Barclays PLC (BCS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Barclays Full Year 2022 Results Fixed Income Conference Call. I will now hand you over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director; and Dan Fairclough, Group Treasurer.

歡迎來到巴克萊 2022 年全年業績固定收益電話會議。我現在將您交給集團財務總監 Anna Cross；和集團財務主管 Dan Fairclough。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Fixed Income Investor Call for our 2022 results. I'm joined today by Dan Fairclough, our Group Treasurer. Let me begin with a brief overview of our performance over last year before speaking to a few slides on the capital positioning of risk across our portfolio, given the attention this topic naturally received from our bondholders. I'll then hand over to Dan for his overview of our balance sheet.

大家下午好，歡迎參加我們 2022 年業績的固定收益投資者電話會議。今天，我們的集團財務主管 Dan Fairclough 加入了我的行列。讓我先簡要回顧一下我們去年的業績，然後再用幾張幻燈片介紹我們投資組合中風險的資本定位，因為這個話題自然會受到我們債券持有人的關注。然後，我將交給丹，讓他對我們的資產負債表進行概述。

So beginning with Slide 3. As Venkat and I reported this morning, it was another year of delivery across our businesses with a statutory return on tangible equity of 10.4%. Income growth of 14% outweighed the 6% growth in operating costs, which exclude bank levy and litigation and conduct or L&C. Despite the increase of GBP 1.2 billion in L&C, profit before impairment was up 9%, with a statutory cost income ratio of 67%. This earnings momentum and capital discipline is reflected in the year-end CET1 ratio of 13.9%. The impairment charge for the quarter was GBP 0.5 billion and GBP 1.2 billion for the full year with a loan loss rate of 30 basis points.

所以從幻燈片 3 開始。正如 Venkat 和我今天早上報告的那樣，我們的業務又是交付的一年，有形資產的法定回報率為 10.4%。收入增長 14% 超過了運營成本 6% 的增長，運營成本不包括銀行徵稅、訴訟和行為或 L&C。儘管 L&C 增加了 12 億英鎊，但減值前利潤增長了 9%，法定成本收入比率為 67%。這種盈利勢頭和資本紀律反映在年末 13.9% 的 CET1 比率上。本季度的減值準備為 5 億英鎊，全年為 12 億英鎊，貸款損失率為 30 個基點。

Turning to the next slide for more detail on impairment and the outlook. The forecast baseline macroeconomic variables or MEV, we have used as the full year for modeled impairment are worse than our Q3 and the start of the year. This increased modeled impairment by circa GBP 0.3 billion in the quarter, but we utilized part of the post model adjustment for economic uncertainty as planned to offset this leaving GBP 0.3 billion of the uncertainty PMA.

轉到下一張幻燈片，了解有關減值和前景的更多詳細信息。我們用作建模減值全年的預測基準宏觀經濟變量或 MEV 比我們的第三季度和年初更差。這在本季度增加了大約 3 億英鎊的模型減值，但我們按計劃利用部分模型後調整來應對經濟不確定性，以抵消這留下 3 億英鎊的不確定性 PMA。

Our total impairment allowance at the year-end was GBP 6.2 billion, a slight decrease in the quarter from GBP 6.4 billion but with strong coverage ratios across the portfolios. Given current economics, we would expect the loan loss ratio for full year '23 to be in the 50 to 60 basis point range closer to historical levels. This will be affected by product mix, including planned growth in U.S. cards and by changes in the macroeconomic outlook.

我們年底的減值準備總額為 62 億英鎊，比本季度的 64 億英鎊略有下降，但整個投資組合的覆蓋率很高。鑑於當前的經濟狀況，我們預計 23 年全年的貸款損失率將在接近歷史水平的 50 至 60 個基點範圍內。這將受到產品組合的影響，包括美國卡的計劃增長和宏觀經濟前景的變化。

On Slide 5, we've updated here the metrics we shared in Q3 to illustrate consumer credit quality. In BUK, our growth has been in mortgages, whilst U.K. cards has reduced by around 40% since 2019. We continue to see high levels of repayment in U.K. cards and arrears rates remain stable and low.

在幻燈片 5 中，我們在這裡更新了我們在第三季度分享的指標，以說明消費者信貸質量。在 BUK，我們的增長是抵押貸款，而英國卡自 2019 年以來減少了約 40%。我們繼續看到英國卡的高還款率和拖欠率保持穩定和低位。

Consumer behavior and the risk performance confirms that the quality of the cards book overall has improved, and this is reflected in some reduction in coverage but the ratio is still 7.6% in U.K. cards, with 19.2% coverage of stage 2 balances. We've grown U.S. cards but have maintained strong coverage levels with 8.1% overall and 33.6% stage 2 coverage.

消費者行為和風險表現證實，信用卡賬簿的整體質量有所提高，這反映在覆蓋率有所下降，但英國信用卡的比率仍為 7.6%，第二階段餘額的覆蓋率為 19.2%。我們已經發展了美國卡，但保持了強勁的覆蓋水平，總體覆蓋率為 8.1%，第二階段覆蓋率為 33.6%。

A few comments now on our wholesale risk management. As we have grown share in CIB, we have managed risk carefully. Whilst RWAs in the CIB have grown, the increase year-on-year has been the result of the stronger U.S. dollar and regulatory changes. There was actually a slight decrease from other business-related factors. We also kept tight control on leverage with leverage exposure for the group down year-on-year despite FX and the growth in financing.

現在就我們的批發風險管理髮表一些評論。隨著我們在 CIB 的份額增加，我們謹慎地管理了風險。雖然 CIB 的風險加權資產有所增長，但同比增長是美元走強和監管變化的結果。實際上，其他與業務相關的因素略有下降。我們還嚴格控制槓桿，儘管外彙和融資增長，但集團的槓桿敞口同比下降。

Looking at the wholesale lending risk, CIB loans to customers and banks at amortized costs grew by GBP 18 billion last year or GBP 15 billion, excluding FX. Most of this increase is in lower risk areas of corporate lending, and we've increased the first loss credit protection. Commercial real estate lending as a sector is facing some headwinds in respect of valuation and liquidity.

從批發貸款風險來看，CIB 向客戶和銀行提供的按攤餘成本計算的貸款去年增長了 180 億英鎊，不包括外彙在內增長了 150 億英鎊。大部分增長發生在企業貸款的低風險領域，我們增加了首次損失信用保護。商業房地產貸款作為一個行業在估值和流動性方面面臨一些不利因素。

Total CRE lines across the group are GBP 16.6 billion down year-on-year and just 4% of our total loan book. This is an area where we have taken a cautious approach with U.K. exposure broadly static for a number of years and well collateralized.

整個集團的 CRE 貸款總額同比下降 166 億英鎊，僅占我們貸款總額的 4%。在這個領域，我們對英國的風險敞口多年來基本保持穩定並有很好的抵押品採取了謹慎的態度。

Another topical area is leveraged lending commitments. We have actively managed down pipeline over the last couple of quarters having our syndicate commitments and have taken some marks on remaining positions in the corporate lending income line.

另一個主題領域是槓桿貸款承諾。在過去的幾個季度裡，我們積極管理我們的銀團承諾，並在企業貸款收入線的剩餘頭寸上取得了一些成績。

In summary, we feel confident in our risk management across our lending portfolios and trading businesses and remain very focused in readiness for potential deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.

總之，我們對我們的貸款組合和交易業務的風險管理充滿信心，並且仍然非常關注為宏觀經濟環境的潛在惡化做好準備。

And with that, I'll hand over to Dan for the balance sheet highlights.

有了這個，我將把資產負債表的亮點交給丹。

Thanks, Anna. We ended the year with strong balance sheet metrics, leaving us well positioned for the year ahead. Our CET1 ratio was 13.9%, the MREL ratio was 33.5% and the LCR was 165%. On all these metrics, we are holding prudent headrooms above minimum requirements.

謝謝，安娜。我們以強勁的資產負債表指標結束了這一年，為來年做好了準備。我們的 CET1 比率為 13.9%，MREL 比率為 33.5%，LCR 為 165%。在所有這些指標上，我們保持高於最低要求的審慎餘量。

Beginning with capital on Slide 9. By delivering our target ROCE, we accreted at circa 150 basis points of capital over the year with 31 basis points generated in Q4. Over the quarter, we used capital to invest in the business to manage the impact of the unwind of prior pension arrangements and to accrete the CET1 ratio. We closed the quarter at 13.9%, the top end of our CET1 target range.

從幻燈片 9 的資本開始。通過實現我們的目標 ROCE，我們在一年中增加了大約 150 個基點的資本，其中 4 季度產生了 31 個基點。在本季度，我們使用資本投資於業務，以管理先前養老金安排解除的影響並增加 CET1 比率。我們以 13.9% 的價格結束了本季度，這是我們 CET1 目標範圍的上限。

This morning, we announced a full year dividend of 5p taking the total for 2022 to 7.25p, which is up 20% from the prior year. In addition, we announced a share buyback of GBP 500 million, taking the total buyback for the year to GBP 1 billion.

今天早上，我們宣布了 5 便士的全年股息，使 2022 年的總股息達到 7.25 便士，比上一年增加了 20%。此外，我們還宣布回購 5 億英鎊的股票，使全年回購總額達到 10 億英鎊。

Looking ahead at the first quarter, we expect RWAs to grow as we take advantage of current business opportunities, which are likely to result in a moderation of CET1 ratio. This is a typical capital trajectory for us in the first quarter of the year.

展望第一季度，我們預計 RWA 會隨著我們利用當前的商機而增長，這可能會導致 CET1 比率下降。這是我們今年第一季度的典型資本軌跡。

On this slide, we highlight some of the other moving parts this quarter, including the announced share buyback, the reduction of IFRS 9 transitional release and the completion of the Kensington acquisition. Taking into account these items, the ratio would reduce by circa 40 basis points or to 13.5%.

在這張幻燈片上，我們重點介紹了本季度的一些其他變動部分，包括宣布的股票回購、減少 IFRS 9 過渡版本以及完成對 Kensington 的收購。考慮到這些項目，該比率將減少約 40 個基點或 13.5%。

Turning to the next slide on our capital targets. We continue to have our long-standing capital target of 13% to 14%, and we believe this puts us in a strong position versus our requirements. This slide shows the impact of the reintroduction in December of the U.K. countercyclical buffer, or CCyB, which translated into a circa 40 basis points requirement. Currently, the FPC expects to increase the U.K. CCyB a further percentage point to 2% in July, which will result all other things being equal to another circa 40 basis points increase to our requirements. As mentioned before, these changes have been fully factored into our capital target range.

轉到下一張關於我們的資本目標的幻燈片。我們繼續保持 13% 至 14% 的長期資本目標，我們相信這使我們在滿足我們的要求方面處於有利地位。這張幻燈片顯示了 12 月重新引入英國反週期緩衝 (CCyB) 的影響，這轉化為大約 40 個基點的要求。目前，FPC 預計將在 7 月將英國 CCyB 進一步提高一個百分點至 2%，這將導致所有其他因素等於我們的要求再提高約 40 個基點。如前所述，這些變化已完全納入我們的資本目標範圍。

Turning now to pensions. The primary defined benefit scheme, the U.K. Retirement Fund, or U.K. RF maintains a balanced portfolio following the completion of a multiyear derisking plan. Its strong funding position and well-matched profile helped it to withstand the headwinds in the gilt market in September and October last year.

現在轉向養老金。主要的固定福利計劃、英國退休基金或英國 RF 在完成多年去風險計劃後保持平衡的投資組合。其強大的資金狀況和良好的形象幫助它抵禦了去年 9 月和 10 月英國國債市場的逆風。

As communicated throughout 2022, we accelerated GBP 1.25 billion of deficit reduction contributions in Q4 as a result of the unwind of prior pension arrangements. This had a circa 30 basis points impact in the quarter and was absorbed within our capital plan.

正如整個 2022 年所傳達的那樣，由於先前養老金安排的解除，我們在第四季度加快了 12.5 億英鎊的赤字削減捐款。這對本季度產生了大約 30 個基點的影響，並已納入我們的資本計劃。

We are also pleased to have now concluded the triennial actuarial valuation of the U.K. RF with a GBP 2 billion funding surplus. As a result of this, we have agreed with the pension trustee that we do not need to make any further deficit contributions, which reduces a previously flat capital drag in 2023 of circa GBP 300 million. This robust position has also helped to simplify our future capital planning.

我們也很高興現在以 20 億英鎊的資金盈餘結束了對英國 RF 的三年期精算估值。因此，我們已與養老金受託人達成一致，我們不需要再提供任何赤字供款，這減少了之前持平的 2023 年約 3 億英鎊的資本拖累。這種穩健的地位也有助於簡化我們未來的資本規劃。

Turning to Basel 3.1. We welcome the consultation paper published by the PRA in November, which helps the industry to have better visibility on the potential impacts. Following further analysis, we have revised our estimated day 1 impact of the changes to the lower end of our prior 5% to 10% of RWA guidance pre-mitigation. There remains a lot of work to do in the implementation and we will have more information on the estimated impact in due course and in particular, following the QIS exercise in Q2 and upon publication of the PRA's final rule set.

轉向巴塞爾協議 3.1。我們歡迎 PRA 在 11 月發布的諮詢文件，這有助於業界更好地了解潛在影響。經過進一步分析，我們將我們估計的第 1 天變化影響修改為我們之前 5% 至 10% 的 RWA 指導預緩解的下限。在實施過程中仍有許多工作要做，我們將在適當的時候獲得更多關於估計影響的信息，特別是在第二季度的 QIS 演習之後以及 PRA 最終規則集發布後。

The consultation process concludes at the end of this quarter, and we will continue to discuss with the PRA during this period, areas that we think should be amended, particularly taking into account the equivalent European proposals and those now expected from the U.S. in April.

磋商過程在本季度末結束，我們將在此期間繼續與 PRA 討論我們認為應該修改的領域，特別是考慮到歐洲的等效提案和現在預計美國將在 4 月份提出的提案。

In the CP, we noticed the comment that a review of the Pillar 2A framework is scheduled to take place by 2024 to ensure the additional risks captured in Pillar 1 are not double counted in the existing Pillar 2A framework. This is very important, and we think particularly relevant for a number of areas in the proposals such as operational risk.

在 CP 中，我們注意到評論稱計劃在 2024 年之前對 Pillar 2A 框架進行審查，以確保 Pillar 1 中捕獲的額外風險不會在現有的 Pillar 2A 框架中重複計算。這非常重要，我們認為與提案中的許多領域特別相關，例如操作風險。

Turning to the next slide, which illustrates the structure of our total capital stack. Our total capital position of 20.8% continues to provide a prudent headroom of 410 basis points above the regulatory minimum. You can see on the slide that we hold 3.9% of RWAs in AT1 format, which increased from the prior quarter of 3.8% due in part to the recovery of sterling. The position incorporates headroom to the 2.3% regulatory prescribed level as we explicitly run a buffer for RWA and FX fluctuations.

轉到下一張幻燈片，它說明了我們總資本結構的結構。我們 20.8% 的總資本頭寸繼續提供比監管最低限度高出 410 個基點的審慎淨空。您可以在幻燈片上看到，我們持有 3.9% 的 AT1 格式的風險加權資產，較上一季度的 3.8% 有所增加，部分原因是英鎊的複蘇。由於我們明確為 RWA 和外匯波動設置了緩衝，因此該頭寸包含 2.3% 監管規定水平的淨空。

We also choose to hold some of our total capital requirements in AT1 rather than Tier 2 form given the relative economics and the additional leverage benefit that AT1 provides over Tier 2. We deploy this into liquid balance sheet opportunities in our markets business and monitor the economics carefully to ensure this remains commercially attractive.

考慮到相對經濟性和 AT1 相對於 Tier 2 提供的額外槓桿優勢，我們還選擇以 AT1 形式而不是 Tier 2 形式持有我們的一些總資本要求。我們將其部署到我們市場業務的流動資產負債表機會中並監控經濟性仔細確保這仍然具有商業吸引力。

We also show on the slide the core profile of our HoldCo issued capital instruments. We continue to evaluate all calls using a range of economic factors, including the direct and indirect P&L implications from refinancing and the impact on our broader wholesale funding stack.

我們還在幻燈片上展示了我們控股公司發行的資本工具的核心概況。我們繼續使用一系列經濟因素評估所有電話會議，包括再融資對損益的直接和間接影響以及對我們更廣泛的批發融資堆棧的影響。

On legacy capital, we remain very comfortable with our current position and approach as presented to the Bank of England in our resolvability plans. Over 2022, we have reduced legacy securities by GBP 2.4 billion, which leaves only GBP 1.5 billion remaining, of which GBP 1.4 billion notional continues to qualify as regulatory capital.

在遺留資本方面，我們仍然對我們在可處置性計劃中向英格蘭銀行提出的當前立場和方法感到非常滿意。到 2022 年，我們已將遺留證券減少 24 億英鎊，只剩下 15 億英鎊，其中 14 億英鎊的名義價值繼續符合監管資本的要求。

Moving on to the wider MREL funding stack. As you can see on the slide, we continue to run a prudent MREL position in excessive requirements. This was supported by circa GBP 15 billion of MREL issuance in 2022.

轉向更廣泛的 MREL 資金堆棧。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們繼續在過度要求方面保持審慎的 MREL 立場。這得到了 2022 年約 150 億英鎊 MREL 發行的支持。

This elevated funding level was due to 2 primary factors. Firstly, a sharp rise in interest rates during the year that the book values of our MREL stack decreased. This move did contain some offsets over the year given FX moves as we are a large U.S. dollar issuer.

這種提高的資金水平是由於兩個主要因素。首先，在我們 MREL 堆棧的賬面價值下降的那一年，利率急劇上升。由於我們是一家大型美元發行人，因此這一舉措確實包含了今年的一些抵消措施。

Secondly, the positive market conditions in the second half of the year presented us with the opportunity to derisk our issuance plan for this year with some prefunding. From where we stand today, our MREL funding plan for the remainder of 2023 is circa GBP 10 billion. And as usual, we expect to seek issuance across senior, Tier 2 and AT1 in a range of currencies.

其次，下半年積極的市場狀況為我們提供了通過一些預籌資金來降低今年發行計劃風險的機會。從我們今天的立場來看，我們 2023 年剩餘時間的 MREL 資助計劃約為 100 億英鎊。和往常一樣，我們希望尋求以一系列貨幣發行高級、二級和 AT1 債券。

Let me turn to Slide 15 to talk about our liquidity position in more detail. The liquidity pool of GBP 318 billion and our Pillar 1 LCR of 165% represents GBP 117 billion surplus to minimum requirements. We have also disclosed our net stable funding ratio, which was 137% and well above the 100% requirement. This reflects the long-standing prudent approach we take in managing our funding profile with access to a diverse range of stable funding sources. This, of course, includes our deposits, which grew circa GBP 20 billion over the year.

讓我轉到幻燈片 15 來更詳細地談談我們的流動性狀況。 3180 億英鎊的流動資金池和我們 165% 的支柱 1 LCR 代表 1170 億英鎊的盈餘達到最低要求。我們還披露了我們的淨穩定資金比率，為 137%，遠高於 100% 的要求。這反映了我們在管理我們的資金狀況時採取的長期審慎方法，並獲得了各種穩定的資金來源。這當然包括我們的存款，該存款在過去一年中增長了約 200 億英鎊。

In the last quarter, deposit balances reduced by GBP 16 billion due to seasonal fluctuations in corporate deposits. However, removing the seasonality that underlying total deposit volumes are stable. We continue to monitor deposit balances closely as an important indicator of potential consumer stress, but we're not currently observing evidence of this.

上季度，由於企業存款季節性波動，存款餘額減少160億英鎊。然而，除去潛在總存款量穩定的季節性因素。我們繼續密切監控存款餘額，將其作為潛在消費者壓力的重要指標，但我們目前沒有觀察到這方面的證據。

Turning to Slide 16. The structural hedge program continues to be a key provider of net interest benefit to the group and has grown by circa GBP 35 billion over the year, albeit it reduced modestly in Q4. The interest rate sensitivity chart shows, the program is a major contributor to income benefit from rising rates, particularly in the outer years and the Q4 hedge contribution has almost doubled year-on-year. The reinvestment rates on the hedge are still well above the average rate and the maturing rate. And therefore, we expect a significant further tailwind from rate rises even if the hedge size reduces further due to product switching dynamics.

轉到幻燈片 16。結構性對沖計劃仍然是集團淨利息收益的主要提供者，儘管在第四季度略有下降，但全年增長了約 350 億英鎊。利率敏感性圖表顯示，該計劃是利率上升帶來的收入收益的主要貢獻者，尤其是在外部年份，第四季度的對沖貢獻同比幾乎翻了一番。對沖的再投資利率仍遠高於平均利率和到期利率。因此，即使由於產品轉換動態而進一步減少對沖規模，我們預計加息也會帶來顯著的進一步推動。

Turning to credit ratings on Slide 17. Improving our credit ratings continues to be a key strategic priority, and we maintain an active dialogue with all the agencies. Through this engagement, we were delighted that Moody's placed Barclays PLC on review for upgrade at the end of the year. As I stated time lines, we expect another ratings committee soon to conclude the results of the review.

轉向幻燈片 17 上的信用評級。提高我們的信用評級仍然是一個關鍵的戰略重點，我們與所有機構保持積極對話。通過這次合作，我們很高興穆迪在年底將 Barclays PLC 列入升級審查名單。正如我所說的時間表，我們預計另一個評級委員會很快就會得出審查結果。

Converting our positive outlook with S&P to an upgrade continues to be a priority, too. We know that whilst the group is on review for upgrade with Moody's, our main subsidiary, Barclays Bank PLC, which accounts for 80% of the group's balance sheet is on negative outlook, which has caused some confusion in the market. The negative outlook reflects sector-wide action by Moody's following the U.K. software ratings outlook being placed on negative and U.K. operating subsidiaries with an active government support will mechanistically also placed on negative. We would highlight Moody's own published comment on the specific case of Barclays, which notes, should the group be upgraded following the review for upgrade, it would be expected for this to neutralize the negative outlook for Barclays Bank PLC.

將我們對標準普爾的正面展望轉變為升級仍然是當務之急。我們知道，雖然該集團正接受穆迪的升級審查，但佔該集團資產負債表 80% 的我們的主要子公司巴克萊銀行 PLC 的展望為負面，這在市場上造成了一些混亂。負面展望反映了穆迪在英國軟件評級展望被置於負面之後的整個行業行動，並且在政府積極支持下的英國運營子公司也將機械地置於負面。我們要強調穆迪自己發表的關於巴克萊銀行具體案例的評論，該評論指出，如果該集團在升級審查後升級，預計這將抵消巴克萊銀行 PLC 的負面前景。

Let me finish with an update on the sustainable impact capital portfolio. This program is housed in treasury within the principal investments business with a growth stage, equity investing and portfolio management capability sits. This is a global mandate to invest in climate tech start-ups. And in December, we announced that we were significantly increasing our commitment from GBP 175 million by 2025 to GBP 500 million by 2027. The portfolio currently stands at GBP 89 million.

讓我以可持續影響力資本組合的最新情況作為結束。該計劃位於主要投資業務的財務部門，具有成長階段、股權投資和投資組合管理能力。這是投資氣候技術初創企業的全球授權。去年 12 月，我們宣布將我們的承諾從 2025 年的 1.75 億英鎊大幅增加到 2027 年的 5 億英鎊。投資組合目前為 8900 萬英鎊。

We seek to invest in start-ups that are enabling transition within carbon-intensive sectors particularly where we have meaningful client exposure, such as energy and power, real estate, transport. This synergistic approach in turn, helps us support clients as they transition to a low-carbon economy through introductions to inhibitive technologies.

我們尋求投資於能夠在碳密集型行業實現轉型的初創企業，尤其是在我們擁有重要客戶的領域，例如能源和電力、房地產、運輸。這種協同方法反過來幫助我們支持客戶通過引入抑制技術向低碳經濟過渡。

And so to summarize, we were pleased to deliver strong and stable metrics across our balance sheet, and we continue to support the group's execution of our strategy as we navigate a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

總而言之，我們很高興在我們的資產負債表中提供強大而穩定的指標，並且在我們應對充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟背景時，我們將繼續支持該集團執行我們的戰略。

And with that, I'll hand back to Anna.

有了這個，我會交還給安娜。

Thank you, Dan. We would now like to open the call up to questions, and I hope you have found this call helpful. Operator, please go ahead.

謝謝你，丹。我們現在想打開問題的電話，我希望你發現這個電話有幫助。接線員，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Lee Street from Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Lee Street。

I have 2, please. Firstly -- and obviously, there was a bit of a fall in risk-weighted assets in the fourth quarter. Any commentary on how you might expect risk-weighted assets to evolve over the course of 2023, please? And secondly, you highlighted your -- the healthy position of the pension fund at the moment. Have you given any consideration or is there any scope to do some form of buyout or even partial buy to effectively remove the future risk associated with that at all? And is that possible? That would be my 2 questions.

我有 2 個。首先 - 顯然，第四季度風險加權資產略有下降。請就您對風險加權資產在 2023 年的發展情況的預期有何評論？其次，您強調了目前養老基金的健康狀況。您是否考慮過或是否有任何範圍進行某種形式的買斷甚至部分購買以有效消除與之相關的未來風險？那可能嗎？那將是我的兩個問題。

Lee, nice to talk to you. And I'll take the first part of that, and then I'll hand over to Dan for the pension part. Q4 was somewhat of a life point in terms of RWA, the few things going on in there. We clearly saw an FX move in the quarter. We saw also -- or we called out the reduction that we've taken in terms of our leveraged finance portfolio and actually market activity, not just us, but more broadly, was pretty low going into the end of the quarter.

李，很高興和你交談。我會承擔其中的第一部分，然後我會把養老金部分交給 Dan。就 RWA 而言，第四季度在某種程度上是一個生命點，那裡發生的一些事情。我們清楚地看到本季度的外匯走勢。我們還看到了——或者我們指出，在我們的槓桿融資組合和實際市場活動方面，我們已經採取了減少措施，不僅是我們，而且更廣泛地說，到本季度末，市場活動非常低。

Conversely, Q1 tends to be our seasonal high point of RWAs. So you are going to see us lean into that opportunity and put some RWAs to work in the markets business over the next quarter. We called that out, I think, in our results. And that's why we've been really thoughtful about getting to the midpoint as a pro forma in terms of capital.

相反，第一季度往往是我們 RWA 的季節性高點。因此，您將看到我們抓住這個機會，並在下個季度將一些風險加權資產用於市場業務。我認為，我們在結果中指出了這一點。這就是為什麼我們一直非常考慮將資本作為備考的中點。

Beyond that, I would say we will pursue growth opportunities as we see them but would do so in a really disciplined way that you've seen us grow U.S. cards. But each business is generating a strong rate and actually generating capital for itself. But we're also mindful of the macroeconomic environment. We haven't seen any procyclicality yet, but we are very much looking out for it. So I'd expect to see us grow back to a Q1 peak. Thereafter, I would see probably more balanced growth across the portfolio, but just mindful of the environment.

除此之外，我會說我們將在我們看到的情況下尋求增長機會，但會以一種非常有紀律的方式這樣做，就像你看到我們發展美國名片一樣。但每家企業都在產生強勁的利率，並實際上為自己創造資本。但我們也注意到宏觀經濟環境。我們還沒有看到任何順週期性，但我們非常關注它。所以我希望看到我們重新回到第一季度的高峰。此後，我可能會看到整個投資組合的增長更加均衡，但要注意環境。

Lee, I'll pick up the second question. Look, we're always considering options, but the principal strategy here is one of derisking, and this has been a multiyear journey really since structural reform. We've been working with the trustee to derisk the pension fund position. And this has involved derisking the asset composition matching it better against liabilities. And you'll also note in the annual report, we've also undertaken some longevity hedging to further reduce the risk. So I think we would expect to continue that strategy really of derisking to ensure that the pension fund does not have a material impact on us going forward.

李，我來回答第二個問題。看，我們一直在考慮各種選擇，但這裡的主要策略是降低風險，這是自結構改革以來的多年旅程。我們一直在與受託人合作，以降低養老基金頭寸的風險。這涉及降低資產組合與負債更好匹配的風險。你還會在年度報告中註意到，我們還進行了一些長壽對沖以進一步降低風險。因此，我認為我們希望繼續實施真正降低風險的策略，以確保養老基金不會對我們的未來產生重大影響。

Our next question comes from Robert Smalley from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robert Smalley。

Some questions around credit cards, both U.K. and U.S. I see that stage 2 has in the U.S. is up a little bit. Stage 2 for the U.K. over the past couple of years down. When -- could you talk about your methodology about moving cards from stage 1 to stage 2? One of your competitors did some of that on a discretionary basis. So if I could get a little background on your methodology there, number one. And then number two, where do you see this going over the next year, given economic slowdown?

有關英國和美國信用卡的一些問題，我看到美國的第 2 階段有所上升。英國在過去幾年中處於第二階段。什麼時候——您能談談將卡片從第 1 階段轉移到第 2 階段的方法嗎？你的一個競爭對手是在酌情決定的基礎上做的。因此，如果我能在那裡獲得一些關於您的方法的背景知識，第一。其次，考慮到經濟放緩，你認為明年會怎樣？

And three, if, in fact, you're saying you're not seeing much deterioration so far given macro factors, et cetera. Are there other types of statistics or financials that we should be looking at that will give us a better clue on what's going to happen with the consumer portfolios through 2023?

第三，事實上，如果你說考慮到宏觀因素等因素，到目前為止你沒有看到太多惡化。我們是否應該查看其他類型的統計數據或財務數據，以便更好地了解到 2023 年消費者投資組合將會發生什麼？

Thanks, Rob. Thanks for that question. And so the 2 books are performing in different ways. And in large part, it's because of customer sentiment is different in the 2 economies. So what we see in the U.S. is that the U.S. customer is more confident, more inclined to borrow. And that's obviously been added to by the fact that we've onboarded the GAAP book. So we've got organic growth, and then we've got growth from GAAP.

謝謝，羅布。謝謝你的問題。所以這兩本書以不同的方式表現。在很大程度上，這是因為這兩個經濟體的客戶情緒不同。所以我們在美國看到的是，美國客戶更有信心，更願意借錢。這顯然是由於我們已經加入了 GAAP 書籍這一事實而增加的。所以我們有有機增長，然後我們有來自 GAAP 的增長。

Now when we contrast our behavior to pre-pandemic though, although it started to normalize, it's still really quite different. So repayment rates on cards remain high. And although we've seen delinquency rates tick up a little, they are still below what we would have expected to see pre-pandemic. So there's nothing there of concern. What we see is some stage migration but let me describe to you how that can happen.

現在，當我們將我們的行為與大流行前進行對比時，雖然它開始正常化，但它仍然非常不同。因此，信用卡的還款率仍然很高。儘管我們看到拖欠率略有上升，但仍低於我們預期的大流行前水平。所以沒有什麼值得擔心的。我們看到的是一些階段遷移，但讓我向您描述一下這是如何發生的。

Firstly, purely by using your card and by purchasing more, there is a possibility that you would move from stage 1 to stage 2 because the more you use your chip or your card, clearly, that will drive up your probability of default. It might not indicate that you are going to default, but it will have moved in absolute terms. So a movement in stages is exactly what we expect to see when customers start spending money again.

首先，純粹通過使用您的卡和購買更多商品，您有可能從第 1 階段進入第 2 階段，因為您使用芯片或卡的次數越多，顯然，這會增加您違約的可能性。它可能並不表示您將要違約，但它絕對會發生變化。因此，當客戶再次開始花錢時，分階段的變化正是我們所期望看到的。

The second thing I would say is that as we onboarded [GAAP], it was all onboarded at stage 1. That's merely what the accounting rules require us to do. And then what happens over time is those customers settle into the stage that we would expect them to be in sort of longer term. So you've got both those impacts going on in the U.S.

我要說的第二件事是，當我們加入 [GAAP] 時，它都在第 1 階段加入。這只是會計規則要求我們做的。然後隨著時間的推移，這些客戶會進入我們期望他們長期處於的階段。所以你在美國受到了這兩種影響

The opposite is true in the U.K. because in the U.K., whilst customers are spending more, they're not borrowing more. And that's merely I think, because the U.K. outlook, certainly from a media perspective is bleaker. And therefore, what they are doing is they are repaying at levels that are even higher than during COVID. And we've actually seen our interest-earning lending balances in the U.K. fall. So you've got the opposite effect going on in the U.K., but the methodology applied to both books is the same.

英國的情況正好相反，因為在英國，雖然客戶支出更多，但他們並沒有借更多錢。這只是我認為的，因為從媒體的角度來看，英國的前景肯定更加黯淡。因此，他們正在做的是，他們正在以比 COVID 期間更高的水平償還。我們實際上已經看到我們在英國的生息貸款餘額下降了。所以你在英國得到了相反的效果，但適用於兩本書的方法是相同的。

So what's happening in terms of economic rate, I mean, to some extent, it's not a surprise because these books were constructed to absorb affordability stress, both in terms of our secured and our unsecured lending because when we extend credit to someone, we extensively stress test their affordability.

因此，在經濟利率方面發生的事情，我的意思是，在某種程度上，這並不令人意外，因為這些賬簿的構建是為了吸收負擔能力壓力，無論是在我們的有擔保貸款還是無擔保貸款方面，因為當我們向某人提供信貸時，我們廣泛地壓力測試他們的承受能力。

Then if you think about the fact that the levels of indebtedness across both economies are actually materially lower than they were pre-COVID. And then after that, the fact that unemployment remains very low in both economies, it shouldn't really surprise us that what is clearly affordability stress is not translating through to credit stress. And we really can't see that anywhere. Arrear levels are very low and stable in the U.K. and in the U.S., whilst they've ticked up a little as I said, they're below the pre-pandemic level.

然後，如果您考慮一個事實，即這兩個經濟體的債務水平實際上大大低於 COVID 之前的水平。然後在那之後，事實上這兩個經濟體的失業率仍然很低，我們不應該感到驚訝的是，明顯的負擔能力壓力並沒有轉化為信貸壓力。我們真的看不到任何地方。在英國和美國，欠款水平非常低且穩定，雖然正如我所說的那樣略有上升，但低於大流行前的水平。

The last thing I'd say is that our coverage in both U.S. cards and U.K. cards is high. So for U.S. cards, it's 8.1% overall, and stage 3 balances are covered by 33%. We believe that, that's probably elevated relative to our peer set.

我要說的最後一件事是我們在美國卡和英國卡中的覆蓋率很高。因此，對於美國卡而言，總體為 8.1%，第 3 階段餘額佔 33%。我們認為，相對於我們的同行，這可能有所提高。

And then in the U.K., 7.6% overall and nearly 20% on stage 2. So even if the economy does turn, and you should probably note that our macroeconomic variables that we've used in the fourth quarter are a deterioration from those used in the third quarter. Even if it does turn, we feel that we have got good, robust provisions to cover that eventuality.

然後在英國，總體為 7.6%，第二階段接近 20%。因此，即使經濟確實發生了轉變，你可能應該注意到，我們在第四季度使用的宏觀經濟變量與我們在第四季度使用的變量相比有所惡化第三季度。即使它確實發生了變化，我們也認為我們有很好的、強有力的準備來應對這種可能發生的情況。

That's very helpful. If I could follow up on one thing. Given the high payment rate in -- on U.K. cards, how does that translate into the net interest margin? And can you quantify how many kind of lost basis points of NIM you have as a result of the high payment rates?

這很有幫助。如果我能跟進一件事。鑑於 - 在英國卡上的高支付率，這如何轉化為淨息差？你能量化一下由於高支付率你有多少種 NIM 損失基點？

So it's definitely impacted on our NIM, and we talked about that a little bit on the equity call this morning. We haven't disclosed that but you can see quarter-on-quarter what's happening to our Barclay card income, but you can also see the other side of that in impairment. So at this point in time, whilst we really would like our U.K. cards book to grow, we're pretty happy with the trade-off between those 2 things.

所以這肯定對我們的 NIM 產生了影響，我們今天早上在股權電話會議上談到了這一點。我們沒有透露這一點，但你可以看到我們的巴克萊卡收入的季度環比變化，但你也可以看到另一面的減值。所以在這個時間點，雖然我們真的希望我們的英國卡片簿有所增長，但我們對這兩件事之間的權衡感到非常滿意。

I think the lead indicators for cards growth are definitely there, but we're going to have to see consumer sentiment change before we see meaningful growth in interest earning lending.

我認為卡片增長的領先指標肯定存在，但在我們看到生息貸款有意義的增長之前，我們必須看到消費者情緒發生變化。

Our next question comes from Paul Fenner-Leitao from Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Paul Fenner-Leitao。

Dan, I think both Lee and Rob both covered most of my questions. I guess what I -- you talked about what's going on in the credit card business. You've talked about deposits not really moving and these are kind of some forward indicators. One of the things I think you or someone else mentioned over the last sort of 6 months, what's going on in the use of debit cards and consumer behavior? What are you seeing there that kind of indicates what might happen to stage 2 over the course of -- over the year? And any kind of indicators of some early signs of stress? There's -- asset quality a big bogeyman out there. And any meeting that you have people talk about, it's just extraordinary, that there's no kind of early signs of that happening. I just love a little bit of color on that.

丹，我想李和羅布都回答了我的大部分問題。我猜我——你談到了信用卡業務中正在發生的事情。你談到了存款並沒有真正移動，這些都是一些前瞻性指標。我認為您或其他人在過去 6 個月中提到的一件事是，借記卡的使用和消費者行為發生了什麼？你在那裡看到的是什麼表明第二階段在這一年中可能會發生什麼？還有任何壓力早期跡象的指標嗎？那裡有 - 資產質量是一個大怪物。人們談論的任何會議都是非同尋常的，沒有任何早期跡象表明會發生這種情況。我只是喜歡上面的一點顏色。

And then the other question is the other one that just hasn't been talked about, which is CRE, what you're seeing there? And any color you can give on your book and any danger signs?

然後另一個問題是另一個尚未討論的問題，即 CRE，您在那裡看到了什麼？你可以給你的書塗上什麼顏色和任何危險標誌？

Okay. Why don't I start, and I'm sure Dan might add. I mean we have access to a considerable amount of data, not just to credit and debit card, but also obviously, through our partner card payments business. What we see is customers acting really rationally so that they are moving their spending towards essential spending. So we see less on what we would regard as nonessential spending. And -- but that spending is pretty much holding up. Interestingly, they're still keen to travel, which make [candidates] essential or nonessential depending on your point of view. But we are seeing customers react in a way that shows that they are managing their affordability pressure in a very rational way. That hasn't really changed, to be honest. It's very, very consistent as we sort of exit last year and indeed come into this year. Dan, anything from deposits?

好的。為什麼我不開始，我相信 Dan 可能會補充。我的意思是我們可以訪問大量數據，不僅是信用卡和借記卡數據，而且顯然還可以通過我們的合作夥伴卡支付業務訪問。我們看到的是客戶的行為非常理性，因此他們正在將支出轉向基本支出。因此，我們很少看到我們認為是不必要的支出。而且 - 但這種支出幾乎沒有增加。有趣的是，他們仍然熱衷於旅行，這使 [候選人] 成為必不可少的或非必需的，具體取決於您的觀點。但我們看到客戶的反應表明他們正在以一種非常理性的方式管理他們的負擔能力壓力。老實說，這並沒有真正改變。這是非常非常一致的，因為我們去年退出並確實進入了今年。丹，有存款嗎？

I mean, Paul, we think we talked about this before, but we spend a lot of time actually looking at deposits, particularly saving deposits and breaking that down by demographic, such economic deposit sizes and just looking at that as an indicator of any early signs of consumer distress. On the basis so that's obviously one of the early things that people will do on their own savings. And as we said in the script, we're seeing it materially, but I think that's a pretty good indicator at a sort of individual level.

我的意思是，保羅，我們認為我們之前討論過這個問題，但我們實際上花了很多時間來研究存款，特別是儲蓄存款，並按人口統計、經濟存款規模等進行細分，並將其視為任何早期的指標消費者苦惱的跡象。在此基礎上，這顯然是人們會用自己的積蓄做的早期事情之一。正如我們在劇本中所說，我們正在實質上看到它，但我認為這在某種個人層面上是一個很好的指標。

And as it relates to CRE, I mean, we've given some disclosure on CRE in the quarter. You can see that our exposure has fallen a little. And actually, we've managed our U.K. exposure pretty flat actually for a number of years now. And the level of stage 3 assets within CRE is very low. You can see that in our disclosures under the focus sectors. And actually, we would say that the LTV profile across the whole portfolio is low. It's well collateralized. And our perspective is that any stress scenario can be covered. And as you might imagine, at this point in the market, we're very focused on ensuring that we have up to date valuations on this portfolio, which we are doing regularly. And you'll see that we noted under our selected sector area. That means essentially that it's attracting additional management focus. It doesn't mean to say that we are seeing significant impairment in there. It just means that we know that, that sector is under pressure. And you can see overall it's a very low proportion of our group loans, it's around 4%. So we're broadly happy with it.

由於它與 CRE 相關，我的意思是，我們在本季度對 CRE 進行了一些披露。你可以看到我們的曝光率下降了一點。事實上，多年來，我們在英國的風險敞口實際上已經持平。而華創內部的三期資產水平很低。您可以在我們在重點行業下的披露中看到這一點。實際上，我們會說整個投資組合的 LTV 概況都很低。它有很好的抵押。我們的觀點是可以涵蓋任何壓力情景。正如您可能想像的那樣，在市場的這一點上，我們非常專注於確保我們對這個投資組合有最新的估值，這是我們定期做的。您會看到我們在選定的部門區域下註明。這基本上意味著它正在吸引更多的管理重點。這並不意味著我們在那裡看到了重大損害。這只是意味著我們知道，該行業正面臨壓力。你可以看到總體上它在我們的集團貸款中所佔的比例非常低，大約為 4%。所以我們對此總體上很滿意。

The last thing I would say is that as we run our impairment scenarios for all of our portfolio but particularly CRE, we're obviously looking forward to a slightly deteriorated outlook. And in the CRE portfolios, we're actually running some quite significant reductions in CRE valuations as part of those scenarios, and that still doesn't give us cause for concern given the nature of the book.

我要說的最後一件事是，當我們對所有投資組合（尤其是 CRE）運行減值情景時，我們顯然期待前景略有惡化。在 CRE 投資組合中，作為這些情景的一部分，我們實際上正在對 CRE 估值進行一些相當顯著的削減，鑑於這本書的性質，這仍然不會讓我們感到擔憂。

Our next question comes from Daniel David from Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Daniel David。

I've got 3. Just the first one is just on issuance plans. If you could provide a bit more detail on types, whether you still expect to be a majority dollar issuer. And maybe you could just talk about covered bonds and how cobond issuance might evolve with TFSME roll off in the coming years. The second one is just on the unswapped assets in the liquidity pool, just a bit more on that, whether it was a strategy to optimize income given the market or if it wasn't operational. And if so, what's been done to resolve?

我有 3 個。只有第一個是關於發行計劃的。如果你能提供更多關於類型的細節，你是否仍然期望成為多數美元發行人。也許你可以談談擔保債券以及未來幾年隨著 TFSME 的推出，共同債券的發行會如何發展。第二個只是關於流動性池中未交換的資產，只是更多一點，無論是在給定市場的情況下優化收入的策略，還是不在運營中。如果是這樣，已經做了什麼來解決？

And then finally, a favorite topic of legacy. Just interested on your DISCOs, whether there's been any change for the classification or the way that you view them as per the EBAs letter to DNB? And I'm thinking about the early tax call. And then just on those with regard to LIBOR, do you intend to use the synthetic dollar LIBOR extension after June cessation?

最後，最喜歡的遺產話題。只是對您的 DISCO 感興趣，根據 EBA 給 DNB 的信函，您對它們的分類或看法是否有任何變化？我正在考慮提前報稅。然後就 LIBOR 而言，您是否打算在 6 月停止後使用合成美元 LIBOR 延期？

Okay. Thanks, Dan. I'll take those. So in terms of issuance plans, I mean, we've said that we are going to do GBP 10 billion. We've got that left to do. We'll be active across all of the tiers, as we said in the script. We'll obviously be somewhat opportunistic in terms of currency, will be driven by market demand and pricing. But given the depth of the dollar market, I think we should expect that we'll continue to be big issuer in the dollar market. It does provide that that's in the confidence of execution for us.

好的。謝謝，丹。我會拿那些。因此，就發行計劃而言，我的意思是，我們已經說過我們將發行 100 億英鎊。我們還有事要做。正如我們在腳本中所說，我們將活躍於所有層級。就貨幣而言，我們顯然會有些機會主義，將受到市場需求和定價的驅動。但鑑於美元市場的深度，我認為我們應該預期我們將繼續成為美元市場的大發行人。它確實提供了對我們執行的信心。

The -- sorry, you had a question on cover bonds. So we obviously issued a cover bond this year. We run a very significant liquidity surplus in the U.K. So it's not something we will do very frequently, but we will maintain some name in the market. And we'll look at it periodically. The TFSME repayment is not a particularly big driver of our liquidity position, particularly given the size of surplus that we run.

- 抱歉，您對擔保債券有疑問。所以我們今年顯然發行了擔保債券。我們在英國擁有非常可觀的流動性盈餘。所以我們不會經常這樣做，但我們會在市場上保持一些知名度。我們會定期查看。 TFSME 還款並不是我們流動性狀況的特別大的驅動力，特別是考慮到我們的盈餘規模。

I think your second question was about on swapped assets in the liquidity pool. So the vast majority of assets in the liquidity pool is held with cash at central banks, it's kind of 84% or so of the total liquidity pool. Then there's a portion that is held in securities. A lot of that is on asset swap basis and a very small proportion of it will be actively managed from a fixed rate perspective. And that portion obviously will contribute both to net interest margin but will also contribute to trading income. So we sort of manage it holistically and it generates positive returns overall. Your last question was on the DISCOs. Could you just repeat the question again?

我認為你的第二個問題是關於流動資金池中的交換資產。因此，流動性池中的絕大多數資產都以現金形式存放在中央銀行，大約佔流動性池總量的 84%。然後有一部分以證券形式持有。其中很多是在資產互換的基礎上，其中很小一部分將從固定利率的角度進行積極管理。而這部分顯然將對淨息差做出貢獻，但也會對交易收入做出貢獻。因此，我們對它進行了整體管理，它總體上產生了積極的回報。你的最後一個問題是關於 DISCO 的。你能再重複一遍這個問題嗎？

Yes. So I guess we saw a letter from the EBA with regard to DNB's DISCOs, and they were quite explicit on the way that they viewed us a couple of points. And I guess that what came out of that was that they should have declassified them earlier than they had done. And I think you guys still call them Tier 2 until June 25. So I'm just wondering if there's a change in that view given what the EBA said, and I know it's EBA versus Bank of England. And then secondly, just on synthetic LIBOR, whether you intend to use synthetic LIBOR as an extension post-June this year?

是的。所以我想我們看到了 EBA 關於 DNB 的 DISCO 的一封信，他們非常明確地表達了他們對我們的幾點看法。而且我猜想由此產生的結果是他們應該比他們做的更早解密它們。而且我認為你們在 6 月 25 日之前仍然稱他們為第 2 層級。所以我只是想知道鑑於 EBA 所說的，這種觀點是否有變化，我知道這是 EBA 與英格蘭銀行的對比。其次，就合成 LIBOR 而言，您是否打算在今年 6 月後使用合成 LIBOR 作為延期？

Yes. Yes, yes. Okay. So obviously, yes, we're watching the DNB and the EBA debate with interest. And obviously, we're not governed by the EBA. There's no equivalence -- and there's no equivalent guidance from the PRA and we've been consistent in our treatment for some time with these instruments as Tier 2, probably over on that point. In terms of synthetic LIBOR, I think also a little bit too early to say anything here. It's still under consultation. And we expect that probably not to resolve until into Q2. So nothing further to add on that at the moment.

是的。是的是的。好的。很明顯，是的，我們正在饒有興趣地關注 DNB 和 EBA 的辯論。顯然，我們不受 EBA 的管轄。沒有等效性—— PRA 也沒有等效的指導，我們在一段時間內一直將這些工具作為第 2 級，可能在這一點上已經結束。就合成 LIBOR 而言，我認為在這裡說什麼還為時過早。還在諮詢中。我們預計這可能要到第二季度才能解決。所以目前沒有進一步補充的內容。

Just on the first question. You kind of touched upon LCR just quickly. Do you guys have a target LCR? I know it's kind of elevated at the moment. Do you kind of see it on a number longer term where you kind of look to manage towards?

就第一個問題。您很快就談到了 LCR。你們有目標LCR嗎？我知道目前有點高漲。從長遠來看，您是否希望在某種程度上看到它？

Not particularly. I mean obviously, we've got risk on it to ensure that we are always prudent to regulatory minimums. And therefore, the out -- the remaining output of the LCR is largely due to managing strategy and mixture of assets and liabilities. We're very focused on making sure that the liability basis has economic and commercial as possible. So we do routinely go for and ensure that the funding mix and cost is in the right place. But I wouldn't call out specific LCR target.

不是特別。我的意思是，很明顯，我們承擔了風險，以確保我們始終對監管最低限度持謹慎態度。因此，LCR 的剩餘產出主要歸因於管理策略以及資產和負債的混合。我們非常專注於確保責任基礎盡可能具有經濟性和商業性。因此，我們會定期尋求並確保資金組合和成本處於正確的位置。但我不會提出具體的 LCR 目標。

Our next question comes from Ellie Dann from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ellie Dann。

I wanted to ask another legacy question this time about the legacy Tier 1 preference shares. I understand these are now grand part of this Tier 2 capital due in 2025. That -- because that's coordinated there. The OpCo, I guess, it doesn't count towards MREL. So just wondering how you're thinking about these and whether it makes sense to be (inaudible).

這次我想問另一個關於遺留一級優先股的遺留問題。我知道這些現在是 2025 年到期的二級資本的重要組成部分。那——因為那是在那裡協調的。我猜 OpCo 不計入 MREL。所以只是想知道你是如何考慮這些的，以及這樣做是否有意義（聽不清）。

Yes. I mean, I probably won't comment on individual securities. I think we've said before, the key for us in our consideration in this area is the treatment as regulatory capital because that's obviously what provides the Bank of England stabilization power. So that's really the key cornerstone of our philosophy here.

是的。我的意思是，我可能不會對個別證券發表評論。我想我們之前已經說過，我們在這個領域考慮的關鍵是作為監管資本的處理，因為這顯然是提供英格蘭銀行穩定力量的因素。所以這真的是我們這裡哲學的關鍵基石。

Our next question comes from Daniel Crowe from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Daniel Crowe。

Just the first one on the surplus on the pension. I know there are some changes in how the regulator is looking that in Pillar 2. But is there some scope for -- to see a potential reduction there? And then just another one on synthetic LIBOR. I was just wondering if you had looked at the potential impacts on both the assets and the liability side? Or do you have an idea of how much might be affected given that we could have a potential end to that. And then just the third one if I may is that, I had to dropoff the call this morning and I think I got semi partial answer there earlier. But just what was the other 33 impact in the Barclays U.K. NIM that would be great?

只是關於養老金盈餘的第一個。我知道監管機構對支柱 2 的看法發生了一些變化。但是是否有一定的空間 - 可以看到那裡的潛在減少？然後是關於合成 LIBOR 的另一個。我只是想知道您是否研究了對資產和負債方面的潛在影響？或者，鑑於我們可能會結束這種情況，您是否知道可能會受到多大影響。然後是第三個，如果可以的話，我今天早上不得不掛斷電話，我想我早些時候在那裡得到了半部分答复。但是，巴克萊英國 NIM 的其他 33 個影響是什麼？

Okay. So I think we called out last year that we expected a benefit in the Pillar 2A calculation from and the derisking of the pension position. That has occurred, and we have had a reduction in Pillar 2A. Unfortunately, that has been offset by the change of calculation and the way that the PRA determines the Pillar 2A numbers. So over the COVID area, they allow that to dynamically move with RWAs. They've now reverted back to fixing that on a period basis against RWAs. So the 2 things have largely offset in the overall number, but we have had the benefit in terms of the pension derisking point.

好的。因此，我認為我們去年曾呼籲，我們預計 Pillar 2A 的計算將從養老金頭寸中受益並降低風險。這已經發生了，我們已經減少了支柱 2A。不幸的是，這已被計算的變化和 PRA 確定 Pillar 2A 數字的方式所抵消。因此，在 COVID 區域，他們允許它隨 RWA 動態移動。他們現在恢復到根據 RWA 定期修復該問題。因此，這兩件事在總體上已基本抵消，但我們在養老金去風險點方面受益匪淺。

In terms of synthetic LIBOR, I mean, we're still focusing on reducing the LIBOR exposures that we've got, and we're focusing on that on the assets and the liability side. That's an ongoing journey. So it's a combination of both the final consultation on synthetic LIBOR and what we're left with in terms of that journey. But we think we're actively working it down.

就合成 LIBOR 而言，我的意思是，我們仍在專注於減少我們所擁有的 LIBOR 敞口，我們正專注於資產和負債方面。那是一個持續的旅程。因此，它結合了關於合成 LIBOR 的最終磋商以及我們在該旅程中剩下的內容。但我們認為我們正在積極努力解決它。

Okay. Let me take the second half. So of that 33 basis points is broadly half and half between product impacts and the treasury impact, which stands just reflected upon. So the product impact, we're seeing some compression in mortgage margins. in part because of the nature of the market, a very low loan to value, low margin product really out there and a lot of churn, and also reduction in interest-earning lending for cards, as I mentioned before, although there's some offset to that within the impairment line.

好的。讓我看下半場。因此，在這 33 個基點中，產品影響和財務影響大致各佔一半，這只是反映出來的。所以產品的影響，我們看到抵押貸款利潤率有所壓縮。部分原因是市場的性質，非常低的貸款價值，低利潤產品確實存在，大量流失，以及信用卡生息貸款的減少，正如我之前提到的，儘管有一些抵消在減值線內。

We have not yet seen significant liability migration but that's something we might expect to see in the future.

我們還沒有看到重大的責任轉移，但我們可能希望在未來看到這種情況。

What Dan referred to before was some securities held in the BUK liquidity buffer in fixed-rate form. The cost of funding those clearly spiked a bit in the fourth quarter. And therefore, we've seen that margin on those compress. And -- but as he said, it's a short-term impact because they tend to be short dated and they are actively managed. So that part of it we expect to dissipate over time.

Dan之前提到的是BUK流動性緩衝中以固定利率形式持有的一些證券。為這些項目提供資金的成本在第四季度明顯飆升。因此，我們已經看到了這些壓縮的利潤。而且——但正如他所說，這是一個短期影響，因為它們往往是短期的，而且它們是積極管理的。所以我們希望它的那一部分會隨著時間的推移而消散。

And could you give just on dissipating over time, what sort of duration are we talking about there? Is that 1 year or...

你能否給出隨著時間的推移消散，我們在那裡談論的持續時間是什麼樣的？是1年還是...

Significantly less than that. We would expect this to be significantly move...

明顯少於此。我們預計這將發生重大變化......

Our next question comes from Tom Jenkins from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Tom Jenkins。

I want to very long as Daniel, and [Ellie] have asked most of my questions already. Just on the -- forgetting a favorite topic of legacies but getting on to the new issuance calendar this year, which you've highlighted for MREL of about 10 yards. And should we just assume that it will be following or tracking much along the lines of your redemption schedule. So for example, in AT1 coming up in September, I think, 2, 2.5 yards or so in dollars, should that be sort of a guide -- guiding lights as it were? Or should we be thinking it in a different way in terms of the makeup of your GBP 10 billion?

我想和 Daniel 一樣，[Ellie] 已經問了我的大部分問題。就在——忘記了最喜歡的遺產話題，而是進入了今年的新發行日曆，你已經為大約 10 碼的 MREL 強調了這一點。我們是否應該假設它會按照您的贖回時間表進行跟踪或跟踪。因此，例如，在 9 月即將推出的 AT1 中，我認為，2、2.5 碼左右（以美元計），這是否應該是一種指南——可以說是指路明燈？還是我們應該以不同的方式考慮您的 100 億英鎊的構成？

Yes. Obviously, we'll never comment on upcoming calls for obvious reasons. I think to be honest, what we did last year is a pretty good guide as well in terms of the type of mix and shape that you would expect of our issuance.

是的。顯然，出於顯而易見的原因，我們永遠不會對即將到來的電話發表評論。我想說實話，我們去年所做的是一個很好的指導，就您期望我們發行的組合和形狀而言也是如此。

And then I think the next question is our final question.

然後我認為下一個問題是我們的最後一個問題。

Our final question today comes from Robert Montague from Allspring Global Investments.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 Allspring Global Investments 的 Robert Montague。

Hope you can hear me. It's quite a quick one. It's regarding your capital and your MDA hurdle, which is currently 11.3%. And as you point out, we got to about 11.7% at the start of Q3 with the further [reintroduction] of the U.K. countercyclical buffer. Your CET1 is currently 13.9% but obviously, you've got some headwinds in Q1 next year, which has picked around to around 13.5%. So by marking your MDA buffer falls about 180 basis points. I'm just wondering whether you think that is sufficient. And also, you've got a target of 13% to 14% and given that your MDA had looked up to 11.7%, whether you would up the lower [bound]?

希望你能聽到我的聲音。這是一個相當快的。這是關於你的資本和你的 MDA 障礙，目前是 11.3%。正如你所指出的，隨著英國反週期緩衝的進一步[重新引入]，我們在第三季度初達到了 11.7% 左右。您的 CET1 目前為 13.9%，但顯然，明年第一季度您遇到了一些不利因素，已升至 13.5% 左右。因此，通過標記您的 MDA 緩衝區下降了大約 180 個基點。我只是想知道您是否認為這就足夠了。而且，你的目標是 13% 到 14%，鑑於你的 MDA 已經達到 11.7%，你是否會提高下限？

Yes. We've obviously designed our long-standing capital target with this in mind, and this increase in the countercyclical has obviously been in the wings for some time. So we're very comfortable with the range. And I'll probably make a couple of points in terms of why we're comfortable. Firstly, we've operated with that range in the past. Secondly, we're obviously highly capital generative. So 150 basis points of CET1 accretion. That's the sort of 10% RoTE target. That provides us with quite a significant room to maneuver in terms of the buffer. And thirdly, the expectation would be as has been evidenced in the event we did hit a macro stress, we would expect the regulator to reduce the CCyB. So for all of those reasons, I think we're comfortable even after the introduction of the CCyB operating in the target capital range.

是的。顯然，我們在設計長期資本目標時就考慮到了這一點，而這種逆週期增長顯然已經醞釀了一段時間。所以我們對這個範圍非常滿意。我可能會就我們感到舒適的原因提出幾點意見。首先，我們過去曾在該範圍內運營。其次，我們顯然具有很高的資本生成能力。所以 CET1 增加了 150 個基點。這就是那種 10% 的 RoTE 目標。這為我們提供了相當大的緩衝空間。第三，正如我們確實遇到宏觀壓力所證明的那樣，我們預計監管機構會降低 CCyB。因此，出於所有這些原因，我認為即使在引入在目標資本範圍內運營的 CCyB 之後，我們也會感到滿意。

There is actually one more question.

其實還有一個問題。

The next question comes from James Hyde from PGIM.

下一個問題來自 PGIM 的 James Hyde。

Sorry to sneak in at the last moment, but I had to assume someone else would ask about this. Leverage lending, I mean, I always try and find what the exposure is on cards and commitments down 50% since H1 '22. I mean can we at all scale this? Initially, I thought it would have something to do with that GBP 54 billion corporate lending exposures, first loss, [32%] on these loans. And on the call -- earlier call, it sounded like you said these are predominantly for leveraged lending. Did I mishear that to try and scale a little. Can you help me in any other way? Because it appears to give these exposures.

很抱歉在最後一刻偷偷溜進來，但我不得不假設其他人會問這個問題。槓桿貸款，我的意思是，我總是試圖找出自 22 年上半年以來信用卡和承諾的風險降低了 50%。我的意思是我們可以全面擴展嗎？最初，我認為這與 540 億英鎊的企業貸款敞口有關，這些貸款的首次損失 [32%]。在電話中——早些時候的電話中，聽起來你說這些主要用於槓桿貸款。我是不是聽錯了，試圖擴大規模。你能以任何其他方式幫助我嗎？因為它似乎提供了這些曝光。

Okay. Thank you, James. The GBP 54 billion that relates to the first loss protection is actually corporate lending. So not leveraged lending. We haven't displayed our leverage and our leverage exposure. We have clearly disclosed that we've reduced it by 50% over the last 2 quarters. That's reflective of the wider environment. And we are operating well within our risk limits, and we've taken appropriate marks at the end of the quarter.

好的。謝謝你，詹姆斯。與第一筆損失保護相關的540億英鎊實際上是企業貸款。所以不是槓桿貸款。我們沒有顯示我們的槓桿和我們的槓桿敞口。我們已明確披露，在過去兩個季度中，我們已將其減少了 50%。這反映了更廣泛的環境。我們在我們的風險限度內運作良好，我們在本季度末取得了適當的成績。

The other thing I would say is that we do obviously hedge these exposures as well. We use tail hedges and the cost of those is going through the corporate lending line. So when we talk about marks, we're talking about net marks. And so -- but it's an important business for us, but we feel like we're well positioned in it given the risk decisions we've made.

我要說的另一件事是，我們顯然也在對沖這些風險敞口。我們使用尾部對沖，這些成本通過公司貸款額度進行。所以當我們談論商標時，我們是在談論淨商標。所以——但這對我們來說是一項重要的業務，但鑑於我們做出的風險決策，我們覺得我們在其中處於有利地位。

And this time, you don't seem to have called it out as 3-digit million with the impact which you had done in some previous quarters. Is that fair?

而這一次，您似乎並沒有像前幾個季度那樣產生 3 位數的影響。這公平嗎？

Yes. So over the year, I think the net marks are actually [3 35], and it's about, I would call, [84] in the fourth quarter.

是的。所以在這一年裡，我認為淨標記實際上是 [3 35]，我認為第四季度大約是 [84]。

Well, it looks like there are no more questions, but thank you for joining the call today. Really appreciate your time, and we will see you in meetings over the coming weeks. I'm sure. Thank you.

好吧，看起來沒有其他問題了，但感謝您今天加入電話會議。非常感謝您的寶貴時間，我們將在未來幾週的會議上見到您。我敢肯定。謝謝。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。