year. While we're in the risk business and volatility is a natural feature, we are very confident in our ability to continue growing our operating earnings and EPS at a superior rate through P&C revenue growth and underwriting margins, investment income, and life income.

所以這是很多新聞。總而言之，我們又度過了一個出色的季度，並迎來了創紀錄的盈利年度。雖然我們從事風險業務，波動性是一個自然特徵，但我們非常有信心能夠透過財產險收入和承保利潤、投資收入和壽險收入繼續以優異的速度增長我們的營業收入和每股收益。

I'm going to turn the call over to Peter, and then we're going to come back and take your questions.

我會把電話轉給彼得，然後我們會回來回答你的問題。

Good morning. As you have just heard from Evan, despite an elevated level of industrywide Cats, we had another strong quarter that generated adjusted operating cash flow for the quarter and through nine months of $4.6 billion and a record $11.7 billion, respectively. Our results further strengthened our overall financial position, ending the quarter with all-time highs in book value of nearly $66 billion and invested assets of $151 billion.

早安.正如您剛剛從埃文那裡聽到的那樣，儘管全行業的Cats 水平有所提高，但我們還是經歷了另一個強勁的季度，該季度和前九個月的調整後運營現金流分別達到46 億美元和創紀錄的117 億美元。我們的業績進一步增強了我們的整體財務狀況，本季末帳面價值創歷史新高，接近 660 億美元，投資資產達 1,510 億美元。

On July 31, we issued $700 million of five-year debt and $600 million of 10-year debt at an attractive weighted average cost of under 5%. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including a repayment of $700 million of euro-denominated debt due in December. We returned $782 million of capital to shareholders this quarter, including $413 million in share repurchases and $369 million in dividends, and $2.4 billion in total through nine months.

7 月 31 日，我們以低於 5% 的有吸引力的加權平均成本發行了 7 億美元的五年期債務和 6 億美元的 10 年期債務。所得款項將用於一般公司用途，包括償還 12 月到期的 7 億美元歐元債務。本季我們向股東返還了 7.82 億美元的資本，其中包括 4.13 億美元的股票回購和 3.69 億美元的股息，九個月內總共返還了 24 億美元。

Book and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI increased 2.7% and 4.3%, respectively, for the quarter, and 7.7% and 10.6%, respectively, year-to-date, benefiting from core operating income partially offset by the capital returned to shareholders. Core operating ROE and return on tangible equity was 13.6% and a record 21.5%, respectively, year-to-date.

扣除 AOCI 後，每股帳面價值和有形帳面價值本季分別成長 2.7% 和 4.3%，年初至今分別成長 7.7% 和 10.6%，受益於核心營業收入返還給股東的資本部分抵銷。年初至今，核心營運股本回報率和有形股本回報率分別為 13.6% 和創紀錄的 21.5%。

Turning to investments, our A-rated portfolio produced adjusted net investment income of $1.64 billion, which included approximately $40 million of higher-than-normal income from private equity.

談到投資，我們的 A 級投資組合產生了 16.4 億美元的調整後淨投資收入，其中包括約 4,000 萬美元高於正常水準的私募股權收入。

Regarding underwriting results, the quarter included pretax catastrophe losses of $765 million, of which $250 million was related to Hurricane Helene, and the balance principally from weather-related events, split 70% in the US and 30% internationally.

關於承保業績，該季度包括 7.65 億美元的稅前巨災損失，其中 2.5 億美元與颶風海倫有關，餘額主要來自與天氣相關的事件，美國佔 70%，國際佔 30%。

Prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was a favorable $299 million pre-tax, with favorable development of $358 million in short-tail lines, primarily from property, and $59 million of unfavorable development in long-tail lines, which was primarily from general casualty. Our corporate run-off portfolio had adverse development of $55 million, primarily environmental liability related. Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter and the year was 77%.

我們活躍公司本季前期的有利發展為稅前 2.99 億美元，其中短尾產品線的有利發展為 3.58 億美元，主要來自房地產，而長尾產品線的不利發展為 5,900 萬美元，主要來自房地產。來自一般傷亡。我們的企業徑流投資組合出現了 5,500 萬美元的不利發展，主要與環境責任有關。本季和全年的付費與發生比率為 77%。

Our core effective tax rate was 17.7% for the quarter which is below our previously guided range due to shifts in the mix of income as well as certain discrete tax benefits recorded in the quarter. We expect our fourth quarter core effective tax rate to now be between 19% and 19.25% with the full year between 18% and 18.25%. We expect to provide guidance on the 2025 tax rate as part of our fourth quarter earnings at the end of January.

由於收入結構的變化以及本季記錄的某些離散稅收優惠，我們本季的核心有效稅率為 17.7%，低於我們先前的指導範圍。我們預計第四季核心有效稅率目前在 19% 至 19.25% 之間，全年核心有效稅率在 18% 至 18.25% 之間。我們預計將在 1 月底的第四季收益中提供 2025 年稅率指引。

I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.

我現在將把電話轉回給凱倫。

Thank you. And at this point, we're happy to take your questions.

謝謝。此時此刻，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）Bob Huang，摩根士丹利。

First question is on the North America Commercial. I think if we -- like you said before, right, pricing ex financial lines, ex workers' comp continue to be very strong over the last few quarters. And you had really incredible margins in this business. Just given the pricing and the growth, should we expect growth to accelerate from here? Or how should we think about growth in this business ex financial lines, ex workers' comp going forward?

第一個問題是關於北美商業的。我認為，如果我們——就像你之前說的那樣，按財務線定價，前工人的薪酬在過去幾個季度繼續保持強勁。你在這個行業中獲得了令人難以置信的利潤。考慮到定價和成長，我們是否應該預期成長會從現在開始加速？或者我們應該如何考慮該業務的成長（除財務線和工人報酬之外）？

Yes. First of all, I don't -- we don't give forward guidance, as you know. So, I'm not going to answer that in a specific way. You see the amount of new business we write. You see our retention rate. You see we're in a healthy market. And we're in an underwriter's market. Risk selection, structure of risk, how you structure it, and pricing matter. All underwriters aren't created equal. So we compete for business. And some areas of business have become more competitive, naturally, speaking to property.

是的。首先，正如你所知，我們不提供前瞻性指導。所以，我不會以具體的方式來回答這個問題。您可以看到我們撰寫的新業務量。您會看到我們的保留率。你看，我們處於一個健康的市場。我們正處於承銷商市場。風險選擇、風險結構、如何建構風險以及定價都很重要。並非所有承保人都是平等的。所以我們為了生意而競爭。就房地產而言，某些業務領域的競爭自然變得更加激烈。

I'm confident when I look forward at Chubb's ability to continue to grow above trend when I look at longer-term trends, as I look forward over a period of time. And I'll leave it at that.

當我展望長期趨勢時，當我期待安達有能力繼續高於趨勢成長時，我充滿信心，就像我展望一段時間一樣。我就這樣吧。

Great. Thank you. Second question is on the international business. Apologies in advance if I misinterpreted your commentary, but it sounded like what you're saying is that in London there could be more competition. Does that imply that a lot of the international growth going forward will be driven by Asia and elsewhere? If that is the case, does the upcoming election potentially have an impact on the growth in that area?

偉大的。謝謝。第二個問題是關於國際業務。如果我誤解了您的評論，請提前道歉，但聽起來您的意思是在倫敦可能會有更多競爭。這是否意味著未來國際成長的大部分將由亞洲和其他地區推動？如果是這樣，即將舉行的選舉是否可能對該地區的成長產生影響？

Well, first of all, our London wholesale business proportionately is not the overwhelming part of our international business. It's about 10%. And so put that in perspective, 90% is our global retail international. Europe grew 8.5%, Latin America, grew 7.5%. Asia grew in the 9%s. So it's that vast territory.

嗯，首先，我們的倫敦批發業務按比例來說並不是我們國際業務的壓倒性部分。大約是10%。因此，從長遠來看，90% 是我們的全球零售國際。歐洲成長8.5%，拉丁美洲成長7.5%。亞洲成長了 9%。所以這就是廣闊的領土。

And then the UK itself grows well, and then -- which is UK retail, which is a big business. And then you have the London wholesale market, where business comes to London to get placed. And that's what my comment was referring to, the classic London market competition that I just thought I would call out because you start to see the behavior that is classic of London.

然後英國本身成長良好，然後是英國零售業，這是一門大生意。然後是倫敦批發市場，業務來到倫敦落腳。這就是我的評論所指的，經典的倫敦市場競爭，我只是想我會指出這一點，因為你開始看到倫敦經典的行為。

The election, I'm not sure how you linked it to the election and the election outcome. You'd have to enlighten me. But does that help you?

選舉，我不確定你如何將其與選舉和選舉結果聯繫起來。你必須啟發我。但這對你有幫助嗎？

No, no, I think it does. Really appreciate the UK comments there. Thank you.

不，不，我認為是這樣。非常感謝英國的評論。謝謝。

You got it. I feel good about our international growth capabilities.

你明白了。我對我們的國際成長能力感到滿意。

Brian Meredith, UBS Financial.

布萊恩‧梅瑞迪斯 (Brian Meredith)，瑞銀金融集團。

Evan, just curious, given the hurricane activity we've seen and the elevated, call it, cat losses, what are you seeing in the property lines right now? And what's your expectations as we go into 1/1 renewals, both on the primary and reinsurance side?

埃文，只是好奇，考慮到我們所看到的颶風活動和升高的貓損失，您現在在財產線中看到了什麼？當我們進行 1/1 續保時，您對主保險和再保險有何期望？

Yes. On the primary side, in the middle market, small commercial, which is really the vast majority of business in insurance in North America, overall, when you look at the industry, pricing remains firm, and prices continue to go up. And it's both hurricane and active SCS activity, modeled, nonmodeled loss. And the market needs the price, and it continues to move in that direction.

是的。在初級方面，在中間市場，小型商業，這實際上是北美保險業的絕大多數業務，總體而言，當你看這個行業時，定價仍然堅挺，價格繼續上漲。這既是颶風，也是活躍的南海活動，模擬的和非模擬的損失。市場需要價格，而且它繼續朝這個方向移動。

When you get to shared and layered, particularly whether it's large account or it's E&S related, that's where there is more -- the business is well priced, but there is rate pressure. Rates are coming down, though they remain at good levels, and because there's more capital that's entered the market, more competition. And again, in particular, I call out London behavior that is almost aberrant relative to everybody else. But it remains a robust market.

當你談到共享和分層時，特別是無論是大客戶還是與 E&S 相關的，這就是更多的地方——業務定價合理，但存在利率壓力。儘管利率仍處於良好水平，但利率仍在下降，而且由於進入市場的資本增多，競爭也更加激烈。我再次特別指出，倫敦的行為與其他人相比幾乎是反常的。但它仍然是一個強勁的市場。

Great. Thank you. And my second question, Peter, you mentioned there was $59 million of, call it, general casualty adverse development in North America. What accident years was that coming from? And then maybe break it down a little more, was it GL, commercial auto? What's driving some of that development?

偉大的。謝謝。我的第二個問題，彼得，你提到北美的一般傷亡損失高達 5,900 萬美元。那是哪幾年發生的意外？然後也許再細分一下，是 GL，商用車嗎？是什麼推動了這種發展？

Yes. It was '19 to '22 years and it was in the general casualty areas. The negative -- look, we do a lot of studies in the third quarter of casualty in the US. And it was -- there were puts and calls so that you really have a clearer view of it. There were a number of long-tail classes in the quarter that had positive results.

是的。那是19年到22年，屬於一般傷亡地區。負面的——看，我們對美國第三季的傷亡情況做了很多研究。確實有看跌期權和看漲期權，這樣你就可以真正更清楚地了解它。本季有許多長尾課程取得了積極的成果。

And then there was, in particular, excess casualty that produced a negative result. So it's kind of a mixed bag. It's not all in one direction. And that is what all added up to the North America casualty reserve charge, which was modest.

然後，特別是傷亡過多，產生了負面結果。所以這是一個魚龍混雜的情況。一切並非都朝一個方向發展。這就是北美傷亡準備金的全部費用，金額不大。

Thank you. Appreciate it.

謝謝。欣賞它。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Evan, I think over the last several quarters, you guys had called out some troubled classes in North America commercial that you guys were reworking. I think it was a $50 million drag last quarter. I know there was also some of that in 4Q '23. Is that largely behind you at this point, aside from just sort of the normal course managing the book where we should see continued acceleration in some of those commercial casualty lines?

埃文，我認為在過去的幾個季度裡，你們在北美廣告中指出了一些你們正在重新製作的有問題的課程。我認為上個季度拖累了 5000 萬美元。我知道 23 年第四季也有一些這樣的情況。在這一點上，除了管理這本書的正常過程之外，您是否已經在很大程度上接受了這一點，我們應該看到其中一些商業傷亡線的持續加速？

We have another quarter or two to go before we finish. We began fourth quarter last year, in most of it, we have a part of it that we began really in the first quarter, so we have -- we had about another $50 million or so this quarter, and it will continue into fourth and a little bit into first. But in the grand scheme of the total premiums we write, it's just not that significant.

在我們完成之前，我們還有一兩個季度的時間。我們從去年第四季開始，其中大部分是從第一季開始的，所以我們本季還有大約 5000 萬美元左右，並將持續到第四季和第四季。但在我們承保的總保費的宏偉計劃中，它並沒有那麼重要。

And remember, it's not -- it's a combination of whether some business moves to others who just don't get it. But a lot of it is due to how we change terms and attachment points, and we eliminate dollar swapping. This is a Large Account-related comment. And then, of course, the excess areas are getting a lot of rate that helped to ameliorate. So maybe that helps you with it.

請記住，這不是——這是一些業務是否轉移到其他不了解它的業務的綜合因素。但這很大程度上是由於我們如何改變條款和附著點，以及我們消除了美元互換。這是與大帳戶相關的評論。當然，過剩地區的利率也大幅提高，有助於改善。所以也許這對你有幫助。

Yeah, no, thanks. That's helpful.

是的，不，謝謝。這很有幫助。

And when you look at the broad nature of our business, I mean let's just keep a perspective. We write $20-some-odd billion of net premiums in North America. Personal lines is about $7 billion of that. So all the rest is commercial, massive. Number two middle market player, a large E&S player, a major agricultural writer, large Major Account writer. And so, when you start hearing numbers like -- that we're talking about this area in large account casualty, well, it's not unimportant relative to the business, but keep perspective, it's small.

當你審視我們業務的廣泛性質時，我的意思是讓我們保持一個視角。我們在北美承保了 20 多億美元的淨保費。其中個人額度約 70 億美元。所以剩下的都是商業化的、大規模的。第二大中間市場參與者、大型 E&S 參與者、主要農業作家、大型大客戶作家。因此，當你開始聽到這樣的數字時——我們正在談論這個領域的大客戶傷亡，嗯，相對於業務而言，這並不不重要，但保持觀點，它很小。

Right, no, that's fair. And I see the rate is also accelerating there in casualty, so that's good to see as well. Maybe just moving on the property side, the catastrophe losses over the last several years and in the third quarter, this third quarter, were definitely surprisingly low, just given the mix shift to property that you guys have had over the last several years.

是的，不，這很公平。我發現那裡的傷亡率也在加快，所以這也是一件好事。也許只是在房地產方面，過去幾年和第三季的災難性損失絕對低得驚人，考慮到你們過去幾年向房地產的混合轉移。

I guess I'm wondering if just from your perspective, is this third quarter sort of in line with sort of a normal third quarter that you would expect? And I guess as you think about the mix of property and casualty business, is this sort of -- are you still comfortable shifting more to property? Or is that something where, just given the market dynamics, it should stabilize at this point?

我想我想知道，僅從您的角度來看，第三季是否符合您預期的正常第三季？我想，當您考慮財產和意外傷害業務的組合時，您是否仍然願意將更多資金轉向財產？或者說，考慮到市場動態，它應該在此時穩定下來嗎？

Yeah, the cat losses were a bit lower in the quarter than we would have modeled, than our modeling that we contemplated pricing would have produced, so in our annual expected. That to me is just loss volatility. We're in a business that -- in a risk business, and there's volatility. And there's two sides to the volatility. There is a favorable side and an unfavorable side, because your average expected loss that you divide into four quarters is just an average. It's just that. And it contemplates all return periods in the loss and in the pricing. So that makes sense to me that I'd see -- you're not going to hit the number, you're either up or down from that. Number one.

是的，本季的貓損失比我們建模的要低一些，比我們考慮定價的模型產生的要低一些，所以在我們的年度預期中。對我來說這只是損失波動。我們所處的行業是一個充滿風險的行業，而且存在波動。波動有兩個面向。有有利的一面和不利的一面，因為您劃分為四個季度的平均預期損失只是平均值。就是這樣。它還考慮了損失和定價中的所有回報期。所以這對我來說是有道理的——你不會達到這個數字，你要么向上，要么向下。第一。

Number two, we have we have a lot of capital flexibility. I think we're good underwriters of the business. So our risk selection and portfolio construction and ensuring we have good pricing, I think, contributes to Chubb's overall results in a major way versus the industry.

第二，我們有很大的資本彈性。我認為我們是該業務的優秀承銷商。因此，我認為，與行業相比，我們的風險選擇和投資組合構建以及確保我們擁有良好的定價對安達的整體業績做出了重大貢獻。

And we're going to write the business, whether it is property or casualty. We have an appetite for the volatility. We are going to write the business, wherever it is. If we understand it, we can price it, structure it, and assume.

我們將記錄業務，無論是財產還是傷亡。我們對波動性有興趣。我們要寫業務，無論它在哪裡。如果我們理解它，我們就可以給它定價、建構它並進行假設。

And so we're going to -- we're continuing to lean into property, we're continuing to lean into cat and personal lines and all other areas where we see there is growth potential. And frankly, the most frustrating thing inside our own organization, we can't get after opportunity fast enough and execute efficiently enough for our own appetite and expectations.

因此，我們將繼續專注於房地產、貓和個人產品以及我們認為有成長潛力的所有其他領域。坦白說，在我們自己的組織內部最令人沮喪的事情是，我們無法足夠快地抓住機會並足夠有效地執行以滿足我們自己的胃口和期望。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

亞倫·基納爾，傑弗里斯。

And maybe just continuing on the previous questions. So when we look at North America casualty, it is where you're getting the most rate, I think, based on the data I quickly tried to jot down, and definitely exceeding loss trend. But that's also where the exposure growth has been less pronounced. I'm guessing that's because of the work you're doing on fixing the troubled classes that you referenced. So without asking for guidance here, but just based on the data, is it fair to think of a growing appetite for casualty coming through in results as the troubled lines are fixed?

也許只是繼續之前的問題。因此，當我們觀察北美傷亡時，我認為，根據我快速記下的數據，這是傷亡率最高的地方，絕對超過了損失趨勢。但這也是曝光成長不太明顯的地方。我猜這是因為您正在修復您引用的有問題的類別。因此，在不尋求指導的情況下，僅根據數據，認為隨著問題線得到修復，傷亡人數的增加會增加，這公平嗎？

I don't know where you're getting that picture, but I can tell you that our casualty lines are actually growing quickly. And I'm not going to give you a breakdown, but our casualty lines are actually growing quickly. And in North America, in the areas where we see decent pricing, and I don't see much of an overhang of -- $50 billion hardly much of an overhang. So I can't agree with you, your line of logic, and I have to leave you to think your own thoughts.

我不知道你從哪裡得到這張照片，但我可以告訴你，我們的傷亡人數實際上正在迅速增加。我不會向您提供詳細信息，但我們的傷亡人數實際上正在快速增長。在北美，在我們看到價格合理的地區，我沒有看到太多的懸而未決——500 億美元幾乎沒有懸而未決。所以我不能同意你的邏輯，我只好讓你自己思考。

I'm just referencing the exposure growth of 70 basis points you called out in casualty pricing in North America.

我只是參考您在北美傷亡定價中提到的 70 個基點的風險敞口增長。

No, that's -- you're missing it. That's not growth in premium. That's -- okay, I have a store. My store sold more goods this year than last year. It sold 1% more in goods. My theater sold 1% more tickets than last year. That's exposure growth and we rate off of that. That's how you get to price.

不，那是——你錯過了。這不是保費的成長。那是——好吧，我有一家商店。我的商店今年售出的商品比去年多。商品銷量增加了 1%。我的劇院售出的門票比去年多了 1%。這就是曝光增長，我們對此進行評級。這就是你如何定價。

You're confusing price and rate with growth in premium, two different things. My unit growth of number of customers I wrote is totally different. Yaron, you got to go just learn those basics. Sorry.

您將價格和費率與保費增長混淆了，這是兩個不同的東西。我寫的客戶數量的單位增長是完全不同的。Yaron，你必須去學習這些基礎。對不起。

All right. And then in the London behavior that you've referenced, is that -- the competitive nature true in both casualty and property?

好的。那麼，在您提到的倫敦行為中，傷亡和財產方面的競爭本質是否真實？

Yeah, across the board.

是的，全面。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Evan, for my first question, I want to go back to your comments around the Life Insurance business. As you pointed out, you rarely give forward guidance, so this is somewhat of a departure. And looking at some of the statistics, with the growth in constant dollars and the growth in deposit assets, just curious why we're not seeing that translate to more income growth. Is there something going on inside there other than currency? Or just some clarification on that would be helpful.

埃文，對於我的第一個問題，我想回到您對人壽保險業務的評論。正如您所指出的，您很少提供前瞻性指導，因此這有點背離。看看一些統計數據，隨著不變美元的成長和存款資產的成長，我們只是好奇為什麼我們沒有看到這轉化為更多的收入成長。除了貨幣之外，裡面還有什麼東西在發生嗎？或者只是對此進行一些澄清會有所幫助。

It's Peter, Greg. The top-line growth on total Life and on international, as you know and was said, was around 10%. The income growth in international was just over 9%, so pretty much tracking. The Combined Insurance business in the last half of last year, I called out in the fourth quarterly earnings call, had a bit of a nonrecurring or oversized item. So if you back that out, the growth rate would be relatively consistent for all of Life with international.

是彼得，格雷格。如你所知，也有人說過，總壽險和國際業務的收入成長約為 10%。國際營收成長略高於 9%，基本保持穩定。我在第四季財報電話會議上指出，去年下半年的聯合保險業務有一些非經常性或規模過大的項目。因此，如果你反駁這一點，那麼所有生命的成長率將與國際相對一致。

Great. Thanks for the reminder on that. I appreciate that. The second question I had was on capital. Noted your comments around dividends and share repurchase in the third quarter. The results of your company are outstanding. The free cash flow was really strong. Curious if you have any changed view on share repurchase versus special dividends as the stock price appreciates, or given the results, if there's any change on your views on capital management.

偉大的。謝謝你的提醒。我很欣賞這一點。我的第二個問題是關於資本。注意到您對第三季股息和股票回購的評論。貴公司的業績非常出色。自由現金流非常強勁。好奇隨著股價的上漲，您對股票回購與特別股息的看法是否有任何變化，或者考慮到結果，您對資本管理的看法是否有任何變化。

No. It's steady as she goes. We're returning a healthy amount of capital to shareholders and the balance of capital that we hold we can put to work at good risk-adjusted returns that well exceed our cost of capital, and we're -- that's the balance.

不。她走的時候很穩定。我們正在向股東返還大量資本，我們持有的資本餘額可以用於獲得良好的風險調整回報，遠遠超過我們的資本成本，這就是餘額。

Fair enough. Thanks for your time.

很公平。感謝您抽出時間。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Ryan Tunis, Autonomous Research.

Ryan Tunis，自主研究。

So Evan, I guess, on your comments about competition in London wholesale, typical behavior there. I guess my concern, maybe you can talk me off the ledge on this a bit, but to me, that market is -- London wholesale is pretty intertwined. And with your commentary like that, I start wondering a little bit about like what might be coming next. I mean is that a fair concern? Or when you say that, are you really just honing in on just strictly London?

所以埃文，我想，關於你對倫敦批發競爭的評論，這是那裡的典型行為。我想我擔心的是，也許你可以讓我擺脫這個問題，但對我來說，倫敦批發市場是非常交織在一起的。有了你這樣的評論，我開始想知道接下來會發生什麼。我的意思是，這是合理的擔憂嗎？或者當你這麼說時，你真的只是在專注於倫敦嗎？

No, I think it's -- I'm saying it particularly about London. And look, the business in London overall, the market is profitable. But my real point was the kind of behavior I'm seeing them exhibit, the way they're trying to attract more capital to a finite amount of business, the behavior of the capital as I look at it and the guises that it's in, it just sets the table for the same movie I've watched that will occur over a number of years, many times, and they just can't ultimately stand prosperity. And so I'm just calling it out because I'm seeing it, or I'm seeing it begin, and it is peculiar in particular to the London.

不，我認為這是——我是特別針對倫敦說的。從整體來看，倫敦市場的業務是有利可圖的。但我真正的觀點是我看到他們表現出的行為，他們試圖為有限的業務吸引更多資本的方式，我所看到的資本的行為以及它的偽裝，它只是為我看過的同一部電影奠定了基礎，這部電影將在很多年裡發生很多次，而他們最終無法忍受繁榮。所以我只是喊出來，因為我正在看到它，或者我正在看到它開始，而且這是倫敦特有的。

Got it. And then I guess just a follow-up, thinking about international Life, so it took more than a decade to get to $1 billion of premium. Any suggestion you want to give us on how long it's going to take to get the next $1 billion of operating earnings there?

知道了。然後我想這只是後續行動，考慮國際人壽，所以花了十多年才達到 10 億美元的保費。對於需要多長時間才能實現下一個 10 億美元的營業收入，您有什麼建議嗎？

In Life?

在生活中？

Yeah.

是的。

In international? I think it's Life. But did you say international Life, Ryan?

在國際？我想這就是生活。但你說的是國際生活嗎，瑞安？

I did, yes.

我做到了，是的。

Yeah. Stay tuned, buddy, it is not going to take a decade.

是的。請繼續關注，夥計，這不會需要十年的時間。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

First one I had for you is just on the casualty pricing dynamics we're seeing in the market. I mean on one hand, we're seeing some unfavorable here or there in some of these specific product lines like excess liability and so forth. But overall, profitability seems pretty good when we look at overall ROEs across many of these businesses. And I just wanted to get your thoughts on price adequacy in general across some of those casualty lines. And how much need is there for the industry, in your view, to keep pushing price in casualty?

我為您提供的第一個內容是關於我們在市場上看到的傷亡定價動態。我的意思是，一方面，我們在某些​​特定產品線中看到了一些不利因素，例如超額責任等。但總體而言，當我們考慮其中許多業務的整體股本回報率時，獲利能力似乎相當不錯。我只是想了解您對某些傷亡險種總體價格充足性的看法。您認為該行業有多大必要繼續推高傷亡價格？

Yes. There is no general statement. It varies by area of casualty, by customer cohort, by geography. There is no simple, and that's why it's always an underwriter's market. And you got to have the data, you got to have the experience, and then you got to have the command and control to actually put it to work. And you got to have the analytics and actuarial to back it up. So there is no general statement that could put casualty, which is a massive class of insurance, in a neat box and on a bumper sticker.

是的。沒有一般性的說法。它因傷亡地區、客戶群和地理位置而異。這並不簡單，這就是為什麼它始終是承銷商市場。你必須擁有數據，你必須擁有經驗，然後你必須擁有命令和控制才能真正發揮作用。你必須有分析和精算來支持它。因此，沒有任何通用聲明可以將傷亡保險（這是一個很大的類別）放在一個整潔的盒子裡並貼在保險桿貼紙上。

Understood. And sorry for the more broad-based question, it's just something I grapple with looking at the specific products versus like the overall profitability of companies.

明白了。對於更廣泛的問題感到抱歉，這只是我努力關注特定產品與公司整體盈利能力的問題。

Honestly, I'd give -- I'd help you out and give it to you.

老實說，我會幫助你並把它給你。

Understood. Next one I have is just on the asset base, I guess, as we're seeing, I guess lower paid claims relative to incurred, sort of an elongation of the claims cycle in casualty, we're seeing asset bases kind of grow more than they otherwise would, which the good part about that is you get more net investment income potentially. I mean, how should we think about the growth in the asset base?

明白了。我的下一個只是關於資產基礎，我想，正如我們所看到的，我想相對於已發生的索賠而言，支付的索賠較低，傷亡索賠週期的延長，我們看到資產基礎增長得更多與其他情況相比，這樣做的好處是您可能獲得更多的投資淨收入。我的意思是，我們該如何看待資產基礎的成長？

I think you just said something that you're going to have to think about how you connected those dots. You just said elongated payout pattern, and I don't relate to an elongated payout pattern. I do relate to strength of reserves, that all things being equal paid-to-incurred can point to. And I do understand growth in business and in longer-tail areas and mix in that regard. But I don't relate to a notion of elongated payout pattern, generally speaking. And I don't know, I got the data, at least when it comes to Chubb.

我認為你剛才說了一些你必須思考如何將這些點連結起來的事情。您剛才提到了延長的支付模式，而我與延長的支付模式無關。我確實與儲備實力有關，所有支付與發生相等的事情都可以表明這一點。我確實了解業務和長尾領域的成長以及這方面的混合。但一般來說，我不認同延長支付模式的概念。我不知道，我得到了數據，至少是關於 Chubb 的數據。

Can I -- I mean the invested asset base growing at a pretty strong clip. I mean what was the underlying driver for that?

我可以——我的意思是投資資產基礎以相當強勁的速度成長。我的意思是，其根本驅動因素是什麼？

Our business has been growing, and our margins have been good. And so our invested asset base, yes, continues to grow, and our capital has been growing. That invested asset is a source of income and superior returns on a risk adjusted, well in excess of cost of capital. So that is a source of strength for the company. And we will continue to grow the invested asset on purpose. And we will continue to focus on returns within that portfolio as a good asset allocator would, which is my earlier comments about us as an asset manager. We're a manager of capital, claim reserves, that's third party. And that will continue to grow.

我們的業務一直在成長，利潤率也很高。因此，我們的投資資產基礎持續成長，我們的資本也一直在成長。此投資資產是收入來源和風險調整後的超額回報，遠遠超過資本成本。所以這是公司的力量來源。我們將繼續有目的地增加投資資產。我們將像優秀的資產配置者一樣繼續關注該投資組合的回報，這是我之前對我們作為資產管理者的評論。我們是資本、索賠準備金的管理者，這是第三方。而且這數字還會持續成長。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼，TD·考恩。

You're thinking about the Financial Lines where premium was down 6.2%. And I think you highlighted rate off low single digit. But you still generated about $1.25 billion of premium. So I'm wondering how much of that was D&O? Can you still make money in D&O? And just how are you thinking about the outlook there?

您想到的是金融險種，保費下降了 6.2%。我認為你強調了低個位數的利率。但您仍然產生了約 12.5 億美元的溢價。所以我想知道其中有多少是 D&O 的？D&O還能賺錢嗎？您如何看待那裡的前景？

I'm not going to give you a breakdown of how much was D&O, that's proprietary. But I am -- what I will tell you is we're not writing the business if we can't make money. And we have a very large installed customer base. We have a long, storied reputation in D&O and financial lines. We're a major brand in it. And when they're looking for someone to write their primary, that is manage their risk, more often than not, they want Chubb on that. And the competition then is more in the excess layers. And yes, we're writing D&O because, where we are, we're making.

我不會向您詳細說明 D&O 的金額，這是專有的。但我要告訴你的是，如果我們賺不到錢，我們就不會寫這項業務。我們擁有非常龐大的安裝客戶群。我們在 D&O 和財務領域享有悠久的聲譽。我們是其中一個主要的品牌。當他們尋找某人來撰寫他們的初稿時，那就是管理他們的風險，通常，他們希望 Chubb 來幫助他們。競爭更集中在多餘的層。是的，我們正在寫《D&O》，因為我們在哪裡，我們就在創作。

That makes a lot of sense. And then just maybe to kind of follow on that London movie commentary that you gave. You're doing such exceptional underlying combined, 80.8% in North America, 84.8% in overseas. Evan, could you see an environment where it just gets more competitive globally, and these excellent -- these exceptional combines maybe erode a little bit. You still do great, but it's five years into the hard market already, didn't we see that loss ratio --

這很有意義。然後也許只是跟進您發表的倫敦電影評論。你們所做的基礎資產組合如此出色，80.8% 在北美，84.8% 在海外。埃文，你能否看到一個在全球範圍內變得更具競爭力的環境，而這些優秀的——這些特殊的組合可能會受到一點侵蝕。你仍然做得很好，但進入硬市場已經五年了，我們沒有看到損失率嗎--

Here's what you're missing. You're looking at it on an ex-cat basis when everyone is cat levered. Look at published combined ratios. That's what tells you. You can't chuck out the losses and leave the premium in the denominator. I reject that discussion because that's just not understanding risk. And so -- and that's what those ex-cat look like.

這就是你所缺少的。當每個人都被貓槓桿化時，你會從一個貓的角度來看它。查看公佈的綜合比率。這就是告訴你的。你不能剔除損失而將保費留在分母中。我拒絕這種討論，因為這不理解風險。所以——這就是那些前貓的樣子。

And then ask yourself in -- and you have to do the work, but when you look at various companies, you look at various markets, you got to understand how much is cat levered, how much is not cat levered to get a real feel of the health. And then that's why I continue to say published combined ratio is your most important indicator. And then after that, a secondary indicator, all things being equal, is ex-cat. It tells you some things, but don't overread it.

然後問自己——你必須做這項工作，但是當你觀察不同的公司，觀察不同的市場時，你必須了解有多少是貓槓桿，多少不是貓槓桿，才能獲得真實的感覺的健康。這就是為什麼我繼續說公佈的綜合比率是最重要的指標。然後，在所有條件相同的情況下，第二個指標是前貓。它告訴你一些事情，但不要過度解讀。

So what I'm reading -- right, so what I should just simply read in is that the combined on an absolute basis are still very high for the industry and the outlook is good for Chubb?

所以我讀到的——對，所以我應該簡單地讀到的是，該行業的絕對基礎上的合併仍然非常高，而 Chubb 的前景良好？

They're good. They're delivering good returns for the industry overall. And it varies by company. Some companies, it's delivering good returns, some it's not. They're decent. There's not a lot of room to move, if you're thinking about pricing adequacy. It's not like industry ROEs are off the charts. They're decent. They're good on a risk-adjusted basis.

他們很好。他們為整個行業帶來了良好的回報。而且因公司而異。有些公司提供了良好的回報，有些則不然。他們很體面。如果你考慮定價是否充足，那麼移動的空間並不大。產業股本回報率並不是破紀錄的。他們很體面。在風險調整的基礎上，它們表現良好。

And then loss trend is relentless. Every year, you have loss trend. So you can't just stand still just to stay where you are. You've got to get rate or price.

然後虧損趨勢是無情的。每年都有虧損趨勢。所以你不能只是站在原地不動。您必須獲得費率或價格。

Makes a lot of sense.

很有道理。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

My first question, you guys said, right, there was $59 million of, I guess, strengthening on long-tail reserves. I know in response to an earlier question, there were some pushes and pulls. Can you guys give us a sense of what was released in workers' comp versus what was added to excess casualty in the quarter?

我的第一個問題，你們說，是的，我猜有 5900 萬美元加強了長尾儲備。我知道在回答之前的問題時，存在一些推動和拉動。你們能否讓我們了解工人補償中釋放的內容與本季額外傷亡人數的增加內容？

No. We've given -- I gave as much color around -- that there was -- in long-tail, there was both positive and negative, and negative was more excess related. And beyond that, we're not giving detail.

不。我們已經給出了——我給了盡可能多的顏色——在長尾中，既有積極的也有消極的，而消極則與過度相關。除此之外，我們不會提供細節。

Okay. And then you guys typically provide an investment income guide. I don't think that was given this quarter. Any color you can provide there, just relative to fourth quarter and forward?

好的。然後你們通常會提供投資收入指南。我認為本季度沒有提供這一點。您可以提供任何與第四季及以後相關的顏色嗎？

Elyse, and last quarter, I gave last six months guidance. So what I would say for the fourth quarter is we will be at the high end of that guidance for the fourth quarter on a recurring basis. Obviously, there's things that are harder to predict, like I spiked out $40 million in the third quarter, that was higher than normal on PE. But I'd say, the high end of the guidance rate level on a recurring basis for the fourth quarter.

Elyse，上個季度，我給了過去六個月的指導。因此，我對第四季度的看法是，我們將經常性地處於第四季度指導的高端。顯然，有些事情更難預測，例如我在第三季賺到了 4000 萬美元，這比 PE 的正常水平要高。但我想說的是，第四季經常性指導利率水準的上限。

And then on tax, you said you would give us, right, next year with Q4. But given just Bermuda tax changes going into effect, just directionally, would that imply you guys would think the tax rate would be higher next year relative to this year's guide?

然後在稅收方面，您說您會在明年第四季向我們提供。但考慮到百慕達稅收改革剛剛生效，只是方向性的，這是否意味著你們會認為明年的稅率會比今年的指導更高？

Elyse, we typically give the full-year guidance in the fourth quarter. That's as far as we go. There is uncertainty, so we're not giving anything more specific right now.

Elyse，我們通常在第四季度給予全年指引。我們就到此為止了。由於存在不確定性，因此我們現在不會提供更具體的資訊。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶·希爾茲，KBW。

If I can go back to the division of pricing to rate and exposure unit. To the extent that more of pricing is coming from rate rather than exposure units, does that have implications for loss ratio progress?

如果我可以回到定價與利率和曝光單位的劃分。如果更多的定價來自利率而不是風險單位，這是否會對損失率的進展產生影響？

Does it what?

是啥事嗎？

Does that have -- if more of pricing comes from rate than exposure units, does that imply a difference in terms of how, when these premiums are earned, the loss ratio will move?

如果更多的定價來自費率而不是風險單位，這是否意味著當賺取這些保費時，損失率將如何變化？

No. No. Not at all. Look, be careful, I didn't say exposure -- maybe we're using different terms. An exposure unit to me would be that I wrote more policies. I took more insureds. That doesn't go into price. We're only talking rate and price times exposure. And so we have rate and then we have a certain kind of exposure, that equals price, and you apply it against units of exposure which is insured.

不。不。一點也不。聽著，小心，我沒有說曝光——也許我們使用了不同的術語。對我來說，一個曝光單位是我寫了更多的政策。我投保了更多的被保險人。這不涉及價格。我們只談論利率和價格乘以曝光。因此，我們有利率，然後我們有某種類型的風險敞口，它等於價格，然後您將其應用於受保的風險敞口單位。

And so the exposure part of price is just like rate, it acts like rate, the portion of it that we count. And that has nothing to do with -- it all earns exactly the same way. But because -- driving the premium, and if it's an annual policy, it's earned one-twelth a month.

因此，價格的暴露部分就像利率一樣，它的作用就像利率，我們計算的部分。這無關緊要——所有的賺錢方式都完全相同。但因為——推動保費，如果是年度保單，每個月可以賺十二分之一。

Okay. No, I was thinking independent. Yeah, I apologize for the terminology issue. Second question though, to the extent that that component of pricing is slowing down, to the extent that that reflects maybe slowing economic growth, does that itself have implications for underwriting profitability?

好的。不，我在思考獨立。是的，我為術語問題道歉。但第二個問題是，定價的這一組成部分正在放緩，反映出經濟成長可能放緩，這本身是否會對承保獲利能力產生影響？

No. Not as we see it, no. Not all things -- and that's a whole different theoretical discussion that depends on the line of business and what we're talking about. So, oh my God, no. If you want to sit and have a gestalt discussion about that sometime, I'll deal with it.

不。不像我們看到的那樣，不。並非所有事情 - 這是一個完全不同的理論討論，取決於業務範圍和我們所討論的內容。所以，天哪，不。如果你想找個時間坐下來進行格式塔討論，我會處理的。

All right. I'll bring the herring.

好的。我會把鯡魚帶來。

(laughter) No, no, only in sour cream sauce.

（笑聲）不，不，只有酸奶油醬。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

邁克·扎倫斯基 (Mike Zaremski)，BMO。

So just kind of back to the casualty competitive marketplace. So casualty pricing accelerated in recent quarters to approximately 12%. And as you state too, that's well above what most companies publicly stated their loss cost assumption. I guess I'm just trying to understand why pricing would be accelerating all the way up to 12%, especially in today's higher interest rate environment, which is good for long-tail lines, if loss costs are indeed well below that number.

回到傷亡競爭市場。因此，近幾季傷亡事故賠付率加速上漲至 12% 左右。正如您所說，這遠高於大多數公司公開表示的損失成本假設。我想我只是想理解為什麼定價會一路加速至 12%，特別是在當今利率較高的環境下，如果損失成本確實遠低於這個數字，這對長尾線路有利。

Yeah, so what I've been clear about, and that you're trying to be too simplistic, there are many cohorts of casualty. The majority, the vast majority of our portfolio, is adequately priced. There are areas where price has had to accelerate to achieve an adequate risk-adjusted return.

是的，所以我已經說得很清楚了，你想得太簡單了，有很多人傷亡。我們的投資組合中的絕大多數，定價都足夠。在某些領域，價格必須加速上漲才能實現足夠的風險調整回報。

It's those -- everyone's book of casualty is different. And our portfolio of casualty has produced these kinds of rate increases, which were made up of just to keep pace with loss costs, where we are adequately priced, and greater levels of rate increase where we're pushing to achieve price adequacy. And it all mixes together, and by the way, what's producing outstanding combined ratios. And that's as far as I can take you.

就是這些——每個人的傷亡記錄都是不同的。我們的傷亡組合已經產生了這種類型的費率上漲，其中包括為了跟上損失成本的步伐（我們的定價充足）以及更高水平的費率上漲（我們努力實現價格充足）。所有這些都混合在一起，順便說一下，是什麼產生了出色的綜合比率。這就是我所能帶你去的。

Okay. No, that's understood. Maybe just switching gears lastly, since you were willing to offer some color on your guidance on life insurance, so if the target this year was, I guess, $1 billion or so --

好的。不，是這樣理解的。也許最後只是換個方向，因為您願意為人壽保險的指導提供一些色彩，所以如果今年的目標是，我猜，10 億美元左右--

No. Mike, it's not going to happen. I'm not giving you forward-looking guidance. The only thing I was doing is because it was a year where -- it's the first year -- and I was just doing it for all of you because this was our first year where you didn't have noise of acquisitions and that in it, and you're trying to get it, where are we -- and relative to where we think we should be. That was why I gave a comment about the '24 full year where our own target was, I just said, in excess of $1 billion for operating income, and that we are well on track to achieve that or exceed that. And that it was just to give you guys a sort of a landing place. And then from there, we don't give forward guidance.

不。麥克，這不會發生。我不會給你前瞻性的指導。我所做的唯一一件事是，因為這是第一年，我只是為你們所有人做這件事，因為這是我們第一年，沒有收購的噪音。 ——以及相對於我們認為應該在的位置。這就是為什麼我對 24 年全年發表評論，我剛才說過，我們自己的目標是營業收入超過 10 億美元，而且我們正在順利實現或超過這一目標。這只是為了給你們提供一個著陸點。然後從那裡開始，我們不會提供前瞻性指導。

Okay. Got it. Because last year was over $1 billion, but there was definitely some noise and, obviously, earnings there are -- have been great. Okay. Thank you for taking my questions.

好的。知道了。因為去年的收入超過 10 億美元，但肯定有一些噪音，而且顯然，那裡的收益非常好。好的。感謝您回答我的問題。

You're welcome. But by the way, it's a growth area.

不客氣。但順便說一句，這是一個成長領域。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thanks.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，我們將隨時接聽您的電話。享受這一天。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。