Barclays PLC (BCS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Barclays Third Quarter 2022 Results Analyst and Investor Conference Call. We will begin shortly. (Operator Instructions). Thanks for your patience.

歡迎參加巴克萊 2022 年第三季度業績分析師和投資者電話會議。我們將很快開始。 （操作員說明）。謝謝你的耐心。

Welcome to the Barclays Third Quarter 202 Results Analyst and Investor Conference Call. I will now hand you over to CS Venkatakrishnan, group Chief Executive; and Anna Cross, group Finance Director.

歡迎參加巴克萊 202 年第三季度業績分析師和投資者電話會議。我現在將您交給集團首席執行官 CS Venkatakrishnan；和集團財務總監 Anna Cross。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am pleased to report another strong quarter extending the robust operating performance that Barclays has delivered so far this year. In the third quarter, profit before taxes was GBP 2 billion, generating a return on tangible equity of 12.5% and an earnings per share of 9.4p. This leaves us in a good position to deliver our full year statutory return on tangible equity target of above 10%.

大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我很高興地報告另一個強勁的季度，延續了巴克萊今年迄今為止的強勁經營業績。第三季度，稅前利潤為 20 億英鎊，有形股本回報率為 12.5%，每股收益為 9.4 便士。這使我們能夠很好地實現全年有形資產法定回報率超過 10% 的目標。

I would like to highlight, in particular, the strength and consistency of our results as we continue to execute on our business. We see broad-based income momentum across all our 3 operating businesses. Group income growth was 17% in third quarter year-on-year excluding the impact from the over-issuance of securities, a subject to which I'll return to in a moment.

我想特別強調我們在繼續執行業務時結果的強度和一致性。我們看到我們所有 3 項運營業務的收入增長勢頭廣泛。剔除證券過度發行的影響，第三季度集團收入同比增長 17%，我稍後會回到這個主題。

There were several important drivers of this performance that I wish to highlight. First, in the Corporate and Investment Bank, we continue to gain revenue share in our markets business, driving the best Q3 income in both markets and fixed income, FICC, in recent years. Notably, our FICC performance was particularly strong and ahead of our U.S. peers with income up 63% in dollars as we supported our clients in very challenging markets. In Barclays U.K., we positioned ourselves well for rising interest rates with a growing contribution from our structural hedge as we locked in higher yields.

我想強調一下這種表現的幾個重要驅動因素。首先，在企業和投資銀行方面，我們繼續在市場業務中獲得收入份額，推動了近年來市場和固定收益 FICC 的最佳第三季度收入。值得注意的是，我們的 FICC 表現特別強勁，領先於美國同行，收入增長 63%，因為我們在極具挑戰性的市場中為客戶提供支持。在英國巴克萊銀行，隨著我們鎖定更高的收益率，我們的結構性對沖貢獻越來越大，我們為利率上升做好了準備。

Within the Consumer Cards and Payments business, growth in our U.S. Card balances was delivered by a recovery in spending and the first quarter of our partnership with GAP, which is starting to show results. Taken together, both balanced growth and the management of our sensitivity to higher interest rates contributed to significant growth in the net interest income for the group.

在消費卡和支付業務中，我們的美國卡餘額增長得益於支出的複蘇以及我們與 GAP 合作的第一季度，該合作開始顯現成果。總的來說，平衡增長和我們對高利率敏感度的管理為集團的淨利息收入顯著增長做出了貢獻。

And finally, whilst we are a U.K.-domiciled bank we have a truly global footprint, providing attractive exposure to the U.S. economy with over 40% of our group income generated in U.S. dollars.

最後，雖然我們是一家在英國註冊的銀行，但我們擁有真正的全球足跡，為美國經濟提供了具有吸引力的敞口，我們 40% 以上的集團收入以美元產生。

While our income story paints a compelling picture, we remain, however, cautious about the macroeconomic outlook globally, and have been approaching it accordingly over the last year. In fact, we have been prudent in our balance sheet management for many years in particular since the days following the EU referendum in the U.K. We have reviewed our corporate loan portfolios, particularly in more vulnerable sectors, reducing exposure and managing our risk by acquiring significant credit protection.

雖然我們的收入故事描繪了一幅令人信服的畫面，但我們仍然對全球宏觀經濟前景持謹慎態度，並且在過去一年中一直在相應地接近它。事實上，我們多年來一直謹慎管理資產負債表，特別是自英國脫歐公投後的幾天以來。我們審查了我們的公司貸款組合，特別是在更脆弱的行業，通過收購重大資產來降低風險敞口並管理我們的風險。信用保護。

As with many of our peers, we have taken markdowns in some elements of our syndicated loan book, but here, too, we have been managing our risk prudently and increasing our batches.

與我們的許多同行一樣，我們對銀團貸款賬簿的某些元素進行了降價，但在這裡，我們也一直在謹慎管理風險並增加批次。

In our U.K. credit card portfolio, our balances remain some 40% below pre-pandemic levels. And while our U.S. credit card portfolio has grown, credit quality remains very strong, and customers continue to repay balances at near-record levels. That said, although we feel we are carefully positioned, we remain alert to signs of stress.

在我們的英國信用卡組合中，我們的餘額仍比大流行前水平低約 40%。儘管我們的美國信用卡組合有所增長，但信用質量仍然非常強勁，客戶繼續以接近創紀錄的水平償還餘額。也就是說，雖然我們覺得自己的位置很謹慎，但我們仍然對壓力跡象保持警惕。

Our U.K. debit and credit card spending data give us early insights into how customers are adjusting to prevailing trends. So far, we have not seen emerging signs of stress, although our September data showed a slight fall in consumer confidence. People are being prudent with a reduction in nonessential spending, such as clothing, as they adjust their household expenditure for large increases in utility bills. We are drawing on this insight as well as our data and listening to our customers to understand how best we can support them. We have put in place a range of options to support individuals and businesses who banked us. This ranges from providing basic information such as mortgage renewal base or how to build a household budget through to helping these customers with more complex needs. Today, we have over 8,000 colleagues available to engage with our customers in the U.K. and to discuss their finances. We know the demand for this customer support is growing, and we aim to hire nearly 1,000 more people in the coming weeks to boost that capacity.

我們的英國借記卡和信用卡消費數據讓我們能夠及早了解客戶如何適應流行趨勢。到目前為止，儘管我們 9 月份的數據顯示消費者信心略有下降，但我們尚未看到壓力的新跡象。人們在調整家庭支出以應對水電費大幅增加時，對減少非必要支出（例如服裝）持謹慎態度。我們正在利用這種洞察力以及我們的數據，並傾聽我們的客戶的意見，以了解我們可以如何最好地支持他們。我們已經制定了一系列選項來支持為我們提供銀行服務的個人和企業。這包括提供基本信息，例如抵押貸款續訂基礎或如何建立家庭預算，以及幫助這些客戶滿足更複雜的需求。今天，我們有 8,000 多名同事可以與我們在英國的客戶互動並討論他們的財務狀況。我們知道對這種客戶支持的需求正在增長，我們的目標是在未來幾週內再僱用近 1,000 人來提高這種能力。

Let me now address the regrettable matter of the over issuance of securities under our U.S. share registration statements. We have resolved the matter with the SEC, and the total financial impact was broadly in line with what we disclosed at the second quarter. I said it before and I say it again, this issue was entirely avoidable, and we are taking action to prevent this kind of failure from recurring. The external council read review is now complete, and has reinforced the findings of our own extensive internal reviews. We are already using these findings to improve specific controls across the bank and to reinforce more broadly a strong controllers culture.

現在讓我談談根據我們的美國股票登記聲明過度發行證券的令人遺憾的問題。我們已經與美國證券交易委員會解決了此事，總體財務影響與我們在第二季度披露的內容大體一致。我之前說過，我再說一遍，這個問題是完全可以避免的，我們正在採取措施防止這種故障再次發生。外部理事會閱讀審查現已完成，並加強了我們自己廣泛的內部審查的結果。我們已經在利用這些發現來改善整個銀行的具體控制，並在更廣泛的範圍內加強強大的控制者文化。

I continue to be clear with all my colleagues that we have no higher priority and ensuring that our operations and our risk and control processes are robust and effective at all times.

我繼續與所有同事明確表示，我們沒有更高的優先級，並確保我們的運營以及我們的風險和控制流程始終穩健有效。

Before I conclude, I want to give you a brief update on one of our strategic priorities which is capturing opportunities from the transition to a low carbon economy. Governments continue to play a critical role in this transition and considering the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. and other business factors. In our year-end climate update, we expect to bring forward the phase out date for financing thermal coal power in the U.S. from 2035 to 2030 in line with our approach in the U.K. and in the EU. And demonstrating Barclays' leadership in the energy transition, we are very honored and pleased to act as the sole M&A adviser to Con Edison based in New York on the announced $6.8 billion sale of their clean energy business to RWE based in Germany earlier this month. This was the largest ever sale of renewable assets globally.

在結束之前，我想簡要介紹一下我們的戰略重點之一，即抓住向低碳經濟過渡的機會。政府繼續在這一過渡中發揮關鍵作用，並考慮到美國的《通貨膨脹減少法》和其他商業因素。在我們的年終氣候更新中，我們預計將根據我們在英國和歐盟的做法，將美國動力煤發電融資的淘汰日期從 2035 年提前到 2030 年。為了展示巴克萊在能源轉型方面的領導地位，我們非常榮幸和高興地擔任紐約聯合愛迪生公司本月早些時候宣布以 68 億美元將其清潔能源業務出售給德國 RWE 的唯一併購顧問。這是全球有史以來最大的可再生資產出售。

So in conclusion, Barclays has had a strong third quarter financial performance, building on our performance in the first half of the year. This gives us a solid platform as we continue to target statutory return on tangible equity above 10% for 2022. Our capital position is robust with a CET1 ratio of 13.8%, which is comfortably in our target range of 13% to 14%. Our announced total capital return for the last 12 months, comprising both dividends and buyback is a yield of about 10.5% on the stock at current share price levels.

因此，總而言之，巴克萊銀行在上半年的業績基礎上取得了強勁的第三季度財務業績。這為我們提供了一個堅實的平台，因為我們繼續將 2022 年的有形股本法定回報率目標定在 10% 以上。我們的資本狀況穩健，CET1 比率為 13.8%，處於我們 13% 至 14% 的目標範圍內。我們宣布的過去 12 個月的總資本回報，包括股息和回購，按當前股價水平計算，股票收益率約為 10.5%。

As I have said consistently, returning excess capital to shareholders remains one of our priorities. And while I'm pleased with the results, I'm very conscious that we live an unusually uncertain times. This drives our conservative approach to managing our balance sheet and provision levels and our careful stance towards the expected deterioration in the global economy.

正如我一直所說的，將多餘的資本返還給股東仍然是我們的首要任務之一。雖然我對結果感到滿意，但我非常清楚我們生活在一個異常不確定的時代。這推動了我們管理資產負債表和撥備水平的保守方法，以及我們對全球經濟預期惡化的謹慎態度。

With that, thank you very much, and let me turn it over to Anna.

有了這個，非常感謝你，讓我把它交給安娜。

Thank you, Venkat, and good morning, everyone. Q3 was another quarter of delivery across our businesses, contributing to a year-to-date statutory RoTE of 10.9% despite elevated litigation and conduct costs. We delivered a RoTE of 12.5% for the quarter. PBT was up 6% year-on-year and EPS was 9.4p. The CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 13.8%, and we remain highly liquid and well funded with a liquidity coverage ratio of 151% and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 72%.

謝謝你，文卡特，大家早上好。第三季度是我們業務交付的又一個季度，儘管訴訟和行為成本增加，但今年迄今的法定 RoTE 為 10.9%。我們本季度實現了 12.5% 的 RoTE。 PBT 同比增長 6%，每股收益為 9.4 便士。 CET1 比率在本季度末為 13.8%，我們仍然保持高流動性和充足的資金，流動性覆蓋率為 151%，貸存比為 72%。

As Venkat mentioned, we reached resolution with the SEC on over issuance. As expected, the net profit effect of the over issuance in the quarter was immaterial. However, there were offsetting effects on income and costs, and there's a slide giving the details in the appendix. I'm going to exclude those effects in my commentary on the cost and income trends.

正如文卡特所說，我們與美國證券交易委員會就超額發行達成了決議。正如預期的那樣，本季度超發對淨利潤的影響並不顯著。但是，對收入和成本有抵消作用，附錄中有一張幻燈片提供了詳細信息。我將在我對成本和收入趨勢的評論中排除這些影響。

As in recent quarters, this robust performance is being driven by broad-based income momentum. Income was up 17% or total costs were up by 18%. However, operating costs which exclude LSC, were up by 14%, reflecting our focus on positive jaws. Both income and cost numbers are, of course, affected by the stronger U.S. dollar.

與最近幾個季度一樣，這種強勁的表現是由廣泛的收入勢頭推動的。收入增長 17% 或總成本增長 18%。然而，不包括 LSC 的運營成本上升了 14%，這反映了我們對積極下巴的關注。當然，收入和成本數字都受到美元走強的影響。

Impairment was GBP 381 million, up from GBP 120 million last year, and I'll say more about provisioning and our coverage level shortly. But I'm going to start with income momentum.

減值為 3.81 億英鎊，高於去年的 1.2 億英鎊，我將在稍後詳細說明撥備和我們的覆蓋水平。但我將從收入勢頭開始。

All 3 operating businesses delivered income growth. In the Investment Bank, whilst the market environment for primary assurance remains challenging, that same environment is driving high levels of client activity across both financing and trading in the markets businesses. So in the CIB, income grew 5% against a strong comparator with markets up 22% in U.S. dollars, more than offsetting the reduction in banking. The standout in market is again FICC up 63% in U.S. dollars. Clearly, the volatility across global markets provides a tailwind for this business as we help clients manage their risk. However, FICC comprises both intermediation and the more stable financing revenues.

3 項經營業務均實現收入增長。在投資銀行，雖然主要保證的市場環境仍然充滿挑戰，但同樣的環境正在推動市場業務的融資和交易方面的高水平客戶活動。因此，在 CIB 中，收入增長了 5%，而以美元計算的市場增長了 22%，遠遠抵消了銀行業的減少。市場上的佼佼者再次以美元計算 FICC 上漲 63%。顯然，隨著我們幫助客戶管理風險，全球市場的波動為這項業務提供了順風。然而，FICC 既包括中介收入，也包括更穩定的融資收入。

Fixed income financing balances are up over 30% year-on-year, and margins have widened as rates have risen globally. The trends give us confidence in a more sustainable base effect income as volatility subsides.

固定收益融資餘額同比增長超過 30%，隨著全球利率上升，利潤率也有所擴大。隨著波動性減弱，這些趨勢使我們對更可持續的基數效應收入充滿信心。

Equities revenues were down 21% in dollars. Whilst derivatives were weaker, the year-on-year growth in our equity financing income provides a good base for sustainability. Overall, our Q3 share of wallet and markets has increased by over 100 basis points year-on-year compared to peers who have reported so far.

以美元計，股票收入下降了 21%。雖然衍生品表現較弱，但我們股權融資收入的同比增長為可持續發展提供了良好的基礎。總體而言，與迄今為止報告的同行相比，我們在第三季度的錢包和市場份額同比增長了 100 多個基點。

Investment banking fees were down 54% in U.S. dollars, broadly in line with the reduction in the industry fee pool. However, the deal pipeline is strong.

以美元計，投資銀行費用下降了 54%，與行業費用池的減少基本一致。然而，交易渠道很強大。

The corporate and consumer businesses are well positioned for the rising rate environment forever boosted by transactional growth and indeed nominal economic activity. Although corporate income overall was down 17%, the strong growth in transactional banking significantly offset the corporate lending income expense.

企業和消費者業務在交易增長和名義經濟活動的推動下永遠處於上升的利率環境中處於有利地位。儘管企業收入整體下降了 17%，但交易銀行業務的強勁增長大大抵消了企業貸款收入支出。

Income in CC&P increased 54%, reflecting strong growth across all 3 constituent businesses and including the effect of the stronger U.S. dollar. In International Card, income was up 68%. In contrast to the U.K., we grew average balances strongly in the U.S. by around 30% or $6 billion year-on-year, both organically and with the $3.3 billion GAAP book.

CC&P 的收入增長了 54%，反映了所有 3 個成分業務的強勁增長，包括美元走強的影響。在國際卡方面，收入增長了 68%。與英國相比，我們在美國的平均餘額強勁增長了約 30% 或 60 億美元，無論是有機的還是 33 億美元的 GAAP 賬面。

In payments, income grew 15%, and the Private Bank achieved 44% income growth with the continued build in client assets and liabilities up 14% to GBP 138 billion.

在支付方面，收入增長了 15%，私人銀行實現了 44% 的收入增長，客戶資產和負債持續增長 14%，達到 1,380 億英鎊。

Barclays U.K. grew income by 17%, notably in Personal Banking where earnings on deposits in the rising rate environment more than offset very competitive mortgage margins.

英國巴克萊銀行的收入增長了 17%，尤其是在個人銀行業務方面，在利率上升的環境下，存款收益足以抵消極具競爭力的抵押貸款利潤率。

Before I talk about interest rates, it's worth noting that our franchise is a global one with a little over 40% of income in U.S. dollars. Clearly, this has an FX translation impact but more importantly, demonstrates our exposure to the U.S. economy and capital markets.

在我談論利率之前，值得注意的是，我們的特許經營權是一個全球性的特許經營權，美元收入的 40% 略多一點。顯然，這會產生外匯轉換影響，但更重要的是，這表明我們對美國經濟和資本市場的敞口。

Moving on to the effect of interest rates, we have maintained a consistent hedge strategy for a number of years, the aim of which is to smooth the impact of the interest rate changes on net interest income. Each month, we currently roll 4 to 5 billion of the hedge, mainly into 3- to 5-year rates. The consequence of this is that Barclays has sensitivity, not just a base rate, but also to the yield curve.

繼續討論利率的影響，多年來我們一直保持一致的對沖策略，其目的是緩和利率變化對淨利息收入的影響。目前，我們每個月都會進行 4 到 50 億次對沖，主要是 3 到 5 年期利率。這樣做的結果是，巴克萊不僅對基準利率敏感，而且對收益率曲線也很敏感。

The left-hand chart on the slide illustrates then for 25 basis point parallel shift in the curve. In year 1, the majority of the sensitivity comes from product decisions around the pass-through of increased base rates to customers. But thereafter, with a cumulative effect of the hedge rolling on to higher rates, the hedge impact becomes more significant and reaches around 2/3 of the [GBP 500 million] increase by year 3. But of course, this is just illustrative, and is not a prediction of what will happen with multiple rate rises.

幻燈片左側的圖表說明了曲線中 25 個基點的平行移動。在第 1 年，大部分敏感度來自圍繞將提高的基本費率傳遞給客戶的產品決策。但此後，隨著套期保值的累積效應持續到更高的利率，套期保值影響變得更加顯著，到第 3 年達到 [5 億英鎊] 增幅的 2/3 左右。當然，這只是說明性的，並且不是對多次加息會發生什麼的預測。

On the right-hand chart, we have shown the actual impact in recent quarters. Given the recent move in the yield curve, we were locking in an average 5-year swap rate of 3.05%, for example, in Q3 following the average yield on the hedge up to 93 basis points.

在右側圖表中，我們展示了最近幾個季度的實際影響。鑑於收益率曲線最近的變動，我們鎖定了 3.05% 的平均 5 年期掉期利率，例如，在第三季度，對沖的平均收益率高達 93 個基點。

We have around GBP 50 billion maturing in 2023. Although we don't know exactly where swap rates will go, the likely uplift on the current hedge yield is clear, even if the rate cycle is shorter or shallower than current expectations. And of course, that is locked in with each passing month.

我們有大約 500 億英鎊將在 2023 年到期。雖然我們不知道掉期利率將走向何方，但當前對沖收益率的可能上升是顯而易見的，即使利率週期比當前預期更短或更淺。當然，這是每個月都鎖定的。

Looking now at costs, the Q3 figure was GBP 3.6 billion, but this is net of a reduction in over issuance costs of GBP 0.5 billion. Excluding that, costs would have been GBP 4.1 billion, up from last year's equivalent of GBP 3.5 billion. This increase was partly attributable to the other litigation and conduct charges of GBP 164 million.

現在來看成本，第三季度的數字為 36 億英鎊，但這是扣除 5 億英鎊的超額發行成本後的淨值。如果不計此，成本將達到 41 億英鎊，高於去年的 35 億英鎊。這一增長部分歸因於 1.64 億英鎊的其他訴訟和行為指控。

Operating costs, which exclude L&C, increased 14% against income growth of 17%. This increase of 0.5 billion included FX movements and inflation plus investment spend focused on our 3 strategic priorities. Around 30% of our costs are in U.S. dollars, so the 14% change in the U.S. dollar rate year-on-year has a significant translation effect. The currency effects have been more pronounced quarter-on-quarter with a 6% strengthening in the U.S. dollar.

不包括 L&C 的運營成本增長了 14%，而收入增長了 17%。增加的 5 億包括外匯變動和通貨膨脹以及投資支出，重點放在我們的 3 個戰略優先事項上。我們大約 30% 的成本是以美元計算的，因此美元匯率同比 14% 的變化具有顯著的換算效應。貨幣效應比上一季度更為明顯，美元升值 6%。

Assuming an average dollar rate of [112] for Q4, we expect total operating expenses for 2022 to be in line with our previous guidance at around GBP 16.7 billion with a tailwind from both net L&C credit of GBP 0.3 billion in Q3 being broadly offset by the stronger dollar and other cost inflation.

假設第 4 季度的平均美元匯率為 [112]，我們預計 2022 年的總運營費用將與我們之前的指引一致，約為 167 億英鎊，第三季度淨 L&C 信貸 3 億英鎊的順風被廣泛抵消美元走強和其他成本通脹。

I'm not going to give absolute cost guidance for 2023 at this stage, but we will continue to manage the trade-off between cost efficiencies and investments. Of course, a strong dollar will affect the sterling cost figure, but with over 40% of our income in U.S. dollars, this is positive for the cost income ratio. We manage our statutory costs, which include litigation and conduct charges and are very focused on generating positive jaws on a statutory basis.

在這個階段，我不會給出 2023 年的絕對成本指導，但我們將繼續管理成本效率和投資之間的權衡。當然，強勢美元會影響英鎊成本數字，但我們收入的 40% 以上是美元，這對成本收入比率是有利的。我們管理我們的法定成本，包括訴訟和行為費用，並且非常注重在法定基礎上產生積極的影響。

Moving on to impairment, the current macroeconomic outlook informs our approach to provisioning. But before I look at how this affects impairment, I want to summarize briefly the evolution of key portfolios in recent years. The U.K. mortgage book has grown by 13% since December 2019, but the average loan to value has declined, and only 2.3% of the book has an LTV over 85%.

繼續減值，當前的宏觀經濟前景為我們的撥備方法提供了依據。但在我研究這如何影響減值之前，我想簡要總結一下近年來主要投資組合的演變。自 2019 年 12 月以來，英國的抵押貸款賬簿增長了 13%，但平均貸款價值有所下降，只有 2.3% 的賬簿的 LTV 超過 85%。

Our U.K. Cards book has reduced by around 40% over that period. We continue to see high levels of repayment across the credit spectrum and arrears rates remained stable at low levels.

在此期間，我們的英國卡片簿減少了約 40%。我們繼續看到信貸範圍內的高還款率和拖欠率保持在低水平。

By choice, we have a different dynamic in U.S. Cards. Whilst repayment rates have also been high, we are growing balances, including through the launch of the GAP partnership. However, the quality of the book as measured by average FICO scores has improved and arrears rates are still below the pre-pandemic level.

通過選擇，我們在美國卡中擁有不同的動態。雖然還款率也很高，但我們正在增加餘額，包括通過啟動 GAP 合作夥伴關係。但是，以 FICO 平均分數衡量的圖書質量有所提高，拖欠率仍低於大流行前的水平。

Wholesale balances have increased recently, but the majority of the growth has been in debt securities, collateralized lending to financial institutions and the lower risk areas of corporate lending. In addition, we have increased our first loss credit protection over the corporate loan book, thereby reducing our exposure to loan losses. 35% of this book is now covered by some form of protection, up from 26% pre-pandemic.

批發餘額最近有所增加，但增長主要集中在債務證券、向金融機構提供的抵押貸款以及企業貸款的低風險領域。此外，我們增加了對公司貸款賬簿的首次損失信用保護，從而降低了我們的貸款損失風險。本書 35% 的內容現在受到某種形式的保護，高於大流行前的 26%。

Across our portfolio, we feel confident that we are well positioned. As you can see on the next slide, our title impairment allowance was GBP 6.4 billion, an increase in the quarter from GBP 6 billion. And this includes GBP 0.7 billion of post-model adjustments or PMA for economic uncertainty.

在我們的投資組合中，我們對自己處於有利地位充滿信心。正如您在下一張幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們的產權減值準備為 64 億英鎊，比本季度的 60 億英鎊有所增加。這包括 7 億英鎊的模型後調整或針對經濟不確定性的 PMA。

The forecast macroeconomic variables on net we have used at Q3 for models impairments are shown in the appendix. These show some deterioration compared to Q2. For example, modeling baseline U.K. unemployment of 4.4% in 2023, up from 4.1% and U.S. unemployment of 4%, up from 3.5%. Applying these maths to the Q3 balance sheet had an effect of around GBP 300 million, but we created the PMA for economic uncertainty to capture this type of deterioration. So in the quarter, we have released around GBP 300 million of the PMA balance. Therefore, the model's allowance plus the economic uncertainty PMA is roughly flat quarter-on-quarter at GBP 5.2 billion and covers the further modeled increase we would see if we were to use our Downside 1 scenario.

我們在第三季度用於模型減值的淨預測宏觀經濟變量如附錄所示。與第二季度相比，這些情況有所惡化。例如，模擬 2023 年英國的基線失業率為 4.4%，高於 4.1%，美國的失業率為 4%，高於 3.5%。將這些數學應用於第三季度的資產負債表產生了大約 3 億英鎊的影響，但我們為經濟不確定性創建了 PMA 以捕捉這種類型的惡化。所以在本季度，我們釋放了大約 3 億英鎊的 PMA 餘額。因此，該模型的津貼加上經濟不確定性 PMA 與上一季度大致持平，為 52 億英鎊，涵蓋瞭如果我們使用下行 1 情景將看到的進一步模擬增長。

We still don't see significant signs of deterioration in credit metrics. Although coverage ratios overall are slightly down on pre-pandemic, we have increased coverage for Stage 1 and Stage 2 credit cards, as you can see in the appendix slides. The chart on the right shows the overall loan loss rate over recent years. Ignoring the volatility during the pandemic, you can see that it has been around 50 to 60 basis points. Although this is sensitive to the portfolio mix, we think it's a reasonable range to be considering for us through the cycle loan loss rate.

我們仍然沒有看到信貸指標惡化的明顯跡象。儘管總體覆蓋率在大流行前略有下降，但我們增加了第一階段和第二階段信用卡的覆蓋率，如您在附錄幻燈片中所見。右圖顯示了近年來的整體貸款損失率。忽略大流行期間的波動性，您可以看到它一直在 50 到 60 個基點左右。儘管這對投資組合很敏感，但我們認為這是一個合理的範圍，可以通過週期貸款損失率來考慮。

In Q3, this was 36 bps and the charge was GBP 381 million, and we expect this to rise modestly over the coming quarters as we grow. This is obviously subject to further potential deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook beyond that, which could be offset by the uncertainty PMA balance of GBP 0.7 billion.

在第三季度，這是 36 個基點，費用為 3.81 億英鎊，我們預計隨著我們的增長，這將在未來幾個季度適度上升。這顯然會受到宏觀經濟前景進一步惡化的影響，這可能會被 7 億英鎊的不確定性 PMA 餘額所抵消。

A quick summary now on our results of our business. In CIB, income grew 5% against a strong comparator. I focused on the key drivers earlier, but I wanted to go into a bit more detail here on the corporate income. Transaction banking was up 57%, reflecting strong NII growth, and we would expect further growth in Q4. The corporate lending income expense reflected both fair value losses on leveraged finance lending of GBP 190 million net of mark-to-market gains on related hedges and also higher costs of hedging and credit protection. The underlying corporate lending income remains stable.

現在快速總結一下我們的業務成果。在 CIB，收入增長了 5%，對比強勁。我之前專注於關鍵驅動因素，但我想在這裡更詳細地介紹企業收入。交易銀行業務增長 57%，反映出強勁的 NII 增長，我們預計第四季度將進一步增長。公司貸款收入支出反映了槓桿融資貸款的公允價值損失 1.9 億英鎊（扣除相關對沖的按市值計價收益）以及更高的對沖和信用保護成本。基礎企業貸款收入保持穩定。

Operating costs, which exclude L&C, increased by 17%, reflecting the 14% appreciation in the U.S. dollar, and investment in talent, systems and technology to support income growth initiatives plus the impact of inflation.

不包括 L&C 的運營成本增加了 17%，這反映了美元升值 14%，以及對人才、系統和技術的投資以支持收入增長計劃以及通貨膨脹的影響。

The cost income ratio was 62%, excluding the effect of over issuance. Overall, the CIB generated a statutory RoTE for the quarter of 11.9%.

剔除超發影響後，成本收益率為62%。總體而言，CIB 在本季度產生了 11.9% 的法定 RoTE。

We are pleased with the sustainability of the business through the pandemic and current geopolitical disruptions. The franchise is developing well and over half of the income is dollar-based, reflecting the strength of our position in the largest global capital market.

通過大流行和當前的地緣政治中斷，我們對業務的可持續性感到滿意。特許經營發展良好，超過一半的收入以美元為基礎，反映了我們在全球最大資本市場中的地位。

Moving on to CC&P. Income increased 54%, reflecting growth across international cards, payments and the private bank, as I mentioned earlier. Total costs were GBP 835 million, which included GBP 102 million of litigation and conduct, mainly in respect of our review on legacy loan portfolios. Excluding this, the increase in operating costs was 30%, principally investment in the growth of partner brands in U.S. Cards and the dollar strength, but still delivering positive jaws.

繼續 CC&P。正如我之前提到的，收入增長了 54%，反映了國際卡、支付和私人銀行的增長。總成本為 8.35 億英鎊，其中包括 1.02 億英鎊的訴訟和行為，主要用於我們對遺留貸款組合的審查。不包括這一點，運營成本增加了 30%，主要投資於美國卡合作夥伴品牌的增長和美元強勢，但仍帶來積極的影響。

The impairment charge was GBP 249 million compared to GBP 110 million last year. This reflected growth in U.S. Card balances back to pre-pandemic levels with some normalization of economic activity. As balances grow, we do expect some stage migration but risk metrics remain below pre-pandemic levels. The RoTE was 9.5% despite the L&C charge.

減值費用為 2.49 億英鎊，而去年為 1.1 億英鎊。這反映了美國信用卡餘額的增長恢復到大流行前的水平，經濟活動有所正常化。隨著餘額的增長，我們確實預計會有一些階段性的遷移，但風險指標仍低於大流行前的水平。儘管有 L&C 費用，但 RoTE 為 9.5%。

Turning now to BUK. Income grew 17%. Our costs were up 2%, delivering strong positive jaws and reducing the cost income ratio by 8 percentage points to 56%. The NIM for the quarter was 301 basis points, up 30 basis points from Q2 as we saw benefits from rate rises, and we've shown a bridge on this slide analyzing that. We're continuing to guide for the full year to a range of 280 to 290 basis points and expect to be in the upper part of that range.

現在轉向 BUK。收入增長了 17%。我們的成本增長了 2%，帶來了強勁的增長，並將成本收入比率降低了 8 個百分點至 56%。本季度的 NIM 為 301 個基點，比第二季度上升 30 個基點，因為我們看到了加息帶來的好處，我們在這張幻燈片上展示了一個分析這一點的橋樑。我們將繼續將全年引導至 280 至 290 個基點的範圍，並預計將處於該範圍的上限。

The cost phase that we flagged previously provides significant offset to cost inflation, and we're keeping a tight control over credit risk. There's a slide in the appendix on the head office result.

我們之前標記的成本階段可以顯著抵消成本膨脹，我們正在嚴格控制信用風險。總公司結果的附錄中有一張幻燈片。

Turning now to capital, the CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 13.8%, an increase from 13.6% at the half year and comfortably within our target range. Our capital generation from profits was strong, contributing 43 basis points. We completed the half year buyback, returning capital to shareholders and further reducing the share count to 15.9 billion, but down 1 billion in the last 12 months. Combined with the dividend paid and accrued, this was a return to shareholders of 22 basis points.

現在轉向資本，CET1 比率在本季度結束時為 13.8%，高於半年的 13.6%，並且在我們的目標範圍內。我們從利潤中產生的資本強勁，貢獻了 43 個基點。我們完成了半年的回購，向股東返還了資本，並將股份數量進一步減少到 159 億股，但在過去 12 個月內減少了 10 億股。加上已支付和應計的股息，這是對股東的 22 個基點的回報。

Over time, increases in interest rates are a tailwind to profitability, but the effect on reserves from market movements caused a headwind of 12 basis points in the quarter, principally through the fair value effect on bond holdings.

隨著時間的推移，利率上升對盈利能力是有利的，但市場變動對準備金的影響在本季度造成了 12 個基點的逆風，主要是通過對債券持有量的公允價值影響。

The completion of the rescission offer and termination of related hedges released RWA, increasing the ratio by 17 basis points. FX had little net effect given our policy of hedging the ratio with an increase in RWA, but also a positive effect on the currency translation reserve in the numerator. Our MDA Hurdle was 10.9%, so we have comfortable headroom. We remain confident in the organic capital generation and our target range remains 13% to 14%.

解除要約的完成和相關對沖的終止釋放了風險加權資產，使該比率增加了 17 個基點。鑑於我們通過增加風險加權資產來對沖該比率的政策，外匯幾乎沒有淨影響，但對分子中的貨幣換算儲備也有積極影響。我們的 MDA 跨欄為 10.9%，所以我們有舒適的淨空。我們對有機資本的產生仍然充滿信心，我們的目標範圍仍然是 13% 到 14%。

A quick comment on the moves in equity. TNAV decreased 11p in the quarter to 286p per share, reflecting the effect of increased interest rates, partially offset by earnings and the benefit of stronger dollar on reserves. Finally, on leverage, our spot leverage ratio was 5%, and the average leverage ratio was 4.8%.

對股票走勢的快速評論。本季度 TNAV 下降 11 便士至每股 286 便士，反映了利率上升的影響，部分被收益和美元走強對儲備的好處所抵消。最後，在槓桿上，我們的現貨槓桿率為5%，平均槓桿率為4.8%。

So to summarize on targets and outlook. We reported statutory earnings of 9.4p per share for Q3 and generated a 12.5% RoTE against our target of over 10%. We continue to target a cost income ratio of below 60% and our capital ratio remains strong at 13.8%. We have confidence in the continued revenue momentum across all of our businesses. We continue to focus on the cost trajectory given the inflationary pressures and have maintained our cost guidance for the year of GBP 16.7 billion.

所以總結一下目標和展望。我們報告第三季度的法定每股收益為 9.4 便士，並產生了 12.5% 的 RoTE，而我們的目標是超過 10%。我們繼續以低於 60% 的成本收入比率為目標，我們的資本比率保持在 13.8% 的強勁水平。我們對所有業務的持續收入勢頭充滿信心。鑑於通脹壓力，我們繼續關注成本軌跡，並維持 167 億英鎊的年度成本指導。

We are well provisioned in readiness for potential deterioration in the macroeconomic environment, but expect a modest increase in quarterly impairment charges over coming quarters as we grow.

我們已為宏觀經濟環境的潛在惡化做好準備，但預計隨著我們的增長，未來幾個季度的季度減值費用將適度增加。

Overall, the business performance is robust, and we remain focused on delivering our target of double-digit RoTE this year and on a sustainable basis going forward. We are confident of being able to invest for future growth and delivering attractive capital returns to shareholders.

總體而言，業務表現強勁，我們將繼續專注於實現今年兩位數的 RoTE 目標，並在可持續的基礎上向前發展。我們有信心能夠為未來的增長進行投資，並為股東帶來有吸引力的資本回報。

Thank you, and we will now take your questions. (Operator Instructions).

謝謝您，我們現在將回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Alvaro Serrano。

One question on costs and other on asset quality, please. On costs, I heard you, Anna, saying that you're not going to talk about 2023, and I don't expect you to give a hard number. But if I take your guidance for this year, it looks like operating expenses are annualizing north of GBP 16 billion, considering there's inflation, likely inflation, and consensus is closer to GBP 15 billion, so there's a significant delta. Is there any sort of cost actions or anything I should bear in mind in that number beyond, obviously, the exchange rate? Any actions you're able to take, or do you feel there's even more flexibility on variable comp than in other times of -- in other times of the cycle?

請提一個關於成本的問題和另一個關於資產質量的問題。關於成本，安娜，我聽到你說你不會談論 2023 年，我不希望你給出一個確切的數字。但如果我接受你對今年的指導，考慮到通貨膨脹，可能的通貨膨脹，並且共識接近 150 億英鎊，因此運營費用似乎每年超過 160 億英鎊，因此存在顯著的增量。除了匯率之外，還有什麼成本措施或我應該記住的任何事情嗎？您可以採取的任何行動，或者您是否覺得可變補償比其他時間更具靈活性 - 在周期的其他時間？

And the second question is around asset quality. You said that you expect a trend towards through-the-cycle loss rate. Obviously, there's been some changes in the mix increasing sort of retail cards in the U.S. and shrinking the U.K. I don't know if you can update us on what that number looks like now. And related to that, in your Downside 1 scenario, I think you've got accumulated almost 20% correction in house price. What impact would that have on RWAs?

第二個問題是關於資產質量的。您說您預計整個週期損失率的趨勢。顯然，美國的零售卡種類增加而英國的零售卡種類減少了。我不知道您是否可以向我們更新這個數字現在的樣子。與此相關的是，在您的下行 1 情景中，我認為您的房價已經累積了近 20% 的修正。這會對風險加權資產產生什麼影響？

So let me take costs first. So we guided this year to GBP 16.7 billion. That has an assumption embedded within it, that the fourth quarter dollar rate will be [112]. As we look forward into next year, here's kind of how I'm thinking about it. We would expect that given we've seen elevated levels of L&C this year for that to be considerably lower, however, the FX impact that we've seen intensifying through the year, you might expect annualize into next year. So if rates stayed at 112 that would be about GBP 500 million of cost increase into next year. But what we have to remember is that, that has a greater impact on the income line. So the equivalent to that GBP 500 million in income terms would be [1 billion]. So as you're updating your cost expectations, I would encourage you to think about the FX impact in income as well.

所以讓我先考慮成本。因此，我們將今年引導至 167 億英鎊。其中包含一個假設，即第四季度的美元匯率將為 [112]。當我們展望明年時，這就是我的想法。我們預計，鑑於今年我們已經看到 L&C 水平上升，但這一水平會大大降低，但是，我們看到全年的外匯影響正在加劇，您可能會預計到明年年化。因此，如果利率保持在 112 美元，明年的成本將增加約 5 億英鎊。但我們必須記住的是，這對收入線的影響更大。因此，相當於 5 億英鎊的收入將是 [10 億]。因此，當您更新您的成本預期時，我鼓勵您也考慮外匯對收入的影響。

As it relates to other factors, clearly, there is inflation, but you've also got the investment that we focused on our 3 strategic priorities. You can see that's not deployed equally throughout the bank. In terms of actions, we could clearly modify that investment plan, but to the extent that we feel that it's driving revenue growth, obviously, we'll be thoughtful about doing that.

由於它與其他因素相關，顯然存在通貨膨脹，但您也獲得了我們專注於 3 個戰略重點的投資。您可以看到它在整個銀行中的部署並不相同。在行動方面，我們可以清楚地修改該投資計劃，但在我們認為它正在推動收入增長的程度上，顯然，我們會考慮這樣做。

In terms of managing inflation, we do have efficiency programs in place. You can see that particularly in the U.K. where you've got strong income growth dropping to the bottom line with minimal cost growth. So I would say, consider the impact of efficiency programs there. I mean, obviously, also, if we see a drop in CIB revenue, we've got another lever in comp. But overall, I'd just leave you with a message that we're very focused on the RoTE target and very, very focused on delivering positive jaws.

在管理通貨膨脹方面，我們確實制定了效率計劃。你可以看到這一點，尤其是在英國，你的收入增長強勁，以最低的成本增長降至底線。所以我想說，考慮那裡的效率計劃的影響。我的意思是，很明顯，如果我們看到 CIB 收入下降，我們還有另一個槓桿。但總的來說，我只想給你一個信息，我們非常專注於 RoTE 目標，非常非常專注於提供積極的下巴。

In terms of asset quality, it's difficult to give you an adjusted version of that historic number. You're right. We're actively growing balances in U.S. Cards. We're seeing them fall away in U.K. cards. But at the same time, you can see that the level of risk that we're holding in the balance sheet versus pre-pandemic is lower. And well, to some extent, we're going to have to see how that pans out. So it's lower because LTVs are lower, and actually, if you look at the staging, you can see that the proportion of Stage 1 and 2 balances is also considerably higher than it was pre-pandemic.

就資產質量而言，很難為您提供該歷史數字的調整版本。你是對的。我們正在積極增加美國卡的餘額。我們看到它們在英國牌中逐漸消失。但與此同時，您可以看到，與大流行前相比，我們在資產負債表中持有的風險水平較低。好吧，在某種程度上，我們將不得不看看結果如何。所以它較低是因為 LTV 較低，實際上，如果您查看分期，您可以看到第 1 階段和第 2 階段餘額的比例也大大高於大流行前。

And to your final point, we haven't seen [proceeds] in our RWAs yet. You're right. If there was a substantial decrease in HPI, we would expect that to impact the loss given default in our capital models, and would lead to some RWA pressure. And they equally remember that within there, there's the probability of default piece as well. And therefore, you should consider the strength of customer balance sheet as we sit here today. So we'll update on that as we see it happen. But to date, no signs.

最後一點，我們還沒有在我們的風險加權資產中看到[收益]。你是對的。如果 HPI 大幅下降，我們預計這會影響我們的資本模型中的違約損失，並會導致一些 RWA 壓力。他們同樣記得，在那裡，也有違約的可能性。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，您應該考慮客戶資產負債表的實力。因此，當我們看到它發生時，我們將對此進行更新。但迄今為止，沒有任何跡象。

Our next question is from Joseph Dickerson from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Joseph Dickerson。

You already answered my question on the FX sensitivity there, on revenue versus costs. But I guess just on capital return, Venkat, I think you've spoken earlier this year about the conversion of earnings and the buybacks, and you did GBP 500 million at Q2. I guess, what held you back at Q3, given you've got clearly a reasonable capital buffer? Yes, there's some headwinds coming in Q4 from pension at Kensington, but another GBP 500 million, I don't know, what is 14, 15 bps of capital. Is this a management decision around being prudent? Or are there other regulatory considerations at play here?

您已經回答了我關於收入與成本的外匯敏感性問題。但我想就資本回報而言，Venkat，我想你今年早些時候已經談到了收益轉換和回購，你在第二季度做了 5 億英鎊。我想，是什麼讓你在第三季度退縮了，因為你顯然有一個合理的資本緩衝？是的，第四季度肯辛頓的養老金帶來了一些不利因素，但另外 5 億英鎊，我不知道，14、15 個基點的資本是多少。這是一個謹慎的管理決策嗎？還是這裡有其他監管考慮因素？

Joseph, it's a position which we will take in Q4. I mean, basically, that's it. We sort of did it at the year-end and the half year this year. And so we will talk about that on our annual earnings.

約瑟夫，這是我們將在第四季度採取的立場。我的意思是，基本上，就是這樣。我們在今年年底和半年做了一些事情。因此，我們將在我們的年收入中討論這一點。

Our next question is from Jonathan Pierce from Numis.

我們的下一個問題來自 Numis 的 Jonathan Pierce。

A couple of questions, one on the hedge and one on these fair value movements, if that's okay. The hedge, there was another GBP 10 billion, I think, added to the notion in Q3. I don't know whether FX has any influence on the size of that hedge. But clearly, in the U.K. bank, deposits haven't grown now for 3 or 4 quarters, but the hedge is still building. Just wondering, are you now fully hedged, do you think?

有幾個問題，一個是關於對沖的，一個是關於這些公允價值變動的，如果可以的話。對沖，我認為在第三季度增加了 100 億英鎊。我不知道外匯是否對該對沖的規模有任何影響。但很明顯，在這家英國銀行，存款已經有 3 個或 4 個季度沒有增長，但對沖仍在建立。只是想知道，您現在是否已完全對沖，您認為嗎？

Thinking about, excuse me, headwinds in the other direction moving forward, are you yet seeing any early signs of the hedged balances, particularly the 0% current accounts starting to shift into higher rate deposit accounts, either within Barclays or to other institutions? That's the first question.

想一想，在另一個方向前進的逆風，您是否看到任何對沖餘額的早期跡象，特別是 0% 的經常賬戶開始轉向更高利率的存款賬戶，無論是在巴克萊銀行還是其他機構？這是第一個問題。

The second question, the fair value movements through OCI, particularly regard to the debt portfolio. They were fairly small actually in the third quarter versus what we saw in the first half despite much bigger movement in interest rates. I've always been slightly confused as to what this portfolio is. And I guess the question is, given the extent of the rate moves we're now seeing, can I ask you to give us a bit more detail on why you have this seemingly unhedged debt pool? And can I infer from the relatively limited impact in Q3 that you've reduced the sensitivity to rate movement slightly significantly over the course of the last quarter or 2?

第二個問題，通過 OCI 的公允價值變動，特別是關於債務組合。儘管利率波動更大，但與我們在上半年看到的相比，第三季度的實際規模相當小。我一直對這個投資組合是什麼感到有些困惑。我想問題是，考慮到我們現在看到的利率變動幅度，我能否請你更詳細地說明為什麼你有這個看似沒有對沖的債務池？我能否從第三季度相對有限的影響中推斷出您在上一季度或第二季度略微顯著降低了對利率變動的敏感度？

Jonathan, on the hedge, the movement quarter-on-quarter is not a sterling movement. It actually relates to -- because your rate -- central bank rates have gone from negative to positive, it's a change in eligibility. So it doesn't impact the U.K. sterling parts ahead at all. So you're right, U.K. liabilities are broadly stable. We are seeing some take-up of savings products, but actually in a positive way and in a way that's completely in line with our expectations. We've got some good savings rates out there. And so we're seeing customers migrate to those as we expected them to. And all of that within our rate -- sorry, our hedge assumptions and the way that we created a buffer in that hedge.

喬納森，在對沖方面，季度環比走勢不是英鎊走勢。它實際上與 - 因為你的利率 - 中央銀行利率從負變為正，這是資格的變化。所以它根本不會影響英國的英鎊部分。所以你是對的，英國的負債大致穩定。我們看到了一些儲蓄產品的使用，但實際上是積極的，完全符合我們的預期。我們有一些不錯的儲蓄率。因此，我們看到客戶按照我們的預期遷移到那些客戶。所有這些都在我們的利率範圍內——抱歉，我們的對沖假設以及我們在該對沖中創建緩衝的方式。

As it relates to your fair value through OCI question, I can see why you might have expected a larger impact. If you look at the disclosure in the annual report, that gives an amount for a 25 basis point shop. And I guess your question relates to the fact that the gilt curves moved by more than that. What's going on here is, firstly, the disclosure in the annual report actually includes not only the liquidity buffer but shows the impact on the pension fund assets because the pension is in surplus, those movements are obviously neutral to capital. So you're not seeing that go through.

由於它通過 OCI 問題與您的公允價值有關，我可以理解為什麼您可能預期會產生更大的影響。如果您查看年度報告中的披露，則可以得出 25 個基點商店的金額。我猜你的問題與鍍金曲線移動的幅度不止於此有關。這裡的情況是，首先，年報中的披露實際上不僅包括流動性緩衝，還顯示了養老金盈餘對養老基金資產的影響，這些變動對資本顯然是中性的。所以你沒有看到它通過。

And then in relation to the liquidity buffer itself, a couple of things. Firstly, the portfolio is diversified. It's not just gilt. So there's a range of products in there. And secondly, we have taken down that risk. We've reduced outright risk as the year has progressed. And it's that really that's giving the smaller result in the third quarter.

然後關於流動性緩衝本身，有幾件事。首先，投資組合多元化。這不僅僅是鍍金。所以那裡有一系列產品。其次，我們已經降低了這種風險。隨著時間的推移，我們已經完全降低了風險。正是這確實在第三季度產生了較小的結果。

Our next question is from Rohith Chandra-Rajan from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rohith Chandra-Rajan。

Congratulations on a record FICC performance in the quarter. Just on, I guess, I mean, you discussed, Anna, in your comments that volatility is particularly heightened at the moment and you'd expect these trading revenues overall to decline over time. So in terms of helping us to think about the offsets to that, you mentioned FICC financing. I don't know if you can help us with what sort of proportion of FICC revenues that is and how that's grown year-on-year or over time. You mentioned a 30% increase in balances but just in terms of -- and wider margins, but just in terms of the revenue contribution?

祝賀本季度 FICC 業績創紀錄。剛剛，我想，我的意思是，安娜，你在評論中討論過，目前波動性特別高，你預計這些交易收入總體上會隨著時間的推移而下降。因此，在幫助我們考慮抵消這一點方面，您提到了 FICC 融資。我不知道您是否可以幫助我們了解 FICC 收入的比例，以及它是如何逐年或隨時間增長的。您提到餘額增加了 30%，但僅就利潤率和更大的利潤率而言，但僅就收入貢獻而言？

And then more generally, just how we should think about CIB revenues over the medium term versus very strong revenues for the last few years. So if trading income declines, what are the offsets to that? And how should we think about the medium term? And then the second area is just on asset quality. U.S. Cards particularly 30 days picked up in the quarter. I don't know if there's anything that you'd want to highlight there, in particular. And then back on your Downside 1 scenario, you've already talked about the sort of 20% HPI impact. So if I understand correctly, your current reserves effectively are equivalent to something like a 2.5% GDP contraction, 6.5% unemployment and 18% to 20% HPI. I just wanted to confirm if that's the case. And then also how quickly you think provisions normalize? What will be the drivers for that?

然後更一般地說，我們應該如何看待 CIB 的中期收入與過去幾年非常強勁的收入。那麼，如果交易收入下降，有什麼抵消措施呢？我們應該如何看待中期？然後第二個領域只是資產質量。美國卡在本季度特別是 30 天回升。我不知道你是否有什麼特別想強調的。然後回到您的第 1 個不利方面，您已經談到了 20% 的 HPI 影響。因此，如果我理解正確，您當前的儲備實際上相當於 GDP 收縮 2.5%、失業率下降 6.5% 和 HPI 上升 18% 到 20%。我只是想確認是不是這樣。然後還有你認為規定正常化的速度有多快？驅動因素是什麼？

Okay, I'm sure there's at least 2 questions if not a little bit more, but I'll let you get away with that. Okay. So we are pleased with FICC. That's our third quarter at over GBP 1.5 billion. And there's a few things in that. We've called out obviously the financing revenue. After proportions, that will move around a bit depending on what's going through trading. So it's actually -- we think it's actually a less helpful start. But we have seen balances grow by over 30% year-on-year. Spreads have widened. But more broadly than that, I think even in the flow side of FICC, we are seeing increased share pretty much across markets now. We think that's as a result of our client focus, but also the investment that we have put in the infrastructure and the talent in that business. So you're right, when volatility recedes, we might expect revenues to drop back. But they won't drop back, we believe, to levels pre-pandemic. And we think that's the most important thing.

好的，我敢肯定至少有 2 個問題，如果不是更多的話，但我會讓你僥倖逃脫。好的。因此，我們對 FICC 感到滿意。這是我們第三季度超過 15 億英鎊。其中有幾件事。我們顯然已經提到了融資收入。在比例之後，這將取決於交易的情況而有所變化。所以實際上 - 我們認為這實際上是一個不太有用的開始。但我們看到餘額同比增長超過 30%。價差擴大了。但更廣泛地說，我認為即使在 FICC 的流量方面，我們現在看到整個市場的份額都在增加。我們認為這是我們以客戶為中心的結果，也是我們對基礎設施和該業務人才的投資。所以你是對的，當波動性消退時，我們可能預計收入會回落。但我們相信，它們不會回落到大流行前的水平。我們認為這是最重要的。

What are the offsets to that? Well, there's clearly banking is having a quieter period right now. That is clearly driven by the same piece. Volatility in the market gives us elevated market revenue, depresses banking. So we'd expect that to come back somewhat. The other piece to remember because we always all forget is corporate and particularly transaction banking. Transaction banking is a stable franchise business, but one that is also benefiting from the investment that we've put behind it. You're seeing balances grow, you're seeing margins somewhat wider, but also through kind of nominal economic activity is staying sort of trade [finance], FX, et cetera, goes through there in fees. So whilst individual pieces might drop back, Rohith, we do have, I would say, increased confidence in the whole.

對此有何補償？好吧，顯然銀行業現在正處於一個安靜的時期。這顯然是由同一塊驅動的。市場波動給我們帶來了更高的市場收入，抑制了銀行業。因此，我們預計這種情況會有所恢復。因為我們總是忘記，另一件要記住的是公司，尤其是交易銀行業務。交易銀行業務是一項穩定的特許經營業務，但也受益於我們在其背後的投資。您會看到餘額增長，您看到利潤率有所擴大，而且通過某種名義經濟活動保持某種貿易[金融]、外匯等費用。因此，雖然個別作品可能會回落，但我會說，我們確實對整體增加了信心。

Venkat, before I go on to U.K. Cards, is there anything you would add for U.S. Cards?

Venkat，在我繼續 U.S. Cards 之前，你有什麼要為 U.S. Cards 添加的嗎？

Yes, I think I would echo what Anna said about confidence in the whole. I think as rates have risen and spreads have widened, system cum financing, not just balances, but profitability per unit of balance has increased. And it's long been part of the DNA of Barclays, we've got a market-leading position in this area. So I think it's part of a broad set of things within the markets business that represents a diversified portfolio of activity. But I think look to this in this kind of environment to provide an increasing -- I mean, a strong amount of balance to our returns.

是的，我想我會回應安娜所說的對整體的信心。我認為隨著利率上升和利差擴大，系統和融資，不僅僅是餘額，而且每單位餘額的盈利能力都增加了。長期以來，它一直是巴克萊 DNA 的一部分，我們在該領域處於市場領先地位。因此，我認為這是市場業務中代表多元化活動組合的廣泛事物的一部分。但我認為在這種環境中尋找這種情況可以提供增加——我的意思是，為我們的回報提供大量的平衡。

So sorry, just before we move on to the cards, could I just -- if you don't want to -- I appreciate, I don't want to give a proportion, but just can you help us scale the contribution from FICC financing?

很抱歉，在我們繼續討論之前，我能否——如果你不想——我很感激，我不想給出一個比例，但你能幫助我們擴大 FICC 的貢獻嗎融資？

We wouldn't give that out on a call like this, Rohith. We'll continue to consider our disclosure around FICC and indeed the other parts of the market, and we'll come back to you on that.

Rohith，我們不會在這樣的電話中透露這一點。我們將繼續考慮我們對 FICC 以及市場其他部分的披露，我們會就此回复您。

On U.S. Cards, arrears have ticked up a little. Balances are growing. We're seeing increased economic activity in the U.S. manifesting itself in our cards. But people are spending more, we're seeing organic growth. Given that movement from a very, very low base, we would expect to see some movement in staging and some movement in delinquencies. So we're not concerned by what we're seeing. It looks broadly in line with industry. It's what we would have expected. It remains quite a long way below pre-pandemic. And the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are pretty strong. Unemployment at 3.5%, and we're still seeing strong levels of repayment across that book. So no concern now.

在美國信用卡上，欠款有所增加。餘額正在增長。我們看到美國經濟活動的增加體現在我們的卡片上。但是人們的支出增加了，我們看到了有機增長。鑑於基數非常低的變動，我們預計會看到一些分期變動和一些拖欠變動。所以我們並不關心我們所看到的。它看起來與行業大體一致。這是我們所期望的。與大流行前相比，它仍然有很長的路要走。美國經濟的基本面相當強勁。失業率為 3.5%，我們仍然看到這本書的還款水平很高。所以現在不用擔心。

I would -- so let me move on to your final part, which was around the disclosure on Downside 1. So yes, what we've done is we've shown you what would happen if we weighted 100% to Downside 1 scenario. And we've called out for you the main macroeconomic variables that Downside 1 represents. So 6.5% unemployment in the U.K., for example. So you're right, that's the comparison we're drawing. So in other words, if we saw Downside 1 pan out exactly as we show it in that model, then we would expect to cover it with the PMAs. Sometimes the macroeconomic variables don't flow exactly the way we model them to. So that's a specific scenario that we're calling there. But we feel like we're well covered. Finally, on provisions, just remind me of your last...

我會 - 所以讓我繼續你的最後一部分，即關於下行 1 的披露。所以是的，我們所做的是向你展示瞭如果我們對下行 1 情景進行 100% 加權會發生什麼。我們已經為您指出了下行 1 所代表的主要宏觀經濟變量。例如，英國的失業率為 6.5%。所以你是對的，這就是我們正在繪製的比較。因此，換句話說，如果我們看到 Downside 1 與我們在該模型中展示的完全一樣，那麼我們希望用 PMA 覆蓋它。有時，宏觀經濟變量的流動方式與我們建模的方式並不完全相同。所以這是我們在此調用的特定場景。但我們覺得我們被很好地覆蓋了。最後，關於規定，只是提醒我你的最後...

There were 2 topics, but the pace of normalization.

有2個主題，但速度正常化。

Yes, so the pace of normalization. I guess we would expect to trend towards that 50 to 60 as we grow and economic activity recovers. The thing I'd just call out for you is given the nature of IFRS 9 that pathway won't necessarily be linear. We can see some lumpiness. So that's more a sort of go-to position once we see economic volatility sort of settle down a bit.

是的，所以正常化的步伐。我想隨著我們的增長和經濟活動的複蘇，我們預計會朝著 50 到 60 的趨勢發展。鑑於 IFRS 9 的性質，我要為您指出的是，路徑不一定是線性的。我們可以看到一些腫塊。因此，一旦我們看到經濟波動稍微穩定下來，這更像是一種首選立場。

Our next question is from Omar Keenan from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Omar Keenan。

I've also got a follow-up question on the Downside 1 scenario, and a second question on bank taxation. So firstly, on the Downside 1 scenario, thank you for that helpful disclosure. And I think we can more make kind of assumptions of various downside cases, but GDP down to unemployment of 6%, probably not as bad as you can imagine things, but it's probably a reasonable downside case for now. So if things were to materialize in that direction, could we assume that there would be a smooth allocation of the post-model adjustments towards the modeled provisions, kind of somewhat like we have seen this quarter? Or do you think there could be pressures to keep the uncertainty buffer at a high level despite the macroeconomic deterioration?

我還有一個關於下行 1 情景的後續問題，以及關於銀行稅收的第二個問題。因此，首先，在下行 1 的情況下，感謝您提供的有益披露。而且我認為我們可以更多地對各種下行情況做出假設，但 GDP 下降到 6% 的失業率，可能沒有你想像的那麼糟糕，但目前這可能是一個合理的下行情況。因此，如果事情朝著這個方向發展，我們是否可以假設模型後的調整會順利分配到模擬條款，有點像我們在本季度看到的那樣？還是您認為儘管宏觀經濟惡化，仍存在將不確定性緩衝保持在高水平的壓力？

And just related to that, could I ask you how confident you feel in that Downside 1 model scenario? I guess the question is that with interest rates where they are, could that affect the ability of otherwise performing exposures to pay. Just want to get a feel as to how confident you are in that modeled number given that is a model.

與此相關的是，我能否問您對 Downside 1 模型場景有多大信心？我想問題是，在利率不變的情況下，這是否會影響以其他方式進行風險敞口的支付能力。只是想感受一下你對這個模型的信心有多大，因為它是一個模型。

And then the second question on bank taxes, obviously, there's a bit of discussion around where the surcharge is going to be set. I wonder if you can give us any update there and whether you've had any discussions with the Bank of England on reserve tiering.

然後是關於銀行稅的第二個問題，顯然，關於附加費的設置位置存在一些討論。我想知道您是否可以在那裡向我們提供任何更新，以及您是否與英格蘭銀行就準備金分層進行過任何討論。

Omar, good question on the impairment. We'll take that quarter-by-quarter. You can see what we've done this quarter. We've seen a general sort of movement in the (inaudible) and we broadly offset that. And the answer is whether or not or where that impairment starts to manifest itself. So for example, in the U.K. -- in the U.K. retail bank, we are holding a sort of general economic uncertainty PMA, whereas in the wholesale side of things, we have much, much more sector-specific. So I would expect it to have some smoothing impact. Whether or not it's exactly smooth quarter-by-quarter will depend where that impairment manifests itself.

奧馬爾，關於損傷的好問題。我們將按季度計算。您可以看到我們本季度所做的工作。我們已經在（聽不清）中看到了一種普遍的運動，我們廣泛地抵消了這種運動。答案是這種損害是否或從何處開始顯現。因此，例如，在英國——在英國零售銀行，我們持有一種普遍的經濟不確定性 PMA，而在批發方面，我們有更多、更具體的部門。所以我希望它會產生一些平滑的影響。它是否逐個季度完全平穩將取決於這種損害在哪裡表現出來。

And in relation to Downside 1, I mean you're right, no model is ever perfect, and I'm going to hand to Venkat in a moment because I know you'll have a view. These models were built during periods of low interest rates. And so there is clearly an impact on affordability from inflation and from interest rates, which is difficult for those models to represent. But that's why we've been conservative in our Stage 1 and Stage 2 provisioning. So when you look at the Stage 1 and 2 provisioning across the unsecured books, in particular, that's how we're trying to protect ourselves against that.

關於下行 1，我的意思是你是對的，沒有一個模型是完美的，我馬上就交給 Venkat，因為我知道你會有一個看法。這些模型是在低利率時期建立的。因此，通貨膨脹和利率顯然會對負擔能力產生影響，而這些模型很難表示。但這就是為什麼我們在第 1 階段和第 2 階段的配置中一直很保守。因此，當您特別查看跨無擔保賬簿的第 1 階段和第 2 階段配置時，這就是我們試圖保護自己免受這種情況影響的方式。

Yes, I mean, exactly right, Anna. I think what you should see -- look at is the combination of the model output plus our extra post-model adjustment as our view of what we think is appropriate given the current macroeconomic conditions and the uncertainty of the model behavior around it. Now if conditions change and we get less uncertainty, we will do what we just did this quarter. But it's sort of -- we're also looking at signs of consumer behavior, and we will make adjustments to that. But I think you've got to expect all other things being equal, that we would look at it the way we did this quarter.

是的，我的意思是，完全正確，安娜。我認為您應該看到的是模型輸出加上我們額外的模型後調整的組合，作為我們認為鑑於當前宏觀經濟狀況和模型行為的不確定性而認為合適的觀點。現在，如果條件發生變化並且我們的不確定性減少，我們將做本季度剛剛做的事情。但這有點——我們也在關註消費者行為的跡象，我們將對此進行調整。但我認為你必須期待所有其他事情都是平等的，我們會像本季度那樣看待它。

And if I can then go to your second question, which is about taxes, and you have 2 parts. One is reserve tiering and the other was surcharge. Look, on the overall taxation matter, it is something for the government and for the (inaudible) to say, we read the same newspapers as you do. And so we'll wait for the budget statement to know what it is and on reserve tiering, I think the Bank of England has been fairly clear that they don't believe in reserve tiering as tool of monetary policy. So we'll go with that too.

如果我可以回答您的第二個問題，即關於稅收的問題，您有兩個部分。一個是儲備分層，另一個是附加費。看，在整體稅收問題上，政府和（聽不清）說，我們和你讀的報紙一樣。所以我們將等待預算聲明知道它是什麼，關於準備金分層，我認為英格蘭銀行已經相當清楚他們不相信將準備金分層作為貨幣政策的工具。所以我們也會這樣做。

Our next question is from Chris Cant from Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Chris Cant。

Thanks to the FX color in the slides as well. That's much, much appreciated. If I could just invite you to talk about your view on returns into next year, please. You've had a very long-standing, greater than 10% RoTE target. I think you originally gave that back in 2017 as a medium-term target. You're expecting to deliver that this year despite obviously the shelf over issuance charges you've taken, which you're not expecting to repeat next year. Your TNAV is dropping because of rates. You've got a meaningful FX tailwind, per your earlier comments, looking into next year. Should you not be targeting something more punchy on a forward-looking view?

還要感謝幻燈片中的 FX 顏色。這是非常非常感謝的。如果我能邀請你談談你對明年回報的看法，請。你有一個非常長期的、大於 10% 的 RoTE 目標。我認為您最初在 2017 年將其作為中期目標。儘管您顯然已經收取了過多的發行費用，但您預計今年會實現這一目標，您預計明年不會重複。由於費率，您的 TNAV 正在下降。根據您之前的評論，您有一個有意義的外匯順風，展望明年。你不應該在前瞻性的觀點上瞄準更有力的東西嗎？

And do you expect to be revisiting that 10% figure, please? And then on the structural hedge, obviously, we've had years of growth in the structural hedge. It's up very materially since pre-COVID levels. I appreciate your comments about some migration into savings products as an alternative to current account. Do you expect your structural hedge notional to shrink in the coming years, please, do you expect that size to be coming down as the yield is in...

你是否希望重新審視那個 10% 的數字，好嗎？然後在結構性對沖方面，顯然，我們在結構性對沖方面已經有多年的增長。自 COVID 之前的水平以來，它的漲幅非常大。我感謝您對某些遷移到儲蓄產品以替代經常賬戶的評論。您是否預計您的結構性對沖名義在未來幾年會縮小，請，您是否預計隨著收益率的下降，規模會下降……

Okay, so on returns, you're right, we've made good progress towards that target for FY '22, and we delivered greater than 10% in FY '21. The target is deliberately a slow -- so it's greater than 10%. And you can see that for a few quarters now, that's where we've set our expectation. And we won't update, Chris, at this juncture. I'll take your point on TNAV. But given the effect on reserves of some of the macroeconomic volatility that we've seen, that TNAV number is moving around quite a lot. It's probably moved significantly since the quarter end, again, I would think. So we're not going to update at this point. But I would just note it is a floor to our expectations. Venkat, anything you'd add?

好的，所以關於回報，你是對的，我們在 22 財年的目標方面取得了良好進展，我們在 21 財年實現了超過 10% 的目標。目標是故意放慢的——所以它大於 10%。您現在可以看到幾個季度，這就是我們設定期望的地方。克里斯，我們不會在這個時候更新。我會同意你對 TNAV 的看法。但考慮到我們已經看到的一些宏觀經濟波動對儲備的影響，TNAV 數字波動很大。我認為，自季度末以來，它可能再次發生了顯著變化。所以我們現在不打算更新。但我只想指出，這是我們期望的底線。 Venkat，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

I'll repeat what Anna and echo what Anna has said, which is it is a floor. You're right that we said it in 2017 is a medium-term target, and I'm glad we've lived up to that medium-term target. And we'll continue to think about it. Do you want to go to the second?

我將重複 Anna 的內容並回應 Anna 所說的內容，即它是一個地板。你說得對，我們在 2017 年說它是一個中期目標，我很高興我們實現了這個中期目標。我們將繼續考慮它。你想去第二個嗎？

Yes, sure. So when we put the structural hedge together, Chris, you'll note that we've done it over a series of quarters. We've been very thoughtful about how we've built the hedge and at all stages, we've assessed the outflow risk versus the opportunity cost of not putting their hedge on. And we've obviously maintained a buffer for conservatism as we put that together. That buffer contains our expectations of product migration. If that proves to be wrong, obviously, we are rolling a portion of the hedge month-by-month as well. So that gives us further flexibility. But to date, the moves that we've seen have been in line with our expectations, and we did build it conservatively, we believe.

是的，當然。因此，當我們將結構性對沖放在一起時，克里斯，您會注意到我們已經在一系列季度中完成了這項工作。我們對如何建立對沖非常深思熟慮，並且在所有階段，我們都評估了流出風險與不進行對沖的機會成本。當我們把這些放在一起時，我們顯然為保守主義保留了緩衝。該緩衝區包含我們對產品遷移的期望。如果這被證明是錯誤的，顯然，我們也在逐月滾動部分對沖。所以這給了我們更大的靈活性。但迄今為止，我們所看到的舉措符合我們的預期，我們相信我們確實保守地建立了它。

So if -- I mean I'm just trying to think through everything you just said there, the size of the buffer that you had in scaling the hedge took into account, things like large competitors' offering to 75 bps on instant access savings and 4% on 1-year fixed bond, that was sort of part of your scaling of the hedge? I guess the move in rates in recent months has been very dramatic. We're talking about U.K. base rate going to maybe double the level of consensus would have been thinking about even 3 months ago. But that was part of your scaling of the hedge, you were factoring in that magnitude of rates movement?

所以如果——我的意思是我只是想仔細考慮你剛才所說的一切，考慮到你在擴展對沖時所擁有的緩衝區大小，比如大型競爭對手提供的即時訪問節省 75 bps 和4% 的 1 年期固定債券，這是你擴大對沖規模的一部分嗎？我想最近幾個月的利率變動非常劇烈。我們談論的是英國的基本利率可能會是 3 個月前所考慮的共識水平的兩倍。但那是你擴大對沖規模的一部分，你是否考慮了利率變動的幅度？

So as we scale the hedge, we identify what we believe are rate-sensitive -- rate-sensitive balances. So in part, yes, clearly, not the specific rates that you've quoted their rates are moving all the time. We have a -- we believe we've got a competitive savings products ourselves. And actually, we're seeing a little migration and in fact, thought to be no migration out of the bank and migration within our expectations to those products. So I mean, that's probably where I'd leave it, Chris. We do consider migration when we put the hedge together.

因此，當我們擴大對沖規模時，我們確定了我們認為對利率敏感的——利率敏感餘額。所以在某種程度上，是的，很明顯，不是你引用的具體利率一直在變化。我們有一個——我們相信我們自己有一個有競爭力的儲蓄產品。實際上，我們看到了一些遷移，事實上，被認為沒有遷移出銀行，並且在我們對這些產品的預期範圍內遷移。所以我的意思是，這可能就是我要離開的地方，克里斯。當我們把對沖放在一起時，我們確實考慮了遷移。

Our next question is from Martin Leitgeb from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Martin Leitgeb。

I was just going to ask a broader question with regards to the outlook for your U.K. business and just specifically with regards to mortgage rates. Mortgage rates in the U.K. have risen from around 2% at the turn of the year to around 6% most recently. And I was just wondering how do you see this impacting your business? One, in terms of affordability? Has the underwriting been at such a level that essentially the back of your mortgage borrowers can essentially afford this higher rates without cutting spending too much?

我只是想問一個更廣泛的問題，關於你的英國業務的前景，特別是關於抵押貸款利率的問題。英國的抵押貸款利率已從年初的 2% 左右上升到最近的 6% 左右。我只是想知道您如何看待這會影響您的業務？一，在負擔能力方面？承銷水平是否達到了抵押貸款借款人基本上可以承受更高利率而無需過多削減支出的水平？

And secondly, in terms of what this higher mortgage rate means in terms for the outlook for growth in terms of balances both on the loan side, so mortgage growth, credit card growth, but also in terms of deposit balances could the higher mortgage rates essentially be an incentive for customers using some of their deposits to more aggressively pay down mortgages as incentives [leading to a] meaningful change in terms of the outlook for growth?

其次，就貸款方面的餘額增長前景而言，這種較高的抵押貸款利率意味著什麼，因此抵押貸款增長、信用卡增長以及存款餘額方面，較高的抵押貸款利率可能是激勵客戶使用他們的一些存款更積極地償還抵押貸款作為激勵[導致]增長前景方面的有意義的變化？

Let me try to take the first crack at it, and I'll ask Anna to join in, good questions all. First of all, on mortgages, we've got a very large mature book. Our average LTV is around 50%. The way the U.K. market is with a combination of 3-year and 5-year effects, about 30% of our mortgage book will refinance over the next year, let's say, by the end of 2023. And so a little bit of that in 2022 and about 1/4 of it in 2023. And so what that does, and to part of your other question is, obviously, when we do issue mortgages, we do stress them with a fairly big shock in interest rates in terms of affordability. So the combination of that and the fact it's about 25% to 30%, I think mutes its impact on its portfolio. And I think also what you want to -- what we are seeing in the U.K. is a little bit of monthly over payments. It represents 20% -- 20 basis points, sorry, of our total balances. It's a very small fraction. But you are seeing it, which is good from a credit quality point of view, but it's also prudent financial management, as you might expect. So I think broadly, the behavior is, as you would expect it in an environment like this. Anna?

讓我先嘗試一下，然後我會請安娜加入，都是好問題。首先，關於抵押貸款，我們有一本非常大的成熟書籍。我們的平均 LTV 約為 50%。英國市場的方式是結合了 3 年和 5 年的影響，我們大約 30% 的抵押貸款賬簿將在明年再融資，比如說到 2023 年底。 2022 年和 2023 年的大約 1/4。所以，這有什麼作用，對於你的另一個問題，顯然，當我們確實發行抵押貸款時，我們確實會在負擔能力方面對它們施加相當大的利率衝擊.因此，將其與大約 25% 到 30% 的事實相結合，我認為可以減輕其對其投資組合的影響。而且我還認為您想要的-我們在英國看到的是每月超額付款的一點點。抱歉，它占我們總餘額的 20% - 20 個基點。這是很小的一部分。但是您看到了，從信用質量的角度來看，這很好，但正如您所料，這也是審慎的財務管理。所以我廣泛地認為，行為是，正如你在這樣的環境中所期望的那樣。安娜？

Yes, I think I'd agree with all of that. And the other thing I would say is that given the house price inflation we've seen over the last few years, the LTV of the customers coming to refinance now will be lower than it was when they took out their mortgages. And that might be part of the incentive that's behind the overpayment trends that we see right now, the opportunity to sort of move yourself down an LTV bracket.

是的，我想我會同意所有這些。我要說的另一件事是，鑑於我們在過去幾年中看到的房價上漲，現在進行再融資的客戶的 LTV 將低於他們申請抵押貸款時的水平。這可能是我們現在看到的超額支付趨勢背後的動機的一部分，這是讓自己降低 LTV 等級的機會。

From here in, in terms of sort of loans growth, I would say this feels like a remortgage market rather than a house price market. That will necessarily lead to lower net growth, I would think. So I'd expect to see strong remortgage demand but a large part of that will be churn in the market. In terms of sort of the rest of loans growth, I mean you can see from repayment rates that we've sort of talked about in cards, IEL growth, the interest-earning lending growth in cards will probably be a bit sluggish as well. But given where we are in the credit cycle, I think we're okay with that. So probably a little bit more muted on loans growth. And similar in deposits, in comparison to what we saw during the COVID period, we've already seen that slow down a bit seeing a bit of migration, but within our expectations as customers putting that money to work, whether that be in savings or indeed through mortgages.

從這裡開始，就貸款增長而言，我會說這感覺像是一個轉按市場，而不是一個房價市場。我認為，這必然會導致淨增長下降。因此，我預計會看到強勁的轉按需求，但其中很大一部分將在市場上流失。就其他貸款增長而言，我的意思是你可以從我們在卡中談到的還款率、IEL 增長中看到，卡中的生息貸款增長可能也會有些緩慢。但考慮到我們在信貸週期中的位置，我認為我們可以接受。因此，貸款增長可能會更加溫和。存款方面也類似，與我們在 COVID 期間看到的情況相比，我們已經看到，隨著客戶將這筆錢用於工作，無論是儲蓄還是儲蓄，這都在我們的預期之內。確實是通過抵押貸款。

Could I just follow up on the outlook for cost growth in the U.K. It was obviously started the year with a very strong trend. Would you expect that to slow down as a consequence?

我能否跟進英國的成本增長前景？顯然，今年開始時趨勢非常強勁。你會期望這會因此放緩嗎？

Card growth in the U.K., I would say -- so let me distinguish 2 things. I think headline growth or headline balances may grow, but that's in part our strategy. We are trying to pivot the book towards spend rather than lend, our newer way of product is doing pretty well in terms of take up. I wouldn't expect that to translate through to significant increases in interest-earning lending. Customers are being very cautious in the current environment and the repayment rates that we are seeing remain very elevated.

我想說的是英國的卡片增長——所以讓我區分兩件事。我認為總體增長或總體餘額可能會增長，但這在一定程度上是我們的戰略。我們正試圖將這本書轉向消費而不是藉出，我們的新產品方式在使用方面做得很好。我不認為這會轉化為生息貸款的顯著增加。客戶在當前環境下非常謹慎，我們看到的還款率仍然很高。

Our next question is from Edward Firth from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Edward Firth。

I just had a couple of questions really both around credit. What I'm trying to do in my mind is I'm just trying to square your comments at the beginning about the outlook for the U.K. and the demand in an uncertain environment, and I guess that's sort of consistent with what consensus is viewing the U.K. with your comment that you expect provisions to normalize because it seems to me those 2 are inconsistent. Either that means your normal provisions is not a normal provision, it's actually a peak provision, and we should be thinking about Barclays through-the-cycle provisions being much lower than perhaps you have done in the past? Or potentially, we could see provisions go somewhere above normal because the environment is not normal, I guess, I suppose that would be my first question.

我只是有幾個關於信用的問題。我想做的是，我只是想在開始時就您對英國前景和不確定環境中的需求發表評論，我想這與人們對英國的看法一致英國您的評論是您希望條款正常化，因為在我看來這兩個不一致。要么這意味著您的正常撥備不是正常撥備，它實際上是峰值撥備，我們應該考慮巴克萊的整個週期撥備比您過去所做的要低得多？或者潛在地，我們可能會看到規定超出正常水平，因為環境不正常，我想，我想這將是我的第一個問題。

Just really to understand how you're talking about normalized in the economic outlook. And I guess related to that, in terms of your PMAs, am I right? Just to get this clear. If you hadn't released the GBP 300 million PMA, sort of override, your charge this quarter would have been about 70 basis points. Is that -- I just checked that my understanding is correct on that.

只是要真正了解您所說的經濟前景如何正常化。我想與您的PMA相關，對嗎？只是為了弄清楚這一點。如果你沒有發布 3 億英鎊的 PMA，有點覆蓋，你本季度的費用將約為 70 個基點。是嗎 - 我剛剛檢查了我的理解是否正確。

And then finally, could you tell us something about what's happening at the front line in terms of just in the last month? I know it's not really part of the quarter, but I'm thinking we saw this big uptick in mortgage costs really just over the last month. And I just wondered if you could give us some insight in terms of what is happening in terms of volumes of new business in October. Are you seeing an uptick in rejection rates? Are you finding that people are not meeting your affordability criteria anymore? Or just something that's very specifically in the last month really since the results end rather than during the quarter, if that would be okay.

最後，你能告訴我們一些關於上個月前線發生的事情嗎？我知道這並不是本季度的一部分，但我認為我們在上個月真的看到了抵押貸款成本的大幅上漲。我只是想知道您是否可以就 10 月份的新業務量方面的情況向我們提供一些見解。你看到拒絕率上升了嗎？您是否發現人們不再符合您的負擔能力標準？或者只是在上個月非常具體的事情，因為結果結束而不是在本季度，如果這樣可以的話。

Ed, so let me deal with the simple one first. And so your articulation of the impact of the PMAs is exactly correct. However, what I would say is that, that's exactly why we established the PMAs in the first place because we felt that the economic environment was extremely uncertain and that the consensus that we were using for the models did not adequately capture the best that we have. So that's what we expect it to happen, that is what happened. And therefore, that's why we released the PMA.

Ed，所以讓我先處理簡單的。因此，您對 PMA 影響的表述是完全正確的。然而，我想說的是，這正是我們首先建立 PMA 的原因，因為我們認為經濟環境極其不確定，而且我們用於模型的共識並沒有充分捕捉到我們擁有的最佳狀態.所以這就是我們期望它發生的事情，這就是發生的事情。因此，這就是我們發布 PMA 的原因。

In relation to your credit question, I think I followed it. So let me have a go. There's a bit of a dichotomy here between what we see now on the ground, no visible stress and the macroeconomic forecast and indeed beyond those macroeconomic forecast into some of the economic commentary. So there's a number of different views that we are dealing with here. But to a certain extent, it points to the conversation we had before, which is we would expect to trend towards a through-the-cycle cost of risk. But if we are to see macroeconomic shocks in terms of expected environment, in 1 direction or another, I would expect that to be lumpy. That's just the nature of IFRS 9 and a little bit of what you've seen in the current quarter.

關於您的信用問題，我想我遵循了它。所以讓我試一試。我們現在在實地看到的情況、沒有明顯的壓力和宏觀經濟預測之間存在一些二分法，實際上超出了宏觀經濟預測之外的一些經濟評論。因此，我們在這里處理了許多不同的觀點。但在一定程度上，它指向了我們之前的對話，即我們預計會趨向於整個週期的風險成本。但是，如果我們要在預期環境方面看到宏觀經濟衝擊，在一個方向或另一個方向上，我預計這將是崎嶇不平的。這只是 IFRS 9 的本質，也是您在本季度看到的一點點。

Let me take the other question about what's going on in the front line, especially since the end of September. Well, obviously, the end of September came in the middle of the peak of the scale volatility. And the -- outside of the capital markets, there was a bit of a rush for people to adjust their mortgages fearing even higher rates. And what we were doing was we were processing the applications, and we saw a little bit of an uptick on that. On the consumer -- on the credit side, what I would say is initial conditions coming into this has been very strong. So a high consumer balance sheet, high amount of support that people have experienced in COVID, low unemployment which continues. All of these things continue. And then, obviously, higher energy prices, but increased government support to manage those energy prices. So with all of that and with our rising cost of living and then at the end, higher mortgage rate, we're seeing a little bit of decline in consumer confidence in our own private pooling of it. So how people feel about their consumer -- about their finances. We see people being more careful in their spending and the management and certain nonessential types of spending, but we are not seeing credit stress. About 1% of our customers are in financial assistance, which is a fairly low number. So we're not seeing it. Obviously, we have to be cautious because we don't know how much deeper some of these things can get. We are in the middle of a rate rising cycle, which just generally tends not to be good for growth. Growth in the U.K. has been low anyway. So we've got to be cautious looking ahead. But as sort of a live indication right now, people are managing their finances carefully.

讓我談談另一個問題，前線發生了什麼，特別是自 9 月底以來。嗯，很明顯，9 月底是規模波動的高峰期。而且——在資本市場之外，人們有點急於調整抵押貸款，因為他們擔心利率會更高。我們正在做的是我們正在處理應用程序，我們看到了一點點上升。在消費者方面——在信貸方面，我想說的是進入這個階段的初始條件非常強大。因此，高消費資產負債表，人們在 COVID 中經歷的大量支持，持續的低失業率。所有這些事情還在繼續。然後，很明顯，能源價格上漲，但政府增加了管理這些能源價格的支持。因此，隨著所有這些以及我們生活成本的上升以及最終抵押貸款利率的上升，我們看到消費者對我們自己的私人資金池的信心略有下降。那麼人們如何看待他們的消費者——他們的財務狀況。我們看到人們在支出和管理以及某些非必要類型的支出方面更加謹慎，但我們沒有看到信貸壓力。我們大約 1% 的客戶獲得經濟援助，這是一個相當低的數字。所以我們沒有看到它。顯然，我們必須謹慎，因為我們不知道其中一些事情可以深入到什麼程度。我們正處於加息週期的中間，這通常對增長不利。無論如何，英國的增長一直很低。所以我們必須謹慎地展望未來。但作為目前的一種實時跡象，人們正在謹慎管理他們的財務。

Our next question is from Guy Stebbings from BNP Paribas Exane.

我們的下一個問題來自 BNP Paribas Exane 的 Guy Stebbings。

The first one was just on the appetite to lend in the U.K. right now. I guess, you've given a bit of a flavor around why you're happy to see sluggish growth given the backdrop. But how does that sort of play into the spreads you'd like to get on new lending? Obviously, there's a lot of volatility on mortgage rates given where stock rates have moved. The interest in where you'd expect things to settle if we see some stability in swap rates. I mean should we expect slightly larger spreads than what we might have seen in recent history given just to account for high risk of credit losses, RWA migration, et cetera? So that's the first question.

第一個只是現在想在英國放貸。我想，您已經對為什麼在這種背景下看到緩慢增長感到高興的原因有所了解。但是，這種情況如何影響您希望獲得新貸款的利差？顯然，鑑於股票利率的變動，抵押貸款利率存在很大波動。如果我們看到掉期利率有些穩定，那麼對您期望事情解決的地方的興趣。我的意思是，考慮到信用損失、風險加權資產遷移等的高風險，我們是否應該預期比我們在近期歷史上看到的利差略大？所以這是第一個問題。

The second one was on ECL coverage. It's been clear there's been very little change in the quarter. And I know you've reduced the weighting for downside scenarios in the IFRS models, you might expect the opposite. Although appreciate Downside 2 scenario is very severe. But in coverage terms, I think most would say things have got worse, not better than the last 3 months for, say, mortgage debt service ratios, et cetera. Is it just the case that it's just not bad enough to really move the needle on the ECLs that you would look to hold? And just a quick follow-up on that as well. Thanks for all the color on the downside scenarios. Can you just remind me how you account for negative stage migration into, say, wholesale Stage 3, for instance, when you come out with those ECL numbers?

第二個是關於 ECL 的報導。很明顯，本季度的變化很小。而且我知道您已經降低了 IFRS 模型中下行情景的權重，您可能會期望相反。雖然欣賞下行 2 的情況非常嚴重。但在覆蓋範圍方面，我認為大多數人會說情況變得更糟，比如抵押貸款償債率等，並不比過去 3 個月好。是不是還不夠糟糕，無法真正移動您希望持有的 ECL 上的指針？以及對此的快速跟進。感謝所有不利情況的顏色。您能否提醒我，例如，當您得出這些 ECL 數字時，您是如何將負面階段遷移到批發階段 3 的？

Okay. Let me try those and I'm sure Venkat will add. So in terms of, I guess, lending demand, lending supply and how that plays into margins specifically in relation to mortgages. I mean the mortgage market is competitive. It's always competitive. We've seen it move in line with the yield curve, and we'd expect it to do that. As I said before, pricing will be keen not least because if this is a remortgage market that tends to be very competitive. Customers are remortgaging early, they will be looking for the best possible value. So we'd expect margins to be quite keen not only on the front book, but that will create some churn pressure I would expect also. As it relates to sort of credit expectations and how that plays into pricing, I mean, I would expect that market participants price for us through the cycle view of risk. So increased sort of credit concerns sort of per se, I wouldn't expect it to impact pricing significantly.

好的。讓我試試這些，我相信 Venkat 會添加的。因此，我想，就貸款需求、貸款供應以及這對抵押貸款的利潤率有何影響。我的意思是抵押貸款市場競爭激烈。它總是有競爭力的。我們已經看到它與收益率曲線一致，我們預計它會這樣做。正如我之前所說，定價將是敏銳的，尤其是因為如果這是一個競爭激烈的轉按市場。客戶提前轉貸，他們將尋找可能的最佳價值。因此，我們預計利潤率不僅在封面上非常敏銳，而且會產生一些我預期的客戶流失壓力。由於它與某種信用預期以及它如何影響定價有關，我的意思是，我希望市場參與者通過風險的周期觀點為我們定價。因此，增加的信用問題本身，我不認為它會顯著影響定價。

In terms of your sort of coverage point, I think we believe that our coverage is appropriate. You've obviously seen it go up from Q1 -- sorry, from Q2 to Q3 in terms of our early-stage coverage in unsecured, in particular, that we feel like we're appropriately covered there. Venkat, anything you would?

就您的報導點而言，我認為我們認為我們的報導是適當的。您顯然已經看到它從第一季度上升 - 抱歉，從第二季度到第三季度，就我們對無擔保的早期覆蓋而言，特別是我們覺得我們在那裡得到了適當的覆蓋。文卡特，你願意嗎？

Yes, I agree with Anna. Look, we're dealing with an environment that has been choppy. We are dealing with models that tend to be procyclical and which has been built on a period, as Anna mentioned earlier, of generally falling rates and falling employment -- unemployment. So we have to recognize the weaknesses in the models we use, and that's what we've tried to do. And I think we put forward our best estimates. And I think using the combination of the 2, try to manage it in a predictable way related to the environment that's outside. So we feel reasonably comfortable with the way we are reflecting both of these 2 things.

是的，我同意安娜的觀點。看，我們正在處理一個不穩定的環境。我們正在處理的模型往往是順週期的，並且正如安娜之前提到的那樣，該模型建立在一個普遍下降的利率和就業下降的時期——失業。所以我們必須認識到我們使用的模型的弱點，這就是我們試圖做的。我認為我們提出了最好的估計。而且我認為使用兩者的組合，嘗試以與外部環境相關的可預測方式對其進行管理。所以我們對我們反映這兩件事的方式感到相當舒服。

I think if you look at the balance sheet on aggregate, Guy, what you can see is that we've got GBP 6.4 billion of provisions, GBP 2.4 billion of that relates to defaulted stock. So GBP 4 billion that is against non-defaulted stock. And that's in an environment where, as you can see from the chart that we showed in the presentation, we strongly feel that the quality of the book that we have in terms of the risk on it or its shape is lower than it was. And indeed, in wholesale, we've increased the level of first loss protection. So it's actually a number of things coming together and looking at individual sort of scenarios. I don't think it quite captures the extent of our confirm. Could you just repeat your third question, please?

我想如果你看一下資產負債表，Guy，你會看到我們有 64 億英鎊的撥備，其中 24 億英鎊與違約股票有關。所以 40 億英鎊是針對非違約股票的。從我們在演示文稿中展示的圖表中可以看出，在這種環境下，我們強烈認為我們所擁有的書籍的質量（就其風險或其形狀而言）低於以前。事實上，在批發方面，我們提高了首次損失保護水平。因此，實際上是將許多事情放在一起並查看各個場景。我不認為它完全捕捉到我們確認的程度。請你重複你的第三個問題好嗎？

Yes, the third question, sort of follow-on, was just around how stage migration is embedded into the ECL disclosure you give for downside scenarios, just to sort of gauge the relative conservatism of the ECLs that come out and sort of comments around you could switch the PMA to absorb the Downside 1 scenario.

是的，第三個問題，有點像後續問題，只是關於階段遷移如何嵌入到您針對不利情況提供的 ECL 披露中，只是為了衡量出現的 ECL 的相對保守性以及您周圍的評論可以切換 PMA 以吸收下行 1 情景。

I'm sorry, I still don't understand your question. Guy, we want to just take that out of the room. We'll come back to you, probably need to -- can we have the next question, please?

對不起，我還是不明白你的問題。伙計，我們想把它帶出房間。我們會回來找你的，可能需要 - 我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Our next question is from Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Adam Terelak。

I have a couple around capital management in the CIB. I know you've had the roll-off of the ETN hedging, but RWA generally just look quite light for the quarter. You've got loans up kind of double-digit Q-on-Q but risk weights are at much less than that. So I was just wondering what's going on behind the scenes there in terms of balance sheet management into quarter end. I know you mentioned kind of you're adding credit hedges on the wholesale portfolio, whether that's had an impact. And then as a follow-on to that, clearly, you guys are involved in a big leverage finance deal, headlines suggest that might end up on your balance sheet. Rather than commenting specifically on the deal, can you just maybe anecdotally talk about how you'd be managing that risk in reference we've already done in the third quarter?

我有幾個在 CIB 從事資本管理工作。我知道您已經對 ETN 對沖進行了滾降，但 RWA 通常在本季度看起來很輕。你已經獲得了兩位數的 Q-on-Q 貸款，但風險權重遠低於此。所以我只是想知道在資產負債表管理方面到季度末的幕後發生了什麼。我知道你提到過你在批發投資組合中添加信用對沖，這是否產生了影響。然後作為後續行動，很明顯，你們參與了一項大型槓桿融資交易，頭條新聞表明這可能最終會出現在你的資產負債表上。與其具體評論這筆交易，您能否僅談一談您將如何管理我們在第三季度已經完成的參考中的風險？

Okay, in relation to capital management in CIB, we're just very disciplined. There's nothing in particular going into that quarter end. It doesn't relate to a quarter end rapid increase in that coverage at all. And I would say through the quarter, we've been helping facilitate client business in terms of what we've been holding on our own balance sheet is actually being handled extremely conservatively. So I don't think there's anything untoward that other than RWA efficiency. Venkat?

好的，關於 CIB 的資本管理，我們非常自律。沒有什麼特別進入那個季度末。它與該覆蓋率的季度末快速增長完全無關。我想說，整個季度，我們一直在幫助促進客戶業務，因為我們在自己的資產負債表上持有的東西實際上是非常保守地處理的。因此，我認為除了 RWA 效率之外，沒有任何不妥之處。文卡特？

So as far as the leverage finance business goes, we've always run a fairly systematic approach to managing the risk and deleverage finance book. I can't comment on the particular transaction. But let me say generally that, that risk management has 2 parts to it. One part of it is to buy protection against extreme movements in markets. And the most recent time that, that's really protected us quite well was during COVID when you had obviously fairly rapid movements within the month of March 2020 and then back in April. The second way is occasionally for what might be large exposures, trying to see if there's a way, again, to protect ourselves against extreme moves in that. So you should expect us to employ both. The first one systematically, the second one opportunistically to try to manage the risk in our leveraged finance book. But that's something we look at closely over time.

因此，就槓桿金融業務而言，我們一直採用相當系統的方法來管理風險和去槓桿金融業務。我無法對特定交易發表評論。但讓我籠統地說，風險管理有兩個部分。其中之一是購買針對市場極端波動的保護。最近一次真正很好地保護了我們的時間是在 COVID 期間，當時您在 2020 年 3 月和 4 月之間明顯有相當快速的移動。第二種方法是偶爾用於可能的大曝光，嘗試看看是否有辦法再次保護自己免受極端動作的影響。因此，您應該期望我們同時僱用兩者。第一個系統地，第二個機會主義地嘗試管理我們槓桿金融書中的風險。但隨著時間的推移，我們會密切關注這一點。

Just on the loan book, why is it up double digit Q-on-Q, CIB loan book?

就在貸款簿上，為什麼CIB貸款簿上Q-on-Q是兩位數？

CIB loan book, are you looking at the total assets?

CIB貸款書，你看的是總資產嗎？

No, total loans, CIB?

不，總貸款，CIB？

Well, there'll be an RWA impact in the -- sorry, an FX impact in that. So there's some FX inflation. In terms of sort of corporate lending, by the time you sort of strip out the FX, it's not significant particularly. And the increase in the wholesale lending that we've seen has been largely to sort of investment-grade businesses, existing clients, nothing of concern.

好吧，這會產生 RWA 影響 - 抱歉，會有外匯影響。所以會有一些外匯通脹。就企業貸款而言，當你剔除外匯時，它並不特別重要。我們看到的批發貸款的增加主要是針對投資級企業、現有客戶，沒有什麼可擔心的。

Our next question is from Rob Noble from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rob Noble。

Two, please. Can you give us some idea of the composition of your mortgage book split by loan-to-income multiples rather than by loan-to-value? And what proportion of your broker mortgages and your credit card book in the U.K. to lower household income (inaudible), so if we can get an idea of how cost of living impacts the book that way around?

兩個，請。你能告訴我們你的抵押貸款賬簿的構成是按貸款收入倍數而不是按貸款價值來劃分的嗎？以及您在英國的經紀人抵押貸款和信用卡賬簿中有多少比例會降低家庭收入（聽不清），所以如果我們能夠了解生活成本如何影響賬簿呢？

And then secondly, in Barclays U.K., you're still seeing decent growth in noninterest income. So if I see a decline in real household spending, will that number come down or will the inflation and the nominal growth still see growth in noninterest income for U.K. retail business?

其次，在英國巴克萊銀行，非利息收入仍然有可觀的增長。因此，如果我看到實際家庭支出下降，這個數字會下降，還是通脹和名義增長仍然會看到英國零售業務的非利息收入增長？

Okay. Rob, let me take this one by one. So we don't give a loan-to-income split. However, like all banks in the U.K., we have some regulatory limits on higher loan-to-income. So loan to income above 4.5x is significantly reduced. In terms of cards, again, we wouldn't disclose that in particular. What I can tell you is that repayment rate across the risk deciles are all elevated so even in what we would describe as lower deciles of risk, repayment rates are significantly in excess of the monthly contractual payment and significantly in excess of what they were pre-COVID. And of course, balances are also lower. So we are identifying clearly customers who we believe are under more financial pressure using our data. But we believe that their behavior is in managing their risk down. In terms of noninterest income, I mean, that is geared in part to card fees and also interchange fees. So it's linked to cards' usage. So to the extent that customers continue to use their cards, but pay them off, we might expect those trends to continue. If we were to see customer spending for shop, then obviously, that number would go down.

好的。羅伯，讓我一一拿下。所以我們不給貸款收入分配。但是，與英國的所有銀行一樣，我們對更高的貸款收入比有一些監管限制。因此，高於 4.5 倍的貸款收入顯著減少。同樣，在卡片方面，我們不會特別透露這一點。我可以告訴你的是，所有風險十分位數的還款率都提高了，所以即使在我們所說的風險較低的十分位數中，還款率也大大超過了每月的合同付款，也大大超過了他們之前的水平。冠狀病毒病。當然，餘額也較低。因此，我們正在使用我們的數據清楚地識別我們認為面臨更大財務壓力的客戶。但我們相信他們的行為是在管理他們的風險。就非利息收入而言，我的意思是，這部分與卡費和交換費有關。所以它與卡的使用有關。因此，如果客戶繼續使用他們的卡，但還清了錢，我們可能預計這些趨勢會繼續下去。如果我們要看到顧客在商店的消費，那麼顯然，這個數字會下降。

Our next question is from Fahed Kunwar from Redburn.

我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Fahed Kunwar。

Just a couple. One on the hedging and one on your U.K. NIM guidance. Maybe I'll start with NIM guidance. This [opco] has gone up about 200 bps since you gave your (inaudible) NIM guidance. I'm just wondering why you haven't upgraded that guidance given the size of your hedge.

只是一對。一份關於對沖，一份關於您的英國 NIM 指導。也許我會從 NIM 指導開始。自從您給出（聽不清）NIM 指導後，這個 [opco] 已經上漲了大約 200 個基點。我只是想知道，鑑於對沖的規模，你為什麼沒有升級該指導。

And then the second question is just going back to Chris' question on the hedge. Do you see something structurally different in the way consumers save and corporate sales? And the reason I ask that is when rates -- when time deposits rates is this high, time deposits are around 50% of all savings pre-financial crisis. They are now a lot lower than that. At that point, your hedge is probably running more like GBP 100 billion rather than GBP 260 billion at the moment. So is there a reason why the hedge ultimately a level of interest-free balances be structurally higher right now than there were pre-global financial crisis?

然後第二個問題是回到 Chris 關於對沖的問題。您是否發現消費者儲蓄方式和企業銷售方式存在結構性差異？我問這個的原因是利率——當定期存款利率如此之高時，定期存款約佔金融危機前所有儲蓄的 50%。他們現在比這低很多。那時，您的對沖可能運行得更像是 1000 億英鎊，而不是目前的 2600 億英鎊。那麼，為什麼對沖最終的免息餘額水平目前在結構上高於全球金融危機前的水平呢？

Okay, so on the NIM guidance, we have guided towards the top end of the range that we gave you of 2.80% to 2.90%. That reflects 2 things. Firstly, the NIM year-to-date, but obviously, that hedge picked up. And the reason that we have split out the 2 impacts that we've shown you there, so the hedge movement and then the product impact is we said for some time that we expect the product dynamics, as rates started to rise, would become less beneficial for NIM. And we see that coming in 2 ways. It's not just about pass-through of any rate rises from here. It's actually about the dynamic that your second question points to, which is customers moving their savings.

好的，關於 NIM 指導，我們已經指導了我們給你的 2.80% 到 2.90% 的範圍的高端。這反映了兩件事。首先，年初至今的淨息差，但很明顯，這種對沖有所回升。並且我們已經將我們在那裡展示的兩種影響分開的原因，所以我們說過一段時間對沖運動和產品影響，我們預計隨著利率開始上升，產品動態會變得更小對 NIM 有利。我們看到這有兩種方式。這不僅僅是從這里傳遞任何利率上升。這實際上是關於您的第二個問題所指向的動態，即客戶轉移他們的儲蓄。

And secondly, the compression and the competitiveness that we see in the mortgage market. So we feel at the moment like those product dynamics are going to go more heavily than perhaps they have done to date. That's the reason for our caution. And that's the reason that we split out the structural hedge impact so that you can think about those 2 things separately.

其次，我們在抵押貸款市場上看到的壓縮和競爭力。因此，我們目前認為這些產品動態將比他們迄今為止所做的更加重要。這就是我們謹慎的原因。這就是我們將結構性對沖影響分開的原因，以便您可以分別考慮這兩件事。

In terms of your second question as to why things might be structurally different, I think there's 1 macro piece and then there's 1 probably more bank structure piece. The first is that total deposits are higher. We've seen sort of sustained QE. There is a lot of liquidity in the system. And I would also say that banks, retail and corporate banks, in particular, are in a materially different position liquidity-wise versus where they were pre (inaudible). So there, you had loan-to-deposit ratios of well over 100%, that's relying on term deposits as a source of funding.

關於你的第二個問題，為什麼事情可能在結構上有所不同，我認為有 1 個宏觀部分，然後可能還有 1 個銀行結構部分。首先是存款總額較高。我們已經看到了某種持續的量化寬鬆。系統中有大量流動性。我還要說的是，銀行、零售銀行和企業銀行，尤其是在流動性方面與之前（聽不清）相比，處於截然不同的位置。所以在那裡，你的貸存比率遠遠超過 100%，這依賴於定期存款作為資金來源。

I think here, what you're seeing is term deposits as a franchise offering, that's a different mechanic. So we'll see how this pans out. But I would say there are structural differences to the macro and also the way banks are constructed versus sort of 2005, '06, '07 and beyond. Hopefully, that is helpful. Okay.

我認為在這裡，您看到的是作為特許經營產品的定期存款，這是一種不同的機制。因此，我們將看看結果如何。但我想說的是，與 2005 年、06 年、07 年及以後的情況相比，宏觀以及銀行的構建方式存在結構性差異。希望這會有所幫助。好的。

You are the last -- sorry, did you have anything more?

你是最後一個——抱歉，你還有別的嗎？

I just wanted to follow up with one thing. Does that imply you'd let your loan-to-deposit ratio tick up because you wouldn't need time deposits to structurally price a lot lower than your peers because you wouldn't need those time deposits?

我只想跟進一件事。這是否意味著您將讓您的貸存比率上升，因為您不需要定期存款，因為您不需要這些定期存款，因此在結構上價格比同行低很多？

I think most U.K. banks are in a similar position. The loan-to-deposit ratios are lower than they were. So I think it's -- and I wouldn't comment on competitive pricing on this call. I think it's more of a structural piece across the industry.

我認為大多數英國銀行都處於類似的位置。貸存比低於以往。所以我認為這是 - 我不會評論這次電話會議的競爭性定價。我認為這更像是整個行業的結構性部分。

So thank you. Thank you, everybody, Fahed, the last question. Looking forward to seeing some of you next week and many of you in the coming weeks. Thank you.

所以謝謝。謝謝大家，Fahed，最後一個問題。期待在下週見到你們中的一些人，並在未來幾週見到你們中的許多人。謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝大家加入今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路。