Barclays PLC (BCS) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Barclays Q1 '22 Analyst and Investor Conference Call. I will now hand you over to CF Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive; and Anna Cross, Group Finance Director.

歡迎參加 Barclays Q1 '22 分析師和投資者電話會議。我現在將您交給集團首席執行官 CF Venkatakrishnan；和集團財務總監 Anna Cross。

Good morning. I am pleased to report a strong first quarter for 2022 for Barclays. Our strategy is delivering and we saw income growth in all 3 of our main operating businesses.

早上好。我很高興地報告巴克萊 2022 年第一季度的強勁表現。我們的戰略正在實現，我們在所有 3 項主要經營業務中都看到了收入增長。

Group income was up 10% to GBP 6.5 billion for this quarter. Profit before tax was GBP 2.2 billion, and group return on tangible equity was 11.5%. This comes after absorbing an increase in costs, and that increase was driven in particular by the remediation of the legacy portfolio as well as an over issuance of securities in the U.S., something which I will talk about in a moment.

本季度集團收入增長 10% 至 65 億英鎊。稅前利潤為 22 億英鎊，集團有形股本回報率為 11.5%。這是在吸收成本增加之後發生的，尤其是由於對遺留投資組合的修復以及美國證券的過度發行，我稍後會談到這一點。

Our group income has benefited from broadly improved performance in our consumer businesses, Barclays U.K. and Consumer, Cards and Payments assisted by rising rates. Global Markets has also performed well as we helped clients navigate the volatility of the first quarter, both before and after the appalling invasion of Ukraine.

我們的集團收入受益於我們的消費業務、英國巴克萊銀行和消費者、卡和支付業務的廣泛改善，這得益於利率上升。 Global Markets 也表現良好，因為我們幫助客戶應對第一季度的波動，無論是在駭人聽聞的入侵烏克蘭之前還是之後。

Unsecured lending balances remain well below pre-pandemic levels and impairment was GBP 141 million for the quarter. We remain well capitalized with a CET1 ratio of 13.8%, comfortably within our target range of 13% to 14%.

無擔保貸款餘額仍遠低於疫情前水平，本季度減值為 1.41 億英鎊。我們仍然資本充足，CET1 比率為 13.8%，處於我們 13% 至 14% 的目標範圍內。

Before Anna and I continue talking about the highlights of our quarterly performance, let me start by addressing 2 matters. The first is the over issuance of securities in the U.S. and the second is our exposure to Russia. As part of our Structured Products business, Barclays is a frequent issuer of structured notes and exchange-traded notes in the U.S. as well as elsewhere.

在和安娜繼續談論我們季度業績的亮點之前，讓我先解決兩個問題。一是在美國過度發行證券，二是我們對俄羅斯的敞口。作為我們結構化產品業務的一部分，巴克萊銀行經常在美國和其他地方發行結構化票據和交易所交易票據。

In March, we identified that the securities offered and sold under our U.S. shelf registration statement had exceeded the registered amount for a period of about a year. As a result, we will be conducting a recession offer to eligible purchases of these affected securities. Details of this will be published in due course.

3 月，我們發現根據我們的美國貨架登記聲明發售和出售的證券已超過登記金額約一年。因此，我們將對這些受影響證券的合格購買進行衰退要約。這方面的細節將在適當時候公佈。

The quantum of the pretax loss due to this recession is about GBP 500 million. Anna will take you through the impact on our financial statements, including the allocation of these losses between 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. This situation was entirely avoidable, and I'm deeply disappointed that it occurred.

這次經濟衰退造成的稅前損失約為 5 億英鎊。 Anna 將帶您了解對我們財務報表的影響，包括這些損失在 2021 年至 2022 年第一季度之間的分配情況。這種情況是完全可以避免的，我對它的發生深感失望。

The necessity of a strong controls culture has never been clearer to me. In fact, we have made considerable progress improving our controls since 2016, and so the fact that this happened is particularly upsetting. I have commissioned an external review of the matter with oversight from the Board, and this review is focused on what happened, how it could have happened and where accountability lies. At the same time, I take some comfort from our response and our ability to absorb this issue financially.

對我來說，強大的控製文化的必要性從未如此清晰。事實上，自 2016 年以來，我們在改進控制方面取得了相當大的進展，因此發生這種情況的事實尤其令人不安。我已在董事會的監督下委託對此事進行外部審查，這次審查的重點是發生了什麼、如何發生以及責任在哪裡。同時，我從我們的回應和我們在財務上消化這個問題的能力中得到一些安慰。

The matter was escalated immediately, both internally and to our regulators, with whom we are cooperating constructively. To date, we have not found any evidence of intentional misconduct. And having reviewed all our other issuance programs, we note that they're all within applicable limits. However, the fact that this over issuance occurred reflects the weakness in our control environment, and we are taking steps to address this.

此事立即在內部和我們的監管機構升級，我們正在與他們進行建設性合作。迄今為止，我們還沒有發現任何故意不當行為的證據。在審查了我們所有的其他發行計劃後，我們注意到它們都在適用的限制範圍內。然而，這種過度發行的事實反映了我們控制環境的弱點，我們正在採取措施解決這個問題。

We're also enhancing the internal controls in relation to our debt securities issuance activities as an extra safeguard. In view of our ongoing discussions with the SEC concerning the impact of this issue, we are delaying the execution of our stock buyback until these discussions have concluded. This is not a question of whether we will be proceeding with this buyback, but when we will be proceeding.

我們還加強了與我們的債務證券發行活動相關的內部控制，作為額外的保障。鑑於我們正在與美國證券交易委員會就該問題的影響進行討論，我們將推遲執行股票回購，直到這些討論結束。這不是我們是否會進行回購的問題，而是我們何時進行的問題。

Our capital position is strong as reflected in the results we have just received, and we expect to be in a position to proceed with the buyback towards the end of the second quarter. Let me now turn to Russia.

正如我們剛剛收到的結果所反映的那樣，我們的資本狀況良好，我們預計能夠在第二季度末進行回購。現在讓我談談俄羅斯。

We have been witnessing a horrific human tragedy unfolding in Ukraine over the last few months. The human element of the conflict is what we feel first and foremost. We have also been dealing with the market repercussions. Barclays itself has no onshore presence in Ukraine or in Russia, following our exit there some years ago. The exposure we do have to Russia is principally through the facilitation of client activities in the Corporate and Investment Bank.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們目睹了烏克蘭發生的可怕的人類悲劇。衝突的人為因素是我們首先感受到的。我們也一直在應對市場的影響。幾年前我們退出烏克蘭或俄羅斯後，巴克萊銀行本身在烏克蘭或俄羅斯沒有在岸業務。我們對俄羅斯的接觸主要是通過促進企業和投資銀行的客戶活動。

As illustrated on the slide, though, we reduced this exposure significantly through the quarter, and we have managed to control it carefully. We know that we need to remain vigilant to protect the group from second and third order risks, which includes cyber treats. We are, of course, working closely with governments and regulators around the world to comply with sanctions.

但是，如幻燈片所示，我們在整個季度中顯著減少了這種風險，並且我們設法謹慎地控制了它。我們知道，我們需要保持警惕，以保護該集團免受包括網絡治療在內的二級和三級風險。當然，我們正在與世界各地的政府和監管機構密切合作，以遵守制裁。

Turning now to some of the highlights of the quarter. I'd like to start first and talk briefly about the strong performance of our market franchise. Global Markets income has been notably higher since 2020. This has been driven by a number of factors, including what is happening externally in the marketplace as well as the result of a number of strategic decisions, which we have made over time.

現在轉向本季度的一些亮點。我想首先簡單談談我們市場特許經營權的強勁表現。自 2020 年以來，全球市場收入顯著提高。這是由多種因素推動的，包括市場外部發生的情況以及我們隨著時間的推移做出的一些戰略決策的結果。

To begin with, the franchise is benefiting from the ongoing growth of the global capital markets themselves. Our margins have also improved, reflecting the higher level of market volatility that we have experienced since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

首先，特許經營權受益於全球資本市場本身的持續增長。我們的利潤率也有所提高，這反映了自 COVID-19 大流行開始以來我們所經歷的更高水平的市場波動。

We have also benefited from competitor exits in some of the product areas where we have made strategic investments, including in our equity plan financing business. But many of the drivers of our success also results from the positioning of our business, including the investments which we have made in our client offering and the digitization of our platforms.

在我們進行戰略投資的一些產品領域，包括我們的股權計劃融資業務，我們還從競爭對手的退出中受益。但是，我們成功的許多驅動因素也來自我們的業務定位，包括我們對客戶產品的投資和我們平台的數字化。

As I mentioned at year-end, we have also taken steps to diversify our income streams, improving the consistency of our performance, especially during changing market conditions. We have grown our financing income by approximately 40% between 2018 and the end of 2021. And in fact, in the first quarter of 2022, that income growth continued, up around 10% on the previous quarter.

正如我在年底提到的那樣，我們還採取措施使收入來源多樣化，提高業績的一致性，尤其是在不斷變化的市場條件下。從 2018 年到 2021 年底，我們的融資收入增長了約 40%。事實上，在 2022 年第一季度，收入繼續增長，比上一季度增長了約 10%。

So our Global Markets business is growing in strength and capability. However, as I said to you in the previous quarter, this growth will not always be monotonically in a straight line. Our relative performance will be stronger in some quarters than in others.

因此，我們的全球市場業務的實力和能力正在增長。但是，正如我在上一季度對您所說的那樣，這種增長並不總是單調的直線。我們的相對錶現在某些方面會比其他方面更強。

For instance, in Q4 of 2021, we underperformed our competitors. While in Q1 of 2022, our performance has been particularly strong versus our competitors. This relative performance is determined by 3 things.

例如，在 2021 年第四季度，我們的表現遜於競爭對手。在 2022 年第一季度，與競爭對手相比，我們的表現尤其強勁。這種相對性能由三件事決定。

The first is the businesses in which we engage. The second is the strength of our interaction with clients. And the third is particular idiosyncratic opportunities in which we have helped clients manage their exposures.

首先是我們從事的業務。第二是我們與客戶互動的力量。第三個是我們幫助客戶管理風險敞口的特殊機會。

In Q1 of 2020 -- 2022, all these 3 factors contributed to increased revenue. As I've already outlined, our business mix means that we have relatively limited direct exposure to Russia and to the commodities market. We have managed the exposure which we do have proactively and dynamically.

在 2020 年第一季度 - 2022 年，所有這三個因素都有助於增加收入。正如我已經概述的那樣，我們的業務組合意味著我們對俄羅斯和大宗商品市場的直接接觸相對有限。我們已經主動和動態地管理了我們確實擁有的風險。

Q1 also saw increased trading activity commencing with rising interest rates in January and February and increasing after the invasion of Ukraine. Thanks to the strength of our client franchise, we were able to help many clients manage their risks and exposures during this period, responding to rising risks and fluctuating equity prices. We were also able to help a number of important clients manage very large currency and debt exposures related to Russia.

第一季度的交易活動也隨著 1 月和 2 月利率的上升以及烏克蘭入侵後的增加而增加。由於我們的客戶特許經營實力，我們能夠幫助許多客戶在此期間管理他們的風險和敞口，應對不斷上升的風險和波動的股票價格。我們還能夠幫助許多重要客戶管理與俄羅斯相關的非常大的貨幣和債務風險敞口。

In summary, the investments we have made over the past few years in this business are now delivering, positioning us to continue to serve our clients when they need us most. Turning now to the economic environment. Rising interest rates at both the short term and the long end of the yield curve are leading to higher net interest margins for the bank.

總而言之，我們過去幾年在這項業務上所做的投資現在正在發揮作用，使我們能夠在客戶最需要我們的時候繼續為他們服務。現在轉向經濟環境。收益率曲線的短期和長期利率上升導致銀行的淨息差上升。

We are already starting to see some of the benefits from rises in the base rate flow through to our customer businesses -- consumer businesses. However, both the U.K. and the U.S. economies, while they are forecast to continue growing over the next 3 years, faced a stretch from rising inflation.

我們已經開始看到基準利率上升帶來的一些好處流向我們的客戶業務——消費者業務。然而，英國和美國的經濟雖然預計在未來 3 年將繼續增長，但都面臨著通脹上升的壓力。

One compensating aspect is that unemployment in the U.K. and the U.S. remained at low levels. We are very focused on the impact that higher prices are having on our customers and our clients, a great many of facing far harder conditions this year as a result of inflation, particularly from supply chain difficulties and higher energy costs. We will support those who bank with us to navigate this difficult period wherever we can, and we will continue to support the wider economy just as we did through the COVID crisis.

一個補償方面是英國和美國的失業率保持在低水平。我們非常關注更高的價格對我們的客戶和我們的客戶的影響，由於通貨膨脹，特別是供應鏈困難和更高的能源成本，今年許多人面臨著更加艱難的條件。我們將盡可能支持那些與我們一起銀行的人度過這個困難時期，我們將繼續支持更廣泛的經濟，就像我們在 COVID 危機中所做的那樣。

We remain focused on our 3 strategic priorities, which are outlined at year-end. The first, to deliver next-generation digitized consumer financial services. Second, to produce sustainable growth in the Corporate and Investment Bank. And third, capturing opportunities as we transition to a low carbon economy.

我們仍然專注於我們在年底概述的 3 個戰略重點。首先，提供下一代數字化消費金融服務。第二，實現企業和投資銀行的可持續增長。第三，在我們向低碳經濟轉型的過程中抓住機遇。

Across our Barclays U.K. and Consumer, Cards and Payments businesses, we are continuing to invest in our digital capabilities to enable our customers and clients to transact and interact digitally. We are building out more cost-effective infrastructure using consumer data more effectively, and we have invested to grow our payments business.

在我們的巴克萊英國和消費者、卡和支付業務中，我們將繼續投資於我們的數字能力，以使我們的客戶和客戶能夠進行數字化交易和互動。我們正在更有效地利用消費者數據構建更具成本效益的基礎設施，並且我們已投資發展我們的支付業務。

Within wholesale banking, we are investing to sustain our position as the sixth ranked global investment bank. This will allow us to continue to take advantage of the growth in capital markets and to help our clients manage risk, as you have seen in the results this quarter.

在批發銀行業務中，我們正在投資以維持我們作為全球第六大投資銀行的地位。正如您在本季度的業績中所看到的那樣，這將使我們能夠繼續利用資本市場的增長並幫助我們的客戶管理風險。

As I've already touched on, we have also sourced to diversify our income in the Corporate and Investment Bank, including by investments in more consistent annuity type financing businesses in Global Markets. We are also targeting growth in transaction banking and our corporate banking offering in Europe.

正如我已經談到的那樣，我們還通過對全球市場中更一致的年金類型融資業務的投資，使我們在企業和投資銀行的收入多樣化。我們還瞄準了交易銀行業務和我們在歐洲的企業銀行業務的增長。

Finally, our third priority is to recognize the scale of opportunity in climate-related financing and to realize it. We want Barclays to be able to benefit as we support our customers and our clients to transition their businesses and their activities towards lower carbon emissions. Helping finance this transition is a key part of our strategy to become a net 0 bank by 2050.

最後，我們的第三個優先事項是認識到氣候相關融資機會的規模並實現它。我們希望巴克萊銀行能夠受益，因為我們支持我們的客戶和客戶將他們的業務和活動轉向低碳排放。幫助為這一過渡提供資金是我們到 2050 年成為淨零銀行戰略的關鍵部分。

We are well underway to reach our target to facilitate GBP 100 billion of green financing by 2030 having already facilitated over GBP 65 billion. We also recently announced important updates to our climate strategy, targets and progress, including our work to reduce our finance emissions. We have set 2030 reduction targets for 4 of the highest emitting (inaudible) in our portfolio and further tightened our restrictive policies with respect to the financing of thermal coal.

我們正在順利實現我們的目標，即到 2030 年促成 1000 億英鎊的綠色融資，目前已促成超過 650 億英鎊。我們最近還宣布了我們的氣候戰略、目標和進展的重要更新，包括我們減少金融排放的工作。我們為投資組合中排放量最高的 4 個（聽不清）設定了 2030 年減排目標，並進一步收緊了對動力煤融資的限制性政策。

As part of our commitment to give shareholders a say on climate, we are offering our shareholders a vote on our climate strategy, targets and progress at our Annual General Meeting in Manchester next week. In conclusion, we had a strong quarter. This is despite the over issuance of securities in the U.S., which was a disappointing controls matter and has impacted our costs.

作為我們讓股東對氣候有發言權的承諾的一部分，我們將在下周於曼徹斯特舉行的年度股東大會上就我們的氣候戰略、目標和進展向股東提供投票。總之，我們有一個強勁的季度。儘管在美國過度發行證券，但這是一個令人失望的控制問題，並影響了我們的成本。

We have maintained a double-digit group return on tangible equity that was a feature of our performance throughout 2021, and I am confident in our ability to sustain this on an ongoing basis and we continue to target an RoTE of greater than 10% in 2022.

我們保持了兩位數的有形資產回報率，這是我們整個 2021 年業績的一個特點，我相信我們有能力持續維持這一點，我們將繼續以 2022 年超過 10% 的 RoTE 為目標.

As I've already mentioned, we will be proceeding with our planned GBP 1 billion share buyback program, and we expect to be in a position to do so towards the end of the second quarter. Thank you, and over now to you, Anna.

正如我已經提到的，我們將繼續我們計劃中的 10 億英鎊股票回購計劃，我們預計將能夠在第二季度末這樣做。謝謝你，現在結束，安娜。

Thank you, Venkat. Good morning, everyone. You will have seen our announcement about over issuance of securities in the U.S. a few weeks ago. At the time, we expected the Q1 results to reflect circa GBP 0.5 billion of litigation and conduct costs pretax in respect of this.

謝謝你，文卡特。大家，早安。幾週前，您將看到我們關於在美國過度發行證券的公告。當時，我們預計第一季度的業績將反映大約 5 億英鎊的訴訟費用和與此相關的稅前成本。

Following subsequent discussions with regulators, we have apportioned GBP 0.2 billion of these estimated costs to 2021. We also have GBP 0.2 billion of customer remediation relating to a legacy partner finance portfolio in CCP, which we weren't expecting at the time of our full year results. I'll highlight the effect these charges have on Q1 as we go through the presentation. I'll start with a summary of our Q1 performance.

經過與監管機構的後續討論，我們已將這些估計成本中的 2 億英鎊分攤到 2021 年。我們還有 2 億英鎊與 CCP 的遺留合作夥伴金融投資組合相關的客戶補救措施，這是我們在全面實施時沒有預料到的。年結果。在我們進行演示時，我將強調這些費用對第一季度的影響。我將從第一季度業績的總結開始。

Overall, we continue to focus on delivery of our 3 targets for RoTE, the cost/income ratio and CET1. RoTE for the quarter was 11.5% despite the impact of the litigation and conduct costs with both Barclays International and Barclays U.K. delivering double-digit returns.

總體而言，我們繼續專注於實現 RoTE 的 3 個目標，即成本/收入比和 CET1。儘管受到訴訟和行為成本的影響，巴克萊國際和巴克萊英國均實現了兩位數的回報，但本季度的 RoTE 為 11.5%。

Our cost/income ratio was 63%, elevated by the level of L&C costs in the quarter. However, operating costs were broadly flat against income growth of 10%, demonstrating the operating leverage of the businesses and our cost discipline. The CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 13.8%, comfortably above the midpoint of our target range. This capital print includes the impact of the GBP 1 billion share buyback program announced with full year results.

我們的成本/收入比率為 63%，高於本季度的 L&C 成本水平。然而，運營成本與 10% 的收入增長基本持平，顯示了業務的運營槓桿和我們的成本紀律。 CET1 比率在本季度末為 13.8%，遠高於我們目標範圍的中點。這一資本印記包括公佈的 10 億英鎊股票回購計劃的影響以及全年業績。

Overall, we delivered a PBT of GBP 2.2 billion and 8.4p of EPS. I'm going to focus on income, cost and impairment trends across the group before I briefly summarize the results of the individual businesses.

總體而言，我們實現了 22 億英鎊的 PBT 和 8.4 便士的每股收益。在簡要總結各個業務的結果之前，我將重點關注整個集團的收入、成本和減值趨勢。

Income was 10% higher than Q1 2021, with all the businesses contributing. CIB delivered growth of 10%, demonstrating the diversification within the CIB and its ability to deliver attractive returns in a variety of macroeconomic environments. Markets income increased 26%, and this reflects the high level of activity by our clients as we help them reposition in the light of geopolitical uncertainty and rising rates.

收入比 2021 年第一季度高出 10%，所有企業都做出了貢獻。 CIB 實現了 10% 的增長，顯示了 CIB 內部的多元化及其在各種宏觀經濟環境中提供可觀回報的能力。市場收入增長了 26%，這反映了我們的客戶在地緣政治不確定性和利率上升的情況下幫助他們重新定位時的高水平活動。

FICC revenues were up 37%, reflecting increased volumes and attractive bid offer spreads in volatile markets. Equities revenues were GBP 1 billion, up 13% year-on-year with particular strength in derivatives. Quarterly comparisons of market income are affected by various factors, and our Q1 year-on-year increase does benefit from our business mix.

FICC 收入增長了 37%，這反映了在動蕩的市場中交易量的增加和有吸引力的報價差價。股票收入為 10 億英鎊，同比增長 13%，其中衍生品業務尤為強勁。市場收入的季度比較受各種因素影響，我們的第一季度同比增長確實受益於我們的業務組合。

But as we look at the development of our markets income over multiple quarters, we are pleased with the development of our franchises on a trend basis. One example is financing activities, which performed well within FICC and equities with increased balances and healthy spreads.

但是，當我們審視多個季度的市場收入發展時，我們對我們的特許經營權在趨勢基礎上的發展感到滿意。一個例子是融資活動，在 FICC 和股票中表現良好，餘額增加，利差健康。

Balances in equity prime were up 14% year-on-year, evidencing our successful expansion of that business over the last few years. Investment banking fees were down 25% year-on-year, reflecting lower primary issuance volumes particularly in equity capital markets. Debt capital markets income was down just 8%, outperforming the market, whilst advisory was up and the deal pipeline remains strong.

優質股票餘額同比增長 14%，證明我們在過去幾年成功擴展了該業務。投資銀行費用同比下降 25%，反映出主要發行量減少，尤其是在股票資本市場。債務資本市場收入僅下降 8%，表現優於市場，而諮詢業務增加，交易渠道依然強勁。

Income in CCP increased 10%, reflecting growth across all 3 constituent parts. In international cards, U.S. balances grew by 13% or $2.6 billion year-on-year, although there was, of course, a seasonal decline during Q1. Given this, we are confident of delivering balance and income growth in 2022, both organically and with the acquisition of the GAP portfolio, which is due to complete towards the end of Q2.

CCP 的收入增長了 10%，反映了所有三個組成部分的增長。在國際卡中，美國餘額同比增長 13% 或 26 億美元，當然第一季度出現季節性下降。鑑於此，我們有信心在 2022 年實現平衡和收入增長，無論是有機的還是收購 GAP 投資組合，這將在第二季度末完成。

However, the income effect of this balance growth will be dampened by the J-curve effect, particularly from customer acquisition in growing portfolios like American Airlines and JetBlue.

然而，這種平衡增長的收入效應將受到 J 曲線效應的抑制，特別是來自美國航空和捷藍航空等不斷增長的投資組合中的客戶獲取。

In the payments business, despite Omicron-related restrictions in January, transactions turnover was up 17% year-on-year, contributing to an increase in income of 44%. The private bank franchise is developing well with income up 20% year-on-year as client balances continue to grow in both banking and investment products.

支付業務方面，儘管 1 月份受到 Omicron 相關限制，但交易額同比增長 17%，收入增長 44%。由於銀行和投資產品的客戶餘額繼續增長，私人銀行業務發展良好，收入同比增長 20%。

Barclays U.K. grew income by 5%, predominantly driven by Personal Banking, where income was up 11% year-on-year. This reflected the strong origination of mortgages throughout 2021, which continued into Q1 2022 with a further GBP 1 billion of net balance growth. Whilst the mortgage market is always very competitive, Personal Banking margins have increased overall due to the impact of rising rates on deposit income.

英國巴克萊銀行的收入增長了 5%，主要受個人銀行業務的推動，其收入同比增長 11%。這反映了整個 2021 年抵押貸款的強勁來源，並持續到 2022 年第一季度，淨餘額進一步增長了 10 億英鎊。儘管抵押貸款市場始終競爭激烈，但由於利率上升對存款收入的影響，個人銀行業務的利潤率總體上有所提高。

Barclays Cards U.K. income fell by 12% year-on-year. Although spend levels have increased by 35%, balances were down year-on-year and fell GBP 0.3 billion in Q1 because of seasonality and elevated repayment rates. We do expect Q1 to be the low point for U.K. card balances with spend recovery generating some growth in lending balances from here.

巴克萊卡英國的收入同比下降 12%。儘管支出水平增加了 35%，但由於季節性因素和還款率上升，餘額同比下降並在第一季度下降了 3 億英鎊。我們確實預計第一季度將成為英國卡餘額的低點，支出複蘇將從此處產生一些貸款餘額增長。

Although recovery in interest earning balances is expected to remain slower.

儘管預計利息收入餘額的恢復速度將保持較慢。

Finally, to pull out some key income themes across the group. Loans and advances have grown year-on-year by 7%, more than matched by deposit growth of 10%. Whilst the market environment for primary issuance has been challenging, that same environment has driven high levels of client activity across both financing and trading in the CIB's markets business.

最後，提出整個集團的一些關鍵收入主題。貸款和墊款同比增長 7%，高於 10% 的存款增長。儘管首次發行的市場環境充滿挑戰，但同樣的環境也推動了 CIB 市場業務中客戶在融資和交易方面的高水平活動。

Increased economic activity has driven transactional fees across consumer and corporate businesses. And lastly, of course, there is a tailwind from rising interest rates, which impact product margins across our franchises, but also income from the structural hedge. We expect this effect to be more meaningful in coming quarters, and you'll find our usual slide on sensitivity to rate increases in the appendix.

經濟活動的增加推動了消費者和企業業務的交易費用。最後，當然，利率上升會帶來順風，這會影響我們特許經營權的產品利潤率，也會影響結構性對沖的收入。我們預計這種影響在未來幾個季度會更有意義，您會在附錄中找到我們通常對加息敏感度的幻燈片。

Looking now at costs. The cost performance this quarter is, of course, dominated by the L&C charges. We manage our statutory costs, and we're not going to adjust all our performance metrics to exclude L&C. However, we do view this quarter's L&C as exceptional, so we focus particularly on the trends in operational costs. These were broadly flat as we exercised good cost discipline and delivered strong positive jaws. Base costs, which exclude structural cost actions and performance costs, were up by GBP 0.6 billion, mainly due to the GBP 0.5 billion increase in L&C.

現在看成本。當然，本季度的成本表現主要是 L&C 費用。我們管理我們的法定成本，我們不會調整我們所有的績效指標以排除信用與信用。然而，我們確實認為本季度的 L&C 非常出色，因此我們特別關注運營成本的趨勢。由於我們實施了良好的成本紀律並提供了強大的積極下巴，因此這些基本持平。不包括結構性成本行動和績效成本的基礎成本增加了 6 億英鎊，主要是由於 L&C 增加了 5 億英鎊。

The Q1 allocation of costs relating to the over issuance of GBP 0.3 billion is charged to the CIB, and the GBP 0.2 billion relating to our legacy partner finance portfolio is in CCP. Looking now at the cost trajectory for the year. When we set our guidance for base costs for the year, we didn't anticipate L&C costs of GBP 0.5 billion in Q1.

與超額發行 3 億英鎊有關的第一季度成本分配由 CIB 收取，與我們的傳統合作夥伴融資組合相關的 2 億英鎊在 CCP 中。現在看看今年的成本軌跡。當我們設定年度基本成本指引時，我們並沒有預計第一季度的 L&C 成本為 5 億英鎊。

There has also been some increase in expectation for inflation, and the dollar has strengthened further since full year results. So we have seen some increase in our outlook for all-in costs for the year.

通脹預期也有所增加，美元自全年業績以來進一步走強。因此，我們看到今年總成本的前景有所增加。

Efficiency and cost discipline remains crucial, and we continue to seek to balance capacity creation with investment for growth. We are reviewing expenditure plans in the light of the expected cost of L&C for the year and the impact of both inflation and FX and may postpone some investment programs.

效率和成本紀律仍然至關重要，我們將繼續尋求在產能創造與增長投資之間取得平衡。我們正在根據本年度 L&C 的預期成本以及通貨膨脹和外彙的影響來審查支出計劃，並可能推遲一些投資計劃。

As we mentioned at full year, based on current plans, we would expect structural cost actions to be materially lower than last year's total of GBP 0.6 billion. You will appreciate that there are a number of moving parts this early in the year, but I'm currently comfortable with the published market consensus of around GBP 15 billion for all-in costs this year.

正如我們全年提到的那樣，根據目前的計劃，我們預計結構性成本行動將大大低於去年的 6 億英鎊總額。你會意識到今年年初有許多活動部件，但我目前對今年公佈的大約 150 億英鎊的總成本的市場共識感到滿意。

Moving on to impairment. We reported a modest charge of GBP 0.1 billion for the quarter. This is Stage 3 impairment relating to net charge-offs and some expected migrations through the impairment stages as economic activity recovers. Delinquency rates in the businesses are stable at low levels with 30-day arrears in U.K. cards at 1% and U.S. cards at 1.6%. And whilst we are seeing some recovery year-on-year in unsecured lending, balances are well below pre-pandemic levels. We are tracking customer and client behavior very carefully, including patterns of spending in order to identify early signs of pressure from affordability.

繼續減值。我們報告了本季度 1 億英鎊的適度費用。這是與淨沖銷有關的第 3 階段減值，以及隨著經濟活動復甦而通過減值階段的一些預期遷移。企業的拖欠率穩定在低水平，英國卡的 30 天拖欠率為 1%，美國卡的拖欠率為 1.6%。儘管我們看到無擔保貸款同比有所回升，但餘額遠低於大流行前的水平。我們正在非常仔細地跟踪客戶和客戶的行為，包括支出模式，以便識別負擔能力壓力的早期跡象。

So far, we haven't seen any particular worrying indicators, but we have specifically considered affordability risks and have broadly maintained coverage levels with U.K. cards at 12.8% and U.S. cards at 10.4%. Further details on coverage ratios are included in the appendix.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何特別令人擔憂的指標，但我們已經特別考慮了負擔能力風險，並大致將英國卡的覆蓋率維持在 12.8% 和美國卡在 10.4% 的水平。有關覆蓋率的更多詳細信息包含在附錄中。

Turning now to the performance of our business. The U.K. income increased 5%, while costs decreased 3%, reflecting lower operational costs plus efficiency savings, partially offset by increased investment spend. We have started to implement the cost actions we reflected in the Q4 result, but it will be a while before we see the full expected benefit given the timing and payback.

現在轉向我們的業務表現。英國的收入增長了 5%，而成本下降了 3%，這反映了運營成本降低和效率節省，部分被投資支出的增加所抵消。我們已經開始實施我們在第四季度結果中反映的成本行動，但考慮到時間和回報，我們還需要一段時間才能看到全部預期收益。

The BUK RoTE was 15.6%, and we're feeling good about the momentum in the business. Finally, a few words on forward margin expectations for the U.K. The NIM for the quarter was 262 basis points, up 13 basis points on Q4, principally reflecting the effect of rate rises. There is still a lot of variables. But given the pass-through on the initial rate rises and the expectation of further rises, we're increasing our NIM guidance for the full year to 270 to 280 bps. That assumes the U.K. base rate reaches 1.75% by the end of the year.

BUK RoTE 為 15.6%，我們對業務的發展勢頭感到滿意。最後，談談英國的遠期利潤率預期。本季度 NIM 為 262 個基點，比第四季度上升 13 個基點，主要反映了加息的影響。還有很多變數。但考慮到初步加息和進一步加息的預期，我們將全年 NIM 指引上調至 270 至 280 個基點。假設英國基準利率在年底前達到 1.75%。

Turning now to Barclays International. BI income increased 10% to GBP 4.8 billion, while costs increased as a result of the conduct and litigation charges. Despite this, Strong business performance delivered a RoTE of 14.8%. I'll go into more detail on the next 2 slides, beginning with the CIB.

現在轉向巴克萊國際。 BI 收入增長 10% 至 48 億英鎊，而成本因行為和訴訟費用而增加。儘管如此，強勁的業務表現帶來了 14.8% 的 RoTE。我將在接下來的 2 張幻燈片中更詳細地介紹，從 CIB 開始。

Income was up 10% to GBP 3.9 billion. Excluding L&C, operating costs increased by just 2%, delivering strong positive jaws. In total, costs increased by 19%, reflecting the Q1 portion of the provision relating to the over issuance. There was a GBP 33 million net impairment release, reflecting an improved view of the watch list.

收入增長 10% 至 39 億英鎊。不包括 L&C，運營成本僅增加了 2%，帶來了強勁的積極影響。總體而言，成本增加了 19%，反映了與超額發行有關的第一季度撥備部分。釋放了 3300 萬英鎊的淨減值，反映了對觀察名單的改善看法。

Overall, the CIB generated a RoTE for the quarter of 17.1% despite the L&C charge, which impacted the RoTE by around 3 percentage points. Turning now to Consumer Cards and Payments.

總體而言，儘管有 L&C 費用，CIB 在本季度產生了 17.1% 的 RoTE，這對 RoTE 產生了約 3 個百分點的影響。現在轉向消費卡和支付。

Income in CCP increased 10%, reflecting growth across international cards payments and the private bank. The increase in costs was largely due to the L&C charge of close to GBP 200 million. There was also an increase in investment and marketing spend relating to the expansion of the business, including preparations for the GAAP partnership.

CCP 的收入增長了 10%，反映了國際卡支付和私人銀行的增長。成本增加主要是由於接近 2 億英鎊的 L&C 費用。與業務擴展相關的投資和營銷支出也有所增加，包括為 GAAP 合作夥伴關係做準備。

The impairment charge was GBP 134 million, reflecting the flow-through to delinquency in U.S. cards. The RoTE was minus 1.5%. But excluding the L&C charge, the RoTE would have been in double digits.

減值費用為 1.34 億英鎊，反映了美國信用卡拖欠的流向。 RoTE 為負 1.5%。但不包括 L&C 費用，RoTE 將達到兩位數。

Turning now to head office. The income of GBP 23 million included a one-off gain from the sale and leaseback of U.K. data centers of GBP 86 million. Costs were broadly in line with the usual run rate and the loss before tax for the quarter was GBP 73 million.

現在轉向總部。 2300萬英鎊的收入包括8600萬英鎊的英國數據中心售後回租一次性收益。成本與通常的運行率基本一致，本季度稅前虧損為 7300 萬英鎊。

Before I move to capital, a quick summary of our liquidity and funding. We remain highly liquid and well funded with a liquidity coverage ratio of 159% and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 68%.

在我轉向資本之前，快速總結一下我們的流動性和資金。我們保持高流動性和充足的資金，流動性覆蓋率為 159%，貸存比為 68%。

Moving on to capital. The CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 13.8%, comfortably within our target range of 13% to 14%. Our full year results, we flagged the effect of the announced buyback program and the regulatory changes, which took effect on January 1. These 2 elements reduced the year-end ratio on a pro forma basis to 13.9%.

轉向資本。 CET1 比率在本季度末為 13.8%，處於我們 13% 至 14% 的目標範圍內。我們的全年業績，我們標記了已宣布的回購計劃和監管變化的影響，這些變化於 1 月 1 日生效。這兩個因素將年終比率在備考基礎上降低至 13.9%。

The apportionment to Q4, a part of the charge relating to the overissuance, doesn't affect the headline year-end ratio. However, there was a further 19 basis points impact from the Q1 charges relating to the overissuance and associated RWA moves and a 6 bps headwind from the fair value reserve movements, principally caused by the higher rate environment.

第四季度的分攤是與超額發行有關的費用的一部分，不影響總體年終比率。然而，與超發和相關風險加權資產變動有關的第一季度費用進一步影響了 19 個基點，公允價值儲備變動帶來了 6 個基點的逆風，這主要是由較高的利率環境造成的。

We would expect circa 12 bps of the overissuance impact to reverse when the related hedges are no longer required. Underlying capital generation was strong with 51 bps accretion from profit. This was partially offset by increased RWA deployment as we would expect in Q1.

當不再需要相關對沖時，我們預計大約 12 個基點的過度發行影響將逆轉。基礎資本產生強勁，利潤增長 51 個基點。正如我們在第一季度所預期的那樣，這部分被 RWA 部署的增加所抵消。

Looking at our capital requirements. Our MDA hurdle is 11% so we have comfortable headroom at current levels. There are a couple of factors affecting the ratio over the balance of the year that I want to mention.

看看我們的資本要求。我們的 MDA 障礙是 11%，因此我們在當前水平上擁有舒適的淨空。我想提一下，有幾個因素會影響這一年餘額中的比率。

Firstly, our recent disposal of Absa shares adds around 10 basis points to the capital ratio in Q2. Secondly, we expect to go into the triennial pension valuation as at September 30 in a surplus position, both from an IFRS and a funding point of view.

首先，我們最近出售的 Absa 股票使第二季度的資本比率增加了約 10 個基點。其次，從 IFRS 和資金的角度來看，我們預計截至 9 月 30 日的三年期養老金估值處於盈餘狀態。

Given the recent announcement from the PRA on structured contributions, we expect to unwind GBP 1.25 billion of contributions in Q4, which would otherwise have been spread over 2023, '24 and '25 from a capital point of view. Absent other impacts from the triennial, this could bring forward around 30 basis points reduction in the ratio.

鑑於 PRA 最近宣布了結構性供款，我們預計將在第四季度解除 12.5 億英鎊的供款，否則從資本角度來看，這些供款將分佈在 2023 年、24 年和 25 年。如果沒有三年期的其他影響，這可能會使該比率降低約 30 個基點。

I would note, however, that given the surplus position of the fund, the element of our Pillar 2A requirement for pension risk may reduce. Going forward, we are confident in the organic capital generation of the group.

然而，我要指出，鑑於基金的盈餘頭寸，我們的支柱 2A 對養老金風險的要求可能會減少。展望未來，我們對集團的有機資本產生充滿信心。

We announced with our annual results in February that we would be launching a GBP 1 billion buyback. In view of our ongoing discussions with the SEC concerning the impact on last year's 20-F filings of the overissuance of U.S. securities, which we announced on 28th of March, we are delaying the execution of the buyback until we have concluded these matters.

我們在 2 月份的年度業績中宣布，我們將發起 10 億英鎊的回購。鑑於我們正在與美國證券交易委員會就我們在 3 月 28 日宣布的過度發行美國證券對去年 20-F 申報文件的影響進行討論，我們將推遲執行回購，直到我們完成這些事項。

To be clear, this isn't a question of whether we will be proceeding with a buyback, but when. And we expect to be in a position to start towards the end of Q2. As we've said previously, the Board considers capital distributions regularly throughout the year. It isn't just a matter for annual discussion as you saw in 2021.

需要明確的是，這不是我們是否會進行回購的問題，而是何時進行的問題。我們預計能夠在第二季度末開始。正如我們之前所說，董事會在全年定期考慮資本分配。正如您在 2021 年看到的那樣，這不僅僅是年度討論的問題。

Finally, on leverage, our spot leverage ratio was 5%, and the average U.K. leverage was 4.8%. So, to recap, we reported statutory earnings per share of 8.4p for Q1 and generated an 11.5% RoTE despite the litigation and conduct charges. The business performance is robust, and we're focused on delivering our target of double-digit RoTE this year and on a sustainable basis going forward.

最後，在槓桿方面，我們的現貨槓桿率為 5%，英國的平均槓桿率為 4.8%。因此，回顧一下，我們報告第一季度的法定每股收益為 8.4 便士，儘管存在訴訟和行為指控，但仍產生了 11.5% 的 RoTE。業務表現強勁，我們今年專注於實現兩位數的 RoTE 目標，並在可持續的基礎上向前發展。

We have an income tailwind from expected balance growth and rate rises in the consumer businesses, and the CIB franchise is in good shape after an excellent Q1 performance. Given the GBP 0.5 billion of litigation and conduct in Q1 '22, the increase in expectations for inflation and the strengthening of the dollar, we have seen some increase in our outlook for costs for this year, but we'll continue to review our expenditure plans and it's early in the year. But overall, we're comfortable with the current consensus of around GBP 15 billion for all-in costs.

我們從消費業務的預期餘額增長和利率上升中獲得了收入順風，在第一季度的出色表現之後，CIB 特許經營狀況良好。鑑於 22 年第一季度 5 億英鎊的訴訟和行為、通脹預期增加和美元走強，我們看到今年的成本前景有所增加，但我們將繼續審查我們的支出計劃，現在是年初。但總的來說，我們對目前約 150 億英鎊的總成本共識感到滿意。

Reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty, we have maintained strong coverage ratios and expect the run rate for impairment to be below the pre-pandemic levels over the coming quarters.

反映宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們保持了強勁的覆蓋率，並預計未來幾個季度的減值運行率將低於大流行前的水平。

Our capital ratio remains strong despite the Q1 L&C charges, and we remain confident of delivering attractive capital returns to shareholders whilst also investing for future growth. Thank you. And we will now take your questions. And as usual, I would ask that you limit yourself to 2 per person so we get a chance to get around to everyone.

儘管有第一季度的 L&C 費用，我們的資本比率仍然保持強勁，我們仍然有信心為股東提供有吸引力的資本回報，同時也為未來的增長進行投資。謝謝你。我們現在將回答您的問題。和往常一樣，我會要求您將自己限制為每人 2 人，以便我們有機會接觸到每個人。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jonathan Pierce from Numis.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Numis 的 Jonathan Pierce。

I've got 2 questions. The first one is just a numbers one. The hedge income looks like it could be pushing sort of GBP 2 billion, random by the time we get towards the end of the year. So can I just invite you to maybe tell us how much of that is actually gained in Barclays U.K. as opposed to CIB, please, that would help.

我有 2 個問題。第一個只是一個數字。到年底時，對沖收入看起來可能會達到 20 億英鎊，這是隨機的。因此，我能否請您告訴我們在英國巴克萊銀行實際獲得了多少，而不是 CIB，這將有所幫助。

The second question is a much broader one on these buybacks. Thanks for the clarity that it's a question of when, not if. But could you maybe just set out for us in a bit more detail what exactly needs to be done in the coming weeks to get the GBP 1 billion going? Is it purely the refiling of these 20-S? So is there anything that's more out of your control that we should be thinking about?

第二個問題是關於這些回購的一個更廣泛的問題。感謝您明確指出這是何時而非是否的問題。但是，您能否更詳細地為我們列出在未來幾週內究竟需要做什麼才能讓 10 億英鎊動起來？純粹是對這些 20-S 的重新歸檔嗎？那麼，我們應該考慮哪些更不受您控制的事情？

And sorry, just a supplementary to that and just maybe jumping the gun a bit. But capital accretion over the rest of the year organically, they should be pretty good as it often is in the last 9 months. I'm just wondering whether you think there's any scope given what's happened in the last couple of months, where there's any scope for the buyback to be topped up later this year, which I think may have been your intention at the full year results.

對不起，只是對此的補充，也許只是有點過頭了。但今年剩餘時間的資本自然增長，應該會像過去 9 個月的情況一樣非常好。我只是想知道你是否認為考慮到過去幾個月發生的事情有任何餘地，今年晚些時候有任何回購的餘地，我認為這可能是你對全年業績的意圖。

Okay. Thanks, Jonathan. I will take both of those. In terms of the structural hedge income, approximately 60% of it sits in the U.K. So hopefully, that's quite straightforward. And in relation to the other matter, so as a U.K. matter, we have concluded and agreed with our auditor and the U.K. regulators that there is no need for us to refile either BB plc or B plc in the U.K.

好的。謝謝，喬納森。我會拿這兩個。就結構性對沖收入而言，其中大約 60% 位於英國。所以希望這很簡單。關於其他事項，因此作為英國事項，我們已經與我們的審計師和英國監管機構達成並同意，我們無需在英國重新提交 BB plc 或 B plc。

We are deal in ongoing discussions with the SEC in relation to a requirement to potentially or possibly refile B plc, and we have concluded that we will refile BB plc. So you're right, it relates directly to that. And until we've concluded that, we have decided, so it's a Barclays decision, that we will delay the commencement of the buyback. What I would say, Jonathan, is that we're well progressed in our preparation. And in fact, the basis of that restatement is what we've actually printed today with a reattribution back in FY '21, and we've got really constructive discussions with the SEC.

我們正在與美國證券交易委員會就可能或可能重新提交 B plc 的要求進行討論，我們已經得出結論，我們將重新提交 BB plc。所以你是對的，它與此直接相關。在我們得出結論之前，我們已經決定，所以這是巴克萊的決定，我們將推遲回購的開始。喬納森，我想說的是，我們的準備工作進展順利。事實上，重述的基礎是我們今天實際印製的內容，並在 21 財年重新歸因，我們與 SEC 進行了非常建設性的討論。

So that's why we've positioned it as we have other as a when rather than an if. And you're right, we're really pleased with the capital print in the first quarter, and we feel like there's momentum in the business and actually across all 3 businesses. So we'll continue to consider our distribution plans for the rest of the year, but we would expect to accrete capital.

所以這就是為什麼我們把它定位為我們有其他的時候而不是如果。你說得對，我們對第一季度的資本印刷感到非常滿意，我們覺得業務發展勢頭良好，實際上所有 3 項業務都有。因此，我們將繼續考慮今年剩餘時間的分配計劃，但我們預計會增加資本。

We've guided today that we are still continuing to target double digits. So that's about 150 basis points, and we've delivered 51 from AP in the first quarter. So it does feel like the momentum is there, but it's something that we'll discuss with the Board.

我們今天已經指導我們仍然繼續以兩位數為目標。所以這大約是 150 個基點，我們在第一季度從 AP 交付了 51 個基點。所以感覺勢頭確實存在，但這是我們將與董事會討論的事情。

Typically, we discuss that throughout the year. It isn't just a matter for the year-end. You saw that last year, and I wouldn't believe it would be different this year.

通常，我們全年都在討論這個問題。這不僅僅是年終的事情。你去年就看到了，我不相信今年會有所不同。

Okay. That's really helpful. So just to be clear then. Once these 20-S 1 or 2 have been refiled, buyback will start, we're not waiting to see what the SEC is going to do with regards to potential fines or remedial action and control function, it's literally just the 20-S.

好的。這真的很有幫助。所以只是要清楚。一旦這些 20-S 1 或 2 被重新提交，回購將開始，我們不會等著看 SEC 在潛在罰款或補救行動和控制功能方面會做什麼，它實際上只是 20-S。

Correct.

正確的。

Our next question comes from Joseph Dickerson from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Joseph Dickerson。

Just a question on the provisioning. I guess if I look at the card coverage in the U.K. that's at 13%, I mean this is like almost an adverse outcome in a stress test. What's driving that level of conservatism given where we are on unemployment rate and household indebtedness and so forth. And more broadly, do you think that you're taking enough risk in unsecured. So 2 topics on unsecured.

只是關於配置的問題。我想如果我看看英國的卡覆蓋率為 13%，我的意思是這幾乎是壓力測試中的不利結果。鑑於我們在失業率和家庭債務等方面的情況，是什麼推動了這種程度的保守主義。更廣泛地說，你認為你在無擔保方面承擔了足夠的風險。所以2個關於不安全的主題。

And then also on the thing in the same area, could you just comment in terms of what you're seeing in terms of some of the higher frequency spend data? I mean your own monthly Barclay card survey shows areas such as nonessential spending are up like 17% on March of 2019. At some point, you think some of this is going to turn into revolve balances, particularly as travel picks up. Is that a correct assumption?

然後關於同一領域的事情，您能否就您所看到的一些較高頻率的支出數據發表評論？我的意思是你自己的巴克萊銀行卡月度調查顯示，非必要支出等領域在 2019 年 3 月增長了 17%。在某些時候，你認為其中一些將變成循環餘額，尤其是隨著旅行的增加。這是一個正確的假設嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. I'll take the provisioning. I'm sure that Venkat will have a view on risk and then I'll revert back on the high frequency data.

是的。謝謝，喬。我會接受供應。我確信 Venkat 會對風險有看法，然後我會回復高頻數據。

So when we were at the year-end, we were cautious and we were cautious about a few things. We were clearly cautious because we were at the what would appear to be the Omicron variance, we were cautious also about impending inflationary and affordability pressures.

所以在年底的時候，我們很謹慎，我們對一些事情很謹慎。我們顯然很謹慎，因為我們似乎處於 Omicron 差異，我們也對即將到來的通貨膨脹和負擔能力壓力保持謹慎。

I would say that since the year-end, our concerns about COVID have abated somewhat. But the tragic events in Ukraine and the ongoing impact of inflation around the world and how that plays into affordability that's probably changed that concern a little.

我想說，自年底以來，我們對 COVID 的擔憂有所減輕。但烏克蘭的悲慘事件和全球通貨膨脹的持續影響，以及這對負擔能力的影響，可能稍微改變了這種擔憂。

So we've been cautious, Joe, and that's why we've maintained coverage. You're right, unemployment forecasts are low. But the way I think about unemployment is we use it in the models as a shorthand for disposable income. So even though unemployment forecasts are low, it is absolutely certain that the affordability pressure is out there. And therefore, we will see some pressure on monthly disposable income, and that's why we've taken the position that we have.

所以我們一直很謹慎，喬，這就是我們保持報導的原因。你是對的，失業率預測很低。但我對失業的看法是我們在模型中使用它作為可支配收入的簡寫。因此，即使失業率預測很低，但絕對可以肯定的是，負擔能力壓力就在那裡。因此，我們將看到每月可支配收入面臨一些壓力，這就是我們採取這一立場的原因。

Venkat, what about the reposition?

Venkat，重新定位呢？

Yes. So Joe, you're absolutely right that, first of all, credit conditions otherwise are relatively benign. Obviously, with these inflation and cost of living pressures and interest rate rises consequently coming from central banks, there is a greater chance today than there was even 3 or 4 months ago that growth gets affected and employment gets affected later on this year.

是的。所以喬，你是絕對正確的，首先，信貸條件相對溫和。顯然，由於這些通脹和生活成本壓力以及利率上升來自中央銀行，與 3 或 4 個月前相比，今年晚些時候增長受到影響，就業受到影響的可能性更大。

Having said all of that, especially in unsecured, I would characterize this as a demand problem and not a supply problem. We have a -- we believe we have abundant risk appetite to lend unsecured, both in the U.K. and in the U.S. Obviously, we will do it where it's affordable to our customers and where it makes sense from a creditor's point of view. But credit risk is benign. So we are very much open for business, I'd like to say. And I think what you're seeing is a demand issue.

說了這麼多，尤其是在無擔保的情況下，我將其描述為需求問題而不是供應問題。我們有一個 - 我們相信我們有足夠的風險偏好來提供無擔保貸款，無論是在英國還是在美國。顯然，我們將在我們的客戶負擔得起並且從債權人的角度來看是有意義的地方進行貸款。但信用風險是良性的。所以我們非常開放，我想說。我認為你看到的是需求問題。

And we are also anticipating in the U.K. that as discretionary spending or nonessential spending rises into the summer with holidays, that we will see balanced growth. I think the U.K. is a little behind the U.S. in that.

我們還預計，在英國，隨著可自由支配支出或非必要支出隨著假期進入夏季，我們將看到平衡增長。我認為英國在這方面落後於美國。

I completely agree with that, Joe. And if we look at our high-frequency spend data, we can see purchases up in credit cards in the U.K. We can see actually payment volumes up when we look at our payments business, payment volumes are or the turnover is 17% up year-on-year.

我完全同意，喬。如果我們查看我們的高頻支出數據，我們可以看到在英國的信用卡購買量增加。當我們查看我們的支付業務時，我們可以看到實際支付量增加，支付量或營業額同比增長 17%-同年。

And actually, when we look back to 2019, which is the last year pre-COVID, our purchase volumes are up versus that as well. So there's definitely a recovery in spending. We continue to see elevated levels of repayment in cards in both the U.K. and the U.S., actually, which is probably some reflection both of consumer confidence and the large liability balances that we've seen accrete through the COVID period.

實際上，當我們回顧 2019 年，也就是 COVID 之前的最後一年時，我們的購買量也有所上升。因此，支出肯定會恢復。實際上，我們繼續看到英國和美國的信用卡還款水平有所提高，這可能反映了消費者信心和我們在 COVID 期間看到的巨額負債餘額。

So I think that will probably form a little bit of a dampening on growth. But essentially, what is happening is what we expected to happen, which is we're seeing purchases as a strong lead indicator, expect to see balanced growth from here and actually lending growth will probably follow that. Okay.

所以我認為這可能會抑制增長。但從本質上講，正在發生的事情就是我們預期會發生的事情，即我們將購買視為一個強有力的領先指標，期望從這裡看到平衡增長，實際上貸款增長可能會隨之而來。好的。

Our next question comes from Rohith Chandra-Rajan from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rohith Chandra-Rajan。

I had a couple, please. One on the CIB and one on costs. I mean, obviously, a great quarter for the CIB in Q1, and congratulations on that. But as Venkat mentioned, the CIB doesn't move in a straight line. So I was just wondering what the sort of market environment you were sort of baking in to support that 10% RoTE for the group for the full year, particularly for the CIB. So market environment for the CIB.

我有一對，拜託。一份關於CIB，一份關於費用。我的意思是，顯然，對於 CIB 來說，第一季度是一個很棒的季度，對此表示祝賀。但正如文卡特所提到的，CIB 並沒有直線移動。所以我只是想知道你在什麼樣的市場環境下支持全年集團 10% 的 RoTE，尤其是 CIB。所以CIB的市場環境。

And then linked to that. Just in terms of the controls review, is that specifically around the Structured Products business? Or is it broader based than that? And then the second area would just be -- I wonder if you could just provide a little bit more detail in how you're thinking on cost has changed. So the GBP 600 million to GBP 700 million increase in cost expectations for this year relative to previous guidance, how much of that is incremental litigation and conduct? How much is inflation? How much is performance related? How much is FX? So if you could provide any clarity around that, that would be really helpful.

然後鏈接到那個。就控制審查而言，是否專門針對結構化產品業務？或者它的基礎比這更廣泛？然後第二個領域就是——我想知道你是否可以提供更多細節，說明你對成本的看法已經發生了變化。因此，相對於之前的指導，今年的成本預期增加了 6 億英鎊至 7 億英鎊，其中有多少是增量訴訟和行為？通貨膨脹有多少？性能與多少有關？外匯是多少？因此，如果您能對此提供任何明確的說明，那將非常有幫助。

Thanks, Rohith. I will begin with the CIB and then Anna will cover costs. I think the market environment will continue to be, one, characterized by volatility, both in interest rates, in credit stress and in equities.

謝謝，羅希特。我將從 CIB 開始，然後 Anna 將承擔費用。我認為市場環境將繼續以波動為特徵，包括利率、信貸壓力和股票。

I obviously hope and don't anticipate that there will be the kind of severe shock to the system that the Russian invasion of Ukraine created in late February. But I'm thinking about it more like the environment that prevails, let's say, in January up to the Russian Ukraine invasion, and that is probably prevailing right now, now that, that shock has abated. So it is one characterized by higher volatility.

我顯然希望也不會預料到俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭在 2 月下旬對系統造成的那種嚴重衝擊。但我認為它更像是盛行的環境，比方說，在一月份俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，現在可能正在盛行，現在這種衝擊已經減弱。因此，它的特點是波動性較高。

And I think investors and clients -- investor clients and corporations will continue to have to reposition their portfolios dealing with that volatility and form views about how they want to take their risk profile, what they want to assume their risk profile going forward, which is not an easy thing.

而且我認為投資者和客戶——投資者客戶和公司將繼續不得不重新定位他們的投資組合以應對這種波動，並就他們希望如何承擔風險狀況、他們希望未來承擔的風險狀況形成看法，即不是一件容易的事。

More broadly, I think you are beginning to see a little bit of deal activity come back into the market. Obviously, the Elon Musk acquisition of Twitter for which we were an adviser and finance as has been reported has idiosyncratic elements to it. But it is, we think, a harbinger of some improved deal activity, and that will help the banking side.

更廣泛地說，我認為您開始看到一些交易活動重新進入市場。顯然，據報導，Elon Musk 收購 Twitter 時，我們擔任顧問和財務部，這具有特殊的元素。但我們認為，這是交易活動有所改善的預兆，這將有助於銀行業。

As far as the controls review itself goes, what's going on externally, which is focused very much on this particular incident. And from everything we've seen so far, there was no intentional misconduct, and it seems to be a relatively specific matter.

就控制審查本身而言，外部發生的事情非常關注這一特定事件。從目前我們所看到的一切來看，沒有故意的不當行為，這似乎是一個相對具體的問題。

Having said that, as I've said before, I take a control culture and a risk management culture extremely, extremely seriously, and I'm very disappointed when I see surprises like this. And so we will do whatever we need to do to ensure that we don't face such surprises. And if that means looking internally at other things, we will. But it is -- the most important thing to emphasize is a no surprise culture and learning from it when it happens. And I'll turn it to Anna on cost.

話雖如此，正如我之前所說，我非常非常重視控製文化和風險管理文化，當我看到這樣的驚喜時，我感到非常失望。因此，我們將盡我們所能確保我們不會面臨這樣的意外。如果這意味著在內部審視其他事物，我們會的。但它是 - 最重要的是要強調的是一種毫不奇怪的文化，並在它發生時從中學習。我會按成本把它交給安娜。

Okay. Thanks, Rohith. Yes, you're correct. We've guided to GBP 15 billion all-in cost this morning. I want to be clear that, that is a statutory number. So the movement that you are seeing is predominantly around L&C, about 500, I would say, and that that's really what's changed here. And we're clearly disappointed by that.

好的。謝謝，羅希特。是的，你是對的。我們今天早上已經指導了 150 億英鎊的總成本。我想明確一點，這是一個法定數字。所以你看到的運動主要圍繞 L&C，大約 500，我會說，這就是這裡真正改變的地方。我們顯然對此感到失望。

Let me help you understand how I think about costs. I think of it permanently as us working across 3 different factors. The first is what we invest to underpin the growth of the business. The second is how we drive efficiency programs through the business. And then the third is how we are managing headwinds from inflation and indeed from FX.

讓我幫助您了解我對成本的看法。我一直認為它是我們跨越 3 個不同因素的工作。首先是我們為支持業務增長而進行的投資。第二個是我們如何通過業務推動效率計劃。第三個是我們如何管理來自通脹和外彙的逆風。

What's different again is that the pressures around that third element are certainly higher than they were, although I'd remind you that whilst FX might be a headwind to cost, it's a tailwind for the P&L overall.

再次不同的是，圍繞第三個要素的壓力肯定比以前更高，儘管我要提醒您，雖然外匯可能是成本的逆風，但它對整體損益表來說是一個順風。

Typically, what we try and do is bring the net impact of those 3 as quite (inaudible) as you can so growth can drop to the bottom line. That is harder in the current environment, which is why we've given that guidance around all-in.

通常，我們嘗試和做的是盡可能地（聽不清）這三個因素的淨影響，這樣增長就會下降到底線。在當前環境下這更難，這就是為什麼我們給出了全押的指導。

We do have levers, though. And you've seen us be really disciplined in the first quarter. So whilst we've got revenue growth of 10%, we've got operating cost growth of 1% and we got positive jaws in all 3 of the businesses. So you should expect us to continue to be thoughtful and disciplined.

不過，我們確實有槓桿。你已經看到我們在第一季度真的很自律。因此，雖然我們的收入增長了 10%，但我們的運營成本增長了 1%，並且我們在所有 3 項業務中都取得了積極的進展。因此，您應該期望我們繼續深思熟慮和自律。

Could I just follow up on that, Ann, in terms of the levers. I mean, presumably, that inflationary pressure builds as we go into next year. So I think you talked about the potential deferral of investment spend. Would that be the key lever that you pull to manage a more inflationary environment for a year or two?

安，我可以就槓桿問題跟進一下嗎？我的意思是，大概，隨著我們進入明年，通脹壓力就會增加。所以我認為你談到了投資支出的潛在延期。這會是你用來管理一兩年內更加通脹的環境的關鍵槓桿嗎？

Yes. I think there was a few levers. There's such phasing of investments. Now clearly, we'll prioritize the investment that we think is strategically important. That's the right thing for the business.

是的。我認為有幾個槓桿。有這樣的投資階段。現在很明顯，我們將優先考慮我們認為具有戰略意義的投資。這對企業來說是正確的。

But we may push out decisions that are a bit more marginal. The second one would be driving efficiency harder. We clearly set off in Q4 of 2021 our BUK transformation, for example. That's not really going to deliver a whole load in 2022. But beyond that -- and that's simply because of the timing of when those investments start. From '23 onwards, you'd expect that start coming through. So obviously, driving efficiency really hard.

但我們可能會推出更邊緣化的決定。第二個將更加努力地提高效率。例如，我們在 2021 年第四季度明確啟動了 BUK 轉型。這並不能真正在 2022 年交付全部負載。但除此之外——這僅僅是因為這些投資開始的時間。從 23 年開始，您會期望它開始實現。很明顯，提高效率真的很難。

And then the third thing is just the timing and extent of any structural cost actions that we may choose to take. We've guided to being -- those being down materially year-on-year. And as we take them, we are thoughtful about the returns of the business at that point in time. So think of us pulling those 3 levers, Rohith.

然後第三件事就是我們可能選擇採取的任何結構性成本行動的時間和程度。我們已經指導成為 - 那些同比大幅下降的人。當我們接受它們時，我們會及時考慮業務的回報。所以想想我們拉這三個槓桿，Rohith。

Our next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Alvaro Serrano。

Just a couple of questions. On -- again, on the shelf notes issue and the review from the regulators. Apart from the refining, what do you think the potential range of outcomes could be? And in particular, I'm thinking if they do ask you to reinforce controls, is this a material source of cost inflation that we should potentially sort of have to think about?

只是幾個問題。關於 - 再次，關於貨架票據問題和監管機構的審查。除了精煉之外，您認為潛在的結果範圍可能是什麼？特別是，我在想，如果他們確實要求你加強控制，這是否是我們應該潛在地考慮的成本膨脹的一個重要來源？

And the other sort of question for me is a bit around the consumer, and I'm thinking U.K. But if there's any relevant comment in the U.S., that will be very welcome as well. Obviously, balances are not taking off yet. And the outlook, obviously, you now have the sort of the uptick in utility bills and potentially more in -- later in the year.

對我來說，另一個問題是關於消費者的，我在想英國。但如果在美國有任何相關的評論，那也將非常受歡迎。顯然，餘額還沒有起飛。顯然，展望未來，你現在看到了水電費的上漲，而且可能會在今年晚些時候出現更多上漲。

With that, you still are confident that it's going to grow. What drives that confidence? And what do you think is sort of has traveled the bigger sort of it still makes you the pickup and travel to, still makes you confident on that despite all the consumer squeeze?

有了這個，你仍然有信心它會增長。是什麼驅動了這種信心？你認為什麼是已經旅行的更大的東西，它仍然讓你接送和旅行，儘管消費者受到擠壓，仍然讓你對此充滿信心？

And I'm thinking obviously more in terms of demand and balance growth over the next few quarters, why you set off then?

而且我顯然更多地考慮了未來幾個季度的需求和平衡增長，你為什麼要開始呢？

Thanks, Alvaro. So let me begin on the structured note side and then Anna will cover the consumer balances. So look, first of all, on the cost estimate that we've given you. We've given you our best estimate at this point, which is primarily related to the recession offer itself and the financial risks around it, which we've hedged.

謝謝，阿爾瓦羅。因此，讓我從結構化票據方面開始，然後安娜將涵蓋消費者余額。所以，首先，看看我們給你的成本估算。目前，我們已經為您提供了我們的最佳估計，這主要與經濟衰退本身及其周圍的金融風險有關，我們已經對沖了這些風險。

The broader issue of our controls, it's early for me to say. Look, I think we're doing this external review. As I said, there is no -- from what we've seen, there has been no intention on misconduct and it appears to be an isolated manner. We, of course, will internally, as I said in an answer to the previous question, I hate surprises. And when surprises happen, I would like to look more broadly.

我們控制的更廣泛問題，我現在說還為時過早。聽著，我想我們正在做這個外部審查。正如我所說，沒有 - 從我們所看到的情況來看，沒有不當行為的意圖，這似乎是一種孤立的方式。當然，正如我在上一個問題的回答中所說，我們內部會討厭驚喜。當驚喜發生時，我想更廣泛地看待。

But we have spent a lot of time and money on improving the controlled culture of this bank since 2016, and we've done a lot. And if you look whether it's been financial risks or other risks that have been hitting the industry over the last many years. There are many things which we have avoided. So I feel good about what we have accomplished. Obviously, we did not achieve perfection. Otherwise, this would not have happened. So this is upsetting that it's happened.

但自 2016 年以來，我們花了很多時間和金錢來改善這家銀行的受控文化，而且我們做了很多工作。如果你看看在過去的許多年裡是金融風險還是其他風險一直在打擊這個行業。有很多事情是我們避免的。所以我對我們所取得的成就感覺良好。顯然，我們沒有達到完美。否則，這不會發生。所以這令人不安，它的發生。

But I take some comfort in everything that we have done so far, and we will continue to look, as you have to, after one of these things happen. But my hope and expectation is that this is a very specific matter.

但我對我們迄今為止所做的一切感到欣慰，在其中一件事情發生後，我們將繼續觀察，正如你必須要做的那樣。但我的希望和期望是，這是一個非常具體的問題。

Okay. Alvaro, I'll take the question on cards balances in the U.K. and the U.S. They all are different. So let me draw that out.

好的。 Alvaro，我將回答有關英國和美國信用卡餘額的問題。它們都是不同的。所以讓我把它畫出來。

So in the U.K., we are still confident. The reason for that is because of the trajectory and purchase activity that we see. And you're right, the mix within that, we might expect to tend towards travel as we head into the summer. I think the other thing just to remember is that as we went into COVID, we were risk off. We were conservative. We were cautious as we went into COVID. And that's a decision that we took at the time.

所以在英國，我們仍然有信心。原因是我們看到的軌跡和購買活動。你是對的，其中的混合，我們可能會在進入夏季時傾向於旅行。我認為要記住的另一件事是，當我們進入 COVID 時，我們是冒險的。我們很保守。當我們進入 COVID 時，我們很謹慎。這是我們當時做出的決定。

But since then we set back towards consumer risk in the U.K., as Venkat outlined previously. We're doing so in a thoughtful way, given the environment. But over time, us stepping back into the market to acquire cards will feed through into higher balances. So it's partly around purchasing behavior, but it's also that slide, we will affect of stepping back into the market.

但從那以後，正如 Venkat 之前概述的那樣，我們在英國又開始關註消費者風險。考慮到環境，我們正在以一種深思熟慮的方式這樣做。但隨著時間的推移，我們重新進入市場購買卡片將帶來更高的餘額。因此，這部分與購買行為有關，但也是那種下滑，我們將影響重返市場。

The U.S. is completely different. So in the U.S., we've seen balances grow by 2.6 billion in the year. They're up 13%. That's nearly all organic. We're seeing heightened purchase activity there, too. So that gives us confidence in terms of the organic growth of the stakes we already have borrowing on the cards. And then, of course, we had strong acquisitions throughout the back end of 2021 and you're starting to see that now coming on.

美國則完全不同。因此，在美國，我們看到餘額在一年中增長了 26 億。他們上漲了 13%。這幾乎都是有機的。我們也看到那裡的購買活動有所增加。因此，這讓我們對我們已經借入的賭注的有機增長充滿信心。然後，當然，我們在整個 2021 年底進行了強勁的收購，你現在開始看到這種情況正在發生。

Actually, what you see most of right now is the contra income of that, but that will again feed through to balances. And then inorganically, we've got gaps coming on board at the end of Q2 in the U.S. So I think we're constructive in both the U.K. and the U.S. for different reasons, but we'd expect balances to grow in both.

實際上，您現在看到的最多的是其對沖收入，但這將再次影響餘額。然後無機地，我們在美國第二季度末出現了差距。所以我認為出於不同的原因，我們在英國和美國都是建設性的，但我們預計兩者的平衡都會增長。

Our next question comes from Chris Cant from Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Chris Cant。

If I could just come back on the shelf issuance problem. First, could you explain in a bit more detail what you've done to size the potential impacts here in terms of the provision you've taken. Presumably, these instruments change hands several times. Do you have any obligation to compensate previous owners of the instruments or just the current holders?

如果我能回到貨架發行問題上。首先，您能否更詳細地解釋一下您為確定此處所採取的規定的潛在影響所做的工作。據推測，這些儀器易手數次。您是否有義務賠償這些工具的前所有者或僅賠償當前持有者？

I note that in today's release, you've indicated an unquantifiable contingent liability on a subset of the ETN. So when do you think you'll be in a position to quantify that potential risk?

我注意到，在今天的版本中，您已經在 ETN 的子集上指出了不可量化的或有負債。那麼你認為你什麼時候能夠量化這種潛在風險呢？

And then secondly, is there a risk of some regulatory fine here? I appreciate that you've indicated this was basically an unintentional error. It's not sort of a risk culture issue. But you have lost your well seasoned issuer status in the U.S. in 2017 then paid a fine. So I guess you're already on the Northeast step, for lack of a better term. Could that be a factor in how the regulator views the recent over-issuance problem?

其次，這裡是否存在一些監管罰款的風險？感謝您指出這基本上是一個無意的錯誤。這不是風險文化問題。但是您在 2017 年失去了在美國的經驗豐富的發行人身份，然後支付了罰款。所以我猜你已經在東北一步了，因為沒有更好的詞。這可能是監管機構如何看待最近的過度發行問題的一個因素嗎？

Okay. Thanks. Chris. What we've put in the financial statements this time is our best estimate at this stage. And you're right, it's focused on the structured notes rather than the ETNs. But we're just calling out that within the GBP 15 billion, the ETNs are GBP 2 billion of that over issuance.

好的。謝謝。克里斯。我們這次在財務報表中輸入的內容是我們現階段的最佳估計。你是對的，它專注於結構化筆記而不是 ETN。但我們只是呼籲在 150 億英鎊中，ETN 是超額發行的 20 億英鎊。

I can't go into detail on the way we've constructed the provision. What I would say is that there are differences in the products and the way that the products trade in the market, the underlying, the reason why we have treated them differently in the way that we called it out. So we are not able to determine if or what any liability would be with the ETNs, whereas with the equity structured notes, they performed differently in the market, and therefore, that's relatively clear.

我無法詳細說明我們構建條款的方式。我要說的是，產品以及產品在市場上的交易方式、底層證券以及我們以不同方式對待它們的原因都存在差異。因此，我們無法確定 ETN 是否或有什麼責任，而對於股權結構票據，它們在市場上的表現不同，因此，這是相對清楚的。

And as it relates to further discussions with the regulator, Venkat, you want to take that?

由於它涉及與監管機構 Venkat 的進一步討論，你想接受嗎？

Yes. I think the broad framework on this, and obviously, we can't forecast exactly what will happen, but I think the 2 to 3 things importantly to keep in mind.

是的。我認為這是一個廣泛的框架，顯然，我們無法準確預測會發生什麼，但我認為重要的 2 到 3 件事要牢記。

Number one is we seek at all times to have frank, open, harmonious relationships with our regulators. In that way, this issue has been escalated immediately to them was escalated immediately to them. We have regular discussions, and we're working constructively to resolve it. We have not, in the external review found any evidence yet of internal misconduct, any sign of internal misconduct.

第一是我們始終尋求與監管機構建立坦誠、開放、和諧的關係。這樣一來，這個問題就立即上報給他們，也立即上報給他們。我們定期進行討論，我們正在建設性地解決這個問題。在外部審查中，我們尚未發現任何內部不當行為的證據，任何內部不當行為的跡象。

I think all those are contributory. And -- but the ultimate outcome is -- our hope is to resolve this matter appropriately, offering the right remedies on the law to those who have been affected and working constructively with our regulators to end the matter.

我認為所有這些都是有貢獻的。而且 - 但最終結果是 - 我們希望適當地解決這個問題，為那些受到影響的人提供正確的法律補救措施，並與我們的監管機構進行建設性的合作來結束這個問題。

Next question comes from Omar Keenan from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Omar Keenan。

I've got one market question and one Barclays U.K. NIM/structural hedge question. So just on markets. So you talked about improved margins from historically low levels, an environment of business and volatility. And I understand that picture for FICC, and I can see that '22 is likely to be quite good for the franchise relative to last year, especially given the normalization of rates we had last year.

我有一個市場問題和一個巴克萊英國 NIM/結構性對沖問題。所以只是在市場上。因此，您談到了利潤率從歷史低位、商業環境和波動性提高的問題。我理解 FICC 的情況，我可以看到 22 年的特許經營權相對於去年可能會相當不錯，特別是考慮到我們去年的費率正常化。

But what I'm trying to understand is how you think the equities business will behave specifically and how volatility dependent do you think Barclays equity franchises versus how directional it is? I'm just trying to understand the likelihood of those businesses performing together as they did in the first quarter.

但我想了解的是您認為股票業務將如何具體表現，以及您認為巴克萊股票特許經營權與波動性的相關性與其方向性如何？我只是想了解這些企業在第一季度一起表現的可能性。

And then my second question is just on the Barclays U.K. NIM guidance. Could you just give us some color around the specific assumptions behind the revised NIM guidance. I think if we think about the number of Bank of England rate hikes that are now in the base, I think it's probably around 35 to 40 bps on average, something like that. Is that fair?

然後我的第二個問題是關於 Barclays U.K. NIM 的指導。您能否就修訂後的 NIM 指南背後的具體假設給我們一些顏色。我認為，如果我們考慮英格蘭銀行目前處於基礎的加息次數，我認為平均可能在 35 到 40 個基點左右，類似這樣。這公平嗎？

And just on a question related to the structural hedge. I just wonder how much you're thinking about how to manage the structural hedge given the shape of the yield curve and what you're expecting from interest rates. I'm just wondering if the bias is going to be for yields to head up whether you'd be tempted to shorten digit duration a bit without suffering on yield to increase your year 2 to year 4 rate sensitivity.

只是關於一個與結構性對沖有關的問題。我只是想知道鑑於收益率曲線的形狀以及您對利率的預期，您在考慮如何管理結構性對沖。我只是想知道，這種偏見是否會導致收益率上升，您是否願意稍微縮短數字期限而不影響收益率以提高您的第 2 年至第 4 年利率敏感性。

Yes. Thanks, Omar. Let me begin with the markets questions, and then both the NIM and the structural hedge, I'll turn it over to Anna to answer.

是的。謝謝，奧馬爾。讓我從市場問題開始，然後是淨息差和結構性對沖，我將把它交給安娜來回答。

On the market side, you asked about both FICC and equities, let me say 2 things. First on FICC, there is higher volatility on the trading side. On the equity side as well, I think there has been a period since last year, it's been slightly different things, but it's been increased volatility in the equity market since last year.

在市場方面，您詢問了 FICC 和股票，讓我說兩件事。首先在 FICC 上，交易方面的波動性較高。在股票方面，我認為自去年以來有一段時間，情況略有不同，但自去年以來股市波動性增加。

At the start of the year, as you remember, it was very idiosyncratic, single stock movements, the mean stock as they call them. It has become more broad-based now with higher interest rates and greater volatility in indices. And I think one way to think about it for us is we have both a strong cash and a strong derivatives franchise, and the derivatives franchise tends to benefit from increased volatility.

正如你所記得的，在今年年初，這是非常特殊的單一股票走勢，他們稱之為平均股票。現在，隨著利率上升和指數波動性增加，它的基礎更加廣泛。我認為對我們來說考慮的一種方式是，我們既有強大的現金，也有強大的衍生品專營權，而衍生品專營權往往會從波動性增加中受益。

And the one thing I'd like you to also keep in mind, both for fixed income and equity, is how much we have been making progress in what I would call financing and financing based revenues, which are a little subject to volatility, but are much more stable fee-like income.

對於固定收益和股票，我還希望您牢記一件事，那就是我們在我所說的融資和基於融資的收入方面取得了多大進展，這有點容易受到波動的影響，但是是更穩定的收費收入。

So obviously, equity prime has been a growth area, and we sort of called it out in our slides with a 40% growth over a 4-year period ending in 2021, but even a 10% growth in the first quarter of this year.

很明顯，優質股票一直是一個增長領域，我們在幻燈片中稱其在截至 2021 年的 4 年期間增長了 40%，但今年第一季度甚至增長了 10%。

And then fixed income financing, of which we are a leading participant in the market, top 3, if not top 2, has been low in absolute revenues for the past number of years with rates being very low, spreads being very low, rate wall and spread wall being very low, but it's starting to pick up with widening credit spreads and higher interest rates.

然後是固定收益融資，我們是市場的主要參與者，前 3 名，如果不是前 2 名，在過去幾年中絕對收入一直很低，利率非常低，利差非常低，利率牆利差牆非常低，但隨著信貸利差擴大和利率上升，它開始回升。

So I think that combination of financing revenue across equity and fixed income is something we have been strong in, we continue to invest in. And it is fee like income. But in markets like this, I would anticipate that, that continues and some of it is really quite independent of market with franchise revenues.

因此，我認為股票和固定收益的融資收入相結合是我們一直很擅長的，我們會繼續投資。而且它是收費的收入。但在這樣的市場中，我預計這種情況會繼續下去，其中一些市場確實完全獨立於特許經營收入的市場。

Thanks for the question, Omar. And so Barclays U.K. NIM guidance, we've guided today that we expect to be between 270 and 280 bps for the year. The key assumption there is we are assuming that we exit the year with a base rate of 1.75%.

謝謝你的問題，奧馬爾。因此，巴克萊英國 NIM 指導，我們今天指導我們預計今年將在 270 至 280 個基點之間。關鍵假設是我們假設我們以 1.75% 的基準利率退出這一年。

And I would say the assumptions within that. Let me tell you about what I think the levers are. The first is clearly that base rate move. And we've seen today, I would say, a little pass-through or low levels of pass-through. I would expect pass-through increase as rates continue to rise.

我會說其中的假設。讓我告訴你我認為槓桿是什麼。首先顯然是基準利率變動。我會說，我們今天已經看到了一點傳遞或低水平的傳遞。隨著利率繼續上升，我預計通過率會增加。

Of course, it's difficult to call specifics. We've not been on this pathway in the U.K. for quite some time. But in general, I would expect pass-through rates to increase somewhat from here.

當然，很難說具體的。我們已經有一段時間沒有在英國走這條路了。但總的來說，我預計通過率會從這裡有所增加。

The second thing is obviously the structural hedge, and I'll come back to that in a little bit more detail. But obviously, the structural hedge will increase in income terms over time, and that adds to that build in our NIM. And then there's probably one which is a bit more of a dampener, which is obviously what we're seeing in terms of mortgage margins.

第二件事顯然是結構性對沖，我將更詳細地討論這一點。但顯然，隨著時間的推移，結構性對沖會在收入方面增加，這增加了我們 NIM 的構建。然後可能有一個更像是一個阻尼器，這顯然是我們在抵押貸款利潤率方面所看到的。

The mortgage margins are definitely very competitive. And whilst we like the business and are pleased with our growth, just the mix effect will have a dampening effect on NIM, but obviously, a positive impact on NII in cash terms. The wildcard is really what happens to cards balances. So that one is a little bit more difficult to call.

抵押貸款利潤率絕對是非常有競爭力的。雖然我們喜歡這項業務並對我們的增長感到滿意，但僅混合效應將對 NIM 產生抑製作用，但顯然，以現金計算對 NII 產生積極影響。通配符實際上是卡餘額發生的事情。所以那個更難調用。

The thing I'll just say about base rates before I go on to structural hedges. Whilst we're calling that we are using a 1.75% exit rate, the rises in Q3 and Q4 don't really have that much effect on 2022, both because of the timing. And obviously, we're assuming an escalated pass-through as we go on.

在我繼續結構性對沖之前，我只想說一下基本利率。雖然我們稱我們使用的是 1.75% 的退出率，但由於時機原因，第三季度和第四季度的上漲對 2022 年的影響並不大。顯然，我們假設我們繼續進行升級的傳遞。

Just coming to the structural hedge. And the structural hedge is there to dampen the volatility from interest rates in the U.K. and indeed then generally across our banking products. It's not an expression of how we feel about rates. And to that extent, when we move that hedge around, typically, what we're doing is we're extending it in quantum to reflect higher deposits. We are not doing anything else. So we are not intending to change it in terms of duration at this point.

剛剛進入結構性對沖。結構性對沖是為了抑制英國利率的波動，實際上是整個銀行產品的波動。這不是我們對費率的感受的表達。在這種情況下，當我們移動對沖時，通常情況下，我們正在做的是在數量上擴展它以反映更高的存款。我們沒有做任何其他事情。因此，我們目前不打算在持續時間方面對其進行更改。

It's a caterpillar. So 160 of it will reprice every month. So just to reiterate, though, taking all of those things together, we're guiding up on NIM because all of those things are net benefit to the overall income of the U.K.

這是一隻毛毛蟲。因此，其中 160 個將每月重新定價。因此，重申一下，不過，綜合所有這些因素，我們正在指導 NIM，因為所有這些因素都是對英國整體收入的淨收益。

That's all. If I could just ask a quick follow-up question. So you've kept your rate guidance of 275 million for (inaudible). Should we take that as a signal that, that will be the rate sensitivity for the next type?

就這樣。如果我能問一個快速的後續問題。因此，您保持了 2.75 億的利率指導（聽不清）。我們是否應該將其視為一種信號，這將是下一種類型的速率敏感度？

That's a more general disclosure, Omar. That's -- it's difficult to be specific about any particular rate hike, and we would not do that.

這是一個更普遍的披露，奧馬爾。那是 - 很難具體說明任何特定的加息，我們不會那樣做。

It's quite dynamic because of not just the timing of them, so it depends where you are on the curve, for example. But it's also because we're making multiple decisions across different businesses. It will be different in corporate versus the U.K., et cetera. So don't think of it as an expression of improvement, it's a sensitivity.

它非常動態，不僅僅是因為它們的時間，所以它取決於你在曲線上的位置，例如。但這也是因為我們正在針對不同的業務做出多項決策。在企業與英國等方面，情況會有所不同。所以不要認為它是一種改進的表現，它是一種敏感性。

Our next question comes from Ed Firth from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ed Firth。

I just had 2 questions, please. The first one was really about credit. I hear what you say about sort of conservatism and caution on the outlook. But if I look on Page 18, you've got your variables that you use for your expected loss computations. In that, you've got U.K. GDP in your base case, you are growing at 5.7% this year and 2.5% next year. And if you look at the probability table below that, you've actually got a probability wait to do better than that.

我只有2個問題，拜託。第一個真的是關於信用。我聽到你所說的保守主義和對前景的謹慎態度。但是，如果我查看第 18 頁，您已經獲得了用於計算預期損失的變量。在這個基礎上，你的基本情況是英國 GDP，今年增長 5.7%，明年增長 2.5%。如果你看看下面的概率表，你實際上有一個概率等待做得比這更好。

And yes, I mean consensus is what, it's almost 2% below that for this year and even low again for next. So seems to me you've been quite aggressive and you expected loss assumptions. So I guess my first question would be, am I reading that right? What is the sensitivity, right? If you were to put more of a sort of consensus view of growth expectations in your (inaudible) how might that affect your expected loss of computation? So that would be my first question.

是的，我的意思是共識是什麼，它比今年低了近 2%，明年甚至更低。所以在我看來，您一直非常激進，並且您期望損失假設。所以我想我的第一個問題是，我讀對了嗎？什麼是靈敏度，對吧？如果您要在您的（聽不清）中加入更多關於增長預期的共識觀點，這將如何影響您預期的計算損失？所以這將是我的第一個問題。

The second one was really one for Venkat, really a broader strategy question, Venkat. Because I mean I guess now you've had a bit of time in place. One of the frustrations I have with Barclays is if you look at your CIB business, I mean, it's just smashed expectations again and again. And again, this quarter, you're 40%, 50% ahead of what everybody was thinking. And yet you look at the market reaction again today, everybody shrug their shoulders and one (inaudible).

第二個問題實際上是 Venkat 的問題，實際上是一個更廣泛的戰略問題，Venkat。因為我的意思是我想現在你已經有一些時間了。我對巴克萊的挫敗感之一是，如果你看看你的 CIB 業務，我的意思是，它只是一次又一次地打破了人們的期望。再說一次，這個季度，你比每個人的想法都超前 40%、50%。然而你今天再看市場反應，每個人都聳了聳肩，一個（聽不清）。

As a sort of CEO looking at it a fresh, is there anything you can do about this? Do you think? I mean, are you looking at how can you get people to start giving you value for the performance in that business. And I think I don't you've talked in the past about floating some of it off, can you split it up and give us more visibility on the sort of stable underlying earnings because it must be immensely frustrating for you and for everybody who works there that these earnings are just basically ignored.

作為一個全新的 CEO，你有什麼可以做的嗎？你認為？我的意思是，您是否正在考慮如何讓人們開始為您在該業務中的表現提供價值。而且我想我不認為你過去曾說過要浮動一些，你能把它分開，讓我們對穩定的基本收益有更多的了解，因為這對你和每個人來說一定是非常令人沮喪的在那里工作，這些收入基本上被忽略了。

Thanks, Ed. I'll take the first question and then I'll hand over to Venkat. So on your question around our macroeconomic variables, we didn't update those in the quarter. We rolled them forward from Q4, which is what you're seeing.

謝謝，埃德。我會回答第一個問題，然後交給 Venkat。因此，關於您關於宏觀經濟變量的問題，我們沒有在本季度更新這些變量。我們從第四季度開始將它們向前推進，這就是您所看到的。

And they clearly changed towards the back end of the quarter or I'll be specific, consensus changed towards the back end of the quarter and we didn't update for that. But we don't think that's significant. The reason why I say that is GDP not a big driver of ECL in our models. The one that really matters is the unemployment rate. And actually, if anything, if you look at our unemployment metrics that we are feeding into the models, they are on the conservative side. And really, much of the conservatism that we are pacing here relates to our post model adjustment, and you can see that in the disclosure and actually see that in the way that the coverage ratios. That's why the Stage 2 coverage ratios are elevated because that's where the P&A sits.

他們顯然在本季度末發生了變化，或者我會具體一點，共識在本季度末發生了變化，我們沒有為此更新。但我們認為這並不重要。我之所以這麼說，是因為 GDP 在我們的模型中並不是 ECL 的主要驅動因素。真正重要的是失業率。實際上，如果有的話，如果您查看我們輸入模型的失業指標，它們是保守的。實際上，我們在此處步調的大部分保守主義都與我們的模型後調整有關，您可以在披露中看到這一點，並且實際上以覆蓋率的方式看到這一點。這就是第二階段覆蓋率提高的原因，因為那是 P&A 所在的位置。

So yes, the macroeconomic variables are important. Some of them are more important than others. And I would say that unemployment is the one you should really watch. But our PMAs are a significant part of our post model -- sorry, of our nondefaulted stock levels. So we're pretty comfortable with it. Venkat?

所以，是的，宏觀經濟變量很重要。其中一些比其他更重要。我會說失業是你真正應該關注的。但是我們的 PMA 是我們後期模型的重要組成部分——抱歉，我們的非違約庫存水平。所以我們對它很滿意。文卡特？

Sorry, can I just have one quick follow-up on that? I mean you still got a 47% probability weighting for an upside and only a 20% weighting to a downside. I mean, should we expect that to be a bit more cautious as we go through the year?

抱歉，我可以快速跟進一下嗎？我的意思是你仍然有 47% 的概率權重是上漲的，只有 20% 的權重是下跌的。我的意思是，我們是否應該期望在這一年中更加謹慎？

So the probability weighting is actually a modeled output ad, and we can spend a bit more time with you on this outside of here, if you want. But essentially, it's mathematically derived from the divergence between the scenarios.

因此，概率加權實際上是一個建模的輸出廣告，如果您願意，我們可以在此之外花更多時間與您討論。但本質上，它在數學上是從場景之間的差異中推導出來的。

So the further apart they are the more -- the lower the probability in simple terms. So it's not an active decision we make. It's actually a mathematical output of the palm place, but we can tie through that in a bit more detail.

因此，它們之間的距離越遠——簡單來說概率越低。所以這不是我們做出的積極決定。它實際上是手掌位置的數學輸出，但我們可以更詳細地了解它。

Thanks for the second question, Ed. So first of all, what I would like to say is if you take a 5- to 6-year perspective on the bank going back. There were 2 questions about Barclays on the CIB. One was, should we have a CIB? And the second is if we had CIB, would we be any good at it?

謝謝你的第二個問題，埃德。所以首先，我想說的是，如果你從 5 到 6 年的角度來看銀行回歸。 CIB上有2個關於巴克萊的問題。一個是，我們應該有一個CIB嗎？第二個是如果我們有 CIB，我們會擅長它嗎？

On the first question of should we have a CIB, I think the argument which we made in 2016 was that it was an important source of diversification for the bank. And I think the event through 2020 and '21 and in fact early '22 have shown that, that was true.

關於我們是否應該擁有 CIB 的第一個問題，我認為我們在 2016 年提出的論點是，它是銀行多元化的重要來源。而且我認為到 2020 年和 21 年以及實際上 22 年初的事件已經表明，這是真的。

So I think that question of should we have a CIB sort of, I think, off the table. But equally, because of that, the corollary is that we very much wanted to be part of what this business is about or what Barclays bank is about. The second question if you were -- if you had a CIB, would you be any good at it? I think your own kind words describing our performance.

所以我認為我們是否應該有一個CIB 的問題，我認為，不在討論範圍之內。但同樣，正因為如此，我們非常想成為這項業務或巴克萊銀行業務的一部分。第二個問題，如果你是——如果你有一個 CIB，你會擅長它嗎？我想你自己的客氣話來描述我們的表現。

I would take as evidence that, that question should be moving off the table because I think we are showing that we are actually reasonably good at it. So then the broader strategy question is, well, the question you're asking is, well, but you don't seem to be getting a credit for it in the share price. Well, it has the salutary effect of making me a more patient human being. But beyond that, I think the question really is conversion of the earnings into buybacks and capital return. And clearly, the events of this quarter have delayed that satisfaction just a bit.

我將作為證據表明，這個問題應該從桌面上移開，因為我認為我們表明我們實際上相當擅長這個問題。那麼，更廣泛的戰略問題是，嗯，你要問的問題是，嗯，但你似乎沒有在股價中得到功勞。嗯，它有使我成為一個更有耐心的人的有益效果。但除此之外，我認為問題實際上是將收益轉化為回購和資本回報。顯然，本季度的事件稍微推遲了這種滿足感。

And the second is consistency. So I think what you should expect from us from a strategic point of view is to keep to the diversification, to keep to try and producing good earnings, to keep to try with our objective of a decent return of capital to shareholders, and then the story will find it's success.

第二個是一致性。所以我認為從戰略的角度來看，你應該對我們的期望是保持多元化，繼續努力創造良好的收益，繼續努力實現我們為股東帶來可觀的資本回報的目標，然後故事會發現它的成功。

But sorry, if I could just come back with just one question. I mean, there must be some elements of that business, which is what I call the sort of core recurring business. I mean, I'll be honest, I've got absolutely no idea what CIB revenue is going to be this year, and I guess you probably don't either. So -- but that does make it very difficult for investors to put any value to it in a meaningful manner. But I guess within the business, there must surely be sort of underlying revenue, which we do know what it's going to make this year, which we could perhaps highlight in some way. Is there something in that or not?

但是對不起，如果我能只問一個問題。我的意思是，該業務必須有一些元素，這就是我所說的核心經常性業務。我的意思是，老實說，我完全不知道 CIB 今年的收入會是多少，我猜你可能也不知道。所以 - 但這確實讓投資者很難以有意義的方式為其賦予任何價值。但我想在業務中，肯定有某種潛在的收入，我們確實知道今年會產生什麼，我們或許可以以某種方式強調這一點。裡面有什麼嗎？

Yes. Yes, so I think there is. So let me try to do it for you in a qualitative way without giving you numbers.

是的。是的，所以我認為有。所以讓我嘗試以定性的方式為你做這件事，而不給你數字。

First of all, you've heard us talk a lot about financing. With equity financing and fixed income financing, equity financing is what we call our prime business. This is where we have balances from investors around the world who want to borrow against stock and/or borrow against bonds, and they keep balances with us.

首先，你聽我們談了很多關於融資的話題。在股權融資和固定收益融資中，股權融資就是我們所說的主要業務。這就是我們從世界各地想要藉入股票和/或借入債券的投資者那裡獲得餘額的地方，他們與我們保持餘額。

We've shown you that the prime balances in our businesses have grown tremendously, 40%, I think '18 to '21, another 10% in the first quarter of this year. And what that -- those are franchise relationships that endure. And they've happened because we've invested in that business, and we've had some competitors who've exited that business, and we've been able to gain some market share from it. That is one part of the business that is relatively repeatable.

我們已經向您展示了我們業務的主要餘額大幅增長，我認為 18 到 21 年增長了 40%，今年第一季度又增長了 10%。那是什麼 - 那些是持久的特許經營關係。它們之所以發生，是因為我們已經投資了該業務，並且我們已經有一些競爭對手退出了該業務，我們已經能夠從中獲得一些市場份額。這是相對可重複的業務的一部分。

When you think broadly inside the CIB and capital markets, both debt capital markets and equity capital markets, again, they also make a bit quarter-to-quarter, but the size of the capital market has been growing, and we expect that to continue to grow. Expect us to get a certain share, which we hope is an increasing share of that issuance market, and we have been always historically very strong in debt and are getting stronger in equity, and you expect to see that and the associated revenues.

當您在 CIB 和資本市場中廣泛思考時，無論是債務資本市場還是股權資本市場，它們也按季度有所增長，但資本市場的規模一直在增長，我們預計這種情況會持續下去成長。預計我們將獲得一定的份額，我們希望這是該發行市場中越來越大的份額，而且我們在歷史上一直在債務方面非常強大，並且在股票方面越來越強，您希望看到這一點以及相關的收入。

And then there's a part about trading, where again, I think you should expect a certain base amount, which will come every day because portfolios need to be rebalanced, people take new positions and people have to trade and rebalance with people on Wall Street like we -- like us.

然後是關於交易的部分，我認為你應該期待一個一定的基礎金額，因為投資組合需要重新平衡，人們需要新的頭寸，人們必須與華爾街的人進行交易和重新平衡，比如我們——喜歡我們。

And on top of that, there is an element which comes from either very special situations, like the ones we spoke about earlier today, or because of higher volatility in the markets, which means people need to rebalance their portfolios more than they normally do because it's moved because of market movements or because they're taking position.

最重要的是，有一個因素來自非常特殊的情況，例如我們今天早些時候談到的情況，或者是由於市場波動性更高，這意味著人們需要比平時更多地重新平衡他們的投資組合，因為它的移動是因為市場波動或因為他們正在建立頭寸。

We're seeing a bit of that now. I anticipate that this year will have a higher level of that volatility simply because of rising interest rates and the adjustments people need to make in their fixed income portfolios and their equity portfolios because of equity volatility. I expect that to be higher this year. Can I tell you what that is 3 years from now? No.

我們現在看到了一點。我預計今年將出現更高水平的波動，這僅僅是因為利率上升以及人們因股票波動而需要對其固定收益投資組合和股票投資組合進行調整。我預計今年會更高。我能告訴你3年後那是什麼嗎？不。

Next question, please. And the next question will be the last one for today.

下一個問題，請。下一個問題將是今天的最後一個問題。

The final question we have time for today comes from Martin Leitgeb from Goldman Sachs.

我們今天有時間討論的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Martin Leitgeb。

And also congratulations on the strong print today. Just quickly 2 follow-up questions, one on U.K. cards and one on the CIB. And I was just wondering on the U.K. cards, if there's anything specifically to call out for Barclays performance, just it seems like at the market share in terms of credit card balances in the U.K. keeps dropping lower, even though there have been a comment about a year ago about your intention to lean back into the recovery and regain some of the market share last year. I was just wondering how shall we think about the card progression balances going forward. Would that be in line with market that you are roughly contend kind of a market share of around 15%? Or would you also see an ambition to regain some of the market share in U.K. cards?

也祝賀今天的強勁印刷。很快 2 個後續問題，一個關於英國卡，一個關於 CIB。我只是想知道關於英國的信用卡，如果有什麼特別需要說明巴克萊的表現，就好像英國信用卡餘額的市場份額一直在下降，儘管有評論說一年前，關於您打算回歸復甦並在去年重新獲得部分市場份額的打算。我只是想知道我們應該如何看待未來的卡牌進度平衡。這是否符合您大致認為市場份額約為 15% 的市場？或者您是否還會看到重新奪回英國卡市場份額的雄心？

And secondly, on the CIB. I was just wondering you called out share gains in prime financing. I was just wondering if you could comment how you see the competitive landscape evolving? Are there still opportunities out there for further share gains? Or could you actually see some of that reversing with some of the European banks pushing back in terms of revenue ambitions?

其次，在 CIB 上。我只是想知道你在優質融資中提到了股票收益。我只是想知道您是否可以評論一下您如何看待競爭格局的演變？是否還有進一步股價上漲的機會？或者你真的可以看到一些歐洲銀行在收入雄心方面有所回落嗎？

Okay. Thank you, Martin. I'll take the first and then pass to Venkat. So your question is about U.K. cards and Barclay's specific performance. I think the first thing to say is that we are in cards and actually nowhere else, exactly the same.

好的。謝謝你，馬丁。我會拿第一個，然後傳給文卡特。所以你的問題是關於英國卡和巴克萊的具體表現。我認為首先要說的是，我們在紙牌中，實際上在其他任何地方都沒有，完全一樣。

We are not targeting a specific market share. That is not part of our philosophy. Our performance, I think, reflects the fact that we did step back from risk, we actually stepped back from risk post Brexit, and we stepped back at the beginning of the pandemic. And therefore, as we step back in, the response is not an immediate one. It takes a while for those customers to join us, to start to borrow and so on. So I think we would hope that we'll see balances grow over time from stepping back into that market, but it's not instantaneous.

我們沒有針對特定的市場份額。這不是我們哲學的一部分。我認為，我們的表現反映了這樣一個事實，即我們確實退出了風險，實際上我們在英國退歐後退出了風險，而且我們在大流行開始時就退出了。因此，當我們退後一步時，反應不是立即的。這些客戶需要一段時間才能加入我們，開始借款等等。因此，我認為我們希望我們會看到隨著時間的推移，從重返該市場開始，餘額會增加，但這不是一蹴而就的。

There is a delay. I think that's what we're seeing now. I think the other thing I would just say is it is our intention over time that we will reshape that business, and you're seeing evidence of us doing that now. So ensuring that we've got products that are focused on spend, not lend. So our Avios product launched in February. Too early to talk about specific numbers, but we're pleased with how that's going. So I think the cards business of the future isn't going to be a replica of the cards business of the past for quite a few reasons. Venkat?

有延遲。我想這就是我們現在看到的。我想我想說的另一件事是，隨著時間的推移，我們將重塑該業務，而您現在看到的證據表明我們正在這樣做。因此，確保我們擁有專注於支出而非借貸的產品。所以我們的 Avios 產品在 2 月推出。談論具體數字還為時過早，但我們對進展情況感到滿意。所以我認為未來的卡片業務不會復製過去的卡片業務，原因有很多。文卡特？

Yes. And Martin, thanks for the question. Look, with our competitors, we take them extremely seriously. We respect them. They are all strong professional banks, and many of them are bigger than us. The -- what I'll say to you is market share gains sort of come in 2 ways. One is if competitors exit a particular area, which has happened with certain products and certain banks. And then the second is more sustainably, how you continue to deal with your clients, the services you provide, the investments you make and your capabilities and the continuity which you have in strategy and client facilitation.

是的。還有馬丁，謝謝你的問題。看，對於我們的競爭對手，我們非常重視他們。我們尊重他們。他們都是實力雄厚的專業銀行，而且很多都比我們大。 - 我要對你說的是市場份額的增長有兩種方式。一種是競爭對手退出特定領域，某些產品和某些銀行會出現這種情況。第二個是更可持續的，你如何繼續與你的客戶打交道，你提供的服務，你所做的投資和你的能力，以及你在戰略和客戶服務方面的連續性。

We have been on this journey for a number of years with a consistent investment, a consistent approach to the strategy. We -- our footprint has remained relatively consistent, which is concentrated in the U.S. and Europe and in Asia, building it out slowly, but based in trading centers in Hong Kong, Singapore and India, and serving China on an offshore basis.

多年來，我們一直在這一旅程中堅持不懈地投資，採用一致的戰略方法。我們——我們的足跡保持相對一致，主要集中在美國、歐洲和亞洲，發展緩慢，但總部設在香港、新加坡和印度的貿易中心，並在離岸基礎上為中國服務。

There are things which we do. There are things which we don't do. What we do, we try to do really well. And we try to offer enough to customers and deal with them in enough product that they keep coming back to us. So I'm very hopeful that with the team which we have and the investments we make and the consistency in that strategy, that we'll continue to get customers coming back to us, leading, I believe, to market share.

有些事情是我們做的。有些事情我們不做。我們做什麼，我們努力做得很好。我們努力為客戶提供足夠的產品，並以足夠的產品與他們打交道，讓他們不斷地回到我們身邊。因此，我非常希望，憑藉我們擁有的團隊和我們所做的投資以及該戰略的一致性，我們將繼續讓客戶回到我們身邊，我相信，引領市場份額。

Okay. Thank you, everybody. We look forward to seeing many of you over the next few weeks. In the meantime, take care.

好的。謝謝大家。我們期待在接下來的幾週內見到你們中的許多人。與此同時，保重。

This presentation has now ended.

本次演講現已結束。