丘博保險集團 (CB) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jay and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Ltd fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call.

感謝您的耐心等待。我叫傑伊，今天將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 Chubb Ltd 歡迎各位參加 2025 年第四季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Susan Spivak, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁蘇珊·斯皮瓦克 (Susan Spivak) 主持。你可以開始了。

Thank you and welcome to our December 31, 2025 fourth-quarter and year-end earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company's performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

謝謝大家，歡迎參加我們於2025年12月31日舉行的第四季及全年財報電話會議。我們今天的報告將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與公司業績、定價和業務組合、成長機會以及經濟和市場狀況相關的陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。

See our recent. SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplement, which are all available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters. We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

請查看我們最近的報道。有關可能影響這些事項的因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的網站 investors.chubb.com 上的 SEC 文件、收益發布和財務補充文件。我們今天也將提及非GAAP財務指標，這些指標與最直接可比較的GAAP指標的調節表及相關詳情已在我們的盈利新聞稿和財務補充文件中提供。

Now, I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. Then we'll take your questions. Also with us today to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.

現在，我來介紹一下我們的演講嘉賓。首先是董事長兼執行長埃文·格林伯格；其次是財務長彼得·恩斯。接下來我們會回答你們的問題。今天，我們管理團隊的幾位成員也來到現場，協助您解答疑問。

And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

現在我很高興把電話交給艾文。

Good morning. We had an outstanding quarter, which contributed to another record year, demonstrating both the resilience and the broadly diversified nature of our company. We delivered excellent full-year results with strong contributions from virtually all of our businesses. We achieved record earnings for both the quarter and the year.

早安.我們本季業績出色，為公司再創年度紀錄做出了貢獻，這不僅體現了公司的韌性，也展現了公司業務的多元化特徵。我們全年業績優異，幾乎所有業務部門都做出了強勁貢獻。我們實現了季度和年度雙雙創紀錄的利潤。

For the quarter, very strong double-digit increases in underwriting and life income along with record investment income, led to core operating income of nearly $3 billion or $7.52 per share up about 22% and 25%, respectively.

本季度，核保和人壽收入均實現了兩位數的強勁增長，加上創紀錄的投資收入，使得核心營業收入接近 30 億美元，即每股 7.52 美元，分別增長了約 22% 和 25%。

Total company net premiums grew almost 9%, with P&C up 7.7% and life up about 17%. In fact, our company's published growth this quarter was faster than the average for the full year.

公司淨保費總額成長近 9%，其中財產保險成長 7.7%，人壽險成長約 17%。事實上，我們公司本季公佈的成長速度超過了全年平均水準。

In the quarter, our underwriting performance was simply outstanding. P&C underwriting income was $2.2 billion, up 40% with a record-low combined ratio of 81.2%. Our published underwriting results were supported, of course, by low CATs and prior period reserve development, but importantly by very strong current accident year performance from our businesses across the board, including from our agriculture division, where we are the #1 crop insurer in America. Agriculture's outstanding results benefited the quarter's underlying current accident year combined ratio of 80.4% which was nearly 2 points better than prior year and a record low. Importantly, however, excluding agriculture, the Global P&C ex-CAT current accident year combined ratio, reflecting the strength of our businesses from around the globe, was 80.9%, and almost a full point better than prior year and again a record result.

本季度，我們的承保業績非常出色。財產險承保收入為 22 億美元，成長 40%，綜合比率創歷史新低，為 81.2%。當然，我們公佈的承保業績得益於較低的巨災損失和前期準備金的積累，但更重要的是，我們所有業務（包括農業部門）在本事故年度的強勁表現，我們在農業部門是美國排名第一的農作物保險公司。農業的優異表現使本季本年度事故綜合比率降至 80.4%，比去年同期改善近 2 個百分點，創歷史新低。但值得注意的是，剔除農業因素後，全球財產險（不包括巨災）本年度綜合事故率（反映出我們全球業務的強勁勢頭）為 80.9%，比前一年改善了近一個百分點，再次創下歷史新高。

And we had an outstanding quarter on the investment side of our business. We generated record adjustment net investment income of $1.8 billion, up 7.3%. Our fixed income portfolio yield is 5.1%, and our current new money rate averages slightly above that. Our invested asset now stands at $169 billion, up from $151 billion a year ago.

我們在投資業務方面取得了非常出色的季度業績。我們實現了創紀錄的調整後淨投資收益 18 億美元，成長 7.3%。我們的固定收益投資組合收益率為 5.1%，而我們目前的新貨幣利率平均略高於此。我們目前的投資資產為 1,690 億美元，高於一年前的 1,510 億美元。

The more important time frame to me to discuss though is the full year, and what a year we had. We printed record operating income just shy of $10 billion, or $24.79 per share, up about 9% and 11%, respectively, over prior year. For perspective, over the past three and five years, core operating income has grown 55% and over 200%.

不過，對我來說，更值得討論的是整整一年，以及我們經歷的這一年。我們實現了創紀錄的營業收入，接近 100 億美元，即每股 24.79 美元，分別比上年增長了約 9% 和 11%。從這個角度來看，在過去三年和五年裡，核心營業收入分別成長了 55% 和 200% 以上。

All three major sources of income for our company produced record results last year: P&C underwriting income of $6.5 billion was up 11.6% with a record-low combined ratio for the year of 85.7%. Adjusted net investment income rose 9% to almost $7 billion, and life insurance income of $1.2 billion was up over 13%.

去年，我們公司的三大主要收入來源均創下歷史新高：財產險承保收入達 65 億美元，成長 11.6%，年度綜合比率創歷史新低，為 85.7%。經調整後的淨投資收益成長了 9%，達到近 70 億美元，人壽保險收入為 12 億美元，成長超過 13%。

Our record underwriting results and earnings were achieved in spite of full-year CAT losses that were, in fact, higher than prior year, substantially driven by the California wildfires in the first quarter. Though U.S. and worldwide hurricane and typhoon seasons were unusually light this year, annual industry CAT losses still approached $129 billion. By its nature, CAT exposure is volatile. Frequency and severity of losses are alive and well. Fire, flood, cyclonic and earthquake are all perils that contributed to industry CAT losses.

儘管全年巨災損失實際上高於去年，主要原因是第一季加州山火，但我們仍然取得了創紀錄的承保業績和收益。儘管今年美國和全球的颶風和颱風季節異常輕微，但年度產業巨災損失仍接近 1,290 億美元。CAT暴露本質上是不穩定的。損失的頻率和嚴重程度仍然存在。火災、洪水、颶風和地震都是造成工業巨災損失的因素。

For the year, we grew total company premiums over 6.5%, with P&C up about 5.5% and life up over 15%. Per share tangible book value, our most important measure of wealth creation grew 25.7% last year. Peter is going to have more to say about financial items.

今年，公司總保費成長超過 6.5%，其中財產險成長約 5.5%，人壽險成長超過 15%。每股有形帳面價值（我們衡量財富創造的最重要指標）去年成長了 25.7%。彼得也想就財務方面的問題發表更多看法。

Again, our results for both the quarter and the year, top and bottom line, put a point on the broad-based, diversified nature of the company by geography, by product, by commercial and consumer customer segment and distribution channel. It speaks to how well we are positioned both relatively and in absolute terms.

再次強調，我們本季和本年度的業績，包括營收和利潤，都反映了公司在地理、產品、商業和消費者客戶群以及分銷管道方面的廣泛性和多元化性質。這說明無論從相對角度或絕對角度來看，我們都處於非常有利的地位。

Turning to growth, pricing, and the rate environment. P&C premium revenue, again, grew over 7.5% in the quarter, with consumer up almost 12% and commercial up over 6%. Our international P&C and U.S. agriculture business had a particularly strong growth quarter, with premiums up nearly 11% and over 45%, respectively. But we also had strong growth from our U.S. personal lines business and our commercial U.S. middle market and E&S businesses.

接下來談談成長、定價和利率環境。本季財產保險保費收入再次成長超過 7.5%，其中消費者險成長近 12%，商業險成長超過 6%。我們的國際財產險和美國農業險業務在本季實現了特別強勁的成長，保費分別成長了近 11% 和超過 45%。但我們在美國的個人保險業務以及美國中端市場和 E&S 商業業務也實現了強勁成長。

In terms of the commercial P&C underwriting environment, in the fourth quarter, as I said in the last few quarters, the market globally is in transition and growing incrementally more competitive quarter by quarter, particularly large account property admitted and E&S, and upper middle market. Casualty pricing - overall - large account, E&S and middle market - continues to firm in the areas that require rate, and in those that don't, price increases have slowed. Financial lines remain soft with some signs of firming in discrete classes. I will give you some more color on the fourth quarter by division, and I'm going to begin with our international P&C business.

就商業財產險承保環境而言，正如我在過去幾個季度所說，第四季度全球市場正處於轉型期，競爭逐季加劇，尤其是大型財產險承保和超額責任險承保，以及中高端市場。總體而言，意外險定價——大客戶、超額和一般保險以及中端市場——在需要調整費率的領域繼續保持堅挺，而在不需要調整費率的領域，價格上漲速度已經放緩。金融板塊整體依然疲軟，但個別板塊出現走強跡象。我將按部門為大家詳細介紹第四季的情況，首先從我們的國際財產和意外保險業務開始。

Premiums in Overseas General were up 10.8% or over 8% in constant dollars - a very good result. Premiums in our global retail business, which operates in 53 countries and which is 90% of our overseas general division were up 12.5%, with consumer premiums both A&H and personal lines up 18.7% and commercial lines up almost 7.5%. Latin America grew 14.7%, with consumer up almost 18% and commercial up about 10.5%; Asia grew 13%, with consumer up 25% and commercial flat; and Europe grew over 7%.

海外綜合保險的保費上漲了 10.8%，以固定匯率計算上漲超過 8%，這是一個非常好的結果。我們在 53 個國家開展的全球零售業務（占我們海外一般部門的 90%）的保費上漲了 12.5%，其中意外傷害險和個人險的消費者保費上漲了 18.7%，商業險的消費者保費上漲了近 7.5%。拉丁美洲成長了 14.7%，其中消費成長了近 18%，商業成長了約 10.5%；亞洲成長了 13%，其中消費成長了 25%，商業持平；歐洲成長了超過 7%。

In our international retail commercial business, P&C rates were down 3.6% and financial lines rates were down almost 9%. Loss costs remained steady. Premiums in our London wholesale business, which is 10% of our international P&C were down about 1%, given more competitive London open market conditions basically across the board - property, marine, aviation and professional lines.

在我們的國際零售商業業務中，財產險費率下降了 3.6%，金融險費率下降了近 9%。損失成本保持穩定。由於倫敦公開市場競爭更加激烈，基本上所有險種（財產險、海運險、航空險和專業險）的保費都下降了約 1%。倫敦批發業務占我們國際財產保險業務的 10%。

Turning to North America, total P&C premiums were up over 6.5%. Agriculture, again, was up over 45%, predominantly due to the profit-sharing formula with the government. Excluding agriculture, premiums were up 4.7%, including more than 6% in personal lines and 4.3% in commercial, which is made up of middle market, small, E&S and large account divisions.

再來看北美，財產和意外保險總保費上漲超過 6.5%。農業再次成長超過 45%，這主要是由於與政府的利潤分成機制。除農業外，保費上漲了 4.7%，其中個人險上漲超過 6%，商業險上漲 4.3%，商業險包括中端市場、小型、特殊及特殊險和大型帳戶部門。

Breaking U.S. commercial growth down further, premiums in middle market and small commercial grew over 6% with P&C up 7.5% and financial lines up 1.5%. New business for middle market and small was strong, up more than 17% versus prior year.

進一步細分美國商業成長情況，中型市場和小型商業保險的保費成長超過 6%，財產保險成長 7.5%，金融保險成長 1.5%。中小型企業的新業務表現強勁，比上年增長超過 17%。

Premiums in Major Accounts & Specialty grew 3%, with major or large account business up 0.5% in Westchester, our E&S company, up over 7.5%. Major Accounts and for that matter Westchester growth was impacted by property, obviously, and in major we wrote fewer one-off LPT transactions than we did prior year.

主要客戶和特殊客戶的保費成長了 3%，其中大客戶或大型客戶業務在我們的 E&S 公司 Westchester 成長了 0.5%，成長超過 7.5%。大客戶以及威徹斯特郡的成長顯然受到了房地產的影響，而且在大客戶方面，我們單筆 LPT 交易的數量比前一年要少。

Commercial pricing for property and casualty, excluding financial lines and comp was up 4.3%, with rates up 2.5% and exposure change of 1.8%. Property pricing was down 1.5% with rates down 4.6%, partially offset by exposure of 3.3%. Going a step further, property pricing was down over 13.5% in large account business and E&S, and it was up 3.7% in middle market and small commercial. Casualty pricing in North America was up 8.5%, with rates up 7.6% and exposure up 0.8%.

不包括金融險和綜合險的財產和意外傷害商業保險定價上漲了 4.3%，其中費率上漲了 2.5%，風險敞口變化了 1.8%。房地產價格下降了 1.5%，利率下降了 4.6%，但部分被 3.3% 的風險敞口所抵消。更進一步來說，大客戶業務和 E&S 的房地產價格下降了 13.5% 以上，而中端市場和小型商業的房地產價格則上漲了 3.7%。北美地區的意外傷害保險定價上漲了 8.5%，其中費率上漲了 7.6%，風險敞口上漲了 0.8%。

financial lines pricing was down 1.5%, and comp middle market pricing was down just under 1%. Large account risk management pricing was up 6.5%.

金融險種定價下降了 1.5%，而中端市場同類產品定價下降了近 1%。大客戶風險管理定價上漲了 6.5%。

In North America Commercial, again, there was no change to our selected loss cost trends.

在北美商業領域，我們選定的損失成本趨勢同樣沒有改變。

Premiums in North America high net worth personal lines grew over 6%, and homeowners pricing was up over 8.5%.

北美高淨值個人保險保費成長超過 6%，房屋保險保費成長超過 8.5%。

In our international life insurance business, which is fundamentally Asia, premiums were up almost 18% in constant dollars. In North America, premiums in our Chubb worksite benefits business were up over 16.5%. Our life division produced $322 million of pre-tax income in the quarter, up just shy of 20%.

在我們主要面向亞洲的國際人壽保險業務中，保費以不變美元計算上漲了近 18%。在北美，我們 Chubb 工作場所福利業務的保費上漲了 16.5% 以上。本季度，我們的人壽保險部門實現了 3.22 億美元的稅前收入，成長了近 20%。

So in summary, we had a great quarter and a great year, which again speaks to the broadly diversified and global nature of our company. We have many sources of opportunity on both the liability and asset side of the balance sheet. At the same time, we are continuing to invest to improve our competitive profile.

總而言之，我們本季和本年度都取得了巨大的成功，這再次體現了我們公司廣泛多元化和全球化的本質。我們在資產負債表的負債方和資產方都有許多機會來源。同時，我們也在持續投資以提升我們的競爭力。

While early, we're off to a good start in '26, and we're confident in our ability to generate for the year strong growth in operating earnings, and double-digit growth in EPS and tangible book value through the three sources of income, P&C underwriting, investment income and life, though CATS and FX aside.

雖然現在還為時過早，但我們在 2026 年取得了良好的開端，我們有信心透過財產和意外傷害保險承保、投資收益和人壽保險這三大收入來源（不包括 CATS 和外匯），實現全年營業利潤的強勁增長，以及每股收益和有形賬面價值的兩位數增長。

I'll turn the call over to Peter, and then we're going to come back and take your questions.

我將把電話轉給彼得，然後我們再回來回答你們的問題。

Good morning. As you heard from Evan, we concluded the year with an outstanding quarter that produced full year earnings records and all-time highs on our balance sheet, including cash and invested assets exceeding $171 billion and book value of nearly $74 billion. Our exceptional results were supported by $4.2 billion of adjusted operating cash flows in the quarter and $13.9 billion for the year.

早安.正如埃文所說，我們以一個出色的季度結束了這一年，實現了全年盈利記錄和資產負債表歷史新高，其中包括現金和投資資產超過 1710 億美元，賬面價值接近 740 億美元。本季調整後經營現金流達 42 億美元，全年調整後經營現金流達 139 億美元，這些都支撐了我們卓越的業績。

We returned $1.5 billion of capital to shareholders, which contributed to a total of $4.9 billion for the year or about half of our core operating income, including $3.4 billion in share repurchases at an average price of $282.57 per share and $1.5 billion in dividends.

我們向股東返還了 15 億美元的資本，使本年度的資本返還總額達到 49 億美元，約占我們核心經營收入的一半，其中包括以每股 282.57 美元的平均價格回購的 34 億美元股票和 15 億美元的股息。

Book and tangible book value per share, excluding AOCI, grew 3.4% and 4.8%, respectively, for the quarter and 11% and 15.5%, respectively, for the year.

不計其他綜合收益，每股帳面價值和有形帳面價值分別成長了 3.4% 和 4.8%（按季度計算），全年分別成長了 11% 和 15.5%。

Our core operating return on tangible equity and core operating ROE in the quarter were 23.5% and 15.9%.

本季我們的核心營運有形權益報酬率和核心營運淨資產收益率分別為 23.5% 和 15.9%。

Pretax catastrophe losses were $365 million for the quarter, principally from weather-related events split 55% U.S. and 45% international, and $2.9 billion for the year versus $2.4 billion in the prior year.

本季稅前巨災損失為 3.65 億美元，主要來自與天氣相關的事件，其中 55% 來自美國，45% 來自國際；全年損失為 29 億美元，而去年同期為 24 億美元。

Pre-tax prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was favorable $430 million, split 64% short-tail lines and 36% long-tail lines. Our corporate runoff portfolio had adverse development of $162 million, primarily related to our asbestos review which is completed each fourth quarter.

本季我們活躍公司的稅前前期發展為有利的 4.3 億美元，其中 64% 為短期業績，36% 為長期業績。我們的企業清算組合出現了 1.62 億美元的不利發展，主要與我們每第四季完成的石棉審查有關。

Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter and year was 105% and 91%, respectively. Excluding CATs, PPD, and agriculture, our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter and year was 94% and 88%.

本季和本年度的已付成本與已發生成本之比分別為 105% 和 91%。除巨災、生產者財產損失和農業損失外，我們本季和本年度的已付與已發生費用比率分別為 94% 和 88%。

Turning to investments. Our A-rated portfolio increased about $2.7 billion from the prior quarter and $18.1 billion from the prior year. The increase for the quarter and full year reflects strong operating cash flow and positive marks to market, while the year also includes favorable FX, partially offset by shareholder distributions.

轉向投資。我們的 A 級投資組合比上一季增加了約 27 億美元，比去年同期增加了約 181 億美元。本季和全年的成長反映了強勁的經營現金流和積極的市值調整，而本年度還包括有利的匯率，但部分被股東分紅所抵消。

Adjusted net investment income of $1.81 billion was at the top end of our previously guided range, primarily due to strong growth in the invested asset base. For the year, adjusted net investment income grew 9% to $6.9 billion, which included approximately $6 billion or 9% growth from our public fixed income portfolio, and $940 million, or 8.5% growth, from our private investments. We expect adjusted net investment income in the first quarter of 2026 to be between $1.81 billion to $1.84 billion.

經調整後的淨投資收益為 18.1 億美元，處於我們先前預期範圍的上限，這主要是由於投資資產基礎的強勁成長。本年度，經調整後的淨投資收益成長 9% 至 69 億美元，其中包括來自公共固定收益投資組合的約 60 億美元（成長 9%），以及來自私人投資的 9.4 億美元（成長 8.5%）。我們預計 2026 年第一季的調整後淨投資收益將在 18.1 億美元至 18.4 億美元之間。

Our core operating effective tax rate was 18.7% for the quarter and 19.4% for the year, which was slightly below our previously guided range. We expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for 2026 to be in the range of 19.5% to 20%.

本季核心營運有效稅率為 18.7%，全年為 19.4%，略低於我們先前預期的範圍。我們預計 2026 年的年度核心經營有效稅率將在 19.5% 至 20% 之間。

I'll now turn the call back over to Susan.

現在我將把電話轉回給蘇珊。

Thank you, Peter. At this point, we're happy to take your questions. Operator, please queue up the questions

謝謝你，彼得。現在，我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員，請將問題排隊。

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions.(Operator Instructions)

謝謝。現在開放提問環節。 （操作說明）

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，瑞銀集團。

Yeah, thank you. Evan, first question, just looking at the U.S. commercial in North American Commercial Lines business. Your underlying margins have been incredibly consistent and excellent results over the last several years. I'm just wondering, given the current pricing environment, do you think you can sustain those here in 2026?

是啊，謝謝。埃文，第一個問題，就北美商業保險業務而言，我們來看看美國商業保險。過去幾年，貴公司的基本利潤率一直非常穩定，業績優異。我只是想知道，鑑於目前的價格環境，您認為到 2026 年您還能維持這些價格嗎？

Morning, Brian. I don't give guidance, as you know. And on one hand, you have clearly, lines of business where price is not keeping pace with loss cost. And the math naturally works in one direction.

早安，布萊恩。如你所知，我不提供指導。一方面，很明顯，有些業務的價格成長速度跟不上損失成本的成長速度。而且數學運算自然是單向的。

On the other hand, we have a very broad business and mix of business changes, mitigate on the other side. I'm very comfortable with the combined ratios we are publishing, and I do not prognosticate the future, but I do have confidence in underwriting income for this company, growth in underwriting income contributing to that growth in EPS.

另一方面，我們的業務範圍非常廣泛，業務變化也多種多樣，需要從另一個方面加以緩解。我對我們公佈的綜合比率非常滿意，我不預測未來，但我對公司的承保收入有信心，承保收入的成長將促進每股盈餘的成長。

Great, thanks. And then maybe, that's terrific. And then maybe pivot over to the personal lines business. Once again, terrific combined ratios, there's been some press and some regulators talking about excess profit laws and implementing them. I'm just curious your thoughts on that and potential implications for Chubb and this profitability in that business?

太好了，謝謝。也許，那真是太棒了。然後或許會轉型進入個人保險業務領域。再次強調，綜合比率非常出色，一些媒體和監管機構正在討論超額利潤法並考慮實施這些法律。我只是好奇您對此有何看法，以及這對 Chubb 和該業務的盈利能力可能產生的影響？

Yeah. Look, if you measure our personal lines business in the United States over any reasonable period of time, 3, 5, 10 years, it classically runs in the high 80s to up into the low 90s combined ratios, given - and it bounces around given the nature of catastrophe losses, in particular.

是的。你看，如果你衡量一下我們在美國的個人保險業務在任何合理的時間段內（3年、5年、10年），其綜合比率通常在80%以上到90%左右，考慮到巨災損失的性質，這個比率會有波動。

I'm very mindful and more than mindful sympathetic about the issue of affordability in the United States and - but I would be careful when politicians think about that issue of affordability pointing to insurance as a culprit. We intermediate money. We don't print money. For Chubb, loss costs in homeowners are rising around 7.5% to 8% at the moment. Liability on one hand is a strong contributor to that. And we know liability costs in the U.S. overall are rising. Inflation for liability is roughly 9%, 7% to 9% and that's multiples of CPI. That's a problem with litigation. That's not an insurance company problem.

我非常關注美國民眾的負擔能力問題，並且對此深表同情——但是，當政客們在思考負擔能力問題時，如果把矛頭指向保險，我會非常謹慎。我們是資金中介。我們不印鈔票。目前，Chubb保險公司房主的損失成本正以每年約7.5%至8%的速度成長。一方面，債務問題是造成這種情況的重要因素。我們知道，美國的整體責任成本正在上升。負債通膨率約 9%，介於 7% 到 9% 之間，是 CPI 的數倍。這就是訴訟的問題所在。那不是保險公司的問題。

Secondly, and I think more important to homeowners, a large price part of pricing is catastrophes. And those are measured over an extended period.

其次，我認為這對房主來說更重要的是，價格中很大一部分是災害造成的損失。而且這些指標都是在較長的時間內測量。

As you know, you could have a two-year period where you have huge outsized CATs, and you lose money in that state. On the other hand, you could have a quiet period. And it looks like you made money. You measure it over an extended period. And for homeowners, admitted homeowners in particular, prices are filed and they get approved based upon technical actuarial.

如你所知，可能會有長達兩年的時間，期間出現巨額巨災，你會因此蒙受損失。另一方面，你可能會有一段平靜期。看來你賺到錢了。你需要在較長一段時間內進行測量。對於房主，特別是已登記的房主，價格需要提交審核，並根據精算技術獲得批准。

So I would be careful of politicizing the affordability question, and as you point to, homeowners insurance where it's going to create ultimately an availability problem and that will exacerbate affordability.

因此，我認為應該謹慎對待住房負擔能力問題，正如你所指出的，住房保險最終會造成供應問題，這將加劇住房負擔能力問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

鮑勃·黃，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. I'm a sucker for overseas business, so I'd like to ask a question on that. Clearly, the growth in Latin America and in Asia are very strong in Latin America, Mexico has been consistently called out as a very much a favorable environment. Maybe can you give us a little bit of color outside of Mexico in Latin America in terms of what is the opportunity there? And what is the growth momentum there?

您好，早安。我對海外業務很有興趣，所以我想問一個相關的問題。顯然，拉丁美洲和亞洲的成長非常強勁，尤其是在拉丁美洲，墨西哥一直被認為是一個非常有利的環境。您能否為我們介紹墨西哥以外的拉丁美洲地區有哪些機會？那裡的成長勢頭如何？

Yeah. It's more in our consumer than in our commercial businesses. We have, as I'm sure you know, Banco de Chile, largest bank in Chile is our long-term partner for distribution of consumer-based insurance as an example. Nubank is our partner in Brazil for digitally distributed insurance, consumer insurance. In Ecuador, we are partners with Banco Guayaquil, one of the biggest banks in Ecuador for distribution of the consumer insurances, you get the picture.

是的。這種情況更多地出現在我們的消費者群體中，而不是我們的商業領域。如您所知，智利最大的銀行智利銀行是我們長期的合作夥伴，我們與該銀行合作分銷以消費者為基礎的保險產品。Nubank 是我們在巴西的合作夥伴，提供數位化分銷保險和消費者保險服務。在厄瓜多爾，我們與厄瓜多爾最大的銀行之一——瓜亞基爾銀行（Banco Guayaquil）合作分銷消費者保險，你應該明白我的意思了。

And in Argentina, we have actually a very good business growing in both consumer and commercial. While commercial is good in Mexico and Brazil, to a degree in Chile and Colombia, it's the consumer businesses with multiple distributions, A&H, specialty, personal lines and automobile on both a direct-to-consumer through bank and other distribution, digitally based direct-to-consumer, and broker and agent driven.

在阿根廷，我們的業務實際上發展得非常好，無論是在消費領域還是商業領域。雖然商業保險在墨西哥和巴西表現良好，在智利和哥倫比亞也有一定的發展空間，但真正重要的是擁有多種分銷渠道的消費者業務，包括意外傷害和健康險、特殊險種、個人險和汽車險，這些業務既包括透過銀行和其他分銷渠道直接面向消費者的銷售，也包括基於數位技術的直接面向消費者的銷售，以及經紀人和代理人驅動的銷售。

Our Mexico business predominantly is agent-driven growth. Though we are the exclusive insurance partner long term of Banamex and with the sale of Banamex right now from - by CitiGroup to a local Mexican management, I expect that that's going to be another growth opportunity. So it's very broad-based. It's across a variety of countries, and we've been at it for years.

我們在墨西哥的業務主要依靠代理商來推動成長。雖然我們是 Banamex 的長期獨家保險合作夥伴，但隨著 Banamex 目前從花旗集團出售給墨西哥當地管理公司，我預計這將是另一個成長機會。所以它的基礎非常廣泛。它遍及多個國家，而且我們已經從事這項工作多年了。

Really appreciate that. It sounds like a lot of opportunities without us worry about pricing. Maybe the second point, staying on overseas, Asia business, clearly, another area of excitement, but can you maybe give us a little bit of the competitive dynamics there, right? You made an acquisition here this year. Just curious about how we should think about an area where everyone is excited about it. And clearly, everyone wants a piece of that pie, so to speak.

非常感謝。聽起來有很多機會，而且我們不用擔心價格問題。第二點，繼續談到海外，特別是亞洲業務，顯然，這是另一個令人興奮的領域，您能否向我們介紹那裡的競爭動態？你今年在這裡進行了一筆收購。我只是好奇，對於一個大家都很感興趣的領域，我們該如何看待它。顯然，每個人都想從中分一杯羹。

Yeah. First, I want to just, so we stay grounded in reality. When you think about Asia, when you think about Latin America, Asia, dwarfs Latin in American in its size and scale and the opportunity, both regions though, are developing market and mature market regions. And they have that signature about them. So a certain volatility to economic and political growth. It's many, many countries in Asia, small micro markets and large markets. But there is a certain volatility in any period, one period to another that can occur. The trend line for both regions is up and Asia in particular. Growth this quarter in Asia, as you saw, came fundamentally from consumer lines, commercial lines was flat.

是的。首先，我只想說，這樣我們才能腳踏實地。當你想到亞洲，當你想到拉丁美洲，亞洲的規模和機會都遠遠超過拉丁美洲，儘管這兩個地區都是發展中市場和成熟市場。他們身上都有那種獨特的氣質。因此，經濟和政治成長存在一定的波動性。亞洲有許多國家，既有小型微型市場，也有大型市場。但任何時期都存在一定的波動性，不同時期之間可能會出現波動。兩個地區的趨勢線均為上升趨勢，尤其是亞洲。正如你所看到的，本季亞洲的成長主要來自消費品領域，商業領域則持平。

That's mostly the large account business, Australia, Singapore based, Hong Kong a little bit where the environment is more competitive.

這主要是大客戶業務，主要集中在澳洲、新加坡，香港也有一部分，因為那裡的競爭環境更激烈。

Our growth is in small and middle market commercial and in consumer lines, both agency and digitally and direct-to-consumer-oriented. Market by market, it is very hard to compete in that business for anybody to just come in and want a piece of that pie. It's a lot of countries, every culture is different. They're economically different. They're small markets, many of them like Southeast Asia, but they add up in aggregate to be a big region it's hard work, and you have to establish yourself, not with one office and two or three underwriters, you've got to have broad capability distributed through the country to be able to mine the opportunity of small and mid-market commercial and consumer.

我們的成長主要體現在中小型市場商業和消費品領域，包括代理商、數位和直接面向消費者的通路。從各個市場來看，在這個行業裡競爭非常激烈，任何人都很難輕易進入並分一杯羹。國家很多，每個國家的文化都不同。它們在經濟上存在差異。這些市場規模都很小，很多都像東南亞一樣，但加起來就是一個很大的區域。這很不容易，你必須站穩腳跟，不能只靠一個辦事處和兩三個承保人，你必須擁有遍布全國的廣泛能力，才能挖掘中小市場商業和消費市場的機會。

So it's years of hard yards to build local franchises in those operations. And then on top of it, the ability to bring your technology and bring your data and your insights to bear from what you have and the scale around the globe to help your competitive profile in those markets, that is another dimension. And that's what we're hard at work at and it shows results and I'm bullish on the long-term opportunity. Any one period of time notwithstanding.

因此，在這些業務中建立本地特許經營權需要多年的艱苦努力。此外，能夠利用你擁有的技術、數據和洞察力，以及你在全球範圍內的規模優勢，來提升你在這些市場的競爭力，這又是另一個層面。這就是我們正在努力的方向，而且已經取得了成果，我對長期發展前景非常樂觀。任何特定時段均不影響上述內容。

Got it. I really appreciate the color. Thank you very much.

知道了。我非常喜歡這個顏色。非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks, good morning, Evan, maybe just a follow-up on just on the overseas general insurance business and the consumer lines growth there has been robust, and it looks like that's continued over the last three quarters. Sounds like you feel good about the opportunity and sustaining that. I guess, could you help us think through how that manifests through margins? Because it feels like that's margin accretive, at least over the last few quarters. But I know there are some moving pieces there. with the consumer business, higher expense ratio, lower loss ratios. I'm hoping you can help me think through that.

嘿，謝謝，早安，埃文，我想就海外一般保險業務和消費險業務的強勁增長做個後續說明，而且這種情況似乎在過去三個季度中仍在持續。聽起來你對這個機會以及保持這種狀態都感到很滿意。我想，您能否幫我們思考一下，這如何透過邊距體現出來？因為感覺這樣做能提高利潤率，至少在過去幾季是如此。但我知道這裡面有一些變數。就消費者業務而言，費用率更高，損失率更低。我希望你能幫我理清思路。

Yeah. I can't help you too much that. You're left to your own, to - we each have our hell and you're left with that one. We don't break out the margin by business, we don't break out overseas general consumer versus commercial margins.

是的。在這方面我幫不了你太多。你只能獨自面對自己的痛苦──我們每個人都有自己的地獄，而你只能獨自承受那份痛苦。我們不依業務細分利潤率，也不細分海外一般消費者與商業利潤率。

What I'm going to help you with is simply this. Our A&H, it breaks down between A&H and auto and homeowners and specialty personal lines. Each has their own signature. And by the way, depending on the distribution channel, whether I'm doing it digitally or in a bank direct response, telemarketing, we're doing it through agency brokerage. They have their own signature of acquisition costs and loss ratio.

我能幫你的只有這件事。我們的意外傷害及健康保險，分為意外傷害及健康保險、汽車及房屋保險及特殊個人保險。它們各自都有自己的特色。順便說一下，根據分銷管道的不同，無論是透過數位管道還是銀行直接行銷、電話行銷，我們都是透過代理經紀公司進行的。它們各自具有獨特的收購成本和損失率。

They're reasonably steady businesses. Auto not as steady, obviously as A&H. Our A&H is a large business that is, that a lot of the risk is on the direct marketing side, and we have built capability over many years. We're the number one, when we say we're the number one direct marketer in Asia, that's predominantly A&H business over non-life and life. And it produces a reasonably steady and decent underwriting margin.

它們都是比較穩定的企業。自動擋不如A&H穩定，這一點顯而易見。我們的A&H業務規模龐大，因此許多風險都集中在直接行銷方面，而我們多年來也累積了這方面的能力。我們確實是第一名。當我們說我們是亞洲第一的直銷商時，這主要指的是意外傷害和健康險業務，而不是非人壽保險和人壽保險業務。而且它還能產生相當穩定且可觀的承保利潤率。

Beyond that, I'm confident in our mix of business overall between large accounts, middle and small and our consumer businesses internationally that our margins are, how do I want to say it. They are, they are not predictable because it's the risk business, but they are decent, as you see, and we feel confident in them.

除此之外，我對我們整體的業務組合充滿信心，包括大客戶、中小型企業以及我們在國際上的消費業務，我們的利潤率，該怎麼說呢？它們確實不可預測，因為這是風險產業，但正如你所看到的，它們還不錯，我們對它們充滿信心。

Got it, thanks. I appreciate that. And then, maybe.

明白了，謝謝。我很感激。然後，或許會。

I know you wanted more, but we just don't break it down that way.

我知道你想要更多，但我們不能那樣分解。

I had to try. But I guess, just maybe a bigger picture question. The December presentation showed about 150 basis points of combined ratio improvement from the digital transformation over the next three to four years and I'm not asking for formal guidance here. But could you just share how you're thinking about the key drivers and execution priorities to deliver on that improvement even as the competition in some of the markets you operate in intensifies?

我必須試一試。但我想，這或許是一個更宏觀的問題。12 月的報告顯示，未來三到四年內，數位轉型將使綜合比率改善約 150 個基點，我在這裡並不是要求正式的指導意見。但您能否分享一下，在您所經營的某些市場競爭日益激烈的情況下，您是如何考慮實現這項改進的關鍵驅動因素和執行重點的？

Yeah. Most of it is on the expense side. It is in both OpEx and in cost of claims. It is, there is some that is, but it is more, much more minority, that is projected in loss ratio, but we're fact-based people. And so as we see more, know more that we can measure mathematically, we gain more confidence in that portion in the insight.

是的。大部分都體現在支出方面。它既計入營運支出，也計入理賠成本。確實有一些，但這種情況只佔少數，損失率預測也反映了這一點，但我們是說事實的人。因此，隨著我們看到的、知道的、可以用數學方式衡量的東西越來越多，我們對這部分洞察力也越來越有信心。

And it is business by business, division by division. It's predominantly North America, UK, Europe, and our larger markets of Asia and in Latin America. It is covering, right now, we're focused, in particular, on 9 or 10 very discrete projects that all the businesses are lined up on, the business leaders, our technical team around technology, data, AI, analytics and our operations.

而且是逐一業務、逐部門進行的。主要市場為北美、英國、歐洲，以及我們在亞洲和拉丁美洲等較大的市場。目前，我們特別專注於 9 到 10 個非常具體的項目，所有業務部門、業務領導、我們的技術團隊（圍繞技術、數據、人工智慧、分析和我們的營運）都對此保持著密切聯繫。

And we work it with those who are fully dedicated along with the disciplines and the business leaders to transformation and bringing it all together in how we transform a business in the nine discrete projects across a variety of geographies. Here you go, and it will continue to evolve.

我們與那些全心投入轉型的人員以及各學科和商業領袖合作，將所有這些結合起來，在跨越不同地域的九個獨立項目中實現業務轉型。給你，它還會不斷發展。

Awesome, thank you.

太棒了，謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Greg Peters, Raymond James.

格雷格彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning. So I'm going to have two follow-up questions. One to the overseas operations. I guess I'm going to ask a question around foreign exchange and I realize this is probably going to spill over into geopolitical considerations as it relates to the growth in your operations.

早安.所以我還有兩個後續問題。一是海外業務。我想問一個關於外匯的問題，我知道這可能涉及地緣政治因素，因為這與貴公司業務的成長有關。

But I'm looking, I've been watching the last several weeks, the yen go down relative to the U.S. dollar. And I understand you're matching your assets and liabilities in the same currency. But running a global enterprise, I'm just curious how you look at foreign exchange volatility as it relates to what you're managing in the enterprise risk?

但我一直在觀察，過去幾週以來，日圓對美元一直在下跌。我知道你們的資產和負債都是用同一種貨幣來計價的。但是，作為一家全球性企業，我很好奇您如何看待外匯波動與您在企業風險管理方面所關注的問題之間的關係？

Yeah. We do not hedge revenue or income. The only time we really hedge is remittances around remittances when they're large. Our assets and liabilities are matched in currency, so they move together. Foreign exchange, if the U.S. dollar weakens relatively, that's a tailwind to us in terms of growth, and it obviously helps income in any business generating income.

是的。我們不進行收入或收益對沖。我們只有在匯款金額較大時才會真正進行對沖，也就是對匯款進行避險。我們的資產和負債以相同的貨幣單位計價，因此它們的變動是同步的。外匯方面，如果美元相對走弱，這對我們的成長是有利的，而且顯然有助於任何產生收入的企業增加收入。

And then if the dollar strengthens, which has been its longer-term trend over a long period, we pay that price. And you can see it because we're transparent about it of what are we in constant dollar in terms of growth versus published.

然後，如果美元走強（這在很長一段時間內都是美元的長期趨勢），我們將為此付出代價。你可以看到這一點，因為我們對此保持透明，公開了我們以不變美元計算的成長與已發布數據之間的關係。

And so Greg, that is what it is. Right now, the prognostication is more towards the dollar, at the moment, the dollar weakening as you look forward. But you know what, that sentiment bounces around and changes based upon financial conditions, economic and as you said, geopolitically.

所以，格雷格，事情就是這樣。目前來看，市場更傾向美元，預計美元將走弱。但你知道嗎，這種情緒會隨著金融狀況、經濟狀況以及你所說的地緣政治狀況而波動和變化。

Okay. And then I wanted to follow-up on.

好的。然後我想跟進一下。

And by the way, that's why, that is why, I say that when we talk about any projection about Chubb future income or EPS growth. I do say CATs and FX aside. We're in the risk business. It's not like we can control anything, but we have better control over most things and can forecast. I can't forecast CATs. I can't forecast FX, and I don't have control over them. And it doesn't speak to the intrinsic strength of the business.

順便說一句，這就是為什麼，這就是為什麼，當我們談到對 Chubb 未來收入或每股盈餘成長的任何預測時，我都會這麼說。我說的是，暫且不談CAT和FX。我們從事的是風險業務。雖然我們無法控制所有事情，但我們對大多數事情的控制力更強，而且可以進行預測。我無法預測CAT（航空氣象站）的天氣。我無法預測外匯市場走勢，也無法控制外匯市場。但這並不能說明這家企業本身的實力有多強。

Got it. I think you said in your, the quote was macro conditions notwithstanding, when you talked about your outlook for growth.

知道了。我認為你在談到成長前景時說過，儘管宏觀經濟狀況不佳，但這句話仍然適用。

I said it broadly.

我只是概括地說了一遍。

Correct. Can I go back to the other comments around agentic AI and digital infrastructure. And I guess I want to come at it from a different angle. The large brokers are talking about the build-out of this infrastructure as being a big opportunity. I think Marsh used 2,000 to 3,000 data centers being built over the next couple of years.

正確的。我可以回到之前關於智能體人工智慧和數位基礎設施的評論嗎？我想換個角度來看這個問題。大型經紀商認為，這項基礎設施的建設是一個巨大的機會。我認為 Marsh 利用了未來幾年內建造的 2000 到 3000 個資料中心。

And so I guess, I wanted to approach it from a couple of different angles. How do you see that evolving and Chubb's participation in that? And I guess there's also an investment opportunity, too, that Chubb might be looking at. So I'm just looking for how you're looking at the different touch points of this emerging trend and how it's going to impact your organization?

所以我想，我想從幾個不同的角度來探討這個問題。您認為這種情況會如何發展，以及 Chubb 將如何參與其中？而我猜想，這其中也可能有投資機會，Chubb 或許正在考慮這個問題。所以我想了解您如何看待這個新興趨勢的不同接觸點，以及它將如何影響您的組織？

Yeah. On the insurance side, we're all over it. We've been writing data centers, and we, globally, this is a global opportunity. And we're, our capabilities are extremely broad. We're in a rare group when it comes to capability. Builder's Risk, operations in terms of property. And we write the primary property. We do the engineering.

是的。在保險方面，我們全力以赴。我們一直在撰寫有關資料中心的文章，而且在全球範圍內，這是一個全球性的機會。而且，我們的能力非常廣泛。就能力而言，我們屬於少數群體。建築商風險，涉及房地產運營。我們寫出主要屬性。我們負責工程設計。

We have large capacity we put at it. And others take shares behind us generally. We can do that on a global basis. Marine and all of the related exposures around that, surety, liability professional lines when it comes to design of data centers.

我們投入了大量資源。其他人通常會跟在我們後面。我們可以在全球範圍內做到這一點。海洋及所有相關風險，以及資料中心設計的擔保、責任保險和專業責任保險。

We are one of the few that writes insurance around the broad variety of exposures globally that those who are constructing data centers confront. We have recently, obviously, with all of the investment that is going into this, and by the way, on the utility and energy side, we are a major writer and no one is building a major data center without the energy and utility dimension of this, and we can seamlessly transition to that in coverage as well.

我們是少數幾家能夠為全球資料中心建立者面臨的各種風險提供保險的公司之一。顯然，最近我們投入了大量資金，順便說一句，在公用事業和能源方面，我們是主要的撰稿人，沒有人會在不考慮能源和公用事業因素的情況下建造大型數據中心，我們也可以在報道中無縫過渡到這方面。

With all the investment that is going in our, inside our organization, we have doubled down on how we are structured to bring all of the coverages, the services and engineering, the teams together to approach this globally or an important were an important factor when Aon and Marsh and other major brokers are engaged in the creation and putting together in placement of data centers.

鑑於我們組織內部投入的所有投資，我們加倍努力改進組織架構，將所有保險、服務和工程團隊整合起來，在全球範圍內解決這個問題。這對於安聯、Marsh 和其他主要經紀商參與資料中心的創建和部署而言，是一個重要的因素。

The one thing I would say about this right now, there's a lot of projects announced, there, how much of this actually gets built and over what period of time remains a question. There are headwinds. Theres headwinds around availability and affordability of energy to power data centers. That is a rising and growing problem. How fast does that get addressed? And for each data center, it's a different answer depending on where they're located.

關於這一點，我現在想說的是，雖然宣布了很多項目，但其中有多少項目能夠真正建成，以及需要多長時間才能建成，仍然是一個問題。有逆風。資料中心所需的能源供應和價格負擔能力都面臨挑戰。這是一個日益嚴重的問題。這個問題多久能解決？對於每個資料中心來說，答案都不同，這取決於它們所處的位置。

There's more pushback on where data centers will be built. There is the question of labor. And is labor available for the construction of data center? Supply, and the supply chains and the cost of supply are questions that hang out there. So, there's a lot announced. We're all focused on it. But I'd be careful not to be overly breathless about this.

資料中心選址方面存在較多阻力。還有勞動力問題。資料中心建置所需的勞動力是否足夠？供應、供應鏈和供應成本都是懸而未決的問題。所以，有很多事情已經公佈了。我們都專注於此。但我建議你不要對此過度激動。

On the question on the invested asset side. Some of, this is a great technology that we are creating for economic and mankind purposes in so many great ways. There are trillions of dollars being poured in. I have no doubt that some of it is going to produce good returns. Some is going to produce more anemic returns and, some may not prove to be any good.

關於投資資產方面的問題。我們正在創造的這項技術非常偉大，它以多種方式造福經濟和人類。數萬億美元正湧入。我毫不懷疑其中一些投資將會帶來良好的回報。有些投資的回報會比較微薄，有些投資可能根本沒用。

Both on the technology development side and on the infrastructure to support the technology, i.e., data centers, et cetera. As an investor, we are thoughtful and very cautious around this. I think there'll be a second act down the road that may be a very interesting investment opportunity, and I'll leave it at that.

無論是在技術開發方面，還是在支援該技術的基礎設施方面，例如資料中心等等。作為投資者，我們對此深思熟慮，非常謹慎。我認為未來還會出現第二階段，這可能是個非常有趣的投資機會，我就說到這裡吧。

Thanks for the detail.

謝謝你提供的詳細資訊。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor Fitzgerald.

Ryan Tunis，Cantor Fitzgerald。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. So Evan, I guess just a follow-up on that question from Greg. GDP growth has been, I'm just trying to think about how economic growth maps to growth if you're looking for insurance growth opportunities.

嘿，謝謝。早安.所以艾文，我想就格雷格的這個問題再補充一點。GDP成長一直不錯，我只是想思考一下，如果你正在尋找保險業的成長機會，經濟成長與成長之間是如何關聯的。

And obviously, a lot of the GDP growth we've seen has sort of come from this AI infrastructure build-out. As someone looking for growth opportunities in P&C, are you agnostic as to where the growth comes from? Or is, would you actually prefer the GDP growth to be coming from more traditional means such as growth in employment?

顯然，我們看到的許多 GDP 成長都來自於人工智慧基礎設施的建設。作為一個在財產和意外保險領域尋求發展機會的人，你是否並不在意發展機會來自哪裡？或者，您更希望 GDP 成長來自就業成長等更傳統的途徑？

Ryan, when GDP growth, if it's overly concentrated, it is more vulnerable. It is more, it is potentially more volatile. Broader-based growth by definition is more stable. And it creates more broad-based prosperity. That impacts both commercial and consumer.

瑞安，當GDP成長過於集中時，它就更容易受到衝擊。它更多，也可能更不穩定。從定義上講，基礎更廣的成長更為穩定。它能創造更廣泛的繁榮。這會對商業和消費者都產生影響。

So, just as a businessman, as a citizen, I would say that to you. When it comes to Chubb growing, if we can earn an adequate risk-adjusted return on the growth, I'll take it wherever it's coming from. That's why we're pursuing opportunities in multiple directions.

所以，就以商人、公民的身分來說，我會這樣對你說。就 Chubb 的成長而言，如果我們能夠從成長中獲得足夠的風險調整後收益，無論成長來自哪裡，我都願意接受。這就是為什麼我們要在多個方向上尋求發展機會的原因。

Got you. And then just a follow-up, not looking for guidance, but the acquisition expense ratio in North America commercial. It's kind of an upticking, I think, because of mix in middle market, is that a trend that we should continue to see? Or do you feel like these levels are sort of steady state?

抓到你了。然後還有一個後續問題，不是尋求指導，而是想了解北美商業領域的收購費用率。我認為，由於中端市場組合的多元化，市場呈現上升趨勢，這種趨勢會持續下去嗎？還是你覺得這些水平處於一種穩定狀態？

Be careful with it. In the quarter, a part of it is because an important part is because we wrote less one-off transactions this year in the fourth quarter, LPT business, which type business loss portfolio transfer, which has a very low acquisition ratio to it. Classically a little higher loss ratio. And that impacts it, and that bounces around quarter-to-quarter.

請小心使用。本季業績下滑的部分原因是，今年第四季我們減少了一次性交易，LPT 業務（即虧損組合轉移業務）的收購比例非常低。通常情況下，損失率會略高一些。這會對它產生影響，而且這種影響每季都會波動。

You also have in North America commercial, the yes, middle and small growing faster than major. So that mix shift impacts it on one hand, but the relative size of each varies a little bit quarter-to-quarter. So you got a, it's not just a straight line that way. But that trend in that direction, yes, is clear. And then E&S has been growing faster than major. And that is, by its nature, it's wholesale business as a higher acquisition ratio.

在北美商業領域，中小型企業的成長速度也比大型企業快。因此，這種組合變化一方面會對其產生影響，但另一方面，每季的相對大小也會略有變化。所以，它並不是一條直線。但這種趨勢是顯而易見的。而且，E&S 的成長速度比主要公司還要快。也就是說，從本質上講，批發業務的收購比例更高。

That's helpful. Thanks, Evan.

那很有幫助。謝謝你，埃文。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Matthew Heimermann, Citi Research.

Matthew Heimermann，花旗研究部。

Good morning everybody. First question would be, you had this comment with respect to more favorable January 1 conditions relative to expectations. I just, I was curious what you meant by that, whether that was from a growth standpoint, from a pricing standpoint, geopolitical factors, just would like to better understand what you meant.

大家早安。第一個問題是，您之前曾就 1 月 1 日的情況比預期更為有利發表過評論。我只是好奇你這話是什麼意思，是從成長的角度、定價的角度還是地緣政治因素來看的，我只是想更能理解你的意思。

Yeah. It wasn't geopolitical. January 1, and don't overread it. January 1 is an important date for certain businesses, particularly large account business. It's a very important date in Europe and the UK, very large percentage of the business, particularly it's large account oriented is on the continent and in the UK, January 1.

是的。這並非地緣政治事件。1月1日，不要過度解讀。1月1日對某些企業來說是個重要的日子，尤其是對大客戶企業而言。1 月 1 日是歐洲和英國一個非常重要的日子，很大一部分業務，特別是面向大客戶的業務，都在歐洲大陸和英國。

And so between the US and Europe and the UK, in particular, the large account business, it did better than we, it had a relatively good start because it did better than we had imagined ourselves. That's all. So it said it was a statement of confidence for that business that we're off to a good start.

因此，在美國、歐洲和英國，尤其是大客戶業務方面，它的表現比我們好，開局相對不錯，因為它的表現比我們自己預想的要好。就這樣。所以，這表明我們對這項業務充滿信心，並且我們已經有了一個好的開始。

I appreciate it. I guess, with respect to, one, I appreciate that you actually gave some targets on the investments you're making on the digital side. So thank you for that. I would be curious, though, when you think about the pace at which you're moving on that, how constrained are you at all, if at all, by other stakeholders' constituents, whether they be distributors, customers or service or technology providers?

謝謝。我想，關於第一點，我很欣賞您確實給了一些關於您在數位領域投資的目標。所以，謝謝你。不過，我很好奇，當你考慮你在這方面推進的速度時，你是否受到其他利害關係人（無論是經銷商、客戶還是服務或技術提供者）的限制（如果有的話），程度如何？

Yeah. And by the way, when we did this just they, everyone understand. When I came out in December at the investor dinner to talk about this and to put this up. It's because I'm talking more long term and about intrinsic value creation and competitive profile of the company.

是的。順便說一句，當我們這樣做的時候，大家都明白了。去年十二月，我在投資者晚宴上談到了這件事，並提出了這個建議。這是因為我談的是更長遠的未來，是公司的內在價值創造和競爭優勢。

This is not going to become something that, and it's a long term, and I put it out there on multiple years. So it's not something that is going to start working its way into worksheets or I'm going to start giving quarterly updates of this or this or this. It's missing the whole point. And from time to time, I will give updates that provide a broader insight when someone is thinking about investing in Chubb who is long-term investing.

這不會變成一件短期的事情，這是一個長期的計劃，我已經把它設定為一個多年周期。所以，這不會成為工作表中需要記錄的內容，我也不會開始每季更新這方面或那方面的內容。完全沒抓到重點。我會不時地發布一些更新信息，為那些考慮長期投資 Chubb 的人提供更全面的見解。

And to answer your question, the only place where a distribution partner constrains our ability to implement or to grow is really in our digital business, with digital partners, where how fast given all of their priorities for growing their basic business. Will they pay attention in connectivity, data, analytics, et cetera, and make available for us to be able to do what we do well and that is interest and distribute through their pipeline to customers. That's the only place of significance that comes to mind.

至於你的問題，分銷合作夥伴真正限制我們實施或發展能力的唯一領域，是我們的數位化業務，也就是數位化合作夥伴，考慮到他們發展自身基本業務的優先事項，發展速度會受到限制。他們會專注於連結性、數據、分析等方面，並為我們創造條件，讓我們能夠做我們擅長的事情，那就是吸引客戶，並透過他們的管道將產品分銷給客戶。我能想到的唯一一個有重要意義的地方就是那裡。

Appreciate it. And thank you for that perspective.

謝謝。感謝您提供的這個視角。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

Thank you. Good morning. On asset allocation, you're targeting to raise private from 12% of your investments to 15% over the medium term. I recognize that Schedule BA type of assets, at least for the private equity piece, consumed a lot of risk-based capital. Are you expecting to make that up with diversification credit like as you grow your life business, should I think about those two pieces moving together?

謝謝。早安.在資產配置方面，你們的目標是在中期內將私募投資的比例從 12% 提高到 15%。我意識到，至少就私募股權部分而言，附表 BA 類型的資產消耗了大量的風險資本。你是否希望透過多元化信貸來彌補損失，就像你發展自己的事業一樣？我應該考慮將這兩者結合嗎？

No. Go ahead, Peter. That's a worksheet question. I think we ought to take off-line, but I'm going to let Peter.

不。請繼續，彼得。這是一道練習題。我覺得我們應該下線談話，但我打算讓彼得來決定。

Not specific to life. There is an allocation of PE that goes into life and to in particular, the Asian markets. but it's relatively modest to the overall footprint and what we intend to grow.

並非特指生活。我們會將一部分私募股權投資投入生活領域，特別是亞洲市場。但就整體規模和我們計劃的成長而言，這部分投資相對較少。

They're not, we did not look at them together in diversification. And by the way, we're very mindful both on a statutory and an S&P basis, how much capital each class of alternative draws and we have made statements about how it will be and is accretive to our ROE now and will be as we go forward.

不是的，我們在多元化投資中並沒有將它們放在一起考慮。順便說一句，我們非常關注法定和標普500指數所反映的各類另類投資的資本佔用情況，我們已經發表聲明，說明這些投資現在和將來都會如何增加我們的淨資產收益率。

Okay. I love seeing actual quantified metrics with respect to your AI digital agenda. So my question is actually more on the cultural side. I kind of think of insurance tends to be a tribal culture. What is the reception from your underwriting and claims folks with respect to reinventing how they do business like the transformation piece?

好的。我非常樂意看到你們在人工智慧數位化議程方面給出實際的量化指標。所以我的問題其實比較是關於文化方面的。我覺得保險業有點像部落文化。貴公司承保和理賠部門的人員對於像轉型這樣的業務流程改革有何反應？

Yeah. It's very interesting, Tracy. The comment tribal. I think of every business in any industry, every company that is a good company and is well run. A hallmark of it is its culture. And culture is norms of behavior that all hold in common that they consider important and that forms culture. When I look at Chubb part of our culture is an ability and a willingness to adapt change to be earnest, it's a meritocracy where you're rewarded for what you achieve, we're a highly disciplined organization, the things we intend to do are measurable.

是的。特蕾西，這很有意思。評論帶有部落色彩。我想到任何行業的每一家企業，每家優秀的、管理良好的公司。它的一大特色是它的文化。文化是所有人共同遵守的、他們認為重要的行為規範，這些規範構成了文化。當我審視 Chubb 時，我發現我們文化的一部分是能夠並且願意適應變化，認真對待工作，這是一個精英體制，你的成就將得到獎勵，我們是一個高度自律的組織，我們打算做的事情都是可以衡量的。

It's an organization and behavior that is about accountability. And that we take individual accountability. It's not about some committee. And when I add all that together, and it's a respectful culture. We respect each other. It's not management respecting employees. We're all employees. We're all colleagues and so when we have plans, and they are understood and explained, and we work through them, the vast majority in this organization work hard towards achieving it with an open mind, and we support each other.

這是一種以問責為核心的組織和行為模式。我們要承擔個人責任。這跟某個委員會無關。綜合所有這些因素，這是一種互相尊重的文化。我們互相尊重。這是管理階層不尊重員工的表現。我們都是員工。我們都是同事，所以當我們制定計劃，並且這些計劃得到理解和解釋，我們一起努力實現它們時，這個組織中的絕大多數人都會以開放的心態努力實現它，我們也會互相支持。

It is for many employees, the transformation and we didn't invent this. The digital transformation society is going through and how it's going to impact businesses in economic. Chubb has a great opportunity to be a leader and to be highly relevant, but all of us have to adapt. All of us have to learn skills. All of us have to be flexible. And the majority, I have so much confidence in my colleagues. The vast majority around the globe will put themselves into this. And that is a large part of what gives me confidence.

對許多員工來說，這是一種轉變，而我們並非這種轉變的始作俑者。社會正在經歷的數位轉型及其對經濟企業的影響。Chubb 有很好的機會成為行業領導者並發揮重要作用，但我們所有人都必須適應。我們都需要學習技能。我們都必須靈活變通。而且，我對我的同事充滿信心。全球絕大多數人都會投入其中。而這正是我自信的重要來源之一。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

Good morning. Evan, your commentary around financial lines and workers' comp pricing trends didn't sound that compelling. So it was interesting to me that financial lines net written premium was up 5.4%, workers' comp was up 3.6%, an acceleration from the prior quarters. So I'm wondering what you might be seeing there? Do you think this trend can continue where Chubb is growing in those lines?

早安.埃文，你對金融保險和工傷賠償定價趨勢的評論聽起來並不那麼有說服力。令我感興趣的是，金融險淨保費收入增加了 5.4%，工傷賠償險增加了 3.6%，較前幾季增速加快。所以我想知道你在那裡可能看到了什麼？你認為Chubb在這些領域的成長趨勢會持續下去嗎？

Well, first of all, it bounces around quarter-to-quarter. But I'm going to turn it over to John Keogh to answer that question.

首先，它每季都會有波動。但我將把這個問題交給約翰·基奧來回答。

Andrew, why don't we talk about the financial lines number. This is one that I observed. I think you understand is, one, that's a global number. So we're offering financial lines in a number of markets around the globe, some of which are growing, some of which are shrinking.

安德魯，我們來談談財務數據。這是我觀察到的一點。我想你應該明白，第一，這是一個全球性的數字。因此，我們在全球多個市場提供金融產品，其中一些市場正在成長，而其他市場正在萎縮。

Financial lines also includes everything from public D&O to D&O for private companies, not for profits. It includes all sorts of professional lines for different trade groups and industries. It's employment practices, it's fiduciary coverages, it's fidelity coverages, it's cyber coverages.

金融險種也涵蓋了從上市公司董事及高階主管責任險到私人非營利公司董事及高階主管責任險的所有內容。它涵蓋了不同行業和群體的各種專業產品線。它涉及僱傭行為、信託責任、忠誠保證和網路安全。

So in that number, you're seeing, I think, speaks to the diversity of our business and financial lines and the areas there where we're purposely growing that business because we think we're getting paid adequately for that particular product in that particular market. And there are other places, unfortunately, where we're shrinking. Where a product in a particular market around the globe does not mean a requirement. So that number is an aggregation of the diversity of those businesses.

所以，我認為，從這個數字可以看出我們業務和財務線的多元化，以及我們有意發展這些業務的領域，因為我們認為在特定市場中，我們對特定產品所獲得的報酬是足夠的。遺憾的是，在其他一些地方，我們的規模正在縮小。在全球特定市場銷售某種產品並不代表就一定有需求。所以這個數字就是這些企業多樣性的綜合體現。

To your question in terms of trend, the one thing we did see in the fourth quarter in the financial lines is some green shoots in terms of some areas that do need rate. And I'd call out, particularly in North America, we saw for the first time in many quarters, a slight rate increase on our public D&O book. We saw in transaction liability, pricing terms and conditions, a lot more rational in the fourth quarter than we've seen in the last couple of years. And then employment practices in the US, we're pushing rate across the board because it needs it in that book of business.

關於您提出的趨勢問題，我們在第四季度金融領域確實看到了一些復甦的跡象，尤其是在一些需要利率的領域。尤其在北美，我們許多地區第一次看到，我們的公開董事及高階主管責任險保單費率略有上升。我們看到，第四季的交易責任、定價條款和條件比過去幾年都要理性得多。然後是美國的就業實踐，我們正在全面提高就業率，因為這項業務需要這樣做。

In workers' comp, it was predominantly in middle market and small commercial that had a very good quarter. I'm comfortable because we don't write, we're not a broad-based writer of all industries, all classes and comp. We've been and our signature for many years is, we're selective within the industries and the states within which we write. This quarter was, in particular, a strong quarter. I don't believe it's such a trend. It was a bit opportunistic, but it was very good.

在工傷賠償方面，表現非常好的主要是中型市場和小型商業企業。我感到很自在，因為我們不寫文章，我們不是那種涉獵所有行業、所有階層和所有類型的廣泛寫作者。多年來，我們的特色是，我們對寫作的行業和州都非常挑剔。本季業績尤其強勁。我不認為這是一種趨勢。雖然有點投機取巧，但效果非常好。

Got it. Thank you for that. And then just shifting over to the another outstanding prior period development favorable $268 million. Curious about the casualty piece, commercial auto excess liability. How did that develop? And maybe a little color on accident years, if you could?

知道了。謝謝。然後，讓我們來看看另一個前期發展項目，該項目收益為 2.68 億美元。我對意外傷害險和商業汽車超額責任險這部分很感興趣。這是如何發生的？如果可以的話，能不能稍微描寫一下那些意外發生的年份？

Yeah. We're not going to, we don't break down that way, as you know. And the prior period reserve development in long-tail lines came from the portfolios that we studied in the quarter. Every quarter, we study a different cohort of portfolios for annual deep dive review.

是的。我們不會那樣做，我們不會那樣崩潰，你知道的。而上一期長尾貸款的準備金發展來自我們本季研究的投資組合。每個季度，我們都會選取不同的投資組合進行年度深度審查。

We look provisionally every quarter in all portfolios, but we, in particular, react to those, especially long tail business, where it's part of a quarterly review. And so long tail in the cohorts we reviewed this quarter, they produced a favorable outcome as far as on the go.

我們每季都會對所有投資組合進行初步評估，但我們尤其會對這些投資組合做出反應，特別是長尾業務，因為這是季度審查的一部分。因此，在我們本季審查的隊列中，長尾效應在進展方面產生了有利的結果。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

And that's all the time we have for our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Susan Spivak for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節時間到此結束。現在我將把會議交還給蘇珊·斯皮瓦克，請她致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we will be around to take your calls. Enjoy the day, and thank you again.

謝謝各位今天蒞臨。如果您有任何後續問題，我們隨時為您接聽電話。祝您今天愉快，再次感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。