丘博保險集團 (CB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Chubb Limited fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Chubb Limited 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資人關係資深副總裁 Karen Beyer。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to our December 31, 2024, fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call.

謝謝大家，歡迎大家參加我們 2024 年 12 月 31 日第四季和年終收益電話會議。

Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website site at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.

我們今天的報告將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與公司業績、定價和業務組合、成長機會以及經濟和市場條件有關的陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能存在重大差異。有關可能影響這些事項的因素的更多信息，請參閱我們最近的 SEC 文件、收益報告和財務補充文件（可在我們的網站 investors.chubb.com 上查閱）。

We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

我們今天也將參考非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳以及相關詳細資訊均在我們的收益新聞稿和財務補充中提供。

Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. Then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions this morning are several members of our management team.

現在我想介紹我們的演講者。首先，我們有董事長兼執行長埃文‧格林伯格 (Evan Greenberg)；接下來是我們的財務長 Peter Enns。然後我們會回答你們的問題。今天上午，我們的管理團隊的幾位成員也將和我們一起協助解答您的問題。

It's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

我很高興將電話轉給埃文。

Good morning. Before I begin, I want to take a moment to speak about the terrible tragedy surrounding the California wildfires, the lives lost and tremendous loss of property, a major disaster still unfolding.

早安.在我開始之前，我想花點時間談談加州野火造成的可怕悲劇，造成人員傷亡和巨大的財產損失，這是一場仍在發生的重大災難。

Our job and the role we play in society is to support our policy holders. Our colleagues have been on the ground, supported by Chubb colleagues throughout the U.S., endeavoring to assist those clients who have lost property, been displaced from their homes and businesses, and had their lives severely disrupted.

我們的工作和在社會中扮演的角色是支持我們的保單持有人。我們的同事在遍佈美國的 Chubb 同事的支持下，一直在實地努力幫助那些失去財產、流離失所、生活受到嚴重干擾的客戶。

While it doesn't erase the enormous difficulty they have and will continue to experience, we're doing all we can in small and big ways to ease their burden. Our thoughts are with those who have suffered, and our gratitude goes to those firefighters and emergency workers who served tirelessly.

雖然這並不能消除他們已經經歷並將繼續經歷的巨大困難，但我們正在盡一切努力，透過各種方式來減輕他們的負擔。我們心繫那些遭受苦難的人們，並向那些不知疲倦地服務的消防員和緊急救援人員表示感謝。

From a financial perspective, our current estimate of the cost of supporting our customers and helping them recover and rebuild from this catastrophe is $1.5 billion net pre-tax and is a first quarter 2025 event.

從財務角度來看，我們目前估計，支持客戶並幫助他們從這場災難中恢復和重建的成本為 15 億美元稅前淨額，並且是 2025 年第一季的事件。

Now, turning to our results for the fourth quarter '24, which you have all seen, we had a great quarter, which contributed to an outstanding year, in fact, the best in our company's history. For the quarter, record P&C underwriting income with a world-class combined ratio of 85.7%, together with another quarter of record investment income, led to core operating income of $2.5 billion.

現在，回顧一下大家已經看到的24 年第四季度的業績，我們度過了一個非常棒的季度，這為今年的出色表現做出了貢獻，事實上，這是我們公司歷史上最好的一年。本季度，財產險和意外險承保收入創歷史新高，綜合成本率達到 85.7%，達到世界一流水平，再加上本季投資收入再創歷史新高，核心營業收入達到 25 億美元。

Operating earnings were up 9.4% on a pre-tax basis, or 10.5% per share, though after tax they were distorted by the one-time tax benefit we received last year. Looking through that, operating income was up over 7.5% after tax.

稅前營業利潤成長 9.4%，即每股收益成長 10.5%，但稅後營業利潤受到去年收到的一次性稅收優惠的影響。從中可以看出，稅後營業收入成長了7.5％以上。

Global P&C premium revenue, which excludes agriculture, grew 6.7% in the quarter, with good contributions from our P&C businesses globally, both North America and Overseas General. Premiums in our Life Insurance division grew 8.5% in constant dollars.

本季全球財產和意外保險保費收入（不包括農業）增加了 6.7%，這得益於我們全球財產和意外事故保險業務（包括北美和海外​​一般保險）的良好貢獻。我們人壽保險部門的保費以固定美元計算增加了 8.5%。

For the year, we generated operating income of $9.1 billion, up 11.5% adjusted for the one-time tax benefit and 13% on a per share basis. Looking more broadly, over the past three years, core operating income has grown over 65% and is nearly double the amount from pre-COVID 2019.

我們全年的營業收入為 91 億美元，以一次性稅收優惠調整後成長 11.5%，以每股盈餘計算成長 13%。更廣泛地說，在過去三年中，核心營業收入成長了 65% 以上，幾乎是 2019 年新冠疫情之前的兩倍。

All three major sources of income for our company produced record results last year: P&C underwriting income of $5.9 billion was up over 7% with a published combined ratio of 86.6%. Adjusted net investment income grew 19.3% to $6.4 billion. And life insurance income topped $1 billion.

去年，我們公司的三大收入來源都創造了創紀錄的業績：財產險和意外險承保收入為 59 億美元，增長超過 7%，公佈的綜合成本率為 86.6%。調整後淨投資收益成長 19.3% 至 64 億美元。人壽保險收入突破10億美元。

For the year, we grew global P&C premiums 9.9% and life premiums 18.5% in constant dollars. Shareholder returns were strong. Our core operating ROE was about 14% and our return on tangible equity was 21.6%. Per share book and tangible book value grew 8.8% and 14.1%, respectively.

今年，我們的全球財產和意外事故保險費以固定美元匯率增加了 9.9%，人壽保險費增加了 18.5%。股東回報強勁。我們的核心營運淨資產收益率約為 14%，有形資產收益率為 21.6%。每股帳面價值和有形帳面價值分別成長 8.8% 和 14.1%。

Our results, top and bottom line, continue to demonstrate the broad and diversified nature of the company and the consistency of contributions from our businesses around the world -- North America, Asia, Europe, Latin America, both commercial and consumer. As we look forward to 2025, we have good momentum and are optimistic about the year ahead, both top and bottom line, CAT losses and FX notwithstanding.

我們的業績，無論是營收或淨利潤，都繼續體現了公司的廣泛性和多元化性質，以及我們遍布全球的業務（北美、亞洲、歐洲、拉丁美洲，包括商業和消費者）貢獻的一致性。展望 2025 年，我們擁有良好的發展勢頭，對未來一年充滿樂觀，無論營收或淨利潤，儘管存在 CAT 損失和外匯影響。

Returning to the quarter, our underwriting performance was outstanding while absorbing a more normal level of CAT losses. P&C underwriting income was $1.6 billion and the current accident year combined ratio, excluding CATs was 82.2%, more than 2 points better than prior year and also a record result. Our prior year's reserve development in the quarter and for the year was $213 million and $856 million, respectively, and speaks to the strength of reserves and conservative nature of our loss reserving practices.

回到本季度，我們的承保業績表現出色，同時吸收了較正常的巨災損失。財產和意外事故承保收入為 16 億美元，本事故年度綜合成本率（不包括巨災保險）為 82.2%，比去年同期高出 2 個百分點以上，也創下了歷史新高。我們去年本季和全年的儲備金發展分別為 2.13 億美元和 8.56 億美元，這顯示我們的儲備金實力強勁，且損失準備金做法保守。

On the asset side, we're investment managers, our other business, and we had another excellent quarter in terms of performance. Our invested asset now stands at $151 billion, and it will continue to grow. For the quarter, adjusted net investment income was a record $1.7 billion, up 13.7%. Our fixed income portfolio yield is 5% versus 4.8% a year ago, and our current new money rate is averaging 5.6%. Peter will have more to say about financial items.

在資產方面，我們是投資經理，這是我們的另一項業務，就業表現而言，我們又度過了一個出色的季度。我們投資的資產現在已達1510億美元，而且還會持續成長。本季度，調整後的淨投資收入達到創紀錄的 17 億美元，成長 13.7%。我們的固定收益投資組合收益率為 5%，而一年前為 4.8%，當前新資金利率平均為 5.6%。彼得將會多談財務問題。

Turning to growth, pricing, and the rate environment, again, Global P&C premiums increased 6.7% in the quarter, with commercial up 6.4% and consumer up 7.5%. All regions of the world contributed favorably. Life premiums grew 8.5%.

談到成長、定價和利率環境，全球財產保險和意外保險保費在本季再次上漲 6.7%，其中商業保險保費上漲 6.4%，消費者保險保費上漲 7.5%。世界各地區都做出了積極貢獻。人壽保險費增加8.5%。

In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, market trends or themes were consistent with those in the previous quarter. Property has grown more competitive in large account shared and layered and E&S, while pricing is favorable. Casualty is stable or firming, depending on the class, and overall pricing is ahead of loss cost trend. And financial lines, particularly D&O and employment practices liability insurance -- is where more competition is reaching for market share at the expense of current accident year underwriting margin.

從商業財產險及意外險利率環境來看，市場趨勢或主題與上一季一致。在大客戶共享和分層以及 E&S 領域，房地產的競爭力已增強，且定價較為優惠。傷亡是穩定還是堅挺，取決於保險類別，整體定價領先於損失成本趨勢。而金融險種，尤其是董事和高階主管責任險和僱用行為責任險，競爭更加激烈，為了爭奪市場份額，犧牲了當前事故年度的承保利潤率。

Overall market conditions are favorable, and we see good growth opportunity for over 80% of our Global P&C business, commercial and consumer, as well as for our life business. North America and Overseas General -- Asia, Europe, and Latin America, each with many areas of favorable growth opportunity. Our middle market and small commercial businesses globally, our US E&S business, our U.S. high-net-worth business, global A&H and life, international personal lines, our digital business, and specialty businesses such as our growing Climate+ business.

整體市場狀況良好，我們認為全球 80% 以上的財產險和意外險業務、商業和消費者險以及壽險業務都有良好的成長機會。北美及海外整體－亞洲、歐洲和拉丁美洲，每個地區都有許多有利的成長機會。我們在全球的中型市場和小型商業業務、我們的美國 E&S 業務、我們的美國高淨值業務、全球 A&H 和人壽、國際個人險、我們的數位業務以及專業業務，例如我們不斷發展的 Climate+ 業務。

Now, returning to the quarter, let me give you some more color by division. Beginning with North America, premiums, excluding Agriculture, were up 6.3% and consisted of 10% growth in personal insurance and 5.1% growth in commercial, with P&C lines up 7.2% and financial lines down 2.9%. We had another strong quarter for new business, up over 22% versus prior year and our renewal retention on a policy count basis was 90.4%. These again speak to the reasonably disciplined tone of the market and our excellent operating performance.

現在，回到本季度，讓我按部門給您更多詳細資訊。從北美開始，不包括農業在內的保費上漲了 6.3%，其中個人保險增加了 10%，商業保險增加了 5.1%，財產和意外傷害險上漲了 7.2%，金融險下降了 2.9%。我們本季的新業務表現又十分強勁，較上年同期成長 22% 以上，以保單數量計算的續保保留率為 90.4%。這些再次證明了市場基調合理以及我們出色的營運表現。

Premiums in our Major Account & Specialty division increased 4.6%, with P&C up 5.8% and financial lines down 1.7%. Within Major & Specialty, our Westchester E&S business grew 8%. Premiums in our middle market division increased 6.2%, with P&C up 10% and financial lines down 5%. Pricing for property and casualty, excluding financial lines and comp, was up 9.9%, with rates up 8.2% and exposure change of 1.6%. Financial lines pricing was down 3.3%, with rates down 3.6%. In workers comp, which includes both primary comp and large account risk management, pricing was up 4.7%, with rates up 2.5% and exposure up 2.1%.

我們大客戶和特殊險種的保費上漲了 4.6%，其中財產險和意外險上漲了 5.8%，而金融險種則下跌了 1.7%。在主要和專業領域，我們的威斯特徹斯特 E&S 業務成長了 8%。我們中端市場部門的保費成長了 6.2%，其中財產險和意外險上漲了 10%，而金融險則下降了 5%。不包括金融險和綜合險的財產險和意外險定價上漲 9.9%，費率上漲 8.2%，風險敞口變動 1.6%。金融線路定價下跌 3.3%，利率下跌 3.6%。在工傷賠償方面，包括主要賠償和大額帳戶風險管理，價格上漲 4.7%，利率上漲 2.5%，風險敞口上漲 2.1%。

Breaking down P&C pricing further, property pricing was up 6.9%, with rates up 3.5% and exposure change of 3.3%. Casualty pricing in North America was up 12.7%, with rates up 11.8% and exposure up 0.8%. Loss costs in North America remained stable -- no change -- and in line with what we contemplate in our loss picks.

進一步細分財產險和意外險定價，房地產價格上漲 6.9%，利率上漲 3.5%，風險敞口變動 3.3%。北美傷亡險價格上漲 12.7%，費率上漲 11.8%，風險敞口上漲 0.8%。北美的損失成本保持穩定 - 沒有變化 - 並且與我們在損失選擇中考慮的一致。

Our North America commercial lines business ran an amazing 83.9% published combined ratio for the year, again, an amazing result. In agriculture, where we are the market leader, our crop underwriting results this quarter were excellent, and we finished the year with $354 million in underwriting profit. Premiums were down from prior year due to lower commodity prices and the formulas for risk sharing with the government.

我們北美商業險業務的年度公佈綜合賠付率高達 83.9%，這又是一個令人驚嘆的成績。在農業領域，我們是市場的領導者，本季我們的農作物承保業績非常出色，全年承保利潤達 3.54 億美元。由於商品價格下跌和與政府分擔風險的公式，保費較上年下降。

On the consumer side of North America, our high-net-worth personal lines business had another outstanding quarter, with premium growth of 10% including new business growth of 34%. Premiums in our true high-net-worth segments, the group that seeks our brand for the differentiated coverage and service we are known for, grew 17.6%.

在北美的消費者方面，我們的高淨值個人險業務又度過了一個出色的季度，保費增長了 10%，其中新業務增長了 34%。我們真正的高淨值群體（因我們的差異化保險範圍和服務而尋求我們品牌的群體）的保費增長了 17.6%。

Our homeowners pricing was up over 12% in the quarter and ahead of loss cost trend, which remained steady. For the year, we ran an outstanding 83.6% combined ratio in our high-net-worth personal lines business.

本季度，我們的房主定價上漲了 12% 以上，並且高於維持穩定的損失成本趨勢。全年，我們的高淨值個人險業務的綜合成本率達到了出色的 83.6%。

Turning to our international general insurance operations, premiums in the quarter for our retail business were up 7.7%, with commercial lines up 10.3% and consumer up 4.7%. From a region of the world perspective, Asia-Pacific led the way with premiums up 12.2%. Europe grew 8.2%, including growth of 12% on the Continent. Latin America grew just 2.5% and was impacted by foreign exchange. If you adjust for that, Latin America was up 11.5% in constant dollars.

談到我們的國際一般保險業務，本季我們的零售業務保費上漲 7.7%，其中商業險保費上漲 10.3%，消費者保險保費上漲 4.7%。從世界區域來看，亞太地區領先，保費上漲12.2%。歐洲成長了 8.2%，其中歐洲大陸成長了 12%。拉丁美洲僅成長2.5%，並受到外匯的影響。如果對此進行調整，以固定美元匯率計算，拉丁美洲經濟上漲了 11.5%。

In our international retail commercial business, P&C pricing was up 3.7% and financial lines pricing was down more than 6%. Premiums in our London wholesale business were essentially flat, up 1.1%, with prices down 4% as the London market continued to grow more competitive. For the year, our Overseas General business ran an excellent 86.4% combined ratio.

在我們的國際零售商業業務中，財產和意外事故保險定價上漲了 3.7%，而金融險定價下跌了 6% 以上。由於倫敦市場的競爭日益激烈，我們的倫敦批發業務的保費基本上持平，上漲了 1.1%，而價格則下降了 4%。全年我們的海外一般業務的綜合成本率達到 86.4%，表現十分出色。

Our global reinsurance business had a strong quarter with premium growth of about 20% and finished the year with premiums up 32% and a combined ratio of 85.9%, reflecting a more disciplined reinsurance market both property and pockets of casualty.

我們的全球再保險業務本季表現強勁，保費成長約 20%，全年保費成長 32%，綜合成本率為 85.9%，反映出財產險和意外險再保險市場更為規範。

In our international life business, which is fundamentally Asia, premiums and deposits were up over 26% in constant dollars and Combined Insurance Company, our U.S. worksite business, grew 17.8%. Our life division finished the year with pre-tax income of $1.1 billion, which was ahead of what we originally projected for the year. We have good momentum in our life business which continues to build.

在我們的國際人壽業務（主要在亞洲）中，保費和存款以固定美元計算上漲了 26% 以上，而我們的美國業務聯合保險公司則增加了 17.8%。我們的人壽保險部門今年的稅前收入為 11 億美元，高於我們最初預期的年度收入。我們的人壽保險業務保持著良好的發展勢頭，並將繼續保持成長勢頭。

In summary, we had a great quarter and a great year. While we're in the risk business and there's plenty of uncertainty in the world, we're confident in our ability to continue growing operating earnings and EPS at a double-digit rate, CATs and FX notwithstanding. Our earnings growth will come from three sources: P&C underwriting, investment income, and life income.

總而言之，我們度過了一個美好的季度和美好的一年。雖然我們處於風險業務中，而且世界上存在著許多不確定性，但我們有信心，儘管存在巨額損失和外匯影響，我們仍然能夠繼續以兩位數的速度增長營業利潤和每股收益。我們的獲利成長將來自三個來源：財產和意外事故承保、投資收益和人壽收入。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Peter.

現在我將把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Evan, and good morning. As you just heard, we concluded the year with another strong quarter, contributing to record full year results across our three primary sources of earnings.

謝謝你，埃文，早安。正如您剛才所聽到的，我們以又一個強勁的季度結束了這一財年，為我們三大主要收入來源的全年業績創下了歷史新高。

Our balance sheet finished the year in an exceptionally strong position with book value of $64 billion and total invested assets of $151 billion. The quarter and full year produced adjusted operating cash flow of $4.2 billion and a record $15.9 billion, respectively. It's also worth noting that during the quarter, AM Best affirmed our company's rating and stable outlook, and in January, S&P affirmed our rating and stable outlook.

我們的資產負債表在今年底表現異常強勁，帳面價值達 640 億美元，總投資資產達 1,510 億美元。本季和全年調整後營運現金流分別為 42 億美元和創紀錄的 159 億美元。另外值得注意的是，在本季度，AM Best 確認了我們公司的評級和穩定展望，1 月份，標準普爾確認了我們的評級和穩定展望。

During the quarter we returned $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders, including $725 million in share repurchases and $367 million in dividends. We returned $3.5 billion in total for the year, including $2.0billion in share repurchases and $1.5 billion in dividends, which represented approximately 38% of our full-year core operating earnings. The average share price on repurchases for the year was $269.23.

本季度，我們向股東返還了 11 億美元的資本，其中包括 7.25 億美元的股票回購和 3.67 億美元的股息。我們全年總計返還 35 億美元，其中包括 20 億美元的股票回購和 15 億美元的股息，約占我們全年核心營業收入的 38%。全年回購平均股價為269.23美元。

Book value for the quarter and the year was adversely impacted by unrealized mark-to-market losses on our high-quality fixed income portfolio due to interest rate changes, which we expect to amortize back to par over time, as well as foreign exchange losses. Book and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI grew 2.9% and 4.3%, respectively, for the quarter, and 10.8% and 15.4%, respectively, for the year. Our core operating return on tangible equity for the quarter and year was 22.0% and 21.6%, respectively, while our core operating ROE for the quarter and year was 14.3% and 13.9%.

由於利率變動導致我們的優質固定收益投資組合出現未實現的市價損失（我們預計這些損失將隨著時間的推移攤銷至面值），本季度和本年度的賬面價值受到不利影響，外匯損失亦是如此。不包括 AOCI 的每股帳面價值和有形帳面價值本季分別成長 2.9% 和 4.3%，全年分別成長 10.8% 和 15.4%。我們本季和全年的核心營運有形資產回報率分別為 22.0% 和 21.6%，而本季和全年的核心營運 ROE 分別為 14.3% 和 13.9%。

Turning to investments, our A-rated portfolio, which now has an average book yield of 5%, produced adjusted net investment income of $1.69 billion, which included approximately $25 million of higher-than-normal income from private equity. We expect our quarterly adjusted net investment income to have a run rate between $1.67 billion and $1.75 billion over the next six months.

談到投資，我們的 A 級投資組合目前平均帳面收益率為 5%，調整後淨投資收益為 16.9 億美元，其中包括約 2,500 萬美元的高於正常水準的私募股權收入。我們預計未來六個月季度調整後的淨投資收益將在 16.7 億美元至 17.5 億美元之間。

Regarding underwriting results, the quarter included pre-tax catastrophe losses of $607 million, of which $309 million was from Hurricane Milton and $140 million from Hurricane Helene. The remaining balance was principally from weather-related events, split 31% in the US and 69% internationally.

在核保結果方面，本季的稅前災難損失為 6.07 億美元，其中 3.09 億美元來自颶風米爾頓，1.4 億美元來自颶風海倫。剩餘部分主要來自天氣相關事件，其中美國佔31%，國際佔69%。

Prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was favorable $352 million pre-tax, with favorable development split 17% in long-tail lines, primarily from general casualty, and 83% in short-tail lines, primarily from property and agriculture.

我們活躍公司本季的上期發展有利，稅前利潤為3.52 億美元，其中長尾險（主要來自一般傷亡險）的有利發展份額為17%，短尾險（主要來自財產險和農業險）的有利發展份額為83%。

Our corporate runoff portfolio had adverse development of $139 million, primarily asbestos related. Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the year was 83%. Our core effective tax rate was 18.2% for the quarter and 17.5% for the year, which are below our previously guided range due to the shifts in mix of income. We expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for 2025 to be in the range of 19% to 19.5%, including the transition cash tax benefit provided on the adoption of the new Bermuda income tax.

我們的公司虧損投資組合出現了 1.39 億美元的不利發展，主要與石棉有關。我們本年度的支出與支出比率為 83%。我們本季的核心有效稅率為 18.2%，全年的核心有效稅率為 17.5%，由於收入結構的變化，該稅率低於我們先前預期的範圍。我們預計 2025 年的年度核心營業有效稅率將在 19% 至 19.5% 之間，其中包括採用新的百慕達所得稅所提供的過渡現金稅收優惠。

I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.

我現在將電話轉回給凱倫。

Thank you. And at this point, we'll be happy to take your questions.

謝謝。現在，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Brian Meredith, UBS.

（操作員指示）瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Brian Meredith。

A couple of questions here for -- Evan, I'm wondering if you could dig into a little bit the Cal fire loss estimate that you've given out there. Does it include assessment, subrogation, kind of ground up? Maybe give us a little context on kind of how we should be thinking about the $1.5 billion number.

這裡有幾個問題——埃文，我想知道你是否可以深入了解你給出的加州火災損失估計。它是否包括評估、代位求償權以及其他類似事宜？也許您可以給我們一些背景信息，讓我們知道應該如何看待 15 億美元這個數字。

Yeah. First of all, it's a ground-up number. It's our own losses. We don't go off of what we imagine as a total industry wildfire loss or the market share or any of that -- this is our number, that our adjusters on the ground have been able to estimate property by property. It does include an assessment for our projection of an assessment from the FAIR plan and we don't take credit in ours for subrogation.

是的。首先，這是一個自上而下的數字。這是我們自己的損失。我們不會根據所想像的整個行業火災損失或市場份額或任何類似數據來判斷，這是我們的數字，是我們實地理賠員對每個房產進行估算的結果。它確實包括了我們對公平計劃評估預測的評估，並且我們不承擔代位求償權的義務。

Great. That's helpful. And then my second question, Evan, I'm just curious, looking at 2025, I mean, it's still getting some solid growth in commercial lines, call it, mid-to-high single-digit organic growth here in premium. But if you think of 2025, is that kind of a good number to target organically? And then is this kind of the period that we're looking at that maybe you should start looking a little bit more at inorganic growth opportunities?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後我的第二個問題，埃文，我很好奇，展望 2025 年，我的意思是，它在商業線上仍然會穩步增長，可以說是高端產品的中高個位數有機增長。但如果你考慮 2025 年，這是否是一個適合有機瞄準的數字？那麼，在我們所關注的這個時期，您是否應該開始更專注於無機成長機會？

I love you, Brian. Yeah. I don't give -- we don't give guidance and forward looking. But your first statement, your logic sounds pretty decent to me. I didn't say it, you said it. And as for inorganic growth, money is not burning a hole in our pocket. And as you know, it's opportunistic and it's in support of our organic strategies and it's got to be the right thing at the right price. And so we're always looking.

我愛你，布萊恩。是的。我不提供—我們不提供指導和前瞻性。但是你的第一句話，你的邏輯在我看來聽起來相當不錯。我沒說，是你說的。至於無機成長，錢不會花光我們的口袋。如你所知，這是機會主義的，它支持我們的有機策略，而且必須以合適的價格做出合適的產品。因此我們一直在尋找。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

I had a question on the -- for Peter and Evan, on the favorable long-tail reserve development, the 17% of the $350 million or so on the active companies. It sounds like that was driven by general casualty. That's a bit of a change versus what you guys have experienced over the last several quarters.

我有一個問題，關於彼得和埃文，關於有利的長尾儲備發展，3.5 億美元中的 17% 左右用於活躍的公司。聽起來這是由一般傷亡引起的。與過去幾個季度你們所經歷的情況相比，這是一個變化。

So I'm wondering if you could elaborate on the favorable development that you're seeing there because that's quite different than what you and others have been reporting. And any clarity on what sort of accident years it's coming from too would be helpful.

所以我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您在那裡看到的有利發展，因為這與您和其他人所報告的完全不同。並且，弄清楚事故發生在哪一年也是有幫助的。

Well, I'm going to correct your mental model to begin with. Our casualty, we study different portfolios in casualty each quarter. Some casualty portfolios, we have taken reserve strengthening. Some portfolios, we've taken no action. Some portfolios, we've had reserve releases. And there has not been a consistency per quarter. Except the consistency is the portfolios we study each quarter. And so, the cohort of casualty we studied this quarter had favorable development given the reserve strength in that portfolio.

好吧，首先我要修正你的思考模式。我們的傷亡，我們每季研究傷亡的不同投資組合。對於一些意外險投資組合，我們已經採取了儲備加強措施。對於一些投資組合，我們沒有採取任何行動。對於一些投資組合，我們已經釋放了儲備金。但每季的情況並不一致。除了一致性之外，我們每季都會研究投資組合。因此，考慮到該投資組合的儲備實力，我們本季研究的傷亡群體取得了良好的發展。

Got it. Helpful. Thank you for that. And then maybe -- obviously, strong results in North America commercial. That included a little bit of a headwind from the structured transactions too. Could you -- of that 40 basis point headwind, could you just help me think about the impact that had on the loss ratio? And how we should think about the durability of that loss ratio going forward?

知道了。很有幫助。謝謝你。然後也許——顯然，北美商業業績強勁。這也包括來自結構化交易的一些阻力。您能否幫我分析一下這 40 個基點的逆風對損失率有何影響？我們該如何看待未來損失率的持久性？

You're saying on structured transaction, what's its impact in the quarter on loss ratio?

您說的是結構化交易，它對本季的損失率有何影響？

Yeah.

是的。

Our structured transactions typically run off favorable. We don't break down the pieces and going to give you each -- the component of that exactly. What you should know is they run a higher loss ratio than the average portfolio does. David, does that help you?

我們的結構化交易通常都會產生有利的結果。我們不會將其分解並向您提供每個部分的確切組成部分。您應該知道的是，他們的損失率比平均投資組合高。大衛，這對你有幫助嗎？

Yeah, that does help. I mean, I guess you guys had given the 40 basis points just on the total combined ratio. I guess I can just use that sort of as like a placeholder for what sort of impact that may have had on the -- maybe a little bit bigger on the loss ratio, maybe up --

是的，這確實有幫助。我的意思是，我猜你們已經根據總體綜合比率給了 40 個基點。我想我可以用它作為佔位符來表示這可能會對損失率產生什麼樣的影響——可能會稍微大一點，可能會上升--

I don't have it on hand but it's probably -- it's in the range, okay?

我手頭上沒有，但它可能──在範圍內，好嗎？

Got it. Understood. That's helpful. Thank you.

知道了。明白了。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Look, we're talking basis points, so it's easy for me to tell you you're in the range. I mean it could be 10 basis points up or down. But we'll take it offline with you and help you with that.

你看，我們正在談論基點，所以我很容易告訴你，你在範圍內。我的意思是它可能會上升或下降 10 個基點。但我們會與您一起將其離線並為您提供協助。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Evan, in response to Brian's question, you said you love him. I don't recall you ever saying you love a sell-side analyst. So the new year is definitely starting off good for us.

艾文，在回答布萊恩的問題時，你說你愛他。我不記得您曾經說過喜歡賣方分析師。所以新的一年對我們來說肯定是一個好的開始。

Don't mess it up, Greg.

別把事情搞砸了，格雷格。

All right. I'm sure I can, that's anyway, in the press release you say you're growing operating earnings and EPS at a double-digit rate. You talked about the three buckets, P&C, investment income, and life insurance. So maybe you can, from a big picture perspective, unpack Life insurance and talk about where you see the growth coming next year or this year, I should say, '25, and how it might compare with how the growth came out for '24.

好的。我確信可以，無論如何，在新聞稿中您說您的營業收入和每股收益正在以兩位數的速度增長。您談到了三個方面，即財產和意外保險、投資收益和人壽保險。因此，也許您可以從大局角度來分析人壽保險，並談談您認為明年或今年（我應該說 25 年）的成長前景，以及與 24 年的成長相比，情況如何。

Yeah. There was a lot of consolidation impact on the life income in the '23 year and a little bit of noise in '24. There was one-time stuff in '23. So to look through the underlying growth rate of that, it produced a really solid double-digit growth rate in income. When I look through it, it was in that 12% to 14% range.

是的。23 年，合併對人壽收入產生了很大的影響，24 年則產生了一些噪音。'23 年有一次性的東西。所以從其潛在的成長率來看，它的收入實現了真正穩健的兩位數成長率。當我查看它時，它處於 12% 到 14% 的範圍內。

When I look forward, I see that continuing and even strengthening a bit. We have good momentum, and it's obviously Asia. And it's both North Asia and it's Southeast Asia. Our business in Korea, while the revenue growth is not overly exciting, the margin of that business continues to expand, and our overall income is growing. It's a ballast of the business. It's supported by countries that are growing much more quickly, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China now growing more quickly for us.

當我展望未來時，我看到這種情況仍在繼續，甚至有所加強。我們有著良好的發展勢頭，而且顯然是在亞洲。它既包括北亞，也包括東南亞。我們在韓國的業務，雖然營收成長並不是特別令人興奮，但該業務的利潤率不斷擴大，我們的整體收入也在成長。它是業務的壓艙石。它得到了成長更快的國家的支持，香港、台灣、中國現在對我們來說成長更快。

And each of those producing improved margin and, therefore, faster income growth. Southeast Asia with Vietnam and Thailand, they had slower growth this past year, and they are accelerating as we go forward.

所有這些都提高了利潤率，從而加快了收入成長。東南亞的越南和泰國，去年的成長速度較慢，但未來將會加速。

And finally, we have two other businesses in Indonesia and in New Zealand that are good businesses, picking up momentum. It's in direct response marketing, it's in agency. And over 60% of the business, about 70% of it, is really Accident & Health and risk-based type products. And the rest is very conservatively structured savings-related products. Because people in Asia, you have two themes. You have an aging population in the north that requires a certain kind of savings and health-related products. And then you have people in Southeast Asia with a younger population, family oriented. There are no social safety nets, and so they rely on these kinds of products much more than they do in other parts of the world.

最後，我們在印尼和紐西蘭還有另外兩家企業，它們的業務發展良好，並且發展勢頭良好。它屬於直接反應行銷，也屬於代理行銷。其中超過 60% （約 70%）的業務實際上是意外和健康保險以及基於風險的產品。其餘的都是結構非常保守的儲蓄相關產品。因為在亞洲，你們有兩個主題。北方人口老化，需要一定類型的儲蓄和健康相關產品。東南亞的人口結構較為年輕，以家庭為中心。由於沒有社會安全網，他們對這類產品的依賴程度遠高於世界其他地區。

And I'll remind you, unlike many regions of the world, these parts of Asia are growing, particularly Southeast Asia. The economic growth is multiples of what we're seeing in the West. And that just means a rising middle class.

我要提醒你們，與世界上許多地區不同，亞洲這些地區正在發展，特別是東南亞。經濟成長是西方國家的數倍。這就意味著中產階級的崛起。

Thanks for the perspective and detail. I guess pivoting to the other bucket, which is PC. It seems like the broader market is producing some pretty good results relative to longer-term averages. And we're hearing about increased competition across a broader set of lines of business. Even you in your comments talked about financial lines. So maybe you could spend some -- a minute and give us some perspective on how you think where we are in the cycle and how Chubb is going to be positioned to come out of it.

感謝您的觀點和細節。我想轉向另一個領域，那就是 PC。相對於長期平均水平，大盤似乎正在產生相當好的結果。我們也聽說更多業務領域的競爭日益激烈。甚至您也在評論中談到了財務線。所以也許您可以花一點時間，告訴我們您認為我們處於週期的哪個階段，以及 Chubb 將如何走出週期。

Yeah. It goes to my comment about 80% of the business growth and where you therefore see the pockets of competition. As a backdrop and in the way you think about cycles, and I've been thinking about this for a while, we're in a more inflationary period in the insurance industry, and it's a prolonged one than we have seen it in a very long time. We went through decades of really relatively low inflation. On the short-tail class side, virtually pretty flat. And on the long-tail side, there's always been pockets, but it was running at a lower level. We're in a period of sustained inflation. So, to just stay in place, rates have to move. Doesn't mean margins improve if they just keep pace with loss cost. So a certain amount of industry growth is just to reflect inflation.

是的。這與我之前關於 80% 的業務成長的評論相符，因此您會看到競爭的環節。作為背景，以及你對週期的看法，我已經考慮了一段時間了，我們正處於保險業通膨加劇的時期，而且這段時期比我們過去很長一段時間看到的要長。我們經歷了幾十年通膨率相對較低的時期。在短尾類別方面，實際上相當平坦。而在長尾方面，一直存在口袋，但運行水平較低。我們正處於持續通貨膨脹時期。因此，為了維持現狀，利率必須變動。如果利潤率僅與損失成本保持同步，並不代表利潤率會提高。因此一定程度的產業成長只是為了反映通貨膨脹。

The competition is increasing in shared and large account business. So first, large account will grow more slowly because you have a couple of lines of business where competition increases, property, shared and layered property, but it's well priced. And it doesn't mean that there's a decrease in margin. It means that to retain business, you become a bit more competitive, it's harder to grow, more want that business.

共享業務和大客戶業務的競爭日益激烈。因此，首先，大帳戶的成長會比較慢，因為你有幾條業務線，競爭加劇，包括房地產、共享和分層房地產，但價格合理。但這並不意味著利潤率會下降。這意味著，為了留住業務，你必須變得更具競爭力，成長會變得更加困難，企業對業務的需求也會更大。

So you're not going to see growth, but you're going to see good results from all, we're imagining, as we go forward. E&S property, same thing. Financial lines in large account, same thing. And then primary casualty is not a real growth business, but it's a ballast that supports growth of many other lines of large account. So large account, not so much.

因此，你不會看到成長，但你會看到各方面都取得好的結果，這是我們想像的，隨著我們不斷前進。E&S 財產，同樣的事情。大額帳戶的財務線也是一樣。雖然主要傷亡險並不是一個真正的成長型業務，但它是支持許多其他大型帳戶業務成長的壓艙石。那麼大的帳戶，就沒那麼多了。

In middle market and small commercial, growth opportunity. And it's a growth opportunity across many segments. And by the way, there's certain secular change taking place in that business. And by the way, it's not simply in the United States. It's global.

在中型市場和小型商業中，存在著成長機會。這對許多領域來說都是一個成長機會。順便說一句，該行業正在發生一些長期變化。順便說一句，這不僅發生在美國。它是全球性的。

And then the consumer lines business, from high-net-worth to personal lines outside the United States, to our accident and health businesses, particularly with middle class in Asia and in Latin America on both the life side and the non-life side. When I add it all up, that -- anyway, does that give you a sense?

然後是消費者險種業務，從高淨值保險到美國以外的個人險種，再到我們的意外和健康險業務，特別是針對亞洲和拉丁美洲的中產階級的壽險和非壽險業務。當我把所有這些加起來時，那——無論如何，這給你一種感覺了嗎？

Yeah, it does. What do you mean by the secular change comment?

是的。您所說的長期變化評論是什麼意思？

When you -- particularly in middle market in the United States, I'll take that as an example. With all of the change in climate and CAT activity, and with the change in the legal environment around the trial bar and social inflation, regional and mutuals have a harder time. They're not equipped with the data, with the balance sheet, with the depth of business in reinsurance relationships to be able to -- and with the technology, to be able to compete the same way. And that, over time, is shifting market share and it's shifting -- and it advantages a few larger players.

當你——特別是在美國中端市場時，我會以此為例。隨著氣候和 CAT 活動的不斷變化，以及審判律師資格和社會通貨膨脹的法律環境的變化，地區和互助組織的日子越來越難過。他們不具備數據、資產負債表和再保險關係業務深度，因此缺乏技術以同樣的方式競爭。隨著時間的推移，市場份額正在轉變，而這種轉變對少數較大的參與者有利。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

First, I was hoping you can walk us through any changes to your reinsurance purchasing at January 1?

首先，我希望您能向我們介紹一下 1 月 1 日購買再保險有何變化？

None.

沒有任何。

Okay. That's pretty easy. Second, I don't know if this is significant --

好的。這非常簡單。其次，我不知道這是否重要--

Yeah, there's nothing to embellish.

是啊，沒什麼好修飾的。

That's fine. It makes writing the note easier. There's a little bit of an uptick in administrative expenses in North America Commercial, and I was hoping you could walk us through that. I don't know if it's incentive compensation or something else?

沒關係。它使得寫筆記變得更容易。北美商業的管理費用略有上升，我希望您能向我們介紹一下這種情況。不知道是激勵性薪酬還是其他的？

A little uptick in what in North America?

北美出現了什麼小漲？

The admin expenses.

行政費用。

No, it's just -- oh my god, it's 0.1%. It's just noise.

不，這只是——天哪，只有 0.1%。這只是噪音。

I'm sorry, go ahead. Yeah, I was looking at the dollars, not the percentage.

抱歉，請說。是的，我看的是美元，而不是百分比。

No, it's just -- nothing. It's just variability in the quarter. There's not a trend in that.

不，只是——沒什麼。這只是季度內的變化。這不是一個趨勢。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

First is a follow-up to your insights about the secular change in the U.S. middle market space. So if I think through your comments in the past, Evan, you've said that Chubb has aspirations to move more down market, and your definition of mid-market or small market might be also different than some of the peers.

首先，我想問一下您對美國中端市場長期變化的見解。因此，如果我回顧您過去的評論，Evan，您曾說過 Chubb 渴望進一步進軍低端市場，而您對中端市場或小型市場的定義可能也與一些同行不同。

But just curious if you're painting a picture that Chubb's competitive advantages are growing versus some of its peers, would you still have aspirations to kind of do inorganic things in the small mid-market space in the U.S. or less so as time goes on?

但我很好奇，如果你描繪的畫面是Chubb 的競爭優勢相對於它的一些同行正在增長，那麼隨著時間的推移，你是否仍然有志於在美國小型中型市場做一些非有機的事情，或者說這種願望會逐漸減弱。

Our focus is on organic, SME, small and middle market, and it's organic. And that is our focus and has been our focus. On anything that's inorganic is simply opportunistic. And that's not our focus. It's opportunistic.

我們的重點是有機、中小企業、中小型市場，而且是有機的。這就是我們的重點，一直是我們的重點。任何無機的東西都只是機會主義的。但這不是我們的重點。這是機會主義的。

Okay. And lastly, switching gears, on the investment portfolio. There's been a bit of a an increase in equities over the last couple of quarters, were up to about $9 billion. Anything changing there in terms of kind of over the next year you expect to see different mix shift in the investment portfolio? Thanks.

好的。最後，轉換話題，談投資組合。過去幾個季度，股票市場略有成長，達到約 90 億美元。您預計明年投資組合中會發生哪些不同的變化？謝謝。

Mike, it's Peter. First off, that specific $5 billion shift relates to us actually moving about $5 billion of investment-grade corporates into a fund for, call it, investment efficiency purposes between different entities. The underlying is still investment-grade fixed income, but because of GAAP, we have to show it as equity. So there's no underlying change in that.

麥克，我是彼得。首先，這個特定的 50 億美元轉移涉及我們實際上將大約 50 億美元的投資等級公司資產轉移到一個基金中，以實現不同實體之間的投資效率目的。標的仍然是投資等級固定收益，但由於 GAAP，我們必須將其顯示為股權。因此，這方面並沒有根本性的改變。

In terms of the going forward, we've spoken about our strategy, you'll see in the investor presentation. There will be a change in investment allocation, slight change, which we put out there in that investor deck.

關於未來，我們已經討論了我們的策略，您會在投資者演示中看到。投資配置將會改變，我們會在投資人平台上提出一些細微的改變。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman），TD Cowen 公司。

Evan, in casualty lines, you mentioned the 12% rate increases in North America. That sounds really solid. But in reinsurance, you said there were pockets of strength. And I'm hearing overall in reinsurance casualty, there's a lot of softness going on. So one, why the disconnect? And two, what are those pockets of weakness in casualty reinsurance?

埃文，在傷亡險方面，你提到了北美 12% 的費率上漲。聽起來確實可靠。但在再保險領域，您說存在一些優勢領域。而且我聽說，整體而言，再保險意外險業務存在著許多疲軟情況。那麼，為什麼會出現斷線現象呢？第二，意外傷害再保險的弱點是什麼？

No, I said there's pockets of opportunity in reinsurance casualty. You have to be so very selective, and I'm not going to go into more detail than that. But let's be clear, we have not been significant, by any means, reinsurance casualty writers.

不，我說的是再保險意外險領域存在著機會。你必須非常謹慎地選擇，我不會對此進行更詳細的闡述。但我們要明確一點，無論如何，我們並不是重要的再保險意外險承保人。

And in fact, we shrank and shrank and shrank over quite a number of years because we didn't see the market producing an underwriting profit. You know the market is stressed in reinsurance casualty. And we see selective pockets, I'm not going to overstate it. Relative to Chubb, it's not big money.

事實上，由於我們沒有看到市場產生承保利潤，我們在相當長的一段時間內不斷萎縮。您知道再保險意外險市場面臨壓力。我們看到了選擇性的口袋，我不會誇大其詞。相對於 Chubb 來說，這並不是什麼大數目。

Got it. And then with regard to the financial lines --

知道了。關於財務方面--

And we have these opportunistic trades pipeline

我們有這些機會性貿易管道

Got it. And then with regard to financial lines, it looks like that's the area where you're seeing premiums decline across the board. It's been about three years now of continuous decline, particularly in public D&O. What is it that players like about it that they continue to go after it, and you just don't think it's good business in this -- at this point?

知道了。然後就金融險而言，看起來這是你看到保費全面下降的領域。大約三年來，該行業一直處於持續下滑狀態，尤其是在公共 D&O 領域。為什麼玩家喜歡它並不斷追求它，而您只是認為就目前的情況來看，這不是一項好的生意嗎？

Well, we love the business. It's the pricing. And look, during the pandemic, there was a significant drop-off in securities class actions, and in other forms of loss, let's call it employment practices liability, during the financial crisis.

嗯，我們熱愛這項業務。這是定價。而且，在疫情期間，證券集體訴訟以及金融危機期間其他形式的損失（我們稱之為僱傭行為責任）大幅下降。

And so those years are producing favorable results. And the head fake around it, which is why I use the words current accident year, is in terms of loss, the number of securities class actions, the frequency of loss, is reverting back to the mean. And in some areas, like employment practices, in fact, frequency of loss is increasing pretty quickly. Severity of loss continues to trend.

因此這些年取得了良好的業績。而圍繞它的假象，也就是為什麼我使用「當前事故年份」這個詞，是就損失而言，證券集體訴訟的數量，損失的頻率，正在回歸平均水平。事實上，在某些領域，例如就業實踐，損失的頻率正在迅速增加。損失嚴重程度持續呈現趨勢。

And so I think what they don't see or they ignore is what's coming about current accident year margins and pressure. We know this. We have a big book of this business, and Chubb is a leader in this business across classes. And so we're patient, and we know how to ebb and flow in that, period. So it doesn't -- it's not something you like looking at, but on the other hand, we've got plenty of other tables to play.

因此，我認為他們沒有看到或忽略的是當前事故年度的利潤率和壓力。我們知道這一點。我們在這個行業有大量的資產，而 Chubb 是這個行業各個領域的領導者。所以我們很有耐心，也知道如何順應形勢，僅此而已。所以這不是你喜歡看的東西，但另一方面，我們還有很多其他的桌子可以玩。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特 (Alex Scott)。

First one I had for you all is on sort of the fallout from what we're going to see in California from the wildfires. And I guess, specifically, what will your approach be to the market going forward? Will you have to make any changes in the way you approach that market? And just interested in any thoughts you have on what needs to be done to make -- to sort of stabilize the insurance market there.

我要問大家的第一個問題是，加州野火將會帶來哪些後果。我想，具體來說，您對未來的市場策略是什麼？您是否需要對該市場的態度做出一些改變？我只是想知道您對需要做些什麼來穩定那裡的保險市場有什麼想法。

Yeah. Thank you for that question.

是的。感謝您的提問。

Look, California is a difficult market for insurance companies, and it has only become more difficult over time. The state, along with the pressure it receives from consumer advocacy groups, suppresses the ability to charge a fair price for the risk and tailor coverages to improve availability and affordability of insurance for the citizens of the state. Insurers are unable to generate a reasonable risk-adjusted return commensurate with the risk of ensuring natural perils, such as wildfire, and the cost in California associated with reconstruction following a disaster.

你看，加州對保險公司來說是一個困難的市場，而且隨著時間的推移只會變得更加困難。政府在消費者權益保護團體的壓力下，無法對風險收取公平的價格，也無法定制保險範圍，以提高本州公民獲得保險的可行性和可負擔性。保險公司無法產生與承保自然災害（例如野火）的風險以及加州災後重建的成本相稱的合理風險調整回報。

This suppression of pricing signals, which are rising, encourages more risk taking by individuals and businesses as to where they choose to live or work, and it encourages less risk management or loss mitigation activity. And their part as well, by federal, state and local governments, will all have a hand in loss mitigation activity that actually is occurring or not occurring. In a word, economics incent behaviors. And California is impacting those economic signals.

這種對定價訊號的抑制正在加劇，鼓勵個人和企業在選擇居住或工作地點時承擔更多風險，並減少風險管理或損失緩解活動。聯邦、州和地方政府也將參與正在發生或尚未發生的減輕損失活動。總之，經濟學激勵行為。加州正在影響這些經濟訊號。

As insurers have reduced their exposures in the state, the state is offered more underpriced coverage through its own insurer of last resort. Frankly, it's an unsustainable model. And one way or the other, the citizens of the state paid a price for coverage. California is not alone in this regard, but it certainly stands out.

由於保險公司減少了在該州的風險敞口，該州透過其最後的保險公司獲得了更多價格較低的保險。坦白說，這是一種不可持續的模式。不管怎樣，該州的公民都為該報道付出了代價。加州並不是唯一一個這樣做的國家，但它的情況卻非常突出。

We've been shrinking our exposure in California for some time. For example, in the area where the wildfires occurred, our exposure has been reduced by over 50%. We're not going to write insurance where we cannot achieve a reasonable risk-adjusted return for taking the risk.

一段時間以來，我們一直在減少在加州的業務。例如，在發生野火的地區，我們的暴露程度減少了50%以上。如果我們無法透過承擔風險獲得合理的風險調整回報，我們就不會簽發保險。

That's really helpful. And then maybe just a follow-on question to that. Would you expect what's going on in California and sort of the fallout from that to affect property pricing more broadly? I mean it seems like the world is becoming a riskier place. And certainly, price adequacy seem pretty good in property in other areas. But will this be enough to change thinking whether it's at the primary or reinsurance level in your view?

這真的很有幫助。然後也許這只是一個後續問題。您是否預計加州發生的事情及其後果會對更廣泛的房地產定價產生影響？我的意思是世界似乎變得越來越危險。當然，其他地區的房地產價格適宜性似乎相當不錯。但您認為這是否足以改變思維，無論是在初級保險還是再保險層面？

It's too early to tell. I don't know yet. As the magnitude of this loss emerges and grows, more of it begins to find its way to reinsurance balance sheets and to other balance sheets. And that's going to be the question, is what is the ultimate size of the loss and where does it end up? And that will give us -- that will determine whether it has a broader impact on overall property pricing, which, in my judgment, overall is adequate. And this is a reminder of why the industry needs to maintain pricing adequacy.

現在說還太早。我還不知道。隨著損失規模的擴大和擴大，更多的損失開始進入再保險資產負債表和其他資產負債表。問題是，損失的最終規模是多少，最終會落在哪裡？這將決定它是否對整體房地產定價產生更廣泛的影響，在我看來，總體而言是足夠的。這也提醒我們為什麼該行業需要保持定價充分性。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

My first question, can you guys provide, I guess, what the current excess capital drag on your ROE is?

我的第一個問題是，你們能否提供一下，目前過剩資本對你們的 ROE 的拖累是什麼？

The current excess capital ROE drag. Yeah. We haven't disclosed that in a while, Elyse. And again, how we're thinking about things, consistent with what we talked about in our investor presentation, is looking at our capital as also a source of investment as we gradually and incrementally increase our asset allocation towards alts. That's just starting.

目前資本過剩拖累了ROE。是的。伊莉絲，我們已經有一段時間沒有透露這件事了。再次強調，我們的想法與我們在投資者演示中談論的內容一致，我們將資本也視為投資來源，並逐步增加對另類資產的配置。這才剛開始。

So I'll say right now, looking at the year behind us, it would be in a range similar to, call it, a year ago that we discussed and people backward computed. So it was in the range of ROE looking backwards of around 2% on ROE and 6% on ROTE.

所以我現在要說的是，回顧過去的一年，它將處於類似於一年前我們所討論的和人們向後計算的範圍內。因此，回顧 ROE 範圍，其 ROE 約為 2%，ROTE 約為 6%。

That's helpful. And then my second question, you provided tax guidance, and I think you had said, right, that it considers some transition cash tax benefit from Bermuda. I had also thought that there was some -- the potential, right, for some reversals of the DTAs that were set up. So I'm assuming -- I think that might not take place this year but might be a couple of years out. Are you guys just assuming no change in the DTA structure of what was set up a year ago?

這很有幫助。然後我的第二個問題是，您提供了稅收指導，我想您已經說了，對的，它考慮了百慕達的一些過渡現金稅收優惠。我還認為，已經制定的避免雙重課稅協定 (DTA) 有被撤銷的可能性。所以我假設——我認為這可能不會在今年發生，但可能會在幾年後發生。你們只是假設一年前建立的 DTA 結構不會有任何變化？

So yes, Elyse, from an accounting perspective, it's based on Bermuda law, and Bermuda law isn't expected to change. I mean if it changes, we'd have to look at it. OECD came out with some administrative guidance a couple of weeks ago that has to be reviewed and see how it applies. As you may have seen, the new administration has come through with saying they're not going to participate in the global minimum tax OECD and are advocating on that basis.

所以是的，Elyse，從會計角度來看，它是基於百慕達法律，而且百慕達法律預計不會改變。我的意思是如果它發生變化，我們必須注意它。幾週前，經合組織推出了一些行政指導意見，需要進行審查並確定如何應用。正如你可能已經看到的，新政府已經明確表示他們不會參與經合組織的全球最低稅率，並以此為基礎進行倡議。

So we have a sense of where -- we have a very clear sense of where we are for '25 and '26. And one thing we know is, longer term, it's very uncertain, particularly with the new administration along with China, India and some other very large countries not being involved at all as well.

因此，我們對 2025 年和 2026 年的處境有一個清晰的認識。我們知道的是，從長遠來看，情況非常不確定，特別是考慮到新政府以及中國、印度和一些其他非常大的國家根本沒有參與。

And it involves Swiss law.

這涉及瑞士法律。

And Swiss law, yes.

是的，還有瑞士法律。

Yeah, it's messy.

是啊，很亂。

And then I'll throw one in for Evan, right? You guys have been talking about competition in financial lines, right, for some time. And obviously, pulled back there. Do you -- what do you think it takes, I guess, for things to get better there? Or is there something -- are you not expecting conditions, I guess, to change at any point kind of in the near term?

然後我會給埃文扔一個，對吧？你們一直在談論金融領域的競爭，對吧，已經有一段時間了。並且顯然又回到了那裡。您—我想，您認為需要怎麼做才能讓那裡的情況變得更好？或者有什麼——我想，您是否認為近期的情況不會在任何時候發生改變？

I think as losses emerge and renormalizes, that will be an ameliorating factor.

我認為隨著損失的出現和重新正常化，這將是一個改善因素。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的亞龍基納爾 (Yaron Kinar)。

Evan, at the risk of maybe changing your sentiment around the sell-side analysts here so quickly, I do want to go back to something I asked last quarter with regards to North America commercial premium growth, which was 2% on a gross premium basis. I'm just trying to reconcile that with the pricing environment, which is -- seems to be ahead of that, and the opportunities that you're seeing and the appetite that you have. Maybe you can walk us through the puts and takes there.

埃文，冒著這麼快改變你對賣方分析師的看法的風險，我確實想回到上個季度我問到的關於北美商業保險保費增長的問題上，按毛保費計算，北美商業保險保費增長了2%。我只是試圖將其與定價環境相協調，定價環境似乎領先於此，而且您還看到了機會和胃口。也許您可以帶我們了解那裡的情況。

I'm not sure what your -- can you be more clear?

我不確定你的──你能說得更清楚嗎？

Sure. So your premium growth, gross premium growth, was 2%. I think the pricing environment in North America P&C, if we take bits and pieces of the pricing that you offered, is north of that.

當然。因此，您的保費成長率，即毛保費成長率是 2%。我認為，如果我們將您提供的價格部分考慮進去的話，北美財產和意外保險的定價環境是高於這個水平的。

I think you have to start with net premium growth, not gross premium growth.

我認為你必須從淨保費增長開始，而不是毛保費增長。

Why would that be?

為什麼會這樣呢？

Well, because gross premium growth has too many distortions of transactions that we do that, frankly, distort that number, large transactions, where it may be a self-insured program or it's a structured program. And so gross has puts and calls based on the premium flows with our clients.

因為毛保費增長對交易有太多扭曲，我們這樣做，坦率地說，扭曲了這個數字，大額交易，可能是自我保險計劃，也可能是一個結構化計劃。因此，根據我們客戶的溢價流，總看跌期權和看漲期權的總金額是固定的。

If you get to a middle market business, it's more steady. But when you have large account and then you have gross line, even in the E&S business, that's what makes a lot of noise and a lot of difference. You're never going to get there. You have to start at net premiums. Now, I can just tell you that, and I'm giving you that as an explanation, not as -- this is nothing to debate.

如果你進入中型市場，它會更加穩定。但當您擁有大額帳戶並且擁有總業務線時，即使在 E&S 業務中，這也會產生很大的噪音和很大的差異。你永遠也到不了那裡。您必須從淨保費開始。現在，我只能告訴你這一點，我給你的只是一種解釋，而不是——這沒有什麼好爭論的。

Fair enough. And if we take the net premium growth, which was 5%, versus roughly 7% pricing?

很公平。如果我們採用淨保費成長率（即 5%），而定價約為 7%？

Well, it's a mix -- there's a mix of business, there is a retention. It doesn't translate directly. It never does. I mean you start with a retention rate, you then have to add new business, you have to do it line by line, and the mix of it. And so you'll hear overall pricing. But now take overall pricing and you have to adjust for the mix of business. When you're trying to translate to revenue -- if you want offline, we will give you a simple math lesson of that and take you through it.

嗯，這是一種混合——有業務的混合，也有保留的混合。它不能直接翻譯。它從來不會。我的意思是，你從保留率開始，然後必須添加新業務，你必須逐行進行，並將其混合起來。因此您會聽到總體定價。但現在就整體定價而言，你必須根據業務組合進行調整。當您嘗試將其轉化為收入時 - 如果您想要離線，我們將為您提供一個簡單的數學課程並指導您完成它。

Great. I'm always --

偉大的。我總是--

I don't mean a lesson in a bad way. I mean we'll take you through and give you some -- maybe another way to help you think about it.

我並不是用壞的方式教訓你。我的意思是，我們將帶您經歷這一切，並給您一些——也許是另一種方法來幫助您思考它。

Great. Always eager to learn. Thank you.

偉大的。總是渴望學習。謝謝。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將電話轉回給凱倫‧拜爾 (Karen Beyer)，請她作最後發言。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. And if you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thank you.

感謝大家今天的參與。如果您有任何後續問題，我們將隨時接聽您的電話。享受這一天。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。