美國銀行 (BAC) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Portion of this transcript marked (technical difficulty) indicate an audio problem. The missing text will be supplied if a replay becomes available.

本文字記錄中標示（技術難題）的部分錶示有音訊問題。如果有重播視頻，我們會補充缺少的文本。

Hello and welcome everyone joining today's Bank of America earnings announcement. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎各位參加今日的美國銀行財報發表會。（操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the meeting over to Lee McEntire. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興將會議交給李·麥克恩泰爾主持。請繼續。

Thank you, Leo. Good morning. Thank you for joining us to review our fourth quarter results. During the quarter, we elected to change the accounting method related to our tax-related equity investments in order to better align our financial statement presentation with the economic and financial impact of those investments.

謝謝你，Leo。早安.感謝您參加我們第四季業績回顧會議。本季度，我們選擇改變與稅務相關的股權投資的會計方法，以便更好地使我們的財務報表列報與這些投資的經濟和財務影響保持一致。

As a result, we filed an 8-K on January the 6th and a related mini supplemental package recasting the numbers for the quarters of 2024 and 2025 and the full year of '23 and '24. The primary impact of the accounting change was a reclassification between the income statement line items in our income statement, which had an insignificant impact on net income.

因此，我們在 1 月 6 日提交了 8-K 表格和相關的迷你補充文件，重新計算了 2024 年和 2025 年各季度以及 2023 年和 2024 年全年的數據。會計變更的主要影響是損益表中損益表項目之間的重新分類，這對淨利潤的影響微乎其微。

Our discussion today is based on those recast numbers. As usual, our earnings release documents are available on the investor relations section of the bankofamerica.com website. Those documents include the earnings presentation that we will make reference to during the call.

我們今天的討論是基於這些重新計算後的數據。與往常一樣，我們的獲利報告可在bankofamerica.com網站的投資者關係欄位中找到。這些文件包括我們將在電話會議中提到的盈利報告。

Let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risk and uncertainties, factors that may cause our actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials and SEC filings available on our website.

我想提醒各位，我們在電話會議期間可能會發表前瞻性聲明並提及非GAAP財務指標。前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和假設，但存在風險和不確定性。可能導致我們的實際業績與預期存在重大差異的因素已在我們的盈利材料和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細說明，這些文件可在我們的網站上查閱。

Information about non-GAAP financial measures including reconciliations to US GAAP can also be found in our earnings materials and are available on our website.

有關非GAAP財務指標（包括與美國GAAP的調節表）的資訊也可以在我們的獲利資料中找到，這些資料也可在我們的網站上取得。

With that, Brian, I'll pass it over to you.

布萊恩，那我就把麥克風交給你了。

Thank you, Lee, and good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning, Bank of America reported net income of $7.6 billion for the fourth quarter, that is up 12% from the fourth quarter of 2024. Our EPS was $0.98 per share, that's an increase of 18% from the fourth quarter of '24. We delivered 7% year over year revenue growth. This was led by a 10% improvement in net source income up to $15.9 billion on an FTE basis.

謝謝你，李，早安，謝謝你加入我們。今天上午，美國銀行公佈第四季淨利潤為 76 億美元，比 2024 年第四季成長 12%。我們的每股收益為 0.98 美元，比 2024 年第四季成長了 18%。我們實現了7%的年收入成長。這主要得益於淨收入成長10%，以全職員工計算達到159億美元。

For net interest income, we have delivered each quarter of what we laid out across the year and we grew average loans 8%. We grew average deposits 3%. We delivered 330 basis points operating leveraging quarter four through continuing discipline expense management. Alastair will take you through the details of the quarter, but first I want to highlight a few things about 2025, slide 2 in the earnings presentation.

淨利息收入方面，我們每季都實現了全年設定的目標，平均貸款額增加了 8%。我們的平均存款增加了3%。透過持續嚴格的費用管理，我們在第四季度實現了 330 個基點的營運槓桿收益。阿拉斯泰爾將帶您了解本季度的詳細信息，但首先我想重點介紹一下 2025 年的一些情況，請參閱收益演示文稿中的第 2 張幻燈片。

Our fourth quarter topped off a strong performance by my teammates at Bank of America for 2025. We delivered on our commitments to shareholders across the year with solid growth across revenue, earnings, and returns. We drove operating leverage and continued robust investments in people, brand, technology, and both our physical and digital networks. Those results reflect the power of our diversified business model and our commitment to drive responsible growth.

第四季度，我的隊友們在美洲銀行取得了優異的成績，為2025年的出色表現畫上了圓滿的句號。我們全年都履行了對股東的承諾，在收入、獲利和回報方面均實現了穩健成長。我們提高了營運槓桿，並持續大力投資於人才、品牌、技術以及我們的實體和數位網路。這些成果體現了我們多元化商業模式的力量以及我們致力於推動負責任成長的承諾。

Some highlights of 2025 you can see here. Revenue was a little over $113 billion was up 7% year over year for the year. Asset quality was strong, and that charge-offs improved from 2024. We grew in net income year over year by 13%.

您可以在這裡看到2025年的一些亮點。全年營收略高於1,130億美元，較去年同期成長7%。資產品質良好，從 2024 年開始，壞帳核銷情況有所改善。我們的淨收入年增了13%。

In addition, we grew EPS year over year to $3.81 or by 19%. We also increased our profitability and returns during the year. Return on tangible common equity improved 128 basis points. Our return on assets improved to 89 basis points. Our results and prudent balance sheet management allowed us to distribute 41% more in capital back to shareholders, more than $30 billion.

此外，我們的每股盈餘年增至 3.81 美元，增幅達 19%。今年我們的獲利能力和回報率也有所提高。有形普通股股東權益報酬率提高了 128 個基點。我們的資產報酬率提高至 89 個基點。我們的績效和審慎的資產負債表管理使我們能夠向股東額外分配 41% 的資本，超過 300 億美元。

We grew loans 8% and we grew deposits 3%. Loans outpace the industry and average deposits now have grown for the 10th consecutive quarter. Our focus in all the markets we serve, whether they're domestic or international has allowed us to grow our client balances at a faster pace in the industry. Dean described how we do this in the US on our Investor Day, and we will cover it later in the program.

貸款增加了 8%，存款增加了 3%。貸款增速超過行業平均水平，平均存款額已連續第十個季度增長。無論我們服務的市場是國內市場還是國際市場，我們都專注於此，這使得我們的客戶餘額成長速度在業界更快。迪恩在我們的投資者日上介紹了我們在美國是如何做到這一點的，我們將在節目的後面部分詳細介紹。

As you look to slide 3, we've also highlighted some organic growth highlights for the year and the quarter. We grew net new consumer [checking] accounts by 608,000 during the year. And that's while maintaining a strong average balance of $9,000 plus. This extended our consecutive quarterly net growth to '28 or seven years straight. We crossed over $6.5 trillion in client balances of investments, deposits, and loans across wealth and consumer banking.

如您所見，在第 3 張投影片中，我們還重點介紹了本年度和本季的一些自然成長亮點。年內，我們新增消費者（支票）帳戶淨額為 60.8 萬個。而且平均帳戶餘額仍維持在 9000 美元以上。這使得我們連續季度淨成長達到 28，也就是連續七年。我們在財富管理和消費銀行業務中，客戶投資、存款和貸款餘額累計超過 6.5 兆美元。

Our consumer investment totals reached $600 billion. Similarly, our workplace benefits totals, i.e., 401k balances and related balances crossed over $600 billion also. It's worth noting that $28 billion of our year over year loan growth came through our wealth management clients.

我們的消費者投資總額達到了 6000 億美元。同樣，我們的工作場所福利總額，即 401k 餘額和相關餘額，也超過了 6000 億美元。值得注意的是，我們年度貸款成長的 280 億美元來自我們的財富管理客戶。

Growth, stronger pre-tax margin improvement, and continued to draw net new assets. We saw Treasury service fees increase 13% over '24, and ending loans grew across each line of business year over year. Good core customer organic growth, going back to 2020 and the outside pandemic period recovery.

成長、稅前利潤率大幅提高，持續吸引淨新增資產。我們看到，財政部服務費比 2024 年增加了 13%，而且各業務線的期末貸款額逐年增加。核心客戶有機成長良好，回溯到 2020 年以及疫情結束後的復甦階段。

They were 7% higher than the prior year. Fees generated in the second half of 2025 were 25% greater than the first half. What does this show? It showed good momentum by our team. It also showed that our corporate commercial clients settled in during the year after tax policy became clear, tariffs became more understood, and they looked forward and received the benefits of deregulation.

比前一年高出7%。2025年下半年產生的費用比上半年增加了25%。這顯示了什麼？這展現了我們團隊良好的發展動能。這也表明，在稅收政策明朗、關稅更加透明之後，我們的企業商業客戶在這一年中逐漸適應了新的環境，他們期待並享受了放鬆管制的好處。

Global markets under Jimmy's leadership saw continued growth in sales and trading with its 15th consecutive quarter of improvement and drove a record year of nearly $21 billion in sales and trading revenue.

在吉米的領導下，全球市場銷售和交易持續成長，連續第 15 個季度實現改善，並創下了近 210 億美元的銷售和交易收入的年度紀錄。

In addition to these stats, I commend you to review slides 21, 23, and 25. Those highlight the continued progress of digital deployment and activation statistics for each of our businesses. You should note there the impact of (inaudible) and the continued usage growth and its use both across our businesses and with our teammates.

除了這些統計數據之外，我還建議您查看第 21、23 和 25 張投影片。這些數據突顯了我們各業務部門在數位化部署和激活統計數據方面持續取得的進展。你應該注意到（聽不清楚）的影響，以及其在我們公司內部和團隊成員中的持續使用成長和應用。

A couple of high level comments of what we see in the economy. It was a pretty good decent environment as we moved through the year 2025. Consumer spending grew 5% at $4.5 trillion grew 5% over the 2024 levels. A cap balances in consumer business that broad base of the US consumer were stable improved in 2025 consumer credit. Unemployment in the market remains stable, and the equity market appreciation benefit those consumers or investors in our Merrill Edge products or in our 401k platforms.

以下是對當前經濟情勢的一些高層次看法。進入2025年，我們擁有了一個相當不錯的環境。消費者支出成長 5%，達到 4.5 兆美元，比 2024 年水準成長 5%。2025 年，美國消費者信貸的穩定基礎得到改善，消費者業務的餘額上限也隨之提高。市場上的失業率保持穩定，股票市場的上漲有利於那些購買我們美林證券產品或投資我們 401k 平台的消費者或投資者。

This strong consumer health bodes well for a continued improvement in growth in 2026. When you go to our corporate commercial customers again, as the tax laws settled in, the tariffs appeared to be manageable and deregulation kicked in, they had a pretty good year and good profits, including good credit quality and good money movement activity as we move through the year as they participate in the world economy.

消費者健康狀況良好，預示2026年經濟成長將持續改善。再來看看我們的企業商業客戶，隨著稅法的穩定，關稅似乎可以控制，放鬆管制也開始實施，他們度過了相當不錯的一年，獲得了豐厚的利潤，包括良好的信用質量和良好的資金流動活動，隨著他們參與世界經濟，這一年也越來越好。

A world class research team has the global growth rate for GDP (technical difficulty) risks remain out there. They always do, but we're encouraged and constructive on the year ahead.

世界級的研究團隊認為，全球GDP成長率（技術難度）風險依然存在。他們總是這樣，但我們對未來一年充滿信心和建設性。

So I'll turn over to Alastair to cover the quarter.

接下來這季就交給阿拉斯泰爾來報道了。

Thank you, Brian. I'll start using slide 4, and as Brian noted, the fourth quarter was a strong quarter for us with 7% year over year revenue growth and good operating leverage producing $7.6 billion in net income or $0.98 in earnings per share. Our EPS grew 18% compared to the fourth quarter of '24.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我將開始使用第 4 張投影片，正如 Brian 指出的那樣，第四季度對我們來說是一個強勁的季度，收入同比增長 7%，良好的營運槓桿作用帶來了 76 億美元的淨收入，即每股收益 0.98 美元。與 2024 年第四季相比，我們的每股盈餘成長了 18%。

Net interest income of $15.9 billion on a fully taxable equivalent basis was strong and a little better than expected, and we saw good momentum from market-based fees that complemented the NII growth. Of the $28.4 billion in total revenue, $10.4 billion came from sales and trading, investment banking, and asset management fees, and those are three of the more highly compensable market facing areas. It's these areas that grew revenue 10% year over year in the aggregate.

以完全應稅等值計算，淨利息收入為 159 億美元，表現強勁，略好於預期，並且我們看到市場費用帶來了良好的增長勢頭，與淨利息收入的增長相輔相成。在 284 億美元的總收入中，104 億美元來自銷售和交易、投資銀行和資產管理費用，而這三個領域是市場中報酬較高的領域。這些領域的總收入年增了 10%。

On expense, the teams have shown good discipline across the businesses as we held headcount flat across the year, despite the volume growth of clients and activity. Most of the year over year expense growth was a result of revenue-related growth in markets and wealth-based activities I just described, and our continued investments in the franchise.

在支出方面，儘管客戶和業務量有所增長，但各業務團隊都表現出了良好的紀律性，全年保持了員工人數不變。年度支出成長的大部分是由於我剛才描述的市場和財富相關活動的收入成長，以及我們對特許經營權的持續投資。

We saw productivity improvements through AI and digitalization more generally, and those enabled us to add client facing associates. This year we brought another 2,000 college graduates into the company and we remain an employer of choice with progressive benefit programs for our employees.

我們透過人工智慧和更廣泛的數位化提高了生產力，這使我們能夠增加面向客戶的員工。今年我們又招收了 2000 名大學畢業生加入公司，我們仍然是員工首選的雇主，並為員工提供先進的福利計劃。

And even with those additions we managed to hold our headcount flat for the year through good management. Provision in net charge-offs declined year over year. That's for a second straight quarter, driven by continued stabilization around. And lastly, we reduced our average diluted share count by about 300 million shares, or 4% from the fourth quarter of '24.

即使增加了這些人員，我們透過良好的管理，還是設法使全年的員工人數保持不變。淨沖銷準備金年減。這是連續第二季出現這種情況，主要得益於週邊地區的持續穩定。最後，我們的平均稀釋股份數量比 2024 年第四季減少了約 3 億股，即 4%。

Slide 5 highlights the various earnings points that Brian and I have covered to this point. Using slide 6, where you see total assets ended the quarter at $3.4 trillion, little changed from Q3 as securities and cash reductions were replaced with loan growth to reduce wholesale funding.

第 5 張投影片重點介紹了 Brian 和我到目前為止討論過的各種收益點。使用投影片 6，可以看到本季末總資產為 3.4 兆美元，與第三季相比變化不大，因為證券和現金減少被貸款成長所取代，從而減少了批發融資。

As part of the plan we've discussed previously to intentionally lower balances and drive a more efficient balance sheet. Average global liquidity sources of $975 billion remain very strong. Shareholders' equity of $303 billion was up less than $1 billion, as earnings and a modest increase in OCI was mostly offset by capital return to shareholders.

作為我們之前討論過的計劃的一部分，我們將有意降低資產負債表餘額，從而提高資產負債表的效率。全球平均流動性來源依然非常強勁，達到9,750億美元。股東權益為 3,030 億美元，僅增加不到 10 億美元，原因是盈利和其他綜合收益的適度增長大部分被股東的資本回報所抵消。

In the quarter, we returned $8.4 billion of capital back to shareholders with $2.1 billion in common dividends paid and $6.3 billion of shares repurchased. $1 billion increase in share repurchase from Q3 reflects (technical difficulty) and some reduction in excess capital. Tangible book value per share of $28.03 rose 9% from the fourth quarter of '24.

本季度，我們向股東返還了84億美元的資本，其中21億美元為普通股股息，63億美元為股票回購額。與第三季相比，股票回購額增加了10億美元，反映了（技術性問題）以及部分超額資本的減少。每股有形帳面價值為 28.03 美元，比 2024 年第四季成長了 9%。

Our CET1 level decreased modestly to $201 billion driven by a $2.1 billion capital reduction from making the tax equity investment accounting change in the period and we were not required to restate prior period regulatory capital. That capital reduction reflects the timing of equity and profitability in those investment deals and comes back into our capital over the next several years as those deals wind down that accounted for roughly 12 basis points of CET1 reduction in the quarter again that we'll get back over time.

由於本期稅收權益投資會計變更導致資本減少了 21 億美元，我們的 CET1 水準小幅下降至 2,010 億美元，而且我們無需重述前期監管資本。資本減少反映了這些投資交易的股權和盈利能力的時機，隨著這些交易在未來幾年逐步結束，這些減少的資本將在未來幾年內重新回到我們的資本中，這導致本季度 CET1 減少了約 12 個基點，隨著時間的推移，我們將收回這些資本。

Risk weighted assets rose $22 billion from Q3, driven by loan growth. (technical difficulty) 11.6% to 11.4%, and it remains well above our 10% regulatory required minimum. The supplemental leverage ratio was 5.7% versus a minimum requirement of 5% as of December 31 and 3.75% under the new rule which we are adopting starting in 2026. This leaves ample capacity for balance sheet growth, means our [TLAC] ratio remained comfortably above our requirements.

受貸款成長推動，風險加權資產較第三季增加220億美元。 （技術性問題）佔比從11.6%降至11.4%，仍遠高於我們10%的監管最低要求。截至 12 月 31 日，補充槓桿率為 5.7%，而最低要求為 5%；根據我們從 2026 年開始實施的新規，最低要求為 3.75%。這為資產負債表的成長留下了充足的空間，這意味著我們的[TLAC]比率仍然遠高於我們的要求。

Trend of average deposits in the consecutive growth across those periods, average deposits were up nearly 3% from the fourth quarter of '24, driven largely by commercial client activity. Global banking grew average deposits $74 billion or 13% compared to fourth quarter '24.

在這些時期內，平均存款呈現連續成長趨勢，平均存款較 2024 年第四季成長近 3%，主要由商業客戶活動推動。與 2024 年第四季相比，全球銀行業平均存款成長 740 億美元，增幅達 13%。

Our global capabilities, innovative solutions, and our relationship managers continue to offer clients value and access to our award winning digital platform cash (technical difficulty). Consumer banking reported its third consecutive quarter of year over year growth, and low and no interest checking was up $9 billion or 2%.

我們憑藉全球化的服務能力、創新解決方案以及客戶經理團隊，持續為客戶提供價值，並讓他們能夠便捷地使用我們屢獲殊榮的數位平台現金服務。（技術難題）消費者銀行業務連續第三個季度實現同比增長，低息和無息支票帳戶增長 90 億美元，增幅達 2%。

The team also showed continued discipline on pricing while achieving that growth overall rate paid on total deposits. Of 163 basis points, declined 15 basis points from Q3, reflecting lower rates management businesses.

該團隊在定價方面也保持了持續的自律，同時實現了總存款支付率的整體成長。163個基點，較第三季下降15個基點，反映出利率管理業務下降。

Global banking and wealth management rate paid both declined 28 basis points from Q3. The rate paid on the roughly $945 billion of consumer deposits fell 3 basis points to 55 basis points in Q4 and remains low, driven by the operating nature of that account base and that client base.

全球銀行和財富管理支付費率均較第三季下降 28 個基點。第四季度，約 9,450 億美元的消費者存款利率下降 3 個基點至 55 個基點，並且仍然很低，這是由於該帳戶基礎和客戶基礎的經營性質所致。

Let's turn to loans by looking at average balances on slide 8. Loans in Q4 of $1.17 trillion improved $90 billion or 8% year over year, driven by 12% commercial loan growth. Consumer loans grew at a slower 4% year over year pace and importantly we're up across every loan category of card, mortgage, auto and home equity.

讓我們透過查看第 8 張投影片上的平均餘額來了解貸款情況。第四季貸款總額為 1.17 兆美元，年增 900 億美元，增幅達 8%，主要得益於商業貸款增加 12%。消費貸款年增率放緩至 4%，但重要的是，信用卡、抵押貸款、汽車貸款和房屋淨值貸款等所有貸款類別均實現了成長。

For the fifth quarter in a row, every business segment recorded higher average loans on (technical difficulty)While commercial loan growth has been driven by our global markets group, we've also seen year over year growth of 3% in global banking and strong custom lending growth of $18 billion year over year in wealth management as affluent clients borrowed for investments in assets like hospitality, sports, yachts, arts, and business. In addition, small business saw its 12th straight quarter of year over year lending growth.

連續第五個季度，所有業務部門的平均貸款額均有所成長（技術難題）。雖然商業貸款成長主要由我們的全球市場集團推動，但我們也看到全球銀行業務年增 3%，財富管理客製化貸款年增 180 億美元，富裕客戶借款用於投資酒店、體育、遊艇、藝術和商業等資產。此外，小型企業貸款連續第12季年增。

Let's turn our focus to NII on slide 9, where on a GAAP non-FTE basis, NII in Q4 was $15.8 billion. And on a fully taxable equivalent basis, NII was $15.9 billion, (inaudible) of '24. On a fully taxable equivalent basis, NII grew $1.4 billion over year and $528 million over the third quarter.

讓我們把注意力轉移到第 9 張投影片上的 NII，其中以 GAAP 非 FTE 計算，第四季的 NII 為 158 億美元。以完全應稅等值計算，2024 年的淨利息收入為 159 億美元（聽不清楚）。以完全應稅等值計算，淨利息收入年增 14 億美元，第三季年增 5.28 億美元。

Our growth was driven by several factors. First, we saw good core NII performance from loan and deposit growth and discipline pricing. Second, we benefited from asset repricing as higher yielding loan growth replaced loan and security maturities and paydowns. Third, client activity in global markets drove more of the sales and trading growth through NII than fees this quarter compared to Q3.

我們的發展是由多種因素所驅動的。首先，我們看到貸款和存款成長以及定價紀律帶來了良好的核心淨利息收入表現。其次，由於收益較高的貸款成長取代了貸款和證券到期及償還，我們受益於資產重新定價。第三，與第三季相比，本季全球市場的客戶活動推動了淨利息收入 (NII) 的銷售和交易成長，而費用收入則超過了銷售額和交易額的成長。

And that was about $100 million more of a shift in global markets activity to NII from MMSA was primarily impact our liabilities dropping more than the way average sulfur rates behaved on variable rate assets, so we had a slight benefit there.

全球市場活動從 MMSA 向 NII 轉移約 1 億美元，主要影響是負債下降，而不是浮動利率資產的平均硫磺價格走勢，因此我們在這方面略有獲益。

Our net interest yield, NIY improved 7 basis points from the third quarter to 208 basis points, reflecting the growth in NII, while the earnings balance remained stable as higher yielding loan balances replaced lower yielding securities. And as I said earlier, higher deposits allowed us to reduce wholesale funding while cash balances declined.

我們的淨利息收益率（NIY）較第三季度提高了7個基點，達到208個基點，反映了淨利息收入（NII）的增長，同時，由於收益率較高的貸款餘額取代了收益率較低的證券，盈利餘額保持穩定。正如我之前所說，存款增加使我們能夠減少批發融資，同時現金餘額下降。

Regarding interest rate sensitivity, on a dynamic deposit basis, we provide a 12 month change in NII for an instantaneous shift in the curve. That means interest rates would have to move instantaneously lower by another 100 basis points more than the two expected cuts contemplated in the curve.

關於利率敏感性，在動態存款的基礎上，我們提供了淨利息收入 (NII) 隨曲線瞬時變化而發生的 12 個月變化。這意味著利率必須立即再下降 100 個基點，比曲線中預期的兩次降息幅度還要多。

On that basis, a 100 basis point decline would decrease NII growth over the next 12 months by $2 billion. And if rates went up 100 basis points, NII growth would benefit additionally by approximately $700 million.

以此為基準，100 個基點的下降將導致未來 12 個月的 NII 成長減少 20 億美元。如果利率上升 100 個基點，淨利息收入成長將額外增加約 7 億美元。

With regard to a forward view of NII. Let me give you a few thoughts. At Investor Day in November, we indicated our expectation that we would see 5% to 7% growth curve, which includes two rate cuts in 2026. To reiterate our expectation from Investor Day, we expect good core NII performance from loan and deposit growth, asset repricing and cash flow swap repricing to drive the 5% to 7% NII improvement.

關於 NII 的前瞻性展望。讓我來給你分享幾點想法。在 11 月的投資者日上，我們表示，我們預計經濟成長曲線將達到 5% 至 7%，其中包括 2026 年兩次降息。重申我們在投資者日上的預期，我們預計貸款和存款成長、資產重新定價和現金流互換重新定價將推動淨利息收入 (NII) 成長 5% 至 7%。

During 2026, we expect roughly $12 billion to $15 billion in combined mortgage backed securities and mortgage loans to roll off quarterly, and those will be replaced with new assets at 150 to 200 basis points higher in yield, or they'll allow us to pay down expensive short-term debt.

2026 年，我們預計每季將有約 120 億至 150 億美元的抵押貸款支持證券和抵押貸款到期，這些資產將被收益率高出 150 至 200 個基點的新資產所取代，或者可以用來償還昂貴的短期債務。

For Q1 NII expectations, I would use Q4 as a base after excluding about $100 million or so for the shift in global markets client activity that I referenced. That is likely to be offset in MMSA, so simply a change in geography that's revenue neutral. I'd also note we have two less days of interest in Q1 than Q4, but in December. Still, we expect Q1 NII will grow roughly 7% from Q1 '25.

對於第一季淨利息收入預期，我會以第四季度為基準，並扣除我之前提到的全球市場客戶活動變化導致的約 1 億美元左右。這很可能在 MMSA 中得到抵消，因此這只是地理位置的變化，對收入沒有影響。我還想指出，第一季的利息支出天數比第四季少兩天，但這是 12 月。不過，我們預計第一季淨利息收入將比 2025 年第一季成長約 7%。

Okay Let's turn to expense and we'll use slide 10 for our discussion. This quarter we reported $17.4 billion in expense, up a little less than 4% year over year. When combined with our 7% revenue growth, this good expense management allowed us to generate more than 300 basis points of operating leverage, and that aligns to our target (technical difficulty) at Investor Day.

好的，我們接下來討論費用問題，我們將使用第 10 張投影片進行討論。本季我們的支出為 174 億美元，年成長略低於 4%。結合我們 7% 的收入成長，良好的費用管理使我們能夠產生超過 300 個基點的營運槓桿，這與我們投資者日的目標（技術難度）相符。

The increase in expense was mainly driven by incentives tied to revenue growth and higher brokerage clearing and exchange costs, or BCE costs from trading activity. Those BCE costs reflect client activity shifting toward higher growth and higher transaction cost to overseas markets now.

支出增加主要是由於與收入成長相關的激勵措施以及更高的經紀清算和交易所成本（或交易活動產生的 BCE 成本）。這些 BCE 成本反映了客戶活動目前正轉向成長更快、交易成本更高的海外市場。

These costs are the ones that are generally reimbursed by the client, so they're included in our revenue and essentially offset one another. If we isolate change in expense for the incentives tied to wealth management, and remember that reflects a 13% year over year improvement in asset management fees.

這些費用通常由客戶報銷，因此計入我們的收入，基本上可以相互抵消。如果我們單獨分析與財富管理相關的激勵措施的費用變化，並記住這反映了資產管理費用年增 13%。

And we isolate the BC&E costs that supported a 10% increase in sales and trading revenue. Then combined they represented roughly 2% of our expense growth for the year (technical difficulty)Beyond that, productivity improvements from AI and digitalization continue to help offset higher wages, benefits, and technology investments.

我們分離出支持銷售和交易收入成長 10% 的 BC&E 成本。兩者加起來約占我們當年支出成長的 2%（技術難題）。除此之外，人工智慧和數位化帶來的生產力提升持續有助於抵消更高的薪資、福利和技術投資。

(technical difficulty) From compensation and benefits to real estate and technology, and we manage this closely, not only in total numbers, but also in organizational structure, aiming to strike the right balance of managers and teammates.

（技術難題）從薪資福利到房地產和技術，我們對此都進行密切管理，不僅體現在總人數上，也體現在組織架構上，力求在管理者和團隊成員之間取得適當的平衡。

Since the end of 2023, we've operated within a tight range of 213,000 employees. This year, we hired about 17,000 new teammates just to (technical difficulty) very low attrition rate. And every time someone leaves, we take the opportunity to evaluate whether the role needs to be replaced.

自 2023 年底以來，我們的員工人數一直穩定在 213,000 人左右。今年，我們招募了約 17,000 名新團隊成員，以實現（技術難度）非常低的員工流動率。每次有人離職，我們都會藉此機會評估該職位是否需要有人接替。

Compared to the third quarter, non-interest expense was up about $100 million driven by technology investments and wealth management revenue-related costs. That was partially offset by a $200 million net benefit from the combined impact of the reduction of the FDIC special assessment accrual and some other settlements that modestly increased litigation expense.

與第三季相比，非利息支出增加了約 1 億美元，主要原因是技術投資和財富管理收入相關成本。但這部分被 2 億美元的淨收益所抵消，這筆收益來自 FDIC 特別評估應計款項的減少以及其他一些和解協議，這些協議略微增加了訴訟費用。

Looking ahead, our focus remains on delivering operating leverage for shareholders. We expect to generate about 200 basis points of operating leverage in 2026. Those expectations include a constructive fee environment that complements our expected NII growth.

展望未來，我們的重點仍是為股東創造經營槓桿效應。我們預計到 2026 年將產生約 200 個基點的營運槓桿。這些預期包括一個建設性的費用環境，以配合我們預期的淨利息收入成長。

We've seen encouraging momentum in asset management fees, investment banking, and sales and trading, and we look for that to continue. And importantly, if revenue comes in below our expectations, then obviously revenue related expense will be lower.

我們看到資產管理費、投資銀行、銷售和交易等領域都出現了令人鼓舞的成長勢頭，我們期待這種勢頭能夠持續下去。更重要的是，如果收入低於預期，那麼與收入相關的支出顯然也會減少。

As for Q1, we typically see seasonal strength in sales and trading activity and elevated payroll tax expense. Combined with the absence of the FDIC benefit we saw in the fourth quarter, and combined with ongoing productivity improvements, we expect Q1 expenses to be about 4% higher than Q1 of 2025. And even with that, we still expect to deliver operating leverage.

第一季通常會出現銷售和交易活動的季節性成長以及工資稅支出增加的情況。考慮到第四季沒有 FDIC 福利，再加上持續的生產力提升，我們預計第一季的支出將比 2025 年第一季高出約 4%。即便如此，我們仍然期望實現營運槓桿效應。

Let's now move to credit and turn to slide 11, where you can see asset quality remains sound with (technical difficulty) it's not a great deal to cover here. Our net charge-offs were $1.3 billion, down about $80 million from the third quarter, and driven by lower losses in commercial real estate.

現在我們來看信貸部分，翻到第 11 張投影片，可以看到資產品質依然良好（技術上難以解釋），這裡就不贅述了。我們的淨沖銷額為 13 億美元，比第三季減少了約 8,000 萬美元，這主要是由於商業房地產損失減少所致。

The total net charge off ratio this quarter was 44 basis points, down 3 basis points from the third quarter (technical difficulty)Provision expense in the quarter was $1.3 billion and mostly matched net charge-offs. Focusing on total net charge-offs. Looking forward in the near term, we expect continued stability and total net charge-offs, given the mostly benign consumer delinquency trends and low unemployment data, the continued stability of C&I, and reductions in our commercial real estate exposures.

本季淨沖銷率為 44 個基點，較第三季下降 3 個基點（技術困難）。本季撥備支出為 13 億美元，與淨沖銷基本一致。重點在於淨沖銷總額。展望近期，鑑於消費者違約趨勢總體溫和、失業率數據較低、工商業貸款業務持續穩定以及商業房地產風險敞口減少，我們預計業務將保持穩定，淨沖銷總額將有所下降。

On slide 12, in addition to the consumer delinquency statistics, note the modest changes in other stats for both our consumer. Let's now turn to the performance across our lines of business, beginning with consumer banking on slide 13. And for the full year the team generated $44 billion in revenue and delivered $12 billion in net income.

在第 12 張投影片中，除了消費者違約統計數據外，還要注意我們消費者的其他統計數據的輕微變化。現在讓我們來看看我們各個業務線的業績，首先從第 13 頁的消費者銀行業務開始。全年來看，該團隊創造了 440 億美元的收入，並實現了 120 億美元的淨利潤。

Net income grew 14% from 2024 and we earned a 28% return on allocated capital. In Q4, consumer banking delivered strong results, generating $11.2 billion in revenue, up 5% versus the fourth quarter of last year, and $3.3 billion in net income, up 17% and underscore both the breadth of our platform and the success of our organic growth strategy and digital banking capabilities.

2024 年淨收入成長 14%，我們獲得了 28% 的資本報酬率。第四季度，消費者銀行業務取得了強勁的業績，營收達 112 億美元，比去年第四季度增長 5%；淨利潤達 33 億美元，增長 17%，這凸顯了我們平台的廣度以及我們有機增長戰略和數位銀行能力的成功。

Our focus on client experience and investments in both physical and digital capabilities combined with (technical difficulty) drove the strong results. Business was also managed well for shareholders as we grew expense less than 2% allowing us to improve our efficiency ratio to 51% and deliver nearly 350 basis points of operating leverage highlighted by a minimum wage increase to $25 earlier this year, and incentives for more production.

我們注重客戶體驗，並投資於實體和數位能力，再加上（技術上的困難），才取得如此優異的成績。對股東而言，公司業務管理也十分出色，支出成長不到 2%，這使得我們的效率比率提高到 51%，並實現了近 350 個基點的營運槓桿，這主要得益於今年早些時候最低工資提高到 25 美元，以及鼓勵提高產量的激勵措施。

Digitalization and early utilization of AI helped offset some of the investments. Consumer investment balances grew $81 billion from Q4 '24 to nearly $600 billion supported by $19 billion in full year client flows and market appreciation.

數位化和人工智慧的早期應用有助於抵消部分投資成本。受全年客戶資金流入190億美元和市場升值的影響，消費者投資餘額從2024年第四季成長了810億美元，達到近6,000億美元。

Average balance per investment account at $147,000 is up 12% from last year. And this investment platform serves as a great catch basin for first-time investors and for more experienced investors looking to manage some element of their own money.

每個投資帳戶的平均餘額為 147,000 美元，比去年增長了 12%。這個投資平台既是首次投資者的絕佳選擇，也是希望管理部分自有資金的經驗豐富的投資者的理想選擇。

As mentioned, consumer net charge-offs improved again on a year over year basis, and we continue to see stability in asset quality metrics. Credit card net charge ratio of 3.4% improved nearly 40 basis points from Q4, and improved in quarter.

如前所述，消費者淨沖銷額年比再次改善，資產品質指標也持續保持穩定。信用卡淨收費率為 3.4%，較第四季改善近 40 個基點，本季有所改善。

Finally shown an appendix. This is slide 21. You can see strong digital adoption and the engagement that all continued and the customer experience scores remain strong, reflecting the impact of our ongoing investments in digital.

最後展示了附錄。這是第21張投影片。從數據可以看出，數位化應用取得了顯著成效，用戶參與度持續提升，客戶體驗評分也保持強勁，這反映了我們對數位化持續投入所帶來的影響。

And you can see this is a business that has strong momentum right now, and we've improved growth as we work towards the medium term targets laid out at Investor Day. For the full year, revenue of $25 billion grew 9% compared to 2024, and net income grew 10% to nearly $4.7 billion.

你可以看到，這家公司目前發展勢頭強勁，我們在朝著投資者日上製定的中期目標努力的過程中，成長速度也得到了提升。全年營收為 250 億美元，較 2024 年成長 9%；淨利成長 10%，接近 47 億美元。

Over the past three quarters (technical difficulty) and to $1.4 billion in Q4. Return on allocated capital went from 20% in Q2 up to 28% in Q4, and the pre-tax margin has climbed back into the high 20% range growth of nearly $30 billion or 13% (technical difficulty) and total flows of $96 billion.

過去三個季度（技術困難）到第四季達到 14 億美元。分配資本報酬率從第二季的 20% 上升到第四季的 28%，稅前利潤率已回升至 20% 以上，成長近 300 億美元或 13%（技術難度），總流量達 960 億美元。

And coupled with the flows of consumer investments, we saw $115 billion of wealth flows for the firm this year. And for the year, Merrill and the private bank added 21,000 net new relationships with the average size of new relationships continuing to grow across both businesses.

加上消費者投資的流入，今年該公司的財富流入量達到了 1,150 億美元。今年，美林及其私人銀行新增淨客戶關係 21,000 個，兩個業務部門新增客戶關係的平均規模持續成長。

Importantly, (technical difficulty) highlight the continued digital momentum as shown on slide 23, where new accounts have increasingly opened digitally, underscoring the effectiveness of our digital investments and the evolving preferences of our clients.

重要的是，（技術難題）突出了幻燈片 23 中所示的持續數位化發展勢頭，其中新帳戶越來越多地以數位化方式開設，突顯了我們在數位化方面的投資成效以及客戶不斷變化的偏好。

On slide 15, you see the results for global banking. The team had a good year and generated $7.8 billion in earnings, and that represented about 25% of the company's overall net income. Year over year earnings were down a modest 2% as a result of interest rate cuts impacting NII (technical difficulty) grew average deposits $71 billion or 13% and grew loans $12 billion.

第 15 張投影片展示了全球銀行業的成果。該團隊今年表現出色，創造了 78 億美元的收入，約占公司總淨收入的 25%。由於降息影響了淨利息收入（技術困難），年比收益小幅下降了 2%；平均存款增加了 710 億美元，增幅達 13%；貸款增加了 120 億美元。

This included the addition of roughly 500 new (technical difficulty) middle market, banking and more than 1,000 in business banking. They chose Bank of America as their financial services provider in 2025.

這其中包括新增約 500 個（技術難度較高的）中階市場銀行帳戶和 1000 多個商業銀行帳戶。他們選擇美國銀行作為其2025年的金融服務提供者。

For the fourth quarter, global banking delivered net income of $2.1 billion down 3% year over year, with a 6% improvement in fees overcoming the NII pressure. Business remains very efficient with a 50% efficiency ratio, and we earn 16% return on allocated capital in Q4.

第四季度，全球銀行業務淨收入為 21 億美元，年減 3%，但手續費收入成長 6%，抵銷了淨利息收入的壓力。業務效率依然很高，效率比率達到 50%，第四季我們獲得了 16% 的資本回報率。

We generated $1.67 billion in investment banking fees, up modestly over Q4 '24, and we maintained our number three position for the full year.

我們獲得了 16.7 億美元的投資銀行費用，比 2024 年第四季略有成長，並且全年保持了第三名的位置。

And as Brian and I said earlier, investment banking fees showed good momentum given all the regulatory and tariff announcements around the globe and the certainty settling in, and our pipeline remains strong. (technical difficulty)

正如我和布萊恩之前所說，鑑於全球各地監管和關稅方面的公告以及市場確定性的增強，投資銀行費用表現出良好的成長勢頭，我們的業務儲備依然強勁。（技術難題）

Switching to global markets on slide 16, I'll focus my comments on results that exclude DVA as we typically do. The global markets team produced a record year of revenue generated $24 billion in revenue for the year and that exceeded last year's revenue by 10%.

在第 16 頁，我將轉向全球市場，並像往常一樣，重點評論不包括 DVA 的結果。全球市場團隊創下了營收紀錄，全年營收達 240 億美元，比前一年營收成長了 10%。

Earnings of $6.1 billion for the year were up 8%, and the business generated a 13% return on allocated capital. Q4 global markets generated a net income just shy of $1 billion, up 5% from Q4 '24 (technical difficulty) year over year, driven by strong sales and trading performance.

該年度獲利 61 億美元，成長 8%，企業資本報酬率為 13%。第四季全球市場淨收入略低於 10 億美元，較 2024 年第四季年增 5%（技術性困難），主要得益於強勁的銷售和交易業績。

And focusing on sales and trading, revenue XDVA rose 10% year over year to $4.5 billion and it was equities trading that led the improvement growing 23% supported by (technical difficulty) it also brought higher revenue, sorry, higher cost in the form of transaction costs.

專注於銷售和交易，XDVA 收入同比增長 10% 至 45 億美元，其中股票交易引領了增長，增幅達 23%，這得益於（技術困難）也帶來了更高的收入，抱歉，是更高的交易成本。

Net revenue grew 1%, driven by improved performance in macro (technical difficulty)Loan growth continues to benefit from opportunities tied to highly collateralized pools of high-quality and liquidity in delivering these solutions. On slide 17, all others shows a loss of $132 million in Q4, with very little to cover here.

淨收入成長 1%，主要得益於宏觀經濟（技術難題）表現的改善。貸款成長持續受益於高品質、高流動性抵押資金池帶來的機遇，從而能夠提供這些解決方案。第 17 張投影片顯示，第四季虧損 1.32 億美元，這裡幾乎沒有什麼可以彌補的。

And as we wrap up, I would just note the Q4 effective tax rate was 21%. (technical difficulty)For 2026, we expect an effective tax rate of roughly 20% (technical difficulty) guidance that we discussed today.

最後，我想指出第四季的實際稅率為 21%。（技術難題）對於 2026 年，我們預計有效稅率約為 20%（技術難題），這是我們今天討論過的指導意見。

So I'll stop there. Thank you. And with that, we'll jump into Q&A.

我就說到這裡吧。謝謝。接下來，我們將進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的貝齊·格拉塞克。

Hi, good morning. Morning. Thanks so much for all the detail here. I did just want to understand one thing on the outlook as we're thinking about the expense ratio. I know that you've got the accounting change and you also have outstanding guidance for the expense ratio over the medium term. I believe it is 55% to 59%. Is that right?

您好，早安。早晨。非常感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。我只是想了解一下關於費用率方面的一個問題。我知道你們已經完成了會計變更，並且對中期費用率也有著非常出色的指導。我認為是 55% 到 59%。是這樣嗎？

Okay. I'm wondering, are you going to be adjusting that expense ratio guide given the accounting changes that you have made in this quarter?

好的。我想知道，鑑於本季度貴公司對會計準則所做的調整，是否會對費用率指引進行調整？

Well, I don't think so at this stage, Betsy, but similar to our comments on Investor Day. The numbers that we put out aren't a cap on our ambition. So obviously as we go through the course of the next couple of years. If we improved our efficiency ratio by a couple 100 basis points this year, we're going to keep driving towards that range, and once we get in that range, we'll reassess and we'll consider whether it's time to consider a lower efficiency number in the future.

嗯，貝齊，我覺得現階段還不行，但這和我們在投資人日上的評論類似。我們公佈的數字並不能限制我們的雄心壯志。所以很明顯，在接下來的幾年裡，情況會如何發展。如果今年我們的效率比率能提高幾百個基點，我們將繼續朝著這個目標努力，一旦達到這個目標，我們將重新評估，並考慮未來是否應該考慮降低效率指標。

Yeah. I was just thinking mechanically with the accounting change the revenues improve, right? So with the denominator moving higher, shouldn't that target expense ratio of 55% to 59% move down a percentage point on each side?

是的。我只是機械地想，會計準則的改變會提高收入，對吧？因此，隨著分母增大，目標費用率（55% 至 59%）是否應在兩側各下降一個百分點？

Well, remember we recast the prior periods so that's already in there when you use the comparative periods. And I think part of the reason that it was important for us just to recast all the numbers and adopt the accounting is because that's how our competitors showed their results. So now we feel like it's on a comparable footing.

記住，我們對前期資料進行了重估，所以在使用比較期間時，這些資料已經包含在內了。我認為，我們之所以要重新整理所有數據並採用會計方法，部分原因是我們的競爭對手就是這樣展示他們的業績的。所以現在我們覺得它和之前的版本處於同等地位。

Okay.

好的。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

Ken Usdin，自主研究。

Just to follow-up. Alastair, you made the point about just, your outlook for fees is strong, and obviously there'll be compensation aligned with that. So just coming back on expenses in an absolute sense with 4% year over year growth expected in the first quarter, and I know everyone's just thinking about just how do you get to this operating leverage algorithm. Is that around what you're expecting, just absolute expenses to grow given your underlying base of (technical difficulty)

補充一下。阿拉斯泰爾，你剛才提到，你的收費前景很好，顯然也會有相對應的補償。所以，就絕對意義上的支出而言，預計第一季年增 4%，我知道大家都在想如何才能得出這個經營槓桿演算法。這是否符合您的預期，僅僅是基於您現有基礎的成長所需的絕對費用？（技術難題）

Well, I think what we're trying to convey is, and we've said this over the course of the past several years, ours is an organic growth company. We're investing for growth all the time. And when we perform the way that we believe we can, we're going to create operating leverage every year. That's (technical difficulty)So we've guided you towards NII up 5% to 7% this year.

嗯，我認為我們想要表達的是，而且我們在過去幾年也一直強調，我們是一家有機成長型公司。我們一直在投資以促進成長。當我們發揮出我們認為自己能夠達到的水平時，我們每年都會創造經營槓桿效應。這是（技術難題）。所以我們引導您預計今年淨利息收入將成長 5% 至 7%。

We've said, in the first quarter we believe the first quarter will be up 4% or so. We've said that we expect the operating leverage to be a couple 100 basis points. So that should allow you to (technical difficulty) essentially.

我們之前說過，我們認為第一季將成長4%左右。我們曾表示，預計經營槓桿率將達到數百個基點。這樣應該可以讓你（克服技術難題）基本上實現。

And then I think it will just depend on your revenue assumptions regarding assets under management fees. (technical difficulty)

然後，我認為這將取決於您對資產管理費收入的期望。（技術難題）

Okay, got it. And then, so, as you think about your when you talked about the Investor Day, you talked about a 200-300 basis point range. So obviously one each year is going to be different things, but you've got with a strong base of NII growth and fee growth, and we're on the 200 side. What are the things you could do to kind of, longer-term expand that and potentially get back, to get up to the 300 side of that of that 200, 300 range that you had given us at in November? Thanks.

好的，明白了。然後，當你回想你在投資者日上談到的200-300個基點的範圍時，你也提到了這一點。所以很明顯，每年的情況都會有所不同，但憑藉強勁的淨利息收入成長和手續費成長基礎，我們已經達到了 200 左右。從長遠來看，您可以採取哪些措施來擴大規模，並有可能恢復到您在 11 月給出的 200 到 300 的範圍的 300 左右？謝謝。

Well, I think one of the things we've talked about, when we went back to Investor Day, and this gets back to driving return on tangible common equity over time. You think about the fact that we've just gone from 13% to 14% last quarter. Prior quarter we were at 15%. We said we're going to get in that 16% to 18%.

嗯，我認為我們在投資者日討論過的一件事，就是如何隨著時間的推移提高有形普通股的回報率。想想看，我們上個季度剛從 13% 升至 14%。上一季我們的比例是 15%。我們說過，我們要達到 16% 到 18% 的份額。

If you think about the organic growth opportunity we have around deposits and loans. And then you add the fixed rate asset repricing that drops to the bottom line. When we manage expense carefully as we have done this year and headcount flat sort of the core expense minus BC&E and FA incentive come closer to 2% type growth, then you'd look at something that gets pretty interesting over time.

如果你想想我們在存款和貸款方面所擁有的自然成長機會。然後，再加上固定利率資產重新定價帶來的利潤下滑，最終會反映在利潤上。如果我們像今年這樣謹慎地控制支出，並且保持人員數量穩定，核心支出減去基本運營和設備以及固定資產激勵後，增長率接近 2%，那麼隨著時間的推移，你會看到一些非常有趣的事情發生。

So that's what we're trying to drive over a period of time and you're right, it won't always show up every year where it's exactly the same. But what we're trying to do, most importantly, drive organic growth, keep our expense disciplined, that's it.

所以這就是我們一段時間以來努力的方向，你說得對，它不會每年都完全一樣。但我們最主要的目標是推動有機成長，控制支出，僅此而已。

So Ken, the number one thing is to continue to let the head count, work the head count through operational excellence and applications of, new technologies including AI that we gave you some sense for. So, as we told you invest, today's activity and Erica and our consumer business alone is worth, thousands of teammates that we don't have to have to do the great work we do for the customers.

所以肯，最重要的一點是繼續控制人員數量，透過卓越的營運和應用新技術（包括我們之前向你介紹過的人工智慧）來控制人員數量。所以，正如我們告訴你們的，投資，今天的活動，以及 Erica 和我們的消費者業務，價值數千名團隊成員，而我們不必擁有他們也能為客戶做出如此出色的工作。

So we've applied digital. That's why you put the pieces in the deck that you could see in the pages 21 and beyond. We apply the digital capabilities now AI capabilities, and you saw during the year the head count was basically flat. Well, we added more people in the field facing off the clients and generating new client flows and that's why when Alastair talked about the middle market business, particularly the private bank business, why we're seeing a strong growth there.

所以我們應用了數位化技術。這就是為什麼你要把牌組中的那些牌放到第 21 頁及以後的牌組裡。我們現在應用了數位化能力和人工智慧能力，正如你所看到的，這一年員工人數基本上保持不變。我們增加了更多第一線人員，直接面對客戶，開發新的客戶群體，這就是為什麼阿拉斯泰爾談到中端市場業務，特別是私人銀行業務時，我們看到該領域實現了強勁增長的原因。

So it's going to be about bringing up. The numbers of people down over time and we expect the head count to come down during this year at a 7%, 7.5% turnover rate. You got to take us hire 1,000 plus people so we can just make decisions not to hire and let the head count drift down. The team's done a good job of it. We end the year basically flat and we absorbed, as Alastair said, 2,000, very talented teammates from colleges, in July.

所以關鍵在於提出這個問題。隨著時間的推移，員工人數會減少，我們預計今年員工人數將以 7% 至 7.5% 的流動率下降。你得讓我們招1000多人，這樣我們就可以決定不招人，讓員工人數慢慢減少。團隊做得很好。今年我們基本上保持平穩，正如阿拉斯泰爾所說，我們在7月從大學吸收了2000名非常有才華的隊友。

And by the end of the year we're down to 2,000 people and end up back net neutral. So that's what you're going to get there. If you look at the expense load, it comes from people and it comes from the benefits and the compensation, and it ultimately comes from the buildings and computer systems to allow them to do the great job for clients. So that's what we're working on.

到年底，我們的人數將減少到 2000 人，最終實現淨零成長。所以這就是你將在那裡得到的東西。如果你看一下支出負擔，它來自人力、福利和薪酬，最終來自建築物和電腦系統，以便他們能夠為客戶出色地完成工作。這就是我們正在努力的方向。

Okay guys, thanks a lot.

好的，謝謝各位。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國證券。

Hi. If you could just give more of an update on technology, what do you expect your spend to be this year versus last year, your spend on AI. And then slide 21, but again, we, I think everybody appreciates the data you provide on your digital engagement, which is more than others., but no good deed goes unpunished. I'm just looking at slide 21 and your interactions in consumer with Erica took a dip down in the last year, even while your users go up. So we can talk about spend, investments, and results from tech and especially AI. Thank you.

你好。如果您能提供更多關於技術方面的最新信息，例如您預計今年的支出與去年相比會有什麼變化，以及您在人工智慧方面的支出。然後是第 21 張投影片，但是，我想每個人都會感謝你提供的關於你的數位參與度的數據，這比其他人提供的要多，但是好心沒好報。我正在看第 21 張投影片，發現去年您與 Erica 的消費者互動有所下降，即使您的用戶數量有所增加。所以我們可以談談科技，特別是人工智慧領域的支出、投資和成果。謝謝。

Yes, so Mike, we'll be up on initiatives this year, 5%, 6%, 7% I think the types of numbers. A total spending $13 billion plus, $4 billion plus in initiatives, that's all new code and in that spending, remember also we get the advantage of all the other people. So for example, under the 365 copilot rollout which is now out across total of 200,000 teammates and using and learning from it, we expect to get good leverage of that, so that's an increase in the run rate year over year. So that's the technology is increasing. The technology number is sizable, and the team does a good job in implementing change every weekend, frankly, except for one a year, so we feel good about that.

是的，麥克，我們今年的各項措施將會取得進展，我想大概是 5%、6%、7% 之類的數字。總共花費超過 130 億美元，其中 40 億美元用於各項舉措，全部都是新代碼，而且別忘了，在這些支出中，我們還能獲得其他所有人的優勢。例如，目前 365 副駕駛系統已在總共 20 萬名團隊成員中推出，我們正在使用並從中學習，我們預計能夠很好地利用該系統，從而實現逐年增長。這就是科技進步的體現。技術團隊規模龐大，坦白說，除了每年一次之外，團隊每個週末都能很好地實施變革，所以我們對此感到滿意。

One of the things that you'll note is, you use these technologies in combinations. So your point on Erica, I asked the same question, Mike, because it's pretty straightforward. Why would the interactions with Erica go down? The reality of that is what we don't show you is the amount of alerts that we deliver. So you can set up alerts which then has slowed down the need for Erica because the alerts are up to, I think, billions a quarter that are telling you when your balance is low and things like that to avoid you going in and asking the question.

你會注意到的一點是，你會將這些技術組合起來使用。關於艾莉卡的問題，我也問了同樣的問題，麥克，因為這個問題很簡單明了。為什麼與艾麗卡的互動會減少？但我們沒有向你展示的，是我們發出的警報數量。所以你可以設定提醒，這樣就減少了對 Erica 的需求，因為這些提醒每季高達數十億美元，它們會告訴你餘額不足之類的事情，從而避免你進去詢問。

So that combination of things is growing very quickly. So, again, what we always try to do is look at a process from a customer to you and figure out how you can get that customer, the best client, the best customer experience at the lowest cost, so you can pile that back into the low fee structures which help us grow the business for, as we said for seven straight years in checking accounts.

因此，這些因素結合起來發展得非常迅速。所以，我們一直在努力做的，就是審視從客戶到您的整個流程，並找出如何以最低的成本獲得最佳客戶體驗，從而讓您能夠以最低的成本獲得最佳客戶，從而將節省下來的費用投入到低收費結構中，這有助於我們發展業務，正如我們連續七年在支票帳戶方面所做的那樣。

So there's a technical explanation on the Erica that is a little bit different, but thematically you can see just the digital enablement just continues to grow and continues (technical difficulty)

所以，Erica的技術解釋略有不同，但從主題來看，數位化賦能仍在不斷發展壯大。（技術難題）

Okay, and specifically on AI investments, like how much do you spend on that or the number of people if you could mention that and kind of what kind of outcomes you're looking for, especially as we sit here at the start of the year.

好的，具體來說，關於人工智慧投資，例如你們在這方面投入了多少資金，或者有多少人參與，以及你們希望獲得什麼樣的成果，尤其是在今年年初的時候。

Yeah, well, we're looking for -- We have, yeah, to give you an example, we have 18,000 people on the company's payroll to code, and we've using the AI techniques we've taken 30% out of the coding technique, the coding part of the stream of introducing a new product or service or change that saves us about 2,000 people. So that's how we're applying it. That was this year's statistic, meaning 25.

是的，我們正在尋找——舉個例子，我們公司有 18,000 名員工負責編寫程式碼，而我們利用人工智慧技術，已經減少了 30% 的編碼工作量，也就是在推出新產品或服務或進行變更的過程中，編碼部分的工作量，這為我們節省了大約 2,000 人。這就是我們應用它的方式。這是今年的統計數據，即 25。

Next year we should get more out of it as we figure out apply it across. So you know there's 20 different projects going on in the company. I don't know off the top of my head the total expenditure, but it's several $100 million.

明年我們應該能從中獲得更多好處，因為我們需要弄清楚如何將其全面應用。所以你知道公司裡有20個不同的專案正在進行中。我一時想不起來總支出是多少，但肯定有好幾億美元。

And importantly we're going through the company to generate more ideas, how to apply AI, and use an example, like our audit team has built a capability they think, a series of prompts around doing audits and stuff to allow them to shape the headcount back down that they had to grow during the regulatory onslaught over the last few years.

更重要的是，我們正在公司內部進行深入探討，以產生更多想法，探討如何應用人工智慧。舉個例子，例如我們的審計團隊已經建立了一種能力，他們認為，圍繞審計等一系列提示，可以幫助他們減少過去幾年在監管衝擊下不得不增加的員工人數。

They're going to be able to bring that down and with AI, they'll be able to bring it down further, and they've laid out plans to do that. And so that's going on everywhere, but that was organic from there starting to use the co-pilot, capabilities and then learning how to do the prompts and then using it to set up audit practices. So you're seeing it everywhere in the company.

他們能夠降低這個數字，而且借助人工智慧，他們能夠進一步降低這個數字，他們已經制定了相應的計劃。所以這種情況到處都在發生，但這都是自然而然發生的：先是開始使用副駕駛功能，然後學習如何執行提示，最後用它來建立審計流程。所以你在公司裡到處都能看到這種情況。

So there's, I don't know 15, 20 projects going on and there'll be a laundry list of much bigger size as we go through the company now are generating ideas now that people are using getting used to how to use it.

所以，我不知道，現在有 15 到 20 個項目正在進行中，而且隨著我們逐步了解公司目前的運作方式，還會出現更多規模更大的項目，因為人們正在使用它，並且逐漸習慣瞭如何使用它。

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

John McDonald，Truist Securities。

Thank you. Good morning. One of the other levers for the ROTCE ambitions that you guys have talked about is the denominator with the CET1 ratio. Could you talk a little bit, Alastair or Brian, about the time line for kind of where you are today with [11.4%] to the target you laid out, which I think was around mid-10s?

謝謝。早安.你們提到的實現 ROTCE 目標的另一個槓桿是 CET1 比率的分母。Alastair 或 Brian，能否談談你們目前的進度（11.4%）與你們設定的目標（我認為是 10% 左右）之間的差距？

Yes. I think, John, if you think about that we're still, as you well know, and your colleagues will now, we're still waiting for the rules to get finalized and they're multifaceted rule set that we got to make sure how it applies. But our goal, we appealed from 11.6% to 11.40%.

是的。約翰，我想，如果你仔細想想，我們仍然，正如你很清楚的，你的同事們現在也會知道的，我們仍在等待規則最終確定，這是一套多方面的規則，我們需要確保它如何適用。但我們的目標是將支持率從 11.6% 提高到 11.40%。

And you're going to keep peeling that number down through expansion of our markets business, expansion of lending and other uses of RWA and so -- and we bought back a little more stock than in dividends than we earned. And so we'll keep working that down. But the idea is not to take the $200 billion-ish nominal and reduce that a lot.

你們將透過擴大市場業務、擴大貸款業務以及 RWA 的其他用途等方式不斷降低這個數字——而且我們回購的股票比我們賺取的股息還要多一些。所以我們會繼續努力降低這個數值。但其理念並非大幅削減約 2,000 億美元的名目金額。

The idea is to use the excess to grow the balance sheet and let that work down as we see the final rules, the constraint may be sort of to common equity ratio stuff or $6.20. Could you be in the mid- to high 5s or something like that, that might be possible. And if you -- so we'll let this all drift down over time.

我們的想法是利用盈餘資金來擴大資產負債表，然後根據最終規則逐步降低成本。限制因素可能是普通股權益比率或6.20美元之類的。或許可以做到5%到5%之間，或許可行。如果你——那麼我們就讓這一切隨著時間推移而平息下來吧。

And so just expect us to keep buying back -- to paying the dividend, increasing it and buying back the stock. And remember that as you said, we've drifted down a little bit by growth, but also the accounting change hit it, which will repeat. So the next quarter we'll keep walking it down. Just the idea is as this will settle in, then maybe we can be more aggressive, but we got to know exactly what we're dealing with.

所以，請大家期待我們繼續回購股票──支付股利、提高股利並回購股票。正如你所說，我們因為成長而略有下滑，但會計準則的改變也對其造成了衝擊，這種情況還會再次發生。所以下個季度我們將繼續推進。我們的想法是，等事情穩定下來之後，或許我們可以採取更積極的措施，但我們必須確切地知道我們面對的是什麼。

Okay. And then maybe if we pull back just the broader timeline on the ROTCE path. It looks like for 2025, you kind of ended in the 14, low 14s. What's the ambition to get to the lower end of the (inaudible) and then the 18 over time.

好的。然後，也許我們可以把 ROTCE 路徑的更廣泛時間線拉回來。看起來 2025 年，你的最終排名大概在 14 到 14 之間。目標是達到（聽不清楚）的下限，然後隨著時間的推移達到 18。

I think we made it clear that you had -- and by the 8th quarter to the 12th quarter, you move in the lower part of the range and then the upper part of the range given a core economy growing it to 2.5% type of number. So -- and all the other attributes. So we made that clear. So that's basically 8 quarters from -- including this quarter, obviously, first quarter '26 and then we move into the 16 level, and then we move to the upper end of the range as we move through the third year.

我認為我們已經明確表示，從第八季度到第十二季度，在核心經濟成長到 2.5% 左右的情況下，你會先進入區間的下限，然後再進入區間的上限。所以——以及所有其他屬性。我們已經把這一點說清楚了。所以基本上從 2026 年第一季開始，包括本季在內，共有 8 個季度，然後我們進入 16 級，隨著我們進入第三年，我們將進入範圍的上限。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning. I was hoping you could elaborate a bit on your outlook for loan growth and some of the drivers. You've obviously been bringing loans quite a bit. And just well in excess of the industry and how sustainable is that? And what are some of the drivers?

早安.我希望您能詳細闡述您對貸款成長的展望以及一些驅動因素。顯然你一直在進行大量的貸款業務。而且遠遠超過行業平均水平，這種情況可持續嗎？那麼，有哪些驅動因素呢？

Yes. So embedded in our NII assumption is loan growth in the mid-single digits Matt. Obviously, we've had pretty good loan growth this year, kind of $20 billion a quarter or so. A decent amount of that has been on the commercial side. And we highlighted that in our financials and in our commentary earlier.

是的。因此，我們的淨利息收入假設中包含了貸款成長率在個位數中段的預期，Matt。顯然，我們今年的貸款成長相當不錯，每季大約成長了 200 億美元左右。其中相當一部分都發生在商業領域。我們在先前的財務報告和評論中都強調了這一點。

So we're still seeing the growth in each of the consumer categories. And that feels like it's in a position where it's likely to continue to grow from here. So we feel pretty good about those two. I don't see any reason that it would be a whole lot lower necessarily than it was last year, but last year was a good one year, no question. So that's why we're saying mid-single digits. I think it will still be led by commercial. But you see the consumer categories picking up.

因此，我們仍然看到各個消費類別正在成長。感覺它目前所處的位置，很可能會繼續發展壯大。所以我們對這兩個人都挺滿意的。我不認為今年的業績一定會比去年低很多，但毫無疑問，去年是個不錯的年份。所以這就是為什麼我們說的是中個位數。我認為它仍然會由商業主導。但你可以看到消費品類別正在回升。

Okay. And then I guess, specifically in credit card, the spending was good, up 6% year-over-year or the balances were up just a couple of percent, fees were down. I know at Investor Day, you talked about accelerating the growth there. Maybe just update a little on kind of the initiatives there and the timing.

好的。然後，我猜，具體到信用卡方面，消費情況不錯，同比增長 6%，或者說餘額只增長了幾個百分點，費用卻下降了。我知道在投資者日上，您談到了加快那邊的成長。或許可以簡單介紹一下那邊正在推進的專案以及時間安排。

Yes. So (inaudible) was very clear about this at Investor Day. It's our intention to continue to accelerate the growth in card. I think we've seen that in the last three or four quarters. It's picked up sequentially quarter after quarter. And if you were to look at what the team is doing right now, they're investing a little more for future growth.

是的。所以（聽不清楚）在投資者日上對此表達得非常清楚。我們的目標是繼續加快信用卡業務的成長。我認為在過去三、四個季度裡，我們已經看到了這一點。它逐季上升。如果你看看這支隊伍現在正在做的事情，他們正在為未來的發展投入更多資金。

So you can see that in some of the things we're doing around the World Cup this year. You can see it in some of the things we're doing around more rewards in November. You can see it in our rewards program with our co-brand partners. And you could see it in the June cash back rewards offering. So we've got a lot of things going on right now that we're excited about. We know what we've committed in terms of higher credit card growth, and we feel like we're on the right path.

所以你可以從我們今年在世界盃期間所做的一些事情中看到這一點。你可以從我們11月份推出的更多獎勵措施中看出這一點。您可以在我們與聯名合作夥伴的獎勵計劃中看到這一點。這一點可以從六月的現金回饋獎勵活動中看出。所以我們現在有很多事情正在進行，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們知道我們在提高信用卡業務成長方面做出了怎樣的承諾，我們也感覺自己走在正確的道路上。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

Hi, good morning. I just need to reask this question, Brian, Alastair because as I speak with investors, I think the communication on efficiency and expenses is a big part of what's holding down the stock. So just to clarify in terms of what Betsy was asking, she was asking, well, given the restatement and thereby higher fees, shouldn't you adjust the efficiency ratio range to 54% to 58% because you shouldn't get credit for the restatement, right?

您好，早安。布萊恩、阿拉斯泰爾，我需要再次問這個問題，因為在與投資人交談時，我認為效率和費用的溝通是股價下跌的主要原因之一。為了澄清貝齊提出的問題，她的問題是，鑑於財務報表重述導致費用增加，是否應該將效率比率範圍調整為 54% 到 58%，因為不應該因為財務報表重述而獲得積分，對嗎？

So that's why she was asking that. And I think what Ken was asking was, everything that Alastair mentioned, the curve, the growth capital markets, it's hitting this year, right? And so you're on the low side of the 200 basis point -- of the 200 to 300. And so I guess the question here is what should we take away in terms of the expense messaging?

所以她才會問這個問題。我認為肯想問的是，阿拉斯泰爾提到的所有事情，例如曲線、成長資本市場，今年都會受到影響，對吧？所以你的匯率處於 200 個基點的低端——在 200 到 300 之間。所以，我想這裡的問題是，就費用資訊而言，我們應該吸取什麼教訓？

Is it sort of what Brian alluded to that the headcount just needs time to work through and then you'll hit 250 to 300, and we just need to be patient. Is there more investment spend like you told Mike Mayo that you wanted to front load in a great revenue year. Like what exactly do you want your investors to take away in terms of how you're viewing the expense growth relative to your -- the revenue side because, for example, for your closest peer at JPMorgan, they grow expenses to $105 billion, no one really links, right, because of the revenue side. So what is the underlying message for operating leverage for Bank of America over this year and over the three years that is underpinning that 16% to 18%?

布萊恩暗示的那種情況是不是就是這樣，人員數量需要時間慢慢調整，然後就會達到 250 到 300 人，我們只需要耐心等待。你是否像你告訴麥克梅奧的那樣，希望在營收豐厚的年份前期加大投資投入？例如，你希望投資人從你對支出成長相對於收入的看法中獲得什麼資訊？因為，例如，你最接近的競爭對手摩根大通的支出增長到 1050 億美元，沒有人真正將其與收入聯繫起來，對吧？那麼，支撐美國銀行今年和過去三年16%至18%經營槓桿率的根本原因是什麼呢？

Let's back up to it. We -- as Alistair said, we are driving these numbers and they have improved on a recast basis by a couple of hundred basis points, and they'll continue to improve. And so the range will move down to lower numbers. And when we get into the range, we'll reset the range. But I think we're focused on the wrong thing.

讓我們回到過去。正如 Alistair 所說，我們正在推動這些數字的成長，經過重新調整後，這些數字已經提高了幾百個基點，而且還會繼續改善。因此，範圍將向下移動到更低的數字。當進入該範圍時，我們將重置範圍。但我認為我們關注的重點錯了。

The question is, what are you doing now as opposed to what you say you're going to do. We have a tendency to actually deliver as opposed to talk about what we do in the future, and that's what we focus on. So what have we done? The efficiency ratio came down a couple of hundred basis points on an apples-to-apples basis with the parts of the revenue stream that are least efficient, the wealth management revenue growing very strong in the capital markets revenue.

問題是，你現在正在做什麼，與你聲稱要做什麼相比如何？我們傾向於用實際行動來解決問題，而不是空談未來要做什麼，而這正是我們所關注的。我們究竟做了什麼？與收入流中效率最低的部分相比，效率比率下降了幾百個基點，而財富管理收入和資本市場收入成長非常強勁。

So when the consumer bank revenue grows in and Global Banking revenue grows at the efficiency ratio there at, they produce a lot more pop than wealth management, which has, obviously, the financial advisory tariffs. So you have to also think of where the revenue growth is coming from to see the improvement, but we moved to 200 basis points. We've moved in past years when rates stabilize, we'll move it into the 50s.

因此，當消費者銀行收入和全球銀行收入以相應的效率比率成長時，它們產生的收入比財富管理收入多得多，而財富管理收入顯然包含財務諮詢費用。所以你還得考慮收入成長來自哪裡才能看出改善，但我們已經提高了 200 個基點。過去幾年，當利率穩定下來時，我們會將其調整到 50 左右。

As you get the lower efficiency ratio, the operating leverage can be narrow and you still get a bigger earnings spot. One thing that we've been telling you and that we want to make sure people understand is our goal is to keep driving all the extra NII to the bottom line meaning the difference between sort of the core and the repricing because we owe that to drive the returns up and the rest of it will have more normalized attributes to it.

隨著效率比率的降低，經營槓桿可以縮小，但仍可以獲得更大的獲利空間。我們一直告訴大家，也希望大家理解，我們的目標是繼續把所有額外的淨利息收入轉化為利潤，也就是核心收益和重新定價收益之間的差額，因為我們有責任提高收益，而其餘部分將具有更規範的屬性。

So we've driven the efficiency down, and we expect to continue to drive it down. It is all going to be due to headcount because that's 60-plus percent of our expenses. We've absorbed inflation and everything while we're doing that. The expense growth Alastair just told you first quarter, 4% with expense increases and base increases and third-party inflation coming through, et cetera. So we're very -- we're very efficiently to our businesses, and we're very efficient relatively to our peers, and that will continue to improve.

所以我們已經降低了效率，而且我們預計還會繼續降低效率。這一切都是因為人員編制問題，因為人員編制占我們支出的 60% 以上。我們在做這一切的同時，也承受了通膨和其他各種影響。阿拉斯泰爾剛剛告訴你，第一季支出增加了 4%，其中包括支出增加、基數增加以及第三方通貨膨脹等因素。因此，我們的業務效率非常高，相對於同業而言效率也很高，而且這項優勢還會持續提高。

And that's -- I don't know how to do it. One of the things when I talk to investors and I actually talked to people own a lot of stock every quarter. Their view is stay away from -- focus people on the operating leverage in the company because at the end of the day, we've got to grow expenses at a faster rate, which we have been doing than a slower rate than revenue -- excuse me, revenue at a faster rate than expenses for operating leverage. We produced that for our last five quarters. We had five years of it leading up to the pandemic.

而那——我不知道該怎麼做。當我與投資者交談時，我發現他們每季都持有大量股票。他們的觀點是遠離——讓人們專注於公司的經營槓桿，因為歸根結底，我們必須讓支出以比收入更快的速度增長，而我們一直以來都是這樣做的——抱歉，是收入以比支出更快的速度增長，才能實現經營槓桿。我們過去五個季度都做到了這一點。在新冠疫情爆發前的五年裡，這種情況一直持續著。

You should expect us to get back on a streak. But the reason why they want us to focus on that, the people that own the stock is to get away from the nominal dollar debate every quarter and get more focused on how the team is doing a great job of driving the revenue and driving the expense. The revenue growth slows down because the dynamics outside our company, the expense growth will slow down.

你們應該期待我們重回連勝軌道。但他們希望我們這些股票持有者關注這一點的原因是，要擺脫每季名目美元的爭論，並更加關注團隊在推動收入和控制支出方面做得多麼出色。由於公司外部環境的變化，收入成長放緩，支出成長也將放緩。

Got it. Okay, thank you.

知道了。好的，謝謝。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，海港環球證券。

Hey, good morning. Maybe just a question on deposits. We've seen three rate cuts in September. Can you speak to what you're seeing in terms of deposit pricing whether betas are worse, better or worse than expected? And just also what you're seeing with respect to client behavior would just be helpful to?

嘿，早安。或許只是想問關於存款的問題。9月我們已經看到了三次降息。您能否談談您觀察到的存款定價情況，例如，測試值是否比預期更差、更好還是更差？另外，您觀察到的客戶行為方面的資訊也會很有幫助嗎？

Okay. First, with respect to our pricing discipline, really when you talk about pricing, we're most focused on the upper end of the corporate banking, commercial banking, a very large global banking deposit base where we're passing on rate cuts essentially the moment that they take place and in full.

好的。首先，就我們的定價紀律而言，實際上，當我們談到定價時，我們最關注的是企業銀行、商業銀行的高端業務，以及非常龐大的全球銀行存款基礎，在這些業務中，我們會在降息發生的第一時間，以全額利率將降息傳遞給客戶。

And so that's why you see the beta there, obviously quite high. Same thing in the upper end of wealth management. Consumer, you see much less in the way of pricing coming down because we have so much in the way of noninterest-bearing and checking and so much in the way of low interest-bearing.

所以你才會看到 beta 值很高。高端財富管理領域也存在同樣的問題。消費者們，由於我們有大量的無息貸款和支票帳戶，以及大量的低利率貸款，因此價格下降的趨勢會大大減弱。

So we feel good about the team's pricing discipline overall. In terms -- and you should expect that to continue in Q1, recognizing that the rate cut was late in Q4. In terms of growth, I think if you were -- to look at Page 7 in the earnings materials, it sort of tells you the picture. On the bottom right, you can see Global Banking. That's had a very good period of growth.

因此，我們對團隊的整體定價紀律感到滿意。就利率而言——你應該預計這種情況會在第一季繼續下去，因為降息是在第四季末進行的。就成長而言，我認為如果你看一下收益資料的第 7 頁，它就能大致說明情況。在右下角，您可以看到“全球銀行業務”。該行業經歷了一段非常好的成長期。

Not sure that sustains at that sort of level. But we've had good growth in Global Banking. And most importantly, on the top right, consumer has begun to turn and is growing. And that's the most powerful engine for us. Those are the most valuable balances.

我不確定這種水平能否持續下去。但我們在全球銀行業務方面取得了良好的成長。最重要的是，右上角的消費者已經開始轉變並不斷成長。而這正是我們最強大的引擎。這些是最有價值的餘額。

We've now got three quarters of year-over-year growth. It's poised to grow, place to accelerate. So that's very important and wealth management is bottoming here. So we feel good about the mix of deposits changing in our favor this year. I won't just need to make sure that we keep track of that through the course of the year, but we're pretty optimistic on that, Jim.

我們現在已經實現了三個季度的同比增長。它蓄勢待發，即將發展壯大。所以這一點非常重要，財富管理產業正處於觸底的階段。因此，我們對今年存款結構朝著對我們有利的方向發展感到滿意。吉姆，我不僅需要確保我們在這一年中持續跟踪此事，但我們對此相當樂觀。

Right. So I guess when you think about maybe inflection (inaudible) in deposits growing loan growth still strong. You have an NII target of 5% to 7% for this year. Could we just drill down and look at NII ex markets, it's grown about 5% over the past two quarters. Is that a reasonable growth rate for this year? Or do rate cuts make that a little more challenging? Just how do we think about the markets versus ex markets NII dynamic?

正確的。所以我覺得，當你考慮到存款成長可能出現轉折點（聽不清楚）時，貸款成長仍然強勁。今年的淨利息收入目標為​​ 5% 至 7%。我們能否深入分析除市場外的淨利息收入，它在過去兩個季度增加了約 5%。今年這樣的成長率合理嗎？或者說，降息會讓情況變得更具挑戰性？我們該如何看待市場內淨利息收入與剔除市場內淨利息收入之間的動態關係？

Yes. So markets is going to benefit from a couple of different things. First, we obviously invested 10% plus into the Global Markets balance sheet. So that tends to mean that we're likely to grow NII, okay? Second, a big portion of that growth has been in loans.

是的。因此，市場將受益於幾個不同的因素。首先，我們顯然將超過 10% 的資金投入全球市場資產負債表。所以這往往意味著我們可能會增加淨利息收入，好嗎？其次，這其中很大一部分成長來自貸款。

They're totally about NII. So that obviously is helpful. Third, when rates are cut, because markets tends to be liability sensitive that tends to be good for markets NII, okay. All those things are true. And the only thing, Jim, that I was just making sure that I pointed out in my comments earlier was we ended up at $15.9 billion.

他們完全是關於NII的。這顯然很有幫助。第三，當利率下修時，由於市場對負債較為敏感，這往往有利於市場淨利息收入，好的。這些都屬實。吉姆，我剛才在評論中強調的一點是，我們最終的結果是 159 億美元。

That is what I would consider to be mostly all core NII. It just happens that we had about $100 million or so of Global Markets NII that I think will revert back to MMSA next period. So that's the one part that I just feel like is important for us to note, but otherwise, I think Global Markets NII will grow with the continued investment in loans and in the business over time.

這就是我所認為的幾乎全部的核心NII。恰好我們有大約 1 億美元的全球市場淨利息收入，我認為這筆收入將在下一期轉回 MMSA。所以我覺得這一點很重要，需要我們注意。除此之外，我認為隨著對貸款和業務的持續投資，全球市場淨利息收入將會成長。

Okay thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Oh great, good morning, Alastair, on the funding remix. I guess what's left to go in your view based on your core deposit trends? And how much of that is baked into the guide, the liability optimization?

哦，太好了，早上好，阿拉斯泰爾，關於資金重組。根據你對核心礦床趨勢的分析，你認為還有哪些面向需要關注？指南中究竟包含了多少責任優化方面的內容？

You're talking how much of the wholesale funding can we take down over time?

你是說隨著時間的推移，我們可以減少多少批發融資？

Yes, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

I'd say probably at this point, somewhere around $50 billion to $100 billion just on ballparking that between repo CP, some of the short-term wholesale funding institutional CDs that we put out there that are just quietly rolling off now quarter after quarter after quarter. So that's the sort of number I would use.

我估計，目前回購商業票據、我們發行的一些短期批發融資機構存單等，加起來大概有 500 億到 1000 億美元，這些存單現在正悄悄地一個接一個地到期。所以，這就是我會使用的數字類型。

Okay. Great. And then just piggybacking on the loan growth comment. The optimism I heard on the commercial growth. I guess any asset class is perhaps not as optimistic into '26? And if I missed it on the card expectations with the proposal, any comments there about either growth or expectations for -- to offset that would be great.

好的。偉大的。然後就藉用一下關於貸款成長的評論。我聽到的都是對商業成長的樂觀看法。我猜想，對於任何資產類別來說，到2026年可能都不會那麼樂觀吧？如果我錯過了提案中關於卡片預期方面的信息，任何關於增長或預期方面的評論——以彌補這一點——都將非常有用。

Just restate the question one more time for me. Just say it again.

請你再跟我複述一次問題。再說一次。

Sure. Expectations for loan growth, anything you're not pushing on for growth? And then given the President's proposed 10% cap on card yields, any comments related to that related to your current strategy?

當然。對貸款成長有何預期？有沒有什麼成長方面沒有重點推進的？鑑於總統提議將信用卡收益率上限設為 10%，您對此以及您目前的策略有何看法？

Okay. So on loans, I don't -- I mean, I'd say we're pushing for loan growth everywhere we can find good high-quality loan growth. So there is no place that we're not pushing. We obviously have substantial excess of deposits above our loans. So we've got a lot of capacity there.

好的。所以關於貸款，我不——我的意思是，我會說我們正在盡一切可能找到優質貸款增長點的地方推動貸款增長。所以，我們無所不包。顯然，我們的存款遠遠超出貸款額。所以我們在那裡有很多產能。

We've got a lot of excess capital, we'd like to continue to deploy if we can find productive uses with our client base. So pushing everywhere I think commercial has obviously had a good period. Wealth Management has had a good period, too. Some of that relates to things like traditional securities-based lending, but some relates to wealthy people looking to purchase expensive assets, and we're there to help them with that, obviously.

我們有很多剩餘資金，如果能為我們的客戶群找到有效的用途，我們希望繼續投入使用。所以我認為，到處都在推動商業發展，顯然商業已經經歷了一段繁榮時期。財富管理產業也迎來了一段良好時期。其中一些與傳統的證券抵押貸款有關，而另一些則與富人希望購買昂貴資產有關，顯然，我們會幫助他們實現這一目標。

The consumer piece had been quieter last year, maybe picked up a little more this year. We can see the growth now in a variety of categories. Interesting to see home equity beginning to grow and right in across time. Mortgage, a little more activity this past quarter, if you see our originations, so we had more there in resi mortgage. So we're looking to continue to see pickup in consumer activity broadly. And again, we're trying to drive more card balances. So that's really important for us. That remains the front of our strategy.

去年消費市場比較平靜，今年可能略有回升。現在我們可以看到各個領域的成長。有趣的是，可以看到房屋淨值隨著時間的推移開始增長，而且增長勢頭良好。抵押貸款方面，上個季度活動有所增加，如果你查看我們的貸款發放情況，你會發現住宅抵押貸款方面有所增加。因此，我們預期消費者活動將整體持續回升。我們再次強調，我們正在努力提高信用卡餘額。所以這對我們來說非常重要。這仍然是我們策略的核心。

Chris, on the rate cap, obviously, you're here -- there's a good public debate going out there on the -- if you have unintended consequences of capping rates as has been proposed over many years by various components in Congress and stuff like that. The explanation we've always made sure people understood is that the if you bring the caps down, you're going to get strict credit, meaning less people will get credit cards and the balance available to them on those credit cards will also be restricted.

克里斯，關於利率上限，顯然，你在這裡——公眾正在就利率上限問題展開激烈的辯論——如果你像國會各部門多年來提出的那樣，限制利率上限會產生意想不到的後果。我們一直向人們解釋，如果降低信用額度上限，就會實行嚴格的信貸管理，這意味著獲得信用卡的人會減少，而且他們信用卡上的可用餘額也會受到限制。

And so you have to balance that against what you're trying to achieve on the affordability. We're all in for affordability. You all know how we run our consumer business. It's the most fair to the consumer, and that's why we get good growth in high customer scores and those increasing. So we build a product to stop people from going to payday lenders. It's called Balance Assist. We've had 1 million -- 2.5 million to 2 million plus consumers have used that product to borrow a short-term loan for $500 or -- up to $500 for a $5 fee.

因此，你必須在價格可負擔性方面權衡這一點。我們都追求價格實惠。你們都知道我們是如何經營消費者事業的。這對消費者來說是最公平的，這就是為什麼我們的高客戶評分和不斷提高的客戶評分都能取得良好成長的原因。因此，我們開發了一款產品，旨在阻止人們向高利貸機構借錢。它叫做平衡輔助。已有 100 萬至 250 萬消費者使用該產品借入 500 美元的短期貸款，或支付 5 美元的手續費借入最高 500 美元。

We have a no-frills credit card with lower rate structure to it, and we've had [700,000] clients this year took that card. And so we believe in affordability. But if you -- with instruments that cap, you will see unintended consequence of that, and I think that's what you're seeing a debate going on is people are making our points to the various -- the administration and Congress and others involved.

我們有一張功能簡單的信用卡，利率結構較低，今年已有 70 萬客戶辦理了這張卡。因此，我們相信價格實惠。但是，如果你使用這種限制性的工具，你會看到意想不到的後果，我認為這就是你現在看到的爭論所在，人們正在向各方——政府、國會和其他相關方——表達我們的觀點。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

Glenn Schorr，Evercore。

Hi there. I think you brought up an interesting point getting people to focus on away from the nominal expense sales. And you obviously mentioned the less efficient revenues are growing good from Wealth and Capital Markets revenues. So my question is in a good backdrop like we're in, good economy, strong economy. Everybody's got a job, markets are doing well. If you take a step back, and you see flattish consumer deposits and down (inaudible) deposits, it's not what maybe you would have expected.

你好呀。我認為你提出了一個有趣的觀點，那就是讓人們關注的重點不再是名義上的支出銷售。而且您顯然也提到了效率較低的收入來源，其中財富管理和資本市場收入成長良好。所以我的問題是，在像我們現在這樣良好的經濟環境下，經濟狀況良好，經濟強勁。人人都有工作，市場行情良好。如果你退後一步，看到消費者存款持平，存款下降（聽不清楚），這可能與你的預期不符。

And that's not a you thing. That's an everybody thing. So I'm just wondering if you could address that, even with 680,000 new checking accounts, like why do you think we see this sluggishness in deposits? And do you think we'll see a turn at some point in '26? Because that would help the operating leverage story as well?

那跟你沒關係。這是每個人都會遇到的事。所以我想知道，即使新增了 68 萬個支票帳戶，您認為為什麼存款成長仍然如此緩慢？你認為2026年某個時候會出現轉機嗎？因為那樣也有助於說明經營槓桿效應？

Yes. So I think you have to think about what the consumer, especially in the -- even the wealthy consumer, they come to us for the transactional accounts and they come to us, whether they're savings money. And as market alternatives off-balance sheet alternatives, money market funds, et cetera, ran up in rates, you saw a fair amount of money move in that, especially in the wealth management business.

是的。所以我覺得你必須考慮消費者，尤其是──即使是富裕的消費者，他們來我們這裡是為了辦理交易帳戶，他們來我們這裡是為了存錢。隨著市場替代方案、表外替代方案、貨幣市場基金等的利率上升，你會看到相當多的資金流入這些領域，尤其是在財富管理產業。

What Alastair explained earlier is that's kind of all behind us now the consumer has been stable and and bumping along. The wealth management actually grew in the last part of the year. And so you're seeing it -- and these have settled into much higher levels than they were traditionally. So I think wealth management was maybe $200 billion before the pandemic, maybe $230 billion, something like that $240 billion maybe, and it's moved to $280 billion type of level. So you're seeing a lot more cash towards.

正如阿拉斯泰爾之前解釋的那樣，現在消費者已經穩定下來，一切都過去了。財富管理業務在下半年實際上實現了成長。所以你現在看到的是——這些數值已經穩定在比傳統水平高得多的水平。所以我認為，在疫情爆發前，財富管理規模可能在 2,000 億美元左右，也可能在 2,300 億美元左右，甚至可能在 2,400 億美元左右，而現在已經達到了 2,800 億美元的水平。所以你會看到更多的資金投入這方面。

So on the wealth side, it's people putting money into the off balance sheet yielding things because, frankly, we don't need the cash, as Alastair explained on some of the things and the early on the rates paid in CDs and things like that. And then secondly, it's actually the risk on trade of when the market. And on the general consumer side, what's happened is that they fine-tune some of the higher pieces. And a lot of the decline in balances that we experienced up until the last -- about a year ago, most of that decline was driven by wealthy consumers and our consumer franchise.

所以從財富的角度來看，人們把錢投入到資產負債表外的收益項目中，因為坦白說，我們並不需要現金，正如阿拉斯泰爾解釋的一些事情以及早期以定期存單等方式支付的利率一樣。其次，這實際上是市場交易時的風險。而對於一般消費者來說，他們則對一些高階產品進行了微調。直到大約一年前，我們所經歷的餘額下降，大部分都是由富裕消費者和我們的消費者特許經營權造成的。

In other words, the balances for the people had less than $10,000 average balance before the pandemic or that were multiples of what they were pre-pandemic and then have been stable for the last few years. But the people who had $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and average collective balance is pre-pandemic were down 20%.

換句話說，這些人的帳戶餘額在疫情爆發前平均低於 10,000 美元，或者已經是疫情爆發前的數倍，並且在過去的幾年裡一直保持穩定。但疫情前擁有 5 萬美元、10 萬美元、50 萬美元及平均集體餘額的人，其資產總額下降了 20%。

And with the percentage of total deposits there that drove it down on a relative basis, but again, that has stabilized. So we feel good where it's going. It's a lot of leverage. You have a consumer business, which has a 50% profit margin round numbers. And so it contributes to that. And if you go back and look historically, we have gotten that number down pretty far. And that has the biggest profit engine in the company is core to us driving that expense efficiency across the whole place.

而這部分存款佔總存款的比例也拉低了存款的相對水平，但目前存款水準已經穩定下來。所以我們對它的發展方向感到滿意。這是很大的籌碼。你的企業是消費品企業，利潤率大約是 50%。所以它對此有所貢獻。回顧歷史，我們已經將這個數字降到了相當低的水平。而這正是公司最大的獲利引擎，也是我們推動公司整體成本效率提升的核心。

Okay. I appreciate that, Brian. Maybe just a little more color on your comment on the IB pipeline looks good. There's moving parts in the fourth quarter, so I don't want to overemphasize the revenue environment. But maybe you could talk about the outlook, it's expected to be a pretty strong year.

好的。謝謝你，布萊恩。或許你對IB管道的評論可以再補充一些細節，這樣看起來會更好。第四季有很多變數，所以我不想過度強調營收環境。但或許你可以談談前景，預計今年會是相當強勁的一年。

The underlying conditions are pretty strong for cap markets activity. So my question is, do you feel like you've made enough investments to capture more than your fair share, pick up share? And do you expect as good as the year as I do.

股票市場活動的基本面相當強勁。所以我的問題是，你是否覺得你已經投入了足夠的資金，獲得了超過你應得的份額？你跟我一樣，也期待今年會更好嗎？

Well, I mean, I think we feel good about both of those. We feel good about the deal environment. Brian noted earlier, second half of the year, investment banking fees were 25% higher than the first half of the year, and that's largely based on more and more certainty around tax and trade and some of the things that really matter to and CFOs and Boards of Directors.

嗯，我的意思是，我覺得我們對這兩點都感到滿意。我們對當前的交易環境感到滿意。Brian 稍早指出，今年下半年投資銀行費用比上半年高出 25%，這主要是因為稅收和貿易以及一些對財務長和董事會真正重要的事項的確定性越來越高。

So we feel good about the investment banking environment. We feel good about our pipeline. And yes, on the second question, we feel good about our investments. So you know this, Glenn, but for the benefit of everyone, we've expanded our local banking presence around the United States to improve our client coverage.

所以我們對投資銀行業環境感到滿意。我們對我們的管道系統感到滿意。是的，關於第二個問題，我們對我們的投資感到滿意。格倫，你也知道這一點，但為了大家的利益，我們已經擴大了在美國各地的本地銀行業務，以提高客戶覆蓋範圍。

Today, we're in 24 different cities. We've got over 200 bankers in a group that really focus on middle-market clients. We've seen the benefit of that. We expect to see that continue as their relationships continue to grow. We're covering newer and emerging companies in things like technology and health care in a different way, earlier in their life cycle, and we're covering more clients internationally.

今天，我們的足跡遍佈24個不同的城市。我們團隊有 200 多名銀行家，專注於服務中端市場客戶。我們已經看到了這樣做的好處。我們預計隨著他們關係的不斷發展，這種情況還會持續下去。我們以不同的方式，在科技和醫療保健等領域的新興公司生命週期的早期階段就對其進行報道，並且我們正在覆蓋更多國際客戶。

So all of those places, we feel like are sorts of places that we should perform well. So yes, we feel good about that. And then I'd just say when you look at performance overall. Yes, we're at the top with some of the very largest transactions. So we feel like the franchise is in good shape.

所以，我們覺得所有這些地方都是我們應該好好表現的地方。是的，我們對此感到滿意。然後我想說的是，當你從整體表現來看的時候。是的，我們在一些最大的交易中名列前茅。所以我們認為這個系列的發展狀況良好。

Thanks Alison.

謝謝你，艾莉森。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my question. So wanted to ask Alastair -- so I wanted to ask on the GWIM targets that you had outlined at Investor Day. You saw some good momentum exiting the year. You outlined the 30% margin target with accelerating growth expectations on the organic side, but new recruitment does require some upfront investment. So I just wanted to understand what gives you confidence you can deliver both the acceleration in organic while still driving better operating leverage.

您好，早安，感謝您回答我的問題。所以我想問阿拉斯泰爾——我想問你在投資者日上概述的GWIM目標。年底時，我們看到了一些良好的發展動能。您概述了 30% 的利潤率目標，並預期有機成長方面會加速成長，但新員工的招募確實需要一些前期投資。所以我想知道是什麼讓你有信心既能實現有機成長加速，又能提高營運槓桿作用。

Yes. So I think if you were to ask Lindsay and Eric, they'd tell you, and if you ask (inaudible), they tell you that they enjoy significant competitive advantage as it relates to covering our clients. So obviously, we're in the wealth business, but we're also in the banking business. We have high tech and we have high touch. We are digital, but we're also local, and we offer scale.

是的。所以我覺得如果你去問林賽和艾瑞克，他們會告訴你，如果你問（聽不清楚），他們會告訴你，他們在服務我們的客戶方面享有顯著的競爭優勢。很顯然，我們從事財富管理業務，但我們也從事銀行業務。我們擁有高科技，也擁有人文關懷。我們既是數位化企業，也是本地企業，並且能夠提供規模化服務。

And then in terms of prospecting for wealthy families to add net new -- we've got consumer, business banking, commercial banking, corporate investment banking, all helping that group working together. So that franchise is one then that can deliver. And if you were to look at what -- if you were to look at, for example, competitive attrition this quarter, the lowest we've seen in years.

然後，在尋找富裕家庭以增加淨新增客戶方面——我們有消費者銀行、商業銀行、企業投資銀行，所有這些部門都在共同努力幫助這個群體。所以，這個特許經營項目是能夠獲利的。如果你看一下——例如，如果你看一下本季的競爭對手流失率，你會發現這是我們多年來看到的最低水準。

I think the Merrill FA see the value of our franchise and how they can help their own clients over a long period of time, and we're picking up the recruiting of experienced advisers. That isn't an enormous part of our strategy, but it's a training program so that we're training people in wealth management, Bank of America and Merrill and that is what that's ultimately what we believe we can just keep driving in order to improve the net new flows.

我認為美林金融顧問看到了我們特許經營的價值，以及他們如何能夠長期幫助他們的客戶，而我們正在招募經驗豐富的顧問。這雖然不是我們策略的主要部分，但這是一個培訓計劃，旨在培訓美國銀行和美林的財富管理人才，而這最終也是我們相信可以繼續推進的，以改善淨新增資金流入。

That's great. And then just one ticky-tack question on the tax rate. First off, thank you for implementing the accounting change. It certainly makes our lives much easier from a modeling standpoint. I know that it appeared at least in the 8-K that there was a small stub of tax advantage investments where you didn't adjust the treatment. So I wanted to just understand if that 20% tax rate is expected to hold going forward beyond 2026 or if there's any potential for very modest but still a little bit of upward drift as earnings continue to ramp?

那太棒了。最後還有一個關於稅率的小問題。首先，感謝您實施會計變更。從建模的角度來看，這無疑大大簡化了我們的工作。我知道至少在 8-K 表格中，似乎有一小塊稅收優惠投資沒有進行調整。所以我想了解的是，20%的稅率預計會一直維持到2026年以後，還是隨著獲利持續成長，稅率會有非常小幅但仍略有上升的趨勢？

For now, I'd use the 20% -- I mean, obviously, hence the guidance earlier. You're right, there are a small number of deals that don't qualify for the treatment. Now over time, all of those are going to burn down and burn off.

目前，我會使用 20% 這個比例——我的意思是，這很顯然，所以才有了先前的指導意見。你說得對，確實有少數交易不符合這種待遇。隨著時間的推移，所有這些都會燃燒殆盡。

And then in addition, you've got the question of whether or not some of the tax credit equity deals will end up expiring after 2027. So I think over a very long period of time, it's possible that the effective tax rate drifts up. But we'll be able to give you more guidance on that as we go through the various years.

此外，還有一個問題是，一些稅收抵免股權交易是否會在 2027 年後到期。所以我認為，從很長一段時間來看，實際稅率有可能逐漸上升。但隨著學年的推進，我們將能夠就此為您提供更多指導。

That's great. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

那太棒了。非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

Gerard Cassidy，RBC。

Can you guys share with us, as you know, the Genius Act was passed and there's a lot of talk about stablecoin deposits. I think they're now trying to figure out how to close a loop hole so that the stable coin deposits cannot pay interest. If they are not -- meaning Congress, if they're not successful in closing that loophole, what's kind of the impact that you guys are thinking that could happen from this trend in stablecoin deposits?

你們能跟我們分享一下嗎？正如你們所知，《天才法案》已經通過，現在有很多關於穩定幣存款的討論。我認為他們現在正試圖找出如何堵住漏洞，使穩定幣存款無法支付利息。如果他們──我是指國會──沒能成功堵上這個漏洞，你們認為穩定幣存款的這種趨勢會產生什麼樣的影響？

So I think I would not -- look, we'll be fine. We'll have the product. We'll meet customer demand, whatever may surface. And so I don't worry about it. But the point we've tried to make, and if you look at some studies, I think, were done by treasury is that they say you can see upwards of $6 trillion in deposits flow off the liabilities of a banking system to as the deposits into the stablecoin environment.

所以我覺得我不會——你看，我們會沒事的。我們會提供產品。無論出現什麼情況，我們都會滿足客戶的需求。所以我不擔心。但我們一直試圖表達的觀點，如果你看看一些研究，我認為，是財政部做的，那就是他們說你可以看到高達 6 兆美元的存款從銀行系統的負債流向穩定幣環境。

And the key of that is to think that the restrictions to be a stablecoin is basically think of it as a money market mutual fund concept that has to be invested in only deposits, banking Fed or treasuries in short term. And so when you think about that, that takes lending capacity out of the system.

關鍵在於要理解穩定幣的限制，基本上可以把它看作是貨幣市場共同基金的概念，它只能投資短期存款、銀行、聯準會或國債。所以仔細想想，這就會削弱系統的貸款能力。

And that is the bigger concern that we've all expressed to Congress as they think about this, is that if you move it outside the system, you'll reduce lending capacity of banks that particularly hurts small-, medium-sized businesses because they're largely lent to end consumers by the banking industry where capital markets-oriented companies go off into the market.

而這正是我們在國會考慮這個問題時所表達的更大擔憂：如果將其轉移到體系之外，將會降低銀行的貸款能力，這將尤其損害中小企業，因為它們主要透過銀行業向終端消費者放貸，而資本市場導向型公司則進入市場。

So I think in the end of the day at the margin, the industry gets loaned up. And if you take out deposits, they're not going to -- they're either not going to be able to loan or they're going to have to get wholesale funding and that wholesale funding will come at a cost that will increase the cost of borrowing. And so that's the issue that people have to struggle about.

所以我認為，歸根究底，從長遠來看，這個行業還是靠貸款撐起來的。如果你提取存款，他們要么就無法放貸，要么就必須獲得批發融資，而批發融資會增加借貸成本。所以，這就是人們需要努力解決的問題。

Do I think it affects the course of history of Bank of America, no, we'll be competitive and drive it. But I think in the industry overall, I think it's something that we've expressed concern as an industry, and we continue to make sure that they see those issues as they are trade groups and others as they work through the funnel legislation. What will come out of it? I don't know in terms of adjustments or thoughts about that and are working on as we speak.

我認為這會影響美國銀行的歷史進程嗎？不，我們會保持競爭力並引領它。但我認為，就整個行業而言，這是我們作為一個行業所表達的擔憂，我們將繼續確保貿易團體和其他機構在處理漏斗立法時看到這些問題。結果會如何？關於這方面的調整或想法，我目前還不清楚，但我們正在努力。

Very good. Thank you, Brian. And then just as a follow-up question. Obviously, you guys have presented a positive outlook for yourselves for 2026. The industry appears to be setting up very well with deregulation, steepening yield curve, healthy economic growth. Loan growth is picking up according to the H8 data.

非常好。謝謝你，布萊恩。然後，我還有一個後續問題。顯然，你們對2026年抱持著正面的展望。隨著放鬆管制、殖利率曲線陡峭化和健康的經濟成長，該行業似乎正在穩步發展。根據 H8 數據，貸款成長正在加速。

And as bank investors, we've learned to always look over our shoulder, but it seems like the worry now is there aren't many worries out there. Do you guys -- when you look at -- other than the geopolitical risk, of course, which is always a risk, what do you guys focus on just to keep an eye on in case something goes off the rails or something?

身為銀行投資者，我們已經學會了時時提防風險，但現在看來，令人擔憂的似乎恰恰是沒什麼好擔心的了。你們在考慮問題時，除了地緣政治風險（這當然始終是一個風險）之外，還會關注哪些方面，以防萬一出現什麼意外情況？

Yeah, it's so don't be a curmudgeon there, Gerard come on.

是啊，別那麼憤世嫉俗，傑拉德，拜託。

Agreed.

同意。

Yes, don't be a (inaudible) there, Gerard. At the end of the day, think about the structure. We are always doing stress tests that reflect a 50% decline in house prices and market declines and all that kind of stuff and we test ourselves every quarter. We have trading stresses run every day.

是的，別在那裡（聽不清楚），傑拉德。歸根結底，要考慮結構。我們一直在進行壓力測試，模擬房價下跌 50% 和市場下滑等情況，而且我們每季都會進行自我測試。我們每天都會進行交易壓力測試。

And so you're always trying to see, at the end of the day, whatever configuration of activities that produce as a result, the result that's going to reverberate into the global financial system and the US financial system and the US banking system is going to be the economy, right, in a recessionary environment, a high unemployment, those types of things.

因此，你總是試著看到，歸根究底，無論哪些活動組合會產生什麼結果，最終對全球金融體系、美國金融體系和美國銀行體系產生影響的，都將是經濟衰退、高失業率等等問題。

So what we do is we stress scenarios that produce those characteristics. But really, if you think about it, the stress test is going from where we are today up to 10%-plus unemployment, house prices are down, as I said, they don't -- the way the methodology doesn't really allow you to adjust your operating expenses, which we know we would adjust. And you can see the industry passive stress tests, and that's, I think, 1 of the most valuable things that came out of the regulation.

因此，我們所做的就是著重研究那些能夠產生這些特徵的情景。但實際上，如果你仔細想想，壓力測試是從我們目前的情況上升到 10% 以上的失業率，房價下跌，正如我所說，他們並沒有——這種方法實際上不允許你調整你的營運費用，而我們知道我們會調整這些費用。你可以看到產業被動壓力測試，我認為這是監管中最有價值的成果之一。

And our goal is to get those fine-tuned a little bit so they don't swing back and forth depending on who is supplying to test, but the reality is it's a good thing, and we all support that. So I think that's the way to measure it. Is there (inaudible) that you can outline you started rattling off and I could (inaudible) off, yes.

我們的目標是對這些指標進行一些微調，使其不會因測試樣本的提供者不同而出現波動，但實際上這是一件好事，我們都支持這一點。所以我認為這才是正確的衡量方法。有沒有什麼（聽不清楚）你可以概述一下你開始滔滔不絕地說，而我可以（聽不清楚）說，是的。

But you sat there and said last year at this time, those same dimensions were in place two years ago, three years ago, four years ago, but we just don't see what we see differently than this maybe three or four years ago is the momentum in the market -- the capital markets activity in the investment in AI and the consumer spending is 150 basis points higher than it was back then -- our customer base, the credit quality is -- we're running at 40 basis points level.

但你坐在那裡說，去年這個時候，同樣的情況也發生在兩年前、三年前、四年前，但我們現在看到的與三四年前不同的是，市場動能——資本市場活動、人工智慧投資和消費者支出比那時高出 150 個基點——我們的客戶群、信貸品質——我們目前處於 40 個基點的水平。

That's a level that is among the lowest in the history that we could find in a company going back 30, 50 years, these are good setups, but we're always worried about what could happen next as you say, and that's why we did the stress testing. That's why we have to balance. And effectively, that's why we drive responsible growth. We have a balance in lending. We're not overlent in any one industry.

這是公司過去 30 到 50 年裡我們所能找到的最低水平之一，這些都是很好的配置，但正如你所說，我們總是擔心接下來會發生什麼，這就是我們進行壓力測試的原因。所以我們需要保持平衡。實際上，這就是我們推行負責任成長的原因。我們的貸款餘額保持平衡。我們並未過度依賴任何一個產業。

We manage those things. We make sure that we take the credit risk. We don't have a lot of stored risk that the industry had leading the financial crisis, meeting CDOs and things like that. So the industry is in pretty good shape, yet there'll be something that will happen and we'll all have to adjust to it. Let's just hope it takes us longer the next year to happen.

這些事情我們負責處理。我們確保承擔信用風險。我們沒有像金融危機期間那樣，行業內普遍存在的大量風險，例如持有 CDO 之類的。所以，目前這個行業狀況相當不錯，但總是會發生一些事情，我們都必須適應。但願明年這種情況發生的時間能更久。

Yes. No, no, I totally agree with you.

是的。不，不，我完全同意你的看法。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

Thanks for taking my question and I wanted to follow up on credit. And I apologize if you addressed this in the prepared remarks, but it's been a busy morning. But your loan loss provisions and charge-offs have been particularly low in the last couple of quarters. And Brian, you just mentioned the 40 basis points being historically low. Wholesale also very low.

感謝您回答我的問題，我也想了解一下信用方面的問題。如果您在準備好的發言稿中已經提到了這一點，我深表歉意，但今天早上實在太忙了。但近幾個季度，你們的貸款損失準備金和核銷額都特別低。布萊恩，你剛才提到40個基點是歷史低點。批發價也很低。

I'm just curious your thoughts on whether you think we're at below trend levels of losses and in what categories? And is there a way to think about what more normalized levels of losses would be even in an economic environment that remains benign as we have now.

我只是好奇您認為我們目前的損失是否低於趨勢水平，以及具體在哪些類別中低於趨勢水平？即使在目前這種依然溫和的經濟環境下，有沒有辦法思考一下更正常的損失水準應該是多少？

Well, you're right, asset quality has performed quite well. You can see that in consumer. You can see that in commercial. At Investor Day, we gave an idea of what we thought through the cycle might be. I think we said at the time, 50 to 55 basis points.

沒錯，資產品質表現相當不錯。這一點在消費者身上就能看出來。你可以在廣告中看到這一點。在投資者日上，我們闡述了我們對本輪週期走勢的看法。我想我們當時說的是，50到55個基點。

So you can see right now the last two quarters, we were at 47 and 44 overall. So we're obviously happy to see that. We feel like we underwrite the right risk. We feel like we select the right clients. We feel like we've earned that and it happens to be a good environment right now. But maybe the 50% to 55% is the right number or through the cycle. No change to investment.

所以你可以看到，過去兩個季度，我們的總排名分別是 47 和 44。所以，我們當然很高興看到這一點。我們認為我們所承擔的風險是適當的。我們感覺我們選擇了合適的客戶。我們覺得這是我們應得的，而且現在的環境也很好。但或許 50% 到 55% 才是合適的數字，或者說，這是整個週期中合適的數字。投資計劃不變。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And I guess in consumer deposits, you expressed some optimism that you're seeing an inflection there and some acceleration. Just curious where you think the growth can get to?

好的。好的。那很有幫助。我猜想，在消費者存款方面，您表達了一些樂觀態度，認為您看到了轉折點和加速成長。我只是好奇你認為這種成長能達到什麼程度？

Do you think we can get to mid-single-digit types of growth in consumer deposits? And what are some of the variables that would drive that? Does it depend on additional rate cuts? And just kind of curious what you think a more normalized level of -- or not on a more normalized level of growth. But where do you think it could go to as rates come down and deposit growth starts to materialize?

你認為消費者存款的成長能達到個位數中段水準嗎？那麼，有哪些因素會影響這種情況呢？這取決於是否會進一步降息嗎？我只是有點好奇，你認為更正常的成長水平是什麼——或者說，不正常的成長水平是什麼。但隨著利率下降和存款成長開始顯現，你認為它會走向何方？

Well, look, Brian did a nice job of sort of setting the historical context. We've had an enormous pandemic bump followed by normalization back towards something that would be more just normal for consumers in terms of what they would have in their checking accounts. That has taken years. But what we're seeing right now, Saul, is if you look at the checking account balances, for example, they're up a couple of percent now year-over-year, not zero.

你看，布萊恩在介紹歷史背景方面做得很好。我們經歷了疫情帶來的巨大衝擊，隨後市場逐漸恢復正常，消費者的支票帳戶餘額也逐漸恢復到正常水準。這花了數年時間。但索爾，我們現在看到的是，例如，如果你看一下支票帳戶餘額，它們現在比去年同期增長了幾個百分點，而不是零。

So do I think it can go higher again next year? I believe we do. Historically, we might see consumer deposit growth at GDP to GDP plus type levels. Now that would put you in the sort of 4% to 5% type of range. Maybe we don't get all the way there this year, but we just come off a year where we added 3%. So we're obviously expecting and hoping for something slightly higher again in 2026 as we move to something more normal.

所以，你覺得明年它還能繼續漲嗎？我相信可以。從歷史角度來看，我們可能會看到消費者存款成長達到GDP水平，甚至達到GDP加上其他指標的水平。這樣一來，你的收益率就大概在 4% 到 5% 之間了。或許我們今年無法完全實現目標，但我們剛剛經歷了一個成長了 3% 的年份。因此，隨著我們逐漸恢復正常，我們顯然期待並希望 2026 年經濟能再次略有回升。

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions in queue. I will now turn the meeting back to Brian Moynihan.

謝謝。目前隊列中沒有其他問題了。現在我將把會議交還給布萊恩·莫伊尼漢。

Well, thank all of you for joining us. And just in summary, it was a good quarter and a good year, and I want to thank our team at Bank of America for producing it. We've laid out at Investor Day, that world-class franchise we have across all these businesses their performance continues to make good progress in '25, both on revenue profitability and returns.

謝謝各位的到來。總而言之，這是一個不錯的季度，也是不錯的一年，我要感謝美國銀行的團隊為此所做的貢獻。我們在投資者日上闡述了我們在所有這些業務中擁有的世界一流特許經營權，它們在 2025 年的業績繼續取得良好進展，無論是在收入、盈利能力還是回報方面。

The organic growth that I outlined earlier remains strong. The credit is very stable and very good quality. And we continue to manage head count and expense as we talked about to drive operating leverage. So thank you. We look forward to talking to you next quarter.

我之前提到的有機成長依然強勁。信用狀況非常穩定，品質也非常好。正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們將繼續控制人員數量和支出，以提高營運槓桿。所以，謝謝你。我們期待下個季度與您再次洽談。

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您抽空參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。