美國銀行 (BAC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone, and welcome to today's Bank of America Q1 earnings results. (Operator Instructions). It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Lee McEntire.

大家好，歡迎關註今天的美國銀行第一季財報。（操作員指令）。現在我很高興將會議交給 Lee McEntire。

Good morning. Thank you. Thank you for joining the call to review our first quarter results. Our earnings release documents are available on the investor relations section of the bankofamerica.com website.

早安.謝謝。感謝您參加電話會議來回顧我們的第一季業績。我們的收益發布文件可在 bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Those documents include the earnings presentation that we will make reference to during the call. First, our CEO, Brian Moynihan will make some opening comments before Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, discusses the details of the quarter.

這些文件包括我們將在電話會議中參考的收益報告。首先，我們的執行長 Brian Moynihan 將發表一些開場白，然後我們的財務長 Alastair Borthwick 將討論本季的細節。

Let me just remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

我只想提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述並參考非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受風險和不確定性的影響。

Factors that may causes our actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials, as well as our SEC filings available on the website. Information about non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to US GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials on the website. With that, Brian, let's get started.

可能導致我們的實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素在我們的收益資料以及網站上提供的 SEC 文件中有詳細說明。有關非公認會計準則財務指標的資訊（包括與美國公認會計準則的調節）也可以在我們網站上的收益資料中找到。布萊恩，我們開始吧。

Thank you, Lee, and thank all of you too, and good morning and thank you for joining us.

謝謝你，李，也謝謝大家，早安，謝謝你加入我們。

Given the recent events, we want to do a couple of things with our time today. First, we want to provide a clear picture of how well the fundamentals of the company performed to produce another good quarter of earnings in the first quarter of 2025. So I'm going to talk through a little of those highlights, and I'm going to turn it over to Alastair for details on the quarter and some forward guidance.

鑑於最近發生的事件，我們今天想做幾件事。首先，我們希望清楚了解公司的基本面表現如何，以便在 2025 年第一季再次實現良好的獲利。因此，我將簡要介紹其中的一些亮點，然後我將把主題交給阿拉斯泰爾，讓他介紹本季度的詳細資訊和一些前瞻性指引。

And second, given the market volatility and the concerns of potential changes in the economy and its outlook, at the end of the quarterly presentation, we're going to give you some facts to set the context about the quality of our credit portfolios, our capital and liquidity as we may face periods of economic change, and set that in the context of how we fared prior to past periods of economic stress.

其次，考慮到市場的波動以及對經濟及其前景可能發生變化的擔憂，在季度報告結束時，我們將向您提供一些事實，以說明我們的信貸組合質量、我們的資本和流動性，因為我們可能面臨經濟變化時期，並將其置於我們在過去經濟壓力時期之前的表現背景下。

So let's get going on slide 2 of the discussion. This morning, Bank of America reported $7.4 billion in net income and $0.90 in EPS for the first quarter of 2025. That's a solid start to 2025 and great work by our team. On a year-over-year basis, we grew revenue by 6%.

那麼讓我們開始討論第二張投影片。今天上午，美國銀行公佈2025年第一季淨收入74億美元，每股收益0.90美元。這是 2025 年的一個良好開端，也是我們團隊的偉大工作。與去年同期相比，我們的營收成長了 6%。

We grew net income at 11%. We grew earnings per share 18%, and we delivered more capital back to shareholders and we reduced shares in the aggregate by 3%. We produce an 89 basis points return on assets and a 14% return on tangible common equity in the first quarter. So let me hit on a few highlights that drove that performance.

我們的淨收入成長了11%。我們的每股盈餘成長了 18%，我們向股東返還了更多資本，我們總共減少了 3% 的股份。我們第一季的資產報酬率為 89 個基點，有形普通股權益報酬率為 14%。因此，讓我來談談推動這一表現的幾個亮點。

Net interest income grew 3% year-over-year and is up from quarter 4 to the high end of our guidance range we gave you three months ago. We grew deposits for the 7th straight quarter. They reached nearly $2 trillion at quarter end and have now grown 8% from their mid-2023 low point.

淨利息收入年增 3%，並且比第四季度有所上升，達到了我們三個月前給出的指導範圍的高端。我們的存款連續第七個季度增加。截至本季末，這一數字已達到近 2 兆美元，目前已較 2023 年中期的低點增長了 8%。

We grew commercial loans in every, nearly every line of business. This is a second quarter in a row, they've grown across the board. Holly O’Neill and our consumer team marked the 25th straight quarter of net new checking account growth. We saw annual flows to our consumer investments business of $22 billion over the last 12 months.

我們在幾乎所有業務領域都增加了商業貸款。這是連續第二個季度，他們全面實現成長。Holly O’Neill 和我們的消費者團隊連續第 25 個季度實現了淨新增支票帳戶成長。過去 12 個月，我們的消費者投資業務年流入資金達 220 億美元。

Our wealth management businesses led by Eric and Lindsay and Katy Knox in the Private Bank, together added 7,200 net new households in this quarter and saw net AUM flows of $24 billion in the quarter. Jim DeMare and the team recorded a 12th straight quarter of year-over-year sales and trading revenue growth and achieved a 16% return on allocated capital.

我們的財富管理業務由私人銀行的 Eric 和 Lindsay 以及 Katy Knox 領導，本季共新增 7,200 個淨新家庭，本季淨 AUM 流量達 240 億美元。Jim DeMare 和他的團隊連續 12 個季度實現了銷售額和交易收入同比增長，並實現了 16% 的分配資本回報率。

We generate these results working from a strong balance sheet with over $200 billion in regulatory capital and nearly $1 trillion in liquidity. This allows us to provide strong support and solutions for our clients.

我們憑藉強勁的資產負債表取得了這些成果，擁有超過 2,000 億美元的監管資本和近 1 兆美元的流動性。這使我們能夠為客戶提供強有力的支援和解決方案。

Turn to slide 3 on organic growth. One of the keys to our earnings improvement has been our ability to consistently drive organic growth. Organic growth remains strong across the businesses, as highlighted on slide 3. I won't go through all the statistics and all the points on the page, but as you can see, the momentum has continued.

翻到幻燈片 3，了解有機成長。我們獲利成長的關鍵之一是我們能夠持續推動有機成長。如幻燈片 3 所示，各項業務的有機成長依然強勁。我不會詳細介紹頁面上的所有統計數據和要點，但正如您所見，這種勢頭仍在持續。

I noted that continued growth in that new checking, new households, new companies of commercial banking, and growth in our institutional markets business. Clients continue to see the value in our capabilities and connect to businesses as a company.

我注意到，新的支票帳戶、新的家庭、新的商業銀行公司以及我們的機構市場業務都在持續成長。客戶不斷看到我們能力的價值，並以公司的身份與企業建立聯繫。

Our digital engagement and sales continue to expand across all our businesses. We saw more than 14 billion logins in 2024. Erica is now surpassed 2.7 billion interactions since its inception.

我們的數位參與和銷售在所有業務領域持續擴大。2024 年，登入次數將超過 140 億次。自推出以來，Erica 的互動次數已超過 27 億次。

Our CashPro app for our commercial customers has continued strong adoption and usage rates, as you can see. Transactions sent through Zelle at Bank of America are not only 3x the number of checks written by our Bank of American customers, but also 1.3x the number of checks written, plus the number of cash transactions taking money out of the ATMs.

如您所見，我們為商業客戶提供的 CashPro 應用程式的採用率和使用率持續強勁。透過美國銀行 Zelle 發送的交易不僅是我們美國銀行客戶簽發的支票數量的 3 倍，而且是簽發的支票數量的 1.3 倍，再加上從 ATM 機取錢的現金交易數量。

It's also worth noting that digitally enabled sales in our consumer product business across the board reached 65% of total sales. You can see these trends on digital in the slides we show you each quarter on slides 26, 28, and 30 in the appendix, and we commend those to you.

另外值得注意的是，我們消費品業務的數位化銷售額全面達到總銷售額的65%。您可以在我們每季向您展示的附錄第 26、28 和 30 張投影片中看到這些數位趨勢，我們向您推薦這些趨勢。

As you go to slide 4, we showed you some of the highlights in economic activity. Provide some of the current spending data by our consumers at Bank of America. There's a lot that could potentially change given the uncertainty around the tariffs and other policies in the future path of the economy. And our communications to all of you, this will be done during other stress periods. We want to rely -- relay to you those facts which we think give you some context.

當您翻到幻燈片 4 時，我們向您展示了經濟活動的一些亮點。提供美國銀行消費者的一些當前支出數據。鑑於未來經濟走向的關稅和其他政策的不確定性，很多事情都可能改變。我們與大家的溝通將在其他壓力時期進行。我們希望向您傳達那些我們認為可以提供一些背景資訊的事實。

But before we do that, our research team, like many research teams led by Candace Browning, does not currently believe we'll see a recession in 2025. However, they've lowered their GDP growth rates for 2025 and continue to see no rate cuts during '25, but expect as inflation gets under control, you may see them in the future, i.e. in '26.

但在此之前，我們的研究團隊與坎迪斯·布朗寧領導的許多研究團隊一樣，目前並不認為 2025 年會出現經濟衰退。然而，他們已經降低了2025年的GDP成長率，並且在25年期間繼續不降息，但預計隨著通貨膨脹得到控制，你可能會在未來，即26年看到降息。

But going more to what our customer data shows, it shows that the money moving across all our consumer spending methods, debit/credit cards, ACH, checks written, Zelle, etc. All that aggregate shows it grew about 4.4% pace in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024.

但進一步看我們的客戶數據，它表明資金在我們所有的消費者支出方式、借記卡/信用卡、ACH、簽發的支票、Zelle 等中流動。所有這些總和表明，與 2024 年第一季相比，2025 年第一季的成長速度約為 4.4%。

As you look in the chart and look across it, you can note that consumer spending has been consistently growing year-over-year, but during last year, it actually slowed a bit, especially in the summer and picked back up in the fall. That resulted in the fourth quarter of '24 over the fourth quarter of '23 being about a 4% pace, and that pace has continued. That pace has also continued for the first part of April.

當您查看圖表並縱觀它時，您會注意到消費者支出一直在逐年增長，但去年，它實際上有所放緩，特別是在夏季，並在秋季回升。這導致 24 年第四季的成長速度比 23 年第四季高出約 4%，而這一增速一直持續。四月初，這速度也持續了。

We note that some retailers may say that their sales are slower and others are picking up, and it really reflects a change in consumer spending behavior. But in the aggregate, the consumer keeps pushing money into the economy.

我們注意到，一些零售商可能會說他們的銷售速度變慢了，而其他零售商的銷售速度正在回升，這確實反映了消費者支出行為的變化。但整體而言，消費者不斷向經濟注入資金。

As we look at our business side and what our business clients are telling you, in the current setting, they remain profitable, liquid, and have strong results. They all could look ahead and worry about the same things that you hear reflected in your conversations with them also. So we continue to watch for signs of the environment actually changing, but we thought it would be good to share with you what we're actually seeing on our customer base at this moment.

當我們審視我們的業務方面以及我們的業務客戶告訴您的情況時，在當前環境下，他們仍然盈利、流動性強並且業績強勁。他們全都可以展望未來並擔心你在與他們的談話中聽到的相同的事情。因此，我們將繼續關注環境實際變化的跡象，但我們認為與您分享我們目前在客戶群中實際看到的情況會很好。

So in summary for Bank of America for the first quarter of 2025, I want to thank the team for another strong quarter. We saw good organic client activity. We saw enjoyed good growth in revenue and earnings. We continue to invest into the future growth of our company. We manage the risk well that drove healthy returns for our shareholders, and we increased the capital delivered back to our shareholders. With that, I'm going to turn over to Alastair to talk you through the quarter.

因此，總結美國銀行 2025 年第一季的業績，我要感謝團隊又一個強勁的季度。我們看到了良好的有機客戶活動。我們的營收和獲利均實現了良好的成長。我們將繼續投資於公司的未來發展。我們很好地管理了風險，為股東帶來了豐厚的回報，並增加了返還給股東的資本。接下來，我將請阿拉斯泰爾向大家介紹本季的狀況。

Thank you, Brian. I start on slide 5 of the earnings presentation to provide a little more context on the quarter. And as Brian noted, we generated $7.4 billion in net income, or $0.90 per diluted share this quarter. And that represents good growth over both last quarter and the year earlier period.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我從收益報告的第 5 張投影片開始提供有關本季的更多背景資訊。正如布萊恩所指出的，本季我們實現了 74 億美元的淨收入，即每股 0.90 美元。這表明與上一季和去年同期相比都實現了良好的成長。

On slide 6, we note some of the highlights of the quarter. Revenue of $27.5 billion on an FTE basis grew 6% from the first quarter of '24. Most revenue items showed improvement year-over-year. NII grew 3%. Investment and brokerage fees rose 15% with both assets under management flows and market levels contributing nicely to the growth.

在第 6 張投影片上，我們記錄了本季的一些亮點。以全職當量計算的收入為 275 億美元，較 24 年第一季成長 6%。大多數收入項目較去年同期均有所改善。NII 成長了 3%。投資和經紀費用上漲了 15%，管理資產流量和市場水準都對成長做出了很大貢獻。

This quarter's $5.6 billion in sales and trading revenue grew 9% from the year ago period. Service charges grew 8% with particular strength in our global payment solutions revenue. Card income improved 4%. And other income also improved, driven by gains mostly associated with leveraged finance positions, and these were positions that we disposed of during the quarter.

本季的銷售和交易收入為 56 億美元，比去年同期成長 9%。服務費成長了 8%，其中全球支付解決方案收入尤為強勁。卡片收入增加了4%。其他收入也有所改善，這主要得益於與槓桿融資頭寸相關的收益，而這些頭寸是我們在本季度處置的。

Non-interest expense was $17.8 billion, up from the fourth quarter, driven by seasonally elevated payroll taxes and markets revenue-related costs of processing and incentives. Litigation costs were also higher related to a recent decision in a long running matter.

非利息支出為 178 億美元，高於第四季度，原因是季節性工資稅上漲以及與市場收入相關的處理和激勵成本。與近期對一宗長期案件所作出的判決有關的訴訟費用也較高。

With operating leverage this quarter as revenue grew 300 basis points faster than expense compared to Q124. Provision expense for the quarter was $1.5 billion with asset quality remaining in great shape. Preferred dividends were a $125 million less than the first quarter of '24 as we redeemed some preferred's over the past year.

本季由於營業槓桿作用，營收成長比支出成長快 300 個基點，與 2024 年第一季相比。本季撥備支出為 15 億美元，資產品質維持良好。由於我們在過去一年贖回了一些優先股，優先股股息比 24 年第一季減少了 1.25 億美元。

And we use some of our excess capital to reduce our outstanding shares 4% from the first quarter of last year. All of these things aided in EPS improving 18% year-over-year.

我們利用部分過剩資本將流通股數較去年第一季減少了 4%。所有這些都有助於每股收益同比增長 18%。

Let's move to a discussion of the balance sheet using slide 7, and you can see assets ended the quarter at $3.35 trillion. That's up $88 billion from the fourth quarter, driven by higher levels of client activity in global markets. In addition, loans grew $15 billion in the quarter, supported by a $24 billion increase in deposits. As deposit growth exceeded loan growth, we continue to add to our liquidity.

讓我們使用投影片 7 來討論資產負債表，您可以看到本季末的資產為 3.35 兆美元。這比第四季增加了 880 億美元，這得益於全球市場客戶活動水準的提高。此外，本季貸款增加了 150 億美元，受存款增加 240 億美元的推動。由於存款成長超過貸款成長，我們繼續增加流動性。

Long-term debt increased $21 billion, driven by funding needs to support the growth in client assets. Average global excess liquidity at $942 billion remains strong and up year-over-year.

長期債務增加了 210 億美元，主要是因為支持客戶資產成長的資金需求。全球平均過剩流動性為 9,420 億美元，依然強勁且較去年同期成長。

Shareholders' equity was flat with the fourth quarter around $296 billion. And within that, we returned $6.5 billion of capital back to shareholders with $2 billion in common dividends and the repurchase of $4.5 billion in shares.

股東權益與第四季持平，約 2,960 億美元。其中，我們向股東返還了 65 億美元的資本，包括 20 億美元的普通股股息和 45 億美元的股票回購。

It's worth noting that year-over-year equity is up $2 billion and a $10 billion increase in common equity was partially offset by a 28% reduction in preferred stock. Tangible book value per share of $27.12 rose 9% from the first quarter of '24.

值得注意的是，股權年同比增加了 20 億美元，而普通股股權增加 100 億美元，但優先股減少 28% 卻部分抵銷了這一增幅。每股有形帳面價值為 27.12 美元，較 24 年第一季上漲 9%。

Returning to regulatory capital on slide 8, our CET1 level increased to $201 billion, and the CET1 ratio is 11.8%. This is down 11 basis points and remains well above our 10.7% requirement. You can see in the waterfall, we deployed capital in a number of ways this quarter. In addition to the increased amount of share repurchases, we allocated more capital to our global markets business and grew both consumer and commercial loans.

回到投影片 8 的監管資本，我們的 CET1 水準增加到 2,010 億美元，CET1 比率為 11.8%。這下降了 11 個基點，但仍遠高於我們的 10.7% 的要求。您可以在瀑布圖中看到，本季我們以多種方式部署了資本。除了增加股票回購量外，我們還向全球市場業務分配了更多資本，並增加了消費者和商業貸款。

Within the ending loan growth, it's worth noting we bought an $8 billion portfolio of residential mortgage loans that's both high in quality and allows good potential to expand relationships with customers beyond those mortgage loans, and we expect these loans to add just over $100 million in NII annually.

在期末貸款成長中，值得注意的是，我們購買了價值 80 億美元的住宅抵押貸款組合，這些貸款不僅質量高，而且具有良好的潛力，可以擴大與抵押貸款以外的客戶的關係，我們預計這些貸款每年將增加 1 億美元以上的 NII。

Supplemental leverage ratio was 5.7% versus a minimum requirement of 5%, which leaves capacity for balance sheet growth, and our $468 billion of total loss absorbing capital means our TLAC ratio remains comfortably above our requirements.

補充槓桿率為 5.7%，而最低要求為 5%，這為資產負債表的成長留下了空間，而我們 4,680 億美元的總損失吸收資本意味著我們的 TLAC 比率仍然遠高於我們的要求。

As you see on slide 9, we've now grown deposits for the 7th consecutive quarter on an average basis, and we're near $2 trillion on an ending basis. Typically, we see some downward pressure on deposits as we move from Q4 to Q1 as commercial clients use their cash to pay bonuses and taxes. And this year, we saw commercial deposits more stable as clients remain highly liquid.

正如您在第 9 張投影片上看到的，我們的存款已連續第 7 個季度平均增長，期末存款額接近 2 兆美元。通常，從第四季度到第一季度，我們會看到存款面臨一些下行壓力，因為商業客戶會使用現金來支付獎金和稅金。今年，由於客戶流動性較高，我們看到商業存款更加穩定。

In addition, we remain disciplined on pricing as we pass through short rate declines and saw a 24-basis point decline in rate paid in Global Banking. We saw continued stability around our consumer non-interest bearing balances, and as interest rates moved lower in CDs and preferred deposits on our brokerage platform, we saw 3 basis point decline in rates paid in consumer banking this quarter to 61 basis points.

此外，我們在定價方面保持紀律，因為我們經歷了短期利率下降，而全球銀行業務支付利率下降了 24 個基點。我們的消費者無息餘額持續保持穩定，隨著我們經紀平台上的存單和優先存款的利率下降，本季我們看到消費者銀行業務支付的利率下降了 3 個基點，至 61 個基點。

Overall, rate paid moved from 194 basis points in Q4 to 179 basis points this quarter and we're lower in every business segment.

總體而言，支付利率從第四季的 194 個基點降至本季的 179 個基點，並且我們每個業務部門的支付利率都有所下降。

Let's turn to loans by looking at average balances on slide 10, and you can see loans in Q1 of $1.09 trillion improved 4% year-over-year, driven by 7% commercial loan growth. Excluding commercial real estate, that year-over-year growth was 9%.

讓我們透過查看投影片 10 上的平均餘額來查看貸款，您可以看到第一季的貸款為 1.09 兆美元，年成長 4%，這得益於商業貸款成長 7%。不包括商業房地產，年成長率為 9%。

We noted a modest increase in revolver utilization during the quarter as clients navigate the current environment. Consumer loans grew modestly year-over-year with linked quarter movement reflecting seasonal credit card pay downs.

我們注意到，隨著客戶適應當前環境，本季循環信貸利用率略有增加。消費貸款同比小幅增長，季度環比變動反映了季節性信用卡還款減少。

And the $8 billion of residential loans we purchased this quarter and that I noted earlier, those will come onto the balance sheet, but they came onto the end of the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, so they don't really impact averages this period and will begin to impact them next.

正如我之前提到的，我們本季購買的 80 億美元住宅貸款將進入資產負債表，但它們在本季度末進入了資產負債表的末尾，因此它們實際上不會影響本期的平均水平，但會在下個時期開始產生影響。

Let's turn our focus to NII performance and slide 11, where on a GAAP non-FTE basis, NII and Q1 was $14.4 billion. And on a fully taxable equivalent basis, NII was $14.6 billion, that's up 3% from the first quarter of last year.

讓我們將注意力轉向 NII 表現和第 11 張投影片，其中，按照 GAAP 非 FTE 計算，NII 和 Q1 為 144 億美元。以完全應稅等值計算，NII 為 146 億美元，比去年第一季成長 3%。

We finished at the higher end of our expected range, and NII grew $75 million on a fully taxable equivalent basis over Q4, even as we incurred approximately $250 million headwind from two fewer days of interest accrual. The improvement was driven by global markets activity, as well as deposit favorability and loan growth, and fixed rate asset repricing also benefited NII.

我們最終達到了預期範圍的高端，NII 在第四季度按完全應稅等值基礎增長了 7500 萬美元，儘管我們因利息累計天數減少兩天而遭受了約 2.5 億美元的逆風。這項改善是由全球市場活動、存款優惠和貸款成長推動的，固定利率資產重新定價也使 NII 受益。

With regard to interest rate sensitivity, on a dynamic deposit basis, we provide a 12 month change in NII for an instantaneous shift in the curve. So that means, interest rates would have to move instantaneously another 100 basis points lower than the four cuts already expected and contemplated in the April 10 curve.

關於利率敏感性，在動態存款基礎上，我們提供了 12 個月的 NII 變化，以反映曲線的瞬時變化。這意味著，利率必須立即比 4 月 10 日曲線中已經預期和考慮的四次降息再降低 100 個基點。

On that basis, a 100-basis point decline would decrease NII over the next 12 months by $2.2 billion. And if rates went up 100 basis points again, more than the forward curve, NII would benefit by roughly a $1 billion.

在此基礎上，每下降 100 個基點將導致未來 12 個月的 NII 減少 22 億美元。如果利率再次上漲 100 個基點，超過遠期曲線，NII 將受益約 10 億美元。

With regard to a forward view of NII, given the uncertainty of announced tariffs, we've seen expectations for more cuts in interest rates and more variability now in the market expectations for economic growth. So let us provide a few thoughts for you using slide 12 to illustrate.

對於國家資訊基礎設施的前瞻性展望，鑑於已宣布的關稅的不確定性，我們預計利率將進一步下調，市場對經濟成長的預期也將更加多變。因此，讓我們使用投影片 12 來說明，為您提供一些想法。

In Q4, we provided our expectation that we could exit Q4 of 2025 with NII on a fully taxable equivalent basis in a range of $15.5 billion to 15.7 billion. And that included an acceleration of NII growth in the second half of the year. Our assumptions underlying that NII belief then included an interest rate curve, which anticipated one rate cut in the middle of the year and modest loan and deposit growth.

在第四季度，我們預計到 2025 年第四季結束時，NII 的完全應稅等值範圍將在 155 億美元至 157 億美元之間。其中包括下半年國家資訊基礎設施成長的加速。我們對 NII 信念的假設包括一條利率曲線，預計年中將降息一次，貸款和存款將溫和成長。

And while the interest rate environment has changed a little, our current expectation for the exit rate of NII and Q4 remains unchanged. Using the first quarter '25 as the base, the waterfall gives you some idea of our assumptions to bridge to our Q4 '25 expected exit rate.

儘管利率環境發生了一些變化，但我們目前對NII和第四季退出利率的預期保持不變。以 25 年第一季為基礎，瀑布圖可以讓您了解我們的假設，以便達到 25 年第四季的預期退出率。

First, we pick up two additional days of interest, one in each of the next couple of quarters. Fixed rate asset repricing also benefits our NII, and it takes into account the impact of the current interest rate curve. There are three primary buckets for that benefit: securities, mortgage loans, and cash flow hedges.

首先，我們選取另外兩天的利息，在接下來的幾季中分別選取一天。固定利率資產重新定價也有利於我們的NII，它考慮了當前利率曲線的影響。此福利主要有三種：證券、抵押貸款和現金流避險。

Security pay downs are running about $8 billion to $9 billion a quarter. Mortgage loans are another $4 billion to $5 billion a quarter, and each gains a little more than 200 basis points as they're replaced. Cash flow swap repricing benefits are a little more staggered in their roll down and make up the rest of the benefit here.

每季的安全支出約為 80 億至 90 億美元。每季抵押貸款額為 40 億至 50 億美元，每筆貸款因被替換而增加 200 個基點以上。現金流掉期重新定價收益在其滾動過程中更加交錯，並構成了此處剩餘的收益。

We assume the early April interest rate curve, which reflects four cuts and a couple are later in the year. So that will have some negative impact near term on our expected NII growth, but it improves as the funding costs more fully reflect those cuts.

我們假設四月初的利率曲線反映了四次降息，還有幾次降息發生在今年稍後。因此，這將在短期內對我們預期的NII成長產生一些負面影響，但隨著融資成本更充分反映這些削減，情況會有所改善。

The best proxy for that impact is our asset sensitivity, which again assumes instantaneous rate reductions, even below the rates cuts currently in the curve. We provide our best estimate using the timing of those cuts.

衡量這種影響的最佳指標是我們的資產敏感度，它再次假設利率會立即降低，甚至低於曲線上目前的利率削減幅度。我們根據這些削減的時間來提供最佳估計。

And at the same time, with lower rates, we would expect just a little more loan and deposit activity, and we estimate the NII impact of that growth would offset some of the interest rate impact from lower rates. We already saw modestly better deposit growth in the first quarter than we expected.

同時，由於利率降低，我們預計貸款和存款活動將會略有增加，我們估計這種成長對 NII 的影響將抵消利率降低的部分利率影響。我們已經看到第一季的存款成長略好於我們的預期。

In addition, we believe our liability sensitive global markets business will also likely benefit NII more as we move through the year, and that obviously depends on the way clients choose to trade with us. Bottom line, our fourth quarter exit rate expectation for NII is unchanged at $15.5 billion to $15.7 billion from our previous expectation. And that means we're still expecting strong full year NII improvement this year of 6% to 7%.

此外，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們對債務敏感的全球市場業務也可能使 NII 受益更多，而這顯然取決於客戶選擇與我們交易的方式。總而言之，我們對第四季度 NII 退出率的預期與先前的預期保持不變，為 155 億美元至 157 億美元。這意味著我們仍然預計今年全年 NII 將強勁成長 6% 至 7%。

Okay, let's turn to expense, and we'll use slide 13 for the discussion. We reported a little less than $17.8 billion in expense this quarter, and that included roughly $500 million in seasonal elevation from payroll tax expense and some markets related revenue-related costs. We also had higher litigation expense to $160 million driven by a recent decision in a long running matter.

好的，讓我們轉到費用問題，我們將使用幻燈片 13 進行討論。我們報告本季的支出略低於 178 億美元，其中包括約 5 億美元的季節性工資稅支出增加以及一些與市場相關的收入相關成本。由於最近一項長期案件的判決，我們的訴訟費用也上升至 1.6 億美元。

And remember, as you think about the expense increase from Q4, that quarter included a $300 million release of accruals for the FDIC special assessment.

請記住，當您想到第四季度的費用增加時，該季度包括為 FDIC 特別評估釋放 3 億美元的應計費用。

Expense compared to Q1 '24 is up a little less than 3%, consistent with our full year '25 growth expectations, and the increase reflects costs of higher sales and trading and wealth management fees, and in the investments made to add more sales associates and to support increased technology and marketing costs.

與 24 年第一季相比，支出成長略低於 3%，與我們對 25 年全年的成長預期一致，這一成長反映了更高的銷售和交易費用以及財富管理費用，以及為增加更多銷售人員和支援增加的技術和行銷成本而進行的投資。

Let's move to credit and turn to slide 14, where our asset quality remains sound. Net charge-offs were $1.45 billion, modestly down compared to Q4. This is the fifth consecutive quarter that net charge-offs have hovered around $1.5 billion. The total net charge-off ratio this quarter was 54 basis points flat with Q4. Q1 provision expense was $1.5 billion and matched net charge-offs.

讓我們轉到信貸並翻到第 14 張投影片，我們的資產品質依然良好。淨沖銷額為 14.5 億美元，與第四季相比略有下降。這是連續第五個季度淨沖銷額徘徊在 15 億美元左右。本季總淨沖銷率為54個基點，與第四季持平。第一季撥備支出為 15 億美元，並符合淨沖銷。

Consumer net charge-offs were $1.1 billion consistent with the past few quarters. Now 90% of our consumer net charge-offs are driven by credit card, which highlights the importance of prudence in underwriting that portfolio as we note on slide 22.

消費者淨沖銷額為 11 億美元，與過去幾季一致。現在，我們 90% 的消費者淨沖銷都是由信用卡驅動的，這凸顯了在承保該組合時謹慎的重要性，正如我們在第 22 張幻燈片中提到的那樣。

On the commercial side, we saw losses of $333 million, down modestly from Q4. Near term, we don't expect much change in net charge-offs as you can see improvement in both early and late stage delinquencies from the fourth quarter. That tells us that net charge offs could even be a touch lower next quarter on the consumer side.

在商業方面，我們的虧損為 3.33 億美元，較第四季略有下降。短期內，我們預計淨沖銷額不會發生太大變化，因為從第四季度開始，您可以看到早期和後期拖欠情況都有所改善。這告訴我們，下個季度消費者方面的淨沖銷額甚至可能略低。

On slide 15, in addition to the improvement in consumer delinquency statistics, note the modest changes in other stats for both our consumer and commercial portfolios.

在第 15 張投影片上，除了消費者拖欠統計數據的改善之外，還請注意我們的消費者和商業投資組合的其他統計數據的適度變化。

Okay, let's move to the various lines of business and some brief comments on their results starting on slide 16 with consumer banking. For clients, consumer banking continues to deliver strong organic growth driven by high-touch and high-tech capabilities: convenience and security. For shareholders, through NII in particular, this business is increasingly seeing benefits fall to the bottom line for its high-quality deposit book with only 61 basis point rate paid on nearly $950 billion of deposits.

好的，讓我們轉到各個業務線，並從第 16 張投影片的消費者銀行業務開始對其業績進行一些簡短的評論。對客戶而言，消費銀行業務持續實現強勁的有機成長，這得益於高接觸和高科技能力：便利性和安全性。對於股東而言，特別是透過 NII，該業務的收益正日益下降，因為其高品質存款帳簿的近 9500 億美元存款僅支付了 61 個基點的利率。

In Q1, consumer banking generates $10.5 billion in revenue and $2.5 billion in net income. Revenue grew 3% from the first quarter of '24 as NII growth was complemented by fee improvement in card and service charges. Expenses rose 6% as we continued our business investment and worked through elevated compliance costs.

第一季度，消費者銀行業務創造了 105 億美元的收入和 25 億美元的淨收入。由於 NII 的成長以及卡費和服務費的改善，營收較 2024 年第一季成長了 3%。由於我們繼續進行業務投資並努力解決合規成本上升的問題，費用上漲了 6%。

The organic growth that Brian noted on slide 3 included nearly 250,000 net new checking accounts this quarter, another strong period of card openings, and strong investment account growth. Investment balances grew 9% to $498 billion with full year flows of $22 billion in market improvement.

Brian 在投影片 3 中提到的有機成長包括本季新增近 25 萬個支票帳戶、又一個信用卡開通的強勁時期以及強勁的投資帳戶成長。投資餘額成長 9% 至 4,980 億美元，全年市場改善帶來 220 億美元的流量。

Consumer banking deposits continued to increase from their mid-August low, that was $928 billion and it's now at $972 billion on an ending basis. Looking at averages, deposits grew $5.2 billion from the fourth quarter to $948 billion, and our rate paid declined to 61 basis points.

消費者銀行存款從 8 月中旬的低點 9,280 億美元持續增加，目前已達 9,720 億美元。從平均值來看，存款較第四季增加了 52 億美元，達到 9,480 億美元，而我們的支付利率下降至 61 個基點。

Finally, as you can see in the appendix slide 26, digital adoption and engagement continued to improve and customer experience scores rose to record levels, illustrating the appreciation of enhanced capabilities from these investments.

最後，正如您在附錄投影片 26 中所看到的，數位化採用和參與度持續提高，客戶體驗分數上升到創紀錄的水平，這表明這些投資增強了能力。

Moving to wealth management on slide 17, the business had another strong quarter. With a continued increase in banking product usage from our investing clients, the diversification of the revenue in this business continues to grow.

轉到第 17 張投影片上的財富管理，該業務又經歷了一個強勁的季度。隨著我們的投資客戶對銀行產品的使用不斷增加，該業務的收入多樣化也不斷增長。

The number of clients that have banking products with us continues to grow also and is now approaching 2/3 of the client base. Importantly, about 30% of our revenue remains in net interest income, which complements the fees earned in our advice-driven model, and those have also grown.

在我們這裡購買銀行產品的客戶數量也持續成長，目前已接近客戶群的2/3。重要的是，我們約 30% 的收入仍來自淨利息收入，這補充了我們以諮詢為主導的模式所賺取的費用，而且這些費用也在增長。

That income of a $1 billion rose modestly from the first quarter of '24, as solid revenue growth was mostly offset by higher revenue-related costs and continued investments. In Q1, we reported revenue of $6 billion growing 8% over the prior year, led by 15% growth in asset management fees.

10 億美元的營收較 24 年第一季略有成長，因為穩健的營收成長大部分被更高的收入相關成本和持續的投資所抵消。第一季度，我們的營收為 60 億美元，比上年成長 8%，其中資產管理費成長 15%。

Expense growth of 9% supported both the cost of the increase in fees, as well as investment in technology and the cost of hiring to add experienced advisors to the platform in Merrill and the Private Bank. Average loans were up 6% year-over-year. That was driven by growth in custom lending, securities-based lending, and a pick-up-in mortgage lending.

9% 的支出成長既支持了費用增加的成本，也支持了技術投資以及為美林和私人銀行平台增加經驗豐富的顧問的成本。平均貸款較去年同期成長6%。這是由定制貸款、證券貸款的增長以及抵押貸款的回升所推動的。

Deposits were relatively stable compared to Q4, and our pricing discipline resulted in a 25-basis point decline in rates paid. Both Merrill and the Private Bank continue to see organic growth and produce strong assets under management flows of $79 billion over the past 12 months, which reflects a good mix of new client money as well as existing clients putting money to work.

與第四季相比，存款相對穩定，我們的定價紀律導致支付利率下降了 25 個基點。美林和私人銀行均持續保持有機成長，並在過去 12 個月中產生了 790 億美元的強勁管理資產流量，這反映了新客戶資金和現有客戶資金的良好組合。

We also want to draw your attention to the continued digital momentum that you'll find on slide 28. Our new accounts continue to be predominantly open digitally. On slide 18, you see the Global Banking results and the loan and deposit gathering success of the team.

我們也想提請您注意幻燈片 28 上持續的數位化發展勢頭。我們的新帳戶仍然主要以數位方式開設。在第 18 張投影片上，您可以看到全球銀行業務的表現以及團隊的貸款和存款收集成功。

In the first quarter, Global Banking produced earnings of $1.9 billion, modestly lower than the year ago quarter, as lower credit costs from CRE office losses were more than offset by higher expense of investment in the business. Revenue of $6 billion was flat for the prior year as lower NII was offset by roughly $230 million higher other income related to leverage finance positions as well as higher treasury services revenue.

第一季度，全球銀行業務獲利 19 億美元，略低於去年同期，因為 CRE 辦公室損失導致的信貸成本降低被業務投資費用的增加所抵銷。60 億美元的收入與上年持平，因為較低的 NII 被與槓桿融資頭寸相關的約 2.3 億美元的其他收入增加以及更高的財務服務收入所抵消。

Firm wide, investment banking fees were $1.5 billion in Q1, similar to last year's first quarter. We maintained our number 3 investment banking fee position, and looking forward, we've got a healthy pipeline, and our clients are simply waiting on more clarity on trade policy and the regulatory environment before committing to deals.

整個公司第一季的投資銀行費用為 15 億美元，與去年第一季持平。我們維持了投資銀行費用排名第三的地位，展望未來，我們擁有健康的管道，我們的客戶只是在等待貿易政策和監管環境更加明朗，然後再進行交易。

Expenses increased 6% year-over-year driven by continued investments in technology and operations to support clients.

由於持續投資於技術和營運以支援客戶，支出年增 6%。

On the balance sheet, we saw good client activity. As I noted earlier, we saw good growth in commercial loans, mitigated by decline in CRE loans. And total average Global Banking deposits are up 9% year-over-year, where we saw strong growth across all categories from corporate and commercial clients on the larger end to business banking on the lower end.

在資產負債表上，我們看到了良好的客戶活動。正如我之前提到的，我們看到商業貸款成長良好，但商業房地產貸款下降。全球銀行存款總額平均年增 9%，從規模較大的企業和商業客戶到規模較小的商業銀行，所有類別均呈現強勁成長。

Switching to global markets on slide 19, I'll focus my comments on results excluding DVA as we normally do. As Brian said, we continued our streak of strong revenue and earnings performance, achieved operating leverage, and continued to deliver a good return on capital.

轉到第 19 張投影片上的全球市場，我將像往常一樣專注於不包括 DVA 的結果。正如布萊恩所說，我們繼續保持強勁的收入和獲利表現，實現了經營槓桿，並繼續實現良好的資本回報率。

In Q1, we earned $1.9 billion and that grew 8% year-over-year. Revenue again ex-DVA improved 10% from the first quarter of '24 on good sales and trading results and $230 million of other income on leveraged finance positions similar to Global Banking.

第一季度，我們的獲利為 19 億美元，年增 8%。由於良好的銷售和交易業績，以及與全球銀行業務類似的槓桿融資頭寸帶來的 2.3 億美元其他收入，扣除 DVA 後的收入較 24 年第一季度增長了 10%。

Focused on sales and trading ex-DVA, revenue improved 9% year-over-year to $5.6 billion. Equities led the way this quarter growing 17% year-over-year, while FICC grew 5%. Equities and FICC both benefited from increased client activity among the market volatility. Year-over-year expenses were up 9% on revenue improvement and our continued investments in the business.

專注於銷售和交易（不包括 DVA），營收年增 9% 至 56 億美元。本季度，股票領先，年增 17%，而 FICC 成長 5%。在市場波動中，股票和 FICC 均受益於客戶活動的增加。由於收入增加和我們對業務的持續投資，支出年增 9%。

On slide 20, we show all other with a loss of $4 million in Q1, and the driver of the year-over-year improvement in expense and net income is the absence of the first quarter '24 FDIC special assessment. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 9%, which reflects the discrete impact of share-based compensation awards.

在幻燈片 20 上，我們顯示了所有其他公司在第一季的虧損為 400 萬美元，而支出和淨收入同比改善的驅動力是沒有第一季的 24 年 FDIC 特別評估。我們本季的有效稅率為 9%，這反映了股權激勵獎勵的離散影響。

As a reminder, our tax rate remains well below our typical corporate tax rate, driven by tax credits related to investments in renewable energy and affordable housing. Looking forward, as we said last quarter, we expect the tax rate for the full year 2025 to be in a range of 11% to 13%, excluding unusual items.

提醒一下，我們的稅率仍遠低於典型的企業稅率，這得益於與再生能源和經濟適用房投資相關的稅收抵免。展望未來，正如我們上個季度所說，我們預計 2025 年全年稅率將在 11% 至 13% 之間（不包括非常規項目）。

So let's shift gears to finish and we'll use slide 21. Over the last couple of weeks, investors have signaled concerns for the bank industry over potential changes in the economy, and in light of that, we added the next few slides to illustrate how much stronger our risk profile and balance sheet are today for whatever economic outcome we might face.

那麼讓我們換個方式來結束吧，我們將使用投影片 21。在過去的幾周里，投資者對銀行業可能出現的經濟變化表示擔憂，鑑於此，我們添加了接下來的幾張幻燈片來說明，無論我們可能面臨的經濟結果如何，我們的風險狀況和資產負債表今天有多麼強大。

And let me offer three important takeaways as you see the next three slides. First, we have a vastly improved risk profile from previous periods of economic dislocation. Second, at the same time, we strengthen the balance sheet by adding billions of capital and liquidity. Third, following 15 years of operating under responsible growth, our portfolio and our balance sheet are well prepared to support our clients in various economic outcomes.

在接下來的三張投影片中，我將提供三個重要的重點。首先，與以往的經濟混亂時期相比，我們的風險狀況已大大改善。第二，同時，我們透過增加數十億美元的資本和流動性來加強資產負債表。第三，經過15年的負責任的成長運營，我們的投資組合和資產負債表已做好充分準備，可以在各種經濟形勢下為客戶提供支援。

Now the left side of slide 21 highlights the shift in the loan portfolio to a more balanced mix of commercial and consumer, as well as a more geographically diverse mix. Our high-quality commercial loan portfolio at this point is more than 90% investment grade or collateralized, and it also includes a more diversified geographic mix as you see at the bottom of the page.

現在，第 21 張投影片的左側突顯了貸款組合的轉變，即商業和消費者貸款組合更加均衡，以及地理分佈更加多樣化。目前，在我們的高品質商業貸款組合中，投資級或抵押貸款超過 90%，並且還包括更多樣化的地理組合，如您在頁面底部所見。

At the top right, you see the improved mix toward a more secured collateralized balance of our consumer book. The bottom right illustrates the nine-quarter loss rate and how our nine quarter -- so this isn't annualized, this is nine quarter stress loss ratios fared in the Fed models and CCAR exams, and we compare quite favorably to peers in each of the past 12 years of exams.

在右上角，您可以看到改進後的組合，以實現我們消費者帳簿的更安全的抵押餘額。右下角顯示了九個季度的損失率以及我們的九個季度——這不是年化的，這是美聯儲模型和 CCAR 考試中九個季度的壓力損失率，與過去 12 年考試中的同行相比，我們表現相當不錯。

CCAR provides investors an annual independent view to analyze adverse impacts in the most severe circumstances. So just to recap, if you went to the latest results from 2024, those scenarios include a drop of 6% to 8% in real GDP from peak to trough. It includes a rapid increase in unemployment up to 10%, and significant changes in inflation.

CCAR 每年向投資者提供獨立觀點，以分析最嚴重情況下的不利影響。所以，總結一下，如果你查看 2024 年的最新結果，這些情境包括實際 GDP 從高峰到谷底下降 6% 至 8%。其中包括失業率迅速上升至10%，通貨膨脹也有顯著變化。

It also assumes housing prices falling 35%. It assumes short rates basically go to zero and the 10 year goes to 1%. And it assumes bond spreads widened dramatically, commercial real estate prices declined 40%, and equity prices would drop by 50%, together with significant weakness in international economies.

它也假設房價下跌35%。它假設短期利率基本上降至零，而 10 年期利率降至 1%。報告假設債券利差大幅擴大，商業房地產價格下跌 40%，股票價格下跌 50%，同時國際經濟也出現明顯疲軟。

It also assumes the portfolio size doesn't change from any management actions that we might take in that environment, and we obviously do quite well in that CCAR stressed environment.

它還假設投資組合規模不會因我們在該環境下採取的任何管理行動而改變，而且我們顯然在 CCAR 壓力環境下表現良好。

With that, I'm going to stop. I'll turn it back to Brian for a couple of thoughts to wrap up.

就這樣，我就要停下來了。我會把話題轉回給 Brian，讓他總結幾點想法。

Thanks, Alastair, and I'm on slide 22. On that slide, we highlight some of the key balance sheet or asset quality statistics that the company has faced in important periods of economic disruption, and we compare those to the current status.

謝謝，阿拉斯泰爾，我現在看的是第 22 張幻燈片。在該投影片上，我們重點介紹了公司在重要經濟動盪時期面臨的一些關鍵資產負債表或資產品質統計數據，並將其與當前狀況進行了比較。

On the left side of the columns, you can see that the fourth quarter of 2009 illustrates what the company looked like after a couple years in the financial crisis and after the acquisition of Merrill. The second column obviously is fourth quarter '19, which represents what we look like heading into the pandemic. And now we show you what the company looks like today.

在長條圖的左側，您可以看到該公司在 2009 年第四季度經歷了幾年的金融危機和收購美林之後的狀況。第二列顯然是 2019 年第四季度，這代表了我們進入疫情的狀況。現在我們向你展示公司現在的面貌。

We have a multifarious loan book across types of clients, geographies, and various asset classes that holds us in good stead. In total, our consumer loans are down more than $200 billion as home equity loans are down more than $125 billion and credit card loans, unsecured credit card loans are down by more than $60 billion.

我們擁有涵蓋各類客戶、地理和各種資產類別的多種貸款，這使我們處於有利地位。總體而言，我們的消費貸款減少了 2000 多億美元，房屋淨值貸款減少了 1250 多億美元，信用卡貸款、無擔保信用卡貸款減少了 600 多億美元。

This reflected a concentrated effort on us to focus on our relationship loans rather than loans as a product and deepen those relationships with the highest quality prime credit customers.

這反映了我們專注於關係貸款而非產品貸款，並深化與最優質優質信用客戶的關係。

Our wealth-managed business has doubled in size in those consumer categories, and the relative exposure to those borrowers in those loans is very secure are highly collateralized and the strength of the borrowers underneath them.

我們的財富管理業務在這些消費者類別中的規模擴大了一倍，並且這些貸款對借款人的相對敞口非常安全，這些貸款的抵押品非常多，而且借款人的實力也很強。

In the commercial area, in addition to the more geographic dispersion that Alastair discussed, you can also see that the construction lending and land development exposures have been greatly reduced. At the same time, our equity is $93 billion and higher.

在商業領域，除了阿拉斯泰爾討論的地理分散程度更高之外，還可以看到建築貸款和土地開發風險已大大降低。同時，我們的股本達到 930 億美元甚至更高。

At Bank of America, we remain obdurate about our strength of our balance sheet. We are well reserved for our portfolio and risk profile. On a weighted basis, including our model reserves, our imprecision reserves, and our judgmental reserves, it positions us at approximately 6% unemployment rate. The current reserve allocation on card is 7.4%, for example. It gets to charge our freight of around 4.4%.

在美國銀行，我們始終堅信我們的資產負債表實力雄厚。我們對我們的投資組合和風險狀況保持了良好的保留態度。以加權計算，包括我們的模型儲備、不精確儲備和判斷儲備，我們的失業率約為 6%。例如，目前卡上的儲備分配為 7.4%。這會向我們收取約 4.4% 的運費。

When you go to slide 31, you can see some more statistics about our portfolios. Let's take a deeper look at those in just a couple points. On slide 23, you can see that in regards to mortgage between the first and second lien products today, we have a total of about $260 billion.

當您翻到第 31 張投影片時，您可以看到有關我們投資組合的更多統計數據。讓我們從幾個方面來更深入地了解這些問題。在第 23 張投影片上，您可以看到，就目前第一和第二留置權產品之間的抵押貸款而言，我們的總額約為 2600 億美元。

On average, our borrowers have FICO scores above 770, and average debt to income ratios at 35% for the residential mortgage product and 39% for the home equity product. Loan to values also leave us in strong equity positions being below 50%. For comparative purposes, we entered the financial crisis in early 2007, and you can see the exposures were more than $400 billion with average FICO scores were 50 points to 60 points lower and higher LTVs.

平均而言，我們的借款人的 FICO 分數高於 770，住宅抵押貸款產品的平均債務收入比為 35%，房屋淨值產品的平均債務收入比為 39%。貸款價值比也使我們的股權狀況保持強勁，低於 50%。為了進行比較，我們在 2007 年初陷入了金融危機，你可以看到風險敞口超過 4000 億美元，平均 FICO 分數低 50 分到 60 分，LTV 較高。

So $400 billion more imbalances, lower credit scores and higher LTVs. So we've significantly repositioned those portfolios across the last several years.

因此，不平衡現象將增加 4000 億美元，信用評分將下降，貸款價值比將上升。因此，我們在過去幾年中對這些投資組合進行了重大調整。

Moving through the other consumer loan types, you can see the high quality of the collateralized securities-based asset lending and audit portfolios. And on consumer credit card, we have about $100 billion in outstandings with the current net charge-off ratio, as I said, about 4%.

透過其他消費貸款類型，您可以看到基於抵押證券的資產借貸和審計組合的高品質。就消費者信用卡而言，我們有大約 1000 億美元的未償還債務，目前的淨沖銷率約為 4%。

The FICO score of our average borrower is 777. And thinking about exposure bar is less than a current FICO score of 660, we have about 12% exposure. Card is really our only consumer unsecured exposure in the portfolio.

我們的平均借款人的 FICO 分數為 777。考慮到風險暴露標準低於目前 FICO 分數 660，我們的風險暴露約為 12%。信用卡實際上是我們投資組合中唯一的無擔保消費者投資。

As comparison, heading into the financial crisis in fourth quarter 07, we had $150 billion in credit card balances, about 1.5% -- of 1.5x our current balance of card loans. The average FICO score was 50 FICO points lower, and the unused lines of those books were much higher. This strong position allows us to better serve our clients in the times of stress, which may come ahead, according to our projections.

相較之下，在 2007 年第四季金融危機爆發之前，我們的信用卡餘額為 1,500 億美元，約佔 1.5%——是我們目前信用卡貸款餘額的 1.5 倍。平均 FICO 分數低了 50 FICO 點，而這些帳簿的未使用額度卻高得多。根據我們的預測，這種強勢地位使我們能夠在未來可能出現的壓力時期更好地為客戶服務。

Bank of America stands ready to support them as never before, whether it's a commercial client which needs help to borrow and navigate the changing economy around the world, whether it's a commercial client needs to reposition their debt structure or move money to help participate in the economy, we'll be there for them.

美國銀行隨時準備為他們提供前所未有的支持，無論是需要幫助借貸和應對全球經濟變化的商業客戶，還是需要重新調整債務結構或轉移資金以幫助參與經濟的商業客戶，我們都會為他們提供幫助。

If it's a wealthy client that needs advice and counsel on rocky periods or loan to get them through, we're there for them. If consumers need access to cash or borrowing, we're also there for them. Bottom line, operating the company in this way allows us to stand tall in times of stress, and these slides highlight the importance of having done that across the last many years and the relative strength of our company compared to others.

如果富有的客戶需要有關困難時期的建議和諮詢或貸款來幫助他們渡過難關，我們會為他們提供幫助。如果消費者需要現金或借款，我們也會為他們提供協助。總而言之，以這種方式經營公司可以讓我們在壓力時期屹立不倒，這些幻燈片強調了過去多年這樣做的重要性以及我們公司相對於其他公司的相對實力。

Thank you. And now we'll go to questions and answers. Q&A.

謝謝。現在我們進入問答環節。問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning, Brian. Good morning, Alastair. So I appreciate you guys taking my questions. Wanted to start off with one on capital management. Certainly encouraging to see the acceleration, the buyback towards that $4.5 billion level.

嗨，早上好，布萊恩。早安，阿拉斯泰爾。所以我感謝你們回答我的問題。想從資本管理開始。看到回購額加速達到 45 億美元的水平確實令人鼓舞。

At the same time, you're still running with more than 100 basis points of cushion. I was hoping you could speak to, given the uncertainty in the environment, what level of CET1 you're currently comfortable running with, in terms of the ratio? And whether this $4.5 billion buyback level is something that we expect to be sustained over the near to medium term.

同時，您仍然擁有超過 100 個基點的緩衝。我希望您能談談，考慮到環境的不確定性，就比例而言，您目前適合採用什麼等級的 CET1？我們是否預期 45 億美元的回購水準將在短期至中期內持續下去。

Yeah, so Steve. If you look at what we did this quarter, just take a look at slide 8 and the earnings materials. Now, here's a quarter where we ended up earning $7 billion. And you know it allowed us to step up the share buyback from $3.5 billion up to $4.5 billion in an environment where we also invested more RWAs in global markets and into higher loan balances.

是的，史蒂夫。如果您看看我們本季所做的事情，只需看一下投影片 8 和收益資料。現在，我們這個季度的獲利達到了 70 億美元。您知道，這使我們能夠將股票回購金額從 35 億美元提高到 45 億美元，同時我們也在全球市場和更高的貸款餘額中投資了更多的風險加權資產。

So not only do we grow the loans, I call them organically, but we also purchased a loan portfolio this quarter. So We're sort of growing into our capital at this point by investing in the business. And we still have some flexibility to increase the share buyback. So I don't think we have an ultimate destination in mind right now on CET1.

因此，我們不僅增加了貸款（我稱之為有機增加），而且本季我們還購買了貸款組合。因此，我們現在透過投資業務來增加我們的資本。我們仍然有一定的靈活性來增加股票回購。所以我認為我們現在還沒有想到 CET1 的最終目標。

Recognizing that we don't have full clarity yet on all the aspects of capital, and we'd like to see that before we determine it. But obviously, as you point out, we've got a lot of flexibility. And we're more focused on just make sure that the CET1s in a good place and then grow into the capital base that we have, and that's probably the best way to articulate it.

我們認識到，我們尚未完全清楚資本的各個方面，我們希望在確定之前先了解這一點。但顯然，正如您所指出的，我們具有很大的靈活性。我們更注重的是確保 CET1 處於良好狀態，然後發展成為我們擁有的資本基礎，這可能是表達這一點的最佳方式。

That's great. And for my follow up, just on the outlook for loan and deposit growth, you delivered better growth across both KPIs relative to peers. I was hoping you could speak to what drove the strength in 1Q beyond the portfolio purchase you alluded to earlier.

那太棒了。就我的後續問題而言，僅就貸款和存款成長前景而言，與同行相比，你們在兩個 KPI 上都實現了更好的成長。我希望您能談談除了您之前提到的投資組合購買之外，是什麼推動了第一季的強勁成長。

And just bigger picture, the outlook for commercial loan growth as tariffs and policy uncertainty have certainly raised concerns regarding weakening loan demand, weaker CapEx, what have you?

就更大範圍而言，由於關稅和政策不確定性，商業貸款成長前景無疑引發了人們對貸款需求減弱、資本支出減弱的擔憂，您有何看法？

So Steven, just on the -- I'll give you the broader thing and Alastair can talk about some of the specifics. You remember, over the last several years, we've been investing in basically building up more commercial bankers across the world, including buildouts in Switzerland and in the UK and things like that. We built more commercial loan officers in the United States and our global commercial banking business under lending a team.

所以史蒂文，我只是給你一個更廣泛的話題，而阿拉斯泰爾可以談談一些具體內容。您記得，過去幾年來，我們一直致力於在世界各地建立更多的商業銀行，包括在瑞士和英國等地的建設。我們在美國組建了更多的商業貸款人員，並在我們的全球商業銀行業務下設立了貸款團隊。

We've grown more private bankers and more in the wealth management team under Merrill, what we call Wealth Management Bankers to support those teams who've grown them. So those investments are sort of, kicking in on that sort of 20-mile march away, just more of them, more of them, more of them that just keeps driving it through. So that's why you're seeing us sort of do better in the competition just in like quarter loan growth.

我們在美林旗下的財富管理團隊中培養了更多的私人銀行家和更多的財富管理銀行家，我們稱之為財富管理銀行家，以支持那些培養他們的團隊。因此，這些投資就像是在 20 英里旅程中發揮作用，只是更多的投資，更多的投資，更多的投資，只是不斷推動它前進。所以這就是為什麼你會看到我們在季度貸款成長等競爭中表現更好。

When we look forward, with all the things you described: the potential change in the economy, business views, people draw in anticipation of tougher economic times, we'll see all that play out. But the real way, the real reason that we're driving our capabilities is more capacity and then making that, honestly, also making that capacity more efficient using some artificial intelligence machine learning to direct that calling capacity and that's allowed us to take what we call new logos in the commercial business.

當我們展望未來時，透過您所描述的所有事情：經濟的潛在變化、商業觀點、人們對更艱難的經濟時期的預期，我們將看到所有這一切的發生。但真正的方式，我們推動我們能力的真正原因是更多的容量，然後老實說，也使用一些人工智慧機器學習來指導呼叫容量，從而使容量更加高效，這使我們能夠在商業業務中採用所謂的新標誌。

Adding new companies for the first time and you're seeing that having started a couple years ago is now maturing in the balances have kicked in, and outstandings, which it takes a while to bring those clients in, get them underwritten. They renew once every couple years, get in the flow, etc. So those investments are paying off and we expect that to continue across the board.

首次新增公司，您會看到幾年前開始的業務現在已經成熟，餘額已經開始，未償還金額也已經開始，需要一段時間才能吸引這些客戶並讓他們承保。他們每隔幾年就會更新一次，融入潮流，等等。因此，這些投資正在獲得回報，我們預計這種趨勢將全面持續下去。

That's great color. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

顏色真棒。非常感謝您回答我的問題。

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

約翰·麥克唐納（John McDonald），Truist Securities。

Thank you. Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for the longer term perspective on the credit. I just wanted to follow up that on terms of the loan loss reserve, what were the dynamics of the setting of the reserve this quarter in terms of any change in weighting of scenarios for the tariffs, and was it set with a 3/31 view or early April view?

謝謝。大家好，早安。感謝您對信貸的長期看法。我只是想跟進一下，關於貸款損失準備金，就關稅情景權重的任何變化而言，本季度準備金的設定動態是怎樣的，它是按照 3 月 31 日的觀點設定的，還是按照 4 月初的觀點設定的？

So John, we said it all the way through the close, but normally we're focused on the data that we have on 3/31. And then we have the ability to layer on top after we model our reserves. We have the ability to layer on imprecision and judgmental on top of that. So we did this quarter the same way that we've done in other quarters.

所以約翰，我們一直到收盤時都在說這個，但通常我們關注的是 3 月 31 日的數據。然後，我們在對儲備進行建模之後，就有能力在其上進行分層。我們有能力在此基礎上增加不精確性和判斷性。因此，我們本季的做法與其他季度的做法相同。

We went through and assessed using the blue-chip economic indicators, so the consensus view of all of the various macro assumptions. That's sometimes different than others who use their own proprietary. We feel like the right answer is to use the blue-chip consensus. It's more independent.

我們透過藍籌經濟指標進行了研究和評估，從而對各種宏觀假設達成了一致的看法。這有時與其他使用自己專有技術的人不同。我們認為正確的答案是使用藍籌共識。它更加獨立。

And then we've got that as our baseline, and we've got four other scenarios around that. We've got upside and three downsides. And so in this particular quarter, already the blue-chip economic indicators have moved down in terms of economic growth. So GDP lower in the baseline and a little higher on inflation. So that's reflected in the baseline before we even get to the weightings.

然後我們以此為基準，並圍繞此制定另外四種方案。我們有優點，但也有三個缺點。因此，在這個特定季度，藍籌經濟指標在經濟成長方面已經出現下滑。因此，基線 GDP 較低，通貨膨脹率略高。因此，在我們得到權重之前，這已經反映在基線中。

And then weightings this quarter, those are unchanged for us. And by the time we then take that modeled answer and then layer on top of it the judgmental piece all the way through the close. We're reserved closer to an unemployment rate that's right around 6% in '25-'26, just to give you some idea. So that should give you an idea. We feel like we're pretty well reserved at this point.

本季的權重對我們來說沒有變化。然後，我們採用這個模擬答案，並在其上疊加判斷部分直至結束。我們預計 25-26 年失業率將接近 6% 左右，這只是給你一些概念。這應該能給你一個想法。我們感覺目前我們已經相當保守了。

Hey John, one of the things, we've been looking a lot of sort of what happened because obviously [Cecil] came in, the pandemic hit and sort of the build-up and things like that. But, as Alastair said, one of the hard concepts is the baseline that we use continues has moved negative over the last couple of quarters obviously due to the outlook here the last couple of months, and we'll continue to reflect that.

嘿，約翰，其中一件事，我們一直在關注發生的事情，顯然是因為 [Cecil] 來了，還有疫情的爆發、各種積累等等。但是，正如阿拉斯泰爾所說，一個難以理解的概念是，我們使用的基線在過去幾個季度中持續出現負增長，這顯然是由於過去幾個月的前景所致，我們將繼續反映這一點。

But we have a strong reserved position with that when you add it all up at that to 6% implied level, so we feel good.

但是，當你將所有這些加起來達到 6% 的隱含水平時，我們就會有一個強大的保留立場，所以我們感覺很好。

Thanks, that's helpful. And then on expenses, you previously were looking for the full year expenses this year to be up 2% to 3% over last year. How are you feeling about that? Is that still kind of your current thinking?

謝謝，這很有幫助。然後關於支出，您之前預計今年全年支出將比去年增長 2% 至 3%。你對此有何感想？這仍然是您現在的想法嗎？

Yeah, that's still our current thinking, John. I mean, I think we said 2% to 3% for the full year. We feel like we're on course there. It might be towards the higher end, but we just got to see what happens with fees over the course of this year.

是的，這仍然是我們目前的想法，約翰。我的意思是，我認為我們說的是全年增長率為 2% 到 3%。我們感覺我們正在朝著這個目標前進。它可能處於較高水平，但我們只需要看看今年的費用變化。

Got it thanks.

明白了，謝謝。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，Seaport Global Securities。

Great, good morning. Maybe Alastair, you're able to absorb four cuts this year in your assumptions, and maintain the 4Q and NII target, which is a good thing. As we think about the full impact of the four cuts felt in '26 and potentially a few more, does that make it a little more difficult to reach that intermediate term target?

太好了，早安。也許阿拉斯泰爾，你能夠在你的假設中吸收今年的四次降息，並維持第四季度和國家資訊基礎設施的目標，這是一件好事。當我們考慮到 1926 年四次降息以及可能會有更多降息所帶來的全部影響時，這是否會使實現中期目標變得更加困難？

NIM of 1.3% by the end of next year or the fact that you're getting them out of the way this year is helpful? Just trying to think through that intermediate term target. Thanks.

到明年年底，淨利息收益率 (NIM) 達到 1.3% 或今年就解決這一問題是否有幫助？只是想思考那個中期目標。謝謝。

So Jim, first of all that targets 2.3%, not 1.3%. Yeah, you're letting us off the hook here that easy. We're aiming at 2.3% and we still feel like over the course of the next couple of years, that's the right answer. For this year's NII, those rate cuts, we got four of them in there. But a couple of them are later in the year. So it doesn't have a tremendous impact on 2025. It'll be a little bit of a headwind in '26.

所以吉姆，首先目標是 2.3%，而不是 1.3%。是啊，你就這麼輕易地放過我們了。我們的目標是 2.3%，我們仍然覺得在接下來的幾年裡，這是正確的答案。對於今年的全國存款準備率 (NII)，我們進行了四次降息。但其中有幾個是在今年晚些時候。所以它不會對2025年產生巨大的影響。26 年將會面臨一些阻力。

If that in fact is the case -- but again, we got a lot of time between then and there. I feel like last year at one point, we thought there'd be one rate cut in the curve, then there were six. Then we were back to one. So we've got to see how the interest rate curve develops, but our management team's focus and goal has not changed.

如果事實確實如此——但是，從那時到那時我們還有很多時間。我覺得去年某個時候，我們以為曲線會降息一次，結果卻降息了六次。然後我們又回到了原點。因此，我們必須觀察利率曲線如何發展，但我們管理團隊的重點和目標並沒有改變。

Yeah, and Jim. One thing on the rate sensitivities, remember those are instantaneous drops. And it takes time for the fix -- our debt portfolio, our debt issuance portfolio, some of it is floating, some of it is fixed, it prices over time. So if they come more over time, you can't quite equate it to the instantaneous drop type of things if you got my point because you have other dynamics which help.

是的，還有吉姆。關於利率敏感性的一件事，請記住，這些都是瞬時下降。而且修復需要時間——我們的債務組合、債務發行組合，有些是浮動的，有些是固定的，其價格會隨著時間的推移而變化。因此，如果它們隨著時間的推移而增加，你就不能將其等同於瞬間下降的情況，如果你明白我的意思，因為你還有其他有幫助的動力。

So remember that long term most economists believe that with the inflation coming back towards the target rate, you'd see the Fed funds rate ultimately get down to 3%, 3.5% type of levels, which is more of a traditional, normal, it's hard to say in the world we're in now, level. So if that happens, we feel very comfortable if you look back historically, the earnings power of this company and the NIM percentages you've talked about with the Fed funds rate in that range of pushing up 2.3% and beyond is strong.

因此請記住，從長遠來看，大多數經濟學家認為，隨著通膨回升至目標利率，聯邦基金利率最終將降至 3%、3.5% 左右的水平，這更像是一種傳統的、正常的水平，在我們現在所處的世界中很難說。因此，如果發生這種情況，我們感到非常放心，如果回顧歷史，這家公司的盈利能力和您談到的淨息差百分比，以及聯邦基金利率在 2.3% 及以上的範圍內上漲，都是強勁的。

Okay, yeah. It makes sense. And just as a follow up on, just sort of the near term April, we saw a big jump in volatility. Just any -- what are you seeing across your business segments? Whether you've seen deposit flight to safety flows or/and the volatility and trading has that been good volatility bad volatility? Just trying to get a little window into the near term. Thanks.

好的，是的。這是有道理的。作為後續行動，在四月的近期，我們看到波動性大幅上升。只是任何—您在您的業務部門看到了什麼？您是否看過存款流向安全流或/和波動性和交易，這是好的波動還是壞的波動？只是想對近期的情況有個大致了解。謝謝。

Well, we've seen significant pickups in customer activity in global markets. So the environment there remains constructive. We have seen, I'd say continued -- sort of similar to what we would expect. We haven't seen anything like, if you were to go back a couple of years around regional banking crisis, that nothing like that. It's been pretty regular way, I would say, and we just keep driving the deposits day to day.

嗯，我們看到全球市場的客戶活動顯著增加。因此那裡的環境仍然具有建設性。我們已經看到，我想說的是繼續——有點類似於我們所期望的。我們還沒有看到類似的事情，如果你回顧一下幾年前的區域銀行業危機，你會發現沒有類似的事情發生。我想說，這是相當常規的方式，我們只是每天不斷地增加存款。

And Jimmy, I mentioned earlier but you didn't specifically ask about, but what's interesting is you watch that consumer money flow spending. If you take a four-week average, including up to the first 12 days of April, it's running at 5%, so it hasn't fallen off. You got to be careful just using two weeks because of where Easter fell this year versus last year and all that stuff.

吉米，我之前提到過，但你沒有具體詢問，但有趣的是，你觀察了消費者的資金流動支出。若取四周平均值，包括截至 4 月前 12 天的數據，其成長率為 5%，因此並未下降。你必須小心使用兩週的時間，因為今年的復活節與去年的復活節有所不同，等等。

But basically, it's maintaining that pace. So the consumers are still solidly in the game. What they'll do next, different question, but right now they're still solidly even to the first part of April.

但基本上，它保持著這個速度。因此消費者仍然堅定地參與其中。他們下一步會做什麼，這是另一個問題，但目前他們仍穩紮穩打地走到了四月初。

Okay, great, thank you.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore。

Hi, thanks very much. So another good trading quarter for you guys. But I'm curious, when you benchmark yourself, say to the top tiers, there's probably about a $3 billion difference to the biggest platforms. I'm just curious if you see those big gaps to peers, are those gaps that you're choosing to pursue? You mentioned you have the SLR room, you have a great equity franchise. I'm just curious on your approach towards -- is it a capital thing, is it a risk thing? I'm just curious on the high level thoughts. Thanks.

你好，非常感謝。所以對你們來說又是一個好的交易季度。但我很好奇，當你以自己為基準時，比如說與頂級平台相比，與最大的平台之間可能有大約 30 億美元的差距。我只是好奇，如果您看到與同齡人之間的巨大差距，這些差距是您選擇追求的東西嗎？您提到您有 SLR 房間，您擁有很棒的股權特許經營權。我只是好奇您的處理方式—這是資本問題，還是風險問題？我只是對高層的想法感到好奇。謝謝。

I think you -- starting a number of years ago, this has been a relentless climb up the ladder and not overshooting and having to cut off. So that three years, a year-over-year growth, consecutive quarters that other people don't do because there's more volatility. So Jim and the team are basically building up.

我認為你——從幾年前開始，這是一個不懈地向上攀登的過程，不會超越，也不會停下來。因此，三年來，實現了同比增長，連續幾個季度的增長是其他人做不到的，因為波動性更大。因此，吉姆和他的團隊正在逐步壯大。

So what have we done? More capital, probably over 5- or 6 years, $300 billion more balance sheet capacity even over a lot of this quarter was $60-ish billion. So we keep adding capabilities capacity, but remember -- and we've a relentless March, 4/3 in this categories. 3/2 in this category keep moving up and just keep pursuing it.

那我們做了什麼？更多的資本，可能在 5 年或 6 年內，甚至在本季度的大部分時間裡，資產負債表容量將增加 3000 億美元，達到 600 億美元左右。因此，我們不斷增加能力容量，但請記住 - 我們有一個不懈的三月，在這個類別中佔 4/3。此類別中的 3/2 繼續前進並繼續追求。

In some areas like, physical commodities, that's not a business we're heavily into and we made a decision about that a number of years ago versus core fixed income where we're stronger and we gain, we've been gaining shares. So the idea is to keep gaining share, but at a pace, for lack of a better term, in the business which has volatility and it pays that, capitalizes that volume of revenue into the business and then grows from there as opposed to grabs it and gives it back and grabs it and gives it back. It's just the way that Jim and the team have driven it and they've done a frankly, a very good job doing it.

在某些領域，例如實體商品，我們並不是很深入的業務，幾年前我們就做出了這個決定，而核心固定收益業務在我們實力更強、盈利能力更強、市場份額也一直在增長。因此，我們的想法是繼續獲得市場份額，但是要以一定的速度，由於缺乏更好的術語，在具有波動性的業務中，它要付出代價，將一定數量的收入資本化到業務中，然後從那裡增長，而不是抓住它然後返還，抓住它然後返還。這只是吉姆和他的團隊推動的方式，坦白說，他們做得非常好。

And so expect us to keep gaining share. We'll keep closing the gaps that you mentioned. It's getting now closer to the third place GAAP. But in a given quarter other people may shoot up a little higher because of this element or that element, but our job is to just do be consistent across all the elements that we participate in and keep driving it, and there's plenty of opportunity ahead and it's not for lack of capital or lack of risk taking.

因此，我們期望繼續獲得市場份額。我們將繼續彌補您提到的差距。現在它已經越來越接近第三名的 GAAP 了。但在特定季度，其他人可能會因為這個或那個因素而上漲一點，但我們的工作就是在我們參與的所有因素上保持一致並繼續推動它，未來有很多機會，這並不是因為缺乏資本或缺乏風險承擔。

They're taking more risk and the other major thing is the investment. And systems here is a competitive moat frankly, that the amount of work you have to do to get this all to work right on a worldwide basis, there's a very few of us can do it.

他們承擔了更多風險，另一個重要的事情就是投資。坦白說，這裡的系統是一個競爭壁壘，為了讓這一切在全球範圍內正常運轉，你必須做大量的工作，但只有極少數人能夠做到。

I very much appreciate that. And similar to what John said, we definitely like to drill down on the extra detail around the credit book and history guide. I'm curious on the -- right now when you talk about the reserving and you took now to give us the further drill down on the exposures or closer towards our higher likelihood of recession and/or have you gone through and assessed the loan book from exposures to this shifting tariffs and tax environment and that's bringing the -- I hope that the question is clear. I'm just, I'm more talking about the why now and what's driving the increased attention?

我非常感激。與約翰所說的類似，我們絕對喜歡深入了解信用簿和歷史指南的額外細節。我很好奇——現在當您談到準備金時，您是否進一步深入研究了風險敞口或更接近我們陷入衰退的可能性，以及/或者您是否已經評估了貸款賬簿對不斷變化的關稅和稅收環境的風險敞口，這帶來了——我希望這個問題很清楚。我只是，我現在更多地談論的是為什麼以及是什麼引起了越來越多的關注？

Well, the why now, why we put the extra disclosure is just to remind people, we actually -- if you look back when we did a lot of this around '19 and '20 because of the same discussion about where we're heading in their sessions, consumer could spend on their money. The consumers quite turned out not to be true, frankly, in the '22-'23 time frame. The consumer -- on a continuous basis, in a trading book stress test, but on a quarterly basis across the things.

好吧，為什麼現在，為什麼我們要進行額外的披露只是為了提醒人們，我們實際上 - 如果你回顧一下我們在 19 年和 20 年左右做了很多這樣的事情，因為在他們的會議上我們討論了我們前進的方向，消費者可以花他們的錢。坦白說，在 22-23 年間，消費者的表現並不忠誠。消費者－在交易帳簿壓力測試中持續進行，但每季都會進行測試。

If you think about all the different ways the economy can get knocked into recession or potential recession or lower growth, remember the whole world is predicting a lot lower growth this year than last year. That’s not new. That’s just all the (inaudible). Growth is slowing down from a 3% growth rate in the third quarter of last year to 1-ish type of numbers. They’re a little bit less than one this year in the blue-chip in the first quarter. So over two quarters pretty good drop. So that’s all embedded in it.

如果你考慮一下經濟可能陷入衰退、潛在衰退或成長放緩的所有不同方式，請記住，全世界都預測今年的經濟成長將比去年低得多。這並不是什麼新鮮事。這就是（聽不清楚）。成長率從去年第三季的 3% 放緩至 1 左右。今年第一季度，藍籌股的數字略低於 1。因此，兩季以來的下降幅度相當可觀。這一切都包含在其中。

But while we're trying to give you reassurances or a look at it in depth is because it's a source of strength for us and we've been working at that hard to ensure that as we go through a crisis and we've had a couple bumps in the road as we go through a more traditional economic downturn, we will be in great shape and we test that every quarter in lots of different ways.

但是，當我們試圖向您保證或深入了解它時，是因為它是我們的力量源泉，我們一直在努力確保當我們經歷危機時，當我們經歷更傳統的經濟衰退時，我們會遇到一些障礙，我們將處於良好的狀態，我們每個季度都會以許多不同的方式對其進行測試。

So, but if you sit there and say what happens if tariffs happen, this happens, or this happens, it's going to result in either GDP negative growth, higher inflation, which may then cause GDP negative growth, higher unemployment. All those are the factors we actually test in granular detail. So it's not necessarily how you get there. It's the outcome of getting there.

所以，但是如果你坐在那裡說如果徵收關稅會發生什麼，發生這種情況，或者發生這種情況，它將導致 GDP 負增長，通貨膨脹上升，這可能會導致 GDP 負增長，失業率上升。所有這些都是我們實際詳細測試的因素。所以，重要的不是你如何到達那裡。這是到達那裡的結果。

The GDP fall off, housing price fall off, unemployment levels, that's what we do, and we want to make sure we're positioned at the end of the day that we could serve our clients well and not have to be pulling back and so that's where the underwriting discipline holds you in good stead if in fact we do enter that in the future.

GDP 下降、房價下降、失業率下降，這就是我們所做的事情，我們希望確保我們最終能夠為客戶提供良好的服務，而不必退縮，因此，如果我們將來確實進入這個領域，承保紀律將使您處於有利地位。

Mike Mayo.

麥克·梅奧。

Hey, Brian. I'm hearing this call and this almost sounds like it could've been the fourth quarter earnings call. Loans are growing, deposits are growing, credit's fine, consumer spending is slowing but still growing. I'm just trying to reconcile the $7 trillion of lost stock market wealth with comments from you sounds like you, you're not blinking. And by the way, I don't think you're alone. It's just teams more upbeat relative to what the stock market's done. And I'm trying to reconcile those two things.

嘿，布萊恩。我聽到這個電話，這聽起來幾乎就像是第四季的收益電話會議。貸款正在成長，存款正在成長，信貸良好，消費者支出正在放緩但仍在成長。我只是想將股市財富損失的 7 兆美元與你的評論聯繫起來，聽起來你並沒有眨眼。順便說一句，我認為你並不孤單。這只是相對於股市的表現而言，球隊更加樂觀而已。我正在嘗試調和這兩件事。

So, what am I missing or what are you seeing? Or at what point do you say, hey, wait a minute, this is really might be a bigger problem.

那麼，我遺漏了什麼或您看到了什麼？或者什麼時候你會說，嘿，等一下，這真的可能是一個更大的問題。

I think Mike, you're laying out the difference between is and could. What we're trying to do is make sure people see what is going on today and like you said for the -- and that's why you actually split the two pieces of the presentation for the first quarter. Everything you said is true: loans, deposits, credits good charge offs went down, delinquencies are down at the end of the quarter versus fourth quarter.

我認為邁克，你正在闡明 is 和 could 之間的區別。我們要做的是確保人們了解今天發生的事情，就像你說的那樣——這就是為什麼你實際上將第一季的演示分為兩部分。您所說的一切都是對的：貸款、存款、信用沖銷額下降，本季末的拖欠率與第四季相比有所下降。

You're looking at all that and saying, okay, that's what we did. Then if we look forward, our economists, your economists, I'm sure are all predicting a slowdown in growth, and the core question will be when all these different policies and stuff come together in response to the policies by other trading partners to the tariff policies by the policies on deregulation working for that, the tax bill, which comes out.

你看著這一切，然後說，好吧，這就是我們所做的。那麼，如果我們展望未來，我相信我們的經濟學家、你們的經濟學家都預測經濟成長將會放緩，核心問題是，當所有這些不同的政策和東西結合起來，以響應其他貿易夥伴的政策、關稅政策、放鬆管制政策以及出台的稅收法案時。

All that will mix together and come to an outcome, and our job is to have position the company well and take advantage of the opportunities. Well, that outcome hasn't happened yet and when it comes to being in a good position, and that's why the latter part of this was geared to showing you the strength of the credit portfolios and other things.

所有這些因素都會結合在一起並產生結果，而我們的工作就是讓公司處於良好的位置並抓住機會。嗯，這個結果還沒有發生，當談到處於有利地位時，這就是為什麼後半部分旨在向你展示信貸組合的實力和其他東西。

At the end of the day you and I know that the real risk in a balance sheet of a bank is going to be its credit posture heading into a general recession. Our colleagues have raised their probability reception, recession, lowered their growth as have the bluechips. But even if you look at the people who redid it, it's a very slight recession, and you know we should farewell on that.

歸根究底，你我都知道，銀行資產負債表中的真正風險在於其在陷入普遍衰退時的信貸狀況。我們的同事提高了衰退的機率接收，並降低了對藍籌股的成長機率。但即使你看看那些重做它的人，這也是一個非常輕微的衰退，你知道我們應該告別它。

But we just don't -- nobody has a perfect crystal ball, whatever the right word is to the future, but you know we're positioning our comp for everything, but we don't want people to lose sight of the strong performance of this company and our team in the first quarter of 2025.

但我們不會——沒有人擁有完美的水晶球，無論對未來的正確預測是什麼，但你知道我們正在為一切做好我們的準備，但我們不希望人們忽視這家公司和我們團隊在 2025 年第一季的強勁表現。

Let me take the other side of that. I thought the idea was to make it easier to do business with deregulation, and you can see the nominations, people, and then you get the policies. If that narrative plays out, how do you think it'll be easier to do business at Bank of America and with your customers as it relates to deregulation?

讓我談談另一方面。我認為這個想法是透過放鬆管制使做生意變得更容易，你可以看到提名、人員，然後你就會看到政策。如果這種情況真的發生，您認為在放鬆管制的情況下，美國銀行和您的客戶之間的業務往來會變得怎樣變得更加容易？

I think the new administration has made it clear that they're going to reduce the regulatory burden along two dimensions. Dimension one is I think less regulations, new and getting other regulations off the book and refine them based on the view that the [Penthom's] going too far. I'll talk about banking regulations, but it's actually more broad across.

我認為新政府已經明確表示他們將從兩個方面減輕監管負擔。我認為第一個維度是減少法規，制定新法規，取消其他法規，並根據「Penthom 做得太過分」的觀點對其進行完善。我將談論銀行監管，但實際上它的範圍更為廣泛。

The second way is to actually reduce the size of the federal administration that brings the regulatory inquiries and things like that. So we're seeing some relief. We look forward to seeing more relief as the nominees get in a position and the policy outlines can be then drilled throughout the teams, but it's critically important that we get this rebalance.

第二種方法是實際減少負責監管調查等事宜的聯邦政府的規模。因此我們看到了一些緩解。我們期待看到隨著提名人就位以及政策大綱在整個團隊中得到貫徹，我們將獲得更大的緩解，但實現這種重新平衡至關重要。

We run and run a company that is going to be well capitalized, great liquidity, fair to consumers, etc, Mike, but sometimes, the regulation gets in the way of that and way overshot the issues and we look forward to having it come back in the middle and, just take all the debate about treasury trading.

麥克，我們經營的公司資本充足、流動性強、對消費者公平，但有時，監管會阻礙這一點，並超越問題，我們希望它能回到中間，並接受有關國庫交易的所有爭論。

The SLR requires us to hold capital at the level against riskless assets and treasuries and cash that doesn't make a lot of sense and we've been saying that for a long time and we expect now, we've heard it said that there will be relief in that. That will help us provide liquidity to our clients.

SLR 要求我們將資本保持在對抗無風險資產、國債和現金的水平，這沒有多大意義，我們已經說了很長時間了，現在我們預計，我們聽到有人說這方面會有所緩解。這將有助於我們為客戶提供流動性。

Government guaranteed securities and government issued securities is $1.2 trillion on our balance sheet right now, Mike. So you think about that in terms of it and put capitalizing that under the SLR, 5% or whatever it is, and that's a big number. And none of that has a risk attached to as you well know. And so that's one thing.

麥克，目前我們的資產負債表上顯示的政府擔保證券和政府發行證券總額為 1.2 兆美元。因此，您可以從這個角度考慮這個問題，並將其資本化為 SLR，5% 或其他數字，這是一個很大的數字。正如您所知，這些都沒有任何風險。這是一回事。

The second thing, we saw again this quarter on some of the expenses is the operational cost to deal with, the regulatory push that happened that we tried to talk the last set of administrators into, you're going way too far and you've gone past the substance and to form, is a cost that we're going to see come out of the system and ought to be reinvested in helping our customers and clients grow.

第二件事，我們在本季度再次看到一些費用是需要處理的營運成本，我們試圖說服上一批管理人員接受監管壓力，但你們做得太過分了，已經超越了實質和形式，這是我們將會看到的從系統中產生的成本，應該重新投資於幫助我們的客戶和客戶成長。

And short follow up, the $1.2 trillion in cash in governments, where would that be kind of in a more ideal world and the operating costs? How much that could potentially be saved even if you want to give some investment to the industry, just order magnitude?

簡短的後續問題是，政府的 1.2 兆美元現金，在更理想的世界中，這些現金和營運成本會花在哪裡？即使你想給這個行業一些投資，僅僅數量級，那麼可能節省多少錢？

Tremendously different by hundreds of billions of dollars. But I'd say a few $100 billion of its pure size that we all added to meet a bunch of metrics that I'm not sure as important as people may think they are. And that's proved out. So, think of that as our long term debt posture being up higher, etc.

相差數千億美元，巨大差異。但我想說，我們增加的幾千億美元的純規模是為了滿足一系列指標，我不確定這些指標是否像人們想像的那麼重要。事實證明了這一點。因此，可以認為我們的長期債務狀況正在上升，等等。

So our job is to -- we've got $2 trillion deposits, $1 trillion of loans. We need to extract the value of that deposit. Our size ought to be more generated by that question unless about, well, we want you to just add stuff because we're not sure that the treasury -- that the market for repo of asset-backed securities will be available in a time of treasury or even treasuries and so therefore you have to -- those are the things I think which change.

所以我們的工作是——我們有 2 兆美元的存款，1 兆美元的貸款。我們需要提取該存款的價值。我們的規模應該更多地由這個問題決定，除非，好吧，我們希望你只是添加一些東西，因為我們不確定國庫券——資產支持證券回購市場是否會在國庫券或甚至國債時期可用，因此你必須——我認為這些是會發生變化的事情。

So you probably see it most in our long-term debt footprint coming down relative size and our sheer size coming down, I don't know, $100 billion to $150 billion maybe, Alastair should probably be a good guess if we've grown really just fluffed off the balance sheet to make metrics that are not that important to look good.

因此，您可能會看到我們的長期債務足跡相對規模下降，我們的絕對規模下降，我不知道，可能是 1000 億美元到 1500 億美元，阿拉斯泰爾可能是一個很好的猜測，如果我們的增長真的只是從資產負債表中浮現出來，以使那些不那麼重要的指標看起來不錯。

All right thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Understanding that there's a lot of potential moving pieces in the regulatory agenda or deregulatory agenda, I did notice that at the end of the year, your G SIB score would indicate that if you didn't take down your exposure, this year you would have a higher G SIB surcharge by January 1, 2027 from what I understand, all else being equal.

我了解到監管議程或放鬆管制議程中有很多潛在的變動因素，我確實注意到，在年底，您的 G SIB 分數將表明，如果您不降低風險敞口，那麼據我了解，在其他條件相同的情況下，到 2027 年 1 月 1 日，您將需要支付更高的 G SIB 附加費。

I'm just wondering, Brian, Alastair if your plans are to reduce this exposure or the message is, look, our ROTCE is 13.9% and improving and so, crossing is not going to be a big deal because of the PPNR and return power that we see going forward.

我只是想知道，布萊恩、阿拉斯泰爾，你們的計劃是否是減少這種風險，或者訊息是，看，我們的 ROTCE 是 13.9%，並且正在改善，所以，由於我們看到的 PPNR 和回報能力，跨越不會是什麼大問題。

So I think that relates back to, I think it was Glenn's question about the markets business, I remember who asked it. At the end of the day, most of what drives that change is the market's business. There are other factors obviously Erika, but the big factor is the market's business.

所以我認為這與…有關，我認為這是格倫關於市場業務的問題，我記得是誰問的。歸根結底，推動這項變化的主要因素是市場業務。顯然還有其他因素，埃里卡，但最大的因素是市場的業務。

And if they're out there getting market share and getting a return on that, we'll keep growing through that. That's in fact why we have gone up, the chunk we've gone up.

如果他們能夠獲得市場份額並獲得回報，我們就會繼續保持成長。這實際上就是我們上漲的原因，我們上漲的部分。

Now go back to sort of Mike's point and frankly I think imbed in your question. Think about the facts that the G SIB calculations at the time they were set, I think it was off at '12 data or something like that, 2012 data.

現在回到麥克的觀點，坦白說，我認為這已經融入你的問題了。想想當時設定的 G SIB 計算結果，我認為它與 2012 年數據或類似的 2012 年數據有偏差。

The idea, and it's right in the rules was that they should be indexed so that our relative position, Bank of America relative position to the industry and the economy ought to -- we ought to be able to grow. We've had a nominal economy growth of 30% in the last -- since the pandemic to now just sheer size growth of which there is no adjustment in the G SIB calculations for that. It was in the statute. It hasn't been implemented.

這個想法，而且規則中也說得對，就是它們應該被索引，這樣我們的相對地位，美國銀行相對於產業和經濟的相對地位就應該——我們應該能夠成長。自疫情爆發到現在，我們的名目經濟成長率為 30%，這僅僅是規模成長，而 G SIB 計算中並未對此進行調整。這是在法規中。它還沒有被實施。

You've heard in some of the discussion by the Fed that they would index. A lot of that -- one of the proposals was from sort of now forward, which then skips all the growth. Our belief is it should be indexed more fairly as designed the statute because our relative size hasn't grown, even though our balance sheet has grown to the economy or to the industry.

您可能聽說過聯準會的一些討論，稱他們將採用指數化。其中很多——其中一項提議是從現在開始的，它跳過了所有的增長。我們認為，它應該按照法規設計得更公平，因為儘管我們的資產負債表相對於經濟或產業而言已經成長，但我們的相對規模並沒有成長。

So why are we more G SIB sized than we were before? So I think if the market business can get the returns and grow and do it in a way that sticks to the ribs, Jim and the team will grow, and that will probably push our G SIB. But back up and think about the reality of it, you're now looking at Bank of America and our peers circa 2014, '15 off of 2012 date if I remember the exact date.

那麼，為什麼我們的 G SIB 規模比以前更大呢？因此我認為，如果市場業務能夠獲得回報並實現成長，並以一種堅持不懈的方式進行，那麼 Jim 和團隊就會成長，這可能會推動我們的 G SIB。但回過頭來想想現實情況，你現在看到的是美國銀行和我們的同行在 2014 年、2015 年左右的表現，如果我沒記錯的話，這是 2012 年的日期。

And think about the sheer size of the US economy, probably 50%, 60% bigger and we have not indexed anything for this and therefore we're shrinking our banking size relative to the economy for the same -- without kind of a logic behind it and that's what we've been pushing about.

想想美國經濟的規模，可能大 50% 到 60%，而我們還沒有為此編制任何指數，因此我們正在縮小相對於經濟的銀行規模——這背後沒有任何邏輯，而這正是我們一直在推動的。

Got it. And I'll follow up offline. I just wanted to squeeze my second question in. Follow up on the net interest income, outlook for the fourth quarter. You helped us with the exit points on both balance sheet and net interest margin in the last call.

知道了。我會進行線下跟進。我只是想提出我的第二個問題。專注於淨利息收入，展望第四季。您在上次通話中幫助我們解決了資產負債表和淨利差的退出點。

If I recall, it was flat to fourth quarter levels in 2024 and I think a 205 to 10 net interest margin. Are those points still valid in terms of what's underneath the surface of that 4Q '25 exit NII? Obviously, the balance sheet is bigger because of market in the first quarter.

如果我沒記錯的話，它與 2024 年第四季的水平持平，我認為淨息差為 205 比 10。從 2025 年第四季退出 NII 的背後情況來看，這些觀點是否仍然有效？顯然，由於第一季的市場，資產負債表規模較大。

Yeah, I think you've captured it, Erika. You're exactly right, and we're comfortable with that.

是的，我認為你已經抓住了它，Erika。你說得完全正確，我們對此感到滿意。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the concept of growing into the capital, slide 8 here. And I guess I want to horn in on the RWA growth and just think about that going forward. Obviously, there's some increase in 1Q from seasonal stuff in markets but maybe won't be as much going forward and the longer it might pick up a little bit.

早安.我只是想跟進一下發展成為首都的概念，這裡是第 8 張投影片。我想談談 RWA 的成長，並考慮未來的發展。顯然，由於市場季節性因素，第一季有所成長，但未來可能不會有太大成長，而且時間越長，可能會有所回升。

But what I'm getting at is, it's not that clear to me that you're going to use all the capital that you're generating and the excess from organic growth. It does feel like the buybacks at some point will be a pretty robust pay. So anyway, long story, long question just to summarize, like talk about the capital consumption in a little more detail from the organic growth and the interplay of buyback. Thanks.

但我的意思是，我並不清楚你是否將使用你產生的所有資本以及有機成長帶來的剩餘資本。感覺回購在某個時候將會帶來相當豐厚的回報。所以無論如何，長話短說，長問題，只是為了總結一下，例如從有機成長和回購的相互作用更詳細地談論資本消耗。謝謝。

So Matt, I think you sort of answered your own question in the question because you could see that, $16 billion RWA increase in a quarter where markets tends to be bigger just because of the nature of it, yeah, so that's on $1.7 trillion so less than a percent growth in RWA and the earnings growth through.

因此，馬特，我認為您在這個問題中已經回答了您自己的問題，因為您可以看到，在一個季度中，風險加權資產 (RWA) 增加了 160 億美元，而由於其性質，市場往往會變得更大，是的，這是在 1.7 萬億美元的基礎上，風險加權資產的增長不到百分之一，而盈利增長不到百分之一。

So we will always deploy capital into the businesses at whatever they need to grow the businesses with the right returns. That's a given. In fact, the efficiency of our RWA deployment is something we work at all the time, and that's why you can see the growth in size relative to RWA, and we think we have room to go on this.

因此，我們將始終向企業投入所需的一切資本，以實現企業的成長和合理的回報。這是理所當然的。事實上，我們一直在努力提高 RWA 部署的效率，這就是為什麼你可以看到 RWA 規模的成長，我們認為我們還有繼續前進的空間。

It's always less than the overall growth in the loans and deposits. So yeah, we'll continue to work that efficiencies, but you've got exactly right. The capital goes deployed to support the business. It's going at a much -- that the business' demands for that are much lower rate than the capital accumulation, and then we turn around and say, what do we do with it? Well, you have a common dividend, obviously, and then the rest goes to buy backs and you saw us step that up this quarter, as Alastair said earlier to $4.5 billion.

它總是低於貸款和存款的整體增長。是的，我們會繼續努力提高效率，但您說得完全正確。資金被部署來支持業務。企業對此的需求遠低於資本累積的速​​度，然後我們轉過身說，我們該如何處理它？嗯，顯然你有普通股股息，其餘部分用於回購，你看到我們在本季度將這一數字提高了，正如阿拉斯泰爾之前所說的那樣，達到了 45 億美元。

That's helpful. And then just separately that all other fee line on a consolid basis was pretty close to breakeven versus normally a loss because of some of your tax credits. Is that just some lumpy items like loan sale gains or marks given some of the things that we saw in the marketplace this quarter or want to?

這很有幫助。然後單獨計算，所有其他費用在合併基礎上都非常接近收支平衡，而不是像通常那樣由於部分稅收抵免而出現虧損。考慮到我們本季在市場上看到的或想要看到的一些情況，這是否只是一些不重要的項目，例如貸款銷售收益或標記？

Yeah. No, you got that mostly right. The other income line this quarter, as in every quarter, it's generally most impacted by what's going on with -- often it depends on the timing of the completion of really long dated projects. It could be solar. It could be wind farms, could be housing.

是的。不，你基本上說對了。與每個季度一樣，本季的另一條收入線通常受當前情況的影響最大——通常取決於長期專案的完成時間。它可能是太陽能的。它可能是風力發電場，也可能是住宅。

So in any given quarter, there can be some timing there where we catch up in the later quarters. But in this particular quarter, in addition to that, we've got -- the leverage finance positions that we refer to, we'd written those down in prior quarters. So when we sold them this period for a gain, that accounts for a reasonable amount of the delta.

因此，在任何一個季度，我們都可以在後面的季度趕上來。但在這個特定季度，除此之外，我們還獲得了——我們所提到的槓桿融資頭寸，我們已經在前幾個季度將其記了下來。因此，當我們在此期間出售它們以獲取收益時，這佔了合理的增量金額。

And then the only other thing you just got to remember is, we had that legal settlement, pretty long dated one, got that cleaned up, a little bit of [Visa B] cleaned up this quarter. So there's some one-timers that offset that, but it's probably worth about $0.03 this quarter just to give you some idea.

然後你唯一要記住的事情是，我們已經達成了那個法律和解，那個相當長期的和解，已經把它清理乾淨了，本季度對 [Visa B] 做了一點清理。因此，有一些一次性措施可以抵消這一點，但本季的價值可能約為 0.03 美元，只是為了給你一些概念。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Hi, good morning. Great quarter. I did have two quick questions. One was on -- Brian, earlier in the call we talked about how some of the commercial loan growth was being generated by the investments you've been making, in particular, one of the areas international.

嗨，早安。很棒的一個季度。我確實有兩個簡單的問題。一個是——布萊恩，在之前的電話會議中，我們談到了部分商業貸款的成長是如何由你所做的投資產生的，特別是在國際領域之一。

So I just wanted to -- with this tariff overhang that we have going forward, how do you think about that investment spend in the international markets? Do you step it up? Do you pull it back? Is it an opportunity? Is it a threat or risk? Just wanted to understand that angle from you. Thank you.

所以我只是想——考慮到我們未來面臨的關稅過剩問題，您如何看待在國際市場上的投資支出？你會加緊努力嗎？你把它拉回來嗎？這是一個機會嗎？這是一個威脅還是風險？只是想從你的角度來了解。謝謝。

So I think a lot of that's to be played out that we would continue to invest where we see the opportunities and where we see the opportunity outside the United States is with the teams that we have that have been in these countries -- Japan for since the day after World War 2 ended; India, for 65-plus years; Australia, for 60-plus years; the European countries, for many years. We're deeply embedded in those countries, and the idea was, coming from pure multinational largest companies in those national champions and take them around the world and taking companies from outside that particular country into those countries.

所以我認為，我們將繼續在我們看到機會的地方進行投資，而我們看到美國以外機會的地方就是我們一直在這些國家工作的團隊——自二戰結束後的第二天起我們就一直在日本工作；印度，65年以上；澳大利亞，60多年；歐洲國家多年來。我們深深紮根於這些國家，我們的想法是，從純粹的跨國最大公司開始，將這些國家的冠軍企業帶到世界各地，並將該國以外的公司帶到這些國家。

We will then -- we're now moving down a notch in size. Strong, family-owned businesses in the production supply chains for business, we understand. I don't think that'll change dramatically. The goods and products start to be produced and so. We'll continue to work with -- we're watching our clients and helping them try to figure out what this all means to them in terms of supply chain alignment and things like that.

然後我們就會——我們現在的規模正在縮小。我們了解，強大的家族企業在生產供應鏈中扮演著重要的角色。我不認為這種情況會發生巨大變化。貨物和產品開始生產等等。我們將繼續與客戶合作——我們正在關注我們的客戶，並幫助他們弄清楚這一切對他們在供應鏈協調等方面意味著什麼。

So I think it's -- yeah, it may ebb and flow, but remember when you then take the other side of where the investment is in the United States, that's where it's just a larger factor in terms of the overall commercial business, meaning small business with the largest small business lender in the United States by quite a bit. And those loans are growing, so having small business meaning FDIC loans under a million which we both have in our consumer business and our business banking area. And then middle market largest -- one of the largest lenders in the United States and then large corporates.

所以我認為——是的，它可能會有起伏，但請記住，當你站在美國投資的另一邊時，它對整個商業業務的影響就更大了，這意味著小企業對美國最大的小企業貸款機構的影響相當大。而且這些貸款不斷增長，因此，小型企業貸款意味著 FDIC 貸款金額低於 100 萬美元，我們在消費者業務和商業銀行領域都有此類貸款。然後是中型市場最大的——美國最大的貸款機構之一，然後是大型企業。

So because of the diversity of our company, we'll see what might not be as possible in a place due to the dynamics you're describing, maybe be more possible in a place like Georgia. So it will keep playing this out, but the goal was to have relationship manager investments on a relentless pace to keep adding our team that's dedicated towards hand in client relationships and then frankly, making more efficient by -- to make them more and more efficient and also where to call, who to call on on the prospect list we have. And we're seeing that take hold, and that's where you're seeing these logos just build up and new client acquisition.

因此，由於我們公司的多樣性，我們會發現，由於您所描述的動態，在某個地方可能無法實現的事情，在喬治亞州這樣的地方也許更有可能實現。因此，它會繼續發揮作用，但目標是讓關係經理不斷投資，以不斷增加我們致力於建立客戶關係的團隊，然後坦率地說，通過提高效率 - 使他們越來越有效率，以及在哪裡打電話，在我們擁有的潛在客戶名單上聯繫誰。我們看到這種趨勢正在生根發芽，你會看到這些標誌不斷湧現，新客戶也不斷出現。

Okay, thank you. And that was my second question on the small business side. Can you help us understand what you're seeing today from small business? I know you are, as you mentioned, one of the largest small business lender, and you've had significant loan growth over the past several years in small business way ahead of peers. And so you're the closest to these folks in our world, and I would love to understand how are they thinking about investing in this environment with the tariff overhang. Thanks.

好的，謝謝。這是我關於小企業方面的第二個問題。您能幫助我們了解一下目前小型企業的情況嗎？我知道，正如你所說，你們是最大的小企業貸款機構之一，而且在過去幾年裡，你們的小企業貸款增長顯著，遠遠領先於同行。所以，你是世界上最接近這些人的人，我很想了解他們如何考慮在關稅過剩的環境下進行投資。謝謝。

Betsy, they're just trying to figure it out. And so they see the policies along [multi-dimensions], deregulations, the tariff policy, immigration policies, et cetera. And they look at all of it and say in tax policy. And so they're trying to figure out how it affects their business.

貝琪，他們只是想弄清楚。因此他們看到了多方面的政策，包括放鬆管制、關稅政策、移民政策等等。他們審視這一切，並制定稅收政策。因此他們試圖弄清楚這對他們的業務有何影響。

At the end of the day, today, they're producing the goods, and the goods are going out in the stream and being sold. But they're trying to figure out how that -- we're interesting is for a while it was inflation, obviously, coming through last year when that was a discussion. Then interesting flipped to labor again, which was a little bit unique in that they're trying to make sure they get the qualified employees they need to operate.

今天，他們生產貨物，然後貨物流出並出售。但他們正試圖弄清楚這是怎麼回事——我們感興趣的是，有一段時間，通貨膨脹顯然是去年討論時出現的。然後有趣的是再次轉向勞動力，這有點獨特，因為他們試圖確保他們獲得營運所需的合格員工。

But if you look about it, they're basically sanguine on the current environment, but they're worried about how this will affect their businesses and where they should invest. And I think that's slowing down some of their decision path right now, because they're trying to figure out if my goods and services will I be able to pass the price? Do I need to change my business plans in terms of growth? Should I buy that piece of equipment? That's why line usage has been relatively muted still and we continue to try to grow it.

但如果你仔細觀察，你會發現他們對當前環境基本上持樂觀態度，但他們擔心這將如何影響他們的業務以及他們應該在哪裡投資。我認為這會減慢他們目前的一些決策速度，因為他們正在試圖弄清楚我的商品和服務是否能夠承受這個價格？我是否需要根據成長情況改變我的商業計劃？我該買那件設備嗎？這就是為什麼線路使用率仍然相對低迷，而我們仍在繼續努力提高線路使用率。

Now there's areas which in our small business growth, which are sort of recession-resistant, which is like in healthcare. We have a big business lending to docs and veterinarians and other people involved in practice. And those things tend to have less impact by the issues at the moment, because they're services business and things like that. So I think it depends on the business, depends on location, depends on whether in services or whether in goods.

現在，我們的小型企業在成長的某些領域具有一定的抗衰退能力，例如醫療保健領域。我們向醫生、獸醫和其他從事實踐的人員提供貸款的業務量很大。而這些事情往往受當前問題的影響較小，因為它們屬於服務業務和類似的事情。所以我認為這取決於業務、取決於地點、取決於服務還是商品。

But right now, if they look at the last quarter just like we're going to look at looks pretty strong, then they're going to sit there and say read the papers and see all the things coming at them and saying, should I slow down my decisioning? That I think is the worry is because once they talk themselves into slowing down, it'll be a while until they get restarted. Right now, I think it's more thoughts and then worries, and they've got to see this settle in. And when it settles in, then they know how to run their business. But right now, it's very unsettling for them.

但現在，如果他們像我們一樣看待上個季度的形勢，認為情況相當強勁，那麼他們就會坐在那裡，讀報紙，看看所有發生的事情，然後說，我應該放慢決策速度嗎？我認為令人擔心的是，一旦他們說服自己放慢速度，就需要一段時間才能重新開始。現在，我認為更多的是思考，然後是擔憂，他們必須看到這一切安定下來。當一切安頓下來後，他們就知道如何經營自己的事業。但現在，他們感到非常不安。

Ken Houston, Autonomous Research.

肯‧休斯頓，自主研究。

Thank you again for the interest income outlook slide, the waterfall. I wanted to ask, on the fixed rate asset repricing bucket, can you help us understand how much is rolling off each quarter in the HTM securities and mortgage loan books and what you're getting from that? And then also as we get closer to that second-half benefit on the cash flow hedges, what type of pick-ups are you imagining in terms of like new fixed rate versus received rate versus what's rolling off? Thank you.

再次感謝您提供的利息收入展望幻燈片和瀑布圖。我想問一下，關於固定利率資產重新定價桶，您能否幫助我們了解每個季度在 HTM 證券和抵押貸款帳簿中滾動了多少，以及您從中獲得了什麼？而且，隨著我們越來越接近下半年現金流對沖的收益，您認為新的固定利率、收到的利率以及滾動利率會出現什麼樣的成長？謝謝。

So, Ken, on hold to maturity, if you look back over the last 14 quarters, it's sort of been around $8 billion, $9 billion a quarter. It depends a little on the seasonality as we go through the year, so $8 billion this quarter, but maybe $9 billion next quarter. And normally, when those are rolling off, we're picking up 200 to 225 basis points just to give you some idea. So that's that bucket.

因此，肯，就到期持有而言，如果回顧過去 14 個季度，每個季度的持有量約為 80 億美元、90 億美元。這在一定程度上取決於一年中的季節性，所以本季是 80 億美元，但下個季度可能是 90 億美元。通常情況下，當這些利率滾動時，我們會選擇 200 到 225 個基點，只是為了給你一些概念。這就是那個桶子。

Around residential mortgages, let's say we're originating $5 billion a quarter. Typically, we're picking up a couple 100 basis points, sometimes more on those, just depends on prevailing market rates. So think about that being $5 billion at a couple 100 basis points or more.

就住宅抵押貸款而言，假設我們每季發放 50 億美元。通常情況下，我們會選擇幾百個基點，有時會更多，這取決於現行的市場利率。因此，想像一下，如果利率為幾百個基點或更高，那就是 50 億美元。

And then the cash flow swaps, we'll talk more about those as we go into the second half. But you can think about that as being something where we're probably picking up 150 basis points or so. It just depends on any given quarter, so we'll give you a little more guidance as we get closer.

然後是現金流互換，我們將在下半年進一步討論這些。但你可以想像我們可能會獲得 150 個基點左右的收益。這取決於任何特定的季度，因此我們會在臨近時為您提供更多指導。

Okay. Great. And then second question, you guys did another great job getting deposit cost down 20 basis points for the second straight quarter. As you contemplate this growth that you're seeing and continuing, how do you think about just how much you can continue to reduce rates paid relative to how you're seeing just the overall cost of funding? Thanks.

好的。偉大的。第二個問題，你們又一次出色地完成了任務，連續第二個季度將存款成本降低了 20 個基點。當您考慮到所看到並持續的這種成長時，您如何看待相對於所看到的整體融資成本，您能繼續將支付的利率降低多少？謝謝。

Yes. I don't think we'll have any change in our philosophy there. We felt like when it comes to the commercial and the wealth clients, in particular, we just passed through the cuts.

是的。我認為我們的理念不會有任何改變。我們感覺，尤其是對於商業和財富客戶來說，我們只是經歷了削減。

And then as it relates to the consumer book, we've got an awful lot of non-interest bearing there obviously. So really, you're focused there on the piece that's in the CDs and then the preferred deposits. And there, again, we tend to pass that through as it comes through.

然後，由於它與消費者帳簿相關，我們顯然在那裡獲得了大量無利息收入。因此，實際上，您關注的是 CD 中的部分，然後是首選存款。再次，我們傾向於將其傳遞下去。

So it's trickier, obviously, in consumer, where we're paying 61 basis points on 950 billion. But even there, just because we still have some CDs outstanding and we still have some preferred, we were able to take that down last quarter and (technical difficulty)

因此，顯然，在消費者方面，情況更加棘手，我們為 9,500 億美元支付了 61 個基點。但即便如此，因為我們還有一些未償還的存單，還有一些優先股，所以我們能夠在上個季度將其減少，（技術難度）

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Hey, Brian. Hi, Alistair. You guys did a very good job in giving us the details about what it looked like back in 2009 versus today on slide 22. And if we move up to slide 21, you can see the consumer loan portfolio has obviously been de-risked as you pointed out.

嘿，布萊恩。你好，阿利斯泰爾。你們在第 22 張投影片上非常出色地向我們詳細介紹了 2009 年與今天的情況。如果我們翻到第 21 張投影片，您就會發現，正如您所指出的，消費貸款組合顯然已經降低了風險。

What I'd like to ask a question about is the commercial loan portfolio, particularly the growth. Can you guys share with us some of the confidence you have that we're not going to see some issues here, particularly, you look at the dark blue, non-US commercial has grown very strongly over this time period? And what can you share with us about the risk in this portfolio relative to maybe 2009?

我想問的一個問題是關於商業貸款組合，特別是成長。你們能否與我們分享一些信心，相信我們不會在這裡看到一些問題，特別是，你們看深藍色，非美國商業在這段時間內成長非常強勁？您能跟我們分享一下與 2009 年相比該投資組合的風險嗎？

Yeah. So I'll start, Gerard. I'd say we felt like over time as we've become a more global and international company than maybe we were in 2007, it was important for us to diversify the loan book outside of just the US (technical difficulty) who also operate and sell into the United States and other places. So that's natural, I think. We've kind of supported that over time, and that's been a big part of our growth over a 15-year period.

是的。那我先開始了，傑拉德。我想說，隨著時間的推移，我們感覺自己比 2007 年時更加全球化、國際化，因此，對我們來說，重要的是將貸款業務多元化，使其不僅僅局限於美國（技術難度），還在美國和其他地方開展業務並進行銷售。所以我認為這是很自然的。我們一直在支持這一點，這也是我們 15 年來成長的重要組成部分。

Now in terms of commercial, if you look at the loan growth overall, I'd say we're pretty diversified in the way we look at that. So all lines of business grew last quarter. So that's small business banking, it's business banking, it's the commercial bank, excre. It's the global corporate investment bank. It's global markets, and it's wealth in terms of their commercial exposure. So a little bit of it is diversification in all lines of business.

現在就商業而言，如果你看一下整體貸款成長情況，我會說我們看待貸款成長的方式是相當多樣化的。因此上個季度所有業務線都實現了成長。這就是小型企業銀行業務、企業銀行業務、商業銀行等等。它是一家全球企業投資銀行。它是全球市場，也是商業曝光度的財富。因此，所有業務線都在一定程度上實現了多樣化。

And then if you looked at the book itself for the most part as we talked about it's secured. It's investment grade. We always think about good client selection. It's the sort of people who can make it through any environment. That's where we're investing and partnering.

然後，如果你看一下這本書本身，你會發現它大部分都是安全的，正如我們所討論的。這是投資等級的。我們始終考慮選擇好的客戶。他們是那種可以在任何環境中生存下來的人。這就是我們投資和合作的地方。

So then when you turn to the global markets business, that again, very diversified all assets, all client types across things like asset banks and mortgage warehouse and credit financing and subscriptions. And we feel like this book is in very good shape. We feel like they're the right clients. And then, for our teams, it's just about driving the relationship, deepening to make sure that we're seeing benefit not just in the loan portfolio, but in the other things we do across the platform.

那麼，當你轉向全球市場業務時，你會發現，所有資產、所有客戶類型都非常多樣化，包括資產銀行、抵押倉庫、信貸融資和認購等。我們覺得這本書非常好。我們覺得他們是合適的客戶。然後，對於我們的團隊來說，這只是為了推動關係，深化關係以確保我們不僅在貸款組合中看到利益，而且在我們在整個平台上所做的其他事情中也看到利益。

Very good. Very insightful. Thank you. And then as a follow-up, Alastair, you guys mentioned that the credit card charge-off ratio, was a seasonally higher number at just over 4%. And when we go back to the first quarter of '24 and '23, obviously, the charge-off levels were lower. Can you -- and especially with the unemployment rate remaining as low as it has over the last couple of years that FICO score inflation we've read about during the pandemic, what do you guys account for the number being where it is today versus the last couple of first quarters of each of those prior years, considering that the unemployment rate, for example, has not gone up that much?

非常好。非常有見地。謝謝。然後作為後續問題，阿拉斯泰爾，你們提到信用卡沖銷率是季節性較高的數字，略高於 4%。當我們回顧 24 年和 23 年第一季時，顯然沖銷水準較低。您能否——尤其是在過去幾年失業率一直保持在低位，以至於我們在疫情期間讀到 FICO 分數通膨的情況下，考慮到失業率沒有上升那麼多，你們如何解釋今天的數字與前幾年最後幾個第一季度相比的情況？

Yeah. I think that with all the stimulus and all the -- after the pandemic, wage growth for inflation, the stimulus that came in, just sheer cash, you saw these things drop to levels that we knew wouldn't hold, right, meaning charge-off rates, and the card went way down. And all you see now is it's sort of normalized around or it was in a very good credit type of error. So that's just normalization; I wouldn't overread that.

是的。我認為，在所有的刺激措施和疫情之後，通貨膨脹導致的工資增長，隨之而來的刺激措施，僅僅是現金，你就會看到這些東西下降到了我們知道不會維持的水平，對吧，這意味著沖銷率，信用卡額度大幅下降。而您現在看到的只是它已經恢復正常，或者說它處於非常好的信用錯誤類型中。這只是正常化；我不會過度解讀這一點。

It's a comparative period. So if you look relative to 2019, 2018, you'd see that those charge-off rates running 3.5-ish-plus or -minus percent or similar to what we have now. So we feel good about it.

這是一個比較時期。因此，如果你看一下 2019 年、2018 年的情況，你會發現這些沖銷率大約是 3.5% 左右，或者與我們現在的水平相似。因此我們對此感到滿意。

The important thing is, if you look at stressing that portfolio like we do, you could see that the CCAR process, our own internal stress test, if you take it across nine quarters, it doesn't come -- it's closer to honestly the charge-off rate we actually underwrote to prior to the financial crisis. We underwrote to like a 5.5% charge-off rate in normal times, and then it would go up from there. And so it's a much more core book driven at a very strong performance through crisis.

重要的是，如果您像我們一樣考慮對該投資組合的壓力，您會發現 CCAR 流程（我們自己的內部壓力測試）如果持續九個季度，結果不會出現——它實際上更接近我們在金融危機之前實際承保的沖銷率。我們承保的正常情況下的沖銷率為 5.5%，然後它會從那裡上升。因此，這是一本更核心的書，在危機中表現非常強勁。

So I think it's just normalizing more to where it was in the relatively good credit times in 2019 rather than any significant movement. And in fact, we said that, as we came through last year over and over again, people kept doubting it -- what you've seen is delinquency actually have fallen, and it's flattened out in terms of the $1 billion charge-off level on cards.

因此，我認為它只是在向 2019 年信貸相對較好的時期的水平正常化，而不是出現任何重大變動。事實上，我們說過，正如我們去年一次又一次經歷的那樣，人們一直在懷疑這一點——你所看到的是拖欠率實際上已經下降，而且就 10 億美元的信用卡沖銷水平而言，它已經趨於平穩。

Got it. Thank you, Brian.

知道了。謝謝你，布萊恩。

Okay. Well, thank you. I think that's all our questions. I just wanted to (technical difficulty) team for another good quarter. Thank you and thank you all for participating in our call number two. As I said earlier, the story of the first quarter is a strong operating performance, going again at client activity, growth in revenue and earnings, managed expenses well in a period of time we continue to make investments to position the company for the future. That diversity of types of clients and collateral types and geographies and all that holds us in good stead as not only by our own internal models but also by the comparison to stress tests, whatever may be in front of us. So our job is to serve our clients in all times, and that's what we plan to do. Thank you.

好的。好的，謝謝你。我想這就是我們的全部問題。我只是想和（技術困難）團隊一起再創佳績。謝謝大家，也謝謝大家參加我們的第二次電話會議。正如我之前所說，第一季的故事是強勁的營運表現，客戶活動再次活躍，收入和收益成長，在一段時間內管理費用良好，我們繼續進行投資，為公司的未來做好準備。客戶類型、抵押品類型和地理位置的多樣性使我們不僅透過自己的內部模型而且透過與壓力測試的比較，無論我們面臨什麼，都處於有利地位。因此，我們的工作就是始終為客戶提供服務，這也是我們計劃要做的。謝謝。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time and have a wonderful afternoon.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接並度過美好的下午。